• Home
  • Buy Picks
  • Free Picks
  • Betting Lines
  • Leaderboards
  • Contact
  • Member Login
Michael Alexander Basketball Sides Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
02-05-25 Suns v. Thunder -11.5 109-140 Win 100 10 h 23 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are dominant at home, including a 14.4 net rating. Phoenix has allowed three of their last four opponents to exceed 120 points and those teams are all below OKC in offensive rating. The Thunder should feast at the rim and have a productive night. Oklahoma City already limited the Suns to 83 points once this season. The Thunder have the best defense in the league, and Phoenix's offensive rebounding isn't strong enough to punish them. OKC is off a pair of home wins by more than 25 points and 12-2-0 ATS since December started. Roll with the Thunder to strike in a major way today.

02-05-25 SMU -5.5 v. Virginia Tech 81-75 Win 100 9 h 23 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Virginia Tech comes in off back-to-back wins but the fact remains that the team is below .500 overall and in the conference. The Hokies are a pedestrian 7-5 at home, including a 10-point loss to Jacksonville, and four of their wins have come against teams ranked 250th or worse in the KenPom rankings. Virginia Tech has dropped their last two at home, falling to Wake Forest and Clemson by a combined 24 points. SMU is 4-2 on the road this season and have won their last three road games. The Mustangs are excellent on the offensive end of the floor and they should be able to gun their way to the victory here.

02-05-25 Arkansas +7.5 v. Texas 78-70 Win 100 9 h 20 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Calipari may have found something on Saturday in Kentucky as he employed his eighth different starting lineup this season. The Razorbacks' ball movement was exceptional, with more assists against the Wildcats than they had in the previous two games. They shot the ball well from the perimeter and got better as the game went along. This will be the second straight tough road contest for the Razorbacks, but it is a matchup that they may be able to exploit. The Longhorns are just 12th in the SEC in 3-point defense and 11th in turnover margin. That should allow the Razorbacks to again move the ball freely in the offensive end, looking for the best possible shot. Additionally, the Razorbacks should be competitive on the glass against a Texas team that is just 10th in the SEC in rebounds per game. Calipari-coached teams are typically stronger in the second half of the season and that time is upon us. He'll have this team ready to go, looking for another quality tier 1 win that they can add to their resume as March looms. Take Arkansas with the points.

02-05-25 Heat v. 76ers +1.5 108-101 Loss -110 9 h 47 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat are still missing Josh Richardson for this game, while the 76ers have ruled out Andre Drummond, and Joel Embiid for this one. The Heat have been struggling all season and they are coming into this one fresh off a loss to the struggling Bulls, so it's going to be tough to get back up and take on this 76ers squad who are starting to wake up. Yes, Joel Embiid is being rested due to left knee injury management, but Maxey has been on a tear lately and they are expecting to have Paul George back in the lineup. The 76ers are playing their second game of a back to back set, but I still prefer them over the struggling Heat at this point.

02-05-25 Grizzlies v. Raptors +9.5 138-107 Loss -105 9 h 35 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Raptors have won each of their last four home games when playing with a rest disadvantage and have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 home games against Western Conference opponents.

02-05-25 Spurs v. Hawks +5 126-125 Win 100 8 h 19 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs are still missing Charles Bassey and they are keeping eyes on Chris Paul and the newly acquired De'Aaron Fox who are both questionable for this one, while the Hawks will again be missing Jalen Johnson, Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic. You couldn't back either team with too much confidence these days, but it's the Spurs who open as favorites as they've been the slightly better team overall, but not by much. I get why the Spurs are favorites, but the Hawks would've taken plenty of confidence from their win on Monday and I think they represent decent value as the home underdogs in this spot, especially if Young can have another big game.

02-05-25 Cavs -5.5 v. Pistons 118-115 Loss -110 8 h 60 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Our power ratings favor the Cavaliers as road favorites in this one which is the play we’ll recommend with Detroit sitting 3-5 ATS with a rest advantage and Cleveland 6-4 ATS when playing off no rest this season. In games against Central Division rivals the Pistons are 2-7-1 ATS on the season with the Cavaliers at 6-3 with Cleveland also sitting 12-6 ATS as a road favorite. The Pistons are just 2-4 ATS across their last six games so take the Cavaliers to bounce back in Detroit tonight.

02-04-25 Heat v. Bulls +3.5 124-133 Win 100 10 h 57 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The underdogs have won each of the Bulls' last five games at United Center. The Heat have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents following a win and have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 16 games as favorites against Central Division opponents following a win. While the Bulls have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs following a road loss.

02-04-25 Oklahoma State v. Houston -21.5 63-72 Loss -108 9 h 54 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

A lot of things went in Oklahoma State's favor in that matchup for the Cowboys to simply stay within 13 points in the final margin. Houston led by 22 with under four minutes remaining, but Oklahoma State closed the game on an 11-2 run when the benches were empty. Houston, No. 3 in the country in three-point shooting this season, only shot 30-percent from beyond the arc in that contest. Houston, No. 10 in the country in offensive rebounding rate, only grabbed five offensive boards in that contest. The Cowboys received a very friendly whistle in that one as Oklahoma State generated 18 free throw attempts compared to six by the Cougars. Houston's sophomore forward Joseph Tugler had more fouls in 19 minutes (5) than Oklahoma State's entire starting five had in that game (4). Needless to say, we don't believe Oklahoma State will enjoy all of those breaks again on Tuesday night at the Fertitta Center. Three of Houston's four losses this season have come in overtime. The Cougars have bounced back from their three previous losses with a double-digit win in the following game. Those three wins came by an average of 28.3 points per game. We're expecting another result in that neighborhood tonight.

02-04-25 Rockets v. Nets +9.5 97-99 Win 100 10 h 30 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets have gone a little cold with three wins in a row and they are playing their second game of a back-to-back set, but they are still clear favorites despite losing to the Nets on Saturday. The Nets have the advantage of extra rest as they haven't played a game since the last meeting on Saturday.

02-04-25 Celtics +2 v. Cavs 112-105 Win 100 9 h 27 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics don't have any players listed on the injury report, while the Cavaliers are still playing without Isaac Okoro and Dean Wade. These teams have already met twice this season and it was the Celtics who won by three points back in November, before the Cavaliers won by 115-111 back in December. It's hard to imagine anything but another close contest, especially with both teams coming into this one fresh off impressive victories.

02-04-25 La Salle +19.5 v. VCU 66-96 Loss -110 8 h 1 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Explorers are No. 3 in the conference in turnover rate. When these teams met last season in Philadelphia, La Salle won the turnover battle 15-9. That game was tied with two minutes remaining before VCU made some late shots to earn the six-point win. La Salle has six wins over top-150 teams this season. We're not ready to call for the outright upset, but the Explorers can hang tough and this 18-point spread is quite rich. When they met in Philadelphia last season, VCU closed as a 5.5-point road favorite. When they met in Richmond the prior year, VCU closed as a 13-point favorite. The 18-point spread that we're seeing on Tuesday morning is significantly higher than any game these teams have played in the last decade. It's gone a little too far, in our opinion.

02-04-25 Purdue -6.5 v. Iowa 90-81 Win 100 8 h 58 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue has won the last three meetings between these squads by 14, 19 and 14 points. In their last five meetings, Purdue has scored an average of 81.4 points per game in this matchup. Purdue's offense is No. 1 in the Big Ten in efficiency, No. 2 in effective field goal shooting, No. 3 in turnover rate and No. 1 in two-point shooting. The Boilermakers have already won at Minnesota, Rutgers, Washington and Oregon. It's going to take a rough shooting night for Purdue to fall short of covering this number against a team that they have dominated in recent years.

