06-09-18 |
Yankees -150 v. Mets |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (929) versus the New York Mets (930) while listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: The Yankees (41-18) have won three straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 4-1 win over the Mets in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Bronx Bombers have won 13 of their last 16 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Yankees have also won 16 of their last 21 games on the road — and this includes them winning six of their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 9 games in Interleague play, New York has won 8 of these games. They give the ball to German who is 0-4 with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics are for the 25-year hard-throwing right-hander are encouraging as both his SIERA and xFIP project that he should be allowing at least one run less per game given those respective 4.03 and 4.16 marks. He should fare well against this ice-cold Mets team that is scoring only 1.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .139 batting average, .223 On-Base Percentage and .439 OPS over that span. The Mets are also scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .215 batting average with a .289 On-Base Percentage and .618 OPS. The Mets have lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 — and they have lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have lost seven straight games — and they have also lost 18 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Matz who is 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eleven starts. He sees his ERA jump to a 4.75 mark in his six starts at home — and the left-hander had a 10.38 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP at home last year. The Mets have lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team that has won 20 of their last 28 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Matz consistently struggles at home in Citi Field — and German is undervalued. The Yankees are a much better team than the Mets and the money-line has stabilized this afternoon at my maximum -150 price range in most locations which makes this a strong play (even if you have to invest a little more). 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Saturday Fox-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Yankees (929) versus the New York Mets (930) while listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rangers |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (973) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (974) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Doug Fister. THE SITUATION: Houston (39-25) won the opening game of this series yesterday with their 5-2 victory over the Rangers.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Houston should build off the momentum from that win tonight as they have won a decisive 38 of their last 54 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also won 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Houston has also won 45 of their last 64 road games when priced as at least a -125 favorite. They give the ball to Verlander who is 7-2 with a 1.24 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The right-hander has been even better on the road where he owns a minuscule 0.44 ERA in six starts. The Astros have won 5 of their last 6 road games with Verlander on the hill. He faces a Texas team (27-38) that has lost 19 of their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Rangers are scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .215 batting average along with a .308 On-Base Percentage and .698 OPS over that span. Texas has lost 31 of their last 46 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Rangers have won two of their last three games, they have lost 15 of their last 21 games after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, Texas has lost 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have lost 6 straight home games as an underdog priced at least at +175. They counter with Fister who is 1-6 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eleven starts this year. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.39 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP and .312 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Rangers have lost their last 5 games with Fister pitching on four days of rest. He is likely in more trouble tonight against this Astros team that has won 21 of their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Lastly, Texas falls into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. The Rangers have a slugging percentage of .389 this season — and American League home underdogs with a slugging percentage no better than .400 facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 0.80 or lower over his last three starts (Verlander: 0.72 WHIP over his last three starts) have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 70 of the last 108 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: Verlander has raised his game to another level since being traded to Houston from Detroit. He should outduel Fister who is getting crushed in Globe Life Park in Arlington. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (973) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Texas Rangers (974) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Doug Fister. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-18 |
Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Jalen Beeks and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Boston (43-19) has won four straight games — as well as seven of their last nine games — with their 7-1 victory over the Tigers in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Boston has on 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games are allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Red Sox have won a decisive 22 of their last 30 games at home in Fenway Park. They are pounding the ball at home by averaging 6.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .291 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849. They called up rookie Jalen Beeks to make his major league debut in this game. The left-hander has been outstanding in Triple-A where he enjoyed a 2.56 ERA with 80 strikeouts in just 56 2/3 innings of work. He has a great chance for a memorable debut against this slumping Tigers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests along with a .220 batting average, .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .624 per that span. Detroit (29-34) has lost 11 of their last 15 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Tigers have lost 22 of their last 32 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Detroit has also lost 39 of their last 54 games on the road including dropping six straight to teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Boyd who is 3-4 with a 3.23 ERA and a WHIP of 1.08 in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that those numbers are due for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.82 and 5.09 moving forward. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he owns a 4.23 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in five starts. The Tigers have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with Boyd on the hill. He faces a Red Sox team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, Detroit falls into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 62% effective over the last five seasons. Road underdogs with a batting average of .200 or lower over the last three games (Detroit: .191 batting average last three games) now facing a team with a slugging percentage over .440 in their last twenty games (Boston: .501 slugging percentage over their last 20 games) have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -160 to -115 price range) in 58 of the last 93 situations where these conditions applied.
FINAL TAKE: With Boston a pricy money-line favorite in the -190 range (and well above my -150 maximum threshold), the value is in taking the Red Sox minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Thursday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Boston Red Sox (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Jalen Beeks and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-30) has won four straight games with their 6-1 win over Philadelphia yesterday. Arizona (31-27) has won five of their last six games with their 6-1 win in Miami yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played their last three games Under the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 7.5 range. And in their last 11 opening games to a new series, the Over is 7-2-2. They give the ball to Holland who is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 5.75 ERA in four starts this season. Holland has seen 4 of his last 5 starts against NL West teams finish Over the Total. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .815 OPS over that span. Arizona has played 6 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also seen the Over go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And while the Diamondbacks have not allowed more than two runs in their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Now Arizona goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Godley who is 5-4 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.81 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Godley on the mound. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .341 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams hitting the ball well right now, expect a high scoring game featuring two vulnerable starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-18 |
Pirates v. Cardinals -126 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-126 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: St Louis (29-24) has won four of their last six games with their 10-8 victory over the Pirates yesterday after rallying from an 8-5 deficit in the 9th inning to pullout that victory. Pittsburgh (29-26) has lost five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis allowed four runs in the 8th inning of that game to blow their 5-4 lead before they embarked on their 9th inning comeback. The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 8 games after their bullpen blew a save in their last game — and they have also won 4 of their last 6 games after their bullpen allowed at least four runs in their last game. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 3 of their last 4 games after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. The Cardinals host Game Two tonight where they have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also won 30 of their last 42 second games to a new series. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 6-0 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 1.53 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and .214 opponent’s batting average in four starts. St. Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games with Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less — and they have lost 12 of their last 17 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh has lost 22 of their last 30 road games after losing three of their last four contests — and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Taillon who is 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 5.47 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and .290 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight road games with Taillon on the hill. He faces a Cardinals team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams who play better much better at home which gives the Cardinals the edge tonight. Mikolas should outpitch Taillon. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (906) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (905) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-18 |
Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (29-26) snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with their 2-1 win over the Cubs. St. Louis (29-24) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-2 loss in Milwaukee yesterday. The Cardinals return home to host this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have lost five of their last seven games — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 road games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. And in their last 30 road games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, they have played 21 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Williams who is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.14 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .170 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Pirates have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Williams on the mound. He faces a Cardinals teams that are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average, .285 On-Base Percentage and .661 OPS over that span. The Under is 5-1-1 in St. Louis’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Cardinals have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis (29-24) has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games are a loss. The Cardinals have also seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. St. Louis has also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty who is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in five starts this season. Flaherty will be making just his second start at home this year after allowing only one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of work against the Phillies earlier this season. In three career starts at home, the right-hander has a 0.89 WHIP and .080 opponent’s batting average. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a cold-hitting Pirates team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .237 batting average, .266 On-Base Percentage and .656 OPS over that span. The Under is 4-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 — and the Under is 33-16-5 in their last 54 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both starting pitchers should dominate against two lineups that are struggling to score points. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-18 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (32-22) won the third game of this series on Tuesday with a 7-6 victory over the Mets. The series concludes with a fourth game tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 fourth games to a series. They give the ball to Teheran who is 4-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home in the hitter-friendly Sun Trust Park where he has a 5.54 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .178 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Teheran pitching on grass. Teheran faces a New York team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .290 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .810 over that span. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (26-26) saw their bullpen surrender all six runs yesterday — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least five runs. Additionally, the Mets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Vargas who is 1-3 with a 10.62 ERA and a 2.16 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has been a disaster in three road starts where he has a 15.19 ERA with a 2.63 WHIP and .404 opponent’s batting average. Vargas had an 18-11 record with a 4.16 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last year with the Royals — but those numbers were propped up very fortunate BABIP and Left-On-Base rates in the first-half of the season. His ugly 6.38 ERA over the second-half of the season took place after those metrics finally regressed back to the mean. Vargas faces an Atlanta team that scores 6.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .286 batting average, .360 On-Base Percentage and an .818 On-Base Percentage. The Braves also score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 21-8-2 in their last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. Lastly, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games with Vargas making the start.
FINAL TAKE: Vargas has been a mess for almost an entire calendar year while Teheran typically sees home/road splits that favor his being away from the new Sun Trust Park. Expect the hitters to enjoy the advantage for both teams tonight. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-18 |
Twins -133 v. Royals |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-133 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (22-27) snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with an 8-5 win in Kansas City in the opening game of this series. The Royals (18-36) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games against fellow AL Central opponents. The Twins have also won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% at home. They give the ball to Gibson who is 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.61 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and .129 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 5.76 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and .320 opponent’s batting average when at home. Minnesota has won a decisive 19 of their last 22 road games with Gibson facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Kansas City team that has lost 23 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Royals have also lost 15 of their last 17 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a loss. The Royals have also lost 29 of their last 27 games at home. And in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, Kansas City has lost 9 of these contests. They counter with Duffy who is 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander has been even worse at home where he has been saddled with a 6.98 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP and .304 opponent’s batting average in four starts. The Royals have lost 5 straight games at home with Duffy on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Gibson was significantly better on the road last year as well. Duffy has lost the effective he demonstrated last season. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-18 |
Diamondbacks v. A's -127 |
Top |
7-1 |
Loss |
-127 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (980) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Oakland (26-24) has won five of their last seven games with their 4-3 win over the Mariners yesterday. Arizona (25-24) is reeling having lost seven straight games as well as thirteen of their last fourteen contests with their 9-2 loss in Milwaukee on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 10 of their last 14 games against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. The A’s have also won 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range with eight of those wins being at home. They give the ball to Manaea who is 5-4 with a 2.71 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in ten starts so far in what appears to be his breakout season. The left-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 1.78 ERA with a 0.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .137 in four starts. Oakland has won 5 of their last 7 home games with Manaea facing a team with a winning record. He should fare very well against this slumping Arizona team that has is scoring only 1.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .160 batting average, .228 On-Base Percentage and .505 Slugging Percentage over that span. The Diamondbacks have lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Arizona has lost 13 of their last 16 games after a loss. And while they have not scored more than two runs in four straight games, they have then lost 9 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than two runs in at least two straight games. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have lost 7 straight games on the road — and they have also lost 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Corbin who is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in ten starts this season. But while the lefty has a 2.03 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP and .144 opponent’s batting average in six home starts, those numbers rise to a 3.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of their last 11 road games with Corbin facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams moving in opposite directions with the A’s having an advantage with Manaea pitching at home. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (980) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-18 |
Royals v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 1:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-33) won the second game of this series last night by a 5-1 score. This three-game series concludes this afternoon in this getaway game in St. Louis (26-20).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Junes who is 5-3 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average at home. Junis also is performing better in day games where he has a 2.75 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in three starts which all finished Under the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Junis pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Cardinals team that has seen the Under go 11-4-3 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. St. Louis has seen the Under go 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after a loss — and the Under is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 9-3-2 in the Cardinals’ last 14 home games. They counter with Wacha who is 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season — and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.38 ERA in six starts as compared to his 4.60 ERA in three starts on the road. Last year, Wacha enjoyed a 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.97 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Wacha facing a team with a losing record. Wacha was also more effective during day games last year where he sported a 3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.64 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .275 opponent’s batting average in night games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both starting pitchers to see success in this afternoon midweek contest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-18 |
Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 7 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-15) has won four of their last five games after their 5-0 win over Baltimore on Sunday. Tampa Bay (22-23) hosts this series after seeing their six-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 5-2 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Sale who is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in ten starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit more effective on the road where he has a 0.83 WHIP and a .182 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.09 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average at home. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sale on the hill. He should pitch better against this Tampa Bay team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .253 batting average, .322 On-Base Percentage and .694 OPS. Furthermore, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Ray’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a loss. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Faria who is 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander is struggling on the road with an 8.14 ERA and 1.56 WHIP but he has been much better at home where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in four starts. The Under is 5-0-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 home games with Faria facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Boston team that sees their team batting average drop to a .253 mark with a .307 On-Base Percentage and .725 OPS when on the road. The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Under is 5-1-1.
FINAL TAKE: Faria usually pitches much better at home — this could end up being a pitching duel with Sale who is a bit more effective away from Fenway Park and it’s Green Monster. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-18 |
Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (22-22) won the second game of this series yesterday with their 5-4 victory over the Astros. The series concludes tonight in Houston for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston (29-18) has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total played at night. They give then ball to McCullers who is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 4.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with McCullers facing a team with a losing record. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Under go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland stranded three baserunners last night — and they have then played 16 of their last 26 games Under the Total after stranded three or fewer runners in their last game. The Indians have also played a decisive 47 of their last 38 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Carrasco who is 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been very tough on the road where he sports a 2.78 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Indians’ last 16 road games with Carrasco on the mound. He faces an Astros team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 19-7-1 in Houston’s last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: Expect a pitcher’s duel between Carrasco and McCullers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-18 |
Tigers v. Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (978) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (977) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Mike Fiers. THE SITUATION: Seattle (25-19) won the second game of this series last night with their 5-4 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Mariners snapped a two-game losing streak with that win last night — and they have then won 10 of their last 13 games after dropping two of their last three games. Seattle’s bullpen did not allow an earned run last night — and they have then won 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing an earned run in their last contest. Additionally, the Mariners have won 7 of the last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have won 17 of their last 26 games played at night. They give the ball to Paxton who is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. Over his last three starts, the left-hander has a 1.23 ERA with a 0.68 WHIP with a 27:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 innings of work. Paxton also thrives at night where he has a 2.25 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in five starts this year. Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games at night with Paxton on the mound. He should fare well against this Tigers team that has lost 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Detroit (20-24) has not hit a home run in three straight games — and they have lost 27 of their last 37 games after failing to hit a home run in at least two straight games. The Tigers have also lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have lost 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Fires who is 4-2 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in seven starts so far with the Tigers. His SIERA and xFIP suggest he is overvalued with those sabermetrics predicting a 4.47 and 4.74 ERA respectively moving forward. Furthermore, Fires’ teams have lost 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Mariners team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Tigers have a team batting average of .259, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle that has been 60% effective over the last five seasons. Road teams with a team batting average no better than .260 facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.60 or lower on a Saturday have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 90 of the last 151 situations where these conditions applied.
CONCLUSION: With Seattle a big money-line favorite priced in the -260 range, the better value play is to reduce the investment price by laying the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month is with the Seattle Mariners (978) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (977) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Mike Fiers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-18 |
Brewers +1.5 v. Twins |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (930) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Brent Suter. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (26-18) has won five of their last seven games with their 8-2 win in Arizona yesterday. Minnesota (18-25) has lost three of their last four contests with their 7-05 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Milwaukee has stranded three and five baserunners over their last two games — and they have then won 12 of their last 17 games after stranding less than five runners in two straight games. The Brewers have also won 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Suter who is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in seven starts this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 5.82 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .308 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where Suter had a 2.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP on the road as compared to his 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Brewers have also won 5 of their last 6 games with Suter facing a team that scored at least five runs in their last game. Minnesota (18-25) has lost 5 straight games after an off day. They stay at home where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Gibson who is 1-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in eight starts this season. But the right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.27 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and .322 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 2.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .129 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Last year, Gibson had a 5.72 ERA along with a 1.66 WHIP and .313 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 4.34 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Twins have lost 5 of their last 7 home games with Gibson facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Brewers team that has won 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: While Gibson has improved going back to his last eight starts last season, he has consistently not been as good when at home. The Brewers can easily win this game but with them priced below the -150 threshold when getting the valuable +1.5 runs, the Run-Line play offers more value. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Milwaukee Brewers (929) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (930) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Brent Suter. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-18 |
Rockies +130 v. Giants |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
130 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (959) versus the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Chad Bettis and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Colorado (23-20) takes the field again after an off-day following their 4-0 shutout loss in San Diego to the Padres on Tuesday. San Francisco (22-22) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 6-3 loss to Cincinnati.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. San Francisco has also lost 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Samardzija who is 1-2 with an 8.31 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP in five starts this season after starting the year on the disabled list with a pectoral injury. The right-hander has been pummeled at home in AT&T Park where he has been saddled with an 8.31 ERA along with a 2.19 WHIP and .342 opponent’s batting average. He allowed a career-high 1.3 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched last year — and he has already surrendered five homers in the 23 21/3 innings he has thrown this year for a rough 1.93 Home Runs per 9 innings rate. He has also issued 15 walks for a terrible 13.6% wake rate after posting a career-low 3.8% walk rate last season. The Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Samardzija facing a team with a winning record — and they have also lost 9 of their last 13 home games with Samardzija facing a team with a winning record. The Giants have also lost 4 of the last 5 games with Samardzija facing the Rockies. He will likely struggle again against this Rockies team that has won 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. The Rockies have also won 6 of their last 7 games on the road to bolster their 16-9 mark away from Coors Field this season. And while they only stranded three runners on Tuesday against the Padres, they have then won 14 of their last 15 games after not leaving more than three runners on base in their last game. They counter with Bettis who is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has been very good when away from Coors as he has a 1.35 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and .197 opponent’s batting average in five road starts. Colorado has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Bettis on the bump. Lastly, the Rockies are live dogs tonight who have won 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog priced at +100 or higher.
