11-27-14 |
Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -7 |
Top |
17-34 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 25 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Lions -7 Bottom Line: The Lions lost 34-9 in New England Sunday, but they are an impressive 29-14 ATS after a loss of 21 points or more since 1992. The Bears have responded with back-to-back wins following a 3-game skid, but they are 0-7 ATS all-time under Trestman after winning 2 times in a 3-game span. They have lost by an average of 15.3 points in these 7 contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit. Pound the Lions.
|
11-26-14 |
Golden State Warriors v. Orlando Magic +9 |
|
111-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Magic +9 Bottom Line: I expect the Warriors to show some fatigue tonight. They are playing their 2nd road game in as many nights and their 3rd in 4 nights. The Magic had yesterday off and should be the fresher side. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 1 day of rest and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Orlando, and the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
|
11-26-14 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 |
Top |
103-86 |
Loss |
-107 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves +1.5 Bottom Line: Heavy legs will be an issue for the Bucks as they hit the road, where they are 3-5, after playing at home last night. Minnesota will be very fresh having had the last 3 days off. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Timberwolves are an outstanding 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 versus NBA Central division foes, and they've had plenty of success against Milwaukee, going 23-11 SU & 22-10-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings. The Wolves have won 4 straight in the series and should be able to make it 5 in a row in this advantageous scheduling spot. Pound Minnesota.
|
11-26-14 |
Cleveland State +23 v. Louisville |
|
33-45 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CBB *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Cleveland State +23 Bottom Line: This is a flat spot for Louisville. The Cardinals just defeated Savannah State by 61 points. That same Savannah State team defeated Cleveland State by 4 points 2 days earlier. With that knowledge and a little time off for Thanksgiving after this game, I don't see Louisville being focused enough to cover this number. The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
|
11-25-14 |
Sacramento Kings v. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 203.5 |
Top |
99-89 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Kings/Pelicans UNDER 203.5 Bottom Line: We saw 206 points scored when these teams met last week, but I expect defensive adjustments to be made and this one to come in comfortably under the number. Eric Gordon scored 17 points in that contest but won't be available here. The Kings aren't an overly aggressive defensive team. They prefer to pack it in and force opponents to wind down the shot clock. That bodes very well for us as their approach slows down the game and prevents easy transition opportunities for the opposition. The numbers support this too as the Kings are 17-5 UNDER after 4 straight games of forcing 14 turnovers or less under coach Malone. Rebounding is a big part of unders plays. The Kings are one of the best in the league on the boards and that limits second chance opportunities for their opponents. When the total is 200 or higher for a Tuesday game, playing the UNDER on a team like Sacramento that outrebounds its opponents by an average of 3.0 per game or more has resulted in a 61-29 record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the UNDER.
|
11-25-14 |
Nebraska-Omaha v. Nebraska -15 |
|
67-80 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CBB *BLOOD BATH* on Nebraska -15 Bottom Line: Nebraska Omaha just upset Marquette on the road so there's no chance that Nebraska will be overlooking the Mavericks, especially off a loss at Rhode Island. The Cornhuskers are on a 9-0 ATS run in home games against teams with a winning record. Omaha is 1-11 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that give up 64 ppg or less and has lost to these teams by 19.4 points on average.
|
11-25-14 |
Ohio -3 v. Miami (OH) |
|
24-21 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio -3 Bottom Line: Ohio needs a win tonight to become bowl eligible, and that's enough of a motivator for it to get the job done. Under coach Solich, the Bobcats are 19-9 ATS versus teams with a win percentage of 25% or lower, and they have defeated these opponents by an average of 14.3 points. The Redhawks are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 7.0 ppg or more in the first half - after a game where they combined with an opponent for 60 points or more - has resulted in a 58-28 ATS record since 1992.
|
11-24-14 |
Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -2.5 |
Top |
34-27 |
Loss |
-120 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -2.5 Bottom Line: New Orleans got nothing out of its running game last week, and the result wasn't good. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they tend to be at their best offensively when they have a little more balance than they did against the Bengals. They rushed for just 75 yards in that game and weren't at all satisfied with the result. However, the Saints are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 rushing yards or less. They have bounce back to win by an average of 19.5 points in this spot. The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound New Orleans.
|
11-24-14 |
San Francisco -6.5 v. Hawaii |
|
88-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CBB *BLOOD BATH* on San Francisco -6.5 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Hawaii as it is off a big upset win over Pitt and is playing away from home for the first time this season. The Dons are an impressive 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60%. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. The Dons are 10-2 ATS since 1997 following 2 straight wins of 15 points or more.
|
11-24-14 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 199.5 |
|
114-104 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Blazers/76ers OVER 199.5 Bottom Line: Portland has been playing well defensively, but it will have a difficult time digging in at the defensive end after playing yesterday. It will also be hard for Portland to get up for the lowly 76ers, and defense is typically what suffers most in unmotivated spots. Philly is is 32-16 OVER in home games following a game that went under the total over the last 3 seasons. It is 25-12 OVER in home games played in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 14-3 OVER in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins under coach Stotts.
|
11-23-14 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers +2 |
|
101-94 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 25 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +2 Bottom Line: The Nuggets aren't the same team outside of Denver, going 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. They are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 versus the Western Conference and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Lakers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
|
11-23-14 |
Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants +3.5 |
Top |
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
77 h 2 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +3.5 Bottom Line: This is a problematic spot for Dallas, which is playing a true road game for the first time in over a month and is no doubt already thinking about a Thanksgiving showdown with the Eagles. The Cowboys have had a week off following their overseas trip, and while a bye week can be a good thing this time of year, it can also be a bad thing. I think it's the latter in this case because the Cowboys aren't chomping at the bit to face a team they defeated by double digits Oct. 19. I really think the Giants will treat this game, and their season finale against Philadelphia, like the Super Bowl. The Giants are an impressive 29-17 ATS when out for revenge under coach Coughlin. They are also 16-7 ATS under their coach when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. Dallas is a weak 19-32 ATS when laying points with Romo under center. Playing against road favorites off a win by more than 10 points that allow 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team that gives up 23-27 ppg. Pound the G-Men.
