This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Seattle is off to a 3-0 start, led by a defense that is allowing 3.9 yppl which is lowest in the NFL and it is No. 3 in Defensive EPA. The Seahawks have benefited from playing a schedule that is ranked No. 31 which has played a big part of that defensive success as is the fact they have faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. Those three quarterbacks have led offenses ranked No. 26, No. 24 and No. 29 in Offensive EPA respectively so they have not been tested which changes this week. The Seattle offense is averaging 24.3 ppg which is tied for No. 8 but like the other side, they have not faced a good defense as the three opponents are ranked No. 19 or worse in EPA and they will be facing their toughest defense thus far. Detroit is coming off a win over Arizona to improve to 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Tampa Bay two weeks ago despite outgaining the Buccaneers by 246 total yards. The Lions managed only 16 points but put up 463 yards of offense so the production was there, just not the scoring which has been an issue. The Lions have been a disappointment of offense this season as they are averaging 20.7 ppg overall and 18.6 ppg in regulation and they are ranked No. 13 in Offensive EPA. The difference between Detroit and the three teams the Seahawks have played is that the Lions have the potential, they just have not gotten it together quite yet. They averaged 28.7 ppg last season so they will be just fine. On the other side, the Lions are ranked No. 10 in Defensive EPA while allowing 17.7 ppg which is No. 9. This is a historically bad spot for the Seahawks as we play against teams that are 3-0 and playing as road underdogs as these teams are just 3-13 ATS over the last 15 years. This includes a 28-point loss by Miami against Buffalo last season and Minnesota and Buffalo pending this Sunday. 10* (292) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Bills are off to a 3-0 start and are looking dominant in doing so but they have faced a schedule ranked No. 23 and the spots in the schedule have also been in their favor. They opened at home against the Cardinals and needed a big second half and a late stop to win, they were outgained by Miami 351-247 and got a nice break going from a Thursday night to a Monday night against Jacksonville. Taking nothing away from Buffalo, this is a very strong team that is currently behind Kansas City in Super Bowl odds at +750 after opening +1,500 but now comes a test. Baltimore opened the season with a loss in Kansas city that was a toe away from overtime and then the Ravens allowed the Raiders, the same Raiders that were blown out by Carolina last week, to stage a late comeback and then nearly let the Cowboys do the same last week. They ran all over Dallas and are tied for No. 1 in Rushing EPA as they finally utilized Derrick Henry to his ability and paired with Lamar Jackson, this is a tough offense to stop. Buffalo is ahead of only Dallas in Defensive Rushing EPA. Admittedly, the Ravens defense has slipped looking at their metrics but their first half and second half defenses are polar opposites and those prevent styles the last two games with having big leads has to stop and it almost results in a second straight implosion. One of the most widely known recent situations is Lamar Jackson is now 23-7 ATS then not favored by three or more points as an underdog following another cover last week. 10* (288) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Saints suffered their first loss of the season as they fell to Philadelphia 15-12 as they allowed two Saquon Barkley touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the second with 1:01 remaining to seal the win for the Eagles. While it was only a three-point loss, the Saints were outgained 460-219 by the Eagles so we have a skewed final score that should have been a lot worse but it was Philadelphia that kept kicking itself in the foot. New Orleans is turning into a public team as the early money is on New Orleans again but the first two victories are not worth much as Carolina was a disaster through two weeks and we saw Dallas get gashed again last week. Injuries along the offensive line will be a factor this week. The Falcons have injuries along the offensive line as well which hurt them last week they were in position to defeat the Chiefs and at least be given an opportunity late but a missed pass interference call benefitted Kansas City once again. Atlanta is now 1-2 with the lone win coming against the Eagles on a last minute drive so the last two games have come down to the wire. After a rough first game for Kirk Cousins, partly coming back from injury and also a vanilla game plan, he has looked a lot more comfortable the last two games. The Falcons are favored again for the first time since the opener with a reverse line move as the number has gone up from -1 since the opener but is still under the key number of three as of Thursday. 10* (264) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Scoring is down in the NFL this season and through three weeks, there are nine teams averaging 17 ppg or fewer and taking out the Steelers, the other eight teams are a combined 6-18, none of which have a winning record so the 3-0 Steelers are an outlier. Pittsburgh is undefeated because of its defense as it is allowing a league low 8.7 ppg, giving up no more than 10 points in any game. While impressive, the opposition has played a role as the Steelers caught Kirk Cousins in his first game back from an Achilles injury, rookie Bo Nix in his second NFL game and Justin Herbert having to leave because of an ankle injury. The Steelers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games when favored on the road against teams with a losing record. The Colts picked up their first win of the season as they defeated the Bears 21-16 despite getting outgained 395-306 as they took advantage of three Chicago turnovers. Typically, we stay away from winning teams that were outgained but the fade from the other side is too strong and the fact Indianapolis remains home making this is a good opportunity for an offense to finally get to the Steelers defense. Anthony Richardson has been far from clean as his last two games have seen passer ratings of 41.8 and 39.0 but there have been flashes and we are starting to see the old version of Jonathan Taylor emerge. The defense has looked good enough to contain Justin Fields, who has been efficient but has yet to have to make plays when needed in clutch time. 10* (266) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville is coming off an absolutely awful performance at Buffalo on Monday night to fall to 0-3 and will likely be one of the least publicly bet teams in Week Four. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost eight straight starts and is 20-33 in his career with an 84.5 passer rating. And we are on him to bounce back. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, they just ran into a buzzsaw last week and teams that lost by 35 or more points as underdogs of four or more points are 50-19-2 ATS. Houston has not been impressive in its 2-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by. Many are expecting a bounce back from Houston and the linemakers are predicting the market and have moved with it with what is now an absurd number. This is an interesting line move as it opened at 4.5, which is the same amount the Jaguars were getting in Buffalo and now it has risen to 6.5. So the move is saying the Texans are the same team as the Bills at this point in the season? Absolutely not. Also the move is based on the horrible Jacksonville performance at Buffalo but there is no reaction to the horrible Houston performance in Minnesota so the guess is we can only call it a half overreaction. 10* (267) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Chicago was anointed NFC North Champions by many before the season started and it is fortunate to be 1-2 as it opened the season with a win over Tennessee, a bottom five teams in the league, needing to overcome a 17-0 deficit to win 24-7 with two of the Bears touchdowns via punt return and interception return. We are not counting them out however as they showed life last week by outgaining the Colts 395-306 but were hurt by three turnovers including a pair of bad passes from Caleb Williams. Despite the two interceptions, he posted his highest passer rating and while it was not spectacular, it showed improvement as he threw for 363 yards and tossed his first two touchdowns. There is still more room for improvement and heading back home against the second worst defense in EPA can do that. The Rams are coming off an improbable win last week over the 49ers, coming back from three separate double-digit deficits. It was the first win for Los Angeles as it bounced back from a throttling in Arizona which came after an overtime loss against the Lions, a game obviously that could have gone either way. That was when the Rams were healthy however as they are riddled with injuries with the two top receivers still out as well as two offensive guards. Kyren Williams carried the Rams with the last three touchdowns but he rushed for just 3.7 ypg so whoever says he went off, he did not unless referring to fantasy. The defense again lets them down. 10* (274) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the WASHINGTON ST. COUGARS for our CFB Late Night Powerhouse. We played against Washington St. last week as it failed to cover the big number against San Jose St. in a 54-52 win in overtime and we based that play partially due to a letdown coming off a win over Washington in the Apple Cup. There will be no letdown from the win over the Spartans as that served more as a motivator to get their act together. The Cougars are 4-0 thanks to a potent offense that is No. 10 overall and No. 13 in scoring and while the defense leaves a lot to be desired, their one big liability cannot be taken advantage of here as their passing defense will not be challenged. This is another game where we have an inflated line based on the love of the home team and field. Boise St. is 2-1 as it opened with a pair of road games which it split. The Broncos defeated Georgia Southern but they did not look good in doing so as they won 56-45 and then followed that up with a loss against Oregon 37-34. They rolled over Portland St. last week coming out the bye but we cannot take much from that and the defense has been lit up in its two FBS games despite being an experienced unit that brought back 11 starters. But that same unit allowed 25.6 ppg on 385 ypg last season so there may be no improvement and they will be facing an offense that is balanced at No. 22 in both passing and rushing and will be in another vulnerable spot here. 10* (161) Washington St. Cougars

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. 0-3 Florida St. got off the mat to win its first game of the season and moved to 1-2 in the ACC with a 14-9 win over California. The offense did nothing for a fourth straight game but that should change here as there first four games have all been against defenses better than what they are going to see here. The Seminoles defense is just fine even though the numbers really do not show it because the offense has put it in some bad spots. To no surprise, the huge majority of the money is on SMU but we have actually seen the line decrease slightly. Out two sets of power ranking have the Seminoles as 2 and 1.5-point underdogs so this is a skewed number based on nobody will be taking Florida St. SMU is coming off a 66-42 romp over TCU in the Iron Skillet and that is also playing in this number. Now that victory could normally lead to a letdown but we are not banking on that here based on the fact of who their opponent is and that this is their inaugural ACC game. That being said, this is by far the most athletic team they have faced and overall, the Mustangs have played a schedule ranked No. 83 compared to a schedule rank of No. 15 for Florida St. SMU has a very average defense and that is with playing a game against Houston Christian of the FCS where it allowed only seven points and 157 total yards. A lot of emotions in Dallas will not be enough to get it done here. 10* (147) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Texas Tech is off to a 3-1 start following a pair of solid wins over North Texas and Arizona St. and now it remains in Lubbock for its third straight home game. It opened the season with a 52-51 win over Abilene Christian and while that was a concern seeing they were 31.5-point favorites, that was the opener and in the past. They lost to Washington St. following week even though the Red Raiders outgained Washington St. in that loss but they were hurt by four turnovers and that is always a dagger. The offense is rolling behind quarterback Behren Morton who has already thrown for 1,175 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions and he is a quarterback Cincinnati has not seen yet. The Bearcats are also 3-1 and really should be 4-0 as they blew a huge lead against Pittsburgh in a 28-27 loss but they have rebounded with a pair of big wins. Cincinnati took out rival Miami before shutting out Houston last week 34-0 and teams coming off shutouts tend to be good fades next time out especially when facing a potent offense. They have already matched their win total from last season overall and in the Big 12 but now comes the tough night road game and they are No. 89 in total defense even with the shutout last week. This is another game where we are seeing a reverse line move as Cincinnati is taking 70 percent of the money yet the line has come down and we love that reverse line movement. 10* (154) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our AAC Game of the Year. North Texas is 3-1 with the one loss being a bad one at Texas Tech as the defense could not contain the Red Raiders passing attack but it will not have to worry about that here. The Mean Green have advantaged in all four facets here, the rushing and passing offenses and defenses and it really is not close which means this could get ugly and we only have to lay less than a touchdown. They are No. 11 in Rushing Explosiveness which compliments quarterback Chandler Morris who has been explosive, throwing for over 300 yards in three of his four games so this is a balanced attack that is ranked No. 16 overall and No. 24 in points scored. Their defense is not good but it rates higher than what Tulsa bring in on offense. Tulsa is off to a 2-2 start as it opened with a win over Northwestern St. and most recently picked up a road win at Louisiana Tech but the Bulldogs are not a good team and it took overtime in the 23-20 victory. While they did only allow 20 points, this defense is not very good in both aspects. The Golden Hurricane come in ranked No. 104 in Rushing Explosiveness and on the passing side, they are No. 120 in Passing Success Rate and No. 126 in EPA so they can get lit up both ways. Offensively, Tulsa is better but far below average as they are outside the top 90 in Passing Success Rate and Rushing Success Rate so they cannot take advantage of a somewhat skewed North Texas defense. 10* (184) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Ball St. opened the season with a win over Missouri St. but it has lost its last two, getting blown out at Miami and coming up just short at Central Michigan last week 37-34. The Cardinals venture back out on the road for a third straight road game but that will not be a deterrent here as the situation sets up great. They will be a big public fade based on the fact their defense is one of the worst in the country, with the Miami loss skewing that because of the 62 points and 750 yards allowed, and the fact James Madison hung 70 points on North Carolina last week. Ball St. has been solid on offense in the other two game with quarterback Kadin Semonza putting up solid numbers. The Dukes gave it to the Tar Heels as they put up 53 points in the first half while putting up over 600 yards of total offense overall and it could have been even more if not for 12 penalties for 105 yards. While it was not a rivalry, it was a massive victory over a Power 4 team, their biggest ever, and that presents a letdown opportunity to go against them. The line has taken that into consideration and it has already gone up and is now pushing three touchdowns in some places on Tuesday. The first two James Madison wins were not impressive as it beat a horrible Charlotte team by 23 points and defeated Gardner Webb of the FCS by only one touchdown. Great spot with the overreaction value. 10* (125) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. This is a great go against spot with Boston College coming over its win against Michigan St. in the Red Bandana Game, an annual contest to honor to honor 911 hero Welles Crowther. The Eagles improved to 3-1 with the only loss coming against Missouri by six points which at the time looked like a good loss until Missouri got taken to overtime by Vanderbilt last week. The Boston College secondary once again got exposed, and would have had even worse if Michigan St. did not miss many open throws and they can get lit up in this matchup. Coming off that night win now playing a noon game against a non-power conference will not have them too excited. Western Kentucky is also 3-1 following an upset win over Toledo last week by five points and that could normally be a letdown situation, not in this case playing a Power 4 team. The Hilltoppers only loss came at Alabama 63-0 to open the season but they got their paycheck so we can throw that one out. This is a great game to keep momentum rolling before getting back into C-USA action where they are already 1-0 after a win over UTEP. Even with the Alabama game being factored in where they passed for only 103 yards, the Hilltoppers are No. 20 in the country in passing offense and their 358 ypg in the other three games would have them No. 4 in the country. Live backdoor dog if needed. 10* (143) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. This is a great buy low/sell high spot with two teams seemingly heading in opposite directions but the line is not telling us that. Navy is coming off a blowout win over Memphis 56-44 at home as it ran all over the Tigers. That was a big motivational game as the Midshipmen felt disrespected as they were getting nine points at home and they certainly proved they should not have been. That gives us the letdown and now they head out on the road for the first time this season. We couple that with the fact they are at Air Force next week in the first leg of the Commander In Chief Trophy so there is the lookahead and this is the perfect situation to sell high coming off that big win with a bigger game on deck. UAB opened the season with an expected blowout win over Alcorn St. but then suffered an inexcusable loss at UL Monroe by 26 points as an 11.5-point favorite. The Blazers did follow that up with a solid performance at Arkansas as they lost by only 10 points as a 22-point underdog. This is where the situation gets even better as they rolled into their bye week following a pair of road losses to think about those for a while and also getting an extra week to prepare for the Navy running game. Offensively, quarterback Jacob Zeno has been efficient with the exception of that bad game against UL Monroe. 79 percent of the money is on Navy because people are thinking this line is too short yet it has not budged. 10* (166) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Michigan is coming off a huge home win over USC that was one of the most anticipated home games in a long time not counting Ohio St. as those teams had never met in the Big House and the Wolverines scored the winning touchdown with less than a minute left to send the Trojans home with a loss in their first ever Big 10 game. Michigan suffered a loss to Texas in its second game and followed that up with a lethargic win over Arkansas St. which was a letdown/lookahead spot and now the Wolverines are in a similar situation off that USC win and then its first road game at Washington on deck in a rematch of the National Championship game last season. Minnesota is now 2-2 following a 31-14 loss against Iowa last week as it squandered a 14-7 halftime lead. The Gophers were coming off back-to-back shutouts albeit against Rhode Island of the FCS and Nevada. Still, those were define building performances no matter who it is and it catches Michigan in a great spot against a team the Gophers have had little success against. Many will consider this line short but it has actually come down as it was up in the 11-12 range for a short time and the power ranking numbers feel this number is just about right. That does not give us much value but this is all about the spot and this is a game the Gophers can hang around against a distracted Michigan team. 10* (195) Minnesota Golden Gophers

