12-13-15 |
Bills +2.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
158 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Eagles are coming off an upset win over New England at Foxboro, but keep in mind that they caught the Pats without Gronk and Edelman. They had been blown out in back to back losses previously, and they went down 14-0 early in the win over New England. This week they face a tough Buffalo Bills team that comes in with a red hot Shady McCoy who still has an axe to grind.
Rex Ryan is doing a great job in Buffalo, and it appears that his players have bought in, trusting in his system. The same can't be said for Chip Kelly, who is probably going to be back in college next year. He's made a complete mess of the Eagles, and his players look like they have quit on him. After paying a big price to get DeMarco Murray, the Eagles are rumored to be considering cutting last year's leading rusher.
The Eagles secondary is really struggling, and opposing quarterbacks have a whopping 13 passing TDs against Philly in it's last three games. They are going to have a tough time containing Sammy Watkins, who finally looks healthy after battling injuries early in the year. He's caught 14 passes for 267 yards and three scored in his last two games.
LeSean McCoy ran for 112 yards on just 21 carries against Houston last week, and I think he's going to have a big day in his return to Philly.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-13-15 |
Saints +4 v. Bucs |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
103 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The New Orleans Saints came very close to upsetting the undefeated Carolina Panthers last week, but Cam Newton threw the game winning TD pass with just one minute left on the clock, and the Panthers won 41-38. The Bucs also scored late to come from behind and beat the Falcons at home last week, and they are asked to cover a big spread at home versus the Saints today. Jameis Winston has had his moments this season, but his best games have been on the road. He's thrown six TD passes and nine picks at home, while he's thrown for 11 TDs and just two picks on the road. The Bucs are 6-6 overall, but three of those wins came by four points or less. Tampa doesn't inspire much confidence as a home favorite, going 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-13-15 |
Falcons +7.5 v. Panthers |
Top |
0-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
73 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Panthers are now 12-0, and the hype machine is still churning at full speed. They are hosting a struggling Atlanta Falcons team this week, and they are asked to cover a big number at home. I think this team is long overdue for a let down, and last week in New Orleans they needed to score late to come from behind and steal a win. They went down 14-0 early in that game, and they allowed the Saints to score a whopping 38 points.
The Falcons have lost five straight, but four of those five losses came by a margin of four points or less. Matt Ryan has had his struggles, but he's still 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,481. Julio Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,338, and I think the dynamic duo will be able to put points on the board here against the Panthers.
Carolina crushed the Falcons in Atlanta last season by a score of 34-3, but the Falcons won in Carolina by a score of 19-17. Exactly half of the Panthers 12 wins this year have come by single digits, but four of their six home wins were decided by eight points or less.
It's not easy to be at your best every night, or every week - as evidenced by the Patriots loss to the Broncos, or the Warriors losing last night to the Milwaukee Bucks. I like the Falcons to keep this game close, and don't be surprised to see another shocking upset.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-10-15 |
Vikings v. Cardinals -7 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-120 |
65 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Minnesota Vikings are still tied with Green Bay at the top of the NFC North, but they were exposed by the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. I bet on Seattle in that game, and here is what I said prior to kickoff:
"This is a Vikings team that I believe is one of the most overrated in the NFL. Last week's win over Atlanta marked the first time the Vikes actually beat a team with a winning record, as Minnesota has taken advantage of a very soft schedule."
"Minnesota has faced just three teams with a record above .500, losing two of those three. I don't see them stopping the Seahawks here today."
They had no answer for Seattle's offense, and injuries to key defenders Antone Exum, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith did not help. All three players will miss tonight's game in Arizona.
"The Vikings rookie quarterback has looked pretty shaky all season long, and I think facing an opportunistic Seahawks defense will be a recipe for disaster for Teddy Bridgewater. He threw for just 174 yards with no TDs and an INT in last week's win over Atlanta, and his eight TDs this season are only one more than his total interceptions (7)."
Bridgewater threw for just 118 yards and an INT on 17-of-28 passing in the loss to the Seahawks. Adrian Peterson was not pleased with his role in last week's loss, and has told reporters that his team was out-coached. Those comments aren't likely to sit will with Mike Zimmer, but Peterson isn't backing off, telling the media he stands by his comments.
The Cardinals boast the NFL's 4th ranked defense, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. They are particularly strong against the run, allowing opponents to average just 89 rushing yards per game.
This matchup looks like a disaster waiting to happen for the Vikings on a short week.
Take ARIZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-06-15 |
Colts +7.5 v. Steelers |
Top |
10-45 |
Loss |
-123 |
44 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts aren't getting a lot of respect, coming into Pittsburgh as a big underdog on Sunday night. They've won three straight, and backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as a starter this season. During that span he's thrown for over 1000 yards, with seven TD passes and just two INTs. He had a big game at home last week, throwing for 315 yards and a pair of TDs in a win over Tampa Bay.
The Steelers defense didn't look that sharp last week, allowing Russel Wilson to throw for 345 yards and five TDs. Two weeks earlier they were lit up by Derek Carr of the Raiders, who threw for 301 yards and four TDs in a 38-35 loss at Pittsburgh.
The Steelers won big at home last year, defeating the Colts by a score of 51-34. Prior to that though these teams had played three straight games decided by three points or less. Given Pittsburgh's questionable defense, I think the Steelers are being asked to cover far too many points here on Sunday night.
Take INDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-06-15 |
Panthers v. Saints +7 |
Top |
41-38 |
Win
|
100 |
158 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week's game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn't easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league's bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.
The Saints aren't exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league's top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that's been the case again this year. He's thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he's only been picked off four times in those five games.
He's going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it's share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they've only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.
The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game, and I expect the Saints to keep it close, if not win outright.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-29-15 |
Patriots v. Broncos +3 |
Top |
24-30 |
Win
|
100 |
572 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
I still can't believe the Broncos were a home dog to the Packers in Week 8! Denver's defense was dominant in that game, holding Aaron Rodgers to a career worst 77 yards on 14-of-22 passing. Peyton Manning didn't throw a TD pass in that game, but Denver ran for 160 yards and three TDs. I expect to see a similar result here this week against the undefeated New England Patriots. This is such a tough spot for New England, coming off a short week, after playing a brutal home game against the Bills. Tom Brady took several punishing hits in that game, and he lost two more wide receivers. Already without Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, both Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola left with injuries and did not return. That will leave New England with no healthy wide receivers that have any real experience with Brady. Gronkowski didn't look good at all on Monday night, with several drops on balls that could have been caught. Brock Osweiler looked pretty sharp in his debut, throwing for 250 yards and a pair of TDs with no turnovers. He should be even more confident playing at home with one start under his belt. Take Denver. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-26-15 |
Panthers v. Cowboys +2.5 |
Top |
33-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
54 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
It may seem strange that the undefeated Carolina Panthers come into Dallas to take on the 3-7 Cowboys, and some bookmakers are calling Dallas the favorite, but this actually makes plenty of sense. The Cowboys are actually 3-0 with Tony Romo, and this is a must win game for Dallas to keep any hope alive for the post-season. It's a classic "Let Down" spot for the Panthers, who travel on a short week.
Cam Newton is playing like an MVP, and he's coming off perhaps the best game of his career, throwing for five TDs in Sunday's win over Washington. Of all the players than might let success go to their head, Newton seems like a likely candidate. In fact, while Tony Romo was studying game film, I'll bet Cam was trying to decide whether he was going to do "The Whip", "The Dab" or "The Nae Nae" for his customary touchdown celebration dance this week.
If Greg Hardy has anything to say about it, his former teammate will be doing more running than dancing. Hardy might not be the most popular player in the NFL, but there is no doubting his ability to get to the quarterback. He comes into this game looking for a bit of revenge on the franchise that he feels turned their backs on him.
While the Panthers haven't lost, they have been fortunate in a couple of close games. They came from behind to beat the Seahawks with a late TD in Seattle, and they survived a second half collapse in an overtime win over Indy at home. I think their luck is about to run out here in Dallas, and I expect Romo to out-play Cam Newton in this one.
Take DAL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-23-15 |
Bills +8.5 v. Patriots |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
89 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Billls.
The Patriots are still undefeated, and they remain Super Bowl favorites despite a rash of recent injuries. They lost their leading rusher Dion Lewis a few weeks ago to a season ending injury, and then last week they lost Julian Edelman for the rest of the year. The Pats beat the Bills in Buffalo in Week 2 by a score of 40-32, and Lewis and Edelman combined to scored three of their touchdowns in that game.
That game might have been a lot different if Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor did throw three INTs, and he's likely to perform better as he's since been picked off just once in five starts. He was also sacked eight times, but Jason Collins played a roll in three of those sacks, and he's sidelined by illness for tonight's game.
We know Rex Ryan gets all amped up to play the Patriots, and his teams have given New England trouble in the past. His Jets might not have won a lot of games at New England, but many of those games were a lot closer than they were expected to be. Rex would be wise to focus on the run, handing the ball off to Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy, who is coming off consecutive 100+ yard games.
It's going to be a cold and windy night at Foxboro, and I think we could see a close low scoring game where offense is hard to come by for both teams. All things considered, I think the Pats are being asked to cover a few too many points.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-15 |
Bengals +5 v. Cardinals |
Top |
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
64 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are coming off a home loss to the Texans, and it looks like everyone has jumped right off the band wagon as this previously undefeated team is now getting a bunch of points on the road at Arizona. The Cardinals have been impressive this season, but I still can't ignore the fact that all seven of their wins have come against teams with a losing record.
They looked shaky at times even in games that they did win. At home against Baltimore, they really struggled to pull away from the Ravens who were just 1-6 at the time. Then they went out on the road and trailed the Browns 20-7 just before halftime. They rallied to win that game, but rallying against the Browns isn't quite the same as rallying against a team with an 8-1 record. Last week they blew a big lead at Seattle, but managed to come back and win once again.
The Bengals are on pace to allow just 270 points, and that would be the fewest the club has given up since 1978. They are allowing a league low 16.9 points per game, and I like their chances of hanging with Arizona here in the desert.
The Bengals have covered in four straight road games, seven of their last eight overall, and I just think the Cardinals are asked to cover a few too many points.
Take CINCY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-15 |
Packers +1 v. Vikings |
Top |
30-13 |
Win
|
100 |
61 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers have lost three straight, and everyone is asking "what's wrong with Aaron Rodgers?". Well two of those losses came to undefeated teams, but last week's loss to the Lions was pretty ugly. During the week Rodgers admitted to reporters that he has been bothered by a shoulder injury.
Let me ask you.. do you think he's going to keep an injury quiet, and then all of a sudden let the cat out of the bag and let an opponent know he's vulnerable? I don't think so. The fact that he's talking about his sore shoulder, leads me to believe that it's no longer bothering him. That's in line with the reports out of Green Bay, as he was apparently throwing darts in practice on Thursday.
The Packers have had the Vikings number, winning four of the last five in this series. Aaron Rodgers threw five TD passes and no INTs winning both games against them last season. While Minny has a 7-2 record, did anyone bother to look at their schedule? Have a peek at who they've played, and you will see that not one of those wins came against a team with a winning record. They've beaten the Lions twice, the Chargers, Chiefs, etc.
I'm expecting the Packers to get back on track this week against an overrated Vikings team.
Take GB.
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-15 |
Colts +6 v. Falcons |
Top |
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
57 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are coming off a bye week, and they upset Denver at home in their last game. The bad news for Indy is that starting quarterback Andrew Luck is injured, and won't be available when they play at Atlanta this week.
Starting in his place is veteran Matt Hasselbeck, who is 2-0 as a starter, with 495 yards, three TDs and not a single interception so far this season. He's a guy that played in the Super Bowl with Seattle, and has a ton of experience. I don't think the bookmakers are giving the Colts enough respect here as a significant underdog.
The Falcons have lost three of their last four, scoring an average of just 16.8 points in those games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Colts have won three of the last four meetings between the two teams, and they covered the spread in all three of those victories. I like Indy to keep this one close, and I think this line is a little out of whack.
Take INDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-15 |
Broncos +1.5 v. Bears |
Top |
17-15 |
Win
|
100 |
57 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos will be on the road at Chicago this week, taking on a Bears team that is coming off consecutive wins. Before we get too excited about the Bears, let me point out that all four of their wins this season have come against teams with a losing record.
The Broncos will be without veteran quarterback Peyton Manning, and of course the bookmakers have adjusted the line accordingly. Manning might be the best quarterback to ever play the game, but he hasn't been much of an asset to his team recently. He was picked off six times in his last two starts, and last week he threw for just 35 yards on 5-of-20 passing. Protecting the football has been an issue for Manning all year long, yet still the Broncos started the season 7-0.