|
11-23-14 |
Golden State Warriors v. Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5 |
|
91-86 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Thunder +8.5 Bottom Line: It will be tough for the Warriors to get up for an OKC team that doesn't have Durant or Westbrook on the court. The Thunder have been competitive at home where they don't have a single loss by more than 7 points. OKC is 60-38 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Brooks and 23-8 ATS under Brooks after having lost 8 or more of its last 10 games.
|
11-23-14 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Boston Celtics +6 |
Top |
94-88 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +6 Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Portland. The Blazers are on a 12-26 ATS slide after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Celtics are 9-1 in the last 10 home meetings in the series. Pound Bean Town.
|
11-23-14 |
Florida Atlantic +15 v. Georgia |
|
61-74 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Florida Atlantic +15 Bottom Line: Georgia is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite under coach Fox. The Bulldogs have lost these games by an average of 1.1 points. The Bulldogs are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus Conference USA.
|
11-23-14 |
Washington Redskins +10 v. San Francisco 49ers |
|
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
73 h 57 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NFC NON-DIVISION *SUREFIRE* on Redskins +10 Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 74-37 ATS record since 1983, provided they are playing a losing team and carry a win percentage of .510 to .600. Washington is a much better football team than it showed last week, and it will be incredibly motivated by that pathetic performance. The 49ers really haven't been a blowout threat this season with just 2 wins by double digits. They have won by more than 10 points just 1 time in their last 9 games.
|
11-23-14 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 |
|
3-19 |
Win
|
100 |
73 h 37 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL LATE AFTERNOON *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Seahawks -6.5 Bottom Line: Look for Seattle's 12th Man to come up big as the Seahawks end Arizona's 6-game win streak. In many ways, this is a must-win game for Seattle so it will be extremely focused. The Seahawks take pride in their home field advantage so last season's home loss to Arizona can't be sitting well. Stanton has performed well, but the Cardinals aren't the same team without Carson Palmer. It catches up with them here. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less and have won these games 18.1 points on average.
|
11-23-14 |
Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 |
|
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
70 h 33 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NFC NORTH *SUREFIRE* on Vikings +10 Bottom Line: Green Bay hasn't been the same force on the road where it is 2-3 and could easily be 1-4. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are 11-1 ATS in home games since 1992 versus teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 ppg or more on the season.
|
11-23-14 |
Detroit Lions +7.5 v. New England Patriots |
|
9-34 |
Loss |
-115 |
70 h 33 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL EARLY *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Lions +7.5 Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to New England's back-to-back-to-back blowout wins over the Bears, Broncos and Colts. The Lions are the best defensive team in the NFL, and I expect their defense to keep them in this game. Playing underdogs or pickems that average 18-23 ppg and are up against a team that averages 27 ppg or more, provided the play on team was held to 9 points or less last game, has resulted in a 38-15 ATS record since 1983. These teams have been underdogs of 7.4 points on average but have lost by just 3.4 points on average.
|
11-22-14 |
New Mexico State v. UTEP -5.5 |
|
76-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on UTEP -5.5 Bottom Line: UTEP lost both of last season's meetings with New Mexico State so it will be highly motivated here. The Miners are a phenomenal 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall, including 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. NM State hasn't defended that well in the early going, which bodes well for us six UTEP is on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams allowing opponents to shoot 45% or better from the field. The Aggies haven't been sharing the ball well either, which is significant because UTEP is on an 8-0 ATS run versus teams averaging 12 assists per game or less.
|
11-22-14 |
Washington Wizards v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 |
Top |
111-100 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +3 Bottom Line: This will be a tough encore for Washington after upsetting Cleveland last night. The Wizards are on a 5-16 ATS slide in road games off an upset win of 10 points or more at home. Kidd has shown he can make proper adjustments and motivate his teams after they take it on the chin. His teams are 13-3 ATS off a road loss of 10 points or more. Pound Milwaukee.
|
11-22-14 |
Cincinnati v. Connecticut +10 |
|
41-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
99 h 33 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR SATURDAY NIGHT *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on UConn +10 Bottom Line: The Huskies shocked Central Florida as an 8-point dog Nov. 1 and are in good position to stun the Bearcats. UConn is 8-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. It has won by an average of 8.0 points in this spot.
|
11-22-14 |
Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 |
|
110-93 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Cavs -3 Bottom Line: LeBron James and company will be extremely motivated after losing a 3rd straight last night. The Raptors kicked Milwaukee last night, but they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Raptors.
|
11-22-14 |
Miami (Fla) v. Virginia +6 |
Top |
13-30 |
Win
|
100 |
98 h 34 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY LETDOWN GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +6 Bottom Line: I see Miami suffering a letdown after last week's crushing defeat to Florida State. Not only did Miami blow a 16-0 lead and an opportunity to knock off the undefeated defending national champs, it lost any chance of an ACC Coastal division title. Playing against road favorites that gave up 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game has resulted in a 50-19 ATS record since 1992 if they average 440 ypg or more on the season and are up against a team that allows 330-390 ypg. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 4-1 ATS this season. Pound Virginia.
