Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-12-21 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +3 | Top | 33-25 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
CFL Grey Cup Sunday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 6 ET - I am aware the Ti-Cats have some injury issues heading into this one but it also is a revenge game from the most recent Grey Cup (2019) and Hamilton is also the host city for this one and we are getting a full +3 here. There is tremendous irony here in how this one will play out. In 2019 Hamilton had a huge season while Winnipeg caught fire late and it carried into a post-season run and the Blue Bombers rode the momentum all the way to winning it all. Now this season it is Winnipeg with the much better regular season record but the Tiger-Cats caught fire late in the season and now riding a post-season streak coming into this one. Again, just very ironic and I feel strongly the same script that played out in the most recent Grey Cup plays out in this one as Hamilton (8-6 regular season) gets it done against Winnipeg (11-3 - top regular season record). Remember we saw this happen in 2019 with Hamilton (15-3) losing to Winnipeg (11-7). Looking closer at this season's standings, note that Ti-Cats went 5-2 at home while the Bombers were 4-3 on road. Also, Winnipeg was 3-2 against the East while Hamilton was 4-2 against the West. Considering all of the above and the fact we can get a full 3 points, I like my changes with a Tiger-Cats team determined to get revenge here in the biggest game of them all. 10* HAMILTON +3 |
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11-28-21 | Calgary +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 30-33 | Push | 0 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +3 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 4:30 ET - The Roughriders are at home, have the better record on the season, and they did beat the Stampeders the last time they faced them. Yet they are a very small favorite here as low as 2.5 in most books as of game day morning. Why is that? You know why! Don't let the line fool you. This game has upset written all over it. Keep in mind, the Riders did lose each of the first two games against the Stamps this season plus they lost both games against Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers and Stampeders are the other two top teams in the West and the Roughriders went a combined 1-4 against those two teams this season. Calgary did go 5-2 on the road this season and will not be intimidated at all in this venue. The Stampeders seemed to get stronger as the season went on and, unlike Saskatchewan, also had some big margin wins in the latter stages of the season. I like the way this road team has been playing and sense a first round upset in this one but will grab the points for added insurance. 10* CALGARY +3 |
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11-28-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton -4.5 | 12-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
CFL Early Crusher - 8* Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 1 ET - Hamilton has unfinished business from the most recent CFL season (2019) when they went 15-3 but then ended up losing in the Grey Cup title game 33 to 12 against Winnipeg. The Tiger-Cats did win a playoff game to get to the title game while Montreal was bounced in the first round of that post-season. I know Hamilton was not as impressive in this regular season but, trust me, they are where they want to be now. They are hosting a playoff game and have a chance to get another shot at the title. The Ti-Cats have the better defense in this match-up and the home field edge and I also love the fact that Alouettes linebacker Patrick Levels gave the home team some bulletin board material by guaranteeing a Montreal win and even calling out a couple Ti-Cats players. Not smart! The highly motivated home team lets their play on the field do the talking while Levels runs his mouth! 8* HAMILTON -4.5 |
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11-19-21 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-43 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Total of the Week - 10* OVER 46.5 in BC Lions - I know the Lions are starting Rourke here at QB but it is with good reason and he has already gained some experience this season and I expect the 23 year old to fare very well here. Keep in mind, the Elks are playing their 3rd game in 7 days in a scheduling quirk to close out the regular season. Edmonton is off an upset win at Toronto Tuesday. Look for BC to throw all over a tired Elks defense and stretch them out here. However, the Elks will have some success when they have the ball too. Edmonton had averaged 21 points per game last 3 games before the low-scoring win over the Argos. Keep in mind neither of these teams in tonight's match-up will be going to the post-season so this should be played as a rather wide-open affair. Note that Elks Cornelius has been gaining confidence at QB and they can attack a Lions defense allowing 33.3 points per game last 4 home games. 10* OVER 46.5 in BC Lions |
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11-13-21 | Edmonton Elks +11 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #239 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +11 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 4 ET - Taylor Cornelius continues to improve at QB for the Elks despite being without key weapons on offense. Last week he nearly rallied them to the outright win over the Roughriders. Yes, Saskatchewan is the better team in this match-up but this is too many points in my opinion. This is particularly true when you consider Edmonton is 2-2 SU in road games this season and the Riders are only 4-4 SU in divisional games this season. Also, the Roughriders only have a point differential of +22 on the season so their average margin on the season is 2 points per game this season. Give me the big points here! 10* EDMONTON +11 |
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11-12-21 | Calgary v. BC OVER 45.5 | Top | 33-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in BC Lions - Both these teams have gotten stronger at the WR position as the Stampeders recently added Reggie Begelton to the roster again after the former Calgary WR had spent some time with the Packers in the NFL. As for the Lions, they welcomed back Lucky Whitehead from injury a few weeks ago and he is ramping back up into top form and is one of the most dangerous receives in the league as he has phenomenal speed. The Lions have allowed about 26 points per game game this season and this line has Calgary as a 1.5 point favorite which means you are looking at about a 26-25 game under normal circumstances here based on that line. However, I am expecting even much more than that because the Lions need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive but they allowed 39 points the last time they faced the Stamps and I feel this one is going to turn into an absolute shootout as BC going to have to rely on their offense in this one and they will be airing it out here. 10* OVER 45.5 in BC Lions |
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11-06-21 | Toronto v. Ottawa +10.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +10.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - The Redblacks lost and failed to cover last week but played better than the final score indicates. Also, this is their home finale and it is against the rival Argonauts. Adding to the value is the fact that Toronto has a big game with Hamilton on deck. In what has been a disappointing season for Ottawa this is essentially their Super Bowl. The Redblacks can finish the home part of their schedule with an upset win here and play the role of spoiler and of course that is their goal with this one. I look for them to achieve that goal in a big way in this one. Maybe they do fall just short of the upset but, if so, they should still keep this loss to a one-possession game and that would get us the cash as well. Coming off an OT win last week, the Argos are in the perfect spot to fade here and you know the Redblacks are going to give a huge effort as a double digit home dog in this one. 10* OTTAWA +10.5 |
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11-05-21 | BC +7 v. Hamilton | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play BC Lions +7 @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7 ET - The BC Lions are off a tight OT loss at Toronto last week but had won all 3 of their non-divisional games prior to that. Hamilton is off a big win at Edmonton and has a game at first place Toronto on deck. The Ti-Cats are just behind the Argonauts in the standings so it could be tough for them to avoid looking ahead to that match-up. Hamilton is just 2-2 against West Division opponents this season and a rather unimpressive 3-2 in home games this season. In other words, that means a lot of line value here with getting a full TD with the visitors because all those stats are SU stats and this one is too: road teams in BC games are 7-4 this season. From a situational standpoint and with having the big points on your side, this is a great spot. 10* BC +7 |
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10-30-21 | BC +3.5 v. Toronto | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #673 Saturday 10* Top Play BC Lions +3.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - Both teams off bad losses and will be looking to respond here. That said, I like having the value of the points on my side for this one particularly with the rainy weather projected in Toronto for this one as well. I know the Argonauts have played well at home this season but the Lions are a perfect 3-0 SU against East Division teams. Also, just playing the road team in BC games this season would have netted you a 7-3 record. I look for the Lions to be rejuvenated by the return of Whitehead as that will give a boost to the offense. Look for the road team, still alive for a playoff spot but needing to get back on track, to get it done here as they get a boost with the return of Whitehead and improve to 4-0 SU in non-divisional games on the season. Will grab the points just in case they do fall short of the outright upset win though. We should get at least the cover in this one. 10* BC Lions +3.5 |
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10-29-21 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Non-Conf Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #669 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 42.5 in Ottawa Redblacks vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - The Stamps are angry off a home loss to Saskatchewan in which interceptions were the difference. Calgary has a bye on deck so they will go all out here and that means plenty of points as they look to bounce back from the loss to the Roughriders last week. Ottawa has very ugly numbers on the season but they do tend to score better at home and this includes averaging 25 points per game the past two games as a host. The Redblacks can take advantage of a Stampeders pass defense which ranks among the worst in the league. 10* OVER 42.5 in Ottawa |
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10-23-21 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary OVER 44 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 44 in Calgary Stampeders vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 9:45 ET - The Stampeders have been red hot and are off a 39-point outburst last week. The Roughriders had a much needed bye last week and have some key weapons entering the lineup this week to help out QB Cody Fajardo. Look for the rested Riders to enjoy some success on the offensive side of the ball but they also will struggle to stop this red-hot Calgary team. The last two games between these teams totaled right around 40 but I think the better health of each of these two offenses will lead to the 3rd game in this 3-game set getting into the 50s. That said, excellent line value with this total in the 44 range. 10* OVER 44 in Calgary |
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10-22-21 | Toronto +1 v. Montreal | Top | 16-37 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts +1 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The Alouettes are at home and trailing the Argonauts by just one game in the division. However, Toronto is off a bye week and getting healthier while Montreal is down to their 2nd string quarterback. Also, the Argos are 4-1 in divisional games this season and the Als are just 1-2 in home games. The Argonauts defense has been much better since they hired defensive consultant Chris Jones. Hotter and healthier team on the road and that means line value so I am stepping out big with this one. 10* TORONTO |
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10-16-21 | Calgary +3.5 v. BC | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +3.5 @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - I am very tempted to take the Stamps on the money line here but the trade off of losing 3.5 points to have a +150 money line is just not worth it in my opinion. But I really do expect an outright win for the road dogs in this one. This line has gone from nearly a pick'em to now catching 3.5 points. Keep in mind, BC lost star WR Lucky Whitehead to injury. Yes the Lions are coming off a bye week and the Stampeders are off back to back wins over rival Saskatchewan, but I still feel we have excellent line value here. Calgary is a very strong team that is now finally starting to play back up to their potential again. As for the Lions, they are only 1-4 in divisional games this season! I am still not sold on this BC team and also the road team has dominated their games this season. The Lions are 3-1 on the road and just 1-3 at home. So, playing the road team in BC games all season long would have netted you a 6-2 record. Again, I do expect an outright road upset here but getting 3.5 is a strong value to have and I will not pass that up. 10* CALGARY +3.5 |
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10-15-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +12 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
West Div Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #672 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +12 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - If you look at this game on paper, the Elks have no chance. But, as the long-time saying goes, the games are not played on paper! The fact is that Edmonton is a huge home dog here and offering substantial value as I expect them to step up big after last week's embarrassing loss at Winnipeg. The Elks did not just lose to the Blue Bombers last week, they got destroyed. Now, coming back home and with an immediate shot at revenge, Edmonton can get some redemption here. Of course this does not mean they win the game outright, but I do expect them to be ultra competitive here and lose this game by no more than a single score margin. Note that Winnipeg has been rolling teams but this looks like a tough spot as they won big at Edmonton a few weeks ago as well and have BC on deck. This is the final meeting between these teams this season and the Elks have a bye on deck and will go all out here with a week of rest on deck. They have had enough of being embarrassed by the Blue Bombers and will put up a strong fight in this one. I know the Elks have an ugly record this season but they are better than their record shows and will prove to be a tough home dog to put away in this spot. 10* EDMONTON |
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10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton -4.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #688 Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - Toronto is coming off a big win versus Ottawa on Wednesday but the Argonauts were fortunate. The Redblacks actually outgained them by 153 yards but interceptions where the difference in the game. That said, this is now a battle for first place at the top of the division and the team trailing, Hamilton, is the better team and is coming off a loss and has a rest edge here. Last week the Tiger-Cats lost in OT to Montreal so this is a great spot to back them. Toronto is just 1-3 on the road this season and the Ti-Cats can pull equal with them in the standings by notching a win in this one. Hamilton is allowing only 18 points per game this season while the Argos are allowing 23 points a game. Again, the home/road dichotomy for the Argonauts is another reason to look for the Tiger-Cats to bounce back big at home in this one. Hamilton's wins have been by an average margin of 13 points per game and that includes a big win over Toronto. Look for another dominating victory here. 10* HAMILTON -4.5 |
