|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-23-19||Delaware +3.5 v. Drexel||60-68||Loss||-109||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware +
Delaware should have no problem covering this small number at Drexel, as my numbers strongly suggest that the Blue Hens should be the ones favored. I just think we are getting a great number due to the fact that Delaware has gone just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Blue Hens are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8.
Adding even more value here is a great system in play favoring a cover by the Blue Hens. Road teams who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-12 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when playing a marginal losing team. Take Delaware!
|02-23-19||Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame +4||67-59||Loss||-109||9 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Notre Dame +
Virginia Tech continues to get way too much respect. While the Hokies come in ranked No. 20 in the country, this is not a Top 25 team right now. Virginia Tech just isn't the same team without Justin Robinson in the lineup. They were 17-3 with him on the floor and are just 3-3 without him. The even more telling stat is the Hokies 0-4-1 ATS record without Robinson.
Notre Dame isn't a great team by any means, but are certainly a much tougher out on their home floor and have covered 3 of their last 5. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games. Hokies are 0-4 ATS last 4 off a game where they scored 60 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS last 6 when coming into a game having failed to cover 2 straight. Take Notre Dame!
|02-23-19||Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||65-80||Loss||-115||7 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +
The Yellow Jackets snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out in a 73-65 win at home over Pitt. I get that Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the ACC, but their 4-wins in conference are more than what Miami has. There's simply no reason for the Hurricanes to be laying this kind of number against any team in the conference, even at home.
Time after time when Miami has got matched up with a poor team they have been way overvalued and that's evident by the Hurricanes 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Miami is also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 conference home games.
Georgia Tech on the flip side of this is a team that is routinely undervalued on the road. Yellow Jackets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road in games played on Saturday (7-2 ATS last 9 on the road overall). They are also 9-3 ATS 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech!
|02-23-19||Marquette v. Providence +3.5||76-58||Loss||-105||6 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Providence +
Most are going to jump at backing No. 11 Marquette as slim road favorite against unranked Providence, but I'm not falling for the trap. The books are begging you to take the Golden Eagles, knowing full well that this is going to be a very tough spot for Marquette.
The biggest thing is what's on deck, as the Eagles will travel to Villanova on Wednesday. Having already beat the Wildcats, Marquette will be in a position to put a stranglehold on the top spot of the Big East with another victory over Villanova.
That game and the fact that the Golden Eagles defeat Providence by 11 on their home floor earlier this season, will make it hard for Marquette to show up here with a killer instinct. On the flip side of this, this game is one that the Friars will be 100% ready to go for. Not only do they want revenge from the earlier loss, but they haven't forgot about last year's home loss to Marquette, where Markus Howard torched them for 52 points.
Friars are 14-4 ATS last 18 times revenging a loss where they allowed 75+ and a perfect 7-0 ATS at home the last 3 seasons vs top tier teams that are shooting 45% or better and allowing 42% or worse. Take Providence!
|02-22-19||Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder||Top||147-148||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz +
I love the value here with Utah, as I fully expect the Jazz to go into OKC and upset the Thunder. I just think we are going to see Utah really come out in this game with a chip on their shoulder. These two have already played twice this season and the Thunder have won both meetings, so revenge is definitely in play for the Jazz.
I'm not saying OKC isn't going to show up, but there's no doubt this one doesn't mean as much to them. Keep in mind we saw this team come out extremely flat in their final game before the break, losing by 9 and giving up 131 points at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite.
Fading OKC in division games has been a wise move, as the Thunder are just 10-21 (32%) ATS over the last 2 seasons. Jazz are also a dominant 15-5 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg and 13-2 ATS on the road in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ points/game. Take Utah!
|02-21-19||Suns v. Cavs||98-111||Loss||-104||8 h 36 m||Show|
3* NBA Money Line MASSACRE on Suns -
I just really like this spot for Phoenix coming out of the All-Star break against another bad team in the Cavs. I just see the Suns being extremely motivated here to get a win after losing 15 straight going into the break.
Cleveland is a mere 5-13 ATS in their 18 games against a team from the Western Conference this season and a miserable 14-37 ATS in their last 51 home games vs a team with a losing road record. On the flip side of this, the Suns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Take Phoenix!
|02-21-19||Heat +6 v. 76ers||102-106||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Heat +
Philadelphia is getting way too much respect in the first game back from the All-Star break, especially given the 76ers will be playing without All-Star big man Joel Embiid, who is out at least a week with a sore knee. Not only will Philadelphia being playing short-handed, but it wouldn't be a huge shock to see this team come out flat in the first game back.
As for the Heat, they are currently tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. This is a game they should be extremely motivated to play, especially given they will be getting back their star point guard in Goran Dragic. It's also worth noting Miami is a rare team that's actually been better on the road than they have at home. Heat are 15-14 on the road and just 11-16 at home. No surprise they are 18-11 ATS in those 29 road games.
Going back even further, we see that the Heat are 32-19 ATS in their last 51 as a road underdog. Take Miami!
|02-21-19||James Madison +11.5 v. Northeastern||Top||60-76||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +
This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon.
These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games.
Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison!
|02-20-19||North Carolina v. Duke -9||88-72||Loss||-103||13 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Rivalry (UNC/Duke) NO-BRAINER on Duke -
I'm laying the big number here with the Blue Devils at home. I got nothing but respect for Roy Williams and the Tar Heels, but I just think Duke is head and shoulders the best team in the ACC. Usually the Blue Devils would be the public play, but with how much people like UNC and how well they have been playing, the public will be heavy on the Tar Heels.
I just don't think North Carolina has the fire-power to keep this game within single-digits. Duke knows they are a great team and because of that they are going to have some closer than expected games against bad teams. Simply because they don't give their opponent the respect they deserve. That's not going to be the case here. This is every bit a statement game for the Blue Devils as it is the Tar Heels.
Last time out Duke beat NC State 94-78, but failed to cover as a 17-point favorite. That's fine by me, as the Blue Devils are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 off a home win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off a home win where they won but failed to cover. Take Duke!
|02-20-19||Northwestern +7.5 v. Ohio State||49-63||Loss||-110||13 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northwestern +
Ohio State has no business laying this many points against Northwestern. The Wildcats are simply way undervalued right now because they have lost 6 straight. Most people just focus on the wins and losses and simply ignore that they have had some really tough losses during this stretch, including an excruciating 80-79 loss at Iowa and a 3-point defeat the next time out against Rutgers.
I'm not saying the losing streak will come to an end against the Buckeyes, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Northwestern win here. Ohio State is 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games. All 4 of those wins coming against bad team and 2 of those were by 4-points or less. Last time they were at home they lost 63-56 as a 8-point favorite against Illinois and the time before that they barely beat Penn State by 4 as a 7-point favorite.
Buckeyes are just a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games overall, while the Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games when they come in having lost 8 or more of their previous 10 games. Take Northwestern!
|02-19-19||Nebraska +3.5 v. Penn State||71-95||Loss||-110||8 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +
I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Nebraska as a small road dog against Penn State. Most are going to want nothing to do with the Cornhuskers given their 2019 slide, but they finally are playing with some confidence. Nebraska followed up a much-needed win at home over Minnesota with a 9-point victory over Northwestern.
As good as this spot may look For Penn State, were talking about a team that has won a mere 2 Big Ten games all season and lost outright the two previous times they were laying points at home. First it was a 7-point loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite, then it was a 4-point setback as a 6.5-point favorite against Rutgers.
Cornhuskers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference win, 7-1 ATS last 8 off a home win and 9-1 ATS last 10 after a game where they held an opponent to 55 points or less. Take Nebraska!
|02-18-19||TCU v. Oklahoma State +3.5||61-68||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +
I don't think the Horned Frogs should be a favorite on the road against the Cowboys. I get that Oklahoma State is down and come in having lost 5 straight, but for the most part this team has been competitive.
More than anything, TCU isn't a team I would be wanting to lay points with on the road, especially with the Horned Frogs unlikely to have one of their best players in Kouat Noi. Noi is basically tied with Demond Bane as the teams top scorer. Bane averages 14.9 ppg and Noi is at 14.8 ppg. What they really miss with Noi is his 3-point shooting. His 49 made 3-pointers are 10 more than the next best on the team and he's missed 5 games.
The offense looked lost without him in Saturday's 9-point home loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point favorite. Noi is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Ankles typically take at least a week to recover from and if he's not good enough to go Saturday hard to imagine he will be on the floor Monday.
