Free Football Picks

1* NFL - Giants/Commanders FREE PICK on Commanders -3.5

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

There is going to be a lot of passing in this game. The Packers heavily rely on Jordan Love and his three excellent receivers - Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft - because they can't run the ball. Love has thrown multiple TD passes every game this season.

The Packers' vulnerable offensive line gave up zero sacks and only two hits on 30 pass attempts against the Buccaneers last week. The Bears do not have a big pass rush. 

Statistically the Bears have improved their defense since giving up a shocking 37 points and 478 yards to the Panthers in Week 1. But I am not sold on Chicago's defense. Since then, the Bears got to play the Vikings in a rainstorm, went against a broken Eagles offense and a Jets offense that was missing Breece Hall and had Geno Smith play his worst game of the year.

The Bears are going to do damage against Green Bay's defense even with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent. He is surrounded by excellent skill position players and will be passing more this week in his second start of the season. The Packers are without their top linebacker, injured Edgerrin Cooper.

1*

1* Free Pick on 49ers/Seahawks: over 45½

These two offenses are combining for almost 57 points a game and the total sits at 45.5.

That gap is the whole bet.

The 49ers are 4-0 and scoring 30.5 a game.

Brock Purdy leads the league with 11 touchdown passes and hasn't taken a sack through four games.

When the quarterback is clean and protected, points follow.

The weapons are rolling too.

George Kittle has at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games.

Christian McCaffrey has 4 rushing touchdowns and 340 total yards.

Mike Evans is active after clearing the injury report.

Seattle is scoring 26.25 a game and has hit 30 or more in three of four, including 30 on the Chargers last week.

Sam Darnold's offense isn't the run-heavy grinder people remember.

Now the real driver: San Francisco's defense is stripped down.

Nick Bosa is out.

DT James Thompson Jr. misses a third straight game.

Safety Marques Sigle is out.

Slot corner Upton Stout is questionable with an AC joint sprain and unlikely to go after one limited practice.

That's the pass rush and the secondary both compromised on the road.

Recent results back the number too.

The 49ers' game with the Cardinals two weeks ago landed on 66.

Seattle's trip to Washington produced 64.

Both offenses keep finding themselves in games that clear this total with room.

Two healthy, efficient offenses.

One banged-up defense.

A total priced below what both teams have been producing all season.

I like the Over

1* FREE INFO PLAY Strasbourg +197

2026 CFB Total of the Year $$ big on Saturday. SUNDAY Card with a 10* NFL Conference Play of the Year with 2 100% Systems and 23-1 stat, we also have a TOP Total, the RED ZONE Play, 100% MLB N.L.C.S System and MLB. Comp play below

 The NFL Comp play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 eastern. Rob notes that road teams like the Colts that a dog of 7 or less are 1-5 straight up and to the spread coming off a neutral site game with less than 5 days rest. That system was perfect since 2003 until last week when Dallas came back to beat Houston. Pittsburgh has won 9 of 10 at home vs the Colts in the series. The Steelers have won and covered 4 of 5 at home off a loss. The Colts are 1-8 as a road dog off a win. The Steelers have been solid winning their first two here and if they could contain The Colts run game and Taylor they should get a cover here. Play on Pittsburgh. GL Rob V-

The under in London is the number the injury report already priced, and then stopped short of. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are at Tottenham on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET. The Jaguars are 3-1 and laying 7.5, about -370. The Eagles are 2-2 and getting 7.5, about +295. The total opened 44.5. It is 41.5 or 42 now. Pro-football-reference has the game at 42. That two-point drop is the market admitting the Eagles cannot score. It is not enough of a drop.

Philadelphia is the reason. They are at 18.8 points a game, 26th, and 178.3 passing yards, 30th. Jalen Hurts has 713 yards through the air. Saquon Barkley has 182 on the ground and is not expected to play. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. DeVonta Smith, the leading receiver at 235 yards, is questionable with a hamstring. Dallas Goedert is questionable. Hollywood Brown is questionable. Lane Johnson retired. Cam Jurgens was traded. The center is questionable. That is a third-string back, a third center, and a receiver room held together with hope, on a seven-hour flight, for a 9:30 kick. Last week they put up 20 in the first half against the Rams and got shut out in the second. The final was 24-20. A team that can go silent for 30 minutes at home is not a team you buy the over on in London.

Jacksonville is the other half, and it is not a pinball defense. They have allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3 a game, and they lead the league with six interceptions. Trevor Lawrence is completing 69.2 percent with eight touchdowns and two picks. Bhayshul Tuten is the run game. Liam Coen's group is 3-1 and playing like it. A short Eagles offense against a defense that has not given up 20 a game is how a 42 becomes a 34. The Jaguars can win this and still leave the over dead. That is the entire bet.

The spread is the sucker ticket sitting next to it. The look-ahead was Jacksonville -4.5. It is -7.5 because Barkley and Smith hit the report. Laying more than a touchdown at Tottenham, after a three-point steam, on a morning kick, is how London games eat a card. Jacksonville is the better team. The total is the number that matches the bodies.

Bet the under in an NFL game in London when one team is under 20 points a game and missing its lead back. The Eagles' scoring this season: 18.8 a game through four, 26th. The only recent page is a 24-20 loss in which the second half was a zero. One shutout half is not a system. It is the last tape, and the total has already moved two points toward it.

Bet the under against a defense allowing 14 or fewer points a game when the opponent is ranked 25th or worse in scoring. Jacksonville has allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3. Philadelphia is 26th in scoring. The posted total is 42, down from 44.5. Average points in a Jaguars game so far sits near 26 if you only count what they have given up and what a bottom-five offense has managed. The 42 is still a gift.

Shop it. A 42 is the number. A 41.5 is better. If it drifts back to 43 because the public sees Trevor Lawrence and a London shootout that is not on the sheet, take the under and ignore the story. Do not pair it with the Jaguars -7.5. The side is a different bet, and the juice on that moneyline is a tax. The total is the one the injury report wrote and the board only half believed.

NFL BETTING UPDATE REPORT: Four weeks. Sixty-four games into the NFL season. The sheet is already talking, and it is not talking for the favorite. This is the tape. It is not a card. Home clubs are winning 56.3 percent straight up. That is the building. It is not the number. Favorites against the spread are 26–34–4, 43.8 percent, minus-10.4 units. Underdogs are 34–26–4, 56.3 percent, plus-5.0 units. The public is still laying the logo. The logo is still missing the hook. Week by week the fade got louder. Favorites covered 60 percent in Week 1, 50 percent in Week 2, 37.5 percent in Week 3, and 26.7 percent in Week 4. That is not a one-Sunday blip. That is a month of chalk failing to cash. Underdogs against the spread through the first four weeks of 2026 are 34–26–4 (56.3 percent). Favorites are 26–34–4 (43.8 percent). (+5.0 unit$ on the dog side. The favorite side is minus-10.4 units.) The cleanest cut is the division dog. Divisional underdogs are 12–5 against the spread, 70.6 percent, plus-6.1 units. Divisional favorites are 5–12, 29.4 percent, minus-7.5 units. Same games. Opposite side of the ticket. A division Sunday has not been a spot where the bigger logo covered just for being the bigger logo. Divisional dogs against the spread in 2026, through Week 4: 12–5 (70.6 percent). The favorite side of those games is 5–12. (+6.1 unit$, ROI=33.9% on the dog.) Prime time is the other split. Prime-time dogs are 9–3–1 against the spread, 73.1 percent, plus-5.2 units. Prime-time favorites are 3–9–1, 26.9 percent, minus-6.3 units. A national window is how the home chalk gets the tickets. It has not been how the chalk covers. Prime-time dogs against the spread in 2026: 9–3–1 (73.1 percent). Prime-time favorites: 3–9–1 (26.9 percent). (+5.2 unit$, ROI=36.1% on the dog.) Home dogs are 14–9–1, 60.4 percent, plus-3.7 units. Road dogs are 20–17–3, a lean, not a hammer. Road favorites are 9–14–1, 39.6 percent, minus-5.8 units. Laying a number on the road has been the worst regular job on the board. Double-digit favorites are 1–2 against the spread. The truck has not been a cover. Home favorites are 17–20–3, 46.3 percent, minus-4.6 units. Road favorites in 2026 are 9–14–1 ATS (39.6 percent), minus-5.8 units. Home dogs are 14–9–1 (60.4 percent), plus-3.7 units. Totals are a coin flip with a split inside it. Overs and unders sit at 32–32 on one sheet and 31–32 on another. Average combined score is 46.2. Games posted over 50 have gone over 5–2, 71.4 percent, plus-2.5 units. Games posted 40 or under have gone over only 2–4, 33.3 percent, so the under in that band is 4–2. The short number has lived low. The fat number has lived high. Prime-time overs are 8–5. That fights the side. Prime-time dogs have covered. Prime-time games have still found points. Games posted over 50 through four weeks: overs 5–2 (71.4 percent). (+2.5 unit$, ROI=32.1%.) Games posted 40 or lower: overs 2–4 (33.3 percent). The under is 4–2. (−2.2 units on the over side of that band.) The team sheet has one perfect cover club. The Raiders are 4–0 against the spread and 3–1 straight up, covered as a favorite and as a dog. The 49ers are 4–0 and 3–1 against the number. The Colts and Bears are 3–1 against the spread. That is the 2026 tape. A perfect cover month is not the same thing as the next number. The historical rhyme is the one this league has sung for years. Home dogs in the mid-50s to 60 percent against the number. Favorites closer to a coin flip once the juice is in. A 43.8 percent favorite-cover rate through four weeks is the low end of that range, not a new sport. Week 4 at 26.7 percent is the extreme. A 26.7 does not have to repeat for the first-month split to still be the split.

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors won't want any part of the Raiders here after the air was let out of their balloon in their first loss of the season last week against the Chiefs. The Patriots are back in bettors' good graces after staging an 'upset' win in Buffalo last Sunday. Add in the fact that we have the overplayed west coast team playing in an early game on the east coast angle at work and it's easy to understand why the Raiders are catching more than a field goal here (at the time of writing). Most bettors have forgotten that Las Vegas nearly pulled off an 'upset' victory in a pointspread cover here in Foxborough way back in Week 1 of last season. That was a much weaker Raiders team while the Patriots would ultimately represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Look for the Raiders to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Las Vegas.