Free Football Picks

1* Free Wiseguy Play on A's -120

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Free Pick on Angels +115

The market is pricing this like a coin flip with the Angels as small dogs, but the pitching matchup is closer than the surface ERAs suggest.

A's starter Aaron Civale carries a shiny 2.70 ERA into this one, but his xERA sits at 4.39.

That's a nearly two-run gap that says regression is overdue.

His last five starts back it up: 5 IP, 6 H against the Giants, 5 IP, 6 H against the Orioles, 6 IP, 7 H against Cleveland.

He's not missing bats either, with just 2 strikeouts in his most recent outing.

Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz is the obvious opposition point.

He's been hit hard, 12 earned runs over his last 10 innings, and his 5.53 xERA confirms the underlying numbers are ugly.

I'm not pretending that away.

But the A's lineup he's facing is missing Max Muncy and Jacob Wilson, two core infield bats, plus Denzel Clarke in center.

That's three regulars gone, and it takes a real bite out of the offense that just put up 14 on this team yesterday.

The head-to-head trend matters here.

The A's are 5-11 SU in their last 16 against the Angels.

This is a divisional spot where the Angels have historically played them well regardless of records.

Getting plus money on the home team with a regression candidate on the mound and a banged-up opposing lineup is the spot.

The 1-7 recent skid has the price inflated.

I like the Angels

1* FREE INFO PLAY Pirates vs Cardinals over 7½ -118

The NHL Comp play is on Carolina at 8 eastern. The Canes are a bit pricey here but they do apply to two nice systems. First we are looking at Round 3 or later home favorites with 8 or more days rest as these teams are perfect since 2007 and then we looked at Playoff home favorites that are the 1 seed and have home favored loss revenge in round 2 or later, Also perfect since 2004. Montreal is off a grueling 7 game series with Buffalo and cashed nice for us on the road in game 7. However the Canes have a big rest advantage and triple revenge from this season. Look for Carolina to get game one. GL Rob V-

ASAwins WNBA play on UNDER 168 Connecticut Sun at Seattle Storm, 10 pm ET - Early on the Sun have committed to playing up-tempo this season with the 3rd fastest pace in the WNBA through 5 games at 100.08. The Storm are around league average in pace at 97.95. Neither team is good offensively ranking 14th and 15th in offensive Net rating. Connecticut has already give up 98 or more points in three games this season but those three games came against the Aces and Liberty, the two best teams in the league. These same two teams met on May 10th and produced 171 total points to go OVER the number set by the oddsmakers of 163.5. That means we are getting 4 additional points of value with an UNDER bet here and we are banking on the Storm having a regression in their shooting in this game as they hit an uncharacteristic 44% overall and 45% from deep in the first meeting. Seattle is 11th in overall FG% this season at 41.5% and 6th in 3PT% at 35.2%. Connecticut is 14th in team FG% at 41.1%, 13th in 3PT% at 30.1%. Easy UNDER call here.