5* BEST BET on 76ers GC -2½ -115

Analysis will be posted shortly

5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +4 -109

I love the value here with Sacramento. The Kings have covered 4 straight out of the All-Star break and clearly are playing with a different sense of urgency than we had seen. I not only like them to cover, but I think they win here outright. 

Memphis is in a bad spot right now. Just when everyone seemed to catch on with how good rookie Ja Morant was, the Grizzlies suffered two massive injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those two are far from big names, but without them Memphis has looked like a bottom feeder. Grizzlies have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS since the break and each of the last 3 came by double-digits.

I also think there's some value here due to Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox showing up as questionable on the injury report. As well as Sacramento playing on no rest after a game last night in OKC. I expect Fox to play. It felt like last night's injury was more made up than anything. Kings are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Take Sacramento! 

5* NBA - Western Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns +7½ -105

I love the value here with Phoenix catching a big number against the Mavs tonight. This is just a really tough spot for Dallas, who were in action last night at Oklahoma City, which concluded a really tough 3-game road trip that started in Portland and also had them playing at Utah Saturday. 

They were able to knock off OKC last night 107-97, but caught a big break with Chris Paul not playing and they got a big lookahead game on Thursday at Houston. It's really asking a lot of Dallas to be at their best in this one. 

Suns can be a dangerous team when they are on and it will definitely help matters that they have been off since Sunday. Phoenix has also been a good bet away from home when getting points. Suns are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road as an underdog. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings in the series with a 5-1 ATS mark in their last 6 games at Dallas. Take Phoenix! 

5* NBA - Southeast Division PLAY OF THE MONTH on Heat -5 -109

Easy play here on Miami laying a short number at home against the Magic. The Heat are dealing with some injuries right now, which is keeping this line a lot lower than it should be.

Butler, Dragic and Nunn are all questionable to play. Dragic and Nunn were held out of their last game, a 117-122 loss at home to the Clippers, while Butler hurt his ankle and wasn't able to return. I think there's a good chance Dragic and/or Nunn return for this one, but even if they don't it's hard to not like Miami in this one. 

That's because the Heat are a ridiculous 20-2 at home this season and to only lose by 5 without all those guys against the Clippers says a lot about the depth of this team. Miami hasn't played since Friday and are 9-1 this season on 2 days of rest. 

Magic are also in a really tough spot. Orlando had to play an emotional game yesterday at home against the Clippers after the news of Kobe Bryants death. This team has gone just 1-6 on no rest this season and there's an added challenge here with how tough it was to play yesterday's game given the horrific news. Take Miami! 

5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics +2½ -110

I love this spot and price with Boston as a home dog against the Lakers. Celtics do have both Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown listed as questionable, but I think there's a good shot both guys could play here. Walker missed Boston's last game with a sore knee, but played 38 minutes and scored 40 points against the Bucks on Thursday (didn't leave the game). Brown has missed the last two with a sprained thumb. 

Lakers also have a big name on the injury report, as Anthony Davis is also questionable. I think it's less likely Davis goes, as he's missed the last 5 (listed as questionable for all 5). Davis was not part of team workouts yesterday, so it's hard seeing them just throwing him out there for this game. 

This is also a huge game for Boston, not only because it's against Lebron and the Lakers, but they are desperate for a win after losing their last 3. Hard to bet against them as a home dog. Celtics are 16-5 at home, 41-25 ATS last 3 seasons as a dog and 12-3 ATS last 15 as a home dog. Take Boston! 

5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -3 -110

Love the value here with the Raptors laying a small number at home against the Spurs. While Toronto likely won't get back Siakam and Gasol until later this week, they will be welcoming back Powell to the mix. 

Regardless of who has been in and out of the lineup, Raptors continue to play at a very high level, especially on the defensive end. Spurs simply can't be trusted on the road with how little defense they play. San Antonio just lost at Memphis and gave up 134 in the process. Spurs are now a mere 5-12 on the road this season, giving up 117 ppg. 

San Antonio is also just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 after giving up 125 or more in their previous game, while Raptors are 16-7 ATS last 23 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Pelicans +3½ -115

I love the value here with New Orleans getting points at home against the Jazz. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Pelicans, who are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best stretch of basketball this year. New Orleans is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The only loss coming by 10-points at the Lakers. 

I get Utah is also playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11, but this is not a good spot. Utah is playing their 3rd and final game of a 3-game road trip and have already secured a winning trip with wins at Chicago and Orlando. 

The other thing to note with the Jazz and their recent run is the majority of these wins have come against bad teams. In fact, only one of the 10 wins in their 10-1 run have come against a team that has a winning record. Take New Orleans! 

5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +7 -105

I love the value here with Sacramento as a big home dog against the Clippers. Kings are going to get up for this one against what many consider to be one of the favorites to win it all. Sacramento is also trying desperately to put an end to their losing streak which is up to 7 games now. 

Thing is the Kings have been so close in a number of these games during their skid. In fact, 5 have been decided by single-digits, including each of the last 4. Clippers are off a ugly 13-point loss at home to Utah and are just 3-4 in their last 7 games. 

I think this will be a tough spot for LA to get up with it being New Year's Eve and them returning home after this game for 4 in a row. Clippers also won't have the services of Beverley and he's a guy that really ignites the energy of this team. 

Kings are 18-8 ATS last 26 after a loss by 6 or more, 12-4 ATS last 16 off a cover and 9-1 ATS last 10 when off a road loss where they covered as a dog. Take Sacramento! 

5* NBA -Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Jazz -9 -110

This is an easy play here on the Jazz, who should have no problem winning by double-digits at home against a depleted Pistons team. Detroit has 4 key contributors who won't suit up for this game in Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, Markieff Morris and Luke Kennard. 

It would have been hard enough for the Pistons to keep this close if they were full strength. They had the services of Griffin in their last game at San Antonio, but still managed to lose that game 136-109. Detroit's only win in their last 7 games is against a bad Wizards team at home. All 6 losses have been by 11 or more points. 

Utah is also coming in playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 7 of their last 8, including a 120-107 win at the Clippers last time out as a 7-point dog. Take Utah! 

5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on 76ers -2½ -110

I think the books have made a huge mistake here with the 76ers basically at a pick'em on the road against the Magic. I get Philadelphia has had their struggles on the road and are coming off a massive win over the Bucks on Christmas Day, but I just don't see them having much trouble with Orlando. 

It would be one thing if the Magic were playing well, but they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games and only covered twice in their last 7 games. Not to mention Orlando is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games in the month of December and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog. 

Another key thing here is revenge. Magic embarrassed the 76ers 112-97 at home back in November. That actually sets up a very profitable system on Philadelphia. Favorites revenging a road loss of 10 or more and off a home win by 10 or more are 62-28 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Philadelphia! 

5* NBA - Christmas Day GAME OF THE YEAR   on 76ers +3½ -105

I absolutely love the value here with Philadelphia as a home dog against the Bucks. As difficult as it may be to bet against Milwaukee right now, I just think the price is too good with the 76ers as a home dog. 

I really think Philadelphia is going to win this game. The 76ers definitely have the talent to go toe to toe with the Bucks, but more importantly they have the size to give Milwaukee trouble. Not to mention the 76ers have one of the league's best home court advantages. Philadelphia is 15-2 SU at home, where they are outscoring teams by 9.7 ppg. 

76ers are 26-9 ATS last 35 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a home dog. Bucks on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Philadelphia! 

5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics -7 -110

I got no problem laying the points with Boston at home against the Pistons. Celtics should have no problem winning here by double-digits against a struggling Detroit team that will not only be without Blake Griffin, but also Luke Kennard and Christian Wood. 

Boston won't have Gordon Hayward but at this point they are accustomed to not having him. They also don't need him to put away this Pistons team. Celtics are also well rested playing just their 2nd game in the last 7 days and coming off a big momentum building win at Dallas where they rallied in the 2nd half for a 109-103 win. 

Pistons have gone 3-14-1 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 1-7-1 ATS last 9 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games (Celtics are 10-1 at home) and 3-8 ATS last 11 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Boston! 

