10-29-14 |
Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -4 |
|
95-107 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Southeast Division ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4
The Miami Heat will be out to prove that they do not need Lebron James to compete for an Eastern Conference Title. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season, starting with their opener against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.
The Heat signed Chris Bosh to a max deal to be their go-to guy this season. Go back and check his stats in Toronto to find out what he is capable of as the lead guy, because he is still in his prime and will put up huge numbers this year.
Dwyane Wade wants to play in all 82 games to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, and that he can be a lead guy as well. I also love the addition of Luol Deng, who is a real team player who can contribute a lot on both end of the floor.
Washington was one of the biggest surprise teams in the league last year as it came out of nowhere and won a playoff series for the first time since 2004-05. Now, I believe the Wizards are way overvalued heading into 2014-15 because of it, especially due to key losses and injuries.
Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league. He defends the opposing team's best player, and he also knocked down a ton of 3's for the Wizards last season. Ariza is now a key cog in Houston, replacing the departed Chandler Parsons in the Rockets' starting lineup.
Washington is expected to be without starting shooting guard Bradley Beal, starting forward Nene, and top reserve Martell Webster for the opener. In Nene, Beal and Ariza, the Wizards will be down three starters from last year. They simply aren't going to live up to the hype in the opener due to all of these injuries and personnel losses.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Miami. The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Miami has won each of its last four home meetings with Washington. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|
10-29-14 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 |
|
102-109 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 14 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5
The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year. They won a franchise-record 48 games and the Atlantic Division title. They should be just as good if not better in 2014-15, and I believe they are undervalued here as only a 4.5-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks.
Kyle Lowry signed a new $48 million deal this offseason after averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds last year. DeMar DeRozan was an All-Start. Toronto kept most of its roster in tact, but it also added Lou Williams and James Johnson to the team. They'll serve as great role players as Williams is instant offense off the bench, while Johnson can do a little bit of everything.
Atlanta did make its seventh straight postseason appearance last year, which is the longest active streak in the Eastern Conference. However, they barely snuck in, and I don't believe they did enough this offseason to improve their team. All they did was get John Salmons and Thobo Sefolosha, who are two players far past their primes who won't contribute much.
The Raptors looked as good as anyone in the preseason as they put together a league-best 6-1 record. I look for them to carry over that success in the regular season. I truly believe that they are the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference this year and fully capable of giving any team a run for their money.
The home team went a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings between the Hawks and Raptors last season with the home team winning by 5 or more points in all four games. I look for Toronto to make it five straight wins and covers for the home team in this series. Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.
|
10-28-14 |
Dallas Mavericks +4 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
100-101 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* Mavericks/Spurs NBA Season Opener on Dallas +4
I look for the Dallas Mavericks to spoil the ring ceremony of the San Antonio Spurs tonight and to win this opener outright. I'll be taking the points for some added insurance.
Dallas wants revenge after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs last year. They played the Spurs tougher than anyone in the playoffs, and I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into 2014-15.
I absolutely love what Dallas did in the offseason. It brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive force who helped them win the NBA Title a few years back. It also signed Chandler Parsons from the Rockets, who is one of the most efficient players in the NBA who can do a little bit of everything. Jameers Nelson, Devin Harris & Raymond Felton will all help combine to replace Jose Calderon at the point.
I don't put a ton of stock into the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Spurs went 2-5 in the preseason. They even lost overseas to Alba Berlin in their preseason opener. I look for them to start the regular season slow as well as they just won't have that same fire they did last year after losing the NBA Finals the year before.
One big development is that Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, won't be suiting up tonight. He averaged 23.7 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 68.6 percent in the final three games against the Heat. He is dealing with an eye infection that has kept him out for over two weeks. Leonard is worth the most wins above replacement of all the Spurs this season.
Leonard isn't the only Spur who is banged up right now. They will also be without starting center Tiago Splitter and key bench player Patty Mills. Splitter has a calf injury and will be out for this game and possibly a few more, while Mills isn't expected to return until February due to a torn rotator cuff.
Dallas is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years. Dallas is a sensational 50-20 ATS in its last 70 road games overall. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
|
06-15-14 |
Miami Heat +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
87-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +5.5
While the Miami Heat have been atrocious the past two games, I believe this line is inflated because of it. With their season at stake, I look for the Heat to fight until the end tonight and to stay within 5.5 points of the Spurs, possibly pulling off the upset.
This is a veteran Heat team that is prepared better than any other team in the league for this win-or-go-home situation. Look for Lebron James and company to put together a game plan that will give them an excellent chance to win this Game 5 and send the series back to Miami.
Miami is 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds over the last two seasons. The Heat are 24-9 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Sunday.
|
06-12-14 |
San Antonio Spurs +5.5 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
107-86 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
20* Spurs/Heat Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5
I certainly understand the fact that the Heat have not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs in any of the past two years. However, they haven't played a team as good as this 2013-14 San Antonio squad. The Spurs are even better than they were a year ago, and they have made some nice adjustments from the way they played the Heat in the Finals last year.
Last year, the Spurs would go under screens and dare Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot the outside shot. Now, they are mixing it up, switching screens about half the time to give those two stars a different look, and it's working. Their transition defense has also been much better than it was a year ago.
San Antonio comes into this game knowing that they can essentially win the series with a victory tonight, and it will not be lacking any motivation because of it. This team is gleaming with confidence after a marvelous shooting display in Game 3, and while I do not expect that kind of shooting performance again, I believe they will be good enough to stay within 5.5 points, likely pulling off the upset.
Miami is 4-12 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. San Antonio is 41-22 ATS after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one days' rest. San Antonio is 53-25-1 ATS in its last 79 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Spurs in Game 4 Thursday.
|
06-10-14 |
San Antonio Spurs +4.5 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
111-92 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The San Antonio Spurs represent my strongest play of the entire NBA Finals tonight as a 4.5-point road underdog in Game 3 against the Miami Heat. I look for them to not only cover, but to win this game outright to re-gain home-court advantage in the series.
The Spurs have been the best road team in the league this season, going 33-16 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 points per game. This veteran bunch will not be intimidated one bit by going into Miami to try and come away with a victory in Game 3.
The Heat have been unbelievable when coming off a loss this season, but not so hot when coming off a win. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games following a S.U. win. Miami is also 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a road win, and 14-26 ATS in its last 40 home games after playing its last game on the road.
San Antonio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a home loss. The Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots. San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest. The Spurs are 52-25-1 ATS in their last 78 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.
|
06-08-14 |
Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 |
Top |
98-96 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
20* Heat/Spurs Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 199
After the Heat and Spurs went OVER in Game 1, I believe there is some value to backing the UNDER in Game 2. These teams have had two days off since Game 1 to make adjustments, which I strong believe will favor the defenses.
Miami is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 26-11 (70.3%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
06-05-14 |
Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -4 |
Top |
95-110 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* Heat/Spurs Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4
The San Antonio Spurs fought hard to get back to this position. They won the league's best record during the regular season to get home-court advantage throughout, then made their way through the Western Conference, which is arguably as strong as it's ever been.
Miami kind of went through the motions during the regular season, allowing the Pacers to take the No. 1 seed without even earning it. The Heat have then faced a very weak Eastern Conference to get here. They won't be ready for the challenge that's coming in Game 1 like the Spurs will be.
The Spurs are 41-10 at home this season. They have won eight straight playoff home games all by 6 points or more. In fact, their last seven playoff home games have resulted in victories by 17-plus points each. They have won 15 of their last 19 home meetings with the Heat.
San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games. The Spurs are 51-24-1 ATS in their last 76 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Thursday.
|
05-31-14 |
San Antonio Spurs +4 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
|
112-107 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +4
The San Antonio Spurs remember when they went up 2-0 only to lose the next four games to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals in 2012. They have been playing with extra motivation this series because of it, and while the home team has won every game thus far, I look for that to change in Game 6 tonight.
The Spurs know what they need to do to beat the Thunder after running their game plan to perfection in a blowout victory in Game 5. They have been stagnant on offense in their two road games, but they got back to moving the ball in Game 5. Look for them to really put an emphasis on ball movement in Game 6, because when they move it like they are supposed to, they are virtually unbeatable.
Plays against home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Spurs are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. San Antonio is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season. The Spurs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Spurs Saturday.
|
05-30-14 |
Indiana Pacers +7.5 v. Miami Heat |
|
92-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* Pacers/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5
The Indiana Pacers have won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons. After losing the first two games in Miami this series, I look for the Pacers to give the Heat a run for their money in Game 6 to try and extend this series and send it back to Indiana for a Game 7.
This has been a much closer series than most realize. The Pacers won Game 1, were tied with just over a minute remaining in Game 2, and blew a 15-point lead in Miami in Game 3. I like the fight this team showed in Game 5, and I believe it will carry over into Game 6 with their season at stake.
After all, the Pacers have played their best this postseason when their back has been against the wall. They won Game 6 in Atlanta when trailing 3-2, and finished the Hawks off in Game 7. After falling behind 0-1 to Washington, they won three straight and eventually won in six games. They are still a solid 5-3 on the road in these playoffs.
Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last two seasons. The Heat are 1-8 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots this season. Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games. Take the Pacers in Game 6 Friday.
|
05-29-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5 |
|
89-117 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 20 m |
Show
|
15* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio -5
The San Antonio Spurs head back home for Game 5 of this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is a very resilient Spurs bunch that knows the importance of this game and does not want a repeat of two years ago when they blew a 2-0 lead to the Thunder and lost 2-4.
The Spurs are 40-10 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points per game. The home team has won all four meetings in this series thus far. The Spurs won their first two home games by a combined 52 points.
I look for Greg Popovich to make the necessary adjustments to put his team in a much better position to win tonight. The ball will move quickly on offense, and also look for Manu Ginobli to play more with the starters because he can break down a defense.
The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 home playoff games. San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games this postseason. The Spurs are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Take the Spurs in Game 5 Thursday.
|
05-28-14 |
Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +1.5 |
|
90-93 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* Heat/Pacers Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5
The Indiana Pacers will have some fight left in them as they head back home for Game 5. This easily could be a 2-2 series right now, and knowing that they won in Miami in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, they have to have some hope that they can come back and win the series.
"I think anytime you lose three in a row in the playoffs, it shakes your confidence some," coach Frank Vogel said. "But we can't worry about that. All we've got to worry about is coming back and winning Game 5 and giving us an opportunity to come down here and win one game. We've won one game in each playoff series that we've played here the last two years. We should have confidence that we can do that."
The Pacers won Game 1 and were tied with Miami in the closing minutes in Game 2, but faltered down the stretch. They also blew a 15-point lead at Miami in Game 3, so it's clear that they have proven they can play with this team. They just need a few more things to go their way tonight, and I believe they will.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS since 1996. Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams get together as the home team has gone 11-1 (92%) straight up in the last 12 meetings. Take the Pacers in Game 5 Wednesday.
|
05-27-14 |
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
|
92-105 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
15* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs played their worst game of the playoffs in Game 3, yet they still only lost by single-digits. They relaxed a little after winning the first two games by a combined 56 points, and they ended up shooting just 39.6% from the floor in that 97-106 Game 3 loss.
Everyone wants to be quick to credit the return of Serge Ibaka as the reason the Thunder won, but I believe it was more to do with self-inflicted wounds than anything. Tony Parker has his worst game of the series, and when he doesn't have it going, the team tends to struggle offensively.
I look for the Spurs to come back highly motivated tonight realizing that they need to take back control of this series after what happened in the 2012 conference finals. They blew a 2-0 lead and lost the next four games to the Thunder that year, and they will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight because of it.
San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days' rest. San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Roll with the Spurs in Game 4 Tuesday.
|
05-26-14 |
Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
90-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* Pacers/Heat Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6.5
It's now or never for the Indiana Pacers, who cannot afford to lose this Game 4 against the Miami Heat if they want to win this series. I look for them to lay it all on the line to get the victory, and for it to be enough to at least stay within this 6.5-point spread.
