At 8:50 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (701) and the Houston Cougars (679) in the National Championship Game of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida (35-4) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-73 victory against Auburn as a 2-point favorite in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Houston (34-4) has won 18 games in a row after their 70-67 upset victory against Duke in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We were on Duke against the Cougars on Saturday — and despite getting that call wrong, much of my concern about this Houston team played out as  I expected. As I wrote for that Report: “Houston’s offense can still go cold because of their inefficiency inside the arc.” Sure enough, the Cougars only made 13 of their 39 shots from inside the arc for a rough 33.3% shooting percentage. Houston ranks 292nd by making only 48.0% of their shots inside the arc — and that mark drops to a 46.1% clip on the road which ranks 283rd. They are scoring -2.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But the Cougars are one of head coach Kelvin Sampson’s best scoring teams because they lead the nation by nailing 39.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they nailed 10 of their 22 shots from behind the arc against the Blue Devils at a 45.5% clip. Can they come close to that tonight? The Gators rank sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.5% shooting from behind the arc. The other area where Houston dominated was on the offensive glass as they pulled down 18 offensive rebounds on a remarkable 46.2% of their missed shots — despite Duke’s significant size edge. Credit goes to box-out fundamentals this team has been taught —  but the Cougars once again are at a size disadvantage since the Gators have four players in their forward rotation that are taller than 6’8 which is how big Houston gets on their front line from their regulars. Florida ranks 133rd in the nation with their opponents rebounding 29.0% of their missed shots — but that number is reflective of head coach Todd Golden’s desire to play at a fast pace and get up-and-down in transition from their opponent's missed shots. Given what the Cougars did to Duke, Golden may have his team focus more on limiting second-chance opportunities. They limited Auburn to pulling down only 25% of their missed shots despite the Tigers ranking 50th in the nation in offensive rebounding (34.2%). In the SEC Tournament Championship Game, they held Tennessee to rebounding only 17.4% of their missed shots despite the Volunteers ranking 23rd in offensive rebounding (35.6%). Clearly, Florida can frustrate great offensive rebounding teams if they want to — but the choice to do it requires them to slow the pace of the game down. Houston’s scoring can dry up if their 3s are not falling and they are not getting second-chance looks. In their regular season loss to Auburn, they made only 41.4% of their shots which resulted in 69 points. In their last overtime loss against the Crimson Tide who play at the fastest pace in the nation, they only made 36.9% of their shots. In their loss to San Diego State, they only made 37.1% of their shots. In their narrow 62-60 victory against Purdue in the Sweet 16, they only made 37.7% of their shots. A theme is emerging: if Houston is missing their shots, they can be beaten — and they did not make more than 42.1% of their shots in 11 of their games this season after only making 37.7% of their shots against Duke. On the road, the Cougars' 3-point shooting drops to a 38.0% clip which ranks 15th in the nation (still great, but no longer the best). To compound matters, they do not make things easier for themselves by getting to the free throw line — they rank 327th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Just not enough easy shots spell trouble — and they were fortunate to get past the Blue Devils with some fortunate whistles late in the game. But Houston stole that game because they held Duke to only eight points in the final eight minutes of the game and just 39.6% shooting (and 67 points) despite the Blue Devils leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Cougars lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 80% or more of their games. Florida allowed the Tigers to make 43.9% of their shots which was the highest opponents’ field goal percentage in their last three contests. The Gators' offense does take a step back if they get stuck in a half-court slog. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop to 24th with their effective field goal percentage of 55.1% while ranking no higher in 29th in their 2-point/3-point shooting splits. The half-court offense does not create enough catch-and-shoot scoring opportunities which is critical when facing this Cougars defense. They only had 11 of those catch-and-shoot chances against Auburn and missed eight of those shots. But Florida’s half-court defense remains elite. They rank ninth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank fifth with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% while ranking in the top 22 in both 2-point/3-point defensive shooting splits. The Gators can get caught in slogs. There were only 64 possessions in their 64-44 loss to Tennessee on February 1st. South Carolina slowed them down in conference play as well in a 70-69 victory for Florida with only 65 mutual possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Sampson wants to slow this game down to a crawl — and I think he will win the tempo battle. The Cougars rank 350th by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging 61.7 possessions per game. The Gators hold their opponents to 40.1% shooting — and Houston has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting including eight of those 12 games played on the road. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (701) and the Houston Cougars (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (680) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (679) in the Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (35-3) has won 15 games in a row after their 85-65 victory against Alabama as a 7-point favorite in their Elite Eight game on Saturday. Houston (34-4) has won 17 games in a row after their 69-50 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: There is a lot to like with this Cougars team. Three of their four losses were decided in overtime. They have lost only once since November 30th. They rank in the top ten in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. But when talking about the elite of the four remaining elite teams, I suspect the Cougars get exposed in this showdown. (1) I do have some qualms about their resume. Who is the best team they have beaten this season? The Volunteers on Sunday? Pomeroy says so —Tennessee ranks fifth overall in his Net Adjusted Efficiency numbers. But while the Vols rank third in defense, they were only 17th on offense. Houston held the Volunteers to just 15 points in the first half and 28.8% shooting overall. While head coach Kelvin Sampson’s defense deserves much of the credit if you watched the game, then it is hard to not place some of the blame on missed jumper after missed jumper by Tennessee — and that offensive performance under their head coach Rick Barnes was not an anomaly over the years. Perhaps the Cougars’ best win was against Gonzaga in the Round of 32. Pomeroy ranks them as the eighth-best team in the nation — but while they rank sixth on offense, they are just 30th on defense. Maybe it’s Texas Tech they split their two games against in Big 12 play — Pomeroy’s laptop places them 9th in the nation. But the Red Raiders are another one of those relatively imbalanced teams that ranks fifth on offense by 39th on defense. Houston’s worst loss was by five points against Auburn — and the Tigers rank third and eighth on offense and defense according to Pomeroy. The Cougars also have a five-point loss in overtime against an Alabama team that ranks fourth and 27th in Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive rankings. They also have a loss against San Diego State — and the canary in the coal mine from that game may be that the Aztecs rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which exposes my second concern with this Houston team. (2) Houston’s offense can still go cold because of their inefficiency inside the arc. The Cougars are one of Sampson’s better scoring teams because they rank second in the nation by nailing 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc — but their scoring can dry up if these shots are not falling. In their loss to Auburn, they made only 41.4% of their shots which resulted in 69 points. In their last overtime loss against the Crimson Tide who play at the fastest pace in the nation, they only made 36.9% of their shots. In their loss to San Diego State, they only made 37.1% of their shots. In their narrow 62-60 victory against Purdue in the Sweet 16, they only made 37.7% of their shots. A theme is emerging: if Houston is missing their shots, they can be beaten — and they did not make more than 42.1% of their shots in ten of their games this season. That will not be enough made shots against Duke — as I will discuss below. On the road, the Cougars' 3-point shooting drops to a 37.6% clip which ranks 18th in the nation. Houston ranks 282nd by making only 48.4% of their shots inside the arc — and that mark drops to a 46.7% clip on the road which ranks 289th. They are scoring -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. To compound matters, they do not make things easier for themselves by getting to the free throw line — they rank 327th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Just not enough easy shots spell trouble. (3) the Cougars lacks size. Their three tallest players in their rotation are only 6’8 — including J’Wan Roberts. I expect this potential weakness to get exploited by this Duke squad whose smallest player on the roster is 6’5. The Blue Devils will have a size advantage at every position — including Cooper Flagg at 6’9 and then the underrated Khaman Maluoch at 7’2. Houston’s size disadvantage plays a role in them ranking 207th in the nation in putting their opponent on the free-throw line. The Cougars also surrender +2.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road which ranks as the 250th biggest discrepancy in the nation when compared to their home defensive efficiency. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road against teams outside the Big 12 including not covering the point spread in five of those seven games this season. It may be telling that they have failed to cover the point spread in three of their four games against teams from the ACC in the last three seasons. The one-point spread cover was in the Sweet 16 last year in their 54-51 loss against the Blue Devils as a 3-point underdog — but Duke head coach Jon Scheyer did not have Flagg nor freshmen Kon Knueppel and Maluach on his team yet. All three are projected to be future first-round draft picks in the NBA — and Flagg should be the first player in the June draft coming up. All four teams that reached the Final Four rank in Pomeroy’s all-time rankings in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency in his database that goes back to 1997 — but it remains impressive that this Duke team only trails the 1999 Blue Devils as the best all-time using his metrics. Now that does not guarantee they cover the number in this game — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning their previous game by 15 or more points including 10 of those 14 games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Duke leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But it is the play of their defense that should help them separate against this smaller Cougars squad. The Blue Devils rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stymied the explosive Alabama offense to just a 35.4% shooting percentage — and the Tide’s 0.89 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate was their third-lowest mark of the season. Duke also won the rebounding battle by a 42-30 margin. Houston ranks 11th by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils limit their opponents to rebounding just 26.7% which ranks 44th. They also rank 18th in the nation on the road with their opponent’s shooting just 29.8% from downtown. Duke has only lost once since December as the team got better when (a) Sion James was inserted in the starting lineup for Caleb Foster in an upgrade on defense and (b) the offense began running through Flagg who continues to improve in what should be his senior year of high school. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 games on the road this season. And while the elite Houston defense holds their opponents to 38.2% shooting, Duke has covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have beaten both Auburn and Alabama previously this season — and they also beat Arizona twice. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams who are winning 80% or more of their games. And while Houston is outscoring their opponents by +15.7 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (680) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (681) and the Auburn Tigers (682) in the Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida (34-4) has won ten straight games after their 84-79 victory against Texas Tech as a 7-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. Auburn (32-5) has won four games in a row after their 70-64 victory against Michigan State in their Elite Eight game in the Big Dance last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Gators only shot 43.9% from the field against the Red Raiders which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. That they still managed 84 points because head coach Todd Golden’s team emphasizes shot volume when they have the basketball. They rank 59th in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.5% of their possessions — and they rank fifth in the nation by pulling down 38.9% of their missed shots. Florida also plays at a very fast pace — they average 16.3 seconds per possession and their games average 69.8 possessions per game with those marks ranking 43rd and 59th in the nation. Overall, the Gators rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are scoring +4.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home or true road games. But when playing away from home, they are also surrendering +5.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home. Florida has played 14 of their last 22 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Over the Total when favored. The Tigers hold their opponents to 40.6% shooting — and the Gators have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. Auburn outrebounds their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Florida has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Gators are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 Points-Per-Game — and Florida has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against opponents who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including 12 of those 17 games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. Auburn held the Spartans to 34.4% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row including nine of those 13 games played on the road. On the road, they are scoring +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions — but they are also surrendering +5.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions in those games. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and Johni Broome claims he is 100% for this contest after injuring his wrist late in the game on Sunday. Florida takes 63 shots per game — and Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who generate 62 or more shots per game. The Tigers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their 13 games Over the Total on a neutral court as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em with Bruce Pearl as their head coach. And while the Gators are outscoring their opponents by +15.7 PPG, Auburn has played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers want to avenge a 90-81 loss to the Gators playing at home as an 11-point favorite on February 8th — and they have played 12 of their 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss with Pearl as their head coach. 25* CBB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (681) and the Auburn Tigers (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (673) and the UC-Irvine Anteaters (674) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (28-9) has won 16 of their last 17 games after their 80-73 upset victory against Loyola-Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the NIT on Tuesday. UC-Irvine (32-6) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 69-67 upset victory against North Texas a 1-point underdog in their semifinal match in this tournament on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.  

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Anteaters made 49.0% of their shots in their upset victory against the Mean Green which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. UC-Irvine ranks just 169th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and they are making only 45.4% of their shots on the season. The Anteaters have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 14 of their last 21 games on the road Under the Total against teams outside the Big West Conference. They are holding their opponents to -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road which is the 46th biggest drop off in the nation. In their six games played on a neutral court, they are holding their opponents to -6.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which is the 12th biggest drop in the nation. Led by 7’1 rim protector Bent Leuchten, UC-Irvine ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 14th in that metric when playing on the road. The Anteaters thrive with their half-court defense by ranking seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% — and they rank second in the nation by holding their opponents to a 42.8% shooting percentage inside the arc. This contest will be strength-versus-strength since Chattanooga is an outstanding pure-shooting defense that ranks 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% — and they rank ninth in the nation with a 57.9% mark inside the arc. Leuchten’s presence down low should frustrate much of what the Mocs want to do on offense. Chattanooga’s scoring attack is led by two small guards, Trey Bonham and Honor Hoff, who draw out defenders because they shoot a ton of 3s. This opens up space for Bash Wieland to freely slash to the basket — but Leuchten will be waiting for him tonight. The Mocs rank 44th in the nation by making 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc — but that mark drops to 34.9% when they are on the road which ranks 92nd in the nation. Chattanooga ranks 54th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do score -5.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 73rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and their net drop off in offensive efficiency is the 291st worst in the nation. But the Mocs so play better defense on the road. They rank 262nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall — but they improve to 154th in that category on the road by surrendering -11.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which is the fifth-best improvement in the nation. The Anteaters are outscoring their opponents by +9.2 Points-Per-Game — and Chattanooga has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games in tournament settings Under the Total. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (673) and the UC-Irvine Anteaters (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan State (306) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 73-70 victory against Mississippi as a 3.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Auburn (31-5) has won four of their last five games after their 78-65 victory against Michigan as a 9-point favorite in their Sweet 16 game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State found a way to rally to beat the Rebels on Friday despite losing the rebounding battle by a 33-29 margin. The Spartans only pulled down five offensive rebounds which is unheard of for a Tom Izzo team. Izzo dialed up a great offensive game plan against head coach Chris Beard’s “no-middle” defense. Sparty shot 50% from the field including making 18 of their 31 shots (58.1%) inside the arc. They also made a living at the free throw line by getting to the charity stripe 22 times and making 19 of those shots. It was also very encouraging to see freshman phenom Jase Richardson score 20 points and make 4 of his 6 shots from behind the arc. He struggled in the previous round against New Mexico by scoring only 6 points. Richardson is Michigan State’s best 3-point shooter with his 42.0% shooting clip — and he jumpstarted their scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup midway through the Big Ten season. If this team can make more than 33% of their 3s, they become very tough to beat given all the other things they do well. The Spartans rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking 28th by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots and ranking eighth by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.6% of their misses. Their physical style of play on both ends of the court helps them get to the free throw line — they rank 42nd in free throw rate. Furthermore, they rank second in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.0% shooting from behind the arc. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win including 10 of those 15 games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court. And while the Tigers are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG including eight of those 11 games played on the road. Auburn continues to show some cracks in their armor against good teams in their victory against the Wolverines. They trailed by a 48-39 score with 12:26 left in the second half before going on a 39-17 run to win (and cover the spread). Maybe that means the Tigers are “back” — but it said more about that Michigan team who melted in those final 12 minutes. Take away Danny Wolf’s 9 of 18 shooting — and the other Wolverines only made 12 of 41 shots (29.2%). If you watched the game, then you know it was not defense prowess from Auburn as much ugly execution in what was sloppy play by both teams. The Tigers trailed Creighton at halftime in their previous game before getting it together in the second half — but teams that continue to live dangerously after sluggish starts tend to get burned. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 second-chance Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this Auburn defense that surrenders +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 321st-worst drop-off in the nation. They ranked 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc before Michigan went 16 of 42 (38.1%) with their 2-pointers. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 164th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.5% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of the 13 games when a four-seed or better including five of those eight games since taking over Auburn. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this month.

FINAL TAKE: Matchups make fights — and Michigan State’s three best offensive strengths with rebounding, inside shooting, and getting to the free throw line are their three biggest defensive liabilities for Auburn. The Spartans outrebound their opponents by +9.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 18 games on the road against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (647) and the Houston Cougars (648) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (30-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 78-65 victory against Kentucky as a 4.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Houston (33-4) rides a 16-game winning streak after their 62-60 victory against Purdue as an 8-point favorite in their second-round game in the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tennessee allowed the Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in that game which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee is once again an elite defensive team that ranks third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They present a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they lead the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. That mark does decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers have an elite perimeter defense that ranks second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranks 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they are scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Boilermakers. That effort continues a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts may not be close to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. They remain the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They are holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting which is resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee has only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also has an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play (more on that below). The Volunteers rank 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number does speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stop the opponent’s offensive rebounding. but those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston has played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they have played 13 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. But the money stat regards their opponent’s average length of possession since it tends to reflect their opponent’s frustration for settling for a bad shot. The Volunteers and Cougars rank 351st and 354th with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (647) and the Houston Cougars (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (641) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (34-3) has won 14 games in a row after their 100-93 victory against Arizona as a 9-point favorite in their Sweet 16 games in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Alabama (28-8) has won five of their last six games after their 113-88 victory against BYU as a 4.5-point favorite in their Sweet 16 contest in the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke torched the Wildcats by making 60% of their shots — and that was not an outlier performance when considering they made 64% of their shots against Baylor in their previous game in this tournament. The Blue Devils lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their nine games played on a neutral court, they are scoring +3.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Cooper Flagg continues to improve in his freshman season — not only did he dish out seven assists, grab, six rebounds, and block three shots, he is developing into a dynamic scorer which unlocks the last remaining part of his game for the next level by scoring 30 points including three 3s. Using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, Duke leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank fifth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even more impressive, in Pomeroy’s 29 years of advanced metrics in his database, only the 1999 Duke team has a better Adjusted Net Efficiency than this Blue Devils team — and I am not talking about just Duke teams, I am talking about every college basketball team since 1996-97. Now that accomplishment does not mean that the Blue Devils will cover point spreads — but they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after winning their last game including in the 13 of 20 of those games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. While Duke’s ability to score buckets can overwhelm their opponents, what makes them so tough to beat is their stout play on defense. They have size at every position with every rotation player being at least 6’5 — and they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. This size helps them neutralize good rebounding teams. The Crimson Tide rank 54th in the nation by pulling down 34.1% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils rank 46th on the road by limiting their opponents to rebounding 26.9% of their missed shots. Alabama outrebounds their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Crimson Tide makes 48.7% of their shots — but Duke has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against opponents who make at least 45% of their shots. And while Alabama is outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Alabama broke an NCAA Tournament record by nailing 25 shots from behind the arc against the Cougars on Thursday — but defense was not the calling card of that BYU team. Not only are the Regression Gods coming tonight, but it will be very difficult for the Crimson Tide to approach that number against the length of this Duke team. Mark Sears nailed 10 shots from distance himself — but at 6’1, he will have more difficulty taking these shots unless he goes full-on Stephon Curry and steps back even farther away from the line. Duke ranks 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.0% shooting from behind the arc. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country while ranking 37th in the nation by taking 46.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But the secret sauce to head coach Nate Oats’ approach is that this style generates easy looks at the basket. The Crimson Tide lead the nation by making 60.1% of their shots inside the arc. That’s not going to happen against Duke who leads the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.1% — and that includes them ranking second by limiting their opponents to 43.2% shooting inside the arc. But the rubber hits the road given how difficult it is to get off good shots against the Blue Devils: they lead the nation with their opponents averaging 19.2 seconds per possession which is the highest mark of all 364 Division I teams. Alabama can continue to shoot early in the shot clock — but they are likely to be lesser quality shots. An additional concern with Alabama is that in their final ten games before the Big Dance, they ranked 198th by turning the ball over in 16.9% of their possessions. Now let’s talk about that Crimson Tide defense which is the weak link in this game. On paper, they look good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allows their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots which ranks 161st in the nation — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses. Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they rank 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams. The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They have surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.  