TCU is also just 1-10 ATS last 11 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Oklahoma State!
|02-17-19||Seton Hall v. Creighton -4||81-75||Loss||-105||17 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Creighton -
The Bluejays should have no problem covering this small number at home against Seton Hall. This is one of those quick rematches in conference play, as these two just played at Seton Hall on Feb. 9th. The Pirates squeaked out a 63-58 win at home, which really wasn't a surprise given the home/away splits of these two teams.
This time I expect the roles to be reversed and I think there's a decent chance Creighton turns this into a blowout. Note that the Bluejays only lost by 5 at Seton Hall, despite shooting just 30.3% from the field. Pirates are allowing teams to shoot 46% against them on the road and Creighton is averaging 83.7 ppg on 51.6% shooting at home this season.
Bluejays are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record, 11-2 ATS last 13 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 8-1 ATS last 9 at home off a road loss. Take Creighton!
|02-16-19||Tennessee v. Kentucky -3||69-86||Win||100||21 h 59 m||Show|
4* Tennessee/Kentucky SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky -
I get that the Volunteers are ranked No. 1 in the country, but no way am I passing up on the Wildcats as a small home favorite in this one. There's no debating that Tennessee is one of the top teams not just in the SEC but the entire country. However, I think they are getting a little too much respect right now.
The Vols are a perfect 10-0 in SEC play, but have not faced either of the two top tier teams in LSU and Kentucky. Their road games inside the conference so far have been against Missouri, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-43 in league play.
At the same time, I think this Kentucky team is a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Sure they weren't as good as expected out of the gate, but they have been playing as well as anyone over the last 2 months.
You also can't ignore the fact that the Wildcats are 15-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when matched up against a team that's won 80% or more of their games. Take Kentucky!
|02-16-19||William & Mary -4 v. Elon||Top||84-74||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on William & Mary -
I absolutely love the value here with the Tribe as a small road favorite against the Phoenix. Elon is coming into this game off a 12-point loss at Northeastern, but did manage to cover the massive 17-point spread. That right there is enough reason to back William & Mary, as the Phoenix are a miserable 4-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a game where they covered.
Elon is also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 when listed as an underdog and 2-9 ATS in the month of February. The reason the Phoenix are getting respect from the books is because they beat William & Mary earlier this season. However, that's another big positive for us, as the Tribe are a dominant 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss and 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take William & Mary!
|02-16-19||Fresno State v. New Mexico +2.5||81-73||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
4* Fresno St/N Mexico MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico +
I think the books have made a big mistake making the Lobos a home dog. Fresno State might have the better overall record and a stronger mark in conference play, but New Mexico is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play well.
That's evident by the fact that that the Lobos are a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against conference opponents, which has seen them win by an average of 13.4 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that New Mexico is 8-3 ATS last 11 as a home underdog, which includes a 4-1 ATS mark this season.
It's also worth noting that the Lobos are off a 92-60 win against San Jose State, as they are 8-2 ATS last 10 off a win by 30 or more over a conference rival. Take New Mexico!
|02-16-19||Oklahoma State v. Texas -10.5||57-69||Win||100||14 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Texas -
The Longhorns should have no problem covering this double-digit spread at home against the Cowboys. I'm expecting a very motivated and focused Texas team on Saturday. Not only are the Longhorns going to be ready to go after getting upset on their home floor by Kansas State, but they will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Oklahoma State.
I think if Texas comes into this one with the right mentality, they are going to turn this into a blowout rather quickly. The Cowboys have been on a free-fall. Oklahoma State has lost 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. Their last 3 games they have lost by 18 to Kansas State, 2 to TCU, 12 to Kansas and 28 to Texas Tech.
Prior to the loss to K-State, Texas has really been playing well with 3 double-digit wins in their previous 4 games. The only exception a close road loss at Iowa State where they easily covered as 8-point dogs.
Longhorns are 13-5 ATS under Smart off a home loss and 20-10 ATS under Smart revenging a road loss. Take Texas!
|02-16-19||Clemson +5 v. Louisville||55-56||Win||100||3 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson +
This is a great spot to grab the points and fade Louisville at home. This is one of the more difficult spots you will find a team. The Cardinals come into game off one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the entire season. Louisville had a 23-point over Duke midway through the 2nd half and somehow managed to suffer a 71-69 loss.
That's now 3 losses in the last 4 games for the Cardinals, whose confidence has to be shattered after what happened against the Blue Devils. I not only think they will have a hard time covering the spread here against Clemson, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Tigers won this game outright.
Clemson got off to a slow start in ACC play, going just 1-5 in their first 6 conference games. They have bounced back in a big way, going 4-1 over their last 5 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6. Tigers are now 12-4 ATS last 16 after 15+ games vs a quality opponent that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss against an opponent off a road loss as a favorite are just 29-62 (32%) ATS since 1997. Take Clemson!
|02-15-19||Marist +4 v. Quinnipiac||Top||63-61||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Metro Atlantic Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Marist +
I love the value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Bobcats. Marist comes in off back-to-back wins and have covered 4 of their last 5, including a 78-71 win at Canisius as a 4-point dog.
These two teams played earlier in the season and Quinnipiac won by 14-points. However, Marist shot 54% from the field and were only down 2-points at the half. They basically lost the game at the free throw line, where they went 7 of 14.
Red Foxes are 34-18 ATS last 52 off a home win by 10 or more and the underdog is 8-3 ATS last 11 in the series. Bobcats are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs a marginal losing team (win percent 40% to 49%) and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home vs teams who attempt 21 or more 3-points at least 15+ games into the season. Take Marist!
|02-14-19||Thunder v. Pelicans +5.5||122-131||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Pelicans +
The betting public is all over the Thunder in this one, as they want absolutely nothing to do with New Orleans after watching them score just 88-points in a 30-point defeat at home to the Magic. Especially when they are going up against the dynamic duo of Russell Westbrook and and Paul George.
I know the trade rumors have taken a toll on this team and they clearly seemed uninterested against Orlando, but more times than not teams are going to lay an egg against a bad team like the Magic. At the same time, we almost always see a max effort following an embarrassing loss, especially at home in a nationally televised game like we have here.
Also, you have to factor in just how motivated is OKC for this game. They have been rolling and it's the last stop before the All-Star break. There's no desperate need to win this game and it's going to be hard for them to take New Orleans seriously after that loss to Orlando. My money is on Anthony Davis and the Pelicans showing up for this one and at least keeping it close. Take New Orleans!
|02-14-19||Delaware +2 v. Towson||78-71||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware +
This is a great spot to jump on the Blue Hens as a small road dog against the Tigers. My numbers suggest that Delaware should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Blue Hens are simply being undervalued here because they come in having gone 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6, while Towson is 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
We will definitely take the points and it doesn't hurt that the Underdog has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series. The Blue Hens are also a dominant 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a losing home record, while the Tigers are a miserable 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take Delaware!
|02-14-19||Drexel +1 v. James Madison||Top||69-71||Loss||-105||8 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel +
Love the value here with Drexel as a pick'em on the road against James Madison. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won 73-68 at home. The Dukes were very lucky to lose by just 5. Drexel shot a miserable 20% from 3-point range (3-15).
Expect much better shooting this time around, as the Dragons are coming off a game against Charleston where they shot 54% from the field for the game. Drexel has also covered each of their last 7 games and are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record.
Adding to all this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Dukes. In games involving two marginal losing teams (winning 40% to 49%) the home team is a mere 28-58 ATS if they have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games. That's a 67% system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel!
|02-14-19||Houston v. Connecticut +9.5||71-63||Win||100||1 h 3 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER
No Analysis on late releases
|02-12-19||Spurs v. Grizzlies +4.5||108-107||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA Public ATS SHOCKER on Grizzlies +
A lot of people are going to be quick to jump on the Spurs in this matchup. Memphis just traded away one of their best players in Marc Gasol and have not been playing all that great over the last few months. San Antonio on the other hand is coming off 3 straight losses, which will have people assuming they get back on track with a win here.
The new-look Grizzlies just beat the Pelicans 99-90 as a 1-point home dog and a lot of the new faces made some solid contributions. This game they are expected to add another, as Janus Valanciunas is expected to make his Memphis debut.
As for the Spurs, I think they are really struggling right now because of the recent injury to Derrick White, leaving them extremely thin at the point. This is also San Antonio's 5th straight on the road and final stop before the All-Star break. I think the struggles continue and Memphis wins this outright. Grizzlies have covered 6 of their last 8 and are 4-0 ATS last 4 at home. Take Memphis!
|02-12-19||Marquette v. DePaul +3.5||92-73||Loss||-109||9 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on DePaul +
I really like this spot for the Blue Demons. DePaul comes in off a come-from-behind 74-62 win at Xavier as a 4-point dog, giving them back-to-back wins since a hard fought loss at home to Villanova.
