Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-26-20 | Pacers v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Indiana. The Pacers won by 14, 114-107, vs. the New York Knicks on Wednesday, while Chicago was blown out by 20, 124-104, by the Atlanta Hawks. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade Chicago off that dismal performance. But consider that NBA teams off a loss by 20+ points in their season opener have covered 70% since 1990 when not getting more than 7 points in Game 2. Even better: mid-priced NBA road favorites of -4 to -8.5 points have covered just 10 of 35 off a win in their season opener at home, including 1-11 ATS vs. division rivals. Take Chicago + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Magic v. Wizards -2 | Top | 130-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Orlando. The Magic upset Miami, at home, 113-107, on Wednesday, while Washington lost by an identical score to the 76ers, but covered the spread as a 7-point road underdog. The silver lining for the Wizards is that NBA teams that lost, but covered the spread in their season opener, have proceeded to cover 67.5% in Game 2 since 2008, including 75% when not favored by 3+ points. Meanwhile, the Magic have covered just 7 of 23 off an upset home win. and they're also 13-21-1 ATS their last 35 vs. Washington. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Cavs v. Pistons -2 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Pistons lost by 10, 111-101, at Minnesota, on Wednesday, while the Cavaliers won their home opener, 121-114, against Charlotte. But the Cavs were the Eastern Conference's worst team last season, with a 19-46 record. And NBA teams playing their home opener, like Detroit, have cashed 67% since 1991 if they were off a double-digit loss, and were playing an opponent off a win in its home opener, if that opponent had a worse record the previous season. Take Detroit minus the points. |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 122-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks were a losing team last season, but opened their 2020-21 campaign with a road win at Chicago. They will now play the Grizzlies who lost their season opener at home, 131-119, on Wednesday to the Spurs. We'll take Memphis at home, as NBA teams have cashed 77% at home since 1991 off a loss in their home opener, if their opponent was off a SU win, and our home team owned a better record the previous season. Additionally, the Hawks are a poor 11-24 ATS after winning on the road, if the Hawks weren't getting 9+ points in their current game. Take Memphis on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the LA Clippers. The Clips opened their season with a "road" win against the Lakers, while Denver lost at home to the Sacramento Kings. But over the last 31 years, NBA home teams have covered 67% in Game 2, if they lost at home in their season opener, and their opponent was off an upset road win. Moreover, the Clippers are a poor 7-20 ATS on the non-division road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points, if they were off a SU win. Take Denver to bounce back on Christmas, and blow out the Clippers. Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Warriors v. Bucks -10 | 99-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Golden State. Both of these teams lost their season openers. Golden State was blown out by Brooklyn on Tuesday, while the Bucks fell at the buzzer to Boston by a single point. Since his arrival in Milwaukee, coach Mike Budenholzer's men have been exceptional in the regular season when coming off a straight-up loss. They're 32-5 SU and 27-10 ATS, including 8-1 ATS at home when not laying more than 11 points. Take Milwaukee minus the points. |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the New Orleans Pelicans. On Wednesday, Stan Van Gundy's Pelicans upset Toronto to kick off their 2020-21 campaign, while Miami lost as a road favorite against the Orlando Magic. We'll play on the Heat on Thursday, as they've gone 43-23 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent off an upset win. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | San Jose State +21 v. Utah State | Top | 52-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Utah State. In our current COVID-19 environment, many conferences have adapted by scheduling back-to-back games between the same teams, on the same court. So, after the Aggies blew out the Spartans, 107-62, here on Monday night, they'll face off again today. And we'll take the Spartans + the double-digits tonight, as teams playing with revenge from a 40-point loss earlier in the season are 89-64-4 ATS their last 157. And Mountain West Conference underdogs of more than 13 points have gone 109-61 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Take the Spartans + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | UMKC v. St. Louis -23.5 | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Kansas City. After going 6-0 SU/ATS to start the season (all six games were at home), the Billikens were upset on the road by Minnesota, 90-82, on Sunday. But St. Louis is back home tonight. And it has always been a strong home team, not just to start this season. Indeed, the Billikens are 41-19-1 ATS their last 61 at home, and 217-164-4 ATS their last 385. Additionally, the Kangaroos have covered just 38% as underdogs over the last 30 seasons off back to back wins. Take St. Louis. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | CS Bakersfield v. Pepperdine -7 | Top | 79-51 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Pepperdine Waves minus the points over Cal Bakersfield. The Waves were upset, 75-63, as a 2.5-point home favorite on Saturday by UCSB. But off that loss, we'll take the Waves to blow out the Roadrunners, as Pepperdine falls into a 64% "bounce-back" system of mine. Even better: over the last 20 seasons, the Waves have cashed 69% at home off a home upset loss, while the Roadrunners have covered just 20% vs. foes off an upset loss. Take Pepperdine minus the points. |
|||||||
12-22-20 | East Tennessee State v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over East Tennessee State. Nate Oats' men were upset here, at Coleman Coliseum, on Saturday by Western Kentucky. The Tide were favored by 4.5 points, but lost 73-71 on the heels of a goaltending call which provided the final margin of victory. But off that home loss, we'll lay the big number tonight with the Crimson Tide. Alabama's a fantastic 29-13 ATS off a home upset loss, while Southern Conference teams have covered just 38% vs. SEC teams off an upset loss. And Alabama also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off an upset loss. Lay the points with Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-22-20 | NC-Greensboro -11.5 v. North Carolina A&T | Top | 86-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC Greensboro Spartans minus the points over NC A&T. The 3-8 Aggies have been installed as a double-digit underdog this evening against their crosstown rivals in this 21st edition of the "Battle for the Boro." But they're a dismal 0-14 SU and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14 when getting 11 or more points. And the Aggies also were blown out by the Spartans last season, 83-50. Even worse for NC A&T: it may be without leading scorer (and the NCAA's top assist man last season), Kam Langley, tonight, as he's questionable to play. Regardless of Langley's availability, we're going to fade the Aggies, as they fall into a negative 42-97 ATS system of mine. Take the Spartans minus the points. |
|||||||
12-22-20 | Tenn-Martin v. Ole Miss -26 | Top | 43-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over Tennessee-Martin. After starting the season with 4 straight victories, the Rebels were upset, 65-62, at Dayton on Saturday. And it was the first time the Rebels gave up more than 58 points in a game. This afternoon, Ole Miss is back home at The Pavilion, where it will welcome a Skyhawks team which is also coming off its first loss of the season. Tennessee-Martin fell, 81-63, at Western Illinois, as the Leathernecks shot 50% for the game. Ole Miss is a solid 21-8 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) off an upset loss, while the Skyhawks are a horrid 5-21 ATS their last 26 (and 15-36 their last 51) as a road underdog, including 1-12 ATS when they owned a winning record. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Murray State v. Austin Peay +3.5 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors + the points over Murray State. The Racers were favored by 3 points at home less than two weeks ago against Austin Peay, and won by 30, 87-57. By my math, the oddsmakers have made too much of an adjustment to set the point spread at roughly the same price on the road. And especially since Murray State is 4-0 at home, with an average margin of 40 ppg, but 0-2 on the road with a negative scoring margin of -10.5 ppg. The Governors also fall into a revenge system of mine which is 149-99 ATS. That angle plays on certain underdogs that have revenge from 20-point (or worse) defeats. Finally, Murray State is 0-7 ATS its last seven road games off a home win. Take Austin Peay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Missouri State +1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Missouri State Bears minus the points over Arkansas-Little Rock. The Trojans upset Missouri State here last season, 67-66, as a 12.5-point road underdog. But you know what they say about 'paybacks!' And the Bears fall into a super 172-119 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 70-32 ATS system which plays on certain home teams, not favored by 3+ points, off back to back wins. Even better: the Trojans are a woeful 4-13 ATS when facing a revenge-minded non-conference foe. Take Missouri State. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Gardner-Webb v. Florida State -20 | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Gardner-Webb. The Runnin' Bulldogs have lost all three of their road games this season, and now have the misfortune of playing the Seminoles, who just dropped their first game of the season -- as a 14.5-point home favorite -- to Central Florida. But I love FSU to rebound off that upset defeat, as it falls into a 70-37 ATS 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain home favorites after upset losses. Additionally, ACC Conference teams have covered 62.6% as non-conference favorites of -20 (or more) points off a SU loss (and 76.4% ATS at home if they failed to cover by 10+ in their previous game). Take the Seminoles. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | South Carolina State v. Furman -31.5 | Top | 52-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over South Carolina State. The Bulldogs are 0-9 SU this season (though they did cover their previous game at Presbyterian), and will be in for a tough task this afternoon in Greenville. And that's because Furman was upset by Winthrop on Saturday, 87-71, as a 2.5-point road favorite. That was also the 2nd straight loss for Furman (who were 25-7 last season), so Bob Richey's men will no doubt be happy to see the Bulldogs today so they can take out their frustration. Furman has excelled in favorite role, and especially when laying a big number, as it is 45-18 ATS when laying more than 8, including 37-10 ATS if Furman owned a winning record, and its opponent had a losing record (and, then, 10-0 ATS in that set if its opponent was off an ATS win). Take the Paladins minus the points. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Jacksonville v. Kansas State -12 | Top | 46-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Jacksonville. The Wildcats have had an unusually poor start to their season, as they're 3-5, including a 31-point loss (100-69) to #2-ranked Baylor on Saturday. Their nadir, thus far, was of course their loss to Division II Fort Hays State. Tonight, they'll face off against the Jacksonville Dolphins, who are 6-3 on the season. We'll lay the points with K-State, as Big 12 Conference teams are 42-19 ATS as home favorites of more than 9 points after failing to cover the spread by 9+ in their previous game. And the Wildcats are also 8-0 SU and 6-0 ATS at home after giving up more than 95 points in their previous game. Lay it. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Marquette +3 v. Xavier | Top | 88-91 | Push | 0 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles + the points over Xavier. The Musketeers are undefeated after winning back to back upsets over crosstown rival Cincinnati, 77-69, and the Oklahoma Sooners, 99-77. Unfortunately, undefeated teams have covered just 36.6% since 1990 as a single-digit home favorite off an upset win by more than 10 points. Even worse, .850 (or better) teams, not favored by more than 13 points, have covered just 34.8% since 1990 at home off back to back upset wins. Marquette has won and covered the last four games in this series, and plays this afternoon's game off an upset loss at home to Seton Hall. And Marquette's a solid 43-27 ATS on the conference road off a SU loss when Marquette wasn't favored by more than 5 points. Take Marquette + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Marist v. Manhattan -1 | Top | 61-39 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Marist. In their last game, the Jaspers upset Rider, 87-77, as a 1-point home underdog. Off that win, we'll play on Manhattan this afternoon, as home teams, off double-digit upset home conference wins, have cashed 58% of conference games since 1990 (212-155 ATS) when not favored by more than 3 points. That bodes well for the Jaspers today. As does the fact that it's cashed 64.7% over the last 31 years at home off an upset win, if it was favored against a conference foe. Finally, the Red Foxes have covered just 14 of 41 games off a SU win. Lay the small number with the homestanding Jaspers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-18-20 | Davidson +2.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats + the points over Rhode Island. The Rams come into this game off back to back road losses at Wisconsin and at Western Kentucky (though they covered each in defeat to extend their ATS win streak to 4 games). Meanwhile, Davidson was upset, 63-52, as a 10.5-point home favorite in its last game. But off that upset loss, we'll back the Wildcats in this underdog role tonight, as teams off double-digit losses, as double-digit favorites have covered 64% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back defeats. Additionally, Bob McKillop's men are 24-11-1 ATS off a SU loss when not getting more than 3 points in a conference game. And they're 21-10-1 ATS in competitively-priced conference games with a point spread of 3 points or less. Meanwhile, the Rams are a poor 5-9 ATS as a home favorite vs. conference foes off upset losses. And Rhode Island also falls into a negative 13-45 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off 4+ ATS wins. Take Davidson + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Dixie State v. Southern Utah -10 | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Dixie State. These two Beehive State schools are located less than an hour apart from each other, and should begin to play with more regularity now that Dixie State has made the jump to Division 1 this season. Both teams have gotten off to good starts this season. Dixie is 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. The Trailblazers pulled off an upset win in their last game, as they won, 73-70, at Denver, as a 2-point underdog. But that upset victory has triggered a negative 39% ATS system of mine which goes against certain .818 (or better) teams off upset wins, if they're on the road vs. opponents also off a win. Like Dixie State, the Thunderbirds have yet to lose against the spread this season, as they're 4-0 ATS. And they've also cashed 62% at home vs. foes off upset wins. Even better: .720 (or better) Big Sky conference teams have cashed 67% of non-conference games (and 71% of games vs. foes off a SU win). Lay the points with Southern Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-16-20 | Duke -4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Notre Dame. In their last game, the Irish upset Kentucky, 64-63, as a 7.5-point road underdog. Can Mike Brey's men make it two-in-a-row? It's not likely, as Mike Krzyzewski's men fall into one of their best situations tonight. The Blue Devils come into this game on an 0-4 ATS run, including an 83-68 blowout upset loss at the hands of Illinois eight days ago. But the Dukies are a spectacular 26-8-1 ATS in the regular season when they were on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 18-3 ATS as a favorite vs. ACC schools. The Blue Devils are also 6-0 SU/ATS vs. the Irish since 2017, and 18-5 ATS off a double-digit upset defeat. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-16-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oregon State -7.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Texas San Antonio. Wayne Tinkle's Beavers have gotten off to a rough start this season, as they've lost their last three games -- all of the upset variety. That streak should end this afternoon, as home favorites of more than 6 points -- off exactly 3 losses -- have covered 65% since 2000 if they were favored in each of those three defeats. Even better: Texas San Antonio has covered just 10 of its last 33 away from home when installed as an underdog. Take Oregon State to blow out the Roadrunners. |
|||||||
12-15-20 | Charlotte v. Davidson -11.5 | Top | 63-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats minus the points over Charlotte. In this Mecklenburg County battle, we'll side with the homestanding Wildcats against the 49ers. Even though Davidson's just 20 miles from Charlotte, this still counts as a road game for the 49ers. And it will be Charlotte's first road game of the season. Unfortunately, the road has not been kind to Charlotte, as it has gone 13-45 SU and 18-39 ATS since January 2016. But that's not the worst part. When the 49ers have been installed as a dog of more than 8 points, they've gone 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS on the road! Lay the double-digits with Davidson. |
|||||||
