|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-11-20||Lakers v. Heat +6||Top||106-93||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6
The Los Angeles Lakers got a monster game from Lebron James and a solid one from Anthony Davis in Game 5 and still couldn’t beat the Heat. That’s a great sign for the resilient Heat moving forward in this series.
Once again, the Heat are catching too many points in Game 6. They were only getting 4.5 in Game 1, and oddsmakers have adjusted their lines drastically since. They have gone 3-0-1 ATS in the last four games in this series while being anywhere from a 6 to 10-point dog. And now they are 6-point dogs for Game 6.
Amazingly, the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in four of five games in this series. They were tied at 14 apiece in Game 5, but the Lakers have still made 12 more 3-pointers in this series than the Heat. And Miami is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, while the Lakers are one of the worst. Maybe this is finally the game the Heat make more, even though they’ve proven they don’t need to to hang in this series.
Miami is 15-4 ATS in all playoff games this season. The Heat have bee grossly underrated all postseason, and they continue to be in Game 6 tonight. It has to be deflating to LeBron to play as well as he did in Game 5 and still come up short. It’s going to give Miami belief, and it’s going to give LeBron and company doubt. Bet the Heat in Game 6 Sunday.
|10-09-20||Heat +7.5 v. Lakers||Top||111-108||Win||100||26 h 22 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
The Miami Heat were 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 of this series. They are now 7.5-point dogs in Game 5. There’s value with the Heat, just as there has been in each of the last three games as they were 7.5, 9 and 10-point dogs. They went 2-0-1 ATS in those three games.
The remarkable part about this series is that the Heat are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA while the Lakers are one of the worst. But the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in every game thus far and lead with 59 makes compared to just 45 for the Heat. I guess you could say the Heat are due to out-shoot them.
Getting Bam Adebayo back for Game 4 was huge for the Heat and it was a one-possession game almost the entire way. He has two more days to recover and heal up now after they last played on Tuesday. The Heat won’t go down without a fight, and I love them catching 7.5 points in this elimination game. Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games overall. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Friday.
|10-06-20||Lakers v. Heat +7.5||Top||102-96||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
What’s amazing is that the Miami Heat still won Game 3 despite making fewer 3-pointers than the Lakers for a 3rd straight game. They won in blowout fashion even 115-104. At some point the Heat being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is going to show in this series.
The Lakers have now made 45 3-pointers in this series compared to just 34 for the Heat. This should even itself over the course of the remainder of the series considering the Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.
And there’s good news on the horizon for the Heat as Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for this game, and he’s likely to play. His defense on the inside is huge for this team. And it makes sense that this line has went from 9.5 down to 7.5 for Game 4 with his expected return.
It’s still too high, and there’s not 7.5 points difference between these two teams. Keep in mind the line was 4.5 for Game 1. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Tuesday.
|10-04-20||Lakers v. Heat +9.5||Top||104-115||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +9.5
The Miami Heat are the better 3-point shooting team than the Lakers in this series. Yet, the Lakers have out-shot them in both of the first two games of this series. I have to think the Heat will shoot better than the Lakers in 3 tonight with the law of averages.
The Lakers made 15 3-pointers in Game 1 compared to just 11 for Miami. In Game 2, the Lakers made 16 while the Heat made only 11. And the Heat are having to go small ball now and put more shooters on the floor with their injuries. But there is a chance they get Adebayo back tonight, which would be huge for them.
The Heat are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games overall. Miami is 23-8 ATS off a loss this season. Bet the Heat in Game 3 Sunday.
|10-02-20||Heat +10 v. Lakers||Top||114-124||Push||0||12 h 4 m||Show|
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +10
This is too big of an adjustment for the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. The Heat go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 10-point dogs in Game 2 with the news that Adebayo and Dragic are both doubtful.
The Heat have been one of the deepest teams in the NBA all season. So they have the depth to overcome these injuries, and more importantly the heart to overcome them. You know Jimmy Butler will do more, and I expect his supporting cast to follow his lead in this game.
The Heat are a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. They winning SU by an average of 9.0 points per game in this spot. The Heat are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss dating back further. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Friday.
|09-30-20||Heat +5 v. Lakers||Top||98-116||Loss||-115||11 h 17 m||Show|
20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +5
The Miami Heat have been the most impressive team in the playoffs. They dismantled the Pacers in four games, the Bucks in five and the Celtics in six. They just play so well together as a team and don’t have a weakness.
The Los Angeles Lakers pretty much cruised their way to the NBA Finals. They faced a banged up Blazers team, a Rockets team that couldn’t handle their size, and a Nuggets team that was running on fumes after two seven-game series but still gave them a run for their money.
Bam Adebayo is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate every season and will match up with Anthony Davis as well as anyone. And the Heat have defenders to slow down LeBron James as much as possible in Butler, Iguodala and Crowder. This is actually a great matchup for the Heat, and it should show starting with Game 1.
Miami is 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in playoff games this season. Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday.
|09-27-20||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214.5||113-125||Loss||-106||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214.5
The Heat and Celtics have gone over the total in three straight games now. That has forced oddsmakers to set this total 7.5 points higher than it was in Game 2, which was set at 207. Now it’s 214.5 and the highest total of the series. There’s definitely value with the UNDER because of it. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Sunday.
|09-26-20||Nuggets +5 v. Lakers||Top||107-117||Loss||-105||12 h 48 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +5
The Denver Nuggets have erased two 3-1 deficits already in these playoffs for the first time in NBA playoff history. And here we are again with the Nuggets in this exact same situation, a spot that they are clearly comfortable with.
And the Nuggets seem to have figured out the Lakers since Game 1. They have shot 47.3% or better in every game in this series. They lost at the buzzer in Game 2, won 114-106 in Game 3 and only lost 108-114 in Game 4 after the Lakers got a lot of preferential treatment from the refs down the stretch. They shot a whopping 35 free throws in that game and that is unlikely to happen again.
Denver is 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|09-25-20||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 213.5||Top||108-121||Loss||-110||11 h 34 m||Show|
25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 213.5
Oddsmakers have jacked this total up from 208.5 in Game 3 to 212 in Game 4 to 213.5 in Game 5. There’s now ample value to bet the UNDER in Game 5 tonight and we’ll take advantage.
It’s inflated because Games 3 and 4 went over the totals. But Game 4 was a dead nuts under until late in the game. It was 50-44 at halftime and it took a bunch of 3-pointers and fouls in the final minutes to get over the number. That’s unlikely to happen again.
Elimination games are always more tense, which brings to the table more of a half-court game and poor shooting. It also amps up the defense for both teams as one is trying to advance to the NBA Finals, while the other is fighting to stay alive.
The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games following a SU loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|09-24-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +6||114-108||Push||0||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +6
The Denver Nuggets are so resilient. They came up with a big effort in Game 2 as 5.5-point dogs and lost at the buzzer, 103-105. And they rebounded with a 114-106 victory as 5.5-point dogs in Game 3. Now they are catching 6 points in Game 4 tonight.
The Nuggets are now 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. I’m not about to go against this trend, instead I’ll back it as Denver continues coming up big when behind tonight. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.
|09-23-20||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211||Top||109-112||Loss||-110||10 h 15 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 211
The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will certainly be prepared for each other heading into Game 4. After all, they’ve had three days off in between games to practice and prepare.
That’s going to favor the UNDER big-time in Game 4 tonight. It already favors defense the longer a series goes on, but that will especially be the case in this series with this delay in action.
In Game 3 the refs were whistle-happy and sent both teams to the free throw line 30-plus times. The Heat were 28-of-34 from the charity stripe, while the Celtics were 26-of-30. They had shot just 38 combined free throws in Game 2 and that went up to 64 in Game 3. There won’t be nearly as many fouls called in Game 4 tonight.
The UNDER is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four games following a loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|09-22-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5||Top||106-114||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +6.5
The Denver Nuggets have been the comeback kids in these playoffs, and being down 0-2 won’t phase them at all. They overcame two 3-1 deficits to win the first two series for the first time in NBA history.
The Nuggets really showed they could play with the Lakers in Game 2 in their 103-105 loss at the buzzer. They have also proven they are a matchup problem for the Lakers as they shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 47.3% in Game 2.
They are getting to the rim, but they haven’t shot the 3-pointer to their potential yet, making fewer than 10 in each of their first two games. They made 9 in Game 1 and just 8 in Game 2. Look for them to get double-digit 3-pointers in Game 3 tonight.
Denver is 10-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
|09-20-20||Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers||103-105||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +7.5
The Denver Nuggets were clearly tired coming off two seven-game series in Game 1. They did not play well, and the Lakers blitzed them for a 126-114 win. Look for the Nuggets to bounce back in Game 2 and make a game of this.
The Nuggets are used to being down and probably are more comfortable in this role now after overcoming two 3-1 deficits. They will have the belief, and they did find plenty of holes in the Lakers’ defense in Game 1 as they shot 49.4% front the field.
