Free Football Picks

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Panthers/Eagles OVER 39

This total has been bet down too much with the news that Jalen Hurts is out for the Eagles.  It has been bet down from an opener of 43 below the keys of 41 and 40.  I think there's value here to go contrarian and back the OVER.

The Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season averaging 30.3 points per game, 405.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They are also playing at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NFL snapping the ball every 26.6 seconds.  Their uptick in tempo has been a big reason Bryce Young is thriving so much in Year 4.

But the Panthers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL as well.  They allow 27.3 points per game, 387.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They rank 26th, 30th and 26th respectively in those three categories, which is very poor considering that includes their 34-3 win over Cooper Rush and the Falcons and their 21-18 loss to the Browns, two of the worst offenses in the league when they played them.

Even the Eagles can move the ball and get some points against this Carolina defense with Tanner McKee at QB.  Everyone loved him when he lit it up last year in the preseason, and he has shown he is capable.  I don't think it's that big of a downgrade from Hurts, especially in the passing game.  The Eagles have had one of the worst offenses in the NFL with Hurts at QB the last two seasons.

While Hurts is out, there is help on the way offensively for the Eagles in the form of WR DeVonta Smith, who missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.  McKee will have his full compliment of weapons at WR, and I wouldn't be surprised to see rookie Makai Lemon have the best game of his young career as McKee is great in the short-to-intermediate passing game.

This Philadelphia defense has been just as disappointing as its offense.  The Eagles allow 22.4 points per game, 356.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play this season.  They allowed 22 points to the Commanders and a season-high 20 to the Titans the first two weeks.  The last three weeks were even more concerning as they gave up 27 points and 375 yards to the Bears, 415 yards to the Rams and 408 yards to the Jaguars.

There are reinforcements on the way for the Panthers offensively, too.  WR Jalen Coker (18 receptions, 222 yards, 2 TD) was knocked out of the Cleveland game in Week 3 early and missed the next game against the Lions.  He is back this week, and there's a chance they get back two starters on the offensive line in LG Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton.  Backup RB Trevor Etienne was activated from IR alongside Moton and is upgraded to questionable.

The forecast looks perfect for a higher-scoring game in Philadelphia than the books anticipate.  Temps will be in the 50's with single-digit winds and no precipitation.  I expect the Panthers to easily get into the mid-to-upper 20's, and for McKee to provide a spark to this Eagles offense as they get into the 20's as well.  This total of 39 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints PK

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Sunday Free Play. This is a prime letdown spot for Buffalo as it is coming off a huge overtime win over the Rams on Monday so the Bills also have the rest disadvantage. This is the second straight game out west and they stayed out there as opposed coming back home and that is not necessarily an advantage, especially with the surroundings. We all know Buffalo is the better team and it has outgained every opponent in yppl and that is due to the offense that is outperforming its defense, the latter being one of the worst in the league. The Bills are No. 30 in both EPA/Play and Success Rate and they face an offense led by Kirk Cousins that has had a lot of success this season, sitting No. 5 in the league in Dropback Success Rate. The Raiders are in the opposite spot as they following up a tough loss in Kansas City with a blowout loss at New England last week. Road teams coming off OT, on short rest, are just 33% SU and 40% ATS since 2000. Here we play against road teams after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 2022. Play (280) Las Vegas Raiders

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1* Free Pick on Chargers/Chiefs: under 41½

This total is built on two offenses with real problems, and the Chargers' issues are the bigger ones.

Los Angeles has lost 5 straight to open the season and is scoring just 16.8 points a game.

Justin Herbert threw for only 121 yards against Denver last week and has turned it over 9 times already, 7 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles.

The protection isn't getting fixed Sunday.

Left tackle Joe Alt is out, guard Kayode Awosika is out, and Tre' Harris is done for the week at receiver.

Herbert won't have time to look downfield against Chris Jones and this Kansas City front.

The Chiefs' side of the total isn't clean either.

Rashee Rice is out with a hamstring and Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve after ankle surgery.

That leaves Xavier Worthy and a group of rookies at receiver.

