NFL Super Bowl Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 vs Los Angeles Rams @ 6:30 ET - All the pressure is really on the Rams here. Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay got to the Super Bowl a few years ago and scored a measly 3 points against the Patriots. There is immense pressure on LA to make up for that effort here. In turn, that puts pressure on QB Matthew Stafford and he has been prone to turnovers in the past. Is this the game the turnover bug bites him again? This would not surprise me if it is. The Bengals and QB Joe Burrow come into this game in an entirely different situation. Cincinnati, of course, was not expected to be here. But the fact no one expects anything from them and any win through the post-season was just a bonus, this Bengals team is playing rather loose and relaxed. That said, and with the line move to the 4.5 range, I really like having the points here in a game in which an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. But having the points is truly a solid bonus as the Bengals have only failed to cover twice in their last ten games against teams with a winning record. Cincy has been an ATS covering machine. The Rams last ten games against teams with a winning record has seen them cover only three of the games. Value with the points. We'll take it! 8* CINCINNATI +4.5

NFL ML NFC Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +165 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 6:40 ET - I like the Niners here and feel we will not need any points and the value is with the solid plus money on the money line in this one. San Francisco has played 19 games this season and only 2 of them were losses by 3 or less points. Los Angeles has also played 19 games this season and only 3 of them were wins by 3 or less points. As you can see given those numbers, the odds that the point spread comes into play here are quite slim. That said, I am grabbing the significant plus money. Something tells me this is the game that Stafford's turnover woes resume while Garoppolo continues to excel at QB for San Francisco. The 49ers were 3-5 on the season before they turned their season around after a 31-10 win over the Rams. Then in the rematch against the Rams they were down 17-3 at half but turned it around in the 2nd half for a 27-24 win. That gives even more confidence to the Niners here. As for the Rams, their season was the opposite. LA started the season 7-1 but then went a rather mediocre 5-4 the rest of the way. After beating Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champs last week, look for LA to fall flat this week. They will not be flat, don't get me wrong, but I just feel they are facing a SF team that is peaking at the right time and playing with a ton of confidence and seems unflappable right now. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +165

NFL Money Line Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills +110 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - The Bills seek revenge for last year's playoff ouster at the hands of KC. Look for last year's playoff experience to help Buffalo a lot in this rematch. The Chiefs were just not quite as strong this season and that is why you are seeing them priced as such a small favorite even though they are at home for this game. With a win here the Bills will host next week's AFC Championship Game because the Titans got knocked out yesterday. This is huge for Buffalo and I feel strongly this is the Bills year to finally get back to the Super Bowl. Buffalo has had only 3 high-scoring losses this season and in the other 15 games, win or lose, the points allowed by the Bills are truly impressive. Buffalo allowed only 13.2 points per game in those 15 games! The Bills have allowed an average of only 15.4 points per game last 5 games overall. Compare all this to a KC team that has allowed 27 points or more in 8 games this season and enters this game having allowed an average of 26.3 points per game last 3 games. The Bills have the added confidence too of having won here in Kansas City earlier this season. The Chiefs go from facing a Pittsburgh team with Roethlisberger on his last legs to facing a Bills team with Allen capable of picking apart opposing defenses. The road team trend in the divisional round continues and no points needed here. 10* BUFFALO +110

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 9* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 3 ET - Do you think the Rams are only 4 points better than the Eagles team that the Bucs just flat out embarrassed last week? Me neither! But that is what this line is telling you as the Rams are +3 this week after the closing line on last week's game was Eagles +7. That is only a 4 point variance and I am not buying it. The odds makers do not intentionally set "trap lines" but this is one that will likely "trap" public bettors as Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl Champions are only a 3 point favorite on their home turf. The Rams look like a team on a mission after their dismantling of the Cardinals last week and I love their defense. Also, this is not a pedestrian offense for LA like the poor Philly offense with a rookie QB that TB faced last week. Upset alert! 9* LOS ANGELES RAMS +3

NFC Game of the Year NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +5.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The 49ers beat a good Cowboys team last week. That was not just about Dallas being bad it was that the Niners are built well for playoff football and they proved that last week. Defensively this team is solid and, oh by the way, San Francisco plays in a division with Arizona and the Rams. LA may have made the Cards look bad last week but the fact is both the Cardinals and Rams are very good teams and finished the regular season with a combined record of 23-11. As for the Packers, they play in a division with the likes of the Vikings, Bears, and Lions. Not only did none of those teams have a winning record, the 3 combined for a 17-33-1 record. Now don't get me wrong, Green Bay is an excellent team. I am just pointing out that they might be a bit over-valued. Also, Green Bay won at San Francisco earlier this season but the Niners lost the turnover battle 2-0. The 49ers actually had 26 first downs compared to only 21 for the Packers. Also, the line in that game was SF -3 and that means the markets considered the teams equal then. Now this game is at Green Bay and the line was as high as a -6 on the Packers. Suddenly GB is now deserving of an extra 3 points compared to the original match-up? The point is that if this line was priced the same was as the original match-up it would be GB -3. This is value. Packers played 17 games this season and only 8 were wins by more than 3 points which means 9 were not! You get my point. The Niners have now played 18 games and only 5 were losses by more than 3 points which means, of course, the other 13 games were not! I just look for a very tightly contested game quite possibly decided by 3 points and whether SF wins or GB wins I don't care as long as the margin is slim like that. The fact is though I sense an upset here. The Niners allowed 17 points per game last 6 games. GB, not including meaningless season finale in which they did not care, did enter that contest having allowed 26 points per game last 6 games. The better D and a very confident group will be able to get the upset here but I am grabbing the points for added insurance. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +5.5

NFL Daytime Dominator 9* Top Play Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Huge rest edge here for Tennessee off the bye week while Cincinnati was in action for wild card weekend. Give the Bengals credit as they got it done last week and are elated to have finally won a playoff game after a 3-decade stretch without notching a post-season win. That said, Cincinnati has already achieved something and there was a lot of celebrating last week. However, now they are facing a much different animal. The Titans are not the Raiders...not even close. Playing a playoff game on the road instead of at home...not even close. The point is that Joe Burrow and the Bengals are in for a rude awakening going on the road and facing one of the top teams in the league and one with a good amount of playoff experience on its roster. Look for this to turn into a blowout as Cincinnati perfectly fits the mode of a "one and done" in terms of how they are built for a post-season run. They just don't have the ground game on offense that the hosts have and now those hosts getting back Derrick Henry at RB this week too. 9* TENNESSEE 

NFL Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +4 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The road team won both meetings in the regular season. Rams on a 2-4 ATS run in home games. Cardinals were 8-1 SU and ATS in road games. Los Angeles known for playoff disappointment. I also like Murray over Stafford at the QB spot as the latter has been a little turnover-prone of late and the former is such a dangerous playmaker. The Cards are offering line value here because there is a lot of anti-Arizona sentiment based on their late season fade but a lot of that had to do with some injury issues that have since improved. Other than the split against Arizona, Los Angeles went just 1-4 SU in games against teams that ended up in the playoffs this season. Also, the Rams had a pair of wins against two other teams (Colts and Ravens) that came by margins of just 3 and 1, respectively. The point is that there is a lot of value with grabbing the points here in my opinion and an outright upset would certainly not surprise me in the least. 10* ARIZONA +4

NFL Wild Card Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 46 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - Decent football weather expected for this one with no precipitation, temperatures right around freezing and winds around a moderate 10 mph. Both offenses will have the playbooks wide open for this one. Now I know that the Steelers offense has struggled but the way I see this game playing out is the Chiefs getting a big lead and then we're going to see some extra scoring in garbage time for sure. Just like Big Ben had a big game in his final home game of his career two weeks ago, the Steelers also want to give him a good send off here and everyone will likely be doing their part in that regard. That means more points than you would likely expect from the Steelers here. Keep in mind, the Chiefs have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of last 4 games and that is part of the reason the over trend is 5-0 last 5 Kansas City games. Also, about that Steelers defense, it has not traveled well. Pittsburgh has allowed 33.4 points per game in last 5 road games. The Chiefs are favored by about two touchdowns here and given the above numbers and the situation with Roethlisberger airing it out in this game I feel certain, look for a 35-21 or 38-24 type game here. This should fly over as a 6th straight KC game tops the number. 10* OVER 46 in Kansas City

NFL Contrarian Crusher Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +3 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - You all likely know the traditional factor of a home team generally having a factor of 3 points in the line in the NFL. That said, this line is saying that these teams are equal even though Dallas finished 12-5 and won their division while the 49ers barely made the playoffs! San Francisco's 10-7 record placed them 3rd in their 4 team division. With all this said, you know where that places me on this game. When something does not look right most will just line up on that side where they feel there is a mistake and now they miraculously have some gift from the odds makers. It just does not work that way folks. Many may be enticed to play Dallas at home -3 here but in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the public in this one. The Cowboys went only 5-3 at home this season and the Niners went 6-3 on the road. Also, SF won 7 of last 9 games and Dallas - other than 2 wins against Eagles in divisional battles - went 1-4 in games against playoff teams. This is another game where all the pressure is on the home favorite. In fact, the expectation is that if Cowboys don't make a run in this post-season there will be some coaching staff shake-ups. This is a lot of pressure on a team and Dallas has never been known for handling pressure well. Upset alert! 10* SAN FRANCISCO +3

NFL Earliest Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The big underdog Eagles getting some help from mother nature in this one as very windy conditions expected in Tampa for this one. This could limit the passing games a bit and when you compare the running games of these teams the Eagles certainly hold the big edge. Since Philadelphia went to their heavy ground attack, that is when the team has flourished. Prior to their loss in a season-ending finale that had no meaning to them (guys sat, etc) Philly had won 7 of 9 games. Of course the Buccaneers are the defending Super Bowl champs and finished the season red hot so I am not saying the Eagles win this outright of course. I am simply saying that getting more than a TD is offering great value here. Before their blowout win over the Panthers in the season finale, only 5 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games were Bucs wins by more than a TD! The Eagles know they must get after Brady in this game and between the wind and QB pressure, I think Tom Brady and Company will be held in check more than usual in this game. The "we have nothing to lose" Eagles come into this game loose and relaxed knowing nothing is expected of them while all the pressure is on Brady and Company as one of the Super Bowl favorites. Glad to grab the big points here. 8* PHILADELPHIA +8

