Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-13-19 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Minnesota So, we also like the Over in this game. Even though Twins starter Pineda doesn't figure to have much difficulty mowing down the Tigers lineup, expect the road team to still score a couple runs. But Minny will do the heavy lifting here as they impressively scored 20 runs in their last two games (at a NL park). Detroit's Tyson Ross was dominant in his last start, but that was because he got to face the Royals, who make any pitcher look good. More telling was Ross giving up multiple home runs and four walks to the Yankees in his first start. He lasted just five innings there. The Twins have scored at least five runs in six of the last eight games. The Over is 6-2 in those games. We think they can easily get to 5 here, if not more, and this is a low total. (We probably should have mentioned in the writeup for the side that the Twins are also 14-2 in their last 16 division games). Play OVER Detroit-Minnesota AAA |
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04-13-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston Expect plenty of fireworks (i.e. scoring) in this game. Baltimore figures to be a welcome sight for a Boston team that has struggled out of the gate. The Red Sox are only 5-9, which is the same record as the Orioles, something most never thought they'd see - even this early in the season. As expected, Boston took care of its business last night, winning 6-4. They are now 17-3 the L2 seasons against the Orioles. This is also the first time all year Boston has won back to back games. As bad as the Orioles look to be on paper, Rick Porcello is not someone we'd want to invest our money in right now. The Red Sox starter for Saturday has a 13.49 ERA and 3.134 WHIP after two starts, both of which have gone Over. Baltimore is going with Andrew Cashner today and he hasn't been much better with a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Yesterday (where they still allowed 6 runs, mind you) snapped a seven-game Over run for the O's. These teams have given up the most and second most runs in all of baseball entering Saturday's games. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston AAA |
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04-12-19 | A's v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Oakland-Texas After losing the first game of the series in Baltimore 12-4, the A's steamrolled the Orioles over the next three games, scoring 31 runs in the process. The Over is 5-0 the last five times they've taken the field with them scoring 43 runs by their lonesome. Arlington is generally a place where scoring is not a problem, thus we expect another Over for Oakland tonight. The Rangers are coming off a 2-4 road trip that saw them score 11 runs in the first game (win) but only 13 total in the next five. A return home should do wonders for the Texas offense though as they put up an average of 5.7 runs in their six home games to start the year. Unfortunately, they're also sending out Drew Smyly, whose two starts have not gone well. He's yet to last more than 3 1/3 innings and that's a problem with a bullpen that has a high ERA and WHIP. Oakland's Michael Fiers is off a disastrous showing in Houston where he gave up six runs and couldn't even get out of the second inning. That raised his ERA and WHIP to 5.94 and 1.56 for the year. Play OVER Oakland-Texas AAA |
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04-12-19 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Miami The Phillies got shellacked in their last two games, giving up 25 runs in pair of losses to the Nationals. But it'll likely be them doing the shellacking here as they head to Miami for a three-game series against the struggling Marlins. In the first week of the season, Philly had no trouble scoring as they put eight or more runs on the board five times in the first six games. But since then, they've scored no more than six in a game and been held to two runs or less in three of their last five. Now that's nothing compared to what happened to Miami in its last series as the Marlins got swept in Cincinnati. They scored ONE run in the three games! We look for both offenses to turn things around tonight, however. The Over is 4-1 the last five times the teams have played against each other. The Marlins are 10-4-1 Over the L15 home games when coming off a road trip of 7 or more days. Starterd Sandy Alcantaras has looked good at times, but had five walks and zero strikeouts in his last start. Philly goes with veteran Jake Arrieta, who is 33 years old and seen his ERA go up each of the last three seasons. He has more walks than strikeouts after two starts. Play OVER Philadelphia-Miami AAA |
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04-11-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 102 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Toronto-Boston Toronto scored 7 runs Tuesday, which may not sound like much, but it was a season-high for them. It also, not shockingly, came against the team which has given up the second most runs in all of baseball, that being Boston. The Red Sox, like the Blue Jays, have had their own offensive woes to start the season. But both teams woes should be cured, at least temporarily, by facing each other. Wednesday was an off-day, but I expect the scoring to resume early and often tonight. You have Aaron Sanchez pitching for the visitors. He has faced two weak offenses so far (Cleveland, Detroit), so tonight will be a test. Sanchez has an ERA north of 4.00 in 19 career starts vs. the Red Sox. Boston will go with Nathan Eovaldi in this spot. While his TSR is 2-0, Eovaldi hasn't really pitched all that well. He's given up 9 runs and 12 hits in 10 innings so far. Going back to the end of last season, the Over is 5-0 his last five starts. Dustin Pedroia is now back to help the Boston offense too. Play OVER Toronto-Boston AAA |
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04-08-19 | A's v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Oakland-Baltimore Both clubs are limping into this series. Oakland just got swept in Houston while Baltimore suffered the same fate over the weekend, at home against the Yankees. The Orioles have lost four straight overall as you have to remember they're likely to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball. The A's have yet to win a game away from home. So something will have to give tonight in Camden Yards. Whomever wins, expect plenty of runs to be scored in this one. In the three games vs. the Yankees, Baltimore pitching conceded 29 runs with their bullpen posting a 14.22 ERA and 2.53 WHIP. Tonight's starter Andrew Cashner has a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP after two outings. Oakland goes with Marco Estrada, who looked great in his first outing, but not so much the second. Estrada is far from overpowering. In road games, the A's are allowing an average of 6.4 runs. Play OVER Oakland-Baltimore AAA |
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04-07-19 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Miami-Atlanta Playing the Over with these teams did not work out yesterday. Miami was able to snap Atlanta's four-game win streak, prevailing by a final score of 4-2. All of the Marlins came from the long ball as they hit three total, two from Jorge Alfaro including the game winner in the top of the ninth. Reliance on the long ball doesn't seem like a sustainable way to score runs to me though and today Miami will face a pitcher that doesn't give up many. Braves starter Sean Newcomb has not allowed a HR in seven of his last nine starts going back to last year. He also had Miami's number in 2018, going 4-0 against them with a 0.75 ERA in four starts. That's a great sign as is the fact Newcomb didn't allow any runs in four innings in his first start of this season. He may be pitching to keep his spot in the rotation today, so expect a strong outing. Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in any of its last five games. Miami is going with its own southpaw here in Caleb Smith, who had eight strikeouts in five innings his first start. He allowed just two runs and four hits. We made a mistake taking the Over yesterday, but are fully on board with the Under today. Play UNDER Miami-Atlanta AAA |
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04-06-19 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Miami-Atlanta Atlanta shut Miami out last night, 4-0. It was the Braves fourth straight win and the Marlins fourth straight loss. It was the second straight series opener where the Braves shut their opponent. They beat the Cubs 8-0 on Monday and would go on to score 23 runs in that series. They are now a perfect 4-0 at home following last night's victory. Going back to last year, they've won nine in a row at SunTrust Park and they've also beaten the Marlins nine straight time at home as well. While this looks to be another easy win, and we do expect the Braves to score plenty of runs, look for Miami to cross the plate a good number of times as well. Kyle Wright is making just his second career start today for Atlanta. His first saw him walk five batters in 4 1/3 innings and allow three runs. Some of that was cold weather, but Wright has also yet to prove himself. Atlanta's bullpen hasn't been very good either. Miami's Sandy Alcantara was dominant his first time out, but that was at home. The Over is 8-0 the last eight times the Marlins have faced a team with a winning record on the road. Play OVER Miami-Atlanta AAA |
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04-03-19 | Cubs v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Braves I played the Under on the first game of this series (Monday), which won or pushed depending on whether or not you got 8 or 8.5. But tonight, I'm looking Over with the Cubs and Braves. The teams had off yesterday. Monday was an 8-0 Braves win, their first of the season. The Cubs have given up 8, 11 and 8 runs their last three games, all of which have been losses. Jon Lester starts tonight and while he pitched well on Opening Day, this will be his first time facing the Braves since their renaissance of last season. The Over is 6-0 the last six times Lester has started on five or more days rest. In addition to having given up 27 runs in the last 24 1/3 innings, the Cubs committed six errors on Monday, their first time doing so in a 9-inning game since 1982. Fortunately the offense had scored 28 runs in the first three games before getting stymied Monday. We expect Chicago to bounce back at the plate tonight against Julio Teheran, who allowed three runs in five innings his first start of the year. Play OVER Chicago-Atlanta AAA |
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04-03-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Miami With Jacob deGrom pitching, you have to figure Miami is going to struggle to score runs today. Not like they have an impressive offense to begin with. In four of six games so far, they've been held to three runs or less. deGrom should have no problems doing the same. Yes, he actually did go 0-2 vs. the Marlins last season. But 2018 also saw deGrom post the lowest single season ERA (1.70) since the mound was lowered in 1968. His first start of '19 was right in line with where he left off last season. He held Washington scoreless for six frames while striking out 10 batters. Not to be overlooked here is the performance Miami starter Trevor Richards had in his first start of the year. He allowed just one run (on four hits) in six innings of work. The fact the Marlins lost that game 6-1 (to Colorado) was obviously the fault of the bullpen. Richards also shutout the Mets for 6 2/3 innings in his final start last season. This is a game where few runs will be scored. The Mets aren't going to keep averaging more than six runs per game. Play UNDER Mets-Marlins AAA |
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04-03-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Baltimore-Toronto Someone break up the Orioles! Last year's worst team has started 4-1 out of the gate with all of those wins coming on the division road and two were as huge underdogs in New York. The last two days have seen the O's record one-run victories in Toronto, 6-5 and then 2-1. Similar to yesterday, we think we're in store for another low-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. You have to like the way Blue Jays starter Matt Shoemaker pitched last Friday when he threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Really, with the exception of Monday, the entire Blue Jays starting staff has been pretty remarkable. Take away Monday and they were working on a 29-inning scoreless streak until Marcus Stroman gave up a pair of runs in the 6th of yesterday's game. Of course Monday saw an Orioles starter (David Hess) pulled while in the midst of a no-hitter. Nate Karns will "open" today's game for Baltimore as the first of several relievers to get on the mound. All six of Toronto's runs scored in this series have come in the final three innings. For the year, they are batting .018 (1 for 55) in the first three innings. Karns threw two shutout innings the first time he opened this year, against the Yankees. Play UNDER Orioles-Blue Jays AAA |
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04-02-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 107 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Arizona-San Diego The Padres are a team we've found success with in the early part of the season, playing them twice and winning both times. But both wins were at the Giants' expense and as they found out (the hard way) last night, Arizona is a much different animal. The Diamondbacks pummeled the Padres yesterday here at Petco, winning 10-3, with much of the damage done against San Diego starter Strahm. Starting pitching had been a strength for the Padres so far this season with today's starter Lauer getting the season off to a strong start with six scoreless innings on Opening Day. Again, facing Arizona is going to be a lot tougher than San Francisco was. In his rookie season (last year), Lauer was hit hard in two games against the Diamondbacks with the Arizona lineup recording a .311 batting average and Lauer ending up with a 1.50 WHIP. It sounds weird to say this, but the Diamondbacks may have to worry about Zack Greinke tonight consider how bad he looked in his first start. Greinke gave up seven runs and four homers against the Dodgers Opening Day. San Diego's offense is much more formidable now than in past years. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA |
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04-01-19 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNDER Cubs-Braves Between these two, the Over is off to a 5-1 start to the season. The lone Under in came in last night's 5-1 loss by the Braves in Philadelphia. Once again on ESPN, we should see Atlanta involved in a low scoring game. The Cubs were unable to overcome a disastrous start from Yu Darvish Sunday and lost 11-10 in Texas. Despite scoring 28 runs in the three games in Arlington, the Cubs still lost the series. But now they return to National League play, which still involves the pitchers coming up to bat and scoring should subside accordingly. This works both ways as not only should the Cubs see their own scoring decline here in Atlanta, the pitching should improve. Kyle Hendricks was very good in 2018 and finished with a 1.52 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last seven starts. The Under was 22-10-1 in all of his starts last year. Four career appearances against Atlanta have yielded a 2.33 ERA. Sean Newcomb will be on the mound for the Braves, looking to lead his team to its first win of the young season. The bullpen was more of a problem for Atlanta in Philly than were the starters, so a strong outing from Newcomb would go a long way here. Newcomb was stronger in the first half last year, including a quality effort against these Cubs. The Under is 6-2-1 the last nine times Newcomb has started a series opener. Play UNDER Chicago-Atlanta AAA |
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04-01-19 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER on NY Mets-Miami The Mets had a chance to sweep the Nationals yesterday, which would have been quite the statement to open the season. But a late rally ultimately fell short as they lost in walkoff fashion. Still, you have to like what you've seen from this club so far. Miami is going to struggle massively this season in a NL East where the other four teams are all thinking playoffs. That said, winning the last two games while holding the Rockies to just three runs is impressive. We look for this game to be low-scoring. These division foes ended last season with a three-game series against one another and the Mets scored a total of three runs. They also shut Miami out in two of the three games. One of those games was started by Steven Matz, who tossed six innings of three-hit ball. Matz posted a 1.53 ERA in three starts vs. Miami last season. Really, the only problem he had in a strong 2018 (3.97 ERA) was lack of run support. That's how he ended up with no wins in his final seven starts despite a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Mets scored three runs or less 13 times for Matz last season. It's early, but the Marlins are batting just .216 so far. But starter Caleb Smith should keep them in this one as he had a 3.09 ERA in a couple of starts vs. NY last year. Play UNDER NY Mets-Miami AAA |
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03-30-19 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Braves-Phillies With the addition of Bryce Harper making expectations sky high, the Phillies figure to be a pretty "public" team in 2019. Even with Harper hitless, they still managed to crush the Braves Opening Day, winning 10-4. Him being intentionally walked did set up the pivotal at-bat of the game, that being a Rhys Hoskins' grand slam. Atlanta's starting rotation is in shambles to start the season with both Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman on the DL. This forces rookie Bryse Wilson into the starter's role for today and we look for him to struggle with the Phillies lineup, just as predecessor Julio Teheran did. At the big league level, Wilson has made just one start and two relief appearances. Make no mistake about it, he's only in this spot due to injuries. Philadelphia hit three home runs Thursday. Their offense figures to score plenty again here, but don't be surprised to see them give up some runs here too. Starter Pivetta had a pretty high ERA (4.80) last year and the Over is 6-1 the last seven times he's started the second game of a series. The Phillies had the worst defense in the league last year and that could account for some extra runs scored here too. Play OVER Atlanta-Philadelphia AAA |
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10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between the Rockies/Cubs. Clearly these are two very competent pitchers. However, it’s been a crazy couple of days for both clubs and because of that, I don’t think these starters are going to be quite as focused as they normally are. Chicago lost a chance to host the NLD when it lost to Milwaukee 3-1 yesterday in a one-game tiebreaker for the CD title. The Rockies fell 5-2 to the Dodgers in the other divisional tiebreaker. Now Colorado travels across the country to fight the Cubs for the right to play Milwaukee, who hosts the NLDS starting Thursday. This play is based upon the overall “situation.” Expect a “slug-fest” Tuesday and play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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10-01-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between the Rockies/Dodgers. Walker Buehler has a 1.70 ERA in his last 11 starts (one of those included a 12 strikeout performance in a win over Colorado on Sept. 19th.) Over five starts against the Rockies Buehler has a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Rockies’ German Marquez is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in his last 12 starts and he’s 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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09-14-18 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER Marlins/Phillies. These teams played a double-header yesterday and each game fell UNDER the number. However with these two erratic starters going head-to-head on Friday, we think this total will easily blast past the posted number. The Marlins’ Wei-Yin Chen (6-10, 4.72 ERA) had a decent run through August, but overall the southpaw has struggled, especially on the road where he’s a terrible 1-7 with a 9.13 ERA. The home side goes with Zach Eflin (9-7, 4.42) who has lost three in a row and who has given up at least four runs in five of his last five trips to the hill, posting a horrendous 7.72 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and 21:11 K:BB over that stretch. Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in 21 of its last 32 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last 11 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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08-27-18 | White Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between the White Sox and Yanks. We think this one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon (5-3, 2.71) is white hot for the White Sox with a 1.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while posting eight straight quality starts. Note that Rodon owns a sharp 2.31 ERA in all “night” games. The Yanks go with Masahiro Tanaka (9-4, 3.90) who gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to Miami on Tuesday. Tanaka comes in on top form as well with a 10:1 K:BB over his last 12 innings of work. Note that Tanaka is 7-3 with a 3.59 ERA in all “night” contests. Expect these two quality starters to battle deep and for this total to fall UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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08-22-18 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the OVER Phillies/Nationals. Zach Eflin and Stephen Strasburg are two competent hurlers. However Eflin returns after a short stint in the minors, while Strasburg returns after a month off from injury. and we think that’s going to lead to a higher-scoring shootout. Eflin (9-4, 3.70 ERA) looked good in his final start before going to the minors for one start and coming back up. The back and forth though wears him out here in our opinion, setting him up for a sub-par effort in the Nation’s capitals. Strasburg (6-7, 3.90) has been out for over a month with a neck related issue. He’s been decent, but not spectacular this year, especially at home with a poor 2-5, 5.21 ERA. This one sets up fantastically for a higher scoring OVER. AAA Sports |
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08-16-18 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER between the Cubs/Pirates. The visitors go with Jon Lester (12-5, 3.89 ERA), who has scuffled a bit of late but who overall has been solid across the board; note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road with the 7-2, 3.48 ERA record (he’s also 5-3 with a 3.01 ERA in all “night” contests). The home side goes with Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42) who earned a no-decision against the Cards on Saturday after giving up four runs off eight hits with three walks over four innings. Nova has struggled over the last month admittedly, but note that the Pirates have seen the total go UNDER in 17 of their last 27 against clubs with winning records. Also note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in 50 of 91 vs. right-handed starters this year. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-16-18 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER between the Rays/Yanks. Rays took Game 1 of this series 6-1 yesterday, but we think the home side will find a way to respond here on Thursday. The visitors go with ace Blake Snell (13-5, 2.18 ERA) who looked good in his first start back from a stint on the DL, but who will reportedly once again be under a pitch count today. That leaves the door open for Masahiro Tanaka (9-3, 4.08) who comes in off a pair of strong outings. Tanaka owns a 1.07 WHIP and has 109 strikeouts over 103 innings of work. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA in all “day” contests as well. But with Snell under a pitch count, I think New York takes advantage of Tampa’s shaky bullpen. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go OVER the number seven of its last nine against right-handed starters, while New York has seen the total go OVER in nine of its last 11 after scoring one run or less in its previous outing. This number is a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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08-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the UNDER Diamondbacks/Reds. A couple of red hot hurlers go head-to-head in this one and all signs point to a lower-scoring UNDER. The visitors go with Clay Buchholz (5-1, 2.68 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out eight in a win over the Giants on Saturday. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs over his last four starts, all victories. Note that Buchholz is 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani (5-3, 4.98) who gave up one run off six hits over seven innings in a win over the Nationals on Saturday. We look for these starters to build off their latest efforts and we expect this total to ultimately stay well UNDER the number at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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08-07-18 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 105 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Yanks/White Sox. CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.59 ERA) gave up two runs over three innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Thursday for New York. It wasn’t his best outing, but the veteran has to be feeling confident he can bounce back here as he’s already a solid 5-3 with a 3.74 ERA in all night contests. The home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez (4-9, 4.47) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. Recent form shown by both of these starters points to a classic “duel” on Tuesday night. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-07-18 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Cards/Marlins. This play is based primarily around the dominance of Cards’ pitcher Miles Mikolas and the ineptitude of Miami at the plate in general. Mikolas (11-3, 2.75 ERA) is for legit, most recently going seven strong innings, giving up two runs while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Colorado on Thursday. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that he also sports an elite 1.08 WHIP and solid 97:25 K:BB over 137.1 innings of work. We have a hard time seeing many runs scored in this one, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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08-05-18 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Royals/Twins. Two pitchers who have seen better days go head to head in this one. All things considered though, we think this number is a little high. The visitors go with Danny Duffy (7-9, 4.50 ERA) who went 5.2 scoreless and struck out seven in a win over the White Sox on Tuesday. Duffy has now posted three scoreless outings out of his last six starts and we think the veteran will carry that momentum over here. The home side hands the ball to Ervin Santana (0-0, 6.10) gave up four runs off six hits with two walks over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Monday. Santana has now given up seven runs over 10.1 innings since returning from injury and he’s going to benefit here tonight facing the Royals’ anemic line-up. We’re expecting these starters to fight into the latter frames and for this one to ultimately stay UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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08-05-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Braves/Mets. We think these starting pitchers will “get the hook” early, which will in turn result in a higher-scoring “slug-fest.” The visitors go with Julio Teheran (8-7, 4.46 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with four walks over five innings in a win over Miami on Monday. He’s now given up ten earned runs over his last 9.1 innings of work (note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.13 ERA on the road as well.) The home side goes with Corey Oswalt (1-2, 5.27), who has been called up from the minors to replace the injured Steven Matz. It’s a tough spot start for Oswalt and we think he’ll stumble here against this high-powered Braves line-up. This number is just a little low, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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08-03-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER in the Yankes/Red Sox. Severino (14-4, 2.94 ERA) will be extra motivated here after giving up six runs off eight hits with one walk and five strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a loss last weekend. Severino has admittedly stumbled of late, but note that he’s still 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA on the road and there’s no reason to over-react in our opinion. Porcello (13-4, 4.03) comes in off a poor outing as well, giving up four runs off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a victory over Minnesota on Saturday. Porcello has been sharp of late overall though and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back in friendly confines. With these two competent starters battling deep, we look for this one to indeed fall UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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08-03-18 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Marlins/Phillies. The visitors go with Trevor Richards (3-5, 4.06 ERA) who went six scoreless in his last start. Richards has been decent of late, who over his last ten starts has struck out 47 batters spanning 51.2 innings of work. Velasquez (7-8, 4.02) gave up two runs while striking out four over five innings against Cincinnati on Saturday. Over his last 27 innings of work Velasquez has now allowed only five runs while striking out 25 in that span. We’re expecting these competent starters to battle deep and for this one total to fall UNDER once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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07-23-18 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Padres/Mets. We think these starting pitchers will duel deep and we look for this total to stay UNDER at the end of the night. The visitors go with Eric Lauer (5-6, 4.87 ERA) who entered the break off a “dud,” allowing five runs over two innings against the Cubs. Previous to that though Lauer had gone eight straight starts in which he’d given up three earned runs or fewer. With the extra time off, we’re expecting the right-hander to return to form. The home side hands the ball to Zack Wheeler (3-6, 4.44) who finished the first half with a win over the Nationals, allowing four runs and striking out seven over eight innings. Each starter catches a break here facing these anemic line-ups. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER. NOTE, LATE PITCHING CHANGE FOR METS: This play is STILL ACTIVE. New York goes with ace Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.68) whose start has been pushed to Monday following Sunday’s rainout. in his previous outing he went eight scoreless while striking out seven in an unfortunate no-decision to the Phillies. He comes in with a massive 149:30 K:BB over 123.1 innings of work. This play is STILL LIVE. DOUBLE NOTE, ANOTHER LATE CHANGE FOR PADRES: This play is STILL ACTIVE. Lauer is out and Lucchesi is now in. We still love this play. He comes in off the DL and a rough re-hab start, but he was one of the Friars strongest starters over the first half with a 3.34 ERA and 69:25 K:BB over 67.1 innings of work. This play is STILL LIVE. AAA Sports |
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06-28-18 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on the UNDER Brewers/Reds. We had a play on Milwaukee at home to the Royals yesterday and it would unfortunately come out on the wrong end of a 5-4 decision, the total going OVER the number in that one. Cincinnati was in Atlanta earlier in the day and it left town with a 6-5 win. While both teams played to higher-scoring slug-fests yesterdays, we believe that we’ll have more of a “duel” on our hands in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (3-5, 2.82 ERA) who gave up one run with seven strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the Cards on Friday. Guerra is now holding the opposition to a .217 average and he’s allowed one run or less while going at least five innings in three of his last five starts. To go along with his very respectable ERA, Guerra also sports an elite 1.17 WHIP and 74:30 K:BB over 76.2 innings of work. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 2.60 ERA on the road. The home side hands the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 4.09) who gave up two earned runs with three strikeouts over 6.1 innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. DeSclafani hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s once again trending in the correct direction. Note that Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER the number in 22 of 34 against the division already this year, while Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER in 20 of 35 against divisional opponents this season. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-27-18 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST HALF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Yanks/Phillies. Luis Cessa (0–0, 3.00 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he’ll look to make the most of this spot start on Wednesday. Cessa’s been used out of the bullpen and has posted a 3.60 ERA in all night games. The home side goes with Zach Eflin (5-2, 3.44) who comes in off another strong outing against Washington Friday, going five innings and allowing two runs with five strikeouts in the eventual victory. This play is based primarily on the strong recent play of Eflin, who has won four straight decisions behind a 2.28 ERA and a 22:4 K:BB over 23.2 innings of work. Note that Eflin has been sharp at home as well with a 2-1, 3.63 ERA record. Cessa catches a break facing the Phillies “on again off again” offense, while we’re also expecting Eflin to keep the Yanks’ big bats at bay. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-24-18 | A's v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* O/U SITUATIONAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER A’s/White Sox. The first two games of this series have sailed OVER the number, but we’re finally expecting more of a “duel” in the finale. The A’s hand the ball to Paul Blackburn (1-1, 8.03 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Tuesday. Blackburn bounced back nicely after getting rocked in his season debut, throwing 53 of his 85 pitches for strikes. Note that he owns a 3.60 ERA on the road. Chicago counters with Carlos Rodon (0-2, 4.41) who gave up four runs off five hits while striking out five over seven innings in a loss to the Indians on Tuesday. Rodon retired 11 of the final 12 batters he faced and he has to be feeling confident here as he sports a sharp 3.60 ERA at home and in day games thus far. We usually don’t put much stock in team trends when landing on a particular day, however it’s worth mentioning that Oakland has already seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of 12 this year when playing on a “Sunday,” while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER in all nine games that it’s played this year that happen to fall on a Sunday. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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06-23-18 | A's v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Oakland A’s and the Chicago White Sox. After yesterday’s high-scoring A’s slug-fest victory, we’re expecting runs to be at more of a premium on Saturday. Oakland hands the ball to Daniel Mengden (6-6, 4.06 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off six hits with three walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings against the Angels on Sunday. Mengden started the year on fire and has since regressed, but note that he’s still owns a sharp 3.02 ERA in all “day” contests. The White Sox hand the ball to Dylan Covey (3-2, 2.90) who gave up five runs off six hits and five walks over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Monday. Previous to this dud though, Covey had not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five outings. Note that he’s 2-0 with a tiny 1.42 ERA at home this year as well. With these two hungry starters battling deep into the latter frames, the savvy move in this matchup is on the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-15-18 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Phillies/Brewers. Two starters hungry for a victory go head-to-head in this one and we think they’re going to fight each other deep. As a result, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy call in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-4, 2.97 ERA), who enters off a a tough outing against these very Brewers on Saturday, allowing five runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in what turned out to be a loss. Arrieta has struggled a bit of late, but he still comes in sporting an elite 5-2, 2.05 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. The home side goes with the ever improving Brent Suter (6-4, 4.61) who gave up three runs off four hits and five strikeouts in the victory throwing opposite Arrieta last weekend. Note that Suter owns a respectable 4.01 ERA in all “night” contests. Note as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of 14 already this year on the road when the total in the contest is set between 8 and 8.5, while Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER in 19 of 30 at home. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-12-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Cubs/Brewers. These teams combined for nine runs in the Cubs 7-2 win yesterday and we believe we’ll see even less on Tuesday. Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.86 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he’s struggled at times this year, note that he owns a sharp 2.70 ERA on the road to this point. The home side goes with Chase Anderson (4-5, 4.57) who has been “hit or miss” this season as well, but who comes in with a decent 4-2, 3.91 ERA in all “night” contests to this point. Also note note that Chicago has already seen the total go UNDER the number in 18 of 29 on the road this season, while Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER IN 17 of 27 at home. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-12-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Red Sox/Orioles. These teams combined for just two runs in the Red Sox 2-0 victory yesterday and in our opinion all signs point to another “duel” between these clubs on Tuesday. The Red Sox go with Eduardo Rodriguez (7-1, 3.68 ERA) who comes in off four straight wins, most recently giving up just one run off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings while also striking out five in a win over Detroit in Wednesday. Note that Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA on the road to this point. The Orioles hand the ball to David Hess (2-2, 3.07) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision against the Jays on Thursday. Over his last 18.2 innings of work, Hess has allowed just two earned runs and note that he owns a sharp 3.00 ERA at home so far. Also note that Boston has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of 13 already this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in three of four as home dog in the +125 to +175 range. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-09-18 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Indians/Tigers. These teams played to a lower-scoring UNDER yesterday and in our opinion, everything points to another “duel” on Saturday afternoon as well. The Tribe hands the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.36 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits with three strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Sunday. Over his last 24.1 innings of work, Clevinger owns a 20:12 K:BB. However note that he’s a sharp 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA on the road this year and an even better 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in all “day” contests. The Tigers go with Mike Fiers (5-3, 4.33) who comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Monday, giving up two earned runs off six hits over 5.2 innings, walking two and striking out six in the eventual victory. Note that Fiers is a solid 2-0 with a 4.11 ERA in all day games and 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA at home. We expect these two starters to battle into the latter frames and for this total to fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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06-03-18 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9 | 5-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Indians/Twins. We expect these hungry starters to fight into the latter frames. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.14 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Tuesday. Note that Clevinger has been fantastic on the road this year with a 2-1, 1.61 ERA thus far. Kyle Gibson (1-3, 3.57) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently struck out eight over seven scoreless in a win over Kansas City on Tuesday. Note that it was Gibson’s third scoreless outing of the year. Gibson owns a sharp 1.25 WHIP and is holding his opponents to a mere .222 batting average and we have no reason not to believe that he won’t be able to carry over that momentum here. This pick is based entirely on these starting pitchers, because as we said off the top, we’re fully expecting them to both go deep into this one. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Nationals/Braves. We’re expecting these team’s respective “aces” to fight deep into this one and as a result, we look for this total to fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. The Nats turn to Stephen Strasburg (6-4, 3.13 ERA) who went five scoreless and struck out eight in a victory over the Marlins on Sunday. Strasburg would allow only two opponents to get past first base and he’d go on to throw 66 percent of his pitches for strikes. Also note that he’s now allowed three runs or fewer in his last five trips to the mound, so we find no reason no to think that the dynamic right-hander won’t be able to continue his progression here. The Braves’ go with Mike Foltynewicz (4-3, 2.55) who gave up one run off three hits with seven strikeout over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Red Sox on Sunday. Foltynewicz’s numbers are elite across the board, with the 2.55 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with 69 strikeouts over 60 frames of work. Also note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of 26 on the road already this season, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER In 20 of 35 “night” contests. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Cubs/Mets. We think these two struggling starters get the hook early and as a result, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy call in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 4.10 ERA) who was shelled for three runs off six hits over just 2.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Giants on Sunday. It was the second straight outing in which Chatwood has lasted just 2.2 frames and during that span he owns a poor 4:11 K:BB. Also note that Chatwood’s 1.76 WHIP over 48.1 innings of work leaves everything to be desired as well. The home side turns to the erratic Zack Wheeler (2-4, 5.40) who gave up four runs off six hits with two walks in a no-decision in his latest outing. Previous to this outing Wheeler had allowed ten or more runners to reach base over three trips to the mound. Wheeler looked a bit better in this latest performance, but note that he’s still a brutal 0-4 with an elevated 7.36 ERA at home this year. Note as well that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five on the road when the total in the contest is set between 8 and 8.5, while New York has seen the total go OVER in five of its last seven when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 10 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Yanks/Orioles. We look for these starters to fight deep into this one and as a result, all signs do indeed point to this number being a little high. The Yanks hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (6-2, 4.62 ERA) who comes in off a great showing against the Angels last time out, giving up one run off three hits while striking out eight across six innings. Tanaka has posted back to back victories and while his ERA isn’t anything to write him about yet, note that he does still sports a sharp 1.09 WHIP and 58 strikeouts over 62.1 frames of work (note that he’s 4-0 on the road thus far.) The Orioles go with Kevin Gausman (3-4, 4.31) who enters off an outing to forget, allowing seven runs off six hits and two walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to the Rays on Sunday. The silver lining though was that Gausman would post nine strikeouts in his limited time. Previous to this dud though Gausman had pitched three quality efforts out of his last four tries, so we’re definitely not reading too much into one crummy performance. Also note that Guasman is 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home thus far. Note as well that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of eight already this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in 16 of its 25 at home already. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. NOTE: There’s been a pitching change in this one after yesterday’s game was cancelled, as Gausman is out for the O’s and Thursday’s original starter Andrew Cashner will get the call. THIS PLAY IS STILL VALID. Cashner (2-6, 5.07) was roughed up in his latest outing against the Rays on Saturday, but previous to that dud he’d given up three or fewer earned runs in four consecutive starts. We look for the vet bounce back in this one. Also note that Sonny Gray will get the start for New York. Gray (3-4, 5.98) comes in off an outing to fogey against the Angels on Saturday, but note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in all “day” games. AAA Sports |
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05-30-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Cards/Brewers. These teams went UNDER the number in the Cards 6-1 win yesterday (we had a play on St. Louis in that one.) We think this one sets up as another lower-scoring pitchers duel as well. The visitors turn to Alex Reyes (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his season debut this afternoon. Reyes has been in re-hab up until now and in his time in Triple-A he’s been completely dominant, posting 44 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Reyes is expected to get a full work load and he’ll anchor the fifth spot in the rotation until others become healthier. The home side goes with Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98) who earned a no-decision against the Mets in his latest start despite giving up just two runs off five hits over six innings. Note that Guerra comes in with the solid 3.57 ERA in all “night” games. We expect these two starters to fight into the late innings and as a result, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy call in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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05-29-18 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the White Sox and Indians. We think this number is a little high. The White Sox turn to Lucas Giolito (3-5, 7.53 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Orioles on Thursday, getting shelled for seven runs off six hits over just 1.1 innings of work. Giolito is clearly struggling, but note that he was 3-3 with a 2.38 ERA last year. Also note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven after allowing nine or more runs in its previous outing (lost 9-6 to the Tribe yesterday.) The home side goes with Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.32) who also comes in off a poor outing (a rare sub-par effort though), giving up five earned runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a loss to Houston on Thursday. Overall Clevinger’s numbers remain strong though, also sporting a sharp 1.22 WHIP thus far. We’ll point out as well that the Indians have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight after scoring nine or more runs in their previous outing. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-26-18 | Braves v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 6-8 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Braves/Red Sox. We think that these capable starters battle each other into the latter frames and as a result, we expect this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (5-1, 2.39 ERA) who has a 0.36 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 24 K’s over his last 25 innings of work. Newcomb was given an extra day off before this one, so the southpaw will be completely rested/focused and ready to go for this one. The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 5.97) who looks to get back on track after only last four innings in each of his last two starts. Pomeranz was given an extra few days off to work on his mechanics: "Getting real rotational," said Pomeranz. "It's something exactly what I did last year, it's something that I've struggled with." Note that ATL has already seen the total go UNDER the number in 15 of 26 against clubs with winning records this year, while Boston has seen the total go UNDER in ten of 15 “day” games. This number is indeed a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-21-18 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Braves/Phillies. We expect these competent pitchers to battle into the latter frames and for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to Mike Foltynewicz (3-2, 2.87 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Cubs on Tuesday, giving up one run off three hits over five innings to go along with ten strikeouts. To go along with his solid ERA, the 26 year old also own an elite 10.9 K/9. The home side goes with Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.72) who gave up one run off two hits and a walk over seven frames while striking out 11 in a victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. Pivetta comes in on top form, as he’d generate 23 swinging strikes in the win. Note that the right-hander has been especially tough at home on opposing teams with a 2-1, 2.48 ERA record. This