CONCLUSION: Bettis should outpitch the struggling Samardzija for this Rockies team that plays much better on the road. 25* MLB Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (959) versus the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Chad Bettis and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-18 |
A's v. Red Sox OVER 8 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Oakland (21-21) won the second game of this series last night with their 5-3 victory in Boston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Oakland has also played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total as a big underdog priced in the +175 to +200 price range. They send out Cahill who is coming off the 10-day disabled list exactly ten days after going on the DL — and his teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when he was pitching with at least ten days between starts. The right-hander has a 1-1 record with a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts — but he has a 4.91 ERA in two starts on the road while not yet allowing an earned run in his two starts at home. Last year, Cahill had an awful 7.07 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and .320 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road in his stints with Kansas City and San Diego. The Over is 3-0-1 in Cahill’s last 4 road starts. He faces a strong hitting team in Fenway Park as Boston is scoring 6.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .287 batting average along with a .804 OPS. The Over is 9-3-1 in the Red Sox’s last 13 home games against teams against a right-handed starting pitcher. Boston (28-14) has played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Sale who is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster looming in left-field with his 1.06 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 0.83 WHIP and .182 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Sale had a 2.17 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average on the road with those numbers all rising to a 3.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average at home. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Sale on the hill. Lastly, the Over is 26-8-2 in the A’s last 36 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
CONCLUSION: The Red Sox should pound Cahill while Sale should give up a few runs on his end of things. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-18 |
Astros v. Angels +1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Angels (914) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (913) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Houston (26-16) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 6-1 win over the Rangers yesterday. Los Angeles (24-16) enters this series coming off a 2-1 win over the Twins.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Astros have not allowed more than three runs in seven straight games — but they have then lost 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing at least four runs in six straight games. Houston has also lost 5 of their last 8 games when a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to McCullers who is 5-1 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in eight starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where McCullers had a 5.14 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 3.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average at home. Houston has lost 4 straight opening games to a new series with McCullers on the mound. McCullers last pitched on May 8th — and the Astros have lost 18 of their last 29 games when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. The Angels have won 7 of their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 22 of their last 29 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They counter with Heaney who is 1-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts this year. The left-hander’s sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.69 and 3.34 moving forward. He should keep the Angels close at home where they have won 5 of their last 7 games. Lastly, because Heaney is averaging 5.8 strikeouts per start, Los Angeles is supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 66% effective since 1997. The Angels have a .260 team batting average — and American League teams with a batting average no better than .260 using a starting pitcher who strikes out at least five batters per start have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 364 of the last 556 situations where these conditions applied.
CONCLUSION: McCullers remains overvalued when pitching away from Minute Maid Park. With the Run-Line listed in the -150 range for the Angels as a dog, it is worth the price. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Angels (914) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (913) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-18 |
Nationals v. Diamondbacks -119 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Jeremy Hellickson. THE SITUATION: Washington (23-18) has won the first three games of this series — as well as twelve of their last fourteen games — with their 3-1 victory over the Diamondbacks. Arizona has dropped four in a row as well as their four encounters with the Nationals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona has only scored three runs in this series which is a big reason all three games in this series have finished Under the Total — but the Diamondbacks have then won 6 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Unders. The silver lining for this team is that their bullpen has not allowed an earned run in the last two games — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when their bullpen is unscathed for at least two days. And while the Nationals are now 13-8 on the road this year, Arizona has still won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They turn to Godley who is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has been much better at home where he sees his ERA drop to a 1.96 mark with a 1.09 WHIP. Last year, Godley had a 1.03 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 1.25 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Godley on the hill. Arizona has also won 16 of their last 20 home games when playing with double-revenge — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games against opponents who have beaten them at least four times in a row. Washington has lost 12 of their last 18 games after allowing no more than one run in at least two straight games. And while the Nats have not allowed more than two runs in five straight games, they have then lost 9 of their last 12 game safer allowing three runs or less in five straight games. This is Washington’s seventh game in a row on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after playing at least five in a row on the road. They counter with Hellickson who is 1-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in two straight starts — but his sabermetrics suggests that he should be performing closer to ERA levels of 3.80 and 3.60 according to his SIERA and xFIP. He had a 5.43 ERA last year in his stints with the Phillies and the Orioles. Furthermore, Hellickson’s teams have lost 14 of their last 20 games after allowing one or less earned run in two straight starts.
CONCLUSION: Although Washington is streaking, momentum only lasts as long as the next starting pitcher. The Diamondbacks are a good team that wants to avoid being swept after losing their first series of the year with yesterday’s loss. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Jeremy Hellickson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-18 |
Giants v. Pirates -129 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) versus the San Francisco Giants (905) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Jeff Samardzija. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (22-16) has now won four games in a row with their 11-2 last night in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE PITTSBURGH WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Pirates have now won 6 straight games at home — and they have won 10 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Kuhl tonight who is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in seven starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in four road starts. Pittsburgh has won 8 of their last 10 home games with Kuhl on the hill. He should fare well against this Giants team that has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco (19-20) has lost 5 straight games against teams with a winning record They also have lost 7 of their last 9 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Samardzija who is 1-2 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in four starts this season after starting the year on the disabled list with a pectoral injury. Last year, the right-hander had a 4.81 ERA on the road which was much higher than his 3.97 ERA when at home. He allowed a career-high 1.3 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched last year — and he has already surrendered three homers in the 17 2/3 innings he has thrown this year. He has also issued 13 walks after posting a career-high 3.8% walk rate last season. The Giants have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Samardzija facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, the Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: Pittsburgh is playing better baseball right now and has the starting pitcher edge tonight. 25* MLB National League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) versus the San Francisco Giants (905) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-18 |
Mets v. Phillies -149 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-149 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (952) versus the New York Mets (952) while listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Steven Matzo. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (22-15) comes off a 6-3 win over the Giants yesterday to complete that four-game sweep where they scored 32 runs. New York (18-17) has lost two straight as well as eight of their last nine games after their 2-1 loss in Cincinnati on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia has won 13 of their last 17 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Phillies have also won 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Arrieta who is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has been more effective in his new home in Philly as he has a 1.50 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP and .133 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.96 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in three starts on the road.
|
05-08-18 |
Astros v. A's +1.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Oakland (18-17) looks to bounce-back from their 16-2 loss to the Astros in the opening game of this series yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OAKLAND PLUS THE 1.5 RUN-LINE: The A’s have bounced-back to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. Oakland has also won 5 of their last 6 games last home — and they have won 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They give the ball to Manaea who has been outstanding this season with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP behind a 4-3 record in seven starts this season. The left-hander has a no-hitter this year while seemingly fully recovered from an illness last summer that cost him 20 pounds in what resulted in a disappointing sophomore season. Manaea has been very tough at home where he has a 0.73 ERA and 0.41 WHIP in three starts — and his disparate home/road splits are consistent from last year where he had a 4.19 ERA and .265 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 4.50 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Manaea facing a team with a winning record. Houston (22-15) has lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Astros have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with McCullers who is 4-1 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven starts this year. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in four starts. McCullers was not quite as good on the road last year either as he had a 5.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average on the road versus his 3.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average when at home. Lastly, Houston has lost 5 of their last 7 games with McCullers pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. Lastly, because Manaea is averaging 6.0 strikeouts per start, the A’s are supported by a historical Run-Line angle that has been 67% effective since 1997. Oakland has a .251 batting average this season — and American League teams not hitting better than .260 for the season using a starting pitcher who is striking out at least 5.0 batters per start have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 317 of the last 469 situations where these conditions applied.
CONCLUSION: With the A’s a money-line underdog in the +130 range which places their +1.5 Run-Line price in the -130 range, I recommend investing in the +1.5 Run-Line for insurance in this contest. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Oakland A’s (920) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (919) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-18 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -135 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Ross Stripling. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-15) has lost five of the last six games after a 4-2 loss in San Francisco yesterday. They travel to Arizona (19-8) to face a Diamondbacks team that had won three straight before losing in Washington yesterday by a 3-1 score.
THE REASONS TO TAKE ARIZONA WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Diamondbacks have bounced-back to win 7 straight games after a loss. Arizona returns home where they have won 7 of their last 9 games. They give the ball to Greinke who is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander has been much better at home in two starts so far this year where he has a 1.42 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and .178 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .324 opponent’s batting average in three road starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year as he had a 2.87 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average at home versus a 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Diamondbacks have won 22 of their last 30 home games with Greinke on the mound. Los Angeles (12-15) has lost 27 of their last 40 games after a loss. They also have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They turn to Ross Stripling to make his first start of the season after pitching 14 1/3 innings out of the pen. Last year, Stripling had a 5.56 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 2.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .230 opponent’s batting average at home. The Dodgers have lost 5 of their last 7 games when Stripling is making a spot start. LA will likely turn to their bullpen early tonight — and that group has an ERA of 7.59 along with a 1.83 WHIP over the last seven days.
CONCLUSION: Greinke offers us nice value at home against a slumping Dodgers team using a pitcher more comfortable coming out of the bullpen. 25* MLB National League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Ross Stripling. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-18 |
Yankees -106 v. Angels |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: New York (17-9) has won eight straight games after their 11-1 win over the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (16-11) has now dropped three straight games.
THE REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should build off their momentum as they have won 6 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees are also getting great production from their bullpen that has a 1.56 ERA over their last five games — and NY has won 36 of their last 50 games when their bullpen as an ERA of 2.00 or better in their last five games. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in four starts this season. The left-hander makes his second start on the road where he had a 3.18 ERA last year as compared to his 4.20 ERA when at home. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 19 games with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. New York is 6-4 on the road — and the Angels have lost 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Skaggs has an 8.00 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and .325 opponent’s batting average in two starts at home as compared to his outstanding 0.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .179 WHIP in three starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where the left-hander had a 4.78 ERA and .282 opponent’s batting average at home versus his 4.32 ERA and .264 opponent’s batting average when on the road. LA has lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Skaggs facing a team with a winning record.
CONCLUSION: The Yankees have the momentum and the edge at starting pitcher making them a great value at this price tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night Baseball ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-18 |
Nationals v. Giants UNDER 7 |
Top |
15-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Washington (10-14) has lost four straight games after their 4-3 loss in Game Two of this series against the Giants. The Nationals are swinging cold bats right now as they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .211 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and a .589 OPS over that span. These cold bats have helped Washington play four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Nationals have not committed an error in the field in five straight games — and they have then played 39 of their last 63 games Under the Total after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Washington has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing as a road favorite with double-revenge on their minds. They send out Scherzer who is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he enjoyed a 1.82 ERA along with a 0.81 WHIP and .156 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average when at home. Scherzer was also better in day games where he sported a 1.90 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and .140 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average at night. Washington has seen the Under go a decisive 31-14-6 in their last 51 games on the road. The Nationals have also seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with Scherzer on the mound on the road. He should fare well against this San Fran team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is also 15-5-1 in the Giants’ last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (11-12) has won three straight games while hammering home runs in seven straight contests — but they will be facing a starting pitcher in Max Scherzer who has only allowed two homers this season. Despite this home runs, the Giants are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games which is only a slight tick above the 3.2 Runs-Per-Game rate for the season. They are also hitting only .235 with a .292 On-Base Percentage and a .716 OPS over these last seven contests. The Under is 35-16-4 in their last 55 games after a win — and they have also played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. San Fran has also only played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Jeff Samardzija who did not allow an earned run in 5 innings of work in his first start of the season on Friday on Los Angeles against the Angels. The right-hander started the season on the Disabled List with a pectoral injury but looked very good in that start. Last season, Samardzija was more effective at home where he owned a 3.97 ERA and .251 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.81 ERA and .258 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Samardzija struggled with giving up too many home runs last year — particularly in hitter’s parks like Colorado and Arizona. But he also struck out batters 24.2% of the time while only issuing walks in a career-low 3.8% of his batters faced. Those peripherals help explain why both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.63 and 3.60 off this 2017 numbers. Samardzija was also better during day games where hewed a 1.08 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average at night. The Giants have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching as an underdog. San Fran has also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching with four days of rest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-17 |
Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Los Angeles (114-62) evened this series at 3-3 last night with their 3-1 victory over the Astros to force a climactic Game Seven tonight. I have been line watching again this morning with the Dodgers opening as a money-line favorite in the -145 range with that then being bet up to the -155 to -160 range as of this writing. I see Los Angeles as a slight favorite in this game given home field advantage — but when taking the Astros plus the +1.5 Run-Line is around the same price as taking the Dodgers straight-up, then this becomes an easy Run-Line play for me with this Houston team that has a good chance of winning this game outright. Manager Dave Roberts really has little choice than give the ball to Darkish to start this game despite his getting shelled in Game Three of this series where he allowed four runs and six hits in just 1 2/3 innings of work. Darvish is at the epicenter of Slick Ball Gate with him being very dependent on a slider that was not dropping as much as he usually coaxes out of the baseball when getting hammered last Friday night. Even if the Slick Ball issues are rationalizations for poor pitching performances (I think it is real because I give credence to testimony from the likes of Justin Verlander and others), the fact is that the feel of the ball is now in Darvish’s head which will likely have a negative impact on his efforts tonight. As it is, Darkish has not been as effective at home as on the road this year. For the regular season between the Dodgers and Rangers, the right-hander has a 10-12 record with a 3.86 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. At home during the regular season, Darkish had a 5.25 ERA with a .246 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.44 ERA and .206 opponent’s batting average on the road. With the Dodgers during the regular season, Darkish had a 4.84 ERA in four starts with a 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in five starts. This will be Darvish’s first start at home for the Dodgers in this postseason — and his teams have lost 10 of their last 16 games when he is making the start at home. For his career, Darkish has a subpar 4.74 ERA in 24 2/3 innings of work in the playoffs. I do expect a short leash to be on Darkish tonight with Alex Wood the first likely candidate to replace him being on three days rest from a great start on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will certainly take the mound as well — but he has never pitched well on short rest and is coming off that home outing where he allowed six earned runs. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 4.07 ERA in their last seven games. Finally, while I did not put too much weight in the Dodgers’ eleven-game losing streak in August, I did think it could impact their confidence in pressure-filled moments in these playoffs. Los Angeles blew leads in Game Two and Game Five of this series. Now in front of their home fans after staving off elimination last night by defeating Verlander, the Dodgers may have celebrated a day early. They will likely experience some very anxious moments tonight in the face of failing in this moment where they are now expected to win — as evidenced by this moving money-line.
Houston (111-68) is certainly disappointed in blowing their chance to win the World Series with Justin Verlander on the mound last night — but they get a second chance with a blank slate tonight with the knowledge that they came back to win Game Two of this series in LA. The Astros have proven themselves resilient by winning 44 of their last 66 games after a loss. Houston has also won 16 of their last 21 road games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They give the ball to Lance McCullers who is so ready for this moment that he began warming up last night after the game to get himself acclimated for his moment. The right-hander has always oozed with talent — his biggest problem has been lowering his walk rate to help harness his enormous potential. McCullers has been outstanding in these playoffs by posting a 1-0 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings of work. It was a telling moment when after he earned the four-inning save in Game Seven against the Yankees, manager A.J. Hinch moved him up in the rotation ahead of Charlie Morton who has also pitched quite well this postseason. This Astros team can very well win this game outright. Like Game Five of this wild series, lets happily buy the insurance of the +1.5 Run-Line which is an undervalued commodity in baseball when we are afforded the opportunity to invest at -150 or lower. 25* MLB World Series Game Seven A-List Run-Line Special with the Houston Astros (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers +102 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
102 |
30 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) versus the Houston Astros (911) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Houston (111-67) showed plenty of resolve to rally from an early four-run deficit and kept fighting last night to pull out an epic 13-12 victory in extra innings. Now they are on the brink of winning this World Series with their ace Verlander on the hill who has incredible numbers in potential close out games in the playoffs. That has helped make this game a virtual toss up with this — and created outstanding value on the Dodgers. Verlander showed he was hittable in Game Two of this series when he allowed three runs in 6 innings of work where he left the game with the Astros trailing. Two different left-handed batters hit home runs off him. And only one of Verlander’s seventeen sliders that he threw in that outing coaxed a swing-and-miss from a Dodgers’ batter. Verlander should be good but I do not think he will be unhittable. And manager A.J. Finch lacks reliable alternatives in his bullpen that has a 7.58 ERA in this World Series. Finch has benched his closer Ken Giles from complete ineffectiveness. Game Seven will be a different story with Dallas Kuechel and every other starting pitcher available to pitch — but I do not like the pitching situation for the Astros on Tuesday after Verlander at all. Keep in mind that Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road in these playoffs. And in their last 9 trips to Los Angeles, they have lost 7 of their games with the Dodgers.
