|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-04-23||Bengals v. Jaguars -7||Top||34-31||Loss||-115||190 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Jaguars ESPN No-Brainer on Jacksonville -7
BONUS TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 8-3 this season and a legitimate contender for the top seed in the AFC. They have gotten their offense going coming out of the bye scoring 34 points in a 34-14 win over the Titans at home and then 24 points in a 24-21 road win at Houston. They also had 445 total yards on the Texans and should have scored more, getting stopped at the 1-yard line right before halftime and also missing a FG.
Now the Jaguars will hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the entire NFL right now in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are allowing 389.0 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season. They just allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers to top 400 yards, which is remarkable considering Pittsburgh had gone 58 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.
That was a very misleading final against the Steelers that is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Steelers outgained the Bengals 421 to 222, or by 199 total yards. They only won 16-10 and should have won by more. They dropped a wide open TD among other fluky mistakes.
The Bengals allowed 34 points and 405 yards to the Ravens the week prior and 30 points and 544 yards to the Texans the week before. The Jaguars will be able to name their number on this soft Cincinnati defense, and the Bengals won't be able to keep up without Joe Burrow. It was an ugly showing for Jake Browning in his first start in place of Burrow as he led the Bengals to just 222 total yards and 10 points. It won't go any better against one of the top defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who allow just 20.5 points per game and 342.4 yards per game this season.
Jacksonville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread in three of its last four games. The Bengals are 1-25 SU in road-neutral night games over the last 25 years. They are on a 16-game losing streak in this spot with their last win in Philadelphia in 2012. Zac Taylor is 4-20 SU as a head coach of the Bengals without Joe Burrow as his QB.
Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Jaguars Monday.
|12-03-23||49ers v. Eagles||Top||42-19||Win||100||163 h 24 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco PK
I love the spot for the San Francisco 49ers this week. They have extra rest after playing last Thursday while also recently getting a bye. They are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do when healthy, going 3-0 since the bye while outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 92-30, or by an average of over 20 pints per game.
Now the 49ers have their sights set on revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Brock Purdy got hurt in the first half of that game against the Eagles and it really changed the game. To a man, the 49ers believe they would have won that game if he finished the game healthy. Now they'll be out to prove it.
The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet. They just went to OT against the Bills last week in a downpour. They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior. And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior. So this will be their 4th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL, and they have a rematch with the Cowboys on deck next week.
The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out. They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills last week. They gave up 505 total yards to the Bills last week. They lost DT Fletcher Cox and LB Zach Cunningham to injury in that game, and both are very questionable to play this week and missed practice on Wednesday. OT Lane Johnson is one of their most important players and is questionable to play as well.
The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until last week. Well the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks. They beat the Commanders four games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys three games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs two games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills last week despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.
As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in four consecutive games and won them all. They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score. I think their luck runs out this week against a 49ers team that wants it more, is the better team and is the much healthier team.
The 49ers have elite numbers this season scoring 28.2 points per game and allowing 15.5 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per gmae. They are outgaining opponents by 91 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.5 yards per play on the season. The Eagles are now only outgaining opponnets by 23 yards per game and 0.2 yards per play. They are much closer to an average team than their record would indicate simply due to their luck in close games.
The 49ers are 8-0 when they've had Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams on the field at the same time this season with all eight wins coming by 7 points or more and seven of those eight wins by 13 points or more. They improve to 9-0 with Samuel and Williams on the field this week. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|12-03-23||Broncos v. Texans OVER 45||17-22||Loss||-110||148 h 37 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos/Texans OVER 45
It has taken a couple miracles to keep the last two Houston games under the total. I know because I've been on the over in both of them, and both losses were bad beats. I think there's value in the OVER in a Houston game this week as a result.
Houston and Arizona scored 31 combined points in the 1st half two weeks ago. But they only had 6 points after halftime due to CJ Stroud throwing three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line, and the Cardinals turning it over on downs three times in Arizona territory.
Last week, Houston and Jacksonville combined for over 800 yards of offense. But there were three missed FG's and the Jaguars were stopped at the 1-yard line to finish on 45 combined points and under the closing 48-point total. I have to think Houston is going to start cashing in more scoring opportunities, and Denver will get their fair share of points this week as well.
CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now. The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game. Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt. He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday. They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive. They should have all four this week.
Russell Wilson is clearly more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense now than he was at the beginning of the season. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games and an average of 24.5 points per game during this stretch despite facing four good defenses in the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns. This Houston defense that ha s allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four is actually a big step down in competition for Wilson and company. But the Texans will get their points, and Wilson will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout in perfect conditions inside the dome in Houston.
I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for. The Broncos have benefited from forcing a total of 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak. But the season-long stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Broncos allow 25.5 points per game, 388.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, with the latter two numbers being the worst marks in the league.
Plays on the OVER on any team (Houston) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-03-23||Cardinals v. Steelers -5.5||24-10||Loss||-110||91 h 54 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers went 58 games in a row without gaining 400 yards. It spanned from Matt Canada's first game as offensive coordinator to his last. Fittingly, Canada was fired last week, and the Steelers topped 400 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals. They used the middle of the field a lot more with TE Pat Freirmuth and got their running game going, which has quietly been dominant in recent weeks.
The Steelers have rushed for at least 153 yards in four consecutive games and an average of 174 yards per game to take some pressure off Kenny Pickett. He had one of the best games of his career against the Bengals, going 24-of-33 passing for 278 yards without an interception in the win. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 200 yards and should have won by more as it was a misleading final in a 16-10 win. I think that misleading final is keeping this line shorter than it should be.
Now the Steelers get to go up against a similarly poor defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week. The Cardinals gave up 419 yards to the Texans two weeks ago and 37 points and 457 total yards to the Rams last week. They should have allowed more points to the Texans as CJ Stroud threw three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line to take points off the board. That was a misleading final and they were fortunate to cover the 5.5-point spread in a 5-point loss.
The Steelers should be able to run the ball at will against an Arizona defense that allows 140 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. They gave up 228 rushing yards to the Rams last week and have allowed at least 111 rushing yards in seven consecutive games. They just lost their top LB in Kyzir White to a season-ending injury against the Texans and have a ton more injuries that are hampering them defensively.
The offense doesn't look any better with Kyler Murray at QB than it did with Josh Dobbs. They managed just 16 points against the Texans two weeks ago and 14 points against the Rams last week. Three key playmakers in WR Marquise Brown, WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride all missed practice Wednesday and are questionable. Speaking of questionable, the Cardinals have questionable motivation the rest of the way and would be better off trying to tank for a top pick. They may do so without even trying as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Steelers have a lot more to play for and are trying to win a division title. They trail the Ravens by just one game in the division and have the tiebreaker over them. They have five straight very winnable games coming up and want to take advantage. I think with new life on offense and an already dominant defense, the sky is the limit for this team. Plus, they should get S Minkah Fitzpatrick back from injury as he returned to practice this week. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Mike Tomlin does a good job of getting his players to take every game seriously the later in the season it gets. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|12-03-23||Dolphins v. Commanders OVER 49||45-15||Win||100||91 h 42 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49
The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team. They probably currently have the worst defense in the NFL after trading away two of their best defensive linemen in Sweat to the Bears and Young to the 49ers. They also have a ton of injuries in the secondary that are making them dreadful on that end right now.
Indeed, the Commanders have allowed 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the Giants and 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys in their last three games coming in. It's safe to say this No. 1 ranked Miami offense is going to hang a big number on them this week.
Miami averages 30.8 points per game, 430.5 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league. They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and now they get their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury this week. He averages 11.8 yards per carry with 461 yards and 5 TD. He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.
The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog last week in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets. Sam Howell has been one of the most impressive rookies in the NFL for Washington and actually leads the league in passing yards.
Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions this season while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 278.3 passing yards per game. He has also rushed for 222 yards and three TD while averaging 6.2 per carry. He is a walking turnover though, so expect some easy scores by the Dolphins due to those turnovers. But Howell will keep coming, and that's what you need when backing an OVER is the trailing team capable of scoring quickly in comeback mode. We have that here on both sides.
Miami is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% or higher completions. Mike McDaniel is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of the Dolphins. Ron Rivera is 30-12 OVER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-03-23||Lions v. Saints OVER 44.5||Top||33-28||Win||100||160 h 53 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Saints OVER 44.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a very leaky defense. This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions, so I jumped on this OVER 44.5 early in the week when the lines came out.
In their last four games the Lions scored 26 points and had 486 total yards against the Raiders, scored 41 points and had 533 yards against the Chargers, scored 31 points and had 338 yards against the Bears and scored 22 points and had 464 yards against the Packers. They are pretty much fully healthy on offense and showing how good they can be when that's the case.
But the Lions have been a disaster on defense over the last three weeks. They have allowed 31.0 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing the Bears, Packers and Chargers, so it's not like they have faced any elite offenses. They lost LB Alex Anzalone against the Packers and he is doubtful to play Sunday. Even the New Orleans Saints are going to hang a big number on the Lions this week.
Injuries have really decimated this New Orleans defense. They were already without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore, then they lost DE Cameron Jordan last week against the Falcons and he is their best defensive lineman. Jordan is very questionable to play in this game after not practicing all week. S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner have both been ruled out as well.
The Saints allowed 27 points and 388 total yards to a mediocre Vikings offense and 24 points and 396 total yards to a mediocre Falcons offense in their last two games. They have now allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against the Bears, who turned it over five times or would have scored more.
The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of hose eight games. The OVER is 3-2 in Saints last five games overall with at least 39 combined points in all five, and 46 or more combined points in three of the five. It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in New Orleans. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-02-23||Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 49||Top||6-16||Win||100||99 h 30 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Florida State ACC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49
Florida State losing star QB Jordan Travis in a meaningless game against North Alabama is one of the biggest tragedies in college football this season. They were a legit playoff contender with him, but now they may not make it even if they beat Louisville. I don't know if they are going to win the game, but I do know they won't be very good on offense against Louisville with backup QB Tate Rodemaker.
We got to see how they are going to play moving forward with him in a 24-15 win over Florida in an absolute defensive battle last week. That's a Florida team with a terrible defense, too. The Seminoles managed just 224 total yards against Florida while limiting the Gators to 232 yards. They shortened the game running just 57 offensive snaps while Florida ran only 60.
Florida State is going to have to lean on a defense that has been one of the best in the country this season. The Seminoles allow just 16.8 points per game, 316 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. They will be up against a Louisville team that also relies heavily on defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, 317 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.
The Seminoles aren't going to let Rodemaker lose the game for them. They are going to try and run the football. Well, the Cardinals are great against the run, allowing 99 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season. Louisville wants to throw the football, and FSU is great against the pass, allowing just 47.7% completions, 175 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.
There is better than a 50% chance of rain at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC for this one that could also help keep this one UNDER the total. When the stakes are this high, I usually look to back the UNDER, and this matchup definitely fits the bill.
Florida State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher, and 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt. Louisville is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. They will be much more careful with the ball this week after a fluky 38-31 loss to Kentucky in which turnovers led to easy scores as they held the Wildcats to just 293 total yards for the game. That misleading final also has this total inflated this week. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-23||Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 55||Top||21-49||Win||100||91 h 16 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas OVER 55
Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team. They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 48 or more combined points in all nine, and 58 or more combined points in six of those. So this total of 55 is pretty low for a game involving the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games. They average 33.4 points per game, 471.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in. But they have not been good defensively, allowing 29.7 points per game, 446.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play in Big 12 action this season.
The Texas Longhorns have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and average 35.4 points per game, 478.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play. Those numbers would be even better if they didn't lose QB Quinn Ewers for 2.5 games against Houston, BYU and Kansas State.
Each of the last five meetings between Oklahoma State and Texas have seen 56 or more combined points. They have gone for 75, 56, 75, 66 and 73 combined points in the last five meetings. As you can see, these games are sailing well OVER this 55-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout too inside the dome at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-23||Oklahoma State +15 v. Texas||Top||21-49||Loss||-110||91 h 16 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +15
Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and earned its way into the Big 12 Championship. They are playing on house money now and would love nothing more than to ruin Texas' final season in the Big 12. They pretty much ruined it for Oklahoma by upsetting them, and now they take their shot at the Longhorns.
This turnaround started with continuity at QB with Alan Bowman and the emergence of RB Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 TD while averaging 6.4 per carry this season. Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games. They average 33.4 points per game, 471-7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in. That letdown was expected.
But the Cowboys have bounced back nicely since and handled their business with a 43-30 road win as 7-point favorites at Houston with 514 total yards and a 40-34 (OT) win over BYU in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgained BYU 503 to 327, or by 176 total yards. But BYU took advantage of some early turnovers and jumped out to a 24-6 lead. Oklahoma State could have folded, instead they fought back to take the lead with all the pressure on them of trying to win the game to get to the Big 12 title game. They fell behind in the 1st OT, but then scored two touchdowns in a row to come up clutch and the defense held in the 2nd OT. They have to be feeling like they can overcome anything after that comeback, which has been the story of their season.
Texas is overvalued off the blowout win over Texas Tech last week. But nothing has come easy for the Longhorns outside of that home win plus another home win over BYU down the stretch. In fact, five of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, and if not for a blocked PAT returned for a TD in the 10-point win over Iowa State, it would be five games decided by 7 points or fewer. That includes narrows road wins over Houston by 7 and TCU by 3, two of the worst teams in the Big 12. They have been great at home but it has been a different story on the road, and this game will be played on a neutral at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State have been decided by 8 points or less. In fact, Oklahoma State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings as underdogs with three outright upsets. Texas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 7 points in any of the last eight meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the Cowboys pertaining to this inflated 15-point spread.
Speaking of 8-0 systems, Oklahoma State is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season and actually outscoring these teams by 4.4 points per game on average. Mike Gundy has a way of getting his teams to play up to their level of their competition. The Longhorns have all the pressure on them here of trying to win the Big 12 and make the four-team playoff. I'll gladly side with the Cowboys playing with nothing to lose. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.
|12-01-23||New Mexico State +10.5 v. Liberty||Top||35-49||Loss||-110||74 h 16 m||Show|
20* New Mexico State/Liberty C-USA Championship No-Brainer on New Mexico State +10.5
The New Mexico State Aggies are 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Hawaii. They have pulled off five outright upsets as underdogs during this stretch, including a 31-10 win at Auburn as 25-point dogs. They avoided the letdown last week and beat Jacksonville State 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs, which was just as impressive.
Now the Aggies are once again catching too many points against Liberty. They are a completely different team than the one that lost 33-17 at Liberty as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season. That was a 23-17 game at halftime and got out of hand after intermission. Liberty controlled the ball with 38 minutes compared to 22 for New Mexico State and ran 27 more plays. It was actually pretty close from a yards per play perspective. Liberty averaged 6.8 yards per play in that game while New Mexico State averaged 6.8 yards per play as well.
Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 61.2% of his passes with a 23-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 scores on 5.3 per carry. Pavia gives them a chance to win every game he plays in, and he and the Aggies here are a dangerous, revenge-minded team in this game. Liberty has all the pressure on them trying to cap off an unbeaten season and possibly a New Year's 6 Bowl. New Mexico State is playing on house money.
I think the Aggies can make the adjustments to stop the run this time around by stacking the box. New Mexico State's defensive line has played much better down the stretch. They allow 127 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season. They held Auburn to 65 rushing yards on 28 attempts and Jacksonville State to 85 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their last two games. That's really impressive when you consider Jacksonville State ranks 3rd in the country averaging 231.8 rushing yards per game and Auburn ranks 15th at 196.3 rushing yards per game. It's safe to say the Aggies are ready to stop the run. Bet New Mexico State Friday.
|11-30-23||Seahawks v. Cowboys -7||Top||35-41||Loss||-110||95 h 13 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -7
FREE TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.
The Dallas Cowboys are bullies. They beat up on bad teams and cannot seem to get over the hump against good teams. While the Seattle Seahawks are 6-5 this season and some would consider them a good team, I consider them a bad team in their current form and another team that the Cowboys are going to beat up on.
The Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with a ridiculous seven wins by 20 points or more. That includes 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season where they are scoring 41.0 points per game and allowing just 12.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 29.0 points per game.
The Cowboys just blasted the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving Night while the Seahawks were losing 31-13 at home to the 49ers despite getting a Pick 6 in that game for their lone touchdown. Their offense didn't score and has been broken the last two weeks, also managing just 16 points in a loss to the Rams. They have a recent common opponent in the Commanders. While the Cowboys won by 35, the Seahawks needed a last-second FG to beat Washington three weeks ago.
The Cowboys won't be taking the Seahawks lightly because they know there's a good chance that if they win this game and the Eagles lose to the 49ers this week, they'll be playing the Eagles for first place in the NFC East next week. The Seahawks have struggled when they have stepped up in class recently with a 37-3 loss at Baltimore and that 31-13 loss to San Francisco. Dallas is just a notch below those two teams, but it's close.
Geno Smith isn't healthy and is a below average QB as it is, and he and the Seahawks will get exposed again this week. Smith averages under 4 yards per attempt against man-to-man defense and over 8 yards per attempt against zone this season. Dallas runs as much man-to-man defense as any team in the NFL.
Dallas is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Dak Prescott is 30-11-1 ATS in his last 42 starts as a favorite of 6 points or more. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a division game, so they don't let down in these spots. Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-27-23||Bears +3.5 v. Vikings||Top||12-10||Win||100||119 h 5 m||Show|
20* Bears/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5
The Chicago Bears just got Justin Fields back last week and he makes all the difference for them. They blew a double-digit lead in the final four minutes to the Lions in a 26-31 defeat as 8-point underdogs on the road. The fact that they took the Lions to the wire says all you need to know about this team's potential.
