Rating: 2 Units

The Trail Blazers are a dreadful 1-8 ATS on the road, while the Warriors are 8-2-1 ATS at home. It looked like the Warriors were going to suffer a disappointing loss at home to the shorthanded Sixers in their home game Monday but stormed back in the second half to eventually win by 20 points. They now have a +13.5 point differential, which is the best in the NBA. Look for them to keep rolling at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State is 0-5 against the spread and Wake Forest is undefeated this season, but my model has Oregon State as a one-point favorite. Wake Forest has not had a very difficult schedule, and Oregon State might be able to keep this closer than expected, if not win outright. This is definitely a bit of a contrarian play, but if you play systemically you need to trust it.

Rating: 2 Units

It's been a rough stretch for the Nuggets, who have lost five straight games. Three of those games came with Nikola Jokic (wrist) out, and he might not be back for this game, either, since he’s listed as questionable. Even if Jokic is able to return, the Nuggets will still be without Michael Porter Jr. (back), leaving them without one of their best scoring options. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS as road favorites and have a favorable opportunity to cover this small number.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a true home game for Arkansas State and not a neutral site tournament. The Red Wolves (soon to be possibly also be the Washington Football Team's nickname) are projected to win by seven via the SportsLine Projection Model and by 4.5 via ESPN BPI. A-State returns all five starters, 97.1 percent of minutes, 97.9 percent of scoring and 96.6 percent of rebounds from last season.

Rating: 2 Units

Rick Pitino's Iona team is coming off an upset win over Alabama in which the Gaels made just 4-of-21 3-pointers. The Gaels have a balanced attack, led by forward Nelly Junior Joseph, who averages 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. Four starters average double figures in points. In a game where the spread is just 3.5 points, free throw shooting could prove to be crucial, and Iona ranks third in free throw attempts while Belmont checks in at No. 222. Grab the points with the hot Iona team.

Rating: 2 Units

Folks, this is why I sit home all day monitoring numerous news feeds -- to get you guys the immediate information (and win some bets myself). Thankfully, I have an understanding wife! We crushed fading Georgia Tech earlier today because they were hit hard by the flu. Well, Xavier just ruled out starters Dieonte Miles and Colby Jones with fellow key players Jerome Hunter and Adam Kunkel as game-time decisions vs. the Hokies. The Musketeers are dealing with a flu bug, too.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jaguars have had only three games against Division I teams and their offense has struggled. They have averaged just 64.3 PPG in those games. The Rainbow Warriors have a very explosive offense as they are averaging 84 PPG. All five of their starters are averaging double-digit points. Only two Jaguars are doing that. Hawaii is likely the better team so taking any points here is a good deal.

Rating: 2 Units

This is too big of a spread for the Incarnate Word Thanksgiving Invitational game. This is a spot for Incarnate to show up in its own tournament. My model makes the Cardinals only three-point underdogs, so we are getting nearly a four-point edge. Grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Got destroyed on college hoops, I'll admit it. Still firmly believe I should have won two of the three and one was a bad beat of a lifetime. Oh well, we move on. This game is in Orlando and KenPom ranks Miami at 102 and North Texas 114. The last three games, Miami started four sixth-year players and a third-year player, owning a combined 27 seasons of experience. This early in the season, I'll take experience like that.

Rating: 2 Units

CBS Sports Network has this game from the Bahamas. KenPom ranks unbeaten Mississippi State six spots ahead of Louisville nationally. The Bulldogs have trounced their first four opponents but this will be an obvious step up in competition. Louisville has a home loss to Furman on its resume and comes off a not-impressive close home win over Detroit. MSU leads the SEC in field goal percentage (52.0) and three-point field goal percentage (45.7) and has four impact transfers. Louisville is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a dog. I believe this spread should be a few points higher.

Rating: 2 Units

No sport changes my mind about playing or not playing a game more than college basketball regarding injuries simply as they are so hard to track with nearly 400 schools in Division I. Well, I just happened across some pretty good injury news for New Mexico in this one as star guard Jaelen House, an Arizona State transfer, will play after missing the previous game, and senior guard Saquan Singleton, the Lobos’ top returning scorer/rebounder/assist leader from last year, will make his season debut off a heart abnormality. Frankly, I thought this spread was a couple of points too high regardless but now like the Lobos quite a bit in Las Vegas.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears are much better than the Rams offensively and defensively. The VCU defense has only allowed 52 PPG so far this season, but it hasn't faced an offense like Baylor. The Bears average 85.8 PPG and shouldn't slow down today. KenPom ranks BU as the fourth-best team in the nation and VCU 91st. This spread is too small for how good the Bears are.

