|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-01-20||Mavs -6.5 v. Wolves||111-91||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs -6½ -110
I got no problem laying the points with Dallas on the road against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are still without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns and are trying to piece together all the new pieces they acquired at the trade deadline.
Winning is just not a priority for this team and that's pretty evident by the lack of defense they are playing. Minnesota has allowed 4 straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the field and have not held an opponent under 46% from the field in a month.
Dallas is not the team you want to be facing without a defense, especially with the Mavs coming off a loss at Miami last time out. Dallas is scoring 117.4 ppg on the road this season and are averaging 119 ppg over their last 5. Mavs are also 11-3-1 ATS this season when listed as a road favorite. Take Dallas!
|03-01-20||South Florida v. Temple -3||Top||64-58||Loss||-109||2 h 26 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -3 -109
I really like the value here with Tempe laying such a short number at home against the Bulls. The Owls are going to be extremely motivated to take their home floor after a couple of really close calls on the road, losing by 4 last Sunday at ECU and then by 3 at Wichita State on Thursday.
Prior to those two losses, Temple had won 3 straight league games, including a 93-89 win over UConn in their last home game. The fact that the Owls were a 3-point favorite at home to UConn, says a lot about the value here, laying the same number against a USF team that has lost 4 of 5.
Bulls are off a win, but that was at home against ECU and it was a game that went to OT. Could be real tough for USF to bounce back on the road, especially with two monster home games against Cincinnati and SMU looming to close out the regular-season portion of their schedule.
Owls are 50-29 (63%) ATS in their last 79 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Temple!
|02-29-20||Rockets +2 v. Celtics||111-110||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NBA - Prime Time ATS KNOCKOUT on Rockets +2 -105
The books are begging you to take the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at home and I'm showing close to 70% of the public taking the bait. That is reason enough on its own to be looking at Houston as a small dog.
I know the Celtics are a talented team, but taking on the likes of James Harden and Russell Westbrook is a tall task without starting point guard Kemba Walker, even at home. You also have to factor in how well Houston is playing. Rockets have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Houston is a very streaky team and when they are hot they tend to stay hot for long stretches.
Rockets are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-3 ATS last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take Houston!
|02-29-20||Delaware -3.5 v. NC-Wilmington||82-65||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Delaware -3½ -109
I got no problem here laying a small number with the Blue Hens at UNC Wilmington. Delaware has lost 3 of their last 4, which is playing into the number, but those 3 losses have come against 3 of the top 4 teams in the league.
All that does is increase the likelihood that the Blue Hens are going to show up here with a big effort and that's really all we need. If Delaware comes to play, they should have no problem winning this game by more than the number. Blue Hens beat the Seahawks by 14 at home and the final score doesn't do justice. Delaware had a 27 point lead at one point in the 2nd half.
Blue Hens are 38-19 ATS last 57 road games after losing 3 of their last 4 and are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings of this series. Take Delaware!
|02-29-20||Morehead State +5 v. Eastern Kentucky||76-80||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Morehead State +5 -110
I really like the value here with the Eagles catching points on the road against Eastern Kentucky. This might seem like a favorable price to back the Colonels at home given they are 11-6 in the Ohio Valley and Morehead is just 7-10.
Thing is there's really no motivation here for EKU, who is locked into the No. 4 seed for the OVC Tournament. The Colonels also come into this game in bad form. They have lost their last two and 4 of 6 overall.
Morehead State should be motivated to get a win here to move up in the standings. The Eagles also know they can compete with EKU, as the only lost by 7 at home to the Colonels.
Both teams played on Thursday and that's worth noting as Eastern Kentucky is a dreadful 3-11 ATS at home when playing with one or less days of rest. Colonels are also 1-7 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS last 6 off 2 straight losses by 10 or more. Take Morehead State!
|02-29-20||Northern Iowa v. Drake +4.5||Top||70-43||Loss||-110||19 h 35 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE YEAR on Drake +4½ -110
I love the value here with Drake as a home dog against in-state rival UNI. Given the Panthers are 13-4 and leading the MVC, while the Bulldogs are just 8-9, you might think this is a good price to back UNI. Not me. Drake may have a losing record in league play, but that's only because they can't win on the road.
The Bulldogs are 14-1 on their home floor this season and this is one they have had their eyes on. The Knapp Center will be close to a sellout and I fully expect Drake to win this outright. They have already knocked off other top contenders in the MVC at home in Loyola, Bradley and Indiana State.
They did lose the first meeting to UNI by 10 points, 73-83, but that was as misleading a final as you will see. Drake led most of that game and it was tied 68-68 with just over minutes to play before the Panthers closed on a 15-5 run.
UNI is a mere 3-12 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 season, while the Bulldogs are 37-16-2 ATS last 55 at home, 20-8 ATS last 28 off a loss and 18-5 ATS last 23 as a home dog. Take Drake!
|02-29-20||NC-Greensboro -2.5 v. Chattanooga||72-74||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC-Greensboro -2½ -110
The Spartans are definitely worth a look here as a slim road favorite against Chattanooga. UNC Greensboro had their 6-game home winning streak snapped in a ugly loss at home to Furman on Wednesday. With this the regular-season finale, I look for the Spartans to close things out before the Southern Conference Tournament with a big time performance.
The Mocs come in off a home win, but only twice all season have they been able to put together back-to-back wins in conference play. Hard to see them doing against Greensboro. The Spartans whooped up on Chattanooga 72-52 in the first meeting and have won 4 straight in the series by double-digits.
Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss and 10-4-1 ATS last 15 off a game where they failed to cover. Mocs are 2-6 ATS last 8 as a home dog and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Greensboro!
|02-29-20||Florida State v. Clemson +3.5||69-70||Win||100||5 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Clemson +3½ -105
I really like the Tigers as a home dog against the Seminoles in Saturday's action out of the ACC. FSU comes in sitting on top the ACC at 14-3 having just earned that spot with a 82-67 win at home over Louisville on Monday.
I just see the Seminoles having a hard time not having some kind of letdown here on the road against rival Clemson. The Tigers did lost at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but had won 3 straight prior and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 19-point loss at FSU earlier this season.
Clemson has covered 17 of their last 24 when facing a team that has outscored opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Tigers are also 11-5 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 as a home dog. Home team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 in the series. Take Clemson!
|02-29-20||Pittsburgh v. NC State -8||73-77||Loss||-109||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on NC State -8 -109
I got no problem laying a big number here with NC State at home, as I see the Wolfpack having no problem beating Pitt by double-digits on Saturday. This is a must-win for NC State, who is firmly on the bubble, even with that recent win over Duke. Wolfpack followed up that upset of the Blue Devils with a 61-67 loss at home to FSU and a 79-85 loss at UNC.
With a road game at Duke on deck, one you know the Blue Devils are going to be ready for, this is one they have to have. Lucky for NC State they are catching Pitt at the right time. The Panthers ran out of gas in February and enter having lost 5 straight. Even more important is they have failed to cover in all 5, which really tells you have bad a shape they are in.
During the 5-game losing streak the Panthers are scoring just 56.2 ppg, well below their conference scoring average of 62.7. NC State only gives up 66.1 ppg at home. Not only will it be tough for Pitt to score, but they don't figure to be able to slow down the Wolfpack.
The Panthers rely heavily on turnovers defensively, as teams score at a high rate when they protect the ball. Wolfpack have a very experienced backcourt and one of the best at not turning it over. Take NC State!
|02-28-20||Kings +4 v. Grizzlies||Top||104-101||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +4 -109
I love the value here with Sacramento. The Kings have covered 4 straight out of the All-Star break and clearly are playing with a different sense of urgency than we had seen. I not only like them to cover, but I think they win here outright.
Memphis is in a bad spot right now. Just when everyone seemed to catch on with how good rookie Ja Morant was, the Grizzlies suffered two massive injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those two are far from big names, but without them Memphis has looked like a bottom feeder. Grizzlies have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS since the break and each of the last 3 came by double-digits.
I also think there's some value here due to Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox showing up as questionable on the injury report. As well as Sacramento playing on no rest after a game last night in OKC. I expect Fox to play. It felt like last night's injury was more made up than anything. Kings are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Take Sacramento!
|02-27-20||Jacksonville State +3 v. Tennessee State||Top||55-65||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville State +3 -110
I absolutely love the Gamecocks in this one. I look for Jacksonville State to go into the Gentry Center and lay it on Tennessee State. This is a prime spot to fade the Tigers. Tennessee State is struggling. They have lost two straight and four of five overall.
They also are dealing with a serious injury. Big man Jy'lan Washington had to miss their last game against Morehead State and he's a massive loss for this team. The offense is drastically worse without him and the defense also regresses when he's not on the floor. His status is up in the air and even if he plays he's not likely going to be at 100%.
Jacksonville State comes in off a 72-58 win and cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tenn-Martin. Gamecocks are 24-7 ATS last 31 road games when coming off a home win by 10 or more. Take Jacksonville State!
|02-27-20||Knicks +6.5 v. 76ers||106-115||Loss||-110||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Knicks +6½ -110
I really like the value here with New York as a decently priced road dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia has a great record at home, but things couldn't be going much worse at the moment. Already without Ben Simmons, the 76ers lost Joel Embiid in last night's 14-point loss at Cleveland.
He's almost a guarantee not to play tonight. Not having their two best players and playing on no rest, really negates any home court advantage Philadelphia may have had. I know the Knicks are bad, but if the 76ers aren't careful they could lose this game outright.
Knicks are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New York!
|02-26-20||Clippers -5.5 v. Suns||102-92||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Clippers -5½ -110
I got no problem laying a short number on the road with the Clippers at Phoenix. LA snapped a 3-game skid with a 124-97 thrashing of the Grizzlies at home on Monday. Now it's time for them to make easy work of the Suns.
Phoenix has won their last two, including a big upset win at Utah on Monday as a 8.5-point dog, but are on just 1 day of rest after playing 3 road games in a 4 day stretch. Suns are also one of the few teams who have fewer wins at home than on the road. Phoenix is 11-18 at home compared to 13-16 on the road. Suns don't just lose straight up, they are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home.
