#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - 2 high level defensive teams and 2 offenses that love to run the ball could make for a “shortened” Super Bowl. Seattle’s defense has allowed 33 total points in the playoffs (2 games) and New England allowed 26 total points (3 games). The Seahawks are 4th in YPP allowed, 4th in defensive success rate, 2nd in yards per pass attempt and 1st in yards per rush attempt. They’ve allowed a TD on just 15% of opponent’s possessions (1st in the NFL). They’ll be facing a Patriot offense that has hit a wall in the playoffs. They are averaging just 18 PPG in their 3 post season games, mainly because they final played some defenses with a pulse. In fact, the 3 best defenses the Pats have faced this season were their 3 playoff games vs the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. Seattle is absolutely on the same level as those 3 and arguably the best defense New England will have faced (Seahawks defense is #1 DVOA). During the regular season, the average defense the Patriots faced was ranked 19th in total D. They were averaging 2.40 points per drive during the regular season and that has dropped to 1.24 points per drive which is actually 12th out of the 14 playoff teams (in playoff games). The Pats offensive line has been atrocious in the playoffs giving up 15 sacks in their 3 games. It won’t get any easier here as QB Maye has a bad shoulder and Seattle’s defense who ranks top 10 in sacks per game. Don’t be surprised of they lean heavily on their running game which they’ve done all season (5th in rush percentage). Seattle’s offense loves to run as well ranking 2nd in rush percentage so we look for a lot of ground game here which eats clock and shortens the game. The Seahawk offense has only faced 3 top 10 defenses since week 8, two of those were vs the Rams who although ranked in the top 10 defensive, they were nowhere near that level down the stretch. The other top D they faced was Minnesota who held Seattle to just 3.5 YPP (lowest of the season for Seattle) and 19 offensive points. They won’t go crazy on a New England defense that ranks 7th in YPP allowed and has given up just 1.40 points per drive this season (3rd in the NFL). Lastly, these 2 offenses are among the slowest paced in the NFL ranking 28th and 29th in seconds per play. We’ll grab the Under.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - The Broncos lost starting QB Nix to an ankle injury in the Divisional round and he is done for the season. They now turn to back up Jarrett Stidham who is a 6 year NFL veteran and has been the back up for 3 years in Denver so he’s more than familiar with head coach Sean Payton’s system. We like the fact that the Bronco staff has a full week to get him ready and set up a gameplan and the New England defense really doesn’t know what they are preparing to face. This line has moved too much based on that injury in our opinion. Denver was going to be a 1.5 to 2 point favorite vs New England with Nix at QB and now +4.5? That’s nearly a TD move and let’s face it, Nix is a pretty average QB ranking 25th in completion percentage, 25th in passer rating, and 15th in QBR. This team leans on their defense and that hasn’t changed. They rank #1 in YPP allowed, #2 in YPG allowed and rushing YPG allowed, and #3 in scoring. Denver is also the best pass rushing team in the NFL (sacks per game and sack percentage) and the Pats have really struggled with that so far in the playoffs. After facing a number of poor defenses this year due to their light schedule (worst in the NFL), New England finally faced 2 high level defenses in the Chargers and Texans in the playoffs (the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season) and allowed 10 combined sacks and 16 TFL’s in those games. They’ll struggle to keep QB Maye clean in this one and running on this Denver team is tough as they allow just 96 YPG rushing (2nd in the NFL). Last week Maye had only 168 yards passing and the Pats totaled only 248 yards on 3.9 YPP but benefited from 5 Houston turnovers including a pick 6. The Patriots now go on the road for the first time in the playoffs with Maye making his first ever playoff road start vs one of the best defenses in the league. NFL playoff home dogs of 4 points or more are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years and home teams in the AFC Championship round are 30-15 SU. The Broncos also have an extra day of rest playing last Saturday (Pats played on Sunday) and while that may not seem like a huge deal, teams with the extra rest in the Championship round are 27-17 SU and if they are at home that improves to 21-7. We think this game goes to the wire and we like Denver and the points at home.

#387/388 ASA PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Houston Texans vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the LA Chargers vs New England total Under last week and we see a similar situation this week. That game ended with the Pats winning 16-3 and while we expect Houston’s offense to be better than that, we don’t think this gets into the 40’s. Houston’s defense is better than the Chargers who held the Patriots in check last week. The Texans have the #2 defense in the NFL per DVOA and they’ve allowed more than 21 points in just 3 of their 18 games this season. Houston also leads the NFL in defensive success rate and allows the fewest points per drive. They’ve only allowed points on 27% of their opponents possessions which is also best in the NFL. Offensively, the Texans are pretty average. They put up 30 points last week vs Pittsburgh (30-6 win) but 14 of those points came on defensive scores. They are 25th in YPP on offense and struggle to score TD’s in the redzone with a 47% TD rate which is 4th worst in the league. They will also be without one of their top offensive weapons with WR Nico Collins out for this game. The Pats defense held the Chargers to 3 points on 3.5 YPP and while Houston’s offense should be better here, it’s not a huge step up by any means. The Pats offense is very good but as we’ve discussed in the past, they’ve faced a very weak schedule of defensive teams. The Chargers (last week) were the highest rated D that New England has faced this season and they put up 16 points. Now they take another step up facing a Houston defense that is better than the Chargers. Similar to last week’s New England game, we have 2 slow paced teams as well (21st and 29th in seconds per play) which will limit possessions. This one smells like a 17-14 type game to us and we’ll jump on the Under.

#389/390 ASA PLAY ON Under 45 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Saturday at 8 PM ET - These 2 NFC West rivals faced off twice this season and scored 47 total points in BOTH games combined. In week 1 of the season the Niners topped Seattle on the road 17-13 and then in the final week of the season in a winner take all match up for the division title, Seattle won 13-3. In those 2 games, the offenses combined to average only 287 YPG on just 4.7 YPP. We don’t see anything changing in this match up. Seattle’s defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season. They are rated as the #1 defense in the NFL per DVOA (advanced metric), 1st in opponent’s 3rd down conversion rate (just 32%), 2nd in scoring allowing 17.2 PPG and 2nd in YPP allowed at 4.6. Seattle allowed more than 20 points in a game just 4 times this season. While SF’s offense was potent at times this season, the Seahawks have been their kryptonite as they’ve scored a total of 20 points in their 2 games. The Niners faced 8 teams that were top 10 DVOA defense this year and averaged 19 PPG in those games. They will also be without one of the key weapons as TE Kittle was injured last week @ Philly and is done for the year. On the other side, San Fran’s defense has been up and down all season, however they are peaking right now allowing 13 and 19 points their last 2 games (vs Seattle & Philly) and they held the Seahawks to 26 total points in their 2 games. They’ve allowed 24 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Seattle’s offense loves to run the ball (3rd in rushing attempts per game) and that shouldn’t change here. QB Darnold will go in this one but has an injured oblique to you can bet they’ll try and protect him if they can run the ball and eat clock. They ran it 39 times @ SF a few weeks ago and we see a similar situation here. These teams know each other very well and low scoring games have been the norm. 7 of the last 9 meetings have failed to reach 45 points and this one won’t be any different. Let’s grab the Under.

#385/386 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Not a great night weather wise for the offenses with windchill in the 20’s and 10 to 15 MPH wind with gusts into the 20 MPH range. The Unders have gone 3-2 in the 5 Wild Card games thus far and we expect a grinder here. Outdoor Unders in the Wild Card round are now 52-25 since 2004. Neither offense operates at a high level with the Texans ranking 25th in YPP and the Steelers 21st. Big plays will be few and far between with The Steelers averaged 10.6 plays of 10 or more yards per game (27th in the NFL) and the Texans average 11.2 per game (24th). These 2 teams have the lowest offensive success rates in the postseason, both ranking outside the top 20. Neither team is great at converting on 3rd down with Pittsburgh ranking 15th and Houston 23rd and they reach 3rd down quite often. They both reach 3rd down on right around 50% of their sets of downs ranking 27th and 28th in the NFL. Defensively Houston is elite ranking #1 in total defense and EPA per play while allowing only 1.52 points per drive (2nd in the NFL). Pittsburgh’s total defense numbers aren’t great (25th) but they’ve been able to limit opponents scoring ranking 17th in that category and they give up 2.10 points per drive which is 14th best. Both are efficient defensively ranking in the top 5 in opponents yards per point. We expect Pittsburgh’s offense to have a really tough time moving the ball and putting points on the board in this game. On the other side, while the Steelers defensive numbers overall are great as we mentioned, they faced 7 offenses this year ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in YPP (Houston is 25th) the Steelers allowed an average of 20 PPG in those games. We’ll go Under in this one.

#383 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Chargers defense has been lights out this season and we expect them to keep this game close throughout. LA has allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 10 games. They finished the season top 10 in opponents TD’s per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive. Almost 40% of their opponents drives failed to gain a first down which was tops in the NFL. New England had a stellar season but let’s not forget they faced the easiest schedule in the NFL by far. In fact, per the DVOA metric, the Patriot’s schedule this season was the 3rd easiest in NFL history. They faced THREE teams that ended the year with a winning record and lost 2 of those games splitting with Buffalo and losing vs Pittsburgh. If you look at the top 20 DVOA NFL teams this season (advanced metric) the Patriots played only 6 of those teams (least in the NFL) and their largest margin of victory in any of those games was 5 points. It’s been a great season but this is a fairly inexperienced team that isn’t used to being in the playoffs vs a team that has been in the playoffs and has extra motivation after losing in the Wild Card round last year @ Houston. In fact, Wild Card teams that were in the playoffs last season (LA Chargers) and are underdogs vs teams that were not in the playoffs last year (New England) are 21-2 ATS since 2013 covering by an average of more than 7 PPG. Another strong trend we have going for us here is the QB situation. The Pats Drake Maye has had a great season but he’s never played in a playoff game and Justin Herbert has. Those first time playoff QB’s facing a QB that has been in the playoffs are 20-40 both SU & ATS since 2002. Experience at that position matters this time of year. On top of that, the Patriots have to face a legit high level QB which didn’t happen much this season. In fact, they faced a team’s back up QB on a whopping 61% of their defensive snaps this season which was by far the most in the NFL. The Chargers weakness on offense this year was protecting Herbert. They were solid in run blocking (12th in rushing) but not great in pass blocking. That may cost them down the line but shouldn’t be an big issue here vs a New England defense that finished 24th in pressure rate despite playing the lightest schedule in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, New England thrived on big plays and the Chargers defense was one of the best in the NFL at limiting explosive plays this season. If LA can run the ball and not be one dimensional on offense, they have a great shot to win this game outright. We’re getting more than a FG here and we’ll take the points.

#383/384 ASA PLAY ON Under 46 Points – LA Chargers vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The weather on Sunday night in the Boston area will be cold and windy, not conducive to scoring points. We have 2 top 10 defense facing off here (both total D and scoring D) and LA has allowed more than 20 points just once over their last 10 games while the Patriots have allowed more than 24 points just once in their last 10 games. Over the last 10 New England has allowed an average of 18 PPG and the Chargers have allowed 17 PPG over that same span. LA is ranked 7th in the NFL in defensive EPA and New England 11th. LA has gone Under the total in 11 of their 17 games this season and they’ve only topped 48 points 3 times this season. While New England has been involved in higher scoring games at times this season, much of that was because of their offense and not a porous defense. Problem is, their offense faced a really weak slate of opposing defenses facing only 3 teams with a top 10 D (total defense) and they average rank of the defenses they’ve faced this season is 19th. The Chargers, top 5 total defense, will be the best defensive unit the Pats have faced this season. The New England offense also thrived on creating big plays this season and they are facing a Charger D that ranks 4th in the NFL in explosive plays allowed. With the shaky weather on Sunday night in Boston, we expect both teams to lean heavily on the run game which eats clock. These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL ranking 28th (Chargers) and 30th (Pats) in seconds per play. Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games have gone Under the total at a 68% rate (49-23 to the Under). When the total is set at 41 or other in those games, the Under hits at a 75% rate. We don’t see either team getting to the mid 20’s offensively in this game which leads us to an Under.

#375 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -10.5 over Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two met on November 30th in Charlotte and the Panthers pulled the 31-28 win as a 10 point dog. Despite the loss, the Rams dominated the stat sheet averaging 7.4 YPP (their 4th highest mark of the season) to just 5.8 YPP for the Panthers. LA controlled the trenches as well averaging over 7.0 YPC on the ground to just 4.1 for Carolina. Turnovers were the problem for the Rams as they had 3 giveaways to 0 for the Panthers including a 48 yard pick 6. The Panthers offense, which ranks 25th in the NFL in explosive play rate, had TD’s from 35, 33, and 43 yards out which is unlike them. They also converted 10 of their 18 third and fourth down plays which was also out of the norm for an offense that ranks 25th in third down conversion rate. Even with all of that going right for Carolina, they still only won by 3 points. The Rams were uber efficient on offense. They had 8 possessions for the game and if we take away the possessions where they turned the ball over, LA scored TD’s on 4 of their 5 drives. They lead the NFL in scoring, YPP, and EPA per play so we expect a big day from this offense. Carolina ranks 27th, 28th, and 25th in those key offensive metrics. LA had the 2nd best point differential in the NFL at +172 (behind only Seattle) and Carolina actually has a negative point differential at -69 (23rd in the NFL) making them the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential. They also have negative YPG and YPP margins on the season. Lastly, we’re getting grizzled veteran Rams QB Stafford who has started in 10 playoff games in his career vs Carolina QB Young who has never been in a playoff game. QB’s that have never started in the playoff game vs QB’s that have playoff experience are just 20-40 ATS since 2002. On top of that, teams that win the game outright are 69-11 ATS the last 80 Wildcard games. We don’t see the Panthers winning this game or even keeping it close. This is a high number but warranted and we like the Rams by at least 2 TD’s here.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at NY Giants, Sunday 1pm ET - The Giants have everything to play for here…essentially the 2nd pick in the draft next year so losing is a priority. New York is 3-13 on the year and owns the tiebreaker among the 3-13 teams. A win here could potentially drop them all the way down to the 8th spot. Dallas on the other hand is middle of the pack this season at 7-8-1 and are mainly playing for incentive bonuses or player statistics. QB Dak Prescott currently leads the NFL in total passing yards with WR Pickens and Lamb both top 10 receiving yards, so they’ll likely look to pad stats against a bad Giants defense. The Cowboys put up more yards offensively than any other team in the NFL at 399ypg while averaging 6.2YPP (4th). The Boys will have success moving the football against a Giants D that is 29th in total yards per game allowed at 364ypg and 27th in YPP defense giving up 6.1YPP. The Giants won last week in Las Vegas against a team that has quit on the season and was playing for the #1 pick in next year's draft. The Giants have average offensive statistics on the season ranking 16th in total yards per game and 19th in YPP at 5.4 so they can’t exploit a horrible Cowboys defense which is just as bad as their own. Dallas had a few extra days to prepare for this game and should get a win by a TD or more.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43.5 New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 1pm ET - This is a division game so even though neither team has anything to play for, we still expect the offenses to put up points against the other team’s defense. In watching film from last week’s games one thing is very apparent. The amount of poor tackling and lack of effort defensively is rampant with teams that have nothing to play for. The Falcons head coach Morris is coaching for his job, QB Cousins is making a statement to teams that he can still play and RB Robinson has a shot at some attainable records. The Saints were eliminated a long time ago but have continued to play well with their future QB Tyler Shough who has thrown for 2,125 yards with 9/5 TD/INT ratio while completing 70% of his passes. Last week the Saints put up 423 total yards against the Titans at 8.5YPP. New Orleans has scored 20, 29 and 34 points in the past three games and is averaging 6.1YPP in that same span. The Falcons offense has come alive with Cousins under center in recent weeks with 29, 26 and 27 points in the past three weeks. Atlanta is also averaging 6.1YPP in that 3-game stretch and let’s not forget, one of those games was against a Rams defense that is one of the best in the league. The Saints defense has been playing well in recent games, but the numbers have come against some league’s worst offenses (Titans, Jets, Panthers). The Falcons defense has given up 24 plus points in 8 of their last ten games and haven’t been able to stop anyone of late. Three of the last four meetings in Atlanta has resulted in 50+ points. With both defenses potentially on vacation already and two offenses still clicking, we expect a high scoring game.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers, Saturday 8:00pm ET - The line on this game is telling us who to bet on and it’s the Seahawks. This number opened with the Niners the favorite, yet with more money and tickets on San Francisco it steamed to the Seahawks as the road favorite. The 49ers offense has played light’s out in recent weeks with 37, 48 and 42 points in their previous three games. The problem is the defense for San Francisco has hemorrhaged yards and points in that same 3-game stretch. Seattle rolls into this game on a 6 game winning streak and has been outstanding on the road this season with a 7-1 SU record. The big difference between these two teams is their defenses. San Francisco has been below average in most key metrics for most of the season. They allow the 19th most total yards per game at 339ypg, rate 24th in yards per play allowed at 5.8YPP and get exploited through the air allowing 235 passing yards per game (25th). In their last 3 games the Niners numbers are worse, allowing 353ypg and 6.3YPP. Seattle on the other hand is the #2 overall rated defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allow just 293ypg (6th) at 4.8YPP (1st) while giving up just 18.1ppg on the season. The offenses for both teams have near identical numbers with both top 10 in total yards per game and yards per play with each scoring more than 27ppg. Seattle QB Darnold can struggle when pressured which won’t be the case Saturday. The 49ers are 32nd or last in the league in sack percentage and sacks per game. The edge for Seattle’s defense is the difference here.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams have gone Over in 4 straight games as their offense continues to be a juggernaut. They’ve scored at least 30 points in 7 of their last 9 games and they topped 40 in 3 of those. They lead the NFL in total offense, YPP, and scoring. The Rams have scored a TD on over 35% of their offensive possessions which is the best in the NFL. Atlanta’s D ranks outside the top 20 in opponent’s scoring and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Birds have faced 5 top 10 scoring offenses this year and allowed over 25 PPG in those contests. The Rams will put up points in this one as they do on almost everyone. Can Atlanta score enough to push this over the total? Yes. The Falcons have been solid on offense scoring at least 23 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Kirk Cousins has settled in at QB and had a nice run throwing 5 TD’s in his last 2 games leading the Falcons to 29 and 26 points. Cousins has faced LA Ram head coach McVay 3 times in his career and his teams have averaged 27 PPG in those games. He has a solid running game (8th in the NFL) as well to take the pressure off him. The LA D has allowed at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and with the Falcons offense humming, they’ll do enough on offense to push this Over the total. Perfect conditions in the Dome in Atlanta and this looks like a high scoring game.