Rating: 2 Units

 This is a true home game for New Orleans as it hosts the UNO Classic. This spread seems off via various models as SportsLine's has the Privateers winning by seven and ESPN's BPI by 10. New Orleans has perhaps the best backcourt in the Southland Conference in seniors Derek St. Hilaire (21.6 ppg) and Tony Green (10.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg). The Privateers won easily on Wednesday, while Presbyterian had to play down to the wire vs. VMI. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 at home.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Warriors are rested as they face the shorthanded 76ers. Philly is 2-6 SU and ATS without Joel Embiid, the wins and covers coming against the depleted Nuggets and the lowly Kings. Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and Danny Green all are questionable tonight. Even if they play, I like Golden State to improve to 8-3 ATS at home and 13-5 ATS overall. The Warriors rank first in defensive efficiency, by a wide margin, while Philly is 25th.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trail Blazers have struggled on the road, going 1-7 SU and ATS, but this is a good spot for them against the flailing Kings. After a poor start to the season, Damian Lillard has been outstanding over his last eight games. He had 25 points in 31 minutes last night. Sacramento is 2-7 SU at home and enters this one on a 1-8 SU and ATS skid. The Kings just lost by eight at home to a very depleted 76ers lineup. Back Portland.

Rating: 2 Units

 I have this game as +2.5 for UC San Diego. The Tritons have gone 3-0 against the spread so far this season, winning every game by double digits, and are facing a Montana squad that lost to North Dakota. I think we have a much closer game than five points, and UC San Diego might just win outright. Grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Hawks hit the road to face the Spurs, who are in complete disarray having lost five straight. Grab Atlanta.

Rating: 2 Units

The Baylor Bears aren’t being talked about enough with the top tier of teams. They are stacked. They have been dominant on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, the Bears rank sixth in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Sun Devils have been very inconsistent. Their offense has had a lot of troubles and they haven’t played a defense of Baylor's caliber. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulls' ascent in the Eastern Conference has been one of the best stories on the young season. But they are coming off their worst loss this season to the Pacers, 109-77. I expect this young team to have a letdown against a Rockets team that is overdue for a competitive game. Take Houston.

Rating: 2 Units

OK, I understand the Heat are in the second of a road/road back-to-back and that Minnesota is playing much better of late, but the Heat are underdogs? That truly baffles me. Hey, I'll take it. Dating to last season, Miami has covered its past seven in the second of a B2B.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a tough spot for the Lakers. They are a veteran-laden team that will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set. They have played two back-to-back sets this season and lost the second game of both. One was an eight-point loss to the Thunder, and the other was an 18-point loss to the Bulls. While LeBron James will return from his suspension, Anthony Davis just played 34 minutes last night while sick, so he might not be in top form. I’ll lay the points with the Pacers.

Rating: 2 Units

KenPom ranks Utah Valley at No. 188 and Nicholls State 215. While the SportsLine Projection Model has the Wolverines winning by a point in the SoCal Challenge, Sagarin has them by 4.3. Utah Valley has the WAC's best player in Fardaws Aimaq, who leads the Wolverines in both scoring (22.6 ppg) and rebounding (13.2 rpg). Utah Valley returns 10 players, including three starters, from last year's squad that won a share of the WAC regular season title. The school is coached by former NBA scrub Mark Madsen -- remember him dancing years ago at a Lakers title celebration?

Rating: 2 Units

This game will be the Huskies' real start to the season. They have played four really bad teams. They're averaging 92 points while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and nearly 40 percent from deep. They've allowed 51.3 points per game while holding opponents to 33 percent shooting. The Tigers got a scare from South Florida last time out. UConn is a much better team than Auburn. This spread is too small.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's get our day started on a winning note from the Bahamas. Is this spread wrong? The various models appear to think so. SportsLine's has Drexel winning by two points. ESPN's BPI has the Dragons has about a point better. CAA Preseason Player of the Year Camren Wynter for Drexel will be the best player on the floor.

Rating: 2 Units

KenPom ranks Fairfield 15 spots better nationally and this is a true home game for the Stags. The SportsLine Projection Model has them winning by 3. Sagarin and ESPN's BPI have it about the same. Fairfield played both Boston College and Providence tough, while Stony Brook is 0-2 on the road. Fairfield is one of four teams in the nation to welcome back more than 99 percent of its scoring and 99 percent of its minutes from last season.

