Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-14 | Kansas City Royals +149 v. San Francisco Giants | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Royals +149 The Key: The Royals are showing value at this price with Shields on the mound. He's been at his best on the road where he has a 3.13 ERA. He was hit hard in a Game 1 loss but now has the opportunity to make the necessary adjustments. The Royals are 8-0 this season in Shields' road starts versus clubs with a winning record. They are 10-0 this season in his road starts versus impatient clubs that draw an average of three walks or less per game. They are also 9-0 this season in his road starts versus teams that strand 6.9 or less baserunners per game. Bumgarner hasn't been the same dominant force at home where he has a 3.88 ERA and where the Giants are 8-9 in his starts this season. The Giants are just 6-13 in Bumgarner's last 19 home starts when the total is set at 6.5 or lower. The Royals are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss and 5-0 in their last five after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Royals are also 7-2 in their last nine against the Giants. |
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10-25-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants -124 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on Giants -124 The Key: I'm not hesitating to get behind the proven track record of Vogelsong in this one. The Giants are 6-0 in his six career playoff starts, during which he's posted a 2.16 ERA. Omar Infante is the only KC regular with experience against Vogelsong and that bodes well for the Giants. While Vogelsong has been here and done this, this is the biggest game Vargas has ever pitched, and I expect him to give in to the pressure. The Giants just saw Vargas in August so they will have a much better understanding of his stuff. Vargas has had nine days between starts and typically hasn't performed well with extra rest, going 5-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 26 career starts with six or more days rest. The Royals are 2-5 in Vargas' last seven road starts. The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus a left-handed starter. Take San Francisco. |
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10-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants -120 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Giants -120 The Key: I like the Giants to bounce back at home where they are 4-0 in their last four playoff games and 6-0 in their last six World Series games. Guthrie has pitched well over his last four starts, but he has a 6.14 ERA in three career starts against the Giants. Plus, I trust the more accomplished Hudson a lot more in this big spot. Hudson has finished in the Top 6 in the Cy Young voting four times in his career and has a strong 3.42 ERA in 12 career postseason appearances. Taking Hudson at home has been a fantastic investment. His clubs are 19-5 in his home starts the last two seasons. Take San Francisco. |
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10-22-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -108 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Royals -108 The Key: I like the Royals to bounce back in Game 2 behind a gem from Ventura. He's never started against the Giants, and that's to his advantage because they won't be familiar with his stuff. They'll have trouble catching up to his 100 mph heat. Ventura has a 3.27 ERA in home starts this season. The Royals are 5-0 in his last five starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus winning clubs. They are also 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that strand 6.9 or less baserunners per game. Peavy has struggled on the road where he has a 4.37 ERA this season. He's especially struggled at Kauffman where he has a 6.42 ERA in seven career starts. His clubs are 0-5 in his last five starts in Kansas City. Take the Royals. |
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10-21-14 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Kansas City Royals | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Giants -103 The Key: The Giants have far more postseason experience than the Royals and have proven themselves this time of year. They are 6-0 in their last six World Series games and 4-0 in their last four World Series road games. They are also 4-0 in their last four series openers. Bumgarner has been unbelievable on the road where he has a 1.96 ERA. Being a lefty, he should also be able to keep Kansas City from running wild. Shields has a 3.64 home ERA on the season and hasn't looked good in these playoffs, posting a 5.62 ERA. The Giants are 17-5 in Bumgarners last 22 road starts. They are also 8-1 this season in his road starts versus teams that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. They are 9-1 this season in his road starts when the money line is +100 to -150. Bumgarner has an ERA of 0.00 in two World Series starts while giving up only five hits in 15 innings of work. Take the Giants. |
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10-16-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
6* NLCS "Total" Annihilator on Cardinals/Giants Under 6.0 The Key: The Cardinals won't go down without a fight. A lot has been made of Wainwright's arm troubles, but he is one of the best competitors in baseball, and I expect him to be on tonight. Wainwright has been at his best on the where he has a 2.07 ERA. The under is 8-3-1 in his last 12 starts following a team loss the previous game and 5-1 in his last six starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 4-0 in the Giants' last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. Bumgarner is dialed in with a 0.76 ERA this postseason. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 7-1 in his last 8 starts on regular rest (4 days). The under is 8-2 in the Cardinals' last 10 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. The Giants bullpen has been getting plenty of work, but that likely changes here as Bumgarner has been going deep. Regardless the SF pen has been fantastic all season and has shown that it can perform well when not fully rested. The Giants are 8-0 under this season with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings over the last 3 games. We have seen only 3.6 total runs scored on average in this spot. Take the under. |
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10-15-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -102 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
7* NLCS Game of the Year on Cardinals -102 The Key: I fully expect the Cardinals to even the series. They are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, and they have the edge on the mound with Miller, who has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts. The line has moved to the point where the Cardinals are now favored at some books so it is worth noting that they are 6-1 in Miller's last seven starts as a road favorite. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 1-6 in Vogelsong's last seven starts as a home underdog. Vogelsong has given up four runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Giants are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Cardinals. Miller is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. The Cardinals saw Vogelsong twice this season while the Giants haven't seen Miller since June 1, 2013. That also bodes well for the Cards. St. Louis is 16-6 this season when seeking revenge for a one run loss to an opponent. Take the Cards. |
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10-14-14 | Baltimore Orioles -112 v. Kansas City Royals | 1-2 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Orioles -112 The Key: I think last night's rainout works in Baltimore's favor. The Royals have been red-hot, and when a team is that hot the last thing it wants is extended time off. The Orioles will be ready. This is basically a must-win game for them knowing how difficult it would be to win four straight. I like them to come through here behind a nice outing from Chen, who has a 3.33 ERA on the road this season. He was lights out versus the Royals this season. Baltimore went 2-0 in his starts against them while he gave up just three runs in 12 1-3 innings. The Orioles are 6-0 in Chen's last six starts as a favorite. Guthrie has an ERA of 4.16 at home on the season, and Kansas City went 0-2 in his starts versus the Orioles, during which he gave up six runs in 15 innings. The Royals are 1-4 in his last five starts as a home underdog. Baltimore is 20-8 this season when playing with double revenge and 15-5 this season when out for revenge for an upset loss at home. Take Baltimore. |
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10-12-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Cardinals -130 The Key: The Cardinals are a resilient team with a never-say-die attitude, and I fully expect them to bounce back strong in Game 2. Lynn has been consistently good at home where he has a 2.50 ERA in 18 starts this season. Peavy has been suspect on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA in 17 starts. The Cards are 12-2 this season in Lynn's home starts when the money line is +100 to -150. In addition, you want to fade underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 when they are up against an NL starter that has an ERA of 3.00 or less if they have a team batting average of .255 or worse and are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last three starts. Doing so has produced a 57-15 mark the last five seasons. Take St. Louis. |
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10-11-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -120 | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
6* NLCS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -120 The Key: Bumgarner doesn't have a good track record versus St. Louis. He has an ERA of 4.78 in eight career starts against the Cardinals and has allowed five runs or more in three of his last four starts against them. The Giants are 1-5 in his last six starts versus St. Louis. Wainwright has an ERA of 2.86 in 11 starts against the Giants and has held them to two runs or less in five of his last six starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in those starts. It is also worth noting that Wainwright has a 1.59 ERA in five NLCS appearances while Bumgarner has a 7.84 ERA in three NLCS appearance. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wainwright's last six starts and 10-0 in his Saturday starts over the last two seasons. The Redbirds are 8-0 in their last eight home games versus southpaw starters and 4-0 in their last four home games versus teams with a winning road record. Take St. Louis. |
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10-10-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
6* ALCS "Total" Annihilator on Royals/Orioles Under 7.0 The Key: The under gets the call in Game 1 of the ALCS with Shields and Tillman getting the ball. Shields has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.97 ERA. Tillman has posted a 2.59 ERA at home. In addition, both teams have excellent bullpens. The Royals are on a 37-17-5 unders run as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are on a 4-0 unders run in Shield's last four starts as a road underdog. The Orioles are 7-1-1 under in their last nine as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 22-10-2 in Tillman's last 34 starts as a favorite. The under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams, including 6-1 in the last seven in Baltimore. Take the under. |