#429/430 ASA PLAY ON Over 52.5 Points – Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - 2 explosive offenses and not so great defenses should lead to a very high scoring game in this one. Let’s start with the Niners offense. They haven’t punted since November! Yes you read that correctly. In their last 2 games they’ve scored 85 points on 18 offensive possessions. That includes 10 TD’s, 5 FG’s, a missed FG, an interception, and a fumble. Since QB Purdy returned from an injury, the Niners have gone 5-0 both SU and ATS and they’ve averaged 34.4 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Chicago defense that ranks 25th in total D, 28th in YPP allowed, and the Bears are giving up 2.62 points per drive on the road (30th in the NFL). The SF offense should continue their big time offensive success in this game. On the defensive side, the 49ers have not been great as of late. They have allowed 51 points in their last 2 games and forced only 4 total punts in those 2 games. Those games were vs Tennessee (31st in total offense & 30th in scoring) and Indy with Philip Rivers playing in his first game at QB directly off the couch. Now they are facing a Chicago offense that is averaging 26 PPG (9th in the NFL) and they lead the NFL in rushing success rate. The Bears also average 14 plays per game of more than 10 yards which is the most in the NFL. Looks like perfect weather in Santa Clara on Sunday night and we should be plenty of offensive snaps with both teams in the top 10 in seconds per play. This looks like a game where both offenses will have to “keep up” with the other and a shootout is very likely.

#430 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Niners have a lot to play for. If they win out, they lock up the #1 seed in the NFC and home field all the way through the Super Bowl if they can make it that far. The Super Bowl is being played at the home stadium in Santa Clara. This offense has been lights out averaging nearly 35 PPG over their last 5. They haven’t punted since November! Brock Purdy is back on QB and he is a perfect 5-0 both SU & ATS winning all 5 games by double digits. They are in a quite a battle with the Rams and Seahawks for the NFC West crown. The Bears most likely will win the NFC North as their magic number is 1. They just need 1 win in their final 2 games or 1 loss by Green Bay in their final 2 games. The defense has been poor on the road allowing 29 PPG which doesn’t match up well with SF’s potent offense. They’ll struggle to slow down the San Francisco passing offense which ranks #1 in the NFL in success rate. Chicago’s pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete over 66% of their passes (22nd) and 7.1 yards per pass attempt (28th). The Niners are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite facing a Chicago team that has been outgained by 1.1 YPP on the road and outscored by 4 PPG away from home. These teams have the same record (both 11-4) but San Francisco’s point differential is more than twice that of Chicago (+74 for SF and +33 for the Bears). On top of that, the Niners have a -4 turnover differential on the season while Chicago is +21 (by far the best in the NFL) yet they have the same record. That speaks volumes as to how much better SF is. If San Fran doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch here, they win this game by more than a TD.

#422 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +6 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We faded the Bucs last week and picked up a win and they continue to be priced as if they are much better than they actually are. We know they “need to” win as they battle for the NFC South crown but throw that out the window. Often times that doesn’t matter and it’s already priced into the number. In fact, in the final 2 weeks of the regular season, teams that have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive vs teams that have been eliminated have been a big time money burner. Those “have to” win teams are 69-109 ATS dating back to 1990 including 0-1 this year with Minnesota beating Detroit on Xmas day as an underdog. Tampa continues to be overpriced as they’ve now lost 7 straight ATS and 6 of their last 7 SU yet they are nearly a TD favorite on the road here? Their only outright win since October was at home vs Arizona and the Bucs were outgained 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in that win. The defense hasn’t been good (27th in YPP allowed) and the offense has tanked since October. Over their past 9 games, the Buccaneers are averaging 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the league ahead of only Cleveland, NYJ, and Las Vegas. They haven’t been explosive on that side of the ball gaining 10 or more yards on just 21% of their passing plays over that span which is 30th in the league. Miami is off back to back losses after winning 4 straight. We faded them last week taking Cincinnati who was off a shutout loss. The score was lopsided but the Fins were only outgained by 18 yards and the YPP numbers were dead even. We look for Miami to play well in their home finale coming off that loss. New QB Ewers now has a few weeks of practice and a game under his belt so improvement is expected. The betting splits are as we expected here with almost 60% of the wagers on the Bucs yet more than 60% of the money on Miami which speaks volumes. Even if the Dolphins don’t come out on top in this game, we look for it to be close so taking the points is the way to go.

#411/412 ASA PLAY ON Under 39.5 Points – Houston Texans vs LA Chargers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This one has the makings of a playoff type game and we like the Under with 2 high level defensive teams. Houston needs a win and they are then locked into the playoffs. The Chargers are already in but still fighting for the AFC West title with the Denver Broncos. These defenses are ranked 1st (Houston) and 3rd in the NFL in total defense and both our top 8 DVOA defenses. LA has allowed 19 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 including vs Dallas (top 5 scoring offense) and KC when Mahomes was still under center. The Houston defense leads the NFL allowing only 16 PPG and they’ve held all but 2 teams to 21 points or less this season. Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring and the explosive plays have not been there for either team. The Chargers have gained 10 or more yards on less than 17% of their plays over the past six weeks, 29th in the league. Houston has gained 10 or more yards on 17.5% of their plays which is 27th in the league. LA has run the ball a lot since QB Herbert injured his hand a few weeks ago. In the last 3 games they’ve run the ball on almost 55% of their offensive snaps. Houston passes the ball more often, however they are playing into the 6th best pass defense in the NFL as the Chargers allow only 179 YPG passing. Both offenses have struggled to convert red zone trips into TD’s with both in the bottom 6 in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage (TD only). Lastly, both offenses are slow paced with LA ranking 31st in seconds per play and Houston ranking 22nd. Defenses dominate here and we’re on the Under

ASA NFL play on OVER 43 Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30pm ET - The Detroit defense, specifically their secondary, has been atrocious the past few weeks and it’s led to the Lions allowing 27 or more points in 5 straight games, 30+ in three of those. Minnesota had found a groove with their offense in two straight games putting up 31 and 34 points against the Commanders and Cowboys, then QB McCarthy got hurt last week and they managed 16 against the Giants. The bright spot for Minnesota is the fact that QB Brosmer looked much better last week than he did in his previous start. Brosmer was 7/9 for 52 yards and didn’t turn the football over. Let’s not forget, the first meeting between these two teams resulted in 51 total points and then QB McCarthy wasn’t playing well and went 14/25 for 143 yards. Detroit is going to score in this one with their offense that averages 379 total yards per game (3rd) at 6.3YPP (2nd). The Lions are scoring 30.1ppg on the season which is 2nd most in the league. The Lions with Dan Campbell/Goff typically respond well off a loss and with their season on life support we expect a solid offensive showing in this one. These two rivals have combined for 50 or more points in 7 of the last eight meetings. Bet OVER.

ASA NFL play on: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 pm ET - There is only one way to bet this game and that’s the 49ers or nothing at all. The computer analytics tell a different story on this game than the actual numbers. The Colts season long statistics would have you on them in this game as an underdog, but the QB situation mitigates that advantage. Phillip Rivers is a great story for us old guys, but the reality is that he’s 44, can’t move and has no arm strength. Last week the Colts managed just 220 yards total at 3.8YPP. Rivers had 120 yards passing at 4.4 yards per attempt. The 49ers have game film on Rivers now and know just how limited he is and D-coordinator, Saleh will have a great game plan for him tonight. The Colts defense played above expectations last week in Seattle but still allowed 6 scoring drives in the game but the Seahawks converted FG’s instead of TD’s. San Francisco is getting healthy and it’s starting to show offensively. They put up 26 points two weeks ago against a good Browns defense in Cleveland and 37 last week against the Titans. San Francisco has won 4 straight games, all by double-digits and tonight we expect a win by 7 or more points by the visitor.

#126 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -7 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a 7 point loss @ LA Rams last weekend and this team has been lights out in this situation. They are a perfect 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS coming off a SU loss. They blew a 10 point lead in that game and in head coach Dan Campbell’s career, his teams are 11-3 ATS the week following a loss if his team blows a 7+ point lead. Right now the Lions sit outside the playoffs and this is their home finale making this a near must win with 2 division road games on deck (@ Minnesota & @ Chicago). They catch Pittsburgh in a rough spot traveling on a short week off a Monday night win over Miami. We were on the Steelers in that game and felt Miami would have trouble in the freezing cold weather (10 degree windchill) and we were dead on as the Fins looked like they quit in the 2nd half. The Steelers have not been great in this spot going 0-4 SU and ATS on short rest dating back to the start of last season. This game is MUCH bigger for Detroit as Pittsburgh holds a 1 game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and while a win here would be great, this division will most likely come down to the final weekend when the Steelers host the Ravens. They are 8-6 on the season but Pitt has a negative YPG and YPP differential. They rank 27th in total offense and 28th in total defense. The Steelers will most likely be without TJ Watt again this week which is great news for Detroit’s passing game that ranks 3rd in the NFL. The Lions have 5 home wins this year, all by at least 2 TD’s with an average margin of +18 PPG in those wins. Detroit is averaging 33 PPG at home this season and we don’t see Pittsburgh’s offense being able to keep pace. We’ll lay it.

#122 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +3 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention so this is a play for pride situation. We think the Cardinals have a much better chance of playing well in this game at home. Atlanta is coming off a division win @ Tampa Bay kicking a FG as time expired for the 1 point win. Now they are on the road for the 2nd straight week, in a meaningless game, with a prime time Monday night home game on deck with the Rams. We see the Falcons having trouble getting “up” and playing well in this game. Arizona will be hungry for a win at home after losing 6 in a row. They’ve played a brutally tough schedule this year (2nd most difficult SOS to date) and their 6 game losing streak came at the hands of Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, LA Rams, and Houston. They’ve been very competitive with 7 of their 11 losses coming by 1 score. For comparison’s sake, their game @ Tampa a few weeks ago (a 3 point loss) the Cards were +4. Last week Atlanta was +6.5 @ Tampa and now they are laying a FG @ Arizona on the road. In a few of their recent home games Arizona was +3.5 vs San Francisco and +2.5 vs Jacksonville. As you can see, we’re getting some solid line value with the Cardinals at +3 in this game. These 2 teams have faced off 10 times since 2009 and the home team has won all of those games. Atlanta has been a road favorite 3 times this season and lost all 3 of those games outright including @ NY Jets. Going back further the Falcons are just 5-15-1 ATS their last 21 road games as a favorite. Let’s grab the points with Arizona.

#116 ASA PLAY ON Carolina Panthers +3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - TB continues to be priced as if they are a solid team which isn’t the case right now. They’ve lost 6 in a row vs the spread losing 5 of those 6 outright. Their only win during that stretch was a 3 point win at home vs Arizona in a game the Cards outgained the Bucs by more than 100 yards. Tampa has now been outgained in 9 of their last 10 games. They’ve lost 3 games outright as a favorite just since November 8th. They are facing a Carolina team that lost @ New Orleans last week and the Panthers are 6-0 ATS this year coming off a loss. As a dog, the Panthers have beaten the Rams, Packers, Cowboys, Dolphins and Falcons all outright. Carolina is the better running team (9th in the NFL) with the better defense. Comparing the stats of these 2 NFC South rivals, the Panthers have YPG, YPP, YP rush, and YP pass attempt differentials. This game and their 2nd meeting in the season finale will decide who wins the NFC South (both teams currently 7-7). Hard to imagine saying this, but we trust Carolina right now more than Tampa Bay and we’re getting points at home. We’ll take it.

ASA NFL play on Washington Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 5pm ET - We will grab the points with the Division home dog in this one and expect a much closer game than what is being suggested by the oddsmakers. Let’s not be fooled by the Eagles offensive outburst against the Raiders last week when they put up 31-points against a team that’s quit on the season. Philadelphia is still the same offense that averaged just 16ppg over their previous five games, topping 20 just once. Excluding the Raiders game, the Eagles averaged just 5.2YPP in their previous 5 games and have the 24th rated EPA since week 10. Washington has certainly underachieved this season but have dealt with injuries (QB Daniels) but we are betting they’ll be up for this division rival that knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago in a blowout, 55-23. The Commanders didn’t quit last week in their road win over the Giants 29-21 and will play at another level for this week’s opponent. The Eagles are 13-17 ATS last 30 as a road chalk and the Commanders are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Philly. Teams off shutout wins are typically a bet against which has us on the home dog here.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1 -115 vs. LA Rams, 8:15pm ET - It’s tough to beat a team twice in the same season, especially when the margin between these two teams is so fine. We grade the Rams as the best team in the NFL but only so slightly over the Seahawks. This scenario screams Seattle. Playing with revenge, at home off a horrible showing and playing for a share of the division lead. In the first meeting between these two teams the Rams won 21-19 but Seattle missed a game winning FG at the end of regulation and Hawks QB Darnold threw 4 INT’s. Seattle outgained the Rams 414 to 249 in total yards and 5.2YPP to 4.9YPP. Seattle is the much healthier team right now as the Rams will likely be without TD machine WR Adams who injured his hamstring on Sunday in their win over the Lions. Statistically there isn’t much that separates these two teams, so it comes down to situational advantages and line value on the home team. Back Seattle in this one.

