Free Football Picks

1* Free Play on Chiefs PK -110

[1%] Free Play on Wild -102

Free Total Annihilator On Patriots vs Dolphins under 42½ -110

1* Free Pick on Bears/Seahawks: under 46½

Seattle's elite home defense sets up a heavy low-scoring environment on Monday night when the Seahawks host the Bears at Lumen Field. Seattle enters Week 8 featuring a top-two unit in overall defensive efficiency, excelling at shutting down explosive plays and forcing opponents into long third downs.

Chicago brings a 5-2 record into Seattle built on a formula of tough defensive play and controlled ground work. Traveling into one of the league's toughest road venues forces the Bears into a conservative game plan focused on ball security and keeping their own defense fresh.

That style fits right into how Seattle wants to play football. The Seahawks rely on winning trench battles and managing time of possession, which keeps overall snap counts lower than average.

Prime-time games between two physical teams with playoff aspirations naturally turn into field-position grinds. Neither coaching staff has an incentive to turn this contest into a high-risk shootout.

When game flow dictates slow clock execution and heavy defensive line dominance, this number offers real value on the total.

Take the Under 46.5 (-110) in the Bears at Seahawks game.

Riding a 3-game winning streak, I've locked in three high-value NFL premium picks for today's slate. If you're looking to build your bankroll with my top-rated selections, head over to my handicapper page to check out today's full card.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Chargers +6.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are a winless team coming off a bye which has been a very profitable subset over the years.  We saw the Dolphins beat the Jets outright in this spot last week.  Winless teams off a bye are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 tries.  And there's reason to believe this will be the best version of the Chargers we have seen all season.  They are so much healthier coming out of this bye getting back key guys like LT Joe Alt, WR McConkey and WR Harris.  That should help Justin Herbert have one of his best games.  They have a great defense giving up 330 yards per game against a tough schedule.  The Rams are the team with the injuries piling up now.  They are without WR Adams, LB Garrett, DE Turnver and NT Ford.  CB McDuffie is questionable as well.  They actually lost their last two home games outright to the Bills as 3.5-point favorites and to the Cardinals as 12.5-point favorites.  There will be no home-field advantage in this game with these teams sharing a stadium.  Teams with a rest advantage are 23-8 SU & 22-8-1 ATS this season.  Give me the Chargers.

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Sunday’s free winner: Kansas City Chiefs.

Folks, last week on the road we saw Kansas City’s offense score a dismal three-points. And as far back as I can remember, that is their lowest scoring output. Especially with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. This is a big game here, a game in which they must win. If they get a victory, they further separate themselves in the AFC West from the team just over their shoulder, the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Chiefs have a couple of easy games coming up in the Jets, Falcons, and Cardinals all in consecutive weeks before their schedule toughens. This is a must-win situation for the team, especially following their first loss of the 2026 regular season. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have prevailed in each of their last three games both SU and ATS. They are playing some very good football. They have an upcoming road game at the Panthers next week before and off week. Then they’ve got a couple of opponents after that they can take down; I feel with ease. But this is a big game for them. This is a game that will not just give the victor a psychological edge in the division, but could have serious playoff implications, as well. The Chiefs can run the ball. Trust me when I tell you they are going to give the Broncos 28th-ranked run defense, a serious dose of Kenneth Walker on the ground. That will open up the passing game and allow Patrick Mahomes to work his magic and certainly make a point to put more than three-points on the board this week. I feel this team and their very underrated second-ranked defense will make a point here. Take the Kansas City Chiefs. Thank you.

The Patriots enter Sunday’s matchup at Hard Rock Stadium at 4-3, averaging 22.9 points per game while allowing 20.4. Miami stands at 1-5, scoring 16.3 while allowing 26.2. Both sides have already shown stretches of competence, and a 7-point road number against a bottom-tier offense is not a tax when the favorite holds the clearer path through efficiency and the opponent has already given up volume. The market has not priced a blowout. The short number is the work.

New England generates looks through Drake Maye’s primary creation and secondary options that have already converted at an efficient rate. They control the ball on the ground in spots and force the defense into coverage when the run game is established. Miami’s early metrics place them near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball. Their run game (Ollie Gordon) has produced relative volume, but the overall efficiency has not kept pace. The challenge for the Dolphins is containing a primary creator who can score at multiple levels while also generating open looks for the secondary options. Miami’s defensive rating has already allowed points in bunches, and the sample against sustained creation remains limited.

