Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Bowling Green -5½ -105

During the past seven days, UCLA has enjoyed a blowout home win against arch-rival USC and scored an upset home victory in overtime against 10th-ranked Illinois on a buzzer-beater layup. Now the Bruins go on the road to face Minnesota in an early start time.

UCLA is 1-5 SU and ATS when playing out of its time zone. The Bruins have lost these five games - all to Big Ten teams - by an average of 17.2 points. The only win and cover came against Penn State, who ranks last in the Big Ten with a 2-15 conference record.

This is an awkward spot for the Bruins, who return home following this game to host Nebraska on Tuesday.

Minnesota is 11-4 at home. The Gophers have pulled off straight-up upset victories at home against Michigan State, Iowa and Indiana. They are well-coached under their first-year head coach Niko Medved.  The Gopher's physical style, slow pace, defensive rebounding and 31st-ranked defense can cause problems for UCLA, especially if the Bruins are flat which I expect.  (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 7-1 on his last eight college basketball plays. Stephen has three premium CBB plays, headed by his CBB Total of the Year, going today in addition to this free selection.) 

Ricky's 1* play on UCF.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Central Florida is 14-6 in its last 20 games.

- Baylor is 1-5 in its last 6 games.

- Baylor is 1-4 in its last 5 games played in February.

Verdict: The value is on the Home favorite.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Valparaiso -4.5

Valparaiso has won its last four games to get to 11-8 in MVC play.  The Beacons are now tied with Illinois State for 5th place in the MVC with one game remaining.  That's big because the top 5 teams all get a bye in the conference tournament.

That's why I'm not concerned about Valparaiso having any sort of letdown here when they travel to face the worst team in the MVC in Evansville.  They should make easy work of the Purple Aces, who are 6-23 pn the season and 2-16 in conference play.

Evansville looks to have quit on the regular season with four straight blowout losses by 26 to Southern Illinois, by 38 to Illinois-Chicago, by 13 to Murray State and by 34 to Belmont.  The Purple Aces have another game against Southern Illinois at home tomorrow to conclude their season, so they'll be far from 'all in' here.

Illinois State plays Belmont tomorrow and will likely be an underdog to the top team in the conference.  A win by the Beacons and a loss by the Redbirds would give them the bye.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

1* FREE INFO PLAY Hornets -7½ -115

In the super featherweight division, where power meets precision, Emanuel Navarrete steps into the ring against Eduardo "Sugar" Nunez this Saturday, February 28, at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona, aiming to unify the WBO and IBF titles, a bout that pits a battle-tested veteran against a knockout machine, highlighting the raw excitement of Mexican boxing rivalries. Navarrete, with a record of 39-2-1 including 32 knockouts, has proven his mettle across multiple weight classes, capturing world titles in super bantamweight, featherweight, and now super featherweight, relying on his awkward style, high volume punching, and relentless pressure that often overwhelms opponents over the distance. At 31 years old, standing 5'7" with a 72-inch reach, the orthodox fighter from Mexico has faced top competition, including notable wins over Isaac Dogboe, Joet Gonzalez, and Oscar Valdez, where his durability shone through, absorbing punishment while outworking foes in grueling exchanges. His most recent outing, a no-contest against Charly Suarez in May 2025 due to an accidental headbutt, still showcased his ability to control the pace, even if it ended prematurely, reminding bettors of his edge in chaotic, high-action fights.

On the other side, Eduardo "Sugar" Nunez enters with a sparkling 29-1 record, boasting 27 knockouts for a staggering 93% stoppage rate, a statistic that underscores his devastating power, particularly in a division known for explosive finishes. The 28-year-old orthodox puncher from Los Mochis, Mexico, measures 5'6" with a 68-inch reach, using his compact frame to deliver thunderous hooks and uppercuts, as evidenced by his 19-fight winning streak, including a unanimous decision over Christopher Diaz in September 2025 to retain his IBF belt. Nunez claimed the vacant IBF title in May 2025 with a decision victory over Masanori Rikiishi in Japan, proving he can go the distance when needed, though his career has largely been defined by early stoppages against lesser opposition, raising questions about his performance against elite, volume-based fighters.

Betting trends in boxing title unification bouts favor the more experienced fighter, even as an underdog, with data showing that in the last decade, challengers with multi-division pedigrees have upset favorites in roughly 35% of such matchups, often capitalizing on stamina and tactical adjustments in later rounds. In super featherweight specifically, where the average fight sees a 65% knockout rate due to the blend of speed and power, underdogs like Navarrete thrive when opponents rely heavily on early finishes, as seen in recent trends where volume punchers have won 60% of decisions in competitive 130-pound clashes. Overall boxing wagering patterns indicate that moneyline favorites in title fights cash at about 70%, but when the line sits around -190 as it does for Nunez, sharp action often flows to the plus-money side, especially in all-Mexican affairs known for their unpredictability and high engagement levels.

Key angles here revolve around stylistic contrasts, with Navarrete's unorthodox approach and superior reach potentially neutralizing Nunez's power, forcing the fight into deeper waters where the veteran's 254 career rounds of experience dwarf Nunez's 126, creating opportunities for a grind-it-out victory. Bettors should note Nunez's lone loss came via decision in 2018, exposing vulnerabilities against durable opponents, while Navarrete's two defeats were narrow decisions early in his career, since overcome by his adaptation in big spots. This matchup screams value on the underdog, particularly given super featherweight's trend toward longer fights in unification scenarios, where over 9.5 rounds has hit in 55% of recent examples.

For the top pick, back Navarrete on the moneyline at +150, a solid spot leveraging his championship pedigree in what figures to be a frenetic, crowd-pleasing war, where his volume and heart could turn the tide against Nunez's one-punch threat. For those chasing higher returns, consider Navarrete by decision around +300, aligning with trends where experienced fighters outlast power punchers in 12-rounders, avoiding the knockout risk while capitalizing on judges' preference for activity. Always wager responsibly, focusing on these angles to maximize edge in a division ripe for upsets.

Our selection is on the Dallas Stars to defeat the Nashville Predators on Saturday at 8:07pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Nashville did beat Chicago in it's first game back from the break. But, it's lost four of it's L5 games played on the road.

The Predators have not done well against the Stars, losing in four of the L14 games played against each other.

Dallas is a terrific 17-7-3 at home this year and those numbers improve to 10-2-2 against opponents within the Western Conference.

The Stars are also 12-4-1 in all games against opponents within the Central Division this year -- 5-0-1 at home.

We're on Dallas .

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