#484 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Warm weather team Miami will struggle on Monday night with the temps in Pittsburgh around 15 degrees at kick with a windchill in the single digits. Miami QB Tagovailoa has 1 career win when the temperature is below 45 degrees. That win was last week vs the hopeless NY Jets and the temp at kickoff for that game was 42 degrees a far cry from what it will be like in Pittsburgh Monday night. The Fins are getting some praise for their turnaround winning 5 of their last 6 after starting the season 1-6. However, let’s keep in mind who they’ve beaten during this stretch. 4 of their 5 wins during this streak were vs Jets, Saints, Commanders, and Falcons. Those 4 teams have a combined record of 16-40. The one impressive win for the Dolphins over the last few months was at home vs the Bills which was a very poor spot for Buffalo coming off their big win over KC the week before. The Bills outgained Miami in that loss but had 3 turnovers. This is a huge home game for the Steelers who have a half game lead over Baltimore in the AFC North. Pitt is coming off a 27-22 win @ Baltimore last weekend despite running 26 fewer offensive snaps. They outgained the Ravens 6.2 to 5.5 on a YPP basis. Miami is 2-4 on the road this season with wins over the Jets & Falcons. Pittsburgh is 4-3 at home this year with all 3 losses coming vs high level opponents (Seattle, Green Bay, and Buffalo). They’ve handled all of their lower level opponents at home and also have a win here vs Indy when the Colts were at full strength. These 2 teams have the same YPP margin but the Steelers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (12th SOS to 29th for Miami). Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is nearly perfect on Monday nights with an 11-1 SU record and we like that to get the win and cover on this COLD night in the Steel City.

#480 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -11.5 over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games and ALL 5 of those wins have come by double-digits. San Francisco is in a favorable scheduling situation coming off a bye and catching the Titans coming off their 2nd win of the season, which was on the road against Cleveland. The Browns were +9 FD’s, had 412 total yards to the Titans 292YDS, averaged 6.6YPP compared to Tennessee’s 4.6YPP. Coincidentally, the Niners played the Browns in Cleveland the week before their bye and beat the Browns 26-8. The 49ers suffered several key injuries to their offense early on but are now getting healthy and they’ve been much better at home than on the road this season. The defense for the 49ers is 11th in DVOA metrics and the last two similar offenses they’ve faced (Browns, Panthers) they held to single digits. Tennessee is the worst overall defense in terms of efficiency and have the 3rd worst offensive DVOA rating in the NFL. Looking at comparative lines, the Titans were +14.5 at Indianapolis, +10 at home against the Chargers, +13 at home against the Seahawks which tells us this line is not a premium price. Lay it with the 49ers in a blowout.

#463 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -1 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a rematch from earlier in the season where the Pats upset Buffalo on the road 23-20 as 8 point underdogs. That game basically came down to turnovers as the yardage was dead even (both put up 6 YPP) but the Bills had 3 giveaways (1 for New England). 2 of the Bills turnovers came inside Patriot territory and the other was at their only 7 yard line which led to points for New England. This falls into a solid system that has cashed at almost 70% of the last 10 years. That’s simply taking a division road favorite in the 2nd meeting of the season if they lost the first meeting outright as a home favorite. That spot is 22-10 ATS. If the Pats win this game they clinch the AFC East. If Buffalo wins, they move to within 1 game of the Patriots and the 2 teams will have then split their season meetings leading to a free for all down the stretch. While the Pats are 11-2, we’re still not quite sure how good this team really is. They’ve played, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. Besides Buffalo, they’ve faced only 3 teams that are currently at .500 or above and all of those teams are 7-6 (Tampa, Carolina, and Pittsburgh). The combined record of the teams they’ve faced this season is 69-103! Both of their losses have come at home vs the Raiders and Steelers. Despite facing the much easier schedule, New England’s YPG and YPP margins are almost identical to Buffalo. The Bills have been in this spot fighting for a division title and have won the AFC East 5 straight years and they have won 27 of their last 34 division games. New England is a young team that hasn’t been in this spot. We simply need Buffalo to win this game and we think they get it done on Sunday.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Teams coming of shutout losses have been money in the bank the following week. It’s happened 4 times this season and they teams that were shutout were 4-0 ATS the next week. Long term, over the last 10+ seasons, this situation has cashed at 72%. The Commanders were blanked @ Minnesota last week 31-0 as 2 point favorites! Now they go from being favored @ Minnesota to getting nearly a FG @ NYG simply based on their shutout loss. This is an unfamiliar role for the Giants as they are 2-11 and have not been favored in a single game this season. Not only is NY not used to the favorite role, they have been terrible when laying points. They were a favorite just once last season and lost that game outright and going back to the start of the 2017 season they are 7-14 ATS as a chalk. Washington has won 3 straight in this series and topped NYG 21-6 in their first meeting this year. The Commanders controlled the trenches putting up 220 yards rushing to just 74 for the Giants. We don’t see anything changing here as Washington runs the ball well (4th in the NFL in rushing YPG) while the Giants are the worst rush D in the league 155 YPG on a whopping 5.8 YPC. Veteran QB Mariota will be back under center for Washington with Jayden Daniels getting injured (again) last week. No problem as Mariota has already started 5 games this year for the Commanders. Ugly game here with 2 teams who have a combined record of 5-21 but lets plug our nose and take the dog.

#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The forecast in KC calls for temps in the teens with windchills possibly in the single digits at game time. Not ideal for scoring to say the least. LA QB Herbert is dealing with a broken hand and last week’s game plan vs Philadelphia was very conservative with 38 runs and just 26 pass attempts. We expect to see the same type of offense in this game. The Chargers averaged just 3.9 YPP vs the Eagles and that included a 60 yard pass play. Take that out and LA was closer to 3.0 YPP. KC played host to Houston and they struggled as well offensively averaging only 4.3 YPP while putting up only 10 points. The Chiefs defense was stellar holding Houston to 4.1 YPP and in the 2nd half the Texans had 8 offensive possessions and 5 of those were 3 and outs. KC has now gone Under the total in 5 straight games and they are 9-4 to the Under this season. We expect both defensive lines to control this game as the offensive lines are in flux. The Chargers Oline is just bad with the 30th impact grade and KC has injuries up front with their staring RT, RG, and LT all out. LA is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and the Chiefs rank middle of the pack so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. Both defenses rank in the top 10 in PPG allowed. LA has allowed 1 team to top 20 points in their last 6 games and KC’s D has been lights out at home allowing just 14.9 PPG this season. Let’s grab the Under in this one.

ASA play on Atlanta Falcons +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15pm ET - The Falcons lost badly last week to Seattle, but the Seahawks are literally one of the 3 best teams in the NFL and the Bucs are not. Prior to last week’s blowout loss the Falcons had played in 4 of five games decided by 6-points or less and the other game they beat the Saints 24-10. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss to the same Saints team and are on a current 1-4 SU streak themselves but somehow the Bucs are still viewed as a ‘good’ team. How can a team be favored when they own a negative yards per play differential on the season and a negative scoring differential per game of -2.0ppg. Atlanta has a negative average margin of victory of -4.7ppg on the season but their road differential p/game is only -2.9ppg. The Bucs have failed to cover 5 straight games and are averaging just 4.4YPP on the past 7 games. Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers is 7-20 ATS as a home favorite in his last 27. The last 5 meetings have been tight between these two teams and we expect another field goal game in this one.

#145/146 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs LA Chargers at 8:15 PM ET - We look for both teams to lean on their running game in this one which should shorten this game. They are already 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (27th and 31st in seconds per play) so the possessions will be limited. The Eagles run the ball on almost 47% of snaps which is 7th in the NFL. LAC QB Herbert had surgery this week on a broken hand so they will most likely be careful with him. Starting RB Hampton also returns for LA (hasn’t played since early October) which could lend itself to more attempts in the running game. On top of that, Philly was shredded on the ground last week vs Chicago (allowed almost 300 yards rushing) and they rank 24th vs the run this season. We expect the Eagle D to come in with a chip on their shoulder here as well after that performance vs Chicago. They have held 6 straight opponents to 24 points or less that that includes games vs Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas, and Detroit, all top 10 scoring offenses. The LA defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in total D and they don’t give up big plays allowing just 2.4 plays of 20+ yards per game (best in the NFL). They’ve allowed 20 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and during that stretch they lead the NFL in defensive 3rd down conversion rate (allowing just 26%). 6 of the last 9 MNF games have gone Under and we’ll call for another low scoring game.

#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Under 40.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This total is set very low but we still expect this one to stay Under. These 2 rivals met a few weeks ago with Denver winning that game 10-7 and neither team averaged 4.0 YPP. Las Vegas only had 188 total yards in the game while Denver had 220. It was a slow paced game with Denver running 55 total plays and Las Vegas running 52. To put that in perspective, the Steelers average the fewest plays per game in the NFL at 55. There were almost as many punts (15) as first downs (20) in that game. As bad as the Raiders are on offense ranking 30th in YPG, YPP, and 31st in scoring, their defense is solid. They rank 10th in YPP allowed and 39% of possessions facing this LV D have failed to gain a first down (3rd best in the NFL). The Denver offense is average at best ranking 14th in offensive DVOA and they’ve only played 3 games this year vs teams ranked in the top 12 in YPP allowed and scored 10, 15, and 20 points in those games. The Las Vegas offense has been poor all season ranking 31st in DVOA and they’ve topped 20 points once in the last 8 games. They’ve been held to 14 or less in 5 of their last 8. They are facing one of the elite D’s in the NFL as Denver allows 4.8 YPP (1st) and 18 PPG (4th). As bad as they’ve been on the season, they’ve been even worse as of late averaging just 212 YPG and 11.7 PPG over their last 4. Another grinder in the AFC West leads to an Under.

#127/128 ASA PLAY ON Under 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These arch rivals tend to play low scoring games and we expect that will be the case again on Sunday. Only 1 of the last 10 meetings has topped 42 points and the average total points scored over those 10 games in just 34. We don’t anticipate many possessions in this game as neither team plays up tempo with the Steelers ranking dead last in the NFL in plays per game and the Ravens rank 29th in that stat. Baltimore QB Jackson is still not 100% and the offense hasn’t been all that great since his return. In his 4 starts since getting back from injury, the Ravens have averaged only 314 YPG and Jackson has been a threat on the ground averaging only 21 YPG rushing on barely 3 YPC during that stretch. Since his return Baltimore ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA passing offense. This offense just isn’t the same without his threat to run. Defensively this team has turned a corner. After allowing 32 PPG over their first 6 games, they have since allowed just 16.5 PPG over their last 6 games. Pittsburgh’s offense is one of the least explosive in the NFL. Over the last 6 games they rank 29th in EPA passing offense and for the season only 17% of their plays average 10 or more yards (27th in the NFL). They average less than 10 plays per game that gain 10 or more yards which is only ahead of the Cleveland Browns. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 games and with huge division deciding who sits in 1st place, we look for a low scoring, defensive battle.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Seattle has been held under 26 points only once in their last 6 games and that was vs a very good LA Rams defense. They are averaging 29 PPG on the season which is 4th in the NFL. Last week they scored 26 vs Minnesota but they held the Vikings scoreless so there was no need to score more than that. The Seattle offense wasn’t pushed to score at all last week. We think they’ll be pushed to score this week vs Atlanta. Teams that come off shutout wins tend to go Over the following week as we usually get a lower total than we should in that case. In fact, NFL road teams who pitched a home shutout the previous week are 13-1 to the Over since 2017. Atlanta averages 23 PPG at home this season and they’ve put up at least 23 points in 5 straight games. They started the season going Under the Total in 6 of their first 7 games but the Falcons have since gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games. QB Kirk Cousins is getting comfortable and has been solid the last 2 weeks in his starting role with 433 yards passing and completing over 66% of his passes. The Falcons have scored 48 points in those 2 Cousins starts. The Atlanta defense was solid early in the year but they’ve now allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only team not reaching that number being the Saints who are 30th in scoring. Seattle games are averaging 47 total points this season while Atlanta games are averaging 43 total points but in home games the Falcons are averaging 49 total points. Perfect conditions for scoring in the dome and we like the Over.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -3 over Dallas Cowboys, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value on the Lions here. They are favored by 3 points vs the Cowboys, which is the same number they were favored by vs Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. However the Packers rate 5th in the NFL per DVOA while the Cowboys are 16th. Based on that alone this line should be higher. Detroit has fallen out of the top 7 in the NFC and would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Even with that, they are still rated as the 4th best team in the NFL per DVOA behind only Seattle, LA Rams, and Indianapolis. We’re getting the Lions at home off a loss which has been money in the bank. They are 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS the game following their last 14 SU losses. In their 31-24 loss to GB on Thursday, the stats were nearly dead even across the board, with the difference in the game being 4th down conversions. The Packers were 3 for 3 on 4th down including 2 TD’s while Detroit was 0 for 2, both in GB territory taking potential points off the board. We expect a nice bounce back here from Detroit in a huge game before they go on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Dallas has won 3 straight, 2 at home, but their road results haven’t been great. They have just 2 road wins this year @ NY Jets and @ Las Vegas, arguably the 2 worst teams in the NFL. When they’ve had to step up vs decent teams, the Boys lost by 4 @ Philly, by 17 @ Chicago, by 3 @ Carolina, and by 20 @ Denver. They have a negative YPG, YPP, and point differential away from home this season. We’ll lay the FG with the Lions.

#483 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +7.5 over New England Patriots, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Jaxson Dart will be back at QB for the Giants here. NY is 2-10 on the season but they’ve been very competitive for the most part. They have solid wins over the Chargers and Eagles and tight, one score losses vs Lions, Packers, Broncos, Cowboys, and Bears. They are 4-1 ATS this season when tabbed a dog of 7 or more. Offensively they’ve been very solid since Dart took over averaging 25 PPG their last 7 along with ranking 2nd in the NFL in offensive EPA during that stretch. They’ve also converted almost 48% of their 3rd downs during that 7 game span which is tops in the NFL for that time period. They’ve actually led in the 4th quarter in half of their losses this season (5). The Pats sit at 10-2 but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far while their opponent tonight, the Giants, have played the most difficult schedule. They’ve only been favored by a TD or more 3 times this season and they are 1-2 ATS in those games. 6 of their 10 wins have come by a TD or less. Despite their record, New England only ranks as the 17th best team in the NFL per DVOA, only 6 spots ahead of the GMen. The Pats overall defensive numbers are solid, however they rank just 27th defensive DVOA so they are overrated for sure on that side of the ball. Offensively the Patriots will be without 2 starting offensive lineman which isn’t great for a team that already has allowed 37 sacks this season (3rd most in the NFL). The Giants have a solid defensive front and should cause problems for the Pats who only average 3.9 YPC (27th in the NFL). Too many points here as we expect this one to be tight.

