Free Football Picks

*Free Play on North Carolina* The North Carolina Tar Heels have really turned the corner recently. North Carolina has decided to go extremely pass heavy, and it is working. Jelani Thurman is a top notch tight end who is a matchup problem for nearly everyone. Billy Edwards has been working the short passing game in recent weeks very successfully.

Louisville's biggest weakness is against the pass. The Cardinals secondary will be tested here. Louisville is a very good offense, but they aren't likely to hit as many explosives as normal in this one. North Carolina is 9th in the nation in explosiveness allowed. 

Louisville is heavy penalized (7.11 penalties per game). The Tar Heels average only 4.44 penalties per game (9th in the country).

I'll grab the points and North Carolina.

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[1%] Free Play on CS Sacramento -3 -115

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Tennessee/Texas A&M UNDER 44.5

There will be 15 MPH winds in College Station on Saturday that will aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Tennessee and Texas A&M.  But there's a lot more reasons to back the UNDER, especially above the key number of 44.

Texas A&M has really been an UNDER team in conference play.  The Aggies have gone 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 41 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.  You could argue the Aggies have the worst offense in the SEC this season as QB Marcel Reed has taken a big step back.  He is averaging just 6.2 yards per pass attempt with a 8-to-8 TD/INT ratio and only 206 rushing yards on 2.6 per carry this season.

The Aggies have been held to just 16.0 points per game in SEC play this season.  But their defense has kept them in games, allowing just 18.7 points per game on the season.  They rank 22nd in scoring defense and 28th in total defense this season.

Tennessee has gone 7-2 UNDER this season as Josh Heupel has really leaned into relying on his defense to win games instead of the high-octane offenses he has been known for in the past.  The Vols rank 10th in scoring defense this season allowing just 15.1 points per game.  They are also 17th in total defense at 296.4 yards per game.  The Vols are only allowing 15.7 points per game in conference play.

This Tennessee offense has been disappointing all season scoring just 24.8 points per game in SEC play.  QB MacIntyre has a 2-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season and offers nothing in the way of a dual-threat with 15 carries for zero yards.  They are a run-first offense, but they are without 2nd-leading rusher Duane Morris (434 yards, 6.6/carry, 3 TD).

Tennessee has been an up-tempo offense under Heupel up until this season as the Vols rank just 63rd in tempo snapping the ball every 26.2 seconds.  Texas A&M ranks 93rd in tempo snapping the ball every 27.5 seconds.  I expect both defenses to have their way with these two offenses today in another SEC grinder between two teams who are used to playing in defensive battles.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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Duke is 7-2 and has not lost a game by more than four points all season. The Blue Devils are playing their best ball, outscoring Boston College and North Carolina State by a combined margin of 89-5 during their last two games.

Duke has the defense and motivation to stay with Miami and that was before last week. The Hurricanes are in a vulnerable physical and mental state after rallying from a 21-point deficit against Notre Dame last Saturday before losing, 31-24, in controversial fashion.

Duke's defense is very underrated. Only four teams have allowed fewer points per game than the Blue Devils. Duke also has allowed the 11th fewest yards per game and is 11th in run defense.

The Blue Devils certainly will be well prepared for Miami quarterback Darian Mensah. He left the Blue Devils high and dry after starring for them last year.

If this isn't enough incentive, Duke Coach Manny Diaz was fired by Miami after being the Hurricanes' head coach from 2019-2021.

The Hurricanes remain without their star injured wide receiver Malachi Toney. I rate Toney right there with Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State as the best wide receiver in college football. It's a huge loss for Miami not having Toney.

Duke is averaging 33 points a game. The Blue Devils are a better rushing than passing team, but Miami has allowed an average of 331.3 passing yards in its last three games.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has won his last four premium/free college football plays and has three premium CFB plays going Saturday, headed by his Underdog Game of the Year, in addition to this free selection.)

1* Free Pick on Raiders +3½

Seattle rolls into Las Vegas without its starting quarterback, and I don't think a field goal and a half properly prices what this offense looks like right now.

Sam Darnold is out. Drew Lock is in line to start again, and even he is questionable with Jalen Milroe behind him, a quarterback who hasn't taken a regular-season snap this year. Seattle has scored 17 points in back-to-back games with Lock running the show, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba just posted a season low in receiving yards working with him.

The protection in front of Lock is a problem too. Left tackle Charles Cross and guard Quenton Nelson are both doubtful. A backup quarterback behind a patchwork line on the road is a hard way to cover anything.

Seattle is averaging just 19.4 points over its last 5, and the Seahawks are 2-3 in that stretch. This is not the offense the market remembers from earlier in the season.

The Raiders can score on anybody. Kirk Cousins has produced 21 total touchdowns through nine starts. Brock Bowers has hit 70 receiving yards in all seven of his appearances with 6 touchdowns, and Matt Gay is 19-for-21 on field goals kicking indoors. Vegas is averaging 26.4 points a game and hung 38 on the Jets two weeks ago.

Seattle's defense is legitimately good, no argument there. But against a limited offense that struggles to reach 20, the Raiders only need to keep this a one-score game, and they have the weapons to do it at home.

Give me the Raiders +3.5 (-110) in Seahawks at Raiders.

