This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our CFP National Championship. This line opened at 9.5 in most places, dropped to 8.5 almost immediately then went up and down between 8 and 9 for two days and has settled in at 8 since late Wednesday. We are seeing the majority of the money being a mixed bag, with 56 percent of the betting handle on Ohio St. at Caesars and 66 percent on Notre Dame at BetMGM. Notre Dame wants nothing more than an ugly game and its only hope to win this is in a defensive game as a shootout is not in their favor. The Fighting Irish are facing the toughest defense they have seen this season and through the playoffs, they have faced defenses ranked No. 7, 8 and 9 in Defensive EPA and now they go against the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA. Notre Dame has scored 27, 23 and 27 points but has benefitted from turnovers and short field as they have failed to surpass 400 yards in those three games after staying under 400 yards just four times during the regular season. They will not change their gameplan of running the ball and eating the clock and the extra time off benefits them. The other side is the bigger concern and the plan here has to be to try and lock down the wide receivers and make the Buckeyes run the ball. Ohio St. has not gone over 185 rushing yards in any of their last 12 games because they have not needed to because of their elite passing game. Notre Dame has the defense as well as they are No. 1 in Defensive Dropback EPA so if the coaching can win the gameplan and control the clock while not turning the ball over, this is a game they should cover and can even win outright if it is a one possession game entering the fourth quarter. The meeting last season was the perfect blueprint and the coaching edge favors the Irish to execute that again. 10* (288) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our Cotton Bowl Annihilator. We are seeing an overreaction with this line as Ohio St. has rolled in its two games in the CFP as it jumped out to big early leads against both Tennessee and Oregon and coasted the rest of the way. Almost anyone and everyone is anointing them as the likely National Champions but with those last two games where they changed the dynamic of their offense, game planning becomes easier with more to look at and while executing is a different story, Texas has the team to do it. Slowing down a rejuvenated TreVeyon Henderson at running back is also vital. He rushed for 174 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 9.8 ypc against Tennessee and Oregon. The Longhorns defense was uncharacteristically sloppy against the Sun Devils, but they have the defensive line that stands firm against the run with the ability to get after the quarterback. The secondary is underrated with dynamic playmakers Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba that can slow down this revamped Ohio St. passing game. On the other side, the Longhorns went from rushing domination in their final two regular-season games, to struggling in the SEC championship and again against Arizona St. sandwiched around a dominant rushing performance against Clemson and that is what they need to regain here. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is coming off one of his best games of the season so getting back that balance can lead to the outright victory. Ohio St. is ranked No. 1 in the country in Net EPA while Texas comes in at No. 2 and this is with the Longhorns playing the slightly tougher schedule. Our two sets of power ratings have Ohio St. as a 2.5 and 3 point favorite so that is where the overreaction is and we feel these teams are much more even than what the line is dictating. Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games away from home coming off a non-cover where it won as a favorite. 10* (286) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our Orange Bowl Dominator. Notre Dame has covered 10 straight games and that is a streak we would like to fade but they were favored big in the first nine games and closed as a one point favorite against Georgia and are now slightly favored against Penn St. so winning by margin has not been an issue in this game and the last game. This game sets up very similar to the Georgia game as this is a strength against strength (Penn St. offense vs. Notre Dame defense) and slight weakness against slight weakness (Notre Dame offense vs. Penn St. defense) but there are integral parts within each of those that gives Notre Dame the edge. Notre Dame rushed for 154 yards against Georgia and on the season, the Irish are second in EPA/rush while averaging 6.7 ypc and 3.94 YAC which is No. 1 in the country. Quarterback Riley Leonard led the way with 80 rushing yards and while he threw for just 90 yards, he did not need to throw a ton or take deep chances. His dual-threat ability allows him to avoid the pass rush with an 11.5 percent pressure-to-sack rate which is No. 6 among Power Four quarterbacks. Notre Dame is 20-4 ATS when rushing for more than 100 yards since 2023. Penn St. was able to lock down the coveted No. 5 seed and has had the easiest path to the CFP Semifinals with games against SMU and Boise St. This is more of a run heavy offense as well as quarterback Drew Allar averages only 24.7 attempts per game which is No. 53 out of 57 Power Four quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts. It will be his ability to find his receivers in one-on-one coverage on second and third down which could dictate how long the offense stays on the field and we do not think he will have success. On the other side, the strength is in the secondary as the Nittany Lions are No. 7 in the country in yards allowed per dropback at 5.2 but Notre Dame does not need to throw to win as we have seen. 10* (283) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Mayo Bowl Annihilator. 13 teams from the ACC made it to a bowl game this season and the first 12 have gone 0-12 ATS (Louisville could be considered a win based on close) which is historically embarrassing so the Hokies are the last chance for the conference to save face. The transfer portal and opt outs are key components when looking at bowl games and both teams have some big losses with Virginia Tech taking the brunt of it as it will be down double-digit starters, including running back Bhayshul Tuten, edge rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland, defensive lineman Aeneas Peebles and quarterback Kyron Drones. Because of this, the line has more than doubled from the opener but in this case, it is too much. The Hokies fired defensive coordinator Chris Marve and Shawn Quinn will take over but there will be help from Bud Foster, a former longtime Virginia Tech assistant, who has been working as a special assistant to the athletic director and his knowledge can help shore up this defense. On offense, quarterback Pop Watson will get the start and he was great in his start against Virginia, throwing for 254 yards while rushing for another 48 yards. Early this season, Minnesota was favored big over Rhode Island of the FCS and Nevada, which went on to go 3-10, but in its other five games it was favored, it was never more than 6.5 points. Now they are laying double digits against another Power 4 team and we cannot buy that, no matter how much the Hokies have lost. Three of their five Big Ten wins were by one possession. Another reason for the move is that Minnesota has the longest current bowl winning streak at seven games so many are riding that. The public is and will be all over Minnesota and we are going against that in this overinflated spot. 10* (280) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI REBELS for our Gator Bowl Annihilator. This is a game that Mississippi will be out to prove something even though it is not against a top tier opponent. Leading up to the bowl season, head coach Lane Kiffin would not stop talking about the system and how his team was excluded and if any coach will run it up, it is him. The Rebels finished 9-3 with all three losses by one possession albeit not good losses as none were against real quality opponents but a win over Georgia offsets some of that. They were solid on both sides, finishing No. 7 in Offensive EPA and No. 7 in Defensive EPA and this against a schedule ranked No. 6 in the country. Mississippi is 8-1 ATS in its last nine nonconference games with the average scoring differential +39 ppg. Duke had a surprising strong season with an identical 9-3 record but it was definitely skewed. The Blue Devils had six one possession wins and was actually outgained on the season by over three ypg which may sound insignificant but when there are nine wins, it is telling especially against a schedule ranked No. 50 in the country. Duke will be extremely shorthanded with starting quarterback Maalik Murphy and leading rusher Star Thomas both out. Henry Berlin IV, who attempted one pass, will make the start at quarterback while no other running back had more than 299 yards rushing. Looking at the luck factor, Duke was the fourth luckiest team in the country with a lot of that due to six of its nine wins coming by one possession, four by a field goal or in overtime while Mississippi was No. 117 showing luck was not needed and was unfortunate in certain situations. The three losses by one possession play a big role in that. 10* (276) Mississippi Rebels

This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our Sugar Bowl Dominator. Notre Dame has covered nine straight games and that is a streak we would like to keep fading but they have obviously been favored in all of those games and now they are the underdog so that streak is meaningless. Georgia got the venue edge with this game being played in SEC country but it will be 50/50. Notre Dame defeated Indiana in the opening round 27-17 but it was a misleading final as the Hoosiers scored 14 of their points in the final 1:24 and that also skewed the stats. This is a strength against strength (Georgia offense vs. Notre Dame defense) and weakness against weakness (Notre Dame offense vs. Georgia defense) but there are integral parts within each of those that gives Notre Dame the edge. The big story is that Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is out and backup Gunner Stockton will make the start after throwing 32 passes all season. There is a disadvantage with his lack of experience but also, per PFF, Notre Dame is ranked No. 1 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and now get to face a backup quarterback. On the other side, Notre Dame is more than fine on offense as it is No. 16 in Offensive EPA going up against a Georgia defense that is No. 15 in Defensive EPA so it is a wash but there is an edge as Georgia has struggled immensely against duel threat quarterbacks and Notre Dame has one of the best in Riley Leonard. The Bulldogs have allowed a handful of quarterbacks that can run have success and the Irish will take advantage of this with Leonard who has rushed 135 times for 751 yards (5.6 ypc). Notre Dame is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (291) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This is a play on the OHIO ST. BUCKEYES for our Rose Bowl Annihilator. This is the rematch of the epic battle won by Oregon in Eugene by one point and we give the edge to the Buckeyes on a neutral field at a fair price and what better venue than the Rose Bowl. Ohio St. shook off its stunning loss to Michigan with a resounding win over Tennessee in the opening round as they jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead and never looked back. It was a bad draw for the Buckeyes as they now have to face the top seed and are favored and the line has actually gone up despite 74 percent of the money coming in on the Ducks. Ohio St. has the No. 1 ranked defense in Defensive EPA with the offense coming in at No. 4 and the Buckeyes have the No. 1 Net EPA in the country. Oregon rolled through its schedule with only a few blips along the way but the Ducks have been vulnerable at times on the defensive side. The Ducks have played three teams that are currently in the playoffs, Boise St., Ohio St. and Penn St. and they allowed 34, 31 and 37 points. While it can be said Ohio St. got a bad draw, it can be argued the Ducks got a worse draw despite being the No. 1 seed. Looking at the Luck Ratings, Oregon was No. 6 in the country so it was one of the luckiest teams in the country while Ohio St. was No. 92 showing luck was not needed and was unfortunate in certain situations. Here, we play against teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 63-27 (70 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +3.2 ppg. 10* (271) Ohio St. Buckeyes

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our Fiesta Bowl Dominator. Penn St. was able to overwhelm SMU in the opening round of the playoffs thanks to its massive home field advantage and now faces another team from a lower conference and is laying a bigger number on a neutral field. They took advantage of SMU mistakes including a pair of interception returns for touchdowns but this is not a team that has a lot of takeaways as they are just No. 59 in the country. The Nittany Lions obviously played the tougher schedule based on being in the Big Ten Conference and is 12-2 overall, losing to Oregon and Ohio St. Past SMU, what was the best win? Based on the power rankings, it was Minnesota which is No. 30 in our two sets of ratings and that was by a single points, albeit it was on the road. Boise St. is No. 31. The Broncos got a first-round bye, which has been under debate, after a 12-1 season with the only loss coming against Oregon in Week Two by just three points in Eugene. Playing in the Mountain West Conference certainly helped but this team is solid all around and they will rely on Ashton Jeanty who is by far the best running back Penn St. has seen. As mentioned, the Nittany Lions were able to take advantage of miscues from SMU, but the Broncos rarely make mistakes as they are tied for No. 2 in turnovers lost with only four fumbles and four interceptions. It will be up to the Broncos defense to keep this within reach and the one liability has been the passing defense which is No. 106 in the country. That being said, teams were forced to pass in garbage time because they trailed so the numbers are skewed and based on metrics, they are No. 53 in Dropback EPA, not great but better than the top line numbers. 10* (268) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our Sun Bowl Annihilator. Can Louisville break the streak? The ACC is 0-10 ATS through the first 10 conference bowl games which is the worst record of all time per Brad Powers tweet and this just shows the ineptitude of this conference. Syracuse accounted for the only outright win but the Orange were favored by 19 points so that outlier comes with an asterisk. Louisville finished 8-4 as it won its final two games including a blowout win over rival Kentucky and those four losses were all by one possession. The difference heading into the postseason is the transfer portal and opt outs and the Cardinals have lost a lot. They have three key opt outs on offense as quarterback Tyler Shough and receivers Ja’Corey Brooks and Ahmari Huggins-Bruce V, two of the top three in yards, will be out which are big hits for an offense that was No. 11 in Offensive EPA. It was a disappointing season for Washington as it finished 6-6 but it was sort of expected with a new head coach and only six returning starters so the Huskies basically had to start from scratch. They got thumped by Oregon in the season finale which was a big revenge game for the Ducks. As far as the roster goes, head coach Jedd Fisch said he doesn’t expect anybody to sit out. The offense finished No. 35 in EPA and it was the defense that led the way as they were No. 22 in Defensive EPA under coordinator Steve Belichick who is headed to North Carolina but will be coaching this game. Here, we play against neutral field favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won three out of their last four games. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (262) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our Music City Bowl Dominator. Both Iowa and Missouri come in with similar momentum, having won each of their last two games. The Hawkeyes offense improved considerably this season as they finished No. 57 in Offensive Efficiency but will be facing a sneaky good defense and there is an even bigger issue. The transfer portal and opt outs are key components when looking at bowl games and both teams have some big losses but Iowa has sustained the biggest with running back Kaleb Johnson opting out for the NFL Draft. Johnson rushed for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns this year and had 188 receiving yards and two scores. He accounted for 43.4 percent of Iowa’s offense this season so this loss is massive. Missouri is without receiver Luther Burden who is entering the NFL Draft and while he led the team in touchdowns, he was not the leader in yards so it is not as big of a blow as what Iowa is without. Missouri came into the season a top ten team but was unable to take care of the big guns on their schedule as the Tigers lost to their three toughest opponents in Texas A&M, Alabama and South Carolina. They have the edge in Net EPA, No. 23 to No. 30 and this is with Iowa having Johnson. The Hawkeyes played a very favorable Big Ten schedule with Ohio St. being the only team that finished in the top seven in the standings and overall it was ranked No. 55, just one spot ahead of Missouri. 10* (258) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS as part of our Saturday Three-Game Bowl Package. Colorado St. is coming off a better than expected season as it finished 8-4 which included six wins in their last seven games. One thing to note is the Colorado St. offense which has relied on running back Avery Morrow, who emerged as a difference-maker this season as the Rams changed a lot of their game plans when wide receiver Tory Horton was lost for the season. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is a talented quarterback who can take advantage of a RedHawks secondary missing key pieces. Colorado St. sold their full ticket allotment which is very rare for these lower-tiered bowl games. The Rams have had extra time to prepare as well. The RedHawks had a disappointing end to their season, losing 38-3 to Ohio in the MAC Championship and they could have a tough time rebounding from that. They had won seven straight games leading up to that and now will be playing without several key players. Left tackle Will Jados, wide receiver Reggie Virgil and wide receiver Javon Tracy all entered the transfer portal which will put quarterback Brett Gabbert in a tough situation and relying on the running game could not be an option after finishing No. 98 in EPA/rush and No. 117 in rushing success rate this. Here, we play against neutral field favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won three out of their last four games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +1.2 ppg. 10* (250) Colorado St. Rams

