Free Football Picks

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Louisville ML -115

The Louisville Cardinals will be playing with double revenge here.  Jeff Brohm is 29-13 at Louisville, but two of those losses came to the SMU Mustangs over the last two seasons.  After falling 34-27 at home to SMU in 2024, the Cardinals were blown out 38-6 at SMU last year.  It's safe to say they have had this game circled all offseason.

Louisville's only loss by more than 7 points over the last two seasons came 38-6 to SMU last year.  But that loss comes with a big asterisk.  The Cardinals were coming off two losses to Cal and Clemson by a combined 4 points that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They were flat as a pancake against SMU with nothing to play for.  QB Miller Moss and both stud RB's were out for that game for Louisville, too.

Now the Cardinals are loaded in 2026 and a legit ACC title contender.  Brohm crushed the transfer portal in the offseason bringing in eight transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Cardinals 14 returning starters overall.  They have arguably the best 1-2 punch at RB in the country in Isaac Brown (884 yards, 7 TD, 8.8 YPC last year) and Keyjuan Brown (704 yards, 6 TD, 7.3 YPC).  They added QB Lincoln Kienholz who was in a battle with Julian Sayin last season for the starting QB job at Ohio State.  They also added Vandy WR transfer Tre Richardson and FSU WR transfer Lewayne McCoy to give Kienholz the weapons he needs to succeed.

Four starters and four of the top nine tacklers are back from a defense that allowed just 21.2 points per game last season.  And defense is where Brohm gets overlooked because he's an offensive guy, but he notoriously has great defenses as his teams have allowed 21.3 points per game or fewer in three of the last four seasons, and the 24.1 points per game in 2024 was the lone exception.  The Cardinals are loaded at LB this season and bring back their best defensive lineman in DE Cleve Lubin (61 tackles, 8.5 sacks last year).

Louisville opened with an impressive 41-38 loss at the buzzer to Ole Miss, which made the college football playoff semifinals last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  Keinholz was shaky in the first half of his first start which was understandable.  But he settled in and shined in the 2H, finishing with 307 passing yards and 2 TD along with 69 rushing yards and a score.  His dual-threat ability will give Brohm a ton of versatility with his offense moving forward.  The Cardinals had to play five days later and blasted Villanova 59-13 on September 11th.  They get an extra day to prepare for SMU now and it is a hidden advantage heading into this game.

No question Rhett Lashlee is one of the better coaches in the country with what he has been able to do at SMU.  But he has also benefited from a pretty soft schedule the last two seasons.  I like this SMU offense led by QB Kevin Jennings, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Mustangs only returned three starters on defense this season and I think will take a step back on that side of the ball.

SMU's 27-24 win at Florida State in the opener isn't that impressive.  FSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country again this season, struggling with New Mexico State at home in the opener.  I fully expect the Seminoles to get blasted by Alabama this week.  SMU came back with a 56-10 win over UC Davis and wasn't tested there either.  

The fact that Louisville has been tested against a team of Ole Miss' caliber will pay dividends late in this game.  I believe the Cardinals are the better team this season, and with home-field advantage this game shouldn't be lined below -3.  Bet Louisville on the money line Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7161-6250 Run L3294 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $318,440! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $181,450 since January 1st, 2022!

No. 2 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L14 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1228-1026 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $104,420! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25!

Jack is off to a 17-10 CFB Start this season to add to his 49-28 CFB Run since last season on the NCAA gridiron! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 11-Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge are FIVE 20* Top Plays as he adds to his 672-516 Run on college football top plays rated 20* or higher!

Sign up and bet with confidence knowing you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or the next day of college football is ON JACK!

Ricky's 1* play on CHW.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The White Sox are 7-3 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

- The Tigers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.

- David Sandlin is 3-2 in his last 5 starts for the White Sox.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

1* Free Pick on Raiders +7

The Chargers opened as double-digit home favorites against Arizona last week and lost 26-14.

Now the market is asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a better opponent.

