Free Football Picks

1* Free Play on Heat -7½ -105

1* NFL - Giants/Commanders FREE PICK on Commanders -3.5

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

1 Dimer on Bucs vs Cowboys under 48½ -108

Ricky's 1* play on DAL.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Bucs are 0-10 ATS in their last last 10 games.

- The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.
  
- The Cowboys are 3-1 in the last 4 head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

1* Free Pick on Bucs +8½ -105

1* Free Pick on Bucs/Cowboys: under 47½

This total is priced off Sunday's shootout, and short-week Thursday football rarely delivers a sequel.

Dallas just played a 64-point game.

The Cowboys trailed Houston 16-6 at halftime and stole it 34-30, with Dak Prescott throwing 45 times for a season-high 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb soaking up 21 of those targets.

That performance is built into 47.5.

Dallas is averaging 30.5 points and allowing 28 through four games, so the books have already pushed this number up.

You make money when you buy, not when you sell, and the buy price on the over here is the worst it's been all season.

Now both teams turn around on three days' rest.

Thursday games get sloppy.

Game plans shrink, legs are heavy, and offenses that live on rhythm tend to look a step slow.

The Cowboys are also patching the offensive line.

Tackle Drew Shelton is doubtful and unlikely to be cleared for Thursday.

Guard Tyler Smith was only cleared to return to practice Monday after opening the season on injured reserve, and he was limited in his first session back.

Getting him activated on a short week is a stretch.

Outside of Lamb, the passing game is thinner than the scores suggest.

Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson sits at 0.71 yards per route run with just 12 catches for 83 yards.

If Lamb doesn't see 21 targets again, Dallas has to grind this one out.

Take the inflated number before it drops.

I like the Under

1* FREE INFO PLAY Bucs vs Cowboys under 48 -110

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Bucs/Cowboys under 48½ -115

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Best Bet on Cowboys -9

No analysis provided.

1* Free Sharp Play on Bucs vs Cowboys under 48½ -110

Thursday NFL Prime time 7-1 Power Run and there is a double perfect Side going. In College Rob has a Week 6 Specific and Thursday night Specific System play going. MLB Comp play below.

The MLB comp play is on Chicago in game 4 at home at 8 eastern. Look for Chicago to bounce back and end the series here tonight. Rob notes that Game 4 road favorites off a road dog win, that lost both the first two games at home are winless since 2004. This game will see Messick and Smith likely go a few innings before the bullpens decide it. Look for the home team to advance play on Chicago. GL Rob V-

Joe D SWEPT last Friday Night, and will SWEEP again this Friday Night. Join me in my 60% NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS WINNER and my 4-1 TOUCHDOWN WINNER and together we go into the weekend with a bankroll.

Friday’s Free Winner: Florida State Seminoles.

Game 317.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

I think this is a very strange line that gives the underdog a lot of value here. FSU enters this matchup with confidence knowing they took the last two meetings against Louisville, both straight up and against the number. Granted, the last time these two rivals met was December 2023. But this season they’re coming into this matchup with very different points of view. The Seminoles come off back-to-back victories, which includes last week ‘s home win as a small underdog against Virginia, 38-7. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have dropped back-to-back games to the Demon Deacons and the Wolfpack, both games they were favored. It’s true, Florida State has a matchup on the road in eight days against Miami. But I doubt this team will be in a look ahead situation. They are focused and taking each game one at a time. They are scoring points with an equally balanced passing and rushing attacks. Their defense has played very well yielding just 21.6 PPG and are monsters against the run. Yes, Louisville accounts for more points and is pretty darn good both in the air as well as on the ground, offensively. But their defense is so bad, yielding 29.2 points per game, and getting steamrolled on the ground and beaten badly in the air. I feel the Seminoles will establish the ground game, move the chains, eat up the clock, which will allow their passing game to open up. They have a very smart head coach, who knows how to set a gameplan. I just feel this is too many points to give a very game and hot visitor. Take Florida State. Thank you.

Florida State plus the points is the Friday number worth taking. The Seminoles are getting 3.5 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville is laying that field goal at about -110, and the moneyline is sitting around +150. Kickoff is 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Cardinals opened 7.5. The market has bet four points off that number. That is not noise. That is the board telling you the opener was a tax.

