07-08-13 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers +1.5 -133 The Key: The Brewers are showing tremendous value catching 1.5 runs at home at this price. Cincy's Homer Bailey tossed a no-no his last time out. However, the Reds were 0-3 in his previous 3 starts, a stretch where he posted a 5.68 ERA. Expect Bailey to come back down to earth against a club that has had his number. The right-hander is 1-6 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 starts against the Brewers. He's 0-2 in his last 2 starts at Milwaukee, giving up 11 runs in just 9 2-3 innings. The Reds are 2-7 in his last 9 road starts. Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse has found his groove, going 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA in last 6 starts. The Brewers are 3-0 in Lohse's last 3 home starts. The righty has enjoyed plenty of success against the Reds, going 2-1 with a 1.76 ERA in his last 7 starts against them. His teams are 3-0 in his last 3 home starts against Cincy. Take Milwaukee on the run line.
|
07-06-13 |
Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
|
6-0 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Early Blowout on Blue Jays -1.5 -108 The Key: We cashed in with the Blue Jays on the run line Friday, and I'll stick with them here. The Twins are now 0-6 in their last 6 games with an average losing margin of 3.3 runs. Dickey has been dealing of late with the Jays going 4-0 in his last 4 starts. They've won these by an average of 3.5 runs. Pelfrey's road ERA is 6.92, and the Twins are 0-3 in his last 3 road starts with a 3.3-run average losing margin. Dickey's knuckler has been tough to read during the day, and his teams are 19-6 in his day starts since the beginning of last season as a result. The Twins have lost 20 of their last 26 in Toronto where the Jays are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. They've won these 7 by 4.0 runs on average. Take Toronto on the run line.
|
07-05-13 |
Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
119 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Blue Jays -1.5 +119 The Key: The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games and have lost these by an average of 3.2 runs. I expect their struggles to continue give how poorly they've performed on Friday this season. The Twins are 0-11 on Friday and have lost these contests by an average of 4.0 runs. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite and have won these by an average of 4.0 runs. Toronto also has the advantage on the mound with Buehrle. The Jays are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, winning these by 2.75 runs on average. He's given up 2 earned runs or less in each of the 4. Correia has struggled immensely on the road where he has an ERA of 5.18. Take Toronto on the run line.
|
07-02-13 |
Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
Top |
3-11 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Year on Braves -1.5 -107 The Key: The Braves are 7-0 in their last seven games versus Miami and have won these games by an average of 3.1 runs. I expect their dominance of the Marlins to continue with Medlen on the mound. The right-hander has dominated soft-hitting clubs like Miami. In fact, the Braves are 11-0 in his last 11 starts in the second half of the season versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage .325 or worse. They have won these games by an average of 4.1 runs. The Braves are also 12-0 all-time in Medlen's starts in the second half of the season versus poor-power teams that average 0.9 or less home runs per game. They have won these by an average of 4.7 runs. Atlanta is 6-0 lifetime in Medlen's starts against the Marlins, winning these by 2.8 runs on average. He has a 2.29 ERA in these starts. Atlanta is even 5-0 in Medlen's last 5 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater, winning these by an average of 3.6 runs. Take the Braves on the run line.
|
06-27-13 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
126 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 +126 The Key: The Dodgers are in the midst of their longest win streak of the season. They are 5-0 in their last five games, winning these by an average of 2.4 runs. They are in great position to extend this run with Greinke on the hill. The Dodgers are 5-0 in his home starts, during which he's posted an ERA of 2.12. These wins have come by an average of 2.6 runs. Greinke's teams are a perfect 20-0 in his home starts versus losing clubs since the start of the 2011 season and have won these starts by an average score of 6.2 to 3.3. His clubs are also 14-0 in his starts as a home favorite of -175 to -250 during this span, winning these by an average score of 5.9 to 2.4. Take the Dodgers on the run line.
|
06-17-13 |
Miami Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +102 The Key: The D-backs are 13-0 in Pat Corbin's starts this season, and he has posted an ERA of just 2.28 in these games. Arizona has won these games by an average of 3.2 runs so there is value in taking it on the run line. Corbin has an ERA of 1.60 at home on the season, and the D-backs are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts dating back to last season. They've won these by an average of 2.6 runs. Corbin should have plenty of success against a Miami lineup that is batting just .217 against lefties. It's also important to note that the D-backs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in Corbin's last 4 series-opening starts. Miami is 0-5 in the first game during each of its 5 road trips this season. Take Arizona on the run line.
|
06-14-13 |
Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -1.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Month on A's -1.5 +108 The Key: First off, the Mariners are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games and 1-11 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Oakland is 12-1 as a favorite of -150 or more this season. Secondly, the Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a left-handed starter. They lost these contests by an average of 4.8 runs. They figure to have their hands full with Tom Milone, who has a 2.43 ERA at home. The A's are 3-0 in his 3 career home starts against the Mariners, winning those by 3.3 runs on average. The A's are also 4-0 in Milone's last 4 starts series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Oakland is 10-0 this season in home games versus AL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. It has won these games by an average of 3.0 runs. The Athletics are also 9-0 in their last 9 series openers and 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. They should have their way with Joe Saunders. The Mariners are 0-6 in Saunders' 6 road starts this season, and he has an ERA of 9.00 in these games. He's also 0-2 in his last 2 starts in Oakland. Take the A's on the run line.
|
05-28-13 |
Miami Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Rays -1.5 -106 The Key: The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 games and have lost these by an average of 2.5 runs. They are also 0-6 in their last 6 road games, losing these by an average of 2.7 runs. Miami is 0-3 in Kevin Slowey's last 3 starts. These losses came by an average of 5.3 runs, which isn't hard to believe considering Slowey posted an 8.52 ERA during this stretch. Jeremy Hellickson has struggled but enters with confidence following his best start of the season. Besides, the Rays have won 5 of his last 6 home starts dating back to last season. The Marlins are 9-24 in the last 33 meetings and 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the run line.
|
05-17-13 |
Houston Astros v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
25 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Pirates -1.5 +100 The Key: The Pirates have owned the Astros. They've won 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and 16 of the last 21 at home. Plus, they've never lost to Houston when facing Jordan Lyles. They are 5-0 against the 'stros when Lyles gets the start. Lyles has a 7.77 ERA in these 5 starts. It's also worth noting that the Astros are 0-9 in Lyles' last 9 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-7 in his last 7 interleague starts. Take Pittsburgh on the run line.