Their strength is their defense, and they likely won't be asking Brock Osweiler to do too much today. Jay Cutler could be in for a long day, facing a tough Denver pass rush. Cutler has done a great job protecting the football this season, but he's proven throughout his career that he makes poor decisions under pressure. He'll be under pressure all day here on Sunday. The Bears are also a little banged up, with both Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery both listed at questionable.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-15 |
Rams +3 v. Ravens |
Top |
13-16 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Rams are on the road in Baltimore on Sunday, looking to bounce back from back to back losses. Nick Foles has been just brutal in those games, and last week he threw for 200 yards and an INT on 17-of-36 passing in a loss to Chicago. Todd Gurley only got 12 carries, as the Rams were fighting an uphill battle from the get go.
We'll see a different game plan this week, with backup quarterback Case Keenum under center. The Rams will likely have a conservative approach, leaning on Todd Gurley and the running game. This should be a recipe success against a Baltimore team that found a way to lose to the lowly Jaguars last week.
Joe Flacco threw a pair of interceptions against the Jags last week, and he's throwing the ball to a depleted receiving corps that is missing Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta. The Ravens have failed to cover in seven straight home games, and yet they are a favorite here this week.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-15 |
Bucs v. Eagles -6 |
Top |
45-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles are coming off a home loss to the Miami Dolphins, but I think they should get back on track this week hosting Tampa Bay. The Bucs are coming off a home win over the Cowboys, and they've won two of their last three. Their rookie quarterback Jameis Winston failed to throw a TD pass for the second straight week, but he did throw a couple of picks against the Cowboys. He's likely going to find it tough going against an opportunistic Eagles defense.
Philadelphia has won the last three meetings between the two teams, covering the spread in all three of those games. Mark Sanchez will come in to replace Sam Bradford, and Sanchez has plenty of experience running Chip Kelly's offense. He started nine games last year, and saw plenty of action in the pre-season. Last year's leading rusher DeMarco Murray has been slightly under used in the offense this season, but he could play a bigger role this week with the backup quarterback under center.
Take PHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-15-15 |
Patriots -7 v. Giants |
Top |
27-26 |
Loss |
-115 |
163 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
The Giants defense is in complete shambles. Oh yeah they did win last week, I bet on them in fact. Here is what I said prior to their game versus the Bucs:
"The Giants lost on the road at New Orleans last week, and everyone is down on this team coming into this week. I've heard so much talk about how bad their defense is, how they can't stop the pass, and look at how many points they give up. All that is true ... but I am not hearing any talk about the fact that Eli Manning threw for 360 yards and six TDs, or Odell Beckham Jr pulling in eight catches for 130 yards and three TDs.
The Giants defense is bad, and I won't argue about that. I will point out though that they are going into to Tampa to face a rookie quarterback that might be the least likely candidate to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings. I mean .. Jameis Winston is NOT Drew Brees. Famous Jameis only threw for 177 yards on 16-of-29 passing in the win over Atlanta last week. If this game turns into an offensive shootout, I really don't like Winston's chances of keeping pace with Eli and the Giants"
They don't have the luxury of facing a below average rookie quarterback this week, as their league worst pass defense will face the best quarterback in the NFL. Just a few weeks after Drew Brees torched them for 505 yards and seven TDs, I really don't like their chances of slowing down Tom Brady. New York only has nine sacks this season, and they have no sacks in their last two games. Jason Pierre-Paul is back, but don't expect him to work miracles.
Early in the season the Patriots appeared to be vulnerable on defense, but Bill Belichick seems to have mad adjustments, and they have looked a lot better defensively in recent weeks. I think the Pats will pile on here in New York, winning this one by double digits.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-08-15 |
Rams +3 v. Vikings |
Top |
18-21 |
Push |
0 |
134 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Minnesota Vikings host the St. Louis Rams this Sunday, and I think the bookmakers have the wrong team favored in this one. The Vikes are asked to cover a handful of points, perhaps because they have an impressive 5-2 record. A closer look at their schedule though reveals that none of those five wins have come against a team with a winning record, and in fact they've played the last place Lions twice. Their other three wins have come against the Chargers, Chiefs and Bears.
The Rams on the other hand have been testing themselves against the elite teams in the NFC West, and while they lost to the Packers, they did beat Seattle at home and won on the road at Arizona. Rookie running back Todd Gurley is already considered by some to be the league's top running back, coming off four straight games with over 125+ yards. He's averaging a league best 6.1 yards per carry this season, even more impressive when you look at the teams that he's faced.
Teddy Bridgewater still appears to have a long way to go as a quarterback in this league, and he threw for just 187 yards with a TD and an INT against the Bears. He's struggled against some of the league's weaker defenses, and I think he's going to be facing his toughest challenge of the season here this week. While the Rams and Vikes rank 5th and 6th respectively in total defense, the Vikings stats are a little skewed by an extremely soft schedule.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
Packers v. Broncos +3.5 |
Top |
10-29 |
Win
|
100 |
90 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
Have you heard the news? Peyton Manning is a has been, all washed up they say. Well I'll tell you right now that I'm not buying it. At the end of the day, his team is undefeated, and he's a big reason why. While his numbers don't show it, he's done just enough to put his team in position to win games, and that includes a 4th quarter comeback in Kansas City.
Manning threw for 256 yards and three TDs in that game, including an 80 yard drive that ended with a game-tying touchdown with 32 seconds on the clock. That allowed the Broncos to win the game with a fumble recovery for a TD on the next series.
It comes as no surprise to me that Manning's numbers are down this year, here is what I said before their home opener versus Baltimore: " I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game. I also believe they will have one of the league's best defenses with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos had a whopping 20 sacks on opposing quarterbacks this pre-season."
You can also blame poor offensive line play for much of his struggles, but coming off a bye week might be just what they needed to rejuvenate. The Packers rank first in the NFL in points allowed, but they were lit up for 503 yards and two TDs by Phillip Rivers in their last game.
Green Bay's prolific offense has never been quite as potent away from Lambeau Field, and they totaled just 17 points in San Francisco in their last road game. Rodgers has averaged just 206 passing yards in two road games this season, and a trip to Denver is a tougher test than the previous two.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
Seahawks -5.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
13-12 |
Loss |
-107 |
161 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
After going to back to back Superbowls, and winning their division two years in a row, the Seahawks are flying under the radar this year with a record of just 3-4. They've lost three of four on the road, but lets have a look at those games. The St. Louis Rams, Green Bay Packers, and Cincinnati Bengals boast a combined record of 15-3. Seattle actually led in the fourth quarter of all three of those games.
If Cowboys fans relish the fact that Seattle has blown late leads, I would be quick to ask: "Do you really think Matt Cassel can engineer a fourth quarter comeback against this defense?"
The Cowboys lost to the Giants last week, and Cassel looked terrible throwing for 227 yards with a TD and three INTs on 17-of-27 passing. That was against a New York defense that came into that game ranking near last in the NFL against the pass.
The Seahawks lead the league in rushing, averaging over 143 yards per game. Dallas couldn't stop the Giants last week, as New York ran for 132 yards and a TD on just 25 attempts. This figures to be a tough matchup for the Cowboys who are likely going to struggle to run the ball, putting more pressure on their struggling backup quarterback.
Dez Bryant may return from injury, but he isn't likely to be as much of a factor as you might think. Tony Romo only missed one game last year, and Bryant caught just two passes for 15 yards in that game, with Brandon Weeden at quarterback in a 28-17 loss at Arizona.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
49ers v. Rams -7 |
Top |
6-27 |
Win
|
100 |
160 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The San Francisco 49ers were embarrassed at home in a loss to Seattle on Thursday night. They can expect more of the same as they head out on the road to face a St. Louis team that has a similar defense. The Rams are coming off a big home win over the Browns, limiting Cleveland to a pair of field goals in a 24-6 victory. Todd Gurley was the star once again, he ran for 128 yards and a pair of TDs on just 19 carries. The rookie has averaged 144 yards per game, on better than six yards per carry over the last three games. Gurley will try to do what Marshawn Lynch did to this 49ers defense, as Beast Mode ran for 122 yards and a TD in Seattle's win last Thursday. Making matters even worse for San Francisco, they will be without their starting running back Carlos Hyde, who is battling a foot injury. Rugby League star Jarryd Hayne will be filling in, but this is a tough spot for the Aussie to try to make a name for himself. Colin Kaepernick was sacked six times last week, while throwing for just 124 yards and no scores. He's facing a Rams defense that ranks second on the NFL in sacks, so you can expect him to spend plenty of time picking himself up off the turf here today.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-26-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Arizona Cardinals -7.5 |
Top |
18-26 |
Win
|
100 |
130 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Ravens come into Arizona with a 1-5 record, and their one victory came in overtime in Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that was without it's starting quarterback. They lost badly at San Francisco last week, and lost to the Cleveland Browns at home a week earlier. The Cardinals have had little trouble running up the score against the league's weaker teams, with double digit wins over New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit and San Francisco.
Carson Palmer is having a big year, throwing for 1737 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs so far. He's likely to have a big game hear against a banged up Baltimore defense that allowed Colin Kaepernick to throw for a season high 340 yards last week.
Joe Flacco was picked off twice in the loss to the 49ers, and he's simply being asked to do too much with very little help. He isn't surrounded by a lot of talent, with a depleted receiving corps, and a backup running back in Justin Forsett who only became the starter after Ray Rice was cut. Forsett was not very effective last week against San Francisco, running for 62 yards on 17 carries. He isn't likely to have any more success against an Arizona defense that is particularly strong against the run.
The Cardinals have been very tough at home, going 15-4 under Bruce Arians. They've also won 16 of 20 with Carson Palmer at quarterback.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-25-15 |
New Orleans Saints v. Indianapolis Colts -4 |
Top |
27-21 |
Loss |
-115 |
87 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NFL play on the Indianapolis #Colts.
The Colts came into this season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but after starting the season with back to back losses, their stock dropped significantly. Chuck Pagano made a colossal blunder on a fake punt late in last week's loss to New England, but overall the Colts looked pretty impressive in that game. Andrew Luck threw for a season high 312 yards and three TDs, and finally looks healthy.
In hindsight, I believe his poor play earlier in the season was likely due to a shoulder injury that was bothering him long before anyone was aware of it. He should be in for a big day against this Saints defense that ranks 25th in the NFL against the pass. New Orleans is 0-3 on the road so far, surrendering a total of 97 points in those three losses.
Drew Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but his numbers are always better at the Super Dome than they are on the road. He's completed 74% of his passes for 926 yards, four TDs and one INT in three home games. His completion percentage drops to 61% on the road, throwing for 690 yards, three TDs and two INTs.
The Colts are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home games, and the Saints have lost 10 of their last 14 road games. I think the number here should be a lot higher in favor of the Colts.
Take IND.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-19-15 |
NY Giants +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
Top |
7-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
179 h 7 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the New York Giants.
The Eagles are getting a lot of love from the public here at home on Monday night. They are a pretty big favorite when you consider they still have a losing record, and both their wins were aided by turnovers. Last week they beat a pretty bad Saints team, and Drew Brees threw and interception and lot two fumbles. Their only other win came against the Jets, and New York tuned the ball over four times in that game.
Chip Kelly isn't really fooling anybody with this offense, and DeMarco Murray and Sam Bradford have both failed to live up to expectations. Bradford ranks 30th in the NFL with a passer rating of 83.7, while Murray has averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, and has failed to rush for 100 yards in any of his games this season.
Eli Manning is having a great season so far, and he threw for a season high 441 yards and three TDs in a home win over San Francisco last Sunday. He's fortunate to have one of the best receivers in the game in Odell Beckham Jr., who caught 11 passes for 121 yards and a TD in the win over the Niners. He's still listed as questionable for this game with a sore hamstring, but he'll more than likely be able to go.
The Giants own the leagues' top run defense so far this season, allowing only 80 rushing yards per game and a total of just three rushing TDs. If they can stop the Eagles running game, I don't think Philly will be able to take advantage of a below average New York secondary. The Eagles don't exactly have the most talented receiving corps, and they've been plagued by penalties and poor play on the offensive line.
This line looks incredibly inflated, and I like New York's chances of keeping it close, if not winning outright.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-18-15 |
Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Seattle Seahawks |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
145 h 6 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers.
The Seahawks are a team with a big reputation, but with a record that doesn't match up. They've won only two games this season, and those two opponents have a combined record of 2-8. Even in the games they won, their offense has failed to impress. Russell Wilson isn't getting any pass protection, and he's on pace to be sacked 70 times this season.
Seattle is asked to cover a big number at home against an undefeated Carolina team, and I think they are getting way too much respect from the bookmakers here. The Panthers own the league's best defense against the run, allowing opponents to average just 92 rushing yards per game.
