Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-30-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Dodgers on the run-line last night as a two-out, two-run single from Randal Grichuk ultimately cost us the win. With that being said, I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Saturday. Los Angeles will send Clayton Kershaw to the hill after he struggled against the Giants last time out (the Dodgers still won that game 7-4). Note that he has posted a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.61 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Kyle Freeland. He checks in sporting a 4.32 FIP and 1.36 WHIP, allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Freeland gives up 2.6 more hits and 1.0 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. The Dodgers should have the advantage in the later innings of this one as well as their bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road this season while the Rockies 'pen has posted a 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-30-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Yankees on the run-line last night as they exploded in the eighth inning in an eventual lopsided victory, and I won’t hesitate to come right back with the same play on Saturday afternoon. Jon Heasley will take the ball for the Royals. His rookie campaign has been a disaster in many regards. He has posted a 5.49 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while giving up a whopping 5.85 runs per nine innings. Heasley isn’t likely to get much help from a Royals bullpen that owns a 4.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Nestor Cortes Jr. will counter for New York. The All-Star has recorded a 3.41 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while yielding only 2.57 runs per nine innings this season. Unlike the Royals, the Yankees have a tremendous bullpen that owns a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We’ll confidently back the Dodgers on Friday as they hand the ball to Julio Urias against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. Urias enters with a 3.91 FIP and 1.00 WHIP this season, giving up just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. He checks in allowing 2.4 fewer hits and 1.6 fewer walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on Friday, Kuhl. Kuhl sports a 4.59 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season. He got off to a fine start to his first campaign with the Rockies but things have gone downhill since. Note that he is allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings and faces a tall task in the Dodgers loaded lineup here. The bullpens are a mismatch as well as the Dodgers ‘pen has been terrific on the road this season, posting a collective 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP (entering last night’s action), converting nine saves while blowing only two. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-29-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves following a disappointing series in Philadelphia. It’s been a much different story for his counterpart on Friday, Kyle Wright of the Braves. He checks in with a 3.32 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.18 runs per nine innings. While Arizona does bring solid bullpen form into this series-opener, much of the recent success that it has enjoyed has come at home. On the road, the D’Backs have recorded a collective 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Braves ‘pen owns a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-29-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Even though he’s pitched well lately, we’ll continue to go against Royals starter Kris Bubic as we continue to anticipate some regression from recent form. On the season, Bubic has recorded a 5.08 FIP and 1.65 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.19 runs per nine innings. He faced the Yankees once previously back in April and that start didn’t go particularly well as he was tagged for three earned runs on four hits, including two home runs, over five innings in a 12-2 loss. Gerrit Cole will counter for the Yankees on Friday. The All-Star is having another fine season having posted a 3.24 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 3.17 runs per nine innings. He should be pleased to see the Royals, noting that he owns a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six career starts against them. The Yankees bullpen went through a bit of a rough patch recently but has since turned it around, posting a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Yanks ‘pen has recorded a 2.88 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home, converting 17 saves and blowing only five. Meanwhile, the Royals relief corps has posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road, converting 12 saves and blowing nine. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-28-22 | Rangers v. Angels -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have been a major disappointment this season and that narrative has held true this week as they just got swept (again) by the Mariners. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat for Thursday's series-opener against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. While Ohtani's bat hasn't been quite as explosive as it was last season, his arm has been just as effective as he checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.41 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing just under 2.9 runs per nine innings. He didn't have his best stuff in his most recent start in Atlanta but actually kept his team in the game for five solid innings before imploding (we cashed with the Angels +0.5 first five innings in that game). I expect him to bounce back here at home on Thursday. Ohtani's counterpart on Thursday will be Spencer Howard of the Rangers. He's been the polar opposite of Ohtani, recording an 8.01 FIP and 1.78 WHIP while giving up just under 7.5 runs per nine frames. Behind Howard is a Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-28-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs first five innings over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel the Blue Jays are overvalued here, especially when you consider we can grab an insurance run with the Tigers in the first five innings at such a reasonable price. Tyler Alexander will get his first start for the Tigers since April. He suffered an injury and then when he returned to the bigs he was relegated to bullpen duty, and pitched reasonably well in that role. Alexander has posted a 4.32 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season. While those numbers aren't all that impressive, they're certainly better than those of his counterpart on Thursday, Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi returns from the I.L. on Thursday and prior to that, things weren't going well as he had recorded a 5.82 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 5.95 runs per nine innings. Note that the Tigers average 4.0 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season compared to their season scoring average of just 3.2 rpg. The bullpens are essentially a wash with the Blue Jays holding a slight advantage in terms of recent form. With that in mind, we'll grab the +1.5 cushion with the Tigers in the first five innings. Take Detroit +1.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-27-22 | Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll confidently back the Dodgers minus the extra run as they give Andrew Heaney his first start in a long time after dealing with a shoulder injury. Heaney draws a favorable opponent in his return to the rotation in the Nationals and also has the edge against Washington starter Patrick Corbin, who continues to struggle through the 2022 campaign. Heaney has been working his way back in the minor league ranks and most recently fared well at the AAA level, posting a 1.23 ERA and 0.55 WHIP in two starts covering 7 1/3 innings at Oklahoma City. He’s logged 15 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, recording a 2.15 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while giving up only 1.76 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). Corbin has been discussed as a trade deadline target but I’m not sure why any teams would be interested considering his 4.61 FIP and 1.70 WHIP this season. He has allowed a whopping 6.96 runs per nine innings. As I’ve noted on multiple previous occasions, the Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, entering last night’s action sporting a 5.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Look for the Dodgers to wear out the Nats pitching staff in this one. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-26-22 | Rays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I’ll back the Rays in the first five innings in Baltimore on Tuesday as they hand the ball to their ace and American League All-Star Game starter Shane McClanahan. The left-hander didn’t exactly have a banner performance in his lone inning of work in the All-Star Game but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s having a fantastic season, having posted a 2.42 FIP and 0.80 WHIP while giving up only 2.11 runs per nine innings. He should be happy to be facing the Orioles here, noting that he owns a 2.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five career outings against them. Orioles starter Spenser Watkins hasn’t been nearly as successful against the Rays. In five career starts against them he owns an ugly 7.71 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Watkins has struggled as a whole this season, posting a 4.50 FIP and 1.37 WHIP, yielding just north of 4.6 runs per nine innings. This will be Tampa Bay’s sixth time seeing the right-hander since the start of last season and it’s worth noting that the Rays have been better against righties than lefties this season, averaging 4.5 runs per game against RH starting pitching compared to their 4.2 rpg overall. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid the bullpen matchup as the O’s have one of the best relief corps’ in baseball and bring terrific form into this series having recorded a 2.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s contest). The Rays on the other hand have blown exactly as many saves as they’ve converted on the road this season (nine). Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-25-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 5-7 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Astros had no trouble sweeping aside the previously red hot Mariners in Seattle over the weekend and I look for them to keep it rolling as they head to Oakland to face the lowly A’s on Monday. Jake Odorizzi will get the start for Houston. He’s been quietly effective this season, posting a 3.44 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while giving up 4.31 runs per nine innings. That last number is somewhat concerning but negated by the fact he’ll be facing the light-hitting A’s on Monday. Oakland did find some success at the dish against the Rangers over the weekend but I do think it will find the going a little tougher against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball in the Astros. Adam Oller will get another spot start for the A’s on Monday. To say that he’s off to an awful start to his big league career would be an understatement. Oller has recorded a 7.92 FIP and 1.98 WHIP while yielding a whopping 9.22 runs per nine innings in 27 1/3 innings of work this season. He’s allowing 11.5 hits, 2.6 home runs and a ridiculous 6.3 walks per nine innings. While I do realize we’re talking about a small sample size, those are still alarming numbers. The A’s bullpen will likely be put to work early in this one and while it has held up well recently, it still entered yesterday’s action sporting a 4.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and six blown at home this season. In contrast, the Astros ‘pen converted its 17th road save yesterday (it has blown just six). Houston entered yesterday’s contest with a 3.65 ERA and 1.36 WHIP away from home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (9*). |
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07-24-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Mets | 5-8 | Loss | -190 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Mets in last night's disappointing 2-1 loss - the Padres second consecutive victory to open this series. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Padres with a half-run of insurance in the first five innings (or straight-up on the first five innings moneyline if that's the only line available at your book), as I can certainly make the case for the wrong team being favored - in the first five frames at least. While it's not a complete mismatch, there's no question Joe Musgrove of the Padres holds the edge in tonight's starting pitching matchup against Carlos Carrasco of the Mets. Musgrove has seen his FIP climb just north of 3.00 to 3.09 but he still owns a terrific 0.97 WHIP and yields just under 2.8 runs per nine innings. In comparison to Carrasco, Musgrove gives up 2.8 fewer hits, 0.2 fewer home runs and 0.4 fewer walks per nine innings. Carrasco checks in with a 3.51 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, giving up just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings this season. The Padres have been slightly better in terms of offensive production against right-handed starting pitching and entered last night's action averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road this season (compared to 4.3 rpg overall). I don't want any part of the bullpen matchup in this one as the Padres relief corps entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.64 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games while the Mets 'pen posted a 1.99 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the same stretch. Take San Diego +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-24-22 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners went into the All-Star break as the hottest team in baseball and then their young star Julio Rodriguez put on a show in the Home Run Derby. All was well in Seattle, that is until the Astros rolled into town on Friday. Houston has taken the first two games in this series but I do look for Seattle to give it everything it can handle in Sunday's finale. Framber Valdez will take the ball for the visiting Astros. There's really not a lot negative I can point out when it comes to the All-Star pitcher. It is worth noting that he allows 0.5 more walks and 2.4 fewer strikeouts per nine innings this season compared to his counterpart on Sunday, Mariners left-hander Robbie Ray. You would have to go back three starts to find the last time the Astros won a game by 2+ runs with Valdez on the mound. Robbie Ray checks in with a 3.91 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.6 runs per nine innings this season. His 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings is a big reason for that FIP sitting near 4.00. Note that you would have to go back seven starts to find the last time the Mariners lost a game started by Ray. They're 8-2 in his 10 home starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line this season. You have to go back four starts, all the way to 2016, to find the last time Ray didn't guide his team to victory when starting against the Astros. The later innings could belong to the Mariners in this one, noting that Seattle's bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. The Astros 'pen has been outstanding in its own right, but did enter yesterday's game with an elevated 3.65 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (7*). |
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07-22-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
