7* Rockets/Warriors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -10

The Key: After getting thoroughly embarrassed in Game 4, and knowing that the Cavs already clinched a trip to the NBA Finals, I look for the Golden State Warriors to close out this series with a blowout home victory in Game 5.  The Warriors allowed the Rockets to shoot 56.6% in Game 4, which is simply unacceptable.  Look for them to come out with more of a sense of urgency in Game 5 tonight on both ends of the floor.  Golden State is 8-0 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Warriors are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss.  Take Golden State.

7* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: After an extremely high-scoring Game 3 in this series, I feel that the oddsmakers have set the total too high for Game 4.  They have raised the total up from 190 in Game 3 to 194 for Game 4 based on the last contest alone.  The Cavaliers are short-handed offensively right now as they are likely without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love again.  The Hawks are without Kyle Korver for the rest of the postseason, which really hurts their floor spacing.  Lebron James is also hurt right now, but playing through it.  Atlanta is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 when facing elimination in a playoff series.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks' last five games overall.  The UNDER is 36-16-1 in Cavaliers last 53 when playing on one days' rest.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -4.5

The Key: I just cannot foresee the Houston Rockets even showing up tonight in Game 4.  They would have to show some pride to do so, but after losing Game 3 by 35 points, they obviously have no pride.  The Warriors will end this series with yet another blowout victory in Game 4 tonight.  They have been playing lights out for a couple weeks now with six straight wins, four of which have come by double-digits.  Golden State has gone 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games following a win by 15 points or more as well.  Take Golden State.

7* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +9.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have not even looked good in losing their first two games of this series to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  As a result, the oddsmakers have overreacted in listing the Cavaliers as big favorites in Game 3.  The Hawks know that their season is at stake today, so they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win.  I believe their effort will be good enough to cover this inflated 9.5-point spread today.  The Hawks are 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses against an opponent) this season.  They are a great bet in this situation today.  Take Atlanta.

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on OVER 214

The Key: This is strictly a value play.  The oddsmakers set the Warriors/Rockets total at 220 for Game 1 and 219 for Game 2.  Now, they have lowered the total all the way down to 214 for Game 3.  They have been forced to do so because the first two games went under the total.  Now, the clear value is with the over in Game 3.  Te OVER is 11-3 in Rockets last 14 home games.  The OVER is 14-6 in Rockets last 20 games overall.  The OVER is 37-18 in Rockets last 55 games following a loss.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -1

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are already playing without Kevin Love.  Now, both Lebron James and Kyrie Irving are hobbled.  James suffered an ankle injury in Game 1, while Irving was non-existent in the opener as he's clearly still nursing his knee injury.  J.R. Smith was there to save the day as he scored 28 points, including 8-of-12 from 3-point range.  That was a once-a-playoffs game for Smith, who can't keep this up.  It's clear that James and Irving are going to need some more help in Game 2, and I just don't believe they'll get it.  The Hawks will be playing with an edge tonight as they look to avoid falling down 0-2 in this series.  After all, they are 40-8 at home this season and rarely lose here.  The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games when revenging a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three years.  Take Atlanta.

6* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Golden State -10

The Key: The Houston Rockets played great in Game 1 and still lost.  James Harden could not have had a better game as he did everything in his power to keep the Rockets in the game, but it still wasn't enough.  Don't expect the Rockets to get that kind of game from Harden again.  Now, Dwight Howard is injured and may not play for them in Game 2.  Meanwhile, Golden State got a big game from Stephon Curry, but the rest of the starting lineup was ho-hum, and Klay Thompson has his worst game of the playoffs.  Look for the Warriors to get more help for Curry in Game 2, which will help them cover this 10-point spread.  The Warriors are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Golden State.

7* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta PK

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have gone 40-7 at home this season.  Yet, the oddsmakers aren't giving them any respect here as they aren't even favored against the Cavaliers.  That's the same Cavaliers team that they have gone 3-1 against this season with all three wins coming by 8-plus points.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Atlanta has owned Cleveland at home here of late, going 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Take Atlanta.

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -10

The Key: The Golden State Warriors have a huge edge in the rest department in Game 1 tonight.  They come in on three days' rest since taking out the Grizzlies in six games.  The Rockets only come in on one days' rest after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers.  There's no question that this will be an advantage for the Warriors, who catch the Rockets emotionally and physically drained.  Golden State beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series, and I look for a similar result in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when playing on three or more days of rest.  The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take Golden State.

7* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -2

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers showed their resiliency in the opening round.  They had the toughest opening round opponent in the San Antonio Spurs, and found themselves down 3-2 facing a road game in Game 6.  They went into San Antonio and won, and then they finished off the series with an exciting home win in Game 7.  While they let Game 6 slip away in this series, I fully expect them to respond in Game 7 with a road win at Houston.  Plays on road favorites playing with double revenge after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points are 57-24 ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites who give up 99 or more points per game after allowing 55 or more points in the first half of two straight games are 45-14 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 6 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in this series, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for it.  The first total of this series was 196 points, and the total for Game 6 is only 194 points.  I still believe there's a ton of value here on the UNDER considering these teams haven't combined for more than 188 points in any game yet.  They have averaged just 184.6 combined points per game in the series, which is still nearly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  Plus, this game will be played in Memphis, and that means the Grizzlies will likely control the tempo as they love to play a half-court game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors L6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 Conference Semifinals games.  The UNDER is 24-2 in Grizzllies last 26 home games.  Take this combined 36-2 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Bulls UNDER 192

The Key: The over has gone 3-1 in the last four games in this series.  That has provided us with ample value on the UNDER tonight.  Games in Chicago have been much lower-scoring than games in Cleveland, simply because Chicago controls the tempo when playing at home, and it likes to play at a slower pace.  These teams have averaged 182.5 combined points per game in the two meetings in Chicago this series.  In an elimination game, the intensity will be high for both teams, especially on the defensive end of the floor.  The Bulls are 33-23 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season.  Chicago is 11-3 UNDER after covering 5 or 6 of its last 7 games this season.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Cavs last 5 road games.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Cavs last 51 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  Take the UNDER.