That's a price I'll take.

Both teams have played 1 game this season, so this is about the matchup and the number, not streaks.

And the Week 1 tape favors Vegas.

The Raiders posted 5 sacks against Miami, tied for the NFL lead, with Kwity Paye getting 2 and Maxx Crosby adding 1.5.

Justin Herbert was sacked 3 times by Arizona and threw a pick.

That pass rush against that protection is the core of this play.

Herbert's weapons are thinning out too.

Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith landed on injured reserve.

If McConkey sits or plays limited, this offense runs through Quentin Johnston, who caught 2 of 6 targets last week.

On the other side, Ashton Jeanty went 23 for 102 on the ground and added 6 catches for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He controls tempo and keeps this game short.

The fair knock on Vegas is Kirk Cousins.

Two interceptions and 160 passing yards in Week 1 is real, and he'll give one away here too.

But I don't need Cousins to win the game.

I need Jeanty and that front seven to keep it inside a touchdown, and the Raiders held Miami to 13 points and 259 total yards doing exactly that.

Getting the full 7 covers the most common margin in football.

That's line value.

I like the Raiders

1* NFL - Steelers/Patriots FREE PICK on Patriots -5

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Texas State -2.5

The Key: Texas State is 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS this year with a couple misleading losses.  They lost 59-7 at Texas but were only outgained by 167 yards.  They lost 31-26 at home to UTSA despite outgaining the Roadrunners by 83 yards.  North Texas is 1-1 SU but 2-0 ATS this season losing by 36 to Indiana as 40.5-point dogs and crushing UNLV 44-6 as 3-point dogs.  That blowout win over UNLV has the Mean Green getting too much respect.  UNLV was in a terrible spot coming off a win at Hawaii, having to travel back home and then back out to Texas.  The Rebels didn't show up at all.  Keep in mind North Texas is replacing all 22 starters this season and was expected to be one of the worst teams in the nation.  Texas State had 11 starters back and was supposed to be one of the better Group of 6 teams.  Texas State outgained UTSA by 83 yards despite playing without its top two receivers in Sample and Sparks.  There's a good chance Sample returns this week and Sparks possibly could too.  That would give the offense a huge boost.  But I like the Bobcats either way here.  I expect an inspired effort after their 0-2 start against a tough schedule.  Take Texas State.

**5X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2011, the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2009 and the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2008! He had his best season to date finishing as the #2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020!He also finished as the #4 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2024 two seasons ago! He is also on a 151-112 Run on NCAAF 7* Top Plays as well as a 29-17 NCAAF Run since last year! Give your book the beating it deserves in Week 3 and hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 13-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* Michigan State/Notre Dame NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* along with twelve 6* picks for you to crush your book with today ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get his next day of NCAA Football picks for FREE!

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Alabama -19

The Alabama Crimson Tide enter Year 3 of the Kalen DeBoer era.  He has the players in place now to fit his system, and the Crimson Tide are off and running.  Alabama crushed East Carolina 48-10 as 28.5-point home favorites in the opener before also throttling Kentucky 45-17 as 9.5-point favorites on the road to open SEC play.  There will be no letdown here as Alabama wants revenge from a shocking loss to Florida State last season.  But this is a very bad Florida State team.  The Seminoles only beat New Mexico State 34-17 as 31.5-point home favorites in their opener.  They only outgained the Aggies by 100 yards.  Their 27-24 home loss to SMU last week was probably the most misleading final of the season to this point.  SMU had 585 yards and 8.7 per play on offense but committed four turnovers.  FSU managed just 324 yards and 4.8 per play, getting outgained by 261 yards and 3.9 per play.  There are already rumors that Mike Norvell will be fired after this game.  Give me Alabama.