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES as part of our Saturday Three-Game Bowl Package. We have seen a big move in this game as Iowa St. opened as a one point favorite but the line has moved to Miami now favored by 3.5 points in most places as of Friday morning. This is another game of motivation and more so preparation with the Hurricanes out on the recruiting trail to work on their roster next year with head coach Mario Cristobal basically admitting that. It was a devastating finish for Miami which lost two of their last three games including a loss against Syracuse in the season finale which killed any shot of a CFP berth and that disappointment carries over. Quarterback Cam Ward said he is playing but that could change and might not play the whole game. The portal has not hurt them that much but motivation will be a key factor here. Iowa St. is also coming off a tough finish as it lost to Arizona St. in the Big 12 Championship which took it out of the CFP but the Cyclones are saying the right things that they are actually using that as a motivator. This is the first 10-win season for the Cyclones under head coach Matt Campbell who is in his ninth season and the first in the 127-year history of the program and they want to keep it going. Iowa St. enters the bowl game averaging 30.2 ppg, which ranks No. 49 overall in the country. The Cyclones defense is allowing 21.5 ppg, which ranks No. 33 overall nationally and will be facing a top offense but one that will be out some key players. 10* (247) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES as part of our Saturday Three-Game Bowl Package. North Carolina will be without head coach Mack Brown who was fired earlier this season and Freddie Kitchens will serve as the interim coach for this game. The Tar Heels do have the metrics edges for this game bit that is meaningless in this game with the roster taking numerous hits in the transfer portal and opt outs, losing four starters to the former and in the latter, they will be without three huge pieces in running back Omarion Hampton, defensive end Kaimon Rucker and defensive tackle Jahvaree Ritzie. This is a team we expect to just go through the motions and have little motivation to be playing in cold Boston. Connecticut will be the more motivated team playing in their own region with fewer players declaring they are leaving and most that did will still be playing. The Huskies had a great season at 8-4 with three of those losses coming by one possession, two of those in true road games at Syracuse and Duke. They have the coaching edge with Jim Mora who has said that his team will be ready to play and that is the biggest key to bowl season going along the peripheral of who is actually playing. Here, we play on teams with a money line of +135 to -155 averaging between 28 and 34 ppg and after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games going up a team allowing between 28 and 34 ppg. This situation is 24-7 (77.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.5 ppg. 10* (241) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our Las Vegas Bowl Dominator. We have seen a small line move in this game as it opened at 1 and has gone up to 4 in most spots with the USC roster taking a big hit. The Trojans lost 12 players to the transfer portal along with a pair of opt outs and this group includes all three starting wide receivers. Leading rusher Woody Marks has also opted out to focus on the NFL Draft. On the other side, USC has lost several defensive linemen to the transfer portal, while the Aggies are healthy across the offensive line. The Trojans improved on defense compared to the last couple years but are still struggling as they finished near the bottom of the Big Ten Conference in every major defensive category. Texas A&M closed the season with a pair of losses against Auburn and Texas to finish 8-4 which was an overall disappoint and the Aggies have made a commitment to the postseason. On Thursday, coach Mike Elko stated that this game represents a start to the 2025 season, especially for quarterback Marcel Reed, who looks to improve as a pocket passer and live up to his high expectations. They finished in the top 25 in both Offensive EPA and Defensive EPA and should give the Trojans fits on both sides. Here, play against neutral field underdogs after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. This situation is 67-15 (81.7 percent)since 1992 with a scoring differential of +13.0 ppg. 10* (239) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Armed Forces Bowl Dominator. This line opened as high as 9 in some spots and has plummeted with the Oklahoma roster devastated by transfers and opt outs. Overall, there are 16 players that will be unavailable including six starters, the big one being quarterback Jackson Arnold. True freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. will get the start his receiving corps will be made up of all freshmen for the most part. It has been a rough stretch for Oklahoma which did have the upset over Alabama but its only other win since the start of October was against Maine. The Midshipmen are enjoying their best season since 2019 as they started out 6-0 and until a lopsided loss to Notre Dame began a run of three losses in four games. They capped the season with wins over East Carolina and Army so they bring the momentum in as well as most stable roster. Quarterback Blake Horvath leads the way and coming off a sensational game over Army and the offense brings in the ground-and-pound rushing attack that can use clock and keep the game lower scoring which favors the underdog while Oklahoma is not used to facing this style of offense. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. This situation is 177-111 (61.5 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +3.1 ppg. 10* (234) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our Thursday Bowl Dominator. Arkansas St. is coming off its first winning season in four years after finishing with only nine combined victories over the previous three seasons. The offense is fairly average as the Red Wolves finished No. 69 in total offense and an even worse No. 101 in Offensive EPA and all of this against a schedule ranked No. 107 in the country. The other side was even worse. The Red Wolves finished No. 129 in total defense, allowing 460.3 ypg and finished No. 11 in the Sun Belt Conference in scoring defense at 32.3 ppg allowed. Bowling Green is playing in its third consecutive bowl game and was a final win away from playing in the MAC Championship game. The Falcons lost to Miami Ohio in their season finale to fall short but this team is motivated and dedicated. While there are a few players that hit the transfer portal, all starters will be playing and will be playing for the win after losing those last two bowl games. The Falcons finished second in the MAC in pass defense and gave up only 16 touchdowns in conference games which was second best. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +17.1 ppg. 10* (230) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our Hawaii Bowl Dominator. The transfer portal affected so many bowl teams last season and we are seeing it again this year, both bowl games on Monday saw all starting quarterbacks out so we had no interest in flipping a coin. The Hawaii Bowl is different but there is one loss that is a huge impact and that is San Jose St. will be without wide receiver Nick Nash who was a huge part of the offense that accounted for 37 percent of targets and receptions. That is hard to overcome and the Spartans do not have the roster to make up for it. South Florida finished the season 6-6 but did close on a 4-2 run with the offense rolling in five of those six games, averaging 45.8 ppg in those five games taking the game against Navy out. The rushing game will be an integral part of the game plan here against a Spartans defense that finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country which was ranked No. 90 overall. It was a great story for them which lost their head coach and got former Navy head guy Ken Niumatalolo and while his job was amazing in switching the system, that system cannot be implemented here. 10* (223) South Florida Bulls