5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Spurs -2½ -106

I absolutely love the value here with the Spurs at basically a pick'em at home against the Nets. This hasn't been anywhere close to the kind of start to the season that most expected for San Antonio and their latest 107-109 loss to Houston, where they blew a 25-point lead, speaks to the season they are having. 

With that said, I do feel like there's some positives with building up a 25-point lead on the road against the Rockets. It could be a sign of them turning the corner. Had they won that would have been 4 out of their last 5. 

With a full 2 days off before this game I think we get a big effort here from the Spurs. As for the Nets, they continue to play well without Kyrie, but a lot of that success has come against bad teams. This is also not an ideal scheduling spot playing on the road for the 3rd time in the last 6 days. 

Spurs are 15-5 ATS last 20 games at home in the month of December and 21-9 ATS last 30 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Celtics -1½ -109

I absolutely love the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at Dallas. The Mavs shocked just about everyone in their last game, as they snapped the Bucks 18-game winning streak in Milwaukee without one of the best players in the league in Luka Doncic. Dallas won the game 120-116 as a 10-point dog. 

Not to take anything away from that win, but you have to think some of that was Milwaukee not giving the Mavs the respect they deserved. They had to think they could just coast and beat Dallas without Doncic. On the flip side the Mavs were highly motivated to show they can win without their star. 

Boston isn't going to make the same mistake here. In fact, the Celtics should be 100% locked in after losing their last two and being fully rested after having the last 5 days off. Boston is 8-2 ATS last 10 times they have played on 4 or more days of rest and are 11-2 ATS on the season vs a team with a winning record. Take Boston! 

5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies +10½ -109

I love the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Bucks. Milwaukee has won 16 straight and are fresh off a 15-point win over the Pelicans without Antetokounmpo and he's questionable to play here. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Bucks gave him another night off, especially against a sub-par team like Memphis. 

The Grizzlies have won two straight since star rookie Ja Morant returned from a 4-game absence and this team is more than capable of keeping this close with him on the floor. I also think this is a tricky spot for Milwaukee. They just played 3 straight at home and will return home for 3 more after this contest. Real easy for them to just kind of take this game off and go through the motions. 

Bucks are a mere 7-24 ATS in their last 31 off 3 or more consecutive home wins and just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Grizzlies are returning home after 4-straight on the road. Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS last 11 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days. Take Memphis! 

5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -109

The Raptors are worth a look here as I think we are getting some exceptional value with Toronto laying a short number at home against the Rockets. Toronto comes into this off a crushing OT loss at home to Miami and they are 7-1 ATS last 8 times off a loss by more than 10 points. 

As for the Rockets, they will have had just 1-day off since their double-overtime loss at San Antonio on Tuesday. Five different players for Houston logged at least 40 minutes with Westbrook, Harden and Tucker all playing 48+. I just don't see the Rockets have a whole lot left in the tank in this one. 

That game against the Spurs ended 235-233 and that's worth noting, as Houston is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a contest that had 245 or more combined points. 

Also, underdogs that have won 60% to 70% of their games and are off a game that went over the total by 30 or more are just 5-26 (16%) ATS if they are playing a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA - TNT PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns -3½ -110

Love the value here with Phoenix as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. I get New Orleans has won two straight, but let's not get carried away. Those two wins were both at home against a couple of struggling teams in the Warriors and Blazers. New Orleans is still just 5-9 overall and are 1-5 on the road, where they are giving up a ridiculous 120.8 ppg. 

Phoenix has lost 3 of 4 and will be without their two big free agent pickups in Ricky Rubio and Aron Baynes, but they still got more than enough talent to beat the Pelicans by 4 at home.

Keep in mind that two of their 3 losses in their last 4 were home games against two of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and Celtics. The other a mere 4-point loss against a red-hot Sacramento team. Take Phoenix! 

5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cavs +7 -105

Love the value here with the Cavs as a big home dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and have failed to cover 4 straight. 76ers are not a good road team and are playing their 3rd straight away from home. 

Cavs might be one of the least talented teams in the league, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. This team has been routinely undervalued by the books and that's evident by Cleveland's 6-3-2 ATS record. 

76ers are 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road against a bad team that's won 25% to 40% of their games. Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 on 2 days of rest. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA - Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pistons -3 -109

I think we are getting a great price with Detroit as a slim road favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte is off to a better start than most expected with 4 wins in their first 11 games, which puts them on pace to eclipse their win total of 23.5. I'm not buying into the early success and believe this team is going to struggle to find wins going forward. 

We've seen clear signs of this of late, as they have lost 4 straight, which includes a couple of home losses to bad teams in the Pelicans and Grizzlies. 

Pistons are just 4-8 to start the year, but did play a good chunk of their early schedule without Blake Griffin. While they enter having lost 3 straight, all 3 were by single-digits and two of those on the road. I expect a big effort here from Detroit on Friday and they are simply the better team and it's just not asking much for them to cover the small number. 

Pistons are 22-10 ATS last 32 when playing a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Detroit! 

5* NBA - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Spurs -6½ -108

I'm not sure how you pass up on the Spurs in this spot. I know San Antonio is playing on no rest after a hard fought loss against the Clippers last night, but the Warriors have looked awful to start the season and now must play without Steph Curry. 

Golden State really doesn't have a guy they can go to at the point to fill the void left by Curry. Not to mention they were already lacking scoring outside of the former league MVP. Add in the awful defense they have played and I don't care who the Spurs send out there they should win here by double-digits no problem. 

Warriors just 12-30-1 ATS last 43 at home. Spurs have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and the favorite has covered 11 of the last 15 in the series. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA - Hawks/Heat Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Heat -8 -105

This line is begging you to take the Hawks and the public is taking the bait. I just don't think we are going to get the kind of effort needed from Atlanta to keep this close. Hawks are off a gut-wrenching 105-103 loss at home to the 76ers last night. A game the Hawks led by 9 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th quarter. 

Another factor here is the schedule makes this one a little less enticing for the Hawks, as they will turn around and host Miami on Thursday. As for the Heat, they are off to an impressive 2-1 start that includes a 5-point win at Milwaukee. They did that without their prized new addition of Jimmy Butler, who will make his debut tonight. Heat's only home game was the season opener and they won by 19 over Memphis. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 105 or more in 2 straight are 95-51 (65%) ATS since 1996 when facing an opponent off a loss by 3 or fewer points. Take Miami! 

5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Magic +4½ -105

Most are going to be tempted to take the Raptors here laying what looks like a short number at home against the Magic, who have failed to cover each of their first two games. I like Orlando quite a bit at this price. 

What people are going to overlook with Toronto is them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, all 3 at different venues. This is only the second game in the last 5 days for Orlando. Magic simply haven't shot the ball well in their first two games and are due for a few more shots to fall. Hard to see Toronto's defense being at it's best playing 3 in 4. 

Road dogs who had a losing record the previous year and off a road loss are 37-12 ATS (76%) ATS last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! 

5* NBA - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs -2 -109

The Mavs are definitely worth a look here as a slim home favorite against the Blazers. I think Dallas is even better than anticipated and the Mavs have started out 2-0. Portland on the other hand is a team that came into this season way overvalued after last year's trip to the Western Conference Finals. 

Portland won last time out at Sacramento, but that's not saying much given how bad the Kings have looked to start the season. I just don't think this will be a very profitable team on the road, especially early on, as it will take some time for the books to adjust to how much worse off this year's team is. 

Mavs are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Blazers are a mere 2-8 ATS last 10 times they have played the Mavs on the road. Take Dallas! 

5* NBA - Southwest Division PLAY OF THE MONTH  on Pelicans +11 -110

I absolutely love the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Rockets. I think with the Pelicans off a hard fought loss last night, most will be looking to fade them in the second of a back-to-back against a Houston team looking to rebound from a loss to the Bucks in their season opener. 

I just think there's enough talent with New Orleans, even without Zion, to keep this within single digits. Big thing here on no rest is the Pelicans are a very deep team. They had 10 guys play at least 14 minutes last night with no one playing more than 33. 

Houston has a lot of star-power, especially with the 1-2 punch of Westbrook and Harden. It has a chance to be special, but it's going to take some time for the chemistry to form. Thus making the Rockets a team to fade early on, especially when they are big favorites like this. Take New Orleans! 

