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Saturday's Free CFB Pick

PLAY ON: Florida State +21.5 

1* Free Pick on Broncos +2½

Denver getting 2.5 at home against a Seattle team that just coughed the ball up 4 times is the number I want on Thursday night.

The Seahawks lost 32-29 to the 49ers on Sunday.

Sam Darnold threw 2 picks, and both Emanuel Wilson and George Holani lost fumbles.

Darnold is up to 5 interceptions in three full games this season after a league-worst 20 turnovers in 2025.

Now Seattle has to fix that on a short week, on the road, at altitude.

That's a bad spot for a sloppy offense.

The injury report doesn't help.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is questionable with an ankle issue after being estimated as limited on both practice reports.

Zach Charbonnet remains out.

Asked if Charbonnet would play, Mike Macdonald said, "As of right now, the answer is no, subject to change".

That leaves Wilson, fresh off a fumble, leading the backfield.

If Smith-Njigba is limited or out, there isn't much behind him.

Cooper Kupp has seen three or fewer targets in four of five games.

Rashid Shaheed has 9 catches for 96 yards with no receiving touchdowns.

Denver isn't pretty on offense at 19.4 points a game, but the Broncos are 3-2 and just won 23-17 at the Chargers.

That defense held Los Angeles to 17 without Pat Surtain.

Surtain is doubtful again and Riley Moss is questionable, which is why the points are here.

I'll take them.

A home team off a road win, catching 2.5 against a turnover machine on a short week, is value at this price.

I like the Broncos

1* FREE INFO PLAY Seahawks vs Broncos under 41 -115

The American Athletic Conference GAME OF THE YEAR Headlines tonight and it is backed with a NEVER Lost Thursday system dating to 1985. We also have 4 Undefeated Systems and Angles in the NFL. Early MLB Total below

The Early MLB Totals Play is on the UNDER 6.5 runs in the Tampa Bay at Cleveland game at 1 eastern. Tampa goes with G. Jax and he has allowed 1 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. Williams for the Guardians went nearly 8 innings allowing just a run here earlier this season vs the Ray. In the series 8 of the last 10 have stayed under. The game also applies to a nice total system pertaining to game 3 of a series where the total is less than 7. Play this one UNDER. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #209239 Atlante/Pumas UNAM DRAW (+235) (11 p.m., Friday, October 16 Fox Sports Deportes) Liga MX.

We see value in the draw between two sides struggling to find consistency. Atlante has shared the points in five of its first 11 league matches, including three of five at home. With just one home victory, the hosts have had trouble turning competitive performances into wins. Pumas UNAM has defensive concerns of its own, conceding 11 goals over its last five matches. That makes the visitors difficult to trust to claim all three points on the road. We expect a closely contested matchup with chances for both teams, but neither side doing enough to pull away. At +235, take the draw. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC and soccer. Sign-up with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Wyoming -7.5

Locking this in early.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

 UCLA is laying 2.5–3 at home against a 4-1 Wisconsin team on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl, with the total sitting in the low-to-mid 40s. The number has been short and relatively stable in that range. Wisconsin is the better ATS side this season, and a short home favorite against a team already 4-1 is the tax. The points are the work.

 Wisconsin sits at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten), averaging 31.6 points while allowing 16.6. The Badgers have been efficient on both sides of the ball (6.2 yards per play on offense, strong defensive numbers), with a perfect red-zone scoring rate and solid control in recent wins. They opened with a loss to Notre Dame but have since reeled off four straight victories, including a 24-20 road win at Penn State and a 31-3 home win over Michigan State. Wisconsin is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 on the total. Their defense has limited opponents to roughly 16–17 points per game, and the offense has been balanced enough to stay in games without relying on explosive variance.

UCLA is 5-0 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked around No. 12, averaging 39.2 points while allowing 18.0. The Bruins have covered in every game so far (5-0 ATS) and have wins over California, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, and a 17-15 road upset at Oregon as double-digit underdogs. Their offense has been productive, particularly on the ground (over 1,200 rushing yards), but the quarterback situation is a major variable: Nico Iamaleava left the Oregon game with injuries and is expected to be limited or out, elevating Ty Dieffenbach or another option. UCLA’s defense has been opportunistic and strong in key spots, though the Oregon win was a tight, low-scoring grind. They are 3-2 on the total.

Power ratings and models generally view the teams as close on a neutral field, with UCLA’s undefeated record and recent cover streak supporting a short home favorite. Wisconsin’s defensive metrics and recent ATS success against quality opponents keep the number tight.

This is a physical Big Ten road test at the historic Rose Bowl. Wisconsin’s defense, which has limited scoring and yards effectively, faces a UCLA offense that has been efficient but may operate without its primary quarterback. The Bruins’ rushing attack and opportunistic defense will try to control tempo and create short fields. Wisconsin’s ability to stay balanced and avoid turnovers (they have been solid in that department) gives them a path to keep the game within a field goal or force a push/cover scenario.

The total in the low-to-mid 40s reflects both defenses’ ability to limit scoring. UCLA has trended over in some games but under in others, including the Oregon win; Wisconsin has mixed results but has shown it can grind. Weather at the Rose Bowl looks warm and clear. Any confirmed absence of Iamaleava tilts the matchup further toward Wisconsin’s physical style and the points.

UCLA leads the all-time series roughly 7-4. The teams have not met since 2000, when Wisconsin won 21-20. Wisconsin has taken the last three meetings overall (1993, 1998, and 2000). Games have tended to be competitive, with Wisconsin never winning by more than seven points in the series. Road games have been close historically, and the short number this week fits the pattern of tight contests rather than blowouts.

Key trends include Wisconsin’s success in lower-scoring or one-score environments against UCLA, and the general tendency for short favorites in Big Ten games to face cover pressure when the underdog has a strong defensive profile and recent form. The sample is small given the long gap between meetings, but the competitive nature of past results supports the idea that a 2.5–3 point home favorite is not a large edge.

UCLA is the undefeated home team with the cover streak and the higher scoring average, which is why the number has settled at a short 2.5–3 rather than something larger. Wisconsin’s 4-1 record, defensive strength, recent ATS success (including a road cover at Penn State), and the fact that short home favorites against teams already 4-1 carry a built-in tax make the points the side the number is arguing for. The quarterback uncertainty for UCLA adds another layer that favors the underdog staying within the number.

If the juice on Wisconsin +3 stays reasonable, the points with the team that has the better recent ATS profile and a defense capable of keeping the game tight is the lean. Shop the number (it has moved between 2.5 and 3.5 in spots) and monitor the UCLA quarterback situation through the week. In a Big Ten matchup with both teams playing well, the short home favorite is the tax; the points are the work.

Luke Fickell is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Wisconsin this season, including a 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS stretch after the Notre Dame loss, with the last two covers coming as a double-digit home favorite against Eastern Michigan and as a short road underdog at Penn State.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS overall and has already covered as a 9.5-point road underdog at Penn State. The Badgers are 1-0 ATS in their only true road game this season and are coming off a bye after a 31-3 home win over Michigan State.

UCLA is 5-0 ATS and is laying a short number at home after a ranked road win. Teams that are 5-0 ATS and coming off a ranked road win have covered less often when the next number is a field goal or less against a team that is already 3-2 ATS.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four games, including the road upset at Penn State. The Badgers are getting points on the road against a short home favorite that the market has already moved toward the visitor.

The number opened UCLA -3 and is now -2.5. Wisconsin is the side that has already covered as a road underdog this year. UCLA is the side that has not been asked to lay a short number after a ranked road win. That is the spot.