Free Football Picks

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take Cincinnati over Inter Miami (5 p.m. EST, Sunday November 23) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time – a DRAW is a loser here) This line is the Messi Effect as there is great value on the Orange and Blue here at home at TQL Stadium for this single- elimination playoff match. Cincinnati got the advantage of playing at home by having a better record, and the fact that they are above Miami in the standings yet an underdog here at home tells you all you need to know about where the bookies expect the money to come in on this one. Messi is the biggest draw in MLS and he brings in all the cash. But this will be no easy match for Inter Miami. Miami has just two road wins in eight matches since the summer. They are just not as good of a team on the road as they are at home. Cincinnati is a very good team. Last time Miami visited, in July, they held Messi in check but came up big offensively in a 3-0 win. They have a +8 goal differential in their last two home matches against Miami. Just really great value here at this price and we expect Cincinnati to go through to the conference finals. 

1* FREE INFO PLAY Western Kentucky vs LSU over 50½ -110

*Free Play on Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have an elite defense. They are 6th nationally in success rate allowed. The Aztecs are third nationally in explosiveness allowed. San Diego State is 2nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity allowed, so they are great in the red zone on defense too.

San Jose State has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country. The Spartans are just 59th in offensive explosiveness. They are a terrible 121st in points per scoring opportunity, so they aren't cashing in with touchdowns when they get deep into opponents territory. 

San Diego State is extremely run heavy, and the San Jose State defense has been much weaker against the pass than the run. I think the Aztecs get the lead and keep the clock moving here.

Take the under.

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Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think the knee-jerk reaction will be for bettors to get behind the Chiefs as they're entering desperation mode as they sit at 5-5 following a tough division loss in Denver last Sunday. We'll go the other way and grab all the points we can get with the Colts, who have done nothing but exceed expectations this season and enter rested off their bye week. Indianapolis has had to navigate some rough waters recently, losing defensive anchor DeForest Buckner to injury and also dealing with some regression from QB Daniel Jones. I do think we see Indianapolis come out rejuvenated following its bye, however, and I think it matches up well against a reeling Chiefs team. Kansas City came off of its bye last week - an overwhelmingly positive spot for the team under Andy Reid over the years - and coughed up a 22-19 decision against the Broncos. That marked the Chiefs second straight loss. While Kansas City's defense has held up well, its offense has left a lot to be desired, and I think it's going to have a very difficult time pulling away from a game Colts squad here. The path to victory for Indy involves running the wheels off of RB Jonathan Taylor against a beatable Chiefs front. On the flip side, I think Patrick Mahomes will have a difficult time pulling a rabbit out of his hat against a terrific Colts defense that's strength lies from the back-end in. Look for this game to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Indianapolis.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas +9

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss.  In fact, this is the best 2-8 team I've ever seen.  Seven of the eight losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame.  They lost by 1 to LSU, by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss.  They easily could have won any of those seven games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for Texas.  The Longhorns had their 'all in' game last week against Georgia and came up short, getting outplayed and out-coached in a 35-10 defeat.  It was their third loss to Georgia in two seasons and all but assured they will not be going to the 12-team playoff for a third consecutive season.  I question their motivation this week after having their dreams crushed last week.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

No question Arkansas has the better offense in this matchup.  The Razorbacks rank 13th in total offense at 470 yards per game while scoring 34.1 points per game.  Talen Green is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country, throwing for 2,537 yards and 19 TD while rushing for 719 yards and 7 TD.

The Razorbacks returned from their bye and gave LSU all they wanted in Baton Rouge.  They lost 23-22 and really should have won the game, but were -3 in turnovers.  The defense came through with their best performance of the season, holding the Tigers to 23 points and 5.4 yards per play.  Now they face this mediocre Texas offense that has been held to 23 points or fewer in four of their last six games, and they should hold them in check as well.

Texas isn't getting margin on anyone in SEC play due to this poor offense.  The Longhorns are 4-2 in conference play with three of those four wins coming by 7 points or less.  The lone exception was against Oklahoma and a hobbled John Mateer in his first game back from injury.  Mateer threw 3 INT's and the Longhorns benefited from a 75-yard punt return TD to win 23-6.  

The Razorbacks are treating this as their 'national championship' game while the Longhorns are coming off their biggest game of the season.  Even if the Longhorns show up with their best effort, which is unlikely, the Razorbacks are good enough to stay within this inflated number.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

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Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on James Madison -13.5

The Key: The James Madison Dukes have motivation to get style points as they are on the verge of making the 12-team playoff.  They have been going for style points for weeks now in going 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS this year.  Curt Cignetti left his imprint on this program and they are taking no prisoners currently.  They beat App State 58-10, beat Marshall 35-23 on the road, beat Texas State 52-20 on the road and beat Old Dominion 63-27 at home in their last 4 games while tacking on late scores in all 4 games.  This is a long trip for Washington State, a tired team after already having to travel to Virginia and Ole Miss earlier this season.  This Washington State offense does not have the firepower to keep up with James Madison.  The Cougars are 116th in scoring at 20.7 PPG, 120th in total offense at 309.9 YPG and 121st at 4.9 YPP.  They'll be up against a JMU defense that ranks 5th at 257.1 YPG and 11th at 16.2 PPG.  Take James Madison.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Maryland +14

