Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-25-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 216.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
At 3:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (703) and the Golden State Warriors (704). Over six months after last year’s NBA Finals, it is safe to give away a trade secret: I was pounding the Over in the NBA Finals because the betting public and the oddsmakers were behind on appreciating the style of play that the Cavaliers were deciding to engage against the Warriors. While I expect more of the same for this early regular season game in this marquee television matchup, too much will have changed by the time the 2018 NBA Finals rolls around to ensure near automatic Overs if there is a third sequel between these two teams. The oddsmakers set the number rather high for Game One of the NBA Finals last year at 224.5 — and the Under hit with Cleveland shooting just 34.9% from the field in a Golden State blowout. The Total dropped to 222 and we pounded the Over in what turned out to be the Warriors’ 132-113 victory. The number jumped to 226.5 for Game Three and we still took the Over and got there with Golden State’s 118-113 victory. For Game Four, the number climbed to 227 yet we kept the Over going and won easily with the Cavs’ 137-116 victory. That finally prompted the oddsmakers to traverse the 230 Total threshold with the number placed at 231. We still took the Over and were rewarded with a 129-120 score with the Warriors closing out that series. With this Total for a regular season game with a reconfigured Cavs’ roster facing a Golden State team without Steph Curry who is injured, lets still pound the Over. The Warriors side of this equation is rudimentary. Golden State (26-7) saw their eleven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 96-81 loss to Denver despite being an 8-point favorite. The Warriors shot just 38.6% from the field which was their worst shooting effort in their last twenty-two games. Expect Golden State to come out firing on all cylinders. Not only has Golden State played 6 straight games Over the Total after an upset loss but they have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 15 points as a home favorite. While the team certainly misses Curry, they still have plenty of offensive firepower with Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson along with Draymond Green and Shaun Livingston who are both listed as probable after dealing with nagging injuries. The Warriors have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. |
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12-21-17 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 214 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). Chicago (10-20) has been on fire since getting power forward Nikolo Mirotic back on the court after missing the start of the season due to injuries sustained when he got into a fight with teammate Bobby Portis. The Bulls are undefeated since Mirotic returned to the lineup — and they have won seven straight games after their 112-94 win over Orlando last night as a 5.5-point favorite. Chicago is scoring 111.0 PPG over their last five games while making 47.7% of their shots as they clearly are buoyed with Mirotic’s presence down low. For the season, the Bulls are scoring 99.3 PPG on a 43.5% shooting percentage so Mirotic’s impact has been impressive. The Magic shot just 39.3% from the field against Chicago which was the Bulls’ best defensive effort in their last eighteen games — so they are likely to come back to Earth tonight when facing LeBron James and company at least on the defensive end of the court. As it is, Chicago has palyed 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulls have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing without rest and none of their players logged in more than 29 minutes last night in their easy victory. Chicago goes on the road for this contest where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. The Bulls have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics OVER 198 | Top | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (811) and the Boston Celtics (812). Boston (24-6) has won seven of their last nine games with their 124-118 win over Denver on Wednesday. The Celtics have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Over is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. Now this team stays at home where they are averaging 106.5 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Boston has also played 19 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And the Over is 25-10-1 in the Celtics’ last 36 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team is likely to get Al Horford back on the court as he is listed as probable with his knee injury. That helps them on offense — and the fact that Marcus Morris will still be out with his knee issue takes away one of their better post defenders. Boston has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the number set in the 190 to 199.5 point range. And in their last 5 games against Western Conference opponents, the game has finished Over the Total 4 times. |
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12-08-17 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 209.5 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (509) and the New Orleans Pelicans (510). New Orleans (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 123-114 win over Denver on Wednesday. The Pelicans have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. The team has been without Anthony Davis for their last three games as he is dealing with a groin injury. The Pelicans hoped he could play tonight but he has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest. His absence probably hurts New Orleans more on defense. Over their last five games with three without Davis, the Pelicans are allowing 117.8 PPG while seeing their opponents shoot 49.1% from the field as compared to the 110.2 PPG they are allowing this season along with an opponents’ field goal goal percentage of 46.2%. But New Orleans is still getting plenty of offensive production from DeMarcus Cousins, Jru Holiday and company. Over their last five games, the Pelicans are scoring 114.2 PPG while shooting 50% from the field which are both well above their 109.4 PPG and 48.3% shooting percentage for the season. Moving forward, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while this will be their third straight game at home in the Big Easy, the Pelicans have played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games on their home court Over the Total. And in their last 5 games against fellow Western Conference opponents, the Pelicans have played all 5 games Over the Total. |