Los Angeles (113-62) returns home where they have won 52 of their last 71 games. The Dodgers have also won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 54 games after scoring at least five runs. And in their last 27 games after an off day, the Dodgers have won 21 of these contests. They give the ball to Rich Hill who out-pitched Verlander in Game Two by allowing only one earned run while striking out seven batters in that outing. I think Hill being a journeyman for so long before he found greatness late in his career will help his perspective in handling the pressure of this moment. He has a 2.77 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in 13 innings with 19Ks in this postseason. Hill was also outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games at home with Hill on the mound. 25* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) versus the Houston Astros (911) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros +1.5 |
Top |
12-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. I had been debating what my side play would be in this potential Game Five situation since the end of Game One — and this internal conversation continued after the Dodgers’ 6-2 victory to even this series at 2-2 and through my early morning finishing up my early NFL plays for the day. I was considering this situation a toss up. After a short break to help focus my attention on this play, it (finally) hit me that the strong value play with this game was with the Astros plus the +1.5 Run-Line which is priced reasonably (as I define as no higher than -150) given the high value that is being placed on Kershaw. The left-hander was outstanding in Game One of this series and has been quite good all postseasn. But Kershaw does have that 4.21 ERA in 113 1/3 innings in the playoffs — and this will be just his second start in these playoffs away from home. Kershaw was not been quite as effective on the road in the regular season where he had a 0.98 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts as compared to his 0.92 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in nineteen starts at home. He is facing an Astros team that has won 23 of their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Dodgers have still lost 4 of their last 6 road games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. And in their last 38 road games after a win by at least four runs, Los Angeles has lost 22 of these games.
Houston (110-67) has rebounded to win 44 of their last 64 games after a loss. The Astros have also won 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 48 games after a loss by at least four runs, Houston ash won 34 of these games. The Astros managed only two base hits last night — but they have then won 21 of their last 28 games after failing to scratch out more than four hits in their last game. This remains a team that has won 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 8 playoff games at home. They counter with Dallas Keuchel who will be looking to avenge his Game One loss to Kershaw. For the season, the left-hander had a 14-5 record with a 2.90 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP this season. Keuchel was outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. In his 38 innings in his career in the playoffs, Keuchel has a 2.84 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. The Astros have won 17 of their last 23 home games with Keuchel pitching against a team with a winning record. Furthermore, the Dodgers have lost 21 of their last 31 road games in Interleague play (with a Designated Hitter) against a left-handed starting pitcher. Lastly, because the Astros have a slugging percentage of .461, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 83% effective since 1997. Kershaw has not issued a walk in either of his last two starts — but American League home underdogs with a slugging percentage of .450 or higher facing a starting pitcher who has not issued a base-on-balls in at least two straight starts have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line (when then priced in the -130 to +110 price range) in 38 of the last 46 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB World Series Game Five A-List Run-Line Special with the Houston Astros (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Los Angeles (112-60) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 7-6 win in extra innings in what became a game for the ages in World Series history. The Dodgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after an off day. Now they go on the road where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games away from home. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander was been more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 2.44 ERA with a .206 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.25 ERA along with a .246 opponent’s batting average at home with Texas and then the Dodgers after being traded to LA. The right-hander has been outstanding in this postseason where he has a 2–0 record with a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in two starts. Darvish’s teams have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price-range. He faces an Astros team that is hitting just .201 over their last seven games with a .280 On-Base Percentage and .638 OPS over that span. Houston has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Houston (109-66) has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home in Minute Maid Park. The Astros have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when hosting the Dodgers. It is telling that manager A.J. Hinch has decided to tap Lance McCullers over Charlie Morton who was the starter in Game Seven of the ALCS against the Yankees last Saturday. McCullers pitched four scoreless innings in that game to earn the save while allowing only one hit and no earned runs. During the regular season, McCullers was 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 3.04 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 5.14 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Astros have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with McCullers the starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. McCullers has been money this postseason given his 2.08 ERA along with an 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings that includes two starts along with that bullpen stint last week. He faces a Dodgers’ team that its hitting just .233 over their last seven games. Lastly, the Under is 5-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
130 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (902) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (901) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. With the money-line listed for this game in the -170 range, I will be following my self-imposed guideline to not endorse a favorite (or underdog for that matter) in those situations and instead consider the Run-Line plays with that price in the +/- 150 range for both sides. Houston (108-65) reached the World Series with their 4-0 win over the Cubs on Saturday. But that game was at home — and the Astros have struggled on the road this postseason. They looked overwhelmed by the atmosphere in the Bronx against the Yankees losing all three games there. Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games away from home — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road in the playoffs. The Astros have also lost 6 of their last 7 games in LA against the Dodgers. They send out Keuchel who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP during the regular season. The left-hander was outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts — but those numbers jumped to 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in his twelve starts on the road. Keuchel does have a 2-1 record in the postseason with a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three starts — but two of those starts were at home. In his one start away from home in the playoffs, Keuchel was rocked for four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work in New York in his last start while giving up seven base hits and issuing a walk. Now he faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a batting average of .264 along with a .373 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .832. Los Angeles has won a decisive 37 of their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Dodgers have also won 35 of their last 51 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Los Angeles (111-59) has won seven of their eight playoff games this postseason with their 11-1 win in Chicago over the Cubs on Thursday. The Dodgers should build off their momentum in this opening game of the World Series. Los Angeles has won a decisive 67 of their last 86 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Dodgers have also won 59 of their last 75 games after a win. And in their last 37 home games after a game where they allowed one run or less, LA has won 31 of these games. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 54 games at home, Los Angeles has won 40 of these contests. They give the ball to Clayton Kershaw who is 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP this season. Kershaw’s peripheral numbers are better at home where he produced a 0.92 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in fourteen regular season starts as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Dodgers have won 41 of their last 53 home games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. Kershaw was outstanding in his last start where he allowed just one earned run and just three hits in Chicago against the Cubs — and LA has won 42 of their last 54 games with Kershaw looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Dodgers have also won 35 of their last 42 games with Kershaw pitching with the Total set at just 7 or even lower. And remember, he is supported by a red hot bullpen that has a 1.04 ERA with a 0.39 WHIP (!) over their last seven games. Kershaw faces an Astros team that is scoring just 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .187 batting average along with a .269 On-Base Percentage and .563 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Dodgers have won 41 of their last 59 games when a money-line favorite priced at least at -150 with Kershaw on the mound. Rather than paying that high price, instead take the Dodgers priced as the underdog when laying -1.5 runs. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (902) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (901) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-17 |
Yankees v. Astros -127 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and C.C. Sabathia. Houston (107-65) made possible this decisive Game Seven last night with their 7-1 victory over the Yankees. The Astros will have momentum on their side tonight after that decisive victory. Houston has won 20 of their last 27 games after a win. The Astros have also won 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 19 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest, Houston has won 14 of these games. Home field has been a huge factor in this series as well — and it gives the Astros more of an edge than the money-line price is suggesting given their 53-33 record in Minute Maid Park. Houston has won 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have won 6 straight home games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Astros have won 6 straight home games in the ALCS. They give the ball to Morton who is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP this season. He appears to be the weak link for this team tonight after he was shelled for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings or work on Monday in Game Three of this series. But that game was in Yankee Stadium where Morton had a 4.17 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average in nine starts during the regular season. Back at home, Morton saw those numbers improve to a 3.34 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in sixteen regular season starts at home. Furthermore, Morton pitches better at night — and the Astros have won 29 of their last 41 night games with Morton on the mound.
New York (98-76) has been outstanding at home all season — but this young ball club has been a different team on the road where they are just 41-46 for the season. They saw their three-game winning streak snapped last night — but they have then lost 19 of their last 27 road games after winning three of there lsat four games. They have lost 6 of their last 7 road games this season — and they have lost 8 of their last 9 playoff games away from home. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record over 60% at home, the Yankees have lost 5 of these games. Additionally, this team has lost 5 straight games in Houston. They give the ball to C.C. Sabathia who is 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander had a 1.23 WHIP and .243 opponent’s batting average in thirteen regular season starts at home, those numbers rose to a 1.32 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. Furthermore, while the veteran has been very good in three postseason starts this season, he does still carry a mediocre 4.24 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 123 career playoff innings. Lastly, this Astros team crushes left-handed pitching as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game against lefty starters this year with a .282 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and .812 OPS. 25* MLB Yankees-Astros Game Seven A-List Special with money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-17 |
Yankees v. Astros UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-7 |
Loss |
-122 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Justin Verlander. Houston (106-65) returns home having lost all three games in Yankee Stadium after their 5-0 loss on Wednesday. The Astros have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Houston has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 15-5-1 in the Astros’ last 21 home ames against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Verlander tonight who has been outstanding for them since being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. In his five regular season starts wearing an Astros uniform, Verlander had a 5-0 record with a 1.06 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP. In his two regular season starts in Houston, Verlander had a 0.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 0.93 WHIP. The right-hander has been outstanding in the postseason with a 3-0 record along with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings of work. In his 116 innings in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 10-5 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Verlander comes off a complete game where he allowed only one earned run against the Yankees in Game Two of this series — and not only am I not worried about the carry over from the pitch count from that effort with him pitching on his normal four days of rest but his teams have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their 7 games Under the Total with Verlander on the mound for them. He faces a Yankees lineup that is hitting only .227 with a .301 On-Base Percentage and .688 OPS over their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in New York’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
New York (98-75) has seen the Under go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a win — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after an off day. Now New York goes back on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Severino who is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 2.24 ERA in fifteen regular season starts as compared to his 3.71 ERA an sixteen starts at home. He faces a Houston team that is scoring just 2.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .207 Batting Average along with an On-Base Percentage of .277 and an OPS of .577. The Astros have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, Houston has payed 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB American League Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-17 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Cubs |
Top |
11-1 |
Win
|
105 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (911) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw. Chicago (96-75) staved off elimination last night with their 3-2 victory over the Dodgers. And while Joe Maddon needed to exhaust his closer Wade Davis to eke out that game, the 48 pitches he threw last night will likely make him unavailable to pitch which is not a good sign for this team. Even with Davis’ good work of late, the Chicago bullpen still has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP over their last seven games. The Cubs still have to win three straight games to survive this series — and they have lost 4 straight games after a victory. Chicago has also lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Cubs have lost 8 of these games. They give the ball to Quintana who is 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled in Wrigley Field since moving a few miles north after being traded to the Cubs from the White Sox this season. In eight starts as a Cub in Wrigley, Quintana has a 4.76 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.54 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road in a Cubs’ uniform.
Los Angeles (110-59) has still won eight of their last nine games as well as twelve of their last fourteen contests — and they have won a decisive 63 of their last 81 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dodgers have also won 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They turn to their ace Kershaw who is 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP this season. The left-hander has a better ERA on the road with a 2.03 mark in thirteen regular season starts as compared to his 2.58 ERA in fourteen home starts. The Dodgers have won 23 of their last 31 road games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. Kershaw was good in Game One of this series where he allowed two earned runs whole striking out four run 5 innings of work. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 games against Chicago with Kershaw on the hill. He faces this Chicago team that is still struggling to score runs. Over their last seven games, the Cubs are scoring just 2.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .169 batting average along with a .230 On-Base Percentage and .498 OPS. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Given the apparent mismatch between these two starting pitchers, the Dodgers are money-line favorites in the -160 range. Los Angeles has won 41 of their last 49 games with Kershaw pitching as a money-line favorite of at least -150. Lastly, because the Dodgers managed only four hits last night, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 64% effective since 1997. Los Angeles averages 4.1 Bases-on-Balls per game — and road favorites who average at least 4.0 Bases-on-Balls per game and who come off a game where they did not manage more than four hits have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the +115 to +160 price range) in 77 of the last 121 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (911) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-17 |
Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:01 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (967) and the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Chicago (95-75) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after their 6-1 loss to the Dodgers last night. The Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Chicago has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Cubs played 4 straight home games Under the Total but they have also played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total at home when a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. I was a little surprised to the see the Total listed at 9.5 (as of this writing) when it opened — but Chicago has played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Arrieta who is 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in ten starts. Arrieta has been good in the playoffs throughout his career given his 3.33 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP in 46 innings of work. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 games with Arrieta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Los Angeles (110-58) has seen the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a victory. The Dodgers have also played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Alex Wood who is making his start this postseason. He seems to not be given much respect from the oddsmakers and the betting public with this Total in the 9 range. The left-handed enjoyed a breakout season where he posted a 16-3 record with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been outstanding on the road where he owns a 2.24 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in thirteen starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average in fourteen games (twelve starts) at home. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Wood facing a team with a winning record. He should thrive against this cold Cubs lineup that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .174 batting average with a .245 On-Base Percentage and .522 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in Chicago’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League Playoffs Total of the Year with Los Angeles Dodgers (967) and the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-17 |
Dodgers +101 v. Cubs |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
101 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the Chicago Cubs (964) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Los Angeles (109-58) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Sunday with their 4-1 victory over the Cubs. The Dodgers are on fire having won seven straight games along with eleven of their last twelve contests. Some bettors might think that Los Angeles is due for a loss having won so many games in a row — with this logic being similar to bettors betting on red after seeing black one too many times in a row at a roulette table. That thinking would quickly bankrupt you if applied to this 2017 Dodgers team. Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 53 games after winning at least three straight games. The Dodgers have also won 62 of their last 80 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 58 of their last 73 games after a victory. And in their last 26 games after an off day, the Dodgers have won 20 of these contests. Furthermore, LA has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander made nine starts with the Dodgers after being traded to them from the Rangers — and he was more effective when the road. Dervish was 3-1 in five road starts with LA with a 2.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. He should thrive against this Cubs offense that is struggling to hit — over their last seven games, they are scoring just 2.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .162 batting average along with a .235 On-Base Percentage and .492 OPS.
Chicago (95-74) returns home for this must-win situation down 0-2 in this series. It is difficult to repeat as champions in all sports with that initial passion and drive to reach the mountaintop just not as strong the second time around. The fact that this team has now lost 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% could be a harbinger for things to come. The Cubs have also lost 7 of their lat 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — so Wrigley Field has not been a safe haven as low late. Furthermore, this Chicago team has lost 5 of their last 7 home games in the NLCS going back to last year and beyond. They counter with Kyle Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.20 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home as compared to his 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. And while Hendricks was outstanding in last year’s playoff run, he has not been quite as dominant this postseason given his 3.27 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP in 11 innings spanning two starts. He faces a Dodgers team that has won 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, this Cubs’ bullpen has really struggled as of late with a 7.03 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP over their last seven games. The Chicago bullpen has a mediocre 4.03 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP at home this year. On the other hand, the Dodgers’ bullpen has a 1.71 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP in their last seven games — and they have a superior 3.95 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP on the road when compared to the Cubs’ pen at home. 25* MLB National League Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the Chicago Cubs (964) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-17 |
Astros v. Yankees -131 |
Top |
1-8 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (910) versus the Houston Astros (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Charlie Morton. New York (95-75) returns home to the Bronx in a desperate situation down 0-2 in this series after their 2-1 loss to the Astros on Saturday. The Yankees have rebounded to win 18 of their last 24 games after a loss — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. And while New York has now lost four straight games to the Astros going back to the regular season, they have then won 22 of their last 33 games when playing with at least double-revenge against their opponents. Being back in Yankee Stadium with their energetic crowd will help. New York has won 40 of their last 57 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Yankees have also won 24 of their last 32 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They have the right starting pitcher on the mound tonight in Sabathia with which they have won 10 of the last 12 games when needing to stop a losing streak. Sabathia is 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season — and he has been more effective at home where he has a 1.23 WHIP and .243 opponent’s batting average in thirteen regular season starts as compared to his 1.32 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in fourteen regular season starts on the road. The Yankees ave won 13 of their last 16 home games with Sabathia on the mound.