|
05-13-13 |
New York Mets v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
119 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -1.5 +119 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Lynn, who has a 2.72 ERA on the season and a 1.35 ERA at home. The Cards are 6-0 in his last 6 regular-season home starts and have won these by 4.33 runs on average. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. New York's Hefner has an ERA of 4.24 and that number balloons to 5.73 on the road. The Mets are 0-6 in his last 6 starts, losing these by 2.0 runs on average. The Mets are batting just .233 against righty starters this season and are 0-7 in their last 7 games versus a right-handed starter. The Cards are hitting .272 against righty starters and are 9-0 in their last 9 games versus them. The Mets are only 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cards on the run line.
|
05-12-13 |
Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals -1.5 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Nationals -1.5 +128 The Key: The Cubs won yesterday but had lost 5 straight to Washington by an average of 5.2 runs prior. Gio Gonzalez has been the NL Central's worst nightmare. The Nationals are 13-1 in his 14 starts against the NL Central and have won these by an average score of 6.6 to 3.2. They have won both of his starts against the Cubs by 3 and 8 runs. It's also noting that Washington is 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200, winning these by an average of 4.75 runs. The Cubs are 8-23 in their last 31 games following a win, 14-42 in their last 56 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 3-9 in their last 12 games versus a left-handed starter. Take Washington on the run line.
|
05-10-13 |
Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 |
|
4-10 |
Win
|
115 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Tigers -1.5 +115 The Key: The Indians have been rolling, but I expect them to cool off in Detroit where they are 8-28 since the start of 2009. The Tigers are 4-0 in Max Scherzer's last 4 starts, winning these by an average of 4.75 runs. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200, winning these by an average of 4.57 runs. The Tigers are 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 starts versus the Indians with each of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. The Indians are 4-10 in Corey Kluber's 14 starts. These losses have come by an average of 4.3 runs and include 0-4 loss in his most recent start against Detroit. Take the Tigers on the run line.
|
05-08-13 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 |
|
4-10 |
Win
|
119 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -1.5 +119 The Key: The Rays have lost the first two games of the series, but I expect them to bounce back strong tonight with Matt Moore on the mound. The southpaw is 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA on the season. He's 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA at home. Dating back to last season, the Rays are 8-0 in his last 8 starts and have won these by an average of 4.4 runs with all of them coming by at least 2 runs. The Rays are also 3-0 all-time in Moore's home starts against Toronto. These wins have come by an average of 5 runs with each coming by at least 3 runs. The Blue Jays are just 3-15 in Ricky Romero's last 18 starts and have lost his last 2 starts versus Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the run line.
|
05-06-13 |
Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Red Sox -1.5 +102 The Key: The Red Sox will be hungry tonight after getting swept at Texas. They are in great hands with Clay Buchholz getting the ball. He's 6-0 with an ERA of 1.01 in 6 starts, and the Sox have won these by an average of 4.2 runs. Boston is an impressive 17-3 since the start of last season with Buchholz on the hill as a favorite of -110 or higher. It has won these contests by an average score of 6.2 to 3.5. The Red Sox are also 5-0 in their last 5 at home, winning these by 3.8 runs on average. Minnesota's Vance Worley is 0-4 (2-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.22 in 6 starts. Bet Bean Town on the run line.
|
05-05-13 |
Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Houston Astros |
|
9-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Tigers -1.5 -161 The Key: Philip Humber is 0-6 with an ERA of 7.58 on the season. These 6 defeats have come by an average of 5.2 runs and all of them came by at least 3 runs. Humber is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA in 2 starts versus Detroit. It is also worth noting that his teams are 0-10 with him on the mound when the total is 8 to 8.5 since the start of last season. They have lost by an average of 5.3 runs in these spots. Justin Verlander is coming off a gem and just enjoyed the best April of his career. He has a 1.83 ERA in all starts, and that number is down to 1.50 on the road. The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -201 or greater and 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts as a road favorite of -201 or greater. Take the Tigers on the run line.
|
05-02-13 |
Miami Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
115 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Phillies -1.5 +115 The Key: Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick is dealing. They have won each of his last 2 and 3 of his last 4 starts, during which he has given up only 4 runs in 28 innings. Miami has lost each of Alex Sanabia's last 2 starts and 3 of his last 4, during which he has allowed 16 runs in 23 2/3 innings. Kendrick has a strong track record against Miami. He's 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Marlins with 3 of these wins coming by 2 runs. He's given up just 4 runs in 24 1/3 innings spanning these starts. The Phillies are also 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus Miami. All 5 of these wins have come by at least 2 runs. The Phillies also swept the Marlins in a 3-game series the last time they visited, winning all 3 by 2 runs. Take Philly on the run line.
|
04-30-13 |
Houston Astros v. New York Yankees -1.5 |
|
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Yankees -1.5 -129 The Key: The Astros are 0-5 in Philip Humber's first five starts and have lost these by an average of 5.6 runs. All 5 losses came by at least 3 runs. The Yankees are 4-0 in Hiroki Kuroda's last 4 starts. These wins came by an average of 3.0 runs with all 4 coming by at least 2.0 runs. Kuroda's teams are also 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus the Astros with these wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. Take the Yankees on the run line.
|
04-23-13 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. New York Mets +1.5 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-133 |
8 h 24 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Line Mistake on Mets +1.5 (-133) The Key: Oddsmakers have made a mistake giving us the Mets +1.5 at an affordable price. The Dodgers are struggling, having lost 6 of their last 7. They have won by more than 1 run just 5 times in 18 games this season. The Mets, meanwhile, have won or lost by a single run in 12 of 17 games. The Dodgers have lost or won by 1 run in 7 of 9 road games this season while the Mets have won or lost by a single run in 8 of 9 home games. Clayton Kershaw is a fantastic starter, but hasn't had ace stuff in his last 2 starts and the Dodgers lost both as a result. They won his start prior to those two but only by 1 run. The Mets are 6-1 in Jon Niese's last 7 starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 5-0 in his last 5 series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days). The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-4 in their last 4 series openers. Kershaw has a good track record against the Dodgers, but he likely won't get much run support with as well as Niese has been dealing. LA is scoring just 2.5 runs per game off southpaw starters this season. Keep in mind the Mets are scoring 5.0 runs per game off lefty starters. Bet the Mets on the run line.
