6* MLB Line Mistake on Royals -109

The Key: Kansas City should be a larger favorite given the edge it has on the mound with Vargas, who has a 1.52 ERA on the road this season and has won his last two starts in Tampa Bay while giving up no earned runs in 13 innings.  This is Hellickson's first start back, and I'm expecting plenty of rust after he went 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in six rehab starts.  He has a 6.18 lifetime ERA versus the Royals with the Rays going 0-3 in his last three starts against them.  The Rays are 1-7 in Hellickson's last eight starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Royals are 12-4 in their last 16 road games, 28-11 in their last 39 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 against Tampa Bay.  Take Kansas City.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -138

The Key: The Braves are 5-0 in their last five Game 2's of a series while the Mets are 6-22 in their last 28 Game 2's, and I expect these trends to continue.  Atlanta's Teheran has a 2.29 ERA on the season, a 1.79 ERA in division play and a 1.44 ERA in four starts versus the Mets.  The Braves are 8-1 in his last nine road starts versus teams with a losing record.  New York's deGrom has struggled under the lights.  The Mets are 0-7 in his night starts, during which he's posted a 4.99 ERA.  They are also 0-4 in his home starts.  New York is a lousy 28-62 in its last 90 games as a home underdog.  Take the Braves.

6* American League Annihilator on Yankees -142

The Key: The Yankees have the edge on the mound with Tanaka, who has a 2.27 ERA on the season.  They are 12-3 in his last 15 starts and 7-1 on the season in his road starts.  Tanaka is facing Cleveland for the first time and hasn't lost to an opponent he faces for the first time.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine road games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland's Bauer has a 4.42 ERA on the season.  The Indians are 1-6 in their last seven home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 5-0 in their last five, 12-2 in their last 14 and 26-8 in their last 34 versus Cleveland.  Take New York.

6* AL Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+123)

The Key: Toronto is struggling at the plate.  It hit .180 and went 0 for 20 with runners in scoring position while being outscored 14-4 in a four-game series sweep in Oakland.  The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last six road games and have lost these by an average of 3.5 runs.  Their struggles figure to continue as they get set to face Weaver without Encarnacion, who is second in the majors with 26 homers and 70 RBIs.  The Angels are 10-0 in their last 10 home games and have won these by 3.1 runs on average.  Weaver has a 2.75 ERA at home and is 9-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 11 starts versus Toronto.  He's 4-0 in his last four home starts versus the Jays with a 1.99 ERA.  LA won those four by 4.3 runs on average.  Bautista is just 1 of 12 against Weaver.  The Halos are 22-5 as a favorite of -150 or higher this season, winning these contests by an average score of 6.0 to 3.4.  Take LA.

7* Run Line Rout of the Month on Nationals -1.5 (+126)

The Key: Strasburg is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last nine home starts while Tillman has an ERA of 5.53 in 10 road starts and an 11.90 ERA in three interleague starts.  Tillman is averaging only 5.5 innings per start on the road and 3.8 innings in interleague play.  In other words, an early departure figures to put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has been taxed the last two days.  Showalter said that certain relievers won't take the mound after his pen worked 12 1-3 innings over the last two days.  You want to fade underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts if the bullpen has worked nine innings or more in the last two games.  Doing so has produced a 66-13 mark since 1997, a 22-4 mark the last five seasons, a 14-1 mark the last three seasons and a 2-0 mark this season.  Teams fitting into this system have lost by 2.3 runs on average.  Take Washington on the run line.

6* MLB Early Annihilator on Reds -117

The Key: The Reds are showing value at this price at home where they are 30-12 in their last 42 against the Brewers.  Latos has allowed just two runs in his last 14 innings of work spanning two starts, and he typically performs well when given extra rest.  In fact, the Reds are 18-4 in his last 22 starts on five days' rest.  They are 24-7 in his last 31 home starts.  Gallardo was hit hard in a loss in Cincinnati earlier this season, and the Brewers are 3-9 in his last 12 road starts versus the Reds.  Take Cincy.

7* MLB Total of the Month on Rays/Tigers Under 8

The Key: I expect a pitcher's duel between Sanchez and Archer to finish under the number.  Sanchez has an ERA of 2.34 in his last 10 starts while holding opponents to a .195 average.  Tampa Bay's Archer has posted a 1.65 ERA over his last nine starts.  The "under" is 10-1 in Archer's last 11 starts as an underdog,  5-0 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 5-0 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last four road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The "under" is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings between these clubs and 5-1 in the last six games umpire Mark Carlson has been behind home plate.  Take the under.

7* Pre All-Star Break Game of the Year on Cardinals -148

The Key: The Marlins have been a poor investment on the road where they are 40-86 in their last 126 road games.  They've also been a poor investment against the Cardinals, going 17-35 in the last 52 meetings, including 0-5 in the last five in St. Louis.  It is also worth noting that Miami is 0-7 in its last seven games versus a winning team and 0-5 in its last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Scheduled starter Eovaldi has been struggling, giving up five earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.  The Marlins are 0-6 in Eovaldi's last six starts versus National League Central foes and 0-4 in his last four starts versus a club that scored five runs or more last game.  The Cardinals are a lethal 42-13 in their last 55 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Lynn will be focused following a rough outing in L.A.  He's been strong at home (3.22 ERA) and has given up two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts prior to his last.  The Cardinals are 9-3 in Lynn's last 12 starts versus National League East opponents and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Take St. Louis.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Rangers -111

The Key: The Rangers are 5-2 in their last seven games after losing the first three games of a series, 7-1 in their last eight Game 4's of a series and 21-8 in their last 29 Thursday games.  Texas has the edge on the mound with Darvish, who has a 2.42 ERA on the season.  The Rangers are 14-3 in his last 17 starts as a favorite, 6-1 in his last seven starts as a road favorite and 9-1 in his last 10 starts on regular rest (4 days).  The Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 Game 4's of a series and 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home underdog.  Chen has a 4.19 ERA on the season and a 6.32 ERA over his last three starts.  The Rangers are batting .283 and averaging 5.4 runs per game off lefty starters this season. You want to fade underdogs of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher that has a win percentage of 70% of better if they are matched up against an AL opponent starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 52-10 mark the last five seasons.  This system is 3-0 this season.  Take Texas.

6* MLB Run Line Rout on Rockies +1.5

The Key: I'll take the Rockies on the run line at a reasonable price for insurance in a game they have an excellent opportunity to win outright.  The Rockies, who are 20-8 in their last 28 home games following a road trip of seven or more days, will be happy to be home and happy to see Zack Greinke.  LA's right-handed ace hasn't had the same stuff on the road.  The Dodgers are 0-4 in his last four road starts while he's posted an ERA of 4.18.  He's especially struggled in Colorado where he has a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts.  The Dodgers are 5-12 in Greinke's last 17 starts as a road favorite of -125 to -150.  Franklin Morales has been tough on the division.  The Rockies are 4-0 in his four division starts this season while he's posted a 3.37 ERA.  The Rockies are batting .325 at home and averaging 6.4 runs per game.  The Dodgers are batting just .230 versus southpaw starters.  Take Colorado.

6* Wednesday Night Bailout on Cardinals -135

The Key: The Cardinals get the call behind Wainwright, who has a 1.46 road ERA and a 0.78 ERA over his last three starts.  He also has a sweet 0.903 WHIP on the season.  The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.150.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  They are 45-18 in his last 63 starts as a favorite, 60-26 in his last 86 starts following a team loss, 23-5 in his last 28 starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or less and 14-2 in his last 16 starts when working on five or six days' rest. Vogelsong hasn't had his best stuff lately, giving up 14 runs over his last four starts spanning 22 innings.  He also has a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts versus St. Louis while Wainwright has a 3.17 ERA in 10 starts versus San Francisco.  The Giants are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog, 0-4 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their last four after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -126

The Key: I'll back the Reds in this bounce-back spot behind ace Johnny Cueto.  First off, the Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 games after losing the first two games of a series, 6-1 in their last seven Game 3's of a series and 21-6 in their last 27 Wednesday games.  Cueto has a 1.88 ERA on the season and a microscopic 0.75 ERA in day starts.  The Reds are 4-0 in Cueto's last four starts, 39-14 in his last 53 starts as a favorite, 21-5 in his last 26 starts in the third game of a series, 17-5 in his last 22 Wednesday starts and 11-2 in his last 13 starts versus the NL West.  The Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series and 2-7 in their last nine Wednesday games.  Tyson Ross hasn't been as sharp lately (4.12 ERA L3 starts), and the Padres are 0-5 in his last five starts.  They are also 0-5 in his last five starts following a "quality start" in his last appearance, 0-4 in his last four home starts and 0-4 in his last four Wednesday starts.  Take Cincinnati.