7* Grizzlies/Warriors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +9.5

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies are showing great value as nearly double-digit underdogs to the Golden State Warriors tonight in Game 5.  This line is clearly an overreaction from Golden State winning Game 4 by 17 points in Memphis.  The Grizzlies had their worst shooting game of the series at 37.5% in that contest to essentially give it away.  I look for them to get back up into the 45% range in Game 5, where they have been most of the series.  The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  Memphis is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Golden State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games.  Take Memphis.

7* Clippers/Rockets Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 219

The Key: With the OVER being 4-0 through the first four games of this series, I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in Game 5.  It's clear that the hack-a-Jordan has not worked for the Rockets, and I expect them to go away from it tonight, which will aid the under.  They just cannot afford to have so many guys in foul trouble as it has continued to haunt them in the second half of most of these games.  This 219-point total is seven points higher than Game 1's 212-point total, which alone shows that there is value with the UNDER.  Plays on the UNDER on teams where the total is greater than 210 (Clippers) - after a win by 10 pints or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 or more in two straight games are 41-10 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 196

The Key: The reason the Memphis Grizzlies have a 2-1 series lead is because they have forced the Golden State Warriors to play at their pace both home and away.  They have combined for 187, 187 and 188 points as the UNDER is 3-0 in the first three games in this series.  I look for more of the same in Game 4 with the Grizzlies controlling the tempo playing at home.  Memphis is 25-8 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  The UNDER is 23-3 in Grizzlies last 26 home games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -2.5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a must-win situation tonight in Chicago.  Lebron James tends to play his best games with his back against the wall, and I look for him to lead the Cavs to victory in Game 4 tonight to avoid falling to 1-3 in this series.  The Cavs caught a break when Pau Gasol injured his hamstring in Game 3, putting his status for Game 4 in question.  Chicago is 23-43 ATS in its last 66 home games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.  Following a Game 1 loss, they responded with a 15-point victory in Game 2.  Expect more of the same today.  Take Cleveland.

7* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks smell blood in the water.  They took advantage of John Wall being out in Game 2 and ran away with a 106-90 victory.  I believe another blowout victory is in store in Game 3 with the Wizards expected to be without Wall again.  There may not be one player more important to their team than Wall, who runs the show offensively while putting up huge assists numbers up to this point in the playoffs.  The Wizards are 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.  Washington is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take Atlanta.

7* Cavs/Bulls Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: This is the highest total set yet in this series between the Cavs and Bulls.  That's because they are coming off and OVER in Game 2 where they combined for 197 points as the Cavs put up 106 and shot 12 of 26 from 3-point range.  I look for Game 3 to be much lower scoring, and the fact that this is the highest total yet in the series signifies some line value here with the UNDER.  Chicago doesn't want to get in a track meet, and it will control the tempo playing at home this time around.  Chicago is 16-5 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Cavs last 30 Conference Semifinals games.  The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Cavs last 61 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven games off a S.U. loss.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Key: The Houston Rockets know they let a golden opportunity slip away in Game 1 by not showing up with the effort they needed to beat the Clippers without Chris Paul.  The Clippers are expected to be without Paul again, so don't expect the same lackluster effort from the Rockets as they look to avoid dropping to 0-2.  The Rockets have been tremendous in this situation all season where they are coming off a bad performance and time and time again bounce back.  Houston is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by 10.7 points per game.  Houston is 7-0 ATS off an upset by 10 points or more as a favorite, winning by 12.7 points per game.  The Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss this season.  Take this combined 29-2 system backing Houston straight to the bank tonight.  Take Houston.

7* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -6

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks shot a measly 37.8% in Game 1 against the Washington Wizards and still had a chance to win in the end.  They shoot 46.3% as a team and 47.0% at home, so that was clearly a down game for them offensively.  I expect them to make those open shots tonight in a crucial Game 2.  I also expect the Wizards to suffer a letdown after taking Game 1 to gain home-court advantage in this series.  The Wizards aren't at full strength right now, either, as stud guards John Wall and Bradley Beal are both banged up.  Atlanta is 38-7 at home this season, winning by 8.1 points per game.  The Hawks are 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  Take Atlanta.

7* Bulls/Cavaliers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago Bulls +5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to have to deal with being without Kevin Love for the rest of the postseason.  They clearly aren't as strong of a team without him.  I believe they are extremely vulnerable now, and that will show in Game 1 against the Chicago Bulls.  Cleveland hasn't played since April 26th and it will be rusty, while Chicago played last on April 30th, getting just about the perfect amount of rest in between series.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams that score 103+ points/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Bulls are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Cleveland.  Take Chicago.

6* Grizzlies/Warriors Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Memphis +10

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies get the nod Sunday as double-digit underdogs to the Golden State Warriors in Game 1.  I really believe the Warriors are overvalued because they had the best record in the NBA this season, and they are the #1 seed.  It's not easy to beat anyone in the playoffs by double-digits, and the Grizzlies know they need to steal Game 1 if they want to have a chance in this series.  The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Grizzlies.  Take Memphis.

7* Spurs/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Clippers -2.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers have outplayed the Spurs in this series.  They barely lost Game 2 and Game 5 and could have easily won both had the ball bounced their way.  I love the resiliency they've shown in Game 4 and Game 6 victories with their backs against the wall on the road.  I look for them to take care of business at home in Game 7 and finish off the defending champs.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Hawks/Nets Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have let the Nets hang around in this series.  After a huge Game 5 victory, I have not doubt they close them out in Game 6 with a win and cover.  They dominated from start to finish in Game 5 and they'll do the same in Game 6.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Hawks Friday.

