7* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been dominant since their bye week.  They are 7-0 since their bye and scoring 34 PPG.  The Bucs have the offense to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, who will be running for his life in the Super Bowl without the services of his 2 starting offensive tackles.  The Bucs have the way better defense in this game as they are 6th in the NFL on that side of the ball while the Chiefs are only 18th.  And Tampa Bay will be playing at home.  The Bucs did not play well at all in their first matchup with the Chiefs this season and still only lost 24-27.  They will have their revenge here on the biggest stage of them all with Tom Brady doing what he does.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Bills/Chiefs AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 55

The Key: The Bills and Chiefs already played once this season so they are very familiar with one another.  That is going to favor defense.  The Chiefs won that game 26-17 in a game that saw only 43 combined points.  So getting a total of 55 here in the rematch is too many points.  The Chiefs can move the ball fine but they have been terrible in the red zone at scoring touchdowns.  They have to settle for a lot of field goals.  The same can be said of the Bills, who don't have a running game right now, and that hurts them in red zone situations.  I think we get our fair share of field goals here to help keep this game UNDER the number.  And it's not like Patrick Mahomes is going to be 100%.  I don't think the concussion will affect him, but that foot injury clearly had him hobbled and I don't think he is going to have the same mobility he normally does.  The Chiefs give up just 22.3 PPG on the season and the Bills give up 17.1 PPG in their last 8 contests.  This Buffalo defense stepping up is just as big a reason for their success as Josh Allen is here down the stretch.  They held the Ravens to 3 points last week.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 matchups.  It's going to be cold and windy in Kansas City Sunday night.  Take the UNDER.

7* NFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Green Bay Packers -3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 7 straight games all by 7 points or more.  They have won those games by an average of nearly 15 PPG.  I think we are getting the Packers cheap as only 3-point home favorites against the Bucs in the NFC Championship Game.  The Bucs will be on the road for the 3rd straight week, and teams in this situation haven't fared well.  The Packers are still very fresh after getting that bye and haven't had to leave home.  They made easy work of the Rams in a 32-18 victory.  They outgained the Rams by 240 yards in that game and put up 484 yards against what was thought to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bucs struggled to move the ball against the Saints and the Packers have a good pass defense.  The Bucs benefited from a +4 turnover differential against the Saints, who basically gave that game away after having a 20-13 lead in the second half, getting outscored 17-0 the rest the way.  The Bucs scored 21 points off turnovers.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over.  He has 50 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions this year.  The Packers have won 8 of their 9 home games this year with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.   They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Green Bay.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs want to avenge their 2 regular season losses to the Saints.  They turned the ball over too often and did not play well at all.  But they have been a completely different team since those first 2 matchups.  The Bucs have won 5 straight and are scoring 35.8 PPG during this streak.  They just put up 507 yards against an elite Washington defense last week.  And you know Tom Brady will make the proper adjustments that will allow their offense to have success against the Saints the 3rd time he faces them here.  The Bucs also get good news with LB Devin White returning from a COVID absence against Washington.  He is their best defensive player with 140 tackles and 18 of those coming for loss, including 9 sacks.  The Bucs will avenge those 2 defeats with an upset victory Sunday night.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Key: Andy Reid has a proven track record of being the best coach in the NFL to back off a bye.  The Chiefs needed a bye as they just seemed to be going through the motions down the stretch.  Now they will turn the switch on and put their best foot forward in the playoffs.  And that will be enough to put away the Cleveland Browns by double-digits.  The Browns had everything go their way against the Steelers by forcing 5 turnovers.  They still gave up 37 points and 553 total yards.  They gave up 47 points to Baltimore and 35 points to Tennessee recently.  The Chiefs will do whatever they want to against this soft Cleveland defense.  And I don't trust Baker Mayfield to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Browns are 1-10 ATS int heir last 11 road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent.  Cleveland is 9-26-2 ATS in its last 37 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

6* Ravens/Bills AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 50

The Key: Temperatures will be in the 20s with wind and a chance of snow in Buffalo Saturday night.  Points will be hard to come by.  Both of these defenses are playing tremendous football down the stretch.  The Bills are giving up 19.1 PPG in their last 7 games.  The Ravens have yielded 19 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games overall, including 14 points or fewer in 4 straight.  And the Ravens like to control the ball with their running game, which chews clock and helps the UNDER.  They average 35 rushing attempts and just 25 passing attempts per game.  Baltimore is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games off 3 consecutive covers as a favorite.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 matchups.  Take the UNDER.

7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Cleveland Browns last week even with resting their starters.  They lost 22-24 but gained 394 yards with a backup QB.  They were a failed 2-point conversion from forcing OT.  Now the Steelers have their starters back and will win and cover in the rematch similar to when they beat the Browns 38-7 at home earlier this year.  Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all-time against Cleveland and has never lost to them at home.  The Steelers are now 26-2 SU & 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 home matchups with Cleveland.  The Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID, and he is their play-caller on offense.  It's a huge loss.  The Browns are 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Bears/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Chicago +10.5

The Key: The Bears go from being 4.5-point dogs to the Packers last week to 10.5-point dogs to the Saints.  The Packers just have their number, but they were competitive in their other 14 games this season.  And they will be competitive against the Saints as they continue playing their best football of the season down the stretch.  The Bears have scored 30.2 PPG and averaged 382.2 YPG in their last 6 games, all of which have come with Trubisky as their starter.  They still have a great defense that allows 344.1 YPG.  The Saints are getting too much respect from their 33-7 win over the Panthers in Week 17 in which the Panthers turned the ball over 5 times, including a couple INT in the end zone.  The Bears only lost 23-26 (OT) as 5-point dogs in their first matchup with the Saints this year and now are getting 10.5 points in the rematch.  The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff home games.  Teams in the wild card round with a .500 record or worse are 7-0 ATS since 2004 while winning 6 of those games outright.  Take Chicago.

6* Rams/Seahawks NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Rams were 3-point favorites in their first matchup with the Seahawks in which they won 23-16 at home.  And they were only 1.5-point dogs in their second matchup in which they lost 9-20 in Seattle.  Now they are 3.5-point dogs in the playoffs.  That's a 6.5-point adjustment from that first matchup and a 2-point adjustment from the 2nd.  The price is right to back the Rams here.  They have a Super Bowl defense and should get Jared Goff back.  Even if they somehow don't, John Wolford proved he could lead the offense with a huge win in a must-win Week 17 game.  The Rams beat the Cardinals 18-7 and outgained them by 119 yards while holding them to just 214 yards.  They also outgained the Seahawks by 56 yards in their first matchup and by 42 yards in their 2nd matchup this year.  The Rams are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against NFC opponents.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 against a team with a winning record.  The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off a win.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Washington/Philadelphia NFC East *CA$H COW* on Washington -3.5

The Key: Washington is expected to have its top 3 weapons on offense back this week in QB Alex Smith, WR Terry McClaurin and RB Antonio Gibson.  That is going to make all the difference in this game as Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter since he came to Washington and 6-26 without him.  The Eagles are missing several guys in the secondary, plus Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett and Shaun Bradley up front.  They are also without DeSean Jackson, Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert on offense.  Washington will be able to move the ball and score points on a soft Philadelphia defense that has yielded over 500 yards in 2 consecutive games.  And this elite Washington defense that has yielded 20 points or fewer in 6 straight games will make life hell on Jalen Hurts.  Washington is on a mission to win the NFC East, while Philadelphia has officially been eliminated from playoff contention after a bad 17-37 loss at Dallas last week.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a road loss as a favorite.  Take Washington.