Andy Dalton carved up the Seattle secondary last week, throwing for 331 yards and a pair of TDs on 30-of-44 passing. His top target was TE Tyler Eifert, who caught eight passes for 90 yards and two TDs. Cam Newton knows a thing or two about hooking up with his TE, as Greg Olsen leads the team with 243 receiving yards and a pair of TDs.
With Seattle coming off a tough loss on the road at Cincinnati, and Carolina coming in well rested off their bye week, I expect to see another close game between these two teams.
Take CAR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-04-15 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Denver Broncos -6.5 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-105 |
132 h 15 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
After running for 260 yards and two TDs in consecutive home wins, Adrian Peterson comes into this week's game at Denver surrounded by plenty of hype. Peterson poured a little gas on the fire by telling reporters he felt like he could have played in the NFL as a junior in high school. Well I think the Broncos defense is going to make him look like a high school junior this week.
Here is what I said about Denver before Week 1: "I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game. I also believe they will have one of the league's best defenses with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos had a whopping 20 sacks on opposing quarterbacks this pre-season." So far Denver's defense has lived up to expectations, ranking 1st overall in the NFL in total defense, limiting opponents to 16.3 points per game. They are allowing an average of just 83 rushing yards per game, and they have 11 sacks during a 3-0 start.
Peyton Manning might be on the downside of his career, but the Hall of Famer still managed to complete 31-of-42 passes for 324 yards and two TDs on the road in Detroit last week. Teddy Bridgewater on the other hand has thrown more INTs (2) than TDs (1). He threw for just 121 yards and an INT on 12-of-23 passing at home against the Chargers last week.
The only thing Denver hasn't done well this year is run the ball, and they might be able to break out at home today against the Vikings 25th ranked run defense.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-04-15 |
St Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals -6.5 |
Top |
24-22 |
Loss |
-123 |
98 h 2 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are big favorite at home to division rivals St. Louis on Sunday, and at first glance it might look like too many points. I think the Cardinals are for real though, and if they play anything like they have in the first three week, I don't think this game will be all that close. Their defense picked off Colin Kaepernick four times and sacked him twice, while holding the 49ers to a total of 170 yards in a 47-7 blowout win last Sunday. The Rams have dropped two in a row since upsetting the Seahawks in Week 1, and Nick Foles has struggled in those games. The former Eagle threw for 150 yards and a TD on 17-of-32 passing in a loss at Washington in his only start on the road this season. The Cardinals struggled after they lost Carson Palmer in a game against the Rams last year, but the veteran says he's in the best shape of his life, and his numbers back that up. He's thrown for 803 yards with nine TDs and two picks, helping the Cardinals go 3-0 and lead the NFL in scoring. Arizona has won 14 of it's last 16 home games with Palmer at quarterback. The Rams aren't a great road team, and they've struggled against Arizona failing to cover in four straight, and six of their last eight at Glendale. Take Arizona. GL, Jesse Schule
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09-27-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals -6 |
Top |
7-47 |
Win
|
100 |
159 h 46 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The San Francisco 49ers had a rough off-season, losing several key players as well as their head coach. They proved in Week 1 that they can still be competitive, beating the Vikings by a score of 20-3 at home. They looked a lot more like the team everyone expected them to be when they lost 43-18 to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It won't get an easier this week, facing an Arizona team that owns on of the league's best defenses.
San Francisco needs to run the ball to be successful, and the Cardinals defense specializes in stopping the run. Two years ago Arizona boasted the league's #1 run defense allowing opponents to average just 84 yards per game. They took a step back last year due to injuries, but this season they're allowing an average of just 81 yards during a 2-0 start.
Carson Palmer is back healthy, and he's tied with Tom Brady for the league lead with seven TD passes. I don't give Colin Kaepernick a "Snowball's Chance in Hell" of keeping up with Palmer in a shootout.
The 49ers lost 24-13 at Arizona last year, and they only managed 82 yards on 23 rushing attempts. Palmer didn't even play in that game, but Drew Stanton threw for 244 yards and a pair of TDs, while Kaepernick found the endzone just once.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-20-15 |
Arizona Cardinals -1 v. Chicago Bears |
Top |
48-23 |
Win
|
100 |
156 h 32 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals were one of the NFL's best teams last season, until Carson Palmer went down with an injury. The Cardinals won eight of their first nine games, and went into Week 10 with the league's top rated defense. "We're as talented as anybody in this league," Palmer said. "I think if you're to put our roster up against anybody's roster and just kind of look at all the intangibles of each guy and the backups, I would put our roster up against everybody." I have to agree with the veteran quarterback. This team is loaded with talent and depth, and should be a contender in the NFC West.
They certainly looked the part in Week 1, defeating the Saints by a score of 31-19. Palmer threw for 307 yards and three TDs on 19-of-32 passing. The defense did a good job against last year's passing leader, limiting Drew Brees to one TD and an INT.
The Bears lost to the Packers in Week 1, and that was quite a predictable result. Jay Cutler completed 50 percent of his passes for 225 yards with a TD and an INT. The Bears had success with the running game last week, but it could be a lot more difficult to pick up yards on the ground against the Cardinals, who only gave up 54 rushing yards last week.
Take Arizona.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-20-15 |
New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills |
Top |
40-32 |
Loss |
-104 |
146 h 12 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills didn't just upset the heavily favored Colts in Week 1, they demolished Indianapolis by a score of 27-14. Their defense terrorized Andrew Luck, forcing him into two interceptions, and sacking him twice. Rookie quarterback Tyrod Taylor was extremely efficient, throwing for 195 yards and a TD on 14-of-19 passing. Karlos Williams led the team with 55 yards and a TD on just six carries. He might be asked to do more this week as Shady McCoy is a little banged up.
The Patriots had all sorts of defensive issues in their win over the Steelers, and they let a 32 year old backup running back go for 127 yards on 21 carries. The fact of the matter is, if the Steelers didn't continue to shoot themselves in the foot, they should have had a chance to win that game. Without Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats secondary really struggled. Antonio Brown caught nine passes for 133 yards and a TD.
Brady had a big game, but playing on the road in Buffalo is a whole different monster in comparison to picking apart the Steelers at home. The lack of a running game didn't hurt them in Week 1, but a one-dimensional offense could be in trouble on the road against one of the NFL's best defenses.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-20-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 |
Top |
18-43 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots had all sorts of defensive issues in their win over the Steelers, and they let a 32 year old backup running back go for 127 yards on 21 carries. The fact of the matter is, if the Steelers didn't continue to shoot themselves in the foot, they should have had a chance to win that game. Without Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats secondary really struggled. Antonio Brown caught nine passes for 133 yards and a TD. The Niners come in to Pittsburgh on short rest after a Monday night game, while the Steelers have had plenty of time to plan and prepare since Thursday. This advantage should be even more evident in the first half, and I expect Pittsburgh to run up the score before halftime. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-13-15 |
NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -6 |
Top |
26-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 11 m |
Show
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This is a 5* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
In 2014, Eli Manning nearly doubled his TD total, while reducing the number of interceptions thrown to nearly 50% from the previous season. Will he be able to do it again in 2015, that's something that remains to be seen. It starts with the offensive line, which has been a sore spot in recent seasons. This unit is still a big question mark, coming into the season banged up, lacking depth. The Giants ranked 29th in the NFL in total defense last year, and that cost coordinator Perry Fewell his job. They turn to a familiar face in 2015, with Steve Spagnuolo coming back. His job may be a lot more difficult after Jason Pierre-Paul lost a finger in a fireworks accident this summer. When all is said and done, I don't trust Eli Manning, and I think Odell Beckham Jr. is going to have a tough time living up to all the hype.
The Cowboys lost the NFL's leading rusher when DeMarco Murray bolted to Philly, and that has people wondering how much the Cowboys are going to miss him. I think a better question is how much is Murray going to miss running behind the best offensive line in the NFL? There's no doubt in my mind that Joseph Randle and the rest of the Cowboy's deep backfield will thrive this season.
The Giants have lost four straight to the Cowboys, and I don't like their chances on the road here without Victor Cruz and Jason Pierre-Paul.
Take Dallas.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 v. New England Patriots |
Top |
21-28 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Patriots are defending Super Bowl champions, and they open the 2015 season at home versus Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady has won his appeal against the NFL, and his suspension was overturned, allowing him to start here in Week 1.
So everything is fine and dandy in New England? Well .. not exactly. Tom Brady has had a rough pre-season, on and off the field. Let's not worry about his personal life, and all the rumors regarding his marriage, and just focus on the fact that he didn't play very well at all in limited action in three pre-season games. Then you take a look at New England's offense without Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount, and possibly Julian Edelman, it would be no surprise to see the 38 year old struggle here in Week 1.
The Steelers aren't anywhere near full strength either, with Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant serving suspensions, and starting center Maurkice Pouncey sidlined with a broken ankle. Unlike New England though, they have decent backups at running back with Dri Archer and DeAngelo Williams. They also have more depth at wide receiver, with Markus Wheaton and Antonio Brown.
I think Pittsburgh's offense will be good enough to keep this game close.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-18-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -6 |
Top |
7-45 |
Win
|
100 |
86 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots.
The Patriots host the Colts in the AFC Championship Game Sunday, and we see a high total in a game that is expected to be a shootout. The Colts though have allowed an average of just 11.5 points in back to back playoff wins.
The Patriots needed to rally to come from behind and beat the Ravens last week, winning by a score of 35-31. I expect to see a much better effort from the Pats this week, against a Colts team that they have owned in recent seasons.
New England has won five straight in this series, covering the points in each of the last three. We saw the Patriots lean heavily on the running game when these teams met in last year's playoffs. LaGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four TDs in that game, and he's back in New England after playing for Pittsburgh for most of the season. The Pats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games versus an opponent with a winning record.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-11-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 |
Top |
24-13 |
Loss |
-100 |
57 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning has thrown twice as many INTS (6) as he has TDs (3) over his last three starts. Denver though has won three of those games, including the season finale against Oakland. It appears that the Broncos have got their running game going in time for the playoffs, and we can expect them to lean heavily on the run here on Sunday. The Colts didn't impress at home against Bengals last week, and a similar effort here against the Broncos won't get it done. Watching the game, one thing that stood out to me was just how balls were dropped by the Indy receivers. This is a not a new issue for the Colts, as they led the league in drops during the regular season. Denver's defense is healthier than it has been for most of the season, and I expect them to make life very tough for Andrew Luck. The Broncos have forced 13 turnovers while winning five of their last six games, and they finished 8-0 at home outscoring the opposition by more than 14 points in those games. These teams met in Week 1, and Denver took a 17 point lead into the locker room at the half. We could see a more conservative approach here in the playoffs, but I think we'll see the same team prevail. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-11-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers -6.5 |
Top |
21-26 |
Loss |
-100 |
155 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys will play the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, despite the fact that many feel they didn't deserve to beat the Lions last week. The Cowboys come from behind victory was aided by bad calls, non calls, and reversed calls that allowed them to erase a 14 point deficit. It wasn't pretty for the Cowboys, as Tony Romo was sacked a season high six times, Dex Bryant was held to three catches for 48 yards and DeMarco Murray ran for just 75 yards on 19 carries. Now they face a Packers team that boasts an undefeated 8-0 home record, and the forecast is calling for freezing cold temperatures with wind and snow. Aaron Rogers is dealing with a calf injury, but that didn't stop him from leading the Packers to a 30-20 win over Detroit two weeks ago, throwing for a pair of TDs and running in another. He's thrown 25 TD passes and NO interceptions at home this season, and hasn't thrown an INT at home since midway through the 2012 season. Take GB. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-10-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks -11 |
Top |
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 2-Team (7-point) teaser with Seattle + Under.
The Carolina Panthers are coming off a home win over Arizona on Wildcard Weekend, and they held the Cardinals to a record low 78 total yards. It's not going to be so easy on the road at Seattle this week though, facing a Seattle offense that leads the NFL in rushing averaging 172 yards per game.
The Seahawks come in as winners of six straight, all six of those wins coming by double digits. Their #1 ranked defense has allowed opponents to score an average of just 6.5 points in those games. Five of those six games fell short of the total, and the only exception was a 35-6 win at Arizona.
The Seahawks have won four straight versus Cam Newton and the Panthers since 2010, and they covered the spread in three of those four contests. Three of those games went under, with the only exception being Seattle's 31-14 win at home in December of 2010.
Cam Newton threw for 172 yards with no TDs on 12-of-22 passing in the home loss to Seattle in October of this season.
Take SEA+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-04-15 |
Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys |
Top |
20-24 |
Win
|
100 |
123 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions.