Sure, Indiana blew a golden opportunity in Game 3 after leading most of the way in that contest. Miami simply got hot in the 4th quarter, and Ray Allen could not miss. The Heat have shot at least 50% in every game thus far, so they have clearly had a lot right go for them.
That is saying something considering the Pacers are the top defensive team in the league this season. Indeed, they rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and I fully expect their best effort on that end of the floor in this one.
The Pacers are 5-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet Indiana in Game 4 Monday.
|
05-25-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
97-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* Spurs/Thunder Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a very high-scoring Game 1 that saw 227 combined points. That final tally has inflated the total in both Game 2 and Game 3. I took advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 2, and I'll take advantage again today in Game 3.
The fact of the matter is that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Indeed, the Spurs rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder rank 5th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.
This has been a low-scoring series between these familiar foes, who met in the Western Conference Finals in 2012 as well. In fact, eight of the last 11 meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points.
The UNDER is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 12-5 in Spurs last 17 games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 54-21 (72%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
05-24-14 |
Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
87-99 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
25* Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7
The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play in the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 3 of this series. They are catching too many points against the Miami Heat in this one, and I'll take advantage by taking all the points I can get.
Paul George is expected to play Saturday, which is a huge bonus for the Pacers because he is by far the most important player on the team. He is averaging 21.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists in the playoffs, and a team-high 41.3 minutes per game to boot.
As I've stated before, the Pacers match up really well with the Heat because George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as any duo in the league. They ranks 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Heat rank 11th in that same category at 102.9 points per 100 possessions.
Indiana has won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons in 2012 and 2013. It has played its best basketball away from home in the postseason, going 5-1 through the first two rounds in road games. It was an underdog in four of those contests, all of which it won outright.
The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Miami is 7-18 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Indiana is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on three or more days of rest. Bet the Pacers Saturday.
|
05-21-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
77-112 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 22 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR Thunder/Spurs on UNDER 211.5
After an extremely high-scoring Game 1 with 227 combined points in a 122-105 San Antonio victory, I look for the defense to be much sharper tonight in Game 2 of this series. That was the case in the Miami/Indiana series, and I expect the same thing to happen in this one as well.
After all, that Game 1 total was more of an aberration than anything, especially when you look at how these teams have fared against each other recently. Seven of the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Thunder have seen 206 or fewer combined points.
These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season. Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder ranked 5th, allowing 101.0 points per 100 possessions.
The UNDER is 14-6 in Spurs last 20 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1 in Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Wednesday.
|
05-20-14 |
Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 |
|
87-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Heat/Pacers Game 2 No-Doubt Rout on Indiana +3
I'm taking the Indiana Pacers for many of the same reasons I backed them in Game 1. But most importantly, I'm backing them because they know how important retaining home-court advantage is, and that's why they will not have a letdown after throttling the Heat 107-96 in Game 1.
Sure, I realize the fact that Miami has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs over the past two seasons, but you also have to realize that nobody other than perhaps San Antonio has played the Heat as tough as the Pacers in the postseason. They aren't afraid of Miami because they know they can beat them.
Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams. In fact, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series. Indiana has gone 39-10 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game. Miami is just 25-21 on the road this year.
Indiana is the best defensive team in the league. It ranked 1st in defensive efficiency during the regular season, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. To compare, Miami ranked 11th in the same category, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions. Paul George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade better than any tandem in the league.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-6 (86%) ATS over the last five seasons. The home team is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.
|
05-19-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 209 |
Top |
105-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209
I look for a low-scoring affair between these familiar foes in Game 1 of this series Monday. This is a rematch from the 2012 Western Conference Finals in which the Thunder won 4-2. The familiarity will make points hard to come by in the opener tonight.
These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season. Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.1 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 101.0 points per 100 possessions.
One big key here is that Serge Ibaka is expected to be out for the remainder of the regular season. While he is a solid defender, it will hurt the Thunder a lot more on the other end of the floor. Ibaka averaged 15.1 points per game in the regular season and can make an 18-foot jumper with consistency. That helps spread the floor, and the Thunder do not have another forward/center that can make that shot. They will be in trouble offensively because of it.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 56-29 (65.9%) since 1996. Seven of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 206 or fewer combined points. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
05-18-14 |
Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 |
Top |
96-107 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 53 m |
Show
|
20* Heat/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +3
The Indiana Pacers worked hard during the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They did so looking ahead to a potential Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Miami Heat. Starting with Game 1, I look for them to put that home court to use.
Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams have gotten together recently. Indeed, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season. Dating back to the playoffs last year, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.
Indiana has gone 38-10 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game at home. Miami is a mediocre 25-20 on the road this year, clearly proving to be beatable away from home.
The Pacers were the best team in the league defensively this season. They ranked first in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. To compare, Miami ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.
When you can play defense, you give yourself a chance to win in the playoffs. No team is better suited to stop Lebron James and Dwyane Wade than the Pacers. Paul George can contain James, while Lance Stephenson does an excellent job on Wade.
The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days' rest. I look for Indiana to protect its home court in Game 1 as the home team wins a 9th straight meeting between these teams. Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Sunday.
|
05-15-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 212 |
Top |
104-98 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 60 m |
Show
|
20* Thunder/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 212
This series has gotten much more low-scoring as it has gone on. Game 4 and Game 5 have been the two lowest-scoring games of the series. The Thunder and Clippers combined for 200 points in Game 4 and 209 points in Game 5.
As teams become more familiar with one another over the course of a series, it favors the defenses. Both of these teams know what the other is trying to do now. OKC wants to isolate Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, while LAC wants to run pick and roll with Chris Paul.
The defenses have clearly made the adjustments in these past two games based off of shooting percentages. The Clippers shot 41.9% in Game 4 and 43.2% in Game 5. The Thunder shot 44% in Game 4 and 42.9% in Game 5.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 36-13 (73.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
05-14-14 |
PORTLAND GM5 +8 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 |
Top |
82-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +8
It took three games to figure it out, but the Portland Trail Blazers now have an answer for Tony Parker. After letting him go wild in the first three games of this series, they held him to just 14 points, one assist and three turnovers in a 103-92 Game 4 victory.
Parker had been averaging 26 points and more than eight assists in the first three games of the series. The difference was Nicolas Batum, who was charged with guarding Parker the entire game. The fellow Frenchman's length gave Parker fits and allow the Blazers to avoid the sweep.
I believe Portland legitimately has a chance to win this Game 5 outright tonight now that it has found the right defense for Parker. The Spurs are overvalued due to four straight double-digit victories prior to that Game 4 loss. They have no business being an 8-point favorite here against a Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives.
The Blazers are 11-1 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season. The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in home games off two straight games where they had 10 or less offensive rebounds this season. San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.
|
05-13-14 |
LA CLIPPERS GM5 +5.5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 |
Top |
104-105 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
20* Clippers/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have all of the momentum heading into Game 5. They just erased a 16-point deficit with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 by a final of 101-99. After looking dead to the water in this series, they now have new life and are essentially free rolling.
All of the pressure is back on Oklahoma City, which got 67 combined points from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and Game 4. The Thunder also held the Clippers to 41.9% shooting in that contest, and they STILL could not win. This team has to be baffled right now and feeling the pressure.
The Clippers clearly have the best coach in this series, and it's not even close. I like what he did in putting the smaller Chris Paul on Durant, double-teaming him and forcing him to shoot outside jump shots. I look for them to use that strategy again in Game 5, and Durant will either have to force shots or pass the ball. Either way, that works in Los Angeles' favor. Oklahoma City doesn't have the role players that can beat the Clippers.
Doc Rivers is 27-8 ATS in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or more of their shots in all games he has coached. Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Oklahoma City. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.
|
05-12-14 |
MIAMI GM4 v. BROOKLYN GM4 +3 |
|
102-96 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* Heat/Nets Game 4 No-Brainer on Brooklyn +3
The Brooklyn Nets proved that they weren't going to go away quietly by absolutely dominating in Game 3. They crushed the Miami Heat 104-90 while shooting 52.8% from the field and outrebounding the Heat 50-30 for the game.
I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence in Game 4 off such a brilliant effort in a must-win situation. This team obviously has the belief now that it can beat the Heat in the playoffs after sweeping them 4-0 during the regular season.
Brooklyn did play well all season at home, going 31-14 inside of the Barclays Center. Miami has been beatable on the road, posting a 24-20 record away from home. So, it's no surprise that the home team has won each of the first three meetings in this series.
The Nets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the Nets Monday.
|
05-11-14 |
OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5 |
Top |
99-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* Thunder/Clippers Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5
The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to even this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is essentially a must-win situation for the Clippers, who cannot afford to fall behind 1-3 if they want to win this series.
Essentially nothing went right for the Clippers in Game 3, yet they still only lost by six points by a final of 112-118. They were out-shot 55.7% to 45.2% and outrebounded 42-52. Usually, those two numbers would lead to a blowout for the other team.
So, considering they can't play any worse, I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 4. The Clippers are 37-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game.
Los Angeles is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season. The Clippers are 14-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 20-9 ATS off a loss this season. Bet the Clippers in Game 4 Sunday.
|
05-10-14 |
MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 UNDER 189.5 |
Top |
90-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* Nets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5
This entire season series has been pretty low scoring between the Brookyn Nets and Miami Heat. I look for that trend to continue in Game 3 tonight now that these teams are very familiar with each other as this will be their 7th meeting of the season.
I look for Game 3 to take on a similar tone to Game 2, which was defense, defense, defense. Miami beat Brooklyn 94-82 for 176 combined points. In fact, each of the last five meetings this season have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.
Brooklyn's only chance to beat Miami is to slow it down and play at a snail's pace. That's what it had success doing in the regular season, and playing at home in Game 3, I look for it to control the tempo in this one. The Nets rank 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game. Miami ranks 27th in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.
Erik Spoelstra is 33-13 to the UNDER in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread as the coach of Miami. The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six Conference Semifinals games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
05-09-14 |
Indiana Pacers +4.5 v. Washington Wizards |
Top |
85-63 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
20* Pacers/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5
Oddsmakers have set the line in this game like this is an evenly-matched series. Indiana was only a 4 to 4.5-point favorite in Games 1 and 2 at home. Now they're a 4.5-point dog on the road in Game 3. I believe the Pacers are the better team in this series, and I'll back them in Game 3 because of it.
Roy Hibbert came alive with 28 points and nine rebounds in a Game 2 victory. Paul George had taken him out on a fishing boat the day prior, and it really showed that he and the team had his back. Now, with Hibbert back on board, this is going to be a scary team the rest of the way.
Indiana has played its best when it has needed to on the road thus far in the playoffs. In fact, it took two out of three road games from Atlanta last series, which was a place that the Pacers simply could not win for years. I believe it gets Game 3 on the road tonight to regain home-court advantage.
The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Randy Wittman is 28-52 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less in all games he has coached. Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Friday.
|
05-08-14 |
Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
82-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192
These plays go hand in hand. I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.
Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out. It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto. They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.
I look for those roles to be reversed tonight. The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series. This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.
Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season. Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year. The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.
Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.
Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points. That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer. As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.
Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami. The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996. Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
05-08-14 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat UNDER 192 |
Top |
82-94 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192
These plays go hand in hand. I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.
Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out. It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto. They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.
I look for those roles to be reversed tonight. The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series. This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.
Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season. Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year. The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.
Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.
Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points. That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer. As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.
Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami. The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996. Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
05-07-14 |
Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4.5 |
Top |
82-86 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5
The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play of the second round of the NBA playoffs tonight in Game 2 of their series with the Washington Wizards. After losing Game 1, I fully expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory at home in Game 2.
I'm going to chalk the 96-102 Game 1 loss up to a hangover from the 7-game series against Atlanta, and also tremendous 3-point shooting by Washington. Indeed, the Wizards went 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3-point range, and Trevor Ariza was 6-of-6. That's not going to happen again.
Indiana is 37-9 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game. This is one of the toughest places to play in the league, hands down. Players went up to Roy Hibbert after Game 1 and asked for more from him, and I look for him to respond in Game 2.