Houston (106-62) is a franchise that has still lost 5 of their last 7 games in the Championship Series — so they may begin to feel the pressure of the moment as they get closer to reaching the World Series. They counter with Charlie Morton who is 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .247 WHIP in nine regular season starts as compared to his 3.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts at home. He faces a New York team that clobbers the ball at home. The Yankees are scorn 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .265 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and .803 OPS. Additionally, New York has won 19 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Finally, if this game goes to the bullpens, the Yankees should have the edge. The Astros’ pen has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP over their last seven games while the Yankees have a 2.39 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP over their last seven. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Yankees (910) versus the Houston Astros (909) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-17 |
Yankees v. Astros -1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (901) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka. New York (95-73) picked themselves off the mat falling 0-2 in their series with the Indians to win three straight games to advance to the American League Championship Series with their 5-2 victory on Wednesday. Expect a big letdown from this team now — and manager Joe Girardi may decide to save some of his bullpen arms if this one gets out of hand early. Certainly, this will be the least urgent game for the Yankees since Game One of the ALDS. As it is, New York has lost 17 of their last 25 road games after winning at least three straight games. The Yankees have also lost 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs on the road. And in their last 5 games in the ALCS, New York has lost all 5 contests. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.48 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Tanaka facing a team with a winning record. Furthermore, New York has lost 4 straight games with Tanaka making the start agains the Astros. That is not a good sign when now this hot-hitting Houston team that is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .289 batting average along with a .354 On-Base Percentage and .793 OPS over that span. Additionally, the Astros have won a decisive 42 of their last 62 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Houston (104-62) has won four of their last five games after dispatching of the Red Sox in four games in the ALDS with their 5-4 victory on Monday. The Astros have then won 18 of their last 24 games after a victory — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Houston has won 13 of their last 16 games at home. They give the ball to Dallas Keuchel who is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been very tough at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA along with an 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Astros have won 36 of their last 52 home games with Keuchel on the hill. He faces cold Yankees’ lineup that is hitting just .206 with their last seven games with a .287 On-Base Percentage and a .652 OPS over that span. Lastly, because Houston has a slugging percentage of .467, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. The Astros bullpen averages pitching 3.4 innings per game — and teams with a slugging percentage of at least .440 with a bullpen that averages at least 3.2 innings per game now facing an American League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 70 of the last 108 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Houston Astros (902) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (901) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-17 |
Cubs -105 v. Nationals |
Top |
9-8 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the Washington Nationals (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Gio Gonzalez. In this winner-take-all single elimination contest, expect the reigning World Series Champions to bounce-back with a victory tonight. Washington (99-67) forced a climactic fifth game in this series last night with their 5-0 shutout victory. But in a one-game playoff, I have much more faith in the managerial skill of Joe Maddon over Dusty Baker who has seen his teams lose 8 of the 12 elimination games that he has managed in his career even after yesterday. Furthermore, with all the drama and emotion surrounding Stephen Strasburg-Gate, this is a team primed for an emotional letdown after surviving that elimination game on the road yesterday. The Nationals return home where they have lost 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home — so there will be a nervous energy in Washington with fans perhaps expecting bad things to happen. And while the Nationals have not allowed more than three runs in any game in this series, they have then lost 17 of their last 24 games after not allowing more than three runs in at least four straight games. They give the ball to Gonzales how is 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 1.20 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 1.16 WHIP and .208 opponent’s batting average in seventeen starts on the road. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 games with Gonzalez pitching on four days of rest. Gonzalez also has mediocre numbers in the playoffs given his 4.24 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts in 23 1/3 innings of work. And in their last 5 games with Gonzalez facing a team these Cubs, the Nationals have lost 4 of these games.
Chicago (94-72) should be calm in this contest given their experience from last year where they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Indians in the World Series. As it is, the Cubs have won 30 of their last 41 games after a loss. Chicago has also won 5 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubs have not hit a home run in the last two games of this series — but they have then won 25 of their last 36 road games after failing to hit a home run for two straight games. This is a great road team that has won a decisive 70 of their last 105 road games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range over the last two seasons. Chicago has also won 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road this year where he enjoys a 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. Hendricks has a proven track record in the postseason where he sports a 1.98 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in eight playoff starts spanning 41 innings of work. Furthermore, the Cubs have won 8 of their last 10 games with Hendricks on the hill after a game where they did not score more than two earned runs in their last game. 25* MLB Cubs-Nationals Game Five *A-List* Special with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (959) versus the Washington Nationals (960) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-17 |
Yankees +1.5 v. Indians |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (915) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Corey Kluber. I hate this situation for Cleveland (104-62). After winning the first two games of this series after eking out the second game of this series at home by a 9-8 score in 13 innings. The Indians then lost both games played in New York and now return home for this climactic fifth game with the entire city fully aware that they have lost six straight winner-take-all games in the MLB Playoffs. Furthermore, a loss by Cleveland tonight will make the Indians team the first team in MLB history to blow a playoff series with at least a two-game lead at one — with the nightmare of losing last year’s World Series on the mind of everyone in that stadium tonight. Additionally, the Indians have also lost sixteen of their nineteen games when they have the opportunity to clinch a playoff series. They are swinging very cold bats right now as they have a .170 batting average with just 18 hits over the last three games spanning 31 innings. Cleveland has then lost 30 of their last 46 games when not hitting better than .175 over their last three games. The Indians have also lost 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs with the memories of their World Series collapse looming. Cleveland has also lost 4 of their last 5 Game Fives. They give the ball to their ace Kluber who is 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP this season. But Kluber’s confidence may be shaky after he allowed six earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of work in Game One of this series. Furthermore, not only has Cleveland lost 24 of their last 43 games with Kluber looking to stop a losing streak but they have also lost 5 of their last 7 games with Kluber pitching after a game where they allowed at least five earned runs.
New York (94-73) will be playing with tons of confidence and very little pressure since this young team was considered a year away. The experience and leadership of manager Joe Girardi offers them a big psychological advantage in this game. The Yankees have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. New York has also won 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range, the Yankees have won 10 of these contests. Furthermore, this New York team has won an incredible 15 of their last 28 games straight-up when a big money-line underdog priced in the +175 to +250 range. They give the ball to their veteran leader C.C. Sabathia who is 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. His 112 2/3 innings of postseason work in his career will have him prepared for this moment. Sabathia was solid in the opening game of this series when he allowed two earned runs on just three hits in 5 2/3 innings of work. Girardi also has the benefit of two super relievers in David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman as well as his entire starting staff for this contest. Sabathia has had a better ERA on the road where he had a 3.18 ERA in fourteen start as compared to his 4.20 ERA in thirteen starts when at home. The Yankees have won 11 of their last 15 games with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, while the Yankees are hitting just .208 over their last five games, that helps support them with a 65% effective specific to the Run-Line over the last five seasons. Cleveland is hitting .260 this season — and American League road underdogs with a batting average no better than .265 for the season but hitting less than .225 over their last five games now facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or less (Cleveland bullpen: 2.84 ERA) have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 85 of the last 133 situations where these conditions applied. The Yankees could pull the upset tonight but take the advantage of the +1.5 Run-Line with them reasonably priced. 25* MLB Divisional Playoffs Run-Line of the Year with the New York Yankees (915) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Corey Kluber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-17 |
Nationals -107 v. Cubs |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (905) versus the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jose Quintana. Washington (98-66) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 6-3 win over the Cubbies. The Nationals have then won 5 of their last 7 games after an off-day. Washington has also been capable road warriors this season as they have won 36 of their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record. The Nationals have also won 12 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. They send out Max Scherzer — and it is Scherzer we are trusting in his duel with Quintana. The right-hander has been tough again this season with his 16-6 record along with a 2.51 ERA and 0.90 WHIP this season. He has been even better when on the road where he enjoys a 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .156 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts. The Nationals have won 6 of their last 8 road games with Scherzer facing a team with a winning record. Scherzer is pitching great right now as he enjoys a 1.65 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts with a 22:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those 16 1/3 innings of work. He should fare well against this Cubs team that is hitting just .211 over their last seven games with a .278 On-Base Percentage and .631 OPS.
Chicago (93-71) saw their bullpen let them down on Saturday as they surrendered five runs in the 8th inning for that 6-3 loss. The Cubs have then lost 9 of their last 13 games after a game where their bullpen gave up at least four runs. Chicago returns home to Wrigley Field where they have lost 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Jose Quintana who I expect to get out-pitched this afternoon. For the season, the left-hander has a 4.15 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP. This will be his first game ever in the postseason after spending most of his career with the White Sox — and this puts him at a significant disadvantage in playoff experience relative to Scherzer who has 74 2/3 playoff innings under his belt. Quintana has not been as effective at home at Wrigley Field for the Cubs this year where he has a 4.76 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and 238 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 2.54 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Quintana’s teams have lost 5 of their last 6 home games when a money-line underdog priced at least at +100. He faces a Washington team that has won 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. And in the Nationals last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower, they have won 5 of these games. 25* MLB Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (905) versus the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-17 |
Indians v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (953) and the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. New York (92-73) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after falling behind by a 2-0 margin in this series on Friday with their 9-8 loss to the Indians. The Yankees have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss. New York has also valued 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Now New York returns home to Yankee Stadium where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Yanks have also played 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs at home Under the Total. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has been much better at home where he owns a 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 6.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 home games with Tanaka on the hill. He should pitch well against this Cleveland team that is hitting just .220 over their last seven games with a mediocre .324 On-Base Percentage and a .703 OPS over that span. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cleveland (104-60) has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. The Indians have also played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. And in their last 15 games after a game where at least fifteen combined runs were scored, Cleveland has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Now they go on the road where the Under is a decisive 39-18-7 in their last 64 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Indians have also played 6 of their last 7 playoff games on the road Under the Total. They counter with Carlos Carrasco who is 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. Cleveland has played 13 of their last 15 road games Under the Total with Carrasco pitching as a money-line favorite priced no higher than -150. He should thrive against this Yankees team that is hitting just .219 over their last seven games with a .219 batting average along with a .292 On-Base Percentage and .687 OPS. 25* MLB Divisional Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (953) and the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-17 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
5-9 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM EDT on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (984) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (983) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Taijuan Walker. Arizona (94-69) advanced the National League Divisional Series with their 11-8 win over the Rockies on Wednesday. But this Diamondbacks team now opens this series having lost 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series. Arizona has lost 5 straight games in the playoffs on the road. The Diamondbacks have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road from the regular season. And in their last 10 playoff games, Arizona has lost 7 of these contests. Additionally, this team has been awful when priced as a big money-line underdog as they have lost 63 of their last 76 games when priced as an underdog at +200 or higher. Because of the Wildcard game which required Zack Greinke to pitch and Robbie Ray to take the mound to help preserve their lead, the Diamondbacks have to rely on Walker to take the mound tonight. The right-hander is 9-9 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season — but he has not been as effective on the road where he has an ERA of 1.36 and an opponent’s batting average of .251 in sixteen starts as compared to his 1.30 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at home. Furthermore, Arizona has lost 6 of their last 7 games with Walker pitching with five days of rest. Walker does not enter this game pitching well as he has a 5.27 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over his last three starts. He faces a Los Angeles team that has won a decisive 48 of their last 66 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers have also won 53 of their last 76 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Los Angeles (104-58) has recovered from their August slump as they enter the postseason having won six of their last seven games. The Dodgers have won a decisive 47 of their last 65 games at home — and this includes winning ten of their last thirteen home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles has also won 16 of their last 21 games after an off day. They give the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw who was 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been very tough at home in fourteen starts where he has a 0.92 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Dodgers have won 39 of their last 51 home games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. Kershaw has a troubled past in the playoffs where he has a career ERA of 4.55 in 89 innings — but facing these very familiar Diamondbacks will help. Kershaw is 14-8 with a 2.55 ERA in 26 career starts against Arizona which includes a 2-0 mark with a 0.59 ERA this year. With the Dodgers priced in the -250 money-line range, lets reduce that price by taking Los Angeles behind Kershaw at around half that price with the -1.5 Run-Line — and the Dodgers are supported by an empirical situational angle that has been 65% effective that is specific to that -1.5 Run-Line. Arizona has won eleven of the nineteen meetings between these two teams this season — including winning the last six encounters with the last two being by 3-1 scores. However, teams with a winning percentage of at least 62% looking to avenge at least two straight losses against an opponent with a winning record where they did not score more than one run in either game have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 53 of the last 81 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National League Playoff Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (984) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (983) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Taijuan Walker. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-04-17 |
Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 |
Top |
8-11 |
Win
|
120 |
53 h 37 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the Arizona Diamondbacks (934) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (933) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Zack Greinke. Arizona (93-68) looks to take care of business tonight and advance to the National League Divisional Playoffs with a win over the Rockies. Getting to play this game at home is a big advantage for this team as they were a dominant 52-29 at home in Chase Field this year. The Diamondbacks won 6 of their last 8 games at home to close out the regular season. Arizona has also won 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 28 games against fellow NL West opponents, the Diamondbacks have won 20 of these contests. They give the ball to Greinke who is 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 17-7 mark with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Greinke has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.87 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts as compared to his 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. Arizona has won 20 of their last 26 home games with Greinke on the mound.
Colorado (97-75) was a strong 46-35 at home in Coors Field but they were just 41-40 on the road. The Rockies have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. Colorado has also lost 5 of the last 6 games after an off day. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Rockies have lost 4 of these contests. That does not inspire confidence for an organization that has lost 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. Furthermore, Colorado has lost 7 of their last 10 games against NL West opponents — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against the Diamondbacks. They counter with Job Gray who is 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. But while the right-hander has a 3.13 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.06 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .281 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 11 of their last 16 games on the road with Gray facing a team with a winning record. He faces a strong Arizona lineup that scores 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .274 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and .819 OPS. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, while none of these team trends take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this game, the Rockies do fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 69% effective over the last five seasons. Colorado has a .433 slugging percentage — and road teams with a slugging percentage of .430 or higher using a starting pitcher that does not walk more than 1.75 batters per start (Gray: 1.67 walks per start) now facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 or lower have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 50 of the last 72 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Year with the Arizona Diamondbacks (934) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (933) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-03-17 |
Twins v. Yankees OVER 7.5 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (931) and the New York Yankees (932) listing both starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Luis Severino. We have a strong technical situation here. New York (91-71) hosts this AL Wildcard game tonight as a heavy money-line favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a money-line favorite priced at least at -200. The Yankees enter this game having allowing 2 runs, 1 run and zero runs in their last three games. But New York has then played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after allowing three runs or less in their last two contests — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after allowing no more than three runs in three straight games. And in their last 10 games after an off day, the Yankees have played 7 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Severino who is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective at home where he owns a 3.71 ERA in sixteen starts as compared to his 2.24 ERA in fifteen starts on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Severino on the mound — and that includes playing four straight Overs at home with Severino facing a team with a winning record. Furthermore, while Severino comes off a strong outing where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings against the Rays — and not only have the Yankees played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Severino following up a Quality Start but they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Severino following up a start where he allowed only one earned run.
Minnesota (85-77) enters this playoff game coming off a 5-1 win over the Tigers on Sunday — and they have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total on the road after a win by at least four runs. The Twins have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after an off day. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They counter with Ervin Santana who is 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has struggled in the postseason. In 22 2/3 innings of work in the postseason which includes two starts and six appearances from the bullpen, Santana has a 5.56 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. Lastly, Minnesota has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games on the road. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with the Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (931) and the New York Yankees (932) listing both starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-17 |
Tigers v. Twins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (925) and the Minnesota Twins (926) while listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson. Detroit (63-96) snapped their nine-game losing streak last night with their 4-1 win in Kansas City. The Tigers have then played 12 of their last 15 Over the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, not only has Detroit played 34 of their last 46 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games but they have played 26 of their last 35 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five contests. This team has not scored more than four runs in eight straight games — but they have then played 19 of their last 25 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. And while the Tigers are looking to avenge getting swept at home in a four-game series against this Minnesota team, they have then played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge after being swept in at least a three-game series against their opponent. Additionally, Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series Over the Total. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 3-0-1. They give the ball to Boyd who is 6-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.54 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been less effective on the road where he owns a 5.86 ERA, 1.870 WHIP and .328 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 4.52 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Tigers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Boyd on the hill. He faces a red-hot Minnesota offense that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last three games with a .296 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and .815 OPS. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Twins’ last 5 games against starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Minnesota (83-76) has lost two in a row with their 5-2 loss in Cleveland yesterday. The Twins have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Kyle Gibson who is 12-10 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at homie where he owns a 5.65 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and .308 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home as compared to his 4.34 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Gibson pitching as the favorite. Furthermore, the Twins have played 11 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Gibson pitching in the month of September. He faces a Detroit team that has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Over is 5-0-1. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (925) and the Minnesota Twins (926) while listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-28-17 |
Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (957) and the St. Louis Cardinals (958) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn. Chicago (89-69) won the third game of this series yesterday with their 5-2 victory yesterday. The Cubs have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 28 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Cubs have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Hendricks on the mound. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home against right-handed starting pitchers.
St. Louis (82-76) has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home. They counter with Lance Lynn who is 11-8 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.02 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and .220 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts on the road. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lynn pitching with four days of rest. And in the Cards’ last 16 games with Lynn pitching in the second-half of the season, they have played 12 of these games Under the Total. Lastly, he faces a Cubs team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (957) and the St. Louis Cardinals (958) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-27-17 |
Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 |
Top |
5-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Mark Leiter. Philadelphia (63-95) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 victory over the Nationals last night. The Phillies have now seen the Under go 6-2-3 in their last 11 games at home. That was just the second time in their last six games where they managed to score four runs — and they have then played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they scored no more than four runs. Additionally, the Under is 5-0-2 in Philly’s last 7 games Under the Total against NL East opponents. They give the ball to Leiter who is 3-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for immediate improvement with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.10 or 4.12 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his ugly 7.35 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .281 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 home games with Leiter on the hill. He should fare well against this Washington team that is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .192 batting average, .259 On-Base Percentage and .626 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Under is 21-7-3 in the Nationals’ last 31 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Washington (95-62) saw their three-winning streak snapped last night. The Nationals have now played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the month of September. And while the Washington bullpen has an ERA of 1.53 over their last five games, the Nats have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Furthermore, Washington has played 4 straight games Under the Total against NL East opponents. And in their last 26 games on the road, the Under is 17-5-4 in these contests — and the Nationals have played four straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 12-3-3 in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Tanner Roark who is 13-10 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been much better on the road with a 3.84 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts (sixteen games) at home. Washington has played 5 straight road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. Furthermore, Roark comes off a nice outing where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work at Atlanta — and the Nats have played 9 straight games Under the Total with Roark looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Philadelphia team that has scored only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are hitting just .207 with a .290 On-Base Percentage and a .606 OPS. Lastly, the Under his 5-1-4 in the Phillies’ last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB NL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Mark Leiter. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-26-17 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
Top |
4-11 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Matt Moore and Robbie Ray. San Francisco (62-95) exploded for nine runs last night in their 9-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this National League West series. The Giants have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has also played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 48 games at night on the road, the Giants have played 30 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Moore who is 6-14 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been particularly ineffective on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.51 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts (sixteen games) on the road as compared to his 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts (seventeen games) at home. San Francisco has seen the Over go 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games with Moore facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with an OPS of .802 over that span.