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10-07-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -170 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -170 The Key: Kershaw will be looking for redemption when he takes the mound today after not being able to hold a 6-1 lead in Game 1. My money's on the best pitcher in baseball here. The southpaw sensation will be working on three days' rest but is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in three career starts on three days' rest. The Dodgers are 10-0 in Kershaw's last 10 road starts and 6-0 in his last six road starts versus winning clubs. They are 13-0 in the second half of the season the last three seasons in his road starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse and has won these games by an average score of 6.0 to 1.7. Miller is making his first career postseason start for the Cardinals after posted a 6.23 ERA in three previous postseason appearances spanning 4 1-3 innings. I expect this moment to be a little too big for him. The Dodgers aren't a big power team, but the Cardinals are 0-7 this season in Miller's home starts versus teams that average 0.9 home runs per game or less and have lost these games by an average score of 5.7 to 1.9. Take LA. |
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10-06-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals -102 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -102 The Key: I like the Cardinals with Lackey on the mound. In 19 postseason appearances he has a 3.03 ERA. Lackey thrives this time of year because few pitchers are as competitive and have as much self-belief. The Cardinals are 5-0 in his home starts, during which he's posted a 2.38 ERA. Ryu hasn’t started since Sept. 12 due to shoulder irritation, and I expect him to show a little rust as a result. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six home games versus a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last four playoff road games and 18-40 in the last 58 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cardinals. |
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10-05-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Detroit Tigers -174 | 2-1 | Loss | -174 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
6* ALDS *CA$H COW* on Tigers -174 The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Price, who has a 3.54 ERA at home and a 2.93 ERA in day starts. Norris has a 4.80 ERA on the road and a 5.13 ERA in day starts. Fading Norris when he gets the ball against the Tigers has never lost. His clubs are 0-4 in his four career starts against them, and he has an ERA of 6.57 in these starts. Price is 7-3 with an ERA of 2.82 in 17 career starts versus the Orioles. In addition, the Tigers have won 10 of 14 at home, six of their last seven home games versus winning teams and six of their last eight Divisional Playoffs home games. Take Detroit. |
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10-04-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers -161 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -161 The Key: Greinke at home has been one of the best bets in baseball for several years now. The Dodgers are 24-6 in Greinke's last 30 home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts overall. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Lynn's last four starts. In addition, Greinke's clubs are 52-14 all-time in his home starts versus teams like the Cardinals that average 2.75 extra base hits or less per game. His clubs are 30-7 the last three seasons in his starts as a favorite of -150 or more. Greinke has a 2.55 ERA at home this season and a 2.34 ERA in his last eight outings. He posted a 2.57 ERA with a .189 opponents' batting average in 21 innings over three starts in last season's playoffs. Two of those starts came against the Cards. Lynn has a 4.81 ERA in 21 postseason appearances and a 5.56 ERA in five postseason starts. He has a 9.00 ERA versus the Dodgers this season. Lastly, Greinke's clubs are 7-0 in his last seven home starts versus St. Louis. |
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10-03-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -146 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -146 The Key: I like the Angels to even up the series behind Shoemaker. They are 17-4 all-time in his starts, including 7-0 in his last seven. Shoemaker has held the opposition to three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and has held it to one run or none in five of his last six. Ventura was roughed up his final start of the regular season and then struggled in Tuesday's wild-card game, giving up a two-run homer and recording only one out on 13 pitches. I think he catches the Angels at a bad time too. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick and Josh Hamilton combined to go 0 for 18 last night, and they'll be very focused here as a result. Take LA. |
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10-02-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -173 | 3-2 | Loss | -173 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
6* ALDS *CA$H COW* on Angels -173 The Key: The Angels are worth the price tonight with Weaver on the mound. He's been outstanding at home where he has a 2.68 ERA, and the Halos are 4-0 in his last four home starts. He's owned the Royals with an ERA of 2.21 in 12 career starts against them. The Angels are 6-0 in his last six starts against them, a stretch where he's allowed just four runs in 41 1-3 innings of work. Kansas City didn't get a look at Weaver this season, and that should be to his advantage. The Angels saw Vargas twice this season and rocked him for six runs in four innings the last time they faced him. Vargas is in poor current form with an ERA of 9.95 over his last three starts. The Royals are 0-4 in his last four starts overall and 0-3 in his last three on the road. The Royals are also 0-4 in Vargas' last four starts versus teams with a winning record. The Angels are 4-0 in their last four playoff games as a favorite. Take LA. |
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10-01-14 | San Francisco Giants -107 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
6* NL Wild *CA$H COW* on Giants -107 The Key: The Giants thrive this time of year, and they have the edge on the mound with Bumgarner. San Francisco is 21-8 in its last 29 postseason games, including 8-2 in its last 10 on the road. It couldn't ask for a better guy to give the ball to. Its ace southpaw has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.22 ERA in 18 starts. The Giants are 5-0 in Bumgarner's last five starts as a favorite and 7-0 in his last seven starts as a road favorite. They are on an 11-0 run in his road starts versus NL clubs that average 4.3 runs per game or less, and they are on an 11-0 streak in his road starts versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .325 or lower. They've won these contests by an average of 4.2 runs. Bumgarner has a strong 3.24 against the Pirates and a solid 3.79 ERA in his postseason career. He's been at his best in the playoffs when facing the most pressure, as evidenced by his 0.00 ERA in two World Series starts. This do-or-die game has immense pressure, and I believe Bumgarner will handle it better than Volquez, who has a 5.72 ERA against the Giants and an ERA of 21.60 in one postseason start. His clubs are 1-8 in his last nine starts versus the Giants, including 0-3 at home. Take San Francisco. |
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09-30-14 | Oakland A's -105 v. Kansas City Royals | 8-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
6* AL Wild Card *CA$H COW* on A's -105 The Key: I like the experience of the A's and Lester in this spot. The A's are making their third straight postseason trip while the Royals are in the postseason for the first time in 29 years. Shields has the nickname Big Game James, but he hasn't pitched in the postseason since 2011 when he posted a 12.60 ERA. He had an 8.31 ERA in the 2010 playoffs. Lester shined in the postseason just last year, posting a 2.35 ERA in the ALDS, a 2.31 ERA in the ALCS and a 0.59 ERA in the World Series. His clubs are 16-6 in his last 22 starts overall. And, he's owned the Royals. Lester is 3-0 against Kansas City this season and 9-3 all-time with a 1.84 ERA in 13 starts. Shields had a losing record at home this season behind a 3.51 ERA. The Royals are 3-7 in his last 10 home starts and 3-8 this season in his home night starts. He has a 3.82 ERA in 15 career starts against the A's, and his clubs are just 4-5 in his last nine starts against them. The Royals are 1-6 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record. Take Oakland. |
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09-27-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-113) The Key: The White Sox watched Kansas City celebrate a playoff berth on their field last night and that should get their competitive juices. Plus, the White Sox are honoring Paul Konerko, and they would love nothing more than to win on the day they retire his No. 14 jersey. Chicago is also in good hands with Danks, who is 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 15 career starts against Kansas City. Escobar (0 for 15), Cain (0 for 8), Moustakas (1 for 13), Gordon (5 for 32), Perez (2 for 11), Butler (7 for 35) and Infante (4 for 19) have all struggled against him. Duffy has pitched great for the Royals, but they haven't supported him well and the chances of them doing so here aren't good considering the success Danks has had against them. According to this run line, the Royals are just 1-5 against the run line in Duffy's last six starts. They are 4-12 against the run line in his last 16 according to this run line. According to this run line, the Sox are 15-0 against the run line all-time in Danks' starts versus the Royals. |
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09-26-14 | New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox -105 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Red Sox -105 The Key: This is a bad spot for the Yankees, who all celebrated Jeter's heroics in his last home game. Even though Boston is their biggest rival, their focus will be lacking in the aftermath of last night's thrilling victory. The Red Sox have scored 22 runs over their last two games and should be able to keep it going against Capuano, who has been hit hard the last couple months. In three career starts versus Boston, he's 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA. The Yankees aren't familiar with Wright and that plays to his advantage. The Yankees are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Boston is 14-1 in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 6.7 to 2.7. Take Boston. |
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09-25-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130) The Key: I'll lay runs with Detroit given the edge it has on the mound with Scherzer, who has a 2.66 home ERA this season. Minnesota's May has posted an 8.66 mark on the road. The Tigers are 14-0 the last three seasons in his Thursday starts. They are 12-0 the last two seasons in his starts in the second half of the season versus teams averaging 0.9 home runs or less per game. The Tigers are 41-10 in Scherzer's last 51 home starts and 14-2 in his last 16 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. They are 11-1 in his last 12 starts versus the Twins, including 6-0 in his last six. These six wins have come by an average of 4.0 runs. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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09-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -101 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -101 The Key: The Indians have lost the first two games of this series, but they are a perfect 8-0 the last three seasons off two straight upset defeats at home to division opponents. They have won these games by an average score of 5.6 to 2.4. Kansas City's Vargas is really struggling, going 0-3 with a 9.01 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland's Bauer has a 3.79 ERA over his last three starts and a 2.45 ERA in a pair of starts against the Royals this season. Vargas has a 4.12 ERA in three starts against Cleveland this season. The Indians are 8-1 in their last nine Game 3s of a series, 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home underdog, 25-8 in their last 33 home games versus a left-handed starter and 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts as a home underdog. Take Cleveland. |
