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Jesse Schule NFLX Totals Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
08-28-22 Giants v. Jets OVER 38 Top 27-31 Win 100 85 h 40 m Show

This is a 10* play on Over.

We wrap up the pre-season on Sunday with the Giants vs Jets. Two undefeated teams, each with solid depth at the QB position. Mike White and Chris Streveler have been great for the Jets, while Tyrod Taylor and Davis Webb have been solid for the GMEN. Last season the Jets final pre-season game was a 31-31 tie, and the Giants also played their highest scoring pre-season game in Week 3. The Giants have averaged 24 points per game in the first two weeks, while the Jets have scored exactly 24 points in both of their games so far. The total here should likely be a few points higher.

GL,

Jesse Schule

08-14-21 Dolphins v. Bears UNDER 37 13-20 Win 100 3 h 35 m Show

5*

08-12-21 Washington Football Team v. Patriots UNDER 37.5 13-22 Win 100 8 h 50 m Show

This is a 5* play on Under 37.5.

The first week of pre-season usually produces a lot of low scoring games, and we expect that to be the case here when the Pats host the Washington Football team tonight. Both these teams ranked near the bottom of the league in passing last year, and when they met in 2019 Washington scored just seven points. I expect a conservative approach here with both teams running a vanilla game plan just looking to get out of here without any serious injuries.

GL,

Jesse Schule

08-29-19 Raiders v. Seahawks OVER 33 Top 15-17 Loss -109 80 h 7 m Show

This is a 10* play on OAK@SEA over 33.

The Seahawks will host Oakland in the final game of the pre-season, and the bookmakers have set the total at just 33. There is plenty of history between these teams, as they have faced each other in the final week of the pre-season every year since 2006. Last year the Raiders won 30-19 at Seattle, and it was the fifth time in the last six years that these teams combined to score 40+ points in the final week of the pre-season. Most coaches have already packed it in by Week 4, but the numbers say that Gruden and Carroll both likely want to win this game. Gruden is an incredible 7-1 lifetime in the final week of the pre-season, while Carroll is 6-3. Oakland has a pair of QBs with starting experience in Nathan Peterman and Mike Glennon, and both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch have put up solid numbers for Seattle.

Take Over.

GL,

Jesse Schule

08-17-18 Bills v. Browns OVER 37 Top 19-17 Loss -110 125 h 16 m Show
This is a 10* play on BUF@CLE to go Over the total.  Both the Bills and the Browns have talented young quarterbacks that are trying to establish themselves, and I expect to see plenty of offense as they meet in the second week of the pre-season. The Bills scored 23 points in a loss to Carolina in Week 1, but the most telling stat in my opinion was the fact that they called twice as many passing plays (39) as they did running plays (21). The Browns won their Week 1 game on the road at New York, and Baker Mayfield lit up the Giants for 212 yards and two TDs on 11-of-20 passing. He should have plenty of swagger in his step here at home, and I expect another big game from the rookie. Tyrod Taylor in under pressure to hold off Mayfield for the starting job, and he was pretty impressive in his own right against the Giants. He threw for 99 yards and a TD on 5-of-5 passing. Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman and AJ MacCarron all threw for over 100 yards last week.  Take Over.  GL,  

Jesse Schule

08-02-18 Bears v. Ravens OVER 33 16-17 Push 0 27 h 51 m Show
This is a 5* play on CHI@BAL to go Over the total.  It's no secret that low scoring games are the trend in the NFL pre-season, and that is especially true in Week 1. The Hall of Fame Game is known to be a snooze fest, and it looks like the bettors are lining up to bet the under when Chicago faces Baltimore in Canton on Thursday. The total for this game opened at 36, and has since been bet down several points. The Ravens were undefeated in the pre-season last year, and they scored 23 points in a Week 1 win over Washington. I wouldn't be surprised to see them have another strong showing here in 2018, with Lamar Jackson and RGIII having plenty to prove. The Bears lost their pre-season opener by a score of 24-17 to Denver, and Mitch Trubisky was sharp throwing for 166 yards and a TD on 18-of-25 passing in the loss. I am going to go against the line movement here, and take a stab on the over with a low number.  Take Over.  GL,  

Jesse Schule

08-24-17 Dolphins v. Eagles UNDER 42 31-38 Loss -110 7 h 12 m Show
This is an 8* play on MIA@PHI to go UNDER the total.

The Miami Dolphins will try to get Jay Cutler up to speed here in their third game of the pre-season. Cutler and Miami's first team offense will have to get it done on the road against the Eagles first team offense. It's not going to be easy, especially given the injuries to key members of the offensive line. Philly looked strong defensively in a home win over Buffalo last week, holding the Bills to just a pair of field goals in the first half. The Dolphins defense didn't look too bad, holding Ryan Mallet of the Ravens to just 113 yards a TD and two INTs on 13-of-22 passing. I am expecting a pair of below average offenses to struggle here against quality defenders.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

08-19-17 Patriots v. Texans OVER 41 23-27 Win 100 6 h 2 m Show

This is an 8* play on NE@HOU to go OVER the total.