5* NBA Finals - Game 6 NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors +3½ -109

I cashed in on the Warriors as a dog in Game 5 at Toronto. A big reason for that is, I just just didn't think the Raptors would be able to match the fight of Golden State and the return of Durant. Warriors had their way early with Durant in the lineup, but the offensive woes returned after he left. After putting up 62 points in the first half, Golden State managed just 44 in the second half. 

Warriors made a ridiculous 20 3-pointers in Game 5 and yet they still needed a ridiculous comeback in the final couple minutes to squeak out a 106-105 win. That's a massive concern, as it's unlikely Golden State shoots that well again. The Raptors already won twice at Oracle in the series and their intensity will be up a notch in this one. I don't see this thing extending to a Game 7. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Finals - No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors +4 -115

As difficult as it may be to back Golden State after just watching them lose two straight at home, I don't the series ends tonight. With or without Durant. However, I do think we are finally going to see Durant and just having him on the floor changes the game. If he plays, it's going to be a heck of lot harder on the Raptors defense, as they can't just focus all their attention to Curry and Thompson. 

The biggest thing I like here is that we got a defending champ with their backs against the wall. Golden State definitely has more to offer. This is also a sticky spot for the team up 3-1. It's not easy to match the intensity of the team facing elimination when you know in the back of your mind that a loss isn't the end of the world. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -5 -105

While I definitely would prefer Klay Thompson play, I want to point out that I love Golden State to win and cover in Game 4 regardless if he's on the floor. As of right now he's listed as probable, while Durant is listed as out, so you have to assume he's playing. 

Either way the effort simply wasn't there on the defensive end of the floor in Game 3 and there's no doubt that's been the focal point in the lockerroom leading up to this game. Golden State might be the defending champs, but they know they are all but done for if they lose this game. 

I think a better effort defensively and Toronto not shooting it as well from deep as they did in Game 3 will get the job done. The Warriors have the fire-power with Curry to score enough to not just win but win going away. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals - Game 3 NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -5½ -109

Even if Durant and Thompson don't play for Golden State, I'm all over the Warriors to win and cover at home in Game 3. Toronto had their chance to go up 2-0 but couldn't get it done and it's always the toughest bouncing back from a loss in a game that you felt like you should have won. 

Either way, I just don't see Golden State losing in this spot. The Warriors needed to win Game 2 and did just that. I think Game 3 is even that much more important. This is where the home-court shift will lead to a more lopsided outcome for the Warriors, as they should get a lot more out of their role players. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals - Postseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Raptors -1½ -109

I love the Raptors as a small home favorite in Game 2. We cashed in an easy winner on Toronto in Game 1 and with Kevin Durant not suiting up for Golden State in Game 2, I see no reason why we should expect anything different. 

Toronto's home court edge is underrated and like I said in the write-up for Game 1, I just think this is a really tough matchup for the Warriors without Durant. They got 55 points from Curry and Thompson in Game 1 and it wasn't nearly enough. Toronto also won going away with a pretty average game from Kawhi. Raptors depth is also huge in this series, especially with Iguodala likely playing at less than 100%. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA - Warriors/Raptors Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +1 -115

I really like Toronto to take Game 1 of the NBA Finals at home against the defending champs. Without Durant I think the Raptors matchup extremely well with Golden State. Marc Gasol has the ability to hang with Draymond, while Leonard and Lowry can slow down Curry and Thompson. 

I know Klay is a great defender, but I just feel like Kawhi is on a different level and without Durant the Warriors really don't have a great answer for him. Add in the home court edge in Toronto and the depth edge that the Raptors have and I think they should be a bigger favorite here. 

Let's also not forget that Toronto won both of the regular-season meetings with the Warriors, including a 20-point win as a 8-point dog at Golden State. Raptors are 21-8 ATS last 29 at home after winning 4 of their last 5 and 34-16-2 in their last 52 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Toronto! 

5* Bucks/Raptors NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -110

My money is on the Raptors to make it 4 straight wins to close out the series with Milwaukee and move on to the NBA Finals. As good as Antetokounmpo is, you could argue that Toronto's Kawhi Leonard has been the best player on the floor in this series, especially of late. 

More than anything, I think Leonard's got the much better supporting cast. Bucks just aren't getting production from their bench and a lot of that has to do with the great defense of Toronto. I just think with all the momentum the Raptors have, playing at home will be more than enough to propel them to victory in this one. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Western Conf Finals GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers +8 -110

Really like the value here with Portland as a near double-digit dog in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. I wasn't surprised to see the Blazers struggle in Game 1. In fact, I had a strong play on Golden State in that one. 

I just thought it was asking a lot for Portland to play well in that spot. It's hard enough playing on the road in the postseason at Golden State. It's that much harder when coming off a Game 7, especially when that Game 7 was played in altitude. While it's only been one day between games, I think we see a very different Blazers team tonight. 

The other huge key here is that Durant is not expected to play. I get that Curry and Thompson were great in Game 1, but it will be tough for the two to combine for another 62 points and 12 made 3-pointers. Not saying the Blazers will win, but I expect this to be a dog fight the whole way. Take Portland! 

5* Bucks/Raptors Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors +6½ -110

I really like the value here with Toronto as a pretty decent road dog in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Bucks. I know the Raptors just played Game 7 against the 76ers on Sunday, but two days is more than enough to recover. 

I actually think the Bucks are the team that is going to be most affected by rest. Milwaukee only needed 5 games to put away the Celtics in the second round and thus haven't played in a week. I think no game action for that long really makes it tough on a team to come out sharp. I look for the Raptors to take control early and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went on to win the game. Take Toronto! 

5* BEST BET on Warriors -7 -110

Analysis will be posted shortly

5* NBA Playoffs - Warriors/Rockets Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -6 -110

I'll back Houston in a must-win at home against the Warriors in Game 6. With Golden State up 3-2 in the series, it's win or season over for the Rockets. In a change of events from last year, the Warriors will be the ones trying to close out a series without one of their best players.

Last year the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before losing Chris Paul to an injury. Warriors won Game 6 at home 115-86 and followed that up with a win at Houston in Game 7. Rockets will look to take a similar path, as Golden State will be without Kevin Durant. 

I get the Warriors still have Curry, Thompson and Green, but Houston now without a doubt has the best player on the floor in Harden and in my opinion are the better defensive team. I think the Rockets roll here. Take Houston! 

5* BEST BET on 76ers +2 -110

Analysis will be posted shortly

5* NBA Wiseguy Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors +

A lot of people will be quick to lay the short number with Houston at home in Game 3, as everyone sees this as a must-win for the Rockets, who are down 0-2 in the series. No denying how big a game this is for Houston, but I believe the Warriors will also be out to send a message. 

Last thing Golden State wants to do is give Houston life and I think they come out extremely motivated to go up 3-0. While the Rockets more than held their own on the road in Games 1 & 2, they continued to struggle from the field. Houston hasn't eclipsed 110 points in 5 straight and have shut under 45% from the field in 4 of their last 5. 

Warriors are 15-5 ATS last 2 seasons in the 2nd half of the year vs a team with a winning record and have covered 7 of their last 8 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Rockets are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 when playing on 3 days of rest. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Semifinals GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucks -

A lot of people are going to be quick to take the points with Boston, especially after watching the Celtics sweep the Pacers in the first round. I just think that's a huge mistake, as I not only think the Bucks cover the big number, but win here in a blowout. 

Milwaukee is 35-8 at home this season and in their two home games against Detroit in the first round, they won 121-86 in Game 1 and 120-99 in Game 2. A lot of people overlook just how good this Bucks team is defensively. Pistons shot a miserable 38.8% from the field against the Bucks in the first round. Boston won with their defense in their series with the Pacers, but stopping Milwaukee's offense will prove to be a much harder task. 

Bucks are 44-29 ATS as a favorite this season, which includes a 23-12 ATS mark when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

Love the value here with Toronto at home, as this just has the feeling of a series where the home team is going to have a massive edge throughout. While both of these teams started out the first round with a Game 1 loss at home only to win 4 straight, I came away a lot more impressed with Toronto than I was with Philadelphia. 

