Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +1.5 | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 106 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Patriots +1.5 The Key: The Patriots were embarrassed on Monday Night Football and have been taking a beating in the media as a result. I expect Brady and Belichick to do what they've done time and time again - respond. The Patriots have a short week to prepare while the Bengals have had an extra week, but motivation is the best medicine. New England will draw extra motivation from last season's seven-point loss in Cincinnati. The Patriots are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. They are 17-6 ATS under Belichick off a double-digit defeat, bouncing back to win by an average score of 27.9 to 19.5 in these spots. The Patriots are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. You want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 34-10 ATS mark the last 10 seasons and a 13-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take New England. |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 123 h 13 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Year on Jets +7 The Key: Off three consecutive defeats, New York will be highly motivated when it takes the field Sunday. The Jets have yet to cover a spread this season while the Chargers have covered in each of their games, and we are catching a great number as a result. New York's record is not indicative of how good it is. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 75 yards on the season. Consider that the Chargers have outgained their foes by just 27 yards on average. The Jets are averaging more yards per game and allowing less yards per game than San Diego. Turnovers have let the Jets down the past couple weeks, but they are catching a big enough number here to cover the spread even if they lose the turnover battle. Teams off blowout victories tend to be overvalued. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. It is also worth noting that they are 0-7 ATS in home games the last three seasons following a game where they finished over the total. They have lost in this situation by an average score of 25.0 to 14.4. The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points. |
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10-05-14 | Buffalo Bills +7.5 v. Detroit Lions | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Bills +7.5 The Key: Off back-to-back losses, the Bills will be lacking no motivation. I also expect them to get a boost from Kyle Orton taking over under center. The veteran brings experience to the huddle and has performed well at all of his stops. Backing the bills off two or more consecutive spread losses has been a good move as doing so has produced a 44-27 ATS mark since 1992. Backing them off a road loss has resulted in a near-perfect 10-1 ATS record the last three seasons. Detroit has won three of four to start the season, but is a dismal 10-27 ATS since 1992 following a stretch of three wins in four games. The Lions are also a lousy 24-44 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last 22 years. And, they are 0-8 following a non-conference contest over the last three seasons, losing in this spot by an average score of 27.5 to 23.3. Take the points. |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 48 | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
7* NFL Total of the Week on Vikings/Packers UNDER 48 The Key: Minnesota combined with Atlanta for 69 points last week. Green Bay combined with Chicago for 55. We saw 75 and 52 total points scored when these foes met last season. Judging by the number, the books want the public on the over, and they've gotten their wish. I'm not hesitating to go against the grain. Prior to last week when it busted out against a bad Atlanta defense, Minnesota hadn't combined for more than 40 points this season. And, its upset win places it firmly in a strong unders situation. When the total is between 42.5 and 49.0 points, you want to play the under on any team that is off an upset victory if it is matched up against a division opponent. Doing so has produced a 75-37 mark the last 10 seasons. When the total is between 42.5 and 49.0 points, you also want to play the under on all teams off an over in a game involving teams that average just 18.0-23.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 24-8 mark the last three seasons. Take the under. |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +3.5 The Key: I'll take the points with the Chiefs at home against a New England team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games. In order to be a good road favorite, you better be able to move the football - something the Patriots have struggled to do this season. They rank 29th in the NFL in total offense, and their normally reliable passing attack ranks 31st with just 196.3 yards per game. Part of the problem has been an offensive line that has already surrendered seven sacks. Kansas City has the horses to get after Tom Brady tonight. And, the Chiefs have done a good job defending the pass, ranking 8th in the NFL in that category. The Patriots are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass playing surfaces. Take the points. |
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09-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4.5 | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 74 h 30 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on 49ers -4.5 The Key: The 49ers are a terrific 24-8-3 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. They were upset in Arizona last week but are 32-15 ATS off an upset loss since 1992. If that loss occurred on the road, this trend tightens up to a blistering 18-5 ATS. Keep in mind they won by an average score of 30.4 to 14.5 in these 23 contests. The Niners are an impressive 17-7 ATS when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Harbaugh. They are also 10-2 ATS when playing against teams with a win percentage greater than 75% under their current coach. They have ripped these teams, defeating them by an average score of 28.0 to 17.9. The 49ers are once against an elite defensive team so I expect them to be up to the challenge against Philadelphia's offense. They are 9-2 ATS under Harbaugh against teams that average 375.0 yards per game or more. I'm also expecting a breakout game for the San Francisco offense against a Philadelphia defense that has struggled. Lay the points. |
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09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +7.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-41 | Loss | -108 | 71 h 8 m | Show | |
6* NFL Vegas Line Mistake on Titans +7.5 The Key: This line is an overreaction to Indy's blowout win at Jacksonville and Tennessee's blowout loss at Cincy. The Titans have played the Colts extremely tough in recent years, and I expect the trend to continue. Indy has won the last five meetings but only one of the last four victories have come by more than 7.5 points. In fact, the Titans have kept the score within this number in six of their last eight contests with the Colts. You want to back poor offensive teams like Tennessee that average 14.0-18.0 points per game when they are off a loss of 21 points or more and are up against a poor defensive team that gives up 23.0-27.0 points per game. Doing so has produced a 24-4 (86%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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09-28-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
6* Situational Annihilator on Buccaneers +9 The Key: Tampa Bay fits into a couple phenomenal wagering situations. You want to back underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points per game or fewer after a game where they gave up 40 points or more. Doing so has produced a 77-38 (67%) ATS mark since 1983. You also want to take any bad offensive team that averages 14.0-18.0 ppg after playing a game in which 50 total points or more were scored when they are matched up against a team that gives up 23.0-27.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 28-7 (80%) ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation are 14-1 ATS the last five seasons. The Bucs are a better team than they've shown so far. They will be hungry after getting embarrassed by Atlanta last Thursday, and they will benefit from three extra days of preparation time. Take the points. |
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09-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. NY Jets +2 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 7 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +2 The Key: Expect a letdown from the Lions as they head out on the road following a satisfying win over Green Bay. Look for the Jets to put forth a gritty performance at home as they look to bounce back following consecutive defeats. Detroit hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last 4. It has also been a dead as road chalk, going 8-22 ATS as a road favorite since 1992. It's 4-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less during this span. The Jets have had one less day to prepare having played the Monday nighter last week, but playing this one at home certainly helps. They are 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992, winning by an average score of 23.7 to 16.6 in this spot. They are 9-2 ATS in this situation under coach Ryan with a 9.4-point average margin of victory. The Jets are on a 16-6 ATS run in their next game after playing on Monday Night Football. Take the Jets. |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -118 v. Chicago Bears | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
6* NFC North Annihilator on Packers -118 The Key: The Packers have had no problem winning at Soldier Field, where they are 18-5 SU and 17-6 ATS since 1992. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four there, winning those by an average of 7.5 points. Bears backers have been getting burnt time and time again at Soldier, where the Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Bears are also 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in home games following one or more consecutive victories. In addition, the Bears are 5-22 ATS since 1992 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Chicago was fortunate to win the last two weeks as it was outgained by well over 100 yards in each. It benefited from a plus-six turnover margin. Green Bay just doesn't turn it over. It's only committed three giveaways this season. Take the Packers. |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants +4 v. Washington Redskins | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Giants +4 The Key: The Giants catch Washington at a good time. The Redskins are extremely banged up, and the short week adds insult to injury. The Giants have some nice momentum on their side following a 30-17 victory over Houston while the Redskins are off a deflating 37-34 loss at the Eagles. The Giants have been very competitive against Washington. In fact, they have won or lost by fewer than four points in 10 of the last 12 meetings, including four straight. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Redskins are 5-19-2 ATS in their last 26 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points. |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears v. NY Jets -2.5 | Top | 27-19 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets -2.5 The Key: Expect a letdown from Chicago following last week's big come-from-behind win in San Francisco. The Bears have been a poor investment after cashing a ticket, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight. They have also been a bad play in games odds makers expect to be close. They are just 4-13 ATS the last three seasons when the line is +3 to -3. The Bears were outgained 361-216 last week but were bailed out by four San Francisco turnovers. With this, it is worth noting that they are 1-9 ATS the last three seasons following a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better. The Chicago defense has been extremely vulnerable against the run. In fact, it ranks 31st in the league with 160.0 yards allowed per game. The Jets lead the league in rushing with 179.0 yards per game. Look for the Jets to "run" away with a victory tonight. Lay the points. |
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09-21-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 7-33 | Loss | -115 | 116 h 51 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Titans +7 The Key: After an impressive Week 1 performance in Kansas City, the Titans were crushed at home by Dallas last week. Look for them to come storming back with a strong showing in Cincinnati. The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a spread loss. The Titans have won or lost by 7 points or less in 13 of 16 all-time meetings, including 6 of the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati. The Bengals are off a pair of wins and covers to start the season and are being overvalued as a result. Take the points. |