AFC East Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots could be hosting this game but they instead went 1-3 their last 4 games. The Bills could be on the road for this game but instead they got the job done and went 4-0 last 4 games. Also, the experience of last year's post-season run for Buffalo and QB Josh Allen is huge. Allen had a 5-1 TD-INT ratio in last year's playoff run and that included a 3-0 ratio at home. Now he and the Bills take on a rookie QB Mac Jones making his first ever playoff start and it is on the road and it is in frigid conditions for a QB who played his college ball at Alabama. As for Allen, he played his college ball in Wyoming and certainly is no stranger to cold weather games. It will be frigid at Orchard Park Saturday and Allen and the Bills stay hot and make it 5 straight SU wins and, along the way, they get the cover too! 10* BUFFALO -4.5

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line has moved back toward the Bengals now. We are seeing some +6 with a plus money price and even some +6.5 are now out there. Anyway, is now about 5 hours before kickoff so I don't want to hold off any longer because I don't think we are going to see any 7's show up on this one but we definitely have value with the big dog here in my opinion. All the pressure is on a Bengals team that is on an 0-8 SU run in the post-season and has not won a playoff game in 3 decades! Cincinnati is favored and feels the pressure to win here. The Raiders come into this game loose and relaxed plus on a 4-game winning streak. This is the perfect recipe for a dangerous dog situation! That is what I see here is an underdog that has been playing with an "us against the world" mentality for 4 straight weeks now and I look for them to at least get the cover even if their SU winning streak does finally come to an end. I don't trust the Bengals laying this many points in this situation and would not be surprised to see this game decided by a margin of only 3 or 4 points. 8* LAS VEGAS +6.5

CFB Money Line Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide Money Line +132 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 8 ET - There are multiple ways to look at the line in this game of course and I am going to talk to you about my angle on the ATS side but then grab the extra value here by utilizing the money line. Georgia is a helluva strong team of course. The Bulldogs were nearly 7 point favorites in the SEC Championship Game between these teams 5 weeks ago. The Georgia defense got embarrassed in that game and you know they will want to respond here. However, the odds makers know this too yet they priced Georgia as only a 2.5 point favorite. They knew the markets would back the revenge-minded Bulldogs and so they had to shade the line some. Sure enough an already-shaded line has been driven by the markets to a -3. Long-time followers know I love fading line moves and fading public perception. There is a reason this line was priced so low even though Georgia has revenge from SEC Championship Game as well as from losing the last National Championship Game 4 years ago in OT after rallying from a 13-0 halftime deficit. Don't fall for the trap line here folks. Not only is the Crimson Tide the play, we don't need any points. Money line top play here. 10* ALABAMA +132

NFL GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Win and you are in! So this one pretty clear cut in terms of its magnitude for the post-season. That said, the winner is going to be the road team in my opinion and don't be fooled by the fact that the home team is an underdog here. Yes the Raiders have won 3 straight games but we will take a closer look at that 3-game win streak right after I remind you that Las Vegas had lost 5 of 6 before that 3-game run! So about those 3 wins, they faced a Colts team that got QB Wentz out of covid protocol essentially right before the game and it showed as Indy had their lowest yardage output of the season but clearly they were not ready for the game. The week before that the Raiders beat a Broncos team without QB Bridgewater and Denver was struggling on offense without him. The week before that LV beat a Browns team that was down to 3rd string QB and dealing with a covid mess. The point is that the Raiders got a ton of breaks during this 3-game winning streak and they had lost 5 of 6 before the string of good luck. Their luck runs out here as they face a QB that picked them apart in first meeting and is raring to go for the rematch as well. The Raiders finally face a healthy #1 QB and a rather healthy team overall that also is playing with a ton of motivation. The Chargers last 3 ROAD games against teams that are all now going to the playoffs were all wins and came by a combined score of 98 to 70. I look for another big road win here as the Raiders have had a season marred by off the field issues and problems and simply got lucky to even be in this spot. This is the week their luck has run out as this Las Vegas team - take a close look at them - simply does not have the look of a playoff team. The road favorite proves that on the field tonight! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2.5

NFC West Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 48 in Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks and Cardinals each off huge wins. Seattle, of course, eliminated from playoffs but they are out to prove things with Russell Wilson at the controls and it showed in their 51-29 win over Detroit last week. They can prevent Arizona from even having a chance at the NFC West title by knocking them off here so you know they are going to pull out all the stops in that regard. However, the Cards are going to be tough to stop on their home turf and coming off the key 25-22 win over the Cowboys last week. That sets this one up nicely as far as turning into a high-scoring shootout! Arizona will take advantage of a Seahawks team that has allowed an average of 27 points per game last two weeks even though they faced bad teams from NFC North and the games were in Seattle! At the same time, the Seahawks will enjoy success as this is an offense that has had just one bad game the last five games and averaged 34.5 points in the other 4 games. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games and I expect another one here. 10* OVER 48 in Arizona

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts -14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Colts need a win for the playoffs and the Jaguars need a loss for the top pick in the NFL draft. Look for both teams to punch their ticket! The Colts are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games! The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS last 7 games overall. This line falling into the -14 range makes Indianapolis worthy of investment here. The Colts should absolutely annihilate a Jags team that is again the laughingstock of the NFL. Supposedly some Jacksonville fans will show up dressed as clowns for this game as that is how far things have fallen for Jags. You have to feel sorry for Trevor Lawrence getting into this mess after all his success at QB at a powerhouse CFB program like Clemson. That said, QB Carson Wentz and head coach Frank Reich are coming off the Colts worst yardage performance of the season in last week's loss to the bad defense of the Raiders. They simply overlooked them and now they take out their frustration on a bad Jags team. This one gets very ugly and I know the line is big but you can see per the stats (6-0 ATS, 0-7 ATS) above that it is 100% justified and I am expecting a win by at least a 3 TD margin here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS -14

NFL Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +11 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:30 ET - The Chiefs can still get to the #1 seed in the AFC if they simply win this game and the Titans lose Sunday. While the former has a good chance (though I expect a tight game) the latter is highly improbable as Tennessee is also a double digit favorite this weekend since they are facing the Texans. Mentally, the Chiefs are not in the right frame of mind for a blowout win here. They blew their chance at the #1 seed by losing to the Bengals last week. There will be some carryover effect from that loss into this game. Also, KC's biggest concern here has to be staying healthy. The Broncos, on the other hand, have no such concerns here and I expect them to be flying all over the field with aggression as they host a long-time division rival that has had their number for about 5 or 6 seasons in a row now. Yes, the Broncos have a tough QB situation but this team is highly motivated here, will be going hard at home in this one, and can throw caution to the wind in an all-out effort to finish the season with a win over a hated division rival. I will grab the big points here as I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Chiefs need to stay healthy. They know their chances of the #1 seed are very slim and it is better to avoid injury here. 10* DENVER +11

CFB Situational Slaughter Tuesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers +7 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 9 ET - The Wildcats scored a COMBINED total of just 27 points in their last two games of the season and that included one against a Longhorns team that had a bad season. The Tigers scored 27 points in EACH of their last two games of the season and that included an outright upset win over a solid Texas A & M team which made sure LSU got their 6th win and is the reason they are playing in a bowl game. I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. Kansas State has gone from being a -2.5 favorite to now being favored at a full -7 as of game day. Yes there are reasons for the line move but long-time followers know I love to fade line moves and grab the value on the other side. Certainly the Cats played a respectable schedule as they play in the Big 12 but the Tigers and the SEC schedule was even tougher. Too much value to pass up on with the big points being offered here. 10* LSU +7

AFC North Game of the Year Monday NFL 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Browns are eliminated from playoff contention while the Steelers remain alive with a win tonight though they would also have to win plus get unlikely help next week. The point is that Pittsburgh is playing with playoff pressure while Cleveland is not. The Browns have now gone from being a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog in this one. The line swing of about a full TD is simply too much. Keep in mind, the Steelers are a rival for Cleveland. Just as their playoff hopes were squelched yesterday, the Browns would love nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's playoff hopes tonight. There is no pressure to do so but they would love to do it. So you have a road team playing loose and relaxed and hungry for an elimination win over a rival. You have a host that has not even scored a first-half touchdown in ANY of their last FIVE games and is playing with playoff pressure here. The Steelers are a bit lucky they are even 2-3 SU in their last five games and I look for them to struggle to score points again in this one. The Browns will deliver a "shocker" tonight as Pittsburgh is the team that needs to win but, to this day, the betting markets have just never fully gotten a grasp on this. The reaction is that if a team needs to win it will win and that is just not how this stuff works. This is particularly true in a rivalry game. I'll happily take the points in this one! 10* CLEVELAND +3

NFL Game of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +13 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 PM ET - Frigid temperatures expected for this one and it is a divisional battle and it is just too many points in my opinion. Even though Vikings are with their #2 QB, Mannion can be a good game manager and I am expecting a huge game from RB Cook in this one. The Packers should still win this game but I expect it to be by a margin closer to the original 1 TD line on this game not two TDs! The home team has won just twice in last five meetings between these divisional foes and the two wins by the host were each by 5 or less points! Green Bay has won 4 in a row but all but 1 were by 8 or less points! The Vikings have played 15 games this season and not one of them have been a loss by more than 8 points! That means if you had the Vikes +13 in all games this season you would be a perfect 15-0! Happy to test that edge here! 10* MINNESOTA +13

NFC Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41 in Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions @ 4:25 ET - Late in the season I like to look for overs in games involving teams going nowhere. When you have teams eliminated from playoff contention you generally have teams disinterested in terms of having a lot of defensive intensity on the field. I am also a contrarian and with somewhat ugly weather expected in Seattle Sunday afternoon I will gladly go against public perception and take the over with the low total being offered. Yes I know that Stafford is out at QB for the Lions in this one but that means Boyle gets a 2nd straight start and that will help him here. Also, Russell Wilson still would like to go out with a bang this season and I expect a big game here in the 2nd to last week of the regular season. No holding back here for either QB as neither team has anything to worry about as there is no playoff pressure. Note that Detroit had scored 29 or more in 2 of last 3 games before their 20-16 loss last week. The Seahawks have scored 24 or more in 3 of last 4 games and all 3 of those efforts resulted in an over. Look for another one here! 10* OVER 41 in Seattle