6* AL East *CA$H COW* on Rays -118

The Key: The Yankees have lost seven of nine while the Rays have won five of six.  Look for the Rays to keep right on rolling behind ace David Price.  Tampa Bay is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven at Yankee Stadium.  They are also 4-0 in Price's last four road starts in the series, during which he's posted a 2.42 ERA.  He has a 2.31 ERA over his last six starts while striking out 60 and walking only six.  Price leads the majors with a 10.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Rays are 24-8 in Price's last 32 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Yankees are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a home underdog and 3-8 in Kuroda's last 11 starts as an underdog.  Kuroda has a 4.69 ERA at home and a 6.94 ERA all-time versus the Rays.  The Yankees are 0-3 in his last three starts against them.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -128

The Key: The Pirates have won seven of nine, and I expect them to keep right on rolling behind a gem from Locke.  They are 3-0 in his last three starts, during which he's posted a 2.95 ERA.  He should have success against an Arizona club that is batting .221 over its last seven games and is a major league-worst 6-12 against left-handed starters.  Locke has a fantastic 0.980 WHIP on the season, and this figure is significant because the Diamondbacks are 5-21 in their last 26 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Arizona's Miley is 0-3 with a 4.74 ERA over his last eight starts, and the D-backs are 0-5 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -135

The Key: Boston has been an awesome interleague investment over the years.  In fact, the Red Sox are 121-54 in their last 175 interleague games, 70-27 in their last 97 interleague home games and 96-37 in their last 133 interleague games as a favorite.  They enter this contest on a perfect 6-0 interleague run. The Cubs are 2-7 in their last nine interleague contests, 41-87 in their last 128 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 37-76 in their last 113 games versus a right-handed starter.  Chicago had yesterday off, but it is 0-12 the last two seasons in road games following a day off and has lost by an average score of 6.3 to 3.4 in this spot.  It is also worth noting that Boston is 10-0 the last two seasons in home games after a 20-game span with an on-base percentage of .310 or lower, and it has won by an average score of 5.8 to 2.4 in this spot.  Peavy has been pretty darn good at Fenway where he has held opponents to three earned runs or less in six of eight starts this season.  He's also been pretty darn good versus the Cubs.  He has a 2.76 ERA in 14 starts against them, and his clubs are 5-1 all-time in his home starts against them.  Arrieta is having a nice season for the Cubs, but Boston has had his number.  He's 0-3 with a 5.67 ERA in five starts versus the Red Sox.  A.J. Pierzynski is 4 for 5 with two homers against him while Pedroia (4 for 13), Mike Napoli (2 for 6), Daniel Nava (3 for 6) and David Ross (2 for 2) have all hit him fairly well and homered off him.  Take Boston.

6* MLB Annihilator on Giants -108

The Key: We lost with the Giants in extra innings last night, but I'm not hesitating to come right back with them at what I feel is a very nice price.  San Francisco has been struggling and now leads the Dodgers by only one game in the NL West so motivation won't be an issue.  I expect it to bear down right here and avoid being swept.  The Giants are 23-9 in their last 32 Game 4's of a series, 10-2 in Sunday games this season and 6-0 in their last six games following losses in the first three games of a series.  San Francisco's offense has struggled without some key bats in the lineup, but first baseman Brandon Belt is expected to return today.  His presence alone should provide a spark.  Cincinnati scheduled starter Homer Bailey hasn't shown he can be trusted on the road where he has a 5.47 ERA.  The Reds are 2-12 the last two seasons in his road starts when the money line is +125 to -125.  Bailey has given up 10 runs in 11 1-3 innings in his last two starts at AT&T Park.  San Francisco scheduled starter Tim Hudson has shown he can be trusted at home where he has a 2.59 ERA on the season and is 16-1 on the money line the last two seasons.  He has a 3.20 ERA in eight career starts versus the Reds with his clubs going 5-1 in his home starts against them.  Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are a combined 9 for 42 against Hudson.  Take the Giants.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Padres +100

The Key: San Diego is being undervalued at home with Stults on the mound and an Arizona club that is 5-14 in its last 19 games versus left-handed starters.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four Game 2's of a series and 0-6 in their last six games following a win.  Stults has a 3.29 ERA in 10 starts versus Arizona while Collmenter has a 4.96 ERA in three starts versus the Padres.  The Padres are 17-8 in Stults' last 25 home starts and 9-3 in his last 12 home starts versus a team with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 5-11 in Collmenter's last 16 road starts and 2-6 in his last eight road starts versus a team with a losing record.  The Padres have won Stults' last two starts versus Arizona and three of his last four.  Take San Diego.

6* NL Annihilator on Giants -114

The Key: I'm not sold on Simon, who was 3-9 with a 5.15 ERA in 19 starts overs six seasons prior to 2014.  Cain is far more proven, and I like him to come through in this spot.  The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series and 8-3 in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  In NL matchups, you want to fade road underdogs of +100 to +150 that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.150 or better on the season if they are batting .255 or worse as a team and facing a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Doing so has produced a 53-16 mark since 1997.  Take San Francisco.

6* NL *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -141

The Key: Greinke's clubs have been phenomenal investments at home.  In fact, they are 41-14 all-time in his starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175.  The Dodgers are 18-4 in his last 22 home starts, including 5-0 in his last five home starts versus teams that have a winning record.  LA is also 16-3 in his last 19 starts following a loss in its previous game, and 4-0 in its last four games following a defeat.  You want to fade underdog of +125 to +175 that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or better over his last three starts and are batting .255 or worse on the season when they are up against an NL starting pitcher who has an ERA of 3.00 or lower.  Doing so has produced a 47-9 mark the last five seasons.  Take the Dodgers.

7* AL East Game of the Month on Orioles -130

The Key: Tampa Bay has struggled on the road where it is batting .228 and averaging 3.0 runs per game.  It has also struggled against left-handed starters, batting .239 and averaging 3.3 runs per game against them.  Look for these struggles to continue in Baltimore while facing Chen.  The Orioles are 8-1 this season in his starts versus AL clubs that average 4.2 runs per game or less, and they have won these games by an average score of 6.2 to 3.0.  The Rays are 3-12 in their last 15 road games and 0-5 in their last five road games versus a left-handed starter.  Bedard has been a dead fade as his clubs are 11-27 in his last 38 starts.  Bedard has a 6.30 ERA in seven starts versus the Orioles while Chen has a 2.98 ERA in 10 starts versus Tampa Bay.  The Orioles are 5-0 in their last five Game 3's of a series.  The Rays are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.  Take Baltimore.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Mariners +104

The Key: Seattle is being undervalued at home against a Cleveland club that has lost four of five and is 10 games under .500 on the season.  I'm not sold on scheduled starter Trevor Bauer, who is 0-4 with a 7.53 ERA in seven career road starts.  The Indians are 0-3 in his road starts this season and 12-29 in their last 41 road games versus winning clubs.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last five versus American League Central opponents.  Scheduled starter Chris Young has been outstanding, especially at home where he has a 2.23 ERA.  The Mariners are 4-0 in Young's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last sic starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.  The Indians are 1-5 in the last six meetings in Seattle.  Let's capitalize on this line mistake.

7* AL Total of the Year on Angels/Royals Under 8.5

The Key: The Angels have been rolling but expect their bats to slow down on the road as they face former teammate Jason Vargas.  He has been dialed in with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts.  Having spent last season with the Angels, Vargas knows them well.  That was apparent when he held them to one run on three hits in 6 1-3 innings May 25.  He has an ERA of 2.44 in 13 career starts against them.  LA's Matt shoemaker is also in good form with a 2.61 ERA over his last three starts.  He gave up just two earned runs to the Royals May 24.  Kansas City has been struggling at the plate, averaging just 2.4 runs over its last seven games.  You want to play the "under" on home teams when the total is 8.0 to 8.5 in AL action if they have an on-base percentage of .320 or lower, are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower and facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 61-29 mark the last 5 seasons, and we've seen just 7.4 runs scored on average in these games.  Vargas is 10-1 "under" the last three seasons in home games versus clubs with a win percentage of 54-62%.  The "under" is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Under.

6* National League Annihilator on Nationals -131

The Key: The Nationals are an impressive 54-26 in their last 80 games as a favorite.  They are also 36-15 in their last 51 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  They are showing value at this price with Fister on the hill.  He's 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine starts this season.  The Nats are 7-1 in his last eight starts, 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last four starts versus losing clubs.  The Cubs aren't at all familiar with his stuff as he's never faced them.  It also bodes well for us that Chicago is batting just .223 versus right-handed starters this season and is 35-75 in its last 110 games versus righty starters.  The Cubs' Wood is 7-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 15 starts, and he was hit hard in a home game they lost to Washington last season. The Nationals have crushed southpaw starters this season, hitting .280 against them.  The Cubs are 8-26 in Wood's last 34 starts versus teams with a winning record and 6-17 in his last 23 starts as a home underdog.  The Nationals are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Take Washington.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Mariners -133

The Key: The Red Sox have struggled on the road where they are 5-16 in their last 21.  They are even 1-10 in their last 11 road games versus teams that have a losing home record, and they are 1-6 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five overall, 5-0 in their last five home games, 11-4 in their last 15 Game 3's of a series and 5-0 in Iwakuma's last five starts in the third game of a series.  Iwakuma gives Seattle the edge.  He has a 3.04 ERA on the season and a 2.64 ERA at home.  I expect to see some rust on Buchholz, who hasn't pitched in the bigs since May 26.  He has a 7.02 ERA on the season and an 8.56 ERA over his last three starts.  Take Seattle.

6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Royals -125

The Key: The Dodgers have been a poor investment in interleague road games, going 26-55 in their last 81.  They are 15-37 in their last 52 interleague road games versus teams with a winning record.  The Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games overall and 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games versus teams with a winning record.  Kansas City has been an excellent investment in this price range, going 39-16 in its last 55 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  KC has also been an excellent investment with Shields on the mound.  The Royals are 29-10 in his last 39 starts, 22-6 in his last 28 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last five starts in the third game of a series.  The Dodgers are 2-5 in Haren's last seven starts and 1-4 in his last five road starts.  Kansas City is a lot more familiar with Haren's stuff having faced him in each of the past five seasons.  Take the Royals.