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09-23-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130) The Key: Off back-to-back losses and clinging to a slim one-game lead in the Central, expect the Tigers to take care of business tonight. Chicago's Scott Carroll has a 5.90 ERA in all starts this season and a 6.85 ERA in night starts. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four road starts, losing these by an average of 3.8 runs. Detroit's David Price has an ERA of 3.41 on the season. He's been inconsistent of late and was roughed up last time out, but the southpaw rarely makes two bad starts outings in a row. Six of the last seven times he's allowed five earned runs or more, he's bounced back to hold the opposition to three earned runs or less in his next start. Price's clubs are 4-1 in his last five starts versus the White Sox with each of these four victories coming by at least two runs. The Tigers hammered Carroll in his lone start against them, tallying seven runs off him in five innings. Detroit is 21-6 on the run line the last two seasons off an upset loss to a division opponent as a favorite of -150 or higher. The Tigers have won these games by an average score of 5.8 to 3.0. Take Detroit on the run line. |
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09-22-14 | Colorado Rockies v. San Diego Padres -113 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Padres -113 The Key: The Padres are showing value at this price at home against a Colorado club that is 10-44 in its last 44 road games, including 0-7 in its last seven. The Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 in San Diego and 2-8 in Matzek's road starts this season. The Padres are an impressive 22-6 in their last 28 home games. Plus, Stults' clubs are 3-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Rockies. He has held them to three earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts against them and nine of 11 starts all-time. Matzek has been rocked in two of three starts versus San Diego, including his lone start in San Diego. Take the Padres. |
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09-21-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals +100 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Royals +100 The Key: After dropping the first two games of this series and falling 2.5 games back in the AL Central race, I expect the Royals to dig down deep. Detroit's Porcello hasn't been quite as sharp of late with a 4.58 ERA over his last three starts. The Tigers are 0-4 in his last four starts, 1-5 in his last six road starts and 1-7 in his last eight starts on regular rest (4 days). It is also worth noting that the Tigers are just 2-10 in his starts the last two seasons versus good teams that carry a win percentage of 54-62%. Guthrie has been lights out at home of late, giving up just one earned run in his last two starts spanning 15 innings. The Royals are 26-12 in his last 38 home starts and 7-1 in his last eight starts in the third game of a series. He's been rocked in his last two starts against the Tigers and will be extremely focused as a result. The Royals are 4-1 in Guthrie's last five home starts versus the Tigers. Take Kansas City. |
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09-20-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 121 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -1.5 (+121) The Key: Look for Baltimore to bounce back strong from yesterday's loss behind Tillman. The Orioles are 10-0 in his last 10 starts and have won these by an average of 3.3 runs. Baltimore is also a perfect 8-0 this season when giving the ball to Tillman following a defeat, and it has won by an average score of 5.1 to 2.6 in this spot. The Red Sox are 0-3 in De La Rosa's last three starts, during which he's posted a 7.43 ERA. These losses came by an average of 3.0 runs. Tillman has an ERA of 2.70 in 15 career starts versus Boston. David Ortiz is 2 for 24 lifetime against Tillman, Will Middlebrooks is 0 for 18 and Xander Bogaerts is 2 for 11. Bet Baltimore on the run line. |
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09-19-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -139 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Yankees -139 The Key: The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last five games, and I expect their struggles to continue this evening. Buehrle hasn't been able to figure out the Yankees, going 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA in 20 career starts against them. His clubs are 2-18 in those starts, including 0-10 in the last 10 at Yankee Stadium. New York's Brian McCann (10 for 24), Brett Gardner (12 for 29), Ichiro Suzuki (26 for 61) and Stephen Drew (7 for 16) have hit Buehrle hard. So has Jeter, who is hitting .347 with two homers in 49 career at-bats in the matchup. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Buehrle's last four road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 4-0 in their last four home games versus a left-handed starter. Kuroda has been rock solid down the stretch with a 2.92 ERA over his last six starts. He also has a 3.34 ERA in his last nine starts versus the Blue Jays. He's 4-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Jays. It's also worth noting that the Yankees are 4-0 in the last four meetings when Kuroda faces off against Buehrle. Take the Yankees. |
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09-18-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -136 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cardinals -136 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Shelby Miller. The Cards are 3-0 in his last three starts, during which he's posted a 0.45 ERA. The Cardinals are also 7-0 all-time in his starts versus the Brewers, and he's posted a 2.30 ERA in these starts. Lohse has struggled of late with a 7.71 ERA over his last three starts, and he's struggled against his former club, posting a 6.63 ERA in seven starts against the Cards since joining the Brewers. He's 0-2 in his last two starts versus St. Louis while giving up 14 runs in eight innings. The Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 road games and 21-44 in their last 65 versus the Cardinals. The Cardinals are 82-35 in their last 117 home games versus a right-handed starter. Take St. Louis. |
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09-17-14 | Philadelphia Phillies -130 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* Game of the Week on Phillies -130 The Key: The Phillies are showing value at this price with Hamels on the hill. The southpaw has been nothing short of dominant, giving up three runs or fewer in his last 20 starts. He has a 2.51 ERA on the season and a 1.80 ERA on the road. Hamels, who grew up in San Diego, has enjoyed pitching against the Padres. He has a 2.21 ERA in 15 career starts against them and a 1.85 mark in seven starts at Petco. The Phillies are 7-0 in Hamels' last seven starts versus the Padres and 5-0 in his last five road starts against them. Stults has a 4.49 ERA on the season and a 4.13 ERA at home. To make matters worse, his 3.07 run-support average is among the lowest in baseball. The Padres are 0-2 in Stults' last two home starts and 0-2 in his last two starts against the Phillies. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and the Padres are 0-5 in their last five Game 3's of a series. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-16-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -143 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -143 The Key: The Brewers are 0-8 in their last eight road games and 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog. Look for their road struggles to continue here. The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight home games, 4-0 in their last four series openers and 6-0 in their last six games versus starters with a WHIP greater than 1.300. Peralta has a 1.345 WHIP on the season, a 1.449 WHIP on the road and a 1.787 WHIP over his last three starts. Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday are both 8 for 18 against the right-hander. Lynn has posted a 1.85 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.48 ERA over his last five starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee's Aramis Ramirez (2 for 21), Carlos Gomez (3 for 17 with nine strikeouts) and Khris Davis (1 for 12) have struggled against Lynn. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Lynn's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus teams with a winning record. Take St. Louis. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. San Diego Padres -155 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Padres -155 The Key: The Padres are 21-8 in their last 29 home games, including 10-2 in their last 12 as a home favorite. They are also an extraordinary 60-20 in their last 80 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Padres were swept in a three-game series in Philadelphia earlier this season, but they are 15-5 the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a three-game sweep. Cashner is without a doubt the superior starter in this matchup with a 2.40 ERA on the season and a 1.54 mark at home. Williams has a 4.82 ERA on the season and a 7.84 mark on the road. The Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 road games versus teams with a losing record and 1-5 in their last six games as an underdog. Take San Diego. |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Pirates -1.5 (+110) The Key: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last five games versus right-handed starters, losing these games by an average of 6.0 runs, and they appear to be up against it with the righty they'll see today. Pittsburgh's Volquez is in top form with a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts. The Pirates are 4-0 in Volquez's last four home starts versus losing teams, and his clubs are 9-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season the last three seasons versus NL teams with a batting average of .250 or lower. His clubs have won these nine by 2.0 runs on average. Volquez has never lost to the Cubs, and his clubs are 9-0 lifetime in his starts against them, during which he's posted a 3.24 ERA. These nine wins have come by an average of 4.2 runs. Chicago's Turner has a massive 5.84 ERA in all appearance this season. Take Pittsburgh on the run line. |
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09-13-14 | Miami Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies -131 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Phillies -131 The Key: The Phillies have the edge on the mound with Kendrick, who has had Miami's number. He's 11-3 with a 3.56 ERA in 19 career starts versus the Marlins, and the Phillies are 8-0 in his last eight home starts versus the Fish. It is also worth noting that the Phillies are 4-0 in his last four home starts versus losing clubs. Miami's Hand has a 4.71 road ERA on the season and a 4.41 ERA in three career starts versus the Phillies. That number would likely be higher had those three starts not come at home. Starting in Philly for the first time, I expect Hand to struggle. The Marlins are 6-15 in his last 21 starts, 3-8 in his last 11 road starts and 2-12 in his last 14 division starts. The Marlins are 10-29 in the last 39 meetings in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies. |
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09-12-14 | Colorado Rockies v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 107 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Cardinals -1.5 +107 The Key: Off three straight losses in Cincinnati, the Cardinals will be all business when they take the field against a Colorado club that has dropped 41 of 51 on the road. While De La Rosa has been strong at home, he has a 5.29 road ERA, and the Rockies are 0-6 in his last six road starts. These defeats have come by an average of 4.0 runs. The Cardinals are 3-0 in Wainwright's last three home starts, winning these by an average of 2.0 runs. And, he's completely dominated the Rockies. Wainwright has a 1.63 ERA in seven career starts against them and is 4-0 in his last four starts. These wins came by an average of 2.5 runs. De La Rosa has a 4.56 ERA in nine career starts versus the Cardinals. Take St. Louis on the run line. |
