Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-09-18 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 212 | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the over Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST). New York is struggling down the stretch, but I think it’ll put up enough of a fight against the Bucks to make the home side sweat a little. The Knicks most recently dropped their fifth straight, a poor 111-87 setback on the road in Portland on Tuesday. The Bucks won’t be taking anything for granted here though, as they come in having lost two straight, most recently a 110-99 setback at home to Houston on Wednesday. Note that so far the Bucks have taken both meetings against New York this year. New York averages 103.8 PPG and it concedes 107.1. Enes Kanter averages 14.3 points and 10.8 boards per game, while Tim Hardaway Jr. adds 17 points a night. Hardaway had 19 points in a losing cause to the Blazers last time out. Milwaukee averages 104.6 PPG and it concedes 105.2. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 27.2 points, 10.2 boards, 4.8 assists, 1.46 blocks and 1.46 steals per game, while Khris Middleton adds 19.7 points and 5.2 boards per night. I’ll point out that New York has in fact seen the total go over the number in five of eight already this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in not surprisingly five of its last seven against poor defensive clubs which concede 106-plus points per night. Milwaukee is desperate for a victory and I look for it to get out and run tonight. Everything points to a faster-paced, higher-scoring over in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 237.5 | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Pelicans/Clippers (10:35 EST). LA sits just a game back of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West, while New Orleans will be looking to improve its playoff positioning. Then Pelicans enter off a 126-109 win over Dallas on Sunday, getting 30 points from Jrue Holiday. Big man Anthony Davis had 23 points, 13 boards, three steals and three blocks. LA is 9-3 in its last 12 after holding on for a 123-120 win over Brooklyn, overcoming a 15-point third quarter deficit. Austin Rivers had a team-high 27 points, while Lou Williams added 21. The first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams is high-scoring offense and very little defense. And that’s why it’s important to note that the Pelicans have in fact seen the total go under the number in three of their last four following a win by ten points or more, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven home games when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220. This can still be a high-scoring affair and stay below this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I expect to happen. This number is indeed just a tad high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 219 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under Lakers/Spurs (9:05 EST). I think the Lakers have a bit of a mental letdown here after winning four straight, most recently smashing the Heat 131-113 on the road on Thursday. The Spurs clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here after falling 121-116 at home to New Orleans in their most recent action. Note that the Lakers posted the lower-scoring 93-81 home win in the first meeting between the clubs this season and in my opinion, all signs point to a similar final combined outcome here as well. LA averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 110. Isaiah Thomas had 29 points off the bench in his teams most recent victory. San Antonio averages only 102.2 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive side by conceding a league best 99.2 PPG. Rudy Gay came off the bench to score 19 points in the loss to the Pelicans. Despite its recent success, I’ll point out that LA has still seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of 13 already this season when playing with two days of rest. In my opinion, everything points to the under as the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 220 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the under between the Pelicans and Spurs (8:35 EST). The 34-26 New Orleans Pelicans are in San Antonio to take on the 36-25 Spurs on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. New Orleans has won six straight behind some amazing play from big man Anthony Davis, but I think he and the surging Pelicans will get slowed down tonight against the Spurs tough defense and their big LaMarcus Aldridge. The Pelicans currently sit 1.5 games behind San Antonio for fourth place in the West. Davis most recently posted 53 points, 18 boards and five blocks in a 125-116 win over the Suns on Monday. San Antonio snapped a four-game slide with a 110-94 win over Cleveland on Sunday and suffice it to say, I expect the team to carry that momentum over here. The Spurs got some very encouraging news as well recently, as Kawhi Leonard is expected to return to the line-up within the next week or so. I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in 25 of its last 42 against the division, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten already this year after playing three consecutive road games and in ten of 12 when playing with two days of rest. The Pelicans beat the Spurs 107-90 at home on November 22nd and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined score here as well. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209 | 109-117 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the under Spurs/Nuggets (10:35 EST). San Antonio enters off a crushing 101-99 loss in Utah just last night and the team just announced yesterday that big man LaMarcus Aldridge would be out until after the All Star Game to give his injured leg some extra time off. Denver was crushed in Houston, but then bounced back with a 123-113 road victory over the lowly Suns on Saturday in its latest action. San Antonio averages 101.5 PPG and it concedes just 98.1. Pau Gasol remains the top point getter right now with 10.6 points and 8.3 boards per game. Denver averages 107.2 PPG and it concedes 106.5. Nikola Jokic averages 16.6 points, 10.4 boards and 5.6 assists per game. I’ll point out that San Antonio has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 23 this year against poor defensive clubs with allow 106 plus points per contest, while Denver has seen the total go under the number in seven of eight already this season when playing with two days of rest. Injured players and the All Star break on the horizon. The last thing the depleted Spurs can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Nuggets. With the visitors putting a concerted effort into trying to slow this one down whenever possible, all signs do indeed point to the under as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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02-12-18 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 | Top | 83-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* TOP TOTAL is the under Suns/Warriors (10:35 EST). The 18-39 Phoenix Suns are in Golden State to take on the 43-13 Warriors on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Phoenix comes in off a 123-113 home loss to Denver, while Golden State pulled away for a 122-105 home win over the Spurs on Saturday. The Suns are scoring an average of 104.4 PPG and conceding 112.6. Elfrid Peyton played decently for his new team in the most recent setback, finishing with 19 points and nine assists. The Warriors average a league-leading 115.9 PPG and they concede 107.9. Klay Thompson was a standout in his team’s most recent victory with 25 points. Phoenix can’t play defense and Golden State is the highest scoring team in the league. I’ll point out though that the Suns have in fact interestingly seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while the Warriors have seen the total dip below the posted number in their last four in the same position. Golden State head coach Steve Kerr recently admitted that his team is “limping towards the finish line” as the season nears the half-way point and the All Star Game. Kerr is likely to rest some of his starters tonight. I think the conditions are now finally right for a bit of a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-18 | Nuggets v. Rockets UNDER 222 | 104-130 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Nuggets/Rockets (8:05 EST). The 29-25 Denver Nuggets are in Houston to take on the 40-13 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this total will sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Houston has won six in a row and ten of its last 11, most recently getting the better of the Heat on Wednesday. Denver has won three in a row, most recently over OKC, Golden State and Charlotte. The Nuggets are clearly playing their best basketball of the season, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into their performance. All three victories came at home. Denver has been a classic “Jekyll and Hyde” team this year, as it’s dropped six straight on the road dating back to December 27th. Houston has looked fantastic of late too, but after going a perfect 4-0 on its road trip, there’s no doubt that this first game back in front of the home town crowd also sets up as a “letdown” spot. James Harden had 41 points in his teams 109-101 win at Miami on Wednesday. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up more as a defensive affair. But I’ll also point out that Denver has in fact seen the total go under the number in five of eight already this year after playing three consecutive home games and in 16 of 25 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight against clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, I think this number is a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-18 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 219 | Top | 103-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over Mavs/Warriors (10:35 EST). The 17-37 Dallas Mavericks are in Golden State to take on the 41-13 Warriors on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Golden State will be particularly motivated here (regardless of who is actually on the court once tip off occurs) as it comes in having lost two straight and three of its last four. Most recently the defending champs fell to Denver and OKC. The Mavs can empathize, as they’re just 1-6 in their last seven following a setback against the Clippers on Monday. Dallas had its chances against the Clippers, but it was outscored 13-0 down the stretch in the eventual 104-101 setback. Veteran Dirk Nowitzki was a bright spot with 12 points in 25 minutes. Kevin Durant is expected in the lineup for the Warriors tonight and he’s been consistent of late, averaging 32.3 points on 68.1 percent shooting over his last three games. These teams come into this one struggling, but I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go over the number in 10 of 17 already this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 12 this season off an upset loss as a favorite. I believe the stage is set for a faster paced affair. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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02-06-18 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 230 | 125-105 | Push | 0 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Thunder/Warriors (10:35 EST). The 30-24 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Golden State to take on the 41-12 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. The Thunder need to muster up some energy tonight as they get ready to play their seventh game in 11 days. OKC won’t be lacking for motivation though obviously in facing the defending champs, but also because it comes in having lost four straight, most recently a listless 108-104 setback to the Lakers. Russell Westbrook had 36 points and nine assists, while Paul George added 26. OKC has for the most part this season been one of the best defensive clubs in the league, but the Thunder come in allowing a whopping 112.8 points during their losing skid. Oklahoma City comes in off a 115-108 loss at Denver on Saturday. Kevin Durant had 31 points and Stephen Curry added 24. GS was outscored 38-25 in the fourth quarter as it ran out of gas down the stretch after playing the second game of a back-to-back. Note that OKC has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 16 after playing to three or more consecutive SU losses, while GS has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 11 already this season off an upset loss as a favorite. The Warriors play with revenge here after falling 118-101 to the Thunder back in mid November. Oklahoma City won’t be rolling over tonight though, as it desperately tries to break its string of shoddy play. When you add it all up, I do indeed feel that this number is a little low. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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02-04-18 | Grizzlies v. Raptors UNDER 207.