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11-16-17 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228 | Top | 142-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Houston (11-4) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 1219-113 loss to Toronto despite being a 6.5-point favorite in that game. Chris Paul may take the court again for the Rockets which does not shape much into the rationale for this play (outside of helping this Houston team ensure they always have a potent point guard on the court since the original plan was to have one of these two stars on the court at all times this season). The Rockets shot just 41.8% from the field against the Raptors which was their worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Expect Houston to get back to their torrid shooting pace as they are scoring 119.2 PPG over their last five games while nailing 48% of their shots even with their poor performance on Tuesday during that span. But the Rockets’ style of play does allow the opposition to find easy shots on their own. Over their last five games, Houston is allowing 108.6 PPG while seeing these opponents make 48.5% of their shots. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, Houston has played a decisive 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. And in their last 24 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court, the Rockets have played 17 of these games Over the Total. |
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11-13-17 | Grizzlies v. Bucks UNDER 200 | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (705) and the Milwaukee Bucks (706). Memphis (7-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 111-96 loss at Houston on Saturday. The Grizzlies have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Despite moving on from Zach Randolph and defensive wizard Tony Allen in the offseason who were the face of their “Grit-n-Grind” identity, this Memphis team still is playing great defense. Opposing teams are shooting just 42.6% from the field this season. Now this team stays on the road for their fifth straight contest — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, the Under is 11-5-1 in the Grizzlies last 17 games when playing on the road. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 230.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (709) and the Golden State Warriors (710). Cleveland (64-35) made a huge withdrawal from the Bank of the Regression Gods on Friday by collecting on the plethora of missed open shots in the first three games of this series en route to their epic 137-116 victory over the Warriors. The Cavaliers broke a host of NBA Finals records including most points in the first quarter (49), most points by halftime (86) — and their 115 points after three quarters were more than they what they had scored in any of the first three games of this series. Cleveland made 59.1% of their uncontested shots in Game Four after making host 38.4% of their uncontested shots in the first three games of this series. And most of those shots were from behind the arc — the Cavaliers became the first team in NBA Finals history to take more 3-point shots than 2-point shots. That is the simplest way to dissect why Golden State has a 3-1 lead in this series. In Game Four, Cleveland players not named LeBron James or Kyrie Irving combined to make 14 of their 25 (56%) 3-pointers. It is that simple. Golden State (82-16) scored 116 points on their losing effort despite shooting just 44.8% from the field which was their second worst shooting performance in their last nine games. The Warriors also made just 11 of 39 shots from downtown (28.2%). Draymond Green’s 16 shots were more than both Stephen Curry (13) and Klay Thompson (11). And after averaging 33 PPG in transition in the first three games of this series, the Warriors managed only 7 points in transition. So while it would be foolish to expect the Cavs to come close to replicating their offensive performance from Game Four, it is very reasonable to expect Golden State to play much better on offense and surpass the 116 points they scored on Friday. In a series that is fast-paced with plenty of 3-point attempts and plenty of trips to the charity stripe, I still don’t think the oddsmakers adjustment to (finally) place the Total in the low-230s is high enough. After four games, Cleveland is 77 of 100 (77%) which translates to a 19.3-25 FT/FTA per game average. Golden State has made 82 of 100 free throws for a 20.6-25 FT/FTA per game average. These teams are combining to tack off 40 points from the Total just from the charity stripe. The 3-point numbers are even more fascinating (as I tweeted out this morning). Cleveland has made 55 of 149 shots from behind the arc for a 36.9% average. Golden State has made 57 of 148 shots from the 3-point line for a 38.6% mark. Both teams are averaging 13.8 and 14.3 made 3s per game on 37.3 and 37 shots per game from behind the arc. In this closeout game which should see both teams starters on the floor until the waning moments even if one team is dominating, expect another high-scoring affair. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 228.5 | Top | 116-137 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (707) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (708). Cleveland (63-35) finds themselves on the brink of elimination after blowing a 6-point lead late in the 4th quarter in their 118-113 loss on Wednesday as a 3-point underdog. With the second straight game where at least 231 combined points were scored, the Total has risen to the 228 range. With a number that high, it does not take much defense or slowing of the pace to produce an Under. But do not expect the Cavaliers to mail-in this effort. Cleveland will be playing for pride on their home court — and the opportunity to ruin the Warriors attempt to make history with the NBA’s first perfect 16-0 playoff mark should ensure a fast start for the underdogs. While this series can be dissected to death, my primary take is quite simple: Cleveland is not making baskets. On Wednesday, they shot only 44.4% from the field while making just 12 of their 44 shots from the 3-point line (27.3%). In Game One, the Caves made only 34.9% of their shots