|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-27-19||St. Louis +3 v. Boston College||Top||64-54||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. Louis +3 -109
Love the value here with St Louis getting points against the Eagles. This will be the Billikens first road game of the season after 6 straight at home, but I'm not concerned. St Louis is 5-1 with their only loss against currently No. 13 ranked Seton Hall.
These two have played 3 common opponents. Billikens are 3-0 and outscored those 3 teams by 13.2 ppg. BC is 2-1 and only outscoring those teams by 5 ppg. Eagles come in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time out shot just 36% from the field against DePaul.
Look for junior big man Hasahn French to have his way in this one. French is one of the best players in the American and should dominate inside not only scoring but on the boards. BC doesn't have a ton of size and rank near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebound rates.
Eagles are just 1-9 ATS last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home after 2 straight non-conference games. Take St Louis!
|11-26-19||Dayton -1 v. Virginia Tech||89-62||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dayton -1 -109
The Flyers are worth a look here as a pick'em against the Hokies on Tuesday. Most will be looking to take Virginia Tech here as they just knocked off No. 3 Michigan State last night 71-66 as a 13-point dog. Thing is, those big upset wins are often times the toughest to bounce back from.
That win also keeps Dayton from potentially overlooking the Hokies, who honestly weren't expected to do a lot this season. Flyers had a pretty impressive win of their own yesterday, as they throttled Georgia 80-61 to improve to 4-0 and 3-1 ATS.
One thing I really like about Dayton right now is they are red-hot from deep. They hit 10 3-pointers two games ago against Nebraska-Omaha and connected on 16 of 19 from long range against the Spartans. Flyers are 15-4 ATS last 19 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Take Dayton!
|11-26-19||Richmond v. Auburn -8||65-79||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Auburn -8 -109
Easy play here on Auburn laying single-digits against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is getting a little too much love here after yesterday's 62-52 upset win over Wisconsin. It's just not easy for these smaller teams to pull off back-to-back upsets, especially in a 2-day stretch.
Auburn showed they were all business in this tournament, as they improved to 6-0 with a 84-59 blowout win over New Mexico as a 9-point favorite. Keep in mind not only are the Tigers more athletic and talented, they are a much deeper team. Richmond had 3 different guys play 34+ minutes in the win over Wisconsin (only one bench player recorded double-digit minutes).
Tigers are now 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, 10-1 ATS last 11 tournament games and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 when playing on 1 or less day of rest. Take Auburn!
|11-26-19||Wisconsin -5 v. New Mexico||50-59||Loss||-109||6 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -5 -109
We are getting a great price here with the Badgers coming off yesterday's upset loss to Richmond. Wisconsin's defense did their part holding the Spiders to 62 points, but the offense just couldn't buy a basket, as they shot just 17-50 (34%) and were 7-27 (26%) from deep.
While the Badgers offense is not going to be an offensive juggernaut, I would expect them to shoot the ball a lot better today. One big reason for that is they should get some nice looks off turnovers. New Mexico coughed up the rock 24 times in yesterday's 25-point loss to Auburn.
With that loss the Lobos fell to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. New Mexico is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs a good defensive team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Wisconsin!
|11-26-19||Murray State -8 v. Weber State||Top||69-68||Loss||-110||3 h 26 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Early Bird PLAY OF THE MONTH on Murray State -8 -110
Love the value here with the Racers laying single-digits against the Wildcats. Both teams lost their opening round game yesterday in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Weber State had no business being a 7.5-point favorite yesterday against Wright State and it showed, as they got blown out of the gym, losing 72-57.
The Wildcats are now just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming against West Coast Baptist. In their other two games they lost 89-34 at Utah State as a 16.5-point dog and 71-56 as a 2-point home favorite against San Diego.
I know Racers were upset yesterday by LaSalle, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Murray State is still 3-2 on the season with their only other loss being a true road game at Tennessee. Racers are 10-4 ATS last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Take Murray State!
|11-26-19||Tenn-Martin +6 v. Gardner-Webb||64-81||Loss||-110||2 h 17 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tenn-Martin +6 -110
I like the value here with the Skyhawks as a decently priced dog in Tuesday's opening round matchup in the Cancun Challenge. There's no reason for Gardner Webb to be laying this kind of number here. The Runnin' Bulldogs have started out 0-5 and while a lot of those have come on the road against Power 5 teams, they also lost at home to Furman.
Another thing here is Gardner Webb has to be running on fumes, as they have played 4 straight on the road before making the trip to Cancun for this tournament. The most recent coming Friday at South Carolina. While Tenn-Martin has also played their last 3 on the road, they have been off since last Tuesday.
Skyhawks are 8-1 ATS last 9 games vs a team that's been outscored by 4+ points/game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Tenn-Martin!
|11-25-19||Lakers v. Spurs +5.5||114-104||Loss||-110||10 h 3 m||Show|
3* NBA - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Spurs +5½ -110
No surprise here that we are getting value with San Antonio at home against the Lakers. The Spurs have to be one of the biggest disappointments this season, as they are just 6-11 and had lost 8 straight prior to beating the Knicks on Saturday. Lakers on the other hand are a massive public team and they come in having won 7 straight and 14 of 15.
While LA is a profitable 9-7 ATS on the season, the books have made some adjustments of late and they have failed to cover 3 in a row. They are also just 3-4 ATS on the road compared to 6-3 ATS at home. Key here is the Lakers are playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of just 4 days and they barely won last time out 109-108 at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. James and AD both played 35+ in their back-to-back games Friday/Saturday.
I just don't think the Lakers are going to have the energy here to compete against a San Antonio team that is going to give it all they got. Spurs are 16-5 ATS last 21 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take San Antonio!
|11-25-19||Northwestern v. Bradley -2||78-51||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bradley -2 -104
The Braves are definitely worth a look here as a small favorite against the Wildcats. Bradley has won 4 straight since an opening night loss at St Joseph's, who has looked pretty good early on. These two have played 2 common opponents, Northwestern is just 1-1 with 0.0 scoring margin, while the Braves are 2-0 with a +10.5 ppg scoring margin.
This is going to be a long season for the Wildcats, who lost their top 3 scores from a team that won just 13 games (4-16 Big Ten) and finished a pathetic 316th in scoring at 65.9 ppg. This is a very young team and will be going on the road for the first time after playing 4 straight at home.
Bradley on the other hand has a lot coming back from a team that caught fire in the 2nd half of the season and wound up making the NCAA Tournament by winning the MVC Conference title. Braves will bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Bradley!
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams +3.5||Top||45-6||Loss||-110||36 h 23 m||Show|
5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers.
I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams.
It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you.
Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles!
|11-25-19||CS-Northridge v. Green Bay -7.5||84-85||Loss||-109||9 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Green Bay -7½ -109
Easy play here with the Phoenix laying single digits against the Matadors. CS-Northridge has started out 0-6 with all 6 losses coming by double-digits. They have shown absolutely no ability to be competitive and it's resulted in a 1-5 ATS mark during their awful start.
I expect it to continue here. Wisconsin-GB is just 1-3, but their 3 losses have all come on the road against quality teams in Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin. They not only are the better team, but have a big edge here in rest, as CS-Northridge just played yesterday against Colgate, while the Phoenix are playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 13th.
Struggling early is nothing new for the Matadors, as they are 22-47-3 ATS last 72 non-conference games. Phoenix on the other hand are a dominant 12-4 ATS last 16 off a loss and have covered 5 of 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay!
|11-25-19||Loyola Maryland -2 v. IUPU-Indianapolis||81-77||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Loyola Maryland -2 -109
The Greyhounds are worth a look here a small favorite against IUPUI in the first round of the Cayman Islands Mainland. Loyola-MD has covered 3 straight and are fresh off a mere 4-point loss at George Mason as a 8-point dog. They are just 2-3 overall, but have played 4 of 5 on the road.
IUPUI has a big upset win at USF, but that's it. They also followed up that win over the Bulls with a 23-point loss at Loyola-Illinois. The Jaguars are just 1-3 ATS on the season. In the loss to the Ramblers they gave up 85 points and that's worth noting, as they are 0-6 ATS last 3 seasons after allowing 85 or more.
Greyhounds are 19-7 ATS last 26 on the road after covering a game on the road where they lost outright. IUPUI is also a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been matched up against a team with a losing record. Take Loyola-MD!
|11-24-19||Hofstra -2 v. CS-Fullerton||79-57||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Hofstra -2 -109
I got no problem laying a short number here with the Pride at CS-Fullerton. Hofstra just went on the road an upset UCLA 88-78 as a 14.5-point dog on Thursday. That's a big time momentum boost for this team. It definitely makes the quick turnaround on the road a lot easier.
I also think they could catch Fullerton a bit flat here. The Titans only game in the last 11 days is a home game against Stanislaus State. Their last game against a Div. 1 opponent was back on Nov. 13th. Not to mention this is a team that's picked to finish near the bottom of the Big West Conference.
Pride are 21-7 ATS last 28 as a road favorite of 3 or less and 12-4 ATS last 16 non-conference games. Fullerton is just 2-9 ATS last 11 at home and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a road game. Take Hofstra!
|11-24-19||Middle Tennessee v. Ohio -1.5||63-75||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -1½ -109
Definitely worth a look here on Ohio as a small home favorite. The Bobcats come in having lost 3 straight, but those 3 defeats have come against Villanova, Baylor and Utah. Prior to that they had won their first 3 games, which included upset road wins over St Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog and Iona as a 4.5-point dog.
Ohio has shot the ball well at 45.3% and are averaging 9 made 3-pointers. Blue Raiders have really struggled with strong offense teams that can shoot from deep. Middle Tennessee is just 2-13 ATS last 15 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers and 3-12 ATS last 15 vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field.