NFL PA Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 @ Washington Football Team @ 1 ET - The Eagles dominated Washington in their game last month much more than the 27-17 final would indicated. Philadelphia outgained them by 282 yards so the final score could have been much worse! Now Washington enters this game off an ultra-embarrassing loss to the rival Cowboys. A performance like that against a rival is an indication of a football club that has quit on the season. That said, I look for the Eagles to pound the Football Team again in this one and we have good line value here because Philly is on the road. If they were at home they would be laying double digits but on the road it is keeping this line in the -4.5 range and each of the Eagles last 6 wins have been by 10 or more points. As for Washington, each of their last 8 losses have been by 7 or more points. Lay the number with the road team in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

CFB Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels -1 vs Baylor Bears @ 8:45 ET - Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense in this match-up. Also, could Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon be impacted by the fact he has missed some recent game action with a hamstring injury? I believe the answer to that will prove to be yes. Keep in mind, the Rebels allowed an average of only 18 points per game over their last 4 games. The Bears are off a tight 21-16 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game but did allow 24 or more points in 6 of 9 games heading into that one. Also, in their win over the Cowboys they actually were outgained by nearly 100 yards but were the beneficiary of 4 Oklahoma State interceptions in that game. That is not happening again here as Mississippi QB Matt Corral threw only 4 all year and plus threw for 20 touchdowns. Also, the Rebels have an excellent ground attack so they have a balanced offense and a tremendously solid defense! The Bears are in trouble here and are over-rated in my opinion and the SEC foe how had only 2 losses this season will get it done. One of their only two losses was to mighty Alabama and the other one was to a very solid Auburn team that had almost beaten the Crimson Tide this season. 10* OLE MISS -1

CFB Contrarian Crusher Saturday 9* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - This is a contrarian play here. The common viewpoint on this game is that Ohio State is disappointed to be here. Lets not forget this is the Rose Bowl! Yes the Buckeyes were playing for the national championship last year and this year they will not be. However, this is an Ohio State team that is angry after losing badly at Michigan to finish their regular season off. The Buckeyes want to erase the bitter taste of defeat from their mouths here and they also want to get some redemption against a Pac-12 foe as their only other loss this season came at the hands of Oregon. That is the same Ducks team that the Utes manhandled twice this season. However, Ohio State is coming to play here and Utah does not have the explosive offense that the Buckeyes have. Look for that to be a key difference maker here and the favorite pulls away as this game goes on. They are far more motivated for this game than most realize. 9* OHIO STATE -3.5

CFB Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -7.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Wolverines are known for struggling in big games. I know Michigan finally came up big in their big game versus Ohio State and also won the Big Ten Championship over Iowa. However, that does not change the fact that the Wolverines have lost 4 straight bowl games both SU and ATS and now they face a team that might be the best team in the country. I know Georgia lost to Alabama but this Bulldogs team is really something else. They had allowed only 7 points per game in 12 straight wins before the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now we get a chance to take one of the best teams in the country off a loss and laying only about a TD and we can fade a team with a poor recent bowl history under Harbaugh...I'll take it! Lay the points for a big play here. The Bulldogs defense will be the difference in this one. The Wolverines allowed 23.6 in their 5 games away from home before the Big Ten Championship. The Bulldogs never allowed more than 17 points this season until the loss to Crimson Tide. Michigan allowed 17 points or more in all 5 of those games away from before beating Iowa. The Dawgs D rules the day here. 10* GEORGIA -7.5

CFB Contrarian Crusher Friday 9* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats are undefeated and yet nearly a two TD underdog against a Crimson Tide team that has one loss on the season. Big mistake by the odds makers, right? Hardly! In typical contrarian fashion, laying the big points in this one! Look for Alabama to crush Cincinnati here. The Tide played a tougher schedule, have the much better passing attack and the much better run defense. All signs pointing to a blowout here as the Bearcats finally find out what it is like to take a major step up in class in terms of the high level of opponent they are now facing. They finally got their wish of being a part of the national title discussion and having that chance to prove that a smaller program can get it done on the big stage. Unfortunately for Cincinnati though, this story does not have a good ending. 9* ALABAMA -13.5

Peach Bowl Blowout Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - The Panthers have the better numbers overall this season and I definitely like their edge on defense in this match-up in particular. Yes there are some opt-outs for this game but that is effecting both teams. I also know the Spartans have the better recent bowl history but feel we have value with the defensive-minded physical underdog in this match-up. The Panthers hold the edges in pass defense and I like their ground game too. Strong rushing team and with a solid defense and they are an underdog. This one has all the right ingredients that equate to value. Also, Pat Narduzzi is Pittsburgh's head coach and he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan State from 2007 to 2014. The Spartans are coached by Mel Tucker and this is the first ever bowl game he has coached in. Grab the points! 10* PITTSBURGH

CFB Bowl Insider Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:15 ET - The Sooners are the much better overall team in my opinion. Yes they have lost a couple games recently but they only trailed Baylor by 3 entering 4th quarter of the defeat that ended a 17-game winning streak for Oklahoma. Also, the Sooners other loss was by just 4 points to another strong team, Oklahoma State. That said, take a look now at the Ducks losses: lost to a Stanford team that has since lost 7 straight games and finished the season 3-9. Also, Oregon lost twice to Utah by a combined score of 76 to 17. The fact we can still get Oklahoma in the TD range for this game has me rating this play with my top play rating as I feel we have the much stronger team here at a bargain price and the Ducks have shown on 3 different occasions this season that they are fully capable of really disappointing in a game. They do it again here and the Sooners roll. 10* OKLAHOMA -6.5

CFB Bowl Annihilation Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 57.5 in Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:45 ET - The Red Raiders defense struggled down the stretch. The Bulldogs should be able to score plenty in this one against Texas Tech and, of course, Mississippi State is a big favorite here with good reason. However, don't be surprised if the big dog in this match-up also moves the ball quite well. Texas Tech has a solid aerial attack and, other than a shutout loss to Oklahoma State, note that the Red Raiders scored an average of 33 points per game this season! That was their average in the other 11 games. The Bulldogs had one bad game - 9 points against Alabama - but averaged 33 points in the other 11 games this season! Don't be surprised if we see a 42 to 31 type game here which pushes this one well over the total. 10* OVER 57.5 in Mississippi State

NFL Primetime Thrasher Monday NFL 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Ian Book of the Saints is scheduled to make his first ever NFL start and, in the eyes of the betting marketplace, that means the Dolphins win this game. I disagree. It is not as if Book has never played on the big stage as he played his College Football at Notre Dame! This guy is use to big game settings and also this game is at home. Having the support of the home fans will certainly help Book. Also, New Orleans is a solid team battling to stay alive in the playoff race and they are catching value here because the Dolphins have been on a winning streak. Keep in mind, two of those six Miami wins were over a Jets team that is 4-11 and another one was over a Giants team that is 4-11 and also Houston is 4-11 and Carolina is 5-10. So of the 6 wins in their win streak, 5 were against combined current records of 21-54 (counting Jets record twice). I am just not sold on this Miami team and only one of those 6 wins was on the road and prior to that road win the Dolphins had lost 4 straight games when away from home. 10* NEW ORLEANS +3.5

CFB Earliest Blowout Monday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +7 vs Western Michigan @ 11 AM ET - In the regular season the situation here for Nevada would be devastating. But, in bowl time, when a team has extra time to prepare for a game things can be managed much better. Nevada has a number of opt outs for this game but nearly the entire defense is intact and it is made up of veteran players. On offense yes they are starting an inexperienced QB but the 6'9 signal-caller has had extra time to prep with this team and they are going against a MAC defense. The MAC has not performed well overall in these bowls thus far. So, what about the MWC? They are a perfect 4-0 and that includes beating a Pac-12 team (Ore St) and a team (UTSA) that nearly finished with a perfect record in the regular season. This line has gone from Nevada -3 or -4 to now the Wolf Pack being a +7 underdog. More times than not these line moves never work out like the betting masses think they will. A 10 point swing here? A MAC team favored by 7 over an MWC school? I know that Nevada also has an interim head coach for this one but he has this team believing and viewing this is as their "one game season" together. Practices have been spirited and you are going to see a spirited effort from the Wolf Pack come game time too. Look for the defense, mostly intact other than being without one top player, to absolutely be the dominant force in this game! 10* NEVADA +7

NFL Primetime Punisher Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Football Team +9.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Washington gets Taylor Heinicke back at QB for this game. This is a rivalry game. Washington swept the Cowboys last season but now has revenge from a loss at home versus Dallas two weeks ago. The Football Team now in a little better shape from the covid that had impacted their roster recently. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 Cowboys games. Also, Dallas is 1-2 SU and ATS last 3 home games. The road team gets the money in this one. The set up is perfect, everyone is on the Dallas bandwagon now after their big road trip and now, as per usual, the Cowboys return to Jerry's World and disappoint. Look for the Cowboys to win but not cover as I expect this to be a tight game decided by a one-score margin. Look for a huge game from Heinicke in this one and the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to Arizona in a tough match-up in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +9.5

NFL AFC Total of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER 45.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - Mild weather in Kansas City for this one but driven by strong south winds. That said, the wind should be enough to limit the passing attacks here and I expect a bit of a low-scoring grinder in this one. The Chiefs on a 7-game winning streak and off a high-scoring win at LA against the Chargers but had allowed only 11 points per game in the first 6 victories in the streak. The Steelers have allowed 19 points or less in 2 of last 3 games. Pittsburgh's defense has had some issues at times this season but considering the magnitude of this game in the playoff race I look for the D to deliver another strong game here and the Chiefs defense resumes their recent domination as well. Couple those factors with the potential wind issue here and we should see a bit of a grinders. 10* UNDER 45.5 in Kansas City

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles will take advantage of facing a QB making his first ever NFL start against a division rival hungry for a playoff berth. Also, Jake Fromm on the road for this start. I know the line looks big but the Eagles are 7 wins this season have featured 6 by a double digit margin with those 6 wins having an average victory margin of 19.5 points per game. In other words, don't let the big line keep you away from this one. The Giants are a bit of a mess right now and firing the offensive coordinator has not helped. New York is still struggling. The Giants have lost 10 of 14 games this season and 6 of their last 7 losses have been by 11 or more points! In fact, those 6 defeats have come by an average margin of 18.8 points per game. This one gets ugly! 8* PHILADELPHIA -10.5

