Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State v. Utah State +7.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 20 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - LA Bowl ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah State +7.5) Give me the Aggies at +7.5! I'm shocked that we are getting this good a price on Utah State in this game. No one was picking Utah State to even sniff the Mountain West title game, let alone win it. There was optimism that first year head coach Blake Anderson, who did a remarkable job at Arkansas State before landing here, would get this program headed in the right direction. But those expectations were a bit limited given they did go just 1-5 in the shortened 2020 season. Anderson has clearly worked his magic quicker than anyone could have imagined, but a big reason for that is he was able to convince Logan Bonner to transfer alongside him from Ark St. Bonner had thrown for over 3,000 yards with a 30-9 TD-INT ratio with the Red Wolves. He threw for 3,560 yards with 36-11 TD-INT ratio this year. I think there's all kinds of motivation for the Aggies to end their season with a win over a Power 5 opponent. I also think they don't for a second think they should be catching this many points. Oregon State had a great year and were in the Pac-12 race right up to the end. I just think you got to take that with a grain of salt given how down that conference was this year. This is also a Pac-12 conference that has not showed well in bowl games of late. It certainly doesn't feel like it's as big a deal for Oregon State to play in this game. I mean they had to be hoping for a little more than getting a non-Power 5 opponent on the first Saturday of bowl season. I also think the Beavers not having stud linebacker Avery Roberts is a bigger deal than is getting made. Roberts not only led the Beavers with 123 tackles (next best 78), he led the entire Pac-12 conference. Give me Utah State +7.5! |
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12-18-21 | UTEP +12.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 63 h 22 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - New Mexico Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (UTEP +12.5) I will take my chances with UTEP as a 12.5-point dog against the Bulldogs. I'm not big on C-USA as a whole, but I got to take a shot here at this price with the Miners. This has been a breakout season for UTEP, who finished 4-4 in C-USA and 7-5 overall. It's just the 3rd bowl game they will attend since 2005 and the first since 2014. The Miners haven't won a bowl game since they took out Ole Miss in the 1967 Sun Bowl. It's also the first ever bowl game for head coach Dana Dimel, who deserves a ton of credit for getting this team to where it is. He took over a 0-12 team and went just 2-22 his first two years on the job. It's only about a 4-hour drive from El Paso to Albuquerque, so I would think there's plenty of fans who will make the trip. I don't think there's near the excitement surrounding this game for the Bulldogs. Fresno State had a really good season. They won 9 games and showed out in non-conference losing by just 7 on the road to then No. 11 Oregon and beating then No. 13 UCLA on the road. If not for a slip up in Hawaii (lost 27-27) they would have won the West and played in the MWC title game. You got to think they not only wanted to play in a better bowl than this, but also play a bigger program. What do they get out of beating UTEP? Not enough to keep head coach Kalen DeBoer around, as he left to be the new head coach at Washington. Also gone is offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, which I think is the bigger story here. Kirby Moore, who is the wide receivers coach, will call plays for the first time on Saturday. There's also no guarantee that starting quarterback Jake Haener is going to play. He said he was going to transfer to Washington to stick with DeBoer, then changed his mind. It's interesting that instead of just saying the job is Heaner's given he got the team to this game, they aren't going to announce a starter until kickoff. Two freshman are on the depth chart behind Haener. Even if he plays, I think that Fresno State offense will be out of sync with a new play-caller and this UTEP defense is sneaky good. The Miners only gave up 5.1 yards/play, allowed just 3.8 yards per rush and a mere 54% completion rate. Give me UTEP +12.5! |
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12-18-21 | Appalachian State -3 v. Western Kentucky | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Appalachian State -3) I really think the books have made a mistake here not making the Mountaineers a bigger favorite in this matchup. No disrespect to the Hilltoppers, who had one of the more remarkable turnarounds on offense you will see. Last year WKU was one of the worst offenses in the country averaging just 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg. This year they put up 45.5 ppg and 528.4 ypg. The second best marks of every FBS team. Only Ohio State finished ahead of them. For those that don't know, this big turnaround happened when they brought in Houston Baptists offensive coordinator, starting quarterback and three wide receivers. It's a great story and makes their games a lot of fun to watch, but there's a reason this team finished 8-5 with those ridiculous offensive numbers. The defense struggled to contain teams with a pulse offensively. We saw it in their loss to UTSA in the C-USA title game, where they put up 41 points and 568 yards and lost the game 41-48. You also got to take that final score with a grain of salt, as they railed 42-13 to the Roadrunners midway thru the 3rd quarter. Appalachian State is who they have been for years. They are a well coached team that wants to control the line of scrimmage on both sides. They finished the year a very respectable 10-3 with their only loss outside of conference coming by 2-points to Miami and both losses inside to a very very good Louisiana-Lafayette team. One they played much tougher in the Sun Belt title game than they did in the regular-season, which I also think speaks to a typical App State team that just keeps getting better as the season goes on. Might have something to do with why the Mountaineers are a perfect 6-0 in bowl games. I think the Mountaineers will be able to do as they please offensively and really wear down that Western Kentucky defense and I like their pass rush and secondary to make enough plays to get off the field and really make the Hilltoppers have to press the issue offensively. One last thing to note, in App State's 6-game bowl win streak, each of the last 3 have come against teams out of C-USA. Give me the Mountaineers -3! |
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12-17-21 | Toledo -10 v. Middle Tennessee State | 24-31 | Loss | -112 | 37 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Bahamas Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Toledo -10) I don't think a lot of people realize how good this Toledo team is playing to close out the year. Everyone took notice when they played Notre Dame tough early in the year, but they lost the next week at home to Colorado State and then lost 3 of 5 to open up MAC play, all but eliminating them from the MAC title race in early November. A loss is a loss, but all 3 of their defeats in MAC play could have easily been wins. They lost by 2 to Northern Illinois, by 3 in OT to Central Michigan and by 3 to Eastern Michigan. One of the big things that transpired over the course of the season was the emergence of freshman quarterback Dequan Finn who has taken over the job under center from Carter Stanley. Not only does Finn provide a threat to run the ball (418 yards, 8 TDs), he completed 60% of his attempts with a 16-1 TD-INT ratio. Middle Tennessee is down to their 4th string QB and it's not by choice. Not a good sign for a team that struggled to run the ball, averaging just 120 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry. Toledo can build a lead here and keep it, as they provide a potent ground attack that averages 194 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry. Give me the Rockets -10! |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 0 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Chargers MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 51.5) I love the UNDER on Thursday Night Football this week. Even after all the struggles we have seen from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense this year, the public still sees this team as a this offensive juggernaut. Largely because of what we saw from this offense the last two years. I know they just put up 48 points in a blowout win over the Raiders this past Sunday, but a lot of that was A) Las Vegas turned the ball over 5 times, B) the Raiders refusal to play the cover-2 shell that has given Mahomes so much trouble. KC only had 372 total yards. Mahomes completed 20 of 24 but for just 258. This Chiefs offense is so much more methodical. There's not near as many explosive plays and quick scoring drives. At least, against every other team not named the Raiders. The Chargers aren't stupid. They will play the cover-2 shell and make Mahomes dink and dunk and force Andy to run it more than he wants. The other big thing with KC and the UNDER is the play of their defense. You can say what you want about who the schedule has dealt them of late, but you can't be a bad defense and go 3 straight games in today's NFL and give up fewer than 10 points. It's night and day from what this defense looked like to start the year. Chris Jones will be out, which is a huge part of that defense. However, I think it's even bigger that the Chargers are down starting tackle and by far their best linemen in Rashawn Slater. Frank Clark has been wreaking havoc off the edge and Melvin Ingram is a force on the other side. I think that pressure combined with one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL will make it really hard on Herbert and that Chargers offense to do a whole lot. Give me the UNDER 51.5! |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Rams/Cardinals MNF Vegas INSIDER (Rams +2.5) I will take my chances with the Rams as a slim 2.5-point road dog against the Cardinals. I'll admit it's not easy going against Arizona at home laying less than a field goal, but it just feels too good to be true. Everyone is going to be on the Cardinals, which has me taking the Rams. I do like this Rams team and they are do for a real signature type of win. They also will be playing with revenge after getting embarrassed 37-20 at home by Arizona back in Week 4. Give me LA +2.5! |
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12-12-21 | Bears +13 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -118 | 76 h 19 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Bears/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (Bears +13) I love the Bears catching almost two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. This line was going to be inflated on Green Bay no matter when it was played, but even more so with it being a prime time game that is going to get a ton of action. Chicago might not have any business winning this game, but it's not asking a lot for a division opponent to keep it within two touchdowns. Chicago did only lose by a final of 14-24 in the first meeting and that was without starting running back David Montgomery and rookie quarterback Justin Fields still adjusting to the NFL game. Fields definitely has a ways to go, but him getting the start over Andy Dalton at least gives Chicago a chance. Fields didn't do much throwing it against the Packers in the first meeting, but did rush for 43 yards and has been a much bigger threat on the ground as he's gotten more reps. I know the Packers have that No. 1 seed in their sights, but this isn't exactly a game that is going to have their juices flowing. It's a bit of a letdown off that big win against the Rams and a big road game against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on deck. Give me the Bears +13.5! |
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12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs OVER 53 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 53) We took a brutal beat on the OVER last week in the Bucs/Falcons game, but that's not going to keep me from playing the OVER in another Tampa Bay game this week. In fact, I like this one even more with the Bills coming to town. I just think with the way Tom Brady and this Bucs offense is clicking right now and the injuries that Tampa Bay has on the defensive side of the ball, mainly the secondary, they are going to find themselves in some high scoring games. I certainly don't think a Bills defense that just recently lost their star corner, Tre'Davious White, is going to be able to slow down this Bucs passing game. On top of that, I think Buffalo's defense is way overrated, as their numbers have been drastically inflated given all the bad offenses they have faced. Key here is I like Josh Allen and this Bills offense to be able to go score for score with the Bucs. Buffalo is built around the passing game and whether it's been Mother Nature or just some top tier secondaries, they haven't been able to showcase it of late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams eclipsed 30 in this one. Give me the OVER 53! |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2 | 22-24 | Push | 0 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Browns -2) I just really think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland in this spot. Not only do the Browns need this game to stay in the race for the AFC North title, they desperately need a win here just to stay in the playoff picture in the AFC. Not that motivation was going to be an issue, but this one will mean a little more to Cleveland, as they went into their bye last week off a hard fought 16-10 loss at Baltimore. While the Browns have had two full weeks to get ready for their shot at revenge, Baltimore had to play at Pittsburgh this past Sunday and it didn't go as planned with the Ravens losing 19-20 on a failed 2-pt attempt at the end of regulation. Not only is the spot bad for Baltimore, but this is a banged up Ravens team. They got 17 guys on IR with 7 of those being starters and 3 of them former Pro Bowl players. They have really been decimated in the secondary, which just lost starter Marlon Humphrey in the loss to Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been a mess and it's shown in the recent struggles of Lamar, who has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 24 times in their last 6 games. I know this game still comes down to the play of Baker Mayfield and the Browns ability to get the ground game going, which is no sure thing. However, I just think the extra rest, especially for Mayfield will pay off in a big home win. Give me the Browns -2! |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team +4.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Football Team +4.5) I have to roll the dice and take Washington as a 4.5-point home dog in Sunday's division showdown with the Cowboys. The Football Team has really came out of nowhere to turn their season around with 4 straight wins. All of it starting when they came out of their bye and beat the Tom Brady and the Bucs 29-19 as a 10-point dog. All 4 of their wins during this run have came as a dog and I think you got to ride this team in this underdog role as long as you can. You could argue their turnaround started before the bye, as they could have easily won at Green Bay and at Denver in the two games leading up to the extra week off. The running game has really sparked the offense and the defense is playing exceptionally well right now. Washington has allowed 21 or fewer points in 5 straight. As for the Cowboys, they always are inflated when it comes to the spread because the public just can't help themselves. I just don't like what I've seen out of Dallas of late. The defense has to force turnovers to be any good and the offense has not been in sync since Dak got hurt. Give me the Football Team +4.5! |
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12-12-21 | Jaguars +8.5 v. Titans | 0-20 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Jaguars +8.5) As difficult as it is to go into a game needing the Jags to play well, I have to take my chances with Jacksonville at 8.5 against the Titans. I just don't understand what Tennessee has done besides go on their bye week that makes you think this team is going to look any different than it did prior to the bye. It's just not the same team without Derek Henry to really dictate the game. Not only can the Titans not run the ball, defenses no longer have to load the box to try and stop him. I know the numbers aren't great and it hasn't resulted in a lot of close games, but the Jaguars defense isn't as bad as what people think. They haven't allowed an opposing QB to throw for more than 290 yards in 6 straight games and this is a stretch where they have faced some decent teams and QBs. If we can just get a little something out of that Jags offense, they might just win this game outright. Give me Jacksonville +8.5! |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 65 h 1 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Army/Navy MAX UNIT Top Play (Navy +7.5) I not only think Navy is going to cover the 7.5, I think they have a really good shot here of winning this game outright. This is not as lopsided a matchup as the records for these two teams would suggest with Army coming in at 8-3 and Navy at 3-8. Navy has by far played the tougher schedule. They caught zero breaks in the AAC this year, having to play Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, UCF, Tulsa and ECU. They also played Notre Dame in non-conference. Some of the losses early were ugly, but 3 of their last 5 defeats came by 7 or less. Army played two Power 5 teams in Wisconsin and Wake Forest. Their other games against FBS teams were against the likes of Georgia St, WKU, UConn, Miami (OH), Ball St, Air Force, UMass and Liberty. You also got to love the fact that Navy is playing for revenge in this matchup. Not to mention the value of getting 7.5 points in a game where the total is a mere 34 points. Give me the Midshipmen +7.5! |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