Clippers are 27-13 ATS last 40 as road favorite and have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles!
|02-26-20||Virginia v. Virginia Tech +3.5||Top||56-53||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +3½ -109
I love the value here with the Hokies as a home dog against in-state rival Virginia. These two did play at Virginia back in early January, which the Cavaliers won convincingly 65-39. You just can't overreact to that result. Last year Virginia won by 22 at home and then barely snuck out a 6-point win on the road.
The Cavaliers have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, but they aren't dominating the opposition. Out of those 7 wins, 6 have come by 7-points or less with 4 decided by 3 or fewer points.
This is also not an ideal spot for Virginia. Hard for them to take the Hokies seriously given how lopsided the last meeting was, especially with a massive game against Duke on deck this Saturday.
Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Home team is also a dominant 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-25-20||TCU +3.5 v. Iowa State||Top||59-65||Loss||-110||18 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on TCU +3½ -110
I love the value here with TCU as a small road dog against the Cyclones. Iowa State followed up a 20-point loss at Kansas last Monday with a 30-point loss at home to Texas Tech. Cyclones are now 1-3 SU and ATS since losing their best player and potential NBA lottery pick Tyrese Haliburton.
In the 3 games they haven't covered they have failed to do so by an average of 16.0 ppg. There's definitely reason to believe it could get ugly for ISU, even at home. Haliburton had a triple double (22 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) in a loss at TCU earlier this season.
TCU may only have a couple more wins in Big 12 play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, most recently knocking off a ranked West Virginia team at home in OT. Horned Frogs will be coming into this one with a lot of confidence.
Cyclones are 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a winning record. Take TCU!
|02-25-20||Akron v. Bowling Green +1.5||60-78||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Bowling Green +1½ -109
The Falcons are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Zips. No way should Bowling Green by getting points at home in this one. Akron is simply overvalued having won 5 straight. The Falcons are 12-1 on their home floor and come in playing well with 11 wins in their last 13 games.
It just so happens one of those was a double-digit loss at Akron. Revenge will also be a key factor here in favor of Bowling Green. Last time out the Falcons didn't play their best, but still found a way to beat a good Ohio team 62-61. That win is another positive. Falcons are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a home conference win. Take Bowling Green!
|02-24-20||Knicks +14 v. Rockets||112-123||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Knicks +14 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a massive road dog against Houston. The books have no choice here but to inflate the number on New York with how well the Rockets have looked out of the break, beating the Warriors by 30 on the road and then going to Utah and beating the Jazz by 10.
As good as Houston is playing, this is a big flat spot playing on just 1-day of rest after a pretty big game at Utah. Knicks are definitely not a team to get excited to play. Rockets have to feel like they can just go through the motions and win this game.
Knicks have been all over the place. They won 4 in a row only to lose their next 3. I think they show up in this one, as they are playing only their 2nd game back from the break and are on a full two days of rest.
Knicks are 8-1 ATS this season when playing a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and Houston is just 25-43 (37%) ATS last 68 times they have been a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Take New York!
|02-24-20||West Virginia -5 v. Texas||Top||57-67||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -5 -109
I love the value here with West Virginia laying a small number on the road against Texas. The Big 12 has 2 elite teams in Baylor and Kansas, two top tier squads in West Virginia and Texas Tech and then a bunch of mediocre to bad teams. I think the books have struggled to price teams like the Mountaineers high enough in road games.
It's going to take a near perfect game for Texas to win this contest. They haven't beat one of the top 4 teams yet. They are 6-8 in league play with their wins coming against Kansas State, Oklahoma St, TCU and ISU. The Horned Frogs, who are 6-8, are the only one of those 4 with a Big 12 mark better than 4-10.
Texas has lost at home to baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma in Big 12 play. I know they have won two straight, but I don't think playing at home will be enough. West Virginia is just too good. Longhorns are 5-15 ATS last 20 home games off a win and 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been off two or more wins. Take West Virginia!
|02-23-20||Pacers +6 v. Raptors||81-127||Loss||-115||8 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers +6 -115
I like the value here with the Pacers catching a decent number on the road against the Raptors. Indiana went into the All-Star break with a 118-111 win at home against the Bucks and then came back with a 106-98 win and cover at New York. I look for the Pacers to stay hot in a game you know they had circled.
These two teams played twice in a 3-day stretch from Feb. 5-7. Toronto won both games. Indiana had their chances in both. They led most of the way in a gut-wrenching 118-119 loss at Toronto on Feb. 5 and two days later lost another close game at home 106-115. Needless to say the Pacers will have revenge on their mind in this one.
Oladipo might not go for Indiana, as he's listed as doubtful. That's a big loss on paper, but he's not played like the All-Star we remember in his limited time back from injury. Pacers were playing better without him. If anything his injury has added value here. Take Indiana!
|02-23-20||DC Defenders -8 v. Los Angeles Wildcats||9-39||Loss||-110||9 h 9 m||Show|
3* XFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on DC Defenders -8 -110
I got no problem laying the points here with the Defenders on the road against the Wildcats. DC has been impressive to say the least to start out the new XFL season. The Defenders opened things up with a 31-19 win at home over the Dragons and then rolled the Guardians 27-0.
Hard to see Los Angeles being the team that knocks them off or even make a game of it. Wildcats lost by 20 in Week 1 at Houston and then fell at home to the Renegades by 7. Both games LA gave up 25 or more points and with the way DC's offense is looking they are giving up 25+ for a 3rd straight game. I just don't see the Wildcats losing by fewer than 10 in this one. Take DC!
|02-23-20||Canisius +3.5 v. Manhattan||57-56||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Canisius +3½ -108
I really like this price with the Canisius as a small road dog against the Jaspers. No one is going to want to back the Golden Griffins right now, as they have lost 4 straight and 7 of 4 overall. Thing is, it's not going much better for Manhattan, who has lost 3 straight and failed to cover 7 of their last 10 overall.
This has been the money spot for the Griffins, who are 9-1 ATS last 10 times they have been on the road with a total in the 130's. Canisius is also 12-3-2 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Road team has gone 20-5-1 ATS last 26 games in this series with the underdog cashing in 4 of the last 5. Take Canisius!
|02-23-20||Temple -2.5 v. East Carolina||Top||63-67||Loss||-109||3 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK on Temple -2½ -109
The Owls are definitely worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Pirates. Temple has been playing much better here of late. The Owls have won 4 of 6 and are fresh off a double-OT win at home against UConn.
I just think we are getting some value with Temple because of their losing mark of 6-7 in the AAC. It's really not asking much for the Owls to win here by a few points. ECU has lost 3 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They just played a brutal 3 game stretch in 8 days against Tulsa, Cincinnati and Memphis.
These two already played once this season and the Owls won by 12 at home. Temple has covered 5 straight games vs a losing straight up record. The favorites has also covered 7 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Temple!
|02-22-20||Northern Colorado v. Idaho State +9.5||85-72||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Idaho State +9½ -110
I really like the value here with the Bengals as a near double-digit home dog against Northern Colorado. The Bears come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They are also sitting T-2nd in the Big Sky at 11-4, while Idaho State is tied for last in the league with a mark of just 3-12.
Key here is the Bengals really matchup well with Northern Colorado. Bears have struggled against teams who are strong offensive rebounding teams. Idaho State is No. 3 in that department in the Big Sky. Bengals also defend the 3-ball at a high rate and that's a big part of the Northern Colorado offensive attack. Idaho State also struggles with turnovers and Bears are 296th in forcing mistakes.
Also a bit of a letdown spot for Northern Colorado, who is a mere 9-22 ATS last 31 after playing 4 straight games as a favorite. Take Idaho State!
|02-22-20||Virginia Tech +17 v. Duke||Top||64-88||Loss||-110||20 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +17 -110
I love the value here with Virginia Tech catching a massive number on the road against the Blue Devils. Hokies are coming off a 3OT game against Miami on Wednesday, but they will be able to recover enough in 3 days to give a max effort here against Duke.
I'm sure most will be counting on the Blue Devils to bounce back with a big game after not leading for a single second in a 22-point loss at NC State. While I have little doubt that Duke will win this game outright, I don't see them pulling away.
One thing that the Blue Devils love to do is get out and run off of turnovers. Those chances will be extremely limited in this one. Virginia Tech is 5th best in the country in offensive turnover rate. Duke is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been listed as a favorite. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-22-20||Georgia -2.5 v. Vanderbilt||80-78||Loss||-109||17 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia -2½ -109
Easy play here on the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Commodores. Georgia snapped their recent skid in style, knocking off Auburn 65-55 Wednesday. I look for the Bulldogs to carry that momentum into this one against a struggling Vanderbilt team.
Commodores suffered their 4th straight loss and fell to 1-12 in SEC play with a heartbreaking 61-65 loss at Tennessee. Vanderbilt just can't score at a high enough rate to be taken seriously. They have shot 40% or worse from the field in 4 straight and 11 of 12 games overall. It doesn't matter if you are home or away. You aren't going to win often if you can't shoot at least 40% from the field.
Commodores are a mere 1-8 ATS at home off a conference road loss, 3-12 ATS last 15 conference home games overall and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog of 6 points or less. Take Georgia!
|02-22-20||SMU +1.5 v. Tulsa||57-79||Loss||-108||14 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on SMU +1½ -108
The Mustangs are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Golden Hurricane. This is a prime bounce back spot for SMU, coming off an ugly loss at Tulane, who even with the win is still dead last in the AAC at 3-11.
Note it wasn't a huge surprise to see them come out flat in that game, as they were only a few days removed from a dramatic 73-72 overtime win at home against Houston. The same Cougars team that just annihilated Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday.
I just don't see the Golden Hurricane being able to keep pace with this juggernaut of an offense that SMU sends out. Especially when the Mustangs figure to clean up on the offensive glass when they do miss. Mustangs are 20th in offensive rebounding. Tulsa is 210 in defensive rebounding.