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our CFP Saturday Dominator. The Volunteers head north and the line is showing that they are at a huge disadvantage but they are not. Tennessee runs the ball on 61 percent of its plays and that can totally benefit a decent sized underdog and the Volunteers have one of the top running backs in the country. Dylan Sampson has seven 100-yard rushing games in his last eight, the only exception being the game against UTEP where he was not utilized with just 11 carries. He averages 3.6 yards after contact which is incredibly good and is a huge asset against this defense. Ohio St. was exposed against Michigan which has an awful offense but the gameplan was worked to perfection and Tennessee can utilize the same plan and with a better defense on the other side. A lot of people are talking about the weather factor and while it will be cold, it will not be inclement weather which makes a big difference. Tennessee falls into a great underdog betting situation where we play on underdogs of +155 to +300 against the moneyline that have a winning percentage of .800 or better off a road win against a conference rival. This situation is 24-14 (63.2 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.2 ppg but we still prefer the touchdown spread to be safe. 10* (217) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our CFP Opening Winner. The expanded College Football Playoff is opening at Notre Dame Stadium and it probably cannot be more appropriate for the Irish to host the first playoff game. That being said, this team is overvalued after covering the last eight games. Big money has come in on Notre Dame as it is now at 65 percent and the line has been coming down which is what we like to see. We are still getting a touchdown with Indiana after opening at 8 and this game could be low scoring with some weather and that just favors the underdog. Notre Dame is coming off a late cover against USC in its last game, the only legitimate opponent it has faced with arguments to be made for Louisville and Georgia Tech but now comes in an opponent that coming into the season no one saw this coming. The Hoosiers caught a lot of flack for having an easy schedule which is legit but they have done what they need to do. Coming off the loss against Ohio St. brought in the doubters and they responded with a statement win over Purdue, granted probably the worst Power 4 team, but focus counts. And it begs the question of has Notre Dame had a tougher schedule? No. 64 compared to No. 74 so not really. We love what head coach Curt Cignetti has brought into this program and he is one to back over Marcus Freeman in a spot like this. Here. We play on underdogs of +155 to +300 against the money line allowing 2.75 or less rushing ypc, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. This situation is 32-19 (62.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (211) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Championship Dominator. This line has gone the right way as Clemson opened as the favorite in the early shops but it has now flipped to SMU laying a small number with 82 percent of the early money coming in on the Mustangs. We lost with Clemson last week as it fell to South Carolina but had a chance to win or at least tie the game but a fluke interception in the final minute in the redzone did them in. Clemson did go 0-3 against teams ranked in the top 30 in the Sagarin ratings which did account for all three of their losses but the makeup of this team is why we love them in this spot as this is a homegrown roster as head coach Dabo Swinney does not use the transfer portal and they now have an opportunity to get to the CFP which was not known after that South Carolina loss but after Miami going down against Syracuse. Program and culture are huge factors this time of year. SMU breezed through the ACC schedule with a perfect 8-0 record in its first season, a huge praise to third year head coach Rhett Lashlee but the Mustangs now face a real test. Six of the eight SMU opponents in conference games finished at or below .500 in conference play with the exceptions being Duke, which was a win in overtime, and Louisville, which was their best win on the season and they only outgained the Cardinals by 20 yards. This offense is the real deal but again, they have not faced a defense like this so they will struggle like they have not before. We often refer to the Luck Ratings and SMU was one of the most fortunate teams in the country as they finished No. 18 while Clemson sits at No. 57. 10* (117) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Big 10 Championship Enforcer. Even though Oregon is No. 1 in the country, the Ducks can be considered underrated as no one is talking about them because they just go about their business. They have had three close calls this season, opening with Boise St. and then Big 10 Conference wins over Ohio St. at home and Wisconsin on the road and while that game against the Badgers could be a concern since it was only three weeks ago, we can consider that just one of those games they did not show up with a big game on deck. They got their revenge last week against Washington and while this is a different conference, they will be out for this title game after coming up short last season against the Huskies but this is a difficult matchup however one they can overcome with a lot of that due to quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is making his 62nd start. He does have six interceptions but only one over his last four games and his 73.5 percent completion percentage is the best of his career. Penn St. backed into this game with the Ohio St. upset against Michigan last week but the Nittany Lions do deserve to be here with their only loss coming against that Buckeyes team by a touchdown. Offensively, they are good but not elite and will be facing a defense similar to that of Ohio St. that is deep on all three levels. It is the other side that is the bigger concern as while the Nittany Lions have an elite defense that finished the regular season top seven in all four main statistical categories, they have not faced an elite quarterback like this and no, we cannot include Will Howard into the conversation. James Franklin is 1-14 in his career against top five teams which seals the deal. 10* (120) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS for our College Football Game of the Year. Louisiana finished 7-1 to win the Sun Belt Conference West Division with the lone loss coming against South Alabama by two points and it was kind of a fluke as they dug a 24-3 halftime hole and scored 19 unanswered second half points but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 remaining that could have sent the game into overtime. Marshall won the East Division with an identical 7-1 record and 9-3 overall and it finished with the best ATS record in the country at 10-1-1 (11-1 in some cases based on lines) with the only non-cover being a five-point win against Louisiana-Monroe as a 10.5-point underdog. The Cajuns locked down the home field for the championship game based on a composite average of selected computer rankings which may not seem like a big advantage based on their 4-2 record at home but it is based on the losses. Loiusiana has a big edge on offense as it is ranked No. 32 in Offensive EPA and it is balanced, ranked No. 37 in Rushing EPA and No. 21 in Passing EPA. The Marshall defense is ranked No. 81 in Defensive EPA and in conference action, it had three good games but those were against teams that finished a combined 4-20 in Sun Belt games. While the Cajuns own defense is nothing special, they square off against a one dimensional offense that is excellent at running the ball but a limited passing game that is No. 117 in Passing Offense. The line has gone up from opening but we think it has plateaued with no more room to go without the public hammering a 10-1-1 ATS team which they will do once they get win of it but it is too early for the majority of the public to come in. There is also an intangible that cannot be ignored as we are hitting that point of the season where all loyalty is out the door. Sources have confirmed Marshall head coach Charles Huff is leaving Marshall to become the Southern Mississippi head coach and that likely will not be officially announced until after this game, but that leaked info affects this team and its psyche. This is what college football has turned into, and from a player standpoint as well with the transfer portal and it just messes with the player that actually cares. The home team should roll here. 10* (116) Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our SEC Championship Top Play. We have a rematch in the SEC Championship with Georgia rolling over Texas in the regular season at Texas so many will point to that in giving the Bulldogs the edge. Not us. That game was decided by turnovers as Georgia had the 4-0 edge and 17 of their 30 points were off turnovers with those three drives totaling just 41 yards so working from a short field certainly was the difference. The Longhorns have benefitted from a favorable SEC schedule with five of their eight games coming against teams with losing conference records and another against a team that finished .500 so they have not been tested as much but if they were tested more, they probably would have been just fine. They come in No. 2 in Net EPA and while the offense is the worst of the two units, it is still No. 6. The Texas offensive line is banged up, namely Kelvin Banks who will be playing on Sundays, and that is a big concern against this Georgia defensive front but look what happened last week against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets rushed for 260 yards on 47 carries (5.5 ypc) which can help the average Longhorns rushing game which was shut down in the first meeting but a long of that was situational. The health of quarterback Quinn Ewers is also a concern with his ankle but the benefit that Texas has that Georgia does not is a legitimate backup in Arch Manning who could actually hurt the defense more with his running ability. Georgia does not have that luxury after Carson Beck who has looked great the last two games but those were against two bad defenses and we are far from sold overall and he was awful against Texas in that first meeting with three interceptions. 10* (114) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Game of the Month. UNLV has won four straight games heading into the championship game and while the win over San Jose St. was a good one, the other three were against teams with 26 combined losses. That was the Rebels only win against a team above .500 and while you can argue Boise St. played a similarly easy schedule, they also beat San Jose St. on the road as well as Washington St. and this UNLV team on the road while losing to Oregon by only three points on the road. This is a recent double-revenge spot for the Rebels but we are not banking on that in this atmosphere. We cannot be concerned with the short number as some will call it a trap with so much on the line and this spread has a lot to do with the regular season meeting where UNLV played a great game overall and held Aston Jeanty to just 128 yards on 33 carries and we expect a bigger game at home. We have two awesome situations in our back pocket as well. First, we play on home teams involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 68-30 ATS (69.4 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +9.5 ppg. Second, we play against road teams involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +7.2 ppg. 10* (108) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Both Army and Tulane were slightly in the playoff talk, longshots of course, but now it is a chance to just bring home the trophy. The Black Knights get to host the AAC Championship thanks to their perfect run in their first season in the conference but they are underdogs here for a reason. Army has been an underdog only twice all season, in its second game at Florida Atlantic by one point and then against Notre Dame two games back, the second resulting in its only loss this season. While that does say Army is a very good team for being favored 10 times but it also shows the caliber of competition it has played and that is proven with its No. 135 ranked schedule as it avoided Tulane, Memphis and Navy within the AAC. Tulane was rolling along with eight straight wins, six by at least two touchdowns, but caught Memphis at the wrong time as it lost by 10 points as a double-digit favorite in what in reality was a meaningless game as the Green Wave had already clinched a spot in the championship game. Before giving up 34 points to the Tigers, they had allowed nine points in their three previous games combined and they come in ranked No. 21 in Defensive EPA to go along with their No. 31 ranking in Offensive EPA. The other two losses came against Kansas St., a controversial defeat, and Oklahoma so all three losses have been against legit competition. Losing the AAC Championship game last season only adds to the motivation. 10* (103) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our CFB Late Powerhouse. For the first time in 13 years, this rivalry is back and as meaningful as ever. This is a huge game for Texas A&M as it still has a shot at the CFP even with three losses because it is a pretty simple scenario where if the Aggies win here, they go to the SEC Championship and if they win that, they mess up the whole playoff system. The Aggies are coming off a brutal triple overtime loss at Auburn and while that could normally affect a team, it will not in this spot. Head coach Mike Elko has thrived in these spots as he is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog or less than a field goal favorite. Obviously if Texas wins, it will be in the SEC Championship and it is already a lock for the CFP Playoffs so there is not as much desperation. The Longhorns have benefitted from a favorable SEC schedule with five of their seven games coming against teams with losing conference records and another against a team that finished .500. The lone exception was a blowout loss against Georgia. This is going to be one of the best environments we will see this weekend and a night game only exemplifies that. 10* (414) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our ACC Game of the Month. This is obviously a huge game for Miami as a win gets it to the ACC Championship against SMU which keeps their playoff hopes alive but a loss here puts a trip to the CFP in serious jeopardy. Sure they should win this game they do not deserve to be favored like this as they are overpriced because of what is on the line. Miami had a three-game stretch where it won all three by one possession and has gone 3-1 since then with the three wins being blowouts but one came against Florida St., another against an overrated Duke team and the third against Wake Forest which is not going to a bowl game. The Syracuse defense will be tested against the No. 1 ranked Offensive EPA in the country. Syracuse is having a great season as it is 8-3 following a seven-point win over Connecticut with a possible peek ahead to this game justifying the narrow win margin. Their own offense can give Miami some trouble as the Hurricanes have been vulnerable in some spots on defense. This is a double-digit live dog in our opinion as two of their losses should have gone the other way while the Pittsburgh loss was only due to turnovers. 10* (366) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This is a great play on the number as the wrong team is favored in this matchup based on our power ratings where both sets have Rutgers favored by five points. The reason is that this is a must win for Michigan St. as it has to win to become bowl eligible as it sits at 5-6. The Spartans are coming off a must win over Purdue which should not have been as hard as it was as they defeated the Boilermakers by only a touchdown. This came after a 1-6 run as the offense has been absolutely horrible, scoring only 24 points against Purdue while scoring 19 points or less in those six previous losses. The one win over Iowa saw the offense put up 32 points but had to settle for six field goals. Rutgers became bowl eligible two games back with a win over Maryland and it is coming off a brutal loss against Illinois last week, allowing a 40-yard game winning touchdown pass with just six seconds left. We do not think that is going to affect the Scarlet Knights here though as they will be motivated to not end the regular season on a 0-2 run. Their not so great defense will not be overly tested here. 10* (385) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Star Attraction. If the season ended today, Notre Dame is the projected 7 seed and would host SMU so a win here and they will be guaranteed a home playoff game. A win does not mean a cover as they come in favored by over the key touchdown number with a lot of that based on not just the record but the fact they have covered seven straight games. The level of competition has been below average with the Irish being favored by double digits in their last six games with the single digit cover coming by just a half point over Louisville. USC became bowl eligible with wins in its last two games over Nebraska and UCLA. All five of their losses have been by one possession including a three-point loss against Penn St. in their only home loss. They are ranked No. 21 in Net EPA against the schedule ranked No. 16 in the country so they have played a lot better than their record shows and the change at quarterback has made a huge difference. They keep this one close with a chance to play spoiler against a hated rival that has owned them of late with Notre Dame winning five of the last six meetings in this series. 10* (438) USC Trojans

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. The scenario is pretty simple for Coastal Carolina. Win and they are bowl eligible. This is the Chanticleers third and final shot at bowl eligibility as they lost the two previous chances and have now lost five of their last six games. One of those does include a bad loss against Troy but the other four came against Georgia Southern, Marshall, James Madison and Louisiana, all teams with at least seven wins overall. They own the better Offensive and Defensive EPA in this matchup and yet come in as the underdog despite a respectable 2-3 road record. Georgia St. came into the season in rebuilding mode under first year head coach Dell McGee and were picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference East Division and it will do just that if it loses here. To their credit, they are coming off a win at Texas St. by eight points as a 23.5-point underdog and the Panthers could still be celebrating that win. That win could have something to do with this number even though it should not as Georgia St. has been a favorite three other times in conference games and lost all three outright and should make it a fourth here. 10* (345) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Vanderbilt became bowl eligible earlier this month with a win over Auburn but it has lost two straight games since then with those being pretty meaningless. Now the Commodores come into their biggest rivalry game playing with no pressure which means they will be playing loose and would want nothing more than to take out Tennessee and ruin its CFP chances. Vanderbilt and Northern Illinois are the only teams ranked outside the top 50 that have wins over a top 10 team. Quarterback Diego Pavia has been outstanding as a double-digit underdog as he is a perfect 8-0 ATS, winning five of those outright. All of the pressure is on the Volunteers and that makes for an uneasy road game. Prior to their 56-0 bye week win over UTEP last week, they failed to cover their previous three games and five of their past six. Tennessee has played a lot of tight conference games and there is no reason to think it will not be the same here. They have struggled with their offense on the road in the SEC, averaging just 18.7 ppg and overall, they have the No. 29 Offensive EPA compared to Vanderbilt being ranked No. 26 in Offensive EPA. 10* (362) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Duke is arguably the worst eight-win team in the country and at 8-3, the Blue Devils are actually getting outgained overall while outscoring opponents by just 4.5 ppg with five wins coming by only one possession. The main reason is that the Blue Devils cannot run the ball as they are averaging only 96.4 ypg which is No. 126 in the country and while they do make it up with a solid passing attack, it has not been dominating enough as they are ranked No. 105 in total offense and No. 74 in EPA which is actually just one spot ahead of Wake Forest. Unfortunately, the Demon Deacons will be home for bowl season as they come in 4-7 following their third consecutive loss. It was a brutal part of the schedule and not necessarily who it was against but the fact that all three teams were coming off bye weeks. The offense has been fine but it has been the defense that has been the letdown as they have allowed 40 or more points, all resulting in losses and the other two losses were by one possession with the one at home coming by just a point against Virginia. No need to worry about this Duke offense blowing them up. 10* (378) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFB Rivalry Rout. Clemson still has an outside shot of facing SMU in the ACC Championship game as if Miami wins, the Tigers are in as their conference season is done but there is plenty of motivation here. It shows how things can change in just a year as Clemson was favored by 7.5 points in Columbia last season and now the Tigers are favored by a field goal or less than that in some spots. This is obviously a huge rivalry that has surprisingly been dominated by the road team from a cover standpoint as the road team has covered six straight in this series but now we have a short home number for the first time since 2014. The recent play of South Carolina is keeping this number down as the Gamecocks have won five straight games to improve to 8-3 on the season and not many saw this coming. They own road wins over Kentucky, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt so it has shown what it can do away from home but this is a whole different ask. South Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games but in those eight covers, they were huge underdogs in three of those, favorites in four of those and the one short underdog price was at home. Clemson gets its revenge from a loss the last time they played here. 10* (348) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our C-USA Game of the Year. This is another game with huge implications for the championship game. If Liberty wins, it goes to the C-USA Championship Game while Sam Houston St. gets in with a win and a Jacksonville St. win over Western Kentucky with that going on simultaneously. The Bearkats are coming off a loss at Jacksonville St. which came after a narrow win at Kennesaw St. so they are finally back home to improve upon their 3-1 record here. Sam Houston St. has failed to cover their last five games which is adding value to their side as they come in as the home underdog despite sitting just six spots behind Liberty in Net EPA while playing a schedule 28 spots tougher. After starting their first season at the FBS level 0-8, the Bearkats are 11-4 since then. Liberty was the pick to win the conference and while it is still very much alive, the Flames have underachieved this season with many narrow wins against inferior teams while also losing to 2-9 Kennesaw St. as a 26.5-point favorite. Their 3-7 ATS record overall proves that they have been overvalued all season. They will be facing one of the best defenses in the conference and while going up against an offense that has struggled to score points, Liberty is No. 96 in Defensive EPA. 10* (330) San Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. A spot in the MAC Championship game is on the line. A win by Miami Ohio and it is in while Bowling Green is in with a win so it is pretty cut and dry and we will be backing the home team. The Falcons have won five straight games to get here including a pair of good wins over Toledo and Western Michigan as the offense is humming again. After scoring seven points in their only conference loss against Northern Illinois, Bowling Green has averaged 32 ppg during its winning streak. They have a test here but the same can be said going the other way. The Falcons have the No. 76 ranked Offensive EPA going up against a Miami defensive ranked No. 64 in Defensive EPA. They have been dominating the win column as the RedHawks have won six straight games with both sides of the ball looking good after starting slow. They are 2-3 on the road and while one of those losses was against Notre Dame, the other two against Northwestern and Toledo shows vulnerability. We have seen this line go up despite 91 percent of the money on Miami Ohio and even though it hit the key number of 3 in some places, we will gladly ride that reverse line move. 10* (318) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. It has been a struggle for Wisconsin as it was 5-2 including a 3-1 record in the Big Ten Conference but the Badgers have lost four straight games to put them in the position of having to win this season finale to become bowl eligible. The offense has regressed but the last game showed some promise with quarterback Braedyn Locke posting his best game of the season against Nebraska. Overall, they have played the No. 17 ranked schedule in the country and they return home following a 16-13 loss against Oregon in their last home game. The defense has had two bad games during the losing streak, allowing 44 and 42 points but both of those were on the road and they check in No. 43 in Defensive EPA. Minnesota became bowl eligible to open the month which was fortunate as it has lost two straight since then with the possibility of ending the regular season on a three-game losing streak. The Gophers have been one of the best cover teams in the country as they are 8-2-1 ATS and are now catching a short number where a loss likely means a non-cover. The Paul Bunyan Ax is on the line in this rivalry which is the most played rivalry in the FBS with 133 meetings being played. Minnesota is playing with revenge but we cannot back that on the road. 10* (322) Wisconsin Badgers