6* National League Annihilator on Reds -126

The Key: The Reds have dominated the Cubs in recent years, and I expect it to continue here.  The Reds are 51-21 in the last 72 meetings, including 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Chicago.  Cincinnati gave up seven runs in yesterday's loss, but it is 71-27 in its last 98 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.  It is also 29-11 the last three seasons when seeking revenge for an upset loss on the road.  The Reds are 33-16 in Latos' last 49 starts as a favorite and 21-10 in his last 31 starts versus division opponents.  The right-hander is 4-0 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.98 in his last six starts against the Cubs.  The Cubs are 35-74 in their last 109 games versus right-handed starters, 17-42 in their last 59 games following a win and 11-28 in their last 39 Game 3's of a series.  They are 1-10 in Jackson's last 11 starts on regular rest (4 days) of rest and 2-12 in his last 14 starts in the third game of a series.  Take Cincinnati.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Giants -148

The Key: San Francisco has the clear advantage at home with Timmy Hudson on the hill.  Consider this: the veteran right-hander is a perfect 16-0 on the money line in home games the last two seasons with his clubs winning these contests by 3.1 runs on average.  Hudson has also had plenty of success versus San Diego in his career, going 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 14 starts.  The Padres took Game 1 but are 3-11 in their last 14 games following a win and 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  Rookie Jessie Hahn has been strong in his last two starts but takes a step up in class here.  Take San Francisco.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Rockies -104

The Key: The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are in excellent position to end the skid tonight with De La Rosa on the mound.  The Rockies have been a tremendous investment at home in his starts, going 40-11 in his last 51.  They are 18-2 the last two seasons when he gets the start following a loss in their previous game.  Colorado is 9-0 the last two seasons in his home starts against good teams with a win percentage of 54-62%.  It is also 5-0 in his last five starts in the second game of a series.  The Rockies are 4-1 in De La Rosa's last five starts versus the Cardinals, including 2-0 during this span at home.  The Cardinals have lost four of Miller's last six starts, and he's never started at flighty Coors Field.  I believe he's in for a rude awakening against a club that is batting .324 and averaging 6.3 runs per game at home.  The Rockies have been struggling and are being undervalued with De La Rosa on the bump at home as a result.  We'll take advantage of the line mistake.  Take Colorado.

6* Interleague Run Line Rout on Royals +1.5 (-140)

The Key: I missed a big play with the Royals yesterday as they suffered yet another one-run loss, but I'm not hesitating to come back with them catching runs as they've won or lost by a single run in 13 of their last 14 games.  The Dodgers are a poor 25-54 in their last 79 interleague road games, and they are 16-40 in their last 56 interleague road games versus teams with a winning record.  Greinke is one of the best in the game, but the Dodgers are 0-3 in his last three road starts, and he's 0-2 on the money line in two career starts versus the Royals (both in KC).  The Royals are 7-1 in their last eight interleague games, 25-11 in Guthrie's last 36 starts versus a team with a winning record, 15-4 in his last 19 home starts versus a team with a winning record, 10-4 in his last 14 starts as a home underdog and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Take the Royals on the run line.

6* AL Run Line Rout on Orioles +1.5 (-155)

The Key: I expect the Orioles to take care of business at home against a Chicago club that is 29-66 in its last 95 on the road, but I'm taking them on the run line for insurance.  Chicago's Chris Sale has strong numbers, but they are a bit skewed because he's made only two starts on the road.  The White Sox are 3-8 in Sale's last 11 road starts and 1-8 in his last nine starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  Chen has been rock solid on the season, and the Orioles are 3-0 all-time in his starts versus the White Sox, during which he's posted a 2.60 ERA.  The Orioles are 7-1 in his last eight starts as a home underdog.  Take Baltimore on the run line.

7* American League Game of the Month on Royals -140

The Key: The Royals have lost three in a row since rattling off 10 straight and are now 1.5 games behind Detroit in the AL Central.  This little slide is sitting well with them, and I expect them to bear down here to salvage a game in the series.  Kansas City's Ventura is in great form.  He's 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts, shutting down the Cardinals, Indians and Tigers.  10 of his 13 starts have been strong as he's allowed three runs or less in the 10.  Seattle's Elias has struggled of late with a 5.50 ERA over his last three starts.  He's been inconsistent, giving up four runs or more in five of his last eight starts.  The Royals are an impressive 39-15 in their last 54 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take KC.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -110

The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Josh Beckett, who has a 2.49 ERA on the season, a 2.27 ERA on the road, a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts and an ERA of 2.41 in eight starts versus the Padres.  He should be able to hold down a San Diego club that is batting .214.  Tyson Ross isn't in good current form.  The Padres are 0-3 in his last three starts while he's compiled a 5.00 ERA.  Ross's clubs are 3-14 the last three seasons when he gets the ball as an underdog of +100 to +150.  The Dodgers are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  Expect them to bounce back behind Beckett.

7* MLB Run Line Rout on Royals -1.5 (+133)

The Key: The Royals are 9-1 against the run line in their last 10 games, and they are in excellent position to cover another one here.  The Royals have dropped back-to-back games since winning 10 in a row and will be extremely focused to get back in the win column.  They have been crushing the ball, averaging 6.3 runs over their last 12 games, and the offensive onslaught should continue against Chris Young, who has a 5.18 ERA on the road.  His clubs are 2-6 in his last eight road starts, including 0-3 in his last three.  Jason Vargas has been in great form over his last five starts, and he's had no problem with Seattle lately.  He's 3-0 in his last three starts against the Mariners while giving up only three runs in 20 1-3 innings.  Each of these wins came by at least four runs.  The Royals are 6-0 in their last six Game 2's of a series, 7-0 in their last seven when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game and 7-0 in their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  You want to fade AL road underdogs of +150 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or lower on the season when they are matched up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who averages more than 6.5 innings per starts.  Doing so has produced a 61-9 mark the last five seasons that carries a 2.7 average margin of victory.  Take the Royals on the run line.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Year on Cardinals -160

The Key: The Phillies have had a tough time putting the bat on the ball against left-handed starters.  They are batting only .225 against them and averaging just 2.9 runs.  These struggles are nothing new as the Phillies are 13-27 in their last 40 road games versus left-handed starters.  Expect these struggles to continue as they go up against Jaime Garcia.  He's won his last two starts while allowing one run in 14 innings.  The first four hitters in Philadelphia's lineup - Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley and Howard - are a combined 6 for 39 (.154) against Garcia.  A.J. Burnett doesn't figure to have as much success against the Cardinals.  He's been rocked for 31 runs in his last five road starts against them spanning just 18 innings.  Home favorites of -150 or more that are seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite of -150 or more, provided they have a win percentage of 51-54% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 46-49%, are 46-7 since 1997.  Teams fitting this system have won by 3.1 runs on average.  It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 13-0 the last five seasons.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -141

The Key: The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five home games, 7-0 in their last seven as a home favorite, 4-0 in their last four home games versus right-handed starters and 4-0 in their last four home games versus teams with a losing road record.  I expect all these trends to be extended this evening.  The Nats have the edge on the mound with Zimmermann, who has a 2.98 ERA on the season and a 0.36 ERA over his last three starts.  He also has an ERA of 2.98 in eight starts versus the Braves.  The Braves are 39-13 in his last 52 starts as a favorite.  They are 13-2 the last two seasons when he works on five or six days' rest and 4-0 in his last four starts on five days' rest.  The Braves are 0-4 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter and 1-14 the last two seasons in road games versus an NL starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better.  Take Washington.

6* MLB Early Annihilator on Tigers -149

The Key: Look for the Tigers to avoid the four-game sweep.  They are 8-2 in their last 10 games after losing the first three games of a series and 7-2 in their last nine Game 4's of a series, and they are in excellent hands with Sanchez on the mound.  He's given up three earned runs or less in 13 consecutive starts, and he has a 0.99 ERA in five career starts versus the Royals.  Duffy has an ERA of 3.89 in seven career starts versus Detroit.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -103

The Key: Buehrle is having a terrific season for Toronto, but he has had no success against the Yankees.  His clubs are 1-15 all-time in his starts against the Yankees, including 0-12 in his last 12, and he's compiled a 6.02 ERA in these starts.  In addition, the Blue Jays are 2-23 in their last 25 at Yankee Stadium, including 0-14 in their last 14.  Toronto is slumping at the plate, batting an AL-worst .218 since June 7.  Its struggles figure to continue against Whitley, who is 2-0 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.41.  The Blue Jays have never faced him, and that gives him the edge.  Take New York.

6* Tuesday Night Interleague Annihilator on Nationals -133

The Key: Keuchel is having a season for Houston, but this is not a good spot for him and the Astros.  The 'stros are 1-10 in the last 11 meetings, and Keuchel will have a tough time shutting down an offense that is batting .285 versus left-handed starters.  Roark, who has a 1.55 ERA at home, a 1.29 ERA over his last three starts and a 0.84 ERA in interleague play, should have an easier time silencing a Houston club that is batting only .235 versus right-handed starters.  The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five games as a home favorite.  The Astros are 39-121 in their last 160 games versus a team with a winning record.  Take Washington.