Blue Raiders are just 9-18 ATS last 27 as a dog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Ohio!
|11-24-19||Cowboys +6 v. Patriots||9-13||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cowboys +6 -115
The Cowboys are definitely worth a look here as a near touchdown dog against the Patriots. New England was able to bounce back from that ugly loss to the Ravens with a 17-10 win at Philly last week, but that was not the kind of performance you would expect to see out of the Pats coming off their bye.
The defense was sensational after a slow start, but the offense was far from impressive. Tom Brady is going to play, but he doesn't look 100%. They also got a lot of skill players and offensive linemen banged up right now. Dallas has the guys on defense to keep them in check.
I also think Cowboys offense is the kind of offense that can have success against this Patriots defense. New England is built more to stop the pass than they are the run. I think Dallas can move the ball behind Zeke and keep this within one-score all the way.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 75% or more of their games and come in having won 6/7 of their last 8 games are just 10-29 in the 2nd half of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 74% system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Dallas!
|11-24-19||Air Force v. Indiana State -2||74-84||Win||100||6 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Indiana State -2 -109
I like the value here with the Sycamores as a small favorite against the Falcons. Air Force comes in having lost 3 straight and have simply not shot shot the ball well. During the losing streak they have hit 42% or worse from the field in each game. They are also getting ominated on the board and losing the turnover battle.
Indiana State is just 1-4, but they got their first win last time out against Loyola-Marymount, winning 72-60 as a slim the 3-point favorite. That's the same Loyola team that just a day earlier beat Air Force by 14. Falcons are just 2-7-1 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and the Sycamores are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a team from the MWC. Take Indiana State!
|11-24-19||Broncos +4 v. Bills||3-20||Loss||-100||5 h 8 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Broncos +4 +100
I like the value here with Denver getting more than a field goal against the Bills on Sunday. I just feel these are two teams with very misleading records. The Broncos are no where close to as bad as their 3-7 record would suggest. We saw that in last week's near upset of the Vikings on the road. They have 5 losses by just 1 score.
As for the Bills, they are not as good as their 7-3 record. Buffalo has simply played a cupcake schedule to get to this point. The Bills 7 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins (twice) and Redskins. Not a single one of those teams currently has a winning record and Tennessee (5-5) is the only one with more than 3 wins.
Denver's offense isn't great, but it's looked a lot better without Joe Flacco in their Brandon Allen has played well and they don't need a great offense to win games, as they still have a top tier defense. With the limitations the Bills have on offense, I like the Broncos to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance. Take Denver!
|11-24-19||Raiders -3 v. Jets||3-34||Loss||-110||5 h 7 m||Show|
4* NFL - Early Bird ATS HEAVY HITTER on Raiders -3 -110
Oakland is definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point favorite against the Jets. For whatever reason this Raiders team just doesn't get the respect they deserve. If the season ended today, Oakland would be in as the final Wild Card and a win here puts them tied with the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC West.
The Jets are simply getting too much love after a couple of wins against a couple of bad NFC East teams in the Giants and Redskins. New York wasn't a very talented team to start with and are dealing with all kinds of injuries right now. I think the fact Oakland didn't play well last week against Cincinnati is also playing into the number, but that was a bit of a misleading final as they outgained the Bengals by 140 yards.
Jets are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 at home and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of November. Raiders aer 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Oakland!
|11-24-19||Bucs +4 v. Falcons||35-22||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +4 -110
I like the value here with Tampa Bay getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. I know Atlanta has looked better of late with back-to-back blowout wins on the road against the Saints and Panthers, but I think it has them overvalued here against a Bucs team that is going to keep fighting despite their struggles.
Division games are often closer than expected and that's definitely been the case of late with these two teams. Each of the last 3 meetings in the series have been decided by 5 or fewer points.
Atlanta has also not been good in this spot. Falcons are just 3-12 ATS last 15 at home off a win by 10 or more against a division rival, 4-14 ATS last 18 after two straight games allowing 14 or fewer points and 14-34 ATS last 48 at home off two straight covers. Take Tampa Bay!
|11-24-19||Mississippi State v. Coastal Carolina +6||81-56||Loss||-110||3 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Coastal Carolina +6 -110
I like the value here with the Chanticleers as a decently priced dog against Mississippi State. I just feel Coastal Carolina will be the more motivated team here in the 3rd place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. It certainly helps the game is being played on their home court.
Coastal Carolina has one of the better coaches not many people know about in Cliff Ellis and his Chanticleers have shown they can compete with the big boys in this tournament. They knocked Utah 79-57 before losing a closely contested game 77-65 to Baylor.
Mississippi State is coming off a crushing loss to No. 17 Villanova, where they gave the Wildcats all they could handle. For a team that only plays 7 guys, I just think they are poised to come out a little flat here. Take Coastal Carolina!
|11-23-19||Boise State -8.5 v. Utah State||56-21||Win||100||13 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State -8½ -110
Some might be hesitant to play this game because of the uncertainty with both starting quarterbacks. However, I feel there's value here with Boise State laying single digits. I just think the Broncos have the much better QB depth and there's a more likely chance that the Aggies star quarterback Jordan Love doesn't play.
Thing is, even with Love I don't know that Utah State could keep this close. Boise State is one of the best Group of 5 teams out there and got a ton at stake in this one. A loss here would likely cost the Broncos the Mountain Division title and a spot in the MWC title game.
I think you can really see the talent difference in this game by looking at how these two have performed against the 3 common opponents they have played. Boise State is outscoring these 3 teams by 3.7 ppg, while Utah is getting outscored by 15.6 ppg. Defense is where the Broncos were much better. They only gave up 21.3 ppg and 326.7 ypg against these 3 team, where Utah State allowed 31.3 ppg and 484.7 ypg.
Broncos are 72-48 ATS (60%) ATS in their last 120 road games and are 7-3-2 ATS last 12 conference games and 8-0-1 ATS last 9 after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. Take Boise State!
|11-23-19||Lakers v. Grizzlies +7.5||109-108||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
3* NBA - Situational ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Grizzlies +7½ -115
I really like the spot and the price we are getting with Memphis as a decently priced home dog against the Lakers on Saturday. No question LA is the better team, but this is all about motivation and rest.
We know we are going to get a max effort here from the Grizzlies against a top tier team at home like the Lakers. Especially given that Memphis is playing this game on a full 3-days of rest. The same can't be said for the Lakers, who are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an up-and-down fast paced game against the Thunder last night that ended in a 130-127 win.
Both LeBron and AD played 35+ minutes in that win. I could see the Lakers resting one or both of those guys or at least limiting their minutes. Lakers are also a mere 9-19 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as a mid-range favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Memphis!
|11-23-19||Boise State v. Pacific +4||82-76||Loss||-109||8 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacific +4 -109
I like the value here with Damon Stoudamire's Tigers getting points at home against the Broncos. Boise State comes in off a thrilling an emotional 72-68 OT win at home over BYU and I think it has the Broncos primed for a letdown on the road against a hungry and what looks to be an improved Pacific team.
Keep in mind Boise State did not play well at all in their first road game, getting annihilated by Oregon 106-75 as a mere 10.5-point dog. Last time out the Tigers won won 64-60 at home against Coppin State, but failed to cover as a 13-point favorite. That's actually a positive here, as they are a dominant 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite.
Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and a mere 8-21-1 ATS last 30 vs a team that simply has a winning record. Take Pacific!
|11-23-19||Denver +7 v. Cal-Riverside||49-73||Loss||-109||7 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Denver +7 -109
Really like the value here with the Pioneers getting what I feel is a big number against UC-Riverside. I get Denver hasn't looked great in their first two road games, but that was against much better competition. The Anteaters aren't just a team they can keep it close against, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
UC-Riverside just isn't good enough on the offensive end to be laying this many points against a similarly skilled opponent. The Anteaters are only averaging 60.0 ppg and that's with a 76-point outburst in their last game against non-D1 foe Redlands.
Coming off a win is also a good time to fade Riverside, as they are just 3-14 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 1-9 ATS last 10 after holding their previous opponent to 60 or fewer points (held Redlands to 44). Take Denver!
|11-23-19||Troy +14 v. UL-Lafayette||3-53||Loss||-110||8 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Troy +14 -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Trojans and that high-powered offense. Troy comes into this game averaging 39.0 ppg and 478 ypg. Numbers that are even better in Sun Belt play, as they are scoring 43.3 ppg and putting up 505.5 ypg against conference opponents this season.
I get Lafayette has a really good offense of their own and have the better defense on paper, but all signs here point to a back and forth shootout. One that I wouldn't be surprised at all if Troy won outright. We know we are going to get a big effort from the Trojans, as they still need a win to get bowl eligible and next week's game at home against App State is far from a sure thing.
As for the Ragin' Cajuns, they are comfortably sitting at 5-1 and 1-game up on Arkansas State for the top spot in the West Division. Which is basically a 2-game lead given they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss here is not the end of the world. They showed signs of being a bit complacent last week, as they only beat South Alabama by 10 as a 28-point favorite and were outgained by the Jaguars 467 to 391.
Troy is off a 63-27 blowout win at Texas State and prior to that beat a good Georgia Southern team 49-28 at home as a 2.5-point dog. Trojans are 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road after a win by 35 or more , 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 12-4-1 ATS last 17 conference games and 7-2 ATS last 9 in the month of November. Take Troy!
|11-23-19||Rider v. Columbia||87-63||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Rider PK -109
The Broncs are worth a look here as a pick'em on the road against the Lions. I get Columbia's 1-4 start can be attributed to playing 4 of their first 5 on the road, but their lone win was a mere 12-point victory at home against Binghamton, who is one of the worst teams in the America East Conference.