Rating: 2 Units

 This spread seems too high at least according to various models -- SportsLine's has about the highest point differential I've seen at Campbell winning by 17. Campbell is a good Big South program but UMES has had some quality outings this season, only losing to Saint Joseph's by two and winning at Fordham. The Hawks should be able to stay within this number.

Rating: 2 Units

The model makes this one a seven-point spread, and it looks like Texas-Rio Grande Valley should be able to keep this game within double digits. The Vaqueros play with an elevated pace and can go on scoring runs. Grab them and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Friars are 5-0 on the season and already have taken down two Big Ten teams in Wisconsin and Northwestern. They now will face a Virginia team that struggles with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks them No. 156 in the country. No one has had an answer for Providence big man Nate Watson, who averages 18.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. The Friars are a top-50 team rebounding the ball on the defensive end, while Virginia checks in 200 spots lower in the same category. Lay the small number with the better team on a neutral court.

Rating: 2 Units

The wrong team is favored in this game. The Wolfpack have been terrible so far. They lost by 27 points yesterday while allowing 102 points. The Patriots have looked good on both ends of the floor. They are on fire from beyond the arc and that should continue against the Wolfpack’s terrible defense.

Rating: 2 Units

This play is a fade on the Thunderbirds. In their three games against Division I opponents, they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They have looked terrible on both ends of the court and they have shown no potential to get better. The Bulldogs are really strong defensively and they have shown some sparks offensively. The Bulldogs are a much better and more experienced team. They have good chemistry and it shows on defense. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Gonzaga is the number one team in the country for good reason. The Zags are stacked. But they have their hardest game of the season Tuesday against UCLA. Once they get ahead big here, they likely will rest starters. The Chippewas' offense has shown potential. This spread is too high.

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies are not expected to have Dillon Brooks or De'Anthony Melton tonight. It's a bad spot for Memphis against a surging Jazz team that's won and covered three straight. Utah has covered those three by an average of 13 points. The Jazz remember that Memphis stole Game 1 in Salt Lake City in last year's playoffs. Lay the points.

Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day

The Suns have won 12 games in a row, and nine of those victories have been by at least seven points. They did just play against Denver on Sunday, but neither Chris Paul, Devin Booker nor Deandre Ayton logged more than 28 minutes in the lopsided win, so they should be relatively fresh. The Spurs have lost seven of their last nine, with the two wins during that stretch coming against bad Orlando and Sacramento teams. I like the Suns to come through with another decisive victory.

Rating: 2 Units

This line looks cheap because the Bulls played Sunday and beat the gritty Knicks 109-103. But tonight it’s just the rudder-less Pacers trying to find themselves in Rick Carlisle’s scheme. They routed the Pelicans on Saturday to end a three-game slide, but I think Indiana's overall road woes (2-9 SU away) weigh more here than the Bulls playing yesterday.

Rating: 2 Units

My model has this one at 8.5. This is a huge matchup on the road for Belmont, and I think it might be a bit too tall of a task. The Tigers are 4-0 against the spread and have won every game by at least 16 points. Lay them with LSU.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is concluding a five-game homestand during which it won the first four contests after losing six straight overall. Three of those victories came against Milwaukee, Boston and Charlotte. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City lost the first two contests of its three-game road trip and is just 2-6 away from home this season. Expect the Hawks to cruise to their fifth straight win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pride are underrated. They're 1-3 but every game has been close. Dating back to last season, the Pride are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 as underdogs. The Spiders have been inconsistent, especially on defense. Their defense has been really bad the last three games and it has cost them two wins. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Tony Bennett's Virginia squad has looked uncharacteristically shaky out of the gate, starting the season 2-2. However, Georgia may be the Power Five's worst team this season and has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating that ranks it 189th in the nation. The Cavaliers have struggled to score through four games but have a good matchup here against a Bulldogs team that has a defensive efficiency rating that is No. 230 in the country. Virginia's tight defense should smother Georgia enough to cover the number.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pirates took care of business against the bad teams and then beat fourth-ranked Michigan. According to KenPom, they rank 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes had two scares against bad teams at home. Their last game was their first game on the road, and they lost to unranked Xavier. Now they have to face a better team in the Pirates. Lay the small number.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'll grab the favorite here as the model has it at -5.5 for the Badgers. This game is probably going to come down to turnovers, and Wisconsin has the edge there. The Badgers are eighth in the nation in turnovers allowed, while the Aggies are 22nd in turnovers forced. The high rate for Texas A&M has given it some good wins, but against a team that protects the ball like Wisconsin, the Aggies may have trouble covering.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's get this winning day started with an 11 a.m. ET tip from Jacksonville. Neither team is great with KenPom ranking Little Rock at No. 300 and Northern Illinois at 319. The Huskies have lost three straight in blowout fashion. They were picked to finish dead last in the MAC so I simply like Little Rock as the lesser of two evils. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Trojans winning by 6.