7* MLB Mound Mismatch Game of the Week on Tigers -149

The Key: The Tigers have a significant edge on the mound with Scherzer.  They are 45-12 in his last 57 home starts, including 12-0 in his last 12.  They are also 6-0 in his last six starts in the second game of a series and 9-0 in his last nine starts versus Kansas City.  Ventura hasn't pitched on the road in over a month, and I expect that to cause him some problems.  Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts and 1-4 in his last five division starts.  The Tigers are batting .292 at home this season, and I expect them to put some good wood on the ball tonight while Scherzer takes care of the rest.  Take the Tigers.

6* Interleague Early Annihilator on Mariners -134

The Key: San Diego is 1-7 in its last eight, and I expect its struggles to continue this afternoon.  The Padres are 0-3 in Stults' last three starts, during which he's posted an ERA of 9.45.  They are 1-5 in his last six starts overall and 2-6 in his last eight on the road.  It is also worth noting that Stults is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.11 in four day starts this season.  Seattle's Elias, on the other hand, has been hard to pick up during the day, as evidenced by his 2.91 ERA in day starts.  Seattle's offensive numbers aren't very good, but San Diego's are even worse.  The Padres are batting .211 on the road and .198 versus left-handed starters.  Take the Mariners.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -135

The Key: The Royals have won their last seven, but I believe their streak comes to an end this evening.  They are 0-6 in their last six versus Detroit.  Verlander hasn't been at his best this season, but he's been pretty solid at home and will be lacking no confidence against a club he's owned.  He's 17-5 with an ERA of 2.88 in 31 starts versus the Royals.  The Tigers are 3-0 in his last three starts versus Kansas City with two of the wins coming this season.  Vargas has pitched well for the Royals, but he's had issues against Detroit.  He's 2-2 with an ERA of 5.01 in seven starts versus the Tigers.  The Royals are 0-2 this season in his starts versus Detroit.  The Tigers are 64-29 in Verlander's last 93 home starts, 7-2 in his last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 8-1 in his last nine Monday starts.  The Royals are 1-4 in Vargas' last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Detroit also has the edge offensively.  It is batting .290 at home and .285 versus left-handed starters.  Kansas City is batting .263 on the road and .258 versus right-handed starters.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Giants -1.5 (+108)

The Key: After falling in the first two games of the series, the Giants will rise to the occasion this afternoon.  They are an impressive 60-23 in their last 83 games as a favorite of -201 or greater, 15-1 in their last 16 Sunday games and 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first two games of a series.  They also have a significant edge on the mound with Bumgarner, who has a 2.67 ERA on the season and a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts.  Colorado's Nicasio has a 5.70 ERA on the season and a 14.48 ERA over his last three starts.  The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts in the third game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Rockies (these four victories have come by an average 2.8 runs).  The Rockies are 0-4 in Nicasio's 4 career road starts versus the Giants.  Take San Francisco on the run line.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Marlins -122

The Key: After losing the first two games of the series, I expect the Marlins to bear down and avoid being swept.  They have the clear edge on the mound with Alvarez, who has an ERA of 1.47 at home and a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts.  The Marlins are 5-0 in his last five starts and 5-0 in his last five home starts.  Worley is making his season debut for Pittsburgh, and I expect him to show some rust.  He had a 7.21 ERA in 10 starts for the Twins last season and has a 4.30 ERA in seven starts in Triple-A ball this year.  The Pirates are 10-25 in their last 35 in the third game of a series while the Marlins are 8-3 in the third game of a series.  Take Miami.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Brewers -120

The Key: The Brewers fell 6-5 yesterday, but they are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss, and the Reds are 2-14 in their last 16 games following a 1-run victory over a division opponent.  Milwaukee's Gallardo is coming off an absolute gem against Pittsburgh, and I believe he builds on that here.  The Brewers are 42-17 in his last 59 starts as a favorite.  They are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Reds. Latos is making his first big-league start of the season, and I expect to see some rust.  Latos has a 5.95 ERA in his last three starts against the Brewers, and his clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts at Miller Park.  The Reds have struggled on the road where they are batting .238 and averaging 3.4 runs per game.  Take the Brew Crew.

6* AL *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -101

The Key: Odds makers have made a mistake by listing the Orioles as the home underdog.  Baltimore fell yesterday, but it is 4-1 in its last 5 games following a loss and 8-2 in its last 10 versus division opponents.  Toronto's Dickey has an ERA of 6.41 on the road, and the Blue Jays are 1-5 in his last 6 road starts, 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite and 1-5 in his last 6 starts in the third game of a series.  Baltimore's Norris has a 2.38 ERA at home, and the Orioles are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts division starts.  He's 3-0 all-time on the money line in starts versus the Jays with a rock solid 3.18 ERA in these starts.  Dickey has a 4.36 ERA in 8 starts versus the O's and has been rocked for 6 earned runs in two of his last three starts against them.  Take Baltimore.

6* Interleague Annihilator on Angels -116

The Key: Atlanta's Harang is 0-5 with an ERA of 7.59 in seven starts against the Angels.  His clubs are 0-5 in his last five starts against them and lost these games by 6.2 runs on average.  The Angels are very familiar with Harang, having seen him six times the past two seasons.  LA's Wilson has never faced the Braves, and that's to his advantage.  There are a lot of trends in favor of this play: the Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 interleague games, 4-0 in their last four interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 43-19 in their last 62 interleague road games and 20-6 in their last 26 versus NL East foes.  The Halos are also 6-2 in Wilson's last 8 interleague starts and 9-3 in his last 12 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Braves are 0-4 in their last four home games, 0-6 in their last six interleague games and 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Take the Angels.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -116

The Key: The Marlins are 26-11 in their last 37 at home, including 10-2 this season when playing a team with a losing record.  The Fish have crushed left-handed starting pitching.  They are batting .296 and averaging 5.8 runs per game off lefty starters this season.  They are 13-4 in their last 17 games versus lefty starters.  Eovaldi has pitched well, especially at home where he has a 2.49 ERA.  His clubs are 7-2 in his last nine home starts.  Miami's bullpen has been holding up on its end of the bargain as well, and that's significant because the Marlins are 6-0 this season when the bullpen ERA is under 3.00 over the last 10 games.  The Pirates are a very poor 67-149 in their last 216 road games versus clubs with a home winning percentage above .600.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Locke's last four starts, 0-5 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 6-13 in his last 19 road starts.  Stanton bats a team-high .354 against lefty starters, and he's 3 for 5 with a homer against Locke.  Locke is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts versus the Marlins, allowing them to hit .338.  The Pirates are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.  Take the Marlins.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -143

The Key: Following losses in each of the first three games of this series, I expect the Giants to bear down and salvage a game.  The Giants are 5-0 in their last five games after losing the first three games of a series, 8-0 in their last eight Game 4s of a series and 4-0 in their last four Thursday games.  San Francisco is in excellent hands with Hudson on the hill.  His clubs are a perfect 15-0 in his home starts since the beginning of last season and have won them by an average of 2.9 runs.  Hudson has dominated Washington throughout his career (16-5 lifetime with a 2.45 ERA in 29 starts), and he's 3-0 on the money line with an ERA of 0.84 in his last three starts against the Nationals.  Take San Francisco.

7* National League Game of the Month on Giants -125

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Giants will take the field with extra focus and motivation.  The Giants are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series.  Washington's Roark hasn't had his best stuff on the road where he has an ERA of 4.42.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts versus teams with a winning record.  The Giants are 3-0 in Cain's last three starts, and he has a rock solid 2.91 ERA at home on the season.  Also, San Francisco is 5-0 in his last five home starts versus the Nationals.  He held them to two earned runs or less in four of these starts.  Take San Francisco.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Phillies -125

The Key: The Phillies get the call here due to the dominance Hamels had displayed against San Diego. He's 8-2 with an ERA of 2.39 in 14 starts against the Padres, and the Phillies are 6-0 in his last six starts against them.  He's held them to one earned run or none five times during the six-game win streak. Hamels enters in good form with an ERA of 2.08 over his last three starts.  The same can't be said about Ross, who has a 5.51 ERA over his last three starts.  Ross made his lone start against the Phillies last season and was shelled, giving up six earned in 2/3 of an inning.  That translates to an 80.60 ERA.  The Padres are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog and 19-46 in their last 65 meetings with Philadelphia.

6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Royals +103

The Key: The Indians are playing their best ball of the season, but they've done the majority of their damage at home.  They are just 12-20 on the road and will have their work cut out for themselves versus the southpaw Vargas.  Cleveland is batting only .238 versus left-handed starters this season and is 2-10 in its last 12 road games versus a lefty starter.  Kluber has been going good for Cleveland.  However, home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that allowed one run or less last game are 26-11 the last three seasons if they average 4.5 runs per game or less and are up against an AL starter with an ERA of 3.50 or lower.  The Indians are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Royals.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -148

The Key: The Cubs are a horrendous 38-83 in their last 121 road games versus teams with a winning home record, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in its last five series openers, and it has won eight of its last 10 home games versus the Cubs.  Chicago's Edwin Jackson has a 4.59 ERA on the season, a 6.12 ERA on the road and a 6.91 ERA over his last three starts.  The Cubs are 5-17 in Jackson's last 22 starts, 1-7 in his last eight road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts, 0-6 in his last six starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-8 in his last eight starts on regular rest (4 days).  The Cubs are also 0-2 this season in his starts versus the Pirates.  Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton has an ERA of 3.31 on the season, a 2.39 ERA at home and a 2.81 ERA over his last three starts.  The Pirates are 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Cubs.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Reds -138

The Key: The Reds are on a 7-0 run in Simon's starts versus clubs with a losing record.  They are on a 9-0 run in his starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse, a 9-0 run in his starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .255 or worse and a 6-0 run versus teams that are getting outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game on the season.  He has a rock solid 3.03 ERA on the season and has been nearly unhittable in the daylight, when he has a 1.96 ERA.  Hernandez has a 4.18 ERA in his starts and an ugly 5.76 ERA in his road starts.  The Phillies are 0-5 in their last five games following a win and 0-6 in their last six after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  Look for the Reds to win this one comfortably as they get to Hernandez and Simon takes care of the rest.