|
11-22-14 |
Minnesota v. Nebraska -10 |
|
28-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
91 h 34 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR BIG TEN *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (ESPN) on Nebraska -10 Bottom Line: Playing on teams like Nebraska that average 4.9 yards per rush or more and are matched up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush, provided the play on team gave up 275 rushing yards or more last game, has resulted in a 47-20 ATS record since 1992. The Huskers are 6-0 at home this season and 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus Minnesota. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a defeat greater than 20 points.
|
11-22-14 |
Penn State v. Illinois +6.5 |
Top |
14-16 |
Win
|
100 |
91 h 35 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +6.5 Bottom Line: Penn State is off a 30-13 home win over Temple where it outgained the Owls by 193 yards on the ground. However, the Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 15.5 points in these games. They are also 0-6 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 12.5 points in these games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Fighting Illini.
|
11-21-14 |
San Jose State +14.5 v. Utah State |
Top |
7-41 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Jose State +14.5 Bottom Line: Utah State is getting a little too much respect from odds makers tonight. SJSU hasn't lost by more than 14 points in any of its 6 conference games this season. That's a 6-0 trend I can get behind. The Spartans are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound SJSU.
|
11-21-14 |
Phoenix Suns v. Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 |
|
122-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on 76ers +9.5 Bottom Line: The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Suns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record. Plays on any team off 2 straight double digits losses that is up against a team that is off a game where both it and its opponents scored 90 points or less has resulted in a 46-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons.
|
11-21-14 |
Boston University +30.5 v. Kentucky |
|
65-89 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CBB *SUREFIRE* on Boston +30.5 Bottom Line: After a completely dominant 32-point win over Kansas, there's no way the Wildcats will take Boston U seriously. The Wildcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are 9-26 ATS under coach Cal after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less. The Terriers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 road games.
|
11-20-14 |
Chicago Bulls v. Sacramento Kings -1 |
|
88-103 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Kings -1 Bottom Line: The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Kings and have been obliterated by scores of 121-79 and 99-70 in their last 2 visits to Sacramento. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a cover while the Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS defeat. The Kings have cooled off following a hot start, but their cool off coincided with a 4-game road trip. And, it's not like they've played poorly. They played Memphis to a 1-point game on the road. This is their final home game before 4 more on the road so they'll be looking to finish their 3-game home stand with a winning record. Bet the Kings.
|
11-20-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 |
Top |
20-24 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 47 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Raiders +7.5 Bottom Line: Following a big upset victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, the Chiefs are in a letdown situation, especially with the tendency for them to look ahead to next week's showdown with Denver. Playing against road teams that are coming off an upset victory on their home field, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 106-53 ATS record since 1983. Zooming in, playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home that has a winning record on the season has resulted in a 31-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Raiders.
|
11-20-14 |
North Carolina +6 v. Duke |
|
45-20 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 52 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR ACC *SUREFIRE* on North Carolina +6 Bottom Line: Duke is getting a little too much respect from odds makers against a motivated North Carolina squad that still needs a win to become bowl eligible. I'll gladly take the points in this rivalry game considering the Tar Heels have won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 22 of the last 23 meetings, including 10 straight.
|
11-20-14 |
Kansas State v. West Virginia -2 |
|
26-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
28 h 21 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR BIG 12 *BLOOD BATH* on West Virginia -2 Bottom Line: In a matchup between teams that average 34.0 ppg or more, playing against road underdogs that are off a game where 60 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 53-26 ATS record since 1992. West Virginia is legit. You don't hang with Alabama, beat Baylor and lose to TCU by a single point if you're not. The Mountaineers are not happy about losing their last two, and they're not happy about last season's 35-12 loss to Kansas State. Look for the Mountaineers to bounce back strong on Senior Night.
|
11-20-14 |
Drexel +10 v. Miami (FL) |
|
46-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR CBB *SUREFIRE* on Drexel +10 Bottom Line: Playing against neutral court favorites or pickems that averaged 53 or less shots per game last season and are off a game where they made 50% or more of their 3-point shots has resulted in a 31-7 ATS record since 1997. Plus, this is a letdown spot for Miami following a big win at Florida.
|
11-19-14 |
Bowling Green v. Toledo -6.5 |
|
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Toledo -6.5 Bottom Line: Toledo will be the hungrier team tonight. This is the last home game for the seniors, and the Rockets still have a shot at the MAC West title. Bowling Green has clinched the MAC East so it doesn't have nearly the same level of motivation. Additionally, Toledo has had BG's number. The Rockets have won the last 4 in the series with the 2 home wins during this span coming by double digits. The Falcons are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Toledo.
|
11-19-14 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Brooklyn Nets -6 |
|
122-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA DOUBLE DIGIT *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -6 Bottom Line: Tough spot for the Bucks playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road against a highly motivated team. Brooklyn is 10-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and has won these 10 by 12.4 points on average.
|
11-19-14 |
Phoenix Suns v. Detroit Pistons +3 |
Top |
88-86 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY NBA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK on Pistons +3 Bottom Line: The Pistons are showing exceptional value in the home underdog role as this has been a matchup dominated by the home team. The home squad is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.0 points. Pound the Pistons.
|
11-19-14 |
Charlotte Hornets +2.5 v. Indiana Pacers |
|
86-88 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA BOUNCE-BACK *PUNISHER* on Hornets +2.5 Bottom Line: The Pacers have been a bad play off a big win. They are only 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following a victory. The Hornets were hammered by Dallas last game but are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points.
|
11-18-14 |
New Orleans Pelicans +3 v. Sacramento Kings |
|
106-100 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +3 Bottom Line: Playing underdogs that are outscoring opponents by 3.0 ppg or more on the season and are matched up with a team that is off a close win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 45-21 ATS record the last five seasons. Bet New Orleans.