7* Bulls/Bucks Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5

The Key: After losing the last two games of this series narrowly, I look for the Chicago Bulls to put away the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 6.  They are the superior team and have experience in these situations, and I look for that experience to come in handy here.  Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season.   The Bucks are 0-8 ATS off a road win against a division rival over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.  Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Milwaukee.  Take Chicago.

7* Nets/Hawks Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 200.5

The Key: Prior to the Nets' 120-115 (OT) win over the Hawks in Game 4, this was a very low scoring series.  They had combined for 191 points in Game 1, 187 in Game 2 and 174 in Game 3.  I look for Game 5 to be played more like the first three games rather than Game 4 with what's at stake with this series tied 2-2.  There's no doubt both teams will be laying it on the line defensively to get a win.  Brooklyn is 12-2 UNDER in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-5 in Nets last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 conference quarterfinal games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Mavericks/Rockets Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +7

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks showed a lot of heart in winning Game 4 to extend this series after falling behind 3-0.  They aren't about to give in now.  Just like the Bucks did last night against the Bulls in winning two straight following a 3-0 deficit, I look for the Mavericks to give the Rockets a run for their money in Game 5 and likely pull off the upset.  They were at least competitive in their two trips to Houston, losing by 10 and 12 points.  They shot 44.4% in Game 1 and 37.1% in Game 2, and I just cannot see them shooting that poorly again.  They shot 52.3% in Game 3 and 54.3% in Game 4, so they have clearly figured something out against this Houston defense.  Plays on poor defensive road teams that allow 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games are 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take Dallas.

7* Hawks/Nets Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn +5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have shown that they can play with the Atlanta Hawks, who just aren't the same team that had the best record in the East during the regular season.  The Nets have held the Hawks to 92.7 points per game on 39.0 percent shooting through the first three games of this series.  After losing by single-digits in the first two games, they got a huge Game 3 victory, and I look for them to carry that momentum into this Game 4 tonight.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Hawks are 1-11 ATS off two straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets have won 8 of their last 10 home games.  Take Brooklyn.

7* Rockets/Mavericks Sunday Night "Bailout" on UNDER 220.5

The Key: This number has been inflated due to one of the highest-scoring games in postseason history in Game 3 between the Mavs and Rockets.  They combined for 258 points in regulation in Game 3, which was a complete aberration based on what these teams have done lately when up against each other.  The UNDER is actually 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have combined for 211 or fewer points in five of those seven contests.  The total for Game 1 was 212.5, so the fact that this total in Game 4 is 220.5 shows you that there's value with the under.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets +3

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have hung right with the Atlanta Hawks in the first two games of this series, losing by 7 and 5 points.  Now, they return home where I expect them to get back in the series with a Game 3 victory.  Atlanta is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Hawks are 13-30 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest over the last 3 seasons.  The Hawks are 1-10 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets are 14-5 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season.  Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons.  Take Brooklyn.

7* Rockets/Mavericks Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -1

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are in a must-win situation tonight after falling behind 0-2 in this series.  I look for them to take care of business at home in Game 3 and to get right back into this series.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this Texas rivalry as the home team is now 5-1 straight up & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Mavericks are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 Conference Quarterfinals games.  The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Dallas.  Take Dallas.

7* Thursday NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 187

The Key: Games in the NBA playoffs tend to get more lower scoring as they go on.  That has been the case in this series as these teams scored 194 combined points in Game 1, but just 173 in Game 2.  Given the recent history of this series, I like for this game to stay well UNDER the 187-point total in Game 3.  The Bulls and Bucks have combined for 173, 194, 186, 158, 182 and 181 points in their last six meetings with the UNDER going 5-1.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points.  That means we're getting roughly 8 points of value on this UNDER based on recent history, which is a lot.  Chicago is 14-3 UNDER following two consecutive home wins.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Key: This line is inflated because it's a #1 seed vs. a #8 seed.  The same was true in the Western Conference as the Pelicans covered Game 1 and Game 2 despite losing straight up.  I believe the same is the case in the East here after the Nets covered in Game 1 in a 7-point loss as 11-point underdogs.  I just like the way that Brooklyn has played down the stretch.  It won 13 of its final 19 games of the regular season just to get in the playoffs.  It still has a plethora of talent with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez & Joe Johnson leading the way.  Lopez has been especially dominant.  He should have a big game against an injury-riddled Atlanta front line that is seeing both Paul Millsap and Al Horford struggle playing through injuries.  Brooklyn has stepped up its game against good competition, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 against teams winning 60% of their games or better.  The Hawks are 1-9 ATS after recording 10 or more steals in two straight games, and 13-29 ATS in their last 42 on two days' rest.  Take Brooklyn.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 192.5

The Key: The books have once again set the number too high in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the four meetings between these teams despite two of those games going to overtime.  They have combined for 187, 188 and 179 (Game 1) points in the three unders.  They were only at 164 combined points before overtime in Game 1.  While I expect this game to be a little higher scoring in regulation, I still believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER 192.5.  Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games after playing two more more consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER.

7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans +12.5

The Key: I cashed in the Pelicans +12 in Game 1 in a 7-point loss to the Warriors.  I'll be backing them again in Game 2 as they'll be motivated to steal a win and even up this series heading back to New Orleans.  I just really like the way this team is playing now that they are finally healthy, which hasn't been the case until here recently.  They have won 8 of their last 12 games overall, including wins over the Spurs and Warriors.  Three of their four losses during this stretch have come by single-digits, too.  Golden State is having a hard time living up to the expectations it has created for itself from the oddsmakers.  It is now 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Pelicans are 26-13 (67%) ATS as underdogs this season.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a victory.  Take New Orleans.

7* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +1

They Key: The Clippers might be the most underrated team heading into the playoffs.  They are underdogs at home to the Spurs when they shouldn't be tonight.  They have gone 14-1 in their last 15 games overall and are obviously coming in with a ton of confidence because of it.  San Antonio is rested, but that's not necessarily a good thing considering it is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Also, plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans +12

The Key: The most amazing part about the New Orleans Pelicans making the playoffs is that they have not been healthy all year.  They are finally at full strength heading into the playoffs, which helped them to an 8-3 finish down the stretch where they played their best basketball of the season.  That includes wins over both the Warriors and Spurs in their final six games.  They can play with the Warriors when healthy, and they will prove that in Game 1 tonight.  Golden State is the most overvalued team entering the playoffs, and that is reflected in this ridiculous 12-point spread.  New Orleans is 25-13 ATS as an underdog this season.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games this season.  Take New Orleans.

7* Pacers/Grizzlies ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +1

The Key: The Indiana Pacers need to win and they're in the playoffs.  A loss and a Brooklyn win over Orlando would knock them out.  They have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  The Pacers are 6-0 in their last six games overall with four of their wins coming by 12 points or more.  The Grizzlies looked like a lock for the No. 2 seed a month ago, but injuries and poor play have them in a bad spot and likely to miss a first round series at home.  They have lost six of their last 10 games overall.  Three starters in Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen are all hurt, and at least two of them aren't expected to play tonight.  The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take Indiana.

6* Wizards/Pacers Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana -7

The Key: If Indiana wins out, it will be in the playoffs.  That is motivation enough for the Pacers to crush the Wizards tonight.  Couple that with the fact that Washington is locked into the No. 5 seed with nothing to play for, and it's pretty easy to see how this game is going to play out.  The Pacers have battled their way into this position by going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 19-point win over Charlotte, a 23-point win over Miami, a 16-point win over New York, a 12-point win over Oklahoma City, and a 4-point win at Detroit.  This team is gaining a lot of steam and will be a dangerous No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the postseason, especially with a healthy Paul George back in the lineup.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Wizards are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Take Indiana.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +16

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are finishing out their season pretty solidly.  They have won two of their last three with their only loss coming by a final of 144-143 to the Dallas Mavericks in double-overtime.  They beat the Lakers by 18 and the Kings by 11.  They will be out for revenge from a 92-107 home loss to the Clippers on April 4th just over a week ago.  The Clippers do have more to play for right now, but they're also overvalued because of it.  Each of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, including five by 12 points or fewer.  The Clippers are 1-8 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season.  Denver is 10-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.  Take Denver.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +15.5

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs have a lot to play for as they have the No. 2 seed within their grasp.  There's no question they will show up tonight, but asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover this 15.5-point spread is asking too much.  The Spurs are coming off back-to-back wins over the Rockets, which has given them home-court advantage in the first round if the season were to end today.  It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after those two big wins.  Plus, the Phoenix Suns will be the No. 9 or No. 10 seed in the West for the second consecutive season.  They will want to take their frustration out on the defending champs, which is why they will show up today.  Phoenix is 50-28 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix Sunday.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are fighting for the No. 3 seed in the East and home-court advantage in the first round.  They are currently tied with the Chicago Bulls for that spot.  There's no question that the Raptors are going to show up tonight.  Yes, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Orlando 105-103 on the road yesterday, but this isn't your normal tough back-to-back situation.  It's a short plane ride down to Miami.  I question the Heat's motivation because they are all but eliminated from the playoffs after losing to Chicago at home on Thursday.  They now trail No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn by two games with only three games to play, which is basically an insurmountable comeback.  Kyle Lowry is back healthy and expected to play tonight for the Raptors, indicating that they are All In here down the stretch.  The Heat have played their way out of the playoffs by going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and they aren't about to show up now.  Take Toronto.

7* Spurs/Rockets Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 206

The Key: The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will meet up for the second time in three days.  They combined for 208 points on Wednesday, and I believe their familiarity with one another will lead to a much lower-scoring affair Friday.  After all, these teams haven't scored very many points in recent meetings in Houston.  They have combined for 179, 187, 191 and 202 points their last four meetings in Houston with all four games going UNDER the total.  They have averaged roughly 190 combined points per game in those four contests.  When you compare that to tonight's total set of 206, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston Celtics +6.5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers have absolutely nothing to play for.  They clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their win over Milwaukee on Wednesday.  I don't expect them to show up at all tonight as they take on a Boston Celtics team with everything to play for right now.  The Celtics are clinging on to one of the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference, just one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana, which owns the tiebreaker over both Boston and Brooklyn.  This pressure has only brought out the best in the Celtics, who have won 13 of their last 20 games while going 4-1 in their last five.  They are not only winning, they are dominating as three of their last four wins have come by double-digits.  Lebron James is expected to sit out to rest tonight, leaving the Cavaliers short-handed, and showing that they could care less if they win this game or not.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after giving up 100 points or more in two straight games.  Take Boston.

7* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 191.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, while the Miami Heat are fighting just to stay alive for a playoff spot.  The No. 4 seed Bulls are one game ahead of No. 5 Washington, while the No. 9 Heat are one game behind both No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn.  Both teams will be motivated, which will lead to max effort on defense.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series as the Heat and Bulls have not topped 183 combined points in any of the four games, and that 183-point performance came in overtime.  Not counting overtime, the Bulls & Heat have averaged 173.0 points in those four meetings.  That gives us 18.5 points of value here on the UNDER.  Chicago is 9-1 UNDER as a road dog of 6 points or fewer this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans +5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today, but there is still plenty of work left to do.  The Pelicans are 5-1 in their last six games overall to take a half-game lead on the Thunder for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They just beat the Warriors last night, and I look for them to upset the Grizzlies tonight as well.  Memphis is not playing well, going 2-4 in its last six games with all four losses coming by 9 points or more, and three of those coming at home.  Zach Randolph and Jeff Green are questionable to play tonight, and Tony Allen is out with a hamstring injury.  These injuries are really starting to take their toll on the Grizzlies, who have no business even being favored tonight in their current state.  The Pelicans are 24-11 ATS as an underdog this year.  New Orleans is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 when playing on no rest.  Memphis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 3 or more days of rest.  Take New Orleans.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +7.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for right now.  They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the East, so don't expect them to show up with any consistency the rest of the way.  The Phoenix Suns still have a fighting chance of making the playoffs.  They are three games back of the reeling Oklahoma City Thunder, who have lost three straight and five of six to give the Suns and Pelicans a chance.  Given the mental state of both these teams, there's no question there is value in backing the Suns as 7.5-point road underdogs here.  The Suns are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games when playing on two days' rest.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Jazz/Kings UNDER 190.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been the best defensive team in the second half of the season, period.  The Jazz are 15-8 since center Rudy Gobert became the starter.  They have done it with defense, limiting 17 of their last 20 opponents to 92 or fewer points.  They have held their last four foes to 87, 84, 84, and 89 points.  That's no small feat considering they have played Phoenix, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City during this stretch.  Utah is 23-3 UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Jazz last 24 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Kings last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz +1.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have no reason to show up right now.  They have to be checked out mentally with what has transpired over the past two weeks.  They had a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, but have blown it by going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  They now trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 games for the 8th and final playoff spot with only six games to play and a brutal schedule ahead.  The last straw for them had to be their 106-107 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  I don't even expect them to show up tonight.  The Utah Jazz have been showing up in a big way over the past two months.  They are 17-8 SU & 15-9-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone 3-0 in their last three with a 5-point home win over Oklahoma City, a 20-point win at Minnesota, and a 14-point home win over Denver.  The Jazz have also won three of their last four meetings with Phoenix.  Utah is 17-8-2 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Jazz are 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Phoenix.  Take Utah.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets +13

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, which in turn has forced oddsmakers to jack up the price of backing the Spurs.  This has provided us with ample opportunity to fade them at a great value tonight in taking the Denver Nuggets as double-digit dogs.  The Nuggets are quietly playing some really good basketball down the stretch, going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, yet the betting public still wants nothing to do with them.  These teams have met three times already this year, and while San Antonio is 3-0, all three victories came by 10 points or less.  I believe that will be the case again in the 4th and final meeting.  Denver is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better in the second half of the season this season.  The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take Denver.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: The oddsmakers have really set this total too high tonight between the Pistons and Bulls.  These are two teams that are in no hurry offensively, which is indicated by the fact that Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Detroit ranks 22nd.  It's also a big reason why these teams typically play in lower-scoring games when they meet, especially in comparison to tonight's 197.5-point total.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings.  That stat alone shows how there is plenty of value with this UNDER.  The Bulls are 11-2 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5

They Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are trying to lock up the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are only a couple victories away from doing so.  Now, they enter this game on three days' rest, which is rare for this late in the year.  You can expect their best effort tonight against Lebron's former team in the Miami Heat.  They want revenge from losing two of the first three meetings of the season to the Heat, both coming on the road.  In their lone home meeting, the Cavs won 113-93, and a similar blowout can be expected tonight.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are 2.5 games clear of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.  They aren't safe at all, and they really need to win this game at home against the Dallas Mavericks tonight, so motivation won't be an issue for them.  I question the Mavericks' motivation considering they have lost four of their last five games, and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Dallas is now three games ahead of OKC and three games behind San Antonio for the No. 6 seed, so it pretty much has the No. 7 seed locked up unless the Thunder catch them, which they'll be motivated to do to avoid Golden State in the first round.  Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Mavs are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams that average at least 83 shots per game, or ones that play at a fast pace.  Take this 18-0 ATS Angle backing the Thunder straight to the bank tonight.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks (36-38) still have a lot of work to do.  They have not clinched a playoff spot yet, but more importantly, they don't want to fall to the No. 7 or No. 8 seed.  They are currently No. 6, and if they finish there that means they'll avoid Cleveland and Atlanta in the first round.  They are two games clear of No. 7 Miami.  I look for them to be playing highly motivated basketball at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls, who have all but clinched a first-round series at home.   Milwaukee comes into this game undervalued after losing eight of its last 10, while Chicago is overvalued after winning five of its last six.  Well, the Bucks have played a brutal schedule here of late as each of their last 10 games have come against playoff contenders, including the last two against Golden State and Atlanta.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Bulls are 14-27 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last three years.  The Bulls are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Spurs/Heat NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on San Antonio -7

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs still have their sights set on earning home-court advantage at least for the first round of the playoffs.  They are only 1.5 games out of that coveted 4th spot, and they could move all the way up to No. 2 if things break right down the stretch.  They are certainly playing their best basketball of the season right now with what's at stake.  The Spurs are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Their last three wins have come by 39, 18 and 14 points over three playoff teams in OKC, Dallas and Memphis, respectively.  Now, they take a big step down in competition against the Miami Heat tonight.  The Heat have a long list of injuries and are short-handed right now.  Chris Bosh was already out, but Hassan Whiteside, Luol Deng, Michael Beasley, Chris Andersen and Shabazz Napier are all questionable to play tonight.  The Spurs are 47-22-1 ATS in their last 70 vs. NBA Southeast.  The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Southwest.  Miami is 27-56-4 ATS in its last 87 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers this season, winning by 13.9 points per game in this spot.  Take San Antonio.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and home-court advantage.  They literally have nothing to play for the rest of the way as the Golden State Warriors are running away with home-court advantage throughout in the West, and they are five games clear of Atlanta with nine games to play.  The Milwaukee Bucks (36-37) have plenty to play for.  They want to at least get the No. 6 seed in the East, which would have them avoiding Cleveland in the first round.  They are only two games clear of Miami for the No. 6 seed, so there's still a lot of work to do.  The Hawks have lost four of their last six and appear to just be coasting to the finish line.  Milwaukee is 24-12 ATS in all road games this season.  The Bucks are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers -1.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are stuck in log jam in the Eastern Conference.  There are five teams from No. 7 through No. 11 in the East who are within two games of one another.  The Pacers are currently that No. 11 team, so they are really looking at every game from here on out as a must-win.  They come into this game undervalued due to having lost seven of their last eight games overall, but they had won seven straight prior to this streak, which has mostly come against elite competition.  Dallas isn't playing that well itself right now, having lost three of four while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Pacers will be fresh coming into this game considering they've had two days off since last losing to the Bucks on Thursday.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive unders this season.  The Mavs are 0-9 ATS in road games against up-tempo teams that average at least 83 shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games overall.  Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the Pacers straight to the bank tonight.  Take Indiana.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Key: Both the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets will be playing the second of a back-to-back Saturday.  The difference is that the Hawks are the deeper team, and also that the Hornets went to overtime last night against Washington.  This will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Hornets, while it will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Hawks.  Atlanta is 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 road games.  The Hawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Atlanta is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Charlotte is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.  The Hawks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Charlotte.  Take Atlanta.