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the under Grizzlies/Raptors (12:05 EST). The Grizzlies come to town hungry after losing their second straight, most recently a 104-102 setback at Detroit on Thursday. Toronto enters off a blowout win over the Blazers, 130-105 on Friday. Memphis comes in averaging only 99.8 PPG, while conceding 102.5. Big man Marc Gasol leads the nightly charge with 18 points, 8.6 boards and 3.9 assists per game, while Tyreke Evans contributes a team high 19.5 points, five boards and five assists per game (note though that Evans is out for this one.) Toronto averages 111.6 PPG and it concedes 104.2 DeMar DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 24.6 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.6 points, 5.9 boards and 6.6 assists per game. Memphis has lost four of its last five and it clearly doesn’t have the luxury to “look past” the Raptors today. Toronto though could easily be caught looking ahead to its game at home against the East leading Celtics on Tuesday. I believe the situation points to a lower-scoring defensive battle between these non-conference opponents. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-30-18 | Magic v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 107-114 | Push | 0 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Magic/Rockets (8:00 EST). The 14-34 Orlando Magic are in Houston to take on the 35-13 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Orlando comes in off a hard-fought 114-112 setback in Indiana in its latest action, allowing the Pacers to hit 54 percent from the floor, including 27 percent from range. Aaron Gordon led the way for the Magic in the setback with 22 points, 11 boards and four assists, while Evan Fournier added 21 points. In all five players would reach double figures for Orlando as the team collectively shot 54 percent from the floor, including 32 percent from range. Houston has won five of its last six, most recently downing the Suns 113-102 in its latest outing. The Rockets would go on to shoot 44 percent from the floor, including 30 percent from three point land. James Harden led Houston with 27 points, ten boards, eight assists and two steals, while Chris Paul added 17 points and five assists, as six players in total would finish in double figures. I’ll point out that Orlando has already seen the total go over the number in six of nine this year when the total is greater than or equal to 220, while Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 13 of its last 16 as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. These are two teams which love to get out and push the pace and that’s exactly what I expect to see happen. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-22-18 | Heat v. Rockets UNDER 216 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Heat/Rockets (8:05 EST). Miami closes a five-game road trip tonight. There’s no way the Heat can turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with the high-flying Rockets though. The Heat enter off a 106-105 road win over Charlotte on Saturday, while Houston comes in off a second straight win, this time pulling away for a 116-108 home victory over Golden State on Saturday. Miami averages 101.2 PPG and it concedes 101.9. Hassan Whiteside averages 14.5 points, 11.8 boards per game. Already without Dion Waiters, Miami guard Goran Dragic is also a question mark for this one (and if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity.) Houston averages 114.7 PPG and it concedes 106.9. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 31.5 points, 4.8 boards and nine assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Rockets have seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after playing to three or more consecutive “unders,” while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of 15 this season against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. I think the home side has a bit of a mental letdown here after besting the defending champs last time out. And as mentioned off the top, Miami is wounded and tired and will be looking to slow the pace of this one down whenever possible. When you add it all up, this number is indeed just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-18-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 211.5 | Top | 89-80 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under 76ers/Celtics (7:05 EST). Philadelphia comes in on top form as it most recently beat Toronto 117-111 at home on Monday, its fifth win in its last six games. Boston will look to return to form after it fell 116-113 in OT at home to New Orleans to snap its seven game win skein. These teams have played three times this year and Boston has so far taken all of them, including a 114-103 victory in the most recent in London last week. Philadelphia averages 108.6 PPG and it concedes 108.2. Ben Simmons averages 16.8 points, eight boards, 7.3 assists and 1.92 steals per game. Big man Joel Embiid averages 23.8 points, 10.8 boards and 1.94 blocks per outing. Boston averages 103.2 PPG and it concedes just 98.1. Kyrie Irving leads the nightly charge with 24.1 points, five assists and 1.21 steals per game, while Al Horford adds 13.4 points, 7.9 boards and 5.3 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in four of seven already this year following a divisional contest, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine already this year against division opponents and in five of eight off an upset loss as a favorite. I expect these divisional foes to battle tough and for this one to finally fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-15-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Warriors/Cavs (8:05 EST). The 35-9 Golden State Warriors are in Cleveland to take on the 25-16 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this has defensive battle written all over it. Golden State comes in off a thrilling 127-125 win at Toronto, while Cleveland enters having lost seven of ten, including three straight after coughing up a 22-point lead in a 97-95 road setback at Indiana on Friday. If recent history is any precedence, then we should absolutely expect a very defensive battle this evening, because when these teams met on X-Mas Day, it was the Warriors that held on for the lower-scoring 99-92 victory at home. Golden State averages 115.8 PPG and it concedes 109.2. Stephen Curry leads the team with 27.8 points and 6.5 assists per game, while Kevin Durant adds 26.2 points and 7.0 boards per contest. Cleveland averages 110.2 PPG and it concedes 108.5. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points, 8.8 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Isaiah Thomas wasn’t brought into defend anybody for Cleveland, as he’s known for his offensive prowess. However, it will still take some time for Thomas to return to his MVP like form. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor for teams. The Cavs got knocked out of the Finals in five games by the Warriors last year and they’ve already suffered the X-Mas day setback as well to Golden State. The Warriors have been playing at a very high level, but their near second half collapse against the Raptors in their latest action (after having such a big lead at half time) is evidence of fatigue. I’ll point out as well that Golden State has seen the total go under the number in ten of 18 non-conference games already this year, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of 18 this season against clubs with winning records. All signs point to another battle from start to finish between these heated foes. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-18 | Cavs v. Wolves OVER 217.5 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* SHOOTOUT OF THE MONTH is on the OVER between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Cleveland comes in off a 131-127 road win over Orlando on Saturday, while Minnesota snapped a two-game slide with a 116-98 victory at home over New Orleans on Saturday. Clearly the Wolves will be looking to build off that win and get a little redemption here, as Cleveland has won six straight in the series, including both games last year. The Cavs come in averaging 110.5 PPG, while allowing 107.7. LeBron James leads the way with 27.6 points, 8.2 boards and 9.1 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.8 points plus 9.8 boards per contest. Note that Cleveland is second in the NBA in made threes with 12.5 per night. The Wolves average 108 PPG and concede 105.2. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.2 points plus 11.9 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 17.6 points plus four rebounds. I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of seven already this season after allowing 115 points or more, while Minnesota has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of ten when playing the role of underdog. I expect these non-conference opponents to push the pace from start to finish and for this one to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 222 | 131-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Cavaliers/Magics (7:05 EST). Cleveland comes to town angry after its listless 102-88 setback at Boston on Wednesday. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Orlando was most recently crushed 116-98 at home to the Rockets. Note that the Cavs actually play with revenge here tonight as well after they fell 114-93 at home to the Magic at the beginning of the season. Cleveland averages 109.9 PPG and it concedes 107.2. LeBron James leads the way with 27.5 points, 8.1 boards and 9.1 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.6 points plus ten boards per contest. The Magic average 104.5 PPG and concede 110.2. Nikola Vucevic averages 17.4 points, plus 9.3 boards per game. Vucevic is out, but I still believe that the hungry home side will keep this one competitive. Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in 11 of 16 already this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and in six of nine when playing with two days rest, while Orlando has seen the total go over the number in eight of 14 already this season after three or more consecutive SU losses and in five of seven when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220 points. I expect a wide open affair and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-03-18 | Raptors v. Bulls UNDER 216 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Raptors/Bulls (8:05 EST). The 25-10 Toronto Raptors are in Chicago to take on the 13-24 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Raptors come in off back to back wins over the Hawks and Bucks, while the Bulls enter having dropped two straight to the Wizards and Blazers. Toronto looks poised for a letdown here though after its epic 131-127 OT win over Milwaukee last time out, as DeMar DeRozan would explode for 52 points. There’s no doubt that the effort took a lot out of DeRozan, who I think will be caught “looking ahead” to Friday night and the rematch in Milwaukee. Chicago will look to take advantage and to try to avoid a three-game losing streak. But the Bulls also come in off an exhausting affair, falling 124-120 in OT to the Blazers on Monday. I’ll point out that the Raptors have seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after allowing 115 points or more, while the Bulls have seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-22-17 | Hawks v. Thunder OVER 205 | Top | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the over Hawks/Thunder (8:05 EST). The Hawks come in motivated as they’ve lost five of their last six, most recently a 105-95 setback to Indiana at home on Wednesday. OKC on the other hand has shown some signs of life of late with two straight wins, most recently an impressive 107-79 stomping of Utah on Wednesday. The Hawks average 103.1 PPG and concede 108.4. Dennis Schroeder leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points plus 6.7 assists per game, while Marco Belinelli adds 11.5 points and 2.2 assists per contest. The Thunder average 102.1 PPG and concede just 99.5. Russell Westbrook had 24 points, ten boards, seven assists and four steals in his teams most recent victory. Most figured that OKC would run teams off the court with their big three, but so far it’s been its defense which has done the job most nights. However the Thunder have looked better offensively of late and I expect that trend to carry over here as they get ready for a rematch in Utah tomorrow night as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 already this year against teams with winning records, while OKC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in not surprisingly, seven of 13 this season against poor defensive clubs which allow 106-plus points per game. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks UNDER 217 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Cavs/Bucks (8:05 EST). The Cavs enter off their fifth straight win after beating Washington 106-99 on the road on Sunday, while Milwaukee comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost three straight, most recently a 115-111 setback at Houston on Saturday. The Bucks will be eager to get off the schneid here and they’ll be extra motivated as they’ve lost five straight in this series, including both match ups this season. Cleveland averages 111.1 PPG and concedes 107.1. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 27.8 points, 8.5 boards and 9.3 assists per game. Milwaukee averages 104.5 points and concedes 105 per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the team with 29.8 points, 10.5 boards, 4.5 assist, 1.52 blocks and 1.85 steals per game. I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in seven of 11 already this year against clubs with winning records and in nine of 13 after three or more consecutive victories, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last six after three or more consecutive losses. The last thing Milwaukee can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Cavs. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 205 | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Clippers/Heat (8:05 EST). LA comes in off a 100-91 road loss to Washington Friday, while Miami enters off a 104-98 road win over the Hornets last night. LA averages 105 PPG and concedes 106.7. Leading scorer Blake Griffin is out with injury, meaning that Lou Williams (20 points, 4.8 assists) will be leaned upon heavily until his return. The Heat average just 100.3 PPG and concede just 102.7. Guard Goran Dragic averages 17.1 points, 4.1 boards and 4.4 assists per game. I’ll point out that LA has already seen the total go under the number in six of nine non-conference games this year and in eight of 13 on the road, while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of 11 non-conference games and in six of seven against teams with losing records (also in six of 11 home games.) No need to overthink this one. LA has done well without Griffin in the line-up, but his absence will be felt in the second game of the back-to-back. The Heat can defend and have troubles scoring and will also be “gassed” in the second game of hte back-to-back scenario. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics UNDER 198 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the under Jazz/Celtics (7:35 EST). The 13-15 Utah Jazz are in Boston to take on the 24-6 Boston Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Utah’s six game win streak is a thing of the past as the team comes to town off four straight losses. During the six-game win steak the team averaged 115 PPG, but during the slide it’s managed just 98.7. Clearly the Jazz face an up-hill battle today as well in going up against the Celtic’s second ranked defense, a unit which holds opponents to under 98 PPG. The Bulls own the league’s second worst defense and Utah couldn’t even pass the century mark against them. Boston has split its last four games, so won’t be taking anything for granted here. I’ll point out as well that Utah has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 18 after three or more consecutive SU losses and in two of three already this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in both games this season in which it’s allowed 115 points or more in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-17 | Clippers v. Wizards OVER 209.5 | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Clippers/Wizards (7:05 EST). The 11-15 LA Clippers are in Washington to take on the 15-13 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. LA beat Washington 113-112 back on December 9th and suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well as the Wizards look to push the pace and build off their 93-87 win over Memphis on Wednessday. The Clippers come in with plenty of momentum of their own as they’ve won three straight. LA averages 105 PPG and concedes 106.7. Lou Williams averages 20 PPG and will be leaned upon heavily here with star Blake Griffin still sidelined with injury. Washington ranks among the league leaders in most offensive categories, but its weakness is also on the defensive side. John Wall is back in the line-up though and I expect that to continue to pay dividends for the Wizards this evening. Note that LA has seen the total go over the number in eight of 13 already this year as an underdog, while Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in all three games that it’s played in this year after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 211.5 | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Mavericks/Warriors (10:35 EST). The Mavs broke a three-game slide by beating the Spurs 95-89 on Tuesday, while Golden State won its seventh in a row in a 111-104 victory over Portland on Monday. Note that Golden State has won seven straight in this series and claimed the first one over the Mavs earlier in the year 133-103 back on October 23rd. So far Dallas averages 99.9 PPG and concedes 103. Harrison Barnes leads the way with 18.4 points, plus 7.4 boards per game, while Dennis Smith Jr. adds 14.4 points and four assists per contest. Golden State has the No. 1 offense in the league with an average of 117 PPG. The Warriors are below average defensively, allowing 106 per game, but when you outscore your opposition by an average of 11 every outing, defense hardly matters most nights. Kevin Durant leads the Warriors with 25.7 points and 6.9 boards per game, while Stephen Curry adds 26.3 points and 6.6 assits per game. Curry is out with a sprained ankle, but look for the home side’s depth to easily pick up the slack. Also note that Dallas has seen in fact the total go over the number in all three games that it’s played in this year after allowing 90 points or less, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of ten against teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-17 | Blazers v. Heat OVER 202 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the over Blazers/Heat (7:35 EST). Portland is going to be desperate today as it’s dropped five straight, most recently a 111-104 setback on the road at Golden State on Monday. Miami has won two straight, most recently a 107-82 destruction of the Grizzlies on Monday. Note that the Heat also play with double revenge after dropping both games to Portland last season. Both teams have been mediocre offensively this year and each has been decent defensively. Each is loaded with offensive talent though and I think the conditions are finally right for a higher-scoring affair. Note that both teams are dealing with injury issues with their centers. I’ll also point out that Portland has seen the total go over the number in five of eight as an underdog already this season, while Miami has seen the total eclipse the posted number in two of three this year after allowing 90 points or less and in nine of its last 13 after allowing 85 points or less. These are two teams which had big aspirations coming into the 2017/18 campaign, but each sits at just .500. This is an important early game for each of these non-conference foes and I expect a wide-open, faster-paced affair. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | 76ers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | Top | 124-131 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under 76ers/Pelicans (7:05 EST). Philadelphia hung tough in a 105-98 setback in Cleveland just last night. Big man Joel Embiid was sitting that one out, but he will be back in the line-up tonight to face the twin towers in New Orleans (at least one of the two for sure anyways.) I think the visitors are “gassed” tonight and with the focal point of their offense running through their big-man, we can expecting a lot of “half court sets” from the visiting side as it looks to control the pace of this one. The Pelicans have lost five of their last seven, most recently a listless setback to the lowly Kings. New Orleans clearly can’t be happy and it’ll also be looking to take control of this one from the get-go. I’ll point out that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in eight of 14 non-conference games already this year, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 16 as a favorite this season. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 211 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Kings/Pelicans (8:05 EST). The Kings are “gassed” in the final game of their four game trip. Sacramento comes to town off a 111-105 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. The Pelicans won for just the second time in six games with a 123-114 home win on Wednesday night. The Kings average just 95.6 PPG, while conceding 105.5. De’Aaron Fox averages 10.1 points, 3.2 boards and 4.1 assists per game. Buddy Heild adds 12 points per contest. The Pelicans average 109.4 PPG and concede 110.2. DeMarcus Cousins averags 25.9 points, 12.6 boards and 5.1 assists per game. Note though that Sacramento has seen the total go under the numer in two of three already this year after playing three consecutive road games and in interestingly four of seven this season against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight this year against teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 203.5 | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Bulls/Hornets (7:05 EST). These are two teams hungry for a victory and I’m expecting this overall sense of urgency from both sides to translate into offensive production on the floor. The Bulls have lost nine straight, most recently a 98-96 setback to Indiana on Wednesday, while the Hornets enter off a listless 101-87 home setback to the Warriors. But if recent history is any precedence, then we should absolutely expect a higher-scoring shootout between these teams, because when they met back on November 17th, it was Chicago that won 123-120. Chicago averages only 95.7 PPG, while conceding 106.8. Justin Holiday leads the nightly charge with 14.3 points and 4.3 boards per game. Charlotte averages 104.6 PPG and concedes 106.2. Kemba Walker averages 22.7 points and 6.2 assists, while Dwight Howard chips in 15.1 points and 12.1 boards per game. Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in seven of 12 on the road this season, while Charlotte has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of 11 as a favorite this year and in three of four after a loss by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Warriors v. Pistons OVER 212 | 102-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Warriors/Pistons (7:05 EST). The Warriors have won five straight, most recently winning 101-87 in Chicago on Wednesday, while the Pistons have lost four straight, most recently falling 104-100 in Milwaukee on Wednesday night. When these teams played on October 29th, it was Detroit which scored the 115-107 road win. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Golden State averages 117.8 PPG and concedes 106.4. Kevin Durant averages 25.1 points, 6.6 boards and 5.2 assists per game. Detroit averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 102.7. Tobias Harris leads the nightly charge with 19.2 points and 5.3 boards per game, while Reggie Jackson adds 16.4 points, plus 5.5 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Golden State has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 on the road already this year, while Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of ten at home. Golden State wants to cap its road trip with perfect record and to avenge the earlier loss to Detroit. The Pistons are desperate to break their string of shoddy play. When you add it all up and take into account the above trends, this number is indeed a little low in my opinion. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-17 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 112-101 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Super Total is on the over Rockets/Jazz (10:35 EST). The Rockets come in off their seventh staright win, most recently smashing the Lakers 118-95 on Monday. Utah also comes in hot, although it did have its six game win streak snapped in a 100-94 road loss to the Thunder on Tuesday (was the final game of its road trip and the second game of a back-to-back.) These two teams are polar opposites when it comes to their overall “game plan.” The Rockets like to push the pace from start to finish, relying on their offense to outscore their opponents in most cases. The Jazz are a defensive orietned club, but with big man Rudy Gobert out, the game-plan has changed. Utah has been pushing the pace as well and the results have been encouraging. With a night off to rest, I think Utah returns to its recent form which saw it win six straight. Additionally I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go over the number in 42 of its last 75 after scoring 115 points or more, while Utah uas seen the total soar above the posted number in eight of its last 14 against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-17 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 197.5 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). The 11-12 Miami Heat are in San Antonio to take on the 16-8 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Miami enters off a listless 123-95 home loss to Golden State, while the Spurs come in off a 95-92 win over Detroit on Monday. When these teams played in late October, it was San Antonio that punched the 117-100 road victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Miami will be desperate here, as it’s lost three of its last four games. So far the Heat average only 100 PPG, while conceding 103.7. Goran Dragic averages 17.6 PPG. San Antonio averages 100.6 PPG and allows 97. LaMarcus Aldridge leads the team with 22.8 PPG and had 31 in the first victory over Miami. I’ll point out as well that the Heat have seen the total go over the number in two of three already this year against good defensive clubs which concede 98 points or less per contest, while San Antonio has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 16 in front of the home town crowd. Miami will look to take San Antonio out of its comfort zone, which means that the Heat will be pushing the pace from start to finish. This can still be a relatively lower-scoring game and and go over this very low number and that’s exactly what I expect. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-17 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 210.5 | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER-TOTAL on the under between the Sacramento Kings and the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:05 EST). The Kings come to town off a 109-104 road loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, while the Cavs enter off their 12th straight win, a 113-91 road victory over the Bulls on Monday. So far Sacramento averages just 95.7 PPG, while allowing 105.7. Zach Randolph averages 13.9 points, plus 6.3 boards per game, while De’Aaron Fox chips in 10.3 points and 3.3 boards per contest. The Cavs average 111.5 PPG and concede 108.1. LeBron James averages 28 points, 7.9 boards and 8.5 assists per game. Note that Sacramento has seen the total go under the number in ten of 19 this year when playing the role of underdog, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of ten this season after three or more consecutive SU victories. The last thing the Kings can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to win and with three whole nights off to game-plan, I look for the visitors to come out with a concerted effort. When you add it all up, this number is indeed just a little bit high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-17 | Wizards v. Blazers OVER 203 | Top | 106-92 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is the over Wizards/Blazers (10:05 EST). Washington was without star guard John Wall in the line-up last night and the result was a disastrous 116-69 setback in Utah. Wall won’t be playing tonight either, but I’m expecting a much more spirited effort from the under-manned, but hungry Wizards this evening. The Blazers are also out to atone for some recent shoddy play, most recently falling 123-116 at home to the Pelicans on Saturday night. Note that when these teams met on November 25th, it was the Blazers which managed the 108-105 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Washington averages 107.8 PPG and concedes 103.8. Both those numbers however will decline because of Wall’s absence. The Blazers average 103.2 PPG, while conceding 100. Damian Lillard averages 25.5 points and 6.2 assists per game, while CJ McCollum adds 21 points a night. I’ll point out that Washington has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three against teams with losing records, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 25 of its last 45 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest. These are two hungry teams and despite a few injuries, I’m expecting a very wide open affair as each pushes the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-17 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 211.5 | Top | 113-91 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Cavs/Bulls (8:05 EST). The Cavs come to the Windy City having won 11 straight, most recently getting the better of Memphis 116-111 on Saturday. The Bulls enter having dropped eight straight, most recently a 107-106 setback at home to the Kings. The Cavs average 111.4 PPG and concede 108.9. LeBron James is arguably having the best start of his entire career by averaging 28.3 points, 7.9 boards and 8.7 assists per game. The Bulls average just 95.9 points and concede 107. Justin Holiday leads the nightly charge with 14.7 points plus 4.2 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in three of four already this year after a non-conference game, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly, seven of ten this season against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest and in seven of 11 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Cleveland handled Chicago 119-112 back on October 24th and comes into this one red hot. But the Cavs have hit a “vanilla” part of their schedule, with upcoming games against a series of bottom feeders (Kings, Pacers, Hawks.) I think the Cavs come in a bit complacent here. And the last thing Chicago can do is turn this into a “track meet” and expect to win. When you add it all up, this number is just a little high in my opinion. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-17 | Cavs v. Hawks OVER 215.5 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Cavaliers/Hawks (7:35 EST). The Cavs come in as the hottest team in the league off nine straight victories, most recently torching the Heat 107-96 at home on Tuesday. The Hawks come in at the other end of the spectrum as they lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a humbling 112-78 home loss to the Raptors on Saturday. Cleveland is out for revenge today though after the Hawks pulled off the improbable 117-115 road win in the first matchup back on November 5th. The Cavs come in ranked third in the league with an average of 110.8 PPG, while ranked 27th in scoring defense by allowing 108.5. LeBron James averages 28.2 points, 8.2 boards and 8.3 assists. Atlanta averages 102.2 PPG and concedes 108.2. Dennis Schroder leads the nightly charge with 19.7 points, plust 6.8 assists per game (Hawks are interestingly ranked fifth in the league in three point shooting percentage and 38.2 percent.) I’ll point out that Cleveland has already seen the total go over the number in eight of ten this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in six of its last ten after scoring 85 points or less in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Jazz v. 76ers UNDER 212 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Jazz/76ers (7:05 EST). The Jazz come in off their first road win of the year after smashing the Magic 125-85 on Saturday. This is the finale of a four game Eastern swing for Utah and I think it’s going to suffer a predictable letdown. The 76ers had their two-game win streak snapped in a 124-116 home loss to Golden State on Saturday. When these teams played on November 7th, it was Philadelphia which secured the 104-97 road victory and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well once it’s all said and done. Utah is 27th in the league in scoring with 100.5 PPG and it’s ranked fifth in the league in scoring defense by conceding 100.8 PPG. Derek Favors and Rodney Hood have been recent standouts with big man Rudy Gobert still out with injury for a few more weeks. Philadelphia averages 109 PPG and concedes 110.4. Big man Joel Embiid averages 22.8 points, plust 10.9 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Utah has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 19 off an upset win as an underdog, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of its last 20 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest. The conditions and the numbers both point to the under as the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers OVER 219.5 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the over 76ers/Lakers (10:35 EST). Maybe surprisingly, neither team has been playing to many high-scoring affairs of late. I think that changes tonight in a big way though. The 76ers broke a two-game slide with a win over the Clippers on Monday, while the Lakers enter off a 100-93 victory over Phoenix on Monday. Philadelphia averages 107.9 PPG and concedes 109.5 Big man Joel Embiid leads the team with 20.9 points, plus 10.8 boards per contest. WIth Jerryd Bayless, Robert Covington, Daro Saric, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, the 76ers’ future is bright. LA averages 103.3 PPG and concedes 105.9. Brook Lopez has been big this year, contributing 15.3 points, plus 4.8 boards per game. With Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Julius Randle and Kyle Kuszma, the Lakers future also looks pretty good. I’ll point out that the 76ers have seen the total go over the number in five of six this year following a non-conference game, while the Lakers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in both times this season following a divisional contest. I expect these two young and talented teams to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to indeed soar above the posted number once the final horn blares. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-17 | Kings v. Wizards OVER 208.5 | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Kings/Wizards (7:05 EST). The Kings had their two-game win streak snapped in a 118-91 setback at New York on Saturday, while Washington picked up its second straight victory in a 113-94 win over Atlanta on Saturday night. Note that Sacramento plays with revenge here after Washington took the first game of the season series, 110-83 back on October 29th. So far the Kings average 94.8 PPG and allow 105.3. The Kings are loaded with talent, including D-Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Skal Labissiere, George Hill, Zach Randolph, Vince Carter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. The Wizards have had no issues scoring this year, ranked second overall with an average of 111.5 PPG. The defense though has been a major problem, ranked in the lower-half in allowing 107.1. John Wall averages 20.3 points and 9.7 assists per game, while Bradley Beal averages 24.6 points. I’ll point out that Sacramento has seen the total go over the number in four of five already this year against teams with winning records, while Washington has seen the total soar above the posted number in eight of its last 14 after playing three consecutive home games. This one has the feel of a wide open, run and gun shoot-out. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 228 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Cavaliers/Rockets (8:05 EST). The 5-6 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Houston to take on the 8-3 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below this sky-high number. It would be easy to just assume this will be a high-scoring game. The Cavs’ struggles to start the year are well known. They average 109.9 PPG, while allowing 113.9. Cleveland most recently comes in off a 124-119 home win over the Bucks. Houston has won three straight and it most recently destroyed Utah 137-110 on Sunday. The Rockets average 109.9 PPG and allow just 103.9. Clearly that’s a vast defensive improvement from a season ago. This is an important road trip for the Cavs, as a losing streak on the West Coast would put the team in a pretty big hole. If Cleveland has any hopes of turning its season around, it’s going to have to commit to the defensive end of the floor. That’s something that Houston has alrready done this year and I expect that improved defensive play to get carried over here. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has interestingly seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 21 against the Southwest division, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of its last 20 against the Central. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-17 | Heat v. Suns OVER 213 | Top | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Heat/Suns (9:05 EST). The 4-6 Miami Heat are in Phoenix to take on the 4-7 Suns. Both teams have had to deal with plenty of on and off court drama to open the year and clearly neither can be happy with their overall record at this point. With these two hungry teams dealing with injuries and new faces, while also trying to navigate shaky starts to the 2017/18 campaign, I’m expecting each to push the pace of this one from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. So far the Heat average just 101.2 PPG while conceding 103.9. James Johnson had 21 points, nine boards, six assists and three steals off the bench in a losing cause at Golden State last time out. But Miami is loaded with veteran talent, including Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters. The Suns finally dealt Eric Bledsoe and got big man Greg Monroe in exchange from the Bucks. Phoenix enters off a loss against the Nets in which TJ Warren had 20 points and nine rebounds. Phoenix averages 104.8 PPG and concedes 114.8. I’ll point out that Miami has seen the total go over the number in 16 of its last 26 after playing to three or more consecutive unders, while Phoenix has seen the total go over the number in four of five already this year against clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