The Texans may have lost to the Panthers in Week 1, but they have to be impressed with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. He threw for 179 yards on 15-of-25 passing, but wasn't able to get in the endzone. I expect to see plenty of Watson here this week at home, and I think he might just be even sharper. The Patriots lost to Jacksonville in Week 1, and Chad Henne looked like Aaron Rodgers against New England's second and third string defense. Jimmy G was impressive though, throwing for 235 yards and two TDs on 22-of-28 passing. Brady could see a series or two tonight, and between he and Jimmy G, expect to see the Pats score their share of points. It could be an old fashioned shootout here in Texas at NRG Stadium.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

08-19-17 Packers v. Redskins OVER 39 21-17 Loss -105 6 h 33 m Show

This is an 8* play on GB@WAS to go OVER the total.

Aaron Rodgers didn't see any action in the first week of pre-season, but we expect to see him for a series or two tonight. Backup quarterbacks Brett Hundley and Joe Callahan did a good job of moving the ball in a 24-9 win over Philly. The Packers coaching staff was not happy with the defense though, as missed tackles appeared to be a significant issue. The Redskins didn't have any success on offense in a Week 1 loss at Baltimore, but we expect to see more action for the starters at home here against the Packers. Kirk Cousins should get more time, and he's likely to be airing it out whenever he gets a chance. Cousins threw for 188 yards and three TDs in his first action of last year's pre-season. The Redskins won both home games last pre-season, and scored a combined 43 points in those contests. I expect this to be a relatively high scoring affair between two teams that lean heavily on their passing attack.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

08-25-16 Cowboys v. Seahawks UNDER 44 Top 17-27 Push 0 18 h 5 m Show

This is a 10* play on DAL@SEA to go UNDER the total.

The third week of the pre-season is known to be the most important, the one game that actually matters. This is when most coaches like to leave the starters in for a little longer, in order to get a good idea of what they have to work with. Pete Carroll has a reputation as a guy that covets winning pre-season games, especially in the crucial third week. Since 2012, Seattle is 4-0 in their third game of the pre-season, and in those games they held opponents to an average of just 11 points. The Cowboys are likely to be cautious to avoid injury to Tony Romo, so we should see plenty of Dak Prescott in this game. As good as Prescott has looked against backups, and vanilla schemes, he's going to have a tough time moving the ball against the toughest defenders in the league. Seattle knows what it has at quarterback, so I expect the Hawks to really focus on running the ball here. The last time these teams met in the regular season, the Seahawks won 13-12 at Dallas. They've failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings, and I think tonight's total is just a little too high.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

09-03-15 Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets OVER 44 Top 18-24 Loss -106 60 h 7 m Show

This is a 10* play on PHI@NYJ to go OVER the total. 

The Eagles offense has been a lighting up opposing defenses this pre-season, which really shouldn't come as a surprise. Chip Kelly's team averaged well over 30 points per game while going 2-2 in last year's pre-season. As impressive as their offense has been, the defense hasn't been all that stellar. Last week in Green Bay the Packers played their third and fourth string quarterbacks, and they threw for 399 yards and three TDs. 

This week we should see plenty of playing time for backup quarterbacks, but the Jets have one of the league's better backups in Matt Flynn. The former Green Bay quarterback has put up impressive numbers over his career in these situations, and he needs to have a good game tonight if he hopes to secure a roster spot. 

Kelly's system is designed to move the ball quickly, without taking much time off the clock. It doesn't matter whether it's practice, pre-season, regular season or the playoffs, everything is at full speed. They beat the Ravens by a score of 40-17 in Week 2, without scoring a single passing TD. They scored 37 points in a win over the Jets in their final game of last year's pre-season, and I expect another high scoring game here tonight. 

Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule

08-28-15 Tennessee Titans v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 43 Top 10-34 Win 100 88 h 54 m Show

This is a 10* play on TEN@KC to go OVER the total. 

The Titans offense has looked pretty good so far in the pre-season, but I am not as optimistic about their defense. They are in Kansas City in Week 3, in a game that should see both teams starters play significant minutes. 

Marcus Mariota had a terrible start, turning the ball over twice in a 31-24 loss to the Falcons in Week 1. He bounced back with a better performance last week, throwing for 59 yards on 5-of-8 passing, Zack Mettenberger has been solid in both games, throwing for over 200 yards with a pair of TDs and an INT. 

The Chiefs made headlines last season as quarterback Alex Smith went the entire year without throwing a single TD pass to a wide receiver. The addition of Jeremy Maclin should change that, and the pair hooked up for a three yard strike in the first quarter of last week's win over the Seahawks. Smith and backup Chase Daniel should have little trouble moving the ball against a Titans defense than ranked 27th in the NFL last season. 

Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone over the total. 

Take OVER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

08-22-15 Baltimore Ravens v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44.5 Top 17-40 Win 100 123 h 5 m Show

This is a 10* play on BAL@PHI to go OVER the total. 

The Eagles scored 36 points in a blowout win over the Colts in Week 1. It wasn't much of a surprise when you consider the Eagles were just 2-2 in last year's pre-season, winning both of their home games. They scored more than their fair share of points, averaging just short of 33 points per game.

The Ravens also put up a big number in their pre-season opener, defeating the Saints by a score of 30-27. Joe Flacco completed five of six pass attempts for 33 yards with no TDs and no INTs. He should see a little more time here in the second week of pre-season play. 

Sam Bradford did not play on Week 1, but we should see him here in tonight's game. The word out of training camp is that Bradford has been quite impressive, but Mark Sanchez has also been doing his best to create a quarterback controversy. Sanchez stole the show completing 132 of 184 pass attempts for 11 TDs and just one interception in practices prior to last week's game.

Kelly's coaching philosophy is that he does everything at "full speed", and it doesn't matter if it's practice, pre-season or regular season. We should expect another high scoring affair in Philly tonight. 

Take OVER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

08-13-15 Dallas Cowboys v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 38 7-17 Win 100 91 h 3 m Show

This is a 5* play on DAL@SD to go UNDER the total.

It came as no surprise that we saw another low scoring tilt between the Steelers and the Vikings in this year's Hall of Fame Game. The first game of the pre-season has failed to go over 37 points in eight of the last 11 annual events. Low scoring games are the norm in the pre-season, and I find it a little odd that bookmakers seem overly optimistic about how many points are going to be scored here in Week 1. We saw five of the six games go under on the opening Thursday of the 2014 pre-season, and only five of 18 games saw more than 37 points scored in the entire first week.

The Cowboys and the Chargers met on Thursday night last season, and the Chargers won that game by a score of 27-7. Tony Romo did not play at all in that game, while Philip Rivers came in for just one series, going 4-for-4 for 61 yards with no TDs and no picks. Neither coach showed any desire to play their starters, and we will assume that it will be the same approach here this time around.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

08-13-15 Miami Dolphins v. Chicago Bears UNDER 37 10-27 Push 0 17 h 38 m Show

This is a 5* play on MIA@CHI to go UNDER the total. 

It came as no surprise that we saw another low scoring tilt between the Steelers and the Vikings in this year's Hall of Fame Game. The first game of the pre-season has failed to go over 37 points in eight of the last 11 annual events. Low scoring games are the norm in the pre-season, and I find it a little odd that bookmakers seem overly optimistic about how many points are going to be scored here in Week 1. We saw five of the six games go under on the opening Thursday of the 2014 pre-season, and only five of 18 games saw more than 37 points scored in the entire first week. 

The Dolphins went 3-1 in the 2014 pre-season, but their lone loss came in Week 1 by a score of 16-10 at Atlanta. Ryan Tannehill saw one series, going 6-for-6 for 62 yards and a TD. The rest of the Miami starters saw limited action as well, including Lamar Miller who had just four carries. Chicago was involved in a barn burner versus the Eagles in their first exhibition game of 2014, and their starters saw a bit more action. It's a new regime with John Fox taking over as head coach of the Bears though, and he could be a little more conservative. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

08-13-15 Green Bay Packers v. New England Patriots UNDER 37.5 22-11 Win 100 16 h 8 m Show

This is a 5* play on GB@NE to go UNDER the total. 

It came as no surprise that we saw another low scoring tilt between the Steelers and the Vikings in this year's Hall of Fame Game. The first game of the pre-season has failed to go over 37 points in eight of the last 11 annual events. Low scoring games are the norm in the pre-season, and I find it a little odd that bookmakers seem overly optimistic about how many points are going to be scored here in Week 1. We saw five of the six games go under on the opening Thursday of the 2014 pre-season, and only five of 18 games saw more than 37 points scored in the entire first week. 

The Packers lost at Tennessee by a score of 20-16 in their first exhibition game last year, and Aaron Rodgers didn't even step on the field. In fact the backup quarterbacks were 14-of-25 for 148 yards with no TDs and no picks. The focus seemed to be on the running game, with eight players combining for 148 yards on 35 carries. Tom Brady didn't see any action in a Week 1 loss to the Redskins last year, and Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 137 yards and a TD, but that was the Patriots only score. The word out of Patriots camp is that Garoppolo has really struggled, so Belickick will likely want to give him plenty of reps. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

08-18-14 Cleveland Browns v. Washington Redskins OVER 41 Top 23-24 Win 100 41 h 32 m Show

This is a 5* play on CLE@WAS to go OVER the total. 

The Redskins host the Browns on Monday Night Football, and everyone is looking forward to seeing Johnny Manziel in just his second pre-season game. Browns rookie head coach Mike Pettine has already assured fans that Manziel will see time with the first team offense: "Johnny's going to get reps with the ones. Just to me, the factor of starting the game I think is a little bit overblown in this situation because we're going to try to balance the reps with the ones, It's a little overrated who trots out there for the first time."

The Redskins will also showcase more of their starters in this game, most notably their star wideouts Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. Backup quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins impressed in the win over New England, throwing for a combined 205 yards and a pair of TDs. They will take a back seat to Robert Griffin tonight, at least for most of the first half. 

We have seen a trend of high scoring games in this pre-season, and tonight's game should be another shootout. Both teams are excited about their respective offenses, and with the aid of the flag happy officials, there should be no shortage of points. 

Take OVER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

08-16-14 NY Giants v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 41 Top 27-26 Win 100 13 h 35 m Show

This is a 2* play on NYG@IND to go OVER the total. 

The Colts and the Giants will meet in Indianapolis tonight, and these are two teams that are known more for offensive prowess rather than solid defense. The Giants come in with a perfect 2-0 record, while the Colts lost to the Jets in Week 1. 

We didn't see a lot of Andrew Luck in New York, but we should expect the young quarterback to make more of an impact on this game. The Colts played the Giants in the second week of last pre-season, and Luck had the bulk of the snaps, tossing a pair of TD passes. 

Eli only attempted two passes in the win at Pittsburgh last week, but I expect to see the Giants play their starters a little more here tonight. They have had two games to shake off the rust, and should be ready to test drive the first team offense. 

So far we've seen the officials tossing a lot of flags, and that might be one reason why all four games went over the total last night. I'm expecting to see these teams air it out, and we should see plenty of points. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule

08-23-13 Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 42.5 Top 17-10 Win 100 6 h 2 m Show
This is a 2* play on SEA@GB to go UNDER.

We all remember last year's Monday night debacle, when replacement referees botched the call on the final play of the game ruling that the Seahawks scored a touchdown on a hail mary pass to Golden Tate in the endzone.

There was something else about that game that has stuck in my memory, neither team was able to move the ball. Through the first three quarters both teams combined for a total of just 13 points. They scored 13 more in the fourth quarter, but seven of those should never have counted.

The Packers and their fans surely haven't forgotten about last season's bitter Monday night defeat. The last thing anyone in Green Bay wants to see is the Seahawks come to town and embarrass their beloved Packers.

We know that Pete Carroll plays to win in the pre-season, and we've seen his Seahawks win six in row over the past two seasons, blowing out the opposition by double digits in each of those victories.

When it comes to the third week of pre-season play though, Mike McCarthy also likes to play for keeps, as the Packers are 8-2 ATS in Week 3 over the past 10 seasons.

The Pack is likely to focus heavily on running the ball, with a raging battle between Eddy Lacy and DuJuan Harris.

After two weeks of exhibition games, Seattle's defense has allowed an average of 10 points per game, while Green Bay's defense has allowed an average of just 12 points per game.

I expect to see a hard fought defensive battle here, resulting in a close low scoring affair.

GL,

Jesse Schule
08-04-13 Miami Dolphins v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 32.5 Top 20-24 Win 100 13 h 56 m Show
This is a 2* play on Dallas vs Miami + OVER It is well documented that scoring in the pre-season is not as high as the reg-season. That being said, the books adjust accordingly, and as is often the case, in some cases they over-compensate. We've seen the total fall below 30 points each year in the Hall of Fame Game since 2009 when the Bills and the Titans combined to score 39. These two teams combined to score 43 points in the final game of the pre-season last year, with Dallas winning 30-13. Tony Romo did not play in that game, and he won't be suiting up tonight either. Veteran Kyle Orton should see his fair share of snaps, and he was solid last pre-season. Orton has no shortage of experience as a starter in the NFL, and he's going to want to make the most of any chances he gets behind center. The Dolphins spent a ton of money over the off-season, most notably wide-out Mike Wallace, but he's sitting this one out with a groin injury. On the defensive side of the ball the Fish have to replace linebackers Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett, as well as their top cover corner Sean Smith. We are just getting our feet wet here with the first NFLX action of the year, but my thinking is that the total is low, and that the Cowboys are being overlooked because Romo won't start. We saw the backups light it up last year for the Cowboys in the pre-season, and Jason Garrett will certainly hope for similar results this time around. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule

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