|
04-21-13 |
Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Major Mismatch* on Braves -1.5 -107 The Key: The Braves have the clear advantage with Medlen on the mound. They are 25-2 in his last 27 starts. He's carrying a 1.42 ERA through his first three starts while Pittsburgh's Sanchez has a 12.97 through his first two. The Braves are 12-0 in Medlen's last 12 road starts and have won these by an average of 3.33 runs. Sanchez's clubs, on the other hand, are 0-10 in his last 10 starts and have lost them by an average of 4.8 runs. It is also worth noting that the Braves are 12-0 in Medlen's last 12 starts versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average of 3.9 runs. Lastly, the Braves are 13-0 in Medlen's last 13 starts when the total is 7 to 8.5 and have won these by an average of 4.0 runs. Take Atlanta on the run line.
|
04-19-13 |
San Diego: E Volquez v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -1.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-101 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -1.5 (-101) The Key: Dating back to last season, the Giants are 4-0 in Madison Bumgarner's last 4 starts. They have won these by an average of 2.0 runs. The Padres, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Edison Volquez's last 4 starts and have lost these by an average of 5.8 runs. The Giants are also 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 home starts versus the Padres with these wins coming by an average of 2.0 runs. Volquez's teams are 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Giants, losing these by an average of 3.5 runs. Take San Francisco on the run line.
|
04-17-13 |
San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-111 |
13 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Dodgers -1.5 -111 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong behind ace Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 home starts and have won these by an average of 4.3 runs. They are also 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus San Diego with the 6 wins coming by an average of 2.5 runs. The Padres aren't in the same hands with Tyson Ross. His teams are 0-5 in his last 5 starts and have lost them by an average of 2.4 runs. They are also 0-5 in his last 5 road starts, losing those by 3.4 runs on average. Take LA on the run line.
|
04-14-13 |
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
7-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Reds -1.5 +115 The Key: The Reds have the advantage with Mat Latos on the hill. They are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, winning these by an average of 4.0 runs. His teams are also 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -150 or higher, winning these by an average of 2.5 runs. Latos is also 4-0 (6-0 on the money line) lifetime against the Pirates with an ERA of 2.11. These 6 wins have come by an average of 3.5 runs. Take the Reds on the run line.
|
04-14-13 |
Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -1.5 |
|
9-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Nationals -1.5 +146 The Key: The Nats have the edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. They are 8-0 all-time with him on the bump in games when they are listed as a favorite of -150 or higher. They have won these games by an average of 3.6 runs. It is also worth noting that the Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. They've won these by an average of 5.2 runs. The Braves send Paul Maholm to the hill, and he has a poor track record against Washington. He is just 1-6 (2-8 on the money line) lifetime against the Nationals with an ERA of 5.52. 4 of the 5 losses his teams have suffered against Washington have come by at least 2 runs. Take Washington on the run line.
|
04-13-13 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
0-8 |
Win
|
128 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Cardinals -1.5 +128 The Key: Yovani Gallardo is struggling, as evidenced by his 5.73 ERA and 2.000 WHIP through two starts. Adam Wainwright has been much better with an ERA of 3.46 and a 1.385 WHIP. Gallardo has never fared well against St. Louis. He's 1-10 (3-12 on the money line) lifetime against the Cards with an ERA of 6.75. These 12 losses have come by an average of 4.7 runs. Wainwright is 8-6 (10-7 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.15 in 17 career starts against Milwaukee. He has limited the Brewers to 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts against them. Take St. Louis on the run line.
|
04-10-13 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
|
2-10 |
Win
|
115 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Diamondbacks -1.5 +115 The Key: The D-backs will be very hungry this afternoon after blowing a 4-1 lead yesterday and dropping a second straight game to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has really struggled against left-handed starters this season, scoring just 1.3 runs in 3 games against them while hitting only .114. Expect those struggles to continue against Miley, who has a 1.64 ERA against them in 2 starts. Jonathan Sanchez has been a dead fade as his teams are 0-9 in his last 9 starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs. Each of these 9 losses came by at least 2 runs. Take Arizona on the run line.
|
04-09-13 |
Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Braves -1.5 +106 The Key: The 6-1 Braves are showing value on the run line against the 1-6 Marlins. 5 of Atlanta's wins have come by at least 2 runs while 5 of Miami's losses have come by 2 runs or more.
The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games versus Miami, winning these by an average of 2.6 runs. They are also in good hands with Medlen on the mound. Atlanta is 5-0 in his 5 career starts versus the Marlins, winning these by 3.2 runs on average.
The Braves are also 11-0 in Medlen's last 11 road starts, winning these by 3.5 runs on average. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 0-5 in LeBlanc's last 5 starts as an underdog, losing these by an average of 3.2 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
|
04-08-13 |
Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -1.5 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
136 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Bailout on Giants -1.5 +136 The Key: The Giants have the edge on the mound with Bumgarner. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus the Rockies, winning these by an average of 4.0 runs. He has held the Rockies to 1 earned run or none 8 of the last 9 times he's faced them. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 12-1 in Bumgarner's last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. De La Rosa had some success early in his career against San Francisco but has lost 3 of his last 4 starts against the Giants, including each of his last 2. He's given up 9 runs in 9 2/3 innings in those 2. The Rockies are 1-5 in De La Rosa's last 6 road starts and 9-25 in their last 34 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants on the run line.
|
04-06-13 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *RUN LINE ROUT* on Dodgers -1.5 +110 The Key: With Friday's 3-0 win, the Dodgers are now 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus the Pirates. They have won these by an average of 4.6 runs. Dating back to last season, the Pirates are only 1-9 in A.J. Burnett's last 10 starts. They are 0-3 in his last 3, losing those by an average of 2.3 runs. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Clayton Kershaw's last 4 starts, winning those by an average of 4.5 runs. In addition, Burnett's clubs are 0-11 all-time with him on the mound in road games when the total is 7.0 or less. They have lost these contests by an average score of 6.3 to 2.2. In other words, Burnett has lost pitching duels on the road time and time again. Take the Dodgers on the run line.
|
04-04-13 |
Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
|
8-10 |
Win
|
126 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Blue Jays -1.5 +126 The Key: The Blue Jays enter the season with huge expectations but have disappointed in their first two games. I expect them to show up hungry and focused here as a result. They have a definite edge on the mound with Mark Buehrle, who was solid in spring training. Brett Myers, not so much. He posted a 9.00 ERA in the spring while Buehrle posted a 4.50 ERA. Buehrle's clubs are 73-33 all-time with him on the hill as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Also, the Tribe is a soft 4-10 in its last 14 games versus southpaw starters. The Indians are also 16-36 in their last 52 games as a road underdog, and the Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 in the third game of a series. Take Toronto showing good value on the run line.
