Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Nationals +153

Free Play on Mystics +5½ -115

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Yankees/Guardians UNDER 8

With no Judge or Stanton, the New York Yankees aren't nearly as potent offensively.  They have scored 4 runs or fewer in four of their last five games, and the were held to one run in seven innings before getting 5 runs in their final at-bat against the Red Sox yesterday for the lone exception.

The Guardians really profile as an UNDER team with a suspect lineup and a great staff and bullpen.  They are scoring 4.1 runs per game and allowing 4.0 runs per game.  Both teams have strong bullpens with the Yankees posting a 3.51 ERA and the Guardians a 3.74 ERA this season.

Will Warren is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 12 starts for the Yankees this season, including 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five road starts.  Warren held the Guardians to 2 earned runs and 4 base runners in 5 innings of a 3-2 loss in his lone career start against them.

Gavin Williams is 9-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 13 starts for the Guardians this season with 94 K's in 81 2/3 innings.  Williams has been dominant at home, going 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six home starts.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

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Ricky's 1* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games.

- The Over is 6-3 in Indiana's last 9 games when playing Washington.

- The Over is 3-0 in Washington's last 3 home games.

Verdict: We should see plenty of Points in this game.

1* Free Pick on Blue Jays +159

Don't give up on the Spurs yet. They very well could be up 2-0 in this NBA Finals rather than down 0-2.

The best player on the court is not Karl-Anthony Towns nor Jalen Brunson. It is Victor Wembanyama and he is more than capable of playing much better than he has shown so far in this championship series.

San Antonio also has a secret weapon. More on that later.

Much is being made of the Knicks' 13 straight playoff victories. That is the second-longest streak by any team in NBA playoff history. Note that 11 of those victories came against the Cavaliers, 76ers and Hawks. The Spurs have their own impressive streak - 13-2 SU and ATS in their next game following a loss since January.

The Spurs had a 14-point second-half lead in Game 1 against New York. Not nearly as well rested as the Knicks, the Spurs missed many shots they normally hit and ended up blowing the game.

San Antonio led New York with less than a minute left in Game 2. The Spurs ended up losing by one point when Wembanyama made an unforced error that led to a turnover and then compounded his poor decision with a foul. Then Wembanyama, who shot 51.2 percent from the floor during the regular season, missed a makeable jumper in the final seconds.

This is what Wembanyama said after the game: "I threw that one away. I messed up. We didn’t play great as a team. We needed to win that game. This game was ours. But at this point, it’s done. “Am I going to regret it? Yes, of course. Am I going to use that to fuel me and to fuel me and fuel us next game? Absolutely.”

I believe him. I regard Wembanyama as the most complete basketball player in the world, none better.

Now for San Antonio's secret weapon.

Well, actually, it's not such a secret that President Donald Trump is going to attend this Game 3.

The Knicks' have all the momentum, enthusiasm and joy going their way now. Trump, with all his baggage and controversial presence, is going to prove a huge distraction if not steal the spotlight.

Those attending the game at Madison Square Garden are being asked to arrive at least 2 hours before tip off because of TSA-screening procedures and security. The Secret Service also announced fans cannot bring bags into the arena.

Some are saying the Spurs are not yet ready to win an NBA championship, too young and inexperienced in pressure packed deep playoff games like this one. This calls for a reminder that the Knicks have not won an NBA championship in 53 years. They have not hosted an NBA Finals game in 27 years.

All the pressure is on the Knicks and Trump's divisive presence in the heart of the deeply blue state of New York could make things worse.

So I am on the Spurs. 

Monday Rob Releases his one and only 7* NBA Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR along with MLB and #1 RANKED WNBA. Soccer comp play below.

The Monday Comp play is on the Under 3.5 goals in the Northern Ireland vs France match at 2.45 eastern. France is expected to win here by between 2-3 goals as they are heavily favored and have much more quality and depth. This is a big litmus test here for a Northern Ireland team that has struggled on the road and will concentrate mostly on slowing down a high powered France offense.  France is the #1 ranked team heading into the Cup and comes off a loss to Ivory Coast 2-1. With this fixture the Final tuneup we will likely see France bag a few goals and look to shore up the defense and its very likely they hold a clean sheet here. Northern Ireland is a young Squad and while they played well in group stage this will be a very tough match for them. Look for this game to stay under today. GL Rob V-

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Monday’s FREE WINNER: Seattle Mariners.

Game 905.

3:35 PM PST/6:35 PM EST.

As of posting this release, the unofficial starter for the Baltimore Orioles will be Chris Bassitt. This is not yet confirmed (check status). But it looks to be like it will be him. Very honestly, even if he does not start, I still like the visiting team against any starter the home team sends to the bump. The Orioles are a big disappointment this season, sitting in fourth place in the American League East, at 31-35. Granted they are a little bit better at home than they are on the road. However, this team is struggling behind a very bad pitching staff. They rank 24th, with a team ERA of 4.58. Just over the last 10 outings, in which they split out with five wins and five losses, their pitching staff has yielded a whopping 45 runs scored. Meanwhile, the Mariners enter this matchup sitting atop the American League West at 34-32. With a combination of a surging lineup and the fifth-ranked pitching staff in baseball, this team is starting to find their legs. They are sending Emerson Hancock to the hill today. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.8 0 ERA on the campaign, and has yielded three runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts in 2026. Yes, over the last few years, Baltimore has had their way with Seattle. But let’s be honest, this is not the same Orioles team that we have seen in recent seasons. I feel the Mariners will come in here strong, with no matter what, a more reliable starter on the mound. Take Seattle. Thank you.