02-04-25 Minnesota v. Penn State -7 69-61 Loss -108 8 h 47 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Penn State is a very good offensive team but that hasn’t helped them win games lately. They do have a major edge on the offensive end over a Minnesota squad that takes the air out of the ball and doesn’t do enough with their limited possessions to generate big offensive numbers. The Golden Gophers are just 1-4 on the road this season in addition to going 0-2 on neutral floor contests. Penn State is 10-3 at home and they have the ability to do damage on the offensive end of the floor. Minnesota doesn’t the firepower to keep up with Penn State, especially as the visiting team. Look for Penn State to snap their recent slide and pick up a home win here.

02-03-25 Pacers v. Jazz +7.5 112-111 Win 100 10 h 16 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Pacers have lost five of their last six games as road favorites following a home win and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents following a win. While the Jazz have won nine of their last 10 home games against Eastern Conference opponents after winning as underdogs and have covered the spread in each of their last five games following a win.

02-03-25 College of Charleston -3.5 v. William & Mary 75-90 Loss -108 9 h 37 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Charleston is the only team to beat Towson in league play thus far. The Cougars beat Elon and Campbell and lost to Wilmington by two. Charleston has performed better against better competition through out the season. William & Mary is No. 3 in the country in three-point shot frequency, with 51.5-percent of the Tribe's field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. As things get tighter in February and March, we tend to look to play against those teams. William & Mary went 3-for-25 from the three-point line against Campbell last week. When shots aren't falling, we can trust a well-rounded Charleston team to have a back-up plan. We're not sure the Tribe can say the same thing.

02-03-25 Jackson State v. Southern -7 89-91 Loss -110 8 h 4 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

When you play 14-straight road games to open the season, it's not a shocker that you don't have much in the tank for these back-to-back games. Southern leads the entire country in bench minutes this season. In Saturday's win over Alcorn State, ten players saw at least 13 minutes and no one played more than 27. Southern is the class of the SWAC this season, and we expect the Jaguars to handle business today.

02-03-25 Hawks +4.5 v. Pistons 132-130 Win 100 8 h 24 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Pistons have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back and have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games when playing with a rest disadvantage against the Hawks. While the Hawks have won eight of their last 12 games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents. Additionally, the underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Hawks and Pistons.

02-03-25 Wizards +4.5 v. Hornets 124-114 Win 100 8 h 22 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

We’re looking at the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference and there isn’t much to be enthusiastic about with either squad. Washington just snapped a 16-game slide and enters the game 2-21 on the road. They are 2-0 against the Hornets, however, and are 4-3 against the Southeast Division compared to 3-38 against everyone else. Charlotte is a banged-up team without Miller, Okogie and potentially Ball, which would take their top two scoring options out of the mix. The Hornets are 0-8 in divisional games, 8-18 at home and losers of four straight games. Given the injury issues and their struggles, back the Wizards with the points but don’t hesitate to sprinkle on the money line.

02-02-25 Grizzlies v. Bucks -3 132-119 Loss -108 10 h 49 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Memphis Grizzlies have won games and covered numbers all season, and that's with constant lineup changes. So I wouldn't talk you off the ledge if looking at the points, despite Morant and others not playing. The Milwaukee Bucks are also back to their inconsistent ways. With all that said, the Bucks are back home and playing a banged-up Grizzlies team. The Bucks are coming off ugly losses to the Spurs and Trail Blazers. If the Bucks can't dig deep and get a much-needed win over an injured team, it may be time to hit the panic button. It's just that simple. The Bucks have seen 16 of their 27 wins come at home. The Grizzlies have seen 11 of their 16 losses come on the road. There are no excuses for the Bucks. This is kind of a must-win in February. I'll lay the chalk.

02-02-25 Celtics -10.5 v. 76ers 118-110 Loss -110 7 h 13 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Neither team played on Saturday, so both are on equal rest heading into this one. The Sixers have covered the spread in each of their last five games, including outright upset wins over the Cavs, Bulls, Lakers and Kings. Boston has been guilty of some lackadaisical efforts this season, but if there was ever a time to turn it on during the regular season, this is it. Following this contest with the Sixers, Boston has to play at Cleveland and at New York. Look for Boston to take this game very seriously as the Celtics prep for some important games later this week. The revenge factor certainly helps, too.

02-02-25 Mavs +13.5 v. Cavs 101-144 Loss -115 5 h 53 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Mavericks have won each of their last four games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse when playing with a rest disadvantage and have covered the spread in each of their last six games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. The Cavaliers have lost nine of their last 11 day games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse against Mavericks teams that held a winning record.

02-02-25 Bulls v. Pistons -5.5 119-127 Win 100 4 h 27 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Pistons have lost each of their last 11 home games against Central Division opponents and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games against Central Division opponents. While the Bulls have won 18 of their last 20 games against the Pistons. Additionally, the underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the Bulls' last 11 games.

02-02-25 West Virginia +6 v. Cincinnati 63-50 Win 100 3 h 41 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Mountaineers have already played Arizona twice, Houston twice and Iowa State. Cincinnati has not played Houston or Iowa State yet in conference play. In Big XII play, the Bearcats' offense is last in offensive efficiency, last in effective field goal shooting, last in three-point shooting, last in free throw attempts and No. 15 in offensive rebounding rate. And like we just mentioned, those numbers are against a schedule that is missing the two best teams in the league. Bart Torvik makes Cincinnati a one-point favorite and Haslametrics makes Cincinnati a two-point favorite. We're more in line with those projections, instead of the -6 that we're seeing this morning.

02-01-25 Lakers +11 v. Knicks 128-112 Win 100 9 h 9 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Our power ratings favor the Lakers as road underdogs which is the play we’re going to recommend as 8-9 points is too much to be giving to LA especially when they’ve gone 7-2 straight up in their last nine games. Sure the Knicks are 14-9-1 ATS as a home favorite but the last time they were large favorites was against in-state rival Brooklyn winning 99-95 as 11.5-point favorites. Take the Lakers plus the points sitting third in defensive rating across their last five games.

02-01-25 Kings v. Thunder -8.5 110-144 Win 100 9 h 41 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

OKC probably felt like they let one get away in their 116-109 loss at Golden State on Wednesday leading for the entire first half only to be outscored by the Warriors 68-51 in the second half and we feel this is a perfect bounce back spot for them going 14-7-1 ATS as home favorites this season. The Thunder are just 4-4-1 ATS after a loss but their average margin of victory is 14 points in that scenario and we feel it fits right into our recommended play as the road looks to be catching up with Sacramento. Take the Thunder to win by margin at home on Saturday night led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging a whopping 40 ppg across his last six games.

02-01-25 Nets +15 v. Rockets 110-98 Win 100 9 h 36 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Nets are shockingly 16-9-1 ATS as road underdogs this season but they get a Rockets team that’s 8-4 ATS across their last 12 games and 10-4 ATS off a loss which will be the case on Saturday with the team losing a heartbreaker in Memphis 120-119 after being up eight with six minutes left in the game. Alperen Sengun missed that game and is considered questionable for Saturday’s game against the Nets. We don’t think that matters here, and while Brooklyn is off a 104-83 win at Charlotte, they averaged just 91.5 ppg in the seven games prior to that.

02-01-25 Nuggets v. Hornets +13 107-104 Win 100 8 h 33 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

I can give every number imaginable to benefit the Nuggets, but you have to look at some of the intangibles. The first is that they had to travel from Philadelphia to face the Hornets on Saturday night after barely beating a team that is just as decimated as the Hornets. Charlotte at least played hard on Friday and did cover the game. The only good news about losing Williams is that players like Frenchman Moussa Diabate get a chance to play and he is starting to shine, especially on the backboards. The Nuggets' lack of depth also plays a role here and the fact that they are on the road in their fifth game in seven days helps the underdog cover here.