Speaking of Villanova, Marquette just handed the Wildcats their first loss in conference play this past Saturday in a thrilling 66-65 win at home. That was hands down the biggest game of the season for the Golden Eagles and that makes this game against DePaul a huge letdown spot, especially since Marquette already beat the Blue Demons by double-digits earlier this season.
Road favorites who are a top level team (won 80% or more) that are coming off a home win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 71-117 ATS in their next game if facing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). That's a 62% long-term trend that dates back to 1997 in favor of the Blue Demons. Take DePaul!
|02-12-19||Purdue v. Maryland +2.5||56-70||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Maryland +
This is the ideal spot to fade the Boilermakers. Purdue comes into this game having won 8 straight and are simply overvalued because of it. No way should Maryland be a dog on their home floor. Note that 5 of the Boilermakers 8 wins during this run have come at home and two of their road wins were against Penn St and Ohio St.
Maryland hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play, as they come in a perfect 5-0. They are just 2-3 in their last 5, but two of those losses came on the road against Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Terps rebounded from the loss to the Badgers with 60-45 thrashing of the Cornhuskers in Nebraska last time out.
No one expected Maryland to be as good as they are, which is why they are showing such great value against a team like Purdue. Keep in mind these two teams already played once this season and the Terps narrowly loss 62-60 on the Boilermakers home court.
In the win over Nebraska the Terps held the Cornhuskers to just 21.1% shooting. Maryland is 32-13 ATS last 45 at home after holding a team to 33% or worse shooting. Purdue is also 23-42 ATS last 65 on the road after two straight games as a home favorite. Terps have also covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Take Maryland!
|02-11-19||Kansas v. TCU -2.5||82-77||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
4* TCU/Kansas Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU -
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Horned Frogs at home against the Jayhawks. Kansas is a team that gets all kinds of love, which is why they are still sitting at No. 13 in the country, despite the fact that they are just 7-4 in the Big 12 and have lost some big pieces to injury, including a season-ending injury to big man Udoka Azubiuke.
They also are expected to be without second-leading scorer Lagerlad Vick, while Marcus Garrett is questionable after missing the last 3. Kansas has played 7 true road games and are 1-6 in those contests. TCU is 11-1 at home this season and are a perfect 4-0 at home. Horned Frogs also come in off an impressive 9-point win at ISU as a 9.5-point dog. Take TCU!
|02-11-19||Clippers v. Wolves -4.5||Top||120-130||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves -
I really like this spot for Minnesota as a small home favorite. This has to feel like a must-win for the Timberwolves, who have lost 4 straight and are now 5-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. The team sitting in 8th is the Clippers, which should only add that much more motivation here.
As for LAC, they made it clear they are more focused on the future than the present with the deals they made at the trade deadline. I get they come in off a 123-112 upset win at Boston as a 11.5-point dog, but they trailed by 28 (trailed 43-20 after 1st quarter) and benefited from the Celtics losing All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving to injury in the 2nd quarter. Each of their last 3 wins have come with them trailing by at least 20. They followed up each of the last two rallies with losses by 19 or more.
Part of Minnesota's struggles is they have had their top 3 point guards out of the lineup. Jeff Teague is back and should make a bigger contribution in his second game back and there's a chance Derrick Rose returns after practicing on Sunday. Take Minnesota!
|02-10-19||Cincinnati v. Houston -3.5||58-65||Win||100||5 h 13 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Houston -
Too much value here with Houston laying such a short number at home. The Cougars are a perfect 16-0 at home this season and are riding a massive 31-game home winning streak overall. Houston is outscoring opponents 77.4 to 59.9 on their home floor.
Cincinnati is a quality team, but they are simply getting way to much respect from the books here because they come in having won 8 straight and gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Cougars are 42-22 ATS last 64 games at home as a favorite of 6 or less, 20-7-1 ATS last 28 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Houston!
|02-10-19||Lakers +6.5 v. 76ers||120-143||Loss||-105||5 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Lakers +
This is just too many points to pass up with the Lakers. Last time out Los Angeles rallied from a double-digit deficit at Boston in a thrilling 129-128 win. That's the kind of win that they can not only build on, but I think it really helps them get over all the trade rumors they had to deal with over the previous week.
Philadelphia looked impressive in their first game with Tobais Harris, taking down the Nuggets 117-110 at home, but I think they are way overvalued here. That was a short-handed Denver team and they let the Nuggets shoot 49% from the field. Defense has really slipped for the 76ers of late.
Lakers are 13-4 ATS last 17 after playing 3 straight on the road and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after allowing 120+ points in their previous game. Philadelphia is 2-11 ATS last 13 after playing 2 straight at home. Take Los Angeles!
|02-09-19||Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5||Top||70-63||Loss||-113||8 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -
Love the value here with Baylor at basically a pick'em on their home floor. The Bears come in off a 12-point loss at Texas, but played well enough to win, the Longhorns simply couldn't miss (shot 55%).
Baylor had won and covered 6 straight prior to that loss and I'm confident they return back to form. They have won 3 straight at home and are 7-1 ATS over their 6-3 start to Big 12 play. K-State has been playing well, but this is a big letdown spot for the Wildcats coming off a huge win at Kansas.
Bears are 7-1 ATS lat 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog, 7-0 ATS last 7 after covering 4 of their last 5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Take Baylor!
|02-09-19||Duke v. Virginia -1||81-71||Loss||-109||8 h 15 m||Show|
4* Duke/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -
I just can't pass up a play on Virginia at basically a pick'em on their home court against Duke. The Cavaliers only loss this season was a mere 2-point loss at Duke back on Jan. 19th. You can bet that Virginia has had this one circled since that loss. I expect the very best the Cavs have to offer here.
As for Duke, we all know how good they are, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here on the road in one of the hardest places in the country to get a win. Note that while the Blue Devils are 4-0 on the road in ACC play, those 4 have come against Wake Forest, Florida State, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. The only one of those teams with more than 2 conference wins is FSU and Duke only won by 2 at the Seminoles. Take Virginia!
|02-07-19||Spurs +6 v. Blazers||118-127||Loss||-105||11 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Spurs +
I think this is the perfect time to grab the points with San Antonio. The Spurs come into this one off a couple of ugly losses. First it was 15-point loss at Sacramento on Monday and then last night they got rolled 141-102 at Golden State.
The big thing to keep in mind with the loss to the Warriors is the Spurs punted that one from the start, resting their two best players in DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The only guy to play more than 26 minutes against Golden State was reserve Dante Cunningham and he rarely plays (played 24 minutes in previous 5 games).
Blazers have been playing a lot of high scoring games of late and the OVER has cashed in each of their last 5. That's a good thing for us, as Portland is a mere 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after 5 straight overs. Spurs are also a perfect 8-0 ATS this season when coming off back-to-back losses. Take San Antonio!
|02-07-19||South Florida v. SMU -5||Top||67-66||Loss||-104||10 h 58 m||Show|
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU -
This line really says it all. USF comes in having won 3 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, while SMU enters having lost their last 2 and are just 1-4 in their last 5. You wouldn't expect the Bulls to be a 5-point dog here, but that just tells you how much the books not only like the Mustangs to win but to do so rather easily.
The biggest thing to keep in mind with SMU's 1-4 stretch over their last 5 is just how tough the schedule has been. Out of the 4 losses, 3 were on the road against the likes of Cincinnati, Wichita State and Memphis. The only loss at home was to arguably the best team in the league in Houston.
In their other 3 conference home games this season they have beat Tulane by 10, Tulsa by 20 and East Carolina by 28. USF's only road win in the AAC is against Tulane and they are the only team in the conference that has yet to win a game (just 4-17 overall).
Bulls are 14-28 ATS last 42 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6.5 points, while the Mustangs are 23-12 ATS last 35 as a home favorite and 12-3 ATS last 15 at home when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take SMU!
|02-07-19||Iowa v. Indiana -2||77-72||Loss||-115||10 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana -
Both of these teams are coming off big time wins the last time they took the court. Iowa defeated Michigan 74-59 as a 5.5-point home dog, while Indiana won 79-75 at Michigan State as a 14-point dog. I'm just a lot more confident with the Hoosiers carrying over that momentum on their home floor.
Iowa has not been a great road team and I get that Indiana had lost 7 straight prior to that win over the Spartans, but there's reason to believe they can keep it going. They got two key pieces back from injury in De'Ron Davis and Devonte Green. Juwan Morgan did go down with a shoulder injury against Michigan State, but he was back practicing on Monday and is listed as probable.