The fact that Embiid is sitting out playoff games is a bad bad sign for the 76ers. Hard to believe he's not playing through some pain. He's the guy that really makes Philly so dangerous and I just don't trust them on the road without him at 100%. 

Two other key things in this matchup that I believe favor the Raptors is their depth and their defense. I think they have a massive edge in both areas of the game. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -

I fully expect the Raptors to make easy work of the Magic and cover the big spread in Game 5 at home. It's been all Toronto since Orlando's upset win on the road in Game 1. Raptors responded from that loss with a resounding 111-82 home win in Game 2 and are coming off a 107-85 victory in Game 4 at Orlando. 

The Magic know they are done for and the Raptors should be plenty motivated to put an end to this series on their home floor. Factor in the massive talent gap between the two teams and it should all add up to a blowout victory. 

Toronto is now 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home in the month of April and a perfect 9-0 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons when coming off a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers

A lot of people came into this series expecting the Thunder to advance without much problem. Portland had just recently lost Nurkic to a season-ending injury and McCollum was working his way back to full strength after a long absence. Blazers proved those doubters wrong by going up 2-0. 

Oklahoma City did manage to win Game 3 at home, but it took a huge game from Westbrook. I don't know that they can't count on that kind of performance again here, as they need him to be special to not only win, but cover this spread. Also, the Thunder shot 52% (15-29) on 3-pointers in Game 3 and still only won by 12. 

Blazers are 15-4 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss of 10 or more points, which includes a 11-1 ATS mark when that previous loss came on the road. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

Easy play here on Toronto at this price. I think a lot of the value here stems from Orlando's upset win of the Raptors in Game 1. I just think that result was more of the Raptors not giving the Magic their full attention, as they are without a doubt the better team and they know it. 

That loss got Toronto locked back in and they came out and absolutely dominated the Magic in Game 2. Sure the Magic are going to be fired up playing a home playoff game, but it's not going to be enough for them to pull off the upset. Much like we saw last night with Brooklyn, who also won Game 1 and was getting a ton of love going into Game 3. I would be shocked if this is close at all. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder +

I was on the wrong end of Game 1 with OKC, but that's not going to keep me from going big on the Thunder in Game 2. Portland got big games from all of their top guys in Lillard (30), McCullom (24) and Kanter (20). While those 3 combined for 74 points, the rest of the team managed just 30. 

I just don't think Portland has the fire-power to win this series and let's not forget the Thunder swept the regular-season series 4-0. Both Westbrook and George shot the ball poorly in Game 1 (4 for 19 on 3-pointers) and yet Oklahoma City had a chance to win the game. Keep in mind they also started the game down 14 in the 1st quarter. I expect a much stronger start for the Thunder and really expect them to win this one rather comfortably. Take Oklahoma City! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers -

I love this spot and price with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. As of right now LAC is the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and would have to take on the Warriors in the first round. However, with a win here and a loss by either the Spurs or Thunder, the Clippers would move up to the No. 7 seed and play the Nuggets. 

The even bigger key here is that while this games means a lot to Los Angeles, it means next to nothing for the Jazz. Utah is locked into the No. 5 spot and had their big tune-up game for the playoffs last night at home against the Nuggets, which they won 118-108. I would expect the Jazz to rest some guys and any key guys that do play, likely won't be on the floor for long. This has all the makings of a Clippers blowout victory.

LAC is 17-8 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 13-5 ATS last 18 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 14-4 ATS last 18 when coming off a road loss. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets -

I love the value here with Houston laying a small number on the road against the Thunder. The Rockets were just hoping to play well enough to get past the Blazers for the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference. They can officially lock up the No. 3 spot tonight with a win and in the process might pass the slumping Nuggets for the No. 2 spot, as Denver is a dog at Utah. 

Thunder have turned it around with 3 straight wins, but overall have not been playing well. They are just 9-13 over their last 22 games. Houston is simply the better team and with how much this game means to the Rockets, I just don't see them losing. 

OKC is 3-13 ATS last 16 vs a team from the Western Conference, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 0-4 ATS last 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Northwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers -

Easy play here on the Blazers as a small home favorite against the Nuggets. Denver is pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed in the west and are expected to give a number of guys the day off on Sunday to make sure they are fresh for the playoffs. Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are all out for this one. 

While Denver is playing without 3 of their better players, Portland is welcoming back one of theirs, as C.J. McCollum is expected to return from injury. I'm confident the Blazers not only cover this spread, but do so in convincing fashion. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Raptors -

This is the perfect spot to jump on Toronto, as we know the Raptors are going to be highly motivated coming off back-to-back losses. Both of those games could have gone the other way and it was more of Toronto simply not shooting well than anything. Raptors shot just 39% at Detroit and then 42% at home against the Rockets. 

I don't see those struggles continuing against the Pelicans. New Orleans has allowed 111 or more points in 10 straight games. They just let the Jazz shoot 52% on their home floor last time out. Opposing teams are shooting 47% from the field against them in their home games this season. 

New Orleans is also going to be down two of their better players, as both E'Twaun Moore and Jrue Holiday are both out. They could also be without Jahlil Okafor, who is questionable. Pelicans have also routinely not showed up with the big crowds on Friday nights, going just 1-10 ATS last 11 games played on Friday. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls -

Chicago defeated the Hawks 168-161 in 4OT on Friday at Atlanta and I see no reason why they won't make easy work of them on their home floor this afternoon. Bulls have been playing some really good basketball of late.

Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. They have covered each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record and are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with the Hawks. 

Atlanta is a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 vs an opponent from the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS last 5 after giving up 125 or more points in their previous game. Take Chicago! 

5* NBA Pacific Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Kings -

Love the value here with Sacramento at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Kings have been one of the best bets in the NBA for a while now. Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and the books are simply slow to adjust because of how bad this team has been in previous years. 

I believe a big reason the Kings are showing such great value here is because they come in having lost 4 of their last 5. The thing is, 3 of the 4 losses came on the road against the likes of the Nuggets, Warriors and Timberwolves. The other was a 1-point loss at home to the Bucks. 

Kings have been really good at home and it's not just of late. Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. They are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of their last 4. They also have gone a dominant 8-1 ATS last 9 as a home favorite. Take Sacramento! 

5* NBA Central Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Bulls +

Easy play here on the Bulls at home against the Bucks. Chicago comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they have won 3 straight. The most recent being a 126-116 win at home over the Celtics as a 10-point underdog. The game before that they won at Orlando as a 8-point dog. 

Not only are the Bulls playing well, but the Bucks will be playing this one without Giannis Antetokounmpo, as well as George Hill. Last time Antetokounmpo sat out Milwaukee got managed just 83 points on 33% shooting in a 20-point home loss to the Magic. 

While Jimmy and his long-term clients got the Bulls as a double-digit dog, this play is still recommended at the current line. Take Chicago! 

5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz +

I love the value here with Utah, as I fully expect the Jazz to go into OKC and upset the Thunder. I just think we are going to see Utah really come out in this game with a chip on their shoulder. These two have already played twice this season and the Thunder have won both meetings, so revenge is definitely in play for the Jazz. 

I'm not saying OKC isn't going to show up, but there's no doubt this one doesn't mean as much to them. Keep in mind we saw this team come out extremely flat in their final game before the break, losing by 9 and giving up 131 points at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite.

Fading OKC in division games has been a wise move, as the Thunder are just 10-21 (32%) ATS over the last 2 seasons. Jazz are also a dominant 15-5 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg and 13-2 ATS on the road in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ points/game. Take Utah! 

5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves - 

I really like this spot for Minnesota as a small home favorite. This has to feel like a must-win for the Timberwolves, who have lost 4 straight and are now 5-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. The team sitting in 8th is the Clippers, which should only add that much more motivation here. 

As for LAC, they made it clear they are more focused on the future than the present with the deals they made at the trade deadline. I get they come in off a 123-112 upset win at Boston as a 11.5-point dog, but they trailed by 28 (trailed 43-20 after 1st quarter) and benefited from the Celtics losing All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving to injury in the 2nd quarter. Each of their last 3 wins have come with them trailing by at least 20. They followed up each of the last two rallies with losses by 19 or more. 

