Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots 8:20 PM EST, Sunday Night Football 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots +2.5 points. The Dolphins and Chargers each recorded 30 first downs in their Week 1 matchup (which Miami won, 36-34). It was the eighth regular-season NFL game since 1960 in which each team had 30 or more first downs and only the sixth such non-overtime game in that time. Mac Jones had a career-high 54 pass attempts in the Patriots' Week 1 loss to the Eagles. Including postseason play, the Patriots are 0-8 in games in which Jones has thrown 38 or more passes (16-9 when he has fewer pass attempts). From the predictive model, we are looking for the Patriots to throw 30 or fewer passes and either gain more than 100 RY or gain more rushing yards than the Dolphins, and have no more than a single turnover. In past home games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 37-1 SU and 30-7-1 ATS for 81% winning under Belichick. The Dolphins are 4-40 SU, 4-39-1 ATS when allowing these measures since 2000. Since 2000, the Patriots are 18=7 SU and 19-6 ATS when coming off a home loss in which they threw 35 or more passes under Belichick. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys OVER 38 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys 4:25 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the OVER 38.5 points and is a valid bet up to 40 points Optional 5-Unit bet opportunity on the NY Jets plus 9.5 points If there is any game prop that if there is a pick six interception return, I like that a lot for pizza money Betting the Over with a team coming off a blowout win of 35 or more points over a divisional foe and had more rushing attempts than passing attempts has produced a 36-23 record good for 61% winning bets over since 1990. If the foe (Jets) is not from the same conference, the Over has gone 11-4 for 73% winning bets. The Jets went 2-7 over the first nine matchups against the Cowboys but have won their last three games against Dallas since 2011. The Jets have a perfect record in that time against just one other team, the Washington Commanders and a 3-0 record. The Jets beat the Bills on Monday despite a 10-point deficit in the third quarter. The last time the Jets had a comeback win when trailing at any point in the second half by at least 10 points during Week 1 was in 2011, a 14-point comeback against Dallas. In case you were wondering, teams that held their previous opponent to six or fewer points on 12 or more drives and now playing in a game with a total between 37.5 and 43.5 points are 31-37 SU and 21-43-4 ATS for 33%. That folks, means we are fading the Cowboys. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +7.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco vs LA Rams 4:05 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams +7.5 points and a little sprinkle on the money line. The 49ers are just 5-20 ATS following a great defensive effort in which they allowed 50 or fewer rushing yards. They are 14-28-1 ATS when on the road and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 10 points. They are 23-42 ATS in road games following a win by 14 or more points. Teams playing in weeks 2 through 4 that are coming off a road win against a divisional foe are 40-14 SU for 74% and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home, the record moves higher to 33-9 SU for 79% winning bets and 28-13-1 ATS for 68% winning tickets over the past 10 seasons. Puka Nacua became the fifth player in the last 60 years to record 10+ receptions in his NFL debut, along with Sid Banks in 1964 (13), Keke Coutee in 2018 (11), Anquan Boldin in 2003 (10) and Earl Cooper in 1980 (10). The 49ers held the Steelers to only seven points in Week 1, generating five sacks and two interceptions. The only other season opener in the last 60 years that San Francisco's defense hit all these marks was in 2003 (7 pts allowed, 5 sacks, 3 INTs). The next game they faced the Rams on the road and lost that game 27-24. San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 46.5 points Betting the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points, with the road team coming off a game in which they and their foe both had 27 or more first downs has earned a 13-23 SU record for 36%, 14-22 ATS for 39%, and 26-10 Over for 72% winners. Plus, if the game is a divisional showdown, the record soars to an amazing 13-3 OVER for 81% winners since 2000. Tannehill posted his worst passer rating in Tennessee's 16-15 loss in New Orleans, which also marked just the third game of his career and first since his rookie season with three interceptions and no touchdown passes. The Chargers (0-1) have their own motivation. They haven't won in their past two trips to Nashville and are coming off a 36-34 loss to Miami where they gave up a league-high 466 yards passing. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Chargers and Titans to combine for more than 700 yards of offense. In past games when the Chargers and their foe gained over 700 total yards has seen the OVER go 127-39 for 77% and the Titans have seen the OVER go 98-26 for 79% winners and these are projections without Eckler in the game. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons 8-Unit Best Bet on the Packers plus 2.5 points 1:00 PM EST Betting against non-playoff teams that won their last two games of the previous season and are favorites of not more than 6.5 points in weeks 2 through 4 have gone 7-15 SU and 4-18 ATS for 18% winners and failing to cover the spread by an average 6 points per game over the past 10 seasons. Falcons are 3-17 ATS in home games coming off a double-digit win. Green Bay (1-0) faces the Falcons (1-0) on Sunday, and their QB Jordan Love will be looking to build on the solid numbers he put up in a 38-20 victory at Chicago. He threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns in his second career start after backing up Rodgers the last three seasons. The Falcons find themselves in strange territory after opening the season with a 24-10 victory over Carolina. For the first time since the end of the 2017 season, Atlanta has a winning record. The Falcons are a young team that remains uncertain and in a rebuild mode. However, the Packers have the potential under Love, how got to study, watch, and learn from the departed Aaron Rogers and that showed immensely in Week 1. The Falcons are building around their own young quarterback, Desmond Ridder, who passed for only 115 yards against the Panthers. Most notably, top receiver Drake Young failed to make a catch and was targeted only once and look for the Packers defense to minimize his catches today. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jaguars plus the points Consider betting 6.5 units preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 1.5 units if the Chiefs score a TD first or the betting line gets to +7.5 during the first half of action. Betting on home teams coming off a double-digit win to a divisional foe, total is 50 or more points and was in the playoffs in the previous season have produced a 34-6 SU record, 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Jags head coach Pederson is a remarkable 15-4 ATS as a home dog for his career and 13-4 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points for his career. Supporting a sprinkle on the money line is the fact that teams coming off a road win against a divisional foe in the first four weeks of the regular season have gone 40-14 SU, and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 years. No Super Bowl winning team has started out the following season 0-2 since the 1999 Denver Broncos, who were in rebuild mode after their legendary QB John Elway retired. The Chiefs fell to the Lions in Week 1, making them the second defending champions since 2000 to lose their season opener to a team that missed the playoffs the previous year. The 2012 Giants lost to the Cowboys in their season opener after winning Super Bowl XLVI. The Giants went on to a dismal 9-7 record, 7-8-1 ATS in 2012. The Jaguars have a great coach in Doug Pederson, who won the 2017 Super Bowl as the herd coach of the Eagles and their roster is built to make a run for the AFC Championship game. |
|||||||
09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +5.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Tennessee vs Florida
7:30 PM EST, Saturday, September 16
With a total of 58.5 points and a line favoring the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers by 6 points implies a 32-26 Volunteer win. The scoring has the potential to be quite volatile with many lead changes, which will provide great betting opportunities as well. So, consider betting 6-Units preflop and then add 1-Unit if Tennessee scores a touchdown first (not a field goal or safety) or if Tennessee gets out to a 10-0 lead having scored a FG first. Or simply add the 2-units if the price makes Florida a double-digit underdog at any point during the first half.
Betting on teams ranked in the Top-20 (not Top-25) that are road favorites of 4.5 to 9.5 points and facing a conference foe in the first four weeks of the regular season has gone 29-11 SU (73%), but just 13-27 ATS for 33% winning bets. So, fading these ranked false favorites is a great betting opportunity. If the game occurs in the SEC conference, the home dog is an amazing and highly profitable 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets sine 1994 and has not lost ATS since 2010 going a perfect 10-0 ATS for 100% winners.