02-01-25 Mississippi Valley State v. Arkansas-Pine Bluff -12.5 79-76 Loss -115 5 h 47 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Golden Lions are coming off a pretty sloppy loss to a struggling Grambling team in their last outing, but they didn’t play too badly statistically—outside of the 13 turnovers that is. AR-Pine Bluff shot 49.2 percent from the field and won the rebounding battle 33-29, but also gave up 52.8 percent shooting on the other side. The Lions have been at 67 points or more in five of the seven games during this current losing streak, and if they can reach that threshold here ARPB should be in good shape. MS Valley State has been below 59 points in five straight, so they likely won’t put up much of a fight on the scoreboard. 

02-01-25 Magic v. Jazz +6 99-113 Win 100 6 h 43 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Orlando is 2-9 straight-up, 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 games. The Magic kicked off their West Coast roadtrip with a 29-point loss in Portland on Thursday. When Utah beat Orlando last month, Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen and John Collins were all out of the lineup for the Jazz. That trio is now back. Also, take a look at who the Jazz have played in their last five games: Oklahoma City, Memphis, Milwaukee, Golden State and Minnesota. There are a lot of teams that will go 0-5 in that stretch. Orlando represents a drop in class compared to what Utah has been facing recently.

02-01-25 Virginia Tech v. Virginia -4 75-74 Loss -106 4 h 20 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The biggest reason why we're looking toward Virginia in this contest is the Hokies' issue with turnovers. Virginia Tech is turning the ball over on 20.2-percent of its possessions and the Hokies are last in the ACC in turnover rate. Tony Bennett is no longer at the helm in Virginia, but the Cavaliers are still playing at the second-slowest pace in the country. Virginia's games are only seeing an average of 60 possessions per contest. If you're Virginia Tech and you're only going to see 60 possessions in this game, you can't afford to turn the ball over in 20-percent of those.

02-01-25 Kansas +3 v. Baylor 70-81 Loss -114 2 h 24 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The strength of each team is their play in the paint, as Dickinson and Omier are two of the top players in the conference. The difference is that Dickinson is 7'2 and Omier is only 6'7, the Kansas big man will have a field day in the paint. Baylor is only 77th in the nation in defensive efficiency, they will be going up against a Kansas offense that ranks 29th in efficiency. Baylor will be forced to send more defenders to stop Dickinson and Adams inside, which will open up the perimeter for Mayo and Harris. The Jayhawks are loaded with talent and are hungry for a statement win after losing a close overtime game against Houston. Kansas has one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking 5th in efficiency, their length will bother Baylor. Kansas has the better and bigger of the star post players in this game and will cover the number.

01-31-25 Suns v. Warriors +2 130-105 Loss -115 11 h 4 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The entire Pacific Division is only separated by 3.5 games with our power ratings slightly favoring the Warriors as 1-2 point home underdogs. We’re going to side with the home Warriors for this one who have gone 4-1 ATS across their last five games as it seems like Andrew Wiggins is finding his groove again averaging 21.5 ppg across his last five games. Brandin Podziemski and Dennis Schroder are also holding their own off the bench with Podziemski specifically averaging 14.5 ppg this month while only averaging nine ppg on the season. It’s also worth noting that both of these teams played on Wednesday and when playing on equal rest the Warriors are 15-8 ATS on the season. Look for Golden State to keep rolling against a Suns team playing in their first road game in nine days.

01-31-25 Indiana v. Purdue -12 76-81 Loss -108 9 h 39 m Show

Rating; 2 Units

When these teams met in West Lafayette last season, Smith finished with 19 points on 8-for-13 shooting, with nine rebounds, four assists and four steals with only two turnovers in 36 minutes. Find the results on Indiana's schedule that would give you confidence in the Hoosiers in this matchup. Indiana did not play a true road game in non-conference play. In the Hoosiers' neutral site games against Louisville and Gonzaga, they lost by 28 and 16. In conference play, Indiana has lost by 17 at Nebraska, by 25 at Iowa and by nine at Northwestern. In a rivalry matchup like this, don't expect Coach Painter to take his foot off the gas in the second half if the opportunity is there to make a statement in front of the home crowd.

01-31-25 Nuggets v. 76ers +9.5 137-134 Win 100 9 h 39 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

We think Tyrese Maxey has another big game after being snubbed from the All-Star Game reserves which were released last night and has averaged 33 ppg across his last six games. The Nuggets are just 7-10 ATS as a road favorite and this is the first of a back-to-back for them playing in Charlotte tomorrow night. Philadelphia is top ten in defensive rating across their last four games and while we don’t think the 76ers get the straight up win, they will keep it within single digits with guys like Ricky Council IV and Guerschon Yabusele finally finding a groove within the rotation.

01-31-25 Clippers v. Hornets +13 112-104 Win 100 7 h 4 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers have lost five of their last six road games following a road win. The Hornets have won two of their last three games as underdogs following a loss and have covered the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs after losing as favorites. While the Clippers have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 20 night games following a road win.

01-31-25 Akron +3 v. Kent State 85-71 Win 100 8 h 46 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Zips have been a more reliable team, especially in conference play. They're a strong free throw shooting unit, and Kent State allows plenty of trips to the charity stripe. Akron owns the MAC's highest-scoring offense, and that production hasn't dipped in conference away games. Expect the Zips to score another 80+ points. That's a mark the Golden Flashes can't keep up with. Kent State doesn't shoot well enough to consistently score against the Zips. Turnovers will be an issue for the Golden Flashes offense also. Bet on Akron finishing January undefeated.

01-31-25 Harvard v. Columbia -4 90-82 Loss -115 8 h 42 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Harvard may have won 11 straight meetings in this series but this clearly isn’t the Crimson of old. They struggle on the offensive end of the floor and are below average on the defensive end of the floor this season to boot. Columbia has been very good offensively and were rolling in non-conference play. While the Lions have lost five straight, they are 8-2 at home on the year while owning a road win over Villanova back in November. Harvard is just 3-7 on the road with their best win coming over a Brown squad that is 223rd in the KenPom rankings this season. The Crimson doesn’t have the weapons to hang in with the Lions as Columbia earns a home win to earn their first conference win of the year.

01-30-25 Seattle University v. Grand Canyon -10 74-83 Loss -105 7 h 50 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Antelopes took care of a struggling Utah Tech team pretty well in their last outing, shooting a nice 58.3 percent from the field. Grand Canyon got a little careless with the turnovers (14) but otherwise, it was a nice effort—outside of the 17-5 deficit on the offensive glass, anyway. During this current 9-1 run, the Antelopes have scored 68 or more points in every win, with 73 or more in eight of those. As for Seattle, they were outmuscled on the boards 39-29 in their last outing versus Utah Valley and shot just 14-of-22 (63.6 percent) from the field. The Redhawks have managed 122 combined points in their last two games so it’s tough imagining them keeping pace with the Lopes if Grand Canyon plays to their capabilities.

01-30-25 Magic v. Blazers +5.5 90-119 Win 100 11 h 20 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Portland is 9-3 ATS against the Eastern Conference this season with Orlando sitting just 4-8-1 ATS against the Western Conference. The only blemish on Portland’s injury report is Jerami Grant who is questionable with an ankle injury. It’s also worth noting that these two met just a week ago in Orlando with Portland coming away with a 101-79 win. Take the Trail Blazers plus the points at home once again with the Magic going just 1-6 ATS across their past seven games.