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09-11-14 | Miami Marlins v. Milwaukee Brewers -145 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Brewers -145 The Key: The Brewers have the edge on the mound with Fiers, who has a 1.94 ERA on the season and a 1.88 ERA at home. The Brewers are 4-0 in Fiers' home starts this season and 4-0 in his starts as a favorite. Eovaldi has a 4.29 ERA on the season and a 5.51 ERA over his last three starts. The Marlins are 0-5 in Eovaldi's last five starts. He's also 0-4 lifetime with a 4.91 ERA in 4 starts versus Milwaukee. The Marlins have dropped 15 of their last 20 at Miller Park. Take the Brewers. |
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09-10-14 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -150 The Key: Look for the Dodgers to bounce back from yesterday's loss against a San Diego club they have defeated in nine of the last 12 meetings at Chavez Ravine. San Diego earned the upset victory yesterday, but it is 1-12 this season following an upset win over a division rival. LA's Dan Haren is in top form with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. San Diego's Ian Kennedy, on the other hand, has a 4.23 ERA over his last three starts, and the Padres are 0-4 in his last four road starts versus teams that have a winning record. Every other time the Dodgers see Kennedy, they hit him hard. He's given up at least 5 runs against them every other time he's faced them over the last two seasons. Haren has been solid against San Diego this season, limiting the Padres to just eight earned runs in 21 1-3 innings of work. Take the Dodgers. |
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09-09-14 | Los Angeles Angels -134 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -134 The Key: The Angels are 9-1 in their last 10 versus Texas, and I expect them to continue their dominance over their division rivals tonight. Texas' Colby Lewis has a 7.17 home ERA on the season and a 5.36 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Angels. He's given up 18 runs in his last two starts against them. He's allowed an average of 7.44 hits per start on the season, and that bodes well for us. LA is 11-0 this season versus starting pitchers who give up an average of seven hits per start or more. It has won these games by an average score of 6.5 to 3.7. LA's Hector Santiago has quietly been dealing. He's allowed one earned run or none in four of his last five starts. Take the Halos. |
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09-08-14 | Colorado Rockies v. New York Mets -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -145 The Key: The Mets are showing a ton of value at home at this price against a Colorado club that is 11-40 in its last 51 road games. Look for Colorado's road struggles to continue against Niese, who has posted a rock solid 3.12 ERA at home this season. The Mets are 7-0 in his last seven starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus losing teams. The Mets are also 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Lyles has struggled of late with a 6.00 ERA over his last three starts, and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Take New York. |
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09-07-14 | Houston Astros v. Oakland A's -150 | 4-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Oakland A's -150 The Key: This is a big game for Oakland because it has lost its last two series. The odds are certainly in its favor considering it is 110-54 in its last 164 games versus losing clubs. The Astros are a dismal 55-143 in their last 198 games versus teams that have a winning record. The A's have dominated the series, going 31-12 in the last 43 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 home meetings. Houston has won each of Keuchel's starts versus Oakland this season, but all three were at home. He was rocked for five earned in 3 1-3 innings in his lone starts in Oakland. Hammel has a 2.51 home ERA on the season and has allowed two earned runs or less in five of six career starts versus the Astros. Take Oakland. |
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09-06-14 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -134 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Rockies -134 The Key: While it's been a terrible season for the Rockies, they are two games over .500 at home and are in good hands here. No one pitches better at Coors Field than Jorge De La Rosa, who has a 3.19 ERA there on the season. The Rockies are 46-9 in De La Rosa's last 55 home starts, including 6-0 in his last six. The Padres are batting just .212 and averaging only 2.9 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. The Rockies are 12-1 in De La Rosa's last 13 starts against them, including 8-0 at home. Joe Wieland is making his first big-league start since 2012, and I expect rust. The Padres are 0-5 in his five career starts. Take Colorado. |
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09-05-14 | New York Mets v. Cincinnati Reds -113 | Top | 14-5 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
7* NL Game of the Week on Reds -113 The Key: Cincinnati is a strong value at this price with Simon on the hill. The right-hander has a 3.11 home ERA on the season and has been a nightmare for soft hitting NL clubs like the Mets. The Mets are batting a measly .236 as a team, and that spells bad news for them here. Consider that Cincy is 13-0 this season in Simon's starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .250 or worse. The Reds have won these games by an average score of 4.2 to 1.8. Colon has a 4.48 road ERA, and that's not going to cut it. Take Cincinnati. |
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09-04-14 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -142 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Yankees -142 The Key: I'm fading Boston with Workman on the mound. The Red Sox are 0-8 in his last eight starts, and he has a 6.52 ERA over his last seven. The Yankees are 2-0 in Capuano's last two starts, and he was solid in each. Capuano has been at his best at home where he has a 3.37 ERA in four starts. It is also worth noting that the Red Sox are 3-11 in their last 14 road games versus a left-handed starter. This is a huge homestand for the Yankees, who trail Detroit by four games for the AL's second wild card slot. Take New York. |
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09-03-14 | Los Angeles Angels -138 v. Houston Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Angels -138 The Key: The Angels saw their six-game win streak come to an end yesterday, but I expect them to bounce back strong behind ace Jered Weaver. The Halos are 4-0 in his last four starts, 5-0 in his last five division starts and 5-0 in his last five road starts versus teams that have a losing record. The Astros are 0-5 in McHugh's last five starts when he gets the ball on five days of rest. The Angels are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll take the better team with the more proven starter on the mound. |
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09-02-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Baltimore Orioles -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -130 The Key: The Reds had yesterday off but are 0-5 in their last five games following a day off. They are also 0-5 in their last five versus AL East clubs and 1-12 in their last 13 series openers. The Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 series openers. They are also 6-0 in their last six Tuesday games and 4-0 in their last four interleague home games versus losing clubs. Baltimore is 5-0 in Norris' last five series-opening starts, 5-0 in his last five home starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite. The Reds are 3-7 in Latos' last 10 road starts. Take Baltimore. |
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09-01-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -135 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
7* MLB Labor Day *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -135 The Key: Expect to see a hungry Oakland club after being swept in LA. They now trail the Angels by five games so they know they need to take care of business in their next six home games. The Athletics are 37-14 in their last 51 home games, 20-6 in their last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 72-34 in their last 106 games as a favorite and 94-46 in their last 140 home games versus a right-handed starter. The A's have seen Chris Young three times this season, winning two of the meetings. Seattle hasn't seen Jason Hammel since very early last season, and that gives him a nice advantage. Take Oakland. |
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08-31-14 | Cincinnati Reds +124 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 3-2 | Win | 124 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB Underdog Game of the Month on Reds +124 The Key: The Reds are showing excellent value at this price with Cueto on the hill. He has a 2.65 road ERA on the season and has owned Pittsburgh throughout his career. He's 16-5 (18-8 on the money line) with a 2.38 ERA in 26 starts against the Pirates. The Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts versus Pittsburgh. Liriano has a 4.78 home ERA on the season, and the Pirates are 0-5 in his last five starts. They are 0-4 in his last four starts as a favorite and 0-4 in his last four starts following a quality start in his last appearance. He's struggled against the Reds this season, and the Pirates are just 2-6 all-time in his starts against them. Take the Reds. |
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08-30-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Royals -145 The Key: Kansas City has the edge on the mound with Shields, who has a 3.45 ERA on the season. The Royals are 25-8 the last 33 times Shields has gotten the ball on regular rest (4 days). Also, Shields' clubs are 3-0 in his last three and 6-1 in his last seven starts versus Cleveland. He's held the Indians to just four earned runs in 20 innings during a three-start win streak. Cleveland's Bauer has been terrible on the road where he has a 6.19 ERA. The Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 home games versus the Indians. Take KC. |
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08-29-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -137 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Diamondbacks -137 The Key: The Rockies are a dead fade at this price considering how terrible they've been on the road. They are 4-26 in their last 30 road games and are clearly not the same team without shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer and catcher Wilin Rosario. Those players finished Nos. 1-4 last season on the team in RBIs, combining for 315 with 92 home runs. It is also worth noting that Colorado is a dismal 5-22 in its last 27 series openers. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last five games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and they are in good hands with Collmenter, who has a 2.85 ERA at home. He's shown excellent command lately, and that's a great sign. Consider that Arizona is 7-0 the last three seasons in Collmenter's starts if he has walked one batter or none in each of his last two outings. Colorado's Bergman has a 6.75 ERA. The Rockies are 1-6 in the last seven meetings and 18-40 in the last 58 meetings in Arizona. Take Arizona. |
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08-28-14 | Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Rangers/Astros UNDER 8 (-113) The Key: Look for this one to come in under the number as McHugh and Tepesch keep dealing. McHugh has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts. Tepesch has given up three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Texas will be seeing McHugh for the first time and should struggle as a result. Tepesch has given up just two runs in two starts in Houston spanning 11 2-3 innings. The under is 4-0 in the Rangers' last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150, 4-0-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows five runs or more in its previous game, 7-0-1 in their last eight games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game and 3-0-1 in their last four games following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in Tepesch's last five starts and 6-0 in his last six division starts. Take the Under. |