while making 11 of their 31 shots from the 3-point line for a 35.5% mark that turned out to be their best so far in these playoffs. In Game Two, Cleveland shot 45% from the field (their best mark in this series) but made only 8 of 29 of their 3-pointers (27.6%). Credit the Warriors’ defense — but keep in mind they are primarily focused on stopping LeBron James and Kyrie Irving who combined for 77 points on Wednesday. There is no question that Zaza Pachulia and the rest of the Warriors have completely neutered Tristan Thompson. But the Cavaliers’ supporting cast continue to miss open 3-point shots which has been the biggest difference in this series. In Game Three, they made only 3 of their 18 corner 3-point attempts while making just 7 of their 30 uncontested 3-point shots! Now with the pressure off this team facing a near-impossible 0-3 deficit to overcome, I do expect some of the 3-pointers to find the net rather than the rim. I won’t re-quote the analytics entering this series for the Cavaliers that I have referenced previously — but suffice to say that their Offensive Efficiency and effective field goal percentage was not just better than the Warriors this postseason but the best mark in the NBA Playoffs over the last forty years. That 44.4% mark in Game Three was their second worst offensive performance in their last twelve games — with the worst being Game One of the NBA Finals when they were playing off the rust of six days rest. This remains a team that shoots 48.6% on their home court while also making 39.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Cavs’ open jumpers — and 3-pointers — are bound to fall sooner rather than later. |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 217.5 | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (725) and the San Antonio Spurs (726). San Antonio (69-28) decided to play small-ball on Saturday in Game Three of this series which resulted in them being at their most competitive against the Warriors since losing Kawhi Leonard to his left ankle injury. However, the Spurs still lost that game by a 120-108 score as a 9-point underdog. Kyle Anderson was inserted into the starting lineup — and while he is not a prolific scorer per se, he did help San Antonio score points through his athleticism. San Antonio forced 21 turnovers which instigated 25 points — and they also scored 23 points on the fast break. With LaMarcus Aldridge still struggling on offense being very uncomfortable in the role of the team’s primary scorer, look for head coach Gregg Popovich to continue to play small ball with perhaps Aldridge seeing more time on the bench. Small-ball means faster play and more offense for the Spurs (and the Warriors) — and that helps our Over even if Aldridge and his disastrous play on defense is on the bench. As it is, San Antonio has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Spurs have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. San Antonio has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Spurs have played 5 straight games on their home court Over the Total. And while San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 218 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). Boston (61-35) was emotionally flat in the first half of the opening game of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics missed all eight of their open 3-point shots in the first-half en route to making only 12 of 38 shots from behind the arc (31.8%) in a 117-104 loss to the Cavaliers on Wednesday as a 3.5-point underdog. Isaiah Thomas scored only 17 points in that game. Expect this Boston team that makes 36.1% from the 3-point line on their home court to shoot better from behind the arc. The Celtics should also come out with much more energy tonight considering the urgency they will face in needing to win this game before traveling to Cleveland to play Games Three and Four. Boston can exploit the Cavaliers who were last in the regular season in transition defense. The Celtics have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And in their last 16 home games, the Over is 12-3-1 — and that includes being a perfect 7-0 in these playoffs. |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 208 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (509) and the Utah Jazz (510). Golden State (73-15) has now won seven straight games with their 115-104 win over the Jazz on Thursday as a 13.5-point favorite. The Warriors have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Golden State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in the first two games of this series, they have then played a decisive 42 of their last 60 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Golden State has won their last three games by at least 12 points — and they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight gams by double-digits. And while the Warriors have scored at least 106 points in seven straight games, they have then played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. Additionally, Golden State has played 25 of the last 35 road games Under the Total which includes twelve of their last seventeen games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 19-6-1. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 219 | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Washington Wizards (506). Boston (59-31) shot 51.1% from the field for the second straight game to rally from a late hole to force overtime and defeat the Wizards by a 129-119 score. Isaiah Thomas was unstoppable in the 4th quarter and overtime by scoring 29 points during that span and 53 points overall — and this Washington team that ranked a lowly 20th during the regular season in Defensive Efficiency. As it is, the Celtics are 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Boston has also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. And while the Celtics have covered the points spread in six straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. Furthermore, the Over is 9-4-1 in Boston’s last 14 games when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Celtics have played 5 of these games Over the Total. |
