Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Alejandro Tabilo +110

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Tampa Bay Rays -118

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Minnesota Twins were completing a 3-game series in New York against the Mets.  All three of those games were decided by 2 runs or less, and each of their last six games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer so their suspect bullpen has had heavy usage.

The Rays have been a potent offensive team this season scoring 4.8 runs per game while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of their last 12 games overall.  They get to face their former teammate in Taj Bradley for the first time and will clearly have the perfect scouting report on him.  Look for this to be the game Bradley regresses in a major way.

Drew Rasmussen is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  Rasmussen has held the Twins to one earned run and 5 base runners in 8 innings in his last two starts against them.  Bet the Rays Friday.

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1*

1* FREE INFO PLAY Lakers vs Rockets over 206½ -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Reds +121

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Over in Cleveland @ Toronto (7:07p.m., Friday, April 24 MLB.tv) The Blue Jays are struggling this season, and I just do not believe Max Scherzer has much left in the tank. For Toronto to win his starts, they will need to score a bunch of runs and that sets up a strong play with the over. SP Scherzer is 1-2 this season with a 7.16 E.R.A. and a 1.29 WHIP. His opponent on the mound is Gavin Williams, and he has 17 walks in just over 29 innings of work. He has been living dangerously to start this season, and it will eventually catch up with him on Friday. Play the over in this matchup.

Celtics vs 76ers 
7 EST, Friday 
5-Unit bet on the Celtics priced as a 7-point favorite. 

The 76ers are coming off an incredible road win priced as a 14.5-point underdog at the Boston Garden Tuesday. That type of loss gets a superior team refocused to regain control of the playoff series and home court advantage. The Philadelphia fan base is feeding off their NHL Flyers and their remarkable run to get into the playoffs and now up 3-0 against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Teams from the same city can feed off the successes of each other during the playoff runs, but this is a big ask for the 76ers, who will again be without their former MVP Center Joel Embiid.  

Analytically, road favorites of four or more points that are coming off a loss priced as a favorite have bounced back well compiling a 21-6 SU (78%) and 19-7-1 ATS record for 73% winning bets since 2002. If that loss occurred at home, these embarrassed teams respond to the tune of a 7-1 SUATS record for 88% winning bets. 

In fact, home teams that are coming off a playoff upset road win are 123-114 SU (52%), but 95-140-2 ATS. If these teams are priced as home dogs of any size, they fail miserably with a 17-42 SU (29%) and 20-37-1 ATS record for just 35% winning bets since 2002.