The Lions QB Matthew Stafford has a reputation as a guy who doesn’t perform well on the road, but last week he threw for 217 yards and three TDs in a snow storm at Green Bay. He has a far more favorable matchup against Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys defense is their Achilles Heel, but they’ve been so successful running the ball that they’ve been able to keep their defense off the field. That could prove more challenging against the NFL’s #1 ranked run defense, and #2 ranked overall defense. I expect Stafford and the Lions to have plenty of opportunities on offense this week.
Tony Romo has emerged as an MVP candidate, and it seems that everyone has forgotten all the big game meltdowns in past seasons. He's going to have his work cut out for him this week, up against Ndamukong Suh and a Lions defense that had 20 INTs during the season (3rd in the NFL).
Megatron has had an off year, but he’s still the best receiver in the league, and he appears to be reasonably healthy heading into this Wild Card game. This looks like a favorable matchup, as Dallas has really struggled against the pass (26h in the NFL). We saw DeSean Jackson burn the Cowboys secondary for an 80 yard strike last week.
I think the Lions will find enough holes in this shaky Dallas defense to keep this game close.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-04-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 |
Top |
10-26 |
Win
|
100 |
120 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Cincinnati Bengals come limping into Indianapolis without their two best receivers, and a starting quarterback that has thrown more than his fair share of interceptions in recent weeks. Dalton was picked off twice in the loss to the Steelers last week, and A.J. Green suffered a concussion that will keep him out of today's game versus the Colts.
TE Jermaine Gresham is also banged up with a sore back, and several players are recovering from a flu bug that forced the team to wear masks on their flight to Pittsburgh last week.
The Bengals were shutout in a 27-0 loss at Indianapolis in October, and Andy Dalton was brutal in that game. He threw for just 126 yards on 18-of-38 passing.
The Colts closed out the season with a win at Tennessee, and their defense limited the Titans to just 192 total yards. It's going to be tough for the Bengals to win on the road with a depleted lineup against the leagues top passing offense. Cincinnati hasn't had much luck stopping opposing QBs this season, ranking 20th in the NFL against the pass, allowing 243 yards per game.
Take IND.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-03-15 |
Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Carolina Panthers |
Top |
16-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
99 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. The Carolina Panthers get a home game in the playoffs even though they finished with a losing record during the regular season. Carolina comes in hot, winning their final four games. They are asked to cover quite a few points here against the Cardinals, and I think it's not very realistic to expect them to blowout a team with an elite defense. Only one of the Panthers seven wins this year came against a team with a winning record, and their last two home wins came in games decided by four points or less (to Tampa and Cleveland). The Cardinals were in line to finish first in the NFC West until they lost both their starting QB Carson Palmer, and backup Drew Stanton. Nobody seems to have much faith in third stringer Ryan Lindley, who threw for 316 yards and a pair of TDs last week in a 20-17 loss to San Francisco. What I find the most interesting about this matchup, is the Cardinals defense versus a run happy Carolina offense. The Panthers have found a lot of running room against weak opposition in the NFC South, but things might be a lot tougher here on Saturday. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-28-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
89 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bengals finally won in prime time, upsetting the Broncos on Monday Night Football last week. Now they play the Steelers on Sunday night on short rest in their final game of the regular season.
While beating the Broncos is an impressive result, it's important to put that game into perspective. They got plenty of help with Peyton Manning throwing four picks, helping them make up for the fact that Denver had more total yards (385-353).
Andy Dalton certainly didn't impress, throwing for 146 yards with two TDs and an INT on 17-of-26 passing. It was Jeremy Hill and the Cincy running game that was responsible for most of the offense, but playing on the road on short rest against a Steelers team that has been very tough against the run isn't going to be easy.
Ben Roethlisberger for 350 yards and three TDs in a 42-21 win at Cincy a few weeks ago, and there is every reason to expect him to deliver a repeat performance here at home in a must win game.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-14 |
Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons -3.5 |
Top |
34-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
125 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons are coming off a big win on the road at New Orleans, and they can clinch the NFC South with a win at home over Carolina on Sunday. The defense has really tightened up, and last week against the Saints they allowed just 57 rushing yards, and picked off Drew Brees twice.
The Panthers are coming off back to back home wins over Tampa and Cleveland. Both those games were close, and Carolina didn't really impress offensively against inferior opposition. Cam Newton threw for 292 yards in a home loss to the Falcons earlier this season, but he was also picked off twice in that game.
It's likely going to be difficult for the Panthers to keep up with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, who have been lighting up the opposition all year long. Ryan threw for 322 yards on 30-of-40 passing in the win over the Saints, and he's thrown for more than 300 yards in four straight.
At home in the dome, the Falcons are still a very tough team to beat, especially when Julio Jones is healthy. Remember they beat the Bucs 56-14 here in Week 2, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is another blowout home win for Atlanta.
Take ATL.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-28-14 |
Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers -7 |
Top |
20-30 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NFL play on the Green Bay #Packers.
It's winner takes all in the NFC North when the Packers host the Lions at Lambeau on Sunday. The Lions come in riding a four game winning streak, although they've failed to score more than 20 points in their last two. That's not going to cut it here in Green Bay, as the Packers have scored an average of 41 points while winning all seven of their home games this season.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 36 TDs and just five INTs this season, and 23 of those touchdown passes have come in his seven home games. He hasn't thrown an interception at home since the 2012 season.
Lions QB Matthew Stafford has trended the other way on the road, with a rating of 78.9, and no touchdowns and four INTs in his last three starts outside the dome in Detroit.
Detroit will be without starting center Dominic Raiola, who serves a suspension for stomping on Bears defensive tackle Ego Ferguson. Stafford was sacked four times last week in Chicago, and he could find himself running for his life with Clay Matthews in hot pursuit.
I like Green Bay to win big at home.
Take GB,
GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-22-14 |
Denver Broncos -3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
Top |
28-37 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos come into Cincy tonight looking for a fifth consecutive win, and I like their chances against a pretty average Bengals team. Peyton Manning has played pretty poorly in his last three games, battling lingering injuries and illness. Still Denver has leaned on it's defense and running game in wins over Kansas City, Buffalo and San Diego.
I wouldn't count on Manning stinking it up again here this week, as he's had time to rest up and prepare for a Bengals defense that isn't nearly as tough as the three previous opponents that he struggled against.
If I were a Bengals fan, I'd be pretty concerned about Andy Dalton going up against this Denver defense. Dalton only threw for 117 yards on 14-of-24 passing in last week's win over Cleveland, and he's been picked off five times in his last four starts. Denver has a ferocious pass rush and some ball hawks in the secondary, and I expect to see them terrorize the Bengals QB tonight.
Cincy has been very successful running the ball lately, but Denver owns the league's #2 run defense, allowing an average of just 71.6 rushing yards per game. You add it all up, and it doesn't look pretty for the home team.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-21-14 |
Seattle Seahawks -8 v. Arizona Cardinals |
Top |
35-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks defense is back! The Legion of Boom has terrorized the opposition over the last four weeks, surrendering just 27 total points. It all started with a 19-3 win over the Cardinals on November 23. Arizona has home field advantage this time around, but they also need to rely on their third string quarterback. Ryan Lindley was 4-of-10 for 30 yards in relief of Drew Stanton last week, and he's never thrown at TD pass in the NFL. He's also thrown seven interceptions in his four career starts. In situations like this, normally a team would lean on the running game in an attempt to take some pressure off an inexperienced QB. That's an unlikely solution for the Cardinals, who rank near the bottom in the NFL in rushing yards. Seattle boasts one of the league's top run defenses, allowing just 88.1 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals only managed 64 yards on 20 carries in the loss at Seattle, but 23 of those were courtesy of the injured Drew Stanton. Richard Sherman has six interceptions in his last six meetings with Arizona, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he adds to that total tonight. Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-21-14 |
NY Giants v. St. Louis Rams -4.5 |
Top |
37-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
136 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Rams were red hot heading into last Thursday's home game against Arizona, but they fell by a score of 12-6 to the 11-3 Cardinals. They've since had 10 days to recover, and prepare a game plan for a home meeting with the Giants this Sunday.
The St. Louis defense has been nothing short of dominant during the second half of the season, and that was the case again last week against the Cardinals. They knocked Arizona QB Drew Stanton out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and their ferocious pass rush should cause all sorts of problems for Eli Manning today.
The Giants have big problems defending the run, allowing over 135 yards rushing per game. New York is coming off consecutive victories, but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the league (Washington and Tennessee). The Rams boast an elite defense, and this game is a whole different kettle of fish.
This Giants team is 2-5 on the road, and four of those five losses came in games decided by double digits.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-21-14 |
Detroit Lions -4.5 v. Chicago Bears |
Top |
20-14 |
Win
|
100 |
134 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions. The Lions are in a dog fight with Green Bay for first place in the NFC North, and they aren't going to pull any punches in Chicago against a Bears team that has lost three straight by double digits. The Bears have decided to bench Jay Cutler, but throwing an inexperienced Jimmy Clausen into the fire against one of the league's top defenses might not help matters. The Lions rank 1st overall against the run, allowing opponents to average just 63.8 yards per game on the ground. They also have a ferocious pass rush, with 39 sacks (6th in the NFL). Forget about all Chicago's injuries, their terrible defensive numbers and the fact that they lost to the Lions 34-17 just a few weeks ago. The Bears biggest problem is the fact that the players and the coaching staff are not on the same page. Head coach Marc Trestman has lost the support of his players, as well as his assistants, and it looks as if several players have given up, and are just going through the motions. There doesn't appear to be any fight left in this Bears team, and I expect to see another blowout in Chicago. Take DET. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-21-14 |
Minnesota Vikings +7.5 v. Miami Dolphins |
Top |
35-37 |
Win
|
100 |
99 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The 7-7 Dolphins will host the 6-8 Vikings this Sunday, and the Fish are a big favorite at home. Miami is coming off consecutive losses, and it's home record of 3-3 isn't all that impressive. The Vikings went into Detroit last week and came very close to pulling off the upset in a 16-14 loss to the Lions. In fact the Vikes are 4-4 in their last eight games, and three of those four losses have come in games decided by three points or less.
Teddy Bridgewater has been getting better as the season progresses, and he's put together a very impressive rookie campaign. He's completed better than 70% of his pass attempts for 762 yards and five TDs over his last three starts. Ryan Tannehill has thrown more picks (3) than he has TDs (2) over his last three starts.
Miami might struggle offensively against a Minnesota defense that held Detroit to a season low 233 yards last Sunday. The Dolphins have averaged just 14 points over their last three games, and I don't think they should be asked to cover a big spread here against a pretty decent Minnesota team.
Take MINNY.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-14-14 |
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
Top |
38-27 |
Win
|
100 |
163 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. The NFC East is up for grabs tonight in Philadelphia, as the Eagles will host the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles crushed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, but tonight's game is a completely different situation.
The Cowboys were playing on short rest in the last meeting, a situation that is particularly tough with a veteran QB playing through injuries, and a back that leads the league in rushing, and has a heavy workload.
Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray should be in better shape here in Philly tonight, as the Cowboys last played 10 days ago at Chicago, beating the Bears by a score of 41-28.
This time it could be the Eagles that are worse for wear, coming off a hard fought loss at home to the Seahawks last Sunday.
Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis says it best: "That game on Thanksgiving means nothing to this game right now,"
"Every team that has beat us so far this year, we'd love to have another shot at, because we believe if we play better we can beat anybody. "And they believe the same thing coming into this game." With the Cowboys on the right side of a key number, I like Dallas as a dog. Take DAL. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-14-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
Top |
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks will host the Niners in Seattle this Sunday, but this matchup doesn't come with as much hype as it had in previous seasons. These two teams were expected to be battling for first place in the NFC West, but San Francisco is now in danger of missing the playoffs all together.
The Seahawks however have turned things around after a rough start, and they have their destiny in their own hands. If Seattle wins it's final three games, it will clinch another division title. The Hawks have won three straight, and one of those games was a 19-3 victory at San Francisco. Colin Kaepernick was sacked four times, throwing a pair of interceptions and completing just 16-of-29 pass attempts for 121 yards.
He's not going to find it any easier this week, as he has really struggled in previous trips to the Pacific Northwest. The Niners have been blown out in Seattle in each of the last two seasons, and Kaepernick has thrown four picks and just one TD in those games.
The last four meetings between these two teams have seen the total go under, and Seattle has won three of those games. The total for today's game is much lower than it was in any of those previous contests, and this 49ers team is not nearly as good as it was in previous seasons.
Seattle should be able to run up the score a little on this beat up defense of San Francisco, as injuries have been piling up for the Niners.
Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-14-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -7 |
Top |
13-41 |
Win
|
100 |
155 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots.