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05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 216 | Top | 96-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (733) and the San Antonio Spurs (734). Houston (60-28) nailed 22 shots from behind the arc on Monday en route to their 126-99 win over the Spurs to take a 1-0 lead in this series as a 6-point underdog. The Rockets have then seen the Over go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Houston will want to push the pace as fast as possible again tonight in Mike D’Antoni’s system as they hope to tire out this aging San Antonio team. The Rockets scored 112.8 PPG in the first-round of the playoffs while proudly being a beacon for the analytics community with 84% of their shots either being inside of 3-feet to the basket or from 3-point land. And Houston made only 28% of their 3-pointers against the Thunder — so the ceiling is high for this team if they can get closer to their 36% shooting mark from behind the arc. The Rockets have now won six of their last seven games — and they have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against familiar Southwest Division opponents. And in their last 8 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, Houston has played 7 of these games Over the Total. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 195 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Utah Jazz (508). Utah (54-33) has significantly upped its game on the defensive end of the court with the return of their rim protector Rudy Gobert. The Jazz held the Clippers to just 42% shooting on Tuesday en route to their 96-92 victory as a 3-point underdog to help them take a 3-2 lead in this series. That came on the heels of holding Los Angeles to just 44% shooting in the fourth game of this series. Gobert is one of the top candidates to win Defensive Player of the Year honors this season after holding opponents to just a 43.9% shooting clip at the rim with contested shots during the regular season. Now with the Jazz having the opportunity to close this series out on their home court, expect a lower scoring contest with the stakes so high. Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. But this can be a team that struggles to score points. They were 27th in the NBA during the regular season with a 100.7 PPG scoring average. Quin Snyder’s team also plays the slowest pace in the league. Furthermore, in the Jazz’s last 75 games as a favorite in the 3.5-9.5 point range, Utah has played 46 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 211 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (519) and the Atlanta Hawks (520). Washington (51-34) allowed the Hawks to shoot 49.4% from the field on Saturday in their 116-98 loss in Game Three of this series. That was the Wizards’ second worst defensive effort over their last seven contests. This team must increase their pressure on the Hawks’ point guard Dennis Schroder who has averaged 25 PPG in this series after registering 27 points in his team’s Game Three victory. Washington also shot just 41.6% from the field in their first road game in this series. Furthermore, the Under is supported by a historical angle that has been 71% effective since 1996. This is Washington’s just fifth game in the last fourteen days — and in games with the Total set at least at 200 involving a road team with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range playing no more than their fifth game in fourteen days now facing a team with a winning record, these games finished Under the Total in 46 of the last 65 situations where these conditions applied. |
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04-20-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 188 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (713) and the Memphis Grizzlies (714). San Antonio (63-21) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Monday with their 96-82 win over the Grizzlies as a 10.5-point favorite. The Spurs have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 194 | Top | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Toronto Raptors (526). Toronto (51-32) lost their ninth straight opening game to the postseason on Sunday with their 97-83 loss to the Bucks as a 7.5-point underdog. Scoring was a problem for this team as they shot just 36% from the field while managing only 32 points in the second half. This Milwaukee team is underrated on the defensive end of the court particularly with Khris Middleton healthy and contributing. The Raptors must get back into this series by playing harder on the defensive end of their end. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 28 points in the victory with the Raptors head coach Dwane Casey declaring that his team must get back in transition to limit the Greek superstar’s offensive fireworks. With the acquisitions of P.J. Tucker and Serge Ibaka at the trade deadline, this Toronto team is significantly better on defense. After allowing 106.0 points per 100 possessions before they both arrived, that number dropped to allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions which was 5th best in the league over that final span of games. The Raptors should comeback with a strong defensive effort. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Moving forward, the Raptors have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Toronto has played 7 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-17-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 189 | Top | 82-96 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (519) and the San Antonio Spurs (520). San Antonio (62-21) trailed by 13 points in the first quarter on Saturday — but this team stepped up their level of play to go on a 19-0 run to close out the 3rd quarter and begin the 4th quarter to pull away for an easy 111-82 victory. The Spurs have then played 16 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. With the Grizzlies missing their defensive spark plug in Tony Allen, the Spurs were able to shoot 53.2% from the floor. Allen remains out in this series with his leg injury so San Antonio should continue to have their way on offense. They have now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against Western Conference opponents. |