Washington is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games off two or more consecutive road wins. Indiana is 45-31 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 41-26 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Wizards 1-12 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Indiana. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|
05-06-14 |
Brooklyn Nets +7.5 v. Miami Heat |
|
86-107 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
15* Nets/Heat Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +7.5
The Brooklyn Nets continue to get no respect when facing Miami despite what they did during the regular season. Everyone wants to just overlook the fact that the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat in the regular year, chalking it up to luck. I'm not buying it.
Brooklyn set out this offseason to build a contender that could compete with Miami. I believe it has done that while also proving that with the 4-0 record during the regular season. I look for Miami to struggle once again in this opener of a seven-game series.
Dwyane Wade may have awoken a sleeping giant with the comments he made leading up to this series. While Paul Pierce was quick to compliment Lebron James as one of the best players in the game, Wade took a different approach. On Pierce and KG, Wade said "we thought we buried them in Boston". That was obviously a shot at their age, and one these two and the team will not take lightly.
Jason Kidd's record against the Heat in recent years is telling. Going back to the 2007-08 season, his teams have won 16 of the last 21 games he played in against Miami, and now he's 4-0 as a coach against the Heat. The guy was a coach on the floor as a player, and he clearly knows ways to beat this team.
Brooklyn is 17-3 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons. The Nets are 10-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two years. Miami is 6-17 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons. The Nets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Nets Tuesday.
|
05-05-14 |
Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
Top |
122-105 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
20* Clippers/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have an excellent chance to steal Game 1 of this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. I'll just take the points for some insurance tonight folks.
We saw in the first round several road teams steal Game 1. It's when the home team is most vulnerable, especially since both teams had just one day to prepare for this after playing in Game 7's on Saturday.
The only game the Clippers played all that poorly in against the Warriors in the opening round was Game 4, which was played on the same day of the Donald Sterling news, so none of the players showed up for it. Their other two losses came by a combined five points. I just think that situation has brought this team closer together, and they are going to be a dangerous team throughout the rest of the playoffs because of it.
I believe the Clippers match up very well with the Thunder. Chris Paul is one of the best defenders in the league and will give Russell Westbrook fits. Matt Barnes is one of the most underrated wing defenders in the league, and his length will help contain Kevin Durant.
The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference semifinals games. The Clippers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Oklahoma City. Los Angeles is 15-3 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season. Bet the Clippers Monday.
|
05-04-14 |
Brooklyn Nets +3 v. Toronto Raptors |
Top |
104-103 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 17 m |
Show
|
25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +3
The Brooklyn Nets staved off elimination in Game 6 with an emphatic 97-83 victory over the Toronto Raptors. Now, I look for them to capitalize and win this series with a Game 7 victory, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.
Toronto has been one of the best stories in the league this year. However, I just don't believe this inexperienced team has what it takes to win a winner-take-all Game 7. Brooklyn, meanwhile, has several veterans that have been through these types of games.
That veteran presence showed up in Game 6 as they came together defensively and limited the Raptors to just 38.5% shooting. Deron Williams led the way with 23 points, while fellow playoff vets Joe Johnson (17), Kevin Garnett (13) and Paul Pierce (12) all finished in double figures as well.
Brooklyn is 16-3 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two seasons. The Raptors are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. These four trends combine for a 35-4 system backing Brooklyn. Bet the Nets Sunday.
|
05-03-14 |
GOLDEN STATE GM7 +7 v. LA CLIPPERS GM7 |
Top |
121-126 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7
I had Los Angeles picked to win this series all along. However, I do not believe they should be a 7-point favorite over Golden State in Game 7 of this series Saturday night. I'll take the points as a result.
Golden State is a very profitable 52-34 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Amazingly, the Warriors are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in the first round of the playoffs. Time and time again they are undervalued, and 2014 has been no exception. Bet the Warriors Saturday.
|
05-02-14 |
Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 213 |
Top |
98-99 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
25* Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 213
Close out games tend to be played at a slower pace due to the value of each possession. We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188. The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.
Finally, after a 4-0 OVER run through their first four games of this series, the Rockets and Blazers went UNDER in Game 5 as Houston won 108-98 at home for 206 combined points. I look for a similar combined point total in Game 6 here tonight as the pace in this series has really slowed down, and that should continue.
Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, which is a complete fluke and has led to the inflation of their totals in this series, including tonight. Those overtime games make it seem like these teams score a lot more points when they get together than they really do. Plus, what are the chances of this game going to OT for a 5th time in 7 meetings?
Another reason I'm backing the UNDER is that Houston started Omer Asik and Dwight Howard, two centers, together for the first time all season in Game 5. It worked as they held Portland to just 98 points and 43.4% shooting while deploying that defensive lineup. The Rockets are sure to go back to that line-up in Game 6, which will help pave the way for the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
05-02-14 |
Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 192 |
|
83-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* Raptors/Nets Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 192
I'll back the UNDER in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets. These close out games always seemed to be played at a slower pace because every possession is so important.
We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188. The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.
These teams exploded for 228 combined points in Game 5, which has forced the books to inflate this number. Brooklyn shot 53.3% from the floor, 47.8% (11-of-23) from 3-point range, and shot 30 free throws. Toronto shot 48.1% from the floor, 46.2% (12-of-26) from 3-point range, and 36 free throws.
This game after a 166-point performance in Game 4 in an 87-79 Toronto victory. Clearly, Game 5 was the aberration in this series. I look for Game 6 to take on a similar tone to Game 4. Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
05-01-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies |
|
104-84 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* Thunder/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5
I look for the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 6 tonight on the road to force a Game 7. They already showed that they could go on the road and win a must-win game when they were trailing 2-1 in Game 4, eventually winning in overtime to even the series at 2-2.
The Thunder have had poor luck in this series in the close games. Each of the last four games have gone to overtime, and they have managed to lose three of the four. Unlike the rest of this series, I look for Game 6 to be a blowout in the Thunder's favor given what's at stake with their season on the line.
Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close loss by 3 points or less. Memphis is 7-23 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Roll with the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.
|
05-01-14 |
Indiana Pacers -1 v. Atlanta Hawks |
Top |
95-88 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* Pacers/Hawks Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -1
The Indiana Pacers are the better team in this series. I still believe they are going to prevail in seven games, but it starts with a Game 6 victory in Atlanta. I look for head coach Frank Vogel to make the proper adjustments to match Atlanta's small line-up that has been killing them.
Indiana went small in the second half of Game 5 and cut a 30-point deficit down to single-digits before eventually losing 97-107. Of course, everything went right for the Hawks in that game as they shot 50% from the field and 55.6% (15-of-27) from 3-point range. That won't happen again.
The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. loss. The Hawks are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 2 days rest. Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Take the Pacers in Game 6 Thursday.
|
04-30-14 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 191 |
Top |
113-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191
Once again, the books have set the bar too high in this Game 5 between the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors. I backed the UNDER in Game 4 with an 87-79 Toronto victory and 166 combined points. I look for Game 5 to take on a similar defensive tone.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in April games are 374-268 (58.3%) since 1996.
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Nets last nine games when playing on two days' rest. The UNDER is 5-2 in Raptors last seven conference quarterfinal games. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
04-30-14 |
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
|
103-109 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
15* Mavericks/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5
The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a 6.5-point underdog in Game 5 in what has been one of the most exciting series of the playoffs. Three of the four games have been decided by 5 points or less and a combined 10 points.
The lone exception was in Game 2 when the Mavericks won 113-92 in an absolute blowout in San Antonio. Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series with its two losses coming by 5 points in Game 1 and 4 points in Game 4. This team is certainly not backing down from the defending Western Conference champions.
Dallas is 14-2 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The Mavericks are 92-56 ATS in their last 148 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days. Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Mavericks are 41-14 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss. Dallas is 49-19 ATS in its last 68 road games. Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.
|
04-29-14 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 187.5 |
|
100-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 187.5
The books have once again set the bar too high in this Game 5 showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies. They have done so because each of the last three games have gone to overtime in this series, which has inflated the number.
The chances of a fourth straight OT game are slim to none, and thus this game should finish well UNDER the posted total. Heck, Game 4 finished with 181 combined points despite overtime in a 92-89 OKC victory. In fact, three of the first four games in this series have finished with 186 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.
As this series has gone on, points have been even harder to come by. These teams combined for 170 points at the end of regulation in Game 3, and 170 points again at the end of regulation in Game 4. These teams are so familiar with one another having played against each other in the playoffs last year, and that familiarity has led to great defense.
Memphis is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 28 road games. Oklahoma City is 29-11 to the UNDER in its last 40 games when playing on two days' rest. The UNDER is 15-7 in Grizzlies last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
04-28-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 203.5 |
Top |
93-89 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 9 m |
Show
|
20* Mavs/Spurs TNT Monday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5
Off back-to-back overs in this series, the total has been inflated Monday in Game 4 between Dallas and San Antonio. This is the highest total set of the series, which alone lets you know that there's value with the UNDER.
These teams have shot lights out in the past two games, and that's just unlikely to happen again, especially anything close to what they did in Game 3. In Game 2, the Mavs won 113-92 and shot 48.9% while the Spurs shot 50.0%. In Game 3, the Mavs won 109-108 and shot 51.2%, while San Antonio shot 54.3%.
The longer a series goes, the more familiar a team is with its opponent. That familiarity tends to lead toward low-scoring games. That's why you'll see the totals in most series get lowered as it goes on. Again, the fact that this is the highest total of the series thus far assures that we're getting some value here.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
04-27-14 |
Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 192 |
Top |
87-79 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
20* Nets/Raptors Game 4 No-Brainer on UNDER 192
No analysis today because I'm on vacation. I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday. Thanks, and good luck, Jack!
|
04-27-14 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 210 |
|
97-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* Clippers/Warriors Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210
No analysis today because I'm on vacation. I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday. Thanks, and good luck, Jack!
|
04-27-14 |
Chicago Bulls +1.5 v. Washington Wizards |
|
89-98 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Wizards Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +1.5
No analysis today because I'm on vacation. I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday. Thanks, and good luck, Jack!
|
04-26-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189 |
Top |
92-89 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 33 m |
Show
|
20* Thunder/Grizzlies Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189
Simply put, if you were on board with me in Game 3 of this series, you got robbed as did I. We had the UNDER 191 in Game 3, which was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation for 170 combined points. We still nearly won in overtime, but ultimately got the loss due to some late free throws in a 98-95 (OT) Memphis victory.
So, two of the first three meetings in this series have gone to overtime. Two were well UNDER the posted total at the end of regulation with 186 combined points in Game 1 and 170 in Game 3. Dating back further, 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have seen 188 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.
I look for Game 4 to take on a similar path as Game 3, but hopefully this time we don't get burned by overtime. The chances of three of the first four games going to OT are slim to none, and that's the only way I foresee this Game 4 surpassing this posted total. This will be a defensive battle between these bitter rivals who are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs last year.
Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less this season. The Grizzlies are 45-24 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
04-26-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
108-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 29 m |
Show
|
20* Spurs/Mavericks Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 202.5
The books have set the bar too high for this Game 3 showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks. With the series tied 1-1, I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a victory in this all-important Game 3.
After combining for just 175 points in Game 1, these teams combined for 205 points in Game 2. I fully expect Game 3 to fall somewhere in between. Dallas got a ton of easy points en route to a 112-93 victory in Game 2 thanks to 22 turnovers from San Antonio, which won't happen again.
The Spurs shot 50.0% from the field while the Mavs shot 48.9% in Game 2, and I don't expect either team to connect at that high of a clip again. Game 3 is where the defensive adjustments usually come into play, which makes it harder for each team to score. That's why you have seen my taking a bunch of UNDERS in Game 3's. The following trend explains why.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
04-26-14 |
Indiana Pacers -2 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
91-88 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 57 m |
Show
|
15* Pacers/Hawks Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2
It's pretty much do or die for the Indiana Pacers in Game 4. I fully expect them to rise to the occasion and to re-gain home-court advantage with a victory in Atlanta. They are the better team, and with their season on the line, I look for them to come together in this one.
The Hawks had huge edges in 3-pointers and free throw shooting in Game 3 that allowed them to win. They shot 37 free throws compared to 21 for Indiana, clearly getting the majority of the calls throughout the game, which won't happen again. They also connected on 12 3-pointers for the game.