|
04-03-13 |
Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *MAJOR MISMATCH* on Nationals -1.5 -110 The Key: The Nationals hold major mismatches all over the field, but especially on the mound. Gio Gonzalez was fantastic in the spring, and his teams are 46-18 all-time when listed as a favorite of -110 or higher with him on the mound. They have won these games by an average score of 5.1 to 3.0. The Marlins have struggled on the road against southpaws. In fact, they are 0-7 in their last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter and have lost these by 2.9 runs on average. Take Washington on the run line.
|
03-31-13 |
Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros +1.5 |
|
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 17 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Astros +1.5 -119 The Key: The Astros are showing value catching 1.5 runs at this price with Bud Norris on the bump. He went 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 11 home outings last season. His success was certainly no fluke as he has a solid 3.51 ERA in 48 starts at Minute Maid Park. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter. They are also 1-4 in Matt Harrison's last 5 road starts. Harrison was shelled in his only start at Minute Made Park in 2011, giving up 5 earned in a 7-0 defeat. It's also worth noting that the Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 series openers and 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Astros have won or lost by a single run in each of Norris' last 3 starts. Take Houston on the run line.
|
10-16-12 |
New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
6* ALCS Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Tigers -1.5 +125 The Key: It's Verlander time. Detroit is 6-0 in his last 6 starts and has won those by 3.7 runs on average. It is 10-0 in his last 10 home starts and has won those by 2.9 runs on average. The Tigers are also 15-0 in his last 15 home starts in the second half of the season versus teams with a winning mark. They have won these games by an average of 3.5 runs. They are also 14-0 in his last 14 home starts against teams that have won 54-62% of their games. They have won these games by an average of 2.7 runs. Bet Detroit on the run line.
|
10-10-12 |
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 v. New York Yankees |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles +1.5 -130 The Key: Really like the Orioles catching 1.5 runs at an affordable price with Gonzalez on the bump. Baltimore is 11-4 in his starts this season and 7-2 in his starts as a road underdog on the year. The Orioles are a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and he is 2-0 in 2 career starts at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 2.63. He outdueled Kuroda in his most recent start there Aug. 31, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 7 innings of work while striking out 9 and walking 1 in a 6-1 victory. Take the Orioles on the run line.
|
10-06-12 |
Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
120 |
24 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Tigers -1.5 +120 The Key: Verlander is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with those wins coming by an average of 3.5 runs. The Tigers are 9-0 in his last 9 home starts with those wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. Verlander is also 3-0 in his last 3 starts against Oakland with those wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. He's given up just 1 run in his last 21 innings against the A's. Expect another dominant performance here. Take the Tigers on the run line.
|
10-03-12 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +100 The Key: The D-backs have never lost to the Rockies at home with ace Ian Kennedy on the mound. They are 6-0 lifetime in this spot and have won these by an average of 2.83 runs. The D-backs are 7-0 in Kennedy's last 7 starts versus the Rockies overall and have won these by an average of 2.86 runs. Kennedy enters this contest pitching his best ball of the season, and Arizona is 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a result. It has won these by 2.33 runs on average. The Rockies, on the other hand, are 0-5 in Francis' last 5 starts and have lost those by an average of 4.0 runs per game. With their ace on the hill and a chance to notch a winning season, I'll take the Snakes on the run line.
|
10-01-12 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
Top |
7-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +106 The Key: The Rockies 0-9 in their last 9 on the road and have lost those by an an average of 4.0 runs. Pomeranz has struggled against the NL West all season (0-7 with a 7.24 ERA in 10 starts), and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the division. They have dropped these by 4.75 runs on average. They are also 0-2 in his 2 career starts versus Arizona, losing these by 6.5 runs on average. The D-backs, on the other hand, are 4-0 lifetime in Miley's starts against the Rockies and have won these by an average of 5.75 runs. Take the Snakes on the run line.
|
09-30-12 |
New York Mets v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 The Key: The Braves are 22-0 in Medlen's last 22 starts and have won them by an average of 3.4 runs. They are also 4-0 lifetime in his starts against the Mets and have won those by an average of 5.0 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
|
09-29-12 |
Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins |
Top |
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -140 The Key: The Tigers are 3-0 in Verlander's last 3 starts, winning each of those by 4 runs while he has posted a 0.86 ERA. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -200 or greater, winning these by an average of 2.3 runs. They are also also 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -200 or greater, winning these by an average of 2.0 runs. Detroit is 7-0 in Verlander's last 7 starts against the Twins and has won these by an average of 4.3 runs. He has held the Twins to 1 earned run or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts against them. Lastly, the Twins are 0-4 in Walters' last 4 starts as a home underdog and have lost these by 2.0 runs on average. Take the Tigers on the run line.
|
09-28-12 |
Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 |
Top |
7-6 |
Loss |
-125 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -1.5 -125 The Key: The Brewers are 11-0 in Gallardo's last 11 starts, winning them by an average of 3.9 runs. Gallardo is 10-0 in his last 10 starts versus Houston, and the Brew Crew have won these by an average of 5.7 runs. Milwaukee is 13-0 in Gallardo's starts in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus teams that are outscored by an average of 0.5 or more runs/game. It has won these by an average of 4.6 runs. The Brewers are 15-0 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 4.9 runs, and 13-0 in home games in the 2nd half of the season versus NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these by an average of 3.2 runs. Bet Milwaukee on the run line.
|
09-26-12 |
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Houston Astros |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-117 |
12 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -1.5 -117 The Key: The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games and have won these by an average of 3.25 runs. The Astros, meanwhile, are 0-3 in their last 3 games and have lost these by an average of 5.33 runs. The Astros are 0-10 in their last 10 versus St. Louis and have dropped these by 4.8 runs on average. They are also 0-6 in Norris' last 6 starts with an average losing margin of 2.5 runs in these games. Further bolstering this situation is the fact that Houston hasn't been able to manufacture runs by playing small ball when matched up against teams with good defensive catchers. In fact, it is 0-13 in the second half of this season versus teams with good defensive catchers that hold opponents to 0.5 or less stolen bases per game. It has lost to these teams by an average of 5.2 runs. Bet St. Louis on the run line.