|
11-18-14 |
Montana +17 v. Boise State |
|
67-72 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
4* Major CBB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Montana +17 Bottom Line: Boise State is being overvalued at home as it so often is. The Broncos went 2-11 ATS as a home favorite or pickem last season and are on a 0-7 ATS skid at home following a game where they covered the spread. Grab the points.
|
11-18-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Ohio +3 |
Top |
21-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio +3 Bottom Line: Playing against road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more that are matched up with a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons if the team we are fading allowed an average of 6.25 yards per play or more last game. The Bobcats are on a perfect 7-0 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750. Pound Ohio.
|
11-18-14 |
UMass v. Akron -7 |
|
6-30 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
4* Major MAC *SUREFIRE* on Akron -7 Bottom Line: Playing home teams 7 games or more into the season that average 3.5 to 4.3 yards per rush and are matched up with a team that averages 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rush has resulted in a 31-8 ATS record since 1992, provided the play on team has been held to 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The home teams have been favored by 7.1 points on average in this situation and have won by an average of 15.9 points. This system has produced a perfect 8-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.
|
11-17-14 |
Louisiana-Lafayette v. Tulsa -7 |
|
53-64 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
4* Major CBB Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Tulsa -7 Bottom Line: Look for Tulsa to be highly motivated after getting upset at Oral Roberts in its opener. The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Lousiana-Lafayette made easy work of an inferior opponent in its opener but is 1-9 ATSĀ in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last 3 seasons. TULSA is also on a 14-5 ATS run as a favorite. Lay the points at the Golden Hurricane take this one by double digits.
|
11-17-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +7 |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
4* Major MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Titans +7 Bottom Line: Playing against a team off a loss against the spread that has a win percentage of 51% to 60% and is matched up against a team with win percentage of 25% or worse has resulted in a 73-37 ATS record since 1983. The Steelers laid an egg in New York last week, and we were all over it as that performance was nothing new. They are only 3-6 in their last 9 contests in the second half of their schedule versus teams with a win percentage below .300. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Tennessee, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
|
11-17-14 |
Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
106-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +12.5 Bottom Line: This is a look-ahead spot for Cleveland, which already has a comfortable win over Denver and has the reigning champs up next. Not only is this a revenge spot for Denver, it's a bounce-back spot after yesterday's 16-point loss at New York. Playing double-digit road dogs off a loss of 15 points or more that are up against a team that has posted a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in a 27-6 ATS record since 1996. Pound the Nuggets.
|
11-16-14 |
Hampton +22 v. Syracuse |
|
47-65 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* on Hampton +22 Bottom Line: The Orange took care of business in their opener with a 47-point win over Kennesaw State but are now being overvalued as a result. The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Grab the points as Hampton keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.
|
11-16-14 |
Denver Nuggets v. New York Knicks -1 |
|
93-109 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Knicks -1 Bottom Line: The Knicks will leave it all on the floor to end their 7-game losing streak. This is their last home game before they hit the road for 2 straight and 5 of 6, and they don't want to bring a losing streak on the road with them. The home team has had the edge in this matchup, going 4-0 in their last 4 and 9-1 in the last 10. Expect this trend to continue.
|
11-16-14 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -2.5 |
|
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 5 m |
Show
|
4* Major NFC North *SUREFIRE* on Bears -2.5 Bottom Line: Look for the Bears to show up after being brutally embarrassed on national TV last Sunday night. Chicago is 13-4 ATS since 1992 following 2 consecutive road defeats. It is 8-0 ATS since 1992 in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Vikings are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
|
11-16-14 |
Denver Broncos v. St. Louis Rams +10.5 |
|
7-22 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 4 m |
Show
|
4* Major Non-Conference *BEST BET* on Rams +10.5 Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for Denver playing a 3rd road game in as many weeks. It hosts the 6-4 Dolphins next week and the tendency will be to look ahead. The Rams didn't play to their ability last week, but I'm expecting them to get a boost from the insertion of Shaun Hill, who is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 home games in the NFL. The Rams are an outstanding 9-1 ATS at home in the 2nd half of the season versus excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 yards per play or more since 1992.
|
11-16-14 |
Houston Texans +3.5 v. Cleveland Browns |
Top |
23-7 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 4 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy AFC *BEST BET* on Texans +3.5 Bottom Line: Look for Cleveland to suffer a letdown after last week's gigantic win over the Bengals. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a losing record. The Texans are making the switch to Mallet at the right time. He's very familiar with Bill O'Brien's offense from their time together in New England, and he's had an extra week to get all the first team snaps. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland and are catching the Browns at a good time.
|
11-16-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. NY Giants +4.5 |
Top |
16-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 4 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +4.5 Bottom Line: Look for San Francisco to suffer a letdown after last Sunday's huge overtime win in New Orleans. Playing against road teams with a winning record that are off an upset victory has resulted in a 262-181 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing on teams that have been beaten by 49 points or more against the spread in their last five games, provided they are playing a conference opponent, has resulted in an 81-44 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Giants have had San Francisco's number and are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings as a result. Pound the Giants.
|
11-15-14 |
Arizona State v. Oregon State +10 |
|
27-35 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 8 m |
Show
|
4* Major CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Oregon State +10 Bottom Line: The Arizona State Sun Devils are in danger of a letdown following a big win over Notre Dame that has entered them in Final 4 talk. I'm not completely sold on the Sun Devils, and winning by double digits at Oregon State is too much to ask. The Beavers are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in the series. They are also 8-0 ATS after giving up 450 or more total yards in 2 straight games since 1992. They have won these eight by an average of 9.7 points.