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Baylor comes in at 2-2 following that improbable loss to Colorado last week and we do not think the Bears will be hanging their heads with an undefeated team coming to town while already sitting 0-1 in the Big 12 Conference. It was a game in awful conditions and it dropped them to 0-2 on the road, the other loss coming at Utah which looks to be the team to beat in the conference unless you want to lump in BYU which we are not. Baylor was shut down on offense against the Utes but it has been solid outside of that but more impressive is the defense as the Bears are No. 28 overall and No. 33 in points allowed and this against a solid schedule ranked No. 36. They will be questioned why they are favored but it is for a reason and this is another where all of the money is on the Cougars and the line has not moved. BYU is coming off a blowout win at home over Kansas St. but it was outgained by over 120 yards so it was a skewed final score as the Cougars used a fumble return for a touchdown as well as a punt return score that was one of the best you will ever see. They opened the season with a win over Southern Illinois of the FCS and the other two wins were nothing special, one against SMU which changed quarterbacks early in the game and the other against a bad Wyoming team. The defense will be tested on the road more than it has in the first two games away from home. 10* (172) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Washington was able to bounce back from its loss in the Apple Cup against Washington St. as it defeated Northwestern 24-5 on Saturday for its inaugural Big 10 Conference victory. The Huskies caught a break as the Wildcats were without running back Cam Porter and they were held to only 59 yards rushing and just 112 total yards. Now Washington, which is 3-1, heads out of Seattle for the first time this season to play its first conference road game and this is just a tough spot travelling all the way to the east coast on a short week. They have held their own after losing so much from the playoff team of last season and while Washington St. has been its toughest opponent thus far, Rutgers is right there, just a half-point behind the Cougars in the power ratings. The Scarlet Knights are off to a 3-0 start following a 26-23 win over Virginia Tech on Saturday and they head back home for their conference opener. The three-point Rutgers win was decent but it could have been a lot better. It had a turnover inside the five-yard line, turned it over on fourth down at the one yard line and missed a pair of field goals and it outgained the Hokies 422-320 and the mistakes helped squander a 16-point lead. The Scarlet Knights have taken 93 percent of the money yet the line has not moved and has actually come down in some places. This is a great spot for Rutgers to get this big name at home on a Friday night. 10* (108) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. As dysfunctional as Dallas has looked the last two weeks, this is a spot it thrives in and will bounce back after a pair of ugly home losses. The Cowboys were destroyed by New Orleans two weeks ago and were behind 28-6 in the fourth quarter last week against Baltimore before trying to make a miracle comeback all after opening the season with a win of what we know now is a bad Cleveland team. This fits what Dallas did last season as well, roll over the bad teams and lose to the good teams. The Cowboys did lose to Arizona early in the season but in their other eight games against non-playoff teams, they won all of those by an average of 27 ppg. This is the perfect opponent to get right, at least for now. The Giants are coming off their first win of the season as they overcame a 7-0 deficit in the first 11 seconds to defeat the Browns 21-15. They opened the season with losses against Minnesota and Washington with the former not looking as bad now and to their credit, there has been progress. However, they have not faced a decent quarterback the last two games and while Dak Prescott does not have a ton around him this year, he will be able to take apart a poor Giants secondary. He has thrived in these spots as well, going 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) as a divisional favorite. The defense has fallen to No. 27 in EPA but will be able to pressure Daniel Jones through a bad offensive line. The Cowboys make it 14 wins in the last 15 meetings. 10* (101) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Army is coming off a win over Rice which is an awful team with its other two losses coming against Sam Houston St. and a bad Houston team and the Black Knights are now 3-0. Their other two wins have been against Lehigh of the FCS and Florida Atlantic which just got destroyed by Connecticut and while they are playing another bad team here, the line has been overadjusted. Army was favored at home by 7.5 over Rice and now it is favored by 13.5 points on the road and the power ranking difference between Rice and Temple is only six points. Overall, Army has played a schedule ranked No. 174 and while this game will not make it any stronger, it is about value and overreactions. Temple is off to a 1-3 start and it coming off its first win of the season over Utah St. at home 45-29 and the offense has now improved in each of its last four games. Part of the reason for the offensive resurgence has coincided with Evan Simon taking over quarterback and he had his coming out game against the Aggies as he threw for 271 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Owls have played a schedule ranked No. 49 as its opened with road games at Oklahoma and undefeated Navy and those have skewed some of the numbers. They are going to have to deal with the Army rushing game that has gone off but had its worst game against Rice, the equivalent of the Temple rushing defense. 10* (104) Temple Owls

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Like a number of teams this week, the Bengals are in desperation mode to avoid a 0-3 start which makes it nearly impossible to make the postseason. Of the 168 teams that started 0-3 between 1990-2023, only four have managed to get into the postseason and Cincinnati has been here before being one of the slowest starting teams in recent years. Including this season, the Bengals are 1-11 over the last six years in their first two games, the only win coming in 2021 against Minnesota. They have won their last three Game Three games and they are in a good spot playing on Monday night as 0-2 teams playing at home on Monday night cover at a 71 percent clip. Washington picked up its first win of the season under quarterback Jaylen Daniels with a 21-18 win over the Giants, needing a field goal as time expired for the victory. That was the story the whole game however as the Commanders had to settle for seven field goals as they finished 0-6 from the redzone and that is not ideal here against a solid redzone defense as the Bengals have held their first two opponents 2-6 inside the redzone. This game has blowout written all over it and that will be the popular public play. We saw some early line movement as this number went to 8-8.5 on Monday but came back to 7.5 on Tuesday and has remained steady despite over 80 percent of the money being on Cincinnati. The Bengals will likely get a lot of public money on Monday so it is wise to get the 7-7.5 now. 10* (480) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta was a big disappointment in Week One against Pittsburgh, namely the offense that managed only 10 points, and last week against Philadelphia, the offense had just 15 points going into the final minute so that is a concern but this is the spot for it to come around. However, what did change was play calling as Kirk Cousins looked a lot more comfortable and the Falcons actually finished with the No. 5 Success Rate last week of all teams. One reason to like the Falcons offense in this spot as they go up against a Kansas City defense that is ranked No. 30 in Defensive rushing EPA and their secondary is not what it used to be as well. The Chiefs have escaped twice and this is not going to keep happening. They are coming off two emotional wins over AFC rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati and now have to travel for the first time in what is going to be a crazy environment. Patrick Mahomes struggled last week with an 80.6 passer rating and on the season, he has three touchdowns and three interceptions. Not exactly Mahomes-like. While the Atlanta defense has been a liability for a few years, what has been good this season has been that defense even though the metrics do not show it in EPA or DVOA. They do enough again to pull the upset as underdogs. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. Detroit is one of a few teams that are looking to bounce back from losses despite being the better team. The Lions outgained Tampa Bay by 246 yards but they were surprisingly horrible in the rezone and quarterback Jared Goff had a bad game. He has been one of the best bounce back quarterbacks in recent games as he rarely puts up consecutive poor passer ratings. This is one of the rare non-dome games for the Lions and they are known for not performing as well on grass but we are not buying that in this spot, especially at this number that has come down below a key number as people are buying into the Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a blowout win over the Rams but it was facing a team ravaged with injuries already this early into the season. The Cardinals opened with a loss in Buffalo but it was close through as they actually blew a significant lead and had their chances late to pull it out even though they averaged only 4.8 yppl. That close loss to the Bills is also playing into the line and the line move as they are 2-0 against the number. Kyler Murray looked great last week but will be facing a much better defense as they will not be putting up 489 yards again this week. This is a good buy low spot based on the early overreactions which we get every season. 10* (469) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. Two desperate teams square off here with the Ravens being in the more desperate spot. They are 0-2 despite having chances to win both games late yet they have not covered which puts them in that rare situation where they have the No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL and have outgained both opponents and by an average of 111 ypg. These are the spots quarterback Lamar Jackson thrives in as he has dominated the NFC and is a crazy 15-2-1 ATS when he is not favored by more than a field goal. He faces a Dallas defense that was gashed for 432 yards last week and while he will have a great day, getting Derrick Henry more involved will be a benefit as well. The Cowboys have had one of the top rosters over the last few seasons but that is clearly not the case this season. They do have stars on both sides of the ball but it thins out considerably and we can lump Dak Prescott into that as well as he has produced passer ratings of 85.3 and 78.3 this season and will be facing a Baltimore defense that is No. 22 is Defensive EPA so they will be out to get right and will be playing with extreme intensity in this high profile spot but more do to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Dallas has no running game, averaging just 3.7 ypc while the offense as a whole has put up only three touchdowns through its first two games. 10* (471) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Bryce Young experiment is over in Carolina and because of that, we will be riding the Panthers as they now have a competent quarterback under center. We excused Young for his performance Week One but he was nearly as bad last week and head coach Dave Canales saw enough with a chance to possibly still save the season. Andy Daulton is not going to put a lot of scares in opposing defenses but he has been more than capable in the last two seasons in New Orleans and here where he has thrown for 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The team as a whole is going to step up because it was doubtful anyone believed in Young and a chance to improve gives them more motivation. The Raiders are coming off the big upset win over Baltimore to improve to 1-1 and are now in Las Vegas for their home opener but how serious can they take this team coming in. Las Vegas was outgained in both games including getting outyarded by 123 yards last week. We are not comparing Baltimore and Carolina we are seeing a 15-point swing and covering a big number is something the Raiders co with their offense. Gardner Minshew has looked good with close to identical games of 95.1 and 94.7 ratings but the Raiders are ranked No. 29 in Offensive EPA and backing a team that low is bad news. 10* (465) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Tampa Bay was outgained by 246 yards last week and was still able to beat Detroit to move to 2-0. The Lions kicked themselves in the foot numerous times in coming off a rare loss when you outgained your opponent by nearly 250 yards. The Buccaneers dominated their first game at home against Washington with a rookie quarterback and now catch another rookie quarterback at home but they are getting too much credit here as they are favored by 2.5 points more against Bo Nix and they were against Jaylen Daniels. They were near the top of the Luck Rankings last season and seem to be heading that way again but their luck will eventually run out. Nix has no doubt struggled but Denver has been competitive in both games, losing the two by one possession each. He did look better last week despite a pair of interceptions and ended up with 246 yards against a very good defense. He will now be facing a defense that is already banged up so he will catch a break here. Speaking of Luck Rankings, Denver is the unluckiest team to start the season, albeit a short sample size. As of Saturday, the majority of the money is on the Buccaneers yet the line has actually come down in some places and always love being on the side of a reverse line move when the public is all over the side. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our MWC Game of the Year. New Mexico is off to a 0-3 start and is in the argument for being the worst FBS team which we knew coming into the season it would be in the running. Only three starters are back on offense which is not good considering they averaged 27.3 ppg, their most since 2016 and they more than doubled their output from 2022. Devon Dampier took over at quarterback and he has been adequate but not close to being able to pick up the slack for a horrible defense. The Lobos are also working in an entirely new offensive line. The defense is dead last in total yards and rushing yards and second last in points allowed so this is the ideal spot for a Fresno St. offense to get going as it has shown some struggles. Quarterback Mikey Keene has had a slow start to the season as he has only five touchdowns and four interceptions as his efficiency has not been great. Running back Malik Sherrod is also off to a slow start as he is only averaging 3.7 ypc. Take note that these two players are both First or Second Team All-MWC. The Bulldogs have been solid on defense but a lot of that is due to the competition which of course does not get any better here. They are No. 39 in total defense, allowing fewer than 300 ypg and we just cannot see New Mexico getting anything going similar to how the Bulldogs shut down New Mexico St. last week. 10* (351) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Florida Atlantic finally got into the win column and we think it can build from that. It was a rough start for Florida Atlantic which was expected to turn things around following four straight losing seasons but there is still plenty of time and it started last week in the 38-20 win over FIU. The Owls had their chances at Michigan St. but lost a tough six-point game and last week was even worse as they got crushed by the Army rushing game, allowing 405 yards on the ground with the offense being able to do nothing once again. That offense got going last week while the defense did its job similar to the Michigan St. team and they now face another poor offense. The Owls have struggled to generate havoc but they are allowing just three points per opportunity. Connecticut lost to Duke last week to fall to 1-2 with their only win coming against Merrimack of the FCS and now the Huskies go from a 17-point underdog to a favorite. The venue change is obviously factored into that but this is too much of an adjustment. The Huskies have used balanced play calling which is not a good thing in this case as they have completed only 51.1 percent of their passes for an average of 7.8 yards per attempt and a 47 percent passing success rate. Defensively Connecticut has been adequate but that game against Merrimack is skewing those numbers after allowing 50 points to Maryland in their opener. 10* (401) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Liberty is off to a 3-0 start but has not looked great in doing so as it has failed to cover in any of the three games with a lot of that due to early line inflation because of the expectations coming into the season. Now because of the winless ATS Streak, we are seeing an opening line adjustment the other way and in the process, we have a reverse line move with 71 percent of the money on East Carolina but the line has gone up. The schedule has been light for Liberty and that is partially the reason for the winless cover start as Liberty has been favored by 22 or more points in each games and we are seeing that crash down. The Flames have won a program record 15 straight regular season games following the win over UTEP last week. East Carolina is coming off their first loss of the season and it was a tough one it fell to Appalachian St. 21-19 after blowing a 16-0 first quarter lead and that will be a tough one to recover from. The Pirates won their only road game at Old Dominion by that was by just six points against a pretty poor Monarchs team. Turnovers have been a big issue for East Carolina as quarterback Jake Garcia has thrown eight interceptions to just five touchdowns while completing under 65 percent of his passes and the Pirates have 12 turnovers overall. Even though Liberty is 3-0, there is too much of an overreaction with this number. 10* (400) Liberty Flames

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Memphis coming off a big win over Florida St. last week and while that would have looked like a huge upset coming into the season, it is safe to say that the Seminoles are a bad football team. Still, coming off a big road win over a Power 4 team present the letdown aspect and now having to hit the road again. The line is inflated because of the win and the fact the Tigers are 3-0 against the number with the other two wins coming against North Alabama of the FCS and Troy which is in a rebuilding season having lost a huge amount of starters and its head coach. Navy is 2-0 but has hardly been tested with wins over Bucknell and Temple. The Midshipmen are coming off a bye week and have yet to leave Annapolis which is a big early season travel edge. This is an experienced Navy team with 14 starters back and while they have not played a tough schedule, they have gone back to their roots of a potent rushing game as they have averaged 280.5 ypg after struggling last season with 194.6 ypg which was the worst since 2001. The defense was outmatched against Notre Dame, USF and SMU last season but held its own outside of those games, finishing No. 47 in total defense and No. 39 in scoring defense and has seven starters back with the back end being the strength which is big in this matchup. 10* (398) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Florida is off to a 1-2 start with head coach Billy Napier squarely on the hot seat and this is surely a must win contest. The Gators are coming off a loss against Texas A&M where they fell behind 20-0 and could not recover but they have a great matchup here which looks to be decided by the running game. They had only 52 rushing yards against the Aggies which have a decent rushing defense and they catch a big break here. Mississippi St. is allowing 213.7 ypg on the ground which is No. 121 in the country and that is with playing Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. The Bulldogs allowed 346 yards against Arizona St. and 169 yards against Toledo where they lost by 24 points as a double digit favorite and the line has moved accordingly despite the Florida struggles. On the other side, Mississippi St. is No. 113 in rushing offense with 97.7 ypg, one of only seven major conference teams that are averaging fewer than 100 ypg on the ground. The Bulldogs do have a quarterback edge looking at the early numbers but they have not been able to translate that into better production. Mississippi St. is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog when coming off a double-digit loss and with both teams in desperation mode, we favor the team with the better roster and big edges at the line of scrimmage. 10* (391) Florida Gators