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Memphis has two losses this season, both of which were pretty bad considering they were favored by a touchdown in both games and now the Tigers come in as big underdogs, only the second time they have been underdogs. The first was at Florida St. in their third game of the season and we know that line was off but it matters none now. At 5-2 in the AAC, the Tigers have no chance at the AAC Championship Game after coming in as the favorite but the goal now is 10 wins and we are more about the overvalued line. Memphis is just 5-5-1 ATS but against, 10 of 11 games have been as favorites and all by at least a touchdown. Additionally, they are coming off a bye where they have covered 12 of their last 15 games. Tulane is looking for a berth into the College Football Playoff and at 7-0 in the AAC along with Army, the possibility is there. The Green Wave are also 9-2 with their two losses coming against Kansas St. and Oklahoma early in the season and they have won eight games since then, covering seven of those which is part of the overvalued portion. They enter the final week of the regular season ranked No. 17 in the CFP so it is a long shot and they will be and already are a public play based on needing to win with style points. We are not banking on that in this matchup as while the current winning streak includes six double-digit wins, we only consider one of those against a decent opponent and none near where Memphis is. 10* (311) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Star Attraction. Baylor has won four straight games to go from 2-4 to 6-4 and has become bowl eligible after missing out last season with its 3-9 record. The Bears have covered all four of these recent games as well and are now reaching that overvalued tag as they were favored by two at West Virginia last week and are now favored by over a touchdown which is a huge move based on the fact the Cougars and Mountaineers are separated by one game. The offense has carried the show as they have scored at least 37 points in all four of those games but it has been the defense that remains a real issue. Baylor gave up 29 points in its first three games, including three points twice but it has allowed 36 ppg over its last seven games and the offense cannot keep bailing that unit out. Houston lost to Arizona last Friday which snapped a two-game winning streak and it put the Cougars at 4-6 so they need this one and then next week at BYU which will not be easy. Since getting shutout in back-to-back games, the Cougars have won three of their last five games with still an inconsistent offense but now they face the worst defense they have seen in a while. As for their own defense, they are ranked No. 34 in Net EPA and can hold off this Bears offense so this is a strength against strength scenario where the defense has the edge. 10* (210) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the OREGON ST. BEAVERS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. The two Pac 12 members that did not realign with another conference square off and this has been a great series throughout the years recently. Washington St. was 8-1 and had the most outside shot of making the CFP if everything went there way but that scenario is done as the Cougars lost at New Mexico last week by three points so that can provide a letdown yet the Cougars are being asked to cover margin by double digits this week before their final home game next week. It has been a pretty fortunate season for Washington St. as it is ranked No. 20 in the Luck Ratings thanks to half of their wins being one possession victories, three of which were on the road where they are now 2-2. Oregon St. got off to a 4-1 start with the only loss coming against Oregon but it has been a complete downward spiral since then as the Beavers have lost five straight games, the last three coming by blowouts including a 28-0 loss at then 2-7 Air Force last week. As bad as it has been, Oregon St. can extend the season although they even know that is unlikely as they close next week at Boise St. so this is the final shot at a win most likely and why not against a rival and with revenge in play. At 2-8 ATS on the season, the Beavers have failed to cover six straight games and since 2013, teams on a six-game or more ATS skid are 64-43-2 ATS (60 percent). 10* (220) Oregon St. Beavers

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Arizona snapped a five-game losing streak with a 27-3 win over Houston last Friday to keep its bowl hopes alive. It has been a disappointing season for the Wildcats as they came into the season as contenders in the Big 12 Conference but it has been anything but. Arizona is just 2-8 against the number as it was overvalued at times and obviously could not cover anything when it was losing but now it has flipped as the Wildcats are underdogs at their biggest number of the season and at double digits no less. Despite the struggles, they are No. 60 in Net EPA while playing a schedule ranked No. 33 in the country. The need to win this one or the game against rival Arizona St. next week means nothing except to play spoiler so we will see an all-out effort. TCU became bowl eligible with a win over Oklahoma St. two weeks ago and now the Horned Frogs are coming off a bye week which could help or could potentially hurt, killing momentum. They have exceeded expectations as they were picked near the bottom of the conference and while they are not contending, it has been a success. TCU has been nearly as bad against the number as it is 3-7 ATS so they too have been overvalued and the cover against Oklahoma St. was their first as a favorite as the other two came against Utah and Kansas as underdogs. Covering a second straight double-digit number just does not seem feasible. 10* (187) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This matchup has not turned into a rivalry with only two recent meetings the last two years but these teams do not like each other. In 2022, James Madison rallied from a 28-3 deficit for the 32-28 win and last season, Appalachian St. scored a touchdown in overtime for the 26-23 win and ending the Dukes undefeated season at 10-0. That brings in revenge for James Madison but we are not backing that theory even though the road team has won the two meetings. The Dukes are having another solid season at 8-2 and still have an outside shot at the SBC Championship Game if they win out and Georgia Southern loses once and can actually host with this scenario along with a Louisiana loss. The road has not been kind of late with losses against ULM and Georgia Southern and beating Old Dominion beating Old Dominion by three points last week as a one-point favorite and now they are laying a touchdown. Appalachian St. is going to have its third straight season with five losses and head coach Shawn Clark might be in trouble if they do not win out and make a bowl game. The Mountaineers lost a chance with the cancellation of their game against Liberty so now they have to beat two of the favorites and they are certainly capable. They have won two of their last three games after a brutal three-game stretch and while not on the same plane with the Dukes like normal, this is winnable. 10* (152) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our MAC Game of the Month. Ball St. will not be going bowling for a third straight season so all that is left is to play spoiler and it gets the advantageous coaching change situation. Head coach Mike Neu was fired in his ninth season after a 3-7 start with the reason likely being he could not win the close games which has certainly been the case this season. Four of their seven losses have been by six points or less while another was by 10 points at Vanderbilt so this season could have been a lot different had they caught a few breaks. Even going back, this has been a case of the Cardinals at least being competitive as they have covered 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs. Bowling Green came in as one of the MAC favorites this season as it has held its ground as it is 5-1 heading into this week, trailing Ohio and Miami Ohio by a half-game. The Falcons are 5-1 with the lone loss coming against Northern Illinois and they have followed that up with four straight wins. Obviously, their big claim this season was losing at Penn St. and Texas A&M by a combined 13 points so the chance was there for a major upset and even with that and the conference success, they are just No. 83 in Net EPA. It is simple for Bowling Green, if it wins out, it is off to the MAC Championship as it hosts the RedHawks next week with that spot on the line while also playing with revenge from a 27-0 loss last season. Winning is one thing, winning by margin is another. 10* (134) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our Nonconference Game of the Year. Syracuse came through for us last Saturday as it travelled out west and took care of California, building an early 27-7 lead and holding on. The Orange are now 7-3 with two of the losses coming after blowing second half leads and the turnover game against Pittsburgh being the third. This is the third and final nonconference game for Syracuse after failing to cover the first two and they are now favored for only the second time in their last seven games, the other being a one point favorite against NC State in a seven-point win. Now they come in as a double-digit favorite in an awful spot coming off that California trip with their final game on deck at home against Miami in a chance to play spoiler against their former Big East rival. Connecticut has been one of the bigger surprises in the country as it too is 7-3 following its third consecutive win. The Huskies opened the season with a blowout loss at Maryland by 43 points which looked like some foreshadowing of what was going to come but head coach Jim Mora regrouped this team to go 7-2 since then, the two losses coming against Duke and Wake Forest by a combined eight points. Yes, two other ACC teams ranked right where Syracuse is and now apparently they are expected to just roll over. This is one they want with a game at 2-8 UMass next week could mean a 9-3 regular season and then a bowl win provides the most wins in program history. 10* (145) Connecticut Huskies

This is play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Mississippi is holding strong in the College Football Playoff Rankings as they are No. 8 with an 8-2 record with those two losses coming against LSU and Kentucky by only three points each. With the new playoff format, there are a lot more teams in play which means a lot of scenarios and that is going to overvalue many teams in the final two weeks of the season and the Rebels are there. Teams need to keep winning, the public will be backing those teams because of it and the markets have to adjust. The Rebels are getting 85 percent of the money and the line is working with that, having gone from a 9 opening to 11 in some shops as of Thursday night. Florida is in the midst of another mediocre season, its third under head coach Billy Napier who is still feeling the seat being warm but a bowl game will likely keep his job for another season. Part of that is the win the Gators had last week as they upset LSU to get to 5-5 so it needs just one more win which will likely be next week at Florida St. but we are still behind them here and the momentum and confidence that comes with it. Florida has played a schedule ranked No. 4 in the country and it still comes in ranked No. 28 in Net EPA which is really good considering who they have played. The Rebels were favored by 8.5 points over Arkansas in their last road game and are now laying double digits against a team ranked higher than the Razorbacks. 10* (142) Florida Gators

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Star Attraction. Michigan St. is in the midst of a late season collapse as after a 3-0 start, the Spartans have lost six of their last seven games including their last three and now have to win their final two games to get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2021. The good news is that they close with both games at home starting with the worst Power 4 team in the country. Michigan St. started this losing run with a tough loss at Boston College by four points while three others were against Oregon, Ohio St. and Indiana, another against rival Michigan on the road by a touchdown and the other against 7-3 Illinois on the road. The Spartans have played a schedule ranked No. 15 and have not been bad on either side of the ball as they are ranked No. 68 in Net EPA. Purdue cannot wait for this season to be over as it opened with a 49-0 win over Indiana St. of the FCS but they have lost nine straight games since then with only two of those being competitive as seven of those defeats have been by an average of 37 ppg. The offense and defense are both horrible and their Net EPA ranking of No. 116 is the worst of any Power 4 team. The list goes on and one and while the Spartans have struggled on both sides, this game comes at the perfect time before finishing the season against Rutgers. Despite 69 percent of the money coming in on Michigan St., we have seen the line come down. 10* (118) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Star Attraction. Eastern Michigan has had three chances to become bowl eligible in its last three games and failed to do so in any of those. Losses to Akron and Toledo came by a total of five points before getting blown out at Ohio last Wednesday as the Eagles scored a touchdown on their fourth possession but the offense was held to just 151 yards the rest of the game. At 5-5, Eastern Michigan has to win one of its final two games and this is the spot with it being their last home game and the finale being at Western Michigan. The metrics with Buffalo are very similar but the situational edge of this being their last home game, where they are 3-2, the two losses coming against Toledo and Miami Ohio. Buffalo has won two straight games to become bowl eligible after a 3-9 season last year. Three of the Bulls four losses have been by 31 points or more while two of the four conference wins have been by three points including the latest one at home against 3-7 Ball St. Buffalo is No. 4 in the Luck Ratings so it has been one of the most fortunate teams in the country and the line does not take this criteria into consideration. The Buffalo offense is shaky on a down-to-down basis as it is ranked No. 113 in success rate and No. 97 in EPA/Play and while explosive runs have been its strength with the Bulls top 30 in explosive rush rate on the year, but this is the strength of the Eastern Michigan defense. We have seen the number come down from opening and we are at the point where a win is a likely cover at most places for the Eagles. 10* (110) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. Kansas came into the season as a contender in the Big 12 Conference and following an opening win over Lindenwood, the Jayhawks dropped five straight games but they have come back to life. Those losses during that streak were compounded by mistakes as every game could have gone the other way if those games were cleaner. Kansas has gone 2-1 in its last three games including an upset against Iowa St. last week and that lone defeat came by two points at rival Kansas St. One set of our power ratings calls for Kansas to be a field goal favorite while the low favorite number for BYU has put the majority of the action on the Cougars. Kansas is ranked No. 134 in the Luck Ratings, making them the unluckiest team in the country. Conversely, BYU is the luckiest team in the country as it is ranked No. 1 in those ratings following another fortunate victory over Utah in the Holy War as it kicked a field goal as time expired. This came after another last second win over Oklahoma St. two games prior and this is going to catch up. They remain one of only four undefeated teams in the country yet are ranked just No. 19 in the latest Sagarin Ratings. 10* (363) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Rivalry Rout. It has been an interesting run for Wake Forest as over its last eight games, it has gone 0-5 at home and 3-0 on the road. The three wins were by a total of 10 points so it has not been overly dominating but this Tobacco Road rivalry should keep the close games going as we do not need the win with this inflated line. A win would be ideal for them though as they need to win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible and with a game at Miami on deck, this is a must. The Demon Deacons are right there with North Carolina in most of the metrics which does not correlate with the line. North Carolina was riding a four-game losing streak to fall under .500 on the season but it has responded with a pair of wins on the road at Virginia and Florida St. to get back over .500 and one win away from bowl eligibility with all three remaining games being winnable. That being said, this is the fourth time laying double digits, and the first since September, and the Tar Heels have gone 0-3 ATS in the first three. Actually, going back, they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games laying double digits. As mentioned, the rivalry has been intense with the last four meetings decided by six points or less. 10* (335) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our SEC Game of the Year. This is a playoff elimination game most likely as a three-loss Georgia team will be out while a two-loss Tennessee team will be on the bubble. This is the worst version of the Bulldogs we have seen in quite some time no thanks to an offense that is ranked No. 50 overall with an offensive line that has regressed after coming into the season as the No. 1 unit in the country. This has led quarterback Carson Beck being put into some tough situations and he has tossed nine interceptions in his last four games. It will not get any easier here for the Bulldogs that are now negative in points and yardage. Tennessee had the bad loss at Arkansas where it fell in the final minute 19-14 but has responded with four straight wins including the big victory over Alabama. Overall, the Volunteers have played a schedule ranked No. 54 which is not helping their chances should they lose here but winning outright, which has not happened here since 2016, is far from out of the question. Tennessee has the No. 2 ranked EPA defense and has allowed 19 points or less in every game. We have this number at 4 and a field goal game either way seems fitting. 10* (379) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. The Nebraska offense has taken a turn for the worst as it has scored 20 points or less in four straight games and it was time for a change. Head coach Matt Rhule fired offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield and hired Dana Holgorsen from outside the program to call the plays which is a rarity. The Husker have lost three straight games but two of those were against Indiana and Ohio St. on the road but they gave the Buckeyes all they could handle in a four-point loss. This change can rejuvenate this offense while quarterback Dylan Raiola has been listed as probable. Defensively, the Huskers are No. 27 in Defensive EPA. Things are not very good as USC either as the Trojans fell back under .500 to 4-5 following a loss at Washington. Their offense has not been as bad as that of Nebraska of late but they are making a change at quarterback as Miller Moss has been benched and Jayden Maiava will make his first start after seeing minimal action. The offense has not been a problem as the defense comes in No. 71 in yards allowed so this is exactly what Nebraska needs. This is another game with an overreaction line, in this case, because it is USC. 10* (401) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Syracuse fell to 6-3 following a six-point loss at Boston College after a comeback win in overtime against Virginia Tech two weeks ago. Two of their three losses have been by one possession with the exception being a blowout at Pittsburgh no thanks to three interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Orange are back on the road where they are catching a huge number that we have capped at 4 and there has been huge line movement with this one going from 6.5 to 9.5. It can be argued that Syracuse is at a disadvantage in that they are travelling across the country but they have already gone to Las Vegas and won while California is making the same trip this week after its game at Wake Forest. Syracuse has outgained eight of nine opponents. California was riding a four-game losing streak before posting back-to-back wins over Oregon St. and Wake Forest to get back over .500 at 5-4. The Golden Bears have been unlucky with some close losses which we do not like to fade but they are ranked 12 spots below the Orange in Net EPA by playing identical ranked schedules which offsets the narrow losses. 10* (371) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Hawaii has won six games only once since 2020 but it is on pace to do it this season with wins in its final two games, both against losing teams. The Warriors are 4-6 with three of those losses coming by a combined eight points against teams much better than what they are facing here. They nearly pulled off an upset at home against UNLV last week, losing by just two points as a 12-point underdog and while a win there would have made things a lot easier, a fully focused Warriors will be fine as they have outgained their opponents by nearly 200 yards this season. Utah St. is coming off a 21-point loss at Washington St. last week which will prevent them from going to a bowl game as it fell to 2-7. One of those wins came against Robert Morris of the FCS and the other was a two-point victory against Wyoming which will also not be going bowling. The Aggies offense has actually been pretty decent but their defense has held them back as they are ranked No. 123 in Defensive Efficiency while allowing the second most yards in the nation. With nothing to play for after a deflating loss, playing spoiler will not be enough against a motivated Hawaii team 10* (373) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Navy opened the season 6-0 but then got destroyed against Notre Dame and the hangover stuck with a loss in its next game at Rice by 14 points as a 13-point favorite. The Midshipmen rebounded last week with a 21-point road win at South Florida and this game begins a tough three-game stretch to close the season. They close at resurgent East Carolina and at Army making this their final home game of the season even if they win out and make the AAC Championship as it would likely be a road game at Army. Navy is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games as home underdogs against winning teams. Tulane is sitting ahead of Navy in the ACC by one game as it is 6-0 while also riding a seven-game winning streak. While the Green Wave have dominated most of the conference games, none have been against a team with a winning AAC record. They bring in a strong offense but Navy has held seven of nine opponents to 24 points or less and its own offense can take control as it is ranked No. 5 in Rushing Offense. Overall, Tulane has played a schedule ranked No. 91 which has led to its No. 35 ranking in Offensive EPA, which is just ahead of the Midshipmen which are No. 38. 10* (346) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. This is obviously a situational play against Ohio St. which comes in on a three-game winning streak following its lone loss of the season at Oregon by one point. The Buckeyes are coming off a win over Purdue 45-0 as a 37-point favorite at home and now they are on the road against a much better team than the Boilermakers and just laying a touchdown less. Ohio St. has two lookahead games against undefeated Indiana and rival Michigan and unlikely to go all out while going vanilla should they build somewhat of a significant lead. Over the last five years, there have been 13 road favorites of more than four touchdowns and they are 3-10 ATS. It has been an interesting season for Northwestern as it had no campus stadium this year with Ryan Field under renovations so it played its first five home games at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium with a capacity of just over 12,000 and finishes its home schedule with a game at Wrigley Field for this one and then closes at Soldier Field against Illinois. The Wildcats have willed themselves to a 4-5 record so it will have to somehow win here or against Michigan and then beat Illinois with this scenario unlikely but we will see their best effort against a team going through the motions. 10* (350) Northwestern Wildcats