8* O/U PERFECT STORM on the under Pacers/Knicks (7:35 EST). The 5-4 Indiana Pacers are in New York to take on the 4-4 Knicks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. New York has won four of its last five. Indiana had won three in a row before a loss at Philadelphia on Friday. I think the Pacers will fall flat here after their 121-110 road loss to the 76ers, dropping them to just 2-3 away from friendly confines. Victor Oladipo was a bright spot with 31 points and so far he’s averaging 26 PPG. New York star Kristaps Porzingis had 37 points in his team’s 120-107 home win over the Suns, also adding seven boards, three blocks and a steal. Note that Enis Kanter has posted eight straight double-doubles. I’ll point out though that Indiana has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 35 after allowing 115 points or more this year (and in its only game this year in that situation), while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 13 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” All things considered, I do indeed feel this number is just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-30-17 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). The Wolves have so far played six games this year and so far the Over/Under has gone 5-0-1, while Miami has seen it go 3-2 thus far. The Wolves broke a two game slide by beating OKC 119-116 on Friday, while Miami has lost two straight, most recently a 96-90 setback at home to Boston on Saturday. These teams played twice last year and both contests went “over” the number, including the Heat’s 123-105 victory on March 17th in Miami. So far the Wolves average 106.8 PPG, while conceding 114.2. Andrew Wiggins averages 19.3 points and 4.5 boards per game, while Karl-Anthony Towns posts 24.8 points and 11.8 boards. Towns had 33 points, 19 boards and four blocks in the win over the Thunder. The Heat average just 103 points, while allowing 106. Goran Dragic averages 20.2 points, 3.6 boards and four assists per contest. I’ll point out though that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five when playing on two days rest, while Miami has seen the total go under the number in 51 of its last 87 when playing the role of underdog and in 13 of its last 22 after playing three consecutive home games. The Heat are desperate to stop their small two-game slide and will look to slow down this contest whenever possible so as to avoid getting into a “track meet” with the high-flying Wolves. And for Minnesota, with a game at New Orleans and the “Twin Towers” up next, it’s not too hard to imainge the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I think the numbers and the overall situation point to the under as the correct move in this particular contest. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the over Magic/Hornets (6:05 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this number is just a little low. The Magic come in “firing on all cylinders” to open the season, now 4-1 and having won three straight, most recently a 114-87 smoke-job of the Spurs on Friday. The Hornets have alternated wins and losses this year and will be eager to return to the winners circle after a lacklustre 109-93 setback to the Rockets on Friday. So far in the early going Orlando is second in the league in scoring with an average of 118 PPG, while ranked 20th in scoring defense in conceding 107.2 per contest. Evan Fournier led the charge against the Spurs with 25 points. The Magic are second in the league in field goal percentage with 49.8 percent collectively. Charlotte is averaging just 99.2 PPG thus far, while allowing 99.6. Kemba Walker leads the team with 22 points and 5.8 assists per game, while Dwight Howard is averaging 14.4 points and 17.6 boards per contest. The Hornets though have seen the total go over the number in 22 of their last 38 against poor defensive clubs which allow 106-plus points per contest. Also note that Orlando has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after three or more consecutive SU victories. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-17 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 211.5 | Top | 109-93 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Rockets/Hornets (7:05 EST). The 4-1 Houston Rockets are in Charlotte to take on the 2-2 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. The Rockets bounced back from their first setback of the year to take down Philadelphia 105-104 on the road on Wednesday, while on the same night Charlotte was busy laying the smack down on Denver, 110-93. Houston took both meetings between the clubs last season. In Houston’s one point win on Wednesday, Eric Gordon nailed a three-pointer as time expired for the victory. The Rockets were sloppy, turning the ball over 19 times, but sharp from the charity stripe, going 21 of 24. So far Houston averages 105.8 PPG, while allowing 102.8. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 26.4 PPG and 9.6 assists, while Gordon adds 24.6 PPG. Charlotte on the other hand is already 2-0 at home to open the year. The Hornets have so far averaged 100.8 PPG and allowed 97.3 in the early going. Frank Kaminsky had 20 points off the bench to lead all scorers in the Hornets most recent victory. Note that veteran Dwight Howard has been dominating early, averaging 13.3 points and 17.8 boards per game. It’s interesting to note that Houston has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 25 against good defensive clubs which allow 98 points or less per contest, while Charlotte has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 30 of its last 46 after a win by ten points or more. I’m expecting a more wide open affair than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | Raptors v. Spurs UNDER 205 | 97-101 | Win | 100 | 32 h 41 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on under Raptors/Spurs (8:30 EST). The 2-0 SU/ATS Toronto Raptors have seen the Over/under go 2-0 so far this year, while the 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS San Anontio Spurs have seen it go 1-1. This is the start of a tough six game road trip for the Raptors and suffice it to say, I think the team is going to struggle with offensive consistency in this one. Toronto most recently pulled away for a relatively simple 128-94 win over Philadelphia on Saturday, while San Antonio topped the Bulls 87-77 in its most recent action. So far the Raptors are averaging 122.5 PPG, a number which is clearly unsustainable. Toronto has also looked sharp defensively in conceding just 97 PPG. That’s likely not a number the team can maintain for too much longer either, but regardless, it’s still impressive. So far it’s been DeMar DeRozan leading the charge and he had 30 points in his team’s latest victory. LaMarcus Aldridge had 28 points and ten boards in the Spurs’ win over Chicago. San Antonio is still playing without leader Kawhi Leonard, which doesn’t bode well for the Spurs in a long-term scenario. Note that the Spurs are averaging just 97 PPG through two games, while allowing just 88. Additionally I’ll point out that despite its early high-scoring games, Toronto has in fact seen the total go under the number in 35 of its last 63 as an underdog and in 55 of its last 94 on the road overall, while San Antonio has seen the total go under the posted number in five of its last seven road games. I think the shift in venue throws a “monkey wrench” into the Raptors offensive consistency and I expect the home side to put added emphasis onto the defensive end of the floor with its star player sidelined with injury. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 211.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Grizzlies/Rockets (8:05 EST). Two of the top teams in the West collide on Monday night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Memphis Grizzlies are 2-0 ASU/ATS, while the Houston Rockets are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. So far the Grizz have seen the Over/Under go 0-2, while the Rockets have seen it go 1-2. Memphis looks primed for a big run in my opinion after its confidence boosting 111-101 home win over the Warriors on Saturday. The Rockets come in off a 107-91 win over the Mavericks on Saturday and will also be looking to keep the goods times rolling. Note that these two teams split four meetings last year, with Houston posting a 123-106 win in the most recent meeting here back on March 4th. The Grizz used a 32-20 third quarter to secure their win over the defending champs. Big man Marc Gasol had 34 points and 14 boards. Note that Memphis would go 10 of 27 from range as well. So far Memphis averages 107 PPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive side in conceding 96 PPG. That defense though is about to be tested by the high-flying Rockets, who average 111.3 PPG. The Grizzlies do catch a break in facing Houston’s mediocre 15th ranked defense which concedes 104 PPG. Note that James Harden has averaged 27.7 PPG thus far. I’ll point out as well that Memphis has seen the total go over the number in 21 of its last 33 off an upset win as an underdog, while Houston has seen the total go over the number in 25 of its last 35 following a divisional contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | 76ers v. Pistons UNDER 214 | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on the under 76ers/Pistons (7:05 EST). The 76ers are going to be pretty hungry here as they come into this one winless, looking to get off the schneid and break their 0-3 slide. Conversely, I think the Pistons come in a bit complacent after they just climbed back above .500 with a win against the Knicks on Saturday. So far Philadelphia has struggled on both sides of the ball, averaging just 100.3 PPG, while allowing 116.7. Jerryd Bayless averages 15.7 points, as does Ben Simmons. Big man Joel Embiid adds 14.5 points plus 13.5 boards per contest. Detroit also struggles offensively, averaging only 101.2 PPG. The Pistons have been better on the defensive end, ranked sixth overall in conceding 102.4 per game. Tobias Harris leads the way with 24.3 points and 6.3 boards per game, while Reggie Jackson addes 16.7 points and 6.7 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 19 of its last 34 following a divisional contest, while Detroit has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 21 home games. I think Detroit will look to “control” this one while on offense with a lot of half court sets, a tactic which I believe will help result in pushing this total under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 214.5 | Top | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the under Knicks/Thunder (8:05 EST). New York is in a complete rebuild after trading Carmelo Anthony to the Thunder in the offseason. Derrick Rose is gone as well from The Big Apple. Enes Canter was signed in the offseason and Doug McDermott came over in the Anthony trade. Kristaps Porzingis will be the “go to” guy in New York now. Last season the Knicks were tied for 18th in the league in scoring with 104.3 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in allowing 108. The Thunder averaged 106.6 PPG and allowed 105.8. Russell Westbrook posted an amazing season with 31.6 points, 10.7 boards and 10.4 assists per game. He’ll be joined by Anthony and Paul George, a unit which is expected to compete with the Warriors once it’s all said and done. Both teams have new faces and new systems to incorporate. While Porzingis is now the face of the Knicks, one has to wonder where the team is going to find consistent offense now that Anthony is gone? OKC has the potential to be a championship team, but it could also be a big disaster, with three alpha males unable to form proper chemistry. I’ll point out that the under 3-0-1 in New York’s last four road games, while OKC has seen the total dip below the number in two of its last three at home. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 228.5 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -104 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Cavaliers (9:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST). Game 4 fell below the posted number and I’m expecting another lower-scoring affair here as well. I think this is a great “situational” play, as I simply don’t think that Boston has anything left in the tank. I actually had a play on the Celtics in their epic outright Game 3 victory. I had a play on the “under” in Game 4. But here I feel that the C’s have finally run out of gas and I expect the determined Cavaliers to clamp down defensively and end this series immediately so as to not prolong it any further as they start to focus on Golden State. Cleveland rolled through the playoffs, but the Game 3 loss was a big wake up call for the team. To begin with the Cavaliers simply ran the other teams off the court, but now that the postseason has worn on, fatigue is finally starting to set in. So from a “situational” stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The numbers also support our play on the “under,” as note that the Cavs have seen the total go under in 15 of their last 27 when leading in a playoff series, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six this year when trailing in a playoff series. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U PERFECT STORM on the under Celtics/Cavaliers (8:30 EST). I had a play on Boston in Game 3. I wish I had it on the money line, but regardless, it was a very sweet victory nonetheless. So far two of three have flown above the posted number in this series, but I think Game 4 sets up as more of a defensive battle. The Celtics responded well in their first game without star Isaiah Thomas in the line-up, who has been lost for the rest of the playoffs with a hip injury. Cleveland had a 21 point lead at half time, but fell apart defensively in the second half. LeBron James had his worst game of the playoffs so far. Clearly James will be much better tonight, but regardless, Boston will once again be trying its best to slow down “The King.” Boston’s Marcus Smart had a career night in Game 3, finishing with 27 points. Clearly the Cavs will be blanketing the dynamic guard this evening as well. So far the Cavs haven’t put a massive emphasis on the defensive end in the playoffs, rather they’ve been running teams off the court with their dynamic offense. However, now that they’ve suffered their first loss and with fatigue finally becoming a factor, I’m expecting the defending champs to put a renewed focus on that end of the court tonight. The numbers support our play on the “under” as well, as I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in five of eight this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the number in four of its last five in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think Boston runs out of gas, I think the Cavs control the tempo and I think this one falls under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Spurs (9:00 EST). It’s do-or-die time for the Spurs, who will give it everything they have to try and claw their way back into this series after dropping both in Golden State. The Warriors came roaring from behind to take Game 1, 113-111 and then followed it up with a blowout 136-100 victory in Game 2. I think this is a great “situational” play, as San Antonio will have to do what it does best if it has any shot at stealing this game outright and that’s play suffocating defense from start to finish. Whether Kawhi Leonard plays or not, I’m expecting the Spurs to put together their best defensive effort of this series so far. This one also sets up nicely from a trend based stand point, as note that Golden State has seen the total go under the number in five of eight this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four after playing three consecutive road games. I don’t think the Warriors are going to shoot 56 percent from the floor again like they did in Game 2. If San Antonio is going down, it’s not going down without a fight. All signs point to this one sneaking under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST). I played the under 219.5 in Game 1 and the team’s would combine to post 221. It was a tough loss for sure. A big third quarter was the difference, as the teams combined for 40 points by the six-minute mark after the break. The Cavs looked fresh, while the C’s looked gassed. But with Game 1 now in the books, I don’t expect these team’s to put together another third-quarter effort like they had in Game 1 and I look for this one to fall below the number once it’s all said and done. Clearly slowing down LeBron James will be Boston’s No. 1 priority, he is averaging 34.8 points, nine boards and 7.1 assists in the postseason. Will Cleveland center Tristan Thompson have back-to-back monster games? The big man exploded for a career playoff-high 20 points, going 7 of 7 from the floor. In fact, swingman Kevin Love also posted a career playoff-high 32 points to go along with 12 boards. Both are capable, but i just don’t see it happening in consecutive contests. Boston needs to control the tempo of this game if it has any shot at avoiding the 2-0 sweep in front of the home town crowd. But how much gas do the Celtics have left after their seven-game series win over the Wizards? Boston can’t expect to turn this series into a “track meet” and beat the Cavs, so look for plenty of half-court sets on the offensive end for the home side this evening. I’ll also point out that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in two of its last three after scoring 113 points or more, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of ten when trailing in a playoff series. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 219.5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST). Cleveland hasn’t played since May 7th. So will rest lead to rust? Probably not, but it’s not too hard to imagine the Cavaliers coming out a bit flat to begin this game and that’s likely all we need to push this one under this sky-high number. Boston could be poised for a bit of a letdown here itself after its exhausting seven game series win over the Wizards. Note that the Cavs took three of four regualr season meetings this year between the teams. It’s also intereting to note that in the Celtics’ win over Washington, it was the home team that won every game in that series. Boston has averaged 107.1 PPG in the postseason (the Cavs have averaged 114.5), but so far it’s been the Celtics’ defense which has been the standout, ranked 8th in conceding 103.4 per game. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 23 this year against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly 20 of 35 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106-plus points per game. I think we’re going to see a slower-paced Game 1, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Spurs/Warriors (9:00 EST). The Spurs had a 20 point lead at half time in Game 1, but Kawhi Leonard was injured in the third quarter and San Antonio would predictably fall apart in the Warriors’ eventual 113-111 victory. The Spurs rolled to a massive victory in Game 6 over the Houston Rockets in the last round without Leonard in the line-up, but I think San Antonio will struggle with offensive consistency today. Their main option now will be big man Marcus Aldridge, who has been playing a lot better of late. But the Warriors know this and they have a deep/talented bench of guys to throw at him all game long. Golden State has a golden opportunity to send a real dagger into the hearts of Spurs fans tonight with a resounding perfomance and before the series shifts to San Antonio. Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs in the playoffs, as San Antonio has seen the O/U go 10-2, while Golden State has seen it go 6-3. But I think Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. San Antonio can now ill afford to get into a “track meet” with the Warriors and expect to win this one, so the visitors will be looking to slow down the pace and control the tempo. And that means half-court sets on offense. Also note that despite the high-scoring Game 1 victory, the Warriors have seen the total go under the number in nine of their last 13 conference final games, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after giving up 112 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Celtics/Wizards (8:00 EST). I took Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series before then taking the Wizards in Game’s 3 and 4. I’d then lose however with the Wizards in Game 5, as Boston bounced back big time in front of the home town crowd. Will this pattern continue in Game 6? I’m skeptical, but regardless, I think the conditions are right for a slower-paced under this evening. Boston is ready to take on the Cavaliers, but it’ll have to win in the nation’s capital tonight, or risk a winner takes all Game 7 back at home. The Celtics shot 52.9 percent from the floor in Game 5 and I simply can’t see the now desperate Wizards playing so horribly on the defensive end again. Washington’s entire season boils down to this moment. Boston though played smothering defense in Game 5, holding the Wizards to only 38.5 percent from the floor, including just 7 of 29 from range. The C’s will now look to duplicate that performance in Game 6. I’ll also point out that Boston has in fact seen the total go under the number in 18 of 30 this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after allowing 115 points or more. When you add it all up, I think this number is just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the under Spurs/Rockets (8:00 EST). I had a play on the “over” in Game 5 and obviously feel a bit fortunate to win that one as the team’s would need overtime to barely push the total above the closing number. It seemed like the “over” would be a lock after three quarters, but the teams combined for only 31 points in the fourth frame. San Antonio is on the verge of clinching this series and will look to once again slow down James Harden as much as possible. Harden is averaging 30.3 PPG in the playoffs. The Spurs had the lead for most of the game (86-85 after three quarters) last time out, but trailed by five with just 2:34 to play. It was back and forth the entire way and eventually led to Spurs’ veteran Manu Ginobili making a huge block on Harden at the buzzer in OT. There’s a lot of pressure on both of these teams. For Harden and company, it’s the same old story, they’re viewed as not being talented, deep and strong enough to seriously contend in the West and until they can get over the hump, they’ll continue to carry that monkey on their collective backs. For the Spurs it’s an entirely different kind of pressure. A legendary head coach which is trying desperately to match his remaining pieces together and produce a winning result. San Antonio though has looked old and susceptible at times in the postseason, with still yet unproven big man LaMarcus Aldridge trying to fill some very big shoes and the very real absence of veteran point guard Tony Parker right now. I think the pressure is getting to everyone in this series and the fourth quarter of Game 5 showed that. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 214 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Rockets/Spurs (8:00 EST). This seven game series in all tied up at 2-2 after the Rockets soard to a 125-104 victory in Game 4 (I had Houston in that one). Both teams have looked great at times and poor in others so far this series, but in this pivotal Game 5 matchup, I’m expecting both sides to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Houston will look to duplicate its Game 4 performance here. The Rockets were running from the opening tip until the final horn. So far Houston is third among postsason teams in scoring offense with 111.4 per game. Houston though is ranked 11th in scoring defense in conceding 105.3. James Harden has been leading the nightly charge with 30 points plus 5.2 boards and 8.4 assists per game in the postseason. The Spurs have been averaging 105.5 PPG in the playoffs and allowed an average of 101.7. San Antonio looked lost and old in Game 4 and clearly the team is going to have to adjust on the fly again. Keep your eyes on Kawhi Leonard, he’s averaging a team-high 28.4 points, seven boards and 1.7 steals per game in the playoffs. I’ll point out that the over is 9-2 in the Rockets last 11 Conferece Semi games, 4-1 in their last five following a SU victory and 5-2 in their last seven on the road, while the Spurs have seen the total sail above the posted number in their last six games following an ATS loss. The over has also gone 6-1-1 in these team’s last seven games played in San Antonio. I think the conditions are right for another high-scoring affair, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 209 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Jazz (8:30 EST). The Warriors took both games at home pretty easily, although they didn’t manage to cover the spread in either. I played the “over” in Game 1 and lost and then took the “over” in Game 2 and won. I think with the shift in venue that we’re going to see another lower-scoring affair in Game 3 though. From a situational stand point, this one sets up perfectly for an “under” in my opinion, as Utah will have to get back to basics and do what it does best if it has any shot whatsoever at scoring an upset tonight. And that means playing smothering, suffocating, relentless defense. The Warriors were the highest scoring team in the regular season, but the Jazz owned the No. 1 defense. Not only does this one set up great from a “situational” stand point, but the numbers/trends also support the “under,” as Golden State has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 48 this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four following a loss by ten points or more. And that’s what this pick comes down to for me. A venue shift, a desperate Utah team that needs to control the tempo and dictate the flow and some extremely strong “under” trends that simply can’t be ignored. It’s a perfect storm of factors, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 103-92 | Win | 100 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Spurs/Rockets (9:30 EST). It’s a big game obviously, Game 3 is always a big one. These teams are deadlocked at one apiece and with the series shifting to Houston, I think we’re going to see more of a defensive battle than what some may think. The Spurs’ big win in Game 2 came at a cost, as venerable point guard Tony Parker was lost for the season to injury. One now has to wonder if Parker has played his last game in the NBA? Obvioulsy the loss isn’t that monumental, as the team’s core players remain in tact. The Spurs dominated the glass in Game 2 by a 47-32 margin and Kawhi Leonard led the charge with 34 points. So far San Antonio has been averaging 106 PPG in the playoffs, while conceding 100. Leonard has led the way with 30.3 points, 6.8 boards and 1.68 steals per game. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge has posted 13.5 points and 7.3 boards per game. The Rockets have averaged 112.3 PPG and given up 105.9 in the playoffs. James Harden has led the way with 28.4 points, 5.7 boards and 8.4 assists per game. San Antonio has been playing to some higher-scoring affairs in the playoffs, as it’s seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of eight postseason contests thus far. I’ll point out though that the Spurs have seen the total go under the number in ten of their last 16 against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. Also note that Houston has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 32 this year after allowing 115 points or more. I think fatigue plays a factor in Game 3. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 214.5 | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple PLay is on the under Cavs/Raptors (7:00 EST). I also have a play on the Raptors. In the analysis for that pick i write: The public has been cleaning up in this series, as the Cavs and the “over” have both gone on to cash with ease over the first two games. Kyle Lowry may be out of this game, but I think the Raptors have a fantastic opportunity to steal one from the defending champs and get right back into this series. So far it’s been fairly “easy” for the Cavs, who steamrolled the Pacers in four games in their opening round matchup, only to then also dominate the first two games against Toronto. If ever Cleveland was going to have a “letdown,” then this is it. The Cavs have been playing at an extremely high level for six straight games and now hit the road to face a Raptors teach which is in “do-or-die” mode. The same sort of situation occured last night with the Celtics. I had played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of its series against Washington, but came back with the Wizards in Game 3 last night. The C’s had won six in a row after dropping the first two to the Bulls in their opening round, but finally looked primed for a letdown in Game 3 after the extended stretch of high-level play. The exact same thing applies to Cleveland tonight. Clearly the Raptors can ill afford to turn this one into another “track meet” and hope to beat the Cavs. Toronto will be looking to control the tempo of this one and I think that means a slower, more methodically paced affair in Game 3. And a slower game means less shots and less shots means less points. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 204 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the over Jazz/Warriors (10:30 EST). I played the “over” in Game 1 and came up short. I expect a better effort from the Jazz offensively tonight though and look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Utah’s late rally wasn’t enough in the 106-94 setback. Gordon Hayward had just 12 points in Game 1. I think he’s going to get back on track with a much better effort tonight. Utah had just come off a tough seven-game series win over the Clippers, so some regression in the first game, especially against the well rested Warriors, had to be expected. The Warriors dismantled the Blazers in four games and will once again be looking to send a statement tonight. Golden State shot 48.8 percent from the floor in Game 1. The Jazz hit nine three-pointers, but the Warriors hit just seven. Golden State made up for it by forcing 14 turnovers, compared to just seven for the Jazz. I think Utah will be more mentally prepared tonight and with each team pushing the pace, the correct call is indeed on the over in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 208 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Jazz/Warriors (10:30 EST). They say defense wins championships. That addage is true in many cases, but I’ve always thought that it pertained more to the gridiron than to the hardwood. It’s the league’s No. 1 defense going up against the NBA’s No. 1 offense on Tuesday night and in my opinion, I believe the overall “situation” lends itself to a higher-scoring shootout. And that’s because I’m expecting the well rested Warriors to send a clear message to the Jazz, to the Western Conference and most importantly, to LeBron James and the Cavaliers that they’re still the team that needs to be respected and feared the most. Utah pulled off the upset over the Clippers because, most would argue, LA star Blake Griffin was injured in Game 3 and was lost for the rest of the season. The Jazz likely would not have won that series if Griffin remained healthy. But regardless, Utah has moved onto the second round after a gruelling seven game opening series and suffice it to say, I think its normally stout defense is going to be predictably “gassed” tonight in what will be a very raucous arena. And I’ll point out that the Jazz have in fact seen the total go over the number in four of seven this year off an upset win as an underdog and in 16 of 23 after a win by ten points or more. And note that Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 28 already this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 215 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 14 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the the under Rockets/Spurs (9:35 EST). Houston looked surprisingly good on the defensive end in its 4-1 opening series victory over the Thunder. The Spurs struggled with their offense at times against the Grizzlies, but ultimately their strong defensive play and consistent attack proved too much for Memphis in the six game series victory. One of my 8* picks of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Spurs and in the analysis for that selection, I mention that I think Kawhi Leonard of San Antonio is a tough matchup for Houston. Leonard is probably the best two-way player in the NBA. Houston’s James Harden is an unbelievable talent, but clearly he’s unable to play defense at an elite level, it’s his one and only weakness. For me, this is a “situational” play, as I believe San Antonio will want to slow this one down from the start and control the tempo, as it will look to avoid turning this series into a “track meet” (a pace which would clearly favor Houston.) The Spurs had a top 3 defense in the regular season and note that they’ve seen the total go under the number in 16 of 28 this year against good offensive teams which average 106 points per game. I’ll also point out that the Rockets have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six this year when playing with three or more days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 192 | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jazz/Clippers (3:30 EST). It’s a pivotal Game 7 showdown and in my opinion, all signs point to a higher-scoring shootout. LA is at home and will be looking to push the pace of this one from start to finish. The Jazz are going to be forced to match tempo. The total has since dropped a couple of points from when I first made this selection, but regardless, I still love this play as I think the situation definitely lends itself to a faster paced affair. LA lost Blake Griffin, but it rallied on the road in Game 6 to gut out the 98-93 victory. The total stayed “under” the number in that one by a single bucket. So far Utah allows 98 and concedes 98 in the playoffs. LA has averaged 98 and allowed 98 as well. These teams are very evenly matched and much more so now that Griffin is out of the equation. I think the Jazz have more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well. The stage is set for Gordon Hayward to put his team on his back and take it to the next level. Hayward continues to get solid support from Joe Johnson (16.7 points in the playoffs) and Rudy Gobert (10.3). I’ll point out that Utah has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset loss as a favorite, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 15 this year against good defensive clubs which allow 98 points or less per game. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-17 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 192.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Clippers/Jazz (10:35 EST). LA doesn’t win games with its defense. Utah does though, ranked No. 1 in the league in that department. The Jazz don’t usually “shoot the lights” out either. The Clippers’ backs are against the wall and they’re fighting an uphill battle on the road without major contributor Blake Griffin to help, but they won’t be going down without a fight. LA has to take control of the tempo/pace of this game if it has any hopes of pushing it to a decisive Game 7. So that means taking the Jazz out of their “comfort zone,” which is typically a slower paced affair with a lot of trapping and half court sets on the offensive end. This is unchartered territory for most of the Jazz and they’ll be equally as hyped to just end the series here and now and get ready for the next round. In my opinion, the overall “situation” definitely lends itself to a faster paced Game 6. Also note that LA has in fact seen the total go over the number in four of its last five off an upset loss as a favorite, while Utah has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of six this season off an upset win as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 212 | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Hawks/Wizards (6:00 EST). Suffice it to say, it’s a big game. So far home floor has played a big part in this series, with each team taking both games on its own floor. Atlanta most recently pulled away for a 111-101 victory at home on Monday. The Hawks have been playing over their heads on the offensive end so far through the first four games, averaging 108.8 PPG. Atlanta only averaged 102.3 PPG in the regular season. Washington ranked in the top ten in scoring and the bottom third on the defensive end. Atlanta made adjustments on the defensive end in Game’s 3 and 4 and we’re expecting a duplicate game-plan here (note that Washington scored 223 points combined in the first two games and only 199 combined over the next two). I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a win by ten points or more, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three following a loss by ten points or more. I think these teams play an extremely aggressive game and I look for this total to sneak below the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-17 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the under Thunder/Rockets (8:00 EST). These teams are very similar, in that they like to push the pace from start to finish, while defense often takes a “back seat.” The Rockets rallied for a 113-109 road win in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead last time out, the total staying below the posted number in that one. With a chance to send the Thunder packing, I’m expecting Houston to come out very aggressive on the defensive end tonight as it looks to slow down OKC superstar Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have to be kicking themselves, as they had a lead through three quarters in Game 4, but their defense fell apart in the final frame and allowed the Rockets to score 40 points. OKC would go on to shoot just 18 of 32 from the charity stripe as well. Despite the victory, note that Houston wasn’t all that effecient offensively in Game 4, connecting on 43.5 percent from the floor, including only 11 of 35 from range. I’ll point out as well that OKC has seen the total go under the posted number in eight of 14 this year off an upset loss as a favorite and in 21 of 32 when playing the role of underdog, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after scoring 110 points or more. I think this is going to be a very rough game, which will lead to a slightly slower pace. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 192 | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Bucks/Raptors (7:00 EST). These teams are all tied at two apiece as the series shifts back to Toronto in what has now become the best of three. So far the Over/Under is 1-3. I think finally though we’re going to see these teams post some prorduction as I look for this total to eclipse the lower number as it comes down the stretch. So far these are the two lowest scoring teams in the playoffs. Milwaukee wasn’t a high-scoring team in the regular season either, finishing in the bottom third in scoring. Toronto though finished in the top 5. It won’t take much offense to push this one over this low number though. And note, this is a spot in which the Bucks have in fact been involved in some higher-scoring affairs, as Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in 14 of 22 this season after a loss by ten points or more and in eight of 13 off an upset loss as a favorite. And note that Toronto has seen the total go over the number in 15 of 26 this season following a win by ten points or more and in three of its last four after allowing 90 points or less. All signs finally point to a more wide open affair, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LEGEND is the under Celtics/Bulls (6:30 EST). Boston struggled in Games 1 and 2, but got back on track in Chicago with a big 104-87 Game 3 victory. Al Horford scored 18 points and grabbed eight boards in the win. Isaiah Thomas is stlll trying to regain his focus after getting blind-sided with his sisters death just before the series started, he’d finish with 16 (note though that he did have nine assists). Four players would go on to score at least 15 points. Chicago dominated on the offensive end in Boston, but was held to just 39 percent from the floor in Game 3, including only 6 of 21 from range. Dwayne Wade was a standout with 18 points. Jimmy Butler was swarmed, finishing just 7 for 21 for 14 points and zero assists. I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last nine when trailing in a playoff series and in five of six this year after allowing 90 points or less, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of 14 this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. I think this series has been somewhat civil to this point. But tempers are going to continue to flare. I believe both teams will put a huge emphasis on the defensive end. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago between these two clubs and all signs point to another low-scoring affair. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Warriors/Blazers (10:30 EST). Golden State has a commanding 2-0 lead in this Western Conference Quarterfinal after pulling away for a 110-81 victory over the Blazers. All star Kevin Durant did not even suit up for that one. He’s listed as questionable for tonight. Draymond Green was dominant in the Game 2 victory though, finishing with six points, 12 boards and ten assists. It’s do-or-die for the Blazers essentially as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for the team to overcome. So far Portland has struggled with offense, as Golden State has turned up the pressure and not allowed any free looks for it shooters. I think we can expect an identical game plan from Steve Kerr tonight as well. Note that Damian Lillard was held to just 12 points, including 0 of 4 from behind the arc in the Game 2 defeat. Note that in four of their last five when playing on two days rest, the Warriors have seen the total dip below the posted number. Then there’s the Durant issue as well? All signs point to this one sneaking under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 187.5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Spurs/Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The Spurs are 2-1 in this series, taking the first two at home and dropping Game 3 in Memphis 105-94. Kawhi Leonard was dominant in the two victories in San Antonio, but was held to just 18 points last time out. Memphis predicates itself on its tough defensive play and it was front and center in Game 3. It will be tough though in my opinion to duplicate that performance against this deep and experienced Spurs side. Regardless, the Grizzlies did look a lot better on the offensive end after struggling at times in the first two games. Zach Randolph had 21 points and eight boards. And I’ll point out that San Antonio has seen the total go over the number in 13 of 20 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Memphis has seen the total eclispe the posted number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 195 | 87-76 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Raptors/Brewers (3:00 EST). Toronto is turning out to be the “Jekyll and Hyde” team of the 2017 playoffs, as you just don’t know what you’ll get from it from game to game. MIlwaukee can smell the blood in the water and will be looking to build off its Game 3 victory and take a 3-1 strangle hold in this Eastern Conference Quarterfinal. I’m expecting Toronto to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to re-assert itself and take the defensive minded Bucks out of their comfort zone. The Raptors couldn’t get anything going in Game 3, falling behind 32-12 in the first quarter. Toronto finished as one of the Top 5 offenses in the league, averaging over 107 PPG, but so far Toronto has been dead last in the playoffs in averaging only 88.7. As good as Milwaukee has been defensively, I think the Raptors finally break out tonight. And I’ll point out that the Raptors have seen the total go over the number in six of their last ten when trailing in a playoff series and in four of their last five in revenging a loss against an opponent, while the Bucks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of eight this year after allowing 85 points or less. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 192.5 | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Bucks/Raptors (7:00 EST). Milwaukee pulled away for a 97-83 win in Game 1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to come out fired up tonight and to push the pace from start to finish. The Bucks are going to have to match pace if they have any shot at pulling off another upset. A faster paced game usually translates into a higher-scoring affair and that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 28 points plus eight rebounds in the Game 1 win to lead Milwaukee. The Bucks were 12 of 15 from the line, compared to 24 of 33 for the Raptors. This is basically a “must-win” game for Toronto now. The Raptors though have to be feeling pretty confident as they’d won 13 of the previous 15 regular season contests against Milwaukee. Toronto was one of the highest scoring team’s in the league and I’m fully expecting a return to the norm this evening. I’ll point out that Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 this season off an upset win as an underdog, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of 13 this year when playing on two days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the OVER. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 | 109-121 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 EST). The 41-41 Portland Trailblazers are in Golden State to take on the 67-15 Warriors in Game 1 of their Western Conference first round matchup and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Blazers had a three-game win streak snapped with a 103-100 home loss to New Orleans in their finale on Wednesday, while the Warriors won for a 15th time in their last 16 games with a 109-94 victory over the Lakers later that same night. Golden State has won ten of the last 11 in the series, including all four this year, most recently a 113-110 road victory on January 29th. The Warriors have to be feeling pretty confident here as they won the lone playoff series between the clubs, 4-1, in the 2016 Western Conference semifinals. Portland averages 107.9 PPG and concedes 108.5. Golden State averages 115.9 PPG and concedes 104.3. I’ll point out though that the under is 5-1 in Porland’s last six against the Pacific and 4-1 in its last five following a SU loss, while Golden State has seen the under go 5-1 in its last six quarterfinals matchups and 10-3 in its last 13 at home. Both teams tightend up defensively down the stretch and I expect that to carry over here. They can still both score in triple-digits and have this total fall under this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 212.5 | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Nuggets/Mavericks (8:35 EST). The 38-42 Denver Nuggets are in Dallas to take on the 32-48 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. These are two teams playing out the end of their respective seasons. Denver fell apart in a 106-105 home loss to OKC on Sunday, while Dallas lost its fourth straight and its eighth out of its last nine after falling 124-111 at Phoenix on Sunday. Denver has taken two of three in the season series, including a 110-87 win at home on February 6th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score this evening as well. Denver is the third highest scoring team in the league with an average of 111.8 PPG and it’s horrible defensively, ranked 27th in conceding 111.5. But I think the Nuggets finally have a letdown here, as the loss to Oklahoma City, coupled with the Blazers victory on Saturday put the final nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. It’s a classic “letdown” spot if I’ve ever seen one. The Mavs started slow, had a small mid-season surge and then predictably fell apart down the stretch. Dallas will end the season ranked dead last in PPG with 98. Dallas is decent defensively though in conceding only 100.8. I’ll point out that Denver has seen the total go under the number in six of nine this year against poor offensive teams that average 98 points or less per contest, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly 13 of 21 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. A couple of disinterested teams put forth a half-assed effort and this one falls under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Thunder/Suns (10:05 EST). The 45-33 OKC Thunder are in Phoenix to take on the 22-57 Suns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. OKC currently sits in sixth spot in the West, while the Suns are playing out the tail end of a miserable season. The Thunder come in off an ipressive 103-100 road win over the Grizzlies. Russell Westbrook had 45 points, nine boards and ten assists. He needs just one more Triple-Double to surpass Oscar Robertson on the all time list. Westbrook had eight three-pointers in that one and the Thunder shot 45 percent from range. But that’s hardly been the norm this year though, as note that OKC does rank as one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 33 percent. Phoenix comes in off a 120-111 loss to the Warriors. Devin Booker had 21 points, three boards, five assists and three steals. The Suns looked particularly horrible on the offensive end, shooting only 41.7 percent from the floor. They also turned the ball over 16 times. I’ll point out that OKC has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Phoenix has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after allowing 120 points or more. The Thunder look to close the regular season strong. They don’t need to push the pace of this one to win, so expect the visitors to control the tempo. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Spurs v. Mavs OVER 190 | Top | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Spurs/Mavericks (8:30 EST). The 60-18 San Antonio Spurs are in Dallas to take on the 32-46 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. San Antonio had won three straight and eight of nine before a humbling 102-95 home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, while Dallas lost its second straight and sixth of its last seven after a 112-101 road loss to the Clippers on Wednesday. The Spurs play with revenge here, as Dallas scored the 105-101 road upset in the last matchup on January 29th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. San Antonio averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 98.2. The Mavs average only 97.9 PPG and allow 100.5. San Antonio is resting its star players, which means that the backups will be looking to make a statement today and take advantage of the opportunity. Neither team has anything to play for, as Dallas is out of the playoffs, while San Antonio is locked into second in the West no matter what happens over the last few games. I don’t think much effort will be put onto the defensive end tonight. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Heat/Raptors (7:35 EST). The 38-40 Miami Heat are in Toronto to take on the 48-31 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Heat broke a two-game slide with a 112-99 victory in Charlotte on Wednesday, while Toronto rallied to beat the Pistons 105-102 on the road for its eighth win in its last ten games on the same night. Note that Toronto has taken two of three in the season series this year, which includes a 101-84 victory in the most recent matchup on March 23rd. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Miami is in a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the East. The Heat only average 102.9 PPG, but make up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 101.9. Clearly Miami can ill afford to get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Raptors, who average 107.1 PPG. The Heat will have to do what they do best and that’s play tough, full court defense from start to finish if they have any hopes whatsoever in scoring the upset this evening. Toronto is ranked seventh in scoring defense in conceding 103.1 PPG. The Raptors have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but after their epic come-from-behind win over the Pistons and with road games at New York and Cleveland to close out the regular season, Toronto could no doubt be caught a little flat-footed and “gassed” tonight. I’ll point out that the under is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine following a straight-up win over more than ten points and 4-1 in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Toronto has seen the under go 6-2 in its last eight after allowing 102 points or more in its previous outing. I’m expecting an all out war and for this one to fall under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |