My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8 pm et on Sunday.

We were talking about totals in the high-220's to open this series but will not surprisingly see the lowest posted total of the series so far in Sunday's seventh-and-deciding game. We already know what the Thunder are capable of offensively, particularly at home where they've gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts in two of three games in this series, scoring 120+ points on both of those occasions. The honus will be on the Pacers to contribute enough offensively to push this one 'over' the total and I'm confident they can. Game 6 served as somewhat of a breakthrough performance for Indiana offensively as it got off 92 field goal attempts - its highest volume of the series by far (its previous high was 85 in Game 3). While Game 7's often take on a defensive tone, I think this game ultimately amounts to the Thunder jumping ahead and forcing the Pacers to speed up in catch-up mode most of the way. Take the over (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Indiana at 8 pm et on Sunday.

This series has been all about adjustments with the only time a team managed to post consecutive wins (and covers) coming in Games 4 and 5 from the Thunder. The Pacers forced this seventh-and-deciding game in a contest that was never in doubt in Game 6, delivering a 108-91 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday as the Thunder rebound and deliver a decisive victory of their own to clinch their first NBA title. Note that the Thunder, despite losing Game 6 in blowout fashion, have held the Pacers to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of six games in this series. In fact, Oklahoma City has limited an incredible 20 of its last 24 opponents to 40 made field goals or less. We've already seen the Thunder get loose offensively at home, hoisting up 94 or more field goal attempts in two of three games on this floor in this series (winning two of those games by double-digits). The Pacers used up a lot of what they had in the tank in an emotional Game 6 victory at home and I look for them to fall well short in their upset bid on Sunday night. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 of this series really had no business getting 'over' the total but thankfully a second half scoring explosion helped it along to cash our ticket. We'll go the other way in Game 6 on Thursday as the Pacers look to stave off elimination, perhaps without the services of star Tyrese Haliburton. If ever there were a spot for Indiana to make a game as ugly as possible, this would be it. We know they're capable of doing just that as we've seen it throughout the playoffs as they've employed a very physical brand of basketball. They can ill afford to allow the Thunder to get off 90+ field goal attempts again as they did in Game 5. Of note, the Pacers have held the Thunder to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games in this series. In fact, Indiana has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma City has been even better in that regard, limiting Indiana to less than 40 made field goals in four of five games in this series. Better yet, the Thunder have allowed 40 or fewer made field goals in 19 of their last 23 contests. You would have to go back eight games to find OKC allowing an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'under' cash in the last two games in this series but I think a change of scenery back to Oklahoma City will lead to a more up-tempo affair in Game 5 on Monday. Keep in mind, the Thunder got off a whopping 98 field goal attempts in their narrow Game 1 loss here at home. The next game in OKC went 'over' the total with the Thunder winning in lopsided fashion. We've seen the pace bog down a little bit over the last two games. The Pacers, for as much as they'd like to turn this into a slugfest, have only had mixed results in doing so in this series. Here, I think Indiana knows it is going to need to get loose offensively to have any chance at pushing OKC to the brink of elimination in Game 6. We haven't seen three straight Pacers games stay 'under' the total since March. Meanwhile, the Thunder haven't posted three straight 'under' results since the second round against Denver. Take the over (8*).

Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Pacers took back control of this series with a stunning 116-107 win in Game 3 on Wednesday. We won with the Pacers and the 'under' in that contest but will go the other way and back the Thunder in Game 4 on Friday. Note that Indiana shot the lights out on Wednesday, connecting on 44-of-85 field goal attempts. Of note, the Thunder are a perfect 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS when coming off a game in which the opposition shot better than 50% from the field this season. Oklahoma City continues to control the tempo, limiting the opposition to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 87 or less in 14 of its last 17 contests. The Thunder have also limited 11 of their last 14 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals so we'll count on a strong bounce-back performance here. On the flip side, the Thunder will need to make adjustments offensively ahead of this contest. Keep in mind, they did get off a whopping 98 field goal attempts in the opener of this series and have hoisted up 94 or more FG attempts in three of five matchups between these two teams this season. I'm willing to bet on OKC getting back on track offensively in this one. While the Thunder remain winless ATS on the road in these playoffs, they're still 26-24 ATS away from home this season where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points per game. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

Order was restored in this series in Game 2 as the Thunder rolled to a 123-107 victory to even proceedings at one game apiece. Of course, at the outset of this series, most expected Oklahoma City to dominate and cruise to its first ever NBA title. Now as the series shifts to Indiana for Game 3, the Pacers have to feel they have a puncher's chance. Note that Indiana has held Oklahoma City to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series. In fact, the Pacers have been better defensively than most give them credit for, playing a physical brand of basketball and limiting three straight and eight of their last 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS on the road in these playoffs and I think we see a bit of an 'ugly' affair in Game 3 that ultimately favors the underdog Pacers catching a handful of points. Take Indiana (8*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 2 of this series managed to sneak 'over' the total thanks to an incredibly high-scoring second half. I expect a different story to unfold now that this series is tied up at one game apiece and the scene shifts to Indiana for Game 3 on Wednesday. I think both teams were probably content with the pace at which Game 2 was played. The Thunder and Pacers got off an identical 82 field goal attempts but the difference was Oklahoma City's exceptional shooting efficiency (it knocked down 40-of-82 FG attempts). Of note, the Pacers have now held three straight and 17 of their last 20 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Their physical brand of defense has translated to postseason success to be sure. The Thunder remain an elite defensive team and they showed it on Sunday, limiting the Pacers to 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held three straight and 17 of their last 20 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts while the Pacers have hoisted up 85 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven contests. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Indiana at 8 pm et on Sunday.

The Thunder controlled Game 1 most of the way before the resilient Pacers once again rallied for an improbable one-point victory. Credit Indiana for being an extremely tough out in these playoffs. With that being said, I expect Oklahoma City to rebound in a big way on Sunday. The opportunities were certainly there for the Thunder to pull away for good in Game 1. They got off a whopping 98 field goal attempts compared to the Pacers' 82. That marks the third time in as many games against Indiana this season that Oklahoma City has gotten off 94+ field goal attempts. I don't expect Indiana to shoot as well in Game 2 as it did in the series-opener. Look for the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments defensively and ultimately win this one going away. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

This is about as big of a mismatch as you're going to see in the NBA Finals. The Thunder have been dominant all season long, particularly here at home, and I look for them to come out and make a big statement in Game 1 on Thursday night. Note that Oklahoma City swept the two-game regular season series between these teams including a 132-111 romp here at home. The Thunder got off 94 and 95 field goal attempts in those two contests with the Pacers offering matador-like defense. I don't think anything changes in the early stages of this series as the Thunder hold all the cards in their favor. There will be a time to back Indiana in this series, but not in the opener. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

In a game that projects to be somewhat lopsided in the hometown Thunder's favor, I expect to see them dictate the tempo and ultimately keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Yes, the Pacers have thrived offensively in these playoffs and they've done so against strong competition. However, there's no comparing the likes of Milwaukee, Cleveland and New York to Oklahoma City. The Thunder are a different team defensively. For the Pacers to contend in the early stages of this series, they're going to have to make things a little ugly and we have seen them thrive in physical environments in these playoffs. Indiana does have one thing going for it as it knows how to throw its weight around and I think this series-opener ultimately turns into a bit of a scrap. Note that the Thunder check in having held six of their last seven and 11 of their last 14 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Pacers allowed an opponent to get off 90+ field goal attempts. Take the under (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New York at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll lay the points with the Pacers in this bounce-back spot as they look to book their ticket to an NBA Finals date with the Thunder. Keeping in mind, the straight-up winner has gone a combined 31-1 ATS in playoff games involving the Knicks and/or Pacers this season, we're comfortable laying the reasonably short number in this contest. Indiana turned in a brutal offensive performance against a desperate New York squad on the road in Game 5, connecting on just 30-of-74 field goal attempts. The Knicks were able to dictate the tempo and take it to the Pacers in that one but I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Indiana for Game 6. Note that the Pacers are a perfect 6-0 in their last six games after being held to fewer than 40 made field goals in their previous contest. The Knicks haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since a three-game streak from their opening round series-clincher against the Pistons through their first two games against the Celtics in round two. Meanwhile, Indiana hasn't dropped the cash in consecutive games since a three-game slide from April 8th to 11th (prior to the start of the playoffs). Take Indiana (10*).

My selection is on Indiana plus the points over New York at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Pacers in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again in Game 5 on Thursday. Indiana enters this game having connected on more than 40 field goals in 12 of its last 15 games (albeit aided by overtime in the opener of this series). On the flip side, the Pacers have limited the Knicks to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games and five of their last six opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. I just don't know that the Knicks have the answers to avoid elimination, even back at home on Thursday, and even if they do, there's no assurance that they can cover the pointspread keeping in mind while Indiana is just 26-22 SU on the road this season it has outscored foes by an average margin of 0.2 points per game. In other words, there's a good chance this one goes down to the wire and in that case we want the points in our back pocket. Take Indiana (8*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and New York at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring affair in Game 4 on Tuesday, similar to what we witnessed in the series-opener (albeit helped along by overtime). We've yet to see consecutive games in this series go 'over' the total, however. I expect that trend to continue here as the Knicks face elimination at home on Thursday. Note that Indiana, while playing incredibly well offensively, has also been a force defensively, holding five of its last six opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 12 foes to 42 or fewer. Not only that, but the Pacers have done an excellent job of limiting the Knicks tempo, holding them to 84, 78 and 82 field goal attempts over the last three games. While New York comes off a terrible defensive effort in Game 4, we can anticipate it rising to the occasion back at home with its back against the wall in Game 5. On a positive note, the Knicks have held seven of their last eight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. They're capable of making this game a little 'uglier' in an effort to stave off elimination on Thursday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Indiana moneyline over New York at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll back the Pacers as they look to avoid heading back to New York with the series tied at two games apiece. Indiana took its turn to collapse in Game 3, blowing a 20-point lead in an eventual 106-100 loss. I'm confident he Pacers can rebound on Tuesday, noting they've gone 33-13 at home this season. This spot sets up similarly to Game 4 against the Bucks in round one, when Indiana rebounded following a 117-101 'upset' loss to deliver a 129-103 blowout win at home. To find the last time the Pacers lost consecutive games you would have to go all the way back to their three-game skid from March 6th to 10th. Meanwhile, New York has gone 0-3 in its last three games following a victory. Take Indiana moneyline (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves exploded for 143 points in their Game 3 victory on Saturday as the Thunder were unable to match their desperation. I expect a much different type of game to unfold on Monday as Oklahoma City looks to tighten things up once again. The Thunder are an elite defensive team and I'm anticipating a positive response off that blowout loss on Saturday. Note that prior to that contest, the Thunder had limited eight straight 14 of their last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the T'Wolves continue to play well defensively having held 17 consecutive opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of their last 15 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the last two games in this series, Minnesota hasn't posted a three-game 'over' streak since March 28th to April 1st. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves provided a big response after digging themselves an 0-2 series hole, posting a 143-101 win in Game 3 on Saturday. We'll call for the Thunder to bounce back in Game 4 on Monday. Oklahoma City has gone 2-0 when revenging a loss against Minnesota this season, winning 130-123 on the road and 114-88 at home. We haven't seen the Thunder drop consecutive games SU since April 4th and 6th. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number of points in this spot and I'm confident we'll see the Thunder rise to the occasion. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indiana at 8 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams have shot exceptionally well in this series so far. After Game 1 sailed 'over' the total, Game 2 was lower-scoring, achieving an 'under' result - just barely. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring contest on Friday. The Knicks got off 84 field goal attempts while the Pacers countered with 83. Game 3 of this series is obviously pivotal and I'm confident we'll see both sides tighten the screws defensively. Note that New York has now held five of its last six and 14 of its last 17 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. For its part, Indiana has allowed just two of its last 10 opponents to connect on more than 42 field goals. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Indiana at 8 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the points with the Knicks on Sunday as they find themselves in a virtual must-win situation after dropping Games 1 and 2 of this series at home. New York did respond with a better effort defensively in Game 2, holding Indiana to just 83 field goal attempts (it has now limited five of its last six and 14 of its last 17 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts). However, the Pacers once again shot the lights out - a performance I don't think they'll be able to duplicate despite playing at home on Sunday. Note that New York is comfortable playing on the road, having gone 5-1 SU and ATS away from home this season. The Knicks were heaped with pressure to respond in Game 2 but now most have essentially written them off and I think that releases some of that anxiety ahead of Game 3. Look for the Knicks to respond. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think there's a reluctance to back the Timberwolves off consecutive lopsided defeats to open this series. Winning in Oklahoma City was always going to be a difficult task for Minnesota, however. It obviously needs a win in Game 3 to make a series of this and I think it will get it on Saturday night. As we noted in our analysis of Game 2, these two teams were fairly evenly-matched against one another during the regular season, splitting their four matchups with neither team managing to win consecutive games. In other words, the T'Wolves know they can beat the Thunder, they just need to put it together on the court. Back home, we can anticipate a positive response from Minnesota noting it has gone 29-17 SU, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.2 points per game this season. The Thunder have obviously been a force on the road as well, but I feel a letdown is inevitable in Game 3. Take Minnesota (8*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Timberwolves have their backs against the wall after another poor defensive performance in Game 2 of this series to dig themselves an 0-2 hole. Returning home, we can expect Minnesota to tighten things up defensively, keeping in mind, Game 2 marked the first time in 13 games that it had allowed an opponent to connect on more than 41 field goals. On the flip side, I'm not sure the Timberwolves are going to find any quick solutions to break down this Thunder defense. Oklahoma City has held Minnesota to just 29 and 36 made field goals through the first two games of this series and has limited eight straight and 14 of its last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Expect a grind-it-out type of affair as the scene shifts to Minnesota on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