*Top 10 Overall Capper 4 of L10 Years!*

*#1 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020-21!*

*#1 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2012-13!*

*#2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2017-18!*

*#2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2016-17!*

*#3 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2008-09!*

*#9 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2014-15!*

*#10 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2018-19!*

*#10 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2024-25!*

*1932-1681 Football Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $84,970)*

*1652-1469 NCAAF Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $46,780)*

*921-780 Run on NCAAF 5 Unit Top Plays!*

I am the #7 Ranked Football Capper All-Time on this network! I am a 5-Time Top 3 NCAAF Capper on this network! I am riding a 17-2 Football Top Plays Run which includes a 11-2 NCAAF Top Plays Run! Come bet with a proven winner this weekend and get your hands on my Saturday All-Inclusive NCAAF 15-Pack for $49.99! This card features FIVE 5 Unit BEST BETS for you to feast on! You pay *ONLY $3.33/Play* for all 15 winners, and you are GUARANTEED-to-PROFIT or I'll send you my next day of NCAAF plays for FREE!

1* Free Sharp Play on Orioles +140

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take San Jose +0.5 GL over LAFC (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday September 19) San Jose hadn’t won a match since the World Cup up until recently but lo and behold they have now won two straight and look like a completely different side. They manhandled a good San Diego side on the road in a 3-2 win that was more dominant than the final score might indicate. And last week they gutted out a 1-0 win here at home vs. a Houston side that is one of the top teams in the Western Conference. We were on San Jose in that one and mentioned in our writeup that one of the main problems with the Earthquakes since the World Cup break is that they were lacking confidence and now they seem to have it back in spades and their play has been exceptionally strong. They are now unbeaten in four straight matches, and they are back in a Top 4 spot in the West with a chance to move higher with three points here. We only need a draw however, to cash this ticket, and we think they can do enough to get at least a point. LAFC is coming off a 3-1 road loss at Kansas City, one of MLS’s worst sides. LAFC are behind the Earthquakes in the standings despite all the struggles San Jose has faced since the World Cup break. They have only one win in their last eight MLS matches, and this side is just not playing championship-caliber futbol right now. San Jose always raises their level of play when LAFC comes to town and have won five of the last six meetings here.

UNDER 48

Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL O/U Play

FOOTBALL IS HERE! 425-360 54% +2875 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. Tons of football up this week. Purchase a 7-day pass for best value! Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access too! Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Saturday's CFB Free Pick

PLAY ON: Miss State +4

Saturday night in Los Angeles has that rematch-tax feel, a title fight priced like a coin flip because the first one lasted 26 seconds, and plus-110 on Alexandre Pantoja is the side I want you holding. Not because Joshua Van is a mirage. Because Van is 17-2 and the champ, and the market flipped a former titleholder into plus money off an arm injury, not off five rounds of solved tape. You are not fading Van to lose his belt in a street fight. You are fading the idea that 26 seconds is a hierarchy. That is a different ticket. Decision cashes. Late stoppage cashes. A wrestling grind into a submission is the gift. The chalk is the dart if you want to pay juice to sleep. The plus money is the work.

Bet Pantoja as a plus-money rematch dog after an injury stoppage under one minute. First meeting at UFC 323: Van by TKO at 0:26 after Pantoja’s arm gave out, not after Van pieced him up for 25 minutes. Pantoja entered that booking as a sizable favorite in the minus-185 to minus-270 range. Now he sits plus-110 to plus-118. That flip is the number. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%). Bet former champions getting immediate rematches when the first fight produced almost no film. Pantoja 30-6, belt for more than two years, 12 career submissions. Van 17-2 with one successful defense, a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328. The tape on this pairing is still a scramble. (+1.0 units, ROI=81.8%). Bet the dog when the favorite’s title win is a 26-second sample and the veteran’s path is wrestling and pace. If this starts round two, the injury result starts looking like a bad price, not a settled pecking order. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%).

Van is the younger pressure fighter and the market is buying the momentum. Fair. He is 17-2, the flyweight champion, and he finished Taira in the fifth after a long, ugly climb. That is real. The other side of the ledger is just as loud if you actually read it. Pantoja is 30-6. He held the belt more than two years. He has 12 submission wins. His whole career has been get it to the mat, squeeze the air out of the room, and make five-round title fights feel like a tax. A full camp and a healthy arm is a different animal than a first-minute scramble that ended before anyone’s corner could stand up. Van by decision or late stoppage is the public script. Pantoja by control and a late hook is the ticket that still has math behind it.