But they only made 9 3-pointers, which was one of their lowest totals of the playoffs. And they turned the ball over 16 times, which was likely due to fatigue. Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.
Denver is 9-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Take the Nuggets Sunday.
|09-19-20||Celtics v. Heat UNDER 207.5||Top||117-106||Loss||-105||11 h 2 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5
As we’ve seen all playoffs, as a series goes on points are harder to come by. Teams become familiar with one another and it favors defense. The game slows down to a half court affair almost every time.
The Celtics and Heat combined for 207 points in Game 2, which would be low enough to cash this UNDER. And it’s worth noting both teams shot well, especially the Celtics, who shot 50% from the field and that’s unlikely to happen again. The Heat shot 44.4% as a team.
The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER 9-2 in Celtics last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|09-18-20||Nuggets v. Lakers -7||Top||114-126||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7
The Los Angeles Lakers are rested and ready to go in the Western Conference Finals. They made easy work of the Houston Rockets in five games, getting better as the series went on. After losing Game 1, they went on to win four straight all by 8 points or more.
The Denver Nuggets just became the first team in NBA history to erase two 3-1 deficits in the same postseason and come back to win the series. They have put a lot of mileage on their tires, and it’s only human nature for them to come out flat in Game 1 tonight.
We saw that last series when they were completely flat in Game 1 against the Clippers. They lost that game 97-120, and we should see a similar result here. The Lakers have won three of their four meetings with the Nuggets this season.
Denver is 4-12 ATS after successfully covering the spreading two or more consecutive games this season. The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. Bet the Lakers Friday.
|09-17-20||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 209.5||106-101||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* Heat/Celtics ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209.5
The Heat and Celtics combined for 212 points at the end of regulation in Game 1. And it took a big 58-point 4th quarter to get there. Look for them to combine for fewer than 209.5 points at the end of regulation in Game 2, so we’ll take the UNDER and hope to avoid overtime.
Both teams shot the ball pretty well in Game 1. The Heat shot 47.1% from the field and were 16-of-36 (44.4%) from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen again. The Celtics shot 44.3% from the field and 15-of-42 (35.7%) from 3-point range. Those numbers are close to their season averages. They also shot 21-of-23 (91.3%) from the charity stripe.
As we’ve seen in the playoffs, as a series goes on, points are harder to come by because teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense. The books set a 208-point total in Game 1, and now they’ve actually raised it to 209.5, so I think there’s value with the UNDER.
Boston is 13-5 UNDER when revenging a loss as a favorite this season. The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last five games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|09-15-20||Heat +108 v. Celtics||Top||117-114||Win||108||7 h 23 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML +108
The Miami Heat are now 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the playoffs. They swept the Pacers and beat the Bucks in five games. They are the real deal, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as underdogs to the Boston Celtics in Game 1.
This despite the fact that the Heat are the fresher team having a week off to get ready for this game. And all that extra preparation they got leading up to this series, they will be ready for Game 1 tonight with a great game plan from Erik Spoelstra.
The Celtics should still be fresh with three days off in between games, but they did just have to go seven games with the Toronto Raptors. And it’s worth noting the Heat upset the Celtics 112-106 as 4-point underdogs in their lone meeting in the bubble. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|09-13-20||Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 215||Top||98-111||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215 We’ve seen this entire 2nd round of the playoffs where games become lower and lower scoring as the series goes on. We’re now into Game 6 between the Nuggets and Clippers, and this could be the lowest scoring game yet. Game 5 saw 216 combined points, but it took a huge comeback by the Nuggets and a 63-point 4th quarter to get there. I don’t see that happening again. Plus, the Nuggets had their best shooting game of the series at 48.1%, which also isn’t going to happen again. This should be closer to Game 4 when the Clippers won 96-85 in a defensive battle. The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Clippers last six games overall. The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Clippers last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Nuggets last six games overall. The UNDER is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|09-12-20||Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 215.5||Top||96-119||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5
I cashed in the Rockets/Lakers UNDER in Game 4 and I’m back on the UNDER today. Three of four games in this series have seen 214 combined points or fewer. The Lakers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and the Rockets get a bad reputation as their defense is better than their ’small ball’ lineup would suggest.
As we’ve seen with every series in the 2nd round, points come hard to get the deeper a series goes. Teams get familiar with one another, and there are fewer fast break opportunities. It basically becomes a half court game in the playoffs the deeper a series goes.
Houston is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games this season. Los Angeles is 25-12 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Saturday.
|09-11-20||Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors||Top||92-87||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2.5
The Toronto Raptors are very fortunate to still be alive in this series. They needed a buzzer-beater in Game 3 to avoid falling down 0-3, and they needed double-overtime to win Game 6. The Celtics have clearly been the better team in this series, and they will win Game 7 by being the better team tonight.
Boston hasn’t shot worse than 42.1% in any game in the series, and has shot 44% or better in five of the six games. Toronto has shot 43.6% or worse in five of six games, and 40% or worse in four of those. The Celtics are clearly the better defensive team.
Boston is 18-9 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Celtics are 13-3 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins more than 70% of their games this season. Boston is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|09-11-20||Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 216||111-105||Push||0||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216
The Nuggets and Clippers are coming off a very low scoring Game 4 and oddsmakers haven set this total too high once again for Game 5. They just combined for 181 points in a 96-85 victory for the Clippers in Game 4.
Now they have the total at 216, which they have lowered, but it’s just not low enough. As a playoff series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, which favors defense. And it leads to fewer fast breaks and a lot of half court offense.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Nuggets last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five games overall. The UNDER is 40-18-1 in the last 59 meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|09-10-20||Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5||Top||110-100||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 219.5
Both the Lakers and Rockets shot really well in Game 3 and it still saw just 214 combined points. The Lakers shot 55.1% while the Rockets shot 46.9% from the field. I would have a hard time seeing either team shooting as well in Game 4.
As we’ve seen with the other 2nd round series thus far, the deeper it gets into the series, the harder it is to score points. That’s because teams become more familiar with one another, and it inevitably becomes a half-court game with few fast break opportunities.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Rockets last six games overall. The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|09-09-20||Clippers v. Nuggets +8||Top||96-85||Loss||-106||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +8
The Denver Nuggets have really impressed since coming out flat in Game 1. That was expected as they were just coming off a 7-game series against the Jazz in which they put a lot into coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win that series.
But the Nuggets look rejuvenated in their last two games. They pulled the 110-101 upset in Game 2 as 8.5-point dogs, and led most the way over the Clippers in Game 3, only to fall short 107-113.
The Clippers even shot 54.7% as a team in Game 3 and still only won by 6 points. It’s going to take a lot for the Clippers to be able to put away the Nuggets by 8-point points tonight.
Denver is 8-0 ATS after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus fewer free throws than their opponent over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are coming back to win by 10.2 points per game in this spot. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
|09-08-20||Lakers -4.5 v. Rockets||Top||112-102||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers bounced back nicely in Game 2 with a 117-109 victory as 5.5-point favorites over the Houston Rockets. Now they go up 2-1 with another win and cover in Game 3 tonight.
The Lakers won despite the Rockets making 10 more 3-pointers (22) than they did (12). Los Angeles took advantage of its size and got easy bucket after easy bucket. The Lakers shot 47-of-83 (56.6%) from the field. Look for them to continue to be aggressive with Lebron and Anthony Davis both getting to the rim at will.
The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one days’ rest. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest. Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|09-07-20||Celtics -1.5 v. Raptors||Top||111-89||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -1.5
The Boston Celtics were one shot away from being up 3-0 in this series. They suffered a heartbreaker in Game 3 at the buzzer, and then in Game 4 they simply shot poorly while the Raptors shot lights out from 3-point range.
Indeed, the Celtics had their worst shooting game of the series, making just 7-of-35 (20%) from distance. The Raptors shot 17-of-44 (38.6%) in the same game, yet the Celtics still had a chance late and only lost 93-100. Look for a role reversal here.
Even though I cashed the Raptors the last two games, I still believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, so I have to side with them in this all-important Game 5. Boston is 12-2 ATS vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games this season. Bet the Celtics Monday.
|09-06-20||Rockets v. Lakers -5.5||Top||109-117||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Lakers ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers showed some rust in Game 1 against the Blazers in the first round because they weren’t trying too hard in the bubble. But they rebounded to win the next four games, including a 111-88 blowout in Game 2.
The Lakers were rusty again coming into Game 1 against the Rockets in Round 2. They had six days off prior to Game 1 and the rust showed. The Lakers shot just 42.2% from the field and 28.9% from the 3-point line. Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.