Arizona (90-67) has seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 10-4-1 in the Diamondback’s last 15 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%, Arizona has played 5 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Robbie Ray who is 14-5 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has struggled at home in Chase Field where he has a 4.37 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .177 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 26 home games with Ray on the hill — and that includes Arizona played six of their last seven home games Over the Total with Ray facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Giants’ team that is swinging better bats to close out the season as they are hitting .286 over their last seven games with a .397 On-Base Percentage and a .761 OPS over that span. Lastly, in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in Arizona, the game finished Over the Total in 11 of these contests. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Matt Moore and Robbie Ray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-17 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Drew Pomeranz. Boston (91-64) begins this series coming off a 5-4 win at Cincinnati yesterday afternoon. The Under is then 21-8-2 in the Red Sox’s last 31 games after a victory. Boston has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 51 games at home, the Under is 33-16-2 for the Red Sox — and this includes playing twenty-one of their last thirty home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Pomeranz who is 16-5 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home as compared to his 3.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Red Sox have played 4 of their las 5 games Under the Total with Pomeranz pitching on grass. He should fare well again this Blue Jays team that is hitting only .201 over their last seven games with a .274 On-Base Percentage and .636 OPS. The Under is a decisive 46-19-5 in Toronto’s last 70 games against left-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Under is 18-8-1.
Toronto (73-63) begins this series coming off a 9-5 win over the Yankees yesterday. The Red Sox have then played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Toronto has played 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AL East opponents. Together, these team trends produce our specific They counter with Brett Anderson who is 3-4 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.81 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been much better on the road where his ERA plummets to a 2.86 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his ugly 11.19 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and .385 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home between the Cubs and now the Blue Jays. He should find success against this slumping Red Sox team that is hitting only .203 over their last seven games along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and .605 OPS over that span. 25* MLB AL East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Drew Pomeranz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-17 |
Angels v. Astros UNDER 9 |
Top |
7-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (971) and the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Lance McCullers. Houston (95-59) has won eight of their last nine games with their 6-2 victory in the second game of this series. The Astros have now played 5 straight games Under the Total after a victory. Houston has also seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games at home — and that includes playing 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to McCullers making his first start since the beginning of the month after dealing with arm fatigue. He was fine in his last bullpen session and will be motivated to prove himself in this audition to be included in the team’s playoff rotation. For the season, McCullers has a 7-3 record along with a 3.97 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.39 and 3.15 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.78 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Astros have played 17 of their last 22 home games Under the Total with McCullers on the mound. He should fare well against this LA team that has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. This is a slumping Angels’ team playing out the string. Over their last seven games, this team is scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .186 batting average along with a .272 On-Base Percentage and .576 OPS.
Los Angeles (76-78) has lost six in a row after yesterday. The Angels have played 34 of their last 51 games Under the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Tyler Skaggs who is 2-6 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Angels have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Skaggs on the mound. He will be facing an Astros team that is slumping on offense. Over their last seven games, Houston is scoring only 4.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .250 batting average along with a .310 On-Base Percentage and .741 OPS as compared to their 5.4 Runs-Per-Game scoring average for the season along with a .280 batting average, .341 On-Base Percentage and .804 OPS. Lastly, the Astros have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (971) and the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-17 |
Cardinals v. Pirates +1.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Michael Wacha. Pittsburgh (69-84) looks to build off their 6-4 win over the Brewers on Wednesday. The Pirates have then won 20 of their last 31 games after a victory by at least two runs. Pittsburgh has also won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and the Cardinals are 38-40 on the road. They give the ball to Nova who is 11-14 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been much better at home where he owns a 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 5.03 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts on the road. The Pirates have won 6 straight games at home with Nova on the hill.
St. Louis (80-72) enters this series with three straight wins with their 8-5 win in Cincinnati. The Cardinals continue their nine-game road trip with their seventh straight game away from home — but they have then lost 28 of their last 48 games after playing at least six straight games on the road. And while the Pirates have a bullpen ERA of 1.34 WHIP this year, St. Louis has lost 41 of their last 73 games against teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or lower. They counter with Michael Wacha who is 12-8 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.38 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.07 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts as compared to his 3.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NL Central opponents with Wacha on the hill. Furthermore, the Pirates have won 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, while these team trends do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this game, Pittsburgh is supported by an empirical situational angle that has been 64% effective over the last five seasons. Nova is allowing 1.0 home runs per start this season — and teams with a batting average no better than .255 (Pittsburgh: .243 batting average) with a starting pitcher who allows at least 1.0 homers per start now facing a National League starting pitcher with an ERA in the 3.70 to 4.20 range have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 60 of the last 94 situations (64%) where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-17 |
Nationals -136 v. Braves |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-136 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Nationals (905) versus the Atlanta Braves (906) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and R.A. Dickey. Washington (92-59) has won three straight games with their 7-3 win over the Braves last night. The Nationals have then won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Washington has also now won 5 straight games on the road — and they have won 25 of their last 35 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Roark who is 13-9 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. The right-hander has raised his level of play since the All-Star Break where he has a 7-3 record along with a 3.18 ERA in eleven starts. In his three starts in September, Roark is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 19 innings of work while compiling 23 strikeouts to just 3 walks during that span. Roark has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.84 ERA and a .232 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.90 ERA and .262 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts (sixteen games) at home. The Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Roark on the mound. Furthermore, Roark pitched seven days ago for his last start — and Washington has won 8 of their last 9 road games with Roark pitching with five or six days of rest. He should fare well against this Atlanta team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .206 batting average along with a .264 opponent’s batting average and .580 OPS during that span. Furthermore, the Braves have lost 13 of their last 18 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Atlanta (67-83) now lost four straight games — and they have failed to score more than three runs in six straight games. Not only have the Braves then lost 10 straight home games after failing to score more than three runs in two straight games but they have lost 16 of their last 20 home games after playing at least three straight games after failing to score more than three runs in at least three straight games. Additionally, Atlanta has lost 4 straight games at home — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with R.A. Dickey who is 9-10 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.43 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he owns a 4.56 ERA and .281 opponent’s batting average in seventeen starts as compared to his 4.21 ERA and .261 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. The Braves have lost 4 of their last 5 home games with Dickey on the mound. He faces a Washington team that has won 7 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Nationals have won 8 of these games. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Washington Nationals (905) versus the Atlanta Braves (906) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and R.A. Dickey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-17 |
Nationals v. Braves +1.5 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (962) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Sims and Gio Gonzalez. Washington (91-59) has won two straight games with their 4-2 victory in the first game of this series. The Nationals have now played five straight games that finished Under the Total (due in large part to their cold bats — more on that below) — and they have then lost a decisive 84 of their last 136 games after playing at least their last four games Under the Total. Furthermore, Washington has lost 31 of their last 55 games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Gonzalez who is 14-7 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for immediate regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA bump up to 4.38 and 4.21 respectively moving forward. Furthermore, the left-hander has not been quite as good on the road where he has a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in fifteen starts as compared to his 2.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in fourteen starts at home. Furthermore, the Nationals have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with Gonzalez pitching as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. He faces an Atlanta team that hits lefties well. The Braves score 5.2 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .287 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .794. The Braves have also won 4 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Atlanta (67-82) has won 23 of their last 41 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Braves will be playing their twelfth straight game against NL East rivals tonight — and they have won 25 of their last 43 games after playing at least six straight games against NL East opponents. They give the ball to their rookie pitcher Luke Sims who is 2-5 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season. Sims has been much better at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average in three starts (six games) at home as compared to his 7.40 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average in four starts (five games) on the road. As mentioned above, the Nats’ bats are cold right now as they are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and .623 OPS during that span. Lastly, the Braves are supported by a historical angle specific to Run-Line that has been 69% effective since 1997. Sims is making his first start on the mound since September 2nd — and home underdogs who with a team batting average in the .255 to .269 batting average (Atlanta: .264 batting average) facing a National League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 58 of the last 84 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Atlanta Braves (962) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Sims and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-17 |
Indians +105 v. Angels |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
105 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (925) versus the Los Angeles Angels (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Tyler Skaggs. Cleveland (93-57) has won two straight games again after seeing their twenty-two game winning streak snapped Friday night. The Indians closed out their series with the Royals on Sunday with a 3-2 victory. Cleveland has then won 41 of their last 52 games after a victory. The Indians have also won 6 straight games after an off-day. And in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home, Cleveland has won 9 of these games. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 10-5 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .188 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 3.88 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. Clevinger should be very focused for this game after he endured his worst start of this season against these Angels back on July 25th when he allowed six runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings of work. Over his last four starts, Clevinger has allowed only one earned run in 23 2/3 innings of work while winning all four starts. Cleveland has won 5 of their last 7 road games with Clevinger on the hill. He should fare well against this Angels’ team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .212 batting average along with a .283 On-Base Percentage and .684 OPS over that span.
TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.
|
09-11-17 |
Yankees -138 v. Rays |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (909) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (910) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabbathia and Jake Odorizzi. New York (77-65) has won six of their last eight games with their 10-7 win at Texas yesterday. The Yankees have then won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Bronx Bombers have outhit their opponents by their last two games by eight hits — and they have then won a decisive 16 of their last 18 games on the road after out-hitting their opponents by at least seven hits in each of their last two games. Furthermore, New York has won 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Sabbathia who is 11-5 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.25 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.71 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in ten starts at home. New York has won 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. Additionally, the Yankees have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with Sabathia on the mound after allowing at least five runs in their last game. He should have another good performance against this Tampa Bay team that has is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .230 with a .286 On-Base Percentage and a .686 OPS over that span. Additionally, the Rays have lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Tampa Bay (71-73) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 4-1 win at Boston against the Red Sox. The Rays have lost 16 of their last 24 games after not allowing more than one run in their last game. Now Tampa Bay returns home where they have lost 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 16 games against AL East opponents, the Rays have lost 11 of these games. They counter with Jake Odorizzi who is 8-7 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 4.71 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.41 ERA and .220 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. Tampa Bay has lost 8 of their last 9 home games with Odorizzi on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a hot-hitting New York team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .305 batting average along with a .375 On-Base Percentage and an .883 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Yankees have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 86-21 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB AL East Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (909) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (910) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabbathia and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-17 |
Brewers v. Cubs -117 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-117 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (951) listing both starting pitchers John Lackey and Jimmy Nelson. Chicago (77-63) has won two straight — as well as eight of their last eleven contests — with their 8-2 win at Pittsburgh on Thursday. The Cubs have then won 6 of their last 7 games after a win. Chicago has also won 20 of their last 27 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Cubbies have won 9 of their last 10 games at home in Wrigley Field. And in their last 8 opening games to a new series, Chicago has won 7 of these contests. They give the ball to Lackey who is 11-10 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.02 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP as opposed to his 5.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP when on the road. The Cubs have won 5 straight home games with Lackey on the hill. He should fare well against this cold Brewers team that is scoring just 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .228 batting average along with a .300 On-Base Percentage and .681 OPS over that span. Milwaukee has lost a decisive 15 of their last 17 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. And in their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers, the Brewers have lost 4 of these games.
Milwaukee (72-68) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-1 loss at Cincinnati on Wednesday. The Brewers have now lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. Milwaukee has also lost 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They counter with Jimmy Nelson who is 11-6 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.16 ERA in thirteen starts as compared to his 3.14 ERA in fifteen starts at home. The Brewers have lost 11 of their last 16 road games with Nelson facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, he faces a Cubs team that has won 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 94-22 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (951) listing both starting pitchers John Lackey and Jimmy Nelson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-17 |
Angels -127 v. A's |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-127 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (967) versus the Oakland A’s (968) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Sean Manaea. Los Angeles (72-67) has won six of their last eight games with their 8-7 win in the second game of this series last night. The Angels have then won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Angels have won 12 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 1-4 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.82 ERA along with a 1.40 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road as compared to his 6.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home. Additionally, the Angels have won 5 of their last 7 games with Skaggs facing a team that scored at least five runs in their last game. He faces an Oakland team that has lost 6 of their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, the A’s have lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Oakland (58-80) has now lost eight straight games — so, obviously, they have lost 7 straight games after a loss. The A’s have also lost 10 of their last 11 home games after a loss by one run against a divisional rival. Oakland has also lost 4 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record, the A’s have lost 6 of these games. They counter with Sean Manaea who is 9-9 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.38 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 4.46 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. Oakland has lost 5 of their last 6 games with Manaea pitching on four days of rest. He faces a red-hot Los Angeles team that is scoring 8.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests along with a .292 batting average, .383 On-Base Percentage and an .853 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Angels have won 4 of their last 5 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (967) versus the Oakland A’s (968) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-17 |
Giants v. Padres OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Ty Blach and Travis Wood. San Diego (58-74) snapped their four-game losing streak last night with their 6-3 win over the Giants. The Padres have then seen the Over go 13-4-1 in their last 18 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 19-7-1 in San Diego’s last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Wood who is 3-4 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. Since being picked up by the Padres after being waived by the Royals, the left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 1.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .355 as opposed to his more mild 1.77 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average on the road. Wood’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when he is making the start. He faces a Giants team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (53-81) has lost four of their last five games after their setback last night. The Over is 14-5-1 in the Giants’ last 20 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Ty Blach who is 8-10 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 5.64 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and .312 opponent’s batting average in nine starts (thirteen games) as compared to his 4.01 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts (sixteen games) at home. Additionally, the Giants have played 7 of their last 9 with Blach facing a team with a losing record. He faces a San Diego team that has seen the Over go 13-4-1 in their last 18 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Ty Blach and Travis Wood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-17 |
Cardinals v. Brewers +110 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
110 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (904) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (903) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Carlos Martinez. Milwaukee (68-64) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last night with their 10-2 loss to the Cardinals. The Brewers have bounced-back to win 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while Milwaukee is hitting just .189 over their last five games, they have won 14 of their last 20 games after a five-game span where they failed to hit at least .225. Moving forward, the Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 5 games against fellow NL Central opponents, Milwaukee has won 4 of these contests. They give the ball to Anderson who is 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.15 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. The Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Anderson on the mound. He faces a St. Louis team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have also lost 25 of their last 32 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
St. Louis (66-65) has still lost six of their last nine games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. The Cardinals have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, St. Louis has lost 27 of their last 40 road games again teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Carlos Martinez who is 10-9 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this year. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.78 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts as compared to his 3.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .220 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Cardinals have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Martinez facing a team with a winning record. 25* MLB Getaway Game Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (904) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (903) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Carlos Martinez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-17 |
Giants v. Padres -103 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-103 |
17 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (908) versus the San Francisco Giants (907) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Jeff Samardzija. San Diego (57-72) has lost three straight games with their 6-2 loss in Miami on Sunday. But the Padres return home now after a six-game road trip — and they have won 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road (San Francisco: 21-45 on the road). And while the Giants score only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game, San Diego has won 10 of their last 13 games in the second-half of the season against NL teams that do not score more than 4.0 Runs-Per-Game. They give the ball to Chacin who is 11-9 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been outstanding at home in Petco Park this year where he owns a 1.86 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and .184 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts. And the Padres have won 6 of their last 7 home games with Chacin on the mound against a team with a losing record. He should have continued success against this Giants team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (52-79) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 11-0 loss at Arizona yesterday. The Giants have now lost 13 of their last 16 games against fellow NL West opponents. San Diego is 33-30 at home this year — and San Francisco has lost 36 of their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Giants have lost 19 of their last 26 opening games to a new series. And in their last 7 trips to San Diego, San Fran has lost 5 of these games. They counter with Jeff Samardzija who is 8-12 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. Despite his fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio, the right-hander is giving up too many hard hit balls. His aversion to throwing balls is leading him to groove to many easily hit pitches. Opposing hitters are smacking line drives in 23.7% of their balls-in-play against Samardzija which is a career high for him. Samardzija has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 5.05 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.26 ERA and .266 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Giants have lost 9 of their last 13 games with Samardzija pitching with five days rest. Lastly, the Padres have won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (908) versus the San Francisco Giants (907) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-17 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the Cincinnati Reds (908) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Sal Romano. Cincinnati (53-74) has lost three straight games after their 9-3 loss to the Cubs . The Reds’ pitching is just getting clobbered right now as they have surrendered at least eight runs in four straight games. Cincinnati has then played 7 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in three straight games. The Reds have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss. Furthermore, Cincy has played 8 of ther last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And this Reds team has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss by at least six runs. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 7 straight home games Over the Total at home. They give the ball to Romano who is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.63 ERA along with a 1.74 WHIP and .296 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. He faces a red-hot Cubs team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .297 batting average with a .380 On-Base Percentage and .864 OPS during that span. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Chicago (68-57) has now won five straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win. The Cubs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Over is 7-2-1. They counter with Jake Arrieta who is 13-8 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one earned run at home against the Blue Jays — but Chicago has then played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when Arrieta is coming off a game where he did not allow more than one earned run in his last start. Arrieta has not been as effective on the road either where he has a 3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts as compared to his 3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 road games with Arrieta facing a team with a losing record. Chicago has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Arrieta facing this Reds team. Cincinnati may be struggling with their pitching — but they are swinging good bats right now as they are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .289 batting average along with a .370 On-Base Percentage and .884 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Reds have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the Cincinnati Reds (908) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Sal Romano. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-17 |
Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Gerrit Cole. Los Angeles (87-35) suffered a rare loss yesterday in a 6-1 loss to the Tigers and Justin Verlander. The Dodgers have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Wood who is 14-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been particularly tough on the road where he enjoys a 1.72 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and .201 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his still strong (but not filthy) 2.77 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in ten starts (twelve games) at home. Furthermore, while Wood comes off another strong start where he allowed only one run at home against the White Sox — and the Dodgers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Wood looking to follow up a Quality Start.