It's worth noting that Indiana comes in shooting 47.4% from the field on the season (51.9% at home), as Iowa is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 on the road against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Hawkeyes are also 6-16 ATS last 22 as a road dog and 3-12 ATS last 15 on the road overall. Take Indiana!
|02-06-19||LSU v. Mississippi State -2.5||92-88||Loss||-110||8 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Mississippi St -
LSU had started out 7-0 in SEC play before losing a heartbreaker at home 90-89 to Arkansas as a 10-point favorite. Most will just assume the Tigers will return right back to their winning ways, but I think they struggle to bounce back against a very good Mississippi State team.
The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in SEC play, but 3 of those 4 losses came by 5-points or less. They are also a dominant 11-1 at home this season, where they are scoring 83.9 ppg and shooting a ridiculous 50.4% from the field.
Tigers are a mere 16-31 ATS last 47 off an upset loss to a conference opponent. Bulldogs are 34-17 ATS last 51 at home with a line of +3 to -3 and 14-3 ATS last 17 at home after playing their previous game as an underdog. Take Mississippi State -2.5!
|02-05-19||Kansas v. Kansas State -2.5||67-74||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Kansas State -
Love the value here with the Wildcats as a short home favorite against in-state rival Kansas. The Jayhawks are ranked No. 13 and fresh off a big home win against Texas Tech, but they have had their struggles on the road in true road games. Kansas is 1-5 when visiting an opposing teams arena, including a 1-3 mark in the Big 12.
Kansas State comes into this one having won 6 of their last 7 and the only loss was out of conference and on the road. The Wildcats might not be ranked, but they are definitely playing like a Top 25 team and let's not forget this was a team that going into the season was expected to compete for the Big 12 title.
K-State is 10-1 at home this season. They have covered 5 straight against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, while KU is a mere 3-8 ATS last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Kansas State!
|02-05-19||Clippers v. Hornets -3.5||117-115||Loss||-109||8 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hornets -
This is just too good a price to pass up on Charlotte. The Hornets might be a .500 team at 26-26, but they are 19-8 at home and come in off back-to-back wins. Charlotte is expected to get back Cody Zeller from injury and it's no secret that they are a much better team when he's on the floor.
Not only is Charlotte playing well and got a big advantage with the game at home, this is a good spot to go against the Clippers. LAC has really been on a downward spiral for a while now and they will be playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. They somehow managed to rally from 25 down in a win over Detroit on Saturday, but lost by 18 as a 9-point dog at Toronto on Sunday.
Clippers are just 3-9 ATS last 12 off a SU loss by more than 10-points, while the Hornets are a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference and 7-3 ATS last 10 overall. Take Charlotte!
|02-04-19||Nuggets v. Pistons +4.5||Top||103-129||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons +
Last time out the Pistons blew a 25-point lead in a 10 point home loss to the Clippers. Blake Griffin called it the worst loss of the year. My money is on Detroit using that defeat as motivation against a Denver team that is slowly getting a bigger and bigger target on their back.
Nuggets have 6 straight and are tied with Golden State for the best record in the West. The thing is they have been playing short-handed. Garry Harris is out with a groin injury and Jamal Murray has missed the last 5 games with a bad ankle.
I just think Denver has to be running on fumes right now and it would be really easy for them to look past a Pistons team that has won a mere 9-games since upsetting the Warriors at home back on Dec. 1st.
Nuggets are also not nearly the same team on the road, where they have failed to cover 6 of their last 8 against teams with a winning home record. Denver is also a mere 15-28 last 43 road games off a win. Take Detroit!
|02-04-19||Marist +4.5 v. Canisius||78-71||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Marist +
Easy play on the Red Foxes for me. Canisius is getting way too much respect on their home floor. The Golden Griffins are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS at home this season. Marist is just 2-3 in their last 5 games, but all 3 losses have come by 5-points or less.
The Red Foxes won't be overlooking Canisius, as they will be out to get revenge from a 3-point home loss back in early January. Marist has been very profitable against bad teams like the Golden Griffins on the road. The Red Foxes are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Canisius is also 2-9 ATS last 11 at home and 1-6 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Marist!
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||49 h 24 m||Show|
5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams +
I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls.
Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald.
Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted.
I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles!
|02-03-19||Quinnipiac +1 v. Niagara||84-73||Win||100||4 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Quinnipiac +
Easy play here for me with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Quinnipiac will be out for revenge after a crushing 3-point loss at home to Niagara less than a month ago. Bobcats only lost by 3 despite the Purple Eagles shooting 52% from the field.
Considering Niagara is only shooting 41.7% for the season and are allowing teams to shoot 47% against them at home, we can be confident there won't be a repeat of the first meeting. Quinnipiac comes in off a close loss at Canisius, which is a positive here, as they are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss. Bobcats are also 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road and 8-1 ATS last 9 road games after playing their previous game on the road. Take Quinnipiac!
|02-02-19||Pepperdine +2 v. Pacific||Top||59-66||Loss||-109||13 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pepperdine +
Books have the wrong team favored in this one. Pepperdine should have zero problem leaving Pacific with a win Saturday night. The Waves just absolutely rolled Portland 83-58 as a mere 5-point road favorite last time out. That's 3 straight covers, giving them a 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games.
Clearly the books are not giving Pepperdine the respect they deserve. Pacific is a mere 2-6 SU in their last 8 and have failed to cover 3 straight. Note that the two wins for the Tigers are both against Portland and neither came easy. For those that don't know, Portland is the worst team in the WCC (currently 0-8 in conference play). Take Pepperdine!
|02-02-19||Cal Poly +8.5 v. CS-Northridge||65-83||Loss||-109||13 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Poly +
Mustangs are being way undervalued here by the books, as Cal Poly should have no problem covering this near double-digit spread on the road against CS Northridge. Not the first time the Matadors have been overvalued at home. Northridge is a mere 5-16 ATS last 21 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and are 6-20 ATS last 26 at home when coming off a game where they scored 25 or fewer points in the 1st half
Great system in play favoring the Mustangs. Road underdogs who have only won between 20% to 40% of their games and are off a conference win as a underdog of 6-points or less are 113-63 (64%) ATS when facing a team with a losing record over the last 5 seasons. Take Cal Poly!
|02-02-19||Portland +8.5 v. Santa Clara||63-69||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Portland +
Great value here with the Pilots as a road dog against Santa Clara. Portland has been absolutely money in this spot. The Pilots come in off a 83-58 loss at home to Pepperdine on Thursday. Portland is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games overall and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when playing on 1 or fewer days of rest.
There's a great system in play favoring the Pilots. Underdogs coming off a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field are 80-36 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in a matchup that features two average defense teams (allowing 42.5% to 45%). Take Portland!
|02-02-19||St. Peter's v. Manhattan||50-64||Loss||-105||10 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Money Line PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Peter's pk
Really like the Peacocks in this spot. These two teams played earlier this season and the Jaspers squeaked out a 58-56 win, despite shooting 48% from the field and holding St. Peter's to 33.3%. The gap won't be that big the second time around and seeing how Manhattan is shooting 39.6% on the season, I think we could see the percentages flip-flop.
Peacocks have covered 10 of their last 13 in conference play and are 8-1 when revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Manhattan comes in off a win as a dog against Fairfield, but that's actually a positive for us. Jaspers are 3-12 last 15 off a home win and 1-6 last 7 off an upset win as a dog. Take St. Peter's!
|02-02-19||Delaware +5 v. William & Mary||63-84||Loss||-104||7 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Small Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Delaware +
William & Mary continues to get a ton of unwarranted respect from the books. The Tribe are a miserable 5-14 ATS on the season and come into this one having not covered a spread in 6 straight games.
While William & Mary is a team you want to fade, the Blue Hens are the team you want to be backing in this spot. Delaware is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games with a high total between 140-149.5 and a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a road underdog of 6-points or less.
These two teams also played earlier this season with the Blue Hens taking home the victory. Home teams revenging a same season loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are just 42-77 (35.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Delaware!
|02-01-19||Thunder -4.5 v. Heat||118-102||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -
I just can't pass up backing OKC at this price. The Thunder come in having won 6 straight and have shown no signs of slowing down. Paul George has been playing at an MVP-type level and now Russell Westbrook is rounding into form. Westbrook has recorded 4 straight triple-doubles and much like James Harden has done with the Rockets, Westbrook can go off and put this team on his back for an extended stretch.