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Washington -2

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Washington as a short road favorite over Michigan State this week.  No question Washington is the superior team when you look at the numbers.  The Huskies average 5.7 YPP on offense and yield 5.4 YPP on defense.  The Spartans average 4.5 YPP on offense and yield 5.4 YPP on defense.  They are also one of the most banged up teams in the country dealing with a plethora of injuries.  But the main reason for this play is the letdown spot for the Spartans, who are coming off a shocking 15-6 win over rival Michigan last week as 14-point dogs.  They have Oregon on deck next week and will be flat as a pancake in this sandwich spot against the Huskies.  Take Washington.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Alabama vs Vanderbilt under 49½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on San Diego State +3

The San Diego State Aztecs are tied for 2nd place in the wide open Pac-12.  They have the big advantage of having a bye last week to prepare for this stretch run.  Utah State doesn't have the same luxury and will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after a hard-fought 17-10 home win over Fresno State last week.  These teams have huge home/road splits.  SDSU is 4-1 SU at home this season including wins over Texas State and Fresno State.  Utah State is 0-4 SU on the road this season.  It's an ugly injury report for the Aggies heading into this game too as they will be without several starters including two starting OL and two key LB's on defense.  They will also be without their best WR in Eli Wood (37 receptions, 479 yards, 5 TD) and S Chapman Lewis (32 tackles).  Give me San Diego State.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Nevada -10 -110

Huge Saturday CFB Card up with a TOP Afternoon RED Zone Play, 2 TOP Totals and a RARE 10* Side in the Utah vs Arizona game. We also have our Early Season College Hoops systems and NBA. BIG 10 Comp play below

The BIG 10 Comp play is  on Michigan plus the 10-11 points at 3:30 eastern. Rob notes that week 11 or later home favorites off a road dog win at +4 or more that scored more than 31 points and are taking on an .850 or less opponent that scored less than 27 points in a home favored loss are 0-10 to the spread since 1991. Oregon even at home may bounce a bit here off the huge win at Ohio St last week. The Wolverines have the defense to keep this close. Take the points here. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take UCF Knights over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday, November 14, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2)

Both teams have had up-and-down seasons, and the winner clinches bowl eligibility. I like UCF to take care of business at the Acrisure Bounce House and earn its second straight win and third in four games. Arizona State is coming off a home win over Colorado, but the Sun Devils have alternated wins and losses all season. I expect that pattern to continue in Orlando, where I like the Knights to win by double digits.

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Texans -4.5

Houston is finding its offensive rhythm at exactly the right time, and Cleveland is walking into a matchup that doesn't favor its defense. The Texans just hung 44 points on the Chargers, and that balanced attack should give the Browns plenty of headaches. Houston can establish the ground game early, forcing Cleveland to respect the run before opening up opportunities through the air. Deshaun Watson facing his former team makes for a nice storyline, but revenge doesn't block anybody or stop an offense that's gaining momentum. With playoff positioning on the line, Houston has the weapons to create separation and turn this into a comfortable win. Lay the points with the Texans. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the Texans -4.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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The current run has been strong. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors figure to line up to back the Rams on Sunday as they roll into this game on the heels of three straight wins both SU and ATS and just welcomed back Myles Garrett to an already fearsome defense last week. Of course, Arizona is down to third-string rookie quarterback Carson Beck after trading away Jacoby Brissett and losing backup Gardner Minshew to an injury. I don't expect the Cardinals to put too much on Beck's plate here. While Arizona isn't a great team, it hasn't given up on the season, having split its last four games. The problem for the Cards has been stringing together consecutive strong performances which is why last Sunday's rather lifeless 14-3 loss in Seattle wasn't a surprise following an 'upset' win in Dallas the week previous. Arizona continues to play hard defensively, holding six of its nine opponents to 5.8 yards per play or fewer this season and its last two foes to just 3.8 and 4.8 yards per play. The Rams offense has been anything but explosive for much of the season and will be without WR Puka Nacua who joins Davante Adams on the sidelines this week. This one might not be pretty but we'll grab all the points we can get with Arizona. Take Arizona (8*).

#219 ASA FREE PLAY ON Boston College +29.5 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

Great spot to fade the Irish as a huge favorite. They are coming off beating Miami last Saturday, a game they’ve been pointing to the entire season. They got their win vs a big time opponent that they needed and they face another solid team, SMU, next week. If there was ever a letdown spot, this is it. They don’t need to win this game by 30+ points, they just need to win. The Irish have LOTS of key injuries on the defensive side of the ball right now down multiple starters and others who may play but are banged up. We wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Marcus Freeman sat some of those guys this week (to start the game or after they get a lead) to get them some rest before they face SMU next week. BC is no pushover this year. They have a 4-5 record and a positive YPP and YPG differential. Since their opening season loss @ Cincinnati, the Eagles have only one loss by double digits @ Duke. Last week they gave Florida State all they could handle last week leading in the 4th quarter and an FSU TD with 2:30 remaining in the game gave them the 7 point win. They beat a solid Pitt team and they lost at SMU by single digits and outgained the Mustangs by over 100 yards (5.0 YPP to 3.5 YPP in that loss). The Eagles have a solid running game (21st in rush success rate) and their defense limits explosive plays (33rd) which should prevent Notre Dame from quick scores. These 2 have met 27 times since 1983 and the Irish have been favored by more than 24 points just twice and they are 0-2 ATS in those games. In those 27 meetings, the Irish have won by 30+ points just 4 times. Last year BC lost 25-10 in this match up and the Eagles are better this season. Let’s take the points.