6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Royals -102

The Key: This is a good spot for the Royals, who have won three of four and have been enjoying the comforts of their own beds since late Tuesday night.  The Yankees have dropped four of five and are heading out on the road for the first time since May 28.  The Yankees are just 1-5 in their last six series openers, and I look for them to struggle in this spot versus Guthrie, who has a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts.  He's 2-0 in his last two starts versus the Yanks, holding them to two earned runs in 13 2-3 innings during this span.  The Royals are 21-8 in Guthrie's last 29 home starts and 24-10 in his last 34 starts versus a team with a winning record.  New York's Whitley has yet to throw more than 91 pitches, and that puts a lot of pressure on the pen.  Take Kansas City.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Rangers -1.5 (+127)

The Key: The Indians were a perfect 6-0 during their recent homestand, but the road doesn't figure to treat them as well.  They are a major league-worst 9-19 on the road, including 0-4 in their last four away from Cleveland.  Their road struggles should continue with Texas giving the ball to Darvish, who has a 1.66 ERA over his last five starts.  The Rangers are 11-2 in Darvish's last 13 starts and 7-0 in his last seven starts on regular rest (4 days).  These 11 victories have come by an average of 4.1 runs.  The seven wins of the 7-0 run have come by 3.1 runs on average.  Cleveland's Bauer has had a rough go on the road.  The Indians are 1-3 in his last four road starts, and he's allowed four runs or more three times during this stretch.  Each of these three defeats came by two runs or more.  Cleveland was lucky to get the one victory during this span since Bauer gave up five runs in 2-3 innings in that start.  Take Texas on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -122

The Key: The Rockies are due to bust out here against Bronson Arroyo, who has a 4.95 ERA over his last three starts.  He was rocked for 6 runs the last time he faced the Rockies and has been touched for at least 6 runs in three of his last five starts against them.  Nicasio has held the D-backs to two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts against them.  The Rockies are 5-1 in Nicasio's last six home starts, 7-1 in his last eight starts following a team loss in their previous game and 6-0 in his last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.  Nicasio has a 3.60 ERA in six home starts, including a 2.50 ERA over his last three.  Take Colorado.

6* AL *CA$H COW* on Yankees -136

The Key: (Condensed writeup due to early start) Tanaka has been baffling everyone, and I expect this trend to continue.  The Yankees are 8-1 in Tanaka's last 9 starts, including 4-0 at home during this stretch.  The Yankees are 45-19 in their last 64 games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Athletics are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog.

6* AL CA$H COW on Tigers -141

The Key: (Condensed writeup due to early start) The Blue Jays have been rolling, but I expect Verlander to silence them today.  The Tigers are 64-28 in Verlander's last 92 home starts and 38-15 in his last 53 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Blue Jays, including 3-0 in his last three overall and 3-0 in his last three at home.  Happ isn't in the same category as Verlander, and the Tigers are 18-6 in their last 24 home games versus a left-handed starter.

6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Padres -110

The Key: This is a nice spot to back the Padres.  This is the final game of a 10-game road trip for Pittsburgh, and the Pirate players can't wait to get home.  Because they've already won this series, they won't take the field with the same level of focus and intensity.  San Diego has been an excellent investment in spots such as this.  The Padres are 6-1 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series.  They are 12-4 the last two seasons when seeking revenge for two straight home losses to an opponent.  You also want to take favorites of -110 or higher that have an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games and a batting average of .250 or lower on the season when they are matched up against an NL starter with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Doing so has produced a 90-36 (71.4%) mark the last five seasons.  Liriano and Kennedy are trending in opposite directions.  Liriano has a 5.74 ERA over his last three starts while Kennedy has an ERA of 2.89 over his last three starts.  Take San Diego.

7* MLB Mound Mismatch Game of the Year on Rockies -155

The Key: Colorado has the edge on the mound with Jorge De La Rosa, who is 6-0 with an ERA of 1.80 over his last seven starts.  The only time he didn't earn a victory during this stretch was when rain suspended his outing against San Francisco on May 22.  The Rockies have lost their last four, but they are giving the ball to the right guy.  They are 18-0 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss.  They are also 10-0 during this span in his starts following two or more consecutive team defeats.  De La Rosa has never lost to the D-backs at Coors Field.  The Rockies are 10-0 in his home starts against them, during which he has posted a 1.79 ERA.  Arizona's Chase Anderson is making his first start at flighty Coors.  Pitchers without much experience there tend to struggle.  He'll have a rough time with a lineup that is batting .342 and averaging 7.0 runs per game at home.  Take the Rockies.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -147

The Key: The Cardinals are an impressive 73-28 the last three seasons in home games against teams that have a losing record.  The Cards have dropped five of seven and are struggling at the plate, but the numbers suggest that now's the time to back them.  Consider that St. Louis is 14-1 the last three seasons in home games following a stretch where it has lost five or six of its last seven games.  It is also 17-2 in home games the last three seasons after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span.  The Cardinals are 8-1 in Miller's last nine home starts versus a team with a losing record and 6-0 in his last six starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Royals are 6-15 in Duffy's last 21 starts versus a team with a winning record.  They are also just 1-6 in their last seven versus St. Louis.

7* Interleague Run Line Rout of the Year on White Sox -1.5

The Key: The White Sox are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series and have won these by an average of 4.2 runs.  They are also 9-2 this season when playing with double revenge, winning by an average of 2.5 run in these contests.  Chris Sale is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA on the season and has a 0.56 ERA over his last three starts.  He gives the Sox a significant advantage considering San Diego's Eric Stults is 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA on the road.  You want to fade road underdogs priced at +150 or more following a win by two runs or less when they are matched up against an opponent that has scored three runs or fewer in four straight games.  Doing so has produced a 44-6 mark since 1997.  Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 2.9 runs.  The White Sox are batting .274 and averaging 5.2 runs per game against lefty starters.  They should get to Stults and Sale should take care of the rest.

6* Interleague Total of the Week on Rangers/Nationals Under 7

The Key: Yu Darvish has some of the best stuff in baseball, and he should have a ton of success here against a Washington club that isn't familiar with his stuff.  In fact, only one Nationals regular has faced Darvish, who has a 1.52 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.83 ERA in six interleague starts.  The "under" is 5-1 in Darvish's six interleague starts and 19-6-2 in his last 27 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Washington's Tanner Roark has a 2.45 ERA over his last four starts while holding opponents to a .183 average.  He has a 1.19 ERA in 12 career home games and has given up just one run in 19 innings of interleague action.  The "under" is 5-0-1 in Roark's last six home starts. Take the Under.

7* NL Non-Division Game of the Year on Dodgers -140

The Key: Despite winning the first two games of this series, the Pirates are still only 7-15 in their last 22 road games.  They are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 105-229 in their last 334 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are also 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3s of a series.  It is also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 16-35 in road games following two or more consecutive wins under manager Hurdle.  The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first two games of a series, and I love them here behind Ryu.  The Dodgers are 7-0 in the southpaw's last 7 starts versus the NL Central and 15-3 in his last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is batting a dismal .210 versus lefty starters this season.  LA has a much better chance of getting to Cumpton as it is batting .265 versus right-handed starters.  The Pirates are only 27-67 in the last 94 meetings.  Take the Dodgers.

6* Interleague Annihilator on Indians -145

The Key: Colorado isn't the same team on the road where it is batting .190 over its last nine games.  Look for its road woes to continue with Cleveland sending Kluber to the hill.  The right-hander has a 2.02 ERA in five starts this month and leads the majors with 48 strikeouts over that span.  The Indians are 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts, 11-3 in his last 14 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 interleague starts.  The Rockies are an atrocious 37-78 in their last 115 interleague road games and 5-21 in their last 26 interleague games versus teams with a losing record.  The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague home games and 7-0 in their last 7 interleague home games versus teams with a winning record.  Colorado's Nicasio has been decent, but hasn't been dominant like Kluber.  The Rockies are 3-7 in his last 10 starts as an underdog and 1-6 in his last 7 road starts versus teams with a losing record.  Take the Tribe.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -127

The Key: The Cardinals fell last night, but they are a tremendous 67-29 following a loss going back to the beginning of last season.  They are 38-15 in their last 53 following a defeat.  In addition, St. Louis is a nasty 40-16 in its last 56 at home, and it has even been dominant at home versus top-notch pitching.  The Cards are 32-11 since the start of last season in home games versus NL starters with an ERA of 3.50 or lower.  They have won these games by an average score of 4.6 to 2.5.  San Francisco's Vogelsong had an ERA of 3.20, but it should be noted that his road ERA is 5.31.  He also has a 5.40 ERA in nine starts versus the Cardinals, and his clubs are 1-3 all-time in St. Louis.  Garcia has the superior stuff and enters this contest with tons of confidence following a strong performance in Cincinnati.  He's has a 0.81 ERA over his last three starts against the Giants.  The Cardinals are 14-5 in Garcia's last 19 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.  Take the Cards.