Offensively the Thunder have been playing really well. They have scored at least 115 points in 10 straight games. I just don't see the Heat being able to keep pace. Miami's scored 100 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. The Heat have also failed more times than not against the top tier teams, as they are 10-13 vs a team with a winning record.
OKC is playing on 2 days rest and are 7-1 ATS in this spot. They are also 8-1 ATS last 9 after scoring 125+ points in their previous game and a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team from the east. Take Oklahoma City!
|02-01-19||Princeton -1.5 v. Columbia||55-43||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Princeton -
The Tigers should have no problem cashing in a win and cover here as a slim road favorite against the Lions. Princeton comes into this game rolling. The Tigers have won 5 straight and covered each of their last 3 games with a line available to bet.
As for Columbia they come in off a win at home over Cornell as a favorite, but failed to cover the spread. The Lions are just 1-3 ATS last 4 lined games and have not been good in this spot. Columbia is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 1-4 ATS last 5 in league play. Tigers are 6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 in league play. Take Princeton!
|02-01-19||Quinnipiac +3.5 v. Canisius||Top||70-75||Loss||-106||9 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Quinnipiac +
Love the value here with the Bobcats getting points against the Golden Griffins. Canisius is getting way too much love here at home, as they have shown to have little to no home court advantage. The Golden Griffins are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in home lined games this season.
Another big reason I like Quinnipiac here is they will extra motivated to get revenge from a crushing 2-point loss at home to Canisius earlier this season. This is definitely the time to jump on the Bobcats, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win, 7-0 ATS last 7 road games with a total of 140 to 149.5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Take Quinnipiac!
|02-01-19||Brown -2 v. Dartmouth||Top||60-58||Push||0||9 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown -
Easy play here on the Bears as a slim road favorite at Dartmouth Friday night. Brown is simply the better team, but the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses to Yale and the Big Green split their two games against Harvard, we are getting a great price on them. Yale looks like the team to beat in the Ivy League so far and the Bears played them tough in both meetings, losing by just 3 at home and by 8 on the road.
Dartmouth had the big upset over Harvard at home, but let's not forget the Big Green were the consensus pick to finish last in the Ivy League and this is a spot they have struggled in. Dartmouth is a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against a top tier team that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Bears are also a strong 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road. Take Brown!
|01-31-19||Pacific +6 v. Loyola Marymount||Top||42-60||Loss||-110||12 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacific +
The Tigers should have zero problem covering here at Loyola-Marymount. The overall records make it look like the Lions are the far superior team, but I think this is a very evenly matched game. Pacific is 2-5 and getting outscored by 6.3 ppg in conference play. Loyola-Marymount is only 3-4 and are getting outscored by 4.7 ppg.
The Tigers come into this game off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread, but that's actually a positive for us. Pacific is 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons after failing to cover two straight. The Tigers are are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win. Lions are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Take Pacific!
|01-31-19||Cal Poly +7 v. UC Riverside||71-45||Win||100||12 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cal Poly +
The Mustangs are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Highlanders. Cal Poly is way undervalued right now having lost 5 straight and failed to cover 4 in a row. On the flip side of this, you got UC Riverside having covered 4 of their last 5.
Fading the Highlanders in this spot has been a wise investment, as they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games vs a team with a losing road record.
It's also worth noting that Riverside beat Cal Poly earlier this season, which sets up the Mustangs in a very profitable spot. Road underdogs who are off back-to-back conference losses by 10 or more and revenging a loss as a favorite are 41-15 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Cal Poly!
|01-31-19||Drexel +5 v. William & Mary||Top||69-75||Loss||-110||9 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel +
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Dragons as a road dog. Drexel hosted William & Mary earlier this season and got embarrassed 84-66. That's not a concern here, as the Dragons are a remarkable 25-9 ATS in their last 34 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more.
The Tribe are also a team that you want to fade at home against bad teams. William & Mary are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games in the month of January and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. The Tribe have also failed to cover 5 straight, while the Dragons are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Drexel!
|01-30-19||CS-Northridge +7.5 v. CS-Fullerton||Top||71-78||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge +
The Matadors will have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog against the Titans. These two teams have pretty much identical records, but we are seeing the line heavily shaded in favor of Cal State Fullerton because they come in having won 4 straight and covered 3 in a row.
I just think this line should be closer to 3, giving us more than 4-points in value on a team that can win this game outright. Adding to this, we see that the Matadors are a dominant 9-1 ATS last 10 road games in the month of January and are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a SU win. Take CS-Northridge!
|01-30-19||Nuggets -8 v. Pelicans||105-99||Loss||-100||10 h 23 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Nuggets -
I got no problem laying the points here with Denver on the road against the Pelicans. New Orleans just won outright as a double-digit dog at Houston last night, which is going to have a lot of people looking to take them again here as a near double-digit dog at home.
I'm not about to give New Orleans credit for that win. That was simply the Rockets not showing up to play. I'm confident having just seen the Pelicans beat Houston, Denver won't make the same mistake. The Nuggets come in having won 3 straight and it's really not asking a lot for them to win here by 10 or more, especially with the Pelicans playing on 0 days rest. Take Denver!
|01-29-19||Bulls +7 v. Nets||117-122||Win||100||10 h 55 m||Show|
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls +
Really like the value here with Chicago as a big road dog against the Nets. The Bulls come in having lost 3 straight and are a mere 1-13 in their last 14 overall. No one wants anything to do with this team and as a result the books are going to inflate the lines on the other side.
I feel like that's exactly what has happened here. Brooklyn is the bette team, but this is not a good spot for the Nets. They will be on no rest after playing a game at Boston last night. Brooklyn has no one to blame but themselves, as they were a miserable 39-103 (37.9%) from the field. That's now back-to-back games where they have shot 40% or worse.
I just think it's going to be really hard for the Nets to bring the kind of energy and effort needed to win here going away. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bulls came away with a rare win. Take Chicago!
|01-28-19||Hawks +6 v. Clippers||123-118||Win||100||13 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Hawks +
This might seem like a low number for Atlanta to be catching on the road against a Clippers team that comes in having won and covered 3 straight. However, I actually think there's value with the Hawks at this price.
It all comes down to scheduling. The Clippers have t be exhausted right now. Los Angeles is on no rest after hosting the Kings yesterday and this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. You also have a massive game on deck against the Lakers, which might just mark the return of LeBron James from injury. Either way, the Hawks are not a team to get excited about playing and with no extra motivation for the Clippers, this will be a tough one for them to get up for.
I think it not only puts the Hawks in a great spot to cover, but gives them an outside shot at leaving town with a win. Take Atlanta!
|01-27-19||Marist +10.5 v. Rider||85-86||Win||100||5 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Marist +
Marist should have no problem here covering as a double-digit road dog against the Broncs. Rider is simply overvalued right now. You can easily see that by looking at their last 6 games. The Broncs are 5-1 SU, yet are 2-4 ATS. They just had a 5-game winning streak snapped with a 6-point loss at Iona, where they were favored by 2.5.
Marist is in a prime bounce back spot after an ugly 92-78 home loss to Quinnipiac and the Red Foxes are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Rider is also a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won less than 40% of their games and 2-6 ATS last 8 games on their home floor. Take Marist!
|01-27-19||Iona +1 v. Fairfield||68-80||Loss||-106||4 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iona +
Easy play here on the Gaels at a pick'em against the Stags. Iona comes in off a 77-71 win and cover as a 2.5-point home dog against Rider and are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall. Gaels are also now 5-2 in conference play and that includes a 94-87 win at home over Fairfield.
I just don't think the Stags have the talent to win this contest. Fairfield comes in having lost 4 straight. Each of the last two defeats coming at home. First it was a 5-point loss as a 3-point favorite to Canisius. Then it was a 9-point loss as a 2-point favorite against Siena, where the Stags managed just 48 points.
Fairfield is 3-11 ATS last 14 off a conference loss, 2-6-1 ATS last 9 at home and a miserable 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Iona!
|01-26-19||San Francisco -2.5 v. San Diego||Top||63-67||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco -
Amazing value here with the Dons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Toreros. San Francisco comes in having won 3 straight. The last two in blowout fashion, beating BYU by 19 and Portland by 22. Dons are 14-3 ATS last 17 when off a conference win by 20 or more.
There's also a big time system in play favoring the Dons to cover. Road favorites who are a strong offensive team (74-78 ppg) against a sub-par defensive team (67-74 ppg) are 53-22 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Take San Francisco!
|01-26-19||Pacers -4.5 v. Grizzlies||103-106||Loss||-109||10 h 12 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pacers -
I just think this is too good a price to pass up on the Pacers. All the Indiana players are hearing right now is how their season is over after losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury. I think we are going to see a very motivated Pacers team take the floor tonight and let's not forget this team played well without Oladipo earlier in the season.
You also have to factor in who they are playing. Memphis has lost 8 straight and are just 1-14 in their last 15 games overall. It's not like they are losing and covering the spread. The Grizzlies are just 3-19 ATS in their last 22. This team isn't having fun and really don't want to be playing. I think the injury to Oladipo and the game being in Memphis has this line a lot lower than it should be. Take Indiana!
|01-26-19||Cornell +4 v. Columbia||Top||70-73||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Cornell +
Love the value here with Cornell getting this many points. These two teams played each other last time out and the Big Red pulled out a 60-59 win at home. A pretty impressive victory given they were so sloppy with the ball. Cornell had 20 turnovers, wich was their most in a game since early December.
I think they clean up those mistakes and not only cover the spread, but win this game outright. Columbia is just 2-10 ATS last 12 at home when revenging a loss of 3-points or less.
Great system favoring a play on the Big Red. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are coming off a home win by 3-points or less and have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 161-97 (62%) ATS since 1997. Take Cornell!
|01-26-19||Portland +10 v. Pacific||70-74||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Portland +
Great value here with the Pilots as a near double-digit dog at Pacific. For starters, this series has been owned by the road team, as the home team has failed to cover 5 straight. Portland is also out for revenge here, as they lost 65-57 at home back on 1/12. Good news is the Pilots are 7-0 ATS last 3 seasons in road games when revenging a same season loss.
We also got two big time systems in play here. One favoring a fade of the Tigers and the other a play on the Pilots. First, home favorites of 10 or more off 4 straight games where both teams scored 70+ points are a mere 18-46 (22.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Second, Underdog of 10 to 19.5 points that have lost 3 straight by 15 or more points are 53-25 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Portland!
|01-26-19||Drexel +4.5 v. Delaware||Top||75-76||Win||100||4 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel +
Too much value to pass up with the Dragons catching this many points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel comes in off back-to-back wins where they covered the spread and are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4.
Delaware has dropped 2 of their last 3, including a loss at home to Towson as a similarly priced 5.5-point favorite. Dragons have covered 7 of their last 10 in conference play and Drexel head coach Zach Spiker is 11-2 in road games when his team is coming off a home win. Take Drexel!
|01-25-19||Brown +8.5 v. Yale||Top||71-79||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown +
The Bears should have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog at Yale. The Bulldogs are getting way too much respect here because they are a perfect 5-0 at home, enter on a 7-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS last 4.
Just so happens these two teams just played each other in their last game on Saturday. Yale barely snuck out a 70-67 win. It's really tough to beat the same team twice in a short window like this, especially when you have a quality team like Brown. I actually think the Bears have a really good shot at winning this game outright.
Either way they are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 road games off a home loss, 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after a game where they failed to cover and 5-0 last 5 on the road overall. Take Brown!
|01-25-19||Rider -2.5 v. Iona||71-77||Loss||-106||9 h 17 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rider -
Big time value here with the Broncs as a small road favorite against the Gaels. Rider was the preseason favorite to win the MAAC and have lived up to the hype so far.
The Broncs are a perfect 5-0 in league play, which includes a 3-0 conference road record. Rider won by 20 at Niagara as a 4.5-point favorite, by 9 at Canisius as a 2-point favorite. I expect a similar type of outcome here against Iona.
Gaels are a miserable 4-11 ATS last 15 games, 2-8 ATS last 10 after giving up 80+ points in their previous game and 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after playing a game as a road favorite. Take Rider!
|01-24-19||Loyola Marymount +5.5 v. San Diego||Top||58-71||Loss||-100||14 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAAB West Coast (WCC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola Marymount +
I like the Lions to win this game outright, making them an easy play here as a decently priced dog. San Diego has been overvalued here of late, as the Toreros are just 2-5 ATS last 7. Last time out they got rolled by 17 points at St Mary's. They were also upset in their most recent home game, losing 76-71 to Pepperdine as a 8-point favorite.
Loyola-Marymount comes in off a win over Pepperdine at home, but did fail to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. That's okay, as the Lions have cashed 8 of their last 10 games when coming off a ATS loss. Lions are also 8-3 ATS last 11 road games, 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|01-24-19||Siena +2.5 v. Fairfield||57-48||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Siena +
The Saints should have no problem cashing in a win here at Fairfield. Siena comes in off a win and cover at home against Niagara and won their last road game at Marist as a 3-point dog.
The Stags on the other hand have lost 3 straight and really don't have much of a home court edge. We saw that in their last game, which they lost at home 73-68 as a 3-point favorite.
Fairfield is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 home games and are 0-4 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Siena!
|01-23-19||UC Riverside +2.5 v. Cal Poly||74-51||Win||100||13 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Riverside +
Great spot to back the Highlanders as a small dog against the Mustangs. UC-Riverside has covered 9 of their last 11 conference road games and are 9-1 ATS last 10 road games in the month of January.
While neither of these teams have great records, the Highlanders are without a doubt the better team. Cal Poly is 0-3 ATS at home this season, they are 0-7 ATS last 10 off a conference loss by 10 or more, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 with a line of +3 to -3 and 0-8 ATS the last 2 seasons after 15 games when playing a team with a winning record. Take UC-Riverside!
|01-22-19||St. Peter's +3.5 v. Niagara||Top||74-72||Win||100||9 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on St. Peter's +
Love the Peacocks here. St. Peter's should have no problem winning this game, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point dog. The Purple Eagles should not be favored. These two teams have played 4 common opponents.
While the Peacocks are just 1-3, Niagara is 0-4. The defensive numbers really stand out, as St Peters only gave up 58.5 ppg in these 4, while the Purple Eagles are allowing 77 ppg.
The Peacocks have gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning record. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 in conference play and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a game where they failed to cover.
Niagara has failed to cover 5 of their last 7, are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 home games on Tuesday night and 4-18 ATS last 22 at home after playing 5 straight games as an underdog. Take St. Peter's!
|01-21-19||Marist -1 v. Manhattan||62-46||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Marist -
The Red Foxes should be a bigger favorite here given what we saw when these two teams met earlier this month. Marist crushed Manhattan 78-63. The Red Foxes shot 56% from the field, while their defense limited the Jaspers to a mere 40% from the field.
I just don't think Manhattan has a big enough home court edge to close the gap. In fact, the Jaspers have just 1 win on their home floor this season. They just played 4 straight on the road and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 after playing 3 or more on the road. Red Foxes are also 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Take Marist!
|01-21-19||Thunder v. Knicks +9.5||127-109||Loss||-115||4 h 49 m||Show|
3* NBA Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Knicks +
I like the value here with New York in this one. There's no question that Oklahoma City is the more talented team, but the Thunder are not playing well as a team. Sure they come in off a 2-point win at Philadelphia, but they were just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games, which includes losses to both the Hawks and Lakers.
Knicks are clearly aren't interested in winning a lot of games this season. New York comes in having lost 5 straight and are a mere 1-13 in their last 14 overall. These are the teams the public love to fade no matter who they are playing. Book have no choice but to inflate the line on the other side. The Knicks have covered 5 of the last 7 as a result and are also an impressive 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take New York!
|01-19-19||CS-Fullerton +3 v. Long Beach State||92-90||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Fullerton +
This is going to look like an easy play on Long Beach State, as they come in 6-1 at home, while CS-Fullerton is a mere 1-10 on the road. The books have set the trap. The smart money here is going to be on the Titans.
The 49ers have been getting all the calls the last couple of games, which is worth noting. Long Beach State is a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 at home after back-to-back games where they attempted 10+ more free throws than their opponents. Titans are also a strong 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take CS-Fullerton!
|01-19-19||Towson +6 v. Delaware||Top||64-63||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson +
Love the value here with the Tigers at this price. Towson comes in having lost 6 straight and failed to cover the spread in all 6. It's been some bad luck for the Tigers, as all 6 losses have been respectable. The most they lost by in this stretch is 12-points.
Delaware is coming in off a win and cover at home against James Madison. They have struggled i this spot historically, going just 39-61 ATS at home at a cover. I think the Blue Hens will really struggle to give the Tigers the respect they deserve. Wouldn't be shocked at all if Towson won this game.
Adding to this is a big time system in play on the Tigers. Underdogs who are coming off a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field are 78-34 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games where you have two average defensive teams that are allowing teams to shoot 42.5%-45%. Take Towson +6!
|01-19-19||Thunder +2 v. 76ers||117-115||Win||100||6 h 16 m||Show|
3* NBA Afternoon Bookie DESTROYER on Thunder +
If this isn't the definition of a public trap, I don't know what is. The 76ers come in having won 3 straight. The last two being a 120-96 win at Indiana and a 149-107 thrashing of the Timberwolves at home. The Thunder come in off a home loss to the Lakers and are a mere 1-5 in their last 6.
