Free Football Picks

1* Free Pick on Cal-Riverside/BYU: under 154½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #483 Miami Dolphins over Pittsburgh Steelers (8:15p.m., Monday, December 15 ESPN) Just do not trust the Steelers to be consistent following their big win over Baltimore last Sunday. Miami is riding high winning 4 straight games, and I think they will be able to take this game down to the wire on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh has a key injury on offense and if he is not 100% they are not the same team. The Dolphins won the last meeting with the Steelers, and I feel we will be on the correct side backing the underdog. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Card featuring top plays in basketball, hockey, and FCS Football.

1* Free Sharp Play on Spurs vs Thunder over 226½ -110

Free Pick on Boise State +10½ -110

1* Best Bet on LSU +105

No analysis provided.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Chicago Bears -7.5

Note: My favorite way to play the Bears is in a 6-point teaser at -1.5 with the Patriots +7.5 or better at -125 or better.  Currently widely available at the time of this writing on Friday.

My lone concern with the Bears is this is a sandwich spot in between the loss to Green Bay last week and with the Packers on deck next week.  However, they trail the Packers by 0.5 games in the division now, so if they lose and the Packers win in Denver next week's game won't be for first place.  So they have to be motivated and focused to handle their business first, and I think they will be this week.

The Bears have gotten healthier the last couple weeks on defense and have proven what they are capable of when that's the case.  Two weeks ago they pulled the 24-15 upset in Philadelphia as 7-point dogs.  They dominated that game with 425 total yards while outgaining the Eagles by 108 yards.  They rushed for 281 yards on a very good Philadelphia defense.

The Bears were nearly as impressive in defeat last week losing 28-21 in Green Bay with a chance to win the game late before a INT in the end zone.  They were likely going for 2 and the win had they scored.  They were only outgained by 22 yards by the Packers, who I believe to be a Top 5 team in the NFL right now.

Leading receiver Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) sat out the Green Bay game with a foot injury.  He is expected back this week.  The Bears would be at full strength on offense if he returns as they are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have three LB's back from injury that they didn't have earlier this season in TJ Edwards, Noah Sewell and Ruben Hyppolite II.  They have CB's Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson back from injury now, and CJ Gardner-Johnson has been a great addition.  The only starter they are missing on defense is CB Kyler Gordon.

As much as I like the Bears right now due to their improved health, this play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Browns than anything.  Shedeur Sanders won his first start in Las Vegas against the hapless Raiders.  But their last two games were very concerning, and it's not exactly his fault, it's just that everyone around him is going down.  It's like he's being set up to fail.

The Browns lost 26-8 to the 49ers at home two weeks ago and were upset 31-29 by the Titans as 3.5-point home favorites last week.  Now they must hit the road where they are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season while getting outscored by 12.3 points per game even when you factor in that 14-point win in Vegas.

The injury report is brutal for the Browns, especially on offense.  They will be down at least three starters on the offensive line in RT Jack Conklin, RG Wyatt Teller and C Ethan Pocic.  LG Joel Bitonio is questionable, and LT Dawand Jones is on IR.  So they would be down the five starters on the O-Line they expected to have at the beginning of the season if Bitonio cannot go.

TE David Njoku suffered an injury last week that will keep him out this week.  WR Cedric Tillman and WR Malachi Corley are questionable, while backup RB Dylan Sampson is out.  Defensively, the Browns haven't been the same since DT Maliek Collins went on IR.  They are much more susceptible to the run without him, as evidenced by allowing 184 rushing yards to the Titans last week.  DT Adin Huntington and CB Denzel Ward are out, and DT Mason Graham is questionable as well.  They have one of the worst injury reports in the NFL going into this week.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

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1*  NCAAB - Indiana/Kentucky FREE PICK on Kentucky -2.5

