09-24-22 |
Oregon v. Washington State +7 |
Top |
44-41 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 38-7 victory against Colorado State as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (2-1) comes off their best game of the season in a 41-20 victory against BYU as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their statement victory against BYU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. First-year head coach Dan Lanning takes over a program that has been upset in four of their last six games when playing on the road as the favorite — and they were laying at least 8.5 points in all four of those upset losses. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lanning tapped former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to be his quarterback from the transfer portal — but the junior has a history of nasty home/road splits in his career. Granted, Nix comes off an efficient 13 of 18 passing effort against BYU where he passed for 222 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In his career playing at home, Nix completes 65% of his passes with 30 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. But when playing on the road, Nix’s completion percentage drops to 55% with 12 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Lanning’s plans to transform the Oregon defense remain a work in progress. After serving as the defensive coordinator at Georgia, Lanning inherited a Ducks defense that lost six of their top eight tacklers from a unit that ranked 72nd in the nation by allowing 385.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Oregon ranks 118th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate this season — and they rank 97th in opponent’s Explosiveness Rate. They are allowing their opponents to average 277.0 passing YPG, ranking 114th in the FBS. BYU passed for 305 yards last week despite missing their top two wide receivers to injury — and the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward comes off his best game for the Cougars last week. The highly-touted transfer from Incarnate Word completed 25 of 35 passes for 292 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory against the Rams. He led the Cougars to a 17-14 upset win against a nationally-ranked Wisconsin team the previous week. Washington State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. But the strength of this team under head coach Jake Dickert has been the play of the defense. The Cougars are allowing just 12.7 Points-Per-Game this season — and they rank 12th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate with a balanced unit that is 18th in the FBS in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate and 17th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. Washington State is holding their opponents to 90.7 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the nation, and they have not allowed a rushing touchdown. They have also registered 14 sacks, the second-most in the nation. They held Colorado State to just 275 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Pac-12 competition.
FINAL TAKE: Washington State will have revenge on their minds after a 38-24 loss in Eugene against the Ducks on November 13th last season. But Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Cougars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Washington State in Pullman. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-22 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
17-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to rebound from a 17-14 loss to New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The low total in this game is daring bettors to take the Over — but let’s not take the sugar. The Steelers managed only 243 total yards last week in the narrow loss to the Patriots — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Pittsburgh offense is held back by an offensive line that is still a work in progress — and they are not getting challenging defenses with their vertical passing game under quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Steelers are scoring only 18.5 Points-Per-Game — and seven of those points came from a pick-six in their opening week upset win at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has only managed two offensive touchdowns from the 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game they are averaging. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a narrow loss by three points or less. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where the Under is a decisive 44-18-1 in their last 63 games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 6 straight Unders in the first month of the season — and they have played 4 straight Unders against fellow AFC North opponents. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 26 of their last 34 games at home Under the Total after losing their last game. And while their first two games of the season have finished Over the Total, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Browns are allowing 27.5 PPG despite holding both opponents to 331.5 total YPG. Cleveland still has an outstanding defense that ranked 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 311.5 total YPG. JaDeveon Clowney will miss this game due to injury but Myles Garrett is expected to play after missing practice on Thursday. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to 54 and 93 rushing yards — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Browns generated 405 yards against the Jets last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Cleveland returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total when playing in Cleveland. It may be scary to play the Under with the number so low — but that is the point. Both teams will likely struggle to score touchdowns in the Red Zone. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-22 |
Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 |
Top |
41-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season after their 42-41 upset loss at home to Charlotte despite being a 20-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (3-0) remained undefeated this year after a 38-26 win against Buffalo as a 12-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were very high for this Georgia State team that returned 15 starters from a group that finished 8-5 including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games to end the season with the team improving when head coach Shawn Elliott turned to former Furman transfer Darren Grainer at quarterback. Elliott has led this young program to three straight bowl games — and this may be his best roster yet in Atlanta. Georgia State does not shy away from difficult schedules — which explains two-thirds of their disappointing start this year. They opened the year in Columbia against South Carolina — and they outgained the Gamecocks but had two of their punts returned for a touchdown in the second half to blow that opportunity to pull the upset. We had them the next week at home against North Carolina — and they had a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Tar Heels before letting the game slip away. They stayed at home to host a Charlotte team that, ironically, was the only team they beat in their first five games last year in a brutal early stretch of games against Army, at North Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Appalachian State. Frankly, the Panthers should have upset Auburn in their building last year. With this showdown against Coastal Carolina on deck, Georgia State was in a letdown sandwich situation where they risked being flat after disappointing results with a game on deck. But the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row at home. Mental mistakes are holding this team back. Too penalties played a role last week as well as a 52-yard fumble recovery that the 49ers returned for a touchdown. Don’t blame the offense too much as they gained 602 total yards and outgained Charlotte by +101 net yards. Grainger completed 22 of 34 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while adding another 54 yards on the ground. The 49ers return Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams from a backfield that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have improved on that mark this season by averaging 231 rushing YPG. They gained 259 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards. And while the defense gave up 401 passing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. Georgia State should be better on that side of the ball with nine of their top 11 tacklers on defense back from last year including three starters in their secondary. Coastal Carolina has looked shaky despite their unbeaten start to the season. They allowed 202 rushing yards on 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry in their opening game against Army — a concerning effort when now playing the Panthers' rushing attack. They were then outgained by Gardner Webb in a 32-27 victory despite being a 32.5-point favorite. Then last week against the Bulls, they entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 19-17 score before recovering a fumble that they returned for a 21-yard touchdown changed the momentum of that game. The Chanticleers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while they forced four turnovers last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last contest. Coastal Carolina is led by their third-year starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is the two-time reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But after 19 starters were back last year for their second-straight 11-win season, the team lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball for this year. On offense, McCall lost 161 receptions accounting for 2645 yards and 24 touchdowns including tight end Isaiak Likely who is developing into the third receiving option already for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chanticleers also lost a 1000-yard rusher in Shermari Jones to graduation and three starters on the offensive line. The defense lost their top-five tacklers — and the linebackers lost five of their top six from last year and seven of the top nine defensive backs. Fifth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell did his best to fortify the roster from the transfer portal but this is a young program as well that just finished a peak cycle. And don’t underestimate the importance of this team only losing six starts to injury last year which helped produce that 11-2 campaign. Now the depth issues for this program get exposed with just seven starters back. They are running the ball in 65% of their snaps — but they only rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in conference play — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: This Georgia State handed the Chanticleers one of their two losses last year — but McCall did miss that game with an injury. But this is a veteran Panthers team with 10 sixth-year super seniors back this year taking advantage of the COVID free-year of eligibility — and they must win this game to save their season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in conference play. Getting Coastal Carolina on a short week will help because their identity is to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-22 |
Vikings v. Eagles OVER 49.5 |
Top |
7-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-0) comes off a 23-7 victory at home against Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) defeated the Lions in Detroit last Sunday by a 38-35 score as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins completed 23 of 32 passes for 277 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the victory against the Packers last week. He seems to be more comfortable under new head coach Kevin O’Connell who was his quarterback coach in Washington in 2017.
|
09-18-22 |
Bears v. Packers UNDER 43 |
Top |
10-27 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — and for Rodgers to continue their touches in the passing game. Expect longer possessions from them tonight as they burn the clock. But the Packers need to play better on defense after they allowed the Vikings to generate 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 395 total yards against them. The Green Bay defense should be a strength after they drafted two of the hot shots from the Georgia defense in the first round of the NFL draft, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quan Walker, to help a group that ranked ninth in the league by allowing 328.2 Yards-Per-Game. The Packers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins passed for 269 yards against them — just under 50 passing YPG above their season average last year. But Green Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Chicago only gained 204 yards last week in their upset win against the 49ers. That mark along with their 3.8 Yards-Per-Play average was the lowest offensive numbers in the league last week. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The second-year quarterback completed 8 of 17 passes for 121 yards dealing with the rainstorm conditions in the south of Chicago during that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. He lacks reliable weapons in the passing game outside of wide receiver Darnell Mooney. But expect more solid defensive efforts from this team moving forward under a defensive head coach in Matt Eberflus who inherited a defense that ranked sixth in the NFL by allowing 316.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Chicago has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 12th when Green Bay won by a 45-30 score at Lambeau Field in a game that Fields was under center for the Bears. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry can use that game tape to slow down Fields this time around. The Packers did respond to their 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opener last year by returning home to Lambeau where they crushed Detroit by a 35-17 score — but he had Adams in that game who caught eight of his nine targets for 121 receiving yards. Rodgers is going to continue to eye-roll at his wide receivers failing him tonight because he wants the world to know that it is not his fault (it never is) — so expect more offensive drives that settle for field goals rather than five touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-18-22 |
Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers |
Top |
17-14 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.
FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-22 |
Fresno State +11.5 v. USC |
Top |
17-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-22 |
UTSA +13 v. Texas |
Top |
20-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.
FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-22 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September. The LA offense was not dynamic last week against the Raiders as they only gained 355 total yards — down more than 35 yards from their season average last year. They did control time of possession for 32:32 minutes in that game which will probably be their formula tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen has been declared out with a hamstring injury which will make Mike Williams the primary option and elevate Joshua Palmer into the starting lineup. Losing Allen is significant since Williams had seven drops last year and Palmer lacks down-the-field speed. Allen is the glue to this group. With the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. Now I do believe Mahomes put himself in a much better position than say, Aaron Rodgers, to be patient and take what the defense will give him this season in the first year without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals. Mahomes had a fantastic statistical afternoon — going 30 of 39 for 360 yards with five touchdown passes — but the drives were not as quick-strike without Hill. And, hey, what do ya know? The defense benefited from the long drives as they held Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense to just 282 total yards. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 24 first downs while having the offense on the field for at least 34 minutes in their last previous game. The Chiefs ranked 8th in the NFL last year by allowing 21.4 Points-Per-Game — and they performed much better when they acquired Melvin Ingram midseason which allowed them to move Chris Jones back to defensive tackle. While Ingram is now gone, they drafted Purdue’s disruptive defensive tackle George Karlaftis in the first round to replace him and keep Jones at his preferred inside position. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Under).
FINAL TAKE: Both games between these two teams had at least 54 combined points scored — so I understand the arguments for the Over. But Staley is leaning-in to light boxes to defend against the pass which begs opposing offenses to run the ball. The Chargers allowed opponents to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry against their light boxes last year. I expect Kansas City to have success on offense — but with long drives and less explosiveness. It does not take much in the game script to get off the pace to finish Over 54 points. And then when you add the short week for both teams and my expectation that Staley calms down on his zeal to go for it on every fourth down, look for a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-22 |
Broncos v. Seahawks +7 |
Top |
16-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-11-22 |
Bucs -1.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
19-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-22 |
North Carolina v. Georgia State +7 |
Top |
35-28 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-22 |
Notre Dame v. Ohio State -13.5 |
Top |
10-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.
FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-22 |
Charlotte v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 59 |
Top |
13-43 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (0-0) returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. FAU (0-0) has 14 starters back as well from their team that finished 5-7 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers need to improve a defensive unit that allowed 34.0 PPG and that ranked 120th in the FBS by giving up 465.0 total YPG — but head coach Will Nealy has reasons for optimism in his fourth year with the program. He brought a wily veteran with plenty of experience in the NFL and the FBS level in Greg Brown to coordinate his defense this season. Brown served as the defensive coordinator for Arizona in 2018 -- and he has over a decade of experience as a defensive coach in the NFL. He has experienced players that he should be able to coach up as eight seniors who played at least 250 snaps last year returned. Injuries did not help Charlotte’s cause last year with the team losing 46 total games to injuries from their starters. Getting Davondre “Tank” Robinson back at strong safety after the former East Carolina transfer suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week One will help. Healy also brought in a four-year player in defensive end Amir Siddiq from Central Michigan to add a pass rush threat to a line that has two starts returning. He joins defensive end Markees Watts to give the team an intriguing pass rush combination who combined for ten sacks last year. The 49errs offense returns Chris Reynolds at quarterback for his sixth year with the program and his fifth as a starter. At this point, we know what we are going to get with the fifth-year starter (with the COVID season where no player lost eligibility). He completed 215 of 337 yards for 2648 yards — but the offense only scored 27.2 PPG which ranked 79th in the nation. Charlotte has palled 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. And in their last 7 games, as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they have played 5 of those games Under the Total. FAU returns eight starters from their offense that only scored 25.4 PPG last year, ranking 84th in the FBS. Former Miami (FL) quarterback N’Kosi Perry returns under center after he completed only 60.7% of his passes for 2771 yards. Perry has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in his career — but his inconsistency is why he lost the starting job with the Hurricanes and eventually transferred to a Group of Five program. He plays behind an offensive line that allowed 35 sacks last year. The Owls' defense gave up 409.2 total YPG last year (90th in the FBS) but they only gave up 25.8 PPG which was tied for 58th in the nation. Third-year head coach Willie Taggart retooled his defense by bringing in Todd Orlando as the new defensive coordinator after previous stints with USC, Texas, and the University of Houston. The veteran has six returning starters plus a slew of transfers led by sophomore linebacker Jamie Pettway from Missouri. FAU held their first eight opponents to only 21.5 PPG last year — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Owls have also played 18 of their last 26 games at home Under the Total with the Total in the 56.5-63 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. FAU dominated Charlotte last year by a 38-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite on the road with that Total set at 58. Healy has probably reminded himself every day in the offseason that his team has a 6-3 record in the last two seasons if they do not allow more than 35 points — but they are 1-8 in their last nine games when their opponent scores more than 35 points. The 49ers need to control the clock to help Reynolds stay within striking distance. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-22 |
Rams v. Bengals +4 |
Top |
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
329 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game was Joe Burrow. The stats say he completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He miraculously avoided defensive tackle, Chris Jones, twice on a crucial play to run for a first down in the second half — part of the 25 yards he added on the ground. But his biggest influence remains in his unwavering belief that he will lead his team to a victory. This is what he did at LSU — and he is already doing it in Cincinnati. It is time to jump on board — and the evidence is staring at us. The Bengals have nine games this season against teams who made the playoffs. They won and covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. They beat and covered the point spread twice against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh — and they beat and covered the point spread on the road against the AFC top-seeded team in Tennessee (that beat Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and these Rams in Los Angeles during the regular season). Furthermore, their two losses to playoff teams were against Green Bay and the 49ers by just a field goal in each occasion. The debate over whether or not this Bengals team is battle-tested is over. And while I was already sold on Burrow, the convincing case made by Cincinnati in their victory against the Chiefs was the play of their defense in holding Patrick Mahomes to just a field goal in the entire second half for the second time this month. The Bengals have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last seven games — those two exceptions were against Kansas City in games where they still pulled off the victory. Cincinnati has now covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games if they are riding a point spread streak of at least three games (they enter the Super Bowl on a 7-0 ATS run). Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cincinnati is a dangerous underdog playing with house money this early in Burrow’s career after entering the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and the rest of this Los Angeles team, on the other hand, have the weight of the world on them to win the Super Bowl. For the second straight season, a team will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl — but I do not see the Rams enjoying the same advantage as the Buccaneers did last season. Los Angeles did not have the home crowd edge in their two games with the 49ers this month — it is highly unlikely they will have an overly partisan crowd advantage now. Staying at home in Los Angeles leaves this Rams roster full of big personalities with plenty of distractions that did not exist in Tampa Bay last year — and they do not have a Tom Brady providing executive leadership either. Playing at home may play into the pressure issues the Rams are already facing. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Regarding Stafford and his ability to handle pressure, if Jaquiski Tartt does not drop the wounded duck of a pass that he threw midway through the fourth quarter, the Niners might/probably win that game. The last time McVay had his team in the Super Bowl, they only scored three points in their 13-3 loss to New England in 2018. Looking at the team trends evidence, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Stafford did pass for 337 yards against San Francisco — but Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Rams played ten games against teams who made the playoffs this season — but they won only five of those contests (after winning three games in the postseason) while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Underdogs have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this postseason starting in the divisional round of the playoffs. While I don’t consider that actionable evidence by itself, I do think it is illustrative that this NFL season has consisted of flawed teams competing for the championship. I don’t think either of these teams would fare well against the recent Super Bowl winners — but maybe that assessment is still under-appreciating what the Bengals have accomplished. Cincinnati has the edge at quarterback. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-22 |
Rams v. Bengals UNDER 50 |
Top |
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
327 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford may get most of the attention for both these teams — but both of these offensive head coaches value their running game to help their underrated defenses. The Bengals controlled the Time of Possession by being on offense for 35:56 minutes against the Chiefs to hold them just under 40 yards below their season Yards-Per-Game average. Cincinnati has held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 21 points. The Bengals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a close win by six points or less — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in seven straight games — and they have payed 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three games in a row. And while their game with Kansas City finished below the 54.5. point total, they have then played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is a true road game for the Bengals playing the Rams in their SoFi Stadium — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has held six of their last eight opponents to no more than 23 points after their victory against the 49ers — and they only gave up only 27 points in those other two contests. The Rams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Los Angeles has won six of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored — and Cincinnati has palled 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-22 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324) in the NFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-7) won their fourth straight game with their 13-10 upset victory at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (14-5) won their fifth game in their last six with their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers grinded out a low-scoring game where they only managed 212 yards while failing to score an offensive touchdown — but they held the Packers to just 263 total yards. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 total yards in their last game. They held Green Bay to just 67 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing at least 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Niners’ improvement on defense corresponds with the decision to move Arik Armstead into the interior of their defensive line. Since Week Nine, San Francisco is second in the NFL to Tampa Bay with 222 pressures on the quarterback. And after allowing 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry in the first eight weeks of the season, the 49ers held their opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry since — and their two playoff opponents have only averaged 3.5 YPC. Armstead thrives against the Rams. In his five games against them, he has 23 tackles, four hits on the quarterback, three sacks, two more tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and two knockdowns on passes. Armstead’s partnership with Nick Bosa allows the Niners to only rush three or four rushers — and this approach stymies Matthew Stafford and the Sean McVay offense. When only rushing three or four defenders, San Francisco still generates pressure in the 30% of their pass rushes in their two games against the Rams this season. Stafford has a 140 Passer Rating when blitzed this season — he chews up a defense with fewer defenders. But the Niners only blitzed 12.5% of the time against Stafford in their first two games. While holding Los Angeles to just 17.0 PPG, they sacked Stafford seven times while inducing four interceptions from three or four-man pressure. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They held the Buccaneers to just 51 rushing yards — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. And while Tom Brady passed for 308 net yards against them last week, they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at last 250 passing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They hold their guests to just 19.7 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams very familiar with the approaches of the two offensive head coaches. This is the third matchup between these two teams in 11 weeks. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-22 |
Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-130 |
39 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-5) won their 11th game in their last 12 contests with their 42-36 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cincinnati (12-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 19-16 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City’s ability to survive their instant-classic with the Bills should only embolden them to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in both their playoff games as a favorite this postseason, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. The Chiefs did surrender 422 yards to Josh Allen and the Bills — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has a significant experience edge with this team playing in their fourth straight AFC Championship Game. It starts with Patrick Mahomes who owns an 8-2 record in the postseason with his two lone losses being to Tom Brady. In his eight playoff games at home, Mahomes is 7-1 with 23 touchdown passes, just one interception, and a Passer Rating of 120.5. In the playoffs this year, Mahomes is completing 76% of his passes for 782 yards with 10 touchdown passes and one interception in his two games. The early-season problems he was encountering with two-high safety looks are long gone. The emergence of two dangerous counter options to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have helped. In the last five games, wide receiver Byron Pringle had 24 receptions from 33 targets for 232 yards with five touchdowns. Running back Jerick McKinnon has 33 touches for 220 yards in the two playoff games. And Mahomes brings two additional important intangibles to these playoff games. First, he is more likely to do damage with his legs. He ran the ball seven times for 69 yards against the Bills. In his ten playoff games, he has 52 rush attempts with a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average with five touchdowns — as opposed to the 3.8 rush attempts he averages per game in the regular season with only eight touchdowns in those 63 games. Second, Mahomes protects the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 192 pass attempts. In his postseason career, he throws an interception once in every 77 throws and he has never fumbled. Kansas City hosts this game at Arrowhead Stadium where they will enjoy a significant home-field edge with a very loud crowd disrupting Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games at home. Cincinnati is happy to be in this position — but they might impact their sense of urgency. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. I love Burrow — but they beat a flat Titans team last week that was the lowest-rated number one or two seed according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati only outgained their opponents in the regular season by +5.1 net Yards-Per-Game. On the road, the Bengals are getting outgained by -18.1 net YPG despite playing only two playoff teams away from home in the regular season (and they got outgained last week to the Titans). Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans with head coach Zac Taylor failing to change schemes to offer him more short or intermediate routes (or a screen pass!) rather than condemning him to yet another coverage sack. Cincinnati does not have a good offensive line. And I think the Chiefs’ have a significant advantage with Andy Reid along with his coordinators Eric Bienemy and Steve Spagnuolo. The Bengals are an organization that is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will not take this Bengals team lightly after getting upset by them in Cincinnati on January 2nd by a 34-31 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead in that game while committing 10 penalties and too many mental errors in that game. Mahomes has won four of his five opportunities in the playoffs to avenge a regular-season loss to their opponent — and Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-22 |
Bills v. Chiefs |
Top |
36-42 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317) in their AFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-5) has won ten of their last eleven games after their 42-21 victory against Pittsburgh last Sunday as an 11-point favorite. Buffalo (12-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 47-17 win against New England as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: After an early-season slide where they lost four of their six games, this Kansas City team was driven to redeem themselves from losing in last year’s Super Bowl are clicking on all cylinders now. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kansas City seized the better record over the Bills in the regular season which allows them to host this crucial showdown. Patrick Mahomes has won six of his seven starts at home at Arrowhead Stadium while averaging 310.3 passing Yards-Per-Game. He has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just one interception in his seven home playoff games while posting a 120.1 Passer Rating. Head coach Andy Reid will give him the green light to run the ball more given the winner-takes-all stakes of this game. The Chiefs’ defense has been tough at home as well as they hold their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game and just 337.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. The Chiefs have also found themselves yet another weapon on offense with the emergence of running back Jerick McKinnon. The former Vikings and Niners player had 18 touches for 143 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers last week while giving Mahomes a nice weapon in the screen passing game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo propped up their stats with some blowout wins (mostly against lesser opponents) this season. But they lost all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — one of the biggest reasons why I side with Mahomes versus Josh Allen tonight. The Bills are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week against the Patriots, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. But now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Buffalo has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Bills’ 38-20 upset victory in Kansas City on October 10th as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chiefs left many points on the field with many mental miscues and a few bad bounces that ruined drives. KC was also missing defensive stars Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward to injury in that game — and they had yet to acquire Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. After adding Ingram to their defensive line, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo moved Jones back to his preferred inside position on the line — and the defense immediately improved. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-22 |
Rams v. Bucs OVER 48 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) in their NFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-5) won their sixth game in their last seven with their 34-11 victory against Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Tampa Bay (14-4) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine with their 31-15 victory against Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams score 27.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored 28 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Over is 9-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory by double-digits. Furthermore, the Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 14 points. And while their win against the Cardinals finished Under the 48.5 point total, Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Rams travel east for this game — the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games on the road. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5. to 49 point range. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog in all situations — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.0 PPG and averaging 409.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams won the first meeting between these two teams on September 26th in a 34-24 victory with the Total set at 55. That was the 5th straight Over between these two teams. The Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-22 |
49ers v. Packers -5.5 |
Top |
13-10 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303) in their NFC Divisional playoff series. THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-4) takes the field again after their 37-30 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 9th. San Francisco (11-7) won their third straight game and fifth of their last six contests with their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in the wild card playoff round last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Even assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo is close to full strength with his nagging thumb and shoulder injuries that have kept him questionable to play all week, this is a very challenging set of circumstances for the 49ers. They have pulled off two straight upset victories in must-win circumstances after reaching the playoffs in Week 18 with their underdog win in Los Angeles against the Rams. This is the third straight game on the road for the Niners — and that is a ton of air travel for a team that has flown back home after their last two wins. Now San Francisco travels across the country east for the second straight week — albeit on a short six-day week as well. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least two straight games on the road. And while San Francisco has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their only three games in the last three seasons under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they had covered the point spread three games in a row. I do worry about an even 100% Garoppolo if asked to keep up with Aaron Rodgers tonight. How will he perform in weather conditions in the single digits and probably below zero with the wind chill? He struggles when put off script — he is completing just 54% of his passes in the second half in playoff games when off script with a low Passer Rating of 49 in those situations. Green Bay is rested and ready for the challenge — and they should be feisty after getting upset by the Lions. Granted, head coach Matt LaFleur rested starters in the second half of that game — but the Packers went into halftime trailing by a 17-13 score despite Rodgers playing the entire first half. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers get some reinforcements back on defense with linebacker Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus and cornerback Jaire Alexander all expected to return to action tonight. The offensive line also gets starters David Bakhtiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Myers back from injury. Rodgers will not mind the frigid temperatures — he has a 29-1 record straight-up when the temperature is no higher than 32 degrees. Against playoff teams this season, Green Bay has a 5-0 record with Rodgers throwing 10 touchdown passes with only one interception. The Packers are 8-0 at home in Lambeau Field this season with a +15.8 net point differential. Rodgers has 20 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games with the offense scoring 30.6 PPG. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to just 16.8 PPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Dealing with the physical style of play that the 49ers bring to the table under Shanahan had been a problem for the Packers — highlighted by their 37-20 loss in the playoffs two years ago when they gave up 285 rushing yards. But that game was in San Francisco — and Green Bay has won both meetings with the Niners since including a 30-28 victory back at Levi’s Stadium on September 26th. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Television Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-22 |
Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 |
Top |
19-16 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302) in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (11-7) advanced from the AFC Wild Card playoffs with their 26-19 win against Las Vegas as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (12-5) returns to action after their 28-25 victory at Houston as an 11-point favorite on January 9th in their final regular-season game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While the Titans’ offense has not been at full-strength often this season, Ryan Tannehill will have all his weapons this afternoon with running back Derrick Henry and wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all expected to play. Tennessee scored 27.3 Points-Per-Game even at less than full strength on offense in their four victories against playoff teams in San Francisco, the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, and Buffalo. The Titans enter the postseason averaging 27.3 PPG in their last three games after scoring 34 and 28 points in their last two contests. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The Titans are on a three-game winning streak — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tannehill completed 23 of 32 passes for 287 yards with four touchdown passes while leading the offense to 425 total yards in their final regular-season game. Tennessee has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Titans have also played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. And while the Texans gained 353 yards against the Tennessee defense, the Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Davis Mills led a Houston offense that passed for 289 yards in that game. While Tennessee has a potent pass rush, their defensive backs do get burned — they rank 25th in the NFL by allowing 245 passing YPG. Here comes perhaps the most dynamic trio of wider receivers in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd of the Bengals. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has passed for 525, 446, and then 244 yards last week in his last three starts (he did not play in the Bengals’ final regular-season game against Cleveland). He has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in these last three starts — and completed at least 70.6% of his passes with at least a 110.4 Passer Rating in each of those three games. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while the Bengals have won four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least four or five of the last six games. But the Cincinnati defense did give up 385 yards to the Raiders last week — and they have played 5 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The injuries to defensive tackles Larry Ogunjobi and Mike Daniels further expose a suspect defense that already ranked just 25th in the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 trips to Nashville to play the Titans. The Over is 12-5-1 in Tennessee’s last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Titans will score their share of points in this game with their weapons back in tow — but Burrow should be able to keep things interesting for the Bengals. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-22 |
Cardinals +4 v. Rams |
Top |
11-34 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152) in their NFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 38-30 upset loss to Seattle as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with their 27-24 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona took a step back in the second half of the season with five losses in their last eight games after an 8-1 start. I thought the Cardinals were overvalued after that fast start (and I am not the biggest Kliff Kingsbury fan) — but they are bit undervalued in this spot. Arizona was hit hard by injuries in the second half of the season including playing three games with quarterback Kyler Murray. The loss of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has hurt the offensive significantly — but it does look like defensive end J.J. Watt will be available to play some snaps tonight. The decline on defense corresponded to Watt’s shoulder injury. The pressure appears to be off this team — and that makes them dangerous. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Cardinals defense should play better after allowing the Seahawks (emboldened in the role of the spoiler in what Pete Carroll described as their “Super Bowl”) to generate 431 yards with a 7.70 Yards-Per-Play average. Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And in their last 38 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP, they have covered the point spread in 27 of these contests. The Cardinals played their best football on the road where they were 8-1 with an average winning margin of +10.8 net Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit holds their home hosts to just 18.9 Points-Per-Game and 319.0 total YPG. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as the underdog. Furthermore, Arizona is 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Cardinals had a 5-2 record against the playoff teams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of these 7 games. Los Angeles only won twice in their seven games against playoff teams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games against playoff teams. The Rams took a 17-3 lead into the first half last week against the 49ers before getting outscored by a 24-7 margin in the second half. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after taking a two-touchdown lead or more in the first half of their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Despite pundits wanting to believe in the high-ceiling of this LA All-Star team, there are significant flaws. Matthew Stafford has demonstrated that perhaps he was not an innocent victim during his time playing for the Detroit Lions after committing nine turnovers in the last four games. He has thrown four pick-sixes this season — yet head coach Sean McVay continues to call plays that put his new shiny toy at quarterback in the best position to succeed. Stafford struggles against pressure up the middle — and that is an area where the return of Watt could make a big difference. The season-ending injury to Robert Woods has played a role in Stafford’s inconsistent play in the second half of the season. He has thrown 11 interceptions in since Week 10 — and his Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game has dropped a full yard to 7.6 YPA over that span. While Stafford was lighting up the league with a Passer Rating of 111.6 in the first nine weeks of the year, he only had a Passer Rating of 93.7 in the final nine weeks. A decline of the running game has not helped with Darrell Henderson going on Injured Reserve. Los Angeles has only ran for 73 and 64 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not rushing for more than 75 yards in two straight games. The defense has underperformed expectations as well. They allowed 449 yards to San Francisco last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where, as Stafford’s wife will attest, they will not necessarily have a vociferous crowd advantage. Arizona fans will travel as Niners fans did last week. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona upset the Rams in LA in the first meeting on October 3rd by a 37-20 score. Los Angeles won the rematch on December 13th in Glendale by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on the road motivated to avenge a loss to their opponent. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-22 |
Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
21-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (9-7-1) has won two games in a row to sneak into the playoffs after their 16-13 victory in overtime at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (12-5) won their ninth game in their last ten in a 28-24 win at Denver as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers made the playoffs on the strength of their defense. They held their last two opponents to just 27 combined points — and three of their last four opponents have not scored more than 14 points. The formula for success tonight for Pittsburgh will be give rookie running back Najee Harris plenty of carries in the attempt to slow this game down to a crawl. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played Pittsburgh has played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after a win on the road against an AFC North opponent. The Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 10 games after winning three of their last four (as they have), the Steelers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. But scoring will be an issue for this Pittsburgh team that averages just 20.2 Points-Per-Game and 315.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Those numbers drop to 19.5 PPG and 312.1 total YPG in their eight games on the road. The Under is a decisive 38-15-1 in their last 54 games on the road — and they have played 29 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. The offense has not picked up during this last season run — they have only scored 19 or fewer points in three of their last four games while not scoring more than 20 points in five of their last seven games. In their last 5 games as a double-digit underdog, the Steelers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chiefs have played their last two games on the road where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. They allowed 6.87 and 8.05 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games on defense — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The defense has been a bright spot for this team in the second half of the season — they have held seven of their last ten opponents to 17 points or less with four settling for single digits. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Kansas City has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when a double-digit favorite. And in their last 5 games in the wild card round of the playoffs, the Chiefs have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City dominated the Steelers in a 36-10 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on December 26th last month. These teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in KC Under the Total despite that game sneaking over the 44 point total. Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 35 points. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-22 |
Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
17-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: New England (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after a 33-24 upset loss at Miami as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (11-6) won their fourth straight game with their 27-10 win against the New York Jets as a 16-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Josh Allen may garner most of the headlines for the Bills — but don’t sleep on the Buffalo defense under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Bills have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 Points-Per-Game and 202.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has allowed just 25 combined points in their last two games. Additionally, the Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. Buffalo hosts the third meeting between these AFC East rivals where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Buffalo has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in January. McDermott and Frazier should have their best game plan yet to challenge Patriots’ rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Throw out the first game between these two teams when Jones only attempted three passes in the wind and cold in Buffalo (although that effort does not inspire confidence). In the rematch on December 26th which the Bills won by a 33-21 score as a 1-point underdog, Jones completed only 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards with two interceptions. The former Alabama quarterback might have hit a wall to close out the season. Since Week 14, Jones only completed 59.9% of his passes as compared to his 67.6% completion percentage for the season. Jones was much more effective when playing at home as well where completed 68.1% of his passes while averaging 249.1 passing Yards-Per-Game with 16 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. His Quarterback Rating at home is 97.5. But on the road, while Jones’ completion percentage only drops to 66.8%, he averages just 194.9 passing YPG with six TD passes and six interceptions — and his QBR falls to 85.4. Jones will not have Isaiah Wynn protecting his blind side either with the left tackle out with a hip and ankle injury. The Patriots were content to grind out lower-scoring games on the road with their defense that allowed only 16.0 PPG and 284.1 total YPG. Bill Belichick has had great success in frustrating Allen in his career. Allen completes only 57.1% of his passes against New England in his career while averaging just 215.9 passing YPG and a QBR of 82.7. Allen has not been great in his career in cold weather despite his college experience at Wyoming and his strong arm. His career completion percentage of 62.3% drops to 50.3% in his five games played in below-freezing temperatures. He averages only 166.6 passing YPG in those games with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: New England has palled 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Buffalo. The temperatures will be in the single digits for this game although the wind will not be nearly the factor that it was in the first game between these teams this season. Weather conditions must be considered in relation to the subsequent Over/Under number — but suffice to say that frigid temperatures harden the football which negatively impacts placekicking and makes it harder to catch the football. In other words, freezing temperatures certainly do not help produce higher-scoring games. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-22 |
Raiders v. Bengals -5.5 |
Top |
19-26 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (10-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-16 loss at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Las Vegas (10-7) won their fourth game in a row with their 35-32 upset victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas benefited from Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley misreading analytics by taking silly chances like going for it on 4th-and-2 on their own 18-yard line to pull the upset last week. Coaching mistakes like that helped the Raiders overcome getting outgained by 94 net yards — but a +2 net turnover margin helped even that game as well. The result had a feel of Las Vegas winning their Super Bowl by giving the home fans their first taste of the playoffs since the club moved from Oakland — made all the sweeter given all the turmoil this team has encountered this season starting with the removal of Jon Gruden as their head coach. An emotional letdown is likely — especially for a team that has pulled off three straight upset wins to reach the playoffs. All four of their games during their current winning streak were decided by just a field goal — and they have benefited from a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession including a 4-0 mark in games that went to overtime. In other words, the Raiders are a few breaks going against them from being an 8-9 (or worse) football team. There were outscored by -3.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and they were outscored by -4.1 PPG when playing on the road. And on the road this teams goes under very challenging circumstances coming from a long overtime game on Sunday Night Football to the opening playoff context on Saturday afternoon — and they have to travel across the country to boot! As it is, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after upsetting a divisional rival as a home underdog. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a close win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in each of their last three games. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Weather will be a factor with temperates expected to drop below freezing with a chance of snow. Quarterback Derek Carr has played five games when the temperature was under at 37 degrees or less: he lost all five games with the Raiders never scoring more than 17 points. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow grew up in Ohio — so he is used to the cold weather. Burrow comes into this game rested after the Bengals clinched home field in the opening round of the playoffs two weeks ago. Their team dominated by second-stringers still were competitive against the Browns — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: These teams played in Las Vegas on November 21st when the Bengals scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 32-13 victory. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — including six of these last nine circumstances. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-22 |
Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama |
Top |
33-18 |
Win
|
100 |
66 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia dominated a stout Wolverines team — they went into the locker room with a 27-3 lead. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after scoring at least 24 points in the first half in their last game. Georgia has one of the best defenses in college football in years — they held their opponents to just 9.6 Points-Per-Game and 259.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season. But the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are tough to beat when they have a strong offensive attack that comes close to matching their elite defense from season to season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread 22 of their last 32 games on the road after passing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. The X-factor for this Bulldogs’ team is having fourth-year junior J.T. Daniels as an option if Georgia falls behind early once again in this rematch of the SEC Championship Game. The former five-star USC recruit is a gunslinger who led the Bulldogs to a 4-0 record in his four starts last year with the team scoring 37.3 PPG. Daniels unlocks the big-play potential of this offense with his strong arm. Head coach Kirby Smart has been reluctant to turn to Daniels since it would throw fuel on the fire of a quarterback controversy — but that concern goes out the window in the final game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 15 games played on a neutral field when favored, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. It is telling that the bookies installed Georgia as the small favorite. Outside the Sagarin Power Ratings (one I don’t pay much attention to, for what that is worth), most of the various power ranking systems conclude that the Bulldogs should be favored (by at least three points). While that does not mean everything to me, it does mean something. Alabama has probably played their best two games of the season in their last two in beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and then overwhelming Cincinnati. Do these two games represent the continued growth and development of this team under head coach Nick Saban? Sure, I give credit to Saban for having his team peaking at the right time. On other hand, college football teams tend to not play their best three games consecutively — so I do expect a performance that comes back down to the season-long numbers that the Crimson Tide demonstrated (that the power rankings systems are evaluating in listing them as a dog now). This Alabama team that survived close scares against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida (and who lost to a backup quarterback leading Texas A&M) may not be able to help themselves from suffering a letdown. As it is, the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 21 points. They raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead against the Bearcats — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their last opponent to no more than three points in the first half of their last game. Alabama dominated Cincinnati in the ground game by rushing for 301 yards and outgaining them by +227 net rushing yards. But the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Alabama dominated the Bearcats by outgaining them by +264 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January (when they tend to be overvalued by the betting public) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances in the National Championship Game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia will have an extra edge on their mind in wanting revenge from their 41-21 upset loss as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Remember, the Bulldogs did not need to win that game — so some of their best plays and concepts (especially on defense) were held back in case of this rematch. Alabama had to leave everything on the table in that game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-22 |
Georgia v. Alabama OVER 51.5 |
Top |
33-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think the most important evidence in assessing the Over/Under proposition for this game is a quote from Nick Saban when assessing the philosophical shift he oversaw at Alabama in the last few seasons. Saban said: "It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren't going to score. You were always going to be in the game. I'm telling you. It ain't that way anymore." When confronted with the must-win game for them in the SEC Championship Game against a Georgia defense some were describing as the best unit in college football in years, Saban took an aggressive stance against Kirby Smart’s defense. The Crimson Tide used pace to their advantage by averaging about one additional play for every two minutes their offense was on the field. While Alabama averaged 2.32 plays per minute during the regular season, they amped that up to 2.75 plays per minute against Georgia. The Tide raced out to a 24-17 lead at halftime which helped to get the Bulldogs out of rhythm — and they then controlled the second half. Saban has commented that recent rule changes make it tough even on the best defenses. Playing at a fast tempo puts defenses on their heels and prevents them from substituting players until there is a dead ball. Alabama is highly likely to deploy this strategy again. Against Cincinnati, the formula for success was running the football since the strength of the Bearcats defense was their secondary. The strength of the Bulldogs defense is their front seven — so going after their secondary makes sense. Quarterback Bryce Young passed for 421 yards against Georgia with a 9.64 Yards-Per-Attempt average with seven passes generating at least 20 yards. Granted, he had the services of junior wide receiver John Metchie who caught six passes in the first half before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Alabama still has an embarrassment of riches in talent at wide receiver — especially with some freshmen who have had more than a month to continue their development. The Crimson Tide was third in the nation by scoring 41.4 Points-Per-Game— they are prepared to survive high-scoring games. It is telling that Alabama has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing in January. They have also played 33 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. Additionally, the Crimson Tide have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least 21 points. And while Alabama flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 218 total yards, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 225 total yards in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Georgia took a page out of the Alabama playbook by using tempo to put the Michigan defense on their heels early and often. the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. Bennett had eight receivers with multiple catches against the Wolverines. This is the approach I expect to see from the Bulldogs in this rematch — and I suspect Smart will think he needs to put 30 points on the scoreboard to win this game even with his elite defense. Georgia averaged 7.73 Yards-Per-Play against Michigan — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have generated 328 and 340 passing yards in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: This is the second-lowest total in an Alabama game all season with the SEC Championship being the only game when the Tide had an Over/Under in the 40s. The Crimson Tide have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I expect both teams to get at least into the mid-20s in what should be a fast-paced game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-22 |
Chargers -2.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
32-35 |
Loss |
-125 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (9-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-13 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (9-7) is on a three-game winning streak after their 23-20 upset win at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders come off two straight upset wins after they beat Denver at home by a 17-13 score as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago. Las Vegas has benefited from some favorable opponent quarterback situations during their winning streak. They beat a Cleveland Browns team ravaged by COVID three weeks ago who had to resort to three-stringer Nick Mullens at quarterback. They faced Broncos’ backup quarterback Drew Lock two weeks ago — and they then got Carson Wentz not at 100% last week after the unvaccinated quarterback returned from his inevitable case of COVID. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least two games in a row. Las Vegas got outgained in yardage by the Colts, 362-326. The Raiders have been fortunate with a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game on the season. They only managed to rush for 85 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has not been an effective team on offense — especially after Jon Gruden was let go by the franchise. The Raiders rank 25th in Third Down Percentage and 29th in Red Zone Scoring. They expect to play tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs who are both listed as questionable — but it remains a question how effective they can be playing through their injuries. Las Vegas is scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have scored more than 17 points just twice in their last eight games. They are 4-4 at home despite getting outscored by -4.4 PPG. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games. Since Week 11, the Chargers lead the NFL in total offense and rank second in scoring. They are scoring 30.3 PPG and averaging 395.3 total YPG in their last three games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in third-down effectiveness — and that includes Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC West opponents — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in January. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against the Raiders.
FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas wants to avenge a 28-14 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles on October 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 14 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-22 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-7) won their third game in their last four contests with a 23-7 win against Houston as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-4) is on a five-game winning streak after their 20-19 win at Baltimore as a 7-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The news I was waiting on has just been confirmed this afternoon — the 49ers will be without left tackle Trent Williams. The future Hall of Famer who has probably been the most effective left tackle in the game this season is out with an elbow injury that left him questionable all week. Not only does that hurt in the protection against Aaron Donald in the San Francisco passing game, but Williams plays a vital role in the Niners’ run-blocking. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting quarterback despite his painful thumb injury — but it remains a question how effective he can be with this injury. Garoppolo playing this game probably speaks more to the readiness of rookie quarterback Trey Lance. While he is uber-athletic, Lance holds on to the ball too long and lacks a firm grasp of playing the position at the NFL level after not playing in almost two years after taking last year off with North Dakota State. As it is, the 49ers have only averaged 20.4 Points-Per-Game in their five divisional matchups this season. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by double-digits. The 49ers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Francisco’s defense has been playing well — they have held their last four opponents to no more than 23 points. They have held their last three opponents to 13.3 PPG and 266.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as a road underdog. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has held their last five opponents to no more than 23 points — and they lead the NFL in sacks which make the loss of Williams on the offensive line for San Francisco a game-changer. the Rams have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 300.3 total YPG. Matthew Stafford completed 26 of 35 passes for 309 yards in their win against the Ravens last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games, Los Angeles has played all 6 games Under the Total. The Rams go back home where they have played a decisive 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be motivated to avenge a 31-10 loss in San Francisco on November 15th — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-22 |
Steelers v. Ravens -3 |
Top |
16-13 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-8) is on a five-game losing streak after their 20-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 26-14 upset win against Cleveland as a 1-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams have slim playoff hopes still alive — the winner of this game needs Indianapolis to get upset by Jacksonville as a two-touchdown underdog. That is not likely to happen, of course. And it sure looked like the Steelers put everything into their Monday night win against the Browns in what was Ben Roethlisberger’s likely last game at home in Heinz Field. An emotional letdown appears imminent. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -9.6 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 29.6 PPG and generate 398.0 total Yards-Per-Game. I have little doubt that head coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play. The Ravens want to end their losing streak — and they would love to end Roethlisberger’s career with a loss. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. It will be Tyler Huntley under center with Lamar Jackson still nursing his ankle injury. The backup has played well in Jackson’s absence — he has completed 67.5% of his 162 passes with 955 passing yards and another 222 rushing yards on a 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry average in six games. Baltimore is 5-3 at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in January.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh won the first game between these two teams by a 20-19 score as a 4-point underdog on December 5th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-22 |
Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
51-26 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 25-22 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (9-7) is on a four-game winning streak after their 20-16 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Injuries and COVID play a defining role in this game. The Eagles have 11 players on the COVID list. Running back Miles Sanders is out with a hand injury — and Philly may only have rookie Kenneth Gainwell healthy and available in their backfield tonight. Right tackle Lane Johnson is dealing with a knee - and Jalen Hurts is less than 100% with an ankle injury. Given that Philadelphia has already clinched a wildcard spot in the NFC playoffs, but they cannot secure a home game next week and have little idea who they will be playing, rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may opt to rest key players including Hurts. As it is, the Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Philadelphia has played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after a win by seven points or less against an NFC East rival — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Eagles have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after winning two in a row against NFC East foes. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. Philadelphia does not have too much luxury to rest all their starters on defense given roster limitations. They have not allowed more than 18 points in five straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 247.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Dallas has some COVID issues themselves most notably with rookie sensation Micah Parsons out for this game. Running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury — and Ezekiel Elliott has been saddled with a knee injury for much of the season. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is out the season with a torn ACL. But Dallas still has plenty to play for despite having clinched the NFC East title when ensures them no worse than the fourth seed. Losses by Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday would put the Cowboys in the position to take the second seed in the NFC playoffs — so head coach Mike McCarthy needs to play for the win tonight. Outside of their 56-point outburst against a Washington team ravaged by COVID and playing after limited practice time, Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five games. The Cowboys have not given up more than 20 points in six of their last eight contests. Dallas has played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 range.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas won the first meeting between these two teams by a 41-21 score. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road to their opponent. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFL Saturday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-03-22 |
Browns v. Steelers -2.5 |
Top |
14-26 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh still has a narrow path to make the playoffs — but the chances are remote so the weight of playoff expectations are not likely to be heavy. Instead, tonight’s game is being viewed as Big Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at home at Heinz Field. It should be a wild and emotional night for the fans and the team that will want to send out the future Hall of Fame a winner. Roethlisberger loves playing against his childhood team. Big Ben has a 24-2-1 against the Browns in his career with 42 touchdown passes and just 22 interceptions. He has a career Passer Rating of 94.2 against the Browns. Even better, the Steelers have a perfect 14-0 record at home against Cleveland under head coach Mike Tomlin. They should play well tonight after getting handled by the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh has covered the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 21 points. The Steelers fell behind early and went into halftime with a 23-0 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game. Pittsburgh had a -2 net turnover margin in that game as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Steelers should also play better defense — they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Pittsburgh does get back T.J. Watt back on defense — and they have a 7-2 straight up record this season when Watt plays at least 60% of the snaps on defense. The Steelers are 5-2 at home this year — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored at home by up to three points. Cleveland may be flat after getting eliminated from the playoff race after yesterday’s results. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road. And while Cleveland has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering two of their last three games. The Browns stay on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the last two weeks of the season. They are also just 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games against AFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 15-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh on October 31st. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-22 |
Vikings v. Packers UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-118 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (12-3) is on a four-game winning streak with their 24-22 victory against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite enjoying a +4 net turnover margin at home last week against the Browns, the Packers only managed to gain 311 yards in their narrow victory against a Cleveland team hit hard by COVID. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 34 passes but for only 202 yards. Green Bay needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Browns to gain 408 total yards in that game. They seized an early lead and took a 21-12 advantage into halftime before only scoring a field goal in the second half. Expect a similar game script against a Vikings’ team playing without Kirk Cousins. Mistakes may be the biggest threat to the Packers tonight — so they are likely to rely heavily on their running game and be satisfied with grinding out a lower-scoring game that re-establishes the confidence of their defense. Green Bay allows only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 338.9 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Lambeau Field. They have played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota will have to rely on backup Sean Mannion at quarterback with Cousins out after a positive COVID test. The former Oregon State has not taken a snap in a regular-season game since 2019. In his career, he has completed only 57.5% of his 74 NFL passes with a mild 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. The Vikings are going to rely heavily on running back Dalvin Cook who was removed from the COVID list and will play tonight. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want to shorten the game by burning time off the clock — and he has had success slowing Rodgers down in his coaching career. Zimmer has led Minnesota to a 6-4-1 record against the Packers in his last 11 games as head coach of the Vikings. Green Bay has only scored more than 23 points against Zimmer’s Minnesota teams twice in their last six encounters. The Packers average 21.6 first downs per game with their offense on the field for 32:34 minutes per game — and the Vikings have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 32 minutes in Time of Possession and 21 first downs per game. Green Bay only averages 0.7 turnovers per game with Rodgers rarely throwing interceptions — and Minnesota has played 6 straight games Under the Total against opponents who do not commit more than 0.75 turnovers per game.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games — and the Packers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-22 |
Eagles v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-16 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-7) has won three in a row with their 34-10 victory against the New York Giants as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (6-9) is on a three-game losing streak after their 56-14 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team is a mess on offense right now after posting their three lowest yardage totals in the last three weeks. They managed only 224 total yards against the Cowboys on December 12th before picking up just 237 yards against the Eagles in a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on December 21st. Washington only gained 257 yards last week in their debacle in Dallas. The Football Team wants to run the ball to set up the pass but they have only gained 148 yards on the ground in their last two games. To compound matters, star running back Antonio Gibson has been declared out for this game due to COVID. The Football Team has played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Washington has also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points to an NFC East foe. At least the Football Team should play better on defense after getting embarrassed last week. Dallas generated 497 yards of offense against them — but Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Philadelphia has not allowed more than 18 points in four straight games. They should stymie the Football Team this afternoon with their stout run defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Philly held the Giants to just 108 passing yards and 192 total yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles held Washington to just 237 total yards two weeks ago — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 350 yards in two straight games. But look for the Philly offense to struggle — they have played 55 of their last 79 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Jalen Hurts is not 100% with an ankle issue that has limited him to just 45 rushing yards on ten carries in his last two games. Hurts is also regressing in the passing game. Since Week 11, he is completing only 58.2% of his passes which is 26th in the NFL during that span. He has thrown only three touchdown passes with four interceptions since Week 11 — and his Passer Rating of 73.7 since that time ranks 24th in the league. He will also be without his best running back in Miles Sanders who is out with a hand injury. The Eagles have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after playing at least three Overs in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Washington is a mess at quarterback with the league seeming to get a book on journeyman quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Head coach Ron Rivera suggested both Heinicke and Kyle Allen could play today. I do expect a spirited effort — and the Football Team has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-22 |
Baylor v. Ole Miss UNDER 59 |
Top |
21-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) won their fourth straight game with their 21-16 upset victory as a 7-point underdog against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 4th. Mississippi (10-2) is on a four-game winning streak with seven victories in their last eight game with their 31-21 upset win at Mississippi State as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th in the Egg Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical play — and we are getting some value with the number with bettors enamored with Lane Kiffin’s offensive acumen. Baylor has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears upset the Cowboys despite only gaining 242 total yards in the game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They forced four turnovers to help them enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor allows only 19.2 PPG — and that number drops to 17.8 PPG they allowed in their six games played away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 16.7 PPG. Mississippi has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels did allow 420 yards to the Bulldogs with 336 of those yards in the air. Ole Miss has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. Despite those numbers, the Rebels’ defense has steadily improved as the season went on under defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. Their bend-but-don’t-break 3-3-5 defense held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Mississippi only allowed three opponents to score more than 26 points against them — and that only happened once after October 9th. The Ole Miss scoring has been down as well — they have not scored more than 31 points in seven straight contests. The Rebels have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total playing away from home when playing with at least two weeks in-between games. Ole Miss has played 4 straight Unders when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Baylor has played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-21 |
Georgia v. Michigan UNDER 46 |
Top |
34-11 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-1) looks to rebound from their 41-24 upset loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan (12-1) won their fifth straight game with their 42-3 victory against Iowa as an 11.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. Alabama only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack — but they shellshocked the Georgia defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I do not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan has thrown the ball more than 38 times twice this season. They want to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines want to run inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 3-47 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Michigan averages 5.3 YPC in their ground game — but Georgia has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 4.75 YPC and they have played 6 straight Unders against opponents who average at least 5.25 YPC. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing games in two straight games. Michigan offense slows down significantly if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team.
But this is also a flawed Georgia offense. They did not score an offensive touchdown against Clemson to open the season. And while they averaged 39.4 PPG for the season, the defenses in the SEC do not appear very stout in hindsight. Alabama was the best defense that the Bulldogs played after that opening game — and after scoring on two of their first three drives, Georgia failed to score on seven of their last nine drives despite trailing in the game. Quarterback Stetson Bennett is not nearly as effective when given a comfortable cushion on the scoreboard. Remove Alabama from consideration and the Michigan defense is better than all the other defenses in the SEC that the Bulldogs have played. They allowed only 16.1 PPG and 316.3 total YPG. Ohio State is the highest-rated scoring and yardage offense in the nation — but they only scored 27 points and ran for 64 yards despite trailing most of that game against the Wolverines. Michigan’s star safety Daxton Hill appears cleared to play tonight after being in the COVID protocols — reports from last night are that he participated in team meetings in Miami after not being with the team most of the week (and the updated CDC guidelines would have required him to be in quarantine if he was still symptomatic and lacked a negative COVID test). The Wolverines have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And while Michigan has scored at least 42 points in three straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia has played 6 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Head coach Kirby Smart will want to run the football, limit mistakes, and lean on his outstanding defense that will be chippy to re-establish themselves after getting embarrassed by Alabama. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field by 7.5 to 10 points. Michigan’s offense can sputter — but they make big plays in their pass rush led by potential top-five pick Aidan Hutchinson. 25* CFB Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-21 |
Cincinnati +14 v. Alabama |
Top |
6-27 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) in the Cotton Bowl college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 35-20 victory against Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama (12-1) won their seventh straight game with a 41-24 victory against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama played the best game of their season to overwhelm the Bulldogs and secure their spot in the playoffs. Even with Nick Saban having four weeks to prepare for this game, a letdown is likely. The Crimson Tide is staring at a Group of Five opponent — even after Saban warning them how good this Bearcats team is. As it is, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they raced out to a 24-17 halftime lead, Alabama has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Generating a +2 net turnover edge in that game played a big role — but the Tide have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover advantage. This remains a team that was just 5-5 ATS against teams playing in bowl games this season. Besides losing to a multi-loss Texas A&M team using a backup quarterback, they survived one-possession games against LSU, Arkansas, Florida and a four-overtime affair with Auburn. Incidentally, they were laying at least 14.5 points as the favorite in all those games. Up until this point, this year’s incarnation is not as dominant as Saban’s National Championship group last season. The offensive line has been given up too many sacks — Bama ranks 67th in Sack Rate allowed and that drops to 75th on passing downs. The running back room is depleted with injures. Drives stall inside the 10-yard line given their ranking 66th in the nation in Goal-to-Go scoring rate. And there are some tough injuries on both sides of the ball with starting cornerback Josh Jobe out with a foot injury and wide receiver John Metchie out the season with the torn ACL he suffered against Georgia. Alabama may not have a reliable second option at receiver (even with all the young talent) to compliment Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. Cincinnati is loaded with talent in their secondary — headlined by three future NFL players in cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant along with safety Bryan Cook. This gives defensive coordinator Mike Tressel some intriguing matchup options. Tressel is one of the best in the business with an established track record as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He can do some things to make sophomore quarterback Bryce Young uncomfortable. Cincinnati has momentum with three straight point spread covers after their comfortable victory against a talented Cougars team. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Despite being on offense for only 19:41 minutes, they averaged 8.89 Yards-Per-Play to generate 400 yards of offense against Houston — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. They held the Cougars to just 86 rushing yards in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. The defense allows only 16.1 PPG. They are led by a four-year starting quarterback in Desmond Ridder who will be drafted into the NFL. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against non-conference opponents, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has proven they can match the physicality of elite programs in their 24-13 victory against Notre Dame this season and their 3-point loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl last year. The Bearcats might have upset the Bulldogs last year if not for the first half injury to left tackle James Hudson — they surrendered six sacks in the second half. The Fighting Irish have only lost twice in South Bend in the last four seasons — to Georgia and this Cincinnati team. The Bearcats will not be intimidated. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-21 |
Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Michigan State |
Top |
21-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) is on a five-game winning streak after their 45-21 victory against Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan State (10-2) won their second game in their last three games with their 30-27 upset win against Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite before the news that quarterback Kenny Pickett would forego this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Spartans are now laying about 3.5 points in most locations — and they will be without their top offensive player in running back Kenneth Walker who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. So, is the value of Pickett worth 8 points plus the loss of Walker? I like Pickett — but I don’t think so. Let’s talk Pitt. They have a capable backup in redshirt junior Nick Patti who has been Pickett’s backup for three seasons. Patti completed 23 of 37 passes substituting for Pickett in September of his freshman year against Delaware in 2017 for 271 yards with two touchdown passes. Patti has completed 12 of 14 passes for 140 yards this season. In his career, Patti has completed 40 of 62 passes for a 64.5% completion percentage, a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt mark, and only one interception. A key tell regarding how Pitt feels about him was on a fourth-and-one in the second half against Virginia when Pickett had to leave the field because of a short-term injury. Rather than kick a field goal or dial up a running play, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple trusted Patti to deliver a pass — and he drew a pass interference penalty for the first down. Patti has practiced with the first-team offense preparing for this game — and that includes Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison who caught 93 balls for 1479 yards and 17 touchdowns. Patti should have success against a Spartans defense that ranked 106th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 17 or more points. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they held the Demon Deacons to just 295 yards on a just 3.47 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Michigan State relied on Walker to take almost 60% of their rushing attempts this season — he averaged a robust 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Freshman Jordan Simmons averages 4.2 YPC — but he is a dropoff. The Spartans will struggle to run the football against this stout Panthers' run defense that ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Pitt has had a top-ten run defense for two straight seasons under head coach Pat Narduzzi — and they have held their last six opponents to under 3.0 YPC. Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has not been as effective when relied on to be the primary source of the offense. He comes off his two worst games this season in a drubbing against Ohio State before their upset win against Penn State. Pro Football Focus gave him grades below 60 for both games — and he had three turnover-worthy plays with zero Big Time Throws in those contests. Sparty relies on big plays — Thorne had a PFF rating of 92.0 on throws of at least air yards. But on throws less than 20 air yards, his PFF grade drops to 72.0 (C- range if graded by a teacher). The Panthers rank a solid 36th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win at home. They are also just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win.
FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Look for the Panthers to be inspired to prove they were more than just a Heisman Trophy Finalist at quarterback — and Narduzzi would love to beat his old team where he served as defensive coordinator for years. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-21 |
Iowa State v. Clemson -1.5 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 5:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) won their fifth straight game to close out the regular season with a 30-0 victory at South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on November 27th. Iowa State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 48-14 victory against TCU as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson took a step back this season due to the drop-off in play at quarterback. Sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei struggled to fill the big shoes left by Trevor Lawrence who left for the NFL after his junior season. Yet the Tigers got their offense going late in the season by scoring at least 30 points in each of their games during their five-game winning streak. Led by the running back duo of Kobe Pace and Will Shipley, Clemson became run-focused who averaged 171 rushing YPG for the season with 598 rushing yards in their last two contests. And the Tigers defense remained elite all season — they allowed only 15.0 Points-Per-Game and 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Clemson defense ranked third in the nation in Rush Success Rate allowed and third in Finishing Drives. They also only allowed eight “explosive” drives that averaged at least 10 Yards-Per-Play in the 154 drives they defended. Head coach Dabo Swinney lost both his coordinators, Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, to head coaching jobs at Virginia and Oklahoma — but he promoted from within with assistants very familiar with the schemes and hungry to make an impression. None of Swinney’s players opted out for this bowl game — this is the first game of the 2021-22 season for this group who should be very motivated. The Tigers should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa State had high expectations but those dreams were snatched from early losses to Iowa and Baylor in their first four games. They crushed the Horned Frogs to end their regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Iowa State offense will be without star running back Breece Hall who has opted out for the NFL draft. The Cyclones are left with just sophomore Jirehl Brock at running back who averaged only 2.1 yards after contact in a disappointing campaign this season. Senior quarterback Brock Purdy was also underwhelming this year — he had 11 turnover-worthy plays and fumbled the football another seven times. He was sacked 21 times behind an offensive line that ranked only 47th in Havoc Rate Allowed — a frightening number when facing this elite Clemson defensive line. The Cyclones defense ranked outside the top-70 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — and they were 74th in Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-21 |
Dolphins -3 v. Saints |
Top |
20-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-7) won their sixth straight game last Sunday in a 31-29 victory against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (7-7) won their second-straight game with their 9-0 upset win at Tampa Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: If the Dallas Cowboys (unfortunate, for us) blowout victory against Washington last night re-affirmed to me, it is to not underestimate the physical, mental, and emotional toll COVID outbreaks have on teams. Not that we should become zombies to simply fade teams dealing with significant outbreaks — and good luck finding matchups where only one team is dealing with that problem — but it is certainly a factor. We hope that Omicron is resulting in milder cases, but we just don’t know yet (the “analytics” are too early to evaluate). And we think professional athletes are in the best position to overcome. But dudes are still getting sick for a few days. A momentum swing like an early interception (as from last night) can play into the game script putting one team on defense for an extended period — and then suddenly a team dealing with the challenges and complications from COVID all week can find themselves on their heels. New Orleans has 20 players out because of COVID including quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. On defense, stalwarts in linebackers Demario Davis and Kaden Ellis along with strong safety Malcolm Jenkins who all played important roles in shutting out Tom Brady last week are now out as well. Head coach Sean Payton is on to his fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The former Notre Dame star is an interesting project — but he left South Bend with a ceiling to his talents and there is a reason that there was little to no consideration of using him at quarterback up until tonight despite all the attrition at this position starting with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston. In the preseason, Book completed 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Payton is an offensive wizard — but Book lacks Hill’s mobility to run the “Cam Newton Carolina” offense and his passing skillset is similar to Siemian’s but without the NFL experience. The Saints have Alvin Kamara back — but the Dolphins are likely to put eight men in the box to slow him down and dare New Orleans to beat them with Book’s arm (with a suspect receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas). Besides all that, the Saints are in a letdown spot after the shocking shutout victory against the Buccaneers. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as an underdog of six or more points against an NFC South rival. The Saints have covered the point spread in their last two games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering point spread expectations in two of their last three games. New Orleans benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints return home where they are just 1-4 this season while getting outscored by 27.8 Points-Per-Game and surrendering 402.0 total Yards-Per-Game. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. The Saints also remain without their starting tackles with Ryan Ramczyk out with COVID and Terron Armstead still dealing with a knee injury. That is not a good sign for a team that ranks second to last in the league over the last six weeks in Expected Points Added per snap on offense. Miami’s defense leads the NFL during that span in Expected Points Allowed per snap. Admittedly, the Dolphins have been feasting on the lesser teams in the league with less than ideal quarterback situations — but this is a team that is confident with a formula for success. And this team is pretty healthy with few COVID cases. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory at home. They had covered the point spread in five straight games before their narrow win over the Jets last week - and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points. Tua Tagovailoa has found a rhythm under center as of late — he has completed 100 of his 129 passes in his last four games for a 77.8% completion percentage with 943 passing yards, seven touchdown passes, and just three interceptions. And while Miami allowed just 228 yards to the Jets last week, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Brian Flores in December. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-21 |
Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 47 |
Top |
14-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-8) lost their second straight game in a 27-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (10-4) won their third straight game with a 21-6 victory in New York against the Giants as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys continue to excel on defense after holding the Giants to just 302 total yards. Dallas forced four turnovers in the game — they lead the NFL with 31 takeaways and 21 interceptions. They have held their last three opponents to just 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 310.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Cowboys have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Dallas has won four of their last six games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six contests. But injuries are slowing this team down on offense. The biggest loss is Tyron Smith at left tackle — he might be the most important player on the team outside of Dak Prescott. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed with injuries this season. The Cowboys do get running back Tony Pollard back tonight but it remains a question how effective he will be with his foot injury. Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored. Washington only managed 237 yards in their loss at Philadelphia. Granted, the Football Team had journeyman Garrett Gilbert under center — but he played well in completing 20 of 31 passes for 194 yards in numbers that looked similar to what Taylor Heinicke was providing them. Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen have been cleared to play — but Heinicke has not practiced all week. Aaron Rodgers is the exception that proves the rule that quarterbacks can avoid practice all week and still have their “A-Game” on Sunday. COVID has limited Washington’s ability to prepare and even game-plan. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner had to tentatively prepare three approaches since he had no idea if it would be Heinicke, Allen, or Gilbert again under center. These two teams played just two weeks ago in a 27-20 victory for the Cowboys in a game where the Football Team only gained 224 yards with both Heinicke and Allen getting snaps. Washington is scoring only 18.3 PPG and averaging 253.o total YPG in their last three games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two in a row. And while the Football Team surrendered 519 yards to the Eagles last week, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. Washington stayed competitive by forcing turnovers and not giving the ball up themselves — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record, the Football Team has played 14 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC East rivals — and Dallas has played 5 straight Unders against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-21 |
Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 45 |
Top |
10-36 |
Loss |
-117 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6-1) has won two of their last three games after a 19-13 win against Tennessee as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (10-4) has won seven straight games after their 34-28 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh eked out that game with the Titans despite only gaining 170 total yards. They have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Steelers enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin in that game which was the third straight game where they won the turnover battle — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after having a +1 or better net turnover margin in at least two straight games. The Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They go back on the road where the Under is 37-14-1 in their last 52 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Patrick Mahomes completed 31 of 47 passes for 410 yards in the win — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Kansas City did allow 192 rushing yards in the game — but they have played 37 of their last 55 games under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Chiefs have played two straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Kansas City defense is playing much better at this part of the season — they have held six of their last seven opponents to no more than 17 points. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit dog. And in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 6 times. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-21 |
Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 |
Top |
33-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 31-14 victory against Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. New England (9-5) had their seven-game winning streak end last Saturday with their 27-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills should build off their momentum from last week as they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. The Over is also 16-7-1 in their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 30.4 Points-Per-Game and averaging 397.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are missing two wide receivers this afternoon with both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley on the COVID list — but they do get Emmanuel Sanders back from a knee injury that kept him out last week and they still have Stefon Diggs. Buffalo will be missing a key piece on defense with linebacker Star Lotulelei for reasons only detailed as “personal.” Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bills have also played 7 straight Overs as an underdog. New England gained 365 yards last week in their loss to the Colts — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones completed 26 of 45 passes for 299 yards with two touchdown passes in a losing effort — a far cry from the mere three passes he threw against the Bills the prior week. Now Jones returns home to Foxboro where he has been more prolific with head coach Bill Belichick seemingly more comfortable to let him air it out. Jones is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 267.1 passing YPG mark with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions and a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in his seven starts at home. In his seven starts on the road, Jones’ completion percentage drops to 66.8% with a 185.4 passing YPG mark with five touchdown passes and five interceptions and a QBR of 84.5. The Patriots are scoring 30.0 PPG and averaging 388.4 total YPG at home. They have played 4 straight Overs when playing a home — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when getting up to three points as an underdog. Running back Damien Harris is expected to play this afternoon with his improving hamstring. New England did give up 226 rushing yards last week to the Colts — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on Monday Night Football back on December 6th in the cold and heavy winds in Buffalo in a game the Patriots won by a 14-6 score. The temperatures in Foxboro today will be in the 40s with the winds in the low-teens — so the offenses should be able to function much better in this rematch. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-21 |
Colts v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
22-16 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (8-6) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 27-17 win against New England as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (10-4) has lost two straight games after their 30-12 upset loss in Detroit as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts only managed 275 yards in their victory against the Patriots last week. Carson Wentz only attempted 12 passes for a mere 57 yards in the win. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Colts did rush for 226 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. It will be difficult for Indy to replicate that performance on the ground tonight with them missing three starting offensive linemen. Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski are on the COVID list while Ryan Kelly is taking personal time after the death of his child. The Indianapolis defense should keep them in this game — they have not allowed more than 17 points in four of their last five games. They did allow 284 passing yards to Mac Jones last week — but they have then played 5 straight Unders after surrendering at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Colts go back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 303.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Arizona has suffered two straight upset losses after getting beat by the LA Rams by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite the previous week. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting upset in two straight games. Furthermore, Arizona has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cardinals are only allowing 20.3 PPG this season — but they are scoring just 22.7 PPG in their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-21 |
49ers v. Titans OVER 44 |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers gained 397 total yards last week in their victory against the Falcons. They have scored at least 30 points in four of their last six games and five of their last eight contests. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Niners have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Even without an injured Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco ran for 162 yards against Atlanta. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is using wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, out of the backfield to great success. In Samuel’s last five games — all victories for the 49ers where they have scored at least 26 points (he did not play in their loss to Seattle on December 5th) — he has run the ball 33 times for 247 yards with six touchdowns including a score in each of those five games. Running back Jeff Wilson ran the ball 21 times for 110 yards with a touchdown in his best game of the season after missing the first half of the year to an injury. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when favored. The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards. Tennessee has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee returns home where the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. The Over is 19-7-1 in the Titans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games in December, Tennessee has played 9 of these games Over the Total. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.
FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-21 |
Seahawks +7 v. Rams |
Top |
10-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: After struggling initially after his faster-than-expected return from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has regained his old form after completing 17 of 28 passes for 260 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Texans. Wilson is completing more than 70% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 109 in his last three starts. He has averaged 246 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with six touchdown passes and just one interception. The Seahawks are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While this game was originally postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Rams’ locker room, it is now Seattle that has been hit harder with positive cases. The Seahawks are without a handful of players including wide receiver Tyler Lockett, running back Alex Collins, cornerback D.J. Reed, and right tackle Brandon Shell. The absence of Lockett hurts but Wilson still has D.J. Metcalf as a prime target. The loss of Collins is not as big a deal with the emergence of running back Rashaad Penny who rushed the ball 16 times for 137 yards last week. The line has moved to account for the players Seattle will not have tonight — but they still have Wilson who usually makes them dangerous underdogs. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle is also a dangerous dog since they protect the football — they are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league. The national punditry seems to believe the Rams have solved all their problems after beating and covering the point spread in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Cardinals last week. We had LA against Arizona in that game — but the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Consistency has not been a hallmark for this team under head coach Sean McVay. And problems remain — a +2 net turnover margin helped them overcome betting outgained by 89 yards to the Cardinals. Arizona generated 447 yards against them — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Los Angeles still has many players out on the COVID list including starting tight end Tyler Higbee — but they do expect to get Von Miller back.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-21 |
Vikings v. Bears +7 |
Top |
17-9 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago has lost seven of their last eight games — but they have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler tonight. The Bears have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago has suffered -4 and -3 net turnover margins in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. They host a Vikings team that is just 2-5 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game at home. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 points. And while Minnesota has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They allowed the Steelers to gain 375 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Vikings have gained 426 and 458 yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on Monday Night Football — and Kirk Cousins has lost nine of his ten starts in prime-time. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Vikings at Soldier Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-21 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 47 |
Top |
9-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Jets to just 256 yards last week in a strong defensive effort. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Saints have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points, New Orleans has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they are allowing only 18.3 PPG and 300.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does a good job devising schemes against Tom Brady — his zone defense limits the effectiveness of the crossing routes that the Buccaneers love and New Orleans has the players to generate an inside pass rush which gets Brady out of his rhythm. The Saints contained Brady to completing just 60.8% of his passes which averaged only 6.05 Yards-Per-Attempt in their two meetings last season. Brady put up better numbers in their first meeting this season on October 31st — but he did throw two interceptions in a 36-27 upset loss when the Bucs were laying 3.5 points. The bigger concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Hill is an effective runner — but he is limited in the passing game. New Orleans operates an offensive akin to the Cam Newton offenses with Carolina — and that does mean longer possessions of offense as they attempt to win the Time of Possession battle. The Saints were on offense for 38:52 minutes against the Jets after rushing for 202 yards — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay did allow 173 rushing yards last week to the Bills — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. Josh Allen led a Bills offense to average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play last week — but Tampa Bay has played 6 straight Unders after a game where they allowed at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against NFL opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. These teams have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing in Tampa Bay. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-21 |
Marshall +5 v. UL-Lafayette |
Top |
21-36 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 53-21 loss to Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog on November 27th. UL-Lafayette (12-1) won the Sun Belt Championship Game with their 24-16 upset win against Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall should play well after their embarrassing loss to the Hilltoppers. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss by 21 or more points against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 28 or more points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Allowing Western Kentucky to score on a 43-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown did not help the Marshall cause under rookie head coach Charlies Huff. Despite their 7-5 record, this team is outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +82.8 net Yards-Per-Game. In their six games away from home, the Thundering Herd outscored their opponents by +16.5 PPG and +62.0 net YPG. Led by second-year freshman quarterback Grant Wells, the Thundering Herd ranks 27th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. UL-Lafayette finally beat their White Whale in Appalachian State in a conference championship game after falling twice against them prior under head coach Billy Napier. Their head coach has since moved on to Gainesville to begin his journey as the head coach for the University of Florida — and he took a handful of assistants with him including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney. Co-offensive coordinator Michael Desormeaux takes over as the interim head coach. I suspect an emotional letdown is coming for a team that appeared disinterested at times after losing their opener to Texas. The following week, they only beat Nicholls State by three points. They later defeated South Alabama, Arkansas State, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe by five points or less despite being a double-digit favorite on each occasion. As it is, the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Louisiana has not committed a turnover in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in at least three straight games. Running back Chris Smith is another key piece to the team that won the conference title who will not be in the Big Easy as he has opted-out of this game. This is a team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: UL-Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-21 |
Patriots v. Colts -2 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory at Houston as a 10-point favorite on December 5th. New England (9-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 14-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South Rival. The Colts generated 389 yards against Texas to outgain them by +248 net yards. Indy has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts' offense has started to crank with Carson Wentz more comfortable running head coach Frank Reich’s offense. Indianapolis has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. Since Week Six, this team leads the NFL in points scored and touchdowns and they are second in rushing yards. They held Houston to just 141 total yards — and they are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts may only have two wins in their seven games against teams with a winning record — but they have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. New England had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not score more than 14 points. Some might be surprised that the red hot Patriots are the underdogs in this game — but it relates to rookie quarterback Mac Jones’ home/road splits this season. At home, Jones is averaging 267.1 passing YPG with 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He has a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in those seven home games. But in his six games on the road, Jones sees his QBR drop to 87.7. Even after tossing out his 2 of 3 passing performance in the wind in Buffalo in his last game, Jones is still only averaging 196 passing YPG in his other five road games with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England ran their way to victory against the Bills in that game as they gained 222 yards on the ground. But the Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in December under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots will be without Damien Harris in this game as he is out with a hamstring injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Colts surge has been led by running back Jonathan Taylor — they are 7-0 straight-up when he rushes for at least 100 yards. The Patriots have a great defense — but they are vulnerable against the run as they allow 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry and rank 18th in the NFL by giving up 114 rushing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-21 |
Toledo v. Middle Tennessee State +10.5 |
Top |
24-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (6-6) became bowl eligible to conclude their regular season with a 27-17 win at FAU as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. Toledo (7-5) is on a three-game winning streak after a 49-14 win against Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee lost four of their first six games before salvaging their season by winning four of their last six games. Head coach Rick Stockstill hit the transfer portal in the offseason to inject more talent into what has been a sleepy program as of late. But his teams typically end strong — the Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. They outscored their last three opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game and they outgained these foes by +94.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Stabilizing play at quarterback has been a season-long journey. Former NC State QB Bailey Hockman left the team in September after having a baby. Redshirt junior QB Chase Cunningham suffered a season-ending leg injury in early November. Freshman QB Nicholas Vattiato started the final four games — and after a rough debut at Western Kentucky, he has since completed 63 of 89 passes for 553 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception in his last three games. He was benched for sophomore Mike Diliello in the game against the Owls — and it was Diliello who led the comeback win by completing 12 of 19 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown pass. Diliello adds mobility to the offense — he ran 12 times for 43 yards with a touchdown. Both QBs hold play this afternoon — and a quarterback competition in a bowl game building into the following season is not a bad thing in these situations. Middle Tennessee is a good defensive team — they rank 24th in the nation by allowing only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Blue Raiders also rank sixth in the nation by averaging +0.92 net turnovers per game. And while fumble luck played a role, the Middle Tennessee defense was fifth in the nation by picking off 16 passes. The Blue Raiders did not force a turnover in their win at FAU — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Toledo failed to meet their high expectations this season after returning 21 starters. They were 0-4 in one-possession games. So while this could have been a 10-win team, how motivated will this group be in Bahamas now? As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. And while the Rockets outgained the Zips by +217 net yards by generating 582 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +225 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards. Toledo has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning at least three games in a row. Toledo is a program that is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee is playing in their first bowl game since 2018 — and they have not won a bowl game since 2017. They are a team looking to build momentum into next season while this is a coda for many of these Rocket players. High winds up to 15 miles per hour will likely contribute to chaos — and chaos tends to help big underdogs. 10* CFB Toledo-Middle Tennessee ESPN Special with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-21 |
Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
34-28 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-4) has won six straight games after their 48-9 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (8-5) won their third game in their last four with their 37-21 win against the New York Giants as a 9.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 7 straight Unders on the road after a double-digit victory. Kansas City has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Chiefs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City may not have pass rusher, Chris Jones, tonight after testing positive for COVID earlier this week. There is an outside chance that Jones can be cleared to play tonight if he is asymptomatic with two negative tests — if so, then the Under looks even better. But the Chiefs defense is playing better for reasons outside of Jones moving back to defensive tackle since the midseason acquisition of defensive end Melvin Ingram. Year after year, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo oversees the steady improvement of his unit as the season moves on. Kansas City has held their last three opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game and 323.0 total Yards-Per-Game. While they will miss Jones, the defense will not fall apart without him if he does not play. Spagnuolo’s group has held their divisional opponents to just 15.5 PPG and 336.3 total YPG in their four games this season. They held the Raiders to just 44 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Justin Herbert completed 23 of 31 passes for 275 yards in the win against the Giants — but the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they have played 19 of their last 25 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Under is also 14-6-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles’ defense has been playing better as of late after holding their last three opponents to 23.7 PPG and 324.7 total YPG — that is -2.1 PPG and -23.7 net YPG below their season averages. They have also held their three divisional games this season to 22.0 PPG and 327.3 YPG. The Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC West foes. The Under is also 20-9-1 in their last 30 games in December. Los Angeles’ offense is not at full strength with their star rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater out tonight and running back Austin Ekeler not at 100% with a high ankle sprain. Ekeler will play but not get a full workload.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-21 |
Rams +3 v. Cardinals |
Top |
30-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-5 victory against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (10-2) has won two games in a row after their 33-22 win at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles dominated the Jaguars last week by outgaining them by +221 net yards. The Rams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. Los Angeles covered the point spread for the first time in their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. What was encouraging from the Jaguars game was that Los Angeles ran the ball 28 times for 128 yards. That was the most rushing attempts and yards for the Rams in four games. They will be without Darrell Henderson tonight with him being on the COVID list — but Sony Michel is capable in taking on the lead back role. Their 6.3 Yards-Per-Play average is the best in the NFL — and they average 6.3 YPP on the road with the offensive execution not dropping off. Los Angeles is 4-2 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Rams are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the NFC — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December. Arizona has won three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games after winning three of their last four games. The Cardinals host this game where they are just 3-2 this season with an average winning margin of +1.4 net Points-Per-Game. They are only scoring 22.6 PPG at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 37-20 score in Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cardinals — and they have covered their last 6 games against them in Arizona. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-21 |
Bears v. Packers UNDER 44 |
Top |
30-45 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-8) lost their sixth contest in their last seven games after their 33-22 loss at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (9-3) won their second game in their last three with a 36-287 upset win against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2-point underdog on November 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Bears' defense for the loss against the Cardinals — despite injuries, they only surrendered 14 first downs and 257 total yards to Arizona. Giving up 192 yards in returns yards on special teams played a big role. That is something that will be easier for Chicago to clean up this week. The Bears have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is holding their last three opponents to just 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game. But the Bears are scoring only 16.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging 298.8 total YPG — and now they go back on the road where those numbers drop to 14.3 PPG and 287.3 total YPG. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Packers gained 399 yards against the Rams defense two weeks ago, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles gained 353 yards against them — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Packers stay at home at Lambeau Field where they are holding their opponents to just 14.4 PPG. And the dynamic offense led by Aaron Rodgers is only scoring 27.8 PPG at home while averaging just 23.6 PPG on the season. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised to see the Packers running the ball a ton tonight as they look to rev up their two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon for the playoffs — and that likely means fewer offensive possessions. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams won are winning 25-40% of their games — and Chicago has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-21 |
Giants +10 v. Chargers |
Top |
21-37 |
Loss |
-122 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-9 loss at Miami as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 41-22 win at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite their losing record, New York is playing much better on defense as of late. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 20 points. The Giants have forced multiple turnovers in five of their last eight games. Since Week Seven, New York is allowing just 16.0 Points-Per-Game and 4.8 Yards-Per-Play which both rank fourth-best in the NFL during that span. Opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 70.7 since Week Seven as well — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Giants should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. With quarterback Daniel Jones still nursing a neck injury, the Giants will have Mike Glennon under center once again this week. Glennon was just OK last week — he completed 23 of 44 passes for 187 yards with an interception. One of the problems for the Giants is that Jones is not putting up much better numbers at this point in his career. Glennon is a capable backup with a completion percentage of 60.8% in 1049 career passing attempts. He has 44 touchdown passes to just 28 interceptions. The Giants have been ravaged with injuries but they are getting healthier with Saquon Barkley getting 17 touches last week in his third week back since missing over a month. It was encouraging for New York to limit the Dolphins to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Los Angeles has been inconsistent this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are also only 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. After taking a 24-0 lead against the Bengals, Los Angeles let the Bengals back in the game with Cincinnati scoring a potential game-tying touchdown before they missed the two-point conversion. The Chargers then recovered a fumble on their 39-yard line which they returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to take a nine-point lead and re-take control of the game. That upset victory was Los Angeles’ first point spread cover in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Chargers return home where they are only 3-3 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home when favored. The Chargers’ challenge is complicated with a COVID outbreak in their locker room. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out and wide receiver Mike Williams is among a handful of players questionable as they look to clear quarantine protocols.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Giants’ defense should keep them in this game against a Chargers’ team that had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before the Bengals only scored 22 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-21 |
Steelers v. Vikings -3 |
Top |
28-36 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-7) has lost two games in a row after their 29-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (6-5-1) snapped a three-game winless streak with a 20-19 upset win against Baltimore as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has a losing record despite outscoring and out-gaining their opponents this season. All seven of their losses have been by one-scoring possession. They have scored at least 26 points in five straight games. This is as near a “gotta have it” game for the Vikings as there will be. They have typically played well under situations like this under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 61 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a division rival. And in their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less, the Vikings have covered the point spread 4 times. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will not have wide receiver Adam Thielen tonight with him being out with an ankle injury — but his productivity outside the Red Zone has declined this season. Dalvin Cook is a game-time decision to return to action earlier than expected from his shoulder injury — but Alexander Mattison is a very good running back if he does play. Cousins is enjoying a great season, albeit under the radar. He is completing 68.4% of his passes for over 3300 yards with 25 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He has not tossed an interception in 246 straight pass attempts. Pittsburgh may be due for an emotional letdown after grinding out a win against their arch-rivals in the Ravens. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Steelers go back on the road for the third time in their last four games — and doing so on a short week will be a challenge. Pittsburgh has surrendered 41 points in each of their last two games away from home — and they are giving up 27.0 PPG and 389.4 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Injuries have made things worse for the Steel Curtain — they are without cornerback Joe Haden and linebacker Robert Spillane. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC foes.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have been a disappointment in losing seven closes games this season — but they have finally completed a difficult stretch with four of their last five games being on the road. The last time they played at home, they upset Green Bay — and this will be an angry and embarrassed team after they shipped the Lions their first win of the year. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-21 |
Patriots v. Bills -2.5 |
Top |
14-10 |
Loss |
-117 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-4) has won two of their last three games after their 31-6 win at New Orleans as a 7-point favorite last week. New England (8-4) won their sixth straight game in a row with their 36-13 victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thought for this situation was to prefer Buffalo but I do like to make final decisions with fresh eyes. The biggest questions for tonight's game are (1) how significant of an impact will the weather have on the game and (2) how significant is the line movement in reaction to the weather? After waiting for the early afternoon forecast to make my final calls, the temperates appear destined to be in the 20s (wind chill in the teens) with winds 25-35 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH. Precipitation does not seem likely by game-time -- so probably not blizzard conditions. I think there is a significant edge at Quarterback tonight. Josh Allen played four years in the cold at Wyoming. His big arm can cut through the wind a bit more -- and he has a few more years of big games under his belt. I like Mac Jones but his arm strength is not one of his best qualities (accuracy, decision-making, intellect) -- and his background is Florida then Alabama. Will these be the coldest temperatures he has ever played in? As it is, the New England offense only averages 309.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road — a drop-off of -46.3 net YPG from their season average. Jones averages only 178 passing YPG in his five starts on the road with his 231 passing yards at Houston being his season-high away from home. The Patriots' recent winning streak has been fueled by them winning the turnover battle in each of those six games. They have forced four turnovers in two straight games while committing just one turnover themselves in those two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in each of their last two games. New England surrendered 270 rushing yards to a Titans team without Derrick Henry last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a victory by 14 or more points. The Bills are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Buffalo gained 361 yards against the Saints last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Bills held New Orleans to just 190 total yards — and they are 9-1-2 ATS after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo held the Saints to just 44 rushing yards as well — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots will lean heavily on running the football on the road and in these weather conditions — but the Bills are fourth in the NFL by allowing just 3.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Buffalo returns home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 Points-Per-Game and outgains them by +135.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-21 |
Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 48 |
Top |
9-22 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-5) has won three of their last four games after their 28-13 upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (7-4) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Under is also 15-5-1 in Denver’s last 21 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos have held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points. They are third in the league by allowing just 17.8 Points-Per-Game. They also have the third-best opposing quarterback Passer Rating of 82.7 in the NFL. They go on the road tonight where they are holding their home hosts to just 17.2 PPG and 312.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. But the Broncos' offense is limited with Teddy Bridgewater under center. They are scoring just 20.7 PPG — and they have scored under 20 points in five of their last eight games. Bridgewater completed 11 of 18 passes for 129 yards last week. While a quarterback that is allergic to taking chances is a good fit with a defense-first team, his unwillingness to throw the ball down the field makes it difficult to stay competitive with a team that averages 25.5 PPG. Denver has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after a bye week. The Chiefs host this game where they are only scoring a surprising 21.5 PPG this season. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Mahomes has been in a mini-slump this season after being frustrated with the two-high safety cover-2 looks he is facing. But it is not just that — defenses have finally realized that blitzing Mahomes is too dangerous a proposition since he can evade the rush and torch the defense with Travis Kelce or Tyreeke Hill getting a few more seconds to evade fewer defenders. It is the cover-2 combined with the standard pass rush which is frustrating Mahomes. The Chiefs have not scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games and five of their last seven. But Kansas City is on a winning streak due to the improved play of their defense. Acquiring linebacker defensive end Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh allowed Chris Jones to move back inside to defensive tackle where he prefers — and he has thrived. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 10.0 PPG and just 292.0 total YPG. Don’t count out a defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo to improve as the season moves on. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 14-5-1 in Denver’s last 20 games against AFC West foes — and the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-21 |
Chargers +3 v. Bengals |
Top |
41-22 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 28-13 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last week. Cincinnati (7-4) has won two in a row after their 41-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles outgained the Broncos last week by +55 net yards after holding Denver to just 302 yards. Denver benefited from a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown to flip the score. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles is playing close games — two of their losses were by just three points apiece. They are outgaining their opponents by +33.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Cincinnati dominated their arch-rivals in the Steelers last week which may set them up for an emotional letdown. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while Cincinnati has scored at least 73 combined points in their last two weeks, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. Led by Joe Mixon, the Bengals rushed for 198 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chargers give up a lot of rushing yards — but that is because they are focusing on defending the pass. Los Angeles only allows 331.2 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Cincinnati is only outgaining their opponents by +7.3 net YPG despite their 7-4 record — and they are getting outgained when playing at home. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Chargers: 3-2 on the road). Four of Cincinnati’s wins have come against Detroit, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh twice. They are just 3-4 against the rest of their competition. And Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times in the last four weeks — the second-most of all quarterbacks during that span. Now here comes the Chargers’ Joey Bosa.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 35-16-4 ATS in their last 55 road games as an underdog. 25* AFC Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-21 |
Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 |
Top |
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (11-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-16 win against UL-Monroe as a 21.5-point favorite on Saturday. Appalachian State (10-2) has won six straight games after their 27-3 win against Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This will be head coach Billy Napier’s last game with Louisiana before he takes on his new job as head coach of the Florida Gators. Napier has been pulling double-duty this week getting his new staff together in Gainesville while beginning his recruiting for Florida — and that may scare off some bettors. His coordinators are still on the case for this game — and Napier is quite familiar with Appalachian State. I see things in the opposite way — this contest offers Napier and his players the culmination of a long journey where beating the Mountaineers in the championship game and winning a Sun Belt championship is the final goal for this program. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost twice to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game under Napier before not getting the chance to play for the title last season against Coastal Carolina due to a COVID outbreak canceling the game. UL-Louisiana has appeared to lack motivation at times this season. They have five wins against inferior opponents by just one scoring possession — however, they also crushed Appalachian State and Liberty in statement victories by 28 points apiece. Being listed as the underdog should stick anger them — and they have pulled the upset in five of their last seven games in the role of the underdog under Napier. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They get to host this game where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game and a ++143.8 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Ragin’ Cajuns hold their guest to just 14.0 PPG and 301.5 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 10 points in their last game against a conference opponent. They held the Eagles to just 194 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. And in their last 12 games after winning at least five straight games, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. The Mountaineers play on the road for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette finally defeated Appalachian State last December in a regular-season game to avenge those two previous losses in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in 2018 and 2019. The Ragin’ Cajuns followed that up with a 41-13 throttling of the Mountaineers at home on October 12th this season in a game where they outgained them by +244 yards despite being a +4.5-point underdog. Appalachian State has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss. The dog has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in this series. The Louisiana players love Napier — I think they play hard for him today in a program-defining moment. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-03-21 |
Western Kentucky v. UTSA +3.5 |
Top |
41-49 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303) in Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-1) comes off their first loss of the season last week in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won seven straight games after their 53-21 win at Marshall as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA had little at stake last week after clinching the opportunity to host this conference championship game the previous week with a 34-31 victory against UAB. While a perfect record would be nice for head coach Jeff Traylor, the most important goals are winning the first conference championship in program history and then winning the first bowl game in conference history. After committing some early turnovers in bad weather in Denton last week, Traylor pulled his starters with the writing on the wall for that game (against a Mean Green team motivated to become bowl eligible) to rest for this showdown. UTSA should respond with a strong effort. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UTSA has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss to a conference rival. Now the Roadrunners return home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.2 net Points-Per-Game. They outgain their visitors by +162.0 net Yards-Per-Game because of their defense that holds these guests to just 13.0 PPG and 239.5 total YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Roadrunners bring a balanced offense into this game led by quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere Mitchell. Harris is a dual-threat who is completing 66.3% of his passes — and he has 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. McCormick has rushed for more than 1000 yards in two straight seasons. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road in conference play. With their new Air Raid offense this season led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are second in the nation by scoring 43.2 PPG. But UTSA has seen this offense already in their 52-46 victory at Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on October 9th. The Hilltoppers’ defense is a concern as they are tied for 87th in the nation by allowing 407.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Their ability to stop the pass is the biggest concern as they rank 113th in the nation by allowing 261.9 passing YPG. Harris completed 28 of 38 passes for 349 yards with six touchdown passes in the first meeting. Western Kentucky is surviving high-scoring games with their last four contests seeing at least 63 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is the trendy pick in this game because of the revenge angle and that they have lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and UTSA has won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But don’t underestimate the confidence of an older team in their ability to win close games — especially when they are playing at home (and at night). The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-21 |
Browns +4.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
10-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has not looked very good in the last two weeks. They were flat against the winless Lions last week despite wanting to make a statement after their embarrassing 45-7 loss in New England the prior week. But injuries have played a role in the Browns’ subpar play — and they are getting healthy again. Nick Chubb returned to action last week to run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. Now both All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt are expected to play tonight. Cleveland is a different team when their potent ground game is at full strength. The Browns have scored 41 or more points twice this season. They should raise their level of play in this AFC North showdown as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Cleveland held the Lions to only 245 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been in a funk — but he loves playing against the Ravens. In his six career starts against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards four times — and he has averaged 297 passing YPG in those six games. The rushing attack of the Browns travels — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And while Baltimore gave up 353 yards to Bears’ defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens return home after a two-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens have failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-21 |
California +6.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
14-42 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). THE SITUATION: California (4-6) has won three of their last four games with their 41-11 victory at Stanford last week as a 2.5-point favorite. UCLA (7-4) has won two in a row with their 62-33 win at USC as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal is playing their best football of the season — and they should build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Cal got their senior quarterback Chase Garbers back last week after he was injured for their previous game against Arizona when the team was hit hard by COVID in a 10-3 upset loss. The Bears had over 20 players out for that game with the Wildcats. Now with four wins and with their postponed game with USC on deck next week, bowl eligibility remains a real possibility. Garbers completed 17 of 26 passes for 246 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards on the ground. Garbers has posted a QBR of 82 or better in each of his last three starts with seven touchdown passes and one interception. Cal gained 636 yards in the win against the Cardinal — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears gained 325 of those yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Cal’s defense has played better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG and 330.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Cal has been a very tough underdog over the years as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as a dog. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. UCLA comes off the rivalry game win against USC — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Bruins have won and covered the point spread as a favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16 of 22 passes for 349 yards in the win last week — but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the play of the defense has regressed as of late. In their last three games, UCLA has allowed 32.3 PPG and 437.3 total YPG. The Bruins rank just 112th in the nation in Opponent’s Rush Success Rate. UCLA hosts this game at home in the Rose Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Five of Cal’s six losses have been by one scoring possession. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. UCLA’s motivation for this game is questionable after their rivalry game and a bowl game clinched but with no chance of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-21 |
Wake Forest v. Boston College +5.5 |
Top |
41-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). THE SITUATION: Boston College (6-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 26-23 upset loss to Florida State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Wake Forest (9-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 48-27 loss at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Boston College fell behind in the first half and went into the locker room with a 19-3 deficit before rallying to pull within three points with 10 minutes left to go in the game. But the Eagles could not score again to get upset by the Seminoles. That was the first loss for this team with a healthy Phil Jurkovec under center. Boston College is significantly better when he is leading the offense. Jurkovec averages 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game while generating 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry when rushing out of the backfield. The Eagles should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after by three points or less. Boston College gets to host this game in the cold weather where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when getting up to 7 points as a home dog. The Boston College defense will play a big role in this showdown in slowing down the Demon Deacons’ quarterback Sam Hartman. The Eagles rank 26th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate — and they limit their opponents to just 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, ranking 33rd in the nation. Boston College holds their guests to just 19.2 PPG and 312.2 total YPG at home. Wake Forest has the pressure of needing to win this game to clinch their spot in the ACC Championship Game against Pittsburgh next week. While Hartman has led a powerful offense, it is the subpar play of the Demon Deacons’ defense that has exposed them against Clemson and North Carolina earlier this month. The Tigers rank just 117th in the nation in Pass Success Rate but were able to torch the Wake Forest defense for 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game and 543 total yards of offense. Clemson averaged 7.33 Yards-Per-Play last week — and the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Hartman tried to keep up as he completed 27 of 43 passes for 312 yards — but Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Hartman has been pressing with the defense being so easy to score on — he has six interceptions in his last three games. The Demon Deacons allow 30.8 PPG and 449.8 total YPG — and it is even worse away from home as they surrender 43.2 PPG and 540.8 total YPG in their five road games. Predictably, Wake Forest is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Besides the opportunity to play the role of spoiler to Wake Forest’s ACC title chances, Boston College can avenge their 27-24 loss at home to the Demon Deacons on September 28th, 2019 in the last meeting between these two teams. Hartman quarterbacking in the cold Boston weather against an Eagles team that will score points may be too much to ask for the NFL prospect. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-21 |
Washington State v. Washington UNDER 45 |
Top |
40-13 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-5) has won two of their last three games with their 44-19 win against Arizona as a 15-point favorite last Friday. Washington (4-7) has lost three in a row after a 20-17 upset loss as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This year’s version of the Apple Cup will feature two defensive coordinators serving as interim head coaches for programs working through a tumultuous season. Given some weather conditions that I will detail in the Final Take, I expect both teams to embrace a conservative defensive mentality in this rivalry game. Washington State has run the ball more since Jake Dickert was given the head coaching duties. In his four games, the Cougars had their first and third-highest rushing games in terms of attempts with 42 carries against Arizona State and 36 carries last week against the Wildcats — and this is despite them ranking 71st in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. As a defensive coach, Dickert appreciates the benefits running the ball does for his defense. They have held three of these four opponents to no more than 21 points after allowing 24 or more points in six of their first seven games. When now facing an outstanding Huskies secondary filled with future NFL players who rank fifth in the nation in Opposing Pass Success Rate and third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading, Washington State will likely run the ball plenty tonight — and burn time off the clock limited offensive possessions along the way. The Cougars did gain 482 yards last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Washington State has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cougars score only 23.0 PPG and average 355.3 total YPG on the road. Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by a touchdown or less against Pac-12 rivals. The Huskies held the Buffaloes to 183 yards in the loss last week. The Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Washington allows only 21.1 PPG and 325.9 total YPG on the season. But despite quarterback Dylan Morris passing for 387 yards, his two interceptions played a large role in their scoring just 17 points. The Huskies average just 1.4 Yards-Per-Carry. With this being the team’s final game, interim head coach Bob Gregory may give playing time to freshman QB Sam Huard. Either way, expect more long drives from an offense that ranks outside the top-115 in Standard Down Explosiveness, Rushing Explosiveness, and Passing Explosiveness. Washington is scoring only 21.0 PPG and averaging 286.0 total YPG in their last three games. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: There is a 50% chance for rain in Seattle for this game which will likely hurt the passing game for both teams. I suspect both defensive coaches will not take as many chances throwing the ball in the rain. And if you watched Washington play in Ann Arbor in the rain against Michigan earlier this year, you witnessed how ineffective Morris and their receivers were dealing with a wet football. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings at Washington Under the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-21 |
Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 |
Top |
35-13 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). THE SITUATION: East Carolina (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 38-35 win at Navy as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (11-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 48-14 victory against SMU as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats made a statement with their emphatic 34-point victory against a quality Mustangs team that entered that game with an 8-2 record. Cincinnati now finds themselves in the College Football Playoff top-four rankings this week — and they are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week against Houston. Alas, the Bearcats walk into this emotional letdown and a look-ahead spot against the Pirates. Now road favorites still manage to cover all the time in these situations — so the issue becomes how vulnerable is Cincinnati in this spot and how dangerous of an underdog is East Carolina. On Issue One, the Bearcats are vulnerable to letdowns. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. And while they have gained at least 506 yards in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight contests. They held the Mustangs pass offense to just 66 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Bearcats have experienced scares from some middle-of-the-road conference opponents. They only beat Navy on the road by a touchdown. They defeated Tulsa at home by eight points. While they are scoring 40.0 PPG and averaging 429.7 total YPG, those numbers drop by a touchdown and more than 60 total YPG to 33.0 PPG and 368.4 total YPG marks when playing on the road. They also allow just under 26 more YPG away from home. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. On Issue Two, East Carolina does have the pedigree of a dangerous but under-appreciated opponent. After a 3-6 campaign last year, head coach Mike Houston had 20 starters return for what is likely his best roster in his three years with the program. They are playing their best football at this point of the season having outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 PPG and outgaining them by +208.5 net YPG. After opening the season with understandable losses at Appalachian State and home to South Carolina, they have pulled off three upset victories against Memphis, Marshall, and Tulane. They lost on the road to Houston in overtime. They enter this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They generated 563 yards against the Midshipmen last week while outgaining them by +181 net yards. The Pirates are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. Quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 27 of 32 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes in the win last week. He leads an offense scoring 37.7 PPG and generating 505.5 total YPG in their last three games. He can keep East Carolina competitive in this contest with his deep balls — he leads an offense that ranks 18th in the nation in Explosiveness. The Bearcats have played only two teams ranked in the top-25 in Offensive Explosiveness — and they rank 71st in the Pass Defense Explosiveness. The Pirates are 4-1 at home at Dowdy-Ficken Stadium where they outscore their opponents by +16.0 PPG. East Carolina has an underrated defense that holds their visitors to just 18.8 PPG -- and they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG and 297.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: East Carolina had 21 first-time starters last season, the fifth-most in the nation. The fruits of that commitment to go young are coming into place now. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 conference games. Lastly, East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Yes, this is a dangerous team. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-21 |
Bills v. Saints UNDER 47 |
Top |
31-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Unders after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints’ defense is allowing only 21.8 PPG — but they need to bounce-back after getting embarrassed by Philadelphia. They allowed 383 total yards to the Eagles with 242 of them coming on the ground last week. New Orleans has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards. Turnovers are hurting this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. That explains why the Saints have allowed 30.0 PPG in those three games despite only giving up 336.7 total YPG during that span. New Orleans has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing the turnover battle in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total played on a Thursday. Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5. to 49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-21 |
Bears v. Lions UNDER 42 |
Top |
16-14 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-7) lost their fifth straight game with a 16-13 loss to Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (0-9-1) comes off a 13-10 loss at Cleveland as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. And in their last 24 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Justin Fields was knocked out of the Ravens game with a rib injury that will keep him out this afternoon. Andy Dalton will be under center for this game after completing less than 50% of his passes (11 of 23) against Baltimore. Chicago is scoring only 16.3 PPG and averaging 287.9 total Yards-Per-Game under offensive “guru” May Nagy — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG and 269.2 total YPG in their five games on the road. They have not scored more than 27 points all season while scoring 22 or fewer points in eight of their ten games and 20 points or less in seven of their games. The Bears did gain 353 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Chicago is they did hold Baltimore to only 299 total yards. They did not allow more than 17 points for the fourth time this season. Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least two in a row. The Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. It looks like it will be Jared Goff under center for this one with him being listed as questionable with the oblique injury that kept him out against the Browns. Backup quarterback Tim Boyle completed 15 of 23 passes but for only 77 yards with two interceptions against Cleveland in demonstrating that he is not as effective as even a limited Goff. Detroit is scoring only 16.0 PPG — and they score just 16.8 PPG at home while averaging 292.8 total YPG. The Lions have not topped 19 points in nine straight games — and they are averaging a mere 10.7 PPG and 259.7 total YPG in their last three contests. Detroit has scored 26 points in their last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Lions’ defense has played better lately by only allowing 29 combined points in their last two contests. They did allow 184 rushing yards to the Browns last week but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Total is low for this one — but it simply would not be a shock if one (or both) of these teams failed to score double-digits especially after Nagy canceled team meetings on Tuesday amidst the rumors he was going to be fired after this game (although the Lions offense is not in better shape even with full meetings on Tuesday). 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-21 |
Giants v. Bucs UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
10-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. They were only on offense for 20:52 minutes. The Buccaneers only ran the ball 13 times for 53 yards — and they only had 14 rushes for 71 yards in their loss to the Saints. Look for Tampa Bay to get back to running the football. They had averaged 29.3 rushing attempts in their four games which were all victories. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay has also played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Running the ball will also help the Buccaneers defense that has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight — but asking the defense to be on the field five to ten minutes less than they were last week will help. So will returning home help where the Buccaneers hold their guests to just 18.5 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Giants managed only 247 total yards in the win last week with Daniel Jones completing 15 of 20 passes but for only 110 yards. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. And while the Giants surrendered 403 yards to the Raiders, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 straight games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against NFC foes. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-21 |
Steelers v. Chargers -3.5 |
Top |
37-41 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: I consider the Steelers a bit overrated — and they are ravaged with injuries for this one. Big Ben Roethlisberger will play after being removed from the COVID list — but he has not practiced in a couple of weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger is not a gym rat — but I still expect him to be rusty after being in quarantine. Left guard Kevin Dotson is out with a foot injury. The Pittsburgh defense is without their three best players in linebacker T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and cornerback Joe Haden. Those losses on defense are devastating. As it is, Pittsburgh is being outscored and outgained this season. They are getting outgained by -46.7 net Yards-Per-Game on the road. The Steelers winning record is due to their 5-0-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. Mike Tomlin’s team could easily be 3-6 instead of 5-3-1. Their record is also skewed when considering that six of their nine games have been at home at Heinz Field. They are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. Pittsburgh did game 387 yards last week against the Lions — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last game Under the Total including failing to cover the point spread in four of their five games this season after an Under. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after an upset loss at home as the favorite. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles gave up 278 passing yards to the Vikings last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. The good news for the Chargers is that they expect defensive end Joey Bosa to be back on the field after being on the COVID list. On their home field, Los Angeles is scoring 27.2 PPG while averaging 380.6 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents. Against a depleted Steelers’ defense, Los Angeles should reach their home scoring average in the high-20s — and that is a mark that will be hard for Pittsburgh to match. The Steelers have not scored more than 17 points in five of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-21 |
UAB v. UTSA UNDER 54 |
Top |
31-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 21-14 upset win at Marshall as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. UTSA (10-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 27-13 win against Southern Mississippi as a 32.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers controlled the clock by being on offense for 37:43 minutes last week which helped them hold the Thundering Herd to just 269 total yards to help them pull off the upset. That will be the formula for success again today for head coach Bill Clark. UAB has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. UAB leads Conference USA by allowing only 320.2 total YPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play. In their six road games, the Blazers are allowing just 16.2 PPG and 280.7 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total -- and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Under is 15-5-1 in UAB’s last 21 games as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. UTSA has not allowed more than 17 points in three of their last four games. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Roadrunners held the Golden Eagles to just 189 yards of offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The UTSA defense has been particularly tough at home where they hold their guests to just 9.4 PPG and 192.6 total YPG. The Roadrunners have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. UTSA is fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 2.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. They will make thinks difficult on the Blazers who only average 85th in the nation by averaging 213 passing YPG — and UAB is just 56th in Passing Success Rate. The Roadrunners have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: UTSA clinches a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game with a win — but UAB is still alive to defend their conference title just one game behind the Roadrunners in the West Division. The Blazers defeated UTSA last year by a 21-13 score in Birmingham as a 21.5-point favorite on October 3rd. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in UTSA’s last 9 games against teams with winning records. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-21 |
Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 |
Top |
25-0 |
Loss |
-130 |
51 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have lost two of their last three games after catching an angry Cowboys team that was coming off their worst game of the season in an upset loss at home to Denver. Despite Atlanta being hit hard by injuries, rookie head coach Arthur Smith has done a good job with this team. After losing their first two games of the season by 49 combined points, the Falcons won four of their next six games with each of those contests decided by one-scoring possession. If there was a silver lining from Sunday’s blowout loss, it was that Matt Ryan left the game in the third quarter. The veteran quarterback will be rested and ready for this game on a short week. Atlanta went into halftime trailing by a 36-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns at halftime in their last game. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a -2 net turnover margin did not help matters — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Falcons only gained 214 total yards in the loss — but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Cowboys gained 431 yards against them last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New England is peaking in terms of market value after their 38-point win against the Browns — but they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Additionally, New England is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now they go back on the road where they are 4-0 — but they are gaining just 309.3 total YPG in those contests. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has played much better than expected under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — but New England has supported him with a quality rushing attack. The Patriots rushed for 184 yards last week after gaining 151 yards on the ground in their previous game at Carolina. The Patriots are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: After playing their last two games on the road, Atlanta returns home which gives them a situational edge in this matchup. The concept of selling high and buying low when handicapping football gets thrown around too loosely in my opinion — but this is a genuine opportunity to take advantage of that axiom fading a Patriots team that opened around a 4-point favorite but has been bet up to a touchdown or so favorite on the road on a short week. The market is overreacting to the blowout results both teams incurred last week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-21 |
Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5 |
Top |
37-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 54-30 win against Kent State as a 2.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ball State (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-29 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chippewas generated 505 yards against the Golden Flashes last week with quarterback Daniel Richardson completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards with four touchdown passes. But Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Chippewas are scoring 32.8 PPG and averaging 447.5 total YPG — but those numbers drop by -6.0 PPG and -39.7 YPG in their five games on the road. Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed 475 yards to the Huskies last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite returning 20 starters from the squad that won the Mid-American Championship last season, head coach Mike Neu has found things more difficult this year back to a full conference schedule after the COVID-shortened campaign last season. After scoring 34.2 PPG last year, the Cardinals are scoring only 25.6 PPG this year — that number drops to 22.2 PPG at home in their four games. They rank 106th in the nation by averaging 347.2 total YPG — and they averaging -19.2 fewer YPG at home. Third-year starting quarterback Drew Plitt leads an offense that is averaging just 206.0 passing YPG this season, ranking 96th in the nation. He has passed for less than 200 yards in two straight games as Neo pivots the offense around freshman running back Carson Steele. Ball State has rushed for at least 200 yards in three of their last four games. Continuing this ground attack will not exploit the vulnerable Chippewas ‘ pass defense that ranks 122nd in the nation by allowing 280.5 passing YPG. Central Michigan does defend the run well after returning ten starters from a defense that ranked ninth in the nation last year by holding their opponents to 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. The Chippewas are holding conference opponents to 3.8 YPC this year. The high-risk/high-reward aggressive tactics under head coach Jim McElwain is giving up too many big plays in the passing game — but Central Michigan does rank in the top ten in the nation in Tackles for Loss fueled by their 27 sacks. The Cardinals rushed for 246 yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ball State returns home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Weather looks to play a role tonight with rain expected with winds in the 10-15 miles-per-hour range. The kicking and passing games may be negatively impacted. The Chippewas have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in that 56.5 to 63 range. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-21 |
Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +6 |
Top |
21-22 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 34-26 upset loss to Ohio as a 6-point favorite last Tuesday. Western Michigan (6-4) ended their two-game losing streak with a 45-40 win against Akron as a 26-point favorite last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan still has plenty to play for this season even if their 3-3 conference record likely has them out of contention to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Reaching eight wins would be a milestone for this program as would winning the Michigan MAC Title involving the four directional teams from the state in the conference. Reaching a fourth bowl in the last six seasons under head coach Chris Creighton would cement his legacy. The Eagles have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Ben Bryant complete 41 of 57 passes for 354 yards in the losing effort to the Bobcats. The graduate transfer quarterback from Cincinnati is completing 69.7% of his passes and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games. He leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation by scoring 34.0 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after passing for at least 280 yards. They return home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 PPG. Eastern Michigan rarely gets soundly defeated — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. Western Michigan has been inconsistent under head coach Tim Lester. They are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival. The defensive play of the Broncos has been holding them back. They are tied for 91st in the nation by allowing 30.0 PPG — and they surrender 34.8 PPG and 413.3. total YPG in their four games on the road. Western Michigan has allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after giving up at least 31 points in their last two contests. The offense has taken a step back this year as well. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby led the team to score 41.7 PPG last season — but the loss of two players to the NFL from that group may be playing a role in their averaging 11.0 fewer PPG this season. On the road, the Broncos are scoring just 24.3 PPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan was a favorite to win the MAC West Title — so their 3-3 record in the MAC has been another disappointment under Lester. It could be worse — the Broncos have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Eastern Michigan has played an incredible 45 of their last 58 games within one scoring possession. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games this year continuing a string of tough luck where they have won only four of their last fourteen games decided by eight points or less. Eastern Michigan has upset Miami (OH) and Toledo this year making it 15 upset wins under Creighton in the last six seasons. Getting 5.5 to 6 or so points offers a nice cushion in a game where the Eagles should be in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-21 |
Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ defense held the Titans to just 194 total yards but were stagnant on offense. Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Rams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored. San Francisco only gained 337 yards last week in their loss to a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did complete 28 of 40 passes for 326 yards in the losing effort — but the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total hosting the Rams. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have seen 49 or fewer combined points in three of their four games at home in Levi Stadium. They have not scored more than 21 points in five of their eight games. The Rams have seen 51 or fewer points in three of their four games on the road. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 24 or fewer points. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-21 |
Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 51.5 |
Top |
41-14 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-4) has won two games in a row with their 13-7 victory against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 23-16 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Kansas City has also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 14 points. The Chiefs have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played four straight Unders. Kansas City has then played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders — and they have played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. How long with the Patrick Mahomes slump continue? The Chiefs have only scored 36 combined points in their last three games. Facing the familiar Raiders’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered. Kansas City scored 35 and 32 points in their two games against Las Vegas last season. Mahomes has 15 touchdown passes in his six previous games against the Raiders. And while the Chiefs defense has only allowed 17 PPG in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Derek Carr completed 30 of 46 passes for 296 yards in the loss while leading the Raiders offense to 403 total yards. Las Vegas has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards run their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Raiders have averaged 423.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Las Vegas returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and the Over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 home games when they are the underdog. The Over is also 8-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas should be able to move the football against this Chiefs defense that allows 396.6 total YPG on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City sees 54.3 combined points scored when playing on the road while Las Vegas averages 50.6 combined points when playing at home. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Chiefs. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-21 |
Utah State v. San Jose State UNDER 57.5 |
Top |
48-17 |
Loss |
-107 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). THE SITUATION: Utah State (7-2) has won four games in a row after their 35-13 win at New Mexico State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Jose State (5-5) had their two-game winning streak end with their 27-24 loss at Nevada as a 12.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Quarterback Lucas Bonner completed 23 of 32 passes for 349 yards in the victory against the Aggies — but Utah State has played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Bonner passed for 406 yards in their previous game against Hawai’i -- but the Aggies have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games. Utah State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 61 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Aggies have played 40 of these games Under the Total. San Jose State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Spartans have also played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Jose State has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 6 straight home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Spartans scoring numbers on the season are lower than expected because quarterback Nick Starkel has missed a handful of games. He was back last week to help the offense pass for 288 yards — but San Jose State has played 8 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Spartans return home where they hold their opponents to just 21.3 PPG — and the 319.0 total Yards-Per-Game they give up to their guests is -36.0 net YPG below their season average. San Jose State has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record Utah State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (221) and the San Jose State Spartans (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-21 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor +7 |
Top |
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). THE SITUATION: Baylor (7-2) looks to rebound from a 30-28 upset loss at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 52-21 victory against Texas Tech as a 19.5-point favorite as a 19.5-point favorite on October 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners are right in the heart of the College Football Playoff conversation with their unbeaten record — but this will be the most difficult game they have played so far this year when considering that their eight FBS opponents have combined for a 28-45 record (not including their victory against Western Carolina from the FCS). Their best win up to this point is probably their six-point win against a 6-3 Kansas State team. Five of their victories have been by a touchdown or less. Even with this soft schedule, the play of the Oklahoma defense once again appears to be a liability. They allow 24.2 Points-Per-Game and 383.9 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking 60th and 63rd in the nation. Injuries have not helped matters — but this remains a defense that is allowing 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt from opposing quarterbacks while ranking 113th in the nation by giving up 272.9 passing YPG. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch lost two cornerbacks to the NFL from last year — and sophomore cornerback Woodi Washington has been out with an injury — but these are ominous numbers heading into the most difficult part of their schedule. They do come off a bye week — but they are just 6-6 ATS in the 12 games under Lincoln Riley with an extra week to prepare. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. And while freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed for over 400 yards against the Red Raiders to lead an offense that generated 541 yards, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 375 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma has scored at least 37 points in seven straight games after their narrow 16-13 escape at home against West Virginia in early September — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in five straight games. Baylor may have been caught looking ahead to this showdown last week in their upset loss to a Horned Frogs team motivated to play for head coach Gary Patterson who resigned after their previous game. The Bears can remove the bad taste in their mouth from that disappointing performance by stunning the undefeated Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a Big 12 rival where they were laying at least six points. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Bears need to tighten up on defense after allowing TCU gain 570 yards. Baylor has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards. Head coach Dave Aranda has talent on defense with ten starters back from the COVID-marred rookie campaign with the team last year. The Bears had not allowed 30 points before last week with only Iowa State scoring more than 24 points against them. Baylor has a potent rushing attack that averages 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks seventh in the nation by generating 230.9 rushing YPG. By not asking junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon to do too much, the Bears are averaging a healthy 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Aranda schemed a defense last year that limited the Sooners to just 269 total yards and 10 points in the first half in a 27-14 Oklahoma victory in Norman. Now the Bears host Oklahoma in Norman where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Sooners. The inexperience of Williams at quarterback may lead to some nervy moments for the National Championship aspirations of Oklahoma. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-21 |
Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 49 |
Top |
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (5-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 31-17 upset win against Colorado State as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (5-4) has won two in a row with their 40-14 upset win at Fresno State as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys had their second-highest scoring game this season with the 31 points they put on the scoreboard against the Rams. They are still averaging just 23.0 PPG this season — and they have scored 18.0 PPG in their last three games even after their 31 points last week. Wyoming has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Cowboys generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Under is a decisive 40-18-1 in their last 59 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The strength of Wyoming is their defense as they hold their opponents to 21.3 PPG. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 22 or fewer points — and their last three opponents averaged just 19.3 PPG. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Wyoming is fourth in the nation by allowing only 157.9 passing YPG — and they rank 22nd in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate so the low counting pass yards they allow is not purely a function of slower-paced games. The Cowboys do run the ball 63% of the time — so the clock will keep running tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl has moved to Levi Williams as his starting quarterback in the last two games — but he is completing only 55% of his passes. Wyoming goes on the road where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 road games as an underdog. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 24 points in eight of their last nine games — and they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Boise State gained 470 yards against the Cowboys — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This is not a good matchup for the Broncos since they are so dependent on the arm of quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Boise State only averages 110 rushing YPG with their rushers averaging 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Not only are they 117th in rushing YPG but they are 114th in Rush Success Rate. They host this game where they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total on the blue turf against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Expect plenty of stalled drives tonight as Wyoming and Boise State rank 20th and 29th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives. The last four meetings between these two teams have averaged only 37 combined points. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against each other — and there have been 6 straight Unders between these two teams when playing in Boise. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (119) and the Boise State Broncos (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-21 |
Titans v. Rams OVER 52.5 |
Top |
28-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tennessee has scored at least 24 points in seven straight games — but they have given up at least 27 points five times already this season. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Titans’ last 31 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Tennessee offense will be learning to live life without running back Derrick Henry for an extended period given his foot injury. The reports this week indicate that Adrian Peterson looked good in practice after he was signed to take on the rushing duties — he should be at least serviceable. I do expect the Titans to lean more on their passing attack. Wide receiver Julio Jones is healthy again — and the reports I am seeing indicate that wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to play tonight despite being limited in practice this week. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is 6-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 games after a straight-up win. Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 32 passes for 305 yards with three touchdown passes in the win against the Texans last week — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. But Los Angeles gave up 279 passing yards to Houston last week — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. The Rams are allowing 23.5 PPG and a 412.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Their run defense ranks 18th in DVOA — so I do think Tennessee will still be able to run the ball even without Henry.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the Titans’ last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-21 |
Falcons v. Saints UNDER 43 |
Top |
27-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 19-13 upset loss to Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-2) has won three games in a row after their 36-27 upset win against Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are missing key players on offense. For the Falcons, it is wide receiver Calvin Ridley who is out indefinitely for personal reasons. With Julio Jones gone from the team, quarterback Matt Ryan is suddenly without reliable weapons at wide receiver. They gained only 213 yards last week against the Panthers. Atlanta has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss to an NFC South rival. To compound matters for the Falcons’ offense, Ryan is dealing with a hand injury after getting cleated last week. He has stitches in his hand from that mishap which may impact his throwing. The Atlanta defense is improving under defensive coordinator Dean Pees. They have held their last three opponents to 22.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Falcons have also not allowed an opposing rusher to gain at least 100 yards on the ground in 23 straight games — so Alvin Kamara may not be able to carry the Saints offense with his rushing. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The New Orleans offense will be quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian given the season-ending knee injury to Jameis Winston. The Saints’ offense has already been limited this season with Michael Thomas on the shelf — and the wide receiver will not be returning this season after a mishap in his recovery. New Orleans is averaging 25.1 PPG but they rank 29th in the NFL by averaging only 305.9 total YPG and second-to-last with a 180.9 passing YPG mark. They are last in the league with just 15 Big Plays on offense this year. The Saints defense surrendered 421 yards last week to the Buccaneers — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans holds their opponents to just 18.3 PPG and 344.3 total YPG. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-21 |
Wake Forest v. North Carolina -2 |
Top |
55-58 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-34 loss at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 45-7 victory at home against Duke as a 16-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Demon Deacons raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead last week against the Blue Devils — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after taking at least a 24 point lead at halftime of their last game. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. Quarterback Sam Hartman had another big game as he completed 24 of 37 passes for 402 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that generated 677 total yards. But Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Turnover luck has helped the Demon Deacons cause as they have not committed more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in five straight games. Wake Forest has benefited from a soft schedule up to this point. Only Virginia and Army are FBS opponents that they have beaten that currently have winning records. While the Demon Deacons score plenty of points, that has overshadowed their suspect play on defense. They rank 99th in the FBS by allowing 421.5 total YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.3 PPG and 474.4 total YPG. In their three road games, they have allowed their home hosts to score 36.7 PPG and average 538.3 total YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass (with their home games at Truist Field being played on field turf). North Carolina may possess the most potent offense that they placed all season. The Tar Heels are 12th in the nation by averaging 482.8 total YPG. Sam Howell completed 24 of 31 passes for 341 yards and added another 101 yards on the ground in their loss in South Bend. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. The Tar Heels did outgain the Fighting Irish last week by 39 yards by generating 564 yards of offense. They should be able to move the ball at will against the Demon Deacons. This team began the season with National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Virginia Tech changed their realistic expectations. Ruining Wake Forest’s perfect season would give this group something to hang their hats on. North Carolina has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Tar Heels return home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. They average 45.2 PPG and 512.5 total YPG at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest could not stop Howell and the Tar Heels’ offense last season — they lost in Chapel Hill by a 59-53 score. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at North Carolina. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-21 |
Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
30-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) comes off a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indianapolis (3-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 34-31 upset loss in overtime to Tennessee on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bengals to just 318 total yards in the upset win. New York has played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Mike White surprised in his first career start by completing 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes. The former Western Kentucky quarterback lived off short passes against the Bengals -- running back Michael Carter had 14 targets with nine receptions and running back Ty Johnson had another five catches from six targets out of the backfield. Jamison Crowder also had eight catches for 84 yards coming mostly from short routes. With White under center again this week since Zach Wilson is still injured, the Colts’ defense will adjust to this short game and dare White to throw the ball vertically down the field — and the Jets will once again be without their best deep threat in Corey Davis. Indianapolis has the fifth-best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they lead the league in Run Defense DVOA. The Jets are 28th in DVOA Offense with their best work coming from their rushing attack that ranks 19th in DVOA — but running the ball against the Colts will be problematic as they hold their guests to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. New York scores only 16.3 PPG and averages 235.6 total YPG this season — and those numbers drop to 11.8 PPG and 235.6 total YPG in their four road games. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New York has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. And while rookie head coach Robert Saleh’s team has attempted 42 and 49 passes in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. Saleh is a defensive head coach after serving for years as the defensive coordinator in San Francisco — he does not want this game on the road to get into a shootout. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Colts have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Indy offense will be without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton once again as he goes through the concussion protocol. In their 3-point loss to the Titans, the Colts gained only 307 total yards. They only average 346.3 total YPG in their four games at home. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 4 straight Unders as a favorite laying more than 10 points in all situations. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the Indianapolis Colts (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-21 |
Miami-OH v. Ohio UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
33-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (3-4) has won two in a row after their 24-17 upset win at Ball State as a 3.5-point underdog on October 23rd. Ohio (1-7) has lost three in a row after their 34-27 loss to Kent State as a 5-point underdog on October 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks held the Cardinals to just 329 total yards in that victory. Miami (OH) has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory against a conference rival. Miami did get quarterback Brett Gabbert back last week after the third-year sophomore quarterback missed the previous two games to injury. While he completed 20 of 24 passes in the win, he is still only completing 58.8% of his passes this season. The RedHawks are scoring only 21.1 PPG — and that average drops to just 17.2 PPG along with a 319.2 total YPG mark in their three previous road games with Gabbert the starter in two of those games. Gabbert is an upgrade over fourth-year sophomore A.J. Mayer — but Brett is not the prospect that his brother, Blaine, was. Miami (OH) has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The RedHawks have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored. Ohio has palled 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. And while the Bobcats generated 457 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This has been a lost season for the Bobcats after the surprise retirement of head coach Frank Solich in July after serving as the head coach for the program for 16 years. Offensive coordinator Tim Albin inked a four-year deal to become the new head coach — but this team is scoring only 21.1 PPG while averaging just 360.1 total YPG. Ohio wants to run the football — they average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Sophomore Kurtis Rourke, another younger brother of a quarterback with higher stature as he follows Nathan’s career as the Bobcats’ signal-caller, is overseeing an offense that averages just 166.8 passing YPG, 115th in the nation. Rourke will probably struggle against this RedHawks team that ranks 15th in the nation in Havoc Rate. Ohio stays at home where they have played13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: The weather will be chilly in Athens tonight with temperates dropping into the 30s as the game goes on. Cold weather does not help the passing game — especially when the players are not the best in the world in adapting to harder footballs. Ohio has played 4 straight Unders against Mid-American Conference opponents — and the Under is 10-3-1 in Miami (OH)’s last 14 games in November. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) (305) and the Ohio Bobcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-21 |
Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 51 |
Top |
20-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-1) has won five in a row after their 35-29 win at New England in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Minnesota (3-3) has won three of their last four games after their 34-28 win at Carolina in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even if it is Cooper Rush at quarterback tonight, I like the Over. Dak Prescott will go through his pre-game gyration workout to see if he thinks he can give it a go. I suspect he will. But, I am handicapping this game on the assumption that Rush will make his first career NFL start. The former Central Michigan star was a bit of a gunslinger in college — and he has had two weeks to prepare for this game getting all the first-team reps. And offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has had the extra week to prepare a specific game plan to take advantage of his skillset. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Cowboys’ last 18 games after a bye week. Rush has the benefit of throwing to the terrific Dallas wide receivers with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and the newly healthy Michael Gallup. Left tackle Tyron Smith returns to anchor the offensive line. And the Cowboys still have running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard leading an attack that is generating 164 rushing YPG. The Vikings are allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank just 24th in the league in run defense according to the DVOA metrics used by the Football Outsiders. So while I don’t expect Dallas to score at least 35 points for the fifth time this season if Rush is under center, I do think he can get them in the high-20s. As it is, the Cowboys have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Minnesota should score their share of points against this Cowboys defense that is allowing 24.3 PPG with three of their opponents scoring at least 28 points. Kirk Cousins is enjoying a big season that is going mostly under the radar. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes only two interceptions. He completed 33 of 48 passes against the Panthers for 373 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the offense to 571 total yards. The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. Minnesota has played 5 straight games Over the Total after their bye week.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Cowboys have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total against the NFC. Dallas has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. I did note that while the news of Prescott’s potential absence moved the Cowboys from being a small favorite to a 3-point dog, the Total barely moved. With either Prescott or Rush at QB, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Dallas Cowboys (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-21 |
Bucs v. Saints +4.5 |
Top |
27-36 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-2) has won two games in a row — both on the road — after a 13-10 win at Seattle as a 6-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay (6-1) has won four in a row after their 38-3 victory against Chicago last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay benefited from an overwhelmed rookie at quarterback in the Bears Justin Fields who helped them earn a +4 net turnover margin in that game. But the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Now this team goes on the road where they are being outscored this season by -0.6 net Points-Per-Game. Tom Brady and company lost by 10 points in Los Angeles against the Rams before beating New England in overtime by two points and defeating Philadelphia by just six points 2 1/2 weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The high-powered Patriots offense is scoring only 23.7 PPG in their three road games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been piling up style points against weak competition — they have played Miami, the Eagles, and the Bears in the last three weeks after the Brady versus Bill Belichick overtime thriller in Foxboro that began their winning streak. The Bucs are not at full health with Antonio Brown out at wide receiver and the secondary banged up including last year’s starting cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting on IR. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Richard Sherman, and linebacker Lavonte David are among the players listed as questionable. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning their last two games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has transformed this team into a defense-first group that is risk-averse on offense. The Saints defense is allowing only 16.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric for defense. Jameis Winston has been underappreciated at quarterback this season — he has not turned the ball over in his six of his games and he has 10 touchdown passes without an interception in the red zone. The organization made a savvy trade this week by re-acquiring veteran running back Mark Ingram from Houston to spell Alvin Kamara who cannot keep touching the ball 30 times per game. Now New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for just the second time all season given a front-loaded road schedule compounded by them playing their opening game in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The Saints have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games as an underdog including seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 home games as an underdog, New Orleans has covered the point spread 7 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints' defense did a good job of containing Brady in their three games last year. While the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in the playoffs last year by a 30-20 score as a 2.5-point underdog, they lost both regular-season games while scoring just 26 combined points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Buccaneers — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-21 |
Louisville v. NC State -6 |
Top |
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 31-30 loss at Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point favorite. Louisville (4-3) has won four in a row after a 28-14 win against Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State suffered their second upset loss this season with their loss to the Hurricanes. But the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. NC State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Quarterback Devin Leary completed 24 of 42 passes for 310 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Leary is completing 65% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Wolfpack also has a stout defense. They are fourth in opponent’s Rush Success Rate — and they are allowing only 93.3 rushing YPG which is the tenth lowest in the nation. NC State is also 22nd in the nation in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. They return home where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.0 PPG. They are holding their guests to just 13.8 PPG and 290.3 total YPG — and they are scoring 37.8 PPG and 458.5 total YPG at home. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in all 6 games at home against ACC opponents. Louisville held the Eagles to just 266 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite that good effort, the Cardinals are still allowing 27.0 PPG ranking 76th in the nation — and they have given up at least 30 points four times this season. They lack a pass rush to put pressure on Leary. They also go on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 34.3 PPG and 507.7 YPG. Louisville is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road — and they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: NC State did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. Louisville committed four turnovers last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-21 |
Rutgers -1 v. Illinois |
Top |
20-14 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (3-4) return to action on a four-game losing streak after their 21-7 upset loss at Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Illinois (3-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-18 upset win at Penn State in nine overtimes as a 24.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The bye week could not come soon enough for head coach Greg Schiano in his second year back coaching the Rutgers program. Injuries had hit both sides of the ball including quarterback Noah Vedral who played against Northwestern despite a nagging arm injury. The Scarlet Knights have already endured most of the brutal part of the Big Ten schedule against the powers in the East Division having played Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State during their recent losing streak. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 222 total yards against the Wildcats, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Scarlet Knights thrive at defending against the run — they rank 21st in the nation in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. Illinois is one-dimensional on offense running the ball 58% of the time. They lost quarterback Artur Sitkowksi to a season-ending broken arm in the upset win against the Nittany Lions last week. The former Rutgers transfer took the starting job away from Brandon Peters early in the season. Peters, a former transfer from Michigan, is completing under 49% of his passes while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt this season. He has not thrown for more than 200 yards this season. There is a reason he left the Wolverines program. The Fighting Illini have passed for just 280 combined yards in their last four games. This group may be due for an emotional letdown after surviving the 2-point contest that their overtime game with Penn State devolved into. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit road underdog. The Fighting Illini ran the ball 67 times for 357 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after rushing for at least 300 yards. They only gained 38 yards in the air last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. They host this game at Memorial Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 42 or less.
FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Brett Bielema caught Penn State relying on quarterback Sean Clifford who was not 100% dealing with an undisclosed injury that clearly limited his mobility. Rutgers may be winless in Big Ten play — but they swept their three non-conference games including an impressive victory at Syracuse. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-21 |
Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (107) and the Arizona Cardinals (108). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) won their sixth game in a row with their 24-10 victory against Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (7-0) won their seventh straight game to start the season with their 31-5 win against Houston as a 20.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have covered the point spread in five straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Arizona outgained the outmatched Texans by +237 yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 net yards. The Cardinals offense has been nearly unstoppable behind Kyler Murray who is healthy and continuing to improve in his third season in the league. Murray started fast last year as well but he appeared slowed by injury in the second half of the season which restricted his mobility. With the additions of wide receivers A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore, Murray has more reliable targets than just DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk this year — and the team just added tight end, Zach Ertz, in a trade from Philadelphia who was overjoyed with all the green grass he had when running routes amidst all this talent. The Cardinals have scored at least 31 points in six of their seven games this season. The play of the Arizona defense has been the bigger surprise as they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games. I think this speaks more to the opponents they have drawn rather than a significant improvement in their defense. They faced two rookie backup quarterbacks last week in rookie Davis Mills with the Texans and Trey Lance with San Francisco three weeks ago. They caught a Cleveland offense ravaged with injuries at running back, the offensive line (both starting tackles were out), and at wide receiver two weeks ago. They even got the Los Angeles Rams flat in a letdown situation after they had just upset Tampa Bay the previous week. Throw in a third rookie quarterback in Week Three when they played Trevor Lawrence at Jacksonville — that is what Arizona has faced since a narrow 34-33 win at home against Minnesota in Week Two. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Houston to just 160 total yards and only 118 yards in the air, they have played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Cardinals suffered a big loss Wednesday night with the announcement that not only would J.J. Watt miss this game with a shoulder injury but he needs shoulder surgery that will keep him out the rest of the season. Watt has lost a step or two — but he is a savvy veteran who was drawing tons of attention so this is a big loss. Green Bay has experienced two big losses themselves this week with wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both entering COVID protocol this week. The duo has caught more than 50% of Rodgers’ passes this season. But Rodgers has been in this situation before — and he does what it takes to keep moving the football down the field. In his six games played without his favorite target in Adams, Rodgers has completed over 70% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. Even more interesting, while Rodgers averages 246 passing Yards-Per-Game with Adams playing, he averages 310 passing YPG in these six games without Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected back at wide receiver after he has been out with a hamstring injury — he joins Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown, and tight end Robert Tonyan as reliable targets. This shapes up to be a big game for Aaron Jones not only running the football but catching the ball out of the backfield. Forcing Rodgers to be more creative in finding other targets and doing more with his legs is not necessarily a bad thing. The Packers were outlined by -126 net yards in their win against the Football Team last week — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Over the Total after being outgained by at least 100 net yards. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs as a road underdog. Despite the Packers allowing only 20.9 PPG this season, they rank 24th in the Football Outsiders DVOA defensive metric.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona should once again score into the 30s with Rodgers playing catch-up to try to keep his team in the game. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (107) and the Arizona Cardinals (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-21 |
Saints v. Seahawks +5 |
Top |
13-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-4) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after their 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 33-22 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on October 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 14-0 deficit. But the Seahawks remained resilient to outscore Pittsburgh in the second half by a 20-6 score to force overtime. Geno Smith was solid under center as the proverbial “game manager.” He completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He did lose the football in overtime paving the way for the Steelers’ winning field goal — but that play had a lot more to do with the greatness of linebacker T.J. Watt than it did Smith making a mistake. Smith now has 32 career starts in the NFL under his belt. He will be supported by a Seattle rushing attack that gets former first-round pick, Rashaad Penny, back from injury tonight. Alex Collins was very effective last week as the lead back for the Seahawks as he ran the ball 20 times for 101 yards with a touchdown. While he has been slowed in practice all week with a groin injury, head coach Pete Carroll says he is “ready to go” tonight. This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle with four losses in their first six games. The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss with seven-point spread covers in their last ten games after getting beat in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. We had Seattle last week. One of my arguments was the absence of Russell Wilson would actually help the defense since there would be less pressure to “Let Russ Cook.” The Seahawks went into that game averaging just 25:16 minutes per game on offense. The bad defensive numbers the team was putting up were made worse by requiring them to be on the field for almost 35 minutes per game. Seattle did lose the time of possession battle to Pittsburgh last week — but they did hold Pittsburgh to just 345 total yards of offense. The 5.8 Yards-Per-Play they held the Steelers to was half a yard less than the 6.3 YPP their opponents were averaging entering that game. The 20 points allowed in regulation and 345 yards allowed was the Seahawks’ best defensive effort since the opening week of the season when they beat Indianapolis on the road by a 28-16 score. Carroll is happiest when he can run the football to control the time of possession and keep his defense off the field. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. New Orleans returns to action after their bye week having beaten the Football Team despite getting outgained in yardage in that game. The Saints also lost the first down battle by a 26 to 18 margin. New Orleans is 3-2 but they are getting outgained by -58.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Saints have been outgained in four of their five games this season. They are averaging just 295.2 total Yards-Per-Game with head coach Sean Payton keeping a short leash on quarterback Jameis Winston. New Orleans is running the ball in 54.9% of their plays on offense — and they are averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. Payton is trying to keep Winston from reverting back to his form with Tampa Bay when he was an interception machine. Keeping Winston from making mistakes in the Bomb Cyclone conditions tonight may be impossible. Like last night in Santa Clara, rain is expected all game with winds averaging 18 miles per hour and gusting to 23 miles per hour. Payton will not have his short-yardage specialist Taysom Hill tonight who is out as he recovers from a concussion. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also still on Injured Reserve leaving the Saints without threats at wide receiver. New Orleans’ elite left tackle, Terron Armstead is also out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Even with the bye week, the Saints continue a challenging stretch of game with this being their second straight and fifth of their first six games away from New Orleans.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football -- and Seattle owns MNF. Not only are the Seahawks 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games on Monday Night Football, but they have won eleven of their thirteen appearances on MNF in the Carroll regime. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-21 |
Colts v. 49ers -3.5 |
Top |
30-18 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) comes off their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a 17-10 loss at Arizona as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago. Indianapolis (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 31-17 win against Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers need a victory desperately in the uber-competitive NFC West after losing at home to Seattle before their loss to the Cardinals. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after losing two in a row to division rivals. Additionally, the 49ers have covered the point spread in their last 3 games after a bye week under head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco is the only team with a losing record in the league to be outgaining their opponents in yardage. They have a +38.4 net YPG mark due to their defense that is holding their opponents to just 329.8 total YPG. And while they are winless at home in their first two games, they have outgained Green Bay and the Seahawks by +84.0 net YPG while holding them to just 293.5 total YPG. They get Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for this game. The main reason why the franchise felt the need to trade up in the draft to select Trey Lance is because of Garoppolo’s injury history. When he is healthy, he is good. Garoppolo has a 24-10 record as a starting quarterback since 2017 with a 98 Passer Rating and a completion percentage of 67%. The Colts average 4.7 Rushing Yards-Per-Carry this season — but the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. But the Colts have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This is a tough spot for Indianapolis with them playing their fourth game on the road in their last five games. And with a showdown with Tennessee on deck, the urgency of this game is lessened. Sure, Indy wants to win this game — but having already lost to the Titans earlier this year, being ready to play that game is of higher importance. That could impact the playing time for some of their injured players. As it is, safety Julian Blackman is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles’ injury. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is also out tonight. The offense is without T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at wide receiver. Right tackle Braden Smith is also out. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been playing better — but perhaps his four straight games without an interception only indicate he is well overdue. The weather forecast calls for a bomb cyclone on the west coast tonight — meaning high winds and perhaps lots of rain. Wentz does not handle adversity very well.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-21 |
Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
21-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-24 upset win at Texas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (4-2) enters this game coming off a 33-20 win at Kansas State as a 6.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys contained the potent Longhorns offense coached by Steve Sarkisian to just 317 total yards last week. This could be the best defensive team under head coach Mike Gundy in Stillwater. Oklahoma State is holding their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 307.2 total Yards-Per-Game this season. They rank ninth in the nation by forcing three-and-outs in 43% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 11th in the nation in run stuff rate and 17th in sack rate. But the typical high-powered Cowboys offense under Gundy has been mostly absent this year. Oklahoma State is scoring only 26.5 PPG this season — and they generate just 363.0 YPG on the road. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Oklahoma State has played 24 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games as a road underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Iowa State held Kansas State to just 342 total yards in their road victory in that Big 12 rivalry game. The Under is 24-6-2 in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 21-6-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. The Cyclones have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win against a Big 12 rival. Iowa State is allowing only 16.3 PPG and 250.7 total YPG this season — and they have held three of their six opponents to 10 points or less. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cyclones have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by no more than seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State won last year’s meeting in a relatively low-scoring 24-21 victory in Stillwater back on October 24th. The Under is 19-6-1 in Iowa State’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State (383) and the Iowa State Cyclones (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-21 |
Wake Forest v. Army +3 |
Top |
70-56 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). THE SITUATION: Army (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-14 loss at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (6-0) returns to action after surviving a 40-37 win at Syracuse in overtime on October 9th as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army opened the season winning their first four games before getting upset at Ball State two weeks ago before their challenging trip to Madison to play the Badgers. The Black Knights managed only 266 total yards last week against the stout Wisconsin run defense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Army once again is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as they are averaging 295 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Army returns home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Army also plays tough defense. They are allowing only 20.7 PPG along with 281.7 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 21 points or less. Army limited Wisconsin to just 310 yards last week. Wake Forest remained unbeaten two weeks ago with their victory at Syracuse despite being outgained by -88 net yards. The Demon Deacons were also outgained by Louisville three weeks ago but also survived that game with a narrow win by a field goal. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less on the road. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 19 of 32 passes for 330 yards against the Orange — but the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The play of the Wake Forest defense is a significant cause for concern after allowing the Cardinals and Orange to each generate over 500 yards. Both Louisville and Syracuse exposed the Wake Forest run defense by generating 213 and 354 rushing yards. Head coach Dave Clawson does have the extra week to prepare for the unique Army spread triple offense — but how much can be done to fix a defense that is allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry? The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Wake Forest stays on the road for the second straight game where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in then 52.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Army has been an underdog against a Power Five conference team 9 times since 2016. They have covered the point spread in 7 of these games with two upset victories. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-21 |
Broncos v. Browns UNDER 43 |
Top |
14-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 34-24 upset loss at home to Las Vegas last week as a 5-point favorite. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row after their 37-14 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before assessing the respective M*A*S*H* units for both teams, the weather forecast hovers over this situation tonight. Rain is expected with winds in the 17 miles-per-hour range with gusts adding another 10 MPH to the air currents at times. This game has “first one to score 20 points wins” written all over it — and I will not be surprised if one of the teams fails to score in double-digits. The wind and rain will impact the passing games for both teams while negatively impacting field goal attempts. If this game featured Dan Marino with his credo: “if it’s snowin’, I’m throwin’”, then I might not worry too much about the weather. But tonight’s game features Teddy Bridgewater (or maybe Drew Lock, especially by the end of the game given Bridgewater’s foot injury) against Case Keenum. And both these head coaches prefer to run the football — so they are not likely to engage in higher-risk passing attacks in these conditions coming off upset losses where they lost the turnover battle by -4 and -3 margins respectively. Who would be the targets anyways? Denver is without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is healthy but he is more of a possession receiver) and Cleveland looks to be without Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry is still on IR (UPDATE: Landry was activated from IR this afternoon although his effectiveness remains a question -- his availability does not impact this play). Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio wants to get his team back to playing good defense after allowing 426 yards to the Raiders last week. While the Denver defense is banged up (especially at linebacker), they still have Von Miller — and they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Under is also 21-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 28 games after a game where they allowed at least 350 yards. Denver did hold the Raiders to just 86 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos are allowing opposing rushers to average 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry — the Browns will likely struggle to try to run the football without both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at running back given their injuries. Denver goes back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 PPG and 298.0 total YPG. But they are scoring just 16.7 PPG in their last three games. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Cleveland has played 25 of their last 33 home games Under the Total after a loss at home in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. The Browns only managed 290 total yards last week against the Cardinals' defense. The problem is not just being without Chubb, Hunt, Landry, and probably Beckham. And the problem is not really about Baker Mayfield being out since I consider Case Keenum a quality backup playing under his former offensive coordinator at Minnesota in Kevin Stefanski. The issue is the Browns’ offensive line that was without both starting tackles last week (despite both being listed as questionable on game day — that usually means the player takes the field despite the injury). The news this morning is that left tackle Jedrick Wills will try to play tonight — but right tackle Jack Conklin and center J.C. Tretter are highly questionable. Conklin did not play on Sunday and Tretter did not take part in practice yesterday. Even with Mayfield, Cleveland is scoring only 23.8 PPG at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on Thursday night. The Under is 27-13-1 in the Broncos’ last 41 games against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-21 |
Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 |
Top |
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4-point favorite last Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (6-0) remained unbeaten this season by winning their seventh game in their last eighteen since the start of last season with their 52-20 victory at Arkansas State as a 20-point favorite back on October 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State was flat on the road against a Ragin’ Cajuns team motivated to avenge a loss against them last year. We had Louisiana last week in that spot — and that loss sets up a nice situation for the Mountaineers. Head coach Shawn Clark can still have his team in the driver’s seat to win the Sub Belt East Division with a victory tonight. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and in their three losses by at least four touchdowns in program history, they have responded to cover the point spread all 3 times. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Appalachian State returned ten starters and their top seven tacklers from their defense that was 18th in the nation by allowing only 328.8 total YPG. The bigger concerns may be on offense after former Clemson and Duke transfer quarterback Chase Brice may have played the worst game of his career by throwing two interceptions to the Ragin’ Cajuns while completing 15 of 27 passes for only 135 yards. The Mountaineers are banged up at running back as well with Camerun Peoples missing the last two games and Daetrick Harrington and Nate Noel questionable. Former Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith is healthy — so Appalachian State still has talent at the position even if all three of those other backs cannot take the field. The Mountaineers rank 20th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate. They should play better. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while sophomore quarterback Grayson McCall completed 18 of 23 passes for 365 yards against the Red Wolves — but the Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Coastal Carolina has benefited from a soft early schedule — their wins have come against one FCS program in The Citadel and just one FBS team in Kansas. Their Group of Five campaign so far has been against Massachusetts, UL-Monroe, Buffalo, and then Arkansas State. This is — by far — their biggest test this season after being a two-touchdown favorite or better in their first six games. The Chanticleers are playing their second straight game on the road — and playing in hostile environments is not a normal occurrence for this team that benefited from limited crowds in their road games during the pandemic in their 11-1 season a year ago. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State is not an underdog often when playing at home at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone. The Mountaineers have lost only five times at home since 2015. Appalachian State has covered the point s spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-21 |
Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 |
Top |
37-14 |
Loss |
-119 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 47-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Arizona (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 victory at home against San Francisco as a 6-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland lost to the Chargers despite outgaining them by +38 net yards. The Browns have won the yardage battle in all five of their games this season — but two blown double-digit leads represent the two blemishes on their record. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Browns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a bad matchup for the Cardinals who allowed their opponents to average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Cleveland leads the NFL by averaging 188 rushing YPG and 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Granted, the Browns are missing Nick Chubb for this game — but this is an opportunity for Kareem Hunt to be the featured back. Cleveland’s ground game thrives from one of the best offensive lines in the league. They rushed for 230 yards last week against the Chargers — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. And while they outrushed the Chargers by +118 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Arizona may be due for a letdown after their undefeated start to the season. They have covered the point spread in three straight games with their last two games against the Rams and 49ers. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And in their last 36 games after winning three games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these games. As if traveling east was enough of a challenge, the Cardinals are dealing with a COVID outbreak that will keep not only head coach Kliff Kingsbury but also their quarterbacks' coach from traveling with the team. My cynical reaction to this news is that Arizona may be better off without Kingsbury — but he is the play-caller for the team. The loss of the QB coach is also big since he is the one who communicates Kyler Murray’s in-game thoughts and preferences to the play-caller. The loss of these coaches on the sidelines creates chaos — the Saints got beat badly by 19 points at Carolina in Week Two after their COVID outbreak left them without some coaches on the sidelines. Their best pass rusher Chandler Jones is also out with COVID. Murray is not 100% either as he is dealing with an arm injury. Murray only ran for one yard last week while dealing with that injury. Arizona is just 1-7-1 straight-up when Murray does not rush for at least 15 yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters even more for the Cardinals, high winds in the 20 miles-per-hour range are expected in Cleveland this afternoon — making a good rushing attack even more valuable with the wind impacting balls in the air. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-21 |
Iowa State v. Kansas State +7 |
Top |
33-20 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 37-31 loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago on October 2nd as a 12-point underdog. Iowa State (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 59-7 win against Kansas as a 34.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State lost to the Sooners despite outgaining them by +28 net yards. Quarterback Skylar Thomson completed 29 of 41 passes for 320 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in a losing effort. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their las 5 games after losing two of their last three games. This program under head coach Bill Snyder and now Chris Klieman have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.3 PPG and outgaining their guests by +66.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a dog overall — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against Big 12 opponents. And in their last 55 games in October, the Wildcats are 37-16-2 ATS. Iowa State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 28 or more points. Additionally, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. After committing four turnovers in their showdown with Iowa last month, the Cyclones have not committed more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has likely had this game circled after getting embarrassed in Ames last year where the Cyclones crushed them by a 45-0 score. The Wildcats will have revenge on their mind — and they upset Iowa State two years ago in Manhattan by a 27-17 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-21 |
Purdue v. Iowa UNDER 43 |
Top |
24-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). THE SITUATION: Purdue (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-13 upset loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (6-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 23-20 win against Penn State as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Boilermakers lost to the Golden Gophers despite holding them to just 300 total yards. Purdue has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite against a Big Ten opponent. And while quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 34 of 52 passes for 371 yards in the losing effort, they have then played 4 straight Unders after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Purdue has an underrated defense that is fifth in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate and tenth in points allowed per drive. They are allowing 15.4 PPG and 299.6 total YPG. But the Boilermakers’ offense is scoring just 23.6 PPG and only 5.5 Yards-Per-Play. They average just 90.2 rushing YPG with a 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry rushing clip. Furthermore, they play at a very slow pace averaging 25.5 seconds per play. They go back on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Purdue has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against conference opponents. Iowa beat the Nittany Lions despite only gaining 305 yards in that game — but they held Penn State to just 287 total yards. The Hawkeyes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Big Ten foe. Iowa has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Iowa has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are not efficient on offense with just a 36.5% success rate. They also play at a slow pace as they average 29.2 seconds-per-play. Iowa may score 31.5 PPG but they are generating just 317.5 total YPG. But the Hawkeyes’ defense is elite as they hold their opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 270.4 total YPG. They are tenth in the nation by allowing just 90.3 rushing YPG. Iowa has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games when favored — and they had played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and Purdue has played 5 straight Unders in October. While the number in the low-40s for this game makes the Under bet ominous, both these teams have great defenses and limited offenses that play at a slow pace. The first team to 20 points probably wins. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (181) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-21 |
Bucs v. Eagles +7 |
Top |
28-22 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles pulled off a nice win against a solid Panthers team last week. They held Carolina to just 267 yards in the win. Philadelphia had lost three games in a row where they did not cover the point spread — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 65 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games, the Eagles have covered the point spread a decisive 42 times. Philly is winless at home this year in difficult games against San Francisco and Kansas City — but they outgained both those teams by a combined +6.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Tampa Bay may be due for a letdown after their blowout win against the Dolphins. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense — but they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for a whopping 314 Yards-Per-Game in the air. The Tampa Bay defense will be without two important starters in linebacker Lavonte David and free safety Antoine Winfield as they are dealing with injuries. Now they go on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.0 PPG. They are scoring just 21.5 PPG in their first two games away from home — and quarterback Tom Brady is dealing with an injured right hand which may slow him down in the passing game. His safety valve in Rob Gronkowski is also still out tonight with a rib injury. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Tampa Bay is also 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have been inconsistent this season which is not a big surprise for teams coming off Super Bowl triumphs. These are the types of games where these champions tend to underachieve — especially when on a short week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a Thursday night. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|