It's going to be up to the Timberwolves to make the necessary adjustments ahead of Game 2 after they were throttled 114-88 in Game 1 on Tuesday. I'm confident they'll be able to do so and put forth a much stronger 48-minute effort on Thursday. Look back to February when these two teams met three times over an 11-day stretch. Neither team managed to secure consecutive wins across those three contests. After the T'Wolves took the first matchup 116-101 in 'upset' fashion at home, the Thunder answered back with a 130-123 road victory before Minnesota took the finale of the trilogy 131-128 as a double-digit road underdog. In other words, I'm not convinced there's as much separating these two teams as indicated by the pointspread. The Thunder have now won consecutive games ATS but remain just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Meanwhile, Minnesota has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS off its last five ATS defeats. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Indiana plus the points over 8 pm et on Wednesday.

I don't think there's a lot separating these two teams. Both enter of upset series wins with the Pacers taking down the Cavaliers and the Knicks defeating the defending champion Celtics. We'll grab the points in Wednesday's series-opener. The Pacers check in having connected on more than 40 field goals in six of their last seven and nine of their last 11 contests. On the flip side, they've held seven of their last eight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Knicks have enjoyed similar success defensively but their offense hasn't been quite as consistent, making good on fewer than 42 field goals in nine of their last 11 and 12 of their last 15 games. Look for Indiana to at least take this game down to the wire. Take Indiana (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Oklahoma City took it to a weary Denver squad in Game 7 on Sunday, connecting on 47-of-96 field goal attempts in a 125-93 rout. That marked the Thunder's second straight 'over' result but I expect that streak to be short-lived. Minnesota enters this series with a rest advantage having not played since May 14th. The Timberwolves have held 10 straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They've also done an excellent job of slowing the pace, limiting nine of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a similar story for OKC. The Thunder have held six straight and 12 of their last 13 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. They held the Nuggets to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of the final six games of their conference semi-final series. Take the under (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Denver at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Nuggets delivered an 'upset' victory in Game 6 at home to force a seventh-and-deciding game in this series on Sunday. Unfortunately for them, the scene will shift back to Oklahoma City, where the Thunder are 38-7 SU and 30-14-1 ATS this season. I look for OKC to deliver the knockout blow in decisive fashion in this contest.

Despite dropping the cash in four straight games, the Thunder have shown some life offensively over the last couple of games, connecting on 41 and 43 field goals in Games 5 and 6, respectively. It's a different story for Denver. It has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in each of the last five games. In fact, the Thunder have limited 11 of their last 12 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Denver has allowed Oklahoma City to knock down 40+ field goals in five of six games in this series - in the only outlier it lost 92-87 at home. In fact, the Nuggets have yielded 40+ made field goals in 36 of their last 42 contests.

I don't believe Denver will be able to keep pace with OKC for four quarters on Sunday. We'll lay the points. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 8 pm et on Friday.

We've seen consecutive high-scoring 'over' results in this series including the Celtics 127-102 home win to avoid elimination in Game 5 two nights ago. I expect a much different story to unfold in Game 6 on Friday, however, as the scene shifts back to Manhattan.

The Celtics certainly rose to the occasion on Wednesday, connecting on a blistering 44-of-84 field goal attempts in an eventual blowout victory. The pace certainly wasn't there for such a high-scoring result as the Knicks shot just 29-of-81 from the field. While New York figures to enforce the tempo back at home on Friday, it's worth noting that the Knicks have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 37 or less in four of the first five games in this series.

On the flip side, Game 5 ended a streak of nine straight games in which New York had held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. I'm willing to bet on the C's red hot shooting performance in game 5 on being an outlier that was supported by a predictable letdown from the Knicks with a 3-1 series lead.

Boston can't afford to let its guard down defensively the way it did in the most recent game played here at Madison Square Garden if it wants to extend this series back to Beantown for Game 7. Note that outside of that ugly defensive effort, the C's have been terrific at that end of the floor, limiting 12 of their last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Denver at 8:30 pm ET on Thursday.

This series has consistently trended toward low-scoring affairs, with each of the last three meetings staying under the posted total. That pattern is backed by strong recent defensive showings from both sides. Denver attempted a whopping 97 field goals in Game 5 but still managed just 105 points on 40 makes — a testament to the Thunder’s disciplined defensive approach. In fact, Oklahoma City has now held 10 of its last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, limiting offensive efficiency even when shot volume is high.

Denver, now facing elimination, is likely to respond with increased defensive intensity of its own. The Nuggets have done well limiting opportunities, holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That’s notable considering the Thunder offense has shown signs of slowing, making 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven outings.

With both teams digging in defensively and recent history on our side, this projects as another methodical, grind-it-out playoff battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Thunder 104, Nuggets 100.

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Golden State and Minnesota at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Game 4 of this series saw a jump in scoring with the Timberwolves edging the Warriors 117-110, the pace and shot volume simply haven't supported consistently high-scoring outcomes. In fact, Minnesota has seen a steady decline in field goal attempts over the last three games, attempting just 79 shots in Game 4 — their lowest of the series. The difference on Monday was their efficient 49.4% shooting clip, which isn’t something to bank on repeating.

Golden State, meanwhile, continues to struggle offensively without Steph Curry. The Warriors have connected on 37 or fewer field goals in each of the first four games in this series and in 13 of their last 15 games overall. That’s a striking indicator of a team lacking scoring consistency and efficiency.

Now facing elimination, Golden State will likely double down on its defensive effort in an attempt to grind out a win. Expect a more methodical, hard-nosed approach, especially early, as they try to take the Timberwolves out of rhythm. Keep in mind, the last time Minnesota allowed an opponent to make more than 40 field goals in a game was April 10th — a testament to their sustained defensive excellence.

With both teams struggling to generate high shot volume and one (Golden State) dealing with serious scoring limitations, this sets up as a lower-scoring, high-stakes defensive battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Timberwolves 101, Warriors 92.

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

This is a classic bounce-back and desperation spot for the Cavaliers as they return home for Game 5 after getting blown out in Game 4. That loss coincided with Donovan Mitchell leaving late in the third quarter due to an ankle injury. While Mitchell’s status remains up in the air as of Tuesday afternoon, he did participate in the team’s shoot-around — a positive sign.

Even without Mitchell, Cleveland should be fully locked in and ready to respond in front of its home crowd. The Cavs have been elite at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, going 36-9 while outscoring opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. That level of performance, paired with the urgency of facing elimination, gives them a significant edge.

This will be Indiana’s first road game with a chance to close out a series this postseason, and I’m not convinced they’ll rise to the occasion. The Pacers have been inconsistent away from home and could struggle to match the Cavs' intensity in what figures to be a raucous environment.

Whether or not Mitchell suits up, expect Cleveland’s defense to set the tone early and their physicality to wear down the Pacers over the course of four quarters.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cavaliers 117, Pacers 106.

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm ET on Monday.

Game 3 of this series was another closely-fought battle, with the Timberwolves escaping San Francisco with a 102-97 win. That result came with Steph Curry once again sidelined, and it did little to dispel the notion that Golden State can hang with Minnesota, even shorthanded. Monday's Game 4 represents a critical rebound spot for the Warriors, and their ability to stay competitive without Curry gives them confidence heading into this one.

Golden State likely returned home targeting at least a split in Games 3 and 4 without Curry, and with the Timberwolves due for some regression following a pair of wins, this is the ideal bounce-back spot for the Warriors. Keep in mind, close games have been common for both teams in these settings: the T’Wolves own a modest average scoring margin of +3.2 on the road, while Golden State sits at +2.2 at home — pointing toward another tightly-contested affair.

With the spread offering some extra insurance, there’s solid value backing a veteran Warriors squad fighting to stay within arm's reach in this series.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Timberwolves 105, Warriors 104.

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Denver at 3:30 pm ET on Sunday.

While the Nuggets escaped with an overtime win in Game 3, it wasn’t a dominant performance and came despite another slow offensive showing. Denver managed only 39 made field goals on just 85 attempts—still well below what you’d expect from a team in control of a playoff game. That’s now three consecutive games in this series where the Nuggets have been held under 43 made field goals, highlighting the defensive intensity Oklahoma City continues to bring.

For the Thunder, Game 3 was more about missed opportunities than a failure of execution. They generated 104 field goal attempts—compared to Denver’s 85—but converted only 40, one of their worst shooting performances of the season. That’s not a trend we expect to continue, especially given the consistent shot volume and the fact that Oklahoma City has responded well to adversity all season.