No. 11 Tennessee opens Southeastern Conference play on the road Saturday night against a Florida offense that gained nearly 1,100 yards combined in their last two meetings. Tennessee defeated Florida last season, 38-33, after losing 16 of the previous 17 matchups against the Gators. This will be the first matchup the Volunteers are ranked in the AP Poll and the Gators are not since October 2, 1971, when Tennessee was then No. 12. Last week against the McNeese State Cowboys, Trevor Etienne, Montrell Johnson and Treyaun Webb became the first FBS trio this season to each record at least 10 rushes, 70 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in a single game. This is the only such game for the Gators over the past 25 seasons. The last time Tennessee visited the Swamp on Sept. 25, 2021, Florida held the No. 11 ranking and rolled up 505 yards of offense in a 38-14 victory. The predictive models and applications. Suggest that Florida will score 27 or more points and have at least a three-minute edge in time-of-possession and run at least 8 more plays then Tennessee. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures led Florida to a 24-1 record, 18-7 ATS for 72% winners and a 16-9 Over result. In past games in which Tennessee allowed these measures led them to a 4-21 SU record and 4-20-1 ATS mark for just 17% winning bets including an 18-6-1 Over result. |
|||||||
09-14-23 | Vikings +6 v. Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles 8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings +7.5 points 8:20 PM EST Betting on road teams in the first five weeks of the season in a matchup where both teams are playing on a short week, both teams had no individual player having more than 19 rushing attempts in the previous game have gone 16-14 SU, 18-10-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If our dog is priced between a 1 and 7-point underdog produces an 8-9 SU, 12-5 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Betting road underdogs that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and facing a host that committed no more than a single turnover in their previous games has earned an outstanding 45-20-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. In 2022, this system went 14-3 ATS for 82% winners. In 2021, it went 11-7 ATS for 61% winners. In 2020, it went 9-1 ATS for 90% winners. In 2019, it went 11-9-1 ATS for 55% winners. Point is that this system has generated tremendous results over the course of a season and remember that this system has had 20 ATS losses over the past five seasons. So, on any betting opportunity, it is exactly that – an OPPORTUNITY and not a LOCK. Betting against the previous season Super Bowl loser in weeks 2 through 4 and facing a foe that is coming off an upset loss are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 13 PPG over the past 10 seasons. The Eagle’s defense is banged up and they were unable to generate any significant pass rush last week against the Patriots. Giving Cousins time to throw the ball and having numerous weapons to throw to starting with the NFL’s best receiver in Justin Jefferson is not a winning situation for the Eagles. Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell and safety Reed Blankenship are out with rib injuries while cornerback James Bradberry is in the concussion protocol. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable with rib injuries. The Eagles already placed linebacker Nakobe Dean (foot) on the injured reserve this week. Replacing Bradberry is Josh Jobe, who has had just 24 totals snaps in the NFL, which by itself makes Justin Jefferson, rookie Jordan Addison, and TE TJ Hockenson primary targets and excellent Over Player prop bets for catches and/or betting Over receiving yards gained tonight. If the Eagles elect to have Darius Slay mirror Jefferson, the first Slay will be out of position if lined up on the left side (defense perspective) and also puts Jobe in a new side of the field with no experience. The Vikings can utilize Jefferson as a decoy and force another backup at the free safety position, rookie Sydney Brown, to be used as deep help against Jefferson leaving Jobe on an island to cover Addison. Thius is a simple read for Cousins to make, especially if the Eagles defensive front does not get pressure on him with just their front four. If the Eagles need to bring linebacker blitzes, then look for Cousins to get the ball out quickly targeting Hockenson over the middle. |
|||||||
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets Now, this is a top-rated pick and we have seen an increase in scoring volatility with nearly 30% of games played seeing both teams enjoying 7 or more-point leads. Two games already in Week 1 saw this happen with the Detroit Lions scoring first and leading 7-0 and then the Chiefs roaring back to retake the lead 14-7. In the second game, the Vikings took a 10-3 lead after the Bucs opened the scoring 3-0 and then tied the game at the half and took the lead in the third quarter 17-10. This game has the potential for a similar back and forth type of scoring volatility so if it does happen let it work in your favor. Consider betting 8-Units on the Jets preflop and then if they fall behind by 7 points on the basis of a Bill touchdown to start the scoring add another unit plus the points, and if that lead goes to 10-0 or 14-0 then add the final unit plus the points. I am not suggesting this will happen, but if it does jump on it as another betting opportunity, in my opinion. Aaron Rogers is back with his former OC Nathaniel Hackett and former Packer’s WR Allen Lazard and WR Randall Cobb. The last time Rogers had an elite defensive unit playing with the Packers as back in 2010, which is also the year of the only Super Bowl ring Rogers has ever had. More, the Jets last season allowed the second fewest yards-per-play at 4.8 and just a couple of hundredths higher than the Philadelphia Eagles. So, even though this is the first game of the regular season, this Jets team – at least on paper – is much better than last year’s edition. Divisional dogs in week 1 action are 15-13-1 SU and 18-11 ATS over the past five seasons. Home dogs over the past five years have gone 5-3-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over the past five seasons, 9-6-2 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons, and 20-19-2 SU and 26-15 ATS over the past 25 seasons. If our dog is priced at just 2.5 points or less, they have gone 9-2 SUATS for 82% winners over the past 25 seasons. Rodgers is 6-0 ATS as a home dog and 43-27 ATS facing a divisional foe for his career. Favorites playing on Week 1 and on MNF have gone a terrible 14-11 SU and 7-16-2 ATS for 36% winners since 2009. Plus, if the MNF game is facing off divisional foes, the favorite is on a 5-5 SU record and 2-7-1 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the favorite is taking on a host that had a losing record last season, the favorites are a horrid 3-9 ATS for 25% winning bets. From the predictive model, one of the high probability projections call the Bills to have the same or more turnovers than the Jets. Favorites on MNF in week 1that had the same or more turnovers when on to post a 2-7-1 ATS record for 22% winners. The Jets are also 12-3 ATS as a home dog hosting the Bills and 8-1 ATS for 89% winners when hosting the Bills as a home dog and priced at 7.5 or fewer points. The Flyboys are 71-12 SU and 69-13-1 ATS in home games in which they have scored 24 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past 20 seasons and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winners over the past five seasons. Take the Jets and remember always to be with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. Betting on dogs in Week 1 facing a divisional rival have gone 22-21-2 SU and 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 5 PPG. If our dog is priced as 6.5 or fewer points, they have earned a 19-14-1 SU mark and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets and if a priced as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points an outstanding 7-4-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets covering by an average of 8.3 PPG. Betting on Dogs in a divisional matchup in Week 1 that lost both games to that foe last season have gone 18-33-2 SU, but 36-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Now, if priced as a home dog of two or more points has gone 16-16-2 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% last 20 seasons and has produced a 7-4-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings Sunday, September 10, 2023 Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots Week 1 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots plus the points currently at +4.5 points. The Super Bowl loser generally starts the next season off with a bit of a hangover or perhaps it is more over confidence knowing they are a Super Bowl contending type of team. The Patriots had an off season by many standards, and they did add quite a few solid pieces to fill voids and weakness from last year’s roster. The Super Bowl loser is just 2-10 ATS when playing on the road in Week 1 spanning the past 20 seasons and 1-5 if a road favorite of at least 2 points. Coach Belichick is 29-15 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 57-37 ATS as a dog for his career, 102-65 Ats in games played in the first half of the regular season. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Patriot to score 21 or more points, their defense to hold the Eagles passing game to 250 or fewer net passing yards and for the Patriots to gain at least 4 yards-per-carry. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures saw them go an impressive 100-15 SU and 87-27-12 ATS for 76% winning bets and 67-4 SU and 53-17-1 ATS for 76% winning bets if playing at home in Gillette Stadium. The ’spine’ of the Eagles defense is the weakest part of their unit entering the season. They have had numerous personnel changes within the unit due to free agency and it is rare that any team can have solid chemistry and communication early on in the season. They also have five defensive starters aged 30 or more and the wear and tear of a long-standing career does take it’s toll on the human body. Two of those players re at the cornerback position with Darius Slay, who is still one of the best entering the season and James Bradberry on the right side, who was acquired as a cap casualty from the Giants. Last season, 12.0 of Matthew Judon's 15.5 sacks were recorded in the first half of games, most in the NFL. Overall, Judon's 28.0 total sacks since the start of the 2021 season are tied for the most in that span behind T.J. Watt. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Bucs +5 v. Vikings | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Sunday, September 10, 2023 Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens 8-Unit best Bet on the Texans plus the 9.5-points Consider betting 6-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +14.5 points during the first half of action. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. So, let the back and forth scoring that is prevalent in a typical NFL game work in your favor.
We are 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets through two weeks of college football and 68% on 79-38 ATS record spanning the last three seasons as documented by sportsmemo and sports capping.
|
|||||||
09-10-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers I think betting this game completely preflop is the way to go. Betting on dogs of 6.5 or fewer points in the first four weeks of the season that are facing a host that did not make the playoffs but did win their last two games of the regular season in the previous season are 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past five seasons of action. Over the past 10 seasons, the record has been a highly profitable 22-14 SU and 29-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets and over the past 20 seasons a record of 46-46 SU and 60-27-5 ATS for 69% winning bets. Dogs in a week 1 divisional matchup are 22-21-23 SU, 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 5.5 PPG and if the dog is priced at 6.5 or fewer points, the record goes to 19-14-1 SU and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Wisconsin -5 v. Washington State | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
No. 19 Wisconsin vs Washington State
7:30 PM EST, September 9, 2023 Line: Wisconsin -6 | Total:59 points 8-UNIT BEST BET on Wisconsin minus the points This is a matchup between the Big Ten and PAC-12 in week 2 that will be televised nationally on ABC. Wisconsin got off to a low start in week 1 under new coach Luke Fickell before the offense took flight in a 38-17 win over the Buffalo Bulls. Wisconsin failed to cover the spread priced as 27.5-point home favorites. The Bulls trailed by only four points at the half, but were outscored by 24-7 in the second half. Wisconsin inexplicably lost 17-14 at home to Washington State in Week 3 priced as 17.5 point favorites so revenge is a factor that will prevent them from overlooking them a second consecutive year. Washington State has played in a bowl game seven straight seasons and eight of the past nine. However, the coaching staff has it’s third different offensive and defensive coordinator in as many seasons. Despite the fact that they have former OC Ben Arbuckle, who developed the 8th best offense in college football that averaged just under 500 Yards-Per-Game, it takes time for any offense to learn a new system without any game experience. On defense the problem worsens for Washington State having just five returning starters from a unit that allowed seven foes 20 or fewer points. So, it is not realistic to expect a rebuilding defense to have the potential to stop a Wisconsin air raid offense that returns 10 starters including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who passed for 72 touchdowns in his past two seasons. Wisconsin has three outstanding starting receivers (Chimere Dike, Bryson Green, and Will Pauling) and added 13 quality players form the transfer portal. What are the Model Predictions?
|
|||||||
09-09-23 | Texas +7 v. Alabama | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Texas vs Alabama 7:00 PM EST, September 9, 2023 8-UNIT best bet on Texas plus the points currently priced at 7. If Alabama scores first in this game, consider adding no more than 1-unit on the money line. Texas head coach Sarkisian is 25-10 ATS in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 for his career. He knows what championship teams look like having been at the helm at USC in 2003 when they won the National Championship and as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in their championship season in 2020. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points after a game in which they outgained their foes by 175 or more total yards and has an experienced QB under center while facing a foe with a new and inexperienced QB at the helm has earned a 55-22 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Quinn Ewers is the starting QB for Texas and was the #1 5-star quarterback in the 2021 recruiting class. He had a largely up and down season, but now has that valuable game experience under his belt. Remember, Texas lost at home to Alabama as 17.5 underdogs on a last second FG last year. They have superior depth at wide receiver this season with returning starter Xavier Worthy and the top-rated WR in the transfer portal in AD Mitchell from Georgia. Even more important is that the Longhorns return four of the five offensive linemen, and that unit has tremendous chemistry, which is a significant advantage for them against the ‘Bama defense. If the models and my research are correct, I do believe Texas wins this game outright. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +3 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Texas A&M vs Miami (FL)8-Unit Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes plus the points, currently priced as 4.5 underdogs.