6* Blazers/Suns NBA Friday Night 'Bailout' on Phoenix +1

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have won four of their last five games overall to pull within three games of Oklahoma City for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.  They are obviously in must-win mode from here on out, otherwise they'll fall just short of making the playoffs for a second straight year.  Portland is not playing well coming in and should not be favored in this game.  It has lost five of its last six games overall.  It is just 17-18 on the road this season as well.  The Suns have had the Blazers' number in winning seven of the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series.  The Suns are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 9-1 ATS versus excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or better over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Phoenix is 20-8-2 ATS in the last 30 home meetings.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers have quietly been a very profitable bet at the pay window here of late.  They have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They went on the road last time out and beat Denver handily 99-85.  They have now won three of their last five games outright, which includes a 94-83 home win over Detroit and a 97-81 home victory over New York.  The Clippers come into this game getting too much respect for the books due to their five-game winning streak, which included a 31-point win at New York last time out.  The 76ers are 11-1 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS in home games revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more this season.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics UNDER 203

The Key: Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are fighting to make the playoffs right now.  Boston is currently the No. 8 team in the East, just one-half game ahead of Charlotte.  It has three teams within 1.5 games of it for the 8th spot.  Miami is currently the 7th team in the East, just one game ahead of Boston.  It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  Miami and Boston have combined for 197 or fewer points in five straight meetings, averaging 181.6 combined points per game in those five contest.  The total has been set at 203 tonight, meaning that we're receiving roughly 21 points of value on the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Nets/Hornets UNDER 197.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are both barely on the outside looking in when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Hornets trail the Celtics by a half-game for the No. 8 seed, while the Nets are 1.5 games back.  It's safe to say that both of these teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  That's why I like the UNDER in this game tonight.  I believe there is value here because the last four meetings have all seen 201 or more combined points.  Charlotte is shooting just 39.2 percent while averaging 88.8 points in its last five games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 UNDER in its last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-1 UNDER in its last five games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Key: This is the ultimate spot to fade the Golden State Warriors.  They have the No. 1 seed in the West pretty much wrapped up at 57-13 on the season, so I question their motivation coming into this one, especially with how tired they are right now.  The Warriors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This will also be their 8th game in the past 12 days.  This team is simply running on fumes right now.  Portland, meanwhile, comes in on two days' rest so it will be fresh and ready to go.  It will also be motivated to put an end to a four-game losing streak, all of which have come on the road.  The Blazers are 28-6 at home this season.  The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Take Portland.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets -4

The Key: The Booklyn Nets (29-39) trail the Boston Celtics (30-39) by a half-game and the Charlotte Hornets by a full game for the No. 8 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Obviously, the Nets are going to be motivated, and that motivation here of late has led to some promising results.  Indeed, the Nets have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Cleveland, which is arguably the best team in the NBA right now.  The Celtics have dropped three straight following their 97-105 home loss to Detroit yesterday.  Now, the Celtics will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days, which is a very tough spot.  The Nets check in on one days' rest following their 12-point win at Indiana on Saturday.  The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix Suns +4

The Key: The Phoenix Suns still find themselves right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.  They trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by just 2.5 games for the 8th and final spot.  They have won three straight coming in with a 13-point home win over New York, a 2-point home win over New Orleans, and a 15-point road win at Houston.  They are playing great right now, which is why they should not be home underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  Dallas is 3-14 ATS off a combined score of 205 or more points this season.  Phoenix is 25-11 ATS off a road win over the last two years.  The Mavs are 0-7 ATS in road games against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Suns are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix.

6* Jazz/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on UNDER 194.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been UNDER machines ever since trading Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City and inserting the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  They are 14-2 UNDER in their last 16 games overall despite having each of their last 15 totals set at 192.5 points or lower.  So, this 194.5-point total tonight between the Jazz and the Warriors is the highest a total has been set in a Utah game since February 11th.  There is clearly some value here with this UNDER today folks, especially with the Warriors missing one of their best players in Klay Thompson.  The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are pretty much in must-win mode right now at 27-39 on the season.  They trail the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference by 2.5 games, but there's a pack of teams right around there that could get in.  They will need a big finish, and it starts tonight with a home game against Milwaukee.  The Nets will also be motivated after losing the first two meetings with the Bucks this season with one in overtime and one by 6 points.  Milwaukee is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  The Bucks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189

The Key: When you look at the head-to-head history of this series between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers, it's easy to see that the oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls and Pacers have combined for 182, 182, 189, 166, 170, 204, 187, 171 and 189 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  As you can see, eight of those nine meetings saw 189 or fewer combined points.  I'll take this 8-1 (89%) trend backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER 203

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight in a matchup between Orlando and Houston.  These teams played in an absolute shootout in their first meeting of the year, a 120-113 home victory for the Magic on January 14th.  I look for this game to play out similarly.  Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 99.2 possessions per game as it prefers to run teams to death.  Orlando has given up 100-plus points in 13 of its last 17 games overall.  The Magic are 15-3 OVER off a combined score of 225 or more points over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 179.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league right now.  They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall.  The reason for their success is defense.  They have allowed 91 or less points in eight straight coming in.  They have also given up 91 or fewer in 11 of their last 12.  Charlotte is not a very good offensive team, but it does get after it defensively.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in 7 of its last 11 games.  The Hornets are 7-0 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 UNDER in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take this 23-0 angle backing the under straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Wizards -2