This is a play on the SAN JOSE ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Washington St. is coming off a big win last week in the Apple Cup which was a huge motivational game and it now sets up the letdown spot. This situation has not treated the Cougars well in the recent past as they have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six games coming off Washington and they have another rival on deck going up against Boise St. The Cougars are ranked No. 80 in Rushing Success Rate and No. 60 in Passing Success Rate so despite the 3-0 start, they have not looked great on offense and this is with putting up 70 points against Portland St. We cannot be sold on this offense to try and over a big number playing a confident team. San Jose St. also comes in undefeated at 3-0 following a win over Air Force in its MWC opener so while that could always be looked as this being a letdown spot, it is not based on the opponent. The Spartans other two wins were against Sacramento St. and Kennesaw St. so the schedule has not been great which is skewing the numbers but we have faith in first year head coach Ken Niumatalolo who had success at Navy in the similar underdog role and he is getting it done with a totally different style. Quarterback Emmett Brown has been awesome in the passing game as the Spartans are ranked No. 22 in Passing Success Rate with him putting up a 9:1 TD:INT ratio. He faces a Cougars defense that has been susceptible against the pass as they are No. 127 in passing defense, allowing 301 ypg and that always gives the underdog, especially a big underdog, a chance to stay within margin. 10* (309) San Jose St. Spartans

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Jets picked up their first win of the season with a front door cover late in the fourth quarter and are now back in New York for their home opener. This will be the first true home game for Aaron Rodgers after leaving the opener last season on the first series and there are the doubters after a couple not so great productive games. The Jets defense was to blame in the opener as they could not stop the 49ers which forced a game of catch up that they could not match up with. There will not be that issue tonight as they will be facing a similar offense as last week when the Titans were able to gain just 300 total yards with the help of more poor decision making from Will Levis. Jacoby Brissett is a step above but moving on the road after a home opener loss to this environment will be a test. The Patriots have owned this series with a 15-1 advantage over the last 16 meetings but that makes do difference with the rosters being completely different. The Patriots defense is the focal point. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati in the opener but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Last week, Seattle could get nothing going on the ground but Geno Smith had a huge game through the air as he passed for 327 yards on a 75 percent completion clip and this is where the Jets offense can bust out especially with the ability of Breece Hall in both the passing and running game. The lookahead line was 7 and came down most places Sunday night and has settled in at 6-6.5 and it is at a number that is completely skewed from the numbers of both of the games from last week. 10* (302) New York Jets

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Star Attraction. One of the big public sleepers could fall to 0-2 despite not allowing a touchdown in Week One as the Falcons and new quarterback Kirk Cousins failed to get it done against the Steelers. The same Steelers team that is 2-0 having score just one touchdown. Atlanta is in a spot that has historically been great as it comes into Week Two coming off an outright loss as a favorite and now being an underdog. Covers by Cleveland and Cincinnati moved these teams to 67-44-4 ATS since 1980 and this includes a 34-16-4 ATS run when playing against a non-division team. We are now seeing a nine-point swing and this against a team coming off a horrible travel spot. The Philadelphia defense allowed 414 total yards (251 passing yards and 163 rushing yards) in the season opener and it is a defense that went into last season on paper was one of the best and is not. The Eagles finished No. 30 in Defensive EPA, No. 26 passing and No. 28 rushing, and this is a great time for Atlanta to face them coming off that game. The addition of Saquon Barkley makes this offense legit at both levels but A.J. Brown is out tonight and that is a big loss to take away some of the balance of that offense. 10* (291) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. If it was possible for a 2-15 team to look worse than that in the first game the following season, Carolina may have accomplished it. The Panthers had nothing going on offense while the defense could not stop a pretty average offense and they are currently the fourth least bet team behind Las Vegas, New Orleans and Chicago. Head coach Dave Canales called himself out after the loss and we can expect a different team in their home opener. Looking back at least season, the Panthers have scored 10 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games but this spot could not be better. The Chargers won an ugly game against the Raiders that was a skewed final with a questionable fourth down call in the fourth quarter from Las Vegas that swayed the game. We refer to ugly as Los Angeles had more rushing attempts than passing attempts and this is likely going to be the script this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The early lookahead line in the summer was 3 and then opened at most other books last Sunday at 5.5 or 6, went up from there and has now gone back down to 5 despite the handle. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35 or more points and are underdogs of four points or more in their next game are 50-18-2 ATS (73.5 percent). 10* (266) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. If there is one player on a roster to move a line, it is the quarterback but often time the numbers are moved too much which is the case here. Green Bay opened as the favorite before the game last Friday and as soon as Jordan Love went down at the end of the game, this one came off the board and when put back up, the line flipped and we are now seeing a 6-7 point swing in some spots which is too much for this quarterback. There has been talk about Love not being completely ruled out for this week as he is officially listed as questionable but we are not banking on him playing. The Packers lost a tough one in Brazil against the Eagles and are a non-public home underdog this week with over 70 percent of the money on the other side. Indianapolis came through for us last week against Houston with the backdoor cover despite getting outgained by over 100 yards. The Colts ran only 41 plays with quarterback Anthony Richardson accounting for 25 of those and running back Jonathan Taylor running for the other 16 so the all or nothing offense was on full display. Defensively, the Colts were not good as they allowed 213 yards rushing which fits into the gameplan of Green Bay to utilize Josh Jacobs and not have to rely on Malik Willis. He has had a full week of practice and this group is going to rally around him in what is already a big game for Green Bay to avoid the 0-2 start. 10* (272) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We saw this number open at 6-6.5 and it has remained steady throughout the week despite early money on the Cowboys. Dallas came away with the road win in Cleveland despite only 265 yards of offense and that is what will be keeping the majority off of them when the public money comes in despite being a typical public bet team. The Cowboys did it with their defense as they limited the Browns to 230 yards of offense and there is very little difference between the offenses of Cleveland and New Orleans despite what the Saints did last week. The 47 points scored were their most in a season opener in over 40 years but now they face a defense that finished No. 5 in DVOA last season and will be bringing pressure on quarterback Derek Carr all game. Cleveland was without both starting tackles last week which made a huge difference but the Saints entered the season with the lowest rated offensive line and could be without both of their starting tackles as well so there is no difference heading into this week. There certainly are questions with the Dallas offense but the Browns pass rush compared to the Saints is not comparable. Additionally, their secondary is banged up already and the home opener for newly inked CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott should put on a show coming off their playoff loss last season, snapping a 16-game home winning streak. 10* (268) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. New England is coming off the biggest upset of Week One as it went into Cincinnati and came away with a six-point win as a 7.5-point underdog which added to the Bengals notoriety of slow season starts. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Offensively, it was an expected poor showing as New England had just 290 yards of offense including 120 yards through the air and Seattle will see a similar situation as it did with Bo Nix who threw the ball 42 times and had just 138 yards passing. The Bengals receiving group was part of the problem as there was no chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase missing a lot of time and Andrei Iosivas being the No. 2. The situation for Seattle is different despite the average game from Geno Smith against the Broncos. Had New England come away with the win last week, this line would be well over 3 but it is hanging there despite Seattle being the early action side and the Patriots seeing over a 10-point line swing. This is not the Patriots spot as they are 1-12 against the number in their last 13 games getting four or fewer points. 10* (277) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Star Attraction. We are not sure what happened to the Jets defense last week but they were on the field way too much, 25 of the first 37 minutes, and that does not bode well for a team coming off a short week. That being said, playing against one of the best rosters in the NFL and now facing one of the worst gives them a huge edge. Tennessee possesses one of the best receiving groups in the league but it has a quarterback that cannot get them the ball as Will Levis continues to regress. Two of his first four starts were outstanding last season against Atlanta and Jacksonville but his highest passer rating since then has been 86.2 with his opener this season being 52.5. Aaron Rodgers was not horrible with his first full game with the Jets, he could not just get into a rhythm with the offense possessing the ball for just over 21 minutes. The Tennessee defense is a solid unit but the fact they allowed 24 unanswered points against a quarterback that failed to score an offensive touchdown is a huge concern. Tennessee blew a 17-0 lead last week against Chicago becoming the second team in the last 69 games (66-2-1 ATS) as an underdog of four or more points to lose after having a 17 or more point lead. This is a huge game for the Jets which have one of the worst early schedules playing their first two games on the road and then having to play Thursday in Week Three. 10* (279) New York Jets

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO ST. AZTECS for our CFB Late Night Powerhouse. California came through for us last weekend and while it was as much of a play on the Golden Bears, it was just as much of a play against Auburn with the Tigers up to their old tricks again. This is another overreaction spot with the Golden Bears now seeing a 31 to 32-point swing in one week and while opponent and venue are taken into consideration, it is too much of a move with this being a letdown as well as a lookahead as California heads back east next week for their first ever ACC game as it travels to Florida St. The Golden Bears are 2-0 but the offense has not been great as they have averaged just 306.5 ypg which is No. 106 and that is with playing a team from the FCS in their opener. The defense has been much better as they have allowed only 13.5 ppg and while that average is not going to last, it is nearly 20 ppg better than last season. This is just the sixth time they have been double-digit favorites over an FBS team since 2019 and they have gone 0-5 ATS in the previous five. San Diego St. is 1-1 to open the season following getting shutout last week against Oregon St. and that is also playing into this number. Head coach Brady Hoke retired after last season and Sean Lewis was hired after serving as the offensive coordinator at Colorado last season. He has shifted the offense from a running style to a more Air Raid system to mixed results obviously as the new system is taking time to break in. The Aztecs have relied on running back Marquez Cooper who is a 1,000-yard transfer from Ball St. and he worked with Lewis at Kent St. and he has put up 276 yards on 6.9 ypc. Their defense kept them in the game last week as they did not allow a point on seven straight drives and will bank on that while getting more from the offense. While the Aztecs are moving toward that fast offense, they will try and keep the defense off the field as much as possible which hurt them late last Saturday. 10* (205) San Diego St. Aztecs

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl retired at the end of last season after 10 seasons with the Cowboys where he compiled a 61-60 record and took them to a bowl game in six of the last seven non-COVID seasons. He went out strong with a 9-4 record with those nine victories the most in his tenure and now Jay Sawvel takes over after serving as the defensive coordinator under Bohl for the last four seasons. This is a strong program with a toughness on both sides so we expected the transition should be seamless but it has been anything but that. The Cowboys got boat raced at Arizona St. in their opener as the offense could get nothing going with a total of 118 yards of offense and the Sun Devils scored touchdowns on an interception return and a fumble return. While Wyoming lost its home opener last week against Idaho, it looked a lot better and the Vandals are one of the best teams in the FCS as they lost at Oregon by only 10 points. This is the buy with an overreaction line through two games. BYU pulled off the upset over SMU last Friday as it benefitted from the Mustangs abruptly benching quarterback Preston Stone after throwing only four passes and the backup Kevin Jennings leading SMU to five field goals. The Cougars are now 2-0 after beating Southern Illinois in their opener and are in a tough spot coming off that upset win and a game against Kansas St. on deck to open conference play. This is the time to fade when a team is feeling too good about themselves as this is the sell high point especially facing a team that the public is down on. We are far from sold on this offense as quarterback Jake Retzlaff has completed only 60 percent of his passes while throwing four touchdowns and two interceptions and the Cougars will not be able to rely on their running games as the depth at running back will be tested this week, as the top two players, LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati, are doubtful to play against Wyoming. The defense has improved but that unit is also still a question. 10* (202) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We lost a tough one with Maryland last week as the Terrapins blew a touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter as they allowed a 77-yard touchdown pass that tied the game and eventually lost on a field goal as time expired. As mentioned in that analysis, the weakness of the Maryland defense is their secondary and we did not think Aidan Chiles could take advantage yet he did on that one play but he also threw three interceptions and they have a better matchup this week. The front seven is still strong and faces an offense that has yet to be tested. The one big question of offense was how Maryland was going to replace All Time Big 10 passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa but Billy Edwards has been great through two games, throwing for 564 yards while completing 75.4 percent of his passes and he has formed great chemistry with the top two returning receivers Tai Felton and Kaden Prather who have already combined for 25 catches. Virginia is off to a 2-0 start which is already one win shy of its win total from both 2022 and 2023 but one victory came against Richmond of the FCS and the Cavaliers needed to rally from 13 points down in the fourth quarter and scored the game winning touchdown with two minutes left last week against Wake Forest. The passing game was very solid from quarterback Anthony Colandrea but that came against a Demon Deacons secondary which had a preseason ranking that was dead last in the ACC. He still threw two picks against a secondary that had only eight all of last season. Defensively, Virginia has been suspect as expected as they returned starters from a very bad defense and the experience can be just as bad as it can be good with the balance between poor play and experience masking each other. The results on the scoreboard from last week are dictating the line with early overreactions from the upset of Maryland and the 2-0 start for Virginia. 10* (199) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS as part of our Late Triple Play. Indiana football has never been relevant as it has never had a double-digit winning season and has won nine games only once but all it could take to turn a program around is the right coach and the Hoosiers made one of the best offseason hires. They got Curt Cignetti from James Madison where he compiled a 52-10 record in five seasons including a 19-5 record at the FBS level. The 3-9 record last season, which included a win against Indiana St. of the FCS and a win over 2-10 Akron that took four overtimes, was not surprising as the Hoosiers brought back only eight starters but now have 21 of 22 starters back which does include many transfer starts with a lot of those from James Madison. They are 2-0 which is the sixth time in the last 10 seasons they have started at least 2-0 and while the previous five resulted in a bowl game four times, they lost all four and this year it just seems different. While Indiana is trending up, UCLA is going the other way. Last season, the offense dropped by close to 13 ppg from 2022 and while seven starters are back, there is no one of significance as of the four preseason All-Big Ten teams, they have only one player on those and that is a 4th Team wide receiver. Ethan Garbers takes over the full time job at quarterback but he is nothing special. The defense was the catalyst as the Bruins were No. 10 in the country overall and No. 12 in points allowed but they are going to see a drastic drop in those rankings. They have only five starters back and two losses up front are probably two of the biggest in the country with edges Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy. They opened the season with a win over Hawaii as they needed three field goals to close out the scoring and won 16-10. That game was in Hawaii and UCLA is now off a rare Week Two bye which was an awful time for this inexperienced team as it needs reps. This is the home opener but it is in one of the worst home environments in the Power 4. 10* (193) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS for our Big 12 Game of the Month. UCF had a rollercoaster season last year yet rallied late to become bowl eligible and it easily could have been a better season as they were on the plus side in yardage differential in Big 12 games despite being 3-6 as three of the losses were by a combined four points. They have 15 starters back including seven on an offense that finished No. 3 in the nation and while they lose both quarterbacks that split time, they got KJ Jefferson who came in from Arkansas after starting 38 games for the Razorbacks and his duel threat ability will fit well while RJ Harvey is a potential 1st Team All-Big 12 running back. Jefferson has not been great passing the ball through two games but he has not had to be, throwing it only 29 times as the Knights lead the country in rushing with 419 ypg thanks to Harvey who has rushed for 268 yards on 30 carries (8.9 ypc) behind a very underrated offensive line. While the schedule has played into this but it lines up with what TCU has played as well. The Horned Frogs are also off to a 2-0 start but it has not been as impressive as they struggled against a bad Stanford team to win their opener by a touchdown but that was on the road to their credit. They rolled past Long Island of the FCS 45-0 last week but LIU is one of the worst teams in that subdivision so this will be the biggest test thus far. Quarterback Josh Hoover took over last season at the midway point and was pretty solid but went just 2-4 and has gotten off to a good start this year but against a couple rough defenses. They lost their top running back from last season and have averaged only 112 ypg on the ground behind one of the worst offensive lines in the Big 12. The defense has already faced one dual-threat quarterback in Ashton Daniels of Stanford and the Horned Frogs had mixed results as he rushed for 87 yards and while the passing was not great, Jefferson is a big upgrade from Daniels so they could have big troubles here. 10* (187) Central Florida Knights

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES as part of our Late Triple Play. Eastern Michigan opened the season with a win at UMass as the Eagles had a comfortable 28-7 lead late in the fourth quarter before the Minutemen scored a touchdown in garbage time on a possession that accounted for 75 of their 329 total yards. The Eagles went on the road again last week to take on Washington and while the final score ended up 30-9, it was a one possession game going into the final minute of the first half. Eastern Michigan finally heads back to Ypsilanti to the gray turf for their home opener as it has ground to make up but could easily head into their bye week at 3-2. Head coach Chris Creighton has done an awesome job at turning this program around from a bottom feeder to a consistent team that has found a winning culture. Quarterback Cole Snyder is in his first season after starting two years at Buffalo and is still learning the system and has a better matchup than the one he faced last week against a Power 4 defense. Jacksonville St. is coming off a very successful first season at the FBS level as it went 9-4 including an inaugural bowl win and while it came in with a relatively high win total of 7.5, we expected some regression with only nine starters coming back and the Gamecocks have been blown out in their first two games. Granted those were against tougher opponents than what they will see this week, there is a lot to clean up. Quarterback Tyler Huff who was the SoCon Player of the Year last season has found the jump to the FBS level a challenge. The defense was the strength last season but they lost a ton of talent and it has shown by allowing 55 and 49 points. Again, they take a step down in class but the confidence level is low and this is not a great situation facing a team in their home opener and one that will be out for revenge from a 21-0 loss last season as the Eagles were held to just 111 total yards and now laying a short price to avenge that defeat. 10* (172) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS as part of our Late Triple Play. The Warriors brought some momentum into this year as they won three of their last four games and opened this season with a win over Delaware St. of the FCS and while they were not close to covering the massive number, it was clear they kept the playbook closed. They followed that up with a near miss against UCLA but they were able to cover the big number and have now had a week off to get ready for this one and improve their offense which sputtered against the Bruins late. Hawaii brings back eight starters on an offense led by quarterback Brayden Schager who threw for 3,542 yards last season with 26 touchdowns and has his top six receivers back but did toss 14 picks and needs to be more consistent. This is the first road game for the Warriors and coming off the island can sometimes be an issue but the extra time is a big benefit for any sort of acclimation. Seven starters are back on defense that improved last season as it went along and allowing only 27 points through two games is great progress. Sam Houston is off to a 1-1 start as it rolled over Rice in its opener but followed that up with a 31-point loss at UCF last week and now the Bearkats are playing their home opener as an overpriced favorite. The UCF defense held the Sam Houston offense to only 286 yards of total offense and just 67 yards on the ground last week and the quarterback situation did not help itself. Hunter Watson started the first game and while he did not turn the ball over, he was not efficient and he again started last week but was pulled after throwing for only 82 yards with two interceptions. Jase Bauer was better as he tossed a touchdown in garbage time so nothing has been solved since the two started battling in fall camp. The defense has struggled through the first two games and they are an inexperienced unit with Hawaii having a great shot at taking advantage of a poor rushing defense that can open up the passing game. 10* (177) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our CFB Rivalry Rout Pt2. Florida International opened the season with a 31-7 loss at Indiana and the Panthers should be 0-2 at this point if not for a mistake prone Central Michigan team that came calling last week. They were outgained 369-309 but had six takeaways which made their 52-16 win very misleading and this is the sell high spot as that victory was nothing more than an anomaly that falsely affects the immediate line going forward. It has been five straight losing seasons for Florida International and while this season was not expected to be a complete rebuild, trying to improve upon back-to-back 4-8 seasons is hard to do with little talent from a rich football recruiting area when its own class came in No. 109. The Panthers are averaging only 245.5 ypg which is No. 120 out of 134 teams while their defense is No. 91 so looking at point differential is not the right way to go about it. This is the big rival of the season even though they have not faced each other since 2022 and the Owls have the big home edge. It has been a rough start for Florida Atlantic which was expected to turn things around following four straight losing seasons but there is still plenty of time but it has to start here after losing its first two games. The Owls had their chances at Michigan St. but lost a tough six-point game and last week was even worse as they got crushed by the Army rushing game, allowing 405 yards on the ground with the offense being able to do nothing once again. This is the ideal turnaround situation as we are getting the opposite opportunity to take a buy low team that is 0-2 which no one wants to back. The home opener was a disaster with its 12:00 kickoff time in the oppressive heat which brought in maybe one-third capacity of 30,000 FAU Stadium but things are expected to turn around this week with a late kickoff in this rivalry. This game is huge as the Owls have Connecticut and Wagner on deck so a 3-2 record going back into AAC action is essential. 10* (166) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the WASHINGTON ST. COUGARS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. The Apple Cup comes early this season and Washington St. has had this game circled since the season finale last year for a couple reasons. The Cougars are 2-0 following a blowout win over Portland St. of the FCS and then another big win last week over Texas Tech as it completely shut down the Red Raiders Air Raid offense, allowing just 16 points with its bend do not break defense. They will not be tested like that here or like they were last season against the Huskies even though they did a good job of shutting them down then as well. Last season, the Cougars opened 4-0 including a pair of top 20 wins and they moved up to No. 13 in the AP Poll but then it was six straight losses before a win over an equally reeling Colorado team. Washington St. had a chance to still go bowling but lost to eventual CFP invitee Washington on a last second field goal so there is revenge from that and they of course have not forgotten the Washington move to the Big 10, leaving the Cougars in limbo. We are sure what this Washington team really is as it brought only two starters back on offense and just four back on defense and the Huskies are coming off a pair of wins by 32 and 21 points but they were not tested at home against Weber St. and Eastern Michigan. They are listed as the home team here but they are not playing on their campus field at Husky Stadium as this one is at Lumen Field, home of the Seahawks so while it is in Seattle, it will not be the same environment. The big complaint from this team is that they were once again snubbed by the AP voters but do not deserve any sort of ranking at this point. They have started slow in both games and while that should come around eventually with the new personnel, this is not the spot in a big rivalry game with the motivational edge being on the other side in our opinion. Mississippi St. transfer quarterback Will Rogers has looked good in his first two starts but now will be tested. 10* (137) Washington St. Cougars

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Rivalry Rout Pt1. West Virginia came up small for us two weeks ago against Penn St. as it could not take advantage of a lengthy weather delay that could have changed the momentum that Penn St. had in its favor but the Nittany Lions were able to pull away for the easy win. The Mountaineers rebounded last week in a 49-14 win over a good Albany team from the FCS as they regained some confidence, notably quarterback Garrett Greene who tossed his first three touchdowns of the season. This is just the third meeting of the Backyard Brawl after an 11-year hiatus but this is still a bitter rivalry and this is the best West Virginia team since its revival. The Mountaineers come in as the favorite as they should be but they come in as a short favorite as our two sets of ratings have them at -5.5 and -10.5 so catching anything under a field goal is great. While it is a big rivalry, Pittsburgh does not have a big home field edge playing all of its home games at an NFL stadium. Things were looking good for Cincinnati last week as it had a 12-point lead late in the third quarter but decided to play some prevent football and allowed the Panthers to come all the way back for the victory. That was a huge momentum win for Pittsburgh as it is now 2-0 and their offensive attack, led by quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid, is averaging 41.5 ppg through two weeks. We are not sold on this offense however as the Panthers averaged 20.2 ppg last season and their early numbers are skewed by playing Kent St. in the first game. The defensive numbers are also skewed based on that opponent and also the fact the Bearcats decided to take their foot off the gas and go vanilla. The defense was bad in their 3-9 season in 2023 and now they will be facing their toughest offense that has scored 30 or more points in eight of their last 10 games going back to last season, the only exceptions coming against Oklahoma St. and Penn St. 10* (141) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Central Michigan got absolutely embarrassed down in Miami as they lost to Florida International 52-16 as a favorite no less in what was probably the most misleading final over the Week Two slate. The Chippewas actually outgained the Panthers 369-309, had seven more first downs and close to a nine-minute possession advantage but the Panthers forced the Chippewas into a total of six turnovers including a program-tying record five interceptions and a fumble recovery on a punt. Basically, we can throw this game out as all it does is add a defeat into the loss column and add to their value going forward based on the final score because that is what everyone is going to see and pay attention to which is the wrong thing to do. It was a tough loss for Central Michigan as it could have used that winnable game with a brutal MAC schedule upcoming and it will not get any easier here but our concern is not about any outright win but the number the Chippewas are catching coming off that skewed final score. Illinois meanwhile is in a horrible spot as it is coming off an upset over Kansas 23-17 as 5.5-point underdogs and the game played out the same as the Central Michigan game, only the opposite way. The Illini were outgained 327-271 but benefitted from a 5-1 turnover advantage which included an interception returned for a score for one of its two touchdowns. This is where the overreaction comes into play as the top line shows an upset that really never should have happened going up against a team coming off getting upset that never should have happened. In the 18-team Big 10 Conference, Illinois was pegged to finish between No. 12 and No. 14 so this is not a very good team and not a team that should be laying over three possessions over any FBS team that has a pulse. Quarterback Luke Altmyer looked solid against the Panthers of the FCS in his opener but struggled against the Jayhawks and he is not one to back when laying a big number knowing the fact he did not cover one game as a favorite last season and this is the biggest of them all. 10* (117) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Florida St. is coming off a bye week which was probably needed more than any other team in the country following a pair of losses as a double-digit favorite in each game to open the season. Now is the time to buy low with the Seminoles as no one is backing this team and that is already being shown with the handle as 94 percent of the early tickets and 91 percent of the early money has come in on Memphis. It can also be argued that no other team has missed its quarterback from last season more than Florida St. as Jordan Travis was coming off a great season while DJ Uiagalelei has started slow and not gotten a grasp of the offense, another good time for the bye week to work on getting a better feel. Now while they are playing another solid team, they go out of conference for the first time this season and laying a manageable number in what has turned into a must game as while it does not help them in the ACC picture but just gives them some needed confidence with conference action starting back up next week. Memphis is 2-0 with wins over North Alabama of the FCS and Troy, which is going through a rebuild with just four starters back so the Tigers have not been tested. They came in as the favorites to win the AAC but it is far from a great conference so having played the No. 198 ranked schedule after two games does not give us much of how good they are with their 78-17 scoring differential being skewed. Offensively, they have not missed a beat after finishing No. 16 in total offense and No. 6 in scoring offense last season. Defensively, they have looked equally good but again, they have played no one and that is from a defense that was No. 95 in points allowed and No. 112 in total defense last season so the fact that it has not been tested puts the linemakers in a corner as they cannot inflate the number because even more money will pour in on the Tigers so they are setting it low despite this being only their third road game against a Power Conference team since 2016, the first two being losses by 20 and 26 points. 10* (120) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. While these two teams are in the same conference, this game actually will not count for their conference record because it was agreed to be in an out of conference matchup while Arizona was still in the Pac 12. Kansas St. rolled over Tennessee Martin in its season opener and then got away with one last week at Tulane as the Green Wave had their game-tying touchdown taken off the board due to a very suspect offensive pass interference call. That was followed up with a non-defensive pass interference call on the Wildcats and they eventually sealed the game with an interception. The offense was average as the running game was solid behind D.J. Giddens but quarterback Avery Johnson did not do much in the passing game for a second straight game. The real concern is the passing defense as the Wildcats allowed Darian Mensah to throw for 342 yards on just 19 completions (18 yards per completion) and this is a real concern going against Noah Fifita who is coming off a horrible game by his standards. Arizona opened its season with a blowout win over New Mexico and it clearly thought that easy win meant they could show up against Northern Arizona and roll but that was not the case. Arizona rallied from down four points at the half to beat the Lumberjacks 22-10 on Saturday for its ninth straight victory which ties a school record and is currently the longest active winning streak in the country. The Wildcats won despite arguably its worst offensive performance since 2021 as they gained 361 yards while going 0 for 10 on third down with just 147 yards in the first half, 26 fewer than they gained on their first two drives against New Mexico. The defense saved the day, allowing only 198 total yards and the takeaway from the game was that they just did not show up. Do not expect a repeat of that here. The tough environment is playing into this line as we have this game at 3.5 so we are getting the value on top of it. 10* (109) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Miami needed two field goals in the last five minutes to beat Jacksonville and that was a big win heading into this game not just to possibly avoid falling two games back in the AFC East had they lost, but for confidence coming off an interesting pregame situation to say the least. Miami has the short rest advantage with no travel and we are not seeing this line do much which is fair with both teams coming off favorite wins last week. This could be the best spot to catch Buffalo at in a while with its defense coming into the season with some concerns and Miami now looking to improve upon its 20 and 14 point outputs in the two meetings last season. The Dolphins scored just 20 points last week against the Jaguars but did manage 400 yards of offense and based on the NFL yard per point average over the last five years, that normally equates to 27 points. The Dolphins have already ruled out Raheem Mostert while DeVon Achane is listed as a gametime decision and this could be a big issue but neither were involved much in the running game last week and Jeff Wilson is more than a capable backup. The Bills opened things up in the second half after falling behind 17-3 but the win was still in jeopardy but Arizona failed on a fourth-and-7 from the Buffalo 29-yard line with just 26 seconds left. As mentioned, the defense was a concern coming in and with the exception of Greg Rousseau, it was not a clean effort against a not so great offense. Buffalo will need a better effort here and could struggle on the back end with the Miami speed. On offense, quarterback Josh Allen completed 18 of his 23 passes for 232 yards and scored four total touchdowns, including two rushing touchdowns, on his way to a 75.1 PFF overall grade. Allen was willing to push the ball downfield, too, averaging 9.7 ypa but no clear No. 1 receiver emerged with Keon Coleman leading with five targets with seven others getting between two and three. This is not necessarily a bad thing spreading it around no go to guy causes Allen to try and do too much and it nearly cost him. His wrist injury is on the non-throwing hand but that can affect other areas of his game. Having lost four straight and nine of the last 10 in this series, the Dolphins break through Thursday. 10* (104) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The 49ers fell just short once again as they made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years but lost to Kansas City yet again and it was their third Super Bowl loss in the last 12 seasons. They are favored to win the NFC once again but the conference is getting stronger and this will be an interesting year to see how they handle an offseason that was not a smooth one and how they can recover from yet another close call. This is still one of the best rosters in the league but this is not a good spot in the opener against a legitimate team. Since 2000, Super Bowl losers have gone 5-19 ATS in the opening week the following season and while it has leveled out somewhat more recently (3-3 ATS L6), those three winners did not go against the best of competition, the last two opponents being the 2023 Patriots and 2019 Panthers which went a combined 9-24 those seasons and the 2018 Texans which were a respectable 10-6. Additionally, Monday night favorites have been bankroll burners, going 19-41-1 ATS since 1980 and this is all based on the public riding those sides with inflated numbers. Expectations are high for the Jets for a second straight season following last year when their season was basically over after four snaps when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA and they averaged 10.4 ppg in their 10 losses. Rodgers is not the same quarterback he once was is our guess after not seeing him in a while but he will breathe life into the offense. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. Anything over a field goal is a bonus and it would not be surprising to see this number go up slightly with public money not hitting the 49ers yet. 10* (481) New York Jets