Now the Lakers go from being 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 down to 5.5-point favorites in Game 2. I don’t agree with the line adjustment, and there’s clearly value with the Lakers here as they’ll be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency than Houston. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|09-05-20||Raptors +1.5 v. Celtics||100-93||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +1.5
The Toronto Raptors are going to have a great mindset heading into Game 4 tonight. They saved their season with a 3-point buzzer beater in a 104-103 win over Boston in Game 3 after losing a 99-102 heartbreaker in Game 2. Now they have the belief they can get it done.
The Celtics have simply shot better than the Raptors from 3-point range in this series, which has really been the difference. The Celtics are 41-of-106 (38.7%) for the series while the Raptors are 34-of-120 (28.3%). The Raptors shot it better than the Celtics during the regular season so that should even itself out, and it did in Game 3.
Toronto is 14-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season. The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs. Toronto is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 games playing on one days’ rest. Take the Raptors Saturday.
|09-04-20||Bucks -5 v. Heat||Top||100-115||Loss||-103||18 h 39 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5
The Milwaukee Bucks are basically in a must-win situation here now down 0-2 to the Miami Heat. While I knew the Heat would give them a series because they are gritty and have great shooting, I have to go against the Heat in this situation.
Miami will relax while Milwaukee will simply want it more. And I trust Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments in this one. The Bucks shot poorly and still almost won Game 2, shooting 43.5% from the floor and 28% from 3-point range. I expect them to improve upon those numbers in Game 3 tonight.
Milwaukee is 45-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Bucks are 25-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games following a loss. Bet the Bucks Friday.
|09-03-20||Raptors -112 v. Celtics||Top||104-103||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors ML -112
The Toronto Raptors blew a double-digit lead in the 2nd half over the Celtics in Game 2. It was all Marcus Smart as he went 5-of-6 from 3-point range in the 4th quarter alone and was unconscious. I don’t see that happening again.
Now down 0-2, the Raptors are in must-win mode, and I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done in Game 3 and get back into this series. They clearly have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.
Indeed, the Raptors shot just 36.9% in Game 1 and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range. Then they shot just 40% in Game 2 and 11-of-40 (27.5%) from 3-point range. They are now 21-of-80 (26.3%) from distance in the series while Boston is 32-of-77 (41.6%). That discrepancy can’t continue. Toronto shoots 37.4% on the season while Boston shoots 36.5%.
The Raptors are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss. Toronto is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Raptors Thursday.
|09-02-20||Heat v. Bucks -5||Top||116-114||Loss||-106||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* Heat/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5
The Milwaukee Bucks lost Game 1 to the Orlando Magic last series and promptly bounced back with four straight double-digit victories. While it won’t come as easily against the Miami Heat, I do expect the Bucks to bounce back with a win and cover in Game 2 tonight.
The Bucks shot just 14-of-26 (53.8%) from the free throw line in Game 1 while theHeat shot 25-of-27 (92.6%). That was the difference. Also, the Bucks only had one day to prepare for Miami, while the Heat had a whole week to prepare for Milwaukee after sweeping the Pacers. Look for Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments leading into Game 2.
The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games off a SU win by more than 10 points. Milwaukee is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss, including 12-3 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Bucks Wednesday.
|09-01-20||Celtics v. Raptors -120||Top||102-99||Loss||-120||5 h 14 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto ML -120
I cashed with the Celtics in Game 1, but I’m taking the Raptors to bounce back in Game 2. I do believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, but it has seven games written all over it.
Toronto shot very poorly in Game 1. They made just 36.9% from the field and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range. The Celtics shot 47% from the field and 17-of-39 (43.6%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be a lot more in the Raptors’ favor tonight.
Toronto is 13-3 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games off an ATS loss. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|08-31-20||Rockets v. Thunder +6||Top||100-104||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder showed some resiliency fighting back from an 0-2 deficit to tie this series. Now they will show it again after their worst performance of the series in Game 5 and come back with a much better effort in Game 6.
The Thunder shot just 31.5% as a team and 7-of-46 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 5. That’s not going to happen again. The Rockets aren’t a very good defensive team with their small ball lineup, so it was more of a case of the Thunder just missing good looks in Game 5 than Houston’s D.
Houston is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games off a win by 30 points or more. The Rockets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when attempting to close out a playoff series. Oklahoma City is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|08-30-20||Celtics +2 v. Raptors||112-94||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +2
The Boston Celtics just swept the Philadelphia 76ers and are ready to try and take down the defending champs starting with Game 1 of this series Sunday. Give the Raptors some credit for what they’ve done this season, but they clearly aren’t as good without Kawhi Leonard.
Boston went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against Toronto in the regular season. That includes a 22-point win and a 16-point win as they were clearly the dominant team in the head-to-head matchup. And I expect that to carry over into the playoffs. The wrong team is favored in Game 1 here.
Boston is 9-1 ATS when playing with three or more days’ rest over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins 70% or more of their games this season. The Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs. Take the Celtics Sunday.
|08-29-20||Thunder +5.5 v. Rockets||Top||80-114||Loss||-115||8 h 11 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after erasing an 0-2 deficit to win Games 3 and 4 and tie this series back up. Now they take control of it with another victory in Game 5 tonight.
The Thunder opened the series as 1-point favorites in Game 1, and are now 5.5-point underdogs in Game 5. That’s a 6.5-point adjustment, and I don’t agree with it. I believe the wrong team is favored once again in Game 5 tonight.
The Rockets have shot worse than 44% from the field in eight of their last 11 games overall. Shots just aren’t coming as easily for the Rockets, and I think too much is being made of Russell Westbrook coming back for this game. He isn’t going to be back to full strength and there will be some rust and chemistry issues.
The Thunder are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs. Oklahoma City is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 games playing on one days’ rest. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Thunder Saturday.
|08-25-20||Jazz v. Nuggets +3||Top||107-117||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Denver +3
It’s now or never for the Denver Nuggets, who find themselves in a 1-3 hole to the Utah Jazz with their season on the line in Game 5 tonight. I expect them to get the job done and extend this series to a 6th game.
The Jazz only won 129-127 in Game 4 as 3.5-point favorites despite shooting 57.5% from the field and making 19 more free throws than Denver. Both of those things aren’t going to happen again, and thus the Nuggets should be able to win.
I was on the Nuggets in Game 4 and cashed, and I’m on them again for similar reasons. They were 4.5-point favorites over the Jazz in Game 1, and now they are 3-point underdogs in Game 5. That’s a 7.5-point adjustment and too much.
The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites. Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
|08-24-20||Lakers v. Blazers +7.5||135-115||Loss||-105||12 h 43 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +7.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are catching too many points in Game 4 tonight as they try and square this series. They upset the Lakers in Game 1, and the Lakers understandably came back with a big effort in Game 2.
But the Blazers gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 3 and lost 108-116 as 8-point dogs. They will play an even better game here with their season essentially on the line.
It’s only a matter of time before the Blazers shoot the ball better in this series. They shot 39.2% in Game 1, 40% in Game 2 and 41.1% in Game 3. The Lakers shot 50% in Game 3 and they still only lost by 8. Only a slight improvement will have them covering this 7.5-point spread with ease.
The Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Blazers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Portland has just one loss by more than 8 points since the restart, which is a span of 12 games. Take the Blazers Monday.
|08-24-20||Rockets v. Thunder +3.5||Top||114-117||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5
With their season essentially on the line, the Oklahoma City Thunder came through with a huge 119-107 (OT) victory over the Houston Rockets in Game 3. They had to battle adversity and poor officiating down the stretch of regulation to get the win.
The way they won that game will give the Thunder a lot of confidence heading into Game 4 tonight to try and square this series. And I expect it to pay dividends for them in the 4th quarter.
The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They have shown that in their last two games, limiting the Rockets to just 41.8% shooting in Game 2 and 41.3% shooting in Game 3. It’s a Rockets team that just hasn’t shot it very well since the restart because they have such poor shot selection. They have been held to less than 44% in eight of their last 10 games overall.
Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. The Thunder are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as underdogs. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|08-23-20||Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz||Top||127-129||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3.5
The Denver Nuggets were embarrassed in Games 2 and 3 and will come back with their biggest effort of the series in Game 4 to try and square it at 2-2.
From a line value prospective alone this is the play with the Nuggets as 3.5-point dogs when you consider they were 4.5-point favorites in Game 1, an 8-point adjustment.
Denver is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five ATS over the last three seasons. Utah is 4-15-2 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.
|08-22-20||Rockets v. Thunder +3.5||Top||107-119||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5
It’s now or never for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They blew a 59-53 halftime lead in Game 2 and got killed in the 2nd half. Look for them to respond in a big way today to take Game 3 and avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole.
The Thunder haven’t shot the ball up to their potential in either game yet. They shot just 44% in Game 1 and 44.3% in Game 2. And it’s not like the Rockets are some defensive juggernaut with their small ball lineup, either. Scoring only 108 and 98 points, respectively, in the first two games of this series is unacceptable.
Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Thunder are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as underdogs overall. OKC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Houston, so it had covered five straight prior to the first two games of this series. Bet the Thunder Saturday.
|08-22-20||Pacers +5 v. Heat||115-124||Loss||-103||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Heat TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +5
It’s now or never for the Indiana Pacers. They are down 0-2 to the Miami Heat while playing a couple of hard-fought games. They just couldn’t get the job done in the 4th quarter in either of the two games, but had their chances.
Look for the Pacers to come back with their best performance of the series today to avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole. I think there’s great value with them here as 5-point underdogs after they were only 3.5-point dogs in Game 2. Victor Oladipo is back healthy after missing most of Game 1 with an eye contusion, and he means everything to their success.
Indiana is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Miami is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a SU win. The Heat are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win. Take the Pacers Saturday.
|08-21-20||Clippers -5 v. Mavs||Top||130-122||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -5
The Los Angeles Clippers played what will prove to be their worst game of the series in Game 2. They shot just 29.4% from 3-point range compared to 44.8% for Dallas and committed six more turnovers than the Mavericks. For whatever reason, they just weren’t into it.
I have no doubt the Clippers will come back with the intensity they need to put the Mavericks away in Game 3. They have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and their role players are also much better than that of Dallas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Clippers win the next three games in this series.
Los Angeles is 12-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Clippers are 14-4 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 17-5 ATS following a loss this season. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|08-21-20||Nuggets -1.5 v. Jazz||87-124||Loss||-104||6 h 19 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -1.5
The Nuggets went from being 4.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 3.5-point favorites in Game 2. Now oddsmakers have listed them as only 1.5-point favorites in Game 3, which is a 3-point adjustment from the Game 1 line. I think the value is with the Nuggets in Game 3 as a result.
This adjustment is made from Utah playing a great Game 2 and shooting 51.7% in a 124-105 victory. They aren’t going to shoot that well again. It’s also adjusted for the expected return of Mike Conley, but he has been one of the most overrated players in the NBA this season as the Jazz have actually been just as good or better without him.
The Nuggets are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss. The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|08-20-20||Thunder +3 v. Rockets||Top||98-111||Loss||-115||5 h 11 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3
The Oklahoma City Thunder went from being favorites in Game 1 to 3-point underdogs in Game 2. This is too big of an adjustment just because the Rockets looked good in Game 1 in their 123-108 victory.
Look for the Thunder to play with more of a sense of urgency tonight. And I have a hard time believing the Rockets are going to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, which was 48.3% from the field with 20 made 3-pointers. The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
Oklahoma City is 21-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Oklahoma City is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. The Thunder are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 games as underdogs. The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|08-19-20||Mavs v. Clippers -6||Top||127-114||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6
The Clippers are as healthy as they’ve been all season with the returns of Harrell, Beverly and Shamet for Game 1 of this series. They shook off their rust and came through with a 118-110 victory. They’re only going to continue to gel more with each passing game, and they are clearly the best team in the West in my opinion.
The Dallas Mavericks rely too much on Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. That’s because they lost key role players in Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein to season ending injuries.
After a poor 1st half defensively giving up 69 points, the Clippers showed what they could do when they get after it defensively in the 2nd half. They held the Mavericks to just 41 points after intermission, which was the key to their victory. With stoppers like Kawhi Leonard, Beverly and Paul George, the Clippers can match up with Doncic and Porzingis as well as anyone.
The Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Los Angeles is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games playing on one days’ rest. The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by an average of 10 points pre game. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|08-18-20||Heat -4.5 v. Pacers||Top||113-101||Win||100||5 h 19 m||Show|
20* Heat/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Miami -4.5
The Miami Heat are a real threat in the Eastern Conference. And they are just getting healthy in time for the playoffs with Butler, Dragic, Adebayo, Iguodala and Crowder all listed as probable tonight. Look for them to handle their business against the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 tonight.
The Heat are 3-1 SU against the Pacers this season, including a 114-92 win in the bubble when they were healthy. Their only loss came in their regular season finale when they had nothing to play for and rested everyone.
Give the Pacers credit for fighting through injuries of their own and still posting a 45-28 record this season. But it’s much easier to do that in the regular season than it is in the playoffs, and the fact of the matter is that they just aren’t talented enough to compete at this level, especially without All-Star Domantas Sabonis.
Miami is 27-14 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Heat are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. Miami is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 games playing on three or more days’ rest. The Heat are 31-15-2 ATS in their last 48 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|08-17-20||Mavs v. Clippers -6||Top||110-118||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6
The Los Angeles Clippers are more healthy now for the start of the playoffs than they were for the eight-game sample. They are expected to get back the guy that brings the infectious energy in Montrezl Harrell, and they could be getting back another guy in his same mold in Patrick Beverly. Landry Shamet also could return.
Either way, I think the Clippers have enough to take care of the Mavericks with room to spare in Game 1 of this series tonight. They won all three regular season meetings with the Mavericks, including two by 15 points each. They won 126-111 as 3.5-point favorites in the bubble on August 6th.
The Mavericks are just a shell of their former selves with the season-ending injuries to Dwight Powell, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein. They don’t have near the depth that the Clippers do, and they rely too much on just two games in Doncic and Porzingis. Kawhi Leonard can shut down Doncic if Doc Rivers decides to go that route.
The Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Clippers Monday.
|08-15-20||Grizzlies +6.5 v. Blazers||Top||122-126||Win||100||3 h 9 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Blazers Play-In No-Brainer on Memphis +6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers only need to win one game against Memphis to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies need to win two games, so look for them to be playing with more of a sense of urgency in this Game 1 than the Blazers will be.
Portland clearly cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number either. While the Blazers went 6-2 in the restart, all eight games were decided by 10 points or less, and they have only two wins by more than 5 points. They just don’t play enough defense to put teams away, and they are a terrible rebounding team.
Memphis lost 135-140 in overtime to Portland during he restart. But the Grizzlies won 111-104 in their previous meeting back in February. And I expect this one to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there’s a lot of value with the Grizzlies +6.5 here. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.
|08-13-20||Mavs v. Suns -7||Top||102-128||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -7
The Phoenix Suns need a win and either a loss by Memphis or Portland to make the play-in series for the 8th seed in the West. They’ve made it this far, and they’re not about to let up now.
The Suns are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS since the restart, the only undefeated team in the bubble. And they’re not only winning, they are dominating. Four of those seven wins have come by double-digits. They have won those seven games by an average of 11.3 points per game.
The Dallas Mavericks are locked into the 7th seed and looking ahead to their series with the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. They won’t be too motivated to win this game, and they could rest their players with nicks and bruises.
The Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Mavericks. Phoenix is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Suns Thursday.
|08-12-20||Heat -1 v. Thunder||Top||115-116||Loss||-110||9 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1
The Miami Heat just got Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic back from injury and promptly ended a two-game losing streak with an emphatic 114-92 win over Indiana as 4-point favorites Monday. Now I look for them to take down the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday.
While the Heat are almost fully healthy, the same cannot be said for the Thunder. They are without Dennis Schroder, and Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all questionable to play tonight. Don’t be surprised if the Thunder play it safe here with the playoffs just around the corner, and playoff positioning not really a priority compared to their health. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|08-11-20||Blazers -3.5 v. Mavs||Top||134-131||Loss||-110||8 h 12 m||Show|
25* NBA Restart GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS since the restart. They have been playing some great basketball and are closing in on making the play-in game in the West for the 8th and final seed. This is a much more important game for them than it is the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are in 7th place in the West and one game back of the Jazz. They are basically locked into this spot with two games to go. It’s why they decided to sit Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis last game, and both of them are questionable to play again tonight. The Mavericks have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now and would be wise to play it safe.
Given the situation of both teams, the Blazers should be much bigger than only 3.5-point favorites tonight. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.
|08-11-20||Rockets v. Spurs -2.5||105-123||Win||100||4 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are just 0.5 games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for 9th place in the West and tied with Phoenix for 10th place. Remember, the 8th seed will face the 9th seed in a play-in game to make the playoffs. This is a must-win for San Antonio with only two games remaining.
The Spurs have handled this pressure well in going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS to put themselves in this position. And they are much healthier than the Houston Rockets, who are almost certainly locked into the 4th seed in the West.
The Rockets will be without both James Harden and Eric Gordon tonight, and they could be without Russell Westbrook, who is dealing with a quad injury. Danuel House is also questionable with a toe injury. They just want to be healthy going into the playoffs, so they’d be wise to play it safe.
The Spurs are 38-12 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Spurs Tuesday.
|08-10-20||Nuggets +5 v. Lakers||Top||121-124||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +5
The Los Angeles Lakers are already locked into the No. 1 seed in the West with nothing to play for. It has shown as the Lakers are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS since the restart. They’ve lost their last three games by a combined 40 points.
The Denver Nuggets still have something to play for as they are closing in on the No. 2 seed in the West, just one game behind the Clippers. They have played well in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. And the overall depth of their team helps them tremendously in this restart as they’ve been able to overcome some injuries.