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08-27-14 | Washington Nationals -156 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -156 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
7* NL East Game of the Year on Nationals -156 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the Nationals to jump all over Philly early in this one. Philadelphia's Kendrick owns an NL-worst 6.10 ERA since June 22 and has a 9.69 ERA in the first inning. He has a 5.15 ERA in 23 career starts versus Washington, including an 8.02 ERA in his last four starts in the series. Fister has been unbelievable with a 2.38 ERA on the season. He also has a 1.64 ERA in three career starts versus Philadelphia. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Fister's last 4 road starts and 4-0 in his last four starts in the third game of a series. The Phillies are 0-5 in Kendrick's last 5 Wednesday starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Nationals. Take Washington. |
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08-26-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
6* Run Line Rout on Royals -1.5 (+125) The Key: After losing consecutive games for the first time since July 27 and 29, I expect the Royals to bounce back strong. Duffy has been extremely reliable, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts. He has a 2.53 ERA on the season and a 1.078 WHIP. The Twins are 32-82 in their last 114 games versus starters with a WHIP of less than 1.150. They are 1-18 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower. The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a home favorite, 5-0 in his last five series-opening starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus the Twins. Nolasco has a 9.20 ERA over his last three starts and a 7.32 road ERA on the season. The Twins are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City. Take the Royals on the RL. |
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08-25-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -131 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -131 The Key: I'll back one of the best home clubs in baseball here with Liriano on the hill. The Pirates are 20-8 in their last 28 at home. They are in good hands with Liriano, who has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. The southpaw's clubs are 7-1 all-time in his starts versus St. Louis, and he's posted a tidy 2.34 ERA in these contests. Lackey has a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts, and a Pittsburgh club that's batting an impressive .273 at home will welcome him to the mound. The Pirates are 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 5-12 in their last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh. Take the Pirates. |
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08-24-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -137 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Brewers will bear down and bounce back strong. They are 8-1 in their last nine after losing the first two games of a series, and they have a long history of dominating the Pirates. They are 74-34 in the last 108 meetings, including 51-14 in the last 65 in Milwaukee. Fiers is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts while striking out 25 and walking three. In other words, he's been completely dominant. Worley has struggled of late, going 0-2 in his last two starts while giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Worley is 0-2 in two career starts in Milwaukee. The Brewers have won two of Fiers' last three starts versus the Pirates. Take Milwaukee. |
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08-23-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Washington Nationals -166 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
7* Mound Mismatch Game of the Month on Nationals -166 The Key: The Nationals, winners of 10 of 11, have the decisive edge in this matchup with Zimmermann getting the ball. The right-hander has a 2.97 ERA on the season, a 2.85 ERA at home, a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.83 ERA in his day starts. Lincecum has a 4.50 ERA in his starts this season, a 6.06 ERA in his road starts, a 6.91 ERA over his last three starts and a 4.52 ERA in his day starts. He has an ERA of 6.08 in nine starts versus Washington while Zimmermann has a 2.89 ERA in seven starts versus San Francisco. The Giants are 0-6 in Lincecum's last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 1-6 in his last seven starts versus the Nationals and 0-4 in his last four road starts versus the Nats. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Zimmermann's last four starts, 21-3 in his last 24 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 4-1 in his last five starts versus the Giants. Take Washington. |
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08-22-14 | Atlanta Braves -103 v. Cincinnati Reds | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Braves -103 The Key: Atlanta is absolutely on fire right now. The Braves cashed in an easy 8-0 win over the Reds in the series opener and have now won 6 of their last 7 overall. Not only is Atlanta getting great starting pitching, but they are averaging 6.1 runs and hitting .277 as a team over their last 7 games. I look for the Braves' bats to stay hot at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and deliver another lopsided win. Atlanta is 24-8 in their last 32 games played on Friday and 8-2 in Minor's last 10 starts against the NL Central. Take the Braves. |
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08-21-14 | Detroit Tigers -115 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Tigers -115 The Key: Detroit has won each of the first two games in this series and are now 5-2 in their last 7. The Tigers will be highly motivated to finish off the sweep, as they will send out David Price against his former team. Price is certainly going to have a chip on his shoulder to show the team that just traded him that they made a big mistake. Price is 31-12 in his last 43 road starts against a team that's averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits and the Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 against an opposing starter with a ERA of 3.20 or better. Tampa Bay is just 1-7 in their last 8 games as a home underdog, 3-10 in their last 13 with a total of 6.5 or lower and 1-4 in Cobb's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Take the Tigers. |
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08-20-14 | Atlanta Braves +105 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves +105 The Key: The Braves have taken the first two games of the series and have now won 5 straight overall. Atlanta's not only getting great starting pitching during this stretch, but they are heating up at the plate. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 4 against the NL Central and 5-0 in their las 5 games with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Atlanta will be starting Alex Wood, who has a 2.92 ERA over 8 road starts and 1.86 ERA over his last 3. Pittsburgh is 0-7 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, 0-5 in their last 5 against the NL East and 0-7 in their last 7 with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Great spot to fade the Pirates as Gerrit Cole figures to struggle in his first start back after missing over a month on the DL. Take Atlanta. |
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08-19-14 | Los Angeles Angels -121 v. Boston Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Angels -121 The Key: Red Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 home games, 6-16 in their last 22 as a home dog and 1-4 in Webster's last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record. Webster has a 3-1 record of 4 starts, but his 4.79 ERA and 1.451 WHIP over that span informs he's been extremely fortunate. I look for LA to put up a big number and secure a win behind veteran ace Jered Weaver. The Angels are 7-1 in Weaver's last 8 starts when he comes in with a full 5 days of rest, 8-2 in his last 10 road starts with a total of 9.0-10.5 and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 road starts against a team with a losing record. Take the Angels. |
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08-18-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
6* Run Line Rout on Nationals -1.5 (-105) The Key: The Nationals are 6-0 in their last six games, winning them by an average of 2.2 runs. They are also 5-0 in their last five home games, winning these by an average of 2.2 runs as well. Nuno's clubs are 0-8 in his last eight starts and have lost these by 2.6 runs on average. His clubs are 0-4 in his last four road starts and have lost these by 3.0 runs on average. The Nats are 3-0 in Zimmerman's last three starts, winning them by 4.7 runs on average. They are 4-0 in his last four home starts with these wins coming by an average of 4.5 runs. The Diamondbacks are 3-30 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater while the Nationals are 22-5 in their last 27 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater. Take Washington on the run line. |
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08-17-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Los Angeles Dodgers -113 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -113 The Key: I think Milwaukee relaxes here after beating Greinke and Kershaw. The Dodgers, who haven't been swept all season, will bear down to salvage a game. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less in their previous game. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last four Sunday games. Dan Haren's clubs are 3-0 in his three career starts versus Milwaukee. He's posted an ERA of 0.90 in these games. Milwaukee's Wily Peralta, on the other hand, has an ERA of 8.21 in two career starts versus the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles. |
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08-16-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 | 0-6 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
6* MLB "Total" Blowout on Orioles/Indians Over 8.5 The Key: Look for plenty of runs to be scored here with Jimenez and Carrasco on the hill. Carrasco was good against the Yankees in his first start back but will have a tough time dealing an encore performance versus a Baltimore club that has averaged 6.1 runs over its last 10 games. Jimenez has a 4.51 ERA on the season and was rocked by the Indians in a 9-0 defeat earlier this season. You want to play the "Over" on home teams when the total is 8.0 or 8.5 that have allowed three runs or less in two straight games if they average 4.5 runs per game or less and are facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 to 4.70. Doing so has produced a 40-15 mark since 1997. We've seen an average of 10.3 total runs scored in this situation. Take the Over. |
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08-15-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Washington Nationals -148 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
7* NL Non-Division Game of the Month on Nationals -148 The Key: The Nationals have the edge with Roark on the hill. Roark has given up just one run in each of his last five starts versus NL foes, and the Nats went 5-0 in those games. He has a 2.40 home ERA on the season. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter. They figure to have plenty of success versus Pittsburgh right-hander Morton, who has a 4.91 road ERA. The Pirates are 0-4 in Morton's last four starts, and he was rocked in three of those. The Pirates are also 0-4 in Morton's last four series-opening starts. Take Washington. |
