Free Football Picks

*Free Play on Over* Oklahoma State's offense disappointed in general last week, but Morris and Mestemaker is a great combination. Also, we know Oklahoma State will play as fast as possible. The Cowboys were top five nationally in tempo last weekend. They'll push the pace again here. 

I think Hawkins can do some damage out of the backfield in the passing game. This is an Oregon defense that didn't tackle very well last week against Boise State. 

Oregon's offense did poorly on late downs, but they rolled up 7.9 yards per play and 497 yards of total offense against Boise State a week ago. If they convert some late down chances, they could hang a big number here. 

The Oklahoma State defense is a clear weakness. The Cowboys don't have the secondary to stay with these ultra talented Oregon receivers.

Take the over here.

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Saturday Duke/Illinois Free CFB Pick

PLAY ON: Duke +6 

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: San Diego State/UCLA OVER 54.5

UCLA had one of the best hires of the offseason when they nabbed Bob Chesney of James Madison.  Chesney led the Dukes to the college football playoff in his 2nd season last year.  He took Holy Cross to the playoffs in four of his previous five seasons there.  Chesney is one of the best young coaches in the country.

Chesney was able to get seven starters to stick around, including QB Nico Iamaleava.  He added 11 transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Bruins basically 18 returning starters.  A lot of the transfers come with Chesney from JMU.  That includes RB Wayne Knight who rushed for 1,373 yards and averaged 6.6 per carry last season.

UCLA lit up Cal 45-24 for 69 combined points in the opener behind 461 total yards and 8.5 yards per play from the offense.  Nico threw for 184 yards and rushed for a score in the win.  Anthony Woods and Wayne Knight combined for 189 rushing yards and five scores on just 16 carries.  They allowed 410 total yards to Cal in the win.

San Diego State really profiles as an OVER team this season.  They were led by their defense last season that returned 10 starters.  But they lost their stud defensive coordinator in the offseason, and new coordinator Demetrius Sumler has his hands full.  San Diego State only returns three starters on defense while losing eight of its top nine tacklers.

It's been surprising to see head coach Sean Lewis turn the Aztecs into more of a defensive team in his first two seasons.  But that is no longer.  The architect of the Flash Fast offense at Kent State, and he will call his own plays in his third season on the job and lean into the fact that the strength of this team is now on offense.

The Aztecs return eight starters on offense this season.  QB Jayden Denegal is back, RB Lucky Sutton (1,297 yards, 10 TD) and the top four receivers are all back giving the Aztecs a talented, experienced group of playmakers to lean on.  They will do enough offensively to contribute to us cashing this OVER 54.5 ticket.

San Diego State beat Portland State 53-20 for 73 combined points in Week 1.  The Aztecs even kneeled at the goal line in the final seconds as they were going in to make it 60.  FCS Portland State managed 376 total yards on their defense, so you can just imagine what this high-octane UCLA offense is going to put up in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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1* Free Pick on Sacramento State/Fresno State: under 45½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* NCAAF - Oklahoma/Michigan FREE PICK on Oklahoma -5

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Air Force +2

The Key: North Dakota State jumped up to the FBS this season.  The Bison have opened 2-0 with a pair of home wins over cupcakes in Jacksonville State and FCS Fordham.  This is where they get their 'welcome to the FBS' moment.  They will be playing their 3rd game already which is only because they played in Week 0.  And the Bison have to travel for the first time to Air Force, which will have a big home-field advantage in this one.  This is an Air Force team that returned 12 starts and should have one of the most improved defenses in the nation.  They also return QB Liam Szarka, who threw for 1,294 yards and 9 TD while also rushing for 922 yards and 13 TD last season.  They return their top RB in Owen Allen who rushed for 750 yards and 5 TD.  Air Force rushed for 431 yards in a 34-0 win over Duquesne.  The Falcons held the Dukes to 107 yards and 2.5 per play.  NDSU isn't ready to face the triple-option especially with no extra time to prepare for it.  Take Air Force.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Tulsa vs Sam Houston under 51½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Alabama/Kentucky OVER 48

Two offensive-minded head coaches go at it in this SEC opener between Alabama and Kentucky.  And I'm expecting these two be two of the most improved offenses in the country.  Kalen DeBoer is in his 3rd season at Alabama after taking Washington to the national title game.  He was known for his high-powered offenses at Washington, and he finally has the players in place to do it at Alabama.  Keelon Russell is one of the most talented dual-threat QB's in the country.  He threw for 256 yards and rushed for 86 yards in a 48-10 win over East Carolina in their opener.  The Crimson Tide rushed for 227 yards to prove they can run the football this season after it being a weakness last year.  Kentucky beat Youngstown State 45-13 in the opener.  It was an impressive debut for Will Stein, who served as Oregon's offensive coordinator prior to coming to Lexington.  QB Kenny Minchey was a great get in the transfer portal as he was neck-and-neck with Notre Dame's CJ Carr for the starting job leading into the season last year.  Minchey threw for 301 yards and 4 TD against Youngstown State.  Both teams are going with more tempo this season to help out the offenses.  Give me the OVER.

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BIG Saturday card has a TOP Total in the Texas vs Ohio St game a TOP TIER 1 Side and several Powerful Game 2 specific Undefeated Power System Plays. CFB Comp play below

The Saturday CFB Comp play is on Clemson -20 today over Georgia Southern. Game 386 at 7:30 eastern. Clemson looked terrible last week as they were dismantled on both sides of the ball by LSU. Now they come home to take on a Georgia Southern team off a 31-0 home win. Rob notes that game 2 home favorites at -13 or more that scored less than 14 in a dog loss and are taking on a team off a home win in a game where the total is 49 or more are a perfect 8-0 to the spread since 2000. Clemson put an emphasis the entire off season on improving and anemic run game but were unable to sustain any real offense until a drive late in the 4th Quarter. They should be far better on both sides of the ball here. Look for Clemson to get a comfortable win and cover in their home opener. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #344 Syracuse Orange over California Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 12 ACC Network) Both teams have a game under their belt and we will follow the line movement in this game. Cal has a new coach and system and they fell apart last week in Berkely, being outscored 21-0 by UCLA to lose by 21 points. I do not have much confidence in this team and feel Ron Rivera is in over his head as general manager. Syracuse got some confidence last week destroying New Hampshire and they did win at Cal in 2024 in route to a 10 win season. I see them bouncing back this year and making a bowl game. They should be able to win this game by double digits. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays football, soccer, and tennis. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

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Saturday’s free winner: Alabama Crimson Tide.

Game 357.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

This may be just the first month of the NCAAF campaign, and laying nearly double-digits on the road is never an easy task. However, I think we can all agree Alabama learned from last year’s mistake. If you recall, a season ago they came out on August 30 on the road in Florida State as a 13.5-point favorite and got you humiliated, 31-17. They did rattle off 10 victories out of their final 11 remaining regular season contests. This does include wins and covers in all four games played on the road. This season they came out and blew up East Carolina at home, 48-10. They have the luxury of knowing they’ve dominated Kentucky taking six consecutive meetings straight up, covering four of those six, which includes the most recent matchup back in November 2023 in which they annihilated the Wildcats, 49-21. Speaking of Kentucky, they blew up Youngstown State in their opener, 45-13. But this is a team that faced quite a few of the same opponents, ‘Bama did last season and got shellacked in several of those outings. The Wildcats, under head coach March Stoops did surprise a few teams. However, I don’t feel they could carry that over this season with their current head coach, Will Stein. Yes, Alabama has Florida State up next, the team that took them down in the beginning of last season. But the SEC opener cannot be overlooked. While ECU, the team Alabama took down last week, is not a powerhouse. The Crimson Tide still produced 487 total yards, with 28 first downs. I feel they will absolutely dominate in their SEC opener, especially against a team that is certainly in a rebuilding year. Take the Alabama Crimson Tide. Thank you.

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South Florida at Army 12:00 ET

Bulls (+) over Black Knights - I love the Army and actually spent three years in uniform and always look to play on them whenever the opportunity presents itself. But, there are time like this Saturday when they are just too good to take. Remember, the bookie is not your friend! The Amy ran roughshod over Bryant College gaining 569 yards on the ground averaging 10 yards a carry, while surrendering just 67. South Florida had a battle with Florida International 19-9 gaining just 208 total yards on offense with only 100 yards on the round. When you see those numbers one would expect the Black Knights to be at least double-digit favorites. But the bookmakers do not agree. I will follow their lead. Take SOUTH FLORIDA!

Lions -7

Locking this in early. Analysis to follow.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

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Forty-four and a half is a quiet number until you remember who is walking into NRG on Sunday. Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 Eastern, Week 1, a pick’em dressed up like a heavyweight and a total that already admits this should look like 24-17, not 31-28. The public hears Josh Allen and starts adding touchdowns. The board heard Houston’s front and hung 44.5 like it meant it.