Travis Kelce has been held to 2 catches in back-to-back games.

So Kansas City will lean on the ground game, and they should.

Kenneth Walker just went for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries against the Raiders and has 537 rushing yards through 4 games.

A run-first Chiefs offense bleeds clock, and that keeps possessions down for both sides.

Fewer possessions, a broken Chargers passing game, and a thin Kansas City receiver room.

That's the formula for a low-scoring divisional game.

I like the Under

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Ravens/Browns OVER 39.5

The Key: Both the Browns and Ravens got good news going into this game offensively.  The Ravens will have all of their top WR's available in Flowers, Lane and Bateman.  The Browns get rookie KC Concepcion back from a concussion and have all of their top playmakers available for Deshaun Watson.  Tyler Huntley led the Ravens to a 30-23 (OT) win at Atlanta last week and is a serviceable backup, especially with all these playmakers at his disposal.  The Browns have cluster injuries on defense and the Ravens should score easily into the 20's.  The Ravens yield 23.8 points per game this season and the Browns should have some offensive success as well as they have been much sharper on that side of the ball at home.  They are averaging 24.0 points per game in their 2 home games this year.  The weather will be good for a Cleveland home game with temps around 60 and no precipitation and very little wind.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Hapoel Beer Sheva -290

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Baltimore Ravens -3

The Baltimore Ravens are in good hands with Tyler Huntley as their backup QB.  He led them to a 30-23 road win over the Falcons last week, a Falcons team that had blown out the Packers and Saints by a combined score of 80-38 the previous two weeks.  This line would be at least Baltimore -7 if Lamar Jackson were healthy and playing.  We'll take advantage of this discount getting Baltimore -3.  The Ravens are healthier than the Browns everywhere else.  They have Zay Flowers healthy, and now star rookie WR Ja'Kobi Lane will return this week after being out since Week 1.  This Baltimore offense is still in good hands.  The Ravens have one of the top defenses in the NFL, and now they get back DE Trey Hendrickson this week and are basically fully healthy on D with all 11 starters expected to play this week.  Jesse Minter is a great defensive mind and will get the most out of this unit.  The Browns are 3-2 but could easily be 0-5.  All three of their wins came by 4 points or fewer and either needed a last-second score or a last-second stop.  Last week they lost 17-12 to the Jets and were held to 198 yards.  This is one of the worst offenses in the league with Deshawn Watson at QB.  Now injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns with RG Teven Jenkins out on offense, and DT Mike Hall out on defense.  They are really thin on the defensive line with DE Derek Barnett and DT Mason Graham questionable.  They could also be without Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger at LB as he is questionable after getting hurt last week.  At the very least, all these guys won't be anywhere near 100% and will be going up against a physical Baltimore team on both sides of the ball.  Getting the Ravens -3 is cheap.  Give me the Ravens.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Eagles +3 +100

Sunday card has our TOP Red Zone Play in late Afternoon and the 2X PERFECT AFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR Going early. There is also a TOP play in Sunday night Football and A.L.C.S Game 5. Comp play below

The Sunday Comp play in the NFL is on the Las Vegas Raiders plus the points. The Raiders look to bounce back from last weeks blowout loss and they catch the Bills off a massive upset win over the Rams on Monday night football. Rob notes that road favorites off a road dog win that has more than 220 yards rushing are 1-5 straight up and 0-6 to the spread on Sundays since 1993. In fact week 6 home dogs that opened 3-0 and are off back to back losses are perfect long term vs a team off a win. Look for Vegas to hang around for a cover here. GL Rob V-

New York should be able to come away with the straight up win as well as cover the number this Sunday vs the New Orleans saints. The Giants are 3-1-1 on the season and have covered 4 of their last 5 games. They are 3-0 ats at home which is always a good thing to see. QB Jameis Winston has been decent and should allow the Giants offense to move the football. They also have Malik Nabers that can give them a big play anytime. The Saints are 1-4 and have lost 3 in a row. Their defense has been terrible especially against the run. I think the Giants will be able to pressure Saints QB Tyler Shough and get the win at home.

Jim’s Free Play: 276. Giants pk

Houston Texans +2.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (London, Wembley, 9:30 AM ET)

The number is Jaguars -2.5, total 42.5. Jacksonville is 4-1 and just beat Philadelphia 19-17 in London. Houston is 1-4 and coming off a 26-3 win over Tennessee. The spread opened around 3 and has been bet down to 2.5. A short favorite on a neutral site against a division rival is not a number that needs to be laid. The points are the side.

These two have met 48 times. Houston leads the all-time series 32-16 straight up. Against the spread the picture is tighter but still leans Houston’s way: the Texans are 27-20-1 ATS in the series while Jacksonville is 20-27-1. In the last 10 meetings the Jaguars are 5-5 ATS. Underdogs in this series have been the better side historically, covering at a 29-18-1 clip. Short numbers between these clubs have not been free money for the favorite.

Jacksonville has been the better ATS team this season, but Houston’s defense has been the cleaner side of the ball in the losses. Both teams score in the low-to-mid 20s. A 42.5 in a London morning kickoff does not need to be a shootout. The market has already moved the side toward the visitor. That is the tell.

Bet the short underdog of 3 or fewer points in a neutral-site divisional game.
Underdogs of 3 or fewer points in neutral-site divisional games (since the early 1980s): 27-15 ATS (64.3%). At -110, 27 wins and 15 losses is +10.8 unit$, ROI=25.7%. Houston is getting 2.5. Both teams are AFC South. London is the filter. That is the window.

Bet the underdog of a field goal or less when the favorite is coming off a one-score win.
Underdogs of 3.5 or fewer points when the favorite’s previous game was decided by one score (last 35 years): 41-28 ATS (59.4%). At -110, that is +11.7 unit$, ROI=17.0%. Jacksonville’s last game was 19-17. The short week and the travel are the same for both sides. The points are the argument.

Bet the underdog in this series when the number is 3 or fewer.
Houston as a short underdog of 3 or fewer points against Jacksonville (last 10 seasons): 6-3 ATS (66.7%). At -110, that is +2.7 unit$, ROI=30.0%. The last decade has not been a free ride for Jacksonville laying a short number. The points have been the better side more often than the chalk.

Shop 2.5 or better. If it drops to 2, the edge shrinks. Confirm the starters. A London number and a domestic number are not the same bet if the travel hits one side harder. The house does not care that one club is 4-1.

My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Houston at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel the Jaguars feel like they took a loss in last week's ugly and improbable 19-17 win over the Eagles in London. Jacksonville simply couldn't get anything going offensively in that game as the Eagles sold out on defense to try to hide an injury-riddled offense in that ugly affair. I expect a return to 'normal' from the Jags this week as they stay in London to take on a familiar opponent in the division rival Texans. Houston is not off to the start it hoped for but did deliver a blowout win over the hapless Titans last Sunday. Even in that game it managed only 5.4 yards per play. While the Texans defense is certainly better than it showed in the early going this season, I expect it to have its hands full with a multi-pronged Jags offense on Sunday. Take Jacksonville (8*).

Cardinals vs L.A. Rams NFL FREE PICK

The Angle(s): The Los Angeles Rams entered the season as Super Bowl favorites, and their 2-3 start says more about bad luck than bad football. Their kicking game has made just five of nine field goal attempts, and Monday's overtime loss to Buffalo ended with a blocked game-winner. Matthew Stafford still threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns in that game, with Puka Nacua hauling in 17 catches. Now the Rams return home angry against a division rival in total freefall, and Sean McVay has been one of the league's most profitable coaches in divisional games (35-23-1 ATS).

The Arizona Cardinals have lost four straight and allowed 36, 36 and 45 points over their last three games. Jacoby Brissett can pile up some yards, but Los Angeles allows the second-fewest passing yards per game, so Arizona won’t be able to throw its way back once the Rams build a lead. The Rams are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, the Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, and I expect Los Angeles to win this one comfortably.

The Bet: Rams ATS (3%). 

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