Pittsburgh (60-64) looks to build off their 6-3 win over the Cardinals last night. The Pirates have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory. That game finished just below the 9.5 Total (unfortunately for us) — and that was the 28th Under in their last 43 games played in the second-half of the season. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Gerrit Cole who is 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.94 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 4.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. The Pirates have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Cole facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Los Angeles team that has seen their bats cool a bit — they are hitting only .239 with a .381 slugging percentage over their last seven games as compared to their .257 batting average with a .433 slugging percentage for the season. Lastly, the Dodgers have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-17 |
Cardinals v. Pirates +102 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
102 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Mike Leake. Pittsburgh (59-64) snapped a six-game losing streak yesterday with their 6-4 win over the Cardinals in the third game of this series. The Pirates have then won 17 of their last 26 games after a win by at least two runs. Pittsburgh has also won 7 of their last 9 games at home against teams with a winning record. This novelty game will be played at the famous Little League stadium in Williamsport, PA — but I still assign the Pirates home field edge in this game as they will bat last and still enjoy a home crowd advantage despite being 200 miles south of Pittsburgh. In fact, the more intimate surroundings may give the atmosphere more of a playoff-like vibe in favor of the Pirates. Additionally, Pittsburgh have won 6 straight fourth games of a series. They give the ball to Nova who is 10-10 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. The right-hander has pitched much better in front of the home crowd this season where he owns a 2.70 ERA along with a 1.14 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 4.52 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .281 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. The Pirates have won 5 straight home games with Nova on the hill. Pittsburgh has also won 6 of their last 8 games with Nova pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. And in Nova’s last 64 starts when he was favored in the -100 to -150 price range, his teams have won 45 of these contests.
St. Louis (63-60) has lost 26 of their last 38 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Mike Leake who is 7-11 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been good at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts this season — but he sees these numbers rise to a 4.43 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in eleven starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 4 straight road games with Leake on the mound. He faces a Pirates team swinging good bats over their last seven games as they are scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .272 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and a .776 OPS over that span. Lastly, St. Louis has lost 19 of their last 26 games with Leake pitching against NL Central opponents. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (912) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (911) listing both starting pitchers Ivan Nova and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-19-17 |
Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
120 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Chris Sale. New York (65-56) seized a 6-3 lead last night with a four-run 7th inning but then gave up four runs in the bottom of the 7th to fall by a 9-6 score (in a fortunate result for us last night!). The Yankees should bounce-back to play well tonight against their arch rivals as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. New York has lost three straight games to the Red Sox — but they have lost 19 of their last 27 games when playing with triple revenge. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.79 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 5.68 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .254 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. The Yanks have won 5 of their last 7 road games with Sabathia on the mound. He comes off the disabled list tonight after serving the ten-day minimum after dealing with a knee injury. New York has won 8 of their last 10 games when Sabathia is pitching with at least ten days between starts.
Boston (70-51) has won five of their last six games entering this contest. And while the Red Sox have a 1.18 bullpen WHIP this season, the Yankees have won 31 of their last 53 road games against teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.25 or lower. Boston sends out their ace in Chris Sale who is 14-4 with a 2.51 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been quite as good at home with that short left-field porch behind the Green Monster as he sees his ERA rise to a 2.82 mark along with a 0.90 WHIP as compared to his tiny 2.30 ERA and 0.87 WHIP when on the road. The Bronx Bombers only average 0.49 Stolen Bases her game — the Sale’s teams have lost 9 of their last 12 games in the second-half of the season against teams that do not steal more than 0.5 Stolen Bases per game. Furthermore, the Yankees have won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, while these team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking with this play, the Red Sox fall into an empirical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 70% effective over the last five seasons. Sale averages 1.29 walks per start — and home favorites with a slugging percentage no better than .410 (Boston: .397 slugging percentage) with a starting pitcher that does not walk more than 1.75 batters per start now facing an American League starting pitcher with a WHIP in the 1.30 to 1.40 range have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 70 of the last 100 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the New York Yankees (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-18-17 |
Yankees v. Red Sox -118 |
Top |
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Montgomery. New York (65-55) has won four straight games with their 7-5 win over the Mets last night. The Yankees raced out to a 7-0 lead in that game but things got too close for comfort in the 9th inning when the Mets scored four runs before their rally was snuffed out. New York has then lost 11 of their last 12 road games after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four earned runs. The Yankees have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, New York has lost 5 of these games. They give the ball to Montgomery who is 7-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for immediate regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.22 and 4.39 moving forward. Additionally, the left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he owns a 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .243 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Montgomery facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Boston team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Red Sox have also won 15 of their last 21 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Boston (69-51) has won four of their last five games with their 5-4 win over the Cardinals on Wednesday. The Red Sox have then won 9 of their last 11 games after a victory. Boston has also won 7 of their last 9 games after an off day. Furthermore, the Red Sox have won 8 of their last 9 games at home. They counter with Drew Pomeranz who is 12-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this year. The left-hander has been better at home where he has a 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at home as compared to his .141 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. The Red Sox have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Pomeranz on the hill. Lastly, the Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (918) versus the New York Yankees (917) listing both starting pitchers Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-12-17 |
Royals -148 v. White Sox |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (921) versus the Chicago White Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Ian Kennedy and James Shields. Kansas City (57-58) is desperate for a win after their 6-3 loss to the White Sox last night. The Royals remain alive the race for the playoffs in both the AL Central as well as the AL Wild Card race despite losing five straight games as well as ten of their last twelve contests. Kansas City has now played seven straight games that finished Over the Total — and they have then won 39 of their last 62 games after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. The Royals have also won 8 of their last 9 games against fellow teams from the AL Central. And in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home, Kansas City has won 4 of these games. They give the ball to Kennedy who is 4-8 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.30 ERA along with a strong 1.17 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 5.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home. The Royals have won 6 of their last 8 road games with Kennedy on the hill. He faces a White Sox team that has lost 14 of their last 20 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Chicago (45-68) has now won four straight games — but they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also lost 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record, Chicago has lost 5 of these games. They counter with Shields who is 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.60 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 6.46 ERA along with a 1.73 WHIP in six starts. The White Sox have lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Shields facing a team with a losing record. And while the Royals are slumping, don’t blame the offense as they are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .287 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and .784 OPS over that span. Lastly, Kansas City has won 20 of their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (921) versus the Chicago White Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Ian Kennedy and James Shields. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-11-17 |
Indians v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (969) and the Tampa Bay Rays (970) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jacob Faria. Tampa Bay (59-57) won the opening game of this series last night with their 4-1 win over the Indians. The Rays have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win. Tampa Bay has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games at home, the Rays have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to their Faria who is 5-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.56 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Faria comes off a tough-luck loss in his last start where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Brewers — and Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Faria looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should fare well against the cold Cleveland bats that are scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .176 batting average along with a .238 On-Base Percentage and .527 OPS over that span. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cleveland (60-52) has lost four of their last five games after last night’s setback. The Indians are the money-line favorite tonight with Carlos Carrasco on the hill — and they have played a decisive 19 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cleveland’s last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Carrasco has a 10-5 record with a 4.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this year. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 4.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home. The Indians have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Carrasco pitching as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Cleveland has also played 15 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with Carrasco pitching at night. He faces a Tampa Bay team that is not swinging hot bats either. Over their last seven contests, the Rays are scoring only 1.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .197 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and .556 OPS over that span. The Rays have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (969) and the Tampa Bay Rays (970) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jacob Faria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-10-17 |
Royals v. Cardinals -143 |
Top |
6-8 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (922) versus the Kansas City Royals (921) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Jason Hammel. Kansas City (57-56) is in the midst of a series slump having lost five of their last six games after their 8-5 loss to the Cardinals yesterday. The Royals have then lost 5 of their last 7 games are a loss. Now this home-and-home series with their cross-town rivals finishes up tonight with St. Louis look to pull off the four-game sweep. Kansas City has lost 34 of their last 47 games when playing with triple revenge against their opponent. Bad bullpen work has been much of the problem for the Royals as their pen has been saddled with a 6.76 ERA over their last five games. Kansas City has also lost 6 straight games in Interleague play. And in their last 4 games on the road, the Royals have lost all 4 games. They give the ball to Hammel who is 5-9 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.38 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled when on the road where they he has a 4.86 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .302 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 4.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts at home. And while Hammel comes off a solid effort where he allowed three earned runs in 6 1/3 innings at home against the Mariners, Kansas City has the lost 7 of their last 10 games with Hammel on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a red hot Cardinals offense that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .294 batting average along with a .394 On-Base Percentage and .896 OPS over that span. St. Louis has played 29 runs in the first three games of this series. The Cardinals have won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
St. Louis (58-56) has won five straight games — scoring a robust 9.2 Runs-Per-Game over that win streak. Obviously, the Cardinals have won 4 straight games after a victory. St. Louis has also won 8 of their last 10 games at home. They counter with Lance Lynn who is 10-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been very tough as of late as he owns a perfect 4-0 record with a 1.31 ERA over his last six starts. Lynn has been better at home all season where he owns a 2.58 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 3.56 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .213 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Cardinals have won 4 straight games with Lynn facing a team with a winning record. He should fare very well against this Kansas City team that has lost 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Royals have lost 5 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Year with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (922) versus the Kansas City Royals (921) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Jason Hammel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-08-17 |
Yankees +117 v. Blue Jays |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (911) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (912) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happy. New York (59-51) has won two straight games with their 8-1 win over at Cleveland on Sunday. The Yankees have then won 6 of their last 8 games after a win. New York has also won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 5 opening games to a new series, the Yankees have won 4 of these contests. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 9-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.29 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP and .225 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 5.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .254 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. New York has won 5 of their last 6 road games with Sabathia on the mound. He should fare well against this Toronto team that only scores 3.6 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers along with a low .231 batting average with a .302 On-Base Percentage and .684 OPS against lefties. The Blue Jays have lost 11 of their last 14 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Toronto (52-59) has lost two of their last three games with their 7-6 loss at Houston on Sunday. The Blue Jays have then lost 5 of their last 6 games after an off day. Toronto has also lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record, the Blue Jays have lost 5 of these contests. They counter with J.A. Happ who is 4-8 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this year. The left-hander has not been as good at home where he has a 4.25 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home as compared to his 3.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Blue Jays have lost 6 of their last 8 home games with Happ on the hill. Together, these team trends produce our specific 52-15 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB American League East Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (911) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (912) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-17 |
Brewers +103 v. Twins |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (961) versus the Minnesota Twins (962) listing both starting pitchers Brett Suter and Ervin Santana. Milwaukee (59-54) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last night with the loss in Tampa Bay to the Rays. The Brewers have then bounced-back to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, Milwaukee has won 6 of their last 8 home games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Suter who is 2-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.92 ERA in six appearances (four starts) along with a 1.18 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 316 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in eight appearances (six starts) at home. He should fare well against this Minnesota team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while posting a .197 batting average along with a .266 On-Base Percentage and .607 OPS over that span. The Twins have also lost 10 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Minnesota (53-56) has won two of their last three games with their 6-5 win over Texas yesterday. But the Twins have then lost 20 of their last 28 games after a victory. Minnesota has also lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 53 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Twins have lost a decisive 37 of these contests. They counter with Ervin Santana who is 12-7 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.09 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .225 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 2.52 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road. Lastly, the Twins have lost 6 of their last 7 home games with Santana on the mound. Together, these team trends produce our specific 95-34 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (961) versus the Minnesota Twins (962) listing both starting pitchers Brett Suter and Ervin Santana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-17 |
Dodgers v. Mets OVER 9 |
Top |
8-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Steven Matz. New York (49-59) has lost three straight as well as six of their last seven contests with their 7-4 loss to the Dodgers yesterday afternoon. The Mets have now seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Over is 15-4-3 in New York’s last 22 third games of a series. They give the ball to Steven Matz who is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season. The left-hander is struggling — he has not recorded a Quality Start since June 3rd. Matz has been particularly ineffective when pitching at home where he has been saddled with a 9.69 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and a rough .413 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Additionally, the Over is 24-9-5 in the Mets’ last 38 games at home.
Los Angeles (78-32) has now won twelve of their last thirteen contests. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 third games to a series. They counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu who is 3-6 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .293 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in eight starts (and nine games) at home. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Ryu faces a Mets offense that does liven up to score 5.2 Runs-Per-Game when playing at night. Lastly, in the last 4 games between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total all 4 times. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-05-17 |
Brewers v. Rays UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (979) and the Tampa Bay Rays (980) listing both starting pitchers Zack Davies and Alex Cobb. Milwaukee (57-53) has won three of their last four games after taking the opening game of this series last night by a 2-0 score. The Brewers are surviving despite swinging cold bats right now. They have not scored more than four runs in each of their last eight games — and they managed to plate for runners four times just once during that span. Not only has Milwaukee then played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in at least three straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs for at least five straight contests. Additionally, the Brewers have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where four or less combined runs were scored. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in Interleague play. The Brewers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Davies tonight who is 12-5 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. After surviving a horrible April, the right-hander has settled down to pitch quite well albeit under the radar of many. Over his last seven starts, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in five of those occasions — posting a sparkling 2.74 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP over that span. Davies has also been much better away from home for the entire season given his 2.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road as compared to his 6.15 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .304 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Brewers have played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total.
Tampa Bay (57-53) saw their three game winning streak snapped after being shut out last night. The Rays have now played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Rays have not allowed more than four runs in four straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where they did not allow more than four earned runs. They counter with Alex Cobb who is 9-7 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been very tough at home where he has a 2.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 4.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Cobb facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Brewers team that has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Over their last seven games, Milwaukee is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game with a low .194 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .575 over that span. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Tropicana Field, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (979) and the Tampa Bay Rays (980) listing both starting pitchers Zack Davies and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-17 |
Cardinals v. Reds +108 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
108 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (904) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (903) listing both starting pitchers Asher Wojciechowski and Mike Leake. St. Louis (53-55) has lost three of their last five games with their 2-1 loss in Milwaukee yesterday. The Cardinals have then lost 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. St. Louis has also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 6 encounters with the Reds, the Cardinals have lost 5 of these contests. They give the ball to Leake who is 7-9 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for immediate regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.24 and 3.99 respectively moving forward. Leake has also not been as effective when on the road where he has a 3.42 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in nine starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in twelve starts at home. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Leake on the hill. St. Louis has also lost 7 straight games with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Leake is facing his original team that drafted him in the Reds — but his results when facing his first squad are not inspiring. Not only does Leake have a 4.79 ERA overall in his seven career starts against Cincinnati but his ERA explodes to an 8.27 mark in his three career starts in the Reds’ Great American Ballpark.
Cincinnati (44-64) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 6-4 loss at Pittsburgh. The Reds have still won 10 of their last 14 games against fellow NL Central rivals. Cincinnati has also won 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Asher Wojciechowski who is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 34 innings of work this season. The prospect has been quite good pitching out of the bullpen since being recalled from Triple-A — he has only allowed one earned run in 12 2/3 innings over that span. Wojciechowski has struck out 35 batters this season while issuing just eight walks. He also has been much better when pitching at home where he has a 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 6.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average when on the road. He will be facing a cold-hitting Cardinals team that is scoring just 1.9 Runs-Per-Game while hitting .212 with a .271 On-Base Percentage and a .549 OPS over that span. Furthermore, while St. Louis is hitting just .213 over their last five games, they have then lost 12 of their last 14 road games after a five-game span where they did not hit better than .225. Furthermore, St. Louis has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Cardinals have lost 24 of their last 31 games against starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Central Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Cincinnati Reds (904) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (903) listing both starting pitchers Asher Wojciechowski and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-02-17 |
Reds v. Pirates -1.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (901) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Robert Stephenson. Pittsburgh (51-55) looks to bounce-back from a 9-1 loss to the Reds yesterday. The Pirates have won 5 of their last 6 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 6 games at home. They give the ball to Williams who is 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been a bit better at home this season where he owns a 4.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in ten appearances (and seven starts) at home as opposed to his 4.89 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in eleven games (and seven starts) on the road. Furthermore, the Pirates have won 5 of their last 7 games with Williams facing a team that scored at least five runs in their last game. He should fare well against this Cincinnati team that has lost 15 of their 21 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Reds have also lost 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or less.