New England can clinch another division title with a win over the Miami Dolphins Sunday, and they look to extend a 15-game winning streak at Foxboro. The Pats are coming off consecutive home wins by a 20+ point margin, over teams that each have a better record than Miami. They beat the Broncos 43-21, and they defeated the Detroit Lions by a score of 34-9.
There is a revenge factor here as well, as the Dolphins rallied to beat New England in Miami in Week 1. The Dolphins have lost three of their last five, and two of their last three on the road. During that span, they beat the Bills in a game that was influenced by a phantom pass interference call, and escaped from New York with a win over the Jets in a game they trailed right up until the final minutes of the game.
The Pats have outscored Miami 51-17 winning their last two home meetings with the Dolphins, and New England is 7-0 ATS in it's last seven home games versus a team with a winning record.
The Dolphins defense has allowed 407.7 yards per game over their last three, and we can't expect them to improve on those numbers here at Foxboro.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-14-14 |
Oakland Raiders +11.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs |
Top |
13-31 |
Loss |
-125 |
153 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Oakland Raiders.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a double digit favorite this week against the Raiders, a team that they lost to in Oakland just a few weeks ago. That was the Raider first win of the season, and Oakland has gone 1-1 since. Last week they upset the San Francisco 49ers, winning 24-23.
The Chiefs haven't shown any indication that they deserve to be such a heavy favorite here, as they haven't been able to stop the run at all in recent games. They've allowed third string running backs to go over 100 yards in three straight losses. Oakland's Latavius Murray only needed four carries to gain 112 yards and two TDs in the win over Kansas City on November 20. Denver's C.J. Anderson and Arizona's Kerwynn Williams have shredded them the last two weeks.
Murray did not play in Oakland's ugly loss at St. Louis, but he returned last week running for 76 yards on 23 carries in the win over the 49ers. You can expect him to go over 100 again against a much weaker Chiefs run defense.
Oakland's defense looked pretty good last week against the run, stuffing Frank Gore limiting him to just 63 yards. I like the Raiders to hang on and cover an inflated spread here in KC.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-08-14 |
Atlanta Falcons v. Green Bay Packers -11 |
Top |
37-43 |
Loss |
-115 |
180 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
Most of the time, betting on sports is a lot more difficult than it looks. Sometimes though, the obvious choice is the correct choice, and the public lays a beating on the bookmakers. I think tonight's game in Green Bay will prove to be a classic example of a "no brainer".
Never mind the fact that the Packers are undefeated at home (6-0), while Atlanta is just 2-4 on the road. The Falcons are a dome team, playing outdoors on the road on grass in December. Their two road wins came at Carolina and Tampa Bay, not exactly comparable to the bitter cold Wisconsin weather they are sure to see at Lambeau.
The Packers have crushed the opposition at home this year, winning all six of their games by an average margin of over 23 points. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 32 TDs and just three INTs this season, and 20 of those touchdown passes have come in his six home games. He hasn't thrown an interception at home since the 2012 season.
The Falcons pass defense ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing over 284 passing yards per game so far. Rodgers and the Packers are likely looking at another blowout win at Lambeau.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-07-14 |
Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
Top |
24-14 |
Win
|
100 |
160 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is putting the rest of the league on notice.. The Legion of Boom is back! The Seahawks are coming off consecutve dominant victories, allowing a total of six points in those games. It's no coincidence that they've recently got a few key players back on defense, and they are starting to look as dominant as they did last year. The Eagles are still undefeated at home, and they've won 10 in row in Philly dating back to last season. Before you get too exited about the home field advantage, consider that they lost 10 straight home games between 2012 and the middle of last season.
Philly is coming off back to back wins over Tennessee and Dallas, but they were crushed in Green Bay by the packers three weeks ago. This Seattle team will be the best they've seen so far, and I don't think playing at home is going to make much difference.
Even though the Eagles have won three of four with Sanchez as a starter, he's still thrown as many interceptions as he has TDs in his last three starts.
Russell Wilson has been great for the Seahawks all year, and he's one of the best in the business at taking care of the football. He completed 15-of-22 attempts for 236 yards and a TD last week on the road at San Francisco.
Success on the road is nothing new for Seattle, as they have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 road games versus teams with a winning record.
Take SEA. GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-07-14 |
Buffalo Bills v. Denver Broncos -9 |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
154 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos.
Denver returns home after a dominant display in Kansas City, spanking the Chiefs by a score of 29-16. The Broncos host Buffalo today, and I find it hard to imagine that the Bills can come into Mile High and compete.
Denver's offense has a new weapon, as rookie RB C.J. Anderson has picked up 335 yards and a TD in wins over Miami and Kansas City. He's thrived behind a rejuvenated offensive line, and the Chiefs only recorded one sack on Manning last Sunday. Manning has thrown 21 TD passes and just two INTs while leading the Broncos to a perfect 6-0 home record.
Buffalo's defense has been impressive against inferior opposition, but top tier QBs have exposed this secondary. Both the Chargers and Patriots beat the Bills by double digits in Buffalo. The Bills cornerbacks have also taken some untimely pass interference penalties, so don't be surprised to see flags flying in the Buffalo secondary today.
Denver could get back TE Julius Thomas back, and he leads the NFL with a dozen receiving TDs. The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-04-14 |
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 v. Chicago Bears |
Top |
41-28 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Both the Cowboys and the Bears are coming off ugly Thanksgiving day losses, but Dallas still has plenty to play for trailing the Eagles by just one game in the NFC East. The Bears on the other hand have already started thinking ahead to next year, as this season has turned into another lost cause.
Perhaps Chicago needs to seriously reconsider Jay Cutler as it's starting quarterback. He comes into tonight's game with 22 turnovers, the most of any player in the NFL. Cutler was picked off twice, throwing for 280 yards and a pair of TDs in a 34-17 loss to Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
DeMarco Murray is coming off his worst performance of the season, with just 73 yards and a TD on 20 carries in the loss to the Eagles. He was playing on short rest though, against a very good Philly defense. Tonight he faces a soft Chicago defense off a full week of rest, so expect another 100+ yard performance for the league's leading rusher.
The Bears have a losing record at home, while Dallas is 5-0 on the road. Chicago's defense ranks dead last in the NFL in points allowed, and I don't see them improving on those numbers against the Cowboys Thursday.
Take DAL.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-30-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 |
Top |
35-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
109 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Saints are coming off another terrible home loss, this time making Justin Forsett of the Ravens look like the reincarnation of Barry Saunders. Their inability to stop the run has plagued them all season, and now they face the league's second leading rusher on the road at Steel Town.
Le'Veon Bell went off for 204 yards and a TD on 33 carries in a win over the Titans on November 17th. He and the Steelers have since had time to rest and prepare for this home game versus the Saints.
The Saints haven't been any better against the pass, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 12 TD passes in his last two home games.
Drew Brees simply isn't the same quarterback on the road, and last season only 12 of his 39 TD passes came away from home. Jimmy Graham has struggled all year playing through injuries, and the Saints offense simply hasn't been able to get off the ground.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-30-14 |
San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Baltimore Ravens |
Top |
34-33 |
Win
|
100 |
109 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers. The Baltimore Ravens looked pretty good in a win on the road over New Orleans last week, but I think they are getting perhaps a little too much credit for exposing a very weak Saints run defense. The Ravens host the Chargers on Sunday, and they aren't likely to find as much success on the ground against a solid San Diego defense.
The Chargers did a good job stopping Tre Mason and the Rams last week, limiting St. Louis to 107 yards on 24 carries. They won that game by a score of 27-24, holding off a late rally by the Rams.
Ryan Matthews is back for San Diego, and he had a big game, running for 105 yards and a TD on 12 carries. The Chargers might be more successful with Philip Rivers passing the ball though, and Baltimore's secondary has really struggled. The Ravens rank 29th in the league allowing over 264 yards per game in the air.
Chargers wideout Keenan Allen had 104 receiving yards and a TD in last week's win over the Rams, and I am expecting him to have another big game here in Baltimore.
Take SD.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-27-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Dallas Cowboys |
Top |
33-10 |
Win
|
112 |
12 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles and the Cowboys will battle it out on Thanksgiving Day, and the winner will walk away with sole possession of first place in the NFC East. The Eagles have been flying, other than an ugly loss on the road at Green Bay. We have to give them a mulligan for that, as everyone is getting blown out at Lambeau these days. Dallas though has been consistently inconsistent, and last week Eli Manning lit them up for 338 yards and three TDs. This Dallas defense has some issues, and I think we've seen the Cowboys hide a lot of those flaws by controlling the clock, and running the ball with DeMarco Murray. Mark Sanchez has for more than 300 yards in each of his starts so far, and he bounced back last week after looking pretty bad in Green Bay. I think the Eagles can win this game outright, but I like getting them as a dog here in a game that could easily be decided by three points or less.
Take PHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-23-14 |
St. Louis Rams +6 v. San Diego Chargers |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
161 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 8* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Chargers went into their bye week off three straight losses, and they came out last week and struggled to beat the Oakland Raiders by a score of 13-6. A date with the Rams is the last thing San Diego needs right now, St. Louis has beaten Denver, Seattle and San Francisco during a five game stretch where they are 3-2.
St. Louis has sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times over the last four weeks, and six of those belong to Robert Quinn, who finished second in the league with 19 sacks last season.
That's a scary thought for Phillip Rivers, who has really struggled lately, and there were rumors that he was nursing a rib injury. He threw for 193 yards and a TD on 22-of-34 passing last week against Oakland, and the Rams are likely to be a lot tougher on him.
Rookie RB Tre Mason has also coming off a career high 113 yards on 29 carries in the win over Denver. This Rams team is all fired up, and nobody wants to be playing St. Louis right now.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-23-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -1 |
Top |
22-13 |
Loss |
-125 |
158 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
Ryan Mallet came in to lead the Texans to a victory on the road in Cleveland in his debut as a starter last week, and he's back under center in Houston today as the Texans host the Bengals. Cincinnati is coming off a stunning upset win at New Orleans, just a week after an embarrassing home loss to Cleveland.
Mallet was solid in the win over the Browns, throwing for 211 yards, a pair of TDs and one INT. Houston's defense completely shut down the Cleveland running game, limiting them to a total of 58 yards on 24 carries.
The Texans lead the league in forced turnovers, and that doesn't bode well for Andy Dalton and the Bengals, who have been known to struggle on the road.
Rookie RB Alfred Blue shredded a weak Browns defense for 156 yards on a record 36 carries last week, and if Arian Foster can't go today, he should be in for another big day against a Bengals defense that also struggles to stop the run. The Bengals rank 28th in the NFL allowing opponents to average over 136 yards per game.
Take HOU.
GL, Jesse Schuke
|
11-23-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Chicago Bears -5.5 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
158 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Bears.
The Bears bounced back from back to back blowout losses at New England and Green Bay with a solid home win over the Vikings last week. They host Tampa this week, and I'm expecting Chicago to build on a little momentum here at home.
The Bucs are just 2-7, and they had lost five straight before winning at Washington last week. Tampa has real problems defending the pass, ranking 30th in the NFL allowing over 266 passing yards per game. Jay Cutler should have a field day here at home.
Matt Forte could also be in for a big day, as he goes up a Bucs defense that is allowing an average of 118 rushing yards per game (22nd in the NFL). Forte is third in the league in rushing behind DeMarco Murray and Le'Veon Bell. He ran for 117 yards and picked up 58 more with six receptions against the Vikes.
Both these teams have struggled on defense, but Chicago has more weapons, and they have home field. This should be a comfortable win for the Bears.
Take CHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-23-14 |
Tennessee Titans +12.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
Top |
24-43 |
Loss |
-130 |
74 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Tennessee Titans.
The Eagles are undefeated at home this year, boasting a 5-0 record in at Lincoln Financial Field. They have backup Mark Sanchez under center with starter Nick Foles sidelined by an injury. The jury is still out on Sanchez, who looked great against Carolina, but then stunk it up in a loss to the Packers last week.
What to expect from Sanchez this week? Probably somewhere in the middle, an average performance at best. He's been picked off four times over the last three weeks, throwing for six TDs.
The Titans defense hasn't been that bad against the pass, ranking 9th in the NFL allowing opponents to average just 226 yards per game in the air. They pushed the Steelers to the brink on Monday night, coming up just short in a 27-24 loss.
Zack Mettenberger delivered another solid performance, throwing for 263 yards, a pair of TDs and an INT. While he hasn't picked up a win yet, he has completed better than 60% of his passes with five TDs in three starts. Those kind of numbers look pretty good with the Titans getting a double digit cushion.
Take TEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-16-14 |
New England Patriots +3 v. Indianapolis Colts |
Top |
42-20 |
Win
|
100 |
91 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are coming off a bye week, taking a well deserved break after rattling off five straight wins. Their latest win was the most impressive of the bunch, knocking off Peyton Manning and the Broncos in a 43-21 blowout. Manning threw for 438 yards, but he was picked off twice, with just two TDs.
