ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers –7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 pm ET - Heading into the All-Star break with the final games before the break taking place Thursday night and one of those is the Blazers vs Jazz game. These two teams are heading in opposite directions with the Blazers in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase sitting 9th and only a few games behind the 8th place Warriors. Utah on the other hand has 18 wins on the season and, though off a surprisingly big win last night over the Kings, indications are they will tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. The other night in Miami, the Jazz were playing well through 3 quarters and leading the Heat, then unexpectedly sat the starters in the 4th Q. This Jazz roster with the addition of Jackson Jr and the emergence of Keyonte George has a bright future but we won’t see their best play the rest of the way this season. Portland is playing well right now with a close loss to Phoenix before then winning 3 in a row against the Grizzlies and Sixers prior to last night's loss at Minnesota. Portland has the 11th best Net rating over their last 5-games and they had covered 5 straight road games before the blowout loss to the Timberwolves last night. The big advantage the Blazers have in this matchup in their defense which ranks 19th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.165-points per possession. Utah on the other hand is LAST in the NBA in dEFF allowing 1.229PPP. Portland has beaten the Jazz twice already this season with the most recent win coming in early January by 20-points. This one could be just as ugly as the last one.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - The Hornets will be shorthanded tonight with suspensions likely coming for Diabate and Bridges stemming from a brawl the other night against the Pistons. That’s a significant loss for the Hornet in one key aspect of their advantage in this game against the Hawks. These two teams just played a few days ago and the Hornets outrebounded the Hawks by 19. Diabate and Bridges are the two leading rebounders for the Hornets. Charlotte has been on a fantastic run of late but when you look at season long statistics there isn’t much of a gap between these two teams with the Hornets having a +1.9 efficiency differential compared to the Hawks -1.2 eDIFF. Atlanta shoots it at 47.3% on the season (11th best) and the Hornets allow 47.3%, 19th worst in the league. The Hawks should enjoy a solid advantage from beyond the arc in this one as they are the 6th best 3PT shooting team in the league going up against the 24th 3PT% D of the Hornets. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team at 46.1% (22nd) which will have a tough time exploiting a Hawks defense that is 22nd in FG% allowed. We like the Hawks here playing with quick revenge from the loss just a few days ago on their home court when the Hornets were at full strength (Diabate and Bridges combined for 21 rebounds and 37 points in that game). The road team has covered 3 of the last four meetings is this series. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -8 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET - The Phoenix Suns have one very strong trend working in their favor in this matchup and that’s a blistering 25-11 ATS record in conference play this season. Conversely, Dallas is the worst team in the NBA in conference play with a 12-22 ATS mark. The Suns are winning at home by an average of plus +5.6ppg on the season. The Mavs are losing on the road by that same average but it’s a negative number of minus -5.6ppg. Dallas is 2-10 SU in their last twelve road games. Phoenix is off a loss in this game and that’s been a favorable betting situation this season as they are 14-7 ATS when coming off an ‘L’. The Mavs are a poor 3PT shooting team at 34.5% on the season (25th) and will find it difficult against a Suns D that has the 5th best 3PT% defense allowing 34.7%. Granted the Mavs defend the arc better than anyone but the Suns should have above average success here with the 10th best 3PT% in the NBA at 36.5%. Phoenix is also the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league and 7th in second chance points which will be the deciding factor in this outcome. Lay it with the Sun over the Mavs.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +7.5 at Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Jazz and fade the Heat who are off a game yesterday in Washington. Not only that, but the Heat had two huge games prior to that against the Celtics and Hawks and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. Utah is playing their 5th straight road game but had yesterday off and previously played in Orlando so travel is not an issue. The Jazz have looked much better in recent games with a 7-point loss at Toronto, a win in Indiana, a 2-point loss in Atlanta and a 3-point loss to the Magic (4-0 ATS). Utah actually has a pretty solid roster now with Nurkic, Markkanen, Jackson Jr (Memphis trade), Baily and George as their starting five. Miami will be missing two of their leading scorers on Monday with Powell and Herro both listed as out here. Miami is a respectable 14-12 ATS at home this season but their average MOV is +4.3ppg which isn’t enough to get it done tonight against the Jazz and the points. Scheduling can’t be overlooked in this one so while Miami may win, we expect it to be close.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 vs LA Clippers 3 PM ET - The Clippers made a few big deals at the trade deadline when they shipped two starting veterans in Zubac and Harden to Indiana and Cleveland. They brought in some youth with Garland, Mathurin and Jackson but those three are not expected to play here. The Clippers are 1-2 SU in their last three games after going on a torrid streak with Harden/Zubac on their roster. We expect a regression in their game in the short term as the new starters will need to acclimate to the new scheme in L.A. Clearly the oddsmakers are suggesting the same as they set this line higher than normal. They are baiting us into betting on the Clippers and we won’t fall for the trap. The Wolves are coming off a disappointing loss to the Pelicans at home and should bounce back in this one. Minnesota is 5-2 SU in their last seven games and have been solid at home this season with a 17-9 SU record. The Wolves have won 5 straight against the Clippers and should enjoy an advantage from beyond the arc in this one. Minnesota is the 4th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA and the Clippers rank 25th in 3PT% defense. That will be the difference in this one and gets the Wolves a double-digit home win.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:40PM ET - This is going to be a battle between depleted rosters as both teams have key contributors out for tonight’s contest. Of the two teams, the Lakers are in much better shape. Los Angeles will be without Luka tonight but the Warriors look like a MASH unit with both Curry brothers out, Jimmy Butler is lost for the season, Porzingis is not ready to suit up and Podziemski is listed as questionable. The Lakers also have Austin Reaves back in the lineup after missing extended time so he can pick up the scoring void left by Luka. Reaves scored 35 points in limited action in the Lakers last game versus the 76ers. L.A. has won two straight and 7 of their last ten games. In that 10-game stretch they have the 9th best Net rating in the NBA and the impressive part is that 8 of those 10 games were on the road. Golden State is more pretender than contender and have a 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games with the 15th rated Net rating. The Lakers played well against the red hot Sixers the other night with Luka missing the majority of that game after getting injured. Golden State’s defense is not as good as their reputation ranking 18th in opponents FG%, allowing 47% on the season. That will be a problem against the best shooting team in the NBA as the Lakers check in with a team FG% of 49.9%. The Lakers are the much healthier team here and should win this home over the Warriors by 8+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 227 Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This is a value bet according to our model which is projecting 230.3 total points being scored in this game. Miami comes into the game playing at the fastest rate in the NBA at 104.3 average possessions per game. They are a below average team in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but average 120ppg as a result of pace. The Heat are 4th in fast break points per game and 3rd in points in the paint. Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.220-points per possession. They don’t need a lot of possessions to score 116ppg because of their high volume of 3PT attempts (2nd most in the NBA). The Celtics rank 10th in 3PT% and have the 9th best eFG% in the league at 55.4%. Miami is expected to have Norman Powell (leading scorer) and Andrew Wiggins back for this game so their starting lineup is mostly intact (missing Herro who has been out 11 games). Boston is healthy after giving Brown and Hauser rest in their last game against the Rockets. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two teams and those two games had O/U’s set of 231.5 and 234.5. Both games finished with 233 or more total points. We expect similar results tonight and will side with the OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - The Mavericks made some big trade noise yesterday and made a statement of building around Cooper Flagg through the draft in the future when they sent Anthony Davis to Washington. Tonight, they will have a reduced roster as many players will not be available, plus PJ Washington is out and starting center Gafford is questionable. The Spurs are coming off a game last night but only one player on the roster played more than 30 minutes and they’re as deep as any team in the league. Dallas is mired in a 5-game losing streak and a big reason why is their regression in shooting percentages at 43.9% over that stretch which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. They are not a good 3PT shooting team to begin with at 34.2% (26th) and have been even worse in that same stretch of games shooting just 31.9% from deep. San Antonio has the 6th best efficiency differential in the NBA at plus +5.1 and are only 1 of four teams in the entire NBA that rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Spurs are capable of winning on the road as they’ve shown this season with a 15-10 SU away record. We like San Antonio by 9+ points.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +5 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This game has extra meaning for the coaches as Rockets head man Ime Udoka was the Celtics coach before getting fired for inappropriate behavior prior to the 2022 season. Joe Mazzulla was named interim coach before getting the gig full time. The Celtics made a big trade yesterday and landed center Vucevic of the Bulls for Simons who didn’t fit in Boston’s rotation. We mention that as there aren't more trade rumors swirling around these locker rooms, so we don’t have to worry about those distractions with our wager tonight. Boston grades out higher in our power ratings than the Rockets and would be favored on a neutral court yet are getting a generous +5.5 points here. A big reason is the fact that they played last night in Dallas. But no team in the NBA is better than Boston when playing without rest. The Celtics have gone 35-13 SU under Mazzulla when playing without rest and have an average margin of victory in those games of +9.4ppg. That’s way too big of a sample size to be a fluke. The Rockers were recently favored by -3.5 at home vs. the Wolves, -4.5 and -2.5 at home against the Spurs which tell you enough about this number. Boston is 16-10 SU on the road this season with the second best average MOV of +6.8ppg, behind only the Thunder. The Rockets are 17-4 SU on their home floor but the average MOV in those games is +7.6 which barely gets a cover in this one. Even if KD suits up for this game, we like the Dog and the points.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228.5 NY Knicks at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - The Knicks have won 6 straight games and it’s not about their offense. New York has a defensive efficiency rating of .941 points per possession allowed in their last 5 games, best in the NBA. They are holding opponents to 90.2ppg, allowing 43.4% shooting overall and 34% from beyond the arc in that same stretch. Do you know who’s been the worst offensive team in the league in the month of January? You guessed it, the Washington Wizards! The Wiz have an offensive net rating of 107.5 in January, scoring just 110ppg. They have an eFG% of 52.8%, 7th lowest average in January. The Wiz aren’t a great defensive team by any means, but they have held 5 of their last seven opponents to 112 or less points. New York is coming off a marquee game against the Lakers on Sunday and have 3 HUGE games looming against the Nuggets, Pistons and Celtics so they’ll be content with a win and won’t look to run the score up in this one. Bet UNDER!