FINAL TAKE: When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (637) and the Houston Cougars (638) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (24-11) has won three of their last four games after their 76-62 victory against McNeese State as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston (32-4) rides a 15-game winning streak after their 81-76 victory against Gonzaga as a 5-point favorite on Saturday in their second-round game in the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars made 46.8% of their shots against the Bulldogs which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. More surprisingly, they saw Gonzaga make 50% of their shots against them which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 contests — and just the fourth time all season that an opponent made 50% or more of their shots against them. Houston remains the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank fourth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.0%. They rank fifth in the nation with their opponents making only 44.3% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank 23rd by holding their opponents to 30.6% shooting from behind the arc. They are holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting which is resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. On the road, they are surrendering -2.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. But they are also scoring -4.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Boilermakers are a tough matchup for the Cougars’ scoring attack. The teams that give Purdue trouble can pound them inside given their lack of size. The Boilermakers rank 341st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 56.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Houston does not have a regular rotation of players taller than 6’8 — and they rank 272nd in the nation by making only 48.8% of their shots inside the arc. On the road, they only make 47.2% of their 2-pointers which ranks 271st in the nation. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they lead the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. That mark does decline to a 37.7% clip when playing away from home, ranking 19th. Purdue has a very good perimeter defense that ranks 33rd in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.0% shooting from deep. The Cougars also crash the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play (more on that below). The Cougars have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when the total is set in the 130s including playing eight of those nine games played on the road. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Purdue has played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. Of concern in the Boilermakers’ win against McNeese State was that All-American point guard Braden Smith committed eight turnovers against the Cowboys’ pressure defense. He is turning the ball over in 18.5% of his touches. Now here comes a Houston defense that ranks 18th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They are as aggressive as any team in the country in trapping the ball-handler on ball screens with double-teams — and that will force Smith to execute at a high level in getting the ball to Trey Kaufman-Renn. Purdue does rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are scoring -6.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Their 48.8% shooting percentage drops to 45.5% on the road which is resulting in 71.5 PPG which is -6.2 PPG below their season average. The biggest drop-off comes from their 3-point shooting. While they rank sixth in the nation by making 41.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, they only make 35.5% of their 3s on the road which ranks 66th in the nation. The Cougars make 45.7% of their shots — and the Boilermakers have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots. They have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total against teams winning  80% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: This game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Purdue ranks 304th by averaging 18.8 seconds per possession — and they rank 299th with their games averaging 65.1 adjusted possessions. The Cougars rank 345th by averaging only 19.5 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (637) and the Houston Cougars (638). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (27-9) has won five games in a row after their 91-79 upset victory as a 3-point underdog in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Auburn (30-5) has won three of their last four games after their 82-70 victory against Clemson as a 9-point favorite in their second-round game in the Big Dance on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn is beginning to show some cracks in their armor which may make it very hard to easily beat (and cover point spreads) good opponents like Michigan — especially given the Wolverines’ size down low. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this defense that surrenders +6.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 330th-worst dropoff in the nation. They rank 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 186th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. The Wolverines outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 16 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including three of those nine games played on the road. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after when playing with five or six days of rest. They got by Creighton last week by making 46.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But both Johni Broome and Dylan Caldwell struggled against the Bluejays’ Ryan Kalkbrenner who is a taller seven-footer. Broome only scored 8 points on 4 of 13 shooting while Caldwell scored just 6 points and pulled down four rebounds. Now here comes Michigan twin-towers with both Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin presenting matchup problems at 7’0 and 7’1 respectively. The Wolverines limit their opponents to taking just 22.9% of their shots at the rim which is in the lowest three percentile in the nation. Their opponents only make 59.0% of these shots at the rim which ranks in the lowest 20% as well. Michigan is playing outstanding defense after holding the Aggies to just 38.0% shooting. They have held five of their last seven opponents to not better than 38.7% shooting. On the road, they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wolf and Goldin combined for 37 points and 31 rebounds against a stout Texas A&M frontline. Those two will be challenged by the Tigers’ tough frontline — so it may come down to the play of guards. The Wolverines have won all seven of their games when point guard Trey Donaldson scores at least 16 points. Michigan ranks 15th in the nation by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc and they rank 76th by pulling down 33.4% of their misses — so they can exploit the cracks in Auburn armor on defense. The glaring weakness for this Wolverines team is that they rank 324th by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions. But they have lowered that turnover rate to 17.9% in their last ten games which ranks 255th over that span. And the Tigers only rank 232nd in the nation on the road by forcing turnovers in 15.8% of their opponent's possessions. Michigan is battle-tested after beating Maryland along with Wisconsin and Purdue for a second time in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Their 13 wins by four points or less this season can be seen as a negative — but it prepared them for this moment. Auburn is outscoring their opponents by +14.4 PPG — but the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 8.0 or more PPG. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Michigan has covered the point spread in all 7 of their tournament games played on a neutral court this season.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when a four-seed or better including five of those seven games since taking over Auburn. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (27-8) has won six of their last seven games after their 77-64 victory against Drake as a 7.5-point favorite in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Arkansas (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 75-66 upset victory against St. John’s as a 7-point underdog on Saturday in their second-round game of the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks benefited from a Red Storm team that could not hit the side of the barn Saturday afternoon as they only made 28.0% of their shots from the field. That was the best defensive effort for them all season — but it may be more of a statement about that Rick Pitino team and their lack of scoring options. Arkansas has scored two straight upset victories in this tournament after upsetting Kansas in their opening-round game. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Head coach John Calipari expects to get Adou Thiero back from injury tonight — but I still suspect their bubble gets burst tonight. I appreciate that his team has played better lately after enduring injuries for much of the year — but I still don’t like the profile of this team since they don't generate additional possessions and their shot volume is low. They rank 231st in the nation by pulling down 28.1% of their missed shots — and they rank 150th by forcing turnovers in only 17.5% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — especially if their opponent is not missing their shots. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 7-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15-2 record against their remaining opponents. They have beaten two Sweet 16 teams in Michigan and Kentucky — but they have lost to six teams who made the Sweet 16 with setbacks against Ole Miss twice, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. On the road, they surrender +2.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Their perimeter defense is of concern in those games with their opponents making 34.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 169th in the nation. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams outside the SEC. Texas Tech may get 3-point shooter Chance McMillian back tonight who is listed as questionable with his upper body injury. I am assuming he does not play and will be pleasantly surprised if he can take the court for the first time in this tournament for head coach Grant McCasland. The Red Raiders rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 37th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics — and since 2021, all but one National Champion ranked in his top 21 in offense and top 44 in defense. Texas Tech is one of 12 teams remaining in the field that meet those baseline standards — and the Razorbacks' offense which ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency keeps them out of that group. McCasland’s team is led by floor-spacing big man J.T. Toppin and pass-first point guard Elijah Hawkins. Another power rankings system other than Pomeroy’s puts them seventh in the nation — and they are ninth in the country in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. For comparison's sake, Arkansas ranks 41st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those numbers. They rank third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +5.2 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. The Red Raiders are a great road team because they generate extra scoring possessions and protect the basketball. They rank 59th in the nation by pulling down 33.9% of their missed shots. They rank 24th by only turning the ball over in just 14.5% of their possessions. They are also proficient with their 3-point shooting. Texas Tech ranks 31st in the nation by making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 58th by taking 44.9% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Raiders have beaten Houston, BYU, and Arizona who all made the Sweet 16 — and they only have three losses against Sweet 16 teams with two losses to Arizona and a setback to Houston. The Razorbacks make 46.4% of their shots and hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on the road this season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (33-3) has won 13 games in a row after their 89-66 victory against Baylor as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (24-12) has won four of their last five games after their 87-83 win against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Sunday night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke was dominant against the Bears last Sunday. They nailed 64.4% of their shots and scored at an incredible 1.51 Points-Per-Possession rate. Cooper Flagg appears completely recovered from the injury that kept him out of the ACC Championship Game. They have won their first two games in the Big Dance by 67 combined points. Using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, they lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even more impressive, in Pomeroy’s 29 years of advanced metrics in his database, only the 1999 Duke team has a better Adjusted Net Efficiency than this Blue Devils team — and I am not talking about just Duke teams, I am talking about every college basketball team since 1996-97. Now that accomplishment does not mean that the Blue Devils will cover point spreads — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning their last game by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. While Duke’s ability to score buckets can overwhelm their opponents, what makes them so tough to beat is their stout play on defense. They have size at every position — they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. This size helps them neutralize good rebounding teams. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils rank 44th on the road by limiting their opponents to rebounding 27.2% of their missed shots. Arizona outrebounds their opponents by +8.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wildcats hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — but Duke has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against opponents holding their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. And while Arizona is outscoring their opponents by +9.7 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win. They overcame a near-disastrous 19-4 deficit to the Ducks early in that game — and Caleb Love scored 29 points in the victory. The Wildcats go as Love goes — but he can be enigmatic. On the road, Arizona scores -5.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which ranks as the 306th worst dropoff in the nation. They also fall to 50th in the nation by rebounding 33.7% of their missed shots. Duke holds their opponents to 61.7 PPG — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Blue Devils’ 69-55 upset victory against the Wildcats in Tucson on November 22nd as a 1.5-point underdog. Duke’s size was too much for Arizona as they won the rebuilding battle by a 43-30 margin and held Love to 3 of 13 shooting with him making only 1 of his 9 shots from behind the arc. The Blue Devils have improved significantly since that game — the offense now runs through Flagg and Sion James replaced Caleb Foster in the starting lineup in a boost to the offense. At 6’4, Love will likely struggle with the size of James and Tyrese Proctor who are both 6’6. The Wildcats lost 7’2 Motiejus Krivas to a season-ending injury in early December — and the rotation of Henri Veesar and Tobe Awaka has not been less effective in his absence but they lost size in the necessary adjustment. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (619) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (620) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kent State (24-11) has won five of their last six games after their 77-75 upset victory at Stanford as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Loyola-Chicago (24-11) has won five of their last six contests after their 77-76 upset victory at San Francisco as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Flashes allowed the Cardinal to make 45.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Kent State led the Mid-American Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Golden Flashes had not played since Tuesday of last week before Sunday’s game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. Kent State is an excellent offensive rebounding team — they rank 24th in the nation by pulling down 35.6% of their missed shots. Their second-chance opportunities reset the shot clock — and longer possessions are a great recipe for Unders. They also defend the perimeter by ranking 49th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.3% shooting from behind the arc — and the Ramblers led the Missouri Valley Conference by hitting 36.7% of their 3s. The Golden Flashes amp up their play on defense when playing on the where they hold their opponents to 39.4% shooting which is resulting in 65.9 Points-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to a whopping -14.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 16th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 24th by limiting their opponents to 47.2% shooting inside the arc — and they rise to seventh in the nation on the road with their opponents making just 29.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But they are only scoring 41.3% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 69.4 PPG. They rank 223rd in the nation on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -6.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions away from home. Kent State has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Loyola-Chicago makes 45.7% of their shots from the field — but the Golden Flashes have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. And while the Ramblers hold their opponents to 41.7% shooting, Kent State has played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage no higher than 42%. Loyola-Chicago has played 13 of their last 20 games at home Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Ramblers only made 40% of their shots on Sunday which continues a disturbing trend as they are only making 41.7% of their shots in their last five games. But they held the Dons to 37.5% shooting — and their last five opponents have made only 36.9% of their shots resulting in 64.6 PPG. Loyola-Chicago returns home where they are surrendering -3.5 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. The Ramblers have played 17 of their last 27 home games Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 8 home games against teams winning 60-80% of their games, they have played 6 of those games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Loyola-Chicago has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and the Golden Flashes have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the MAC. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (619) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (612) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (611) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (17-17) has won three of their last four games after their 85-83 upset victory at SMU as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. North Texas (26-8) has won three of their last four games after their 65-63 victory against Arkansas State as a 4-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma State is a dangerous team that upset Iowa State earlier in the season. After playing their second-round game in this tournament on the road, they return home where they have a 13-3 record — and they score +8.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Oklahoma State has a good team profile since they work hard at generating extra possessions. They rank 36th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank 88th by pulling down 32.9% of their missed shots. They also rank 19th in free throw rate — and this is a particular weakness for the Mean Green. North Texas ranks 293rd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and it gets even worse on the road where they rank 332nd in the nation in that metric. This contest will be a contrast in styles. Oklahoma State plays at the 16th fastest rate in the country with their games averaging 71.6 adjusted possessions. The Mean Green’s games average 60.4 adjusted possessions which is the second-fewest in the nation. Playing at home, I think the Cowboys will be able to coax this game to play out the way they want it because North Texas turns the ball over in 18.1% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks 197th. The Mean Green also ranks 285th in the nation by only making 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they are scoring -7.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. North Texas is a very good defensive team that just held the Red Wolves to 36.9% shooting — but that was the best defensive effort in their last three games. The Mean Green have not covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cowboys allow their opponents to make 45.7% of their shots — but North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. The Mean Green have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (612) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (611). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (863) and the Michigan State Spartans (864) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Mexico (27-7) has won five of their last six games after their 75-66 upset victory against Marquette as a 4.5-point underdog in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Michigan State (28-6) has won nine of their last ten games after their 87-62 victory against Bryant as a 17-point favorite in their first game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Rocket Mortgage Field House in Cleveland, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lobos made 47.3% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But New Mexico ranks just 81st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are scoring -1.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road than at home. The Lobos have played 11 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when playing for the second time in eight days. This team ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road where they are surrendering -3.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. New Mexico has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Michigan State makes 46.1% of their shots — and the Lobos have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. The Spartans outscore their opponents by +11.3 Points-Per-Game — and New Mexico has played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Michigan State has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. And in their last 15 games when playing for just the second time in eight days, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Michigan State ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they are surrendering -1.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions — but they are also scoring -1.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Lobos make 46% of their shots — and the Spartans have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. New Mexico is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 PPG — and Sparty has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against opponents who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Lobos also outrebound their opponents by +4.0 Rebounds Per-Game — and Michigan State has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Lobos have played 7 straight Unders on the road with the Total set in the 140s — and the Spartans have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (863) and the Michigan State Spartans (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (865) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (866) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (23-11) has won two of their last three games after their 71-64 upset victory against North Carolina as a 1-point underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Iowa State (25-9) has won three of their last four games after their 82-55 victory against Lipscomb as a 14-point favorite in their opening game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State nailed 58.3% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 contests. But the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing for the second time in three days. The season-ending groin injury to their floor, general Keshon Gilbert, will probably catch up with this Iowa State team tonight. He was their second-leading scorer at 13.4 Points-Per-Game — and he was adding 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. The Cyclones had a 2-3 record in the five games he missed late in the season. Iowa State wants to force turnovers as they rank 12th in the nation with a 21.9% defensive turnover rate — but good luck accomplishing that against this Rebels team that ranks third in the nation by turning the ball over in only 13.0% of their possessions. Despite shooting the ball pretty well from distance, the Cyclones only generated 28.8% of their points from 3-pointers so I worry about how this team will play the math game if they are not able to generate additional pressure from forcing turnovers. Iowa State does not play great half-court defense either — especially on the road where they surrender +6.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 166th in the nation on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.8%. On the road, they allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road and 50.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 227th and 125th in the nation respectively. Mississippi should build off the momentum of upsetting the Tar Heels as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after a straight-up win. Ole Miss is certainly battle-tested after surviving the SEC meat-grinder this season. The Rebels beat Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play while also registering impressive victories against BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play. This is a balanced team that ranks 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they score +4.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions. Iowa State turned the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions in conference play since the beginning of February — and most of those games were when they still had Gilbert at the point. Look for head coach Chris Beard to amp up the fast pace that the Rebels like to play to challenge the depth of the Cyclones who deployed a short bench even before the Gilbert injury. The Cyclones do outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds Per Game — but Mississippi has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. Iowa State outscores their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but the Rebels have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including eight of those eleven games on the road. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court as an underdog or a pick ‘em. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Round of 32 Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (865) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (28-7) has won four of their last five games after their 77-62 victory as an 18.5-point favorite against Wofford in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. UCLA (23-10) has won three of their last four games after their 72-47 victory as a 6-point favorite against Utah State in the Round of 64 of the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: This situation did not particularly stand out at first glance (a common theme today — I do like tomorrow’s card much better, FYI) — but upon my final deep dive late this afternoon, I have concluded that this is a very bad matchup for what is otherwise a good Bruins team. In theory, UCLA is a dangerous underdog since they will slow the game down and do the things I look for in creating extra scoring possessions if their shots are not falling. The Bruins rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also pull down 32.8% of their missed shots which ranks 91st in the nation. But the Volunteers are a tough foe who are well-versed in what head coach Mick Cronin’s team will attempt to do. Tennessee is not going to mind the slow pace at all since they love playing grinders with their big bodies and perhaps the most physical defense in the country. They protect the basketball by turning the ball over only 15.8% of the time which ranks 85th in the nation. Admittedly, the Volunteers' defensive rebounding numbers are not great with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their missed shots — but those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. For the record, Tennessee held Auburn — and a better offensive rebounding team than UCLA — to rebounding only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. What worries me about the Bruins even more is that their defense has lagged lately. Over the last month, their opponent’s effective field goal percentage dropped to 175th in the nation. Defense is the weakness of this UCLA team — and scoring is typically the Achilles’ heel for Barnes’ teams at Tennessee. They rank 128th on the season with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. The problem is their defense inside the arc where they rank 187th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 51.1% of their 2-pointers. UCLA did hold the Aggies to 30% shooting on Thursday in what was the best defensive effort in their last 27 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the 6 games this season when they held their opponent to no higher than 33% shooting. In the 22 games with Cronin as their head coach when they held their opponent to no better than 33% shooting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 5 games on the road this season after a win by 15 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 25 games in Cronin’s tenure when they were on the road for the second time in three days. On the road, the Bruins surrender +1.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions with the problem continuing to be their interior defense. They rank 290th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 55.0% of their shots inside the arc. But of even greater concern is UCLA’s scoring decline away from home as they are scoring -8.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. While they rank 52nd when playing at home by making 57.1% of their shots inside the arc, they plummet to a ranking of 230th on the road by hitting only 48.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 150s. This UCLA team also loses hidden points from the free throw line. They only rank 190th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. And when they are on the line, they rank 231st by making just 70.8% of their shots from the charity stripe. The Volunteers see their opponents make 73.7% of their free throws which ranks 269th — so they will be pleasantly surprised to see the Bruins miss a few more of these shots. UCLA also ranks 209th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and Tennessee ranks 31st on the road in getting to the free throw line. In expected close games, spotting a defensive juggernaut like the Vol's shots and points on the free throw line is a recipe to not cover the point spread. This is the second-best offensive team in Barnes’ era at Tennessee as they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 61st in the nation. They rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. And this scoring attack is trending up with the recent emergence of Jordan Gaines who has scored 15.5 Points-Per-Game in the last six contests. But the play on the other end of the court continues to be the strength of the Volunteers. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank third in opponent effective goal percentage — and they also rank third by holding their opponents to just 28.2% shooting from behind the arc. The teams who shoot better closer to the basket have a better chance against this Tennessee team — and that is simply not UCLA. The Volunteers look to reach the Sweet 16 for the third straight season and tenth time with Barnes at the helm — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: The Volunteers are battled-tested having gone through the gauntlet of the SEC this season that produced a record 14 teams into the Big Dance — and they also registered high-quality non-conference victories against Louisville, Baylor, and Illinois. They are one of just five teams to beat Auburn this season. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams outside the SEC. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: St. John’s (31-4) has won 10 straight games after their 83-53 victory against Nebraska-Omaha as an 18.5-point favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Arkansas (21-13) has won four of their last five games after their 79-72 upset victory against Kansas as a 5-point underdog in their first-round contest in the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED STORM MINUS THE POINTS: Say what you want about Rick Pitino, but the guy is a fantastic basketball coach. In his second year at St. John’s, his team has won 20 of their last 21 games — and their four losses were by a combined 14 points. The weakness of his team is shooting — but his style of play compensates for that by being one of the best squads in the country in generating shot volume. They do not waste their chances — they rank 61st in the country by turning the ball over only 15.5% of the time. They get tons of second-chance scoring opportunities by ranking ninth in the nation by pulling down 37.4% of their missed shots. And they may be the best defensive team in the country. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they claim the top spot in the country in that metric when playing on the road where they surrender a whopping -7.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank sixth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and now they face a Razorbacks team that had turned the ball over in ten straight games before playing the Jayhawks on Thursday. St. John’s has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win including nine of those thirteen games played on the road. The Red Storm have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games including seven of those eight games on the road. Arkansas does make 46.5% of their shots — but St. John’s has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots including six of those nine games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Big East. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win including five of those eight games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. Head coach John Calipari’s team is nearly the polar opposite of the Johnnies since they do not rely on shot volume. They rank 244th in the nation by pulling down 27.7% of their missed shots — and they rank 135th by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — and that is a recipe for disaster against such a good defensive team like the Red Storm. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 6-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15- 2 record against their remaining opponents. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against opponents outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when favored. 10* CBB Arkansas-St. John’s CBS-TV Special with the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Liberty Flames (801) and the Oregon Ducks (802) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Liberty (28-6) has won five games in a row after their 79-67 victory against Jacksonville State as a 5.5-point favorite in the Conference USA Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. Oregon (24-9) had their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 74-64 loss to Michigan State as a 6-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Flames nailed 60% of their shots against the Gamecocks to claim that title — and it was the fifth straight game where they made at least 50.9% of their shots. Liberty has made 55.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 83.4 Points-Per-Game. They are one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They are second in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4% — and they rank 11th or better in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. What is striking about this Liberty squad is that their shooting numbers go up when playing away from home. They lead the nation on the road with a 59.8% effective field goal percentage. They rank third in the nation on the road by making 40.3% of their shots from behind the arc and 59.2% of their shots inside the arc respectively. While they rank 68th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency overall, they rise to a rank of 36th in that metric when playing on the road — and they are scoring +10.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. Their 50.3% field goal percentage on the road is resulting in 75.5 PPG. On defense, the Flames rank 42nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with their opponents making 40.1% of their shots which is resulting in 62.9 PPG — but their last five opponents are scoring 69.6 PPG against them. Liberty surrenders +4.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Flames have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total in March. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral court, Liberty has played 6 of those games Over the Total. Oregon has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game. The Ducks rank 52nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with a generic style of play where they do not thrive in any one area — but they are above average in all the key categories. Head coach Dana Altman has a significant matchup advantage in this contest that he is likely to continually exploit. At 7’0, Nate Bittle is scoring more than 14 PPG — and he should be able to score at will against the Flames’ center Owen Aquino who is only 6’8. On the road, Oregon improves their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking to 40th in the nation while scoring +1.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They also surrender +1.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Ducks have played 4 straight Overs when the Total is set in the 130s. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting — and they have played 6 straight Overs against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: In Altman’s tenure at Oregon, the Ducks have played 22 of their 30 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games in the first round of a tournament Over the Total with Altman as their head coach — including 5 of their 7 Round of 64 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Liberty Flames (801) and the Oregon Ducks (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (25-8) had won four games in a row before their 81-80 upset loss to Michigan as a 4-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Saturday. Grand Canyon (26-7) has won three games in a row after their 89-82 victory as a 4.5-point favorite in the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: Maryland is disappointed in not winning the Big Ten tournament — but this is still a team poised to make a deep run in the Big Dance. The “Crab Five” has one of the best starting units in the country. It starts with their frontline of Derik Queen and Julian Reese who are two bruisers at 6’10 and 6’9 and both around 250 pounds. Queen has become a double-double machine after pulling off at least 10 points and 10 rebounds in eight of his last ten games. These two big men are flanked by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and SeltonMiguel who combined to nail 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc in the final ten games of the regular season. Maryland allowed Michigan to make 47% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. But the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games under head coach Kevin Willard after losing to a fellow Big Ten rival. Maryland is a balanced team that does many things well that should keep them protected from getting upset in these early rounds. They rank 27th in the nation by nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc. They are also above average by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. They protect the basketball as well by turning the ball over just 14.5% of the time which ranks 22nd in the nation. On defense, the Terrapins rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks 37th. They are also strong at defending the perimeter by ranking 25th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 30.7% shooting from behind the arc. They also have a hidden strength regarding when they take shots and when their opponents take shots. Generally, teams that are quicker to launch a shot attempt are taking better quality shots since those opportunities become more sparse as the shot clock continues. Maryland ranks 29th in the nation by averaging 16.1 seconds per shot — and their opponents average 18.0 seconds per shot attempt which is the 262nd slowest mark in the nation. On the road, the Terrapins improve their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking from 25th overall to 14th best in the nation — they are scoring +5.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. Their 37.6% shooting from behind the arc on the road ranks 17th. Maryland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road, They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set at 150s. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Head coach Bryce Drew’s team upset Saint Mary’s in the Round of 64 last season but his club this year does not have as impressive a profile — and the Terrapins are much less vulnerable than that Gaels team was. The Antelopes do generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and attempting to force turnovers — but Maryland will make it tough to accomplish those tasks. But a big weakness of this Grand Canyon team is that they rank 295th on the road by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions — and that is a significant problem against the Terrapins. They also only make 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road which ranks 331st in the nation. The Antelopes score -3.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. They also rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road which may be fine for the WAC but it is another vulnerability against an opponent like Maryland. The Terrapins hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. The Antelopes have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games outside the WAC.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has covered the point spread in 20 of their 31 games under Willard when laying double-digits including in nine of those 13 occasions this season. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (780) minus the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (779) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (21-12) has lost three of their last four games after their 85-73 loss to Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Baylor (19-14) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-74 loss to Texas Tech as a 6.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Mississippi State made only 36.4% of their shots last week against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 14 contest. The Bulldogs should bounce back on the offensive end of the floor this afternoon since they are a good offensive team. They rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have good size which helps them rank 44th in the nation by making 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 57th in the nation by pulling down 34.1% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounding travels — and Mississippi State ranks 26th in the nation on the road by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots. And while they can struggle with their focus when playing defense, their intensity does ratchet up when playing on the road where they are surrendering -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 37th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when listed in that +/- 3-point range. And in their last 15 games on the road against teams outside the SEC, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. Mississippi State is the type of team that Baylor struggles against. Twelve of the Bears’ 14 losses were against teams ranking in the top 25 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor is a mediocre defensive club this season. They rank 129th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 49.8% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 234th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.2% of their missed shots. The Bears rank 56th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 108th in that metric when playing on the road where they are surrendering +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 314th on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 33.9% of their missed shots. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. The Tigers make 45.1% of their shots — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Baylor has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored or a pick ‘em on a neutral court including all four games when favored by six points or less or listed as a pick ‘em. 10* CBB Baylor-Mississippi State CBS-TV Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (780) minus the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (779). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-San Diego Tritons (769) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (770) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-San Diego (30-4) has won 15 games in a row after their 75-61 victory as a 5.5-point favorite against UC-Irvine in the championship game of the Big West Conference Tournament last Saturday. Michigan (25-9) has won three games in a row after their 59-53 upset victory against Wisconsin in the championship game of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRITONS PLUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine outlasted the Anteaters on Saturday by holding them to 35.1% shooting which was actually their worst defensive effort in their last five games. UC-San Diego has held five straight opponents to no better than 37.3% shooting — and those five opponents have made only 39.1% of their shots resulting in 61.6 Points-Per-Game. The Tritons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games including twelve of those fifteen games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after beating a fellow Big West Conference rival including seven of those nine games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after winning three or more games in a row. UC-San Diego ranks second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and they lead the nation on the road by forcing turnovers in 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions. This is a nightmare matchup for the Wolverines since they rank 328th in the nation by turning the ball over 19.8% of the time. And while Michigan’s size helps them outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Tritons have covered the point spread in 12 of their 13 games this season against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. On the road, UC-San Diego has a 17-2 record with an average winning margin of +17.9 PPG. They hold their opponents to -2.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. They rank 13th in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc. When on the road, they are limiting their opponents to making just 39.1% of their shots resulting in 61.6 PPG. The Tritons also rank 17th in the nation on the road by making 55.8% of their shots inside the arc. This is a team with a great profile to pull off upsets in the Big Dance. They make the most of their possessions by ranking sixth in the nation by turning the ball over just 13.4% of the time. They also rank eighth in the nation by taking 49.6% of their shots from behind the arc. UC-San Diego has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. The Wolverines do make 47.4% of their shots — but the Tritons have covered the point spread in 13 of their 15 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Michigan benefited from the Badgers only making 22.1% of their shots on Sunday — that was their best defensive effort of the season which may speak more about Wisconsin’s poor shooting than their defense. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after beating a fellow Big Ten rival. There have been 19 times in head coach Dustin May’s coaching career when his team held an opponent to no better than 33% shooting — and they failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those following games. On the road, Michigan is scoring -1.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. It is telling that the Wolverines only outscored their conference opponents by +0.4 PPG which betrays their 17-6 record.