The Key: The Washington Wizards have turned things around here of late.  They have won three straight games in blowout fashion over Charlotte by 26, Memphis by 20 and Sacramento by 16.  They should have an excellent chance to continuing this recent roll due to their current status physically; this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Portland is playing well having won eight of its last nine, but it is in a difficult spot here tonight.  It is playing its 3rd game in 4 days and the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The home team is 9-3 SU in the last 12 meeting.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves are way undervalued right now due to their 14-50 record on the season.  They have also failed to cover the spread in three straight tough road games at LA Clippers, Phoenix and Oklahoma City.  They lost all three of those games by 14 points or less.  I like backing them now off three straight ATS non-covers as this number has been inflated to 12.5.  San Antonio is getting too much love from the books due to covering five of its last seven ATS.  Minnesota is 27-12 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.  San Antonio is 2-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Spurs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Sacramento Kings +9

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* Pistons/Blazers NBA "BAILOUT" on Portland -8.5

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

7* Rockets/Blazers Western Conference "BAILOUT" on Portland -2.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are back to having one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have gone 26-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game.  Rarely will we get the chance to back them as only 2.5-point favorites.  They have won five of their last six games overall, which includes victories over San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers and Dallas.  The home team has won four of the past five meetings between these teams.  Take Portland.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Mavericks OVER 200

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have gone 11-0 to the UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Obviously, the books are now forced to set this total lower than it should be, and therefore there's some value in backing the OVER tonight.  The Cavaliers are also coming off a low-scoring affair against the Suns last time out, which only adds to the value.  Dallas and Cleveland are tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 107.4 points per 100  possessions.  Dallas has averaged 104.4 points on the season, while Cleveland has averaged 102.5, which would be higher if not for all the injuries earlier in the season.  Dallas is 10-1 OVER as a home underdog over the last two years.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

The Key: I look for the Milwaukee Bucks to continue their dominant ways at home.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 home games overall.  The only reason they are just a 1.5-point favorite here is because they have lost four of their last five coming in, but all four of those losses were on the road.  The Pelicans come in getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers due to winning seven of their last nine, but most of those wins came against a weak schedule.  I'll back the home team laying the small number.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nets UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have given up 87 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are allowing 81.4 points in their last five contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last eight games overall.  As good as they are defensively, they are equally terrible on offense.  Utah has scored 97 or fewer points in eight of its last nine contests.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +11

The Key: The Cavaliers are on the second of a back-to--back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This is a great situation to fade them, especially with playing the Hawks last night, who are their biggest defenders in the East.  Take the Suns.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Indiana Pacers -6

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a big win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.  The Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go.  They are fighting to make the Eastern Conference Playoffs and will be highly motivated for a win as a result.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS off four straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  Take Indiana.

6* Thunder/Bulls TNT "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: The Bulls and Thunder are both battling huge injuries right now.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and playing with a banged up Russell Westbrook.  The Bulls are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  This has been a low-scoring series in the past, and it will continue in 2014-15 due to these injuries.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 189 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  They have averaged 184.2 combined points per game in these six contests.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Thunder's last 10 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers UNDER 190

The Key: The New York Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  They also rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  That's not a great combo for scoring points, but it's an excellent one for backing UNDERS.  The Pacers do not look to push the tempo, either, ranking 20th in pace at 95.6 possessions per game.  The Pacers also rank just 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  The last two meetings between these teams have been low scoring with 185 and 178 combined points.  I look for this one to be played at a snail's pace and to easily stay under the 190-point total.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Knicks last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in home games after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -1

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are without three key players right now.  They are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  They are also without key role player Taj Gibson (10.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg).  They have struggled here of late going 1-2 in their last three games, which includes a pair of double-digit home losses to Charlotte and the LA Clippers.  Washington just recently got back Bradley Beal from an 8-game absence, and the Wizards promptly put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 99-95 victory over the Pistons.  Now at full strength, the Wizards will be a tough out going forward.  They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 visits to Chicago.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings as well.  Take Washington.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They used a lot of energy coming back from 26 points down to beat Boston yesterday.  The Nets come into this game on a days' rest after beating the Mavericks by 10 on the road Saturday.  They will be the fresher team in this one.  The Warriors will be playing their 10th road game in an 11-game stretch and could not be more tired.  They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their first nine road games during this stretch.  The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and playing some of their best ball of the season.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against a team that wins 60% or more of its games.  Take the Nets.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +4

The Key: Despite over 70% of the betting public being on the Cavaliers tonight, this line has actually dropped from -5 to -3.5 as of this writing.  The smart money is clearly on the Pacers in this one.  The Cavaliers are overvalued here due to having won 18 of their last 20.  Well, they couldn't be in a worse spot tonight.  They are primed for a letdown following their big win over the Warriors last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pacers come in fully rested having last played on Tuesday.  Indiana is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall, which includes home wins over Cleveland and Golden State.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Take Indiana.

7* Warriors/Cavaliers TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3.5

The Key: The Cavaliers are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall.  They have won all 17 games by at least 5 points, and 11 of those by double-digits.  To say they are rolling would be a massive understatement.  The Warriors have continued their winning ways as well, but they have been overvalued here of late and continue to be tonight.  Golden State is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It has gone on the road and lost to Atlanta and Indiana, while also barely beating Philadelphia by 5 and Minnesota by 3 during this stretch.  The Cavs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes, proving that they are arguably the best team in the NBA against what is the best conference.  Cleveland is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns -6

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have absolutely quit on head coach Brian Shaw.  They are 2-16 in their last 18 games overall, and it has been even worse since the All-Star Break.  They have lost all three games since the break with an 8-point loss at Milwaukee, a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City, and a 28-point home loss to Brooklyn while looking lifeless on the court.  Phoenix is struggling as well, losing five straight and eight of nine, but it has been competitive.  The Suns have lost four of their last five games by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games more than anything.  The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix.