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08-14-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Colorado Rockies -113 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rockies -113 The Key: The Reds are 0-7 in their last seven road games versus teams with a losing home record, and they are 0-5 in the struggling Simon's last five starts. He has a 4.78 ERA during this span, and I don't expect anything to come easy in his first start inside flighty Coors Field. De La Rosa has a 1.86 ERA over his last three home starts, and the Rockies are an amazing 44-8 in his last 52 inside Coors. Colorado is also 10-1 the last two seasons in his home starts when the money line is +100 to -150. Take the Rockies. |
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08-13-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+106) The Key: The Angels are showing value on the run line given the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, who is 10-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 18 starts against NL clubs. The Phillies are 0-5 in Burnett's last five starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs while he's compiled a 6.66 ERA. They are also 0-5 in his last five road starts, losing these by 4.8 runs on average. Burnett's clubs are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Angels. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four interleague road games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 0-8 in the last 8 meetings with the Angels. Take LA on the run line. |
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08-12-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -144 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -144 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Wainwright getting the ball. The ace right-hander's 1.32 road ERA is the lowest road mark in baseball. He's also had plenty of success versus the Marlins. The Cards are 5-1 in his six career starts against them while he's posted a 2.25 ERA. St. Louis is 12-1 since the start of last season in Wainwright's starts as a road favorite of -125 to -150. It is 5-0 in his last five road starts when the total is 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last six starts versus NL East clubs. Wainwright's 1.019 WHIP is also noteworthy since the Marlins are 0-4 in their last four games versus a start with a WHIP less than 1.150. Cosart is in poor form, having given up four runs or more in each of his last five starts. Take St. Louis. |
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08-11-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Year on Mariners -1.5 (+105) The Key: This is a terrible spot for Toronto, which played a 6-hour 37-minute, 19-inning marathon game yesterday and then had to make the long cross-country trip to Seattle. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be facing Felix Hernandez, who has gone at least seven innings while allowing two runs or fewer in an MLB-record 15 consecutive starts. He has a 1.42 ERA during this stretch while holding foes to a .168 average. Seattle is 12-1 against the run line when playing on Monday this season, winning these games by an average score of 6.7 to 2.4. You also want to fade road clubs with a +1.5 run line after a game where they had 17 hits or more if their bullpen has logged 13+ innings over the last three games. Doing so has produced a 30-10 mark against the run line since 1997. Take Seattle on the run line. |
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08-10-14 | Cleveland Indians v. New York Yankees -133 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -133 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Yankees -133 The Key: I'm not hesitating to fade the Indians with Carrasco on the mound. He had a 6.95 ERA before being moved to the pen, and I expect his struggles to continue in a starting role. The Indians are 3-14 in his last 17 starts. New York's Kuroda has a 3.97 ERA in 23 starts and has been at his best in day games, posting a 3.55 ERA. The Yankees are 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite. It is also worth noting that Carrasco has an ERA of 7.98 in three career starts versus the Yankees while Kuroda has an ERA of 3.10 in three career starts versus the Indians. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Cleveland. Take New York. |
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08-09-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -116 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -116 The Key: The Royals are the hottest team in the majors, going an MLB-best 13-3 since July 22, and they are in good hands with Shields, who typically finishes strong. He has a 1.99 ERA over his last six starts and is an impressive 26-12 with a 3.15 ERA in the month of August. He has a 3.42 ERA in four interleague starts this season. San Francisco's Hudson hasn't been as successful in interleague play, as evidence by his 7.41 ERA against the AL this season. The Royals are 32-15 in Shields' last 47 starts, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts versus teams that have a winning record. The Royals are 5-0 in their last five games, 4-0 in their last four interleague games, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite and 6-0 in their last six interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 24-49 in their last 73 interleague road games, 15-37 in their last 52 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter and 6-21 in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 0-4 in Hudson's last four starts on 4 days' rest. Take Kansas City. |
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08-08-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Baltimore Orioles -136 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -136 The Key: The Orioles have a major edge on the mound tonight. Tillman has a 3.65 ERA on the season, a 2.78 ERA at home and a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts. Masterson, meanwhile, has a 5.63 ERA on the season, a 6.80 ERA on the road and a 10.64 ERA over his last three starts. He's also carrying an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore. The Orioles are 28-11 in Tillman's last 39 starts versus a team with a winning record, 17-5 in his last 22 series-opening starts, 5-2 in his last seven interleague starts and 6-0 in his last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The O's are 6-0 in their last six series openers (St. Louis is 1-4 in its last 5), 4-0 in their last four interleague games as a favorite, 4-0 in their last four home games versus a right handed starter and 7-0 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game. Take the Orioles. |
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08-07-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB Total of the Week on Indians/Reds Under 7.5 (-115) The Key: We've seen each of the first three games of this series finish over the total with at least eight runs scored in each, but I expect this one to come in well under the number. Homer Bailey has been dealing. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, including one or no runs in four of those. The under is 3-0 in his last three starts. The under is also 5-0 in Bailey's last five starts versus the Indians. Cleveland's House has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. The Indians are 2-0 under in his last two starts and 3-0 under in his last three road starts. Bailey has received just two runs of support over his last two starts, and I expect the Reds to have trouble scoring against a starter they aren't familiar with. Take the under. |
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08-06-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Los Angeles Angels -145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -145 The Key: I'll fade the Dodgers with Haren on the hill. They are 0-5 in his last five starts, during which he has posted a 10.03 ERA. Haren has struggled on the road all season, as evidenced by his 5.40 ERA away from Chavez Ravine. The Angels' are 10-3 in Shoemaker's 13 career starts, including 2-0 in his last two. He's been strong at home where he has a 2.76 ERA in seven starts this season. The Dodgers are 27-57 in their last 84 interleague road games, 0-5 in their last five interleague games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 37-15 in their last 52 at home, 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven days or more and 8-0 in their last eight Game 3's of a series. The Halos are also 25-9 in their last 34 home games versus the Dodgers. Take the Angels. |
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08-05-14 | Miami Marlins v. Pittsburgh Pirates -139 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -139 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -139 The Key: The Pirates will be at home for the first time since July 23, and home field has treated them well. They are 16-5 in their last 21 home games and 41-16 in their last 57 home games following a road trip of seven days or more. They are 6-0 in their last six home games versus clubs with losing records and 4-0 in their last four versus NL East opponents. They're also 6-0 in their last six home games versus the Marlins. Pittsburgh is in good hands with Morton, who has a 1.36 ERA in his past six starts at PNC Park. The Pirates are 4-0 in his last four home starts and 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Marlins. He's also 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two career home starts versus Miami. The Marlins are 4-12 in Hand's last 16 starts and 1-7 in his last eight starts versus a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh. |
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08-04-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Los Angeles Dodgers -125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Year on Dodgers -125 The Key: This is a tough spot for the Angels, who make the long cross-country trip from Tampa Bay to face Zack Greinke at Chavez Ravine where he has a 2.27 ERA since joining the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 20-4 in his last 24 home starts, 12-1 in his last 13 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 7-0 in his last seven home starts when the total is 6.5 or lower. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six games versus winning teams and 6-0 in their last six home games versus teams with winning road records. Greinke has been sharp in his last two starts, giving up one run in 15 innings. Garrett Richards has struggled lately, giving up eight runs in 13 innings in his last two starts. The Angels are 1-5 in Richards' last six starts as an underdog. Take the Dodgers. |
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08-03-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -126 The Key: Garza has struggled on the road where he has a 4.87 ERA. He's also struggled against the Cardinals, as evidenced by the 4.81 ERA he's posted in nine starts against them. Garza is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals this season. His clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts in St. Louis, during which he's posted a 9.56 ERA. Jhonny Peralta is 13 for 30 against Garza, Matt Holliday is 9 for 24, Matt Adams is 6 for 8 and A.J. Pierzynski is 4 for 14 with two home runs. The Brewers are 2-6 in Garza's last eight road starts and 1-6 in his last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The Cardinals are 70-31 in their last 101 home games versus right-handed starters. I expect Lackey to provide a spark for the Cards. He's 18-10 with a 3.07 ERA against NL teams. The Brewers are 19-39 in the last 58 meetings. Take St. Louis. |
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08-02-14 | San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -123 The Key: The Mets lost the first game of the series 5-1, but they are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, 4-0 in their last four games after allowing five runs or more and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less. They are in excellent hands with deGrom getting the ball. The right-hander is 4-0 in his last four starts while giving up just two runs in 27 1-3 innings. Peavy's clubs are 0-10 in his last 10 starts and 0-8 in his last eight road starts. He has a 5.87 road ERA on the season while deGrom has a 1.83 home ERA. Take the Mets. |