#482 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +6.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Definite buy low, sell high spot here. The Broncos travel across the country with an 8 game winning streak in pocket. Meanwhile, the Commanders have lost 6 in a row. Despite that, this spread was 6.5 and had dropped to 5.5. The Broncos haven’t been dominant very often this season and they trailed in each of their last 8 games and turned them into wins (most of them close). They are the first team since 1980 that won 8 in a row despite trailing in each. Overall, their wins (and losses) for the most part have been close. In fact, of their 9 wins this season, 7 have been decided by 1 score and 6 by 4 points or less. Their road games have all been decided by 4 points or less and they’ve struggled to put away bad teams at times beating the Jets by 2, Titans by 8, Giants by 1, and Raiders by 3. It looks like Marcus Mariota will be starting at QB for Washington for the 6th time this season but other than that, this team is finally healthy. Head coach Dan Quinn has had nearly his full roster able to practice the last 2 weeks (coming off a bye) including WR’s McLaurin and Brown. Despite their record, the Broncos have been a mistake prone team as they lead the NFL in penalties and have a negative turnover differential. Tough to keep winning games in the NFL with that formula. We’ll call this one close as most of Denver’s games have been. Take the points.

#378 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Buffalo Bills' offense had difficulty protecting QB Allen last Thursday against one of the league’s premier defensive fronts, allowing 8 sacks to the Texans. No matter how good Allen is, he can’t complete passes or run the football on his back. While the Pittsburgh Steelers no longer operate at that same elite level up front, they retain multiple capable pass rushers (TJ Watt – 7 sacks) who can still generate consistent pressure. Buffalo’s offensive line is facing considerable uncertainty heading into the weekend, with both starting tackles absent from early-week practices and left tackle Dion Dawkins currently in the concussion protocol. The Bills will be on the road for the second straight week and have lost 3 of their last 4 away from home. In fact, the Bills road woes are glaring as they average 15ppg away from home with Allen having the same number of INT’s as TD’s on the road. Pittsburgh’s offense has had some issues this season but have an opportunity to ‘get right’ against a Bills defense that ranks 23rd in yards per play allowed (5.7) and can’t stop the run (30th). With an established running game, QB Rodgers becomes much better utilizing play action. The Steelers do rank 11th in points per game and have eclipsed 23 points in seven of their last eight outings—a stretch that includes matchups against Minnesota, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Indianapolis, all of whom rank top 13 in yards per play defense. There are many home dog trends that support the Steelers here including a 11-5-1 ATS streak dating back to 2020 in that role.

#471 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -3 over New York Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons might be a better team with Kirk Cousins under center than Penix Jr in the current state of the team. We don’t think it matters who’s playing QB for the Jets (Taylor or Fields), they’re still bad. New York has 2 wins on the season and the 5th widest scoring differential of minus -6.5ppg. Even at home the Jets are losing by over a TD per game. Last week the Falcons got a much-needed win over the Saints after losing 5 straight (4 of which came against teams with .500 or above records). Atlanta averaged 5.7YPP in that game with solid balance in both aspects of the offense, rushing and passing. The Jets are coming off a 10-23 loss to the Ravens as the offense continues to struggle. New York is 29th in total yards per game gained, 28th in YPP (5.1) and average less than 20ppg. They will face an Atlanta defense that is above average in most key defensive metrics. Atlanta is still mathematically alive for the playoffs but essentially must win out. We will lay the short number with the Birds.

#305/306 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 48.5 Points - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Thursday at 1 PM ET - The markets are telling us the play in this game is UNDER the total. Even with public money flying in on this Over, the oddsmakers are adjusting the number down slightly. At Sharp Books we are seeing money come in on the UNDER. On the short week, early kickoff in a MASSIVE divisional game, we expect the defenses to outshine the offenses. Earlier this season these two teams met in perfect conditions in Green Bay with an O/U of 48.5 and they produced 40 total points. Green Bay netted 266 total yards, the Lions just 246. Detroit’s offense is averaging 6.3 YPP (4th best) but the Packers defense allows just 4.8 YPP, 2nd lowest number in the NFL. Green Bay’s offense has been ‘average’ in most cases this season 13th total yards per game, 13th YPP, 13th scoring. The Lions defense has similar numbers compared to the Packers offensive standings and allow just 22.1 PPG (12th fewest). The Packers offense has slipped with the loss of TE Kraft and their one big offensive showing in the past month came against a bad Giants defense. The Lions have a few big offensive games on their resume, but they’ve come against Washington and the Giants, again, bad defenses and nothing compared to Green Bay’s. The Packers defense ranks 4th in total yards per game given up, 2nd in YPP, give up the 6th fewest rushing yards and 5th lowest passing yards per game. We are on the UNDER in this early Thanksgiving Day schedule.

ASA play on UNDER 50 Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, 8:15pm ET - Last week the Panthers put up 30-points against the Falcons but that was an outlier based on their previous 4 games when they scored 7, 16, 9 and 13 points. The 49ers scored 41 points but had just 281 total yards of offense. Carolina is 22nd in total yards per game at 314, 26th in yards per play at 5.2 and 28th in scoring at 18.8ppg. The Panthers want to run the football (7th most rush attempts per game) which is great for us UNDER bettors as it typically shortens games. They could have a tough time though as that’s the strength of the 49ers defense which allows 104 rushing yards per game (12th) and 4.1 yards per rush (13th). San Francisco hasn’t lived up to expectations defensively, but they are still average in points allowed at 23 per game. The Niners seem to move the ball offensively with the 10th most total yards per game average this season (350yds) at 5.6 YPP (14th) but it hasn’t translated to a ton of points as they average 23.7ppg (15th). The Panther’s defense is near average in a lot of defensive categories including total YPG (15th) allowed, and PPG allowed (13th). With both teams coming off higher scoring games last week the oddsmakers had to adjust the numbers this week expecting public money on the OVER. That’s great for us though as we’ll grab the added value with UNDER.

#260 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints -1.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The betting markets indicate that the Saints are the play in this NFC South showdown. The tickets are on the Falcons, the money is on the Saints. The Falcons are in a tough scheduling situation here as they played two weeks ago and went into OT only to lose to the Colts. Last week they were home against the Panthers and lost again…in overtime and the defense has played 179 snaps in the last two games. That’s not ideal when they’ve played 6 straight weeks (1-5 SU). Atlanta lost starting QB Penix to a knee injury and will also be without, arguably, the best WR in the NFL this season, Drake London. Sure, Kirk Cousins is an experienced quarterback, but he didn’t play well in his start against the Dolphins (lost and produced just 10-points) 21/31 for 173 passing yards. As for the Saints, they are coming off a bye week and should be well prepared here. The change at QB for the Saints has been an upgrade with Tyler Shough coming off a solid game against the Panthers two weeks ago in a 17-7 road win. Shough was 19/27 for 282 yards, 2 TD’s and a 128 passer rating. New Orleans just 1-5 SU in their last six games but all four losses came against teams leading their division with a combined 30-11 SU record. We like the Saints to win this by more than a FG.

#256 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Jags are vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 6-4 on the season yet their point differential is only +14 which is 13th in the NFL. Their stats aren’t great and actually fairly comparable to this 3-7 Arizona team. The Jags are +3 YPG and -0.2 YPP on the season. The Cards are +0 YPG and -0.1 YPP on the year. The Cards have played a very tough schedule and they’ve been competitive for the most part with 5 of their 7 losses coming by 4 points or less. 6 of their last 8 games have come against San Francisco (twice), Seattle (twice), Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Dallas. We’re getting some line value here because Arizona is off back to back blowouts @ Seattle and last week here vs the Niners. Their loss to SF last Sunday we very deceiving as they lost by 19 points, yet outgained the Niners by over 200 yards and by +1.5 YPP. Their other 4 home games were all decided by 5 points or less. The Arizona offense has been much better since veteran Jacoby Brissett took over at QB. He already had over 1,500 yards passing (in 5 starts) and they are averaging 24 PPG (20 PPG prior to Brissett taking over). Since he took over they have outgained 4 of their 5 opponents including Indy, Green Bay, San Fran, and Dallas. Can’t trust Jacksonville laying points on the road. They are 2-2 away from home with losses @ Cincinnati and @ Houston and wins @ San Francisco by 5 (Jax had punt return for TD) and @ Las Vegas by 1. They were outgained on a YPP basis in 3 of their 4 road games. The Jags are coming off a blowout home win over the Chargers (also giving up some value here) and they have 2 division games on deck so a possible flat spot. Jacksonville was favored by only 1 point @ Las Vegas just a few weeks ago (won in OT) and now favored by a full FG @ Arizona who is better than the Raiders (Arizona 21st overall DVOA and Las Vegas 29th). This has upset written all over it.

#254 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -3 over Indianapolis Colts, Sunday a 1 PM ET - This is a gigantic home game for KC. A must win spot as they sit at 5-5. Much more important game for the Chiefs compared to Indy who has a 2 game lead in the weak AFC South. The Chiefs are coming off back to back road losses @ Buffalo and @ Denver. Mahomes has NEVER lost 3 games in a row in his career. KC has been much better offensively at home where they average 28 PPG (22 PPG on the road) and 380 YPG (349 YPG on the road). KC is averaging 3.11 points per possession at home which is 2nd in the NFL compared to 2.31 on the road (12th). They have better offensive AND defensive numbers this year with a 5-5 record compared to last season when they went 15-2. Crazy stat…KC currently has a +73 point differential with a 5-5 record and last year they had a +59 point differential with a 15-2 record! This team is better than their record. We’re not sure how good Indy is? There are very solid, however 6 of their 8 wins have come against the Titans (twice), Raiders, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Falcons who are all at least 3 games below .500 and have 13 total wins between them. The Colts are 2-2 vs teams that are currently .500 or better with wins over the Chargers and Broncos with losses vs the Steelers and Rams. We think there’s line value as well with KC at home as they were just favored by 2.5 @ Buffalo and by 4.5 @ Denver and now laying only a FG at home. Since 1990, there have been 14 times where a team with a 5-5 record or worse is favored over a team with an .800 or better record. Those favorites are 12-0-2 ATS. Let’s take KC in a must win spot at home.

#253/254 ASA PLAY ON Over 49 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Always important to keep a close eye on the weather this time of year and it looks perfect in KC on Sunday. Temps in the 50’s, no precipitation, and very light winds for this one. The Chiefs have been very good offensively at home this season. In their last 4 home games they have put up 37, 30, 31, and 28 points. Patrick Mahomes should have a field day vs this Indianapolis defense that ranks 19th in total defense and 25th vs the pass. KC is 2nd in the NFL in points per possession at home and they score points on 49% of their offensive possessions (2nd in the NFL). Who is 1st in the NFL in that stat? The Colts who have scored points on almost 57% of their possessions this season. Indy has scored at least 29 points in 8 of their 10 games this season. In the 2 games where they did not reach that point total, the Colts had 9 total turnovers taking away many chances to score by limiting their total possessions without a turnover to just 14 in those 2 games. We’re looking at 2 top 10 offenses (Indy #1 and KC #7) and 2 top 5 passing teams (Colts #3 and KC #5). We think this game gets well into the 50’s.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans +6 over Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Houston is still in desperation mode as they try to get back into the playoffs. They lost their first 3 games but have gone 5-2 since to get back to .500. Their 2 losses during that stretch were by 3 points vs Denver and by 8 points @ Seattle, 2 of the top teams in the NFL and both 1 possession games. To compare lines of those 2 top tier teams, the Texans were +3 @ Seattle and favored by 2.5 vs Denver. Now they are getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Bills? We understand they will be without starting QB Stroud again this week which may move the number a bit, however his back up Davis Mills is one of the better back up QB’s in the league. He’s already led Houston to back to back wins in Stroud’s absence. The Bills are coming off a big home win over Tampa Bay (44-32 final) but they’ve been a bit shaky on the road going 2-2 with losses as a favorite @ Atlanta and @ Miami. They scored only 27 total points in those 2 losses and now they face the top D in the NFL allowing just 258 YPG. Houston’s stop unit ranks in the top 5 in scoring, total defense, rush D, and pass D. They rank #1 in overall defensive EPA and they’ve allowed more than 20 points only twice all season. Huge defensive edge to Houston here which we always like when those teams are home dogs. If we look at overall DVOA (NFL Metric), Buffalo is rated as the 9th best team in the NFL and Houston is 10th. Too many points here.

#478 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We have to take more than a FG here with the Raiders at home vs the worst defense in the NFL. Hard to lay points on the road with a terrible defense, much less more than a FG and on the road so Dallas is a fade here. The Raiders have actually been competitive over the last month with their only no show vs KC on the road. They took Denver to the wire on the road in their most recent game and lost by 1 point at home vs Jacksonville a week prior to that. In their 10-7 loss @ Denver the Las Vegas defense held the Broncos to 3.9 YPP and the Raiders missed a FG late that would have tied the game. In their OT loss at home to the Jags a week earlier they outplayed Jacksonville (5.5 YPP to 4.8 YPP) but a failed 2 point conversion in OT was the difference. Big edge here to the Raider defense that has held 4 of their last 6 opponents to less than 5.0 YPP (Denver, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Chicago). They are in the top 10 in YPP, YPC, and YP pass completion allowed. They are a top 10 defense per DVOA while Dallas ranks 31st in that metric ahead of only Cincinnati. The Raiders only stinker at home was vs the LA Chargers (lost by 11) otherwise their other 3 home tilts were a win and two 1-point losses. Dallas has 1 road win on the season (@ NY Jets) and their 4 road losses have come by an average of 11 PPG. They are trending down having lost 3 of their last 4 games and the last 2 were double digit losses @ Denver and at home vs Arizona. The offense has carried this team, as we all know, as the D ranks 28th or over in total YPG, YPP, yards rushing and yards passing per game. The offense hasn’t looked great the last 2 games totaling 41 points while averaging barely 5.0 YPP. If they struggle again tonight vs a good LV defense, Dallas is cooked. The Boys have been road favorites just 4 times since the start of last season and covered only 1 of those games (@ Jets). Let’s take the points.

#472 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +9 -120 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Baltimore is now being talked about as one of the best teams in the NFL with Lamar Jackson back under center. We don’t see it. We think they are overvalued right now. They are 2-0 since Jackson came back beating Miami and Minnesota. Their win over Miami (28-6) final was misleading as they yardage was about dead even. Both teams pushed inside their opponents 25 yard line 4 times and Miami came away with 6 points while Baltimore scored 28 points. Last week they topped Minnesota 27-19 but they were outgained 6.0 YPP to just 4.9 YPP in that win but the Vikes had 3 turnovers (0 for Ravens). Jackson was banged up in that game and missed some practice time this week with a knee injury. He’s going to play but will he be effective on the ground vs Cleveland high level defense? We don’t think he’s back to 100% as he’s only rushed for 50 total yards in his last 2 games and just 3.5 YPC. The Browns defense has been lights out at home this season. They have allowed 197 YPG on 3.5 YPP and just 11 PPG at home this season. This total is set at 39 so a low scoring game is expected which makes it tougher to cover a game by more than a TD. Cleveland is 2-2 at home this year, including a win over Green Bay, and their 2 losses have come by 1 and 4 points. They are averaging 20 PPG at home and we don’t think they’ll need to get to that number to cover this game. The Ravens rolled the Browns 41-17 in their first meeting this season in Baltimore but look at the stats…Ravens 242 total yards / Browns 323 total yards. Cleveland averaged 5.2 YPC on the ground in that game and held Baltimore to 2.1 YPC. The Browns have won 3 of the last 4 at home vs the Ravens and we’ll say this one will be very close.