Mustangs are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a dog, while Golden Hurricane are 7-15 ATS last 22 as a home favorite. Road team has also gone a staggering 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take SMU!
|02-21-20||Wisc-Milwaukee v. Oakland -3.5||Top||68-75||Win||100||20 h 36 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Horizon League PLAY OF THE MONTH on Oakland -3½ -109
I really like the value here with the Grizzlies laying a short number at home against Milwaukee. Oakland comes into this game ride a wave of momentum off back-to-back wins. The first time since early November that they strung two together two wins in a row.
There strong play really goes back to late January, which was about the same time that transfer Rashad Williams started to get comfortable with his new team. Williams didn't make his debut until Jan. 16. After averaging just 12 ppg in his first 3 games, Williams has exploded for 25.3 ppg in his last 6. He's only played 9 games and made 39 shots from behind the 3-point line. That's second most on the team, just 6 behind the leader.
I just don't think people realize how different a team Oakland is. They just look at their overall numbers and see a mediocre team that is 7-9 in a small conference like the Horizon. I just think with how they are playing and Milwaukee off a crushing 4-point loss at home to rival Green Bay, this price is way to low on the Grizzlies. Take Oakland!
|02-19-20||Michigan v. Rutgers -1||60-52||Loss||-115||14 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rutgers -1 -115
Rutgers is definitely worth a look at basically a pick'em on their home floor. How do you know back the Scarlet Knights at this price when they are 17-0 at home this season. Rutgers has lost 3 of their last 5 and needed OT to win at home over Northwestern, but are fresh off a big time 72-57 home win over Illinois.
Those that follow the Big Ten know that the Scarlet Knights are the real deal, but I don't think that's a perception shared across the country. Michigan on the other hand is a name brand and are making headlines with their recent play. Wolverines come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
Michigan is better with Livers back in the mix, but I'm not sold on them being good enough to win on the road against a team like Rutgers. The Wolverines only true road wins all season have come against bottom feeders Nebraska and Northwestern. You take away those 3 wins in 3 days at Atlantis and they are just 2-5 away from home.
Rutgers also playing with revenge here from a close 6-point loss to Michigan in the first meeting. Scarlet Knights should feed off an electric home crowd. Take Rutgers!
|02-18-20||Arkansas v. Florida -6||Top||59-73||Win||100||22 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida -6 -110
I got no problem laying the points with Florida at home against the Razorbacks. The Gators are rolling right now. They have won 4 of their last 5 and are off two dominating performances in a 78-61 road win at Texas A&M and 84-66 win at home over Vanderbilt. Florida is very quietly sitting at 8-4 in the SEC (only 2 games out of 1st).
While the Gators are surging, Arkansas is on a free fall with 4 straight losses. You really have to wonder about the psyche of this Razorbacks team, as two of the 4 losses came in OT and the other was a 1-point loss at home to Mississippi State.
I just think it's going to be hard to right the ship on the road for Arkansas. Razorbacks are really feeling the injury to guard Isaiah Joe, as they are not a deep team. PLaying on the road with just 2 days rest is a lot harder for this team than it is for others.
Arkansas is also just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road after 2 or more consecutive conference losses and 2-9 ATS last 11 after allowing 75+ points in 2 straight games. Favorite has also covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Florida!
|02-17-20||Xavier v. St. John's +2||Top||77-74||Loss||-109||7 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. John's +2 -109
I really like the value here with the Red Storm as a home dog against the Musketeers. St John's just won at home Wednesday against Providence 80-69 as a 5.5-point dog. The Red Storm will carry over that momentum into this one.
Xavier on the other hand just had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 61-66 loss at Butler on Wednesday. This team has had trouble bouncing from a loss, as they have multiple losing streaks in Big East play.
St John's is also going to be plenty motivated to get revenge from a mere 8-point loss at Xavier back in early January. Forcing turnovers is a big part of the Red Storm path to success and that's a weakness of the Musketeers. Xavier turned it over 19 times in the first meeting and that was at home. Those mistakes could be compounded here on the road and if St. John's gets that momentum early they should win here no problem.
Xavier is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS laying points in their last 6 as a road favorite. Red Storm are 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take St. John's!
|02-16-20||St. Louis BattleHawks +8 v. Houston Roughnecks||24-28||Win||100||77 h 25 m||Show|
4* XFL - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on St. Louis BattleHawks +8 -110
This is an easy play for me on St Louis. The BattleHawks were the only road team to get a win in Week 1, as they knocked off Dallas 15-9. Far from an impressive final score, but if you watched the game you know St Louis was the far superior team. The BattleHawks piled on 374 total yards, outgaining the Renegades by 107. They averaged 5.3 yards/play.
The Roughnecks put up 37 points in a blowout win at home over the Wildcats, which I think is definitely playing into the number here. Thing is, they only had 315 total yards and outgained LA by just 24 total yards in their 20-point win. Houston's offense was all pass and St Louis held Dallas without a TD pass and racked up 4 sacks.
Either way I think we are getting some big time value with the BattleHawks catching over a touchdown. Take St. Louis!
|02-16-20||Dallas Renegades -4 v. Los Angeles Wildcats||25-18||Win||100||40 h 31 m||Show|
4* XFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER on Dallas Renegades -4 -108
I like the value here with the Renegades laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Wildcats. Last week Dallas lost at home to the BattleHawks 9-15. They were the only home team to lose in Week 1.
However, the Renegades played that game with backup Philip Nelson at quarterback. Nelson completed 33 of 42 attempts, but for just 209 yards. That's not near the production you are looking for on 33 completions. This week starter Landry Jones is back and I think we are going to see Dallas' offense go off.
They will be up against a Wildcats defense that was torched in their opener, giving up 37 points and 315 total yards to the Roughnecks. Houston quarterback, PJ Walker, threw for 272 yards and 4 scores. Look for Jones to have a big day in this one. Take Dallas!
|02-16-20||Memphis v. Connecticut -4||61-64||Loss||-105||6 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut -4 -105
I like the value here with the Huskies laying a shot number at home against Memphis. UConn is just 4-7 in the AAC, but if you watch this team, especially here of late, you know that they are much better than their record. Huskies have lost 11 games this season, 9 of those by single-digits, including 3 overtime losses.
I think we are getting a steal here with them at this price. This is an absolutely brutal spot for Memphis, who lost a game they shouldn't have in Thursday's 86-92 overtime loss at Cincinnati. Not easy playing extra time on the road and then having just 2 days off before going back on the road against a quality opponent.
Memphis plays good defense and are solid on the boards, but that's not a concern here. UConn is 8-1 ATS last 9 at home vs good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or less at least 15 games into the season and 9-2 ATS last 11 at home vs teams who are outrebounding teams by 4+ boards/game. Huskies are also 21-10 ATS last 31 at home and 9-2 ATS last 11 when they have won 2 of their last 3. Take Connecticut!
|02-16-20||Iowa v. Minnesota -4.5||Top||58-55||Loss||-110||4 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Gophers as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has had their struggles on the road this season. Hawkeyes are 8-6 in Big Ten play and all 6 of those losses have come on the road. Iowa's only road win came against league worst Northwestern.
Don't be fooled by Iowa having already beat Minnesota 72-52 at home. At the same time, Minnesota is also a much different team at home compared to on the road. Gophers are 10-3 at home compared to 2-8 on the road.
The big key here besides the home/away splits is the health of Iowa. Hawkeyes are unlikely to have standout freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who rolled his ankle in their 77-89 loss at Indiana on Thursday.
Note that while Iowa is playing on a mere 2 days of rest here, Minnesota has been off since last Saturday. That extra time to prepare should only add to the edge here for the Gophers. Take Minnesota!
|02-15-20||Utah State -5 v. Fresno State||71-59||Win||100||15 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Utah State -5 -109
The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Bulldogs. This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah State given how well they are playing right now. The Aggies come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They got a realistic shot here of finishing No. 2 in the MWC behind San Diego State.
As for Fresno State, they avoided a 3rd straight loss with a 84-78 OT win at San Jose State, but that's not exactly a positive needing OT to beat a team like that. This has just not been a good year for the Bulldogs, who have a losing record at 5-6 at home. Even more important is their awful 2-7-1 ATS record in home lined games.
One thing Fresno State does well is generate offensive rebounds and they have to with how sloppy they are with the ball and their lack of shooting. Problem is the Aggies are a great defensive rebounding team. I just don't see the Bulldogs keeping this close. Take Utah State!
|02-15-20||Tennessee +4.5 v. South Carolina||61-63||Win||100||17 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +4½ -115
I think a lot of people will have a hard time backing Tennessee on the road at this price, especially with how well South Carolina has been playing. Frank Martin's Gamecocks just went on the road and destroyed Georgia 75-59, improving to 5-1 over their last 6 games.
One of the big reasons I think we are seeing the number a little low, is this has become a difficult spot for South Carolina. Just as everything was going well for the Gamecocks, news of NCAA allegations was announced Thursday. The slightest of distractions can derail a team and I just think they struggle to play well here.
Tennessee has also been playing well here of late and recently won as a road dog at Alabama. Last time out they absolutely destroyed Arkansas 82-61. Vols are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 off a win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after a win by 20 or more. Take Tennessee!
|02-15-20||Tampa Bay Vipers v. Seattle Dragons +3||9-17||Win||100||52 h 23 m||Show|
3* XFL - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle Dragons +3 -110
I like the value here with the Dragons as 3-point home dog against the Vipers. Seattle lost their opener 31-19 on the road to the defenders. DC might just be the tam to beat. Cardale Jones graded out as the best QB in the league in Week 1, throwing for 235 yards and 2 scores. The Dragons simply had no answer for him and wide out Eli Rogers (6 catches, 73 yards).
The defense should have a much easier time containing Tampa Bay's Aaron Murray, who was able to guide the Vipers to just 3-points in their 20-point loss at New York.
I also think you have to factor in home field advantage. Home team won 3 of the 4 games in Week 1 and Seattle is known across multiple sports for their loyal fan bases. Take Seattle!
|02-15-20||Notre Dame +12.5 v. Duke||60-94||Loss||-108||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +12½ -108
The Fighting Irish are definitely worth a look here as a double-digit underdog against the Blue Devils. I think Notre Dame is built to give Duke a tough contest. The Irish are certainly playing well coming in, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 with the only loss a mere 1-point setback on the road at Virginia (really should have won). They have covered 6 straighta against the number.