Louisville is 2-3, 1-2 in the ACC, and the results do not look like a team that should be laying anything. They lost to Ole Miss 38-41 in Nashville, beat Villanova 59-13, beat SMU 41-31, then lost at home to Wake Forest 27-30 and lost at North Carolina State 28-31. Three of the four games against real competition finished by a field goal. The other one, the SMU win, finished by 10. A club whose serious games live inside a score is not a clean 7.5, and it is barely a 3.5. Home record is 2-1. Road and neutral is 0-2. The only road trip of October was a three-point loss in Raleigh.

The offense is why the total is 59.5 and why people want to lay the favorite. Through five games Louisville has scored 193 points, 38.6 a game, and allowed 146, 29.2. They have rushed for 993 yards on 177 carries, 5.61 a pop, with 15 rushing scores. The pass game is 101 of 146 for 1,437 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception, a 173.08 rating. That is 7.52 yards a play against 5.79 for the opponents. Third down is 26 of 57, 45.6 percent. Red zone is 15 of 18. Those are real numbers. They are also the numbers of a team that still found a way to lose three games by a combined 9 points. Scoring is not the same thing as covering.

Florida State is 3-2, 1-1 in the ACC, and the sheet is less pretty than the record. They beat New Mexico State 34-17, lost to SMU 24-27, lost at Alabama 36-50, beat Central Arkansas 34-7, and just beat Virginia 38-7. Sports-reference.com and the season line have them at 419 yards a game, 53rd nationally, with 194 on the ground and 225 through the air. They are scoring 33.2. The defense is the wart. They are allowing 384.8 yards a game, 103rd, and 265.6 through the air, 127th. Rush defense is fine, 119.2 a game. The pass defense is how a 59.5 gets posted on a Friday night in Louisville. Seven turnovers against three takeaways is the other wart. This is not a complete team. It is a team getting a field goal against a 2-3 host.

The road skid is the objection, and it is a real one. Florida State has not won away from Doak since 2023. The streak is at 10. The only road game this year was Tuscaloosa, a 14-point loss to Alabama in which they still covered a number in the high teens. That is 0-1 straight up on the road and 1-0 against the spread. A decade of road pain is why they are a dog. It is not a reason to lay 3.5 with a team that just lost by three at home to Wake and by three on the road to NC State. One-score games are how dogs cash. Louisville has been playing one-score games with everybody who is not Villanova.

Bet Florida State plus the points as a road dog after the spread has moved at least three points in their direction. The Seminoles' record in road games this season: 0-1 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. The only game was Alabama, a 36-50 loss that stayed inside an 18.5-point number. One game is not a system. It is the only road page on the sheet, and the ticket cashed.

Bet against Louisville laying more than a field goal at home in a game against an ACC opponent. The Cardinals' record in home games decided by a score this season: 1-1, a 10-point win over SMU and a 3-point loss to Wake Forest. Average margin in those two: 3.5. The number on Friday is 3.5. They have already played the margin they are being asked to cover.

The total is the trap for anyone who reads the yardage and stops. Louisville has gone over in four of five. Florida State has stayed under in four of five, including a 38-7 win over Virginia that finished under 51.5. Two teams, two different totals profiles, a 59.5 sitting in the middle. Pass it. The bet is the side. Shop +3.5. If the hook disappears and it is +3, the moneyline at +150 is the cleaner ticket. A push is how Friday favorites steal a week.

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8 pm et on Thursday.

On a perfect night for October baseball in the Windy City, we'll call for this total to prove too low as the White Sox once again try to close out the Guardians. Parker Messick gets his second start of the series for Cleveland. His performance has waned in recent starts as he hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts and will pitch on just four days' rest on Thursday after throwing 87 pitches in a Game 1 defeat. Of course, it will be all hands on deck for the Cleveland pitching staff as it faces elimination. With that being said, the Guardians 'pen hasn't been the same lights out unit that we saw during the regular season in this series. Hagen Smith will start in an 'opener' role for Chicago. Facing elimination, the Guardians figure to stay aggressive at the plate after last night's series-saving nine-run outburst. Take the over.

Our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday at 8:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tampa Bay hasn't won a single game yet. But, the good thing is that the division isn't great either this season.

The Buccaneers didn't look that bad last week with Daniels in at QB.

With a week under his belt, we're anticipating Daniels to have an even better performance on Thursday.

Dallas hasn't been extremely impressive either, winning just two of it's first four games.

The Cowboys have allowed 112 points over the four games -- an average of 28.0 points a game.

We're on TB.

AAA Sports

1* on Hawks +9½

FREE PLAY on Bucs +8½