#451/452 ASA PLAY ON Over 47 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (@ Madrid, Spain) - This game is being played in Spain at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium which is home to the Real Madrid Soccer Club. Field conditions are said to be very good and the weather looks decent with temps in the 50’s, light winds, and a small chance of light precipitation possible. The Miami offense is starting to get in gear with 30+ points in 2 of their last 3 games. Last week they topped Buffalo 30-13 while averaging 7.0 YPP. The Fins should continue that offensive success vs a Washington defense that is in a free fall. The Commanders have allowed an average of 36 PPG over their last 5 games. During that stretch they are allowing 3.44 points per opponent drive which ranks them 31st in the NFL. The Miami defense has allowed at least 21 points in 8 of their 10 games this season. Last week they surprisingly held Buffalo to 10 points but that was very misleading. The Bills averaged almost 6 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (2 in Miami territory including an interception in the endzone) and they were shut out on downs twice. The Washington offense has been a bit up and down with Mariota at QB but in his 4 starts this year the Commanders have reached at least 22 points in 3 of those games. The defenses are the weaknesses of both teams ranking 23rd and 24th in defensive DVOA, 24th and 29th in PPG allowed, and 26th and 31st in YPP allowed. Let’s go Over in this one.

#311/312 ASA PLAY ON Under 43.5 Points – NY Jets vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets offense exploded for 27 points last week vs a very good Cleveland defense (27-20 win). Well, not so much. NY had only 169 total yards and averaged just 3.9 YPP in that win. They scored on a 99 yard kickoff return and a 74 yard punt return, so they really only scored 13 points on offense. They continue to run the ball a lot (6th in rushing play percentage) and they simply aren’t explosive in the pass game. In fact, they are the only team in the NFL that averages more yards per rush (5.0) than yards per pass attempt (4.6). They average just over 6 passing plays per game of over 10 yards which is last in the league. Hard to score points when you have to do it via long drives and very few explosives (26th in TD’s per game). The Pats D has been solid as of late holding 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or less and 3 of those teams didn’t top 13 points. The Jets defense is at least respectable ranking 13th in YPP allowed and they’ve excelled vs the pass ranking 8th. They’ve held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 4.3 YPP or less. Both teams prefer to run the ball (6th and 7th in run play percentage) which eats clock. New England, unlike the Jets, can score points, however as a big favorite of 13 points we foresee them getting a lead and grinding this one out. This has been a low scoring AFC East series with 5 of last 6 meetings failing to reach 40 total points. The only game in that stretch to push out of the 30’s was last year’s 25-22 New England win and even in that game they had only 33 total points with under 3:00 remaining in the game and close with 2 TD’s in that short period of time. The forecast calls for high winds in the Boston area at game time with gusts over 30 MPH. Let’s take the Under here.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers Money Line -115 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - With -115 readily available in the marketplace as of very early Monday morning, we are not going to lay -1 at -110 juice here. We will instead lay the -115 price to make any Green Bay SU win also a win at the betting window! The Packers are coming off a 16-13 home loss vs Carolina as a 13 point favorite. Teams in that situation have been money makers the following week and we expect Green Bay to play very well on Monday. In fact, double digit home favorites in the NFL that are coming off a loss and then favored at home again the following week are 26-13 ATS (67%). GB actually dominated the stat sheet in that loss outgaining the Panthers by +1.0 YPP and they didn’t punt in the game. Packer 2 turnovers were key leading directly to a Carolina TD and taking away potential points from GB on a fumble inside the Panther 25 yard line. Despite their 6-2 record, the Eagles haven’t been overly impressive this year. They are getting outgained on the season (YPG and YPP) and their point differential of +23 in just 11th best in the NFL. Green Bay, despite having 1 fewer win (5-2-1) has the better point differential by a decent margin at +40. The Packers are outgaining their opponents by +74 YPG and +1.2 YPP which is a top 5 mark in the NFL. The Packers rank 11th in total offense and 4th in total defense while Philly is outside the top 20 in both. Double revenger for Green Bay who lost twice to the Eagles last year, including the playoffs. The Packers outgained the Eagles pretty dramatically in their first loss last year (7.1 YPP to 5.4 YPP) and in the playoffs @ Philly the stats were about even but GB had 4 turnovers. We like the Packers and will lay this short price at home.

#264 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Nice spot for the Bucs coming off a bye giving them time to rest and get healthy. They still have a few players out (WR Godwin & RB Irving) but their offensive line looks healthy for the most part and their defense will only be missing 1 starter. Tampa has only played 3 home games to date and they’ve won 2 of those with their only loss coming vs the Eagles in a game the Bucs outgained Philly 376 to 200 total yards. While the Bucs were able to rest up and prepare for this game, the Patriots will be playing their 10th straight week and while they have a 7-2 record, they’ve faced, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. 4 of their 7 wins have come against Miami, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Tennessee who all rank 26th or lower in NFL DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking as the 3 worst teams in the NFL. They are coming off a home game where they held on to beat a 3-5 Atlanta team 24-23 in a game where the Falcons outgained them on a YPP basis. Not only will this be New England’s 10th straight week of playing games, it will also be their 4th road game in the last 6 weeks. The Pats will be without 2 of their best offensive weapons in this game with starting RB Stevenson and WR Boutte (5 TD receptions leads the team) both out. This one could come down to which high level QB, Maye or Mayfield, has the better day. Tampa has the better pass rush (both sacks per game & sack percentage) and they have better numbers in opponent completion percentage, opponent QBR, and opponent yards per pass attempt. The Pats defense has struggled on the road allowing 6.3 YPP despite facing the Saints, Titans, and the Dolphins in 3 of their 4 road games. Tampa’s D has allowed just 4.7 YPP at home this season. We like the situation here and expect TB to win by more than a FG.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans +1.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - No way the Jags should be favored in this game in our opinion. We realize that Houston will be going with Davis Mills at QB here, but we’re not talking about a inexperienced rookie back up or anything like that. Mills has over 6,000 career passing yards and has thrown for 35 TD’s. He’ll be fine here. He wasn’t great last weekend but he had to come in cold off the bench and face one of the best defenses in the NFL (Denver). Now he gets a week in practice with reps and a game plan set for him and facing a much weaker defense vs Jacksonville (22nd total D and 20th in YPP allowed). There are 3 average type units on the field in this game and one elite unit, the Houston defense. They’ll be by far the best unit on the field and facing a Jags offense that just hasn’t been very good as of late. They did score 30 points last week (7 in OT) beating the Raiders but only averaged 4.8 YPP. In fact, in their last 3 games they’ve averaged 4.8, 4.0, and 4.8 YPP and scored 12 points or less in 2 of those games. Not good. In their first meeting this year, the Jags came away with a 17-10 win at home despite getting outgained on a YPP basis. Houston had 3 turnovers (all inside the Jacksonville 35 yard line) and missed a FG in that tight loss. The Jaguars are a “false” 5-3 in our opinion as they have a negative YPP differential and they’ve been outscored on the season. They are currently 1 of just 3 teams in the NFL that have a winning record and a negative point differential (Bears and Panthers are the other 2). They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their 5 wins this season (YPP differential) but heavily benefited from turnovers in their wins (+7 turnover margin in their 5 wins). This one is do or die for Houston who has a 3-5 record and has games vs Chiefs, Bills, and Colts in the next month. Take the points with the Texans.

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON Over 53.5 Points – Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Dallas is obviously a dead nuts Over team right now. They rank #1 in total offense and dead last in total defense and that defense has a number of injuries right now. Dallas games average 62 total points and 800 total yards which are both tops in the league. At home their offense has been unstoppable scoring 40 points in every game while averaging 441 yards. They’ve scored almost 60% of their offensive possessions at home this year. After a decent start to the season the Arizona defense has fallen off allowing an average of 26 PPG over their last 4. That includes giving up 22 points to Tennessee, who hasn’t topped 20 points in any other game this season. They rank 25th defending the pass and their numbers will probably look worse this week taking on the #1 passing team in the NFL. Offensively, the Cards have looked good the last 2 weeks scoring 23 vs Green Bay (top 5 defense) and 27 vs Indianapolis. If they get anywhere near those numbers here, this game goes way Over the total and they should be able to vs this terrible Dallas D that has allowed at least 22 points in every game this season. It looks like veteran Jacoby Brissett will be under center again with starting Kyler Murray banged up (he was limited in practice all week). The Cardinals have actually been better offensive with Brissett at QB with their 2 highest point totals of the year the last 2 weeks. Brissett has thrown for 600 yards in those 2 games with 4 TD’s and 1 interception. He’ll be facing a Cowboy D that ranks 31st in pass defense and 31st in opposing QB completion percentage. Dallas is allowing a league-high 2.85 points per drive and opponents have scored a TD on a league-high 34.5% of their possessions vs this defense. Dallas last 5 games totals points were 80, 59, 57, 66, 66 and we don’t see that changing here. Take the Over.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points - New Orleans Saints vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Rams are heavy favorites here and this screams of a game where LA gets a lead and slows down the offense, doesn’t show much as they get ready for 2 big division games on deck (vs SF and Seattle). They did that in each of the last 2 games getting big leads vs Baltimore and Jacksonville and cruising to wins with total points scored of 20 and 42. We don’t think LA’s offense will go crazy here as they are facing a Saints defense that is actually pretty good allowing just 5.4 YPP (10th in the NFL). Last week they held a potent Tampa offense to 16 offense points (TB did have a defensive TD) on 3.8 YPP. The problem isn’t the defense, it’s the offense. The Saints have topped 21 points ONCE this season and they’ve been held to 14 points or less 4 times. They have scored a total of 36 points in their last 3 games. New Orleans will be going with rookie Tyler Shough at QB in this one. He’ll be making his first ever NFL start vs a high level LA defense that is peaking right now holding their last 2 opponents (Baltimore and Jacksonville) to 10 total points. The Rams are allowing 1.52 points per opponent possession, second in the league. They’ve also held opponents to TD’s on a league-low 13.7% of their drives. The Saints have gone Under the total in 4 straight and the Rams have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 games. We project a low scoring game and Under is the call.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON Over 50.5 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Colts offense ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 385 YPG and 6.7 YPP. They’ve scored at least 29 points in all but 1 game (vs Rams) and they’ve topped 35 points 4 times. Indy is averaging 3.46 points per possession which is the 2nd most of any team since the 2007 season. They should have a field day vs the Pittsburgh D that has allowed 450+ total yards in each of their last 2 games. The Steeler defense ranks 30th in total defense and dead last in pass defense which will be a problem vs red hot Daniel Jones and company. They rank 29th in defensive success rate and have allowed an average of 39 yards per opponents possession which is last in the NFL. On offense, Pitt is going to have to keep up here. They’ve shown as of late they can do just that. They’ve scored 21 or more in 5 straight games for an average of 25 PPG during that stretch. They put up 25 points last week on Green Bay, one of the top 5 defenses in the NFL. Now they face an Indianapolis defense that is nothing special. They rank 24th in total D and have allowed at least 20 point in all but 2 games and those were vs Las Vegas and Tennessee, the 2 worst scoring offenses in the NFL both averaging right around 14 PPG. The Steelers have shown they can keep up on offense if pushed as they average 27 PPG in the 4 games where their defense allowed 30+ points. Looks like perfect weather in Pittsburgh and this one goes Over.

#309/310 ASA PLAY ON Over 50.5 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have been Over machines and we don’t see that changing tonight. They’ve combined to play 15 total games and 12-2-1 record to the Over. That makes sense as the offenses are far superior to the defenses on both of these teams. As disappointing Miami has been with a 2-6 record, the offense hasn’t been the problem. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 5 of their 8 games and have only been held below 21 points one time since their season opener vs Indy. That was @ Cleveland 2 weeks ago vs a Browns defense that ranks 3rd in total D. The Fins also had 4 turnovers in that game which limited their scoring chances. They bounced back last Sunday with a great offensive effort shredding Atlanta’s defense, that ranks #2 in the NFL in total D, for 34 points. The Brownies won’t be facing an elite defense in this one facing a Baltimore stop unit that ranks 28th in total D and 30th in scoring D allowing 30 PPG. The Ravens have allowed at least 37 points in 4 of their 7 games this season and while it looks like the shut Chicago down last week (16 pts for the Bears), the Bears still averaged 6.0 YPP. The Baltimore offense looked good with Tyrod Taylor under center last week putting up 30 points on Chicago. This week they get Lamar Jackson back and we look for this offense to take off as they averaged 32 PPG over their first 4 games this season with Jackson starting. Baltimore ranks dead last in the NFL allowing opponents to score on 53% of their drives while Miami isn’t much better with opponents scoring on almost 51% of their drives (31st). Weather looks good in Miami on Thursday night and we think this one is high scoring.

#283 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +11.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last few weeks and that’s giving us huge line value with Washington in this game. To put this +11.5 line in perspective, it is almost basically the same number that KC was laying last week vs Las Vegas who is one of the worst teams in the NFL (that line was -13 to -13.5). To compare those 2 teams via DVOA, Washington ranks 7th in the NFL and Las Vegas is 28th. You get the point. On top of that, we get a playoff caliber team Washington coming off a blowout, embarrassing loss @ Dallas 44-22. The Commanders had 2 turnovers in that loss (0 for Dallas) and both led to TD’s for the Cowboys including a pick 6. Washington was also missing 2 of their key offensive weapons in that game, Samuel and McLaurin, and both are expected back here. QB Jayden Daniels was injured in the game and will not play here but he has struggled his last few starts so that may be a bonus. Marcus Mariota is one of the best back ups on the league and this will be his 3rd start this season (1-1 record). KC is coming off a shutout win vs a plummeting Las Vegas team and the Raiders ran only 30 total offensive plays which is insanely low. That easy win, along with Washington’s poor performance pushed this line to -12.5 and the look ahead number last week was -5.5. A full TD move based on last week’s results + the QB injury for the Commanders which may not set them back at all offensively. KC has their rivalry game with Buffalo on deck so if they get ahead late look for them to dial it back on offense. Washington’s road games this year had them +3 at Green Bay, +3 at LA Chargers, +2.5 at Atlanta, and +1.5 at Dallas. Now they’re getting almost 2 TD’s here? We’ll take Washington.

#279 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys +3.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver had an absolute miracle win over the Giants last week here at home. They trailed 19-0 in the 4th quarter but rallied to put up 33 points in the fourth quarter for a 33-32 win. The Broncos are 5-2 but they’ve played the 4th easiest schedule to date and 4 of their 5 wins have come against the Jets, Bengals, Titans, and Giants. Those 4 teams all rank 27th or lower in overall DVOA. Their one OK win came vs the Eagles, who are obviously down this year, and Denver rallied from a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit to squeak that one out. All of their wins with the exception of Cincinnati have been 1 score games. The Cowboys have been able to stay in games with their high powered offense. Of their 3 losses, 2 have come by 4 points or less. They rank #1 in total offense and are averaging almost 30 PPG. They also got a huge boost last week with WR Lamb getting back in the line up for their 44-22 win over Washington. They have scored at least 27 points in 5 of their last 6 games and while Denver has great numbers of defense, they’ve already faced 4 opposing offenses ranked 26th or lower. They’ve faced only 2 top 10 offenses and lost both of those games vs Chargers and Colts. They are just 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. We have a big edge at QB here with Dak Prescott having an MVP type year (#1 QBR) vs an up and down Bo Nix. If we look strictly at DVOA, Dallas is the better team ranking 9th compared to 14th for Denver. Take the points here.

#272 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Look, we’re all about finding edges where the market’s sleeping, and this Eagles-Giants matchup is screaming opportunity. Forget team loyalty—this is about exploiting a line that’s begging to be played. Philly’s coming off their best offensive showing of the season, averaging 7.8 yards per play against Minnesota, and now they’re back home where they’ve been fantastic, posting a 12-2 SU record in their last 14 at Lincoln Financial Field with a +9.6 point differential. Meanwhile, the Giants are reeling. They pulled off a massive upset 34-17 upset over Philly two weeks ago in their own building, but last week’s collapse in Denver—blowing a 19-0 lead and giving up 33 points in the fourth quarter alone—exposed their defensive frailties. Our internal metrics rank the Eagles 9th overall, while the Giants limp in at 25th. Philly’s had two weeks to dissect tape on New York’s rookie QB Jaxson Dart, so no surprises this time. The same -7.5 spread was set when these teams met in New York, but now the Eagles have momentum, home-field dominance, and a chip on their shoulders. Don’t overthink this one, take Philadelphia and don’t look back.

#476 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -5.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for Detroit coming off a loss last week @ KC. Their loss @ KC wasn’t a huge surprise as the Chiefs have been playing very well and it was more of a must win for them at home. The YPP numbers were close to even in that game. They had won their previous 4 games by a combined score of 161-85 (all by at least 8 points) with the offense scoring at least 34 points in all of those games. Tampa is sitting at 5-1 on the season yet NFL DVOA (advanced metric) has them as the 13th best team in the league (Detroit is 3rd). Not surprising as 4 of Tampa’s 5 wins have been come from behind wins in the last minute of the game with 3 of those coming in the final 6 seconds of the game. Despite their 5-1 record, they are only +14 in overall point differential which is 13th in the NFL. The Bucs are also really banged up right now. Baker Mayfield has had a very good year to this point but it looks like he will be without ALL of his starting skill position players on Sunday. That’s RB Irving, WR’s Evans, Godwin, and Egbuka. Tampa is coming off a 30-19 home win over San Francisco which was their only comfortable win this season and even in that game the Bucs were outgained but benefitted from 2 Niner turnovers (0 for TB). The Lions have some extra motivation here after losing 20-16 at home vs Tampa last year despite outgaining the Bucs 463 to 216. They were -7.5 point favorites in that game and now we’re getting the Lions under a TD in a great situational spot. Detroit is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS playing at home off a loss since 2023 with a averaging winning margin of +15.5 PPG. Head coach Dan Campbell is at ATS machine with a 57-31-2 spread record which is easily the best in the NFL.

#473 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +2 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco remains really banged up and we’ll side with the dog in this one. The Niners will again be without starting QB Purdy along with many of their offensive weapons including TE Kittle, WR Pearsall, WR Aiyuk (getting closer to practicing), and WR Valdez-Scantling. They also lost arguably their top defensive player last week as well with LB Warner out and DE Bosa was already sidelined. They did win their first 3 games of the season (by a combined 10 points) when they were at least semi healthy (Purdy did miss 2 of those games). Over their last 3, the Niners have gone 1-2 with their only win coming in OT vs the Rams in a game San Fran was outgained by 7.1 to 4.9 YPP. The defense has allowed at least 7.0 YPP in 2 of their last 3 games. SF is 4-2 on the season but has a -3 point differential (20th in the NFL) and their YPP differential is only +0.1 (18th in the NFL). They’ve been pretty fortunate piecing together a winning record to this point but their injuries are starting to catch up with them. Atlanta is better than their 3-2 record. They have some impressive wins over Buffalo, Washington, and @ Minnesota and they rank 5th in the NFL in YPP margin. The Birds are outgaining their opponents by +125 YPG and they lead the league in rushing at 151 YPG on the ground while SF can’t run the ball (82 YPG). Atlanta ranks higher than San Francisco in offensive and defensive YPG and YPP and they’ve faced the tougher schedule. The Falcons offense leads the NFL averaging 379 YPG. We’ll take the better team getting points on Sunday night.

#459 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We know you are backing a bad team here in the Saints but are the Bears that much better? Let’s look at Chicago first and their 3 game winning streak. Granted, winning in the NFL isn’t easy and wins are wins but the Bears beat Dallas despite getting outgained (Cowboys in bad scheduling spot off Giants and Packers on deck), beat the Raiders – outgained – and got a last second win Monday night over the Commanders. Should they really be laying 5-points here. The Saints have just one win on the season but don’t look like a team that has quit with three of their losses coming by 1-score. New Orleans has also faced the tougher schedule with games against the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and 49ers, yet have similar statistics to Chicago. Saints average 4.9YPP and 305 yards per game. The Bears average 338YPG but are more explosive at 5.7YPP. New Orleans is 18th in total yards allowed per game at 327 at 5.5YPP. The Bears give up an average of 369YPG at 6.6YPP (most in the league). Chicago has a home record of 11-16 SU dating back to the start of the 2022 season with an average margin of victory of +0.1ppg which isn’t enough to get a cover here. New Orleans is 9-18 SU their last 27 road games BUT they have an average loss margin in those games is -3.3ppg. This is going to be a FG game either way.

#312 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - While Pittsburgh is sitting at 4-1 on the season, we’re not so sure they deserve to be. The Steelers have been very fortunate to get to that record as they’ve been outgained by 79 YPG, by 0.2 YPP, and by 0.7 YPC (rushing). The Bengals showed some life last week with new acquired Joe Flacco at QB hanging with Green Bay on the road (Cincy cover). They lost that game by 9 points (27-18 final) and the Bengals scored all 18 points in the 2nd half giving them some momentum heading into Thursday’s game. Flacco was solid completing 29 of 45 pass attempts with 2 TD’s. Cincy has played only 2 home games so far this season and they’ve been solid in those 2 games. They beat Jacksonville with their back up QB Browning (Burrow went out very early in that game) and then despite their home loss to Detroit, the yardage was pretty close (365 to 322 in favor of the Lions) but 3 turnovers by the Bengals were the difference (Browning started that game). Pittsburgh is off an easy 23-9 home win vs Cleveland last week but they benefitted from catching the Browns in a horrible situation (3rd straight game away for Cleveland and coming back from London with no bye). That fact is, the Steelers have been outgained in 3 of their 4 wins and despite their 4-1 record their point differential is only +12 which is 15th in the NFL. 5 of last 6 games in this AFC North series have been decided by a single score. 3 of Pittsburgh’s 4 wins have come by 7 or less and we like this one to stay tight. Take the points.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7 PM ET - Do we really know how good the Bills are at this point? We hear many anointing them the best team in the AFC but we’re not so sure. The NFL DVOA metric has them rated as the 9th best team in the NFL with Atlanta just a few spots behind. Let’s look how they’ve gotten to their current 4-1 record. First, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. In week 1 they came from 15 points down with under 4:00 remaining to beat the Ravens scoring 17 points in the final 3:56. While Baltimore has had some injuries, even prior to that they’ve shown they might not be near the level they were a year ago. After that the Bills beat the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints who have a combined record of 2-13 (as of Sunday morning). Last week, the Patriots played them toe to toe (both averaged 6.0 YPP) and won in Buffalo 23-20. We’re not sure the Bills should be favored by a FG or more here. Atlanta is in a great spot coming off a bye week. We think the Falcons are undervalued right now. Their 2 losses came vs Tampa Bay, who scored with under 1 minute remaining to get the 3 point win, and @ Carolina. That game still baffles us. The Birds outgained Carolina by more than 100 yards, had more first downs, averaged 5.7 YPC rushing to 3.7 for the Panthers and lost big. 3 turnovers didn’t help. Atlanta has some nice momentum heading into the bye beat a good Washington team while outgaining them 435 to 294. They have a mobile QB (Penix) and are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL (6th) facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 28th vs the run. The Falcons have played the much tougher schedule, yet still have better YPG and YPP margins. Their defense has been outstanding and currently ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed. We think this game goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.

#269/270 ASA PLAY ON Over 45.5 Points - New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both teams are coming off huge wins last Sunday and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game and lead to a high scoring affair. The Patriots offense with Drake May is playing above expectations with a 25ppg scoring average and a 5.6 yards per play average. In the last four weeks, New England has scored 33 against the Dolphins, 42 versus the Panthers and 23 against the Bills. The one low scoring game was 14-points against the Steelers but they should have scored 28 in that game as they had a pick in the endzone and also fumbled going in to score. The Saints notched their first win of the season last week with the help of 5 turnovers by the Giants. New Orleans put up 26 points in that game after failing to top 21 in their previous four games. The Saints though have faced some of the league's better defenses (Seattle, San Fran, Arizona) that rank top 11 in yards per play allowed. The Saints will face a New England defense that is allowing 5.7YPP (23rd) against a relatively soft schedule with four opponents ranking 22nd or worse in YPP offensively. New Orleans has given up 26 or more points in three of their last four games. The Saints also play at the fastest rate in the league by running a play every 26 seconds. New England ranks 16th in pace of play. NFL games are averaging 47ppg on the season so asking these two teams to get to that number seems reasonable.

#259 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +1 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday a 1 PM ET - We were on Seattle last week and they lost on a FG as time expired. Actually Tampa scored 10 points in the final 1:05 of that game to come from behind and win. The Seahawks offense was really good averaging a whopping 8.6 YPP in that loss. The defense came into the game as one of the best in the NFL and threw up a stinker allowing TB to score 38 points after not allowing any of their first 4 opponents to top 20 points. We like the defense to bounce back and play very well here. Seattle still ranks in the top 10 in defensive DVOA and they rank as the 2nd best team in the NFL overall DVOA. Their YPP margin of +1.2 is the 2nd best in the NFL. This team is much better than their 3-2 record. They catch the Jags on a short week after beating KC on Monday night in one of their biggest home wins in the last 3 or 4 seasons. The Chiefs actually dominated Jacksonville in the stat sheet with 476 total yards (7.6 YPP) to just 319 yards for Jags on 5.9 YPP. Jacksonville won the turnover battle in that game including a game changing 99 yard pick 6 which was a 14 point turnaround. Despite that, they still needed a TD with 23 seconds left to win by 3. The Jaguars lead the NFL in turnover margin and have 4 more takeaways (14) than anyone else in the NFL. That’s not sustainable and once the turnovers even out, this team won’t be as successful. Despite their 4-1 record, they are getting outgained on a YPG and YPP basis on the season. We don’t love the long travel for the Seahawks, but that is offset a bit by Jacksonville playing on a short week. The better team is getting points here and the Seahawks have won 9 of their last 10 road games outright. We’ll take Seattle to win this game.

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 41 Points - Philadelphia Eagles at NY Giants, Thursday 8:15 PM ET - This is a low looking number and has the public bettors triggered into OVER action on Thursday night. We are looking at this game differently and expect a low scoring division showdown between a pair of NFC East rivals, much like last year’s two outcomes of 33 and 31 total points. In four of the five Giants games this season, the end result has been less than 40-points being scored, or 80% UNDER. Philadelphia has totaled less than 40-points in two of five games this season, but the other three higher scoring games came against the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Rams. Those three teams are all top 11 teams in the NFL in terms of yards per play and total yards per game. The Giants offense, or even the Eagles for that matter will not be confused for any of those team offenses. Philadelphia is 29th in yards per play offensively averaging just 4.4YPP, down from the 5.6YPP they averaged a year ago. The Giants offense has been equally as bad averaging 4.9YPP (25th) while scoring just 17.4ppg (28th). New York got a bump offensively when they made the change to QB Dart two weeks ago, but his overall numbers aren’t very good. Dart has thrown for 313 yards at 5.2 yards per attempt with 3 TD’s but 2 INT’s and a fumble. He’s provided a spark with his running ability but he’s nursing a sore hamstring and is currently less than 100%. Speaking of quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts of the Eagles is throwing for less yards per game than Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Bryce Young among others. The defenses are better than their statistics would indicate and both will be up for the challenge tonight in this divisional game.

#485/486 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The explosive KC offense of old has simply been pretty average the last few years. They sit middle of the pack in total offense this season and in the bottom third in YPP. They’ve been held to 22 points or less in 3 of their 4 games this season. Their one “breakout” game offensively was putting up 37 points on a terrible Baltimore defense that finished that game with 7 starters out due to injury. That’s the same Baltimore defense that just allowed 44 points to a Houston offense that ranked 29th in the NFL averaging 16 PPG entering that contest. The Jags offense has been just OK as well ranking 21st in YPP and averaging 24 PPG (16th). Their scoring numbers are actually misleading as they lead the NFL in takeaways (and +9 in turnover margin which is #1) and 41 of their 96 total points this year have come directly off turnovers. Those opportunities may not present themselves tonight as KC has taken care of the ball this year with only 1 giveaway. Defensively both stop units are top 5 in the NFL in scoring D and they’ve both been very efficient on that side of the ball ranking in the top 7 in opponent’s yards per point. These 2 have met 7 times since 2013 and the Under has cashed in 6 of those games with an average total points scored of 41. Let’s take the Under on Monday Night.

#478 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4 PM ET - First off, the situation definitely favors Seattle. They played last Thursday at Arizona (23-20 win) so they have had 10 days to prepare and rest. Tampa is playing their 3rd road game in the first 5 weeks and have to travel about as far as you can travel in this league for this one. The Bucs are a bit fortunate to be 3-1 on the season as their first 3 wins all came with a score in the last minute of play. They beat Atlanta with a TD with under 1:00 minute left, beat Houston with a TD with 6 seconds left, and beat the Jets with a FG as time expired. Last week they lost their first game of the season vs Philadelphia. The Eagles got out to a 24-3 lead in that game and held on for a 31-25 win. The Tampa offense hasn’t been clicking early in the season ranking 22nd in YPP, 16th in YPC (rushing), and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. They will be missing their top 2 offensive weapons in this game with WR Evans and RB Irving both injured. Their other WR Godwin just returned from an injury (hadn’t played since week 7 last year) last week and wasn’t overly effective (3 catches in 10 targets) as he works his way back. We don’t see a path to success here offensively for the Bucs missing those 2 guys and facing a Seattle defense that ranks #2 DVOA and allowed only 1.46 points per drive which is 2nd best in the NFL. Seattle’s offense has been a surprise ranking 9th in YPP and 6th in scoring at 28 PPG with veteran QB Darnold having another good season. Because they’ve been solid on both sides of the ball, Seattle’s YPP margin is +1.2 which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Their only loss was a 17-13 setback vs the Niners when SF was healthy. It took a late SF TD (1:30 left) to win that one otherwise Seattle is undefeated. Let’s lay it here.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Eagles are 4-0 but their metrics say this is a 2-2 team at best. They’ve been outgained both YPG and YPP in every game this season. Their YPP margin is -1.2 which ranks 28th in the NFL and they are getting outrushed 3.5 YPC to 4.8 YPC. Last week they won with 200 total yards and they didn’t complete a pass in the 2nd half. They rank 30th in the NFL in total offense and Philly is getting outgained by an average of 82 YPG. Two weeks ago they trailed the Rams 26-7 in the 2nd half a pulled out a win with a blocked FG attempt returned for TD as time expired (we were on Rams ughh!). This team can’t continue winning the way they are playing this season. They are going to get clipped soon and we think it’s this weekend. Denver is off an easy 28-3 win over a bad Cincy team but dominated with +20 first down differential and over 500 yards of offense. The Broncos are close to being 4-0 as well (2-2 right now) as their 2 losses came @ LA Chargers by 3 and @ Indianapolis by 1 (2 playoff caliber teams) and they led both games in the 4th quarter. While Philly has a number of negative differentials we’ve discussed the Broncos are +0.9 YPP, +70 YPG, and +1.0 YPC (rushing). The Denver defense is one of the best in the NFL ranking 2nd in scoring D and in the top 10 in total D and YPP allowed. They should have plenty of success facing an Eagle offense that ranks 29th or lower in total offense, YPP, rushing YPC, and passing offense. We think Denver has a great shot at winning this game but even if not, getting above +3 is key as both of their were by a FG or less. We’ll take the points here.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - San Fran’s offense has injury issues heading into this short week. It looks like starting QB Purdy won’t play leaving the reins to Mac Jones. The Niners have been held under 20 points in 2 of their 4 games and have topped 21 points only once. They could be without starting WR’s Pearsall and Jennings with Brandon Aiyuk already on the shelf for an extended period of time. SF is already struggling to run the ball (28th in YPG rushing) and with their QB and key WR’s out they may have problems vs a Rams team that ranks in the top 10 in pass defense. Speaking of the Rams defense, they’ve been really good this year ranking in the top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, rush defense, pass defense, and scoring defense. LA held a potent Indy offense (had scored 33, 29, and 41 points entering last week) to 20 points on 333 total yards last week. On defense, the 49ers are healthy (besides the loss of Bosa) and they’ve been really good. They rank in the top 5 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They haven’t allowed any of the 4 offenses they’ve faced to top 21 points (Jags had 26 last week but that included an 87 yard punt return). 8 of the last 11 meetings in this NFC West rivalry have totaled 45 points or fewer. We’ll take the Under in this one.

#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points – NY Jets vs Miami Dolphins, Monday at 7:15 PM ET - These are 2 of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL to date and we expect both offenses to have success here. Miami is allowing 32 PPG (last in the NFL) and the NY Jets are giving up 31 PPG (29th). The Fins have allowed at least 30 points in all 3 of their games and the Jets have allowed at least 29 points in every game. Miami is last in the NFL in defensive EPA and they’ve given up 3.6 points per drive which is also dead last. They have allowed opponents to score points on 68% of their offensive possessions which is last in the NFL. The Jets haven’t been a whole lot better on that side of the ball. They’ve allowed the most plays of 20+ yards in the league and opponents have scored on 54% of their possessions vs this defense (31st). Offensively the Dolphins had 1 stinker to start the season scoring 8 points vs Indy but they have since scored 27 and 21 points vs New England and Buffalo. After averaging just 4.6 YPP vs the Colts, Miami has averaged just over 5.7 YPP their last 2 games combined. To put that in perspective, that number (5.7 YPP) would put them on the top 10 this year in that key stat. This offense is fine. The Jets get QB Fields back for this game. He’s missed the last 2 games with back up Tyrod Taylor taking over. In Fields only start this year the Jets put up 32 points and 6.4 YPP vs the Steelers. Last year these 2 put up 52 total points (in regulation) in both of their games and they’ve scored at least 47 points in 5 of their last 7 meetings. We’ll grab the Over in this one.

#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We expect Chicago’s offense to continue to get better each week as they get more comfortable with head coach Ben Johnson’s schemes. They have already shown that progression gaining more yards (both YPG and YPP) and scoring more points when compared to their previous week. Their offense looked really good last week vs the Cowboys putting up 31 points on 6.8 YPP. The only teams to average more YPP last week were the Colts and the Commanders. Interestingly, the Commanders faced the Raiders (Chicago’s opponent on Sunday) and put up 41 points on 7.4 YPP with their back up QB. This Las Vegas defense has been poor ranking 29th in YPP allowed and giving up 25 PPG. The Vegas offense is better than their scoring numbers this year (18 PPG). Those numbers are really skewed by one really poor performance (9 points) vs a Charger defense that has been outstanding allowing less than 17 PPG on the season. The one thing that the Raiders excel at offensively is throwing the ball. They rank 7th in passing yards and QB Geno Smith is 3rd in the NFL in passing yards and 7th in yards per pass attempt. They are facing a Chicago defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.9 YPP. The Bears have been poor on the back end ranking 26th in pass defense and 31st in opponent’s completion percentage. They allowed 27 points in week 1 vs Minnesota with new QB JJ McCarthy, 52 points in week 2 vs Detroit, and last week they “held” Dallas to 14 points. The Cowboys should have had a much higher scoring game as they put up 396 yards but they had 4 key turnovers including 2 picks in the endzone. Both offenses are the strengths of these teams and we’ll call for a high scoring game on Sunday.

#251 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET – Game in being played in Ireland - Both these teams are 2-1 on the season but there is a drastic difference in key stat margins. The Vikings have a +25 point differential while Pittsburgh’s is -5. Minnesota has a +0.9 YPP differential and a +0.3 YPC (rushing) differential. The Steelers have a -1.3 YPP differential and a -1.5 YPC differential. Pittsburgh has been outgained on a YPG and YPP basis in all 3 of their games this year and they are already -417 in total yardage through 3 games. They’ve been very fortunate with a +5 turnover margin in their 2 wins. They rank 30th in total offense and 26th in total defense. The only other team in the NFL that ranks in the bottom 7 in both total offense and total defense are the Tennessee Titans. This Pittsburgh team has the stats of an 0-3 team. Minnesota is coming off a 48-10 home win over Cincinnati last week (we were on the Vikings). While they did have some big time help with the Bengals committing 5 turnovers, the Vikes still averaged over 6.0 YPP so the offense was playing well. Veteran QB Carson Wentz stepped in and played well for the injured JJ McCarthy. We think this is an upgrade short-term as Minnesota was struggling with McCarthy under center (5.2 and 4.3 YPP in their first 2 games). The Viking defense has been really solid and will easily be the best unit on the field in this game. They rank 6th in total defense, 7th in YPP defense, and 3rd in pass defense. They have allowed a TD on just 11% of opponent possessions which is the best mark in the NFL. The Pittsburgh offense has yet to top 271 total yards and QB Rodgers has been below average ranking 23rd in QBR. They’ll struggle offensively vs this Minnesota defense. The favorite in NFL overseas games are 32-18 ATS and we like Minnesota laying under a FG.

ASAwins UNDER 43.5 Seahawks at Cardinals, Thursday 8:15pm ET - We don’t see many points being scored in the NFC West showdown between the 2-1 Seahawks and 2-1 Cardinals. Seattle is scoring 29.3ppg on the season which is the 5th highest scoring average in the league but looks can be deceiving. The Seahawks just put up 44-points against the Saints but special teams played a major role in that scoring output with a 95-yards punt return and also had a blocked punt. The Hawks had 28-points on the board with barely 100 total yards of offense. Seattle’s averaging just 315ypg offensively (18th) and converting just 36.36% of their 3rd downs which rates 25th in the NFL. The running game has been non-existent at 3.3 yards per rush. The Cardinals defense will be the second best unit the Seahawks have faced this season behind the 49ers and Seattle struggled against the Niners with just 13-points and 230-total yards of offense. Arizona is allowing the 5th fewest points per game this season at 17ppg and rank 3rd in Opponents Points per Play. The Cards also have the 3rd best 3rd down defense in the league allowing 30.77% conversions. Arizona is not going to put up big numbers in this game either. The Cardinals are 19th in scoring at 20.7ppg, 25th in total yards per game and average just 4.8 yards per play (24th). Not to mention, the Seahawks defense is giving up just 15.7ppg (2nd), 0.234 points per play (1st) and 4.7 yards per play (7th). The Cardinals have scored a TD on 18.5% of their drives, 25th in the league. Arizona will look to slow this game to a crawl with their offense averaging 33 seconds per play, slowest in the NFL.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions +4.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Both these teams are 1-1 and have played almost identical strength of schedules. The Lions lost @ Green Bay (possibly the best team in the NFC) and beat Chicago handily. The Ravens lost @ Buffalo (possibly the best team in the AFC) and beat Cleveland handily. Baltimore has actually been outgained in both of their games this season including last week at home vs Cleveland. They won that game 41-17 but that was a very misleading final score as the Browns had 323 total yards to 292 for the Ravens and the YPP numbers were about dead even. The Ravens had a fumble return for a TD in that game and 3 of their 4 offensive TD’s were drives of 36 yards or less. The ground heavy Ravens rushed for only 45 yards in that game. Detroit is off a 52-21 win over Chicago, a game where they averaged nearly 9 YPP. The Lions rank in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense. The Ravens are a top 5 offense but their defense currently ranks 31st in the NFL ahead of only the NY Giants. The Lions have been great as a dog covering 10 of their last 12 in that role and head coach Dan Campbell is a money making 54-30-2 ATS in his career with Detroit. The Lions were +1.5 @ Green Bay in week 1 and now their getting +4.5 @ Baltimore? Lions can do enough offensively vs what looks like a poor Baltimore defense to keep this close and possibly pull the upset. Too many points.

#461 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3.5 vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 1 PM ET - A rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional round of the playoffs with Philly winning at home 28-22. The Rams actually outgained the Eagles 402 to 350 in that loss but had 2 key turnovers. Philly went onto destroy Washington and KC in their next 2 games to win the Super Bowl. Both teams are 2-0 on the season but we’ve been unimpressed with the former Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They were outgained in both of their wins in total yards and YPP. Last weekend they were -1.5 YPP vs the Chiefs and still came away with an unlikely 20-17 win. Their opening week they were at home vs the Cowboys and won by 6 in a game where they were outplayed. The offense has not looked good failing to get to 5 YPP in either game this season. Philly is getting outgained by 1 YPP (which is significant) after 2 games. QB Hurts isn’t a put a team on my shoulders and pass them to a win type signal caller and they rely heavily on the run (2nd in carries per game this year and 1st last year). Problem is they are only averaging 3.9 YPC (20th in the NFL). Now they face a Rams D that is allowing 4.3 YPP (3rd in the NFL) and held them to 350 yards last season when Philly was absolutely rolling on offense. LA put up 33 points and 440 yards (7.4 YPP) on a very solid Tennessee defense last week that held Denver to 4.5 YPP a week earlier. QB Stafford is clicking with 543 yards passing on 71% completions thus far. The Rams have covered 7 in a row on the road and they are an “under the radar” 13-4 SU since mid October of last year. Let’s take the points here.

ASA PLAY ON UNDER 43.5 Points - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The first team to 20-points will probably win this game. The Jags offense has some impressive statistics ranking 4th in total yards per game (389), 10th in YPP at 5.9 while scoring 26.5 PPG. Those numbers are not truly indicative of where this offense is though as they’ve faced the Bengals and Panthers who both rank in the bottom half of the league in most key statistical categories. In fact, these two defenses were bottom 6 a year ago in Efficiency ratings. Houston had the 3rd best defense in terms of DVOA rankings a year ago and despite facing two upper tier offenses, the Texans have allowed just 34 total points in two games this season. Don’t be misled by the yardage and yards per play they’ve allowed as the defense has spent a ton of time on the field with the offense struggling to move the football and sustain drives. On that note, the Texans offense is averaging 265 YPG (28th) and is last in the league in scoring at 14 PPG. We understand the Jags defense has not faced great offenses in the first two games of the season in the Bengals (without QB Burrow) and the Panthers, but they have allowed just 5.0 YPP and 302 YPG. This is a massive AFC South game with the Texans 0-2 and the Jaguars 1-1. Last season in two meetings these two rivals combined for 43 and 44 total points. We don’t see either team generating big plays and expect a total in the range of 37-points.

#278 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -2.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 7 PM ET - We like this situation for the Texans. They are coming of a 14-9 road loss @ LA Rams while the Bucs are playing the 2nd of back to back road games after winning 23-20 in Atlanta last Sunday. In their win @ Atlanta, Tampa was outgained by nearly 100 yards and only averaged 4.6 YPP. Now they face what we consider one of the top few defenses in the NFL that allowed only 296 yards last week to the Rams. The Texans led 9-7 @ half in LA last week and came away with a 14-9 loss. Now they are in must win mode at home as teams that start 0-2 only make the playoff 11% of the time since 1990. The Texans weren’t impressive on offense last week @ LA but their defense was very good and we expect them to be one of the top units in the NFL this year. TB’s best offensive lineman, LT Wirfs, and top WR Godwin are most likely still out which won’t help vs this top notch defense. Dating back 15+ seasons, teams in week 2 that start the season 0-1 vs a team that is 1-0 cover almost 58% of the time. We’ve got a team that has made the playoffs in back to back seasons in that spot here and they are at home. With this number under a FG, we like Houston to get the cover.

#275 ASA NFL PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 8:20pm ET - If you haven’t figured it out yet, Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell is really good. The Vikings allowed QB Sam Darnold to walk this past summer knowing JJ McCarthy would be serviceable. Minnesota got a road win in the opener but that was over a Bears team that won just 5 games a year ago and still has some work to do. The Vikings had just 254 total yards in the game with 134 passing yards on 20 attempts. Minnesota’s defense was really good last season but looked mediocre in their opener against a Bears offense that was last in the league in yards per play a year ago at 4.5YPP and total yards per game at 283YPG. Atlanta should have won their opener against the Bucs as they completely outplayed Tampa Bay for most of the game. The Falcons put up 358 total yards with QB Penix Jr throwing for 289 passing yards. Atlanta held the explosive Bucs offense to 4.7YPP and 260 total yards but came up short on the scoreboard 20-23. In 2024 these two teams met on this field and the Vikings won 42-21 as a 6-point favorite. Atlanta turned the ball over 3 times to zero for the Vikings and then QB Darnold threw 5 TD’s. We don’t see the conservative Vikings offense scoring anywhere near as many points in this game and won’t be surprised by a Falcons outright win.

#259/260 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points - LA Rams vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans struggled mightily on offense in week 1 as we expect with a new system and rookie QB.  They put up only 12 points on 133 total yards and a terrible 2.4 YPP.  They were unable to get into the endzone and their 4 FG’s came on drives of 0, 9, 23, and 33 yards.  It’s going to take some time for this offense to get on track.  Defensively, the Titans were very impressive.  They held a very potent Denver offense to just 4.5 YPP and held Bo Nix to just 175 yards passing.  While the Titans had a terrible 3-14 record last year, they were very solid defensively ranking 3rd in the NFL in total defense and 8th in YPP allowed.  The Rams offense will most likely take some time to gel as well.  QB Stafford practiced very little in camp due to an injury and didn’t play at all in the pre-season.  They were held to just 14 points last week vs Houston and put up less than 300 total yards.  Defensively they were on their game holding CJ Stroud and the Texans to 9 points on only 4.6 YPP.  Neither offense was in a hurry last week as both ran a play every 30 seconds which ranked them 19th and 20th in pace in week 1.  Most offenses struggled last week and we think that will be the case for a few weeks.  The Unders went 12-4 in week 1 with an average total points scored of 41.  This one stays in the 30’s and we like the Under.