NFL Primetime Punisher NFL 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Cardinals have lost back to back games and 3 straight home games! Not much home field edge here for Arizona. As for the Colts, they are one of the hottest teams around with going 8-3 last 11 games! Indianapolis is off a key win over the Patriots but they will not let up here and the key is they also had a bye week before facing New England. The Colts are the fresher team and hotter and they are still chasing the Titans for the top spot in the division so, again, no letdown here! The Colts have covered 9 of last 11 road games and I will take the points here but don't expect to need them as Arizona is starting to doubt themselves. B2B losses and 3 straight defeats at home...the doubts are creeping in on this team and this Colts team is even better than their full season record indicates. Keep in mind they started the season a poor 0-3 so they have come a long way since then. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +2.5

NFL Afternoon Thrasher Saturday 8* Cleveland Browns +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:30 ET - The Browns are consistently involved in close games. 6 of their last 8 games decided by 6 or less points! Looking at the Packers last 7 games only 2 of them were GB wins by more than 8 points. Green Bay is off a win over Baltimore while Cleveland is off a loss to the Raiders. Packers have a rest edge here but it is not a big one and the Browns off a loss looks very attractive here. Cleveland has won 5 of 6 games when off a loss and I look for them to again avoid a losing streak here as they bounce back after the loss to Las Vegas last week. We have a cushion to work with here as we are getting 7.5 points so I am speaking about an ATS win here. Loss by 7 or less for the Browns if they don't manage the outright upset. I look for this game to be a tight one decided by a one-score margin. 8* CLEVELAND +7.5

CFB Perfection Play Saturday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals +6 vs Georgia State Panthers @ 2:30 ET - Value with the points here. Feel we are getting extra value in this line simply based on the fact that the Panthers went 8-4 ATS this season while the Cardinals went 4-8 ATS this season. There is really not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Ball State is getting about 6 points in this one. Yes, they come from the MAC and that conference has struggled in these bowls but Georgia State is from the Sun Belt Conference and that is certainly not a powerhouse conference. The Cards have had extra bowl prep time to prepare for a Panthers offense that is rather ground-heavy while I feel strongly that the Cardinals have the better passing attack and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one. 10* BALL STATE +6

NFL Thursday Thrasher 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Titans are off a loss at Pittsburgh but they nearly doubled up the Steelers in yardage. Tennessee was simply done in by turnovers in that game and this is helping to give us line value here. Keep in mind this Titans team has beaten the Colts twice this season plus the Chiefs, Rams, and Bills. Tennessee can beat anybody on any given Sunday and love them in this spot as a home dog against an over-valued 49ers team! 10* TENNESSEE +3

CFB Game of the Week Thursday 10* Top Play Central Florida Knights +7 vs Florida Gators @ 7 ET - Too many points. Florida has not covered 6 straight games. Central Florida, in this match-up, is like the little brother facing the big brother, an SEC team from the same state. That said, the more motivated team to (no offense intended) to be playing in the Gasparilla Bowl rather than a bigger bowl closer to (or on) New Year's is going to the Knights. They will prove to be the team that wants this more. UCF has won 5 of 6 games SU and here they are getting a full 7 points. Florida's only 3-5 SU last 8 games and one of those wins was by just 3 points and the other 2 were against Samford and a bad Vanderbilt team. The Gators just have not shown us much this season and I expect more of the same in this bowl game. 10* UCF +7

CFB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 54.5 in North Texas Mean Green vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 3:30 ET - The over is on a 3-1 run last 4 games for Miami-Ohio. The Redhawks have scored an average of 40 points last 4 games. The Mean Green have averaged 36 points last 5 games. This total is only in the mid-50s yet should get to at least 60s or even 70s the way these teams have been going in terms of offensive production. 10* OVER 54.5 in North Texas

CFB Bowl Annihilation Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 53 in Missouri Tigers vs Army Black Knights @ 8 ET - The Black Knights option attack is likely to give the Missouri defense a lot of trouble. It is simply an offensive attack the Tigers are not use to seeing. The other side of the equation is that Army rarely faces a passing attack as potent as what Missouri possesses. Given the above factors, I am looking for plenty of points in this one and we have a rather low total to work with here. I'll take it! 10* OVER 53 in Missouri

CFB Money Line Game of the Month Tuesday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs Money Line -135 vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7:30 ET - With the line in the -2.5 to -3 range I feel it is well worth it to lay just a little extra juice and take the Aztecs at -135 on the money line in this game. I just don't see San Diego State losing this game. The Aztecs are off an embarrassing 46 to 13 loss in the MWC Title Game and will respond big here. Compared to UTSA, San Diego State played the much tougher schedule this season. Also, the Roadrunners don't have the defense that the Aztecs do and that will make a huge difference in this game. In the regular season San Diego State allowed 14.8 points per game in their 11 wins. The Runners allowed 28 points or more in 6 of their 13 games this season. Remember they played a weaker scheduled too but yet, in those 6 games, UTSA allowed 37 points per game! I am grabbing the better defense from the stronger conference that also has additional motivation because they did not play in a bowl game last season and they coming off the ugly MWC Championship Game loss. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE

NFL PA Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Washington Football Team @ 7 ET - The Eagles are rested off a bye week and also much healthier both on the injury front and in terms of covid issues as you compare these two teams heading into this one. That said, I like the Eagles to roll big at home. Philly finally gets a chance to give Washington some payback as they had won 6 in a row from 2017 to 2019 but then lost both meetings last season. Now it is time for the Eagles to resume the domination and their ground game and better health status and the home field edge will all be key factors as they pull away for the double digit win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

NFL Early Blowout Tuesday 9* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +7 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 7 ET - Just too many points now that Seattle has gotten healthier and is playing a little better. The Rams are a quality team but so many times they disappoint and you know the Seahawks are going to bring their "A game" here and that means we should see quite the ball game here. This one likely to go down to the wire and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. That said, we have excellent line value here with the +7 on this one. The Seahawks off B2B wins and though they have 8 losses this season 4 of those were by 3 or less points. The Rams are of B2B wins and covers but had lost 5 straight ATS prior to that. LA appears overvalued here and the road dog gets it done. 9* SEATTLE +7

CFB Daytime Dominator Tuesday Top Play 9* Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 3:30 ET - The Golden Flashes are a MAC school facing a stronger MWC team here. Don't be fooled by their 6-6 record. Wyoming got better on offense as the season went on and the defense, as per usual, has been the consistent backbone for this Cowboys team. That will be the key again here as Kent State struggles to score and also eventually gets worn down by their opponents ground game. 9* WYOMING

NFL NFC North Game of the Year Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - I am aware of the Bears having injury/covid issues which has been particularly impacting to their secondary. However, other players for Chicago will step up as needed and let's not forget that Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is just 1-9 SU in Monday Night games. I know not all of that falls on him but it is still a stat that is hard to ignore and now here the Vikings have to win by 7 or more to beat us. I'll grab the big home dog points. You know the Bears are going to bring it in a divisional game like this at Soldier Field. Also, Chicago has won 5 of last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. The Vikings enter this game on a run that, for me, just makes it tough to trust them at all as a favorite. Minnesota nearly blew last week's huge lead versus Pittsburgh as the Vikings defense has now allowed 30.5 points per game last 4 games. Before getting blown out at Green Bay last week, a loss fueled by turnovers, the Packers had allowed only 17 points per game in their 3 divisional games this season. They will bounce back here and the Bears have allowed only 17 points per game in their last 4 games against the Vikes. Typical contrarian angle for me here as the whole world is looking at the situation with the Bears secondary but there is much more to this game than just that aspect and the hungry home dog finds a way to overcome the adversity. 10* CHICAGO +6.5

NFL Contrarian Crusher 9* Top Play Cleveland Browns -3 vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 5 ET - Long-time followers know that I am a contrarian in my handicapping. Most will be lining up on the Raiders here because it was the Browns with all the covid issues. But that means bettors are overlooking the fact that Las Vegas has lost 5 of 6 games and has had a very rough season due to all the off the field distractions. Even if Baker Mayfield can't go for the Browns or Case Keenum could not go then Nick Mullens, solid NFL experience with 49ers, would likely get the call here. Either way I like the fact that we get the Browns at home just favored by the typical 3 points assigned for home field advantage. I say that because the markets are implying these teams are equal and I just don't think they are right now. The moving of the game from Saturday to Monday has allowed the Browns to get healthier and they will get it done in this one and improve to 6-2 in home games this season. 9* CLEVELAND

CFB Daytime Dominator Monday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane -8.5 vs Old Dominion Monarchs @ 2:30 ET - Both these teams are 6-6 but Tulsa is the vastly superior team and played a much tougher schedule. Also, check out their performances against some quality teams and tell me if you think the Monarchs could have duplicated such efforts. Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State by just 5 and were leading that game in the 4th quarter. Also, the Golden Hurricane hung around with Ohio State until the Buckeyes finally pulled away convincingly over the final 5 minutes. Tulsa also nearly beat Cincinnati outright on the road. I can not imagine Old Dominion coming anywhere close to duplicating those efforts. Also, the Monarchs did not even play last season - covid - but the Golden Hurricane did and went 6-0 in their conference games but then lost their bowl game last season. Most of those players returned this season and their motivation level is very high to close this season differently! Last year they faced an SEC team in the bowls and this season they face a CUSA team. Huge difference and they should win this handily by a solid double digit margin. 10* TULSA -8.5

NFL NFC South Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +11.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 PM ET - The Buccaneers are over-valued here. The Saints have owned this series, last season's playoff loss notwithstanding, for quite some time and actually are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS last 7 regular season meetings. Now I am certainly not saying they will win this game outright but I do expect them to keep this game very competitive throughout. Yes, last week's win was against "only" the Jets but it also was a game in which the Saints got back some key players on offense and that showed in the results. I am well aware the Bucs are the more talented team in this match-up but they continue to be overvalued. Keep in mind a few weeks ago they looked like they would not cover the 3.5 versus Colts but then Fournette got a late TD run when really they were just trying to set up winning field goal. Then last week they were very fortunate to beat the Bills let alone cover the 3.5 as every late break went their way and, again, it was a long late TD run when setting up for FG would have won it. This Bucs team could easily (and should) be just 5-8 ATS this season and the Saints have been a road covering machine and a divisional covering machine in recent seasons and that continues here. Just too many points to give a respectable team like New Orleans even though they are a different team without Winston at QB. Look for Hill to continue to give opponents trouble with his running ability and look for another big game from RB Kamara here as his return last week was big for this team. 10* NEW ORLEANS +11.5

