Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Panthers +3 -110

Ricky's 1* play on AZ.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Diamondbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.

- The Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games.

- The Diamondbacks are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the road underdog.

1* Free Pick on Cowboys +165

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* FREE INFO PLAY Eagles vs Ravens under 37½ -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Padres +110

DOUBLE TOTAL OF THE YEARS on Saturday In Afternoon Action the 100% 7* CFL TOY and tonight the NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR DALLAS at SEATTLE. MLB and WNBA UP too. Comp play below.

The WNBA Comp play is on the Under in the LA Sparks at Washington Mystics game at 7:30 eastern. In this study Rob looked at home favorites like the Mystics that have home loss revenge with a total is 155 or higher with both teams coming into the game off road losses. These games since 2011 have gone under on 7 of 8 occasions. With an average posted total of 167 in these games the final score averaged out at 155 points. Washington has gone over 3 straight as a home favorite with a total of 175 or more. The Sparks are on a 5-0 under as a road dog.Based on the systems and applicable team angles we will back the under here. GL Rob- V

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take #209810 Atlanta over New York Red Bulls (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday August 15) We think this is a great spot for Atlanta. They have not been playing their best lately but this will be a homecoming for them as they have not played a home match since May 9, before the World Cup. Even though they lost last time out, we liked what we saw from them at Philly. They were up by two goals most of the match vs the Union but they were a man down and Philadelphia scored two goals in extra time to steal three points. As we stated, Atlanta has not played at home in a long time and we think this return will give them an extra burst of energy and it’s not like the Red Bulls are a great side. They are quite far above Atlanta in the standings but have a -10 goal differential compared to -14 for Atlanta, who have faced a real tough schedule on this road trip. It’s telling that Atlanta is a decent favorite here with their recent performances, and we think this is an amazing spot for them to pick up three points and some momentum for the second half of the season in front of the home fans.

Ian Machado Garry moneyline is the live dog I’m betting on at UFC 330.

Makhachev rolls in with that ridiculous 16-fight UFC win streak and the kind of resume that makes the chalk look invincible on paper. Garry sits 17-1 overall, 10-1 inside the Octagon, and just stacked back-to-back wins including a former champ. The size gap is real: Garry at 6'3" with a 74.5-inch reach against Makhachev’s 5'10" and 70.5-inch wingspan. That four-inch reach edge is pure structural leverage. It forces the shorter guy to walk into jabs and teeps just to get in range.

Strike output tells the rest of the story. Garry pumps out 4.78 significant strikes per minute. Makhachev sits around 2.45. That’s a 2.3-strike differential every minute the fight stays standing. Stretch that over five championship rounds and the volume gap gets loud if Garry can keep the distance. Makhachev’s 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes is still the biggest hammer on the card, but Garry’s been defending at roughly 80 percent lately and has shown he can scramble back up when the pressure hits.

Historically the bigger, rangier underdogs who also own the volume edge have made life miserable for recently moved-up champs more often than the public wants to admit. Garry already solved some awkward, long opponents. His only loss came against a pure grappler who dragged him into deep water. Since then he’s cleaned up the details.

The number right now prices him as a low-to-mid 20s percent dog. I have him closer to 30-33 percent true. That gap is the edge. Once the price drifts past the +220 range the expected value flips positive and the ticket starts looking like sharp action instead of square hope.

I’m not blind. One clean body lock from Makhachev and the whole script flips. His top control is still elite and he rarely gives rounds away once he gets there. But the combination of reach, volume, recent form, and the fact that Makhachev still has limited sample size against tall technical strikers who actually jab in open stance makes this the side I want exposure to.

If the early rounds stay on the feet and Garry banks the first couple of scorecards, the pressure shifts fast and the chalk starts sweating. That’s the angle. That’s the number. That’s the action I’m most comfortable sitting with when the cage door closes in Philly.