|
09-25-12 |
Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-117 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -117 The Key: The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 overall (2.25-run avg losing margin) and 0-6 in their last 6 on the road (2.00-run avg losing margin). The Braves are 21-0 in Medlen's last 21 starts (3.5-run avg winning margin), 19-0 in his last 19 night starts (3.0-run avg winning margin), 12-0 in his last 12 home outings (3.4-run avg winning margin), 13-0 in his last 13 starts against division opponents (3.8-run avg winning margin), 11-0 in his last 11 starts after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing (3.9-run avg winning margin) and 10-0 in his last 10 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest (2.7-run avg winning margin). The Braves are also 4-0 in his 4 career starts against the Marlins (3.75-run avg winning margin. Take Atlanta on the run line.
|
09-24-12 |
Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -119 The Key: The Tigers are badly in need of a win after getting swept by the Twins in a double header yesterday. Fortunately, they have their ace on the mound. The Tigers are 8-0 in Verlander's last 8 home starts and have won those by an average of 2.9 runs. Verlander is 14-2 with a 2.76 ERA lifetime against KC. I expect him to shut down the Royals and for the sticks to take care of the rest. Take Detroit on the run line.
|
09-13-12 |
Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -1.5 -108 The Key: The Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 games (2.8-run avg. losing margin), 0-5 in McAllister's last 5 starts (3.8-run avg. losing margin) and 0-4 in McAllister's last 4 road starts (2.5-run avg. losing margin). The Rangers are 3-0 in Holland's last 3 home starts (3.7-run avg. winning margin) and 5-0 in his 5 career starts against the Tribe (4.2-run avg. winning margin). Texas is also 6-0 in its last 6 at home against Cleveland (4.0-run avg. winning margin. Take Texas on the run line.
|
09-11-12 |
Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -1.5 -120 The Key: The Indians are 0-5 in Jimenez's last 5 starts (3.0-run avg. losing margin) and 0-8 in his last 8 road starts (3.6-run avg. losing margin). They are also 0-4 in their last 4 in Arlington (4.8-run avg. losing margin). The Rangers are 5-0 in Harrison's last 5 starts as a favorite of -200 or greater (4.2-run avg. winning margin). Bet the Rangers on the run line.
|
09-06-12 |
Chicago (N): J Germano v. Washington: Zimmermann -1.5 |
Top |
2-9 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -1.5 -106 The Key: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games with an average losing margin of 4.0 runs in these contests. They are also 0-7 in their last 7 road games losing those by an average of 3.4 runs. The Cubs are 0-9 this season in road games following 5 or more straight defeats, losing in this situation by an average of 2.6 runs. Germano is 0-3 on the money in his last 3 starts and those losses have come by 6.0 runs on average. He's also 0-8 on the money line in his last 8 road starts with those losses coming by 3.4 runs on average. Lastly, the Nats are 4-0 in their last 4 games with an average winning margin of 4.0 runs. Nats on the run line.
|
09-05-12 |
Chicago (N): C Volstad v. Washington: G Gonzalez -1.5 |
Top |
1-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -1.5 -113 The Key: Gio Gonzalez has been tough on everyone this season, but he's especially been tough on the NL Central. The Nationals are 8-0 in his starts against NL Central foes this season, and they have won these games by an average of 3.0 runs. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 0-6 in Chris Volstad's 6 road starts this season, and they have lost these by an average of 3.7 runs. Bet Washington on the run line.
|
09-04-12 |
Houston Astros v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
105 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -1.5 +105 The Key: Fading the Pirates with Lyles on the mound as a road underdog of +151 to +200 has produced a 9-0 mark all-time that has won by an average of 3.4 runs. The Astros are also 0-4 this season in Lyle's road starts in the 2nd game of a series. They have dropped these by an average of 4.3 runs. Houston is even 0-11 in Lyle's road starts vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. It has lost these by an average score of 7.5 to 3.1. Pound Pittsburgh on the run line.
|
09-03-12 |
Colorado Rockies v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -108 The Key: The Braves are a perfect 17-0 in Kris Medlen's last 17 starts, winning those by an average of 3.4 runs. 6 of those wins have come this season, and he has posted an ERA of just 0.66 in those outings. He has a 0.00 over his last 3 starts and the Braves have won his last 10 starts by 2 runs or more. Bet the Braves on the run line.
|
08-16-12 |
San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
111 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 +111 The Key: I'm going to continue to ride the Braves with Kris Medlen on the mound. They are a perfect 14-0 in his last 14 starts and have won those by an average of 3.2 runs. They have won each of his last 7 starts by at least 2 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
|
08-11-12 |
San Diego: J Marquis v. Pittsburgh: A Burnett -1.5 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -1.5 +121 The Key: Pittsburgh is 10-0 in Burnett's home starts this season (2.6-run average winning margin in these games), 8-0 in his starts vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season (3.6-run avg winning margin in these games), 10-0 in his starts versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game this season. (3.1-run avg margin or victory in these games) and 9-0 in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (3.0-run avg margin of victory in these games). Take the Bucs on the run line as they win by 2-plus behind another outstanding outing from Burnett.
|
08-05-12 |
Houston Astros v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -104 The Key: The Astros are 0-10 in Bud Norris' last 10 starts. They have lost these by an average of 2.8 runs. The Braves, on the other hand, are 12-0 in Kris Medlen's last 12 starts. They have won these by 3.1 runs on average. With this in mind, and the fact that Atlanta has won 9 of its last 11 while Houston has lost 29 of its last 33, I love our chances of covering the run line with the Braves.
|
08-04-12 |
Chicago (N): C Volstad v. Los Angeles: C Kershaw -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -120 The Key: Chris Volstad's clubs are 0-11 in his last 11 starts and have lost these games by an average of 3.6 runs. I don't see anyway he outduels Kershaw here. The LA ace has shut down Chicago each of the last two times he's faced the Cubs. Take LA on the run line.
|
08-04-12 |
Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
6* Red Sox -1.5 +104 The Key: The Red Sox get the call on the run line because of how solid Buchholz has been. The Sox have won 7 of his last 8 starts, and he has held opponents to 2 runs or fewer in 6 of those. Those 7 wins have come by an average of 3.1 runs.