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10-11-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Montreal | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Monday 8* Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 1 ET - I lost with the Redblacks at Toronto on Wednesday but that was a turnover-fueled loss. Ottawa QB Caleb Evans threw for 334 yards but 3 interceptions. The Redblacks outgained the Argonauts by over 150 yards but the turnovers were the difference in the game. That has led to solid line value in this spot on Thanksgiving Monday in Canada. Note that the Als are actually 0-2 at home this season and coming off an OT win at Hamilton. That makes this the perfect spot to fade them with a Redblacks team that has been playing better in recent weeks. Look for a cleaner game from the visitors here with fewer turnovers and, as a result, they easily stay inside the number here. 8* OTTAWA +9.5 |
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10-09-21 | Calgary +4.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #663 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +4.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - I know the Riders outgained the Stamps last week but still lost the game. However, I am not taking the bait here on Saskatchewan. The Roughriders opened up as a 3.5 point favorite and are up to a 4.5 point favorite. Everyone seems to be liking the revenge factor here but this Stampeders team is better than their record shows and the Riders also have had trouble matching up with them. Look for the Calgary offensive line to again help key the victory as they win battles in the trenches. This is a battle of brothers in the coaching ranks and the Stamps hold a 3-0 edge in games in which they have squared off. Look for that to be 4-0 after today but I am grabbing the points also as added insurance in what could be a tight finish. 10* CALGARY +4.5 |
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10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg vs Edmonton @ 8:30 ET - Edmonton's defense is not getting any respect here because of the ugly loss at Ottawa last week. However, the Elks have had a knack this season for allowing more points than they should have based on yardage allowed. This is shading some value toward the under in this one as a result as there should be a regression to the mean in that regard. Winnipeg is 7-1 this season and has been incredibly good on defense. In the 7 wins the Blue Bombers have allowed only 11 points per game. So if the odds makers are correct and Winnipeg wins this by 10 and has an "average" game for them in a victory (allowing around 11 points) that puts this game around 21-11. You can see why I feel we have some very solid line value here! This total, per the above as well as the simulation report, is simply too high. Also note that it did open up at 43.5 and has jumped to 48.5 and the odds makers likely had it in the better range with their original number and it will be the betting markets that are proven wrong in this one. 10* UNDER 48.5 in Winnipeg |
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10-06-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Toronto | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #679 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +9.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Ottawa was much better in last week's win versus Edmonton. That was a Wednesday game too so they are fine on rest here too. The Argonauts are off a bye week so they are set up well here but I feel this is a dangerous game for them. Toronto has a big game with rival Hamilton on deck and that is on Monday. The Redblacks also have a game Monday at Montreal but the point is those big Thanksgiving Day (Canada) match-ups are more of a lookahead for the Argos in this case. Toronto is 4-3 and Hamilton is right behind them in the standings at 4-4 plus coming off their huge 2019 season. It is hard for the Argonauts to not already be thinking about that key battle with the Tigercats. As for the Redblacks, their mindset is quite different. The win over the Elks was key and if they get a win here they are suddenly just a game out of 1st place in the division! I look for another very motivated effort, just like we saw from them last week, as Ottawa makes this a difficult match-up for Toronto. Yes the Argos are the better team and at home and they may still win the game here but I don't see them covering this large number. The Redblacks capable of making this one a battle all the way to the finish. The Argonauts 4 wins this season all by 7 or less points and, in fact, the average margin was just 3.5 points in those 4 victories. Look for another tight one here. 10* OTTAWA +9.5 |
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10-02-21 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary +2.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ATS Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (+) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - This line may look funny but Calgary is way better than their record shows. Keep in mind, the Stampeders are coming off a huge season and have been looking better in recent games. Also, they enter this game off a bye week and are 14-2 SU the last 16 times when coming off a bye. I really don't think we'll need the points here but I am grabbing the 2.5 points. The Stampeders are only 2-5 on the season but only 1 of their losses was by more than 6 points. This is a team that has been within one possession of a 6-1 season thus far. The fact is the Riders are a strong team and they have the record to show for it too. However, they have played only 2 road games this season (went 1-1) and that has certainly helped their strong start. Also, the Roughriders are off a big comeback win last week and that was on the road and it took a lot in rallying for the win. The Stamps will be the more rested team and fresher team and they bring it big-time in what is essentially a must-win game for them to get back into the thick of things out west. Look for them to do just that as they improve to 15-2 when off a bye week! 10* CALGARY +2.5 |
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10-02-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton -142 | 23-20 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Money Line Day Game - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 8* Hamilton Tiger-Cats -140 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - This money line is low enough (-140 range) to make it worth laying the price to avoid getting burned should the Ti-Cats (currently -2.5) win this game by just a point or two. Hamilton was in the most recent Grey Cup and lost to Winnipeg. This season the Tiger-Cats and Blue Bombers are atop their respective divisions. Not only that, Hamilton is now betting healthier and getting some key star power back on the field this week with Masoli and Banks coming back plus Addison making his Ti-Cats debut. Montreal has been struggling and made a bunch of coaching changes on defense heading into this match-up. I know Alouettes are hoping the shake-up will provide immediate improvement but I do not feel this is the time or place for that. The Ti-Cats are the better team and note that the Als only have two wins this season and they were against Edmonton and Ottawa - a pair of 2-5 teams. The Tiger-Cats are 2-0 at home and 3-1 in divisional games and the Als already got blasted at home by the Ti-Cats earlier this season. More of the same expected now on the road. 8* HAMILTON -140 |
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10-01-21 | Winnipeg -120 v. BC | Top | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
Money Line Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -120 @ BC Lions @ 10 ET - The Blue Bombers have only 1 loss in 7 games this season. Both these teams have great offenses led by strong quarterbacks but the Winnipeg defense is what should key a win here. The fact the Blue Bombers are on the road is helping to give us line value here as otherwise they would likely be about a TD favorite if they were the hosts. That said I love the extra value here and instead of even laying the point and a half lets grab the very affordable money line which is in a -120 price range as of early game day morning. Another big variance here is that Winnipeg has a number of wins over strong teams. Unlike the Blue Bombers, the Lions wins have only come against teams that currently have losing records: Ottawa (2-5) twice, Calgary (2-5) and Montreal (2-4). The road team is the far superior team in this match-up in my opinion and has already handed Saskatchewan its only 2 losses and has wins over Hamilton and Toronto - both those teams have winning records this season. Last but certainly not least, the Blue Bombers are off a bye last week while BC was battling it out with Saskatchewan last week. Big rest edge for the road team. 10* WINNIPEG -120 |
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09-28-21 | Edmonton Elks -6.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Tuesday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks -6.5 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Both teams dealing with QB injuries but the situation for the Redblacks is even worse. Also I like what I saw from Elks QB Taylor Cornelius last week but he just needs to cut down on the turnovers. This is a revenge game for a week 2 home loss for Edmonton in which they lost 16 to 12 despite a massive yardage edge! The Elks outgained Ottawa by a 443 to 127 edge! I seriously do not know if there has ever been another CFL game in history with that type of yardage domination and yet a loss for the team with the big edge! It is payback time here and Ottawa is 0-3 at home this season and their win over the Elks is their only win this year! The Redblacks 5 losses have been by an average margin of 19.2 points! The very first number to come out on this game is 6.5 and I expect it to climb but, either way, expect a road rout by a double digit margin. Elks have #1 pass defense and #2 rush defense in the league in terms of yards allowed per game. 10* EDMONTON -6.5 |
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09-24-21 | Montreal v. Toronto -135 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts -135 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Recommend laying the -135 price on the money line rather than the 2.5 points here. Feel it absolutely could prove worth the extra 25 cent price to do so. In terms of SU win this season, Montreal has just 2 and they were against a pair of teams that have a combined 3-9 record. Conversely, Toronto is 3-3 on the season and has a pair of wins against teams with a combined 10-4 record. The Argonauts also have not yet faced the worst team (Ottawa) in the league either. That said, I feel we have some solid line value here with the Argos at home and the Als being a bit over-rated at this point in the season. Toronto also hired long-time CFL veteran coach Chris Jones to be, essentially, their defensive coordinator. With him calling the plays now on defense, look for his presence to be felt immediately and the Argonauts respond well here. Yes I am aware of the QB situation for the home team here but Bethel-Thompson certainly use to being a starter so no issues there. 10* TORONTO -135 |
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09-22-21 | Hamilton v. Ottawa +9 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Wednesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +8.5 vs Hamilton @ 7:30 PM ET - Yes Ottawa has been a horrible team so far this season. Definitely the worst team in the league thus far. However, they have some big edges here as they are at home and playing with extra rest and they are catching Hamilton on the road and playing on short rest. Though the Tiger-Cats defeated the Stampeders last week at home, they actually were outgained in the game and were helped greatly by turnovers. The Ti-Cats are still down to their back-up QB and the Redblacks are going to make a game of this one in my strong opinion. Hamilton will get caught looking ahead to big game with Montreal coming up next week. 10* OTTAWA +8.5 |
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09-18-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +7 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton +7 - The Elks are starting back-up QB. I am well aware of this but, at home and with solid running skills, Taylor Cornelius is going to be a pleasant surprise. Getting a full +7 with Edmonton at home is a huge value. The Elks have been very strong statistically this season and should have a better record. They have a solid defense and added another key piece to that defense with a recent star acquisition. This team solid on both sides of the ball and they catch Winnipeg off a key divisional win over Saskatchewan. The set up here is perfect for a home dog upset. Yes the Blue Bombers have been very solid early this season but laying a full 7 on the road against a quality home team is simply too much. Yes the Elks Cornelius is making his first start at QB but he has solid QB skills and there is a big difference between making your first ever start at home comparted to on the road. He is going to have a solid game and this defense for the Elks also keys a very tight game decided by a single score margin in my strong estimation. 10* EDMONTON +7 |
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09-18-21 | BC v. Montreal -2.5 | 27-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
CFL 8* Montreal Alouettes -2.5 - The Als are off a bye week and they also opened the season with a bye. Montreal is playing just their 2nd home game of the season and they lost their first one. They want this game and they will get it! BC has a solid record but 2 of their games were against a bad Ottawa team. The Redblacks are so much worse than everyone else in the league right now. One of the Lions road wins was at Ottawa and the other road win was at Calgary in a game in which the Stampeders threw 4 picks. The other road game was BC's season opener in which they only lost by 4 points but they were down huge early in that game. I do not see the Als being denied at home here and they have the fresher legs right now and the Lions simply a bit over-valued, particularly on the road, because of the reasons I just mentioned. 8* MONTREAL -2.5 |
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09-17-21 | Calgary +2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +2.5 - I absolutely do respect the Tiger-Cats defense. However, they have a major issue at QB. They lost starting QB Dane Evans to injury last week and now they are starting a guy, David Watford, who has hardly played at the CFL level. This is no disrespect to him but just saying it is going to be a difficult situation for him. For Calgary, the situation is completely different. Not only is Bo Levi Mitchell back, the other QB that had filled in him for was fantastic. Jake Maier can step right if Mitchell got hurt again. The point is that right now the Stampeders have two healthy quarterbacks that are both better than the Tiger-Cats current starting QB. Losing Evans really hurts this team. I look for the Stamps to build off last week's dominating win at Edmonton and get another big road win here. Note that Hamilton is still over-valued because of their success in the 2019 season. This Ti-Cats team simply is not the same team right now. They are likely to struggle to score points here. 10* CALGARY +2.5 |
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09-11-21 | Calgary v. Edmonton Elks OVER 45.5 | Top | 32-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Edmonton - The Elks and Stampeders had a high-scoring game last week and the way Harris played at QB for Edmonton and with how leaky the Calgary defense has been, we should again see a huge game from the Elks offense. However, the Stampeders should get a boost with the return of Mitchell because, even under the direction of rookie QB Maier, the Calgary offense has been electric early this season. The Stampeders problem has been in terms of bogging down in the red zone. However, with the veteran Mitchell now back at the pivot, look for the Stamps to get more production out of all their red zone opportunities. No team has more red zone opportunities this season than Calgary. However, no defense has allowed more passing yardage than the Stampeders have. Another shootout likely here. 10* OVER 45.5 in Edmonton |
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09-10-21 | Hamilton +3 v. Toronto | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
