Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Dodgers under 9 -105

1* Free Wiseguy Play on A's +180

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Free Pick on Rangers -184

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Baltimore Orioles -137

The Baltimore Orioles have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall to pull within a half-game of the final wild card spot in the American League.  The Colorado Rockies have gone 2-12 in their last 14 games overall and have the worst record in baseball at 52-86 on the season.  

Kyle Bradish has posted a 4.15 ERA in 26 starts for the Orioles this season.  I'll gladly back Bradish over Gabriel Hughes, who is 0-6 with a 6.61 ERA in nine starts and one relief appearance for the Rockies this season.  Hughes has posted a 10.03 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 26 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

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1* Free Pick on Twins +108

This one comes down to price.

At +108, the books are pricing this game off Tigers starter Troy Melton's 1.86 ERA.

The problem is that number doesn't hold up under the hood.

Melton's Statcast xERA sits at 3.41.

That's a gap of more than a run and a half between what's happened and what should have happened.

His actual wOBA allowed is .270 against an expected .287.

Same story: results better than the process.

The recent tape backs the regression read.

Over his last 3 starts, Melton has given up 22 hits in 17 innings.

Tampa Bay touched him for 7 hits on August 26.

The White Sox got 8 on August 15.

Contact is finding grass more often, and the ERA hasn't caught up yet.

The obvious knock on this play is Twins starter Connor Prielipp and his 5.55 ERA against Melton's 1.86.

Fair.

But that gap is exactly why Minnesota is a home dog here.

The market has already charged you for Prielipp.

It hasn't charged Detroit for Melton's luck.

Detroit's lineup is also nowhere near full strength.

Six position players sit on the IL, including Kerry Carpenter, Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows.

That's a lot of everyday bats replaced by depth pieces on the road.

Minnesota is 66-72 to Detroit's 63-74, so this isn't a bad team catching a good one.

It's two similar teams, one at home, priced like the road side has an ace.

I don't think it does.

I like the Twins

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:

1* on Arizona Diamondbacks +124

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Arizona Diamondbacks at home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies.  Eduardo Rodriquez continues to get no respect.  He is 14-4 with a 2.50 ERA in 27 starts this year, and 8-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 15 home starts.  Rodriquez is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 lifetime starts against the Phillies, and 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in 2 home starts against them.  Jesus Luzardo is 12-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 27 starts this year.  Luzardo is 2-2 with a 5.53 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against the Diamondbacks, and 1-1 with a 7.94 ERA in 3 road starts.  Take Arizona.

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Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Tuesday 9-1-26

Philadelphia @ Arizona  (9:40 PM EST)
Play On:  Arizona +124

The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Tuesday night.  Philadelphia is 78-60 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 73-66 SU overall record on the season.  Arizona is 25-11 this year against left handed starters.  Jesus Luzardo is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA in one start against Arizona this year.  Luzardo is 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA in all starts vs Arizona last 3 years.  Eduardo Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in all starts vs Philadelphia last 3 years including a 0.00 ERA at home during that time.  He is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA at home vs Philadelphia in his career.  Arizona is 11-1 at home this year after 2 or more consecutive losses.  We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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1* Free Sharp Play on Twins +106

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #164 Under in Marshall Thundering Herd @ Penn State Nittany Lions (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 5 FS1) The Matt Campbell era gets underway at Penn State on Saturday. Penn State should still have a strong defense and Coach Campbell is a run the ball and play strong defense type of coach. I don’t think he will want to throw the football up and down the field and focus on field position and ball control. Marshall usually a bowl caliber team and not a mid-major pushover like some teams. They have to run clock to have any chance to keep this game under twenty points and that should set up a strong play for the under. Marshall closed out the season going under the posted total in 3 straight games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays in football, baseball, and soccer. 3 straight winning weeks to open up the football season and you can receive all football plays for half off with a one week football package.

Sam Houston/ Troy Over 53 1.1% Free play

Under 48.5 in Buffalo. That’s the one I want and recommending to all of you.

Thursday night, Albany is on the road at a MAC team that went 5-7 last year and scored 24 a game. Buffalo is laying 24 and a half. They should win. They do not need a 35-burger to get it done. The books hanging 48.5 already told you this is supposed to stay small. Week 1, first Thursday, rust, backups late. That’s punts. Not a track meet.

Albany already played. They beat New Hampshire 28-14 and the under cashed at 46.5. Last season they averaged 16.3 points. That’s two scores and a kick if everything is clean. They are not walking into Broadview and hanging 28. Buffalo scored 24 a night in 2025 and allowed 23.5. Close games. Ugly games. Not 50-point games.

Shop 48 if you can get it. Don’t wait around for 47 and watch the number leave.

Simple way to look at it: if each team puts up 21, you are already home.

21+21=4221 + 21 = 4221+21=42

That’s under 48.5 with six points to spare. Twenty-one is three scores. Asking for 49 in an opener with a three-touchdown spread is a lot. Buffalo 28, Albany 14 is 42. Buffalo 31, Albany 10 is 41. The over needs a leftover touchdown and a special-teams mistake. Week 1 does not give those away as often as people think.

Add last year’s averages and you get the same picture.

16.3+24.0=40.316.3 + 24.0 = 40.316.3+24.0=40.3

That’s eight points under the number before you even tax it for September rust.

Buffalo is a big favorite because Albany is FCS and on the road in Week 1, not because this is about to be 45-17. If the Bulls cover and it finishes 31-7, the under still cashes. Spread and total are different tickets. Take the one that pays when the night stays quiet.

A few spots that keep showing up in this look:

Bet under the total in Albany games as a road underdog.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 5-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 51.5. (+5.0 units, ROI = 90.9%)

Bet under the total in Buffalo home games when the number is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-2 (75%) with an average over/under of 48.8. (+3.6 units, ROI ≈ 45%)

Bet under in Week 1 MAC home games against FCS when the total is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record the last two seasons: 7-2 (77.8%) with an average over/under of 49.1. (+4.4 units, ROI ≈ 49%)

Bet under when Albany plays an FBS team and the number is 52 or lower.
The Under’s record since 2025: 4-1 (80%) with an average over/under of 50.2. (+2.6 units, ROI ≈ 52%)

Grab 48.5. If a shop is still at 49, that’s fine too. I would not start on Buffalo −24.5 when the total is the cleaner number. Check the wind off the lake closer to kick. Keep the unit small. It’s still the first week. People are generally in the dark so the books play it safe, the lines might be tilted . This is one that looks a little crooked and a viable early season bet.

Under 48.5, Albany at Buffalo. That’s the play.

My selection is on Detroit over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Twins took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night. We'll back the Tigers as they try to respond on Tuesday. Troy Melton gets the start for Detroit. He pitched well over seven innings against a tough Rays lineup last time out but was still saddled with the loss in a 3-0 defeat. On the season, Melton is 7-3 with a 3.73 FIP and 1.01 WHIP and while current Twins hitters have had some previous success against him, I'm confident he can navigate their lineup in this spot, noting that while Minnesota did bust out for 11 runs last night, it still ranks middle-of-the-pack in terms of xwOBA over the last week. Andrew Morris gets the start for the Twins, figuring to serve as an 'opener'. The Twins bolstered their bullpen at the trade deadline but it remains unreliable with a 4.68 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over the last month. Look for the Tigers to answer back in this spot. Take Detroit (8*).

1* on Astros +102

FREE PLAY on A's +180