|
08-04-12 |
Miami: M Buehrle v. Washington: Zimmermann -1.5 |
|
7-10 |
Win
|
132 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
6* Nationals -1.5 +132 The Key: I like the Nats on the run line here because of the way Zimmerman is dealing. He has given up 3 earned runs or less in 11 straight starts and has allowed 1 earned run or none in his last 7 starts. That's consistency we can count on. Washington has won his last 4 starts, taking three of those by at least 3 runs. Buehrle has been a solid pitcher for a lot of years, but he clearly already pitched his best baseball.
|
08-03-12 |
Houston Astros v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Run Line Play of the Day on Braves -1.5 -125 The Key: The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus Houston, winning those contests by an average of 4.0 runs. Plus, Hudson is 5-0 on the money line in his last 5 starts with the Braves winning those by an average of 2.6 runs. Hudson is also 4-0 in his last 4 starts against Houston with the Braves winning those by an average of 5.5 runs. Houston scheduled starter Galarraga, meanwhile, is 0-6 on the money line in his last 6 starts with his teams losing them by an average of 2.2 runs. Grab Atlanta on the run line.
|
08-02-12 |
Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
120 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Year on Braves -1.5 +120 The Key: Atlanta is 11-2 against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season this season, defeating them by an average score of 5.0 to 2.0. It is 7-1 in its last 8 overall with 5 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more. It is also 8-2 in its last 10 games versus Miami with those 8 wins coming by an average of 5.5 runs. The Marlins are 1-7 in their last 8 road games with 6 of those losses coming by at least 6 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
|
07-29-12 |
Boston: F Doubront v. New York (A): H Kuroda -1.5 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
6* Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Yankees -1.5 +116 The Key: I like the Yankees on the run line tonight as I fully expect a gem from Kuroda. The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter and have lost those by an average of 5.8 runs. The Yankees are 6-0 in Kuroda's last 6 starts and have won those by an average of 3.7 runs. Boston won yesterday but has dropped 8 of its last 10 following a victory. Take the Yanks on the run line.
|
07-25-12 |
Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 |
Top |
6-11 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Day Game of the Year on Angels -1.5 -107 The Key: The Royals won yesterday, but they are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win, losing these games by an average of 3.0 runs. The Angels are 9-0 in Weaver's last 9 starts, winning these games by an average of 4.3 runs. They are also 8-0 in his home starts this season, winning these by an average of 4.8 runs. Lastly, the Halos are 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts versus the Royals, winning these by an average of 2.0 runs. Take the Angels on the run line.
|
07-22-12 |
New York (A): C Sabathia -1.5 v. Oakland: B Colon |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -1.5 -105 The Key: We missed with the Yankees Saturday as they endured a 3rd straight 1-run defeat. I'm not hesitating to come back with them here with ace CC Sabathia on the hill. The Yanks are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, winning those by an average of 3.0 runs. They are also 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, winning those by an average of 3.8 runs. It is also worth noting that he is 7-2 on the money line in his last 7 starts versus the A's. Oakland's Bartolo Colon is 1-6 with an ERA of 5.08 in 9 home starts this season. His teams are 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Yankees, losing those by an average of 7.0 runs. Take New York on the run line.
|
07-04-12 |
San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
Top |
8-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* NL *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +110 The Key: The Padres are 0-3 in Marquis' last 3 starts (and 1-8 in his last 9), losing those 3 starts by an average of 4.33 runs. The D-backs are 2-0 in Kennedy's last 2 starts, winning those by 5 and 6 runs respectively. The Snakes are also 6-0 in Kennedy's last 6 starts versus the Padres, winning those by an average of 3.33 runs. Take Arizona on the run line.
|
07-04-12 |
Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* AL *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -116 The Key: The Twins are 0-4 in Duensing's last 4 starts (and 1-9 in his last 10), losing those by an average of 4.25 runs. The Tigers are 6-0 in Verlander's last 6 starts versus the Twins, winning those by an average of 4.33 runs. Take the Tigers on the run line.
|
07-01-12 |
Oakland: T Blackley v. Texas: Y Darvish -1.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* AL Game of the Week on Rangers -1.5 -110 The Key: The Rangers are a perfect 7-0 in Darvish's 7 home starts, winning those by an average of 4.3 runs. They have won each of those 7 by 2 runs or more, which makes them a very strong choice on the run line against a club they have defeated 11 times in the last 13 meetings in Arlington. Lay the 1.5 runs.
|
06-23-12 |
Colorado Rockies v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
Top |
11-7 |
Loss |
-130 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -1.5 -130 The Key: With yesterday's 4-1 loss, Colorado fell to 0-10 versus AL West foes this season. It has lost those 10 games by an average of 4.0 runs. The Rockies are also 0-7 on the season versus AL teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better. They have lost these games by an average of 4.6 runs. Lastly, Colorado is 0-9 versus AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game this season, losing to these teams by an average of 4.0 runs. Expect Colorado's struggles to continue against a red-hot Texas club that has won 7 straight (6 of those wins have come by 2 runs or more).
|
06-15-12 |
Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague Blowout Game of the Year on Rangers -1.5 -135 The Key: Houston is 0-3 in Lyles' 3 career starts versus the Rangers and has lost those games by an average of 3.3 runs. The Astros are also 0-4 in his road starts this season, losing them by 3.0 runs on average. Texas is 5-0 in Darvish's home starts with a 4.8-run average margin of victory in those games. These 3 trends form an 11-0 angle that carries an average winning margin of 3.7 runs. With the way Houston has struggled on the road (18-53 in its last 71 road games) and with the way it has struggled against the Rangers (5-16 in the last 21 meetings), I love our chances here. Bet the Rangers on the run line.
|
06-12-12 |
Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 |
Top |
1-7 |
Win
|
130 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -1.5 +130 The Key: The Reds are showing a lot of value at home on the run line considering the advantage they have on the mound with Cueto. The Reds have won 8 of Cueto's last 9 home starts with those wins coming by an average of 3.5 runs. Plus, they are 4-0 all-time in his starts against the Indians with those wins coming by an average of 2.25 runs. He has a low 2.49 ERA in those 4 lifetime starts versus Cleveland. The Tribe's Gomez has been lit up for at least 5 earned in each of his last 3 starts. Take Cincy on the run line.
|
06-06-12 |
Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 |
Top |
0-8 |
Win
|
120 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Month on Brewers -1.5 +120 The Key: Milwaukee is an unbelievable 21-0 the last 2 seasons in Greinke's starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher. It has won these by an average of 3.0 runs. The Cubs are 0-4 in Maholm's last 4 starts. Milwaukee has struck out too much this season but Maholm is 0-10 on the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. He has lost to these teams by an average of 2.8 runs. Plus, the Cubs are 0-9 in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. The Cubs have lost by an average of 2.0 runs in these games. Take Milwaukee on the run line!