|
11-15-14 |
Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 v. Dallas Mavericks |
|
117-131 |
Loss |
-106 |
13 h 30 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA Super System *SUREFIRE* on T-wolves +11.5 Bottom Line: The T-wolves fit neatly into a system that has performed exceedingly well. Consider that plays on road teams that average 98-102 ppg have resulted in a 73-32 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are playing a team that allows 98-102 ppg and if they've allowed 100 points or more in 2 straight games. Additionally, the Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 35-16 ATS in the last 51 meetings, and the Timberwolves are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Dallas.
|
11-15-14 |
Florida State v. Miami (Fla) +3 |
|
30-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
51 h 23 m |
Show
|
4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3 Bottom Line: FSU has been playing with fire all season, falling behind early but rallying in the second half. This is where it finally gets burned. Teams headed up by Al Golden are 8-0 ATS lifetime as a home dog of 7 points or less and have won these games by an average of 6.0 points. Golden's squads are also 7-0 ATS at home versus good offensive teams that average 31 or more ppg, 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 10 ppg or more and 7-0 ATS in home game versus teams with a pass completion percentage of 62% or higher. Bet Miami.
|
11-15-14 |
Auburn v. Georgia -2 |
Top |
7-34 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 41 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Georgia -2 Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Auburn after fumbling away a comeback victory and a spot in the football playoff last week. The Bulldogs will have no problem getting up for this one. As you recall, they were gut-punched by Auburn on a tipped 73-yard TD with 25 seconds left last November. 7 games or more into the season, playing against road dogs that average 6.2 yards per play or more and have averaged 525 or more total yards over their last 2 games has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1992, provided they are up against a team that allows 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Georgia.
|
11-15-14 |
Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards -8.5 |
Top |
93-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 0 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Wizards -8.5 Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Orlando, which will be playing for the 4th time in 5 days and the 8th time in 12 days. Washington had 3 days of rest prior to its last game and 2 days of rest prior to this one. It gets 3 more days off after this game so it has no reason to hold anything back. The Wizards won in Orlando by 7 points earlier this season, but that win was the 2nd game of a road back-to-back. This is a much better spot. The Wizards are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the Magic with these wins coming by an average of 9.6 points. The Wizards are also 5-0 in their last 5 home games against the Magic with these victories coming by 14.4 points on average. Pound Washington.
|
11-15-14 |
Utah v. Stanford -8 |
Top |
20-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
49 h 18 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -8 Bottom Line: This is Stanford's last home game of the season, and it will make it count. The Cardinal still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be highly motivated. They should also be the more prepared side with last week off to focus solely on this contest. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after a game where they did not cover. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after playing their last game on the road. Utah has really struggled to stop the run lately, not a good sign considering it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Pound Stanford.
|
11-15-14 |
Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke |
|
17-16 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 22 m |
Show
|
4* Major CFB Early *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +5.5 Bottom Line: Duke has had a nice run, but VA Tech will put more talent on the field Saturday, and that gives it an excellent shot at pulling the upset. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies are 9-1 against Duke with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. They are 4-0 at Duke during this stretch. Grab the points.
|
11-14-14 |
Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 56.5 |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Tulsa/Central Florida UNDER 56.5 Bottom Line: We are getting a very generous number because Tulsa has been over the total in 8 of 9 games this season and Central Florida has finished over the total in 3 of its last 4. The Knights had arguably their worst defensive performance of the season last game, giving up 37 points in a loss at lowly Connecticut. Now home, where they are allowing only 14.5 ppg, and having had all of last week off to focus on Tulsa, I expect to see the Knights turn in one of their best defensive performances of the season. It also works in our favor that Central Florida isn't strong offensively. It ranks 115th in the country with just 330.1 ypg. Tulsa is averaging just 20.5 ppg on the road. So rounding up, we have a range of 15-21 points based on what Central Florida gives up at home and what Tulsa scores on the road. This is significant because the Knights are 25-9 UNDER when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992. I'll bet the under based on this estimated stat trend.
|
11-14-14 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics +6 |
|
122-121 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Celtics +6 Bottom Line: Cleveland is getting too much respect from odds makers. The Cavs really have only 1 quality win on the season, an OT win in Chicago. The Celtics also have a win in Chicago and didn't need extra time to pull it off. Rose wasn't playing when the Celtics beat the Bulls, but this line is still off the mark. Everyone seems to be giving this Cavs team their best shot, and I expect no different tonight. Playing underdogs that average 103 ppg or more that are up against a team that has scored 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 94-51 ATS record the last 5 seasons.
|
11-14-14 |
Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers |
Top |
108-87 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Nuggets +3.5 Bottom Line: Indiana beat Miami in its last game, but it is a very poor 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games following a win. The Pacers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games, 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games versus teams with a losing record and 12-31 ATS in their last 43 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Denver is coming off a pair of double-digit defeats to Portland. However, road teams off 2 straight double-digit defeats are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons if their opponent is coming off a game where both it and its foe scored 90 points or less. This system is 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Denver.
|
11-14-14 |
Minnesota +8 v. Louisville |
|
68-81 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
4* Major CBB Opening Night *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (ESPN) on Minnesota +8 Bottom Line: Minnesota enters the season with tons of confidence and momentum after capturing the NIT championship. Both teams play a similar style, and Minnesota has the veteran guards, seniors Andre Hollins (13.6 points) and DeAndre Mathieu (12.0), to handle Louisville's pressure. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, and the Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big Ten.
|
11-13-14 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 208.5 |
|
99-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout on Nets/Warriors UNDER 208.5 Bottom Line: The Golden State defense wasn't nearly good enough last game against San Antonio, and I expect the Warriors to do something about it. They are 11-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons in home games after allowing 110 points or more last game and have held opponents to an average of just 93.5 points in this spot. Golden State is also 13-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons after a home game where both it and its opponent scored 100 points or more. We have seen only 199.1 total points scored on average in this situation. Bet the UNDER.