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09-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | 44-17 | Loss | -114 | 98 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Divisional *CA$H COW* on Jaguars +7 The Key: This is a tough spot for the Colts going on the road in a short week after blowing a double-digit lead and losing at home to Philadelphia on Monday Night Football. The Jaguars are 0-2, but I expect a strong effort from them here in their home opener. Not only will they be motivated by an 0-2 start, but they'll be out for revenge after getting kicked by the Colts twice last season. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that won just 25-40% of their games last season as doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. These teams have been six-point underdogs on average but have lost by only 2.4 points on average. Take the points. |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans v. NY Giants +2.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 116 h 52 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Giants +2.5 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats, look for the Giants to respond at home Sunday. They are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Texans are on a 0-7 ATS skid after playing their last game on the road and have lost by an average of 10.9 points in these contests. Houston is also on a 0-7 ATS slide in games played on fieldturf. Houston has been outgained in each of its first two games but has managed to roll due to a plus-5 turnover margin. Turnovers have cost the Giants thus far, but I don't see it continuing. They'll make a concerted effort to take care of the football this week and will come out on top as a result. |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
6* Thursday Night NFL Annihilator on Buccaneers +7 The Key: Tampa Bay has struggled offensively through its first two games, but it should be able to move the football on an Atlanta defense that ranks dead last in the NFL with 472.0 yards allowed per game. Tampa Bay has had a ton of success running the football on the Falcons. It has averaged 147 rushing yards in the last three meetings, and its ground game will be instrumental in keep this one close. Tampa Bay has long been extremely competitive in the series. In fact, it is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall and 10-4 in their last 14 in Atlanta. You want to back underdogs or pickems that won just 25-40% of their games last season as doing so has produced a 47-17 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Colts -3 The Key: The Colts haven't lost consecutive games in the regular season with Andrew Luck under center. They have gone a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS in bounce back spots with these 10 wins coming by an average of 8.3 points. Indy is also on a 10-0 ATS run in home games when the total is 45.5 or higher, a 7-0 ATS run following a road loss and a 6-0 ATS run in home games after allowing 30 points or more last time out. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five games after being held to less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 2 and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Colts. Lay the points with Luck and company at home. |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 106 h 47 m | Show |
7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on Bears +7 The Key: After a disappointing opener, I expect the Bears to come storming back in Week 2. This is too many points for Chicago to be catching considering how competitive it has been. Five of its last seven losses have come by five points or less. The 49ers posted a double-digit win in Dallas last week, but they were helped out by four first half Dallas turnovers. Consider that they were outgained 382-319 for the game, and the Cowboys outscored them 14-0 in the second half when they took care of the football. Chicago should be able to take the Niners down to the wire if it takes care of the football, and it will place a big emphasis on doing so after three giveaways last week. The 49ers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Take the points. |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 27 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Chargers +6 The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued on the road because they are the defending Super Bowl champs, they looked great in Week 1 and they have had four extra days to prepare. I'll gladly take the points with the home team as they have been extremely competitive. In fact, eight of their last nine losses have come in games that were decided by a single score. Seattle has shown some vulnerability when stepping away from the 12th Man. It went 6-2 on the road last regular season, but three of those wins came by five points or less. In other words, the Seahawks lost or won by less than six points in five of eight regular-season road contests last year. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games in September. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Take the points. |
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09-14-14 | Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Tennessee Titans | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 30 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Cowboys +3.5 The Key: We were on the Titans +3.5 in Week 1 and watched them take care of business in Kansas City, but they are getting too much respect from odds makers here as a result. The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread win and 0-6 ATS in the last six home games. Tennessee is also on a 0-7 ATS slide when the total is at 49.5 or higher, and it has lost these contests by an average score of 40.4 to 21.0. Dallas is on a strong 13-3 ATS run in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Tony Romo struggled in the first half last week, and it cost the Cowboys. Don't count on him laying another egg here. Take the points. |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -1 The Key: Motivated by a loss in Week 1, I expect the Ravens to bounce back strong at home against a Pittsburgh team they have defeated four times in the last six meetings. The Steelers have been a poor early season investment, going 0-6 ATS in their last six September contests. They are 3-12 ATS all-time under Tomlin in road games in the first month of the season. It is also worth noting that they are 0-6 ATS under Tomlin in road games after gaining an average of seven yards or more per play in their previous game. They have lost by an average of 4.2 points in this situation. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record. Take Baltimore. |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants v. Detroit Lions -6 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions -6 The Key: I'll lay the points with the Lions at home as they have the edge on both sides of the football. New York's O-line is an area of concern, and I see it having major problems against Detroit's D-line - Ziggy Ansah (eight sacks last year), Ndamukong Suh (5 1/2) and Nick Fairley (six). New York's defense should be improved, but I don't see it being a well-oiled machine right out of the gate, especially against a team with so many offensive weapons. New York won't have an answer for Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush tonight. In addition, the Lions will have the motivational edge. Unlike New York which finished last season strong, the Lions lost their last four games and six of their final seven. One of those losses came in OT at home to the Giants so Detroit will be out for a little revenge. The Giants are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five September contests and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 matchups. The Lions are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 season openers. Lay the points. |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Buccaneers -2 The Key: Cam Newton isn't 100 percent, and I expect him to take a step back this season as he adjusts to a new group of wideouts. He's at his best when he moves outside the pockets and looks for opportunities to run, but I expect him to be hesitant here with the sore ribs. Tampa Bay's defense should be improved under Lovie Smith, and the Bucs also got an upgrade at QB with Josh McCown, who had a 108.2 passer rating in five starts for Chicago last season. The Bucs will bring a little extra enthusiasm to their opener as they seek revenge for a pair of lopsided losses to Carolina last season. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five season openers. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Lay the points. |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 51 h 13 m | Show | |
6* NFC South *CA$H COW* on Falcons +3 The Key: Atlanta opens the season with plenty of motivation following a 4-12 campaign. Despite what the record might lead you to believe, the Falcons were very competitive. They suffered seven losses by seven points or less with two of those coming against the Saints. They'll be out for revenge here, and I really like their chances of an outright "W" as the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 7-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first two weeks of the season under coach Smith. It has won these by an average score of 30.7 to 18.7. Take the points. |
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09-07-14 | Tennessee Titans +3.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 12 m | Show | |
6* AFC Annihilator on Titans +3.5 The Key: The Chiefs are getting too much respect here because of last season's 11-6 record. I believe they overachieved last year with losses in 6 of their last 8 games being the evidence. They defeated Tennessee 26-17 last season, but the game was even closer than the score looks as the Titans led that game in the 4th and trailed by only three points with under five minutes remaining. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games, losing their last three straight up. The Titans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Take Tennessee. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -5.5 The Key: Seattle has been unstoppable at home where it is 15-1 during the regular season the past two years. I expect Green Bay to be more formidable this season, but this isn't a good spot for the Packers. Seattle has the horses to get to Aaron Rodgers, who has been sacked an NFC-high 139 times since 2010. He was sacked eight times the last time the Packers visited Seattle. Green Bay's defense really struggled last season, ranking 24th in points allowed per game (26.8) and 25th in yards allowed per game (372.3). Losing defensive tackle B.J. Raji for the season especially hurts with the way Seattle is capable of dominating the trenches. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS all-time as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under Pete Carroll, winning these games by an average score of 28.1 to 11.1. They are also 8-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first month of the season under Carroll, winning these contests by an average score of 26.8 to 13.1. Lay the points. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 294 h 38 m | Show |
7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Seahawks +3
The Key: I'm a firm believer in the saying defense wins championships. I'll gladly take the points with the far superior defensive team in this matchup, especially since the game is being played outdoors with temperatures in the 20s likely according to extended forecasts. Winds of 10-20 mph are also likely, and they should aid Seattle's No. 1 pass defense against Peyton Manning, who has typically struggled throughout his career in cold weather games. Even if the weather doesn't end up being much of a factor, I like the chances of Seattle's No. 1 defense getting more stops and coming up with more big plays than a Denver stop unit that ranks 19th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense with 24.9 ppg allowed. Consider that the Seahawks are 10-0 ATS under coach Pete Carroll in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more. The Seahawks have won these games by an average score of 32.0 to 12.0. Seattle is also 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season the last three seasons versus teams with a winning percentage higher than 75%. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 27.7 to 17.2. While these trends are enough proof for me to back Seattle, it is also worth noting that the Seahawks are 8-1 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog and 9-1 ATS the last two seasons versus good passing teams like Denver that average 7.0 yards or more per pass attempt. It's the Super Bowl, which means the officials are going to let these teams play. That means the Seattle D-backs will likely get away with being very physical with the Denver receivers. Because of this, I expect Manning to make a costly mistake or two in this game. All the pressure is on Manning here. This ball-hawking Seattle team seems to feel no pressure. Take the points. |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on 49ers +3.5
The Key: This is not the same San Francisco 49ers that were crushed 29-3 in Seattle clear back in Week 2. These 49ers are beaming with confidence, having won eight in a row, a streak that includes a win over Seattle. The 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games played away from home with back-to-back wins at Green Bay and Carolina so I have no doubt they can win in Seattle. The Niners are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus teams that have a winning home record. The 49ers and Colin Kaepernick are playing their best football of the season while Seattle is not. The Seahawks were actually pretty fortunate to come out on top against New Orleans last week considering they were outgained 409-277. Russell Wilson is struggling, which is a bad sign considering San Francisco has the run defense to make Wilson try to win this game with his arm. I don't see it happening. In two of Seattle's last three games against the Cardinals and Saints, Wilson threw for just 108 yards and 103 yards, respectively, while completing only 40.7% and 50% of his passes. Kaepernick has been outstanding of late, throwing 12 TDs and just 2 INTs during the 49ers' win streak. He's thrown for at least 175 yards in all eight wins while also hurting teams with his legs. A big part of this success can be attributed to the return of Michael Crabtree. The 49ers are 7-0 this season with him in the lineup. The 49ers are 10-1 ATS under coach Harbaugh versus teams that carry a win percentage greater than .750, defeating these teams by an average score of 29.0 to 17.5. Take the points. |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos -4 | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 119 h 49 m | Show | |
6* AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Broncos -4
The Key: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have had Peyton Manning's number. However, they have also had the better team in the majority of the matchups. That's not the case this time around. The Broncos clearly looked to be the better team in the regular-season matchup while playing on the road despite blowing a 24-0 lead and losing in OT. I expect the Broncos to jump out fast again, and this time they'll hold on. Manning is having a special season, and he knows this may be his last chance to win another Super Bowl so I expect a very strong game from him. With Manning at the controls, the Broncos are on a 12-4 ATS run versus teams like New England that give up 235.0 passing yards per game or more. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 33.8 to 20.9. The Broncos are also 15-5 ATS under coach Fox as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. In addition, you want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers if they are up against an opponent that forced 4 or more turnovers last game. Doing so has produced a 4-0 ATS mark the last three seasons, a 10-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 24-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. The Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff games and 0-4 ATS in their last four Conference Championship games. Lay the points. |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -9.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 17 m | Show | |
6* AFC Divisional Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Broncos -9.5
The Key: The San Diego Chargers have been a great story, but I believe their story comes to an end in Denver. The Chargers played the Broncos to an 8-point game at home and then won in Denver by 7 points as a 9.5-point dog and yet they are catching 9.5 points again? Clearly oddsmakers aren't sold on the Bolts. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season when they check in off an upset victory if they have a winning record and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 72-37 ATS mark since 1983. Denver finished the regular-season with a 34-14 win in Oakland. This is significant because the Broncos are 8-0 ATS under coach John Fox off a road win against a division rival. The Broncos are also 15-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Fox. It is also worth noting that the Broncos are on a 15-1 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. Lay the points. |
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers -1 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 120 h 38 m | Show |
7* Sunday Divisional Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -1
The Key: The 49ers are a different team than the one that loss to Carolina by a point in early November. They had just 46 passing yards in that game, but the passing attack has come alive since the return of Michael Crabtree. The 49ers are 6-0 since his return, and I expect him to play a significant role here. The 49ers are 9-1 ATS in road games versus teams that allow opponents to complete an average of 61% of their passes or more under coach Jim Harbaugh. The Niners are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-1 ATS the last 2 seasons as a road favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco is 9-1 ATS under Harbaugh when taking on a team with a win percentage of 75% or greater. Take the 49ers. |
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 103 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Saturday AFC Divisional Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Patriots -7
The Key: Expect a letdown from Indianapolis following last week's thrilling comeback. It is a bad sign that Indy found itself in such a big hole at home. The Colts certainly can't count on a choke job from Tom Brady and company in Foxborough. You want to fade any team off an upset win at home if they have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team. Doing so has produced a 78-38 ATS mark since 1983. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS off a double-digit win over a division rival the last 3 seasons. New England is also 34-21 ATS under Belichick as a home favorite of 7 points or less and 25-14 ATS under its head coach as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Lay the points. |
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints +8 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 15-23 | Push | 0 | 99 h 14 m | Show |
7* NFL Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Saints +8
The Key: New Orleans was humiliated when it visited Seattle Dec. 2. It was also stunned in its previous meeting in Seattle, a 41-36 loss in the 2011 postseason. Because of these brutal losses, I believe Drew Brees and company will want this game just a little bit more. Seattle has looked nearly unbeatable at home this season, but Cincinnati was undefeated at home before the Chargers crushed the Bengals last week. I went with San Diego in that matchup as they were out for revenge, and I liked the veteran Philip Rivers better than Andy Dalton in such a big game. Similarly, I like the more proven Drew Brees over Russell Wilson here. You want to back road underdogs or pickems in a conference game after a game where both it and its opponent scored 24 points or more. Doing so has produced a 41-18 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Seattle is just 12-27 ATS off a win of 10 points or more over a division rival since 1992. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24.0 ppg or more under coach Sean Payton. Take the points. |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 75 h 53 m | Show |
7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Packers +3
The Key: Aaron Rodgers is back, and that means the Packers have an opportunity to make a Super Bowl run. The 49ers won 34-28 when these two met in San Francisco in the season opener, but they received a stellar performance through the air from Colin Kaepernick, who hasn't done anything like it since. The Packers were knocked out of last season's playoffs by the 49ers so they will be extremely motivated. They should benefit from having home field this time around as they are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Niners. You want to back teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for a close loss of seven points or less to opponent if they also check in off a win over a division rival. Doing so has produced a 17-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 10-1 ATS mark the last three seasons. Also, the Packers are 8-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a win percentage of 75% or greater since 1992. They have won these eight contests by an average score of 26.7 to 12.9. Take the Packers. |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 71 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Chargers +7
The Key: Philip Rivers and company are having a ton of fun and playing with a ton of confidence. They lost the regular-season meeting by seven points but have won four in a row since, including a win in Denver, so they enter this contest believing they can win. The Chargers also have wins over Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Kansas City so they clearly have what it takes to keep this one within the number. All the pressure is on Cincy as it is expected to win this game, and teams often don't perform their best when under pressure. The Bengals have been outstanding at home, but the Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record. Also, the Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games. The Chargers have won or lost by 7 points or less in 12 of their last 13 meetings with the Bengals. Take the points as San Diego takes Cincy right down to the wire. |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
7* Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Saints +3
The Key: New Orleans has struggled on the road, but Drew Brees and company have a lot more big-game experience on their side. Plus, Brees and his talented corps of wide receivers should be able to take advantage of a Philadelphia defense that ranks dead last in the league against the pass in almost any condition. The Saints are second in the NFL in passing offense, and they are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons versus teams like Philly that give up an average of 260.0 passing yards or more per game. The Saints have won these six contests by an average score of 36.0 to 16.0. In addition, Philly is a soft 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 home games and 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 versus teams with a winning record. New Orleans ranks No. 4 in the NFL in both total and scoring defense, and it should be able to get more stops than Philly's susceptible defensive unit. Take New Orleans. |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
6* Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Chiefs +3
The Key: Right away one has to like the fact that road teams that check in off a road loss and are out for revenge for a loss against the team they are facing are 73-35 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, you want to back any team that is out for revenge for a loss where it was held to less than nine points if it checks in off an extremely close defeat of three points or less to a division rival. Doing so has produced a 37-13 ATS mark since 1983. The Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Andy Reid in road games when playing on 6 or less days' rest. The Colts won the regular-season meeting 23-7 in Kansas City, but it hasn't been wise to go against Andy Reid in revenge spots. Teams headed up by Reid are 27-10 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. His teams have won these games by an average score of 22.1 to 19.6. Reid's teams are 16-6 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, and they have won these games by an average score of 20.9 to 19.8. Lastly, his teams are 15-5 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent, winning by an average score of 21.8 to 20.3 in this spot. Take Kansas City. |
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Cowboys +7
The Key: You want to back home underdogs or pickems in the last two weeks of the regular season that have been beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 41-17 ATS mark since 1983. The value clearly with Dallas, and I'm not afraid to get behind Kyle Orton catching this many points. He has a 35-34 record in nine NFL seasons and far more big-game experienced than Nick Foles. Plus, Philadelphia isn't nearly as familiar with Orton so preparing for him presents a challenge. Also, the loss of Romo encourages Dallas to run the football more, and it has had success when running the ball effectively. We here plenty about how bad the Dallas defense is, but it held the Eagles to just 3 points earlier this season. Plus, Philly's defense is nearly as bad. Take the points as Dallas takes the Eagles down to the wire. |
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13 | Top | 34-14 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Raiders +13
The Key: The odds are stacked against the Broncos this week. Consider that fading favorites that check in off a win of 14 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that's off back-to-back double-digit losses has produced a 27-9 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have won on average but only by 3.1 points. The Broncos secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win, but they are extremely banged-up right now, and they will be facing an Oakland team that will be treating this game as its Super Bowl. The Denver defense leaves plenty to be desired, and it took a big hit with a season-ending injury to Von Miller. Oakland keeps this one closer than the odds makers think. Take the points. |
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12-29-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11 v. Indianapolis Colts | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 15 m | Show | |
6* NFL Early Annihilator on Jaguars +11
The Key: Off a big win in Kansas City, the Colts will have a tough time getting up for a Jacksonville team they defeated 37-3 in the season's first meeting. The Jaguars will have no problem getting up for this game as they look for revenge and to finish the season on a positive note. This isn't the same Jacksonville team that was blown out in the first meeting, and this isn't the same Colts squad either. Indy has won its last two impressively following a very inconsistent stretch where it was blown out three times, but the wins came against a down-and-out Houston team and a Kansas City team I don't think is as good as its record leads you to believe. The Jaguars have been very undervalued on the road and are 4-0 ATS in the last four road games as a result, winning the last three straight up. The Jaguars have also been competitive in division play, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four versus the AFC South. The Jags are 16-5 ATS all-time in road games where out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. They are 13-3 ATS all-time in road games when out for revenge for a same-season loss. You also want to fade home favorites of 10.5 or more points if they have covered the spread in two of their last three games and are a good team (.600-.750 win percentage) playing a poor team (.250-.400 win percentage). Doing so has produced a 33-10 ATS mark since 1983. This system tightens up to 6-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Falcons +14.5