Interleague first five innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles +0.5 runs first five innings over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Angels own a considerable starting pitching advantage in the opener of this interleague series in Atlanta on Friday. I don’t believe it’s being properly reflected in the ‘first five innings’ line and will take advantage by grabbing the insurance half-run with the visiting Halos. Shohei Ohtani appeared in the All-Star Game as a batter only, allowing him to start this series-opener on Friday. He’s done nothing but impress on the mound again this season, recording a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.27 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing just under 2.5 runs per nine innings. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid an Angels bullpen that has posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just eight saves while blowing six on the road this season. The Braves are in slightly better current form in that department with their relief corps having recorded a 0.88 WHIP over the last seven contests. Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta on Friday. He’s logged a pedestrian 4.20 FIP and 1.25 WHIP this season, yielding 4.55 runs per nine innings along the way. Take Los Angeles +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We have a considerable starting pitching advantage in this game as the Brewers send their ace, Corbin Burnes, to the hill against Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies. We’ll play the first five innings only as the Brewers bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, posting an inflated 7.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. While he did get off to a bit of a rocky start, Burnes has once again rounded into form this season, recording a 2.90 FIP and 0.90 WHIP on the campaign, giving up just 2.45 runs per nine innings. Antonio Senzatela is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a respectable 3.86 FIP but an ugly 1.80 WHIP while allowing a whopping 5.55 runs per nine innings. He’s giving up a ridiculous 14.0 hits per nine frames this season and I expect the Brew Crew to take full advantage. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings. |
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07-21-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I certainly won't make a habit of fading the Dodgers but in this case I'm making an exception as I like the way this one sets up for the streaking Giants - at least early on. San Francisco will have a considerable edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup as it sends left-hander Carlos Rodon to the hill against Mitch White of the Dodgers. Rodon was named to the N.L. All-Star team but didn't pitch after taking the mound last weekend against the Brewers. He took a hard-luck no decision in that contest, allowing only one earned run over five innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. Rodon checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.14 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.74 runs per nine innings. The reason I'm playing the first five innings only here is that the Giants bullpen has struggled, posting a collective 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with just 11 saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Mitch White has posted a 4.25 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, giving up 4.6 runs per nine innings. We have seen White stretched out a little more in terms of pitch count in recent starts and that actually works in our favor here as it likely keeps the terrific Dodgers bullpen out of the picture until after the fifth inning. Note that Los Angeles' relief corps owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven games. I'll grab the half-run as insurance at a reasonable price with the Giants, taking advantage of the fact that line is being offered given I can make a strong case for the Giants being favored in this spot. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-16-22 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros dropped the opener of this series last night but I expect them to have little trouble bouncing back on Saturday. Justin Verlander gets the start for Houston. He's been terrific this season, posting a 3.27 FIP and 0.87 WHIP while allowing only 2.7 runs per nine innings. He obviously holds an advantage over A's left-handed rookie Jared Koenig, who has struggled in limited action, recording a 6.44 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while giving up just shy of 6.4 runs per nine innings. The Astros bullpen entered last night's game sporting a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over its last seven games while the A's relief corps had recorded a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-13-22 | Reds v. Yankees -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. After the Reds staged a stunning ninth inning rally to go from 3-0 down to 4-3 up in an eventual victory last night, it's payback time on Wednesday. The Yankees have now lost three games in a row, suffering through a bit of a pre-All-Star lull. I expect them to bounce back here against Reds journeyman starter Mike Minor. Things haven't gone well for the veteran left-hander in Cincinnati as he has posted a 6.79 FIP and 1.42 WHIP, allowing just shy of 3.0 home runs per nine innings this season. Opponents have reached him for north of 6.6 runs per nine frames. His counterpart on Wednesday will be Luis Severino. It hasn't been a clean road back from injury for the right-hander this season but there have been more ups than downs as he checks in sporting a 3.54 FIP and 1.02 WHIP, limiting opponents to just over 3.2 runs per nine innings while logging 84 innings so far in 2022. While the Yankees bullpen coughed one up last night, they entered that contest with a collective 2.60 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 16 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. In stark contrast, the Reds 'pen entered this series sporting a 5.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP away from home. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | 0-13 | Win | 105 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Arizona at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll go back to the well fading D’Backs starter Dallas Keuchel on Tuesday in San Francisco. Keuchel was cut loose by the White Sox for good reason and checks into Tuesday’s start sporting a 5.19 FIP and 1.95 WHIP while allowing a ridiculous 8.75 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants figure to take advantage as they’re 16-10 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 5.2 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7). Logan Webb has endured a bit of an up-and-down campaign for the Giants but there have undoubtedly been more ups than downs as he checks in with a 3.09 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 in Webb’s previous three career starts against the D’Backs, winning all three of those contests by at least two runs. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid a Giants bullpen that has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 6.62 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over the last seven games. Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -0.5 runs first five innings over St. Louis at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. This is without question a starting pitching mismatch between two rookies that have been going in completely opposite trajectories this season. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has pitched reasonably well in a pair of home starts but the road has been a completely different story. Overall, he checks in sporting a 5.48 FIP and 1.79 WHIP. He's giving up too many hits (11.3 per nine innings), home runs (1.7) and certainly walks (4.8) and not missing nearly enough bats to make up for it (7.8 K's per nine innings). All told, opponents have lit up Liberatore for 5.66 runs per nine innings. Spencer Strider, meanwhile, has quietly put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers in his rookie campaign with the Braves, posting an elite 2.00 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while yielding just under 3.2 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in messing with the bullpen matchup here (as good as Strider has been, he averages just 5.0 innings per start), as the Braves 'pen hasn't been as reliable as the Cards' relief corps, which checks in with a 1.40 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Take Atlanta -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are coming off a late offensive explosion in last night's 16-0 rout of the Pirates while the Red Sox just dropped consecutive games against the Rays. Here, I'll go the contrarian route and grab the insurance run with Boston as it opens this four-game series at Fenway Park. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for New York. He's been pitching well, which is to be expected. It's been a mixed bag for Cole recently in Boston, however, as he's made four starts here since the start of last season and has been tagged for a whopping seven home runs. The long ball has been an issue for Cole again this season as he has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings, including three in his last two starts. If you were to compare numbers between tonight's two starting pitchers you might be surprised that the Red Sox are such an underdog here. While Cole checks in with a 3.42 FIP and 1.01 WHIP and allows right around 3.0 runs per nine innings, Red Sox rookie starter Josh Winckowski has posted a 2.96 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 3.46 runs per nine innings. We're obviously talking about a smaller sample size when it comes to the rookie but I've been impressed by the way he's hung in there and given the Red Sox some quality outings. I mentioned Cole's issues with home runs, Winckowski has been the polar opposite, allowing just one big fly in 26 innings of work this season, despite four of his five starts coming at Fenway Park and Wrigley Field (two hitter-friendly parks). The Yankees bullpen is without question elite - perhaps the best in baseball - but the Red Sox relief corps has battled here at home this season as well, recording a collective 3.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering last night's action). Take Boston +1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. How many more opportunities will we get to fade Nationals starter Josiah Gray? The Nats' were a home favorite in his most recent start against the Marlins and he missed the mark again, yielding six earned runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings. Gray had admittedly been pitching well over a five-start stretch previously but that success wasn't sustainable. He checks in sporting a 4.99 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing north of 4.3 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Gray is an awful Nats' bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games and that's actually an improvement over their season numbers on the road (6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola. He's often the forgotten arm in a solid Phillies starting rotation but he continues to pitch effectively. Nola owns a 2.94 FIP and 0.92 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.21 runs per nine innings. The Philadelphia bullpen remains in terrific form, having posted a sparkling 1.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Angels -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Marlins last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Angels, on the run-line, on Wednesday. Los Angeles is struggling right now having lost four games in a row. After getting blown out in the first two of those four losses they've been close in the last two, dropping two and one-run decisions. Here, I expect them to finally get over the hump with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 2.68 runs per nine innings. He's been lights out over his last few starts in particular, not allowing a single earned run over those three outings. It's been a much different story for Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. He has posted a 4.75 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.0 runs per nine frames this season. While the Marlins do have the advantage in the later innings given their bullpen's recent form, I'm not convinced that's enough to make the difference here. Noting that all but one of the Angels 16 road wins this season have come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Halos on Wednesday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're talking about a smaller sample size innings-wise, there's really no comparison between Dodgers starter Mitch White and German Marquez of the Rockies. White has posted a 3.84 FIP and 1.19 WHIP this season and has had a bit of hard luck in allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. He's allowing 2.5 fewer hits, 0.6 fewer home runs and 0.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to the veteran Marquez this season. Marquez sports a 4.98 FIP and 1.54 WHIP and yields north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. The bullpen comparison is no contest either as the Rockies relief corps has posted a collective 5.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road while the Dodgers 'pen owns a 3.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-02-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the advantage the Angels have with Saturday’s starting pitching matchup as they send Patrick Sandoval to the hill against Jose Urquidy. Sandoval has been quietly impressive, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.05 runs per nine innings. Urquidy has disappointed, posting a 4.83 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while yielding 4.6 runs per nine frames. Note that the Los Angeles bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). The Astros ‘pen is in poor form right now, recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Interleague First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep at home against the Astros but I look for them to rebound on Friday, at least early on, against the Rangers. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. He's had command issues this season and checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing more than five walks per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of 5.5 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Mets starter Chris Bassitt should be happy to face the Rangers - an old A.L. West division rival from his days with the Oakland A's. Bassitt owns a 3.93 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's pitched well lately, allowing only six earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Rangers relief corps has admittedly been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over its last seven games. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-01-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Reds | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. We went against the Braves last night and were rewarded with a 14-4 Phillies victory in the finale of that divisional series. Here, Atlanta will travel to Cincinnati to face the lowly Reds and I look for them to get their frustrations out. Max Fried continues to rate as one of the best pitchers in baseball, checking in with a 2.58 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.86 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be journeyman Mike Minor. He's having a miserable campaign, recording a 7.96 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of around 25 innings. Opponents have reached Minor for north of 7.7 runs per nine innings. The Braves should have the advantage in the later innings as well as Cincinnati's bullpen has been downright awful lately, posting a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games. The Reds have converted only four saves while blowing four at home this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-30-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres snapped their three-game skid yesterday in Arizona and I look for them to at the very least take the Dodgers down to the wire on Thursday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's coming off a rocky outing against the Phillies but that doesn't change the fact that he's firmly planted himself in the N.L. Cy Young award conversation this season, posting a 3.02 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. Despite the Padres recent struggles as a whole, their bullpen has held up well, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Mitch White will counter for Los Angeles. He's certainly been serviceable at the back-end of the Dodgers rotation this season but his numbers don't compare to Musgrove's. White owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.15 WHIP and gives up north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. I'm most concerned with his home run and walk totals as he's been tagged for 1.2 home runs and 3.0 walks per nine innings. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been terrific although it's worth noting that it has blown five saves (while converting 11) at home this season. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-28-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘under’ in Orioles starter Dean Kremer’s most recent outing as he helped his team to a 4-0 victory over the White Sox in Chicago. Here, we’ll grab the insurance run with Kremer and the O’s as they look to get the better of Robbie Ray and the Mariners. Kremer owns an impressive 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP in four starts, spanning 21 innings of work this season (small sample size, I know). Kremer should be pleased to be making a start in Seattle after he turned in one of his best outings of the season here last season, allowing just one earned run over six innings of two-hit ball in a 5-3 victory. Of course, it’s rarely a bad idea grabbing an insurance run with the O’s as they almost always have the advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered this series sporting a 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven contests. Baltimore’s relief corps has posted a 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only one blown on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Robbie Ray has been good but certainly not great in his first season with the Mariners. He checks in with a 4.18 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, allowing just under 4.2 runs per nine innings. The M’s have won just two of Ray’s last 12 starts by 2+ runs. While the Seattle bullpen entered this series with a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home the season it has converted only three saves while blowing four (again, entering last night’s action) here in the Pacific Northwest. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I can’t help but feel Clayton Kershaw has become an undervalued commodity at this stage of his storied career (you might not know it by the moneyline in this game but I believe it could be even higher). We successfully backed Kershaw in his most recent start against the Reds and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as he takes the ball at Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday. Kershaw settled in nicely in his second start since returning from the I.L., holding Cincinnati to one earned run over six innings, and brings a 2.44 FIP and 0.91 WHIP into this contest. Opponents have reached Kershaw for just 2.0 runs per nine innings this season. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He owns a pedestrian 4.14 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. Freeland has allowed 2.9 more hits and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Making the majority of his starts at Coors Field certainly factors in but Freeland has given up just under 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Of course, Los Angeles should have the edge in the later innings in this one as well with a bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies ‘pen entered this series having recorded a 5.49 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-26-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates have certainly been snake-bitten in this series, dropping consecutive games by a single run, one coming in extra innings and the other in walk-off fashion in a game they led 5-3 in the eighth inning yesterday. Here, I don't anticipate the game being as close as the Rays send their ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against rookie Roansy Contreras of the Buccos. McClanahan has firmly planted himself in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation this season, posting a 2.74 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.35 runs per nine innings. The Rays have dropped his last two starts with each of those coming against the best team in baseball, the New York Yankees. Prior to that they had won each of McClanahan's last seven trips to the hill. Contreras is having a fine season by rookie standards. However, I will point out that he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season and in the previous two outings he gave up 11 hits and five earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings of work. Contreras checks in with a 4.11 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, again those are solid numbers, but don't really compare to McClanahan's. Also note that the Rays should continue to have a big advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season. The Pirates 'pen has really struggled, entering yesterday's game with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over its last seven games (and proceeded to cough up the two-run lead in yesterday's loss). Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds got the better of the struggling Giants in the opener of this series last night, taking advantage of a starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie Graham Ashcraft turning in another fine outing. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as San Francisco hands the ball to its ace Logan Webb against Reds struggling veteran right-hander Mike Minor. Webb went through a bit of a rough patch earlier this season but has once again righted the ship and checks in with a 3.05 FIP and 1.16 WHIP, allowing only 3.36 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He faced the Reds once last season, tossing six shutout innings in an eventual 6-3 Giants victory here at Oracle Park. As I mentioned, Reds starter Mike Minor has had a rough go since joining the rotation. He's recorded an ugly 7.33 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in four starts covering 20 2/3 innings of work. Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered last night's game with a collective 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the half-run with the White Sox in the first five innings against the Orioles on Saturday as they look to get back on track after dropping the first two games of this series in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Spenser Watkins gets a spot start for the Orioles. He's made eight previous starts this season and they haven't gone well. Watkins checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. You could argue that we're talking about a fairly small sample size but it's worth noting that Watkins also posted a 6.37 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings of work last season. His counterpart today will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn hasn't pitched well in his first two starts back from injury. With that being said, I think there were positives to take away from his last outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up just four hits over five innings in that contest with the Sox prevailing by an 8-7 score. The White Sox bats have certainly come alive in Lynn's previous two outings, producing a grand total of 17 runs. Lynn faced the Orioles once last year and tossed five shutout innings in an eventual 3-1 victory. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here with the O's 'pen having posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over its last seven games. The Chicago 'pen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season with only nine saves converted compared to eight blown. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates have enjoyed an offensive surge lately, keyed by some top prospect call-ups. While they prevailed by an 8-7 score against the Cubs yesterday, they're just a day removed from a 14-5 loss. I believe the Rays have a significant starting pitching advantage here with Jeffrey Springs taking the ball against Mitch Keller for the Buccos. Springs checks in with a terrific 2.98 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.0 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Keller has managed to string together a number of quality starts but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. Note that he owns a 4.25 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season, giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. While the Rays offense has been somewhat disappointing, particularly at home, the Pirates average just 3.2 runs per game on the road. Also note that the Pittsburgh bullpen has been shaky at best lately, recording a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over their last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-23-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. The Dodgers haven’t been doing Clayton Kershaw any favors since he returned from the I.L., producing only three runs in his last two starts, both resulting in losses. Kershaw does continue to pitch well, having posted a 2.61 FIP and 0.85 WHIP this season. He’ll face a Reds team that had won just seven of 19 games against left-handed starters this season entering last night’s game against fellow lefty Tyler Anderson. Reds starter Hunter Greene is averaging just 5.0 innings per start this season which doesn’t bode well as the Cincinnati bullpen behind him has struggled, recording a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just four saves converted and four blown at home this season (entering last night’s action). Greene himself has had a tough time as well, posting a 5.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He’s allowed 1.7 more home runs and 2.5 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Opponents are averaging 5.4 runs per nine innings against the rookie. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Angels to finally answer back with Shohei Ohtani on the mound on Wednesday. Ohtani barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, allowing just three hits over six innings of shutout ball in Seattle. The Angels have now won each of Ohtani's last two starts and all five of their victories with him on the hill this season have come by at least three runs. Shohei enters Wednesday's start sporting a terrific 3.09 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. His counterpart on Wednesday will be left hander Daniel Lynch. He was terrific in his most recent start but that came against the light-hitting A's in Oakland. Note that he will be pitching on just four days' rest here after notching a season-high 10 strikeouts in that five-inning effort in Oakland. Lynch checks in with a 4.50 FIP and 1.53 WHIP this season. Despite shining in his most recent start, Lynch has allowed north of 5.3 runs per nine innings this season. While last night's game was a wild, high-scoring affair, the Angels bullpen continues to hold up better than expected - at least recently - posting a collective 3.37 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over their last seven contests. The Royals 'pen has been terrific lately as well, but is nothing to write home about on the road, where it has recorded a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (6*). |
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06-17-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Phillies last night as they trounced the Nationals in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Friday afternoon in Game 1 of the day-night double-header. Ranger Suarez will take the ball for Philadelphia. His numbers certainly don't jump off the page this season, but they're far superior to those of Nationals starter Joan Adon, who inexplicably remains in the rotation despite a 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Suarez checks in with a sub-4.00 career FIP with that number sitting at 4.17 this season. Again, his numbers don't really pop but Adon has allowed north of 10 hits and just shy of six walks, not to mention 7.3 runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now the Phillies are locked in at the plate, entering last night's game hitting .285 as a team over the last week. They also entered last night's action averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road while the Nats average just 3.7 runs per contest at home. While the Phillies bullpen is always a concern, I expect them to do enough offensively that it won't matter on Friday afternoon. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays have taken two of the first three games in this series after an extra innings victory last night. While Kevin Gausman dealt with possible pitch-tipping against the Twins a couple of starts back, he settled right back in against the Tigers last time out. He has posted a ridiculous 1.76 FIP this season, indicating his 5-5 win-loss record doesn't tell the whole story. While Gausman has yielded north of nine hits per nine innings, he's made up for it by limiting opponents to 1.3 walks and striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine frames. Tyler Wells has held his own for the Orioles but his numbers pale in comparison to those of the veteran Gausman. While the O's have managed to take one game already in this series and generally prove to be a 'tough out', I expect the Blue Jays to build off last night's walk-off win with a convincing series-clinching victory on Thursday. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-14-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not sure Max Fried gets nearly enough credit as he's clearly one of the best starting pitchers in baseball and has been for a number of years. We've seen more of the same from Fried this season as he has recorded an impressive 2.90 FIP and 1.04 WHIP, not to mention a near 6-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Meanwhile, the Nationals are forced to turn to Jackson Tetreault on short notice after Stephen Strasburg landed back in the I.L. Tetreault has posted a 4.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 58 innings of work at the AAA level this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio sits just north of 2-1 and that's against AAA hitters. While the Braves bullpen owns an edge over the Nationals relief corps at the best of times, here we find Washington's 'pen overworked, having logged north of 30 innings over their last seven games. Even if Atlanta can't break it open early, I'm confident they will late. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-12-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is off to a terrific start this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings of work. Of course, he's been able to pitch comfortably in both of those outings as his team's bats absolutely exploded, putting up 14 runs against Colorado and 12 runs against Washington. I expect a much different story to unfold today as the Marlins go up against Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander hardly pitched over the last two seasons but has come back strong here in 2022, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. The Astros check in 7-1 over his last eight outings, winning four of those games by at least two runs, including a 4-1 victory over Seattle earlier this week - a game in which Verlander allowed only one earned run while striking out a season-high 12 in seven innings. Here, we'll note that the Marlins are a woeful 1-10 when coming off five consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that situation. After dropping the first two games in this series we'll look for the Astros to bounce back big on Sunday. Take Houston -1.5 (10*). |