Rating: 2 Units

 I had this as a play at +7.5 Saturday night and the market has moved it another 1.5 points in my favor. I'll take it. The model makes this a 4.5 spread, meaning we are getting five points of value on this line by my numbers. Indiana State has quietly covered three of its first four games, including both as an underdog. This line is simply too big. I don't think Indiana State wins, but it won't lose by 10. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The wrong team is favored here. I make Northeastern -1.5, so we are getting a nice four-point edge. Both teams have been playing decent basketball, but I think this one comes down to a bucket at the end of the game, and I'll take the points in that scenario every time.

Rating: 2 Units

This line has fallen but there's still value on Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns are extremely stout defensively and they have the size to make Indiana work for every basket. The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games dating to last season, while Louisiana is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine versus teams with .600-plus winning percentages. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The model has Creighton favored by one point. Colorado State has only covered against Oral Roberts, failing to do so against Pine Bluff and Bradley, and now this will be their first game with a single-digit spread. I just don't see the Rams doing well enough to win by four points. If anything, the Bluejays have an advantage in the Paradise Jam semifinals because they have a tenured coach who has led them to back-to-back solid wins against Nebraska and Brown. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Have to say I don't get this spread whatsoever -- every model has Youngstown State as the favorite. SportsLine's has the Penguins winning by 7. ESPN's by 3.6. Sagarin's by 2.6. It's the third game in three days for both and that clearly favors the home side. Youngstown is 5-1 ATS in its past six as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Quakers have looked really good even with a 2-4 record. They have had a tough schedule. The Monarchs have had an easy schedule but have looked terrible. Their offense is a mess. The last two games, they scored 96 points combined on 30.4 percent shooting. The wrong team is favored in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Doc Rivers has already said Joel Embiid isn’t playing Saturday night at Portland, and the Sixers come off a huge win at Denver without him after five straight losses (0-5 ATS). Last game of a road trip. My theory: the Sixers are content with their Denver win and go back to being lousy without Embiid. The Blazers are 7-1 at home and have covered their last four as favorites. Huge home edge. Blazers to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

After a win over the Pistons, the Kings have reverted back to their struggling ways, losing both of the last two games by at least 10 points. Playing at home hasn’t helped them much this season, either, given their 2-5 record there ATS. This isn’t part of a back-to-back situation for the Jazz, so there shouldn’t be any rest days to worry about. This has plenty of blowout potential.

Rating: 2 Units

My numbers have DePaul winning this by 13 points and I would play 9.5 or -10 as well. DePaul has yet to lose ATS, going 2-0-1 to open the season. On Thursday they notched an upset win against Rutgers and now are less double digit favorites against Western Illinois. This is mostly because the Leathernecks beat Nebraska, but Nebraska just isn't playing well, and DePaul will be a much tougher test for Western Illinois. Trust the model.

Rating: 2 Units

I have the wrong team favored on this one as the model is making the Vaqueros -2. We've been pretty successful with the home underdogs so let's look to keep it rolling with this sizable edge. I'd play it all the way down to +1.5 but it's been going the other way today so you might be able to get an even better number before the 2 p.m. tipoff.

Rating: 2 Units

Drake has played two games so far, and the stat line already looks like a Drake one from last season when the team started 18-0. The Bulldogs shoot at a high percentage (53.5), defend well (37.7 shooting percent allowed) and are shooting 51.1 percent from 3-point land. They also have all five starters back. A well coached team of upperclassmen doesn't make mistakes often. The home edge for Drake against Richmond gives this more value than the number indicates. Bulldogs cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears have looked incredible to start this season. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball as they are ranked sixth in the nation in adjusted efficiency margin, per Kenpom. The Cardinal are 3-1 but haven’t looked good. In their one road game, they lost by 16 as a 3.5 point favorite. Now they have to go to Waco to face the reigning champions. The Bears amazing offense and fast pace should carry them to a huge win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

This seems like a big number considering how mediocre Michigan has looked and that UNLV is unbeaten, a veteran team and at home, although technically a neutral site at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in something called the Roman Main Event. I'd expect this game to do massive betting action because of the start time: 12:30 early Saturday morning ET. People love to chase on late-night games -- why Hawaii football home games do so well. That unusual tip time might affect the Wolverines a lot more than the Rebs as well.

Rating: 2 Units

Ah, the Clean Old-Fashioned Hate rivalry. This spread seems a bit off -- bet it drops by morning -- so I'll happily take the Dawgs and the points. Tech's lone loss is at home to a MAC school, while Georgia's is at a good Cincinnati team. The SportsLine Projection Model has Tech currently winning by a point and a few others I've checked list UGA as the favorite. Coach Tom Crean's club is led by three good veteran transfers in Aaron Cook, Kario Oguendo and Braelen Bridges.

Rating: 2 Units

Respect to readers if you can tell me where both Stetson and Lamar are located. Or if you know anyone named Stetson or Lamar personally (I don't know them but Georgia QB Stetson Bennett and of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson). Anyways, this line seems off. The SportsLine Projection Model has Lamar winning by 5. So does ESPN's power rankings. Sagarin has the Cardinals by 2. Stetson has been blown out in both road games and had a quick turnaround/travel after losing Wednesday at Miami of Ohio.

Rating: 2 Units

 Early projections show the Buffs should be around 10-point favorites for this Paradise Jam matchup in the Virgin Islands -- I actually attended that once. Quite fun. Colorado hasn't been challenged in a 3-0 start. The Buffs are averaging 90.3 points and shooting 51.5 percent from the field. Southern Illinois lost at Little Rock and beat Austin Peay so an obvious step up here for the Salukis. CU has outrebounded its three foes by 17 per game and will have a massive size advantage here. I'm thinking this spread rises a few points by tipoff.

Rating: 2 Units

Orlando is truly terrible, but there are rumors Kevin Durant will take the game off -- frankly, the Nets should still win, but not by more than 12 points without the NBA's No. 2 scorer.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Hornets recently had a tough road trip where they went 1-4. However, they have bounced back on their current home-stand with a 3-0 record. All three wins were against quality opponents in the Knicks, Warriors and Wizards. With LaMelo Ball leading the way, I like the Hornets to continue their recent hot streak at home.

Rating: 2 Units

we'll take this solid edge and continue to bet on home teams getting points. George Mason is coming off a big win over Maryland, which is probably what is giving JMU the value here (i.e. letdown for Patriots).

Rating: 2 Units

This pick is a fade on the Terrapins, who have looked terrible to start this season. They are 3-1, but it is easy to see this team isn’t good. The Terrapins have struggled on both ends but play at such a slow pace it doesn’t show up in the stats. Now they have to play against a good Hofstra team. The Pride are 1-2, but they have looked good and are elite from three-point range. That is where Maryland has had most of its defensive struggles. If the Pride get hot from downtown, they should win this game outright. But for safety, take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

this spread is too small for Georgetown. Siena has lost all three games by at least 18 points (0-3 ATS). The Saints were given +3 and +3.5 in their two most recent games, and they lost by 20 and 28. Those were against Delaware and Yale, and Georgetown is a level above those teams. Fade Siena until the Saints show they can keep a game anywhere near close.

Rating: 2 Units

We won on a good Norfolk State team -- won the MEAC last year and a game in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament -- on Tuesday against William & Mary and I'm pretty surprised at this number at Bowling Green. The 1-2 Falcons were picked to finish sixth in the MAC and have a loss to Western Carolina, which isn't as good as Norfolk Sate. The SportsLine Projection Model has BGSU winning by 4. So does Sagarin. I will be quite shocked if the Spartans don't cover this spread and frankly think they can win outright.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cowboys have looked great to start this season, dominating on both ends of the floor. Dating back to last season, Wyoming has covered its last eight games. The Cowboys' defense has been spectacular, holding both teams they played under 50 points. The Huskies have struggled offensively to start the season, shooting 33.9 percent. Take Wyoming.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have been hammered by injuries, which makes things a little tricky. The Nuggets likely will be without both Michael Porter Jr. (back) and Will Barton (back), while the 76ers are expected to be missing Joel Embiid (COVID-19), Matisse Thybulle (COVID-19) and Danny Green (hamstring). With those three out on Tuesday, Philadelphia lost by 35 points in Utah. Add in the Sixers' 2-6 record ATS as underdogs and I like Nikola Jokic to lead the Nuggets to a cover.

Rating: 2 Units

This spread is about five points too high for the Battle of the Palouse. Are you aware this is the longest continuous running rivalry in the country? It is now because the Ivy League didn't play last season. Wazzu hasn't won a game by more than 19 yet and those were at home. Idaho played both Long Beach State and Fresno State very tough in losses. Transfers Philip Pepple Jr. and Mikey Dixon have shined for the Vandals in the early going. It's a veteran team that is shooting 47.8 percent from behind the arc, ranking first in the Big Sky and 10th in the nation. Teams shoot better from deep at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Rutgers is 3-0 but has failed to cover the spread in each game. All three of its wins have come against teams ranked by KenPom No. 230 or lower. The Scarlet Knights have struggled to find their rhythm offensively ever since losing guard Jacob Young in the transfer portal to Oregon. DePaul enters as one of the nation's top rebounding teams and has four players averaging 13 points or better. Take the home underdog getting more than one possession.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Clippers are really thin injury-wise right now as on top of Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris all being out, which we knew, Nic Batum and Terance Mann probably are both sitting tonight as well. There's only so much Paul George can do by himself. This is also LA's first road game in 13 days and the front end of a B2B. Memphis is rested and healthy. I'd be willing to bet the Grizz are favored by tipoff.

Rating: 2 Units

UAB, the preseason C-USA favorite, is unbeaten but has faced UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and Division III program Rhodes College. Thus, I'm pretty surprised the Blazers in their first road game against a good Power 5 program are giving 2.5 points at South Carolina. One issue for the Blazers in the early going is rebounding and USC has a +45 rebounding edge through three games. Every model I can find has the Gamecocks winning outright -- SportsLine's by two points.

Rating: 2 Units

Fading Marquette didn't work out for me against Illinois, but I'll try again tonight with Ole Miss. The Rebels have a deep roster, they should commit fewer turnovers than the Illini did, and they're shooting 39.2 percent from deep. The Golden Eagles won't have the home crowd to fuel their pressure. Lay the small number.

Rating: 2 Units

My model is currently at a 57 percent win rate this year, 55-41-1 on the season and 38-20 (66 percent) in the last week. I preface this pick with the full track record because going against a huge team like Ohio State takes some guts and full trust in the model. The numbers are coming back with this game as a pick'em. This is going to be a contest that likely comes down to the final possessions, and in that situation, I'll take the home team with the points. Don't go any lower than +2.5 though.

Rating: 2 Units

The Friars are already battle-tested, going on the road to Wisconsin and coming home with a 63-58 win. They are now hosting a New Hampshire team that recently lost to Marquette, 75-70, but don't let the score fool you. In that loss, New Hampshire made 12-of-27 3-point attempts after going just 3-of-16 from downtown in its season opener. I expect a worse shooting performance tonight, which should allow the much better Providence team to pull away.

Rating: 2 Units

Both Damian Lillard (abdomen) and Norman Powell (ankle) are listed as questionable for Portland. Losing either player would be significant, considering how little amount of depth the Trail Blazers have. When Lillard sat out against Denver on Sunday, they lost by 29 points. The Bulls are hot right now, winning back-to-back games on the strength of DeMar DeRozan's offensive explosion. I think Chicago could win this game outright, even if Lillard and Powell play. If they don’t, the Bulls could run away with the victory.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's grab the points with Utah Valley. The Wolverines are coming off a 12-point win against Pepperdine in which they were 3.5-point underdogs, and my model makes them one-half point favorites versus the Beach. This isn't the biggest edge, but there's a good chance Utah Valley can win outright, and we get to cash in if it's a one-point contest as well.

Rating: 2 Units

Love those pick'em games because if we can't pick a winner outright, what are we doing here? I've had success on Pepperdine dating to last season and will back the Waves again at home. The SportsLine Projection Model has them winning by 11. I don't think that's right. ESPN power rankings has Pepperdine by 8.9 points. Also seems high. Sagarin by 1.5 points. This is the first-ever meeting between Pepperdine and UC Davis.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinal did get beat by a strong Santa Clara team, but Valparaiso is going to be much easier to defeat. Stanford beat San Jose State by 14 points on Monday, and I think this opponent is similar on a talent level. The Beacons have yet to cover or win this season and allowed Illinois-Chicago to upset them in overtime on Saturday. Stanford should cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a nice payback spot for the Thunder, who fell 124-91 in Houston on Oct. 22. That remains the Rockets' lone win. OKC had won four straight before losing its last two. We should get a nice bounceback game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored a season-low 10 points in Monday's loss to the Heat. Houston rookie Jalen Green was minus-37 in Monday's 34-point loss at Memphis, with three turnovers and one assist. He might have a bigger role as a creator if Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) can't play. Lay the small number.