6* Interleague Annihilator on Brewers -119

The Key: Gallardo delivered a walkoff double last night, and I expect him to follow up that clutch hit with a clutch performance on the mound.  He missed his last start due to an ankle injury, and the extra time off should do him some good.  The Brewers are 4-0 in his last four starts on seven or more days of rest.  He should also benefit from facing a team that isn't familiar with his stuff.  The Brewers are 6-1 in Gallardo's last seven starts in the third game of a series and 40-16 in his last 56 starts as a favorite.  Milwaukee, however, is familiar with Norris from his days in Houston.  The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 4.45 ERA (Gallardo has a 2.90 ERA at home).  He has also struggled at Miller Park, where he has a 6.23 ERA in four career starts.  Bet the Brew Crew.

7* AL Game of the Month on Royals -131

The Key: The Royals go back on the road for six games following this series so they will really go after the last two games of this three-game set.  The Astros won Game 1 handily, but they are yet to prove they can be trusted on the road.  They are just 68-168 in their last 236 road games.  They are even 30-77 in their last 107 road games versus a team with a losing record and 27-77 in their last 104 road games versus a team with a winning home record.  The Astros are also 30-74 in their last 104 in the second game of a series.  Houston is 0-4 in scheduled starter McHugh's last four starts, during which he's compiled a 5.16 ERA.  The Royals are 21-7 in Guthrie's last 28 home starts, 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite, 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  His clubs are 4-1 all-time in his starts against Houston.  Take Kansas City.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Nationals -132

The Key: I'm fading the Marlins on the road where they are 32-81 in their last 113.  It's also worth noting that they've lost four consecutive series openers and are 0-4 in Eovaldi's road starts this season.  He has a 4.99 ERA in these starts, a 5.28 ERA over his last three starts and a 6.00 ERA in three starts versus Washington.  The Nationals' Roark has a 1.01 home ERA on the season and a 2.19 ERA versus Miami.  Washington is 18-4 in its last 22 home games versus the Marlins, including 3-0 this season.  Take the Nats.

6* MLB Early Annihilator on A's -128

The Key: Despite losses in three straight, the A's are still 11-4 in their last 15 games.  Look for them to bounce back strong here.  The Athletics are 27-13 in their last 40 road games, 42-20 in their last 62 games as a road favorite and 17-5 in their last 22 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  Toronto's J.A. Happ has a 5.40 ERA at home and a 6.08 ERA over his last three starts.  An Oakland club that is 12-5 against southpaw starters this season while averaging 5.0 runs per game should give him problems.  The Blue Jays are 2-8 in Happ's last 10 home starts, 1-7 in his last eight starts as a home underdog, 1-6 in his last seven starts in the third game of a series and 0-4 in his last four starts versus the AL West.  Drew Pomeranz has been perfect.  The A's are 3-0 in his three starts, during which he has 0.00 ERA.  Oakland also has a significant edge in the bullpen.  Take the A's.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Nationals -108

The Key: Washington has the edge on the mound with Strasburg, who is starting to find his groove.  The right-hander has a 2.30 ERA this month and has held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts.  Pittsburgh's Cole has a 4.74 ERA on the month, which is a big issue when you consider that Washington is 20-1 this season when scoring at least four runs.  Strasburg has been nothing short of dominant in four career starts versus the Pirates.  The Nationals have won three of them while he's compiled a 2.57 ERA and struck out 47 while walking four.  Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen are a combined 3 for 24 against him.  The Nationals are 47-18 in their last 65 games as a road favorite, 6-1 in Strasburg's last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game and 18-5 in his last 23 starts in the third game of a series.  Take Washington.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Marlins -108

The Key: The Marlins are showing tremendous value at this price at home where they are 23-6 in their last 29.  The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six as injuries to key players are taking a toll.  There's no doubt Miami has the edge on the mound with Koehler, who has a 2.25 ERA on the season and a 1.93 ERA over his last three starts.  The Marlins are 5-0 in his last five at home where he has a 0.64 ERA this season.  It is also to Koehler's advantage that he hasn't faced the Brewers because they won't be at all familiar with his stuff.  The Marlins are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus a right-handed starter, and I like their chances of getting to Estrada, who has a 4.76 ERA over his last three starts and a 7.43 ERA in three career starts against Miami.  Take the Marlins.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -114

The Key: The Rockies are showing some nice value at home at this price with De La Rosa on the mound.  The Rockies are 5-0 in his last five starts, 40-11 in his last 51 home starts and 45-11 in his last 56 starts as a favorite.  They are 17-4 in De La Rosa's last 21 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last four starts versus teams with a winning record.  Colorado is also 4-0 in his last four home starts versus the Giants.  Hudson is having a good season, but he missed his last start and will likely show some rust as a result.  It's not good to be rusty at Coors Field where the Rockies have been hammering the baseball all season.  Plus, Hudson's clubs are just 1-4 in his last five starts at Coors.  The Giants are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Colorado.  Take the Rockies.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -123

The Key: I missed with the Red Sox yesterday, but I'm not hesitating to come right back with them here.  They are 38-18 in their last 56 games following a loss and 9-2 in their last 11 in the second game of a series.  The Blue Jays are just 2-6 in their last eight in the second game of a series.  Buchholz is yet to re-discover the form that allowed him to go 12-1 last season, but I like his chances of throwing a gem here.  He has an ERA of 2.52 in 18 starts versus Toronto.  The Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholz's last five home starts versus a team with a winning record, 9-1 in his last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 11-2 in his last 13 starts on five days' rest.  The Red Sox are 11-5 in his last 16 starts versus the Blue Jays.  Take Boston.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -141

The Key: After getting swept at home by the Tigers, Boston will be all business when it takes the field this evening.  The Red Sox have struggled at the plate lately.  However, first half of the season home favorites of -110 or higher that have a batting average of .175 or worse over their last three games are 74-31 the last five seasons.  I expect Boston's bats to come alive against Toronto lefty J.A. Happ.  Bean Town is 10-4 against lefty starters this season, batting .263 and averaging 5.3 runs against them.  The Blue Jays are 6-13 in Happ's last 19 starts and 0-4 in his last four starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Despite Boston's recent skid, it is still 38-17 in its last 55 games following a loss.  Felix Doubront has been dialed in lately.  He has a 2.55 ERA over his last three starts.  The Red Sox are 9-4 in his last 13 starts and 12-4 in his last 16 starts as a favorite.  Take the Red Sox.

6* Monday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Indians -109

The Key: Detroit has been rolling, but I expect a letdown following a huge series sweep on the road against the reigning champs.  The Indians are an impressive 41-18 in their last 59 games as a favorite, and they should be just fine with Kluber on the hill.  They are 10-3 in Kluber's last 13 home starts, 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a favorite and 6-1 in his last seven series-opening starts.  The Tigers, on the other hand, are 2-5 in Smyly's last seven starts and 0-5 in his last five starts versus a club with a losing record.  The Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 home games versus a left-handed starter.  Take Cleveland.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -141

The Key: Following back-to-back losses, the Giants will bounce back to earn a series split.  The Giants are 24-8 in their last 32 games following a loss, 6-0 in their last six Game 4s of a series and 11-1 in their last 12 Sunday games. The Marlins are 1-5 in their last six Game 4s of a series, 3-13 in Turner's last 16 starts and 0-6 in his last six starts versus a team with a winning record.  Turner doesn't help himself very often.  He has just 10 strikeouts on the season.  This is significant because the Giants are 15-1 the last three seasons versus teams starting a pitcher who strikes out an average of three batters per start or less.  The Giants have won these games by an average score of 6.4 to 2.8.  Vogelsong has been pitching well, allowing one run or none in three of his last four starts.  Turner, on the other hand, has given up five runs or more in four of his last five starts.  Take the Giants.

6* AL *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -125

The Key: Detroit's Porcello hasn't been as good on the road where he has a 4.44 ERA.  Plus, the Tigers are 1-4 in his starts versus Boston, during which he's compiled an ERA of 10.42.  Lackey has a 2.88 ERA at home, and the Red Sox are 10-4 in his last 14 home starts, 9-2 in his last 11 starts versus winning clubs and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite.  He's 7-3 with an ERA of 3.57 in 13 career starts versus Detroit.  Boston is 11-2 the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a shutout loss.  It has won by an average score of 6.2 to 3.6 in this spot.  Lastly, the Tigers are 16-37 in the last 53 meetings in Boston.

7* NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Phillies -117

The Key: Hamels has owned the Reds.  The Phillies are 11-0 all-time in his starts against them, during which he's posted a 1.51 ERA.  The Reds took Game 1, but they are 0-4 in their last four following a win, 1-5 in their last six in the second game of a series, 1-5 in their last six as an underdog and 1-5 in their last six road games.  They are also 0-4 in Bailey's last four starts as an underdog and 1-10 in his last 11 road starts when the money line is +125 to -125.  The Reds are 1-5 in Bailey's 6 career road starts versus the Phillies.  Cincinnati is 17-35 in the last 52 meetings, including 7-20 in the last 27 in Philadelphia.  Take Philly.

