Free Football Picks

1* Free Pick on Spurs -2½

The market is overreacting to the news that Victor Wembanyama is expected to sit out Game 3 while in concussion protocol.

San Antonio is a 62-win juggernaut that still holds a massive talent advantage over a Portland team that finished twenty games behind them in the standings.

The Spurs' offense remains elite even without their big man, ranking 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 119.8 points per game during the regular season.

De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle provide a veteran presence and playmaking stability that Portland’s young backcourt cannot match over a high-stakes four quarters.

Portland’s Game 2 victory was fueled by an unsustainable 31-point performance from Scoot Henderson that the Spurs’ 8th-ranked defense will neutralize tonight.

San Antonio shot 38.6 percent from beyond the arc this season, and their ability to space the floor remains a nightmare for the Blazers' perimeter defenders.

The Spurs have won 81.4 percent of their games when favored by at least 1.5 points, proving they rarely let inferior opponents off the hook twice in a row.

Portland continues to struggle with ball security and ranks near the bottom of the league in turnover rate, which will lead to easy transition points for San Antonio.

Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson offer reliable scoring depth that will bridge the gap left by the absence of their star center in the frontcourt.

This line has dipped because of the injury report, but we are getting the vastly superior team at a price that essentially ignores their season-long dominance.

Expect the Spurs to play with high intensity to reclaim home-court advantage and prove their system is bigger than any one individual player.

I like the Spurs -2.5 (-110).

I have three premium plays released for today's MLB and NBA slate as I focus on the high-value spots identified in my latest analysis. You can find my full card and detailed breakdowns for this evening on my premium picks page.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY A's +138

BIG Saturday Card has the Round 1 NHL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR, a TOP NBA Undefeated Totals System, MLB and More. Comp play below.

The MLB Comp play at 2:15 Eastern is on the Under in the Seattle at St. Louis game. Woo goes for Seattle and he has pitched under in 6 straight as a road favorite in non September games. Woo pitched well in a win vs the Cards last season and has a 2.16 ERA thus far this year.  He opposes St. Louis Lefty Mathew Liberatore who has allowed less than 2 runs in 3 of his 5 starts so far. He has pitched under in 3 of 4 at home in April starts. The Mariners were averaging just around 2 runs per game on the road heading into this weekend series going under in 7 of 9. The Cards are not much better at home a shade over 3 runs per game. Look for this game to stay under. GL Rob V-

Mikey Sports FREE NBA play Friday 4-24-26

San Antonio -2 1/2

Mikey Sports has been on an INCREDIBLE 1332-1058 (56%) RUN over his last 2449 MLB picks! He has now made $1,000/game bettors $56,650 in profits since June 30, 2010. Join Mikey Sports with his Money Line for Friday on Marlins v. Giants!

Saturday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Brewers -135

This weekend’s UFC Fight Night at the Apex has that familiar mix of rising stars and grizzled vets, but if I’m digging for the smartest underdog play on the whole card, I’m all in on Raoni Barcelos against Montel Jackson. I’ve been betting these cards long enough to spot when the lines are sleeping on a veteran who just keeps proving people wrong, and Barcelos fits that bill perfectly right now.

The 38-year-old Brazilian is rolling into this one on a rock-solid four-fight win streak. He’s already knocked off names like Ricky Simon and Cody Garbrandt, and who could forget him shocking the world with that gritty upset over hyped prospect Payton Talbott when basically everyone had him as a massive dog? That’s not luck, that’s a guy who’s figured out how to win the ugly, effective way late in his career. He brings serious wrestling roots as a multi-time Brazilian national champ, mixing in persistent chain takedowns with enough striking to keep opponents honest. In a division where control time and grinding out rounds have become the great equalizer, Barcelos is built for exactly that.

Jackson, on the other hand, is the classic athletic specimen who gets fans fired up. Taller, longer reach, legitimate one-punch knockout power, he’s the flashy striker who can end things quick if you let him. But here’s the angle that has me chuckling and reaching for the plus money: we’ve seen this movie before in bantamweight. Athletic power punchers like Jackson have been getting neutralized more and more lately when veteran grapplers close the distance and drag them into the mud. Jackson’s shown real vulnerability whenever someone chains wrestling and controls the pace on the mat, and that’s precisely Barcelos’ wheelhouse. The Brazilian doesn’t need to be the bigger or faster guy; he just needs to be smarter, and his recent form screams that he’s peaking at the right time.

What makes this even sharper is the broader trend we’ve watched unfold in the lighter divisions over the past couple years. Underdog grapplers and wrestlers have been cashing at a noticeably higher clip against pure strikers, especially when the favorite relies on athleticism and highlight-reel power. The public loves chasing the knockout artist, but time and again the experienced chain-wrestler spoils the party by turning the fight into a slow, methodical chess match. Bantamweight bouts have a habit of going the distance anyway, and that plays right into Barcelos’ hands—he’s the guy who thrives when things get ugly and decisions matter.

Sure, Jackson might come out looking like he could bench-press half the Apex crowd, but once Barcelos shoots in and starts dictating where the fight happens, all that extra size and explosiveness just turns into dead weight on the canvas. It’s almost comical how often these mismatches flip the script when the veteran knows how to weather the early storm and grind it out over three rounds.

There are a couple other live dogs on the card worth a peek, Aljamain Sterling bringing that crafty ex-champ IQ in the main event, or Joselyne Edwards swinging for the fences in the women’s spot, but Barcelos stands out as the cleanest stylistic edge at plus money. This one just has that sneaky “I’ve seen this before” vibe where the old dog reminds everyone that experience and mat control still rule the day. If you’re building a card this weekend, make sure the Brazilian vet is near the top of your list. Should be a fun one when the veteran magic kicks in.