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 10 PM ET - The Sixers lineup took a hit with the announcement that Paul George is suspended for a drug violation. I wonder if they’ll ever drug test LeBron? George had been playing well and it looked like the 76ers were rounding into form. Philly was playing well with a 6-4 SU record in their last 10 games, but a closer look reveals 9 of those ten were at home. Not only that, but only one of those six wins came against a team with a winning record. The Sixers went 10-7 SU in January with an average +/- of +2.4ppg. The Clippers have flipped the switch and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league. L.A. had won 16 of their last twenty games and then were coming off a loss in Denver most recently. They responded immediately last night with a big win at Phoenix and I expect them to ride momentum from the win over the Suns and parlay it into a home win over the Sixers too! The Clippers had the 9th best Net rating in the NBA in the month of January at +3.3 and were 6-1 SU in the month at home with an average MOV of +7.7ppg. L.A. They already started the new month with a blowout win and that was even without Harden (personal) who might be back here. Either way I like the home team here off the 24-point margin easy blowout win last night. Lay it with the Clippers.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:10 pm ET - Two of the bigger markets square off Sunday in a West vs. East showdown when the Lakers travel to New York to face the Knicks. This will be L.A.’s 7th straight road game and it comes against a Knicks team that has won 5 straight. The Lakers have won 4 of their six road games on this trip but they lost to the two teams of the Knicks caliber (Cavs and Clippers). Los Angeles beat a bad Washington team most recently by 32-points but had lost prior to that game by 30 in Cleveland. The Lakers have an impressive SU road record of 17-10 SU but surprisingly have a negative scored margin despite the winning record. A big part of that is their strength of schedule on the road. New York on the other hand is 19-6 SU on their home court with the second highest average scoring differential of +10.5ppg in the Garden. The Knicks went through a mini-slump and lost 4 straight games but since, have ripped off 5 straight wins and all but one of those came by double-digits. These are two big brands with some of the biggest stars in the game, but the Knicks are significantly better with the 5th best overall efficiency differential compared to the Lakers 17th. This line is light according to our metrics and we will side with the home team Knicks in this one.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -12.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 3:40pm ET - The Bucks season is swirling down the drain as we speak with the trade talks surrounding the entire team and players potentially being dealt with Giannis. The root of the problem in Milwaukee though is GM Horst and head coach Doc Rivers. That is another story I can’t go into right now. As for today, at first glance this seems like a high number for Boston to cover but in reality, it’s not. The Celtics were just favored by 12-points at home against the Kings and even -10.5 recently versus the Pacers so this double-digit number is not out of line. The Bucks were also recently a +10.5 point dog in Philadelphia, lost by 17-points and the Sixers aren’t as good as the Celtics are right now. Boston has the second-best average scoring margin in the month of January overall and the 2nd best Net rating. The Bucks will have problems containing the Celtics offense in this one as they allow the 3rd most 3PT attempt rate at 43.5% and Boston takes the 3rd most 3-pointers in the league. Milwaukee’s defense overall isn’t good ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.173-points per possession on the season. Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league averaging 1.211PPP. The Bucks offense is even worse, ranking 23rd in oEFF and will have a tough time scoring against the C’s 12th ranked defense. Milwaukee is reliant on their 3PT shooting but the Celtics defend the arc as well as anyone in the NBA.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232 New Orleans Pelicans Philadelphia 76ers 7:30 p.m. ET - Philly's been lighting it up lately, posting the third-best team eFG% over their last five games and averaging over 116 PPG in that stretch. Tyrese Maxey is on fire at 29.4 PPG with elite shooting splits (47.3% FG, 38.7% from three), and when he's attacking and pulling defenders, the floor opens for everyone else. The Sixers rank sixth in rim attacks and convert at a high clip with the league's fourth-best FT% (81.4%) — they get downhill, draw contact, and rack up points methodically. New Orleans has had their struggles with a 13-37 record, but they lead the league in rim-attack frequency — they push volume inside even if efficiency's dead last. That paint-heavy style can lead to high-possession games, especially against a Philly D that's just average (allowing 1.151 points per possession). The Pels give up the most three-point attempts in the NBA (45.3%), a glaring weakness that Maxey and Philly's shooters will feast on. NOLA's coming off a big home win last night (scored well in that one), but on the back-to-back with travel and fatigue, their defense (27th in efficiency, 1.197 PPP allowed) likely cracks open more — they won't get stops consistently against this Sixers attack. We expect plenty of points in this one to push it OVER the total.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs 12pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets are catching +4.5 at home against the San Antonio Spurs early this afternoon tilt. San Antonio rolls in at 32-15, sitting pretty near the top of the West, but dig deeper and the shine fades: they've gone a middling 9-8 SU their last 17 games, alternating wins and losses over the past two weeks with setbacks to squads like Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans that aren’t playing near as well as the Hornets are right now. No back-to-back road wins since before the holidays, and while their road numbers look solid (15-9 SU away, +3.6 eDIFF on the road, +3.9 average scoring margin), that margin won't reliably cover a -4.5 spread against a red-hot Hornets. Meanwhile, the Hornets (21-28) are the hottest story in the East right now, riding a five-game win streak and leading the NBA in net rating for January. Their season eDIFF sits at +1.6 (12th league-wide), but over the last five? A blistering +17.6 eDIFF, second only to the Knicks. Charlotte's offense ranks fifth in 3P% at 37.3%, primed to exploit a Spurs perimeter D that's middle-of-the-pack (17th, allowing 36% from deep). The Hornets have covered in two of their last three as home dogs and we expect them to keep this game close throughout or win outright.

ASA NBA play on New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 7:30 p.m. ET - Injuries continue to wreck the Grizzlies — they're missing Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), Santi Aldama (knee), Brandon Clarke (calf), and Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) again, with Ty Jerome listed as doubtful (calf). That's a brutal hit to their backcourt, frontcourt depth, and interior presence. Memphis has dropped four straight, including a home loss to these same Pelicans just a week ago. Meanwhile, New Orleans is a bad team at 12-37, worst in the West, but they're showing signs of life. They've gone 2-1 in their last three straight up (the loss coming against the defending champs OKC Thunder), and over the last ten games they've won four while posting a more respectable net rating (18th league-wide) compared to Memphis sitting at 24th. The Pels attack the rim at an elite clip (No. 1 in frequency), which is bad news for a Grizzlies defense that's ranked 24th against rim attacks and 25th in three-point attempts allowed. Memphis loves post-ups (second in frequency), but without their bigs and Morant creating chaos, that identity gets neutralized quickly in NOLA's paint-focused scheme. The Pels shoot threes like they're allergic (dead last percentage), but they don't need to bomb from deep here — just keep pounding inside against a shorthanded, vulnerable Memphis frontcourt. Head-to-head, Grizz have taken two of three this season, but the latest meeting flipped the script with NOLA winning outright. This line feels light given Memphis' depletion and road struggles (1-5 SU road/neutral games). Pelicans cover the -2 at home.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 226 Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:40pm ET - These two defensive powerhouses met back in late December on this same Target Center floor and combined for just 219 total points with an O/U set around 232 finishing well UNDER. We expect another low-scoring grind tonight in what should be a heavyweight battle of elite defenses. The Thunder enter as one of the league's premier defensive units, ranking No. 1 in defensive efficiency on the season allowing just around 1.069 points per possession and holding opponents to the lowest FG% in the NBA. Minnesota, meanwhile, is no slouch on that end either— they rank among the top defensive teams league-wide, anchored by Rudy Gobert and a stout interior presence. Their home defense has been particularly stingy allowing 1.084PPP – the 3rd lowest number in the NBA. Neither team plays at a blistering pace—OKC is average, Minnesota 10th in pace —and when these two meet, the tempo grinds to a halt. The December clash saw poor shooting nights from both sides (around 37% FG for each), limited transition opportunities, and a focus on defense over offense. The line opened a touch higher but settled here at 226.5, and our model sees this staying comfortably in the low 220s or even dipping below. Three straight UNDERS are about to be four in a row in this series.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231 Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, 7:30pm ET - These same two teams recently met in Atlanta and combined for 238 total points with the C’s winning 132-106. That made 3 straight games between these two teams of 230 or more total points being scored and 6 of the last seven. In the most recent game on Jan 17th we saw 193 field goal attempts which is 15 attempts higher than league average. Granted the Celtics shot extremely well at 51% overall and 42% from deep, but the Hawks were well below their standards at 37% overall and 33% from beyond the arc. Atlanta is starting to jell offensively and are coming off 132 points against the Pacers two nights ago. The Hawks had 3 players (Daniels, Alexander-Walker and McCollum) all score 20 plus, then had 4 others score 12 or more points. The Celtics are coming off a low scoring/possession game with the Blazers and will be anxious to put up a big number in this one. Boston has the best offensive efficiency rating in the league at home this season at 1.216-points per possession and face an Atlanta D that is in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Atlanta is the 2nd fastest paced team in the league which has them ranked 9th in points per game at 117.8. We are not asking these two teams to produce a ridiculously high number here, we are just asking them to be slightly better than NBA average (231.6ppg). Bet OVER here.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8pm ET - Scheduling and rest will play an important role in tonight’s outcome between these two Eastern Conference foes. Philly is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days. Milwaukee had their most recent game cancelled with poor weather so they’ve had 4 full days off going into tonight. The Bucks have covered 6 of their last 8 in that scenario dating back to 2023. Granted, the Bucks will be without Giannis tonight who is expected to miss the next 6 weeks with an injury but there is still enough talent on this roster to keep tonight’s game within double-digits. Milwaukee is 11-12 ATS on the road this season with an average negative margin of -4.9ppg, good enough for a cover in this one. The Sixers are 11-14 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of -0.8ppg. Philadelphia doesn’t shoot it great at 45.6% (26th) which makes it difficult to cover big numbers. In fact, the 76ers have only been double-digit chalks 5 times this season. Within the past 2 weeks the 76ers were -7 at home against the Pacers and won by 9-points. The Bucks without Giannis grade out better than Indiana. The Bucks have been double-digit dogs just 3 times this season and they’ve covered all three. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8:10 pm ET - Why are the Lakers favored here? This line makes absolutely no sense given the current play of both teams. Chicago has won 4 straight games and 6 of their last eight. Included in that run are impressive wins over the Clippers, T’Wolves and most recently the Celtics. In fact, in the games against the Celtics on Saturday the Bulls were +3.5-points at home and Boston grades out significantly higher in our power rating than the Lakers. Chicago has the 3rd best average scoring differential in the NBA over the past 5-games at +11.0ppg. In that same stretch of games, they have the best overall eFG% at 60.9% and tonight they face a Lakers D that is 25th in defensive net rating on the season. L.A. ranks 27th in opponents’ FG% allowed at 48.6% and is 25th in 3PT% D. The Bulls are top 10 in both overall team FG% for the year and 3PT%. The Lakers are coming off a win in Dallas on Saturday which was a meaningful game to Luka against his old mates. The Lakers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine road games and the 3 wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Mavs, Nuggets w/out Jokic and Pelicans. Chicago has won 7 of their last eight at home. Back the Bulls in this one.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 9 :10pm ET - Even without Kawhi Leonard we like the Clippers minus the points over the reeling Nets. These two teams are heading in direct opposite directions right now with the Clippers on a 14-3 SU streak, the Nets are 2-12 SU their last 14. L.A. is 7-1 SU their last eight at home with a net rating of +9.5, the 3rd best differential in the NBA over that span of games. The Clippers an eFG% of 55.9% in that same 8-game stretch and have been shooting lights out. When it comes to Net ratings, only the Jazz have a worse number than the Nets who are minus -10.2 over their last 15 games. Brooklyn has an average loss margin of -9.9ppg over that same 15-game period. The Clippers 8-1 SU streak at home is really impressive when you consider 7 of those eight wins all came by 8 or more points. Even without Leonard tonight we like the Clippers to notch a double-digit win over the struggling Nets.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 5:30 pm ET - The Warriors season took a significant hit when they lost Jimmy Butler for the season to a knee injury. Contrary to what you might think, the immediate impact of his loss has come on the defensive end of the court as they’ve given up 145 and 123 points in their last two games. Those numbers came against two teams that rank in the bottom of the league in offensive net ratings (Dallas, Toronto). Minnesota is mired in their own losing streak that currently stands at 4 games, but in their defense three of those came against a red hot Bulls team, the Spurs and the Rockets. The Wolves are the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and rank 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.136PPP. In fact, the Wolves are one of only three teams in the NBA to rank top 10 in both oEFF and dEFF. Not only will we see a continued decline in the Warriors defensive statistics, but they’ll suffer offensively too without Butlers 20ppg and 5.6rpg. Minnesota clearly gets up for games against the Warriors as they’ve now won 5 straight in the series and all of those W’s have come by 5 or more points. Lay it here with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 230.5 Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Celtics are off a game last night and will do everything in their power to slow the Bulls down tonight in their building. Boston is the slowest paced team in the NBA overall and has a 5-2 Under record this season when playing without rest. Chicago is one of the fastest paced teams in the league at 101.5 possessions per game, but they have slowed in their last 5 games with 99 possessions per game which is 11th fastest. Both teams are playing significantly better on the defensive end of the court in recent games with each team ranking top 12 in defensive efficiency in their last 5-games (Celtics 5th, Bulls 12th). These same two teams met in early January and produced 216 total points. Last season, three of the four meetings finished with 225 or less points. There are some clear betting indicators that are signaling UNDER in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:40pm ET - These same two teams met just about 2 weeks ago in Denver and produced 212 total points. That was with Denver missing 5 of their top seven players including Jokic and Murray. That previous game, plus the Nuggets coming off an extremely low scoring game last night in Washington, has forced the oddsmakers to set an unusually low number on this game. Denver is 6-2 to the OVER when playing without rest this season and those games have gone OVER by an average of +5.3ppg. This game is going to feature two of the best shooting teams in the NBA and two average or below defenses. The Nugs are the best shooting team in the NBA at 49.8% and hit 39.7% from deep (1st) but they rank 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.180-points per possession. Milwaukee ranks 5th in team FG% at 48.3% and are the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the league, but like the Nuggets they don’t play great defense ranking 21st in dEFF. We won’t need a lot of possessions in this game to cash this bet with a number that is more than 15-points lower than the league average. The Bucks and their opponents have scored 216 or more points in 8 straight games at the Fiserv Forum. In the Nuggets 25 road games this season they have combined with their opponent to score 216 or more points 23 times. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232.5 Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30pm ET - The Suns are currently playing their 6th straight road game in Atlanta and looking forward to going back home after this game. To start this road trip the Suns played in Miami which gives us a great comparison for tonight’s outcome. Phoenix and Miami had an O/U number of 233.5 and went well OVER that number with 248 total points. The comparison between Miami/Atlanta is this: They both play at a high rate ranking 1st and 2nd in pace, have comparable offensive efficiency stats and the Hawks are far worse defensively. Atlanta is going to put up points and give them up in this game. As we mentioned, the Hawks are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA and will force tempo. The offense hasn’t been great in recent games as they’re working on incorporating the new trade pieces of McCollum and Kispert into the lineup. In their most recent game against the Grizzlies (246 total points) the offense started to click with 47% shooting overall and 44% from deep. Plus, the Suns defense on this road trip hasn’t been as good as their overall season statistics as they are allowing 1.166-points per possession in their last 5 games compared to the 1.133PPP they allow on the season. Phoenix also has Jalen Green back in the lineup who provides additional offensive firepower for the Suns. In the last 5 meetings between these two teams they have combined for 238 or more total points. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10pm ET - I knew this was a bad number immediately and the Heat shouldn’t be favored on the road against the Blazers and to no surprise the line moved quickly to Portland as the favorite. The Blazers are playing well right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games overall and they’ve won 7 of their last eight at home. Portland has the 8th best Net rating of +5.3 in the NBA over that 10-games span. On the flip side, the Heat are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games and they have the 26th worst Net rating in that time frame of -5.9. Miami has been even worse on the road in recent games with a 1-4 SU record their last 5 away from home with a negative Net rating of minus -13.7. Earlier this season the Heat were +3.5 points at home against the Blazers and won 136-131. This time around it’s the home team Blazers that notch the win.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 226.5 Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:40 pm ET - Both teams are beat up right now with several key players less than 100%. OKC’s injury list includes Caruso, Williams, Hartenstein, and the 'other' J. Williams. The Bucks current injury report includes Turner, Porter Jr and Giannis is on a minutes restriction. The Bucks defense isn’t what it should be considering this roster but they still have the 12th best FG% defense in the league. The Thunder have the best defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing 1.068 points per possession and the #1 FG% D in the NBA. OKC is average in terms of pace of play and the Bucks are much slower at 98.4 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Last season these two teams met 3 times with the UNDER going 3-0 and those three games averaged just over 208 total points per game. Injuries, tempo and defense have us on the UNDER in this one.