6* MLB Bailout Blowout on Angels -137

The Key: I expect Mike Trout's game-winning blast to have a negative carry-over effect for Tampa Bay.  The Rays haven't been able to bounce back from tough losses, going 1-7 this season after a loss of two runs or less.  It doesn't hurt LAs chances that ace Jered Weaver is getting the ball.  The Angels are 3-0 in his last three starts, during which he's posted a 1.83 ERA.  You don't want to go against him at home when he's rolling.  Consider that LA is 15-2 all-time in home starts that occur after he's given up 1 earned run or none in his last two outings.  The Angels are 39-13 in his last 52 home starts overall and 26-6 in his last 32 home starts versus teams that have a losing record.  Tampa Bay's Chris Archer is struggling.  He has a 6.35 ERA on the road and a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts.  LA also holds advantages at the plate.  It averages 4.9 runs per game at home while the Rays are scoring just 3.3 runs on the road.  Take the Angels.

7* NL West Game of the Year on Rockies -148

The Key: This is a tough spot for San Diego, which played a double header in Cincinnati yesterday.  Fatigue will be an issue for the Padres.  So will Jorge De La Rosa.  Colorado's recent road trip didn't go well, but it had yesterday off to regroup and is sending the right horse to the hill.  The Rockies are an incredible 40-12 in De La Rosa's last 52 home starts.  And when he gets the ball following a team loss, they are on a perfect 16-0 run.  When he gets the ball off two consecutive team losses or more, they are on an 8-0 tear.  Clearly, this competitor is clutch.  He's dialed in right now too.  The southpaw is 4-0 in his last four starts with a 2.63 ERA.  They are a perfect 8-0 in his last eight home starts dating back to last season.  The Rockies are 11-1 in De La Rosa's last 12 starts versus the Padres, including 7-0 in his home starts during this span.  While Eric Stults has an unbeaten record versus the Rockies, he's fortunate that's the case since he's allowed 9 runs in his last 9 2-3 innings against them.  Stults is in poor form with a 6.62 road ERA on the season and a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts.  He hasn't had nearly the same success on the road where the Padres are 5-13 in his last 18 starts and 2-8 in his last 10 starts versus winning clubs.  The Rockies also have a huge advantage offensively.  They are batting .353 at home and averaging 7.7 runs per game.  San Diego is batting .196 on the road and averaging 2.4 runs per game.  The Padres are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in Colorado.  Take the Rockies.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -133

The Key: I'll back the Giants, who are 10-3 in their last 13 at home, versus a Miami club that is 4-15 on the road.  Going back further, the Marlins are 30-79 in their last 109 road games.  The Giants have won 15 of their last 20 overall and are 14-3 in their last 17 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Marlins are 0-3 in Eovaldi's road starts, and he's 1-2 with an ERA of 12.21 in three starts versus San Francisco.  Even though Cain is still looking for his first win of the season, he is the better starter in this matchup, and I believe he's due.  He's held the opposition to two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and 13 of his last 17.  When the money line is +100 to -150, you want to back home teams that are starting a pitcher who is winless after five starts or more if they have a hot bullpen with an ERA under 3.00 over the last 10 games.  Doing so has produced a 70-26 mark since 1997.  Take San Francisco.

6* ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Yankees -154

The Key: The Mets took the first two games of the series at Yankee Stadium, and now the series shifts to Citi Field, but I don't expect the Mets to keep rolling.  The Yankees are an impressive 43-19 in their last 62 games after losing the first two games of a series, and the Mets are an atrocious 19-53 in their last 72 games as a home underdog.  No club has been able to figure out Tanaka, and I believe this trend continues.  The Yanks are 5-0 in his last five starts and 3-0 this season in his road starts.  He's struck out 58 batters and walked only seven.  On the road he has 22 Ks and just one free pass.  The Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Mets are 0-5 in their last five interleague home games.  The Mets' Montero is a promising prospect, but he's not Tanaka.  I expect him to have trouble getting out a Yankees club that is batting .265 on the road in his big league debut.  The Mets are batting just .208 at home.  Take the Yankees.

6* MLB Interleague *CA$H COW* on Royals -144

The Key: The Rockies are off to good start in interleague play this season, but I'm not ready to trust it.  Five of their seven interleague games have come at home, and they haven't been the same team on the road.  Colorado is 12-30 in interleague play since 2012, including 1-14 during this span versus teams averaging less than 4.2 runs per game.  It has lost by an average of 3.4 runs in these 15 contests.  Going back further, the Rockies are 37-76 in their last 113 interleague road games and 36-76 in their last 112 games as a road underdog.  The Royals bring a lot of momentum home after finishing their road trip 4-2.  They are 6-0 in their last six home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 30-11 in their last 41 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Kansas City has the edge on the mound with Shields, who has a 2.70 ERA through eight starts.  Colorado's Morales has a 5.31 ERA through seven starts.  The Royals are 18-5 in Shields' last 23 starts as a favorite. Take Kansas City.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -144

The Key: The Dodgers have been a disappointment thus far at home where they are 7-12, but they are still showing value at this price against a Miami club that is 3-13 away from home this season.  The Marlins are 15-40 in their last 55 road games, 29-73 in their last 102 games as a road underdog and 19-53 in their last 72 road games versus a right-handed starter.  The Fish are even on a 0-4 slide in road games versus teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400.  Koehler is having a strong season, but the Marlins are 0-3 in his road starts.  He has a 4.15 ERA in those games.  They are 1-7 in his last eight road starts versus a team with a winning record.  Haren has been at his best at home where he has a 1.86 ERA.  His clubs are 8-3 in his last 11 starts.  The Dodgers are batting only .248 at home,  but they are hitting right-handed starters at a .266 clip.  The Marlins are batting a dismal .212 on the road and just .247 versus righty starters.  Take LA.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Nationals +121

The Key: This is an excellent price to get behind Gio Gonzalez, who is the better starter in this matchup without a doubt regardless of what this season's numbers say.  It's starting to show too as Scott Kazmir is coming back down to earth with an ERA of 4.24 over his last three starts.  Gonzo has an ERA of 2.95 over his last three starts.  The Nats are an impressive 27-12 in Gonzo's road starts since the beginning of last season.  Washington has lost the first two games of the series, but it is still 9-3 in its last 12 games following a loss, 7-3 in its last 10 Game 3s of a series and 6-1 in its last 7 interleague road games versus a left-handed starter.  The Nationals are batting a phenomenal .289 versus lefty starters this season.  Take Washington.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -145

The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Greinke, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 22 consecutive starts.  His clubs are 40-14 all-time in his starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175.  The Dodgers are 15-3 in his last 18 home starts, 14-2 in his last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game, 7-0 in his last 7 starts in the third game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  San Francisco's Cain has a 5.25 ERA on the road this season.  The Giants are 1-9 in his last 10 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 division starts.  The Giants are 0-4 in Cain's last 4 starts versus the Dodgers and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus the Dodgers.  Greinke's clubs are 3-0 all-time in his starts versus the Giants.  Take LA.

6* MLB Bailout Blowout on A's -114

The Key: The Athletics are 92-44 in their last 136 interleague home games and 70-34 in their last 104 games as a home favorite.  They are 17-3 since 1997 in home games versus NL clubs that allow 3.8 runs per game of less.  The Nationals are 18-37 in their last 55 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record and 4-21 in their last 25 games as a road underdog of +100 to +125.  Fister is making his first start of the season, and I expect him to show some rust.  His clubs are 5-14 in his last 19 road starts when the line is +125 to -125.  The A's saw him twice last season and hit him hard, touching him for 10 runs in 11 innings.  Milone is off to a rough start for Oakland, but only one of his starts have come at home.  Only three Nationals have seen him, so their lack of familiarity with his stuff plays greatly in our favor.  The Athletics are 6-1 in Milone's last seven interleague starts.  You want to back teams when the money line is +100 to -150 that are starting a pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts as long as the bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 over the last 10 games.  Doing so has produced a 69-26 mark since 1997.  Take the A's.

6* MLB Bailout Blowout on Mariners -125

The Key: The Mariners have won 8 of 10 while the Royals have dropped 5 of 7.  The Mariners are also 6-1 in their last seven home games versus the Royals.  The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in their last five games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  I'm a big believer in Iwakuma.  The Mariners are 3-0 in his last three starts and 17-7 in his last 24 home starts.  He figures to get plenty of run support tonight as the M's have won 9 of 13 against left-handed starters this season while batting .250 and averaging 4.6 runs.  The Royals have been doing some winning with Duffy on the mound, but he puts a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has an ERA above 4.00 because he often doesn't go very deep in games.  The Royals are 5-13 in his last 18 starts versus teams with a winning record.  Take Seattle.

7* MLB Interleague Total of the Month on Rockies/Rangers Under 9.5

The Key: Plays "under" on all teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 in Wednesday interleague games has produced a 98-46 mark the last five seasons.  Texas' Colby Lewis is 15-1 "under" all-time in Wednesday starts, and we have seen only 6.7 total runs scored on average in these outings.  Lewis has been really good lately with a 3.37 ERA over his last three starts.  Jorge De La Rosa has returned to form following a slow start and has an ERA of 2.50 over his last three starts.  With as good as these pitchers are going, I feel this line is too high.  The "under" is 5-0 in De La Rosa's last five road starts when the total is 9.0-10.5.  De La Rosa is also 17-3 "under" all-time in road games following two or more consecutive wins.  We have seen just 6.0 total runs scored on average in these outings.  The Rockies haven't had the same scoring punch on the road where they are averaging just 4.0 runs per game.  The Rangers are averaging only 4.1 runs per game at home.  Take the Under.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Rays -143

The Key: Baltimore's Chris Tillman is extremely fortunate to be 3-0 on the road considering the 5.21 ERA he's compiled away from home.  He's currently in poor form with an ERA of 7.63 over his last three starts.  He's struggled against the Rays, going 1-4 in his last five starts against them.  He has a 4.90 ERA in 11 career starts against them.  Tampa Bay's Archer is a different pitcher at home where he has a 2.13 ERA on the season.  The Rays are 7-0 in his last seven home starts, 6-0 in his last six home starts versus teams with a winning record, 5-0 in his last five starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-0 in his last five starts overall versus teams with a winning record.  Archer was hit hard in a loss in Baltimore last month and will be very focused here as a result.  The Rays are 2-0 in his two home starts versus the Orioles.  The Orioles are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings, including 0-4 in the last four in Tampa Bay.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Royals/Padres Under 6.5

The Key: San Diego has been a terrific "Under" investment.  It is on a 41-15-4 "Under" run in its last 60 games.  The Padres are 15-4 "Under" this season when the total is 7.0 or less.  Both teams are really struggling at the plate, and that sets up an extraordinary "Under" system.  You want to play the "Under" on any team (KC) that has had 7 hits or less in 4 consecutive games when they are matched up against a team that has had less than 10 hits in 5 straight games.  Doing so has produced a 40-13 mark the last 5 seasons.  The Padres are 20-5-1 "Under" in their last 26 games versus starters with a WHIP of less than 1.150.  They'll have a tough time getting to Ventura, who has a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of 1.067.  His ERA is just 0.60 on the road, and the Royals have finished "Under" the total in 4 of his 5 starts this season.  Stults has been good at home where he has a 3.27 ERA, and the Padres are 5-1 "Under" in his 6 interleague starts.  Take the Under.

6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Brewers/Reds Under 7.5

The Key: Expect a low-scoring game in Cincinnati with a couple hot starters gripping the pill.  Lohse is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA that is down to 2.33 over his last three starts.  Simon is 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA.  Simon is 7-0 "Under" in his last seven starts, and we haven't seen more than seven total runs scored in any of these games.  Lohse has a 2.89 ERA in 15 starts versus Cincinnati, and he has held the Reds to one earned run or none in eight of his last 11 starts against them.  The "Under" is 7-0 in his last seven starts versus the Reds, and we haven't seen more than seven total runs scored in these games. Take the Under.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -115

The Key: Minnesota can't be trusted with Correia on the mound.  He has a 7.33 ERA on the season that dips to 9.60 at home.  The Twins are 4-18 in his last 22 starts, 1-8 in his last nine home starts, 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus winning clubs, 0-5 in his last five home starts versus winning clubs, 0-6 in his last six starts in the second game of a series and 0-4 in his last four starts versus AL East foes.  Correia also has a 6.00 ERA in two career starts versus Baltimore.  Chen has settled in following a pair of sub-par outings to start the season.  He has an ERA of 2.95 over his last three starts, and the Orioles are 4-0 in his last four starts.  They are 4-0 in his last four starts in the second game of a series and 2-0 in his starts against the Twins.  He has a 2.25 ERA in both career starts versus the Twins and both were in Minnesota.  It is also worth noting that the Orioles are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  You want to fade AL home teams that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.600 to 1.700 and an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last three starts.  Doing so has produced a 36-15 mark the last five seasons.  Take Baltimore.
 

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Rockies -125

The Key: The Rockies have the edge on the mound with De La Rosa.  They are 39-12 in his last 51 home starts and 43-11 in his last 54 starts as a favorite.  Colorado is 8-0 the last two seasons in his home starts versus clubs with winning records, winning these games by an average of 3.4 runs.  It is also 7-0 the last two seasons in his home starts when the money line is +125 to -125, winning these contests by an average of 3.3 runs.  De La Rosa is nearly unbeatable at home as he's learned how to pitch at flighty Coors.  Plus, the Mets have really struggled against southpaw starters and are just 5-15 against them dating back to last season.  Wheeler has been good for New York overall, but he has a 4.77 ERA on the road and has never pitched inside hitter-friendly Coors Field.  The Mets are 1-4 in Wheeler's last five starts versus teams with a winning record and 1-5 in his last six starts as an underdog.  The Rockies are batting .346 and averaging 7.4 runs per game at home.  The Mets are hitting a decent .255 on the road and averaging 5.2 runs per game, but they are batting only .208 over their last 12 games and are batting just .216 against lefty starters.  Take Colorado.

7* NL Game of the Week on Braves -125

The Key: Atlanta has dropped the first two games of the series, but it hasn't been swept at Miami since 2006.  The Marlins are 18-45 in their last 63 Game 3s of a series.  The Braves are 40-17 in the last 57 meetings, including 22-8 in their last 30 in Miami.  Ervin Santana has been brilliant since moving to the NL.  The Braves are 4-0 in his starts, and he's compiled an ERA of only 1.95.  This number is down to 1.38 in a pair of road starts.  His clubs are 11-1 the last two season in his starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Henderson Alvarez has pitched well for the Marlins, but they've lost four of his five starts while he's posted an ERA (2.73) that's nearly a run higher than Santana's.  His clubs are 1-11 over the last three seasons in his home starts versus division opponents.  The Marlins are 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus the NL East and 1-8 in his last 9 starts versus winning clubs.  Take Atlanta.

6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Astros/Nationals Under 8.5

The Key: Zimmermann has been really good in four of five starts this season and has a 2.70 ERA over his last three.  He's given up only one run on seven hits in his last two starts versus Houston spanning 13 innings while striking out 14 and walking none.  Oberholtzer will be focused following a rare bad outing.  Prior to his last start, he had posted an ERA of 2.87 over his previous eight starts.  He has received an average of only 1.78 runs of support over his last nine starts.  I expect Oberholtzer to have success against a Washington club that has never faced him.  The "Under" is 3-0-1 in the Nationals' last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games following a win, 3-0-1 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-0-1 in their last 7 interleague road games versus a team with a losing record.  The "Under" is 4-0 in Oberholtzer's last 4 starts on 5 days of rest and 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The "Under" is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these clubs.  Take the Under.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Royals -137

The Key: The Royals will be happy to take the field at home, where they are 6-3, following a seven-game road trip.  They are 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days.  They Royals are also 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Vargas has been terrific (1.54 ERA through 5 starts), especially at home where he's 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA.  Toronto's McGowan has a 6.88 ERA through four starts.  The Blue Jays are 1-5 in McGowan's last six starts, 9-23 in his last 32 road starts and 5-14 in his last 19 starts as an underdog.  The Jays are 12-30 all-time in his night starts.  You want to fade road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 to 4.50 if they are batting .265 or worse as a team and are facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or lower.  Doing so has produced a 125-39 mark the last five seasons.  Take Kansas City.

6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Giants -158

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Padres, who are playing their eighth straight on the road after making the long cross-country trip from Washington D.C.  The Giants will be the more energized team as they've been able to rest their heads on their own pillows since returning from Colorado April 23.  The Giants bring momentum into this series following a three-game sweep of Cleveland.  And, they'll be hungry after losing the season's first series with San Diego.  The Padres defeated Washington 4-2 yesterday, but they are 3-17 in road games following a win of 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  San Diego's Tyson Ross hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he's 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts this season.  His clubs are 0-2 in his two starts in San Francisco.  The Padres are 4-10 in Ross' last 14 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven on the road.  Madison Bumgarner is always tough against the division, as evidenced by the Giants' 37-18 record in his last 55 starts versus the NL West.  The Giants are 5-0 in his last five starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 16-4 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Most importantly, the Giants are 7-0 in Bumgarner's last seven home starts versus the Padres. With Ross never winning in San Francisco, and Bumgarner having not lost there versus the Padres since 2009, we have a 100% perfect 9-0 angle in our favor. Take San Francisco.

6* Sunday Night Baseball "Total" Annihilator on Angels/Yankees Under 8.0

The Key: I like the "Under" tonight in a matchup of pitchers in good form.  LAs Garrett Richards has a 2.52 ERA through four starts, and this number shrinks to 1.00 in a pair of road starts.  He held the Yankees to just two runs in his most recent start in Yankee Stadium last August.  The Yanks are averaging just 3.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season and have hit only 10 home runs against righty starters.  They don't figure to take Richards deep as he hasn't given up a homer in his last five starts.  The "Under" is 8-2 in Richards' last 10 road starts and 7-0 in his last seven road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  NYs Masahiro Tanaka has had his way with the opposition through his first four major-league starts.  He has a 2.15 ERA on the season and a 1.81 ERA in a pair of home starts.  He has 35 Ks and only two walks, and I expect to see another big strikeout number tonight against an Angels' club that averages over 8 Ks per game.  Tanaka has nasty stuff, and even good hitting teams will struggle against him until they become more familiar with him.  Take the Under.