The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing their 4th road games in 7 days over the last two seasons. Denver is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Monday games. Bet the Nuggets Monday.
|08-10-20||Pacers v. Heat -3.5||92-114||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3.5
The Miami Heat are expected to get back both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic tonight. They still have a lot to play for in terms of playoff positioning and will be going hard for a win against the Indiana Pacers Monday.
These injuries have cost Miami in their last two games with losses to Milwaukee and Phoenix. Look for them to come back highly motivated for a victory. This is the only game they’ve been favored in since their 125-105 win over Denver in their opening game of the restart. They have played an absolutely brutal schedule, but it lightens up here against Indiana, a team they should handle.
The Heat have won both meetings with he Pacers this season. Miami is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. Take the Heat Monday.
|08-09-20||76ers v. Blazers -2.5||121-124||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers need to bounce back from a tough loss to the Clippers yesterday if they want to make the playoffs. This game means a lot more to them than it does the Philadelphia 76ers.
The 76ers will be without Ben Simmons tonight, and they certainly aren’t nearly as good of a team without him. Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Portland is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Take the Blazers Sunday.
|08-08-20||Suns -1.5 v. Heat||119-112||Win||100||9 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -1.5
The Phoenix Suns are doing everything in their power to make the playoffs. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the restart with three outright victories. And now I expect them to take down the Miami Heat today.
While the Suns are healthy, the Heat have several injury concerns right now. Both Jimmy Butler and Kendrick Nunn will sit out this game, and Goran Dragic is questionable. The Suns are simply the better team right now given their current form and these injuries for the Heat.
Phoenix is 9-1 ATS when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days this season. The Suns are 8-0 ATS in road games after. Having won four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. Take the Suns Saturday.
|08-08-20||Clippers v. Blazers -2.5||Top||122-117||Loss||-110||3 h 39 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Blazers TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Portland -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have gotten healthy due to the break in action and are fully taking advantage. They are on track to make the playoffs after opening 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since the restart.
Now they face a Los Angeles Clippers team that is basically already locked into the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The Clippers would actually like to see the Blazers get the 8th seed to make the 1st-round matchup for the Lakers the most difficult. They know the Blazers would be their toughest opponent given that they made the Western Conference Finals last year when healthy.
That could be why the Clippers are deciding to rest Kawhi Leonard today. Both Patrick Beverly and Montrezl Harrell are out for Los Angeles as well. The Blazers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more over the lsat three seasons. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|08-07-20||Kings -4.5 v. Nets||Top||106-119||Loss||-110||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5
The Sacramento Kings finally got a taste of victory to remain alive in the Western Conference playoff race. They beat the Pelicans 140-125 outright as 4-point dogs. Look for them to build on that momentum and take down the Brooklyn Nets tonight.
The Nets are going to make the playoffs, it’s just whether they will be the 7th or 8th seed. They don’t have much to play for, and that showed in their 115-149 loss to the Celtics last time out. They are short-handed right now with all of their injuries, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Kings love to push the tempo and will challenge Brooklyn’s conditioning tonight. I expect the Kings to break them. Sacramento is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest. The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Kings Friday.
|08-06-20||Blazers -4 v. Nuggets||Top||125-115||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4
The Portland Trail Blazers have a lot to play for right now and they are playing like it. They have opened 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since the restart. I’ll back them again here as short favorites over the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They still have a lot of injury questions with Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton all questionable to play tonight. Given the situation, don’t be surprised if they play it cautiously.
Denver is 7-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. The Nuggets are 19-37 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three years. Portland is 13-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|08-06-20||Pacers v. Suns +125||99-114||Win||125||5 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns ML +125
The Phoenix Suns have played as well as anyone since the restart. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with upset victories over both the Mavericks and Clippers, two of the best teams in the Western Conference. Now they’ll take down the Indiana Pacers tonight as they continue their push to try and make the 8th seed in the West.
The Pacers have opened 3-0 as well, but against a much softer schedule. Their only good win was a huge comeback against Philadelphia. The other two wins were against Washington and Orlando. I still question how good this team is going to be moving forward without both Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb. Plus, Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.
Plays on underdogs (Phoenix) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog of 6 points or more are 66-34 (66%) ATS since 1996.
Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season. The Suns are 8-1 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this year. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Take the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.
|08-05-20||Nuggets v. Spurs +3.5||Top||132-126||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +3.5
The San Antonio Spurs trail the Memphis Grizzlies by two games for the 8th seed in the West. They are also 0.5 games back of the Blazers for the 9th seed, and the 8th will square off against the 9th to make the playoffs.
It’s safe to say the Spurs are highly motivated for wins right now. They are clearly playing with a sense of urgency as they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS since the restart with upset wins over Sacramento and Memphis, as well as a 2-point loss to Philadelphia as 7-point dogs on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Nuggets are only playing for playoff positioning. They lost by 20 to Miami and beat Oklahoma City in overtime. They have some injuries they are dealing with right now with both Will Barton and Garry Harris out, and Jamal Murray is questionable tonight. All three have missed their first two games as the Nuggets are playing it cautiously with them.
San Antonio is 48-22 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Bet the Spurs Wednesday.
|08-04-20||Magic -1.5 v. Pacers||109-120||Loss||-105||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5
Few teams have been more impressive than the Orlando Magic since the restart. They have put together two double-digit victories over Brooklyn and Sacramento, two other teams fighting for their playoff lives.
The Indians Pacers have also been impressive with an upset win over Philadelphia in comeback fashion and an 11-point win over Washington. But the Pacers are not healthy right now as they are missing Domantas Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb, plus Victor Oladipo is questionable with a knee injury.
The Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Orlando is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest. Take the Magic Tuesday.
|08-04-20||Suns +9 v. Clippers||Top||117-115||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9
The Phoenix Suns are making their run at the 8th seed in the West. They have opened 2-0 since the restart with a blowout win over Washington and an upset win over Dallas. Now I expect them to give the Los Angeles Clippers a run for their money tonight.
The Suns are almost fully healthy now and playing up to their potential. The Clippers are still missing some key pieces in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. They will have a hard time putting away the Suns by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread tonight.
Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss this season. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|08-03-20||Raptors v. Heat +3.5||Top||107-103||Loss||-102||2 h 5 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Heat NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3.5
The mindset of the Miami Heat for this restart is perfect. Erik Spoelstra has said all the right things, and his team delivered with a 125-105 win over the Denver Nuggets in their first game back. Now I expect them to take down the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors now essentially have the No. 2 seed locked up in the East after taking down the Los Angeles Lakers in their opener. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Celtics with seven games to play. And I think this is certainly a bit of a letdown spot off such a huge win over the Lakers.
Miami is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Toronto this season. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Heat Monday.
|08-02-20||Spurs +4.5 v. Grizzlies||Top||108-106||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The San Antonio Spurs picked up a huge 129-120 upset win over the Kings as 3.5-point underdogs in their opener. Now this is their most important game of the restart facing off against the Memphis Grizzlies, who are the No. 8 seed in the West and the team they are trying to beat out for that final playoff spot.
The Spurs are missing some important players in this restart, but they clearly showed they have enough to be competitive. They shot 53% as a team and 44% from 3-point range against the Kings. Five players scored in double figures, including DeRozan (27), White (26) and Gay (19).
The Grizzlies are a young team that may not handle the pressure of trying to make the playoffs well at all. They blew a 4th quarter lead to the Blazers and lost in overtime in their first game back from the restart. And I don’t believe they should be 4.5-point favorites here given that the Spurs simply need this game more.
San Antonio is 32-11 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last two seasons. Bet the Spurs Sunday.
|08-01-20||Heat +100 v. Nuggets||Top||125-105||Win||100||4 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat ML +100
The Miami Heat are at full strength coming into the restart. The same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets, who are going to be without Garry Harris, and they could be without both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, who are questionable. And I just love what I’m hearing from Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra.
“Our guys are competitors. They love this,” Spoelstra said. “They’re really enjoying this environment, having an opportunity to feel normal and get in between those four lines and compete. We’re excited about our team. We’ve had three really good weeks of practice, guys are ready.”
The Heat aren’t using these eight games to find a favorable matchup. They’re going to play the games and find out where they stand at the end.
“I don’t even need to explain it, we’re not going to lose games or play different to try to line up an opponent. That’s just not our language,” Spoelstra said. “We’re not going to Disney to waste each other’s times. We’re there for a reason. Competition, like I said, brings out a different quality in this group, individually and collectively. We’ll treat those games with great respect.” Bet the Heat on the Money Line Saturday.
|07-31-20||Celtics +5 v. Bucks||112-119||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Bucks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston +5
The Milwaukee Bucks have the No. 1 seed in the East locked up. They are going to find it hard to be motivated until the playoffs get here. We saw that with their 103-124 setback against New Orleans in Monday’s scrimmage. And making matters worse is they will be without both Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, who both contracted COVID-19.