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04-10-17 | Pacers v. 76ers UNDER 211.5 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (701) and the Philadelphia 76ers (702). Indiana (40-40) shot 59.3% from the field — the best offensive effort for them this entire season — en route to their 127-112 win in Orlando on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Regression on the offensive end of the court for this team is very likely. The Pacers score only 102.9 PPG when on the road on 45.3% shooting. They have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field. Indiana has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. And in their last 17 games after a point spread win, the Pacers have played 12 of these games Under the Total. This team still has plenty to play for — they are one game behind the Bucks in the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt but only one game ahead of both the Bulls and the Heat who both own the tie-breaker against them if they do end up with the same record after Wednesday. So this Indiana team could still manage to be on the outside looking in with these playoffs. Moving forward, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. And in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Pacers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-04-17 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 141-118 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (701) and the Philadelphia 76ers (702). Brooklyn (18-59) has won two straight games with their 91-82 win over Atlanta on Sunday. The Nets have then seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Brooklyn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. This Nets team is playing better basketball as of late fueled by improved play on the defensive end of the court. The have the best statistical defense in the entire league over the last two weeks while allowing their last five opponents to shoot just 41.3% from the field. But this Brooklyn team is also making only 29% of their 3-point shots over that span. Moving forward, the Nets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Brooklyn has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. |
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03-31-17 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (521) and the Golden State Warriors (522). Houston (51-24) looks to bounce-back from their 117-101 loss in Portland last night as a 1-point favorite. The Rockets have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This is a depleted team with Ryan Anderson out with an ankle and Nene resting which more pressure on James Harden who will play but is nursing a wrist injury. As it is, the Under is 7-1-1 in Houston’s last 9 games on the road. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court, the Under is 5-0-1 for the Rockets. |
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03-29-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 208 | Top | 110-98 | Push | 0 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (515) and the San Antonio Spurs (516). Golden State (60-14) won their eighth straight game (all without Kevin Durant) with their 113-106 upset win at Houston as a 1.5-point underdog last night. The Warriors have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Golden State has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, the Warriors have played 7 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. And in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court, Golden State has played all 4 games Under the Total. |
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03-28-17 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (767) and the Atlanta Hawks (768). Phoenix (22-52) has dropped eight straight games with their 120-106 loss in Charlotte on Sunday as a 13-point underdog. The Suns are playing out the string out of the playoff hunt and decimated with injuries. Phoenix has lost both Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight to season-ending injuries — and now Leandro Barbosa is questionable with a hamstring injury tonight. The Suns shot 50.6% from the field in their defeat two days ago — but they look to be a prime suspect for a flat effort when considering this is their sixth straight game on the road. As it is, Phoenix has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Suns have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Phoenix has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-06-17 | Pacers v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 | Top | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (513) and the Charlotte Hornets (514). Indiana (32-30) has won three of their last five games with their 97-96 win at Atlanta yesterday as a 3-point underdog. The Pacers have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana has played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record, the Under is 9-2-1. |
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02-13-17 | Spurs v. Pacers UNDER 206 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (509) and the Indiana Pacers (510). San Antonio (41-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday in their 94-90 loss at New York against the Knicks. The Spurs allowed the Knicks to shoot 50% from the field which was their worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Expect a better defensive performance tonight. San Antonio has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. And while the Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 28 of their last 43 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. Additionally, San Antonio has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 43 road games as a favorite of 6 points or less, the Spurs have played 28 of these games Under the Total. |
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01-28-17 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 | Top | 98-144 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Golden State Warriors (508). Los Angeles (30-17) has lost three of their last four games with their 121-110 loss at Philadelphia on Tuesday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Clippers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Clippers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Moving forward, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Without the injured Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, this team is limited on offense. But expect head coach Doc Rivers to demand a better effort on defense tonight after seeing the 76ers shoot 50% from the field on Tuesday. |
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01-26-17 | Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 202 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:35 on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Utah Jazz (708). Los Angeles (16-33) has lost seven of their last eight games with their 105-98 loss in Portland last night as an 8-point underdog. The Lakers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Lakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Over their last two contests, the absence of D’Angelo Russell is impacting this team on the offensive end of the court as they are shooting only 38.9% from the field and a mere 28% from behind the arc. Additionally, in the last 14 games in the second-half of the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range, the Lakers have played 12 of these games Under the Total. |