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08-01-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout on Tigers -1.5 (-115) The Key: Justin Verlander has been unstoppable against the NL, going 24-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 31 interleague starts, including 13-0 in his last 13 decisions. The Tigers are 2-0 in his two career starts versus the Rockies, and he's posted a 1.84 ERA in these contests. Verlander is also 14-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 15 interleague home starts. He should be able to have his way with a Colorado club that is 0-6 in its last six and 4-18 in its last 22 interleague road games. The Rockies are 2-15 in their last 17 road games and 10-29 in their last 39 games overall. Colorado's Franklin Morales has struggled in interleague play with a 5.76 ERA in 21 appearances. The Rockies are 0-4 in his starts versus the AL this season, during which he's posted a 7.94 ERA. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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07-31-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Cleveland Indians -128 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -128 The Key: The Indians are an impressive 38-15 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 under Francona, and I'll gladly get behind them at this price against a Seattle club they are 7-1 against in the last eight home meetings. Seattle's Chris Young hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.25 ERA. Plus, Cleveland should benefit from having had a look at him just a month ago. The Mariners are 1-4 in Young's last five starts as a road underdog. It is also worth noting that Seattle is just 1-5 in its last six Game 3's of a series. The Indians are 2-0 in McAllister's last two home starts versus the Mariners. They are 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite and 5-1 in his last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Cleveland. |
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07-30-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
7* AL Central Game of the Year on Royals -144 The Key: The Royals have a significant advantage with Danny Duffy on the mound. The southpaw has a 2.47 ERA and a WHIP of 1.078 on the season. He is in top form, holding opponents to one earned run or none in five of his last six starts. The Royals are 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Twins. He's held them to one earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 1-3 innings. The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a favorite. Minnesota is 30-78 in its last 108 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150, including 0-12 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or less. It has lost these 12 by 4.3 runs on average. Minnesota's Phil Hughes is in poor form with a 6.31 ERA over his last seven starts. He's given up at least five runs five times during this stretch. He appeared to be on his way to another poor outing in his last start when he gave up two runs in three innings before leaving in the fourth after being hit on the right ankle with a comebacker. Hughes has an ugly 5.89 ERA in nine starts versus Kansas City. The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 meetings in Kansas City. Take the Royals. |
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07-29-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +104 v. San Diego Padres | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Cardinals +104 The Key: This is a tough spot for the Padres, who played in Atlanta yesterday and then had to make the long cross-country trek home. While the St. Louis offense has struggled this season, it is still better than San Diego's offense, which is batting only .218 and averaging 3.1 runs per game. The Cards are batting .251 and averaging 3.7 runs per game. St. Louis' Lynn has taken care of business against weak offensive teams. In fact, the Cards are 9-0 the last 2 seasons in his starts versus NL clubs averaging 3.8 runs or less per game. They have defeated these clubs by an average score of 7.3 to 2.6. The Cardinals are 74-32 in the last 106 meetings. Take St. Louis. |
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07-29-14 | Colorado Rockies +107 v. Chicago Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
6* MLB Line Mistake on Rockies +107 The Key: Colorado has struggled on the road but shouldn't be plus-money given the edge it has on the mound with De La Rosa, who has a 1.40 ERA over his last 3 starts. Chicago's Jackson has a 10.29 ERA over his last 3 starts. De La Rosa has a 2.37 ERA in 5 career starts versus the Cubs with the Rockies going 4-1 in these outings. Jackson has a 12.66 ERA in 8 career starts versus the Rockies, and his clubs are 1-5 in his last 6 starts against them. The Rockies are 42-15 in De La Rosa's last 57 starts versus a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 16-36 in Jackson's last 52 starts, including 0-12 in his last 12 starts on regular rest (4 days). Take Colorado. |
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07-29-14 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Marlins +1.5 (-135) The Key: The Marlins, who are 5-0 in their last five games, are showing major value catching runs at home at this price. Strasburg is not in good form (5.00 ERA L3 starts), and he's struggled on the road all season (5.09 ERA). Strasburg has also struggled in Miami, giving up 7, 7, 4 and 6 runs in his last 4 starts there. The Nationals went 1-3 in these starts, are 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts overall and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts. Alvarez has been unbelievable at home where he has a 1.64 ERA. The Marlins are 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts. He has a solid 3.19 ERA in 6 starts versus Washington. Take the Marlins on the run line. |
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07-28-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cincinnati Reds -125 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
7* National League Game of the Week on Reds -125 The Key: The Reds have lost eight of nine, but six of the losses came on the road to the Yankees and Brewers and two came to the Nationals. I expect Cincinnati to get off the snide here against an Arizona club that is 15 games under .500. The Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus losing clubs and 8-2 in their last 10 home games versus teams with losing road records. The D-backs are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 1-5 in their last six road games versus a right-handed starter. Cincy's Bailey has a 2.79 ERA over his last seven home starts, and the Reds are 2-0 all-time in his starts versus Arizona. Cincy is 11-4 in its last 15 versus the D-backs, including 5-1 in the last six and 3-0 in the last three. Arizona is 5-19 since 1997 in road games when seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent as a home favorite. It is also 4-12 this season when seeking revenge from two straight home losses to an opponent. Take the Reds. |
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07-27-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -132 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -132 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -132 The Key: The Yankees are 39-12 in their last 51 home games versus the Blue Jays, including 21-3 since the start of the 2012 season. Look for New York's dominance over Toronto to continue here. Toronto's Happ has struggled on the road where he has a 5.87 ERA. He's also struggled versus the Yankees, as evidenced by the 5.22 ERA he's posted against them in seven career starts. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Yankees. The Jays are 3-11 in their last 14 road games, 5-14 in their last 19 as an underdog and 2-10 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series. Toronto isn't familiar with Greene, who has a 2.79 ERA on the season. Take the Yankees. |
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07-26-14 | Chicago White Sox -165 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on White Sox -165 The Key: Chicago has a huge advantage with Sale on the mound. The southpaw is 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.863 WHIP. His WHIP is extremely significant because Minnesota is 0-11 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower. The Twins have lost these 11 by 4.0 runs on average. It is also worth noting that they are 30-77 in their last 107 games versus starters with a WHIP less than 1.150. The White Sox are 15-2 in Sale's last 17 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 5-1 in his six career starts versus the Twins. Minnesota is 0-5 in its last five versus losing clubs and 0-6 in its last six home games versus losing clubs. Take Chicago. |
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07-25-14 | Miami Marlins v. Houston Astros -123 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Astros -123 The Key: The Marlins check in off a 3-2 win in Atlanta while the Astros are coming off a 13-1 defeat in Oakland. However, you want to fade teams off a win of two runs or less when they are up against an opponent off a loss of 12 runs or more. Doing so has produced a 28-11 mark since 1997 and a 9-1 mark the last five seasons. Houston's Keuchel has struggled over his last five starts, but all five were on the road. I expect a strong performance from him at home where he's given up just four runs in his last 23 innings. Miami's Hand has a 5.02 ERA in six starts. The Marlins are 3-11 in his last 14 starts, 1-6 in his last seven road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts and 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last four interleague games, 0-4 in their last four interleague games as an underdog, 0-4 in their last four versus AL West clubs and 0-4 in their last four versus losing clubs. They are also 38-86 in their last 124 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Astros are 38-15 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Houston. |
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07-24-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners -128 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mariners -128 The Key: Off back-to-back losses to the Mets, I like Seattle to bounce back strong behind Iwakuma. The Mariners are 14-4 all-time in his starts following two consecutive losses or more. Iwakuma has a 2.95 ERA and a 0.994 WHIP on the season, a 2.81 home ERA and a 0.937 home WHIP on the season and a 1.59 ERA and 0.662 WHIP over his last three starts. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. Chen's numbers don't stack up. He has a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP on the season and a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP on the road. Plus, he is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Mariners, giving up eight runs in 11 innings. You want to fade underdogs of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher with a winning percentage above 70% if they are up against an AL opponent that is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better. Doing so has produced a 54-12 (82%) mark the last five seasons. Take Seattle. |
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07-23-14 | Washington Nationals v. Colorado Rockies +1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Rockies +1.5 -115 The Key: The Rockies are showing a ton of value catching runs at home at a very reasonable price with De La Rosa on the mound. The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are 21-3 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a loss. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they are off three consecutive defeats or more. They are a jaw-dropping 43-8 in his last 51 home starts and 12-1 the last two seasons in his day starts. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 5-1 in De La Rosa's last six starts versus Nationals. Strasburg hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.92 ERA. Take Colorado on the run line. |