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 41

The Key: Both the Chiefs and Chargers are really hurting along the offensive line right now.  Justin Herbert not only is playing with a broken hand, but he is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  He was under pressure on 70% of his drop backs last week against Philadelphia and he was sacked a season-high 7 times.  The Chiefs are down 3 starters on the offensive line in LT Simmons, RT Taylor and RG Smith.  They will also be without starting WR Hollywood Brown this week.  It's easy to see why both of these offenses are struggling.  But both teams are led by 2 of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 7th in scoring defense at 19.4 PPG and 9th in total defense at 303.7 YPG despite facing a very difficult schedule of opposing offenses.  The Chargers rank 4th in total defense at 282.2 YPG.  Temperatures will be in the teens Sunday in Kansas City and I just can't see Herbert and company sniffing 20 points.  This feels like a 20-17 or 20-13 type win for the Chiefs in the freezing cold.  Take the UNDER.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Houston Texans -9.5

The Houston Texans are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall since a 0-3 start.  They now trail the Jaguars by just one game in the AFC South, so they cannot afford to take their foot off the gas now.  That's why I'm not concerned about it coming off three straight huge wins over the Bills, Colts and Chiefs with two of those on the road.  Now they get to let their hair down and take a big step down in class here against the Arizona Cardinals, who are one of the worst teams in the NFL in their current state.  The Cardinals have lost five straight and are 1-9 in their last 10 games.  They are coming off a 45-17 home loss to the Rams.  It was the 3rd time in 5 games they have given up at least 41 points.  Their defense has no hope with all they are missing due to injury.  And it's even worse on offense right now down two starting receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Xavier Weaver, and down their two best backup receivers in Jones and Dortch.  They are down two starters on the offensive line in LT Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Evan Brown as well.  The Texans are fully healthy with the exception of SS Jaylen Reed, but they have plenty of depth there to make up for it.  Give me the Texans.

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Sunday card has 4 big plays including a TOP Red Zone release in Early in AFC East, the NFC South Game of the Year, 14-0 Packers vs Broncos system plus 100% SNF. There is also NBA and CBB. Comp play below.

The NFL Comp play is on the Eagles at 1 eastern. The Eagles look to bounce back off a 3 game losing streak and a tough OT Loss on MNF to the Chargers. Now they get the remedy, a home game against the Raiders. Rob notes that home favorites of 13 or less are 8-0 to the spread off a road favored loss where they had 4 or more turnovers and are taking on a team off a home dog loss. The Raiders were down 17 late in the 4th when Denver took their foot off the gas in a 7 point win that was much worse than the final score. The Eagles also fit another system that has cashed all but one time since 1990 for home favorites in non division games that are off a Monday night football road favored loss if they rushed for more than 70 yards and lost the game prior to MNF and they are taking on a team off a home loss. Look for Philly to coast to a cover. GL Rob V-

SU:8-0 

AT:  8-0

Eagles  VS  Raiders  home  -12.5

1* Free Pick on Thunder -10 -110

Joe D is on an 8-2 ALL SPORTS RUN and today I have the WINNER of the ARMY/NAVY matchup for you. Over the L25 years I am documented I have dominated this rivalry. This year I DO IT AGAIN!

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Boise State Broncos.

Game 197.

6:00 PM PST/9:00 PM EST.

Laying double-digits in any bowl game is always a dangerous situation. I do think it's dangerous in this situation as Boise State and Washington meet at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Granted there's an argument the Huskies face better opposition through the regular season than do the Broncos, and yes, with high-profile losses to Bulls and the Fighting Irish hurt BSU’s chance to elevate to the CFP. Yes, the Huskies are coming off a high-profile loss themselves at the hands of the Ducks. As a matter of fact, Boise State comes into this matchup a little hotter winning three consecutive outings against Colorado State, Utah State, and UNLV. I'm not going to argue Washington puts up more points and allows less. However, this is a team that likes to throw the ball, and they're going up against the 11th ranked pass defense in the nation. Not only that, but the Broncos defense has forced 14 turnovers. BSU also likes to run the ball considerably, and kill a lot of clock. While I think I agree with many out there that facing better oppositions in the regular season gives Washington an advantage, I think this is a lot of points. I'll take Boise State to keep this game closer than the pointspread. Thank you.