The public won't be able to bet the 76ers fast enough, which is why I'm jumping on OKC in this one. Good chances Embiid doesn't play, as he's dealing with a bad back. I think not having him against this Thunder team would be a big blow, but either way I think OKC gets back on track. Take Oklahoma City!
|01-19-19||James Madison +4 v. Drexel||68-73||Loss||-100||5 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on James Madison +
Love the value here with the Dukes getting points at Drexel. The Dragons are coming in off a home win against Towson, where they held the Tigers to just 32.4% shooting. That's a rare good defensive effort for Drexel. The Dragons had allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to shoot 48% or better.
All of this sets up a great system to fade Drexel in this spot. Home favorites that are allowing teams to shoot 45% or better against them on the season are a mere 38-75 (33.6%) ATS after a game where they held a team to 33% or worse. Take James Madison!
|01-18-19||Spurs v. Wolves -1||116-113||Loss||-103||12 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wolves -
This is just too good a price to pass up on with Minnesota at basically a pick'em at home. The Spurs have been playing better of late and come in off a win at Dallas, but are just 8-14 away from home this season. Timberwolves are 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS at home compared to 6-16 SU and 9-13 ATS on the road.
Big time bounce back spot for Minnesota, who just got annihilated in a 149-107 loss at Philadelphia last time out. On top of that, the Timberwolves have some serious revenge in play, as they lost 124-98 at San Antonio in the most recent meeting.
Wolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games in the month of January and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games after a combined score of 215 or more in 2 straight games. Take Minnesota!
|01-18-19||Marist +7 v. Iona||Top||77-90||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Marist +
Big time value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Gaels. Marist is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their last 6. Iona is also overvalued having won 3 of 5. Gaels covered last time out and are just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 after covering their previous game.
Marist has had no problem cashing in a winning ticket when they visit Iona, as they are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 trips to face the Gaels.
It's also worth pointing out that Iona comes into this game off a 88-70 road win at Canisius, which puts the Gaels into a very profitable system to fade. Favorites on Friday nights that are coming off an upset win as a road dog are a mere 18-52 (25.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marist!
|01-17-19||UC Riverside +10 v. CS-Fullerton||61-69||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE WEEK on Riverside +
The Highlanders showing big time value here as a double-digit dog at Cal State-Fullerton. Riverside is 0-2 in Big West action, but have covered the spread in both games, including a cover as a double-digit dog at US-Santa Barbara last time out.
Going back to last season the Highlanders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs conference opponents and have gone 3-0-1 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. The Titans have no business laying this many points. Last time out they lost at home by 17 as a mere 3.5-point dog to UC-Irvine. That's after losing by 11 as a 3-point dog at Hawaii. Fullerton is 2-8 ATS last 10 overall, 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 1-6 ATS last 7 off a loss. Take UC-Riverside!
|01-17-19||Nebraska-Omaha -2 v. Western Illinois||80-71||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Omaha -
The Mavericks should have no problem leaving Western Illinois with a win, making them an easy play for me as a small road favorite. Nebraska-Omaha comes in with a respectable 9-8 record and are off to a 3-1 start in league play.
The Mavericks are an offensive force to say the least. Omaha has scored at least 83 points in 7 straight games, eclipsing 90 in each of their last 2. the Leathernecks are giving up 79.6 ppg and allowing teams to shoot 51.1% from the floor in their 1-4 start to conference play. Western Illinois simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep it close. Take Nebraska-Omaha!
|01-17-19||Kings v. Hornets -2||95-114||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Hornets -
Easy play here on Charlotte at basically a pick'em at home. I think we are getting big time value here with the Hornets because of the fact that the Kings come in having won and covered 3 straight, including a win and cover against these very Hornets on their home floor.
Charlotte won at San Antonio, but finished up their 6-game road trip at 2-4. I think whenever a team struggles on a long trip, they end up showing some decent value in their first game back home. Add in the revenge angle here and I not only like the Hornets to cover, but I got them winning this game in a blowout.
Kings are just 1-4 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and Kings head coach Dave Joerger is a mere 44-68 ATS last 112 when working on 2 or more consecutive wins. Take Charlotte!
|01-17-19||James Madison +4.5 v. Delaware||Top||69-76||Loss||-109||7 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +
The Dukes should have no problem covering the small number here at Delaware, as I got them winning this game outright. James Madison comes in off two strong games, as they beat Towson 74-65 as a 4-point favorite and won 69-58 at home against College of Charleston as a 8.5-point dog.
As for the Blue Hens, they just lost at College of Charleston by 13, snapping their 4-game win streak. I look for Delaware to struggle again here, as they are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home after going 4-1 in their previous 5 games.
The Dukes are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a quality team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Take James Madison!
|01-17-19||Towson +4.5 v. Drexel||Top||66-72||Loss||-109||7 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson +
This series has been dominated by the road dog. The road team has covered 8 of the last 12 and the underdog has cashed in 11 of the last 17. Towson is 4-1-1 in their last 6 trips to Drexel. I not only like them to keep it within the number, but I think the Tigers win this game outright.
Thees are two of the worst teams in the Colonial Athletic and there's just not any home court edge for a team like the Dragons. One area where Towson should have a big edge is on the boards. Tigers are outrebounding opponents by an average of 6/game. Dragons are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team that averages +4 or better rebound margin and have lost these game by an average of 10 points. Take Towson!
|01-17-19||Manhattan +6 v. St. Peter's||58-56||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +
We are getting a great price here on the Jaspers in Thursday's road slate at St. Peter's. It's been a rough go for Manhattan, who is just 3-13 on the season and 1-3 in league play, but it's not been a whole lot better for the Peacocks, who have won a mere 5 games.
Road team has had the edge in this series, covering 4 of the last 5 and the Jaspers are a red-hot 6-1 in their last 7 trips to St. Peter's. Last year they won 68-57 as a very similarly priced 5.5-point dog. Take Manhattan!
|01-16-19||Houston v. SMU +1||69-58||Loss||-109||11 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +
Too much value here with the Mustangs to pass up. Houston comes in with a 16-1 record and ranked in the Top 25. They started out the season 10-4 ATS and are simply way overvalued by the books right now. We have seen that inflation cost their backers in each of their 2 games, as they failed to cover in an outright loss at Temple and most recently as a 11-point home favorite against Wichita St (won by 9).
SMU got off to a bit of a slow start, but come in having won 5 of their last 6, including an impressive 20-point win over Tulsa as a 8.5-point favorite last time out. The defense has really picked up for the Mustangs and we know we are getting their best on that side of the ball at home against a big time rival.
Mustangs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 at home after a win and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home off a win by 15 or more points. Take SMU!
|01-16-19||South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -3.5||74-71||Loss||-108||9 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt -
This line tells you all you need to know. Vanderbilt is 0-3 in SEC play and is a 3.5-point favorite over South Carolina, who is 3-0 in conference action. Commodores only home game in SEC play was against Ole Miss, who at the time was playing out of their mind and I think they caught Vandy by surprise.
That won't be the case here, as we know we are going to get the best the Commodores have to offer in this one. Even with that loss at home to the Rebels, Vanderbilt is still 8-2 at home, where they are averaging an impressive 86.1 ppg and shooting 50% from the field.
Gamecocks are a mere 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field and they are 1-4 ATS last 5 trips to face the Commodores. Take Vanderbilt!
|01-15-19||Warriors v. Nuggets +1.5||142-111||Loss||-115||9 h 16 m||Show|
4* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Nuggets +
The betting public will be all over Golden State here, as the Warriors have started to play well and will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Denver. I just don't see that being the case. Like it or not the Nuggets aren't going anywhere this season.
For all the star power that Golden State has, they are still not the same team on the road as they are at home and Denver comes in with a 18-3 record on their home floor and are riding a 12-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center.
Nuggets have covered 17 of their last 22 at home against teams from the Pacific Division and are 12-1 ATS at home this season when coming off a win. Warriors are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs a team from the Western Conference and 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Denver!
|01-15-19||Eastern Michigan v. Akron -6.5||49-51||Loss||-109||7 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Akron -
Great spot to jump on the Zips at home. We can bank on a big time effort here from Akron coming off back-to-back upset losses on the road to Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. They should have no problem covering this number against an Eagles side that has been bad on the road.