Rating: 2 Units

Central Arkansas is off to a cold start. It lost by 35 and 32 to unranked opponents in its first two games. Now, it has to face a Baylor team that is red-hot. KenPom ranks Baylor as the sixth-best team in the nation, while Central Arkansas is terrible on both ends of the court. It is 322nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 346th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Both Bears teams play with pace, which favors a blowout. Lay the points with Baylor.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pistons already have a limited roster, but things are even worse now that Kelly Olynyk (knee) is out for an extended period. They did beat the Raptors without him, but they lost both of the other two games that he missed by at least 20 points. Those included a 22-point defeat at home at the hands of the Kings on Monday. Look for them to have a hard time scoring enough points to keep up with a Pacers team that should have Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis available.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wizards have won five straight to get to 10-3, and Bradley Beal is coming back tonight. But I'll back the Hornets to win their fourth straight because what they're doing is more sustainable. Washington needed a 19-point comeback to beat the lowly Pelicans last time out. Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off amazing games versus New Orleans and Orlando; he'll find it harder to maintain that level versus LaMelo Ball. Back Charlotte to improve to 7-1 ATS in the last eight home meetings.

Rating: 2 Units

ESPN has the Hawks by 2.2 points and Sagarin by 2.7. The Hawks are coming off a convincing 80-60 victory over NEC Champion Mount St. Mary's on Saturday. Drexel won this matchup by four last year, but the Hawks have won the past nine at home in the series.

 Los Angeles is looking to begin another winning streak after having its seven-game run snapped by Chicago on Sunday. Paul George is among the top scorers in the NBA with an average of 26.5 points per game and is coming off his fifth double-double of the season as he had 27 points and 11 rebounds against the Bulls. The Spurs are just 1-7 against Western Conference rivals and have allowed at least 114 in three straight contests. Take the Clippers.

Rating: 2 Units

The 76ers have gone 0-4 SU and ATS without Joel Embiid, but I like them to be competitive tonight at Utah. The Jazz have lost four of five and have been getting punished inside. Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond should have big games. The line is inflated based on Utah's performance at home last season. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Santa Clara has four guys averaging at least 14 points -- a lot of returning talent -- and ranks fifth nationally in shooting percentage (58.1) and eighth in assists per game (23.0). Nevada is solid but should not be giving 3.5 points on the road, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this number dip soon.

Rating: 2 Units

 Michigan 7-foot sophomore Hunter Dickinson gets his first real challenge tonight against Seton Hall, which features 6-10 Tyrese Samuel and 7-2 Ike Obiagu. The Pirates are relishing the underdog role as they visit Ann Arbor as part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. They shouldn't be fazed too much by the hostile atmosphere: their average age is 21.3 years old. The Wolverines, of course, are loaded again, but they are shooting 56.5 percent from the free-throw line. That could come into play late. Grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spartans were named the team to beat in the MEAC after winning it last year and reaching the Big Dance and are 3-0 for the first time 1995-96. William & Mary has lost its first two games by double digits. These schools are about 45 miles apart on I-64 in Virginia. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. I've seen this number rise to -3 already at some books so let's lock it in.

Rating: 2 Units

Normally, I might worry that this is the school's first road game of the year, but the Eagles have the nation's longest road win streak dating back to last season with 12 straight. D.J. Burns Jr. leads Winthrop in scoring at 23.0 ppg while shooting an absurd 72 percent. Middle Tennessee is 2-0 but has played two cupcakes. Winthrop is 16-5 ATS in its past 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boilermakers are loaded with talent, and according to KenPom, they rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They won their first two games by 29 and 25 points. Now they get to face the Wright State Raiders, who let up 96 points to Marshall in their last game. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Long Beach State is not a bad team -- it has a handful of good fifth-year seniors and added Joel Murray, a former Division II All-American, via transfer. He had 28 points for the Beach in the opener. I'm not saying UCLA is going to lose this game obviously, but it would be natural letdown spot off last Friday's big win in a potential Final Four preview vs. Villanova. For what it's worth, two seasons ago the Beach only lost by four at UCLA. I'd think they can stay within this big number.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams are in a similar spot. They both played Sunday (and won) and are missing a key star. The Lakers are without LeBron James (abdomen) and the Bulls are without Nikola Vucevic (COVID-19). On the bright side for the Bulls, Coby White is expected to make his season debut. The Bulls still have a lot of firepower with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball. I think Ball and Alex Caruso will make things difficult for Lakers guard Russell Westbrook and the Bulls get the win Monday.

Rating: 2 Units

I believe Providence has a more complete roster than Wisconsin, returning four starters from last year's team - including big man Nate Watson. The Badgers will have no answer for Watson, who is averaging 18 points, eight rebounds and two blocks so far this season. I think the Friars are more than capable of winning the game outright, so I love taking them with the points here.

Rating: 2 Units

Coach Stephen Silas suggested he's going to change the starting lineup of his 1-12 Rockets, and a good move would be benching Daniel Theis. Houston has been outscored by 21 points per 100 possessions with Theis on the floor. More minutes for 19-year-old Alperen Sengun (9.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) would be a plus. Either way, look for Houston to be more competitive tonight against the NBA's worst defensive team. Before getting blown out by Phoenix, the Rockets had played seven straight games in which they lost by 13 or less. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

 The Suns could be forced to play without Deandre Ayton (leg) for the sixth straight game. His absences haven’t slowed them down, though, considering that they are 5-0 with him out. They are 4-1 ATS on the road this season, which is where they will be again Monday. This could be another favorable matchup, considering the Timberwolves are just 1-6 ATS at home. They have lost five straight at home, four of which they lost by at least nine points.

Rating: 2 Units

Southern Miss could not find the basket from long distance against Louisiana on Friday. The Golden Eagles went 2-for-19 from 3-point range and and committed 25 turnovers while losing by 21 points. I think we are seeing a reaction to that performance in this line. I don't know if TCU is good enough to win by 15. The Horned Frogs only beat McNeese by 16 points in their season opener, and McNeese is consistently ranked among the bottom 15-20 teams in the nation. Grab Southern Miss and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

We're getting strong value with them at this number. Sacramento has had two days off after a stretch of four games in six days during which it went 0-4. The Pistons are coming off a 2-1 road trip but have lost three straight at home and four of five overall on their own court. Take the Kings.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics have had two days to stew over blowing a 19-point lead in Saturday's 91-89 loss in Cleveland. For the rematch, they get Al Horford and Josh Richardson back in the lineup. Look for Jayson Tatum (1 of 8 from 3-point range, 8 of 22 overall, six turnovers) to play much better as the Celtics get payback.

Rating: 2 Units

 I'll take the Citadel to give Presbyterian some trouble Monday. The Bulldogs just beat Pittsburgh outright by 15 when they were +10.5-point underdogs at the close. I think they will again outperform their expectations. The model agrees, making this game a pick'em. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland transfer Darryl Morsell (23.5 ppg) is carrying Shaka Smart's new team, but the other Golden Eagles are 8 for 41 from 3-point range. Tonight they host a loaded Illinois team. The Illini are relishing the chance to show they go a lot deeper than Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmo now plays for the Chicago Bulls, while Cockburn is serving the final game of a suspension. Led by Coleman Hawkins, Jacob Grandison, Trent Frazier and Andre Curbelo, the Illini have held their first two opponents to 33.6 percent from the field. Lay the points.

Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day

The Trail Blazers have been bad on the road this season, posting a 1-6 record there ATS. Now, they’ll have another uphill battle against the Nuggets with Damian Lillard (abdomen) ruled out. While he’s struggled with his efficiency, he’s still averaged 20 points per game. Filling in for him will be the likes of Anfernee Simons and Dennis Smith Jr. The Nuggets could roll here.

Rating: 2 Units

Vanderbilt hosts a Texas State team that is coming off an 84-59 loss at LSU. The Commodores return two starters from last year's team - including Scotty Pippen Jr., who averaged 20.8 points last season and was a Preseason First Team All-SEC selection. In Vanderbilt's 91-72 season-opening win against Alabama State, it shot just 28.6 percent from 3-point range. Texas State allowed LSU to shoot 55 percent from beyond the arc, so I expect Vanderbilt to bounce back from long distance and cover at home.