Rider's last two have come as dogs against a couple of decent teams in Arizona State and UMass. That's worth noting, as the Broncs are a strong 30-8 ATS in their last 38 after playing 2 straight as a dog.
There's also a strong system in play favoring the Broncs. Underdogs that are an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games are 31-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Rider!
|11-23-19||Syracuse v. Louisville -9||Top||34-56||Win||100||101 h 55 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -9 -110
Easy play for me on the Cardinals laying single-digits at home against the Orange. I just think we are getting a great price with Louisville due the fact that Syracuse finally showed some life in last week's 49-6 win as a 10.5-point road dog at Duke. That would be great if the Blue Devils were playing well, but Duke is on a free fall. Blue Devils have been outgained now by 100+ yards in 3 straight and have lost the yardage battle in 6 straight.
Even though they won by a whopping 43-points, Syracuse only outgained the Blue Devils by 116. The only other two teams the Orange have won the yardage battle against all season are Holy Cross and Liberty. This is a team that got outgained by 250 yards to Maryland and 243 a couple weeks ago against BC.
Louisville has one of the best offenses people don't know about. They are averaging 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg. What's impressive is it's come against opponents who on average are allowing just 25.1 ppg and 377 ypg. They should score at will here and while the defense isn't great, I think they easily win by two touchdowns.
Orange are 2-11 ATS last 13 off an upset win by 14 or more points and have lost in this spot by an average of 20 ppg. Take Louisville!
|11-23-19||Manhattan v. Elon +1.5||69-64||Loss||-110||5 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Elon +1½ -110
The Fighting Phoenix are definitely worth a look as a home dog against Manhattan on Saturday. Elon comes in having lost 3 straight, but all 3 were on the road against Power 5 teams. They didn't sniff a win in any of those games, but did cover the number in all 3 matchups.
The Jaspers haven't looked like a team that many thought would contend for the MAAC title. They only won by 11 at home in their opener against Delaware State and last time out fell 57-70 at Samford, who is a middle of the pack team in the Southern Conference.
Manhattan is also a team that relies a lot on turnovers, as they don't shoot the ball well (37.9% from the field on the season). That's a problem against the Fighting Phoenix, who rank inside the Top 20 in the country in offensive turnover rate, giving up the rock just 14.5% of their possessions. A really remarkable stat given their last 3 games were against Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. Take Elon!
|11-23-19||Nebraska -6 v. Maryland||54-7||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Big Money ATS MONEYMAKER on Nebraska -6 -110
The Cornhuskers are worth a look here laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Terps. Nebraska is simply showing value here because of how disappointing a season they have had and the fact that they enter having lost 4 straight.
As bad as it's been for the Cornhuskers, it's been even worse for the Terps. Maryland just can't catch a break with the injury bug. They just don't have enough healthy good players to be competitive. The evidence is in the numbers. Terps are getting outgained by 221.2 yards/game in Big Ten play. Nebraska in comparison is only getting outgained by 12.4 yards/game.
There's also a big motivational edge here with Nebraska still having an outside shot at bowl game if they can win out, while the Terps have no shot at a bowl and are struggling to just keep games close. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cornhuskers won going away. Take Nebraska!
|11-23-19||Western Kentucky v. Southern Miss -3.5||28-10||Loss||-110||30 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss -3½ -110
I really like the value here with Southern Miss laying a short number at home against Western Kentucky. Not only do I think the Golden Eagles are the better team, they have a massive motivation edge in this one.
Thanks to LA Tech having both their starting QB and top wide out suspended, Southern Miss has a legit shot at winning the West and playing in the C-USA championship Game. They do need the Bulldogs to lose at UAB, but they are still without those two suspended players and are a 7-point dog. However, the most important thing is winning this game, so we can expect a max effort.
Western Kentucky is just 1-game back of first in the East, but trail both FAU and Marshall and lost both the head-to-head matchups against those two teams. They are already bowl eligible, so there's not much at stake. Not to mention they are poised for a letdown off that big upset win over Arkansas last time out. Take Southern Miss!
|11-23-19||South Alabama +10 v. Georgia State||15-28||Loss||-109||5 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on South Alabama +10 -109
The Jaguars are worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Panthers. South Alabama is just 1-9 overall and have lost 8 straight, but that has not deterred this team from playing hard down the stretch. Just last week they only lost by 10 at Lafayette, who is tied with Appalachian State for the best record in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars easily covered as a 28-point dog and are now 5-1 ATS last 6 games.
As for Georgia State, I think the Panthers could be in for a bit of a letdown here off last week's blowout loss at home to Appalachian State. That was a massive game for Georgia State, as they were in a position to where if they won that game and won out, they would have won the East and would be headed to the Sun Belt title game. Now they are simply playing for pride with a big rivalry game on deck against Georgia Southern.
Panthers are just 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and have failed to cover 6 straight in Weeks 10 thru Week 13. They are also 0-7-1 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 4-12-2 ATS last 16 conference games. Jaguars are 7-1 ATS last 8 conference games. Take South Alabama!
|11-23-19||Ole Miss v. Memphis -4||86-87||Loss||-105||2 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -4 -105
I really like the value here with Memphis laying a short number against the Rebels at home. I think we are getting value with the Tigers because of the recent suspension handed to star freshmen big man James Wiseman and the fact that they only beat Arkansas-Little Rock by 10 as a 16.5-point favorite last time out.
I just don't think that was a focused Memphis team in that recent victory over the Trojans. Which says a lot that they were still able to win by double-digits. Keep in mind the news of Wiseman's suspension came just hours before the game. I expect a much more focused Tigers team on Saturday.
As for Ole Miss, they are 4-0, but that was to be expected given their cupcake schedule to start the season. Rebels 4 wins are against Arkansas State, Norfolk State, Western Michigan and Seattle. All teams they were favored by at least 18.5 points against. This is a massive step up in competition and it's their first true road game of the season. Take Memphis!
|11-22-19||Temple +10.5 v. USC||Top||70-61||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +10½ -109
I love the value here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. USC has got off to a strong start with a 5-0 record in their first 5 games, but they won by 7 at home against Pepperdine last time out and also only beat Portland at home by 11.
Owls have also not lost with a 3-0 record, but they are 0-3 ATS and I think we are getting value because of their poor showing against the number. It's not like they haven't been close to covering. They won by 8 as a 12-point favorite against Drexel, by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite against Morgant St and by 5 as a 6-point favorite at LaSalle.
I think the Owls have a decent edge here being the fresher team having played 3 games to USC's 5 and the fact that they are playing this game on 5 days rest, while the Trojans are on just 2 days of rest.
Owls are 40-23 ATS last 63 on the road off a no-cover where they won as a favorite. Take Temple!
|11-22-19||Houston +8 v. Oregon||66-78||Loss||-109||11 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Houston +8 -109
No question the Ducks should be favored at home, but this is just too many points for the Cougars to be catching in this one. Houston is simply undervalued here after failing to cover their last two games, where they lost by 1 as a 11.5-point home favorite to BYU and only beat Rice by 9 as a 13-point favorite.
Oregon on the other hand is overvalued after covering 3 straight. The Ducks are just 16-26 ATS last 42 at home against top tier teams that come in shooting 45% or better from the field while holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field.
Cougars are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games, 11-3 ATS last 14 off a game where they won but didn't cover as a favorite and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3. Take Houston!
|11-22-19||Towson v. Buffalo -5||73-76||Loss||-109||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -5 -109
Easy play here on the Bulls laying what I feel is a really short number against the Tigers. Both teams played and lost in the opening round of the Charleston Classic. Buffalo had the much better showing losing by just 11 to UConn, while Townson got annihilated by 22 against Xavier. Bulls only trailed by 6 with just over 2 minutes to play.
Buffalo is considered by many the favorite to win the MAC this year, while Towson is a middle of the pack team in the Colonial. Even though the Bulls didn't cover as a 2.5-point dog against the Huskies, they are still 21-8-2 ATS last 31 on a neutral site.
Towson is just 6-15 ATS last 23 when playing their 2nd game in 3 days. They are also 6-15 ATS last 21 on the road after failing to cover and 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road when they come in having failed to cover 2 of 3. Take Buffalo!
|11-22-19||Maryland-Baltimore County v. Eastern Michigan||45-62||Loss||-110||4 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Maryland-Baltimore County PK -110
I like the value here with UMBC this afternoon in opening round action in the Jamaica Classic. The Retrievers will forever be remembered as the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and UMBC has the looks of a team that could get back to the big dance by winning the America East this year.
Whether or not that happens, I really like them to take down Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have started out 4-0, but three of their games were so lopsided they didn't even have lines. They did upset North Texas on the road as a 9-point dog, but that Mean Green team is picked to finish near the bottom of the AAC this year.
Prior to covering against North Texas, Eastern Michigan was working on a 1-9 ATS run in non-conference games. Retrievers are 5-1 ATS last 6 on a neutral site and 8-1 ATS last 9 in tournament games. Take UMBC!
|11-22-19||Cleveland State +7 v. NC-Wilmington||47-46||Win||100||2 h 28 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland State +7 -105
I'll take the points with the Vikings in this matchup of two small conference bottom feeders. Cleveland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Horizon, while UNC-Wilmington is picked to finish near the basement of the Colonial.
The value with the Vikings in this one stems from their 1-4 start to the season, but it's really not that surprising to see Cleveland State sitting where they are. The schedule has been brutal, as their 4 losses are road games against Minnesota, Missouri State and South Carolina and a home loss to a really good FIU team.