|
11-13-14 |
Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -4 |
Top |
9-22 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Thursday Night Football Game of the Year on Dolphins -4 Bottom Line: According to the numbers, and the eye test, Miami is the better team, and it will be extremely hungry after last week's loss to Detroit in the closing seconds. It will draw added motivation from the thumping in received in Buffalo back in September. At Game 8 or later, playing teams like Miami that have outgained their opponent by an average of 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play has resulted in a 59-26 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential, provided the play on team was outgained by 100 yards or more last game. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound Miami.
|
11-13-14 |
East Carolina -1.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
46-54 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
4* Major ESPN2 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on East Carolina -1.5 Bottom Line: The Pirates were stunned at Temple last time out but have had a bye week to regroup, and I fully expect them to respond tonight. They are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. Cincy is 0-8 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
|
11-12-14 |
Ball State +4 v. UMass |
|
10-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 47 m |
Show
|
4* Major MAC Monster on Ball State +4 Bottom Line: Ball State is an unbelievable 43-16 ATS in its last 59 road games, including 15-3 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog of 7 points or less. The Cardinals are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The Cardinals lost 35-21 to Northern Illinois last week in an ugly 5-turnover performance, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
|
11-12-14 |
Detroit Pistons +7 v. Washington Wizards |
Top |
103-107 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 36 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7 Bottom Line: The Pistons are off to a slow start, but they are a talented team and it's only a matter of time before they start clicking. They'll be confident here as they go up against a Washington team they have had a great deal of success against, and I'm not hesitating to take them getting a big number. They are 18-5 in the last 23 meetings. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Pound the Pistons.
|
11-11-14 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois -4.5 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Northern Illinois -4.5 Bottom Line: At home on Senior Night with a chance to move into first place in the MAC West, Northern Illinois will take care of business. The Huskies are 4-0 in their last four against Toledo and 3-0 in their last 3 home meetings in the series. These 3 home wins have come by 31, 35 and 7 points. The Huskies get some additional help tonight from Toledo's banged up QB position. Woodside is questionable and won't be close to 100% if he does play. The Rockets took care of Kent State last week, but they are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win against a conference opponent under coach Campbell. Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight wins in conference play and are up against a team that's off a double-digit road win has resulted in a 42-10 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.
|
11-11-14 |
Orlando Magic +11 v. Toronto Raptors |
|
100-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +11 Bottom Line: Orlando won't have Toronto's full attention tonight. The Raptors have won 8 straight in the series, including a 13-point win Nov. 1 and will be looking ahead to Thursday's showdown with the Bulls as a result. Double-digit dog off 2 or more consecutive overs that average 92-98 ppg and are playing a team that allows 92-98 ppg are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.
|
11-10-14 |
Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
Top |
21-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
58 h 29 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Panthers +7 Bottom Line: The Panthers have suffered through a rough stretch but aren't about to close up shop as they are just a game back in the division entering Week 10. The Panthers played the Thursday game last week so they've had a few extra days to refocus. Mark Sanchez stepped in and did well enough to help the Eagles outlast Houston, but Philly is not better off with him under center. The Eagles will also greatly miss middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans who tore his right Achilles tendon last Sunday. Playing underdogs of 3.5-10 points that have been held to 14 points or fewer in 2 consecutive games has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that have covered the number in 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 142-91 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound the Panthers.
|
11-10-14 |
Atlanta Hawks v. New York Knicks +1.5 |
|
91-85 |
Loss |
-102 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +1.5 Bottom Line: The Knicks lost in Atlanta by 7 points Saturday, but we are catching a good number at home in the rematch. This line is factoring in fatigue for the Knicks, who are playing their 5th game in 7 days, but I don't see it being an issue this early in the season. History supports my opinion. When the line is +3 to -3, teams playing a 5th game in 7 days in the month of November are 64-26 (71%) ATS since 1996. The home team is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings, and the Knicks have won 26 of 34 at home against the Hawks dating back to 1996.
|
11-09-14 |
Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 |
|
92-107 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +3.5 Bottom Line: This is a good spot for the Lakers to pick up their first win of the season. They have had four days to rest their bodies and prepare for the Hornets. I expect LA to be very determined. The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
|
11-09-14 |
Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 |
|
95-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
4* Major Pacific Division *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Suns +1 Bottom Line: The Warriors are 5-0 SU and ATS on the season and are being overvalued by odds makers because of it. Playing against road teams in Sunday that have beaten the spread by 42 points or more in their last 5 games has resulted in a 20-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. The Suns won both home meetings in last season's series, and the home side is 6-1 ATS in the last 7.
|
11-09-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 |
|
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 17 m |
Show
|
4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +6 Bottom Line: The Steelers have looked good in recent weeks with Big Ben playing at a high level, but I expect them to get all they want and more from the Jets. The Steelers are 15-26 ATS in road games following a win under Tomlin. They are 10-19 ATS under Tomlin after a victory of 14 or more points. Additionally, playing underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of 25% or worse that check in off 7 or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 112-67 ATS record since 1983. The Jets are way better than a 1-8 team. They've been close to beating some of the best teams in the league this season and would have had the ball bounced their way a few more times. I like their chances of knocking Pittsburgh off its high horse.
|
11-09-14 |
San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New Orleans Saints |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 17 m |
Show
|
4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +6 Bottom Line: This game means more to the 49ers, who are third in their division. The Saints will be just fine if they lose since no team in the NFC South has a winning record. The Niners are 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh following a stretch of 2 losses in a 3-game span. They have won these 7 by an average of 16.1 points. The Niners are also 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt or more and 7-0 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with no loss by more than 3 points.