The rest of the plus-money board at UFC 331 is louder and thinner, which is how main-card dogs get you chasing heat instead of price. Mauricio Ruffy is plus-245 to plus-270 against Arman Tsarukyan, 14-2 power against a 23-3 wrestler who wants a lightweight title shot. That is a one-punch live dog, not a process. Marlon Vera is plus-180 to plus-200 against Charles Jourdain, a former title challenger on a four-fight skid, 23-12-1 with 18 career finishes, eight by knockout and 10 by submission, still dangerous late and still leaking decisions. Alonzo Menifield is plus-190 to plus-215 against Iwo Baraniewski, veteran 18-6-1 power versus a 9-0 kid with three straight first-round knockouts in the UFC and an average fight time near a minute. Those are action tickets. You can sprinkle them if you like chaos. They are not the cleanest number on the card.

UFC stats sheets do not care about coronation graphics. Van’s recent form is pressure, volume, and a fifth-round finish. Pantoja’s career sheet is title minutes, takedown sequences, and a submission rate that turns round four into a different sport. The first fight did not test either of those things. It tested an elbow. Over 3.5 rounds is sitting in a range that tells you the market itself does not believe this ends in 26 seconds again. Fight goes the distance is plus money. Pantoja by submission is the long shot that actually matches his 12-sub ledger if he ever gets on top. I am not asking you to live on method props. I am asking you to stop treating an injury TKO like a five-round dissertation.

Public money will hammer Van because he is the champ, because Taira went away in the fifth, and because “once you have the belt the rematch is yours.” That is how plus-110 gets to the window looking like a fade instead of a former champion priced off a broken sample. Do not buy this down into a pick’em and pay extra juice to feel safer. The plus-110 is the reason I am writing it. Sit on your hands. Let the first two minutes look messy. If they are still standing in round two and Pantoja has even one takedown in the bank, the number is already working.

I’ve sat through enough rematch cards to know the chaos is real, 26-second titles create fake certainty, young champs get bet like they’ve already solved the veteran, and a 30-6 former titleholder with 12 submissions does not turn into a plus-money tourist just because an arm gave out before the first commercial. If Van walks through him again, we tip the cap and move on. If this thing lives in the wrestling and the late minutes, the plus money does what we paid it to do. That is the bet. Take Pantoja. Do not overthink the 26-second coronation. The first fight did not answer the question. Alexandre Pantoja plus-110 is the play.

My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Georgia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Arkansas on Saturday as it hosts Georgia. The Bulldogs are off to a flawless start, winning their first two games in blowout fashion at home. Needless to say, this will be their toughest test to date after hosting FCS squad Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. The Razorbacks are sure to be in a foul mood after they were crushed 43-10 at Utah last week. Arkansas had opened the season with a 31-14 victory over FCS opponent North Alabama in Week 1. I do think the needle is pointing up for the Hogs - it has to be after a miserable two-win campaign a year ago. While I certainly don't anticipate Arkansas pulling off the massive upset here, I do think it can hang tough against a Georgia team that won't hit the road again until October 10th when it travels to Tuscaloosa. Take Arkansas (8*).

Our selection is on the Miami Florida Hurricanes to defeat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Friday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Miami Florida has become a fan favorite team in College Football this season. Malachi Toney is a big part of the reason.

With his big performance in week 1, Toney didn't have to do anything in the 77-7 week 2 win.

The Hurricanes are as explosive of an offensive team as anyone and this is a great opening ACC matchup for them.

Wake Forest has allowed 52 points over it's first two games -- 36 last week against Purdue.

The Demon Deacons are 0-8 straight up over their L8 games against Miami since 1944.

We're on Miami.

AAA Sports