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06-11-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have had a miserable week so far but I look for them to bounce back from Friday's loss on Saturday afternoon against Miami. Framber Valdez has arguably been the Astros most reliable starter this season, going 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Braxton Garrett has made just one start for the Marlins this season but his career numbers aren't all that encouraging. In 45 career big league innings he has posted a 5.19 FIP, allowing 11 hits and 5.2 walks per nine innings. While his strikeout numbers are there, he's not likely going to get a loaded Astros lineup chasing too often on Saturday. We'll lay the extra run with Houston here, noting that it has won each of Valdez's last five starts by multiple runs. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-10-22 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockies barely broke a sweat in taking two of three games from the slumping Giants in San Francisco. I suspect they'll find the going much tougher as they head to San Diego on Friday. Credit Chad Kuhl for holding up well for the Rockies after coming over from the Pirates in the offseason. It's not easy to go from making the majority of your starts at pitcher-friendly PNC Park in Pittsburgh to hitter's paradise Coors Field in Denver. He's not at the same level as Padres starter Joe Musgrove though, who belongs firmly in the N.L. Cy Young conversation based on early returns this season. While Kuhl has posted a 3.94 FIP, Musgrove checks in with a 2.76. Musgrove averages 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings while striking out 1.9 strikeouts more. That's not to mention the fact that Musgrove is giving up just 0.5 home runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now hitting appears to be a mismatch as well as the Padres have been absolutely raking lately, plating 42 runs in their last six games including 25 in taking two of three from the Mets here at Petco Park earlier this week. As I mentioned, the Rockies bats weren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball in San Francisco, they simply outlasted a Giants offense that simply isn't producing right now. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-08-22 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm surprised we're seeing the Brewers in an underdog role here but perhaps shouldn't be as the Phillies have reeled off five consecutive victories while Milwaukee checks in riding a four-game skid. I'll take advantage of the opportunity to grab an insurance run at what I consider to be a reasonable price with the home side on Wednesday. Note that Philadelphia is a miserable 8-20 when playing on the road after winning five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 run on average in that situation. They're also just 20-37 after giving up two runs or less in their previous game over the same stretch, outscored by 1.2 runs on average in that spot. The Brewers seemingly have the right pitcher on the mound to stop their skid, noting they've gone 9-1 in Adrian Houser's last 10 starts in an underdog role. Meanwhile, the Phillies are just 7-15 the last 22 times Aaron Nola takes the ball following a victory in their previous game. Take Milwaukee +1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-25-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Guardians in Cal Quantrill's most recent start but probably deserved better as they led early and Quantrill did his part, pitching seven solid innings in an eventual 4-2 loss to the Reds. Quantrill has now worked at least six innings in five straight starts and owns a sub-1.20 WHIP on the season. He pitched reasonably well in his lone outing against the Astros last season, also working into the sixth inning and giving up only three earned runs in a tight 4-3 loss. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. The Astros are just 5-7 against the -1.5 run-line in his 12 career home starts. He had his best stuff working in his most recent start but it still wasn't enough to secure a victory as the 'Stros fell by a 3-0 score at home against the Rangers. For the season, Javier owns a rather pedestrian 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The bullpens are a virtual wash between these two teams on the season. I do like the fact that the Guardians had an off day last Saturday (due to a rain-out) while the Astros haven't been idle since May 9th. They'll certainly have one eye on tomorrow's off-day. Note that Houston hasn't managed to win consecutive games against the Guardians by 2+ runs over the course of the last seven meetings with Cleveland going 5-2 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line over that stretch. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-22-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-8 | Loss | -167 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Mariners yesterday but certainly deserved a better fate as they built an early 5-0 lead but couldn't make it stand up in a 6-5 defeat. Yesterday's starter Chris Flexen disappointed once again but I don't expect the same from Logan Gilbert on Sunday. Gilbert has been brilliant for the Mariners so far this season, recording a 2.60 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in eight starts. Better still, he's posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five road outings. It's a much different story for Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi. He has seemingly come down with a case of the 'yips', allowing a whopping 14 home runs in 41 2/3 innings of work this season, including five in his most recent start against Houston. While the Mariners have lost three straight games here in Boston they have managed to plate 14 runs and they have to be salivating at the prospect of facing the struggling Eovaldi here, especially considering they reached him for four earned runs over five innings in an 8-2 victory here at Fenway Park last season. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (6*). |
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05-17-22 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 128 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees rolled to another lopsided victory last night - not unexpected as they opened this series against the reeling Orioles. Here, I do like the spot for the O's, however, as they get their third look at Jameson Taillon this season and noting that they've held their own and then some at home this season, going 9-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 runs per game. Interestingly, the Yankees check in just 21-28 when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Also note that the O's fall into a situation where we back a team coming off three consecutive games with five or less hits but with a bullpen that has recorded a collective WHIP of less than 1.00 over their last five games. That situation has cashed at an impressive 37-14 clip over the last five seasons and is already 3-0 this year. While tonight's starter for Baltimore, Spenser Watkins, doesn't exactly instill a great deal of confidence, the O's have managed to win two of his three home starts this season with the lone loss coming by a single run. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-16-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves let one get away against the Padres yesterday, eventually falling by a 7-3 score in extra innings. Atlanta's last winning series came last weekend against the Brewers and I look for it to get this return match in Milwaukee off to a positive start as well. Note that Atlanta checks in 31-13 when coming off a loss by 4+ runs over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Brewers are just 29-32, outscored by 0.6 runs on average, when playing at home after winning two of their last three games, which is the case here following a series win in Miami. Additionally, Atlanta has bounced back nicely following gut-wrenching losses, noting that it has allowed just 2.9 runs per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.0 run when playing on the road after a game in which it blew a save over the last three seasons (18-game sample size), which is the situation here. Ian Anderson owns a 2-0 team record in two career outings against the Brewers while Freddy Peralta has recorded an even 2-2 team record in four career starts against Atlanta (both wins came by a single run so 0-4 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line). Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-16-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 3-6 | Loss | -180 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a tight contest between the Astros and Red Sox on Monday as they renew acquaintances following last October's playoff series (which went Houston's way in six games). Here, we'll note that the Red Sox are just 8-14 when coming off a game in which they scored two runs or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.8 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Astros have actually managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.1 runs when priced as a road underdog between +100 and +150 over the same stretch (24-game sample size). While Boston has turned things around to a certain extent having won three of its last five games, Houston is in another stratosphere right now, having gone 11-2 while outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs per game so far in May. Astros starter Jake Odorizzi brings excellent form into this one having allowed just one earned run on six hits in 17 2/3 innings of work over his last three outings. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock got off to a solid start this season but has since faded, allowing five earned runs in just eight innings over his last two outings. Take Houston +1.5 runs (4*). |
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05-11-22 | A's +1.5 v. Tigers | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken two of the first three games in this unique five-game series and I look for them to give the slumping Tigers all they can handle again on Wednesday. Note that Oakland is 26-11 when playing on the road against left-handed starting pitching over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. They're also 13-3 when playing on the road after being held to four runs or less in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average. While the Oakland offense has been struggling, the Tigers have been even worse in that regard, scoring two runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (3*). |
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05-10-22 | Phillies v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed badly with Seattle last night but did win with the 'over' in its 9-0 drubbing at the hands of the Phillies. I won't hesitate to come back with the Mariners again here, however, this time grabbing the insurance run as well. Note that Philadelphia is still a money-burning 18-28 in its last 46 Interleague games. It also checks in a woeful 7-18 when coming off a game in which it allowed one run or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. For his part, tonight's starter Aaron Nola has posted a 7-17 team record in his last 24 nighttime outings. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 51-36 when priced between +125 and -125, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring opponents by 0.3 runs on average in that spot. They're also a profitable 29-23 after plating four runs or less in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 runs in that situation. Tonight's starter, Robbie Ray has averaged over six innings per start this season and has posted a terrific 1.02 WHIP in three home outings. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (5*). |
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05-10-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Braves | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox have been a train-wreck this season, relatively-speaking, but I look for them to give the Braves all they can handle in Atlanta on Tuesday. Note that the Braves are just 4-10 when coming off a win this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. While the Red Sox are mired in a five-game losing streak at the moment, they've still outscored opponents by 2.3 runs on average when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Perhaps Atlanta is the right team to turn it around against, or at least from the right division; the Red Sox are 16-4 in their last 20 games against N.L. East opponents, averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 runs in those matchups. The Braves on the other hand are just 15-20 after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox here, largely due to their bullpen, which has already blown five saves this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (3*). |
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05-09-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Orioles | 1-6 | Loss | -180 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Baltimore at 12:05 pm et on Monday. Interestingly, each of the Orioles last four wins have come by at least two runs. I don't believe that's a sustainable trend, especially here at home where runs have come at a premium due to the new field dimensions at Camden Yards. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 19-14 when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The O's meanwhile are just 3-11 in their last 14 games when priced as a favorite of -110 or higher, which is also the situation here, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. Additionally, Baltimore is a woeful 18-53 in afternoon games over the same stretch, allowing 6.0 runs per game while being outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (3*). |
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05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. Runs will likely come at a premium in this matchup as the Brewers send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. With that in mind, I'm comfortable laying the juice to grab the insurance run with Atlanta at home. Milwaukee comes in having won four games in a row - with all four of those victories coming by multiple runs. That matches a season-long streak for 2+ run wins. I expect it to end here, noting that Atlanta checks in 32-13 when coming off four or five losses in its last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (4*). |