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Utah is coming off a tough loss against BYU in the Holy War as it lost on a field goal with no time left to fall to 4-5 on the season. It could be a tough recovery spot but this team will be ready behind head coach Kyle Wittingham. The Utes have gone through another brutal season on offense with injuries but their defense has kept things close with three straight losses by one possession. That defense is ranked top 15 overall and in points allowed and the Utes are now catching their first double-digit underdog line in over six years. The reason is because it is Colorado and Deion Sanders who were the talk of college football last season before an epic collapse but they are back. The Buffaloes have won three straight games to improve to 7-2 and are in line to face BYU in the Big 12 Championship with Kansas and Oklahoma St. remaining in the regular season. Colorado is now laying double digits for the first time this season as we are seeing an overreaction line that has gone up. The Buffaloes are No. 24 in the Luck Ratings while Utah is No. 129 so a reversal of fortunes would not be surprising. We have this one capped at 6. 10* (391) Utah Utes

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. The Border War and the battle for the Bronze Boot take place on Friday with a lot more at stake for Colorado St. but that hardly means they are going to win and win by margin. The Rams are 4-0 in the Mountain West Conference and trail Boise St. by a half-game and with no meeting between the two, Colorado St. has a relatively easy path to the MWC Championship. Three of the four wins have come by 11 points or less and with the Rams having covered six straight games, there is value the other way. Based on our two sets of power rankings, the line should be 7. Colorado St. is ranked No. 103 in Net EPA which is nothing special and it has been very fortunate, ranked No. 13 in the Luck Rankings. It has been a tough first season for head coach Jay Sawvel and his Wyoming team but the Cowboys have been playing a lot better since their 0-4 start. While they have gone just 2-3 since then and will miss out on a bowl game, all three losses were by 10 points or less including two by a combined five points. They have played a tougher schedule while their Net EPA ranking is just 11 spots behind the Rams and Wyoming has been one of the most unluckiest teams in the country ,ranking No. 119. While there is no bowl game to play for, there is a lot at stake for these Wyoming players. 10* (317) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. It really can be amazing what a team can do when a head coach is fired. Most times, it means nothing as the team stinks but in some instances, the players gave up on their coach for whatever reason and get rejuvenated when there is a replacement. The latter looks to be the case for East Carolina as it has rolled in its two games since head coach Mike Houston was fired as it defeated Temple and Florida Atlantic by 22 and 35 points respectively sandwiched around a bye week. Two bad teams for sure but the run of facing horrible opposition continues. The Pirates came into the season as contenders in the AAC but bad losses to Charlotte and Army on the road put them at 3-4 overall and that did Houston in. The offense has erupted for their two highest point totals of the season thanks to a quarterback chance and that run should continue facing one of the worst defenses in the country. Tulsa is 3-6 so it has to win out to become bowl eligible and that simply will noy happen. The Golden Hurricane have defeated Northwestern St. of the FCS, a bad Louisiana Tech team by just three points and UTSA by one point after the Roadrunners somehow blew a 42-17 second half lead. That has been their only conference win while three of the conference losses have come by 32, 42 and 38 points. This is the third time they have been double-digit underdogs and they were blown out in the first two. As mentioned, the defense is mostly to blame as Tulsa is dead last in the country in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (315) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Star Attraction. Ohio has won two straight games to become bowl eligible for a third straight season. The Bobcats all three losses have come on the road and they come in a perfect 4-0 at home but have now become overvalued as they were favored by 8 and 3.5 points over Akron and Buffalo in their two other MAC home games. They have scored the most points of the season in their last two games, putting up 47 and 41 points but do have a tougher matchup here. Ohio is ranked No. 87 in Offensive EPA which has come against a schedule ranked No. 131 and are being asked to lay a big number, only the second time they have put down double digits against a team from the FBS, the first against 0-9 Kent St. Eastern Michigan is coming off a tough one point loss against Toledo as it missed a two-point conversion on the final play of the game, keeping it still one win away from bowl eligibility. The Eagles have put together solid season as their 5-4 record is backed up by having outgained seven of their nine opponents. We like the offense in this spot as the Eagles run an up-tempo style so more possessions and more plays gives them the opportunity always be in the game. They have covered seven of nine games and Eastern Michigan has been money in these spots when facing winning MAC teams as it is 13-2 ATS when getting four or more points. 10* (309) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our Big 12 Game of the Month. This was expected to be a one sided game entering the season but it has completely reversed with BYU now being one of only four remaining undefeated teams in the country. We have played against the Cougars on numerous occasions and they continue to cover, now being 7-1 against the number on the season. Now, the Holy War is back for the first time since 2021 and for the first time in a Big 12 Conference game. The Cougars are at the top with a 5-0 record with only one remaining game against a team with a winning record so the ride looks good but this is arguably the toughest. Utah came in not only as a Big 12 Conference favorite but as a CFP contender. The Utes opened 4-0 nut have lost four straight games and sit 1-4 in the conference with all four losses being a favorite. Now they come in as an underdog for the first time this season and in their biggest game of the year. Utah is on the opposite side of the ATS streak and have all of the value in a rivalry game that also has meaning for a bowl game as they have to win two of their final four to become bowl eligible. 10* (146) Utah Utes

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Star Attraction. This is one of two huge SEC games that will go a long way in deciding which of these teams are getting into the CFP. LSU is coming off a 15-point loss at Texas A&M to fall to 6-2 but is very much alive in the big picture still. The Tigers are back home after playing two straight on the road and have the huge scheduling edge of this being a night game in Death Valley. LSU is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games coming off a loss when playing against a team allowing more than 18 points and Alabama comes in giving up 18.7 ppg which is still solid but the Tide are not the same team. Alabama is coming off a 34-0 win over Missouri which was its first solid game in a while as it was 1-2 in its previous three games, the lone win being a two-point win against South Carolina. The first non Nick Saban season has gone as expected and coming off two straight road losses, this is another one. The Tide are overpriced and still getting 69 percent of the money. 10* (200) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Arizona St. is coming off a blowout win at Oklahoma St. last week, recovering from a loss at Cincinnati where it scored a season low 14 points and it is now back home for the first time in a month laying a short number. The win over the Cowboys got the Sun Devils bowl eligible but more importantly got them to 3-2 in the Big 12 which keeps them in the race for a chance at the title game which is now between eight teams with this being the first of three straight against teams they can leapfrog. UCF snapped a five-game losing streak with a 44-point win over Arizona, allowing a season low 14 points against an FBS team. The Knights have gone through some adversity with a bunch of the roster already out in the transfer portal but remain in the mix for a bowl game. Coming off that win, this is the time to go against as they hit the road after two straight home games and getting a short number. They need to win two of their last three games but coming off their best offensive performance of the season and now facing a top 25 defense, this is not one of those. 10* (152) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our AAC Game of the Month. We played against Memphis last week as it was favored on the road at UTSA by a touchdown and lost by eight points to fall to 7-2 yet has been one of the most overpriced teams in the country. The Tigers have failed to cover three straight and five of their last six games which includes cover losses in all three of their home games where they were laying double digits. This is now a buy low spot with a potent offense as we have them favored by close to two touchdowns in both sets of power rankings. The issue has been the defense as the Tigers are No. 86 in Offensive EPA with their last three games having bad matchups but now have a good one on their favor. Rice came into the season as an upper half AAC team but the Owls had a rough stretch where it lost five of six games that ultimately led to the firing of head coach Mike Bloomgren following a loss at Connecticut. The firing gave the Owls a charge as they responded with a 24-10 win over Navy, which was in a bad spot coming off a blowout loss against Notre Dame, to keep their bowl hopes alive. At 3-6, Rice needs to win out and we just do not see that panning out with its offense that is No. 113 in EPA and has scored more than 24 points only once against a team from the FBS, a 29-point effort at home against UTSA. The Owls are winless on the road at 0-4 while averaging only 10.3 ppg. 10* (118) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. We played on East Carolina two weeks ago, its first game after the firing of head coach Mike Houston and it rolled over Temple. Playing on teams making a coaching change has usually been a great spot as it provides a spark which can totally turn around a season. The Pirates came in as a contender in the AAC but at 2-2, they are too far back with Army and Tulane being undefeated yet are still in line to get back to a bowl game following their 2-10 season from last year. They close the season with games against North Texas on the road and Navy at home so this game long with a game at Tulsa next week are needed wins. South Florida is coming off a 23-point win over Florida Atlantic which was the third straight loss for the Owls and now have to win out to become bowl eligible. We do not see it happening even though the final three games are winnable with this one being the biggest test. Florida Atlantic is playing on a short week coming off its homecoming game last Friday and has fallen to No. 114 in Offensive EPA against a schedule that is No. 101 in the country. The Owls are 0-3 on the road and while the loss at Michigan St. is not looking as bad, defeated to UTSA and Connecticut were both blowouts and that is what we are expecting again here. 10* (112) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our ACC Game of the Year. Admittedly, we were low on SMU coming into the season coming off an 11-3 record last year and taking a big step up in a conference move to the ACC. The Mustangs opened with a rough win at Nevada by only five points and then lost at BYU but the undefeated Cougars are showing that the three-point loss was actually not bad at all. They have won five straight games since then including a solid win at Louisville which opened a three-game roadtrip and now they are back home for the first time in over a month and this is going to be a tough environment at night. SMU is 4-0 in the ACC, trailing Clemson by a half-game and tied with Miami and with a favorable closing schedule, it is in a place to finish undefeated in the conference. While SMU may be the surprise to some in the ACC, Pittsburgh is the biggest surprise in the conference as it is now 7-0 following a blowout win over Syracuse despite gaining just 217 yards on offense. The Panthers returned three interceptions for touchdowns which added to their fortunate season as they are now No. 3 in the Luck Ratings as they now have four wins that could have been losses. Now they are catching over a touchdown? Yes and for a reason. The line will make no sense to some being favored by as much as they are against an undefeated team this late in the season and the hook in some places will put people on the Panthers but do not be afraid of that hook to lay as it is there for a reason. 10* (366) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Rivalry Rout. We were against Colorado St. last week and the turnover bug caught us again, something that is impossible to put into a handicap along with special teams big plays. Colorado St. defeated New Mexico 17-6 but it was a misleading final as the Rams were outgained 453-334 but benefitted from a +4 turnover advantage and no team with even a positive yardage differential of over 100 yards can pull that off with those mistakes. The Rams have now won three straight games to improve to 5-3 on the season including 3-0 in the Mountain West Conference and are on pace to face Boise St. in the championship as they do not face each other during the regular season. There are only seven true conference road games this season because of the Oregon St. and Washington St. non-affiliations but still being part of the mix and the Rams have been the biggest beneficiaries avoiding the Broncos and UNLV. And now they come in as a favorite of only two points which is the reason to fade. Nevada came into the season projected to finish last in the conference and that is still in play but the Wolf Pack have been better than advertised. They are 3-6 and need to win out but with road games at Boise St. and UNLV, that will not be happening yet have been competitive with four of their losses coming by five points or less which will not necessarily qualify with what they are getting here, but all of those were against better teams. Nevada is ranked No. 95 in Net EPS, ahead of the Rams by playing a tougher schedule. 10* (396) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. We knew it was a rebuilding campaign for the Huskies following their National Championship chase last season as they returned only six starters after their 14-1 season. Washington is 4-4 following a pair of trips to the Midwest where they lost to Iowa and Indiana by double digits to fall to 0-3 on the road. The Huskies are back home where they are 4-0, the loss against Washington St. was not on campus, and have a great Pac 12 matchup where they check a lot of boxes and yet come in as the underdog. Despite the .500 record, Washington has outgained every opponent which is a rarity to begin with as they are one of only 21 teams in the country to do so and their No. 20 ranking in Net EPA backs it up. USC is doing USC things again as its defense is falling apart as the Trojans have allowed 461 ypg over their last three games. They came away with a cover for us last week against Rutgers at home despite winning the yardage battle by only nine total yards and are back on the road which is actually their best travel situation with their first three road games having to go to Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland. Even though there are shorter miles, this is not a team that should be laying points on the road against a quality opponent. We know this is now the Big 10 but it just sounds weird, it will always still be the Pac 12 to us but in any case, the wrong team is favored. 10* (378) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. While it is no longer penned The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, this is one of the more underrated rivalries that is still a heated one despite it having become one-sided the last few years with Georgia winning the last three and six of the last seven meetings. Blowout losses against Miami and Texas A&M put Florida head coach Billy Napier on the early hot seat but the Gators have bounced back with three wins in their last four games with the lone loss coming against Tennessee by just six points on the road. While they will be facing one of the best defenses in the country, the Gators offense has confidence in quarterback D.J. Lagway, who has taken over for the injured Graham Mertz who threw for 259 yards on only seven completions against a very good Kentucky defense. Georgia is obviously one of the best teams in the country yet again with their only loss coming against Alabama but this is far from the dominating team from the past few years. The Bulldogs are coming off a big win over Texas, which is another team that has all of sudden not being as dominant as most expected, and their other three wins before that against Mississippi St., Auburn and Kentucky were by a combined 29 points as favorites by a combined 75.5 points. We have this number at 12 in both sets of our power rankings so there is value on that as this Georgia team will always see a spike in their number just based on who they are and not necessarily what they have been putting on the field. 10* (353) Florida Gators