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Brewers/A's under 11 -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

Nats +134

Washington and San Fran meet and we’re on the Nationals. It was a tough travel day for the Giants, who had to play a late game in Chicago and now shift back home with a quick turnaround. The Giants send out Logan Webb, who has been up and down so far this season. He’s just 3-4 and owns a 4.25 ERA. He allowed 7 hits to this Washington team earlier this season as well and gave up 3 runs. Miles Mikolas counters and the veteran threw 4.0 scoreless against the Giants in his previous encounter. This is a nice price on Washington. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the NATIONALS ML. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Monday FREE MLB O/U Play

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ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +5 vs. Indiana Fever, 7pm ET - These two teams met earlier in Indiana and played a double OT thriller with the Mystics winning 104-102. The line on that game had the Fever favored by -9.5 points. That would suggest they are -2.5 points here. Both teams are coming off losses and look to rebound here. Sonia Citron returned for the Mystics after sitting out with a sore ankle and proceeded to score 18-points and dish out 6 assists in their loss to the Dream. Indiana led the Liberty for much of their previous game before the officials took matters into their own hands and turned the tide for NY who then outscored the Fever29-18 in the 4th quarter. The Liberty attempted 40 free throws to the Fevers 15. Washington is 1-2 SU at home this season but do have a positive scoring differential of +2.7PPG. The Fever are 1-3 SU on the road this season with a negative average margin of victory of minus -4.3PPG. Indiana/Clark continue to be overpriced so we will grab the points with the Mystic.

1* MLB - Reds/Padres FREE PICK on Padres -130

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Phillies/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Key: The Phillies have scored 26 runs in their last 4 games.  They are capable of covering this total on their own against Patrick Corbin and the Blue Jays.  Corbin has been one of the worst starters in the majors for 5-plus years.  He is 1-0 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 5 home starts this year.  He is 6-11 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 23 lifetime starts against the Phillies.  Cristopher Sanchez finally had his scoreless streak snapped in his last start.  I could see him having a letdown this game because of it.  He faced a hot Toronto lineup that has scored 3 runs or more in 9 consecutive games, and 5 runs or more in 6 of them.  The Blue Jays are 8-1 OVER in their last 9 games overall.  Take the OVER.

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1* Free Pick on Blue Jays +154

This is a price play, not a pitching play.

I'm not going to pretend Cristopher Sánchez at 7-2 with a 1.46 ERA isn't a problem.

He is.

He's the best pitcher on the mound in this series and probably in any series this week.

But I'm not laying -170 on a Phillies team I'd lay -130 on, and that gap is where the bet lives.

Patrick Corbin is the obvious soft spot for Toronto, and the underlying numbers say he should be worse than his 3.98 ERA.

His 5.27 xERA and .466 xSLG against tell you the contact has been loud.

Fine.

But Corbin has also turned in two of his last three starts allowing just 1 earned run, including 6 innings against Pittsburgh.

He doesn't need to win the matchup.

He needs to keep it within 2 or 3 runs into the 6th.

The market is treating Toronto like a bottom-feeder because they're 32-34 overall.

At Rogers Centre they're 19-14.

That's a real split and the +154 doesn't price it in.

Yes, the injury list is ugly with Kirk and Santander on the 60-day, and yes, Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in the last 8 meetings.

I'm aware.

The Monday 0-5 trend is noise.

What matters is the implied win probability at +154 sits around 39%, and a healthy home team with a real ballpark advantage clears that number even against a top-5 starter.

Give me the points and the home dog math.

I like the Blue Jays

1* FREE INFO PLAY Mystics +5½ -115

1* Best Bet on Guardians -117

No analysis provided.

1* Free Sharp Play on Orioles +120

Mikey Sports FREE WNBA play Monday 6-8-26

New York -12 1/2

Mikey is passing on Monday with premium picks!  Check back on Tuesday!

1* Free Play on Liberty/Sun over 161½ -110

Monday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Phillies/Blue Jays UNDER 7.5

Hey folks, as we gear up for this Monday night showdown between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees at Progressive Field, I'm feeling that classic pitchers' duel vibe all over again. These two clubs have been trading blows in recent series, but with Gavin Williams (9-3, 3.20 ERA) toeing the rubber for the home side against Will Warren (7-1, 3.22 ERA), the smart money is leaning toward the Guardians' moneyline around that -115 to -130 neighborhood or the Under on 7.5-8 total. It's not flashy, but the numbers and trends back it up in a way that makes the math sing.

