12-06-15 |
Long Beach State +11 v. UCLA |
|
76-83 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* Long Beach/UCLA CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +11
This is strictly a spot play. I am going to fade the UCLA Bruins because their are coming off their biggest win in the Steve Alford era over No. 1 Kentucky on Thursday. They beat the Wildcats 87-77 at home. It's only human nature for a team to come out flat after such a big win, and that's what I expect from these Bruins tonight.
Yes, I realize this is also a tough spot for Long Beach State, which will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days. But I've seen enough from this team to know that it is fully capable of staying within 11 points of the Bruins, and possibly pulling off the upset.
In fact, Long Beach State has managed to go 5-4 against a brutal schedule. It has beaten the likes of BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State and New Mexico State, which are four quality teams. Its four losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State (twice) by 5 and 6 points, and San Diego State (by 4). No team in the country has faced a tougher schedule than LBS, yet they've only lost one game by more than 6 points this season.
Plays on neutral court teams as an underdog (LONG BEACH ST) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. LBS beat Colorado State 83-77 as 8-point road dogs and New Mexico State 67-53 as 1-point home favorites. Look for the solid play to continue tonight in a potential upset bid of the Bruins. Roll with Long Beach State Sunday.
|
12-05-15 |
Ole Miss v. Massachusetts -1.5 |
|
74-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5
I believe UMass (5-1) is a much better team than Ole Miss (5-2) and should be a heavier favorite today. This is essentially a home game for the Minutemen to boot, at will be played at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, MA.
UMass beat a very good Clemson team 82-65 as 7.5-point underdogs to really open my eyes. It is coming off a 30-point win over Boson last time out. But the numbers tell the story for me. UMass is averaging 83.3 points against teams that only allow 73.4 points, and it is allowing 72.5 points against teams that average 76.5. That's the sign of a very good team.
Ole Miss already has a 6-point loss to George Mason and a 12-point loss to Seton Hall, both on neutral courts, which are two average teams that aren't as good as UMass. Ole Miss is only a slightly better-than-average team when you look at the numbers. It is putting up 72.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.6, and allowing 66.3 points per game against teams that score 69.7 on average.
The Minutemen have three absolute studs that carry them every game. Jabarie Hinds (19.7 ppg, 5.5 apg), Trey Davis (18.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Donte Clark (16.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) are the best trio in the Atlantic 10 in my book. All three are deadly from 3-point range. Hinds shoots 48.6%, Davis 47.4% and Clark 38.9%. It's no wonder this team is putting up over 83 points per game this year.
UMass is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games. The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Rebels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. Take UMass Saturday.
|
12-05-15 |
Nevada +10.5 v. Oregon State |
|
62-66 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nevada +10.5
Nevada is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country. It returned four starters from last year and is off to a 5-2 start this season. Its two losses have come to Hawaii and CS-Fullerton both on the road by a combined 10 points. The Wolf Pack have five players scoring in double figures, and seven players averaging at least 8.6 points, so they play team basketball.
The numbers show to me that Nevada can hang with this Oregon State outfit. Nevada is averaging 80.9 points per game against teams that allow 75.6, and it is giving up 68.7 points per game against teams that score 74.9 on average. Those are some impressive numbers to say the least.
Oregon State is too reliant on one player for my liking. Gary Payton II is a great player, but he is asked to do too much for this team. The Bears are scoring 75.2 points per game against teams that allow 73, and they are allowing 64.3 against teams that average 69.8. Solid numbers, but not quite as good as what Nevada has done. If anything, you could argue that Nevada is the better team, yet it is catching double-digit points.
The Beavers are 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Beavers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oregon State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games overall. Roll with Nevada Saturday.
|
12-04-15 |
Akron v. Marshall +8 |
|
75-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +8
Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni. It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play. Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.
The Herd returned four starters from last year. That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg LY) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system. Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg). Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.
D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason. He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year. He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina. He's starting to really get his pieces in place.
It hasn't been the best start for the Herd, who are 0-4 thanks to a brutal schedule. They have played three road games already and were an underdog of 13.5, 11.5 and 7.5 points in those games. They were also a 3-point home underdog to James Madison. They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, which has them undervalued coming into this game. The Herd will be highly motivated to get their first win of the season, and I believe they have a great chance to get it against Akron.
Akron is off to a 5-2 start this season, which includes a win over Arkansas. But Akron only beat Coppin State 77-71 at home last time out, which was on Wednesday night. That means Akron has only had one day in between games to get ready for Marshall, and that's not enough time to prepare for D'Antoni's fast-paced system. That scheduling disadvantage is a great a reason as any to fade the Zips tonight.
Marshall played Akron extremely tough in its last two meetings. It lost 70-63 on the road last season as 12.5-point underdogs, and 58-59 on the road two seasons ago as 11.5-point dogs. So, the Herd will also be out for revenge from those two losses by a combined eight points to the Zips. I think they'll have a great chance to get it considering they will be at home this time around.
Plays on any team (MARSHALL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (less than 63 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more two straight games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Akron is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, actually losing in this spot by an average of 4.3 points per game. Take Marshall Friday.
|
12-03-15 |
USC -1 v. UC-Santa Barbara |
|
75-63 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1
The USC Trojans are a team I have my eye on this season. They returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the Pac-12. They didn't disappoint in their first five games, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, which included an upset victory over Wichita State.
But they have gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games. They lost to one of the best teams in the country in Xavier by 10, and followed that up with a 10-point loss to Monmouth, which is one of the best small-conference teams in the land. They certainly suffered a hangover from that Xavier loss against Monmouth, and they had already beaten Monmouth by 11 at home earlier this season, so they weren't motivated to face them again. Now the Trojans will be hungry to snap this 2-game skid tonight.
I have not been impressed with UC-Santa Barbara during its 2-3 start. Its two wins have come against Nebraska-Omaha and San Francisco by a combined 8 points. The three losses have come against fellow Pac-12 teams in California (by 18), Oregon State (by 12) and Arizona State (by 2). I believe USC is right on par with Oregon State and better than Arizona State.
The Trojans are scoring 84.6 points per game and shooting 46.4% against teams that only allow 72 points per game and shoot 42.2%. Their defense has also been vastly improved, giving up 37.8% shooting against teams that average 41.4% shooting.
USC is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last three seasons. The Trojans are 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons. USC is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in. Roll with USC Thursday.
|
12-02-15 |
BYU +8.5 v. Utah |
Top |
75-83 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU +8.5
BYU is a team I have my eye on after it went 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament. That's because it returned three starters, led by Kyle Collinsworth (13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.0 apg), who had an NCAA-record six triple-doubles last year.
The Cougars are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Long Beach State. Collinsworth (15.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) is among five players scoring in double figures. Nick Emery (15.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) is a former Utah Mr. Basketball. Kyle Davis (12.2 ppg, 12.0 rpg) is a beast on the boards, Chase Fischer (11.4 ppg) is a sharpshooper, and Corbin Kaufusi (10.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg) does the dirty work.
Utah hasn't impressed me at all this season and should not be laying 8.5 points here. Yes, it is off to a 5-1 start, but four of those victories have come by 11 points or less. The Utes only beat Southern Utah by 11 as 24.5-point home favorites, San Diego State by 5 as 5-point home favorites, Texas Tech by 10 as 8.5-point favorites, and Temple by 6 as 6.5-point favorites. They also lost to the best team they've played in Miami by a final of 66-90, which is a game that shows me they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago.
Utah's strength is its big men, but the Cougars clearly have the answer in the post. They are outrebounding their opponents 51-35 this season, while the Utes are only outrebounding foes 39-33. The Cougars are outscoring foes by 18.4 points per game this season, while the Utes are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game. The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Roll with BYU Wednesday.
|
12-02-15 |
Indiana +10.5 v. Duke |
|
74-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* Indiana/Duke ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Indiana +10.5
The Indiana Hoosiers have suffered two losses already, which has them undervalued here. Their two losses came to Wake Forest and UNLV by a combined seven points as they simply couldn't get it done down the stretch. But this is still one of the best teams in the country, and the Hoosiers have no business being double-digit underdogs to Duke here.
Indiana returned four starters from last year and added in big man Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who is shooting 70.2 percent from the floor and also gives them a defensive presence in the pain that they didn't have last year. James Blackmon (17.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Yogi Ferrell (156.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) give the Hoosiers one of the best guard tandems in the country. Troy Williams (11.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) does a little bit of everything.
Duke only returned one starter this year, and it is still a work in progress. The Blue Devils lost their toughest game 63-74 to Kentucky. They also only beat VCU by 8 as 10-point favorites and Georgetown by 2 as 6-point favorites. But they are coming off two straight covers against Yale and Utah State, which I believe has them overvalued here as 10-point favorites.
Indiana can score with anyone. It is putting up 88.3 points per game on 54.7% shooting this season. Its defense is improved as well as it is allowing 69.6 points per game against opponents that average 74.1 points per game, so this is finally an above-average defensive squad. Duke gives up 70.1 points per game against opponents that average 73.8, so the Blue Devils are only slightly above average on that end as well.
The Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons. They haven't covered in three of their last four, which I believe has provided some extra value here. Bet Indiana Wednesday.
|
12-02-15 |
Texas Southern v. Mississippi State -12 |
|
73-86 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -12
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team I have my eye on this season. They returned four starters from last year for first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08. They also added in one of the top freshmen in the country in Malik Newman.
While Mississippi State is just 3-3 this season, it has not disappointed against the spread, going 4-1 ATS in its five lined games. It has covered three straight coming in, which includes back-to-back blowout wins over Missouri State by 14 as 6-point favorites and Tennessee-Martin by 25 as 10.5-point favorites.
All four returning starters are playing a big role already in Gavin Ware (20.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg), I.J. Ready (12.8 ppg, 5.5 apg), Craig Sword (11.8 ppg) and Travis Daniels (8.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg). Newman (11.4 ppg) is still trying to find his footing, but it won't be long before he becomes one of the better players in the country.
Texas Southern is just 1-5 this season with its only win coming at home against Texas-San Antonio. It is 0-5 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 18.0 points per game. Texas Southern lost by 29 at New Mexico, by 23 at Creighton, by 20 at Clemson and by 12 at Washington State. I believe Mississippi State is as good or better as all four of those teams that Texas Southern lost by 12 points or more to on the road.
The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons. Plays on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Mississippi State Wednesday.
|
12-01-15 |
Old Dominion v. William & Mary -3.5 |
|
48-55 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on William & Mary -3.5
Coach Tony Shaver has built William & Mary into a program that competes at the upper echelon of the Colonial Athletic Association every year. This is a team that went 20-13 last year and tied for first atop the conference with a 12-6 CAA mark.
Shaver returns four starters from that team in Omar Prewitt (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg LY), Terry Tarpey (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg), Daniel Dixon (11.1 ppg) and Sean Sheldon (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg). Those four have been the leading scorers for this team during a 4-2 start in 2015-16. Prewitt (17.3. ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Sixon (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been sensational, while Tarpey (10.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Sheldon (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are having fine seasons as well.
William & Mary's two losses this season have come to Dayton and Howard, both on the road, by a combined 5 points. The 66-69 loss at Dayton as 9.5-point road dogs was especially impressive. But it wasn't as impressive as William & Mary's 85-68 upset win at NC State as 12.5-point underdogs. That effort signified that the Tribe would be a tough team to deal with this season.
Old Dominion is 3-0 at home this year with wins against overmatched opponents like Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State. But it is 0-3 on the road/neutral site games with a blowout loss to Purdue 39-61, a loss to St. Joe's (64-66), and a loss to VCU (67-76). The Monarchs are only averaging 56.7 points on 34.5% shooting on the road. The Tribe are averaging 85.5 points on 46.8% shooting at home this year, and 78.2 points on 48.3% shooting in all games, including 41.3% from 3-point range.
William & Mary is 16-4 ATS vs teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years. The Monarchs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tribe are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons. The Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The home team won both meetings between these teams last year. The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Take William & Mary Tuesday.
|
11-30-15 |
Illinois State +20.5 v. Kentucky |
|
63-75 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +20
Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. A 3-4 start doesn't do this team justice, but the Redbirds are now undervalued as a result. This start can be attributed to a brutal schedule.
The Redbirds lost on the road to San Diego State 60-71 in the opener. They held a 2-point lead over No. 1 Maryland with just six minutes to go before giving way in a 66-77 loss. Those two efforts right there show that the Redbirds can play with the best teams in the country.
Kentucky is clearly overvalued right now due to its No. 1 national ranking. The Wildcats are 6-0, but they are just 2-4 ATS. Five of their six wins have come by 21 points or less, and the lone exception was a 30-point home win over New Jersey Tech. They beat Albany at home by 13, Wright State at home by 15, Boson at home by 20, and South Florida on a neutral court by 21. Illinois State is better than all four of those teams.
"We're playing a good team. Illinois State. I watched their Maryland game. They had Maryland beat. They've got a quick guard, (Paris) Lee. I'm not sure what we'll be able to do with him. They've got a kid, (DeVaughn Akoon-) Purcell, that's scoring 16, 17 a game." Kentucky head coach John Calipari said. "Will be a tough matchup for us depending on how we play. They've got some veteran guys."
Kentucky is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more. The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Take Illinois State Monday.
|
11-29-15 |
Dayton v. Xavier -2 |
|
61-90 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -2
The Xavier Musketeers are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over the Dayton Flyers Sunday in the Championship Game of this Advocare Invitational Tournament. I'll gladly back them as small favorites here when they should be laying more points.
Both teams are undefeated this season, but that's about where the similarities stop. I've been much more impressed with Xavier's 6-0 start than Dayton's 5-0 effort. The Flyers are very fortunate to be 5-0 as their last three wins have come by 3, 5 and 3 points against William & Mary, Iowa and Monmouth.
Xavier has been much more dominant, going 6-0 while winning all 6 games by 9 points or more. That includes a 12-point home win over Missouri, a 16-point road win at Michigan, a 19-point win over Alabama on a neutral court, and a 10-point win over USC on a neutral court.
Dayton is without its top two players from last year. Jordan Sibert (16.1 ppg) graduated, while Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg) has been suspended indefinitely. This was an NCAA Tournament team last year, but without those two, I have my doubts that the Flyers can get back to the big dance.
Xavier is 9-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last three years. Roll with Xavier Sunday.
|
11-28-15 |
Illinois v. Iowa State -8.5 |
|
73-84 |
Win
|
102 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country. They are currently ranked No. 4 after their 4-0 start that has seen them dominate the competition. First-year head coach Steve Prohm stepped into a great situation with four returning starters, and everyone has bought in as he has been playing pretty much the same system that Fred Hoiberg did before him, only he emphasizes defense more.