Part of Minnesota's struggles is they have had their top 3 point guards out of the lineup. Jeff Teague is back and should make a bigger contribution in his second game back and there's a chance Derrick Rose returns after practicing on Sunday. Take Minnesota! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons +

Last time out the Pistons blew a 25-point lead in a 10 point home loss to the Clippers. Blake Griffin called it the worst loss of the year. My money is on Detroit using that defeat as motivation against a Denver team that is slowly getting a bigger and bigger target on their back. 

Nuggets have 6 straight and are tied with Golden State for the best record in the West. The thing is they have been playing short-handed. Garry Harris is out with a groin injury and Jamal Murray has missed the last 5 games with a bad ankle. 

I just think Denver has to be running on fumes right now and it would be really easy for them to look past a Pistons team that has won a mere 9-games since upsetting the Warriors at home back on Dec. 1st. 

Nuggets are also not nearly the same team on the road, where they have failed to cover 6 of their last 8 against teams with a winning home record. Denver is also a mere 15-28 last 43 road games off a win. Take Detroit! 

5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz +

The books are absolutely begging the public to take the Warriors here as a small road favorite and they are doing exactly that (close to 70% action on Golden State). They did the same thing when these two met back in October and the Jazz covered in a painful 124-123 loss as 2.5-point dog. 

There's no doubt that Utah has been itching for this rematch after nearly knocking off the defending champs. We are going to get their best effort here. It's hard for Golden State to get up for regular-season games and I have to think they are a bit annoyed that they have this 1-game road trip to Utah before returning home for Christmas (next road game is 12/29). 

Not to mention the Warriors aren't just struggling to cover on the road, they are a mere 8-7 straight up away from Oracle Arena. Golden State is also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Utah! 

5* NBA Southeast PLAY OF THE MONTH on Hawks +

This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta as a home dog against the Wizards. Washington has been one of the most overvalued teams this season, especially on the road. The Wizards are 4-12 SU and 4-12 ATS in their 16 road games. 

I get the Hawks aren't a great team, but no way should Washington be a road favorite. The Wizards come in off what looks like an impressive 128-110 win over the Lakers, but they got a LA team that didn't show up to play on the second night of a back-to-back road set. Prior to that win they had lost 4 straight, including a 15-point loss on the road to the Cavs. 

Wizards are 0-9 ATS last 9 road games after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after a game with a combined score of 235 or more. Take Atlanta! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Magic +

I really like this spot for Orlando to cover the spread and possible win the game outright at Dallas on Monday. This is a big letdown spot for the Mavs, who are coming off a thrilling 107-104 win at home over the Rockets. 

As for the Magic, we can bank on a big effort here after back-to-back home losses to the Nuggets and Pacers. Orland has been a solid road team. They are 6-6 away from home and most importantly, 9-2 ATS on the highway. Magic have also covered 7 straight away from home when facing a team that is allowing 106+ points/game. 

Another thing is Orlando is fresh, as they have played just once in the last 4 days. Playing into that is a great system in favor of a Magic cover. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are playing just their 4th or less game in the last 10 days are 41-15 (73%) ATS in the month of December over the last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! 

5* NBA Central Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

I got no problem here laying the big number with Milwaukee at home against the Bulls. The Bucks come into this one off a upset loss at Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite. Milwaukee hasn't lost back-to-back games all season and are 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. 

The Bulls are really struggling right now. Chicago has lost 3 straight and are a mere 3-12 in their last 15. Until they get some of their key guys back from injury, they are going to struggle to be competitive, especially against the elite teams. These two teams played earlier this month and the Bucks toyed with Chicago in a 123-104 win, as they led 63-45 at the half. 

Big system in play as well. Favorites who have won between 60% to 75% of their games and are off a game where they failed to cover are a dominant 39-15 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a horrible team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NBA Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

The Bucks should have no problem here winning and covering the number. Milwaukee's got away with some sloppy starts here of late, but I don't think they will be sleep-walking through the start of this one. That's because the Bucks will be out for revenge from an ugly 15-point loss at Portland earlier this month. 

Milwaukee is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home, so the books have clearly not given this team enough respect when they take the floor at the Fiserv Forum. Portland is a good team and in normal circumstances might put up a decent fight, but they have to be running on fumes. Blazers are playing their 5th straight game on the road. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 nights and they just played last night in New York. Not to mention their next game is against the Warriors on Friday, so hard to not look ahead to that one just a little bit. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Suns +

I really like the value here with Phoenix as a double-digit dog against the 76ers. I just think Philadelphia is bit overvalued right now with the recent trade of Jimmy Butler and them having won and covered their last two. 

The thing is, they could very easily be 0-3 with Butler. They lost his debut at Orlando, beat Utah at home by just 6 points and the Jazz shot 4 of 22 (18.2%) from deep and 56.8% from the free throw line. Then last time out they overcame a 60-point night from Kemba Walker in a 122-119 overtime win at Charlotte. 

I think that game against the Hornets really took a lot out of this team (all 5 starters played 30+ mins) and this is not as deep a team after the trade. With how bad the Suns have been, I just feel this is one of those games that the 76ers go through the motions and have to scratch out a win late. Take Phoenix! 

5* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz -

This is an easy play on Utah as a small home favorite against the Celtics. The Jazz really need to get on track after losing 4 of their last 5. They were able to stop the bleeding and their 4-game skid with a 15 point win over the Mavs last time out. I expect that strong play to carry over to this one. 

We know we are going to get a big effort here from Utah, as this will be the first time that long-term Jazz star Gordon Hayward returns to Utah in an opposing team's uniform. On top of that, the Jazz are catching Boston at the perfect time. The Celtics are in the midst of a 5-game road trip and playing on zero rest after rallying in the 2nd half to win in OT at Phoenix last night. Boston looked like they were already running on fumes, as they scored just 35 in the 1st half against the Suns. 

They simply aren't going to have the energy/effort to keep this game competitive. We also now know Kyrie Irving won't play and I could see some other guys minutes restricted, as this game just doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things for the Celtics. Take Utah! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Wizards -

Last time out the Wizards were booed off their own court in a 134-111 loss at home to the Thunder. Washington is now 1-7 thru their first 8 games and have lost 5 straight. It's not acceptable to go 1-7, but they have played 5 of their first 8 games not the road and their 3 at home were against likely playoff teams in the Heat, Raptors and Thunder. They also have 3 losses by 4-points or less. 

Simply put, it's not as bad as people are making it. I'm confident this team will get it figured out and I'm willing to bet it happens at home today against the Knicks. New York has played well at times and are off a nice 118-106 win at Dallas, but the Knicks aren't a playoff team. They are 3-6 on the season and I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of a desperate Wizards team that I believe will treat this like a must-win. Take Washington! 

5* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Heat -

Great spot here to fade the Kings on the road. Sacramento is off back-to-back upset wins at home, as they defeated Memphis 97-92 as a 3-point dog and the Wizards 116-112 as a 5-point dog.

I think it has the Kings getting a little too much respect here against a Heat team that is off back-to-back impressive wins at home. Miami crushed the Knicks at home 110-87 and then followed that up with a 120-111 win over Portland. Long way for Sacramento to travel to open up their road trip and I look for them to come out a bit flat. 

That should be more than enough for the Heat to win here by double-digits. Kings are just 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also struggled on the boards and the Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs a team that is getting out-rebounded by 3+ boards per game. Take Miami! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

Milwaukee has started out the 2018-19 season 5-0 and I look for them to stay undefeated with a comfortable win at home against the Magic. Each of the last 4 wins for the Bucks have come by at least 9 points, including a 30-point blowout win at Minnesota last night. 

I just don't think Orlando has the talent to keep this one close. Not a big deal here that Milwaukee is playing on no rest with how easy the win was last night against the Timberwolves. I would be more concerned about the Magic showing up, as they hit the road for the 3rd time in the last week and are just 1-day of rest. 