7* Pacers/Thunder Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Key: The Thunder are without Kevin Durant right now, but I believe the oddsmakers are over-adjusting for it.  They have been without Durant the past two games and haven't missed a beat.  They won 110-103 at Charlotte as 4.5-point favorites and 119-94 at home against Denver as 8.5-point favorites.  They have actually won four in a row and seven of their last nine without Durant.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has won 11 of 12 at home, and it is 8-1 SU in its last nine home meetings with Indiana.  The Pacers are in a letdown spot here off their huge win over the Warriors on Sunday.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -7.5

The Key: This is a very tough situation for the Boston Celtics.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have lost road games to Sacramento (101-109) and the Lakers (111-118) in their first two games back from the All-Star Break.  They even went to overtime against the Lakers last night, which will only add to their fatigue.  Phoenix comes in hungry for a victory after back-to-back heartbreaking losses at Minnesota (109-111) and at Chicago (107-112) coming out of the break.  The Suns are still right in the thick of the Western Conference No. 8 seed race, so they are motivated right now.  The Suns are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Celtics.  Boston is 1-10 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  Phoenix is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division foes this season.  Take this combined 20-1 ATS angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The Key: These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks rank 7th.  That's the reason both teams have improved so dramatically over last year.  The Bucks are missing a point guard after trading Brandon Knight to Phoenix, and having his replacement, Michael Carter-Williams, currently injured.  These teams have squared off twice this season, and both times it resulted in defensive battles.  They combined for 184 points in their first meeting and 175 in their second.  I look for this game to finish in a similar range.  Betting the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 points who are playing their 2nd game in 5 days on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Key: These teams have met up once already this season in a game that saw 193 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or less in six of their last eight meetings.  I expect that this contest will fit that criteria considering the Pistons are without a point guard right now.  They traded D.J. Augustin to Oklahoma City, and while they did get Reggie Jackson back in return, he's not expected to play tonight.  The Bulls have allowed 88.3 points per game in their last four games, and they are 5-1 UNDER in their last six.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 or more points in their last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bulls last 17 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant at home this season, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  They are just 10-16 away from home where they are getting outscored by 3.6 points per game.  They do have Anthony Davis back healthy, but Jrue Holiday remains out with an injury.  The Magic are fully healthy as arguably their best player in Tobias Harris is expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It continues to be undervalued here as 5.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on home underdogs like the Magic after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 80-41 (66.1%) ATS since 1996.  Take Orlando.

7* Mavericks/Thunder TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Key: The Thunder were red hot going into the All-Star Break, and I look for them to come out of it the same way.  They have won five of their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits.  This team is on a mission as it is now just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for the final playoff spot in the West.  Oklahoma City has won 11 of its last 14 meetings with Dallas.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or better.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 198

The Key: Four of the last eight meetings between Memphis and Oklahoma City have gone to overtime.  I believe that has helped provide us with excellent line value here to back the UNDER in this battle between two of the best teams in the West tonight.  If you don't count overtime, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated when looking at recent meetings.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for 186, 198, 170, 160, 180, 188, 229, 180 and 159 points in their last nine meetings.  As you can see, only once in those nine meetings have they surpassed 198 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 183.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  I believe we are getting 15 points of value here with this 198-point total as a result.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: There is some serious value with this UNDER 197.5-point total in this game between Chicago and Sacramento.  The Kings are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  They have scored just 89.7 points in their last six contests.  The Bulls are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games overall.  They have allowed 92.3 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  They have averaged a combined 180.3 points per game in those three meetings.  Add these three trends up and that's a 13-0 angle backing the UNDER in this game tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando Magic +9

The Key: The Magic are playing some great basketball here of late as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at Oklahoma City by 7 as 10.5-point dogs, at San Antonio by 7 as 13.5-point dogs, at home against Chicago by 1 as 6-point dogs, and beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point home favorites.  They want revenge on the Wizards after losing their first three meetings this season by 7, 5, and 2 points.  They should have a great chance to take this one right down to the wire considering how poorly Washington is playing of late.  It has lost five of its last six games overall, and it is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games.  The Magic are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Orlando.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks may have the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, but that's the reason they are overavlued at this point in the season, especially tonight as only 2-point road underdogs to the Grizzlies.  This is the perfect spot to fade the Hawks, who are set up to have a letdown following their big win over the Warriors on Friday.  The Grizzlies continue to get no respect.  They have won 12 of their last 14 games overall and are 21-5 at home this season.  They have held their last nine opponents to an average of 86.3 points per game.  Their defense is the reason they'll prevail tonight.  Take the Grizzlies.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 195.5

The Key: The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this year at 27-23 is the way they play at the defensive end.  In fact, they rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Bucks' last 21 games overall, including 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  They are coming off a high-scoring loss to the Houston Rockets last night, which is the reason I believe the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Boston Celtics' last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams in Milwaukee dating back to 2011.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic -4

The Key: The Orlando Magic are favored for good reason here.  They have lost 10 straight coming in, but their opponents in the Lakers have lost 11 of their last 12.  This is bad versus worse here tonight, and I'll side with the bad.  That's because the Magic have showed me a lot in their last two games.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, and by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs.  I fully expect them to put an end to their losing streak tonight.  After all, the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Lakers are 0-8 in their last eight road games will all eight losses coming by 4 points or more.  Seven of those eight losses have come by 8 points or more as well.  Take Orlando.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +3

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks expended a lot of energy last night trying to keep up with the Golden State Warriors in a 114-128 shootout.  Not only will they be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.  I don't expect them to have a lot left to give against the Sacramento Kings tonight, especially since they're short-handed playing without Rajon Rondo.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Take the Kings.