Yet, Indiana had a chance to win late. The Pacers were within a couple points in the 4th quarter despite shooting 37.6% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range. Basically, the Pacers couldn't have played a worse game, while the Hawks couldn't have played a whole lot better, or gotten any more breaks to go their way. The chances of these things happening two games in a row are slim.
Indiana is 30-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off one or consecutive losses. Atlanta is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win. Roll with the Pacers in Game 4 Saturday.
|
04-25-14 |
Houston Rockets v. Portland Trailblazers UNDER 216 |
Top |
121-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 13 m |
Show
|
20* Rockets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between Houston and Portland for Game 3 Friday. After getting robbed on the UNDER in Game 2 with a total set of 215 points and a final combined score of 217, I have no doubt this Game 3 showdown will be more low-scoring.
Indeed, Game 2 was well on pace to go UNDER until the final few minutes where fouls piled up and neither team missed a free throw. They combined for 57 points. It was a 100-93 game with 3 minutes left, giving us 22 points to work with. That would usually lead to an UNDER 90% of the time, but some bad breaks with fouls in the end led to 24 combined points over the final 3 minutes, which is almost unheard of.
Last night, all three Game 3's should have went UNDER the total. The Hawks/Pacers game did and so did the Clippers/Warriors contest. The only reason the Grizzlies/Thunder game went over was due to overtime in a game that was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation, which was 20 points under the posted total of 190.
Yes, I was on that under and a little bitter about it still today, but I can take some consolation in knowing I was on the right side of it, but again had a bad break to take the loss. Game 3 is where I really like to play the UNDERS because it's where the adjustments have been made after the first two games to where both teams are very familiar with one another. Familiarity leads to low-scoring games.
I especially like this 'UNDER' in the Rockets/Blazers Game 3 because the first two games have gone over the total, which has kept this line inflated. Neither game should have went over because the first game went into overtime tied 106-106 at the end of regulation, while Game 2 had that onslaught of points late to get the over by a mere two points. It would take another miracle for Game 3 to go 'over' as well, and I'll bank on it not happening.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
04-25-14 |
Chicago Bulls +3 v. Washington Wizards |
|
100-97 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 15 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3
This is the exact type of game the Chicago Bulls live for. Everyone has counted them out after losing the first two games of this series at home, and everything except the guys inside that locker room believe this series is over. This team plays its best when it is counted out.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Tom Thibodeau deserves Coach of the Year every year with what he has been able to do with this team. The players take after their head coach, who has absolutely no quit in him. He'll rally the troops and you'll see the Bulls put forth one of their best efforts of the season in Game 3.
Chicago actually played some of its best basketball on the road this season posting a 21-20 record away from home. That included a 96-78 road victory in its last trip to Washington on April 5th. Washington actually owns a worse home record (22-19) than a road record (24-19) on the year.
The Bulls have a lot of playoff experience on this team. They know a series isn't over until its over. Washington, meanwhile, is loaded with inexperience in terms of the playoffs. While that actually worked in the Wizards' favor in the first two games of this series as they didn't know any better, I believe it will work against them here. They will be content with their 2-0 lead and not be able to match the effort of the desperate Bulls in Game 3.
Thibodeau is 39-22 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 32-16 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago. Randy Whitman is 27-51 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of Washington. The Wizards are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games off two or more consecutive road wins. Chicago is 91-57 ATS in its last 148 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%. Take the Bulls Friday.
|
04-25-14 |
Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 192 |
Top |
98-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* Raptors/Nets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 192
I expect Game 3 to play out similar to Game 1 where the Nets beat the Raptors 94-87 for 181 combined points. I believe Game 2 was the aberration as these teams combined for 195 points in a 100-95 Toronto victory.
Game 2 was playing out just like Game 1 through three quarters. They had combined for 40, 44 and 46 points in the first three quarters, respectively. However, the teams exploded for 65 combined points in the fourth quarter, which made the final score seem like less of a defensive battle than it really was.
Kevin Garnett spoke openly about how Brooklyn's fourth quarter defense was unacceptable as it allowed the Raptors to put up 36 points. You can bet that the Nets will come back with tremendous intensity defensively in Game 3. Toronto will also bring it on that end of the floor like it has all season. The Raptors rank 9th in the league in defensive efficiency.
This has certainly been a half-court series to this point, and I don't expect that to change in Game 3. Brooklyn ranks 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game. Toronto ranks 23rd in pace at 94.4 possessions per game. Neither team will look to run much in Game 3, especially with the adjustments that will be made, which will favor both defenses. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
04-24-14 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
98-96 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 41 m |
Show
|
20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5
The books are overreacting by raising this total set in Game 3 between the Clippers and Warriors compared to the first two games in this series. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be the lowest-scoring game of the series by far.
The defense was a little shoddy in Game 1 as they combined for 214 points with a total set of 211. They Warriors played no defense in a 98-138 loss in Game 2, content that they had stolen Game 1. It was such a big blowout that the starters got pulled in the second half and the points kept piling on with no defense being played due to the outcome already being decided. Game 2's total was set at 212.5 points, and Game 3's is now 215.5. As you can see, the value is with the UNDER because of it.
You can bet that both teams will be bringing 100% effort defensively in this Game 3. Golden State wants to make amends for it's embarrassing Game 2 showdown, while Los Angeles wants to regain home-court advantage. These teams are very familiar with how one another wants to play, which favors the defenses moving forward. Adjustments will be made, especially considering these teams have had two days' rest to prepare, which again favors defense.
Prior to the first two games of this series, six of the last seven meetings between the Clippers and Warriors had seen 209 or fewer combined points. I simply believe the first two games of this series were an aberration. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 40-12 (76.9%) since 1996. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
04-24-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 191 |
Top |
95-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 191
The books have set the bar too high in Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies. This is the highest they have set the total for any of the first three games in this series.
They have done so following a high-scoring game in Game 2. However, the only reason that game saw 216 combined points is because it went to overtime. There were also a ton of fouls at the end of regulation that inflated the final score. In fact, these teams combined for 65 points in the final period after combing for 40, 49 and 44 points in the first three. This number has been inflated due to Game 2's final score.
The defensive intensity in Game 3 will be even higher than it was the first two games. Both teams will be trying to get home-court advantage in the series with a win. Also, having played twice already, these teams are familiar with one another, which favors the defenses. They have also had two days off in between Game 2 and Game 3 to prepare, which will benefit the defenses as well with the adjustments that will be made.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 29-10 in Thunder's last 39 games when playing on two days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
04-24-14 |
Indiana Pacers -2 v. Atlanta Hawks |
Top |
85-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* Pacers/Hawks NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2
The Indiana Pacers get the nod Thursday as a small road favorite against the Atlanta Hawks. They showed me something in Game 2 that I believe will carry over into Game 3. They got back to playing with a passion in the second half, turning a 48-52 deficit at the break into a a 16-point blowout thanks to a 31-13 third quarter.
Indiana got back to playing defense and playing for one another, which is what got them to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year. The Pacers held the Hawks to just 33 points after intermission. I really believe we'll look back to that second half as a turning point for them in the playoffs, and it will carry over into Game 3 tonight.
The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are out-classed here. They only made the playoffs because the Eastern Conference was down this year as their 38-44 record was good enough to get in. If Indiana shows up to play, it should beat this team 90% of the time. There's no question it shows up in Game 3 to try and regain home-court advantage.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996. The favorite is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings. Bet the Pacers Thursday.
|
04-23-14 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 215 |
Top |
112-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 16 m |
Show
|
20* Blazers/Rockets TNT Wednesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215
This total is a complete overreaction from Game 1. That contest was much more lower-scoring than the final score would indicate. It was tied 106-106 at the end of regulation for a combined 212 points, which would have been UNDER the 215.5-point total.
Instead, the combined for another 30 in overtime in a 122-120 Portland victory. They needed 60 combined points in the fourth quarter just to get to 212 at the end of regulation. The Blazers used the hack-a-Howard strategy, which got them back in the game.
While that is concerning heading into Game 2, I'm not that worried about it because head coach Kevin McHale took Howard out after a couple of misses, then put him back in with under two minutes to go. That way, the Blazers could not intentionally foul him. I look for McHale to take him out even sooner if they try the same thing again.
This is the playoffs, and while both teams play at a fast pace normally, things slow down a little more in the postseason. The defensive intensity gets kicked up a notch, which makes it easy to pick apart these high point totals by backing the UNDER. I liked what I saw from both teams defensively in Game 1, and I look for that intensity to be even more extreme in this all-important Game 2.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in in Game 2 Wednesday.
|
04-22-14 |
Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5 |
Top |
101-99 |
Loss |
-107 |
24 h 16 m |
Show
|
20* Wizards/Bulls TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -5
After blowing a 13-point lead and losing Game 1 of this series, I look for the resilient Chicago Bulls to bounce back with a Game 2 victory. This has been a resilient bunch all season with the losses of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng. They aren't about to pack it in now and give up on this series after losing one game.
Washington is a young team that probably doesn't quite understand needing to go for a team's throat when it is down. John Wall, Bradley Bill and company won't come back with that killer mentality. They are satisfied with taking one of the first two games in Chicago, and I look for that to show tonight. The Bulls will be winning all of the effort plays in this one, which will help them win and cover this 5-point spread.
The Wizards are 10-25 ATS in thier last 35 games off two or more consecutive road wins. Washington is 102-149 ATS off two or more consecutive wins since 1996. Chicago is 27-13 ATS off a home loss over the last three years. The Bulls are 25-15 ATS revenging a loss this season. Chicago is 12-1 (92%) ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Bet the Bulls in Game 2 Tuesday.
|
04-22-14 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7 |
|
85-101 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana -7
The Indiana Pacers have come too far to let a Game 1 loss affect them. They have gotten the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, which was their goal coming into the year. They will use it to their advantage and bounce back with a blowout home victory over Atlanta in Game 2.
Not a whole lot went right for the Pacers in Game 1 as they shot just 42.0% from the field and 69.6% from the free throw line. A lot went right for Atlanta as it made 11 three-pointers and shot 24-of-29 (82.8%) from the free throw line. It was the more aggressive team, getting to the line six more times than the Pacers (16-23), but I look for them to have a role reversal in that department. Indiana will be the more aggressive team in this one.
I have a feeling we may look back to this Game 1 loss as the wake up call the Pacers needed to go on a big run to the Eastern Conference Finals. The fact of the matter is that this team is still one of the best in the league, while the Hawks only made the playoffs because the East was so down this year. They got in with a 38-44 record, so they really aren't that good.
Atlanta is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on two days' rest. The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The favorites is 25-10-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings in this series. Take the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.
|
04-21-14 |
Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 212.5 |
Top |
98-138 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 33 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Clippers UNDER 212.5
After a high-scoring affair in Game 1, I look for the defense to be much better in Game 2 and for points to be harder to come by. It won't take much considering they combined for 214 points in a 109-105 Golden State victory Saturday.
The perception is that the Warriors and Clippers don't play much defense, but that couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, the Warriors actually rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers rank 7th in that same category, yielding 102.1 points per 100 possessions.
These teams did combine for 209 or fewer points in three of their four regular season meetings. So, if anything, Game 1's 214-point total was the aberration. Both teams made 10 3-pointers and shot over 40% from distance, which isn't likely to happen again.
The UNDER is 40-18 in Warriors last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Clippers last 14 home games.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
04-20-14 |
Washington Wizards +4.5 v. Chicago Bulls |
|
102-93 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
15* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington +4.5
The Wizards finally turned the corner this season. They ended a five-year playoff drought and turned all their promise into production. The front office has eyed the playoffs all season, making big moves to turn this team into a possible contender. The Wizards traded for Marcin Gortat in the preseason to make up for the loss of Emeka Okafor. They traded for Andre Miller, and signed veterans like Al Harrington and Drew Gooden.
However, it has been the emergence of a couple of young superstars that have made the difference. The 23-year-old John Wall (19.3 ppg, 8.8 apg) has turned into a real leader this season while playing in all 82 games. The 20-year-old Beal (17.1 ppg, 40.2% 3-pointers) can fill it up with the best of them. Gortat (13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Nene (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have played well inside.