FINAL TAKE: May’s teams in his coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played on a neutral court when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. The Tritons have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season played on a neutral court. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-San Diego Tritons (769) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (765) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (766) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (30-3) has won seven games in a row and 18 of their last 19 contests after their 63-48 victory against Bradley as a 4-point favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 9th. Missouri (22-11) has lost four of their last five games after their 95-81 loss to Florida as an 8.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Drake head coach Ben McCollum has constructed a style of play that is ideal for a mid-major to pull off upsets in the NCAA Tournament. They play at the slowest pace in the country — both the 22.0 seconds they take per possession and the 58.9 adjusted possessions they average per game represent the slowest marks in the nation. They also emphasize generating more possessions. They rank 10th in the nation by forcing 22.1% turnovers in their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 17th in the nation by pulling down 36.0% of their missed shots. This approach has been effective as they beat both their power conference opponents this season, Vanderbilt and Kansas State. Drake has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against opponents winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Tigers outscore their opponents by +10.7 Points-Per-Game, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games this season against teams who were outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Drake will play this game with confidence and should build off their momentum since they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after beating a fellow conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning two or more games in a row. Their style of play travels since it is not dependent on shooting the ball well. The Bulldogs have a 16-1 record on the road with an average winning margin of +8.6 Points-Per-Game. They score +2.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road — and they hold their opponents to -2.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. Drake has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. They have also covered the point spread in all 6 of their games this season as an underdog. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs since the Tigers are an offensive-focused team that can lose focus on defense. Missouri wants to go at a fast pace — the 16.5 seconds they average per possession ranks 55th in the nation. They make 48.5% of their shots which results in 84.5 PPG — but Drake has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Expect the Bulldogs to win the tempo battle which will frustrate this Missouri. The Tigers do crash the glass to get extra scoring possessions as they rank 66th in the nation by rebounding 33.7% of their missed shots. But Drake defends its defensive glass as they rank 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 25.8% of their missed shots. I don’t think Missouri flips the switch after stumbling into this tournament since they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after losing their last game. And while they have played nine straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They allowed the Gators to make 61.8% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort of the season. While I often think outlier efforts like that warrant a visit from the Regression Gods, the Tigers have seen six of their last nine opponents make at least 50% of their shots. Their last five opponents have made 50.2% of their shots resulting in 90.4 PPG.  Missouri ranks 71st in the nation and ninth in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 300th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.2% of their missed shots. They rank 239th in the nation in defensive free throw rate — and Drake ranks 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. On the road, the Tigers allow their opponents to make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 81.8 PPG. They surrender +2.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 350th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and they rank 339th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 324th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 56.9% of their shots inside the arc. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Underdog of the Year is with the Drake Bulldogs (765) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (766). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (710) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (709) in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (19-15) had won two games in a row before their 94-89 loss to Tennessee as a 9.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Xavier (21-11) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 89-87 loss to Marquette as a 2.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is a high-ceiling but low-floor squad. They have 15 losses this season — but they are also quite battle-tested after a grueling SEC campaign that features 14 teams that made the Big Dance. The Longhorns do have three high-profile victories against Missouri, Kentucky, and Texas A&M — and all three of those accomplishments are more impressive than anything the Musketeers have done this season. Texas has four capable scorers who average double-digits led by freshman Trey Johnson who scores 19.8 Points-Per-Game. After only taking eight shots in their loss to the Volunteers last week, head coach Rodney Terry should make sure the team works their offense around him tonight. The Longhorns allowed the Volunteers to make 50% of their shots in that loss which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. But Texas has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up loss. In one of the power rating systems I examine, the Longhorns rank 49th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency — and they rise to ranking 31st in the nation using those metrics when playing on the road. They improve to 39th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they surrender -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Their improved defensive play on the road comes from their perimeter defense which ranks 47th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 140s. I do concede that I don’t love the profile of this team. They can be too reliant on midrange shots with their four scorers working in isolation. Terry does not have his team operate from the 3-point or the rim philosophy as ardently as many of his peers. But he has recruited talent especially Johnson who could be a top-five lottery pick in the NBA draft later this summer. At least the Longhorns usually get the most out of their possessions since they rank eighth in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.4% of their possessions. Texas is also not great at creating extra possessions from forcing turnovers or pounding the offensive glass — although their 29.8% offensive rebounding rate is better than Xavier’s mark. But the Musketeers profile is even worse. Xavier ranks 316th in the nation by pulling down 25.2% of their missed shots. They also ran 147th in the country by forcing turnovers in only 17.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Granted, they rank sixth in the country by making 38.6% of their shots from behind the arc — but if these shots are not falling, their best Plan B to get points is to get to the free throw line, which is a precarious way to live. In their three games played on a neutral court, the Musketeers only made 35.9% of their 3s. Xavier enters the Big Dance playing its best basketball of the season — but competing in the Big East is not nearly the same as the meat grinder that was the SEC this year. Their only Quad One victory this season was against Marquette — but the Longhorns played 12 games against ten SEC teams since the beginning of 2025 that rank higher according to the power rankings system referenced earlier. The Musketeers rank 37th in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those numbers — and they drop to 54th in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 234th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road — and they surrender +2.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Interior defense is the issue — which is why I think the playmakers of the Longhorns will have success. Xavier ranks 99th in near proximity Points-Per-Possession allowed — and they rank 201st on the road by allowing their opponents to make 53% of their shots inside the arc. In the last month of the regular season despite their winning run, the Musketeers ranked 254th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with the culprit being this interior defense as their opponents made 55.6% of their shots inside the arc. Xavier has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games in March including 4 of their 5 games in the Big Dance with Terry as their head coach. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (710) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (709). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Furman Paladins (719) and the North Texas Mean Green (720) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Furman (25-9) had won six games in a row before their 92-85 loss against Wofford as a 1-point favorite in the Southern Conference Tournament on March 10th. North Texas (24-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 66-56 loss to UAB as a 2.5-point favorite in the American Athletic Conference Tournament.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Paladins have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including 5 of their 7 games this season. They travel to Denton for this opening round game — and they rank 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road where they are surrendering +2.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They are also scoring +5.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road based on very good shooting. They rank 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage on the road with a 55.6% mark. They rank in the top 43 on the road in both 2-point and 3-point shooting including a rank of 26th by making 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc. Furman has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road. They have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog including six of those nine games this season. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. The Paladins come into this game hot with their shooting — they have made 50.4% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 84.6 Points-Per-Game. Furman has played 7 straight Overs in March going back to last season. And while the Mean Green holds their opponents to 41.0% shooting, the Paladins have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42%. North Texas only made 32.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games. The Mean Green has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They earned the right to host this game with a two-seed in the NIT. They are scoring 48.0% on their home court which has resulted in 71.8 PPG — and they are scoring +7.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions on their home court. While they rank 47th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they plummet to 130th in that metric when playing on their home court — and they are surrendering +9.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home. North Texas has played 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 130s. They have played 7 of 10 their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Paladins make 45.7% of their shots, the Mean Green has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas has played 6 straight Overs at home when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB NIT First Round Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Furman Paladins (719) and the North Texas Mean Green (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (671) and the San Diego State Aztecs (672) in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (22-13) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 74-71 loss against Duke in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament as a 7-point underdog on Friday. San Diego State (21-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 62-52 loss to Boise State as a 1.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: San Diego State is a very good defensive team — but this game should go Over the Total for two primary reasons: North Carolina plays at a very fast pace and they can’t play defense. The Tar Heels average 70.4 adjusted possessions per game while averaging 16.3 seconds per possession — those marks rank 34th and 40th in the nation. And they are an elite offensive team that is playing its best basketball on that end of the court right now. They score 80.8 Points-Per-Game and rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 12th in the metric in their last ten games. In their last nine regular season games, they ranked ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage — they made 42.6% of their shots from behind the arc and 55.3% of their shots inside the arc. But in the last month of the regular season, North Carolina ranked 262nd in opponent effective field goal percentage with those foes making 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 338th in the nation. They also play the 20th-worst defense in terms of Points-Per-Possession against the ball handler coming off screens in the pick-and-roll. The Tar Heels rank 70th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they surrender +1.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. The Aztecs do hold their opponents to 37.8% shooting — but North Carolina has played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams outside the ACC including 18 of those 22 games played on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games this season against non-conference opponents Over the Total including six of those seven games played on the road. San Diego State mostly played teams in the Mountain West Conference that played at slow paces — only Fresno State and New Mexico averaged 69.2 or more possessions per game. In those four games, the Aztecs scored 75.5. PPG. They only made 38.3% of their shots in their loss to the Broncos which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including four of those five games played on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing to fellow Mountain West Conference opponents including all three of those games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. This Aztecs’ team is not as good defensively as some of head coach Brian Dutcher’s recent squads. They rank 290th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and I like Overs in games when a team will score their share of points when the clock is stopped. And while the national average for 3-point shot attempts per field goal attempt is 39.0%, they rank 354th in the nation with their opponents launching 47.3% of their shots from behind the arc. San Diego State’s strong interior defense may compel the Tar Heels to rely on their good outside shooting. The Aztecs also rank 347th when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.6% of their missed shots. They are surrendering +3.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But they are also scoring +2.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Despite their good defenses under Dutcher, San Diego State has played 8 of their last 13 games in tournament play Over the Total. North Carolina has played 16 of their last 24 games on a neutral court Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. The Tar Heels have also played 6 of their last 9 games in the Big Dance Over the Total. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (671) and the San Diego State Aztecs (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (638) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (637) in the Championship Game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (25-7) has won 10 straight games after their 68-55 victory against Seattle as a 3-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Friday. Grand Canyon (25-7) has won eight of their last nine games after their 75-66 victory against Cal-Baptist as an 8.5-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Frankly, Utah Valley is a team that only wanted to endorse when playing at home during the regular season given how disparate their home/road splits are. But Grand Canyon shares a similar profile of playing much better at home than on the road. I like this situation for the Wolverines — and I think the market is either undervaluing them or overvaluing the Antelopes in this spot given the point spread. This is a team that has won 20 of their last 21 games — they have lost only one time since December 14th. They lead the WAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 18th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line which is a reliable way to score baskets. Utah Valley is also a very good defensive team. They rank ninth in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.3% shooting inside the arc. And led by the 6’10 Carter Welling, they also rank 15th by blocking 14.2% of their opponent’s shots. They are also one of the best teams in the nation in preventing 3-point shots. They rank 23rd in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking only 33.0% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to the 39.0% national average. The Wolverines should build off their momentum since they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after beating a fellow WAC rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in three days or less. They handcuffed Seattle last night to just a 36.4% field goal percentage — they have held their last five opponents to just 35.2% shooting which has resulted in only 59.4 Points-Per-Game. They have also nailed 49.8% of their shots over that span resulting in 77.2 PPG. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road when playing for the second time in three days or less. I don’t like the matchup for the Antelopes. Admittedly, I do like teams who create extra possessions. The Antelopes lead the WAC by rebounding 33.4% of their missed shots — and they rank fourth in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.7% of their opponent’s possessions. But the Wolverines are stingy in both these aspects of the Four Factors. They rank second in the WAC by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 28.0% of their missed shots — and they also rank second in the conference by only turning the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions. Given that is so to score inside against Utah Valley, Grand Canyon may have to rely on their 3-point shooting tonight — but they rank 335th in the nation on the road by making only 29.0% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 311th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.1% of their possessions. The Antelopes have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 140s. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to 41.1% shooting overall, Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season meetings after the Antelopes won the rematch at home by a 75-57 score on February 1st — but Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Utah Valley Wolverines (638) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (635) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (636) in the Championship Game of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (28-5) has won six games in a row after their 96-78 victory against Cal-Poly as a 10.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament last night. UC-San Diego (29-4) has won 14 games in a row after their 69-51 win against UC-Santa Barbara as an 11-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Anteaters nailed 55.7% of their shots last night which was actually their worst shooting effort in their last three games — but now they face a Tritons team that had held them to just 38.8% and 38.2% shooting in their two previous meetings this season. UC-Irvine has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest with seven of the eight games played on the road finished Under the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on the road for the second time in three days or less. The Anteaters rank just 152nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — so those 96 points last night were an outlier despite them playing at a fast pace. UC-Irvine is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank second in the country by holding their opponents to just 43.0% shooting inside the arc. They also rank fourth in the nation in defensive free throw rate. On the road, they improve their ranking to tenth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are surrendering -6.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road rather than at home. They rank third in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 44.3% shooting inside the arc — and they also rank eighth by limiting their opponents to pulling down 24.2% of their missed shots. UC-Irvine has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road. We were on UC-San Diego last night — and they rewarded us by holding the Gauchos to just 26.7% shooting in a 69-51 victory. The Tritons rank 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they led the Big West Conference in that metric in the regular season which was even better than the Anteaters’ mark. They held conference opponents to just 39.3% shooting — and they have held their last five opponents to 35.9% shooting which has resulted in only 59.4 Points-Per-Game. UC-San Diego combines this outstanding half-court defense with elite ball-hawking skills to limit their opponents’ scoring opportunities as they rank second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponents’ possessions — and they lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponents’ possessions when playing on the road. On the road, they are surrendering -2.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They also score -0.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Tritons have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total when favored. UC-Irvine does make 45.8% of their shots — but UC-San Diego has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. The Tritons shoot 46.5% from the field while holding their opponents to 39.7% shooting overall this season. The Anteaters have played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total against opponents who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting — and they have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total against teams who shoot 45% or better and hold their opponents to 42% or worse shooting.