Boston is fighting for seeding and could get up to the No. 2 seed in the East as they trail the Raptors by three games. They are also just 2.5 games ahead of the Heat for 4th place. They for sure want either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee until the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the Bucks will be missing some key players, the Celtics come back fully healthy and ready to go. They have Kemba Walker (21.2 PPG), Jayson Tatum (23.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG), Jaylen Brown (20.4 PPG), Gordon Hayward (17.3 PPG) and Marcus Smart (13.5 PPG) all healthy and averaging double-digit points. Take the Celtics Friday.
|07-31-20||Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5||Top||135-140||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are the biggest beneficiaries of the time off. It allowed them to get healthy as injuries decimated their roster. They now have Jusuf Nurkic, Hassan Whiteside and CJ McCollum back healthy. Damian Lillard is also good to go.
The Blazers would be the scariest No. 8 seed of all the teams vying for that spot due to their massive potential when healthy. As we saw, they made the Western Conference Finals last year when healthy.
And now the Blazers have a chance to really make a statement against Memphis tonight, which is the current No. 8 seed in the West. I think this young Grizzlies team is vulnerable here down the stretch and will have a hard time matching what they did in the first half of the season. The pressure is on, and I trust the veteran Blazers in this pressure-packed situation. Bet the Blazers Friday.
|07-30-20||Jazz v. Pelicans -2||Top||106-104||Loss||-105||6 h 25 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -2
The New Orleans Pelicans were playing great before the stoppage. They had gotten almost everyone back from injury, and they won eight of their final 13 games.
Now healthy again, the Pelicans were one of only two teams to win all of their scrimmages prior to the restart. Look for them to continue their solid play here tonight against the Utah Jazz as they try and chase down the Memphis Grizzlies for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.
The Jazz suffered a huge blow when second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic suffered a wrist injury that required season-ending surgery in May. He averaged 20.2 points per game and shot 41.4% from 3-point range this season. They simply cannot replace his shooting and scoring and will be much easier to defend now. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
|03-11-20||Hornets +10 v. Heat||109-98||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10
The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They only have two losses by more than 8 points in their last 12 games. They have been very competitive, and they certainly can hang with the Miami Heat tonight.
While the Hornets are fully healthy, which is a big reason for their solid play of late, the Heat have a plethora of injury concerns. They are without Meyes Leonard, and Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are all questionable to play tonight. The Heat are just 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Hornets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Charlotte is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Heat are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an SU win. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|03-10-20||Nets +10.5 v. Lakers||Top||104-102||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
20* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Brooklyn +10.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a huge weekend. After going 0-3 against the Bucks and Clippers previously this season, they beat both of them at home. Those are their two biggest contenders to win a title this season, and you could see the excitement on their faces after beating both.
It’s only human nature now for the Lakers to be flat tonight against the Brooklyn Nets in this obvious letdown spot. Plus, LeBron James aggregated a groin injury Sunday and is very questionable to play tonight. Don’t be surprise if the Lakers use extra caution and sit him.
Head coach Kenny Atkinson and the Nets just mutually agreed to part ways. Jacque Vaughn will be the interim coach the rest of the season. Teams usually respond well for a few games at least to a coaching change, and I expect that to be the case for the Nets here.
But the Nets have still be playing well in going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Boston on the road and San Antonio (by 19) and Chicago at home. They also only lost by 3 at Miami as 7.5-point road dogs. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Nets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Nets Tuesday.
|03-10-20||Suns v. Blazers -5||105-121||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -5
The Portland Trail Blazers come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight upset losses to Phoenix on the road and Sacramento at home in a back-to-back situation. But now the Blazers are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest.
Adding to their motivation is that they just lost to Phoenix 117-127 on the road on March 6th just a few days ago. They don’t have to wait long for revenge. And there’s no way Phoenix shoots 19-of-42 (45.2%) from 3-point range again, which was the difference in that game.
Phoenix is in a massive letdown spot off two straight upset wins over Portland and Milwaukee at home. It was a rare win for the Suns in this series. The Blazers are now 11-2 SU in their last 13 meetings with Phoenix.
Portland is 12-3 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Phoenix is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. Plays on any team (Portland) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two losing teams (40% to 49%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Blazers Tuesday.
|03-09-20||Raptors v. Jazz -4||Top||101-92||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -4
This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-113 win in Sacramento last night. They will also be playing their 5th road game in 9 days and have to be running on fumes. And now they have to go to Utah and play in altitude.
Many players played big minutes for the Raptors last night. Powell played over 42 minutes, Siakam over 38 minutes, Anunoby over 38 minutes, Ibaka over 35 minutes and Lowry over 35 minutes. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight.
Utah is back to playing up to its potential with five straight victories including four of those on the road. And now the Jazz want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 110-130 setback in Toronto on December 1st. They trailed that game by 40 at halftime and have not forgotten.
The Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Jazz are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|03-08-20||Thunder v. Celtics -3.5||105-104||Loss||-109||7 h 42 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Boston -3.5
The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a win after going just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with losses in OT, by 1 and by 5 points. It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Celtics, who get Gordon Hayward back from injury.
The Thunder were one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA all season, especially on the road, but bettors are starting to catch on. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. And I think they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers now as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Celtics tonight.
The Celtics are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Thunder. Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Boston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games. Take the Celtics Sunday.
|03-08-20||Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5||Top||112-103||Win||100||4 h 12 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Clippers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5
When the best teams in the NBA meet up I usually look to the UNDER. The Lakers just beat the Bucks 113-103 at home on Friday in a game that went way UNDER the 228.5-point total. And this one will play out similarly with points harder to come by for these teams that normal.
It will be the 3rd meeting of the season between the Lakers and Clippers, so they are very familiar with one another. And the first two meetings saw just 214 and 217 combined points. So we are getting a ton of value here on this 226.5-point total with the UNDER.
The UNDER is 13-4-1 in Lakers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings. The UNDER is 19-9 in Clippers last 28 games after a combined score of 225 points or more. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|03-07-20||Kings v. Blazers -3||123-111||Loss||-109||13 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3
This line has been adjusted too much for the Blazers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings even with this situation.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Kings, who have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. But Sacramento just lost outright to the short-handed 76ers 108-125 as 5.5-point home favorites. And I just can’t see them beating the Blazers on the road tonight.
Portland is 12-0 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Sacramento with 10 of those wins coming by 4 points or more. Those 12 wins have come by an average of 9.9 points pre game as well. The Kings haven’t won in Portland since 2012. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|03-07-20||Rockets v. Hornets +8.5||Top||99-108||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8.5
The Charlotte Hornets have been grossly undervalued for weeks. They continue to be today as 8.5-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets.
The Hornets are 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Three of those losses came to the Bucks by 8, Spurs by 1 and Nuggets by 2. They have been dcompetitive in basically every games and even pulled four road upsets over the Pistons, Timberwolves, Bulls and Raptors.
The Rockets are going to be without both Russell Westbrook (27.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.0 APG) and Eric Gordon (14.5 PPG) tonight. That’s a lot of production to be missing for a team that has to go on the road and win by 9-plus points to beat us.
Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. They just lost outright as 10-point favorites at New York in their last road game. Roll with the Hornets Saturday.
|03-06-20||Bucks v. Lakers -1||Top||103-113||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1
The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from a 104-111 road loss at the Milwaukee Bucks in their first meeting this season. This is a huge statement game for them and one I expect them to win at home, where they are 22-7 SU this season.
The Lakers have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall. They come in fresh and ready to go working on two days’ rest after last playing on Tuesday night. The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days with a ton of travel in between.
The Bucks lost at Miami 89-105 as 4.5-point favorites in their last road game. So they are beatable on the highway, and I look for the Lakers to have their revenge tonight at home.
The Lakers are 14-4 ATS after winning three of their last four games this season. Milwaukee is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. Bet the Lakers Friday.
|03-06-20||Blazers -3.5 v. Suns||117-127||Loss||-105||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are 3.5 games back of the 8th seed in the West and in need of a big finish to make the playoffs. I know we’ll get a big effort from the Blazers moving forward because of it.
I was on the Blazers in Damian Lillard’s return Wednesday when they crushed Washington 125-104 at home. And I’ll back them again here against the Phoenix Suns, a team they have owned in going 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.
The Suns are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming at home and three of them by 9 points or more. Making matters worse for the Suns are injuries to Kelly Oubre Jr, DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Johnson that will keep all three out of the lineup tonight. That’s an average of 45.8 points per game they will be missing.
Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in home games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven ATS this season. The Suns are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games overall. Phoenix is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%. Take the Blazers Friday.
|03-06-20||Hawks +3 v. Wizards||112-118||Loss||-115||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3
Atlanta head coach Lloyd Pierce called out his team for their lack of effort in an 88-127 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. They’ve had three days off since, so look for a big effort from them tonight when they visit the Washington Wizards.