10* Top Play HAMILTON +3 - The Tiger-Cats were the top team in the East last season and went all the way to the Grey Cup Game where they fell short against Winnipeg. This Hamilton team is still being undervalued by the markets. Yes they started the season 0-2 with a pair of losses out west against teams known for being very strong at home. However, the Tiger-Cats have responded by winning two straight games in divisional action and now here is their chance to start creating some separation in the division. Right now things are very tight in the division and I know Toronto wants revenge here because of the loss last week at Hamilton. However, revenge is over-valued and the Argos still are too mistake-prone and not quite on the level of this Ti-Cats team just yet. 10* HAMILTON +3 |
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09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks +6 v. Calgary | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
ESPNews Network Rout - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #677 Monday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +6 @ Calgary Stampeders @ 4:30 ET - The Stampeders have played the tougher schedule. Also, they are at home for this rivalry game. However, there is plenty of reason to like the Elks in this one. I know their schedule has been a little weaker but in their 30-13 loss to Montreal the yardage was nearly equal. In their other two games they outgained their opponents by about 250 yards in one and 300 yards in the other. It is very hard to ignore domination like that and I like Edmonton getting 6 points here considering how tough their defense has been too this season. The Elks D has a lot of confidence right now and this offense actually averaging more yardage per game than any other team in the CFL. That said, love fading the line move here too as it went from an early opener of 3 to now as high as 6.5 for this Monday afternoon match-up. The Stampeders are a better team than their record shows but, still, they will have their hands full here. Also, with their #2 QB playing well but the #1 QB now coming back from injury, could this disrupt the chemistry on offense? I say yes it will and the Stamps will struggle just to win this game let alone cover the sizable spread. Elks off a bye week afforded by covid and they won their game solidly before the bye and were strong both on the ground and through the air and the defense does a great job with its pass rush. There is a lot to like in Edmonton right now but they are flying under the radar because of their 1-2 record. Grab the generous points. 10* EDMONTON |
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09-06-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton OVER 44 | Top | 19-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #675 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Toronto Argonauts @ 1 ET - I know this is a rivalry game and an early-season battle for first place in the East. However, the over should prove to be the play here. Hamilton is coming off a big road win at Montreal and got a big game from QB Dane Evans, filling in for the injured Jeremiah Masoli. Ironically, Evans also was the starting QB in the most recent Labor Day battle (2019) between these teams and he led them to the comeback win with 31 of 37 completions and over 440 yards passing! As for the Argonauts, they have looked very strong early this season and Nick Arbuckle coming off a huge game at QB for them two weeks ago in their big win versus Winnipeg. He completed 23 of 32 for over 300 yards of offense. Don't be surprised if both offenses fare much better than you would think in a typical rivalry game as each of these units is "feeling it" right now and playing with a lot of confidence. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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09-05-21 | Winnipeg +190 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 23-8 | Win | 190 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #673 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers Money Line +190 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 6 ET - Yes, the Roughriders want revenge for losing to the Blue Bombers in the post-season last season (2019). However, Winnipeg has plenty of motivation for this game as well. This is a big rivalry game and the Riders are currently the only undefeated team in the league sitting nicely at 3-0 on the young campaign. That means the Blue Bombers, the defending Grey Cup Champions, are not only on a mission to defend their title they also want to knock off their rivals and move into first place in the division. Winnipeg also has not forgotten losing here at Saskatchewan in the most recent CFL season and, in fact, they lost a pair of regular season meetings with the Roughriders in that year. There is no way they will overlook them here and they want to be the first to hand them a loss this season. In terms of line value, this one opened up with the home team at -3.5 and is now up to a -5. I love fading line moves and here is where the value gets really big. The very first money lines that came out on this game had Saskatchewan at -146 and Winnipeg at +122 and now that has been bet all the way up to the Roughriders being more than a 2 to 1 favorite and the Blue Bombers available at a +190 price. Give me the defending champs that will be highly motivated for a road win here and note Andrew Harris was back at running back last week and looked strong and he'll be ready to go here and is an MVP player for the road dog Bombers. 10* WINNIPEG +190 |
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09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa +7.5 | Top | 51-29 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
East Div GAME OF THE MONTH - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +7.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - These teams have traditionally played on Labour Day weekend in Canada for many years. The games are almost always tight. The odds makers know this too. This line opened up at a 2.5 and yet has been driven all the way up to a 7.5 and that means it is "go time" with the Redblacks in this one. Tremendous home dog value here. The offense looked much better for Ottawa last week in what was their first home game of the season. They should build off that performance this week and have much more in the way of points on the scoreboard to show for it. Montreal is simply over-valued here. This is particularly true when you consider they will be without a key O-lineman and key D-lineman in this game. The Alouettes have been a pleasant surprise early this season but this is a rivalry game and they are on the road and the Redblacks are showing signs of turning the corner. I will gladly grab the generous points being offered to the home dog in this one. 10* OTTAWA +7.5 |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -6.5 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - I really like Jake Maier for Calgary at QB and he got much better as last week's game went on after a rough early start. That showed resilience and he also showed a lot of grit and determination in the 28-22 win versus Montreal. However, the back-up QB now goes on the road and he faces a very tough and physical Winnipeg defense which also is angry off their first loss of the season - at Toronto - last week. Keep in mind, the Blue Bombers are the defending champs and this defense allowed only 13 points total in its first two games this season. Those were at at home and this game is too and the Winnipeg defense bounces back. Also, I am looking for a huge game from the offense as well as they are expected to get a boost with the return of Andrew Harris at RB. He is a fantastic running back and, overall, one of the best players in the league at any position. All signs pointing to a home blowout here! 10* WINNIPEG -6.5 |
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08-28-21 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-12 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Ottawa Redblacks vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - The news on the injury front for each of these teams was better on the offensive front and worse on the defensive front. That, in and of itself, certainly helps an over. What also helps an over is value in the line and this total has been pushed very low because of early season results. I look for both teams to come out strong offensively in this one. BC has allowed at least 21 points in 2 of 3 games this season. Ottawa has played only two games but did allow 23 points (and 400 yards!) last week at Saskatchewan. This is the Redblacks home opener. They should respond better at home and, looking to bounce back after some ugly performances on offense, I do expect Ottawa to score more in this one. However, the Redblacks also allowed just 12 points (but on 443 yards!) in their very fortunate week one upset at Edmonton. That said, this defense just can not be trusted and the BC offense is capable of a big showing here. It all points to this total being set far too low and I am expecting 50+ in this one so we elevate this one to a top play rating. 10* OVER 43.5 in Ottawa |
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08-27-21 | Hamilton -129 v. Montreal | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
ESPNews Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 8* Hamilton Tiger-Cats Money Line -130 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The Als are off a loss but are 1-1 on the season. While Montreal wants to bounce back, they at least have already tasted victory once. Hamilton, on the other hand, is 0-2 this season plus coming off their bye week and let us not forget the Tiger-Cats were playing for the Grey Cup to wrap up the most reason. Falling short there, falling short the first two weeks of this new season, refreshed off a bye week, and now laying a very small number on the road...it all adds up to great value with the Ti-Cats. I know they are available at a -2 on the spread but the money line is so small (-130 range) I am recommending just playing them on the money line here as they get into the win column finally. I know the Als are improved but the Tiger-Cats came into this season as one of the frontrunners for the Grey Cup and I am sure they re-establish dominance here and we get a value spot to back them since they are on the road. That keeps this price lower than it should be. 8* HAMILTON Money Line -130 |
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08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - CFL 10* Toronto Argonauts +3.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Look for a strong effort from the Argos here as they play their home opener. They lost at Winnipeg last week so they will take advantage of this shot at revenge right away this week. The Argonauts did get a boost in the game when they made a QB switch and I expect that to wake up the team and give them some momentum for this week's rematch. The Blue Bombers were already down RB Harris but now also lost WR Demski to injury. Things are starting to catch up with this Winnipeg offense and the Argos did do a solid job defensively last week and could be even stronger this week in their home opener in my opinion. That said, value with the home dog in this one. The Blue Bombers did open up as a TD favorite here and are now in the range of a FG but this line move was fully justified based on the Winnipeg injury issues and the fact that the home dog is a revenge-minded one that had some positives to pull from last week's game for sure. 10* TORONTO +3.5 |
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08-20-21 | Montreal v. Calgary +5.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #674 Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +5.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9:30 ET - Some are surprised at who the starting QB is for Calgary here as they are going with the perceived #3 and letting the #2 serve as the back-up as the #1 guy Bo Levi Mitchell now out with an injury. However, the way I view this is that the Stampeders have seen some good things from the UC-Davis product and he is in line for a big game here. Love the line move as, because of Mitchell's injury, the line has gone from Calgary being about a 2-point favorite to now being a +5.5 dog. The Stampeders were great at home last season but now already off to an 0-2 start at home this season. In other words, the likelihood of them falling into an 0-3 start at home is slim odds in my opinion and I love having the big points. Yes Montreal is off a blowout win last week but the yardage was very nearly equal in their 30-13 win at Edmonton. I do respect the Alouettes but they are over-valued in this spot and the value is with the big home dog no matter who is at the pivot position for the hosts! 10* CALGARY +5.5 |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #671 Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +4 @ BC Lions @ 10 ET - Statistically, the Elks have been much better than what has been reflected on the scoreboard the first two weeks. That is helping lead to line value here especially with Edmonton available at +4 in this one. The road team is a perfect 2-0 ATS in BC games this season and 2-0 SU/ATS in Elks games this season and I look for that trend to continue here but will grab the points as added insurance. Keep in mind, the Lions lost in Week 1 by just 4 points and Edmonton also lost in Week 1 by just a 4-point margin. 10* EDMONTON +4 |
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08-14-21 | Hamilton +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 8-30 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
ESPNews Network Rout - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +1.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 10 ET - Saskatchewan off a non-covering win in which they nearly entirely blew a 31-0 lead in their season opener. That gives me some major question marks about the Roughriders defense but really this play is more about taking an extremely good team as an underdog coming off a loss. Yes we faded Hamilton with Winnipeg in Week 1 and got the win but the Blue Bombers, now 2-0 on the season, certainly look quite strong. Also, the Tiger-Cats were done in by turnovers in that game and that is helping to give us line value here as the Blue Bombers defense has looked strong this season. Hamilton will take advantage of a leaky Riders defense in this one and I look for the hungry Ti-Cats, a true Grey Cup favorite this season, to gets into the win column! 10* HAMILTON |
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08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks -5 | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 8* Edmonton Elks (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Edmonton outgained Ottawa 443 to 127 last week. Yet, not only did the Elks not cover the spread, they did not even win the game. I feel that is helping to give us some rock solid line value here. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris threw 3 picks against 0 touchdowns last week and that is not happening again. Additionally the Als have not even played a game yet this season. The game under the belt edge for the Elks is another edge over Montreal here. Edmonton had a winning record at home and in non-divisional play last season. The Alouettes did not have a winning record in non-divisional play or on the road. In other words, the early line move from 3.5 down to a 3 makes this one an even bigger value and what sure looks to me like the perfect set up for a home win. 8* EDMONTON -3 |
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08-13-21 | Toronto v. Winnipeg OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts @ 8:30 ET - The early line on this total was a 47.5 and it dropped to a 46.5 but where it goes from there is a big question mark as the odds makers have been slow putting up numbers on CFL action early this season. In any event, I am going big on the over here as both teams are off victories last week in which they each received strong QB play. Also, Blue Bombers still missing RB Andrew Harris which could make them pass even more which is good for an over. Toronto was a pass-heavy team last week and that should continue here. Winnipeg off big win in a Grey Cup rematch and Argonauts off big upset road win. That sets this one up well for a bit of a letdown for each defense and we have good value with the early line movement on an already low total. I know we have seen a lot of unders so far in this young season but this one should play out much differently. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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08-12-21 | BC v. Calgary -7 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #680 Thursday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - The early line on this game was a 6.5 but where it goes from there is a big question mark as the odds makers have been slow putting up numbers on CFL action early this season. In any event, I am going big on the Stampeders here as they blew a 20-12 lead in the 4th quarter to lose their opener to Toronto. Calgary is well aware of the fact that BC rallied from a 31-0 deficit to put a scare into the Roughriders last week at Saskatchewan. The Riders appeared to let up with a big lead and the Stamps will not make the same mistake here and should prove to be the better team on the ground in this one as well. 10* CALGARY |
