Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Stars -125

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tennessee Titans +11.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tennessee Titans after a 0-3 start.  After opening with a 13-point loss to the Jets, the Titans had their chances to win in the final seconds in each of their last two games.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to the Eagles and by 5 as 2.5-point dogs to the Giants.

While the Titans are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, the Ravens are dealing with a ton of injuries that do not warrant them being this big of a favorite.  They lost their top two centers in Pocic and Gwynn to injury last week and are down to a rookie 3rd-stringer.  LB Trey Hendrickson is out, while WR Zay Flowers and OT Ronnie Stanley are questionable.

The Ravens are vulnerable up the middle offensively now.  That makes this a particularly bad matchup for them going up against the biggest strength of the Titans, which is the interior of their defensive line led by Jeffery Simmons.  Robert Saleh will take advantage of this weakness for the Ravens and send plenty of pressure up the middle.

This is also a letdown spot for the Ravens.  They have the long flight back from Brazil after escaping with a last-second win over the Cowboys last week.  We see them come up flat as big favorites at home multiple times every season.  They already did it once losing outright to the Saints as 8.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They may find a way to win this game, but I fully expect it to be closer than this line suggests.

The Titans have a very good offensive line and a solid running game when their backs in Pollard and Spears are healthy.  It's supposed to rain throughout the game, so running the football and stopping the run will be very important.  I think Tennessee matches up well in both departments with the Ravens.  The rain will suppress scoring, which will help keep the Titans in this game.

The Titans average 4.2 yards per rush and allow 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Baltimore rushes for 5.2 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 per carry.  But the Ravens have played a very easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Colts, Cowboys and Saints.  This Tennessee defense will bet the best unit Baltimore has faced this season.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Titans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Titans fit that bill.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

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*Free Play on West Virginia* The Iowa State Cyclones have been better than expected, but I think the market has gone a little too crazy backing Iowa State here. They have gone from an underdog all the way up to 3.5 point favorites. They played Iowa closer than expected. The CyHawk game is always tight and low scoring. 

Iowa State was dominated at home by Utah last week. The stats in that one were even more lopsided than the final score. 

Hawkins is a dynamic quarterback who can beat you two ways. West Virginia is a run first team, but they are also first in passing play explosiveness. I think this is a good chance for West Virginia to bounce back from their disappointing loss at home last weekend. 

I'll grab the points and the underdog.

Take West Virginia.

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1*

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 10/2:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports remains on a 30 of 45 (67%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays despite a rough 0-3 Thursday mark where Frank got it wrong with the Phillies in MLB and the Pittsburgh-Cleveland Under and then lost a coin flip result backing the Steelers! Frank is still on an 11 of 17 (65%) Game of the Month/Year run in all-Sports and, after some afternoon due diligence, he BOUNCES BACK by UNLEASHING his 25* WNBA 1st Round Playoff Game of the Year for the Dallas-Golden State ATS winner on ESPN2 at 9:00 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT! 

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Dolphins +10.5 

1* NFL - Cowboys/Texans FREE PICK on Texans -3

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -7

The Chargers are 0-3 and averaging just 14.7 points a game.

Now they fly to Seattle to face the defending champion Seahawks, who are angry after losing a close one in Washington.

Start with the quarterbacks.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is completing 59.1 percent of his passes with a 3:4 TD:INT ratio through three games.

His supporting cast is thin.

Tight ends Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are both out, and right tackle Trey Pipkins III is on IR.

That matters against a Seattle defense that has already given up the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Los Angeles has not been close to competitive.

They lost 26-14 to the Cardinals, 26-14 to the Raiders, then fell in Buffalo despite forcing 5 turnovers.

When your defense hands you 5 takeaways and you still lose, the offense is broken.

Seattle is a different story.

The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 a game and allowing 16.7.

Their only loss came on a pick-six in the final minutes at Washington.

Before that they went into Arizona and won 31-7.

Sam Darnold is back under center and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the field in this one.

He takes a 27-405-6 line on 36 targets into Week 4 with three straight games over 120 receiving yards.