This is a bounce-back spot for a young, hungry Thunder squad that’s shown it can dictate pace and volume—two critical playoff metrics. Look for them to bounce back strongly and even the series on the road.

Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Thunder 112, Nuggets 101.

My selection is on Boston minus the points over New York at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Celtics find themselves in a surprisingly deep 0-2 series hole, but I look for them to respond with urgency and precision on Saturday afternoon at Madison Square Garden. Despite the road setting, this is a spot where Boston should thrive. The C’s have been dominant on the road all season, posting a 34-9 SU record while outscoring opponents by over nine points per game away from TD Garden.

The issue through the first two games hasn’t been effort or shot volume—it’s been finishing. Boston hoisted up 97 and 94 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2, respectively, 18 more combined than the Knicks. While New York has capitalized in clutch moments, it has still only managed 37 made field goals in each contest, hardly a dominant offensive showing.

If the Celtics’ shooting numbers normalize even slightly, they’re in excellent position to get back in the series. This is a seasoned and talented group capable of imposing its will, and I expect them to do exactly that with their backs against the wall on Saturday.

Take Boston. Projected score: Celtics 113, Knicks 101.

My selection is on the under between Oklahoma City and Denver at 10 pm ET on Friday.

While the first two games of this series both eclipsed the total and both teams are in the midst of extended 'over' streaks—five straight for Denver and three for Oklahoma City—I believe the setup is ripe for a lower-scoring Game 3. With the series now shifting to Denver, the intensity figures to ramp up, and both teams have demonstrated strong underlying defensive metrics that should begin to surface.

Despite the recent scoring surges, the Thunder have now held 10 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals—an incredible level of consistency on the defensive end. Denver hasn't been far behind in that department, limiting eight of its last nine and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals.

Game 2 turned into a one-sided affair, which helped inflate the scoring. But with Friday’s contest expected to be more competitive, look for fewer transition opportunities and a heavier reliance on half-court sets, where both defenses thrive. That should keep the pace in check and suppress overall shot quality.

Take the under. Projected score: Thunder 114, Nuggets 109.

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm ET on Friday.

Game 2 followed a familiar script to Game 1, with Cleveland controlling much of the contest before unraveling late. Despite trailing 0-2 in the series, the Cavaliers remain capable of flipping the script in Game 3 as the series shifts to Indiana. While some bettors may be wary of backing a road favorite in this spot, it's worth noting that Cleveland has thrived away from home this season, posting a 32-11 SU and 27-15-1 ATS mark.

The Cavaliers have created plenty of offensive opportunities, taking over 90 field goal attempts in each of the first two games. The issue has been execution in key stretches, especially on the defensive end late. That said, they still possess the superior half-court defense and should be able to assert that more effectively with their backs against the wall.

Indiana capitalized on fewer chances thanks to efficient shooting, but that’s a difficult formula to sustain over the course of a series. Look for Cleveland to tighten up defensively and play with greater urgency in what amounts to a must-win scenario.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cavaliers 113, Pacers 104.

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Golden State at 8:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Underdogs have been a theme in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, but Thursday presents a strong spot to back the favorite as Minnesota looks to respond following a lackluster Game 1 loss to Golden State. The Timberwolves were flat in the series opener despite the Warriors losing Steph Curry to an injury that will sideline him for at least a week.

With Curry unavailable, Golden State faces a tall task trying to generate consistent offense, especially against one of the NBA’s top defensive units in Minnesota. Game 1 wasn’t about what the Warriors did right—it was more about what Minnesota didn’t do. Expect a sharper and more urgent effort from the T’Wolves here.

Minnesota has proven resilient following losses, not having dropped back-to-back games against the spread since early April. Meanwhile, Golden State is just two games removed from a three-game ATS losing streak and is unlikely to maintain its current pace without its superstar floor general.

This is a classic bounce-back spot for a superior and healthier Timberwolves squad playing at home.

Take Minnesota. Projected score: Timberwolves 114, Warriors 99.

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Denver at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Thunder let one slip away in Game 1, but I expect a sharp response in Game 2. Despite the loss, Oklahoma City still managed to attempt 100 field goals—clear evidence of their ability to control pace and generate scoring chances. Denver may have pulled off the upset, but the margin was razor-thin, and the Nuggets didn’t show a clear path to replicating that effort—especially with the Thunder owning such a dominant home-court profile.

OKC is 37-7 straight up and 29-14-1 against the spread at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.7 points per game. Monday’s result snapped an eight-game winning streak, but that only strengthens the case for a bounce-back effort. This is a young, hungry team with a strong defensive core and the ability to wear down opponents over 48 minutes. I doubt Denver will show the same urgency in Game 2, having already secured the split on the road.

Expect a much cleaner effort from the Thunder offensively and a better job closing the door late.

Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Thunder 116, Nuggets 98.

My selection is on Boston minus the points over New York at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Celtics dropped a tough one in overtime in Game 1, but we’ll confidently back them to respond with authority in Game 2. Boston simply struggled to shoot the basketball on Monday night, going just 34-of-97 from the field (35%) despite controlling pace and generating a high volume of looks. That’s unlikely to happen again, especially against a Knicks squad that expended a ton of energy to secure the Game 1 upset and already accomplished its mission of earning a split in Boston.

The Knicks, playing with motivation from a recent home loss to the Celtics in early April, caught the C’s in a bit of a flat spot in the opener. Now it’s Boston with the edge in urgency and emotion as it looks to avoid falling into an 0-2 series hole before heading to Madison Square Garden. This is a seasoned Celtics team that’s been dominant at home all season and should come out much sharper, particularly at the offensive end where it underperformed Monday.

Look for a more efficient effort from Boston and a letdown from a Knicks team in a dangerous Game 2 spot.

Take Boston. Projected score: Celtics 111, Knicks 94.

My selection is on Minnesota over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll back the Timberwolves as they aim to capitalize on their rest advantage and home court edge in Tuesday's Game 1 showdown with Golden State. The Warriors are in a tough situational spot here, coming off an emotional and physical Game 7 win in Houston on Sunday and now facing a quick turnaround with travel to take on a well-rested Minnesota squad.

The T’Wolves made relatively quick work of the Lakers in the opening round and should enter this series both fresher and better prepared. While the Thunder were unable to leverage their rest edge in last night’s loss to Denver, the situation here is a bit different. Golden State is not only playing on short rest but also must deal with a shift in pace and physicality compared to the Rockets. Minnesota brings a far more balanced and defensively capable roster to the table. Minnesota has held seven straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals entering this contest. Meanwhile, Golden State has eclipsed 40 made field goals just once in its last eight games.

This sets up well for the Timberwolves to come out sharp and take early control of the series, especially on their home floor where they’ve been excellent all season. Expect their defensive length and energy to disrupt a potentially fatigued Warriors squad that could struggle to match Minnesota's tempo and effort level out of the gate.

Take Minnesota. Projected score: Timberwolves 114, Warriors 104.

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cavaliers dropped Game 1 of this series despite executing reasonably well offensively, and I expect a strong response on their home floor in Game 2. While injury concerns have made bettors wary of laying points with Cleveland, it's important to remember that nearly every playoff team is dealing with physical wear-and-tear at this stage, and the Cavs still have the necessary pieces to bounce back.

Cleveland wasn’t lacking effort in Sunday’s loss—they got up 98 field goal attempts and shot a respectable 45.9% from the field. The real difference came at the defensive end, where the Pacers turned in an outlier performance, shooting 53% from the floor and knocking down 15 threes. That kind of efficiency—especially on the road—is hard to sustain, and we should expect some regression from Indiana in Game 2.

The Cavaliers also held a 44-36 edge on the boards and took care of the ball with only eight turnovers. If they maintain those underlying strengths and can get more defensive resistance on the perimeter, they’re fully capable of dictating the pace and taking control early in this contest. Look for a more complete effort from a motivated Cleveland squad aiming to avoid a daunting 0-2 hole before heading to Indiana.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cavaliers 116, Pacers 101.

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

Golden State hasn’t shot the ball well in recent games, but this feels like a strong opportunity for a bounce-back performance. Despite struggling to convert, the Warriors have generated plenty of looks, attempting 90 shots in Game 6 — 12 more than the Rockets — and 193 field goal attempts over the last two contests. The game plan doesn’t need to change: limit Houston’s possessions and capitalize more consistently on the offensive end.

Houston’s offensive output has largely been inflated by one outlier performance. Outside of their hot shooting night in Game 5, the Rockets have made fewer than 40 field goals in the other five games in this series. Golden State’s defensive execution has generally held up, which is a promising sign heading into a pressure-packed Game 7.

From a trends perspective, Golden State has covered in similar spots before. The Warriors have not dropped four straight games ATS since December, and they’ve shown a pattern of delivering against the number after a short skid. Meanwhile, Houston hasn’t been a reliable bet to string together ATS wins, with their last streak of more than three covers coming in early March.

With their backs against the wall, I expect Golden State to find some rhythm offensively while continuing to clamp down on the defensive end — a formula that should keep this game tight throughout.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Warriors 105, Rockets 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

After a long string of 'under' results in this series, the last two games have both cleared the number. That has led to considerable market reaction heading into Saturday’s Game 7 - perhaps not as you might think - with the lowest total of the series posted, and rightfully so in my opinion. Despite the recent 'over' results, pace and shot volume remain well within the bounds of an 'under'-friendly script.

The Clippers have attempted 88 or fewer field goals in every game this series, which speaks to the grind-it-out nature of this matchup. What has changed recently is efficiency — Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in back-to-back games, which is not something we should expect to continue on the road in a high-pressure Game 7. Denver, for its part, has quietly controlled tempo at home all season and is capable of imposing its defensive will in this spot.

On the other side, the Clippers have held Denver to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. Even when the Nuggets got to 90+ FGA in Game 1, they only made 41 shots. Yes, Denver has shot extremely well the last two contests, but that efficiency seems unsustainable against a Clippers defense that hasn’t allowed three straight opponents to knock down 44+ field goals all year. Each time it happened twice in a row, the next game failed to eclipse the total.

Given the series-long trend, the suppressed pace, and the expected tightening of defensive screws in a Game 7 environment, this one sets up nicely for a return to a low-scoring result. Expect both teams to show resistance early and take fewer risks offensively, leading to fewer transition opportunities and more half-court possessions.

Take the under. Projected score: Nuggets 101, Clippers 98.

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday.

After consecutive high-scoring games, we're buying low on the total and expecting a regression in Game 6 as the series returns to a more defensive tone. Houston extended the series with a blowout win in Game 5, shooting a red-hot 55% from the floor (43-of-78). That marked the first time in the series the Rockets surpassed 40 made field goals — a number they had failed to reach in each of the first four games.

It's worth noting that Houston has been held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all five games. That’s a testament to Golden State’s ability to limit possessions and keep the Rockets in check outside of last game’s outlier performance. The Warriors, meanwhile, were forced into an inflated pace in Game 5, jacking up 103 shots — an unsustainable figure and one driven by a lopsided deficit and desperation.

Before that, Golden State had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in four straight games, and I expect a return to that type of defensive execution on Friday. This is another elimination game - one that figures to be more competitive than we saw two nights ago - and that often brings with it more deliberate play-calling and an increased emphasis on defense and half-court sets.