01-30-25 Cal-Irvine -16 v. Long Beach State 80-75 Loss -123 6 h 46 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Anteaters are coming off a sloppy overall game versus Hawaii (14 turnovers) but didn’t play too badly otherwise. UC Irvine posted 44.3 percent shooting from the field and held the Warriors to just 31.1 percent on the other side during the victory. During this current 8-1 run, UC Irvine has posted 71 or more points in eight of nine games, so they should be able to notch a solid total against Long Beach State. Speaking of the Beach, they’ve been giving up quite a bit on defense lately. LBSU has surrendered 73 or more points in seven straight outings, a 1-6 run. Even at home, it’ll likely be tough for the Beach to hang with the Anteaters if UC Irvine gets going on the scoreboard.

01-30-25 Rockets +5.5 v. Grizzlies 119-120 Win 100 11 h 43 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

This is the fourth and final game of Houston’s road trip as they look to extend their overall winning streak to five, defeating the likes of Boston and Cleveland on the road during this run. Our power ratings favor the Rockets tonight which is the play we’ll recommend tonight with Houston going 6-2-1 ATS as an away underdog on the season. They’re also 8-2 ATS in divisional matchups and rank eighth in defensive rating across their last ten games with Memphis sitting just 24th across their last ten. We don’t think Houston wins this game outright but 5-6 points is too much to give them in such a crucial matchup. Take the Rockets to keep it within a basket or two by game’s end.

01-30-25 Hawks v. Cavs -9.5 115-137 Win 100 8 h 15 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland is on the second leg of a back-to-back after defeating Miami last night 126-106 and are 5-4 ATS off no rest on the season. Our power ratings and game line are even with one another as we’ll recommend a play on the Cavaliers as double-digit home favorites with Atlanta also playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela tonight with Zaccharie Risacher questionable as well. Darius Garland missed last night’s game for Cleveland but is slated to be back in the lineup tonight with Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert also missing last night’s action. Regardless of the status of Okoro and LeVert, we think Cleveland picks up another win, sitting an NBA best ATS off a win at 25-12 on the season.

01-30-25 Towson v. Delaware +2.5 76-66 Loss -107 8 h 2 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Sometimes you have to go with teams that play better at home against a squad that played on Monday night on the road. Towson played in Boston on Monday and Delaware was off. The Blue Hens are shooting 47.6% from the field at home and 38.2% from long range. Towson's offense is streaky, but coming off a road game three days before will mean the legs are not fresh. Another major concern for Towson is their free throw shooting, which is even worse away from home (62.1%).

01-29-25 Thunder v. Warriors +10.5 109-116 Win 100 11 h 16 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

This is the second leg of a back-to-back for Golden State but we’re anticipating their best player in Curry will be fresh and ready to go. The Warriors haven’t been in the best shape as of late but they are 3-1 ATS across their last four games with OKC going just 1-4 ATS across their last five games. The Thunder are just 4-4-1 ATS with a rest advantage as Brandin Podziemski has been a splash since returning from injury averaging 16 points, five rebounds and four assists per game through three games in January. We’re not saying the Warriors win by any means but they do keep it a game at the end ranking top ten in fourth quarter ppg and OKC ranking 22nd.

01-29-25 Alabama +1.5 v. Mississippi State 88-84 Win 100 8 h 55 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

In their two meetings last season, the Crimson Tide didn't even shoot well but they just bludgeoned the Bulldogs with shot volume. Alabama shot 32.9-percent from three-point range, but Oats knows how to play the numbers game in these matchups. Mississippi State only made a total of 11 three-pointers in those two games. When you're playing against the fastest-paced team in the country, that formula is simply not going to work. In conference play, Mississippi State is shooting 28.3-percent from three-point range. The Bulldogs have not shown that they can make up the three-point differential in this matchup against Alabama.

01-29-25 California v. SMU -11.5 65-76 Loss -110 7 h 41 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

I expect the Mustangs to put an end to the Golden Bears’ winning streak. Cal just barely outlasted the hapless Miami team, showing a lot of flaws in its defensive game once more. The Golden Bears allow 109.4 points per 100 possessions in the conference play (16th in the ACC) and are 219th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (108.4 points per 100 possessions). SMU is a very dangerous offensive team and arguably a better defensive unit than Cal. The Mustangs make 38.3% of their 3-pointers (20th in the nation) and hold their rivals to 45.2% shooting from inside the arc (also 20th). Thanks to Samet Yigitoglu and Yohan Traore, the Mustangs defend the paint at an elite level, so I will lay 11.5 points with SMU. 

01-29-25 Nuggets +3.5 v. Knicks 112-122 Loss -115 9 h 53 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Nuggets plus the points here which is the play we’re going to recommend going 5-2 ATS on the season as a road underdog. Despite their back-to-back losses, the Nuggets are still 8-3 ATS across their last 11 games and will look to get revenge against a Knicks team that defeated them 145-118 back on Nov. 25. Aaron Gordon missed that game and although he comes off the bench now, the Nuggets are a more competitive team on defense with him in the rotation. Sure the Knicks have scored 143 points in two straight games, but we see some regression to the mean tonight with Denver ranking top ten in lowest three-point field goal percentage allowed on defense as well as free throw attempts allowed. Take the Nuggets to keep it within a bucket or possibly pick up a win tonight led by Nikola Jokic who has racked up a triple-double in six of his last seven games.

01-28-25 Bucks v. Blazers +5.5 112-125 Win 100 7 h 36 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Bobby Portis missed last night’s game for Milwaukee and is currently questionable for tonight. The Bucks played with a somewhat restricted rotation as seven different players played between 26-41 minutes. Portland is 9-13 straight up at home but 11-8 ATS as home underdogs and 8-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. We also feel like Portland will get up for this game as it’s one of their only games nationally televised this season on ESPN or TNT. The Bucks are just 2-4-1 ATS off no rest with Portland coming in second in defensive rating across their last five games. Take the Trail Blazers plus the points as they keep it within one score at home tonight.

01-28-25 Fresno State +8.5 v. Wyoming 72-83 Loss -110 10 h 2 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs will struggle to contain the Cowboys on the glass, but they should be able to keep it close and cover a 7.5-point spread. Wyoming is a turnover-prone team, and Fresno State loves to play aggressive defense on the ball. The Cowboys play at a slow pace, recording 64.2 possessions per 40 minutes (321st in the nation). On the other side, the Bulldogs love to run up and down the floor, causing havoc on both sides of the ball. They have a few dangerous scorers with Zaon Collins leading the way, so I’m going with Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-2 ATS in their previous six dates with the Cowboys, who are 1-4 ATS in their previous five outings at any location. 

01-27-25 Iowa State +2.5 v. Arizona 75-86 Loss -108 11 h 1 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Iowa State has only lost one game in the last two months, and that came at West Virginia where the Cyclones shot 1-for-17 from three-point range. That was certainly an outlier performance for a team that shoots 35.0-percent from beyond the arc. What other faults does Iowa State have? The Cyclones are top-10 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. We've got one battle-tested team that has already beaten the likes of Marquette, Baylor, Texas Tech and Kansas, facing another battle-tested team that has lost every "big" game that it has played thus far. Until we see something to change our mind, we know which side we prefer to be on.

01-27-25 Wizards +12.5 v. Mavs 108-130 Loss -108 9 h 39 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Washington Wizards are probably the worst team in the league, and they're going to continue getting these crazy lines. I still can't get there with the Mavs who are still down several rotation players and now just saw Maxi Kleber go down with a broken foot. I can't lay double-digit chalk with a team so banged up. The Wizards have covered four of their last seven games as a double-digit underdog. The Mavs have failed to cover six of their last nine games.