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07-22-14 | Houston Astros v. Oakland A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
7* MLB Total of the Week on Astros/A's Under 7.5 (-105) The Key: Oakland busted out at the plate Sunday but was batting just .234 this month prior. Expect its offensive struggles to continue against Oberholtzer, who has a 3.09 ERA over his last five starts. He's allowed a total of two earned runs in 11 2-3 innings in two career starts in Oakland. The under is 2-0 in those starts. Houston doesn't figure to get much of anything off Kazmir, who has given up two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 12 outings and has a 1.57 ERA at home in 2014. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in three career home starts versus the Astros. The under is 3-0 in those starts. The under is 4-0 in Kazmir's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. It's also 6-0-1 in Oberholtzer's last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance. Take the under. |
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07-21-14 | Detroit Tigers -134 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -134 The Key: Detroit is a major league-best 28-16 on the road and has won 11 of its last 14 away from home while averaging 5.9 runs and batting .302. Look for its road dominance to continue here with Verlander on the mound. The Tigers are 22-6 in his last 28 interleague starts, and he has a 2.12 ERA over his last 14 regular-season starts versus the NL. Detroit is 9-0 all-time under Ausmus in road games following six consecutive games versus division foes. It has won by an average score of 7.1 to 2.9 in this spot. The Tigers are also 7-0 in their last seven games with a total of 9.0-10.5 and 4-0 in their last four interleague games versus a left-handed starter. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take Detroit. |
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07-20-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Tigers -130 The Key: The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first three games of a series, and I expect them to improve on this trend here. They are still 35-16 in their last 51 home meetings with the Indians. Cleveland hasn't hit southpaw starters well, averaging just 3.8 runs per game against them on the season. It will have a tough time getting to Smyly, who has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 home starts. He's also been tough on the division with a 2.87 ERA versus AL Central foes this season. Cleveland's Tomlin will be tested by a Detroit offense that is averaging 4.9 runs per game off right-handed starters. He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts and has a 7.06 ERA in four career starts versus Detroit. The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last six starts and 0-2 in his two career starts in Detroit. Take the Tigers. |
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07-19-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Pittsburgh Pirates -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Pirates -144 The Key: The Rockies are just 15-36 in their last 51 overall, 31-67 in their last 98 on the road and 1-10 in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last four at home, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against this struggling Colorado club. Charlie Morton has been one tough cookie at home where he has posted a 1.10 ERA over his last five starts. The right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in two career starts at PNC against Colorado. Colorado's Brett Anderson has a 4.95 ERA on the season and a 5.14 ERA over his last three starts. His clubs are 1-6 in his last seven starts. You want to fade July NL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that allow 4.8 runs per game or more. Doing so has produced a 41-7 mark the last five seasons. This system is a near perfect 9-1 the last three seasons. Take Pittsburgh. |
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07-18-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -117 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Lynn getting the ball. He's 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 10 home starts. He was rocked in L.A. last month but had a blister on his middle finger that limited him to throwing all fastballs. Prior to that, he was 4-0 with a 1.40 ERA versus the Dodgers. With his finger healed, I expect him to go back to dominated L.A. Haren has been rocked in his last two starts (12 runs allowed in 9 1-3 innings), and he's been hit hard on the road all season (5.05 ERA). The Dodgers are 2-5 in Haren's last seven road starts while the Cardinals are 7-2 in Lynn's last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record and 67-28 in their last 95 home games versus a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cards. |
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07-13-14 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -144 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144 The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with the southpaw Ryu against a San Diego club that is batting .195 and averaging just 2.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters. The Dodgers are 19-5 in Ryu's last 24 starts versus a team with a losing record. Ryu is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.93 in three career starts versus the Padres. The Dodgers are batting .265 and averaging 4.3 runs per game off right-handed starters. The Padres are 1-6 in Ross' last seven starts, including 0-3 in his road starts during this stretch. The Padres are 0-4 in his last four division starts, 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts following a team loss. The Padres are also 0-3 in his last three starts versus the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles. |
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07-12-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals -117 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
7* AL Central Game of the Month on Royals -117 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Royals will bear down and get one back this evening. Kansas City is an outstanding 42-19 in its last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and I'll gladly get behind it at this price with Shields on the hill. The Royals are 30-12 in Shields' last 42 starts, 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-3 in his last 13 starts versus a team with a winning record. He was hit hard the last time he faced Detroit and will be extremely focused here as a result. Porcello is having an outstanding season, but he isn't the same caliber of Shields. Take Kansas City. |
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07-11-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Colorado Rockies -157 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rockies -157 The Key: The Rockies are worth the price at home with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound. They are an unbelievable 42-9 in his last 51 home starts and 18-3 in his last 21 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Rockies are 16-6 in their last 22 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 14-3 in their last 17 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200. I do not see inexperienced starter Kris Johnson faring well in his first starts at flighty Coors against a Colorado offense that is batting .312 there. The Twins are 4-12 in their last 16 interleague games, 1-5 in their last six interleague games as an underdog and 0-5 in their last five series openers. Take Colorado. |
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07-10-14 | Los Angeles Angels -116 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 15-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
7* American League Game of the Month on Angels -116 The Key: The Angels are showing a lot of value at this price versus a Texas club that has dropped 18 of 21. The Halos have lost eight straight versus the Rangers in Texas, and will be out to bring that skid to an end. They're looking at this series as an opportunity to gain more ground on the A's, and I expect them to be extremely focused. The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven division contests while the Rangers are 0-8 in their last eight versus AL West foes. The Rangers are even 0-4 in their last four home games versus a team with a losing road record and 0-7 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP above 1.300. I like LA here regardless of who gets the start. The southpaw Santiago is scheduled, and the Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter. Texas is really struggling to generate offense, averaging just 3.6 runs over its last 11 games. The Halos are averaging 5.8 runs over their last 19 games. I don't see Texas' Lewis, who has a 6.54 ERA at home, having an answer for this offense. Texas is 1-10 this season as a home dog of +100 or higher. Take LA. |
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07-10-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates +108 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 9-1 | Win | 108 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
6* National League Annihilator on Pirates +108 The Key: The Pirates are showing value at this price with Volquez on the mound. The right-hander is in top form, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last three starts. St. Louis is far from an offensive juggernaut. In fact, its on-base percentage is just .310. This is significant because Volquez's clubs are 11-1 the last two seasons in his starts in the second half of the schedule versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Miller's last four starts, during which he's compiled a 7.32 ERA. Volquez's clubs are 4-2 in his last six starts versus the Cards while the Cards are 2-5 all-time in Miller's starts versus the Pirates. You want to take road teams with a hot starting pitcher who has an ERA lower than 2.50 over his last three starts when matched up against a team with a cold starter who has a WHIP of 2.250 or higher over his last three starts. Doing so has produced a 34-9 mark the last 5 seasons. Take Pittsburgh. |
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07-09-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Brewers -1.5 (+107) The Key: Philly doesn't have enough pop at the plate to get to Lohse, who has a 2.10 ERA in seven home starts this season. The Phillies are batting just .238 on the season, and that doesn't bode well for them here. Milwaukee is a 100 percent perfect 8-0 against the run line this season in Lohse's starts versus NL clubs batting .245 or worse, and it has won these games by an average of 3.5 runs. Philly has managed to win the first two games of this series, but the Brewers are a 100 percent perfect 9-0 against the run line the last three seasons in home games when seeking revenge for two straight upset losses at home to an opponent. They have won by an average of 5.2 runs in this spot. I like Milwaukee's chances of getting to Hernandez, who has a 6.75 ERA in seven road starts this season. Take Milwaukee on the run line. |
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07-08-14 | Kansas City Royals -109 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB Line Mistake on Royals -109 The Key: Kansas City should be a larger favorite given the edge it has on the mound with Vargas, who has a 1.52 ERA on the road this season and has won his last two starts in Tampa Bay while giving up no earned runs in 13 innings. This is Hellickson's first start back, and I'm expecting plenty of rust after he went 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in six rehab starts. He has a 6.18 lifetime ERA versus the Royals with the Rays going 0-3 in his last three starts against them. The Rays are 1-7 in Hellickson's last eight starts versus a team with a winning record. The Royals are 12-4 in their last 16 road games, 28-11 in their last 39 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 against Tampa Bay. Take Kansas City. |