Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Golden Knights over 6½ -115

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints PK

1* Free Pick on Guardians +102

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Sunday Free Play. This is a prime letdown spot for Buffalo as it is coming off a huge overtime win over the Rams on Monday so the Bills also have the rest disadvantage. This is the second straight game out west and they stayed out there as opposed coming back home and that is not necessarily an advantage, especially with the surroundings. We all know Buffalo is the better team and it has outgained every opponent in yppl and that is due to the offense that is outperforming its defense, the latter being one of the worst in the league. The Bills are No. 30 in both EPA/Play and Success Rate and they face an offense led by Kirk Cousins that has had a lot of success this season, sitting No. 5 in the league in Dropback Success Rate. The Raiders are in the opposite spot as they following up a tough loss in Kansas City with a blowout loss at New England last week. Road teams coming off OT, on short rest, are just 33% SU and 40% ATS since 2000. Here we play against road teams after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 2022. Play (280) Las Vegas Raiders

Fargo is 23-9-3 ATS in the NFL this season following a 5-2-1 record in Week Five and the Profits continue here! Over the last Five Regular Seasons, he is 270-224-13 (54 percent) and brought home +$23,500 and this is only a small sample of how the NFL has been going back! Over the last 14 seasons, Matt has profited in 10 of those, bringing home a MASSIVE $80,030 in profits! He has FOUR Premium Winners for Sunday with Monday night to follow.

1 Dimer on Sabres +123

1* Free Pick on Chargers/Chiefs: under 41½

This total is built on two offenses with real problems, and the Chargers' issues are the bigger ones.

Los Angeles has lost 5 straight to open the season and is scoring just 16.8 points a game.

Justin Herbert threw for only 121 yards against Denver last week and has turned it over 9 times already, 7 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles.

The protection isn't getting fixed Sunday.

Left tackle Joe Alt is out, guard Kayode Awosika is out, and Tre' Harris is done for the week at receiver.

Herbert won't have time to look downfield against Chris Jones and this Kansas City front.

The Chiefs' side of the total isn't clean either.

Rashee Rice is out with a hamstring and Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve after ankle surgery.

That leaves Xavier Worthy and a group of rookies at receiver.

Travis Kelce has been held to 2 catches in back-to-back games.

So Kansas City will lean on the ground game, and they should.

Kenneth Walker just went for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries against the Raiders and has 537 rushing yards through 4 games.

A run-first Chiefs offense bleeds clock, and that keeps possessions down for both sides.

Fewer possessions, a broken Chargers passing game, and a thin Kansas City receiver room.

That's the formula for a low-scoring divisional game.

I like the Under

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Cody Chovancek -120

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Best Bet on Blackhawks +1½

No analysis provided.

UC DAVIS at SOUTHERN UTAH

Saturday, 8:00 PM ET | 5 UNITS | UC DAVIS -5.5

10-UNIT CFB MAX Bet goes at Noon today. 6-0 ASTS with 10-UNIT MAX Bets and 71% across all sports since July 1, 2025. Get on board now and the comprehensive research will blow more mind and show you clearly why this is John Ryan's best bet of the CFB card this week. Plus, he ranks 5th in CFB right here.

This NCAAF betting algorithm has gone 57-7 SU (89%) and 45-18-1 ATS, good for 71% winning bets over the past 12 seasons.

Required Situations

·      Bet on road favorites that are scoring 35 or more PPG.

·      The current opponent’s defense is allowing 35 or more PPG.

·      The favorite allowed 35 or more points in their previous game.

If the game occurs from week 7 on out to the end of the season, these favorites have gone 38-4 SU (91%) and 31-11 ATS, good for 74% winning bets.

Why UC Davis is the play

·      This game fits the system’s profile: UC Davis is a road favorite with a high-powered offense, a team that can win a track meet on the road.

·      Southern Utah’s defense is the kind the system looks for. When a high-scoring favorite meets a leaky defense, the favorite usually runs away with it.

·      The Aggies allowed 35 or more in their previous game. The system says a team in that spot responds, and the 38-4 SU mark from week 7 on shows how often it does.

P-value in plain English

·      45-18-1 ATS over 12 seasons (p = 0.0009): If this system were just a coin flip, a record this good would show up by luck about 1 time in 1,100. That is about 56 times stronger than the 0.05 bar scientists use to call a result “real.”