01-27-25 Grizzlies +3.5 v. Knicks 106-143 Loss -108 8 h 20 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Grizzlies are the best ATS team in the league in non-conference matchups at 14-3 with the Knicks going just 7-7 ATS in that scenario. New York is 5-7 ATS across their last 12 games with Memphis going 8-4 ATS during that same stretch. The Grizzlies rank 12th in defensive rating in their last 10 games with New York sitting 23rd during that same time and on offense Memphis sits first in rating across their last 10 games. It’s also worth noting that Josh Hart is questionable for this game and if he were to miss or be limited in any way, the Knicks could be in trouble with a short rotation as it is. Take the Grizzlies to keep it within a basket tonight in New York averaging 129 ppg across their last five games.

01-27-25 Magic v. Heat +2 119-125 Win 100 8 h 46 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

These are the top two teams in the Southeast Division but that isn’t saying much seeing that the Magic is one game over .500 while the Heat are right at the .500 mark. Orlando did get a boost late last week with the return of Franz Wagner after he missed six weeks with an oblique injury, though having Suggs leave without returning Saturday could deal another blow to the team. The Magic struggles on the offensive end of the floor and will be challenged by a Heat team that is fairly sound defensively. Watching what happens with Butler will be interesting but playing at home, you have to give the upper hand to Miami here, especially given Orlando’s issues of late.

01-27-25 Rockets v. Celtics -6 114-112 Loss -110 8 h 43 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

This is a sell-high spot for the Rockets, as they just defeated the Cavaliers twice in a row, but will not be able to keep it going against the Celtics. Houston had those two good wins, but they lost games against the Pistons and Kings over their last five games as well. The Rockets will be without Jabari Smith Jr. in this game, which not only hurts their depth, but takes away one of their best defenders at the forward position, which is not a great spot when facing the Celtics. Houston will run out of guys to defend Tatum and Brown, which will allow the Celtics to run their offense through their two stars. Boston just won three out of four difficult games away from home, they are now back in Boston and will pick up a win here. The Celtics won by 25 in Houston last time they played, they will be able to cover this much smaller line here.

01-27-25 Pistons v. Cavs -10 91-110 Win 100 8 h 1 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

These two met way back on Oct. 25th with Cleveland securing a 113-101 home win, but Jaden Ivey scored 22 points in that game who will miss tonight and should Harris sit, offense could be at a premium outside of Cade Cunningham and Malik Beasley with the Cavaliers sitting top ten in fewest points in the paint allowed on the season. Despite their three-game losing streak Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell have been playing excellent on offense with Mitchell specifically scoring 33+ points in four of the team’s past five games. Take the Cavaliers to win comfortably tonight going 5-3 ATS in divisional matchups with the Pistons going just 1-5-1 against the Central Division on the season.

01-26-25 Wichita State -4.5 v. Tulsa 77-84 Loss -110 4 h 12 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Shockers are coming off back-to-back losses against East Carolina (by three) and Memphis (Wichita led with under five minutes remaining). In non-conference play, the Shockers earned some impressive wins over Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, Minnesota and Kansas State. In the 13-team AAC, Tulsa's offense ranks No. 12 in efficiency, No. 12 in effective field goal shooting, No. 10 in three-point shooting and No. 11 in free throw shooting. And like we already mentioned, those numbers are almost-exclusively against the bottom-half of the league.

01-25-25 Lakers -1 v. Warriors 118-108 Win 100 9 h 9 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

LA is 7-2 ATS in divisional games this season with the Warriors going just 1-7 ATS in the same scenario. We’re not sure what to make of the Warriors wild rotation at the moment with five different players logging 20+ minutes in their win over the Bulls. The Lakers rank fourth in defensive rating across their last five games with Golden State sitting bottom five during the same stretch and with Vanderbilt returning, their defense only improves from here. Take the Lakers to win their third straight game tonight against a short-handed Warriors team that’s just 8-13 ATS off a win and 3-7 ATS across their last ten games.

01-25-25 Connecticut v. Xavier -1 72-76 Win 100 9 h 29 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

UConn famously got swept in the three-game Maui Invitational by Memphis, Colorado and Dayton. That win over Texas isn't holding much weight, since the Longhorns are 2-4 in SEC play. That win over Gonzaga is not holding up very well, considering the Bulldogs just lost back-to-back conference games for the first time since 2014. UConn needed overtime to get past Butler at home on Tuesday after losing at home to Creighton last Tuesday. UConn also needed overtime to get past Xavier in their first meeting this season in mid-December. Xavier's 6-foot-9 senior Zach Freemantle was missing from that contest as the Huskies out-rebounded Xavier 35-27, including 14-7 on the offensive glass. Freemantle is back for this one, setting the stage for a much different result. Look for the Musketeers to get their revenge.

01-25-25 Ole Miss +3.5 v. Missouri 75-83 Loss -110 6 h 43 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Rebels posted some pretty rough stats against Texas A&M in their latest loss though, shooting just 36.9 percent from the field with a 48-31 rebounding deficit and 13 turnovers. The 14 points off 20 Aggies turnovers were helpful, though. Ole Miss had scored 73 or more points in four straight games prior to that. As for Missouri, they shot a rough 31.3 percent from the field and got outmuscled on the boards 39-31 in their latest loss to Texas. The Tigers had put up 75 or more points in four straight prior to that (all wins) so if both teams can bounce back from their respective losses we’ll have a high-scoring finish. I like Ole Miss to power it out in the end, though.

01-25-25 Celtics -8 v. Mavs 122-107 Win 100 6 h 13 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Boston is one of the worst ATS teams in the league at 17-27-1 on the season, but they’re 10-3 ATS off a loss which is second best in the league. In the Mavericks win against the Thunder, they shot 36 free throw attempts and we don’t see that happening tonight with Boston allowing just 18 free throw attempts per game on the season. At this point we know the Celtics offense generally comes from beyond the arch in which the Mavericks rank bottom half of the league in three-point percentage allowed on the season and bottom five in three-point percentage allowed in their last three games. Look for Boston to bounce back how they have before this season after a loss and win big in Dallas tonight.

01-25-25 Georgia v. Florida -10.5 59-89 Win 100 5 h 5 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Per KenPom, Georgia played the No. 311 non-conference schedule, and that is catching up to the Bulldogs in SEC play. Outside of a two-game tournament in the Bahamas in mid-November, Georgia did not leave the Peach State for the first two months of the season. That lack of road experience has caught up to the Bulldogs, with a 12-point loss at Ole Miss, an 18-point loss at Tennessee and a three-point loss at Arkansas. We expect another double-digit loss in Gainesville today.

01-24-25 UCLA -5 v. Washington 65-60 Push 0 12 h 4 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Washington started the year with some nice non-conference wins over Santa Clara and Washington State, but the Huskies are 1-7 in Big Ten play. One of those losses came by 11 points at UCLA in early-December. The Bruins only shot 50-percent from the free throw line in that contest (11-for-22), so the margin should have been even greater. UCLA's defense held Washington to 38.8-percent shooting from the floor, including 3-for-16 from three-point range. Those seven losses in conference play have come by an average of 15.9 points per game, and six of those seven losses came by double digits. We expect another one tonight.

01-24-25 Blazers +5 v. Hornets 102-97 Win 100 8 h 26 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Portland is now 7-3 ATS in non-conference games and 13-9-1 ATS as road underdogs with Charlotte losing ATS in all four games they’ve been listed as a favorite this season. Our power ratings slightly favor the Trail Blazers which is the play we’ll recommend here with optimism around Ayton returning tonight. It also helps that Portland is the second best ATS team in the league off no rest at 5-1-1 and they’re ranked seventh in defensive rating their last five games. Take the streaking Trail Blazers to keep it within a couple baskets in Charlotte tonight.