|
11-09-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 |
Top |
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 17 m |
Show
|
5* Wiseguy Blowout Game of the Year on Lions -2.5 Bottom Line: Miami has been rolling, but it runs into a buzzsaw in Detroit. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a bye, and I expect the league's top defense to be stout with the extra prep time. The Phins forced 4 turnovers last week and didn't commit one, but they are 1-14 ATS since 1992 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or more. They have lost by an average of 12.4 points in this situation. Additionally, at Game 8 or later backing a team that holds opponents to 14-18 ppg that is up against a team that allows 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 45-19 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Lions.
|
11-08-14 |
Virginia +20.5 v. Florida State |
|
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 40 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR ESPN ATS *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia +20.5 Bottom Line: The Seminoles have been extremely overvalued all season and are just 2-6 ATS as a result. They should be 1-7 ATS as they were very fortunate to cover last week after falling behind 21-0 at Louisville. The Noles have only 1 win by more than 18 points in FBS action this season. Last week's 25-point loss at Georgia Tech doesn't look good for Virginia, but it hadn't lost by more than 8 points prior to that. The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Virginia keeps this one within the number.
|
11-08-14 |
UTEP v. Western Kentucky -7.5 |
Top |
27-35 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 10 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky -7.5 Bottom Line: When UTEP has been deemed an underdog by odds makers, it's been for good reason. The Miners are just 3-11 ATS when catching points under coach Kugler and have lost these games by 20.9 points on average. They are also 1-8 ATS under Kugler in road games falling after the first month of the season, losing these by an average of 28.9 points. Pound WKU.
|
11-08-14 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 |
|
102-106 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Clippers -4 Bottom Line: The Clippers have yet to cover a spread this season, but now is the time to back them. Consider that teams with a win percentage of 51-60% that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are an impressive 71-37 ATS the last 18 years. Doc Rivers wasn't at all happy with how his team performed at Golden State last time out, and he made it well known. The Clippers respect their head coach, and I expect them to answer the bell.
|
11-08-14 |
Michigan v. Northwestern +2 |
Top |
10-9 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 40 m |
Show
|
5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +2 Bottom Line: Michigan handled Indiana last week, but I'm not sold that the Wolverines are back. They are a dismal 1-9 ATS in road games following a home win under coach Brady Hoke and have lost by an average of 8.3 points in these contests. Pound Northwestern.
|
11-08-14 |
Baylor v. Oklahoma -5.5 |
|
48-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 11 m |
Show
|
4* MAJOR BIG 12 *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Oklahoma -5.5 Bottom Line: I really feel Oklahoma is the better team, and it will be lacking no motivation after the beating it was handed at Baylor last season. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference game involving teams that average 34 ppg or more has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record since 1992. Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in weeks 10-13 that are off a win of 35 points or more over a conference opponent are 60-26 ATS since 1992.
|
11-07-14 |
Dallas Mavericks -3.5 v. Utah Jazz |
|
105-82 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Mavs -3.5 Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Utah following Wednesday's buzzer-beating win over the Cavs. Dallas took it on the chin in Portland last night and will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor against a Utah team it defeated 120-102 Oct. 30. Playing against November home dogs off a close home win of 3 points or less has produced a perfect 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.
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11-07-14 |
Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns -5 |
Top |
114-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Suns -5 Bottom Line: The Kings crushed Denver Wednesday but are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Suns lost by double digits to Memphis the same night but are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS at home when the total is between 205 and 209.5 under Hornacek, and they have won these games by 11.0 points on average.
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11-07-14 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 |
|
91-89 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
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4* Major ESPN *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +7.5 Bottom Line: No Durant or Westbrook, but the Thunder still have enough fire power to keep this one within this generous number. The Thunder are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
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11-07-14 |
Utah State v. Wyoming +7.5 |
Top |
20-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wyoming +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Cowboys catching better than a TD at home. They were able to snap a 4-game skid last week with an impressive win at Fresno State. Momentum has meant a lot to Wyoming, which is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points and 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games after outgaining a foe by 175 yards or more. Playing on the road back-to-back weeks is never easy, especially on a short week when the last game was a lengthy trip (Hawaii in this case). To make matters worse the Aggies are on their 4th QB. Utah State handled the Cowboys last season, but that ensures us that Wyoming will be looking for payback. Pound the Cowboys.
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11-07-14 |
Memphis -7 v. Temple |
|
16-13 |
Loss |
-120 |
9 h 20 m |
Show
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4* Major AAC *SYSTEM SUREFIRE* on Memphis -7 Bottom Line: Playing road favorites that have beaten the spread by 49 points or more in their last seven games has resulted in a 46-16 (74%) ATS record over the last 3 seasons. Temple snapped East Carolina's 5-game win streak last week, but it shouldn't have. The Pirates committed five costly turnovers. The fact the Pirates outgained Temple 432-135 tells the real story. Memphis is the more talented team and should take care of business tonight.