Eastern Michigan is a mere 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS away from home. The Zips on the other hand are 7-1 at home this season. The defensive numbers really stand out here with the home/away splits. Eagles are giving up 80.7 ppg and 50.6% shooting on the road. Akron is allowing just 55.9 ppg and 34.7% shooting at home.
Big time system in play here as well. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 105-58 (64%) ATS dating all the way back to 1997. Take Akron!
|01-14-19||Florida State v. Pittsburgh +6||62-75||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Power 5 PLAY OF THE DAY on Pitt +
This is a great price to get the Panthers at home. This is a much improved Pitt team from a year. The Panthers were 8-24 overall and 0-18 in ACC play last season. They are off to an 11-5 start and while they are just 1-2 in league play, they have home loss to UNC and a close road loss at NC State. The win was a victory at home over Louisville as a dog.
Florida State is a really good team, but I think it's really asking a lot for the Seminoles to go on the road here and blowout the Panthers. This is an absolutely brutal spot for FSU, who just suffered a gut-wrenching 80-78 loss to Duke at home, where the Blue Devils won the game on a last second 3-pointer. Those are the kind of losses that are difficult to bounce back from.
I just don't think the energy will be there for the Seminoles and wouldn't be shocked at all if Pitt won this game outright. Panthers are 11-4 ATS last 15 overall, 12-3-1 ATS last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss. FSU is 0-8 ATS last 8 as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road after a home game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take Pittsburgh!
|01-13-19||Rockets -5.5 v. Magic||109-116||Loss||-107||19 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Rockets -
Houston is playing too well right now to pass up playing them as a short road favorite against the Magic. Orlando comes in off an upset win at home over the Celtics on Saturday. While that win looks great, I'm expecting a big letdown playing on no rest. Magic had lost 4 straight, all by double-digits, leading up to that game. Orlando is also 7-20 ATS last 27 at home off an upset win as a dog.
Adding to this is a great system in play on the Rockets. Road favorites of a blowout win by at least 20 points in a game involving two teams that are scoring 102+ points/game are 70-38 (64.8%) ATS her the last 5 seasons. Take Houston!
|01-13-19||Fairfield +3.5 v. Quinnipiac||78-80||Win||100||15 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Fairfield +
Like the value here with the Stags getting points against the Bobcats. Fairfield comes in off back-to-back home wins and while they are just 3-6 SU in their last 9, they have covered 5 of their last 7.
The Stags are 37-19 ATS last 56 road games after playing 2 straight games at home and 40-23 ATS in their last 63 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Quinnipiac has won 2 of their last 3, but are just 15-30 ATS when they come into a game having done so.
This series has also been dominated by the road team, as the away side has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. Stags have covered 4 straight at Quinnipiac. Take Fairfield!
|01-13-19||Iona +3 v. Canisius||88-70||Win||100||15 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Iona +
The books have the wrong team favored in this one, as my numbers show Iona should be a small favorite here. Gaels are just 4-10 overall, but are 2-1 in conference play and will have no problem picking apart a bad Golden Griffins defense that is giving up 80.6 ppg and allowing 48% shooting on their home floor.
Canisius is 4-10 ATS last 14 games, 1-9 ATS last 10 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home.
Adding to this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Golden Griffins. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite have covered just 32.2% (29-61) of the time since 1997. Take Iona!
|01-13-19||Chargers +4 v. Patriots||Top||28-41||Loss||-106||51 h 41 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +
I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread.
Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly.
The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Hornets v. Kings -5||97-104||Win||100||14 h 49 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Kings -
Easy play here for me on the Kings as a small home favorite against the Hornets. Sacramento got back on the winning track with a 112-102 win at home against the Pistons on Thursday and have really been playing solid basketball of late. While they are just 2-5 in their last 7, they have covered 3 of 4 and all 5 losses have come by 7 or less.
Sacramento should have no problem here taking down a struggling Charlotte team that is coming off an ugly 127-96 loss at Portland last night and now faced with the difficult task of playing the 2nd leg of a back-to-back on the road. On top of that, this is their 5th straight on the road, so they have to be running on fumes.
Thinking Charlotte is primed for a bounce back after the blowout loss last night? Hornets are 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons off a loss by 20 or more. They are also 1-6 ATS last 7 on the road and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Sacramento!
|01-12-19||Pacific -4 v. Portland||65-57||Win||100||14 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific -
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Tigers as a small road favorite against the Pilots. Pacific should have no trouble winning this game, but are being undervalued by the books because they come in off an ugly 67-36 loss at Gonzaga, which was their 3rd straight overall. Note the other two were both against quality teams.
This is also a big game for the Tigers, as they are still searching for that first conference win and while the same can be said about Portland, a lot less is expected of them. Pilots are a mere 4-10-1 ATS last 15 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-6 ATS last 7 after a SU loss by more than 20. Tigers are 4-1 ATS last 5 after scoring 50 or less and 5-1 ATS last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Pacific!
|01-12-19||Cowboys v. Rams -7||22-30||Win||100||34 h 51 m||Show|
3* NFL Saturday (Cowboys/Rams) HEAVY HITTER on Rams -
It's been quite a run for these Cowboys since they made the trade for Amari Cooper, but I think they are going to have a very tough time keeping it respectable against LA on Saturday. For me it's all about the matchup.
Dallas has a strong pass rush and is good at stopping the run. That's great against a team like Seattle, who to their own demise ran the ball way too much last week. When the Seahawks were forced to pass they did so with relative ease and I think had they gone to it earlier they would have won.
The Rams aren't going to try to pound the rock against this defense, even with an elite back like Todd Gurley. Sean McVay is too smart and will be quick to attack a very vulnerable Cowboys secondary. Gurley will still get his touches, just more in the passing game.
Another thing with the Dallas defense is they weren't nearly as good on the road. Cowboys allowed only 327 ypg on the season, yet gave up 368 ypg on the road, which tells you how different the story was for this defense depending on the venue.
I also think people see that the Rams are giving up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and assume the Cowboys will be able to run the ball with ease. A lot of that has to do with LA playing a bunch of games where they had big leads and were playing more a prevent defense, which will give up big yards on the ground. Donald and Suh will be difference makers and I don't buy for a second that Dak Prescott can have the kind of game to go score for score with the Rams. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||13-31||Win||100||30 h 11 m||Show|
4* NFL Saturday (Colts/Chiefs) VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -
I really like the value here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home against the Colts. Even though the Chiefs arguably have the best quarterback in the league and the likely MVP, the public is on Andrew Luck and Indy in this one.
While the Chiefs missed out on a couple opportunities to clinch the AFC West and No. 1 seed in the final few weeks, it may have been for the best. I would have been a lot more concerned with this team if they had clinched the No. 1 seed in Week 15 and had the last couple weeks mean nothing and them basically going into this game not having played a meaningful game in almost a month.
The bottom line is they earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and while Andy Reid and the Chiefs don't have the best postseason history, none of that matters with No. 15 at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is special and the inability to score has been the biggest downfall in a lot of recent home losses for KC.
Last year they were held to 21 points and shutout in the 2nd half of a 22-21 loss and in 2016 they fell 18-16 to the Steelers in the Divisional Round. Scoring won't be a problem. The Chiefs at least 26 points in every game and as bad as the defense has been on paper, there's no debate that they are a completely different defense at home.
I know the Chiefs didn't know exactly who they would face, but Andy Reid with multiple weeks to prepare for a game has been nearly unbeatable. I just think all the factors here heavily favor not just a KC win, but a comfortable victory on Saturday. Take Kansas City!
|01-12-19||Towson +5 v. James Madison||Top||65-74||Loss||-108||8 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH BEST BET on Towson +
The books have completely missed the mark here with the Tigers as a 5-point road dog. My numbers show this game should be a lot closer to a pick'em. James Madison has the better record, but that's simply because they played the much easier non-conference schedule.
The Dukes won and covered their last time out, but are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a game where they covered. James Madison is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Towson!
|01-12-19||Northeastern -1 v. William & Mary||90-70||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Northeastern -
The Huskies come in off a 81-70 win at Elon last time out and should have no problem securing another road win against William & Mary. The Tribe have a solid 5-3 SU record over their last 8, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
The books have tipped their hand in recent meetings between these two, as the favorite is 7-3 ATS last 10 overall. Key here will be defense or the lack of it from William & Mary. The Tribe are allowing 80 ppg, as opposing teams are shooting 47% from the field and 38% from deep against them this season.
It's also worth pointing out that the Huskies are 19-8 ATS last 27 on the road after a conference road game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 on the road with a line of +3 to -3. Take Northeastern!