Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Cardinals under 9 -120

1* Free Pick on Paddy Pimblett +130

1* Free Play on Paddy Pimblett +130

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Diamondbacks/Dodgers over 8½ -120

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Saturday 7-11-26

UNDER 8 1/2 Atlanta/St Louis

R&R Totals has a TOP WNBA Over-Under for Saturday! Now an impressive 35-20 (64%) over his last 55 basketball picks! Join us and make money like the $1,000 per game clients who are up $12,800 since March 16, 2026!

R&R Totals has a TOP MLB Over-Under for Saturday! Now an impressive 1259-1075 (54%) over his last 2550 MLB picks! Join us and make money like the $1,000 per game clients who are up $97,840 since October 09, 2013!

1* FREE INFO PLAY Cubs -112

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Astros/Rangers OVER 8.5

*Top 10 Overall Capper 4 of L10 Years!*

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Come bet with a proven winner on the bases today and get your hands on my Saturday All-Inclusive MLB 6-Pack for $49.99! This card features TWO 5 Unit BEST BETS in the Rockies/Giants & Braves/Cardinals games! You are GUARANTEED-to-PROFIT or I'll send you Sunday's MLB plays for FREE!

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Saturday 7-11-26

Houston @ Texas  (7:05 PM EST)
Play On:  Texas -115

The Houston Astros take on the Rangers in Texas on Saturday night.  Houston is 46-50 SU overall this year while Texas comes in with a 48-46 SU overall record on the season.  Texas is 24-8 last 3 years playing at home in July.  Texas is 10-4 last 14 games overall.  Houston is 1-4 last 5 games against AL West Division opponents.  Peter Lambert is 3-17 in his career against division opponents including 0-8 on the road.  Lambert is 1-13 when pitching on the road in the second half of the season.  We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocketman has hit 67% in the WNBA this year!  Rocky Atkinson has his WNBA PLAY OF THE DAY going Saturday. One of the BEST HANDICAPPERS in the world is on an impressive 64-43 60% WNBA run over his last 109 picks! Join the same handicapper that has made $1,000/game bettors $16,200 since May 19, 2022!

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1* Free Sharp Play on Diamondbacks vs Dodgers under 9 -105

This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our Saturday Free Play. Toronto needed something positive heading into the break after three straight losses where it scored just one run total and so far, that has happened as it has won three straight games with the offense putting up 24 runs with the pitching allowing just six runs. The Blue Jays have gotten it back to three games under .500 on the road with three of those given up by Shane Bieber last night in a must needed positive start for him. Trey Yesavage has put together four straight strong outings after a pair of bad starts to open June. The recent four starts have been good for a 2.45 ERA and he remains on the road where he has been excellent with a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in six starts. The Padres continue their slide as they are back to two games under .500 with one of the worst offenses in baseball. Walker Buehler was one of the positives this season but he has been lit up over his last two starts, allowing 16 runs over nine innings. Play (979) Toronto Blue Jays

Fargo is coming off a disgusting 0-4 Friday including 0-3 in baseball and while bad days happen, he vows to get it back and add to the great start to the MLB season. THREE Winners Saturday plus CFL Game of the Week!

Chicago Cubs starter Javier Assad has been one of the biggest surprises through the first month-plus of baseball this season, posting a stellar 6-1 record while giving his team a chance to win every outing. Cincinnati will try and take advantage behind starter Nick Lodolo, who sports a bloated 4.68 ERA and hasn't been able to consistently string together quality starts. Friday's series opener was rough for Chicago as they were shutout, but this lineup has been one of the NL's best all season long and should be poised to bounce back. Look for Chicago to make their chances count this one, receive a solid start from Assad and take the series with a win on the road.

Jim Feist's FREE Play: Chicago Cubs. 

Saturday's Free MLB Pick 

PLAY ON: Rangers -116

I have been grinding these cards for years now, and nothing lights me up quite like a rematch where the guy who got finished last time has spent the better part of a decade turning himself into a completely different animal, that is exactly what we have on the main card of UFC 329 tonight when Cory Sandhagen meets Mario Bautista again. Sandhagen still sits as a modest favorite, somewhere in the -135 to -150 range depending on where you look, which puts Bautista out there at a savory +110 to +135. I am taking the dog every single time at those numbers, and I want to walk you through the math, the history, and the angles that make this one of the cleaner underdog spots on a stacked International Fight Week card.

First, the rematch tax, historical UFC rematch data shows the original winner repeats roughly 62 to 67 percent of the time overall, that sounds bad for Bautista until you dig into the pricing. When the first-fight loser is getting plus money in the rematch, and especially when that first fight was a quick finish rather than a dominant decision, the original dog cashes at a higher rate than the implied probability. Sandhagen needed just three minutes and thirty-one seconds to snatch an armbar on a young Bautista back in January 2019, both men making their UFC debuts. That was seven years ago. Bautista has gone 10-1 since, the only loss a competitive decision to Umar Nurmagomedov. The math on that kind of gap is simple, Experience gained equals fights completed times skill differential plus camps refined. Bautista has stacked roughly a decade of high-level reps while Sandhagen’s recent body of work has a glaring pattern.

Sandhagen’s striking numbers remain elite for the division, he lands 4.86 significant strikes per minute at 45 percent accuracy while absorbing only 3.47, good for a positive differential of plus 1.39. His switch-stance creativity still makes him a nightmare for pure boxers. Yet his takedown defense sits at a soft 56 percent, and the last two times he faced genuine high-level pressure wrestlers, Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov, he dropped unanimous decisions. In those five-round wars he was out-wrestled badly, absorbing volume while spending long stretches on his back. Bautista’s own numbers tell a different story, he lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute at 48 percent accuracy, a higher volume and slightly cleaner accuracy than Sandhagen, while averaging 1.91 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 38 percent accuracy. That is a 66 percent higher takedown rate. His submission average of 0.8 per fifteen minutes dwarfs Sandhagen’s 0.2. Bautista is a black belt under John Crouch at MMA Lab, and seven of his seventeen professional wins have come by submission.

Here is the simple expected value equation I run on spots like this, assume a conservative true win probability for Bautista of 48 percent based on the stylistic collision and recent form. At plus 120 that implies an EV of 0.48 times 2.20 minus 0.52 times 1 equals plus 0.056, or roughly plus 5.6 percent edge. Even if you shave him down to 45 percent true probability you are still in positive territory at the current prices. The public loves Sandhagen’s highlight-reel kicks and the memory of that first-round armbar, so the line has not fully adjusted for the fact that Bautista has evolved into a high-pace grappler who chains wrestling into back takes and rear-naked chokes.

Recent form adds another layer, Bautista just submitted Vinicius Oliveira in the second round with a rear-naked choke after controlling the mat. Before that he out-pointed Patchy Mix and took a split decision from the legendary Jose Aldo. Sandhagen’s last three include a title-fight loss to Merab where he was taken down twenty times and a five-round decision loss to Umar. His one win in that stretch came against a fading Deiveson Figueiredo who suffered a knee injury. The pace differential is real. Bautista’s average fight time sits around ten minutes while Sandhagen’s is closer to fourteen minutes forty seconds. In three-round fights that favors the guy who can force early scrambles and drain the gas tank with constant level changes.

I care about this one because I have watched Bautista quietly climb the ranks without the same hype machine, he is the kind of fighter who shows up prepared, does the dirty work, and forces elite guys into ugly fights. Sandhagen is still dangerous, no question, and if he keeps this standing for fifteen minutes his volume and creativity could steal rounds. But the math on the wrestling mismatch, the rematch experience gap, and the plus-money pricing all point the same direction. Mario Bautista is not just a live underdog, he is the value play of the night for anyone who likes their edges clean and their math honest.

Quick thoughts on the rest of this stacked card, Max Holloway looks solid in the main event against a rusty Conor McGregor coming off a five-year layoff, the volume and durability edge is just too much to ignore even if Conor lands something early. Paddy Pimblett at plus money has real upset appeal against Benoit Saint Denis, his grappling could slow down the Frenchman in a fun scrap. King Green versus Terrance McKinney is pure chaos, lean McKinney early but Green late for live betting value. Robert Whittaker making his light heavyweight debut against Nikita Krylov is tricky, Whittaker’s experience gives him the nod but Krylov’s size makes him live at plus prices. The early prelims have some fireworks potential with guys like Zach Reese and Ryan Gandra, expect quick finishes there. Overall this card has that perfect mix of star power and underdog opportunities, lock in Bautista and enjoy the show, fight week in Vegas never disappoints.

My selection is on Kansas City over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

We just missed with the Royals last night as they rallied a couple of times but couldn't come up with any clutch hits late to secure an 'upset' win. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Saturday, however. They'll send left-hander Noah Cameron to the hill. He's coming off a bounce-back performance against the Phillies on Monday. It hasn't been a banner season for Cameron after he finished top-four in A.L Rookie of the Year voting last year. With that being said, I still consider him a quality left-handed arm and will note that the O's rank 25th in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Kyle Bradish gets the start for Baltimore. He was terrific last time out but needed to throw a whopping 106 pitches. I'll also point to the fact that the O's dropped his second straight start. Current Royals hitters haven't seen a lot of Bradish but what they have seen, they've liked, going 8-for-24 (.333) with a .887 OPS. Take Kansas City (8*).

Cubs vs Reds MLB Free Pick 

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot to back the Chicago Cubs after getting shut out in the series opener. Public perception often overadjusts to a zero-run performance, but sharp handicappers know that backing a disciplined lineup following a shutout loss yields excellent long-term value.

The Cincinnati Reds hand the ball to left-hander Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA). While Lodolo has individual flashes of pitching well lately, the team results tell a highly alarming story. The Reds have dropped five of his last six starts.

The Cubs turn to right-hander Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA), who isn't just a solid arm, he consistently benefits from a high-functioning relationship with his offense. The Cubs' dugout routinely fills up the box score when he takes the bump, leading Chicago to an impressive seven wins across his last eight starts.

The moneyline is tempting, but the real value is on the runline at plus-money. 

The Bet: Cubs -1½ (3%).