The Key: Odds makers have overvalued the 49ers as they go after a big payday by preying on the public's desire to back a San Francisco team playing its last game at Candlestick with an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot. While there's a good chance the 49ers get it done, I don't see this one being a blowout. You might recall that San Francisco prevented the Falcons from making a trip to the Super Bowl last season. Atlanta hasn't forgotten, and it would love to play a role in spoiling San Fran's playoff hopes. You want to fade home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .250 to .400. Doing so has produced a 32-10 ATS mark the last 30 years. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by only 9.2 points. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points. |
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Patriots +2.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Baltimore, playing on a short week following an emotional victory in Detroit Monday night. Baltimore was beat, but Justin Tucker connected on a 61-yard field goal to save the day. After such a high, I believe a letdown is inevitable. The Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Patriots just don't lose consecutive games. They are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Tom Brady and company weren't at all pleased with last week's loss in Miami, and they'll be very focused here. They also aren't pleased with the fact they've lost two straight to Baltimore so motivation won't be an issue. The Patriots are an awesome 41-21 ATS when catching points under coach Bill Belichick. They are an insane 19-6 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season under Belichick and 10-2 ATS in road games following a road loss under their future Hall of Fame coach. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, which means the road team is also 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Patriots. |
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12-22-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 13-23 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 31 m | Show |
7* NFC Game of the Month on Buccaneers +6
The Key: This is a letdown spot for St. Louis, which is coming off a big upset victory over the Saints. The Rams won't be going to the postseason so they treated that game like their Super Bowl. They will have a much tougher time getting up for the lowly Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has come on strong following a 0-8 start, winning four of its last six games. It clearly hasn't quit on the season. The Bucs are better than their record leads you to believe as well. They have four losses of three points or less with three of these losses coming to the Saints, Cardinals and Seahawks (road). Taking the Seahawks down to the wire on the road is no easy task. The Rams came into Tampa and won last season so this game will also be about revenge for the Bucs. Teams headed up by coach Jeff Fisher are typically run-first teams that play a more conservative brand of football. So, not surprisingly, his teams are just 14-33 ATS all-time at home as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Run-heavy teams typically don't win many games going away. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 14 points. The Rams are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC foes. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points. |
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -6.5 | 18-16 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Lions -6.5
The Key: Baltimore hasn't lost by more than 6 points since a 49-27 season-opening defeat in Denver, yet it is catching 6.5 points? Clearly odds makers don't think the Ravens, who rank 29th in total offense, can keep pace with a Detroit team that ranks 3rd in total offense while averaging nearly 100 more yards per game than the Ravens. I completely agree. The Detroit offense struggled last week without Reggie Bush in the snow, but that does well for us here as the Lions are 14-3 ATS after being outgained by 200 yards or more since 1992. The key to Detroit covering this number is not turning it over. The Lions have struggled with turnovers lately but should be able to do a better job of taking care of the football against a Baltimore team that hasn't come up with many takeaways. The Ravens have been almost been a dead fade late in the season at 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December. Lay the points. |
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 126 h 50 m | Show |
7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on Steelers +3
The Key: Cincinnati has not been the same dominant force on the road. In fact, it has won by more than three points just once in its last nine road games. It's been a very disappointing season for the Steelers, but they're not about to roll over for anybody, especially at home against a division rival. The Steelers lost the season's first meeting at Cincinnati. However, home teams that are out for revenge and are also coming off an upset defeat are 165-103 ATS since 1983. Zooming in, this system is 29-14 ATS the last five seasons. In addition, you want to fade road favorites that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team that has a losing record. Doing so has produced a 60-29 ATS mark since 1983. Pittsburgh is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with one of these losses coming by only three points. Take the points. |
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 25 m | Show | |
6* Late Afternoon Annihilator on Raiders +5.5
The Key: The Raiders will be out for revenge at home after losing the first meeting 24-7 in Kansas City. That was a rare divisional win for the Chiefs, who are just 1-9 in their last 10 against AFC West foes. The Raiders are 3-1 in their last 4 against the Chiefs and have won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in 11 of the last 16 meetings. Oakland has been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots at 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS loss. Also, you want to fade road teams after a win of 21 points or more if they're matched up against an opponent that was held to 3 points or less in the first half last game. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. It is also worth mentioning that the underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Take the points. |
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12-15-13 | Buffalo Bills -115 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show | |
6* NFL Early Annihilator on Bills pk
The Key: Jacksonville has won three in a row and four of five, but two of these wins came against a Houston team that has lost 11 straight and the other two came against a Cleveland team that's on a 1-7 slide and a Tennessee team on a 2-7 slide. Buffalo is a better team than its record shows. It has wins over the Panthers, Ravens, Dolphins and Jets and has narrow losses to New England and Cincinnati. The numbers show Buffalo to be superior as well. The Bills rank No. 15 in total defense while the Jaguars rank No. 29. Offensively, the Bills rank No. 23 while the Jags rank dead last. Buffalo enters Week 15 with the 5th-best rushing attack in the league, and it should do a number on a Jacksonville defense that is among the worst in the NFL against the run. You want to fade home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that have been outscored by an average of 10.0 points or more per game. Doing so has produced a 30-7 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system is 16-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take Buffalo. |
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers +10.5 v. Denver Broncos | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 60 m | Show | |
6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Chargers +10.5
The Key: The Chargers aren't getting the respect they deserve here. They have won or lost by fewer than 10.5 points in 15 straight and 22 of 23 games. The Chargers have also performed well in Denver where they are 5-3 in the last eight meetings with the losses coming by only 3, 1, and 7 points. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Denver. Also, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. This game means way more to a San Diego team that is hanging on to postseason hopes by the skin of its teeth. Denver's focus right now is getting healthy. Take the points. |
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Bears +1.5
The Key: The Bears have won four of six at Soldier Field, and I expect them to continue their solid play at home in a game they absolutely must have. The Cowboys have dropped four of six on the road, and their league-worst defense figures to be up against it tonight. The Bears are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, and that doesn't bode well for Dallas, which is 0-7 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons versus teams that average 375.0 yards per game or more. It has lost to these teams by an average of 12.2 points. The Bears have had defensive struggles of their own, but the stop unit has performed considerably better at home. Plus, Dallas hasn't been able to take advantage. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 6.6 points. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight Monday nighters. Bet the Bears. |
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 44 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -3
The Key: As if getting taken behind the woodshed Monday night isn't enough motivation, the Saints were swept by Carolina last season. Look for an extremely motivated New Orleans squad to bounce-back strong at home where it has been nearly unstoppable. The Saints are 6-0 at home on the season and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games. They are 17-4 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS in home games following a road loss during this span, winning by an average score of 36.3 to 14.9 in this situation. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game, 7-0 ATS in home games after being held to 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 39 m | Show |
7* NFC West Game of the Year on 49ers -2.5
The Key: The last two times the 49ers have played Seattle they have been completely and utterly embarrassed. Those losses are all the fuel the reigning NFC champs will need here. Those losses were both in Seattle. Things have gone much differently when these teams have met in San Francisco. The 49ers have won four straight at home in the series by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that carry a win percentage greater than 75%. The 49ers have defeated these teams by an average score of 29.1 to 20.4. There's nothing easy about playing on the road in a short week, especially when up against a team that is hungry to pay you back. Seattle took New Orleans apart, but the Seahawks are on a 5-18 ATS slide following a home blowout win of 21 points or more. Lay the points. |
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12-08-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 95 h 13 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Bengals -6
The Key: The Colts haven't been playing good football since beating Denver Oct. 20. They have played five games since and were blown out by St. Louis and Arizona and fortunate to win their other three games against Tennessee (twice) and Houston. I see another blowout loss coming as they go up against a Cincinnati team that has been tough as nails at home. The Bengals are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 home games, winning these by 14.7 points on average. Lay the points. |
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 | 20-27 | Win | 109 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Jaguars +3
The Key: It's been a miserable season for Houston, which entered the campaign with Super Bowl aspirations. After a loss to the Jaguars that they called "embarrassing", the Texans got up for New England but blew a 10-point lead and lost an 11th straight game. I think it will be very difficult for Houston to recover from that loss even in a revenge spot because of the weight of this trying season. While Houston is completely deflated, Jacksonville enters with momentum having won back-to-back games and 3 of its last 4. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus division opponents. The Texans are just 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse under Kubiak. Take the points. |
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -4.5
The Key: Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints haven't been the same team on the road where they have lost two of their last three and were fortunate to defeat the Buccaneers and Falcons. The Saints are just 6-8 in their last 14 road games, and their road struggles should continue against a Seattle squad that has won 13 straight at home. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 28.0 to 18.0. They are also 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 7 yards per pass or more over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6 yards per play or more over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 rushing yards per carry or more over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is also a perfect 9-0 ATS under coach Carroll as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, winning these games by an average score of 34.7 to 11.8. Lay the points. |
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +6 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Chiefs +6
The Key: The Chiefs are 0-2 SU & ATS since a 9-0 start. However, December home dogs or pickems that check in off two or more consecutive losses ATS are 92-48 ATS since 1983. In addition, you want to back home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent if they check in off an upset loss. That's because doing so has produced a 165-102 ATS mark since 1983. The Kansas City defense needs to bounce back here and history is in its favor. The Chiefs are 24-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992, and they have held teams to just 22.4 points in these games. You have to like their chances of keeping this one within the number if they can hold the Broncos to only 22 points. Keep in mind they held Denver to 17 points when they hosted the Broncos last season. Also, teams headed up by John Fox are 1-10 ATS all-time following an extremely close road loss of 3 points or less. Take the points. |
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12-01-13 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets -1 | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
6* AFC East Annihilator on Jets -1
The Key: The Jets have lost back-to-back games on the road to fall below .500, but they are still very much in the playoff hunt. I expect them to rebound at home where they are 4-1 SU & ATS this season and have wins over the Patriots and Saints. Miami hasn't been the same team on the road. It is 0-3 SU & ATS in its last 3 and 2-7 SU & ATS in its last 9 road games. The Dolphins are one of the worst offensive teams in football, and they'll struggle to move the ball on a New York stop unit that ranks 9th in the NFL in total defense. The Jets boast the 8th-ranked rushing attack in the league, and it should be able to find daylight against a Miami defense that allows 123.8 ypg on the ground (25th in the NFL). The Jets are 25-12 ATS versus Miami since 1992, and I expect them to build on this trend Sunday. |
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12-01-13 | New England Patriots v. Houston Texans +9 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Texans +9
The Key: It's been a miserable season for the Texans, who were thought to be a Super Bowl contenders entering the campaign. Still, they are not about to roll over for a New England squad that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. This will be a tough encore for New England following last week's emotionally and physically draining overtime victory against Denver. A letdown is inevitable. Plus, the Pats have struggled on the road where they have lost three straight and haven't won by more than seven points this season. Houston ranks No. 1 in the NFL in total defense as well as No. 1 against the pass. The Pats will get nothing easy against Houston's stop unit. Offensively, the Texans should find success running the football against a New England defense that ranks 31st in the league against the run. Underdogs or pickems that check in with 7 or more consecutive losses, provided they are playing in the second half of the season, are 89-41 ATS since 1983. You also want to fade favorites that have a winning record on the season and are coming off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 73-34 ATS mark since 1983, a 22-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons and a 17-3 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points. |
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
7* Thanksgiving *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -2.5
The Key: The Ravens have been an unbelievable home team over the years. In fact, they are 29-4 in their last 33 and 39-8 in their last 47 home games. At home, where they are allowing only 10.8 ppg this season, and out for revenge for last month's 19-16 loss at Pittsburgh, I expect the defending Super Bowl champs to rise to the occasion. The Steelers are just 2-4 on the road this season, giving up 24.5 ppg in these contests. Their road woes go back much further as they are a soft 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games. The Steelers haven't swept the regular-season series since 2008. Plus, the Ravens are 16-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less under coach Harbaugh, winning these games by an average score of 26.0 to 13.7. Lay the points. |
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Raiders +9.5
The Key: You want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won two of their last three games if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the seconds half of the season. That's because doing so has produced a 51-19 ATS mark since 1983. This system tightens up to 21-5 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, Dallas has been a terrible investment in the second half of the season. The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons, including 0-6 ATS during this span when at home and matched up against a team with a losing record. They have lost these six by an average score of 27.3 to 25.0. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are just 9-19 ATS as a favorite under coach Garrett. The Raiders are still in the mix for the AFCs second wild-card slot despite last week's loss to Tennessee. They have been an extraordinary bounce-back bet of late at 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Dallas has arguably the worst defense in the NFL this season, and it has been getting gashed on the ground lately. Oakland has the running attack to take advantage. Take the points. |
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins +6 | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Redskins +6
The Key: While the season hasn't gone as planned for Washington, the Redskins have remained competitive at home where they are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two. Going back to last season, Washington is 6-2 in its last eight regular-season home games with only one of the losses coming by more than six points, a seven-point loss to Detroit Sept. 22. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a winning road record. You also want to fade road favorites that have a win percentage of 60-75% that have covered the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and are matched up against a team with a losing record. That's because doing so produced a 36-12 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 5.6 points on average but have won by only 2.1 points on average. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 11 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Patriots +3
The Key: The Patriots lost a close one at Carolina Monday, but I expect them to respond at home where they are 5-0 this season and 4-0 ATS in their last 4. New England has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 30-12-1 ATS in its last 43 games following a loss. Playing on a short week can be tough, but the Pats have managed well, going 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 times they've played Sunday following a Monday night game. New England has been a tremendous underdog investment under coach Belichick at 40-20 ATS in the role. The Pats are also on a 20-8 ATS run as a home underdog. They are 6-0 ATS against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons, defeating them by an average score of 36.2 to 16.2. The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 versus Denver, winning these by 21.0 points on average. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games versus the Broncos, winning these by 26.3 points on average. This includes a 31-21 win over the Broncos last season. Manning and Brady have squared off 13 times. Brady is 9-4 in those matchups. Take the points. |
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11-24-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1 | 27-11 | Loss | -114 | 94 h 29 m | Show | |
6* AFC North Annihilator on Browns -1
The Key: Last week's 37-27 upset win over Detroit puts Pittsburgh in a negative situation this week. Consider that fading road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win by 10 points or more has produced a 48-21 ATS record since 1983 as long as the game takes place after the first month of the season. The road has been severely unkind to the Steelers in recent years. In fact, Pittsburgh is 6-15 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons, losing these by an average score of 27.7 to 22.0. They are also 0-6 ATS under coach Tomlin in road games after scoring 30 points or more last game. The Browns have been very competitive at home where they are 3-2 this season and have won 7 of their last 11. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams that have a losing road record. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Steelers, winning last season's home meeting 20-14. Take Cleveland. |
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11-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins +4.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 30 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Dolphins +4.5
The Key: The Panthers are primed for a letdown following Monday night's thrilling win over New England. Plus, Miami has been extremely competitive at home where it is 3-2 and hasn't lost by more than 3 points. Miami hasn't lost by more than 3 points in its last 7 home games. Looking back further, the Dolphins have lost by more than 3 points just 3 times in their last 19 home games. Miami has struggled since a 3-0 start, but it is 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons when checking in with losses in 4 or 5 out of its last 6 games. It has won by an average score of 24.2 to 11.0 in this situation. The Dolphins are also 4-0 SU and ATS all-time versus Carolina, winning these by 7.8 points on average. Miami has wins over Indy and Cincy - two of the top teams in the AFC - so it has shown it can take down top-notch competition. We'll take the points as Carolina's 6-game win streak is in serious jeopardy. |
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +10
The Key: Atlanta is having a season from hell, but it will not lay down for hated division rival New Orleans. The Falcons will treat this game as their Super Bowl. New Orleans has not been the same force on the road where it has been defeated or won by fewer than 6.5 points in 6 of its last 7 and 21 of its last 26 games. Atlanta, on the other hand, has been tremendous at home where it has lost by more than 5 points just twice in its last 21 games. The home team has had the edge in this rivalry of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. In addition, Atlanta has won or lost by fewer than 10 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings overall and 5 straight at home. You want to back home teams in the second half of the season if they have a win percentage of 25% or less, have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and are matched up against a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 75-39 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points. |
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers -1 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers -1
The Key: Look for the red-hot Panthers to keep right on rolling against a New England team that has struggled on the road. The Patriots are 2-2 on the road and could be 1-3 or even 0-4. They needed a field goal in the closing seconds to pull out a win at Buffalo, and they needed to hold off Falcons in the final in Atlanta. They were fortunate Atlanta scored only one touchdown on six trips inside the 20 that day. The Bills and Falcons are 6-15 combined and don't have overwhelming defenses. The Patriots have lost their last two road games against the Bengals and Jets - teams with Top 10 defensive units. They face arguably the best defense in the league tonight. The Panthers rank No. 1 in total and scoring defense with 283.3 yards and 12.8 points per game allowed. They have been tough as nails against the run and the pass. The Patriots haven't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing either. They put up big points in their last game against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are very mediocre defensively this year. The New England stop unit has struggled to stop the run, which means it will likely struggle to slow down Carolina's Top 10 running attack. You want to take all teams when the line is +3 to -3 following a close road win of 3 points or less, provided they have a winning percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark since 1983 and a perfect 8-0 ATS tally the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that New England is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. |
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -7.5
The Key: I'm not buying the Chiefs as a Super Bowl contender, which I strongly believe Denver is. The Chiefs have benefited from a favorable schedule and a +15 turnover margin. They are solid defensively, but I don't believe they are good enough to tame Denver's explosive offense. Kansas City won't be able to rely on its defense to make big plays in this one. Manning has just 6 INTs on the season. Kansas City's offense will have to do something, and I don't see it doing enough. The Chiefs rank 24th in the NFL in total offense, and they managed only 210 total yards while giving up 470 in their last game against Buffalo. Kansas City's bye week might not be a positive thing in this case, either, as it squashes its momentum. Denver is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are also 6-0 ATS off a road win against a division rival under coach John Fox, who is recovering from surgery but still has a hand on this team. The Chiefs have been crushed by good passing teams lately, going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams that average 260 passing yards or more per game. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 25.7 to 11.1. Denver is on an 18-6 ATS run in home games versus teams that give up 17.0 points or less per game. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 27.5 to 17.3. |
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11-17-13 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
6* NFL Early Annihilator on Bengals -6