·      31-11 ATS from week 7 on (p = 0.003): If this system were just a coin flip, a record this good would show up by luck about 1 time in 350. That is about 17 times stronger than the 0.05 bar scientists use to call a result “real.”

Saturday, 8:00 PM ET | 5 UNITS | UC DAVIS -6.5

Houston Texans +2.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (London, Wembley, 9:30 AM ET)

The number is Jaguars -2.5, total 42.5. Jacksonville is 4-1 and just beat Philadelphia 19-17 in London. Houston is 1-4 and coming off a 26-3 win over Tennessee. The spread opened around 3 and has been bet down to 2.5. A short favorite on a neutral site against a division rival is not a number that needs to be laid. The points are the side.

These two have met 48 times. Houston leads the all-time series 32-16 straight up. Against the spread the picture is tighter but still leans Houston’s way: the Texans are 27-20-1 ATS in the series while Jacksonville is 20-27-1. In the last 10 meetings the Jaguars are 5-5 ATS. Underdogs in this series have been the better side historically, covering at a 29-18-1 clip. Short numbers between these clubs have not been free money for the favorite.

Jacksonville has been the better ATS team this season, but Houston’s defense has been the cleaner side of the ball in the losses. Both teams score in the low-to-mid 20s. A 42.5 in a London morning kickoff does not need to be a shootout. The market has already moved the side toward the visitor. That is the tell.

Bet the short underdog of 3 or fewer points in a neutral-site divisional game.
Underdogs of 3 or fewer points in neutral-site divisional games (since the early 1980s): 27-15 ATS (64.3%). At -110, 27 wins and 15 losses is +10.8 unit$, ROI=25.7%. Houston is getting 2.5. Both teams are AFC South. London is the filter. That is the window.

Bet the underdog of a field goal or less when the favorite is coming off a one-score win.
Underdogs of 3.5 or fewer points when the favorite’s previous game was decided by one score (last 35 years): 41-28 ATS (59.4%). At -110, that is +11.7 unit$, ROI=17.0%. Jacksonville’s last game was 19-17. The short week and the travel are the same for both sides. The points are the argument.

Bet the underdog in this series when the number is 3 or fewer.
Houston as a short underdog of 3 or fewer points against Jacksonville (last 10 seasons): 6-3 ATS (66.7%). At -110, that is +2.7 unit$, ROI=30.0%. The last decade has not been a free ride for Jacksonville laying a short number. The points have been the better side more often than the chalk.

Shop 2.5 or better. If it drops to 2, the edge shrinks. Confirm the starters. A London number and a domestic number are not the same bet if the travel hits one side harder. The house does not care that one club is 4-1.

My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and BYU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This has the potential to be the game of the week but I'm expecting it to be a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair. Notre Dame checks in off a 58-7 dismantling of a bad Stanford team last week. The Irish did whatever they wanted on offense all afternoon long in that no-doubter. They'll obviously be up against a much more difficult challenge on Saturday as they head on the road to take on undefeated BYU. The Cougars have posted back-to-back 'under' results, allowing 10 points against both TCU and Iowa State. This game does represent a step up in class but I think they'll be up for it, noting they've given up a grand total of 67 points in five games this season. Notre Dame's offense gets a lot of the attention but the Irish defense has been dominant this season as well. They've allowed more than 13 points in a game just once through six contests, that coming in a 37-26 win at a good North Carolina team two weeks ago. Even in games where they've essentially called off the dogs and lifted starters, the Irish have still kept opposing offenses at bay. BYU knows its clearest path to pulling off the 'upset' here comes by taking care of the football and grinding it out on offense, effectively shortening proceedings. Take the under (8*).

Our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays/Cleveland Guardians game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tampa Bay will start Nick Martinez -- He had a 2.38 earned run average on the road in the regular season.

The Rays are 58.3% in favor of the UNDER this season coming off of a day off (yesterday's game was postponed).

Cleveland will start Shawn Armstrong -- will probably be followed up by Cantillo or Bibee. Both really solid pitchers.

The UNDER has hit in back-to-back games now and this series is shaping up to be a low scoring one.

We're on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

1* on TCU +4½

Ricky's 1* play on BC.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- BC are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

- Calgary are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. 

- Calgary are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

Free Pick on Oregon State -18 -110

FREE PLAY on TCU/Baylor over 49½