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[1%] Free Play on Phillies under 8½ -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Braves vs Phillies under 8½ -110

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take LAFC/San Jose UNDER (7 p.m. EST, Sunday April 19) This is a major Western Conference clash between two title contenders and these have been the best two defensive sides in MLS this season (along with Seattle). They have allowed a combined four goals through 14 combined matches! Not only is this a big match for Western Conference status, but this is a great test for the Earthquake to show how solid they really are this season. Two seasons ago this was one of the worst sides in MLS but they rebuilt quickly and have a great squad this season. LAFC probably has the best chance to represent the west in the MLS Cup, so San Jose will want to play well here and we think they lean into their defense. These sides are behind the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference standings, and that team has an easy matchup Friday, so both sides here will want to keep pace. These matchups have generally been high scoring, but the Earthquake are a more focused defensive side this season and we think they will treat this like a playoff matchup and dig deep defensively.

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San Antonio -10 1/2

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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Over on Sunday, April 19:

The matchup sets up cleanly for a higher scoring game because both teams lean heavily on pace and young offensive talent while lacking defensive consistency. Portland’s perimeter defense has been one of the softest units in the league, especially on the road, and San Antonio’s young core thrives when they can push tempo and attack in transition. The Spurs’ ball movement offense tends to generate clean looks early in the shot clock, and Portland’s defensive rotations often break down against teams that move the ball quickly.

On the other side, the Blazers have enough scoring punch to hold up their end of the total. San Antonio’s defense has struggled to contain dribble penetration and pick and roll actions, which is exactly where Portland creates most of its offense. Add in two bottom tier defenses, two teams that prefer to run, and the likelihood of long stretches of up and down play, and this matchup has all the ingredients for an Over.

My selection is on Portland plus the points over San Antonio at 9 pm et on Sunday.

No one is giving the Trail Blazers much of a chance in this series and they enter Game 1 as double-digit underdogs on Sunday. While I certainly don't think Portland wins this series, I do think the opener may be its best shot of at least giving San Antonio a run. The Spurs reeled off three straight wins SU and ATS before dropping their regular season finale at home against Denver. That was despite having key contributors in and out of the lineup to rest up for the playoffs. With that being said, San Antonio enters the postseason having gone a middling 9-8 ATS over its last 17 games. It did handle Portland 112-101 without its fully complement of players on April 8th and that victory is undoubtedly fresh in the minds of most bettors. If the Blazers couldn't hang without Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle in the lineup for the Spurs, how can they possibly stay competitive here? It's worth noting that the Blazers got to the free throw line just 10 times in that contest - matching a season-low. I expect Portland to make the necessary adjustments and ultimately take a more aggressive, 'nothing-to-lose' type of approach on Sunday. For its part, the Portland checks in 8-3 ATS over its last 11 games. Take Portland (8*).