NFL Total of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Not only is there a chance Lamar Jackson might play, bone bruise rather than ankle sprain, there is no denying that Tyler Huntley has played quite well in his last two appearances for this Ravens offense as his back-up. Either way I like the over a ton in this spot. Baltimore is off an over at Cleveland and, though their most recent home game was an under, the Ravens preceding 4 game stretch of home games went 3-1 to the over. The Packers have a QB by the name of Aaron Rodgers you might have heard of! In all seriousness, Rodgers can break down defenses with the best of him and Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 run to the over the last 3 games! The Pack has scored an average of 37.3 ppg during this stretch but also allowed 30.7 points per game and I look for this one to be a very entertaining affair. Also, from a weather standpoint, if this game was an early game the winds might be an issue but as it is played toward evening hours the winds are expected to be subsiding by then and really be no issue at all in this one. 10* OVER 43.5 in Baltimore

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* New York Giants +12 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys are over-priced here even though the Giants will again be without QB Daniel Jones. New York is on a 7-2 ATS run against divisional foes. You know this team is going to be "up" for hosting the division leaders as well. About hosting, note that the Giants are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 games at home! Now, I am not saying they will win this game outright but I am saying they should keep this one to a single digit margin. The Cowboys are 9-4 SU this season but only 3 of those games have been Dallas wins by more than 10 points. This one likely decided by a single score as I see it! 8* NEW YORK GIANTS +12

NFL Saturday Slaughter - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2 vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are 6-0 on the road this season and the Colts are 3-4 at home this season. Why is Indianapolis favored here? Exactly! At the end of the day, the odds makers are the sharpest people around long-term. Sure things fluctuate from day to day and week to week and month to month but those guys are extremely good at what they do. The point here is, don't let the line fool you. Many will be piling up on a New England team that has won 7 straight games but the Colts are the play here. Of the Pats road wins, they faced the Bills in a windstorm that completely changed the complexion of that game. Their other road wins are against the 8-6 Chargers but then 4 teams that are a combined 16-36 on the season! In other words, this is going to be a tougher test than most anything that the Pats have faced on the road this season. Colts hungry to make a statement at home. 10* INDIANAPOLIS 

CFB Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -6.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:30 ET - I know this UAB team is respectable for sure and I know the location of the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA also favors them. However, the line move on BYU from 8.5 to 6.5 has helped to raise this one to top play level for me. BYU started the season with 5 straight wins and ended the season with 5 straight wins. The two losses were in the middle of that were against Boise State and Baylor. No shame in losing to those two teams. Conversely, the Blazers were a 23.5 points dog versus Georgia and lost by 49 points. Also, UAB lost to Liberty by 24 and also got upset by Rice even though they were favored by 24 points in that one! Yes the Blazers should not have lost their game with UTSA and the Roadrunners did have a great season but the fact is UAB did lose it and they play in the CUSA which is certainly resulted in them playing a much weaker schedule than the 10-2 Cougars did! Look for Brigham Young to prove to be too much in this one. 10* BYU -6.5

CFB Top Annihilation Friday 10* Top Play OVER 62.5 in Cure Bowl @ 6 ET - Northern Illinois faced a tougher strength of schedule but, other than that, all the edges here appear to line up with Coastal Carolina. However, I am never too excited to lay double digits particularly in an early bowl season match-up. That said, the best value here does appear to be with the over in this one. Yes I know both teams like to run the ball a lot which normally lends itself to unders but I feel each rushing attack holds a big edge over the run D they are going against and this game should see some big breakaway runs too as a result. Some quicker scoring strikes than you would expect. Also, the passing game for each, particularly Coastal Carolina, is strong enough that the defenses certainly can not just stack the box to stop the run here. The quarterbacks have had solid success and the Huskies are off an under but 5 of 6 games before that went over the total. As for the Chanticleers, they have averaged 40.4 points per game on the season! 10* OVER 62.5 in Cure Bowl (CC/N.Ill)

CFB Earliest Cash Friday 8* OVER 49.5 in Bahamas Bowl @ Noon ET - Toledo has a potent offense and I just do not see Middle Tennessee State being able to stop them. However, I also do not trust laying double digits with the Rockets especially after they opened up around a TD favorite. The best value here appears to be with the over as the Blue Raiders did average 30 points per game this season on offense and are hungry as, just like the Rockets, this is their first bowl since 2018. Don't trust either defense and the offenses rule the day in this one. 8* OVER 49.5 in Bahamas Bowl (Toledo/MTSU)

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have been hot but they faced a fading Raiders team twice during this 6-game win streak. They also faced a Giants team that is now 4-9 and faced the Packers when they were without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs also benefited from 3 turnovers in their wins over the Cowboys and Broncos and actually were outgained 404 to 267 by Denver in that deceiving 22-9 win. Give KC credit for getting all these wins but the point is that there has been some good fortune in there too. Now facing the #2 team in their division that can tie them in the standings with a win on Thursday, Chiefs are in for a real challenge here. I like the Chargers a lot as a home dog here. Both these teams have strong passing offenses but the key could be the pass defense here. Based on yardage allowed, the pass defense of LA far superior to that of KC on the season. The home team wins the air battle here in this one and, in doing so, also wins the game. 10* LA CHARGERS +3

NFL NFC West Game of the Year - NFL 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Jaguars were just what the doctor ordered for the Rams! Last week's blowout win by 30 over Jacksonville was exactly what Los Angeles needed. Building momentum off that huge victory I look for LA to come up big again here. Yes, they lost to the Cardinals earlier this season at home but the Rams got the series sweep both SU and ATS each of the two prior seasons. Also, the bad news for the Cards here is that this game is at home. All kidding aside, the fact is that the road team is 5-0 SU/ATS in the Cardinals last 5 games! I look for that trend to continue here as LA is not happy at all about the way the first game between these teams this season played out. They will respond big here. The Rams are two games behind Arizona in the NFC West standings but after tonight there are still 4 games to go in the regular season and LA can move within 1 game of the Cardinals with a win tonight. Look for them to get it as they resume their series dominance plus make it 6 in a row in terms of road team victories in Cards games. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +2.5

NFL NFC North Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43 in Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Decent weather expected for this one with winds near 10 mph, no precipitation and temperatures in the mid-30s. Not bad at all by mid-December Green Bay standards. Also, quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields both expected to start for their respective teams in this one. I know the Bears offense does not excite but Fields was showing some promise with the way he was playing before he ended up out for a few games. His running ability also makes thing tough on defenses. As for Rodgers he often comes up huge in the big game settings and I look for him to do the same in this Sunday night. The Packers are averaging 28 points per game at home this season and are off a bye week which followed GB averaging 33.5 points the prior two games. The Bears have gone over the total in 3 of last 5 games and did score at least 22 points in all 3 of those games. Chicago has allowed 29 points or more in 4 of last 6 games. The Packers have averaged 33.3 points in last 3 games versus Bears and I expect another big effort here in that regard but something tells me the visitors are going to respond huge with getting a boost of momentum with Fields back under center and this game will surprise many by getting into the 50+ range for total points scored. 10* OVER 43 in Green Bay

NFL Non-Conf Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills +3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - The Bills are on short rest this week and the Bucs have regular rest. I certainly understand that factor. However, the fact Buffalo lost at home Monday versus the Patriots and they are 4-0 SU/ATS this season when off a loss has me liking the Bills a ton in this spot. Buffalo won those 4 games by a combined score of 137 to 34 says a lot. No, this game will not be a blowout like that but the point is the Bills respond very well off losses and I like them to at least get the cover in this one. Keep in mind, Buffalo has only lost the money once in last dozen games as a road dog and also they have covered all but 1 of last 10 in non-conference action. Tampa Bay has won and covered 3 in a row but this team was 3-6 ATS on the season prior to that. The Bills have the much better pass defense and rushing offense and I look for both of those factors to help lead the way to a road cover, if not outright win, in this one! 10* BUFFALO +3.5

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Washington Football Team +5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Washington has won and covered 4 in a row overall plus they are at home for this one. They beat Dallas in both meetings last season and are playing with a lot of confidence and momentum right now. The Cowboys had failed, both SU and ATS, in 3 of last 4 before the win over the Saints last week. I know Dallas has a little rest edge coming into this one since they last played on Thursday but the Football Team is really starting to believe they can make a run for post-season and absolutely have a shot at 5 in a row here and can narrow gap with Cowboys. Keep in mind they face them again at Dallas in two weeks. Huge game today and value with the home dog. 8* WASHINGTON +5

CFB Blowout Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 34.5 in Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen @ 3 ET - This series has a recent history of unders but this one is going to play out different. Since they demoted their offensive coordinator after an ugly start to the season, Navy has scored an average of 23 points per game and they did averaged 36.5 points last two games of the season. Army has scored an average of 35.5 points per game this season. Now, of course, I am well aware that these are option teams which helps the defenses of each team because they are use to seeing the option often, including plenty of it in practice throughout the season. However, I still feel this total is far too low considering the numbers I just mentioned above. We are not likely to see numbers quite that big here but I am expecting at least a  24-17 or 27-20 type game here and that gets us well past the posted total on this game. 10* OVER 34.5 in Army

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers are off a key divisional win versus Baltimore where their defense had to give a tremendous effort. Now it is a short week situation for them and they may struggle to slow down the Vikings on the road here. The over is 2-0 in Pittsburgh's last two road games. The over is 3-0 in Minnesota's last 3 games overall. While I do fully expect the Vikes to score well here (Dalvin Cook is expected to be ready to go here), I do not trust this Minny defense at all. The Vikings off a disheartening last second loss to the Lions. Note that Minnesota has now allowed 28 points or more in 3 straight games and 5 of their last 7. Pittsburgh has allowed 27 points or more in 3 of last 4 road games and the Steelers gave up 41 in each of last two road games! 10* OVER 43.5 in Minnesota