6* Cardinals/Rams NFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +3

The Key: The Rams went from being 4-point favorites to 3-point underdogs with the news that Jared Goff would miss this game with a thumb injury.  He is not worth 7 points to this team.  In fact, Goff is the player that is holding them back from reaching their full potential.  Of course he is better than backup John Wolford, but Sean McVey is a genius and will have the right game plan to put the former Wake Forest product in a good position to be successful.  And McVey owns the Cardinals as the Rams are 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Los Angeles has won those 7 games by an average of 21.3 PPG.  That includes their 38-28 win earlier this season that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Rams outgained the Cardinals 463 to 232 in that contest.  And Kyler Murray will be playing through a leg injury he suffered in a bad 12-20 loss to the 49ers last week.  The Cardinals were outgained by 2.8 YPP in that game as they averaged just 4.4 YPP on offense and gave up 7.2 YPP on defense.  And that was against a terrible, banged up 49ers team that was playing with a 3rd-string QB in CJ Beathard.  The 49ers had lost 6 of their previous 7 games coming in.  The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  The Rams are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games off an ATS loss, and 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a SU loss.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +3

The Key: The Jets have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL to back down the stretch.  They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have pulled off 2 straight upsets over the Rams as 17.5-point dogs and Browns as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they would love to get revenge from a 27-30 loss to the Patriots in their first matchup this season.  The Patriots are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, getting outscored a combined 24-84 in the process.  They haven't even been competitive.  If they were going to show something it would have been against the Bills on Monday Night Football last week.  Instead they rolled over and lost 9-38.  Their offense is broken as they have been held to either 12 points or fewer or 291 yards or fewer in 5 straight games coming in.  They are missing several key contributors on both sides of the football.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Oregon/Iowa State NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58.5

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and certainly one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12.  They have held their last 4 opponents to an average of just 13.3 PPG which is extremely impressive when you consider 2 of those teams were Oklahoma and Texas.  Now they will shut down an Oregon offense that was just held to 243 total yards by a bad USC defense.  They were also held to 17 points by Cal the week before.  I think Oregon's defense is good enough to limit Iowa State here as well.  The Ducks have held 3 of their 6 opponents this season to 24 points or fewer.  The UNDER is 9-0-1 in Iowa State's last 10 neutral site games, including 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  The UNDER is 36-14-2 in Cyclones last 52 games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Cyclones last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

6* Kentucky/NC State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -2.5

The Key: We'll side with the SEC over the ACC in this bowl game.  It has been a bad look for the ACC so far with Miami losing to Oklahoma State and Wake Forest losing to Wisconsin.  And we know that Kentucky played a much tougher schedule in the SEC than NC State did in the ACC.  The Wildcats only went 4-6, but the 6 losses came to teams that were .500 or better with the exception of Ole Miss, who was 4-5 and gave Alabama all they could handle.  And 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the SEC in Alabama, Florida and Georgia.  NC State is a team the Wildcats can handle.  NC State is a fraudulent 8-3.  They only beat one Power 5 team with a winning record, which was 6-5 Pittsburgh.  They struggled winning their final 3 games over the season over Liberty, Syracuse and Georgia Tech as all 3 games were decided by 10 points or fewer.  Kentucky's strength of schedule was 21st while NC State's was 65th.  The Wildcats are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 bowl games under Mark Stoops with 2 upset victories over Penn State and VA Tech as well as a 1-point loss to Northwestern as a 7-point dog.  This is a senior-led team that will want to post their 3rd straight bowl win and go out as one of the most accomplished classes in program history.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  NC State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against good rushing teams that average 4.75 YPC or more.  The Wildcats will have the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball with a big talent advantage in the trenches.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off a conference home win.  Take Kentucky.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* Bills/Patriots MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7

The Key: The Bills have a lot to play for.  They can be the first team to sweep the season series with the Patriots in 19 years.  And they can grab a stranglehold on the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win here over the Patriots.  They want to keep their momentum going, too.  The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss coming on that hail mary against Arizona.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as well with 5 wins by 10 points or more.  They are scoring 34.8 PPG in their last 6 games and giving up just 18.8 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Patriots are averaging just 248 YPG in their last 4 games as their offense has held them back all season.  Their best defensive player in CB Stephon Gilmore just went out with a season-ending injury against the Dolphins last week in their 22-12 loss.  They won't have him to match up with Stefon Diggs now, who is having a monster season in his first year in Buffalo.  There's just nothing to like about the Patriots right now, and there's everything to like about the Bills, who may be the best team in the AFC.  Take Buffalo.

6* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle -1

The Key: The Seahawks have a chance to clinch the NFC West with a win Sunday over the Los Angeles Rams.  And it just comes down to me trusting Russell Wilson in this spot a lot more than Jared Goff.  Plus the Seahawks want revenge from a 16-23 road loss to the Rams in their first matchup.  But that was a great spot for the Rams off their bye week.  Now the playing field is leveled in the rematch, and plus the Seahawks are at home now.  While the Rams' defense gets all the headlines, it's the Seahawks defense that is improving as much as any unit in the NFL down the stretch.  It started at halftime of that first meeting with the Rams.  Seattle held Los Angeles to 6 points and 114 yards in the second half.  Since that game, the Seahawks have held 3 of their past 5 opponents to under 300 yards, and Arizona's 21 points in Week 11 are the most allowed by Seattle during this stretch.  The Rams will be without RB Cam Akers, who was really coming on strong for them in being their workhorse before the injury.  He has averaged 102 RYPG in his last 3 games and will be missed.  Pete Carroll is 9-2 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games off an ATS loss.  The Seahawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home matchups with the Rams.   Take Seattle.

7* AFC Total of the Year on Broncos/Chargers OVER 47

The Key: This game between Denver and Los Angeles has shootout written all over it.  Neither team has anything to play for.  And both are missing key players on defense.  The Broncos are missing as many as 5 defensive backs plus their best defensive player in LB Bradley Chubb.  We saw what the Bills did to them last week in scoring 48 points and with 352 passing yards and 182 rushing yards.  The Chargers will light up this scoreboard as well.  The Chargers are without their 2 best pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  They give up 27.8 PPG this year, while the Broncos allow 28.2 PPG.  These teams played in a 31-30 shootout in their first matchup in favor of the Broncos with their big comeback victory.  And it should be more of the same here in the rematch given the defensive injuries to both teams.  The Broncos are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games after allowing 40 points or more last game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 8-3 in Chargers last 11 games overall.  Take the OVER.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons +11

The Key: The Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have won all 6 games but all 6 wins came by 6 points or fewer.  Expect more of the same here against the Falcons.  Atlanta has been very competitive under Raheem Morris.  They have only lost once in their last 7 games by more than 5 points.  The Falcons will be hungry to try and take down the defending Super Bowl champs.  That's a big reason the Chiefs can't cover right now is because they always get the opposing teams' best shot.  And the Chiefs seem to just be going through the motions here late in the season with the top seed in the AFC all but locked up.  Take Atlanta.

6* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West *CA$H COW* on Arizona -5

The Key: The 49ers have gone 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games with all 6 wins coming by 8 points or more.  It will be more of the same here against a hungry Cardinals team that is currently in the last spot in the NFC playoffs.  The Cardinals are playing with a sense of urgency right now and have played some of their best football here down the stretch.  They dominated the Giants 26-7 and outgained them by 231 yards 2 weeks ago.  Last week they won and covered in a 33-26 win over the Eagles and outgained them by 104 yards.  Their offense is thriving right now with 458 YPG in those 2 wins.  This offense is back to being dynamic with Murray running the ball again with 21 rush attempts in his last 2 games.  CJ Beathard will get the start for the injury-plagued 49ers.  Beathard is 0-3 as a starter against the Cardinals and 1-9 lifetime as a starter in the NFL.  He's simply not very good.  The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the 49ers.  Take Arizona.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

6* Vikings/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Vikings today now that they have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games.  But the Vikings haven't been playing badly at all like that betting record would suggest.  They have just been favored so many times.  Now they are back in their preferred role of underdog where they have thrived with an upset win over the Packers and a 1-point loss to the Seahawks when they were near touchdown dogs in both of those games.  The Vikings have now won the yardage battle in 7 straight games, meaning they could easily be 7-0 in their last 7 games.  The Saints were just outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs last week and 55 yards by the Eagles 2 weeks ago, both SU losses.  Drew Brees looked terrible in his first start back against the Chiefs.  That final score was much closer than it should have been as the Chiefs had 34 first downs compared to 15 for the Saints.  I don't know how anyone can expect the Saints to get margin here being without 3 of their best receivers in Thomas, Smith and Harris.  The Vikings won't go away because this is an offense that is averaging 407 YPG in their last 7 games.  The Vikings are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 14-3 ATS under Zimmer off 2 or more consecutive losses.  Take Minnesota.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Steelers/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +14.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Bengals tonight after losing 5 straight and failing to cover 4 of their last 5.  They are getting docked a lot more for their recent struggles than the Steelers are.  Keep in mind the Steelers have lost 2 in a row to Washington and Buffalo.  Their injuries on defense and their lack of a running game on offense have held them back in recent weeks.  Plus they have been a tired team with the schedule difficulty as they will now be playing their 4th game in 20 days.  Their offense has been held to 19 points or fewer in 3 straight.  Cincinnati's defense has given up 20 points or fewer in 3 of its last 4.  And the only exception was the 30 points they gave up to Dallas which was aided by 3 fumbles early in the game.  The Cowboys only managed 272 yards against them.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Steelers have bene a double-digit favorite.  They nearly lost outright to the Cowboys in their largest favorite role of -14.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Bengals have been a double-digit underdog.  Oddsmakers know that the public wants nothing to do with the Bengals right now so they are forced to set this number higher than it should be.  The Steelers are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati.

7* 49ers/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: The Cowboys have covered 3 of their last 5 coming in after a 30-7 win at Cincinnati last week.  This is a great price on the Cowboys at home against a 49ers team that doesn't have anything to play for and has been hurt by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL.  That's a big reason why the 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming in.  The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East race and should be the hungrier team.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take Dallas.

6* Seahawks/Washington NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -6.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Seahawks as less than a TD favorite against the Washington Football Team Sunday.  This isn't the same Washington team that pulled 3 straight upsets over the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers.  They are now without starting QB Alex Smith, and it's a huge downgrade to third-stringer Dwayne Haskins as we saw early in the season when he got the starting nod.  They are also without their best player on offense in RB Antonio Gibson.  While Washington does have a good defense and can limit Seattle, it's too much of a burden on them here.  Washington isn't going to be able to move the ball and score consistently against an improving Seattle defense that has allowed 23 or fewer points in 5 straight games, including 17 or less in 3 straight.  This simply has blowout written all over it with the injuries to Washington on offense.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Seattle.

6* Jaguars/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +13

The Key: Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best quarterback and will be returning to start for them this week.  The Jaguars have still gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and have been very competitive.  Now Minshew should give them a spark at the QB position.  The Ravens have to be tired playing their 4th game in 19 days here.  And they are coming off a 47-42 shootout victory over the Browns on Monday Night Football.  It's a letdown spot and they are fatigued.  Their defense gave up 493 yards to the Browns, so the back door is going to be open for the Jaguars if we need it against this Ravens defense.  The Jaguars have topped 350 total yards in 3 consecutive games coming in and can move the ball and score points.  Bets on road dogs or PK who are on an 8-plus game losing streak against an opponent that's off 2 or more consecutive wins are 21-3 ATS since 1983.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Panthers/Packers NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 51.5

The Key: The conditions are going to be favorable for scoring in Green Bay tonight, which is rare for December.  Almost zero winds and temps in the 30s.  And both of these teams are built for OVERS.  The Packers average 31.5 PPG this year as Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season, leading the NFL with 39 TD passes and only 4 INT.  But the Packers do give up 24.8 PPG.  Joe Brady has turned this Carolina offense into a really good unit this season.  And Teddy Bridgewater gets back his favorite target in D.J. Moore after he missed last game.  Moore has 50 receptions and 924 receiving yards this season.  The Panthers average 23.6 PPG and are capable of hanging a big number on the Packers.  But they give up 25.5 PPG and 69.2% completions to opposing QB's.  Bridgewater is going to have to try and keep up with the Packers in a shootout here because this Carolina defense is going to struggle to stop the Packers.  The OVER is 42-20-2 in Panthers last 64 against a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 25-11 in Panthers last 36 games as road dogs.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

6* Ole Miss/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss -2.5

The Key: LSU is coming off a shocking 37-34 win over Florida as more than 3-touchdown underdog.  The Gators were clearly looking ahead to their SEC Championship Game against Alabama this week.  And that win has LSU getting too much respect from the books this week.  Ole Miss is in the better situation.  The Rebels haven't played in 3 weeks and will be fresh.  They have won 3 in a row coming in and also gave Alabama their stiffest test of the season to flash their potential.  LSU just beat Florida and won't care nearly as much about beating Ole Miss this week because of it.  The situation favors the Rebels.  The Tigers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off an upset win as a road dog.  Take Ole Miss.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +6

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones have saved their best football for last.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall while outscoring their last 5 opponents by a total of 121 points and by an average of 24.2 PPG.  That's why they are getting so much hype in the college football playoff rankings, and deservedly so.  But now they are getting disrespected once again as 6-point dogs to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.  They upset Oklahoma as 7.5-point home dogs, 37-30 in their first matchup this year.  The Cyclones are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 matchups with Oklahoma with an average cover of 16 PPG.  They haven't lost any of the last 5 matchups by more than 10 points, so Matt Campbell clearly has this Oklahoma team figured out.  And it's a Sooners team coming off one of their worst performances of the season.  They managed just 269 total yards in a 27-14 win over Baylor as a 23-point favorite.  They were actually outgained by the awful Bears in that contest.  Iowa State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Cyclones are 11-1 ATS under Campbell against good passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Sooners are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites.  Take Iowa State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers are the better team than the Las Vegas Raiders despite what their records say.  The Chargers are 4-9 this season but outgaining their opponents by nearly 50 YPG, while the Raiders are 7-6 despite getting outgained by nearly 15 YPG.  The Raiders have a soft defense that allows 30.1 PPG on the season and 37.5 PPG over their last 4 contests.  And that defense isn't getting any better with all of their injuries right now, most notably to DE Ferrell and S Abram, who are among at least 4 starters that are out for this game.  The Chargers want to end the Raiders' playoff hopes here.  That would be sweet revenge for a 26-31 loss to the Raiders in their 1st matchup this year in which the Chargers had their game-winning TD overturned on replay on the final play of the game.  The Chargers outgained the Raiders by 120 yards in that contest and had a 26-16 edge in first downs.  Bets against favorites like the Raiders after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 52-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Raiders committed 3 turnovers in their 27-44 loss to the Colts on Sunday and now have 10 turnovers in their last 3 games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +3