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05-05-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While the Rays enter this series 'fat and happy' following a three-game sweep of the A's in Oakland, culminating with yesterday's 3-0 shutout victory, the Mariners enter hungry off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros in Houston. Nothing went Seattle's way in that series in Houston. Needless to say it will be happy to be back home on Thursday. As if the Mariners needed any more motivation, they'll also be looking to avenge a series loss suffered on the road against the Rays in April. They actually outscored Tampa Bay 11-9 over the course of that three-game set. There's not a lot to choose as far as the starting pitching matchup goes tonight with Shane McClanahan taking the ball for the Rays against Robbie Ray of the Mariners. I do think that Ray was brought in precisely for situations like this where Seattle needs a pick-me-up and it's worth noting that Ray has guided the M's to victory in each of his previous two home starts this season recording a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 innings of work. With the the bullpens virtually a wash as well, we'll grab the insurance run with the Mariners in what projects to be a tightly-contested affair. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (3*). |
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04-28-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. This series hasn't gone well for the Guardians. In fact, the last week hasn't gone well for the Guardians as they've gone winless through six games in New York and Anaheim. I will back them here, however, as they check in 22-12 when coming off a loss by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Also note that the Angels are 14-22 when coming off a victory by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscored by 1.0 run on average in that situation. Cleveland averages 6.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, which is what they'll be up against on Thursday as Reid Detmers gets the call for the Angels. Detmers faced Cleveland once last season and didn't make it through the fourth inning, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and three walks in an eventual 5-1 loss. Meanwhile, Guardians starter Cal Quantrill is off to a solid start this season having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 16 innings of work. He faced the Angels once last season and that start was a good one as he tossed seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. While I gave the Guardians bullpen the edge entering this series, I'm willing to admit the two relief corps' are virtually a 'wash' at this point. I'm comfortable grabbing the insurance run with the Guardians at a reasonable price here. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). |
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04-27-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians are reeling right now, losers of five straight games including the first two in this series. They'll have arguably their best starter in the early going this season on the hill tonight though in Zach Plesac. He has posted a 1.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in all three of those outings. His opposing starter will be Shohei Ohtani and as usual he appears to be overvalued here, noting that the Angels have actually lost two of his first three starts this season. Note that Ohtani faced the Guardians just once last season, his only previous start against them, with the Halos losing that game by a 3-2 score here in Anaheim. While the Angels bullpen has held up well lately, I'm still not buying its long-term sustainability, noting that it still owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with four saves converted but also three blown here at home this season. For its part, the Guardians 'pen has yet to record a save on the road while blowing two opportunities, however that relief corps has recorded a collective 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over its last seven games and I am willing to buy in as far as it keeping this game tight at the very least on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the Guardians are 21-8 after being held to one run or less in their previous game going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 runs. The Angels on the other hand are 3-14 when playing at home after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that spot. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-26-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Miami at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins are coming off an impressive series win in Atlanta over the weekend. They probably would have liked to have gotten right back out there yesterday but instead had a day off before opening this series in Washington. The Nationals, meanwhile, likely welcomed the off day following a series sweep at the hands of the Giants, at home no less. The Nats have now lost five games in a row but I look for them to punch back on Tuesday. Josiah Gray gets the start for Washington. He's arguably been their best starter so far this season, particularly over his last two outings as he allowed just four hits and one earned run in 10 1/3 innings in victories over the Braves and D'Backs. He turned in two solid outings against the Marlins last season, allowing four earned runs in 12 innings with the Nats' going 2-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Sandy Alcantara has also pitched well for Miami. However, he's been much better in his two home outings than he was in his lone trip to the hill on the road. The Marlins have won just twice in his eight career starts against Washington. We'll use the +1.5 run-line to our advantage here, noting that Miami is averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. If there's one area where the Nats' have an advantage and should help them keep this one tight at the very least, it's the bullpen. Washington's 'pen has posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over its last seven games. The Nats' relief corps has recorded two saves with none blown at home this season. Take Washington +1.5 runs (6*). |
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04-22-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I don't think there's much at all separating these two clubs right now yet we're being offered to back the Guardians with an insurance run at a near pk'em price on Friday. We'll gladly take advantage. Cleveland comes in off an impressive three-game series sweep of the White Sox. The Guardians have hit well so far this season, averaging 5.7 runs per game while batting a collective .278. That's certainly more than can be said of the Yankees, who check in hitting a miserable .220 and averaging just 3.0 runs per contest. There's little to choose between tonight's two starting pitchers. Eli Morgan will make his first start of the season for the Guardians. He should bring some confidence having pitched here at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing only one earned run over six innings in an 11-1 victory. Jameson Taillon's lone outing against Cleveland last season didn't go so well as he was lit up for four earned runs in just four innings in a 7-3 loss. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season. While the Yanks 'pen has posted a terrific 2.97 ERA over its last seven games, we have started to see some cracks as evidenced by its 1.62 WHIP over that stretch. By contrast, the Guardians relief corps has posted a sparkling 0.93 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over New York at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night by a 4-2 score. They actually haven't won consecutive games since opening the season with back-to-back wins over the Red Sox. I expect them to have their hands full with the Tigers here. While Luis Severino certainly has the better numbers of tonight's two starters this season but of course we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. I don't believe there's all that much separating the two pitchers. Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has faced the Yankees plenty over the course of his career (remember he came over from the Red Sox). He posted a 4-1 team record in five starts against New York last season, allowing just eight earned runs in 23 innings. I think he's catching the Yankees bats at the right time, noting that they've scored more than four runs just twice in 11 games this season. They check in hitting a collective .187 and averaging 2.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Both bullpens have been terrific in the early going this season with the Yanks relief corps having posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and Detroit's 'pen recording a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Wednesday. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-17-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. West Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers opened this series with a big win on Thursday but have proceeded to drop the last two games with their pitching failing them. Here, I look for Texas to bounce back, noting that the Angels have gone 12-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscored by 1.3 runs on average along the way. Meanwhile, Texas has gone 15-8 when playing at home off a loss by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 0.2 runs on average. There's little to separate the two starters today with Jose Suarez taking the ball for the Angels against Rangers veteran Martin Perez. The same goes for the two bullpens as both have struggled in the early going this season. It's been a number of years since the Angels last reeled off three straight wins over the Rangers by 2+ runs. Look for Texas to bounce back here. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Rays on the run-line last night but they still dropped their third game in a row. I look for them to give the White Sox all they can handle on Saturday afternoon as they look to finally end their skid. Note that the Rays are 18-6 when coming off four or five losses in their last six games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that situation. They're also a profitable 30-22 as a road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.5 runs. Both pitching staffs are relatively even heading into this contest - starters and bullpen - and I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Rays here. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-15-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Friday. It's been the 'same old Angels' for the most part so far this season with Mike Trout brilliant as usual but the rest of the team lagging considerably behind. We won with the Rangers on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play here. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash in this one but I'll give the hitting edge to the Rangers here at Globe Life Field, not to mention the slight bullpen advantage with the Halos' relief corps having posted a collective 6.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 30 innings of work so far this season. As I noted yesterday, the Angels have struggled as a small favorite in recent years, now 28-40 when priced at -150 or lower over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. Take Texas +1.5 runs (3*). |
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04-15-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In a game where I expect runs to come at a premium, I'll back the Rays with the insurance run as they look to bounce back from an awful home series against the Rays. The White Sox sputtered in the finale of their three-game set against the Mariners, dropping a 5-1 decision yesterday afternoon. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the White Sox offense in the early going this season and I expect them to have their hands full with the Rays pitching staff led by starter Drew Rasmussen on Friday. Rasmussen didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but he still managed to give up only two earned runs over four innings in a victory over the Orioles. He's catching the White Sox offense at the right time in unfriendly early season hitting conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday. Note that the Rays bullpen, while overworked in the early going this season, has held up well, posting a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (3*). |
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04-14-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I think there's a bit of a 'Shohei-effect' at play here as the Angels open a four-game series in Texas on Thursday. Ohtani pitched well but lasted only 4 2/3 innings in his season debut. Interestingly, we've seen the Angels outscored by an average of 0.8 runs in his 12 starts against A.L. West opponents going back to last season. While Los Angeles enters this game off consecutive wins, it has topped out at six runs through six games this season, going 2-4 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Here, the Angels will face the Rangers as a road favorite, noting that they've gone just 28-39 when checking in as a favorite of -150 or less over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 runs in that situation. Bettors are down on the Rangers after they dropped a series in Toronto and then proceeded to get swept in a brief two-game set at home against the Rockies. I look for a strong performance from starter Dane Dunning here, however. He struggled in his season debut but those are precisely the type of starters (with a proven track record) that we like to back in their second outing. While the Rangers bullpen hasn't been great, it has posted a 4.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which is considerably better than that of the Angels relief corps, which checks in sporting a 6.31 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take Texas +1.5 runs (5*). |
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04-13-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Chicago at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think there's as much separating these two teams as their early records would indicate. Chicago has won three of its first four games, including last night's 2-1 decision, while Pittsburgh has dropped three of its first four contests. Today's pitching matchup couldn't be any more of a 'wash' with Kyle Hendricks going for the Cubs and Zach Thompson finally making his first start for the Pirates (he was in line to start on Monday before the rain-out in St. Louis). It's been pretty much 'even Steven' as far as the bullpens go so far this season as well with the Cubs posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and the Buccos 'pen checking in with a 4.58 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. We've seen eight matchups between these two teams going back to the start of last September. The Cubs won just two of those games by more than a single run. Going back further, the Pirates are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-12-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Angels | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the starting pitching matchup virtually a wash and the Marlins looking to salvage one game from this quick two-game set in Anaheim, I'll back Miami with an insurance run on Tuesday. Note that the Marlins check in 45-38 after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.1 runs on average in that spot. Better still, they're 20-11 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games going back to the start of last season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 runs on average along the way. On the flip side, the Angels are just 11-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, as is the case here off last night's 6-2 victory, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. While it's still very early, the Marlins bullpen has been solid, posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 15 innings while the Los Angeles 'pen has recorded a 6.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (6*). |