Cincinnati (43-63) has lost 6 of their last 8 games after a victory — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Reds have also lost 16 of their last 20 road games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. And in Cincinnati’s last 22 road games against teams with a losing record, they have lost 17 of these contests. They counter with Robert Stephenson who is 0-4 with a 7.86 ERA and 2.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has really struggled when away from home given his 10.34 ERA, 2.74 WHIP and .377 opponent’s batting average in eleven appearances on the road (eight starts) as compared to his 5.79 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average in eleven games (seven starts) at home. The Reds have lost 4 straight games with Stephenson facing a team from the NL Central. He faces a Pirates team that has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Reds score 4.6 Runs-Per-Game, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 57% effective over the last five seasons. National League road teams that score at least 4.5 Runs-Per-Game who come off a game where they scored at least 8 runs have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 155 of the last 273 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line of the Year with the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (901) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Robert Stephenson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-31-17 |
Giants v. A's -138 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (918) versus the San Francisco Giants (917) listing both starting pitchers Paul Blackburn and Matt Cain. Oakland (46-59) has won two straight games with their 6-5 win over Minnesota last night. The A’s have then won 13 of their last 19 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Oakland has also won 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the A’s have won 8 of their last 11 games at home. They give the ball to Paul Blackburn who is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where opponent’s are hitting just .182 against him as compared to his .232 opponent’s batting average when on the road. He should fare well against this San Francisco team that has lost 4 straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Giants have lost 5 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
San Francisco (40-66) has lost three straight games after their 6-5 loss to the Dodgers last night in 11 innings. The Giants have then lost 19 of their last 26 games after a loss. San Francisco has also lost 15 of their last 22 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Matt Cain who is 3-9 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.67 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with an 8.14 ERA, 1.99 WHIP and .350 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 3.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. The Giants have lost 23 of their last 31 road games with Cain on the mound — and that includes losing 4 straight road games with Cain facing a team with a losing record. Lastly, the A’s have won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 103-34 combined angle for this situation. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (918) versus the San Francisco Giants (917) listing both starting pitchers Paul Blackburn and Matt Cain. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-31-17 |
Mariners v. Rangers -121 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-121 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (912) versus the Seattle Mariners (911) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez. Texas (50-54) begins this season looking to bounce-back from a 10-6 loss to the Orioles yesterday. The Rangers have then won 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least nine runs in their last game. Texas has also won 39 of their last 59 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They send out Hamels who is 5-1 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .205 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 5.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Rangers have won 22 of their last 27 home games with Hamels on the hill. He should fare well against this slumping Seattle team that is hitting just .237 over their last seven games with a .308 On-Base Percentage and .677 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Mariners have lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Seattle (53-53) has won two straight games with their 9-1 win over the Mets on Sunday. The Mariners have lost 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Seattle won Game Two of their series with the Mets on Saturday by a 3-2 score — and they have then lost 20 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Felix Hernandez who is 5-4 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and .346 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. The Mariners have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Hernandez on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Texas team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .273 batting average along with a .347 On-Base Percentage and .814 OPS during that span. Lastly, the Rangers have won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the Texas Rangers (912) versus the Seattle Mariners (911) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-17 |
Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Los Angeles (77-31) has won seven straight games with their 2-1 win over the Giants yesterday. The Dodgers finish out their ten-game home stand tonight — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 59 home games Under the Total after playing at least five straight games at home. Los Angeles has also played 26 of their last 36 home games Under the Total as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Ryu who is 3-6 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .268 opponent’s batting average in seven starts (eight games) at home as compared to his 4.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .293 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Ryu pitching on five days of rest. He should fare well against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (40-65) has lost four of their last six games. Moving forward, the Giants have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They counter with Madison Bumgarner who is getting the start for this nationally televised game after bumping Matt Cain from the rotation for one day for this appearance. Bumgarner is pitching on his normal rest after throwing 80 pitches in his last start. For his abbreviated season after his stint on the disabled list after that motor bike incident, the left-hander has a 1-4 record along with a 3.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Bumgarner has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. The Giants have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner should be focused to pitch very well tonight. As it is, the Under is 8-3-1 in San Fran’s last 12 roads games when pitching in LA against the Dodgers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-30-17 |
Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (953) and the Philadelphia Phillies (954) listing both starting pitchers R.A. Dickey and Vince Velasquez. Atlanta (48-54) has lost six of their last seven games with their 4-3 loss to the Phillies last night. The Braves have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. Atlanta has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road. They give the ball to Dickey who is 6-7 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. The right-handed knuckleballer has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .258 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last 6 road games with Dickey pitching as an underdog. Dickey faces a red hot Phillies’ offense that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .333 On-Base Percentage and .807 OPS during that span.
Philadelphia (37-64) has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a victory. And while the Braves only strand 6.76 runners on base per game, the Phillies have played 27 of their last 42 games Over the Total in the second-half of the season against teams that do not strand more than 6.9 runners per game. They counter with Vince Velasquez who is 2-6 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled particularly at home where he has a 6.82 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Velasquez on the mound. Lastly, the Braves have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB NL East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (953) and the Philadelphia Phillies (954) listing both starting pitchers R.A. Dickey and Vince Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-17 |
Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 10 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (977) and the Chicago White Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and James Shields. The Cubs (52-47) are playing much better baseball having won nine of their last eleven games with their 7-2 victory over the White Sox last night. The Under is then 13-5-1 in the Cubs’ last 19 games after a win. The Cubbies have also played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes playing eight of their last eleven road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Much of the defending World Series’ success as of late can be attributed to improved starting pitching with Arrieta being one of the key contributors. In his four starts this month, the right-hander has a 2.13 ERA. And over his last two starts on the road, Arrieta has allowed only one earned run in 13 2/3 innings of work. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Arrieta on the hill. He should fare well against this slumping White Sox team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game with a low .251 batting average along with a .290 On-Base Percentage and .656 OPS over their last seven games.
The White Sox (39-58) host the next two games of this four-game home-and-home cross-town series. They have not only played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss but they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in the White Sox’s last 4 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with James Shields who is 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled in his six starts since returning from the disabled list — but he has pitched better at home in Comiskey Park. The White Sox have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home with Shields making the start. It is Shields’ presence on the mound tonight that has helped push the Total to 9.5 to 10 for this contest. But the Cubs hit only .236 against right-handed starting pitchers with a low .307 On-Base Percentage. The Cubs have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB ESPN Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the gam between the Chicago Cubs (977) and the Chicago White Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and James Shields. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-17 |
Orioles v. Rays -122 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (918) versus the Baltimore Orioles (917) listing both starting pitchers Jacob Faria and Wade Miley. Baltimore (48-51) has won six of their last eight games with their 5-0 victory over the Rays last night. That was a good start for the Orioles’ six-game road trip — but they have then lost 21 of their last 30 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Baltimore has also lost 23 of their last 32 games away from home. And in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record, the Orioles have lost 19 of these games. They give the ball to Miley who is 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.82 WHIP this season. The left-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.10 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and .312 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 5.07 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home. The Orioles have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Miley on the mound. He faces a Rays team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Tampa Bay (51-49) has lost five straight games — but they have won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Rays have also won 5 straight games against an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last contest. They counter with Jacob Faria who is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.45 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .190 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 2.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. Tampa Bay has won 6 of their 8 games with their rookie starting pitcher making the start. Faria should pitch well against this Orioles team that has lost 20 of their last 28 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, Baltimore has lost 15 of their last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB American East Game of the Month with the money-line money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (918) versus the Baltimore Orioles (917) listing both starting pitchers Jacob Faria and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-17 |
Orioles v. Rays OVER 9 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (963) and the Tampa Bay Rays (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gaussian and Blake Snell. Baltimore (47-51) looks to build off their 9-7 victory over the Astros yesterday afternoon. The Orioles have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Gausman who is 6-7 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.98 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and .351 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road as compared to his 5.05 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at home. The Orioles have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Gausman pitching as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. And while Gausman comes off a nice outing where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work at home against the Rangers, Baltimore has then played 4 of their lease 5 games Over the Total with Gausman on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Rays team that scores 4.9 Runs-Per-Game at home and who have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Tampa Bay (51-48) has lost four straight games with their 6-5 loss to the Rangers yesterday. The Rays have then played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 11 straight games at home Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 47 games as an underdog, the Rays have played a decisive 30 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Blake Snell who is 0-5 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for things to immediately get even worse with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.48 and 5.32 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either given his 5.40 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.72 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Snell on the hill. He faces a red hot Orioles offense that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .326 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .926 over that span. Lastly, the Orioles have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB AL East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (963) and the Tampa Bay Rays (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gaussian and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-23-17 |
Cardinals v. Cubs -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
130 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Cubs (914) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (913) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Michael Wacha. Chicago (50-46) has won seven of their last eight games with their 3-2 victory over the Cardinals yesterday. The Cubs have won four of those seven games by at least four runs which inspires confidence in this Run-Line play. As it is, Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 games after a victory. The Cubs have also won 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 19 home games against teams with a losing record, Chicago has won 13 of these contests. They send out Quintana who is 5-8 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander was spectacular in his first start with the Cubs after being traded from the White Sox as he allowed no earned runs while striking out 12 in 7 innings at Baltimore. Quintana has been locked-in over his last eight starts where he has produced a 2.30 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP in 47 innings while striking out 57 batters.
St. Louis (47-50) will be playing their tenth game in a row on the road — and they have lost 25 of their last 37 games when having played at least six games away from home. The Cardinals have also lost 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 20 games against NL Central opponents, St. Louis has won 15 of these contests. They counter with Michael Wacha who is 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. But while the right-hander has a strong 2.93 ERA along with a 1.22 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.03 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .291 in his five starts on the road. Additionally, the Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Wacha facing a team with a winning record. That is not a good sign when facing this Cubs team that has won 7 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Chicago has also won 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this play, because the Cubs are hitting only .246 this season, they are supported by a historical angle that has been 71% effective since 1997. Favorites with a batting average no higher than .255 using a starting pitcher who did not surrender an earned run in his last start and now facing a National League starting pitcher with an ERA in the 3.70 to 4.20 range have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 43 of the last 61 situations where these conditions applied (when priced at -1.5 runs in the +135 to -190 price range). 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago Cubs (914) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (913) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-17 |
Tigers v. Twins OVER 10.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (969) and the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Kyle Gibson. Detroit (43-51) has won five of their last seven games with their 6-3 victory in the first game of this series. The Tigers are swinging hot bats: over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .313 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an .884 OPS. The Tigers have played 28 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total. And in their last 18 games against fellow AL Central opponents, the Over is 11-5-2. They send out Zimmermann who is 6-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .307 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 4.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Tigers’ last 4 road games with Zimmermann on the mound. He faces a Twins team that has scored 4.9 Runs-Per-Game this season against right-handed starting pitchers.
Minnesota (48-46) has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss. The Twins’ bullpen has been overworked by pitching 13 innings over their last three games — and they have then played a decisive 17 of their last 20 home games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 13 innings over a three-game stretch. Furthermore, the Over is 15-7-2 in Minnesota’s last 24 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They counter with Kyle Gibson who is 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.76 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been hit hard when at home where he has been saddled with a 7.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and .352 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 5.31 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Over is 10-3-1 in the Twins’ last 14 home games with Gibson on the mound. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Gibson on the mound. Lastly, the Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. 25* MLB AL Central Total Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (969) and the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-17 |
Padres v. Giants OVER 7 |
Top |
12-9 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the San Francisco Giants (914) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Jeff Samardzija. San Diego (41-54) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. The Padres have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also a decisive 19-5-2 in San Diego’s last 26 games against fellow NL West opponents. And in their last 4 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Over is 3-0-1. They give the ball to Cahill who is 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he has a 0.72 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .169 opponent’s batting average in four starts — but those numbers explode to a 5.01 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. That is not a good sign when facing this Giants team that has seen the Over go 4-1-2 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, the Padres have played a decisive 29 of their last 43 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range.
San Francisco (37-60) has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss. The Over is also 5-0-1 in the Giants’ last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-2 in San Francisco’s last 11 home games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 42 home games when listed as a big money-line favorite in the -151 to -200 price range, the Giants have played 28 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Jeff Samardzija who is 4-11 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season. The right-hander was not as effective at home last year for the Giants where he had a 1.28 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.14 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average on the road. This season, Samardjzija has a 1.20 WHIP at home as compared to his 1.15 WHIP when on the road. Of graver concern is that Samardzija is given up too many gopher balls. He has surrendered ten home runs in his last seven starts. Over his last two starts, Samardzija has been saddled with a 7.62 ERA along with a 1.73 WHIP. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Samardzija on the mound. He faces a Padres team that has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the San Francisco Giants (914) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-20-17 |
Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (968) plus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (967) listing both starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Luis Severino. Seattle (48-48) has won six of their last seven games with their 4-1 win at Houston yesterday. The Mariners have then won 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. Seattle has also won 16 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Mariners have won 10 of their last 13 opening games to a new series. And in their last 23 home games as an underdog, Seattle has won 16 of these contests. They send out Hernandez who is 5-3 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been better at home where he has a 3.82 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 5.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and .342 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. Seattle has won 11 of their last 14 home games with King Hernandez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a New York team that has lost 16 of their last 22 games on the road. Additionally, the Yankees have lost 13 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
New York (48-45) has lost three of their last four games with their 6-1 loss in Minnesota yesterday. The Yankees have then lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. New York has also lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road — and that includes losing 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Luis Severino who is 5-4 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.12 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 1.08 WHIP and .220 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. The Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Severino on the mound. He faces a Seattle team that has won 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Lastly, the Yankees have a team batting average of just .262 — and that helps place them into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 76% effective since 1997. Severino comes off a start where he did not allow an earned run in 7 innings of work — and road favorites who do not hit better than .265 using a starting pitcher who did not allow more than one earned run in his last start now facing an American League team with an ERA of 4.20 to 4.70 have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 50 of the last 66 situations (when priced at -1.5 Run-Line in the +160 to -115 price range) in 50 of the last 66 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB American League Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (968) plus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (967) listing both starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-17 |
Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 |
Top |
4-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Colorado Rockies (906) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Richard and Jon Gray. Colorado (55-41) has won three straight games after their 9-7 victory over the Padres yesterday. The Total is elevated to the 11.5 range for this afternoon Getaway Game — but the Rockies have still played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home in Coors Field. Colorado has also played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total in the month of July. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 6 games against NL West opponents. They send out Gray who is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.81 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for immediate improvement in Gray’s numbers with a drop of more than 1 1/2 earned runs allowed per outing with his SIERA and xFIP of 4.47 and 4.03. The right-hander has been much better at home where he enjoys a 2.45 ERA as compared to his 9.00 ERA when on the road. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gray on the mound. He should fare well against this Padres team that has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Diego (40-53) has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. The Padres have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total. And in their last 32 games as an underdog of at least +150 with the money-line, San Diego has played 21 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Clayton Richard who is 5-9 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP in nine starts as compared to his 5.49 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Richard on the mound. He faces a Colorado team that has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Rockies’ last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Colorado Rockies (906) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Richard and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-18-17 |
Dodgers v. White Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Miguel Gonzalez. Chicago (38-52) has lost four straight games after their 7-6 loss to Seattle on Sunday. The White Sox are slumping with their bats — over their last seven games, they are scoring just 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .211 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and a .628 OPS. That is not a good sign when having to face Kershaw tonight. As it is, Chicago is hitting only .198 over their last five games — and they have then played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total after not hitting at least .200 in their last five games. The White Sox have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-2 in Chicago’s last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Gonzalez who is 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.98 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home as compared to his 5.94 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and .313 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gonzalez facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. And in their last 11 games against a right-handed starting pitcher, the Under is 7-2-2.