Orlando is a mere 4-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing a top tier offensive team like Milwaukee, who are averaging 110 or more points/game. Magic are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing on 1 day of rest, while the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 25 on 0 days of rest. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NBA Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Hornets +

I really like what I have seen from Charlotte to start this new season. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bucks 113-112 on Wednesday, but followed that up with a 120-88 blowout win at Orlando. Charlotte is really pushing the pace this year and are shooting lights out from deep, as they come in averaging 16 made 3-pointers and are shooting 43.4% from long distance. 

Miami lost to the Magic on the road in their opener Wednesday and squeaked out a win at Washington on Thursday. The Heat are playing short-handed to start the new season, as Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters are all out with injuries. I just don't think Miami will have enough gas in the tank to keep up with Charlotte and all we need is for the Hornets to lose by 4 or less. 

Hornets are 24-8 in their last 32 road games after playing a game where they led by 15 or more points at the half. Miami has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies -

Great spot to jump on the Grizzlies at home off that ugly loss in their season opener on the road to the Pacers. Indiana is one of the top teams in the east and Memphis simply didn't match their intensity. They also shot about as bad as an NBA team can, going just 25 of 84 (29.8%) from the field. 

I expect the shots to fall at home against a Hawks team that just doesn't have a lot of talent and will certainly struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta gave up 126 points to the Knicks, who are without their best player in Porzingis. 

This is a much-improved Memphis team, as they have a healthy Mike Conley at the points and one of the top big men in the game in Marc Gasol. The Hawks are going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and will simply be no match for the Grizzlies on the road. Take Memphis! 

5* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Cavs +

I love the value here with the Cavs as a decently priced home dog in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. While Cleveland's hopes of making this a series likely are long gone with them down 3-0, they aren't just going to roll over and give the title to Golden State. There's a lot of pride in not getting swept and it's not like the Cavs haven't had their chances. Cleveland could just as easily be sitting with a 2-1 lead, as they were right there in both Game 1 and Game 3. 

Keep in mind last year the Warriors took a 3-0 series lead and a lot of people thought the Cavs were going to get swept. Instead, Cleveland ran away with Game 4 in a 21-point blowout win. I don't know if it will be that lopsided, but I fully expect the Cavs to win this one outright. At the same time, we got some insurance if Cleveland does lose, as we can still cash if the Warriors win by 5 or less. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I love the value here with the Warriors at this price on their home court in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Pelicans. Regardless if Steph Curry plays or not (added bonus if he does), I expect Golden State to come out looking to send a message to New Orleans that they have no business being in this series. 

I know the Pelicans looked great in their sweep of the Blazers, but Portland wasn't playing well down the stretch and that was a great matchup with no one on the Blazers who could contain Anthony Davis and Rondo being able to make things difficult on Lillard. While Davis will be to stop, Portland will have no answer for Durant and the depth of the Warriors. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMINT Top Play on Raptors +

I love the value here with Toronto getting points in Game 6 at Washington. The Raptors took back control of the series with a 108-98 win in Game 5 at home and are going to do everything in their power to make sure their next home game is in round 2. This series likely would have been over if the Raptors didn't blow a 14-point 2nd half lead in Washington back in Game 4. 

I don't see them making that same mistake twice. Look for Toronto to take control of this game early and keep their foot on the gas. The Raptors also seem to have figured out the Wizards offense. After allowing Washington to shot 48% or better in each of the first 3 games, they held them to 46% in Game 4 on the road and 41% in Game 5. 

Raptors are 25-14 in their last 39 off a double-digit home win, while the Wizards are just 11-22 ATS as a home favorite this season. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Thunder -

I love the value here with OKC as a short home favorite in Game 5 against the Jazz. The Thunder find themselves facing elimination down 3-1 in the series and I like their chances of getting a win and cover in this one. You have to give Utah credit for how well they have played up to this point, but it's extremely difficult closing out a team on the road in the postseason, especially for a team like the Jazz that don't have a ton of playoff experience to fall back on. 

One of the biggest problems for the Thunder has been the early foul trouble of Westbrook. They also aren't getting the kind of production they need out of veteran Carmelo Anthony. I look for both of these two to step up big and for the others to have a big game for OKC at home. Even with their win and cover in Game 2 on the road, Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Chesepeake Energy Arena. Take Oklahoma City! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pelcians +

I love the value here with the Pelicans as a decently priced dog in Game 2 of their series with the Blazers. New Orleans avoided a devastating loss in Game 1, as the held on for a 97-95 win after going into the 4th quarter with a 12-point lead. Anthony Davis led the way with 35 points and 14 rebounds, but he wasn't the only big contributor for the Pelicans. Rondo scored just 6 points, but had 17 assists and 8 rebounds. Mirotic added 16 points and 11 rebound, while Holiday dropped 21 points. 

New Orleans as a team assisted on 26 of their 41 made baskets. In comparison the Blazers only had 17 assists on 37 made field goals. Portland was really fortunate to even be in the game, as they shot 37.8% from the field. What kept them in it was 15 offensive rebounds. I just think that's unlikely to happen again. This is simply too many points for the Pelicans to be catching given they have the best player on the court. Take New Orleans! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Lakers +

I love the value here with the Lakers as a big home dog against the Rockets on Tuesday. Houston has absolutely nothing to play for. They have the best record in the league locked up and have made it clear that their primary focus over the last 2 regular season games is to stay healthy.

The starters will play, but their minutes will be restricted. Given the circumstances this line should be a lot closer to a pick'em. I think there's a good chance the Lakers win this game and we got plenty of insurance if they end up on the losing end. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NBA Late Season PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bulls +

I love the value here with Chicago as a big road dog against the Nets on Monday. I think we are seeing a huge overreaction with this line. Sure Brooklyn just won at Chicago 124-96 on Saturday. The thing is, that makes this game that less interesting for the Nets, who have zero to play for and are likely looking ahead to their finale against the Celtics. 

The Bulls on the other hand should be motivated here to play better than they did in the last meeting. Chicago had been playing well before laying an egg against the Nets. Chicago had won 3 of 4 and are still 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. 

Bulls are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Brooklyn is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home in the 2nd half of the season. Take Chicago! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers -

I love the value here with the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Warriors. Golden State will be without Durant, Curry and Thompson for this game and have little to nothing to play for down the stretch. The Warriors aren't catching Houston for the No. 1 spot and are all but a lock to take home the No. 2 spot, as they need just 1 more win or 1 more Blazers loss to make it official. 

We saw a similar scenario play out in their last game at home against the Jazz and they were no match for Utah in a 19-point loss. I think we could easily see Indiana win here by double-digits. The Pacers clinched a playoff spot in their last game, but still have plenty to play for as they are just 1.5-games behind the Cavs for 3rd and a mere 4-games ahead of Miami for 8th in the east. 

Pacers are 23-11 ATS as a favorite this season and the Warriors are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Golden State has also failed to cover each of their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Take Indiana! 

5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets +

I like the value here with the Rockets here at home in Saturday's big showdown with the Warriors. James Harden returned to action in Houston's last game and the Rockets cruised to a 116-98 win over a Timberwolves team that had been playing very well. The Rockets might not be able to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, but I like their chances here at home in this 1-game set, as this one simply means more to Houston than it does Golden State. 

Warriors are overvalued just about every time they take the floor, but even more so when they go up against a good team and the numbers back it up. Golden State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Warriors. Teams off a road win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 16-40 (29%) ATS in the month of January over the last 5 seasons. Take Houston! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Celtics -

After going on an absolute tear, Boston has come down to earth a little bit here of late, as they are just 2-2 SU in their last 4 and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. I think it's led to a great price to back the Celtics at home here against the Jazz. 

Utah has been up and down this season, but are not playing well right now. The Jazz have lost 4 straight with the most recent being a 100-103 loss at Chicago. Prior to that they lost by double-digits to both the Bucks and Rockets. This is now their 3rd straight on the road and while Boston is a legit opponent, I think upcoming games against the Cavs and Rockets are ones they will be more excited for. 

Celtics have also owned bad road teams at home, going 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are also 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 off a straight up win. Take Boston! 

5* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto -

The Raptors are a team that I think is flying under the radar early on this season and they come into this game red-hot having won 4 straight and are 6-1 over their last 7 with the only loss a 1-point defeat to the Celtics. They have covered each of their last 4 games and I look for them to make it 5 in a row here tonight against a Knicks team they manhandled in a 107-84 win at home last Friday. 

New York is playing better than expected so far this season, as they are 9-7 through their first 16 games. However, none of their wins are all that impressive, as they have beat up on a lot of bad teams at home during this stretch. I still think this team has a long way to go to compete with the top tier teams like the Raptors. I just feel they are getting way too much respect right now and it's only a matter of time before they return to their losing ways. 

Toronto has been a covering machine on the road, going 6-3 ATS in their 9 road games this season. The Raptors also seem to save their best for division opponents, as they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 vs teams from the Atlantic Division. NY on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 division games. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs -

I believe all the negative talk early with Cleveland has the Cavs showing great value right now and I really like them here as a short road favorite against the Knicks. While Cleveland is just 3-2 in their last 5, they are painfully close to having a 5-game winning streak, as both losses came by 4-points or less and one of those was at red-hot Houston. New York has been playing well here of late, but most of that has come against bad teams. Everyone knows LeBron loves playing at the Garden and there's extra incentive here for the Cavs after that ugly 95-114 loss at home to these Knicks in the most recent meeting. Look for them to make a statement here. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lakers +

I like the value here with LA catching a big number here against the Celtics. While Boston failed to cover in their 120-117 win at Atlanta in their last game, they are still getting way overvalued right now by the books due to the fact that they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. 

The Lakers are also playing well right now. They come in having won 3 of their last 4 and have covered the spread in all 4 of these contests. Los Angeles is getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they have put up 107 or more in each of their last 4 games. Boston's defense has been great early, but they weren't sharp in their last game, allowing the Hawks to hit 48% from the field. I think LA can do enough here to keep this one within the number. 

You also have to keep in mind this has to be a tired Celtics team, as they are playing their 6th game in the last 10 days. Boston is just 2-11 ATS in this scheduling spot over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets -

I'll gladly back Houston laying single digits on the road against the Hawks. The Rockets are coming off their best performance since their opening win at Golden State, as they knocked off the Knicks 119-97 in New York. Houston finally got going from long-distance with 19 3-pointers and their poor shooting from the outside had played a big role in their slow start. 

Atlanta simply doesn't have the talent to keep this one competitive. The Hawks have lost 7 straight since their opening win over the Mavs, who are another team competing for the honor of worst team in the league. Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams, connecting unjust 42.6% of their field goal attempts. They are also not good defensively, giving up 109 ppg. 

Adding incentive here for Houston is the fact that they have lost 7 straight to Atlanta, with the last win in the series coming all the way back in 2013. Don't doubt for a second that's not on the mind of the Rockets players. That should be more than enough motivation for them to turn this into a blowout. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors -

There's no question the refs were doing their part to extend the series at least one more game with how they officiated that 1st quarter of Game 5, which Cleveland managed to score a ridiculous 49 points in the 1st quarter and 86 in the 1st half. The Cavs were shooting free throws left and right early. That played a huge role in the game. More than anything them getting off to that strong start gave them confidence, which led to a great shooting night. It also got the Warriors in foul trouble and didn't let them play with the same intensity on defense. It's not that Golden State wasn't committing any fouls, it's just they weren't calling the same fouls on Cleveland on the other side of the ball. With the series back in Golden State, I look for the Warriors to get a more favorable whistle and that should be all they need to not only win, but to win in blowout fashion. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Finals VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I'll be the first to admit that I was fortunate to cover with the Warriors in Game 3, but I'm not jumping off them, even with a bigger number in Game 4. Cleveland played as well as they could and had to feel like they had the game won before that epic collapse in the final 3 minutes. I just don't see the Cavs emotionally and physically having what it takes to keep Game 4 competitive. Yes, it's the NBA Finals, but going out with a fight isn't as big a deal for a team that just won the title last year. On the flip side of this, I see no letdown for the Warriors, who are not only chasing a perfect 16-0 record in the postseason, but I believe they want to return the favor and celebrate the title on Cleveland's floor after losing Game 7 at home last year. You have to be 100% locked in to beat this Warriors team and I just don't see being the case for Cleveland, who I think will be quick to throw in the towel once Golden State gets anywhere close to a double-digit lead. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

As much as everyone wants Cleveland to make this a series and win Game 3 at home, I just don't think it's going to happen. It would be one thing if Golden State finished off the Cavs last year after taking a 3-1 lead, but because they failed to do so, I don't see them taking any game for grantit. I look for them to come out 100% locked in on taking a 3-0 lead and I just don't know what Cleveland is going to do to stop them. LeBron is averaging a triple-double and they are getting beat by 20+ points/game. Even if the Cavs' role players step up and play better, I still think it takes a near perferct performance just for them to win this game. I also hear alot about how the first two games last year in Golden State were blowouts. That team didn't have Durant and he's the MVP of the finals right now. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

These two teams are clearly in a class above the rest of the league, I just feel that the Warriors are the more complete team. James is the best player in the game, but he's going up against 4 of the best players in the game in Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green, plus I feel that Golden State has the deeper roster. You also can't discount the revenge here with the Warriors after blowing a 3-1 lead in last year's Finals.

It's also worth pointing out that the home team has dominated the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12. On top of that, James' teams are 1-6 ATS in Game 1 of the Finals. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics +

Not a big surprise that Boston is a bigger home dog here in Game 5 than they were in Games 1 and 2 with the loss of star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but I'm not so sure the loss of Thomas is as bad as people think. The Celtics won their first game without him in Cleveland and followed that up with another strong showing in a loss in Game 4, where Irving went off and the Cavs didn't miss in the 2nd half (shot 65% from the field).

How are they better? As good of a scorer as Thomas is, he's a major liability on defense, especially when he's got to guard Irving and get put in pick-n-rolls with LeBron. At the same time, Boston's offense is more of a system than anything, much like the Spurs, which can give teams problem. I actually think the loss of Thomas has helped them move the ball better. I don't see this team going down without a fight and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Take BOSTON!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavaliers -

I know this is a huge number and the Celtics just won outright as an even bigger dog in Game 3, but I just don't see this game being competitive. Cleveland did whatever they wanted in the first two games of the series, including that epic beatdown in Game 2, where they were up by 50. If they were going to suffer a letdown, it was going to be Game 3 and while it happened, they still had a 20+ point lead in the 2nd half.

A 100% locked in Cleveland team will take the floor tonight and no one is going to be more motivated than LeBron James, who has been hearing nothing but how poorly he played in Game 3. I think we could see another massive blowout here and I'm confident that the Cavaliers wins here by 20+ points. Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I'll take my chances with the Warriors closing this series out in fashion, much like they did in the first two rounds on the road. Up 3-0 on the Blazers in Round 1, Golden State defeated Portland 128-103. In the next round, up 3-0 on the Jazz, they crushed Utah on the road 121-95. I expect a similar outcome here and wouldn't be shocked if got ugly. San Antonino gave it all they had in Game 3 without Khawi and lost by 12 and with him still sidelined and David Lee also now out, I just don't see the Spurs truly believing they can come back and make this a series.

As for Golden State, they got a great reminder of what can happen when you take your foot off the gas with the Celtics improbable win yesterday. They also now have a chance to get some extra rest on Cleveland before the finals, who still has to play at least two more games. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs -

I was all over Cleveland in Game 1 and I just can't go against them after what I saw in the opener. As I mentioned in my analysis for Game 1, the Cavs are taking note of everything the Warriors are doing and want to match their perfect 10-0 start to the postseason.The last thing they want is to have this series drag out before taking on Golden State.

I know this team struggled some with Indiana, but they were in the process of turning on that playoff switch after not playing well to close out the regular season. They made easy work of a very good Toronto team in the next round and did whatever they wanted to the Celtics on Wednesday. I truly believe Boston has to play their best just to keep this game close and could do so and still not cover this spread.

