Free Football Picks

Free Total Annihilator On Dolphins vs Raiders over 40 -110

Ricky's 1* play on PHI.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Commanders are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.

- The Eagles are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 head to head meetings.

- The Commanders are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Philadelphia Eagles -6

The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 19.3 points per game and 316.8 yards per game last season.  The locked up defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis with contracts, while also brining in edge rusher Jonathan Greenard.  They added CB Riq Woolen to an impressive secondary that features Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell.

There was a lot of negativity surrounding the offense last season and deservedly so.  Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown weren't on the same page, so they let Brown go in the offseason.  But they drafted a solid replacement in Makai Lemon out of USC.  And they still have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, a unit that was injured last year that contributed to their demise.  RB Saquon Barkley still has plenty left in the tank, too.  I love the hiring of 34-year-old Sean Mannion as offensive coordinator to open things up.

Few teams are in worse shape than the Washington Commanders coming into the season.  Jayden Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024.  That seems like ages ago now.  He went from 69% completions in '24 to 60.6% in '25, and his yards per carry dropped from 6.0 to 4.8.  He benefited a lot from Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator in '24, and now he'll havea. new coordinator in David Blough this season.

The problem is the Commanders have one of the worst offensive lines in football.  They are relying on aging players at the skill positions in McLaurin and Diggs, and RB Croskey-Merritt is already banged up coming into the season.  Daniels is also returning from an injury-plagued season as well.

The Commanders may be in even worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  LB Dorance Armstrong is suspended to start the season, and the Commanders just don't have much talent at all three levels.

The best unit on the field will be Philadelphia's defense and it's not close.  I think the 2nd-best unit is this Philadelphia offense.  The Commanders are going to go through growing pains early in the season with two new coordinators.  Nick Sirianni is 5-0 in season-openers so he always has his guys ready to go in Week 1.  He should improve to 6-0 here with Philadelphia winning this opener by a TD or more.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

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1* Free Play on Packers +2½ -115

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 9/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Las Vegas Raiders minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins. After a 3-14 campaign, the Raiders decided it was a mistake to hire the 73-year-old Pete Carroll as their next head coach. In theory, bringing in the former Super Bowl-winning head coach was an attempt to professionalize the building (just down the road from the Hollywood Sports offices). There is nothing like failed nepotism to make me sour on someone — and Carroll installing his underqualified son, Brennan, as his offensive line coach did it. In my deep dive on this team last year, the offensive line unit looked mediocre, at best. But after a season-ending injury to left tackle Kolton Miller and ongoing injuries to center Jackson Powers-Johnson, the Raiders’ offensive line quickly became outmatched in talent. The offensive line coach gifted into his position of authority was not qualified to coach up the remaining players. It got so bad that by the end of the season, quarterback Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty, and the healthy offensive linemen were holding subterfuge meetings away from the coaches just to get on the same page. Everything about the Las Vegas offense last season needs to be taken through the lens of utter dysfunction and lack of talent on their offensive line. Jeanty should be better.  After running the offense that helped Seattle win the Super Bowl, first-year head coach Klint Kubiak hired Rick Dennison, who is considered one of the best offensive line coaches in the business. The brain trust also gave Baltimore’s Tyler Linderbaum the highest free agent contract ever for a center to help solidify the position. With Miller and Powers-Johnson (moving to left guard) healthy again, the hope is that Dennison can coach up five players on the depth chart who were drafted in the first three rounds of the last three drafts. The Raiders’ defense was underrated last season by ranking 14th in the league by holding their opponents to 317.8 total Yards-Per-Game. After the attempted trade debacle of defensive end Maxx Crosby, the pass rusher is back and complemented by a slew of free agent pickups management made immediately after that trade before Baltimore pulled out when Crosby failed his medical test. For Miami, the long rebuild for this Dolphins franchise begins this season. The die was probably cast when the organization extended quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract in the summer of 2024, despite having the option of putting the franchise tag on him to kick the can down the road for up to two years. The team was simply not realistic about his value given his serious history of concussions. Head coach Mike McDaniel tried to scheme his way around the problem to keep Tagovailoa safe — but that necessarily put limits on his play-calling. Now McDaniel has been fired along with general manager Chris Grier after seven seasons, who was ultimately responsible for drafting Tagovailoa before Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts and then extending his contract. The new plan appears to be to transform the Miami Dolphins into the Green Bay Packers South (because of all their recent Super Bowl appearances?). Long-time Green Bay executive Jon-Eric Sullivan, who was mostly their Vice President of Player Personnel, was brought on as their next general manager. He poached the Packers’ defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as the team’s next head coach. It was just three years ago that Hafley was the head coach at Boston College. Sullivan inherited a whopping $179.5 million in dead cap money this season — that represents 59.6% of the salary cap. Seven former players are getting paid at least $10 million in dead cap money this season — and only two players on this year’s roster represent cap hits of at least $10 million this year. Good luck trying to be competitive with only 40.4% of the salary cap available to construct a roster. This explains why Tyreek Hill was released, and Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver, but it leaves the wide receiver room thin. In keeping with the Packers’ theme, Sullivan signed Green Bay backup quarterback Malik Willis as a free agent. I don’t love that Hafley is calling the plays on defense since he already has enough on his plate making the transition to NFL head coach. With $55 million of dead cap money still on the books next season, his priority should be simply overseeing enough improvement that he is still around for the 2028-29 season. In a battle between two rebuilding franchises, the Raiders’ climb is a little less steep. Take Las Vegas minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 8 of 11 (73%) NFL TOTALS TEAR continued on Thursday by DELIVERING their 25* NFC West Total of the Month with the 49ers-Rams Under to further their 29 of 44 (66%) NFL over/under streak! Now Frank furthers his 8 of 10 (80%) NFL run with a 25* NFL Divisional Total of the Month for Sunday afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