Player-to-player, the gap favors New England. Maye is averaging 254.9 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns and an efficiency edge (96.4 rating, 8.3 yards per attempt). He has already produced multiple high-volume outings, including 374 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas. Malik Willis has been inconsistent (176.2 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, 77.1 rating) and has taken volume in sacks. Rhamondre Stevenson provides New England with a consistent ground option that forces the defense to account for both the run and the play-action. Gordon gives Miami a relative strength on the ground, but the secondary options have not yet converted at a rate that matches the Patriots’ efficiency. When the primary creator draws attention, New England’s secondary targets have already shown they can finish. Miami has not yet limited a balanced attack at this level for a full game.

Road favorites of 7 points or fewer facing an opponent ranked 25th or worse in points scored have covered at a 28-16 rate (63.6%) since the early 2010s. At even money, 28 wins and 16 losses equates to +12.0 units and a 27.3% ROI. The average margin in those situations has been +8.1 points. Efficiency against a soft front has been the decisive factor.

Teams averaging 20 or more points per game with a defensive rating inside the top 15 have covered as road favorites of 7 or fewer at a 25-15 rate (62.5%) when facing an opponent outside the top 20 in points scored. At even money, that record is +10.0 units and a 25.0% ROI. The short number has been the cleaner side when the favorite holds the usage edge and the opponent’s early metrics have not yet been tested against sustained secondary creation.

The 7-point line does not require the Patriots to dominate. It requires them to avoid a late collapse in a game the market has framed as competitive. A move to 7.5 or higher significantly reduces the value. Shop the lower number if it is available. Starter confirmation is advised before kickoff, particularly with any late injury developments on either side. Any significant limitation on the primary creator or a major rotation shift can alter the cover probability. The short road number remains the position.

NFL Prop Report – Sunday, November 1, 2026 (Week 8)

High-volume early window and a couple of sharp divisional spots set up a strong prop slate. Focus is on usage trends, dual-threat production, and matchup edges rather than pure projections. Lines move—shop the number.

BAL @ BUF (high total ~54–54.5)
Josh Allen is the clearest dual-threat edge. He has 1,504 pass yards (250.7 avg), 9 pass TDs, 240 rush yards, and 8 rush TDs in 6 games. Buffalo ranks near the top of the league in scoring and rushing. Allen’s rush-yard lines typically sit in the mid-to-high 30s; the Over on rush yards (or Anytime TD) has held up because he is the primary red-zone option. Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore, which should keep the game open and volume high on both sides. Bills have allowed significant passing yardage this season.

James Cook is the complementary ground piece: 627 rush yards (104.5 avg) and 6 rush TDs in 6 games, with a recent 75–154 yard range. Over 80–85.5 rush yards is the standard look in a positive game script.

MIN (6-0) @ DET
Jared Goff is averaging 298 pass yards and ~25 completions per game with 14 TDs and 0 interceptions through 6 starts. He has cleared 22.5 completions in multiple recent outings and carries high volume at home. Over 22.5 completions is the cleanest volume play against a strong but not volume-suppressing Vikings defense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: 46 receptions, 525 yards (87.5 avg), 5 TDs on heavy target share (68 targets). He has cleared 70+ yards in half his games and sits on a double-digit target floor. Over receiving yards or receptions (around 7.5) fits the Lions’ pass-heavy approach.

Justin Jefferson has been quieter: 302 yards (60.4 avg) across 5 games, under 60 in three of them, and no 100-yard game yet. Under ~75–76.5 receiving yards has been the lean given Minnesota’s overall pass volume (near the bottom of the league) and Detroit’s recent containment of featured receivers.

KC @ DEN
Patrick Mahomes is averaging 245.7 pass yards through 6 games (1,474 total, 9 TDs). Lines have hovered in the 220–224 range. Over 220.5–223.5 passing yards (or the companion completions number) is the volume look in a divisional spot, even with some recent lower-output games. Kenneth Walker III remains the primary rush option for Kansas City.

LAC @ LAR and NE @ MIA offer secondary volume spots (Stafford, Maye) but thinner edges than the early window.

PHI @ WAS (SNF) is the lower-priority game for props given the records and projected total.

Shop the number across books. Injury notes: Lamar Jackson is returning (monitor status); most other key players listed are expected to go. Lines and availability can shift pre-kick.

Ricky's 1* play on KC.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Chiefs are 5-1 in their last 6 games.

- The Chiefs are 6-4 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

- The Chiefs are 3-1 in their last 4 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

FREE PLAY on Broncos +1