FINAL TAKE: I mentioned above about UC-Irvine’s struggles to make baskets in their two previous games against UC-San Diego. The Tritons enjoyed an outlier shooting effort by making 53.7% of their baskets in an 85-67 victory against the Anteaters on February 8th — but they only made 31.1% of their shots in a 60-52 loss against them on January 11th. UC-San Diego ranks 271st in the nation by averaging only 65.7 possessions per game — and they have been successful in winning the pace battle against UC-Irvine who did not score than 67 points in either game. Lastly, the Tritons have played 4 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Big West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (635) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UC-San Diego Tritons (866) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (867) in the Semifinals of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-San Diego (28-4) enters the Big West Conference Tournament on a 13-game winning streak after closing out their regular season with a 68-577 victory at UC-Davis last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (21-12) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 78-72 upset victory against CS-Northridge as a 4-point underdog last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRITONS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-San Diego should just continue to build off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win including ten of those thirteen games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after beating a fellow Big West rival. This is their second game since last Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing for just the second time in eight days. The Tritons are a reliable road team with a 15-2 record away from home with an average winning margin of +13.0 Points-Per-Game. They excel in basketball characteristics that travel well. They are second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponents’ possessions — and they lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.8% of their opponents’ possessions when playing on the road. This is an area where the Gauchos are vulnerable since they rank 259th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.3% of their possessions. UC-San Diego also plays tough half-court defense on the road by holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting which is resulting in 63.9 PPG — and they are surrendering -2.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Third, the Tritons lead the Big West by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc in conference play. Converting these reliable shots helps them rank 16th in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%. UC-San Diego has covered the point spread 13 of their last 16 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Additionally, I am comfortable laying the double-digits despite this game being played on a neutral court since they have covered the point spread in 12 of their 16 games this season when laying 10 or more points. UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with one day or less of rest including six of those seven games played on the road. I don’t like the profile of this team in tournament play since they live-or-die by the 3-point shot. The Gauchos are dangerous because they rank fifth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Tritons have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams making 37% or more of their 3s. And while UC-Santa Barbara has a 46.9% field goal percentage overall this season, UC-San Diego has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams who make 45% of their shots including all seven of those games on the road. If the Gauchos are not making their 3s, then they lack a reliable Plan B. UC-Santa Barbara ranks 261st in the nation by pulling down only 27.1% of their missed shots — and they are only rebounding 26.1% of their misses in conference play. Furthermore, they rank 157th by forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their opponents’ possessions — and that mark drops to 17.0% in conference play. On the road, they are making only 43.8% of their shots which is resulting in 69.4 PPG — and they are scoring -2.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road. The Tritons hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting this season — and UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are not allowing their opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. And while UC-San Diego is outscoring their opponents by +18.3 PPG overall, the Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Santa Barbara got swept by the Tritons this season after a 77-63 loss on the road as a 10-point favorite on January 23rd. They only made 5 of their 23 shots (21.7%) of their 3s in that game — and they turned the ball over 15 times representing 22.1% of their possessions. In UC-San Diego’s 84-76 win on the road in December, the Gauchos turned the ball 18 times on 26% of their possessions. 25* CBB Big West Conference Game of the Year with UC-San Diego Tritons (866) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (811) and the Dayton Flyers (812) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Joseph’s (21-11) has won six of their last seven games after their 75-70 victory against LaSalle as a 12.5.-favorite yesterday in this tournament. Dayton (22-9) has won four straight contests after their 79-76 upset victory at VCU as a 10-point underdog last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hawks only made 37.5% of their shots yesterday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 10 contests. For that matter, they held the Explorers to just 41.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last three contests. Saint Joseph’s has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They rank second in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Even after yesterday’s subpar shooting effort, they are still scoring 81.0 Points-Per-Game in their last five contests — but they are also giving up 73.0 PPG in that span. On the road, they are scoring +3.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home — but they are also surrendering +1.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions in those games. The Hawks have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 4 straight Overs when playing in March. They should find plenty of success scoring close to the basket against the Flyers. Saint Joseph’s ranks second in the Atlantic 10 by making 53.8% of their shots inside the arc. This is an area of vulnerability for Dayton — they rank 244th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 52.3% of their 2-point shots. The Flyers have been even worse in conference play with their A-10 rivals making 54.2% of their shots inside the arc against them, ranking 13th in the conference. Dayton has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow conference opponent. This is their second game since last Tuesday — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days including all five games Over the Total that were played on the road. The Flyers rank 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 18th in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 17th in the nation by making 37.8% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. They are scoring +7.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Dayton ranks 136th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to a ranking of 175th in that category when playing on the road. They are surrendering +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Their interior defense is the main culprit as they are allowing their opponents to make 56.3% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road which ranks 316th in the nation. The Flyers have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played six of those seven games on the road Over the Total. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of those seven games played on the road. They have also played  15 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Dayton won the lone meeting between these two teams back on January 24th by a 77-72 score — and Saint Joseph’s has played 9 of their last 10 revenge opportunities Over the Total. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (811) and the Dayton Flyers (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Revolutionaries (809) and the George Mason Patriots (810) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: George Washington (21-11) has won three games in a row after their 88-81 victory against Fordham as a 6.5-point favorite in this tournament yesterday. George Mason (24-7) has won three of their last four contests after their 64-60 victory at Richmond as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Revolutionaries made 51.8% of their shots against the Rams which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. And even Fordham’s 44.8% shooting clip was the worst defensive effort for George Washington in their last three contests. The Revolutionaries rank third in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they also rank 111th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. George Washington has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after beating a fellow Atlantic 10 rival. On the road, they drop to 172nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -2.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. The Revolutionaries have played  8 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. They play at a slow pace which should mean fewer possessions in this game — they rank 210th in the nation with 66.9 adjusted possessions per contest. George Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in March. And while the Patriots shoot 45.4% from the field, the Revolutionaries have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots. George Mason has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after winning their last game. This is their second game since last Wednesday — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in eight or more days. The Patriots have not covered the point spread in six straight contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games. This is a team that also plays at a slow pace — they rank 322nd in the nation by averaging 64.6 adjusted possessions per game. George Mason ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 216th in the nation and 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. On the road, they are making only 41.9% of their shots from the field resulting in 64.1 Points-Per-Game which is -6.7 PPG below their season average. They are often their worst enemy on the road given a turnover rate of 21.5% of their possessions which ranks 347th in the nation. But they rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road while giving up -1.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played four of these five games on the road Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in March.

FINAL TAKE: George Washington wants to avenge a 53-50 loss at home against George Mason on February 5th. The Revolutionaries have played 10 of their last 14 opportunities for revenge Under the Total — and they have played six of those seven games on the road Under the Total. They have also played 5 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Revolutionaries (809) and the George Mason Patriots (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Davidson Wildcats (723) and the Saint Louis Billikens (724) in the second round of the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Davidson (17-15) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 69-65 victory against Richmond as a 6-point favorite in the opening round of this tournament yesterday. Saint Louis (18-13) has won four of their last five games after their 90-88 victory against Duquesne as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats nailed 47.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow Atlantic-10 rival. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Davidson is scoring -0.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they are surrendering -0.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. Saint Louis made 59.3% of their shots to close out their regular season last week which was the best shooting effort in their last 17 contests. But they also allowed Duquesne to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 20 contests. The Billikens have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow Atlantic-10 rival. This is their second game since last Tuesday — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. On the road, Saint Louis is scoring -7.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. The Billikens have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on February 25th in the Billikens’ 57-56 upset victory as a 1.5-point underdog — and the Wildcats have played 8 of their last 13 opportunities Under the Total. 10* CBB Davidson-Saint Louis USA Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Davidson Wildcats (723) and the Saint Louis Billikens (724). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida International Panthers (697) and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (698) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida International (10-22) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 64-61 upset win against Western Kentucky as a 5-point underdog in the opening round of this tournament yesterday. Jacksonville State (20-11) has lost two of their last three games after their 74-70 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers only made 31.6% of their shots yesterday but eked out the win by holding the Hilltoppers to a 35.9% shooting percentage. FIU is only making 37.8% of their shots in their last five games — but they have held their last five opponents to just 40.5% shooting in those contests. They rank 354th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. On the road, they are only making 42.1% of their shots — and they are scoring -6.1 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They also rank 352nd in the nation on the road by making only 24.9% of their shots from behind the arc. The Gamecocks hold their opponents to 40.9% shooting — and the Panthers have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total against opponents with an opponents field goal percentage no higher than 42%. FIU has also played 13 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. Jacksonville State plays for just the second time since March 1st — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. They are making only 37.7% of their shots in their last five games resulting in just 66.8 Points-Per-Game. They rank eighth in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Gamecocks have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers want to avenge an 84-79 loss to Jacksonville State as a 3-point underdog on March 1st — and FIU has played 5 straight Unders on the road when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Wednesday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Florida International Panthers (697) and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (631) and the Montana Grizzlies (632) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Idaho (14-18) has won two of their last three games after their 80-70 upset victory against Portland State as a 4-point underdog in their Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Montana (23-9) has won 12 of their last 13 games after their 74-65 victory against Northern Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vandals held the Vikings to just 37.5% shooting yesterday in what was their best defensive effort of the season. But Idaho has played 4 straight Overs on the road after pulling off an upset win in their last game. That was an outlier performance for a team that ranks 347th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they maintain that ranking when playing on the road. Their opponents are making 48.1% of their shots on the road this season which is resulting in 77.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are surrendering +4.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The biggest problem is their interior defense as they rank 289th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. But they also are scoring +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 82nd in the nation on the road by making 35.2% of their 3-pointers — and the Grizzlies rank 344th in the nation on the road with their opponents making 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Idaho has played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Montana held the Lumberjacks to 38.7% shooting on Sunday which was their best defensive performance in their last three games. They still rank 256th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Grizzlies have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games away from home Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow Big Sky Conference rival. On the road, they are allowing their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots which results in 79.2 PPG. They drop to 278th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are surrendering +10.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. But they also make 49.0% of their shots on the road while ranking 12th in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 55.3%. Montana ranks ninth in the nation on the road by making 57.1% of their shots inside the arc — and they also rank 26th in the nation on the road in getting to the free throw line (and I like investing in Overs when a team scores points when the clock is not running). They are making 50.8% of their shots in their last five games — and they are making 51.5% of their shots in conference plays. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Idaho wants to avenge a 72-67 loss on the road to Montana as a 5-point underdog on January 20th — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (631) and the Montana Grizzlies (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Colorado Bears (630) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (843) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (24-8) has won five games in a row after their 76-52 victory against Weber State as an 11.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Sunday. Montana State (15-17) has won three games in a row after their 80-60 upset victory against Idaho State as a 1.5-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINT(S): We were on Idaho State last night — but they ran into a buzzsaw in this Montana State team who shot a season-high 63.5% from the field. And the Bengals could not hit the side of a barn either as they only made 33.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in the Bobcats' last 29 contests. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods tonight after Montana State played their best game of the season. As it is, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a straight-up win. I do not like the profile of this team since they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Montana State ranks 351st of 364 Division I teams by only rebounding 21.0% of their missed shots — and that mark drops to 20.7% in conference play. They also rank 298th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark drops to 14.3% in conference play. The Bobcats have a 4-14 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.5 PPG. They are only making 44.4% of their shots on the road resulting in just 69.1 PPG — and they are scoring -3.1 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. They also allow their opponents to make 45.2% of their shots on the road — and they are surrendering +5.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog (all of which were on the road). Northern Colorado has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Bears rank seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. Northern Colorado has been lax with their play on defense when playing at home this season — they rank 352nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home but still have a 10-2 record in those games. They do tighten things up on the defensive end of the court when on the road as they are surrendering a whopping -13.5 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road versus playing at home. The Bears have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Montana State wants to avenge a 73-66 loss on the road at Northern Colorado as a 6-point underdog — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities for revenge. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Northern Colorado Bears (630) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (843). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Idaho State Bengals (844) minus the point(s) versus the Montana State Bobcats (843) in the Quarterfinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Idaho State (15-14) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in an 82-79 upset loss at home against Northern Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Monday. Montana State (14-17) has won two games in a row after their 75-60 win against Idaho as a 5-point favorite last Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): Idaho State allowed Northern Arizona to make 57.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. But the Bengals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. Despite the loss, this team has made 47.3% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 78.2 Points-Per-Game which is +3.4 PPG above their season average. Idaho State also ranks seventh in the nation by pulling down 38.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the nation by rebounding 39.6% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They are outscoring their opponents by +2.5 PPG when playing on the road. They also rank second in the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. They are surrendering -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they covered the point spread in all five of those games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Montana State played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Vandals to just 36.7% shooting last week. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have to cover the point spread in all five of those games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a fellow Big Sky rival. I do not like the profile of this team since they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Montana State ranks 357th of 364 Division I teams by only rebounding 21.1% of their missed shots — and that mark drops to 20.7% in conference play. They also rank 307th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 15.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark drops to 14.3% in conference play. The Bobcats have a 3-14 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG. They are only making 43.4% of their shots on the road resulting in just 68.4 PPG — and they are scoring -3.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. They also allow their opponents to make 46% of their shots on the road — and they are surrendering +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog (all of which were on the road). They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning 51-60% of their games (all of which were on the road).

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games but the Bobcats won the most recent meeting by a 74-69 score as a 4-point home favorite on February 15th. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games this season when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Year with the Idaho State Bengals (844) minus the point(s) versus the Montana State Bobcats (843). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (812) plus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (811) in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (23-9) has won four games in a row after their 77-74 victory against Marshall as an 8.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. South Alabama (21-10) closed out their regular season on a two-game winning streak and five wins in their last six games after a 65-42 victory against Louisiana as a 12.5-point favorite back on February 28th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: South Alabama may be the underdog in this game but they have the advantage of getting more than a week off after claiming the top seed in the Sun Belt Conference tournament. Long layoffs like that can negatively impact some teams — but I think it will energize this Jaguars’ team given their style of play. South Alabama ranks 29th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions. This skill helped them lead the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just 31.9% shooting in their final regular season game last week. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 18 of 26 games under head coach Richie Riley when they held their last opponent to no more than 55 points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after holding their last opponent to no higher than 33.3% shooting. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win. And in their last 9 games after a win by 15 or more points, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. Away from home, they are surrendering -2.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than when they are playing at home. They rank tenth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. They also have the 15th-best defensive free throw rate when playing on the road. They also rank third in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are scoring +1.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Forcing turnovers is a skill that travels — and South Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em under Riley. Arkansas State is outscoring their opponents by +9.9 Points-Per-Game — but the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. This is a battle of styles with the Red Wolves playing at the second-fastest pace in the conference and averaging 64 shots per game. South Alabama plays at the slowest pace in the Sun Belt Conference — and they usually win the tempo battle as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. Arkansas State surrenders +12.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road rather than at home — and they are giving up +4.3 more PPG when playing on the road above their season average. They rank 314th in the country in putting their opponents on the free throw line when playing on the road. They only make 42.1% of their shots when playing on the road as that clip is brought down by ranking 283rd in the nation by making only 30.5% of their shots from behind the arc on the road. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em under head coach Bryan Hodgson — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their 4 games played on a neutral court this season.  

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama swept the two regular season games between these two teams — and it should fire up this Jaguars team that they are the underdogs in this third matchup. The Red Wolves only committed five turnovers in the first meeting — but South Alabama shot 50% from behind the arc in a 76-62 win at home. In the rematch, the Jaguars pulled off a 60-56 upset victory as an 8-point road underdog on February 19th by forcing 19 turnovers in 28.8% of Arkansas State’s possessions. The nature of conference tournament play does not offer Hodgson much time to make adjustments from South Alabama’s defensive pressure in that second game. The Red Wolves have had two opportunities to avenge an upset loss this season — and they failed to cover the point spread in both games. They have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games in their two seasons under Hodgson when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the South Alabama Jaguars (812) plus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (757) and the Troy Trojans (758) in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (15-19) has won four games in a row after their 61-56 upset victory against Appalachian State as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. Troy (20-10) has won three games in a row after their 70-58 victory at Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Monarchs have stepped things up significantly on the defensive end of the court recently. They held the Mountaineers to 34.6% shooting last night. After allowing Marshall to shoot 57.7% from the field against them on February 25th, Old Dominion has not allowed their last four opponents to make more than 37.1% of their shots including in the last three days of this tournament. The Monarchs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. But Old Dominion can’t shoot. They have only made more than 40% of their shots once in their last six games. For the season, they rank 359th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. They only make 45.2% of their shots inside the arc and 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc — those marks rank 346th and 350th in the nation respectively. On the road, they are scoring -1.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than at home. They are giving up -5.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road as well. The Trojans hold their opponents to 41.0% shooting — and the Monarchs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42.0% shooting. Old Dominion has also all 6 of their games on a neutral court this season Under the Total. Troy has played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. The Trojans rank 34th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are surrendering -8.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Their interior defense is particularly tough on the road as they rank eighth in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 45.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. But Troy scores -10.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Trojans have played 13 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total. Troy does pound the offensive glass — they rank fourth in the nation by pulling down 39.0% of their missed shots and that mark rises to 40.0% in conference play. For that matter, Old Dominion ranks second in the Sun Belt by rebounding 36.6% of their missed shots. Contests between two good offensive rebounding teams help our Under since both teams are likely to extend their possession with second or more scoring chances — and that is a formula for fewer overall possessions in the game.

FINAL TAKE: The Monarchs have played 7 straight games Under the Total when the Total in set in the 130s — and four of these games were played away from home. The Trojans have played 6 straight Unders when playing on the road with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (757) and the Troy Trojans (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (842) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (841). THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-8) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after an 80-57 victory at Air Force on Tuesday. Colorado State (21-9) has won six games in a row after their 83-56 victory against San Jose State as a 16.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: This is one of the better squads for Boise State under head coach Leon Rice. They have a legitimate point guard again after bringing in San Jose State’s Alvaro Cardenas who is averaging 6.8 Assists-Per-Game. The offense is led by the 6’8 Tyson Degenhart who is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game. Rice also decided to lift the redshirt of freshman Pearson Carmichael who was the two-time basketball Player of the Year in Oregon because the team needs his outside shooting — he is making 35.9% of his 3-pointers. The Broncos should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up victory. They return home where they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They enjoy a 13-1 record at home with an average winning margin of +21.6 PPG. On defense, they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while holding their opponents to -11.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. Colorado State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting — but Boise State ranks 44th in the nation by holding their guests to just 29.6% shooting when playing on their home court. Rice’s defensive approach is to deny shots at the rim and limit transition opportunities. The Broncos rank second in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 22.6% of their missed shots. They also rank 19th in the nation on their home court in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +9.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Led by Degenhart, they rank 11th in the nation at home by making 60.2% of their shots inside the arc. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 140s. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 40.4% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last five contests. But the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a straight-up win at home. And while Colorado State has beaten up on their lesser competition, their best win this season was at home against this Broncos team on January 22nd in a 75-72 victory as a 1-point underdog. Boise State is outscoring their opponents by +10.3 PPG — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. I don’t love the profile of this team because they lack a reliable Plan B if their shots are not falling. They rank 269th in the nation by rebounding only 26.9% of their missed shots. They rank 195th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.0% of their opponent’s possessions. Granted, they are a good shooting team that is making 47.6% of their shots — but the Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots. Boise State also outrebounds their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +5.0 or more RPG. The Rams go back on the road where they have a 7-7 record and get outscored -0.9 PPG. They allow their opponents to score +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. But it is their shooting that really suffers when they are away from home as they score -6.0 fewer PPG and -10.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. While they nail 39.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home, that mark plummets to a 31.2% clip when playing on the road which ranks 250th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 19.7% of their possessions on the road which ranks 294th in the nation — so that does not help their cause. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when playing with revenge on their mind. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year is with the Boise State Broncos (842) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (863) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (864) in the fourth round of the Sun Belt Conference. THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (14-19) has won three games in a row after their 64-61 upset victory against Texas State as a 6.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament yesterday. Appalachian State (17-130 has lost three games in a row after their 75-57 loss at Marshall as a 3-point underdog last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Monarchs held the Bobcats to just 37.1% shooting which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three contests. But they only made 35% of their shots yesterday which was the third time in their last five games where they failed to shoot better than 35% from the field. They are only making 36.6% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 65.6 Points-Per-Game. Old Dominion ranks 300th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 359th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.3%. The Monarchs have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. On the road, they are scoring -2.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions — but they are also surrendering -5.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. Old Dominion has played 5 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court — and they were an underdog or a pick ‘em in four of those contests. Appalachian State only made 36.0% of their shots last Friday against the Thundering Herd — they have a 39.5% field goal percentage in their last five games which has resulted in 63.8 PPG. They rank 270th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Mountaineers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after losing their previous game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. They only make 41.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 62.4 PPG — and that mark is -5.8 fewer PPG than their season average. They are scoring -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. But they are also giving up -4.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. Appalachian State is an outstanding defensive team in the half court — they rank 15th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1% They rank 16th in the nation with their opponents making only 29.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Mountaineers have played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored on the road — and they have played 7 straight Unders on the road against teams with a losing record. And while Old Dominion is making only 39.9% of their shots this season, Appalachian State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: The Mountaineers want to avenge a 78-77 upset loss at home against the Monarchs as a 10.5-point favorite back on January 29th. Appalachian State has played 4 straight Unders when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Friday Daily O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (863) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (849) and the Bradley Braves (850) in the Quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Murray State (16-16) has won two of their last three games after their 74-53 win against Evansville as a 5.5-point favorite in their opening round game in this tournament yesterday. Bradley (24-7) has won three games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 73-56 win against Northern Iowa as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Murray State held the Purple Aces to just a 34.7% shooting percentage last night in what was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. But the Racers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing a game where they did not allow more than 55 points. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total after beating a Missouri Valley Conference opponent. This is a team that ranks 19th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and I do like investing in Overs when dealing with a team that scores baskets with the clock stopped. The 73.0 Points-Per-Game they are scoring on the road is above their season average — and they are scoring +3.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Murray State has played 13 of their last 19 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 130s. And in their last 14 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total. Bradley held the Panthers to just 37.5% shooting on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Braves have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. This team leads the nation by nailing 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they make 40.4% of their 3s when playing away from home which ranks fifth in the nation. They also rank sixth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2% — and they remain sixth in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. They are scoring +2.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road — but they are also surrendering +4.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. Bradley has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played all 4 of their games on a neutral court Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Racers want to avenge an 85-83 loss at Bradley as a 7-point underdog back on February 22nd — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Friday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (849) and the Bradley Braves (850). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Long Beach State 49ers (785) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (786). THE SITUATION: Long Beach State (7-23) has lost 13 games in a row after their 70-60 loss at UC-Irvine as a 16.5-point underdog on Saturday. UC-San Diego (26-4) has won 11 games in a row after their 100-55 victory against CS-Fullerton as a 27-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tritons made 52.9% of their shots on Saturday — they are shooting 49.0% from the field in their last five games which is resulting in 85.2 Points-Per-Game. UC-San Diego has played 5 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total after a win against a fellow Big West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs after playing a game where they did not allow more than 55 points. The Tritons lead the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also rank third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and Long Beach State ranks 350th in the nation by turning the ball all over in 21.8% of their possessions. That should lead to many easy-scoring opportunities for the Tritons. They are scoring +2.1 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. They rank second in the Big West by both making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc and by nailing 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Overall, they are shooting 47.5% from the field when playing at home which is resulting in 85.0 Points-Per-Game. They are also given up +1.7 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — so UC-San Diego is not a team that seems a dramatic drop-off in their opponent's scoring when they are playing on their home court. The Tritons have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home — and they have 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. And while the 49ers are getting outscored by -6.7 PPG, UC-San Diego has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. Long Beach State has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss to a Big West rival — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Over the Total after a loss to a fellow conference opponent. They rank 321st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are giving up +2.0 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Their opponents are making 47.5% of their shots when they are on the road resulting in 76.1 PPG. One of their problems is that they rank 327th in the nation on the road with their opponents making 37.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They also rank 360th in the nation on the road with their opponents rebounding 39.5% of their missed shots. The 49ers are also scoring +2.0 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Long Beach State has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road. The Tritons make 47.0% of their shots and hold their opponents to 40.5% shooting — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who make 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no higher than 42% from the field.

FINAL TAKE: Long Beach State wants to avenge an 80-54 loss at home against the Tritons on January 16th — and they have played 6 of their last opportunities for revenge Over the Total. 25* CBB Big West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Long Beach State 49ers (785) and the UC-San Diego Tritons (786). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacred Heart Pioneers (719) and the Manhattan Jaspers (720). THE SITUATION: Sacred Heart (14-15) has won three of their last four games after their 83-62 win against Fairfield as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Manhattan (15-12) has won two games in a row after their 85-79 win against Niagara as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pioneers have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference rival. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a victory on their home court by 20 or more points. Sacred Heart plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They rank 45th in the nation by averaging only 16.3 seconds per possession — and they rank 46th in the nation by averaging 70.4 possessions per game. In conference play, they rank second in both those categories. The Pioneers rank second in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they also rank 295th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they drop to 345th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are allowing +11.2 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Their opponents are making 46.6% of their shots when they are playing on the road which is resulting in 79.5 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 327th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.8% in their games away from home. But they also rank 25th in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Sacred Heart has played 9 of their last 14 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Additionally, the Pioneers have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Manhattan has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Jaspers lead the MAAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they also rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stay at home where they drop to 350th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they also lead the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on their home court. Manhattan is surrendering +4.1 more points per 100 possessions when at home as opposed to being on the road. The Jaspers have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaspars look to avenge a 74-72 loss at Sacred Heart on February 2nd — and they have played 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Sacred Heart Pioneers (719) and the Manhattan Jaspers (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Le Moyne Dolphins (306567) and the Central Connecticut Blue Devils (306568) in the Quarterfinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Le Moyne (9-22) has lost four games in a row after their 85-79 loss at Stone Hill as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Central Connecticut (23-6) has won 12 games in a row after a 55-48 victory at Wagner as a 7-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Devils are the top seed in this conference riding the nation’s longest active winning streak — and this bestowed them the right to host all of their games as long as they advance in this tournament. They only made 37.8% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 contests. But Central Connecticut has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of those 8 games following a victory Over the Total when playing at home. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow Northeast Conference rival — and they have played 5 of these 6 games Over the Total when playing at home following a win against a conference opponent. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total following a win on the road. They return home where they are making 49.8% of their shots which is resulting in 78.3 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +5.6 more PPG when playing at home — and they lead the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are scoring +2.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — but they are also surrendering +5.7 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. The Blue Devils have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. They have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs as a double-digit favorite. Le Moyne has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road after a loss to a Northeast Conference rival. And while they have played nine straight Overs, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Dolphins rank 359th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they are a solid offensive team that has made 48.1% of their shots in their last five games. Le Moyne leads the conference in both getting to the free throw line and their 54.2% effective field goal percentage. The Dolphins have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Le Moyne wants to avenge an 84-75 loss at Central Connecticut as a 12.5-point underdog on February 27th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Le Moyne Dolphins (306567) and the Central Connecticut Blue Devils (306568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (643) and the Colorado State Rams (644). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (13-17) has lost five of their last six games after their 77-71 loss to UNLV as a 2.5-point underdog last Tuesday. Colorado State (20-9) has won five straight games after their 93-66 victory against Utah State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans rank ninth in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in 79.4 Points-Per-Game. San Jose State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Now they go back on the road where they rank 272nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are surrendering +6.6 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They rank 283rd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.5%. They are allowing their opponents to make 47.7% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 75.7 PPG. The Spartans do score +4.6 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 41st in the nation by nailing 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. San Jose State has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. They have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog overall. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Colorado State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the  Total after a victory against a conference rival. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home after a win by 20 or more points. They rank second in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making 53.4% of their shots in their last five contests. They stay at home where they rank 51st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +10.1 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are making 49.9% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 80.3 PPG. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.

FINAL TAKE: San Jose State looks to avenge a 72-50 loss at home against Colorado State back on December 31st — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss of 20 or more points. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (643) and the Colorado State Rams (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (865) and the Houston Cougars (866). THE SITUATION: Kansas (19-10) saw their two-game winning snapped in a 78-73 upset loss against Texas Tech as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (25-4) has won eight games in a row after their 73-64 win against Cincinnati as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks allowed the Red Raiders to make 45.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games and second worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Kansas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Now they go back on the road where they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are giving up -4.7 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home. But the Jayhawks are also scoring a whopping -14.9 points per 100 possessions when away from home. They are only making 43.5% of their shots away from home which is resulting in 69.5 Points-Per-Game which is -6.3 PPG below their overall scoring average. This squad lacks a reliable second-scoring option after big man Hunter Dickinson — and it does not help that they rank 359th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Kansas has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 80% or more of their games. Houston leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their opponents to just 38.2% shooting which is resulting in a mere 58.0 PPG. The Jayhawks have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who are not allowing their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 64 PPG. Houston enjoyed their second-best shooting performance of the entire season going back to their first year game of the year back in November by nailing 53.6% of their shots against the Bearcats. They also saw Cincinnati make 44.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Cougars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a straight-up win at home. They stay at home where they also lead the nation with the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when assessing home court play. They are surrendering -5.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and their guests are shooting just 36.9% from the field resulting in 52.9 PPG. Houston ranks seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.4% of their opponent’s possessions. Like Kansas, the Cougars do not get the free throw line — they rank 338th in free throw rate. They also only make 51.9% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home which ranks 208th in the nation. They do thrive at home by hitting their 3s at a 42.4% clip which is the second-highest clip in the nation — but the Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 31.1% shooting percentage behind the arc when they are playing on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 6 of those 9 games Under the Total when at home. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just 39.2% shooting — and the Cougars have 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas wants to avenge a 92-86 loss in double overtime at home to Houston on January 25th — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Kansas-Houston ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (865) and the Houston Cougars (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alcorn State Braves (306510) minus the point(s) versus the Texas Southern Tigers (306509). THE SITUATION: Alcorn State (9-19) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 71-55 victory against Prairie A&M as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Texas Southern (13-16) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 67-52 loss at Jackson State as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE POINT(S): The records of teams competing in the Southwest Athletic Conference need to be taken with a grain of salt. Alcorn State opened their season with 14 straight losses — but the first 13 games were all on the road against teams outside the SWAC. Analytics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks the Braves’ non-conference schedule as the sixth most challenging in the nation. This is a team much better than their record — as evidenced by a loss in overtime at South Alabama earlier in the season. They have won nine of their last 14 games — and they have won five of their last seven contests. In their last five games, they are making 48.8% of their shots which is resulting in 74.8 Points-Per-Game. The Braves have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win on their home court. And while this is their second game since February 22nd, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing for the second time in eight days. This is just their eighth game at home all season — they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +12.4 PPG. They rank second in the SWAC in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. Alcorn State has covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games when favored this year. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Texas Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They stay on the road where they have a 4-12 record with an average losing margin of -10.0 PPG. They rank sixth in the SWAC in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road in conference play. They rank 347th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they only rank 11th in that metric in conference play. They are only making 40.3% of their shots on the road resulting in 68.3 PPG. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Alcorn State is a good offensive rebounding team that ranks third in the SWAC by pulling down 35.1% of their missed shots — and Texas Southern ranks 10th in the conference by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 33.3% of their missed shots. The Tigers play at the third-fastest pace in the SWAC and they average 62 shots per game. The Braves have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. And while Texas Southern is a good defensive team that holds their opponents to 40.6% shooting, Alcorn State has covered the point spread 5 of their last 6 games against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42.0% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves want to avenge a 66-57 loss at Texas Southern as a 9.5-point underdog on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Alcorn State Braves (306510) minus the point(s) versus the Texas Southern Tigers (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (847) and the UTSA Roadrunners (848). THE SITUATION: Rice (13-16) has lost five of their last six games after their 84-72 loss at Memphis as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. UTSA (10-17) has lost six games in a row after their 96-89 loss at East Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls only made 41.4% of their shots against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Rice has played 6 straight Overs after losing on the road in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing to a fellow American Athletic Conference rival in their last contest. The Owls are 10th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and now they face a Roadrunners team that ranks 355th in the nation in opponent free throw rate so Rice should get the charity stripe plenty of times in this one. Points being scored when the clock is stopped is a great formula for the Over. The Owls stay on the road where they actually lead the nation in getting to the free -hrow line. They rank second in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They also lead the conference by making 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But Rice also ranks 11th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. One of their biggest problems on defense is they rarely force turnovers which means their opponents are usually getting shots off against them. They rank 339th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.1% of their opponent’s possessions — and they are only forcing turnovers in 11.9% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play. The Owls have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage in the 20-40% range — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UTSA allowed the Pirates to make 52.6% of their shots last Sunday. The Roadrunners’ last five opponents are making 47.8% of their shots against them which is resulting in 80.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank 10th in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UTSA has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up loss. They have also played  8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. The Roadrunners return home where they are scoring 80.3 PPG fueled by nailing 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play which is the second-best mark in the conference. But UTSA also ranks 327th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.3%. Additionally, they rank 352nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.2% of their missed shots. Rice is a good offensive rebounding team that ranks 60th in the nation by rebounding 33.8% of their missed shots. The Roadrunners have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. They have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. And in their last 10 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games, UTSA has played 7 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Rice is avenging a 90-84 upset loss at home against the Roadrunners on January 14th as a 4-point favorite — and they have 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (847) and the UTSA Roadrunners (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle University Redhawks (784) plus the point(s) versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (783). THE SITUATION: Seattle University (11-16) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 72-48 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Grand Canyon (21-6) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 85-71 victory against UT-Arlington as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Redhawks stay at home where they have a 9-4 record with an average winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank second in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the home court in conference play. They lead the WAC by making 52.9% of their shots inside the arc. Seattle does several things quite well. They rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line. They rank 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down just 26.5% of their missed shots. They rank 43rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark rises to a 22.7% clip in conference play. The Antelopes are vulnerable in this department as they rank 318th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions when playing on the road. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after beating a fellow WAC rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. The Antelopes are scoring -7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks want to avenge an 83-74 loss at Grand Canyon as a 10-point underdog on January 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Seattle University Redhawks (784) plus the point(s) versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (783). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (764) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (763). THE SITUATION: Texas (16-12) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 86-81 loss in overtime at Arkansas on Wednesday. Georgia (17-11) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 88-83 upset victory against Florida as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas allowed the Razorbacks to make 46.6% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 20 of their 30 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Rodney Terry. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Despite their 12 losses this season, Texas remains on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament — but they need to start registering some victories for the win column again. They have three impressive wins against Missouri, Kentucky, and Texas A&M on their resume. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home for the first time since February 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Longhorns have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +16.0 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 41.1% shooting which is resulting in 67.8 PPG. They are also making 49.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in 83.8 PPG. They rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they are scouring +7.2 more points per 100 possessions when at home. Texas has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played in March. Georgia nailed 53.8% of their shots in their upset win against Florida which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also played their best defensive game in their last three contests after holding the Gators to 40.9% shooting. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They go back on the road where they have a 3-8 record with an average losing margin of -9.4 PPG. They are only making 40.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. While they rank 31st in the nation at home in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 122nd in the nation when on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 26.6% of their shots from behind the arc on the road which drags down their effective field goal percentage to 48.7% — those marks rank 357th and 345th in the nation respectively. They are also too loose with the basketball by turning it over in 22.5% of their possessions on the road. Furthermore, Georgia allows their opponents to pull down 40.1% of their missed shots on the road, ranking 336th in the nation. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB SEC Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (764) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (763). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (842) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (841). THE SITUATION: Portland State (16-12) has lost two games in a row after their 60-58 upset loss at Weber State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Montana State (12-16) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in an 89-85 upset loss against Montana as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State made only 41.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 contests. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. They return home where they have a 10-1 record with an average winning margin of +20.1 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 36.5% shooting at home which is resulting in 60.1 PPG. They also make 51.3% of their shots at home which is resulting in 82.2 PPG. Portland State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record. Even if the Vikings are not shooting the ball well, they have other ways of generating possessions. Portland State leads the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank second in the conference by pulling down 19.8% of their missed shots. Montana State struggles to generate extra possessions. They are last in the Big Sky by forcing turnovers in just 14.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and they also rank last in the conference by pulling down only 21.3% of their missed shots. The Bobcats made 53.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are just 2-13 this season with an average losing margin of -7.3 PPG. They are only making 42.2% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 68.3 PPG. They also allow their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 75.7 PPG. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings look to avenge a 74-73 loss on the road against the Bobcats as a 3.5-point underdog on February 1st. Portland State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Portland State Vikings (842) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Delaware Blue Hens (767) and the College of Charleston Cougars (768). THE SITUATION: Delaware (12-17) has lost four straight games and nine of their last ten contests after their 78-65 upset loss at home against Hofstra as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Charleston (21-8) had their two-game winning streak end in a 64-55 upset loss at Drexel as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Hens made 47.2% of their shots in what was their third straight upset loss on Saturday — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 47.0% of their shots on the season which is resulting in 76.7 Points-Per-Game. They also allowed the Pride to make 52.6% of their shots although that was the best defensive performance in their last three contests. Their last five opponents are making 50.2% of their shots against them. Delaware ranks 343rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Blue Hens have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 straight Overs after suffering an upset loss. They go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 46.4% of their shots resulting in 80.0 PPG. They drop to 354th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are giving up +6.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road rather than at home. But Delaware is one of the better offensive teams in the country. They rank 52nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4% — and that clip rises to 54.9% in conference play. They also rank 36th in the nation by making 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc. They are scoring +8.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than when at home. The Blue Hens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when on the road. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And in their last 9 games with the Total set in the 150s, Delaware has played 6 of these games Over the Total. Charleston only made 37.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Cougars have (somehow) only played 4 games at home in the last three seasons following a loss — and they have played 3 of these games Over the Total. They return home where are making 46.7% of their shots resulting in 82.9 PPG. They rank seventh in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are scoring +7.0 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. But they are also giving up +2.5 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Charleston has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. They have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a fast pace. Charleston ranks 79th in the nation by averring only 16.7 seconds per possession — and the 70.5 adjusted possessions per game that they average ranks 45th most in the country. Delaware ranks 41st in the nation by averaging 16.2 seconds per possession — and the 70.7 adjusted possessions per game mark ranks 37th in the nation. When two teams meet who like to play fast, the pace often gets even quicker as they look to out-run each other. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Delaware Blue Hens (767) and the College of Charleston Cougars (768). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (696) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (695). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (20-7) has lost two games in a row after their 77-69 upset loss against Tennessee as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Vanderbilt (18-9) snapped a three-game losing streak in a 77-72 win against Mississippi as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M only made 39.0% of their shots which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Aggies are not a great shooting team — but they lead the nation in offensive rebounding by pulling down 41.8% of their missed shots. They should dominate the Commodores on the glass tonight since Vanderbilt ranks 171st in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.1% of their missed shots when playing on the road. Texas A&M combines these second-chance scoring opportunities with a stout defense that ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Aggies play for the second time since last Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they have a 12-2 record with an average winning margin of +15.7 Points-Per-Game. They lead the nation by rebounding 45.1% of their missed shots. They also rank 11th at home in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they limit their guests to 37.0% shooting which results in only 61.2 PPG. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Vanderbilt made 46.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. They also held the Rebels to 41.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games and tied for the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Commodores are not a good defensive team — and that makes this matchup with the Aggies even more perilous for them. They rank 74th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their last five opponents made 49.3% of their shots against them resulting in 78.6 PPG. Against SEC competition, they have allowed their conference rivals to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 79.2 PPG. Vanderbilt has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win against an SEC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference foe. They go back on the road where they have a 5-7 record with an average losing margin of -4.3 PPG. They drop to 90th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road with the problem being their half-court defense. The Commodores rank 350th in the nation on the road with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 59.1% They rank 359th on the road with their opponents making 40.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 342nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making 58.1% of their shots inside the arc. Overall, Vandy allows their opponents to make 51.5% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 78.8 PPG. But they are only making 44.5% of their shots on the road including just 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Commodores thrive on defense by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 33rd in the nation. But the Aggies are even better in that area as they force turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 30th in the nation. Texas A&M is vulnerable to being too loose with the basketball as they rank 245th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. But when playing at home in the rugged SEC this season, the Aggies are turning the ball over in just 15.0% of their possessions. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Texas A&M Aggies (696) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (665) and the San Diego State Aztecs (666). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (22-5) had their eight-game winning streak snapped in an 86-78 loss at Boise State as a 4.5-point underdog last Wednesday. San Diego State (18-7) saw their three-game winning streak end in a 79-71 loss at Utah State as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lobos nailed 50.9% of their shots against the Broncos last week which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed Boise State to make 48.1% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort in their last 17 contests. New Mexico has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference opponent. They are a very good defensive team that ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they rise to 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency where they are giving up -2.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than at home. They are also scoring -2.9 fewer Points-Per-Game on the road than at home. The Lobos have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Aztecs are outscoring their opponents by +8.2 PPG — and New Mexico has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. And while San Diego State is holding their opponents to 37.3% shooting which is resulting in 63.1 PPG, the Lobos have played 4 straight Unders against teams who are not allowing more than 64.0 PPG. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 119th in the country and sixth in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They return home where they drop to 217th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -5.8 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also surrendering -1.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home. San Diego State has played 8 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s including all four of those games this season. Furthermore, the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State leads the Mountain West Conference in offensive rebounding rate — but New Mexico ranks 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down just 25.8% of their missed shots. And while the Lobos outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Aztecs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (665) and the San Diego State Aztecs (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Morgan State Bears (306527) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306528). THE SITUATION: Morgan State (11-15) has lost three of their last four games after their 87-81 loss at home to Howard as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Norfolk State (19-8) has won seven straight games after their 79-63 victory at Coppin State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after alloying 85 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 51.9% of their shots which is resulting in 92.2 Points-Per-Game. They rank 362nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are surrendering +9.3 more points per 100 possessions when on the road versus when playing at home. Morgan State has played 8 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Norfolk State has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total after winning their last game. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their 8 games this season played with one day of rest, they have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They return home where they are making 53.5% of their shots which is resulting in 87.6 PPG — and they are scoring +1.6 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. But they are also surrendering +7.1 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans are making 49.0% of their shots this season — and the Bears have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots from the field. 8* CBB Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Morgan State Bears (306527) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (846) minus the points versus the UMKC Roos (845). THE SITUATION: South Dakota State (18-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 77-68 upset loss against North Dakota State as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. UMKC (10-17) has lost two games in a row after their 78-66 upset loss against Nebraska-Omaha as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JACKRABBITS MINUS THE POINTS: South Dakota State only made 39.4% of their shots against the Bison on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. They should shoot the basketball better this afternoon. The Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games this season following an upset loss. South Dakota State is 12-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +18.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in 70.4 PPG. They also nail 51.9% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 88.5 PPG. The Jackrabbits ranks tenth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.6% of their home court. They are converting 60.4% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 14th in the nation. South Dakota State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. UMKC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games this season after suffering an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss to a fellow Summit League rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two games in a row. On the road, they have a 2-12 record with an average losing margin of -8.4 net PPG. They are only making 38.4% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. They are also allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 72.8 PPG. Where the Roos are particularly vulnerable against the Jackrabbits is their interior defense. UMKC ranks 309th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 54.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank 310th in the nation on the road with their opponents making 56.3% of their 2-pointers. The Roos do rely on crashing the glass as they rank second in the Summit League by pulling down 35.2% of their shots in conference play. But good luck to them for getting second-chance scoring opportunities against this South Dakota State team that leads the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.1% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: UMKC wants to avenge a 65-64 loss at home against South Dakota State as a 4-point home underdog back on January 23rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in their 2 opportunities to avenge a loss at home this season. The Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games at home this season when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when laying double-digits. 10* CBB UMKC-South Dakota State CBS Sports Network Special with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (846) minus the points versus the UMKC Roos (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (761) and the Northern Colorado Bears (762). THE SITUATION: Idaho (12-15) has won two of their last three games after their 83-78 upset victory at home against Northern Arizona as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Northern Colorado (20-8) has won three of their last four games after their 95-76 victory against Eastern Washington as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vandals held Northern Arizona to just 40.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. But Idaho still ranks 349th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an upset victory. They stay on the road tonight — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total after playing their previous game on the road. They rank 348th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home where they are surrendering +4.5 more points per 100 possessions than at home. They are allowing their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 77.6 Points-Per-Game. But the Vandals are a good offensive team that ranks third in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 95th in the nation in effective field goal percentage — and they rains 3-point attempts by ranking 18th in the nation by taking 48.0% of their shots from behind the arc. On the road, they rank 66th in the country by making 35.6% of their shots from downtown. Idaho has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their 15 games away from home this season Over the Total. Northern Colorado nailed 66.7% of their shots on Thursday — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points including five of their six games this season. Furthermore, the Bears have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. Northern Colorado is a dynamic scoring machine that leads the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% based on them making 58.5% of their shots inside the arc which is the ninth-highest mark in the country. At home, they are making 54.5% of their shots which is resulting in 86.1 PPG — and they score +5.8 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 60.3% with them ranking 10th by nailing 40.6% of their 3-pointers and ranking eighth by making 61.5% of their shots inside the arc. But the Bears may get lackadaisical on defense when playing at home where they rank 320th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They give up +11.2 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Their guests make 55.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 340th in the nation. More importantly against this Vandals team, they allow their visitors to make 36.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 301st in the nation. Northern Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. They have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Idaho has allowed their last five opponents to make 48.4% of their shots which has resulted in 78.4 PPG — and they allow their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots for the season. The Bears have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 45% or more of their shots including six overs in those eight games this season. The Vandals have played 13 of their last 20 games on the road Over the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Colorado is avenging a 77-76 loss at Idaho as a 4-point favorite back on January 23rd. The Bears have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (761) and the Northern Colorado Bears (762). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Morgan State Bears (306634) plus the points versus the Howard Bison (306633). THE SITUATION: Morgan State (11-14) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 92-78 upset win at UNC-Central as a 9-point underdog on Monday. Howard (11-15) won for the third time in their last four contests in an 86-82 win against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINT(S): Morgan State has won four of their last six games — and they should build off the momentum of their victory earlier this week. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset victory against a fellow Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home for the first time since February 1st where they have an 8-3 record with an averaging winning margin of +15.0 net Points-Per-Game. They are nailing 53.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 87.2 Points-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to 40.4% shooting at home. They rank second in the MEAC with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.8%. They rank second in the conference with their conference visitors only making 49.8% of the shots inside the arc. They also rank 58th in the country by holding their guests to just a 29.8% clip from behind the arc — and their MEAC rivals are shooting only 29.4% from 3-point range on their home court. Morgan State has covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 boarded games at home this season. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em including four of those five circumstances this season. The Bears rank 58th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line when playing at home. And while they sacrifice defensive rebounding for getting out on the fast break, the Bison are last in the MEAC by pulling down only 26.7% of their missed shots. Both of these teams play at a fast pace — these two combined for 79 possessions each in Howard’s 100-95 victory back on January 11th. More on that game below — but the Bison’s lack of size will probably be a problem in this rematch. Howard does not have a starter over 6’6 — and only one of their players in their regular rotation is taller than that. Morgan State has two players in their rotation at 6’9 or taller — and they rank third in the conference by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots. The Bison rank 318th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots — and their conference opponents are rebounding 34.7% of their missed shots. Howard nailed 55.9% of their shots in their win on Monday which was the second-best shooting effort in their last nine contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after beating a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a win against an MEAC foe. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival. They go back on the road where they are just 3-10 with an average losing margin of -10.8 PPG. They are allowing their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots on the road resulting in 81.6 PPG. They rank 350th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road with their opponents making 36.3% of their 3s and 58.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 271st and 331st in the nation. The Bison are the top offensive team in the MEAC but they only make 34.8% of their shots from downtown when away from home. Their fast pace leads them to get too loose with the basketball — they rank 338th in the nation by turning the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions on the road. Morgan State is third in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.8% of their opponent’s possessions when playing at home. Howard has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Howard outlasted the Bears last month by shooting 60.0% of their shots and nailing 9 of their 12 shots from behind the arc in what was their second-best shooting effort of the season. But Morgan State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road including all five of those circumstances this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Morgan State Bears (306634) plus the points versus the Howard Bison (306633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wright State Raiders (872) minus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (871). THE SITUATION: Wright State (13-15) has lost two games in a row after their 79-68 upset loss at Green Bay as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northern Kentucky (12-15) has lost two of their last three contests after their 92-70 loss at Milwaukee as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: There are not many things more humiliating in college basketball this season than losing to Green Bay who have been an utter disaster under the guidance of the devastatingly under-qualified rookie head coach Doug Gottlieb who did not even have the sense of self to quit his day job as a loudmouth radio host at Fox — but Wright State did gift the Phoenix their third victory of the entire season on Sunday. They shot only 39.3% from the field in that setback which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Head coach Clint Sargent certainly had an attentive locker room in practice this week. As it is, the Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after an upset loss to a fellow Horizon League rival. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home after losing two games in a row. This team has lost both its games that got decided in overtime — and they have lost another five games decided by three points or less. Only one of their victories has been by three points or less — so Sargent’s team probably is better than their overall record under .500 suggests. They return home where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +9.8 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 41.7% shooting from the field — and they are giving up -4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home than on the road. They also nail 49.9% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in 80.4 PPG. Wright State is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. They rank 14th in the nation by making 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark improves to a 40.8% clip when playing at home, ranking ninth best in the country. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. Northern Kentucky has lost eight of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to a Horizon League rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 gams after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a loss by 20 or more points. They stay on the road for the third straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last two games on the road. On the road, they have a 3-9 record with an average losing margin of -8.7 PPG. They only make 40.4% of their shots when on the road — and they rank 293rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency away from home. They also allow their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 76.3 PPG. Of particular concern is their perimeter defense as the Norse rank 351st in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Northern Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who make 37% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Norse want to avenge a 78-70 upset loss at home against Wright State as a 1.5-point favorite on January 18th. Northern Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities for revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Wright State Raiders (872) minus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (871). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (14-11) has lost three games in a row after their 87-77 upset loss at home against Middle Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Sam Houston (10-16) snapped a seven-game losing streak in a 78-76 win against Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 38.6% of their shots which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Hilltoppers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while they had won three games in a row before this recent losing streak, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they have an 11-3 record with an average winning margin of +10.7 Points-Per-Game. The Hilltoppers are holding their guests to just 39.9% shooting which is resulting in 73.1 PPG. They rank 26th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.6% when playing at home — and they rank tenth in the nation by limiting their visitors to just a 26.5% clip from behind the arc when playing at home. This presents a major problem for the Bearkats since they only hit 46.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road, ranking 302nd in the nation. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when continuing a home stand. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games this season against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Sam Houston ended their seven-game losing streak by making 53.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests. But the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their previous game. They go back on the road where they rank 234th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.8% of their shots which results in 79.1 PPG. They only make 42.9% of their shots on the road. Overall, they have a 3-13 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.2 PPG. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 150s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range including all seven of those games this season. Western Kentucky plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They rank third in the nation by averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession — and their games rank sixth in the country by averaging 72.9 possessions per game. The extra possessions help favorites cover when laying the points. And while the Hilltoppers limit their opponents to 41.4% shooting, the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams with a 75-66 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on January 25th — and Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. 10* CBB Sam Houston-Western Kentucky ESPNU Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (737) and the Utah State Aggies (738). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (12-15) has lost three games in a row after their 73-58 victory as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. Utah State (22-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-79 loss at New Mexico as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans only made 38.8% of their shots last Friday which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last 12 contests. San Jose State has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total after losing their last game. And while this is their second game since last Tuesday, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last eight days. San Jose State struggles on the defensive end of the court where they rank 210th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and ninth in the Mountain West Conference. On the road, they are allowing their opponents to make 46.9% of their shots which is resulting in 73.8 Points-Per-Game — and they drop to 256th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road by surrendering +5.1 more points per 100 possessions than when they are playing at home. On the road, they are also scoring +5.7 more points per 100 possessions than at home — and while they rank just 195th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they improve to 70th in that metric when playing on the road. They are nailing 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road, ranking 23rd in the nation — and the Aggies struggle in defending the perimeter when playing at home as will be shown below. The Spartans have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Utah State has allowed their last five opponents to make 46.5% of their shots which has resulted in 79.4 PPG. They rank 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 18th in the nation and tops in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. At home, they improve to 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency where they score +5.6 more points per 100 possessions than on the road. They are making 51.1% of their shots at home resulting in 87.9 PPG. The Aggies thrive inside the arc where they rank seventh in the nation by making 58.8% of their shots -- and they make 60.2% of their 2-pointers when playing at home. They also lead the Mountain West Conference by making 37.5% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. But Utah State allows their guests to make 54.6% of their shots from inside the arc and 35.9% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 328th and 289th in the nation respectively. Their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency drops to 190th in the nation when playing at home where they give up +7.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home than on the road. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total when the Total is set in the 140s. They have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a losing record — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when favored by double-digits. And while the Spartans allow their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots, Utah State has played 5 straight Overs against teams who allow their opponents to make 45.0% or more of their shots from the field.  

FINAL TAKE: San Jose State wants to avenge an 85-78 loss at home to the Aggies as a 9.5-point underdog back on January 7th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when playing with revenge on their minds. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (737) and the Utah State Aggies (738). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). THE SITUATION: Central Arkansas (7-20) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 84-83 upset win in overtime at home against North Florida as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Queens University-Charlotte (16-11) has lost two of their last three games after their 86-80 loss in overtime at Eastern Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears held North Florida to 37.3% shooting which was their second-best defensive effort in their last 24 contests. Central Arkansas has played 4 straight Overs on the road after pulling off an upset victory. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. The Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation that ranks 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 12th in the Atlantic Sun Conference in that metric. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is resulting in 82.4 Points-Per-Game which is +5.0 more points per 100 possessions than what they are allowing at home. In conference play, they are allowing their home hosts to make 42.9% of their 3s and 62.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 11th and 12th in the Atlantic Sun. They are also scoring +8.7 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. While they do not shoot the ball well, they do rank third in the conference by pulling down 34.6% of their missed shots. Central Arkansas has played 19 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total including eight of their last 13 games this season. They have played 18 of their last 29 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Queens University has scored 80 or more points in four of their last five games — and while two of those games went into overtime, they scored at least 72 points in regulation time in those two games. In their last five games, they are making 50.4% of their shots which has resulted in 80.6 PPG. The Royals have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including seven of their last 10 games Over the Total this season. They have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss in conference play — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Sun rival. And while Queens has played three straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They return home where they are making 45.8% of their shots resulting in 82.3 PPG which is +5.5 more PPG than their season average. They rank third in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home against Atlantic Sun rivals. But they also rank eighth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency against conference opponents — and they are giving up +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. The Royals have played 15 of their last 22 games at home Over the Total including seven of their last 10 games. They have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home with the Total set in the 140s. Central Arkansas surrenders 77.4 PPG this season — and Queens has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who give up 77 or more PPG. They have played 8 straight games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears want to avenge a 64-47 loss at home to Queens back on February 5th in an outlier low-scoring game for both teams. The Royals’ lone game in their last five where they did not score at least 72 points in regulation or 80 points overall was that contest. And those 47 points were the fewest that Central Arkansas scored all season — they only made one of their 21 shots from behind the arc in that game. The Bears score 70.0 PPG this season — and they should make more 3s tonight against this Queens' team that ranks 10th in the Atlantic Sun by allowing their guests to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Bears have played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total when avenging a loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). THE SITUATION: Delaware State (13-10) has won five games in a row after their 90-69 victory against Howard as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Norfolk State (17-8) has won five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 75-63 victory at Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Delaware State has made 48.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 91.4 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which is resulting in 78.3 PPG which is +6.9 more points than their season average. They rank 309th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are surrendering +8.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They are also scoring +2.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Hornets have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Part of Delaware State’s problems on defense is that commits too many fouls. They rank 319th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. The Hornets pull down 35.9% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Spartans rank 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 34.6% of their missed shots. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a fellow Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference rival. They lead the MEAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their last five games, they are making 51.1% of their shots which has resulted in 84.0 PPG. At home, the Spartans are making 53.4% of their shots which has resulted in 86.8 PPG. They are scoring +2.4 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. They rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they are surrendering +7.9 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home. And while they have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1%, the Hornets have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Delaware State wants to avenge a 73-64 loss at home against Norfolk State on January 6th. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 7 revenge opportunities Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). THE SITUATION: Troy (16-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 74-56 victory at UL-Lafayette as a 10-point favorite on Thursday. Arkansas State (19-7) ended their two-game losing streak with a 101-67 victory against Southern Mississippi as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 gamers Under the Total after a win of 15 or more points. Troy ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay on the road where they rank 37th in the nation in that metric. They are holding their opponents to -5.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.2% shooting inside the arc when playing on the road. They are holding their opponents to 41.3% shooting on the road which is resulting in just 63.7 Points-Per-Game. But they are only making 40.6% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.8 PPG. They only make 27.3% of their shots from behind the arc on the road, ranking 350th in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 46.8% on the road ranks 288th. The Trojans have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Troy does lead the nation by pulling down 41.1% of their missed shots when playing on the road — and that serves to slow the game down since they extend their possession with a reset shot clock more than two times per five possessions. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home Under the total after beating a conference opponent. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank fourth in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also rank 40th in the nation in that metric when playing at home. They are holding their guests to just 38.2% shooting when playing at home which is resulting in 63.8 PPG — and they are giving up -7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when at home versus playing on the road. The Red Wolves rank 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% — and that mark improves to a 43.2% percentage when they are playing on their home court, ranking 11th in the nation. They hold their visitors to just a 25.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking fifth lowest in the nation. But this team possesses just a 49.9% effective field goal percentage on offense this season which ranks 276th in the nation. Arkansas State has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored.  

FINAL TAKE: These two played on January 11th when the Red Wolves made 9 of their 23 shots from behind the arc and the Trojans nailed 10 of their 25 shots from 3-point range in Arkansas State’s 84-78 victory. Look for the Regression Gods to appear with both teams not shooting as well from distance tonight. The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Red Wolves are outscoring their opponents by +9.5 PPG, Troy has played 5 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arkansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Saturday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). THE SITUATION: Maine (16-9) has won eight of their last nine contests after their 73-50 victory against UMBC as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Vermont (14-11) has won three straight games after their 79-59 victory against New Hampshire as a 14.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Maine should build off their recent momentum in this showdown between the second and third-place teams in the America East conference. The Black Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after beating an America East rival including six of their seven contests this season. This is a dangerous team that does a couple of things very well to put them in a position to win all of their games. First, Maine ranks 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions — and that clip rises to a 23.0% mark in conference play. The Catamounts are vulnerable in this area as they rank 184th in the nation by turning the ball on 18.4% of their possessions when they are playing away from home. Second, the Black Bears lead the America East by making 39.5% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a 40.1% clip when playing at home which is the 17th-best percentage in the nation when it comes to home courts. Vermont ranks 295th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3s when they are playing away from home. Maine has a strong home-court advantage where they have an 8-1 record with an average winning margin of +23.2 net Points-Per-Game. According to one of the power ranking metrics I use, the Black Bears rank 207th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to a 143rd rank when playing on their home court. They are making 51.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in 80.9 PPG — and they are scoring +7.3 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also holding their guests to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in only 57.7 PPG — and they are giving up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on their home court. Maine has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last seven games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. The Black Bears enjoy a strong situational edge in this contest after getting the week off — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the second time in eight days. Vermont has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with just one day of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. The Catamounts made 46.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. But this is not a good offensive team that ranks 331st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 42.2% of their shots which is resulting in 66.2 PPG — and it gets even worse when they are playing on the road where they only shoot 38.4% from the field and score just 60.4 PPG. They are scoring -8.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Vermont ranks 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they drop to 272d in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have a 5-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.3 PPG. The Catamounts have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 130s including all three of their games on the road this season. Vermont leads the America East in defense rebounding percentage — but that is not a helpful tactic against Maine who only pulls down 20.5% of their missed shots in conference play since they sacrificed second-chance opportunities for getting back on defense.

FINAL TAKE: The Catamounts won the first meeting between these teams by a 55-49 score as a 2-point home favorite back on February 1st — but the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when avenging a loss. 25* CBB America East Game of the Year with the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (892) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (891). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (12-14) has lost two games in a row after their 69-66 loss at home to San Diego State as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday. Nevada (14-10) has won three games in a row after their 94-69 victory against Fresno State as a 16-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. They start at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State is a good shooting deep from behind the arc — they rank 74th in the nation with a 36.1% shooting percentage from 3-point land while improving that mark to a 37.4% clip in conference play which ranks second in the Mountain West Conference. The Wolf Pack are vulnerable against good outside shooting teams as they rank 337th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road. Nevada made 61.3% of their shots against the Bulldogs on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them all season. This is the Wolf Pack’s second game since last Tuesday, February 4th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the second time in eight or more days including failing to cover the point spread in four straight games on the road under those circumstances. Nevada is just 4-6 on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s. The Wolf Pack thrive in defending their defensive glass — they rank 18th in the nation in rebounding percentage on that end of the court. But this will not help when playing the Spartans who sacrifice pounding their offensive glass for getting back on defense. And while Nevada leads the Mountain West Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions, Nevada only turns the ball over in 16.5% of their possessions in conference play.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolf Pack won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 18th by a 75-64 score — but San Jose State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 opportunities for revenge including six of their last seven games when they are playing on their home court. 8* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (892) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). THE SITUATION: Marist (16-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-71 upset loss against Iona as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Siena (11-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 61-59 upset loss at Rider on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road against a fellow Metro Atlanta Athletic Conference rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home after a loss to a conference foe. Siena returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Saints rank 254th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are surrendering 73.0 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are giving up +2.4 more points per 100 possessions at home as opposed to on the road. They are scoring 77.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are scoring +5.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and that dynamic should extend the length of this game since the Red Foxes rank ninth in the conference in defensive free throw rate. Siena has played 5 straight games Over the Total when playing at home and is listed in the +/- 3-point range. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Red Foxes rank 188th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% when playing on the road based on the strength of their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation by nailing 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Marist has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are attempting to avenge a 72-67 loss at Marist back on January 31st — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (832) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (831). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (20-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 85-67 upset loss at home against UC-San Diego as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. UC-Santa Barbara (16-8) has won three games in a row after their 76-72 win against Hawai’i as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine comes off their worst game of the season on Saturday. They allowed the Tritons to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They only made 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contest. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of the 4 games in the last two seasons after giving up 85 or more points in their last contest. UC-Irvine is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are holding their opponents to 38.9% shooting which is resulting in 66.0 Points-Per-Game. They also rank 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 25.7% of their missed shots. They stay at home where they have an 8-1 record this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.9 PPG. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. UC-Santa Barbara allowed the Rainbow Warriors to make 52.1% of their shots on Saturday which was the third time in their last four games where they gave up 49.2% or worse shooting from the field. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after beating a Big West Conference rival in their previous game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row including failing to cover the point spread in those last five circumstances. They go back on the road where have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 140s. UC-Santa Barbara leads the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — but the Anteaters also lead the conference in defensive effective field goal percentage while ranking 12th in the nation overall with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.5%. When playing at home, UC-Irvine ranks second in the nation by limiting their opponents to 38.2% shooting inside the arc. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who are not giving up more than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine is outscoring their opponents by +9.8 PPG — and UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including all four of those games this season. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games at home against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (832) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (831). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). THE SITUATION: Dayton (16-8) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 73-68 loss to VCU at home as a 1-point underdog on Friday. Fordham (11-12) has won three of their last four games after their 80-79 upset win against Rhode Island as a 1.5-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Flyers held the Rams to 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games and tied for their best defensive performance in their last 20 contests. They also only made 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Dayton has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their 7 games after a loss this season Over the Total. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on they go back on the road where they are giving up 74.7 Points-Per-Game which is +5.7 more PPG than their season average. While they rank 145th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall this season, they fall to 174th in that metric when playing away from home. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions on the road — and they are also scoring +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Flyers rank 53rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency overall this season — and they improve to ranking 27th in that metric when playing away from home. They lead the Atlantic 10 Conference by making 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 20th in the nation by making 38.2% of their 3-pointers when away from home. The Rams struggle with their perimeter defense when playing at home where they rank 327th in the nation by allowing their guests to nail 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Fordham also ranks 13th in the Atlantic 10 in defensive free throw rate — and Dayton ranks third in the Atlantic 10 in getting to the free throw line. The Flyers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total played in February. Fordham only made 43.5% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Rams have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after an upset victory. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with five or six days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. Fordham stays at home where they are scoring 81.9 PPG which is +6.1 more PPG than their season average. They are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. And while the Rams rank 14th in the Atlantic 10 and 225th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they fall to 243rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. They are giving up +2.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home as opposed to on the road. Fordham has played 20 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total including 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total this season — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. In conference play, the Rams are allowing their opponents to make 47.6% of their shots which is resulting in 79.9 PPG. While the national average for possession length is 17.6 seconds, Fordham ranks 27th in the nation with their opponents averaging only 16.7 seconds per possession — a hidden metric that helps explain why they have played three straight Overs. The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Fordham has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Dayton has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (655) and the Texas A&M Aggies (656). THE SITUATION: Georgia (16-8) has lost six of their last eight games after their 76-75 upset loss against Mississippi State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Texas A&M (18-5) has won five of their last six games after their 67-64 upset victory as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs allowed Mississippi State to make 55.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. Georgia has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss.  They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court. They go back on the road where they are only making 40.9% of their shots which is resulting in 65.0 Points-Per-Game which is -11.0 fewer PPG than their season average. They are scoring -8.7 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road as opposed to on their home court. The Bulldogs turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions ranking 296th in the nation. Now they face an Aggies team that ranks 33rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Texas A&M nailed 45.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests. This is the Aggies' second game since February 1st — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight or more days. They return home where they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court. They surrender -2.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em — and Georgia has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (655) and the Texas A&M Aggies (656). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). THE SITUATION: Illinois-Chicago (15-10) has suffered three-straight upset losses after a 79-67 loss at Southern Illinois as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (12-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 74-56 win at Valparaiso as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Maybe playing the role of the underdog will get Illinois-Chicago going again. They have already pulled off two impressive upset victories against Yale and Drake this season. They only make 41.5% of their shots against the Salukis which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Flames have been a better team playing away from home this season. One of the power rankings systems I consider ranks them 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — but they improve to ranking 98th in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an 8-5 record on the road with an average winning margin of +2.7 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +5.9 points per 100 possessions when playing from home while holding their opponents to -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. They rank 21st with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9% away from home — they rank 50th by making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc and 30th with a 55.2% shooting clip inside the arc. They also rank 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 26.0% of their missed shots when they are playing on the road. Illinois-Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as a dog or as a pick ‘em. Murray State nailed 49.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. They also held the Crusaders to 35.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last eight contests. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after playing on the road in their previous game. Murray State has been a better team on the road this season where they rank 130th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 251st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they play at home. They are just 5-5 on their home court where they rank 209th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their guests are making 52.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 274th in the country. They are giving up +3.0 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and they are scoring -5.5 fewer points per 100 possessions. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games at home including 7 of their 9 games this season. Three have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Murray State has not been a reliable favorite lately since they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when favored including 10 of their last 15 games when laying the points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. And while Illinois-Chicago is making 47.4% of their shots, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games against teams making 45% or more of their shots from the field.

FINAL TAKE: The Flames won the first meetings between these two teams in a 97-93 victory at home as a 3-point favorite on January 15th — and Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss this season. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southeastern Louisiana Lions (306661) plus the points versus the Incarnate Word Cardinals (306662). THE SITUATION: Southeastern Louisiana (14-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 81-79 victory against Lamar as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Incarnate Word (11-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 67-65 loss at McNeese State as a 15.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Southeastern Louisiana should continue their recent stretch of playing good basketball in the Southland Conference. The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory against a fellow conference rival. On the road, they have a winning 8-6 record — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road. Southeastern Louisiana ranks 50th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 19.5% of their opponents’ possessions. They also rank 43rd in the country by holding their opponents to a 30.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc when they are playing on the road. Furthermore, in conference play, the Lions rank second in getting to the free throw line — and the Cardinals rank eighth in the Southland Conference in defensive free throw rate. Southeastern Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s. Incarnate Word held McNeese State to a 49.2% shooting percentage on Monday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last five games. The Cardinals have allowed their last five opponents to make 52.9% of their shots. They rank 10th in the Southland Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.1% while ranking 11th in both opponent 3-point shooting and opponent 2-point shooting inside the arc. They are pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking fourth, but the Lions lead the Southland Conference by holding their opponents to rebounding just 28.6% of their missed shots. Incarnate Word has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home including five of their eight games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Southeastern Louisiana won the first meeting between these two teams by an 86-63 score as a 3-point favorite at home on January 25th. Under head coach Shane Heirman, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 opportunities to avenge a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Southeastern Louisiana Lions (306661) plus the points versus the Incarnate Word Cardinals (306662). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (744) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (743). THE SITUATION: Texas (15-7) has won three of their last four games after their 89-58 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (13-8) has won two of their last three games after their 89-79 upset victory as an 8-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas managed to blowout the Tigers over the weekend despite allowing them to make 45.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Longhorns nailed 56.3% of their shots to easily win that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after hitting at least 55% of their shots in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. And in their last 5 games at home after a win by 15 or more points, they have covered the point spread in 4 of those games. Texas returns home where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of +21.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 39.2% shooting on their home court which is resulting in just 63.5 PPG. They are also nailing 51.7% of their shots from the field at home which is resulting in 85.3 PPG. The Longhorns rank 18th in the nation by making 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc — and they face a Razorbacks team that ranks 325th by allowing their opponents to make 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games last home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 140s. Arkansas made 55.2% of their shots on Saturday against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-up victory. They stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -2.6 PPG while sporting a losing 4-5 record. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. In SEC play, they are only making 39.0% of their shots which is resulting in 67.4 PPG which is -9.4 fewer points than their season average. The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: The Razorbacks are outscoring their opponents by +8.2 PPG — but Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Longhorns are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — and Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams who are scoring +8.0 or more PPG including five of their last seven games on the road. 10* CBB Arkansas-Texas ESPN2 Special with the Texas Longhorns (744) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (743). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (701) and the James Madison Dukes (702). THE SITUATION: Troy (15-7) has won four games in a row after their 87-50 victory against UL-Monroe as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. James Madison (14-9) has won four games in a row after their 68-54 victory against Old Dominion as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dukes have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on their home court. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home against fellow Sun Belt Conference rivals. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total at home when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. James Madison is scoring -1.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and they are holding their guests to -10.4 fewer points per 100 possessions on their home court. Furthermore, the Dukes have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Troy has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after beating a fellow Sun Belt Conference rival in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are scoring -4.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than at home — but they are also holding their opponents to -2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Trojans have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Trojans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Dukes have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* CBB Wednesday Daily O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (701) and the James Madison Dukes (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (15-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-79 upset loss to Arkansas as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi (16-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 92-82 loss at home against Auburn as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Razorbacks to make 55.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mark Pope should get his team to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court tonight. Kentucky has played 6 straight Unders after allowing 85 or more points this season — and those six opponents averaged only 71.8 Points-Per-Game with four of those teams shooting no better than 41.8% from the field and only one shooting better than 43.9%. Going back to his previous tenure at Utah, Pope’s teams have played 8 of their 10 games in his coaching career Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Pope’s focus is mostly on the offensive end of the court — but he does have this Kentucky team playing good perimeter defense. The Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road where they are holding their opponents to 27.6% shooting from behind the arc which is the tenth-best mark in the country. Kentucky does not have a proven true point guard healthy for this showdown tonight with LaMont Butler doubtful with an injury — he is scoring 13.2 Points-Per-Game and adding 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Kerr Kriisa would be the backup point guard but the former West Virginia and Arizona transfer is also out with an injury. The Wildcats are shooting 48.5% from the field this season which is resulting in 87.2 PPG — but those numbers drop to 43.0% shooting on the road which is resulting in 76.1 PPG. They score -8.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home — but they do at least give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. Kentucky has played 7 of their 11 games this season Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and this includes all 4 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. In Pope’s 21 games on the road in his coaching career with the Total set in the 150s, 14 of those games finished Under the Total. Ole Miss allowed the Tigers to make 48.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Rebels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Ole Miss ranks 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay at home where they are holding their guests to 39.8% shooting which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. They are giving up -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also scoring -13.7 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road — and they may be undermanned tonight as well. Senior guard Matthew Murrell is questionable with an injury — he is their second-leading scorer with his 11.2 Points-Per-Game clip. As it is, the Rebels rank just tenth in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Mississippi has played 8 of their 10 games at home this season Under the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Ole Miss’ Chris Beard is known as a defensive guru in his nine seasons as a head coach — and this is just his ninth game in his career when the Total was set in the 150s in a home game. In those 8 home games with the Total set from 150 to 159.5, 5 of them finished Under the Total. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Idaho State Bengals (884) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (10-10) has won two games in a row and four of their last six contests after their 87-71 victory against Idaho as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Northern Colorado (16-6) has won two games in a row and ten of their last 11 contests with an 87-69 victory against Northern Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINT(S): Idaho State should build on their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They stay at home where they have a 6-2 record with an average winning margin of +10.4 net Points-Per-Game. One power rankings system I look at places the Bengals as the #217th team in the nation — but they rise to #176 when playing on their home court. They are scoring +3.6 more points per 100 possessions on their home court while giving up -3.0 fewer points per 100 possessions. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting which results in 64.4 Points-Per-Game. Idaho State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games with the Total set in the 140s. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation as they pull down 40.1% of their missed shots. And while the Bears allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow their opponents to make 45.0% or more of their shots from the field. Northern Colorado played their best defensive game in their last five contests by holding Northern Arizona to just 40.3% shooting. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. Northern Colorado has a 10-1 record when they are playing at home — but they are just 6-5 when playing away from home where they are scoring -6.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. They are great shooting team inside the arc that ranks sixth in the nation by making 60.1% of their 2-pointers. But the Bears lack a Plan B — especially on the road. They rank 335th on the road in getting to the free-throw line. They only pull down 23.5% of their missed shots away from home, ranking 326th in the nation. They nail just 29.9% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 293rd. And they only force turnovers in 16.9% of their opponent’s possessions on the road, ranking 176th. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of rather last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s. And while Idaho State outrebounds their opponents by +10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals look to avenge a 93-92 loss on the road against the Bears on January 4th as an 8-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Idaho State Bengals (884) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (16-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 72-63 upset loss to South Dakota State as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. St. Thomas (17-6) has won two games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 86-71 victory against Oral Roberts as a 13-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 37.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 contests. That performance was truly an outlier for a team that tanks second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. North Dakota State leads the nation by nailing 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are no slouches inside the arc where they rank 24th by making 56.8% of their shots. But on the other end of the court, they rank just 280th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bison have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss. They have paled 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. On the road, they are making 48.0% of their shots — including 42.5% of their 3-pointers which also leads the nation — resulting in 81.5 Points-Per-Game. More importantly, they are scoring +6.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home. They are also allowing their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 75.1 PPG. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. North Dakota State has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. St. Thomas made 57.1% of their shots last Wednesday which was the 12th time this season when they made at least 50% of their shots. The Tommies rank third in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. They are making 39.0% of their shots from behind at the arc and 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking eighth and ninth in the nation. But like their opponents this afternoon, they are a below-average defensive team that ranks 251st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. St. Thomas has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They stay at home where they are making 51.3% of their shots resulting in 91.3 PPG. They rank second in the country by making 43.4% of their shots from behind the arc. They are scoring +4.6 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home — but they are also surrendering +9.0 more points per 100 possessions in their home games. Their guests are nailing 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 330th worst mark when assessing home court splits. The Tommies have played 17 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in February. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: In their last 22 games against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field, St. Thomas has played 15 of these games Over the Total — and they have played seven of their last nine games Over the Total under these circumstances. 25* CBB Sunday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (828) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (827). THE SITUATION: Tulane (11-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-56 loss to Memphis as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Tulsa (9-12) has lost three of their last four contests after their 78-68 loss to UAB as a 7-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane only made 36.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. They should shoot better this afternoon considering they are making 45.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 79.3 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home for this one where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +16.1 net Points-Per-Game. Tulane has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. The Green Wave ranks 131st in the nation in net efficiency according to one power ranking system — but they rise to 104th in the nation when they are playing on their home court. They are scoring +4.6 more points per 100 possessions when at home. Even better, they are limiting their guests to -7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home. Tulsa held the Blazers to a 44.6% shooting clip on Wednesday which was the best defensive performance in their last three contests. But the Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They go back on the road where they have lost six of their eight games this season — and they are getting outscored by -9.0 PPG. Tulsa has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s. The Golden Hurricane is making only 38.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 69.6 PPG. They are scoring only 94.5 points per 100 possessions on the road which not only ranks 344th in the nation but also -11.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than their scoring efficiency on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 8* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tulane Green Wave (828) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (14-8) has lost three games in a row after their 62-58 upset loss at home against UL-Monroe as a 15.5-point favorite on Thursday. UL-Lafayette (6-15) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 70-61 upset victory at Texas State as an 11.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars got upset by the Warhawks in two straight games despite being a double-digit favorite in both contests. Dissecting what happened in those losses is straightforward. Head coach Richie Riley has two main ways for his team to generate offense: fast break opportunities coming off turnovers and 3-point shooting. South Alabama leads the Sun Belt Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and they maintain that clip for all their games which is the 38th-best mark in the nation. The Jaguars matched that 20.8% mark in their first meeting with UL-Monroe last Monday which resulted in 14 turnovers — but they only made 10 of their 39 (25.6%) shots from behind the arc in a 77-66 loss. In the rematch, South Alabama made 40.4% of their shots overall which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they still only made 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. Perhaps even worse, they only forced eight turnovers from just 12.9% of the Warhawks’ possessions in scoring just 58 points. The Jaguars have not scored more than 66 points in four straight games. But they do play good half-court defense when not forcing turnovers. UL-Monroe shot 38.3% from the field in Thursday’s game which was the best shooting effort against South Alabama in their last six games. The Jaguars rank 20th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.3% shooting inside the arc. They lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference by holding their opponents to just 28.5% shooting from behind the arc. South Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 37.2% shooting which results in 62.3 Points-Per-Game. In terms of adjusted efficiency, they are giving up -6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when away from home than at home. But they are only making 40.4% of their shots on the road which is generating only 66.0 PPG. Furthermore, they are scoring -2.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. They rank eighth in the nation by attempting 50.1% of their shots from behind the arc this season — but on the road, they are only converting on 31.0% of these shots which ranks 252nd in the nation. The Jaguars have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in hostile environments this season. They have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, South Alabama has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their gamers. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in February. UL-Lafayette made 43.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Like UL-Monroe, UL-Lafayette should limit the Jaguars' scoring opportunities on the fast break. They rank second in the Sun Belt by only turning the ball over in 13.7% of their possessions in conference play. They also do a good job of defending the perimeter. When playing at home, their guests make only 31.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 122nd, but they do an even better job of getting their opponents off the 3-point line. They rank 35th in the nation by limiting their visitors to taking just 33.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. South Alabama is vulnerable against good outside shooting teams — they allow their opponents to take 59.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the nation. But the Ragin’ Cajuns only make 31.5% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home which ranks 276th in the nation. In their 12 games at home, they are making just 39.3% of their shots resulting in 64.6 PPG. UL-Lafeyette has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on their home court including eight of their 11 games this season. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: This game should be played at a slow pace which should contribute to what shapes up as a rock fight. South Alabama’s games average 63.2 adjusted possessions per game which ranks 345th in the nation. Their half-court defense makes it tough on their opponents who are averaging 18.9 seconds per possession which is the sixth-highest rate in the country. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 204th in the nation with their games seeing 66.6 adjusted possessions — and their opponents are averaging 18.2 seconds per possession which ranks 327th. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). THE SITUATION:  Longwood (16-6) has won three games in a row after their 80-54 win against USC Upstate as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Gardner-Webb (8-12) has lost three of their last four games after a 61-53 upset loss against UNC-Asheville as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Longwood played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding USC Upstate to just 37.0% shooting — and the 54 points they surrendered were the fewest of the season. But the Lancers had given up at least 74 points in five straight games before that performance. Longwood has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. The Lancers are scoring 78.6 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored at least 77 points in six straight contests. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.8% of their shots which is resulting in 76.2 PPG which is +5.5 PPG above their season average. They are also scoring 107.0 Points Per 100 Possessions away from home which is +5.9 Points Per 100 Possessions above their scoring rate at home. Longwood has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total away from home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Lancers scoring attack is at their best when they are getting to the free throw line — they rank fifth in the nation in free throw rate. The Runnin’ Bulldogs pressure the basketball — they rank 21st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.7% of their opponents’ possessions. But the flip side of this aggressiveness is that they rank 254th in defensive free throw rate. When these styles of teams clash the result is either a turnover or a foul over 50% of the time — and that means plenty of scoring opportunities either on the fast break or at the charity stripe (when the clock is stopped). Gardner-Webb only made 32.0% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They also held UNC-Asheville to 36.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last eight days. They stay at home where they are making 47.7% of their shots resulting in 77.4 PPG. They are also scoring +5.7 more Points Per 100 Possessions when playing at home as opposed to playing on the road. Gardner-Webb has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while they are making 46.2% of their shots on the season, the Lancers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Longwood has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in games with the Total set in the 140s — and Gardner-Webb has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). THE SITUATION: BYU (13-6) has won two games in a row after their 80-52 victory as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (13-6) has won two games in a row as well after their 76-61 win at Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has seen two recent developments that are very encouraging for them moving forward. First, freshman forward Egor Demin broke out on Saturday with 15 points, five rebounds, and seven assists. The potential lottery pick in the NBA draft demonstrated his potential in November but hit a wall the last two months. He takes on the role as a point forward who can facilitate the offense of the Cougars’ balanced scoring attack. Second, BYU has played much better on defense since Mawot Mag was inserted into the starting lineup for the thin freshman jump shooter Kanon Catchings. Mag is a 6’7 senior who offers the team a more physical presence. BYU has held their last four opponents to 1.00, 0.99, 1.02, and 0.87 Points-Per-Possession which is far below the 1.04 PPP average scoring efficiency in the Big 12. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games after a win by 15 or more points. BYU’s improved play on defense deserves attention since they are already such a good offensive basketball team. They are scoring 80.4 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. After making 58.5% of their shots against Colorado, they nailed 57.1% of their shots against the Bearcats — and it was the third time in their last four games they made at least 51.9% of their shots. Two of the Cougars' losses this season were in overtime including their most recent loss against Utah. They stay at home where they have a 10-1 record with an average winning margin of +26.3 net PPG. They are making 51.1% of their shots at home which is resulting in 87.4 PPG — and they are holding their opponents to 38.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.1 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This is a great matchup for them. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. The Bears crash the glass — but the Cougars rank fourth in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 23.0% of their missed shots. They also rank 34th by pulling down 35.4% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 224th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.8% of their misses. BYU also ranks 26th by nailing 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home — and the Bears rank 331st by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of the shots from behind the arc. Baylor enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last three games against the Utes despite only making 43.9% of their shots — they failed to make more than 39.7% of their shots in their previous two games. Two of their wins this season were in overtime — so while these teams have identical records, it could easily be different results. They were down to a six-man rotation on Saturday given a concussion to Jeremy Roach and an ankle injury to Langston Love. Both players are questionable to play tonight — so the Bears may be reduced to a six-man rotation against tonight in another high-altitude game on short rest. As it is, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Bears are 12-1 at home — but they are just 5-5 on the road where they are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG. They rank 323rd away from home with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.0% — and they rank 348th by allowing these opponents to make 38.8% of their 3-pointers. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: BYU is outscoring their opponents by +14.2 PPG — and they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court. Baylor ranks 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Bears are outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG — but the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-3) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 84-80 upset loss at UC-Riverside as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Hawai’i (12-7) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-66 loss at UC-Davis as a 2-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine allowed the Highlanders to make 45.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. They had held their previous five opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they are holding their guests to 34.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.7 Points-Per-Game. They have won all six of their games at home by an average winning margin of +23.0 PPG. They also generate +4.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on their home court. UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in all 5 of their boarded home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing for the second time in three days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time on the road in three days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130s. This is a terrible matchup for the Rainbow Warriors. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation — but UC-Irvine does not prioritize crashing the glass. Hawai’i ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line — but the Anteaters rank third in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Rainbow Warriors rank 38th in the nation by making 56.3% of their shots inside the arc — but UC-Irvine ranks fourth in the nation on their home court with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.5% — and they rank second in the nation with their opponents only hitting 38.8% of their shots inside the arc at home. Hawai’i outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Anteaters have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. UC-Irvine outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 RPG — and the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including 4 of their last 5 games on the road. To compound matters, Hawai’i ranks 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions — and it gets even worse on the road where they turn the ball over in 23.4% of their possessions which is the 350th worst rate in the nation. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Anteaters are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including five of those seven games this season.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games this season at home laying 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when laying 3.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Month with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-7) has won three of their last four games after their 95-79 upset win against Wright State as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. Northern Kentucky (9-11) has lost four games in a row after their 78-70 upset loss at home against Wright State as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers allowed the Raiders to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 contests. Milwaukee still ranks third in the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their opponents to 44.7% shooting when playing on the road in hostile environments. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They stay on the road where they are holding their opponents to -4.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than they are giving up when they are playing at home. But they are scoring -8.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in hostile environments than at home. They are scoring 74.5 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -4.6 fewer PPG than their overall scoring average. Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games when favored or a pick ‘em including all four of those games this season. They have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January. The Panthers lead the Horizon League by pulling down 42.5% of their missed shots in conference play — and second-chance opportunities contribute to lower-scoring games since both teams end up with fewer overall possessions. Milwaukee also leads the conference in getting to the free throw line — but the Norse lead the Horizon League in defensive free throw rate so the Panthers are not likely to reach the 24 shots per game from the charity stripe they average. Northern Kentucky has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite to a Horizon League rival. This is their second game since last Wednesday — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 41.4% shooting which results in 65.7 PPG. They give up -5.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions at home versus on the road in hostile environments. The Norse has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 130 to 139.5. But scoring is an issue for this Northern Kentucky team that makes only 42.2% of their shots resulting in 69.3 PPG — and they are only scoring 71.7 PPG when playing at home. They rank ninth in the Horizon League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in conference play.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are only making 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc this season — and the Norse have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 31% of their 3-pointers. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (737) and the Mississippi Rebels (738). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (14-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 68-57 victory as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi (13-3) saw their four-game winning streak end in an 84-81 loss in overtime at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies made only 42.6% of their shots against the Tigers — but that was still their best shooting effort in their last three games after only making 39.0% and 38.9% of their shots in their previous two contests. They did get Wade Taylor back on Saturday — he joins Zhuric Phelps in a dynamic one-two scoring punch. But Texas A&M’s offense can stagnate after that with no other players averaging double-digits in points. The Aggies get much of their scoring from crashing the glass — they lead the nation by pulling down 42.9% of their missed shots. Extending offensive possessions with offensive rebounding tends to lead to lower-scoring games since both teams end up with fewer overall possessions. On the road, Texas A&M only makes 39.3% of their shots which results in 72.5 Points-Per-Game which is -3.9 fewer PPG than their season average. They rank 56th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 113.6 when playing away from home — and that represents a drop of -2.6 points per 100 possessions versus their 116.2 overall Adjusted Offensive Clip. Head coach Buzz Williams’ team plays outstanding defense. They rank 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to just 39.0% shooting. On the road, they rank 19th in the nation with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 94.3. This is the Aggies second game since last Tuesday — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in January. Mississippi allowed the Bulldogs to 44.6% shooting which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Rebels rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to 40.5% shooting. Ole Miss has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just 38.7% which is resulting in 60.5 PPG. But while the Rebels rank 12th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 122.6, they drop to 188th in the nation when playing at home with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 106.0. Ole Miss has played 6 of their 8 games at home Under the Total this season -- and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 140 to 149.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots — and the Aggies have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. 10* CBB Texas A&M-Ole Miss ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (737) and the Mississippi Rebels (738). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). THE SITUATION: Providence (9-9) had won two games in a row before their 84-64 loss at Creighton as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday. Villanova (11-7) has lost two games in a row after a 69-63 loss at Xavier as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 43.1% of their shots against the Musketeers — and their 63 points were the second-fewest that they have scored all season. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home again for the first time since January 8th. They are making 51.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 81.2 Points-Per-Game. They are also nailing 43.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home. Villanova lives by-the-3 and dies by-the-3 — and things shape up for them very well tonight to score a pile of points. They rank fourth in the nation by making 41.1% of their 3-pointers — and now they host a Friars team who ranks 320th in the nation away from home with their opponents making 38.1% of their shots behind the arc. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Villanova ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are only 169th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Providence ranks 106th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they are not likely to slow the Wildcats down tonight. They allowed the Bluejays to make 51.6% of their shots which was the second bad defensive game they have played in their last four games after UConn made 56.3% of their shots against them less than two weeks ago. But the Friars only made 38.2% of their shots against Creighton which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. Providence has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to a Big East rival. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. The Friars should score their share of points by crashing the glass tonight. They rank 39th in the nation by pulling down 35.2% of their missed shots — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Wildcats. Villanova ranks 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.6% of their missed shots — and their Big 12 opponents have pulled down 29.2% of their misses. Providence has played 10 of their last 15 games away from home Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as a dog this season. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And in their last 12 games in January, they have played 9 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Friars are holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting this season — but Villanova has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). THE SITUATION: James Madison (9-8) has lost two games in a row after their 86-66 loss at Appalachian State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Marshall (10-8) has won three of their last four contests after their 81-69 victory against Georgia Southern as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: James Madison comes off what was probably the worst game of their season. They only made 34.8% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games and second-lowest of the season. They allowed the Mountaineers to nail 53.8% of their shots as well which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Dukes should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +16.0 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to just 39.3% shooting which is resulting in 64.5 PPG — and they are making 48.7% of their shots at home which is generating 80.5 PPG in front of their home fans. James Madison has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Dukes are a good rebounding team that is outrebounding their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. They rank 77th in the nation by pulling down 33.7% of their shots. They also rank 39th by holding their opponents to 26.3% of their missed shots. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all seven of those games played on the road. The Thundering Herd thrives at 3-point defense — but that is not an area of strength for the Dukes. Marshall shot 50% from the field in their win against Georgia Southern which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games this season after winning at home in their last game. The other thing that Marshall does well is getting to the free throw line where they lead the Sun Belt Conference and 41st in the nation. But they are last in the conference by converting on only 62.9% of their shots at the charity stripe. Interior defense is a concern for this team as they are last in the Sun Belt with their opponents making 55.9% of their shots inside the arc. They have lost all six of their true road games by an average losing margin of -12.8 PPG. They are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.0% of their shots which is resulting in 79.5 PPG — and they are only making 39.0% of their shots and scoring 66.7 PPG. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games as an underdog including five of their six games this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd won the first meeting between these two teams with an 80-78 victory as a 1-point home favorite on January 9th — but the Dukes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is with the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711) in the Jumpman Invitational. THE SITUATION: Michigan (8-2) had won seven games in a row before their 89-87 upset loss to Arkansas as a 4-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic on December 10th. Oklahoma (10-0) has won their first ten games of the season after their 80-65 victory against Oklahoma State on a neutral court in Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan is a talented team under first-year head coach Dusty May. The Wolverines currently rank 22nd in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. They are also battle-tested with five of their ten games being played away from Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor. Their two losses to Wake Forest and then the Razorbacks were by four combined points. Their signature win was in Madison against Wisconsin in a true hostile environment — and Pomeroy ranks the Badgers as his 35th team in the country. They also beat Iowa which ranks 45th by Pomeroy. The Wolverines lost to Wake Forest in Greensville. They won their multi-team event in Fort Myers. May got the Michigan job by achieving great success at Florida Atlantic including a run to the Final Four two years ago. His style of play is effective because it prioritizes seizing additional possessions. The Wolverines rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 54th in the nation. These tactics create a reliable Plan B if their shots are not falling. But the Wolverines are an efficient team on offense. They present one of the most challenging starting lineups in the country with two seven-footers. Danny Wolf is a 7’0 transfer from Yale and the 7’1 Vladislav Goldin came over with May from FAU. These two already have terrific chemistry together and this is one of the main reasons why Michigan is making 61.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. The Wolverines are turning the ball over more than they should be — their 21.4% turnover rate is the 335th worst in the nation. This is worrisome against a Sooners’ team that ranks 19th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponent’s possessions — but that is why the point spread is so low. I am not as concerned about this because the source of their turnovers is from their big men rather than their guards — so they are not quite as vulnerable to full-court presses which is important since the top two steal artists for Oklahoma in their starting five are guards. The Wolverines also play outstanding defense — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arkansas nailed 50% of their shots against them which was Michigan’s worst defensive effort of the season. While Wake Forest made 46.4% of their shots against them in May’s second regular season game as head coach, no other team made more than Iowa’s 41.6% shots against them. May’s teams in his coaching career have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after giving up 85 or more points in their last game. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Oklahoma’s best win this season was against an Arizona team that Pomeroy ranks at 30th. Their second-best victory was against a Louisville team that Pomeroy ranks 59th. Pomeroy rates the Sooners’ strength of schedule at 315th in the nation with five of their opponents ranking 266th or worse. For comparison's sake, Pomeroy ranks the Wolverines’ schedule as the 48th most difficult so far this season with five of their opponents in his top 101 teams — and they have only played one team ranked worse than 231rd according to his metrics. I suspect this is the game where Oklahoma’s bubble is burst on their unbeaten season as they do not match up well with Michigan. They rank 254th by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.8% of their missed shots. They also rank 204th with their opponents making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc. Their ability to force turnovers will be mitigated by the Wolverines’ significant size edge with two twin towers. The Sooners do not have a player in their starting five taller than 6’7 — and while head coach Porter Moser has three players 6’10 or taller on his bench, relying on them may not be the optimal strategy. Michigan out-rebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home against teams who out-rebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wolverines rank 52nd in the nation by assisting on 58.7% of their field goals — and they average 17 Assists-Per-Game. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who average 16 or more Assists-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: May’s teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games in his career against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Maine Black Bears (306533) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (306534). THE SITUATION: Maine (6-5) had won two games in a row before their 87-72 loss at Fordham as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. Duquesne (2-7) has won two of their last three games after their 80-66 win against Delaware as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: As long as Doug Gottlieb is still at Wisconsin-Green Bay, the title of most unqualified head coach in Division I college basketball is taken — but the Dukes’ rookie head coach Dru Joyce III would be a contender for this moniker. After being an assistant at Cleveland State for four years, Joyce III was promoted to associate head coach at Duquesne in the last two years before he replaced the retiring Keith Dambrot in the offseason. Joyce’s father and brother are both high school coaches in Ohio. Oh, and Joyce is a close friend of LeBron James after being teammates together on the same high school team. The results are not encouraging so far. After losing their first seven games, the Dukes finally got off the Schneid with victories against Old Dominion and Delaware — although both those teams only rank 327th and 232nd in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. The offense lacks movement and too often devolves into a “my turn, your turn” slog. Duquesne ranks 271st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win at home. This is their second game since December 3rd — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing for the second time in eight or more days. At home, Duquesne has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Maine only made 39.4% of their shots against the Rams on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Fordham to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They should play better tonight -- and the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after losing on the road in their last game. This is their second game since December 3rd as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for just the second time in eight or more days. Maine is a solid team in the third season under head coach Chris Markwood. The Black Bears ranked 51st in returning minutes (from a 15-16 squad) — and they rank 86th in Division I experience. They have quality wins against Elon and Brown, which currently rank 145th and 176th in Pomeroy’s rankings (for comparison's sake, Maine ranks 220th and Duquesne ranks 218th in those rankings). The Black Bears rank in the top half of Division I by ranking 126th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They thrive in forcing turnovers — they rank 37th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. The Dukes are vulnerable since they are turning the ball over in 18.0% of their possessions, ranking 192nd. Duquesne likes to force turnovers as well at a 20.1% rate — but Maine ranks 106th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.3% of their possessions. The Dukes turn the ball over 12 times per game — and the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not turn the ball more than 14 times per game. Maine has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record including four of their five games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Additionally, it will not hurt that the Black Bears rank third in the nation by converting on 81.5% of their free throws.