50* (NFL) -Steelers/Vikings MAX UNIT Top Play (Vikings -3) I love Minnesota at -3. The Vikings are the much better team, but there's been an overreaction with the public on these two teams after last week's results. The Vikings just lost a game to the Lions, who hadn't won a game all season. It doesn't get much worse than that. Pittsburgh on the other hand beat a Ravens team that came in with the best record in the AFC. It was also a game many were calling a "must-win" for the Steelers. As bad as it looks losing to the Lions, it's not as bad as what it's being made out to be. In all honesty, that's a Detroit team that could have a handful of wins this year. They are still not out of a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-7. It really feels a lot like the spot Pittsburgh was in last week, where Minnesota has to win here if they want to realistically have a shot. I would clearly say the Vikings have the motivation edge. While not technically a dog, this to me will be a home team playing with a chip on their shoulder. I also just don't think this Steelers team is that good. People forget they tied the Lions and more than half (4) of their wins have come by 5 or fewer points. Give me the Vikings -3! |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Pats/Bills MNF Vegas INSIDER (Patriots +3) I've been on this Patriots bandwagon for a while now. I bet them to win the AFC East before the season even started. I can't help myself but to take them as a dog against the Bills on Monday Night Football. New England is a matchup nightmare for this Buffalo team that can't run the ball and just aren't a very physical team. The Pats have one of the best secondaries in the league and are one of the best running teams on the other side. If that wasn't going to be hard enough for the Bills to overcome, Mother Nature is going to make it even harder. The conditions for this game are going to be brutal with winds pushing 30 mph and a chance of rain. That's not ideal for a team that can't run the ball. Give me the Patriots +3! |
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12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Broncos/Chiefs SNF Vegas INSIDER (Broncos +10) As difficult as it is to bet against Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye, I just can't pass up on the value with Denver at +10. No question Kansas City has played better football during their 4-game win streak, but not all is quite right with this team. Outside of that game against the Raiders, where Mahomes and the Chiefs looked like the offense of years past, this KC offense has not really done a lot during the win streak. If this offense was truly back to its old form, they would have easily put up 30+ on that Cowboys defense at home. Now they face a really good Denver defense who not only will play that 2-high look that has been giving this Chiefs offense trouble, but also has some nice talent on that side of the ball. Also, while the Chiefs defense has been playing much better, Teddy Bridgewater and that Denver offense are going to be just fine in this game. Give me the Broncos +10! |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 72 h 16 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Football Team +2.5) I love the Football Team to go into Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, making this an easy play for me with Washington as the dog in this fight. While I think people are starting to take notice of what the Football Team has been doing of late, I don't think they have been impressive enough to where they are getting too much respect. It still feels like to me that it's time to buy stock on this team. On the flip side of this, I'm not buying into the Raiders big win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The offense had one good game against a bad Dallas defense. Big deal. Couple big things for me in that game is I don't think people factor in that it was a bit of a letdown spot for Dallas coming off that big game against Mahomes and the Chiefs the week before (it's all anyone was talking about leading up to that Sunday). The other is the Cowboys offense didn't have Cooper or Lamb and Dak still managed to carve up Las Vegas' secondary for 375 yards. That's now 3 straight games the Raiders defense has been absolutely shredded and while this Washington offense isn't as good as those 3 teams the Raiders just faced (Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys), I think they are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. I can't say the same about the Raiders offense. Washington's defense has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. They have held each of their last 5 opponents under 250 passing yards and are giving up just 67.6 rushing yards/game during this stretch. Give me the Football Team +2.5! |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 50 | 30-17 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 0 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 50) I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Bucs. I don't love to play OVERs in division games, but these two have a history of putting points on the board. They combined for 73 in Tampa's 48-25 win in Week 2 and have combined for at least 50 in each of the last 7 meetings. I think the reason we are getting some value with the OVER is what we have seen out of this Atlanta offense the past few weeks. They scored just 3 points in an ugly loss against Dallas, were shutout at home by the Patriots and scored just 21 last week against the Jags. I'm not saying they are going to breakout of their slump and put up 30+ in this game, but I do think it's a good matchup for the Falcons offense. This Tampa Bay defense is great against the run, but not so great against the pass. Matt Ryan and that Atlanta offense know how to exploit this Bucs defense and I'm confident they can put up 20+ points. Note that prior to playing Carson Wentz and the Colts last week, who they allowed to rack up nearly 400 yards and score 31 points despite having 4 turnovers, they had played a string of games against bad QBs. Their previous 6 games saw them go up against the likes of Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Trevor Siemian, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Jacoby Brissett. I just think it's a good time to sell high on this Tampa Bay defense, as well as buy low on the Bucs offense. While Tampa Bay still might not have Antonio Brown back, they did just get back tight end Rob Gronkowski and he had a huge game with 7 catches for 123 yards on a team-high 10 targets. You also got to look at the caliber of defense the Bucs will be up against. The Falcons have shown no ability to slow down a good offense and I believe that's a direct result of them not being able to get pressure. Atlanta's 15 sacks are the fewest in the league. If you can't get to Brady and make him uncomfortable, it's game over. I got the Bucs easily getting into the 30s in this game and could see them topping 40. Give me the OVER 50! |
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12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan -10.5 | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 54 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Big Ten Championship ATS SHOCKER (Michigan -10.5) I grew up in Iowa and a Hawkeyes fan, so I follow this team closely. As much as I would love for Iowa to stick it to Harbaugh and ruin Michigan's shot at making the 4-team playoff, I just don't see it happening. Iowa's only hope of keeping this game remotely close is by forcing turnovers and that's just not something you can bank on. Even with how good the Hawkeyes have been in that department. Michigan is also a team that takes great care of the ball. Wolverines haven't turned it over three times in any game this season and in 10 of their 12 games they had 1 or fewer turnovers. I also think that there's the perception that Michigan's offensive and defensive lines won't be near as dominant as they were against Ohio State against this Iowa team. Yes. Ferentz coached teams are always solid in the trenches, but the Hawks are not elite on either side of the ball. I just don't see how Iowa's offense is going to be able to do enough to keep this game close and if they get behind early, this could get ugly. Give me the Wolverines -10.5! |
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12-04-21 | Georgia -6 v. Alabama | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -111 | 50 h 57 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Alabama/Georgia MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -6) I can't help myself but to lay less than a touchdown with Georgia in the SEC title game. I got nothing but respect for Alabama and what they have been able to accomplish under Saban, but much like the LSU team that had Joe Burrow, this Georgia team is just a step above the rest of college football. I just think if it didn't say Alabama on the jersey, this line would be pushing double-digits and I'm not sure that would be enough. It's just a nightmare matchup for the Crimson Tide, who are not anything close to what we have seen in the past on the defensive side of the ball and they got no ability to run the ball. Bryce Young is great, but he's going to have to throw it 50+ times for Alabama to even have a shot and I got big concerns with the Crimson Tide's pass protection after how bad the struggled against the blitz against Auburn. No one seems to be talking enough about how Alabama was being shutout through 3 quarters in a game they had to win if they wanted any shot at getting back to the college football playoff. I just think the Georgia defense is going to be too much to overcome. Give me the Bulldogs -6! |
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12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 71 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Big 12 Championship VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma St -5.5) I'm going to lay the 5.5 with Oklahoma State as they face off against Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. The game will be played on the Dallas Cowboys home field at AT&T Stadium. I'm a little bit surprised we aren't seeing a heavier influx of money coming in on the Cowboys, but that's a good thing in my opinion. I would be a lot more hesitant to back Oklahoma State if this was a big public play. It feels like to me that there's just a lack of trust and belief in this Cowboys team and a lot of people aren't wanting to back them off that huge win over rival Oklahoma last week. I just don't think this is the spot to fade a team in that scenario. There's just no way Oklahoma State is looking past this opportunity. Not with what's happened to them in the past. To me that's really what this handicap comes down to. Whether or not we get the best the Cowboys have to offer, because their best is more than enough to beat this Baylor team by at least a touchdown. These two teams played in the regular season and while it looks like it was a competitive game with Oklahoma State only winning 24-14 at home, it wasn't nearly that close. The Cowboys had a 401 to 280 edge in total yards, 24-10 advantage in first downs and had the ball nearly 10 minutes more in time of possession. The only reason it was close is because OK State was -3 in the turnover department. Not that I wouldn't be fine with the same score on Saturday, I do think there's a strong likelihood that the Cowboys offense plays better than they did in the first meeting. I can't say the same for the Baylor offense. Not with how good this Oklahoma State defense is against the run and how depended the Bears offense is on being able to run the ball. Give me Oklahoma State -5! |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 58.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 44 h 47 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5) I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff. As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season. I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5! |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Cowboys/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 47.5) I'm not going to lie, I was hoping for a little better injury news for the Saints, especially on the offensive line at the two tackle positions. Either way, I still think this game will go over the total. The biggest thing you got to remember with the Saints offense is that they are going up against an overrated Cowboys defense. Yes, Dallas forces a lot of turnovers, but they also rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. I also think having Taysom Hill gives that offense some life and his mobility will be crucial with that Cowboys pass rush up against a depleted Saints o-line. I also think there's a chance we don't need New Orleans to do a lot. I really think this Cowboys offense could put up 40+. I don't think this Saints defense is anywhere close to as good as what they get credit for. Their secondary is awful and they are up against one of, if not the, best passing attacks in the league. I also think this Cowboys offense is dying to make a statement after the poor showings and injuries they have had to encounter the last few weeks. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Monday Night Football MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +1) I'm going to take the Seahawks to go on the road and find a way to get a win against the Football Team. I just think this is the buy low spot for Seattle. Everyone is not only writing this team off for this season, but I hear all kinds of people talking about how they should blow this whole thing up. I just think it's quite the overreaction and while Russell Wilson hasn't looked great since he came back, he has faced two of the best teams in the league in the Packers and Cardinals. Wilson also came back earlier than expected from that injury, so it shouldn't have been a shocker he didn't look like himself right away. This should be more in line when we expected him back and I think he has a big game. I also think this is a good time to sell high on Washington after back-to-back upset wins over the Bucs and and Panthers. I'm still not a believer in this Football Team's offense and because so much attention is going to how bad the Seattle offense has been, people are overlooking how good this team has been defensively over the last couple months. Give me the Seahawks +1! |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 74 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Browns/Ravens MAX UNIT Top Play (Browns +3.5) I love the Browns as a 3.5-point dog against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I just think this is the perfect buy low spot on Cleveland. All you hear about is how bad Baker Mayfield is playing and how this team isn't what we thought they were during their great start to the season. I'm not about to say Mayfield has played great, but he's not built to carry a team. This team is built on their running game and defense and injuries have really kept them from playing to their potential. I think they are close. They got back Chubb and now will finally have their 1-2 punch out of the backfield back with Kareem Hunt expected to return. They also are getting back tackle Jack Conklin to give that o-line a big boost. As for the Ravens, I think they aren't as good as what people think. Lamar Jackson is great, but they have decimated with injuries. The offensive line is awful and will somehow have to slow down that great Browns pass rush. They also aren't the same on defense as they have been in past years. There's a lot of weak spots for Baltimore on that side of the ball. I think Cleveland could really make a statement here. Give me the Browns +3.5! |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -3) I agreed with you that the Colts were the play last week as a 7.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just think winning the way they did has them getting way to much respect this week against Tom Brady and the Bucs. We both mentioned how we didn't think that Josh Allen and the Bills were as good as what people thought. That's the thing tough. The public still sees Buffalo as one of the best teams in the league. No one is even hesitating to lay almost a touchdown with them on the road in a short week against the Saints on Thanksgiving night. So while Indy may have went on the road and embarrassed Buffalo last week, I think they could be the ones on the receiving end of a lopsided loss this week. I think most have come to realize that the Colts want to run their offense through running back Jonathan Taylor. I just saw an article on ESPN on how Taylor leads all players, not just RBs, in Pro Bowl voting. Maybe I'm on underestimating him, but I think he's going to have a really tough time getting going against this Bucs front seven. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 78.4 ypg. More than 10 yards fewer than the next best team in the Ravens, who give up 88.6 ypg. I think with Taylor being limited, the Colts are going to have a really tough time moving the ball in this game. On the flip side of this, Brady and the Bucs put their ugly showing at Washington out of their bye in the rear view window, as they scored 30 points with over 400 yards in their blowout win against the Giants on Monday Night Football. Now I know the Giants aren't viewed as a very good team, but they had been playing really well defensively going into that game. Even after that showing, NY's secondary ranks 8th in the NFL, giving up just 6.9 yards/pass attempt. The Colts on the other hand are way back at 20th in that department, giving up 7.5 yards/attempt. I get they made Josh Allen look bad, but making Tom Brady look bad is a different story. Brady knows how to beat any defense you throw at him and I just don't trust this Indy secondary. Prior to facing Allen, the Colts previous 8 games had them go up against the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Mike White/Josh Johnson, Ryan Tannehill twice, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. You might be saying Jackson is good. I agree and he went 37 for 44 for 442 yards and 4 scores against Indy. I just think there's too much value with Tampa Bay at -3 to pass up and if it were to dip under 3 to 2.5, I'll be adding even more. I think the line here should at a minimum be Bucs -3.5 and probably should be 4 to 4.5. Give me Tampa Bay -3! |
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11-28-21 | Jets v. Texans -2.5 | 21-14 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texans -2.5) I just think there's some decent value with the Texans laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets. I'm not just taking Houston because they are coming off that big upset win over Tennessee. I really don't love betting on bad teams, but I do like betting against the worst of the worst and this Jets team is really bad. The Jets decided to start Joe Flacco last week to make sure there was no debating on if they should go back to Zach Wilson this week. There's definitely some upside with Wilson, but I think any of the other three guys they have used in recent weeks are a better option. I think people forget how bad Wilson was prior to his injury. I also wonder how the players will respond if he struggles to play well. You have to think there's some guys on that team that don't think he's the guy that gives them the best shot to win. The other big thing is I think this Jets defense might be one of the worst we have seen in some time. Don't be fooled by a bad Dolphins offense only scoring 24 on them last week. That's more of Miami than anything. With Tyrod Taylor calling the shots for Houston, I think the Texans will have their best showing since Week 1, when they put up 37 points and nearly 450 yards of offense against the Jags. Give me the Texans -2.5! |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -4 | 33-37 | Push | 0 | 70 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) Oklahoma/Oklahoma St Bedlam MASSACRE (Oklahoma St -4) I usually try to avoid taking a spread that I think is so obvious that something has to be wrong. I just can't help myself with Oklahoma State only being asked to lay 4 at home to a Oklahoma team that is on it's heels. The big reason for me not letting the line scare me away, is the fact that this is an Oklahoma State team that just hasn't gotten the respect or the oodsmakers this year. For them to be 10-1 and playing as well as they have, you think this team is happy about being ranked No. 7 in the country. I'm sure in their mind they feel like they should be No. 4 and at least in the Top 5. Not very often you find a team playing this well that continues to have to play with a chip on their shoulder. As for the books, Oklahoma State has covered 9 in a row and most of them haven't ended even close to the number. Either the books aren't buying what they are seeing or the money just hasn't come in on Oklahoma State enough for them to inflate the lines. Regardless, it has them undervalued here. Say what you want about the offense. It's nothing that wows you. They don't really do anything great. What they do is take care of the ball (3 turnovers in their last 6 games). They also are a solid running team. It's been more than enough with the way they are playing defensively. If a team only gives up 23 points in a game, most see that as a really good game. Oklahoma State has allowed 23 points in their last 4 games combined. Oklahoma's offense has looked lost their last two games and it feels like they don't know who should be playing quarterback. I'm willing to bet it doesn't just magically click for them against this defense. If the defense can force some turnovers and the offense can avoid settling for field goals early, I think this could get out of hand. Give me Oklahoma State -4! |
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11-27-21 | West Virginia -15 v. Kansas | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 5 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (W Virginia -15) I think we are getting a gift here with West Virginia only being asked to lay 15 against Kansas. To me. This is a sell high spot on the Jayhawks. In Kansas' last two games they have went on the road and beat Texas 57-56 as a 31-point dog and barely lose 28-31 at TCU this past week as 21-point favorites. If you just think about the fact that W Virginia went on the road and beat TCU 29-17, this line should be well into the 20's. It's one thing if a team has a couple of games like this after something has drastically changed (coaching change, injured player coming back, new starting QB, etc.). I just don't think there's anything different from this Kansas team and the one we saw go 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their previous 9 games. They beat Texas in the worst possible spot for the Longhorns, who were delivered the knockout blow on their season with a loss to ISU the week before. They also got TCU in a big letdown spot, as the Horned Frogs were coming off that emotional upset win against rival Baylor in the first game after their coach had been fired. I know West Virginia is just 5-6, but they could easily be sitting here at 7-4. They had multiple close losses early in the year that just didn't go their way in the 4th quarter. Big thing here is they need this win to get bowl eligible. What motivation does Kansas have? It's senior day? I guess. I just think senior day can get the crowd more involved, which the players feed off of. It's not going to be any more electric than a normal home game for the Jayhawks. Give me West Virginia -15! |
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11-27-21 | Wisconsin -7 v. Minnesota | 13-23 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 46 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Smart Money ATS CASH COW (Wisconsin -7) I just can't help myself but to lay the 7 with the Badgers in this game. If this game plays out like I see it, the Badgers will cover this game easy. This Wisconsin team might be the best team that hasn't been in the playoff talk. That's only because the Badgers were all but eliminated from that conversation when they started 1-3. I just think ever since that start this team has been undervalued. They have won 7 straight and are 5-2 ATS. They aren't just squeaking by the numbers in those covers, the books haven't been close in a lot of their games. They won by 24 as a 12.5-point favorite at Illinois, by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite at Purdue and by 20 as a 3-point home favorite against Iowa. I just think this is a team on a mission and one that is dying for the chance to play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Minnesota is all that is in their way. I expect the best version of the Badgers on Saturday. They did fail to cover as 10-point favorites at home against Nebraska last week, but that line was a bit inflated. The Cornhuskers are a much better team than their record would suggest. I think it's a Nebraska team that is certainly better than this Minnesota team. This is also a matchup nightmare for the Gophers with how good Wisconsin is against the run. Sunstaining drives is going to be a challenge and scoring will not be easy. I'm not saying they won't score a lot, but I don't think Wisconsin needs to put up 30+ for us to cover this easy. Give me the Badgers -7! |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State +7 v. Oregon | 29-38 | Loss | -106 | 65 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Oregon St +7) I'll gladly take the 7-points with Oregon State on the road in the Civil War against rival Oregon. I know that with a win the Ducks can secure the Pac-12 North title, but I'm not buying it's a real motivator. Prior to last week's 38-7 loss at Utah, Oregon was in a position that if they won out, they would have made the 4-team playoff. As great as it is to win a conference title, it's nothing compared to getting to that 4-team playoff and having a shot to win it all. I just don't think Oregon is going to be able to pick themselves up off the mat. On the flip side of this, Oregon State is a team that has made some big strides this year and they aren't going to care in the slightest about the situation that the Ducks find themselves in. They are going to be extremely motivated to not just keep it close, but to win the game outright. Something I strongly believe they can and will do on Saturday. Give me the Beavers +7! |
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11-27-21 | Penn State -1 v. Michigan State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 24 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Penn State -1) The last week of the regular-season is all about motivation and it's 100% why you are seeing Penn State as a 1-point road favorite against the Spartans. The situation that we find Michigan State in this week is one of my favorite angles this time of year. I want to fade teams who just had all their hopes and dreams crushed the week before. It's pretty safe to say that the Spartans fall into that category. Going into last week's game against Ohio State, Michigan State was in the running to not just win the Big Ten East, a win in that game and they would be in line to make the college football playoff. They go from everything you could ever dream of being on the line to having absolutely nothing but pride to play for in a pretty meaningless game against Penn State. There's the exception to this every now and then, but you can't pick and choose who you think that will be. You just fade the team in this spot. Give me Penn State -1! |
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11-26-21 | Missouri v. Arkansas -14.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 42 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NCAAF) No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Arkansas -14.5) I got no problem laying the 14.5-points with the Razorbacks at home against the Tigers on Friday. I think a lot of people might be hesitant to lay more than two touchdowns with Arkansas in this spot, as they will be concerned of a letdown for the Razorbacks after a hard fought loss to Alabama. I'm not saying that won't be the case, but I feel pretty confident in Arkansas not letting that loss to the Crimson Tide carry over to this game. Some senior days mean more than others and I think it's really big for this Razorbacks' senior class. These are the guys that really stuck with the program and saw it get back to respectability this year. I also think there's motivation here for Arkansas to snap a 5-game losing streak to Missouri and finish the season 3-0 in their 3 trophy games. If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Razorbacks, they should have no problem winning this game by 20+ points. Don't be fooled by Missouri's win over a Florida team that quit on their head coach last week. This is a bad Tigers football team and one that figures to have a horrible time keeping Arkansas out of the end zone. Missouri is giving up 36.3, 446.9 ypg and 6.5 yards/play in SEC games this year. They are especially bad against the run, giving up 235 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of this Razorbacks' offense, which is averaging 222 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground. On the flip side of this, Arkansas has a pretty good run defense and with how Missouri's passing game has struggled in the 2nd half of the season, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Razorbacks -14.5! |
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11-26-21 | UTEP +13.5 v. UAB | 25-42 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) Black Friday ATS NO-BRAINER (UTEP +13.5) I not only think UTEP will cover the 13.5 in Friday's game at UAB, I think the Miners are a live dog in this one. This is an absolutely a horrible spot for UAB. The Blazers come off a crushing 31-34 loss on the road to undefeated UTSA. UAB gave up a 1-yard TD pass with 3 seconds on the clock to lose that game. It was a crazy play, as there was a bad snap and the pass was tipped before falling into the arms of Oscar Cardenas. Had UAB won that game, they would have pulled even with UTSA in the West Division of C-USA and simply would have needed to beat UTEP to play in the conference title game. With the loss they are no longer able to catch the Roadrunners for the division crown. Even with it being senior day for the Blazers, I think it's asking a lot for them to show up with the right mindset to beat a quality team like UTEP. It would be one thing if this was an up and coming team, but this will mark the first time in 4 years that UAB will not be involved in the C-USA title game. On the flip side, I know you could argue that UTEP is in the same boat with nothing really to play for, but I don't see it that way. The Miners are in the midst of one of their best seasons in quite some time. They are 7-4 with a 4-3 record in conference play. They have a shot to win 8 games for the first time since 2005 and their first winning record in C-USA play since 2014. This is a team that had gone just 5-39 over their previous 4 seasons. They had a win total for the season of just 3 and conference only win total of 1. Needless to say I think UTEP is going to have no problem getting up for this game. They don't care about the situation for UAB. All they see is a chance to end the regular-season with a huge road win against a team that has really been the class of this conference the last few years. Give me the Miners +13.5! |
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11-26-21 | Iowa v. Nebraska -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 58 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -1) There's lines that stink and then there's this one. The betting public is going to think the bookmakers have lost their mind, making a 3-8 Nebraska team a favorite against an Iowa team that is 9-2 and ranked No. 16 in the country. Especially with the news that the Cornhuskers will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez. Anytime a line looks to be off this much, I instantly look to fade the obvious side, but I was going to be on Nebraska regardless in this one. No question this has not been the season that the Cornhuskers expected, but this has a team that has taken some really gut wrenching blows and continued to come out and play their hearts out. Given how much these two teams hate each other and the fact that Iowa has won 6 straight (last 3 decided by 6 or less), I see Nebraska treating this like it's their bowl game. I also love the matchup even without Martinez. This Iowa offense is one of the worst in the FBS and while it hasn't translated into a lot of wins, this Nebraska defense has played extremely well this year. I think they can do enough offensively with Logan Smothers, who is a talented freshman, to get the win at home. Give me Nebraska -1! |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bills/Saints Prime Time MONEYMAKER (UNDER 45.5) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 45.5 in Thanksgiving night cap between the Bills and Saints. I just don't see a lot of offense for either team in this game. Josh Allen and the Bills are just not clicking offensively right now. Outside of that big game against the Jets, who is atrocious defensively, they haven't been playing up to their potential for weeks. Most point to the game against the Jags as the start, but they weren't great in their win against the Dolphins the week before and last week couldn't do anything against a pretty suspect Colts secondary. Now they go on the road against a good Saints defense that is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting run all over by the Eagles last week. I just don't see a repeat of that for New Orleans and it's pretty simple. Buffalo can't run the ball. On the flip side, things aren't looking much better for the Saints offense. Trevor Siemian is not the answer at quarterback and he's being asked to do too much with Alvin Kamara sidelined. Add in an offensive line that figures to be down 3 starters and it's hard to see them doing much against a similarly pissed off Bills defense. Give me the UNDER 45.5! |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Ole Miss/Miss St Egg Bowl MASSACRE (Mississippi St -2) Most are going to look at this line an think the wrong team is favored and will just blindly back Ole Miss. They will completely overlook that all the action is coming in on the Rebels and yet this line is moving in favor of Mississippi State. It only makes me like the Bulldogs more, as I not only think they cover the short number, but put it on their in-state rivals in the Egg Bowl. While it's hard to say that Ole Miss isn't playing well when they have gone 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last 7 games, but I don't think it's the same Rebels team that we saw to start the year, especially not on the offensive side of the ball. In their last 4 games, Ole Miss is only averaging 26.8 ppg. That's after they put up 31 or more in 6 of their first 7 games, eclipsing 40 points in 4 of those games. Now that offense has to face a pretty good Bulldogs defense that is only giving up 25.0 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 5.4 yards/play. Everyone thinks Ole Miss is this pass happy offense, but they really want to run the ball and that's going to be a challenge against a Miss St defense that only gives up 3.3 yards/carry. I know the Rebels defense has been playing well of late, but they haven't exactly faced the toughest offenses during this stretch. I think they could revert back to their old ways here and really struggle to get off the field. Give me Mississippi State -2! |
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11-25-21 | Bears v. Lions OVER 41 | 16-14 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bears/Lions Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 41) I know there's not a lot to get excited about with this game and I think given the quarterback situation for these two teams, as well as their recent performances, most will have a hard time seeing a lot of offense in this game. I'm not saying it's going to be a shootout by any means, but I do think at 41 the total here is too low, especially with both teams playing on no rest. Not to mention I think we are buying at the all-time low with both of these offenses right now. Chicago will have to go with Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. I get it. Dalton isn't sexy and doesn't offer much on the ground, but he gives that offense a better chance of succeeding right now. Teams just don't have to respect Fields throwing the ball. Even if it's just 3-yard dump offs, it makes the Lions play a little more honest. The other big key here is that I think we are going to see Jared Goff under center for the Lions. While he's nothing to get excited about, he's better than Boyle and he threw for 299 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with Chicago. I also think there's a chance here we could see a lackluster showing from the Bears defense, as it really feels like this team has given up on Naggy and this season. Give me the OVER 41! |
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11-23-21 | Buffalo v. Ball State -6.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACtion NO-BRAINER (Ball St -6.5) I'll take my chances with the Cardinals winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Bulls. Not only do I think Ball State is the better team, but they should be the much more motivated team. The Cardinals come in at 5-6 and need to win this game to become bowl eligible. It's also going to be senior night for Ball State. Buffalo's hopes of making a bowl game came to an end in last week's crushing 27-33 OT loss at home at Northern Illinois. Bulls look like they were on their way to potentially pulling off the upset, but quarterback Matt Myers fumbled the ball away on third and goal from the 1-yard line in the Bulls first possession of OT and the defense gave up a 25-yard run on the Huskies first crack at OT to put it away. I just think it's going to be tough for Buffalo to get themselves up for this one after such an emotional setback last week. Let's also not overlook that while Ball State is just 3-4 in the MAC, their 4 losses have come against 4 of the better teams in the MAC in Toledo, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Give me the Cardinals -6.5! |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Giants/Bucs MNF Vegas INSIDER (Giants +11.5) I'll take my chances with the Giants catching double-digits on the road against Tampa Bay. It just feels like the books are giving Tom Brady and the Bucs the same treatment this year that they gave Mahomes and the Chiefs last year after they won the Super Bowl. They know the public is going to back them no matter what and are inflating the lines so much that they you got to take the other side. It would be one thing to lay this big number with Tampa Bay if they were at full strength, but they are still without one of their top weapons offensively in Antonio Brown and even if Gronk comes back, he's been out so long that he's unlikely to have a big role if he does play. I also think the loss of defensive tackle Vita Vea isn't getting near the attention it should. He's the reason that the Bucs have been so good against the run and I think his absence has a negative ripple effect on the rest of the defense. The Giants also got a lot of injuries they are dealing with, but they are going to be the much more rested team coming off of their bye. I also think this New York defense is very underrated. They have given up 20 or fewer in each of their last 3 games and have been forcing a ton of turnovers (10 takeaways in their last 5 games). Give me the Giants +11.5! |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5) I love the Chiefs as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Cowboys, as this is just too good a price to pass up on KC at home, especially after what we saw last week with their offense finally getting back on track in a 41-14 blowout win against the Raiders. I just think there's a lot of people that credit the Chiefs offense getting back on track as a result of playing the Raiders, who they have seen really fall apart over the last few weeks. I think that's a big mistake. I believe it was exactly what Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team needed and we are going to see them carry it over against an awful Cowboys defense that isn't nearly as good as the numbers show. The other big thing that gets overlooked with Kansas City is their defense and the improvements they have made since the beginning of the season. They have got some guys back from injury like corner Ward and linebacker Gay. They have replaced Sorenson with Thornhill at safety, moved Chris Jones back inside and added a good pass rusher in Melvin Ingram. In the Chiefs last 5 games they are giving up just 88.2 rushing yards/game and 220.8 ypg. Say what you want about who they have played, those numbers would both rank in the Top 10 in the league for the season. I also don't think there's near enough being made about Amari Cooper not being able to play for Dallas. Not having to worry about him is going to allow KC's defense to focus that much more on stopping CeeDee Lamb and if they can keep him from having a big game, I think they keep this Cowboys offense in check. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! |
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | 32-13 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Raiders +1) I think we are getting a great price on the Raiders at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Not a big surprise, as the public likes this Cincinnati team with Joe Burrow and they will like that the Bengals are coming off a bye. They also want nothing to do with Las Vegas right now, especially after watching them get beat pretty bad last week at home against the Chiefs. I know the final score looks bad in that game against KC, but that's a different game if DeSean Jackson doesn't fumble on that long pass. He scores there and it's a 3-point game. Instead it was like the life was sucked out of this team. I also think people are sleeping on the improvements that the Chiefs have made defensively over the last month with some of the guys they have added and got back from injury. I think this Raiders defense and their ability to get pressure on the quarterback is something that is getting overlooked, as they should have a field day against a horrible Bengals' offensive line. I also think this Cincinnati defense is one that LV can have some success against. Give me the Raiders +1! |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Dolphins -3) I'll be the first to admit that there wasn't a scenario or opponent that would have had me laying points with the Dolphins on the road, but there's just no way I'm passing up Miami as a mere 3-point road favorite against this Jets team. Not only do I think Miami has improved quite a bit over the last month of the season, I feel that the Jets are playing with fire with the decision of the coaching staff to start a washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback over the likes of Mike White. Now I know White played poorly last week against the Bills, but that was somewhat to be expected given he was up against arguably the league's best secondary. The thing is, they aren't benching him because of that or because he's injured. They are 100% starting Flacco to protect their 1st round investment of Zach Wilson. They want to make sure that when Wilson is healthy and ready to play, they can go back to him as the starter without any controversy. While it might prove to be the wise decision long-term, I don't think the decision can sit well with the players in the locker room. They are basically saying they would rather lose than play the best players that give them a chance to win. I really think as bad as the Jets have looked of late, this could very well go down as their worst performance of the year. Not only are they limiting themselves offensively, but they have without a doubt in my mind the worst defense in the league. I think Miami showed us in last week's big upset win over the Ravens that they have not quit on this season. I know it's a longshot, but even at 3-7 this team has to feel like they can get back in the playoff race in the AFC. With home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets after this road game at New York, they got a realistic shot to be sitting at 7-7 with 3 to play. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SHOCKER (Bears +6.5) I really like the value we are getting with the Bears catching 6.5-points at home against the Ravens. I really don't think the Ravens should be more than a field goal favorite in this game, but it's been inflated because of all the public love for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, as well as the fact that Chicago has lost 4 straight. I just don't think this Ravens team is as good as what their record shows or what people think. The defense is no where close to what it's been in the past, they don't have the talent at running back that they have had in the past. The offense is also not producing anywhere close to expectations on the road, as they are scoring just 19.8 ppg away from home on the season. As for the Bears, I think this is a team that is on the rise. It took some time, but Justin Fields finally looks comfortable and we really saw him take a big step forward in the second half of that game against the Steelers in Week 9. Ravens have failed to cover each of their last 6 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing on average in this spot by 5.2 ppg. Give me the Bears +6.5! |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 47.5) I love the UNDER 47.5 in Sunday's big NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. I know Green Bay has an all-time great at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers, but their offense has been far from elite in 2021. The Packers are 19th in scoring at just 21.6 ppg and 20th in total offense at just 339.4 yards/game. Let's also not forget they are down their top back in Aaron Jones, have lost their top tight end in Robert Tonyan, could be without wideout Allen Lazard and have some injuries up front on the offensive line. The thing with Green Bay is they haven't needed their offense to be great to win games because their defense has been so good. They are making good quarterbacks look average at best. Just look at what they have done in their last 3 games against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. It will be no different here against Kirk Cousins and what I think is a very overrated Vikings offense. ' Green bay hasn't had a game see more than 47 points since the calendar turned to October (7 straight games). Give me the UNDER 47.5! |
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11-20-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech OVER 56 | 23-0 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total SHOCKER (Over 56) I think we are getting some great value with the OVER 56 in Saturday night's big Big 12 matchup between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. I think a lot of people are hesitant to play the OVER with a team like the Cowboys who are so good defensively and not exactly an offensive juggernaut. The key here is that his Red Raiders defense is one they can exploit, much like they did last week in their 63-point outburst against a bad TCU defense. Texas Tech has already given up 50+ points in 3 Big 12 games, including 70 to Texas earlier in the year. They let an Oklahoma offense that looked lost against Baylor score 52 and they gave up 52 to TCU with the Horned Frogs throwing for just 104 yards on 10 pass attempts. I not only think the Cowboys are going to score, but I also think Texas Tech is good enough offensively that they at least get into the 20s and maybe even the 30s. In the last 8 meetings, which goes all the way back to 2013, Oklahoma State has not held the Red Raiders to fewer than 34 points and in 7 of those 8 meetings the two teams combined for at least 75 points. Give me the OVER 56! |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 78 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Utah -3) This line is going to look off to a lot of people, as you have the No. 3 ranked Ducks as a 3-point dog against the No. 23 ranked Utes. Most just assume that because Oregon is ranked so much higher in the standings, they should be the ones laying points in this game. It just goes to show you why you can't invest too much into the rankings. The fact that the books know the money is going to come in on Oregon and still went ahead and made the Utes the favorites, tells you how they think this game is going to play out. To me, they are straight up telling you they think the Utes are going to win this game. I couldn't agree more. In fact, I've been waiting to play Utah in this spot for several weeks now. Ever since Charlie Brewer decided to leave the team and open the door for Cameron Rising to be the starter, the Utes have looked like a completely different team. Utah has gone 6-1 since Rising took over and he's been outstanding. He's completing 63.5% of his attempts, averaging just under 225 passing yards/game and has a 14-2 TD-INT ratio. He's also added another element to their offense with his mobility, as he's carried it 45 times for 321 yards and 4 scores. That's an average of 7.1 yards/carry. He's also been sacked 3 times in 233 pass attempts, where Brewer was sacked 6 times in just 79 attempts. Not only can Utah throw the ball, they are averaging 214 ypg and 5.9 yards/carry on the ground. They come in having scored 34 or more points in 6 straight games. I feel really good about this offense being able to move the ball on this Oregon defense. The only real impressive win for Oregon this year came back in September when they stuned Ohio State on the road. A great win, but the Buckeyes aren't nearly as good defensively as they have been in years past. I really think it's going to be a challenge for this Ducks offense against this stingy front 7 of Utah. The Utes have had some trouble against the pass, but are really good against the run. They give up just 139 ypg and 3.9 yards/carry. It will be strength vs strength, as Oregon's offense is really built to run the ball. The Ducks are averaging 41 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts. I really think the Utes defense is going to feed off the energy of the home crowd, as Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the more difficult places to play and you can bank on it being electric with this being the prime time night game on ABC set to kickoff at 7:30 EST. Give me the Utes -3! |
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11-20-21 | Virginia Tech +8 v. Miami-FL | Top | 26-38 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 26 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - ACC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Va Tech +8) I really like the Hokies as a 8-point road dog against the Hurricanes. I'm always going to look to back a team in the first game after they fired their head coach. We have won in this spot multiple times already with the likes of USC and a couple weeks ago with TCU in that shocking win over Baylor. I really think we are going to see a spirited effort here from Virginia Tech after they just let Justin Fuente go. On the flip side of this, I hate this spot for Miami. The Hurricanes come into this game off a crushing 28-31 loss at rival Florida State. After falling behind 17-0, Miami rallied and had a 28-20 lead with less 5 minutes to play and were up 28-23 before giving up a TD in the final seconds to lose 28-31. Now the loss does leave Miami at 5-5 and still 1 win shy of bowl eligibility, but getting to 6-6 is just not as big a deal for a program like the Hurricanes. I do think it means a little more to Va Tech, who is also 5-5. I know other names are being thrown around, but you got to believe interim head coach J.P. Price wants to show what he can do and get this team to a bowl. Either way I don't think they need that motivational edge given they are going to already being playing hard after Fuente was fired. Give me the Hokies +8! |
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11-20-21 | Auburn v. South Carolina +8 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - SEC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (S Carolina +8) I love the Gamecocks catching over a touchdown at home against Auburn this week. This point of the season is all about motivation and figuring out which teams are going to show up. I don't know if there's an easier target to fade in Week 12 than the Tigers. Auburn comes into this game off a demoralizing 34-43 loss at home to Mississippi State. A game they led 28-3 before giving up 40 unanswered points to the Bulldogs. That game on it's own would be tough to come back from, but it also knocked he Tigers out of the SEC West race. Had they won that game and then beat South Carolina, they would of went into their finale against rival Alabama with a spot in the SEC title game on the line. Key here is that while the game against the Crimson Tide might not have the same meaning it could have had they beat the Bulldogs, that's still going to be a game that Auburn gets up for, knowing that if they win they will all but eliminate Alabama from a spot in the 4-team playoff. If all that wasn't enough, starting quarterback Bo Nix has been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury and their top wide out Kobe Hudson has been downgraded to doubtful. There's not a lot of numbers to dive into with South Carolina and while they will win, but we saw this team not only cover but win outright in a similar spot a couple weeks ago in their 40-17 win at home against Florida. Also, at 5-5, the Gamecocks still need a win to become bowl eligible and I don't think they want to leave that up in the air with Clemson on deck. Give me South Carolina +8! |
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11-20-21 | Syracuse +11.5 v. NC State | 17-41 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Syracuse +11.5) I think we are getting some big time value with the Orange as a double-digit road dog against NC State this week. Not only are we buying low on Syracuse after their ugly 41-3 loss at Louisville last week, but we are also selling high on NC State after their near upset win on the road against Wake Forest. The even bigger factor for me is the horrible spot that the Wolfpack fall in after that crushing loss to the Demon Deacons. That game against WF was MASSIVE. It was basically to decide which of those teams would be in the driver seat to win Atlantic and play in the ACC title game. Had NC State won, both them and Wake would have been tied at 5-1 in the standings with the Wolfpack holding the tie-breaker. Asking this team to come out and play up to their true potential in a pretty meaningless game against Syracuse is asking a lot, especially to win by double-digits against what figures to be a very motivated Orange team. Not only does Syracuse want to bounce back from that ugly loss to Louisville, they still need 1 more win to become bowl eligible and have an equally tough game next week against Pitt. Give me Syracuse +11.5! |
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11-20-21 | SMU v. Cincinnati UNDER 65.5 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 65.5) I have to take a shot on the UNDER 65.5 in Saturday's big AAC showdown between SMU and Cincinnati. I know the Mustangs are statistically one of the best offenses in the country, as they come in averaging 41.6 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.7 yards/play, but a lot of that is who they have played. I don't see a defense on their schedule that they have played that is even remotely as good as what they will see in this game against Cincinnati. Keep in mind last year SMU averaged 38.6 ppg and only managed to score 13 against the Bearcats in a blowout loss at home. I also know Cincinnati hasn't exactly looked dominant defensively in their last few games, but this is still a team that has not given up 30 in any game this year and only twice given up more than 21. It also feels like to me that the Bearcats are one of those teams that play their best against the better teams. We saw that in their game at Notre Dame, where they held the Irish to just 13 points. So even if Cincinnati's offense puts up 40+ points, which I don't think they will, there's still a great chance this game will stay under the total. I think the number here should be closer to 58. Give me the UNDER 65.5! |
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11-20-21 | Purdue v. Northwestern +11 | 32-14 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Northwestern +11) I was a little hesitant to back Northwestern as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this game and how these two teams matchup, I have to roll the dice with the Wildcats on Saturday. While the game won't technically be a home game for Northwestern, it is being played in their backyard at Wrigley Field and I think the game being there will give this 3-7 Wildcats team something to get up for. In fact, I think if there's a team that struggles to show up, it will be the Boilermakers. Purdue has been through quite the Big Ten gauntlet the last 5 weeks. During this stretch they have played @ Iowa, home vs Wisconsin, @ Nebraska, home vs Michigan State and then last week's big showdown at Ohio State. They are now 4-3 in the Big Ten and while they are just a game back of Wisconsin for the West title, they lost the head-to-head with the Badgers and would need them to lose their last two games (home vs Nebraska & @ Minnesota) to overtake them. They also would need Iowa to lose 1 of their last 2 games. I just think it's going to be really tough for Purdue to get up for this game. I also think it's a bad matchup for their offense. The weakness of Northwestern's defense is stopping the run and Purdue is one of the worst in the country at running. Wildcats are only giving up 193 passing yards/game. Give me Northwestern +11! |
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11-20-21 | Florida State v. Boston College -1.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -1.5) We cashed with Boston College as a 2-point road dog at Georgia Tech last week, despite a really sloppy start to the game by the Eagles. The Yellow Jackets led that game early 21-7 before a 2nd quarter BC explosion had them up 28-21. They would carry that over to the 2nd half and win the game 40-21. They ended up outgaining Georgia Tech 505 to 343. One of my biggest things in taking the Eagles in that game was I thought they weren't getting the respect they deserved since starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec returned from injury. He didn't put up great numbers in their 17-3 win over Va Tech in his first start back, but went 13 of 20 for 310 yards and 2 scores vs Georgia Tech. I think he's going to have another big game here against a Florida State defense that has given up over 300 yards passing in each of their last 2 games. I also think this is a big letdown/lookahead spot for the Seminoles after their crazy come from behind win over rival Miami last week and rival Florida on deck next Saturday. I know BC is already bowl eligible and FSU needs these last two games to get to 6-6, I just don't think it's as big a deal for a program like Florida State to play in a crappy bowl and it's always a big deal for these middle of the pack teams to play the Seminoles. BC also has to be itching for a shot at FSU after losing two close games to them the last two years. Give me the Eagles -1.5! |
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11-20-21 | Rutgers +17.5 v. Penn State | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Big Ten Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rutgers +17.5) I love the value we are getting with Rutgers as a 17.5-point road dog against Penn State on Saturday. No one is going to overreact to the Scarlet Knights blowing out a fading Indiana team, while I think Penn State gained some respect by how well they played against Michigan, as a lot of people thought the Wolverines were going to win that game going away. I also think there's the struggles that Rutgers has had offensively and their 3 home losses to Ohio State (13-52), Michigan State (13-31) and Wisconsin (3-52) that are going to have some convincing themselves that laying the points is the right play. If this game was played a month ago and the Nittany Lions were still in it in the Big Ten East, I would probably agree. That's just not the case. At 3-4 in Big Ten play, there's no shot at making the Big Ten title game and they are already bowl eligible at 6-4. You also got the emotional letdown of losing a game to a Top 10 team on their home field after they rallied to take a late lead and another big game on deck against a Michigan State team that is currently in the Top 10 and potentially in the Top 5 if they somehow beat Ohio State. I just think it's a really tough spot to ask Penn State to win by 20+ points. In fact, if Rutgers can get their offense going or maybe force a couple turnovers, they could very well win this game outright. Scarlet Knights will definitely be motivated to get that 6th win and become bowl eligible. Give me Rutgers +17.5! |
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11-19-21 | Memphis +9.5 v. Houston | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Friday Night Lights ATS MASSACRE (Memphis +9.5) I'm going to roll the dice with Memphis as a 9.5-point home dog against the No. 24 ranked Cougars on Friday night. This line to me just feels like it's a few too many and I love that we are seeing the line go down with the public all over Houston. It's not been the year the Tigers had hoped for and they are coming off a crushing 29-30 OT loss at home to ECU, but I feel pretty good about the mindset of this Memphis team coming into this big game against Houston. The Tigers have some head scratching losses to some mediocre teams, but they also have outright wins over the likes of Mississippi State and SMU. I expect them to put their best foot forward against a ranked Cougars team. There's also motivation for Memphis to get a win here to become bowl eligible. Houston has won 9 in a row since losing their opener to Texas Tech 21-38, but there's a reason they are 9-1 and ranked just No. 24 in the country. They have played a cupcake schedule, which I believe has really aided in their overall numbers. The other big thing here for me, is that this game doesn't really mean much. The Cougars end the year next week with a non-conference game against UConn. They have already locked up a spot in the AAC title game with their 7-0 start to AAC play. Give me the Tigers +9.5! |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Patriots/Falcons TNF NO-BRAINER (Patriots -6.5) I know everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this game, but there's no way I'm betting against Bill Belichick and this New England team in this spot. I was high on this Pats team coming into the year and bet them at 3/1 to win the AFC East when everyone was taking the Bills. They got off to a slow start, but as Belichick teams do, they have gotten better and better as the season rolls on. New England has won and covered each of their last 4 games, with 3 of those 4 wins coming in blowout fashion. I just don't see how the Falcons can make a game of this. Everyone was buying into Atlanta after their 3-1 SU and ATS run leading into the Cowboys game, but it was more of them just taking advantage of a soft schedule. I still think this is a below average team and they showed that last week in their 43-3 loss at Dallas. The biggest thing here for me is Belichick's ability to gameplan week to week and take away what a team does best. Well this Atlanta team can't run the ball and you can bet your last dollar that Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Kyle Pitts out of the game. I also think it's huge that Atlanta will likely be without their swiss army knife in Cordarrelle Patterson. Outside of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley (who left the team), no other player for the Falcons has more than 200 yards receiving. Unless the Pats offense has a complete no show, I just don't see them not winning here by less than a touchdown. Give me New England -6.5! |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo OVER 60 | 33-27 | Push | 0 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Wednesday Night MAC SLAUGHTER (OVER 60) This total opened at 65.5 and has been bet down to a mere 60. The reason for that is the forecast doesn't look great. There's expected to be 15-20 mph and a 34% chance of rain. I just think it's created some great value on the OVER. I just think it's been a bit overblown. There's a 66% chance it doesn't rain and with how bad these two teams are defensively, especially against the run, I don't think the wind will play as big a role as some might think. Northern Illinois comes in averaging 220 rushing yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry. They will be up against a Buffalo defense that gives up 197 ypg and 4.8 ypc. The Bulls are averaging 194 ypg and 4.3 ypc on the ground and will be facing a Huskies defense that is giving up 209 ypg and 5.9 ypc. As a whole both teams are giving up over 30 ppg and 450 ypg in conference play. Give me the OVER 60! |
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11-16-21 | Toledo v. Ohio OVER 54 | 35-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 54) I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER 54 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Toledo. Both of these teams can put up points. Toledo is scoring 32.8 ppg in MAC play and Ohio is scoring 30.5 ppg. I just don't see either defense making enough stops here to keep this under 60 points. The UNDER has cashed quite a bit for both teams, but if you look closely, the games have just barely went under the number. You also got to look at how high scoring these MAC games have been in these early weekday matchups. This one will be no different. Give me the oVER 54! |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Rams/49ers MAX UNIT MNF Top Play (Under 50.5) I want nothing to do with the spread in this game. Rams look like the obvious choice at -3.5, but the obvious play in a prime time game never seems to go like you expect. I would much rather have a bet on the UNDER 50.5 for this division matchup. I just don't think this 49ers offense is very good. They have scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 and are up against a stingy Rams defense that has been really good against the run of laste. In LA's last 5 games they are giving up just 80.4 ypg on the ground. For San Francisco's offense to play well, they need to be able to run the ball to get to their play action in the passing game. On the flip side, I do think the 49ers have a solid defense. I know they have given up some points in a couple games here of late, but they allow the same 5.5 yards/play that the Rams do and you could argue that SF has played the harder schedule. I also think the loss of Robert Woods is huge, as it figures to take some time for Odell Beckham Jr to learn the Rams offense. The 49ers also have a great understanding of what McVay and that offense wants to do. UNDER is 21-7 in the Rams last 28 as a favorite and 11-4 in their last 15 off an ATS loss. UNDER is also 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 as an underdog. Give me the UNDER 50.5! |
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11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -2.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -104 | 73 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Broncos -2.5) I will gladly lay the 2.5 at home with the Broncos against the Eagles. I just don't understand why this Philly team keeps getting so much respect. They closed as a pick'em at home against the Chargers and were only a 1-point dog at LV. Their only 3 wins on the sason are at Atlanta in Week 1 when the Falcons were a complete mess, at Carolina and at Detroit. I know they are a good running team, but they have a liability at quarterback in Jalen Hurts. In the Eagles last 5 games they are averaging a mere 157.4 passing yards/game. I just don't see them going on the road in a very tough place to play at Denver and just running the ball effectively enough to win this game. The Broncos come into this game off a shocking 30-16 win at Dallas as a 10-point dog. I don't always love backing teams off a big win like this, but that's usually because they end up being overvalued and laying more than they should be. I don't think that's the case here. Everyone wants to just say the Cowboys didn't play well and Dak wasn't ready to come back. No one wants to give this team the respect they deserve. I don't think there's any question that Teddy Bridgewater is the best QB on the field in this game and I think he's going to have a huge game against an awful Eagles secondary. I also wouldn't sleep on this Denver ground game. They got two talented back in rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. The two had 191 yards on 38 carries against Dallas. I just don't think the Eagles are good enough to even make a game of it. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
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11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots -1 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Patriots -1) I will gladly take my chances betting against Cleveland in this one. The Browns had the most lopsided win of any team in Week 9, as they went on the road and crushed division rival Cincinnati 41-16. Some might see a strong correlation with Cleveland having one of their best games after they ridded themselves of Odell Beckham Jr, but I'm not buying that storyline. I think the Browns caught a massive break early in that Bengals game and it was also a great matchup for Cleveland. The break came on the first drive of the game, where Cincinnati drove it all the way down to 1st & Goal to go, only to throw a 99-yard pick six. That completely flipped the script of that game and gave a struggling Browns team some much-needed life. Browns also had two long TD plays. They had a 60-yard TD pass on the first play after the Bengals turned it over on downs. They later got a 70-yard TD run from Nick Chubb. They only outgained the Bengals 361 to 348 and were out first downed 25 to 14. It simply wasn't as dominant as performance as what the score leads you to believe. I think it's going to be a lot tougher sledding for Baker Mayfield and that Browns offense on the road against a Pats defense that has really come into their own of late. It also doesn't help that Chubb is probably a no go after testing positive for COVID and even if he does play, Bill Belichick will have a game plan in place to not let Cleveland get their running game going and force Mayfield to beat them. Mayfield has faced a Belichick defense once so far in his brief career. That was at New England back in 2019. It didn't go well. He threw for just 194 yards and was sacked 5 times in a 13-27 loss. It's not going to be easy for the Pats offense against this Browns defense, but I just trust New England's offense more in this game and all we need is for them to find a way to win the game. Give me the Patriots -1! |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets OVER 47 | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 47) I think we are getting a great price here on the OVER at 47 in Sunday's game between AFC East rivals Buffalo and New York. I really love this spot for the Bills' offense, as they are going to be a pissed off bunch after scoring just 6-points in last week's shocking 6-9 loss at Jacksonville. They couldn't have asked for a better team to get back on track against than this Jets team. New York is dead last in the NFL in both scoring defense (31.4 ppg) and total defense (408.1 ypg). In their last 3 games they have given up 54 to the Patriots, 31 to the Bengals and 45 to the Colts. All 3 of those games combining for at least 65 points. I feel pretty good about Buffalo scoring at least 35 in this game and wouldn't be shocked if they got into the 40s. On the flip side of this, I love the fact that the Jets are going to go with Mike White at quarterback instead of going back to rookie Zach Wilson. White was sensational in the Jets upset win over the Bengals and looked really good to start out that game against the Colts before he got hurt and had to leave the game. I know the Bills have the top ranked secondary, but I still think we could see the Jets easily get into the 20s and that should be more than enough to push this past the number. Give me the OVER 47! |
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11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Lions +9) I will gladly take my chances here with the Lions as a 9-point dog against the Steelers. I don't care how bad you think this Detroit team is, Pittsburgh should not be close to a double-digit favorite against any team in the league. The Steelers offense is extremely limited with the little that Big Ben has left in the tank and their defense isn't all that it's made out to be. We saw that in their last game against the Bears, where they couldn't stop Justin Fields in the 2nd half of that game. I also think there's value here with Detroit, because the last time we saw them they got annihilated 44-6 at home by the Eagles. Thing with that game was it was a massive letdown for the Lions after playing their hearts out for Jared Goff against his old team in the Rams. Outside of that game, the one thing the Lions have done under Campbell is play extremely hard. This team is an NFL record long field goal from beating the Ravens, they also lost by just 2 at Minnesota. The game against the Rams was extremely close. I just feel like we are going to get one of those massive efforts from Detroit out of their bye week. I definitely think they cover the big number and I don't think it's out of the question that they win this game outright. Give me the Lions +9! |
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11-14-21 | Saints v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 18 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) I don't care that this looks too good to be true with Tennessee. The Titans are getting disrespected with this number. They should be be a bigger favorite than 2.5 at home against a Saints team that is starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. It shouldn't really come as a huge surprise that the books are off on the line when it comes to the Titans. They have been all season. Tennessee has covered 5 straight and are 7-2 ATS on the year. Everyone wanted to make a big deal about losing Derrick Henry, but we saw they just won 28-16 last week at the Rams in a prime time game. I also don't know that this Saints defense is as good as people are making it out to be. They didn't look elite in last week's home game against the Falcons. The other big thing that I think people overlook with the Titans is their defense. This team has went from being viewed as one of the worst defenses in the league to playing as well as any team on that side of the ball. You can't run the ball on them and they got guys who can get after the QB. I just don't see Siemian and the Saints offense being able to do enough to win on the road, which is basically what they would have to do to cover a number like this. Give me the Titans -2.5! |
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11-13-21 | Washington State +14 v. Oregon | 24-38 | Push | 0 | 58 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Washington St +14) I think we are getting a great price here with the Cougars as a two touchdown dog against the Ducks. Say what you want about where you think this Oregon team should be ranked in the standings, the fact of the matter is, they just haven't been that impressive outside of their big win at Ohio State. It's a great win, but it was two months ago. You got to judge a team based on what they look like now, not what they looked like in September. Since that win, they barely beat Cal 24-17 at home, squeaked by UCLA 34-31 on the road, and had their hands full in last week's 26-16 win at Washington. The only two teams they have beat in Pac-12 play by more than two touchdowns is Arizona and Colorado, who are easily the two worst teams in the league. Washington State comes in with a record of just 5-4, but they have won 4 of their last 5 and covered 6 straight games against the spread. That includes a 21-6 win at Cal as a 7.5-point dog, 31-24 win over Oregon State as a 4.5-point dog and a 34-21 win at ASU as a 16.5-point dog. Cougars have also had two weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon is in a bit of a sandwich spot. Ducks just played their biggest rival in the Pac-12 outside of Oregon State in Washington and have a MASSIVE game on deck next week at Utah. Give me Washington State +14! |
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11-13-21 | TCU +13.5 v. Oklahoma State | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (TCU +13.5) I was not the least bit surprised to see TCU pull off the upset last week at Baylor. We had the Horned Frogs +7 in that game. One of the biggest reasons I backed them in that spot, was not only because I knew they would be up to play Baylor, but teams almost always respond in a big way that first game after their head coach is fired (Gary Patterson was let go). I don't always come back with that team in the second game under a new coach, but I think it's more than worth a shot at this price. They should be up for this one, as they get a shot here to upset a Top 10 team in the country. However, the biggest reason I like TCU is they appear to have made a pretty big upgrade at quarterback going to freshman Chandler Morris. He came in relief of starter Max Duggan in the 2nd half of their loss to K-State and got the start against Baylor. He torched a good Bears defense, throwing for 461 yards and 2 scores, while rushing for 70 yards and a score. I think much like we have seen with Caleb Williams and the life he's given Oklahoma after replacing Spencer Rattler, we are going to see a similar thing with Morris and TCU. If Oklahoma State doesn't give TCU their full attention this week in practice, I really think the Horned Frogs could win this game outright. Give me TCU +13.5! |
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11-13-21 | Arkansas -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 8 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arkansas -2.5) We didn't get there with Arkansas -5 in last week's 31-28 win over Mississippi State, but that's not going to deter me in the slightest from jumping right back on the Razorbacks. I absolutely love this spot for Arkansas. I think they are still undervalued right now and in my mind the better team when these two take the field on Saturday. The reason I believe that this line is so low, is because everyone is scared to bet against LSU at home in a night game and everyone just saw this Tigers team only lose 14-20 as a 28.5-point dog at Alabama last week. I think the biggest mistake that people will make, is assuming LSU is going to bring that same intensity against Arkansas. I don't see it. There's no game the Tigers wanted to win more than last week's game against the Crimson Tide, which I think meant even more to them with how their season has transpired in the wrong direction. What motivation does LSU have here? You could say they need to win this to make a bowl, but I'm not a believer that program like LSU really cares about getting to 6-6 and going to a crappy bowl. On the flip side, this Arkansas program is a team that is trying to take that next step under 2nd year head coach Sam Pittman and winning on the road against LSU would be big for this team. It would also give them a legit shot at ending the year 4-4 in SEC Play, which is pretty big for a team that has 4 conference wins total the last 4 years. Give me the Razorbacks -2.5! |
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11-13-21 | Kansas +31 v. Texas | 57-56 | Win | 100 | 54 h 23 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS SHOCKER (Kansas +31) As difficult as it may be to bet on a team like Kansas, I just think you have to take a shot with the Jayhawks given this spot. It's not quite the same spot as we saw last week with Florida, who lost outright 40-17 as a 20.5-point favorite at South Carolina, but it does have some similarities. The two biggest differences being Florida was coming off that massive game against Georgia. Texas did just play a big game against ISU, but that game really didn't mean a whole lot for the Longhorns. THe other is Texas is at home, where Florida was on the road. The key here is the number we are getting is north of 30. There's nothing for Texas to play for. I know they still need two more wins to get bowl eligible, but going 6-6 and playing in a crappy bowl is not something a program like Texas gets excited about. I don't think there's any doubt that Kansas will be the more motivated team. Even though they aren't that good, everyone in the Big 12 is getting up to play Texas and Oklahoma with them leaving for the SEC. KU is also still trying to get that elusive first win in Big 12 play. Now I don't know if they can win the game, but with how little Texas figures to care about this game and how poor they are defensively, I don't think it's asking a lot for the Jayhawks to keep this within the number. Give me Kansas +31! |
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11-13-21 | NC State +2 v. Wake Forest | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (NC State +2) I think the price is right with NC State in this spot. Wake Forest just had their perfect 8-0 start to the season put to rest with a 55-58 loss at North Carolina. Now I know that defeat didn't count against their ACC record (it was a non-conference game), I still think losing that first game of the year will be a bit much for this team to overcome. I also was never really a big believer in this Wake Forest team. The biggest reason they got off to that 8-0 start was an easy schedule. They also were a bit lucky to have not lost before that with how bad they are on defense. They have given up more than 300 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, the only exception coming against Duke. They are allowing 436 yards/game on the season. This NC State offense is going to be able to move the ball. On the flip side of this, you could make a pretty strong argument that this Wolfpack defense will be the best defense that the Demon Deacons have seen this year. This is also a massive game for both teams, as the winner of this game will be in prime position to win the ACC Atlantic. I just think NC State is the better team with the better defense. Give me the Wolfpack +2! |
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11-13-21 | Maryland v. Michigan State -13 | 21-40 | Win | 100 | 73 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Michigan St -13) I'm shocked the Spartans are less than a two touchdown favorite at home against a bad Maryland team. I just feel like it's a bit of an overreaction to last week's 29-40 upset loss on the road against Purdue, especially given how much the public was on Michigan State in that game. I stayed away from Sparty in that game for a couple of reasons. One was I thought that the Boilermakers were better than people thought and the other was the awful spot for Michigan State coming off that emotional come from behind win over rival Michigan the previous week. The big key with jumping back on the Spartans after that loss, is the fact that nothing really changed long-term for Michigan State. They still control their destiny. If they win out and somehow beat Ohio State on the road, they will win the Big Ten East and play in the Big Ten title game. Win that and it's hard to believe they will be left out of the playoff. So while that monster game against the Buckeyes looms next week, I don't see that being a lookahead type of deal for this team. Had they beat Purdue it would be a different story. They can't afford to look past Maryland and they know it. As far as the matchup is concerned, there's a lot to like with Michigan State. Maryland hasn't proven they can stop anybody in the Big Ten. The Terps are giving up 39.0 ppg, 452 ypg and allowing 6.2 yards/play. A few games back we saw them go on the road and give up 326 rushing yards to Minnesota. I just don't see a scenario where the Maryland defense goes on the road and is able to contain a great back like Kenneth Walker, who leads the country in rushing with 1,330 yards and is averaging 6.8 yards/carry. I think the big concern a lot of people will have with Michigan State is their defense and whether or not they can trust them after watching the Wolverines and Boilermakers march up and down the field on them. The thing is, it's not as bad as it appears. Even with those two bad games, the Spartans are still giving up just 23.7 ppg and 5.4 yards/play in Big Ten play. Maryland is also a pretty easy team to defend, as they are all pass and no run. It's not that they choose not to run, they just can't. Terps are averaging just 82 yards/game and 2.8 yards/carry on the ground in Big Ten play. Michigan State is going to be able to sit back and play zone and I think they are not only going to be able to get off the field, but I think they could rack up the turnovers and really make this thing ugly. Give me Michigan State -13! |
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11-13-21 | Boston College +2 v. Georgia Tech | 41-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +2) I'm a little surprised to see the Eagles as a dog in this game. Boston College just played arguably their best game in more than a month, as they defeated Virginia Tech 17-3 as a 1-point home dog this past Friday. Prior to that win, BC had lost 4 straight and failed to cover their previous 3. The thing I think that scares people with the Eagles is they don't like betting teams that can't score and this is a team that has not scored more than 17 points in each of their last 5 games. I believe that's going to change. Last week Boston College finally got back starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who hadn't played since early September. He's a guy that a lot of people think will end up in the NFL after his days in Chestnut Hill. He should have a field day against this Georgia Tech defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65% of their attempts for 9.0 yards/attempt. The 9.0 yards/attempt is awful. On the flip side, this Eagles defense has quietly gone the radar this year. BC is only giving up 18.8 ppg, 334 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. I just don't see Georgia Tech scoring enough to make a game of this. Give me Boston College +2! |
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11-13-21 | Central Florida +7.5 v. SMU | Top | 28-55 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 42 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH (UCF +7.5) I love UCF catching 7.5 on the road against SMU. A lot of people threw this Knights team under the bus when they lost star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but I think they have really responded well to the injury. The offense hasn't been nearly as potent behind backup quarterback Mikey Keene, but he's been more than serviceable. Keene has completed 65% of his pass attempts for 1,089 yards and has a 12-6 TD/INT ratio. They also have a pretty good running back combo in Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson. I think that UCF offense will be able to move the ball against a pretty average SMU defense. Mustangs are giving up just 25.7 ppg on the season, but do allow 415 ypg. They are also trending in the wrong direction, having allowed 32.7 ppg, 463 ypg and 6.0 yards/play in their last 3 games. However, the biggest reason I'm looking to fade SMU, is I hate the spot they are in. SMU has went from being 7-0 and thinking they could challenge Cincinnati for the AAC title to losing back-to-back games and all the sudden basically being eliminated from any shot of the ACC title (they would need to beat Cincinnati on the road next week and have the Bearcats lose to either USF or ECU). I just think with no clear path to the AAC title game, it's going to make it really hard for SMU to not be looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Cincy. Even if they don't think the Bearcats are going to lose one of those other two, they are going to be extremely motivated to end their perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. Give me the Knights +7.5! |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +7.5) I know I'm going to be in the minority here, especially in the eyes of the public, but I like the Dolphins as a home dog against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. I don't really care if it's Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett, I think this Miami offense can move the ball on what I think is an overrated Baltimore defense. I think a lot of people would be surprised by just how bad the numbers are for the Ravens defense. Baltimore is giving up 374 ypg, which is only slightly better than the 392 that the Dolphins give up. The more staggering stat is that they are giving up 6.5 yards/play, which I care about a lot more than yards/game. Just to compare, Miami is only giving up 5.9 yards/play and that drops to 5.3 yards/play at home. The other thing for me is the spot. Baltimore just finished up playing 4 straight games at home with a thrilling 34-31 OT win against the Vikings, where they trailed 17-3 early and 24-10 in the 2nd half. It would not shock me at all on a short week if the Ravens went down to warm Miami against a bad Dolphins team and laid an egg. The other thing with Miami is they have been closer to winning than what people give them credit for. Prior to their win over the Texans, they only trailed the Bills 10-3 going into the 4th quarter, lost by just 2 to a Falcons team that has taken off, by just 3 in London to the Jags, by 10 to the Colts and by 3 to the Raiders. I don't know if they can win this game, but 7.5 is too good a price to pass up. Give me the Dolphins +7.5! |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) Thursday Night ATS NO-BRAINER (N Carolina +7) This is just too many points to pass up with North Carolina. The Tar Heels are catching a touchdown on the road against Pitt. It's not been the year that UNC was hoping for when they opened up as a preseason Top 10 team, but it's not been as bad as you might think with their 5-4 record. The Tar Heels have lost some games they shouldn't have. They had a bad showing in a road game against a pretty mediocre Georgia Tech team, but the other 3 losses were at Va Tech 10-17, home to FSU 25-35 and at Notre Dame 34-44. They outgained all 3 of those teams. They just put an end to Wake Forest's perfect season in last week's crazy 58-55 win over the Demon Deacons. I just don't think there's as big a gap between them and Pitt as what this number suggests. Yes, the Tar Heels defense is not very good, but neither is the Panthers. Pitt only giving up 22.7 ppg and 344 ypg is as misleading as it gets. Whenever this team has went up against a good offense they have struggled. Not many better offenses out their than what they will face in UNC. This line should be a field goal not a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh +7! |
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11-10-21 | Toledo v. Bowling Green OVER 49.5 | 49-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 49.5) The OVERs have been cashing left and right in these early weekday MAC games. We cashed one last night with Buffalo/Miami (OH) over 57. I'll roll the dice with another OVER Wednesday, as I just think 49.5 is way too low for the game between Bowling Green and Toledo. It's not out of the question that Toledo could put up on 50 on their own. They almost did last week against Eastern Michigan, as they hung 49 points and racked up nearly 700 yards of offense. That offense will be up against a Bowling Green defense that is giving up 39.0 ppg in MAC play. In their last 3 games the Falcons have allowed 34 to Northern Illinois, 55 to E Mich and 44 to Buffalo. Little more concern with Bowling Green's offense, but they should benefit from playing at home, they have scored at least 20 in every MAC game this year and I'm also not convinced the Rockets are all that motivated with no real shot of winning the MAC West and making the title game. Give me the OVER 49.5! |
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11-09-21 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH OVER 57 | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57) I will take my chances with the OVER 57 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Buffalo and Miami (OH). This game has shootout written all over it. Buffalo has seen an average of 67 points scored in their 5 conference games this season, as they are scoring 34.2 ppg and giving up 32.8 ppg. That soft Bulls defense is the key in this one, as the RedHawks are not the most explosive offense. With that said, Miami is averaging over 30 ppg in their last 3 and had over 500 yards of offense in last week's 33-35 loss at Ohio. I also think that while the RedHawks defense is only giving up 25.8 ppg and 20.6 ppg in conference play, a lot of that is who they have played. I just don't think they are going to be able to slow down this balanced Buffalo attack that comes in averaging over 200 yards/game on both the ground and thru the air. Give me the OVER 57! |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Steelers/Bears MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -7) I'm going to lay the 7-points with Pittsburgh in this one. I just don't trust this Bears team at all. The are extremely limited offensively and the defense is missing two of their best players in linebacker Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson. Mack didn't play at all in their last game against the 49ers and Jackson left on the second play from scrimmage. Without those two, San Francisco's limited offense was able to put up 33 points and 467 total yards. It's why I feel pretty good hear about the Steelers being able to do some things offensively. On the flip side of the ball, I just don't think Justin Fields is there. I know he played better in the loss to the 49ers, but most of the damage he did was on the ground. There's just zero threat of a passing game. I just think this Steelers defense is going to be able to take the run away and I don't know what Chicago can do to stay on the field. I see something along a 24-10 type of game. Give me the Steelers -7! |
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11-07-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Rams | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sunday Night Football NO-BRAINER (Titans +7.5) I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 7.5-point dog against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I think the perception with Tennessee is that they are going to fall flat on their face without Derrick Henry at running back. I'm not saying it's not a big blow to this team, but I think we are definitely seeing a big overreaction with this line because of Henry's absence. I think Adrian Peterson is going to surprise some people with how well he plays. People forget how good this guy was last year on a bad Lions team. Tennessee is also not all run. They can beat you with the passing game with Ryan Tannehill. A.J. Brown has also really picked up his game of late. In his last 3 games, he's got 25 passes for 379 yards (had 10 catches for 130 yards in the previous 4 games). This is also not the same elite defense for the Rams that we saw a year ago. Not to say they aren't an above average unit on that side of the ball, they just don't look to be on par to last year and some of that is definitely losing their defensive coordinator. Also, Keep in mind that 5 of their 8 opponents have been some bad offensive teams in the Colts, Bears, Giants, Lions and Texans. Give me the Texans +7.5! |
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11-07-21 | Packers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Packers +7.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Packers as a 7.5-point dog against the Chiefs. Not having Aaron Rodgers is a big blow to Green Bay's chances of winning this game, but that's not to say the Packers can't win this game with Jordan Love at quarterback. Kansas City has shown nothing to this point of the season to make me think they can blow out a team like Green Bay. Daniel Jones and the Giants almost beat KC last week in a prime time game and that was one the Chiefs had to have. Everyone just wants to assume that Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team is going to flip a switch and just go right back to being the same team that made it to back-to-back Super Bowls. I just don't see it. Mahomes is not right. He's not seeing the field well at all and to me it looks like he's playing way to fast and not letting it come to him. He's trying to be the hero on every play. You also got to looks at this Chiefs defense. They have played better of late, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball. Green Bay should be able to use their running game to really make the game easy for Love. I would not be shocked at all if Love came out and played well. I think KC wins the game, but I think this going to be a 1-score game in the 4th quarter that could go either way. Give me the Packers +7.5! |
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11-07-21 | Cardinals v. 49ers | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers PK) I love the 49ers at a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. San Francisco really should have beat Arizona in the first meeting. A game they lost 10-17. They did that with rookie backup Trey Lance at quarterback and it's clear that Lance is not ready for this stage. This time they will have Jimmy G under center and that's a huge upgrade at the biggest position on the field. On the flip side of this, I think there's a decent chance here that the Cardinals will be without their starting quarterback in Kyler Murray. He's questionable with an ankle injury and was very limited in practice this week. Without Murray I think Arizona would be around a .500 team, as he's had to do so much for this offense. Even if he plays, he doesn't figure to be 100% and will certainly not be looking to run the ball, which is arguably what makes him so special. This is a statement game for the 49ers, who really have to win this one to have any shot at making the playoffs. Give me San Francisco PK! |
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11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Chargers -1) I'm shocked the Chargers are only a 1-point favorite at the Eagles in Week 9. It almost makes me wonder if there's some covid problems or something we don't know about with LA. Unfortunately you just can't handicap that and I just can't pass up on this line. I'm not sure why the Eagles are getting this much respect from the books. Sure they looked great in last week's 44-6 win over the Lions, but I loved Philly in that game. They were laying just 3.5 on the road vs an awful Detroit team that was in a massive letdown spot. The Lions were coming off a devastating 19-28 loss at the Rams. A game they led 19-17 going into the 4th quarter. Losing how they did definitely played into the bad spot, but it was also the emotional letdown from playing as hard as they could for Goff in his first game vs his former team. The other two wins for Philly are a 21-18 road win against a struggling Panthers team and a Week 1 win over the Falcons. We saw them lose 21-41 at Dallas, 30-42 at home to the Chiefs and 22-28 at home to the Bucs. In those 3 games the Eagles defense gave up an average of 416.7 ypg. I got some concerns with the Chargers defense, but there's no reason I can find that would make me think Justin Herbert and that LA offense won't have their way on Sunday. I do get the Eagles are a good running team and the Chargers have not been good vs the run, but I don't think it's bad enough that Philly is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this game. Another thing with Philly's run game is they lost their top back in Miles Sanders before that Lions game. Something I don't think that's getting much attention because the Eagles just had 236 rushing yards in that win over the Lions. I really think LA should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me the Chargers -1! |
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11-07-21 | Raiders v. Giants +3 | 16-23 | Win | 108 | 69 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Giants +3) I will take my chances with the Giants as a 3-point home dog against the Raiders. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Giants team the past couple of weeks. They had dominating 25-3 win over the Panthers as a 3-point home dog in Week 7 and then went on the road and gave the Chiefs all they could handle in a 17-20 loss on Monday Night Football. The offense still has a ways to go, but that defense has really impressed me. They held the Panthers to a mere 173 total yards and then only gave up 368 to Mahomes and the Chiefs. A game no one wants to give them any credit for. All everyone wants to talk about is how bad KC is playing. On the flip side of this, I really have a hard time seeing Las Vegas showing up and playing well in this game given what's happened to their young star wide out Henry Ruggs III. For those that don't know, Ruggs III drove drunk and killed somebody this past week and will be spending the next 10 years or so in prison. Ruggs currently leads LV in receiving with 469 yards and was averaging a team-best 19.5 yards/reception. Not having that big play guy is going to make it that much harder on Carr and this offense. It's also nothing like when they came out fired out with something to prove after Gruden was fired. Focusing on football will be really hard for this Raiders team not just this week but the rest of the season. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants didn't win this game in a blowout. Give me New York +3! |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +6.5) I just think there's too much value to pass up a play on the Vikings as a 6.5-point dog against the Ravens. A lot of people were burned by Minnesota in last week's loss to the Cowboys, as everyone was on them with the Cowboys playing without Prescott. Not only did the Vikings not cover, they lost the game outright. I also think people are drawn to bet Baltimore with the Ravens coming off their bye week. Having the extra rest is nice and all, but the number here has been inflated because of it. I also think there's this perception that the Ravens are this elite team, when they haven't really played like one. Baltimore's 5-2 record looks great, but they could very easily be 2-5. They trailed 17-28 in the 4th quarter of a 36-35 win over the Chiefs, needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Lions 19-17 and somehow beat the Colts 31-25 in OT after trailing 25-9 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The offensive line has been decimated with injuries. Lamar Jackson has been sacked 3 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. The defense is also not what we are use to seeing. The biggest weakness being their secondary. If they can just give Kirk Cousins a little bit of time in the pocket, he's going to have a huge game here. Either way, I see this as a one score game in the 4th quarter, making it an easy play on Minnesota. Give me the Vikings +6.5! |
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11-07-21 | Browns v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NFL) AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals -2.5) I love the Bengals as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Browns. I just think we are getting an exceptional price here with Cincinnati after last week's shocking 31-34 loss at the Jets as a 11.5-point favorite. What a lot of people overlooked in that game against the Jets, is that was about as tough as spot as you will find. Cincinnati was coming off an emotional statement win on the road against the Bengals and were playing their 3rd straight road game, which is historically a spot where even the best teams struggle to play well. Add in this big game against Cleveland looming and it's no surprise they didn't show up with their best effort. As difficult as it is, you just got to throw that performance out and look at what this team was in the weeks prior. And that's a Bengals team that was playing as well as any team in the league. Offensively they got something special going with their combo of second year quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wide out Chase. Defensively this is a team that had not allowed more than 25 in any game before giving up 34 to the Jets. On the flip side, this Browns team is trending in the wrong direction. Baker Mayfield is just not playing good football and even with a great running game, they struggle to score. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. I just think it's asking a lot for the Browns to go on the road and win this game, which is basically what you are saying will happen if you take the 2.5. Give me the Bengals -2.5! |
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11-06-21 | Indiana +20.5 v. Michigan | 7-29 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS MONEYMAKER (Indiana +20.5) I've been down this road before with Indiana and it hasn't gone well. I played them at almost the exact same number at home a couple weeks ago against Ohio State and they lost the game 54-7. I just can't help myself by roll the dice with the Hoosiers, especially given the spot for the Wolverines. Michigan is coming off a devastating 33-37 loss to in-state rival Michigan State. That loss snapped the Wolverines perfect 7-0 start to the season and it's one that will be tough to get over. Not just from who the game was against, but how it played out with them leading by 30-14 in the 2nd half and not being able to hold on. You also got to take into consideration that they got a much bigger game on deck at Penn State next week, making this a bit of a sandwich spot for Michigan. Keep in mind that while Indiana got destroyed by the Buckeyes, they did only lost 15-20 at home to Michigan State the week prior. I just don't think the Wolverines are good enough offensively to win here by 3 or more touchdowns, especially given the big letdown hurdle they have to overcome. Give me the Hoosiers +20.5! |
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11-06-21 | Texas v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (ISU -6.5) I really like Iowa State as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Longhorns. I think it's a really good buy low spot on the Cyclones off a shocking 31-38 loss at West Virginia. The absence of linebacker Mike Rose was definitely felt in the loss to the Mountaineers, but he will be back for this game. I know both of these teams have all but played their way out of the Big 12 title game, but there's still some hope that if ISU can win out they could sneak back into the mix. It's not crazy to think that Oklahoma St and Baylor could lose two more conference games and if ISU beats Oklahoma, they would need just one more setback by the Sooners to own the tie-breaker on them (OU still has to play at Baylor or OK State). It's a different story for Texas. After last week's 24-31 loss at Baylor, there really isn't a path for the Longhorns with 3 conference losses already, especially given they have already lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Baylor. All that's left for Texas is to play for pride and that can be tough for a program like the Longhorns who expect to be contending for National Championships. You also got to wonder if the way Texas has been losing doesn't set them up for an absolute meltdown. The Longhorns had a 21-10 lead in the 2nd half of their loss vs Baylor. The week before they were 17-3 early and 24-13 in the 2nd half of a 24-32 loss to the Cowboys. The game before that they blew a 38-20 halftime lead vs Oklahoma. Give me Iowa State -6.5! |
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11-06-21 | Iowa -12 v. Northwestern | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 52 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH (Iowa -12) I was clearly on the wrong side with Iowa +3.5 in last week's ugly loss at Wisconsin. So were a lot of others. I just think most will have a hard time coming back with the Hawkeyes as a double-digit road favorite against a Northwestern program that has given them problems in the past. I'm not only going to fire back on Iowa, I'm loading up on the Hawkeyes this Saturday. The biggest difference between Iowa's 6-0 start and their back-to-back ugly losses to Purdue and Wisconsin is turnovers. Iowa was winning the turnover battle at an alarming rate in their 6-0 start. They are -6 in that department in their last 2 games. You also got to look at the fact that they just played two really good defenses. I just think it has Iowa way undervalued here against an awful Northwestern team. The Wildcats were one of the few teams that didn't bring back a plethora of starters and they really didn't do anything in the transfer portal. You can see it in the numbers. The Wildcats are scoring just 19.0 ppg and are giving up 27.1 ppg. Numbers that get a lot worse if you just look at conference play, as they are only scoring 14.0 ppg and giving up 35 ppg in Big Ten play. Not only are they giving up a ton of points, they are allowing 457.8 ypg and giving up close to 6 yards/carry vs the run. If Iowa can run the football, they can move the ball and I just don't see that Northwestern offense being able to have the kind of success needed to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Hawkeyes -12! |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -5 | 28-31 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 23 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Arkansas -5) I think a lot of people are going to be hesitant to take the Razorbacks in this game after just watching Mississippi State roll Kentucky 31-17 at home last week. You might remember that line stunk, as we had an unranked Bulldogs team listed as the favorite over the No. 12 ranked team in the country. Not only are people going to think twice about betting against Mississippi State, there's been a lot to get excited about with this Arkansas team after their 4-0 start that saw them knock off both Texas and Texas A&M. The biggest thing that brought the Razorbacks back to reality was the schedule. They had to play back-to-back road games against Georgia and Ole Miss before hosting a very underrated Auburn team that I think some people are starting to realize just how good they are. They snapped their 3-game skid, but it was against a cupcake in Arkansas-Pine Bluff. No one is going to read anything into that result. For me it's all about the eye test and I just think Arkansas is a really good football team and when you look at the matchup, there's reason to believe we are getting a great price on the Razorbacks. The strength of this Arkansas defense is their secondary. Going into the season, I had them as a Top 25 secondary in the nation. They have more than lived up to the hype. They rank 8th overall and 4th among Power 5 teams in passing yards allowed per game at 167.5. I just don't think it's the DNA of a Mike Leach offense to not throw the ball at all costs. Regardless if that's the best strategy to attack the defense you are playing. They remind me a lot of the Chiefs in the NFL. Even though teams are 100% playing pass, they continue to throw it when the running lanes are there. So while the passing yards may be there for Mississippi State in the end, I don't think they are going to be able to put a ton of points on the board. Keep in mind, it can be really hard to score in the redzone when you can't run and the other team has the talent to defend the pass. If a Bulldogs offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.6 yards/play can give us anything, I see this being a very comfortable win for Arkansas. It also doesn't hurt that Arkansas comes into this game off a bye. Give me the Razorbacks -5! |
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11-06-21 | NC State -2.5 v. Florida State | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 49 h 39 m | Show |
50* (CFB) - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (NC State -2.5) I love NC State laying less than a field goal on the road against Florida State. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how it is that the Wolfpack are this shot of a favorite against a FSU team that is just 3-5. I think when a line looks off like this, you can almost talk yourself into taking the other side and I've heard a heck of a lot more people picking FSU in this game than I have people siding with NC State. The fact that not everyone is screaming take the Wolfpack, makes me feel a lot more comfortable backing NC State. I think the biggest thing that gets lost with this handicap is the emotional letdown that has to come from last week's game at Clemson. A game they led 20-17 until giving up a TD to the Tigers in the final minute of regulation. I know Clemson is down, but these other ACC teams don't care. The Tigers are still the biggest game on the schedule. So while there will be those that play the card that FSU will want to play spoiler against NC State's quest to win the ACC Atlantic, I'm just not buying it. I also don't love the matchup at all for the Seminoles. FSU is a pretty one-dimensional offense that really needs to be able to run the ball and are going up against stingy NC State defense that is giving up just 18 ppg and 339.8 ypg in ACC play. Wolfpack also give up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run. FSU's defense is giving up 30.2 ppg and 415.4 ypg in ACC play. Give me the Wolfpack -2.5! |
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11-06-21 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. West Virginia | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 88 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma State -2.5) I was lucky enough to get in on the Cowboys -2.5 before the line jumped to -3.5 and I would still recommend a play on Oklahoma State at -3.5. It took me some time to come around on this Oklahoma State team and while I think more and more are jumping on the Gundy bandwagon, I still feel like this Cowboys team doesn't get the respect they deserve. We have seen this week in and week out with this team, as they come in having covered 6 straight games. There's also been nothing fluky about it. Oklahoma State has outgained every team during this stretch, including the game they lost against ISU. Cowboys are outgaining teams on the season by 100 ypg and by 154.6 ppg in their 5 Big 12 games. W. Virginia is getting outgained by only 2 yards/game, but are giving up 400.2 ypg in Big 12 games. I also think you got to look at the two defenses in play. Oklahoma State is giving up just 17 ppg, 274.8 ypg and 4.8 yards/play in Big 12 games. The Mountaineers are allowing 26.4 ppg, 400.2 ypg and 6.4 yards/play in Big 12 games. Offensively I would say the two teams are pretty even, so it really comes down to me, who I think can get the stops needed and that's a pretty easy one. Just feels like to me the Mountaineers are getting a little too much respect from winning outright their last two games vs TCU and ISU. I know you could say the Cyclones and Cowboys are even, but keep in mind that ISU didn't have the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Mike Rose in that loss to the Mountaineers. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5 |
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11-06-21 | Baylor v. TCU +7 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 8 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Situational Public Money ATS MASSACRE (TCU +7) I just got to take a shot here with TCU as a 7-point home dog against Baylor. These two teams from the state of Texas do not like each other, I think even more so there's a real hatred from the TCU side. I kind of had this game circled as a big effort game for TCU when I looked at the games Sunday and then we found out that head coach Gary Patterson was being let go. I just thought there was going to be motivation from the Horned Frogs not only from being a home dog, but also the chance to spoil one of their biggest rivals quest to make the Big 12 title game. Now we should get as big an effort as TCU can muster after Patterson leaving, as teams always seem to lay it all on the line in that first game after a coach gets fired. I'm also just not quite sold on this Baylor team. One thing that I think gets overlooked in their 7-1 start, is the fact that they have played just 3 true road games and two of those were cupcake opponents in Texas State and Kansas. The one good team they played was Oklahoma State and they lost 24-14 while getting outgained 401 to 280 (24-10 first downs). Give me the Horned Frogs +7! |
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11-06-21 | California -11.5 v. Arizona | 3-10 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (California -11.5) I got no problem laying the 11.5 on the road with Cal, as the Golden Bears will travel to Tucson to take on a winless Arizona team. I just think a lot of people will look and see that Cal is just 3-5 and will have a hard time trusting the Bears to cover double-digits on the road, especially after Arizona just covered their last two games as a double-digit dog. The Wildcats lost 16-21 at home to Washington as a 17.5-point dog and 34-41 at USC as a 21.5 point dog. Simply put, the market has adjusted some on Arizona after those results and now it's time to go the other way. I also think this Cal team might be one of the more underrated squads in the country. The Golden Bears are just 3-5, but a lot of that is some bad luck in close games. They are 0-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points. They come in having covered 3 straight and have really done some impressive things offensively in this stretch. Over this 3-game span they are as balanced as it gets, averaging 207.7 rushing yards/game and 244.7 passing yards/game. This includes a road game at Oregon and a home game against a very good Oregon State team. Cal is also 3-5 despite outscoring their opponents by 1.6 ppg and outgaining them by 57 ypg. Arizona is 0-8 for good reason. They are getting outscored by 15.0 ppg and outgained by 30 ypg. Give me Cal -11.5! |
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11-06-21 | Missouri +39 v. Georgia | 6-43 | Win | 100 | 45 h 42 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Early Bird ATS SHOCKER (Missouri +39) I'm will take my chances with Missouri losing by less than 40 in their game against No. 1 ranked Georgia on Saturday. I just think the public perception is that no matter what the line is, there's no way they are going to bet against the Bulldogs against a team like Missouri. I get it. Georgia has been incredible and certainly look like the best team in the country, but asking any team to win a conference game by 40+ is a lot. Now I know the Bulldogs defense has not allowed more than 13 points in a game this season, but if there's one game they might not be as locked in on that side, it's this one. Georgia just beat arguably their biggest rival last week in Florida, which many thought was their last real test leading up to the SEC title game. Just that game alone could spark a letdown, but it's really the 4th straight big game that the Bulldogs have played. It started with a home game against an undefeated Arkansas team back in early October. They then went on the road to Auburn before hosting another undefeated team in Kentucky. Ending with the game against Florida. Add in the massive spread and it's going to be hard for Georgia to take this one seriously. There's also no incentive anymore to blow teams out once they are up big. Georgia's path to the payoff is paved as long as they just win out. Given the schedule they have just played, this feels like a game where if it does get out of hand, the starters could get pulled a little earlier than normal. Even if Missouri only scores 13, I think they will be able to get to 20, it would take 60 points from Georgia to cover this game. Give me the Tigers +39! |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +3 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (NCAAF) - Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Boston College +3) I'll take my chances with Boston College as a home dog in Friday's home game against Virginia Tech. This line is begging you to take the Hokies, as Virginia Tech comes in off a 26-17 win and cover as a 3-point road dog at Georgia Tech, while the Eagles enter on a 4-game losing streak. A horrific stretch offensively for the Eagles, who have scored just 13, 7, 14 and 6 points respectively. Simply put the line here stinks and when something smells this bad, especially in a weeknight game, you got to look the other way. Note that even with everyone running to place a bet on the Hokies, this line is not moving. That tells me the books have got some respected money on BC and do not want to give out the 3.5 to the wiseguys. I think the biggest thing that's getting overlooked with Va Tech, is prior to winning and covering against Georgia Tech this past Saturday, they were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games. It's a great sell high spot on the Hokies, who have looked great offensively in their last two games and have taken great care of the ball. History backs this up. Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after 2 straight games where they gained 6.25 or more yards/play and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 on the road after 2 straight games where they didn't have a single turnover. We also see that road favorites who are not good vs the run (allow 4.75 or more yards/carry) and have given up 5.5 or more yards/carry in each of their last 2 games are just 14-39 (26.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me BC +3! |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Jets/Colts TNF VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -10) I'm shocked we have seen this much overreaction from last week. The lookahead on this game was around the Colts -14 and we are getting them at -10. Everyone is jumping on the Mike White bandwagon after his 400+ yard performance in his first ever start last week against the Bengals. I just think that big game by White was more a culprit of the Bengals just not showing up to play after such a big game the previous week against Baltimore and it being their 3rd straight road game. Not to mention the Jets had just lost 13-54 the previous week to the Pats. I just think if White was as good as he looked in that start, he would have somehow forced his way onto the field before now. Guy was drafted back in 2018. I also think there's a narrative out there that with the Colts heartbreaking 31-34 OT loss last week to the Titans their season is now over with them sitting at just 3-5 and and essentially 4-games back of Tennessee in the AFC South. No questions is a much bigger uphill climb after losing that game, but I'm not buying at all that this team is going to just throw in the towel with more than half of the schedule still to play. I like the Colts to win here and win going away. Give me Indianapolis -10! |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan +9.5 v. Western Michigan | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Wednesday MACtion MONEYMAKER (C Michigan +9.5) Give me the Chippewas as a 9.5-point dog against the Broncos in Wednesday's battle for the Victory Cannon. I like to lean to the dog in rivalry games like this, but this was a no-brainer for me. I don't understand at all why Western Michigan is laying more than a touchdown in this game. It just feels like to me that the market is a little high on this Broncos team and I think a lot of it has to do with that early season road win at Pitt. Central Michigan is just 4-4, but two of their losses were non-conference games on the road against SEC teams. Their 2 conference losses have been a 11-point loss on the road against a good Miami (OH) team and a 1-point loss to arguably the best team in the league in Northern Illinois. Central Michigan's offense is built around the passing game. They come in averaging 285 ypg thru the air. That's worth noting, as these kind of pass heavy offenses have given Western Michigan problems. The Broncos are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game. Give me the Chippewas +9.5! |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | 52-49 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACTION MONEYMAKER (Under 53.5) I love the value we are getting with the UNDER 53.5 in Tuesday's Maction between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. I think the defenses for both teams will have the edge in this game. The Eagles high-powered offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, is a bit fluky. They only average 373 ypg, 5.6 yards/play and have played a pretty soft schedule in terms of defenses they have played. Toledo is giving up 18.3 ppg, 326 ypg and 4.7 yards/play and that's vs teams that on average score 24.6 ppg, while giving up 375 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. As for the Rockets' offense, they are scoring 28.5 ppg, but are really weak up front on the offensive line and are facing a decent defense here in Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are only giving up 24.9 ppg and 393 ypg. Give me the UNDER 53.5! |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs OVER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Giants/Chiefs MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) *Analysis Coming* |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) I love the UNDER 50.5 in Sunday's big NFC South matchup between the Bucs and Saints. I just have a hard time seeing this being a shootout. In fact, I think it's going to be a struggle for both teams offensively. Tom Brady has been great, but almost all of their high point totals have come against bad defenses. They had 48 against the Falcons, 45 against the Dolphins and 38 vs the Bears. While Chicago's defense is horrible, that was just all turnovers by the Bears offense. Only 1 of TB's 6 scoring drives were more than 50 yards with 4 of the 5 needing 40 or less yards to reach the endzone. I think with Antonio Brown still out and Gronk likely either sidelined or playing at less than 100%, it's going to be hard for Brady and that offense to sustain drives against this Saints defense. On the flip side of this, it's no secret that Sean Payton has zero desires of letting Jameis Winston throw it 40+ times per game. That's not going to change just because the Bucs are banged up in the secondary. Their whole game plan is going to be to ride Kamara and do what they can to eat up clock and limit the possessions for Brady and that Bucs offense. Unless we get an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers or the Saints defense somehow gets exposed, this thing is going to finish in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! |
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10-31-21 | Patriots +4.5 v. Chargers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots +4.5) We may have missed the best number, but I still see more than enough value with the Pats at +4.5 to back them. I think a lot of people have really fallen in love with this Chargers team and at the same time don't trust this New England team. The Pats are just 3-4 going into Week 8 with two of their wins coming against the Jets and the other against the Texans. With that said, they are dangerously close to being 6-1. They had 1st and 10 at the Dolphins 11 yard line down 16-17 and fumbled the ball with just minutes to play. They were a missed 56 yard FG away from being up 20-19 on TB with less than a minute to play. They were up 21-20 on Dallas with the ball and 2:34 on the clock and threw a pick-six. They get a 75-yard TD on their next series to lead 29-26, only to let the Cowboys get a FG and then go on to lose in OT. Even in their 28-13 loss to the Saints they outgained NO 300-252. As for the Chargers, they are a good team, but I don't think they are as good as what people think. They were lucky to win that game at KC in Week 3 and somehow they get that 47-42 win over the Browns after trailing by 14 in the 2nd half. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with LA is their defense and the inability it has at stopping the run. No body is better at exploiting a team's weakness than Belichick and there is a massive mismatch in this game in favor of the Pat's O-line and the Chargers defensive front (the front 7 for LA is awful outside of Bosa). I also like Belichick and his defense to make things a little difficult on Justin Herbert. If you remember last year when these two teams played, Herbert was a mere 26 of 53 for 209 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs in a 45-0 Pats win. Give me New England +4.5! |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Seahawks -3) Maybe I'm not giving this Jags team enough respect, but I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Seahawks. Everyone has kind of written off Seattle, at least until they get Russell Wilson back at quarterback. It's going to be an uphill climb, but the Seahawks aren't out of the playoff picture just yet. You have to believe we are going to get their best effort in this game. They have to beat Jacksonville or their season is over. Geno Smith isn't Russell Wilson, but there's a lot worst backup QBs in this league. He hasn't done anything special, but in the 3 games (2 starts) he's been up against some pretty good defenses, at least in being able to pressure the QB, in the Rams, Steelers and Saints. This Jacksonville defense is giving up 28.7 ppg, 412 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. Yes the Jags are off a bye, but outside of beating a bad Dolphins team in London a couple weeks ago, what has this team done to make you think they can across the country to one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and get a win (that's basically what you are saying if you take the +3). Not to mention, they got to do that with a head coach in Urban Meyer who is clueless to how this all works at the NFL level. Give me the Seahawks -3! |