battle just screams “pitchers duel.” This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-16-18 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the UNDER between the A’s/Red Sox. We’re expecting these veteran hurlers to battle into the latter frames and for this total to ultimately fall under the number once it’s all said and done. The A’s turn to Trevor Cahill (1-1, 2.25 ERA) who comes off the DL after a sore elbow issue. Cahill has been given the green light tonight and so far over his first 24 innings for Oakland this year he’s posted the 2.25 ERA to go along with a sharp 0.96 WHIP and 31:6 K:BB. Boston sends ace Chris Sale (3-1, 2.17) to the hill and he most recently struck out 15 in a no-decision against the Jays on Friday, ultimately allowing three runs over nine innings of work. 85 of his 116 pitches went for strikes and he’d go on to post an enormous 26 swinging strikes. As mentioned off the top, we’re expecting these two competent starters to battle deep and for this total to fall UNDER at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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05-12-18 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Royals/Indians. After yesterday’s explosive high-scoring affair, we’re expecting a much lower-scoring pitchers duel this afternoon. The Royals turn to Jake Junis (4-2, 3.18 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off eight hits while walking one and striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Detroit on Sunday. Junis has now gone at least seven innings in four of his seven trips to the hill this year and we’re expecting another strong performance tonight. The home side hands the ball to Mike Clevinger (2-0, 2.76) who struck out ten and walked four over 7.1 innings, while also giving up just one hit and two earned runs in the victory over the Yanks on Sunday. Go go along with his solid ERA, Clevinger also sports an elite 1.07 WHIP and 39 strikeouts over 45.2 innings. All signs point to these two competent hurlers battling deep and for this total to ultimately fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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05-09-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* O/U ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Astros/A’s. A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in our opinion, everything point to a classic “duel.” The Astros turn to Gerrit Cole (3-1, 1.42 ERA) and he comes in off a gem against the Diamondbacks on Friday, giving up one hit and striking out 16 in a complete game shutout. Cole continues to dominate and while regression is bound to happen at some point and it could even happen in this game. But his 77:9 K:BB and 0.69 WHIP will ensure that his drop isn’t that bad and we expect the hard-throwing right hander to carry over his confidence and momentum here. The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (2-3, 4.30) who gave up one earned run off three hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings in a no-decision against the Orioles on Friday. Mengden hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been solid, coming in sorting a 1.19 WHIP and 29:5 K:BB thus far. Note that Houston has already seen the total go UNDER the number in 15 of 24 against right-handed starters this year, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 when the total is set between 8 and 8.5 this season. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-06-18 | Rockies v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGERS on the OVER between the Colorado Rockies and the New York Mets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: As note that Colorado has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven day games, while New York has seen the total go OVER in four of its last six day games. The bottom line: These teams have struggled to points on the board in this series, but all signs point to these potent line-ups getting the better of these quality starters. Play on the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-10-18 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Mariners/Royals. The Royals hammered the Mariners 10-0 yesterday. We’re expecting a more balanced affair tonight, but we do believe we’ll see a similar final combined outcome once it’s all said and done. The Mariners turn to Felix Hernandez (1-1, 7.71 ERA) who gave up eight runs off six hit and five walks over four innings while striking out one in a loss to San Francisco on Wednesday. “The King” managed only seven swinging strikes out of his 87 pitches and we think he’ll be in tough here as well. The home side counters with Eric Skoglund, who makes his season debut after going 1-2 with a 9.50 ERA last year. Skoglund looked decent at the Triple-A level, but that success has so far not been carried over in his time in the Big Leagues. Note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in four of five on the road already this year, while KC has seen it go over in two of three at home. All signs point to a slugfest, play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-05-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the under Cubs/Brewers. Jon Lester was 13-8 with a 4.33 ERA last year, but after one game this season he’s 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA. Lester gave up four runs off seven hits and three walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Miami on thursday. Lester was 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA on the road, but was 8-4 with a 3.59 ERA in all “night” games. The Brewers counter with Brent Suter, who was 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA last year and who is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA after one game this season. Suter would give up three runs off five hits while striking out four over five innings in a 7-3 win over San Diego on Saturday. With that first start of the season out of the way, we think Suter will settle down, note that he was 2-1 with a 3.83 ERA at home last year. Additionally note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 20 after getting shutout in its previous contest (also in both games that it’s faced a southpaw in already this year), while Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER in 57 of its last 88 home games when the total in the contest is set between nine and 9.5. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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04-04-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Dodgers/Diamondbacks. Two hot pitchers square off on Thursday night and in our opinion, everything points to a pitchers duel. Alex Wood (0-0, 0.00 ERA) went eight scoreless in a 1-0 loss to San Francisco on Friday, allowing one hit and striking out five. Wood was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA last season, including 7-1 with a 2.24 ERA on the road. Arizona counters with Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.18) who gave up two runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out eight over 5.2 innings in a victory over Colorado on Thursday. Corbin was 14-13 with a 4.03 ERA last year, including a very respectable 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA at home. We’re expecting these competent starters to go deep into this one. Play on the UNDER AAA Sports |