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04-08-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Red Sox plus the insurance run as they get their season started a day later than expected at Yankee Stadium on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Red Sox check in 50-31 in their last 81 road games against right-handed starters, averaging 5.1 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Yankees went just 5-8 with ace Gerrit Cole starting as a favorite priced between -150 and -200 going back to last season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.3 runs on average in that spot. Worse still, the Yanks have won just three times in Cole's last 11 daytime outings, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 runs along the way. Take Boston +1.5 runs (6*). |
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11-02-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Braves with an insurance run in our back pocket as they hand the ball to Max Fried in hopes of making good in their second attempt at clinching a World Series title. Fried didn't pitch well in his first start in this series but I'm confident that he can bounce back strong here, noting that he still owns a terrific 3.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road this season and better still, a 3.49 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nighttime starts. The Braves are a terrific 64-41 when coming off a loss going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 runs along the way. We haven't seen the Braves drop consecutive games since a four-game losing streak from September 14th to 18th. To find the last time they lost back-to-back games by two or more runs you would have to go all the way back to June 23rd and 24th. Atlanta wasn't quite able to break through against Astros starter Luis Garcia back in Game 3 of this series but it's not as if he was dominant. Garcia lasted only 3 2/3 innings, allowing three hits and four walks but only one earned run. While Sunday's game ended up lopsided in nature, I'm expecting tightly-contested baseball from here on out, making grabbing the insurance run attractive in Game 6. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros stunned the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night - ruining our 'under' ticket in the process - and I look for them to build off of that victory on Wednesday. With struggling veteran Chris Sale taking the ball for Boston, I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this game. Sale has made two starts in the playoffs. In his first he gave up five earned runs in just an inning of work against the Rays. Earlier in this series against the Astros he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out only two in an eventual 5-4 loss. Astros starter Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well in the postseason either but he's faced the Red Sox three times this season and Houston won all three games, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start here at Fenway Park (he worked into the eighth inning and allowed just one earned run in that outing). Here, I'll note that the Red Sox are just 33-42 when playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They're a mediocre 65-66 after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons - also the case here - not holding a scoring edge whatsoever in that situation. Finally, I'll point out that the Red Sox bullpen has taken a real sour turn, having blown four saves without converting a single one over their last seven games. Take Houston +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-10-21 | Rays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This line isn't likely to last long as the Rays may very well flip to the favorite here on Sunday. While it's available, we'll take advantage, however (it should still be available as an alternate run-line regardless). Note that Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has delivered wins in each of his last two starts, with both of those victories coming by two runs or more. He's only managed to post a three-game streak of that nature once this season, and that came in a stretch that saw him face the lowly Rangers and Indians (twice). Note that Boston is just 14-20 after winning four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 runs in that spot. The Rays have feasted in day games this season, going 41-20 and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 runs. They're also 52-26 against division opponents, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 runs on average. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). |
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10-08-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 4:35 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with the Braves in this NLDS opener on Friday afternoon. Atlanta checks in a solid 29-15 over its last 44 road games, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. Here, the Braves are also in a favorable situation that has gone 23-7 over the last two seasons as they revenge a loss against an opponent in which they scored one run or less, outscoring opponents by a whopping 3.4 runs on average in that spot. Braves starter Charlie Morton has faced the Brewers just once over the last five seasons, but that start came back in August as he allowed only two earned runs over six innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Corbin Burnes turned in an outstanding regular season but his lone start against Atlanta didn't go well at all as he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only four innings. Interestingly, the Brewers bullpen has struggled in day games all season, recording a collective 5.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only 20 saves converted compared to 16 blown. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This precise situation is essentially the reason the Dodgers brought in Max Scherzer prior to the trade deadline and I certainly understand why they're such a heavy favorite in this contest. But given how well the Cardinals played down the stretch I certainly don't expect to see them back down from the massive challenge at hand on Wednesday. While I won't call for the outright upset, I will back the Cards with an insurance run at a very reasonable price. Note that the Dodgers enter this game having won five consecutive contests by two runs or more. Their longest such streak this season was six games - a feat they accomplished only once, back in early April. Also consider that Los Angeles checks in 15-19 after posting consecutive wins by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.4 runs in that situation. As for the Cards, they're a solid 13-6 when playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.7 runs on average in that spot. The Dodgers have won each of Max Scherzer's last five starts by two runs or more - the longest such streak of the season for Mad Max. His previous high was four straight team wins by two runs or more, which was followed up by a narrow 4-3 win over the Mets in his next start back on August 21st. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Indians v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up well for the Rangers with the Indians coming in off consecutive wins. Note that Texas hasn't dropped consecutive games since a five-game losing streak from September 19th-23rd. The Indians check in a woeful 4-16 after scoring nine runs or more in a game this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 9-2 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent where that team scored eight runs or more over the last three seasons, which is also the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Indians starter Triston McKenzie had a nice run but he's struggled over his last couple of outings, allowing 10 earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings. Take Texas +1.5 runs (7*). |
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09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over New York at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point and both are playing poorly with each entering riding five-game losing streaks. Something obviously has to give in this one. I'll grab the insurance run with the Marlins as the spot sets up well for them in the front half of this seven-inning double-header. Note that Miami has gone an impressive 17-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. While the Marlins sit a whopping 27 games under .500 on the season, they've actually gone 32-31 after losing four or five of their last six games, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. As for the Mets, they're a woeful 1-9 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent having scored two runs or less in those losses, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. Marcus Stroman will get the start for New York. Note that he owns a 2-7 team record the last nine times he's pitched as a home favorite priced between -150 and -200, as is the case here, with his teams outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He has posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. While the Marlins are just 4-10 in his last 14 starts overall, they've gone 8-6 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Miami has won all three of Rogers' previous starts against the Mets, despite the fact that he was matched up against New York ace Jacob DeGrom twice. Stroman has faced the Marlins three times this season and the Mets failed to deliver a win by more than a single run in any of those contests. Take Miami +1.5 runs. |
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09-24-21 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners are rolling right now, having won five consecutive games to claw back into the A.L. Wild Card hunt, currently sitting two games back of the New York Yankees, who hold down the second spot. Interestingly, this is the first time all season that Seattle checks in having won four of its last five games by multiple runs. I don't expect it to continue tonight in Anaheim. The Angels snapped a six-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Astros yesterday. Note that they're 12-6 after losing six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. While the Mariners do check in six games over .500 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 runs in those games. They've been outscored by 0.5 runs on average after winning four or five of their last six games this season. Over the last three seasons, Seattle has been outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs, allowing 6.2 runs per game in the process, after posting four or more consecutive victories. The Mariners are 14-8 when rookie starter Logan Gilbert takes the ball this season. However, when factoring in the -1.5 run-line, they've gone just 6-16. Meanwhile, Angels starter Jose Suarez hasn't posted great overall numbers this season but there's reason for confidence backing him here, noting that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts and sports a 2.21 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three outings. Los Angeles has won three of his last four starts overall, outscoring the opposition by a combined 19-8 margin in those games. It has also won three of his four career starts against the Mariners, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start against them this season. All told, the Halos have outscored the M's by a combined margin of 29-16 in Suarez's four career outings against them. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). |
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09-19-21 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. In a game that projects to be relatively low-scoring with a total of just 7.5 runs, we'll grab the insurance run with the Tigers at a plus-money return. Detroit dropped the first two games of this series but responded with a 4-3 victory in yesterday's game. That actually puts the Rays in a poor spot here, noting that Tampa Bay has gone 7-14 when coming off a one-run loss this season, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Tigers check in a highly-profitable 10-8 when playing on the road after scoring four runs or less in five consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 runs. Rays starter Shane McClanahan is no sure thing here at home, where he averages less than five innings per start and has posted a 1.38 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings of work this season. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Wily Peralta has posted a 1.28 WHIP in 46 innings pitched on the road this season and has allowed only five earned runs over his last 20 innings of work, covering a span of four starts. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (5*). |
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09-14-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 3:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to lay significant juice to get the insurance run with the Indians here, I believe the price is warranted. Note that the Indians enter this series on the heels of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers. They haven't lost four games in a row since back in the first week of July. Only once previously this season have they lost four consecutive games by more than a run - something they'll be looking to avoid here. Note that the Indians are 15-3 when coming off a game in which they scored one run or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that spot. They're also 11-3 when coming off a loss by six runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Twins were involved in a make-up game at Yankee Stadium yesterday, blowing a late 5-0 lead in an eventual 6-5 extra innings defeat. They're just 35-41 as a favorite this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 runs. When coming off three losses in their last four games this season, they check in 16-32, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. Twins rookie starter Joe Ryan flirted with a perfect game against the Indians just last week. Here, I expect Cleveland to do a better job of getting to the rookie in their second look. Indians starter Triston McKenzie has been their most reliable starter over the last month or so and checks in with a sparkling 1.42 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over his last three starts and a 1.12 WHIP in 11 road outings this season. Of course, grabbing the insurance run becomes even more helpful when you consider this is only a seven-inning game (the first half of a double-header). Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). |
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09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair as these two teams battle for American League Wild Card positioning in Monday's series-opener in Seattle. The Mariners of course suffered a major blow to their chances by dropping a pair of games against the lowly D'Backs over the weekend. They're by no means out of the race, however, as they sit just three games back of the second Wild Card spot. Note that the Red Sox have actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 runs over their last 33 road games. Meanwhile, the Mariners check in 20-15 after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 runs in that situation. The Red Sox are just 37-48 after scoring two runs or less in their last game over the last three seasons. While they have outscored opponents on average in that spot, it has been by the slimmest of margins, just 0.1 runs. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been as uneven as it gets this season, and particularly of late, allowing 14 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four starts. Mariners rookie Logan Gilbert went through a miserable three-start stretch in late-August but has since turned things around, allowing just two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two outings with the Mariners splitting those two games - the lone loss came by a single run. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the M's are an incredible 16-2 in Gilbert's last 18 starts overall. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | 6-4 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. The Braves took the opener of this series with relative ease last night, cruising to a 6-2 victory. I'm expecting a tighter game on Saturday, however. Note that the Marlins have actually held opponents to just 2.6 runs on average, outscoring them by an average margin of 0.2 runs in 10 previous situations where they've been seeking triple-revenge this season, as is the case here. The Marlins are also a solid 15-7 when coming off three straight games in which they scored three runs or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. Meanwhile, the Braves are 20-23 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs in that situation. They're also just 18-22 when playing at home off a win, outscored by 0.4 runs on average in that spot. While Atlanta appears to have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup tonight, it's worth noting that Miami starter Elieser Hernandez has pitched well in limited work this season, recording a 1.03 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-08-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Nats may simply be playing out the string at this point but it's not as if they've quit on the season. That was evident in last night's wild 8-5 loss as they rallied back from a late 5-1 deficit only to eventually fall by a three-run margin. Here, we're being offered a generous price to back the Nats with an insurance run in our pockets. Note that the Braves are just 20-27 after scoring eight runs or more in a game over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs in that spot. They're also just 17-21 at home off a win this season, outscored by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. For whatever reason, the Nats have been outstanding on the road in Wednesday games this season, averaging a whopping 7.9 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 3.4 runs on average while reeling off seven wins in eight games. Also note that the Nats have outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing on the road with double revenge, as is the case here. There's no real edge in terms of starting pitching in this one while the Braves bullpen has converted just 13 saves while blowing 13 as well here at home. Take Washington +1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-07-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 150 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The price is simply too good to pass up as we're being given an insurance run with the Angels at a plus-money return on Tuesday. Note that while Blake Snell has been terrific for the Padres lately, he checks in sporting a 7-13 team record after allowing two earned runs or less in consecutive starts over the last three seasons with his teams outscored by 0.9 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Angels enter this game having gone a perfect 7-0 after scoring four runs or less in five straight games this season, averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 runs in that spot. Despite their overall losing record, the Halos are also 25-18 after scoring two runs or less in a game this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.3 runs on average in that situation. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). |
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09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Brewers were in line for a letdown yesterday after a wild come-from-behind walk-off win on Sunday and that's precisely what happened as they had their doors blown off by the Phillies. Now they're set up well to bounce back and we're being afforded the opportunity to back them with a one-run cushion at a reasonable price. Note that Philadelphia is just 12-22 after allowing two runs or less in a game this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs in that spot. The Phillies are 29-44 after winning a game by four runs or more over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs. Also note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 7.3 runs on average and has been outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs after allowing four runs or less in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. You would have to go back six starts to find the last time Phillies starter Aaron Nola was on the mound for a victory by more than a single run. He hasn't guided Philadelphia to a win by multiple runs here in Milwaukee since his first career outing here back in 2016. Take Milwaukee +1.5 runs (7*). |
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09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Rangers after they dropped the first two games in this series. Note that as bad as things have gone for the Rangers, particularly on the road, they haven't lost three consecutive games against an opponent away from home since back on August 6th-8th against Oakland. The A's are obviously in a class above today's opponent, the Angels. You would have to go back to July 2nd-4th to find the last time the Angels recorded three straight home wins against an opponent - those coming against the Orioles. Here, we find Los Angeles having gone 3-10, outscored by 1.9 runs on average, when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed two runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Angels have received solid outings from their starting pitchers so far in this series but this is probably a bullpen game for them with Janson Junk making his big league debut. The Angels 'pen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season and checks in overworked having logged a whopping 32 innings over their last seven games. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way the Yankees are set up to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss here in Anaheim on Tuesday. In fact, New York has dropped three games in a row following an extended winning streak. Don't expect the Yanks losing ways to continue here as they look to tee off on Anaheim starter Jaime Barria. He's by no means a long-term solution in the Angels starting rotation. He's been used out of necessity this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers aren't all bad, the wheels have come off lately as he has recorded a 9.72 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over his last three outings, covering a span of just 8 1/3 innings of work. Barria isn't fooling anyone right now, topping out at five strikeouts over his last seven starts. It's not as if the Halos bullpen is likely to rescue Barria here, noting that the L.A. relief corps has posted a collective 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. Like Barria, he has struggled lately. However, he faces an Angels lineup that has been a true 'feast-or-famine' group lately. The Yankees check in 7-5 in Taillon's 12 road starts this season. The big difference here is that behind Taillon is a capable Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an incredible 24:7 save conversion ratio on the road this season. There's reason to believe the Yankees bats can eventually stretch out the winning margin in this one so we'll lay the extra run. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners picked up a much-needed victory to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Royals yesterday afternoon. Now I look for them to build some positive momentum as they open a home series against the Astros on Monday. Luis Garcia will get the nod for Houston. He's admittedly pitched well this season, but much of his success has come at home. In 11 road starts he has recorded a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with the Astros winning just six of his 13 starts. Note that the M's will be seeing him for the third time this season and in their most recent look they got to him early and often, scoring five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in an 11-8 victory here in Seattle. Chris Flexen, like Garcia, has also been better at home than on the road this season. Lately though, it hasn't mattered where he has pitched, he's been rock solid. Flexen has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three outings - all Seattle victories. He is winless in two outings against Houston this season but catches the Astros at the right time here as they've plated just 26 runs over their last seven games combined. While the M's bullpen has quietly posted a 1.07 WHIP at home this season, the Astros 'pen has recorded a 1.50 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Cubs v. White Sox -1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox -1.5 runs over the Cubs at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox bats are on fire once again and I don't see Alec Mills and his 6.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last three starts slowing them down on Saturday night. Meanwhile, Sox starter Lance Lynn took a hard-luck no decision in Toronto earlier this week but Chicago remains 7-2 in his last nine outings, including an 8-6 victory over these same Cubs at Wrigley Field. Lynn owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. With Lynn likely to work deep into the ball game and the White Sox bats in excellent form (27 runs last two games) to support him, look for a lopsided victory for the home side here. Take the White Sox -1.5 runs (6*). |
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08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Arizona at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have put up plenty of offense in the first two games in this series but only managed a 1-1 split. I look for them to run out of gas on Saturday as they fall short of the desperate Phillies in the third game in this series. Philadelphia did well to bail itself out of a mess in the 11th inning last night, ultimately securing a 7-6 walk-off win. That should give it some much-needed confidence ahead of another very winnable game against the lowly Snakes on Saturday. Kyle Gibson has been terrific since joining the Phils and he'll be asked to step up with another solid performance here. He owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his last three outings. Meanwhile, Humberto Mejia is only being used as a stop-gap for a poor D'Backs rotation. He pitched reasonably well against the Pirates in his last start but has generally struggled in four career big league outings, allowing eight earned runs on 19 hits in only 15 innings of work. Behind him is an awful Arizona bullpen that showed its ugly side again last night. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (5*). |
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08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Angels will be looking for the sweep of the Tigers at Comerica Park on Thursday afternoon but I expect Detroit to have other ideas. Jose Quintana is back for our fading pleasure for the first time since late May. That's music to the ears of the Tigers as they've reeled off four straight wins over left-handed starters and actually own a winning record against southpaws this season. In fact, they're 23-8 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line in their last 31 games against LH starters. Quintana has of course been a train wreck this season, posting an ERA north of seven and a WHIP approaching two. Behind Quintana is an Angels bullpen that has been overworked this season and hasn't had a day off in over a week. Matt Manning got off to a brutal start for the Tigers this season but has shown signs of righting the ship lately. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts and owns a respectable 3.15 ERA in four home starts this season. The Tigers are 3-1 in those four home starts with two of the victories coming against playoff contenders in the Cardinals and White Sox. Keep in mind, the Detroit bullpen, while also overworked has managed to convert 15 saves while blowing only six here at home this season. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (6*). |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals dropped the opener of this series by a 2-0 score last night as Corbin Burnes outdueled Adam Wainwright. We're being afforded the opportunity to back the Cardinals plus an insurance run in what should be another pitcher's duel on Wednesday and we'll take advantage. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for Milwaukee. The Brewers have won each of his last four starts. That's not their longest win streak with Peralta on the hill this season, however, as they actually won each of his five starts from May 16th to June 10th. It's worth noting though that they've yet to win five straight Peralta starts by multiple runs, something they'll be looking to do here. I expect them to fall short noting that they've won just once in Peralta's four previous starts against the Cardinals. In his lone previous outing here in St. Louis, the Brewers lost by a 5-2 score. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He returned from injury to shut out the Royals over six innings in his last start. He's been positively dominant here at home this season, recording a 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with the Cardinals winning each of his previous four starts. Behind Flaherty is a Cards bullpen that has been terrific lately. They entered last night's game sporting a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to toss three shutout innings in that 2-0 loss. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (7*). |
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08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Padres yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them as they open a series against the Marlins on Monday night. Zach Thompson will take the ball for Miami. Unfortunately, he's in a tough spot here, making his second consecutive start on just four days' rest. The Marlins are winless in his four road starts this season, where he's averaged just a shade over four innings per start. That spells trouble for an overworked Marlins bullpen that hasn't had a day off since July 29th. Note that Thompson has topped out at three strikeouts or less in three of his last four starts after posting six or more K's in four of his first five outings. Here, he'll be facing the Padres for the second time this season after suffering a 5-2 loss against them at home back on July 23rd. He lasted only five innings in that start, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out only three and walking one. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. We actually cashed a ticket fading him in his most recent start in Oakland. That was no fault of his, however, as he allowed only one earned run on two hits over six innings. Now Musgrove is back home where he owns a 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season. He faced the Marlins once this season, allowing two earned runs over six innings, also matched up against Thompson in that 5-2 win back on July 23rd. Like the Marlins 'pen, the Padres bullpen has also been overworked this season. However, they've still managed to pitch well, recording a collective 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown here at home. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Dodgers bounced back from a disappointing extra innings loss on Friday with a come-from-behind 5-3 victory last night. I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Sunday as they wrap up the series win in convincing fashion. Reid Detmers will get a second straight turn in the rotation for the Angels despite pitching poorly in his big league debut. Detmers was actually favored in that start, at home against the A's, but ultimately lost the game by a lopsided 8-3 score. He gave up six hits and six earned runs, including two home runs, while striking out only two and walking two over 4 1/3 innings. It's hard to envision him faring much better against an even tougher opponent here. While the Angels bullpen has pitched better lately, this is by no means an ideal spot as they've posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. To make matters worse, the Halos inexplicably haven't had a day off since way back on July 21st. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Walker Buehler. All he's done in 13 home starts this season is post a 2.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 0.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three daytime outings with the Dodgers winning all three of those games. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been effective at home this season, recording a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only nine blown (entering last night's action). Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Monday. The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep of the Royals as they made their triumphant return to Rogers Center in Toronto. Now I look for them to get off to a fine start against the Indians on Monday as well. Cleveland limps into this series off another series loss at the hands of the White Sox. Here, they'll hand the ball to Eli Morgan who gets another turn in the rotation despite his struggles. The Jays actually faced Morgan in his first big league start earlier this season, scoring six earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Morgan hasn't been a whole lot better since, failing to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last six starts, allowing at least three earned runs in each of those contests. He's allowed seven home runs in his last four starts alone. Toronto will counter with Robbie Ray. He's quietly anchored the Jays rotation this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 20 starts. Better still, he owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in six daytime outings. He'll have the benefit of facing the Indians for the first time in his career on Monday. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid the bullpens in this one. That's notable as I give the Indians a slight edge in that department. Take Toronto -0.5 runs first five innings (5*). |
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07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Mariners to have the early edge against them on Thursday afternoon. Jordan Montgomery gets the nod for New York. The Mariners have actually hit 14 points higher and averaged 0.3 runs per game more against left-handed starters this season, posting a 16-12 record along the way. Montgomery hasn't been good on the road, where he owns a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In six daytime starts he has posted a 5.97 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Note that he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday after laboring through 4 1/3 innings in his most recent start against the Mets. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only two blown on the road this season. Rookie Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He's settled in a bit after a shaky start to his big league career. Gilbert has been at his absolute best in daytime starts, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four outings with the Mariners winning all four of those games. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Yankees for the first time and will be pitching on at least five days rest for the 10th straight time to open his career. Playing the first five innings should help us avoid a Mariners bullpen that while effective here at home this season has been overworked lately and just logged another four innings last night. Take Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not easy to back the Cubs right now as they enter this game riding an 11-game losing streak. We just lost with them last night +1.5 runs but I won't hesitate to come back with the same play on Wednesday night. The Phillies will give the nod to their ace, Zack Wheeler on Wednesday night. I don't have much negative to say about Wheeler, who is having a career year. With that being said, he will be starting on just four days' rest for the third straight turn in the rotation after working at least seven innings in each of his last two starts. Despite his stellar overall numbers, the Phillies are still just 7-10 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line in his 17 outings this season. Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that hasn't been good on the road this season, posting a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. He has quietly pitched well in five starts this season, recording a 3.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a major concern given the Cubs bullpen has been their strong suit, posting a collective 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 13 converted saves and only three blown at home this season. Mills will have the advantage of facing the Phillies for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs are obviously reeling right now, having not won a game since June 24th. After getting blown out 13-3 in the opener of this series last night, I look for them to bounce back and at the very least take this one down to the wire on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. Like the rest of his team, he has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 3-6 team record in nine starts. Note that he has lasted more than 5 1/3 innings just once in his last six trips to the hill. That's concerning as the Phillies bullpen has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Despite last night's victory, the Phils are still 10 games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. While it's not saying much, he has been better at home this season than on the road, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He'll likely be on a short leash here after struggling in his last several starts but that's not a bad thing as the Cubs bullpen has recorded a terrific 2.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Note that Arrieta will be pitching on five days' rest here. The last four times he's done so he has allowed just seven earned runs in 21 innings of work. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers got past the Giants by a 3-2 score last night. I like San Francisco to get off to a positive start on Tuesday, however, as I fully expect it to at the very least stay level with the Dodgers through the first five innings. Kevin Gausman remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated starters in baseball this season. He checks in sporting an incredible 1.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts. Here, he'll be pitching on five days' rest for the third consecutive start. While he will be facing the Dodgers for the second time this season, it's worth noting that he has allowed a grand total of just four earned runs in 26 innings of work when facing a team for a second (or third) time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Giants bullpen that while solid, has managed to blow 11 saves on the road this season. Walker Buehler will counter for Los Angeles. There's really not a lot negative that can be said of the Dodgers ace (that title is of course debatable given how well Clayton Kershaw has pitched). However, he did labor through his most recent start, allowing three earned runs on five hits, including two home runs, while also issuing a pair of walks over six innings in his most recent start against the Cubs - a 4-0 Dodgers loss. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest. The Giants will be facing Buehler for the third time this season. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
American League Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's on the run-line (free play) last night even though we didn't even need the insurance run in a 5-3 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their series with the Yankees in the Bronx. Chris Bassitt gets the start for Oakland. He was quietly an A.L. Cy Young contender last season and after a slow start this year, he has been excellent for the A's once again. Bassitt checks in sporting a 3.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the A's winning all seven of those games. While he was shaky in his most recent road start in Seattle back on June 1st, it's worth noting that he was pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start in that one. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for a second consecutive outing. Bassitt will also have the advantage of the Yankees having never faced him. Behind Bassitt is a solid A's bullpen that entered last night's game having worked just 20 2/3 innings over their last seven contests, with an off day in the mix as well. They've posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season. Domingo German will counter for New York. He's generally been awful over his last four starts. In six daytime starts this season he owns an ugly 5.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start here at home and while that's generally not a problem as the Yankees bullpen is terrific, we're talking about a group that has been somewhat overworked lately and has struggled a bit as a result. Entering last night's game, the Yankees relief corps had worked 29 1/3 innings over their last seven contests, recording a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.43 WHIP along the way. Finally, I'll point out that the A's have faced German three times since the 2018 season, knocking him around for 13 earned runs in just 15 1/3 innings. With the A's roster mostly intact from recent years, look for them to find continued success here today. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets got the better of the Padres in last night's pitcher's duel (we won with the 'under') and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's off to an incredible start this season and of course already has a no-hitter to his credit. However, he has struggled in four daytime starts, posting a 4.50 ERA and he averages just north of five innings per start on the road. Musgrove has already faced the Mets once this season and it was one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed three earned runs on eight hits over just five innings (he did strike out 10 along the way). While the Padres bullpen working behind him has posted excellent overall numbers this season, I still feel it's an overworked group, having already pitched 271 innings (prior to last night's game). We've seen some regression from the Padres relief corps in recent weeks and could certainly see more of that should they get extended today. Marcus Stroman will counter for the Mets. He didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings when he faced San Diego on June 6th. Stroman checks in sporting an impressive 2.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four home starts this season. He's lasted at least six innings in six straight starts and behind him is one of the best bullpens in baseball, particularly here at home where the Mets relief corps has posted a collective 1.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (entering last night's action). We'll grab the insurance run here but hopefully won't need it. Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers are showing signs of getting rolling again, coming off a three-game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh. I look for them to win in convincing fashion with Clayton Kershaw on the hill against Mike Foltynewicz on Friday night. Foltynewicz is a somewhat familiar face to the Dodgers from his days in the National League. In six career starts against them, he's posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Folty as so far this season he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in four road starts, with the Rangers winning just one of those games. While he has worked seven innings in two of his last three starts, he's still averaging just 5.5 innings per start this season which is concerning as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Clayton Kershaw is coming off back-to-back rough outings but should get back on track here. He has posted a 3.55 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in six home starts, with the Dodgers winning four of those games. Note that he's absolutely owned the opposition in three previous interleague starts, recording a sparkling 0.92 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. While the Rangers have hit better against left-handers this season, better is a relative term in this case as they're still averaging just 4.1 runs per game and hitting .241 against southpaws. With Kershaw averaging around 6 1/3 innings per start here at home, the Dodgers bullpen may not have to factor in too much, but it's worth noting that they've recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. Over their last seven games (entering yesterday's action) they've posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with no blown saves. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | 2-5 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Nats' are a small underdog (at the time of writing) on Saturday, allowing us to grab the insurance run in a spot where I believe they have an edge. Joe Ross will get the start for Washington. While he's struggled for the most part this season, day games haven't been an issue as he's posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five afternoon outings. Ross averages less than five innings per start but behind him is a Nationals bullpen that has also fared very well in day games, recording a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four converted saves compared to just one blown. Spencer Howard will counter for Philadelphia. He has made just two starts this season and has yet to work beyond the fourth inning. Note that the Nationals will be getting their second look at Howard since last August. We're likely to see plenty of the Phillies 'pen on this day, and that relief corps has struggled here at home this season, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take Washington +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions but I look for the Yankees to potentially turn the tide on Tuesday night in the Bronx. Tyler Glasnow gets the start for New York. The Yanks will be getting their second look at him this season after chasing him from a start here in New York after only five innings back in mid-April. In fact, Glasnow has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts against the Yankees and has only managed to last six innings against them once in eight career starts. That could be key here tonight as the Rays bullpen has been average at best on the road this season, posting a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). Domingo German will counter for New York. He has also struggled to work deep into ball games against the Rays although he did go six solid innings in a 6-2 win in his most recent start against them here at home. Note that German has been pitching well, having recorded a 1.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last three starts. He also owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP not to mention a perfect 4-0 team record in four nighttime starts this season. Behind German is a terrific Yankees bullpen that has posted a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season (entering yesterday's game). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |