Free Football Picks

[1%] Free Play on Spurs -14 -110

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints PK

1* FREE INFO PLAY Veres +145

1* Free Sharp Play on Eintracht Frankfurt -105

Friday card has a TOP CFL Platinum Supreme move and our Famous Friday night Hot side headlining in CFB in BIG 10 Action. NHL Comp play below

The NHL comp play is on Colorado -1.5 goals at 9:05 eastern. The Avalanche after a hot start have cooled down a bit, but tonight they are in a rare system that plays on home favorites at -180 or higher that are off a home favored loss and scored 2 or less goals and are taking on a team like Pittsburgh that is on off a road favored loss if the total in this game is higher than 6. There have been 5 teams fitting this criteria since 2007. All have won by more than 1 goal. Colorado has won 4 of in the series and we will back them to get the multiple goal win. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #209239 Atlante/Pumas UNAM DRAW (+235) (11 p.m., Friday, October 16 Fox Sports Deportes) Liga MX.

We see value in the draw between two sides struggling to find consistency. Atlante has shared the points in five of its first 11 league matches, including three of five at home. With just one home victory, the hosts have had trouble turning competitive performances into wins. Pumas UNAM has defensive concerns of its own, conceding 11 goals over its last five matches. That makes the visitors difficult to trust to claim all three points on the road. We expect a closely contested matchup with chances for both teams, but neither side doing enough to pull away. At +235, take the draw. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC and soccer. Sign-up with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Wyoming -7.5

Locking this in early.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

 UCLA is laying 2.5–3 at home against a 4-1 Wisconsin team on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl, with the total sitting in the low-to-mid 40s. The number has been short and relatively stable in that range. Wisconsin is the better ATS side this season, and a short home favorite against a team already 4-1 is the tax. The points are the work.

 Wisconsin sits at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten), averaging 31.6 points while allowing 16.6. The Badgers have been efficient on both sides of the ball (6.2 yards per play on offense, strong defensive numbers), with a perfect red-zone scoring rate and solid control in recent wins. They opened with a loss to Notre Dame but have since reeled off four straight victories, including a 24-20 road win at Penn State and a 31-3 home win over Michigan State. Wisconsin is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 on the total. Their defense has limited opponents to roughly 16–17 points per game, and the offense has been balanced enough to stay in games without relying on explosive variance.

UCLA is 5-0 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked around No. 12, averaging 39.2 points while allowing 18.0. The Bruins have covered in every game so far (5-0 ATS) and have wins over California, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, and a 17-15 road upset at Oregon as double-digit underdogs. Their offense has been productive, particularly on the ground (over 1,200 rushing yards), but the quarterback situation is a major variable: Nico Iamaleava left the Oregon game with injuries and is expected to be limited or out, elevating Ty Dieffenbach or another option. UCLA’s defense has been opportunistic and strong in key spots, though the Oregon win was a tight, low-scoring grind. They are 3-2 on the total.

Power ratings and models generally view the teams as close on a neutral field, with UCLA’s undefeated record and recent cover streak supporting a short home favorite. Wisconsin’s defensive metrics and recent ATS success against quality opponents keep the number tight.

This is a physical Big Ten road test at the historic Rose Bowl. Wisconsin’s defense, which has limited scoring and yards effectively, faces a UCLA offense that has been efficient but may operate without its primary quarterback. The Bruins’ rushing attack and opportunistic defense will try to control tempo and create short fields. Wisconsin’s ability to stay balanced and avoid turnovers (they have been solid in that department) gives them a path to keep the game within a field goal or force a push/cover scenario.

The total in the low-to-mid 40s reflects both defenses’ ability to limit scoring. UCLA has trended over in some games but under in others, including the Oregon win; Wisconsin has mixed results but has shown it can grind. Weather at the Rose Bowl looks warm and clear. Any confirmed absence of Iamaleava tilts the matchup further toward Wisconsin’s physical style and the points.

UCLA leads the all-time series roughly 7-4. The teams have not met since 2000, when Wisconsin won 21-20. Wisconsin has taken the last three meetings overall (1993, 1998, and 2000). Games have tended to be competitive, with Wisconsin never winning by more than seven points in the series. Road games have been close historically, and the short number this week fits the pattern of tight contests rather than blowouts.

Key trends include Wisconsin’s success in lower-scoring or one-score environments against UCLA, and the general tendency for short favorites in Big Ten games to face cover pressure when the underdog has a strong defensive profile and recent form. The sample is small given the long gap between meetings, but the competitive nature of past results supports the idea that a 2.5–3 point home favorite is not a large edge.