The Colts beat up on the Giants last week, but who doesn't beat the Giants these days. It was just two weeks ago that they were lit up in Pittsburgh in a 51-34 loss. Ben Roethlisberger threw for a whopping 522 yards and six TDs in that game.
There is no doubt that this is a big game with massive playoff implications. Exactly the type of game where Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are normally at their best. The same can't be said for Andrew Luck, who hasn't proven that he can handle the pressure when it matters the most.
Luck is 1-2 in his three post-season starts, with six TDs and eight INTs in those games. He's also 0-2 against Brady and Belichick, with a 51% completion percentage, and seven INTs in those losses.
Giving Belichick an extra week to prepare a game plan, I don't see how you can bet against the Pats getting points. Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-16-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers -5.5 |
Top |
20-53 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NFL play on the Green Bay #Packers.
The Eagles didn't miss a beat with backup Mark Sanchez taking over at quarterback for the injured Nick Foles, but a home game against an injury plagued Panthers team isn't quite the same as a road game at Green Bay.
The Packers have won four of their last five, and they are undefeated at home, winning all four games at Lambeau by at least seven points. Last week they smoked the Bears winning 55-14.
The Eagles have looked vulnerable on defense even during their winning streak, and Philly ranks 22nd in the NFL against the pass allowing over 250 yards per game. That stat is more alarming than it sounds, as their schedule isn't that impressive with wins over Jacksonville, Washington, St. Louis, NYG and Carolina.
Aaron Rogers has thrown for 570 yards and nine TDs in his last two home starts, and he hasn't thrown an INT at home since 2012. I simply can't see Mark Sanchez keeping up with this Packers offense.
Take GB
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-16-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
Top |
27-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
152 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints haven't quite been as invincible at home this season as we've seen them be in previous years. They lost to the 49ers last week, ending a 14 game home winning streak. This week's opponent should prove to be a lot easier for the Saints to handle, and I think we'll see another blowout in the Big Easy.
Andy Dalton is coming off the worst game of his career, throwing for 86 yards, no TDs and three INTs on 10-of-33 passing against the Browns. He now has more picks than he does touchdowns this season, and he's never had a lot of success on the road. He's thrown for just two TDs and six picks over his last four starts, with a league low completion percentage during that span.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, and 27 of those came at home. Jimmy Graham was on the receiving end of 16 of those TDs last season, and he had 10 receptions for 72 yards and a pair of TDs last week. With their superstar TE back near 100%, I can't see the Cincy defense stopping the Saints from lighting up the scoreboard.
The Bengals are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 road games, and this is a tough spot for a team that doesn't travel well.
Take NO.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-16-14 |
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 v. NY Giants |
Top |
16-10 |
Win
|
100 |
152 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco is coming off an impressive road win at New Orleans, ending a 14 game home win streak of the Saints. They got the running game going last week, racking up 144 yards and a pair of TDs. They should be looking at bigger numbers here in New York, facing a Giants defense that ranks dead last against the run, allowing opponents to average over 144 yards per game.
The Giants are coming off four straight losses, and they know there isn't a lot left to fight for this season. Injuries have taken their toll on this team, with Prince Amukamara the latest casualty in a decimated secondary. Victor Cruz is gone for the year, and RB Rashad Jenning has missed the last four games. He could come back this week, but it's not exactly a favorable matchup against a stout San Francisco defense.
The loss of Patrick Willis will hurt, but welcoming Aldon Smith back from suspension should soften the blow. San Francisco has had it's fair share of injuries on defense this year, but it hasn't stopped them from remaining among the NFL's elite. The Niners rank 5th overall against the run, and 7th against the pass. They have 11 interceptions, just three fewer than Arizona who lead the league with 14.
The Giants have lost four straight by double digits, and there's not a lot of reason to expect a better result this week.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-16-14 |
Houston Texans +3.5 v. Cleveland Browns |
Top |
23-7 |
Win
|
100 |
152 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Houston Texans. **This play has been downgraded to a 5* with the news that Arian Foster will not start**
The Texans have finally pulled the plug on the Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment, choosing to replace him with unproven backup Ryan Mallet. I'll take an unproven backup over a veteran that has proven to be ineffective anytime. This could be exactly what the Texans needed, as Fitzpatrick simply wasn't getting it done.
Cleveland is getting a lot of respect coming off three straight wins, but prior to that they actually lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't think the Browns are as good as their record would indicate, and I think they will struggle to contain a Houston team that is coming off a bye week. The Texans have had plenty of time to prepare for this game, and with Jadeveon Clowney healthy, their defense should create all kinds of trouble for the Browns.
Cleveland has been terrible at stopping the run, and I expect the Texans to come out and run the ball with authority. They shouldn't ask Mallet to be much more than a game manager, and a conservative game plan should be a good thing with Houston getting points.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-13-14 |
Buffalo Bills +6 v. Miami Dolphins |
Top |
9-22 |
Loss |
-115 |
60 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo lost a thriller at home last week to Kansas City, but I like their chances of bouncing back on the road tonight at Miami. Both teams are 5-4, but the Bills road record of 3-1 is better than Miami's home record of 2-2.
The Dolphins are a pretty big favorite given that their last four wins have come against opponents with a combined 9-28 record. Among the teams they have defeated include the 1-9 Jags and the 0-9 Raiders.
These two teams played earlier in the season at Buffalo, and the Bills defense dominated that game. They sacked Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill four times, and forced an INT. Tannehill is playing hurt, with shoulder and ankle injuries limiting his mobility. He was sacked three times in the loss at Detroit last week, and wasn't able to pick up any (zero) yards on the ground.
The Bills lead the NFL in sacks, and they could make life difficult for a Miami offensive line that is forced to mix and match to replace LT Brandon Albert. Keep in mind they have to figure this out on a short week, with limited time to practice.
Kyle Orton has thrown for 10 TDs and just three picks since winning the starting job, while Tannehill is 1-4 with a 67.0 passer rating in his career against Buffalo. He might not get a lot of help from the running game either, with an injured Lamar Miller in the backfield, going up against a stout Bills line.
Is Miami the favorite in this game? Really .. you gotta be sh###ing me! Take BUF,
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-10-14 |
Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 |
Top |
21-45 |
Win
|
100 |
188 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles will turn to backup QB Mark Sanchez as they host the Panthers on Monday Night Football. The 27 year old completed 15-of-22 attempts for 202 yards with two TDs in relief of Nick Foles last week, but he also threw a pair of interceptions.
Tonight's game is a golden opportunity for Sanchez, coming off a full week of practice with the starting offense, and taking on a struggling Carolina defense. The Panthers are coming off three straight losses, and they've allowed an average of 38 points over their last three road games.
Last season's leading rusher LeSean McCoy is starting to turn things around after a slow start to the season. He ran for 117 yards on 24 carries against the Texans last week, and he should put up big numbers against a Panthers defense than ranks 27th in the NFL against the run.
Cam Newton is coming off one of the worst games of his career, completing just 10-of-28 passes for 151 yards and an INT in the loss to the Saints.
Philadelphia is riding an eight game winning streak at home, and their last home game was a 27-0 shutout win over the Giants.
Take PHI.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-09-14 |
NY Giants v. Seattle Seahawks -9 |
Top |
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
137 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Last week the Seahawks beat the Raiders by a score of 30-24, but that game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate. Seattle led 24-3 at halftime, and Oakland rallied to make it close late.
The Giants might not have the fight left in them to battle back if they fall behind early. New York is coming off three straight double digit losses, losing several key players in the process. Already without their top wide receiver and starting running back, last week they lost corner Prince Amukamara, who leads the team with three interceptions.
Seattle is getting healthier, with several of it's players set to return from injury. The offensive line should get a boost with center Max Unger coming back, while Cam Chancellor and Jeremy Lane return on defense.
"It's a big turn," Carroll said. "It depends on how much good fortune we have. We'll have four guys back that weren't ready for us this week and we could have eight. It's amazing that it could be like that, but we're on the verge of getting some guys back."
Eli Manning threw for 156 yards on 18-of-31 passing with five picks in a 23-0 home loss to the Seahawks last year. Watching him play recently doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he can turn things around on the road in Seattle.
Expect the Hawks to win, and make a statement here today.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-09-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 |
Top |
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
158 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions. There is plenty of hype surrounding the Miami Dolphins, coming off three straight wins. Keep in mind that while their 37-0 home win over San Diego was impressive, previous wins came against Jacksonville and Chicago, who have a combined record of 4-13. The Lions are also coming off three straight wins, and they come off a bye week giving them extra time to prepare for today's home game versus Miami.
The Lions will get Calvin Johnson back this week, after he sat out the last three games with an ankle injury. Golden Tate has really stepped up, with 55 catches for 800 yards and three TDs. He could make the Dolphins pay if they leave him open to double up on Megatron.
Detroit's defense has been lights out this year, ranking in the top 5 both against the run as well as the pass. Opponents are averaging just 74 rushing yards per game, and if the Dolphins can't run, it should take a lot of wind out of their sails. It won't help matters that leading rusher Lamar Miller is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, and the word out of the Dolphins camp is that if he's able to play, he'll see limited snaps.
Ryan Tannehill has had a good run, but let's not forget that it was only a few weeks ago that his coach was talking about benching him. I don't it's realistic to expect him to come into Detroit and put up big numbers against a tough Lions defense.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-09-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs -1 v. Buffalo Bills |
Top |
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
158 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Buffalo Bills have won back to back games, neither of which should really impress anybody. They came from behind to cap an 80-yard game winning drive with the winning TD with 0:01 second remaining on the clock at home against the Vikes, and then a week later they took advantage of a struggling New York Jets team. Aided by six New York turnovers, they won by a score of 43-23.
The Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, and this should prove to be a giant step up in competition. The Chiefs own the NFL's top pass defense, allowing opponents to average fewer than 200 yards passing per game.
Buffalo's normally potent power running game will have to make due without C.J. Spiller, and Fred Jackson is questionable. Star wideout Sammy Watkins is also listed as questionable with a strained hammy.
Kyle Orton has been successful beating up on weak teams in recent weeks, but I remember seeing him get sacked five times in a home loss to the Patriots a few weeks back, and I think the Chiefs are going to terrorize him today. Kansas City is tied for 3rd in the NFL with 27 sacks.
Take KC.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-06-14 |
Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 |
Top |
24-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. Cleveland fans are excited about a 5-3 start, but I would caution that they may not be quite as good as that record indicates. They've only played three games on the road, losing two of the three. Their wins have come against the likes of Tampa Bay, Oakland and Tennessee, and their last road game was a loss to Jacksonville. Cincinnati isn't exactly a friendly place to visit, as the Bengals are undefeated in their last 14 home games. The Browns aren't exactly catching them a good time, with star wideout A.J. Green back from injury, and rookie running back Jeremy Hill coming off a season high 154 yards and two TDs against Jacksonville. The Bengals have covered six straight at home versus teams with a winning record, and they beat the Browns by 21 points in Cincinnati last year. Cleveland's leading rusher Ben Tate has run for a total of just 65 yards over his last three starts. The loss of their Pro Bowl center Alex Mack seems to have put a damper on this Cleveland running game. Take CINCY. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-02-14 |
Arizona Cardinals +4 v. Dallas Cowboys |
Top |
28-17 |
Win
|
100 |
60 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are definitely catching the Cowboys at a good time here in Dallas in Week 9. Carson Palmer is back under center for the visitors, and he threw for 329 yards and a pair of TDs in a win over Philly last Sunday. The Cowoboys don't yet know if Tony Romo will start, and even if he does he's not going to be anywhere close to 100% with a fractured back.
At least the Cowboys can count on their running game with DeMarco Murray though right? Maybe not, Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run, allowing opponents to average just 77 yards per game.
The Cardinals have only lost once this season, on the road at Denver with a third string QB playing almost the entire second half. This game wasn't going to easy even at the best of times for Dallas, and these are far from the best of times.
Backup QB Brandon Weeden has thrown 26 INTS in his career, two more than he has TDs.
Take ARZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-02-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Houston Texans +2 |
Top |
31-21 |
Loss |
-100 |
60 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans.
The Philadelphia Eagles will be looking to bounce back from a loss on the road at Arizona last week, but they might be catching Houston at a bad time. The Texans looked pretty good on the road at Tennessee last week, especially Arian Foster who ran for 151 yards and a pair of TDs on just 20 carries. Ryan Fitzpatrick finally managed to do a better job of protecting the football, throwing for 227 yards and a TD with not INTS.
Fitzpatrick isn't the only QB in this game that has struggled though, Nick Foles has thrown more picks than TDs over his past four starts. He threw for 411 yards against Arizona, but was picked off twice along with a pair of TDs. The Eagles have turned the ball over 12 times in their last four games, and Houston is ranked second in the NFL at forcing turnovers.
The Eagles have simply been making too many mistakes in this hurry up offense, and a lack of consistency in the running game has plagued them all year. Philly has lost 2-of-3 on the road this season, and I am not convinced they deserve to be a favorite here in Houston.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-02-14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Cincinnati Bengals -11 |
Top |
23-33 |
Loss |
-100 |
60 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are back in business coming off a win at home over Baltimore last Sunday. Their home winning streak now sits at 12-0-1 over their last 13 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals host the hapless Jags this week, and Jacksonville is 0-4 on the road, with an average margin of defeat over 17 points.
A.J. Green is officially listed as questionable, but it sure sounds like he is going to play: "A.J. has looked fine," coach Marvin Lewis said Friday. "He wants to play. He's telling everybody he wants to play. If everything stays the way it is, he'll play."
The Bengals defense picked of Joe Flacco twice last week, limiting the former Superbowl champ to 195 yards and zero TDs on 17-of-34 passing. They could make life very difficult for Blake Bortles, who leads the NFL with 12 INTs. He completed 17-of-31 attempts for 159 yards with a TD and three INTs in a win over Cleveland in his last start.
The Bengals are one of just two NFL teams that have more INTS (9) than passing TDs allowed (7). That doesn't bode well for the boys from the Sunshine State.
Take CINCY.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-27-14 |
Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys |
Top |
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
184 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Washington Redskins.
Washington comes into Dallas looking to win back to back games for the first time this season. The Cowboys though have won six in a row, and they are expected to cover a double digit spread tonight.
The Redskins are still without starting quarterback Robert Griffin, and last week they benched backup Kirk Cousins in favor of third stringer Colt McCoy. The 28 year old is in his fifth season in the NFL, with plenty of experience as a starter in Cleveland for two seasons. He looked pretty sharp coming in last week completing 11-of-12 passes for 128 yards and a TD.
Of course playing on the road at Dallas could prove to be a lot tougher than a home game against the Titans. These teams have a history of playing close games though, and the Redskins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight head to head meetings. Five of those games were decided by three points or less.
Washington is 0-3 on the road, but all three of those losses came in close games. The Redskins have covered the points in six of their last seven trips to Big "D", and I think the line for tonight's game is a little inflated for a rivalry match.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-26-14 |
Green Bay Packers +3 v. New Orleans Saints |
Top |
23-44 |
Loss |
-125 |
18 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
In recent seasons, the Saints have been money at home in situations such as this. In fact, they are 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS in their last twenty-three home games under Sean Payton. All the computer models, trends and data you can come up with would suggest that the Sainst are the best bet at home on Sunday night ... but that's not how I roll!
The Packers have won four straight, two of those on the road, and Aaron Rodgers is playing perhaps the best football of his career. Their defense has been great against the pass, but vulnerable against the run. Can New Orleans take advantage of a Green Bay's weak run defense? Maybe not, their leading rusher Khiry Robinson will not play, and Pierre Thomas is also sidelined by injury.
I've been hearing people say all week: "The Saints don't lose at home". My answer to that is simple! Their last two home games were against the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Buccaneers, and neither of those two victories were at all convincing. They trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter against the Bucs, and were fortunate to come back and win in overtime.
The bottom line is, you can take all those stats that show New Orleans as being invincible at home, and just toss them aside. This isn't that Saints team.
Take Green Bay.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-26-14 |
Indianapolis Colts -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers |
Top |
34-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
156 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have won five straight, and their defense has been dominant during that span. Last week they pitched a shutout against the Bengals, and at this point I think you have to say that this team is for real. The Steelers on the other hand were trailing 13-0 in the second quarter against the Texans on Monday, but scored 24 points in less than three minutes to take a 24-13 lead into the half. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about this Pittsburgh team, as they aren't going to be handed 24 points every week. We've already seen them lose at home to the Bucs, and the Cleveland Browns scored 58 points in their two games against this Steelers defense. The Steelers wins come over the Browns, Panthers, Jaguars and Texans, not one of those teams has a winning record. Now they face one of the league's elite quarterbacks on a short week. The Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night. Take INDY. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-26-14 |
St. Louis Rams v. Kansas City Chiefs -6 |
Top |
7-34 |
Win
|
100 |
153 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Cheifs. The Chiefs are coming off an upset win over the Chargers in San Diego, while the Rams shocked the Seahawks last Sunday. This is a let down spot for the Rams, who used smoke and mirrors to sneak past Seattle. Jeff Fisher went deep into the bag of tricks, with a couple of classics, helping St. Louis steal a win even though they were out-gained 463-272. Kansas City isn't likely to get caught napping today, and I expect them to pound away with the run. The Rams defense doesn't rank well in any category, but they have really struggled against the run, allowing opponents to average over 145 yards per game (28th). The Chiefs have one of the most potent ground attacks in the NFL, and they ran for 154 yards last week against a very good Chargers defense. Jamaal Charles was banged up early in the season, but he's starting to pick up steam heading into Week 8. Charles ran for 95 yards and a TD on just 22 carries last week. Kansas City has won and covered five straight versus the Rams, and I can't see this team hanging in there with this soft defense and a rookie QB on the road in the loudest stadium in the NFL. Take KC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-20-14 |
Houston Texans +4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers |
Top |
23-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
186 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
The Texans come into Steel Town tonight off back to back losses, but both came in close games against tough opponents. The Steelers have the same 3-3 record as Houston, but their losses have come against the likes of Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Baltimore. None of their three wins this year have come against teams with a winning record (Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville).
The Steel Curtain isn't what it used to be, as Pittsburgh's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league allowing opponents to average 111 yards per game. These stats could be a lot worse if they hadn't played such a soft schedule. Of their six games so far, only one of those came against a team that currently has a winning record.
Ben Roethlisberger really struggled in a 31-10 loss to Cleveland last Sunday, completing just 21-of-42 passes for 228 yards with just one TD and an INT. He could be under even more pressure tonight with Jadeveon Clowney is set to make his return to the lineup.
Arian Foster has run for 266 yards and four TDs in his last two games, and he could have a big night against a struggling Steelers defense. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been pretty brutal honestly, but he was able to throw for 212 yards and a TD without any INTs in the loss to the Colts last Thursday, and if he can do that again tonight the Texans will be in good shape.
I wouldn't be surprised if this game comes right down to the wire, but I'll take the visitors getting the points.
Take HOU.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-19-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Denver Broncos -6.5 |
Top |
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
114 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos. So the 49ers come into Denver riding a three game winning streak, and they are getting a TD against the spread. That's enough to tempt a lot of people to back San Fran as the dog, but this is a terrible spot for the San Francisco. They come off a Monday night game on the road, only to play again on the road six days later. This isn't just any road game though, it's at Mile High in Denver, against the mighty Broncos. Peyton Manning threw for a career high 479 yards in his last start at home, and that was against a tough Arizona defense. Note that San Francisco's last loss came at the hands of Arizona. Colin Kaepernick had a big game against the Rams, throwing for 343 yards and three TDs, but Denver's defense isn't going to let him sit back in the pocket and pass. He's going to be running for his life, trying to escape from Von Miller (2nd in the NFL in sacks). The 49ers have overcome adversity in recent weeks, playing without several key players on both sides of the ball. This week's game on short rest is a spot where a lack of depth could prove to be costly. I like Denver to win big, with Peyton breaking the TD record. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-19-14 |
NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -5.5 |
Top |
21-31 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. You might think that Dallas is due to suffer a let down after upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle last week, but I don't buy into that theory. If you're worried about a team getting up for this game, it might be the Giants that struggle to recover from a humbling defeat in Philly last Sunday night. Just when you thought Eli Manning was back, the Eagles terrorized the Giants QB, sacking him six times in a 27-0 loss. The New York defense was also shredded for over 200 yards on the ground, with Shady McCoy running for a 149 yards on 22 carries. It doesn't get any easier for the Giants this week, as they'll try to slow the NFL's leading rusher DeMarco Murray. On offense, you have to think the loss of Victor Cruz (gone for the year) is going to take a lot of wind out of their sails. Their running game will also suffer with Rashad Jennings out indefinitely. The recipe for success for this Cowboys team is simple, and until somebody can stop DeMarco Murray, the Ws will continue to pile up in the win column. Take DAL, GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-19-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Detroit Lions -2.5 |
Top |
23-24 |
Loss |
-123 |
142 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions.
With both Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson likely to miss this week's game, those injuries sort of cancel each other out. The Lions though haven't been relying on their offense to win football games, it's their defense that ranks #1 against the pass and #2 against the run.
The Saints defense has been well below average all year, and Detroit still has a well balanced attack, even without Megatron. Joique Bell has been a beast in the backfield, and he ran for 74 yards and a TD on 18 carries last week. He'll be splitting snaps with Reggie Bush, who will also pose a threat in the passing game.
The Saints are a much stronger team at home, although they sure didn't look good in a 37-31 OT win over Tampa in their last game. Drew Brees was picked off three times, with just two TDs. Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, but only 12 of those came on the road.
New Orleans has lost six straight on the road in the regular season, and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that they can end that streak this week against a superior Lions team.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-19-14 |
Tennessee Titans v. Washington Redskins -4.5 |
Top |
17-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
142 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins. Washington will host the struggling Tennessee Titans this Sunday, and the visitors come in with a record of 2-4. That's twice as many wins as the 1-5 Redskins, but let's not read too much into that. The fact is, Washington has been very competitive in four of those five losses, and when they had a chance to face an inferior opponents, they beat the daylights out of Jacksonville, winning 41-10.
This is the same Jacksonville team that the Titans played last week, barely hanging on for a 16-14 win at home. Tennessee isn't sure if starting QB Jake Locker will be healthy enough to play, but it's a bit of a stretch to say he's much better than backup Charlie Whitehurst. In fact Whitehurst has a much better TD to INT ratio at 3-1 opposed to 4-4.
Tennessee has failed to cover the points in six straight versus opponents with a losing record, and they are only getting a handful of points in Washington tonight.
Kirk Cousins has played poorly at times, but he's thrown for over 1500 yards and 10 TDs, that's got the Titans quarterbacks beat by a country mile. Facing a suspect defense, he could have a field day with all his weapons at home this week. I expect the likes of Jackson, Garcon and Morris to put up big numbers. The Skins should win big here.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-19-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 |
Top |
0-27 |
Win
|
100 |
142 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are on a roll, winners of four in a row. They host the Bengals this Sunday, and Cincy is trending in the other direction. They opened the season 4-0, but have since dropped back to back games to New England and Carolina.
This Bengals team doesn't play well on the road at the best of times, but with Andy Dalton missing two of his top receivers (A.J. Green and Marvin Jones). It's likely to be tough sledding against this Colts defense, that has been far better than anyone expected.
Indianapolis is particularly tough on 3rd down, ranking first in the NFL in opponents conversion rate, completion percentage, QBR etc. They have three INTs and seven sacks on opposing quarterbacks in their last two home games.
The Colts have covered the spread in five straight home games versus teams with a winning record, while Cincy is 1-4 ATS in it's last five road games versus winning teams. All the signs point toward a big win for the home team here in this one.
Take INDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-12-14 |
NY Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
Top |
0-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
111 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New York Giants. Before this season started, I bet on the Eagles to win the NFC East. They are currently in a first place tie with the Cowboys, who play on the road in Seattle this week. So I should be pretty pleaded about that bet? Not so much. To be totally honest Philly looks a total fraud. They trailed by double-digits in each of their first three wins, then their offense failed to score a single point on the road in a loss to San Francisco. Last week they opened up a big lead on the Rams, but their defense allowed the rams to score 21 unanswered points to make it interesting in the final minutes. The Giants really seem to have their swagger back, and I think Eli Manning is going to have no trouble marching his offense up and down the field today. Philly's offensive line is banged up, and the pass protection and running game has suffered. These problems aren't going to fix themselves against the Giants, and I think New York will run away with this game. Take NYG. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-12-14 |
Chicago Bears v. Atlanta Falcons -3 |
Top |
27-13 |
Loss |
-120 |
154 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta played well on the road in New York last week, but came up short in a 30-20 loss to the Giants. The Bears on the other hand didn't play particularly well in a loss to Carolina. Jay Cutler threw for 289 yards and a pair of TDs, but he was picked off twice by the Panthers defense. The Falcons are a Jekyll & Hyde team, dominant at home but not so great on the road. So it comes as no surprise that they are 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. There are a variety of reasons why this trend should continue here today. The Bears will see a familiar face returning kicks for the Falcons, as former Bear Devin Hester will look to pad his numbers as the leadin kicking returner in the history of the NFL. The Bears have said they play plan to challenge Hester, instead of trying to kick away from him. It could prove to be a fatal mistake. The home team has won and covered four straight in this series, and with Matt Ryan facing off against Jay Cutler, I think the Falcons are in better hands. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-12-14 |
New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3.5 |
Top |
37-22 |
Loss |
-123 |
151 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills. It was just a week ago that people were saying New England is finished, Brady doesn't have it anymore, etc. After a big win over the Bengals at Foxboro last Sunday night, it seems that people have forgotten how many problems this team still has. Sure they were able to pull off a victory at home against an overrated Bengals team, but this week they head out on the road to face Buffalo's fierce defense. Tom Brady is apparently hampered by a sprained ankle, although one has to wonder if Bill Belichick is just playing games with the media. I'm sure Brady will start, but whether or not he will finish might be another story. His offensive line hasn't provided much in the way of protection, and the Bills have welcomed opposing QBs with 17 sacks, tied for first in the NFL. Kyle Orton led the Bills to an upset win on the road at Detroit last week, and he completed 30-of-43 attempts for 308 yards and a TD. He'll be back under center today, and at this point he gives Buffalo the best chance to win. The Pats have struggled to defend the run, and I'd expect the Bills to have a big day on the ground with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Take BUF. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-12-14 |
Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
151 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Packer fans have stopped panicking, as Green Bay is coming off consecutive blowout wins the last two weeks. This is no time to R-E-L-A-X though, as a road game at Miami isn't going to be easy. The Packers still rank dead last in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 163 rushing yards per game. That could be a recipe disaster against a Dolphins team with a power running game coming off a bye week. They could get a boost if Knowshon Moreno returns as expected this Sunday. They are also expecting center Mike Pouncey and safety Reshad Jones to make their season debuts this week. Miami's defense is only allowing 208 yards passing per game, so they might have a shot at cooling off the red hot Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy had a big game against the Vikings, but one game doesn't make a season. He came into last week's game averaging 40 yards per game and just three yards per carry. Most people seem to think that this game is going to be a breeze for the visitors, but it's just not that easy to win on the road in the NFL. This is a particularly tough spot based on Miami coming off the bye and getting healthier than they have been all year. I'll take the points. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-06-14 |
Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
27-17 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle is coming off a bye week, and that's not good news for Washington, a team that is in disarray with their starting quarterback sidelined with an injury. Kirk Cousins played well coming in for RGIII in Jacksonville, and he threw for 427 yards and three TDs against Philly. But last week against the Giants he was picked off four times in a 45-14 home loss.
The Legion of Boom isn't going to make life easy for Cousins tonight, and you can expect another poor performance from the Washington backup.
Russell Wilson isn't just a game manager anymore, and in the win over Denver he engineered a very impressive game winning drive in overtime. A healthy Percy Harvin adds another weapon to this offense, and the Seahawks are putting up plenty of points so far in 2014.
This is just a terrible spot of the Redskins, playing the defending champs who have had an addition week to rest and prepare for this nationally televised game. Cousins has got to be rattled after a terrible game against the Giants, and this Seahawks defense is particularly good at forcing turnovers.
I think the Redskins can with Cousins, just not this week.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-05-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs +7 v. San Francisco 49ers |
Top |
17-22 |
Win
|
100 |
111 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
There are big problems in San Fransciso, and after watching them shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly so far this season, I don't think they should be giving up points, even at home.
The Eagles were terrible last week, with their offense failing to score a single point. Still, after several breakdowns on special teams, and an INT returned for a TD, Philly still had a chance to win the game in the final minute.
Colin Kaepernick was brutal, taking several delay of game penalties letting the play clock expire. He held on to the ball for too long in the pocket, taking several unnecessary sacks. Coach Jim Harbaugh was not impressed, and there was a nasty exchange on the sidelines halfway threw the 3rd quarter.
The more I watch Colin Kaepernick play, the more I think that the 49ers made a big mistake getting rid of Alex Smith. The former 49er was impressive in a win over the Pats last week, and you can bet he's looking forward to facing his former team here today.
With injuries to the defense, the offensive line, and their most dangerous weapon on offense (Vernon Davis) unlikely to play, the 49ers are in big trouble.
Take KC.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-05-14 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7.5 |
Top |
20-41 |
Win
|
100 |
63 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Arizona Cardinals come into Denver with a 3-0 record, but catching the Broncos after a bye week isn't a good spot for the visitors. While they lost to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 3, Denver proved that their defense is greatly improved, and they really did look like the second best team in the NFL.
Carson Palmer will ride the pine again this week, and that leaves Drew Stanton to to try match serves with Peyton Manning. Stanton has been solid so far, but he's only completed 51% of his passes. If Denver drives down the field early putting TDs on the board (as they are known to do), it will put a lot of pressure on the Cardinals offense, and that could spell disaster for Stanton.
The Cardinals are pretty thin in the backfield, with Jonathan Dwyer sitting out due to his legal troubles, and Andre Ellington slowed by a foot injury.
The Broncos have won four straight home games versus Arizona by a combined score of 106-32. I don't expect any different result here today.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-05-14 |
Houston Texans v. Dallas Cowboys -3 |
Top |
17-20 |
Push |
0 |
142 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is off a surprising 3-1 start, and I can't see any reason why they would take a step back at home today against Houston. The Texans defense has forced it's fair of turnovers, but the offense has been a complete nightmare. Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown as many picks (5) as he has touchdowns. All five of those INTS have come in the last two weeks, and he has just a pair of TDs in those games.
Tony Romo didn't look sharp at home against the 49ers in Week 1, and perhaps he was a little rusty coming off surgery in the off-season. He's looked sharper as the season has progressed, and last week he threw for 262 yards and three TDs against the Saints. He looks more comfortable in the pocket, and has shown the ability to be more mobile and avoid the sack.
DeMarco Murray leads the league in rushing, with 534 yards. That's 156 more yards than Le'Veon Bell, who ranks second with 378 yards. Murray has run for at least 100 yards with at least one TD in all four of the Cowboy's games, including the season opener against the 49ers. If he can run on the San Francisco defense, he should be able to have success against the Texans.
The Cowboys defense is their biggest concern, but with Fitzpatrick under center for the Texans, I don't think they'll be able to take advantage of the Cowboy's defensive shortcomings.
Take Dallas.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-05-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10.5 |
Top |
31-37 |
Loss |
-105 |
142 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints return home after yet another loss on the road, getting blown out in Dallas by a score of 38-17. We shouldn't be too surprised though, as struggling on the road is nothing new for this dome team. They are back at the Superdome to host the Tampa Bucs this Sunday, and I think we should see vintage Drew Brees here in this one.
Brees threw 39 touchdown passes in 2013, and 27 of those came at home. He'll be matched against a Buccaneers team that ranks 29th against the pass, allowing 272 yards per game so far. You look at what Atlanta did against the Bucs in Week 3, and it might be a similar story here in New Orleans.
The Bucs are just 1-3, and last week they trailed the Steelers with under two minutes remaining, without the ball. The Steelers couldn't pick up a first down to run out the clock, and Tampa got the ball back and marched down the field for a game winning score as time expired.
The Saints have won their last two home games versus Tampa by a combined score of 83-17. This game isn't likely to be close, I expect it to be a nightmare for the visitors.
Take NO.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-28-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4 |
Top |
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
155 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco will host the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and Philly has come from behind after trailing by double digits three weeks in a row. I think their luck runs out this week though, facing a desperate 49ers team, and coming off a tough battle with Washington last week.
This Eagles defense hasn't impressed so far, ranking 30th in the NFL against the pass. That's pretty bad when you consider one of their three games came at home against Jacksonville. Philly will also have to make due with an offensive line decimated by injuries to center Jason Kelce, right tackle Lane Johnson, and left guard Evan Mathis. Replacing players on the offensive line is difficult for any team, but perhaps more so for a team running such an up tempo offense.
QB Nick Foles also took a beating in last weeks win over Washington, and he's in a tough spot here on the road a week later. Foles and the Eagles might not be able to lean on their running game, as the 49ers have been pretty tough against the run allowing an average of just 85 yards per game (6th in NFL). Shady McCoy failed to get anything going against Washington last week, picking up just 22 yards on 19 carries. He also took several big shots that saw him slow to get up, at one point looking like he might have suffered a concussion.
The game against the Redskins was a nasty one, and it clearly took a lot out of Washington as they came out flat on Thursday night in a loss to New York. I think we should see a similar story for the Eagles here in San Francisco.
Vernon Davis is listed as a game time decision, but I'm expecting him to play. I'm not a Niners fan, but this looks like a good spot for San Francisco at home.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-28-14 |
Buffalo Bills +3.5 v. Houston Texans |
Top |
17-23 |
Loss |
-118 |
151 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills had no answer for Philip Rivers last week, but this week's game at Houston should be a different story. Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was terrible in a loss to the Giants last week, throwing three picks. Houston relies mostly on it's running game for offense, and that's not a good thing facing the Bills.
Buffalo ranks 5th overall in the NFL in run defense, with opponents averaging just 83 yards per game. Arian Foster is set to return today, but I wouldn't suggest playing him in your fantasy leagues.
C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson might be a little more successful though, as Houston hasn't had as much success stopping the run as one would expect. Bills QB E.J. Manuel has been solid but not brilliant, throwing for 613 yards, three TDs and one pick.
The Bills defense should be good enough to keep them in this game, especially going up against former Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. This game is likely to be a close one, and I'll take the Bills + the points.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-25-14 |
NY Giants v. Washington Redskins -3.5 |
Top |
45-14 |
Loss |
-100 |
45 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 8* play on the Washington Redskins.
The Redskins are coming off a tough loss on the road at Philadelphia, and they are a little banged up as they get ready to host the Giants on Thursday Night Football. New York is coming off it's first win of the season, and Rashad Jennings ran all over the Texans picking up 176 yards on the ground.
Jennings might not find as many holes in this Washington defense, that currently ranks 3rd overall in the NFL allowing just 64 yards rushing per game. The Redskins held Shady McCoy to just 22 yards on Sunday, but couldn't hold on to a double digit lead.
Eli Manning finally had a game without throwing an INT, but it could be a little early to say he's turned things around. He's up against a ferocious Washington pass rush that leads the NFL in sacks, so don't be surprised if he struggles here on the road.
Kirk Cousins has impressed since filling in for the injured RGIII, he's thrown for 677 yards and five TDs with just one INT in two games. He could be in for a big night against a Giants secondary that hasn't been impressive, allowing over 250 yards passing per game.
Take WAS,
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-21-14 |
Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -9.5 |
Top |
9-20 |
Win
|
100 |
153 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints host the Vikings in a must win game in New Orleans this Sunday, and this game was always going to be a blowout. New Orleans has lost back to back games on the road at Atlanta and Cleveland, and they need a win here at home in order to keep their season alive.
The Saints (much like Seattle) are a different team at home. Last season they were 8-0 at the Superdome, and all but one of those victories came by double digits.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes in 2013, 27 of those came at home in New Orleans. His completion percentage at home (73.6%) was almost 10 percentage points higher than it was on the road.
The Vikings have more problems other than the loss of Peterson, their QB Matt Cassel was picked off four times in the loss to New England last week, completing just 52% of his passes. The Vikings probably know they are better off handing over the reigns to Teddy Bridgewater, but this week's game isn't the best spot for them to make such a move. They'll let Cassel take his lumps today, and unless he does something special, expect to see Bridgewater at home verusus Atlanta next week.
Take the Saints.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-21-14 |
Houston Texans -2.5 v. NY Giants |
Top |
17-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
153 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
I played the Texans in both their previous two wins the last two weeks, and seeing them play on the road against a sloppy New York Giants team has me licking my chops at a chance to bet on them again this week. The Giants simply can't hold on to the football, and that doesn't bode well against a very strong Texans team with a fierce pass rush and an opportunistic secondary.
Even when Houston was losing games last year, the defense was still playing well. The Texans owned the #1 ranked defense against the pass for most of the season, until they completely collapsed in the final four weeks. I don't expect this year's team to fall apart, as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick can continue to make good decisions.
Fitzpatrick has a bit of a shady history when it comes to turnovers, but not as much so as Eli Manning. The Giants QB threw a whopping 27 picks last year, and he's already tossed four INTs in losses to Detroit and Arizona. Those of you who know me will have heard me say it before "HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF", and this sums up how I feel about Eli these days. After seeing him stink for the better part of the last two year, it's tough to expect any different result here this week.
The recipe for success for Houston should be pretty simple, just keep doing what they have been doing in the first two weeks. They don't need to take any chances. Hand the ball off to Arian Foster and pound away with the run. Foster was quite effective on the road last week, running for 138 yards and a TD.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|