Fields went 16-of-23 passing for 169 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 104 yards on 18 attempts. He is so dynamic with his ability to run, and he has formed a great chemistry with DJ Moore on the outside. The Bears will have no problem getting back up off the mat from that tough loss to the Lions considering this is a Monday Night Football game on National TV against another division opponnent in the Bears.
But the biggest reason the Bears are undervalued right now is their improvement on defense over the last several weeks. They have held four of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are allowing just 276.5 yards per game in their last six games, which would rate as one of the top defenses in the entire NFL.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings. They just had their 5-game winning streak come to an end with a 1-point loss at Denver. It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they controlled the game most the way but blew it late. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, so you are definitely paying a tax on them now.
The Bears want revenge from a 19-13 home loss to the Vikings on October 15th in their first meeting this season. Fields got injured in that game which made all the difference. The Bears held the Vikings to just 220 total yards and they still nearly pulled off the upset even with Tyson Bageant having to come in and turning it over three times.
The Bears are probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report. I always look to back healthy teams late in the season and fade teams with a ton of injuries. It's rare for a team to be as healthy as the Bears are this late in the year. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-26-23||Ravens -4 v. Chargers||Top||20-10||Win||100||168 h 45 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -4
The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL if it's not the San Francisco 49ers. Both have the most elite numbers in the NFL right now. The Ravens' last seven losses with Lamar Jackson at QB they had a 4th quarter lead and were 75% or better to win the game. They could be on a crazy unbeaten streak if not for some bad variance late in games.
The down to down success is the most predictable, and the Ravens are thriving this season. They average 27.6 points per game, 366.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play while allowing just 16.1 points per game, 273.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play this season.
The Chargers have a decent offense with Justin Herbert, but he is missing several key weapons and drops have been an issue for his receivers. Herbert is forced every week to try and win shootouts because the defense just cannot get stops. The Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 23.8 points per game, 393.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 31st in the NFL in total defense and 29th in yards per play allowed.
We've seen what the Chargers are defensively when they face a legit offense, like two weeks ago when they allowed 41 points and 533 total yards to the Lions. The Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 earlier this season. Even last week the Chargers allowed the Packers to have a break out offensive performance with 397 total yards against them. The Packers were a previously dead offense but got right against the Chargers.
The Ravens can name their number against this pitiful Chargers defense. They are even worse off now after losing arguably their most important defensive player in Joey Bosa to a foot injury against the Packers. He is doubtful to play this week. The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games now, and if they get to 31 here they are going to cover this 4-point spread. They are going to get to 31 if not more.
The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and there will likely be more Ravens fans attending this game than Chargers fans. The Ravens also have the rest advantage after playing the Bengals on Thursday, so they have three extra days to rest and prepare for the Chargers. John Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. a marginal losing team that wins 40-49% of their games as the coach of Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday night.
|11-26-23||Jaguars v. Texans OVER 45.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||161 h 55 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Texans OVER 45.5
The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team. CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie QB's we've ever seen and he's living up to it week after week. Let's look at their last three weeks. They scored 39 points and had 496 total yards against the Bucs, scored 30 points and had 544 total yards against the Bengals and then they had 419 total yards against the Cardinals last week and would have scored more if not for 3 INT from Stroud inside the Arizona 25-yard line.
But because that game stayed under the total against the Cardinals when it should have gone way over after 31 combined points at halftime, we are getting great value with the OVER this week against the Jaguars. Not one of those passes by Stroud that were intercepted were bad throws, they were mostly just bad breaks off receivers' hands. He had only thrown 2 INT all season up to that point. RB Devin Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. This Houston offense is humming.
The Jaguars just put together their best offensive performance of the season last week against a very good Tennessee defense. They had 34 points and 389 total yards as Trevor Lawrence totaled four touchdowns passing and rushing. The Jaguars are primed for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Houston defense that gave up 37 points to a bad Bucs offense and 27 points to the Bengals. The Texans are pretty banged up defensively right now.
In their first meeting this season. Houston beat Jacksonville 37-17 for 54 combined points that easily topped this 45.5-point total. The Texans had 366 total yards and took their foot off the gas in the 2H with it wrapped up. The Jaguars had 404 total yards and deserved to score more than they did. They will have similar success moving the football in the rematch.
Doug Pederson is 9-1 OVER in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. I love the OVER in this matchup of two teams that are hitting their stride on offense right now. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-26-23||Bucs v. Colts -120||Top||20-27||Win||100||161 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -120
I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts. They are coming off their bye week following a win over the Patriots in Germany that got them to 5-5 on the season and very much in the playoff hunt. They will come out of the bye rested, ready to go and highly motivated to make the playoffs.
Bye weeks are even more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Shane Steichen. The players on this team love this guy because he is a great offensive mind, and I expect the Colts to have plenty of new wrinkles to unleash on the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.
The Bucs had their bye back on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. They are starting to run out of gas and the injuries are starting to pile up. They lost 27-14 at San Francisco last week and now have a lot of traveling to do prior to facing the Colts. They travel from San Francisco back to Tampa and then up to Indianapolis. They won't be nearly as prepared as the Colts for this one.
The injuries are really piling up on defense for the Bucs. They lost three starters that exited the game against the 49ers and didn't return last week. That includes LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean and CB Carlton Davis III. The Colts should feast on this short-handed defense similar to what CJ Stroud and the Texans did to them and Brock Purdy did to them. Purdy went 21-of-25 passing for 305 yards while Stroud went 30-of-42 passing for 443 yards on the Bucs.
The Colts have gotten healthier on defense and are playing better holding their last two opponents to an average 9.5 points per game. They should be even healthier coming out of the bye. Now they get to face one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Bucs, who are scoring 19.2 points per game, averaging 304.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Bucs rank 23rd in scoring, 22nd in total offense and 22nd in yards per play. They allow 6.0 yards per play on defense, so they are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play and legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Colts are undervalued right now because nobody believes they deserve to be 5-5 and .500 on the season. But the numbers clearly tell a different story. The Colts average 5.4 yards per play on offense and 5.4 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even in yards per play margin. YPP is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is, and the Colts have been 0.9 YPP better than the Bucs this season. We're getting the better team in the much better stop off the bye as basically a PK at home. Sign me up. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-25-23||Iowa State +10 v. Kansas State||42-35||Win||100||92 h 31 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +10
As of this writing, Kansas State is still alive for a Big 12 Championship. But by the time this game kicks off at 8:00 EST Saturday night, the Wildcats will realize they have been eliminated. They are tied with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma for 2nd place in the Big 12. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both hold tiebreakers over Kansas State.
Oklahoma hosts TCU on Friday and is a double-digit favorite. Oklahoma State hosts BYU earlier Saturday afternoon and is a 17-point favorite. Both of those teams aren't going to lose, which is what it would take for Kansas State to still be alive by the time this game kicks off. I don't think we get a fully focused Kansas State team as a result, and I think they'll let Iowa State hang around.
The Cyclones are good enough to hang around, anyway. They are 6-5 this season with four of their five losses coming by 10 points or less. It should be four one-score losses but they had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 by Texas last week that turned a 7-point loss into a 10-point loss. I'm still bitter about it because I had Iowa State and they should have covered.
But that loss to Texas provides us extra line value on the Cyclones this week. They are a double-digit dog for only the 2nd time all season with the other coming at Oklahoma. I like how this team is playing down the stretch going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by double-digits, and both losses going down to the wire to Kansas and Texas.
Kansas State was lucky to beat Kansas and their 3rd-string QB last week. They were outgained 396 to 356 by the Jayhawks, or by 40 yards. They gave up 234 rushing yards to Kansas and Iowa State will have success on the ground here, which will open up things for QB Rocco Becht.
The Cyclones want revenge from a 10-9 home loss to Kansas State last year. The Wildcats got one big play and that was it. Kansas State cannot seem to get margin on Iowa State. In fact, the Wildcats haven't won any of their last nine meetings with the Cyclones by more than 10 points. That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 10-point spread. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-25-23||Clemson v. South Carolina +7||Top||16-7||Loss||-105||91 h 56 m||Show|
20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +7
The South Carolina Gamecocks played the toughest schedule in the entire country through their first eight games and the result was a 2-6 start. They have finally gotten a break in the schedule and have made the most of it, winning their last three games to get within one win of bowl eligibility. Now they'll be highly motivated to finish the job here at home against Clemson and pull off the upset to get that coveted 6th victory.
Clemson has also handled its business here down the stretch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. But all three of those games were at home. Now the Tigers have to hit the road where they have struggled this season. Clemson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games with their lone win coming at Syracuse. They lost 28-7 to Duke, 28-20 to Miami and 24-17 at NC State in their other three road games.
South Carolina has played its best football at home. All five of their wins have come at home as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium. Their lone loss came by 2 points to Florida. I fully expect if they lose this game it will not be by more than one score, so there's value with the Gamecocks catching more than a touchdown.
South Carolina pulled the 31-30 upset as 14-point road dogs at Clemson last season. Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards in the win and will have another big game here. Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (South Carolina) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet South Carolina Saturday.
|11-25-23||Washington State +16.5 v. Washington||Top||21-24||Win||100||87 h 26 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State +16.5
The whole world bet against Washington last week and lost with Oregon State. Now is the time to fade Washington after such a big win over the Beavers when everyone was picking against them. This is a flat spot for them off the Oregon State win and with Oregon on deck in the Pac-12 Championship since they already clinched.
At the very least, it's going to be tough for Washington to get margin and pull away from Washington State enough to cover this lofty 16.5-point spread. The Huskies haven't been getting margin on anyone of late. In fact, each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. That includes games against Stanford (42-33) and Arizona State (15-7), two of the worst teams in the Pac-12.
This is the National Championship Game for Washington State. The Cougars will put everything into winning this game against their hated rivals. They come in with a ton of confidence after blasting Colorado 56-14 on Friday night last week, so they get an extra day to rest and prepare for this one.
Getting margin on the Cougars has been very difficult for their opponents. Despite their 5-6 record, the Cougars only have one loss by more than 14 points this season. They gave Oregon all they wanted in a 24-38 road loss as 19.5-point road underdogs, proving they can play with anyone as Oregon is looked at as the best team in the Pac-12. They know they can play with Washington, too.
The Cougars will never be out of this game with an offense that puts up 32.6 points per game, 6.0 yards per play and 338 passing yards per game and 8.1 per attempt. Washington has allowed over 300 passing yards on three occasions this season and allows 260 passing yards per game. They struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Washington State QB Cam Ward will keep his team in this game for four quarters. He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 3,415 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for eight scores on the ground. Bet Washington State Saturday.
|11-25-23||Georgia State v. Old Dominion -2.5||24-25||Loss||-110||85 h 26 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Old Dominion -2.5
Old Dominion has battled to get to 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility. They just went on the road and upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point dogs last week. Now they are back home here with a chance to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.
While the Monarchs will be max motivated to get this win and a bowl, Georgia State has questionable motivation at best. The Panthers had a promising start to the season at 6-1, but they have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS since and were non-competitive in all four games. They lost by 17 at Georgia Southern, by 28 at home to James Madison, by 28 at home to Appalachian State and by 42 at LSU. I think these players have quit on head coach Shawn Elliott. I don't think they show up at all here Saturday.
Old Dominion has played some of the best teams in the Sun Belt down to the wire. They only lost 30-27 at James Madison as 20-point dogs and upset Appalachian State 28-21 as 6-point home dogs. Appalachian State just beat James Madison last week. They can play with anyone in this conference, and they can certainly beat a middle-of-the-pack team here in Georgia State.
Georgia State needs to be able to run the football to be successful because they are a suspect passing team. Well, despite playing a brutal schedule, Old Dominion only allows 3.8 yards per carry this season. They are holding opponents to 0.7 per carry below their season averages. Georgia State has by far the worst defense in this matchup. They allow 6.5 yards per play on the season while Old Dominion only allows 5.5 yards per play. Georgia State is only slightly better than ODU on offense. The Monarchs should be favored by more because they are the better team, they're at home and they're the much more motivated team. Bet Old Dominion Saturday.
|11-25-23||Miami-OH v. Ball State +6.5||Top||17-15||Win||100||83 h 26 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +6.5
The Ball State Cardinals have been grossly undervalued for weeks. They continue to play with pride despite being eliminated from bowl contention. They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 7 to Toledo as 17.5-point dogs and by 3 to Bowling Green as 4.5-point dogs. They also upset Central Michigan 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs, upset Northern Illinois 20-17 as 9-point dogs and crushed Kent State 34-3 as 10-point favorites.
Now it's revenge time for the Cardinals. They were 5-6 last year and playing Miami Ohio with both at 5-6 and trying to get bowl eligible in the season finale. They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 18-17 to the Redhawks last year. They have not forgotten, and they will get their revenge here with an outright victory, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
Miami Ohio is going to be flat as a pancake in this one. They already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo. They could care less about winning this game. The priority is to stay healthy and fresh for that game against Toledo next week, not to beat Ball State.
Miami Ohio has been fortunate in close games and has taken advantage of a weak schedule. They have played the 129th-ranked schedule in the country while Ball State has played the 108th. Their offense makes it hard for them to get margin. They average 345 yards per game against teams that average allowing 379 yards per game, being held to 34 yards per game less than their season average. Ball State has a very good defense that allows 326 yards per game and 5.3 per play and will hold Miami Ohio in check again.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Ball State Saturday.
|11-24-23||Texas Tech +13.5 v. Texas||Top||7-57||Loss||-110||96 h 22 m||Show|
20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +13.5
Texas has all the pressure on them right now. They are trying to win out to make the college football playoff. They haven't contender for a national championship for a long time, so there is a ton of pressure on them right now. They are handling it will so far, but they have also been very fortunate in close games here of late.
Indeed, the Longhorns have seen five of their last six games decided by 10 points or fewer. The lone exception was their win over BYU, which is probably the worst team in the Big 12. They only beat Houston by 7, K-State by 3, TCU by 3 and Iowa State by 10 while losing by 4 to Oklahoma. It should be five one-score games in their last six considering Iowa State had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 points by Texas, turning a 7-point game into a 10-point game and costing Cyclones backers the cover.
Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury two weeks ago against TCU. He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 per carry, while also catching 25 balls for 286 yards and a score. Backup CJ Baxter averages just 4.7 per carry and is a big downgrade. Plus, leading receiver Xavier Worthy got injured in the win over Iowa State last week and was removed from the game. He is very questionable to play this week. That would be a big blow considering Worthy leads the team with 63 receptions, 834 yards and 4 TD.
Texas Tech has been a dangerous team with a healthy Behren Morton at QB. He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,410 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for three scores. Well, he has been healthy here down the stretch and it has led to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS run with wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF. They have now clinched a bowl at 6-5 and have no pressure on them, so they will be pulling out all the stops to try and knock off Texas.
Last year, Texas Tech beat Texas 37-34 as 7-point home dogs, and now they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch on the road. There was nothing fluky about that win as Texas Tech racked up 479 total yards and outgained Texas by 53 yards in that contest. I like this Texas Tech defense, which allows 5.4 yards per play this season. To compare, Texas allows 5.2 yards per play, so they have only been slightly better.
Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 475 or more yards last game. Texas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Longhorns may get lucky and win another close game, but they aren't going to win by two-plus touchdowns to beat us. Bet Texas Tech Friday.
|11-24-23||UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane||16-29||Loss||-110||92 h 8 m||Show|
15* UTSA/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on UTSA +3.5
The UTSA Roadrunners won Conference USA each of the last two seasons. Now they are trying to show that they are the best team in their new conference in the American Athletic. I think they are the best team outside SMU, and they prove it here this week against Tulane.
UTSA has been hitting on all cylinders since getting a healthy Frank Harris back at QB. He has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 9 and he means everything to this team. The Roadrunners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in AAC play. They are scoring 41.0 points per game, averaging 464.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, while allowing 22.1 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.
Tulane is also 7-0 but 2-5 ATS and has been fortunate to win some of these close games against bad teams. Tulane is averaging 27.4 points per game, 403.3 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play while allowing 20.0 points per game, 342.6 yards per game and 5.5 per play. UTSA has the better numbers, and that's especially the case when you compare common opponents.
UTSA is 5-0 against common opponents of Tulane. They are scoring 37.8 points per game and allowing 20.0 points per game in those five games. Tulane is scoring 27.4 points per game and allowing 19.4 points per game against those same five opponents. So it's clear these defenses are pretty even, but UTSA has far and away the better offense.
Tulane only won 24-22 as a 24-point home favorite over Tulsa, 13-10 as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, 30-28 as a 10-point favorite at Rice and 35-28 as a 20.5-point home favorite over North Texas. That's four one-score games against four of the worst teams in the conference. Their luck runs out this week against a legit team in UTSA.
Plays on road teams (UTSA) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7-plus games after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA gets and extra day of rest and preparation after hosting USF last Friday, while Tulane had to travel to face FAU on Saturday. That's a nice little hidden edge for the Roadrunners. Wrong team favored here. Bet UTSA Friday.
|11-24-23||Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets||Top||34-13||Win||100||115 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins -6.5
This was a good early grab on the Dolphins -6.5 as soon as this line came out on Sunday. It is a 25* at -7 or better, a 20* at -7.5 to -9.5 and a 15* at -10 or worse at this point. I already expected this line to climb, but then the Jets announced they were going to start Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson on Monday, and it shot up to -9.5 and -10 in some places.