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Big 10 Game of the Month. Oregon is in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten as it improved to 5-0 following its second straight blowout win after its epic win over Ohio St. three weeks ago. The Ducks have moved into the No. 1 spot in the country thanks to dominating performances on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive EPA but other than the Buckeyes, they have not been tested with the exception of maybe Boise St. but that was in Eugene. This is not the most feared opponent but an awful situation as it is a conference test as we have seen many of the new west coast teams heading east and struggling out of their environment and the only real travel has been a trip to Purdue, the worst team in the conference and one of the worst teams in the country. Oregon has not played a road game in an environment like this in three years so none of these current players have seen this. We all knew Michigan was not going to come close to repeating what it did last season losing so much talent and its head coach so there have been struggles. The Wolverines lost to Texas at home but that was the second game of the season while another loss came at Washington in the biggest revenge game you will find this season. We cannot forgive the loss to Illinois but that was on the road and now they are catching an absurd number, getting double digits at home for the first time since catching 13 against Ohio St. in 2017. 10* (384) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We had Syracuse last Thursday night against Pittsburgh and it gifted the Panthers a win no thanks to quarterback Kyle McCord, who has been sensational this season, but he tossed five interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns. A bad matchup maybe or just a lack of preparation is a reason but we expect a much more focused effort at home where the Orange are back in Syracuse for the first time in over a month following three straight road games including a trip out west to UNLV. The Orange have outgained all eight opponents, including Pittsburgh where they won the yardage battle 381-217, and now come in as the underdog with the final score from last week playing a lot into the line. The Hokies were one of the most inconsistent teams early in the season but have turned the corner with three straight wins as well as riding a 4-0 streak against the number which is the time to go against that run. This is not the time to keep riding that ATS stretch as this has been just a very average team on both sides, coming in No. 84 in total offense and No. 61 in total defense and while the metrics rate them higher based on their strength of schedule, the same goes for the other side with Syracuse. We are on the situation of fading another favorite facing a team that has dominated all of their opponents and now back home. 10* (322) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We have two teams in completely opposite places with Army one of only eight remaining undefeated teams in the country facing an Air Force team that beat Merrimack of the FCS in its season opener but has lost six straight games since then. Counting that opening win over the Warriors which they did not cover, the Falcons are 0-7 against the number on the season and are now catching their biggest number and justifiably so. Coming into the season, this was kind of expected with just six starters back but not to this extent and now Air Force has to win out to become bowl eligible which likely will not happen but they do not want to end it here. Army was 6-0 against the number and failed to cover its first game two weeks ago by a half-point. This obviously plays into the number and in a game based on styles, there will not be many possessions so covering a large number with such a low total is difficult. Another factor is that Air Force has been the tenth unluckiest team in the country and Luck Ratings are a factor this late into the season as lines are made from records first and foremost because that goes with public perception which gives us value. This situation could not be more similar to last season as Air Force came into this matchup with an 8-0 record and favored at home by 18.5 points over Army and lost outright 23-3. Do we see an outright Air Force win this time around? Probably not but we will gladly grab this inflated number. 10* (329) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. This is the time for UTSA to get up off the mat and salvage its season as it is coming off one of the worst losses you will ever see. The Roadrunners had a 35-7 lead at halftime while holding a 25-point lead late in the third quarter but were outscored 29-3 and ended up losing by a point. It was just an epic collapse of allowing big plays as UTSA still outgained the Golden Hurricane 546-433 and it is that offense that is the factor here. This comes down to coaching and we firmly believe that UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor is one of the most underrated coaches in the country who came in 39-14 as the Roadrunners head coach. A lot of teams will let that loss linger but not this team and not here. We played against Memphis last week as it was overpriced against Charlotte and escaped with a five-point win as a 17-point favorite. The defense remains the concern as the Tigers have had some great performances against teams that cannot move the ball but have struggled against teams that can and they head to one of the tougher environments in a vulnerable spot. Memphis is ranked No. 81 in Defensive EPA which is horrible considering some of their solid performances. The Roadrunners have won 26 of their last 26 home games and while we do not need the outright win here, it is still in play as we are catching the touchdown as insurance. 10* (358) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our CFB Star Attraction. This is the game of the week and Ohio St. heads to Happy Valley looking to make it eight straight wins over Penn St. Starting a perfect 7-0 is ideal for the Nittany Lions as they are in a place where they have not been in the past, basically a lock for the playoffs no matter what happens here. Penn St. has started 5-0, 5-0 and 6-0 the last three seasons but failed to keep it going with three conference losses to teams ranked in the top five and then were not able to fully recover but the expansion arguably helps them more than arguably any other team in the country. That being said, they are not going to lay down here and this is the best version of the Nittany Lions that can finally take down the Buckeyes. This was a wait and see during the week but the news we wanted was ideal as Penn St. starting quarterback Drew Allar was an active participant at a practice viewing window opened to reporters on Wednesday. This is a game he will not sit out if he can go. The Buckeyes come in as the best team in the country as far as metrics are concerned as they are No. 1 in Net EPA with both sides being in the top three. We think Ohio St. was somewhat exposed last week against Nebraska and some will call it looking ahead but we do not think that is the case based on coaching. The EPA numbers are great but they are against a schedule ranked No. 52 and this is one of these other spots where we are catching an underdog that has outgained every opponent and having played a tougher schedule. 10* (398) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Connecticut has already exceeded expectations as they came in with a 4.5 o/u win total and surpassed that coming off its fifth win with a 17-10 victory over Rice on Saturday. This is their sixth straight home game which is a weird scheduling construct but it is an advantage as there has been no travel since September 14. This is their final home game of the season as they close the season with three straight road games so this is a great setup to become bowl eligible even though the Huskies will be favored in two of those three road games but they want to do it on their home field. The three losses came against three ACC teams and while they were not against the best ACC teams, they are still from a P4 conference and two of those were by eight points combined against Duke and Wake Forest. Georgia St. came into the season picked to finish last in the SBC East Division as they had just 10 returning starters, possessed the No. 113 roster in experience and brought in a new head coach late in the spring. The Panthers are now starting to play like it. They opened the season 2-1 which did include an upset win over Vanderbilt but the other win came against Chattanooga of the FCS by only three points. They have lost their last four games since then and they are now all but done. They too had a nice schedule starting in September with four straight home games but this marks their third straight road game with one more on deck at James Madison so there is no letup. Georgia St. is No. 104 in Net EPA with a really bad defense and the huskies have big edges on both sides. 10* (316) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our CUSA Game of the Month. This line has flipped as Jacksonville St. opened as a one point favorite but Liberty has moved into that role by as much as 2.5 points in some places. A lot of this is due to the expectation of the Flames bouncing back from one of the biggest upsets in college football this season as they lost at Kennesaw St. by a field goal as 26.5-point favorites. Despite their 5-1 record, they have not been playing like it not even taking into account that loss as they have played a lot of closer than expected games and this is just their second game as single digit favorites, this being by far the lowest. They surely can bounce back here but even though they have the higher rankings in both Offensive and Defensive EPA, this is due to playing a schedule ranked No. 171, the easiest schedule among all FBS teams. Jacksonville St. is playing its best football at the right time as it has won four straight games by an average of 34.8 ppg following a 0-3 start to the season. Granted, the wins have come against four of the five worst teams in Conference USA but winning is winning and winning big is even more important. We are now seeing close to a three-touchdown line swing from their last two games but the Gamecocks are absolutely rolling and the confidence and momentum factors are huge this time of season. They are not far behind Liberty in EPA despite playing the tougher schedule and they are No. 115 in the Luck Rankings so they have been one of the more unluckier teams in the country. The power ranking do call for them to be favored and with where this line is going, they could be catching a field goal at some point. 10* (307) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CFB Tuesday Night Enforcer. First place is on the line in the Sun Belt Conference, at least a share of it, if Texas St. comes away with the win as that would make it seven teams tied at the top at 3-1 while a Louisiana win would put keep the Cajuns the lone undefeated team in the conference. The Bobcats are back home following a loss at Old Dominion 10 days ago to fall to 2-1 in the SBC but they do own the most impressive conference win of these two teams with a 41-9 win over Arkansas St. at home where they are 3-1, the lone defeat coming against Arizona St. by three points. Texas St. is No. 57 in Net EPA which is only four spots behind Louisiana despite playing a tougher schedule. The real significant disparity is that the Bobcats are No. 128 in the Luck Rankings, making them the seventh unluckiest team in the nation. The Cajuns have won four straight games leading off with a three-point win at Wake Forest which was their best win of the season by far. Their first two victories came against Grambling St. of the FCS and new FBS team Kennesaw St. while their three conference victories have been against Coastal Carolina, Southern Mississippi and Appalachian St. which are a combined 2-9 in the SBC and all of those were by just 10 points each. The easy start to the schedule has helped the Cajuns start 4-0 on the road and this is now the toughest test with Texas St. ranked ahead of Wake Forest. Louisiana is on the other side of the number in the Luck Rankings as they are No. 18 so they have been pretty fortunate. 10* (306) Texas St. Bobcats

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. This is a great buy low spot on Utah as it is coming off its third straight loss following a 4-0 start. The Utes offense has regressed during this skid but now has something to prove after offensive coordinator resigned on Sunday, basically giving up on his unit, and Mike Bajakian will take over play calling duties. He has been in place as the offensive analyst so he knows the team and how to overcome the injuries. This is still one of the best offensive lines in the conference and while quarterback Isaac Wilson is still finding his footing in replacing Cam Rising, running back Micah Bernard is the leader of the offense that is going through him through the transition. The Utes still rely on their strong defense and linebacker Karene Reid is one of the leaders of this unit and after missing four games, he returned last week. They have an excellent matchup this week against a Houston offense that continues to struggle. Following their 42-14 loss against Kansas last week, the Cougars are 2-5 and they have scored 14 points or less in all five of those losses including getting shut out twice. Houston is No. 98 in Offensive EPA and while their defense rates better, they are coming off their worst game of the season and that is coming after a bye week. Utah has outgained six of its seven opponents this season despite the recent offensive struggles and this is the ideal spot to regain its identity. 10* (167) Utah Utes