The Cyclones are hitting on all cylinders offensively. They are scoring 89.0 points per game on 53.0% shooting and 43.5% from 3-point range. They average 20 assists per game as they simply share the ball as well as anyone in the country. Defensively, they only give up 66.5 points per game on 37.8% shooting, allowing just 11 assists per game to compare.
Illinois is clearly one of the worst teams in the Big Ten with a 3-3 start this season. It has lost to North Florida (81-93) and Chattanooga (77-81) at home, and needed a buzzer-beater to beat Chicago State 82-79 at home. That gives these teams a couple common opponents.
Iowa State beat Chicago State 106-64 at home, or by 42 points. Iowa State also beat Chattanooga 83-63 at home, or by 20 points. Given those results compared to Illinois, it's easy to see why I like Iowa State to cover this generous 8.5-point spread. The Cyclones continued to play well yesterday in a 99-77 win over VA Tech.
The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. They continue to roll against the overmatched Fighting Illini today. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|
11-27-15 |
Arkansas State +23.5 v. Baylor |
|
72-94 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +23.5
I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year. In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back. Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (14.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.
Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg LY) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg LY) are also two studs who are back. But two guys who have been really playing well that aren't returning starters are Devin Carter (14.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Donte Thomas (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.4 apg).
Arkansas State and Baylor have a couple common opponents that really make me think the Red Wolves can easily stay within 23.5 of the Bears today. They are Jackson State and Oregon. Arkansas State beat Jackson State by 9 at home and lost to Oregon by 23 on the road. Baylor beat Jackson State by 17 at home and lost to Oregon by 7 on the road.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game, on Friday nights are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1997. The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet Arkansas State Friday.
|
11-25-15 |
Rhode Island v. Maryland -5.5 |
Top |
63-86 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -5.5
You'll be hard-pressed to get the Maryland Terrapins at a better value than we're getting them tonight. They are only 5.5-point favorites over the Rhode Island Rams in this Championship Game of the Cancun Challenge.
The Terrapins are getting a lot of hype because they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country. But they haven't lived up to that hype in terms of the spread. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover as 9-point favorites against Georgetown, as 19.5-point favorites against Ride and as 13-point favorites against Illinois State. I believe they are finally undervalued now as a result.
Still, they have managed to start 4-0, and now they are the smallest favorites (-5.5) they have been all season. The scary part is they aren't shooting the ball well, yet they have a plethora of great shooters. They are only making 30.1 percent of their 3-point shots, down from 37.6 a year ago. It's only a matter of time before they start falling with the talent this team possesses.
Rhode Island was going to be an NCAA Tournament team in my opinion before losing E.C. Matthews to a torn ACL suffered in practice last week. Matthews averaged 16.9 points per game last season, leaving a gaping hole in the Rams' offensive plans going forward. They were able to get by TCU 66-60 yesterday, but they aren't going to be as fortunate against one of the best teams in the country a night later.
Rhode Island has lost 28 of its last 29 games against ranked opponents. The Rams' last win over a top-5 team was an 80-75 victory over No. 2 Kansas in the second round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.
The Terrapins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Rhode Island is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take Maryland Wednesday.
|
11-25-15 |
Arkansas State +21.5 v. Oregon |
|
68-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +21.5
The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued here due to their 4-0 start to the season. They have survived a couple scares from Baylor (74-67) and Valparaiso (73-67) while also beating Jackson State (80-52) and Savannah State (77-59).
Arkansas State is 2-2 with home wins over Lyon (81-37) and Jackson State (78-69), as well as road losses to SIU-Edwardsville (70-79) and Savannah State (75-76). That gives these teams two common opponents, and I believe the results in those two games suggest that the Red Wolves can stay within 21.5 points of the Ducks here.
I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year. In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back. Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (15.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already. Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg) are also two studs who are back.
The Red Wolves are averaging 76.0 points per game this season, which is great for a team not known for its offense. The Red Wolves pride themselves on defense, and that has been the case this year as they are only allowing opponents to shoot 34.8% from the field.
Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (ARKANSAS ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1997. The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Roll with Arkansas State Wednesday.
|
11-24-15 |
Murray State v. Pepperdine -3.5 |
|
59-55 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pepperdine -3.5
I believe Pepperdine to be one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They went 18-14 last year overall and 10-8 in WCC play. They pulled off back-to-back upsets over Saint Mary's and BYU last February. The good news this year? All five starters return.
Back are Jeremy Major (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg LY), Stacy Davis (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg), Atif Russell (5.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg), SHawn Olden (9.2 ppg) and Jett Raines (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg). The Waves are just 2-2 to start this season, but the schedule has been tough so it's understandable.
Their only two losses came on the road as underdogs to Fresno State (66-69) and UCLA (67-81). I was very impressed with what they did against a very solid Duquesne team yesterday in the opener of this Gulf Coast Showcase Tournament. They won 84-70 as 3.5-point favorites behind another great defensive effort. They have held three of their first four opponents to less than 40% shooting.
Murray State is in full-on rebuilding mode this season. They lost head coach Steve Brohm to Iowa State in the offseason, and they lost Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) to the NBA. But that wasn't all they lost. They only returned one starter this year in Jeffery Moss, losing their other four starters.
That does make their 3-1 start kind of impressive, but it's not like they've beaten anybody relevant as their three wins have come against Harris Stowe, Middle Tennessee State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. They lost to the best team they've played with a 52-63 setback at Georgia as 8.5-point dogs.
Plays on a favorite (PEPPERDINE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Murray State is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 vs. very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting to opponents. Pepperdine is 14-3 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons. The Waves are 14-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years. Roll with Pepperdine Tuesday.
|
11-23-15 |
East Carolina +14.5 v. San Diego State |
|
54-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on East Carolina +14.5
The East Carolina Pirates are catching way too many points tonight against the San Diego State Aztecs. We'll take advantage and back them as double-digit road underdogs here.
East Carolina is off to an impressive 2-1 start this season. It beat Grambling 61-53 and Charlotte 88-74 at home to open the season. But what really impressed me most is its 62-70 road loss as 20.5-point underdogs at nationally ranked California. The Pirates only shot 32.7% in that game yet found a way to hang around with one of the best teams in the country.
San Diego State has no business laying 14.5 points to East Carolina with what I've seen from it so far. The Aztecs are just 2-2 on the season with an 11-point home win over Illinois State, a 10-point home win over San Diego Christian, a 6-point home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock and a 5-point road loss to Utah.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (E CAROLINA) - slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1997. The Aztecs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. The Pirates are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with East Carolina Monday.
|
11-21-15 |
North Carolina -6.5 v. Northern Iowa |
|
67-71 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -6.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 ranked team in the country for good reason. They returned four starters and five key reserves from last year's team that made it to the Sweet 16. Even though Marcus Paige is hurt right now, this team can rely on their big men in Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to lead the way.
The Tar Heels have opened 3-0 with three blowout home wins over Temple (91-67), Fairfield (92-65) and Wofford (78-58). The balance on this team has been remarkable, but Meeks (16.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Johnson (16.0 ppg, 11.7 rpg) have stood out the most. Joel Berry II (15.0 ppg, 4.0 apg) has filled in nicely for Paige, and Nate Britt (13.0 ppg) is shooting 66.7% from 3-point range in the early going.
Northern Iowa is overvalued to start the season after a 31-4 campaign last year and a Missouri Valley Tournament Championship. But the Panthers had all 5 starters back last year, and now they just have 2 returning. They lose MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle (15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and two other starters in Melvin Singleton and Deon Mitchell. The Panthers lost to Colorado State 78-84 at home before beating Stephen F. Austin 70-60 at home. Now they face the toughest opponent they will all season, and I see no way they are able to stay within 6.5 points of the Tar Heels.
Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. UNC is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons. Take North Carolina Saturday.
|
11-20-15 |
Wright State +25 v. Kentucky |
|
63-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wright State +25
This is simply a situational play against Kentucky. The Wildcats are coming off a huge 74-63 over Duke on Tuesday, and I expect them to be still feeling a little too good about themselves. They won't come back with the kind of focus it takes to put away Wright State by more than 25 points.
Kentucky returned zero starters this season and is starting over. It only beat Albany by 13 points in its opener and New Jersey Tech by 30 in its second game. Now it is overvalued off that win over Duke.
Wright State is just 1-2 this season, but its two losses have come by 5 and 6 points to CS-Northridge and Northern Illinois, both on the road. Wright State has had four days off in between games, while Kentucky has had just two.
Wright State returned three key starters this season in JT Yoho (15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Joe Thomasson (10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Michael Karena (9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Also back are key reserves Grant Benzinger (9.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) and Steven Davis (7.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg). So, they returned each of their top four scorers from last year, which was an injury-riddled campaign as three of their best players missed significant playing time.
Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points, a good free throw shooting team making 72% of their free throws, who have a 45% field goal percentage defense or worse are 74-35 (67.9%) ATS since 1997. Roll with Wright State Friday.
|
11-19-15 |
Marshall +14 v. Tennessee |
|
74-84 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +14
Tennessee is in a transition year under first-year head coach Rick Barnes. The results haven't been promising in the early going with a narrow 82-78 home win over UNC-Asheville and a 67-69 road loss to Georgia Tech. The Volunteers have no business laying 14 points to this improved Marshall team.
Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni. It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play. Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.
The Herd return four starters from last year. That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system. Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg). Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.
D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason. He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year. He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina. He's starting to really get his pieces in place.
Tennessee is a woeful 0-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons, averaging 61.8 points and giving up 61.8 points in these spots. That's a trend we'll gladly ride tonight. Take Marshall Thursday.
|
11-19-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Mississippi State +10 |
Top |
105-79 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +10
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country. This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.
Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games. Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville. He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's. His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.
Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Travis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).
So, nearly the entire team returns from last year. Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era. Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit. He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.
After beating Eastern Washington 106-88 in their opener, the Bulldogs fell 72-76 at home to Southern. That loss obviously has the betting public not wanting anything to do with this team as they are now 10-point underdogs in this Puerto Rico Tip Off against Miami. Newmand didn't play against Eastern Washington, and he was on a minutes restriction against Southern. But now he's a full go and should make a huge difference for this team.
Miami has four starters back as well this season and is a good team, but should not be favored by double-digits here. It opened with an 86-59 win over UTRGV and a 93-77 win over LA-Lafayette and hasn't done anything to impress me with those two results. This is a team that shot just 42.8% last year, ranking 12th in the ACC.
Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Mississippi State Thursday.
|
11-18-15 |
IUPU-Indianapolis +12 v. NC State |
|
56-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on IUPUI +12
It's clear to me that IUPUI is going to be one of the best teams in the Summit League this season. The Jaguars returned four starters this year, and they nabbed three key transfers from Loyola Chicago in Nick Osborne, Matt O'Leary and Jordan Pickett. Another transfer, former Eastern Illinois guard Darrell Combs, is playing a big role as well.
IUPUI has opened with two tough opponents. It beat Indiana State 72-70 on the road as 8-point underdogs, and then only lost 71-75 at Marquette as 13.5-point dogs. Combs has led the way with 18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 4.0 apg through the first two games. Osbourne (11.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and O'Leary (8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) are holding down the fort in the paint.
NC State came into the season overvalued after knocking off top-seeded Villanova in the NCAA Tournament last year. But the Wolfpack lost four key contributors in the offseason, and their recruiting "class" included just one person, so they have only 10 players on scholarship this year.
Trevor Lacey (15.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) left early for the NBA and went undrafted, which was a huge blow. Ralston Turner (12.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Kyle Washington (6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) also departed. That leaves three returning starters in Cat Barber (12.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Lennard Freeman (3.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg). Also, their lone recruit in the offseason was WVU transfer Terry Henderson, and he is out 6-8 weeks to start the season with an ankle injury.
NC State had one of the worst performances of the early college hoops season, losing 68-85 at home to William & Mary as 12.5-point favorites. If that 17-point loss doesn't show how much the Wolfpack are in trouble this year, then I don't know what does. They did rebound with an 88-70 home win over South Alabama as expected to cover the 15.5-point spread, but this underrated IUPUI team will give them a run for their money tonight.
IUPUI is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons. The Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two years. IUPUI is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Bet IUPUI Wednesday.
|
11-17-15 |
CS-Fullerton v. Pacific -5.5 |
|
77-76 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pacific -5.5
Pacific returned all five starters from a team that went just 12-19 last season. But it was a rebuilding year last season, and now the Tigers will be a big-time sleeper in the West Coast Conference with what they have returning.
T.J. Wallace (13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Eric Thompson (8.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Ray Bowles (6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg), David Taylor (7.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg) and Sami Eleraky (3.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are all back. Coach Ron Verlin added a playmaker in Maleke Haynes and a stretch four in Tonko Vuko from the junior college ranks, while also nabbing high-scoring prep star Anthony Townes. Townes is from the same high school that sent T.J. Wallace and Ray Bowles to the Tigers.
I was impressed with the way Pacific competed in its opener, a 61-79 loss at highly-ranked Arizona, covering the spread as 23.5-point underdogs. After shaking off the nerves with a poor first half, Pacific was only outscored 37-38 after intermission by Arizona. That's a performance that this team can build off of leading into this game with CS-Fullerton.
Cal-State Fullerton went 9-22 last year, including 1-15 in Big West play. It is picked to finish last in the Big West again in 2015-16. It's easy to see why as the Titans lose four starters in Alex Harris, (15.8 ppg), Moses Morgan (8.0 ppg), Steven McClellan (6.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Josh Gentry (6.2 ppg). Their only returning starter is Kennedy Esume (4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg). To say they are starting over would be an understatement.
Fullerton lost its opener 74-79 as 2-point underdogs at Loyola-Marymount. Keep in mind that Loyola-Marymount went 8-23 last season. Plus, the Lions only returned two starters from last year and are pretty much starting over. They are picked to finish last in the West Coast Conference this season, well behind Pacific. Coach Mike Dunlap cleaned house, yet they were still able to beat this awful Fullerton team in the opener.
Pacific is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Fullerton. Fullerton is 9-21 ATS in road games over the last two seasons, and 17-35-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Roll with Pacific Tuesday.
|
11-17-15 |
Oklahoma -4 v. Memphis |
|
84-78 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
15* Oklahoma/Memphis ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4
The Oklahoma Sooners are the No. 8 ranked team in the country for good reason this year. They return four starters, three of them seniors, from last season's squad that went 24-11 and barely missed the Elite 8.
Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield is back after averaging 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds last year. Also back are Jordan Woodard (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg), Ryan Spangler (9.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg).
Highly regarded recruits Christian James and Rashard Odomes will play immediately. Odomes averaged 25.2 points last year as a senior at Copperas Cove High School. James broke his leg in an AAU game last August before his senior year of high school but is fully recovered.