FINAL TAKE: Maine makes 45.5% of their shots while holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting. The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots and limit their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with Maine Black Bears (306533) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (306534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). THE SITUATION: UConn (5-3) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 99-45 victory against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 40.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baylor (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 91-60 victory against New Orleans as a 38-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn suffered a disastrous three-game run in the Maui Invitational last week — but those losses deserve context. They lost in overtime against Memphis after some controversial officiating. The refs then played a role the next night in a one-point loss against Colorado. After those two emotional losses, they came out flat in their third game in three days against a Dayton team that ranks 32nd in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Unquestionably, head coach Dan Hurley has some work to do with his team’s play on the defensive end of the court after all three of those teams made at least 50% of their shots — losing Donovan Clingan, Tristan Newton, and Stephon Castle from last year’s team is a challenge. But now Hurley has had a week to get to work on fixing these issues. They held Maryland-Eastern Shore to just 30% shooting which was a season-best for them defensively. Perhaps this team is due for a visit from the Regression Gods? They do rank 27th  in the nation by keeping their opponents off the 3-point line as just 32.5% of their opponent’s shots from behind the arc — but these opponents are nailing 36.3% of these shots, ranking 298th. And while the Bears rank 38.1% of their shots from 3-point range, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are making at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Additionally, UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 43 games after beating their previous opponent by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after scoring 85 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing 55 or more points. Back on their home court, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games including four of their five games at home this season. This is a good matchup for UConn. Baylor struggles on the defensive of the court where they rank 74th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bears’ opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%, ranking 231st. They are allowing their opponents to make 41.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 355th. They are also letting their opponents make 52.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 209th — and the Huskies rank third in the nation by making 63.9% of their 2-pointers. UConn feasts on teams like this. Baylor allows their opponents to make 47.4% of their shots overall — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Baylor has lost to their two best opponents, Gonzaga and Tennessee. Their best win was against St. John’s — and it took two overtimes. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home as the dog. And while the Huskies are giving up only 63.3 Points-Per-Game, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are not allowing more than 64 PPG. UConn should have a big edge on the glass tonight. While the Bears rank 10th in the nation by pulling down 39.5% of their missed shots, the Huskies rank 21st by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.8% of their misses. But on the other end is where UConn should dominate. They rebound 35.9% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 211th by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.6% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies will be without Alex Karaban tonight which is not ideal — but they still have the depth edge against the Bears’ thin rotation that only goes seven or maybe eight deep. UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 42 games against teams outside the Big 12. 20* CBB Baylor-UConn FS1-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.   Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn nailed 10 of their 25 shots (40%) of their shots from behind the arc on Saturday en route to a 50% shooting effort overall. Connecticut made 51.7% of their shots in the Elite Eight against Illinois which was the fourth time in their last five games where they shot at least 50% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after shooting 50% or better from the field in two or more games in a row. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. UConn has won all five of their games by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with one day or less of rest. UConn has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Boilermakers are outscoring their opponents by +14.1 Points-Per-Game, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have all failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after winning five or more games in a row. If there is one area that particularly concerns me about the Boilermakers is their propensity to get sloppy with the basketball. After committing 16 turnovers against the Wolfpack, Purdue is turning the ball over in 17.8% of their possessions when playing on a neutral court, ranking 187th in the nation. I also think there is a big edge in coaching tonight. I think Matt Painter is fine for Purdue — but Dan Hurley is simply at the top of his game right now with the rare mix of combining work ethic with being the top tactician in the game. His teams have always been very good on the defensive end of the court — but he has been tremendous in raising the level of play when his team has the basketball with very tight schemes and formations.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court as a favorite from 6.5 to 12 points. 10* CBB Purdue-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of the court — but I suspect the strength of their play on defense will dictate the flow of this game. Purdue ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are allowing -5.0 fewer points per adjusted possessions. They only made 40.0% of their shots on Saturday — but it was their defense that carried the day as they held the Wolfpack to just 36.8% shooting in their 13-point victory. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. UConn ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. They are giving up -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions in their 11 games played on a neutral court. The Huskies have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a win by 10 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while UConn has made at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and the Huskies have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) and the Connecticut Huskies (672) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama (25-11) has won four games in a row with their 89-82 victory against Clemson as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. Connecticut (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 77-52 victory against Illinois as an 8-point favorite in their Elite Eight contest last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UConn has won all four of their games in the Big Dance by 17 or more points. The Huskies have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Illinois made the decision to attack the rim and not let the presence of 7’2 Donovan Clingan change how they want to play on offense. In hindsight, that decision was a mistake since the Illini made only of their 38 shots in the 22 minutes that Clingan was on the court for a mere 14 points overall during that span. Alabama players and head coach Nate Oats have indicated they will not make that mistake — but that means they will rely on 3-point shooting or midrange shots which is out of character for this Crimson Tide team. The Huskies rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when they are playing on a neutral court (ten games). UConn allows -12.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at a neutral site. Their four NCAA Tournament opponents have made only 18 of their 80 shots (22.5%) from behind the arc — and Northwestern shot the best against them with a 26.7% clip from 3-point range but making only four of their 15 shots. Good defensive teams can slow down this Alabama fast-paced attack. They only scored 74 points against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament — and they only put up 72 points in their victory against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32. The Crimson Tide have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10 or more points. And while the Huskies average 19 Assists-Per-Game, Alabama has played 44 of their last 71 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who dish out 16 or more Assists-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: UConn has played 12 of their last 16 games after 15 games into the season Under the Total when facing a team winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) and the Connecticut Huskies (672). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 77-52 victory against Illinois as an 8-point favorite in their Elite Eight contest last Saturday. Alabama (25-11) has won four games in a row with their 89-82 victory against Clemson as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Even  with their Final Four run, Alabama only ranks 46th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which is far below their ranking of 14th on the season overall. For comparisons sake, North Carolina State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which encompasses their run to win the ACC Tournament. The fundamental problem the Crimson Tide have tonight is their porous defense. They rank 189th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. When playing away from home, their defense ranks 175th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and the +9.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions they give up when away from home is the eighth worst disparity in the nation. Alabama has given up 87 and 82 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing 80 or more points in two roomer games in a row. Both those games finished Over the Total — and the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after playing two or more games Over the Total. UConn has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Huskies have not allowed more than 58 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four or more games in a row. And in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite, UConn has covered the point spread 14 times.

FINAL TAKE: UConn has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the Big Dance — and they have ten games in a row in the NCAA Tournament by 13 or more points. 10* CBB Alabama-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the  Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.         

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) and the Purdue Boilermakers (674) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And while they only scored 21 points in the first half of that game, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last contest. Head coach Kevin Keatts will want to slow this game down — not only because they are a big underdog but to also protect D.J. Burns from not getting into foul trouble. Look for Keatts to full-court pressure against the Boilermakers as well — not necessarily to force turnovers but simply to slow Purdue’s offensive attack down and get them out of rhythm. The Boilermakers score 83.5 Points-Per-Game — and NC State has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who score 77 or more PPG. Purdue has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest between contests. And while they have covered all four of their NCAA Tournament games, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have not turned the ball over more than ten times in their four NCAA Tournament games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in four or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue is outscoring their opponents by +14.1 Points-Per-Game — and the Wolfpack have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 or more PPG. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) and the Purdue Boilermakers (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament has included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they have probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expect the bubble to burst tonight — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run has been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo is not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns has thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey does not need to do that — he’s just going to stand there and raise his arms. He doesn’t even draw fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns can attempt to attack the rim — and Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack face an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum is a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he uses Burns to try to defend him, he risks getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men have fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue has played this season. Burns is too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he is spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue plays the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey will have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranks third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he is on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams have attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (681) and the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. But they won the game comfortably because they nailed 56.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. This victory came on the heels of their 85-81 victory at home against Cincinnati back on March 26th — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two or more games in a row where 165 or more combined points were scored. The Sycamores have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 75 or more points were scored by both teams. And in their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in two or more games in a row, Indiana State has played 6 of those games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 47% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games — but they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in three or more games in a row. This victory came on the heels of their 91-68 victory against UNLV in the quarterfinals last Wednesday — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also played 6 straight Unders after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Pirates have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 150s, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (681) and the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And while they have won 10 of their last 11 games with their lone setback being against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference title game that kept them from making the NCAA Tournament (despite 28 wins at the time), they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Indiana State does sacrifice defense for their explosive offense most of the time — but there is one area that head coach Josh Schertz has his team focus on when playing on the defensive end of the court. The Sycamores limit their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots when they are playing away from home which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. Their defensive rebounding will be critical tonight since the Pirates rank 19th in the county by rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots. They held Utah to just five offensive rebounds on Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their opponent to pull down more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Indiana State will win this game with their innovative offense under Schertz. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession. The Sycamores lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% — and they lead the nation by making 62.6% of their shots inside the arc. They fall all the way down 11th in the country with their 38.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they rank sixth in the nation by taking 49.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by the bespectacled Robbie Avila, they have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last eleven games. Seton Hall wants to slow this game down and engage in some bully-ball — but the spacing that the Sycamores engage in on offense takes away their opponent's ability to muck things up in the lane. The Pirates only have a 47.5% effective field goal percentage when on the road which ranks 264th in the nation. If they cannot get second chance opportunities, they will struggle to score points. As it is, they rank only 112th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They do not force turnovers to increase their potential scoring opportunities either — they rank 130th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in seven days.  

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in tournament action — and the Sycamores have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored. While I think the “home court” edge for Indiana State is overplayed a bit since they are playing on a neutral court that both teams just played on, it certainly does not hurt our cause that the crowd will be mostly cheering on the home state Sycamores. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES MINUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall comes into this game with momentum after beating their last two opponents in the NIT by 38 combined points. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. They were one of the three teams this season to beat UConn — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities against this Bulldogs team that struggles to protect their defensive glass. Seton Hall pulls down 35.6% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the nation. Georgia allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the country. The Bulldogs have pulled off two straight upset victories in this tournament to reach the semifinals. The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing a game on the road where both teams scored 75 or more points. They ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently rank 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Another problem they are likely to experience tonight is they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 27.3% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the nation. They also only force turnovers in 16.2% of their opponent's possessions, ranking 240th.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. 8* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently ranks 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Georgia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Their game with Ohio State finished Over the 150-point Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Buckeyes have palled 8 of these games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 56.5% of their shots against the Runnin’ Rebels which was the best shooting effort in their last 19 contests. But the Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on their home court. Seton Hall beat North Texas by a 72-58 score in their previous game in the NIT — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two straight games at home by double-digits. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning two games in a row where they covered as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. On the road, the Pirates score -9.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.            

FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite or a pick ‘em. Georgia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in tournament settings. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State (657) and the Duke Blue Devils (658) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The second half of Duke’s game with Houston was the second slowest second half in terms of tempo of the entire season in Division I college basketball. There is a clear trend of the Blue Devils’ head coach Job Scheyer to slow down his offense — especially when Duke has the lead. Not coincidentally, the slowest team on offense in the Mike Krzyzewski era as the Blue Devils head coach was in the 2009-10 campaign when Scheyer was the starting point guard for that team. After Duke’s final two losses in the regular season and the ACC Tournament to this Wolfpack team saw 71 and 70 possessions, their three games in the Big Dance have seen 60, 64, and 56 possessions. The Blue Devils averaged 66.5 adjusted possessions in the regular season — but that number has dropped to 63.7 adjusted possessions in their last ten games, ranking 344th in the nation. Duke has played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. They have not allowed more than 55 points in this tournament — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. Scheyer benefits from having faced the Wolfpack for the third time since March 4th — the two previous games against him should help inform how they should scheme against him. The Blue Devils have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished under the Total. Duke has played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court. NC State is also playing at a slower pace. After four of their five games in the ACC Tournament had at least 70 possessions (the exception being their game against Virginia who perennially play at one of the slowest paces in the nation), the Wolfpack have not played a game in the Big Dance with more than 69 possessions including their overtime win against Oakland. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, NC State is holding their opponents to -3.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions than what they give up at home. The Blue Devils make 48.0% of their shots this season — but the Wolfpack have played 5 straight Unders against teams who make at least 48.0% of their shots.  

FINAL TAKE: Duke has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. And while the Blue Devils are outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG, the Volunteers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +12 or more PPG. 10* CBB NC State-Duke CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State (657) and the Duke Blue Devils (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke advanced despite making only 40.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. The Wolfpack make 45.1% of their shots — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second time in three days. On the road, the Blue Devils are scoring +2.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. Duke has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games in March. And while NC State is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. NC State played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting. Marquette scored at just an 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate despite ranking 21st in the nation by scoring at an adjusted 1.18 PPP rate. Some of that was just bad shooting luck for the Golden Eagles who could not hit the side of a barn from outside as they only made 4 of 31 shots from behind the arc despite getting tons of open looks. The Wolfpack’s opponents in the Big Dance are making only 23 of their 97 shots from behind the arc. ACC opponents made 36.2% of their 3s against NC State — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding the 23.7% shooting percentage of the Wolfpack’s opponents in this tournament. Of concern for NC State is that they only scored at a 0.97 PPG rate on Friday — and they missed six of their 12 free throws. The Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. They held Marquette to only 24 points in the first half — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games (with six upset victories in that run), NC State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.                                                                                   

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.