Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Maple Leafs -117

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 9/30:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is still on a 29 of 41 (71%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays despite not winning their MLB play on the Red Sox-Yankees Under last night! Frank maintains a 13 of 21 (62%) MLB run with featured plays — and now he furthers his 8 of 12 (67%) MLB Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* MLB Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year for Wednesday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Ricky's 1* play on BOS.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Sonny Gray is 3-1 in his last 4 starts for the Red Sox.

- The Red Sox have won 5 of the last 9 head to head meetings.

- The Red Sox are 7-5 in their last 12 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road Underdog.

1 Dimer on Islanders vs Maple Leafs under 6 -110

1* Free Pick on Padres -135

Free Play on Red Sox +122

1* Free Pick on Steelers/Browns: under 38½

Neither of these teams has shown they can carry half of this number.

The Steelers are averaging 17.67 points through 3 games this season.

The Browns are at 18 even.

That's under 36 combined before you account for a Thursday night divisional grinder.

Pittsburgh's offense finally woke up Sunday against the Bengals, but that was one game.

Two weeks earlier they scored 3 points at New England.

Now they travel on 4 days' rest behind a rebuilt right side of the line.

Rookie Max Iheanachor just made his first NFL start at right tackle and guard Gennings Dunker is on IR with an MCL sprain.

Steelers back Rico Dowdle hasn't practiced this week either, so Jaylen Warren likely handles the whole load again.

Cleveland's side is worse.

Deshaun Watson was anything but efficient last week, Jerry Jeudy has zero catches in two straight games, and rookie KC Concepcion is averaging just 6.7 yards per reception.

This offense wins ugly.

Last week's 21-18 escape against Carolina needed a pick with 16 seconds left.

The Browns' line is a mess for a short week too.

Center Elgton Jenkins is in concussion protocol and unlikely to clear by Thursday, with Teven Jenkins and Tytus Howard both questionable.

That's a rough spot against T.J.

Watt.

Both defenses are the strength here.

Browns tackle Mason Graham leads all defensive tackles with 4 sacks through 3 games.

Last December these two played a 13-6 game in Cleveland.

Low-ceiling offenses, hurting offensive lines, short prep.

That points one direction.

I like the Under

1* FREE INFO PLAY Steelers vs Browns under 38½ -110

1* Best Bet on Penguins +1½

No analysis provided.

1* Free Sharp Play on Cubs +130

Triple Perfect NFL Thursday night TOP play up. Prime time games 5-0 on. We also have a PERFECT CFB Side and Early Season NHL. WNBA Comp play below

The WNBA Comp play is on Indiana plus the points. Game 3 home favorites in round 1 have not covered off a road dog and spread loss in game 2 and a home win and cover in game 1. The Fever have won 2 of 3 here in Las Vegas this season and should hang around for the cover here. Take the point with Indiana. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take the Over in Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (4 p.m., Saturday, October 3, FS1). We faded Maryland with last week’s free play, and the Terrapins delivered a rough performance in a 54-3 home loss to UCLA. That result has turned up the heat on their head coach, and we expect a better offensive effort this Saturday. The bigger concern remains Maryland’s defense, which surrendered 34 points to Virginia Tech before allowing 54 to UCLA. Nebraska has been piling up points, scoring 49, 56, 34, and 31 in its first four games of 2026. With the Cornhuskers rolling offensively and Maryland looking to respond, we like this matchup to go over the total. Back the Over. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Card, featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC, and soccer. Sign up now and put 54 years of handicapping experience to work for you!

Colts -3

Indy has the cleaner path to controlling this game. Washington is allowing more than 280 passing yards per game, and opposing QB's have consistently found room against a defense that has surrendered 11 TD's through three weeks. The Commanders are also allowing TD's on 75% of opposing red-zone trips. That gives Daniel Jones a favorable matchup, but Jonathan Taylor is where I expect Indy to establish control. Washington is coming off an emotional win behind Marcus Mariota, while the Colts just handled a physical Houston defense. At only a FG, I'll lay it. Back Indy. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the COLTS -3. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

4/5 top plays 350-278 56% +3582 L3 years!** The current run has been strong. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Scotiabank on opening week still thinks it is a Leafs building. The board hung Toronto minus-120 to minus-125 and the Islanders plus-102 to plus-105 like the sweater pays the freight. That is chalk tax, not a price. The last ten meetings do not read the anthem. New York is 8–2 in that stretch. The last three belong to the Islanders. The last time these two shared this ice, March 17, it finished 3–1 New York. Plus money on that side is not a flyer. It is the series tapping the window and asking why you are still laying juice on a logo.

Hockey-Reference keeps the long book so nobody has to guess. Regular season since the Islanders walked into the league: New York 85–72–15 against Toronto, 3.44 goals a night to 3.20. One hundred seventy-two meetings and the visitors still sit on the plus side of the ledger. Playoffs are 9–8 New York. Nobody is cashing a 1978 ticket tonight. What you are cashing is the live chapter. April 9 at UBS: Islanders 5, Leafs 3. January 3: 4–3 in overtime. December 21, 2024, in this building: Islanders 6, Leafs 3. The two Leafs wins in the last ten were 3–1 at home on New Year’s Eve 2024 and 2–1 on the Island the next week. That is a two-game bump. It is not a rewrite. Sharp money lives in the last ten. Square money lives in the sweater.

The math on the last ten is ugly for the home juice:

Last game here:

That is not a track meet. That is a structured club walking into a building that already paid them once this calendar year. Four goals. Road dog. Even money. That is a hold, not a prayer.

The creases matter more than the anthem. Ilya Sorokin is in for New York. Last season against this club he went 2–0 with a 2.01 goals-against and a .907 save percentage, 39 of 43 shots. That is a stopper. Anthony Stolarz is the Toronto start on a back-to-back after Sergei Bobrovsky ate the 3–2 loss to Montreal. Stolarz’s 2025–26 line was 10–10–3, 3.28, .893. That is not a mismatch the home juice explains. That is a road ace against a second night in 24 hours.

The house is still charging you to fade the 2.01. That is how hooks get fat. That is how plus-105 becomes the work.

Line combinations tell you how this actually gets played. Islanders, Barzal out with the knee: Holmstrom–Horvat–Palmieri up top, Maccelli–Ritchie–Schenn in the middle, Pageau with Heineman and Eklund, Cizikas down the list. Pelech–Schaefer and Romanov–Pulock is the pair that wants this game in the corners and off the rush. That is Islanders hockey. Low event. Five-man on the way back. Trap the rush. Make you play 200 feet when you showed up for a pinball machine. Toronto is the other sport. Marchenko–Matthews–Roslovic. McKenna–Tavares–Nylander. Paul and Sissons in the middle six. Rielly and Raddysh, McCabe and Tanev. New coach, new pieces, second game in two nights. They want to stretch it. They want odd-man looks. Nylander already hung two on Montreal and still lost. Public will hammer the home logo because Matthews is in the building and TNT is busy in Philadelphia. Steam on the Leafs is how plus-105 gets to the window looking like a stray. Eight and two is why it is a ticket.

You are not fading the Maple Leafs to miss April. You are fading them to beat a structured club that has taken this matchup eight of the last ten, already won in this building this year, and is running the stopper while Toronto is on night two. 3–2 Islanders cashes. 4–3 cashes. 2–1 New York is the gift. The implied split on a 6-ish total next to a short home favorite is the market saying one club scores three. The series has been saying the visitors get there first. Sit on the number. Do not chase it down to minus money just to sleep. The plus is the reason you are here.

Props in this building follow the same book. Low-event structure. Night two for Toronto. Sorokin in the crease. Barzal out, so Horvat is the New York finish. Matthews still scores on this logo even when the Leafs drop the game. Posted this morning: Matthews anytime around +145 to +150. Horvat +170 to +180. Nylander +185 to +195. Tavares +210. Marchenko +220. Pageau lives out at +500. Nylander over 0.5 goals is the same ticket as the anytime. Shop it before the window walks Horvat.

Horvat is the first Islanders name. Holmstrom–Horvat–Palmieri is the top line. Thirty-one goals in 68 last season. Captain. Bumper on the power play. You are not asking him to win the Hart. You are asking the top New York center to hit the net once in a series they have taken eight of ten. 3–2 Islanders with Horvat on the sheet is how this ticket looks when it cashes.

Matthews is the other net. Hockey-Reference career vs the Islanders: 20 games, 14 goals, 6 assists, 20 points, 87 shots. That is 0.70 goals a night against this sweater.

January 3 at UBS he scored twice and Toronto still lost 4–3 in overtime. December 11, 2023: one goal, 11 shots. January 11, 2024: two goals. The Leafs can lose and Matthews can still pay. That is the whole prop.

Nylander already cashed twice last night in a 3–2 loss to Montreal. He is on the Tavares line with McKenna. Plus-190 after a two-goal night is the market making you pay for Tuesday. If you want the cheaper hold, take Nylander over 2.5 shots and leave the goal. Sorokin is the save ticket. Last two regular-season looks at Toronto: 39 saves on 43 shots. Leafs on a back-to-back will throw pucks. Islanders structure keeps the game in the 2s and 3s. That is a save over, not a goal over. Confirm the number. If they hang 28.5, put it back in your pocket.

Small same-game if you want one ticket that looks like January 3: Horvat anytime plus Matthews anytime. Two finishers. Two different nets. The 8–2 series can still be 3–2 New York with Matthews on the sheet.

Bet the Islanders moneyline as a road underdog of even money to +110 at Toronto. Last 10 meetings: Islanders 8-2 (80%). Last three: New York. Last game in this building: 3–1 Islanders. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=54.5%)

Bet New York on the moneyline in this series when the previous Toronto home meeting was an Islanders win. March 17 here was 3–1. That page is still on the book. 1-0 (100%). (+1.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)

Bet the Islanders moneyline on the road when Sorokin starts against Toronto. Sorokin vs this club last season: 2-0, 2.01 GAA, .907. (+2.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)

Bet Horvat anytime in Islanders–Leafs games when Barzal is out of the lineup. Top-line minutes, faceoffs, net-front. Last season 31 goals in 68. (+1.8 unit$, ROI=22.5%)

Bet Matthews over 0.5 goals vs the Islanders. Career vs NYI: 14 goals in 20 games. Last meeting: 2 goals. (+2.4 unit$, ROI=18.2%)

Bet Sorokin over 24.5 saves on the road vs Toronto. Last two vs this club: 39 of 43. (+2.0 unit$, ROI=24.0%)

Play: Islanders ML. Horvat ATG. Matthews ATG. Sorokin over saves if the number is the regular-season number.

My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Giants enter this game with the better overall record, I don't think there's any question it's the Cardinals that appear to have more upside through three weeks of the season. I really liked the fight Arizona showed in last week's loss but ATS cover on the road against the 49ers. Bettors wanted no part of the Cards after their blowout loss at home against Seattle in Week 2. Keep in mind, the Seahawks had extra time to prepare for that matchup after opening the season on a Wednesday. That's not to mention the fact that the Cards were in a clear letdown after pulling off a road upset of the Chargers in Week 1. The situation on offense is bad enough for the Giants that they elected to sign Vikings cast-off QB J.J. McCarthy. Last week's win over Tennessee had everything to do with the ineptness of the Titans and very little to do with New York's own crisp play. That was an ugly game all around that to put bluntly, someone had to win. While the Giants might have had a chance to compete this year with a healthy Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I fully expect them to quickly fall well back of the pack with Jameis Winston running what already looks like a broken offense (the fact that they're bent on featuring RB Cam Skattebo as the focal point is the biggest red flag). Take Arizona (8*).

Our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche to defeat the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday at 10:07pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

These teams played in round one of the NHL playoffs last year and Colorado won each and every game of that series.

The Avalanche couldn't get past Vegas. But, they were dealing with injuries in that series.

They are back and even better for this season.

Los Angeles lost it's captain, Anze Kopitar due to retirement.

The Kings will also be without Kevin Fiala still for the opening part of this season.

The play is on Colorado at home.

AAA Sports

FREE PLAY on Mystics +3½