Josh Pastner's seat is getting very hot at Memphis. The Tigers went just 18-14 last season and finished 10-8 in the AAC. They lost Kuran Iverson to transfer in the middle of last season, and saw Nick King and RaShawn Powell elect to leave the program after the season was over.
But the biggest blow for the Tigers came in July, when standout sophomore forward Austin Nichols surprisingly decided to leave the program as well, ending up with Virginia. Nichols was the AAC Rookie of the Year two years ago and first-team all-league player last season, when he led the Tigers in scoring (13.3 ppg) and was second in the league in blocked shots (3.4 bpg).
Memphis did open with a 67-49 win over Southern Miss Saturday, but that was an awful Golden Eagles team that went 9-20 last season. Southern Miss also returned just one starter from last year and lost its two best players in Chip Armelin (15.8 ppg) and Matt Bingaya (13.8 ppg).
Memphis also allowed 21 offensive rebounds by Southern Miss in that game, which is a sign that Pastner just doesn't have control of this team. Look for the Tigers to get outworked by the Sooners on the glass in this one. Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, losing by an average of 13.2 points per game. Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.
|
11-16-15 |
Monmouth v. USC -9.5 |
|
90-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -9.5
The USC Trojans are certainly a team to keep your eye on this season. Andy Enfield enters Year 3 here with by far his best team yet. The Trojans didn't lose a single player who started a game in 2014-15. Their heralded 2014 recruiting class is a year older, and they've added a pair of four-star recruits in forward Benny Boatwright and center Chimezie Metu.
All five returning starters are back in Jordan McClaughlin (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), Katin Reinhardt (12.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg), Julian Jacobs (8.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Elijah Stewart (6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (12.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg). This is a core group that improved as the season went on, but suffered and absurd amount of close losses in Pac-12 play. Look for those losses to start turning into wins in 2015-16.
I like what I saw from USC in its opener, an 83-45 beat down of San Diego as 12.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 25.5 points. McLaughlin (20), Steward (14), Jacobs (11) and Boatwright (10) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Trojans. But the defense was even more impressive, limiting San Diego to 15-of-61 (24.6%) shooting.
This is a massive letdown spot for Monmouth. It beat UCLA 84-81 on the road as 15-point underdogs in its opener, and it is clearly overvalued after that result. The Bruins gave the game away by committing 23 turnovers despite outrebounding Monmouth 60-37 for the game. Rebounding could be an issue again for Monmouth against USC, which outrebounded San Diego 55-36. UCLA also escaped with an 88-83 win over Cal Poly last night, so it's clear that the Bruins aren't great this year.
Plays on a favorite (USC) - after allowing 50 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on a favorite (USC) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with USC Monday.
|
11-15-15 |
Cal Poly v. UCLA -7 |
|
83-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7
The UCLA Bruins will be highly motivated for a win today after getting upset by Monmouth 81-84 in their opener. They committed 23 turnovers and only forced 7 to essentially give the game away. Look for the Bruins to shore up those turnover issues and to come back with a much better effort Sunday.
This is a UCLA team that won 22 games last year and advanced to the Sweet 16. They have three starters back from that team in Bryce Alford (15.4 ppg, 4.9 apg), Tony Parker (11.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Isaac Hamilton (10.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg). Parker is going to be one of the best players in the country this season. He had 19 points and 19 rebounds against Monmouth.
Cal Poly is coming off a 72-74 loss at UNLV. It trailed by double-digits in the second half before coming back to make it close late, which I believe is keeping this line against UCLA smaller than it should be. The Mustangs returned three starters this season from a team that went just 13-16 last year.
Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. UCLA is 31-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Mustangs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. UCLA is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games overall. Roll with UCLA Sunday.
|
11-13-15 |
Cal Poly v. UNLV -6.5 |
Top |
72-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
20* CBB 2015 Season Opening BEST BET on UNLV -6.5
The UNLV Rebels were much better than their 18-15 record and 8-10 mark in Mountain West play indicated last year. They lost three times to league champ San Diego State by a combined 11 points. They covered 11 of their last 13 games to close out the season, and I look for that momentum to carry over into 2015.
Head coach Dave Rice is on the hot seat as his team didn't live up to expectations last year, but he's still 89-47 in his four seasons here. He also delivered another Top 10 recruiting class nationally. Freshman forward Derrick Jones chose UNLV over UConn, Kentucky and Kansas. Fellow freshman Stephen Zimmerman is a five-star center from Las Vegas' Bishop Gorman High and a Top 10 recruit.
The Rebels do have two returning starters too in guard Patrick McGraw (9.6 ppg, 2.7 apg), F/C Goodluck Okonoboh (5.7 ppg, 4.5 rpb), and a couple of key reserves ready for bigger roles in sophomore guard Jordan Cornish and sophomore forward Dwayne Morgan. Both players will see increased minutes due to the losses of Rashad Vaughn and Christian Wood, who left early for the NBA.
Cal Paly went just 13-16 last season and is only picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West this year. They do return three starters, but none of them averaged more than 11.5 points per game last year. This team is simply going to be overmatched talent-wise and will struggled to keep this game close.
UNLV does have a nice home-court advantage as it went 13-4 and outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game inside the Thomas & Mack Center. Cal Poly went just 6-12 on the road last year where it scored only 58.3 points per game. Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents. Roll with UNLV Friday.
|
11-13-15 |
Eastern Washington v. Mississippi State -10 |
|
88-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -10
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country. This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.
Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games. Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville. He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's. His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.
Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Trvis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).
So, nearly the entire team returns from last year. Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era. Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit. He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA. Newman may be on a minutes limit tonight because he's recovering from a toe injury, but it's not going to matter.
Eastern Washington comes into 2015-16 overvalued due to its 26-9 season and NCAA Tournament appearance last year. But four starters are gone from that team, including Tyler Harvey (23.1 ppg), who left a year early for the NBA. Also gone are three other starters who averaged 9.7, 9.7 and 7.7 points per game, respectively. It's safe to say that the Eagles are rebuilding in 2015 with just one starter back.
Howland is 81-51 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points in all games he has coached with his teams winning by 17.9 points per game on average. Bet Mississippi State Friday.
|
04-06-15 |
Wisconsin -1 v. Duke |
Top |
63-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
20* Wisconsin/Duke Championship Game No-Brainer on Wisconsin -1
The Wisconsin Badgers have showed a ton of guts in their last two games in erasing second-half deficits to beat two of the best teams in college basketball in Arizona and Kentucky. Their veteran leadership has been huge for them down the stretch.
I'll take these veteran Badgers over the young Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game. Sam Dekker has been out of this world clutch for Wisconsin, and Frank Kaminsky is showing why he's the Player of the Year in College Basketball.
While the Badgers had a tough road to get here, the Blue Devils had a very easy path in comparison. Their last two games have come against Gonzaga and No. 7 Michigan State, which was fortunate just to make the Final Four. This major step up in competition will be too much for Duke tonight.
Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons. The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years. Wisconsin is 45-22-1 ATS in its last 68 non-conference games. The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC foes. Bet Wisconsin Monday.
|
04-04-15 |
Michigan State v. Duke -5 |
Top |
61-81 |
Win
|
100 |
122 h 6 m |
Show
|
25* Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -5
Duke (33-4) has been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. It has yet to be really tested as all four of its games were pretty much decided with 10 minutes to go. It beat Robert Morris by 29 and San Diego State by 19 in the first two rounds to get things started.
Sure, it only beat Utah 63-57 in the Sweet 16, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils led by 15 with under 10 minutes to go before a mini-rally by the Utes made the final score appear close. They then put together their most impressive performance of the tournament yet with a 66-52 thrashing of Gonzaga in the Elite 8.
While the Blue Devils are known for being one of the best offensive teams in the country, it’s their defense that has carried them thus far. They are giving up just 53.5 points per game in the big dance. They held Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah all to below 37% shooting, and then Gonzaga to 44%.
There's no question that Michigan State's run to the Final Four has been remarkable. However, despite being a No. 7 seed, it has actually been favored in three of the four games it has played. The only upset win came against Virginia in the Round of 32. I look at that as a key indicator that the Spartans have had a very easy path to the Final Four.
I also look at Michigan State's results and see that it easily could have lost all four games it played. It only beat Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma by 4, and it needed overtime to get by Louisville by 7. I believe that the Spartans' luck will run out this weekend against the best team they have played by far.
Duke is 16-1 in its last 17 games overall with six of its last eight victories coming by 12 points or more. Each of its last nine wins have come by at least 5 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Duke is 10-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.
Mike Krzyzewski is 8-1 against Tom Izzo in his career with all eight victories coming by 5 points or more. That includes an 81-71 victory over the Spartans earlier this season on November 18th. The Blue Devils also beat the Spartans 71-61 two years ago in the NCAA Tournament. The talent gap between these teams has been hugely in Duke's favor in the past, and it is once again this year as freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones will prove to be too much. Bet Duke Saturday.
|
04-02-15 |
Stanford v. Miami (FL) +2 |
Top |
66-64 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
20* Stanford/Miami NIT Championship No-Brainer on Miami +2
The ACC showed very well for itself in the NCAA Tournament. It is doing so in the NIT as well thanks to Miami, which just keeps finding ways to win as its mental makeup couldn't be much stronger with the path it has taken to get here.
The Hurricanes came back from a big deficit against Richmond to win 63-61 on the road, and then topped Temple 60-57 in the semifinals after trailing for most of the way. They have now won seven of their last eight games overall heading into the Championship Game.
Stanford has had the easier path since it played its first three games at home before beating Old Dominion 67-60 in the semifinals. What I love about this matchup is that the Hurricanes should continue to have a huge rebounding advantage. They have outrebounded each of their last eight opponents coming in.
Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season. The hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in road games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers this year. The Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Thursday.
|
03-31-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Temple -1.5 |
Top |
60-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1.5
The Temple Owls (26-10) have been playing like an NCAA Tournament team ever since they got healthy midseason. Jesse Morgan (12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) missed 10 games early on, but when he returned, the Owls have really been hitting all cylinders since.
Temple has gone 14-3 in its last 17 games overall. All three of its losses came on the road to SMU (twice) and Tulsa, which are arguably the two best teams in the AAC. I've really been impressed with the ease in which the Owls have reached the semifinals of the NIT.
After a 73-67 win over a pesky Bucknell team, the Owls have rolled George Washington (90-77) and Louisiana Tech (77-59) to get here. Morgan came up huge in both wins, scoring 20 points in only 23 minutes against George Washington and 17 points in 24 minutes against Louisiana Tech.
Miami (24-12) is a team that has simply won a ton of close games all season and is not as good as its record would indicate. It has won 10 games by 5 points or less, and all three of its wins in the NIT have come by 7 points or fewer. It beat NC Central (75-71) at home, Alabama (73-66) at home, and Richmond (63-61) on the road.
Temple is 10-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season. The Owls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. Bet Temple Tuesday.
|
03-29-15 |
Gonzaga +3 v. Duke |
Top |
52-66 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
20* Gonzaga/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Gonzaga +3
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season. This is easily the best team that Mark Few has ever had. They are 35-2 on the season with one of their losses coming in overtime on the road at Arizona, which is a very tough place to play.
The Bulldogs have been rolling through the NCAA Tournament thus far with three straight double-digit victories over NDSU (86-76), Iowa (87-68) and UCLA (74-62). Some of their best players even had an off night as they shot 40.3% from the floor against the Bruins, but they still won by 12 points.
I believe Gonzaga is a better team than Duke and it should not be the underdog. The Blue Devils have also had a pair of blowout wins over Robert Morris (85-56) and San Diego State (68-49), but they had to hold on late to beat Utah (63-57) last time out. I just believe that the Bulldogs have more balance than the Blue Devils do. The Bulldogs have the size inside to disrupt Jahlil Okafor just as Utah did.
Gonzaga ia 11-1 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons. The Bulldogs are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Gonzaga Sunday.
|
03-28-15 |
Notre Dame +11 v. Kentucky |
Top |
66-68 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 10 m |
Show
|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. That has clearly carried over into the big dance as well as they've won three straight games, including an impressive 81-70 victory over Wichita State last round, to reach the Elite 8.
The Fighting Irish have now won eight straight coming into this game, which includes wins against ranked teams in then-No. 16 Louisville (71-59), then-No. 2 Duke (74-64) and then-No. 19 North Carolina (90-82). So, they have obviously beaten some very good teams during this streak.
Notre Dame players are clearly playing for head coach Mike Brey right now. He revealed to his players only after a 67-64 (OT) win over Butler in the Round of 32 that he lost his mother earlier that day. The players responded in a big way with that 11-point win over Wichita State, and I look for them to use that as extra motivation for them against Kentucky in the Elite 8.
I believe Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 78-39 beat down of West Virginia in the Sweet 16. Looking back, that was a terrible matchup for the Mountaineers. To hang with Kentucky you have to be a good 3-point shooting team, and the Mountaineers are one of the worst in the tournament.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, is an elite offensive team that can hit the 3-pointer with the best of them. It is shooting 52% overall in the tournament and 38% from 3-point range. It scores 78.3 points per game on the season on 51.1% shooting overall and 39.2% from beyond the arc. The Fighting Irish have what it takes to go basket for basket with the Wildcats. They spread you out with four 3-point shooters on the court at all times, which will nullify Kentucky's height advantage inside defensively.
The Fighting Irish are 11-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC opponents. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|
03-28-15 |
Arizona -1 v. Wisconsin |
|
78-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 30 m |
Show
|
15* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -1
The Arizona Wildcats have waited an entire year for the opportunity at revenge against Wisconsin. They lost in the Elite 8 to the Badgers last year by a final of 63-64 (OT), and that has left a sour taste in their mouth all offseason and throughout the year. I believe that extra motivation will push them over the top as they get revenge in the Elite 8 exactly one year later.
Plus, I believe the Wildcats are the better team as well. They are 34-3 on the season with their three losses coming by a combined 9 points. That's how close they are to being 37-0 right alongside Kentucky. They have won 14 in a row coming into this one with all 14 wins coming by 6 points or more, and 11 of those 14 coming by double-digits.
Wisconsin has been very vulnerable up to this point in the tournament. It only beat Coastal Carolina by 14 as 20.5-point favorites while giving up 48.3% shooting. It only beat Oregon by 7 as 12.5-point favorites while allowing Joseph Young to score 30 points. It then was fortunate to beat UNC by 7 last time out as this was a 1-point game in the final minute.
Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or less turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents. Arizona is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games overall. Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Take Arizona Saturday.
|
03-27-15 |
NC State +3 v. Louisville |
Top |
65-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State +3
You would have to say that NC State (22-13, 10-8 ACC) has been the surprise of the tournament up to this point. It was very fortunate to survive in a 66-65 win over LSU in the Round of 64. The Tigers missed each of their last six free throw attempts to allow the Wolfpack to escape with a 16-point come-from-behind victory. It was a different story against No. 1 Villanova in the Round of 32.
The Wolfpack controlled the game most of the way against the Wildcats and eventually held on for a 71-68 victory. Four different NC State played scored in double figures, led by Trevor Lacey’s 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Cat Barber added 13 points, while Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds) controlled the paint all game.
NC State has really been playing well for quite some time now. It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall. That includes a 74-65 win at then-No. 9 Louisville on February 14th as 10.5-point underdogs as the Cardinals shot just 32.8%, so this will be a rematch. It also won at then-No. 15 North Carolina 58-46 on February 24th. It has beaten Duke within the conference as well. Throw in that win over Villanova, and the Wolfpack are proving they can play with anyone.
Louisville has had a relatively easy path to get here. It barely survived in a 57-55 victory over UC-Irvine in the opener. It then played a Northern Iowa team that was probably overvalued due to its record in the last round, winning that game 66-53. UNI didn't have the guards that could deal with Louisville's press, but this is a much tougher matchup for the Cardinals because the Wolfpack do have the guards to deal with it. They also have Abu and Freeman inside who can counter Montrezl Harrell.
The Wolfpack are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. NC State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Louisville is 9-17 ATS as a favorite this season. Thee Cardinals are 3-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this year. Bet NC State Friday.
|
03-26-15 |
Xavier v. Arizona -10.5 |
Top |
60-68 |
Loss |
-104 |
25 h 11 m |
Show
|
20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -10.5
The Arizona Wildcats are proving in the NCAA Tournament that they were deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have been one of the most impressive teams thus far in the big dance, and I look for them to continue their dominance in the Sweet 16 against Xavier.
After all, Arizona (33-3) is three losses by a combined 9 points away from being 36-0 right now right alongside Kentucky. They beat Texas Southern (93-72) in the opening round, which is the same Texas Southern team that has wins over Michigan State and Kansas State this season.
In the Round of 32, the Wildcats put together one of their most impressive performances of the season. They beat Ohio State 73-58 despite shooting just 36.5% from the field. They did so by limiting the Buckeyes to just 3 second-chance points for the entire game while rebounding 78 percent of their misses.
Xavier couldn't have had an easier path to the Sweet 16, and therefore it is overvalued coming into this game. It got to play an Ole Miss team that was tired after staging a huge comeback two days earlier against BYU in the opener. Then, it got lucky and had Georgia State upset No. 3 Baylor. The Musketeers would only beat Georgia State 75-67 despite shooting 67.6 percent from the floor, which was the third-best mark in the NCAA Tournament over the past 15 years.
Xavier has played some good teams this season, but it has yet to face a team the quality of Arizona. The only thing close has been Villanova, and the Musketeers have been blown out three times by the Wildcats. They lost 88-75 at Villanova, 78-66 at home against the Wildcats, and 69-52 in the Big East Tournament to Villanova.
Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus games this season. The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season. Arizona is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall. The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Arizona Thursday.
|
03-26-15 |
West Virginia +13.5 v. Kentucky |
|
39-78 |
Loss |
-103 |
25 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* Sweet 16 Thursday Night Line Mistake on West Virginia +13.5
Bobby Huggins finds himself back in the Sweet 16 with a West Virginia team that is hitting on all cylinders right now. What I love about the Musketeers is that they play a style of basketball that Kentucky isn't used to, and thus they have an excellent chance of hanging around in this game.
The Mountaineers beat Buffalo 68-62 before beating down Maryland 69-59. They forced 23 turnovers and scored 26 points off of them in Sunday's win over Maryland. The Terrapins only managed four points against their press in the second half. They also forced turnovers on 26 percent of Buffalo's possessions in the opener.
Kentucky showed it was vulnerable as Cincinnati played it tough for the first 25 minutes. The Wildcats did eventually pull away for a 64-51 victory, but they fell to 0-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They beat Hampton by 23 as 34.5-point favorites and Cincinnati by 13 as 16-point favorites. Once again, I believe the Wildcats are overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites over WVU.
West Virginia is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 NCAA Tournament games. The Mountaineers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 post-season tournament games. West Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Kentucky is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games. Take West Virginia Thursday.
|
03-23-15 |
Evansville -2 v. Eastern Illinois |
|
83-68 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2
The Evansville Purple Aces should be much heavier favorites today against the Eastern Illinois Panthers. It's amazing that they even have to play this game on the road considering they are the better team, but that won't be a big deal since they are the better team, and now they're showing great value as only 2-point favorites.
Evansville is now 20-12 on the season following its 82-77 home victory over a pesky IUPU-Fort Wayne team in the opening round of the CIT. This is a Purple Aces team that only lost twice in non-conference play, and both came by exactly two points against very good Green Bay and Murray State teams. They also beat Northern Iowa, which has only lost four times all season.
Eastern Illinois is just 18-14 on the season. It did upset Oakland 97-91 in the opening round of the CIT, but that effort has it overvalued coming in. The Panthers lost by 33 to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament. They went just 5-6 in non-conference play, which includes an 11-point loss to Missouri State, a 22-point loss to Creighton, and a 25-point loss to NC Central.
The Panthers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Purple Aces are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. The Panthers are 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Evansville is 6-0 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Eastern Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight games where they had five or less steals over the last two seasons. Take Evansville Monday.
|
03-22-15 |
Iowa v. Gonzaga -6 |
Top |
68-87 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 40 m |
Show
|
25* South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -6
Gonzaga (33-2, 17-1 WCC) got more of a scare from North Dakota State in the first round than it would have liked. While it was never in real serious jeopardy, it simply could not deliver the knockout blow in an 86-76 victory. Kyle Wiltjer was brilliant, connecting on 8-of-12 from the field for 23 points. Kevin Pangos added 18 points, including 4-of-9 from 3-point range, in the win.
The Bulldogs probably still feel like they got snubbed from a No. 1 seed. This is easily the best team that head coach Mark Few has ever had. They proved they were for real back in December when they took Arizona to overtime on the road. They also beat SMU by 16, Georgia by 12, St. John’s by 7, Washington State by 15 and UCLA by 13 out of conference. They outscore the opposition by an average of 18.0 points per game.
Iowa put together perhaps the most impressive performance of the tournament thus far in its 83-52 beat down of Davidson. Many had picked the Wildcats to upset the Hawkeyes, but in the end, this was a total mismatch. The Hawkeyes had a huge height advantage and they capitalized on it. It turned out to be just a terrible matchup for the Wildcats.
This line is clearly an overreaction from Iowa blowing Davidson out and Gonzaga failing to cover in a 10-point win over North Dakota State. This line would have been set much closer to 10 had these teams played before the Round of 64 results. That’s why I believe there is value with the Zags, who will have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle.
Gonzaga is 18-9 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 18-7 ATS when playing on one or less days’ rest over the last two years. Gonzaga is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS loss. Iowa is 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes won't have the height advantage they had against Davidson. Bet Gonzaga.
|
03-21-15 |
Arkansas +4.5 v. North Carolina |
|
78-87 |
Loss |
-106 |
12 h 60 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +4.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament. I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run. They survived against Wofford in the opener, and that will give them confidence that they can pull out another close one against UNC today.
This is a team that went 27-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky. Three of its eight losses have actually come to Kentucky, so it has been nearly unbeatable outside of the Wildcats.
Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton. It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.
What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for. They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks. Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.
North Carolina (25-11) has been inconsistent all season. That showed again in a narrow 67-65 win over Harvard as 10-point favorites in the Round of 64. I just don't believe this team should be laying points to the Razorbacks, who are the better squad in my opinion.
The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots this season. UNC is 0-6 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Razorbacks. Take Arkansas Saturday.
|
03-21-15 |
Utah v. Georgetown +4.5 |
Top |
75-64 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
20* Georgetown/Utah South Region No-Brainer on Georgetown +4.5
Georgetown (22-10, 12-6 Big East) put to rest all the talk that it couldn’t handle underdogs. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera scored 25 points, Mikael Hopkins had 10 points and nine rebounds, and the Hoyas avoided another tournament upset by beating No. 13 Eastern Washington 84-74 Thursday night. They had lost four of their last five tournament games, and they found themselves down by seven in the first half, but they eventually stormed out to a 23-point lead before holding on late.
The Hoyas have all the pieces to make a deep run. Former UCLA problem child Josh Smith is a dominant post force, Smith-Rivera can do everything a lead guard must do, Hopkins is the heart of the Hoyas’ defense, Isaac Copeland is a versatile freshman with an NBA future, and Jabril Trawick strikes fear into the opposition.
Utah has been extremely vulnerable down the stretch since a 21-4 start. It has lost four of its last eight games overall, and it barely survived in a 57-50 win over Stephen F. Austin on Thursday. The Lumberjacks were within three points late, but the Utes iced it from the free throw line. Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Hoyas tonight.
Remember, this is a Georgetown team that beat Villanova by 20 points earlier this season to hand the Wildcats one of their two losses. The Hoyas are 94-57 ATS in their last 151 non-conference games, including 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference opponents. Bet Georgetown Saturday.
|
03-20-15 |
Dayton +3 v. Providence |
|
66-53 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* Dayton/Providence Late-Night BAILOUT on Dayton +3
The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year as well.
If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.
Dayton trailed most of the way in its First Four game against Boise State, which was essentially a home game for the Flyers as it was played inside Dayton Arena. However, the Flyers got a game-winning 3-pointer from Sibert with 36 seconds left to play that proved to be the difference in a 56-55 victory over the Broncos. They improved to 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games.
The Flyers are 14-4 ATS in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Dayton is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 non-conference road games. The Flyers are 22-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last two years. Providence is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games after covering four of its last five against the spread.
Dayton had a real home-court advantage in the First Four game and prevailed in a tight one with Boise State. Jordan Sibert was in foul trouble, but when he was on the floor the Flyers were dangerous. Now, they’ll actually get to play in their home state again in Columbus, Ohio, which is another huge advantage. I look for them to feed off of the crowd and to pull the upset of Providence, which is one of the more overrated teams in the country. Roll with Dayton Friday.
|
03-20-15 |
Albany NY v. Oklahoma -13 |
|
60-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -13
Oklahoma (22-10, 12-6 Big 12) finished in a tie for second place in the Big 12 this season, which was easily the strongest conference in the country. Veteran head coach Lon Krueger brought back a ton of talent from last year, and he added in Tashawn Thomas, a Houston transfer who provided the Sooners with a big who can score.
Without question, the Sooners have one of the best starting fives in the country. Buddy Hield (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is one of the best players in the land, but Isaiah Cousins (12.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), TaShawn Thomas (11.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Ryan Spangler (10.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (9.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.9 apg) are all capable of carrying the team on a given night. The only weakness is a lack of depth off the bench.
Albany (24-8, 15-1 Am. East) rolled through a weak conference schedule, but it was a completely different story out of conference. The Great Danes went just 9-8 in non-conference play. They lost to Quinnipiac, Holy Cross, St. Francis, Bucknell and Niagara, which shows that they simply aren't very good.
Albany struggles to score the basketball as well, ranking 218th in scoring (65.5 points/game) and 312th in assists (10.4/game). Oklahoma has no trouble scoring the basketball, ranking 65th at 71.9 points per game. I look for the Sooners to jump out to a big lead, and for Albany to not have the firepower to hang around.
Oklahoma is 14-5 ATS against poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 21-10 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. They’ll be up against an Albany team that is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. Take Oklahoma Friday.
|
03-20-15 |
Valparaiso v. Maryland -4 |
Top |
62-65 |
Loss |
-113 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland -4
Maryland (27-6, 14-4 Big Ten) was one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. It continues to lack the respect it deserves as only a 4-point favorite over No. 13 Valparaiso in the Round of 64. The Terrapins even deserved better than a No. 4 seed in my opinion.
Maryland went 10-1 in non-conference play with its only loss coming to then-No. 7 Virginia. It beat then-No. 13 Iowa State 72-63 and Arizona State 78-73 for two impressive non-conference wins, while also going on the road and beating Oklahoma State (73-64). It has six wins in Big Ten play against NCAA Tournament teams as well, including two over Michigan State and one over Wisconsin.
Valparaiso had a fine season at 28-5 and 13-3 in the Horizon League, but it is not battle-tested because it played such a soft schedule this year. Its non-conference schedule was a joke with its best win coming against Murray State, but it also lost by 15 at Missouri (41-56), which was terrible this year. The Horizon League was a joke this year as well outside of Wisconsin-Green Bay, which lost to Illinois State in the first round of the NIT.
The Terrapins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. Maryland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Crusaders are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents. Valpo is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games. These last four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Terrapins. Bet Maryland Friday.
|
03-19-15 |
Wofford v. Arkansas -7.5 |
Top |
53-56 |
Loss |
-105 |
22 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament. I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run, and I look for them to do just that starting with this game against Wofford.
It's obvious that the Razorbacks don't get the love they deserve when this line is only 7.5 in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup. I look for them to go out and earn it in this game. This is a team that went 26-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.
Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton. It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action. Three of its eight losses this season came to Kentucky.
What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for. They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks. Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.
Wofford posted an impressive 28-6 record this season, but it did so against the weakest of schedules. The Terriers only had one good non-conference win this season, which was a 55-54 victory at NC State. They were blown out by 33 at West Virginia, by 29 at Duke and by 15 at Stanford. If they cannot compete with those teams, they certainly aren't going to hang with Arkansas.
Arkansas is 8-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons, coming back to win by an average of 15.1 points per game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. The Terriers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. SEC foes. Bet Arkansas Thursday.
|
03-19-15 |
Texas -1.5 v. Butler |
|
48-56 |
Loss |
-108 |
15 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Texas -1.5
The higher seed is going to beat the lower seed in this game between No. 11 Texas and No. 6 Butler. It will be an upset in terms of the bracket, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have this one right in listing the Longhorns as the favorites. They are the better team and it will show on Thursday.
Texas (20-13) was a popular pick to make the Final Four coming into the season. With all five starters back, and the addition of future lottery pick Myles Turner, it's easy to see why. Well, the Longhorns did not live up to expectations this year, and it didn't help that they played one of the toughest schedules in the country, as well as in the toughest conference in the country.
There's no denying that Texas has the pieces and the talent to make a deep run in the big dance. They have a dynamic point guard in Isiah Taylor, a versatile wingman in Jonathan Holmes, and an imposing back line. In fact, no team blocks more shots per possession than the Longhorns. I believe their size will give the undersized Butler Bulldogs fits in this one.