12-15-20 | Minnesota v. Illinois -7.5 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are unbeaten, at 6-0, as they enter Big 10 Conference play. But the Gophers were double-digit favorites in five of those six games, so the reality is that they're really not been tested. Here, they're installed as a mid-sized road underdog against a 4-2 Illinois team ranked #13 in the country. Over the last 20 years, teams that were undefeated in their non-conference games prior to starting conference play have covered just 41% as underdogs of more than 5 points in their first conference game. Even worse for Richard Pitino's troops: they're a dreadful 12-34 ATS their last 46 Big 10 conference road games when installed as a single-digit underdog (or PK). And they're 16-36 ATS their last 52 vs. Illinois (including 0-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points). Take the Illini minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-15-20 | Houston Baptist v. Rice -14.5 | Top | 79-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over Houston Baptist. The Owls were upset here, at home, 72-61, on Sunday by New Mexico. But off that double-digit upset defeat, the Owls now fall into several of my better bounce-back systems, including one with a 58-21 ATS record. It's true that these two teams met a week-and-a-half ago -- a game which Rice won by 22, 86-64, as a 9.5-point favorite. And it's also true that I will often take teams to avenge such blowout losses. But it's hard to make a case for the Huskies this afternoon. After all, they've lost their three road games this season by 24, 23, and 25 points. And the fact that they come into this game off a SU win, while Rice checks in off an upset loss is enough for me to ignore the revenge angle. Finally, the Owls have cashed 63% as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points off an upset home loss. Lay the points with Rice. |
|||||||
12-14-20 | William & Mary v. George Washington -6.5 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on the CBS Sports Network, our selection is on the George Washington Colonials minus the points over William & Mary. GW comes into this game off back to back upset losses at UMBC and at Delaware, while William & Mary also comes into tonight's game off a loss at Old Dominion. We'll lay the points with the Colonials, as home teams have cashed 62.3% since 1990 in non-conference games after being upset in two straight games. And George Washington is a super 32-16 ATS off a loss when priced from -6.5 to -16.5 points, if their opponent is also off a defeat. Take George Washington minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | New Mexico v. Rice -2 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over New Mexico. Rice is off to a perfect 4-0 start this season, and is 2-0 ATS in their two lined games. Meanwhile, this will be the Lobos first game of the season, as COVID has greatly impacted their program. Even worse, the state of New Mexico has issued an order which prohibits the team from practicing or playing games within the state. So, UNM has created a "home away from home" in West Texas, and has been scrimmaging non-division I opponents like South Plains College and Lubbock Christian University. Whether such scrimmages will have prepared the Lobos for their first Division I game of the season this afternoon remains to be seen, but we will bet against it. One reason is that the Lobos have been dreadful on the road over the last few seasons, even without the COVID-related distractions. Dating back to 2015, New Mexico is 26-60 SU away from home, and 31-52 ATS, including 16-40 ATS vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss. And Rice is 27-15 ATS as a single-digit favorite vs. non-conference foes. Take Rice minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Norfolk State v. NC-Greensboro -10.5 | Top | 47-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on North Carolina-Greensboro minus the points over Norfolk State. In its last game, NC Greensboro was upset, 85-80, by Coppin St, as a 21.5-point road favorite! That was the biggest upset loss sustained on an opponent's home court in the last 31 seasons. And that was also the 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS) suffered by NC Greensboro. We'll lay the points this afternoon, as this is a great bounce-back spot vs. Norfolk St., which won and covered last Monday vs. Hampton. For technical support, consider that home teams have covered 64% since 1990 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite away from home when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a straight-up win. Take NC Greensboro. |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Iona v. Fairfield +7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 35 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fairfield Stags + the points over Iona. These two teams played last night, and the result was not pretty for the Stags, as they shot just 27% for the game, and were annihilated 70-42. Last night, Fairfield was a 4-point home underdog; tonight, the line has been adjusted upwards by a few points to better reflect last night's score. For some, it won't be enough of an adjustment, but for me it is, as I believe Fairfield will play a much better ballgame tonight. For technical support, the Stags fall into a 90% 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain teams off 20-point (or worse) losses. And they also fall into a 63.5% revenge system of mine which plays on certain underdogs of +3 (or more) points that suffered a bad loss to its opponent earlier in the season. Take the Stags + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Gardner-Webb v. Pittsburgh -13 | Top | 50-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Gardner-Webb. The Panthers are off to a solid 3-1 start after coming back from an early 10-point deficit to upset Northwestern, 71-70, in Evanston, on Wednesday. The Panthers showed a lot of moxie and competitive spirit on the road, as they trailed for all but the last 5.6 seconds of the game, before Justin Champagnie's game-winning dunk gave them the final margin of victory. The key for Pitt was its tough defense, as it held the explosive Wildcats to more than 31 points below their scoring average. And they're getting terrific offensive production across the board, as they're the only ACC school with three players ranked among the ACC's Top 10 in scoring. Those players are Au'Diese Toney (18.3 ppg), Xavier Johnson (18.0) and Champagnie (18.3). And Champagnie is also the only ACC player who is averaging a double-double, as he has pulled down 11 rebounds a game to lead the entire conference. This afternoon, Jeff Capel's men will welcome the Bulldogs to the Steel City, and the Bulldogs played two ACC member schools last season, and lost by 16 (N. Carolina) and 27 (Virginia Tech) points. We'll lay the points with Pitt, as I believe the momentum gathered from Wednesday's game will carry the Panthers forward at home today against an overmatched Big South conference school. Take Pitt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-11-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Kansas State -9 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over the Milwaukee Panthers. In its last game, Kansas State was stunned by Division II member Fort Hays State, 81-68. And, to make the loss even more ignominious, the Tigers were 0-3 this season prior to the win, and became the first Division 11 team to defeat a major conference opponent on the road in 20 years! The last team to pull off such a feat was Texas A&M Corpus Christi, when it bested Texas Tech, 86-80, on Dec. 18, 2000. Of course, after that embarrassing loss, the Red Raiders bounced back to win their next game, and they also covered the point spread in their next four subsequent lined games. I expect Kansas State to also bounce back tonight. They'll have the distinct advantage of playing a Panthers squad which hasn't taken the court yet this season. And Milwaukee ended last season on an 0-7 ATS run, and is 6-19-1 ATS its last 26. Meanwhile, K-State is 9-5 ATS its last 14 at home off a home loss. Lay the points with the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Gardner-Webb v. Western Kentucky -16 | Top | 84-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Gardner Webb. The Runnin' Bulldogs are playing their first game of the 2020 season tonight, and will travel to Bowling Green, KY to take on the Hilltoppers, who are 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS after dropping their 3rd straight game to the spread on Saturday (96-69, as a 42.5-point favorite). The Bulldogs return just two starters from last season, so they'll be at a disadvantage tonight vs. a Hilltoppers squad which returned all five starters, and will be playing its sixth game of the season. So, we'll play on Western Kentucky to get the $$$ tonight, as they're 28-1 SU and 20-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a game where they failed to cover by 6+ points. Meanwhile, Gardner-Webb is a horrible 0-7 ATS as an underdog of more than 12 points in the regular season vs. a foe off an ATS loss. Lay the points with the Hilltoppers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-09-20 | San Diego v. UCLA -17.5 | Top | 56-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over San Diego. The Toreros have had a late start to this 2020 campaign, as their early games -- in the Husky Classic -- were cancelled due to the coronavirus. That will place San Diego at a disadvantage tonight, given this will be UCLA's 5th game of the season. Even worse for Sam Scholl's troops: they return just two starters, while UCLA returned all five starters. The Bruins had a rough start to the season, as they lost, 73-58, at San Diego St. in their first game. And then they needed triple overtime to get by Pepperdine in Game #2. But they've gelled over their last two games -- 20+ point blowout wins over Seattle and California. I look for UCLA to make it three BLOWOUTS in a row on this Wednesday, as Pac-12 teams off back to back SU/ATS wins have cashed 69% vs. West Coast Conference foes. Lay the points with the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-09-20 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson -8 | Top | 71-79 | Push | 0 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights minus the points over Central Connecticut. These two teams played yesterday here, and the Blue Devils upset the Knights, 94-87, as a 9-point road underdog. That was the Northeast Conference opener for both teams, and we'll take the homestanding Knights in the rematch this afternoon. Dating back to 1990, home favorites have covered 56% off an upset home loss, if they were playing an opponent off an upset road win. And the Knights also fall into a 146-95 ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Syracuse v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Syracuse. To say that Rutgers has revenge would be an understatement. After all, Syracuse has won the last 13 meetings (dating back to when both teams were Big East schools). The good news for Rutgers -- at least for tonight's game -- is that teams have cashed 60.9% in non-conference games over the past 31 years if they had lost the last 7 games in the series, and were not getting 6+ points in the current game. Take Rutgers minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Central Arkansas v. St. Louis -21 | Top | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Central Arkansas. St. Louis is 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and has covered the spread by 11.5 ppg. And they won their previous game by 53 points! Over the last 31 years, favorites of more than 7 points off 3 SU/ATS wins to start the season have cashed 60% of the time. Additionally, the Billikens are 34-13 ATS at home off back to back point spread wins. Take St. Louis. |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Tennessee State v. Belmont -13.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Tennessee State. This is the Ohio Valley Conference opener for both teams. But a key difference is that it's also Tennessee State's season opener, while Belmont has already played four games. And these extra games in hand have enabled teams to cover the spread 60% of the time over the last 31 years when playing an opponent which was playing its first game. So, that bodes well for the Bruins tonight. As does the fact that the Tigers have covered just four of its last 18 conference games. Lay the points with Belmont. |
|||||||
12-07-20 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -14 | Top | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Eastern Washington. We played on Oregon in its last game, and easily got the $$$ with an 83-70 win over Seton Hall. That moved the 21st-ranked Ducks to 1-1 this season, and they'll play their home opener this evening against Big Sky Conference-member Eastern Washington. The Eagles have been competitive this season, but have yet to crack into the win column. They're 0-2 SU after two 3-point losses at Pac-12-member schools Washington St. and Arizona. We'll go against the Eagles tonight, as teams off back to back losses have covered just 34.4% since 1990 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win that were playing their home opener. That bodes well for Oregon. As does the fact that Oregon is 30-12 ATS its last 42 games, as well as 58-36-1 ATS at home its last 95 games vs. non-conference foes, provided the Ducks won their previous game. Lay the points with Dana Altman's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-04-20 | Oregon -3 v. Seton Hall | Top | 83-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Seton Hall. The Ducks were upset in their first game by Missouri, 83-75. But I love Dana Altman's men to bounce back tonight, as they're 12-3 ATS their last 15 off an upset loss, including 3-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes. And they're also 16-4 ATS their last 20 vs. non-conference opposition. Finally, the Ducks fall into a 74.3% ATS bounce-back system of mine which plays on certain team after being upset as a favorite in their previous game. Take the Ducks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
12-04-20 | Kent State v. Virginia -19.5 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Kent State. The Golden Flashes opened their season with a 90-41 blowout of Point Park. They held the Pioneers to just 28% shooting, and outrebounded them 55-28. But Kent now must now step up in class to face the defending (2019) national champion Cavaliers. Virginia is 2-1 on the young season, as it sandwiched a loss to San Francisco in between victories over Towson and St. Francis. The Cavaliers are 36-22 ATS in the regular season vs. non-conference foes, including 16-3 ATS when favored by 18+ points. And Kent falls into a negative 82-155 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit underdogs off blowout wins. Lay the points with Virginia. |
|||||||
12-04-20 | Southeastern Louisiana v. California Baptist -7.5 | Top | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana. These two teams actually met here just two days ago, and the Lions came away with an 81-80 upset win, as a 9-point road underdog. If there was a silver lining for Rick Croy's men, it's that they actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half prior to collapsing. And off that home upset loss, we'll lay the points with Cal Baptist, as they're 7-3 ATS off a loss (including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss), while the Lions are 1-5 ATS as an underdog vs. a foe off a SU loss. And the Lancers also fall into a super 88% ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points. |
|||||||
12-03-20 | Niagara v. Syracuse -21 | Top | 45-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Niagara. In its season opener, Syracuse defeated the Bryant Bulldogs, 85-84, which didn't enamor it to Las Vegas residents, as Syracuse was favored by 22.5 points in that game. Still, a win is a win, and Syracuse will now welcome cross-state rival Niagara to the Carrier Dome. The Purple Eagles haven't defeated the Orange in any of the last nine meetings, including a 71-57 loss last season. And this will be Niagara's first game of the season. We'll lay the points with Syracuse, as 14-point (or greater) favorites have covered 72% since 1990 after failing to cover the spread by more than 5 points, if they were now matched up against an opponent playing its first game of the season. Even better: Syracuse is a perfect 11-0 ATS as favorites of -4 (or more) points after failing to cover by 9+ in its previous game, while Niagara is 2-8 ATS its last 10 when getting 7+ points. Take the Orange. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-02-20 | Incarnate Word v. Wyoming -16 | Top | 83-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Incarnate Word. The Cardinals rebounded off their season-opening home loss to Rice to defeat Our Lady of the Lake, 84-71. They'll now play their first road game this season in Wyoming, which is 1-1 after getting upset by Texas Southern, 76-74, on Monday. The Cowboys were favored in that game by 10.5 points. But off that loss, we'll lay the double-digits with them tonight, as double-digit favorites have cashed 69% since 1990, if they were upset at home as a double-digit favorite in their previous game, and are now playing a non-conference foe off a double-digit home win. Take the Cowboys to blow out Incarnate Word. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
12-02-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -20.5 | Top | 54-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Arkansas State. The Tigers come home off back to back upset losses, and have been installed as double-digit favorites vs. an 0-2 Red Wolves team which also suffered an upset defeat its last time out. We'll lay the points with Memphis at home, as home teams, off back to back upset defeats, are 180-130 ATS vs. losing teams. And the Tigers are 36-16 ATS off 2+ losses, including 8-0-1 ATS its last nine if it was upset in its previous game. Take Memphis minus the points. |
|||||||
12-02-20 | Houston Baptist v. SMU -30.5 | Top | 75-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Houston Baptist. SMU comes into this game off back to back 30+ wins at home, while the Huskies check in off back to back 23+ point losses on the road. Since 1990, NCAA teams, off back to back home wins to start the season, that have a scoring margin of +30 (or more points), have covered 70% at home vs. foes off back to back losses. Take SMU to blow out Houston Baptist. |
|||||||
12-01-20 | Hartford v. Villanova -26 | Top | 53-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Hartford. The Wildcats were favored by 9.5 points, but were upset, 81-73, by Virginia Tech in their last game. But off that upset defeat, I love Jay Wright's men to come out extremely focused this afternoon, and expect them to blow out the Hawks. Indeed, Villanova's an awesome 41-18-1 ATS off a game where they failed to cover the point spread by 4+ points, including a perfect 14-0 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss that have an ATS win percentage greater than .455. And College Basketball teams have cashed 72.3% off an upset loss as a 9-point (or greater) favorite, if they were favored by 17+ points against an opponent off an ATS win. Lay the points with the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Maryland-Baltimore County +2 v. St Francis PA | Top | 80-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers over St. Francis (PA). The Red Flash upset Pittsburgh, 80-70, as a 16-point road underdog on Thursday. They return home this afternoon, and will welcome the UMBC Retrievers to DeGol Arena. We'll play against St. Francis today, as non-ACC teams off double-digit upset wins over ACC Conference schools have had letdowns in the next game, when playing at home, or on a neutral court, and favored (or PK). They've cashed just 14 of 50 since 1990. Take Maryland Baltimore County. |
|||||||
11-28-20 | VMI v. Penn State -19 | Top | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over VMI. The Keydets won, 90-63, at home to open their 2020 campaign. But we'll fade them in Happy Valley this afternoon, as double-digit road underdogs have cashed just 39% off a 25-point home win to open a seasons, if they scored 85+ in that home victory. And Big 10 teams have gone 47-17 ATS in their season openers at home when favored by 14+ points. Take the Nittany Lions. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
11-28-20 | UMass Lowell v. Illinois State | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds over the Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks. UMass Lowell upset San Francisco, 76-68, to open its season. But the River Hawks now fall into a negative 45-85 ATS "letdown" system of mine based on that upset win. And the River Hawks are also a poor 7-16 ATS their last 23 off an ATS win. Take Illinois State. |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Drexel v. Pittsburgh -8.5 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Drexel. The Panthers stubbed their toe in their home opener when they lost to St. Francis (PA), 80-70, as a 16-point home favorite. But off that defeat, we'll play on Pitt to rebound at home on this Saturday afternoon. Indeed, NCAA teams off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 14+ points have cashed 17 of 18 at home, or on neutral courts, if their opponent wasn't off an upset loss, itself. Additionally, Drexel is 0-8-1 ATS its last nine away from home when priced from +4 to +12 points. Take the Panthers minus the points over the Dragons. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Hartford v. Connecticut -21.5 | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies minus the points over Hartford. UConn rolled in its first game, a 102-75 win over Central Connecticut St. And they'll try to make it two-in-a-row vs. in-state rivals on this Friday. This will be the first meeting between these schools since 2008. We'll lay the points with UConn, as it's 14-7-1 ATS its last 22 home games. Also, double-digit home favorites off a 25-point (or greater) win in their opener have cashed 63% vs. opponents playing their first game of the season. Finally, Hartford falls into a negative 82-159 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in their season opener. Lay the points with Connecticut. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Boise State v. Houston -12 | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Boise State. The Cougars were without their star player -- Caleb Mills -- on Wednesday, yet didn't need him in an 89-45 blowout of Lamar. The good news is that he'll be back on the court this afternoon. We'll take the Cougars minus the points, as they fall into a 93-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit wins. And Houston's also 31-13 ATS at home off a double-digit home win. Lay it. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
11-26-20 | Utah State -2 v. South Dakota State | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over South Dakota State. Utah State lost its first game of this Crossover Classic in Sioux Falls, SD. But we'll take the Aggies to bounce back on Sunday, as they've cashed 70% over the last 31 seasons when they were playing back to back games away from home, and were upset in the first game, and now playing an opponent also off a loss. They're also 10-5-1 ATS as a favorite off an upset defeat. Take the Aggies to blow out the Jackrabbits. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
11-26-20 | San Francisco -8 v. Towson | Top | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Towson. Both of these teams come into this afternoon's game off a loss yesterday at the Mohegan Sun Bubbleville Tournament. Towson was blown out by 35 points by Virginia, while the Dons were surprised, 76-68, by the UMass-Lowell River Hawks. San Francisco was favored by double-digits in that game. And teams that were upset in their season opener as double-digit favorites have rebounded to cover 62.2% over the last 31 seasons. Lay the points with San Francisco. |
|||||||
11-26-20 | Nevada v. Nebraska -3.5 | Top | 69-66 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Nevada. The Huskers are hosting this Golden Window Classic, and they got their 2020 campaign off to a great start last night with a 47-point blowout of McNeese State. One of the things I love to do in early season college hoops is play on home teams when they host a tournament, when they're off a SU/ATS win in their home opener, and they're favored in Game 2 against an opponent which was also off a SU/ATS win the day before. Our home teams have cashed 75% since 1990 in these games. Lay the points with Nebraska. |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Miami. After covering the point spread in Game 1, the Lakers have failed to cover the spread in each of the four next games. On Sunday, the Lakers will attempt (for the 2nd time) to win their 17th NBA championship. In Game 5, Anthony Davis re-aggravated a heel injury, but he swears he will be fine for Game 6. One of the things I love to do when betting on the NBA is play on .710 (or better) teams off an upset playoff loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite, provided they don't trail in a 7-game series. Since 1990, these teams have rebounded to cash 61% ATS. Even better: the Lakers are a solid 16-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points. Meanwhile, LeBron James' teams are 22-11 ATS in the Playoffs as a favorite following a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. And Miami's 4-9 ATS in the Playoffs when playing on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak. Lay the points in Game 6 with the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. We stayed away from Game 4, and it went right down to the wire, with Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover the 7.5-point spread for Miami. We'll step in and take the points in this "do-or-die" game for Miami, as it falls into a 59-33 ATS NBA system of mine. What we want to do is play on any .576 (or better) team in the Playoffs if they were off a loss, and an underdog of +7 (or more) points. Since 1990, these teams have gone 77-49-2, 61.1% ATS, including 10-4 ATS in the NBA Finals. Even better: Erik Spoelstra's men are 32-11-1 ATS off a loss, including 5-0 ATS when getting 6 or more points. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat +9.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have won the first two games by double-digits to take a commanding 2-games-to-none series lead. Since no NBA team has ever successfully come back from a 3-0 series deficit, tonight's game is a "virtual must-win" for Miami. We'll grab the points with the Heat, as .605 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 60% in the Playoffs over the last 31 years off back to back double-digit defeats. Even better: the Heat are an awesome 48-24-2 ATS off back to back losses, including 34-8 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win. |
|||||||
10-02-20 | Heat +10 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Push | 0 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. This NBA Finals match-up had the potential to be a fascinating series. Unfortunately, the Heat sustained injuries in Game 1, and now will be hard-pressed to upset the Lakers. But I love Miami + the points in this Game 2, as the adjusted point spread has more-than-compensated for the concomitant loss of talent. And one of the things I love to do when betting NBA playoffs is to take a team in Game 2 when it's getting significantly more (or laying significantly less) points in Game 2 than it did in Game 1. Sometimes this happens due to injuries (like in this game), while other times, the line gets adjusted off an unexpected result in Game 1. But what I've found is that it generally pays (87% since 1990) to play on the team getting a better number in Game 2 than in Game 1. Likewise, teams off a loss in Game 1 have gone 48-31 ATS in Game 2 when they were an underdog of more than nine points. This will be a competitive game tonight. Take Miami + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-24-20 | Lakers -6 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver. The Nuggets got back into the series with a blowout win over Los Angeles on Tuesday. We stayed away from that Game, but will jump back into the fray tonight, and play on the Los Angeles Lakers. Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams are a poor 37-57-3 ATS after upsetting their opponent in the previous playoff game. Even better: LeBron James teams are a jaw-dropping 21-0 straight-up, and 17-4 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs vs. foes off back to back ATS wins. Lay the points with the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Los Angeles. We played on the Lakers in Game 1, and were rewarded with a 126-114 victory, as a 7-point favorite. We'll switch gears tonight, and grab the points, as .600 (or better) underdogs, at the quarterfinal round forward, have cashed 60% in Game 2 of an NBA series off a SU loss in Game 1. Additionally, the Nuggets are a terrific 36-13-1 ATS when not favored by 3+ points, if they lost by more than five points in their previous game, including 12-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Take the Nuggets + the points in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver. The Nuggets come into this game off back to back upset wins to defeat the Clippers in seven games. Unfortunately for Denver, NBA teams off back to back upset wins have only cashed the opening game of a series eight of 29 games since 1991. That doesn't bode well for Denver. Nor does the fact that LeBron James' teams have gone 50-27 ATS in his career when they were favored by 2+ points, provided they were not leading in the series. Finally, teams off back to back playoff wins have only covered 24 of 63 games if they were an underdog away from home, and they were off back to back covers by 10+ points. Take Los Angeles minus the points in Game 1. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami. The Celtics lost Game 1 in overtime, 117-114, and now trail the Miami Heat 1-0 in the series. We'll lay the points with Boston as it's 23-13 ATS when it trails by exactly one game in a Playoff series, including 16-5 ATS away from home. Even better: Boston is 50-30 ATS its last 80 vs. the Heat, including 26-9 ATS when the line was between +4.5 and -4.5 points. And, finally, teams off a SU/ATS win to open a series have cashed just 36% over the last 31 years if they scored more than 115 points in their Game 1 victory. Take Boston minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver. The Clippers surely did not expect this quarterfinals series to last this long. But here we are, and the Clippers now have their backs against the wall. I expect them to react well to the pressure, and to take care of business tonight. It's true that Denver showed its mettle by coming back from large deficits twice in the last two games. Still, NBA teams are a dreadful 26-46 ATS off back to back upset wins, if they were an underdog of 8+ points in those two victories. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, if priced between -4 and -8 points. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Clippers -8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, in EARLY action on this Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver. The #3-seeded Nuggets upset Los Angeles in Game 5 to force this sixth game. But it's still an uphill climb for Denver, as it trails 3-games-to-2 in the series. We'll go against Denver this afternoon, as #3-seeded Playoff teams are a dismal 35-57-3 ATS off an upset playoff win. And the Clippers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS their last 11 away from home, if they lost their previous game, and are favored by 4 (or more) points. Lay it! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Boston Celtics. The Raptors were blown out by 22 points on Monday night, so they are in a MUST-WIN situation tonight. I love the Raptors to bounce back, as they've gone 11-1 SU/ATS off a loss by more than 11 points. Additionally, .600 (or better) teams have cashed 79% in Game 6 of the quarterfinals, if down 3-games-to-2, and off a double-digit loss. Grab the points with the Raptors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-07-20 | Clippers -9 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets. The Clippers were upset by the #3-seeded Nuggets, 110-101, on Saturday. But off that upset win, we will fade Denver in this Game 3. Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams have been awful off an upset playoff win, and especially when installed as an underdog of more than 5 points. In that role, they've gone 2-25 straight-up, and 7-19-1 ATS. Even better, Kawhi Leonard's teams have gone 24-1 straight-up, and 19-6 ATS their last 25 off a loss by more than eight points, including 7-0 ATS their last seven. Lay the points with Doc Rivers' men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Houston. In LeBron James' storied career, his teams (Cleveland, Miami, Los Angeles) have been terrific in the NBA Playoffs when they were favored by at least 2 points, and were not winning the series. Dating back to his first season in the Playoffs (2006), LeBron's teams have gone 61-14 straight-up, and 48-27 ATS, including 7-0 straight-up and 5-2 ATS when down 1 game to none. That's one reason I love LeBron & Co. to bounce back off their dismal effort on Friday. Another is that teams seeded #3 (or worse) and installed as underdogs of more than 5 points away from home, have covered just 71 of 183 games off an upset playoff win. Take the Lakers in Game #2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-06-20 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Miami. The Heat will aim to go 8-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs with a win and cover this afternoon. But their long SU/ATS win streak has led to a big movement in this point spread. If Miami was an underdog once again (they were a 5-point underdog in the series' first three games), I would consider grabbing the points. But they're a small favorite now. Consider that underdogs up 3-games-to-none have gone 14-4-1 ATS. However, small favorites of less than 3 points (or PK) have only covered 4 of 13 when up 3-games-to-none. We'll grab the value with Milwaukee, and fade the Heat. For technical support, also consider that, over the last 29 years, sub-.666 teams off an upset win that had covered their previous seven games have cashed just 47 of 139 games. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Houston Rockets. The Rockets needed 7 games to put away a game Oklahoma City squad. And their reward for that victory is a date against the #1-seeded Lakers. In contrast to Houston, Los Angeles had a relatively easy time against the #8-seeded Trail Blazers (though the Lakers were aided, somewhat, by key injuries to Portland). We'll fade Mike D'Antoni's men, as underdogs of +6 to +11.5 points have cashed just 32% in Game 1 of a series, if their previous Playoff series went the distance. And #1-seeds are an awesome 67% in Game 1 of a quarterfinals series, if priced from -4.5 to -11.5 points. It's true that the Rockets have won the last two meetings vs. the Lakers. But L.A. is a staggering 38-3 straight-up when favored, and playing with double-revenge, including 5-0 ATS their last five; 11-2 ATS their last 13; and 70.9% ATS since Feb. 18, 2003. Take the Lakers minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Heat have stormed out to a 2-games-to-none series lead, so this Game 3 becomes a virtual 'must-win' for the Bucks, given that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-games-to-none deficit. We'll lay the points with the Bucks, as favorites of more than 4 points have cashed 70.3 since 1990 in the quarterfinals, if they were down 2 games in the series. And, since Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the league, the Bucks are 39-28 ATS off exactly two losses. Lay the points with Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-03-20 | Raptors -1 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Push | 0 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over Boston. The #2-seeded Raptors are down 2-games-to-none, and are in a "virtual" must-win situation tonight, given that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a 7-game series. We'll take Toronto, as NBA favorites off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and down 2-games-to-none in a series, have covered 60.8% over the last 30 years. Even better: the Raptors are an awesome 44-19 ATS off exactly two SU/ATS losses. Take the Raptors in Game 3. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Heat have taken three of four vs. Milwaukee this season. But I love the Bucks to bounce back off their Game 1 upset loss on Monday. Since Mike Budenholzer assumed the head coaching duties, Milwaukee is 35-9 straight-up, and 30-14 ATS off a loss, including 19-5 ATS off a loss by 7+ points. Even better: in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs, underdogs of more than 4 points, off back to back wins by more than 10 points, are a horrid 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS. Finally, the Heat have covered just 1 of their last 16 when facing a revenge-minded foe off an upset loss. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
|||||||
09-01-20 | Jazz +1 v. Nuggets | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets pulled even with Utah in this series with a 119-107 win in Game 6. Now, after being an underdog in Games 3 through 6, Denver's been installed as a small favorite for Game 7 (though not as big as a favorite as it was in Games 1 + 2). The Nuggets are a horrid 0-17 ATS away from home as a favorite (or PK) off a win by more than eight points, including a blowout, 19-point loss in Game 2 of this series. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a super 43-25 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 18-6 ATS when playing with revenge. Take the Jazz + the points in this decisive Game 7. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -1 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Boston Celtics. The Celtics snapped Toronto's 8-game winning streak on Sunday, when they upset Toronto, 112-94, as a 2-point underdog. That extended Boston's current win streak to 5 games. But turnabout is fair play, and we'll look for the Raptors to level this series at 1-game apiece this evening. Toronto is a super 32-15-1 ATS off an ATS loss, including 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge. And it's 11-0 SU/ATS off a loss by more than 11 points, and covered those 11 games by an average of 9.36 points. Number 3 seeds, like Boston, are an awful 32-57 ATS off an upset playoff win vs. their opponent. Lay the points with the Raptors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-23-20 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Utah Jazz. The Nuggets have been demolished over the last two ball games, as they've given up 124 points in back-to-back games to the Jazz. On the other hand, they also gave up more than 124 points in Game 1, but they won that game (135-125) in overtime. Down 2-games-to-1, we'll grab the points with the underdog Nuggets, as teams down 2-1 in a series have cashed 80.9% of the time off a loss by more than 22 points. Even better: Denver's an awesome 30-16 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more. Take the Nuggets to level this series at 2 games apiece. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over Houston. The Thunder were actually favored by a point in Game 1. But after falling behind 2-games-to-none to James Harden & Co., the Thunder now find themselves installed as a small underdog in Game 3. I believe it's an overreaction, so we'll step in and take the points with OKC. Admittedly, the Thunder have lost their last three games SU/ATS. But Oklahoma City is a tremendous 29-9 ATS away from home when they were on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak. And prior to dropping these two Playoff games to Houston, Oklahoma City had covered the last five meetings (and nine of the last 11). Since 1990, NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses by 13+ points have covered 59%, so we'll grab the points with the Thunder on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-21-20 | Clippers -5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Dallas. The Clippers lost Game 2, 127-114, as a 5-point favorite. But they had won (and covered) the previous five games in this series. I love Los Angeles to bounce back tonight in Game 3, as NBA teams that failed to cover Game 2 by 18+ points, have rebounded to cover Game 3 58% of the time since 1990. Doc Rivers' men are 27-13 their last 40 when playing with revenge from a defeat earlier in the season. And they're an awesome 30-10 ATS their last 40 off a straight-up loss, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when priced from -4 to -7 points. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-20-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers. Damian Lillard & Co. upset the Lakers in Game 1, 100-93. But Portland's never performed well off a Playoff victory, as it's 25-45-3 ATS, including 5-17 ATS when getting more than four points. Meanwhile, LeBron James' teams have gone 47-26 ATS in the Playoffs if they weren't winning the series, and were favored by two or more points. And his teams have also gone 97-66 ATS in his career when favored, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. It's true that the Lakers have dropped their last six to the spread. But NBA teams have gone 13-2 ATS in the Playoffs when priced from -4 to -9.5 points, if they were on a 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Take the L.A. Lakers. Good luck, always....Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-20-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Orlando. The Magic stunned Milwaukee, 122-110, as a 13.5-point underdog on Tuesday. But off that defeat, we'll lay the points with the Bucks in Game 2. Since Mike Budenholzer took over as head coach, the Bucks are an awesome 34-9 SU and 29-14 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 18-5 ATS when priced from -7 to -13 points! Moreover, teams that owned a win percentage at least .05 better than their opponent, have cashed over 69% since 1990 off a loss to start the opening round of the Playoffs. Meanwhile, the Magic are a dreadful 3-12 ATS away from home as an underdog of 3+ points following a Playoff win vs. their opponent. Take the Bucks to blow out Orlando. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-19-20 | Jazz +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Denver. The Jazz handed their backers a really bad beat on Monday, as they fell in overtime by 10 points, as a 4.5-point underdog. Still, Donovan Mitchell was brilliant in defeat, as he led the way with 57 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists. Remarkably, the Nuggets, who have won greater than 65% of their games the past two seasons, are a jaw-dropping 0-16 ATS their last 16 away from home as a favorite off a win by more than eight points! Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-19-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Toronto. In Game 1, the Raptors smacked the Nets, 134-110. But I love taking double-digit underdogs off a SU/ATS double-digit loss vs. foes off a SU/ATS double-digit win, as they're 474-374 ATS. Even better: The Nets are a solid 42-25 ATS as an underdog when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 12-0 ATS when getting more than 9 points. Take Brooklyn + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana. These two teams met at the conclusion of the regular season, and we played on the Pacers in their blowout victory. That was also Indiana's second straight upset win heading into these playoffs. Unfortunately, over the last 30 seasons, NBA teams off back to back upset wins to end the regular season generally do poorly in Game 1 of the Playoffs, as they've covered just 33% of the time. Also, Erik Spoelstra's teams are 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS when favored in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Lay the points with Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-14-20 | Heat v. Pacers +1 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 1 h 35 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers over the Miami Heat. These two teams met four days ago, and Miami got the better of Indy, 114-92, as a 4-point favorite. These two teams will also play each other in the first round of the Playoffs, so this is a "tune-up" for both squads. I expect Indiana will want to gain a measure of confidence, and play better this afternoon than it did on Monday. Indiana also falls into a 228-148 ATS revenge system of mine, based on the fact it has lost all three meetings to the Heat this season. Take the Pacers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-13-20 | Spurs -8 v. Jazz | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Utah. Although the Spurs can still reach the playoffs for the 23rd consecutive season, their chances to do so are small, as they need at least two of three other teams (Memphis, Phoenix, Portland) to lose today, while they win their own game vs. the Jazz. By the time this game tips off, the Spurs will know whether they've been knocked out, or if they're still alive. But even if they're knocked out, I still expect them to put forth a solid effort to end the season on a high note, because that's what a Gregg Popovich team would do. The Spurs fall into 115-55 and 98-45 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-12-20 | Heat -3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-116 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Heat come into this game off a 114-92 win over Indiana, while the Thunder were blown out, 128-101 by the Phoenix Suns. We played on Phoenix in that game, as the Suns have been "playing to win." And the fact that OKC was annihilated gives an indication as to what its mindset is at this late stage of the NBA season. I expect a similar result tonight. We'll lay the points with the much more interested club (Miami), which also falls into 81-37 and 115-54 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-11-20 | Blazers -3 v. Mavs | Top | 134-131 | Push | 0 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Dallas. If the Blazers can win their final two games, they will make the Playoffs "play-in" series, so there's great incentive tonight -- much more so than the Mavericks possess, since Dallas is guaranteed to be either the #6 or #7 seed. Portland plays with revenge from a 133-125 defeat in January, but McCollum and Nurkic were out for that game. Both will be on the floor tonight. We'll lay the points with the Trail Blazers, as they fall into a 128-63 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a "late season" system which is 79-36 ATS. Take Portland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns -5 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Oklahoma City. This 8-game re-start schedule in Orlando was, of course, necessary for several reasons. The most important were that the players needed to shake off the rust to prepare for the playoffs, and teams on the outside-looking-in needed a final opportunity to make a run at the post-season. And that last reason has impelled the Phoenix Suns to play their best basketball of the year. Phoenix is the lone unbeaten team at Disney World, with a 5-0 SU/ATS record. And it retains a shot to make the play-in round, if it wins its final three games. The first of those is this afternoon against a Thunder squad which blew out Washington yesterday. Phoenix will thus have an advantage in terms of rest. And NBA teams playing with extra rest have gone 14-9 ATS at Disney. We'll lay the points with the Suns, as we look for them to win (and cover) their 6th straight game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-08-20 | Clippers v. Blazers +4 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. In the preseason, I released two NBA futures plays: the Clippers to win the Western Conference, and the Bucks to win the Eastern Conference. And I still believe that will be the Finals match-up in October. The Clippers, for the most part, have nothing to play for in their remaining four games. They're 2 games ahead of Denver for the #2 seed, and have a game vs. the Nuggets on Wednesday. Los Angeles could go 1-3 in its final four games, but would still get the #2 seed if it defeated Denver next week. So, that's pretty much the highest priority game on L.A.'s schedule. Portland, on the other hand, needs to win each of its last four games because, if it slips up just once, it could miss the Playoffs. Portland, thus, has a big edge in the "motivation' department this afternoon. And it also falls into a 212-132 ATS revenge system of mine, as it lost by 20 points at Los Angeles when the two teams last met. The Trail Blazers are 9-0-2 ATS their last 11 (and 22-7-2 ATS their last 31) when playing with revenge from a loss by 12+ points, if they weren't getting more than 4 points. Take the Trail Blazers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-06-20 | Heat v. Bucks -9 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami. The Bucks pulled a rare clunker in their last game, as they lost outright as an 18.5-point favorite to Brooklyn. It was the 3rd biggest NBA upset in the past 30 seasons! But off that defeat, I love Mike Budenholzer's men to bounce back this afternoon, as his Milwaukee teams are 32-7 straight-up and 27-12 ATS off a loss, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -9 to -11 points. It also will help Milwaukee that Budenholzer has promised to play his starters more than on Tuesday, when none played more than 20 minutes. The Heat are a poor 15-26 ATS off a win this season. Take the Bucks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-04-20 | Rockets -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Portland. The Rockets are 2-0 in Walt Disney World, and have defeated two very good teams (Milwaukee, Dallas). Tonight, they'll get a relative breather when they take on Portland. The Blazers have struggled to a 28-37 ATS mark this season, and are 24-38 ATS their last 62 when priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points. Meanwhile, Houston plays with double-revenge, and is 20-7 ATS its last 27 when playing with double-revenge. Take the Rockets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-04-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Boston. We played against the Heat yesterday, and got the $$$ with Toronto. But we will switch gears and grab the points with Erik Spoelstra's men this evening, as Miami is 17-6 ATS off a loss this season. And the Heat fall into a great 109-46 ATS system of mine which plays on certain unrested teams off a loss vs. foes off a win. Grab the points. |
|||||||
08-04-20 | Magic -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Indiana. The Magic are playing great ball, with 5 straight wins (and six straight covers), and fall into a 123-87 ATS system of mine which plays are certain revenge-minded squads. With Orlando, indeed, playing with revenge from a 111-106 defeat, we'll lay the points with the Magic. |
|||||||
08-03-20 | Spurs v. 76ers -7 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs moved to 2-0 since the restart yesterday when they upset the Grizzlies, 108-106, as a 3-point underdog. San Antonio is trying to make the playoffs for the 23rd consecutive year, but it still has an uphill battle to qualify for the post-season in 2020. After opening its Walt Disney schedule against two teams below .500 (Kings, Grizzlies), the Spurs' schedule will be difficult from this point forward, with games against the Sixers, Jazz (twice), Rockets, Nuggets and Pelicans. The Spurs are an awful 11-24-1 ATS off a win vs. foes off an upset loss, including 2-10 ATS as an underdog of less than nine points. And this is a horrible match-up for San Antone, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles are out, and it will have no one on the inside to guard Joel Embiid. Take the 76ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-03-20 | Raptors -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Miami. The Raptors come into this game off a big win over the Lakers -- their fifth straight, overall. But I don't foresee a letdown tonight, as Toronto will be seeking major revenge from a beatdown administered by Miami back in January. In that previous meeting between these two teams, the Raptors had their worst offensive game since 2015, as they shot just 31% from the floor, and scored just 76 points, in an 8-point defeat. But the Raptors are a spectacular 14-1 ATS away from home (including 10-0 ATS their last 10) when they are matched up against a team that held them to 82 or less points in the previous meeting. And Toronto also falls into a 106-47 ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points with Nick Nurse's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Mavs absolutely collapsed in the final minute of Friday night's game vs. Houston. They led by seven points with 45 seconds left, but lost in overtime, 153-149. To put that defeat in perspective, consider that NBA teams were 711-2 in the previous 713 games when leading by 7+ points with a minute or less to go in regulation! So, Dallas will seek to redeem itself tonight vs. a Phoenix team which blew out the Mavs, 133-104, in the last meeting. The Mavericks are an awesome 47-28-1 ATS off a loss when playing with revenge vs. a foe off a straight-up win. And Phoenix is 2-9 ATS its last 11 when playing a revenge-minded foe. Lay the points with Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
03-11-20 | North Carolina v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 53-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange over North Carolina. The Tar Heels blew out Virginia Tech yesterday to advance to this 2nd round game vs. Syracuse on Wednesday night. Unfortunately, the Tar Heels will be at a significant disadvantage tonight since the Orange will be well-rested, as they have not played since Saturday. And rested ACC Conference teams have gone 34-18 ATS vs. unrested foes in the ACC Tournament, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were playing with revenge, and not favored by 9+ points. Take Syracuse to blow out North Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|||||||
03-11-20 | Appalachian State v. Texas State -7 | Top | 68-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over Appalachian St. These two Sun Belt Conference rivals met twice earlier this season, with each team winning SU/ATS on its own home court. This Quarterfinals match-up will be played in San Marcos, so the Bobcats will have the advantage -- especially given that they blew out the Mountaineers, 82-57, here, earlier this year. The Bobcats fall into one of my favorite Tourney systems, which is 47-14 ATS since 1990. That angle plays on certain home teams in conference tourney games vs. foes off wins. And the Bobcats also fall into 96-47, 160-114 and 76-47 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off defeats to end their regular season. Lay the points with Texas State. |