|
05-12-12 |
Chicago (N): C Volstad v. Milwaukee: S Marcum -1.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
120 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -1.5 +120 The Key: The Brewers are showing nice value on the run line here as Chris Volstad's teams are 0-8 in his last 8 starts, losing each of those by at least 2 runs. Volstad's teams have also lost his last 2 starts against the Brewers by at least 2 runs. Lastly, Marcum is 3-0 lifetime versus the Cubs with each of those 3 wins coming by 2 runs or more. We'll take the Brew Crew on the RL behind this 13-0 run line angle.
|
05-08-12 |
Detroit: Verlander -1.5 v. Seattle: K Millwood |
Top |
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -109 The Key: I'm not hesitating to pull the trigger on the RL here since the Tigers are a perfect 15-0 in Verlander's last 15 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more. They have won these games by an average of 2.6 runs.
|
05-02-12 |
Minnesota: L Hendriks v. LA Anaheim: J Weaver -1.5 |
Top |
0-9 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Angels -1.5 +100 The Key: The Angels are 3-0 in Weaver's home starts this season, winning those starts by an average of 4.7 runs. The Halos are also 5-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Twins, winning those by an average of 5.0 runs. Take LAA on the run line.
|
04-24-12 |
Seattle: J Vargas v. Detroit: M Scherzer -1.5 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Run Line Blowout on Tigers -1.5 +111 The Key: Scherzer has been solid since a poor start in his first outing of the season. Having not pitched since 4/18, his arm should be feeling good tonight. Keep in mind that Detroit is 11-1 in his last 12 starts when he works on 5 or 6 days' rest. The Tigers have won these starts by an average score of 6.8 to 3.3. Plus, Scherzer is 4-0 lifetime versus Seattle with an ERA of 2.00, and those 4 wins have come by an average of 5.0 runs. Take the Tigers on the run line.
|
09-28-11 |
Boston Red Sox -1.5 v. Baltimore Orioles |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-123 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -1.5 -123 The Key: Expect a gem from Lester in this must-win spot and for Boston's bats to do the rest. Boston has won Lester's last 13 starts against the Orioles, and those wins have come by an average of 4.7 runs. Take the Red Sox on the run line.
|
09-21-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-140 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
7* AL Blowout Game of the Month on Red Sox -1.5 -140 The Key: Every game is a must win for the Red Sox with Tampa Bay hot on their tail. Expect Beckett to shut down the O's tonight and for the Boston offense to do the rest. Beckett is 6-1 (11-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.30 at home. Baltimore's Hunter is carrying an ERA of 5.54 on the road and has an 8.30 ERA against Boston. He's also very susceptible to the long ball. That bodes well for us as Bean Town is 23-6 since the beginning of last season vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start. The Red Sox are winning in this situation by an average score of 6.4 to 3.9. Bet Boston on the run line.
|
09-05-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Labor Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -1.5 -129 The Key: Seattle is 1-11 after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season, losing these contests by an average score of 6.0 to 2.8. The M's are also 1-10 off 3 straight losses against division rivals this season, losing these matchups by an average score of 6.0 to 2.5. In addition to these near-perfect trends, the Halos have a huge edge on the mound with Haren. They've won his last 6 home starts by an average of 2.7 runs. Take the Angels on the run line.
|
09-01-11 |
New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
6* MLB CA$H COW on Red Sox -1.5 +103 The Key: Enormous mismatch on the mound tonight. Burnett has been lit up for 16 runs in his last 2 starts and he's only 2-7 on the money line in his last 9 outing against the Red Sox. Lester is one of the best Yankee killers out there. He's won 5 of his last 6 starts in the series. Take Boston on the run line.
|
08-26-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
117 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
6* MLB CA$H COW on Brewers -1.5 +117 The Key: The Brewers have won each of Wolf's last 5 starts and all 5 wins have come by at least 2 runs. That fact that Milwaukee was shut out in its last game also bodes well for us. Consider that the Brewers are a perfect 12-0 in home games this season following a game in which they scored 2 runs or less. They are winning by an average score of 2.2 runs in this situation. Take Milwaukee on the run line.
|
08-22-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* Monday Night MLB Blowout on Cardinals -1.5 +132 The Key: Plays against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (LA DODGERS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL) - are 52-4 since 1997 with an average losing margin of 2.7 runs. This system is a perfect 13-0 the last 3 seasons. Also, the Cards have won each of Carpenter's 5 home starts against the Dodgers with all of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. Take St. Louis on the run line.
|
08-17-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
115 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
6* Brewers -1.5 +115 The Key: The Brewers are 10-0 in Greinke's home starts this season, winning them by an average of 2.5 runs. Take Milwaukee on the run line.
|
08-17-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 |
|
2-9 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* Phillies -1.5 -114 The Key: The Phillies have won 11 of Lee's last 15 starts and 10 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. Lee hasn't allowed a run in his last 2 starts. Take the Phillies on the run line.
|
08-15-11 |
San Francisco Giants +1.5 v. Atlanta Braves |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
6* Monday Night Baseball CA$H COW (ESPN2) on Giants +1.5 -165 The Key: The reigning World Series champs aren't getting the respect they deserve at this price. The Giants are 7-2 in Bumgarner's last 9 starts, 5-1 in his last 6 road starts and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. We'll take San Francisco on the run line.
|
08-10-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. Minnesota Twins +1.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
110 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
6* Twins +1.5 +110 The Key: The Twins are showing good value catching 1.5 runs at this price when you consider they are 19-6 in Blackburn's last 25 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 9-3 in his last 12 starts as a home underdog.
|
08-10-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* Rangers -1.5 +100 The Key: The Mariners have lost Vargas' last 6 starts with 5 of those losses coming by 2 or more runs.
|
08-08-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. Minnesota Twins +1.5 |
Top |
8-6 |
Loss |
-150 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* Monday Night Baseball *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Twins +1.5 -150 The Key: The Red Sox have lost their last 4 series openers, and they are just 7-15 in their last 22 meetings in Minnesota. The Twins have the big edge on the mound with Baker, who's 5-1 at home this season with an ERA of 1.78. The Twins are 35-17 in Baker's last 52 home starts and 20-7 in his last 27 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Twins on the run line.