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11-06-14 |
Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
|
24-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
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4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Browns +7 Bottom Line: The Browns aren't getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. They have only 1 loss of more than 7 points this season. They have wins over New Orleans and Pittsburgh and lost to Baltimore by only 2 points. Teams have been a phenomenal play with Brian Hoyer under center the past 5 seasons. They are 17-6 ATS with him on the field, including 8-3 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as a road dog. Hoyer is also 8-1 ATS versus teams like the Bengals that give up 20.4-26.4 ppg during this span. The Cincy defense hasn't lived up to expectations, ranking 30th in the NFL with 394.98 ypg allowed. That bodes well for the underdog, which is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
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11-06-14 |
San Antonio Spurs +4 v. Houston Rockets |
|
81-98 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
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4* Major NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Spurs +4 Bottom Line: The Spurs played last night but had 4 days off prior and are playing just their 4th game of the season so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. The Rockets are playing their 6th game overall and 3rd in 4 days so I don't see an advantage for them in terms of fresh legs. Because Houston is undefeated and because it swept the season series last season, I expect the defending champs to get up for this one. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without rest. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
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11-06-14 |
Clemson v. Wake Forest +21 |
Top |
34-20 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wake Forest +21 Bottom Line: Clemson is being overvalued on the road considering it has only 1 win of more than 21 points against FBS competition this season. Wake Forest has just 2 defeats of more than 21 points this season and has put forth some quality efforts when the odds have been stacked against it, going 3-1 ATS as a double-digit dog this season. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite as the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. The Demon Deacons have been smacked by Clemson the past 2 seasons so they'll draw a little added incentive from those defeats. Pound Wake Forest.
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11-05-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Ball State +3.5 |
|
35-21 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
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4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Ball State +3.5 Bottom Line: The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week and 13-5 ATS off a win against a against a conference rival under coach Lembo. NIU stood in Ball State's way of an undefeated record in conference play last season. Look for the Cardinals to have their revenge.
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11-05-14 |
New York Knicks v. Detroit Pistons -4 |
|
95-98 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
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4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -4 Bottom Line: I like the Pistons to finally break into the win column tonight. They've had 3 days to prepare for this game while the Knicks are being asked to play their 2nd game in as many nights. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. The favorite is a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
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11-04-14 |
Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 215 |
Top |
112-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 12 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Lakers UNDER 215 Bottom Line: The Lakers have gone over the total in each of their last 3 games with at least 218 total points scored in each. And, these teams combined for 218 total points when they met last week. Yet, odds makers have set a total 3 points lower, which means they're begging for action on the over. We won't bite. When the total is 210 or higher, playing the UNDER on teams like the Lakers that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has resulted in an 83-43 (66%) record since 1996. Pound the UNDER.
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11-04-14 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Portland Trail Blazers +3 |
|
82-101 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
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4* Major NBA *PUNISHER* on Blazers +3 Bottom Line: Excluding pushes, Portland is 85-56 ATS over its last 141 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less and has only lost by an average of 0.4 points in these contests. The Blazers were 31-10 at home in the regular season last season so they aren't used to losing at home. Sunday's home loss to the Warriors should provide all the motivation they need. Grab the points.
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11-04-14 |
Toledo v. Kent State +14 |
|
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
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4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Kent State +14 Bottom Line: Toledo fits into a negative wagering situation that has been money in the bank. Playing against road teams like Toledo that have a win percentage of 60-80% and have failed to cover the number in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games has resulted in a 67-29 ATS record since 1992. This system has gone 14-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Rockets haven't defeated an FBS opponent by more than 14 points this season because they are soft defensively. Grab the points.
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11-03-14 |
Sacramento Kings v. Denver Nuggets -7 |
|
110-105 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
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4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nuggets -7 Bottom Line: Following consecutive big wins over the Blazers and Clippers, expect a letdown from the Kings in Denver tonight. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. Sacramento is also on a 65-91 ATS slide in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. The Kings are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Denver.
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11-03-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants +3.5 |
Top |
40-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 21 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants +3.5 Bottom Line: The Colts fit into a negative situation that I want no part of. Consider that playing against road favorites that have covered the number 5 or 6 times in a 7-game span has resulted in a 61-30 ATS record since 1983 provided they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% and are matched up against a team that have a losing record. The Giants have been a different team at home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS and could be undefeated (led in the 4th against the 7-1 Cardinals). The Colts haven't been the same team on the road. Outside of an easy win at Jacksonville, they've struggled in their other 3 road games. They were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, trailed Denver 31-10 in the 4th before it called off the dogs and nearly blew a 24-0 lead in Houston. Pound New York.
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11-03-14 |
Houston Rockets v. Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 |
Top |
104-93 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 50 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5 Bottom Line: I like the 76ers at home catching nearly double digits against a Houston team that's riding high from a 3-0 start. With the Heat, Spurs and Warriors this week, the Rockets will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand. Besides, home court has been huge in this matchup with the home side going 6-0 ATS in the last 6. Pound Philly.
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11-02-14 |
Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 |
Top |
95-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
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5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers -3.5 Bottom Line: It looks like the Warriors will again be without David Lee, and it finally hurts them here. Lee will be missed against a Portland team that will expose the Warriors down low with Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman. Bogut is a good interior defender, but he can't handle all these guys on his own, which is basically what is being asked of him tonight. The Blazers should also be the fresher team as they had yesterday off while the Warriors played last night and traveled. Pound Portland.
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11-02-14 |
Charlotte Bobcats +4 v. New York Knicks |
|
93-96 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 33 m |
Show
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4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hornets +4 Bottom Line: The Knicks are getting a little too much respect following their win over Cleveland. New York is on a 3-14 ATS slide at home in the first half of the season while the Hornets are on an 11-2 ATS run in first half of the season road games. Charlotte is coming off a loss in Memphis last night but is on a 27-14 ATS run following defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five after being held to less than 75 points. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York.
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11-02-14 |
San Diego Chargers +2.5 v. Miami Dolphins |
|
0-37 |
Loss |
-100 |
73 h 57 m |
Show
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4* Major NFL False Favorite on Chargers +2.5 Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Chargers have lost their last 2 but those were to a couple of good teams. The loss in Denver was a really tough spot (on the road in a short week). Because the Chargers played the Thursday game last week, they've had 3 extra days to prepare for this battle and the extra time should treat them well. The Chargers are still 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. November road teams that are off a road loss are 70-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bolts.
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