The Jets are desperate at this point because they have scored a total of 9 offensive touchdowns in 10 games. They know they should have traded for a QB because they just don't have any good options on the roster. Boyle is actually a downgrade from Zach Wilson. Boyle had a 1-to-13 TD/INT ratio at UConn, an 11-to-13 TD/INT ratio at Eastern Kentucky and currently has a 3-to-8 TD/INT ratio in the NFL to this point. That's 17 TD and 32 INT in his career dating back to college.
It's safe to say Boyle and this Jets offense won't be able to keep up with Miami's No. 1 ranked offensive in the entire NFL. The Dolphins are scoring 30.5 points per game, averaging 434 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play. The Chiefs and Raiders held them in check the last two weeks, which is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Chiefs are holding everyone in check, and the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot against the Raiders. They didn't have to punt on any of their first nine possessions of that game and left a ton of points on the board with three turnovers and getting stopped on downs. The Raiders didn't stop them as they had 422 total yards.
But while this Miami offense has hit the skids in recent weeks, this Miami defense has picked up the slack. Jalen Ramsey already has three interceptions in two games since returning from injury. They held the Chiefs to 14 points and 267 yards and the Raiders to 13 points and 296 yards. Vic Fangio now has all the players in place that he needs to run his aggressive, proven scheme. Don't be surprised if Miami's defense scores for us in this one against Boyle.
No question the Jets have a great defense, but they are getting tired from being on the field too much. I think we saw a little quit in them last week in their 32-6 loss to Buffalo. They allowed 393 total yards to the Bills in that contest. Now they have to come back on a short week and are a tired defense, and a tired team in general playing for a 5th consecutive week. The Dolphins had their bye prior to facing the Raiders last week so they should still be very fresh, which is a huge advantage on this short week.
New York head coach Robert Saleh is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on a short week as the head coach of the Jets. New York is 11-22 ATS in its last 33 vs AFC East opponents. Tua is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more. Bet the Dolphins Friday.
|11-24-23||Miami-FL v. Boston College +9||45-20||Loss||-110||89 h 38 m||Show|
15* Miami/Boston College ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +9
I really question Miami's motivation and their physical and mental state going into this regular season finale against Boston College. What started out as a promising season with a win over Texas A&M and hopes of winning the ACC has turned into a disaster. It all unraveled for Miami when they didn't take a knee and lost to Georgia Tech.
The Hurricanes have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last five games overall with both wins coming by 8 points or less, so they haven't covered this kind of number in any of their last seven games. They are coming off three consecutive losses in high-profile games. They lost 20-6 at NC State, 27-20 at Florida State and 38-31 to Louisville. After falling just short against FSU and Louisville, two national title contenders, they won't be nearly as excited to face Boston College this week.
Boston College will have no problem getting up to face Miami. I also like the spot for Boston College because they get extra rest here after playing Pittsburgh on Thursday last week. So they get two more days of rest than Miami will on this short week for the Hurricanes. That's a big advantage and probably worth a couple points. Sometimes you just have to play the spot, and this is one of those times.
Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Miami is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after going over the total in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest. Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team that allows a 58% completion percentage or worse. Bet Boston College Friday.
|11-24-23||Memphis v. Temple +11.5||45-21||Loss||-110||89 h 37 m||Show|
15* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +11.5
Memphis just suffered their dream crusher loss in a 38-34 home loss to SMU that eliminated them from AAC Championship contention. They will fall flat on their faces this week and probably lose this game outright to Temple now. We'll take the points with the Owls as a result.
Temple has been so much more competitive when QB EJ Warner has been healthy. Warner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,746 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio. He returned against Navy three weeks ago and threw for 402 yards and 4 TD. He threw for 280 yards and 3 TD against USF two weeks ago. And he threw for 323 yards and 2 TD against UAB last week. Temple was competitive in all three games.
Memphis just has a way of playing in close games. In fact, eight of Memphis' last nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The lone exception was their 45-21 win over UAB that came against a backup QB for UAB due to injury. It was also a misleading final as UAB actually outgained them 381 to 358 but was -4 in turnovers.
The reason Memphis struggles to get margin is because their defense is awful. They have allowed 38 points or more in four consecutive games. They allow 34.9 points per game, 464 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play in conference play. Those are numbers very similar to Temple. I think the Owls can keep up in a shootout, and they will never be out of this one due to Memphis' leaky defense. Bet Temple Friday.
|11-24-23||Iowa v. Nebraska -1||Top||13-10||Loss||-110||90 h 40 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -1
I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week. They need one more win to get bowl eligible. That only adds to their motivation to beat their biggest rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes. They lost by 3 to Michigan State, by 3 to Maryland and in OT to Wisconsin in their last three games but were -6 in turnovers in those three games and easily could have won all three. This is a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate. They aren't going to pack it in now.
Conversely, Iowa is a much worse team than its 9-2 record would indicate. They are actually getting outgained by 34 yards per game on the season despite playing a very soft schedule. They have the worst offense in the country averaging 247.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Compare that to Nebraska, which averages 317.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play.
But the biggest reason to back Nebraska is because Iowa is in a massive letdown spot here. They just clinched a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Illinois last week. They will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't put nearly as much emphasis into beating Nebraska as they normally would. They want to stay healthy to try and give a good effort in that game after getting blown out pretty much every time they have won the Big Ten West in recent years. They will get blown out again in that game, but first they are going to fall to Nebraska Friday.
After four straight heartbreaking losses to Iowa by one score in all four, the Huskers finally broke through with a 24-17 win at Iowa last year. They deserved to win every one of those one-score games and finally got one. That will give them a lot of confidence that they can do it again this year with that monkey off their back and a 7-game losing streak to Iowa in the rearview.
Nebraska has been through three different quarterbacks this season due to injury. They may have found their best QB against Wisconsin last week in Chuba Purdy. He completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards with one TD and one INT, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score on 14 carries. He gives them a great chance to win if he starts again this week, and whoever is under center will be better than Iowa's Deacon Hill, who is completing 49.7% of his passes and averaging just 5.1 per attempt.
Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to be successful. Well, they aren't going to be able to run on Nebraska's stout run defense. The Huskers allow just 87 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, holding opponents to 45 rushing yards per game and 1.1 per carry less than their season averages. Nebraska is the better rushing team averaging 187 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one. That will be the difference, plus their edge in motivation. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|11-23-23||49ers -4.5 v. Seahawks||31-13||Win||100||97 h 33 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West BAILOUT on San Francisco -4.5
The San Francisco 49ers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS when healthy this season and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS when not healthy. By healthy I mean having both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the field at the same time. They came out of the bye healthy, and the offense has been humming again.
The 49ers beat the Jaguars 34-3 and hung 437 total yards on a very good Jacksonville defense out of the bye. They followed it up with a 27-14 win over the Bucs last week and had 420 total yards in the win. Brock Purdy has been flawless to prove his doubters wrong, and it will continue this week against the Seattle Seahawks.
The 49ers will be the fresher team because they recently had a bye. The Seahawks are gassed because they had their bye on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week. What makes them even more gassed is just how many of their games have gone down to the wire since the bye. Four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less. That includes their 29-26 win over Washington on a last-second FG, and their 17-16 loss to the Rams last week where they missed a last-second FG that would have won it. I don't trust them from a physical or mental state on this short week.
The 49ers have had no problem covering against the Seahawks in recent meetings. They won 27-7 in their first meeting last year, 21-13 in their 2nd meeting last year, and 41-23 in the playoffs last year. They dominated the box score in all three games. They averaged 419 yards per game and allowed just 275 yards per game to the Seahawks, outgaining them by 144 yards per game. They have outgained them by at least 104 yards in all three meetings.
The Seahawks are getting outgained by 19 yards per game on the season and are fortunate to be 6-4. The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 84 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. The are elite and the best team in the NFL in my opinion. The other team right alongside them is the Ravens, and the Seahawks were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore a few weeks ago. They gave up 515 yards to the Ravens and were held to 151, getting outgained by a whopping 366 yards.
Seattle QB Geno Smith hurt his arm and was knocked out of the game against the Rams. He did come back in for the final drive and may play in this one, but he won't be 100%. RB Kennetch Walker is doubtful for this one. These injuries are starting to pile up again for the Seahawks, and they stand no chance of being competitive with the 49ers at anything less than full strength.
Road favorites are 24-1 SU & 19-6 ATS in their last 25 tries on Thanksgiving Day. Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the 2nd half of the season. San Francisco is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. division opponents. Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after rushing for 75 or fewer yards last game. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|11-23-23||Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 46||Top||10-45||Win||100||93 h 44 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Cowboys NFC Afternoon FEAST on OVER 46
The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are very pass-happy and up-tempo on offense and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That's an OVER bettors' dream in the NFL, and we'll play this game accordingly.
The Commanders are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall, and their game against the Patriots that stayed under should have went over. They had 37 combined points with a total of 40.5 with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Neither team scored again.
The Commanders lost 31-38 to Philadelphia for 69 combined points. They had 472 total yards against the Eagles. They had 432 total yards against the Patriots. The lost to the Seahawks 29-26 for 55 combined points and gave up 489 total yards to the Seahawks. Then last week they lost 31-19 to the Giants for 50 combined points. That's Tommy Devito and the Giants, who they allowed 31 points to. But they also had 403 total yards in the loss and probably should have scored a lot more if they didn't turn it over six times.
The Cowboys are rolling offensively. In their last four games, they had 43 points against the Rams, 406 total yards against the Eagles, 49 points against the Giants and 33 points against the Panthers. They will hang another big number on what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Commanders in their current form. Their defense has struggled when they have actually been tested. They gave up 42 points and 421 total yards to the 49ers and 28 points to the Eagles. They will get tested by Sam Howell and this underrated Washington offense.
Ron Rivera is 20-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or more as a head coach. Rivera is 11-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as a head coach. Rivera is 9-0 OVER in road games after losing six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach. Rivera is 8-0 OVER in road games vs. elite offensive teams that score 29 points or more as a head coach. Mike McCarthy is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the head coach of Dallas. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-23-23||Packers v. Lions OVER 44.5||Top||29-22||Win||100||89 h 44 m||Show|
20* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL averaging 27.2 points per game, 399.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They have combined for 77 points with the Chargers and 57 points with the Bears in their last two games coming in. This 44.5-point total is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.
The Lions are showing how scary good they can be offensively when healthy in recent weeks. They put up 26 points and 486 total yards on the Raiders, 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers and 31 points on an improving Bears defense the last three weeks. But their defense has shown a lot of holes lately. They allowed 38 points and 421 total yards to the Chargers and 26 points and 334 total yards to the Bears.
The Packers are showing signs of life on offense in recent weeks. They had 391 total yards against the Rams, 399 total yards against the Steelers and 397 total yards against the Chargers in their last three games. They can get things going against this Detroit defense again, and their defense has been far from spectacular. The Chargers should have scored a lot more points on them last week than they did, but they had a ton of drops. They should have scored 30-plus points on the Packers.
Detroit beat Green Bay 34-20 in the first meeting this season for 54 combined points. That game was in Green Bay outdoors in tougher conditions. This game will be indoors, and both offenses will thrive in the dome in Detroit. The Packers are likely losing their most important defender in De'Vondre Campbell for this one. They could also be without Jaire Alexander.
Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a win by 6 points or less. Jordan Love is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try and keep up with this Detroit offense that is scoring 30.0 points per game at home this season. They'll likely have to abandon the run early in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-20-23||Eagles +3 v. Chiefs||Top||21-17||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3
The Philadelphia Eagles want revenge from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They got some bad whistles in that game and deserved to win. They outgained the Chiefs 417 to 340, or by 77 total yards. It was probably Jalen Hurts' best game of his career to boot, and you know he wants some revenge here.
But a big reason I like the Eagles here is the weather report. There is a 75% chance of rain with 15-20 MPH winds expected. So it's going to favor the team that runs the football better. Well, the Eagles are the better running team with the better run defense. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run and haven't been able to establish a consistent rushing attack.
The Eagles rank 8th in rushing at 129.7 yards per game while the Chiefs rank 19th at 103.8 yards per game. The Eagles are 1st in the NFL at stopping the run allowing 66.3 yards per game, while the Chiefs are 17th at 112.2 yards per game allowed. The Eagles are also 5th allowing just 3.7 yards per carry while the Chiefs are 29th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.
This Kansas City offense is really broken this season. They have managed 14 points or fewer in three of their last four games with the 21 they scored on the Dolphins coming with an asterisk because 7 of those came from a defensive touchdown. The Eagles will focus on stopping Travic Kelce just like everyone else has recently, and that formula has really worked in stopping the Chiefs because Mahomes doesn't trust his other receivers.
The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. Plays against home favorites (Kansas City) - after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in three consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-19-23||Seahawks v. Rams +2||Top||16-17||Win||100||142 h 58 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week. They are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season. QB Matthew Stafford will return from injury, as will LB ERnest Jones and RT Rob Havenstein. The Rams are primed for a big effort to try and get back into the playoff hunt.
I love backing teams that are pissed off going into their bye week because they usually take it more seriously and make it a chance to improve instead of relax. It worked for the 49ers last week and I was all over them coming off three straight losses going into their bye. They crushed the Jaguars 34-3. The Rams are off three consecutive losses as well and will crush the Seahawks for the 2nd time this season.
The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road in the season opener. There was nothing fluky about that win as the Rams outgained the Seahawks 426 to 180, or by 246 total yards. And the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp in that game. The Rams simply own the Seahawks, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and a couple of those include close losses last season when they didn't have Stafford. They have dominated the Seahawks with a healthy Stafford or Jared Goff. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll.
I question how much the Seahawks have left in the tank here. They have played five consecutive weeks and were in dog fights in four of those five games. They are coming off a 29-26 home win over the Washington Commanders needing a last-second FG to beat them. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Browns and PJ Walker three weeks ago, and they were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore two weeks ago.
The Seahawks are 6-3 this season but have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL. The Rams have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL. The win in Week 2 over the Lions was legit, but the Seahawks' other five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Commanders and the Browns with Walker. When they have stepped up in class they have struggled.
Seattle is actually getting outgained on the season by 23 yards per game, so their 6-3 record is pretty fraudulent. They have also been outscored on the season. I think they are getting too much respect here being favored on the road, and I'll gladly back the home dog that I believe to be the better team with a massive rest and preparation advantage. Plus, the Rams own the Seahawks. Seattle could easily be looking ahead to the game against San Francisco on Thanksgiving that will likely decide the division. They could try and conserve some energy for that contest instead, while the Rams will be 'all in' for a win here. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|11-19-23||Bears v. Lions OVER 46||26-31||Win||100||148 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Bears/Lions OVER 46
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team when playing in a controlled environment like their dome and on turf. They are scoring 26.8 points per game and averaging 406.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play as one of the top offenses in the NFL. They are going to hang a big number on the Chicago Bears to lead the way in cashing this OVER.
We saw what this Detroit offense could do when fully healthy at the skill positions last week as they hung 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers. But they were life and death with the Chargers because their defense couldn't get a stop, allowing 38 points in a game that saw 77 combined points last week. The Bears will have success against their defense as well.
Chicago gets Justin Fields back at QB this week and he's a dead nuts OVER QB. They could also have RB Khalil Herbert back this week, tho D'Onta Foreman has been just fine in his place. They have been without Fields for the past 4.5 games and their offense has struggled without him. Prior to that, they scored 40 points and hung 451 total yards on the Commanders after scoring 28 points with 471 yards against the Broncos the game prior.
This was a very high-scoring series last year with the Bears and Lions combining for 61 and 51 points in their two meetings. It will be more of the same in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Raiders v. Dolphins OVER 47.5||13-20||Loss||-110||148 h 4 m||Show|
15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Raiders/Dolphins OVER 47.5
The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They are averaging 31.7 points per game, 435.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season. The OVER is 3-1 in Dolphins four home games this season with all four seeing 47 or more combined points, and that even includes games against three of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Giants, Panthers and Patriots. Miami home games are averaging 62.0 combined points per game this season.
The Dolphins are going to hang a big number on the Raiders today to lead the way to us cashing the OVER. Aiden O'Connell seems like an OVER QB for the Raiders much more so than Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer. O'Connell is more of a gunslinger and he will be unleashed in this game Sunday. He won't have the benefit of trying to protect a lead like he has the last two weeks.
The Raiders played the Giants and Tommy DeVito and the Jets and Zach Wilson the last two weeks. The last time they played a legit offense was the game prior when they gave up 486 total yards to the Lions. They will have to play hurry-up on offense this week to try and keep up with the Dolphins while trailing. I think they can score enough points to help contribute to us cashing this OVER, plus O'Connell is going to make some mistakes and set up short fields and easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins as well.
Miami is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games after going under the total in its previous game. This is a very low total for a game involving the Dolphins. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Raiders v. Dolphins -12||13-20||Loss||-110||117 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins -12
I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week. They are coming off their bye week following a tough loss to the Chiefs in Germany in a game they proved they belonged with the top teams in this league finally. They outgained the Chiefs and held them to just 267 total yards, but the difference was a fluky fumble that was returned for a TD in a 7-point victory by the Chiefs.
The Dolphins have struggled against the top teams in the NFL, but they have beaten up on everyone else, especially at home. The Dolphins are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season with all four wins coming by 14 points or more. They are scoring 43.5 points per game, averaging 516 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play at home while allowing just 18.5 points per game, 286 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play at home. They are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game, outgaining them by 230 yards per game and 2.9 yards per play at home.