NFL ESPN Blowout - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The weather is going to be quite bad tonight in terms of winds which is going to make the ground game more important in this one. Statistically, both teams are solid in terms of running the ball but in terms of rush defense the Bills rate much better. That plus home field could make a huge difference in this game. Also, in terms of cold weather familiarity and dealing with blustery winds, Bills QB Josh Allen played his college ball at Wyoming while Mac Jones played at Alabama. These couple keys I just mentioned may seem like minor ones but they do carry some weight here and can be a difference maker in a key divisional battle like this. The Patriots have certainly been the hotter team of late but I like the Bills in this one at home and looking to make up for the embarrassing effort against the Colts the last time they played here at Orchard Park. 10* BUFFALO -2.5

NFL SNF Blowout - 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - This looks like the perfect spot for the Chiefs to put it all together. They are facing a rival they typically dominate. They are coming off a bye week. They have won 4 straight. Speaking of 4 straight wins, Kansas City has won last 4 meetings with Broncos by sweeping them each of past two seasons. The Chiefs beat Denver by an average margin of 19.3 points in those 4 wins. I know the Sunday Night pointspread may seem a little steep but don't let it scare you away. Remember, before last week's Broncos win Denver lost by 17 at home versus the Eagles. Also, the Chiefs have played the tougher schedule this season thusfar in comparison with Denver as KC has had games against Buffalo, Tennessee, and Green Bay. This game is priced high for a season and I expect a huge game from Mahomes with the advantage of the added prep time and I look for the Chiefs defense to really get after Bridgewater in this one. The KC defense will have their ears pinned back and they have allowed 17 or less points in 5 of last 6 games. More of the same here. 10* KANSAS CITY

NFL AFC North Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 44 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:25 ET - Decent weather expected in Pittsburgh considering it is December. Even though this is a rivalry game, 3 of the last 4 have gone over the total. I am expecting big games from Roethlisberger and Jackson in this one. Both signal-callers were a part of turnover-filled games last week and both guys are fully capable of huge bounce back efforts here. Ben has a 14-6 TD-INT ratio this season and Lamar is also an NFL MVP. Jackson will bounce back in a key big game here and same for Big Ben. The over is 5-2 in the Steelers last 7 games and I look for that trend to continue here. The Ravens have a dangerous ground game and Pittsburgh struggles to stop the run. Both teams can air it out and I expect that to be the case in this game as well. This is just one of those rare situations where you have two strong QB's both in a bounce back situation and both i a huge game and the way all this fell with this scheduling situation and the solid weather too, all factors came together for a big play here. 10* OVER 44 in Pittsburgh

NFL Earliest Rout - 8* Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - This line dropped significantly because of QB Hurts is expected to miss this game and Minshew will get the call. Minshew has 2 seasons in the NFL under his belt and threw for 37 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and he played those two years for a Jacksonville team that went a combined 7-25. Read that sentence again. Do you see my point? He played for a bad team and yet put up some incredible numbers. I just do not think this is even worthy of a drop in the line. Philly is off a frustrating loss to the Giants and will bounce back huge against a very bad Jets team. Note that the Jets are off a win but over a bad Houston team and, prior to this, they had lost 8 of 10 games and all but one of those losses were by 7 or more points. The Eagles had won 3 of 4 before the loss to the Giants and all 3 wins were by double digits. I expect this victory will also be by 10+ points. Lay it. 8* PHILADELPHIA -5

CFB Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 57.5 in California Golden Bears vs USC Trojans @ 11 PM ET - Both teams are 4-7 now with no shot at bowl eligibility. This a rescheduled game from about a month ago when covid forced a cancellation. It is hard to imagine there being much defensive intensity for this game considering the circumstances. That said, consider that USC is off a high-scoring game with BYU that saw the teams combine for over 900 yards of offense! The Trojans prior game was against UCLA and totaled 95 points. Southern Cal has a lot of talent on offense and skilled players that can do some damage against this California defense in the open field. The issue for USC is their defense has been failing them this season. Since they started the season 3-2 SU the Trojans have since gone 1-5 SU and allowed 39 points per game! They allowed at least 31 points in each game! I know Cal is off an ugly effort on the road at UCLA but they will score better here at home. The Golden Bears had scored 41 at Stanford the prior week and California's last 4 home games saw one clunker against Washington State but the Bears averaged 36 points per game in the other 3 games. Keep in mind, both teams have no pressure here. The offenses can operate with all systems go and playbooks fully open. There is no pressure to win here but you can bet each team will do the best they can to one-up the other on offense. I have a strong feeling this one gets crazy high-scoring because USC has the skill on offense to make some big plays early and often in this one but their sieve-like defense will struggle against a Bears offense determined to get back on track at home. 10* OVER 57.5 in California

CFB SEC Rout - 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 4 ET - Getting this many points with a high-quality team like Alabama that is in a rare dog role and 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog means I am in! Yes Georgia is having an incredible season but this is now Alabama's Super Bowl for the season per se and I just don't see them being denied here. I am not saying the Tide will indeed win outright but they should keep this close enough to at least get the cash. Two fantastic defenses and the Bulldogs do rate an edge there but, statistically, the Crimson Tide rate a bigger edge on offense. Look for that to be a difference maker in this one in a game that is likely to go down to the wire and that means having the points is a huge edge for us as an outright upset would not surprise me here. Grab the the points for added betting value. 10* ALABAMA +6.5

CFB MWC Blowout - CFB 8* Utah State Aggies +6 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 3 ET - So many of the Aztecs wins are tight wins. San Diego State just does not have the offense to win games by huge margins and I feel the Aggies will keep this one close. Utah State has the better offense in this match-up and in games against common foes, the Aggies were more impressive statistically. Don't be surprised when, in this one, it translates to at least an ATS win and possibly even an outright upset win. Grab the points in this one. 8* UTAH STATE +6

CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks +3 vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - This is a chance at right back revenge after the Utes got the better of the Ducks two weeks ago in a game played at Utah. That game was at Utah. This one is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas as it is a neutral site game for the Pac-12 Championship. Oregon is 4-0 SU all time in the Pac-12 Championship while Utah is 0-2 SU all time in this game. All those games occurring since 2014 so this is not ancient history by any means. I look for the Ducks to keep that trend going as they will be much more relaxed in the rematch after playing with "playoff pressure" in the first meetings as they still had hopes, at that time, of making the CFP group of four. Look for the Ducks offense to be much better in this rematch and to do enough for the outright win but we'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* OREGON +3

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - Good news for Cowboys fans is that this game is not in Dallas. All kidding aside, the fact is that Dallas was 4-0 ATS in road games this season before that recent ugly loss at Kansas City. The Cowboys have had some recent struggles but this passing attack is averaging nearly 300 yards per game this season and I just don't think the Saints can keep up here. Taysom Hill is back at QB for New Orleans this week but what makes him dangerous is his running ability and he is coming back from a foot injury. I don't 100% trust Hill in the passing game and the Saints are averaging less than 200 yards passing per game on the season. New Orleans also is a poor 1-3 SU and ATS in games played in the Superdome this season. They struggle again here and the Cowboys take out some anger and frustration after suffering back to back losses for the first time this season. Look for the Saints to drop their 5th in a row SU and I am confident that the road favorite can win this by 7 or more for the all important cover. 10* DALLAS -5.5

NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +1 @ Washington Football Team @ 8:15 ET - Russell Wilson was not great but he was better in his 2nd start back from the finger injury. Keep in mind that was against an Arizona team with a solid pass defense that is now 9-2 on the season. Yes, Taylor Heinicke is off a strong start last week but it was against his former team and that Panthers team dropped to 5-7 on the year with an embarrassing performance yesterday at Miami. I know that Washington's win at Carolina did follow a huge home dog upset over the Bucs but upsets do happen from time to time. The fact is that Washington was 0-4 ATS at home this season before knocking off Tampa Bay. I will take Wilson and a hungry Seahawks team off B2B losses against Washington (plays in the NFC Least Division!) team led by Heinicke that is off rare B2B wins any time any place. Wilson and the fired up Seahawks make a statement on the road in a Monday Night game with all their NFL peers watching. 10* SEATTLE +1

NFL Primetime Punisher - 8* Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Ravens are 1-3 ATS last 4 home games. Baltimore also had failed to cover 3 straight games before the ugly win at Chicago last week. I know Lamar Jackson is expected back at QB for this one but will he be 100%? The Browns have lost 3 straight meetings with Baltimore and out for revenge here. The Ravens have had one dominating effort, versus the Chargers, at home this season but in the other 4 games as a host Baltimore has allowed an average of 33 points per game and, again, this is at home! The Browns have held their opponents to 16 points or less in 4 of last 5 games! Like the Ravens, Cleveland is off an ugly win as they barely got by Detroit but here they will make up for an ugly road loss at New England. Prior to getting embarrassed by the Patriots, the Browns had gone 3-1 ATS in road games this season. I look for a statement game here from the road dog as they finally step against the "big brother" in the division and knock off Baltimore. I will grab the points as added insurance here but do expect an outright win. 8* CLEVELAND 

NFL Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -1 vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will play through a broken toe here in the freezing cold in Green Bay. Does not sound like fun. This is particularly true against a tough Rams defense. Additionally, that LA defense is angry and rested as the Rams are off their bye week. That was preceded by B2B losses but Los Angeles has only failed to cover the spread twice the last nine times they were off a bye week. In other words, look for the Rams to get the win and cover here. They have plenty of motivation too because they lost at Green Bay 32 to 18 last season. Los Angeles is in dire need of a win here, has revenge, and they have a rest edge. The Packers have lost 2 of 3 and are off a road loss at Minnesota last week. This one is all Rams and, trust me, there is a reason the Packers are a dog here even though they are at home and have the better record on the season. Don't let the line fool you. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -1

NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Tennessee Titans +7 or +7.5 @ New England Patriots @ 1 ET - Yes the Titans have had injury issues and the Patriots have been rolling but this line has gone too far. Tennessee is off a loss at Houston but that was due to a rare 5-0 turnover deficit. The Titans actually outgained the Texans by a margin of 420 to 190 in that game! The fact Tennessee lost that game 22-13 on the scoreboard despite the big yardage edge is what is helping to give us some line value here. The Patriots are hot but are actually just 2-4 SU at home this season and are 5-0 SU on the road. The point is that, playing the road team in New England games this season nets you a 9-2 SU record and we are getting a full TD with the Titans here. I'll take it as I look for them to bounce back off last week's sloppy loss. Tennessee is 4-1 SU and ATS in road games this season. Titans on a long-term 5-1 ATS run as a road dog. 8* TENNESSEE +7 or +7.5