With both teams locking in on the defensive end and the pace slowing considerably, this projects as a tight, lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Warriors 101, Rockets 96

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Nuggets have flipped the script in this series with back-to-back wins, including a buzzer-beating victory on the road in Game 4 and a dominant Game 5 performance at home. But with the Clippers returning to Los Angeles and now facing elimination, I expect a sharper effort across the board from the home side on Thursday.

Despite the lopsided Game 5 loss, Los Angeles continued to limit Denver’s offensive volume, holding the Nuggets to just 87 field goal attempts — the fourth straight game they've kept Denver under 88 attempts. The issue was efficiency, as the Nuggets connected on an unsustainable 48 shots, fueled by red-hot shooting across the board. It’s worth noting that the Clippers have now held 12 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts, and that level of defensive pressure should eventually pay off — especially on their home floor.

Offensively, Los Angeles wasn’t exactly off the mark in Game 5 either, hitting 43-of-82 field goal attempts. They’ve now made 40+ field goals in four of five games in this series and in 23 of their last 27 games overall, indicating consistent scoring ability even in defeat.

With the urgency of a win-or-go-home scenario and returning to a building where they’ve thrived, I look for the Clippers to clamp down defensively and feed off the crowd en route to a convincing bounce-back win.

Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Clippers 114, Nuggets 103.

Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Detroit at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This looks like a clear opportunity to back the better team as an underdog, with the Knicks heading to Detroit having already notched two road wins in this series. New York's Game 5 loss came down to inefficient finishing rather than a lack of opportunity — the Knicks got up 90 field goal attempts but shot just 43% from the floor, a number that seems due for regression.

What gives New York the edge here is its consistent defensive intensity. The Knicks have held 13 of their last 15 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and have effectively controlled the pace of play, forcing Detroit into inefficient looks. The Pistons, despite their Game 5 win, have still failed to top 86 field goal attempts in any game this series and haven’t made more than 40 field goals in their last four.

While Detroit is capable of the occasional surprise, it hasn't been consistent — the Pistons haven't won back-to-back games since March and are just 7-14 ATS in their last 21 contests. Even at home, they’re barely breaking even with a +1.2 average scoring margin.

With the Knicks still in control of the tempo and boasting the better track record away from home, I'll gladly take the points in what looks like a bounce-back spot for New York.

Take New York. Projected score: Knicks 105, Pistons 101.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While we did cash with the 'over' in Game 4 on Sunday, I'm expecting a return to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out style in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. Sunday’s game saw a somewhat inflated scoreline thanks to a better shooting performance from Boston and a looser game script with the Celtics in control for much of the night, not to mention plenty of late scoring thanks the Magic's desperation fouling. Now, with the series 3-1 in favor of Boston and the potential of Orlando's elimination, I expect both teams to tighten things up defensively.

This has been a slow-paced series overall, with Orlando in particular dragging games into half-court battles. The Magic have held Boston to 39 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four games — an incredible feat considering the Celtics’ potent offense. That’s largely due to Orlando’s ability to limit possessions and force Boston into long, contested shots.

Boston’s defense also deserves credit. Outside of a couple of brief stretches, they’ve consistently bottled up the Magic's offense, and now back at home, I anticipate the Celtics emphasizing a defensive-first approach as they look to finish off the series. Note that even with the 'over' hitting in Game 4, the Celtics still held the Magic to just 34 made field goals (they've limited Orlando to 37 or fewer made field goals in all four games) — nothing explosive.

Orlando hasn’t topped 98 points in three of the four games in this series, only reaching 100 points in the other contest. Given the stakes, expect long possessions, fewer transition opportunities, and plenty of physical half-court play.

Take the under. Projected score: Celtics 102, Magic 91.

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday.

We'll fade the Warriors here after they leaned heavily on a vintage Steph Curry performance to grab a 2-1 series lead on Saturday night. While Golden State ultimately got the job done, it's worth noting that the Rockets have been competitive in this matchup, splitting the last six meetings straight-up, including an outright victory at this very venue on April 6th.

Consistency has been an issue for Golden State down the stretch. Since March 6th, the Warriors have managed to string together consecutive ATS victories only once — during a brief four-game run from March 30th to April 4th. Since that point, they’ve gone just 4-5 ATS. That suggests some natural regression could be in play here, especially with public sentiment likely backing Golden State following Saturday's win.

Meanwhile, Houston has proven it can travel well, posting a solid 23-19 SU and 22-20 ATS mark away from home this season. The Rockets should be fully motivated to bounce back in this critical Game 4 spot, and we know they have already demonstrated the ability to steal a game in San Francisco.

With the Warriors unlikely to shoot the lights out for a second straight game and the Rockets capable of matching up physically and athletically, we’ll grab all the points we can get with the road underdog on Monday night.

Take Houston.Projected score: Warriors 104, Rockets 103.

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

The Heat enter Monday's matchup facing elimination after a humbling 124-87 blowout loss in Game 3 on Saturday. However, I'm expecting a much stronger effort from Miami as it looks to keep its season alive. It's important to note that the Heat had actually been competitive through the first two games of the series, including a 121-112 loss in Game 2 where they covered the spread while shooting a solid 42-for-81 from the field.

Historically, Miami has been resilient in bounce-back situations, having not suffered consecutive ATS losses since early April. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been less consistent when it comes to stringing together pointspread victories, managing only two ATS winning streaks (one lasting two games and another lasting three) since early March. Cleveland is also coming off three straight contests in which it scored 120 or more points — a level of sustained offensive efficiency that could be tough to maintain against a Heat squad that's known for its defensive grit.

With pride and urgency on their side and the Cavs possibly due for some regression offensively, I'll grab the points with the Heat as they look to force a Game 5.

Take Miami. Projected score: Cavaliers 106, Heat 103.

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Orlando at 7 pm et on Sunday.

While Game 3 saw both teams bogged down in a sluggish, low-scoring affair — combining for just 188 points — I’m expecting a bounce-back in scoring when the Celtics and Magic meet again for Game 4 on Sunday night.

Friday’s 95-93 Orlando win saw Boston limited to a season-low 74 field goal attempts, but it's important to note that Boston has historically responded well offensively after extended shooting slumps. The Celtics have now been held to 37 or fewer made field goals in four straight games, matching their longest drought of the season. The last time that happened, they exploded for 139 points against Brooklyn in mid-November. While I’m not projecting quite that type of eruption here against Orlando’s stout defense, it sets up nicely for Boston to find its rhythm and lift the scoring environment.

Orlando still faces heavy pressure trailing 2-1 in the series. In a similar spot in Game 2, we saw the Magic perform better offensively while chasing from behind, knocking down a series-high 39 field goals. If the Celtics take control again on Sunday, that could force Orlando to play a little faster and take more chances offensively, helping the 'over' cause.

It won’t take an out-of-control shootout to surpass this relatively modest number. With Boston likely to come out with more purpose offensively and Orlando capable of contributing enough, we should see a higher-scoring contest than we did on Friday.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Celtics 107, Magic 102.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

After the 'under' cashed in the first two games of this series, Game 3 brought a temporary break from the trend as both teams started hot and combined for 220 points. I’m expecting a return to a lower-scoring outcome in Sunday's pivotal Game 4, with both squads likely emphasizing defense and control.

Despite the Game 3 'over', the overall pace of the series remains sluggish. Los Angeles has taken 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight contests and seven of its last nine overall. This is a team that has played deliberately slow basketball down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs, preferring to work for quality shots rather than rushing possessions.

Defensively, the Lakers have been extremely effective at keeping opposing offenses in check. They've held 10 of their last 11 opponents — and an impressive 42 of their last 48 — to 44 or fewer made field goals. That speaks volumes about their ability to prevent teams from finding rhythm and easy looks.

The Timberwolves, meanwhile, hoisted up 91 field goal attempts in Friday’s Game 3, but even that was a bit of an outlier. They’ve had fewer than 90 attempts in seven of their last nine games. Their defense continues to be the cornerstone of their success, as they've limited five consecutive opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals.

With both teams bringing a defensive mindset and neither looking to push the pace, we should see a grind-it-out style of game and a return to the 'under' cashing once again on Sunday afternoon.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Timberwolves 102, Lakers 98.

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

While both teams boast plenty of offensive weapons, this series — and this matchup overall — continues to trend 'under.' We've now seen six straight meetings between the Rockets and Warriors stay below the total, including each of the first two games of this playoff series.

Golden State has made a concerted effort to control the tempo, limiting Houston to just 76 and 80 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2. That’s critical, as the Rockets thrive in a faster-paced game and haven’t been able to get into their offensive rhythm.

On the other side, the Warriors themselves have been mired in an offensive slump for weeks. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three straight games and 12 of their last 17 overall. Furthermore, Golden State hasn’t even topped 86 field goal attempts in a single game since April 8th — a span of six contests where they've recorded a 2-4 o/u mark.

With both teams struggling to find offensive flow and the Warriors imposing a slower pace, another 'under' looks likely.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Warriors 101, Rockets 97.

My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 6 pm et on Saturday.

After two straight losses, including an ugly 117-83 defeat in Game 3, I'll back the Nuggets to show some pride and respond in Saturday’s critical Game 4. Despite the lopsided nature of Game 3, this has largely been a competitive season series, with the Clippers holding only a slight 4-3 straight-up edge.

Denver is primed for a bounce-back performance offensively after hitting rock bottom on Thursday, connecting on just 31 field goals — their fewest in any game this season. While the Clippers have impressively held the Nuggets to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games, recent history suggests regression is likely. Los Angeles has struggled to maintain momentum in similar spots, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games after holding consecutive opponents under 40 made field goals.

With a better offensive showing expected from the Nuggets and the Clippers potentially coming back to earth, grabbing the points with Denver offers solid value in what should be a closer contest.

Take Denver. Projected score: Clippers 104, Nuggets 102.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The early series trend is undeniable — all six meetings between the Lakers and Timberwolves this season have stayed under the total, and there’s little reason to expect that to change as the series heads to Minnesota for Game 3. Despite totals continuing to slide lower, I still don't think the oddsmakers have fully accounted for the defensive intensity on display.

Minnesota's defense has been elite down the stretch, with the under cashing in seven of their last eight games. Even more impressively, they've held each of their last four opponents to 40 made field goals or fewer — a testament to their rim protection, switchability, and disciplined half-court execution.

The Lakers haven’t been shabby defensively either. They've limited four of their last five and eight of their last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The pace of this series has been slow, physical, and playoff-style through and through — and that suits both teams' recent defensive identities.

Expect another grind-it-out, half-court-heavy affair with limited transition buckets and long, contested possessions on both ends.

Take the under. Projected score: Timberwolves 102, Lakers 97.

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the over between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 9:30 pm ET on Thursday.

The total has dipped following back-to-back low-scoring games to open the series, creating value as we shift venues to Memphis for Game 3. Oklahoma City is playing with extreme offensive confidence right now, having made 45 or more field goals in five of its last six games. The Thunder's offensive pace remains relentless, taking 98 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests, including a staggering 104 attempts in their Game 2 win. Even with a strong defense, the Thunder allow their opponents plenty of opportunities—four straight opponents have reached 91 or more field goal attempts. That trend should continue here, especially with the Grizzlies returning home and likely to push tempo in a must-win spot.