01-24-25 Cavs -10 v. 76ers 129-132 Loss -108 8 h 23 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia is the worst ATS team in the league at 13-27-2 which includes going 3-6-1 ATS as a home underdog and currently on a nine-game ATS losing streak. Four of those past five have come as double digit underdogs and while the Cavaliers will be shorthanded themselves tonight we have to side with them as double-digit road favorites even though our power ratings slightly favor the 76ers. Jarrett Allen should have a field day inside and the combo of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell will be too much for Tyrese Maxey and Paul George as the talent drop off is quite significant from those two to the rest of the 76ers team tonight. Cleveland is 4-2 ATS after a loss so let’s take them to win by double digits in Philadelphia against a 76ers team still searching for some sort of identity without Embiid consistently on the court.

01-23-25 San Francisco +10.5 v. St. Mary's 51-71 Loss -110 10 h 11 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels are only shooting 48.4-percent from two-point range in those six contests, which is 2.6-percent below the national average. That's a little concerning. Saint Mary's is shooting below the national average from two-point range and the free throw line, and the Gaels are outside the top-300 in three-point attempts. You can get away with that against Pacific and Portland, but beating San Francisco by double digits is a different story. When these teams met in Moraga last season, Saint Mary's won by four in a game that neither team led by more than seven points. We're anticipating a similar back-and-forth contest in this one.

01-23-25 Maryland v. Illinois -7.5 91-70 Loss -108 10 h 6 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Illinois at home is the play here, as they will have the ability to take away Maryland's biggest strength in this game. There is no secret to Maryland's success, they pound the ball into the post to Queen and Reese, as they are typically bigger than their opponents. That will not be the case here, as Illinois has a big front line that includes the 7'1, 230 pound center out of Croatia, Tomislav Ivisic. He will be able to take shots away from their bigs, and force Maryland to play more on the perimeter, away from their strengths. Illinois has the 9th most efficient defense in the country according to KenPom, and will make the Terrapins work for good looks here. On the other end, the Maryland bigs have to respect Ivisic from the outside, the Illinois big man has 28 made threes on the season, this will drag Queen or Reese away from the rim, and open driving lanes for the other Illinois scorers. The Illini are one of the top teams in the Big Ten, and will prove it with a strong showing here.

01-23-25 Appalachian State v. Arkansas State -7 55-65 Win 100 10 h 59 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Mountaineers have won-and-covered each of their last five games, but today's trip to Jonesboro represents a tall task. App State is shooting 40.5-percent from three-point range in conference play thus far. Last year, the Mountaineers shot 35.1-percent from beyond the arc in the Sun Belt, so regression from the three-point line is likely on the horizon. App State's schedule is loaded with slow-paced teams, and the Mountaineers may get overwhelmed by Arkansas State's speed. You have to go back to November 24 to find the last time App State played a team rated inside the top-100 in adjusted tempo (William & Mary). Since then, the Mountaineers' schedule has been loaded with slow-paced teams that are bad on offense. That changes today.

01-23-25 Mavs v. Thunder -13 121-115 Loss -108 10 h 32 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Our power ratings favor the Mavericks but with the line shifting two points in the Thunder’s favor since it opened and Dallas just 2-5 ATS across their past seven games we’re recommending a play on OKC as large home favorites. The Mavericks actually beat OKC 106-98 at home six days ago but the Thunder didn’t have SGA for that game in which they’ll be looking for revenge. The Thunder did beat the Mavericks in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals 118-104 with all of Irving, Doncic and Thompson playing in that game for Dallas and SGA scoring 39 points. Isaiah Hartenstein is set to miss his fifth straight game but Dallas will be without at least two of their star players or possibly all three in OKC tonight.

01-22-25 Kansas State +13 v. Baylor 62-70 Win 100 8 h 59 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Baylor's two best wins this season against Arizona State and Saint John's both required overtime. The Bears' win over Cincinnati has lost a little shine, considering the Bearcats are 2-5 in Big XII play. Baylor's win over Arkansas has lost a bit of shine, considering the Razorbacks are 0-5 in SEC play. Kansas State has had an extra day to rest and prep for this one. Banking on a top-tier effort from the purple 'Cats has been tough this season, but we're certainly not interested in laying double-digits with this Baylor team right now.

01-22-25 La Salle v. St. Louis -9.5 52-64 Win 100 7 h 56 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Explorers are coming off a 22-point loss at UMass on Sunday. Saint Louis has had an extra day to rest and prep for this one, plus the Billikens are playing at home where they have only lost one time this season. Indiana State transfer Robbie Avila is really hitting his stride after battling some early-season injuries. Avila finished with 24 points and nine rebounds in the win over Richmond on Saturday. He is the catalyst of the Billikens' offense, which enters Wednesday top-20 in the country in effective field goal shooting, two-point shooting and three-point attempts. A much-weaker version of Saint Louis won this matchup by 18 points last season.

01-22-25 Pistons +3 v. Hawks 114-104 Win 100 7 h 31 m Show

Rating: 2 units

Detroit won and covered at Houston 107-96 while listed as 7.5-point underdogs moving their ATS record as an away underdog to 11-5-1 on the season. As a home favorite this season Atlanta is just 3-7 ATS and are 3-6 ATS across their last nine games overall with our power ratings and game line favoring the Hawks by 2-3 points tonight. The Pistons won at home 122-121 the first time these two met back on Nov. 8 as it’s worth noting Jalen Johnson is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury. With that said, we’ll recommend a play on the Pistons plus the points with this being the second of six games in nine days for the Hawks and the first leg of a back-to-back. Off a loss Atlanta is just 8-11 ATS on the season and if Johnson is out or limited in any fashion, the Hawks will have trouble scoring inside with the Pistons ranking top 10 in fewest points in the paint allowed per game on the season. Look for another very close matchup between these two in Atlanta tonight with Detroit possibly pulling the minor upset.

01-22-25 Utah +18 v. Houston 36-70 Loss -108 4 h 54 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Utah has found some momentum over their last three games, they won all three and covered in all three as well. Houston has not covered in each of their last two games, and have needed J'Wan Roberts to carry the load on the inside for them. Utah has an answer for Roberts, as the 6'8 Ausar has been playing excellent recently, and Lovering is a 7'1, 235-pound center in the middle who will make it difficult for Roberts to get buckets around the rim. Houston is undefeated in Big 12 play, but that is a bit of smoke and mirrors, as they have not played one ranked opponent yet, and have so far dodged Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas. Even with this, the Cougars did not cover their last two games and may be laying more points than they should in recent games. Utah is getting their momentum in their new conference, they will cover the number here. Take Utah plus the points.

01-21-25 Wizards +13.5 v. Lakers 88-111 Loss -108 13 h 32 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers are just 5-8 ATS in non-conference games and 8-9 ATS when playing off a loss. This will be just the third time all season the Lakers are listed as double digit favorites going 1-1 ATS in the first two games while listed as 10-11 point favorites each time. Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole should get up for this game for Washington desperate to snap their losing streak and if Davis should sit, that should open up tons of opportunities for Jonas Valanciunas to score inside, scoring 23 points and hauling in 12 rebounds in their loss against Sacramento last time out.

01-21-25 Minnesota v. Iowa -8 72-67 Loss -105 10 h 10 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Golden Gophers are ranked 100th in DI in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and are 0-3 on the road with all three defeats in Big Ten play. Minnesota is averaging 69.2 points on the season, pegging them 308th. The Golden Gophers have given up at least 80 points in five of their past six games and are conceding an average of 68.8 points, placing them 104th.The Hawkeyes are marked 54th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and are 10-1 at home. The only home defeat was against a ranked Iowa State team. Iowa is scoring an average of 88.4 points, good for fourth. 