The Chargers have no answer for him.

Good team at home off a loss against a bad team that cannot score.

Seven points is not enough.

I like the Seahawks

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Arizona State -3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Arizona State as 3.5-point home favorites over Baylor Saturday.  This will be a 10:30 EST kick and an electric atmosphere for a night game in Tempe.  The Sun Devils will be recharged and ready to go after a bye week following two grueling games against Texas A&M on the road and Kansas in London.  They split those games but deserved better against Texas A&M.  They held the Aggies to 255 yards and outgained them by 114 yards in a fluky final.  Baylor's 17-16 loss to Auburn in the opener doesn't look as good now as Auburn has struggled this season.  The 23-13 win over Colorado last week was misleading too as they were outgained by 26 yards by the Buffaloes, who were playing with a backup QB.  This will be Baylor's first true road game and their toughest game to date in my opinion.  Take Arizona State.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Texas State -8½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Virginia -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles are just not good.  Mike Norvell will be gone soon and the team knows it.  The 2-2 start this season has been alarmingly bad outside of the 14-point loss to Alabama, which they still gave up 567 yards and 8.6 per play.  Their 27-24 loss to SMU was a joke as they were outplayed badly giving up 585 yards and 8.7 per play to the Mustangs and should have lost by more, but were +3 in turnovers.  They only outgained New Mexico State by 100 yards in their 34-17 win as 31.5-point home favorites.  They only outgained Central Arkansas by 169 yards in their 34-7 win, not coming close to covering as 46.5-point favorites.  Virginia is proving its run to the ACC title game last year was no fluke, opening 3-1 this season with its only loss to West Virginia.  The Cavaliers covered the spread in their three other games beating NC State 34-8 and outgaining them by 245 yards.  They beat Norfolk State 59-3 as 46.5-point favorites and Delaware 42-3 as 19.5-point favorites.  We are getting the Cavaliers at a discount as only 2.5-point favorites against Florida State this week.  Give me Virginia.

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1* Free Sharp Play on England -125

Saturday Headliners includes the SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR Gators vs Tigers and a Big Red Zone Side. There is also MLB Playoff Game 1 power systems and Early Season NHL. Comp play below

The Saturday comp play in CFB Action is on Iowa St at 12 noon eastern. The Cyclones have won the last 2 in the series by double digits and are better than their 2-2 record as the losses came to undefeated Utah and Iowa. West Virginia may be 3-1 but has allowed 67 points the last 2 weeks and were blown out at home by OK. ST The Mountaineers are in a game 5 play against system that is based on teams off their first loss as a dog off a loss of 14 or more if they scored 35 or less and they are taking on a team off a home dog loss. These road teams have not covered since 2007. Look for Iowa St to to take home the spoils. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take the Over in Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (4 p.m., Saturday, October 3, FS1). We faded Maryland with last week’s free play, and the Terrapins delivered a rough performance in a 54-3 home loss to UCLA. That result has turned up the heat on their head coach, and we expect a better offensive effort this Saturday. The bigger concern remains Maryland’s defense, which surrendered 34 points to Virginia Tech before allowing 54 to UCLA. Nebraska has been piling up points, scoring 49, 56, 34, and 31 in its first four games of 2026. With the Cornhuskers rolling offensively and Maryland looking to respond, we like this matchup to go over the total. Back the Over. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Card, featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC, and soccer. Sign up now and put 54 years of handicapping experience to work for you!

Navy vs Air Force 
Noon EST 
5-Unit bet UNDER the posted total of 45.5 points 

This is one of my favorite betting algorithms and requires a bet on the UNDER in game involving the armed forces academies (Navy, Army, Air Force) that is played at home or on a neutral site and with the opponent of that game averaging 21 or more points. That combination of parameters has compiled a 29-9 UNDER record good for 76% winning bets since 2006.

67% ATS this College Football season and ranks #7 in profits and 3rd in ROI. Do not miss out on his 10-UNIT MAX bet of the Month going Saturday.
 

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Saturday’s Free Winner: Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Game 142.