Duke is always going to have an inflated number on them because of how big a public play they are, so the value is definitely there. I also think this is a good spot to fade the Blue Devils, who have played two monster games leading up to this. Last Saturday they had that epic OT win over rival UNC and then Monday had to grind out a 5-point home win over FSU.
Another thing to note here is that this is Notre Dame's only regular-season game against Duke and given how big it is to play Duke for these other ACC teams, I think we get their best effort here. Irish are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Notre Dame!
|02-15-20||Louisville v. Clemson +6.5||62-77||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Clemson +6½ -110
I like the value here with Clemson getting a decent number at home in Saturday's matchup with No. 5 Louisville. The Cardinals had their 10-game winning streak snapped in a 58-64 loss at Georgia Tech on Wednesday as a similarly priced 6-point dog.
Louisville really came out sluggish in that contest and I think the perception here is they will bounce back. Easier said than done when playing on the road with just two days off against a hungry Clemson team that is going to lay it all on the line in this one.
Tigers had been struggling, but put an end to their 3-game skid with an emphatic 72-52 road win at Pitt on Wednesday. Not only will they be motivated here at home against a top ranked foe, but they will come in very confident.
Tigers are 15-5 ATS last 20 at home off a cover, 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Clemson!
|02-15-20||Georgia +1 v. Texas A&M||Top||69-74||Loss||-110||16 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +1 -110
I love the value here with the Bulldogs at basically a pick'em at Texas A&M. These two teams played a couple weeks ago at Georgia and the Bulldogs won convincingly 63-48.
Aggies had no answer for Georgia small ball up-tempo attack and really struggled to slow down star freshman Anthony Edwards. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect those same struggles in the rematch.
The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight since that win over Texas A&M, but that's almost a positive given they are 9-2 ATS last 2 years when coming off 3 or more straight conference losses. Aggies are also 0-7 ATS as a favorite, 0-6 ATS at home after playing a game as a home dog and 2-9 ATS last 11 at home when revening a loss. Take Georgia!
|02-14-20||World v. USA -4||131-151||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA - Rising Stars VEGAS INSIDER on USA -4 -110
I'm confident Team USA is going to come away with a win and cover in tonight's Rising Star Challenge. Last year Team USA won going away 161-144 and I think we could see another blowout in this one.
Team USA looks to be even better this year, as they got the two best rookies in the game in Ja Morant and Zion Williamson, who both look like guys who will be at or near the top of the game for a long time coming. Team World has Doncic, but much like USA's Trae Young, he doesn't figure to play a lot. Doncic and Young both made the real All-Star game on Sunday and aren't going to log many minutes in this thing.
With that said I think Zion and Morant are going to put on a show at the United Center. Take Team USA!
|02-14-20||Rider +5.5 v. Siena||64-73||Loss||-109||20 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider +5½ -109
Rider is definitely worth a look here at this price. This is a big number for the Broncs to be catching. These two teams already played once this season at Rider and the Broncos won that game 85-77. That was back in a stretch in which Rider was 2-6 over a 8 game run.
This time around the Broncs have won 5 of 6 and just won and covered as a 9-point home favoire against Niagara in their last game. There's no question they are going to be up for this one. That first meeting was heated. Multiple players were ejected.
In that first meeting Riders' guards Vaughn and Jordan combined for 50 points and the Broncs defense forced the Saints into 20 turnovers. No reason not to expect more of the same this time around.
Sienna is 2-6 ATS last 8 games off a win and 3-8 ATS last 11 times they have been listed as the favorite. Take Rider!
|02-14-20||Davidson v. St Bonaventure -3||Top||93-64||Loss||-104||20 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure -3 -104
I absolutely love the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number at home against the Wildcats. St Bonaventure comes into this game on a roll. Last time out they avoided the dreaded trap game, making easy work of St. Joes on the road after that big upset win at Duquesne.
You factor in how well the team is playing and the energy and excitement around this game, the atmosphere in the Reilly Center should be a big advantage for them. They don't get many prime time games on ESPN2 in their home gym.
On top of that, Davidson has shown no ability to play up their potential on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have really been underachievers all season. They are 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS when they are tasked with playing a game away from home. They are also a great fade when the books are giving them points. Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog. Take St. Bonaventure!
|02-13-20||Washington +4 v. USC||Top||56-62||Loss||-114||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Washington +4 -114
Easy play here on the Huskies. Most will look to stay clear of Washington, as they come into this game having lost 6 straight. Not me. Huskies are so close to getting this thing on track and I think they might have found something in the 2nd half against Washington State with their two point guard look.
USC is also not playing great right now. Trojans are reeling off 3 straight losses and fresh off a heartbreaking loss at ASU. I just think USC is in a bad place right now and are going to have a hard time putting the Huskies away. Keep in mind Washington absolutely owned the first meeting, beating the Trojans 72-40 back in early January.
USC has covered their last 2 and 7 of 9 overall, but that's a positive here. Trojans are 2-11 ATS last 13 at home after 2 or more straight covers and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after covering 4/5 of their last 6. USC is also a mere 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a favorite. Take Washington!
|02-13-20||Thunder v. Pelicans -2||123-118||Loss||-109||9 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pelicans -2 -109
The Pelicans are worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Thunder. New Orleans is playing with a ton of confidence right now. They are different looking team since adding in rookie phenom Zion Williamson. New Orleans has won 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall. Most recently destroying a hot Blazers team 138-117 on their home floor.
I expect to see a big effort here from the Pelicans to keep that positive momentum going into the All-Star break. As for the Thunder, they have lost their last two and both were at home, including a 8-point loss to the Spurs last time out as a 8-point favorite. OKC has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and I just don't see them flipping on the switch for one game before the break, especially on the road.
There's also triple-revenge in play, as the Thunder have won the first 3 meetings between these two this season. Thing is all 3 of those came in the first two months of the season (last played 12/1).
Pelicans are 34-18 ATS last 52 at home revenging a loss of 3-points or less. They are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite. Take New Orleans!
|02-13-20||Northern Colorado -4 v. Northern Arizona||Top||84-54||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Colorado -4 -103
I love the value here with Northern Colorado laying a short number on the road against Northern Arizona. The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge from a 6-point home loss to the Lumberjacks and are getting them at the right time. Lumberjacks have lost 2 of 3 and the lone win was in OT against Big Sky bottom feeder Idaho State.
One of the biggest strengths of Northern Arizona is their 3-point shooting. The Lumberjacks average 8 made 3-pointers and are shooting 38% on the season. They rank 2nd in Big Sky in 3-point shooting and yet are 7th in 2-point shooting.
Northern Colorado is elite in terms of defending the 3-pointer. The Bears are No. 1 in the Big Sky in 3-point pct. defense and 6th nationally. They are also 6th best in the country in percentage of shots they allow from 3-point range.
Last time these two played the Bears offense just wasn't in sync. Northern Colorado comes in averaging 75.2 ppg in their last 5 and the Lumberjacks are giving up 73.2 ppg in their last 5. Bears did make 9 3-pointers in the loss, but shot 38 for a mere 23.7%. On the season they shoot 37% from 3 and Northern Arizona is giving up 35% in conference play.
Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Northern Colorado!
|02-13-20||Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -2.5||66-74||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas State -2½ -109
The Bobcats are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Trojans. Little Rock has a big target on their back in the Sun Belt, as they are 3-games clear of the next best team in the league with a 12-2 mark.
The fact that they are a dog here speaks a lot to how much the books respect this Texas State team. There's definitely a lot to like with the Bobcats in this matchup. For starters, they will be out for revenge from a mere 4-point loss at Little Rock earlier this season.
This is also a Texas State team that is rolling.After starting out 1-4 in the Sun Belt, Bobcats have won 7 of their last 9 conference games. Really should be 8-1 in this stretch as they gave away a game last time out at App St.
They led 36-18 and lost 57-60, scoring just 6 points in the final 10 minutes of the game. No way they lose that if leading scorer Nijal Pearson plays. He'll be back for this one as he simply missed the game for the birth of his daughter.
Bobcats have led by 5 or more at the half in each of their last 3 games. Teams that have pulled off this feat are a dominating 81-40 (67%) ATS last 5 years in games with a line of +3 to -3 and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games. Take Texas State!
|02-13-20||Eastern Kentucky +4 v. Morehead State||78-71||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Eastern Kentucky +4 -110
I really like the value here with Eastern Kentucky as a road dog against Morehead State. The Colonels had been on a tear before a small hiccup on the road against SIU Edwardsville. The fact that they only lost by 8, despite shooting 7 for 37 on 3-pointers and missing one of their better players in Russhard Cruickshank, really says a lot about how good this team is.
Cruickshank should be ready to go as he's had another 4 days to recover after nearly giving it a go in their last game. Either way the Colonels should bounce back with a big effort here against the Eagles.
Morehead State is a misleading 3-1 over their last 4, as they had 3 straight games and wins over the 3 worst teams in the Ohio Valley. Those are their only 3 wins in their last 8 games. EKY is 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a road dog. Take Eastern Kentucky!
|02-13-20||Drexel +6 v. William & Mary||72-77||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Drexel +6 -109
The price here is too good to pass up with Drexel. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won that contest 84-57. It's really been the undoing for the Tribe, who came in at 6-0 in conference play and are now 8-5.
Drexel dominated every aspect of that game against William & Mary. I get they too have took a turn for the worse with 4 losses in their last 5, but no way should they be this big of a dog in this fight. Especially with how the Tribe's offense is struggling. William & Mary is averaging 58.2 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5 games.
It would be on thing if their defense was playing well, but they are giving up 70 ppg on 50% shooting during this same 5-game stretch. Tribe are 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS last 4 as a favorite. The road team and underdog are both 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. Take Drexel!
|02-12-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +2.5||120-116||Loss||-105||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Nuggets +2½ -105
Denver is definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Lakers. With how big a public play LA is right now, for the books to hang the Lakers at basically a pick'em, it's clear they like the Nuggets in this spot.