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The Commanders finished last in the NFC East as they went 3-14 overall including going a winless 0-6 in the division and while they are not coming into the season as a very hyped team, they figure to be improved. Quarterback Sam Howell started every game for Washington but he is gone after leading the NFL with 23 turnovers and the Commanders had the worst turnover margin in the league which puts them in a positive progression situation going into this season as that usually reverses out and we will take advantage of that in Game One because the lines are still focused mainly on last season. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. To help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Commanders fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (473) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Giants had an offseason that many felt was left to be desired as they did not do a ton of upgrading and will have to go on after losing running back Saquon Barkley but we love the early buy low spot with no one wanting a piece of New York. Besides us. This is the typical offseason overreaction which we love to go against, whether it be the good or bad hype, and it is the latter in this case with a lot of that directed toward quarterback Daniel Jones who is back after an injury filled 2023 season which included a torn ACL in Week Nine. He looked below average in the preseason but we cannot take too much out of that. The biggest problem on offense last season was not necessarily the loss of Jones but it was the offensive line as they allowed an NFL worst 85 sacks, 20 more than the next highest team. No worries about that in this matchup. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball and Jones should have time. The Vikings defense showed improvement going from second worst in total defense to No. 16 but Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone and they finished last season with only 43 sacks. Daboll has taken over the play calling after two years and we love that move. Minnesota lost quarterback Kirk Cousins which is a huge loss and they will turn to Sam Darnold who does not instill much confidence. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off with Darnold and his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here with the exception of Justin Jefferson but he could struggle without Cousins. The Giants defense was not horrendous last season and the signing of Brian Burns was significant. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Giants fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (460) New York Giants

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. There is no hype in New Orleans despite coming off a winning season as it is in a rare situation of coming off a decent finish but odds have gone the other direction despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. The Saints are in one of the weakest divisions in the league and it is wide open yet they have gone from +115 last season to +400 this season while their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less than 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Quarterback Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the worst coach in the division now faces off against who we think is the best coach in the division. Carolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. Head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and while he was not the issue, we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The Panthers upgraded their defense as well. The casual fan or bettor will look at those two wins from last season but Carolina has potential for a big turnaround. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Panthers fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. Also, Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014. 10* (461) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Division Game of the Month. This is a spot where we are going against a team that comes into the season as arguably the biggest overhyped team with Super Bowl futures pouring in. There have been only eight teams in the NFL that were 150-1 or higher to win the Super Bowl and then go to 20-1 or less the following season and Houston is one of those heading into this season. Of the previous seven, five have finished with a losing record so we will be fading the Texans here as they are getting the love of their worst to first AFC South turnaround. The fact the Texans had 11 wins last season which was the same amount as their previous three seasons combined shows there should be negative regression and we have the ideal spot in playing against them as they enter the season as a division road favorite with the number continuing to climb. With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year but eight of his 10 regular season wins came against teams that did not make the playoffs and while one of those was Indianapolis, the Colts are a different team than what they were in January. Houston also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA but there was a lot of turnover on this side. Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking. Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014 while divisional home underdogs are 25-13 ATS going back further. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our CFB Primetime Dominator. As expected, Tennessee had no issues with Chattanooga last week as it racked up 718 yards of offense in the 69-3 win. It was a meaningless FCS victory but showed that they are on the rise with the program in its best place in a long time. In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season and was unstoppable last week and while he will see a better defense, it is not a great one. NC State has been consistent on defense the last three seasons but have to replace the Bednarik and Butkus Award winning linebacker Payton Wilson. NC State needed 21 points in the fourth quarter to pull away from Western Carolina so it was not the opener the Wolfpack were really hoping for. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong did not live up to expectations last season and the offense suffered, finishing No. 96 overall and No. 71 in scoring and the Wolfpack brought in Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina, who was outstanding in his first three years but was hurt most of last season. He was very good in the opener but will have a tougher test this week and it will be up to the Tennessee secondary to slow down ACC Freshman of the Year receiver KC Concepcion. The Volunteers can do that with a disruptive pass rush where they will have a huge edge as the difference will be the Tennessee defensive line, ranked No. 3 in the SEC, going up against the NC State offensive line, ranked No. 11 in the ACC. 10* (399) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. East Carolina is a sexy pick to win the AAC despite coming off a 2-10 season last year. The Pirates got no resistance from Norfolk St. in their 42-3 win in their season opener and while it was just a FCS win, it was a big confidence builder after losing their last seven season openers. The Pirates have had only two winning seasons since 2014 but those were in 2022 and 2023 so last season could be considered an anomaly should they bounce back which is expected as there was very little experience on the roster last year especially on the offense. East Carolina hit the transfer portal hard to improve that offense that finished No. 130 overall and No. 127 in scoring, bringing in Miami quarterback Jake Garcia who helped lead the offense to over 500 total yards. The offensive line lacked experience last season and it will be far better off in 2024. The other side is where the turnaround starts with as the Pirates were No. 38 overall and No. 40 in points allowed with only SMU and UTSA scoring 30 or more points in conference games and while they did lose a few key pieces, portal arrivals should keep the unit strong with the second best defensive line and fifth best secondary in the conference heading into the season. Old Dominion left its heart on the field last week in Columbia as it just fell short in pulling off the upset against South Carolina. That is a tough game to recover from for a team that was in need of something really good to happen. Old Dominion has had only one winning season since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 as it went 10-3 in 2016 but it has had some success of late. The Monarchs had one of the worst two-year stretches you will ever see as they went 1-11 in 2019 and then completely shut football down during the 2020 COVID year but have gone bowling the last two years. However, the Monarchs bring back only 10 starters including four on defense which has been the issue as they have not allowed fewer than 27 ppg since 2010 and that likely will not change this year despite the decent effort last week. 10* (353) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Virginia Tech was a bad call last week as it fell behind early against Vanderbilt and while the Hokies rallied, they could not contain quarterback Diego Pavia who had a combined 301 yards passing and rushing showing his season at New Mexico St. last year was no fluke. It was the third straight time that Virginia Tech opened the season with a road loss as a favorite but it bounced back at home both previous times and we expect a blowout here. This is the second most experienced team in the country as they have 11 starters back on offense led by quarterback Kyron Drones who is returning for his second season as the starter and he has four of his top five receivers back that combined for 1,549 yards last season and he had a solid first game but they need to get the running game going as Bhayshul Tuten was held to just 34 yards on nine carries. The Hokies scored 30 or more points in five of their last eight games last season and will not find much resistance here. The Marshall defense allowed 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2022 and has only five starters back. Marshall rolled over Stony Brook of the FCS in its opener as they used three different quarterbacks to get as much experience as possible. The Thundering Herd are coming off their first losing season since 2016 as they went 6-7 with a 35-17 loss to UTSA in the Frisco Bowl solidifying the under .500 mark. It could be another challenging season as Marshall brings back only 10 starters, its fewest since 2016 and it affects both sides of the ball. The offense has dipped each of the last three seasons with the quarterback play beyond horrible last season and the Herd were hoping Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis would provide a spark but he left the program in June and Stone Earle, who left North Texas in June, got the start so this situation could turn into a mess when now facing a legitimate defense. The Hokies defense improved by 55 ypg from 2022 and finished No. 20 in the country and brings back four of the top five tacklers and bounces back here. 10* (350) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CFB Rivalry Rout. Texas St. is on a lot of brackets to be the team to represent the Group of 5 in the CFP and rightfully so even though it looked not so great in its opener but that helps us here. The Bobcats only won by seven points against Lamar but they were up 17 with four minutes left so there were garbage points involved. Texas St. was one of the bigger surprises in the conference last season as it had put together eight straight losing seasons but ended up 8-5 including a win in its first ever bowl game, a 45-21 win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl. The Bobcats opened the season with an 11-point victory at Baylor as 27.5-point underdogs and things could have been better as three of the five losses were by one possession. Nine starters return on offense and while they had to replace Auburn transfer T.J. Finley, they brought in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud who had a great season and threw for 238 yards and three touchdowns in the opener behind the best offensive line in the SBC. Nine starters are back on a defense that regressed by close to a touchdown per game but will show improvements. UTSA had a bigger than anticipated test against Kennesaw St., which is in its first season at the FBS level, as the Roadrunners needed a late score to pull away. While expected to contend in the AAC, they lost a lot from their 9-4 team from last season, notably replacing the best quarterback in program history. Frank Harris set school records for passing yards (11,862), passing touchdowns (92), rushing yards (2,145), and rushing touchdowns (28) as a five-year player and four-year starter. Owen McCown, who led UTSA to their bowl victory, won the starting job and was solid in the opener as he threw for 340 yards but will have a bigger test here and this will be his first ever road start. The Roadrunners were above average on defense, led by Trey Moore who won AAC Defensive Player of the Year and set a school record with 14 sacks, but he transferred to Texas so that is a big hole to fill while the secondary has to rebuild with three starters lost. 10* (346) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Contrarian Closer. California was in a fight in its season opener with UC Davis but that could have been more so keeping things close to the vest and not showing much as it clung to a one point lead at halftime and pulled away late for the 31-13 win. It was the game we wanted to set a play up here as a closer than expected call gives them value here. Last season, California made it to its first bowl game since 2019 as it won its final three regular season games to become bowl eligible and while it lost to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl, it was a season to build upon. The offense was nothing spectacular as it was No. 60 overall and No. 48 in scoring with 30.2 ppg, its highest average since 2016 and it was spurned when freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza took over as the full time starter six games into the season. He finished the opener 15-22 for 158 yards and one touchdown which was nothing spectacular but it was efficient and now face a defense that has not been very good for years. Auburn went the FCS route in its season opener so a 73-3 victory will look good in the stats but means little in what was a glorified scrimmage. The Tigers are coming off their third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze to turn things around. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team in the SEC but they came into last season as the fifth most experienced and were mediocre at best. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent with a 60.9% completion rate while throwing only 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He had a great opener against Alabama A&M and like last season when he had a good opener, he struggled in Game Two which happened to come against California in a narrow 14-10 win. This is the best Bears team in six years and are undervalued. 10* (323) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our SEC Game of the Month. There are games where teams do not show a lot to not provide upcoming opponents too much and then there are others where teams just do not have it and South Carolina is the latter. The Gamecocks snuck past a bad Old Dominion team at home as they were actually losing late into the fourth quarter as South Carolina recovered two fumbles inside the 10 leading to its only two touchdowns with those two drives totaling nine yards. Last season, South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. It needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense as South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times and it could do nothing against the Monarchs. Redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers won the quarterback job and he was not good. Kentucky is coming off a 31-0 win over Southern Mississippi that was delayed and eventually stopped with 9:56 left in the third quarter so it could have gotten really ugly but the Wildcats got what they needed while not showing much of the playbook. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC as there are eight starters back on offense and while they are replacing the quarterback, there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff who was very solid in the opener. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be much better than last season and while they shut out a bad Southern Mississippi offense, South Carolina is not going to provide much more of a challenge. The Wildcats host Georgia next week so they want a complete game. 10* (332) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. All of the talk on Sunday was how good Notre Dame looked and how much of a player they are going to be in the upcoming CFP. While the Irish did look good against Texas A&M, that national television result is the perfect setup to play against them as this line is inflated based on the road win that was still a tied game with under two minutes left. The defense was solid but the offense left a lot to be desired and while they take a step down in class, they also have the letdown effect going against them. They came into this season as preseason No. 7 and if they can avoid bad losses, the Fighting Irish will be in the CFP once again with the expansion definitely helping along with a cakewalk schedule. Because they are not affiliated with a Power 4 conference, they cannot get a bye so just going on cruise control will get them the No. 5 seed. They have 15 starters back but are just No. 101 in experience and it could take this offense some time to get together. Northern Illinois rolled over Western Illinois by 39 points while covering the 35.5-point number so the Huskies played like they should have and still held back despite the gaudy numbers. This is the fourth straight season Northern Illinois will have at least 15 starters back and it is capable of its best one over this stretch with one big question being quarterback and they found their guy in Ethan Hampton who won the job in camp. He was 18-20 for 320 yards and five touchdowns against the Leathernecks and while the competition aided in that, it was great for confidence. The Huskies are going to rely on running Antario Brown who rushed for 1,339 yards last season and coming off an 8.6 ypc game and is running behind the No. 1 ranked offensive line in the MAC. Northern Illinois improved its defense by 11.8 ppg and 76 ypg from 2023 and it finished No. 23 overall and has a chance to be better with eight starters back along with solid depth. They can definitely keep Notre Dame in check to stay within this number, only the second time since 2005 they have gotten more than 25 points. 10* (335) Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Big 10 Game of the Year. The once proud Spartans program has taken a step back the last two seasons with a 9-15 record. In comes Jonathan Smith who turned around a fledging Oregon St. program with three straight winning seasons in his five years there but he walks into a tough situation that cannot be fixed overnight. His first job will be to try and turn around an offense that went from 31.8 ppg in 2021 to 24.4 ppg in 2022 to 15.9 ppg last season and looked awful in their season opener against a below average Florida Atlantic team. Quarterback Aidan Chiles followed Smith to East Lansing and he lacks experience and it showed as he was just 10-24 for 114 yards and two interceptions while leading the offense to just 14 points on 293 total yards with 63 of those yards coming on one touchdown run from the backup no less. Run blocking was already a concern for the Spartans, which underwent an overhaul at offensive line with four starters needing to be replaced and take away that one big run, they averaged 3.2 ypc. The Spartans have been a mess on defense for the last five seasons so holding Florida Atlantic to 248 yards may seem solid but the Owls were awful on offense last season and brought only four starters back as the Spartans This are a group that ranked No. 98 in pass defense last year but merely was not tested by the Florida Atlantic low-talent pass attack. That changes here. Maryland had to replace a ton on offense including the All Time Big 10 passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa but Billy Edwards was efficient going 20-27 for 311 yards and two touchdowns and while it was against Connecticut, there is not a huge upgrade here as the Spartans will have no answers. The receiving corps is loaded with six of the top eight pass catchers back as well as the top two running backs. Maryland has improved on defense yardage wise each of the last five years and the Terrapins bring back a strong front seven but do need some help in the secondary but they will not be have to worry about that here. 10* (344) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. We won with Georgia Tech in its opener against Florida St. in a substantial upset and the Yellow Jackets avoided the letdown when it faced in-state rival Georgia St., one of the bottom teams in the Sun Belt Conference, in a 35-12 win on Saturday. Now comes the possible letdown as the Yellow Jackets are off that big upset abroad and off their home opener so if anything, this is the spot where that happens. That is only a small piece in this play as Georgia Tech is now an overvalued team with another significant travel spot. We are definitely high on this team as head coach Brent Key has changed the culture of this program, something it has not had since the early days of Paul Johnson. They are more physical up front and quarterback Haynes King has shown he can make the plays but while this is not the greatest home advantage in college football, this is the first true road game of the season. Syracuse opened its season with a win over Ohio by 16 points which was a solid victory to get the new regime going. Syracuse hired Fran Brown who was the Georgia defensive backs coach for two seasons and considered one of the best recruiters in the country to right the ship of a program that has won more than six games only five times since 2002 with only one double-digit win season. The big name from the transfer portal is quarterback Kyle McCord coming in from Ohio St. off a very good season. He has the playmakers to work with so the offense should improve from its No. 88 ranking. He got off to a great start going 27-39 for 354 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. The defense finished No. 65 overall and the Orange bring back their two leading tacklers in linebacker Marlowe Wax and defensive back Justin Barron so this unit can and should improve. This is a revenge game for Syracuse which lost in Atlanta last season 31-22 that cost head coach Dino Babers his job but the Orange rallied under their interim head coach to become bowl eligible. If this was the first game of the season, we would see a line of Syracuse -3 so there is a flip of the number with the public perception forcing the linesmakers to adjust. This opened at DraftKings last Wednesday at -1 and was bet up from there. 10* (306) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both won their season openers albeit in different fashion but that puts Cincinnati in a great spot at a short number. The Bearcats found life rough in the Big 12 as they went just 1-8 in their first season, only defeating 2-7 Houston, while going 3-9 overall with the other wins coming against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS and Pittsburgh on the road so there is no opponent angle to avenge that loss. Things are expected to be a lot better this season. They had only eight starters coming back along with a new head coach and the uptick in strength of schedule led to their fewest wins overall since 1999. Now in the second year in the system of head coach Scott Satterfield while bringing back close to double the number of returning starters, we should see some positive progression. Cincinnati was very good offensively, averaging 426.1 ypg which was No. 34 but it could not get into the endzone as it was just No. 84 in scoring. Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby comes into a good situation with the top rusher and receiver back along with all five starters on the offensive line returning. Sorsby was excellent against Towson as he was 22-31 for 383 yards and two touchdowns. Averaging 24.1 ppg will not get it done as turnovers killed some good ball movement last season so mistakes have to come down yet they were guilty of three lost fumbles against the Tigers. The other side of the ball is what really hurt them as the defense allowed its most yards and most points since 2017 which happened to be its last losing season and Cincinnati hit the transfer portal hard along all three levels to improve their unit as a whole. Pittsburgh rolled over Kent St., which is one of the worst teams in the country as it is ranked dead last in the Week Two Betting Power Rankings so while Pittsburgh was favored by 24 points over the Golden Flashes, Cincinnati would be favored by 27 points on a neutral field so that is where some of the value comes into play. The Panthers racked up 55 points with a balanced attack and help from the special teams but again, we have to take that with a grain of salt based on the opponent. Quarterback Eli Holstein won the starting job and looked great but will have a challenge here in his first road game against a real defense. 10* (314) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Rutgers toyed with Howard in a 44-7 win as the defense dominated while the offense ran a vanilla style game that did not show much to future opponents as they ran the ball 46 times while throwing in only 24 times. After a 6-2 start last season, it was the quickest Rutgers had become bowl eligible since 2012 when it started 7-0 and last season was the first one with a winning record since 2014. It did not end well with four straight losses to end the regular season but those were all against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they closed with a Pinstripe Bowl win over Miami to bring some confidence into this season. The Scarlet Knights bring back a very experienced team, the second most experienced team in the Big 10 in fact, so they could present some problems and it helps having the second easiest schedule in the conference. The passing game was non-existent last season as Rutgers finished No. 127 in passing offense and they completed only 48 percent of their passes. They brought in Minnesota transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis and while he did not have a great 2023 season, he will be a big upgrade. He was 15-24 with three touchdowns and while the threw for only 147 yards, he did not have to unleash downfield. The defense kept them in games last season, finishing No. 16 overall and eight starters are back with experience across all three levels and we will see another solid effort against Akron. The Zips hung around for much of the first half against Ohio St. as it did its best in playing keep away but that only worked for so long and the Zips managed only 177 total yards despite possessing the ball for 34 minutes as the running game was non-existent. This is one of the worst teams in the country that will again be battling it out for last place in the MAC. They return the 12th least experienced team in the nation and has only nine starters back including just three on an offense that averaged just 16.3 ppg on 279 ypg as it losses both top quarterbacks, top two rushers and top three receivers. The Betting Power Rankings have Rutgers at -28 on a neutral field so there is a lot of value which is rare for these big numbers but the Scarlet Knights can name the score here with a bye week on deck. 10* (316) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Friday Star Attraction. The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and it is +1,600 heading into Week One. Last season, Philadelphia forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. There are three teams ahead of the pack on the hype train, the Texans, Falcons and Packers and these are the teams we will try to find early fade spots and this is one of those. The Packers opened 2-5 last season but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco. The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers and in this case, a little too much. They were +6,600 to win the Super Bowl coming into the season last year and now they are +2,000 while going from +2,800 to +900 to win the NFC and +350 to +210 to win the North. We are not sold. Going back to the playoffs last season, Green Bay was getting 7 at Dallas and 10.5 at San Francisco and now is getting only 3 on a neutral field against a Super Bowl contender. While the Packers are getting the hype, the Eagles are on the opposite end of that following their implosion last season and this is the buy low spot right here. 10* (454) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CFB Friday Night Lights. This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CFB Friday Night Lights. BYU got off to a 5-2 start last season but the Cougars could not handle the rigors of the Big 12 as they went on to lose their last five games and missed out on a bowl game for the first time 2017. They came out of the gate with a blowout win over Illinois St., more on that in a bit, and now face a real test and they will not be taking a breath until maybe the final game of the season against Houston as the remaining schedule is brutal. The win over the Salukis was a needed rout but they were fortunate as three of their touchdowns came on drives where they had to convert four plays on fourth down and were forced into 15 third downs, converting just seven of those and teams from the FBS should not be struggling against FCS teams to that extent so a couple failed attempts or field goal tries would have made that game a lot closer. BYU was only favored by 17 points in that game and now hit the road. Last season, the defense was good the first two games but they did hardly anything good after that, finishing No. 108 overall and No. 99 in points allowed. They allowed 231 total yards against Illinois St. but the Salukis did rush for 4.9 ypc which was their average allowed last season so it has not been solved. SMU got a scare in Nevada in its season opener but survived and blew away Houston Christian last week to get the positive mojo going before also facing its first real test as well but not to the extent the Cougars are. We bet the under for wins with the Mustangs but none of that was based on the nonconference as it was more wearing down in the rugged ACC, similar to how BYU struggled in the second half of its first season in the Big 12. This is the seventh most experienced team in the country and this will be a tough environment on a Friday night. The offense was ranked No. 16 while the scoring offense was No. 8 led by quarterback Preston Stone, who finished with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has his top seven receivers back as well as the top three running backs behind a veteran offensive line and this offense will be potent again. The defense was arguably better, ranking No. 12 overall and No. 11 in points allowed and 10 of the top 11 tacklers are back. 10* (302) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. Kansas City will be out for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl and it opens the season at home after losing in this spot to the Lions a year ago. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy although Brown will be out for this game. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league and has a great matchup here. Baltimore made it to the AFC Championship where it lost to the Chiefs and we certainly are not going to play the road revenge angle here on a team that has gone through a lot of turnover. The Ravens will be just fine going forward but the first few weeks could be an adjustment period which we need to keep an eye on. The Ravens do still have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine but early on, we are not so sure. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 15-4 although two of those losses have been in the last two seasons with the Rams and the Chiefs but this is still a great system play. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our ACC Game of the Month. This line has done what was expected as it settled in at 20.5 last Thursday and soon after the Florida St. loss against Georgia Tech, it dropped to 17.5 and has been going up and down slightly throughout the week and has come down a little more. It was a bad loss for the Seminoles, from a game management standpoint down to fundamentals. They struggled on defense to make the Yellow Jackets uncomfortable as they tackled poorly, did not record a single sack or a pass breakup and they will come into this game more aggressive. Playing their home opener after an embarrassing loss will help in that regard. Offensively, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei took a lot of the blame for being able to get the ball downfield, further review shows that he actually did, as his aDot average of 8.2 yards shows he was not just dumping passes off. It was the running game they should be more concerned about as they lacked explosiveness after contact. All of this will come together against a Boston College team put into a bad matchup. Last season, Boston College was the only team in the ACC with a winning record that had a negative point differential so 2023 could have been a little bit of fool's gold. Boston College was below average on both sides of the ball and while it brings back 17 starters, this is not the ideal opening situation. The offense is led by quarterback Thomas Castellanos who threw for 2,270 yards and 15 touchdowns and ran for 1,113 yards but he tossed 14 interceptions and the passing attack fell outside the top 100 in Success Rate as he was No. 94 in on-target passing. Kansas St. transfer Treshaun Ward take over at running back and they will trying and establish the run in what looks to be more of a pro-style offense. Defensively, the Eagles come in ranked between No. 13 and No. 16 on the three levels (compared to Georgia Tech which came in No. 8 and No. 7 on their back seven) so they will have trouble. The concern is the travel aspect, playing a game after playing in Ireland the previous week but they have had an extra two days so we are not uneasy about that. 10* (220) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Sunday Star Attraction. Many are down on the Trojans this season and for some pretty solid reasons. First, they are heading to the Big 10 from the Pac 12 and while that is not a huge upgrade based on the power ranking of the conferences last season, it will involve a lot more travel. Second, they lost a ton of offense from their roster from last season including No. 1 NFL Draft Pick Caleb Williams. Third, their defense could not stop anyone as they allowed 34.4 ppg and allowed higher than that in seven of their last eight games. These are three valid reasons to be down on USC but none will have a negative effect on this game for the simple reason that LSU is going through the same things with the exception of the conference move which absolutely has no impact on Game One and if nothing else, this game affects LSU more as they are travelling further to Las Vegas. While Williams has to be replaced, Miller Moss played in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville and he was great by going 23-33 for 372 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. The Trojans also lose their top two receivers who are in the NFL. Turning to LSU, it is just as bad off as they lost Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels along with two NFL receivers as well so this is a wash yet there is not a whole lot of talk about it which is absurd considering Daniels came off one of the best college seasons of all time. Overall, the Tigers are ranked No. 79 in returning production while USC is No. 99 so there is a discernable gap there but not huge. While that USC defense was atrocious, the LSU defense was not much if any better as it allowed only 16 ypg fewer than USC. All said and done, USC has the No. 104 experienced team in the country while LSU has the No. 99 team in experience. Looking at all of the factors where the teams are being analyzed, they are going through the same stuff and we will gladly grab the team getting more than a field goal on a neutral site. The Tigers come in ranked No. 13 in the preseason AP Poll which is meaningless except for giving the public something to talk about. In this regard, the Trojans are No. 23 so they might have that chip on their shoulder. 10* (218) USC Trojans

This is a play on the HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS for our CFB Game of the Month. UCLA is coming off its third straight winning season and this season has project written all over it. The Bruins lost head coach Chip Kelly to become offensive coordinator at Ohio St. and DeShaun Foster takes over where he was the running backs coach and for Kelly to leave, he might have foreseen what is coming. UCLA is considered an elite high profile program but that is questionable considering is has not had a double-digit winning season since 2014 and has had consecutive double-digit winning seasons only three times in the history of the program so calling them elite is quite aggressive. The offense dropped by close to 13 ppg from 2022 and while seven starters are back, there is no one of significance as of the four preseason All-Big Ten teams, they have only one player on those and that is a 4th Team wide receiver. Ethan Garbers takes over the full time job at quarterback but he is nothing special. The defense was the catalyst as the Bruins were No. 10 in the country overall and No. 12 in points allowed but they are going to see a drastic drop in those rankings. They have only five starters back and two losses up front are probably two of the biggest in the country with edges Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy. The Warriors brought some momentum into this year as they won three of their last four games and opened this season with a win over Delaware St. of the FCS and while they were not close to covering the massive number, it was clear they kept the playbook closed. Hawaii brings back eight starters on an offense that improved slightly from 2022 and has a chance to really explode this season. Quarterback Brayden Schager threw for 3,542 yards last season with 26 touchdowns and has his top six receivers back but did toss 14 picks and needs to be more consistent. He threw for 320 or more yards in half of his games and he kept it vanilla against the Hornets. The defense improved as the season went on last year and has seven starters coming back in what looks like a doable matchup. Blind better is what this number is based on and not what the teams are putting on the field. 10* (204) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. The offseason was filled with storylines about some storied programs that fell off the map coming back to prominence and one of the most talked about was Nebraska. The Huskers were close last season to having a breakout campaign but finished 5-7 with luck being on the wrong side. This once Blue Blood program endured its seventh consecutive losing season in 2023, the first one for head coach Matt Rhule and you can tell the culture is changing. Even last year could have been better with even average play as the offense was stuck in neutral most of the time yet the Huskers lost five games by one possession including their last four games where a win in one of those and they were bowl bound. Additionally, they were -17 in turnovers and not many teams can overcome that. They are the third most experienced team in the Big 10 and that does not even include quarterback Dylan Raiola who is a true freshman, the No. 2 incoming quarterback in the country, and was named the starter as Rhule confirmed how he has grown throughout the offseason and fall camp into a complete quarterback ready to take center stage this upcoming season. The defense kept the Huskers in those close games as in those five losses, the offense scored no more than 17 points and scored 10 three times. Eight starters are back from the unit that finished No. 11 in total defense and they will be stout again. UTEP bottomed back out at 3-9 last year and head coach Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons. They hired Scotty Walden from Austin Peay where he went 26-14 in four seasons and he brought over a lot of his coaching staff and also lured a bunch of his players to join him. The Miners could not score last season as it averaged just under 20 ppg which was No. 119 in the country as they scored 14 or fewer points in six of their 12 games. It does not look good with the top four receivers moving on while the entire offensive line has to be replaced with no good quarterback play. The defense was decent but their top three tacklers are gone and this is name the score game for Nebraska. 10* (190) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Contrarian Closer. Last season, head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in July and David Braum was hired from North Dakota St. where he was defensive coordinator and it fought through adversity with just 11 starters back and won its final three games to become bowl eligible and took out Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. They had a lot of intangibles go their way as it is a rarity you are going to find a team that finished three games over .500 and was outgained by close to 40 ypg. In 13 games, the Wildcats were outgained by their opponent in10 of those including a game against Howard from the FCS. Six wins were by one possession and the offense dropped 31 ypg from 2022 yet averaged 8.2 more ppg and the reason is that they had only nine turnovers including just one fumble. That will not happen again. They lose quarterback Ben Bryant and get Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright which is far from an upgrade. Defensively, Northwestern went through a stretch of allowing 20 points or less in five of six games and while they have eight starters back, there should be regression. The schedule is not great but doable. However, Ryan Field is going through renovations so five home games will be at a temporary on campus location with two others at Wrigley Field and Soldier Field so this is a big disadvantage. It was a great year for Miami as it went 11-3, the most wins since winning 13 games in 2003, and following a loss at Miami Fl. to open the season, the other two losses were by a combined eight points. The offense was not great last season and the RedHawks lose their top two running backs and leading receiver but they do bring back quarterback Brett Gabbert, who is projected First All MAC as well as four of five offensive linemen so the foundation is there. The defense led the way as Miami ranked No. 27 overall and No. 8 in scoring and it was legit down the stretch, not allowing more than 21 points in its last 11 games. Six starters are back with what is likely still the best defense in the MAC. MAC vs. Bog 10 usually means blowout, but in this case, false favorite. 10* (191) Miami Ohio RedHawks

This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. A lot of the talk is how the 12-team CFP expansion helps Penn St. more than any other team as it was unable to get out of the Big 10 unscathed and did not get the chances to play in the Big 10 Championship but that might not matter this season. What we do know is that Penn St. just was not good enough and now all of sudden they are going to be a surprise team by many and they are no doubt a talented and experienced team but this is more of a test than some might think. Quarterback Drew Allar had a 25:2 TD:INT ratio but completed only 60 percent of his passes, loses two of his top three receivers as well as three offensive linemen so it could take time. Playing the opening game on the road against a quality opponent is never easy and the Nittany Lions are well aware of this as they opened on the road in three seasons prior to last year and they went 2-1 with the two wins by 10 points combined and those games were against Indiana, Wisconsin and Purdue so it was not exactly elite opposition. West Virginia was picked to finish bottom three or four in the Big 12 Conference last season with head coach Neal Brown firmly on the hot seat. But the Mountaineers did not listen to the naysayers as they put together their first nine-win season since 2016 when they won 10 games and they look to build upon that. They got blown out in the opener against Penn St. before reeling off four straight wins prior to a brutal last second loss to Houston and they closed the season with five wins in their last six games, the only loss coming against Oklahoma. They are an experienced team, especially on offense as of the pieces are back, led by quarterback Garrett Greene, while the top three running backs and four of the top five receivers return. Overall, they bring back are No. 12 in the county in offensive returning production. While they have a test against Penn St. which finished last season No. 2 overall and No. 3 in points allowed but the Nittany Lions have a test also in a raucous environment going against a team playing with major revenge. 10* (172) West Virginia Mountaineers

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Virginia Tech is coming off its first winning season since 2019 so things could be looking up for head coach Brent Pry who enters his third season which is typically the make or break season and we think has potential to be the former as the Hokies enter the season as the No. 2 ranked experienced team in the country. After finishing No. 61 in total offense and No. 57 in scoring offense, this should be an improved unit with 11 starters. In a conference filled with incoming quarterback transfers, Virginia Tech has Kyron Drones returning for his second season as the starter and he has four of his top five receivers back that combined for 1,549 yards last season including Bhayshul Tuten out of the backfield who led the team in rushing with 999 yards as well. The Hokies scored 30 or more points in five of their last eight games. The defense improved by 55 ypg from 2022 and finished No. 20 in the country and brings back four of the top five tacklers. Vanderbilt will be the consensus pick to finish in last place for a sixth straight season as the Commodores have compiled a 3-38 conference record the previous five seasons with those three wins coming by a combined 17 points. Vanderbilt has not had a winning overall record since 2013 and a winning SEC record since 2012. Last season, they opened with a narrow win over Hawaii and then rolled over Alabama A&M of the FCS but then went on to lose its final 10 games of the season with most of those being blowouts. Yes, it is the SEC but the ACC is not that far behind. They do have an upgrade at quarterback with New Mexico St. transfer Diego Pavia who is a duel threat but the Hokies will be all over the film against Auburn after he beat the Tigers last season. The defense is the concern here as they have allowed over 35 ppg each of the last four years so there is a lot of room for improvement but just not the players that can do it. Pry opened his head coaching career with Virginia Tech in 2022 on the road to open their season at Old Dominion and the Hokies ended up losing that game 20-17 and he will use that as a lesson. 10* (199) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CFB Friday Night Lights. Wisconsin has been nothing special since 2019 as it has gone 27-19 with winning records in all four seasons but there is nothing to get excited about this team. The Badgers opened the season 5-2 but lost three straight games including a pair of losses against Indiana and Northwestern as big favorites yet they showed their fight and won in overtime against Nebraska to become bowl eligible. A win in the final week against Minnesota solidified its 22nd consecutive season with a winning record which is currently the most among all Power Four teams but beyond that, there has been nothing spectacular happening. Wisconsin has been average on offense and there is some buzz with Tyler Van Dyke coming in from Miami but he was nothing special there with better talent than he has here. The defense was above average which is always the case but the 343.7 ypg allowed was the most given up since 2007 and will have a test here. It was a rough season for Western Michigan but not much was expected as the Broncos were breaking in a new head coach, had only 10 returning starters and were the second least experienced team in the MAC. Western Michigan now goes from one of the least experienced teams in the country to one of the most experienced as it is No. 12 in the country. The Broncos have nine starters back on offense including all of the skill positions and will be led by quarterback Hayden Wolff who had average numbers but he took over the starting job after five games and the offense improved dramatically. Defensively, they had only two starters back last season and now eight return that will look to improve its 31.8 ppg allowed. The schedule is not going to give the Broncos much early confidence as they have Ohio St. up next but this is a bout development and they are a totally different team that got blown out at Iowa last season and they are catching a huge number here against a team that is not built to blow anyone out. Year two in the same system with a ton of experience back will keep this game closer that what the number is telling us. 10* (149) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. North Carolina and Minnesota come into the season with unlofty expectations and we like the home team with the better quarterback situation at a short price and more juiced up playing for payback. North Carolina was pegged as one of the favorites to make a second straight ACC Championship Game appearance and after a 6-0 start, 3-0 in the ACC, it was looking good with three more winnable games before Clemson but the Tar Heels lost to Virginia as a 23.5-point favorite and the tailspin began. They lost five of their last seven games to finish 8-5 and now expectations are not nearly as high, which may not be a bad thing but have a tricky opener. Quarterback Drake Maye is off to the NFL and there is a quarterback battle going between TCU transfer Max Johnson and sophomore Conner Harrell, who has two years in the system. Johnson spent the last two seasons at Texas A&M and last season he completed just 62.1 percent of his passes for 1,452 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions while Harrell started in the Duke's Mayo Bowl against West Virginia and went 18-27 for 199 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Head coach Mack Brown said that both will play which basically is saying that neither has performed well enough in camp to seize the job. The Gophers finished 6-7 following a bowl win as they were granted a spot in the postseason with a 5-7 record with some bowl spots needing to be filled and they got one thanks to a high Academic Progress Report (APR). That was big to add extra practices and taking out the 2020 COVID year, this is the best five-season run for the Gophers since 2002-2006 and with the sixth most experienced team in the conference, they could make some noise. Minnesota lost this meeting last season 31-13 as it could not do anything through the air against the Tar Heels with Athan Kaliakmanis going 11-29 passes for 133 yards and an interception and he transferred out. The Gophers might have brought in a weapon at quarterback with Max Brosmer who is a transfer from New Hampshire where he was a finalist for the FCS Heisman. Having the leading receiver and leading running back and four of five offensive linemen return should get the offense back on track. The entire defensive line is back led by ends Jah Joyner and Danny Striggow, and cornerbacks Justin Walley and Jack Henderson have a combined 67 career starts while the linebacking group is healthy after being ravaged by injuries last year so they are going to show huge improvements. 10* (142) Minnesota Golden Gophers

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Opening Kickoff. The 2024 season gets under way in Dublin, Ireland for a third straight season and it will be the conference opener for both teams. Florida St. made a CFP run last season and it ran the table but did not get in despite being undefeated as quarterback Jordan Travis was lost in the final regular season game which is why they were left out. It was unfortunate and the Seminoles embarrassed themselves in the Orange Bowl in a 63-3 loss against Georgia and they will be out to repeat but it will not come easy. Besides Travis, it lost running back Trey Benson, and receivers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell and those four playmakers accounted for 2,910 yards of offense. The defense has only five starters back and while still a strength, this is not an easy matchup. After going 10-28 under head coach Geoff Collins, who was fired four games into the 2022 season, Georgia Tech has been a different team under new head coach Brent Key as it has gone 11-10, which is nothing spectacular, but the culture change is evident. The Yellow Jackets went to their first bowl game since 2018 and defeated Central Florida 30-17 in the Gasparilla Bowl to secure a winning season that included a 5-3 record in the conference with two of the losses coming against Clemson and Louisville. When you think of offense, Georgia Tech is not going to be an answer from anyone but last season, the offense was the strength as Georgia Tech finished No. 14 in the country in total offense led by quarterback Haynes King who has huge upside as long as he considerably cuts down on his 16 interceptions. Additionally, 1,187-yard running back Jamal Haynes is back as well as the two leading receivers so this offense should not miss a beat. Key overhauled the defensive staff in the offseason and focused on improving via the transfer portal while bringing in new defense coordinator Tyler Santucci who had that position at Duke last season. The Blue Devils led the ACC in scoring defense with 19.0 ppg, good for No. 16 in the country. While it will not be a massive turnaround, the defense will show some big improvements. 10* (306) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. Two things that are hard to go against are first, Patrick Mahomes and his experience and second, a very solid Kansas City defense. Mahomes is Mahomes, no need to delve into that. The Chiefs bottled up the Ravens offense and while Baltimore has a strong offense, the 49ers offense is on a different level and can strike from anywhere. The 49ers were No. 2 in overall DVOA and No. 1 in offensive DVOA during the regular season and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle lead arguably the best skill position group in the league and they are all healthy and while Brock Purdy has not been on this stage, he carried San Francisco last week and he possesses a confidence not seen from many young quarterbacks. He quietly led the NFL in EPA Per Play and will not be phased. While the Chiefs defense has carried the team, the 49ers defense was certainly so slouch as it finished No. 4 in defensive DVOA and faces a Kansas City offense that has been off all season long. The Chiefs benefitted from Buffalo and Baltimore mistakes in the last two games and they were shut out last week in the second half in Baltimore and they cannot get away with that here. Kansas City has the more experienced team in this situation playing in the Super Bowl now for the fourth time in five years and Mahomes as an underdog has been nearly unbeatable but the all around roster makes San Francisco the team to beat and the line is on our side and will likely remain under the key number of three. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Championship Winner. Detroit did not exactly dominate in its two playoff games but came away with wins thanks to clutch defense and playing turnover-free football. The Lions key here is to slow this game down as much as possible as they want to avoid a shootout and to do that will be establishing a running game which they can do against a 49ers weakness of late. They finished last week with a very strong 61 percent success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. That will set up the passing and while much has been said about quarterback Jared Goff being much worse when not playing indoors and while true, this is not a horrible matchup for him. He is going to face some heavy blitzing against a 49ers defense that has a great sack rate but when Goff faces a team with a sack rate of four percent or higher, he has gone 15-4 ATS in his career. The Lions defense has gotten a lot of heat as it is considered a big weakness but they come in as the No. 1 ranked DVOA defense against the run and they will gladly accept having Brock Purdy beat them. The big story here is the status of 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel who is listed at 50/50 which likely means he will be playing and we probably will not know a definite answer until right up to gameday and with this number, it is based on him playing so if ruled out, it will likely come back down under a touchdown. 72 percent of the money is on the Lions yet the line has moved the opposite direction and that is actually a good sign as public money has not really entered the picture yet. 10* (321) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Championship Winner. Baltimore has been one of the more dominating teams in recent memory when it comes to metrics and after toying with the Texans last week, the Ravens poured it on in the second half. They are peaking at the best time and most importantly in January, they are close to as healthy as they have been all season. Baltimore is 14-4 overall and it has not been a soft 14-4. The Ravens have gone 7-2 against playoff teams, not counting the Week 18 loss against the Steelers where they rested starters, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. At home, Baltimore had 10 games and all were against teams that finished above .500 and again, not counting that last Pittsburgh game, it went 7-2 with the two losses coming on last second field goals. The Ravens are ranked No. 1 in total DVOA including No. 1 in Defensive DVOA which puts the Chiefs in a bad matchup. Kansas City snuck out of Buffalo with a win thanks to a last second field goal and the Chiefs are now entering their sixth straight AFC Championship but arguably this is the weakest of the six teams. They outscored opponents by just over five ppg and did not face nearly the same gauntlet that Baltimore did. The Chiefs are 3-4 against playoff teams and played only nine games against teams with a winning record including just three on the road with the two wins coming at Jacksonville and Buffalo while losing to Green Bay. The lone hesitation here is going against Patrick Mahomes who is now 8-3 as an underdog but this is the first instance of a game against a team this stacked and in a situation like this. 10* (320) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Buffalo jumped on Pittsburgh early and coasted the rest of the way, playing a fairly conservative game in the win and cover. Buffalo struggled through the first half of the season and began 6-6 and many counted the Bills out at that point but they are peaking at the right time as they have won six straight games and finally get the Chiefs at home with the previous five meetings taking place in Kansas City even though Buffalo was able to win three of those. This is the best time to get Kansas City at home with this being the first true road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes after having his first 13 at home not counting the two Super Bowls and it is not an ideal time for this Chiefs offense that makes too many mistakes and has been the least efficient that we have seen in a while. The Bills defense suffered more injuries last week but they will get cornerback Rasul Douglas back who was held back last week even though he could have played. The Chiefs defense has carried this team all season as they are allowing 16.7 ppg but this is a Bills offense that will have answers and quarterback Josh Allen has thrived in these spots as he is 20-6-1 ATS in his career against teams that allowed fewer than 20 ppg. This line opened at 2.5 -115 and the juice has gone up slightly but the number has not hit 3 although that will likely happen once public money comes into play so best to get on it sooner rather than later. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 66-31 ATS (68 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (318) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit picked up a very emotional win last week over the Rams and while there is talk about the Lions coming in flat, this is not going to happen in a Divisional Playoff game. The Lions did enough on offense in the first half to sneak out the win against one of the best teams over the second half of the season and the Lions have a better matchup and remain at home where they are 7-2 with those two losses coming in games where they won the yardage battle in both but lost the turnover battle 3-0 in each game. The one concern is the Detroit defense that has regressed throughout the season and it has been lit up through the air over its last four games, allowing 323 or more yards in each one. However, that has not led to much scoring as the Lions have allowed an average of 21.8 ppg and this has been a significant improvement after giving up 26 or more points in their previous five games with an average of 29.8 ppg. Tampa Bay is ranked No. 20 in offensive DVOA and while it put up 32 points against the eagles last week, that defense did not show up and the Buccaneers put up 22 points in their previous two games against the Saints and Panthers. Tampa Bay played a soft schedule in the worst division in the league and it went 1-3 against the top ten in the NFL with the only win coming against Green Bay which was the only win on the road against a playoff team. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the classic rest vs. rust argument as San Francisco is coming off its first round bye while sitting starters in its season finale against the Rams. The 49ers should be just fine as most important, they are as healthy as they have been all season and time off for an offense that is No. 1 in net DVOA and a defense that is No. 4 in net DVOA is not going to be affected. San Francisco ranked higher than Green Bay in seven of the eight major statistical categories with the only exception being passing yards allowed and that was minimal. While this is a big number, the last 10 San Francisco wins have come by at least 12 points. Green Bay came through for us last week in Dallas as it jumped ahead big early in the game and never looked back in the wire-to-wire win over the Cowboys. The Packers are playing their best football of the season but had a great matchup last week which is not the case this week. Quarterback Jordan Love continues to bring it as he is coming off another efficient performance with a 157.2 passer rating but faces a better equipped defense this week. The Packers have averaged 28 ppg over their last nine games so they come in confident and with momentum and they had the edge of getting out to that big start last week. on the other side, this is still the eighth worst defense in the league and Dallas failed to make adjustments yet the Green Bay defense was on the field for 89 snaps. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia endured a horrible ending to the season as it lost two straight and five of its final six games and no one wants a part of this team heading into the postseason. That being said, the Eagles arguably have the best Wild Card matchup of any team with a lower seed and there are the other doubters that want no part of the Buccaneers that come limping into the postseason as well. It was a weird freefall for a team that started 10-1 and had the NFC East in its grasp but they were unable to capitalize as it started a second half stretch with games against Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas is tough for any team to not only succeed but to recover after and Philadelphia could not do the latter. The Eagles defense fell apart and now sits No. 29 in DVOA but face the second lowest ranked offensive DVOA team in Tampa Bay which is only ahead of Cleveland as the Buccaneers are ranked No. 20 so taking advantage of the Eagles defense will not come easy. The Buccaneers were a flawed team this season, but they won the NFC South and they did it with a winning record but played in the worse division in the NFL. Tampa Bay went 4-2 in its own division and overall, played the No. 25 ranked schedule and while it has success against the lower rated teams with a 9-4 record against teams outside the top ten, it went 0-4 against the top ten teams. The Eagles may not be playing like one now, but that is where they still are. The Eagles offense will be facing a middle of the road defense as Tampa Bay in No. 14 in DVOA but the biggest factor they are dealing with are injuries but some are precautionary and the injuries to Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are not serious enough to keep them out. 10* (151) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. Early money has come in on Detroit but we did not seen a line move early but the juice indicated it was coming and eventually did Monday afternoon. We knew this line had to get at least to 3.5 with the Lions being a public team all season and yet this is a bad spot for the home team. Detroit was still in the running for the No. 2 seed up until the final week but needed both the Eagles and Cowboys to lose and because that did not happen, the Lions get a bad matchup in the Wild Card opener. After opening the season 8-2, Detroit went 4-3 down the stretch although that did include the controversial loss against Dallas and now it enters the playoffs with the possibility of not having tight end Sam LaPorta available. The Detroit offense is still very good but will have to rely on Jared Goff more than it would like to as the Rams have had a top 10 defense in DVOA over the second half of the season especially against the run and the interior can slow down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Offensively, the Rams are the No. 2 offense in DVOA in the second half of the season behind only the 49ers and have been No. 1 in EPA since their bye week after Week 9. They have gone 7-1 since then with the lone loss coming in Baltimore in overtime while averaging 31.3 ppg not counting Week 18 when the starters were out. Detroit has a defense ranked No. 13 in DVOA and regressed in the second half, especially against the pass. Over the last 20 years, home teams that did not make the playoffs last season are 13-39 ATS (31 percent). Additionally, we play against home teams averaging 385 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (149) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay made a late run to grab the final seed in the NFC playoffs while clinching the spot against the Bears in Week 18. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, the Packers have won seven of their last 10 games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 128.6, which was the fourth straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has 10 games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Seven of these have been over the last eight games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 6 in offensive DVOA and moved into the top 10 in Non-Adjusted Total DVOA. Dallas has good metrics on defense but have a tough matchup here. The Cowboys apply significant pressure on the quarterback which is bad for some teams but Green Bay has a great offensive line that is ranked No. 2 in Pass Block Win Rate and No. 5 in Adjusted Sack Rate. Defensively is where the Packers struggle as they have the second lowest DVOA of all playoff teams with some bad games in the mix but in 17 games, they have allowed fewer than 24 points 11 times. We all know that the Dallas offense has been great at home and it will no doubt move the ball but we know Green Bay can keep up and the line is reflecting the potent Dallas defense and based on the actual numbers, it is too big of a line in the postseason against a team playing very well. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game going up against an opponent after gaining seven or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (147) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Houston won three of its final four games and coupled with the Jacksonville implosion, the Texans won the AFC South. Their only loss over that stretch was against the Browns but that was without C.J. Stroud playing at quarterback and with a defense not close to full strength so we can toss out that matchup. Excluding Week 18, the Browns have allowed 29.4 ppg on the road compared to allowing 13.9 ppg at home so their overall DVOA of No. 2 defensively is skewed as it is No. 1 at home but a mere No. 23 on the road. And that includes the game against the Stroud-less Texans which was their best road game of the season on defense, allowing 250 yards. While the Houston offense was not at full strength, the defense was not healthy either. Houston allowed just over 20 ppg at home and while included in that was the 36 points allowed to the Browns, the defense was not close to 100 percent. This was the game where Amari Cooper went off for a franchise-record 265 receiving yards but he faced off against backup cornerback D'Angelo Ross while defensive end Will Anderson, Jr. and several other players on defense were out. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a great story for the Browns and he has playoff experience which is considered an edge over Stroud but the latter has not played like the typical rookie and he has the benefit of playing this game at home which takes a lot of pressure off. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (142) Houston Texans