Not only should facing a similarly skilled opponent help the Vikings, but they are a team that likes to play fast. That's evident by their 11-3 ATS mark over the last 3 seasons in games against up-tempo teams that average 62+ shots/game. Seahawks are just 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat NC Wesleyan 113-53 last time out). Take Cleveland State!
|11-21-19||Pelicans v. Suns -3.5||Top||124-121||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
5* NBA - TNT PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns -3½ -110
Love the value here with Phoenix as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. I get New Orleans has won two straight, but let's not get carried away. Those two wins were both at home against a couple of struggling teams in the Warriors and Blazers. New Orleans is still just 5-9 overall and are 1-5 on the road, where they are giving up a ridiculous 120.8 ppg.
Phoenix has lost 3 of 4 and will be without their two big free agent pickups in Ricky Rubio and Aron Baynes, but they still got more than enough talent to beat the Pelicans by 4 at home.
Keep in mind that two of their 3 losses in their last 4 were home games against two of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and Celtics. The other a mere 4-point loss against a red-hot Sacramento team. Take Phoenix!
|11-21-19||California +20.5 v. Duke||52-87||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on California +20½ -110
I really like the value here with Cal as a massive road dog against Duke in the opening round of Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden. You just know that with how much the public loves to back the Blue Devils the line is inflated.
After covering their first 3, Duke was a 28.5-point favorite at home against Georgia State and wound up only winning by 11. I'm not saying the Golden Bears got a shot at pulling off the upset, but I fully expect them to make a game of it.
Blue Devils are a team that loves to get out in transition, while Cal is a team that wants to make you play in the halfcourt. I think they can keep Duke from running and really force them to work offensively, which should allow them to keep it close.
Golden Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games off 3 or more straight home wins, while Duke is just 2-11 ATS last 13 vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Cal!
|11-21-19||Xavier v. Towson +9.5||73-51||Loss||-109||8 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Towson +9½ -109
I really like the value here with the Tigers as a near double-digit dog against the Musketeers. Xavier is off to a 4-0 start and to no surprise as a lot of people are expecting a big bounce back season after last year struggles.
However, the books were well aware the public was going to be on the Musketeers and have overpriced them. Xavier has failed to cover in all 4 wins and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
This Towson team is also no joke. The Tigers only lost by 6 last time out as a 18-point road dog against a really talented Florida team. With that cover they are now 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Towson!
|11-21-19||North Florida v. Iowa -14.5||68-83||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa -14½ -113
I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in a win and cover at home against North Florida. I was impressed with how Iowa bounced back from that ugly home loss to DePaul with a win and cover against Oral Roberts.
The Ospreys have won 4 straight, but it's come against some bad competition. The only real quality opponent they have faced is Florida on the road and they lost by 15. Keep in mind the Gators really haven't looked good early on, so it's not really asking much for Iowa to win by that same amount.
Hawkeyes are a solid 31-17 in their last 48 at home vs a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games and 8-0 ATS at home vs teams like North Florida that like to play at a fast pace an average 62+ shots/game. Take Iowa!
|11-21-19||Loyola Marymount +3.5 v. Air Force||78-64||Win||100||5 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Loyola Marymount +3½ -110
I'm confident the Lions will cash in a cover here as a small dog against Air Force, as these two face off in the opening round of the Junkanoo Jam in the Bahamas. The Falcons come in off a close loss at TCU, where they were right there with a chance to win late and easily covered as a 16-point dog. It was Air Force's third straight cover and I think it has them getting a little too much love in this spot.
The Falcons just played that game at TCU on Monday and have not played at home since Nov. 9th. Loyola is going to be the much fresher team in this one. They have been at home since Nov. 9th and haven't played since Saturday.
Air Force is just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 on the road after covering 3 of their last 4 and a mere 3-12 ATS last 15 on the road off a cover in a straight up loss as a dog. Lions are 21-10 ATS last 31 in non-conference road games. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|11-20-19||BYU v. Boise State +1||68-72||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State +1 -105
I love this spot and price with the Broncos at basically a pick'em at home against the Cougars. BYU comes into this game off a thrilling 72-71 win at Houston as a 11.5-point underdog, but I think it has them overvalued. Prior to beating Houston they only beat Southern Utah by 5 as a 11.5-point dog and lost by 5 at home to San Diego State as a 4-point favorite.
Boise State comes in just 1-2 and off two straight losses, but one of those was at Oregon, who looks like a legit Pac-12 contender and the other was to UC-Irvine, the favorites to win the Big West. I think we get a really big effort here from the Broncos on 4 days rest, while BYU could be a bit sluggish off the big upset win.
Offense has not been a problem for Boise, who is averaging 87 ppg and shooting 47% from the field. That's worth noting as the Cougars are just 5-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Boise State!
|11-20-19||Rockets +2 v. Nuggets||95-105||Loss||-109||10 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Rockets +2 -109
I get this isn't the best scheduling spot for Houston, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, but I just think the books have factored that into the number and the value is with the Rockets as an underdog.
Houston comes in having won and covered 8 in a row. The concerns of how Russell Westbrook and James Harden could go exist can be thrown out the window. Harden has to be the MVP frontrunner right now, as he's averaging 39.2 ppg to go with 7.6 apg and 5.7 rpg. As for Westbrook, he's doing just fine at 21.6 ppg, 7.1 apg and 8.4 rpg. I just see no reason to back off this team with how they are playing right now.
Denver is also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Houston!
|11-20-19||UC-Davis +4 v. CS Sacramento||Top||51-61||Loss||-104||10 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UC-Davis +4 -104
Easy play here on UC Davis as a dog against Big Sky bottom feeder Sacramento State. The Aggies come in at just 2-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have also played 4 of 5 away from home. Sacramento State is 2-0, but their toughest opponent was UC-Riverside, who expected to be at or near the bottom of the Big West.
UC Davis has been very profitable in this spot, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. The Hornets defense has looked great against a couple of weak opponents, but are just 2-10 ATS last 12 times they have faced a team like UC Davis that is shooting 48% or better from the field and have lost in this spot by almost 15 ppg. Take UC Davis!
|11-20-19||Magic +4 v. Raptors||97-113||Loss||-115||9 h 56 m||Show|
3* NBA - Raptors/Magic ATS WINNER on Magic +4 -115
I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER.
I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright.
Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games.
As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6.
Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER!
|11-20-19||Siena +5.5 v. Yale||89-100||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Siena +5½ -110
The Saints are worth a look here as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Siena has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS to start out the season and have done so against some decent competition. Last time out the Saints nearly upset the Ivy League favorites on the road, as they fell 56-59 at Harvard, easily covering as a 10.5-point dog.
Now they face another Ivy team in Yale, who has lost two straight and really struggling to get their offense going. In their 3 games against Div. 1 opponents the Bulldogs have shot 39% or worse from the field. That's a big concern, as Siena has been rock solid on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have held Harvard to 40% shooting, St. Bonaventure to 38% and Xavier to 43%.
Not a big surprise to see Yale struggle, as they lost 3 starters, including their best player in Miye Oni. Siena will have the best player on the floor in this one in sophomore point guard Jalen Pickett. Last year Pickett had to basically do it all on his own as a freshmen. This year he's got some help. Mount St. Mary's transfer Donald Carey is putting in 16 ppg and Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns is at 15.5 ppg. Take Siena!
|11-19-19||Suns +3 v. Kings||116-120||Loss||-109||11 h 21 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Suns +3 -109
I actually think we are getting some decent value here with Phoenix due to the Suns playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and having just got annihilated by the Celtics last night 99-85 at home.
Thing is, Phoenix had 3 days off before playing Boston, so the back-to-back isn't a as big a deal. Suns are also a team that has been very profitable in this spot, going 9-4 ATS last 13 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season, covering by almost 11 points/game.
These two already played once this season and the Suns won 124-95. Phoenix did as they pleased, shooting 50% from the field and racking up 31 assists. That result combined with the Kings off a 100-99 win at home over the Celtics adds even more value.
Home teams revening a road loss of 20 or more and are coming off a home win by 3 or less are a mere 21-54 (28%) ATS since 1996. Take Phoenix!
|11-19-19||New Mexico +1 v. UTEP||63-66||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +1 -110
I believe the fact that UTEP has started out 3-0 has the Miners getting way to much respect here at home against the Lobos. I would definitely have New Mexico favored in this one.
Thanks to a lot of transfer additions, the Lobos have one of the most talented teams in the MWC this year and they have lived up to the hype early on with a 4-0 start, all 4 wins coming by double-digits.
UTEP simply hasn't played anyone. Their 3 wins are against the likes of New Mexico Highlands, New Mexico State and East New Mexico. That's two of three games against non-D1 competition. They should be averaging a lot more than 76.3 ppg.
I just don't see them keeping pace with New Mexico, who averages 93.0 ppg on 54% shooting. Lobos are simply the more talented team and it wouldn't shocked me if they made it 5 straight wins by double-digits. Take New Mexico!
|11-19-19||Fairfield +26 v. Maryland||55-74||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +26 -105
I think we are getting a great price here with the Stags as a massive road dog against the No. 7 ranked Terps. Maryland hasn't had to sweat anything early on and I just think they are going to have a hard time giving a pretty mediocre Fairfield team their full attention.
Terps have covered their last two, beating Rhode Island by 18 as a 12-point favorite and Oakland by 30 as a 18.5-point favorite. This will be the most they have been asked to lay since they were a 28.5-point favorite in their opener against Holy Cross, a game in which they failed to cover.