While Memphis hasn’t cashed in offensively yet this series, they've generated volume—getting off 93 and 91 field goal attempts in the first two games. They simply haven’t converted at the level they were prior to the series when they made 40+ field goals in six straight games. That kind of regression is unlikely to last, especially back home where role players typically perform better. Overall, the Grizzlies have hoisted 90 or more field goal attempts in 27 of their last 32 games, a sign they’re doing enough offensively to contribute to a higher-scoring game when their shots begin to fall. With both teams continuing to play at a high tempo, expect this one to cruise over the posted number.

Take the over. Projected score: Thunder 123, Grizzlies 113.

Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

While the Rockets came up short in Game 1, I expect a much more focused and efficient effort on Wednesday in a virtual must-win situation at home. Houston shot just 39.1% from the field in Sunday’s loss, connecting on only 34-of-87 attempts despite generating a reasonable number of looks. That kind of inefficiency is out of character for a Rockets team that had hit 45 or more field goals in five of their final six regular season games—even while resting key players. That stretch included a 45-for-93 shooting effort in a convincing 106-96 road win over this same Warriors squad on April 6th.

While Golden State did well to flip the script in Game 1, its offensive struggles continue to linger beneath the surface. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games and 11 of their last 16 overall. Their defensive effort has kept them competitive, but we’ve seen lapses, like the April 13th loss to the Clippers when they allowed 48 made baskets, and of course, that earlier defeat against the Rockets when Houston's offense found its rhythm.

Golden State hasn’t been reliable from a betting perspective either, managing just a 9-12-1 ATS mark over their last 22 contests and stringing together an ATS winning streak (four games) only once since early March.

With their season potentially hanging in the balance should they fall into an 0-2 series hole, I like the Rockets to bring their best effort and snap a four-game slide both straight-up and against the number in this key spot at home.

Take Houston. Projected score: Rockets 109, Warriors 101.

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Lakers were completely out of sync offensively in Game 1, scoring just 95 points on a dismal shooting night. But I'm confident in their ability to bounce back in a must-win Game 2 on their home floor. Remember, Los Angeles still won and covered both regular season meetings with Minnesota at home — even while struggling offensively — so there's precedent for success in this matchup.

Defensively, the Lakers are more than capable of raising their intensity and disrupting a Timberwolves offense that overachieved in Game 1, shooting better than 51% from the field. That type of efficiency is tough to replicate, particularly in back-to-back road games in a hostile environment. Given that the Wolves have already secured a split, we could see a natural letdown in focus.

Trends also support the bounce-back. Minnesota is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an opponent making fewer than 40 field goals — a signal that regression often follows a dominant defensive outing. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games after being held to fewer than 40 field goals, suggesting they tend to respond well when their offense has been flat.

Expect a more composed effort from the Lakers on both ends and for them to pull away late in a critical spot.

Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Lakers 109, Timberwolves 99.

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Monday.

Despite falling short in overtime in Game 1, the Clippers proved they're more than capable of hanging with the Nuggets in the high altitude of Denver, and I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 2. Denver needed a whopping 94 field goal attempts — their highest volume in the last seven games — just to eke out a two-point win on Saturday. That kind of offensive load is unlikely to be sustainable, especially against a Clippers team that’s shown a consistent ability to clamp down defensively.

Los Angeles has held 16 of its last 21 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals, a strong sign of their ability to dictate pace and force inefficient shooting nights. That defensive trend becomes even more relevant given that Denver has allowed seven of its last eight opponents to surpass 43 made field goals — evidence that the Nuggets aren’t exactly thriving on the defensive end themselves.

With the pressure now on the Clippers to even the series, I expect them to deliver a sharper effort, particularly on the defensive end, where they can force Denver into a less efficient performance. Don’t be surprised if the Clippers take better care of the basketball and find easier looks offensively as well.

Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Clippers 112, Nuggets 104.

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 9:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Rockets put together a terrific regular season and have earned home-court advantage in this opening round series, but they couldn’t have drawn a more challenging opponent than the battle-tested Warriors. Golden State enters with a clear edge in postseason experience and will be locked in from the opening tip in Game 1, especially after dropping a rare home game to Houston just two weeks ago.

That loss came in a bit of a letdown spot for the Warriors, who were riding high after five straight wins (4-0-1 ATS), including a statement victory over Denver just 48 hours earlier. Houston was seeking revenge in that matchup after falling at home to the Warriors in the prior meeting. Now the roles are reversed, and Golden State gets the motivational edge as the underdog in the series opener.

While Houston has been strong at home overall (29-12 SU), their record against the spread tells a different story—just 20-21 ATS on their home floor. Golden State, meanwhile, has been one of the NBA’s most reliable road bets this season, posting a 24-16-1 ATS mark away from home to go along with a solid 24-17 SU record.

This matchup sets up well for a veteran Warriors squad that thrives in high-stakes environments. Look for Golden State to set the tone and keep this one tight—or even steal Game 1 outright.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Warriors 111, Rockets 108.

Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday.

We successfully backed the Heat in their emotionally charged win in Chicago on Wednesday, but now is the time to fade them. That game closed the book on a triple-revenge spot against the Bulls, and Miami delivered a defensive clinic to earn a trip to this winner-take-all play-in matchup. But with short rest and another road game on tap, this looks like a tough spot against an Atlanta squad that’s shown resilience in the face of adversity.

The Hawks have been effective playing at a slower pace recently, getting off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games — yet still managing to go 3-2 both straight-up and against the spread in that span. It’s not just the offense that has adjusted well; defensively, Atlanta has been solid, holding five straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals.

This sets up a battle of styles with the Heat, who have hit 44 or more field goals in four of their last five games. But keep in mind that Miami's strong recent showings have come against teams like the Bulls and Raptors — not exactly top-tier competition at this stage.

Revenge is also in play here. The Heat took the last two meetings against Atlanta, but both were in Miami. Back at State Farm Arena, it’s been a different story. The Hawks won both head-to-head matchups at home this season by double digits, and that’s the version of Atlanta I expect to show up in this one.

With a rested roster and some home-court history behind them, I like the Hawks to punch their ticket to the postseason.

Take Atlanta. Projected score: Hawks 111, Heat 104.

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Chicago at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

While the Bulls have had Miami's number this season, sweeping the three-game season series, this sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for the Heat. Chicago comes in riding a wave of momentum, winners of three straight games both straight-up and against the spread, including an 8-point win over Miami just last week. But it's worth noting that the Bulls shot exceptionally well in that game, going 46-for-89 from the field. Asking them to duplicate that shooting effort under the heightened pressure of an elimination game is a stretch.

Meanwhile, Miami has remained offensively sharp despite its late-season skid, connecting on 43 or more field goals in each of its last five games — including a season-high 58 makes in one contest. That offensive consistency should serve the Heat well here, especially against a Chicago team that has allowed 90+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. The Bulls were able to pad their late-season win total against tanking teams like the Wizards and Sixers, but they'll face a more focused and efficient attack on Wednesday.

Chicago hasn't been nearly as effective when laying points, and this will be their first time favored over Miami all season. That dynamic could flip the pressure squarely onto the Bulls’ shoulders, whereas the Heat are a more experienced postseason group that knows how to play in tight games. This one should go down to the wire, and I like the value on Miami catching points in this do-or-die spot.

Take Miami. Projected score: Heat 115, Bulls 112.

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Phoenix at 3:40 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the points with the Kings as they wrap up their regular season at home against a Suns squad that's coming off a rare high point. Phoenix finally snapped its eight-game SU losing streak (and nine-game ATS skid) with a 117-98 win over the Spurs on Friday. That was a much-needed result, but it came against a bottom-tier opponent in a low-stakes spot.

This matchup is a different story. Sacramento returns home needing a bounce-back effort after dropping the first two games of this final three-game homestand. That includes a tight one-point loss to the Clippers on Friday.

The Kings will also be looking to avenge a 122-106 loss in Phoenix from just a few weeks ago (March 14th), which should give them added motivation. Unlike the Suns, Sacramento has played more consistently down the stretch and has a stronger overall foundation to rely on.

This is a good spot to sell high on a Phoenix team likely due for a letdown and back a focused Kings squad.

Take Sacramento. Projected score: Kings 126, Suns 105.

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

We'll back the Rockets in this revenge spot after they dropped a 104-98 decision here in Los Angeles back on March 31st. While Houston is coming off a 134-117 loss to the Clippers, that game was in the same building, giving the Rockets a rest and travel edge over a Lakers team that is just now returning home from an emotional win in Dallas on Wednesday. That game marked Luka Doncic's return, and the Lakers were clearly dialed in as they wrapped up a high-intensity three-game road trip that also included stops in Oklahoma City.

This is a natural letdown spot for Los Angeles, who has been known to play down to opponents, especially as a favorite. Meanwhile, Houston has been competitive down the stretch, even as their postseason hopes have faded. They’ve played close games with a number of playoff-caliber teams, and I expect them to be locked in for a potential spoiler role here.

Even if the Lakers escape with the win, it’s unlikely to come easily.

Take Houston. Projected score: Lakers 114, Rockets 111.

My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over San Antonio at 10 pm et on Friday.

The Suns come into this matchup mired in a brutal nine-game losing streak straight-up and 10-game skid against the spread, but I expect them to finally deliver a focused effort in their home finale. Phoenix should be highly motivated to get back in the win column.

While the Spurs are coming off a shocking outright win in Golden State as 17.5-point underdogs, I see that more as an outlier than a sign of sustainable form. That win snapped a three-game losing streak for San Antonio, and they’ve still dropped eight of their last ten games overall. It’s also worth noting that young teams like the Spurs tend to suffer from consistency issues, especially coming off emotionally charged victories.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high opportunity, with Phoenix expected to respond after an embarrassing stretch. Look for the Suns to control the pace, lean on their depth, and make a statement against a Spurs team that could be primed for a letdown.

Take Phoenix. Projected score: Suns 118, Spurs 102.

My selection is on New York minus the points over Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We'll back the Knicks to bounce back after suffering back-to-back losses both straight-up and against the spread, including a surprising setback in Detroit last night. That game marked a low point in terms of energy and execution, and I expect a far more locked-in effort back home at MSG on Friday.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has little incentive to empty the tank here, coming off a narrow 114-112 loss in Indiana last night in a game where it covered as a big underdog. That marked the Cavs' second straight ATS win, but this feels like a letdown spot ahead of a more meaningful matchup against the Pacers on Sunday — a game that offers a chance at quick revenge and likely holds more playoff-seeding implications.

This is a good opportunity for the Knicks to reset against a Cavs team that's already dealing with injuries and may choose to rest key contributors or manage minutes. New York still has something to play for in terms of seeding and momentum entering the postseason and should be able to control the tempo and take advantage of a tired and potentially disinterested Cleveland squad.

Look for a strong bounce-back performance from the Knicks to close out their regular-season home slate on a high note.

Take New York. Projected score: Knicks 113, Cavaliers 98.

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Thursday.