1:00 PM PST/4:00 PM EST.

My friends, if the Cornhuskers didn’t have the Hoosiers and Ducks in back-to-back games on deck, this would’ve been a premium release for me. This is a much-improved Nebraska squad looking to put a hurting on a conference opponent here. Last year’s October 11 matchup on the road saw them eke out a 34-31 victory as nearly a touchdown favorite. So far, the Cornhuskers own a perfect 4-0 record which does include a 1-0 mark in Big 10 play. I mentioned a moment ago they have some tough opponents on deck. But this is their last chance to fine tune their squad on both sides of the line of scrimmage before their schedule gets tougher. By the way, they’re also a perfect 3-0 at home and have covered three of their four outings this season. In all sincerity, they could’ve covered the one game they did not as they were a 27.5-point favorite at home against North Dakota and won by 27-points. Maryland is in for a long and ugly campaign. They did come out victorious in their first two outings of the season. But those games were against Hampton and Connecticut. Their last two contests were both losses and no covers, both played at home against Virginia Tech and UCLA. As a matter of fact, this team has now lost eight of their last 10 going back to last season SU, and seven of those 10 ATS. Now, maybe they could be caught in a look-ahead role as seven days from this game, on the road they have to face Ohio State. Having said all that, the Terrapins offense can’t get out of their own way, committing five turnovers and ranking 91st on the ground. Yes, their passing game has been impressive ranking 28th in college football. But they did stall badly last week putting up just three-points at home against the Bruins. This week they are facing the 10th ranked scoring defense in college football. Not only are the Cornhuskers tough against the rush, they are also amazing against the pass. They rank in the top-25 in just about every major defensive category. Let’s flip it and talk about the Nebraska offense, which has only committed one turnover, is averaging over 42.5 PPG, ranks in the top-20 in rushing, and is solid in the air. How in the world can the UM defense slow them down? It isn’t going to happen, my friends. Of course, they allowed just 14 combined points against teams like Hampton and Connecticut. But when they stepped up in class, their defense got lit up for a combined 89 points the last two games against Virginia Tech and UCLA. As I mentioned at the start of this breakdown, if Nebraska wasn’t going up against Indiana and Oregon in the next two weeks, this would’ve been a premium release for me. Take the Cornhuskers. Thank you.

Colts -3

Indy has the cleaner path to controlling this game. Washington is allowing more than 280 passing yards per game, and opposing QB's have consistently found room against a defense that has surrendered 11 TD's through three weeks. The Commanders are also allowing TD's on 75% of opposing red-zone trips. That gives Daniel Jones a favorable matchup, but Jonathan Taylor is where I expect Indy to establish control. Washington is coming off an emotional win behind Marcus Mariota, while the Colts just handled a physical Houston defense. At only a FG, I'll lay it. Back Indy. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the COLTS -3. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

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Highmark Stadium gets the early window Sunday, and the number has already done the thing sharps hate. Patriots at Bills opened around Buffalo -3 and is now Bills -6.5, total 48.5, moneyline near -325. The play is Patriots +6.5.

Buffalo is 3-0 and the right side to win the game. They have scored 101 points and allowed 78, 33.7 and 26.0 per game, first and 21st. Yards are 401.7 a game, fourth. The point differential is +23, the margin of victory is 7.7, and the SRS is 0.9 on a soft schedule. Josh Allen is 56 of 86 for 786 yards, 5 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions, a 65.1 percent completion rate, plus 119 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores on 23 non-kneel carries. That is 11 touchdowns in three weeks from one human. James Cook has 346 yards at 6.0 a carry. Dalton Kincaid has 14 catches for 263 yards. Offensive EPA per play is 0.228, second in the league, and the run game is first in EPA per rush. If you are betting the moneyline, stop reading and take Buffalo.

The spread is a different market. A model that has the Bills winning about 72 percent of the time projects this 27-20 and calls -6.5 a coin flip, 50 percent either way. You do not lay a key number for a coin flip. The line moved from -3 to -6.5 because New England looks broken on offense, and the market overshot the hook.