Betting on home teams that are coming off a game in which they gained 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game and in a game with both teams having eight or more returning defensive starters on their team has earned a solid 79-39 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is a consistent 56-28 ATS for 67% winners over the past five seasons. The Aggies have played their last six games without throwing an interception, which is the best current streak in the FBS. Problem for the Aggies is that these streaks rarely continue past six or seven games. Colbie Young had four receptions for 79 yards and caught his sixth career touchdown in his ninth career game with Miami. Among all power conference wideouts with less than 10 career games, Young has the most receiving touchdowns (six), second most catches (36) and second most receiving yards (446). From the predictive models, Miami is expected to have the same or fewer turnovers and hold the Aggies to less than 100 yards rushing. In past games in which Miami achieved these performance measures has seen them go 42-6 SU and 31-15-2 ATS for 67.4% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Notre Dame v. NC State +7 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
No. 10 Notre Dame vs NC StateNoon ET, September 9, 2023NC State +7.5 points
Consider betting 80^ of your bet amount preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% if Notre Dame scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead if their first score was a field goal. Betting on an unranked home underdogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the first two weeks of the season and with a posted total of 50 or more points has earned a solid 12-9 SU record and a 14-7 ASTS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2008. Now, if they are home dogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they do even better with a 9-24 SU record and an impressive 16-7 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2008. Teams have not played a game since 2017, but Notre Dame is riding a 32-3 SU record against the ACC, but has produced a 18-17 ATS mark over that span since 2017. Th efact that this trend has matured over many years actually becomes one that will be prone to reverse course with ND losing more ATS and SU then previously has been attained. Moreover, ND is just 2-112 ATS in road games after leading their last two games by 14 or more points at the half dating back to 2007. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, was a bowl team from the previous season has earned a 100-52 ATS mark for 65% winning bets. Plus, dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off a home win of 17 or more points and had won 60% or more of their games in the previous season has earned a 50-20-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Nebraska v. Colorado UNDER 58 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado vs Nebraska
5-Unit best bet on Nebraska plus the points over the Colorado Buffalos.8-UNIT BEST BET on the Under The reaction has been swift and at this point irrational as 80% of the best being made are on the Buffalos pushing what my research shows to the superior team to be priced as the underdog. About two months ago, this betting line opened with Nebraska priced as a 10-point road favorite and now after one game, the market is telling us that Colorado is a 3.5-point favorite. Colorado is on an 0-7 ATS run in games played with a total between 56 and 63 points. Colorado is 14-27-1 ATS after ALLOWING 525 or more total yards in their previous game. As mentioned, the betting line opened with Nebraska priced as a 10-point road favorite and moved more than 10 points with some books offering Nebraska as a 3.5-point dog yesterday. The current price as Nebraska priced as a 2.5-point underdog. This game is getting more action than some NFL games, which is rare to see and more than 35% of the next most actively bet college football game, which is Texas vs Alabama. The overzealous reaction to Colorado, who suddenly is now ranked in the AP poll is a stunner. Whenever the line movements are this swift and exceed double-digits, the opportunity is to fade the trend and join the books, who will desperately need Nebraska to cover the number. |
|||||||
09-07-23 | Lions +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs 8-Unit best Bet on the Lions plus the 4.5-points Consider betting 5-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +7.5 points and 1-Unit at +9.5 points. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. The Chiefs have played in the most games (32) in which they and their opponents had a 7 or more-point lead over the past five seasons and I believe this game tonight will be another one of those types of up and down games.
|
|||||||
09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Clemson vs Duke Duke second-year head coach Mike Elko has 18 returning starters with 10 on offense including last year’s quarterback, Riley Leonard. After a three-win 2021 season that include losses in their last eight games, former head coach David Cutcliffe was dismissed. Elko turned things around immediately winning 8 regular season games and then won 30-13 in the Military Bowl over UCF. With a total of 55.5 points and Clemson favored by 13 points implies a 34.25-21.25 Clemson win. However, my predictive models show a high probability that Duke will score 27 or more points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. There are several projections that result in Duke’s offense gaining more YPP than Clemson. In past games in which Duke scored 27 or more points and averaged 6 or more YPP they went on to a highly profitable 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If they score 27+ points and gain more YPP than their foe, the record goes to 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Florida State vs LSU I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for LSU to score first or retake the lead during the first half of action and then bet 1-unit on the Seminoles using the money line. FSU head coach Mike Norvell returns 17 starters with nine on defense. The Seminoles started 22 freshman at some point in games played last season and that experience is a monumental advantage and provides superior depth at the skill positions in this matchup. Last year, the Seminoles played 22 freshmen ranking third most in college football and ranked third nationally scoring an average 10.4 PPG in the first quarter of action. Jordan Travis, a senior transfer from Louisville, returns under center after having a great 2022 campaign completing 64% of his 226 passes for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and an outstanding 160.1 quarterback rating (QBR). What I am most impressed this coming into the season are the stable of Seminole running backs starting with red shirt junior transfer Trey Benson, red shirt freshman Rodney Hill, red shirt junior, Lawrence Toafili, red shirt junior transfer Caziah Holmes, and red shirt sophomore CJ Campbell, JR. After transferring from Oregon, Benson ran for 990 rushing yards, averaging 6.4 yards-per-rush (YPR) including nine touchdowns (TD). He accounted for 1,156 yards from scrimmage and 120 TD. I believe Hill is going to have a breakout season and is listed as the second RB on the Seminole depth chart. He has elite quickness, speed, and elusiveness that may give the Seminoles two 1,000 yard ground gainers this season. The most significant addition to the Seminole offense is the junior transfer Keon Coleman from Michigan State, who has NFL size at 6-4 and 215 pounds and can be consistently covered in man coverage schemes. For MSU last season, he caught a team high 58 balls for a team-high 798 receiving yards, averaging 13 yards-per-catch (YPC) including team-high eight receiving TD. From the predictive models, we are looking for FSU to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which FSU met or exceeded these measures has produced a 18-0 record and 14-4 ATS record good for 78% winning bets. In games in which LSU allowed 28+ points and had the same or more turnovers has led to a 4-9 record and a 3-10 ATS record for 23% winners in games played over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
Thursday – Nebraska vs Minnesota · Betting on road underdogs facing a conference foe using the MONEY LINE · Our dog is priced at 10 or fewer points · Game occurs in the first three weeks of the season · Our dog is coming off a season in which they allowed 400 or YPG · 26-26 (50%) | 315 ML wager | 310% ROI past 20 seasons Subset: If our road warrior lost by 3 to 9 points in the previous meeting 9-12 (43%) | 12-5 ATS (71%) last 20 seasons
At this point, it appears the Cornhuskers will have their third different starting QB in as many seasons. Former Georgia tech QB, Jeff Sims transferred to Nebraska in December and had a solid Spring football season. He will have a much-improved offensive line in front of him led by ASU transfer and Center Ben Scott. The offensive scheme will be the spread option under head coach Matt Rhule. Nebraska will run the ball from many different pre and post-snap alignments and create opportunities for short pass routes, which in turn will set up the play action pass play in man coverage situations. This ball-controlled scheme will give the defense time to rest between sets of downs, which is something that unit has not benefitted from in many seasons.
|
|||||||
08-31-23 | Florida +4.5 v. Utah | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Thursday – Florida Gators vs Utah Utes The ranked Utah Utes will take on the SEC-member Florida Gators in Week 1 action set to kickoff at 8:00 PM EST, Thursday evening. Ranked teams of between a 7.5-point dog and 7.5-point favorite are 44-41 SU (52%) and 35-47-3 ATS (43%) in Week 1 action. If they won 10 or more games in the previous season, they have underperformed with a 26-22 SU record (54%0 and 19-27-2 ATS mark for just (41%), and the OVER has gone 28-18-2 for a solid 61% winning bets. Let’s drill a bit deeper into the omnipotent database. In week 1 action ranked teams priced between a 7.5 dog and favorite and facing an unranked foe fall flat producing a 15-12 SU record and 7-19-1 ATS mark good for 27% winning bets. This implies that fading these falsely ranked teams, hits 73% winning bets. Not the situation for our matchup here but note for future reference that these Week 1 teams when priced as a dog have gone a terrible 0-4 ATS. If our road disrespected dog won fewer games in the previous season than the ranked foe, these dogs have earned an 11-15 record and a solid 18-7-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 17 seasons and since Covid in 2020, this situational betting angle is a perfect 6-0 ATS. Gator head coach Napier is 5-1 ATS pried as a dog and was 10-3 as a dog while at the helm of Louisiana Lafayette; 15-4 ATS for his career. Utes head coach Whittingham is just 21-35 ATS for 38% when priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point favorite. If those games occurred during the first four weeks, Whittingham is just 4-9 ATS for 31%. From the predictive models, we are looking for Florida to score 24 or more points and have a 5 or more-minute advantage in time-of-possession. In past games in which Florida has met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to a 45-2 SU record and 35-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and if the game is on the road and they are priced as the dog, 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS. When Utah has allowed these performance measures, they have gone 4-16 SU and 3-16-1 ATS for 16%. |
|||||||
08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 47 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
Thursday – North Carolina State vs Connecticut Betting the Under with two teams who lost their last two games of the previous season and with a game total between 45 and 49 points has produced a 32-20 Under record good for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the home team is priced as the underdog the Under soars to a highly profitable 13-3 for 81% winning bets. |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -1 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles 10-Unit 5% Max Best bet on the Eagles From my Predictive Models, 85% probability that Eagles score 28 and have same or fewer turnovers. Teamsin Super Bowls are 10-3 SUATS | 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS for Eagles last three seasons. Chiefs are 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS 27% when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers last three seasons. Last, I recommend an OVER bet if the first quarter ends up showing fewer than 10 points scored and will recommend an 8-unit bet if the quarter ends 0-0 or 3-0. There have been five Super Bowls in which the first quarter ended 0-0. The Over In-Game line is 5-0 and the pre flop Over is 4-1, which implies betting OVER 2nd quarter, and full-game OVER in-game line. This a rather comprehensive list of situational trends and angles that support the bet on the Eagles Teams that scored 30 or more points in their two previous playoff wins to get to the Super Bowl are 7-1 SUATS inn the Super Bowl The League MVP is just 6-15 SU and 5-15-1 ATS and 0-7 ATS last 20 Super Bowls | The last League-MVP to win a Super Bowl was Curt Warner and “The Best Show on Turf” LA Rams in 1999 | Since then, League-MVP’s are 0-9 SU and ATS | Works against Mahomes and the Chiefs Teams lined between 2.5-point-favorites and 2.5-point dogs that had the better defensive yards per point allowed for the season went on to a 5-0 SU and ATS record and 3-2 Over-Under – Favors Eagles Teams that scored in every quarter of their conference championship win have seen the Under go 13-7 (65%) in the Super Bowl| Chiefs and Eagles have scored in every quarter. Teams that scored in every quarter of their previous two playoff games has seen that team go just 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 over-Under | Favors Eagles The team that averaged more points scored in the third quarter are 4-8 SU (33%), 3-9 ATS (25%) and 5-7 O-U |If the total is 50 or more, the higher scoring third quarter team is 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 O-U | Favors Eagles Team is the favorite and has won three of their last four games and facing an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has produced a 37-14 ATS record since 2010; 33-12 SU and 30-13-2 ATS 70% since 2013; 66-34-3 ATS, 73-30 SU (71%) since 1989 From Week 12 on and includes the playoffs The team with the lower offensive yards-per-play average is 16-5 SU, 14-7 ATS, and 9-12 O-U | Eagles LIVE in-game Super Bowl Betting Dogs that scored first went on to a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS record with a 5-5 Over-Under Dogs that scored a touchdown first went on to a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record and 3-4 O-U Teams that had more rushing attempts in the SB have gone 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS and 9-12 O-U | Teams that had more rushing attempts and with the total at 50 or more points has gone 6-1 SUATS and 1-6 O-U 86% under bets. Teams that had more rushing attempts and passes are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS (77%) and 5-8 O-U Teams that had fewer passes went onto a 14-7 SYATS record and 9-12 O-U 43% Teams that had fewer passes, but more rushes went on a 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS. 5-8 Over-Under Teams that had scored 17 or more points by half time and ended the game with the same or fewer turnovers went on to a 7-SUATS record and 7-1 O-U Favorites that exceeded their team totals went 10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS, and 9-11 O-U Dogs that exceeded their team total went 11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS (71%) and 9-12 (43%) |