There's definitely reason to fade LA. Denver is one of the more difficult places to play, especially for teams who have had to do a lot of travel. The Lakers have been all over the place. After a home game last Thursday, they traveled to Golden State for a game on Saturday, they then returned home for a game Monday and now are back on the road for this one.
Add in the distractions of All-Star weekend, which is something they can focus on 100% once this game is over, as they don't play again until next Friday. I don't see Denver caring as much about getting to the break. Every team wants to beat the Lakers and the Nuggets are rolling into this one with a lot of confidence with 4 straight wins and covers.
Lakers are also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 3-7 ATS last 10 as a road favorite and 1-6 ATS last 7 on just 1 day of rest. Nuggets are 16-7 ATS last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Denver!
|02-12-20||Providence v. St. John's +2||69-80||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on St. John's +2 -105
I really like the spot and the value with St. John's as a home dog against the Friars. The Red Storm come in off 3 straight losses and we know they are going to be motivated here, especially playing with revenge from a earlier 5-point loss at Providence.
Friars aren't exactly coming into this one with momentum, as they let one slip away on the road Saturday in a 58-64 loss to Xavier. Providence is a mere 8-20 ATS last 3 seasons after playing their last game on the road, 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite.
While the Friars have struggled in this spot, St. John's has covered 5 of their last 7 off a game where they failed to cover and are a dominant 6-2 ATS last 8 times they have been listed as a home underdog. Take St. John's!
|02-12-20||Louisville v. Georgia Tech +6||58-64||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Tech +6 -105
The Yellow Jackets are worth a look here as a home dog against Louisville. There's no question who the better team is. The Cardinals are 21-3 and ranked No. 5 in the country and Georgia Tech is sitting there with a losing record at 11-13.
I think these are the toughest games for a team like Louisville, who is riding high on a 10-game winning streak, which they just extended to 10 with a grueling 80-73 win at home against Virginia. This is the definition of a letdown spot for the Cardinals.
On the flips side, Georgia Tech is going to relish the opportunity to try and knock off a Top 5 team on their home floor. Especially given how close the Yellow Jackets were to upsetting the Cardinals in Louisville a few weeks back, as they lost 64-68 as a 13-point dog.
Georgia Tech lost their last game 64-73 at Pitt, which only adds more value to this play, as the Yellow Jackets are a dominant 9-3 ATS off a loss this season (23-9 Last 32 off a loss). Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech!
|02-12-20||Hawks v. Cavs +2.5||105-127||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Cavs +2½ -110
This is an easy play here on Cleveland as a home dog against the Hawks. I get the Cavs are a bad team and are off an ugly 41-point loss at home to the Clippers, but no way should the Hawks be laying points on the road to any team in the league.
Atlanta is 6-23 on the road this season and they aren't just losing a bunch of close games. The Hawks are losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. It's easy to see why with how little defense they play. Atlanta allows 122.1 ppg on 49% shooting away from home. It's been even worse than that in their last 5 overall, as they are giving up 125 ppg on 49% shooting.
Hawks are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been asked to lay points on the road. Not to mention they are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland!
|02-11-20||Spurs v. Thunder -7.5||114-106||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Thunder -7½ -109
Easy play here on OKC at home against the Spurs. Big time bounce back spot for the Thunder off a hard fought 1-point loss at home to the Celtics. OKC is still 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games and will have a huge edge here playing on 1-day of rest. Not to mention the Thunder have had to do zero travel of late, playing their 4th straight at home.
As for the Spurs, they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an excruciating 120-127 loss at Denver last night. San Antonio had a 23-point lead over the Nuggets before suffering an absolute meltdown. This will be their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. I don't think there's any recovering from this for the Spurs until after the All-Star break.
Spurs are 2-11 ATS last 13 road games in the month of February, 4-12 ATS last 16 when playing 6 or more games in a 10 day stretch and 2-11 ATS last 13 after losing 4/5 of their last 6. Thunder are 13-4 ATS last 17 after winning 4 of their last 5. Take OKC!
|02-11-20||Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +13||Top||78-64||Loss||-110||13 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - SEC ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +13 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Commodores as a big double-digit home dog against the Wildcats. Vanderbilt comes in with a 1-9 record in SEC play, which I think has them way undervalued, especially with how well they have been playing.
Commodores have covered 4 straight and all 4 have come against some quality opponents. They lost by just 9 as a 21-point road dog at Kentucky, then lost by just 6 at home to Florida as a 11.5-point dog. They proceeded to then beat LSU 99-90 as a 11.5-point home dog and last time out lost by just 10 at Mississippi State as a 15.5-point dog.
Even though it's a long-shot, I can guarantee you Vanderbilt is approaching this game with the confidence they not only keep it close, but win outright. For a Kentucky team that is sitting at 8-2 and fresh off a big road win at Tennessee, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them lay an egg here.
Wildcats are just 2-9 ATS this season as a favorite of 10 or more and Commodores are 4-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 last 4 as a dog. Take Vanderbilt!
|02-11-20||Bowling Green +7.5 v. Akron||59-74||Loss||-114||13 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bowling Green +7½ -114
The Falcons are worth a look here as a big road dog against the Zips. Bowling Green suffered a big blow when one of their best players, Dylan Frye, decided to just up and leave the program. Frye was a big part of that team, but if there's a team that can overcome a loss like that it's the Falcons.
I feel the books have inflated the number here on Akron too much. The Zips snapped a two game skid with a win at home over Eastern Michigan, but it was far from a dominant showing. Akron won by the slimmest of margins 59-58, coming no where close to covering as a 12-point favorite. Zips continued to struggle from the field and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Bowling Green won this game outright.
Falcons are 13-5 ATS last 18 times they have been listed as a dog, 13-3 ATS last 16 off a home conference win and 14-5 ATS last 19 on the road off a home win. Take Bowling Green!
|02-10-20||Suns v. Lakers -12.5||100-125||Win||100||15 h 38 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Lakers -12½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number with the Lakers at home on Monday. LA avoided a second straight loss with a 125-120 win at Golden State and I think there's some motivation here for them to play well in these last two games before the All-Star break.
As for the Suns, they are really struggling to get going. Phoenix has lost 5 of their last 6. While their lone win was a 36-point victory over the Rockets, Houston was resting guys and in a massive flat spot in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back after beating these Lakers the night before.
This also has to be a tired Suns team. Phoenix will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and 6th in the last 9. I just don't see them having the energy needed to keep this game close and let's not forget the Suns are still dealing with a lot of injuries right now.
Phoenix is 7-18 ATS last 25 when playing 6 or more games in a 10-day stretch and are 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Lakers are 7-0 ATS this season at home off a road win. Take Los Angeles!
|02-10-20||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||65-70||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida State +8½ -115
Easy play here on the Seminoles as a near double-digit dog at Duke. I just think there's too much value with FSU in this spot. Blue Devils come into this game off an improbable 98-96 OT win on the road against rival North Carolina. Not only did the game go to OT, but Duke had to rally from double-digits down late in the 2nd half and eventually won the game on a last second shot.
I know the Seminoles are not a team to overlook and I expect Duke to play hard, I just don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to pull away and win this thing by more than the number. In fact, if they struggle at all this is a game the Seminoles can win outright.
FSU can light it up. Seminoles are shooting 46% from the field and 37% from deep on the season. Duke is just 3-15 ATS last 2 seasons when playing a team at least 15 games into the season that is hitting 45% or better from the field. Blue Devils are also 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida State!
|02-09-20||Heat +5 v. Blazers||109-115||Loss||-105||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Heat +5 -105
I like the value here with Miami catching a decent number on the road against the Blazers. I just think we are getting a good price on the Heat here due to the fact that they won't have Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro. However, they are expected to debut a couple of their new additions in Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala.
The other big there here is I think this is a really tough spot for Portland. Blazers just suffered a crushing 114-117 loss at Utah on Friday in the second leg of a back-to-back. A game they led by 14 at the half and got screwed on a non-goaltending call late. Now they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and this is where their lack of depth really hurts them.
Miami lost 97-105 at Sacramento on Friday, but the Heat are a dominant 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss. Miami has struggled on the road, but Portland is a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 4-9 ATS last 13 off a SU loss. Take Miami!
|02-09-20||Evansville +12.5 v. Bradley||Top||58-69||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Evansville +12½ -107
I really like the value here with the Purple Aces as a huge road dog against the Braves. Evansville is a team the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with, as they are winless in MVC play at 0-11. That has left the books no choice but to inflate the number in their games and I just feel there's a ton of value here.
While the losses keep mounting, the Purple Aces have been on the verge of that first conference win. They just took Southern Illinois to OT at home in their last game, lost by just 12 at home to UNI in their previous game and only lost by 11 at Illinois St and by 2 at Valpo in their two before that.
Bradley has lost 4 of their last 6 and are off back-to-back double-digit losses at Loyola and Drake. I just think they are going to have a hard time here giving an Evansville team they beat by 20 on the road their full attention. Purple Aces' ability to defend the 3-pointer (29th nationally) is also huge, as the Braves are 313th in 2-point shooting. Take Evansville!
|02-08-20||Pepperdine v. Pacific -3||78-79||Loss||-109||13 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Pacific -3 -109
Easy play here on the Tigers as a small home favorite against the Waves. Pacific is rolling right now, as they come in having won 3 straight to improve to 6-4 in WCC action. Tigers are tough to beat at home, where they are 12-4 this season and they already beat Pepperdine on the road earlier this year.
Tigers are 32-15 ATS last 47 home games off 2 straight conference wins and should have a field day offensively in this one, as the Waves are giving up 83.2 ppg on 49% shooting in road games this season. While some of that has to do with their non-conf schedule, they are allowing 81.2 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5 games.