CFB Bedlam Blowout - 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - I know the Cowboys defense has been incredible this season but the Sooners offense can be special and that is particularly true in this rivalry game that always seems to bring out the best in Oklahoma. The Sooners have actually won each of the last 6 meetings and need a win here to make sure they make the Big 12 title game! Of course Oklahoma State has no shortage of motivation either but can the Cowboys not only win but also cover this spread? I do not think so and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least but seeing this line up to +4.5 means even more value with the underdog in this one. The Sooners just always seem to find a way to ruin everything for the Cowboys in this match-up. Keep in mind, Oklahoma State was a dog of an average of 10 points in the past two meetings but lost those games by an average margin of 23 points! The Sooners do it again as they have the better passing attack in this match-up and that will end up being the difference here. Oklahoma State has ended up over-valued in this game because they are on a miracle 9-0 ATS run. That run ends here! 10* OKLAHOMA +4.5

CFB Daytime Dominator - 10* Top Play OVER 63 in Virginia Cavaliers vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 3:45 ET - I know this is a rivalry game and that tends to raise defensive intensity. However, the last meeting here between these teams totaled 69 points and I am expecting at least that here. Virginia has a potent offense but can not stop anyone, expect Duke in that shutout win last month. The Cavaliers other 8 games since mid-September, so not including the Blue Devils game, saw Virginia allow 42.5 points per game! The Hokies definitely have the better defense in this match-up but, keep in mind, Virginia Tech is facing a Cavs offense that has helped lead the way to them scoring at least 30 in 9 of 11 games this season. In fact, in those 9 games Virginia has scored an average of 41.2 points per game! The Hokies have scored 37 points per game past two games and will enjoy success here against a struggling Cavs defense. The Cavaliers are particularly bad (5.7 ypc) against the run and once Virginia Tech establishes the ground attack here that opens things up through the air. This one turns into quite the back and forth shootout as a result. 10* OVER 63 in Virginia

CFB Earliest Cash - 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders +14.5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - Red Raiders off a home shutout loss to Oklahoma State. However, they have performed well off a loss this season and have not suffered back to back ATS losses all season. Texas Tech is known for playing the Bears tough and they have actually gone 8-1 ATS last 9 visits to Waco! Overall, it is a 5-2 ATS run for the Red Raiders in this series. Yes, Baylor is a rock solid team and has Big 12 Championship Game aspirations still alive. However, the Bears are 5-2 SU last 7 games in conference action but only 1 win by more than a 14 point margin. The Red Raiders bounce back off their shutout loss. Their defense will bounce back too after allowing 52 points at Oklahoma in most recent road game but allowing only 17 points per game in the two Big 12 road games before that. 8* TEXAS TECH +14.5

ACC Total of the Month - CFB 10* OVER 61.5 in NC State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7 ET - This total has been dropping and now is offering solid line value on the over as weather conditions in Raleigh will be excellent this evening as well. The Wolfpack are averaging 37 points at home this season. I know NC State has a solid defense but the Tar Heels offense is a rock solid one with Sam Howell under center. Howell missed last week's game versus Wofford but is expected back for this one. North Carolina has averaged 40 points per game last 10 games. So you can see why I am expecting both teams to score well here because this Tar Heels offense is one of the top units in the country. But this UNC defense, in looking at last 8 games against FBS opponents (Wofford is FCS) the Tar Heels had one good effort - allowed 7 points versus Duke. In the other 7 games the Heels allowed an average of 41.4 points per game! The over is 6-3 in North Carolina's last 9 games against FBS schools. The over is 4-1 in last 5 home games for Wolfpack. Those trends continue here. 10* OVER 61.5 in NC State

AAC Game of the Year - CFB 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates +14 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Pirates opened this season with a loss by 14 points. Since then, East Carolina has not had a loss by more than 7 points. Overall, the Pirates have won 7 of last 9 games SU and had covered 6 in a row before last week's 3-point SU win fell just short of the cover. East Carolina is catching the Bearcats off a huge 48-14 win over SMU last week. Cincinnati finally had that dominating win everyone was waiting for as their perfect season (11-0 SU) continues. However, the Bearcats entered that game on an 0-4 ATS run and I expect this road game against a confident Pirates team to be one of their toughest games of this season. This looks like a very tricky spot on the schedule to wrap up the regular season. 10* EAST CAROLINA +14

NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -6 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - After getting completely embarrassed on their home field by the Colts last week, the Bills bounce back strong here. The Saints have struggled without starting QB Winston and have dealt with other injury issues as well. New Orleans now has lost 3 straight games and an angry Buffalo team is surely going to show no mercy here either. The Bills have a solid passing attack and the Saints struggle to stop the pass. On the flip side, the Saints struggle to move the ball through the air and Buffalo, overall, has one of the best defensive units in the league. The Bills are 3-0 SU/ATS this season when off a loss and, in all 10 of their games this season the SU winner has also been the ATS winner. Look for those patterns to continue here in this one. Bills also on an 8-1 ATS run in non-conference match-ups and, keep in mind, they did not just lose last week...they got blasted. That is the kind of defeat strong teams bounce back from in a strong way! 10* BUFFALO -6

CFB Rivalry Dominator - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7:30 ET - The Rebels defense has improved some over original expectations and actually allowing only 16.8 points per game last 3 games. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is averaging over 515 yards of offense per game and that includes 232 yards on the ground! Compare that to a Bulldogs offense that is averaging only 61 yards per game on the ground on the season! So you have an underdog that should dominate the ground game in this one and whose defense has played better in recent games. I like my chances with the points here as I also point back to the recent crazy game with the Aggies where the Rebels had about 400 yards of offense in the first half but less than 20 points to show for it. I know what this offense is capable of doing and, in a rivalry game that is the final game of the regular season, I look for Ole Miss to bring it. Yes this will be their 9th straight week with a game but the situation for Mississippi State is not much different as this is their 7th straight week with a game. Also, in a rivalry game with so much at stake for each team, neither will be flat or playing tired here. Give me the points with an underdog that can run all over the favorite. 10* OLE MISS +2.5

NFL Non-Conf Total of the Month - 10* Top Play OVER 51.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:30 ET - Both teams hungry to get back on track. The Cowboys and Raiders are each off very disappointing low-scoring losses and each will be better for it this week. Dallas scored 43 points in their most recent home game. I know Las Vegas has been struggling to score much for an extended stretch but the Cowboys are not a great pass defense and Carr and the Raiders will take advantage. Prescott-led Dallas will take advantage of facing a Raiders defense that struggles against the run. Getting the Cowboys ground game going will open up the ability to attack through the air and Dallas has one of the top offensive units in the league and Prescott has the ability to pick them apart when he is on like he was in most recent home game. More of the same here and, with the Cowboys offense being very aggressive off a loss and scoring plenty of points here, it will force the Raiders to have to pass a ton to try and score enough to keep up here. The end result will be plenty of points. 10* OVER 51.5 in Dallas

NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Detroit Lions +3 vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - Detroit still seeking that first win of the season and they know this game is one of their best chances remaining on the schedule. That said, I feel they will not let this opportunity pass them by. Chicago is a mess right now as rumors swirl that their head coach could be fired after this game regardless of the outcome. As for the Lions, they have been more competitive recently with a 3-point loss at Cleveland and a 16-all tie at Pittsburgh. Detroit is now hosting a Bears team that has lost 5 straight games. Another key for Lions is Jared Goff is expected back under center. That was the news that broke last night and is part of the reason I waited till this morning to release my Thanksgiving Day selections. Here is the first of my big card. 8* DETROIT +3

CFB Tuesday Crusher - 10* OVER 58.5 in Ball State Cardinals vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The Bulls lost QB Kyle Vantrease to season-ending injury and he did not play last week's game. But that allowed Matt Myers to get action last week. He actually has a TD-INT ratio of 4-1 this season and also has scored 4 TDs on the ground! Myers is leading a Bulls team that will play without pressure this week because their OT loss to Northern Illinois last week ended their hopes of becoming bowl eligible. As for Ball State, the hosts in this one need one more win for bowl eligibility. The Cardinals should have no trouble scoring plenty against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 45 points per game last 3 games. Also, on the road this season - other than a dominating win at Akron against a bad Zips team - the Bulls allowed 39 points per game in 4 road games. With the Cards having scored at least 28 points in 5 of 6 games before last week's tough game against Central Michigan, I fully expect a huge bounce back for the  Cardinals offense in this one. 10* OVER 58.5 in Ball State

Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS +11.5 - The Bucs are off B2B losses. Yes I know TB is back home and those two losses were on the road. However, Tampa Bay is 4-0 at home but lets take a closer look. The biggest win was actually the smallest margin win as the Buccaneers did beat the Cowboys by 2 points to open up the season. However, the other 3 wins were against teams that are now a combined 11-20 this season. Now of course I know the Giants are only 3-6 on the season but 2 of their SU wins have come in the last 3 games and, overall, they are on a 3-0 ATS run. Giants are also a solid 3-1 ATS in road games this season and the points should prove well worth the taking here. The Bucs are starting to question themselves after the B2B losses and Brady INT's, etc. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being tight as a result. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +11.5

NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +6 - The Steelers will have Roethlisberger back under center and I look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of facing a Chargers team that has allowed an average of 31 points per game last 5 games. Yes the Steelers are off disappointing tie last week versus Detroit but I look for having Big Ben back to make a big difference in this game. The Steelers had averaged 23.5 points per game in winning 4 straight games prior to that tie. Also, Pittsburgh has allowed only 18.4 points per game last 5 games. Keep in mind we don't need them to win this game outright either, rather we just need them to at least stay within the number and I like our changes of that. I feel this Chargers team is over-rated and they have lost 3 of games and also only have one win by more than 6 points this entire season! Lot of value with the points here. 10* PITTSBURGH +6