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back overtime losses on the road, and further fueled by a 17-6 defeat at Cleveland in the season's first meeting, the Bengals will show no mercy here. Cincy is happy to be home where it is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five. It has won these by 13.4 points on average. The Bengals are 4-0 in their last four and 8-1 in their last nine home games against the Browns. These eight victories have come by an average of 7.0 points so we are getting the Bengals at a good number. You also want to back any team that is out for revenge for a loss where it was held to less than 9 points if it is coming off a loss of 3 points or less to a division opponent. That's because doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark since 1983. This rare system tightens up to 7-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Lay the number. |
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11-17-13 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 69 h 31 m | Show |
7* AFC East Game of the Year on Bills pk
The Key: The Jets haven't won consecutive games all season going 0-4 following a win. They have also struggled on the road where they are 1-3. Buffalo has been very competitive at home where it has wins over red-hot Carolina and the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. It has also given New England, Cincinnati and Kansas City all they wanted at Ralph Wilson Stadium. They outgained the Chiefs 470-210 in their last home game but were doomed by a 99-yard pick six and a fumble return TD. The yardage numbers tell the real story as they moved the ball comfortably against a very good Kansas City defense. They should be able to move it against the Jets as well. And, I don't expect New York to come up with as many big defensive plays as Kansas City did. After all, the Jets have forced only seven turnovers all season. Buffalo lost the season's first meeting and will be out for revenge as a result. The Bills won 28-9 in last season's home meeting against the Jets, and I expect them to take care of business again. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a road loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games taking place in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 24.0 points per game or more. You also want to fade teams that have a winning record that check in off an upset win at home. Doing so has produced a 148-78 (65.5%) ATS record since 1983. This system is already 5-1 ATS this season. Take Buffalo. |
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +3 | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Titans +3
The Key: Indianapolis has not been the same offensively since losing Reggie Wayne. The Colts should have lost to Houston as they were down 24-6 late in the third quarter, and they were stomped 38-8 by St. Louis last week. I expect their struggles to continue on the road in a short week against a Tennessee squad that ranks 9th in total defense and 8th against the pass. The Titans will be extremely motivated here as a win gets them within a game of first place in the division. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a capable backup, and Tennessee's run game should find success against an Indy defense that ranks 26th against the run. Tennessee has won, been tied at the end of regulation or lost by less than 3 points in six of its last seven home games against Indy. The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the points. |
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +3
The Key: The Buccaneers fit perfectly into a very lucrative situation that says to take underdogs or pickems after 7 or more consecutive losses if they are playing in the second half of the season. Doing so has produced an 88-41 (68.2%) ATS mark since 1983. Tampa Bay has been more competitive than its record leads you to believe. The Bucs have 4 losses of 3 points or less to the Jets, Saints, Cardinals and Seahawks - teams with winning records. Tampa Bay is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 against the Dolphins. It won 3 of these straight up with the lone loss coming by only 2 points. Take the points. |
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11-10-13 | Denver Broncos v. San Diego Chargers +7 | 28-20 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 6 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Chargers +7
The Key: Denver hasn't been the same team on the road where it struggled to beat the Cowboys and lost to the Colts. San Diego, on the other hand, has been formidable at home where it hasn't lost by more than 3 points and has wins over the Cowboys and Colts by 9 and 10 points, respectively. San Diego has won or lost by 7 points or less in 14 of its last 17 games against the Broncos. The Chargers have lost by more than 7 points just 4 times in their last 33 home games. The Bolts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points. |
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11-10-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons +5.5 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 41 m | Show | |
6* NFL Line Mistake on Falcons +5.5
The Key: Odds makers are giving Seattle too much respect in Atlanta Sunday. The Seahawks have been far from dominant on the road where they have only one win by more than 5 points this season. Atlanta has enjoyed one of the best home field advantages in the NFL in recent years, and it has just one loss by more than 5 points at home this season. Seattle has won by more than 5 points on the road just 10 times in its last 57 road games. Atlanta, meanwhile, has lost by more than 5 points just once in its last 20 home games. In addition, Atlanta has won or lost by less than 3 points in 6 straight meetings with Seattle. Atlanta was kicked last week at Carolina, but it is 11-1 ATS all-time under coach Smith after a loss by 10 or more points. It has won by an average score of 31.5 to 20.6 in this situation. Take the points. |
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers -1 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 42 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Packers -1
The Key: The Packers lost to the Bears Monday night with Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collarbone early in that game. Rodgers will miss this game, but don't count on the Packers losing two in a row at Lambeau. Green Bay is 29-3 in its last 32 regular-season games at home as well as 16-4 all-time in home games against the Eagles. The Bears haven't played particularly well on the defensive side of the football this season, but they know the Packers well. Plus, they benefited from Rodgers injury as Seneca Wallace was thrown to the wolves. The Eagles aren't nearly as familiar with Green Bay, and they'll see a much more prepared Wallace this week. In addition, Philadelphia has been dreadful defensively, ranking dead last in the NFL at 419.3 ypg allowed. Nick Foles had a career day last week, but I expect him to come back down to earth against a Green Bay stop unit that ranks 15th in the league at 345 ypg allowed. That defense will be bolstered by the expected return of Clay Matthews. The Packers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss, 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall, 7-19-1 ATS in their 27 games versus a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. Green Bay also has a significant advantage on special teams. It is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games in the second half of the season versus poor kickoff coverage teams that allow 24 yards or more per return. It has won by an average score of 37.3 to 17.5 in this situation. The Eagles are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons versus excellent punt return teams that average more than 12 yards per return. They have lost by an average score of 30.3 to 17.8 in this situation. Take Green Bay. |
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11-07-13 | Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Vikings +3
The Key: Washington hasn't won consecutive games this season and will have a tough time trying to do so tonight on the road on a short week. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Minnesota is 1-7, but it is a better team that its record leads you to believe. Consider that three of its defeats have come in the final minute so it's not a stretch to say the Vikes could be 4-4. Washington has struggled on the road where it is 1-3 SU and ATS this season. These losses have come by 18, 15 and 24 points. The Skins have been a notoriously poor favorite at 53-82 ATS since 1992. They've also been a poor investment against losing teams at 13-28-3 ATS in their last 44 against such opponents. Teams headed up by Mike Shanahan are 8-22 ATS when facing teams with a win percentage of 25% or less since 1992. This trend dips to 2-10 ATS if the game is being played in the second half of the season. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Take the points. |
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11-04-13 | Chicago Bears +11 v. Green Bay Packers | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +11
The Key: The Bears are missing some key pieces but an extra week of preparation gives them an excellent opportunity to give the Packers a game. You want to take underdogs or pickems that carry a win percentage of 51-60% following an upset loss on the road as doing so has produced a 30-9 ATS mark since 1983. You also want to fade favorites of 10.5 points or more that carry a win percentage of 60-75% if they have covered the spread in at least two of their last three games as doing so has produced a 72-36 ATS mark since 1983. The Chicago defense has struggled, giving up 6.4 yards per play. However, odds makers have consistently overvalued the Packers at home against such defenses. In fact, Green Bay is just 2-10 ATS in home games versus teams that allow 6.0 yards or more per play since 1992. The Packers have won these games but only by an average score of 27.8 to 24.6. Green Bay has dominated the Bears in recent years, but winning by this big of a margin has been rare. Consider that Chicago has won or lost by fewer than 11 points in 13 of the last 17 meetings. Take the points. |
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11-03-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +2.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Texans +2.5
The Key: The Colts upset Denver last time out. However, you want to fade road teams that are off an upset win at home if they have a winning record on the season. Doing so has produced a 102-52 ATS mark since 1983, and this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Most of the times teams come out of their bye week better than they were when they went in, but I don't believe that will be the case for Indy, simply because it won't have leading receiver Reggie Wayne on the field. With one less weapon to worry about, Houston's suffocating defense, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL overall and No. 1 against the pass, will really be able to swarm the Colts. The season hasn't gone as planned for the Texans, but they are clearly better than their record looks. They played the 8-0 Chiefs to a 1-point game on the road last time out. They also took the 7-1 Seahawks to OT. If they find a way to win those games, they're sitting at 4-3. I also can't fail to mention how valuable home field has been in this series. The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. Take the points. |
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11-03-13 | Tennessee Titans -3 v. St. Louis Rams | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 34 m | Show | |
6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Titans -3
The Key: Situationally speaking, this is a great spot for Tennessee and a bad spot for St. Louis. The Rams put everything they had into Monday's game against Seattle, and they came up short. That loss makes it very difficult for them to be ready to go here on just 5 days' rest. Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn't played since Oct. 20 so it has a huge edge in terms of health and preparation. You want to take road favorites when they are playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have won by an average of 10.3 points. You also want to take road favorites after 2 or more consecutive losses if they carry a win percentage of 40-49% and are matched up against a losing team. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. These teams have been favored by 3.1 points on average and has won by 9.8 points on average. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Lay the points. |
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11-03-13 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets +6.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 34 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6.5
The Key: Every time the Jets have got knocked down this season, they have responded the following week. They are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS following a loss this season, and I expect them to respond once again Sunday. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half when they're matched up against an opponent that scored 25 points or more in three straight games. That's because doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting this system have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average but have lost by only 1.2 points on average. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons. The Jets have been tremendous defensively, ranking 6th in the league in total defense with 315.0 ypg allowed. The Saints are one of the top offensive teams in the league, but I don't see them hitting on all cylinders on the road in an outdoor venue against this defense. New Orleans has lost or won by less than 6.5 points in 5 of its last 6 and 20 of its last 25 road games. Take the points. |
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10-31-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Dolphins +3
