Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Heat -2½ -110

*Free Play Under* The Houston Cougars have the potential to shutdown the opposition. They held SIU Edwardsville to 40 points in the Round of 64 last year. They held Longwood to 46 points two years ago. 

Houston is a top five team in the country and they are a top five defense. The Cougars also play at a bottom 15 pace nationally. They are good at dictating the pace. 

Idaho will have to be making shots from outside in order to score much at all here. Tugler is going to be a major problem with his length and shot blocking ability.

Games with a big spread have been good under wagers in the last 15 years of the NCAA Tournament. I think this will be a run away, and I'm going to back the under. 

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Ricky's 1* play on SJ.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Sharks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

- The Sabres are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

- The Sharks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Verdict: The value is on the home underdog.

#737 ASA PLAY ON Texas +2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We did take a shot with BYU to win this Region at 50 to 1 simply because we thought it was a solid value play if they would happen to hit their stride. We’re not confident in this team whose numbers dropped off a cliff down the stretch. Teams that come into the tourney that have lost at least 7 of their last 15 games (BYU is 6-9 their last 15) are a terrible 11-33 SU and 13-24 ATS in the NCAA opener dating back to 2013. Going back even further, the Cougars started the season with a 16-1 record and have closed out the season with a 7-10 record since then. The loss of one of their top players Richie Saunders has been devastating to this team and they haven’t been able to figure out how to fill his shoes. BYU ranks 296th in Haslam’s momentum metric and defensively they’ve been bad ranking 143rd in efficiency since February 1st. That’s not great facing a Texas offense that is 18th in offensive efficiency this season. The Longhorns played on Tuesday night and topped NC State in a 68-66 final. The Wolfpack made a late flurry but Texas controlled the game throughout leading for 88% of the game. Dating back to the 2010 season, double digit power conference seeds when tabbed a dog have covered 60% of the time. Texas was also a money making 9-5 ATS this year as an underdog. We don’t love the situation with Texas playing on Tuesday and then traveling to the West Coast, but we have a history with at least 1 First 4 team winning in the round of 64 in 12 of the last 14 seasons. We think that team this year is Texas.

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: South Florida +4.5

This line was sitting at +4.5 to +5.5 before Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) was ruled out for the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  The full adjustment has not taken place yet, and he's worth more than this current +4.5 spread indicates.

The Cardinals averaged 84.8 points pre game overall this season but just 78.7 points per game in the 12 games without Brown Jr.  He opens everything up for their offense, and they are much easier to defend without him.  They went just 7-5 SU in their 12 games without Brown Jr. this season.

Louisville was fortunate to get by SMU 62-58 in their ACC Tournament opener after trailing basically the entire way until the final few minutes.  That was a SMU team missing one of its best players in BJ Edwards as well.  Louisville lost 78-73 to Miami a day later.

It took some time for USF to gel under first-year head coach Bryan Hodgson.  And yet they still played close games with Oklahoma State and Alabama on the road, as well as VCU on a neutral.  They also upset Utah State at home in the non-conference.

But since the the start of 2026, USF's three losses either came in OT or by 1 point.  The Bulls have gone 14-1 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Six of their last seven wins have come by 15 points or more with the other coming by 7 at Memphis.  They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season coming into the NCAA Tournament.

Wes Enis (16.8 PPG) has scored at least 19 points in five consecutive games.  Izaiyah Nelson (15.7 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.4 BPG) followed Hodgson from Arkansas State and is a monster.  Joseph Pinion (14.2 PPG), Josh Omojafo (11.5 PPG) and C.J. Brown (11.1 PPG) are a trio of guards that complement those two nicely and give the Bulls one of the most potent starting lineups in the country.  The Bulls rank 40th in adjusted defense this season, too.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

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Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Houston -23.5

The Key: The Houston Cougars will be happy to get out of the Big 12 gauntlet and get back to beating up on overmatched competition which they are notorious for in the non-conference.  The Cougars opened 23-2 this season with their only losses to Tennessee by 3 and Texas Tech by 4.  They take on a Idaho team that benefited from getting to play the Big Sky Tournament in their home state.  Idaho lost to Sam Houston State by 26 in the non-conference.  The Vandals only played one team ranked inside the Top 100 which was Notre Dame in a 15-point loss.  This will be far and away their stiffest test of the season.  Take Houston.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Islanders vs Senators over 5½ -130

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Vanderbilt -11.5

Vanderbilt has been dominant with a healthy Duke Miles this season.  The Commodores beat Tennessee by 7 and Florida by 17 in the SEC Tournament before falling to Arkansas in the championship game.  They fell victims to the Razorbacks shooting 62.5% from 3 in that game.  This is a big step down in competition here against McNeese State.  Vanderbilt dominated in non-conference play opening the season 16-0 with 13 of those wins by double-digits.  McNeese State lost by 12 to Santa Clara, by 41 to Michigan and was upset by Incarnate Word in the non-conference.  The Cowboys rely heavily on forcing turnovers to generate easy offense.  They rank 1st in the country in forcing turnovers.  But Vanderbilt ranks 11th in the country turning it over on just 13.3% of possessions.  The Commodores have elite guards that will take care of the ball and make McNeese State pay for its pressure defense.  Give me Vanderbilt.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Troy State +13 -110

MAJOR MARCH MADNESS CARD up with TOP TIER 1 Side, a PERFECT TOTALS System Play and a Later Seeding System Play. Comp play below

The NCAAB Tournament comp play is on Hawaii plus the points. Game 735 at 4:25 eastern. The Warriors will slow this one down and the points are the play as We note that round 1 favorites off a conference championship dog win and cover by >10 points are 11-1-1 to the spread over the last 26 seasons. vs an opponent off a win and cover. The Razorback were all out to win the SEC Championship game winning 3 straight games. The Warriors have just 2 losses this year by 15+ points so we will back them today at +15. GL Rob V

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #759 Queens Royals +25.5 over Purdue Boilermakers (7:35p.m., Friday, March 20 TruTV) Purdue showed up in Chicago for the Big 10 Tournament but they have not played well during the second half of the season. We will grab the points with the Royals on Friday night in St. Louis, MO. Purdue is nowhere near as strong on defense this year and many of their stars are not shooting it well. They got a cakewalk to the Big 10 Finals by getting to play a depleted UCLA team on Saturday. They are overseeded and are not a strong two seed. The Royals can score points and should get hot at some point in this game to cover this spread. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Card featuring top plays in basketball, hockey, and other sports. Sign-up now and let 54 years of handicapping experience work for you.