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08-07-21 | Ottawa +7 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN2 Game of the Week - 10* OTTAWA +7 - I know QB Matt Nichols is questionable for this game but I doubt he'll miss it and they do have some options behind him. That being said, I also feel - though it is hard to fully judge early in the season - the Redblacks could very well have the better defense in this match-up. That said, there is a reason why this line is below a full TD as it opened up. Edmonton was only an 8-10 team last season and thy have some question marks, particularly on defense, entering the new season. That said, I really like the defensive coordinator - Benevides - for Ottawa here and feel the defensive schemes could be a difference in this game. He used to be with Edmonton and knows them well. Whether that leads to an outright upset remains to be seen but I do feel it means that if the Elks do prevail here it will be by the slimmest of margins. Good value with the points in this one. 10* OTTAWA +7 |
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08-07-21 | Toronto +5.5 v. Calgary | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
ESPN+ Early Dominator - 8* TORONTO +5.5 - Something funny with this line. Toronto is off a 4-18 season in which they won just once on the road and also just once against the West. However, they are a rather small dog here given those numbers. The fact is that the Argonauts have undergone a major overhaul and there is a certain rejuvenated attitude here among the Argos. As strong as Calgary tends to be, particularly when at home, note that the Stampeders did go just 4-4 against the East last season. Also, the Stamps are not quite as talented as they have been in recent seasons and I am forecasting a bit of an early season hangover for Calgary after the disappointing way their 2019 season ended. 8* TORONTO +5.5 |
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08-06-21 | BC v. Saskatchewan -6.5 | Top | 29-33 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN+ Top Play - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #674 Friday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders -6.5 vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - I know that hope springs eternal at the start of a season but I just do not think the Lions have what it takes and there are going to be some growing pains as they look to rebound from last year's poor season. Not only did BC go just 5-13 last season they were 0-10 in divisional games. Conversely, Saskatchewan is known for being tough to play at home annually and last season was no different. The Roughriders were a fantastic 8-1 in home games last season. With a raucous sold out crowd likely - the prairie region of Canada is where CFL is most popular - look for the home team to roll by a big margin in this one. The average margin of loss was 15.4 in the Lions 5 road losses to divisional opponents last season and this included 4 of the 5 by at least points. BC lost all 3 games with the Roughriders and those defeats were by margin of 16 points per game. The Lions offense might keep them in this game a little bit early on but eventually the home team should pull away in this game and win by a double digit margin. 10* SASKATCHEWAN -6.5 |
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08-05-21 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg +3.5 | 6-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #672 Thursday 8* Winnipeg Blue Bombers +3.5 vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 8:30 ET - Revenge game from 2019 CFL Grey Cup which Winnipeg dominated by a 33-12 count. Both teams have some injury issues. However, the popular choice here is Hamilton to get revenge and, do not get me wrong, the Tiger-Cats are a very solid team. However, revenge can often be over-played and over-valued. Here we are a getting a Blue Bombers team that is at home where they went 8-1 last season and they are a home dog of more than a field goal as of very early morning on gameday. This is a ton of value and I am aware of the injury issues but feel they are equally impacting to both teams so I am calling that a wash. That said, I like the home dog here as they do not want to let the Ti-Cats come in and spoil the unfurling of the championship banner in this one. The Blue Bombers only home loss last season came against Hamilton so the revenge factor actually goes both ways here. Being the first game of a new season after a 2020 season that was lost to the pandemic and without any 2021 pre-season games, I truly feel there is even more value than usual with having the points on your side in an opener and this is particularly true of a home dog. 8* WINNIPEG +3.5 |
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11-24-19 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg +4 | Top | 12-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Grey Cup Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #896 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 6 ET - Give Hamilton credit for being here and certainly they are a great team but I don't see Winnipeg being denied. The Tiger-Cats had the best regular season and record and then, after a bye the first week of the playoffs, they faced an Edmonton team that was truly only a mediocre team this season. But how about these Blue Bombers and what they have faced. They didn't get a first round bye they went on the road and beat a great Calgary team in the first week of the playoffs. Then last week, courtesy of some great late game defense including goal line stands, they went on the road again and beat another great team in Saskatchewan. The point is that the Blue Bombers defense is rising to the occasion at the right time and they truly seem like a team of destiny at this point. They are on a roll and playing every week and winning every week and even on the road in tough venues. I feel Hamilton, as strong as they are, may struggle here in playing their first non-home game since October! Look for the road warrior Blue Bombers to deliver the shocking upset here but of course I am grabbing the points and loving the line move here. A line that opened up with Hamilton as the slightest of favorites now has the Ti-Cats as a 4-point fave here. Fade the move, this Blue Bombers teams is special this year and has allowed just 13.5 points per game in this post-season. If Hamilton does prevail I certainly expect it to be by 3 or less points so I love the underdog value here and I expect the outright upset. Grab the points. 10* WINNIPEG |
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11-17-19 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 45 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #894 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4:30 ET - I know this is a low total but don't let that scare you away. The Blue Bombers are off a fantastic defensive effort last week in their playoff upset win. The Roughriders are known for their tough defense, particularly when at home. Also, Winnipeg has been employing a two-headed QB system primarily because one of the two is more of a running QB and the Bombers are emphasizing the run more and more. The Riders are known for being very tough to beat when a team has to face them at Regina and their QB is currently dealing with an injury. They will also emphasize the ground game here more than you would typically see in a CFL game. Saskatchewan wants to control the tempo here and grind it out with long drives and this game will be a ball-control type playoff game with a lot less than scoring than you typically expect in a CFL game. All 3 meetings between these teams this season stayed under the total and I am looking for another one here. When Winnipeg enters a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games the under has cashed in 4 of 6 times. The Roughriders have stayed under in 30 of 45 November games long-term including 5 straight unders cashing in recent seasons as they enter this match-up. Look for that streak to reach 6 in a row here! 10* UNDER the total in Saskatchewan |
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11-10-19 | Winnipeg +6 v. Calgary | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #823 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 4:30 ET - Revenge for the Blue Bombers after last year's Western Division Final propelled the Stamps to the Grey Cup. I like the fact that Winnipeg is the better team on both side of the ball when it comes to the ground game. The Blue Bombers have a very strong rushing attack and also are adept at stopping the run. I know the Stampeders are a great passing team but Winnipeg can move the ball down the field through the air in a hurry too. Also, the Stamps have some injury issues at wide receiver. The Blue Bombers also got a boost with the return of Zach Collaros at QB in the final week of the regular season. Note that he has a personal 3-game winning streak when facing Calgary. Also, Winnipeg still has a "running QB" option too since they also have Chris Streveler and he saw plenty of action this season during the time Collaros was out. I love having the points here too because after about 3 to 6 inches of snow fell last night and this morning the forecast here is temperatures to remain right around 12 degrees fahrenheit or -11 celsius during this game. It is going to be another all-out war between these all-too familiar foes and note that 14 of Calgary's 18 games this season (including 7 in a row entering the playoffs) have been decided by 7 or less points! The Blue Bombers went 6-1 ATS this season as an underdog. The Stampeders went 2-11 ATS this season as a favorite. 10* WINNIPEG |
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11-02-19 | Toronto v. Hamilton OVER 52.5 | Top | 18-21 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #815 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7:05 ET - Not much defense expected in this one. The Tiger-Cats already wrapped up the top spot in the CFL for the season and, of course, are awaiting post-season action. The Argonauts have struggled on defense all season as their 31.8 points per game allowed is dead last in the league. However, Toronto has been scoring well recently as they have averaged 30.3 points per game the last 3 weeks. Their is a little renewed enthusiasm on the team since they made some changes in the front office and it is translating to more inspired play on the field. That said, I am expecting this game to be quite entertaining with plenty of points. The Argos scored 39 points last week. The Tiger-Cats can score plenty even with back-ups seeing action in this one. Hamilton is the highest scoring team in the CFL this season and have averaged 35.2 points per game their last 5 games with 3 of the 5 going over. The total is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and I look for them to make it 6 in a row here on Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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11-01-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa +9.5 | Top | 42-32 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #812 Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Yes the Redblacks are putting the wraps on an ugly season and mired in a long losing streak. However, Ottawa will always be motivated when facing the rival Alouettes and one could easily question Montreal's motivation here. You see the Als are locked into a home playoff game next week against Edmonton. The Alouettes main focus here is simply keeping their guys healthy physical and then, from a mental standpoint, the Eskimos match-up is already on the minds of the Als. That said I won't hesitate to grab the big home dog value with Ottawa here. The Redblacks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Montreal. Also, Ottawa has won 11 of the last 14 games SU. The Alouettes also have a long-term tendency NOT to blow teams out. That is they are 2-7 ATS as a favorite including 0-4 ATS this season. The Redblacks are 6-3 ATS the last 9 times they have been a home underdog. An outright upset would not be a complete shock here but I am grabbing the generous points being offered. 10* OTTAWA |
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10-26-19 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton UNDER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #696 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Temperatures below freezing with northerly winds blowing at nearly 20 mph sets up this divisional battle for a low-scoring grudge match. The Roughriders still have their sights set on winning the division and even though the Eskimos clinched a post-season berth they certainly won't be laying down against their division rivals. This is particularly true at home and also coming in rest off a bye week. This is the front end of a home and home set to close out the regular season as the Eskimos will be at Saskatchewan next week. With Edmonton at home this week and rested off a bye week but having seen some struggles on offense due to inconsistent QB play, this game will be all about defense! The Riders have allowed an average of only 17.8 points per game in their last 4 games. The Eskimos have allowed 16 points or less in 2 of their past 3 games. More of the same here. 10* UNDER the total in Edmonton |
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10-25-19 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8:30 ET - The Blue Bombers become the first team to wrap up their regular season as their Friday game is their final one since they have a bye next week. Last week Winnipeg lost 37 to 33 at Calgary. The Blue Bombers passing attack was not good though even though that point total would lead you to believe otherwise. That said, back home and with pleasant weather expected in Winnipeg for this one, the Blue Bombers offense gets back on track. However, the reason the Bombers limped down the stretch run is a struggling defense as they have allowed 30.6 points per game in going 1-4 SU their past 5 games. Calgary has allowed 27.3 points per game their past 3 games and we've got a low total to work with here. The Stampeders rarely run the ball and I also look for the Blue Bombers to throw more here as this is their last chance to get their aerial attack back on track before the post-season begins. The over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these teams in Winnipeg. Also, the over is 11-4 in Blue Bombers games where their line is in a +3 to -3 range. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times Calgary was in a road game where the posted total was in a range between 45.5 and 49 points. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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10-19-19 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -6.5 | Top | 33-37 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #688 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Calgary has had trouble covering the spread this season but in this revenge game I foresee them getting a big home win. The odds makers opened this one up with a line of -7 with good reason. The fact is that the Stampeders are 6-2 at home this season and also 6-1 in divisional games. Note that Winnipeg is only 3-5 on the road this season. The Blue Bombers got a win last week but they previously had lost 4 of 5. Unlike slumping Winnipeg, Calgary actually entered last week's action having won 4 of 5 SU and they won again last week! The Stamps have dominated this series long-term and, having lost at Winnipeg at earlier this season (a rare loss for them against the Blue Bombers) I know they won't take their foot off the gas in this one. As a result, look for a home win by a double digit margin. 10* CALGARY |