01-21-25 Vanderbilt v. Alabama -11 87-103 Win 100 7 h 19 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Vanderbilt is coming off a 76-75 home win over Tennessee on Saturday. That was the biggest win in Mark Byington's first season at the helm in Nashville. Vanderbilt also hosted South Carolina last week, and we're using some numbers from that game as the catalyst for our handicap in this one. The Gamecocks were missing two starters and turned the ball over a whopping 25 times, and that game was tied in the final seconds before Vanderbilt hit the game-winner. That is concerning. Per KenPom, the Commodores played a bottom-20 non-conference schedule in the country, while Alabama played a top-10 schedule. This will be the hardest road environment Vanderbilt has faced this season. Assuming the Crimson Tide have recovered from their post-Kentucky celebrations, Alabama should cruise to victory in this one.

01-20-25 Rutgers +7.5 v. Penn State 72-80 Loss -107 7 h 39 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Rutgers earned an 80-76 home win in their first meeting of the season, and we're envisioning a similar result in this one. Baldwin went 3-of-14 from the floor in that first meeting, using a lot of energy defending Rutgers' freshmen duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Through seven conference games, Penn State is 17th out of 18 Big Ten teams in offensive rebounding rate and last in defensive rebounding rate. Without the 6-foot-8 Johnson, those numbers are unlikely to improve. Michigan State enjoyed a 15-8 edge in offensive rebounds on Wednesday. This is too many points for the Nittany Lions to be laying

01-20-25 Suns v. Cavs -7.5 92-118 Win 100 4 h 55 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Phoenix is just 3-7 ATS as road underdogs on the season with our power ratings favoring the Cavaliers to win and cover as 7-8 point favorites. Cleveland is 14-8 ATS as a home favorite and a NBA best ATS in non-conference games at 11-2. Phoenix is 3-13-1 ATS against Eastern Conference teams on the season with this being a gigantic step up in competition compared to teams they have played as of late which includes Charlotte twice, Philadelphia, Utah and Washington. Take Cleveland to win and cover at home as somewhat large favorites as Phoenix should be impacted more by the loss of Nurkic and possibly Beal compared to Cleveland not having Okoro and Mobley available.

01-20-25 Wolves +6.5 v. Grizzlies 106-108 Win 100 3 h 59 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Donte DiVicenzo will miss another game today with Rudy Gobert also heading in as questionable, but regardless of those injuries, revenge has to be on the minds of Minnesota as they look to exact revenge for their loss at home to the Grizzlies nine days ago. Minnesota still ranks top five on defense in fewest opponent field goals made per game and lowest three-point percentage allowed on the season and although they rank just 16th in offensive efficiency on the season, they sport the best offensive rating of any team across their last five games which should be enough to keep them within 5-6 points of the high flying Grizzlies in Memphis

01-19-25 Robert Morris v. Wisc-Milwaukee -8 81-79 Loss -108 3 h 7 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Colonials are on the second leg of a road back-to-back after playing at Green Bay on Friday. Milwaukee has been sitting comfortably at home for the last two weeks with a pair of double-digit wins over Youngstown State and that same Green Bay team we just mentioned. Milwaukee is 10-0 straight-up at home this season. The home team has won every meeting between these two teams since they became conference foes in 2020. These teams both play at a brisk pace, which should allow for Milwaukee to build a lead through more possessions. In Horizon League play, the Panthers are No. 1 in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding. Despite Robert Morris' improvement this season, Milwaukee should be able to control this contest.

01-19-25 Memphis -11.5 v. Charlotte 77-68 Loss -108 2 h 36 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

I don’t think that Charlotte is capable of keeping it close against the Tigers, who must be angry following a rough outing at Temple. The 49ers will try their best to slow things down. However, their defense has struggled all season, and the 49ers make only 28.9% of their 3-pointers (337th in the nation). The Tigers make 39.3% of their 3-pointers (10th) but that dipped to 36.0% in the conference play. I expect them to shoot better than they did against Temple and dominate Charlotte in the paint. The 49ers allow their conference rivals to shoot 57.1% from inside the arc. Both teams are struggling against the spread. The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and the 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their previous five. Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five dates with Charlotte. 

01-18-25 Rockets v. Blazers +11.5 125-103 Loss -105 11 h 48 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Houston Rockets have the ability to blow the doors off, but they're also just 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Portland Trail Blazers have seen eight of their 15 wins come at home, and they beat the Rockets back in November as 11.5-point underdogs. The Rockets are a good team to back as underdogs or as smaller favorites, but I don't think we're there yet with double-digit chalk. The Trail Blazers do have moments where they can get going offensively, and Grant is likely to return. The Rockets also have a thing for blowing leads in the second half. I'll grab the points with the Trail Blazers. 

01-18-25 Cavs v. Wolves +6.5 124-117 Loss -108 10 h 51 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the end of a back-to-back and could be in a letdown spot after beating the Knicks last night. It's also a long trip from New York to Minnesota with no break in between. The Cleveland Cavaliers are rested and one of the best cover teams in the league with a 27-13 ATS record. I'm still grabbing the points with the Timberwolves. The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing signs of putting things together, with wins in five of their last seven games. We also know the Timberwolves should be up for this one at home as it's a title contender. Also, the Cavs could be without Mobley, which is a big blow if true. Lot of points for the Timberwolves at home. I'll grab them.

01-18-25 Arkansas +6 v. Missouri 65-83 Loss -110 5 h 14 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Look for positive regression to hit this Arkansas team who is only shooting 26% from 3 in SEC play. Look for a desperate Arkansas team to keep this game close and even pull out the outright upset.

01-18-25 Iowa State v. West Virginia +7 57-64 Win 100 4 h 16 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

West Virginia has one of the best home-court advantages in the country and they are coming off a beat down and will look to bounce back at home in this one. Keep in mind, this West Virginia team already has 3 wins against Top 20 teams, including one against Kansas without their best player. Take the value with the home dog.

01-18-25 Texas v. Florida -10.5 60-84 Win 100 3 h 21 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Texas finally won a game against OU but they are at a big disadvantage in this one when it comes to coaching, depth and shooting. The spread is high but it's warranted as I see Florida winning this game by a million. Back the Gators in a route.

01-17-25 Nets +11.5 v. Lakers 101-102 Win 100 10 h 15 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

We just saw the Brooklyn Nets roll over like dogs against the Clippers, and they're still dealing with a great deal of injuries. The Lakers should win this game comfortably if they're serious about fighting for a decent playoff seed. The problem is the Lakers play a lot of games close to the vest and find themselves in dogfights that shouldn't be. Hell, we've seen the Lakers lose three times recently as decent-sized favorites. (Pistons, Mavericks, Spurs) The Lakers have also failed to cover six of their last nine games as a double-digit favorite. Knowing the Lakers, this will be a four-point game with a few minutes left and LeBron will have to save the day with a clutch shot. Give me the Nets and the points.

01-17-25 Grizzlies v. Spurs +2.5 140-112 Loss -108 9 h 18 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Morant is listed as questionable for this game and Smart is out, which will help the Spurs. Wembanyama struggled in his last game, making just 5-of-19 shots and 3-of-10 from beyond the arc. He's defended by the gigantic Zach Edyey, who he can outquick and Jaren Jackson Jr, who is four inches smaller. The Spurs are also 12-9 at home and just 7-11 on the road. The Spurs are 13th in Adjusted Defensive Rating thanks to Wemby and they'll be laser-focused after blowing that 12-point lead on Wednesday.  At some point, it's time to start winning games and getting closer to a playoff spot instead of sitting at home, waiting for a lottery pick.