LeBron James is playing out of his mind and when he's locked in like this, there's no stopping this team, at least in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind this is a Cavs team that is fresh right now, having played a mere 9 games in over a month (played first playoff game on 4/15). Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Cavs -

Don't think for a second that Cleveland isn't taking notice of the Warriors and their perfect 10-0 start. The Cavs also went a perfect 8-0 in the first two rounds and I'm not buying this team coming out flat. Not after watching how Golden State struggled after their long layoff in Game 1 against the Spurs. Cleveland also has a little extra motivation, as they are trying to take control of home court in the series.

The Cavs won 3 of the 4 meetings in the regular season and I think the most telling of those games was the most recent one on April 5th. At that time these two were neck and neck for the No. 1 seed in the east. Cleveland didn't just go into Boston and beat the Celtics, they dominated them 114-91, easily covering at a near identical line to what we are getting here in Game 1. It's also worth noting the only game the Cavs lost in the regular season series was a 99-103 defeat at Boston, where they shot a miserable 40% from the field.

All of this and we haven't got to the fact that this is a difficult spot for Boston. The Celtics just finished up a grueling 7-game series against the Wizards on Monday. The Cavs haven't played since 5/7. They had a similar layoff between the 1st and 2nd round and won Game 1 over the Raptors rather easily. Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

It's unfortunate what happened with Kawhi Leonard in Game 1, but it was clear that his absence changed everything. It's not so much his scoring that San Antonio missed, but his defense. Sure the rest of the Spurs are going to come out motivated, but this is the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is too talented and respects the game too much to take this one for granted. They haven't forgot what San Antonio did to the Rockets on the road without Leonard to close out their previous series and how this team jumped all over them to start Game 1. I expect a much different Warriors team from the tip and let's face it, this is the most talented team in the league and I just feel it's going to be too much for the Spurs without Leonard to keep this one competitive. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs +

As good as the Warriors have looked in the first two rounds, I think they are going to have a much more difficult time getting past the Spurs. San Antonio just eliminated the Rockets on the road without their best player and did so in blowout fashion. That's a direct credit to Popovich and the system the Spurs have in place. Not that the Spurs are talented, but they aren't on the same level as these Warriors. However, coaching and execution on both sides of the ball will give them a shot. More than anything their defense and ability to keep the Warriors from just unloading 3-pointers. I'm not saying the Spurs win Game 1 on the road, but I do think it's a close game and they cover the near double-digit spread. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Wizards -

As stated in previous writeups for this series, there's such a big home court edge. Both teams rely a lot on their role players and those guys just play better at home. A big part of that is also because both of these teams also take a lot of jump shots and shooting percentages are almost always going to be better at home than on the road. Boston shot 51.1% in both Game 1 and Game 2, then shot 35.1% and 44.3% in games 3 & 4 in Washington, only to return to form an hit 52.9% at home in Game 5. Washington had one of it's worst shooting performances of the season in Game 5, hitting just 38.5% of their shots. Yet they still managed to score 101 points. Prior to that they had scored 111 or more in each of the previous 4. I look for their offense to return to form at home and the Celtics to struggle. Take Washington!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics -

I look for the Celtics to take back control of the series tonight. Washington won the last two, but both of those came at home. They lost each of the first two in Boston and I think with the shift back to Boston the Celtics will be the sharper team. Both of these teams rely a lot on role players and those guys just perform better at home. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Celtics won this series 4-3 with the road team losing all 7. With that said, I also expect a big game here from Boston's Isaiah Thomas, who totaled just 32 points in the two games in Washington after scoring 86 in the first two in Boston. I also like that the media is hyping up how much the Wizards starters are outplaying the Celtics. Adds even more of edge here for them. Take Boston!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs -

Each of the first 4 games in this series have been decided by 10 or more points and I wouldn't be surprised if that trend continued here with San Antonio taking Game 5 at home in convincing fashion. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 on their home floor, the Spurs responded by taking games 2 and 3 by locking down defensively. They got away from that in Game 4, plus the Rockets were the much more desperate team, trying to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I look for Popovich and the Spurs to make the proper defensive adjustments from Game 4 and win here by more than the number. It's also worth throwing out there that the Spurs are 81-28 (74%) in home playoff games since they moved to the AT&T Center back in 2002. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets -

It's amazing how much this series has shifted since the Rockets blowout win on the road in Game 1. As good as the Spurs have looked in the last two games, my money is on Houston to regain some of that form from the opener and tie this series up at 2-2. San Antonio has done a tremendous job holding the Rockets offense in check the last two games, but I don't see it happening three times in a row, especially on the road. A big part of Houston's struggles in Game 3, was they simply didn't make shots, as they were a mere 36.4% from the field. I also like that the Rockets are now the more desperate team in the series, as I think they got a bit to comfortable with how easy it was in Game 1. Take Houston!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Jazz +

I like the value here with the Jazz as a pretty decent sized home dog against the Warriors. Utah has shown some flashes against Golden State in this series and should get a big lift from this series shifting to their home floor. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Warriors, who have yet to lose in the playoffs, still without their head coach and playing on the road in one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play. I think there's a decent chance the Jazz wins this game outright, but I'll take the points for some extra insurance. Take Utah!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets -

This has been an interesting series to start. Houston did whatever they wanted in a blowout win in Game 1 on the road, only to turn around and get beat badly on the road in Game 2. I still like what I saw from the Rockets in the opener to back them at this price in Game 3 at home. Houston simply didn't shoot the ball well in Game 2 and failed to match the intensity of the Spurs. I expect a much more focused Rockets team tonight and those outside shots tend to fall at a higher rate at home. I'm confident the Spurs aren't going to hold them under 100 points for a second straight game. Another huge factor here is the loss of Tony Parker for San Antonio. While he's a far cry from his prime, it's never easy replacing minutes lost at the point guard position. Take Houston!

5* Celtics/Wizards NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Wizards -

I really like the Wizards to not only beat Boston in Game 3 at home, but I think they put away the Celtics in convincing fashion. Washington let two golden opportunities to steal one in Boston get away, as they had control of both of those games early and just couldn't finish off the Celtics in the 4th quarter. That was on the road, where the Wizards aren't the same team as they are at home. I look for Washington to once again get up early and this time finish the job. Keep in mind that all the motivation is with the Wizards down 0-2. As for Boston, this is a huge let down spot for them. They have won 6 straight overall and just stole two in a row at home. Keep in mind the Wizards were a perfect 3-0 at home against the Hawks in round 1. Take Washington!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors +

Toronto came up short in Game 1, but that proved to be a great spot for the Cavs off the long lay off. The Raptors lackluster defense and poor shooting night didn't help matters. Toronto is primed for a much better effort in Game 2 and I look for the Raptors to make the proper adjustments here to play a more competitive game from start to finish. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Raptors won this game or at least had a chance to take control late in the 4th quarter. DeRozan and Lowry only combined for 39 points and the Raptors lost by 11. I think those two are closer to 50 tonight. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

I got no problem laying the big number with Golden State in this one. I don't think the Jazz are going to make this much of a series. The Warriors are simply too talented. The Warriors have had over a week to rest up, practice and get back some of that chemistry with Durant. As good as Utah is defensively, I just don't think they are going to be able to much to slow down Golden State in this one. Keep in mind we are talking about a Jazz team that just laid it all on the line Sunday in LA to close out the Clippers on the road in Game 7. Getting only 1 day to rest and get focused on the Warriors isn't enough time. I think this gets ugly in a hurry. Take Golden State!

5* Raptors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +

I know Cleveland has had over a week off since they swept the Pacers, but I think that rest actually hurts them. While the Cavs swept Indiana, they were far from dominant in the series. In fact, Cleveland's largest win in the series was 6-points. Keep in mind that this is a team that really struggled down the stretch. I still think there's major concerns with their defense, which allowed the Pacers to score 100+ in all 4 games. Toronto didn't look great early on against a talented young Bucks team, but they closed out Milwaukee with 3 straight wins and I think they matchup really well with Cleveland. While the Cavs went 3-1 in the regular season and rested their stars in the only loss, all 3 of Cleveland's wins came by 4-poitns or less. I wouldn't be shocked if the Raptors won this game outright. Take Toronto!