The most overlooked player on the entire team is Trevor Ariza (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 aspg, 40.7% 3-pointers), who does a little bit of everything. He will defend the best player on the other team night in and night out, and he has really improved his outside shooting to make him an all-around player. He helped the Wizards win four straight games to close out the season, which had them avoiding Miami in the first round as a potential No. 7 seed.
The Wizards shared the ball very well this season, ranking 7th in the league in assists at 17.7 per game. Their unselfishness helped them finish a respectable 16th in offensive efficiency, averaging 103.3 points per 100 possessions. This is where they have a huge advantage over the sometimes stagnant Bulls, who rank a woeful 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Chicago can go for long stretches without scoring.
This has actually been a favorable match-up for Washington in recent years believe it or not. It not only won two of three meetings this season, but dating back to last year, it has won four of the past six meetings. The Wizards have done so behind a dominant effort defensively. They have held to the Bulls to an average of 88.5 points per game in their last six meetings.
Washington is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season. The Wizards are 27-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Washington is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games. Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.
|
04-20-14 |
Charlotte Bobcats +10 v. Miami Heat |
Top |
88-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
20* Bobcats/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Charlotte +10
The Bobcats were the surprise of the season this year. They made the playoffs while finishing with a winning record for just the second time in franchise history. Steve Clifford deserves Coach of the Year consideration for the job that he has done this season. He took a team that went 21-61 in 2013-13 to a 43-39 club this season, improving them by a whopping 22 victories.
Clifford doesn’t deserve all the credit. Al Jefferson probably should get the most of it with the MVP-caliber season he had. He proved to be an excellent offseason acquisition and was really the only player of any significance that this team added. Jefferson put up 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game as he was a double-double waiting to happen.
Kemba Walker (17.7 ppg, 6.1 apg) also took his game to the next level this season. Gerald Henderson (14.0 ppg) can fill it up, Josh McRoberts (8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.3 apg) can do it all, and Gary Neal (11.2 ppg) was a nice pick up before the trade deadline. This is a team that heads into the playoffs with a lot of confidence after going 7-1 over their final eight games of the season as they nearly moved all the way up to the No. 5 seed in the East.
The Bobcats have been a completely different team since they gave up 61 points to James in that loss. Indeed, they have won 16 of their last 22 games overall to clinch a playoff spot. They went 7-1 over the final eight games of the season. Miami, meanwhile, lost five of its last six games heading into the postseason.
The one weakness for the Heat is their post play, which can be suspect at times, especially defensively. That’s why they signed Greg Oden, but he’s not going to play that big of a role for them. Jefferson is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds over his last 10 games. He should have his way with the Heat in this series, which gives the Bobcats a fighting chance.
Charlotte is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive games as a favorite. The Bobcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. They took Miami to overtime and lost by a single point to them in another game this year, so they are clearly closing the gap in this head-to-head series. Bet the Bobcats Sunday.
|
04-19-14 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5 |
Top |
101-93 |
Loss |
-106 |
19 h 41 m |
Show
|
20* Hawks/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5
The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now due to their poor finish to the regular season. They should be an even bigger favorite over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1. I'll take advantage and back the Pacers in what I expect to be a double-digit victory by game's end.
Indiana is the best team in the East in my opinion, and while many don't believe it deserves the No. 1 seed because of its finish, the fact of the matter is that it finished with the best record. This team easily got bored in the second half of the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and will have them coming together as a team.
The only reason the Hawks made the playoffs is because the Eastern Conference is so terrible as a whole. Its 38-44 record was good enough to hold off the lowly New York Knicks for the final spot. This is a team that went 1-14 over a 15-game stretch this season. They stand little chance of competing in this series considering their best player, Al Horford, was lost for the season.
The one constant with the Pacers is that they defend, and defense wins in the playoffs. They led the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. To compare, Atlanta ranked 14th in defensive efficiency, giving up 104.1 points per 100 possessions.
These Indiana players will be chomping at the bit to hit the court after resting down the stretch. They should have one of their best efforts of the season in Game 1 because of it, while also playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the negative publicity they have received through the media for their struggles over the past month-plus.
The Hawks are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days' rest. Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The favorite it 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series. Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Saturday.
|
04-19-14 |
Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7 |
|
109-105 |
Loss |
-107 |
15 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* Warriors/Clippers Game 1 Line Mistake on Los Angeles -7
Despite playing without Chris Paul for 20 games this season due to injury, the Clippers managed to win 57 games and finish as the No. 3 seed in the stacked Western Conference. When he returned to health, they went 20-5 over their final 20 games of the season. The fifth loss doesn't count because Paul didn't play in the season finale.
To put it bluntly, the Clippers are my favorite value bet to win the NBA Championship. The trio of Paul, Blake Griffin and head coach Doc Rivers makes them an enticing bet not only in Game 1, but to win it all. Griffin really stepped up his game in Paul's absence this year, averaging 24.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.
What makes the Clippers so tough to deal with is that they rank 1st in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.4 points per 100 possessions. That is impressive in Rivers' first year on the job, especially when you consider the fact that Paul missed 20 games and J.J. Redick (15.2 ppg) missed 47. Having the best sixth man in the league in Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg) coming off the bench doesn't hurt, either.
Los Angeles will have a huge advantage in the paint in Game 1 due to the absence of Andrew Bogut for the Warriors. Bogut is out indefinitely with fractured ribs. To explain his importance, consider that the Warriors allowed 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and 100.5 with him off during the regular season. Golden State simply isn't the same team without him in the lineup because of his defense.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won seven straight meetings. Los Angeles is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Golden State, winning by 13, 11 and 26 points. I fully expect another double-digit blowout in Game 1 this afternoon. Take the Clippers in Game 1 Saturday.
|
04-16-14 |
Golden State Warriors +8 v. Denver Nuggets |
|
116-112 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8
The Golden State Warriors get the call Wednesday as a massive 8-point underdog to the Denver Nuggets. Sure, the fact that they are locked into the No. 6 seed is concerning because they are likely to rest their starters, but this team is deep enough to stay within eight of Denver.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, lack depth right now due to injury. They are expected to be without Ty Lawson, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee. Now, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after falling 105-117 to the Clippers last night. They are going to have a hard time getting up for this game knowing that they will be facing the Warriors without Curry, Thompson and Lee.
Indeed, the Warriors have a deep bench. Harrison Barnes, Jermaine O'Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marreese Speights, Draymond Green and Steve Blake have all played significant minutes for them this season. This crew is more than capable of not only staying within 8 points of depleted Denver, but pulling off the upset as well.
Golden State is 13-2 ATS off two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons. The Warriors are 16-5 ATS in April games over the last two years. Golden State is 50-32 ATS as a road underdog over the last three years. The Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest. The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Nuggets, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Denver. Take the Warriors Wednesday.
|
04-16-14 |
Brooklyn Nets +7 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
85-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets +7
The Brooklyn Nets are still playing for something. They can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win tonight, but a loss would have them slotted as the No. 6 seed. That means if they were to survive the first round, they'd have to play Miami in the second round. They want the No. 5 seed because then they'd get Indiana in the second.
The Nets were beaten badly by the New York Knicks last night, which has public perception believing that they have quit. I'm not buying it, and by Paul Pierce's comments after the game, it's clear that this contest against Cleveland is important for them to get things figured out heading into the playoffs.
"(This) was an example of how not to take a step forward," said Paul Pierce, who had 13 points in just 20 minutes. "We were off our game offensively, defensively, all phases of the game and that's not how you want to go into the playoffs."
Cleveland was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 116-119 loss to Milwaukee on April 11 in its third-to-last game. It did not even show up against Boston the next night, losing 99-111 as a 9-point favorite. It won't show up tonight, either, and it will also be playing without Luol Deng (back).
Brooklyn has won 10 of its last 13 meetings with Cleveland overall. In fact, it has only lost by more than 5 points to the Cavaliers once in its last 14 meetings. That makes for a 13-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to tonight's spread of +6.5. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
|
04-15-14 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 220 |
|
105-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers. That is evident when you look at tonight's posted total compared to the previous three totals set in the first three meetings of the season between these teams.
Denver and Los Angeles have combined for 203, 231 and 210 points in their three meetings this season. The total sets of those games were 205, 215 and 216.5, respectively. Now, this number has been set at 220, which alone shows that there is clearly value here. Also, 16 of the last 17 meetings between these teams have seen 215 or fewer combined points, which makes for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
"We're still playing for something," said point guard Chris Paul, scoring 23.1 points a game and shooting 47.1 percent from 3-point range over his last eight. "We can keep building confidence on defense. We're at our best when we're running and getting stops."
I like the Clippers' chances of slowing down Denver tonight. The Nuggets are hampered by a ton of injuries right now, which makes points harder to come by. They are expected to be without their best player and floor general in Ty Lawson, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. They are also without J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee, and could be without Darrell Arthur (knee, doubtful).
The Clippers have combined with 16 of their last 17 opponents to score 220 or fewer points, so their defense has certainly been improving of late. The Nuggets are coming off back-to-back games where they didn't combine for 200. They won 100-99 at Golden State and 101-94 versus Utah.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Nuggets last four games following a win. The UNDER is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 4-1 in Nuggets last five road games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Clippers last 12 home games overall. The UNDER is 13-3 in in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
04-14-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets -5.5 |
Top |
98-104 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* Spurs/Rockets NBA TV No-Brainer on Houston -5.5
The San Antonio Spurs have already clinched the top seed in the Western Conference and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Their concern will be resting their starters to get fresh heading into the playoffs rather than beating the Houston Rockets tonight.
Houston (53-27), meanwhile, still has something to play for. While it is certain that it will play Portland (53-28) in the first-round of the playoffs, home-court advantage is still up in the air. A win tonight over the Spurs would give the Rockets the No. 4 seed due to their 3-1 series lead over the Blazers this season.
The Rockets had Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverly both return from injury last time out in their win over Phoenix, which is a huge boost to the lineup. They will be going for the season sweep of the Spurs after beating them 112-106 and 111-98 on the road, as well as 97-90 at home. This will be a possible second-round match-up, and the Spurs have to be worried.
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%. Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with San Antonio. These three trends combined for a perfect 15-0 system backing the home team tonight. Bet the Rockets Monday.
|
04-14-14 |
Charlotte Bobcats -3.5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
95-93 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats -3.5
After winning six of their last seven games, the Charlotte Bobcats (41-39) have a chance to secure their second winning season in franchise history tonight with a victory over the Atlanta Hawks (37-43). However, that's now their only motivation heading into this one.
Charlotte still has a chance for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference as it trails the Washington Wizards (42-38) by one game for that spot. Moving up to No. 6 would be huge as it would mean avoiding either Miami or Indiana in the first round of the playoffs. The Bobcats also want to put an and to an 11-game losing streak to the Hawks in this series.
That shouldn't be a problem considering Atlanta won't even show up for this game tonight. The Hawks are locked into the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference after their 98-85 victory over the Miami Heat last time out clinched the final playoff spot for them. That makes this a huge letdown spot for Atlanta, which will be more concerned with getting its starters rest for the playoffs.
The Bobcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Charlotte is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Bobcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record. Charlotte is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games. Atlanta is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 home games. The Hawks are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Bobcats Monday.
|
04-13-14 |
Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. New York Knicks |
Top |
89-100 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5
The Chicago Bulls are currently one game ahead of the Toronto Raptors for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. They want to hold on to this spot so that they would either face Washington or Charlotte instead of Brooklyn in the first round of the playoffs. They have certainly been motivated of late to get the No. 3 seed.
That has been evident considering Chicago is a perfect 7-0 in its last seven games overall while going 6-1 ATS in the process. It has a whopping five double-digit wins during this stretch as it has clearly been playing its best basketball of the season. I look for the Bulls to roll the Knicks tonight, too.
New York has nothing to play for. It was officially eliminated from the playoffs last night when the Atlanta Hawks beat the Miami Heat 98-85. I faded Cleveland last night against Boston in an outright loss because it was officially eliminated from the playoffs. Just like Cleveland didn't show up, I expect the Knicks to fold in this one and to not even show up mentally, either.
"We can't get mad at Atlanta, we can't get mad at anybody but ourselves," New York's J.R. Smith said. "We dug this grave, we have to lie in it."
Chicago is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with New York. The Knicks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days' rest. New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five Sunday games. Bet the Bulls Sunday.
|
04-12-14 |
Boston Celtics +8 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
111-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Boston Celtics +8
The Cleveland Cavaliers have no business being this heavily favored over the Boston Celtics tonight. They aren't even going to show up for this game, so asking them to win by 9-plus points to beat is simply asking too much.
The reason they won't show up is because they were officially eliminated from the playoffs last night with their 116-119 road loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, coupled with Atlanta's win at Brooklyn. I look for them to suffer an emotional hangover from that defeat and to not even show up at all mentally tonight.
It's clear to me that Boston has not quit. It beat Charlotte 106-103 at home last night in a very meaningful game for the Bobcats. Each of its last four games have been decided by single-digits. In fact, 11 of its last 14 games have been decided by single-digits. This one will be as well, and I actually believe the Celtics have an excellent chance to win this game outright given the circumstances.
Boston goes for the season sweep over Cleveland tonight. This has been a one-sided series of late to say the least as the Celtics have taken six of the last eight meetings. Both of their losses during this stretch have come by 6 points or fewer. You would honestly be foolish to put your money on the Cavs tonight given the situation.
Cleveland is 10-27 ATS in its last 37 home games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days. The Cavaliers are 9-20 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on no rest. Take Boston Saturday.
|
04-11-14 |
Phoenix Suns +3 v. San Antonio Spurs |
|
104-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +3
The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. Off a big win over Dallas yesterday to essentially clinch home-court advantage in the West, they do not care one bit to win this game Friday.
That is evident by the fact that head coach Greg Popovich is expected to rest both Tony Parker and Tim Duncan tonight. Without these two on the floor, this team just isn't very good. They certainly have no business even being favored tonight over a team that needs the win like Phoenix.
Indeed, the Suns are currently the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. They are only percentage points ahead of No. 8 seed Dallas, and one game ahead of No. 9 Memphis. A win tonight would go a long way in helping them inch closer to clinching a playoff spot.
Phoenix has been thriving under the pressure of all these must-win games down the stretch. In fact, it has won 10 of its last 12 games overall, which includes victories over Portland and OKC. This will only be its 2nd game in 5 days, so unlike San Antonio, it will be well-rested and ready to go tonight.
The Suns are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS loss. Phoenix is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 road games. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Phoenix is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games when playing on one day of rest. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Bet the Suns Friday.
|
04-11-14 |
Indiana Pacers +6 v. Miami Heat |
|
86-98 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* Pacers/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana +6
Indiana rested its starters at just the right time against the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday. Somehow, resting all five starters, the Pacers were able to beat Milwaukee 104-102. Now, they find themselves in first place in the Eastern Conference with a half-game lead over Miami.
The Pacers had really been struggling up to this point, losing 12 of their last 20 overall. I believe this breather that the starters got, plus the new life with the No. 1 seed at stake tonight, will have this team playing very inspired basketball tonight. It will be enough to stay within 6 points or Miami, likely pulling off the upset.
The Heat haven't been playing that well themselves. They have actually lost 11 of their last 21 games overall, including two in a row to Brooklyn and Memphis. Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen and Greg Oden are all questionable to return tonight. Even if they go, I still like Indiana's chances of covering.
This will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Heat, while the Pacers' starting five have essentially had the last four days off having last played on April 6. The two meetings between these teams this season were decided by a combined 4 points, so there's a very good chance this 6-point spread comes into play tonight. Roll with the Pacers Friday.
|
04-11-14 |
Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Brooklyn Nets |
Top |
93-88 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks +5.5
The Brooklyn Nets have nothing to play for. They are three games behind Chicago and Toronto for the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the East, and three in front of Charlotte and Washington for the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds. They are all but locked into fifth place in the East.
While the Nets likely won't show up tonight because of it, the Hawks have everything to play for. They lead the New York Knicks by two games for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. Given these motivational angles, the Hawks should not be an underdog in this match-up tonight.
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record. Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast division opponents. Bet the Hawks Friday.
|
04-11-14 |
New York Knicks +5.5 v. Toronto Raptors |
|
108-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +5.5
The New York Knicks are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They trail the Atlanta Hawks by two games for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference with four games to go. That makes this a must-win game for them tonight.
New York has fought real hard over the past month just to give itself a chance to make the playoffs. It is not about to quit now. It has gone 12-5 in its last 17 games overall. Now, it has had four days off since last losing to Miami on the road on April 6, so it is well-rested and ready to go.
Toronto did beat New York by a combined 27 points in back-to-back games on December 27 and 28. However, Carmelo Anthony did not play in either of those contests. Anthony is expected to go tonight and should be healed from a shoulder injury suffered against Miami.
New York is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on three or more days of rest. The Raptors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Take the Knicks Friday.
|
04-10-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks -2 |
Top |
109-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* Spurs/Mavericks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas -2
The Dallas Mavericks are very close to clinching a playoff spot. They lead the 9th-place Memphis Grizzlies by 1.5 games with only three to play. They don't want to mess around as they'd like to clinch it as soon as possible to perhaps get their starters some rest in the finale.
Dallas has been handling the pressure of these huge games down the stretch very well. It has gone a perfect 4-0 in its last four games overall despite playing all four on the road. That included a 113-107 road victory over the Los Angeles Clippers last Thursday.
San Antonio is kind of limping into the playoffs as it essentially has little to play for right now. It leads Oklahoma City by three games for the No. 1 seed in the West with four to play, so it really has that locked up. It has certainly been playing like it the past couple games.
The Spurs are 1-2 in their last three games overall with blowout road losses to Oklahoma City (94-106) and Minnesota (91-110). Tony Parker is now resting a back injury and is doubtful to play tonight. Manu Ginobli is resting his calf injury and listed as doubtful as well. It's clear that the Spurs are more worried about getting healthy than winning right now.
Dallas will be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak in this series. The Mavericks are 31-15 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.
|
04-09-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers -3 |
Top |
107-101 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
25* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -3
The Los Angeles Clippers have a chance to pull within a half-game of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a victory tonight. That would be huge because they are likely to match up in the second round of the playoffs, and home-court advantage would be big. The Clippers would also own the tiebreaker having taken 3 of 4 from the Thunder this season.
The Pacific Division champion Clippers have been playing as well as anyone since a 125-117 road victory over the Thunder on February 23. They have gone 18-3 since that point while averaging 110.8 points per game. They lead the league in scoring at 107.8 points per game on the season and are clicking at the right time.
Los Angeles will be well-rested and ready to go having had two days off since a 120-97 home victory over the Lakers on Sunday. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is running on fumes. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days after last night's win at Sacramento. This is one of the toughest situations for any team, especially this late in the year when everyone is already worn down.
The Clippers are 32-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|
04-09-14 |
Chicago Bulls -2.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves |
|
102-87 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a big win over the San Antonio Spurs last night. That sets them up for a letdown spot here tonight against the Chicago Bulls. The T'Wolves will be fatigued, and the win wasn't really that impressive as the Spurs rested Tony Parker and are looking ahead to the playoffs.
Chicago, meanwhile, will be going full speed ahead tonight in hopes of earning the No. 3 seed in the East. It is currently tied with the Toronto Raptors with an identical 45-32 record for that No. 3 spot, but loses out via tiebreaker. Getting that No. 3 seed and likely avoiding Miami in the second round would actually be pretty big.
The Bulls have been acting like they're gunning for it over the last couple weeks as they've saved their best basketball of the season for last. They have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning four times by double-digits. That includes road wins over fellow Eastern Conference playoff contenders in Atlanta (105-92) and Washington (96-78).
Chicago will be well-rested and ready to go tonight. It has not played since Saturday's 18-point win over the Wizards, giving it three days off to rest and prepare for Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. This is a short-handed team as it is with Chase Budinger out, and Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic listed as doubtful tonight.
The Bulls are 24-9 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 35-55 ATS in April home games since 1996. The T'Wolves are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after having won three of their last four games. The Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|
04-09-14 |
Philadelphia 76ers +13.5 v. Toronto Raptors |
|
114-125 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5
The Philadelphia 76ers have been a huge money maker for me down the stretch of the season. There is this perception out there that they have packed it in, which has forced oddsmakers to set their lines way higher than they should be. These players clearly have not quit.
That's evident by the fact that Philadelphia is a sensational 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. It has beaten both Detroit and Boston in two lof its last five games, and it has stayed withing single-digits of Atlanta on the road and Brooklyn at home during this same stretch. In fact, the 76ers have only lost by more than 10 points three times in their last 11 games, which were their three non-covers.
Asking Toronto to win by 14-plus points to beat us tonight is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider that it could be without two starters in Kyle Lowry (17.4 ppg, 7.6 apg) and Amir Johnson (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg). Lowry has missed the past four games with a knee injury, while Johnson has sat out the last three games with an ankle injury. Both are currently listed as questionable, and it may be foolish to bring them back against a team like the 76ers.
This is an Atlantic Division rivalry folks, so the 76ers clearly aren't going to lay down for the Raptors. Despite going 0-3 against the Raptors in the first three meetings of this series, they have all been very competitive. The 76ers have lost all three meetings by 10 points or fewer, and I look for that trend to continue tonight with the possibility that they actually pull off the upset.
Philadelphia is a dominant 10-1 (91%) ATS in its last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|
04-09-14 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Orlando Magic +5.5 |
Top |
111-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +5.5
The Brooklyn Nets are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They just beat the Miami Heat 88-87 last night, completing the four-game season sweep of the defending NBA champions. It's only human nature for these players to suffer a letdown off such a big accomplishment.
I look for the Orlando Magic to knock the Nets off their pedestal tonight. The Magic have not played since Saturday, having three days off to prepare for the Nets in this one. Meanwhile, Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days, which is a very tough situation this late in the season for any team.
The Magic clearly have not quit. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games overall, which includes wins over playoff contenders in Portland (95-85) and Charlotte (110-105). They also beat Minnesota (100-92) at home last time out, and what's important about that is the fact that the Timberwolves were coming off a 1-point victory over the Heat the night before, so they were in this same letdown spot that the Nets are in.
The Nets are just 16-23 on the road this season, while the Magic are a very respectable 18-20 at home. Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Orlando is 9-2 (82%) ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games overall. Take Orlando Wednesday.
|
04-08-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
91-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Timberwolves UNDER 208.5
The San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The books have set the bar way too high for this game, especially when you look at their recent head-to-head history and the injury concerns coming in.
The Spurs and Timberwolves have combined for 203 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings overall. Each of the last five meetings in Minnesota have seen 203 or fewer combined points as the games have tended to be lower scoring at the Target Center.
San Antonio will be without Tony Parker (16.8 ppg, 5.9 apg) tonight, while Minnesota is expected to be without Nikola Pekovic (17.4 ppg), Kevin Martin (19.2 ppg) and Chase Budinger (6.7 ppg). So, the Spurs are without their leading scorer, while the Timberwolves are without two of their top three scorers.
Minnesota is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams that make at least 48% of their shots over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 8-0 in Spurs last eight games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 7-0 in Spurs last seven games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Throw in that they have combined for 203 or fewer points in their last five meetings in Minnesota, and we have a perfect combined 28-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
04-07-14 |
Kentucky v. Connecticut +3 |
Top |
54-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
20* UConn/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Connecticut +3
The UConn Huskies have been disrespected the entire NCAA Tournament. That's evident by the fact that they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in all five games despite being an underdog in four of them. They are using being disrespected as motivation to win a title.
People are quick to dismiss the fact that the Huskies have forced Michigan State and Florida into their worst games of the season over the past two rounds. They beat the Spartans 60-54 while holding them to 39.1% shooting and forcing 16 turnovers. They beat the Gators 63-53 while limiting them to 38.8% shooting.
Both Keith Appling and Scottie Wilbekin has horrible games at the point guard position due to the perimeter defense of Ryan Boatright, who combined with Shabazz Napier to form the best defensive guard tandem in the country. They will make life hell on the Harrison twins for Kentucky tonight, which will be a big key to victory.
Napier (17.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.9 apg) has been the best player in the tournament thus far. He has scored an average of 21.0 points per game, and even when he only had 12 against Florida, DeAndre Daniels stepped up with 20 points and 10 rebounds, Boatright added 13 points and 6 boards, and Niles Giffey had 11 points. This clearly isn't a one man show.
Kentucky has been fortunate to make it this far thanks to three last-second game-winners from Aaron Harrison. This Wildcats' team filled with freshman stars doesn't like when one guy gets all the credit. Harrison has gotten all the credit from the media because of his clutch shots, but in all reality it's not all him. I believe that could work against Kentucky and divide this locker room, rather than bring it together.
The Wildcats remain without Willie Cauley-Stein, which makes them extremely vulnerable defensively. Cauley-Stein is averaging 6.8 points. 6.1 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game this season. No other player on the team averages one block per game. Without his presence in the middle, this is just an average defensive team. I look for UConn to exploit it by attacking the rim without fear tonight.
UConn is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. UConn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. Bet UConn Monday.
|
04-06-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns +3 |
|
115-122 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* Thunder/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +3
The Phoenix Suns (45-31) have been the most underrated team in the league this season, hands down. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as they are a home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. I'll take advantage.
Phoenix is tied with Memphis for the No. 8 spot in the playoffs in the West, and one-half game behind Dallas for the No. 7 seed. It clearly won't be lacking any motivation tonight. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, appears to be stuck in the No. 2 spot without being able to move up or down barring a huge run or a big collapse. This game is much less important to the Thunder.
The Suns have handled the pressure very well down the stretch, winning seven of their last nine games overall, including a 109-93 victory at Portland as a 4.5-point underdog on Friday night. They have even won six of their last eight road games, and a big reason for their success has been the healthy return of Eric Bledsoe, who combines with Goran Dragac to form one of the best backcourts in the league.
Phoenix is 28-9 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season. The Suns are 13-2 ATS versus teams who are called for 2-plus more fouls than their opponents this season. Phoenix is 49-26 ATS in all games this season. The Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Phoenix is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games when playing on one days rest. Roll with the Suns Sunday.
|
04-06-14 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 191 |
|
92-112 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 191
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs. I believe the books have set the bar too high in this one, and that it shouldn't be set above 190 points.
These teams are very familiar with one another due to their playoff battles over the past couple of seasons. They have gone to overtime in four of their last 10 meetings, and even if you count the overtimes, they have combined for less than 200 points in nine of those 10 contests. That's how low-scoring this series has been.
Both teams have plenty to be motivated about tonight. San Antonio is trying to inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the West, while Memphis is trying to hang on to one of the final playoff spots in the West. As a result, I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a win tonight.
The UNDER is 20-8 in Grizzlies last 28 road games. The UNDER is 10-3 in Grizzlies last 13 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games overall. The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
04-05-14 |
Kentucky -1.5 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
74-73 |
Loss |
-106 |
74 h 37 m |
Show
|
20* Kentucky/Wisconsin Final Four ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -1.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are 10 times better today than they were in the first half of the season. This young team filled with freshmen has improved by leaps and bounds. They now have the confidence after winning several close games to get here to come up big in a game of this caliber.
The Wildcats have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming to Florida (60-61) by a single point in the SEC Championship. That's the same Florida team that is in the midst of a 30-game winning streak right now.
Kentucky has had the toughest route to get to the Final Four. It has had to go through Kansas State, No. 1 Wichita State, No. 4 Louisville and No. 2 Michigan. It clearly feels like it can beat anyone in the country after going through that gauntlet.
I believe Wisconsin is a worse team than each of the last three teams that Kentucky has beaten. The Badgers were fortunate to beat Oregon in the second round after erasing a double-digit halftime deficit. They also needed overtime to get by Arizona.
Like Oregon gave Wisconsin trouble due to its athleticism, Kentucky is going to give the Badgers all it wants and more in the athleticism department. The Wildcats are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents 41-31. The Badgers are only outrebounding opponents 33-32 on the year. Kentucky doesn't start a player that is shorter than 6', 6" and it's ability to win the boards will be the difference in this one.
Kentucky is 13-2 ATS in its last 14 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in all tournament games this season. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the last three seasons. Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Wildcats at 8-1 SU in neutral court games this year. Bet Kentucky Saturday.
|
04-05-14 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 |
|
105-101 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are showing tremendous value as a double-digit home underdog to the Brooklyn Nets Saturday. I'll take advantage and back this team, which has been a big money maker for me over the last month of the season.
Indeed, the 76ers are a very profitable 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, raking in solid profits for guys like myself who can stomach betting them. They have stayed within 10 points of Indiana (twice), Chicago (twice) and New York over the past three weeks. They just went into Boston and won 111-102 last night.
The Brooklyn Nets have been playing well, but they are kind of stuck in a bad spot right now. They would be the No. 5 seed in the East if the season were to end today, trailing the No. 4 seed by 2.5 games with only seven games to play. Their chances of getting home-court advantage in the first round are slim and they know it.
The first meeting between these teams this season was a blowout in Brooklyn's favor as Joe Johnson made 10 3-pointers, and Michael Carter-Williams sat out that game due to injury. However, the last two have gone right down to the wire. Philadelphia beat Brooklyn 121-120 as a 6-point home dog on December 20, and lost 102-108 as a 9-point road dog on February 3. I look for this 4th and final meeting to be decided by single-digits, too.
The Nets are just 14-23 SU & 17-20 ATS in all road games this season. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The 76ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Philadelphia is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Brooklyn. Bet the 76ers Saturday.
|
04-05-14 |
Connecticut v. Florida -6 |
|
63-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
71 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* UConn/Florida Final Four No-Brainer on Florida -6
The Florida Gators (36-2) have proven to be more than worthy of their top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have now won 30 straight games while dominating their way to the Final Four. They are the hottest team in the field, hands down.
All four of Florida’s victories in the big dance have come by double-digits with wins over Albany (67-55), Pittsburgh (61-45), UCLA (79-68) and Dayton (62-52). No other team can even come close to claiming that. Now, the Gators only have to win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.
What makes Florida so difficult to deal with is its ability to play all kinds of different defenses. Billy Donovan will deploy man-to-man, full court press, and several different zones depending on the opponent. Give him a whole week to prepare for UConn, and you can bet he’ll give his team the best chance to win by doing everything they can to shut down Shabazz Napier.
Napier has single-handedly carried UConn this far, but his run of greatness ends Saturday. He has averaged 23.3 points per game in the big dance while scoring 19-plus points in all four games. Even though he did score 26 in a 65-64 home win over the Gators in their first meeting this year, he'll be up against a much better team that has not lost since that contest. This is a revenge game for Florida, which only adds fuel to its fire.
The Gators are led in scoring by Casey Prather (13.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Scottie Wilbekin (13.4 ppg) and Michael Frazier II (12.6 ppg). Patric Young (10.8 ppg, 6. rpg), Dorian Finney-Smith (8.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Will Yeguete (5.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) handle the dirty work inside. This is just a very balanced team that can beat you a number of different ways, but they do so mostly with their 3rd-ranked scoring defense (57.6 ppg) in the country.
UConn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following four consecutive wins. Florida is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 NCAA Tournament games. The Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Rarely will you get this team as this small of a favorite against anyone, and we'll take advantage as the Gators likely win their 5th straight game by double-digits. Take Florida Saturday.
|
04-04-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets UNDER 212.5 |
|
107-111 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 28 m |
Show
|
15* Thunder/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 212.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets tonight. Both teams are still worried about playoff seeding, so the defensive intensity should be high in this one, especially since it's being nationally televised on ESPN.
Believe it or not, these teams tend to play in defensive battles when they get together. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. Dating back further, the Thunder and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings, which makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 212.5 points.
There are two key injuries in this one that will also help keep the final combined score UNDER the posted total. The most important is Russell Westbrook (21.3 ppg, 6.9 apg), who is sitting out to rest his knee following the second of a back-to-back. The other is Dwight Howard (18.5 ppg, 12.3 apg), who is doubtful with an ankle injury. Sure, Howard's defense will be missed, but Omer Asik (5.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg) is his replacement. Asik is nearly the same player defensively as Howard, but not even close to the same player offensively.
Plays on the UNDER on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving two good excellent shooting teams (>=47%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) after 42+ games are 34-8 (81%) since 1996. Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 33-10 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.
Oklahoma City is 14-5 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The UNDER is 31-14 in Thunder's last 45 games off a home win by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last five vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last five vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
04-04-14 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Utah Jazz -2.5 |
|
96-100 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5
Sure, the Utah Jazz have lost 16 of their last 18 games overall which would make most believe that they have quit. A closer look shows that they have simply played a gauntlet of a schedule and that they clearly have not quit.
Only three of those 16 losses have come against teams that aren't currently in the playoff hunt. The two wins came against Philadelphia and Orlando, which are teams not in the playoff hunt. One of the losses came to New Orleans on March 28 by a final of 95-102 on the road, which places the Jazz in revenge mode a week later.
New Orleans is depleted right now, which is why it stands no chance of covering in this game tonight. Its top four scorers in Anthony Davis (21.1 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.8 bpg), Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg), Eric Gordon (15.4 ppg) and Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) are all expected to miss tonight's game. Anderson and Holiday are for sure out, while Davis and Gordon are doubtful.
Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series between Utah and New Orleans. The home team is 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings. The Jazz are 4-0 straight up in their last four home meetings with the Pelicans. New Orleans is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 meetings in Utah. The Pelicans are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 road games. Bet the Jazz Friday.
|
04-04-14 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 185.5 |
|
90-102 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 185.5
The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls will take part in a defensive battle tonight. While this is a low total, the books have not set it nearly low enough. There is still a ton of value in backing the UNDER, especially when you look at recent meetings between these teams.
The UNDER is 3-0 in three meetings between the Bucks and Bulls this season. They have combined for 152, 181 and 153 points for an average combined score of 162 points, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 185.5. As you can see, there is a ton of value with this UNDER based off head-to-head history.
Milwaukee has been atrocious offensively in two of its last three games, scoring 67 and 77 points in losses to Miami. That's easy to understand when you consider how depleted the Bucks are right now. Both O.J. Mayo (11.7 ppg) and Ersan Ilyasova (11.2 ppg) recently went out with injuries. This team is led by Brandon Knight, Ramon Sessions and Khris Middleton offensively now, which is not good.
Chicago is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams that are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 29-13 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Chicago is 21-7 to the UNDER as a home favorite this year. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
04-04-14 |
Detroit Pistons +10 v. Brooklyn Nets |
Top |
104-116 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +10
The Detroit Pistons clearly have not packed it in even though they are out of the playoff hunt. Their last two games have resulted in a win over Milwaukee and a 94-101 road loss at Indiana as a 10.5-point underdog. Those two effort show that they have not quit.
Brooklyn is in a tough spot here emotionally. It is currently the No. 5 seed in the East while trailing the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls by 2.5 games for the No. 3 and No. 4 seed with only eight games remaining. Its chances of earning home-court advantage in the first round are slim, and it knows it. The Nets could be more worried about finding rest for their players here down the stretch.
Simply put, Detroit has Brooklyn's number as this is a terrible match-up for the Nets. Indeed, the Pistons are 3-0 against the Nets this season, winning by 12, 4 and 16 points. Their huge height advantage has been the biggest reason as the Pistons have outrebounded the Nets by a combined 38 boards in the three wins. Getting double-digit points here is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.
Plays on road teams (DETROIT) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 89-33 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. Detroit is 9-0 ATS in April games over the past two seasons. Take the Pistons Friday.
|
04-04-14 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 203 |
Top |
98-117 |
Loss |
-104 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
25* NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Hawks UNDER 203
The stakes are high in this game between Cleveland and Atlanta, which is why I fully expect a defensive battle. Atlanta is percentage points behind New York for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, while Cleveland is two games behind New York for the same spot.