|||||||
01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Ragles Betting on the OVER with a total between 42.5 and 49 points, coming off two or more consecutive Under games, and is a game involving two very good teams on both sides of the ball that are outscoring their foes by at least 8 PPG on the season has yielded a 27-14 Over record good for 65.9% winning bets since 1995. Now, if the game is taking place in the conference championship game or the Super Bowl, then the record has been 16-6 Over good for 73% winning bets since 1995. Home teams that had no turnovers and covered the spread in their divisional round win are 6-4 SU (60%) and 3-7 ATS (30%), and 7-3 Over-Under (70%). Home teams that played in the previous playoffs are 8-3 SU (73%), 7-4 ATS (64%), and 8-3 Over-Under (73%) in the Conference Championship. Teams that had converted between 55 and 65% of their red zone scoring opportunities on the season yielded 27-23 SU, 28-22 ATS (56%), and 33-15-2 (68%). Teams that posted a dominating defensive yards-per-point allowed of 30 or more in their Divisional Round win are 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS (63%), and 11-2 Over-Under 85%. LIVE In-Game betting notes for BOTH games Road teams that got out to a 7 to 13 points lead, 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 9-1 O-U – average final score 27-26 so betting in-game anywhere below 50 for these two games is quite attractive. |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles -8 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points Giants come into this game covering the spread in seven of their past eight games and this type of trend forces the betting markets to overvalue these teams. This is attributed to recencybias and we do have the Giants coming off a road win over what I believe was the most overrated 13-win team in the past 20 seasons in the Minnesota Vikings. Home teams that were in the playoffs last season and taking on an opponent that missed the playoffs in the previous season 26-6 SU | 20-12 ATS (63%) and In all rounds except SB, road teams that have covered the spread in 7 or more of their last 8 games are 3-10 SU | 3-9-1 ATS (25%). Eagles get their offensive line back to full strength with the return of all pro Lane Johnson and their ground attack is going to be ferocious tonight. The Eagles have been spectacular with Hurts under center identifyingwht the defense is doing pre snap. If the Giants show a cover 2 shell, the Eagles will run the ball between the tackles, if the Giants go to Cover 1 bracket, or Cover-1 Sam Will Blitz – Hurts will know with certainty that he has every WR in man coverage and can throw a deep ball for a vertical route or intermediate crossing pattern. Look for this to feature Eagles tight endGoedart isolated on one side and three WR on the other side of the ball. Don’t be surprised if the 3 WR are on the weak side of the LOS as this gives Davonte Smith an exceptional matchup against a linebacker or safety in man coverage. From the predictive model, the Eagles are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%) in home games in which they gain 150 or more rushing yards and average at least 6.5 yards-per-play. So, look for the Eagles to exploit the ground attack and consider making a pizza money prop bet on Miles Sanders Over 66.5 rushing yards. Dallas Goedart Over 30 yards longest reception, AJ Brown Over 100 yards receiving +240, Devonta Smith Over 100 receiving yards +300, and Giants Richie James Over 4.5 +105 receptions – all at BetMGM |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs Kansas City 4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars plus the points and sprinkle a bit more ‘pizza money’ on the money line. I am waiting to place this bet till we get within about 3 or 4 hours of game time given that everyone’s aunt, uncle, and pet have or will be betting on the Chiefs today. I know that in several Las Vegas sportsbooks, Circa is one, that has a large exposure with teasers involving the Chiefs and the books will move this line even higher to avoid further imbalances on their books. So, one optional way to bet this game is to bet 50% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 50% more if the Chiefs score first and it is a TD – not an FG. If the Chiefs score an FG first and then a TD for a 10-0 lead, then add the 50% in-game. Home teams that scored the first TD of a divisional round matchup go on to a rather unimpressive 19-18 ATS over the past 20 seasons. Betting on dogs between 7.5 and 11.5 points in a conference matchup (not the Super Bowl) that are facing the top seed are 2-5 SU and 6-1 ATS and 6-1 Under the total. Andy Reid, who might be understandably wary of this weekend’s matchup vs. the Jags, coached by one-time protégé Doug Pederson, both a QB and an assistant to Reid in the past. |
|||||||
01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 44.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills 1:00 ET, January 15, 2022 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER The Dolphins committed the fourth-most penalties this season with 111 and Buffalo was not far behind with 92 hankies thrown at them and accepted by their foes. In the Wild Card round the Under is 32-13-1 for 71% when one of the teams has committed 110 or more penalties on the season. If both teams competing in the wild-card round committed 90 or more penalties, the UNDER has produced a 70-38-2 record for 65% winners over 20 seasons. Only one team has scored fewer points over a four-game span in the playoffs in postseason history, than the 24 points scored by the Dolphins. That team is the Giants from 1939 to 1944, who scored 16 points. As injury-plagued are the Dolphins team, I do not see them scoring over their team total. With a total of 40.5 points and a line of 14 points, projects that the Bills will win the game 27-13. I certainly do not see them scoring 17 or more points. From the predictive model, the Bills are 9-1 UNDER in games played over the past 10 seasons when allowing 14 or fewer points at home against a divisional foe. First-year head coaches when on the road in the Wild Card round are 4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS, and 8-3 Under (73%) over the past 10 playoff seasons. |
|||||||
01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Chargers vs Jacksonville 5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet UNDER the posted total The Chargers are 9-4 when facing the Jaguars, but they did lose at home in Inglewood 30-10 to the Jaguars in Week 3. The Chargers are 10-3 ATS when facing the Jaguars, but let’s keep in mind many editions of the Jaguars were poor teams. New head coach Doug Pederson has his team and most of all his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, playing at higher and higher levels. With the brain-dead decision to play his starters, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley, Williams is OUT for this game and it has been a long time since Keenan Allen and Williams have been on the same field together and 100% at full strength. There is a large degree of regression expected in this game. Both Herbert and Lawrence have been executing at a high level. Over his last three games Herbert is averaging 26 completions and completing 70 of 96 pass attempts for 73%. Lawrence is averaging 20 completions over his last three starts and completing 57-of-84 pass attempts for 68%. The Under is 12-1 in the Wild Card round with two quarterbacks completing 67% or more of their pass attempts over their last three games. If one of the quarterbacks (Herbert) comes into the WC game hitting 70% or more of their passes, the Under is 18-3 for 86% winning bets and if OVER 75% the Under is a perfect 5-0. Jaguars are 8-0 Under when facing a solid pass attack averaging 235 or more yards pe rgae in games played in the second half of each of the past three seasons. Fromm the predictive model, we are looking for the Jaguars defense to stop the Chargers ground attack allowing less than 4 YPR and that the Jaguars will not pass for more than 250 net passing yards. In past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has seen the Under produce a highly profitable 19-4-1 record (83%) Similarly, the Chargers have seen the Under produce an exceptional 22-9 Under record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Teams in the Wild card round where on of the teams gained fewer than 4 rushing yards per carry and the other foe was limited to 250 or fewer net passing yards saw the Under go 11-2 for 85% |
|||||||
01-02-23 | Mississippi State v. Illinois OVER 45.5 | Top | 19-10 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Illinois 4% best bet on the OVER There will undoubtedly be an immeasurable amount of emotion in the matchup given the sudden passing of legendary Miss State head coach Mike Leach and will be shared by the team oppositive them in Illinois. There are some opt-outs and notable two key defensive players in the secondary for Illinois. Granted, their replacements are extremely good defenders and athletes, but do think the Air Raid will be on full display and Illinois can put up points against a suspect State defense that allows 26 PPG. Betting the Over in a bowl game in which both teams have the same number of wins and at least 8 wins each and one of the teams is allowing an average of 20 or fewer PPG on the season (Illinois) has earned a 35-25-1 record for 58% winning bets and is 9-4 OVER for 69% over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Rams v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
LA Rams vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Chargers minus the points Home teams that are facing an opponent coming off an upset home win in a none-divisional matchup have gone an impressive 9-1 SUATS. From the predictive models, the Chargers are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and forcing two or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81%) when scoring 24 or more points and forcing 2 or kore turnovers and having two or fewer turnovers in games played since 2015. |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Carolina vs Tampa Bay 5% 10-Unit best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points and consider the money line if the line would drop below 3-points After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season the Panthers made the playoffs. However, this is a team led by Tom Brady, who rarely has ever been swept by a divisional foe. Moreover, enough is enough, with this underperforming Bucs offense and I do expect them to put up much bigger offensive numbers than their season-to-date averages. Road teams in a conference matchup that are coming off an upset by 14 or more points re just 7-28 SU (20%) and 12-22-1 ATS (35%) over the past five seasons. Road teams coming off an upset win in which they gained 275 or more rushing yards are just 3-7 SUATS. Road teams coming off an upset home win in games played in January are just 7-28 SU and 13-21-1 (38%). Moreover, teams that lost the previous matchup to the current opponent have a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season facing a losing record foe, and with our team having lost five or six of their last seven games has gone 10-3 SUATS for 77% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. From the predictive playbook, the Bucs are 26-3 SU and 20-9 ATS for 69% winners when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons. |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs Houston 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars minus the points Houston has beaten Jacksonville in nine-straight games going back to 2018, including a 13-6 victory in October this year. That is the Texans' longest winning streak against a single opponent in franchise history.The under for what it is worth has gone 12-4 for 75% in this situation in which the team has lost 7 exact games to the current opponent. If the total is 43 or fewer points, the Under is 8-3 for 73% winning bets. The Jags allowed three points in their previous game against the Jets in their 19-3 win and covered as 2.5-point road underdogs. They also allowed fewer than 3 points in week 2 in a 24-0 win over the Colts as 3-point home dogs. This is only the second time since 2006, that the Jaguars' defense allowed three or fewer points twice in the same season. Texans are 8-15 ATS following an upset road win. They did upset Tenn 19-14 as a 3-point road dog. Texans head coach Lovie Smith is 2-10 ATS for his career coming off an upset win regardless of location. From the predictive model, JAX is expected to gain at least 130 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone to a 15-5 SU mark for 75% and a 16-4 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Saints v. Eagles -5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Philadelphia 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Eagles minus the points Teams from week 12 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off just their second loss of the season and have two losses total for the season bounce back with a 43-12 SU record and 33-22 ATS mark for 60% winners since 1990. Digging further home favorites of 7.5 or fewer points, coming off their second loss of the season, from week 9 on out, and facing a losing record foe is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1990. Teams that have won 7 or more games than the foe and are coming off a loss and now playing at home are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68%) since 1990 and a perfect 7-0 SUATS last 10 seasons. The eagles are 9-3 ATS in home games and have lost 3 of their last three games to the spread. From the predictive mode, the Eagles are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS when scoring 27 or more points and out-rushing their foes by at least 50 yards in games played since 2018. |
|||||||
12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA 5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Ohio State Buckeye plus the points All the Buckeyes wanted was another opportunity to redeem themselves, just as Georgia did a year ago. The Bulldogs lost 41-24 to Alabama in the 2021 SEC title game but as the No. 3 seed in the CFP downed No. 2 Michigan 34-11 before defeating No. 1 Alabama 33-18 for the national championship. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud led the nation in passer efficiency rating. He threw for 3,340 yards, 37 touchdowns, and six interceptions but will be without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson due to injuries. Even so, Marvin Harrison Jr. had 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the Buckeyes have plenty of big-play ability. Ohio State is extraordinarily deep in talent on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense. Ohio State is 14-3 ATS (82.4%) when not playing at home and coming off a home loss since 1990. The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost their last five games against the spread when facing ranked foes and as a DOG, though, and facing a ranked foe they are
Buckeye head coach Day is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses to the spread and Bulldog HC Smart is 8-20 ATS following a game that his team covered the spread and was priced as double-digit favorites. From the predictive model, we are expecting Ohio State to score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play OR gain at least 9 yards per pass attempt. In past games in which Ohio State met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 71-2 SU record and 56-16-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 20-0 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets. Exercise discipline first and foremost and bet on Ohio State. |
|||||||
12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas -2 | Top | 53-55 | Push | 0 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Kansas vs Arkansas 4% 8-Unit best bet on Arkansas and if this line moves to pick-em or less than a 2-point favorite consider the money line. From the predictive model, Arkansas is expected to score at least 28 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Arkansas met or exceeded these measures has led to a 9-0 SU record and an 8-1 ATS mark over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
12-27-22 | Georgia Southern v. Buffalo +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
Georgia Southern vs Buffalo 4% 8-Unit best bet plus the points and sprinkle the money line with a .5 added bet Betting on underdogs of six or fewer points playing on a neutral field after the week 4 that are coming off two consecutive losses to the spread and the most recent ATS was a game in which they were lined as double-digit favorites has earned an 11-9 record on the money line and a 14-6 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If a bowl game these dogs have gone 7-7 SU, 10-4 ATS for 71.4% winning bets. Georgia Southern is getting the large majority of the bets being made and presents a contrarian opportunity for us in this bowl game. Dogs of 3.5 to 0.5 points playing in bowl games getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them have gone 109-687 ATS for 62% winning bets and a solid 22% ROI. I am going with Bowling Green in this one. |
|||||||
12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Packers vs Dolphins 5% 10-UNIT MAX bet on the Dolphins Despite winning four of their last five meetings, the Packers are 5-10 all-time against the Dolphins. It is Green Bay's worst record against any active franchise. Moreover, Rogers has gone 18 consecutive starts without throwing for 300 or more yards and only Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke have more cumulative starts. So, Rogers is not playing at the levels of previous seasons when they were playoff contenders. The Dolphins are allowing 15.3 points per game at home this season, 16.2 points per game less than on the road where they have allowed 31.5 PPG. That is the largest difference in the NFL and the third largest by any team in the last 40 seasons. The 2018 Chiefs, 16.6, and 2009 Seahawks, 16.2. Dolphins are at home and this is good news for their quarterback Tua, now 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 71.4. In starts with a temperature of 50 degrees or higher, Tagovailoa boasts a 17-7 (.708) record with a passer rating of 98.1 over those 24 games. Betting on favorites that are taking on a foe that has gone Over the total by 35 points in total over their previous five games has earned a 52-37 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the padst five seasons. If our favorite has won more games than their opponent, they go on to a 38-20 ATS record for 65.5% winning bets last five seasons. If a no-divisional matchup is added our favorites have produced an 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Eagles +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Dallas 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the points Betting on road dogs in a divisional fray that have outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more PPG spanning their last three games have gone to earn a 27-16 ATS record good for 63% winning bets. Prescott has the most interceptions in the NFL (10) since returning from a broken thumb in Week 7 after missing five games. I also like the fact that Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is returning to the lineup from a shoulder injury. When he has injured I stated that he may be the most important player on the offense because of all the great things he does for the offense that do not get recorded in the box scores. His run blocking is the best in the NFL for TEs and I do expect Miles Sanders to get an above average amount of carries in this matchup. These run plays will attempt to get Goedert matched up against DE Micah Parsons, along with either the right or left tackle in a double team. Goedert will release his contact with Parsons quickly looking to get to the second level and open up gaping holes for Sanders to scoot through. Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are elite offenses averaging 6.0 or more YPPL and are coming off a game in which they outgained their previous opponent by at least 150 yards have earned a 38-14-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Dogs in a divisional game, averaging 5.75 or more YPPL, won the previous matchup in the same season, are 7-3 ATS for 70% winners. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Bills -8 v. Bears | 35-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Buffalo Bills minus the points Bills are 8-3 ATS when taking on a losing record team in games played over the past three seasons. Bills are 6-0 ATS coming off a win of 6 or fewer points and with the game taking place in the second half of the season in game splayed over the past three seasons. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 10-1 ATS following a win by three or fewer points. From the predictive model, the Bills are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons when scoring 28 or more points and outgaining their foe by at least 100 total yards. Bet the Bills and forget the weather for once. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Vikings minus the points Betting on any team playing on a Saturday that is coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an unprofitable 11-24-2 ATS record for 31% winning bets and targets the Giants to fade in this matchup. If the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 points these teams have gone just 5-12 ATS for 29%. Giants are 0-6 ATS when facing excellent passing teams completing 64% or more of their past attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. Minnesota is 30-13-1 ATS following a game in which they scored no more than three points in the first half over the past 30 seasons. Teams, like the Vikings, who scored 7 or fewer points in the first half, but then scored 34 or more points in total in their previous game go on to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Falcons +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Baltimore 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons plus the points The weather forecast is for the game time temperature to be 15 degrees amid partly cloudy skies and very cold temperatures are expected for Saturday afternoon's game at M&T Bank Stadium. Moderate winds with strong gusts blowing diagonally across the field will make passing and kicking difficult. Betting on teams that have gone five consecutive games in which they forced no more than a single turnover in each of those games and now facing a foe coming off a game in which they had a turnover margin of -2 or worse has earned a highly profitable 68-39 ATS record for 64% winners. If this team is in a non-conference game and coming off a divisional game, they have gone 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Bengals -3 v. Patriots | Top | 22-18 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New England 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals minus the points Betting road favorites that are averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and coming off a horrid game in which they gained an average of only 5 or fewer passing yards per attempt are 19-4 ATS good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from week 10 on out, the system has gone 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets. |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
Air Force vs Baylor 4% 8-Unit best bet on Air Force plus the points Betting on Armed Forces teams, Air Force, Army, and Nay, priced as underdogs of seven or fewer points OR favored and facing a foe that is averaging at least 24 or more PPG on the season in any bowl game has earned a 19-8 SU record and 20-7 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 bowl seasons and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This will be the first time since 1977 that these two football programs will compete on the gridiron. Air Force senior Brad Roberts led the Mountain West Conference in rush attempts (308) and rushing yards (1621) this season. Roberts is the program’s all-time leader in career rush attempts (671) and ranks third in career yards (3429) trailing only Dee Dowis (3612) and Asher Clark (3594). Five of Baylor's six losses this season came against AP-Top 25 ranked opponents. It is Baylor’s most losses to ranked teams in a single season since 2008 (6 losses). Air Force has a lot to play for after underperforming preseason expectations as the favorite to win the MWC starting with the fact that they have a shot at a 10-win season, which is an impressive accomplishment at a service academy. And it would be a nice footnote to the fact they've already claimed the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy after beating Army and Navy. Air Force is 19-10 SU and 19-9-1 ATS (68%) following a game in which they allowed 250 or fewer yard sand 14 or fewer points and 7-0 ATS if priced as a dog and 4-0 ATS if involving a bowl game venue. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been at the head of the program since the start of the 2007 season and has played in 11 bowl games. When the total has been between 42.5 and 49 points, his Falcons are 24-10 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets and 9-3 ATS when priced as a dog. |
|||||||
12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +3.5 | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky vs South Alabama 3.5% 7-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points and if your money line price is at +150 or higher then add a 1-Unit amount. That is WHY this is graded as a 7-unit bet on the spread. If you want to be all 8-units getting the points that is a perfectly sound strategy too. Betting on teams playing in the post season bowl slate, is receiving less than 40% of the tickets bet and is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points has earned a 110-68-1 ATS record good for 62% winning bets. A variation of this algorithm has earned a 62-30-2 ATS record for 68% winning bets and instructs to be on dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points with a closing total of 70 or fewer points, receiving 33% or fewer of the tickets bet in the bowl game. South Alabama is one of six current FBS teams that has never won a bowl game with the other non-winners Charlotte, Texas State, ULM, UMass and UTSA. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has scored 45+ points in a bowl game four times since 2014, most in the FBS over that span. WKU leads the FBS with 63 offensive plays of 25+ yards this season. The Hilltoppers have gained at least 350 yards on offense in 27 consecutive games marking the third-longest active streak in the FBS behind only UCLA with 33 and UTSA with 29. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the seven points and sprinkle a little bit more on the money line. When the league's slate of prime-time games came out in the spring, a mid-December matchup between the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the three-time defending NFC North champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field sounded like TV ratings gold. No one though this would end up being a meaningless matchup, BUT it is the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams that have been playing with a sense of pride and ambition going with the starters the have available. he Rams have just 13 points on their 14 total takeaways this season, half as many points as any other team (Denver ranks 31st with 26 takeaway points). The Packers have allowed 35 giveaway points on their 17 turnovers this season, tied for fifth fewest in the league. So, if the4re was ever a game in which the Rams will take full advantage of Packers Aaron Rogers turnovers, it will be tonight. Head coach McVay is 17-7-1 ATS in game splayed in December. There have been two times in the Super Bowl era where a quarterback came off the bench, threw for 200+ yards, rallied from 13+ points down to win and snapped his team's winless streak of six or more games. One was Baker Mayfield's Browns debut in 2018, and the other was his Rams debut last week and that is impressive to say the least. He and the Rams have everything to prove on the field tonight, especially Mayfield. From the predictive model the Rams are 26-11-4 ATS for 70% winning bets when gaining 5.0 or more yards per play and have the same or fewer turnovers than their foes in games played over the last five seasons and 7-3 ATS when priced as the uderdog. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Connecticut +12.5 v. Marshall | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Marshall vs UCONN 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UCONN plus the points UConn (6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-7-1 O=U)) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games and covered the spread in all six, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. Games playing on a neutral field that has a worse win percentage then the foe and are priced between a 10- and 14.5-point underdog are 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after Week 12 these double-digit dogs have earned a 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets. |
|||||||
12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Seattle 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners. The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team. |
|||||||
12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 43 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Seattle 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners. The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Dolphins vs Chargers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chargers plus the points Betting on underdogs that forcing an average of fewer than one turnover per game on the season and coming off a horrid game in which they committed three or more turnovers has earned a 46-18-3 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home as a dog against a conference foe our record improves to 13-4-2 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2013. Teams, like the Dolphins, that had a five gamer win streak halted with a double-digit road loss are just 13-24-4 ATS for 35% winning bets so fading these teams has won 65% ATS of bets placed. In these games if the total has been 50+ points, the Dolphins fit into an imperfect 0-5 ATS situation. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Bucs vs 49ers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs plus the points Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that is coming off a two ATS wins priced as the favorite in each game, and with the dog coming off a home win has earned a 39-21-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2010. Brady is 45-14 SU and 43-11-5 ATS when taking on a foe with the better record. Bucs are also 7-2-2 ATS coming off a game priced as the favorite and now installed as a dog spanning the past five seasons. If the Bus were favored, but failed to cover the spread in their previous game and now priced as the fog, they have gone 5-1 SUATS. Take the Bucs and sprinkle the money line a bit more. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions -2 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Detroit 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Detroit Lions minus the points. Betting on favorites that have won three of their last four games and facing a foe that has won eight or more of their last 10 games has earned a 34-14-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets since 2010. If the total is less than 55 points, the favorite has gone 32-12-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. The last four games between the Lions and Vikings have all been decided by four or fewer points, which is tied for the longest such streak in series history matching four straight from 1963-65. It's also the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL right now. In this situation, the home teams that also has fewer wins than the foe has earned a 14-5-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets since 2010. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | Top | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants 4% best bet on the Giants plus the points and sprinkle the money line Bet on hoe dogs facing an elite opponent that has averaging 5.75 or more yards-per-play and the favorite has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their past two games has earned a 32-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 1990 and if our dog is priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point underdog, they have gone 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets since 1990. In last week’s game against Washington, Daniel Jones became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to complete 80.0 percent of his passes on 30 or more attempts while also rushing for 70 or more yards in a game. Teams that have won their first five road games of the regular season, priced as a road favorite in the current game and average fewer than 1 turnover per game are just 6-13-1 ATS. |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Jets +10 v. Bills | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jets plus the generous amount of points and just in case a sprinkle on the money line is warranted. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points facing a foe that forced no more than a single turnover has earned these dogs a 145-85 ATS record good fort 64% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points that forced no more than a single turnover in their previous game and are playing with same season revenge against a divisional foe are just 10-21-1 ATS for 32% winning bets – so facing these favorite has earned a 68% win rate. |
|||||||
12-10-22 | Navy v. Army UNDER 32.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 59 m | Show |
Army vs Navy 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total If it isn’t broke do not try to fix it. I like betting 50% preflop Under the total and then look for a decent start by both teams and look to add the second 50% at 37.5 or more points. It is difficult, mentally to bet an Under priced at 32.5 points, but the numbers once again support this bet and it is just one bet over the course of a marathon season. Bet the Under when the total is 50 or fewer points and a matchup of two teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards per game has earned a 50-25-2 record good for 67% winning Under bets since 2006 and 37-14-2 Under good for 73% winning bets since 2015. |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Buffalo vs New England 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the points and a bit more sprinkle on the moneyline. Mac Jones threw touchdowns of 37 and 34 yards in the Thanksgiving loss. Jones entered the game with three career TD passes of at least 30 yards with one of those coming in 2022 prior to playing the Vikings. This is a certain sign that the Patriots are opening up the playbook and looking to stretch the defense vertically using a variety of 20+ yard routes. This is in turn will open up the ground game between the tackles and also using the traditional old-school trap block running plays. If Buffalo moves to a cover-1 shell, then no doubt in my mind you will see Jones use play action to freeze the linebackers and the look for crossing routes over the middle of field for high percentage catch and carry receptions. The injury bug has migrated around the Bills' defense this season. The latest to be affected is top pass rusher Von Miller after he was ruled out with a knee injury. Miller leads the team with eight sacks and has been the veteran leader on the defensive unit. His absence creates an enormous hole for a unit that has allowed just 18.1 points per game this season, the fifth fewest allowed in the NFL. Betting on underdogs that are taking on a favorite that is outgaining their opponents by .75 or more YPPL and have averaged 400 or more total yards over their last three games has produced a remarkable 51-15-2 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the favorite won the previous meeting, which the Bills did, the system improves to 34-9 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model of mine, the Patriots are expected to score 24 or more points and average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In past HOME games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 85-4 SU record and 69-20 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 1998 and since Tom Brady left Foxborough, they are an even better 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS (88%). |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 39.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Colts 4% 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the total Betting the Over when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with one of the teams, Pittsburgh in this case coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional rival, from week 5 on out has earned a 46-25 Over good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tomlin is 13-4 Over off a close loss to a divisional foe of not more than 7 points. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs New York Jets 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Jets minus the points I waited to release this opportunity given the weather. It is a near certainty that it will start raining at the beginning of this game and will continue to rain throughout the entire game, which I believe favors the Jets even more than if the sun was shining brightly and not a could in the sky. The Bears defense has been horrific allowing 35 PPG over their last four games and the move to Mike White under center is a monster upgrade to Zach Wilson’s recent performances and whining about it to the media. Against the Bears defense in the rain, Mike White will not have to win the game on his arm and they can elect to run the ball first and foremost. Running plays also include the easy to complete passes in the flat and the keep the chains moving. Do not be surprised, though, if play action opens up the opportunity to throw the over-the-top vertical pass routes. White has a great arm – even in the rain – and once the Bears succumb from a Cover-2 shell and bring those safeties up to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, White will have any of receivers in man coverage and a high percentage completion percentage opportunity. Betting on favorites that are facing a team that has gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games and has won not more than 40% of their games on the season has earned a 36-15-3 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bears are 1-6 ATS last 3 seasons following back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored. From the predictive model, the Jets are 25-2 SU and 22-5 ATS (82%) winners in home games, gaining at least 5.5 yards per play and allowing 17 or fewer points. The Bears are 1-51 SU, 6-45-1 ATS (12%) when allowing 5.5 or more yards per play and scoring 17 or fewer points. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC -4 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs USC 5% MAX 10-Unit Best bet on Southern Cal minus the points From the predictive model, we are expecting USC to score at least 31 points, gain at least 100+ more yards of total offense and have the same or fewer turnovers. USC is 48-0 SU and 42-6 ATS (88%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures since 2006 and 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS the past five seasons. Betting on home favorites between 4 and 10 points in weeks 10 on out and facing a foe that has gone Over the total by 49 or more points in their last five games has earned a 15-4 SU (79%) and 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Chargers plus the points and sprinkle the money line a bit too. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent whose defense has not forced a single turnover in their past two games has earned a 49-21 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season, these dogs soar to 31-12 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Chiefs are just 2-15 against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. They are also 2-16 against the spread after gaining .an average of 450 or more total yards per game over their past three games. From the predictive model we are expecting the charges to gain at least 80 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has lead them to a 25-7 straight up record for 78% winning bets and 22-8 - 2 for 73% winning bets against the spread. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points or use the moneyline if it is a cheaper price at your sportsbook. The Dallas Cowboys are 9-1 for 90% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.4 points per game when facing a defense that is allowing 225 or more passing yards per game in games played over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 7-2 for 78% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 7.50 points per bet when facing a defense that is allowing 7.00 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last two seasons. They are also a perfect 6-0 covering the spread by an average of 10 points per game when coming off a terrible defensive effort in which they allowed six or more yards per play in games played over the last two seasons. From the predictive model we are expecting Dallas to gain at least 125 rushing yards average more yards gained per play than the Vikings and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Vikings. In past games in which the Cowboys met or exceeded these performance measures has LED them to a perfect 16- hi0 record and 16-0 against the spread covering each bet by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Vikings in the same situation are 0-9 straight up and against the spread and losing to the spread by an average of 11 points per game. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 101 h 3 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs New York Giants 5% 10-Unit Max bet Game of the Year 1:00 EST, Sunday, November 20,l 2022 If you have watched me for any length of time – even just a week – you already know how much I emphasize discipline. This is a 5% MAX Best Bet. That does not mean you consider betting a 20% amount, for instance. Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours is my slogan and moto. This sia very strong betting opportunity and one that I do believe strongly will win, BUT BUTBUT please remember there is no such thing as a LOCK or guaranteed to win bet. As much research and supporting analytics are solidly behind the Lions, they could fail to cover the spread. Betting on teams that average 30 or fewer rushing attempts per game, are coming off an upset road win, had no more than a 4-minute time of possession advantage in that upset win, and now facing a foe that averages at least 32 minutes in time of possession has earned a 34-33 SU and 42-24-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the previous 15 seasons. If our team is facing a foe with a win percentage of .500 or better, our team soars a bit higher to produce a 28-24 SU record, 36-15-1 ATS for 71% winners over the past 15 seasons. If our team (obviously the Lions) is the underdog, they go to 14-20 SU and 24-9-1 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Now for the drumroll please. If our dog is priced at no more than 4-points, they have gone on to earn an 11-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS mark good for 92.3% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and is on a 7-0 ATS win streak since 2014. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Lions to average .5 or more yards per play than the Giants, average at least 7 yards per pass attempt, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games since 2015 in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 15-3 SU (83%) mark and 17-1 ATS (94% winning bets. The Giants are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) when allowing 7 or more yards per pass attempt, gained.5 or fewer yards per play, and had the same or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 0-12 SUATS since 2017. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
New York Jets vs New England Patriots 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jets plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line at any price above +150 Betting on underdogs between 3 and 9.5 points that are coming off a home win and facing a foe that has won and covered the spread priced as a favorite in each of their last two games has earned a highly profitable 39-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2013. If the host has a lower win percentage than the guest, the home team is a nearly imperfect 1-7-1 ATS for 12% or facing these home favs has produced an exceptional 88% winning bets since 2010. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, or you like the moneyline that is valid too. Betting on any team that is facing a team that has won between 25 to 40% of their games on the season and has gone Over the posted totals by a combined 35 or more points over their last three games has produced a remarkable 23-7 SU (77%) record and 23-5-2 ATS (82%) winning bets over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan vs Kent State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State –7.5 points or better Betting on home teams from Week 8 on out that are averagig between 190 and 230 rushing yards per game and held their previous opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and facing an opponent that is averaging 140 to 190 rushing yards per game has earned a highy profitable 45-14 SU (76%) record and 40-16-3 ATS (71.4%) record since 2015. If a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points has produced a 10-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) winning bets record. The predictive mode shows an 83% probability that Kent State will score at least 31 points and have the same or fewer turnovers as Eastern Michigan. In past games in which Kent State met these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 17-4 SU (81%) and 16-5 ATS (76%) record since 2015. EMU is 2-28 (7%) and 7-22-1 ATS (24%) when allowing 31 or ore points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent sice 2015. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Jaguars vs Chiefs 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jaguars and add a sprinkle to the moneyline Jacksonville has to feel much better snapping its five-game straight-up and pointspread losing streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 17-0 deficit against Las Vegas Raiders as QB Trevor Lawrence had an extremely efficient game (25 of 31 passing for 235 yds. with a TD and no interceptions plus rushing for 53 yards) and RB Travis Etienne turned in his third straight 100-yard game and now has 379 YR for 5.7 yards per rush attempt and four touchdowns in his last three games. Betting against favorites in games played in November that have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games has earned a 32-17-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets last five season and if that favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, our dogs play even better with a 21-4 ATS record good for 84% winning bets. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Browns vsDolphins 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Dolphins The Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in their last two games, including a 35-32 win in Chicago in Week 9. The last time Miami had a longer streak was 2009 which lasted four games.The Dolphins are undefeated with Tua playing the complete game and I see that trend continuing again today.The Dolphins are averaging 7.0 yards per play on 1st and 10 this season, best in the NFL.The Browns defense is quite good, but Tua is far too smart and creative to be consistently stopped on first downs against anyone. Betting on favorites in a game in which both defenses allowing between 23 and 27.5 points per game, and with our favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game has earned a 38-17-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2010. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Broncos vs Titans 4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Broncos Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which tye converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gopneto earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Texans +5 v. Giants | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Texans vs Giants 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Texans Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which they converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gone to earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. Giants are 4-7 ATS (36%) when taking on a foe that is completing at least 60% of their pass attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. From the predictive model, the Texans as a road dog are 16-2 ATS when holding their opponents to 21 or fewer points and forcing them into 2 or more turnovers. |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Chargers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Chargers vs Falcons 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers Betting on favorites including pick-em in a matchup in which both teams are allowing an average of 23 to 27.5 PPG on the season and with the favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 56-29-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets. Betting on road favorites that are gaining at least 250 passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they gained 5.75 or fewer passing yards per attempt has earned a 44-10 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Plus, if our road favorite is coming off their BYE week, they then have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. Falcons have been winning with smoke and mirrors having been outgained in total yards in 6 of their last 7 games. These pretenders have gone 28-48 ATS when priced as a dog with a win percentage of 50% or higher. |
|||||||
10-29-22 | USC -14 v. Arizona | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
USC vs Arizona 5% 10-UNIT NAX Best Bet on the USC Trojans minus the points USC has won nine straight meetings with Arizona, with the Wildcats' last win coming at home in 2012. The Trojans have won 15 of their 19 all-time visits to Tucson. Jordan Addison had seven catches for 106 yards and hauled in his seventh touchdown of the season, tied with Arizona's Jacob Cowing for the Pac-12 lead. Addison's next reception will mark the 200th of his college career. He is a transfer from Pittsburgh and currently ranks fifth among active FBS players with 199 career receptions and 2844 receiving yards, while his 28 career touchdowns rank second to UTSA's Zakhari Franklin, who has 29. The USC offense ranks ninth averaging 40.4 PPG and 8th with a 0.589 points-per-play ration in the nation. That explosive offense is going up against a defense in Arizona that ranks 123rd in the nation with a 0.554 points-per-play allowed and 124th allowing 37.7 PPG. The Wildcats have allowed 6.94 yards per play this season, third highest in the FBS behind Charlotte (7.36) and South Florida (7.00). Arizona has allowed 5.8 yards per rush this season, fourth most in the FBS, but held Washington to just 79 yards (2.7 yards per rush) in its last game. Betting on road favorites of 13 or more points that is facing a foe that is allowing 31 o more PPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points in total were scored has earned an outstanding 106-57-1 SYS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Plus, if being played from Week 9 on out and against a conference foe has improved the results to a 73-6 SU record and 55-24 ASTS for 70% winning bets. Take USC minus the points |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Bears +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Patriots 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points Betting on road underdogs that are facing a foe that is outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards per pass attempt, after gaining seven or more passing yards per attempt in their last game has earned an outstanding 73-38-3 for 65.7% ATS winners over the last five seasons. If the home favorite held their previous opponent seven or more points UNDER their team total, these teams are just 3-9 ATS for 25%. So, fading them produced a 75% winning angle. A victory Monday night would be the 325th of his career - including the playoffs - and break a tie with Bears founder George Halas for the second-most wins by a head coach in NFL history. Hall of Famer Don Shula at 347 is the only coach with more. At age 70 and in his 23rd season with New England, Belichick became one of four people to coach at least 400 games with a single team, along with Halas (506 with Chicago), Tom Landry (454 with Dallas) and Shula (422 with Miami). Among that group, Belichick's winning percentage (.716) is the highest. He is 287-114 as New England's coach, including playoffs. The Bears rank third against the pass, and it is not just because teams are running at will against a team that is near the bottom of the NFL in stopping the rush. Chicago has more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes allowed (four) and has held its opponents to a 79.9 rating. Safety Eddie Jackson has three interceptions after going two seasons without one. He had six in his 2018 All-Pro season and two more the following year when he was chosen for his second Pro Bowl. Jackson has had 13 interceptions since he debuted in 2017. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
Jets vs Broncos 4% best bet on the Over Betting the Over with a team, Broncos, coming off a close loss of three or fewer points to a divisional rival has produced a 100-64-5 record good for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is priced between 35 and 42 points has seen the Over produce a 22-8-1 Over record good for 73% winning bets last 10 seasons. If this game is occurring after the first four weeks of the season, the Over is a remarkable money-making 19-4-1 for 83% winning bets. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Packers v. Commanders +4 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Packers vs Commanders 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the points Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that has not forced an opponent turnover in two straight games has produced a 44-19-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. With the Commanders coming off a game in which they committed zero turnovers moves this system to an impeccable 14-3 ATS mark for 82% winning bets. While Rodgers nurses a thumb injury on his throwing hand that is not expected to sideline the four-time MVP, Washington is turning to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback after starter Carson Wentz had surgery to repair a broken right ring finger. Heinicke started 15 games last season and quite frankly, he is a better general of the offense than Wentz. During LaFleur's tenure, the Packers are 37-1 when they force at least one turnover. But the defense has not produced any takeaways during this losing streak, and they have forced only four turnovers all season. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens 1:00 EDT week 7 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns plus the points Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 7.5 points that are facing a divisional foe with a strong offense averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play (YPPL) and outgained their previous opponent by at least 100 yards has earned a highly profitable 22-11 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The Browns have forced no more than one takeaway in nine straight games, the second-longest streak in franchise history behind a 13-game streak in 2017. However, there is a significant probability that the Ravens will commit 2+ turnovers in this game today per my predictive model. So, teams like the Browns in a road game against a divisional foe that force 2+ turnovers and have the same or fewer turnovers (win the turnover battle) have gone 20-16 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
Lions vs Cowboys 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the pooints Situational Betting Algorithms Road dogs of 3.5 to 7.5 points that are coming off their BYE week have earned a solid 20-12 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2015. The Lions is the team targeted by this set of parameters and I would not hesitate to sprinkle the moneyline too. Situational Trends and Angles The Underdogs, who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 35-25-2 ATS (58%) this season. The Lions are 26-10 ATS when on the road and coming off a terrible loss of 14 or more points. The Lions are 7-0 ATS when on the road and coming off a double-digit loss in games played over the last two seasons. |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 43 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under Betting the Under with a home team that averages 1.25 or fewer yrds per pass attempt and with their defense coming off three consecutive games allowing at least seven yards per pass attempt has produced a 47-24-1 Under record good for 67% wining bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, the under won at a 72% clip on a 23-9 record. Titans are 6-0 Under following a win of 6 or fewer points. From the predictive models, the Colts are 53-7 Under when allowing 21 or fewer points and averaging between 6 and 7 yards per pass attempt since 2002 and a perfect 14-0 Under over the past 10 seasons. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Minnesota v. Penn State -5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Penn State 7:30 PM EST 5% 10-Unit Best bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points There is news circulating from reliable sources that Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan will not be able to start tonight in Penn State’s annual white-out game set to start at 7:30 PM EST in Happy Valley. There is news too that PSU QB Sean Clifford may not start either coming off a very physical loss at Michigan last week. The difference here is I the backups and strongly favors PSU true freshman Drew Allar, who is a protype pro quarterback standing 6-5 and weighing in at 238 pounds. He has incredible leg strength and is hard to tackle pulling out of many would be tackler attempts. Most important is that he may be the best quarterback in the game today. He has appeared in four games this season completing 12 of 19 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. How in the world Ohio State let this player get out of their grasps is somewhat mind blowing. Rated as a five-star prospect by 247Sports and On3 and a four-star recruit by ESPN and Rivals...Rated the top quarterback prospect in the country and the No. 3 overall prospect by 247Sports.Named the 2021 Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Mr. Football, State Offensive Player of the Year, Max Preps Ohio Player of the Year and a first-team all-state selection in Division I... Selected Greater Cleveland Conference Offensive Player of the Year, Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Northeast Ohio Inland District Division I Offensive Player of the Year, Cleveland.com Offensive Player of the Year and Medina County MVP. As a junior and senior, was an Ohio Division I first team and Greater Cleveland Conference first team honoree. Completed 305-of-511 passes (60 percent) for 4,444 yards and 48 passing touchdowns his senior season, setting Medina County records for yards and touchdowns. PSU head coach James Franklin is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games. PSU is 40-20-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games. Minnesota is just 7-19 ATS as a road underdog between 3.5 and 7 points. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 61.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Alabama 7:05 EDT 4% 8-Unit Under the total Betting the Under when the road team has a lower rank than the host and is a double-digit underdog has seen the Under go 47-27-3 for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is a 17.5 or greater underdog, then the Under has gone 16-4 for 80% winning Under bets. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Marshall v. James Madison -11.5 | 26-12 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Marshall vs James Madison 4% 8-Unit bets bet on James Madison minus the points 3:30 EDT Marshall is just 24-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games in the last 20 seasons and 2-9 ATS over the last five seasons. After shocking Notre Dame in a 26-21 win in Week 2 the Herd has been stumbling losing 3 of their last 4 and the last four games to the spread. James Madison is coming off their first loss of the season and are 5-1 SUATS. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
UCLA vs Oregon 3:30 EDT 4% 8-Unit best bet on the UCLA Bruins plus the points Well, this is a big showdown with monumental consequences for the loser of this PAC-12 matchup. UCLA is one of the nine remaining undefeated teams in the nation. After Week 7, teams that are undefeated and facing a foe that has won 80% or more of their games and has covered the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games has earned a 19-6-1 ATS record good for 76% winning bets. Teams that are 6-0 on the season and facing a foe coming off a double-digit win and with a total between 65 and 72 points are 5-1 SUATS for 83% winning bets. Bet UCLA |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Rice -2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Rice vs LA-Tech 3:00 EDT 4% best bet on the Rice Owls minus the points Betting on road favorites facing an opponent that is allowing 31 or more points per game and is coming off two consecutive games in which a combined score of 60 or more points was scored has earned a 235-52 SU record for 82% and 180-103-4 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the game is between 55 and 60 points, the record improves to 67-12 for 85% and 53-25-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
Toledo vs Buffalo 4% 8-Unit best bet on Buffalo plus the points Buffalo is 12-3 ATS when facing a strong offense averaging 37 or more points-per-game. Buffalo is 13-3 ATS after winning four of their last five games. Toledo is running hot but prone to a regression matchup here against Buffalo; Toledo is averaging 38.4 PPG and posting a 10.5 yards-per-point, but their defense has suffered allowing 31 PPG and a 12.6 yards-per-point ratio. Teams, like Buffalo, that have covered or pushed against the spread and won all four games have gone on to a 16-6 ATS record for 73% winners. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Syracuse +14.5 v. Clemson | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Clemson 4% best bet on Syracuse plus the points Noon EDT Betting on road underdogs between 9 and 17.5 points in a conference matchup when the total is between 45 and 50 points has earned a 105-58-7 for 64% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our dog is undefeated on the season, they have gone 9-4 ATS for 69% winning bets last 10 seasons. |
|||||||
10-22-22 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
Indiana vs Rutgers Noon EDT 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points Hoosiers are just 4-15 ATS in road games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in two consecutive games. Hoosiers head coach Allen is 1-9 ATS following a game with a –2 or worse turnover margin. From the predictive model, Indiana is expected to gain less than 3 yards per carry and for Rutgers to score 28 or more points. Rutgers is 17-0 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in hoe games scoring 28 or ore points and allowing less than 3 yards per carry. Indiana is 1-18 SU and 6-13 ATS in road games rushing for less than 3 yards per carry and allowing 28 or more points. |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Virginia +3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Virginia vs Georgia Tech 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points Betting on dogs of 3 to 10 points in games played from weeks 5 to 9, are coming off two consecutive double-digit losses to conference foes are 39-46 SU, 57-25-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since the start of the 2013 season spanning 10 season and only the 2021, season had a losing record at 2-5 ATS. Teams like UVA that have covered the spread on no more than of their last six games, lined as a dog of not more than 4.5 points and with the total between 45 and 50 points has earned a 15-9 ATS record good for 63% winning bets. |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Denver vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Broncos plus the points These two NFL teams are heading in opposite directions with the Broncos vastly underperforming losing their last two games to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts by nine and three points respectively. Their last lost to the Colts was a dreadful performance scoring just nine points and somehow losing 12-9 as 3-point home favorites. Despite the acquisition of all-pro quarterback Russell Wilson, the offense has been positively pathetic ranking dead last averaging 15 points-per-game and with a .236 points-per-play ratio. They have gone Under their team total by combined 41 points in just five games The betting markets opened this game with the Chargers favored by -6 points and the public went to the window quickly and often to bet the Chargers. Despite, 65% of the tickets bet being on the Chargers, the line has declined to make the Chargers a 4.5-point home favorite. If more bettors have bet on the Chargers accounting for 65% of all bets placed how could the line drop? The ‘sharps’ are the reason why the line has reversed course and they are the larger bettors including professionals. The ‘sharps’ account for 55% of the total money booked, but just 35% of the tickets. Generally, professionals look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team and the following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Broncos. Underdogs who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 36-23 ATS (61%) this season Chargers are 8-16 ATS (33%) in home games and facing a strong defense allowing 6 or fewer yards-per-play (YPPL) From my predictive models, the Chargers are expected to commit two turnovers Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in home games in which they committed two turnovers Broncos are 11-4-1 ATS (73%) when priced as a dog and forcing two turnovers. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Buffalo vs Kansas City 10-Unit 5% MAX Best Bet Over the posted total Betting Over in games played form Week 6 on out, with the road team in the matchup outgaining their opponents by at least 1.33 YPPL and are coming off 400 more total yards in their previous game has seen the Over go 22-12 for 65% winning bets since 1989 and 13-4 Over for 77% winning bets if the road team is outgaining their opponents by at least 1.50 YPPL. Plus, 9-1 Over if they are outgaining their opponents by 2.0 or more YPPL. The Bills are outgaining their opponent by a league-best 2.18 YPPL. From the predictive model, the Bills and Chiefs are expected to gain at least 5.75 YPPL. The Bills are 10-1 Over and the Chiefs 21-9-2 Over for 70% when these measures have been met or exceeded in games played over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints +3 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New Orleans 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints OVER 42.5 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New Orleans 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers OVER 46 | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
Buccaneers vs Steelers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total Steelers are 7-3 Over in home games and facing a solid defense allowing 17 or fewer points per game over the past 10 seasons. The Steelers are 27-14 Over-Under 66% in home games and coming off two straight losses and 12-4 Over following three straight losses. They are 13-7 Over in home games and on a 3 or more ats losing streak. The Steelers scored just three points in last week's loss to Buffalo despite ending the game with 364 yards. It was the second-most yards the Steelers have ever had in a game where the team failed to score more than three points (389 yards in 20-3 loss to 49ers in 2011) in the Super Bowl era. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Miami 4% best bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are coming off an upset road loss and has won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season has earned a 28-24 SU record, 34-18 ATS record good for 65.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and if a non-divisional matchup has earned a 17-11 SU record and 20-8 SATS mark good for 71.4% winning bets. This is a contrarian bet. Miami’s top two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, are in the concussion protocol and have lost two straight games after starting 3-0. Plus, Miami will start a rookie quarterback Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings (4-1). With Skylar Thompson at quarterback, the Dolphins will hope to build on last week's best rushing output of the year and correct their issues in defending the pass and they have had a full week for Thompson to work with the first unit, correct his footwork mistakes, and create some good timing with the wideouts. |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 38-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
New England vs Cleveland 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Patriots plus the points Betting on road underdogs including pick-em following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and taking on a foe that has had a turnover margin of –1 or worse in each of their past two games has led to a 32-9-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons The Patriots are coming off a 29-0 win over the Lions, the 17th time team coached by Bill Belichick has shut out their opponent. That is more shutouts than the combined total of the next three active coaches with the most team shutouts (John Harbaugh (5), Mike Tomlin (5) and Mike McCarthy (4). |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears OVER 37.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Washington vs Chicago 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total, currently at 38 and may get to 37.5 points ahead of the 8:15 PM EST kickoff. Commanders are 16-2-1 Over for 89% winning bets in road games and coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more passing yards since 2010. |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
Temple vs UCF 4% 8-Unit best bet on UCF minus the points I loaded this up wrong and the bet is ON UCF !!! Betting on favorites of 23.5 to 31.5points following two consecutive wins by 17 or more points and facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game has earned an outstanding 56-1 SU and 39-16-2 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2010. |
|||||||
10-13-22 | Baylor -3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
Baylor vs West Virginia 4% 8-Unit best bet on Baylor minus the points Betting on road teams using the money line that are coming off an upset loss to a conference foe, has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season and facing a losing record foe has earned a 26-16 ATS mark for 62% winning bets and if that foe averaged fewer than 4 yards per rush in their previous game the record goes to 33-9 SU and 12-5-1 ATS for 71% wining bets. From the predictive model, Baylor is 24-4 SU and 22-6 ASTS for 79% winning bets when scoring 28+ points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponents in games played over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette +10.5 v. Marshall | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
LA Lafayette vs Marshall 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns plus the points. Marshall is just 7-19 ATS in a home game when the total has been between 42.5 and 49.5 points over the past 10 seasons; 21-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games SU; 15-34-1 ATs following two games io which they committed no more than a single turnover in each. From my predictive model, LAL is expected to score 24 or more points and have fewer turnovers than Marshall. In past games in which they achieved those measures, they have gone on to earn a 27-2 SU mark and 20-8-1nATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons and when priced as the dog, 7-1 SUATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals 5% MAX 10-Unit best Bet on the Eagles minus the points As I had mentioned on several occasions before the preseason started, I truly believed the Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in many seasons- not just this season. They know this is a letdown spot for them with travel to the Est Coast and they will be more than ready to play and fully focused to get to 5-0 on the season. The Phillies winning their playoff series last night, whether they know it or not, will feed into this club too, and they will hardly want to come back home to Philadelphia having let down the fan base. This is an intangible but one I think favors the Eagles in a big way. Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in home games after outgaining the previous opponent by 100 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 8-15 ATS in home games when the total has been 45 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Cardinals head coach Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record. From my predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score at least 24 or more points. In past games in which the Cardinals allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed 24 or more points they have gone 3-11-1 ATS for 21% over the past five seasons. The Eagles are 12-2-1 for 86% winning bets when rushing the ball for 150 or more yards and scoring 24 or more points in games played over the last five seasons. |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Fresno State vs Boise State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Boise State minus the points 9:45 PM EST Fresno head coach Tedford is 0-7 ATS following a game in which he gained 225 or fewer yards. From the predictive model, we are expecting Fresno to gain less than 100 rushing yards and for Boise to score at least 28 points. In past games in which Boise State scored 28 or more points and held their opponent to less than 100 RY has seen them earn a 61-4 SU record and a 45-17-2 SATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006. If the game is at home, BSU is 31-1 SU and 21-9-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. |