While it’s a great spot for the Hawks, it’s a terrible one for the Wizards. They return home from a tough four-game road trip on West, and I like to fade teams when they return home from long road trips. It will be the 3rd game in 4 days and the 8th game in 13 days for the Wizards.
Atlanta is 47-20 ATS in its last 67 games off a home loss by 10 points or more. Washington is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games after playing three consecutive road games. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days’ rest. Roll with the Hawks Friday.
|03-05-20||Clippers +1 v. Rockets||120-105||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +1
The Los Angeles Clippers are making their case as being the best team in the NBA when healthy. And since they’ve been healthy the last few weeks, they’ve been on a roll in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by a whopping 17.4 points per game.
Now, the Clippers want revenge after losing two of their first three meetings this season with the Rockets. They want to square the season series, and I love their chances against this small ball Rockets lineup that has been out-rebounded in 14 straight games.
The Rockets are coming off an ugly 123-125 road loss to the New York Knicks as 10-point favorites. They found themselves down as many as 21 points in that game, and giving up offensive rebounds was a big culprit. The Clippers rank 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage.
The Clippers are 26-14 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. Doc Rivers is 65-41 ATS when revenging a SU loss as a favorite as the coach of the Clippers. The Rockets have given up 104 or more points in 28 straight games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.
|03-04-20||Wizards v. Blazers -7.5||Top||104-125||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -7.5
This is an important time for the Portland Trail Blazers. They made the Western Conference Finals last season and now find themselves 3.5 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the West. It’s now or never for the Blazers.
Injuries have been a big reason for their poor season thus far, but they get Damian Lillard back from a seven-game absence tonight. They have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games overall with most of those on the road. But now they get seven of their next eight at home and a chance to make some serious headway.
After beating the Magic 130-107 as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday, the Blazers return home looking to continue their solid play. They host a tired Wizards team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Bradley Beal played 38 minutes in a 126-133 shooting loss at Sacramento last night. He and the Wizards won’t have much left in the tank tonight.
Washington is 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 9-24 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last two years. Portland won 122-103 at Washington as identical 7.5-point road favorites in their first meeting this season. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.
|03-04-20||Magic +7 v. Heat||113-116||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7
This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Orlando Magic, who have lost two straight coming in including a shocking 107-130 home loss to Portland as 6.5-point favorites. Aaron Gordon did not play in that game and there’s a good chance he returns tonight.
It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the Miami Heat, who have won three straight and are coming off a shocking 105-89 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 4.5-point dogs. The Bucks haven’t been beaten many times this season, so it’s only human nature for the Heat to have an emotional letdown off that huge win.
The Magic were playing very well prior to that loss to the Blazers. They have gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. This will be their 4th and final meeting with the Heat, and after losing two of the first three, they will be motivated to square the season series at two games apiece.
Miami is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home win. The Heat are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games off a blowout win by 15 points or more. Orlando is 12-3 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Miami. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|03-03-20||Raptors -4 v. Suns||Top||123-114||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4
The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a win tonight. They have lost three straight coming in with two of those losses to the Nuggets and Bucks. They haven’t lost four straight all season, and they aren’t about to tonight.
The Raptors had gone 17-1 SU in their previous 18 games prior to this three-game losing streak. They have been playing without Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka during this skid, which has something to do with it. But both have a chance to return tonight. Even if they don’t, they’re deep enough to beat the Suns here.
Phoenix is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with three straight home losses to the Clippers by 10, the Pistons as 9-point favorites and the Warriors by 16 as 11-point favorites. They aren’t playing well at all right now, and they recently lost Kelly Oubre Jr. to a season-ending knee injury.
The Raptors are 5-0 SU in their last four meetings with the Suns with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more. Toronto is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games playing on one days’ rest. Phoenix is 18-37-2 ATS in its last 57 games playing on two days’ rest. The Suns are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage above 60%. The Suns are 2-14 ATS off a division loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|03-02-20||Rockets v. Knicks +10.5||123-125||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10.5
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Houston Rockets tonight. The Rockets are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and coming off a huge overtime win at Boston on Sunday. They won’t be able to get up for the Knicks tonight.
That’s especially the case considering the Rockets just beat the Knicks 123-112 at home as 13.5-point favorites on February 24th. Now the Knicks get their shot at revenge just a week later. And after only losing by 11 on the road, I have no doubt they can stay within single-digits at home in the rematch.
The Knicks have quietly been a very profitable team to back thus far in 2020. New York has gone 10-6-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall. They have gone 6-3 ATS at home during this stretch including home losses to the Lakers, Raptors and 76ers by 8, 6 and 3 points, respectively.
New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season. The Rockets are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest. New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (New York) - in non-conference games, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 65-29 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Monday.
|03-02-20||Jazz -8.5 v. Cavs||Top||126-113||Win||100||8 h 60 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8.5
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Utah Jazz tonight. They are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games which have all come since the All-Star Break. Now they get a team they can handle here in the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cleveland played well in its first few games under interim coach JB Bickerstaff. But the Cavaliers have come back down to reality in their last two, losing by 12 on the road to the Pelicans and by 9 at home to the Pacers. I expect them to suffer a double-digit loss tonight.
Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries since the All-Star Break. They will be without Tristan Thompson, Darius Garland, Dante Exum and Alfonzo McKinnie tonight. Those four combine to average 33.3 points per game so that’s a lot of production they’ll be missing. Conversely, the Jazz are fully healthy. They have won their last two meetings with the Cavaliers by 16 points at home and by 26 points on the road.
The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Utah is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a win. The Jazz are 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|03-01-20||Lakers v. Pelicans +2.5||Top||122-114||Loss||-105||10 h 4 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are 19-10 SU & 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. That includes 9-4 SU in their last 13 games with their only losses coming to the Rockets, Bucks, Thunder & Lakers.
Now the Pelicans want revenge from three losses already to the Lakers this season. They don’t want to get swept, and it’s worth noting that they were competitive in all three losses as they all came by 10 points or less. And they just played on February 25th in Los Angeles so New Orleans doesn’t have to wait long for this revenge opportunity.
While the Pelicans are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They lost 88-105 in Memphis last night as 11-point favorites. And don’t be surprised if LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis sits tonight as both are battling through injury.
The Lakers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. The Pelicans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with the Lakers. Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.
|02-29-20||Magic v. Spurs -3||Top||113-114||Loss||-109||10 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3
The Orlando Magic just played in a taxing 136-125 home win over the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves last night. Now the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days while having to travel to San Antonio overnight.
The Spurs come in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NBA in the Thunder and Mavericks. And they had beaten the Jazz on the road as 7-point dogs and Thunder as 8-point dogs outright in their previous two games. They finally get a break in the schedule here and will take advantage.
While the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days, the Spurs are rested and ready to go. San Antonio comes in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday. They also will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. I’ll gladly side with the fresher, more motivated team tonight.
The Magic are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest. Orlando is 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season. San Antonio is 35-10 ATS revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 11-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years. The Magic are 0-9 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots in the 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
|02-29-20||Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 226.5||88-105||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 226.5
The Memphis Grizzlies just lost both Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.9 PPG) and Brandon Clark (12.0 PPG) to injuries. Their offense has really faltered without these two scoring 101 points against Sacramento, 112 against Houston and 97 against the Clippers in their last three games, respectively.
The Lakers have some injuries of their own that will hamper them offensively. LeBron James (25.5 PPG) missed last game and is highly questionable with a groin injury. Anthony Davis (26.6 PPG) is trying to play through an elbow injury, and Danny Green (8.4 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury.
These teams just played on February 21st just over a week ago in a 117-105 home win for the Lakers and 222 combined points. So they are very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors defense. Jackson Jr. and Clarke both played in that game, as did James and Green, and there’s a good chance none of those four will play in the rematch.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Memphis) - off four or more consecutive losses against an opponent that is off four or more consecutive wins are 72-34 (67.9%) since 1996. Memphis is 12-3 UNDER off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.
The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with 222 or fewer combined points in all seven games and an average of just 209 points per game, which is 17.5 points less than this 226.5-point total. The UNDER is 5-0 in Lakers last five vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine home games. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|02-28-20||Nuggets v. Clippers -5.5||103-132||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Clippers voiced their frustration over a recent season-high three game losing streak. They have responded well by going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games since with a 27-point home win over Memphis and a 10-point road win at Phoenix.
The Clippers are 23-6 at home this season and should be bigger favorites over the Nuggets tonight. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Clippers beat the Nuggets 132-111 in their last home meeting with the Nuggets.
Denver is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off two straight blowout home wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in Minnesota by 12 and Detroit by 17. They lost their last road game at Oklahoma City by 12 and will get worked on the road here by the Clippers, who are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.
Denver is 8-22 ATS in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 4-14 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scores 110 or more points this season. The favorite is 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Clippers Friday.
|02-28-20||Mavs v. Heat -2.5||Top||118-126||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5
The Miami Heat will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight off two straight upset losses to Cleveland and Minnesota. Look for them to come out playing with a sense of urgency at home tonight.
We are getting the Heat at a value tonight because of those two losses. After all, the Heat are one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 23-4 SU & 18-8-1 ATS at home this season.
Dallas is without Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson and Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Luka Doncic, who is questionable with a thumb injury. I expect Doncic to play, but if he doesn’t the Heat will be a substantial favorite and you’ll be getting a great number.
Miami is 15-2 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Heat are 14-3 ATS vs. Southwest Division opponents over the last two seasons. Miami is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss. Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Heat Friday.
|02-27-20||Lakers v. Warriors +10||Top||116-86||Loss||-105||12 h 13 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10
The Los Angeles Lakers will be without MVP candidate LeBron James tonight after a groin strain suffered against the Pelicans on Tuesday. Asking them to win by double-digits on the road against the Warriors is asking too much without James in the lineup.
We will ’sell high’ on a Lakers team that has won six straight coming in, and ‘buy low’ on a Warriors team that has lost seven straight coming in. But the Warriors are getting healthier as Draymond Green is expected to play tonight, and Andrew Wiggins is getting accustomed to their offense and should only continue to improve moving forward.
Golden State only lost 120-125 at home to the Lakers as 14-point underdogs in their last meeting on February 8th. Now the Warriors get their shot at revenge just a few weeks later here, but they don’t have to contend with James this time around. James had 22 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds in that game.
Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Lakers) - a hot team having won six or seven of their last eight games that wins at least 75% of their games playing a bad team that wins 25% or less of their games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS since 1996. The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Warriors Thursday.
|02-26-20||Celtics v. Jazz -4.5||Top||114-103||Loss||-105||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -4.5
The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping all three games since returning from the All-Star Break. I know we’re going to get a max effort out of them tonight, so I’m willing to lay the short number at home against the Celtics.
Boston is in one of the toughest spots in the NBA. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game since the All-Star Break. I have to believe they are out of gas, and playing in altitude in Utah makes it even tougher.
The Jazz are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with the three wins all coming by 8 points or more. The Celtics will be without their best player in Kemba Walker once again tonight, while the Jazz are fully healthy coming into this one.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - off three straight ATS wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. Utah is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite. The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|02-26-20||Clippers -6.5 v. Suns||102-92||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5
The Clippers had lost three straight for the first time all season before bouncing back with a 27-point win over Memphis. They made many comments leading into that game that the time was now to get it together. I look for them to stay focused at Phoenix tonight and take care of business.
While we will ‘buy low’ on the Clippers after dropping three of four, we’ll ’sell high’ on the Suns after winning three of their last four. Two of the wins came against the Bulls and Warriors, but they are coming off a shocking 20-point win at struggling Utah as 8.5-point dogs. That result has them overvalued. The Suns will be without Kelly Oubre Jr. tonight with a knee injury as well.
The Clippers simply own the Suns. Los Angeles is 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 meetings with the Suns, winning those 13 games by an average of 15.5 points per game. All things considered, this is a very short number for the Clippers to be laying tonight.
Plays against underdogs (Phoenix) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent that went under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Los Angeles is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a road favorite. Phoenix is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. Take the Clippers Wednesday.
|02-25-20||Bucks v. Raptors +1||Top||108-97||Loss||-109||9 h 9 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Raptors TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto +1
The Toronto Raptors are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games overall and coming off a 46-point home win over the Pacers. And the amount of disrespect they are getting tonight as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks is alarming.
The Bucks are in a terrible spot. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing overtime to beat the Wizards 137-134 on the road last night as 12.5-point favorites. It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Bucks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rest a couple starters.
Milwaukee is going to have a hard time getting motivated night in and night out here down the stretch because they basically already have the No. 1 seed locked up. The motivation for the Raptors is obvious as they are trying to fend off the Celtics, Heat and 76ers for the No. 2 seed.
Toronto is a perfect 12-0 ATS in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last three seasons. Milwaukee is 13-27 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games. Toronto is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.
|02-24-20||Suns v. Jazz -8||131-111||Loss||-105||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8
The Utah Jazz were upset at home by both the Spurs and Rockets in a back-to-back situation in their first two games back from the All-Star Break. It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight against the Phoenix Suns, so I know we are going to get an ‘A’ effort from them.
The Suns are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Two of their wins came by single-digits against the Warriors and Bulls, which may be the two worst teams in the entire NBA right now. Their seven losses came by an average of 15.1 points per game, so they’ve rarely even been competitive.
The Jazz simply own the Suns. Utah is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Phoenix with seven wins by double-digits. They have won those eight games by an average of a whopping 21.3 points per game. So laying 8 points here is a real discount.
The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss. Roll with the Jazz Monday.
|02-24-20||Hawks +8 v. 76ers||112-129||Loss||-105||8 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +8
The Atlanta Hawks have come out of the All-Star Break going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with home wins over Miami and Dallas, two of the best teams in the NBA. Now they have their sights set on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
The 76ers are in a world of hurt right now. They are without two of their three best players in Ben Simmons (16.7 PPG, 8.2 APG, 7.8 RPG) and Tobias Harris (18.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG). They cannot be 8-point favorites over the Hawks without these two.
Atlanta is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Philadelphia with its only loss coming by two points, 103-105. The Hawks were underdogs in all five games and pulled four outright upsets. They don’t even need to win SU for us to get a win here, they just have to stay within 8 points, which is very likely.
The Hawks are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Philadelphia. The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Take the Hawks Monday.
|02-23-20||Wizards -2 v. Bulls||117-126||Loss||-107||9 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2
The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after falling to the Suns 104-112 at home last night. That followed up a 93-103 home loss to the Hornets. And now the Wizards will take their turn today.
The Bulls have lost eight straight games and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are a mash unit right now playing without Markkanen, Dunn, Porter Jr., Hutchison, Kornet and Valentine. They could get Wendell Carter Jr. back today, but it won’t matter.
The Wizards continue to show up every night. They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall, which includes their 126-114 home win over Bulls going into the break. They want to even the season series after losing the first two meetings to Chicago this season.
Chicago is 2-13 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Chicago is 4-17 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last two years. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Bulls are 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games, including 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Wizards Sunday.
|02-23-20||Celtics v. Lakers -6.5||Top||112-114||Loss||-110||5 h 26 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -6.5
The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from their worst loss this season. They lost 107-139 in Boston on January 20th in a complete no shot. The Celtics shot 55.9% as a team and 47.1% from 3-point range while making 16 3-pointers. That’s not going to happen again.
While the Lakers are fully healthy for the rematch, the Celtics will be without their leader in Kemba Walker, who averages 21.8 points and 5.0 assists per game this season. I don’t give the Celtics much of a chance of winning this game without Walker.
The Lakers were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and now are only 6.5-point home favorites in the rematch. That’s only a 4-point adjustment, which isn’t enough for home-court advantage changing hands. The Celtics are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Celtics because of it.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|02-22-20||Mavs v. Hawks +6||Top||107-111||Win||100||22 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6
This is a great spot to fade the Dallas Mavericks tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hawks, who had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.
Atlanta has pulled some impressive home upsets and hung with some very good teams at home in the 2nd half of the season. They are coming off a 129-124 upset win over Miami as 6-point home dogs. They upset the Clippers as 5-point dogs and the 76ers as 6-point dogs. They only lost by 5 to Toronto and by 8 to Boston. In fact, in their last 12 home games, they have either won outright or lost by single-digits in 11 of them.
Atlanta will also be revenge-minded tonight after losing earlier this month at Dallas 100-123. The Hawks haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home. And they get a shot at revenge here in Atlanta just a few weeks later.
The Hawks own the Mavericks, going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Atlanta is 13-5 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Hawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Mavericks are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta. Roll with the Hawks Saturday.
|02-21-20||Spurs v. Jazz OVER 222.5||Top||113-104||Loss||-109||10 h 55 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Jazz OVER 222.5
The Spurs have been one of the best ‘OVER’ teams in the NBA this season. They are 33-20-1 to the OVER on the year. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA ranking 24th in defensive efficiency. They are giving up 116.4 points per game on the road this year.
The Jazz are a much improved offensive team this season. They have scored 114 points or more in four straight games and 109 or more in 16 of their last 19 games overall. But they have allowed 101 or more points in nine of their last 10 games coming in.
The Spurs beat the Jazz 127-120 at home for 247 combined points in their lone meeting this season on January 29th. The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Expect more of the same here tonight.
The Spurs are 9-0 OVER in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season. The OVER is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 games playing on 3 or more days’ rest. The OVER is 11-5 in Jazz last 16 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.