Stags are just 1-3 SU, but are 3-1 ATS and could easily be 4-0 both SU and ATS. They have two losses by 4-points or less and 9-point loss in OT, which was the only game they failed to cover as a 5-point dog. Fairfield has 3 double-digit scorer, led by Jesus Cruz's 19.5 ppg. Even if this gets ugly early, they should be able to climb through the backdoor and cash a winner. Take Fairfield!
|11-19-19||Ohio -20 v. Bowling Green||Top||66-24||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Ohio/BG MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ohio -20 -110
I like the Bobcats to cruise to a easy win and cover at Bowling Green Tuesday night. Ohio may have had their MAC title hopes crushed with back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Miami (OH) and Western Michigan, but there's still a ton to play for in these last two games, as the Bobcats need to win out to make a bowl.
Ohio may have just 1 more win on the resume than the Falcons, but the talent gap between these two is really noticeable. While the Bobcats are just 3-3 in MAC play, they are outscoring teams by 2 ppg and outgaining them by 23.6 ypg. Bowling Green is getting outscored by 16.3 ppg and 141.4 ypg in MAC play.
The biggest thing for me here is I just don't see the Falcons defense being able to keep the Bobcats from putting up a huge number. Ohio averages 200 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry on the ground. They will be facing a BG defense that gives up 212 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry.
Also, Falcons have nothing left to play for after last week's 44-3 loss to Miami (OH), as the best they can finish is 5-7. BG is also just 3-11 ATS last 14 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 1-7 ATS as a dog of any number this season. Take Ohio!
|11-19-19||Manhattan +5 v. Samford||57-70||Loss||-105||9 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +5 -105
I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Bulldogs. Manhattan is off to a strong 2-0 start and just won outright as a home dog against Albany in their last game. Jaspers won that game holding the Great Danes to just 28.3% shooting.
Manhattan should be greatly improved over the 11-win team from last year, as they brought back 85.3% of their minutes and 10 different guys who started at least 1 game. One thing that killed last year was turnovers and that was a direct result of their lack of experience at the guard position.
More than anything, I think this Jaspers defense is built to win on the road with how they defend the ball. The offense hasn't been great, but they are due to shoot the ball well. Samford's defense isn't great and have already allowed 90+ on two occasions.
Samford likes to play fast and that's another plus for Manhattan. Jaspers are 42-20 ATS last 62 vs up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots/game. Jaspers are also 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 55 or less and 20-8 last 28 after a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Take Manhattan!
|11-19-19||College of Charleston v. Marshall||76-66||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on College of Charleston PK -104
Marshall is a team I feel is worth fading early on. Thundering Herd won 23 games last year and did so averaging an impressive 80.5 ppg (28th in the country). They just don't have the offensive fire-power this year having lost two prolific scorers in Jon Elmore (20.3 ppg) and C.J. Burks (17.7 ppg).
Thru their first 3 games the Herd are averaging just 67 ppg with 70 being their highest output of the season. Marshall did cover last time out at Notre Dame as a 19-point dog, but they also failed to cover their first two against Robert Morris and Toledo, both at home.
Charleston is the team to beat in the Colonial this year and are primed for a bounce back after an ugly game against Oklahoma State, where they couldn't make a thing (32.7%) and the Cowboys couldn't miss (51.9%).
Marshall is just 3-12 ATS last 15 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons when listed anywhere from +3 to -3. Cougars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from C-USA and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 in a row. Take Charleston!
|11-18-19||SIU-Edwardsville +15.5 v. South Dakota||56-71||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville +15½ -109
Big time value here with the Cougars as a big road dog against the Coyotes. South Dakota State has started out 4-0 with a 3-1 ATS mark. I feel it has them laying way too big a number here against a SIU Edwardsville team that has shown they can compete against some good teams.
This reminds me a lot of South Dakota's home game against Florida A&M, where they were being asked to lay 17.5 and ended up squeaking out a 3-point victory.
Cougars are an experienced team with 4 starters back and added twins Lamar and Shamar Wright, who's dad, Lorenzo Wright, played in the NBA. Those two should only get better the more they get into the flow of things. Overall SIU is a very balanced team with 6 different guys averaging 7 or more ppg. Take SIU Edwardsville!
|11-18-19||Middle Tennessee +3 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||72-93||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee +3 -110
No way should the Blue Raiders be getting points here against the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has already dropped games at home to Campbell and Northern Kentucky. Middle Tennessee has started out 3-0, which includes a win at Lipscomb.
I'm expecting big improvements out of the Blue Raiders in year two under head coach Nick McDevitt. He really turned UNC Asheville into a power and finished up 40-14 in his last 3 years.
The Chanticleers most recent game was that home defeat to the Norsemen. Coastal Carolina is just 4-12 ATS last 16 off a home loss and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home overall. Blue Raiders have covered 5 of 7 against a team from the Sun Belt and are 9-3 ATS last 12 overall, including a 5-2 ATS mark in their last 7 on the road. Take Middle Tennessee!
|11-17-19||Wake Forest v. Charlotte +4||65-67||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Charlotte +4 -110
I like the 49ers to cover the small number at home against the Demon Deacons. Everyone keeps waiting for Danny Manning to work his magic in Winston-Salem, but it's just not happening. Wake has won just 11-games each of the last two years, both times going a mere 4-14 in ACC play.
They would of had a chance to be decent had freshmen Jaylen Hoard stuck around, but he left early for the NBA. I get Charlotte isn't the best program, but we saw the Demon Deacons already barely beat Columbia at home 65-63.
Wake did win last time out against UNC-Asheville, but are just 5-13 ATS last 18 off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road. Take Charlotte!
|11-17-19||76ers v. Cavs +7||Top||114-95||Loss||-105||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cavs +7 -105
Love the value here with the Cavs as a big home dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and have failed to cover 4 straight. 76ers are not a good road team and are playing their 3rd straight away from home.
Cavs might be one of the least talented teams in the league, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. This team has been routinely undervalued by the books and that's evident by Cleveland's 6-3-2 ATS record.
76ers are 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road against a bad team that's won 25% to 40% of their games. Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 on 2 days of rest. Take Cleveland!
|11-17-19||UCF v. Illinois State -1.5||67-65||Loss||-110||3 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Illinois State -1½ -110
I got no problem laying the short number at home with the RedBirds in Sunday's game against UCF. I just think the Knights are in some trouble this season. UCF had a dream season last year, winning 24-games and coming up just short of upsetting Duke and advancing to the Sweet 16.
The Knights lost every key player from that team and it's going to be a struggle for them to come anywhere close to what they were. They just lost at home by 9 to Miami as a 3-point dog and I look for them to struggle in their first true road game of the season.
Redbirds have thrived in this spot, going 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Illinois State!
|11-17-19||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||13-33||Loss||-120||53 h 37 m||Show|
5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120
Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye.
Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs.
Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going.
Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville!
|11-17-19||Marquette v. Wisconsin -1||61-77||Win||100||2 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Wisconsin -1 -105
The Badgers are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. Just feel like like Marquette is getting a little too much love here off a 10-point home win against Purdue.
Golden Eagles had a chance to be special this year until Sam and Joey Hauser decided to transfer. Now it's just the Markus Howard show and while he's great, it's hard to be a one-man show and win on the road against a team like Wisconsin that really gets after you defensively. You can bet the Badgers are going to really focus on Howard and make the other guys beat them.
Wisconsin comes in off a 83-63 blowout win at home over McNeese State and are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home off a home win by 20 or more points. Marquette on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take Wisconsin!
|11-16-19||Oklahoma -10 v. Baylor||Top||34-31||Loss||-110||53 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -10 -110
There's plenty of people talking about how Baylor deserves to be ranked higher than No. 12 with their perfect record, but I'm with the playoff committee. I just don't think the Bears are anywhere close to as good as their record and I think it could get ugly on Saturday in Waco.
Oklahoma is hands down the most talented team in the Big 12. They had a slip up at Kansas State, but I think more of that was them just not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserve. They won't make that mistake against the Bears.
The biggest thing for more me is I don't think Baylor's defense can contain Jalen Hurts and this high-powered Oklahoma offense. That's a big problem, as I don't think the Bears have the goods offensively to go keep this close if the Sooners put 30+ on the board.
Bears are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma has failed to cover their last two in large part because of turnovers. They posted a -2 turnover margin in both ATS losses to K-State and Iowa State. Sooners are 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have posted back-to-back games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Oklahoma!
|11-16-19||St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -7.5||80-74||Loss||-105||19 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Saturday Night CASH COW on Rutgers -7½ -105
The Scarlet Knights have started out 3-0 and I look for them to have no problem covering the number in Saturday's neutral site showdown with St. Bonaventure. Rutgers is a program on the rise and many fans are calling for their first winning season in over a decade.
The Bonnies are off to a 0-3 start having lost at home to Ohio and Vermont and most recently losing at Siena as a 1-point favorite. Offense has been a big problem for St. Bonaventure. They are averaging just 59.0 ppg and have yet to shoot better than 38% from the field in any game.
Now they must face a Rutgers defense that is only giving up 55.7 ppg, holding teams almost 15 points under their season average. St Bonaventure is 1-9 ATS last 10 games when facing a team that's holding teams under 42% shooting and the Scarlet Knights are 13-3 ATS last 16 away from home against teams who are averaging 64 or fewer points/game. Take Rutgers!
|11-16-19||Bucks -6.5 v. Pacers||102-83||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Bucks/Pacers ATS WINNER on Bucks -6½ -110
I like Milwaukee to cash in a win and cover at Indiana on Saturday. I just feel like we are getting a decent price here with the Bucks coming in off 4 straight non-covers. Especially given that Milwaukee will be playing just their second game in 6 days, while the Pacers are in the second game of a back-to-back set after playing last night at Houston.