OVER 6.5

Toronto and Edmonton have value to the over. This is going to be a wide open game where both teams push the tempo. Edmonton averages 3.32 gpg, while the Maple Leafs are around 3.30 gpg. Both teams have some of the best playmakers in the NHL and we’ll see a back and forth game with both teams peppering the opposing net. Grab the over. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the OVER tonight. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE NHL O/U Play

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Saturday's CBB Free Pick

PLAY ON: LSU +1.5

With the Capitals listed at -120 on the moneyline, this game presents a compelling opportunity to back a team riding a wave of consistency against a struggling host. Washington's recent form has been nothing short of impressive, boasting a 7-0-2 record over their last nine games, including gritty performances that have seen them earn points in 13 of their past 14 outings. This streak underscores their defensive prowess, ranking second in the league for goals allowed per game at just 2.52, a trend that's been bolstered by goaltender Logan Thompson's stellar play. Thompson enters with a sparkling 1.96 goals-against average and a .926 save percentage, providing a reliable backbone even on the road where the Caps have gone 4-1 straight up in their last five away contests.

Digging into the angles, the Capitals' road warrior mentality shines through in their 10-4 against-the-spread record away from home this season, a mark that highlights their ability to grind out wins in hostile environments. Offensively, they've averaged 3.39 goals per game, good for fourth in the NHL, but it's their balanced attack and penalty kill—despite ranking lower at 24.21%—that could exploit Winnipeg's inconsistencies. The Jets, meanwhile, have stumbled badly, posting a dismal 2-7-1 record over their last 10 games, including a 1-4 straight-up mark in their past five home tilts. This slide has been exacerbated by goaltending woes, particularly with Connor Hellebuyck on injured reserve due to a knee issue, though he's ramping up and could potentially return—albeit not at full strength. If backup Eric Comrie starts, as projected, his 3.30 GAA and .885 save percentage could prove vulnerable against Washington's opportunistic scorers like Connor McMichael and Nic Dowd, who have contributed timely goals in recent close contests.

Head-to-head trends add another layer to this pick. While the Jets hold a 5-2 straight-up edge in their last seven home games against the Capitals, Washington has flipped the script overall, winning eight of the past 12 meetings outright. Their most recent encounter on November 26 saw the Caps edge out a 4-3 victory, a game where the over cashed but highlighted Winnipeg's defensive lapses—allowing 34 shots while mustering only 21 of their own. My projections give Washington a 52% win probability here, factoring in their superior overall record (18-9-4) compared to Winnipeg's middling 14-15-1 mark.

Ultimately, the value lies in backing Washington at -120; their momentum, goaltending edge, and road resilience make them the smarter play against a Jets team desperate to snap their skid but lacking the consistency to do so reliably.

Boise State/Washington College Football Free Pick 

The Trend(s): The Washington Huskies are 6-3 against the spread as favorites, 5-2 when laying nine points or more. Boise State is 0-2 straight up and 1-1 against the spread as underdogs, and the game they covered they were spotted over three touchdowns. 

Play on: WASHINGTON (2%). 

Mike is on a 6-3 (67%) PREMIUM PICK RUN. For Saturday, he has as of the publication of this free pick CFB and NBA picks loaded for subscribers, and more might've been added. He has also already posted NFL for Sunday/Monday. Grab a 3-day all-sports subscription and your weekend is covered with winners. 

#455/456 ASA FREE PLAY ON Under 42.5 Points – Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Texans defense is elite and clearly one of the best in the NFL. They have allowed 20 or less points in 11 of 13 games this season. The Texans give up the fewest total yards per game at 266 YPG and they allowed just 4.9 YPP. They allowed a league low 1.37 points per drive and Houston leads the NFL in defensive success rate vs the pass. That’s bad news for an Arizona offense that passes on over 65% of the offensive snaps, 2nd most in the NFL. The Cardinal offense was on a decent roll after QB Brissett took over, but they’ve now been held to 17 points in back to back games. We don’t expect them to reach that number on Sunday. Brissett will be under pressure in this game as Arizona allows over an 8% sack rate which is 26th in the NFL. Houston’s defense is 6th in the NFL in sack rate and sacks per game. Houston relies on their defense and their offense just does enough to win games. The Texans are outside the top 20 in both YPG and YPP on offense and they’ve been held to 20 points or less in 8 games this season. Arizona’s defensive numbers don’t look great but they’ve faced a number of high level offenses including 6 top 10 offenses in their last 8 games. Houston’s offense stays conservative and does just enough to win here while shutting down the Cardinal offense. Under is the play.