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01-22-17 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 206 | Top | 73-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (833) and the Dallas Mavericks (834). Los Angeles (16-31) has lost five straight games after their 108-96 win over Indiana on Friday as a 3.5-point underdog. The Lakers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a points spread victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Now the Lakers go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. |
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12-23-16 | Thunder v. Celtics UNDER 213 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (709) and the Boston Celtics (710). Oklahoma City (17-12) has won two of their last three games with their 121-110 win at New Orleans on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite. The Thunder have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. OKC will be playing this game once again without Victor Olidapo who is out indefinitely with a wrist injury. The Thunder stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. OKC has also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. |
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12-20-16 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 214.5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Houston Rockets (516). San Antonio (22-5) has won four straight games with their 113-100 win over New Orleans on Sunday. The Spurs now go on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, not only has San Antonio has played 26 of their last 39 road games as the favorite of 6 points or less, they have played eleven of their last thirteen road games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, the Spurs have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow Southwest Division opponents. And while the Rockets score 113.1 PPG, San Antonio has played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 103 PPG. |
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12-16-16 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 203.5 | Top | 95-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). Milwaukee (12-12) looks to pull the sweep over the Bulls tonight in their home-and-home series after they defeated them by a 108-97 score last night in a pick ‘em game. The Bucks have then played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Milwaukee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. This team will likely be without Michael Beasley again tonight who is dealing with a foot injury. Backup Mirza Teletovic stepped up in his absence last night by scoring 13 points on 50% shooting which included three 3-pointers. Do not hold your breath for a repeat performance on the road. The Bucks have played 13 of their last 19 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against Central Division opponents. |
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11-30-16 | Pistons v. Celtics UNDER 201.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Detroit (9-10) has won three of their last four games after their 112-89 win at Charlotte last night. The Pistons won that game despite their defensive wizard Andre Drummond being ejected from that game in the second quarter. Drummond was not suspended for tonight’s contest so Detroit will have his shot-blocking presence down low. The Pistons have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Detroit has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Moving forward, the Pistons look to avenge a 94-92 loss at home to the Celtics back on November 19th. Detroit has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss at home. The Pistons have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. |
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11-18-16 | Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 204 | Top | 81-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (505) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (506). Cleveland (9-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 103-93 loss at Indiana in a game where LeBron James took the night off. Expect the return of The King to inspire his teammates to play harder on the defensive end of the court. The Under is then 4-1-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 6 games after a straight-up loss. The Under is also 8-3-1 in Cleveland’s last 12 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, while the Cavs are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games, they have then played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. |
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11-11-16 | Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 213.5 | Top | 87-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (709) and the Boston Celtics (710). New York (3-4) held their first opponent to under 100 points in their 110-96 win over Brooklyn on Wednesday as an 8-point favorite. Defense is certainly an area of emphasis for Phil Jackson who has installed Kurt Rambis in charge of the defense. For better or worse, at least this sends the message to the team that effort on that end of the floor is to be valued. The Knicks have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New York has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Furthermore, the Knicks have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 21 games after scoring at least 100 points, New York has played 16 of these games Under the Total. Moving forward, the Knicks have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. |
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10-26-16 | Kings v. Suns UNDER 212.5 | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (717) and the Phoenix Suns (718). Sacramento (0-0) closed out last season playing 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when on the road. The Kings have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. Additionally, Sacramento has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against their fellow Pacific Division foes. |