NFL The Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Las Vegas - The Raiders have run into major issues this season but this is still a team that can score a lot of points. Particularly this is true when taking on a Bengals team that has allowed a total of 75 points last two games. Also, electric environment for Vegas home games and the over is 4-1 when Raiders have hosted this season. The over is 3-0 in Cincinnati's last 3 games overall. Look for these over trends to continue here. Both teams strength on offense is the passing game so that helps overs too. This is particularly true when dealing with a Bengals pass defense that ranks in the bottom 25% of the league. Also, the Raiders pass defense got torched for over 400 yards last week by a Chiefs offense that had been struggling. That does not bode well for the LV defense Sunday as they face a Bengals offense that has had two weeks to prepare for this game and certainly paid attention to how the Chiefs torched the Raiders defense last week. Yes, Cincinnati got hammered and scored just 16 points in the loss to Cleveland before their bye week but the Bengals had scored an average of 35 points the 3 prior games. Raiders had scored more than 30 points in 3 of 4 games before last week's dismal effort versus the Chiefs and they will bounce back here. 10* OVER 50.5 in Las Vegas

NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Baltimore -5 - The Ravens are angry off a horrible effort on Thursday night football at Miami last week. Baltimore has some extra rest heading into this game and will be in a fighting mood. I know the Bears also have extra rest because they are off a bye week but note that Chicago is 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they were off a bye. Statistically, the Bears have one of the worst offenses in the league this season while the Ravens have been one of the best. That said, I look for the road favorite to pull away as this game goes on as Chicago does not have the offense to keep up. I like taking strong teams off losses and the Ravens respond big here. 8* BALTIMORE

CFB Big 12 Total of the Month - OVER 55.5 in Texas Tech - Yes the Oklahoma State defense has been playing very well but lets not forget two things. One is that the Cowboys have huge game with Oklahoma on deck. Secondly, this Red Raiders team just put up 41 points against a very solid Iowa State defense here in Lubbock. The fact is that Texas Tech is known for scoring well at home and they will build momentum off that huge upset win last week too. The Red Raiders have seen the over go 3-1 in last 4 home games and those 3 overs each totaled at least 75 points. Also, the last two times the Cowboys faced Texas Tech, the games both went over an each totaled at least 80 points. Yes I understand the total posted here based strictly on defensive numbers for OSU but could some of their defensive intensity be held back for the Bedlam game versus rival Oklahoma next week? At the same time the Cowboys offense is off a 62-point outburst and should have no problem easily rolling through a Red Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 39 points last 7 games. Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith played very well last week and that continues here as this Red Raiders offense continues to build up confidence. By the way high temperatures near 80 Saturday afternoon in Lubbock and the winds subsiding by kick-off so no factor there either. 10* OVER 55.5 in Texas Tech

Pac-12 Game of the Year - 10* Top Play UTAH -3 - Love the set up here. All the pressure is on Oregon as they are trying to retain their top four positioning in the CFP rankings. Not only that the Ducks are on the road here and facing a Utah team hell bent on revenge after losing the 2019 Pac-12 Championship Game to Oregon by double digits. Look for the Utes to take advantage of home field here and playing more pressure-free than the Ducks. Of course there is a reason that Utah is favored by 3 even though the Ducks are ranked much higher in the top 25 than they are. Not going to say the odds makers are setting a trap intentionally but will say this line is set this way with good reason. Note Ducks are on a 4-8 ATS run as a dog away from home and the Utes have covered 68% of their last 25 games in Pac-12 action. The Utes were done in by turnovers the last time these teams met but the first downs were nearly equal in that match-up. Ducks averaging 28 points per game their last 3 on the road. Utes averaging 41 points per game last 6 games. Look for the hosts and their brand of physical football to wear down Oregon as this game goes on and they will pull away in the latter stages of this one for a solid home victory. 10* UTAH -3

CFB Afternoon Annihilation - 8* SMU +10 - The Bearcats have failed to cover 4 straight games. Those games were against weaker competition too. Now Cincinnati has to step up and face a tougher foe. Certainly the undefeated Bearcats have the much better defense in this match-up but SMU has a very dangerous offense and their only two losses this season were each by single digits. Last year Cincinnati rolled the Mustangs at SMU but the final score of 42 to 13 hides the fact that the losing team actually had a 22 to 17 edge in first downs! I feel this Mustangs offense, especially with RB Bentley now back in the lineup and off a strong game, is absolutely going to give the Bearcats all they can handle here! Mustangs averaging 42 points and 500 yards per game this season. Cincinnati may finally see their unbeaten season come to an end but, if not, definitely expecting this one to be decided by only a single score because the SMU defense will be fired up about facing the undefeated Bearcats and should have one of their best games of the season. Note that the Mustangs have allowed more than 28 points only 3 times in 10 games this season. In those other 7 games they have allowed an average of 19.6 points per game. This one goes to the wire! 10* SMU +10

Earliest Cash - 10* OVER 48.5 in Louisiana Tech - I know Southern Mississippi has trended under and wants to slow games down but this total is just too low especially after moving lower. Louisiana Tech scores well and they are at home and they will dictate the pace in this game. The over is 7-3 in Bulldogs games this season. The last two meetings between these teams also have gone over and the most recent game here in Ruston totaled 75 points. 10* OVER 48.5 in Louisiana Tech

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #312 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +7 vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - Look for Falcons to bounce back off ugly loss at Dallas. Atlanta has covered 6 of last 7 against AFC opponents. I know the Patriots are hot but they are on a 3-5 ATS run in non-conference games and just laying too many points on the road in this one. New England is now over-valued because of their winning streak and Falcons undervalued because of ugly loss to Cowboys last week. Patriots last week caught Browns when Cleveland was off huge divisional win over Bengals at Cincinnati the prior week. Other teams faced during the NE win streak include a Panthers team that entered the game losers in 4 of 5 and a Chargers team that has now lost 3 of 4 and a Jets team that is 2-7 on the season. Now they face a Falcons team that had won 4 of 6 prior to the loss at Dallas last week. That said, we are not asking Atlanta to win this game but just to cover the TD spread and I fully expect they will do at least that here. 10* ATLANTA +7 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #313 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 60 in Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals @ 7:30 ET - The Blue Devils defense has been atrocious this season but at home the offense has performed well as Duke has averaged 36.6 points per game. Whether or not Gunnar Holmberg is back this week, both the #2 and #3 Blue Devils quarterbacks got some work last week and I expect Duke's success scoring points at home to continue here. The issue for the Blue Devils however is their defense can stop no one. Duke has allowed 42.4 points per game last 7 games. Louisville comes into this one averaging 30 points per game this season and they will enjoy special success greater than that against a bad Blue Devils defense tonight. The key here is the hosts should score well also and note that the Cardinals are allowing 32.8 points per game away from home this season. More of the same here and plenty of points in this one as a result. 10* OVER 60 in Duke

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls +1.5 vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Huskies off another tight win and that has been the key for them this season but their luck runs out here. I know Northern Illinois needs just one more win to clinch the MAC West but I also know this is the home finale for Buffalo plus the Bulls need to win this game and their season finale next week to get to 6 wins to be bowl eligible. You also know the Bulls would love to play role of spoiler here against the Huskies. Buffalo does not want them clinching MAC West on their field! The Bulls averaged 36.4 ppg at home and allowing 28.2 ppg while Northern Illinois averaging 28.0 ppg and allowing 38.8 ppg on the road this season. 10* BUFFALO +1.5

MAC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - Why is Western Michigan favored by nearly a full TD over a team that shares identical records (overall and MAC) with them? Particularly one can ask that question when you consider that the Broncos are on the road for this one too! Well the fact is that Eastern Michigan is the much weaker team defensively. This includes the Eagles struggling against the run and the Broncos offense is the much better ground game in this match-up. Indeed there is a match-up issue here for Eastern Michigan and I look for Western Michigan to take full advantage! The Broncos seek revenge here for losing to the Eagles each of the last two seasons as well. Do not let the line fool you here. It is set this way with good reason and the road team has the edges on both sides of the ball in this one. As a result, look for a road rout here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN -5.5

MNF Blowout - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are off an ugly home loss to the Titans but outgained Tennessee by a substantial margin so it was a deceiving final score. Prior to that loss, Los Angeles was 7-1 on the season and only 1 of the wins was by less than 9 points! That is why I am fully comfortable laying the short number on the road here. I like taking good teams off losses. Yes, the Niners are off a loss too but San Francisco has now lost 5 of last 6 games and each of their last 4 losses were by 7 or more points. Look for this one to be by at least that margin as well. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5

AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #263 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - There are 4 teams the Raiders have faced this season that the Chiefs have not faced and those teams entered this week's action with a combined record of 14-20. There are 5 teams Kansas City has faced that Las Vegas has not faced and those teams have a combined record of 26-17. The other 4 teams each has faced are common opponents on the schedule thus far. The point is that the Chiefs have faced the tougher schedule thus far. I know KC continues to underachieve at the betting window as they are on a long-term ugly ATS run. However, this line is a 2.5 and all 5 of the Kansas City wins this season have been by 3 or more points. I highly doubt the spread is going to come into play in this game. The SU winner will very likely be the ATS winner. The Raiders have dealt with a lot (Gruden, Ruggs) this season and it is starting to catch up with them. Las Vegas has lost 3 of 5 games SU and is on a 2-4 ATS run. The Raiders only two wins during this stretch were over a bad Eagles team that has lost 6 of 9 this season and over a Broncos team that was slumping at the time and ended up with a 4-game losing streak. The Chiefs have underachieved so far this season but this is after huge success in recent years and I really expect them to raise things to another level down the stretch run of the season. Certainly this KC team has the pedigree to do just that. This is the time of year that separates the contenders from the pretenders and with the Chiefs a 1/2 game back in the standings (one more loss than the Raiders) they need this game and I feel strongly they will rise to the occasion here behind a huge game from Mahomes as he puts this team on his back and gets it done in primetime. 10* KANSAS CITY -2.5

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #259 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Packers get Aaron Rodgers back at QB and they have their full complement of wide receivers back. Seahawks get Russell Wilson back at QB this week. It is snowing Sunday morning in Green Bay but the fact this is a later game helps us in that regard. The snow will be gone and the winds will be subsiding by the time this game kicks off. The weather, though chilly of course, should not be a factor here. Also, like the fact the Packers are off a ridiculously low-scoring loss at Kansas City but had Jordan Love at QB and now are back home with Rodgers at QB and taking on a Seahawks defense allowing 402 yards per game this season. The Packers defense has some impressive numbers on the season but the Seattle offense is one of the more dangerous ones in the league when Wilson at the controls. I look for both teams to have wide open playbooks as they are so happy to have their star QB's back and ready to turn them loose so don't be surprised if this game turns into a back and forth shootout! 10* OVER 49.5 in Green Bay