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10-18-19 | Toronto +10.5 v. Montreal | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - The Alouettes have already clinched their playoff position. Of course Montreal does not want to go into the post-season on a losing streak but the fact is they are not highly motivated for a blowout win here either. Even if they were I am not sure they would get it as the Als have been scuffling a bit and plus QB Adams was a turnover machine last week! McLeod Bethel-Thompson returned to the starting role for the Argonauts last week and they got a much-needed win versus Ottawa. Trust me, I know that Toronto is not a very good football team as they have had a frustrating season. But some recent organizational changes as well as the strong QB play they got last week plus the fact this is a divisional match-up for pride...all of these factors have me very happy to grab the double digits in points being offered here. The Argos will go hard here and I am not so sure the Als will even be able to match their intensity considering their playoff position is set and they already won at Toronto earlier this season. Now the Argonauts seek to return the favor at Montreal! While they may not get the outright win I do expect this game to be decided by a TD or less! Grab the generous points! The Alouettes are 6-14 ATS (and SU!) the last 20 times they have faced a team with a losing record! Tonight's game is likely to be a much closer game than many are expecting. 10* TORONTO |
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10-12-19 | Montreal v. Winnipeg -3.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - The Blue Bombers saw the Stampeders beat the Roughriders yesterday. How does that impact Winnipeg? It means that with a win today the Blue Bombers can also each 20 points in the West Division standings just like Calgary and Saskatchewan. I like having the Bombers off a loss here and look for Streveler to have a much better game under center. Winnipeg is off a loss and Montreal is off a win. In a spot like this I'll gladly lay the short number with the small home favorite off a loss. The Blue Bombers are 5-2 ATS in their 7 home games this season and only have 1 SU home loss on the year. The Alouettes have lost 4 of 7 road games this season. Also, Montreal is thrilled they have clinched a playoff spot. Could they be flat after last week's win? I just don't think they'll be able to match the intensity of a hungry Bombers team off a loss in this one. 10* WINNIPEG |
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10-11-19 | Ottawa v. Toronto OVER 47.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - No pressure on either team here as both know the playoffs are out of sight. Even Ottawa knows this is the case, barring a miracle, and that is why Arndt is getting the start at QB in this one. Look for Arndt, under no pressure, to have a big game here as he has had only limited action so far this season but now gets the start and gets to take on a struggling Toronto defense. The Argonauts counter with Bethel-Thompson at QB and he had a huge game in a rout of the Redblacks in their earlier meeting this season. With Toronto making some organizational changes coming into this week there is no shortage of motivation for the Argos to again have a huge game against their rivals from Ottawa. However, the Redblacks want payback for that ugly home loss earlier this season and, to get it, they're going to have put up plenty of points too because their defense has been struggling also. Rain will be coming to Toronto but it is not expected until after this game is already in the books and with both teams unlikely to enjoy success on the ground their will be a heavy dose of the "aerial attack" from both teams in this one. The result should be this one flying over the low total. Ottawa has allowed 35.2 points per game their past 5 games. The Argonauts have allowed 33.3 points per game in their last 4 home games. Overall, in just their past two games the Argos have allowed 48 points per game! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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10-05-19 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 51 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Calgary Stampeders @ 4 ET - Great QB match-up here as Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell is delivering a huge season and so too is Montreal's Vernon Adams and he returns this week after a one week suspension. Look for a huge game from Adams here but note that Mitchell and the Stamps are seeking revenge on the Als after an OT loss in Calgary in their most recent meeting. That game totaled 74 points. While this game won't get quite that many I do expect it to get well into the 50s. The weather will be beautiful in Montreal this afternoon with light winds and clear skies and cool autumn temperatures. Both teams can have the playbooks fully opened up for this one. Also, with Adams and Mitchell both out of action last week due to suspension and bye week, respectively, look for both of them to be very aggressive in attacking downfield in this game. I also, as a general rule, like overs in non-divisional match-ups in CFL action and this one "checks all the boxes" for me based on the reasons noted above. Look for a shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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10-04-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton OVER 46.5 | Top | 12-42 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 7 ET - Nice weather expected in Hamilton with light winds and no precipitation and a cool autumn evening on tap. The Tiger-Cats offense has continued to roll as they scored 33 points last week with QB Dane Evans throwing for over 350 yards and three scores! Edmonton also comes into this game riding the momentum of a win, though theirs was much more dramatic, as the Eskimos own on a late TD strike to get past Ottawa last week. The Ti-Cats won't sit back on their heels here and the way Evans and Company have been playing on offense will force the Eskimos to have to throw plenty to keep up in this game. I particularly like overs in a situation like this that involves an East-West match-up as well. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Last week Edmonton's game stayed under the total but the Eskimos entered that game on a 4-1 run to the over. Friday games for Edmonton are on an 11-4 run to the over and that includes 5-1 this season! Even without QB Trevor Harris, the Eskimos score plenty here and Hamilton rolls up big points too as the over improves to 6-2 in their past 8 October games. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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09-28-19 | Saskatchewan v. Toronto OVER 49 | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Making the QB switch in the 2nd half last week shows the Argos are ready, willing and able to give the offense a shot in the arm if needed. I feel that was the wake up call Toronto needed on the offensive side of the ball and they will have a much stronger game this week. However, their defense can not be trusted and the Roughriders certainly are capable of taking advantage. Saskatchewan has averaged 33.5 points per game in their last two match-ups with East Division opponents. However, the Riders enter this game having allowed 30 points per game in their past two games. The Argonauts had averaged scoring 30 points per game in their 5 games preceding last week's dismal effort at home. Toronto will bounce back on offense but this is a defense that has allowed 32 points per game on the season! The over is 9-2 in the Argonauts last 11 September games. The Roughriders have averaged 29 points per game in their last 7 games against the Argos. Coming off their bye week, Saskatchewan's offense runs wild in this one as the over improves to 6-2 (and 3-0 this season) when coming off a bye week. Some rain in the area this morning but it will move out by game time this evening. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-27-19 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - I know this is a revenge for Winnipeg and they are at home but is very hard to trust the Blue Bombers right now. They are off a gut-wrenching loss at Montreal last week where they blew a huge lead and lost in the final seconds. Their defense is a question mark and certainly that is the case in comparing their D with that of the Tiger-Cats. Yes, Hamilton also blew a big lead last week but they managed to get the win on a last-second field goal. That leaves the Ti-Cats with a much different feeling than that of the Bombers coming into this week. Also, Hamilton notched 3 sacks and 3 interceptions in the win over the Eskimos. Dane Evans has been very impressive in filling in for the injured Jeremiah Masoli. He has been putting up big numbers compared to that of Winnipeg's Chris Streveler. Prior to last week's rather high-scoring win, the Tiger-Cats had allowed an average of only 15.8 points per game their 4 prior games. I like having a high quality team getting significant points here when they have been the ones playing better defense and they also have a solid offense. As for the Blue Bombers defense, they have now allowed an average of 30 points per game in their last 3 games against East Division opponents. Hamilton is on a 7-3 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and the Tiger-Cats are on a 14-3 ATS run in Friday games. 10* HAMILTON |
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09-21-19 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +3 | Top | 37-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Love this situation. The Blue Bombers opened up around a pick'em in this game so, of course, the markets jumped all over one of the best teams in the CFL and this line has moved to a -3. Keep in mind, Winnipeg is off a bye week but has a game versus Hamilton on deck. Why does that matter? The Tiger-Cats are the #1 team in the East and also handed Winnipeg their first loss of the season! Don't be surprised if the Bombers make the mistake of looking right past the Alouettes in this one. That will prove to be a mistake because, as strong as Winnipeg is this season, they are still just a .500 team on the road. Montreal has a winning record at home and has been getting strong QB play from Vernon Adams. Of course Winnipeg has been dealing with the QB injury to Matt Nichols. They do get RB Andrew Harris back this week but the Als have a great rusher of their own in William Stanback. They will call this one an upset but, from a situational perspective, truly the home team is the one that should win this game and I won't be surprised when they do. The Alouettes are off a loss and respond here as they catch the Blue Bombers in the right situation to knock them off. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-20-19 | Calgary v. Toronto OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury to wide receiver Reggie Begelton for the Stamps. However, Calgary also is going to be without their leading tackler, linebacker Cory Greenwood. That said, Toronto is going to score their fair share of points in this one. This is particularly true because they are at home for this one also. But I just don't see the Argos being able to stop a potent West Division offense even with the Stampeders being with a top wide receiver. Calgary still have plenty of firepower all over the field and the Stamps enter this game off a low-scoring win. Rarely do the Stampeders ever have back to back low-scoring performances. Prior to the tight win over Hamilton, Calgary had averaged 31 points per game in their 3 prior games. As for the Argonauts offense, they seemed to respond to their "wake-up call" of a late July shutout loss to Edmonton. Ever since then Toronto has scored an average of 30 points per game and 4 of their 5 games since being shutout by the Eskimos have gone over the total. Look for the Stampeders over to improve to 3-0 in their past 3 road games with a high-scoring contest expected here. The past two seasons, when Calgary is facing a team with a losing record in a game played in the second half of a season, the over is 3-1. Toronto's over is 4-1 this season when facing a team with a winning record. Also, in September games the Argonauts are 9-1 to the over. All these trends continue Friday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-14-19 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan OVER 49.5 | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - There are a lot of trends that point to the under for this game and their first match-up this season stayed well under the total. However, I am riding high with the over here because the Riders are off back to back sub-par showings on offense this season. Normally Saskatchewan has bounced back every single time off a low-scoring game and I fully expect that here after scoring just 10 points last week. QB Cody Fajardo and the Riders are fired up for a strong game and they want to stretch the field and put pressure on the Als and force them to play catch-up. Saskatchewan does not want to allow the Alouettes to get into a ball-control ground-based attack that serves them well. The Riders want to force QB Vernon Adams and Montreal out of their typical came plan. By the way, the Als are also off a low-scoring effort last week and, like the Riders, Montreal has shown a knack for bouncing back with strong games offensively when off a rare dud in terms of offensive production. Montreal had scored 27 points or more in 5 of 7 games previous to being held to 21 points last week. The Roughriders, prior to back to back low-scoring results (first time this season!) had averaged 31 points per game over an 8-week stretch. I am looking for a 33-27 type game here and that total is double digits in excess of the current posted number on this game. Keep in mind, non-conference match-ups for these teams (their own earlier match-up this season notwithstanding) have proven to be high-scoring affairs more often than not. This one flies over the total as the weather forecast is also a good one here. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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09-13-19 | Ottawa v. BC -5 | Top | 5-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Friday 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 10 PM ET - A match-up of struggling teams and, of course, many were surprised to see a 1-10 BC team open up as a 7.5 point favorite over a 3-8 Ottawa team! Of course the markets have since pounded this "mistake" by the oddsmakers and the line has dropped down to the -5 range. I have said it many times before and I'll say it many times again in the future, the oddsmakers don't really make "mistakes". The line was set this way with good reason and I love the Lions in this spot. BC is still searching for their first home win. Even though they've still been losing in recent weeks the Lions have made improvements on defense and the offensive line is also giving better protection to QB Mike Reilly as evidenced in last week's game. BC is extra hungry to get that home win but also has extra fire about this game because of hosting former Lions QB Jonathan Jennings whom jettisoned BC to go to Ottawa in this past offseason. Rest assured, BC wants this game very much and they are starting to jell despite what their record would otherwise indicate. Take advantage of the "false" line move here and lay those points knowing that you're getting the best of the number and that you've got a highly motivated team that appears poised to play their best game of the season tonight! Look for the Lions to improve to 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams as they get the much-needed home win tonight and it comes by a convincing margin. 10* BC LIONS |
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09-07-19 | Calgary v. Edmonton OVER 47 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos @ Calgary Flames @ 7 ET - It looks like it was an easy under last week when these same teams met on Monday in Calgary but it truly wasn't. The final score of the game took place on the very FIRST play of the fourth quarter and that brought the game total to 34 points but then there was no more scoring in the final 15 minutes of action. That is not the big story though as the bigger story was the fact that in terms of field goals and touchdowns there were EIGHT scores but the problem for over players was that SIX were field goals and only TWO were touchdowns. Once again, just like last week, the team swill move the ball quite well but this time we'll have more points to show for it. The Stampeders got Bo Levi Mitchell back last week and he threw for 263 yards while running back KaDeem Carey ran for 143 yards. Edmonton's defense will again be put to the test this week. The difference this week though is that, at home, the Eskimos score much better. QB Trevor Harris completed 77% of his passes last week for over 200 yards but Edmonton managed only three field goals and zero touchdowns. That won't happen again as they respond big at home and I look for Harris to really make this game all about an aerial assault on his part. There will be a ton of big passing from the home team in this one. The over improves to 3-0 this season when the Eskimos are a home favorite of 7 points or less. Calgary's over also improves to 3-0 in road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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09-06-19 | BC v. Montreal OVER 50 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off bye weeks which were preceded by games that went under the total. However, BC is 4-2 to the over when coming off a bye week. Also, Montreal's game at Toronto two weeks ago had no business staying under the total. The teams combined for over 900 yards of offense! Considering that as well as the fact that the Alouettes entered that game on a 4-2 run to the over, I love the over in this match-up. Montreal has now allowed over 100 yards on the ground each of their past two games plus an average of 400 passing yards their past two games! As for the Lions defense, they are allowing 32.1 points per game on the season. Only Toronto has allowed more points per game than BC. Mike Reilly did throw for nearly 300 yards in the Lions low-scoring loss prior to their bye week. They'll put a lot more points on the board in this inter-divisional match-up. This one will be a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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09-02-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary OVER 47 | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4:30 ET - I am well aware of the fact that this is a fierce rivalry game and these types of games tend to be lower scoring. However, this total is simply far too low given the situation. The Eskimos Trevor Harris continues to light it up through the air and leads the CFL in passing yards. The Stampeders are getting a boost this week with the return of their starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Calgary will be taking on an Edmonton defense that has allowed an average of 30 points the past two weeks. As for the Stamps defense, they entered last week's bye having allowed an average of 33 points per game their past two games. These teams met a month ago and Calgary won 24-18 but the Eskimos got 373 passing yards from Harris in that game and certainly should have scored much more than 18 points. That low-scoring result is helping to give us value here with Monday's total. This total has dropped to as low as a 47 after opening up above a 50. I'll take the extra value as Mitchell couldn't wait to get back on the field and it helps that his return comes at home while I also don't see the weekly aerial assault display from Harris slowing down here. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Calgary |
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09-01-19 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET - This line was as high as a -7 on the Riders and has dropped down to as low as a -5 as of early game day morning. In my typical preferred contrarian style, I am fading the market move and grabbing the extra line value here. This is Saskatchewan's chance to catch the Blue Bombers in the standings. How can they do that when they are 4 points back? Well the key is that this is the first game of a "home and home" series with the Bombers as they meet again in Winnipeg next week. Saskatchewan also gets the benefit of catching the Blue Bombers without their starting QB and now their RB will miss both games of this series. Andrew Harris was suspended by the league for two games and that certainly will hurt the ground attack of the Bombers. That will put even more pressure on QB Chris Streveler (filling in for the injured Mike Nichols). Yes Streveler was under center for Winnipeg's win last week but he was held under 100 passing yards in that game! The Roughriders, conversely, saw Cody Fajardo have another big game at the pivot for them last week as he threw for 241 yards. Saskatchewan is known as the toughest place for road teams to play in this league and you know it will be rocking for this huge match-up hosting the top team in the division standings. That said, I am happy to lay the small points here in what shapes up to be a home blowout. The Riders are riding a 5-0 SU/ATS win streak heading into this one and I look for the Roughriders to improve to 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Winnipeg. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto OVER 54 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Montreal Alouettes @ Noon ET - The Argonauts are having a miserable season but are at home where they have averaged 27 points per game their past two games. While Toronto is starting to turn the corner (finally) in terms of offensive production at home, the Argos defense is a major weakness. Toronto has allowed 35.3 points per game this season and they now host a red hot Alouettes offensive unit. Montreal has scored an average of 38 points per game in its past two road games and this is a team that has plenty of momentum. After an impressive OT win at Calgary last week, the Als have now won 4 of their past 6 games and Vernon Adams, Jr. continues to pile up yardage through the air for the Alouettes. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Montreal's last 5 Sunday games. The over is 10-5 the last 15 times the Argonauts have been a home dog. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Argos QB, has thrown for 543 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs his past two games. Both teams getting solid QB of late and this one turns into a shootout. That is why the game total opened up at a 55.5 and now that the markets have pushed it lower (54) it is "go time" with this totals selection as I don't foresee many defensive stops in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-24-19 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan -9.5 | Top | 18-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Saskatchewan is off a bye week. Ottawa is off another disappointing loss last week as their offense continues to flounder. The Roughriders also are playing this game with revenge since a Week Two loss to the Redblacks. Ever since that game in Ottawa, this is a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Redblacks have lost 6 of their past 7 games and have been held to an average of just 11.5 points in those 6 losses! The Riders, on the other hand, have won 5 of their past 6 games and they have averaged 31.2 points in those 5 wins. Saskatchewan enters this game fresh off a bye and they are known for being very tough at home where they have arguably the best home field advantage in the CFL with a strong fan base. The Riders have won 4 straight games and will make it 5 in a row here. Considering the big difference in the way the offensive units have been performing for these two teams, as well as the revenge angle and the home field edge, it is plain to see why I am willing to lay the big points here. The line opened up at 10.5 with good reason but has fallen to a 9.5 and I look for the Riders to win this game by at least a pair of touchdowns. The Roughriders are also 2nd in the league for total offense and total defense while the Redblacks rank near the bottom in both of those categories. Also, if you look at those stats from Week 3 onward, the difference in these teams is even more pronounced. In terms of trending, Ottawa is 2-4 ATS when off a loss against a divisional foe. The Riders are 4-2 ATS when coming off a bye week and are also on a 6-2 ATS run in August games. More of the same expected here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-23-19 | Winnipeg +6.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Edmonton Eskimos @ 9 ET - Big line move toward Edmonton here. That is because everyone is aware that Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last week's game in the 4th quarter with an injury. However, what is being under-estimated by the betting markets here is that Blue Bombers back-up QB Chris Streveler got plenty of experience filling in for Nichols last season plus he has seen action this season as well. He is not a "normal" back-up in the sense that he gets used at times throughout games. That said, this is a huge game where a pair of teams are battling it out for West Division supremacy. Yes the Eskimos have revenge but they are being overvalued here. The Blue Bombers have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Also, Winnipeg is 8-4 SU and ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are playing against a team with a winning record. The Eskimos are 6-15 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Prior to last week's cover against a bad Argonauts team, Edmonton was on a 3-7 ATS run in August games. That poor trending resumes here! The Blue Bombers are 4-0 SU in divisional games this season while the Eskimos are only 2-2 SU in divisional games. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-17-19 | Hamilton -2 v. Ottawa | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 4 ET - Both teams have injuries at the QB position but the Tiger-Cats are getting much better play at that spot. Dane Evans helped lead Hamilton back from a big late-game deficit last week and certainly has not been making the same mistakes that the Ottawa QB has. The Redblacks have had to turn to Dominique Davis at the pivot and he has a 5 TD's against 11 INT's! Davis leads the CFL in interceptions and, of course, that is not a category for which one wants to hold that distinction! Though some will view this game as a big motivational edge for the Redblacks as they host the first place team in their division, there is actually another way to look at this that I believe is a key factor in motivation. The first-place Tiger-Cats have lost 5 straight meetings with Ottawa. Their head coach, Orlondo Steinauer, certainly hasn't forgotten as he referenced that they (Redblacks) got them good last year. In other words, the Ti-Cats are out for some revenge this week and I like the fact that Ottawa is going through a lot of personnel changes at all the skill positions plus has a turnover-prone QB. Davis will be throwing to some new starting receivers this week too plus their running back is now out. The Tiger-Cats are not without injuries too but they are a much more "settled team" at this point in the season and they get revenge for last season's series sweep at the hands of Ottawa. Keep in mind, the Redblacks enter this game having lost 5 of their last 6 games. This line opened up at a -4 and has dropped to a -2 on the Tiger-Cats. I love to fade line moves like this one given the above. 10* HAMILTON |
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08-16-19 | Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 7:30 ET - No team in the CFL has allowed fewer points than the Eskimos this season. No team in the CFL has scored fewer points than the Argonauts this season. That said, this looks "easy", right? We all know what happens when something looks "easy" of course. The fact is there is more than meets the eye here at first glance. Toronto is off a bye week which was preceded by the Argos getting their first win of the season and it came in a huge upset as a double digit home dog against Winnipeg. I look for Toronto to use this for momentum here at home and coming off a bye week. That will translate to some success on offense again for the Argonauts but truly their defense can not be trusted. They have allowed an average of 34 points per game on the season. That is why I love the over in this match-up because I don't see the Argos stopping Edmonton in this game. It is a revenge game for the Argonauts after they were shutout in the first meeting earlier this season at Edmonton. Also, the Eskimos have a huge divisional match-up on deck with division-leading Winnipeg next week. That coupled with the fact that Edmonton shut out Toronto earlier this season could lead to a bit of a lackadaisical effort from the Eskimos defense in this one. The Argonauts will take advantage and score plenty here but they can't stop the Edmonton offense. The most recent meeting between these teams stayed under the total but the over was 10-3 in the 13 prior meetings and that long-term trend resumes here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-15-19 | BC +11 v. Winnipeg | Top | 16-32 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #689 Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - The Lions got beat by double digits at home in their season opener when they hosted the Blue Bombers two months ago. Not only is this a revenge game but it also is a match-up offering great situational edges too. While Winnipeg is off a big divisional win over Calgary and has another huge divisional match-up on deck at Edmonton, BC is off a loss at Hamilton and has the same Tiger-Cats (non-divisional opponent) on deck for next week. That said, I love getting the generous points being offered here. The Blue Bombers benefited last week from a huge game from their special teams. The point is that, from a statistical standpoint, Winnipeg really was not overly impressive last week. On the other hand, the Lions were quite impressive from a statistical standpoint in their tight loss to the Ti-Cats. QB Mike Reilly did throw a couple INTs in addition to his couple TDs but that is what keyed the one-point loss. That said, I like the great value being offered here with the double digit road dog. 10* BC LIONS |
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08-10-19 | BC v. Hamilton OVER 51 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - Hamilton is fired up off a 5-point loss at Saskatchewan and will be ready to take out their frustration on a weak BC defense. The Lions are coming off a bye week and will be ready to respond after being held to just 18 points in a home loss prior to the week off. Note that the last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged 57.4 points per game and the posted total on this one has dropped down to a 51 as of early Saturday morning. The Tiger-Cats have scored an average of 44 points per game in their last two home games against BC! The Lions have averaged a respectable 24.5 points per game in their 4 road games this season. The over is 5-1 this season when BC is an underdog. The over is 12-5 the past 3 seasons combined when the Tiger-Cats are playing against a team with a losing record. The Lions have allowed 37.3 points per game in their 6 defeats this season and BC has given up at least 33 points in all 6 of their defeats. Considering that as well as the fact that the Lions have scored 23 points or more in all but one of their road games, you can see why this game is offering great value on the high side of the total. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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08-08-19 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -7 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8:30 ET - This game is for first place in the West Division. Long-term the Stampeders hold a huge edge in this series as they've won 19 of the last 22 meetings. However, this line opened up as high as a -10 on the Blue Bombers with plenty of good reason. Now that the markets, as expected, have moved it down to a -7 on Winnipeg, it is "go time" with this one. The Blue Bombers saw their unbeaten season come to and two weeks ago at Hamilton. Then last week on Thursday they blew a 20-0 lead at Toronto to get upset by a single point as a huge favorite. Can you imagine how fired up Winnipeg will be at home for this game after all this that has transpired the past two weeks? Keep in mind the Blue Bombers are still undefeated at home this season and they catch Calgary off a big home win over Edmonton last week. Not only was that a big divisional win for the Stamps, it also came on Saturday so the Bombers have a nice rest edge in this match-up. Additionally, the Stampeders are still down to their back-up quarterback and I look for an angry Winnipeg team to respond huge at home in this game and play their best game of the season thus far on both sides of the ball. The situational aspects of this game favor the Blue Bombers in a big way and the odds makers had it right with their bigger number on the opener of this game. Look for the home team to win in a blowout by double digits. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-03-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #695 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and I like to look for lines that look a little "off" where I am confident the masses are going to be looking one way and so we jump in on the opposite side and look the other way. It is something that has worked very well for me through the years and I expect that to again be the case in this Saturday match-up. Edmonton is AT Calgary and yet the Eskimos are a slight favorite here. Basically the line is right around a pick'em but most are going to look at this game and say, "Oh, I can take the defending CFL champs on their home field at a pick'em" and they'll be all over the Stampeders here. The fact is that the odds makers set the line this way with good reason. For one thing Calgary is still using Nick Arbuckle at QB because of the Bo Levi Mitchell injury. Admittedly, Arbuckle has surprised this season. However, he still has a total of only 2 touchdowns (plus also 2 picks thrown) in his last 3 games. This included games against Ottawa and Toronto too. Those two teams, even after rare wins this week, are a combined 4-10 on the season! Arbuckle is going to face a much tougher test here and I like the fact that Eskimos QB Trevor Harris entered this week's action as the #1 passer in the CFL for passing yards! He is fully capable of another huge game here and you know they've had this game circled in red as this is a heated rivalry and the Eskimos appear to be on the way up this season while the Stamps are regressing as they are suffering a "Grey Cup hangover" this season plus have the injury at QB spot. 10* EDMONTON |