Another thing to note with the Pacers is that while they are 7-2 in their last 9 games, a lot of those wins came against bad teams. In fact, Indiana has played the softest schedule of any team in the NBA so far.
Bucks are 30-16 ATS last 46 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a dominant 17-4 ATS last 21 vs a division opponent with an average margin of victory of 13.6 ppg. Take Milwaukee!
|11-16-19||LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5||58-37||Win||100||35 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Public Money ATS DESTROYER on Ole Miss +21½ -105
While I don't think Ole Miss is going to pull off the massive upset against No. LSU, I do think there's a ton of value with the Rebels getting more than three touchdowns at home, especially with this being a prime time night game.
This is Ole Miss's Super Bowl, while LSU is in about as big a letdown spot as they could be in off that upset win over Alabama last week. The Tigers have just not responded well off a big road win, as they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off an upset win as a road dog. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record.
Ole Miss is also a team that's been getting disrespected by the books consistently this year, especially in SEC play. Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their 6 conference games this season. Take Ole Miss!
|11-16-19||Louisiana Tech +10 v. Creighton||Top||72-82||Push||0||17 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Louisiana Tech +10 -105
This is just too many points for Louisiana Tech to be catching on the road against the Blue Jays. The Bulldogs have started out 2-0 with two blowout wins. They won at Texas A&M CC 82-49 as a mere 8-point favorite and followed that up with a 98-52 victory against Wiley College. Note that Texas A&M CC nearly went on the road an upset Vanderbilt, losing by a final score of 71-66.
As for Creighton, they are coming off a 79-69 loss at Michigan, where they let the Wolverines shoot 57% from the field and now face a LA Tech team that has hit 50% from the field in each of their first two games. I just don't see the Blue Jays being able to pull away and winning by double-digit. In fact, I give the Bulldogs a legit shot at winning this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech!
|11-16-19||Minnesota v. Iowa -3||19-23||Win||100||21 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Iowa/Minn Big Ten PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3 -103
One of the more difficult things to do in college football is back bounce from a big win at home on the road against a top tier team. That's the spot we find the Gophers this Saturday, as they make the difficult trip down to Iowa City for a late afternoon kickoff at Kinnick.
Those that bet against Minnesota last week are all over the Gophers as a slim 3-point dog against Iowa, but I feel the smart money is on the home team. Iowa is a few plays away from being 9-0 themselves. The Hawkeyes 3 losses have all come down to the wire, as they lost 10-3 at Michigan, 17-12 at home to Penn State and 24-22 at Wisconsin this past Saturday. All 3 of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 15 of CFP Rankings.
I was actually impressed with how well Iowa played in Madison. Even though they gave up 300 on the ground to the Badgers, they still held Wisconsin to just 24 points. Iowa is giving up just 11.7 ppg and 289 ypg. I really think that defense is going to be the difference on Saturday. Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 when facing a team that averages 37 or more points/game.
You also have to take into account this is by far the toughest road game of the season for Minnesota, who's played 6 of their first 9 at home and their 3 road games have been against Fresno, Purdue and Rutgers. They crushed Rutgers, but only won by 3 at Fresno and by 7 at Purdue. Take Iowa!
|11-16-19||Eastern Michigan +9 v. North Texas||56-51||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - E Michigan/N Texas ATS WINNER on Eastern Michigan +9 -110
The Eagles are worth a look as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Mean Green. Eastern Michigan hasn't played the stiffest of competition over their 3-0 start, but they have dominated all 3 games and will be playing with a ton of confidence in this one.
North Texas is coming off two really tough road games, as they were at VCU last Friday (lost a heartbreaker 59-56) and at Arkansas on Tuesday (lost by 23). Both games the offense really struggled, as they shot just 40% against the Rams and 33% against the Razorbacks.
Mean Green are just 19-35 ATS last 54 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 18-36 last 54 in non-conference home games and 5-16 ATS last 21 at home off a loss by 20 or more. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-16-19||Georgia -3 v. Auburn||21-14||Win||100||31 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF -Georgia/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia -3 +100
I really like Georgia to go into Auburn and easily cover the 3. The Bulldogs had that ugly showing in their lone loss to South Carolina and have been all business since. They rolled Kentucky at home 21-0, beat Florida in Jacksonville 24-17 (wasn't as close as the final score) and just beat Missouri 27-0.
I have to believe there's a new sense of life with this team after being ranked No. 4 in the recent CFP poll. They know now that if they win out they are in and I just don't think Auburn will be as big a challenge as some think. Sure the Tigers have a great defense, but they have allowed 165+ rushing yards in their last two. If they aren't able to slow down Georgia's ground game they are in big trouble.
I just don't see Bo Nix and that Auburn offense being able to do enough here for them to win this game, which is basically what they have to do for us to not cover. Bulldogs are a dominant 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after the first month of the season and have covered 13 of their last 15 road games on Saturday. Auburn is also 0-6 ATS last 3 season off a home win. Take Georgia!
|11-16-19||Austin Peay +9 v. Tulsa||65-72||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Austin Peay/Tulsa ATS WINNER on Austin Peay +9 -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Governors against the Golden Hurricane. Austin Peay comes in off a 22-point loss at Western Kentucky, but that's a really good Hilltoppers team who lost just 1 starter from a 20-win team and is expected to win C-USA this year.
Tulsa has started out 2-1, but there two wins have come by single-digits against the likes of Houston Baptist and Oral Roberts. They also lost by 14 on the road to Texas Arlington. Golden Hurricanes have a history of exceeding expectations under Frank Haith, but I don't think that's going to be the case this year. Take Austin Peay!
|11-16-19||Belmont +1.5 v. Boston College||100-85||Win||100||3 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Belmont/Boston College ATS WINNER on Belmont +1½ -110
The Bruins are worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Eagles. Boston College is getting a lot of love here after starting out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, but I think they are going down on Saturday.
One key matchup here that I think really favors Belmont is big man Nick Muszynski going up against the Eagles Nic Popvic. Muszynski is averaging 17.5 ppg and 3 bpg. He's not only going to get his, but he should be able to contain Popvic, BC's second leading scorer.
Bruins were red-hot from 3 last time out, going 16 of 38 (42%) against Samford. Belmont is 15-4 ATS last 19 after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers. Bruins are also a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog the last 3 seasons. Eagles just 1-8 ATS last 9 at home off a home game. Take Belmont!
|11-16-19||Temple -4.5 v. La Salle||70-65||Win||100||3 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Temple/LaSalle ATS WINNER on Temple -4½ -110
I like the Owls to cash in a win and cover over LaSalle in Saturday's Big Five matchup. Temple has had a whole week to prepare for this one, as they haven't played since last Saturday's 18-point win over Morgan State.
While Temple has had ample time to prepare for this rivalry matchup, the Explorers just played a Big 5 rival in Penn on Wednesday. That didn't go well, as they lost by 16 as a 8.5-point dog.
Not real concerned with home court edge in this one. These two schools are a mere 3-miles apart on Broad Street. Expect plenty of Owls' fans in attendance.
I also think turnovers will be a big factor here. Temple has forced 36 turnovers in their first two games, while LaSalle has coughed up the rock 34 times in their first two games. Take Temple!
|11-16-19||Florida v. Missouri +7||23-6||Loss||-110||46 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7 -110
The Tigers are worth a look as a touchdown dog at home against the Gators. This is the opportune time to buy low on Missouri, whose last 3 games have saw them lose at Vandy 21-14, at Kentucky 29-7 and most recently at Georgia 27-0.
As bad as those results look, I'm confident we are going to get the best the Tigers have to offer at home against the No. 11 Gators. History is also on our side here. Missouri is 42-21 ATS last 63 off a loss by 1 or more, 34-16 in their last 50 at home off a road loss and 21-9 ATS last 30 when they come in off 3 straight losses.
Florida is also a team that I think is a bit overvalued. They have been great against the spread of late, but elite teams (won more than 80% of their games) that have beat the spread by 49 or more in their last 5 games are just 35-73 (32%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take Vanderbilt!
|11-16-19||Wisconsin v. Nebraska +14.5||37-21||Loss||-109||17 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska +14½ -109
Solid value here with the Cornhuskers getting two touchdowns plus the hook at home against the Badgers. To say this season has been a disappointment for Nebraska would be an understatement, but I expect the best they have to offer Saturday against the nationally ranked Badgers.
If there wasn't already enough motivation for the Cornhuskers, they should get it from the comments made by Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun, who had this to say about the rivalry. "I think it was a big rivalry back before they had the trophy, so they created the trophy, and now it hasn't left here. I don't know if it's much of a rivalry anymore."
Not only does that add a little fire for Nebraska, it tells me the Badgers aren't taking this game all that seriously. They were already in a big letdown spot coming off two big games against ranked teams in Ohio State and Iowa.
Wisconsin is just 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road, 4-10 ATS last 14 off a win and 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Nebraska!
|11-15-19||Cal-Irvine +3 v. Boise State||69-61||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Cal-Irvine +3 -110
The betting public can't get enough of the Broncos as a small home favorite against the Anteaters, but I really like Cal-Irvine to go into Boise and get a win, making them an easy play at this price.
Boise went just 13-20 overall and 7-11 (T-7th) in the MWC last year, but because they bring back their top four scorers and add in a couple of Pac-12 transfers, people are expecting a big turnaround. I'm not convinced that will be the case. It certainly didn't look to be in their last game, when they lost by 31 on the road to Oregon as a 10.5-point dog.