01-17-25 Iowa +7 v. UCLA 70-94 Loss -108 8 h 6 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA has lost five of its last six games, including four straight in conference competition. The Bruins lost by seven to a struggling Scarlet Knights team in their last game, as they were outscored 45-35 after halftime. Both teams shot a low percentage from three-point range, but Rutgers won the rebounding battle and got to the foul line more often (16 more FT attempts). After a road trip to the East Coast, I'm sure the Bruins will be glad to get back home to LA.

01-17-25 Jazz +11.5 v. Pelicans 123-136 Loss -108 8 h 55 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they've been all season, and they're 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last four games. It feels like the Utah Jazz are in tank mode as half their roster is out, and they've lost seven of their last 10 games. On paper, the Pelicans should roll. However, the Pelicans are 22 games below .500 and 18-24 ATS. I'm not just throwing out double-digit chalk just because the Jazz stink and are injured. Also, for what it's worth, the Jazz have covered seven of their last 10 games. This will be the first time since April that the Pelicans are a double-digit favorite. I'm not buying it. Give me the Jazz and the points. 

01-17-25 Hornets v. Bulls -4.5 125-123 Loss -108 8 h 52 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams are hard to trust, but the Bulls have completely owned the Hornets over the last three seasons. I do not want to get behind a Hornets team that is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bulls. With Chicago currently on a three-game home losing streak, I expect them to be motivated and get right here against a bad team.

01-17-25 DePaul v. Georgetown -9 73-68 Loss -108 7 h 10 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

While the two teams have lost a combined 10 straight games in the Big East, the Hoyas have shown more overall signs of life in league play. Before the heartbreaking loss to Marquette, the Blue Demons had lost their other six Big East games by a combined 96 points. The Hoyas are 4-1 in their last five games ATS and are 7-4 as a favorite this season. The Hoyas are also #1 in the conference in scoring defense and #1 in field goal defense. They are also fifth in 3-point defense, the primary weapon of the Blue Demons. For DePaul, the team is just 1-4 in their last five games ATS. They are also 0-5 in road games ATS this season. The Blue Demons' struggles on defense have been their downfall. They rank 11th in the Big East in scoring defense and field goal defense and 10th in 3-point defense. While the Hoyas have struggled with turnovers, the Blue Demons are even worse so that shouldn't be a huge issue in this game.

01-17-25 Wolves +5 v. Knicks 116-99 Win 100 7 h 30 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves are still missing Donte DiVincenzo and Leonard Miller, while the Knicks are keeping an eye on Karl-Anthony Towns who is questionable with a thumb injury. These teams last met on Dec 19, and it was the Knicks who romped to a 133-107 road win, but I am expecting a much closer contest this time around. The Knicks were struggling before their overtime win over the 76ers on Wednesday, so I am a little more interested in the Timberwolves to get their revenge in this spot.

01-16-25 Suns v. Wizards +11.5 130-123 Win 100 8 h 39 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Phoenix Suns bettors are not making much money this season, as the Suns have the worst against the spread record in the league. Phoenix is only 13-25-1 against the number, Vegas knows that average bettors will be inclined to bet on Durant and Booker, allowing them to inflate the number. A similar logic will apply in this game, the Wizards are the worst team in the league, and both Durant and Booker are healthy which is going to draw money to Phoenix. Washington will end up getting more points that they should on this line, and the Wizards will cover. The Suns' lineup is not working, and the staff keeps trying to tweak to find the right combinations, including bringing Beal and Grayson Allen off the bench. They have not found the right lineup yet, and this young Wizards team will play with energy as they are trying to grow for the future. In a week rookie class, Alexandre Starr has been one of the top rookies in the league, and adds versatility to their lineup as he can guard multiple positions. Wizards will keep this one closer than expected.

01-16-25 Michigan -9.5 v. Minnesota 81-84 Loss -110 8 h 34 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan rolls into this game currently undefeated in conference play, but they will be on the road for this game. The Wolverines are shooting nearly 52% from the field this year and they are scoring 85.1 points per game. Michigan has scored at least 85 points in five straight games, which helps cover up a below-average defense. Minnesota has lost four games in a row and they have scored 61 points or fewer in two of their last four. The Golden Gophers are shooting just 44.2% from the field and they are scoring 68.4 points per game this season. Minnesota has allowed 77+ points in four straight games and they are going to have a ton of trouble stopping Michigan here. Take the Wolverines to run away with this game. 

01-15-25 Hornets v. Jazz +5.5 117-112 Win 100 10 h 40 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

We’re looking at a pair of struggling teams on the floor here. Utah has a laundry list of missing players with their top four scorers out for this contest. The Jazz did manage to take down Brooklyn with a similar group Sunday and could get a boost should George take the floor here. Charlotte hung around against Phoenix Sunday in their previous game but Ball continues to try and be a one-man team far too often. He’s taking an average of 24.6 shots per game from the floor (shooting 42%) and 13.2 three-point attempts (shooting 33.2%) on the year. The Hornets are suspect offensively, probably because of the excessive shot taking by Ball. Look for Utah to scratch and claw their way to a home win here as Charlotte fizzles again.

01-15-25 SMU -5.5 v. Virginia 54-52 Loss -120 9 h 3 m Show
Rating: 2 Units

Virginia has the advantage here, as they do against most opponents, on the defensive end of the floor. The problem for the Cavaliers is they simply don’t score enough to be a viable threat against teams that can do damage offensively. SMU is a top-20 team in the nation when it comes to scoring offense and they have a major advantage on the glass. While Virginia is at home here, we’ve already seen SMU beat them by double figures in Dallas. This one may not be a double-digit victory but seeing the Cavaliers being a bottom-five offense in the nation when it comes to scoring is too much to overlook. Take SMU on the road to sweep the season series.

01-15-25 Grizzlies v. Spurs +2.5 129-115 Loss -108 9 h 43 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are looking up at the Rockets for the top spot in the Southwest Division standings heading into this game. The Grizzlies are dealing with their share of injuries with Smart, Spencer and Williams out of the mix for the time being. Memphis has been a pedestrian .500 on the road (10-10) this season and they have struggled on the defensive end of the floor as the visiting team, giving up 119.4 points per game. San Antonio is relatively healthy with Sochan the lone player out of the mix for them here. Take the Spurs with the points here but don’t be surprised if they win outright.

01-15-25 Duquesne v. George Washington -3.5 73-65 Loss -108 7 h 58 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

The George Washington Revolutionaries are better at both ends of the court than the Duquesne Dukes. George Washington is scoring 78.5 points per game while shooting 45.9% overall. At the same time, the Revolutionaries hold opponents to 67.0 points per game which is 65th in the country. George Washington allows 40% field goal shooting, which is 36th in the country, and 28.9% 3-point shooting, which is 27th. Duquesne scores just 69 points per game and is allowing 65.8 points per game, which is slightly lower but they play at a slower tempo than George Washington. Duquesne is 6-9 ATS in the 15 games that have had a betting line this season. George Washington has covered the spread in four of the last five games and five of the last six games against a team from the Atlantic 10 Conference.

01-14-25 Colorado State +6.5 v. San Diego State 60-75 Loss -105 12 h 14 m Show

Rating: 2 Units

San Diego State is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against Colorado State, and are 7-2 against the spread. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings, and in their most recent meeting last season, San Diego State won 71-55 at home, covering the spread, as the game went under the point total. In this Colorado State Rams vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, San Diego State is coming as a -8.5 home favorites. The Aztecs are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games, while the Rams have been playing very well lately, as they are 5-1 in their last 6 games and 4-1 against the spread. I expect the guests to keep this one close, so take the Colorado State Rams and lay the points on the road.

  • PREVIOUS
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15
  • 16
  • 17
  • 18
  • 19
  • 20
  • 21
  • 22
  • 23
  • 24
  • 25
  • 26
  • 27
  • 28
  • 29
  • NEXT

More Content

  • Article Archive