You can bet that both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a win in this contest, which is the most important of the season for both squads. I also expect that pressure to affect the offenses as neither team will shoot it very well in this one.
Not counting overtime, the Hawks and Cavaliers have combined for 197 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings in this series. That fact alone shows that there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this one, especially given the pressure-packed circumstance for both teams.
Cleveland is 7-0 to the UNDER off a road win scoring 110 or more points this season. The UNDER is 6-0 in Hawks last six games following a loss. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Hawks last 12 games following an ATS loss. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
04-04-14 |
Indiana Pacers +1 v. Toronto Raptors |
|
94-102 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +1
The Indiana Pacers trail the Miami Heat by only percentage points for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Clearly, this team is lacking no motivation with only six games to play. I look for them to take care of business against the short-handed Toronto Raptors tonight.
Sure, Indiana has been playing its worst basketball of the season, losing five of its last seven games. However, it is coming off a confidence-building 101-94 win over Detroit. I believe these recent struggles have provided us with a ton of line value here tonight as I believe the Pacers should be in the neighborhood of a 5-point favorite.
Toronto is expected to be without its best player tonight in Kyle Lowry (17.4 ppg, 7.6 apg, 4.8 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Also, starting forward Amir Johnson (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is questionable after leaving early Wednesday against Houston with an ankle injury. Chances are, since he didn't return, he won't be ready two days later.
Plays on road underdogs (INDIANA) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS since 1996. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win. Roll with the Pacers Friday.
|
04-03-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
94-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 209.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder (54-19) and San Antonio Spurs (59-16) square off tonight in a battle between the top two teams in the Western Conference. I look for this to be a low-scoring, defensive battle pertaining to tonight's total set of 209.5
This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these teams. This is the highest total set of any of the four games as the previous three were 205, 207.5 and 202.5, respectively. That fact alone lets you know that there is some value on the UNDER here.
A big reason for the inflation is that these teams have combined for 216 and 213 points in their last two meetings. However, in that 216-point outing, the Thunder shot 54.2% as a team while the Spurs shot 53.3%. Neither team will come close to matching those blistering percentages in this one. Five of the past seven meetings in this series have seen 200 or fewer combined points, so the past two meetings were clearly the aberration.
Both teams still have plenty to play for, which is why the level of intensity defensively should be a very high level. The Thunder are trying to fend off the Clippers for the No. 2 seed in the West while inching closer to the Spurs, who want to clinch the No. 1 seed ASAP to give their starters some rest down the stretch.
The Spurs are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 7-0 to the UNDER in their last seven following an ATS win, and 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight games playing on 0 days of rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last four home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. These five trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
04-03-14 |
Minnesota v. SMU -3 |
|
65-63 |
Loss |
-106 |
24 h 52 m |
Show
|
15* Minnesota/SMU NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on SMU -3
I've said all along that SMU is the best team not to make the field of 68 in the big dance. I am sticking by that statement as I look for the Mustangs to prove that they are the best team outside of the NCAA Tournament by not only beating Minnesota for the title, but also covering the 3-point spread.
There are several reasons to back SMU in this one. My personal favorite reason is that they played the early game on Tuesday in the semifinals, so players and coaches were able to watch Minnesota play in the late game to get down its tendencies.
The Golden Gophers would go to overtime against Florida State, so the Mustangs got an extra long look at them. Head coach Larry Brown will have a tremendous game plan for his team coming into this one because of it.
Sure, it's concerning that Rick Pitino can give son Richard some advice on how to beat SMU, but let's be honest. Minnesota is nowhere near the same team as Louisville. The Cardinals' press really hurt the Mustangs this season, but the Golden Gophers' press is laughable compared to that of Louisville.
The Mustangs are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They give up just 62.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting, which is extremely impressive considering their opponents average 70.4 points on 44.0% shooting. They are also efficient offensively, scoring 71.2 points per game on 48.3% shooting.
SMU's route to get here has been much tougher than Minnesota's. The Mustangs have had to beat three teams from major division 1 conferences in LSU, California and Clemson. The Golden Gophers have only had to beat one, which came against FSU in overtime. The other three were against High Point, Saint Mary's and Southern Miss all at home by 8 points or fewer.
SMU is 6-0 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet SMU Thursday.
|
04-02-14 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 214 |
Top |
112-108 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 25 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Suns UNDER 214
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns. This will be the 4th and final meeting between these Pacific Division rivals, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.
The UNDER is 3-0 in the first three meetings between these teams. They did combine for 217 points last meeting, but the other two resulted in 200 and 195 combined points. That's an average of 204 combined points per game, which is 10 points less than tonight's posted total.
My biggest reason for backing the UNDER is that Los Angeles is expected to be without two of its top three scorers in Blake Griffin (24.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg) and Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg). Griffin is doubtful with a back injury, while Crawford is doubtful with an injured Achilles.
The Clippers are 16-4 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons. Phoenix is a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER in home games off two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more since 1996. The Suns are 16-5 to the UNDER off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more since 1996.
The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Clippers last 16 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Suns last four overall. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in this series, including a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings in Phoenix. Both teams have a lot to play for tonight, so look for the defensive intensity to be at a high level.
|
04-02-14 |
Charlotte Bobcats v. Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 |
|
123-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8.5
The Philadelphia 76ers continue to show tremendous value due to having one of the worst records in the league. This team has made me a lot of money of late, and I'm going to continue to back them because they are undervalued once again as an 8.5-point home underdog to Charlotte.
Sure, the Bobcats are improved this season and will make the playoffs, but they should not be this heavily favored against anyone at home let alone on the road. They are pretty much guaranteed either a No. 6 or a No. 7 seed in the East, so they really don't have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.
Philadelphia clearly has not quit. It has gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. That includes a 90-99 at Indiana as a 9.5-point dog, a 94-102 home loss to Chicago as a 13.5-point dog, a 92-93 home loss to New York as a 12-point dog, an 81-91 loss at Chicago as a 16-point dog, and a 123-98 home win versus Detroit as a 6-point dog.
The only big blowouts and non-covers suffered by the 76ers during this stretch came at San Antonio and at Houston, which can be expected as those are two of the best teams in the Western Conference. Many thought they would fold after ending their 26-game losing streak, but that wasn't the case last time out. They fought tough at Atlanta for four quarters before eventually losing 95-103 as a 12-point dog.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last nine meetings with Charlotte. It won its last home meeting with the Bobcats 95-92 on January 15 as a 2-point favorite. Now, it is an 8.5-point underdog, which just goes to show you how much value there is in this line.
Charlotte is 2-12 ATS revenging a close loss vs. opponent of 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Bobcats are 35-59 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons. The Bobcats are 3-12 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games over the last two years. Philadelphia is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the 76ers Wednesday.
|
04-01-14 |
Minnesota v. Florida State -1.5 |
Top |
64-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State -1.5
The Florida State Seminoles (22-13) and Minnesota Golden Gophers (23-13) square off in the NIT Semifinals tonight in Madison Square Garden. I look for the Seminoles to win this game and advance to the Championship behind their gritty defense.
Both teams will be motivated, but I believe the motivation is greater for the Seminoles. They actually lost to the Golden Gophers on the road by a final of 61-71 on December 3 earlier this season. They turned the ball over 17 times, and they'll want revenge from that defeat.
I've been much more impressed with FSU's path to get here. It did struggled with Florida Gulf Coast before beating Georgetown and Louisiana Tech, which are both better teams than anything Minnesota faced. The Golden Gophers have beaten High Point, Saint Mary's and Southern Miss all by 8 points or fewer at home.
The Seminoles only allow 66.4 points per game on 39.9% shooting, while the Gophers give up 68.0 points per game on 42.5% shooting. FSU has been improved on offense this year, too, scoring 71.1 points per game on 46.8% shooting. Minnesota is putting up 71.7 points on 44.8% shooting.
Minnesota is just 5-10 in all road games this season, while Florida State is 10-8 in games away from home. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games, while the Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. FSU is 10-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The Seminoles are 12-3 ATS off a home game this year. Bet Florida State Tuesday.
|
04-01-14 |
Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 205 |
|
122-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Mavericks UNDER 205
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks tonight. One look at the scores in the first three meetings between these teams this season and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.
Indeed, the Warriors and Mavs have met three times with final combined scores of 193, 188 and 202 points. That's an average of 194.3 points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total. If you don't count overtime, then the Mavs and Warriors have combined for 202 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings as well.
Golden State just isn't the same offensive team without second-leading scorer David Lee (18.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg), who has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. It has made a big impact on the Warriors, who have scored an average of 91.3 points per game in their last three games overall. They literally have no inside scoring presence without Lee, who is listed as doubtful tonight.
The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in Warriors last eight Tuesday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
03-31-14 |
Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
95-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5
The Philadelphia 76ers have been undervalued for quite some time now as we approach the end of the season. Many feel that this team has given up, but from following them closely, that is clearly not the case. They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall while being much more competitive against some quality competition in the Pacers, Bulls (twice), Knicks, Spurs, Rockets and Pistons.
Sure, the 76ers lack talent due to a couple of trades, but they just recently got back a key player in Tony Wroten (13.3 ppg) from injury. To no surprise, the 76ers put an end to their 26-game losing streak in his first game back, beating Detroit 123-98 on Saturday night. This team will play out the season and relish the role of spoiler as all of these players are fighting for jobs next year.
With the way Atlanta has been playing for a couple months, it has no business being this heavily favored against anyone. Atlanta (31-41) has gone 6-20 since February 4, and it is in the midst of its second losing streak of six games or more during this stretch. Kyle Korver leads the league in 3-point shooting at 48.6 percent, but has missed the past six games with a back injury, and he's questionable to return tonight.
The 76ers have a huge edge in rest here as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Hawks will be playing their 6th game in 9 days. Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Atlanta is 5-20-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with the 76ers Monday.
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03-31-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 |
Top |
103-77 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
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20* Spurs/Pacers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana +4.5
The Indiana Pacers should not be a home underdog to anyone. I'll take advantage Monday and back them at arguably their best price of the season as a 4.5-point home dog to the San Antonio Spurs.
The Pacers are undervalued right now due to having lost four of their last five games overall. Their one win during this stretch came against Miami, so they have proven they can step it up when they need to. They only lead the Heat by one game for the No. 1 seed in the East, so this is a very important game for them.
All four of Indiana's losses during this five-game stretch have come on the road. It returns home tonight where it is a sensational 33-4 on the season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 12.5 points per game. That's why this team knows how important it will be to secure home-court advantage in the East.
San Antonio comes in overvalued due to its franchise-best 17-game winning streak. The competition has been weak to say the least, which is the biggest reason for this streak. Their last four games have come against the 76ers, Nuggets (twice) and Pelicans. I'm predicting their run comes to an end tonight, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance.
Plays against any team (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 42-11 (79.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games following a double-digit loss. Take the Pacers Monday.
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03-30-14 |
Toronto Raptors v. Orlando Magic +4.5 |
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98-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
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15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +4.5
The Orlando Magic obviously have had a rough season. However, they have been sneaky good at home, going 17-18 straight up in all home games this season. I believe they should be the favorite in this game against Toronto tonight.
Orlando has not quit on its season. It is coming off back-to-back home wins over playoff contenders in Portland (95-85) and Charlotte (110-105). It is certainly doing a good job of playing the role of spoiler, and I look for that to continue tonight.
Toronto has been underrated for much of the season as it is 41-31 on the year and sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference. However, I believe the odds have finally caught up to the Raptors, and now it's time to fade this overvalued bunch.
One reason the Magic will be motivated for this game is the fact that they are 0-2 against the Raptors this season and want to avoid the sweep. In fact, they have lost six straight in this series overall. They'll be looking to put an end to this skid tonight.
Orlando is a sensational 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. Toronto is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games off a close home win by 3 points or less. The Magic are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games overall. Roll with the Magic Sunday.
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