UC Irvine comes in averaging 82.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting, which is pretty remarkable when you factor they have shot a miserable 29% from behind the 3-point line. Good chance they get that going against a Broncos defense that is allowing their opponents to shoot 43.2% from deep against them on the season. The defense as a whole just isn't very good for the home team and it will cost them tonight. Take UC-Irvine!
|11-15-19||UC-Davis +5 v. Arkansas State||67-80||Loss||-110||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on UC-Davis +5 -110
The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Red Wolves. I feel like we are getting a good price on UC-Davis in this one due to the fact that they have failed to cover each of their first two lined games. They also couldn't have played any worse than they did in their opener at Loyola when they got blasted 82-48 as a mere 13-point dog.
Arkansas State did manage to cover in their last game at home against VMI as a 7-point favorite, but the Keydets are 0-4, so that's nothing to get excited about. Red Wolves also shot a ridiculous 58% from the field, which is not the norm for this team. They only managed 43 points on 33% shooting the game before against Ole Miss.
Turnovers have been a problem for the Red Wolves. They are averaging 16 turnovers a game and will be facing a UC Davis defense that has forced an impressive 33 turnovers in their last 2 games. That's nothing new for the Aggies, as they have ranked in the top 40 nationally in defensive turnover rate the last two years. I'll take the points for insurance, but fully expect the Aggies to win outright. Take UC Davis!
|11-15-19||Alabama +1 v. Rhode Island||Top||79-93||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Alabama +1 -110
I love the Crimson Tide at basically a pick'em on the road against the Rams. Alabama bounced back in a big way from their heartbreaking 1-point loss to Penn in their opener with a dominating 78-59 win at home over FAU, easily covering as a 12.5-point favorite.
Rhode Island failed to cover as a big favorite in their opener against Long Island and then were embarrassed on the road in a 73-55 loss as a 12-point dog to Maryland. Rams have not been able to get their offense going. They shot just 39% from the field against Long Island and then a mere 30% against the Terps.
Rhode Island has a solid trio of Langevine, Russell and Dowtin. Tide have guys that can give those three fits. Alabama's suffocating man-to-man defense travels well and will be too much for this struggling Rams offense to overcome. Take Alabama!
|11-15-19||Pistons -3 v. Hornets||Top||106-109||Loss||-109||10 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA - Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pistons -3 -109
I think we are getting a great price with Detroit as a slim road favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte is off to a better start than most expected with 4 wins in their first 11 games, which puts them on pace to eclipse their win total of 23.5. I'm not buying into the early success and believe this team is going to struggle to find wins going forward.
We've seen clear signs of this of late, as they have lost 4 straight, which includes a couple of home losses to bad teams in the Pelicans and Grizzlies.
Pistons are just 4-8 to start the year, but did play a good chunk of their early schedule without Blake Griffin. While they enter having lost 3 straight, all 3 were by single-digits and two of those on the road. I expect a big effort here from Detroit on Friday and they are simply the better team and it's just not asking much for them to cover the small number.
Pistons are 22-10 ATS last 32 when playing a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Detroit!
|11-15-19||Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -6||10-31||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Friday Night C-USA NO-BRAINER on Marshall -6 -110
With the recent news that Louisiana Tech starting quarterback J'Mar Smith and top wide out Adrian Hardy are both suspended for this game, this is an easy play on the Thundering Herd at home.
I just don't think the Bulldogs will be able to overcome the loss of Smith, especially on the road against a good Marshall team that is only giving up 24.0 ppg and 371 ypg. Smith has thrown for almost 2,500 yards with a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. He's also second on the team with 226 rushing yards. He's basically got all the reps and it's just asking too much of an inexperienced backup to play well on such short notice.
Marshall has struggled to cash at the betting window of late, but they are 31-15 ATS last 46 when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Thundering Herd also own an impressive 16-5-2 ATS mark in their last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Marshall!
|11-15-19||South Alabama -4 v. Chattanooga||72-90||Loss||-109||8 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama -4 -109
Easy play here on the Jaguars as a small road favorite against the Mocs. We just saw how talented this South Alabama team is in their last game, as they nearly pulled off a big upset at home against Auburn, losing 70-69 as a 7-point dog. Not a huge surprise, given the Jaguars are considered the team to beat in the Sun Belt this year.
Chattanooga on the other hand is picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. The Mocs did just win 74-68 at Troy as a small road dog, but the Trojans are considered by many as the worst team in the Sun Belt.
Jaguars are 11-3 ATS last 14 games vs a team with a winning record, while the Mocs are a mere 2-12 ATS last 14 home games vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game. Take South Alabama!
|11-14-19||VMI v. Arkansas State -6||56-71||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas State -6 -109
The Red Wolves are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Keydets. Arkansas State is showing some value coming off an ugly 71-43 loss at Ole Miss and should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against VMI.
The Keydets have lost each of their first 3 games and are expected to be down this year. Most have VMI picked to finish at or near the bottom of the Southern Conference and a big reason for that is they lost the conference's leading scorer, Bubba Parham, who transferred to Georgia Tech.
Red Wolves are 72-48 (60%) last 120 off a loss by 10 or more, while the Keydets are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 on the road when playing their 3rd game in a week span. Take Arkansas State!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns -2.5||Top||7-21||Win||100||35 h 24 m||Show|
5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119
The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line.
Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams.
Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland!
|11-14-19||Clippers -4 v. Pelicans||127-132||Loss||-109||9 h 20 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Clippers -4 -109
The Clippers are worth a look here at New Orleans on Thursday. Good chance Los Angeles decided to rest Kawhi in the second game of a back-to-back, but the good news is Paul George is ready to make his season debut.
I think that will be more than enough for the Clippers to win here by 5 or more against a Pelicans team that just isn't very good and is dealing with a ton of injuries. New Orleans is not only a mere 2-8 SU, they are just 3-7 ATS. They are still waiting on the return on Zion from injury. Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball are both out, while Jahlil Okafor and Brandon Ingram are both listed as questionable.
Pelicans are 4-12 ATS last 16 at home and a mere 1-10 ATS last 11 at home against a team that has won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Los Angeles!
|11-14-19||Heat v. Cavs +4.5||108-97||Loss||-105||8 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA - Underdog VEGAS INSIDER on Cavs +4½ -105
I think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland at home against the Heat. This might seem like a small number for Miami to be laying against a sub-par Cavs team, but the Heat will be playing far from full strength. Derrick Jones Jr and Justise Winslow are both out for this game, while Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are both questionable.
Cleveland might not be the most talented team, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. Cavs have covered 3 straight are a very profitable 6-2-2 ATS on the season. Home team has also covered 4 of the last 5 in the series. Take Cleveland!
|11-13-19||Eastern Washington v. St. Louis -7.5||Top||60-82||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -7½ -109
The Billikens should have no problem putting away the Eagles by double-digits Wednesday night. St Louis lost a lot from last year's squad that won 23 games and I think it has them undervalued to start out the season. The Billikens did get back do it all guard Jordan Goodwin and forward Hasahn French.
St Louis opened with a 22-point win as a mere 7-point favorite against Florida Gulf Coast and followed that up with a 11-point win as a 9.5-point favorite against Valpo. Billikens are 30-13 ATS at home when they come in off 2 straight covers.
Eastern Washington is just 2-10 ATS last 12 non-conference games and just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take St Louis!
|11-13-19||Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hornets||119-117||Win||100||9 h 0 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Grizzlies +2½ -110
I like Memphis to cash in a win here as a small road dog against the Bobcats. Grizzlies are coming off a 113-109 win at San Antonio as a 10.5-point dog and I think that win will go a long way in giving this team the confidence it was lacking after a slow start.
Charlotte enters having lost 3 straight and are definitely a team worth fading with a small line at home. Hornets are a mere 9-22 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a line of +3 to -3. Road team has also covered 7 of the last 10 in the series. Take Memphis!
|11-13-19||Ohio +6 v. Iona||81-72||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Ohio +6 -110
Iona might be the favorite to win the MAAC, but I just think the Gaels are getting too much respect at home against an Ohio team that has turned some heads in their first two games. The Bobcats opened the season with a 12-point win at St. Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog. They followed that up with a 38-point win over Heidelberg.
Iona also played a team from the A-10 to open the season and they lost by 6 at LaSalle as a favorite. Note that LaSalle was picked to finish worse than the Bonnies in A-10 play. The Gaels shot just 30% from the field in that loss to the Explorers.
Iona is just 1-10 ATS last 10 non-conference games and are 3-11 ATS last 14 when coming off a loss. Take Ohio!
|11-12-19||Blazers v. Kings +2.5||99-107||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night PLAY OF THE WEEK on Kings +2½ -110
Most are going to just blindly take Portland here with the news that the Kings have lost starting point guard De'Aaron Fox for weeks to a ankle injury suffered in Monday's practice. It might be tough for Sacramento to overcome this in the long-run, but I expect this team to really come out strong here in the first game without him.
Keep in mind the Kings have a legit backup to run the points in Corey Joseph and the team as a whole is playing with a ton of momentum having won 3 of their last 4. Blazers are just 4-6 on the year and their only win in their last 5 games is at home against the Hawks.
Another key factor here is rest. Portland will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, while the Kings are playing on 3 full days of rest. Take Sacramento!
|11-12-19||Washington State +4 v. Santa Clara||62-70||Loss||-110||13 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington State +4 -110
The books just don't want to give this Cougars team any love. Washington State was a mere 3-point favorite in their opener against Seattle and they went on to win that game 85-54. Now they are getting points against San Clara? No way I'm passing up on the Cougars at this price.