|
08-07-11 |
New York Yankees +1.5 v. Boston Red Sox |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Sunday Night Baseball *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Yankees +1.5 -133 The Key: The Yankees are showing good value in the underdog role today, and we'll take them on the run line at a nice price. The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. NY scheduled starter Freddy Garcia is 11-4 on the money line in his last 15 starts as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Take the Yanks on the run line.
|
08-05-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* Bailout on Angels -1.5 -115 The Key: Weaver has owned Seattle. The Angels have won 15 of his 21 career starts against the M's and 12 of those victories have come by at least 2 runs. Plus, Seattle is 0-5 in Vargas' last 5 starts, losing them by an average of 5.2 runs. Take LAA on the run line.
|
08-05-11 |
New York Yankees +1.5 v. Boston Red Sox |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* CA$H COW on Yankees +1.5 -140 The Key: A red hot Yankees club that has won 7 in a row is showing tremendous value catching 1.5 runs at this price with first place in the AL East on the line. Take the Yanks on the run line.
|
07-31-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Runline of the MONTH on Cardinals -1.5 +154
|
07-30-11 |
Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
6* Brewers -1.5 -120 The Key: The Brewers have a huge edge on the mound with Gallardo facing off against Happ, and that edge is even bigger now that Gallardo won't have to face Pence, who has been traded to Philly. Happ is a lowly 1-7 on the road with an ERA of 8.02. Gallardo is an impressive 7-1 at home with an ERA of 3.23. Take the Brew Crew on the run line.
|
07-28-11 |
Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* Run Line Rout on Cardinals -1.5 +115 The Key: The Cardinals have won 8 of Garcia's 9 home starts in 2011, during which he has posted an ERA of only 1.14. It is worth nothing that 6 of those wins have come by 2 or more runs. Take St. Louis on the run line.
|
07-27-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
126 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
6* Blue Jays -1.5 +126 The Key: Expect the Blue Jays to bounce back strong from yesterday's embarrassing defeat. Toronto is 19-3 at home against Baltimore the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 3.0 runs. Plus, the Jays have won each of Romero's last 4 home starts against the O's. Those wins have come by an average of 3.8 runs.
|
07-25-11 |
Kansas City Royals v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-132 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
5* Red Sox -1.5 -132 The Key: The Red Sox have scored 10 or more runs 14 times since May 20 and lead the major with 541 runs. No other team can come close to touching that production. Expect Beat Town to keep swinging hot bats against Davies, who is 1-5 with an ERA of 9.35 on the road this season. Take Boston on the run line.
|
07-25-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Yankees -1.5 +100 The Key: I have no problem fading Seattle here. It has lost 15 in a row with 13 of those losses coming by at least 2 runs. Plus, the M's have lost each of Vargas' last 3 starts against the Yanks with all 3 of those defeats coming by at least 2 runs. Take New York on the run line.
|
07-24-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
106 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Phillies -1.5 +106 The Key: The Phillies have won 8 in a row against the Padres by a minimum of 2 runs. With Halladay out to atone for his shortest performance of the season, the Padres have their work cut out for themselves. Take Philly on the RL.
|
07-22-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
|
2-12 |
Win
|
106 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
6* Rangers -1.5 +106 The Key: The Rangers have lost 2 in a row after rattling off 12 straight wins, so you can bet they'll be hungry in this spot. Lewis' teams are a perfect 9-0 lifetime when they have given him the ball at home following 2 or more consecutive losses. His teams have won by an average score of 8.1 to 3.7 in this spot. Take Texas on the run line.
|
07-22-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
125 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* Phillies -1.5 +125 The Key: The Phillies are showing solid value on the run line at this price when you consider how dominant Hamels has been against the Padres. The Phillies have won each of his last 2 starts against the Pads by at least 2 runs while Hamels has gone 8 innings in each without giving up a single run. Take Philly on the run line.
|
07-18-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Chicago Cubs |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-117 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* Phillies -1.5 -117 The Key: The Phillies are 16-1 with Halladay on the mound this season provided they are valued as a favorite of -150 or more. They are winning these games by an average of 2.0 runs. Take the Phillies on the run line against the struggling Cubs.
|
07-03-11 |
Florida Marlins v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* Rangers -1.5 +106 The Key: The Marlins are 6-24 in their last 30 overall, 0-7 in their last 7 Sunday games and 1-6 in Vazquez's last 7 starts. 3 of their last 4 losses with Vazquez on the mound have come by at least 2 runs.
|
06-21-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
6* Red Sox -1.5 +111 The Key: Boston has won 14 of its last 16 games. 13 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. San Diego's offense and pitching staff have both struggled while losing 9 of 10. Take Boston on the run line.
|
06-13-11 |
Cleveland Indians +1.5 v. New York Yankees |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
6* Monday Night Baseball CA$H COW on Indians +1.5 -125 The Key: The Indians have an excellent opportunity to win this game outright with the struggling AJ Burnett stepping to the hill for New York. He's so overvalued here that it gives us the opportunity to get 1.5 insurance runs at a decent price. The Yanks have dropped 5 of Burnett's last 7 starts and 17 of his last 22 when matched up against a team with a winning record. The worst possible night of the week to back AJ has been Monday. Consider that the Yankees are 0-7 in his last 7 Monday starts. The Indians are 4-1 in Carrasco's last 5 starts, and he should benefit from New York's lack of familiarity with him. Take the Tribe on the run line.
|
06-08-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Houston Astros +1.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Run Line Play of the Day on Astros +1.5 -130 The Key: The stros are showing good value on the run line considering the success Norris has had against St. Louis. He's 5-2 (6-2 on the ML) when starting against the Cards with an ERA of 2.66. Plus, the Astros are 10-4 in Norris' last 14 home starts. Garcia, meanwhile, is 0-1 (0-2 on the ML) when starting against the Astros with an ERA of 6.10.
|
05-28-11 |
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Run Line Blowout on Angels -1.5 -102 The Key: Minnesota starter Anthony Swarzak has lost his last 5 starts with all 5 of those losses coming by at least 2 runs. 4 of those 5 defeats came by 4 runs or more. He's also lost his last 6 home starts with 5 of those defeats coming by at least 2 runs. Also, Minnesota is 0-9 after a game in which its bullpen was rocked for 5 or more runs dating back to the beginning of last season. The Twins are losing these contests by an average of 3.0 runs. Take the Halos on the run line.
|