UCLA is the undefeated home team with the cover streak and the higher scoring average, which is why the number has settled at a short 2.5–3 rather than something larger. Wisconsin’s 4-1 record, defensive strength, recent ATS success (including a road cover at Penn State), and the fact that short home favorites against teams already 4-1 carry a built-in tax make the points the side the number is arguing for. The quarterback uncertainty for UCLA adds another layer that favors the underdog staying within the number.

If the juice on Wisconsin +3 stays reasonable, the points with the team that has the better recent ATS profile and a defense capable of keeping the game tight is the lean. Shop the number (it has moved between 2.5 and 3.5 in spots) and monitor the UCLA quarterback situation through the week. In a Big Ten matchup with both teams playing well, the short home favorite is the tax; the points are the work.

Luke Fickell is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Wisconsin this season, including a 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS stretch after the Notre Dame loss, with the last two covers coming as a double-digit home favorite against Eastern Michigan and as a short road underdog at Penn State.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS overall and has already covered as a 9.5-point road underdog at Penn State. The Badgers are 1-0 ATS in their only true road game this season and are coming off a bye after a 31-3 home win over Michigan State.

UCLA is 5-0 ATS and is laying a short number at home after a ranked road win. Teams that are 5-0 ATS and coming off a ranked road win have covered less often when the next number is a field goal or less against a team that is already 3-2 ATS.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four games, including the road upset at Penn State. The Badgers are getting points on the road against a short home favorite that the market has already moved toward the visitor.

The number opened UCLA -3 and is now -2.5. Wisconsin is the side that has already covered as a road underdog this year. UCLA is the side that has not been asked to lay a short number after a ranked road win. That is the spot.

Bet the road dog of 3 or fewer in a Big Ten game against a home favorite that just lost its starting quarterback.
Road dogs of 3 or fewer against home favorites with a backup or first-time starter at quarterback (since the early 2000s): 27-14 ATS (65.9%). At -110, 27 wins and 14 losses is +11.5 unit$, ROI=28.0%.

Bet Wisconsin as a road underdog of 3 or fewer.
Wisconsin’s ATS record as a road underdog of 3 or fewer in conference games (last 15 years available): 8-4 (66.7%). At -110, that is +3.3 unit$, ROI=27.5%.

Bet against a short home favorite of 3 or fewer that is missing its starting quarterback.
Home favorites of 3 or fewer missing their starting quarterback for the first time that season (since 2005): 11-22 ATS (33.3%). At -110, 11 wins and 22 losses is -12.1 unit$, ROI=-36.7%

My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and BYU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This has the potential to be the game of the week but I'm expecting it to be a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair. Notre Dame checks in off a 58-7 dismantling of a bad Stanford team last week. The Irish did whatever they wanted on offense all afternoon long in that no-doubter. They'll obviously be up against a much more difficult challenge on Saturday as they head on the road to take on undefeated BYU. The Cougars have posted back-to-back 'under' results, allowing 10 points against both TCU and Iowa State. This game does represent a step up in class but I think they'll be up for it, noting they've given up a grand total of 67 points in five games this season. Notre Dame's offense gets a lot of the attention but the Irish defense has been dominant this season as well. They've allowed more than 13 points in a game just once through six contests, that coming in a 37-26 win at a good North Carolina team two weeks ago. Even in games where they've essentially called off the dogs and lifted starters, the Irish have still kept opposing offenses at bay. BYU knows its clearest path to pulling off the 'upset' here comes by taking care of the football and grinding it out on offense, effectively shortening proceedings. Take the under (8*).

Penguins vs Avalanche NHL FREE PICK

The Angle(s): The Pittsburgh Penguins can score, but their defense is leaking. They just gave up five goals to Chicago, and their young netminder Sergei Murashov stopped only 15 shots in that loss.

That’s a dangerous combination against a Colorado attack averaging close to 4.5 goals per game, but the Avs aren’t airtight either, allowing about three goals per game. Recent meetings have opened up, and I expect both teams to find the back of the net often enough to push this past the number.

The Bet: Over (3%). 

35-23 (59%) run, +$10,500 on $1k flat bets dating back to Sep 30! Mike has 3 premium picks across CFB, MLB and NHL going Friday. With a big weekend ahead, Grab a 3-day subscription for just $99.95 and get ALL Mike's picks, ALL MAX BETS INCLUDED, for a fixed small cost. 

Ricky's 1* play on PUR.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Purdue are 3-1 in their last 4 games.

- Washington are 0-3 in their last 3 games.

- Purdue are 3-1 in their last 4 home games.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.