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our MWC Game of the Month. The Lobos were not expected to do much this season and they have not exactly done that but they have turned their season around as after a 0-4 start, they have won three straight games with the offense leading the way. New Mexico has scored at least 50 points in all three of their victories and the chance of that streak to continue here is in play against a defense ranked No. 116 in Net EPA. It took a little bit for first year head coach Bronco Mendenhall to find out how this team can win but he is a proven coach where he had huge success at BYU and turned around Virginia before suddenly retiring at the end of 2021 so this early turnaround is no surprise. They come in undervalued with an Offensive EPA which has moved up to No. 52 and catching a big number that we have at just a half-point in one set of ratings. Colorado St. is in a play against spot as it is 4-3 with three wins coming in its last four games, the other coming against Northern Colorado of the FCS earlier in the season. The Rams have covered four straight games, one an underdog loss against Oregon St. by eight points where they were getting 10 and the other three as favorites but they were far from dominant in any of those, winning by 25 points while being favored by a combined 18 points. The offense has been decent but nothing exceptional with an EPA of No. 97 as the passing game took a big hit with wide receiver Tory Horton lost for the season. 10* (189) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. BYU is one of the surprise teams in the country as it is off to a 7-0 start following a come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma St. last week as it won on a 35-yard touchdown pass with 35 seconds remaining so that is a celebration that went on for a while and now the Cougars take one of the longer road trips in the conference to Central Florida. The Cougars are 3-0 on the road but all came in their time zone and two of those were fortunate victories at SMU, who made a mid-game quarterback change, and at Baylor where they were outgained. They did have their 6-0 ATS streak snapped last week against the Cowboys but they are still overvalued and in an awful spot as undefeated teams from Week Eight out that are favored by four points or less or in the underdog role are just 42-61 and the reasoning is, these teams are not as good as that record indicates if the line is as short as it is. Central Florida has lost four straight games following a 3-0 start including a 38-35 loss against undefeated Iowa St. last week as the Knights gave up the winning touchdown with 30 seconds left. The luck factor has played a role in the records of these teams as Central Florida is No. 118 in Luck Rating while BYU is No. 1, coming in as the luckiest team in the country. The metrics rate these teams a lot closer with the Cougars coming in No. 20 in Net EPA and the Knight being No. 31 with both playing top 25 schedules. 10* (124) Central Florida Knights

This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. Maryland is coming off a huge win last week as it rallied from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter against USC by scoring 15 unanswered points to improve to 4-3 on the season. The Terrapins had lost two straight games prior to this including a 37-10 loss against Northwestern so they were a sinking ship and the win over the Trojans could have saved their season. That being said, this is the letdown spot as they are back on the road where they are 1-1, losing to Indiana and while the win was a two-touchdown victory over Virginia, they benefitted from a +4 turnover differential so it was a game that could have gone either way. They have a bye on deck so there is no lookahead to Oregon but they are now facing a team off of their own bye. Minnesota picked up a pair of wins against Big 10 newcomers USC and UCLA which came after a tough loss at Michigan by three points as they nearly rallied from a 21-point deficit. The defense that started the season great and then fell into a lull is now back once again and the Gophers come in ranked No. 20 in Defensive EPA as they have held four teams to season low yardages and have another good matchup here. Quarterback Max Brosmer is getting comfortable in this offense and has been very efficient not being asked to do much behind a great defense that can be relied on. The bye came at a good time with no letdown possible. 10* (158) Minnesota Golden Gophers

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS as part of our CFB Afternoon Three-Pack. We are not exactly sure what happened to Texas Tech last week as a three-point game midway through the third quarter turned into a 31-point deficit 11 minutes later. We do know what happened actually as the Red Raiders gave Baylor a short field on two touchdown drives stemming from a turnover on downs and an interception and when all said and done, they had their six-game home winning streak snapped and allowed the Bears to score their most conference points in six years. Now it is time to get off the mat which should happen as they are still very much alive in the Big 12 with a 3-1 record, one of six teams at 3-1 or better. In this matchup, Texas Tech rates better on both offense and defense and has played the slightly tougher schedule yet comes in as a heavy underdog. TCU is coming off a 13-7 win over a banged up Utah team following a horrible loss against Houston, part of a 1-3 run. The Horned Frogs are 4-3 with the other three wins coming against Long Island of the FCS and Kansas and Stanford, both of which sit at 2-5. While they allowed only seven points last week, they are still No. 74 in Defensive EPA, 50 spots worse than the Red Raiders so the results from last week creates a line overreaction. Now all of a sudden, they are favored by 6.5 points against a quality opponent and the power rankings have them favored by under a field goal and that is with home field advantage taken into consideration. 10* (161) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Miami got off to a slow start this season as the offense was unable to do anything against Northwestern, Cincinnati and Notre Dame while also not doing much against Massachusetts and Toledo and while the Redhawks have scored 38 and 30 points over the last two games, we are not completely sold. They have won and covered their last two games and now the markets are overreacting thinking this team is back to where they were last season when they won the MAC but they are not that same team, especially on the defensive side. Miami had one of the best defenses in the country last year when they had nine starters back from an already solid defense but only six starters returned this season and they have had trouble adjusting, falling to No. 54 in Defensive EPA. The offense has been able to score lately as mentioned but the Redhawks are still No. 82 in Offensive EPA as quarterback Brett Gabbert has not played to expectations and has been very inconsistent. Central Michigan comes in with the same record at 3-4 following a pair of losses in their last two games against Ohio and Eastern Michigan by a combined six points. The Chippewas were underdogs by a field goal in those games and now we are seeing a massive line swing against a Miami team that is rated identical to that Bobcats team. We have this number at a touchdown so Miami is trending up but not to where the markets are putting them. 10* (143) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We are to the point of the season where head coaching changes are starting to be made and East Carolina was one of two teams to fire their head coach this week as Mike Houston was let go following a 45-28 loss to Army, its second straight blowout loss. Both of those were on the road and now the Pirates return home under the direction of defensive coordinator Blake Harrell in a great spot to salvage the season and improve to 4-4 and a nice stretch coming up. These changes can light a fire under a team and this is still a solid team that has edges on both sides of the ball and we are getting value with the number with East Carolina being a team that will be avoided because of the coaching change which is typically done by teams completely in the tank. Temple is coming off a 20-10 win over Tulsa which snapped a two-game losing streak to improve the Owls to 2-5. One of those recent losses was at Connecticut which was their only road game over a five-game stretch and in that game, they were getting 17.5 points and are now catching 10 points less. Looking at the power numbers, Connecticut rates only a half point better in one set and three points better in the other set so this is an overadjustment to the line. The Owls are 0-3 on the road this season and going back, they are 1-22 in their last 23 road games while covering just seven of those games. 10* (146) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE 49ERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. We played against Memphis last week and while it won, it failed to cover and the Tigers are overpriced again. The defense got gashed as it showed it is vulnerable with this being the second time in their last four games where they allowed at least 14 points sandwiched around two games where they allowed 10 points total so which defense shows up? Even if it is a middling one, this number is priced too high as their win over North Texas was by eight points and their previous three wins were by 18, 17 and 8 points and those were against teams all rated lower than Charlotte. Overall, the Tigers are No. 75 in Net EPA which is not impressive for a 6-1 team and the 49ers come in at No. 85 in Net EPA so that disparity does not equate to a spread of more than two possessions. Charlotte is coming off a 51-17 blowout loss against Navy but it was a skewed final as the 49ers gave the Midshipmen a short field because of mistakes with nine of their first 10 drives starting in Charlotte territory and that is where Navy took advantage to build a 38-0 lead. The 49ers actually outgained Navy 363-288 but five turnovers did them, which included two interceptions returned for touchdowns in to drop them to 3-4 following a two-game winning streak. They held Navy to a season-low in yards and in comparison, Memphis allowed 566 yards to the Midshipmen. This is the big letdown for Memphis and have a revenge game with UTSA on deck. 10* (177) Charlotte 49ers

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Star Attraction. Oklahoma came up small last week against a vastly improved South Carolina team even though the 35-9 final score was skewed and while the Sooners are trending the wrong way, they are seeing a 19-point line swing as they hit the road in what is the biggest amount of points they have gotten since 1998. Oklahoma actually outgained the Gamecocks 291-254 but was done in by four turnovers, two that were directly returned for touchdowns. The big news out of Norman is that offensive coordinator Seth Litrell was let go after just seven games on the job coaching an offense that has fallen to No. 128 in total yards. In his defense, they have played a schedule ranked No. 11 and many parts of the offense have been hurt yet they are still a better No. 83 in Offensive EPA. The defense is still a force as the Sooners are No. 13 in Defensive EPA despite the points allowed as the unit has been put in some tough spots and the defense is not guilty of all of the points given up. The Rebels rolled in their first four games against some bad teams but the real team has emerged. Mississippi is simply overvalued with this number which has become the case with a lot of SEC home teams this season as favorites are just 2-12 ATS while overall SEC underdogs are 22-9 ATS. We are getting a break with this time as a 12:00 ET home game in the SEC is not nearly as strong as a late afternoon or night start. 10* (169) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. It has been another lost season for USC as it is now 3-4 after its third straight loss and fourth defeat over its last five games. There was early Trojans talk about becoming a playoff contender following a season opening win over LSU which is looking even better but USC has not been able to close. All four of these losses have come in the final minute so if you see that USC is 5-7 plays away from being 7-0, it is totally true. They have a Luck Rating of No. 128, the higher the number, the unluckier they are, and this takes into account losses like this and how they happen. It has been the fault of the defense because of the late opposing scores but this unit is not nearly as bad as it was last season as the Trojans are No. 40 in Defensive EPA and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 6. They have been stronger on offense, just not strong enough at times, as they are No. 14 in Offensive EPA and in their loss last week, they threw for 336 yards and they can pile up those yards again this week as Miller Moss has been a solid quarterback. This is the season for USC. It can be argued that the season is on the line for Rutgers as well as it has lost three straight games following a 4-0 start. The offense managed only seven points in losses against Nebraska and Wisconsin and while the Scarlet Knights scored 32 points against UCLA last week, they allowed 35 points, more than double what the Bruins had scored in any of their first six games. Rutgers is reeling in a horrible spot as they have to travel out west. 10* (118) USC Trojans

This is a play on the SYRACUSE ORANGE for our ACC Game of the Month. This line has moved up to 6 and it is a move based on the fact that Pittsburgh enters the game as one of only nine remaining undefeated teams in the country and this is a number that should be no more than three points as both of our sets of power ratings indicates. These teams are more equal that what the number shows as the Panthers come in ranked No. 47 in Net EPA while Syracuse is No. 49 while the teams have played similar strength of schedules. Pittsburgh has been one of the luckiest teams in the country as it has a Luck Rating rank of No. 3 with two wins coming after having double-digit fourth quarter deficits while defeating California by two points in their last game aided by a two-points conversion miss and a 40-yard missed field goal inside two minutes by the Golden Bears. This is the best Panthers start since 1982 and we certainly are not sold. Syracuse is coming off a win at NC State to make it three straight wins since its only loss which came against Stanford at home on a field goal as time expired. The last two wins came on the road and while this is the third straight road game, the Orange are coming off a bye so the travel aspect is not an issue. Syracuse comes in ranked No. 18 in Offensive EPA thanks to a passing game that is No. 14 in EPA and now faces a defense awful against the pass as the Panthers are No. 86 so quarterback Kyle McCord is in line for his seventh straight 300-yard passing game to start the season. 10* (111) Syracuse Orange