The Raiders had the good fortune of getting to face Tommy DeVito and the Giants and Zach Wilson and the Jets in the two games since Antonio Pierce took over at head coach. This team still isn't very good, and they will get their doors blown off this week. They were outgained by the Jets 365 to 274, or by 91 total yards and didn't deserve to win that game. Their luck runs out this week.
The Dolphins are getting healthier on defense and just shut down the Chiefs. They are a legit good defensive team when healthy. They are also expected to get RB De'Von Achane back from injury, and they have arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL when he and Mostert are healthy together. The Dolphins are going to score at will on the Raiders, who are much worse defensively than they get credit for.
Prior to facing the Jets and Giants, the Raiders gave up 486 total yards to the Lions and then 30 points to Tyson Bageant and the Bears the game prior. The Dolphins are even more potent on offense than the Lions and will likely exceed 35 points and 500 total yards in this one. Las Vegas is going to have to unleash Aiden O'Connell in this one, and it's going to lead to mistakes from the rookie and easy points and short fields for the Dolphins.
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher. Tua is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more as a starting QB. The Raiders are 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games following an upset win as a home underdog. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after covering the spread in two of their last three games. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-19-23||Cardinals v. Texans OVER 46.5||Top||16-21||Loss||-110||162 h 30 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5
The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers.
The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week. CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen. He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results. It's not going to stop now.
I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week. He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week. Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run. He is much more dynamic when that's the case.
Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game. The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts. I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense. Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.
Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston. I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time. Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-18-23||Texas v. Iowa State +9||Top||26-16||Loss||-110||144 h 47 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9
The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12. Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12. It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare. This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value.
After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston. That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12. They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB. Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare.
Iowa State isn't scared of Texas. The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year. Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too. Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average.
What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. This defense gives them a chance in any game. They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country. He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games.
Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week. Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry. It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season. The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively. And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.
Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas. Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State. I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-18-23||Boise State v. Utah State +3||45-10||Loss||-105||93 h 51 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3
The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now. They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State. They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won.
Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility. The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season. They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play. The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important.
Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers. The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play. And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse. They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season. They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD. He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return.
I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season. Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23. We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser. As you can see, I'm still not over it. But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation. They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings.
Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more. Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season. They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season. Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. Wrong team favored here. Bet Utah State Saturday.
|11-18-23||Illinois v. Iowa OVER 30.5||Top||13-15||Loss||-110||90 h 38 m||Show|
20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5
I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons. The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers. All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses.
The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State. But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team.
The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week. They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards. That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory. And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that.
In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total. The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense. It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions.
Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers. They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more. But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds. Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score. They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest.
Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season. He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary. DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football.
Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game. Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders. We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-18-23||Sam Houston State v. Western Kentucky OVER 52||Top||23-28||Loss||-110||90 h 37 m||Show|
20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52
I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for. Well, here's a good example of that. Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game. They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program.
Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title. They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season. The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well. But I prefer the OVER instead.
Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo. That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall. They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech. The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games.
The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games. They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points. They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points. The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now.
Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season. They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home. The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well. This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone.
The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders. This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-18-23||Texas State v. Arkansas State +4||31-77||Win||100||89 h 4 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4
Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette. They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs. They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.
Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern. They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB. So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation. Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job.
Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener. But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time. Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it. Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games.
Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively. They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are.
Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State. They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons. A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright. Bet Arkansas State Saturday.
|11-18-23||Cincinnati +7 v. West Virginia||21-42||Loss||-115||89 h 37 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen. They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least. Let's just look at the numbers to make my point.
Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game. They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense. They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season.
West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati. The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game. We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point.
I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home. But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma. West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners. I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games.
Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach. After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke. They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week. Bet Cincinnati Saturday.
|11-18-23||Rutgers +20.5 v. Penn State||Top||6-27||Loss||-110||86 h 7 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week. They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan. They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away. I don't expect them to show up at all this week.
James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself. And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss. Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite. Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.
I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa. But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers. They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week. They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title.
Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss. The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns. They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State. If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State.
Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss. Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach. The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|11-17-23||South Florida +16 v. UTSA||Top||21-49||Loss||-110||97 h 23 m||Show|
20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16
This game means nothing to UTSA. Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters. The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game. As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so.
UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels. They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior. Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here.
South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight. They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them. The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior. That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game.
South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric. The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat. The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play. They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season.
Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games. The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game. Bet South Florida Friday.
|11-16-23||Bengals v. Ravens -3||Top||20-34||Win||100||105 h 49 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -3
I was able to grab an early -3 number on the Baltimore Ravens expecting this line to move up. They have taken money every week and for good reason. They are arguably the best team in the entire NFL when you look at their numbers. I would still play the Ravens as a 20* up to -4.
Baltimore is averaging 27.0 points per game, 362.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 15.7 points pre game, 273.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense. They are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game and outgaining them by 89 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play, which is the best YPP differential in the NFL.
Let's compare those numbers to Cincinnati. The Bengals are scoring 20.2 points per game, averaging 301.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense while allowing 21.3 points per game, 383.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense. They are getting outscored by 1.1 points per game, which is very fortunate when you consider they are getting outgained by 82 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play. That's one of the worst YPP differentials in the NFL.
While the Bengals have shown some life offensively in recent weeks, their defense is absolutely atrocious this season and the biggest reason they aren't as good as they have been the past couple seasons. The Bengals allowed 544 total yards to the Texans last week with 188 on the ground to a backup RB and 356 through the air.
Making matters worse for the Bengals right now is injuries to key players. They just lost DE Sam Hubbard to an ankle injury in that loss to Houston and they were already without WR Tee Higgins, who is going to be out again Thursday on a short week. DE Trey Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee on the final play against Houston, and he is very questionable to play and won't be 100% if he does.
While Cincinnati was fortunate to even have a chance to win against Houston last week, Baltimore is going to be pissed off after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Browns. Lamar Jackson had a pass tipped that was returned for a TD, so it was very fluky. Give Cleveland and Deshaun Watson credit for what they were able to do in coming back. I think the Ravens were caught looking ahead to this game.
Amazingly, each of Baltimore's last seven losses with Lamar Jackson on the field, they had a 75% chance of winning or better in the 4th quarter. That's how close they have been to absolute perfection over the last two seasons. They will be pissed off after blowing another one, and they haven't forgotten that the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last year, albeit without Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens got their initial revenge with a 27-24 road win as 3-point underdogs at Cincinnati in their first meeting this season on September 17th. The Ravens were banged up back then and missing several key players that has since returned. That was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Baltimore had a 415 to 282 advantage in total yards, but the Bengals got a long punt return TD from Charlie Jones that kept them closer than they deserved to be. Not only did the Ravens lose in the playoffs to the Bengals, they also lost in Week 18 to them. They would love to pay back that double-revenge by winning both regular season meetings this season and crushing Cincinnati's playoff hopes.
Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Finally, the Bengals are 1-23 SU in their last 24 road games at night. They have lost 13 consecutive road night games with their last win coming at Philadelphia in 2012. Bet the Ravens Thursday.
|11-14-23||Western Michigan +5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||0-24||Loss||-109||24 h 6 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan +5
Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and should be 7-0 ATS, so they are a way undervalued commodity right now. They are coming off a 38-28 win over Central Michigan as 3-point home favorites where they gained 484 total yards in a dominant effort. That followed up a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.
The Broncos also took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior. They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior. They covered in a 28-41 loss at Mississippi State as 21.5-point dogs. They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites. They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.
Now Western Michigan is catching 5 points against a Northern Illinois team that can't get out of their own way right now and is overvalued. The Huskies are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall despite being favored in all three games. They only beat Eastern Michigan 20-13 as 12-point home favorites. They lost at Central Michigan 37-31 as 6-point road favorites. They lost 20-17 at home to Ball State as 9-point home favorites last time out. Those are three of the worst teams in the MAC. They cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number against a Western Michigan team that is playing better than them to close out the season.
Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven MAC road games. Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite. The Huskies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites overall. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.
|11-13-23||Broncos +7.5 v. Bills||Top||24-22||Win||100||152 h 6 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Bills ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7.5
These are two teams headed in opposite directions. There's clearly value with the team trending up in the Denver Broncos, especially when you consider their massive rest advantage. They are coming off a bye week and as healthy as they have been all season. The Bills are coming off a Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals and will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.
The Bills are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They have hit the skids since losing three of their best defensive players in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London in which they allowed 474 total yards. They were life and death with Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, needed two stops from the 1-yard line to seal a 14-9 home win as 15.5-point favorites. They lost outright to the Patriots 29-25 as 7.5-point road favorites and allowed Mac Jones to look like a star. They had to defend a hail mary in a 24-18 win as 10-point home favorites over the hapless Bucs. And last week they were never really in the game in a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati where they allowed 397 yards.
The Broncos are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall. They beat the Packers 19-17 at home and outgained them. Then they pulled the 24-9 upset at home over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7-point dogs. They held to the Chiefs to 19 points the game prior, and their defense getting healthy and living up to its potential is the reason for the turnaround. They have allowed just 15.0 points per game in their last three games despite facing the Chiefs twice. That's mighty impressive.
I'll gladly side with the better defense in this one catching 7.5 points to the Bills. Buffalo lost another starter in S Micah Hyde in that loss to the Bengals. LB Terrel Bernard remains in concussion protocol. This Denver offense will have plenty of new wrinkles coming out of the bye under Sean Payton and is primed for one of their best performances of the season against this injury-ravaged Bills defense. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that has made him the 2nd-least accurate passer in the NFL on deep throws since the injury.
Denver is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games when playing on two weeks' rest. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Buffalo) - after two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers last game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Sean Payton is 50-31 ATS as an underdog as a head coach. Payton is 45-25 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins as a head coach. The Bills are getting too much respect for the team they were in the past, not the team they currently are. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|11-12-23||Falcons v. Cardinals||23-25||Loss||-110||124 h 51 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons PK
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Falcons. They are 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS this season with so many losses in close games. But Taylor Heineke has given this offense a spark the last two weeks and I think they are better off with him moving forward.
Heineke replaced Desmond Ridder midway through the Tennessee game and nearly led them to a comeback, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown on only 21 attempts. He then threw for 268 yards and another touchdown against the Vikings last week and led them to 28 points. He led what looked to be the game-winning TD drive with two minutes left to take a 28-24 lead, but the defense couldn't hold it.
I think everything comes together for the Falcons this week. They are just one game back of the Saints in the NFC South Division with a lot to play for. They won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly, especially coming off two consecutive losses. Leading receiver Drake London is expected to return this week after missing last week. Heineke will be even better with him on the field as another weapon.
But this is as much of a fade of Arizona as anything. The Cardinals are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by double-digits. They couldn't win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, and Kyler Murray won't be an upgrade in his first start back from a torn ACL. He won't be the old Kyler Murray where he was looking to run, and he isn't exactly the best pocket passer.
Arizona's troubles go much deeper than at quarterback. They've been without RB James Conner, RB Emari Demercado and WR Michael Wilson. They have three starters on the offensive line that are questionable as this has just been a mash unit this season. Murray isn't going to have much time behind this offensive line. Arizona has a leaky defense that allows 26.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.
Atlanta is one of those teams that has better numbers than their record would indicate which is another reason we can 'buy low' on them in the second half of the season. They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play. Arizona is getting outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play to compare. We are getting the Falcons cheap here because of the Kyler Murray news. It won't make a difference in his first game back. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|11-12-23||Lions -120 v. Chargers||Top||41-38||Win||100||160 h 24 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions ML -120
The Detroit Lions are as healthy as they have been all season. They are coming out of their bye week and primed for a big performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. They are the better team in this matchup, so getting -120 on the money line on the opener Sunday night was an absolute steal.
The Lions are expected to get RB David Montgomery back from injury this week. They are also expected to get two starting offensive linemen back this week. It's not like they were hurting going into the bye, crushing the Raiders 26-14 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained the Raiders 486 to 157, or by 331 total yards.
The Lions are an elite team but aren't getting treated like one. They belong up there with the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens of the world. The Lions are outgaining opponents by 94 yards per game on the season and 0.5 yards per play. Let's compare that to the Chargers, who are actually getting outgained by 35 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, and it's easy to see why I'm on the Lions.
The Chargers are getting respect here because of their 27-6 win over the Jets on Monday Night Football. That was such a misleading final. The Jets held them to just 191 total yards yet lost by 21. They gave up an 87-yard punt return TD to the Chargers for the first score of the game and were behind the eight ball the rest of the way, finishing -3 in turnovers.
This Chargers offense has been held to 17 points by the Cowboys, 17 points by the Chiefs and then 191 yards by the Jets in three of their last four games. Their offense is broken right now. They are without two of their top three receivers in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, and they are so easy to stop now because teams can key in on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler without having to worry about those other two. The Chargers don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lions in this one, and the Lions have the much better defense.
Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a home win. The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13. Detroit is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after winning two of its last three games. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor pass defenses allowing 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season. These four trends combined for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Lions. Bet the Lions on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-12-23||Browns v. Ravens -6.5||33-31||Loss||-107||65 h 32 m||Show|
15* Browns/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -6.5
The Baltimore Ravens have gotten healthy and are currently the best team in the NFL with the way they are playing. They should be 9-0 but instead are 7-2 as they gave two games away against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season when they weren't healthy. What they have done their last four games when healthy has been mighty impressive.
Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-16 in London and outgained the Titans 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards. They beat the Lions 38-6 at home and outgained the Lions 503 to 337, or by 166 total yards. They beat Arizona 31-24 on the road and that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led by 17 in the 4th quarter. They beat Seattle 37-3 and outgained the Seahawks 515 to 151, or by 364 total yards.
This run has Baltimore ranked as the 3rd-best team in DVOA in NFL history through nine games. The Ravens average 369 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense and allow 263 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 106 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. They are scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona which is giving them more respect than they deserve. Arizona started 3rd stringer Clayton Tune in that game and seemed to purposely try to lose it. Deshaun Watson made his return from injury in that game and still didn't look right, but fortunately it didn't matter because the Cardinals didn't have a pulse on offense. It will matter this week.
It also matters that Watson will be playing behind an offensive line that is missing both starting tackles in Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis Jr. Now backup RT Dawand Jones has been ruled out. Watson is going to have his hands full with this offensive line up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that the Ravens deploy.
I think this Cleveland defense is overrated, too. They allowed 24 points and 362 total yards to the Seahawks and 38 points and 456 total yards to the Colts in their two games prior to facing the hapless Cardinals. We saw what the Ravens did to both of those teams holding the Colts to 19 points at the end of regulation, then holding the Seahawks to 3 points and 151 total yards last week.
The Ravens beat the Browns 28-3 on the road in their first meeting this season and had no problem scoring on them. The Ravens were also missing five defensive starters in that game. I know it was DTR instead of Watson, but I just don't think it's going to make a difference because Watson isn't right. It's going to be more of the same in the rematch with another blowout victory in Baltimore's favor.
Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 10 points or more. The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games. Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points as the coach of Cleveland. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|11-12-23||49ers -135 v. Jaguars||Top||34-3||Win||100||157 h 19 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Jaguars Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco ML -135
I love backing motivated teams off a bye week and fading fat and happy teams off a bye week. I get the best of both worlds here making the 49ers a very strong play to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on the Money Line.
The 49ers are pissed off following three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won. They lost by 2 at Cleveland, by 5 at Minnesota and by 14 at home to Cincinnati despite outgaining them by 60 yards and racking up 460 yards of offense in a misleading final.
A big reason for the 49ers' struggles were the injuries suffered in the loss to Cleveland. But now they are healthy out of the bye and expected to get both OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel back from injury. Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL protecting Brock Purdy's blind side. Samuel just opens up the entire offense with his ability to catch short passes and take it the distance. Plus, the 49ers get better defensively with the trade for Chase Young to pair him up with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa on the defensive line.
The Jaguars didn't need a bye because they were building up huge momentum going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games going into the bye. Now they have lost that momentum and are fat and happy and not as motivated as the 49ers will be. Plus, this five-game winning streak comes with some asterisks as it was a very soft schedule.
The Jaguars beat the Falcons in London then beat the Bills in London, who lost three defensive starters early in that game that changed the complexion of it. Then they beat the Colts despite only gaining 233 yards as the Colts handed it to them with four turnovers. They went on the road and beat the Saints by 7 as the Saints dropped a wide open TD pass in the final seconds that would have tied it. Then they beat the hapless Steelers, who have been outgained in every single game this season.
This is a big step up in class for the Jaguars to say the least. It's similar to when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and lost 17-9. Their offense was held to 271 total yards by the Chiefs while giving up 399 yards. The 49ers are the real contenders of these two teams, and that will show on the field Sunday. It also shows up in the numbers.
The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.2 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. The Jaguars are actually getting outgained on the season and outgained by 0.1 yards per play as well, gaining 5.2 on offense and allowing 5.3 on defense. I have the 49ers among the elite and the Jaguars in the middle of the pack. Jacksonville has very little home-field advantage compared to the rest of the NFL, too.
San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a non-conference game. Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games vs. NFC West opponents. Plays on road teams (San Francisco) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a good team winning 60-75% of their games in the second half of the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Francisco) - after three or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I grabbed the 49ers on the Money Line on the opener anticipating this line would move. Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-12-23||Colts -115 v. Patriots||10-6||Win||100||117 h 16 m||Show|
15* Colts/Patriots AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis ML -115
The Indianapolis Colts have a pulse now at 4-5 after beating the Carolina Panthers 27-13 on the road last week to end a three-game losing streak against a tough schedule of the Jaguars, Browns and Saints. They played all three of those teams tough when you look at the box score, and they did so short-handed.
Reinforcements are on the way for the Colts as they head to Germany to face the hapless New England Patriots. Teams have been able to run on them without DT Grover Stewart and especially without LB Zaire Franklin, the team's leading tackler with 102 tackles on the season, which is 40 more than 2nd place. Franklin returns to the lineup this week and will help shut down this New England rushing attack.
The Patriots are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and were fortunate to escape with both of the wins they have. They have a dreadful offense averaging just 15.0 points per game while the Colts average 25.8 points per game and are the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game. The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for ranking in the top half of the league in most metrics. The Patriots started out great defensively, but injuries have them falling off a cliff of late allowing 25 points to Buffalo, 31 points to Miami and 20 points and 432 total yards to Washington in their last three games.
The Patriots will be without CB JC Jackson and OT Trent Brown. They are lacking playmakers at receiver and will be without Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne. Demario Douglas is also banged up and questionable. They are in a really sad state offensively right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their go-to receiver. He can't get separation any more. Mac Jones has nobody to throw to, and when he does throw he makes terrible decisions and cannot be trusted.
Given the state of both of these teams with the Colts trending up and the Patriots trending down, the Colts should be the favorites here on a neutral field, so getting them at a PK is a gift. Indianapolis is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season including an upset of the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games after scoring at least 25 points in three consecutive games. Indianapolis is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game. Mac Jones is 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-11-23||USC v. Oregon -14.5||Top||27-36||Loss||-110||81 h 23 m||Show|
20* USC/Oregon FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -14.5
The gift that keeps on giving for us is fading USC. USC is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 108 points, or an average of 15.4 points per game. They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame. The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.
They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory. They lost by 10 to Washington as 2.5-point home dogs last week which ended their hopes of winning the Pac-12. I really question their motivation the rest of the way.
Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season on the road against an Oregon team that looks like a bonafide playoff contender and the best team in the Pac-12. Oregon is 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with elite numbers on offense and defense. They are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 540.1 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play, while allowing just 16.0 points per game, 301.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 3.1 yards per play, which is absolutely elite.
They will be able to score at will on a USC defense that allows 34.5 points per game, 436.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. This USC defense is the reason they aren't a contender. They have a very good offense, but it doesn't matter because the defense can't stop anyone. They certainly aren't going to stop Oregon after allowing 52 points to Washington and 49 to Cal the last two weeks. They have allowed 41 or more points in five of their last six games, and the lone exception was the 34 they allowed to a Utah offense that isn't even very good. To compare, Oregon held Utah to 6 points in a 35-6 victory two weeks ago in Salt Lake City to boot.
Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 42 points or more. This line should be much higher given the circumstances with USC a dead team walking and Oregon with a ton to play for. Plus, it's a Saturday night home game for the Ducks in what will be a very hostile atmosphere in their favor. Bet Oregon Saturday.
|11-11-23||Fresno State v. San Jose State -103||Top||18-42||Win||100||81 h 23 m||Show|
25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State ML -103
Despite their 4-5 record, the San Jose State Spartans are very much alive to win the Mountain West. They trail the Fresno State Bulldogs by just one game for 2nd place, and the top two teams play for the title. They have put themselves in this position by playing their best football of the season of late after a brutal schedule to start the season.
San Jose State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. They beat New Mexico 52-24 as 6-point road favorites behind 541 total yards with 16.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per rush. They beat a very good Utah State team 42-21 and held their high-powered offense to just 264 total yards. Then they beat Hawaii 35-0 while holding a solid Hawaii offense to 198 total yards.
That game against Hawaii was two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Fresno State. Meanwhile, Fresno State is coming off four straight games decided by a single score that went down to the wire. That includes their 37-30 win over Boise State last week where a kickoff return TD was the difference on the final play before half, plus they punched in a TD late on a breakaway 52-yard run.
Fresno State has been outgained in three consecutive games despite winning all three as they have simply been fortunate in close games. They gave up 568 yards to Utah State, 424 yards to UNLV and 488 yards to Boise State. Their defense isn't very good, and they are going to struggle to stop this surging San Jose State offense led by QB Chandler Cordeiro. He is completing 61% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores on the ground. The Spartans have rushed for at least 217 yards in three consecutive games and have tremendous balance.
No question Fresno State is led by a very good offense, but QB Mikey Keene is still hobbled and not 100%. I think this San Jose State defense is going to perform very well here just as they have the past two games against Utah State and Hawaii. They will put this two weeks of preparation to good use in coming up with the right game plan to at least slow down this Bulldogs offense. I think Fresno State's luck runs out this week in what is a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Spartans.
Fresno State is 4-13 ATS in its last 16 road games following two consecutive home wins. San Jose State is 6-0 ATS in Saturday games this season. Bet San Jose State Saturday.
|11-11-23||Ole Miss +11 v. Georgia||Top||17-52||Loss||-109||78 h 4 m||Show|
20* Ole Miss/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11
The Ole Miss Rebels are very much alive to win the SEC West with just one loss this season. They are going to need Alabama to slip up, but they still have to play Kentucky and Auburn. I have no doubt Ole Miss will be 'all in' this week to try and knock off the defending two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs. They are treating this game as their national championship.
Georgia has been overvalued all season after winning the title each of the last two seasons. They are consistently laying too many points, going 2-6-1 ATS in their nine games this season despite being 9-0 straight up. They let South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt all hang around with three of those wins coming by 10 points or fewer. This will now be by far their toughest test of the season.
I cashed Missouri +16 last week against Georgia and they were only outgained by 22 yards in a 9-point loss at Georgia. That was the game Georgia had to win because it basically sealed the SEC East for them. It also followed up the win over Florida, their biggest rivals. So this is the third straight game they are going to have to get up for, and I don't like their mental state coming into this one. Those games against SEC East foes Florida and Missouri were much more important than this game against Ole Miss from the West.
Ole Miss has played the 13th-toughest schedule in the country while Georgia has played the 69th. That's a 56-spot difference in strength of schedule. That important to consider when looking at the statistical profile of these two teams, which is much closer than you would expect for a team catching 11 points. Ole Miss gains 6.9 yards per play and allows 5.1 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play. Georgia averages 7.1 yards per play and allows 4.7 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.4 yards per play.
Georgia has a couple injuries here that are also concerning. They lost leading receiver Brock Bowers a couple games ago. He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD and was even in the Heisman Trophy discussion for how well he was playing. They just lost starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a fractured forearm against Missouri, and he's the 3rd-leading tackler on the team and has the most sacks. Fellow LB Xavian Sorey Jr. missed last game and is questionable to return.
Ole Miss has the kind of high-powered offense that is going to keep them in this game for four quarters. QB Jaxoson Dart is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 334 yards and 7 TD on the ground. He has arguably the most talented trio of receivers in the country in Harris, Watkins and Wade. The Rebels have nice balance rushing for 181 yards per game, and teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against this Georgia defense unlike previous years.
Georgia is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three consecutive conference wins, including 1-9 ATS under Kirby Smart in this spot. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after not committing a turnover in their previous game. Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. excellent passing teams that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-11-23||Cincinnati v. Houston OVER 54.5||24-14||Loss||-110||78 h 54 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 54.5
I like backing OVERS between two teams with not much to play for. There tends to be more offense and less defense in these games. Cincinnati sits at 2-7 on the season while Houston sits at 4-5. They aren't going to be concerned with playing defense in this one, and it's not like either of these teams has played very good defense anyway all season.
Cincinnati allows 28.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play overall, including 31.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in Big 12 play. Houston allows 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play overall, including 36.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play in conference play.
Cincinnati has a great offense for a team that is 2-7. The Bearcats average 452.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, but they have been done in by turnovers. Houston averages 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play and should get their offense going this week against this Cincinnati defense.
Four of Cincinnati's last five games have seen 54 or more combined points. I think this total is lower than it should be because Houston has gone under the total in three straight games, but they played two great defenses in Texas and Kansas State. They got their offense going last week against Baylor again and that should continue against Cincinnati this week.
Houston is 6-0 OVER vs. bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last three seasons. Dana Holgorsen is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 32-plus minutes in time of possession and 21 or more first downs per game as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-11-23||San Diego State v. Colorado State -3.5||19-22||Loss||-110||78 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Colorado State -3.5
I faded San Diego State last week with success and I am fading the Aztecs again for many of the same reasons. Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch. It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They sit at just 3-6 on the season and won't even be making a bowl game once they lost this week.
They suffered a 6-0 home loss to Nevada two weeks ago, which came against one of the worst teams in all of college football. They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers. And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.
They were more competitive last week but were fortunate to force OT as they trailed Utah State 17-7 at home with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. Utah State missed a 38-yard field goal to give them life, and they took advantage by scoring the final 10 points. They wound up losing 32-24 in double-OT, which was yet another deflating loss. I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Colorado State on the road this week.
San Diego State is 3-6 this season and every bit as bad as that record would indicate. They are gaining 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play. They are also getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game. They have another terrible offense this season, but the difference has been having their worst defense in over a decade.
Colorado State is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate. They should have beaten Colorado in a double-OT loss, and they played UNLV to the wire in a 2-point defeat. They did beat Boise State, which was a very good win. They were competitive against both Air Force and Wyoming when you look at the numbers, too. This is a massive step down in class for Colorado State after their gauntlet of a schedule over the last five weeks. They also get an extra day of rest after losing at Wyoming last Friday.
Colorado State has played six road games and only three home games, while San Diego State has played six home games and only three road games. The Rams have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well, especially when you consider the home/road discrepancy. They close with three very winnable games against SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii and could still get to a bowl with a lot to play for. I think the Rams get a good reset here knowing that's the case. It starts with a win and cover here against the dead Aztecs. Bet Colorado State Saturday.
|11-11-23||Arkansas State +12 v. South Alabama||14-21||Win||100||76 h 55 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +12
Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and coming off a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette. They have a tough remaining schedule so will be 'all in' in every game the rest of the way to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.
South Alabama is in the midst of a disappointing season. They were expected to contend for a Sun Belt title with 18 returning starters from a team that nearly won the title last year. But they lost to James Madison in their Sun Belt opener, and have since lost two more times in conference play to knock them out of title contention.
The 33-20 loss to Louisiana at home as 12-point favorites hurt two weeks ago, but they were still alive when they took on Troy last week. Their 28-10 loss to Troy ended all hope. Now I question their motivation the rest of the way. That loss to Troy was the kind of loss that could easily beat a team twice.
QB Carter Bradley got hurt against Louisiana and missed the Troy game because of it. He must have been really hurt to miss the Troy game with their season on the line. He is questionable to return this week, but my best guess is he doesn't play, and even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100%. Bradley completed 66% of his passes while averaging 8.5 per attempt this season, and there's a huge drop off to his backup.
The Jaguars have no business being 12-point favorites here over Arkansas State given their lack of motivation and the injury to Bradley. There's a ton of value here with the Red Wolves, who are live underdogs to pull off the upset once again. South Alabama is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet Arkansas State Saturday.
|11-11-23||New Mexico State +4.5 v. Western Kentucky||Top||38-29||Win||100||74 h 25 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +4.5
What more does New Mexico State have to do to get some respect? They are 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS this season and still lacking the respect they deserve as 4.5-point underdogs to a Western Kentucky team that they are better than. New Mexico State is trying to earn a berth to the C-USA Championship Game, and another win Saturday would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.
New Mexico State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in conference play with their lone loss coming to Liberty, the C-USA favorite that remains unbeaten this season. Western Kentucky is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play this season. New Mexico State is outgaining opponents by 15.5 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play in conference play. Western Kentucky is getting outgained by 28.2 yards per game and only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play in conference play. It's clear to me New Mexico State is the better team when you look at the numbers.
WKU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. They were upset by Jacksonville State and nothing was fluky about that defeat, getting outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards. They lost 42-29 to Liberty at home in their most important game of the season. Then last week they were fortunate to beat a terrible UTEP team as a 9-point favorite, actually getting outgained 368 to 280 by UTEP or by 88 total yards. They just aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being a 4.5-point favorite here.
The Aggies have a huge matchup advantage on the ground in this one. They rush for 203 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry. Western Kentucky allows 211 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. They are going to be able to get whatever they want on the ground, and they are the much more balanced offense in this one as WKU only averages 111 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. New Mexico State averages 222 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt this season. WKU only averages 6.7 passing yards per attempt.
The Aggies average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play. WKU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 6.0 per play on defense, actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.
New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. The Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. I fully expect the Aggies to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way. Bet New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-11-23||Alabama -10.5 v. Kentucky||49-21||Win||100||71 h 56 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide have quietly gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their loss to Texas and are hitting on all cylinders right now. They have their sights set on making the SEC Championship Game with a lot to play for the rest of the way. They will win the SEC West if they win out, so they won't be taking Kentucky lightly this week.
Back-to-back 14-point wins over both Tennessee and LSU were impressive, and now they take a step down in class here against a Kentucky team that fails every time they step up in class. Case in point being their 51-13 loss at Georgia four games back and their 38-21 home loss to Missouri, followed by their 33-27 home loss to Tennessee. They ended their 3-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have a ton of injuries right now and were playing with a backup QB to boot. I give them zero credit for that victory.
QB Devin Leary is questionable to play for Kentucky, but whoever is under center is going to have zero success against this elite Alabama defense. I would be surprised if Alabama doesn't hold Kentucky to a season low in points in this one, which will pave the way for them to covering this 10.5-point spread. Alabama's offense has averaged 38 points in their consecutive wins over LSU and Tennessee.
The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country while Kentucky has played the 65th-ranked schedule. That's a difference of 64 spots. Alabama is 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Kentucky with six of those seven wins coming by double-digits. It should be more of the same in this meeting with what the Crimson Tide have at stake here. Bet Alabama Saturday.
|11-11-23||Georgia Tech +14 v. Clemson||21-42||Loss||-105||71 h 56 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +14
Georgia Tech has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They are one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 and will be motivated to beat Clemson. They have already pulled off upsets against two of the best teams in the ACC in Miami as 19-point road dogs and UNC as 11.5-point home dogs, and those two efforts will give them the confidence to hang with Clemson as 14-point road dogs this weekend.
I question Clemson's motivation and what they have left in the tank. They have played four straight games that went down to the wire against Wake Forest in a 17-12 victory, Miami in a 28-20 loss, NC State in a 24-17 loss and Notre Dame in a 31-23 win. They are coming off that Notre Dame win, making this a classic letdown spot for them. Their offense isn't good enough to get margin against this Georgia Tech team that is going to keep coming.
Georgia Tech's offense put up 46 on UNC and 45 on Virginia the last two weeks and is an explosive unit. The Yellow Jackets average 6.8 yards per play while Clemson's offense averages 5.4 yards per play. No question Clemson has the better defense, but they only outgain opponents by 1.0 yards per play on the season while Georgia Tech is solid outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play. That slight edge for the Tigers doesn't warrant them being 14-point favorites here.
Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest. The Yelow Jackets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog. Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games with a total of 52.5 to 56. The yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yellow Jackets played one-score games against Louisville, UNC and Miami already this season, and this is likely to be a one-score game as well. Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.
|11-10-23||Wyoming v. UNLV -5.5||Top||14-34||Win||100||77 h 3 m||Show|
20* Wyoming/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV -5.5
The UNLV Rebels have been the most undervalued team in the entire country. They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and legit contenders to win the Mountain West. They won't be lacking any motivation tonight with Wyoming visiting Las Vegas in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere Friday night inside Allegiant Stadium.
UNLV is 4-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game. Wyoming has played six of its first nine games ad home. While Wyoming is 6-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 17.6 points per game. They are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 241.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their three road games.
Wyoming lacks a consistent passing attack averaging just 150 passing yards per game. They won't be able to take advantage of UNLV's one weakness, which is defending the pass. This is strength on strength here. Wyoming averages 152 rushing yards per game, and they'll be up against a UNLV defense that allows just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. They'll be able to stop Wyoming from running the football, which will be the key to their win and cover.
UNLV has a balanced offensive attack averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season with 201 rushing yards per game and 225 passing yards per game. Wyoming gave up 31-plus points in all three road games this season and isn't as good defensively as they get credit for. They will have a hard time matching up with UNLV's speed on the turf in this one.
UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 35 points or more. Bet UNLV Friday.
|11-09-23||Panthers v. Bears UNDER 40.5||13-16||Win||100||80 h 53 m||Show|
15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5
The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play. They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense.
The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games. They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss. Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again.
The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. He is likely to get the start again Thursday. He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game. The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior. Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983. Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season. They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-09-23||Panthers v. Bears -3||Top||13-16||Push||0||9 h 59 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago -3
I just added the Chicago Bears -3 Thursday morning as I have been leaning that way all week. But the line ballooned to -4 with the chance that Justin Fields may return at QB. Once he was announced out, it got back down to -3 and the value is there to pull the trigger on the Bears.
This Bears team is trending in the right direction even with Tyson Bagent at QB. They beat the Raiders 30-12 three weeks ago. Their 30-13 loss to the Chargers was very misleading as they were only outgained by 57 yards. And last week's loss to the Saints was also misleading as they lost 24-17 despite outgaining the Saints by 67 yards, but they were -5 in turnovers. Now they are back home where they were last seen beating the Raiders by 18.
The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games. They held the Saints to 301 yards last week. Now they will be up against a Carolina Panthers team that has one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Panthers rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 4.5 yards per play. They aren't going to be able to score much against this improving Chicago defense.