ASA play on: Chicago Bulls -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 8PM ET - The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Washington on Monday, and they've struggled significantly in these situations this season. They've gone 1-5 straight up when playing without rest, with an average loss margin of -6.3 points per game on the second day of a back-to-back — that's a clear fatigue and performance drop-off for a road-weary squad. Meanwhile, the Bulls are rolling at home. They just crushed the Nets by 22 points on Sunday, extending their current home winning streak to 3 straight. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 at the United Center. We like the Bulls at home here.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -4 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The biggest game on the docket tonight is this one and we will be on the home team minus the points. San Antonio is at a clear scheduling disadvantage here having played last night against the Jazz. This will also be the Spurs 3rd game in 4 nights, 4th in six days AND 7th in eleven days. Absolutely a horrible schedule situation for San Antonio. Meanwhile the Rockets have been at home since Jan 13th and have 1 day rest for tonight. Houston is 14-3 SU on their home court and the three losses have come to the three best teams in the NBA (Det, OKC, Denver) who have a combined 96-32 record. The Rockets average Margin of Victory at home is +9.1ppg this season. The Spurs are a very good road team at 13-8 SU this season but this is a tough spot. Plus, they beat the Rockets earlier this season and hold a 3.5 game lead in the division. The Rockets have an efficiency edge defensively, the Spurs have a slight advantage offensively. The advantage the Rockets can use to their advantage tonight will be 3-point shooting. The Rockets have the 6th best 3PT% (37%) going up against a Spurs D that allows 36.1% (18th). The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five in this State rivalry.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 1pm ET - One of my rules on this date is to back the Hawks who are 23-11 SU their last 34 on MLK day. It just so happens that we get a great situational bet too as the Hawks are off a blowout loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Hawks lost by 26-points in that game, but it wasn’t that close as the Celtics led by as many as 43 points. Today they bounce back against a struggling Bucks team that needs to fire their head coach and the GM who hired him. That’s a story for another day. The Hawks have the slightly better efficiency differential overall on the season at -0.9 compared to the Bucks at minus -1.4. The Bucks live and die by the 3-pointer but the Hawks allow 35.6% from deep which ranks 14th in the league. Atlanta has added scoring with McCollum and Kispert who are both great compliments for the 8th best 3PT% shooting team in the NBA. The Bucks don’t defend the arc well ranking 23rd in 3PT% D. In this early matinee we like the home team Hawks.

ASA NBA play on OVER 228.5 Portland Trailblazers at Sacramento Kings, 9PM ET - Both teams are starting to get healthy and it’s led to more wins and more scoring. The Kings have won 4 straight games and are shooting the ball significantly better in their last 5-games at 52.4% compared to their season average of 46.6%. On the season (played mostly without 3 key starters) the Kings have an eFG% of 52.5% (28th), but in their last 5 games that number is 59.3%, 3rd best in the NBA. Sacramento also has the 4th best offensive net rating in this 5 game stretch. Defensively the Kings are 21st in defensive net rating and allow over 120ppg. Portland has gotten some key pieces back in the line up too and have won 7 of their last nine games. The Blazers are allowing 118.4ppg on the season with the 17th worst defensive net rating at 115.6. Portland’s offense is 11th in net rating over their last 10 games, with an eFG% slightly lower than league average. Our model is projecting 232 total points in this game and we agree with the math. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 9 PM ET - Both teams are currently playing well right now but we like the Kings in this situation as the Blazers are in a tough scheduling spot. Portland played a big game against the Lakers last night and will be playing their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento meanwhile was off yesterday and have been at home since Jan 11th. The Kings have played without All-Star center Sabonis for most of the season but he’s back now along with Zach LaVine who missed time. Sacto has won 4 straight games and 3 of those four were legit as they came against the Lakers, Knicks and Rockets. Portland is playing well too with a 7-2 SU record in their last nine games but they will be missing a key offensive piece in this game with Avdija not expected to play as of this writing. Portland isn’t a great road team to begin with at 9-12 SU with an average loss margin of -4.9ppg. The Kings are playing with double revenge here after losing to the Blazers twice already this season. Lay the short number with Sacramento.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -3 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - We like the situation here for the Celtics and will lay the short number with the road favorite. Both teams last played Thursday on the road as the Celtics were at Miami and the Hawks were in Portland. Boston beat the Heat 119-114, the Hawks lost to the Blazers 101-117. Atlanta is in a much tougher scheduling situation here though. Since Jan 2nd they have played 8 games, seven of which were on the road, the last 4 were on the West Coast. Boston is flying under the radar right now at 23-13 SU on the season with the 3rd best efficiency differential in the league at +7.3. The C’s are 13-8 ATS on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +6.8ppg. We like what the Hawks did in trading Trae Young for a proven scoring vet like McCollum and it will pay dividends down the road, just not in this situation. Atlanta is 17th in eDIFF at -0.9 and have a 7-11 ATS home record this season, minus -2.4ppg. These two teams have similar offensive numbers but the Celtics defense is significantly better than the Hawks. Lay the short number with Boston.