The Key: Miami has lost four in a row since a 3-0 start. However, the two home losses during this stretch came by just three and two points. The Bengals are coming off a blowout win at home over the Jets, but they haven't been the same team on the road where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than three points. Miami has had Cincy's number, going 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, including 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two. The Dolphins won last season's meetings in Cincinnati 17-13. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games while the Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games. Also, you want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they're a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. That's because doing so has produced a 71-34 ATS record since 1983. Take the points. |
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10-28-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +13 | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Rams +13
The Key: Seattle is clearly one of the best teams in the NFL, but it is being overvalued as a result. The Seahawks check in off a 34-22 win at Arizona, but they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a win of 10 points or more over a division rival. The Rams lost starting QB Sam Bradford last week and now must turn to Kellen Clemens. I expect the eight-year pro to play well tonight. The fact St. Louis reached out to Brett Favre's agent is a slap in the face of Clemens, and it provides him with extra motivation to play well. The Rams are 2-1 at home this season, and they have won two of their last three home games against the Seahawks. They pulled off a 19-13 upset win at home against the Seahawks last season and also played Seattle to a 7-point game on the road. The Rams have won or lost by 10 points or less in five of the last seven meetings. The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 division games and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points. |
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10-27-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 0 m | Show |
7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Vikings +10
The Key: The Vikings were embarrassed on national TV Monday night, and they'll be out to save face here. They will be lacking no confidence as they go up against a Green Bay squad they defeated 37-34 at home last season. Christian Ponder is back under center, and he'll be very motivated to show the organization that they should not have given up on him so quickly. He completed 16 of 28 passes for 234 yards with 3 TDs and no picks in last season's home win against the Packers. Minnesota was very competitive in its first four games of the season because it was committed to running the football. It has gone away from that in its last two games and has paid the price. You can bet the Vikings have learned their lesson and that they'll look to run the football here against a team they averaged 208.0 rushing yards per game against last season. The Packers are coming off a 31-13 victory over Cleveland, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. Also, you want play against favorites that check in off a win of 14 points or more if they are up against an opponent that checks in off two straight defeats of 10 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 26-7 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams in this situation have been favored by 9.1 points on average but have won by only 2.5 points on average. Home field has been huge in this rivalry as the home side is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Vikings are 6-0 ATS since the beginning of last season versus poor kickoff coverage teams like Green Bay that give up 24.0 yards or more per return. Take the points. |
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10-27-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 14 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -1
The Key: Off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NFL (49ers and Seahawks), the Cardinals will be ready to take their frustrations out on the struggling Falcons. Atlanta ended a 3-game skid with a win over lowly Tampa Bay last week, but the banged-up Falcons face a much tougher task here as they hit the road for the first time since Sept. 22. They are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. With Julio Jones out and Roddy White and Stephen Jackson not at 100 percent, this Atlanta offense is not high-octane enough to overcome a defense that's giving up 26.2 ppg. You want to fade road underdogs or pickems that average 23-27 ppg if they scored 24 points or more in the first half last game and are matched up against a team that gives up 18-23 ppg. Doing so has produced a 4-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and a 26-6 ATS since 1983. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the number. |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions -3 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 35 m | Show | |
6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Lions -3
The Key: The Cowboys claimed sole possession of first place in the NFC East with last week's 17-3 victory at Philadelphia, but they have been a dead fade following a victory at 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win. Also, you want to go against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that held their opponent to 6 points or less last game if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off a loss of 3 points or less. That's because doing so has produced a 3-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons, an 11-1 ATS record the last 10 seasons and a 23-5 ATS record since 1983. Not much should be read into Dallas' defensive performance against the Eagles as it is 5-22 ATS in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. It has lost by an average score of 23.9 to 17.1 in this situation. I'll lay the small number with the Lions at home. |
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10-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Buccaneers +7
The Key: Tampa Bay is 0-6, but it's not like it has been getting pummeled. Just two of its losses have come by double digits with three coming by three points or less. And it's not like the Bucs have been playing a bunch of cupcakes. They have played New Orleans, the New York Jets and New England Patriots. Carolina has benefited from a much lighter schedule. Since opening against Seattle, it has played Buffalo, the New York Giants, Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis - all losing teams. Carolina has struggled on the road where it is just 9-22 in its last 31. It has also struggled against Tampa Bay, going 2-4 in the last 6 meetings, including 0-2 last year. It is also worth noting that Tampa Bay has won or lost by 7 points or less in 4 of its last 5 home games versus the Panthers. Tampa Bay stifled Carolina's running attack last season, holding the Panthers to only 10 yards on the ground in the home meeting. The Bucs still boast a nasty run defense, one that ranks 5th in the league. I believe the run defense will be the key to a cover tonight. |
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10-21-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. NY Giants -3 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants -3
The Key: The Giants are off to a miserable 0-6 start, but only two of the losses have come at home. They play four of their next five at home so they believe they can get back on track. They have had 10 days of preparation time because they played the Thursday game last week. The extra time off should serve them well both physically and mentally as such a rough start can be very draining. The Vikings are off to a rough start as well, and I believe they'll struggle offensively tonight with Josh Freeman expected to get the start. He hasn't had very long to learn a new system and was playing very poorly in Tampa Bay. The New York defense has struggled, but the Minnesota stop unit has been even worse. It ranks dead last in the NFL with 419.6 yards allowed per game. The Vikings have especially struggled against the pass, which bodes well for Eli Manning and his group of talented receivers. Interceptions have been an issue for the two-time Super Bowl MVP, but it's only a matter of time before he finds his groove, and I believe it's tonight against a poor defense. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Also, the Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday Night Football contests. Lay the points. |
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10-20-13 | Denver Broncos v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 76 h 54 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Colts +7
The Key: While I consider the 6-0 Broncos to be a legit Super Bowl contender, I can also acknowledge the fact they are yet to play an opponent of the caliber of the Colts. None of Denver's wins have come against teams that currently have a winning record. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has impressive wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. I'm confident we'll see a strong effort from the Colts here as they bounce back from their worst performance of the season. Indy is 6-0 SU and ATS since the beginning of last season when it checks into a game following a defeat. It has won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.5 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Colts are 7-0 SU and ATS since the start of last season in home games that come after the first month of the season. They have won these contests by an average score of 25.6 to 20.0. Denver has the worst pass defense in the NFL. It is giving up 337.7 yards per game. That bodes well for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Denver has moved the ball with ease to this point, but that figures to change here as it goes up against the NFL's 5th-ranked pass defense. The Colts also rank 4th in scoring defense, holding opponents to 16.3 points per game. Take the points. |
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10-20-13 | Houston Texans +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 72 h 49 m | Show |
7* NFL Public Burial Game of the Month on Texans +7
The Key: The public is all over the 6-0 Chiefs, but I'm not ready to drink the Kansas City Kool-Aid. The Chiefs' wins have come against the Jaguars, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Titans and Raiders. None of these teams have a winning record, and they are a combined 11-25 on the season. The Texans have lost four in a row since winning their first two, but three of their losses (Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle) have come against who I would consider to be quality opponents. And, Houston really should have defeated the Seahawks, who is arguably the best team in the NFL. Turnovers have been an issue for the Texans, but Matt Schaub, who has been the worst offender, isn't expected to play. Regardless if it's T.J. Yates or Case Keenum, the Texans will look to pound the football against Kansas City's 23rd-ranked run defense. Houston has the 6th-best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs haven't been very impressive offensively, ranking 25th in total offense with 326.3 yards per game. Yards will be tough to come by against a Houston stop unit that leads the league with 252.8 yards per game allowed. This line has everything to do with public perception, and I'm confident the Texans are better than they have shown and the Chiefs aren't as good as their record looks. You want to fade teams that are coming off a victory of 14 points or more if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off two consecutive defeats of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 31-10 ATS result the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 14-4 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points. |
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10-20-13 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets +3.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 68 h 24 m | Show | |
6* AFC East Game of the Week on Jets +3.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Patriots following last week's thrilling comeback win against the Saints. The Jets suffered a letdown of their own last week following a big win over the Falcons, but they'll have no trouble getting up for this one. The Jets will be out to end a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Two of the last three games between these two division rivals have been decided by three points. The Jets played New England to a three-point game in the season's first matchup despite four turnovers because their defense held Tom Brady and company to just 232 total yards. Geno Smith is more polished and confident than he was back in Week 2, and the Patriots are in worse shape defensively following the losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The defense is also expected to be without Tommy Kelly and Aqib Talib. New England's offense is also yet to really get going, and it looks like Brady won't have Danny Amendola this week. The Jets are 16-4 ATS in home games following a home loss since 1992. They have won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.6 in this situation. Take the points. |
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10-20-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 | 24-6 | Loss | -133 | 68 h 23 m | Show | |