But the biggest reason I added the Bears -3 this morning is the laundry list of injuries the Panthers are dealing with right now. The Panthers are going to be without two of their best receivers in DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. Their best defensive player in LB Brian Burns is out after getting injured last week, as is starting CB CJ Henderson. Starting FS Xavier Woods is questionable as is starting SS Vonn Bell. The Panthers are an absolute mash unit right now with 21 players on the injury report compared to just 8 for Chicago.
The Panthers are 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in eight games this season with all seven losses by 3 points or more and six losses by 8 points or more. Their lone win came at the buzzer on a short FG at home after their bye week. They followed it up with a 27-13 home loss to the Colts last week, and I don't trust them to perform well here on a short week with all these injuries on the road. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season with all four losses coming by double-digits and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Bet the Bears Thursday.
|11-09-23||Southern Miss +10.5 v. UL-Lafayette||Top||34-31||Win||100||50 h 6 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss +10.5
Southern Miss is trending in the right direction late in the season under Will Hall, one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. Their last two games have been impressive. They lost 48-38 at Appalachian State as 15-point dogs in a misleading final as they outgained the Mountaineers and racked up 588 total yards in defeat. Then last week they crushed LA Monroe 24-7 as 3-point favorites and outgained them 448 to 260, or by 188 total yards.
Now the Golden Eagles are catching double-digits against a Louisiana team that is down to 3rd-string QB Chandler Fields. They lost 37-17 at Arkansas State last week as 7-point favorites and were outgained for a 4th consecutive game. That loss basically eliminated them from Sun Belt title contention.
The Rajin' Cajuns lost starting QB Ben Wooldridge early in the season. It was a blessing in disguise as backup Zeon Criss has been much better, completing 66.7% of his passes averaging 8.0 yards per attempt while also rushing for 492 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per attempt. Chandler Fields is a big downgrade and gives them noting on the ground. He completed 58.2% of his passes last season and averaged 6.2 per attempt. There's a reason he was demoted to 3rd string this season.
Southern Miss upset Louisiana 39-24 as 2.5-point home dogs last year. The Golden Eagles are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 road games after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more. Louisiana is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 34 or more points per game. The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game. Bet Southern Miss Thursday.
|11-08-23||Eastern Michigan +19 v. Toledo||23-49||Loss||-110||26 h 23 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +19
Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 8-1 record. The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 7-0 SU but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.
Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites. As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire.
Last week, they had no business covering in a misleading 31-13 win over Buffalo as 14.5-point favorites. They only outgained Buffalo by 28 yards in the game. They returned the opening kickoff for a TD and scored on a long run on their next possession that should have been a touchdown because they fumbled through the end zone. They needed a goal line stand on Buffalo's final possession to cover, too.
Toledo sits at 5-0 in the conference with a two-game lead over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West Division. They have margin for error, and I could see them going through the motions against this pesky Eastern Michigan team that has been a cash cow as an underdog under head coach Chris Creighton.
I think it's time to 'buy low' on Eastern Michigan off a missleading 45-21 loss to Western Michigan last time out. That game was played on October 28th, so they have had extra time to rest and prepare for Toledo. They have three extra days than the Rockets do. The Eagles were 4-0 ATS in their four previous games. I trust in Creighton to use this extra time wisely to come up with the proper game plan to keep this one competitive.
Each of the last two meetings in this series were decided by 3 points, and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or fewer. Toledo hasn't beaten Eastern Michigan by more than 17 points in any of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 19-point spread.
Creighton is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Eastern Michigan. Creighton is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Creighton is 16-4 ATS in road games off a conference loss. Creighton is 8-1 ATS following a game where they committed four or more turnovers. Jason Candle is 4-17 ATS following a conference home win as the coach of Toledo. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play last game. Bet Eastern Michigan Wednesday.
|11-07-23||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3||Top||28-38||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan -3
Western Michigan has the rest and preparation advantage here over Central Michigan. They last played on October 28th, while Central Michigan last played on October 31st. I think the Chippewas are overvalued here after upsetting Northern Illinois 37-31 at home. That was the aberration because they had been playing terribly prior to that upset win.
The Chippewas had gone 0-4 ATS in their previous four games. They lost 24-17 at Ball State as 5-point favorites, only beat Akron 17-10 as 10.5-point home favorites, lost 37-13 at Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites and only beat Eastern Michigan by 3 as 10-point home favorites. They struggled against all of the worst teams in the MAC during that stretch.
Now they have to go on the road to face a rested Western Michigan team that is quietly playing well right now. They are coming off a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite. They took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior. They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior. They covered in a 28-41 loss at Missisippi State as 21.5-point dogs. They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites. They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and should be 6-1 ATS their last seven, so they are a way undervalued commodity.
Central Michigan lacks a passing game averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game. They rush for 159.4 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and rank 101st in the country in total offense. Western Michigan allows 141.6 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry and can stop the run pretty well. The Broncos average 170 rushing yards per game on offense and will be up against a CMU defense that ranks 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry. They also have more balance with 211 passing yards per game, and are up against a CMU defense that ranks 115th against the pass and 118th at 8.2 yards per attempt.
WMU has played six road games and only three home games. They are 2-1 at home this season. CMU is 1-4 on the road compared to 4-0 at home. The Broncos cannot afford another loss if they want to get bowl eligible and have a legit shot to run the table. It starts with a home win over Central Michigan tonight. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.
|11-06-23||Chargers v. Jets +3.5||Top||27-6||Loss||-110||106 h 54 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +3.5
The Los Angeles Chargers should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets this week. I have these teams power-rated similarly as average teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage, the Jets should be favored. Instead, we are getting +3.5 on the home team here which is tremendous value.
What more do the Jets have to do to get some respect? They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss during this stretch came by 3 points to Kansas City. They upset Philadelphia outright as home underdogs. They also upset Buffalo outright in the opener as home dogs. If they can beat or play with all three of those teams at home, they can certainly beat or lose by 3 points or less to the Chargers.
What makes the Jets an average team is having one of the best defenses in the NFL coupled with a great rushing attack behind Breece Hall. They got great news on the injury front this week as LT Mekhi Becton, G Laken Tomlinson and C Joe Tippmann all returned to practice and should be good to go. They also opened the 21-day practice window on LT Duane Brown to return from injured reserve. They are pretty much fully healthy defensively and will give the Chargers fits.
The Chargers are getting too much respect for their 30-13 home win over the Bears last week on Sunday Night Football in a prime time game. They actually only outgained the Bears by 57 yards as it was closer than the final score. They also beat a rookie QB for the Bears who was playing in his first ever road game.
When the Chargers have stepped up in class against good defenses like the Jets, they have lost. They lost 31-17 at Kansas City, 20-17 at home to Dallas, 27-24 at Tennessee and 36-34 to Miami. As you can see against the two best defenses they faced, they only managed 17 points against the Chiefs and 17 against the Cowboys. I think the Jets are more than capable of holding them to 17 points or fewer in this one. They held the Chiefs to 23, the Bills to 16 and the Eagles to 14 to show what they are capable of.
The Chargers were already without WR Mike Williams which has taken away a lot of their explosiveness on offense because he was such a great deep threat. Josh Palmer continues to battle a knee injury and isn't 100%. Palmer missed practice on Thursday which is a good sign he won't be ready to play. Herbert's only two reliable weapons right now at Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield. Plus, the Chargers have a leaky defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 391 yards per game and 30th at 5.9 yards per play.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - a slow starting team getting outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are undervalued right now after playing in tough conditions in a 13-10 (OT) win over the Giants, who are playing everyone tough right now. The Chargers are overvalued off their blowout win over the lowly Bears. Bet the Jets Monday.
|11-05-23||Bills v. Bengals OVER 48||Top||18-24||Loss||-113||153 h 16 m||Show|
20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48
The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London.
The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards.
But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville. After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense. The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week.
Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him. He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games. The offense is basically fully healthy right now. Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out.
Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense. I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one. This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year. And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week.
The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win. They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win. They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%. The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities. They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.
The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-05-23||Giants v. Raiders OVER 37||6-30||Loss||-110||76 h 24 m||Show|
15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37
The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games. The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games. This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week.
There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week. The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM. They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way. He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers. I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard. O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior. He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play.
On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week. He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances. The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload. This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season.
This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week. The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week. Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense. New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen. They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him.
I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses. That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks. I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense.
The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total. But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total. They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami. This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER.
The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-05-23||Dolphins +2 v. Chiefs||Top||14-21||Loss||-110||66 h 28 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +2
I like the fact that Miami traveled out to Germany on Monday night and arrived Tuesday morning. They have had more time to acclimate to the jet lag that comes with this trip. The Chiefs aren't leaving until Thursday afternoon and won't have as much time to acclimate.
We saw the Ravens leave early in the week while the Titans went late in the week in the last London game. The Ravens jumped out to an 18-3 halftime lead and were clearly more ready to play. I think that could be the case here with the Dolphins more ready to play than the Chiefs.
The Dolphins are getting healthier on the offensive line and should get LT Terron Armstead and C Connor Williams back this week. They also just got Jalen Ramsey back from injury last week for the first time this season, and he made an instant impact with an interception against the Patriots.
I have faded the Dolphins in each of their two losses at Buffalo and at Philadelphia this season. But those were tough road games and they weren't at full strength in either of them. The Bills were pissed off and wanting to prove a point, while the Dolphins were missing three starters on the offensive line against the Eagles.
This is being played on a neutral field and I think the Dolphins match up well with the Chiefs. I also think the Dolphins have heard all week about how they can't beat a good team because they are 6-2 this season, but both losses came against the two best teams they faced. They want to make a statement here against the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think they are primed to do so now that they are healthy.
The Chiefs lost LB Nick Bolton and now fellow LB Willie Gay is questionable. Their defense has been good to this point, but we could see them slip a little here in the immediate future with these injuries at LB. This is a big step up in class for this Chiefs defense after facing the Broncos twice, the Bears, Jets, Vikings, and the Chargers in their last six games coming in. So their 6-2 record is a little fraudulent as well with their only real quality win being against Jacksonville.
The extra travel won't give them as much time to prepare for this Miami offense, which has been the best in the NFL this season at 33.9 points per game, 453.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play. Meanwhile, this Chiefs offense is just broken. They have been held to 20 points or fewer four times already this season. They can't get separation and they are too predictable relying so much on Travis Kelce. The Dolphins will game plan around stopping Kelce like the Broncos did last week, limiting him to 6 receptions for 58 yards in a 24-9 victory.
The Chiefs won't be able to run the ball on this Miami defense, which has allowed 108 or fewer rushing yards in seven consecutive games. They allow just 329 yards per game and 5.4 per play overall and are much better on this side of the ball than they get credit for, especially with a healthy Ramsey back now which will open up Vic Fangio's defense. There's talk of Ramsey covering Kelce which would be a wise move, and that's why I love this matchup for Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-04-23||Miami-FL v. NC State +4.5||6-20||Win||100||99 h 4 m||Show|
15* Miami/NC State ACC ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5
The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now. They should not be favored on the road over the NC State Wolfpack Saturday night. We'll gladly take this value and take these points in a game I think NC State wins outright.
Miami opened 4-0 against a soft schedule, but has since gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and were fortunate to cover in the lone game they did. They lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites which started this skid. They then lost 31-41 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs. They beat Clemson 28-20 at home as 5.5-point dogs, and Clemson is down this season. And they were life and death with Virginia in a 29-26 (OT) win as 18.5-point home favorites last week. They were outgained 377 to 276 by Virginia, or by 101 total yards.
NC State has played very well at home of late. They are coming off a 24-17 win as 10-point home dogs to Clemson last week. They had a bye prior to that game, so they will still be fresh here. Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and is running out of gas. NC State also beat Marshall 48-41 as 6.5-point home favorites. They only lost 13-10 to Louisville as 3.5-point dogs, and Louisville is 7-1 this season and a ACC title contender.
Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 conference games. Mario Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games vs. teams that allow 58% or higher completions as the coach of Miami. Cristobal is 2-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Miami. Bet NC State Saturday.
|11-04-23||Washington -3 v. USC||52-42||Win||100||80 h 1 m||Show|
15* Washington/USC ABC ANNIHILATOR on Washington -3
USC is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 100.5 points, or an average of 16.8 points per game. They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame. The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.
They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory. Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season against unbeaten Washington, and the Trojans are once again getting too much respect as only 3-point home dogs.
We are getting Washington at a discount because they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games against Arizona State and Stanford. But the Huskies were in a massive letdown spot following the home win over Oregon the game prior. No question a team like USC is going to get their attention, and I think we can expect Washington's best effort this week. Especially after they didn't even open in the Top 4 in the college football playoff rankings, which will add to their motivation to try and get some national recognition on this Nationally televised game on ABC Saturday night.
Washington has the better offense and the better defense in this matchup. The Huskies average 8.0 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play. The Trojans average 7.5 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play. The Trojans also allow 32.6 points per game while the Huskies only allow 20.6 points per game.
Washington had a bye prior to the Oregon game and will only be playing for a 4th consecutive week here. USC is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week. The defense is gassed playing in shootout after shootout and won't have anything left in the tank for this Washington offense. The Trojans have allowed 49, 34, 48, 41 and 41 points in their last five games, respectively. Bet Washington Saturday.
|11-04-23||Kansas v. Iowa State -1||Top||28-21||Loss||-110||147 h 58 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1
The Iowa State Cyclones have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Oklahoma. They beat Oklahoma State 34-27 at home, beat TCU 27-14 at home, beat Cincinnati 30-10 on the road and beat Baylor 30-18 on the road. The Cyclones just seem to play better when expectations are low, and they are flying under the radar right now.
This will be a great atmosphere with a sold out crowd at Jack Trice Stadium for a 7:00 EST kickoff Saturday night. The Cyclones want revenge from a 14-11 loss at Kansas last year in one of the most misleading losses of the season. They outgained Kansas 323 to 215, or by 108 total yards, but lost by 3. They were last seen beating Kansas 59-7 in their last home meeting. They will be going for their 6th win of the season for bowl eligibility and are tied for 1st place in the Big 12, so they won't be lacking any motivation.
The spot couldn't be worse for Kansas. They are coming off their first win over Oklahoma since 1997. It was their first regular season win over a Top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over a Top 10 opponent in Lawrence since 1984. It was a historic win for Kansas and head coach Lance Leipold as they are now bowl eligible for a second consecutive season. This has letdown spot written all over it for the Jayhawks.
The Sooners have been trending in the wrong direction since beating Texas. They escaped with a 2-point win over UCF at home the previous week needing to stop a 2-point conversion. Their luck ran out last week against Kansas, so the win wasn't as impressive as it looked on paper. The Sooners also helped give them the game by committing three turnovers.
There is a huge discrepancy between these two defenses. Iowa State plays defense and Kansas doesn't. The Cyclones allow 19.8 points per game, 330 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season to rank 28th in total defense, 24th in scoring defense and 20th in yards per play allowed. Kansas ranks 89th in scoring defense allowing 28.1 points per game, 100th in total defense at 401.6 yards per game and 100th with 6.0 yards per play allowed.
Kansas has not fared well on the road this season going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games. They only beat Nevada 31-24 as a 28-point road favorite, and Nevada is one of the worst teams in all of college football. They lost 40-14 at Texas as 15.5-point dogs in a game that wasn't even that close. They allowed 661 yards to Texas. And they lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point favorites while giving up 554 total yards to the Cowboys.
Kansas is now 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games dating back to last season with all six losses coming by 7 points or more. Kansas hasn't won at Iowa State since 2008. Plays against road underdogs (Kansas) - off an upset conference win as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent that is off a double-digit road win are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS since 1992. Matt Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-04-23||Utah State -2.5 v. San Diego State||Top||32-24||Win||100||98 h 4 m||Show|
20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2.5
Both Utah State and San Diego State sit at 3-5 this season. But these records are now created equal. Utah State is unfortunate to be 3-5, while San Diego State is fortunate to be 3-5. When you look at the numbers, there's a big difference between these teams and Utah State is favored on the road here for good reason.
Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch. It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to Nevada, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football. They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers. And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.
Utah State played Air Force much tougher than San Diego State did. They also took both James Madison and Fresno State to the wire, which are the top two teams in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively. I know the Aggies are going to show up every week for head coach Gary Anderson as he gets the most out of his teams.
Let's look at the numbers to see why Utah State is by far the superior team. The Aggies are averaging 35.3 points pre game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.
San Diego State is gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play. The Aztecs have a terrible offense every year and this season has been no exception, averaging just 19.6 points per game. The difference is they usually have a great defense, but this is their worst defense in over a decade. They allow 28.1 points per game, 419 yards per game and 6.3 per play this season. Most alarming is the 5.0 yards per carry they are giving up on the ground.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Utah State last won 46-13 at San Diego State in 2021. The Aztecs will have zero home-field advantage for this one as fans just aren't supporting this 3-5 team. They were fortunate to win their first two home games this season against Ohio and Idaho State by a single score. They have since lost their last three home games by 25 to UCLA, by 3 to Boise State and that shutout loss to Nevada. Bet Utah State Saturday.
|11-04-23||Illinois v. Minnesota -125||27-26||Loss||-125||95 h 34 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota ML -125
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are tied for first place in the Big Ten West and playing their best football of the season right now. They upset Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago while limiting the Hawkeyes to just 127 total yards and forcing three turnovers. They avoided the letdown last week, winning 27-12 at home against Michigan State while outgaining them by 101 yard and holding them to 299 yards.
They certainly won't let down against Illinois here. Illinois was in Big Ten West title contention last year, but now they are just trying to make a bowl game and finding it hard to be motivated right now sitting at 3-5 on the season. They are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Wisconsin where they blew it late in the 4th quarter, and it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat now.
Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season after what they did last year and continue to be this week as basically a PK against Minnesota on the road. Illinois is 1-7 ATS in their eight games this season. That includes a 44-19 loss at Purdue, a 6-point win home win over a bad FAU team as 16-point favorites, and an upset home loss to Nebraska by 17.
The team that runs the football with more success is going to win this game. That team is going to be Minnesota. The Gophers average 175 rushing yards per game and hold opponents to just 118 rushing yards per game. Illinois averages just 137 rushing yards per game and allows 161 rushing yards per game. The Fighting Illini aren't nearly as dominant on the ground as they were last season, which is the biggest reason for their demise this season. Bet Minnesota on the Money Line Saturday.
|11-04-23||Missouri +16 v. Georgia||21-30||Win||100||95 h 33 m||Show|
15* Missouri/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +16
The Missouri Tigers are a legit SEC East title contender this season and clearly the 2nd-best team in the division. Now they are out to prove it this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs. The spot couldn't be better for the Tigers as they are coming off a bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for the defending champs.
The spot couldn't be much worse for Georgia, coming off a 43-20 win over their biggest rivals in the Florida Gators last week. That now makes this a flat spot for the Bulldogs. We saw this play out last year as Missouri nearly upset Georgia, losing 26-22 as 31-point home dogs. They proved they could play with Georgia last year, and now Missouri is better this year while Georgia is down.
That has been evident with the Bulldogs going 2-5-1 ATS in their eight games this season. They only beat South Carolina by 10, Auburn by 7 and Vanderbilt by 17. They just have a way of playing up or down to their competition. Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC and the Bulldogs were in dog fights with all three of them.
Missouri is very close to being 8-0 this season. They blew a late 4-point lead to LSU, and that loss doesn't look too bad now with how well LSU is playing. They beat South Carolina by 22 at home, Kentucky by 17 on the road and Vanderbilt by 17 on the road. They also upset Kansas State at home, and Kansas State is playing very well right now.
The Tigers have elite numbers averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They have also played a much tougher schedule than Georgia ranking 51st in SOS while Georgia ranks 81st in SOS. This will be Georgia's stiffest test of the season thus far, and not having TE Brock Bowers may really hurt them this week as he was Carson Beck's favorite target. Bowers leads the team with 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD.
Kerby Smart is 1-8 ATS in home games off three straight conference wins as the coach of Georgia. The Bulldogs are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off three straight conference wins. Georgia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Missouri Saturday.
|11-04-23||Virginia Tech +10 v. Louisville||Top||3-34||Loss||-115||73 h 26 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +10
Virginia Tech is a team on the rise and flying under the radar going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards. The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.
The Hokies then crushed Wake Forest 30-13 two weeks ago and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards. And last week they crushed Syracuse 38-10 while outgaining the Orange 528 to 138, or by 390 total yards. That game was played on Thursday so the Hokies have extra time to rest and prepare for Louisville this Saturday.
The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback. Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies. Drones is completing 59% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 400 yards and 4 scores. His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.
The Hokies have what it takes to be competitive against Louisville, which I think is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Cardinals are 7-1 against a very soft schedule up to this point. Their 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh just shows how vulnerable this team can be. Pittsburgh went on to lose to a bad Wake Forest team and to get blasted 58-7 by Notre Dame. Keep in mind Louisville was in dog fights against both NC State and Indiana earlier this season as well. This one will go down to the wire. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|11-04-23||Arizona State +11 v. Utah||Top||3-55||Loss||-110||122 h 46 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +11
I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition. The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games.
The Sun Devils returned from their bye and I released them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington. They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead. They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.
No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did. He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.
I was back on Arizona State +6 last week as they pulled the 38-27 upset victory over Washington State at home while racking up 509 total yards on the Cougars. And now I'm back on ASU again this week as this team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers due to their misleading 2-6 record.
But this is a play against Utah as much as anything. The Utes won the Pac-12 Championship each of the last two seasons and are used to contending for conference titles. Well, they are all but eliminated from title contention now after losing 35-6 at home to Oregon last week. That was a rare home loss for the Utes, and it just shows how far they have fallen this season by not having a legit QB and with all the injuries they have sustained.
Asking Utah to get margin and win by double-digits against ASU with their current offense is asking too much. Oregon held Utah to just 241 total yards. Oregon State held Utah to 210 total yards. UCLA held Utah to 219 total yards. Utah is actually getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play on the season, while ASU is dead even, averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense. They have been even better since getting healthy in Pac-12 play. Utah is overvalued due to his misleading 6-2 record.
Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 66 points in those five games. They remain grossly undervalued here as double-digit road dogs to a Utah team that is going to be flat after being eliminated from Pac-12 title contention with that loss to Oregon. This is also an early start time at 2:00 EST which isn't nearly as big of a home-field advantage for Utah as when games are played in Salt Lake City at night. Bet Arizona State Saturday.
|11-04-23||Texas A&M v. Ole Miss -3||35-38||Push||0||91 h 5 m||Show|
15* Texas A&M/Ole Miss ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -3
Ole Miss sits at 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with a legit chance to win the SEC West. The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with a massive home-field advantage. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies today.
Texas A&M sits at 5-3 and out of SEC title contention. They were lackluster in their 30-17 home win over a bad, injury-ravaged South Carolina team last week. And I don't expect them to fire here against Ole Miss, either. After all, the Aggies are now 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight true road games. They lost 48-33 at Miami and 20-13 at Tennessee in their only two true road games this season.
Ole Miss beat LSU at home earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home. They put up 55 points and 716 total yards on the Tigers in that contest. Their defense has been very good this season, holding opponents to 21.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. Texas A&M struggles on offense this season, especially since losing QB Conner Weigman to injury. Ole Miss is basically fully healthy coming into this one and one of the most healthy teams in the country.
Jimbo Fisher is 1-12 ATS vs. teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. Fisher is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of Texas A&M having never covered in this situation. Bet Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-03-23||Boston College +125 v. Syracuse||Top||17-10||Win||125||97 h 22 m||Show|
20* Boston College/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College ML +125
These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet. Boston College is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Boston College should not be an underdog to Syracuse Friday night.
Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road. They have since stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games. They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina, 41-3 at Florida State and 38-10 at Virginia Tech. The Orange were outscored a combined 140-34 in those four defeats. They are dead in the water right now and lacking motivation to finish out the season.
Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-0 in its last four games overall to get to 5-3 on the season and just one win away from bowl eligibility. The Eagles have held four straight opponents to 24 points or fewer. BC QB Thomas Castellanos will be the best player on the field. He is completing 59% of his passes for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 673 yards and 9 TD while averaging 5.4 per carry. He leads a BC offense that is averaging 28.1 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.8 per play.
Keep in mind BC gave Florida State their toughest test of the season in a 2-point home loss (31-29) to the Seminoles. To compare, Syracuse was blasted 41-3 by the Seminoles. They followed that up by getting outgained 528 to 138 by the Hokies last week, or by 390 total yards. That was the final nail in their coffin, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat tonight in time to face BC.
Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. Bet Boston College on the Money Line Friday.
|11-02-23||Titans +3 v. Steelers||Top||16-20||Loss||-110||43 h 52 m||Show|
20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +3
Some short weeks in the NFL for these Thursday night games are not created equal. This isn't as bad of a spot for the Titans as it normally would be for most teams. The Titans had a bye two weeks ago prior to beating Atlanta 28-23 at home last week. They should still be very fresh for this one, and they came out of that Atlanta game very healthy.
The Titans got a big boost with the insertion of Will Levis in at quarterback. It was their best offensive output of the season against a very good Atlanta defense last week. They put up 28 points and 375 total yards on the Falcons. Levis threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, including three to DeAndre Hopkins as the team finally found a way to use one of the best wideouts in the league with Levis under center.
I don't expect Levis to be as good in his first road start here against Pittsburgh. However, I think the Titans are the better team right now and should not be catching 3 points. The Titans are an average NFL team, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by just 0.1 yards per play.
The Steelers have the stats of one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their 4-3 record, which is a fraudulent 4-3 record. The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.1 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 111 yards per game this season and are the only NFL team to be outgained in every single game they have played in.
The Steelers have been living off of turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns, which is unsustainable. Even with several non-offensive touchdowns this season, the Steelers are still averaging just 16.1 points per game and 272 yards per game. They have the worst offense in the entire NFL in my opinion.
QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of their 20-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week, and Mitch Trubisky wasn't any better as his replacement. Pickett says he's going to play this week through injury. The last time he said that and played through injury, the Steelers were blasted 30-6 at Houston. They have no running game, and Pickett has not lived up to the hype.
This Pittsburgh defense has been good at creating turnovers, but not much more. The Steelers are allowing 383 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in yards per play. They are also 27th against the run, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. That's bad news for them going up against Derrick Henry as the Titans rank 7th in the NFL at 4.5 yards per carry this season. Pittsburgh is without its best player in the secondary in S Minkah Fitzpatrick as well.
The Steelers could easily be 0-7 this season. They are being overvalued due to their 4-3 record. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Titans Thursday.
|11-02-23||South Alabama v. Troy -5||Top||10-28||Win||100||73 h 15 m||Show|
20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy -5
The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now. Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season. The Trojans have since gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS and should have covered in all five games.
They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards. They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards. They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards. They beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards. And last week they beat Texas State 31-13 as 6.5-point road favorites.
The Trojans have elite numbers this season averaging 442 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. They are outgaining their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play. Now they are home here against a South Alabama team they have owned, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring them by an average of 17.0 points per game in the five wins.
South Alabama is down this season. They have a couple very bad losses to Central Michigan outright as 16.5-point home favorites and Louisiana outright by 13 as 12-point home favorites. QB Carter Bradley exited the Louisiana game last week with a knee injury, and he is very questionable to play this week. Having Bradley at anything less than 100% gives the Jaguars almost zero chance of being competitive in this game. He is completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,156 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.
Troy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 conference games. South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt. The Trojans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play. Bet Troy Thursday.
|11-02-23||TCU v. Texas Tech -3||Top||28-35||Win||100||73 h 45 m||Show|
20* TCU/Texas Tech FS1 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3
Texas Tech is coming off two misleading losses in a row that are providing us with some line value on the Red Raiders as only 3-point favorites here against a down TCU team. We'll take advantage as this is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Red Raiders in what will be a tremendous atmosphere Thursday night at home in Lubbock.
Texas Tech lost 38-21 at home to Kansas State two games back despite outgaining the Wildcats 480 to 435, or by 45 total yards. The Red Raiders lost 27-14 at BYU last time out despite outgaining the Cougars 389 to 227, or by 112 total yards. They also played 3rd-string QB Jake Strong in both of those games, and he threw 6 interceptions while the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle a combined 8-0 in those two games.
But now the Red Raiders get back their best quarterback in Behren Morton from a two-game absence. Morton has an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a big upgrade over Strong. They beat Houston 49-28 and Baylor 39-14 in their last two games with Morton under center.
TCU lost starting QB Chandler Morris to a season-ending injury in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State. They were able to win without him against BYU at home the next week, but then were blasted 41-3 at Kansas State last week. Backup Josh Hoover just isn't as good. He is completing 59.3% of his passes, averaging 6.5 per attempt with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio. Hoover doesn't give them anything in the run game unlike Morris, who is a dual-threat and averaged 5.5 per carry.
This TCU defense isn't very good. They allowed 41 points and 587 total yards to Kansas State last week, and the Wildcats don't have that potent of an offense. They did whatever they wanted to against TCU, rushing for 343 yards and throwing for 244.
The Red Raiders led TCU 17-13 going into the 4th quarter last year but let it slip away in what was a perfect regular season for the Horned Frogs, who eventually lost to Georgia in the National Championship. They want revenge from that game, which will add to their motivation. After playing for so much more last year, I question how motivated the Horned Frogs will be the rest of the way now that they sit at 4-4 on the season and out of Big 12 title contention.
Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss. The Red Raiders are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a conference road loss. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game. Bet Texas Tech Thursday.
|11-01-23||Ball State v. Bowling Green -5||21-24||Loss||-110||49 h 45 m||Show|
15* Ball State/Bowling Green ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -5
Bowling Green is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Falcons have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with double-digit wins over Georgia Tech by 10, Buffalo by 10 and Akron by 27. That win over Georgia Tech looks really good now after the Yellow Jackets upset both UNC and Miami.
Ball State is one of the worst teams in the country. The Cardinals are 2-6 this season scoring just 16.1 points per game and averaging 295 yards per game on offense. They don't have the firepower to keep up with Bowling Green. The Falcons also have the better defense in this one limiting opponents to 25.0 points per game and 331 yards per game, while the Cardinals allow 29.0 points per game and 362 yards per game.
Ball State has some really concerning losses of late. They lost 40-3 at home to Georgia Southern. They lost 42-24 at Western Michgian, which is one of the worst teams in the country. They lost 24-10 at Eastern Michigan, which is also one of the worst teams in the country. Their lone win in their last five games came against Central Michigan at home by 7, and CMU is also one of the worst teams in the country.
The Cardinals are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 12.8 points per game and allowing 38.8 points per game, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game away from home. Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a home game. Bet Bowling Green Wednesday.
|10-31-23||Buffalo +16 v. Toledo||13-31||Loss||-109||25 h 15 m||Show|
15* Buffalo/Toledo ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +16
Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 7-1 record. The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.
Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites. As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire, and that will be the case tonight against Buffalo.
Buffalo is a team I was fading a lot early in the season, but I have come around to them of late. The Bulls are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 7 as Louisiana as 10.5-point road dogs, won outright as dogs at Akron, crushed Central Michigan 37-13 as home dogs, lost by 10 to Bowling Green as 3-point favorites and beat Kent State by 18 as 6.5-point road favorites. Keep in mind Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia Tech has beaten both Miami and UNC.
Buffalo pulled the outright upset 34-27 as 7-point home dogs against Toledo last season. They can hang on the road in the rematch here as 16-point dogs. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games played on turf. Toledo is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Rockets almost never cover in this price range and haven't all season. Bet Buffalo Tuesday.
|10-30-23||Raiders v. Lions -8||Top||14-26||Win||100||152 h 6 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Lions ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -8
This is a 'buy low' spot on the Detroit Lions after getting blown out 38-6 at Baltimore last week. You could see it coming a mile away and I had a 25* play on the Ravens in that game. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and were as healthy as they had been all season. Plus, the Lions were banged up and even took practice off on Wednesday of last week to try and get healthier. But their lack of preparation for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens showed. Plus, 20-plus MPH winds hurt their offense.
Now the Lions are back in the dome in Detroit and highly motivated to get back on track. They have the lowly Las Vegas Raiders coming to town. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Lions have feasted on bottom feeders this season. They were in dog fights with the Chiefs and Seahawks earlier this season, but they have blown out the sisters of the poor, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the likes of the Falcons in a 20-6 victory, the Packers in a 34-20 victory, the Panthers in a 42-24 victory and the Bucs in a 20-6 victory. The Raiders are in the same class as those four teams, if not worse.
The Raiders were just blown out 30-12 on the road by the Chicago Bears last week. They are held to 235 total yards in defeat. Brian Hoyer was the starter, but it hasn't matter who has started at QB even if a hobbled Jimmy G returns this week. This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Raiders average just 16.0 points per game, 284.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.
A big problem for this Raiders offense is that after leading the league in rushing last year, Josh Jacobs and this offensive line have been a major disappointment. The Raiders only rush for 69 yards per game and 3.0 per carry. They won't be able to get anything on the ground against this Detroit defense, which is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. That's going to put a lot on Jimmy G's shoulders if he does return, and I just don't think the Raiders can keep up in a shootout because they are not going to stop Detroit.
The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 24.9 points per game, 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. They have been at their best at home in a controlled environment, averaging 31.0 points per game, 384 yards per game and 6.3 per play in their three home games. They will get back on track offensively this week. The Raiders have key injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and on the defensive line. K Daniel Carlson is also battling a groin injury.
Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 35 points or more. The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Lions Monday.
|10-29-23||Ravens -7.5 v. Cardinals||Top||31-24||Loss||-104||164 h 60 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -7.5
Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Ravens -1.5/Lions -1.5.
I'm very high on the Ravens right now and very low on the Cardinals. That has been evident the last two weeks as I've backed the Ravens twice with success, and faded the Cardinals last week. So it should come as no surprise I'm backing the Ravens and fading the Cardinals this week and fully expect this to be the biggest blowout of the week in pro football.
The Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season right now. They played up to their potential with a 38-6 home win over Detroit last week. The Ravens racked up 503 total yards and 9.1 per play and held the Lions to 337 total yards and 4.7 per play. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has this Ravens offense revved up right now, and the defense is arguably the best in the league.
Indeed, the Ravens have elite numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They should be 7-0 right now as they gave the games away in their two losses to the Colts and Steelers. But now they are playing with their foot squarely on the gas and will continue to do so against Arizona.
I'll gladly lay this single-digit number against an Arizona Cardinals team that is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight losses by double-digits. They lost 35-16 at San Francisco, 34-20 at home to Cincinnati, 26-9 at the LA Rams and 20-10 at Seattle. They lost by 10 at Seattle last week despite being +3 in turnovers and that game should have been a bigger blowout.
Their offense is in shambles right now scoring just 13.8 points per game in their last four games. Their offensive struggles have coincided with the loss of James Conner, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt. They have averaged 3.5 yards per carry without him. Josh Dobbs was in manageable 3rd down situations with Conners, but now he's in too many 3rd and longs without him. He isn't handling it very well.
Arizona is now the team that we all thought they would be coming into the season, which was the worst team in the NFL. They are just biding their time until Kyler Murray returns, which won't be this week. They may not play him at all, and it's a big distraction right now. The Cardinals have been terrible defensively this season, allowing 26.0 points per game, 368.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. They are injury-ravaged defensively as well and worn down because they have been on the field so much the last four weeks. They really need a bye but don't have one in the near future.
The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL in their current form and the Cardinals are arguably the worst. The Ravens should be bigger favorites here as a result. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|10-29-23||Browns v. Seahawks -130||Top||20-24||Win||100||164 h 39 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks ML -130
The Seattle Seahawks should be 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but instead are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. I think their misleading loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago is creating line value here for future games. I capitalized by backing the Seahawks in their 20-10 win over Arizona last week despite being -3 in turnovers in another misleading final.
They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards. They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play. The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points. They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line. That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.
While the Seahawks are coming off two misleading results where they dominated the box score but lost the turnover battle, the Cleveland Browns are coming off two misleading wins that are creating line value here on the home favorite. I faded the Browns last week with the Colts and cashed my ticket, but the Browns still won the game by 1 in a game they had no business winning.
The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses two weeks ago in their 19-17 win over the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game. The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it. Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.
Their golden horseshoe stayed in their asses again last week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play. Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.
The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown. I think their luck runs out this week.
The Browns won't have QB Deshaun Watson or RB Jerome Ford for this one. Marquise Goodwin, Sione Takitaki and Jedrick Willis all missed practice on Thursday due to various injuries. It will be PJ Walker at QB again, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Walker will be up against an underrated Seattle deense that allows just 19.7 points per game, 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play. Their defensive strength is stopping the run, allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. They are going to force Walker to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think he'll be able to do it on the road in a hostile environment.
The Seahawks did not have WR DK Metcalf last week against the Cardinals. But he returned to practice and is expected to play this week. Seattle is much healthier than Cleveland coming into this one and the better team in their current state. That's why I'm taking them at a short money line price here when they should be much bigger favorites.
The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.
|10-29-23||Saints v. Colts -116||38-27||Loss||-116||156 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts ML -116
The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville two weeks ago. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.
That misleading result against the Jaguars created line value on the Colts last week, and I backed them as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Browns. Now we have another misleading result against the Browns that is creating line value on the Colts again this week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.
Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland. The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.
What I want to focus on here is that the Colts put up 456 total yards and 6.8 per play against a Cleveland defense that most thought was the best defense in the NFL coming into the week. Gardner Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores against that defense. He has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career. Well, the Browns run the 2nd-most man coverage in the NFL this season under Jim Schwartz. Only the New Orleans Saints run more man coverage than the Browns.
Now Minshew gets to go up against this man-heavy Saints scheme this week. I know the Colts can get their on offense with a balanced attack as they also rushed for 168 yards on the Browns last week behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who combined for 36 carries and are a great 1-2 punch at running back.
I'm also certain this New Orleans offense is great between the 20's but terrible when they get inside the red zone. That has been a problem for them all season, especially the last two weeks. They have won the yardage battle in consecutive losses to the Texans and Jaguars, but it's not as impressive because it's predictable. They get in the red zone and bog down. They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 37.5%. The Colts rank 12th at 58.33%, and I expect that to be the difference in this game with the Colts capitalizing on more scoring opportunities than the Saints.
You could see Derek Carr visibly upset last week with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. They aren't on the same page right now. You could also see Carr visibly bothered by a groin injury suffered in the 4th quarter in their home loss to the Jaguars. It has all been dink and dunk for Carr this season, making this a great matchup for this Colts defense. They have some of the best linebackers in the NFL and they are great at covering running backs out of the backfield like Alvin Kamara.
The Saints are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season. The are so predictable. They are averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 per play on defense while playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. The Colts are averaging 5.6 per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense while playing a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses and defenses.
The Colts have played the 7th-toughest schedule to this point while the Saints have played the 6th-easiest schedule. But the schedule gets easier for the Colts with their next five games coming against the Siants, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans. They know they have a chance to make some headway, and it starts this week with a win and cover against the Saints. Shane Steichen is one of the best schemers against man coverage, and I think the Colts have a big coaching edge here over Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-28-23||UNLV +7.5 v. Fresno State||24-31||Win||100||95 h 58 m||Show|
15* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7.5
UNLV is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season with its lone loss at Michigan and a legit contender to win the Mountain West. There will be no letdown this week with a meeting with defending MWC champion Fresno State. I expect another big effort from the Rebels this week, and it should be good enough to stay within one score of the Bulldogs and possibly pull off the upset here.
Fresno State has a big problem right now at quarterback. Mikey Keene missed the last game with injuries to both of his legs and is highly questionable to return this week. Keene is completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He is a big upgrade over backup Logan Fife, who could be forced into action again here.
Fresno State is fortunate to be 6-1 with three wins already by 5 points or less. The only teams they got margin on were two of the worst teams in all of college football in Kent State and Nevada. They just shouldn't be this big of a favorite over a team the caliber of UNLV. QB Jayden Maiava is one of the top recruits in program history and is living up to the hype. He is completing 64.9% of his passes and averaging 8.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 142 yards and 4.6 per carry.
UNLV was not very good each of the last two seasons and still played Fresno State to a one-score game in both while covering the spread with ease each time. This one will be decided by one score either way, too.
Plays on road underdogs (UNLV) - off two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet UNLV Saturday.
|10-28-23||Washington State v. Arizona State +6||27-38||Win||100||93 h 36 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +6
I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition. The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games.
The Sun Devils returned from their bye last week and I release them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington. They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead. They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.
No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did. He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.
It's safe to say the Sun Devils are motivated for their first Pac-12 victory after coming so close in all four conference games thus far. I think they catch a Washington State team here that they can handle. Washington State lost 25-17 at UCLA, 44-6 at home to Arizona and 38-24 at Oregon in its last three games coming in. The Cougars have rushed for a total of 104 yards in those three losses combined, so they are clearly only reliant on throwing to move the football. That makes this a great matchup for this ASU defense, which has schemed well against the pass in recent weeks.
This Washington State defense has not been good at all, allowing 438 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. The Cougars allow 162 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry as well as 276 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt. Arizona State wants to run the ball and will be able to do so. Arizona State's defense allows 26.4 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Sun Devils are holding opponents 1.1 yards per play below their season averages. I'll gladly side with the much better defense as a home underdog here.
Washington State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a conference road loss. Arizona State is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games vs. terrible rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game. Bet Arizona State Saturday.
|10-28-23||Old Dominion +20.5 v. James Madison||Top||27-30||Win||100||92 h 29 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion +20.5
James Madison is 7-0 and just got ranked inside the Top 25 which is a huge accomplishment as a program. That makes this a massive letdown spot for the Dukes, who are fat and happy right now and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to that 7-0 record, but especially after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Dukes, who have been fortunate in close games this season winning four of their seven games by 8 points or less, or by one score. Another win came by 11 points. Asking them to beat Old Dominion by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.
Old Dominion has quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and is flying under the radar even with that perfect 5-0 ATS record. The Monarchs haven't lost a game by more than 19 points all season. The two recent losses were impressive losing by 3 to Wake Forest as 14-point dogs and by 6 at Marshall as 14.5-point dogs.
Old Dominion pulled the 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs, pulled the 17-13 upset as 3-point road dogs at Southern Miss, and pulled the 28-21 upset as 6-point home dogs to Appalachian State last week. The Monarchs had a bye prior to that win over Appalachian State, so they should still be very fresh for this game this weekend.
Old Dominion quietly has great numbers this season averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite playing a tougher schedule than James Madison. The Dukes have great numbers as well outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play, but that margin doesn't warrant them being anywhere near a 20.5-point favorite here.
Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good passing teams that complete 62% or better. Plays on road underdogs (Old Dominion) - following two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Old Dominion Saturday.
|10-28-23||Troy -4.5 v. Texas State||31-13||Win||100||91 h 29 m||Show|
15* Troy/Texas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy -4.5
The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now. Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season. The Trojans have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS and should have covered in all four games.
They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards. They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards. They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards. Then last time out they beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.
Texas State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-2 record, but the Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country. Their last four wins have come against Jackson State, Nevada, Southern MIss and LA-Monroe. They struggled to get separation with an 11-point win over Nevada, a 14-point win over Southern Miss and a 1-point win over LA-Monroe. This team just isn't as good as their record, while Troy is much better than its record.
Troy is gaining 6.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play. Texas State is at 6.8 yards per play on offense and 5.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. But that's not that impressive when you consider they have played the 116th toughest-schedule in the country while Troy has played the 67th.
Both teams have very good offenses, but the big difference here is the defenses. Troy allows 285 yards per game and 4.6 per play. Texas State allows 410 yards per game and 5.6 per play, including 162 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game. Troy is going to be able to do whatever it wants to on offense, and the Trojans will get enough stops on defense to win this game by a TD or more.
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Texas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more yards. The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games following a bye week.
|10-28-23||Arkansas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 56.5||Top||34-24||Win||100||89 h 29 m||Show|
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/UL-Monroe OVER 56.5
My handicap on football totals always starts with checking the weather. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night with temps in the 80's, only a 10% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.
These are two of the worst defenses in the country. Monroe ranks 124th out of 133 teams in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 116th in scoring at 32.7 points per game allowed. Arkansas State has been even worse, ranking 128th at 456.4 yards per game, 128th at 6.5 yards per play and 125th in scoring at 35.1 points per game.
I like taking OVERS later in the season between two bad teams with little to play for because there tends to be a care-free attitude and it usually favors offense over defense. When Arkansas State has taken a step down in class recently, shootouts have ensued.
Arkansas State went for 81 combined points in a 44-37 home win over Southern Miss. The Red Wolves went for 80 combined points in a 52-28 win at UMass their next time out. This is a step down in class for them here after facing Troy and Coastal Carolina in their last two games and having their offense held in check.
Three of Monroe's last four games have seen 81, 66 and 62 combined points to easily top this 56.5-point total. This is a big step down in class for this Monroe offense after facing a gauntlet of opposing defenses in their last five games. Look for them to bust out with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this Arkansas State defense.
Last year, Arkansas State beat Monroe 45-28 for 73 combined points in a game with a similar total of 58. Six of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 61 or more combined points. The books have once again set this total too low.
Terry Bowden is 11-2 OVER in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of the Warhawks. Monroe is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 home games following three of more consecutive losses. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|10-28-23||Pittsburgh +21 v. Notre Dame||7-58||Loss||-110||88 h 0 m||Show|
15* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +21
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a very satisfying 48-20 home win over the USC Trojans. But USC basically gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers. Notre Dame somehow scored 48 points despite just 251 total yards of offense. Multiple defensive touchdowns and short fields were the difference as their offense didn't need to do much.
After having a 13-to-0 TD/IN ratio through the first four games of the season, Sam Hartman has regressed for Notre Dame. He has a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his last four starts since taking a step up in class with matchups with Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC. Now they face another very good defense here in Pitt.
While Notre Dame is coming off a misleading blowout of an overrated USC team, Pittsburgh is coming off a misleading 17-21 loss at Wake Forest following their 38-21 upset of Louisville, giving these teams a common opponent. Notre Dame lost 33-20 at Louisville. Pitt outgained Wake Forest 414 to 323, or by 91 total yards. The Panthers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face rival Notre Dame this week.
The switch at quarterback has yielded great results for the Panthers through two games. Christian Veilleux has thrown for 502 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games since being named the starter against Louisville and Wake Forest. He has given this previously dead offense some new life.
Pitt allows just 5.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 5.7 yards per play. Pitt allows just 131 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season, so they have been great against the run. They will be able to slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack in this one, which will help them stay within the number in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.
|10-28-23||Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL||Top||26-29||Win||100||88 h 60 m||Show|
20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia +19
Virginia is a much better team than its 2-5 record would indicate. The Cavaliers have three losses by 3 points or less this season and a misleading loss to Maryland. They showed just how underrated they were last week by going on the road to North Carolina and upsetting the Tar Heels 31-27 as 24-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that win as the Cavaliers had 439 total yards and were actually -1 in turnovers.
With three winnable home games still on the horizon, the Cavaliers could still make a bowl game if they pull another road upset here. At the very least, there's value on the Cavaliers as 19-point road dogs to a fragile Miami Hurricanes team that they just seem to play tough every year.
Miami is in a tough spot here coming off back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson which followed up their 23-20 upset home loss to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites. They went on to lose 41-31 at North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs and were never really in that game. And last week's 28-20 (OT) win over Clemson was misleading as they managed just 362 total yards and were +2 in turnovers. They celebrated that game like they won the National Championship, and I think they fall flat here against Virginia like they did in that upset loss to Georgia Tech.
Each of the last five meetings between Virginia and Miami were decided by 8 points or less, or by a single score. Miami has only beaten Virginia by more than 19 points once in the last 13 meetings, and that was a 20-point win. That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 19-point spread when you look at the recent head-to-head history.
Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game. The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following a win. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Virginia Saturday.
|10-28-23||Duke v. Louisville -4||Top||0-23||Win||100||88 h 60 m||Show|
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -4
I love the spot for Louisville this week. They finally got a bye week to regroup and get healthy following their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh going into the bye. You could see that loss coming a mile away, and I was on Pittsburgh +7.5 in that game because of the terrible spot.
Louisville was coming off a huge 33-20 upset win over Notre Dame the previous week. They simply had a letdown and really beat themselves more than anything in a 38-21 loss at Pitt. It was a misleading loss as Louisville outgained Pitt 444 to 305, or by 139 total yards, but they were -3 in turnovers including an 86-yard INT return for a TD when they were going in to take the lead late in the 3rd quarter.
Louisville will get back to playing the kind of football they were playing in that Notre Dame game when they are 6-0. They still have everything in front of them as they try to win a ACC title. The Cardinals have dominant numbers this season outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.
The spot is much worse for Duke. The Blue Devils are coming off a 38-20 road loss at Florida State last week and were dominated in the box score. They were outgained 420 to 273, or by 147 yards by the Seminoles. QB Riley Leonard made his return from injury but clearly wasn't healed and re-injured his ankle in the loss while getting pulled from the game late. He is highly questionable for this game, and having him at anything less than 100% will give Duke almost zero chance to be competitive in this one.
Louisville is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in its last six games as home favorites. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday home games as well. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play. Bet Louisville Saturday.
|10-28-23||Memphis v. North Texas +7.5||Top||45-42||Win||100||87 h 29 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +7.5
The North Texas Mean Green are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well. They haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points. Each of their last three losses all came on the road by 7 points or less. It was last week's 35-28 loss at Tulane as 20.5-point dogs that impressed me the most.
North Texas went toe-to-toe with the defending AAC champ and current AAC favorite in Tulane on the road. They had 426 total yards while Tulane had 439 total yards, only getting outgained by 13 yards in what was a very close game throughout.
That gives these teams a common opponent. Memphis lost 31-21 at home to Tulane as a 5-point dog while getting outgained 403 to 366, or by 37 yards. And Memphis got to play Tulane at home while North Texas played them on the road.
I think Memphis is being overvalued off its 45-21 win at UAB last week against a backup QB for UAB. That was a misleading final as UAB actually outgained Memphis 381 to 358, or by 23 total yards. But UAB was -4 in turnovers which was the difference.
North Texas proved it could play with Memphis last year losing 44-34 on the road as 13-point dogs. North Texas outgained Memphis 473 to 334, or by 139 total yards in what was a misleading loss. North Texas was -2 in turnovers in that game. Now they get the Tigers at home and as 7.5-point dogs to boot, making the Mean Green a very live underdog here.
Memphis is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games following a double-digit road win. North Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games. Bet North Texas Saturday.
|10-27-23||Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +4.5||Top||38-16||Loss||-110||76 h 20 m||Show|
20* FAU/Charlotte ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charlotte +4.5
I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country. His players absolutely love him and will go to war for him. The 49ers are just 2-5 this season, but they have impressed me against some very good competition. They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.
Last week, I was on Charlotte +7.5 at East Carolina and they delivered the outright upset in a 10-7 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated. They outgained ECU 325 to 127, or by 198 total yards. They should have won by more, but they were -2 in turnovers and conditions were tough. Clearly, their defense is better than it gets credit for.
Now the 49ers play another struggling offense in the Florida Atlantic Owls. FAU is just 3-4 SU this season with the three wins coming against bottom feeders in FCS Monmouth, Tulsa and South Florida. Last week, FAU lost 36-10 at home to UTSA. The Owls have now been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games overall. It's tough to trust them to lay any kind of number on the road with that putrid of an offense. It won't get any easier this week against a Charlotte defense that is allowing just 22.7 points per game this season despite playing a tougher schedule than FAU, which allows 25.0 points per game.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Charlotte Friday.
|10-26-23||Bucs v. Bills OVER 43||Top||18-24||Loss||-110||22 h 6 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43
The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago.
The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.
Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense. The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field. Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin. Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here.
The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses. They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week. They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable.
What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in. The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away. The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%.
Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace. The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds. This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year.
Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers. Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.