ASA NBA play on OVER 215 LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40pm ET - This is a very low total based on NBA averages and numbers this season. NBA games are averaging 232.1 points per game this season and typically finish the season around 227’ish. So Vegas is suggesting this game is going to be that far below the number? We expect this game to get into the 220’s. The Clippers have found a groove with 4 straight wins and an 10-2 record in their last 12 games. The defense of the Clippers in recent weeks has been much improved but it’s the offense that has really played well. L.A. has an offensive net rating of 120.4 over their last 10 games which is the 4th highest number in the league. They also rank 5th in eFG% over that same time period. Toronto has some ‘meh’ statistics and rank near the middle of the league in FG% (47.1%) and field goal attempts but is solid on the O-boards and 12th in 2nd chance points. They are scoring just under 114ppg on the season. As we mentioned earlier, the Clippers have some great defensive stats in recent weeks but on the season this team ranks 25th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.186-points per possession. The Clippers are also 16th in FG% allowed and 21st in 3PT% allowed. We don’t need this game to be any kind of shootout, we just need it to be better than average. Easy OVER call.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 10pm ET - This is a steep price to lay with the Hawks so let’s grab the value tonight with the home team Blazers. Portland has quietly put together a 7-3 SU streak in their last 10 games but have now lost 2 in a row. They are working on some chemistry issues with Jrue Holiday and Robert Williams work their way back into the rotation. Also, Deni Avdija is out with an injury so picking up his points/assists must come from the rest of the starters. Atlanta made a big trade and sent Trae Young to the Wizards for CJ McCollum and Cory Kispert which is going to be a big upgrade for the Hawks moving forward. Atlanta is coming off a 116-141 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night as their defense allowed the Lakers to shoot 58% overall and 56% from the 3-point line. Back to the value in the number. Portland was recently +5.5 at home against the Knicks, +6.5 and +7 versus the Rockets. Atlanta grades out much lower than those two teams in our power ratings, especially considering the current play of each team right now. The Blazers have lost 2 straight games but prior had a 5 game winning streak with W’s over Houston (2x) and the Spurs. In the Hawks last 10 games they were plus +2.5 and +3.5 at Toronto which is a comparable team in this situation. The efficiency differential between these two teams is close. Portland has an eDIFF of +2.7, Atlanta is +3.6. Grab the points with the home dog in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 241.5 Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - This number opened significantly higher but has been bet down to the current number of 241.5. Our model is telling us that O/U line still isn’t low enough. On the season these two teams play at an extremely high pace, ranking top 5 in tempo. When we examine their most recent trending statistics we find that both are playing much slower in their last 5 games. On the season the Bulls average 102 possessions per game, in their last 5 games that number dips to 97.9, 22nd slowest in the league. Utah is 5th fastest in the NBA on the season with an average of 101.7 possessions per game, but in their last 5 games that average is 99.4 possessions per game. Granted, Utah is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but the Bulls have been much better on that end of the court in recent weeks. Neither team shoots it well enough for this game to get into the 240’s as the Jazz rank 21st in overall team FG% at 46.2%, the Bulls are slightly above league average of 47.2%. Both teams currently sit 20th or worse in offensive efficiency in their most recent 5 games, a clear indicator they are struggling to score. Chicago is coming off a game last night and have stayed UNDER in 4 of six games this season when playing without rest. This game doesn’t get out of the 230’s, bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a tough 4-game West Coast road trip with the most recent game being in Denver, a loss, to the Nuggets without Jokic. Minnesota is coming off a massive win over the Spurs at home and have won 5 of their last six games. We won’t get involved with a side in this game but do like a wager on the OVER. The Bucks have stayed UNDER the total in 7 of their last ten games with the three Overs coming against the fast-paced Cavaliers and Bulls. The Wolves aren’t the fastest paced team in the league but they do rank 13th in the league at 100.5 possessions per game. We expect that tempo to be even faster tonight without Rudy Gobert slowing down the offense. Also, without Gobert on the floor the Wolves defense is going to be that much worse. Minnesota is on a 7-3 OVER streak in their last ten games and have gone OVER this number in 9 straight road games. These two teams are top 4 in the NBA when it comes to eFG% shooting which means we don’t need a ton of possessions to cash an OVER bet. The Wolves are a top 5 defensive team in terms of defensive efficiency, but as we mentioned they won’t have Gobert for this game. The Bucks are 18th in dEFF allowing 1.167 points per possession (isn’t Doc Rivers supposed to be a defensive coach?). This line opened significantly higher than where it currently stands to grab the value with an OVER wager.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 7:40 pm ET - These same two teams met in late December on this same court and produced 262 total points with an O/U set of 230.5 and we predict another shootout in this meeting. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to the Spurs in which they scored just 95-points. They attempted 93 field goals but shot just 41% as a team overall and had 4 FT attempts. That was against a Spurs D that is top 6 in the league in defensive efficiency and the Pacers are not in that same defensive category. Indiana ranks 24th out of 30 teams in dEFF, allowing 1.183 points per possession. Boston should find their stroke in this game with the 12th best FG% shooting team facing a team that ranks 25th in FG% defense. Indiana’s offense has been horrendous this entire season, but in recent weeks they’ve been significantly better. In the Pacers last 8 games they have faced 7 defenses in the top 13 in terms of dEFF and has scored 110 or more in all of those games. Boston ranks 15th in dEFF on the season allowing 1.155PPP. Boston will be motivated after putting up 95-points last time out and should get to their season average of 117ppg which means we just need 110 or so out of the Pacers. We expect this game to get OVER by a comfortable margin.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 234 Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors, 8:40pm ET - The Warriors aren’t the team they used to be but still have a reputation for being a great offensive team. The facts of the matter are they rank 17th in Offensive Efficiency, are 25th in team FG% and 14th in eFG%. They also rank 12th in pace of play at 99.5 possessions per game. The Hawks like to play fast with the 2nd most possessions per game in the league, but they have an oEFF of 1.148PPP which is 18th in the NBA. Atlanta is also going to have some continuity issues with Porzingis and Rizacher coming back from injury and also adding recently acquired CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert to the rotation. Golden State is 10th in Defensive Efficiency; the Hawks are 16th. Atlanta has allowed 102 or less points in 4 of their last six games. The Warriors have held 7 of their last ten opponents to 116 or less points. We don’t see either of these teams reaching 117 or better in this game. Bet Under

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10pm ET - The health of both teams plays an important role in this handicap as the Bulls have a key component back in the lineup with Coby White, while the Mavs will be without Anthony Davis. Davis, the often injured star, could miss the remainder of the season with a hand injury. Chicago also has the benefit of extra rest coming into this game as their last game was cancelled due to moisture on the floor so the Bulls have been off since the 7th. Dallas on the other hand will be playing their 3rd straight road game with the most recent game coming in Utah on Thursday night. The Mavs have struggled on the road this season with a 4-13 SU record and an average loss margin in those games of minus -5.9ppg. The Bulls have been a much better team at home than on the road with an above .500 record on their home court of 10-9. The Bulls will enjoy a defensive rebound advantage as they rank 4th best in the league in that stat category plus they don’t turn the ball over like the Mavs do. Dallas is 24th in turnover percentage, the Bulls are 9th. Dallas is 1-6 SU this season when playing with a rest disadvantage and they’ve lost those games by an average of -10.3ppg. We like the health and scheduling advantages in this one and will back the home team to win by 6+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET - If this game goes anything like the first two meetings this season it will be an easy winner. In the two clashes between these two Eastern Conference rivals the total scoring output was 260 and 247. We don’t think we’ll see a game in the high 240’s again, but we are betting this one gets to the mid-230’s. The 76ers offense with Tyrese Maxey is hitting on all 6 cylinders right now with 139, 123, 130, 124 and 131 points scored in their last 5 games. The Sixers have the 2nd best offensive Net rating in the league in that 5-game stretch. Defensively though they’ve been average in that stretch with the 15th DNR rating in the league while giving up an average of 123.4ppg. Philadelphia gets the 3rd most field goal attempts up in the league, so we know they’ll get plenty of opportunities to score. Orlando was known for their defense but slipped on that end of the court this season and is currently ranked 13th in defensive efficiency after ranking 2nd a year ago. Offensively they’ve hovered around league average in most key stat categories including team FG% at 46.8% (16th). The Magic are coming off a low scoring game against the Nets most recently but prior to that game had played three higher scoring games with total points of 232, 262 and 235. We will be happy if this game turns out to be an ‘average’ NBA game which means 233 total points being scored.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - The Phoenix Suns (21-15) head to FedExForum as 3.5-point favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies (15-20) in a matchup that favors the visitors due to Memphis' fatigue and injury issues. The Grizzlies are coming off a big upset win over the Spurs last night and we predict a letdown. This will also be their second game in as many nights and third in four days. Memphis has also struggled as a home underdog, posting a 7-12 ATS record since the start of last season. On the flip side, we like the Suns to bounce back from a narrow 97-100 loss in Houston a few nights ago, and they've been excellent in this spot with a 10-4 ATS mark this season when coming off a defeat. In those games, Phoenix has won by an average margin of +6.4 points per game. The Suns will also be motivated for payback after dropping a tight 113-114 decision at home to the Grizzlies on October 29th. Adding to the case for Phoenix: Memphis is dealing with a lengthy injury list that could carry over from their January 6th game, including key absences like Ja Morant (calf contusion, out vs. Spurs), Zach Edey (ankle), Brandon Clarke (calf), and others, severely depleting their backcourt and frontcourt depth. The Suns, meanwhile, boast a balanced attack led by Devin Booker (25.7 PPG) and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings +5.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 11pm ET - This is as much a bet against Dallas as it is on Sacramento. The Kings have lost 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In fact, their last win was at Dallas on December 27th 113-107. They were a +3-point home dog in that game and are now catching a premium number with one of their best players returning from injury. Zach LaVine missed the last go around with Dallas but he’s back for the Kings now who desperately need his scoring. The Mavericks have lost 7 straight road games and have a 3-12 SU road record this season yet are laying points here? The Kings trailed the Bucks in their most recent game by as many as 26-points but battled back to make it respectable in the 4th Q. Dallas is the much better defensive team but offensively they are just average which makes it tough for them to win by margin. The Kings have the worst average margin of victory in the NBA at -12ppg, but the Mavs aren’t much better at -4.0ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Kings have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings with Dallas. We expect another tight game in this series tonight.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, 7:40pm ET - The Celtics are coming off an extended road trip on the West coast and will have 1 day rest heading into this contest with the Bulls. Boston put up 146 points against the Clippers but had an exceptional shooting night at 55% overall, 47% from Deep. Boston’s defense has allowed 116 or less points in 8 of their last ten games. The Bulls are going to have a hard team reaching 110+ points this game for a couple of reasons. One, we just mention how well the Celtics defense is playing, and two, the Bulls offense is struggling. Chicago is down 3 starters right now and it’s played a major role in their offense which has scored 110 or less in 4 of their last six games. In that 6-game stretch the Bulls has an eFG% of 51.3%, the 5th lowest percentage in the NBA. Chicago has the 3rd worst offensive rating over that same 6 game period. On the plus side for the Bulls, their defense has been significantly better in recent games with the 12th best defensive rating since December 23rd. In the four meetings between these two teams a year ago, three stayed well below this number. We are on the UNDER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers 3pm ET - The Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and have currently lost 11 straight games. On the year, Indiana has a 1-15 SU road record with an average loss margin of -13.8ppg. Orlando on the other hand has been solid overall and very good at home with an 11-5 record on their home court. Orlando is coming off a loss to the Bulls in their last game and will look to rebound here with a much better effort against a Pacers team they barely beat last week. The Magic were just favored by -4.5 points at Indiana so the number on Sunday’s game is a bargain. In the Pacers 11-game losing streak only 4 of the eleven losses have come by single digits. Easy call with the home team Magic in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Boston Celtics at LA Clippers, 9:40pm ET - These two teams have been stellar on the defensive side of the court but the offenses have been even better of late. For the season the Celtics rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency ratings at 1.218 points per possession. The Clippers are 12-21 SU on the season but have the 11th best oEFF at 1.160PPP. In their last 5-games the Clippers oEFF is off the charts at 1.325PPP which is best in the league. Boston stays consistent with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating over the last 5 games at 1.229PPP. The Celtics have the 7th best eFG% in the NBA at 56%, the Clippers are 11th at 55.2%. Both teams are shooting better than their season numbers over their last 5-games too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will finish 11-points less than an average NBA game this season but with how these offenses are playing this one gets to that 232 range.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, 7pm ET - Both teams come into this game having played last night and will be unrested. Each is also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. In recent years, teams playing without rest have favored the UNDER and tonight we have two teams involved in that trend. Last night the Bulls didn’t play at their typical high rate but scored 121 points as a result of shooting 50% from the field overall and 34% from Deep. Charlotte also put up 121 points against the Bucks last night, and like the Bulls, had a very good shooting night of 49% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Chicago’s pace of play for the season is 2nd fastest in the league at 102.7 but in their most recent 5 games that number has dipped slightly to 101.5. The Bulls are also shorthanded, so depth becomes a concern. Charlotte is 23rd in pace of play at 98.9 possessions per game and has been slower yet in their last 5 games at 96.2. Given the difficult scheduling situation that both teams are in, we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9 pm ET - The Kings are coming off a hard-fought game last night against the Celtics and now face a rested Suns team in their building. Sacramento is shorthanded right now with LaVine and Sabonis both out with injuries. LaVine leads the team in scoring, Sabonis leads them in rebounding. The Kings struggle to play without rest with a 5-16 ATS record dating back to the start of last season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 10+ points per game. Phoenix has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 19-14 Su record, 10-5 at home. Phoenix has solid numbers overall and rank top half of the league in efficiency differential at +1.4. In comparison, the Kings are 29th in eDIFF at -11.3. These two teams met in late November in Sacramento and the Suns won by 12-points. The Suns had won 4 straight games but are now coming off a loss to the Cavs and they’ve excelled in that situation this season with a 9-4 ATS mark. The Suns have beaten the Kings in 4 of the last five meetings in Phoenix and tonight we expect this game to get ugly late.