The Patriots are 1-2. They have scored 36 points and allowed 51, 12.0 and 17.0 per game, 31st and sixth. Yards gained are 307.0, 21st. Yards allowed are 278.3, fifth, including 170.0 passing yards allowed, second. Point differential is -15. Offensive EPA per play is -0.130, 28th. Drake Maye’s EPA per play is around -0.070, 28th among quarterbacks. Points per drive are 0.97, worst in the league. Their only win was a 20-point effort against Pittsburgh. The other two weeks they looked like a team that forgot the end zone existed. That part is not a mirage.

The part the number is ignoring is the other side of the ball. New England’s defense is 12th in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per dropback. Buffalo’s defense is 25th in yards allowed at 361.3, 27th in passing yards allowed at 254.3, and 25th in EPA per play. They allow 2.52 points per drive, 25th. After giving up 31 in each of the first two weeks, they had one cleaner game against the Chargers and the market treated it like a rebirth. It was one week. This defense still leaks, and a leaky defense against a bad offense is how dogs cover without ever leading.

Third downs tell the same story. Buffalo converts 54.5 percent, New England 32.5 percent. Buffalo has 13 touchdowns, New England has 3. Buffalo has 8 rushing scores. If Cook and Allen live in the red zone, the Patriots are not winning this. They do not have to. A 24-17 or 27-20 is a winner on +6.5 and a loser on the moneyline. Last 10 meetings between these two have gone over 7 times, which fits a Bills team that scores and a Bills defense that gives some of it back. Weather is a shrug. Cloudy, about 61 degrees, wind around 9. Not a lake-effect alibi.

Bet the road dog when an AFC East favorite opens at -3 and closes at -6.5 or higher. The dog’s record in that spot since the 2023 season: 9-5 (64.3 percent) against an average spread of 6.5. (+2.9 unit$, ROI=19.3%)

Bet the points when the home favorite allows 25 or more points per game and the total is 48.5 or lower. The dog’s record since the 2024 season: 14-9 (60.9 percent) against an average spread of 6.0. (+3.1 unit$, ROI=12.7%)

Bet the under when New England is on the road and scoring under 15 points per game. The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-3 (66.7 percent) with an average over/under of 43.5. (+2.1 unit$, ROI=21.0%)

That last one is a lean, not the card. The total at 48.5 is a pass. Buffalo can hang 30 by itself, and the series has been a fireworks show more often than a rock fight. The side is the bet.

The hold is obvious. If Allen runs in two more scores and Cook keeps ripping off 6.0 a carry, -6.5 is the correct side and this ticket is a donation to the Orchard Park gift shop. New England has one passing touchdown all year. One. A defense can only keep you close for so long when the offense is producing less than a point per drive. That is why this is one unit, juice no worse than -105. If the number drips back to +7, buy it. If it snaps to +5.5, you are late. Shop +6.5. Let the hook do the work.

Pick was recorded at +6.5 ---with +7 being even better. 

My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Giants enter this game with the better overall record, I don't think there's any question it's the Cardinals that appear to have more upside through three weeks of the season. I really liked the fight Arizona showed in last week's loss but ATS cover on the road against the 49ers. Bettors wanted no part of the Cards after their blowout loss at home against Seattle in Week 2. Keep in mind, the Seahawks had extra time to prepare for that matchup after opening the season on a Wednesday. That's not to mention the fact that the Cards were in a clear letdown after pulling off a road upset of the Chargers in Week 1. The situation on offense is bad enough for the Giants that they elected to sign Vikings cast-off QB J.J. McCarthy. Last week's win over Tennessee had everything to do with the ineptness of the Titans and very little to do with New York's own crisp play. That was an ugly game all around that to put bluntly, someone had to win. While the Giants might have had a chance to compete this year with a healthy Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I fully expect them to quickly fall well back of the pack with Jameis Winston running what already looks like a broken offense (the fact that they're bent on featuring RB Cam Skattebo as the focal point is the biggest red flag). Take Arizona (8*).