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Tuesday Night Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is coming off a loss against New Mexico St. in overtime which gave the Aggies their second win of the season, snapping a five-game losing streak. The defeat sent the Bulldogs to 2-4 on the season with the last three losses coming by a combined 13 points so they have been right there to have a reversal record with two of those three losses coming on the road. They are back home where they are 2-1 which includes a win over Middle Tennessee St. in their last game here by 27 points at a very similar number and getting this one under a touchdown is a bargain, especially with playing a team still celebrating their first win. The Miners took out Florida International at a seven-point home underdog 30-21. They held the Panthers to only 14 first downs on fewer than 300 total years but UTEP is still No. 99 in Defense EPA and now face an offense that is trending the right way. Quarterback Evan Bullock has thrown for nearly 800 yards in his last four games since taking over this offense in that first game while tossing eight touchdowns with no interceptions. He has that great matchup to keep rolling and on the other side, UTEP quarterback Cade McConnell is still uncertain after getting injured two weeks ago and missing the FIU game which likely means Skyler Locklear will be making his third straight start. 10* (104) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our AAC Game of the Year. North Texas has won three straight games including their last two in the AAC to open 2-0 in the conference and it is now 5-1 overall. The lone loss came at Texas Tech which was the one game the Mean Green offense was slowed down as they are No. 5 in the country in total offense and No. 14 in scoring offense even though they are just No. 46 in Offensive EPA. Quarterback Chandler Morris has upped his game with a 11:1 TD:INT ratio in his last three games after a 9:6 ratio in his first three games. Their defense is the concern as they come in ranked No. 96 in Defensive EPA but they have the ability to score points and outscore opponents. This is a big advantage in the betting markets when getting double digits which is the case here. Memphis came into the season as the favorites to win the AAC and it is also off to a 5-1 start but the one loss was a conference defeat against Navy. The offense has been a bit of a disappointment as the Tigers are No. 68 in Offensive EPA while ranking right around No. 50 in total offense and scoring offense. The surprise has been the defense which is No. 21 overall and No. 13 in points allowed but those are skewed when looking at the expected points added as the Defensive EPA drops all the down to No. 86. While they will get their yards and points on offense, the defense is vulnerable in this matchup as they were exposed by Navy and will be exposed again here. 10* (359) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CFB TV Star Attraction. This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CFB TV Star Attraction. Typically, in a matchup such as this we look toward the running games and line of scrimmage but both Georgia and Texas are ranked in the top 20 in both Offensive and Defensive Rushing EPA with the Longhorns having a slight edge but it is the other side where Texas can flourish. One big factor heading into this game is the big advantage for the Texas passing game as the Bulldogs have been barely above average in Defensive Passing EPA as they are No. 59 after allowing Mississippi St. quarterback Michael Van Buren to throw for 306 yards with three touchdowns. This is not ideal facing a real quarterback with a capable backup if need be as between Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, the Longhorns are ranked No. 6 in Offensive Passing EPA. On the other side, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has had a great season but he has not been at the same level as last season with his efficiency being down as he has already tossed five interceptions after throwing only six all of last season and his completion percentage is down five percent. This is not a huge deal against an average defense but this is not an average defense he is facing and he has struggled against pressure and now going against the No. 4 ranked Pressure Rate Defense in the country. Put this game in Athens and it might be a different story but in Austin, Texas has a huge edge let alone in their first SEC night game. The Longhorns were clearly not looking ahead to this game as they rolled over Oklahoma and while that could be a lookahead normally, not in this spot. 10* (402) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Oklahoma is coming off a bad loss against Texas which was not a disheartening close defeat and we expect a rebound here in a great spot heading home. The Sooners are clearly not on the same level as the Longhorns this season as they are now 4-2, the first loss coming against Tennessee at home where they closed as a 5.5-point underdog and now there is a less than a 10-point swing from then to this next home game and Tennessee and South Carolina are not within 10 points of each other, especially in this spot. Coming off big games can hurt a team emotionally but not Oklahoma as it has won 23 of it last 25 games coming off the Texas game including 12-1 at home and over the last nine games coming off a Texas loss, the Sooners have won their last nine games. This line is too low in this one. South Carolina is coming off a tough loss at Alabama in a game it had its chances but had a couple bad calls go against them. That is a defeat which is tough to recover from and it was now the Gamecocks third loss in their last four games, the lone win coming against 1-6 Akron. They did play LSU tough in a three-point loss and beat what was then a good Kentucky team but this is the worst scenario against a team ready to pour it on. This is the first back-to-back road game situation for South Carolina this season as it was coming off three straight home games prior to the Alabama game and while we saw an awful effort against Mississippi in a lookahead spot with the Tide on deck, the Gamecocks are in a sandwich letdown spot now. 10* (366) Oklahoma Sooners

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for out CFB Supreme Annihilator. UCLA is off to one of its worst starts in program history with a lot of that having to do with playing the No. 1 ranked schedule in the country. It was going to be an expected down year for the Bruins anyway but they are now 1-5 and easily could be 0-6 if not for a 16-13 comeback win in their opener against Hawaii. While the teams on their schedule have been tough, the travel aspect of it has been brutal as they have had to go to Hawaii, LSU and Penn St. and now have to head back east again following a home loss against Minnesota. The 22,000+ miles they will log this season is the most of any team in the country and that is already showing its effects and UCLA falls into another tough spot based on opponent. Rutgers opened the season 4-0 with a pair of solid wins over Virginia Tech and Washington but it has dropped its last two games, a tough 14-7 loss at Nebraska and then a 42-7 blowout loss at home against Wisconsin last week. The offense had been rolling in the first four games yet has gotten shut down the last two weeks and the Scarlet Knights still come in No. 43 in Offensive EPA. They had a good matchup last week against the Badgers and got nothing going in the passing game but have another solid matchup here against another bad defense. Their defense has been strong with last week notwithstanding as they are No. 40 in Defensive EPA and face an offense that has yet to score more than 17 points. 10* (372) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Late Powerhouse. We faded BYU on Saturday and despite the 41-19 win, the Cougars outgained the Wildcats by only 398-389 yards as they benefitted from four Arizona turnovers including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. This has been a recurring thing all season as they have now forced 14 turnovers which has led to either scores or short fields and that helped bolster their scoring. BYU is ranked No. 30 in scoring offense but just No. 72 in total offense which proves that and prior to the Arizona game where they won the yardage battle by only nine yards, they were outgained in their two previous games against Kansas St. and Baylor and this is not sustainable to winning. The Cougars are now 6-0 straight up and ATS and this continues to theory to fade because of overpriced lines. Oklahoma St. was one of the favorites to contend in the Big 12 Conference but have fallen to 0-3 after their third straight loss. The Cowboys had a tough three-point loss to start this skid and the last two losses have been by 22 and 24 points so this trend cannot continue and this is the spot to end that with plenty of points to take on top of it. They have nine giveaways with eight of those being interceptions from quarterback Alan Bowman and this needs to be cleaned up. Even more troublesome is preseason Heisman Trophy candidate running back Ollie Gordon has rushed for more than 50 yards only once in his last five games. It will not be easy against this defense which is very good but not elite against the run. The streaks come to an end here. 10* (321) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS for our CFB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. Marshall is coming off a brutal loss, blowing a 23-3 lead, allowing 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter to lose by a point against Georgia Southern. How will they respond is the question as they can pick themselves or keep feeling those effects and it is most likely the latter as the Thundering Herd have not been impressive. Before that beat a surprisingly bad Appalachian St. team and Western Michigan, which recently struggled with Ball St. and Akron. They were favored by 3 and 3.5 in those games and are now laying over a touchdown which is too big of an adjustment. They fall into a great play against spot as they are 5-0-1 ATS and those are streaks I love going against because the number is skewed because of that. Georgia St. has lost two straight games which is also helping with the value. The Panthers are now 2-3 with one win coming against Chattanooga which is no big deal but the other win came against Vanderbilt which is now looking like a really good win. The metrics show they are not far off in this matchup as they are just 15 spots behind Marshall in Offensive EPA and only nine spots back in Defensive EPA. Quarterback Christian Veilleux leads a strong passing game that is No. 35 in the country and can always keep the backdoor wide open if it comes down to that. The only concern is they have played four straight home games but the overreaction value in the line makes them a take getting over a touchdown with the public going to be heavily on the undefeated ATS team. 10* (315) Georgia St. Panthers

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. The winner of this game moves into a tie with Liberty for first place in C-USA with a 3-0 record and with the short price, the team that wins the line of scrimmage wins the game and that is Sam Houston St. which also has other intangible advantages to cover the small margin. The Bearkats opened their FBS tenure last season 0-8 but they have gone 8-2 since then with the lone loss coming against UCF this season and at Western Kentucky last season which brings in the revenge angle. Sam Houston St. is No. 11 in the country in rushing offense and are facing another defense that cannot stop the run and it should once again have a big game on the ground. The Bearkats have had an extra week to prepare for this game and that is an even bigger edge playing at home with no travel disruptions. Western Kentucky opened the season with a blowout loss against Alabama and while it has gone 4-1 since then, those wins have to be examined. The first one came against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS and two others came against UTEP and Middle Tennessee St. which are a combined 1-11. While the Toledo win might look good, the Rockets are not that good having just lost to Buffalo. The Hilltoppers lost quarterback T.J. Finley in the Middle Tennessee St. games and while Caden Veltkamp has put up big yardage numbers, he is not taking care of the ball with six touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games. Additionally, they cannot run the ball as they are No. 103 in the country in rushing offense. 10* (308) Sam Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our CFB Tuesday Night Enforcer. Conference USA has the distinction of being the worst conference at the FBS level, just below the MAC with a 56.6 win percentage no thanks to four teams sitting the bottom with a combined record of 2-21, the only two wins coming against teams from the FCS. This includes a 4-19 record against the number and two of these teams square off on Tuesday in the ugliest game of the entire Week Eight schedule and we are playing the number. This is the first season in FBS for Kennesaw St. and to no surprise, the Owls are off to a 0-5 start. This is one of the two remaining games they will have a chance to win and they are catching double digits despite our two sets of power ratings have this line at 5.0 and 5.4 so there is plenty of value. Neither side has played well and Kennesaw St. has a Net EPA ranking of No. 129 but there is not a big disparity in this matchup. Middle Tennessee St. is 1-5 as it owns one of those two FCS victories, a narrow seven-point victory over Tennessee Tech as a 24.5-point favorite to open the season. The Blue Raiders were picked to finish just above the Owls in C-USA and they are living up to those expectations although to their credit, they have faced Mississippi, Duke and Memphis. Still, they are ranked No. 127 in Net EPA and these ratings do take schedules into consideration and they have lost their two conference games by 27 and 28 points. There will be no home field edge on a Tuesday night and they are at a rest disadvantage as Kennesaw St. has been off since October 4 while the Blue Raiders have a quick turnaround having played this past Thursday. 10* (303) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Primetime Dominator. Iowa St. is off to a 5-0 start following a pair of wins over Houston and Baylor to open Big 12 Conference action with a very favorable schedule the rest of the way to have the inside track for its first championship game since 2020. The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the country as they are ranked No. 9 in defensive EPA with five SEC teams ranked ahead of them. They have yet to allow more than 21 points which has enabled the offense to move in a non-pressured way and is an underrated unit. Iowa St. is No. 20 in Offensive EPA behind quarterback Rocco Becht, the second highest rated quarterback in the conference. They come in as the short favorite where they are 3-0 ATS the last three seasons in this conference role. West Virginia has won two straight games following its monumental collapse against rival Pittsburgh where it blew a 10-point lead with just over three minutes remaining. The Mountaineers do have the significant home field situation with this being a nationally televised night game they have not had success in these spots, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as conference underdogs of a touchdown or less. West Virginia has outgained its last four opponents but all well down in the metrics sitting at No. 35 in Offensive EPA and No. 66 in Defensive EPA. 10* (123) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. UL-Monroe came into the season with a betting win total of 2.5 following a 2-10 season last year and returning just seven starters overall. The Warhawks win over James Madison last week moved them to 4-1 and we can call this a flipped record as they have been outgained in three straight games. They won the yardage battle against Jackson St. of the FCS by just 50 yards and against UAB by only 37 yards and despite Texas on the schedule, they have played a schedule ranked No. 104. Now they come in as a favorite against a team from the FBS by the most points they have put down since 2019 as this could be the biggest overreaction number of the week after getting outgained by close to 150 yards last week. Southern Mississippi has lost three straight games by double digits so this is not a quality team by any stretch but this is a play on the number and the game situation where we catch a big underdog with a low total, the second lowest on the entire board behind UCLA/Minnesota. The Golden Eagles do have one of the worst defenses in the country but face an offense that cannot take advantage, especially one that has averaged fewer than 100 ypg rushing the last three games and likely still celebrating the upset from last week. 10* (165) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. BYU is one of five teams that has covered every game this season and by an average of 16.4 ppg which is the biggest margin of those five teams. The Cougars are a team right now that is totally overvalued as they have been one of the luckiest teams especially over the last two games. While the offense has scored 38 and 34 points, they have generated just over 300 ypg and that will not do against the second best defense it has seen this season. The first was against Kansas St. where they had only 241 total yards but was picked by the defense and special teams and that defense is in for test against the best offense it has faced. The Cougars are off a bye week and in this case, it seems like a detrimental time for their first bye to come into play. Arizona is coming off a tough loss against Texas Tech as it outgained the Red Raiders 422-331 but had three costly turnovers and were held to six field goal attempts which included one miss. It was a huge disappointment on third down yet the Wildcats remain No. 18 in Offensive EPA so the offensive scoring numbers over the last four games are completely skewed as the raw numbers show them No. 54 in total offense but just No. 85 in scoring offense. 10* (177) Arizona Wildcats

This is a play on the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Louisville was unable to bounce back from its loss against Notre Dame as it lost to SMU to fall to 1-1 in the ACC. Despite the two losses by a touchdown, the Cardinals come in as touchdown favorites for a second straight week and there is actually value in this number as they are a top 20 team in Net EPA and both sets of power ratings have them as double-digit favorites. Louisville is No. 15 in Offensive EPA, led by quarterback Tyler Shough who is a transfer from Texas Tech but was plagued by injuries in his time there and has tossed 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The last two games have come against defenses ranked in the top 20 in EPA and they take a big step down here. Virginia is off to a surprising 4-1 start and those four victories have surpassed their win total from each of the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 2-0 in the ACC after going 3-12 the last two years but they have been very fortunate as they rallied from 14-point deficits in both games. Virginia defeated Boston College 24-14 last week thanks to a +3 turnover margin which included a 40-yard touchdown on a fumble return in the fourth quarter to ice the game. The Cavaliers have played a much softer schedule as this is the first game they are underdogs and it is for a very good reason. 10* (139) Louisville Cardinals

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS as part of our CFB Afternoon Triple Play. Cincinnati is coming off its first bye week following a three-point loss at Texas Tech despite outgaining the Red Raiders and generating 55 yards of total offense. The Bearcats dropped to 3-2 with the two losses coming by four points combined and they are in a great spot this week playing with double revenge off two losses by a combined six points. Cincinnati has already matched its win total from last season with those three victories in 2023 being the fewest since a 3-8 season in 1999. Central Florida is coming off a loss against Florida which was its second straight double-digit loss and this will now be its second straight game facing a team coming in with extended rest. The Knights locker rook is the real concern here as they already have six players that decided to redshirt prior to the Florida game and all have stated they will be entering the transfer portal which is not a good indicator of what is going on internally. Central Florida easily could be rising a three-game losing streak as it rallied from a double-digit deficit against TCU and scored the game-winning touchdown with just 36 seconds left in the one point victory against the Horned Frogs. This is typically one of the better home field edges in college football but we do not like where the Knights are shifting this early in the season. 10* (151) Cincinnati Bearcats