This sets up as a sneaky good spot to back the Pelicans as underdogs. While New Orleans has lost four in a row straight-up and appears to be playing out the string, it's still been competitive, posting a 5-2-1 ATS mark over its last eight games. Tuesday’s loss and non-cover in Brooklyn wasn’t their sharpest showing, but I like the Pelicans’ chances to bounce back here, especially as they embrace a slower pace that could frustrate Milwaukee.

New Orleans has held three of its last four opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts and six of its last seven to 41 or fewer made field goals. That kind of pace control is key when trying to hang around against a superior opponent, particularly one coming off a potentially draining win. The Bucks just pulled off a high-energy home victory over the Timberwolves and could be ripe for a letdown, especially with a home-and-home against Detroit looming to end the regular season.

While Milwaukee has won five straight, its defense has shown cracks, allowing seven of its last eight opponents to hit 43 or more field goals. That’s not exactly the shutdown profile you want to see from a favorite asked to cover a healthy spread. Offensively, the Bucks have taken 87 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven, limiting their margin for error in games where they’re laying significant points.

This is also a quick revenge spot for the Pelicans, who dropped a 111-107 decision at home on Sunday to a shorthanded Milwaukee squad. New Orleans certainly didn’t feel great about that result and should come out with purpose. All signs point to this being a grind-it-out, slower-paced contest that gives the underdog every opportunity to stay within the number.

Take New Orleans. Projected score: Bucks 114, Pelicans 108.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the under between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

While both teams come in on two-game ‘over’ streaks, this matchup sets up well for a return to a lower-scoring affair. Atlanta has quietly shifted into a more controlled pace recently, holding six of its last seven opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts, with five of those held to 84 or fewer. That’s a key trend for a Hawks squad that has seen its defensive numbers skewed by red-hot shooting performances from its last four opponents, all of whom shot 50% or better from the field. Brooklyn, however, has been struggling to finish plays and shouldn't be expected to maintain the same efficiency as Atlanta’s recent opponents.

The Nets have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in 11 consecutive games, and while they did shoot well last time out, that came against a Pelicans team that hasn’t exactly been stout defensively. Brooklyn has also leaned into a slower tempo, holding five of its last six opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of its last 24 to fewer than 90.

These two teams met on March 16th and combined for 236 points, but that was a back-to-back spot for both, and each team got up 90 field goal attempts. That’s unlikely to be repeated here with both squads coming in rested and trending toward slower, more deliberate play.

This isn’t a spot where either team will need to push the pace for a full four quarters. Atlanta is a double-digit favorite, and a second-half slowdown is certainly in play if the game gets out of hand. With both teams quietly improving on the defensive end and limiting possessions, the setup points to a lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Hawks 117, Nets 106.

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This is a brutal scheduling spot for the Kings, who return home after a successful four-game road swing that wrapped up with three straight SU and ATS wins. That trip concluded in Detroit on Monday, meaning they’ve had to travel back across three time zones with short rest before facing a rested and highly motivated Nuggets team.

Denver, meanwhile, has been stewing since Sunday following its fourth straight upset loss, both straight-up and against the spread. Despite the losing streak, the Nuggets have actually kept pace with the Kings offensively, with both teams lighting it up from the field in recent games. The key difference here is situational: Denver is well-rested, catching Sacramento in a clear fatigue spot.

While Denver has struggled defensively of late, it’s largely been due to allowing a high shot volume. That could be mitigated here against a Kings team playing its fourth game in six days, coming off significant travel. Look for the Nuggets to clamp down and make a statement as they look to get back on track with the playoffs looming.

Take Denver. Projected score: Nuggets 122, Kings 108.

Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This sets up as a strong situational spot for the Magic, who are catching the Celtics at the tail-end of a three-games-in-four-nights stretch in three different cities. Boston needed late-game heroics to force overtime in Tuesday’s win at Madison Square Garden, and with a return home looming along with two games against the Hornets to close out the season, this feels like a natural letdown spot.

Orlando, on the other hand, is in the thick of the playoff hunt and has looked the part, winning seven of its last nine games and covering six times during that stretch. Even with last night's win over Atlanta, this is a relatively fresh Magic squad that hadn't played since last Thursday before that contest. They should still have plenty in the tank here.

Defensively, Orlando has been outstanding, holding 11 straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. That figures to be a key edge against a Celtics team that hasn't exactly been ramping up tempo—attempting 87 or fewer shots in three of its last four games.

With superior defensive intensity, more rest, and a focused mindset as they fight for playoff seeding, the Magic are well-positioned to get the job done at home against a fatigued Boston team.

Take Orlando. Projected score: Magic 112, Celtics 102.

My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Spurs have dropped consecutive games, including a point spread loss in Portland on Sunday, they’ve still quietly covered in seven of their last 11 contests, showing more fight than their record would suggest. Defensively, San Antonio has turned a corner lately, holding its last three opponents to 38, 41, and 42 made field goals, a solid indicator that their intensity has ticked up down the stretch.

The Clippers, on the other hand, might be due for a bit of a letdown after sweeping their two-game weekend set against Dallas in convincing fashion. They've won four straight games outright and covered two in a row, but they’ve also allowed fewer than 78 field goal attempts in three of their last four games—a rate that doesn’t figure to hold against a Spurs team that’s launched 97, 94, and 95 field goal attempts over its last three outings.

Additionally, the Clips could experience a bit of offensive regression here following two days off. In Saturday’s blowout win over Dallas, they put up an unusually high 96 field goal attempts and converted at an elite clip (54 makes, or 56% from the field). That type of efficiency is hard to replicate, especially against a Spurs team playing hard despite their standing.

Los Angeles has taken two of three meetings in this series this season, but neither of those wins came by more than 12 points. With the Spurs still playing hard and likely pushing the pace, this could be closer than expected.

Take San Antonio. Projected score: Clippers 117, Spurs 110.

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

This sets up as a revenge-fueled spot for the Thunder after they were embarrassed at home by the Lakers on Sunday, falling 126-99 in a game that saw OKC completely out of rhythm offensively. That defeat marked the second straight loss for the Thunder, who were also upset by Houston prior to that. But with Tuesday serving as Oklahoma City's final home game of the regular season, expect a focused, playoff-style effort.

The Lakers, meanwhile, have strung together consecutive dominant wins—both outright and ATS—but are in a clear lookahead/back-to-back situation with a road game in Dallas looming on Wednesday night. That's a far more winnable contest, and L.A. will likely be cautious with minutes and rotations as a result.

Look for the Thunder to play with urgency and intensity as they try to get right heading into a challenging final three-game road trip before the playoffs.

Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Thunder 127, Lakers 106

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Chicago at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cavaliers are in a prime bounce-back spot here after suffering an upset home loss to Sacramento on Sunday. With the regular season winding down, urgency becomes a factor, and Cleveland’s upcoming slate is no cakewalk with road games at New York and Indiana before wrapping things up with a rematch against the Pacers. That makes this a must-have game against a beatable Bulls team.

Chicago enters riding a three-game winning streak, including a blowout win over Charlotte, but its ATS form has cooled considerably after a scorching 10-0-1 run in March—now sitting at just 2-3 ATS over the last five. Much of the Bulls' late-season success has been fueled by efficient shooting, but they’ll face a Cavs squad that’s been lockdown defensively, allowing more than 44 made field goals just once in their last eight games.

Notably, Cleveland has dominated this season series, taking all three meetings with two of those wins coming by 18 points or more. Meanwhile, the Bulls' defense has started to leak down the stretch, giving up 44+ field goals in six of their last seven games—a red flag heading into a matchup against a motivated Cavs side.

Cleveland’s ability to clamp down on the defensive end, paired with its proven success against this opponent, should be the difference.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cavaliers 126, Bulls 107.

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

While the Sixers have been mired in a rough stretch, this sets up as a sneaky good spot to back them catching points in Miami. The Heat are coming off an emotional high followed by a letdown, having seen their nine-game ATS winning streak snapped in Saturday’s overtime loss to the Bucks. That game followed a statement road win in Boston last Wednesday, and now they return to face a Philly squad they thoroughly dominated just over a week ago. That makes this a prime flat spot, especially with the postseason looming.

Philadelphia has quietly shown signs of life since that 118-95 blowout loss on March 29th. The Sixers have connected on 42+ field goals in three of their last four games and have been controlling tempo on the defensive end — yielding 85, 82, and 81 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, both of these teams have slowed the pace considerably, with Miami holding each of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts.

With the total set at just 213, we’re not expecting a shootout. In a slower-paced, grind-it-out type of game, this becomes a value spot for the underdog. The Sixers are in bounce-back mode and should be motivated to avoid a season sweep at the hands of a division rival.

Take Philadelphia.Projected score: Heat 107, 76ers 101.

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Sacramento at 7 pm ET on Monday.

We were a game early fading the Kings, who pulled off a gritty 112-109 win over the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Sunday. But it’s tough to trust them to sustain that effort on short rest in the back half of a back-to-back — especially given their underwhelming 19-21 record away from home this season. This marks Sacramento’s fifth game of a six-game road trip, and with the final three coming back at home, this has all the makings of a flat spot.

Detroit, meanwhile, returns to action rested after suffering a 109-103 loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. While that result was disappointing, the Pistons showed encouraging signs by getting off 96 field goal attempts. The issue was efficiency, as they shot just 38.5% from the floor. Expect some regression toward the mean on Monday, particularly against a Kings squad that has allowed 115.8 points per game on the road this season.

This sets up as a good opportunity for the Pistons to bounce back at home. With their regular season winding down and tougher matchups on deck, this is a prime spot for them to deliver a focused effort and snag a win against a potentially weary opponent.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Pistons 119, Kings 106.

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and New Orleans at 8:30 pm ET on Sunday.

Milwaukee’s six-game ‘over’ streak is a bit deceptive. While it may look like the Bucks have been involved in track meets, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Saturday’s 121-115 overtime win in Miami was yet another example of a game inflating the scoreboard due to extra time, not tempo. Milwaukee has attempted fewer than 90 field goals in 14 consecutive games and has been held to 82 or fewer attempts in regulation in five straight.

That sort of pace generally doesn’t fuel high-scoring results unless both teams are exceptionally efficient—which is asking a lot on tired legs in a back-to-back situation. New Orleans, meanwhile, is coming off a two-game L.A. swing and returns home on short rest. Offensively, the Pelicans have struggled to generate consistent production, making just 43, 33, 38, 43, and 40 field goals over their last five games. They’ve also been grinding games to a halt defensively, limiting their last two opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts.

This sets up as a classic post-overtime ‘under’ spot with both teams in less-than-ideal scheduling situations. Expect a slower, more physical game than the market anticipates.

Take the under. Projected score: Bucks 108, Pelicans 105.

My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:30 pm ET on Sunday.

Milwaukee is riding high after a hard-fought 121-115 overtime win in Miami on Saturday, their third straight victory. But this is a tough scheduling spot, as the Bucks are now playing the second leg of a back-to-back on the road with a marquee home showdown against Minnesota looming on Tuesday. That sets the table for a potential letdown performance on Sunday night.

New Orleans, meanwhile, continues to battle despite being out of the playoff picture. The Pelicans have quietly covered four of their last six games (4-1-1 ATS) and return home after a competitive loss to the Lakers on Friday. This team has continued to play with pride, and with extra rest and fresher legs, they're in a great position to hang tough or even pull the upset against a potentially flat Bucks squad.