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFP Championship Dominator. Michigan and Washington both survived on last second stops to make it to the CFP Championship with the Huskies getting the same amount of points as it got against Texas but has a much tougher matchup. The Huskies have not played a team this physical and that goes for both sides of the ball. The formula will be simple for Michigan on offense, run the ball and keep running the ball. The Wolverines have the best 1-2 punch in the backfield in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards who have combined for 1,518 yards and 28 touchdowns and while Michigan finished just No. 60 in rushing offense, it has a great matchup here. The Huskies are ranked No. 129 in Rush Success Rate Allowed, No. 119 in EPA per Rush Allowed, No. 132 in Line Yards, No. 128 in Stuff Rate and No. 96 in Power Success Rate Allowed. Simply put, Washington will get overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage. Shortening the game will be in the Wolverines favor and they can do it with long, sustained drives. Washington has an explosive offense as we all know but now will face a defense it has not seen this season. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 4,218 yards and 33 touchdowns heading into the Sugar Bowl and against Texas, he was 29-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns. He worked from a mostly clean pocket but that will not be the case here. The Wolverines are ranked No. 8 in Total Pressures and No. 2 in Pressure Rate and they were in the Alabama backfield all night. This is where Penix will find some difficulties as his Adjusted Completion Percentage drops 17 percent while throwing five touchdowns and throwing three interceptions in nearly 140 pressured snaps. As for the Michigan passing defense, it is ranked No. 3 in EPA per Pass Allowed and it held Alabama to not a single explosive play which came in with 35 completions of 20 or more yards. A clean game by not giving the ball away and staying disciplined, Michigan is No. 3 in Fewest Penalty Yards, gives the Wolverines the cover. 10* (288) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Year. Green Bay and Minnesota caught a break last week with Seattle losing to the Steelers meaning either team would make the playoffs by winning their final two games and it was the Packers who got the job done in Minnesota with a dominating 33-10 win. After a 2-5 start with things looking bleak, Green Bay has won six of its last nine games with quarterback Jordan Love completely turning his season around. Against the Bears, he put up a passer rating of 125.3, which was the third straight game he has tallied a rating over 109 and he now has nine games where he has eclipsed the 100 passer rating. Six of these have been over the last seven games after doing so just three times in his first nine starts. Green Bay have improved to No. 9 in offensive DVOA. Recent experience is going to help the Packers here as last season, they had an identical 8-8 record with a game against a divisional foe at Lambeau Field to earn a playoff berth but lost to the Lions 20-16. Chicago has turned its season around as well which has likely saved Matt Eberflus his job. The Bears have won five of their last seven games but four of those have been at home with the lone road win over this stretch being an ugly 12-10 victory at Minnesota. Chicago has done it with a vastly improved defense and while it did shut down Jared Goff and a potent Lions offense, of their other six wins this season, all have come against offenses ranked No. 22 or worse in offensive DVOA. Quarterback Justin Fields has been better since returning from injury but has only one game with a passer rating over 100 in the six starts since coming back. Green Bay has only five turnovers in its last seven games which negates the Bears defense that has 18 takeaways over their last six games. 10* (464) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. After opening the season 10-1 and having the inside track for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Eagles have lost four of their last five games and are now on pace for the No. 5 seed. They are coming off an awful loss against the Cardinals and now have to win and hope the Cowboys get upset at Washington with win the NFC East with the latter looking unlikely. The main focus now is playing a complete game heading into the playoffs no matter where they end up and that starts with the defense that has slid down to No. 27 in defensive DVOA. Whie they let a bad Cardinals offense do what they wanted, Philadelphia has a better matchup here to get right. The Eagles have failed to cover their last five games and are getting value here. In the meeting with the Giants on Christmas, they were favored by two touchdowns and we are now seeing an eight or more point line swing with no one wanting any part of them right now. The Giants put up a solid effort against the Rams as they had a chance to win but missed a last second field goal to make it three straight losses following a three-game winning streak. New York has covered its last two games and five of its last six after a 2-7-1 ATS start so the markets have tried to adjust and with an overadjustment here. The Giants have benefitted from 17 takeaways over this recent six-game stretch which has created favorable situations but that cannot be banked on here. New York remains No. 30 in offensive DVOA and have failed to reach 300 yards in eight of their last nine games. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. With Indianapolis, Houston and Pittsburgh all winning last week, Denver has been officially eliminated from playoff contention. We won with the Broncos last week but we expected a better effort on offense which was not the case as they tied for their second lowest scoring output of the season. Jarrett Stidham made his first start over Russell Wilson and he was not much better but he was far from awful and considering the players were likely playing harder because they knew they had a different quarterback, regression likely happens in the second game. Overall, Denver is ranked a respectable No. 18 in offensive DVOA but unlike last week facing a No. 29 ranked defense, the Raiders are ranked No. 11 in defensive DVOA, the Raiders are ranked No. 11. As for their own defense, the Broncos are No. 30 despite a solid effort against the Chargers. Las Vegas was also eliminated for a playoff berth after losing to Indianapolis but we feel there is to play for on this side. The Raiders have played well and seem to care a lot more since interim head coach Antonio Pierce took over and he is still coaching for a possibility to take over full time next year and players have been vocal about keeping him. The offense was good under Quarterback Aidan O'Connell who targeted wide receiver Davante Adams 21 times against the Colts, catching 13 of those passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns with O'Connell passing for 299 yards. The running game has been a bright spot as since moving into the lineup, Zamir White has 285 yards on 59 carries (4.6 ypc) the last three weeks. The Broncos are ranked No. 31 in rushing defense at 137.6 ypg while the pass rush is mostly nonexistent so Las Vegas can excel again while laying a short price at home. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Tampa Bay had momentum and a favorable schedule on its side but came up small last week in its regular season home finale, losing to New Orleans by 10 points which forces it to win this week to win the division. The Buccaneers lost the turnover battle 4-0 which helped put an end to its four-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield having an efficient game but he tossed two interceptions in there, the most he has thrown this season. Despite early money coming in on Tampa Bay, the number has gone down slightly and anything under a touchdown is well within play for what is on the line, the opponent and the situation. While the Buccaneers are 4-4 on the road, two of those losses were in Buffalo and San Francisco while the other two were against playoff bound Houston or Indianapolis. Carolina was shutout at Jacksonville after scoring a season high 30 points the previous week against Green Bay and the latter was the aberration as the Panthers have failed to reach 20 points in 12 of their 16 games. They are ahead of only the Jets in defensive DVOA and they have averaged just 14.8 ppg which is nearly a touchdown less than their opponents defensive average. Quarterback Bryce Young showed signs of life against the Packers, which have a defensive DVOA of No. 28, but he regressed against the Jaguars which was more in line for his entire rookie season. The defense has performed better than the offense but not by much and Carolina brings in zero home field advantage with its severely inflated attendance numbers. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (479) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The playoffs are on the line and the winner of this game not only guarantees a playoff spot but also keeps the AFC South title within reach with some help from Jacksonville. Houston shook off a loss against Cleveland as it easily took out Tennessee and had its 13th game of the season with one or fewer turnovers and that will be a factor here. The Texans welcomed back quarterback C.J. Stroud who missed two games with a concussion and he did not miss a beat, completing 75 percent of his passes, his highest of the season, for 213 yards and a touchdown and while he did not throw for a lot of yards, he did not have to as the Texans built a big lead. Houston is ranked No. 12 in net DVOA which is seven spots higher than Indianapolis and despite having a rookie quarterback, they have the edge at quarterback. The Colts have played better over the second half of the season as they have won six of their last eight games to get into this position. They have won three straight games at home and laying a short price which is going to make them a public play come later in the week. The offense has been up and down with Gardner Minshew, as since taking over as the full time starter, he has four games with a passer rating of 100 or better but also has five games with a rating of 76 or lower. One consistency has been the defense as they are No. 27 in points allowed at 24.5 ppg and gets even worse at home where they give up 25.8 ppg and 358 ypg. The Colts won the first meeting despite getting outgained but the Texans were just 1-4 inside the redzone in what was just the second game of the season for Stroud and he has clearly progressed since then. 10* (469) Houston Texans

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our Sugar Bowl Annihilator. Washington proved many wrong in the Pac 12 Championship as it came in as a 10-point underdog and beat Oregon by a field goal in a game it pretty much controlled throughout. There were certainly some struggles for the Huskies as they played down to the competition a few times but that is not a worry here and stepped up in the bigger games when needed. They have a dynamic offense as they are ranked No. 5 in the country in yards per play, No. 6 in offensive EPA, No. 1 in passing yards per game, and No. 11 in scoring offense. Michael Penix, Jr. was the Heisman Trophy runner up and while his numbers speak for themselves, he counters the one big Texas strength which blitzes around 30 percent of the time. Penix gets the ball out in a hurry as he has a pressure to sack ratio of 3.2 percent and this offense will be able to pick apart the Longhorns secondary. The Longhorns have played the No. 3 ranked schedule in the country but that is a skewed ranking. They faced five backup quarterbacks this season and while the defense was very good, it was far from elite as they ranked No. 26 in yards per play and No. 13 in opponent EPA. Against the pass, they finished No. 36 in opponent yards per attempt and now faces the best quarterback it has seen all season. Texas is not a great run blocking unit and relies on explosives and it is unclear how healthy wide receiver Xavier Worthy is as he was injured in the Big 12 Championship and if he is not near 100 percent, that is huge. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is playing great but his air yards/attempt is shorter than the national average and having a big down field weapon that is not healthy makes it harder. 10* (282) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Rose Bowl Dominator. It was a trying season for Michigan off the field but it overcame the distractions, and suspensions of head coach Jim Harbaugh, to roll through its season at 13-0 as it has been playing with a chip on its shoulder from day one. The one big hit against the Wolverines was an easy schedule that was No. 59 in the country but that is no fault of theirs and they got the job done. Eight of their 13 wins came against teams that went bowling so it was not all that bad. Michigan was terrific in the key areas as it was No. 1 in the nation in fewest penalties, No. 2 in turnover margin, No. 1 in scoring defense, No, 2 in total defense, No. 3 in turnovers lost and No. 4 in passing efficiency. That defense applies pressure and gets off the field on third down where it finished No. 13 in third down conversion percentage defensively. Alabama needs to be balanced but running the ball could be an issue as it will be facing a similar unit like it did against Texas A&M and finished with 23 yards on 26 carries. Alabama is very good on defense but not its typically great unit as the Crimson Tide are No. 21 in defensive EPA and No. 18 in yards per play allowed. Michigan is an above average rushing team but not elite yet should get a good push here and its key will be quarterback J.J. McCarthy who remains underrated despite being a former five-star recruit, a future first-round pick and a second-year starter. In the only loss for Alabama, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers lit up the Tide and McCarthy finished the season No. 7 in passing efficiency and No. 2 in completion percentage. 10* (280) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Divisional Game of the Month. It took 15 games, but the Broncos finally benched Russell Wilson with the writing being on the wall for quite some time. Since a five-game winning streak, the Broncos have lost three of their last four games including a bad loss at home last week against the Patriots as a touchdown favorite with Wilson coming off his ninth sub-200 yard passing game. It will now be Jarrett Stidham taking over the offense and because of the switch at quarterback, we have seen the line drop around two points or more from the opener. This is a great spot for Stidham to fall into as there is little film for the Chargers to look at and he faces a Chargers pass defense that has allowed the third-highest quarterback rating in the league this season at 99.1. Los Angeles is coming off a hard fought loss against the Bills two points on a last second field goal which was the first game for interim head coach Giff Smith and it was the classic game of a team getting up for the new coach in his first game taking over. It has been a rough season for the Chargers and it was the end for head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco after they gave up 63 points in a loss to the Raiders. Los Angeles has been the underdog in six games this season, and it has failed to win any of those contests. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (130) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Chicago is coming off a win last week against Arizona for its fourth win over the last six games with both losses that could have gone the other way and it is still not yet eliminated from playoff contention albeit a slim chance. This is the final home game of the season for Chicago where it has won four straight games with the two losses prior to those coming by a combined nine points. Since Week 10, the Bears have allowed the fifth-fewest points, second-lowest passer rating and fourth-fewest rushing yards which is a recipe for disaster for the Falcons that have struggled away from home. The Falcons are coming off a season-high 29 points against the Colts where they have scored 28, 24, 25 and 29 points and even despite that output, they have scored the ninth-fewest points in the NFL this season. The reason is Atlanta has been awful away from home as it is averaging fewer than 14 ppg where it is 2-5 including losses against Carolina, Tennessee and Arizona and one win coming against the lowly Jets. The Falcons defense has been what have kept games competitive as they have allowed the eighth-fewest yards passing per game and eighth-lowest completion percentage which may surprise many but this has come against the easiest schedule in the NFL. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 65-31 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (110) Chicago Bears