Pepperdine is off a 91-77 win at home over Santa Clara, but are just 2-7 ATS last 9 off a SU win. They are also 2-8 ATS last 10 after winning 2 of 3 and 1-7 ATS last 8 after scoring 80 or more. Take Pacific!
|02-08-20||Northern Arizona v. Weber State -2||70-76||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Weber State -2 -109
I really like the value here with the Wildcats at basically a pick'em on their home floor against Northern Arizona. Weber State has caught fire here of late with 3 wins in their last 4 to go from 2-6 in Big Sky play to 5-7. I look for them to build on that momentum and get revenge from an earlier 8-point loss at Northern Arizona.
The big thing to note with the Lumberjacks win in the first meeting is they only won by 8 on their home floor, despite shooting 57% from the field and 56% from behind the 3-point line. You shoot like that, you should win by 20+. I just don't see them having near the success on the road, where they are scoring just 68.8 ppg on 43.7% shooting.
With Weber State scoring 80.9 ppg on 50% shooting at home, I just don't see Northern Arizona being able to score enough to win this one. Wildcats are 70-44 (61%) ATS last 114 when revenging a road loss and 32-15 ATS last 47 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take Weber State!
|02-08-20||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -8||Top||73-75||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -8 -110
Easy play here on the Orange at home against the Demon Deacons. Syracuse should have zero problem beating Wake Forest by double-digits Saturday. Lot to like with the Orange in this one, as they have had a full week off to get their minds right following a tough home loss to Duke last Saturday. Huge motivational spot for Syracuse to put their 2-game losing streak to rest.
As for the Demon Deacons, this is not an ideal spot for them playing on the road for a second straight game after a grueling loss at home to Louisville on Wednesday. I just don't think 2 days is enough for Wake Forest to get their minds right for this game and they have had their troubles keeping games respectable on the road (3 of their last 4 on the road have resulted in losses by 10 or more).
Demon Deacons are also just 2-7 overall, which is worth noting, as they are a mere 14-33 ATS last 47 on the road when they come in having lost 6/7 of their last 8. They are also just 3-13 ATS last 16 road games off a conference loss. Favorite has also covered 5 straight in the series. Take Syracuse!
|02-08-20||Pelicans v. Pacers -2||124-117||Loss||-109||8 h 39 m||Show|
4* BEST BET on Pacers -2 -109
Analysis will be posted shortly
|02-08-20||South Florida +8.5 v. Memphis||75-73||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Situational ATS DESTROYER on South Florida +8½ -109
I like the value here with South Florida as a near double-digit dog on the road against Memphis. While the Tigers come in having won 3 straight, only one of those was by more than 7 points and that was against a bad Temple team last time out.
I just don't think this Memphis team can be trusted to lay a number like this. South Florida has got some momentum going with back-to-back wins and are off one of their best games this season, beating UCF by 16 at home last Saturday. Bulls will also draw plenty of confidence and motivation from a near upset of Memphis at home earlier this season, which they lost by just 4 points.
Having a week to prepare for USF is huge, especially given that Memphis has quick turnaround after playing on Wednesday. Tigers also struggle with turnovers and had 22 against the Bulls in that first meeting. South Florida should have a big edge there again, which will make it really hard on Memphis to pull away.
Bulls are 18-6 ATS last 24 off a home win, 13-3 ATS last 16 after playing 2 straight games as a favorite, 14-4 ATS last 18 off 2 straight wins and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 off two straight covers as a favorite. Take South Florida!
|02-08-20||Furman -4 v. Western Carolina||82-73||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Furman -4 -109
The Paladins are worth a look here as a small road favorite at Western Carolina. Furman is sitting tied on top the Southern Conference at 9-2 with East Tennessee State and are one of the better small conference teams not a lot of people know about. Paladins are 73rd right now in KenPom.
Western Carolina in comparison is sitting at No. 158. Furman comes into this one playing extremely well, as they have won 4 straight, most recently destroying Mercer 79-57 at home. That was the same Mercer team they only beat by 2 on the road earlier this season.
The Catamounts fall into a similar spot, as they gave the Paladins a really good game back in January, losing by just 4 on the road. I don't see Furman playing around with Western Carolina this time around.
Look for turnovers to be the difference maker, as the Paladins are 26th nationally in defensive turnover rate, while Western Carolina is 236th in offensive turnover rate. Paladins are also 13-4 ATS last 17 as a road favorite and 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference home win. Take Furman!
|02-08-20||VMI v. The Citadel||75-64||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on VMI PK -110
I like the value here with the Keydets at a pick'em on the road against The Citadel. All you have to do here is look at the recent history between these two teams to see the value with VMI. The Keydets have covered 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series and are covering by almost 7 ppg.
You also have to factor in all the injuries that the Bulldogs are dealing with. Not only do they got several key guys out, but those that are able to play are playing at less than 100%. On top of that, The Citadel is sitting winless in Southern Conference play at 0-11. They aren't just losing, they are getting beat badly, as 6 of their last 7 losses are by 9 or more points.
Playing another bad team hasn't helped them out much either. Bulldogs are 15-34-2 ATS last 51 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. VMI on the other hand is 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have faced a team that's allowing 77 or more points/game. Take VMI!
|02-07-20||Iona +6 v. Quinnipiac||Top||73-52||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iona +6
I love the value here with the Gaels as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. It hasn't been the easiest of seasons for Iona, as they try to make it work under interim head coach Tra Arnold, but this is just too good a price to pass up.
Quinnipiac is setting 3rd in the MAAC at 6-4, but they are just 2-4 in league play after starting out 4-0. Most recently losing by 16 on the road at Niagara, who is ranked just slightly higher than the Gaels.
Bobcats have been a good fade at home off a road loss. They are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home off a conference road loss and a mere 1-11 ATS in their last 12 at home off a road loss by 10 or points.
Quinnipiac has also not had much luck against teams that make a living from the 3-point line. Bobcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Take Iona!
|02-06-20||Santa Clara +3 v. Pepperdine||77-91||Loss||-115||14 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Santa Clara +3 -115
I really like the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Waves. These two teams just played two weeks ago at Santa Clara and it came down to the wire with Pepperdine winning 90-86 in OT. Since 1997 the Broncos are 60% ATSS when revening a same season loss.
Most might think the Waves are the way with this time the game being played on their home floor. However, Pepperdine is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also 2-10 ATS last 12 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS last 8 as a home favorite. Road team and underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series. Take Santa Clara!
|02-06-20||Pelicans v. Bulls +5||125-119||Loss||-105||10 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +5 -105
The Bulls are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pelicans. The books are absolutely begging you to take New Orleans here, as they are feeding into the Zion Williamson hype. I know Chicago has disappointed and are dealing with some injuries, but they are going to show up with a big effort here.
Zion has looked great, but the Pelicans are just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS in the 7 games since he made his debut. I really think this is a tough spot for them having just recently played at Houston and then at home against the Bucks. Really easy for them to look past a struggling Bulls team on the road.
Pelicans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago in the meantime will be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday and are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Chicago!
|02-06-20||North Texas v. Middle Tennessee +8.5||75-70||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Middle Tennessee +8½ -110
I like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a near double-digit dog at home against the Mean Green. North Texas just had their 8-game winning streak snapped in an ugly 75-84 loss at Rice as a 8.5-point favorite. Prior to that they struggled to put away a bad UTEP team. I just think it's asking a lot for the Mean Green to win here in blowout fashion.
Middle Tennessee is just 2-8 in C-USA play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, including a win at UTSA in their last game as a 8-point dog. Blue Raiders haven't been nearly as bad as their conference record and that shows in their 6-4 ATS mark in C-USA play.
Blue Raiders have gone 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a dog and are 10-2 ATS last 12 off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more. Home team has also covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Middle Tennessee!
|02-06-20||Cincinnati v. Wichita State -4||Top||80-79||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wichita State -4 -110
I love the value here with the Shockers as a small home favorite against the Bearcats. I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with Wichita State at home given how motivated the Shockers are going to be off a close 3-point loss at Tulsa. Not to mention Wichita State is 13-1 on their home floor this season.
Cincinnati has won 4 straight, but 3 of those 4 were at home and the other was at a bad Temple team. We saw these same Bearcats lost by 11 at Memphis on the road. I also think this is a really tough spot for Cincinnati coming off that emotional 64-62 win at home over Houston, where they rallied from 15 down to get the win.
Bearcats are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 3-13 ATS last 16 as a road dog. Shockers are 7-3 ATS last 10 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Wichita State!
|02-06-20||Elon +3.5 v. NC-Wilmington||62-56||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Elon +3½ -110
I like the value here with the Phoenix getting points on the road against the Seahawks. I just don't think UNC Wilmington should be favored. They are a mere 2-9 in CAA play and their two wins are both by a mere 2-points. They come in off back-to-back double-digit losses on the road to Townson and most recently at James Madison by 17.
These two teams played earlier this season and the Phoenix won by 17 at home, which I think speaks for itself in the value with them getting points in the rematch. UNC Wilmington simply can't score. They are last in the CAA in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Not to mention they struggle with turnovers and aren't good on the boards. They also are bottom of the pack in defense.
Seahawks are 1-5 ATS last 6 as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Elon!
|02-05-20||Western Carolina -5 v. Samford||78-70||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Western Carolina -5 -105
Easy play here on the Catamounts laying a really short number on the road against Samford. The Bulldogs are simply one of the worst teams in the conference. Samford has lost 8 straight games with each of the last 7 setbacks coming by 7 or more.
There's a lot the Bulldogs do well. They are 9th in the Southern Conference in offensive efficiency and 10th (last) in effective field goal percentage. They are also 10th in both of these categories on the defensive side of the ball.
Samford is a mere 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team with a winning record, 2-11 ATS last 13 as a dog and 1-9 ATS last 10 after giving up 80 or more in their last game. Catamounts should win and win big. Take Western Carolina!
|02-04-20||Air Force +11 v. Nevada||54-88||Loss||-112||16 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Air Force +11 -112
The Falcons are definitely worth a look here as a double-digit road dog at Nevada. This is just way too many points for the Wolf Pack to be laying with how they are playing. Nevada is just 3-5 over their last 8 games and have lost their last two.
Air Force has lost 4 straight and failed to cover all 4, but that's definitely playing into this favorable price we are getting. Falcons will be extremely motivated here and have had a full week to prepare, having not played since last Tuesday at home against Fresno State. As for Nevada, they were in action on Saturday.
Air Force is a profitable 28-17-1 ATS when they have an advantage in rest under head coach Dave Pilipovich. Falcons are also 15-7 ATS last 22 games vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Air Force!
|02-04-20||Tennessee +6 v. Alabama||69-68||Win||100||12 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tennessee +6 -110
I like the value here with the Volunteers as a decently priced road dog against the Crimson Tide. Alabama went on that ridiculous 12-game ATS run and I think it simply has them overvalued right now. Tide have failed to cover each of their last 3 games.
During this stretch they only won by 3 at home against K-State as a 9.5-point favorite, lost by 14 at LSU as a mere 3-point dog and most recently lost by 4 as a 3.5-point home favorite against Arkansas.
Big reason things have gone south for Alabama is injuries. I think the loss of Herb Jones is huge as he was one of their top defenders. Without him they let the Razorbacks shoot 48% from the field and while Tennessee has lost 3 straight they have shot the ball well. Vols are shooting 48% from the field in their last 5 games.
Tennessee is a profitable 36-18 ATS off 2 straight conference losses, while Alabama is a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Take Tennessee!
|02-03-20||Eastern Washington v. Northern Arizona -1||Top||77-66||Loss||-110||10 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Sky PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northern Arizona -1 -110
I love the value here with the Lumberjacks at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Eagles. I get Eastern Washington is sitting on top the Big Sky right now, but Northern Arizona is rolling right now. Lumberjacks have won 5 straight and are a strong 7-2 at home this season.
Speaking of playing at home, this will be the 4th straight home game for the Lumberjacks, which is huge this time of year. As for the Eagles, they just played at Sacramento State on Saturday and will be back on the road with just 1 day of rest.
Another thing here is Eastern Washington has not defended the 3-point line very well and this Northern Arizona team can light you up from deep. They are averaging 9 made 3's on their home floor and are shooting 39% from behind the 3-point line at home.
Lumberjacks are also 8-1 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Northern Arizona!
|02-03-20||Warriors v. Wizards -5.5||125-117||Loss||-105||9 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards -5½ -105
I really like the value here with Washington laying what I feel is a short number at home against the Warriors. I think we are getting such a great number with the Wizards due to the Warriors coming in off a 131-112 win at Cleveland, but you can't read anything into that win with how bad the Cavs are playing right now.
Prior to that win the Warriors had gone just 1-15 in their previous 16 with 12 of those 15 losses coming by more than the number here. I get Washington doesn't have that much better of a record than Golden State, but they are 11-11 at home and the Warriors are 4-22 on the road. Wizards also come in having won two straight and covered 5 of their last 7.
Golden State is also just 9-21 ATS last 30 off a win by 15 or more and 2-9 ATS off a win as a road dog (0-3 this season). Take Washington!
|02-02-20||CS-Northridge v. Hawaii -6||75-80||Loss||-109||15 h 49 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Hawaii -6 -109
I like the value here with the Rainbow Warriors at home against CS-Northridge. Hawaii is at a huge advantage here, as they get ready to play their 4th straight at home. Rainbow Warriors haven't had to leave their island in over two weeks. They have also won each of those last 3 at home.
The Matadores have been hit or miss of late, as they have alternated wins and losses since a 3-game winning streak around the new year holiday. They come in off a win at home over UC-Santa Barbara, but lost their previous game at Fullerton.
While Hawaii hasn't had to leave home, Northridge will be playing their 5th road game in their last 7 games overall. Take Hawaii!
|02-01-20||Lakers v. Kings +6||129-113||Loss||-105||11 h 3 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS DOMINATOR on Kings +6 -105
The Kings are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Lakers. I think a lot of people thought LA was going to come out and light the world on fire in their first game since the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, but instead they lost 119-127 at home to the Blazers as a 13-point favorite.
I just think it's going to take some time for the Lakers to get back in the groove of things and it's really hard to see them playing well in this spot. LA will be on no rest and even more so off the emotional night that was centered around Kobe. I could see LA not showing up at all for this game. Sacramento on the other hand is going to be motivated for a shot at beating the Lakers and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won outright. Take Sacramento!
|02-01-20||Clemson -1 v. Wake Forest||44-56||Loss||-110||11 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS MONEYMAKER on Clemson -1 -110
I really like the value here with the Tigers at basically a pick'em at home against the Demon Deacons. Clemson is coming off a big time 71-70 win at home over Syracuse a game the Tigers can get a lot of confidence from. Orange had really been playing well coming into that game and Clemson won despite a poor effort from their best player in Aamir Simms.
Look for the Tigers to have their way here against a struggling Wake Forest team. Demon Deacons have lost 6 of 7 with their only win against BC at home. While Clemson only won by 3 at home over WF in an earlier meeting, they shot 50% from the field and it really should have been a much bigger blowout.
Tigers are 23-10 ATS last 33 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS last 10 off a SU win. Road team has also covered 5 of the last 7 and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6. Take Clemson!
|02-01-20||Coastal Carolina v. Arkansas State -2||83-77||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas State -2 -110
I like the value here with the Red Wolves at basically a pick'em at home against the Chanticleers. This is just too good a price to pass up with Arkansas State. Red Wolves are off a home loss to Appalachian State, but had won 3 straight prior to the setback.
Coastal Carolina is the perfect team for them to get back on track against. Chanticleers have lost 4 straight, three of those at home. The most recent was on the road Thursday at Little Rock and they got annihilated by 17. Hard to see them showing up with the kind of effort needed to win this game on just 1 day of rest.
Coastal Carolina is 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and the Red Wolves are 10-1 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and 6-1 ATS last 7 as a home favorite. Take Arkansas State!
|02-01-20||Wyoming v. San Jose State -3.5||71-66||Loss||-109||7 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on San Jose State -3½ -109
I really like the value here with the Spartans as a small home favorite against the Cowboys. San Jose State has lost 4 of 5 and fresh off a 26-point blowout loss at Boise State. It might make you think they are a team to avoid, but Wyoming is a team they should honestly be favored by more against.
Cowboys have lost 8 straight and all but one of those came by fewer than 9 points, so it's not like they are close to winning. Wyoming is 0-10 in Mountain West play and for them to be favored by this little on the road is a bit of a joke.
Spartans have covered 4 of their last 5 at home and are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take San Jose State!
|02-01-20||Miami-OH +4.5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||55-70||Loss||-109||7 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami-OH +4½ -109
I love the value here with the Redhawks as a small road dog against the Huskies. Miami (OH) had their game on Tuesday postponed, which means they haven't been in action since last Saturday. That should work out as a big positive for the Redhawks in this one, especially with Northern Illinois playing on just 3 days of rest.
Huskies are also a team that has had a real hard time playing up to their potential against lesser opponents. Northern Illinois is a mere 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a losing record. They have also failed to cover 5 of their last 6 as a favorite.
Adding even more value here is how the dog has owned this series, cashing a winning ticket in 17 of the last 21 meetings between these two teams. Take Miami (OH)!
|02-01-20||Louisville v. NC State +3.5||77-57||Loss||-110||5 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on NC State +3½ -110
The Wolfpack are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Cardinals. The fact that NC State is only a 3.5-point dog really says it all, as the books know the public is going to pound No. 6 ranked Louisville in this one. Cardinals have won 7 straight, while the Wolfpack have lost their last two.
Thing is, while Louisville's last two wins have both come in blowout fashion, their previous 4 games were all decided by 6-points or less, including a mere 3-point win at Notre Dame and a OT win at Pitt. Two teams that I think NC State is better than.
Wolfpack are coming off a shocking 10-point loss at home to a struggling UNC team, but you have to think some of that was them looking ahead to this game. They are 12-5-1 ATS last 18 off a double-digit loss at home and have gone a dominant 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a home dog. Home team has also covered 5 straight in the series. Take NC State!
|02-01-20||Creighton v. Villanova -6||76-61||Loss||-109||3 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Villanova -6 -109
Easy play here on the Wildcats laying what I feel is a very favorable number at home against the Bluejays. Villanova is rolling right now, as they come in having won 7 straight. Hard to see them slowing down at home, where they are a perfect 10-0 this season, including 5-0 at home in Big East play.
Creighton comes in having won 3 straight, but are just 3-4 away from home. Even more important is how the Bluejays have not been able to crack the code of Jay Wright and Villanova. Wildcats are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. That includes a 6-point win at Creighton earlier this season and Villanova won that game shooting just 38% from the field.
Wildcats are 31-15 ATS last 46 as a home favorite and the Bluejays are a mere 12-25 ATS last 37 as an underdog. Take Villanova!
|01-31-20||Nuggets v. Bucks -9.5||127-115||Loss||-109||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Bucks -9½ -109
Easy play here on Milwaukee at home against the Nuggets. This is an absolutely brutal spot on the road for Denver. The Nuggets were able to rally to take down the Jazz 106-100 last night in a nationally televised game on TNT. Denver really laid it all on the line in that one and had to given how short-handed they are right now with all the injuries they are dealing with.
A lot easier to overcome those injuries at home and Utah looks to be running out of gas here of late after their crazy run. I just don't see the Nuggets have anything close to what will be needed to keep this game close against a Bucks team that is playing their 2nd straight at home and on a full 2 days of rest.
Denver is 2-7 ATS last 9 games when playing on 0 days of rest and 3-7-2 ATS last 12 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. They have also failed to cover 4 of their last 5 off a win. Take Milwaukee!
|01-30-20||Oregon State +7 v. Stanford||68-63||Win||100||14 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon State +7 -110
I really like the value here with the Beavers as a near double-digit dog against the Cardinal. I get Oregon State comes in having lost and failed to cover each of their last 4 games, but I think that's why we are getting such a great number with the Beavers in this matchup.
Stanford started out Pac-12 play with 4 straight wins, but I think a lot of that had to do with a favorable schedule to start out league play. They have since lost back-to-back on the road to USC and most recently rival Cal.
Cardinal are just 1-4 ATS last 5 off a SU loss. Oregon State is 10-4 ATS last 14 off a double-digit loss at home and 6-2 ATS last 8 as a road dog. Road team has also covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Take Oregon State!
|01-30-20||76ers v. Hawks +7.5||117-127||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Hawks +7½ -110
I like the value here with the Hawks as a decently priced home dog against the 76ers. I just think we are getting a great price here with Atlanta due to the fact that Philadelphia has won 6 of their last 7. They are just 4-3 ATS in this stretch and only one of those covers was on the road in a 6-point win as a 2-point favorite at Brooklyn.
Fading the 76ers away from home is definitely a wise move. Philadelphia is just 9-15 SU and 9-14 ATS on the road this season. They have been especially bad against the spread away from home here of late, going just 1-8 ATS in their last 9.
76ers will also play this one without Al Horford, which is a big blow with Embiid not 100% yet back from injury and is on a minutes restriction. Take Atlanta!
|01-30-20||College of Charleston -5.5 v. James Madison||Top||87-68||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Colonial Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on College of Charleston -5½ -110
Love the value here with the Cougars laying what I think is a really small number on the road against a bad James Madison team. I believe the value with Charleston stems from their recent run that's saw them go 1-3 in their last 4 and fail to cover 5 straight.
Two of those losses were by 3-points or less and they should have no problem bouncing back with a convincing win against the Dukes. James Madison is just 1-8 in league play. They have lost 6 straight and are 0-5-1 ATS in this stretch. Each of their last 4 setbacks have come by at least 7 points.
Going on the road after playing their last few at home has been a huge buy on spot for Charleston, as the Cougars are 5-0 ATS last 5 on the road after playing 3 straight at home. Dukes are 7-19 ATS last 26 as a dog and have failed to cover 7 straight games vs a team with a winning record. Take Charleston!
|01-29-20||St. Louis v. La Salle +4||77-76||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on La Salle +4 -110
I really like the value here with the Explorers as a home dog against the Billikens. I just think we are getting a great price here on La Salle due to the fact that they come in having lost 5 straight. Thing is 3 of the 5 were on the road and one of the home games was against VCU.
St Louis has won 4 of 6, but they continue to be overvalued by the books. The Billikens are just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games. They have failed to cover 5 of their last 7 when laying points and are just 1-7 ATS after holding their previous opponent to less than 50 (allowed 39 to Fordham). Explorers are 5-2 ATS last 7 as a home dog and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a double-digit loss at home (lost 76-65 to VCU). Take La Salle!
|01-29-20||Bulls v. Pacers -9||106-115||Push||0||8 h 55 m||Show|
3* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR Pacers -9 -109
I got no problem laying the big number with the Pacers at home against the Bulls. Chicago comes in off a big 110-109 home win over the Spurs, but that came as no surprise. San Antonio was without big man LaMarcus Aldridge and were in a brutal spot playing on no rest after being forced to play the day before in an emotional affair against the Raptors following the news of Kobe's death.
I just don't see Chicago having what it takes to keep this game close. Bulls are absolutely decimated with injuries right now and Indiana is getting back their best player in Victor Oladipo. I know Oladipo's impact will likely be limited early on, but I think his return gives this Pacers team a big shot in the arm. Bulls have also gone just 8-15 on the road and the Pacers are 17-5 at home. Chicago has failed miserably when facing top tier teams and this will be no different. Take Indiana!
|01-29-20||Dayton v. Duquesne +9||Top||73-69||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
5* NCAAB A-10 PLAY OF THE MONTH on Duquesne +9 -110
Love the value here with the Dukes as a near double-digit home dog against the Flyers. Dayton comes in at 7-0 in A-10 play and have won 9 straight overall and it simply has the Flyers laying way to big a number on the road against a Duquesne team that is not only capable of covering but winning this game outright.
The Dukes come in having lost their last two, both on the road. The first was understandable at Rhode Island, but losing at UMass really looks bad. You just have to factor in the spot. Playing on just two days of rest in back-to-back road games in a major lookahead spot with this game on deck. Duquesne is a perfect 8-0 at home this season and have gone 4-1-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Duquesne!
|01-29-20||Davidson v. George Washington +5.5||104-107||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on George Washington +5½ -109
Easy play here on the Colonials as a home dog against Davidson. While the Wildcats have won and covered 3 straight, the last two were at home and the other was on the road against a bad Fordham team. I think this recent stretch has Davidson back to being overvalued, especially on the road where they are just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS.
George Washington has been a covering machine of late. The Colonials have cashed a winning ticket in 5 of their last 6 games and are 3-1 in their last 4, with two outright wins as a dog. The big thing to note is this surge for GW has coincided with the move to insert freshman Chase Paar into the starting lineup. He's been a difference maker and it should have the Colonials continuing to show value the rest of the way. Take George Washington!
|01-28-20||Suns +7.5 v. Mavs||Top||133-104||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns +7½ -105
I love the value here with Phoenix catching a big number against the Mavs tonight. This is just a really tough spot for Dallas, who were in action last night at Oklahoma City, which concluded a really tough 3-game road trip that started in Portland and also had them playing at Utah Saturday.
They were able to knock off OKC last night 107-97, but caught a big break with Chris Paul not playing and they got a big lookahead game on Thursday at Houston. It's really asking a lot of Dallas to be at their best in this one.
Suns can be a dangerous team when they are on and it will definitely help matters that they have been off since Sunday. Phoenix has also been a good bet away from home when getting points. Suns are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road as an underdog. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings in the series with a 5-1 ATS mark in their last 6 games at Dallas. Take Phoenix!
|01-28-20||Villanova v. St. John's +3.5||79-59||Loss||-109||7 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on St. John's +3½ -109
I really the value here with the Red Storm catching points at home. St John's comes in with a mere 2-6 mark in Big East play, but it's not as bad as it looks. Their 4 conference road games, all losses, have come against Xavier, Georgetown, Providence and Marquette. They also have home losses to Butler and Seton Hall, but could have easily won both, losing by 2 to the Bulldogs and by 3 to the Pirates.
St John's definitely has what it takes to win outright and I think that's why the books are begging the public to lay the short number with Villanova. Red Storm have won 2 of the last 3 meetings and I think they are catching the Wildcats in a good spot, playing on just 2 days of rest after a big road win at Providence.
Plus, Villanova is likely to be down one of their better players in Jermaine Samuels, which is a big blow as they are a much better team with him on the floor than not. St John's is also 9-3-1 ATS at home this season and are 6-1 ATS last 7 as a home dog. Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS last 13 on the road and just 2-6-1 ATS last 9 as a road favorite. Take St John's!
|01-27-20||Wisconsin v. Iowa -5.5||62-68||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iowa -5½ -110
I really like the value here with Iowa laying what I feel is a short number at home against the Badgers. Hawkeyes are 9-1 at home this season and haven't lost at home since early November. They have been outstanding at home in Big Ten play, knocking off Minnesota, Maryland Michigan and Rutgers.
Wisconsin really has a hard time on the road for a couple of reasons. The biggest being they don't shoot the ball nearly as well, especially from the outside and they don't defend the outside shot. That's a recipe for disaster with this Iowa team. It's also a lot harder to get teams to play at your pace on the road. Another big problem against the Hawkeyes who are tops in the Big Ten in tempo.
Wisconsin also isn't great on the boards. They had just 16 rebounds in their 19-point loss at Purdue. Iowa is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten, so even when the shots aren't falling, Hawkeyes figure to get multiple chances to put the ball in the basket.
Add in Iowa has been off since Wednesday and will be playing just their second game in 10 days and I just think it adds up to an easy win and cover for the home team. Take Iowa!
|01-27-20||Magic v. Heat -5||Top||92-113||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA - Southeast Division PLAY OF THE MONTH on Heat -5 -109
Easy play here on Miami laying a short number at home against the Magic. The Heat are dealing with some injuries right now, which is keeping this line a lot lower than it should be.
Butler, Dragic and Nunn are all questionable to play. Dragic and Nunn were held out of their last game, a 117-122 loss at home to the Clippers, while Butler hurt his ankle and wasn't able to return. I think there's a good chance Dragic and/or Nunn return for this one, but even if they don't it's hard to not like Miami in this one.
That's because the Heat are a ridiculous 20-2 at home this season and to only lose by 5 without all those guys against the Clippers says a lot about the depth of this team. Miami hasn't played since Friday and are 9-1 this season on 2 days of rest.
Magic are also in a really tough spot. Orlando had to play an emotional game yesterday at home against the Clippers after the news of Kobe Bryants death. This team has gone just 1-6 on no rest this season and there's an added challenge here with how tough it was to play yesterday's game given the horrific news. Take Miami!
|01-25-20||Mavs +5 v. Jazz||107-112||Push||0||5 h 5 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ATS Line Mistake on Mavs +5 -105
I like the value here with Dallas as a decently priced road dog against the Jazz. Utah has been unbelievable of late, winning 18 of their last 20, but it's not as good a run as you might think. Only two of those 18 wins have come against teams with a winning record.
Dallas did suffer a big blow with the loss of Dwight Powell, but they have recently got back one of their best players in Kristaps Porzingis and when he's been healthy this has looked like one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
Another big factor here is how well the Mavs play away from home, as they are 13-5-1 (72%) ATS away from home and have covered the line on the road by an average of 7.5 points/game. Mavs are also 8-0 ATS last 8 road games after scoring 105 or more in 3 straight games. Take Dallas!
|01-25-20||Akron v. Ohio +5.5||88-86||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Ohio +5½ -109
Easy play here on the Bobcats as a decently priced home dog against the Zips. While Ohio is just 2-4 in MAC play, this young Bobcats team has been in every game and there's no reason to think they don't have a shot of winning this outright.
I get Akron has won and covered 5 of their last 6 games, but a bunch of those have come against the bottom half of the conference. I just think the Zips could be a little full of themselves right now and also being asked to cover an inflated number.
Bobcats have been outstanding in this spot, covering 9 of their last 10 as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and winning by an average of 2-points/game. Take Ohio!