With the line having already ticked down following Milwaukee’s exhausting win last night, there’s still value in backing a Pelicans team that has shown resiliency and is getting points at home.

Take New Orleans. Projected score: Bucks 108, Pelicans 105.

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Sacramento at 6 pm ET on Sunday.

We backed Sacramento successfully on Friday in its blowout win over Charlotte, but this is a much tougher spot for the Kings as they continue a grueling six-game road trip. Now they face a motivated Cavaliers squad looking to avenge a 123-119 road loss suffered in Sacramento just two weeks ago—on the second night of a back-to-back.

Cleveland has had time to rest and regroup since narrowly escaping with a one-point home win over the Spurs on Friday—a game in which it underperformed against the spread. That poor ATS result should sharpen the Cavs' focus here, especially with the Kings coming in off back-to-back high-scoring victories against two non-playoff teams.

While Sacramento has flashed offensive upside, it's worth noting that this matchup against a more physical and defensively sound Cavs squad presents a different challenge. The Kings could be in for a letdown performance with fatigue starting to factor in after multiple games away from home.

Cleveland has fared well in bounce-back and revenge situations and should be able to slow the pace and impose its style of play in this one.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cavaliers 122, Kings 108.

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The betting market hasn’t fully adjusted to the slower pace and improved defensive intensity in this matchup. The first three meetings between the Mavericks and Clippers this season have all stayed comfortably under the number, totaling 213, 210, and just 205 points in last night’s one-sided affair.

Dallas had been on an 'over' tear but has now seen back-to-back games stay under the total, largely due to a sharp dip in offensive efficiency and a declining volume of field goal attempts. The Mavs have hoisted 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last six games and now face a Clippers defense that held them to just 77 shot attempts on Friday night. In fact, L.A. has limited two of its last three opponents to 77 or fewer attempts from the field.

The Clippers themselves have also been operating at a slower pace offensively, getting off 82 or fewer shots in three of their last five games. While they shot efficiently last night (44-of-89), Dallas has held four of its last five opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals, suggesting a potential regression in shooting efficiency for L.A.

With both teams trending toward defensive-minded, grind-it-out basketball, and given the familiarity between them after three earlier low-scoring meetings, this total feels a touch too high once again.

Take the under. Projected score: Clippers 107, Mavericks 104.

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Clippers took last night's matchup between these two teams in lopsided fashion 114-91 but it's worth noting that the Mavericks, as much as they've struggled this season, have gone 5-3 SU over their last eight games and haven't lost consecutive games since a four-game slide in mid-March. They do enter this contest off three straight ATS defeats but I look for them to end that skid here.

The betting market hasn’t fully adjusted to the slower pace and improved defensive intensity in this matchup. The first three meetings between the Mavericks and Clippers this season have all stayed comfortably under the number, totaling 213, 210, and just 205 points in last night’s one-sided affair.

Dallas had been on an 'over' tear but has now seen back-to-back games stay under the total, largely due to a sharp dip in offensive efficiency and a declining volume of field goal attempts. The Mavs have hoisted 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last six games and now face a Clippers defense that held them to just 77 shot attempts on Friday night. In fact, L.A. has limited two of its last three opponents to 77 or fewer attempts from the field.

The Clippers themselves have also been operating at a slower pace offensively, getting off 82 or fewer shots in three of their last five games. While they shot efficiently last night (44-of-89), Dallas has held four of its last five opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals, suggesting a potential regression in shooting efficiency for L.A.

With both teams trending toward defensive-minded, grind-it-out basketball, and given the familiarity between them after three earlier low-scoring meetings, this total feels a touch too high once again.

Take Dallas. Projected score: Clippers 107, Mavericks 104.

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Boston at 7:30 pm ET on Friday.

These teams just met last week, with Boston cruising to a 132-102 win. While that game soared 'over' the total, it was largely due to the Celtics' red-hot shooting rather than an elevated pace. Since that contest, Phoenix has dropped four straight games, all of which have gone 'over,' but I expect a different tempo in this rematch.

Boston is coming off a surprising home loss to Miami and will likely respond with a more disciplined defensive effort. The Celtics held the Heat to just 83 field goal attempts in that contest, but Miami was highly efficient, making 43 shots, which contributed to the 'over' cashing. However, if the pace remains slow, we may not see the same level of offensive efficiency from either team this time.

With the total creeping too high based on recent results, I'll look for a lower-scoring battle in Boston.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Celtics 114, Suns 105.

Non-Conference Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Sacramento is in a strong bounce-back position after suffering a shocking upset loss to Washington as a double-digit favorite two nights ago. That marked the Kings' third straight defeat, but they now get a prime opportunity to respond against a Hornets team that has been fortunate to cover the spread in back-to-back games.

Charlotte's recent success has been built on unsustainable shooting performances. The Hornets attempted just 80 and 78 field goals in their last two contests while allowing 96 and 95, respectively, yet still managed to shoot over 52% from the field in both games. That level of efficiency is unlikely to continue, especially against a Kings team that dominated the first meeting this season, rolling to a 42-point victory on February 24th.

Expect Sacramento to take control early and cruise to a comfortable win.

Take Sacramento. Projected score: Kings 122, Hornets 103.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Both of these teams enter this matchup riding three-game 'over' streaks, but I expect that trend to reverse. The Timberwolves are coming off a hard-fought double-overtime win in Denver on Tuesday. Despite that extended contest, they still managed to hold the Nuggets to just 86 field goal attempts, highlighting their ability to dictate tempo with strong defense. Minnesota has limited two other opponents to just 79 and 68 field goal attempts since March 21st, showing a commitment to slowing the pace.

Brooklyn has been content to play at a methodical speed as well, with seven of its last eight opponents getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts. On the offensive end, the Nets have struggled to generate consistent production, connecting on 40 or fewer field goals in eight consecutive games. With both teams emphasizing defense and controlling possessions, I expect points to come at a premium.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Timberwolves 108, Nets 101.

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

The 76ers are in desperation mode as they try to snap a nine-game losing streak, and I expect them to give a strong effort against a Bucks team that may be in a tough spot following a red-hot shooting performance in its last outing. Milwaukee shot a ridiculous 51-of-74 in its win over Phoenix on Tuesday, an efficiency level that’s unlikely to be repeated here.

One key factor working against Milwaukee covering a large spread is its pace of play. The Bucks have attempted just 75, 82, and 74 field goals over their last three contests and haven’t taken 90 or more shots in a game since March 9th. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed four straight opponents to take 90+ shots, with each of those teams connecting on at least 44 field goals.

Philadelphia has dropped all three meetings with Milwaukee this season, but that only adds to its motivation here. Look for the 76ers to keep this one close.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Bucks 116, 76ers 111.

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

This is a rematch of a March 15th matchup in Detroit, where the Thunder won 113-107 while covering the spread. Oklahoma City has been a strong ATS team all season and enters this game on a four-game ATS winning streak. However, I expect the Pistons to put up a strong fight on Wednesday.

Detroit is coming off a 123-104 loss in Minnesota on Sunday, snapping its three-game SU and two-game ATS winning streaks. The Pistons struggled with their shooting in that game, hitting just 34 of 95 field goal attempts. That marked a stark contrast to their prior six games, where they had made 44 or more field goals each time. A bounce-back offensive performance is likely here.

Meanwhile, OKC is coming off a scorching 52-of-98 shooting night in a 145-117 rout of the Bulls on Monday, marking its third straight 20+ point win. That kind of offensive explosion is difficult to sustain, and I expect a much tighter game this time around.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Thunder 116, Pistons 111.

Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Nuggets will be eager for revenge after suffering a 115-95 home loss to the Timberwolves on March 12th. While Denver has had some trouble covering spreads recently, this is a great situational spot for the defending champions.

Denver is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time in nearly a month and looked dominant in a 129-93 rout of Utah last Friday. With three full days of rest and playing at home for the fourth straight game, the Nuggets should be primed for a strong performance.

Minnesota enters this matchup off consecutive wins and covers at home against Phoenix and Detroit. However, this is a tricky scheduling spot for the Timberwolves as they embark on a five-game road trip that will take them across the country. After playing seven of their last eight games at home, the shift to the road could present some early challenges.

Look for Denver to take advantage of this spot and pick up a comfortable win.

Take Denver. Projected score: Nuggets 118, Timberwolves 107.

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

The 76ers have been in freefall, losing eight straight games SU and seven in a row ATS. However, I believe that has led to an inflated line as they take on the Knicks in Manhattan.

New York could be caught looking ahead to a tougher test in Cleveland on Wednesday, making this a potential letdown spot after back-to-back impressive wins over Milwaukee and Portland. While the Knicks sit comfortably ahead of Philadelphia in the standings, their three previous meetings this season have been relatively competitive, with none decided by more than 12 points.

The most recent matchup between these two teams came on February 26th in New York, where the Knicks won by five points but failed to cover a double-digit spread. I expect a similar result here, with Philadelphia doing just enough to keep things close.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Knicks 112, 76ers 107.

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Miami at 7 pm ET on Monday.

We'll grab all the points we can with the Wizards as they look to bounce back from consecutive home losses, including an 'upset' defeat against the Nets on Saturday. While Washington is firmly in the race for the top draft pick, I still expect it to play hard down the stretch. Here, we're getting an ample number of points in a double-revenge spot after dropping both previous meetings with Miami this season—neither of which took place in Washington.

The Heat have been rolling, winning four straight games SU and covering six in a row ATS. However, this is a potential letdown spot for them ahead of Wednesday’s matchup with the defending champion Celtics in Boston. Miami remains just 15-22 on the road this season and is only four games removed from a brutal 10-game losing streak. This feels like the right time to fade the Heat and take the points with the Wizards at home.

Take Washington. Projected score: Miami 113, Washington 110.

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Los Angeles at 3:30 pm ET on Sunday.

The Clippers come into this matchup riding an impressive eight-game ATS winning streak and have started their four-game road trip with back-to-back victories. However, this game presents a challenging spot for them, as they face a Cleveland squad that will be eager to bounce back after consecutive ATS losses, including a disappointing outright defeat against lowly Detroit on Friday. The Cavaliers have likely had this rematch circled after falling 132-119 in an ‘upset’ loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles on March 18th. Given that previous result, expect a motivated effort from Cleveland at home.

Despite their recent struggles, the Cavaliers have been one of the tougher home teams in the league, and this is the ideal opportunity for them to get back on track. The Clippers’ winning streak has been impressive, but maintaining that level of play on the road against a well-rested Cleveland squad won’t be easy. Look for the Cavs to control the tempo, tighten up defensively, and respond with a strong effort to hand the Clippers a rare ATS setback.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cleveland 121, Los Angeles 108.

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and San Antonio at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring games, I anticipate a much different tempo in this matchup. The Celtics have been controlling the pace effectively, holding five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That level of defensive focus has contributed to their current seven-game winning streak and four-game ATS run. Boston’s ability to dictate tempo and limit transition opportunities will be key against a Spurs team that prefers to push the pace but lacks consistency on the offensive end.