Last year the Bills went 12-5 and scored 481 points, 28.3 a night, tied for fourth in the league. That tape is real. So is a road opener in a building that has treated Allen like a tourist. Including the postseason he is 1-4 against this franchise with a 55.4 percent completion rate. That is not a curse you put on a poster. That is a completion percentage that lives in the 200s and a lot of third-and-long. Houston went 12-5 as well. The Texans were 7-11-1 to the total. Buffalo was 10-8-1. One of those clubs already knew how to keep a Sunday from turning into a track meet.

Week 1 is not January. First real snaps, first real crowd, first real script that has not been stress-tested since the spring. Openers lean under for a reason. Coaches call it safe. Quarterbacks check it down. Clock becomes the whole ticket. A 23-17 Texans win cashes 44.5 in its sleep. A 24-20 Bills win cashes. A 27-13 still has a pulse. The scores that beat it are the ones where both quarterbacks start slinging it in the fourth quarter of an opener because somebody panicked. That is not how this spot usually ages, and it is not how NRG usually ages when Buffalo is in town.

You do not need a defensive struggle that looks like 9-6. You need this to stay out of a late auction. Allen can still be the best player on the field and the under still gets paid. Stroud can still look like a franchise and the under still gets paid. The number is not asking you to fade talent. It is asking you to fade rust plus a Houston defense that does not need permission to hit.

Pertinent ledger from last season, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at it: Bills 481 points in 17 games, 28.3 a night, 12-5, 19 giveaways. Texans 12-5, 12 giveaways, second-fewest in the league. Combined that is two grown clubs, not a cupcake and a bully. Combined they were not a 50-point problem every Sunday. Houston’s total record already told you that. Buffalo’s scoring average is the trap. People take 28.3, add a home dome, and forget that 28.3 was earned across a year, not on the first Sunday in somebody else’s building.

The public will smash Allen props and the over because the logo travels and the quarterback sells tickets. Let them. A 220-yard Allen night and a 210-yard Stroud night with a couple of field goals is an honest opener. James Cook can still eat and the total can still sit down. The ticket is not “nobody scores.” The ticket is “nobody turns this into a shootout before the rust comes off.”

Sit on 44.5. If the number drips to 43.5 it gets cleaner. If they hang 46.5, the edge is thinner and you can live without it. Sunday’s ticket is the under, not the chalk, not the revenge poster, not the first-game narrative that always sounds smarter on Saturday night.

Bet under the total in Week 1 games posted 45.5 or lower.

The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 12-7 (63.2%) with an average over/under of 43.8. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.7%)

Bet under the total in Bills road games against a 12-win defense.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average over/under of 46.1. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet under 45 in Week 1 games that open as a pick’em or inside a field goal.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average over/under of 44.2. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Bet under the total when Josh Allen plays in Houston.

That spot since 2022: 4-1 (80.0%) with an average over/under of 46.8. (+2.7 units, ROI=49.1%)

Confirm the number is still 44.5 closer to kick. Confirm both clubs are still listing the names you expect. Then take the under and let everybody else argue about a one-point spread in Week 1. Enjoy the early window. Bet the total. Let the logos yell at each other while the clock does the work.

Player Prop bets :Josh Allen’s passing line is sitting around 221.5. Take the under. He can still win the game and live in the 190s if Houston’s front gets him off schedule.

C.J. Stroud is around 218.5 passing yards. Same lean. Under. A home opener against Buffalo does not require 250. It requires 205 and a couple of scores.

Allen under 1.5 passing touchdowns is the other quarterback ticket. One through the air and a field-goal night is an honest road opener in this building.

James Cook around 73.5 rushing yards is the over that still fits the under. If this stays on the ground, he eats clock and the total still cashes.

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We saw considerable regression from the Buccaneers down the stretch last season as they ultimately missed the playoffs after having it set up on a platter for them in the down-trodden NFC South. So obviously Tampa Bay has a chip on its shoulder entering the 2026 campaign but I'm not sure that will make a lick of difference. I think we're going to see the Bucs get involved in their share of shootouts again this year and in the season opener, that suits Cincinnati just fine. The Bengals finally have QB Joe Burrow healthy to start a season and he has all the weapons around him he needs to take his team on a 'Super Bowl of bust' type of run this year. The big news is that Cincinnati finally made some moves to bolster its much-maligned defense. I think the Bengals defense is well-positioned to come up with the splash plays needed to ultimately pull away in this particular contest. Bettors are hesitant to back the Bengals in Week 1 given their early season futility in recent years. I think this is a team with a fresh outlook, however, and one that brings a lot of optimism into its home opener. Take Cincinnati (8*).