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08-02-19 | Ottawa v. Montreal OVER 52.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - The total opened up at a 54.5 but has dropped to 52.5 as of early morning on game day. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. The Alouettes are off a bye week and that was preceded by a low-scoring win. The Redblacks are off a tight low-scoring loss last week at home against Calgary. This has led to value here with the over because their prior game results are being over-valued here and I am expecting this one to play out much differently than those games. These two teams are ranked 8th and 9th in the 9-team CFL for team defense in terms of yards allowed per game. Also, Montreal has allowed 26 points per game and Ottawa has allowed 30 points per game on the season. Both defenses are likely to struggle here and I like the QB play we've been seeing from both of these squads. That being said, throw the trends out the window here (I am aware the trending favors the under here) and look for this one to get much closer to 60 points than 50 points! 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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08-01-19 | Hamilton +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Thursday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughridgers @ 9:30 ET - Hamilton lost starting QB Jeremiah Masoli to a season-ending knee injury during last week's big win over Winnipeg as they handed the Blue Bombers their first loss of the season. The odds makers are aware of this. Dane Evans, a successful QB in college with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, will start in his place. The odds makers are aware of this. The point I am making is that this line opened up at a pick'em with plenty of good reason but the markets have pushed Saskatchewan to being a 3-point favorite in this spot as if the odds makers don't know what their doing. Yes this is a revenge game for the Roughriders as they lost at Hamilton in their season opener this year. However, Saskatchewan has struggled against quality teams this season. They got blown out by Calgary a few weeks ago. The Riders also lost to an Ottawa team that is now 2-4 on the season. Saskatchewan is 3-3 on the season and 2 of the wins have come against a BC team that is 1-6 on the year and the other win came against a Toronto team that is 0-6 on the season! Until the Roughriders prove they can beat a quality opponent I have no problem fading them. Also, you know the Tiger-Cats are in a "rally the troops" mode after losing Masoli to injury last week. This will be their first full game without him and everyone will bring their "A game" in support of Evans, the new starting QB. You see this in all sports where the first game after an injury there is often a "rally the troops" game and that is what I am expecting here. Love the value with the +3 and betting on a team that is 5-1 this season and going against a team whose only wins have come against bad teams. Keep in mind the Tiger-Cats defense allowing just 19 points per game this season and the Ti-Cats have a rest edge here since they played last week on Friday. Saskatchewan played on Saturday last week and so this is a very short rest spot for them on Thursday. 10* HAMILTON |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan -2.5 v. BC | Top | 45-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - I have tremendous respect for the odds makers and this is true even in CFL. Sure this is not a big market place for them but every game in every sport that has a number on it has great thought and research put into it for specialists from that sport. That being said, I have an interesting viewpoint on this game based on what the odds makers did here. Keep in mind last week Saskatchewan was at home against BC and the Roughriders opened up as only a 2-point favorite. Now, knowing that the Riders won last week's game and that the Lions have revenge in this game and that home teams have dominated the series between these teams, how in the world could Saskatchewan have opened up as 3.5-point road favorites here? Exactly! My point is that the whole world (at least the betting world that pays attention to CFL) is likely to be lining up on the home dog revenge-minded Lions here. As for me, I'll side with the sharpest minds in the industry...those on the other side of the counter...the odds makers! Doesn't work all the time of course...nothing does...but this is an angle I like to use a lot. In this specific case, it may seem surprising to see this line on Saskatchewan but don't be fooled. It is has already come down to as low as a -2 because the markets are doing precisely what I would expect them to do given the above. Let's take advantage and lay the short number with the road favorite. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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07-26-19 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +2.5 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Winnipeg is 5-0 on the season and that means the Blue Bombers have the attention of everyone as the only remaining team in the league that is undefeated. However, the very first lines that popped up globally on this game had Hamilton as the 2-point favorite. Now, as of early Friday morning, the Tiger-Cats are a 2.5 point dog. This is a great value opportunity on a home dog. While I certainly respect the 5-0 Blue Bombers, note that Hamilton is a solid 4-1 on the season as well plus they are coming off a bye week. Also, about that 5-0 for Winnipeg...note that 4 of the wins have come against Ottawa (2), BC, and Toronto. Those teams, after Redblacks and Argonauts lost last night, are a combined 3-15 on the season! The only team with a winning record that the Blue Bombers have beaten was Edmonton - currently 4-2 on the season after last night's victory. A win is a win as they say but do note that the Eskimos outgained the Bombers in the aforementioned game and it was at Winnipeg. Also, Edmonton scored SEVEN times in the game but the problem for the Eskimos was that all 7 scores were field goals! Give the Blue Bombers credit for keeping them out of the end zone but the fact is that Edmonton moved he ball quite well in that game. The home team won both games (SU) last season and I look for that trend to continue here but will grab the points as insurance. 10* HAMILTON |
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07-25-19 | Toronto v. Edmonton OVER 51 | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9:30 PM ET - It will still be windy during the day in Edmonton but the breezy conditions will be subsiding as evening comes and I expect only moderate winds for this one Thursday night in Alberta. The line has moved down to as low as 51 as everyone is liking the under after the Eskimos scored only 10 points last week and the Argonauts managed to put just 16 points on the board. Keep in mind this is a non-conference match-up and these types of match-ups, especially with Toronto being winless on the season, don't bring out the best usually in terms of level of defensive play. Also, Edmonton could get caught looking ahead to their big match-up with division (and provincial rival) Calgary that is coming up next week. The Argonauts are allowing 37.6 points per game this season. The over is 3-1 in Toronto's last 4 Thursday games. The Eskimos are a double digit favorite and the over is 18-8 the last 26 times they have been a favorite of 10 or more points. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Alberta. Toronto has averaged 332 passing yards per game their last 3 games and the Eskimos will take advantage of the Argonauts porous defense as well. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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07-25-19 | Calgary v. Ottawa +6 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 8* Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - This line has been on the rise for the favored Stampeders because everyone is looking at the revenge angle from their Week 1 home loss in Calgary. However, what about the fact that the Stamps are off a big win here and they have division rival Edmonton on deck? Also, what about the fact that Ottawa scored just 1 point in last week's ugly loss and also the fact that this is the one and only time on the schedule that the Redblacks get the chance (on their own home field) to get revenge for last year's Grey Cup loss? The fact is that Ottawa is what I would term a "live dog" in a match-up like this and I am grabbing the generous points. Note that Calgary is 0-3 ATS in non-conference games this season and also 0-3 ATS in games in which they have been a favorite. Certainly with this line hanging around a full TD the line definitely is not insignificant. This is particularly true when you consider that the Redblacks are 16-7 ATS as an underdog including a superb 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they have been a home underdog. 8* OTTAWA |
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07-20-19 | BC v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 25-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #695 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total Saskatchewan Roughriders vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - Contrarian play, which as long-time followers know, is quite typical for me. The Lions scored only 6 points in last week's loss and everyone is deeming QB Mike Reilly to BC for this season to be a bust. But, keep in mind, we have a long way to go this season and I fully expect the Lions offensive production to get back on track this week. As for the Roughriders, they are off their bye week and that was preceded by Saskatchewan scoring just 10 points in a home loss to Calgary. Based on the ugly scoring results for each of these teams last week, both teams (including their QBs) have plenty to prove here. Keep in mind the Riders now face a weaker defense than they did in their most recent game (that was against the Stampeders). Under center for the Roughriders is Cody Fajardo for the injured Zach Collaros. The most recent game notwithstanding, Fajardo has played quite well and I also know full well what Reilly is capable of and I am expecting both teams (and their QBs) to respond huge this week. The Riders had averaged 30 points per game in their first 3 games this season and the Lions had averaged 24 points per game in their first 4 games this season. That equates to 54 points but, because of the most recent game for each team, we've got a total hovering around 50 here. Value is big here and note that the over is 3-1 in BC's divisional games this season. The over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Roughriders have been a home favorite of 7 or less points. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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07-19-19 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg OVER 51.5 | Top | 1-31 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 8:30 ET - I like the overs in situations that have all the elements we are seeing in this match-up. Winnipeg already beat Ottawa, a non-conference foe, earlier this season. The Blue Bombers have Hamilton on deck. Even though the Tiger-Cats are another non-conference foe, if the Winnipeg defense was going to get geared up about facing someone it would be the streaking Ti-Cats next week. Hamilton has the best record in the East and the undefeated Bombers, of course, have the best record in the West. That sets up a showdown for next week and I could see the Blue Bombers defense being a little lax in this one as a result. As for the Redblacks defense, they are likely to be shredded by a powerhouse Winnipeg offense further strengthened by QB Matt Nichols looking sharp last week after his Week 4 injury. Prior the previous meeting between these teams this season staying under the total, 4 of the last 5 had gone over the total. Also, the over is 6-3 in the last 9 meetings between these teams at Winnipeg. Ottawa's game hosting the Blue Bombers earlier this season was the only game this season that has been an under for the Redblacks. Their QB Dominique Davis has had trouble with throwing too many picks but he is a dual threat and will run more than he did in the first meeting between these teams. He has 5 rushing TDs this season and also had a 3-TD passing game earlier this season. This total has gone from 55 to 51.5 and is therefore offering even more value here with pleasant weather also expected here. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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07-18-19 | Toronto +12.5 v. Calgary | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Thursday 10* Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - The Stampeders have only 1 home loss this season and it came against the Redblacks. Ottawa and Calgary also have met twice for the Grey Cup title in the past three season. Keep in mind the Stampeders loss to the Redblacks was in their home opener! That said, who do the Stamps have on deck for next week? Ottawa! Who are the playing this week? The only winless team in the CFL, Toronto. The Argonauts are 0-4 on the season and I could see the Stampeders looking right past them here. I still expect Calgary to win but I expect the victory margin to be single digits and I love the value with the road dog here. The Stampeders starting quarterback, Bo Levi Mitchell, is out and that means Nick Arbuckle continues to get time under center. He has struggled to get Calgary deep into the red zone in games. As for the Argos, they have Mcleod Bethel-Thompson under center and he threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 TDs last week. I feel we've got great underdog line value here as the Argonauts running attack was also better than Calgary's in last week's action. 10* TORONTO |
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07-13-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 51 | Top | 36-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - Montreal had one bad game offensively but they've averaged 30.5 points per game in their other two games. Ottawa had a flat performance last week following a bye week but the Redblacks had averaged 38 points per game in their two prior games this season. The last 5 meetings between these teams have all resulted in unders and that has helped move this total move down from a 52.5 to a 51 as of early game day morning and I love the extra value now being offered here. Montreal has red hot running back William Stanback whom ran for over 200 yards last week. That will result in the Ottawa defense having to focus some attention on him which will open up the passing game for Alouettes QB Vernon Adams. For the Redblacks, it is Dominique Davis at QB and he has plenty of playmaking ability but must cut down on his mistakes as he has thrown too many interceptions. Davis was stronger in the first two games and I look for him to bounce back after he and the Redblacks ran into a buzzsaw when they faced the Blue Bombers last week. Keep in mind, Winnipeg won again last night and the 4-0 Bombers are the only undefeated team in the league and they are allowing just 19.8 points per game. Now Ottawa can take advantage of a Montreal team that is allowing 34 points per game. A lot of playmakers on the field in this one and I expect the early market move in this one to prove false as this game flies over the total. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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07-12-19 | Toronto v. Winnipeg OVER 51 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts @ 8:30 ET - With the Argonauts and Blue Bombers both entering this match-up off back to back unders, most will be looking that way in this game. However, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings in Winnipeg have gone over the total. The Blue Bombers have averaged 40 points per game in their last 3 games hosting the Argos. Toronto enters this game doing a good job through the air on offense except they don't have the points to show for it. That is leading to some value here as they could get overlooked by the Blue Bombers as Winnipeg is off a big road win last week and now facing a winless non-conference opponents. These are the types of games where defenses get overconfident and overlook an opponent and it would not surprise to see Winnipeg's D expecting this to be a cakewalk at home and then they end up being surprised. One thing is for sure though, Blue Bombers offense should enjoy a huge game here as the Argonauts are allowing 378 passing yards per game this season! Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last game with a neck injury but is probable for this game. Toronto QB James Franklin is current out but McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for over 300 yards in last week's game. The Argonauts points will finally be commensurate with their yardage output in this game but their leaky D won't be able to stop the potent Blue Bomber attack. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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07-11-19 | Edmonton v. BC +4.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 BC Lions (+) vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 10 PM ET - Everyone is down on the Lions right now and, that is why, once the first line was posted at Eskimos -2.5, everyone jumped all over Edmonton and the line shot up to as high as a -5. I love the value with the home dog BC in this one. Yes, the Lions finally got their first win last week and it was an unimpressive 1-point win over the Argonauts. However, getting that first win (no matter how ugly) was key. Keep in mind they faced a desperate Argos team and it was on the road and a win is a win as they say! That being the case, BC also might have been peeking ahead at this revenge game with the Eskimos. Keep in mind the Lions got drilled at Edmonton already this season and BC quarterback Mike Reilly and the Lions would like revenge against his former team (and a division rival). I like the fact that BC has revenge here, they are at home, and they got their running game going big-time last week with John White having a huge game. The Lions are 10-4 (both SU and ATS) the last 14 times they've hosted Edmonton. Overall, BC is 7-3 SU in its last 10 home games and I am happy to get them here at home plus get some points! As for Edmonton, they are on a 3-6 ATS run their last 9 games. Also, the Eskimos are 1-4 ATS (and 0-5 SU!) in their last 5 road games! The Lions haven't been at home since their season opener 4 weeks ago and they will make the most of this opportunity. Even though Edmonton is off a bye week, their history of struggles on the road can not be ignored and the Lions have momentum after last week's win. 10* BC Lions |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto OVER 54.5 | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - A match-up of two winless teams and the oddsmakers set this total in the upper 50s for a reason. You don't think the oddsmakers know that the Argonauts have averaged just 10.5 points per game in their first two games? Of course they do. But yet the betting markets are jumping all over the under in this game even though the Lions have allowed at least 33 points in all 3 of their games. Yes, BC is 0-3 on the season but they do have Mike Reilly at QB and they've been putting up some big points. The Lions should have no trouble with the Argos defense (especially with Toronto on a short week as they just played Monday) but the issue for BC is a leaky defense. Yes, the Argos have been ugly so far on offense but they will be better in what is just their 2nd home game this season. Toronto got shell-shocked in their first home game as they were the only team that didn't play in week one (bye week) and then got blasted in week two. Then in week three the Argos ran into a buzzsaw as they faced an angry Roughriders team that was 0-2 and playing their home opener. That led to an ugly loss for Toronto. I am saying there is a reason the Argos have scored so few points this season and I am saying the oddsmakers had it right with a bigger number on this game and we should see this one get into the 60s for totals points scored as the over improves to 4-0 in Lions games this season. BC went 5-2 to the over in July games the past two seasons. Toronto is 12-7 to the over when playing with 6 or less days of rest. The Argonauts are 8-4 to the over when they are a home underdog. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - There is still an East-West dichotomy in the CFL in my opinion and it favors the West. This match-up is a good example of that as the Blue Bombers have gone 6-2 against East Division foes each of the last two seasons. As for the Redblacks, they managed a 5-5 mark against West Division foes last season and an ugly 3-6-1 mark against the West the prior season. As you can see that means Winnipeg is 12-4 the past two seasons in non-divisional action while Ottawa is 8-11-1 in non-divisional action. That said, and considering the Redblacks have some injury issues on defense here, I am happy to grab the generous points being offered to the Blue Bombers. Even though Ottawa is off a bye week, they are actually 1-5 ATS the past two seasons when off a bye. Also, the Redblacks are 5-11 ATS as a home favorite. Ottawa's QB has put up some solid numbers in the first two weeks but has also thrown too many interceptions. Winnipeg has a solid Matt Nichols at QB. Also, the Blue Bombers are 14-7 ATS their last 21 road games. With Montreal upsetting Hamilton last night, these two teams tonight are the last of the unbeatens. Even though Ottawa is 2-0 the Redblacks two wins have both been extremely tight (3 and 4 points) which, in addition to the above, is another reason I love having the underdog Blue Bombers in this match-up. 10* WINNIPEG |
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07-04-19 | Hamilton v. Montreal +12.5 | Top | 29-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Alouettes are 0-2 this season and got blasted last week at Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are 3-0 this season and have delivered back to back blowout wins the past two weeks. It looks easy to lay the points with the road team here, right? Of course it does and in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of this one. I am grabbing the ugly home dog here with Montreal. The fact is that, after last week's blowout win in this same match-up at Hamilton, the Tiger-Cats could very easily get caught looking right past the Alouettes. That's because the Ti-Cats have a huge game at home next week against Calgary. Sure that is a non-divisional match-up but if you don't think Hamilton is looking forward to hosting the defending Grey Cup Champion Stampeders you are mistaken. Montreal managed to hold the Tiger-Cats scoreless in the first quarter of last week's game but then the wheels came off. Keep in mind, this is Montreal's home opener. They are the last team in the CFL to get a home game this season and I expect them to make the most of it. Their defense will perform better for a longer period of time in this game as the home field makes a big difference. We're also getting line value here as this line is the same as it was last week even though the venue has shifted north. Of course the reason it didn't adjust by 6 or 7 points like it normally would is because of last week's final score in this match-up but the point is that this is giving us extra value here with the home dog. Also, as they showed in Week 1 at Edmonton, the Als have the ability to score late points and make things interesting which also means the back-door cover opportunity is there should we need it in this one. I actually think we won't though as I expect the Alouettes to keep this one tight all the way. Hamilton has lost 18 of their last 23 visits to Montreal SU. The Als are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. They'll be the type of scrappy home dog I love to see in this Thursday match-up. 10* MONTREAL |
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07-01-19 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #688 Monday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This line was up near 14 when lines first came out. It is now down to 10 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the home favorite here. Yes, the Roughriders are 0-2 to start the season but this is their first home game of the new season. Also, the teams that Saskatchewan lost to are now a combined 5-0 on the season and the Riders lost each game by just a single possession. Toronto, on the other hand, has played only one game but they got absolutely annihilated by a 50 point margin and that was on their home field no less. Keep in mind, the Argonauts went 0-9 SU in road games last season! Even in their miracle season in 2017 that saw them come together at just the right time for a Grey Cup title, the Argos went 3-6 in regular season road games. Simply put, Toronto is not a good road team and Saskatchewan is arguably the toughest place to play in the league. That said, I expect this one to get ugly quick and, with how angry the Roughriders are, the home team is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one. That is bad news for a Toronto defense that allowed a TD on SEVEN straight possessions during last week's embarrassing loss. The Argonauts are on a 4-9 ATS run as a road underdog. The Roughriders went a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they entered a game off consecutive SU losses. This one has home blowout written all over it as Cody Fajardo played very well last week in place of injured starting QB Zach Collaros and Fajardo and Company will slice and dice this Argos defense while Toronto's futility on offense allows the Riders defense to shine in this one at home. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-29-19 | BC v. Calgary UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-36 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - The over cashed in plenty in Weeks 1 and 2 of this CFL season but we've now seen 2 straight unders here in Week 3 and I am forecasting another one on Saturday evening in Alberta. The last 5 meetings between these teams have all resulted in an under. Additionally, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams in Calgary have resulted in an under. Yes the over is 2-0 in Lions games this season and the Stamps only game thus far also went over the total. However, I see both teams emphasizing the ground game more in this one and also I expect a huge defensive effort from both teams. The Stampeders let one get away in their week one loss. The defense feels responsibility for that as they were up by 12 after just 1 quarter and couldn't get the job done. Additionally, Calgary got outscored 11-0 in the 4th quarter of that game. Look for the defending champs, having taken advantage of the bye week, to come up with a much stronger effort defensively in this game plus to do a lit bit more "grinding of the clock" by utilizing the ground game more in this one. BC is off to a tough start this season as prized offseason acquisition QB Mike Reilly has struggled. The Lions know they need to take some pressure off him by utilizing their ground game a little bit more. BC also knows that the Stamps D proved susceptible to the run in their week one loss. That said, we're going to see some ground game from both teams in this one and that will help it stay under the rather inflated number on this one. The last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged a total of only 41 points. Prior to the Stampeders surprising week one result, the O/U was on a 4-16 run in Stamps games in the month of June. As for the Lions, prior to last week's over, the O/U was on a 4-9 run when BC was off a loss to a divisional foe in the prior week. Look for those trends to resume here as the 6th straight under occurs between these teams on Saturday. 10* UNDER the total in Calgary |
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06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton -12.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The Als managed to rally for the cover in their week one ATS win in a 7 point loss at Edmonton. The Eskimos did have a big lead in that game but then relaxed some and Montreal got back into it. The Alouettes will face a much tougher challenge here because the Tiger-Cats regular season home finale (and fan appreciation day) was ruined by a loss to the Als in early November last year. How did Montreal do it? The situation was helped by the fact that it was a meaningless game for the Ti-Cats as their post-season position for the following week was already set. All the same, Hamilton has been thinking plenty about that loss as they have been preparing for this rematch opportunity. The odds makers hung a 14 on this game but bettors have knocked it down a bit. That has led to value on the hungry and undefeated home favorite here. Hamilton is 2-0 and rolling early this season while the Alouettes organization entered this campaign in full disarray with a late head coaching change (right before the season) among other distractions. Keep in mind, prior to that loss to the Als in the most recent meeting, the 3 prior games had seen Hamilton win all 3 by an average margin of victory of 33 points! Another bloodbath likely here! Montreal is 3-16 SU in their last 19 road games. As for the Tiger-Cats covering the big number here, note that they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 10* HAMILTON |
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg UNDER 58.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 8:30 ET - With all 3 games flying over the total last week as well as the fact that 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams in Winnipeg have gone over the total, we're seeing a lot of upward movement on this total. It is up to a 58.5 and I feel we're getting great line value here with the under as a result. This is a divisional battle. Edmonton has allowed 25 points or less in each of their first two games this season. Winnipeg was off last week so their D is well rested and they allowed only 23 points in their Week 1 victory over BC. So with a total in the upper 50s and the fact both these teams have proven the ability to run the ball and both teams having proven they can play some defense too, this one has the makings of a solid under. Note that 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points have resulted in an under. Also, the under has cashed in an incredible 27 of 35 times when the Eskimos are on the road in a game with a posted total of 56 points or more. This, of course, is the Blue Bombers first time this season coming off a bye week. That is a situation that saw the under go a PERFECT 4-0 the past two seasons. Take advantage of the big number here and look for this one fall well short of it. 10* UNDER the total in Winnipeg |
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06-22-19 | Hamilton v. Toronto +4 | Top | 64-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 4 ET - The Argonauts have a new head coach but certainly he is not new to Toronto. In fact it is Corey Chamblin and he was previously the Argos defensive coordinator. This included their run to the Grey Cup Title in 2017. That said, with Toronto having a bye in week one, they have had plenty of time to prepare for their season opener at home this week against Hamilton. I like the fact that the Tiger-Cats have seen the line double here. Hamilton opened up as a 2 point choice but is now a 4-point favorite as of early game day morning. This means extra value for the home dog Argonauts. That said, you also know that there is plenty of motivation for Chamblin's defense to put the stops on a Tiger-Cats offense led by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton enters this season with expectations to be a top team in the east and the Argonauts are highly motivated to make a statement about that right here. Additionally, I like the fact that the Ti-Cats were outgained by over 100 yards on the ground last week. Hamilton won despite a huge yardage deficit on the ground and, keep in mind, Masoli didn't exactly light it up either. He was held to 169 yards through the air and that was against a Saskatchewan team that then allowed 44 points at Ottawa this week. In other words, don't be surprised when the Argonauts give the Ti-Cats a helluva test here and either win the game outright or lose by 3 points or less. Hamilton is 3-11 SU and ATS in Saturday games the past two seasons. The fact that the Tiger-Cats won all three meetings last season is even more reason to go with the hungry, revenge-minded home underdog here. 10* TORONTO |