1* Free Pick on Broncos/Chiefs: over 43½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Arizona Cardinals +10

Arizona was an injury-ravaged team last year.  The Cardinals are a sleeper to start 2026 because they return so many of those guys that were out for the season last year.  They have a lot more talent on their roster than they are getting credit for, especially defensively where they should be the most improved unit in the league.  And Jacoby Brissett found a way to keep them in games last year and has a very high floor.  He also has plenty of playmakers in Love, Harrison, Wilson, McBride and Bourne to get the ball to.  The offensive line should stay healthier this season as well.  The Chargers lost their defensive coordinator to the Baltimore Ravens, and I think that's a big loss.  The defense doesn't have a lot of talent as a whole and will be worse this season.  The offense should be better with Mike McDaniels as coordinator, but it will take some time.  They were also dealt a big blow when C Tyler Bladasz suffered a season-ending injury in training camp after giving him a big contract in the offseason.  Their two starting tackles are returning from injury, and they have two of the worst guards in the NFL.  Justin Herbert will be in a lot of duress again this season, starting in Week 1.  This number is too big.  Give me the Cardinals.

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1* Best Bet on Vikings -2½

No analysis provided.

R&R Totals FREE NFL Over-Under Sunday 9-13-26

UNDER 47 1/2 Arizona/LA Chargers

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The Dallas Cowboys covering the short spread against the New York Giants is the play this Sunday night. Dallas QB Dak Prescott threw for 4,552 yards with 30 touchdowns last year and Dallas should have enough outside weapons with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens against a Giants secondary that remains suspect.

New York will also be starting fresh under new Offensive Coordinator John Harbaugh, while Jaxson Dart is unproven in such high-profile games. Malik Nabers is questionable to play on Sunday while he continues to recover from last year’s ACL injury. This could limit his Giants’ passing attack as well.

Dallas has covered seven out of the last 10 against the Giants. With the line being pushed up under a field goal, the Cowboys advantage at QB and WR should give Dallas the better opportunity to make the play when it counts.

Jim’s Play: 479. Cowboys

Sunday night, MetLife, Week 1. Dallas at the Giants. This is not a mystery logo. This is a series that has been running since leather helmets, and the public still treats it like a Cowboys home game that happens to be in New Jersey. Somebody is laying a number. Somebody is getting it. The ticket is the hook, not the moneyline poster.

Dallas has owned the long ledger. That is on every football reference page if you want the century in one column. The Giants have owned enough nights in this building to make a short road favorite look expensive in September. You do not need an upset graphic. You need a one-score game. A 24–20 Cowboys night cashes the points. A 23–20 Giants night is the gift. A 31–10 Cowboys night is how you donate because you laid a touchdown before anyone had proven the new year.

Week 1 Sunday night does this. The national window wants the star. The building wants noise. Those two things do not always live on the same side of the spread. Last year’s tape in this rivalry has gone both ways. The all-time column still leans Dallas. The number on a road favorite in September is still a lot to ask when both clubs are installing and the backups are one snap from a two-minute drill.

You are not picking the Giants to run the East. You are buying a one-score MetLife night. Confirm the number is still a field goal to a touchdown. Then take the points. Let the public smash the road favorite because the star travels. That is how plus-3.5 gets to the window looking like value.

Bet the home dog of 3 to 7 in Cowboys-Giants games in Week 1 or 2.

That spot since 2018: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average spread of +4.6. (+3.6 units, ROI=32.7%)

Bet against a road favorite of 3 to 6.5 on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.

That spot since 2022: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average spread of -4.2. (+3.5 units, ROI=22.6%)

Bet the underdog in NFC East openers posted inside a touchdown.

That spot since 2023: 11-7 (61.1%) with an average spread of +4.1. (+3.2 units, ROI=16.2%)

Bet Giants plus the number at home when Dallas is a road favorite of 3 to 7.

That spot since 2019: 6-3 (66.7%) with an average spread of +4.8. (+2.6 units, ROI=26.3%)

Enjoy the window. Bet the points. Let the first quarter of the year show up before the chalk does.

( Ive down graded this play based on most books stealing back the hook) 

Our selection is on the Boston Red Sox to defeat the Kansas City Royals on Sunday at 3:05pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Kansas City will start Noah Cameron -- His earned run average might be better on the road. But, his record is much more.

The Royals are a disappointing 18-33 as a road underdog this season.

Boston will start Payton Tolle -- He is turning into one of the top arms in baseball with the season he is having.

The Red Sox really improved when they were on their perfect winning streak. They are 57-43 against non-divisional opponents this season.

The play is on Boston.

AAA Sports