6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Jaguars +9.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Chargers. They're feeling good about themselves following a big win over the Colts, but now they have to travel clear across the country on a short week to face a Jacksonville team that gained confidence with a good showing in Denver. We saw how unmotivated the Broncos were to play Jacksonville last week, and I expect a lethargic performance from San Diego here as well. The Chargers have lost their last two on the road to the Titans and Raiders - teams not considered to be playoff contenders. San Diego does have one road win this season, but that came by only three points in Philadelphia so we are getting good line value with the Jaguars catching over a touchdown. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. You also want to take underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points or less per game after a game where they allowed 35 points or more. Doing so has produced a 55-26 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lastly, Jacksonville is 10-2 ATS all-time after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation was live last week, and the Jags got the easy cover. |
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10-17-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +7 | Top | 34-22 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +7
The Key: In case Arizona's 32-20 loss at San Francisco doesn't provide enough motivation, a 58-0 loss the last time it faced the Seahawks certainly will. The Cardinals have been very resilient of late. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Seahawks haven't been the same team on the road where they struggled with Carolina and Houston and lost to Indianapolis. Arizona, on the other hand, has been at its best at home where it defeated a good Detroit team and clobbered Carolina 22-6. Home field has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Arizona. Teams headed up by coach Arians are 8-0 ATS all-time at home, winning by an average score of 24.0 to 17.4. Take the points. |
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers +2.5
The Key: The Chargers are coming off a disappointing performance at Oakland, committing five turnovers in a 27-17 loss. However, they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games following defeat, winning these by 8.0 points on average. Also, you want to fade road teams that scored 30 points or more in their previous game when they're up against a team that was held to 3 points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced an 84-43 ATS record the last 10 seasons. It is worth noting that this system is 4-1 ATS this season. San Diego has been terrific at home for years, going 41-17 in home regular-season games dating back to the 2006-07 season. Also, the underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams. Riding high off a big win over Seattle and with Denver on deck, this is a sandwich game for the Colts. Take San Diego. |
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10-13-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 | 31-20 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 22 m | Show | |
6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +2
The Key: Motivated by an 0-4 start where three of the losses came by three points or less, and having had a bye week to prepare, Tampa Bay is in great position to break into the win column. All four of Tampa Bay's losses have come to winning teams (Jets, Saints, Patriots, Cardinals). The Bucs played the 5-0 Saints to a two-point game at home so there's no doubt they have what it takes to beat the Eagles. Philly's two wins have come against the struggling Redskins and Giants, who are a combined 1-8. In its two games against winning teams (Chiefs and Broncos), it was smoked by double digits in each. Mike Glennon will be making his second career start, but I'm expecting a solid performance against a defense that ranks 31st in the league with 434 ypg allowed. The Eagles have gone 19 games without recording back-to-back wins. They are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take Tampa Bay. |
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10-13-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. NY Jets | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 72 h 36 m | Show | |
6* AFC *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Jets, who are coming off a big Monday night win in Atlanta and have had only five days to prepare for a Pittsburgh squad that's coming off a bye week. There's still a lot of games left to be played, and this proud Pittsburgh franchise isn't about to pack it in. The Steelers have remained sound defensively, ranking 10th in the league with 321.8 ypg allowed. They are fifth against the pass and should have plenty of success against New York rookie QB Geno Smith. The Steelers have terrorized rookie signal callers under DC Dick LeBeau, going 16-2 against teams starting rookie QBs during his watch. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall versus losing teams. Road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season, are 64-31 ATS the last 10 seasons. Also, road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 26-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-13-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Houston Texans -7 | Top | 38-13 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 21 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texans -7
The Key: The season has not gone as planned thus far for a Houston team with Super Bowl aspirations, but I believe we'll see a championship-caliber performance from the Texans here. They've lost three in a row with their most recent defeat being a brutal 34-3 loss at San Francisco, and they'll be extremely motivated as a result. Houston is the top defensive team in the league, allowing only 260.2 yards per game. It also ranks No. 1 in pass defense, which is significant because the Rams rely heavily on the passing game. The Houston stop unit has done its job, and the offense has been solid as well, ranking 7th with 390.8 ypg. Unfortunately, turnovers have been an issue. QB Matt Schaub knows he has to play better, and I fully expect him to do so against a St. Louis defense that ranks 23rd in the league with 382.4 ypg allowed. Plus, the Rams have really struggled against the run, ranking 29th with 126 ypg allowed. This means Arian Foster could be poised for a huge game. The Rams are on a 1-12 ATS slide in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards or more per game. They are also on a 0-7 ATS skid in road games versus dominant ball control teams that average 32+ minutes of possession time and 21+ first downs per game. The Rams have lost these seven games by an average score of 27.3 to 8.9. Lastly, you want to play against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game when they're up against an opponent that was held to 3 points or less in the first half last game. Doing so has produced an 84-42 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is already 4-0 ATS this season. Take Houston. |
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10-10-13 | NY Giants +9 v. Chicago Bears | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Giants +9
The Key: The Bears are getting too much respect from odds makers here. They have lost their last two games by eight points and have only one win by more than three points this season. The Giants aren't as bad as their record looks. They won nine games last season. They have been hurt by turnovers. The Bears are one of the best in the business at forcing turnovers, but I expect a conservative game plan from New York knowing that. Plus, Chicago has forced at least three turnovers in four of its games and has come away with only one win of more than three points. Eli Manning is a much better player than he's showed thus far, and it's only a matter of time before he settles in. Any NFL team would take him over Jay Cutler. You want to fade teams like Chicago that are coming off one or more consecutive losses against the spread that have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. Doing so has produced a 67-33 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC foes. It is also worth noting that the road team has dominated this series. The road team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings with the Giants going 4-0 SU and ATS in Chicago during this span. Take the points. |
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10-07-13 | NY Jets v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
6* MNF "Total" Annihilator on Jets/Falcons Under 44.5
The Key: You want to play the under on home teams in games when the total is between 42.5 and 49.0 points if they have a +/- 3.0 points per game differential and are up against a team with a -3 to -7 points per game differential. Doing so has produced a 70-31 unders run since 1983. We have seen an average total line of 44.6 points in this situation but just 41.5 total points scored on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 13-0 the last three seasons. In addition, the Falcons went 6-0 under in home games after the first month of the season last season, holding opponents to just 14.5 points during this stretch. Last year, Atlanta really settled in defensively once October hit, and I expect more of the same this year. The Jets have been outstanding defensively this season, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 283 yards allowed per game. Even though the offense did the defense no favors with four turnovers in last week's 38-13 loss to Tennessee, this stellar defense is not at all happy about the 38 points that were on the scoreboard. I expect a very strong performance from the New York defense tonight. Take the under. |
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10-06-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 106 h 36 m | Show | |
6* NFL Sunday Night Bailout on Raiders +5
The Key: The Chargers are getting too much respect on the road against an Oakland team that took a very good Colts team down to the wire and played Denver tougher than anyone else this season. The Chargers check in off a strong performance against Dallas but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a victory. The Raiders will be very motivated here. Not only have they lost their last two, but they were swept by the San Diego in last year's series. One of those losses came by only three points, and the Raiders have won or lost by three points in four of the last six meetings. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points. |
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10-06-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +1 | 26-18 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 26 m | Show | |
6* NFC Game of the Week on Bears +1
The Key: New Orleans looked good Monday night, but it is at a disadvantage here with one less day to prepare. Plus, it has not been the same team on the road. The Saints were fortunate to win at Tampa Bay in Week 2. They did not cover the spread in that game and squeaked by with a two-point victory against a team that's now 0-4. The Saints were on a 3-6 slide on the road prior to that game, and one of those wins came in OT against Dallas so they easily could have been on a 2-7 skid. Home field has been a big deal in this series. The home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the wins coming by 13.3 points on average. Three of these wins were by the Bears. In terms of the line, the home team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the series. Take Chicago. |
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10-06-13 | New England Patriots v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 96 h 55 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Year on Bengals pk
The Key: Motivated by last week's ugly loss in Cleveland, this incredibly talented Bengals teams will bounce back strong at home where it is 2-0 SU and ATS on the season. The Patriots are 4-0, but I'm not sold. They were fortunate to win their first two against the Bills and Jets and were outgained in last week's win against the Falcons. Despite playing a very soft schedule to this point, New England enters the week ranked just 16th in total defense and 20th in scoring offense. Cincy enters the week ranked 13th in total defense. Its offense is yet to get untracked, but I love it to do so here. New England showed just how vulnerable it is in the back when it gave up 399 passing yards last week. Plus, it will miss defensive tackle Vince Wilfork immensely. The Bengals are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, you want to fade road underdogs or pickems that scored 30 points or more in their last game when they are matched up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 41-15 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 18-6 ATS the last five seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Last week's loss at Cleveland will serve as the wake-up call Cincy needed. Bet the Bengals. |
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10-03-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns -3.5 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Browns -3.5
The Key: Winning on the road on a short week is too much to ask of the battered Bills. Buffalo is 0-5 in its last five road games with each of these losses coming by at least six points. The Bills upset Baltimore at home Sunday, but they are 1-9 ATS on the road after a game at home since the start of the 2011 season. They have lost by an average score of 32.5 to 15.3 in these 10 instances. The Browns enter with some nice momentum following back-to-back victories, and they aren't satisfied. They now believe that they can contend in the AFC North. The Browns have a sizable advantage on the defensive side of the football. They rank 3rd in total defense while the Bills rank 27th. It is also bodes well for Cleveland that Buffalo is wounded. Both Buffalo backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are dealing with injuries as well as receiver Stevie Johnson. In the secondary, starters Jairus Byrd and Leodis McKelvin are dealing with injuries. Lay the points. |