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are out to prove that they can beat the Baltimore Ravens.  They want revenge from that 6-38 loss in Week 1 in which things spiraled out of control after a botched fake punt early and 3 turnovers.  The Browns have been a completely different team since.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and now find themselves just one game out of 1st place in the AFC North.  They are the much fresher, healthier team right now than the Ravens as well.  Baltimore will be playing its 3rd game in 12 days due to COVID complications.  They had just 5 days to get ready for the Browns after playing the Cowboys on Tuesday.  Cleveland has had 7 days to get ready for Baltimore.  The Browns are 5-1 SU at home this year.  Baker Mayfield is playing his best football and hasn't thrown an interception since October 25, a span of almost 6 games.  He has 11 TD and zero interceptions since his last pick.  And with Nick Chubb back healthy, the Browns have been monsters on the ground.  They have rushed for 100-plus yards in 5 straight games and an average of 173.3 RYPG in their last 4.  The Ravens have given up 111 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5.  The Browns have been good against the run all season, yielding only 104 RYPG.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Washington +3

The Key: Washington has won 3 straight including upset road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers to get into a tie with the Giants for 1st place in the NFC East.  But they lost both matchups with the Giants so they are essentially a game behind.  They need wins like blood here down the stretch.  The 49ers just lost to the Bills last week to essentially eliminate them from the playoffs.  They are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I don't like their mindset right now, and there's no way they should be favored over Washington this week.  Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL in yielding only 310.9 YPG.  And Alex Smith has provided some stability to their offense.  He led them back from a 14-0 deficit against the Steelers last week to pull the 23-17 upset.  Washington hasn't lost any of its last 7 games by more than 3 points, making for a 7-0 angle back them here.   The 49ers are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

6* Broncos/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3.5

The Key: The situation favors the Carolina Panthers today.  They return from their bye week to face a banged up Broncos team that will be playing for a 9th consecutive week after having an early bye in Week 5.  The Broncos are coming off a tough 16-22 loss to the Chiefs in a game that the Chiefs were flat.  They were more dominant than the score showed as they had 447 total yards against the Broncos.  The Panthers are getting healthier coming off their bye and will have several players available that were in COVID protocol.  The Broncos are getting outscored by 7.9 PPG on the season.  Take Carolina.

6* Chiefs/Dolphins AFC *CA$H COW* on Miami +7

The Key: The Miami Dolphins have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Their defense is one of the best in the league and has what it takes to slow down Patrick Mahomes.  They face a Chiefs team that is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins by 6 points or fewer.  The Chiefs shouldn't be laying 7 points on the road here to Miami.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS at home this year.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining an average of 450 YPG or more in their last 3 games coming in.  Take Miami.

6* Virginia/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia +3.5

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers are clearly trying to make the most of this season.  They have won 4 straight and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  A win here Saturday over rival Virginia Tech would assure that they finish the season with a winning record.  They have wins over UNC, Louisville and Boston College during this stretch and only a 5-point loss at Miami.  Virginia Tech sits at 4-6 and is going the other direction.  The Hokies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They are coming off two straight blowout losses to Pitt by 33 and Clemson by 35.  They haven’t shown much fight in either game and I don’t see them showing up today, either.  The Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against at team that wins 51% to 60% of their games.  The Cavaliers are 11-1-2 ATS int heir last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in their last game.  Take Virginia.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

6* Houston/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5.5

The Key: The Houston Cougars have not played a game in a month and will be rusty here.  They should not be 5.5-point road favorites over the Memphis Tigers.  It has been a down season for Memphis, but they are still 6-3 this year and want to finish the season strong.  Houston is 3-3 with losses to the three best teams they’ve faced all by 17 points or more.  Their 3 wins have come against USF, Navy and Tulane.  Memphis is 4-0 SU in its last 4 matchups with Houston and hasn’t lost to the Cougars by more than 4 points in any of the last 6 matchups.  The Tigers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games against good offensive teams that score 31 PPG or more.  Dana Holgorsen is 6-18 ATS as a head coach coming off a bye week.  The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  Take Memphis.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.

6* Patriots/Rams NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 44.5

The Key: Both the Patriots and Rams have very good defenses.  The Rams give up 20.3 PPG and 291.6 YPG this year.  The Patriots allow 21.3 PPG and 344.6 YPG.  Points will be hard to come by, just as they were in the Super Bowl a few years back when the Patriots won a defensive struggle 13-3 over the Rams.  Bill Belichick knows how to slow down Goff and this Rams offense, and Los Angeles will have no problem stopping the Patriots.  Cam Newton has thrown for a total of just 153 yards in his last 2 games in wins over the Chargers and Cardinals.  The Patriots only had 179 yards against the Cardinals and 291 against the Chargers.  Their offense is really struggling right now.  Both teams have been heavy running teams, which will keep the clock moving.  The Patriots have had 30 or more rush attempts in 5 of their last 6 games overall.  The Rams have had 28 or more rush attempts in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Rams are 7-0 UNDER as a favorite this year.  The Patriots are 7–0 UNDER in their last 7 games after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rams last 5 home games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +7

The Key: Pitt just hasn’t been able to get margin on Georgia Tech in recent matchups.  Their largest win in the last 7 matchups came by 10 points last year against a very bad Georgia Tech team that was in the first season under Geoff Collins trying to switch from the triple-option to a pro style offense.  The previous largest win for Pitt was by 5 points in those 7 matchups.  The Yellow Jackets have improved tremendously this year even though they are just 3-6 on the season.  They have been competitive in a lot more games and have now outgained their last two opponents in Duke by 141 yards and NC State by 15 yards coming into this game.  They face a Pitt team still reeling from a 17-52 loss to Clemson.  And they will give the Panthers a run for their money tonight.  The Panthers just had DE Rashad Weaver and his 7.5 sacks opt out for the rest of the year, which will make life easier on this Georgia Tech offense.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* Cowboys/Ravens NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 45

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens just played in a slug fest with the Steelers in a 14-19 loss.  But they were missing QB Lamar Jackson and several other key players on offense.  Jackson and company return this week, and I think we see this Baltimore offense get back to being elite against a soft Cowboys defense.  The Cowboys allow 32.6 PPG and 382 YPG this year.  Baltimore is also missing several key players on defense still, and the Cowboys should be able to get their offense going with all the weapons they have for Andy Dalton.  They scored 31 points against the Vikings 2 weeks ago before being shut down by a very good Washington defense last time out.  The Ravens have allowed 23 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games overall, including 28 or more 3 times.  Dallas is 8-1 OVER in its last 9 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bets on the OVER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 points off a loss against a division opponent against a team that’s off a road loss to a division opponent are 35-10 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* Washington/Pittsburgh MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7

The Key: Washington is fresh and ready to go after crushing Dallas 41-16 on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday.  They are poised to make a run at the NFC East title.  They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games while not losing once by more than 3 points.  Their defense is absolutely balling, and Alex Smith is making the offense efficient without making many mistakes.  That defense and not turning the ball over gives Washington a chance to beat anyone, even the unbeaten 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.  This may be the worst situation for any team in the NFL.  The Steelers are on only 4 days’ rest after being forced to play the Ravens on Wednesday.  They have to face a Washington team on extra rest, and the injuries and COVID problems are mounting up for Pittsburgh.  They lost LB Bud Dupree against the Ravens and fellow LB Devin Bush was already out.  It’s unknown if DE Tuitt, C Pouncey or RB Conner will be back in time for Monday due to COVID.  And it’s a letdown spot off the big win over the Ravens and with another huge game against the Bills on deck next week.  This just feels like the game the Steelers lose.  But either way getting 7 points with Washington is too much here.  Take Washington.