Let's break it down with some real-deal stats that separate the casual bettors from the ones who actually crunch the data. Williams has been a revelation this year, posting a sparkling 1.08 WHIP over 81.2 innings while striking out 94 and walking just 25. That's a K/BB ratio north of 3.76, which mathematically crushes most matchups, think about it as limiting free passes while generating swings-and-misses at a rate that turns lineups into strikeout machines. Warren's no slouch either at 1.20 WHIP with 70 Ks in 64.1 frames, but his road splits tell a slightly different story, and Progressive Field has a way of taming even the hottest bats.

Head-to-head history adds serious weight here. The total has dipped under in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these squads, and that's not just noise, it's a pattern rooted in strong starting pitching and solid defenses. Factor in the Yankees' recent under tendencies (hitting the under in a hefty chunk of their June and Monday games) and the Guardians' home-field edge, where their infield defense ranks among the league's best, and you're looking at a setup where runs could be at a premium.

A quick nod to some advanced sabermetrics that sharpen this picture without overcomplicating things: We're talking FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which strips away defense and luck with a formula roughly FIP = ((13×HR) + (3×(BB + HBP)) – (2×K)) / IP + ~3.2 constant. Both starters sit in that strong 3.20-ish ERA zone with solid underlying FIP numbers, suggesting their dominance isn't just smoke and mirrors. Layer in BABIP ((Hits – HR) / (AB – HR – K + SF)), which hovers league-wide around .290-.300, deviations here often signal regression that favors unders. Williams' low WHIP and high K-rate point to suppressed offense, while the Guardians' elite defensive metrics (think Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved) boost that pitching value even more. It's the kind of math that makes you chuckle at how often these "bomber vs. grinder" narratives get humbled when the ball stays in the yard.

On the Statcast side, exit velocity (the speed of the ball off the bat in mph) is pure gold for spotting true hard contact. Hard-hit balls at 95 mph or higher produce batting averages north of .500 and massive slugging, while barrels (that sweet spot of high EV + ideal launch angle) are what power Yankees lineups. Both Williams and Warren have done an excellent job limiting opponent exit velocities this season, keeping those loud 100+ mph rockets to a minimum, exactly why the data leans toward fewer runs in this spot.

For the math geniuses in the crowd (and yeah, I love geeking out on this stuff), consider the expected run environment. If we approximate a combined starter ERA around 3.21 and plug in typical MLB regression factors, like BABIP stabilization and bullpen leverage, the implied total hovers closer to 7 or below in a vacuum. Guardians' home games this season have trended toward these tighter affairs, especially against AL East visitors who sometimes struggle adjusting to the lake-effect elements. The Yankees boast a strong overall record (38-26) and road prowess, but Cleveland's recent series success against them (taking 2 of 3 earlier) shows they match up well when the arms are this sharp.

Don't get me wrong, the Yankees can absolutely mash, sitting high in team OPS and slugging categories. But betting against two aces locked in like this feels like fighting the percentages. It's the kind of spot where you chuckle at the "bombers vs. grinders" narrative because, more often than not, the ball stays in the yard and the bullpens hold serve. Guardians at home with Williams? That's a spot I've come to respect the hard way through these trends.

My lean: Guardians ML for that home-cooking value, or the Under for the safer, data-backed play. Shop around for the best number, as always. These nights are why we love baseball: two good pitchers, a packed park, and trends that reward the patient observer. Let's see if Cleveland can keep the scoreboard quiet and send the Yanks packing.

My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

A lot of bettors are anticipating a reversal of course as far as the total goes in this series with the scene shifting to New York for Game 3. As I've said from the start of this series, the Knicks prefer to run a slow, methodical offense and I don't think that's going to change now that they're up 2-0 in the series heading home. The pace hasn't been there to indicate we're likely to see a sudden uptick in scoring in Game 3. Off consecutive 'under' results, it's worth noting that the Spurs have delivered three different 'under' streaks lasting three games going back to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Knicks have posted four different 'under' streaks lasting at least three games going back to February 21st. We will see an 'over' result at some point in this series but I'm not convinced it will be in Game 3. Take the under (8*). 

Phillies vs Blue Jays MLB Free Pick 

The Angle(s): The Philadelphia Phillies are on a 5–1 run and have covered the run line in each of their last three wins. The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off back-to-back home wins over Baltimore, but they closed both games as favorites and are only 2–4 as home underdogs. Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez (7–2, 1.46 ERA) has been electric, and Sánchez is 3–0 with a 2.00 ERA in four career starts against Toronto. I like the Phillies to win big over a Blue Jays team handing the ball to Patrick Corbin (2–2, 3.98 ERA), who is 6–11 with a 4.83 ERA in 23 starts against the Phillies.

The Bet: PHILLIES -1½ (3%). 

100% PERFECT 4-0 RUN with 5% MONEYLINE MAX BETS and SIZZLING 5-1 (83%) RUN with top-rated (4-5%) MLB moneylines! Mike has a 5% MLB MONEYLINE MAX locked in for Monday. 

Free Pick on Guardians -117

FREE PLAY on Yankees +125