ASAwins NBA play on Miami Heat +4.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - We mentioned this the other day, depending on the exact circumstances, but we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Detroit. The Pistons were on the road for 5 straight games on the West coast which ended with a win against the Lakers. The betting markets are also telling us to back the Heat here as the line on this game is trending down despite a high volume of tickets and money on the Pistons. Detroit is 14-20 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season with a plus/minus in those games of +5.6. Miami is .500 as a road dog in that same time frame but their +/- is -3.1ppg in that scenario. The Pistons are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.2% but the Heat allow opponents to make just 45.6% which is 4th best defensively. The Pistons rely on forcing turnovers with their defense (3rd) but the Heat take care of the basketball with the 4th best TOV% in the league. This has been a very tight series in the past with the last 4 meetings all decided by 3-points or less and two of the last four went to OT. We expect another tight game on Thursday.

ASA NBA play on Washington Wizards +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - The Bucks have Giannis back in the lineup, but the facts are they weren’t great with him early this season and we’re not sure they should be laying double-digits here. On the season the Bucks have the 20th rated Net rating at -2.8 and they currently sit 11th in the East. Washington has a season long Net rating of -11.9 but in their last 10 games they’ve played significantly better with a Net rating of -3.8. In fact, in comparing each teams last 10 games we see the Wiz have a better scoring differential of -3.4ppg versus the Bucks at -5.1ppg. Historically we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Milwaukee as they just played 5 straight away from home. The Wizards are 2-1 SU their last 3 games with solid wins against the Raptors and Grizzlies before a 14-point loss to the Suns. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two teams with the series tied 1-1 and we expect Washington to keep this game close.

ASA NBA play on OVER 242.5 Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz, 9pm ET - The Jazz have put up two consecutive great offensive games against defenses that rate better than Boston’s. Utah scored 131 against the Pistons who rate 2nd in defensive efficiency this season and 127 against the Spurs who are 6th. The Celtics rank 15th in dEFF. We also know the Jazz are going to give up a big number defensively as they allow the most points per game at 127.1ppg and have the 2nd worst dEFF at 1.225PPP. The Jazz routinely give up 130 plus points and the Celtics, who take and make a high volume of 3’s should get to 130+. Boston is 10th in 3PT% at 36.4% and 3rd in 3PT attempts at 42.8 per game. The Jazz rank 27th in 3PT% defense and 30th in 3-pointers made per game. The Jazz will also get their fair share of 3-pointers in this game as they rank 8th in attempts and 9th in makes from beyond the arc. Boston’s defense can be exploited from beyond the arc as they rank 24th in 3PT%, 22nd in 3PT makes and 23rd in attempts allowed. We see both teams getting to 120 or more in this one which will cash this OVER in the low 240’s.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 pm ET - The Spurs are legit and can contend in the West and for a Championship, despite their youth. Cleveland has faded after a hot start going 10-13 SU in their last 23 games. In the month of November, the Cavs were 9-6 SU with an average plus/minus of +4.9ppg. In December they are 5-7 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -0.7ppg. The Spurs on the other hand are red hot right now with a 10-2 run and an average +/- of +8.3ppg in their last 12 games and that included 3 games against the Thunder. Cleveland is near average in team FG% defense and rank 16th in defensive efficiency ratings. In comparison, the Spurs are 7th in dEFF. Offensively the Spurs have the edge with the 6th best offensive efficiency, the Cavs rank 10th. Cleveland has struggled to make shots this season with the 19th rated FG% shooting at 46.4% and don’t make 3’s either at 34.9% (22nd). We like the Spurs at this short number.

ASA NBA play on OVER 232 Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, 5pm ET - Dallas started the season out by playing great defense but we are starting to see a regression for the Mavs on that end of the court. For the season the Mavericks allow 1.140-points per possession which ranks 9th best in the league. In their last 5 games though, the Mavs are allowing 1.176PPP, which ranks 20th. The Kings defense has been atrocious all season long ranking 27th in dEFF allowing 1.208PPP. We know this will be a high possession game with the Mavericks ranking 6th in pace of play at 101.5 possessions per game. The Kings like to get up and down too ranking 9th in possessions at 100.9. Both teams are shooting over 46% and the offense for the Kings has been better recently with 3 of their last four games topping 125 points. Dallas has been scoring lately too with 116 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. With a high possession game and two defenses that aren’t playing well at the moment this should be a high scoring game.

ASA NBA play on OVER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - The oddsmakers are suggesting this game is going to be less than an average NBA game this season and our model is projecting a game closer to average. NBA games this season are averaging 233.2 total points per game. Based on the efficiency data for both teams our model says 230.3. The Bucks are the 4th best FG% team in the NBA, 3rd best 3PT% team at 39.7%. Memphis allows opponents to hit 46.7% (14th) of their FG attempts on the year and 36.6% from deep (21st). The Grizzlies are still without their rim protector in Zach Edey which limits their defense on the backend and rebounding. Memphis has slipped in team rebounding with Edey out, especially defensively, dropping to 10th in the league without him, 4th best with him. Memphis is not a great shooting team on the season at 45.4% overall, 35.1% from the 3-point line but they make up for it by playing at a higher pace of play (8th fastest). The Bucks continue to be bad defensively under Doc Rivers, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency this season, 15th in opponents FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. We don’t see either team expending a lot of energy defensively tonight and both teams should knock down enough shots to go OVER this number.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -3 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:40pm ET - Minnesota is blistering hot right now with a 8-2 SU run and have won 3 straight but a closer look tells a slightly different story. Seven of those 10 games came at home, they caught a short-handed Knicks team and 4 of those wins games against the Grizzlies, Kings and Pelicans, three of the worst teams in the league. The Wolves are in a tough spot here traveling to Denver to face a Nuggets team off an upset loss to the Mavericks. Denver is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and more importantly here, they are 7-0 SU off a loss this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4ppg. Going back further, the Nuggets are 33-12 SU off a loss dating back to the start of last season +5.9ppg. When it comes to efficiency rating the Nuggets have the second-best differential in the league at +9.1, only behind the Thunder. Minnesota is a respectable +4.8 in eDIFF. Minnesota doesn’t shoot it well enough to exploit the Nuggets poor shooting defense and they’ll have a tough time getting second chance points against the 4th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Denver is the best overall FG% team in the league at 51.5% and also hit 40.6% from beyond the arc, also tops in the NBA. This has gotten to be a very good rivalry and we expect a convincing win by the home team off a loss.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -9.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2:30 pm ET - What a treat for basketball fans on Christmas Day! This is the new rivalry in the Association and it’s a good one if you haven’t been paying attention. Four weeks ago there was talk of OKC setting the all-time wins record in the NBA, setting the consecutive wins record, big favorites to win it all, everything was positive surrounding the Thunder betting markets. Then the Spurs beat them in the Cup semifinals, and everyone paused and took a breath. Then the Spurs followed up with a win on their home court Tuesday over OKC. Yes, the Spurs are a great young team right now and going to be a force to be reckoned with in the future. On Tuesday night the Spurs opened +8.5 point at home and won by 20-points. The story of the game was a ridiculously great shooting night by the Spurs 58% overall and 44% from Deep. They also attempted 24 FT’s to the Thunders 7. Those numbers will be tough to duplicate for these reasons: The Spurs shoot 48% on the season, 37% from beyond the arc AND the Thunder hold opponents to 43% shooting (#1) and 37% 3PT% (22nd). OKC has the best defensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.047-points per possession allowed and are 5th in oEFF. Oklahoma City is 14-0 SU at home and win by an average margin of +19.3ppg. The last 3 times these two teams have met in OKC the results have been double-digit wins by the Thunder. There is some bad blood here and we expect OKC to get ‘home cooking’ in this one and win going away.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:10pm ET - Both of these teams are coming off games last night which impacts this total, plus they both have Christmas Day games looming. We mentioned the lack of rest tonight as these teams combined have gone OVER the total in 26 of 39 games dating back to the start of last season when playing the second night of a B2B. We also don’t expect either team to expend a ton of energy on the defensive end of the court with big games on Thursday. That should lead to a higher scoring game much like their last meeting in early December when they combined for 252 total points. Dallas is the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA and get their scoring from volume. The Nuggets play slow but are the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.255-points per possession so they score with efficiency. Dallas isn’t a great shooting team on the season but they’ve been much better in their last 5 games (w/Anthony Davis in the lineup) hitting 48.1% from the field. Denver has an average defense and allows opponents to hit 46.6% from the field on the season. In their last 5 games their FG% defense has been worse yet. We know Denver is going to make shots no matter who they play as they are the #1 FG% team in the league, 3rd best from beyond the arc. Bet OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - The Magic are the better team in this matchup and are worth a bet as a road dog in this scenario. The season long statistics don’t lie, and the Magic have an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +3.1 compared to the Warriors at +1.2. Orlando has also faced the tougher overall schedule and still rates better. The Magic were just +4.5 at Denver a few nights ago and the Nuggets are a top 4 team in the NBA. Golden State is 1-3 SU in their last four games and the lone win coming at home against the Suns by 3-points as a -4.5 point favorite. The Magic are 6-7 SU on the road but have a positive road differential of +2.6ppg. Golden State has a +6.7ppg average differential at home and stands 8-4 SU. These same two teams met in Orlando in mid-November, and the Magic came out on top 121-113 playing without Banchero, who is healthy and back in the lineup. With the Warriors coming off a win and having a big game on deck Christmas day against the Mavs we will play against them here.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - These same two teams met in San Antonio last week and produced 213 total points with the Spurs winning 119-94. The first matter we need to address is the Wizards defense, which is one of the worst in the league allowing 1.238-points per possession on the season. They have been better lately though, allowing 1.199PPP in their last 5 games. On the subject of defense, the young Spurs are figuring it out and are one of the best units in the NBA and only getting better. San Antonio put the clamps on the Thunder in the Cup semi-finals and played at a very high level. On the season the Spurs are 5th in dEFF allowing 1.130PPP. In their last 5 games that number dips to 1.088PPP allowed per game. San Antonio is average in terms of pace of play this season, the Wizards are 9th fastest but they are continually slowing as the season has progressed. In their last 5 games the Wiz average 98.2 possessions per game which is 23rd slowest in the league. The Spurs are highly efficient on the offensive end; the Wizards are not. We see this game playing out very similarly to last Thursday’s game and even if the Spurs play way above expectations offensively and score 130 there is still a good chance the Wizards don’t reach 100. San Antonio has two HUGE games on deck against the Thunder and will be happy to win and go home. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239.5 Portland Trailblazers at Sacramento Kings, 10:10pm ET - This is a quick rematch game from Thursday night as these same two teams met in Portland on Thursday. The Blazers won that game 134-133 in OT. At the end of regulation these two teams had combined for 230 total points which obviously stays under the total. Both teams shot unusually well in that game with the Kings hitting 51% from the field, the Blazers shot 48%. On the season the Blazers shoot 44.6% (29th), the Kings are at 46.6% from the floor as a team which ranks 18th in the NBA. Granted, both teams are bad defensively, but neither are great offensively with the Blazers 16th in offensive efficiency, the Kings are 29th. Both teams are missing key offensive weapons, especially the Kings who are without Sabonis and LaVine for tonight’s contest. Portland has played in two straight higher scoring games but prior to that had topped 120 points just twice in their last 8 games. Sacramento’s offense has really struggled in their last 9 games prior to Thursday with 8 of nine below 120 and in 6 of those they didn’t break 110. In this quick turnaround rematch we don’t see these two teams getting to 240. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 7:40pm ET - If you are a value numbers bettor then this play is for you. These same two teams just met on Wednesday in Chicago with the Cavs favored by -5.5 points. The Bulls won that game 127-111 but the line on the game is what has our attention, not the outcome. If Cleveland was favored by -5.5 in Chicago that means they should be at least -13 on their home court. In fact, the Cavs were just favored by -12.5 at home against the Hornets which is a fair comparison. Granted, the Cavaliers aren’t playing their best basketball right now but this team won 64 games a year ago with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a season long eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +2.7 which ranks them 11th best in the NBA. Cleveland is 45-17 SU their last 52 home games with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. Chicago is a below .500 team at 11-15 SU on the season with an eDIFF of minus -5 which is 23rd overall in the NBA. The Bulls are a slightly better than average shooting team at 47.1% on the season but had an uncharacteristically great night against the Cavs on Wednesday, hitting 56% from the field. Chicago is 4—9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.3ppg. The Cavs had won 5 in a row in this series prior to Wednesday and we expect them to get back on track tonight with a revenge win by double-digits.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7pm ET - The Knicks were clearly a little hungover from their Cup championship win in Vegas over the Spurs on Tuesday night as they barely escaped Indiana with a win. NY trailed by as many as 16-points in the game and were playing shorthanded with Hart and Towns both out. That means, Brunson, Bridges and Anunoby had to shoulder the load. The 76ers have been off since December 14th and will come into this game fresh, rested and ready to play. Philly is 4-2 SU in their last six games and are starting to figure out their rotations with Paul George and Joel Embiid logging more minutes. Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey and his 31.5ppg will be back in the lineup tonight after missing two games with an illness. New York swept the 76ers in the four meetings a year ago but all the wins were relatively close with one game decided by 5 points and another by 6-points in OT. The Knicks have struggled with playing without rest going 5-13 ATS in that scheduling situation their last 18 games. They’ve also lost those games by an average of -2.7ppg. Scheduling clearly favors the Sixers in this one. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - Wow! If you are a ‘value’ bettor, you have come to the right place on Thursday night. The Raptors and Bucks have already met twice this season and the oddsmakers set O/U’s of 235.5 and 237.5 respectively and now we get a number of 220. Much of that has to do with the Raptors offense that has scored 113 or less in four games in a row and a Bucks team that just scored 82 against the Nets. The rest factor in tonight’s game suggests a higher scoring game as teams with long breaks tend to score more points. The Raptors are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% and should see the ball go in against a Bucks defense that is 17th in FG% defense allowing 47.3%. Conversely, the Bucks shoot at the 4th best rate in the league at 49.1%, the Raptors are closer to average in FG% allowed defense at 46.4%. Milwaukee is the #1 rated 3PT% shooting team in the league; the Raptors are 13th so we don’t need as many possessions in this game to get OVER this number. Remember, the league average in the NBA this season is 232.2ppg so it’s not like we are asking these two teams to score a ridiculously high point total. 9 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has resulted in more points than tonight’s O/U.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10pm ET - The Thunder look to rebound after their upset loss in Cup play to the Spurs and we expect an offensive explosion in this one. OKC is putting up an average of 123.1ppg on the season, 2nd most in the NBA. They play at a moderate pace (14th) but are highly efficient, ranking 4th in oEFF. Not to mention they will be facing a Clippers defense that is one of the worst in the league allowing 1.197-points per possession. The Clippers are struggling this season but still average 111.3ppg on 47% shooting. OKC should knock down plenty of 3’s in this game with the 6th best 3PT% offense facing the 30th ranked Clipper 3PT% defense. Even without James Harden tonight the Clippers should get to 100+ points and we are confident the Thunder will get to 120+. We are on the OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 234.5 San Antonio Spurs vs. NY Knicks, 8:30 pm ET - The Cup Finals are here! Who really cares other than us degenerate gamblers. Kidding aside, this should be a very entertaining NBA game with the up-and-coming Spurs and the veteran Knicks, in what should be a very competitive game. We are going to grab the value and bet UNDER. This line opened significantly lower than where it currently stands and our model agrees with what Vegas set originally and projects 227 total points being scored. These two teams are top 14 in defensive efficiency ratings overall and have some very good metrics within those overall numbers. The Knicks allow the 4th fewest points in the paint, the Spurs the 7th lowest. San Antonio allows the 2nd fewest fast break points per game, the Knicks 12th fewest. The Spurs give up the 3rd fewest 2nd chance points per game, New York gives up the 8th fewest. We make that point because those numbers suggest nothing will be easy or cheap in this one. The Spurs defense was outstanding against the Thunder, holding the best offense in the NBA to 109 total points. NY is coming off a higher scoring game against the Magic but shot incredibly well at 61% (average 48% on the season). In two meetings between these two teams last season they produced 231 and 224 total points. With the Cup on the line tonight we expect both teams to ramp up their defensive intensity and limit scoring opportunities. Bet the UNDER.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10:40pm ET - The Grizzlies went through a stretch of playing really well with wins in 7 of nine games. Then they lost Zach Edey to injury and got Ja Morant back from injury. They proceeded to lose at home to the lowly Jazz most recently after the lineup change. Without Edey’s rim protection and Morant’s horrible shooting (7/20) the Grizzlies are a much worse team. This is a great opportunity to buy low on the Clippers who have lost 11 of their last fourteen games. A closer look though and you see that 12 of those 14 were on the road and 9 of those came against teams with winning records. Also included in that stretch of games is a pair of losses to this Grizzlies team, which had Edey in the lineup and were without the distraction of Morant in both. The Clippers were recently a -2-point favorite at Memphis and were laying -6.5 at home in late November. Los Angelese looked much better in their two most recent losses to the Timberwolves and Rockets, two of the best teams in the West, and should get a convincing home win in this one after 3 days rest. The Clippers have an average +/- of +5.5ppg when playing on 2-3 days rest dating back to the start of last season and are also 22-16-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2024. We like the Clippers by 8+.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 at Brooklyn Nets, 6pm ET - The Bucks are coming off their most complete game of the season, a win over the Celtics, and we like that momentum to carry over here. Brooklyn has been playing better of late but they are still one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets are 3-2 SU their last five but the wins have come against the Pelicans, Bulls and Hornets who have a combined 21-54 record. Milwaukee beat the Nets at home in late November 116-99 and were minus -11.5 points in that game. That means they should be at least -3.5-points here. The Bucks 4th best team FG% should feast on a Nets D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowed. Lay it with the Bucks.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -11 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 9pm ET - This is the NBA Cup’s semi finals and decides who will represent the West in the Cup Finals. If you haven’t been paying attention the Thunder are on a whole different planet right now compared to the rest of the NBA. OKC is 24-1 SU on the season and the one game they lost they were up 22 before a late game collapse. There are many futures bets available on this team setting all kinds of records including most wins ever in a season. The Thunder have won 16 straight games by an average of 21ppg. For the season the Thunder are winning games by an average of +17.5ppg, they have an average road differential of +15.7ppg. When it comes to efficiency ratings the Thunder are 4th offensively and 1st defensively. The Spurs are having a nice season and have great young players, but this team is not quite ready to challenge the Thunder who are on a mission after losing in the Cup finals a year ago to Milwaukee. San Antonio will get Wemby back for today’s game, but they will disrupt their flow and the chemistry they’ve built in their current 9-3 SU run without him. In OKC’s current winning streak, only one has not come by double-digits. Lay it with the Thunder.

ASA NBA play on OVER 240.5 Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - We will get plenty of possessions in this game for what should be a higher scoring affair. The Jazz play at the 5th fastest rate in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 10th. Memphis should see an increase in their pace of play with the return of PG Ja Morant who will look to push tempo. The Grizzlies are average in terms of FG% defense allowing 47% on the season, 21st in 3PT% defense at 36.9%. The Jazz are worse defensively allowing 49% shooting by opponents overall and 37.5% from Deep (24th). Last season in all 4 games one of these two teams scored 122 or more points and in two of the four meetings we had 243 and 250 total points. The added rest is going to lead to a higher scoring game here as the Jazz are 4-0 OVER their last four when playing with 4+ days rest, the Grizzlies are 3-1 in that same situation. Bet OVER.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +9 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:10pm ET - Boston is playing extremely well right now and the Bucks are not, but this line is higher than it should be and the value lies with Milwaukee. In Boston’s last two road games they were -4.5 a Toronto and -11 at Washington. Milwaukee was just a 1-point home favorite over the Sixers and +4.5 versus Detroit. Our ratings have the Celtics -6.5 on this court. The Bucks need this break and should be better coming out of it with more practice time with Porter Jr in the lineup. Porter Jr is averaging just under 22ppg and 6 assists since his return from injury and has become the Bucks go-to with Giannis out. The time came at a bad time for Boston who has won 5 straight and 10 of their last 12 games. We like the Bucks #1 rated 3PT% shooting going up against a Celtics 3PT% defense that ranks 21st in the league allowing nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Everyone knows the C’s live and die from the 3-point line but the Bucks 3PT% defense is 13th best in the NBA and can contest Boston’s shooters on the perimeter. Milwaukee is 3-1 ATS their last 4 when playing on 4 days rest. Boston 6-13 ATS their last 19 when playing with 2-3 days rest.

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET - These same two teams met on this court in late November and produced 242 total points. The Thunder shot 48% for the game, the Suns hit 46% both right around each teams season average. The game was played at a slightly faster rate than an average NBA game with 179 total field goal attempts. OKC is 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.216-points per possession, the Suns are 11th at 1.168PPP. The Thunder in particular have been insanely good on the offensive end of the court with a 1.254PPP average in their last 5 games. Phoenix isn’t a great overall shooting team but they are very good from deep. The Suns are shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. If the Thunder have a weakness defensively it’s their 3PT% D as they rank 21st in the NBA allowing 36.9%. OKC is shooting 49.7% and should convert plenty of open looks against a Suns defense that is 20th in opponents FG% allowed. The last 3 meetings between these two teams has been high scoring with all 3 OVERS cashing. Expect the same in this one.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 840pm ET - This is a value bet as these two teams recently met in New York and the line on that game was Knicks -8.5. That would mean this game should have them as a 1-point favorite or a pick’em. The Raptors have lost 3 straight making them desperate and dangerous while the Knicks have won 3 in a row and may be a little ‘fat’. The Raptors just lost to the Celtics who are playing extremely well right now. In NY’s last 3 wins, two came against Utah and Charlotte and the one quality win was against the Magic who were in a bad scheduling situation and off an emotional win over the Heat. New York has the advantage offensively, the Raptors have it defensively. The Knicks are 3-6 SU on the road this season and 17-19 ATS their last 36 as a road favorite with an average plus/minus of +3.8ppg. The Raptors are 8-5 SU at home this season 18-14-1 ATS their last 33 as a home pooch. Grab the points with Toronto at home.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:40pm ET - With a busy NFL Sunday this write up will be shorter than usual. It looks like the line on this game is suggesting Luka Doncic will be back in the lineup for the Lakers after missing several games. We are fine with that and still feel the value lies with Philly. The Lakers are 16-6 SU on the season but look closer at their 10 most recent games where they are 8-2 SU. Only 1 of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record and that was a 3-point win in Toronto. The two losses in that stretch of games came against the Suns and Celtics who both grade out similarly to the 76ers. Philadelphia is getting healthier with the return of Paul George who scored 20 points last time out against the Bucks. Maxey is quietly one of the best scorers in the NBA and they are getting great play out of Edgecombe. The Lakers have a slight advantage in terms of efficiency differential at +3.2 compared to the 76ers at +0.3, but again the Lakers have faced the much easier schedule. Philly has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. We like them to win this home game outright.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -8 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - It’s not the best scheduling situation for the Heat who are coming off a game last night while the Kings are rested, but Miami has lost two games in a row which should have them focused here. This bet is just as much a play against the Kings as it is a play on the Heat. Sacramento has not played well this season and are likely on the verge of blowing this roster up and starting over. The Kings have lost 4 straight, 2 of which came against Memphis and Utah, two below average teams. Sacto is the 3rd worst offensive efficiency team in the league and 5th worst defensively. They have an efficiency differential of minus -11.2. The Heat were in Orlando last night and lost a close game to the Magic. They didn’t have Tyler Herro for that game, but he’s expected back here. Miami ranks 13th in oEFF averaging 1.163-points per possession. The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league (3rd) with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.119 points per possession allowed. When playing on the road this season the Kings have a negative point differential of minus -11.6ppg. Miami has an average plus/minus at home of +6.9ppg. Miami is 6-2 ATS when coming off a loss and should get a double digit win here.

ASA NBA play OVER 228 LA Lakers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is below an average NBA game but our model is projecting a total around the league average of 234. Toronto has some solid defensive numbers with the 5th best dEFF rating allowing 1.124-points per possession. The Lakers though don’t defend ranking 18th in dEFF and they’ve been worse yet with the return of LeBron, allowing 1.193PPP (24th). Offensively the Lakers have the 7th highest points per possession at 1.196PPP, the Raptors rank 13th at 1.170PPP. In terms of pace we should see a regular volume of attempts and tempo in this game with the Raptors 14th in pace, the Lakers are 19th. Toronto was having some scoring issues but seemed to find their stroke in their most recent game against the Blazers, putting up 121 points on 53% shooting. There is no reason to expect a dip in their shooting tonight against a Lakers defense that allows 48.3% on the season (24th). The Raptors by the way are 4th in the NBA in team FG% at 49.2%. On that note, do you know who the best shooting team in the NBA is? You guessed it, the Lakers at 51.3%. The last time these teams met on this court they produced 256 total points. It won’t be that high Thursday, but it will get over 230.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7pm ET - We successfully backed the Spurs on Tuesday night but will fade them here. San Antonio played a 4-game road trip from Nov 23 - 30th, then were home last night against Memphis, and now travels to Orlando. The Magic have been at home and are coming off a win over the Bulls on Monday night 125-120. Orlando has won 6 straight home games with some impressive victories over the Knicks, Clippers and Warriors. Orlando is 8-3 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.5ppg. The Spurs are a respectable 5-4 SU on the road this season but again this schedule is going to have a negative impact on this team that is lacking depth at the moment with several starters out with injuries. The Spurs are 8-10 ATS their last 18 when playing without rest with an average loss margin of minus -5.2ppg. The Magic have won 4 straight in the series with three of those wins coming by double-digits. Lay it with Orlando.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 pm ET - We like the Spurs by double-digits in this one. Memphis is not in the best of schedule situation here playing their 4 straight road game and 5th of six away from home. In comparison they were just +6.5 at the Clippers who are not playing well and lost that game by 5-points. The Spurs will be happy to be home after a 4-game road trip with the most recent game being a loss in Minnesota. Prior to that game the Spurs had two solid road wins in Portland and in Denver. San Antonio does not have Wemby back yet, but did get Kornet and Harper back recently which strengthens their rotation. Memphis will have a tough time scoring here with the 28th ranked FG% at 44.3% going up against a Spurs D that allows the 9th lowest FG% against at 45.9%. San Antonio meanwhile is the 4th best shooting team at 49% versus a Grizz D that allows 47.6% (22nd). These two teams met on Nov 18th with the Spurs winning by 10-points as a 6-point chalk. We expect a similar result Tuesday night.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, 7pm ET - This line opened considerably higher than where it currently stands but according to our model there is still value in the UNDER. In fact our baseline model is projecting 224.5 total points, the advanced model has 229.5. The Bucks offense has stalled in recent weeks with scoring outputs of 110 or less in 6 of ten games. They have scored 116 or less in 9 of ten. Milwaukee plays at the 20th slowest pace in the NBA for the season but have been significantly slower in their last 5-games at 96.3 possessions per game (25th). The Wiz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA averaging just 1.089 points per possession (27th out of 30 teams). They do play at the 4th highest rate in the league, but much like the Bucks have been playing slower in their last 5 games. Milwaukee is averaging 115.5ppg on the season with the 19th rated offensive efficiency in the NBA at 1.151PPP. The Wizards have scored 115 or less in 7 of their last ten games. An average NBA game this season is averaging 233.4ppg but the way these offenses are playing this game doesn’t get close to being average. Bet UNDER!

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET - The 76ers are beat up right now and aren’t a deep team to begin with. Atlanta is quietly 12-8 on the season with an 8-4 SU road record. The Hawks are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 48.9% with the 7th best 3PT%. The Sixers are 18th in team FG% at 46.4% and 11th in 3PT%. Defensively the Hawks are 13th in efficiency ratings, the 76ers are 19th. Embiid is out today for Philadelphia along with his backup Drummond. Edgecombe is doubtful, Oubre Jr out and Paul George is still not 100%. Atlanta has been playing without Trae Young for most of the season but Jalen Johnson is playing lights out in his absence. Porzigis missed the Hawks last game but could be back here. Atlanta has won 5 straight in this series and should be the favorite in this game.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 8:10pm ET - We absolutely love the Heat in this situation with a massive scheduling advantage over the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a huge game last night against Orlando and now travel to Miami for their 3rd game in four days. The Pistons played 4 straight road games, then went home for Orlando and are now back on the road to face the Heat who have been off for 2 days. Detroit had ripped off 13 straight wins but have now lost 2 straight. Detroit has the 7th best efficiency differential on the season in the NBA at 6.4. In the Pistons last 5 games their eDIFF has improved to +7.6. The Heat are quietly flying under the radar right now and are a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 5 straight games by an average +13.4ppg. In that 5-game stretch the Heat have an eDIFF of +12.6 and are +5.4 on the season. Detroit has some good road numbers but the Heat at home are 9-1 SU with an average /- of plus +6.9ppg. Miami will force tempo here and play fast and the weary Pistons will have a tough time keeping up. Lay it with Miami.

ASAwins NBA play on NY Knicks -8 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks have lost 6-straight games and it’s not going to matter if Giannis is back or not for this one. Giannis is questionable tonight against the Knicks and I’m guessing he returns but it won’t be enough to cover against this Knicks team. These two teams met earlier this season in Milwaukee with the Bucks being a +2-point home dog. Milwaukee won that game by 10-points and this time around it will be the home team Knicks by double-digits. The Bucks lost most recently to the Heat by 3-points but prior to that their 5 losses were all by 10+ points. The Knicks are coming off a successful 3-2 road trip and have won 7 of their last ten overall. New York is 8-1 SU at home this season with the 3rd best average point differential of +12.3ppg. On that note, the Bucks are 3-5 SU away with an average differential of minus -6.2ppg. This is a massive game for the Cup standings as the winner has a chance to move on. These teams aren’t as close as this number indicates as the Knicks have the 5th best efficiency differential in the NBA at +6.6 compared to the Bucks at -2.8. Revenge, health, venue, Cup…it all adds up to a big home win for New York.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8pm ET - The Pelicans are one of the 4 worst teams in the NBA with an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of minus -12.9 on the season. Memphis has an eDIFF of 4.3 on the year. A closer look at each team's last five games and we see the Pels aren’t getting any better with an eDIFF of -12.5 compared to the Grizz in their last 5 games at -1.7. Memphis has won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss coming to the Nuggets. New Orleans is coming off a win over the Bulls, their first win in 10 games. These teams are similar offensively but the Grizzlies hold a decisive advantage on the defensive end of the court with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.150-points per possession allowed versus the Pels who are 29th in the league at 1.226PPP. Memphis has won 5 straight in the series dating back to the start of last season and we like them to extend the streak here.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -5.5 vs. LA Clippers, 11 pm ET - We are going to fade the Clippers here after a grueling 6-game road trip that started in Dallas on Nov 14th and ended in Cleveland on the 23rd. The Lakers also have LeBron back in the lineup after missing the first few weeks of the season. The Lakers are the better team right now with an efficiency differential of +2.6 compared to the Clippers at -5.5. The Lakers are 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.172-points per possession, the Clippers rank 21st at 1.144PPP. The gap defensively is even greater with the Lakers 15th in dEFF versus the Clippers who rank 24th. The Lakers have shot the ball extremely well this season at 50.6% (2nd) while the Clippers are average at 47%. The Clippers are 2-7 SU on the road this season, the Lakers 4-2 SU at home. The Lakers won 3 of four last season against this Clippers team and this year’s version of the Lakers is better and the Clippers are worse.

ASA play on Utah @ Golden State Under 239½ - Model sees just 229.4 points, thanks to Utah's middling 114.9 oEFF against GSW's stingy 113.8 dEFF, at a deliberate 100.9 combined pace (below league avg of 100.5). Last season in 3 meetings the UNDER cashed twice. Utah's road woes (last 10 away unders 7-3) seal the low-scoring trap. Jazz also 6-10 UNDER their last 16 when playing without rest.

ASA play on Houston @ Phoenix Over 226½ - Our model projects 235.2 total, fueled by Houston's blistering 124.6 oEFF (elite offense) clashing with Phoenix's 118.7 oEFF in a combined pace of ~98.4 possessions. Both teams rank top-10 in scoring efficiency this season , with Houston averaging 122.9 PPG and Suns 119.0 . Houston on 5-2 OVER streak in their last seven games. This game has extra excitement with the return of Kevin Durant to Phoenix. Bet OVER.

ASA play on Chicago @ New Orleans Under 242½ - Our NBA model is projecting a total of 235.1, dragged down by NOP's anemic 109.7 offensive efficiency (oEFF - bottom-5 league-wide) facing Chicago's 118 dEFF. The Bulls are one of the faster paced teams in the NBA but the Pelicans are one of the slowest. Chicago has not been great offensively either this season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. H2H last season produced totals of 232 and 234 —Pelicans' injury-riddled roster will have a tough time putting up points in this one and the Bulls have a few key injuries as well. Bet UNDER.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -9.5 at Utah Jazz, 8pm ET - I hate to be a ‘square’ today but even they win at times so give us a ticket on the Lakers -9.5 at Utah. We are betting a premium price here but the rest trends outweigh the number. The Lakers fall into a 61-24 ATS trend as they have been off since November 18th against this same Jazz team. The Lakers won the most recent meeting by 14-points and have won 5 of the last six against the Jazz. We know L.A. should get plenty of good looks in this game and will knock down shots with their #1 rated team FG% at 51.1%. The reason we know this is because the Jazz are 26th in FG% defense allowing 48.9%. Utah will have a tough time scoring with an offense that ranks 21st in oEFF scoring 1.149-points per possession, going up against a Lakers D that is 9th in dEFF. The Lakers should also have an easier time covering double-digits against a Jazz team that has allowed 140 or more points in 3 straight and 132 or more in four in a row. With 3+ days rest we like the Lakers big in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 pm ET - We love the added value in this number now as this line opened at 228 and has since moved down to the current 223. NBA games average 234 total points per game in raw numbers. Efficiency numbers have NBA games averaging 232.4ppg. Obviously this O/U is significantly lower than what an ‘average’ NBA game should be. The Pistons are 14th in pace of play this season, the Bucks are 18th. The Bucks offensive efficiency is trending down currently without Giannis in the lineup, but the Pistons are trending up. In Detroit's last 5 games they have the 8th best oEFF in the league, scoring 120+ in 4 of five. Not to mention, the Pistons should score here against this Bucks D that has slipped to 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.172-points per possession. These two Central Division rivals combined for more than 223 points in all four meetings a year ago, all overs. Granted, two of those meetings went to OT, but they were Over this number at the end of regulation in one of them and had 222 in the other at the end of the 4th Q. These two teams both rank top 10 in FG% shooting so it won’t take many possessions to get OVER this number.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -8.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hawks have lost two straight and will look to bounce back in New Orleans against one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the 2nd worst overall efficiency differential at minus -13.3, only ahead of the Wizards. New Orleans has the 5th worst offensive efficiency at 1.101PPP and the 29th defensive efficiency allowing 1.243PPP. In comparison the Hawks are 14th in dEFF, 13th in oEFF. Atlanta lost at San Antonio on Thursday but had won 4 straight on the road in their most recent road trip. Two of those road wins were against similar teams to the Pels (Kings, Jazz) and both of those wins games by double-digits. Going into Friday night the Pelicans had lost 7 straight games 5 of which were at home, and all 5 came by more than this spread. New Orleans is 1-7 SU at home with a negative average point differential of minus -12ppg. Atlanta 7-3 SU on the road this season and also benefit from a scheduling advantage as the Pels played Friday night.

ASAwins play on Phoenix Suns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9pm ET - I’m not so sure the T’Wolves should be favored on this court against the Suns.When you compare efficiency differentials the Suns are +5.3, the Wolves are +6.5 but Phoenix has faced a tougher schedule. On that note, both teams are 8-2 SU in their last ten games. In the Wolves 8 wins in that 10-game stretch - not one is against a team with a winning record. Phoenix hasn’t faced a tough schedule either but they do have a win over the Spurs in their last 10 and are coming off a win in Portland most recently. The Suns have an edge with their 7th best 3PT% going up against a T’Wolves defense that is 14th in defending the 3PT line. We also like the Suns advantage on the offense glass with the 9th best rebound % compared to the Timberwolves 15th ranked REB%. Phoenix is 6-2 on their home court with the 5th best scoring differential of +13.3ppg. Minnesota is 3-3 ATS as a road chalk this season. Take the home dog here.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 233.5 Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Kings will push tempo with the 3rd fastest pace of play in the NBA. Sacramento has capable scorers and shoots well enough at 46.7% overall, and 37.2% from deep (11th). Memphis has also been one of the league's better defenses in past seasons but they’ve slipped to 18th in defensive efficiency this season. The last two meetings between these two teams produced 254 and 271 total points. It’s not too much to ask to get a 240’s final here.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Grizz battled the Spurs late into the game on Tuesday night before falling by double-digits. Scheduling also favors Memphis here with the Kings coming off a game last night in Oklahoma City. Sacto is 4-14 ATS their last 18 when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Kings are 1-7 SU on the road this season with a negative average point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Don’t be fooled by the Grizzlies 3-5 SU home record as the losses have come to: OKC, Houston, Detroit, Lakers and Heat who have a combined 58-16 SU record. The home team won all three meetings a year ago and we expect that trend to continue here. Lay it!

ASAwins NBA play on: Over 228.5 Knicks @ Mavericks – 9:30pm ET - Last season these two met twice and the games exploded for 243 and 241 total points. That wasn’t a fluke; both teams still love to get up and down. Dallas plays at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA (102.9) while the Knicks sit right around league average (100.3). More importantly, New York brings the 3rd-best offense in the league (121.1 points per 100 possessions) to town tonight. Dallas ranks dead-last in offensive efficiency on the season (105.0), but they’ve woken up lately, posting 107.1 over their last 5. The bigger story is Dallas’ defense, which looks elite on paper (3rd-best DefRtg), but has been torched recently: 116 to Milwaukee, 123 to Phoenix, 133 to the Clippers, 133 to Portland, and 120 to Minnesota. Every one of those opponents is worse offensively than these Knicks. New York has also been living in the Over lately — their last 6 straight games have all totaled at least 228 points. League-wide scoring is sitting at ~234 points per game this season, making this total look suspiciously low.

ASAwins NBA play on: Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40pm ET - The Warriors are in a tough scheduling situation here which is why this line is as high as it is in Miami’s favor. Golden State played last night with the “big 3” (Green, Butler, Curry) all logging 31+ minutes. This is the Warriors 6th game in nine days, 3rd in four days and the second of a B2B so don’t be surprised if several players are rested tonight. Golden State has an overall average point differential of minus -5.8ppg on the season with a below average offensive efficiency rating (23rd) and slightly better than average dEFF (11th). Miami has been a big surprise this season and have played at the fastest pace in the league. They are 6-1 SU at home with a +6.8ppg average +/-. The Heat are about league average in both oEFF and dEFF but simply out score opponents with volume. Miami is the 8th best shooting team at 48.8%, 4th in 3PT% at 38.5%. They should get plenty of open looks against a fatigued Warriors team that ranks 20th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. Miami has the 3rd best FG% and 3PT% defense in the NBA which will limit Golden State on the offensive end. Don’t be intimidated by the spread on this game which looks unusually high, but they made it this for a reason. Bet Miami.

ASAwins NBA play on: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Injuries to both teams will dominate the headlines but the Spurs are the deeper team and can overcome the absence of Wembanyama. Memphis will be without Ja Morant so expect rookie Cedric Coward to fill his minutes. San Antonio is 6-2 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.5ppg. The Spurs are coming off a 13-point home win over the Kings with De’Aaron Fox pouring in 28-points with 11 assists. Memphis is off to a 4-10 SU start which includes a 1-5 SU road record. They are losing on the road by an average of -13.3ppg. The Grizz are in a dilemma right now and have to be considering blowing up this roster and starting over. They are bad on both ends of the court with 29th FG% overall, 27th in 3PT% and rank 27th in offensive efficiency. It’s not much better on the defensive side with the 18th ranked DEFF, 24th FG% D and 19th 3PT% defense. Memphis gives up the 27th most 2nd chance points in the NBA and the Spurs scored the 4th most. San Antonio is 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.186PPP and rank 7th in FG% (49.7%) and 17th in 3PT%. The Spurs have the better overall roster and it will show tonight against a Memphis team that has lost 4 straight on the road.

ASAwins NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs. L.A. Clippers, 7pm ET - This is a very favorable scheduling spot for the Sixers who have had 2 days of rest and now face a Clippers team playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. The Clippers lost a hard-fought game in Boston yesterday 118-121 and are now just 2-8 SU in their last ten games with 5 of those L’s coming by more than 6-points. We love the fact that Philly is rested, but also coming off a loss in their most recent game in Detroit 105-114. The 76ers continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers as witnessed by their 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in six home games this season, the two losses are respectable coming against Detroit and Boston and 3 of the four wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. The Clippers are 1-4 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -10ppg. In each team's last ten games the Clippers have a negative net rating of -7.4, the Sixers have a positive net rating of +2.9 which is a great indicator of where these teams currently stand. This game have blowout written all over it.

ASAwins NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - The Mavs continue to struggle at 3-10 SU on the season with 3 straight losses on their home court. Portland got off to a hot start to the season but have since cooled to 6-6 SU on the year. A great recent barometer of this line is the Blazers were just favored at New Orleans by -8 points just a few games ago and now laying a significantly lower number on this game. Dallas was home dogs to the Clippers by 3 and the Suns by 2 which tells us this line is about right. The Mavs' struggles start with an offense that ranks last in the league in Offensive Efficiency, scoring just 1.045-points per possession. They don’t shoot it well with an eFG% of 50.6% (27th) and make just 10.2 3-pointers per game (30th). The other big factor in this game is turnovers. Dallas averages 17.1 TO’s per game - 3rd most. Portland turns teams over 17.5 times per game - 3rd most. The Blazers are also top half of the league in OeFF at 1.172PPP while making 13.9 3-pointers per game (11th most). We will lay the short number with the road chalk here.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 234.5 Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8pm ET - Denver (124.6 oEFF) and Minnesota (120.6 oEFF) are two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. Denver is 3rd in eFG% shooting at 57.6%, the Wolves are 2nd at 58.6%. That means we don’t need a high possession game to get a higher scoring output. Minnesota is 14th in pace of play, the Nuggets are 24th. We also like the consistency from both teams when it comes to scoring in the paint with the Nuggets averaging 56.9PIP (3rd), the Wolves are 10th at 53PIP. Last 3 meetings in Minnesota: 241, 237, 235 total points. Expect another high scoring affair tonight. Our model is projecting 244.3 total points. OVER 234.5 is the call.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 222.5 Brooklyn Nets vs Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - Brooklyn is the NBA's worst defense (by a wide margin) (126.5 dEFF, 59.6% opp eFG%, 59.1 pts in paint allowed) and faces an Orlando attack that just dropped 124 points with 6 double-digit scorers vs NYK. Even without Banchero, the Magic's balance + average oEFF (115.3) should push 125–130 in this spot. The Magic should get big games from Franz Wagner (22.5ppg) and Desmond Bane (15.5ppg). Nets play slow but only need ~100 to clear — their 111.3 oEFF is enough against Orlando's middling dEFF. This series has seen the OVER cash in 4 of the last five meetings. OVER 222.5 is the call.

ASAwins NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns, 9:10pm ET - The Pacers are coming off a game in Utah on Tuesday in which they gave up 152 total points. We are betting they play much better defense tonight in Phoenix off that embarrassing showing. The Suns are coming off a game in Dallas last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights. We expect a regression in the Suns shooting as they’ve been on fire of late, hitting over 40% from deep in their last five games combined. The current league average in the NBA is closer to 35% from the 3-point line and Indiana has the 11th best eFG% D in the NBA.. We can also rely on the Pacers struggling offensively. Indiana has been hit hard with injuries and it’s shown on the offensive end of the court as the Pacers are the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to Offensive Efficiency. Indiana is averaging less than 110ppg and have the lowest eFG% in the NBA at 46.3%. Indiana is on a 5-1 UNDER run in their last six games, the Suns are 4-1 UNDER in their last five. One of our models is projecting 226.4 total points in this game, the other says 224.9. We agree and will bet UNDER here.