Free Football Picks

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: New Mexico State -2.5

I like the spot for the New Mexico State Aggies tonight.  They have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye week.  Meanwhile, the Sam Houston State Bearkats will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days.  I think New Mexico State is the better team, and the rest advantage should have them listed as more than 2.5-point favorites tonight.

Sam Houston State's offense is broken.  The Bearkats managed just 3 points, 243 yards and 4.1 yards per play in their 35-3 loss to Liberty two weeks ago.  Last week was even more concerning as they managed just 3 points, 177 total yards and 3.1 yards per play in their 16-3 loss to Western Kentucky.  That's a putrid WKU defense that they could do nothing against.

These teams have that common opponent in Western Kentucky.  New Mexico State crushed the Hilltoppers 34-13 at home two games ago.  The Aggies also have some misleading losses lately that have them undervalued.  They lost by 24 to New Mexico despite only getting outgained by 27 yards by the Lobos, but they were -3 in turnovers.  They actually outgained FIU by 10 yards and held the Panthers to 220 yards in their 19-point loss last time out.  They were also -2 in turnovers in that contest.

I expect the Aggies to put their best foot forward here playing their first game in two weeks.  Sam Houston State is a tired team and it is starting to show.  The offensive struggles for the Bearkats will continue tonight against this underrated NMSU stop unit.  Bet New Mexico State Wednesday.

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[1%] Free Play on Sabres -190

Wednesday's NBA Free Pick

PLAY ON: Nets +1.5

1* NBA - Mavs/Rockets FREE PICK on Mavs +10.5

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Golden State Valkyries +3½ -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Free Pick on Hornets +105

Getting plus money on the better starting five is the whole play here.

Let's deal with the obvious first.

Charlotte is banged up.

Coby White (calf), Kon Knueppel (hamstring), and Grant Williams (hamstring) are all out for the opener.

The preseason numbers were ugly too: 96.5 points a game on 41% shooting with a -15.2 net rating across 4 games.

Here's why I don't care much.

Preseason is where teams experiment with rotations and bury starters' minutes.

Books and bettors over-index on those box scores every October.

That's exactly how you get a near pick'em price on a team that still starts Dennis Schroder, Grayson Allen, Brandon Miller, Naz Reid, and Moussa Diabate.

Schroder is a proven starting point guard who stabilizes an offense.

Miller is the best player on the floor at his position in this game.

Reid gives Charlotte a frontcourt scorer Brooklyn has no clean answer for.

And Brooklyn's own preseason tape wasn't spotless.

The Nets gave up 112.1 points per 100 possessions across their 4 exhibition games, and that was against October-level competition.

Their starting group leans on Egor Demin at the point and Day'Ron Sharpe in the middle.

That's a thin interior against Reid and Diabate.

The rest angle tilts Charlotte's way too.

The Hornets come in on 5 days of rest, enough to be fresh without the rhythm problems that come with Brooklyn's 7-day layoff.

Strip out the preseason noise and this is a coin-flip game where I'm getting +105 on the side with more proven NBA players.

That's the price I want.

I like the Hornets

Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Sacramento Kings +5

The Key: Both the Kings and Clippers have been mentioned as 2 of the worst teams in the NBA all offseason.  But I think the Kings are in better position to perform well heading into their opener than the Clippers are.  The Kings are actually healthy with LaVine, Hunter, Murray, Sabonis and Acuff Jr. all available as starters.  The Clippers are without 3 of their best players in Ingram, Beal and Strus.  This starting lineup of Garland, Wagler, Jones Jr., Hachimura and Jackson is not as good as what the Kings are putting out there.  Getting 5 points with the Kings is a nice price tonight.  Take Sacramento.

**4X Top 10 NBA Handicapper!** Dave is a former #1 NBA Capper and he is riding a 1765-1521 NBA Run over the long haul that has his $1,000/game investors up $107,670! He is in the midst of a 32-9 Top Plays Run in all sports! Give your book the beating it deserves tonight and hop on board for Dave's Wednesday NBA 5-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* NBA Western Conference Total of the Week along with four 6* picks for you to crush your book with tonight ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get his next day of NBA picks for FREE!

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Warriors/Lakers UNDER 234.5

The Warriors are the definition of an UNDER team with their roster this season.  They are without Porzingis and Podziemski to start the season, and Curry suffered an ankle injury already though he should be good to go.  I have to think he'll be on a minutes restriction.  The three other starters will be rookie Lendeborg, PF Santos and C Green.  Two other offensive liabilities are coming off the bench in Payton II and Horford.  The Lakers will likely prove to be an over team as the season goes on but there will be some growing pains offensively early.  They added a great defender in C Walker Kessler who won't provide much offensively.  Doncic and Reaves are solid, but it will take some time to implement Grimes and LaRavia alongside Kessler.  Thybulle is known for defense and will get a lot of minutes for this team.  Give me the UNDER.

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Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Wednesday 10-21-26

New Mexico State @ Sam Houston State  (8:00 PM EST)
Play On:  New Mexico State -2 1/2

The New Mexico State Aggies travel to Sam Houston to take on the Bearkats on Wednesday night.  New Mexico State is 2-4 SU overall this year while Sam Houston State comes in with a 1-5 SU overall record on the season.  Sam Houston State is 0-5 SU against FBS opponents where they are scoring only 11.6 points per game.  Over the past month, Sam Houston State is 0-3 SU and scoring only 6.7 points per game while allowing 33.3 points per game.  Sam Houston State is 6-20 ATS last 3 years including 1-8 ATS at home when playing in October.  Bet against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after gaining 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games. System applies to: Sam Houston State. System's record since 1992: 89-45 (66.4%). We'll recommend a small play on New Mexico State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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1* Free Sharp Play on CF Monterrey -115

HUMP DAY Card has Rob/s 100% NBA TOP TOTALS System headlining along with a 2X PERFECT CFB Side and WNBA. Comp play below

The NBA Comp play for Wednesday is on ATLANTA plus the 3-4 points here tonight as Rob notes that game 1 home favorites, vs an opponent also playing their first game are 0-3 straight up since 2019 if the total is higher than 225 and they lost at home the last time these teams met. These home teams like Orlando lose by an average 11 points as a 4 point average favorite. The Hawks won all 4 meetings last season and 3 of them were by 12+ points each. The Hawks ripped off 3 straight wins to close out the preseason and we will back them tonight. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #387 Michigan State Spartans over UCLA Bruins (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 24, CBS)

UCLA has been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, standing as the only unbeaten team in either the Big Ten or SEC. Still, this is a hefty number to lay with a backup quarterback. The Bruins were one-dimensional against Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan State to make running the football difficult again.

The Spartans are rebuilding under a new coach, but they’ve shown they can compete, taking Illinois and Northwestern down to the wire. I expect another competitive effort here, with Michigan State keeping the final margin within 7–10 points.

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Pure Lock's FREE NBA play Wednesday 10-21-26

Golden State +7

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Mikey Sports FREE NBA play Wednesday 10-21-26

Utah +2 1/2

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R&R Totals FREE NBA Over-Under Wednesday 10-21-26

OVER 229 1/2 Dallas/Houston

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OVER 53.5

Detroit's offense is averaging nearly 33 PPG and Goff has been surgical with 12 TD passes and zero turnovers. Now he gets an extra week to prepare for a Green Bay defense whose recent improvement came against backup QBs and a struggling Dallas attack. That's a different assignment than dealing with this Lions offense. The problem for Detroit? Its defense is surrendering more than 400 yards per game, giving Love and Green Bay plenty of opportunities to answer. With Jacobs expected back, the Packers have another weapon to keep the scoreboard moving. This one has shootout written all over it. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 53.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL O/U Play

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The Flyers head to Buffalo on Wednesday looking to build on back-to-back wins, while the Sabres return home after a road trip where every game went to extra time. Philadelphia is getting plus money against a short home favorite that has already allowed 3.57 goals a night.

Wednesday night in Buffalo is not a spot you want to lay juice. The Sabres are a short home favorite against a Flyers team that just won two straight, including a 3-2 win over Colorado on Monday. Philadelphia is 2-6-3 and still scoring like a team that forgot where the net is most nights (1.55 goals per game), but they are getting plus money on the road after beating a good club. The market is pricing the building and the name. That is the classic tax. The points are the side.

At +160 the implied probability is 38.5 percent. Buffalo’s true win rate in this spot sits closer to 55–58 percent once you account for Philadelphia’s last two wins and the Sabres’ 3.57 goals against. That leaves a 4–6 percent edge before the juice even gets involved. At -110 the house takes its cut; at +160 the number is the argument. You are not buying a miracle. You are buying a price the market has not fully adjusted for.

Buffalo is 4-3-2, averaging 3.00 goals while allowing 3.57. Their penalty kill has been a mess early, and they just finished a road trip where every game went to extra time. Philadelphia’s last two wins came against Ottawa and Colorado. They are still near the bottom of the league in shots and scoring, but a short home favorite of -175 or worse against a club that just beat the Avalanche is not a number that needs to be laid just because KeyBank Center has a logo. Plus money is the work. Laying the juice is the donation.

Bet the road team getting plus money against a short home favorite of -175 or worse when both teams are under .550 on the season.
Road underdogs of +140 or longer against home favorites of -175 or shorter when both clubs sit under .550 points percentage (since the early 1980s): 41-29 (58.6%). At -110, 41 wins and 29 losses is +9.3 unit$, ROI=13.3%. Philadelphia is the road dog. That is the look.

Buffalo has been leaky at home more often than the number admits. Their last five games produced four that went to overtime or a shootout, and they have already allowed 3.57 a night. Philadelphia has scored three in back-to-back games for the first time this season. A short home favorite against a team that just beat Colorado is the side the public wants. The price is the argument the market does not want to give you. Fade the chalk. Take the plus.

Shop the number. If you can get +150 or better, the value is cleaner. If it drops to +140, the edge shrinks but does not vanish. Confirm the crease. A backup in Buffalo changes the side; a backup in Philadelphia does not. The house does not care that the Flyers are still under .500. The number is the argument. The midweek profile is the work. Philadelphia getting plus money is the side that actually sits on this board.

Flyers at Sabres — Best Player Props (Wednesday, 7:30 ET)

Buffalo is a short home favorite. Philadelphia just scored three in back-to-back wins. The total sits around 5.5–6. That combination usually produces one or two clean prop tickets rather than a full menu. The work is volume and form, not the public favorite. Shop the number. A juice line turns a good prop into a tax.

Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots, about -102 to -110.
Thompson has 42 shots in nine games (4.67 per night) and is projected near 3.43 against Philadelphia. He is the highest-volume shooter on the board and plays 20 minutes a night. Buffalo’s power play has been quiet, but the shot volume does not need a power play to cash. At even money or better this is the cleanest over on the card. If it moves to 4.5 at plus money, take it. If the juice walks past -130, leave it.

Matvei Michkov anytime goal scorer, +230 to +250.
Michkov has six goals in eleven games and just scored twice against Colorado. He has four goals and five assists in five career games against Buffalo. Philadelphia’s offense is still limited, but Michkov has been the one player scoring. A plus-money anytime on a forward who has already beaten this building is the price. At -150 it becomes a tax. At +230 it is the work.

Tage Thompson over 0.5 points, -250 or shorter only.
Thompson has nine points in nine games. The number is juiced for a reason. Pass if it is -280 or worse. The shot total is the cleaner ticket.

Leave the 0.5 goal unders on secondary Flyers forwards. Leave a short-priced anytime on a Sabres defenseman. Confirm the starting goalies. A backup in either crease changes the shot volume more than the side. The house does not care that Buffalo is the home favorite. The number is the argument. Thompson’s shots and Michkov’s anytime are the two that actually sit on this board

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).

Jazz vs Grizzlies NBA FREE PICK

The Angle(s): The Utah Jazz were one of the league's worst road teams last season, winning just eight of 41 games away from home. Even so, the public is piling on Utah in this season opener, yet Memphis has flipped to a short favorite at most books. That kind of reverse line movement tells me the sharper money is siding with the home team.

The Memphis Grizzlies debut the Cameron Boozer era with Zach Edey healthy again after he played only 11 games last season, giving them a frontcourt Utah will struggle to match. The two clubs split last year's series, but Memphis handled the Jazz 123-114 at FedExForum in February. I'll back the Grizzlies in front of a home crowd ready for a fresh start.

The Bet: Grizzlies ML (3%). 

Profits five of the last six NBA seasons! and NBA last season: 183-157 (53.8%), +2.4% ROI!

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Free Pick on Jazz +2½ -112