6* Patriots/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -1.5

The Key: The Patriots may have the coaching advantage here with Belichick over Lynn, and it’s not really even close.  But that is being factored into this spread too much.  The fact of the matter is the Chargers are the better team everywhere and not even Lynn can mess this one up.  The Patriots never should have beaten the Cardinals last week as they were held to 179 total yards including 69 passing yards.  Cam Newton is broken and banged up right now and is questionable to start Sunday.  The Chargers have an elite offense behind Justin Herbert who has led their offense to 25.2 PPG and 397.8 YPG.  And their defense is only allowing 342.9 YPG, so they are outgaining their opponents by roughly 55 YPG this year.  They are much better than their 3-8 record would indicate and that record will have the Chargers showing a lot of value down the stretch here.  The Patriots are getting outgained by 5 YPG on the season and are about where they should be at 5-6.  Lynn is coaching for his job here, and a win over Belichick and the Patriots would got a long way.  The Patriots are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games off an ATS win.  New England is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games off a SU win.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have now failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games.  This line has moved too much because of it, and now the price is right to back the Cardinals.  The Cardinals were favored in this game before the games were played last week.  But now they are 3-point home dogs.  And the only thing that happened was the Rams getting upset as nearly 7-point favorites by the 49ers and the Cardinals getting upset as 1-point favorites against the Patriots.  But the Cardinals should have beaten the Patriots as they lost 17-20 despite holding New England to 179 yards and outgaining them by 119 yards.  The Rams were outgained by 37 yards by the 49ers and turned the ball over 4 times.  They deserved to lose.  Arizona needs this game more as it is one game behind the Rams in the standings.  And I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Cardinals here.  They have played 5 home games this year and haven’t lost once by more than 3 points.  Bets on underdogs or PK who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite that win 51%-60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 30-8 ATS since 1983.  Take Arizona.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Giants/Seahawks UNDER 47.5

The Key: I like that the Seahawks have gotten back to running the football more in recent weeks.  They have taken the pressure off their defense, and it has helped that they got their best RB back in Chris Carson.  They have ran the ball 30-plus times in each of their last two games.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Seattle’s last 3 games with combined scores of 39 points against the Rams, 49 against the Cardinals and 40 against the Eagles.  Their defense is really stepping up in allowing just 317.7 yards per game in their last three games against three pretty good offenses.  Now they face a terrible offense in the Giants who will be without starting QB Daniel Jones.  They now have to turn to backup Colt McCoy, who is no more than a game manager and will help us get this UNDER.  And this is a Giants defense that has been playing great for weeks, allowing 25 or fewer points in six straight games and an average of only 20.0 points per game.  They held the Bengals to 155 total yards last week.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games off an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 against a team with a losing record.  Take the UNDER.

6* SJSU/Hawaii Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State -1.5

The Key: Brent Brennan deserves some love for what he is doing with this San Jose State program.  He is in his 4th season here.  After going 5-7 last year with 3 losses by 3 points or less, the Spartans came out motivated in 2020 to do big things and make a bowl.  They have opened 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS this season.  They beat two very good teams by double-digits with their 17-6 win over Air Force and their 28-17 road win at San Jose State.  Their defense is balling, yielding just 15.3 PPG and 349.3 YPG this year.  Hawaii is just a mediocre team in the Mountain West after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.  Their defense is not good, yielding 29.7 PPG this year.  And that is going to be the difference in this game is SJSU will get key stops while Hawaii will not.  The Spartans have had the last 2 weeks off and will be ready to go Saturday night.  The Warriors are coming off 3 straight huge games against SDSU, Boise and Nevada the last 3 weeks and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  I have to think they are starting to get tired after that gauntlet.  The Spartans want revenge from 4 straight losses in this series, including losses by 2 and 3 points the last 2 years.  They lost in OT 2 years ago and by just 2 points last year.  The Spartans are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as road favorites.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Hawaii.  Take San Jose State.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +13.5

The Key: Illinois QB Brandon Peters played against Nebraska in their last game for the first time since the opener because of COVID-19 issues.  He threw for 205 yards and a touchdown to improve to 7-5 in his career in games he’s able to complete.  The Fighting Illini tried four others at QB in his absence and it did not go well.  Peters makers all the difference for this team.  He led the Illini to a 41-23 win at Nebraska two weeks ago with 490 yards of total offense.  And now the Fighting Illini have had 2 weeks to get ready to face rival Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to get too much respect from the books now as they have won 4 straight since an 0-2 start.  They barely held on to beat that same Nebraska team 26-20 as 12-point home favorites last week.  And now they are in their largest favorite role of the season here as 13.5-point favorites over Illinois.  It’s too much for an Iowa team that isn’t getting very good play at all from first-time starter Spencer Petras.  Iowa only beat Illinois 19-10 as 15-point home favorites last year.  The Illini rushed for 192 yards in that game, and they are 2nd in the Big Ten with 222.4 RYPG this season.  Illinois is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  The Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Illinois.

6* West Virginia/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on UNDER 49.5

The Key: The two best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Saturday when Iowa State hosts West Virginia.  The Mountaineers give up just 17.8 points and 274.0 yards per game this season and have what it takes to slow down the Cyclones.  Iowa State yields just 23.0 PPG and 346.6 YPG this year and has played a gauntlet of a schedule, making their numbers even more impressive.  WVU has yet to face Oklahoma.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Iowa State has limited WVU to fewer than 200 yards of total offense in the past two meetings in this series.  And I think this WVU defense is the best unit that the Cyclones have probably ever faced as they allow just 112 RYPG and 162 PYPG.  Iowa State is 6-0 UNDER in its last 6 games off 3 straight wins.  The Cyclones are 6-0 UNDER in their last 6 games after committing zero turnovers in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Mountaineers last 8 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Cyclones last 28 against. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 21-4-2 in Cyclones last 27 games off a win.  Take the UNDER.

7* Louisiana/Appalachian State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Louisiana +3

The Key: Louisiana is revenge-minded Friday night.  The Rajin’ Cajuns have lost each of their last 7 matchups with Appalachian State, including 4 losses over the last 2 seasons while ending with losses in the Sun Belt Title game.  Louisiana played well enough to win in the rematch last year as they had 513 yards compared to 416 for App State, but lost 38-45.  But now App State has already been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention with their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina, so they won’t be as hungry here as they’d normally be.  I was impressed with Louisiana hanging 70 points on rival Louisiana-Monroe last week, clearly not looking ahead to this game.  And they had the previous week off due to Covid-19 concerns.  So they are still going to be very fresh here.  App State will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  Louisiana is 5-0 SU on the road this year with an outright upset of Iowa State, which is ranked 9th in the playoff rankings.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games against excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Louisiana.

7* LA Tech/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on LA Tech ML +100

The Key: LA Tech went through a gauntlet of a schedule before having the last month off due to Covid-19 problems.  They lost to Marshall by 18, UTSA by 1 and upset UAB by 3 as 12.5-point dogs.  They were improving with each game.  And now they will be ready to play a game for the first time in a month here.  That’s the only reason they aren’t favored is because they have been off for so long.  But North Texas has no business being favored in this game.  They are coming off a 17-49 loos to UTSA in which they gave up 624 total yards to the Roadrunners.  And their defense has been atrocious all season.  The Mean Green give up 41.0 PPG, 535 YPG and 7.0 YPP.  It’s hard to trust a team that cannot stop the run, and the Mean Green yield 244 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS against good passing teams that average 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 years.  The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups at North Texas.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* Ravens/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -10

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are missing too many key pieces to even be competitive today against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are without the likes of Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Pernell McPhee, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Brandon Williams, Nike Boyle, Ronnie Stanley and Calais Campbell.  And they are without several others that aren’t big names like those.  They are having to pull up several players from the practices squad just to be able to play in this game.  And they have really pissed off their rivals here in the Steelers, who won’t have any problem pouring it on the Ravens.  They will be trying to sweep the season series for just the 2nd time in 12 years here in 2020 and will relish the opportunity.  And the Steelers have beaten the Bengals and Jaguars by a combined 50 points the last 2 weeks so they have shown the ability to run it up.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against AFC opponents.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Seahawks/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 49