When you look at Texas' season, it's easy to see that it was better than its record would indicate. It played a brutal non-conference schedule with wins over Iowa, Cal and UConn, while losing to Kentucky and Stanford (OT). Each of its last six losses in Big 12 play came by 8 points or less, so it was simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.
The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Texas is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Texas Thursday.
|
03-19-15 |
UAB +14 v. Iowa State |
|
60-59 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UAB +14
The UAB Blazers benefited from playing the Conference USA Tournament in their home city. They parlayed that home-court advantage into a Conference USA Tournament title. They beat Western Kentucky 53-52, Louisiana Tech 72-62 (OT), and Middle Tennessee 73-60 to punch their ticket to the big dance.
However, I would argue that UAB (19-15) is much better than its record would indicate. In fact, each of its last six losses came by either 4 points or less or in overtime. You have to go all the way back to December 27th against North Carolina on the road to find the last time that the Blazers were really blown out. They were also blown out by Wisconsin, and lost to Florida by 9 and UCLA by 12 in the non conference.
Iowa State is getting a lot of hype coming into the NCAA Tournament due to its Big 12 Tournament win. Well, nothing came easy for the Cyclones. In fact, they have trailed by double-digits in each of their last five games and by a combined 75 points, yet they have gone 5-0 with all close victories. They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition and falling behind early, which bodes well for the Blazers covering this 14-point spread.
Due to all of these close games, it’s no wonder that the Blazers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. UAB is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against a team with a winning record. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. UAB is also 10-1 ATS against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games this season. Take UAB Thursday.
|
03-18-15 |
Boise State v. Dayton -4 |
Top |
55-56 |
Loss |
-106 |
31 h 29 m |
Show
|
25* NCAA First Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Dayton -4
The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year.
If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.
Boise State is 25-8 on the season as well and had a very solid year. But it played a much softer schedule than Dayton this season. The Broncos are overvalued coming in due to having gone 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They have to make a long trip to Dayton for this First-Four game, which is a huge disadvantage.
Dayton is 16-0 at home this season and has won its last 21 overall at UD Arena, which is the seventh-longest active streak in Division 1. The Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or more and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or less. Bet Dayton Wednesday.
|
03-18-15 |
Wisconsin Green Bay v. Illinois State -3 |
|
56-69 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -3
The Illinois State Redbirds (21-12) were overlooked this season in the Missouri Valley Conference. That's because both Wichita State and Northern Iowa had tremendous seasons. Well, there's no question that the Redbirds were the third-best team in the conference.
There's no question in my mind that the Redbirds were even better than their 21-12 record would suggest. In fact, eight of their 12 losses came by 6 points or less, so they were simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.
Wisconsin-Green Bay played an easier schedule than Illinois State coming from the Horizon League. It posted a solid 25-8 record this season, but it just couldn't beat Valpo when it needed to to get in the big dance. I believe the Phoenix are still deflated following their loss to the Crusaders in the championship game.
One way to compare teams is common opponents. These teams played the same four teams this year. Green Bay went 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game. Illinois State went 6-0 against those same four teams, outscoring them by 14.7 points per game.
Illinois State is 11-2 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons. Green Bay is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games after covering two of its last three against the spread. The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Take Illinois State Wednesday.
|
03-17-15 |
Ole Miss +4 v. BYU |
|
94-90 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* First-Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +4
Many felt that the BYU Cougars (25-9) did not belong in the NCAA Tournament because of their lack of quality wins. I would have to agree, but a big finish and a win over Gonzaga got them in even though they would lose by 16 to the Zags in the conference tournament.
The Cougars didn't have one really impressive win outside of the conference, but they lost to SDSU, Purdue and Utah. The Ole Miss Rebels (20-12) had their fair share of quality non-conference wins. They beat Cincinnati on a neutral court and Oregon on the road.
There's no question that the Rebels played the tougher schedule in the SEC. They took Kentucky to overtime on the road, which was the toughest that any team played the Wildcats this season. They also beat fellow NCAA Tournament team Arkansas and played several others very tight.
Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games this year. The Cougars are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games. The Rebels are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. Take Ole Miss Tuesday.
|
03-17-15 |
UTEP +5.5 v. Murray State |
Top |
66-81 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +5.5
The Murray State Racers (27-5) are extremely disappointed that they won't be playing in the NCAA Tournament. They felt like they did enough to get in, but the committee saw it differently after their lost to Belmont on a last-second 3-pointer in the conference championship game.
The UTEP Miners (22-10) are a very good team that played a much more difficult schedule than the Racers did this season. They are the better team in this game in my opinion, and they should not even be underdogs to the Racers, let alone 5.5-point dogs.
UTEP did lose four non-conference games this year, but all four of them came by 7 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Arizona. Murray State also lost four non-conference games, including a 74-77 home loss to Houston, a 62-89 loss at Xavier, and a 58-93 loss to Valparaiso.
The Miners are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The Racers are 24-48 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game since 1997. The Miners are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. loss. The Racers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Bet UTEP Tuesday.
|
03-15-15 |
Arkansas +14 v. Kentucky |
Top |
63-78 |
Loss |
-111 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
20* Arkansas/Kentucky SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +14
The Arkansas Razorbacks are the type of team that can beat Kentucky. They are nearly as athletic as the Wildcats, and they have a big man in Bobby Portis who is one of the best players in college basketball to match up with them.
Arkansas has been killing it in the SEC Tournament thus far. They beat Georgia 60-49 yesterday, but also topped Tennessee 80-72 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate; they were up 20 at half.
Arkansas is 11-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS off a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season. Kentucky is 5-12 ATS after allowing 30 points or less at the half in two straight games. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Bet Arkansas Sunday.
|
03-14-15 |
Iowa State +2.5 v. Kansas |
|
70-66 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 Saturday No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5
The Iowa State Cyclones simply have the kind of momentum that's going to carry them to a Big 12 Championship Saturday. They have won their first two games over Texas and Oklahoma by two points each while getting it done in the closing seconds.
Kansas had a much easier route to the title game, beating TCU and Baylor to get here. But the Jayhawks are not a very deep team, so playing their 3rd game in 3 days will be tougher for them than it will be for the Cyclones, who have a deep bench.
The Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Iowa State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|
03-14-15 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia Southern -3 |
Top |
43-44 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -3
Georgia Southern (21-8) fits one of my favorite systems Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe (21-11). The Eagles have not played since March 7th, meaning they'll be well-rested and ready to go.
The same can not be said for the Warhawks, who played yesterday in a 77-59 victory over South Alabama. Not only will the Warhawks be the less prepared team, they'll also be the more tired team after playing the second of a back-to-back.
The Warhawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Georgia Southern is 15-7-2 ATS in its last 24 games overall. Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.
|
03-13-15 |
Florida v. Kentucky -13 |
|
49-64 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -13
The Kentucky Wildcats are on a mission to go undefeated this season. That will keep them plenty motivated in the SEC Tournament. I like their chances of rolling the Florida Gators today, similar to their 67-50 victory over the Gators a week ago.
I like backing teams who are rested like Kentucky against teams on no rest like Florida who covered the day before. The Wildcats received a bye in the SEC Tournament, while the Gators had to play Alabama yesterday.
Florida is 3-10 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. The Gators are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. The Wildcats are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Take Kentucky Friday.
|
03-13-15 |
La Salle v. Davidson -9 |
|
66-67 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -9
The Davidson Wildcats have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They managed to win the Atlantic 10 in their first season as members of the conference. That's a pretty impressive feat considering the A-10 just gets stronger every year.
What I really like about this play is that Davidson is rested after receiving a bye due to winning the conference. Meanwhile, LaSalle is playing the second of a back-to-back after beating UMass yesterday. I'll take the more fresh, more prepared team in the Wildcats in this one.
Davidson is 16-3 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season. The Wildcats are 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. The Explorers are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 vs. Atlantic 10. The Wildcats are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. Roll with Davidson Friday.
|
03-13-15 |
Michigan v. Wisconsin -13.5 |
Top |
60-71 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -13.5
The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game rested and ready to go. This will be their first game of the Big Ten Tournament, while Michigan will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Illinois yesterday.
I'll gladly back the rested team here laying what I believe is a small number given the huge difference in talent on these teams. I also believe the Wolverines are a bit overvalued because they played well yesterday and covered the spread with ease while upsetting the Fighting Illini.
Wisconsin is 12-3 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite over the last 2 seasons. Bet Wisconsin Friday.
|
03-12-15 |
Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -4 |
|
67-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
42 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* SEC Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt -4
The Vanderbilt Commodores (19-12) are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. This young squad has really grown up as the season has gone on, and they will be a dangerous out in the SEC Tournament.
The Commodores have played lights out for over a month now. They are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their two losses during this stretch came by a combined 6 points to Tennessee (74-76) and Florida (47-50). They have gone on the road and beaten Alabama (76-68), Tennessee (73-65) and Ole Miss (86-77) over this span as well.
Tennessee (15-15) couldn't be playing a whole lost worse heading into the SEC Tournament. It is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall. That includes an 18-point home loss to LSU, an 18-point home loss to Kentucky, an 8-point home loss to Vanderbilt, a 17-point road loss at Florida, and an 11-point home loss to South Carolina. Give me the hot team and the small number. Roll with Vanderbilt Thursday.
|
03-12-15 |
Northwestern v. Indiana -3.5 |
|
56-71 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5
The Indiana Hoosiers (19-12) have nearly played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament down the stretch. They have lost three in a row and are currently listed as the final team in the big dance on ESPN Joe Lunardi's "Last 4 In" list.
Without question, the Hoosiers need a win over Northwestern (15-16) to get in. There's also no question that the Hoosiers are the better team. However, due to their poor finish, coupled with the Wildcats' solid finish, the Hoosiers are shorter favorites than they should be in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament.
Adding fuel to the fire for Indiana is the fact that it will be out for revenge form a 65-72 loss at Northwestern on February 25th just two weeks ago. The Wildcats shot 51.0% from the field in that game. Well, that contest was at home for Northwestern, and this one will be at a neutral site.
Northwestern is 20-43 ATS in its last 63 games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in. Indiana is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season. The Hoosiers are 9-2 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover over the last 2 seasons. Bet Indiana Thursday.
|
03-12-15 |
Central Florida v. East Carolina -3 |
Top |
80-81 |
Loss |
-106 |
39 h 55 m |
Show
|
20* AAC Thursday No-Brainer on East Carolina -3
East Carolina (13-18) has been a covering machine down the stretch and one that I have backed with regularity. In fact, the Pirates are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They even beat the likes of Cincinnati (50-46) as 10.5-point dogs, Memphis (64-53) as 5.5-point dogs during this stretch.
They also beat UCF (12-17) in both meetings over this span. They won 67-49 at home over the Knights and 71-66 on the road. I look for them to cap off the 3-0 season sweep and easily cover this 3-point spread today.
UCF has been atrocious down the stretch. It is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. It lost 65-75 at home to Memphis as 8-point dogs, 60-83 at Cincinnati as 15.5-point dogs, 66-71 at home to ECU as 2-point favorites, and 45-74 at South Florida as 1-point road favorites.
ECU is 7-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this year. The Knights are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Pirates. Take East Carolina Thursday.
|
03-12-15 |
Michigan v. Illinois -3 |
Top |
73-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
35 h 25 m |
Show
|
25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -3
This is easily my favorite play in the conference tournaments up to this point. The Illinois Fighting Illini (19-12) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and desperately need a win or two in the conference tournament to get in.
In fact, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Fighting Illini as the second team on the "Next Four Out" list, so they have some work to do. I look for them to come out highly motivated in this game against Michigan (15-15) as a result.
The Big Ten Tournament will essentially be a home venue for the Fighting Illini as it will be played in Chicago, Illinois. That extra support from the home fans should certainly help their cause, but I think the way they are playing coming in is big, too.
Illinois has gone 6-4 in its last 10 games overall with its only four losses coming to Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue. Three of those losses came by 8 points or less, and three of them also came on the road. Four of their wins have come by double-digits, including a 64-52 triumph over Michigan on January 12th.
While Illinois is finally healthy with leading scorer Rayvonte Rice recently returning, Michigan has been banged up all season and continues to be without its top two players in Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr. These injuries have caught up to the Wolverines down the stretch as they have gone 2-7 in their last nine games overall.
Michigan is 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons. Illinois is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Fighting Illini. Bet Illinois Thursday.
|
03-11-15 |
Rice v. North Texas -1 |
|
82-54 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on North Texas -1
The North Texas Mean Green (14-16) should be a much heavier favorite today against the Rice owls (11-19). I'll gladly take advantage and back the Mean Green in what I fully expect to be a blowout in the opening round of the C-USA Tournament.
To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. North Texas is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Rice. It won 75-65 at home and 66-63 on the road in the two meetings this season.
The Mean Green shot 56.6% in the home win while the Owls shot 15-of-27 (55.6%) from 3-point range, yet the Mean Green still won that game by 10 points. North Texas also shot 50.0% in the 3-point road win. This is simply a terrible matchup for the Owls.
The Mean Green Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. North Texas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. Roll with North Texas Wednesday.
|
03-11-15 |
TCU v. Kansas State -1.5 |
Top |
67-65 |
Loss |
-106 |
18 h 24 m |
Show
|
20* Big 12 Wednesday No-Brainer on Kansas State -1.5
The Kansas State Wildcats (15-16) will have a decisive home-court advantage over TCU (17-14) in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament Wednesday. This tournament is being played in Kansas City, Missouri as it is every year.
The Wildcats impressed me quite a bit down the stretch. They won their final three home games against the top three teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa State, so they are playing very well coming in.
TCU ended the season on a three-game losing streak, including a 13-point home loss to Iowa State and a 12-point road loss at Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs went just 4-14 in Big 12 play this season. Two of their wins came against conference bottom feeder Texas Tech, while the other two were at home against Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
Kansas State is 5-1 against TCU in six meetings as Big 12 opponents. The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home. Bet Kansas State Wednesday.
|
03-11-15 |
Charlotte v. Middle Tennessee State |
|
60-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 54 m |
Show
|
15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte PK
The Charlotte 49ers are certainly a team I've had my eye on this season due to their impressive non-conference play. They have been a covering machine here down the stretch, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Middle Tennessee couldn't have had a much worse finish to the season, and it continues to be overvalued here. The Blue Raiders are 2-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are 4-7 straight up during this stretch with their four wins coming against mostly conference bottom feeders.
Charlotte has impressed me against some good teams during its 6-3 ATS run. It only lost by 4 at Old Dominion as 8.5-point dogs, by 5 at UTEP as 8-point dogs, and by 1 at home to LA Tech as 4.5-point dogs. Those are arguably the three best teams in the conference, and the 49ers went toe-to-toe with them.
The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. The Blue Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Middle Tennessee is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Take Charlotte Wednesday.
|
03-10-15 |
Wisconsin Green Bay +4 v. Valparaiso |
|
44-54 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
15* Horizon League Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin-Green Bay +4
Wisconsin-Green Bay (24-7) and Valparaiso (27-5) have been the two best teams in the Horizon League all season. It's fitting that they'll be meeting in the conference championship game tonight, and I look for another tightly-contested battle.
The two regular season meetings both went right down to the wire. Green Bay won 50-51 at home, while Valpo won 63-59 at home. As you can see, the two were decided by a combined 5 points. There's a good chance this 4-point spread comes into play again in the 3rd meeting, but I'm only taking the points for some insurance as I expect the Phoenix to win outright.
Valpo had a key injury happen in the semifinals when it lost Tevonn Walker to a knee injury. Walker (10.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg) is doubtful to play tonight. He was the only reason they beat Green Bay at home in their last meeting. He scored 20 points as one of only two Valpo players in double figures. He attacked the rim and made plays, but without him the Crusaders just aren't nearly as strong.
"Everybody has to step up. There's not one guy on our team that can replace what Tevonn gives us defensively and offensively," leading scorer Alec Peters said. "You have to fight even harder when your teammate goes down."
The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Valpo is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. The Crusaders are 3-11 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three years. Green Bay is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 road games with a total set of 120 to 129.5 points. Take Green Bay Tuesday.
|
03-09-15 |
Northern Illinois +6.5 v. Akron |
|
52-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* MAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois +6.5
Northern Illinois is certainly a sleeper in the MAC Tournament. This is a team I have had my eye on quite a bit down the stretch as one that could make a deep run in the conference tournament with the way they have been playing of late.
The Huskies are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, but their solid play extends back even further. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They only lost by 4 at WMU as 6-point dogs and by 2 at CMU as 10.5-point dogs. They beat Toledo by 2 as 11-point road dogs, CMU by 18 as 4.5-point home dogs, WMU by 2 as 1-point home favorites, and Ball State by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites.
Akron is not playing well at all coming in and should not be a 6.5-point favorite here. It is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming at home against Ohio. Injuries have been a big reason for the poor play. The Zips are expected to be without their top two scorers tonight in Pat Forsythe (10.7 ppg) and Noah Robotham (9.9 ppg), who have each missed some time down the stretch.
NIU is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. NIU is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Huskies. Take Northern Illinois Monday.
|
03-08-15 |
Illinois State v. Northern Iowa -5 |
|
60-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -5
The Northern Iowa Panthers (29-3) are showing solid value as only 5-point favorites Sunday in the Missouri Valley Championship Game. They would have been bigger favorites today had Illinois State (21-11) not upset Wichita State yesterday, which has the Redbirds way overvalued coming in.
This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least. The Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Redbirds, winning by 19 and 13 points at home, as well as 1-point on the road. That's an average victory of 11 points per game in the last three meetings.
The Redbirds are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. The Panthers are 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 vs. Missouri Valley. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Northern Iowa Sunday.
|
03-07-15 |
Iowa State -3 v. TCU |
|
89-76 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -3
Iowa State (21-8) is going to the NCAA Tournament. TCU (17-13) is not. So Iowa State has a lot to play for as far as seeding. A win would put the Cyclones in the No. 3 seed most likely which is a good spot for them. If they lost they'll drop to a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, which would put them up against a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16. They are motivated for seeding reasons, obviously.
The Cyclones are 5-0 in their last five meetings with TCU. They have won by 17, 11, 15, 34 and 13 points, so none of the five meeting were even close. They have won by an average of 18 points per game, and all they have to do is win by 4 to cover this small spread Saturday.
TCU is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The Horned Frogs are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons. TCU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 3 seasons. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|
03-07-15 |
Northwestern v. Iowa -11.5 |
Top |
52-69 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -11.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes (20-10) are going to be in the NCAA Tournament. While that fact might keep them less motivated than they would be otherwise, they are still going to have every reason to be motivated Saturday morning.
The Hawks want revenge for their overtime loss to Northwestern by a final of 66-61 on January 15th about two weeks ago. They also want to perform well on Senior Night. Those two factors have me knowing that they'll be motivated, and as long as they've motivated, they'll have no problem covering the 11.5-point spread here.
The Wildcats are 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1997. Iowa is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997.
The Hawkeyes are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Iowa is 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a S.U. win. Basically, if Iowa would have beaten Northwestern in the first meeting I wouldn't be on them as much. But the fact that they lost keeps them motivated. Bet Iowa Saturday.
|
03-06-15 |
Bradley v. Northern Iowa -14.5 |
|
46-71 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -15
Favorites of 6 points or more who come in on at least one day of rest are 124-78 (61.4%) ATS against opponents who are coming in off an ATS win and on no days of rest. This situation has been a big money maker since 2006, and I'm going to follow it today.
Northern Iowa is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game this season. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring
|
03-05-15 |
Bradley v. Drake +1 |
Top |
52-50 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +1
The Drake Bulldogs (9-21) take on the Bradley Braves (8-23) in a No. 7 vs. No. 10 battle in the opening round of the Missouri Valley Tournament tonight. Both teams have poor records, but I certainly like the way the Bulldogs are playing in comparison to the Braves coming in.
While Drake is just 6-12 SU in MVC play this year, it is 10-6-2 ATS. It has recent wins over Missouri State (73-48), Bradley (60-54), Southern Illinois (63-61), Evansville (70-65) and Bradley (69-57). As you can see, the Bulldogs have swept the season series with the Braves, yet they are underdogs in the third and final meeting.
Bradley is 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. It has rarely been competitive, too, losing by 5 to Loyola, by 6 to Drake, by 13 to Illinois State, by 17 to Northern Iowa, by 3 to Missouri State and by 8 to Indiana State with three of those losses coming at home.
Bradley is 1-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Braves are 1-9 ATS in all road games in tournament games over the past three seasons. Drake is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bulldogs are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Bet Drake Thursday.
|
03-04-15 |
Nebraska v. Illinois -8 |
Top |
57-69 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 3 m |
Show
|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -8
This game has everything you want about a GAME OF THE YEAR selection. The Illinois Fighting Illini have numerous reasons to be motivated, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers have nothing to play for at this point and appear to have packed it in.
Illinois is currently listed on the "First Four Out" list by ESPN's Joe Lunardi in terms of the NCAA Tournament. It obviously cannot afford to lose this game if its wants to go dancing. That is the most obvious reason the Illini will be motivated.
Another is the fact that this is Senior Night for the Illini. They have three senior starters in leading scorer Rayvonte Rice (16.3 ppg), Ahmad Starks (8.2 ppg) and Nnanna Egwu (6.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg). These players will go the extra mile to get these seniors one final home win.
The third and final reason the Illini will be motivated is because they want revenge from a 43-53 loss at Nebraska back on January 11th. Rice did not play in that game as he was out with an injury, and the Illini shot just 27.3% from the field to hand the Huskers the victory. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with four of those victories coming by 9 points or more.
Nebraska is one of the worst road teams in college basketball. It is just 1-10 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 10.5 points per game. It has lost eight straight road games with seven of those losses coming by 8 points or more, and six by 11 or more.
Illinois is 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.7 points per game. The Fighting Illini bounce back from three straight losses at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State and at Iowa with an emphatic 86-60 home win over Northwestern last time out. They are clearly battle-tested coming into this game after playing such a brutal schedule. They had won four straight prior to that 3-game skid against the Big Ten's best.
Nebraska really does appear to have quit. It has lost six straight coming into this game with five of those losses coming by double-digits. That includes back-to-back embarrassments at home to Iowa 46-74 and at Ohio State 57-81. Players just aren't seeing eye-to-eye with head coach Tim Miles right now.
Illinois is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of its last game. The Cornhuskers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Nebraska is 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season. The Illini are 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997. Bet Illinois Wednesday.
|
03-04-15 |
Duquesne v. Fordham -4 |
Top |
81-66 |
Loss |
-106 |
19 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Fordham -4
I believe I've found an absolute gem tonight in the Fordham Rams (9-18). They take on the Duquesne Dukes (10-17) in what appears to be a meaningless game late in the season. But I have no doubt the Rams will be the more motivated team, and they have clearly shown that here of late.
Fordham is 4-3 SU in its last seven games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games, yet it continues to get no respect from the books. It has blowout home wins over Saint Louis (83-65), St. Joseph's (69-55) and LaSalle (63-48), while also beating George Mason (80-68) on the road for its four wins during this stretch.
The Rams have been just as impressive in the losses. They only lost at UMass (74-82) as 9.5-point dogs, at Richmond (71-73) as 13.5-point dogs and at home against UMass (72-78) as 7-point dogs for their other three covers during this stretch. Their only non-cover was a 57-76 loss at Davidson as 15.5-point dogs. Well, Davidson is one of the best teams in the A-10.
Duquesne is one of the worst. It is just 5-11 in conference play this season, and it has been blown out on the road time and time again. In fact, the Dukes are 1-10 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.1 points per game.
The Dukes have lost each of their last 10 road games with the last nine coming by 8 points or more. They lost at St. Bonaventure by 17, at LaSalle by 15, at UMass by 8, at Davidson by 26, at Richmond by 31, at George Washington by 15, at Saint Louis by 9, at Dayton by 26, and at Robert Morris by 16 in their last nine road games, respectively.
Home-court advantage has been pretty big in this series. The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings. This will be Senior Night for Fordham since it's the last home game of the season for the Rams, so that will add to the motivation for them tonight to get a win for their seniors.
Fordham is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Duquesne is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three years. The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Add to that that the Dukes have lost nine straight road games by 8 points or more, and we have a perfect 28-0 system backing the Rams tonight. Take Fordham Wednesday.
|
03-03-15 |
Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -1.5 |
Top |
63-65 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1.5
The Northern Illinois Huskies (12-15) are way undervalued right now due to their losing record on the season. Well, they have been playing their best basketball of the season coming into this one, and I look for that to continue tonight against Western Michigan (17-11).
The Huskies will be highly motivated for their seniors as this is Senior Night. Well, three of the Huskies' top six scorers are seniors, so it will mean more to this team than most. Anthony Johnson (10.8 ppg), Jordan Threloff (8.2 ppg) and Aaron Armstead (7.3 ppg) are all seniors.
Northern Illinois will also be motivated to avenge not only a narrow 65-69 road loss to Western Michigan on February 14th, but also several close losses in a row in this series. The Huskies have lost 10 in a row to the Broncos, but the last three have all come by 5 points or less. I look for them to put an end to this skid tonight.
Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. It beat Ball State 75-63 as 5-point home favorites, only lost to WMU by 4 as 6-point road dogs, lost to CMU by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs, lost to EMU by 8 as 2-point home favorites, beat Toledo by 2 as 11-point road dogs, and topped CMU by 18 as 4.5-point home dogs in its last six games overall. Toledo and CMU are two of the best teams in the MAC, so beating both of them is no small feat.
The Huskies are 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. NIU is 13-2 ATS after covering 3 of its last 4 against the spread over the last two seasons. The Huskies are 19-9 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. NIU is 19-6-4 ATS in its last 29 MAC games. Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.
|
03-02-15 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State -5 |
Top |
70-77 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State -5
The Iowa State Cyclones are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight for a couple of different reasons. I believe the extra effort they'll be laying on the line to get this win will be enough to cover this generous 5-point spread against Oklahoma.
Iowa State has blown late leads in back-to-back games to lose to Baylor and Kansas State. It now returns home for Senior Night, which is another reason these players will be extra motivated. Those two factors will be huge for the Cyclones.
Another is the fact that Iowa State wants revenge from its 83-94 road loss at Oklahoma in the first meeting of the season. The home team has won six straight in this series with all six victories coming by 5 points or more.
The Cyclones have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. They had their 21-game home winning streak snapped against Baylor in their last home game. That loss dropped them to 14-1 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 16.5 points per game.
Iowa State is 14-2 ATS in March home games since 1997. The Cyclones are 14-3 ATS in home games off a close loss by 3 points or less since 1997. The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Oklahoma is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Ames. Bet Iowa State Monday.
|
03-01-15 |
Oregon State v. California -3 |
Top |
56-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California -3
The Cal Golden Bears need a big finish to the season if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They'll likely need to win their final three games and their first game in the conference tournament to have any chance. It starts today with a home win over Oregon State.
Cal is 16-12 on the season. It has gone 10-7 at home this year. It will be up against an Oregon State team that is 2-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in all road games in 2014-15. The Beavers couldn't have been worse on the road this year. They are 1-7 in Pac-12 road games with all seven losses coming by double-digits.
Cal has won each of its last four meetings with Oregon State. The Beavers are 1-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season. Cal if 14-3 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less after 15-plus games over the last 3 years. Oregon State is 0-7 ATS in a road game when the total is 129.5 or less this season. Bet Cal Sunday.
|
02-28-15 |
Arizona v. Utah -1.5 |
|
63-57 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -1.5
In the biggest game of the season in the Pac-12 to date, the Arizona Wildcats (25-3) travel to face the Utah Utes (22-5) Saturday night. I'll gladly side with the home team laying the small number, especially considering the Utes will be out for revenge from their 51-69 loss at Arizona in their first meeting this season.
It's Senior Night in Utah, which will only add to its motivation in this one. The Utes have been simply unbeatable at home. They are a perfect 16-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 26.1 points per game in the process.
In fact, the Utes have won 15 of their 16 home games by double-digits with the only exception behind a 1-point win over Wichita State. They have won all eight Pac-12 home games by 15 points or more with wins over USC (by 24), UCLA (by 32), Colorado (by 25), Washington State (by 22), Washington (by 21), Stanford (by 16), California (by 15) and Arizona State (by 42).
Utah is 11-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. The Utes are 11-1 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last two seasons. Utah is 38-12-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall. Roll with Utah Saturday.
|
02-28-15 |
Mississippi State +9.5 v. South Carolina |
|
68-81 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +9.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks (13-14) have no business being 9.5-point favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-16) today. I'll gladly side with the road underdogs in this one in a game they can clearly win outright.
The Gamecocks have been the single most overrated team in the SEC this season. That's evident by their 4-11 SU & 2-13 ATS record in conference play this year. Three of their four SEC wins came by 6 points or less, meaning they have only beating one SEC opponent by more than 9.5 points.
Mississippi State, on the other hand, has been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season. It is 5-10 SU and 8-6 ATS in conference play. In fact, it has gone 8-4-1 ATS in its last 13 SEC contests. That includes outright road wins as underdogs against Auburn (78-71), Tennessee (71-66) and Missouri (77-74), as well as narrow road losses to Ole Miss (73-79) as 12.5-point dogs and 70-74 at Texas A&M as 10-point dogs.
Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (S CAROLINA) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 79-34 (69.9%) ATS since 1997.
South Carolina is 0-7 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games this season. The Gamecocks are 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games since 1997. The Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. The Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. South Carolina is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 SEC games. These five trends combine for a 39-3 system backing the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State Saturday.
|
02-28-15 |
Virginia Tech +20 v. Virginia |
Top |
57-69 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +20
I have gone against Virginia each of its last five games. Its best player in Justin Anderson has been out each of the last five games. Anderson is the second-leading scorer on the team at 13.4 ppg. He also shoots 48.0 percent from the field, 48.4 percent from 3-point range, and 80.6 percent from the free throw line. Starting point guard London Perrantes is questionable to play today as well after missing the last game with a concussion.
The results of fading the Cavaliers in these five games have been great. They are 1-4 ATS in those five contests. They only beat NC State by 4 as 7-point road favorites, Wake Forest by 1 as 18-point home favorites, Pitt by 12 as 12.5-point home favorites, and FSU by 10 as 15-point home favorites.
The Cavaliers did cover their last game in a 70-34 blowout win at Wake Forest, but that result is what has them way overvalued here as 20-point favorites against VA Tech. Also Virginia's 26-1 record and No. 2 ranking has it overvalued. This team just isn't nearly as strong without Anderson and possibly Perrantes.
VA Tech took Duke to overtime in a 5-point loss as 165-point dogs last time out. The Hokies have covered plenty of big numbers on the road this season, losing by 15 at Louisville as 22-point dogs, by 15 at UNC as 22-point dogs, by 3 at Wake Forest as 8-point dogs, and by 2 at Syracuse as 11-point dogs. They also nearly upset Virginia at home on January 25th, losing 47-50 as 16.5-point dogs. They will be out for revenge on the Cavalliers today, and they are fully capable of competing with them.
Plays on road teams road team (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two slow-down teams averaging 55 or fewer shots per game after 15+ games, after two straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 77-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
VA Tech is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound foes by 4-plus per game after 15-plus games this season. The Hokies are 6-0 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons. The Cavaliers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|
02-26-15 |
Oregon State v. Stanford -8 |
|
48-75 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 BAILOUT on Stanford -8
Stanford (17-9) is currently the first team on the "First Four Out" list that ESPN's Joe Lunardi puts out. There's no question that teams follow his bracket predictions, and you can bet the Cardinal know that they need to impress down the stretch to get into the Big Dance.
Following back-to-back road losses to Utah and Colorado, the Cardinal responded with a 72-61 home win over California last time out. They improved to 12-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game. Their only two home losses this season have come against the top two teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona and Utah.
Oregon State (17-10) stands little to no chance of making the big dance. It is just 2-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in all road games this season, true and neutral. It is getting outscored by an average of 8.7 points per game away from home as well.
The Beavers have really been poor on the road in conference play. In fact, they are just 1-6 in Pac-12 road games with all six of those losses coming by double-digits. They lost at Oregon 59-71, at Washington 43-56, at Arizona State 55-73, at Arizona 34-57, at UCLA 59-75, and at USC 55-68.
Oregon State is 2-9 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams with a +4 margin or better over the last two seasons. The Beavers are 4-12 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons. Stanford is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference opponent over the last two seasons. It is winning by 13.1 points per game in this spot. The Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Roll with Stanford Thursday.
|
02-26-15 |
Rutgers +15 v. Purdue |
|
85-92 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +15
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now, while the Purdue Boilermakers could not possibly be more overvalued. This has created the perfect storm and a golden opportunity to back the Scarlet Knights as massive 15-point road underdogs against the Boilermakers.
Purdue has gone 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall. The betting public has obviously taken notice and will be quick to back them again. Rutgers, meanwhile, has lost 11 straight while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.
I look for the Scarlet Knights to actually be motivated in this game considering they want revenge from a 51-61 home loss to Purdue on January 12th exactly two weeks ago. The revenge factor will help them get back up off the mat. Purdue, meanwhile, is in a letdown spot off a big win at Indiana last time out, and with a game at Ohio State on deck. The Boilermakers won't bring 100% focus to this game tonight.
Plays on an underdog (RUTGERS) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1997. This trend just goes to show that it's usually a wise move to back a team on an ATS cold streak against a team on an ATS hot streak.
Plus, the Boilermakers aren't the type of team to blow out opponents on a regular basis. In fact, only one of their 10 Big Ten wins has come by more than 12 points. The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in road games off two straight games with 12 or less assists over the last two seasons. Rutgers is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games following a loss by 15 points or more. The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Rutgers Thursday.
|
02-25-15 |
Fresno State v. Wyoming -6.5 |
|
64-59 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -6.5
The Wyoming Cowboys (21-6) should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-15). I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this generous price as I fully expect a double-digit victory in the Cowboys' favor.
Wyoming is 16-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game. Fresno State is just 3-12 SU & 2-10 ATS in all road games this season. Those records alone should have you all over the Cowboys tonight, but there's an even better reason to like them.
There may not be one player more important to his team in the entire country than Larry Nance Jr. The Cowboys' forward leads the team in scoring (16.3 ppg) and rebounding (7.2 rpg) by a wide margin while shooting 54.8% from the field and 78.7% from the line.
Nance Jr. has been out of the lineup the past four games with a small case of Mono, and it's no wonder they have struggled. They are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS without him. They lost badly at Air Force by 23 and at San Diego State by 26 in their first two games without him.
They did beat San Jose State by 17 at home, but were 18.5-point favorites. They also rallied from 14 down at half to beat Nevada by 6 on the road. Getting that extra time without him should help these players, and now this will be an even more complete team when he returns.
Fresno State is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread this season. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season. These two trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Cowboys. Bet Wyoming Wednesday.
|
02-25-15 |
Baylor v. Iowa State -6.5 |
|
79-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -6.5
The Iowa State Cyclones (20-6) are a half-game out of first place behind the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 after back-to-back road wins at Oklahoma State and Texas. They are obviously highly motivated to put and end to Kansas' run of 10 straight conference titles.
They will also be motivated to avenge a 73-74 loss at Baylor in their first meeting of the season back on January 14th. They lost on a game-winning jumper by Kenny Chery with 4.7 seconds to go after taking the lead on a 3-pointer just seconds earlier. They have not forgotten.
"A lot of people are not realizing how big that loss was, that hurt," guard Naz Long said. "That's definitely a game that we want to get back at home. We know we have to basically win out in order to win this league, and I feel like we're right there. So this is a huge game."
Iowa State has only lost at home twice since Fred Hoiberg arrived in Ames three years ago. It has compiled a 61-4 home record since 2011-12, winning the last 21 by an average of 15.2 points. The Cyclones are 14-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 18.3 points per game.
Iowa State is a perfect 12-0 at home against Baylor all-time in this series. The Bears are 0-9 ATS in their last nine trips to Ames. They have lost each of their last seven road meetings with the Cyclones by 8 points or more. The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings as well. Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.
|
02-25-15 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Drake -2 |
|
80-75 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2
The Drake Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now. But because they are 9-19 on the season, they aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers. We'll take advantage and back them as small home favorites against Loyola-Chicago tonight.
The Bulldogs are a sensational 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The only three games where they didn't cover were on the road. The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. They beat Indiana State by 6 as 3-point dogs, lost to Illinois State by 8 as 9-point dogs, beat Evansville by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, beat Southern Illinois by 2 as 1-point dogs, beat Bradley by 6 as 2-point favorites, and crushed Missouri State by 35 last time out as 3-point favorites.
Loyola-Chicago may be 16-12 on the season, but it did most of its damage in the first half. It has been a completely different story in Missouri Valley play here of late. Indeed, the Ramblers are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. Their poor play is mostly due to their best lpayer being out.
Leading scorer Milton Doyle (11.5 ppg) has missed the past 11 games with an injury, which coincides with their 3-8 run. Doyle shoots 49.2% from the field and 46.0% from 3-point range, so not having him has been a huge blow to the offense. The Ramblers haven't topped 65 points in any of their last 13 games. They've been held to 60 or fewer in 10 of those as well.
Drake only lost 47-50 at Loyola-Chicago as 12-point underdogs in their first meeting back on January 14th. That was the last game that Doyle played in where he got injured. The Bulldogs only shot 38.3% while the Ramblers shot 51.2%, yet they only lost by 3. Drake will be out for revenge at home this time around, and I look for it to get it considering both teams are going in opposite directions right now.
Drake is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss against an opponent this season. Drake is 6-0 ATS in home games off a game where they covered the spread this season. The home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. Add in that Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games overall, and we have a perfect 30-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Take Drake Wednesday.
|
02-25-15 |
Virginia v. Wake Forest +7.5 |
Top |
70-34 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* College Hoops DOG OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +7.5
I have successfully faded Virginia in each of its last four games, and I'll do so again tonight. It's no coincidence that this team is failing to meet expectations from oddsmakers considering it has been without its best player in Justin Anderson each of the past four contests.
Anderson was a preseason All-American candidate and for good reason. He is second on the team in scoring at 13.4 points per game, and he shoots 48.0% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range, and 80.6% from the line. Starting point guard London Perrantes (4.4 assists/game) suffered a broken nose and a concussion in his last game and is questionable to play tonight as well.
Virginia is already overvalued due to its No. 2 ranking and 25-1 record on the season. It is even more magnified without Anderson out. Indeed, the Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They won by 4 at NC State as 7-point favorites, by 1 at home against Wake Forest as 18-point favorites, by 12 at home against Pitt as 12.5-point favorites, and by 10 at home against FSU as 15-point favorites in their last four contests.
As you can see, Wake Forest played the Cavaliers tougher than anyone during this stretch, and as tough as anyone other than Duke, which is the only team to beat Virginia. After losing 61-60 at Virginia as 18-point dogs on February 14th less than two weeks ago, the Demon Deacons know they can play with the Cavaliers, and they'll be out for revenge at home this time around.
Wake is 10-6 at home this season, winning each of its last three home games against VA Tech, NC State and Miami. Virginia is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Demon Deacons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Wake Forest is 12-1 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Virginia, including 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings since 2005. Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.
|
02-24-15 |
Texas A&M +7.5 v. Arkansas |
|
75-81 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* Texas A&M/Arkansas ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Texas A&M +7.5
The Texas A&M Aggies (19-7) are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. I look for them to give the Arkansas Razorbacks (22-5) a run for their money on the road tonight, likely pulling off the upset in the process.
The Aggies have gone 10-4 in SEC action to really put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament. One of those four losses was an overtime loss to Kentucky, which proved what they were capable of. They have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 SEC games as they continue to be undervalued time and time again.
There's no question that the Razorbacks are overvalued right now due to their six-game winning streak coming in. Well, two of their last three wins have come by a combined 5 points over Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and the other was a 15-point win against SEC bottom feeder Missouri as 17-point home favorites.
Texas A&M has some impressive road wins this season. Indeed, it has gone on the road and beaten LSU 67-64 as 5-point dogs, Tennessee 67-61 as 3.5-point dogs, Auburn 71-61 as 2.5-point favorites, and South Carolina 62-52 as 3-point underdogs, among others.
The Razorbacks are in a massive letdown spot here. Not only are they overvalued due to their six-game winning streak, but they also will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against No. 1 Kentucky on Saturday. I don't expect the Razorbacks to give the Aggies their full attention as a result, which will work in our favor here.
Texas A&M beat Arkansas 69-53 as 2-point home underdogs in their lone meeting last season. It has four starters back from that team, which is the biggest reason it is one of the most improved teams in the country. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Take Texas A&M Tuesday.
|
02-22-15 |
Florida State +15.5 v. Virginia |
Top |
41-51 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +15.5
I have successfully faded Virginia in three consecutive games. They failed to cover in a 4-point win at NC State as 7-point favorites, in a 1-point home win over Wake Forest as 18-point favorites, and in a 12-point win over Pitt as 12-point favorites. I'll fade them for a fourth straight games for essentially the same reasons.
Virginia is the No. 2 team in the country and 24-1 on the season. It is overvalued due to that ranking and record, and the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for the injury to their best player, Justin Anderson. He has missed the last three games with a hand injury, and it's no coincidence they failed to cover all three.
Anderson is their second-leading scorer (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), and he shoots 48% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range and 80.6% from the free throw line. He is simply irreplaceable, and the Cavaliers have been lost offensively without him. He is an All-American candidate and one of the most underrated players in the country.
Florida State (15-12) continues to lack the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as 15.5-point underdogs today. All the Seminoles have done here of late is go 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their three losses have come by a combined 13 points in a 4-point loss at UNC as 14.5-point dogs, a 6-point home loss to Clemson as 2-point favorites in their lone non-cover, and a 3-point home loss to Duke as 10.5-point dogs.
The Seminoles have gone on the road and beaten Clemson by 4 as 4.5-point dogs, VA Tech by 8 as 1-point favorites, and Georgia Tech by 4 as 4.5-point dogs. They have also beaten Wake Forest by 6 as 4.5-point favorites, Miami by 1 as 2-point dogs, and Boston College by 9 as 6-point favorites at home during this stretch. In fact, the Seminoles haven't been beaten by more than 13 points in any of their last 18 games.
Virginia did win all three meetings with Florida State last year, but all three came by 13 points or less. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Virginia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game. Bet Florida State Sunday.
|
02-21-15 |
DePaul +15 v. Georgetown |
|
63-68 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +15
The DePaul Blue Demons have been the single-most underrated team in all of the Big East this season in terms of the point spread. That's evidenced by the fact that they are a sensational 11-3 ATS in all Big East games. They have gone 6-8 SU as well and are only getting outscored by 4.9 points per game in conference play. They have only lost by more than 13 points twice in Big East action.
The Blue Demons are once again catching too many points here due to their last performance, coupled with Georgetown's last performance. The betting public wants nothing to do with DePaul off their 27-point loss to Providence, while the public wants everything to do with Georgetown off its 22-point win over St. John's.
Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DEPAUL) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 111-66 (62.7%) ATS since 1997. This trend just goes to show that it's a very profitable move backing big underdogs off a huge ATS loss this time of year.
DePaul only lost by 6 to Georgetown as 7-point home underdogs, 72-78, on January 13th in the first meeting this season. That places the Blue Demons in revenge mode, which I love. DePaul has played Georgetown very tough on the road. It is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Washington DC. The Blue Demons won 60-56 as 11-point dogs last season, only lost by 7 as 13-point dogs in 2013, lost by 11 as 22-point dogs in 2011, and lost by 8 as 17.5-point dogs in 2009.
The Blue Demons are 7-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season. DePaul is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season. These two trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the road team. Also, the Blue Demons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Roll with DePaul Saturday.
|
02-21-15 |
Fordham +15 v. Davidson |
|
57-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Fordham +15
The Davidson Wildcats (18-6) have been going under the radar up to this point. That's evident by the fact that they are 16-5 ATS in all lined games this season. However, I believe the betting public has finally caught on, and now it's time to fade them while they're overvalued as 15-point home favorites over Fordham today.
Davidson is coming off a huge 65-63 road win over George Washington on Wednesday. That fact alone sets it up for a letdown spot here. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face an 8-16 Fordham team, especially with three straight games coming up against Atlantic 10 contenders Rhode Island, GW and VCU in its next three games.
Everyone has been sleeping on Fordham here of late. The Rams have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost to UMass 72-78 as 7-point home dogs, beat St. Louis 83-65 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost to Richmond 71-73 as 13.5-point road dogs, beat St. Joseph's 69-55 as 2-point home dogs, and beat George Mason 80-68 as 5-point road dogs. If that's not an impressive stretch, I don't know what is. But, the oddsmakers still aren't giving them the respect they deserve with the 15-point spread they have set today.
Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (DAVIDSON) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against a home team (DAVIDSON) - a very good team (+8 PPG differential or better) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a close win by 3 points or less are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1997. Bet Fordham Saturday.
|
02-21-15 |
Auburn +26 v. Kentucky |
Top |
75-110 |
Loss |
-114 |
16 h 19 m |
Show
|
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +26
At 26-0 and with the No. 1 ranking in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats could not possibly be more overvalued right now. They are also coming off two straight blowout wins and covers over South Carolina and Tennessee, only adding to the betting public's love for them.
The Wildcats had failed to cover five straight prior to their last two. They only beat Missouri by 16 as 17.5-point favorites, Alabama by 15 as 19-point favorites, Georgia by 11 as 18-point favorites, Florida by 7 as 8-point favorites, and LSU by 2 as 10-point favorites.
Auburn comes in undervalued after having going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. This team has been competitive despite its 12-13 record on the season. It has even gone on the road and beaten LSU 81-77 as 10.5-point dogs and Georgia 69-68 as 11-point dogs in the month of February. In fact, Auburn's last seven losses have all come by 14 points or less. Its largest loss in SEC play was a 20-point loss at Florida.
The Tigers have played the Wildcats very tough in recent years. They are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. They haven't lost by more than 24 to Kentucky in any of the last eight meetings. Five of their last eight losses to Kentucky have come by 10 points or less, including a 64-56 loss to the Wildcats last year. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Kentucky.
Auburn is 10-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games this season. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. They beat LSU and Georgia outright, while only losing to Alabama by 2 and Tennessee by 8. Bet Auburn Saturday.
|
02-21-15 |
Louisiana Tech v. Old Dominion -1 |
|
53-72 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion -1
In one of the most anticipated games in Conference USA this season, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (21-6) travel to face the Old Dominion Monarchs (19-6) on Saturday. I'll gladly side with the home team laying the small number, especially with the way the Monarchs have played at home this season.
Indeed, Old Dominion is a perfect 14-0 straight up at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game. It has beaten the likes of Richmond, VCU, Georgia State and Charlotte at home this year, so it's not like the Monarchs are beating up on a bunch of cupcakes at home.
All six of Louisiana Tech's losses this season have come on the road. It has lost to the likes of LA-Lafeyette, North Texas and UAB on the road this season. It is coming off a hard-fought 83-82 road win at Charlotte on Thursday, making this a tough two-day turnaround.
The Monarchs are coming off a 64-38 win over Southern Miss Thursday, which allowed them to preserve their starters. The Monarchs will be the fresher team as a result, and they'll want this game more. They only lost by 5 at home to LA Tech last year, and now they have four starters back from that team who will want revenge.
The Monarchs are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games. Old Dominion is 12-2 ATS versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. LA Tech is 1-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Monarchs are 6-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons. Combine this 6-0 trend with the fact that they're 14-0 at home this season, and we have a 20-0 system backing the Monarchs. Bet Old Dominion Saturday.
|
02-21-15 |
Iowa State v. Texas -2 |
|
85-77 |
Loss |
-114 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2
The Texas Longhorns want revenge from an 86-89 road loss at Iowa State on January 26th in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting it at home this time around for a couple of different reasons.
Texas comes into this game playing great baseball. It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a final of 69-71 at Oklahoma as 6.5-point dogs. It has beaten Kansas State by 4 on the road, TCU by 23 and Texas Tech by 15 at home for its three wins during this stretch.
Iowa State is unbeatable at home, but it has been a completely different story on the road. The Cyclones are just 5-6 in all road games this season, which includes neutral court games. They have lost four of their last five road games to Oklahoma (by 11), Kansas (by 13), Texas Tech (by 5) and Baylor (by 1). Their only two Big 12 road wins all year came at WVU and at Oklahoma State by a combined 7 points, so they are very close to being 0-6 on the road in conference play.
Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011. Texas is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Iowa State.
Texas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. The Longhorns are 51-25 ATS in home games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse since 1997. Take Texas Saturday.
|
02-21-15 |
Buffalo v. Bowling Green -1.5 |
Top |
68-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green -1.5
The MAC is easily one of the most underrated conferences in the country. Bowling Green (17-7), Kent State (18-8), Akron (17-9), Buffalo (16-9), Central Michigan (19-5) and Toledo (17-9) are all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams. It's a shame that likely only one of these teams will make the big dance.
I've seen Bowling Green play a couple times this year and have been very impressed. I believe it should be a much heavier home favorite today over Buffalo. The Falcons are 10-3 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game.
The reason there is so much value here is because Buffalo is overvalued off its 15-point win at Eastern Michigan, while Bowling Green is undervalued off its 11-point home loss to Miami Ohio. The Falcons had won four straight prior to that contest, including a road win at Central Michigan and a home win over WMU. I look for them to get back to playing the way they were before.
Buffalo is just 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. This team has been overvalued on a regular basis, and it continues to be here Saturday. The Falcons continue lacking the respect they deserve despite going a ridiculous 16-4 ATS in all games this year. Head coach Louis Orr is doing a fine job, and it helps that he returned four starters from last year to this veteran squad.
Buffalo is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover 3 of its last 4 games this season. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five Saturday games. The Falcons are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Falcons. Roll with Bowling Green Saturday.
|
02-21-15 |
Florida v. LSU -4 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on LSU -4
I don't normally like taking teams like LSU who have already beaten their opponent once this season. But, given the circumstances, I'm willing to overlook the revenge factor for Florida and back the Tigers as small 4-point home favorites in the rematch.
LSU not only beat Florida, it dominated, winning 79-61 as 11-point road underdogs on January 20th. I look for a similar beat down in the rematch as the Gators are just in a world of hurt right now, while the Tigers need this win badly.
LSU has lost four of its last six games overall to drop to 18-8 and on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Well, all four losses came by 6 points or less, including a 2-point home loss to Kentucky as 10-point dogs. This is still the second-best team in the SEC in my opinion.
Florida has been overvalued all season due to what it has done in the past. Well, this may be the worst team that Billy Donnovan has ever had. The Gators are just 13-13 on the season, including 9-14 ATS in all lined games.
The biggest reason I'm backing LSU today is because Florida is without its two best players. Leading scorer Michael Frazier II (13.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg) is out with an ankle injury, while second-leading scorer Dorian Finney-Smith (12.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) has recently been suspended and will miss this game. Their next-leading scorer is Eli Carter (8.2 ppg), so they are obviously short-handed today.
LSU is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last 3 seasons. Florida is 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less this season. The Gators are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. These four trends combine for a 34-5 system backing the Tigers. Take LSU Saturday.
|
02-19-15 |
Wisconsin Milwaukee v. Illinois-Chicago -1 |
|
71-60 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois-Chicago -1
This is a battle between two of the worst teams in the Horizon League in the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (10-16) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (7-20). I'll side with the home team laying the small number here for a couple of different reasons.
For starters, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a terrible road team. In fact, it has gone 0-11 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 17.9 points per game. It has lost seven straight road games by double-digits to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 11, Valpo by 25, Oakland by 13, Detroit by 16, Cleveland State by 27, South Dakota by 24, and Arkansas by 30. The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Illinois-Chicago comes into this game playing its best basketball of the season. It has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. That includes impressive outright road wins as underdogs at Detroit (83-73) and Wright State (79-75). It also played Valpo tough in a 5-point loss as a 10-point dog, and Cleveland State tough in an 8-point road loss as 14-point dogs.
The Flames will be out for revenge today from their 65-71 road loss to Milwaukee as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th just three weeks ago. They'll be the more motivated team for sure. Milwaukee could be in a hangover spot here from its tough 55-62 home loss to Valpo last time out in which it blew the game late.
Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days this season. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season. Illinois-Chicago is 9-0 ATS off two straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 50% or higher over the last two seasons. These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Flames. Roll with Illinois-Chicago Thursday.
|
02-19-15 |
Purdue v. Indiana -4 |
|
67-63 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -4
You won't find many teams in the country with a bigger home/away discrepancy than the Indiana Hoosiers. They have not been good at all on the road, going just 3-7 in all games played away from home. Inside Assembly Hall, it has been a completely different story.
Indiana is 15-1 at home this season where it outscoring opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game. It is coming off a 19-point home win over Minnesota on Sunday and I fully expect it to blow out the Purdue Boilermakers today.
The Hoosiers will be out for revenge from their 67-83 loss at Purdue on January 28th. That was yet another blowout win for the home team, which is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in this series, winning by 16, 18 and 28 points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Purdue is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Assembly Hall.
Purdue comes into this game way overvalued due to going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Well, four of those wins came at home, while two were on the road to Big Ten bottom feeders Northwestern and Rutgers. They also lost to Minnesota 58-62 on the road during this stretch. So, this run has been more due to a soft, home-heavy schedule than anything.
Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Matt Painter is 0-6 ATS in road games after being called for 10-plus less fouls than their opponent last game as the coach of Purdue. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Hoosiers. Take Indiana Thursday.
|
02-18-15 |
Northern Iowa v. Loyola-Chicago +8.5 |
|
58-39 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +8.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers (24-2) have certainly been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. However, that's clearly not the case any more as this team is getting respect with their No. 11 national ranking. With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be very tough to live up to.
The Panthers barely covered on Sunday in a 68-57 road win at lowly Missouri State as 10.5-point favorites. Now, they take a big step up in competition against an underrated Loyola-Chicago team that is starting to play some of its best basketball of the season.
The Ramblers have won three of their last four to improve to 16-10 on the season. More impressively, they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They only lost by 11 at Wichita State as 18.5-point dogs, lost by 3 to Illinois State as 3.5-point home dogs, beat Missouri State by 3 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Southern Illinois by 4 as 3.5-point home favorites, and beat Bradley by 5 as 3.5-point road dogs.
I love taking teams in revenge mode after they played the other team tough in the first meeting, but lost. That's the case here as Loyola-Chicago only lost by 9 as 11-point road underdogs to Northern Iowa on January 4th. Now, they are 8.5-point home underdogs in the rematch. That just shows you how overvalued Northern Iowa is because when you factor in 3.5 points for home court, this spread should only be UNI -4 based on the 11-point spread in the first meeting.
Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings between the Panthers and Ramblers dating back to 2005. Northern Iowa is 2-12 ATS after leading its last game by 20 or more points at the half since 1997. The Ramblers are 8-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less this season. Loyola is 14-4 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Roll with Loyola-Chicago Wednesday.
|
02-18-15 |
East Carolina +12 v. Tulsa |
|
58-69 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +12
The East Carolina Pirates have quietly been a covering machine here of late, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers. They are showing excellent value once again tonight as double-digit road underdogs to the reeling Tulsa Godlen Hurricane.
The Pirates have gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost to Tulsa 64-66 as 9.5-point home dogs, to Memphis by 12 as 14.5-point road dogs, beat Cincinnati by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs, lost to UConn by 13 as 14-point road dogs, beat UCF by 18 as 5-point home favorites, beat Memphis by 11 as 5.5-point home dogs, and lost to Temple by 13 as 13-point road dogs.
As you can see, the Pirates have played some of the best teams in the American Athletic down to the wire during this stretch. That includes the 64-66 home loss to Tulsa, which means that the Pirates will be out for revenge in the rematch. They aren't going to lose this game by more than 12 points having only lost to the Golden Hurricane by 2 at home.
Tulsa benefited from a very easy schedule in the first half of the season, and now it has been way overvalued here of late. It is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. That includes back-to-back losses to SMU by 11 at home and to Connecticut by 25 on the road. This team is broken right now, and it won't be fixed in time to put ECU away by 13-plus points tonight.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (E CAROLINA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 60 points or less are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1997. ECU is 10-2 ATS in February games over the last two years. The Pirates are 6-0 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this season, coming back to win by an average of 8.7 points per game in this spot. ECU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. loss. The Pirates are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Pirates. Take East Carolina Wednesday.
|
02-18-15 |
Virginia Tech +12 v. Miami (FL) |
Top |
52-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +12
Buzz Williams has done an excellent job in his first season at Virginia Tech. This team was picked to finished at or near the bottom of the ACC coming into the season. While it won't show up in the win-loss column, the Hokies have been ultra competitive in conference play.
Despite going 2-10 straight up within the ACC, the Hokies are a very profitable 8-4 ATS. They upset Pitt and Georgia Tech at home, while also going on the road and covering against Louisville, UNC, Wake Forest and Syracuse. They only lost by 3 at Wake Forest as 8-point dogs and by 2 at Syracuse as 11-point dogs. They only lost by 3 at home to Virginia as 16.5-point dogs as well.
The Miami Hurricanes are 16-9 this season, but they have really struggled here of late. They are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. That includes a 20-point home loss to Georgia Tech as 9.5-point favorites, an 8-point home loss to Louisville as 4.5-point dogs, a 1-point loss at FSU as 2-point favorites, and a 2-point loss at Wake Forest as 2.5-point favorites.
What really stood out to me when looking into this game is the rest situation. Miami played on Monday in an 89-86 (double OT) road win at Boston College. It will have just one day off in between games, and the double OT factor will only magnify the short rest. VA Tech will have had three days off in between games since losing at Clemson on Saturday.
Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 120-64 (65.2%) ATS since 1997. Miami is 10-19 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.
Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Hokies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. VA Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, which have all been decided by 7 points or less, and by a combined 11 points. These three trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Hokies. Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.
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