San Antonio is coming off a chaotic 124-116 loss to Cleveland, a game in which they managed 106 shot attempts but still struggled to score efficiently. The Spurs have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in three consecutive contests, showing their offensive limitations despite the high volume of shots. The first meeting between these teams back in February resulted in just 219 total points, and with Boston’s defensive intensity ramping up, another relatively low-scoring affair seems likely.

Take the under. Projected score: Boston 113, San Antonio 104.

My selection is on Golden State minus the points over New Orleans at 8:00 pm ET on Friday.

Golden State is in a prime spot to bounce back after suffering consecutive upset losses to open its six-game road trip. The Warriors have now dropped three straight games ATS, but this matchup presents a favorable opportunity to turn things around. Despite recent struggles, Golden State remains a battle-tested team that has historically responded well in these types of situations. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are coming off a strong win and cover against Philadelphia and have now posted back-to-back ATS victories. However, they’ve been inconsistent of late, going just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS over their last seven contests. Notably, New Orleans hasn’t recorded three straight ATS wins since February, suggesting they could be due for a letdown in this spot.

Golden State’s urgency to get back on track should be evident from the opening tip, especially against a Pelicans team that has been up and down in recent weeks. Look for the Warriors to control the tempo and deliver a much-needed statement win on the road.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Warriors 125, Pelicans 106.

My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm ET on Friday.

This game has the potential to be a slower-paced, lower-scoring affair by today’s NBA standards, making the underdog points with Brooklyn appealing. The Nets have likely had this matchup circled since suffering an embarrassing 126-67 loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back in January. While Brooklyn enters this contest riding a five-game losing streak, its recent defensive play has been encouraging. Prior to allowing Toronto to put up 102 field goal attempts two nights ago, the Nets had held four consecutive opponents to 87 or fewer shot attempts. That’s a key factor in this matchup, as Los Angeles also prefers a more methodical offensive approach, having attempted 88 or fewer shots in four straight and six of its last seven games.

The Clippers come in riding a seven-game ATS winning streak, fresh off a convincing double-digit victory over the Knicks. However, it wouldn't be surprising to see them look past this game with a much tougher test looming against Cleveland on Sunday. Given Brooklyn’s ability to slow the tempo and the extra motivation stemming from the previous blowout loss, I expect this one to be much closer than expected.

Take Brooklyn. Projected score: Clippers 107, Nets 103.

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

The Rockets are in a good spot to bounce back ATS after three straight non-covers, coming off a 121-114 home win over Atlanta on Tuesday. With two days off after this contest, expect Houston to bring full intensity as it looks to avenge a 124-115 loss in Salt Lake City back on February 22nd.

Utah, on the other hand, has been reeling, winning just once since the start of March. The Jazz enter this contest on a three-game SU and ATS skid, suffering blowout losses by 22, 29, and 37 points. With a grueling five-game road trip beginning tomorrow in Denver, their focus could be elsewhere.

Look for the Rockets to take care of business against a struggling Jazz squad.

Take Houston. Projected score: Rockets 124, Jazz 106.

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

The Nuggets enter this matchup looking to bounce back from an unexpected home loss to the surging Bulls on Monday. That defeat came in a tough scheduling spot, as it was the second game of a back-to-back following a four-game road trip. Now, Denver is in a much better position with a full day of rest, while the visiting Bucks find themselves in a more difficult scenario. Milwaukee is wrapping up a five-game western road trip and is coming off a grueling two-point loss in Phoenix on Monday. While the Bucks have covered the spread in three straight games, fatigue could become a factor here, especially against a well-rested Nuggets team that has been dominant at home all season.

Beyond the scheduling advantage, the Nuggets have extra motivation after suffering an 'upset' loss in Milwaukee on February 27th. Denver has consistently been one of the league’s best home teams, using its altitude advantage and disciplined style of play to wear down opponents. The Bucks, on the other hand, have been inconsistent defensively, which could spell trouble against a Nuggets squad that excels at executing in the half-court. Look for Denver to take control early and cruise to a convincing victory as it returns to form.

Take Denver. Projected score: Nuggets 119, Bucks 102.

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest in the midst of prolonged losing streaks, with the Wizards dropping five straight both SU and ATS, while the 76ers have also lost five in a row outright and failed to cover in their last four contests. The difference is that Washington has every incentive to keep piling up losses as it looks to secure the league's worst record and improve its chances of landing highly touted prospect Cooper Flagg in the draft. That tanking mindset has been reflected in their recent offensive performances, as they've connected on fewer than 40 field goals in three straight and six of their last nine games. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has at least managed to slow the pace in recent contests, holding four straight and six of its last seven opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts.

While the Sixers' defense has struggled mightily, their offensive production has still been superior to Washington’s, as they’ve made 40 or more field goals in four of their last six games. The 76ers already handled the Wizards at home earlier this season, winning outright but failing to cover a double-digit spread. This time around, they’re laying a much more reasonable number, making this a prime opportunity for them to snap their losing skid. With Washington likely looking ahead to a five-game homestand starting Thursday, Philadelphia should take advantage and roll to a comfortable victory.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: 76ers 118, Wizards 103.

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Houston at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The Hawks enter this game riding a four-game 'over' streak, while the Rockets saw their most recent contest go 'over' the total as well. However, I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Houston, much like we saw in the first meeting between these teams this season, which totaled just 196 points in Atlanta back in late January. While the Hawks have been impressive offensively during their current three-game winning streak, their defense has quietly been just as effective. They've held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and have done a solid job of disrupting opposing offenses, allowing 90 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have struggled mightily on the offensive end, making just 38, 39, and 39 field goals over their last three games. The silver lining for Houston has been its defensive consistency, as it has held six of its last eight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. With their offense in a slump, the Rockets have made a clear effort to slow the pace, allowing just 73 and 87 field goal attempts in their last two games. That slower tempo, combined with both teams’ recent defensive trends, points toward a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers anticipate.

Take the under. Projected score: Rockets 114, Hawks 109.

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York minus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Knicks as this spot sets up well for them, having been idle since Saturday and looking for revenge after suffering a double-digit 'upset' loss in Dallas earlier this season. The Mavericks have won back-to-back games straight-up and three in a row against the spread. They've been shooting exceptionally well but have also benefited from a relatively soft schedule in terms of recent defensive opponents. That won’t be the case on Tuesday, as they face a Knicks squad that has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals and six of those foes to fewer than 40.

Dallas has essentially thrown defense out the window in recent weeks, and the Knicks appear primed to take advantage. New York has been playing at a slightly faster pace recently, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests. That increase in tempo, combined with the Mavericks' defensive shortcomings, should pave the way for a strong offensive performance from the Knicks. Look for them to control this game from start to finish and roll to a convincing double-digit victory.

Take New York. Projected score: Knicks 119, Mavericks 104.

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over San Antonio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Pistons as they look to snap their three-game ATS losing streak against the Spurs. Detroit claimed the lone previous meeting between these teams this season, winning 125-110 back in February. That game could have been even more lopsided if not for an unusually strong shooting performance from San Antonio, which went 43-of-84 from the field. The Spurs enter this matchup riding a three-game straight-up and ATS winning streak, most recently dominating Toronto 123-89 on Sunday. However, the Raptors shot just 35-for-92 in that contest, a level of inefficiency the Pistons are unlikely to replicate.

Notably, San Antonio has struggled to maintain defensive momentum, as the last four times it has held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals, it has subsequently allowed 46, 49, 47, and 51 made field goals in the following contest, going just 1-3 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense has been clicking, recording 46 or more made field goals in four straight contests. While its defense hasn’t been dominant, the Pistons have done a good job limiting their opponents’ shot volume, allowing 86 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. Expect Detroit to dictate the tempo and pull away for a convincing double-digit win.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Pistons 122, Spurs 106.

My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Boston at 10 pm ET on Monday.

The Kings will be eager to bounce back following consecutive home losses, including a six-point setback against Milwaukee on Saturday. While Boston enters this game riding a five-game winning streak, this is a tough back-to-back spot for the Celtics, who just played in Portland last night and are in the middle of a long six-game western road trip.

While Boston will be seeking revenge after losing at home to Sacramento in January, the Celtics have bigger aspirations at this stage of the season and may not be fully locked in for this one. Look for the Kings to take advantage.

Take Sacramento. Projected score: Boston 113, Sacramento 112.

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 8 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this contest in back-to-back situations, which could lead to a sluggish offensive performance on both ends. While Philadelphia has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, its defensive issues may not be as glaring in this matchup given New Orleans’ inconsistency on offense. The Pelicans just put up 130 points in a loss to Detroit, but they haven’t strung together consecutive high-scoring performances in quite some time.

New Orleans has been playing at a slower pace, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in seven of its last eight games while also limiting opponents to the same threshold in six straight contests. The 76ers have also held five of their last six opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. While the first meeting between these teams produced 238 total points, it was played at a faster pace than what we should expect in this one.

Take the under. Projected score: New Orleans 113, Philadelphia 108.

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Orlando at 7 pm ET on Monday.

The Lakers will be out for revenge after dropping a one-point decision to the Magic earlier this season. Los Angeles also needs a response after suffering back-to-back blowout home losses to Milwaukee and Chicago, falling by 29 and 31 points, respectively. This is an ideal bounce-back opportunity against an Orlando squad that, while coming off a win and cover over Washington, hasn't strung together consecutive victories since mid-February.

While the Lakers have a day off following this game, the Magic will have to turn around quickly for a road game in Charlotte on Tuesday. I expect Los Angeles to take advantage and get back on track.

Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Los Angeles 118, Orlando 106.

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 9 pm ET on Sunday.

This total is the highest we've seen in this matchup all season, which feels like an overcorrection given how these teams typically play against each other. Their highest previous posted total was 220.5, and that game ended with just 197 total points.

Both squads enter off hot shooting performances, but these are two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Clippers may have hit 132 and 128 points in their last two games, but they attempted just 84 and 78 field goals, indicating a reliance on unsustainable efficiency. Meanwhile, they've limited four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, while the Thunder have held three straight foes to 37 or fewer.

With both teams likely to settle into a more defensive-minded battle, I expect this game to stay under the total.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Clippers 110, Thunder 107.

My selection is on Denver plus the points over Houston at 7 pm ET on Sunday.

The Nuggets enter this matchup looking to stop a two-game skid, both SU and ATS, on their current road trip. They'll be highly motivated to close out the trip with a victory and gain some revenge for a lopsided home loss against Houston back in mid-January.

While the Rockets are on an impressive nine-game winning streak, they've covered the spread in just one of their last four outings. Their recent success has led to some inflated lines, and this looks like another spot where they may be overvalued.

Expect a focused effort from the Nuggets as they take this one down to the wire.

Take Denver. Projected score: Rockets 113, Nuggets 111.

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Utah at 3:30 pm ET on Sunday.

The Cavaliers have dropped four straight both SU and ATS, but they have a prime opportunity to turn things around against a struggling Jazz squad. Utah's defensive issues have been glaring, as it has allowed 13 consecutive opponents to attempt at least 90 field goals, with the last six making 42 or more shots.

Cleveland's recent struggles have largely come on the defensive end, but Utah isn’t in a position to fully capitalize, having made fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last five games. Look for the Cavaliers to take advantage of this matchup and roll to a much-needed win.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Cavaliers 127, Jazz 104.