Los Angeles (64-29) has won nine straight games with their 3-2 win in Miami on Sunday. The Angels have then seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 5 games on the road. And in their last 7 games in Interleague play, the Under is 5-1-1. They give the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw who is 14-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been sensational over his last thirteen starts where he is a perfect 10-0 with a 1.98 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .187 while striking out 115 batters and issues only 15 walks over that span. Kershaw has been more effective on the road where he has a 1.79 ERA in eight starts as comported to his 2.45 ERA in eleven starts at home. The Dodgers have seen the Under go 14-6-1 in their last 21 road games with Kershaw on the mound. Lastly, the White Sox have played 4 straight home games Under the Total in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Miguel Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-17-17 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox -104 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (915) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman. Boston (52-41) snapped a two-game losing streak last night with their 3-0 victory over the Yankees for Sunday Night Baseball. The Red Sox have then won 28 of their last 40 games after dropping two of their last three games. Boston stays at home where they have won 15 of their last 22 games — and they have won 35 of their last 51 home games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 opening games to a new series, Boston has won 5 of these contests. They send out Rodriguez who is 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. The left-hander comes off the disabled list after pitching well last Sunday in his last rehab start where he allowed only one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work. Rodriguez has a strong 1.56 ERA in three starts at home this season as compared to his 4.33 ERA in seven starts on the road. The Red Sox have won 7 of their last 9 home games with Rodriguez facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Blue Jays team that has lost 15 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Toronto (42-49) has lost three of their last four games with their 6-5 loss in Detroit yesterday. The Blue Jays have then lost 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Toronto is hitting just .196 over their last three games — and they have then lost 12 of their last 15 games after failing to hit at least .200 as a team over their last three games. They counter with Marcus Stroman who is 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road as compared to his 2.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their last 9 road games with Stroman facing a team with a winning record. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (915) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-16-17 |
Cardinals v. Pirates +119 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
119 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (960) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (959) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Carlos Martinez. Pittsburgh (43-47) had won six of their last seven games before suffering a 4-0 loss to the Cardinals last night. The Pirates have then won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has won 5 of the last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They send out Williams who is 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been much better at home where he has a 4.54 ERA along with a strong 1.06 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 5.13 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Pirates have won 5 of their last 7 games with Williams on the mound pitching the third game of a series.
St. Louis (43-46) has won three of their last four games after yesterday’s victory — but they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win. The Cardinals have also lost 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Carlos Martinez who is 6-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for some immediate regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.87 and 3.68 moving forward. Additionally, the right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.13 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.90 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Martinez on the mound. Together, these team trends produce our specific 33-11 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB NL Central Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (960) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (959) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Carlos Martinez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-09-17 |
Tigers v. Indians -1.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Indians (924) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (923) listing both starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Michael Fulmer. Detroit (38-48) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests with their 4-0 loss to the Indians yesterday. The Tigers have then lost 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Detroit has also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Fulmer who is 8-6 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP this season. The Tigers have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Fulmer on the mound against teams with a winning record. He faces an Indians team that has won 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cleveland (47-39) has won five of their last seven games — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They counter with Corey Kluber who is 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.60 ERA and .201 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 3.27 ER and .208 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. The Indians have won 21 of their last 29 home games with Kluber facing a team with a losing record. Cleveland has also won 11 of their last 12 games overall when Kluber was matched up against a team with a losing record. Detroit has lost 20 of their last 27 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Tigers have also lost 5 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, while these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game, because the Indians score 4.9 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by a Run-Line specific angle that has been 59% effective since 1997. Home teams that score 4.4 to 4.9 Runs-Per-Game coming off a game where they did not allow more than one run and now face a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 116 of the last 196 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL Central Run-Line of the Year with Cleveland Indians (924) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (923) listing both starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Michael Fulmer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-08-17 |
Reds v. Diamondbacks -132 |
Top |
7-0 |
Loss |
-132 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) versus the Cincinnati Reds (961) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Luis Castillo. Arizona (53-34) looks to build off the momentum of their 6-3 win over the Reds last night. The Diamondbacks have then won 23 of their last 31 games after a victory. Arizona has also won 28 of their last 36 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Walker tonight who is 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he allowed only two runs while striking out eight in 7 innings of work against Colorado — and the Diamondbacks have won 5 straight games with Walker looking to follow up a Quality Start. Arizona has also won 5 of their last 6 games at home with Walker on the mound. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have won 8 of their last 9 games with Walker pitching at night. And in their last 8 games with Walker pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range, Arizona has won all 8 occasions. He should fare well against this Reds team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cincinnati (37-49) has lost four of their last six games — and they have now lost 24 of their last 31 games on the road. The Reds have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home And while the Diamondbacks strand 6.8 runners per game, Cincinnati has lost 29 of their last 40 games against teams that do not strand more than 6.9 runners per game. They counter with Luis Castillo who is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his first three Major League starts this season. The rookie has struggled in his two starts in a hostile environment where he has a 5.06 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .326. That is not a good sign when facing this Arizona team that has won 28 of their last 39 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have won 37 of their last 54 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Television Game of the Year with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) versus the Cincinnati Reds (961) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Luis Castillo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-17 |
Angels v. Rangers -141 |
Top |
0-10 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (920) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Ricky Nolasco. Los Angeles (44-45) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 2-1 win in Minnesota. But the Angels have then lost 7 of their last 9 games after a victory. Los Angeles has also lost 8 of their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Angels have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a losing record. They send out Nolasco who is 4-9 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road where he has a 1.40 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. Los Angeles has lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Nolasco on the mound. Furthermore, the Angels have lost 9 straight games when Nolasco is pitching with five days of rest.
Texas (41-44) has won 9 of their last 13 games against a team that did not score more than two runs in their last game. They snapped their three game losing streak on Wednesday with their 8-2 victory over the Red Sox. The Rangers have won a decisive 39 of their last 58 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also won thirteen of their last seventeen home games against teams with a losing record overall. Additionally, Texas has won 51 of their last 79 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. And while the Rangers may be undermanned tonight with Elvis Andrus on maternity leave and Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo perhaps out after suffering knocks on Wednesday, they still can rely on the strong arm of Cole Hamels. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season. Hamels has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 5.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road. Texas has won 12 of their last 13 home games with Hamels on the hill. Lastly, the Angels have lost 4 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (920) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Ricky Nolasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-17 |
Orioles v. Twins -128 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (966) versus the Baltimore Orioles (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Dylan Bundy. Minnesota (43-41) comes off winning their last series with the Angels but they look to bounce-back from their 2-1 loss to Los Angeles last night. The Twins have won 11 of their last 16 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Minnesota is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .748 over that span. The Twins have also won 27 of their last 46 games played at night. They give the ball to Berrios who is 7-2 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP this season. The right-hander rookie phenom has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 2.51 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and .167 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home as compared to his more modest 4.17 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Twins have won 5 straight games with Berrios facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Baltimore team that has lost 11 straight games against American League teams with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.10 for lower. Furthermore, the Orioles have lost 15 of their last 19 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Baltimore (40-44) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six games after their 4-0 loss in Milwaukee last night. That was the Orioles’ second time over their last eight games where they were shut-out while scoring just 2.38 Runs-Per-Game over that span. Baltimore is also hitting only .215 batting average with a .250 On-Base Percentage and a .589 OPS over their last seven games. The Orioles have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Baltimore has also lost 21 of their last 27 games on the road. And in their last 31 games against teams with a winning record, the Orioles have lost 23 of these games. They counter with Dylan Bundy who is 8-7 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled as of late with a 2-4 record over his last six starts while being saddled with a 6.61 ERA. Buddy has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. The Orioles have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Bundy facing a team with a losing record. Lastly, the Twins have won 7 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (966) versus the Baltimore Orioles (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Dylan Bundy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-17 |
Reds v. Rockies -144 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (908) versus the Cincinnati Reds (907) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Scott Feldman. Colorado (49-37) looks to bounce-back from their 8-1 loss to the Reds last night. The Rockies have lost eleven of their last thirteen games — but ten of those games were on the road. This is Colorado’s third game back at home in Coors Field since June 22nd — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games at home. The Rockies have also won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Colorado has won 14 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Gray who is 1-0 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. The right-hander looked good in his first start since being on the shelf for 2 1/2 months with a stress fracture in his foot has he allowed only two runs in 6 innings of work in Arizona while striking out 10 Diamondback hitters. In his lone start at home this season, Gray allowed only one run in 5 1/3 innings of work against the Dodgers. Last season, Gray was more effective at home where he owned a 4.30 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The deeper sabermetics for Gray were bullish on the young phenom with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.72 and 3.61 respectively. The Rockies have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Gray on the mound. He should fare well against this Reds team that has lost 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cincinnati (36-47) has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a win. The Reds have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Scott Feldman who is 7-5 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The sabermetrics do call for immediate regression given his SIERA and xFIP of 4.43 and 4.08 respectively. The right-hander has also struggled on the road where he has a 4.74 ERA along with a 1.49 WHIP and .298 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. He faces a Colorado team that clubs the baseball at home — the Rockies score 5.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .290 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and .816 OPS in Coors Field. Cincinnati has lost 22 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (908) versus the Cincinnati Reds (907) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Scott Feldman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-17 |
Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9 |
Top |
11-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (969) and the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Yu Darvish. Boston (48-35) has won five games in a row with their 7-5 victory over the Rangers last night. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats right now: over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .308 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .401 and an OPS of .859. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They send out Price who is 3-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road as compared to his 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with Price on the mound. And while Price comes off a solid outing where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work against the Twins, the Red Sox have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start.
Texas (40-43) has now lost two straight games as well as five of their last six games. The Rangers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, not only is the Over 15-5-1 in the Rangers’ last 21 games at home but the Over is also a decisive 37-15-4 in Texas’ last 56 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Yu Darvish who is 6-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for immediate regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.79 moving forward. Dervish has not been nearly as effective at home either where he has a 3.81 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 2.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Over is 5-0-2 in the Rangers’ last 7 home games with Darvish on the hill. Lastly, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (969) and the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-17 |
Giants v. Pirates -115 |
Top |
13-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) versus the San Francisco Giants (951) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Johnny Cueto. San Francisco (37-42) has won two straight games with their 4-0 win over Tampa Bay yesterday. The Pirates have then won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than two earned runs in their last game. Pittsburgh stays at home where they have 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Giants are just 13-30 on the road this season — and they are only scoring 3.8 Runs Per Game. The Pirates have won a decisive 38 of their last 50 games against National League teams that do not score more than 4.0 Runs-Per-Game. They send out a red hot Gerrit Cole who is 6-6 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season. The right-hander endured a rough four-game stretch earlier this year — but he has everything clicking now. Over his last three starts, Cole is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 20 innings while striking out 13 over that stretch. Cole has been more effective at home where he has a 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 4.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. The Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Cole on the mound. He should fare well against this Giants team that has lost 10 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (30-51) have won three straight games as they enter this series after their 5-3 win over Colorado on Wednesday. The Giants have then lost a decisive 44 of their last 63 games after a victory. San Francisco has also lost 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Despite this recent run, this team remains the second worst in baseball — so getting the opportunity to fade them with a favorite priced under -150 is a nice situation. They so send out Johnny Cueto who is 5-7 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective in his nine starts on the road where he has a 4.58 ERA as compared to his 3.74 ERA in seven starts on the road. The Giants have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Cueto facing a team with a losing record. Lastly, San Francisco has lost 11 of their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) versus the San Francisco Giants (951) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-17 |
Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -124 |
Top |
10-4 |
Loss |
-124 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
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At 3:40 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (902) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (901) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Lance Lynn. Arizona (50-29) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last night in their 4-3 loss to the Cardinals — but they have still won six of their last eight contests. The Diamondbacks have won 4 straight games after a loss. Arizona has also won 27 of their last 34 home games against teams with a losing record. They send out Corbin who is 6-7 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP this season. Corbin has been more effective at home this season where he has a 3.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home as compared to his rough 7.84 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .331 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Corbin pitching on the hill.
St. Louis (36-41) has still lost 12 off their last 16 games on the road. The Cardinals have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lance Lynn who is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for immediate regression from the right-hander given his SIERA and xFIP which both project an ERA of 4.51 and 4.63 respectively moving forward. Lynn has not been as effective on the road either where he has been saddled with a 4.41 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. The Cardinals have lost 5 straight games on the road with Lynn on the mound. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have won a decisive 25 of their last 34 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (902) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (901) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-17 |
Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
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At 7:07 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays (964) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley. Toronto (36-40) has lost four of their last five games with their 3-1 loss to the Orioles in the opening game of that series. The Blue Jays have bounced-back to win 10 of their last 14 games after a loss. Additionally, Toronto has won 14 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Blue Jays have won 13 of their last 16 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run against their opponent in that loss. And while Toronto’s bullpen has not allowed an earned run in three straight games, they have then won 31 of their last 40 games after two straight games where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. They send out Stroman who is 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.29 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games at home with Stroman on the mound.
Baltimore (38-38) has won three straight games — but they have lost 4 straight games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Orioles have lost 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Wade Miley who is 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.64 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been solid at home where he has a 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in eight starts — but he sees those numbers rise to a rough 5.45 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Furthermore, Miley is averaging 2.85 walks per start — and that helps place the Orioles into a “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line. Baltimore allows only 0.20 stoles bases per game — but underdogs who did not allow more than a stolen base every two games using a starting pitcher who allows at least 2.75 bases-on-balls per game have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced at +1.5 Runs in the +165 to -135 range) in 40 of the last 58 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Pre-All-Star Break AL East Run-Line of the Year with the Toronto Blue Jays (964) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-26-17 |
Yankees v. White Sox +1.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (962) plus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers David Holmberg and Jordan Montgomery. For the record, I do like the White Sox in this situation as the money-line underdog — but with New York (40-33) has two straight games as well as ten of the last twelve contests with their 7-6 loss to the Rangers yesterday. The Yankees have then lost 7 of their last 9 games after a loss. Furthermore, New York has lost 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Yankees have lost 6 straight games on the road. And in their last 20 road games as a money-line favorite priced at least at -110, New York has lost 14 of these contests. They send out Montgomery who is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective on the road where he had a 1.37 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.15 WHIP and .230 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The deeper sabermetrics also call for immediate regression for Montgomery as both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.49 and 4.60 moving forward. Additionally, the Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Montgomery facing a team with a losing record. That does not bode well when facing this Chicago team that has won 20 of their last 28 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The White Sox are scoring 5.5 runs per game with a .295 batting average against left-handed starting pitchers.
Chicago (32-42) looks to avenge a 9-1 loss to the Yankees back on April 19th in the last meeting between these two teams. The White Sox have then won 28 of their last 46 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run. They look to bounce-back from a 5-3 loss at home to the A’s yesterday. Chicago has won a decisive 52 of their last 90 games after playing at least two straight games at home. They counter with David Holmberg who is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been tough at home where he enjoys a 2.77 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .159. He should pitch well against this slumping Yankees team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. These trends do not take into account the recommended +1.5 Run-Line play. While I do like the White Sox as an underdog money-line play, I think the preferred play is to take the +1.5 Run-Line option with that not being priced higher then -150. Furthermore, the Yankees fall into an empirical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 63% effective over the last five seasons. The Yankees average 1.48 home runs per game — and road favorites who average at least 1.25 home runs per game using a starting pitcher that averages at least 5.0 strikeouts per start (Montgomery: 5.46 K/s start) have then failed to cover the 1.5 Run-Line (as long as that money-line price is +160 to +110 as the Yankees are tonight at -1.5 Run-Line) in 103 of the last 163 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (962) plus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers David Holmberg and Jordan Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-17 |
Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-8 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Mike Leake. Pittsburgh (35-40) has won the opening two games of this series after their 7-3 victory yesterday. The Pirates have then played 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. And despite looking to secure the sweep tonight, this Pirates team is hitting just .158 over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played a decisive 33 of their last 48 games Under the Total when hitting no better than .175 in their last three games. They give the ball to Kuhl who is 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching on the road where he owns a 3.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his rough 7.36 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and .299 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where he enjoyed a 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.03 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Pirates have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Kuhl pitching with four days of rest.
St. Louis (33-40) has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Cardinals have not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have played a decisive 64 of their last 107 home games Under the Total after failing to score at least four runs in three straight contests. Over their last five games, the Cards are hitting just .216 themselves — so this Sunday Night battle on ESPN involves two teams struggling to scratch out base hits. St. Louis counters with Mike Leake who is 5-6 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP this season. St. Louis has played 4 straight games Under the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Pittsburgh team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Pirates have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-17 |
Tigers v. Padres OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (979) and the San Diego Padres (980) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Dinelson Lamet. San Diego (30-44) won the opening game of this series last night by a 1-0 score. The Padres have not allowed more than four runs in five straight games — but they have then played 19 of their last 25 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight contests. San Diego has also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 6-2-1 in the Padres’ last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 7 games in Interleague play, the Over is 5-1-1. They send out their 24-year old rookie Lamet who is 2-2 with a 7.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP this season. Lamet has not been as effective at home in Petco Park where he has been saddled with a 8.10 ERA and .262 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.07 ERA and .222 opponent’s batting average when on the road.
Detroit (32-41) has now lost seven straight games — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games. Additionally, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. Detroit has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Tigers’ bullpen only pitched 1 inning last night — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road gams Over the Total after a game did not pitch more than 1 inning in their last game. They send out Anibal Sanchez who is 0-0 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.96 WHIP this season. The 33-year old veteran was OK in his first start of the season on Monday in what ended up being a 6-2 loss for the Tigers. Sanchez has lost over a MPH on his fastball which helped explain his 5.87 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last season along with the 21 earned runs he surrendered in 21 innings of work out the bullpen for Detroit this season. The right-hander was demoted to the minor leagues for a bit this season where he continued to be hit hard with a 4.60 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work. The Over is 18-6-3 in the Tigers’ last 27 road games with Sanchez on the mound. He faces a San Diego team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Lastly, the Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (979) and the San Diego Padres (980) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Dinelson Lamet. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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