Michigan was fortunate to survive with a 24-22 win at Northwestern last week.  The Wolverines are now just 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season with their 3 wins coming by 2, 3 and 11 points.  This offense cannot be trusted to lay 14 points on the road at Maryland this week, especially considering they are without their most important player in RB Justice Haynes, who has rushed for 857 yards and 10 TD on 7.1 per carry.  Michigan also plays a slow, methodical style that makes it difficult for them to get separation on teams.  Maryland is still alive for a bowl game at 4-6 this year and will be giving its best effort this week.  The Wolverines have their biggest game of the season on deck against Ohio State and could get caught looking ahead as well.  They just want to get out of here with a win and aren't concerned with margin.  Give me Maryland.

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Big Saturday Card has an Executive Level TIER 1 Side and the late 2025 Mountain West Game of the year in CFB. There is also CBB Early season Power Systems and NBA. BIG 12 Comp play below

The Saturday Comp play is on Kansas Plus the points at noon eastern. The Jayhawks wont have much of a chance next week vs Utah and Know they need this to go bowling as they have 5 wins thus far. They are off a bye week which will help here as well. Iowa St sits at 6-4 but after a BIG 12 Championship appearance last season this is not whey they expected. To Make things worse they are in a 2-13 late season system that plays against teams off a win that snapped a 3 or more game losing streak and scored less than 31 points. Look for Kansas to at the very least cover. GL Rob V-

Baylor +7

Baylor is worth a free move here against Arizona. This is a home game for Arizona, starting at 10am local time as they’re feeling the effects of playing in the Big 12 now. Baylor can catch Arizona sluggish early in the game and take advantage of it. The Bears need one more win to become bowl eligible and this is a spot where they can keep things close throughout. Grab the points. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the Bears +7. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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The Big 12’s basement has never looked uglier than it does in late November 2025. Two teams with a combined five wins, one of them already mathematically eliminated from bowl contention, and the other clinging to life with a quarterback room that looks like a MASH unit. Yet here we are, staring at a 13-point spread that feels almost insulting...until you realize Oklahoma State is the one catching the points. Give me UCF -13 and let’s cash this ticket before the Bounce House inflates and common sense deflates.

Scott Frost wasn’t entirely joking when he floated the idea of dusting off his Heisman finalist cleats to run scout-team offense this week. The Knights are down to two scholarship quarterbacks—neither of whom looked particularly healthy in last week’s 48-9 embarrassment against Texas Tech. Tayven Jackson, the nominal starter, limped through 128 passing yards and took a beating. Davi Belfort, a redshirt freshman who has thrown exactly nine collegiate passes, is the emergency parachute. Cam Fancher and Jacurri Brown are both out for the season with broken ribs and a shredded AC joint, respectively. Frost is literally running option plays with walk-ons in practice just to give his defense a look.

And still, somehow, UCF is the play.

Oklahoma State has quit. There’s no kinder way to put it. The Cowboys are 1-9, winless in Big 12 play, and fresh off a 14-6 loss to Kansas State in which they finally won the yardage battle… and still managed to lose by eight because they can’t stop turning the football over. They’ve dropped 18 of their last 19 games dating back to last season. Interim coach Doug Meacham is 0-7, and the roster has checked out faster than seniors on the last day of high school. This is the worst Oklahoma State team in the modern era, and they’re walking into a stadium where UCF has been a covering machine.

The Knights are 10-2 against the spread in their last dozen conference home games when they actually win the game, and even in defeat they rarely get blown out in Orlando. The Bounce House remains one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the spor..sweltering heat, deafening noise, and that ridiculous inflatable tunnel that seems to hypnotize visiting teams into early mistakes. Oklahoma State is 3-5 ATS this year as a two-touchdown (or larger) underdog and has failed to cover in six of its last seven road games.

The advanced metrics are a bloodbath. UCF ranks in the top 20 nationally in points per play allowed (0.30) despite all the offensive chaos. Oklahoma State is 131st in scoring defense (36.3 PPG) and dead last in the Big 12 in turnover margin. The Cowboys give the ball away like it’s burning their hands, and UC...somehow, someway....still forces turnovers at a top-25 rate even while starting backup quarterbacks who learned the playbook last Tuesday.

Yes, the Knights have scored 24 points combined in their last three games. Yes, the quarterback situation is a five-alarm fire. But this week they get an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 134th in total defense and has allowed 427 yards per game in conference play. RJ Harvey is still healthy, still averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and still capable of ripping off 150+ on the ground against a Cowboys front that quit tackling sometime around Halloween.

Lay the 13. Take it to 17 if it goes in that direction. UCF’s season is on life support, and nothing resuscitates a dying campaign like beating up on the one team in the league that’s already flatlined. The Knights still control their own bowl destiny with games against Oklahoma State and Colorado remaining. They’re not letting this one slip away at home.

Projected score: UCF 38, Oklahoma State 17. Cover feels like the floor, not the ceiling.