Washington State will have the best player on the floor in C.J. Elleby, who flirted with leaving for the NBA. Elleby was sensational in the opener with 27 points and 7 rebounds. Cougars have covered 12 of their last 17 non-conference games and I'm confident they cash a winning ticket tonight. Take Washington State!
|11-12-19||Oral Roberts +7.5 v. Tulsa||67-74||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oral Roberts +7½ -110
Really like the value with the Golden Eagles. This just isn't an in-state matchup, both schools are located in Tulsa, OKlahoma. Oral Roberts might be considered the lesser of the two in this fight, but I think the Eagles have the goods to win this game outright.
Oral Roberts has two studs in Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor, two more returning starters, and two grad transfers expected to play big roles. This team is all-in on winning the Summit and getting to the NCAA Tournament. Tulsa loses 3 key pieces from last year's team that went 18-14 and that team only beat the Golden Eagles by 10 (trailed by 5 at the half). Take Oral Roberts!
|11-12-19||Eastern Michigan v. Akron +17.5||42-14||Loss||-115||8 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Weekday MAC Attack CASH COW on Akron +17½ -115
I'm well aware of how bad the Zips have been both SU and ATS this season, but I think we are getting too good a price to pass up with the home dog Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan is not the kind of team that should be laying 3 scores on the road. The Eagles have lost 4 of 5 and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
Road favorites who are allowing 31+ points/game and have allowed 31 or more in each of their last two are just 34-70 (32.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Eastern Michigan is also just 2-9 ATS under head coach Chris Creighton when his Eagles are playing a horrible team that's won less than 25% of their games. Take Akron!
|11-12-19||Pacific +5.5 v. Hawaii||Top||67-72||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific +5½ -109
Easy play here for me with the Tigers as a decently priced road dog against the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii has been overvalued in each of their first two games, as they failed to cover as a 17.5-point favorite in a 65-52 win over Florida A&M and as a 1.5-point favorite in a 81-75 loss to South Dakota.
Just so happens that Pacific has faced both of those teams and had pretty similar results. Tigers lost by 10-points at home to South Dakota and crushed Florida A&M 76-54. I not only think Pacific will cover, but I give them a great shot at winning outright.
Warriors are a mere 5-16 ATS last 21 games vs a team from the West Coast Conference and have failed to cover 4 straight at home. Take Pacific!
|11-11-19||Jazz v. Warriors +8.5||122-108||Loss||-109||12 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Warriors +8½ -109
It's crazy how things have turned with Golden State. The Warriors had been the biggest public bet in the league for years, but no one wants anything to do with this year's Golden State team. Sure, it's not the same team. Not even close. But I do feel it has the Warriors a bit undervalued here at home against the Jazz.
Utah is a team everyone was hyping up leading into the season and while they are off to a decent 6-3 start, they are just 3-6 ATS. Also, most of that success has come at home, as they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road.
Also a big system in play backing a play on the Warriors, as underdogs with a losing record are 100-57 (64%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when coming off 3 or more straight road losses. Take Golden State!
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers -6||27-24||Loss||-109||108 h 19 m||Show|
4* NFL - Seahawks/49ers MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on 49ers -6 -109
The public is all over Seattle getting close to a touchdown on the road, but I really like the 49er to lay it on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is one of the most complete teams in the league and there's not many teams they want to beat more than Seattle, as these two have formed quite the rivalry over the last decade.
Most are just assuming Russell Wilson will do enough here to keep Seattle within the number, but it's been near impossible to throw the ball with any kind of success against this 49ers defense. In San Francisco's last 6 games they are giving up a mere 108 passing/yards game.
I could see Wilson throwing for 200 yards here, but I just don't think they will be able to score enough here. People like to overlook how poorly this Seahawks defense is playing. Seattle has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5 games and the only exception game against Atlanta without Matt Ryan. 49ers are averaging 35.3 ppg at home this season. Take San Francisco!
|11-11-19||Rockets -5.5 v. Pelicans||122-116||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rockets -5½ -109
Houston is definitely worth a look here laying what I feel is a short number against a struggling Pelicans team. Rockets started out the season failing to cover each of their first 6 games, but have won and covered each of their last 3. The most recent a 117-94 blowout win at Chicago as a similarly priced 6.5-point favorite.
New Orleans comes in off a win and cover in a 115-10 win at Charlotte, but are just 2-7 overall. In each of their last 4 losses have come by double-digits. After really struggling defensively early on, Houston has been much better on that side of the ball of late. I just don't see the Pelicans being able to keep pace. Rockets are averaging 120.1 ppg and New Orleans are giving up 122.4 ppg. Take Houston!
|11-11-19||Samford +9 v. Belmont||63-95||Loss||-110||10 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Samford +9 -110
I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog against the Bruins. Belmont has some nice pieces back from last year's team that received an at-large big, but they lost two big time playmakers in Dylan Windler (21.3 ppg, 10.8 rpg) and Kevin McClain (16.8 ppg).
Bruins lost their opener 72-79 at Illinois State as a 5.5-point favorite. I just feel Belmont is getting a little too much love from the books to start the year and this Samford team is not only capable of covering, but winning this game outright. Bulldogs are an impressive 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and a perfect 7-0 the last 2 seasons as a road underdog. Take Samford!
|11-10-19||Bucks v. Thunder +8||121-119||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Thunder +8 -105
Love the value here with Oklahoma City as a big home dog against the Bucks. I just feel like this is way too many points for Milwaukee to be laying in this spot. Bucks are finishing up a 4-game road trip that has seen them go from Minnesota, to LA, to Utah and now OKC in the last 7 days.
You can see the effects of this trip getting to Milwaukee by their poor shooting performances against both the Clippers (42.9%) and Jazz (35.8%). Note they also used up a ton of energy ralling from a 22-point halftime deficit against Utah, only to lose on a last second shot.
Thunder have won 3 of 4 and have a 5-1 record the last 6 times they have hosted the Bucks. Thunder have also covered 5 of their last 6 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take Oklahoma City!
|11-10-19||Rams v. Steelers +3.5||12-17||Win||100||80 h 29 m||Show|
3* NFL - Situational DOG OF THE DAY on Steelers +3½ -105
I like the value here with the Steelers as a home dog. I just think we are seeing the Rams way overvalued here coming off their bye having won and covered each of their last two. I just don't get the hype over LA's last two wins, as they were against two awful teams in the Falcons and Bengals.
They aren't going to find it so easy moving the ball against this Steelers defense, which has really carried this team back into contention. They have been really good against the pass and I believe if you can make it difficult on Jared Goff and not let him get into a rhythm, this offense struggles to score, especially with how they are running the ball. Rams are only averaging 97 yards/game on the ground and have eclipsed the 100 yard mark just once in their last 6 games.
Steelers are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 off a SU win and 8-2 ATS last 10 off a cover. Rams are also just 13-29 ATS last 42 vs teams who have a +1 per game turnover margin or better. Steelers have forced 3 or more turnovers in 4 straight games and at least two in 7 straight. Take Pittsburgh!
|11-10-19||Arkansas-Little Rock +5.5 v. Illinois State||70-75||Win||100||6 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas-Little Rock +5½ -109
The Trojans are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Redbirds. Little Rock opened up the season as a 5.5-point dog at home against Belmont and went on to win the game outright 79-72.
I like their chances of making it two straight upsets with a win against Illinois State, who is working in 8 new players to a team that won just 17-games last year. Redbirds have failed to cover in 5 straight against a team from the Sun Belt, while the Trojans are a solid 5-2 ATS last 7 vs the Missouri Valley. Take Little Rock!
|11-10-19||Ravens -10 v. Bengals||49-13||Win||100||77 h 4 m||Show|
3* NFL - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Ravens -10 +100
I got no problem here laying double-digits on the road with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore has won 4 straight and are coming off a 17-point win at home against the Patriots. The Bengals haven't won a game all season and it's got so bad in Cincinnati they are benching Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley.
I just don't think it's going to get any better offensively with Finley under center. Andy Dalton wasn't great in the Bengals first 8 games, but he's not the reason they have one of the worst offenses in the league. Bengals have eclipsed 17 points just once in their last 7 games. With the way defenses are struggling to contain Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense, I just don't see Cincinnati keeping this close.
Ravens are 12-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season in their last 13 road games vs awful defensive teams that are giving up 375+ yards/game. On the flip side of this, Bengals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs good offensive teams that are averaging 350+ yards/game. Take Baltimore!
|11-10-19||Giants -3 v. Jets||27-34||Loss||-100||35 h 9 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Giants -3 +100
You won't see me laying points on the road with a 2-7 team often, but this isn't really a road game for the Giants, as they share MetLife Stadium with the Jets. I just think the Jets are a dumpster fire right now and it's not going to get any better.
Sam Darnold and this Jets offense has been atrocious in their last 3 games. Darnold is playing without absolute no confidence right now. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 8 interceptions. It's not just all on Darnold. New York has only eclipsed 20 points once this season, scoring 16 or fewer in all but 2 games. That's why I'm not overly concerned with how the Giants defense has struggled.
Also, when it's going bad for the Jets, it's a good idea to keep fading them. They are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 4 of their last 5. Jets are also 5-15 ATS last 20 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 375 or more yards/game, while Giants are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs teams allowing 350 or more yards/game. Take the Giants!
|11-10-19||Florida State +6 v. Florida||Top||63-51||Win||100||4 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Florida State +6 -105
I really like the value we are getting with the Seminoles as a dog. I think we are getting a great price here on FSU coming off an upset loss on the road at Pitt in their opener. Winning on the road right out of the gate is never easy, especially against a conference opponent.
I also wasn't overly impressed with Florida in their 15 point win as a 22-point favorite at home against North Florida. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Seminoles won this game outright.
Gators have been an awful bet at home, as they are 3-13 ATS last 16 at the Exactech Arena, including a 0-6 ATS mark in their last 6 at home with a total of 130 to 134.5. Take Florida State!