The Key: It’s going to be over 60 degrees with minimal winds in Philadelphia Monday.  This total is too low for a Seattle team that has one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses.  The Seahawks score 31.8 PPG on offense but give up 28.7 PPG and 435 YPG on defense.  They have the single worst defense in the NFL from a yardage standpoint.  And the Eagles have gotten a lot healthier offensively in recent weeks with several key playmakers returning for Carson Wentz.  He should have one of his best games of the season against this Seattle defense to keep pace with Russell Wilson and company. And the Seahawks get back RB Chris Carson this week, adding to their dynamic offense.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +3

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are looking to avenge their 17-34 loss to the Colts just a two weeks ago.  They led that game 17-13 before a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD directly led to 14 points for the Colts on special teams mistakes.  That was really a 3-point game that turned into a 17-point loss and looks worse than it was.  But the Titans rebounded with a dominant 30-24 win in Baltimore last week in which they gained 423 yards and held the Ravens to just 306 yards.  Derrick Henry became the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher last week, and his job just got a lot easier here with the Colts missing arguably their most important player on defense in DeForest Buckner due to Covid-19.  In fact several players are out for the Colts due to Covid-19, including starting RB Jonathan Taylor.  The Titans are getting healthy at the right time and will be in much better shape to beat the Colts than they were 2 weeks ago.  Philip Rivers is nursing a toe injury, and he’ll be without starting C Ryan Kelly.  NFL teams that won last week after trailing by 11-plus at halftime are 26-38-1 SU & 19-45-1 ATS in their last 65 tries.  The Colts came back from 14 down to beat the Packers last week and will be fatigued.  They also benefited from 4 turnovers by the Packers, which is uncharacteristic for Aaron Rodgers and company.  The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Tennessee.

6* Cardinals/Patriots Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on OVER 49

The Key: It’s going to be good weather in New England for this time of year.  It is expected to be 50 degree temps and little to no wind.  The Cardinals have scored 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games overall.  But they’ve also allowed 28 or more points in each of their last 4 contests.  The Patriots have yielded 24 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games overall.  But their offense has been much better as of late with 20 or more points in 4 straight.  Cam Newton threw for 349 yards on the Texans last week and should be able to keep pace with Kyler Murray in a shootout.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 November games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take the OVER.

6* Chargers/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on OVER 52.5

The Key: The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games overall with at least 57 combined points scored in 6 of those and an average of 60.5 PPG.  Their defense has yielded 28 or more points in all 7 games.  And the Bills will hang a big number on them here after averaging 37 PPG in their last 2 contests.  Both teams are pass-happy which will lead to more clock stoppages as the Chargers are 2nd in the NFL in passing offense while the Bills are 3rd.  And the weather will be good for an OVER with nearly 50 degree temps in Buffalo and little wind today.  Take the OVER.

6* Nevada/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Nevada -7

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 4 times already this season and am 4-0 with them.  They delivered against San Diego State last week, and they’ll deliver again this week against Hawaii.  They’ll be hungry to avenge a fluky 54-3 upset loss to Hawaii last year.  And these teams have already played the same 3 teams this year that shows Nevada is by far the superior team.  Nevada is 3-0 against Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State and has outscored them by a total of 15 points.  Hawaii is 1-2 against those same 3 teams and has been outscored by 42 points total.  Hawaii hasn’t had much of a home-field advantage at all in going 11-27-1 ATS in its last 39 home games.  Take Nevada.

6* LSU/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -14

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies have a legit shot to make the 4-team playoff if they win out.  They are 5-1 this year with their only loss on the road to Alabama.  They have a win over Florida, a fellow playoff contender.  And they are going to need some style points the rest the way.  That’s why I’m not worried about laying 14 points here with the Aggies Saturday against LSU.  The Aggies have had the last 2 weeks off so they’ll be fresh and ready.  LSU played last week and was fortunate to beat Arkansas 27-24.  They ran 91 plays for only 419 yards against Arkansas, an average of just 4.6 YPP.  Arkansas ran just 53 plays for 443 yards against LSU, an average of 8.4 YPP.  The Tigers are now giving up 472.7 YPG and 7.3 YPP defensively this year.  Texas A&M only allows 338.2 YPG and 5.6 YPP defensively.  That’s where the difference lies between these two teams.  Plus Texas A&M has the better offense at 6.7 YPP compared to 5.9 YPP for LSU.  And Texas A&M has played the tougher schedule.  The Aggies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponents by 150 or more yards over the last 3 years.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Louisville/Boston College OVER 54.5

The Key: This total is too low Saturday for 2 good passing offenses like Louisville and Boston College.  Boston College has a great freshman QB in Jurkovec who is completing 60% for 2,355 yards with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this year.  The Eagles are averaging 262 PYPG.  Cunningham is completing 64% for 2,126 yards with 16 TD and 11 INT this year.  The Cardinals average 243 PYPG and 8.4 YPA.  But they also have a great rushing attack to compliment it with 194 RPYG and 5.2 YPA.  Both defenses are sub par as Louisville yields 26.4 PPG and BC gives up 26.9 PPG.  Last year these teams played in an absolute shootout with Louisville winning 41-39 for 80 combined points.  And that has been the norm in this series.  Each of the last 4 matchups have seen 58 or more combined points and 6 of the last 7 have seen 57 or more.  The OVER is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 games as a home favorite.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off a home win.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off an ATS win.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

The Key: Louisiana-Lafayette had 33 players on coronavirus protocol last week and had their game cancelled.  Head coach Billy Napier came down with it as well and hasn’t been able to be at practice all week.  This team should not be laying 28.5 points in a rivalry game against Louisiana-Monroe.  They haven’t won a single game by more than 28 points this year, and Monroe has only 2 losses by more than 25 points this year.  6 of the last 7 matchups were decided by a single score, including only a 31-30 win by Louisiana last year as a 20.5-point favorite.  And Louisiana has their huge game with Appalachian State on deck next week so this just screams flat spot for them this week.  The dog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

6* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Maryland +12

The Key: The Maryland Terrapins bounced back from their ugly loss to Northwestern with two shocking upsets of Minnesota as a 17.5-point underdog and Penn State as a 27.5-point underdog.  Tualia Tagovailoa, the brother of Miami Dolphins QB Too Tagovailoa, has lived up to the hype the past 2 games.  He has thrown for a combined 676 yards with 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception in those 2 victories.  And this offense should do what it wants against an Indiana defense that gave up 42 points and 607 yards to Ohio State last week.  That makes this a letdown spot for the Hoosiers after playing Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS this season and oddsmakers are giving them too much respect this week now as a double-digit favorite over a live underdog like Maryland.  Each of the last 4 matchups between these teams were decided by 6 points or fewer and I could easily see that happening for a 5th straight year here.  Take Maryland.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State +14

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are a team on the rise in the Pac-12.  They went 5-7 last year but had 3 losses by 3 points or fewer.  And this year they brought back 14 starters.  They are just 1-2, but the losses came by 10 points to Washington State and only by 6 to Washington.  They beat Cal last week and believe they are good enough to beat Oregon.  I like the price here on Oregon State catching 14 points considering they only lost by 14 to a much better Oregon team last year.  This Oregon team is 3-0 but not as good as last year.  They barely got by UCLA 38-35 last week as 18.5-point favorites and were outgained by the Bruins in the win.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  The Beavers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games following a home game.  Take Oregon State.

6* Washington/Dallas NFC East *CA$H COW* on Washington +3

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Washington Football Team is clearly better than Dallas and proved it a few weeks back in a 25-3 victory over the Cowboys, who started Andy Dalton in that game.  They outgained the Cowboys by 255 yards and held them to just 142 yards in the win.  Washington has now outgained 5 straight opponents by an average of 110 YPG.  They have an elite defense and that is going to be the difference in this game.  Alex Smith can manage the offense and has shown he can move the ball down the field when he needs to as he has thrown for nearly 900 yards in the past 3 games.  The Cowboys go from being 14-point dogs to the Steelers to 7-point dogs to the Vikings to now 3-point favorites this week.  I cashed in the Cowboys as my NFC Game of the Year last week over Minnesota, but this is too big of an adjustment, and now it’s time to go against them this week.  The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

7* Rams/Bucs MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rolling offensively this season.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and coming off a 46-point, 544-yard effort against the Panthers last week in which they did not have to punt once.  The Rams will offer more resistance defensively than the Panthers did, but the Bucs are going to get their points.  And Jared Goff and company are going to have to try and keep up.  The Rams have actually been their best offensively on the road this year.  They are scoring 26.4 PPG and averaging 427.6 YPG on the highway.  Bets on the OVER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 a good passing team (6.7-7.3 YPA) against a good passing defense (5.3-5.9 YPA) after 8 or more games after gaining 8 or more YPA last game are 29-7 since 1983.  The OVER is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-1 in Bucs last 7 games as home favorites.  It’s expected to be 72 degrees with less than 10 MPH winds Monday night in Tampa Bay.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Dallas Cowboys +7.5

The Key: The Cowboys have been much more competitive in their last 2 games against the Eagles and Steelers.  And now they have a bye week to get ready for the Minnesota Vikings.  They still have a shot to win the NFC East because the division has been so poor, so look for them to be revived off their bye week.  The Vikings are on a short week after playing the Bears Monday night.  So the situation really favors the Cowboys, and I like the price with them catching more than a touchdown.  There’s a good chance Andy Dalton returns at quarterback and either way they’ll be fine as Garrett Gilbert played well against the Steelers.  Bets against home favorites after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  Take Dallas.

6* Packers/Colts Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Green Bay +3

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Packers as road underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a shaky performance against the Jaguars that looked closer than it really was.  The Packers only won 24-20 despite outgaining the Jaguars by 135 yards.  The Colts are also coming off a misleading 34-17 win over the Titans last week in which they trailed at halftime, but they got a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD that set up 2 quick scores in the 2nd half.  I’ll take Aaron Rodgers over Philip Rivers all day.  And Rodgers gets one of his top weapons back this week in Alan Lazard from an abdominal injury.  Bets against home favorites after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in 3 straight games are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Packers are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.

6* Dolphins/Broncos AFC *CA$H COW* on Miami -3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  This team just keeps flying under the radar and hasn’t missed a beat with Tua at quarterback.  They’ve beaten 2 of the better teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and Rams with Tua while also making easy work of the Chargers last week.  And now they face a struggling Denver Broncos team that has trailed by 21 or more points in 4 straight games coming in.  The Broncos have issues at quarterback and on defense.  Drew Lock has been a bust and a turnover machine, and their defense has yielded 36 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Broncos have yielded 26 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games overall.  Bets on any team like Miami that committed 1 or fewer turnovers last game against a team that had a turnover margin of -3 or worse last game are 72-37 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Miami.

6* AFC *Total* Annihilator on Jets/Chargers OVER 46.5

The Key: The Chargers are an OVER bettors’ dream.  They are 6-0 OVER in their last 6 games overall and all 6 games have seen 50 or more combined points and an average of 60.3 PPG.  This 46.5-point total is just too low here.  The Jets scored 27 points against the Patriots and now have a bye week to game plan for the Chargers.  The Chargers have allowed 29 or more points in each of their last 6 contests.   Bets on the OVER on any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games, in a game involving 2 terrible teams that win 25% or less of their games on the season are 53-23 over the last 10 years.  The Jets are 12-4 OVER in in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last 6 games against a poor pass defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or worse.  Take the OVER.

6* NFL Non-Conference *Total* Annihilator on Bengals/Washington OVER 46.5

The Key: Sunday’s forecast looks ripe for scoring in Washington with nearly 60 degree temps and almost zero wind.  Washington has gotten its offense going behind Alex Smith, who has had 2 straight 300-yard games and a total of 715 passing yards in his last 2 contests.  And the Bengals don’t offer much resistance defensively as they give up 27.8 PPG this year.  The Bengals have scored 30 or more points in 4 of their last 8 games and Joe Burrow is having a great rookie season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 games off a loss.  Bets on the OVER on any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games, in a game involving 2 terrible teams that win 25% or less of their games on the season are 53-23 over the last 10 years.  Take the OVER.

6* Liberty/NC State Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +5.5

The Key: The Liberty Flames are a legit 7-0 team and Hugh Freeze might be the single most underrated head coach in the country.  Freeze is now 60-35 ATS as a head coach taking back to his time at Ole Miss after opening up 6-1 ATS this season.  The Flames are outgaining opponents by nearly 200 YPG this year and just upset Virginia Tech in ACC play a few weeks back.  And now they step down in competition here against NC State and one again find themselves as dogs when they should be favorites.  Liberty QB Malik Willis is one of the best QB’s in the country.  He is completing 67.8% with 15 TD’s and only 1 INT along with 700 rushing yards, 9 TD and 7.1 YPR on the ground.  He leads a balanced offensive attack that averages 255 RYPG and 255 PYPG.  That’s bad news for an NC State defense that yields 33.9 PPG, 456.5 YPG and 178 RYPG.  Dave Doeren is 0-8 ATS against good rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG as the coach of NC State.  The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  NC State is 0-6 ATS off a conference home win over the last 3 years.  Take Liberty.

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Rice +2

The Key: Both Rice and North Texas have had COVID problems this year which has seen Rice play just 2 games and North Texas play just 3 games.  But we’ve seen enough of a sample size to know that Rice is the better team.  And that was evident with their common opponent in Southern Miss.  Rice crushed Southern Miss 30-6 on the road while North Texas lost to that same team 31-41 at home.  Not to mention North Texas also lost 21-49 at home to a bad Charlotte team.  It’s an experienced Rice team that returned 17 starters this year.  And it’s one that should not be a dog to a North Texas team that they also upset last year 20-14 at home.  They had 19 first downs compared to just 10 first downs for North Texas in that game.  Rice is a running team that will be able to run the ball at will against a North Texas defense that is yielding 243 RYPG and 5.6 YPC.  And North Texas hasn’t played a game since October 17th so it will have been off for more than a month coming into this game.  That can’t be a good thing.  North Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a win.  Rice is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Take Rice.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

7* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -3

The Key: The Seahawks will be extra hungry tonight after losing 3 of their last 4 following that 5-0 start.  One of those losses was to the Cardinals in overtime back on October 25th. And all 3 losses were on the road.  The Seahawks are back home now where they are 4-0 this year.  And with the division title possibly on the line here, I think we get the best version of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.  The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in 3 straight games and a lot of that has to do with losing their best defender in DE Chandler Jones to injury.  Seattle is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Pete Carroll has gone 12-2 ATS after 2 or more straight losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Bets against dogs or PK who went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games, in division games are 35-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

6* Tulane/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -5.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU in a bad spot, but now they came back from their bye week and beat SMU 28-24 last week.  And that bye week is key as the Golden Hurricane will now be playing just their 2nd game in 3 weeks so they should be the fresher team.  The Tulane Green Wave will be playing 7 straight weeks here and are on a short week to boot.  Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by nearly 100 yards combined while Tulane was outgained by over 500 yards by SMU and UFC combined.  The Golden Hurricane are clearly the better team here and it will show on the scoreboard Thursday night.  Take Tulsa.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +3

The Key: The Chicago Bears are hungry for a win coming off 3 straight losses.  Those 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints, Rams and Titans.  Now they take a step down in competition here against the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings.  This is a very bad Vikings defense that yields 29.3 PPG and 413 YPG.  And while the Minnesota offense has put up good numbers this year, it has come against awful defenses outside the Colts, who they only managed 11 points against.  And the Bears are the Vikings’ kryptonite.  Chicago only gives up 21.1 PPG and 335 YPG this year.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Vikings while yielding only 16.3 PPG in those 6 contests.  They have won the last 4 outright.  Take Chicago.

6* Ravens/Patriots AFC *BAILOUT* on Baltimore -7

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2 this season with their 2 losses coming to arguably the 2 best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Chiefs.  Their 6 wins have come by 17.2 PPG this year so they are blowing out the teams they are supposed to.  And they should blow out the awful Patriots tonight.  New England has lost 4 of its last 5 with its only win coming on a last-second field goal over the Jets on Monday night.  Now the Patriots are on a short week with less time to prepare to try and stop Lamar Jackson and company.  That’s a huge disadvantage.  The Ravens should be able to run wild on this soft Patriots defense and name their score.  The Patriots are really lacking weapons on offense this season, and Cam Newton has been terrible.  New England QB’s have just 3 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions this year which is awful in today’s NFL.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 years.  The Patriots are 0-6 ATS against good rushing teams that average 130 or more RYPG over the last 2 years.  Take Baltimore.

6* Bills/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona -2.5

The Key: I like the situation for the Cardinals this week.  They were a little fat and happy coming into their bye week off their big win over the Seahawks the week prior.  And they laid an egg in an upset loss to the underrated Miami Dolphins last week.  They will be back focused this week.  Now they catch a fat and happy Bills team coming off an upset win of their own over the Seahawks.  That came after beating their biggest rivals in the Patriots the week prior.  They have a bye on deck next week and I think they could be looking ahead to it and not giving the Cardinals the proper attention they deserve.  This is a Cardinals offense that has put up 30-plus points in 4 straight and one that can out-duel Josh Allen and company.  The Cardinals also have the better defense as they yield only 22.5 PPG this year while Buffalo gives up 25.9 PPG.  The Cardinals are scoring 29.3 PPG while the Bills are scoring 26.9 PPG.  The numbers indicate the Cardinals should be more than 2.5-point home favorites, and the situation dictates it as well.  Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games against poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more YPA.  The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take Arizona.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are off their bye week and getting healthy to make a run in the 2nd half of the season.  They now have 4 playmakers back that they didn’t have before in RB Sanders, WR Jeffery, TE Goedert and WR Raegor.  They also have their 2 best offensive linemen back and healthy now in Johnson and Peters.  They didn’t have any of these guys when they played the Giants the first time.  They still managed to beat the Giants and put up 422 yards on them while limiting the Giants to just 305 yards.  That’s nothing new in this series as the Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last 8 matchups with the Giants.      The Giants only have 2 wins all season, and they both came against Washington by a combined 4 points.  And they only beat Washington by 3 last week despite being +5 in turnovers.  The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as home dogs of 7 points or less.  Take Philadelphia.

6* SMU/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -2.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 3-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU last time out, but now they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for SMU coming off a bye week.  SMU has to be a tired team right now as they have played 8 games compared to just 4 for Tulsa.  And now the Mustangs will be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  After getting blown out 13-42 by Cincinnati, they were able to get by 2 bad teams in Temple and Navy the last 2 weeks.  But now this is a big step up in class and likely the 2nd-best team they’ve played all season here in Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane want revenge rom a 37-43 (OT) loss to SMU last year as 12-point dogs.  They blew a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter and have not forgotten.  It’s revenge time here Saturday.  The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games off an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Tulsa.

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5

The Key: Northwestern is starting to get too much love after starting the season 3-0.  Their last 2 wins were fortunate as they were outgained by 20 yards by Iowa in their 21-20 win and outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska in their 21-13 win.  Now they will be playing for a 4th straight week here.  Purdue is rested and ready off a bye week and off 2 straight wins over Iowa and Illinois.  The Boilermakers should not be catching 3.5 points at home here in what I have as a pretty evenly matched game, so the price is right to back the home team.  Purdue is 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 years.  The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  The Wildcats are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites.  Take Purdue.

6* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech -1.5

The Key: The Texas Tech Red Raiders are hungry for a win after 2 straight losses to Oklahoma and TCU after beating a very good West Virginia team at home.  They also took Texas to overtime at home earlier this year after blowing a 15-point lead.  This team has a nice home-field advantage and always has.  Baylor is coming off 4 straight losses after blowing a 21-7 lead to Iowa State last week.  The Bears are an inexperienced team that returned only 9 starters this year and lost a few more due to injury.  Now the Bears will be on the road for the 4th time in 5 games.  And the Bears have had zero success in Lubbock over the years.  Texas Tech is a perfect 9-0 SU in its last 9 home matchups with Baylor.  And we’re getting the Red Raiders at a great price here as only 1.5-point favorites in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  Take Texas Tech.

6* Saturday Sun Belt *Annihilator* on South Alabama +16

The Key: Louisiana is 6-1 SU this season but just 2-5 ATS.  They haven’t been able to put teams away as each of their last 5 wins have come by 10 points or fewer against the likes of Georgia State, Georgia Southern, UAB, Texas State and Arkansas State.  If those teams can play with them, South Alabama certainly can as well.  The Jaguars only lost by 17 to the best team in the Sun Belt last week in Coastal Carolina.  And this has been a very closely-contested series over the years.  Each of the last 6 matchups have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  South Alabama only lost by 10 as 28-point dogs last year and by 10 as 19.5-point dogs the year prior.  And this is an experienced Jaguars team that returned 15 starters this year and has the confidence that they can hang with Louisiana.  The Jaguars are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 conference games.  Take South Alabama.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Colts/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee +1

The Key: The Tennessee Titans have picked up right where they left off last season.  They have gone 6-2 after making it all the way to the AFC Championship last year.  And for some reason this team just keeps flying under the radar.  Ryan Tannehill has played like an MVP since taking over at starting QB, and AJ Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL.  Derrick Henry gets better as the season goes on and will be a big factor for them in the 2nd half of the season here.  The Colts have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL.  Their two toughest games they lost to the Ravens 10-24 at home and the Browns 23-32 on the road.  They also lost to the Jaguars in the opener.  I know the Colts have a great defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired as Philip Rivers just isn’t playing well at all.  Rivers has 10 touchdowns against 7 interceptions on the season.  Tannehill has 19 touchdowns and only 3 picks this year.  Henry has 843 yards and 8 touchdowns in 8 games and is on pace to lead the NFL in rushing.  The Titans are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss to the Steelers, who are 8-0 this year.  Take Tennessee.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

7* Patriots/Jets MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -7

The Key: The New York Jets are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  They are losing by 18 PPG and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or more.  The Patriots still have hope to get back in this division race even after their loss to Buffalo last week.  It’s not like the Bills are playing great right now, and the Patriots had their chance to beat them, only losing by a field goal after Cam Newton fumbled.  The Patriots should get back on the winning track here against the Jets, who they have owned through the years.  That should continue in 2020 with the Jets being easily the worst team in the NFL right now.  Take New England.