#481/482 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We think this NFC North Division battle plays out a low scoring battle. We project the Vikings to have one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. They ranked in the top 10 in YPP allowed and top 5 in PPG allowed last season. They held 9 of their 17 opponents last season to 21 points or fewer (19.9 PPG). Minnesota allowed opponents to score points on just 31% of their offensive possessions last season which was #1 in the NFL. In their 2 meetings with the Bears they held Chicago to 39 total points on just 5.0 YPP. The Bears averaged only 18 PPG last season and finished dead last in total offense and YPP offense. While we expect some improvement under new head coach Ben Johnson, it’s going to take some time and we look for the Bears to struggle on offense early in the season. We feel the same for the Minnesota offense. QB McCarthy will make his first ever NFL start and he has struggled in camp. It looks like he will be without his starting LT Darrisaw so that could be a problem for the young QB. The Vikings played at a very slow tempo last year (22nd in seconds per play) and we expect them to be even more conservative this year, especially early in the season, with an inexperienced QB. Chicago tried to play fast last year, however their second per play numbers should drop drastically in 2025. Their new head coach Ben Johnson was the OC for the Lions last year and they were 18th in tempo and that was with an offense that was fully integrated for years. With the Bears learning a new offense, watch for a slow paced start to the season. 4 of the last 5 meetings have not topped 42 points and Division games have a tendency to stay low scoring. In fact, since 2010, Chicago’s division games have gone Under at nearly 56% and Minnesota’s stayed under at nearly 53%. If we’re looking at Monday night games only, Minnesota has stayed Under in 14 of their last 16 and Chicago has stayed under in 10 of their last 13. Under is the call on Monday Night.

#461 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Washington, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number opened -7.5 and despite 50/50 split on the actual bets, it has dropped a point and a half. That’s because, despite the 50/50 wagers, over 80% of the money at a few sharp books we track has come in on the Giants. NYG are the sharp side and we agree 100%. We think this is an overvalued vs undervalued situation to open the season. The Giants had major issues at QB last year with 4 different signal callers starting a game at some point last season. Russell Wilson has been very good in NYG camp and brings some stability to an offense that has some very talented playmakers. Wilson has been fantastic in his career as an underdog with a 44-27 ATS record and he should have some confidence here as he led the Steelers to a win over Washington last year. This rivalry has been very closely with 1 score games in 9 of the last 11 meetings. That includes last year when the Giants, who had only 3 wins, took the Commanders, who had 12 wins, to the wire in both match ups losing by a combined 8 points. Washington took the NFL by storm last year and we look for some regression in 2025. They had some breaks throughout the season facing 5 back up QB’s and they won 9 of their 13 one score games. Week 1 Divisional Dogs have been fantastic with a 31-16 ATS mark since 2016. On top of that, Washington has been a terrible favorite of 6 or more points going 6-20 ATS in that role dating back to the 2008 season. We think this one will be tight, as they usually are when these 2 meet, so we’ll grab the points.

ASA play on LA Chargers +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:00PM ET - This is a very competitive series between a pair of longtime rivals in the AFC West and points are a premium. Last year we had two low scoring games between these two with the Chiefs winning both 19-17 and 17-10. Going back 10 games we see that 8 of the ten have been one score games with 5 of those decided by exactly 3-points. Kansas City finished the regular season 15-2 SU but they had an average margin of victory of only +3.4ppg. In fact, in comparison, the Chargers won 11 games in the regular season and they had an average point differential of +5.9ppg. Los Angeles allowed the fewest points per game during the regular season last year at 17.7ppg with the 9th best DVOA ranking defensively. They allowed the 7th fewest yards per completion but had a tough time stopping the run ranking 26th in yards per carry allowed. The Chargers were around league average in terms of yards per play, slightly above average in 3rd down conversion percentage. L.A. in Harbaugh’s second year should see significant improvement with Herbert under center and capable of trading points with KC and Mahomes. The Chiefs obviously still have Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Kelce and Chris Jones and there is still gas in the tank, but their average point differential last season is a clear indicator they are not as dominate as they once were. We are going Division Dog in this one…grab the points at a FG or more with the Chargers.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys +8.5 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20PM ET - The Eagles are drawing a ton of public attention, especially at several very public sports books, so we’ll bet contrarian here with the Cowboys. Philadelphia handled the Cowboys rather easily in both meetings last season winning 41-7 and 34-6. The Cowboys were without starting QB Dak Prescott in both and forced to play Cooper Rush and Trey Lance. In the second meeting last season, in Philly, the Eagles were favored by -7.5 points which is basically the same number here with Prescott. You won’t find a ton of support statistically for the Cowboys here if you are basing your betting strategy on last years numbers. We expect the Cowboys offense to have success here with WR’s CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and TE Ferguson facing an Eagles secondary that has some holes with the loss of CB Slay and S Gardner-Johnson. Philadelphia will also have a tough time pressuring Prescott without Milton Willams and Josh Sweat on the defensive front. The Cowboys defense took a hit with the Parsons trade but they did get Kenny Clark in return who can help fill the void. Both teams have been very good playing within the Division with the Eagles 10-3 SU, +9.0ppg, the Cowboys are 8-4 SU +8.7ppg. As soon as this line moved to a TD+ on the Eagles we were betting Dallas. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch from a few years ago where KC won 38-35 despite getting outgained 417 to 340. We like the script to flip here and the Eagles to win. The value is with the Eagles here in our opinion. KC was just favored by 1 point at home vs a Buffalo team we have power rated slightly below Philadelphia yet we’re getting the same number on a neutral site here. If you simply look at the statistics, you’d be surprised the KC is the favorite here. The Chiefs have been out gained this season on a YPP and YPG basis. They also have a negative margin in terms of YPC (rush) and yards per pass attempt. Philly is plus in all of those categories and by a wide margin. We understand that KC has been winning all season despite that, but we think it ends here. The Chiefs will have trouble slowing down the Eagles running game here. KC was really solid vs the run early in the season but down the stretch they were poor allowing 133 YPG last 7 games and gave up at least 4.6 YPC in 6 of those games & only ONE of those opponents finished the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. Now they face a Philadelphia rushing attack that finished 2nd in the NFL behind Baltimore and is averaging 228 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games. The Eagles have an advantage on both sides of the ball in the trenches with one of the top OL & DL in the NFL. On that note of being stronger at the line of scrimmage, the Eagles had a YPC (rush) advantage of +0.8 while KC was -0.3 in that key statistic. They average over 70 more YPG compared to KC on offense and allow 35 fewer YPG defensively. Philly has been a dog 3 times this season and won all 3 games outright and the underdog has now covered 17 of the last 23 Super Bowls. The one true advantage the Chiefs have is Mahomes who is much better than Hurts. We get that but will that be enough to overcome the other advantages the Eagles have? We don’t think so. Philly wins the Super Bowl.

#104 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -120 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Been there and done that. KC is sitting in their 7th straight AFC Championship game and going for a 3 peat while Buffalo has never won a Super Bowl and continues to fall short in the playoffs. We like the home team with the short spread here. We haven’t been big KC fans this year as they continue to win close games but they do just that, win close games which this is expected to be. Mahomes is 3-0 both SU & ATS vs Allen in the playoffs and we think they win at home again. Both teams were fortunate last week but especially Buffalo. They played host to the Ravens and were dominated getting outgained 7.3 YPPG to 4.6 YPP but benefitted from 3 Baltimore turnovers (0 for Buffalo) and a dropped 2 point conversion by Ravens TE Andrews which would have sent the game to OT. KC was also outplayed in the stats, but didn’t benefit from a single Houston turnover and still found a way to win as they seem to always do. The Chiefs were as healthy as they’ve been all season last week with their full starting defense available and only 1 key offensive player out. They picked up nearly 3 weeks of “rest” leading into last week’s game while Buffalo had to play in both rounds of the playoffs. Mahomes has been fantastic as a favorite of 3 or less or a dog rolling up a 27-9 career ATS record in that spot. With this spread sitting where KC just basically has to win at home, we can’t pass it up.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the Eagles last week (released them on Friday at -6) and had a bit of rough luck as they won by 6 but missed 2 extra points. We’ll grab them again this week vs division rival Washington. These 2 met twice this season with Philly winning by 8 at home and losing by 3 on the road. Their road loss came with an asterisk as the Eagles led 14-0 in that game in the 1st quarter and lost their QB Hurts to a concussion. They played the rest of the game with back up Kenny Pickett and still led by 13 in the 4th quarter. The Commanders took the 36-33 win with a late TD with just 6 seconds remaining. Philly outgained Washington 5.7 YPP to 5.1 YPP in the 2 games combined and rushed for 228 and 211 yards in those meetings so we look for the Birds to control the trenches again in this one. Washington is a bit fortune to be here. They were outgained by 1.4 YPP in their win over Tampa Bay and outgained again by 1.1 YPP in their win @ Detroit last week. They have a ridiculous +6 turnover margin in those two games which is the main reason they are sitting in this spot. Situationally this is a very difficult spot for the Commanders. They are playing their 4th straight road game while Philadelphia is playing their 5th straight home game. This is just the 8th time since 2000 where a team is playing their 4th straight road game in the playoffs. The previous 7 teams that fell into that situation were 0-7 SU. Washington is also looking to become just the 2nd team in NFL history to win 3 straight games as an underdog in the playoffs. The Eagles have a few players banged up including QB Hurts but it looks like they’ll all be OK to play here. A rookie QB has never played in the Super Bowl and we don’t think it will happen this year with Jayden Daniels. We’ll call Philly to win by at least a TD on Sunday.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Philly didn’t play great last week offensively (5.0 YPP) but they still topped the Packers 22-10 due to their strong defense. The Eagles stop unit has been lights out this season ranking #1 in the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed and passing YPG allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. They’ve held 9 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or less and we look for the Rams to struggle here offensively. The Eagles might not need to do much offensively to cover this number. QB Hurts had missed 3 weeks leading into last week so he was a bit rusty but with a game under his belt we expect better results on offense. Philly should have plenty of success running the ball which is what the love to do (56% running plays - #1 in the NFL). The Rams defense ranks near the bottom of the league in YPG rushing and YPC and in their meeting in late November, LA allowed over 300 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC vs the Eagles. That was a 37-20 Philadelphia win on the road and now we get them at home. Teams that beat a team in the regular season and then face them in the playoffs are 42-24 SU in those games. The Rams are in a rough spot here with the LA fires affecting their practice time and they were forced to move their game to Arizona last week. Now they much travel across the country and play in cold weather (32 degrees and possible snow) which isn’t ideal for a warm weather, dome type team. The Rams are also on a short week playing on Monday night and now making the long travel. We like the Eagles to win this by at least a TD so we’ll lay it on Sunday.

#398 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8 PM ET - This game is being played in Phoenix due to the LA wildfires. The line was pick-em before they announced the move from LA to Phoenix. The line has moved to +2.5 which we think is some decent value as we’re getting nearly a FG more than we would have and LA doesn’t have a great home field advantage to being with. In fact, LA has a better road record this year than they do at home. They also average more YPP away from home and allow fewer YPP. The Rams have a huge situational edge here in our opinion. They had a mini bye last week facing Seattle at home and the Rams were able to sit most of their players. Minnesota, on the other hand, had an “all in” game @ Detroit which was a battle for the #1 seed and the Vikings were dominated 31-9. Now they travel again after that physical and emotional battle with the Lions. Detroit has had a rough effect on teams the following week as teams that face the Lions are 4-12 ATS the next week (this season) and 18-31 ATS over the last 3 years in that spot. LA struggled early in the year due to injuries but since getting full strength on offense with WR Kupp and Nacua back they are 8-2 (minus last week’s loss vs Seattle since they sat). They averaged +0.5 YPP more this season with Kupp & Nacua both in the line up. Their defense also drastically improved as the season progressed. After their first 7 games, the Rams allowed 2.44 points per drive and gave up a TD on 27% of opponents drives (both 28th in the NFL). Since then, they have allowed 2.04 points per drive and a TD on 22% of opponents drives (16th and 13th ranking). The point is, this team is much better than their season long record / stats. The Rams were 2-3 SU vs other playoff teams this year but they outgained 4 of those 5 opponents including beating this Minnesota team by 10 points. The Vikes were 3-3 vs other playoff teams but were outgained in 5 of those 6 games so Minnesota was fortunate to win 3 of those games. They were also 9-1 SU in one score games and despite their 14-3 record, they only outgained opponents by 10 YPG on the season. This Vikings team is fortunate to sit where they are to say the least. We like the QB advantage for the Rams as well with veteran Stafford, who has won a Super Bowl, vs Sam Darnold who looked like a deer in headlights last week vs a Detroit defense that was decimated with injuries. That dropped Darnold’s career road record to 12-22 ATS. Let’s grab the dog here.

#381/382 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - A number of key things in play here which favor the Under in our opinion. First of all, both teams love to run the ball which eats clock. The Eagles run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps (#1 in the NFL) and Green Bay runs on almost 52% of their snaps (#3 in the NFL). Both defenses are in the top 10 in YPC allowed and in the top 5 in YPP allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. Green Bay’s defense has been really good as well. During that same stretch (since week 5), the Packers have allowed teams to average 1.7 points per drive (#2 in the NFL) and 5.1 YPP (#3 in the NFL). Both teams are very slow paced with Philly ranking 23rd in seconds per play and Green Bay ranking 30th. Offensively, the Packers lost WR Watson last week and he is their big play, deep threat which should limit big plays. QB Love isn’t 100% with a arm injury but will play. His back up Willis injured his hand last week so GB has some issues at QB and we would be at all surprised if they try and run the ball more than usual. Philly QB Hurts hasn’t played in 3 weeks, could be rusty, and they may want to protect him a bit coming off a concussion. Nice situation for a slower paced, lower scoring game and we’ll jump on the Under.

#379/380 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring with Buffalo sitting at #2 (31 PPG) and Denver at #10 (25 PPG). The Bills offense has been even more potent at home where they average 34.3 PPG which is the 2nd best home mark in the NFL only behind Detroit. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 home games. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that has very solid overall numbers (#7 in total defense) but the Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games vs Bengals, Browns, and Chargers. They also gave up 41 points when they faced Baltimore, a high level offense similar to Buffalo. The Bills defense is definitely the weak spot of this team ranking 22nd in YPP allowed and outside the top 20 in most key pass defense metrics. They will be facing a Denver offense really played well in the 2nd half of the season under rookie QB Nix who played outstanding with almost 3,400 yards passing (12th in the NFL) and 29 TDs (6th in the NFL). The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games and we’d anticipate the get into the 20’s again here. Buffalo has pushed into the 30’s in each of their last 3 Wildcard games and we think they do that again here. The weather doesn’t look bad for this time of year in Buffalo with game time temps around 32 degrees and winds around 10 MPH. Not terrible by any means for 2 teams that are used to playing in colder weather. Over is the call in this one.

#363 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +3 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - In simple terms, the Vikings and Lions rate similarly in terms of offense, but the defense of Minnesota is much better than the Lions D. Detroit averages 6.2YPP on the season, Minnesota averages 5.7YPP. The Lions are averaging 410 total YPG, the Vikings put up 353YPG. Detroit ranks 7th in rushing yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game. Minnesota is 15th in rushing YPG, 3d in passing. You get the idea. The defenses do not compare as the injuries to Detroit have decimated this stop-unit. The Vikes give up the 8th fewest Yards Per Play at 5.2 and allow just 18.8ppg, 4th lowest average in the league. The Lions defense is giving up 5.8YPP (4th most) and have been especially bad in recent weeks allowing 7.6YPP in their last three games and 7.9YPP last week to San Francisco. What’s alarming is the fact that the Niners had scored 17 or less points in 5 of their previous six games, then put up 34 against this Lions defense. In that stretch of game for San Francisco the only other time they put up more than 17-points was against the Bears. Minnesota is playing with revenge as they lost at home 29-31 to a full-strength Lions team back in October. The Lions kicked a last second FG to win that game as a 1-point dog. Grab the points with Minnesota here.

#351/351 ASA PLAY ON OVER 48 Points - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons offense has produced points the last two weeks with rookie QB Penix under center. Atlanta is averaging 29ppg in his starts, 5.4 Yards Per Play and over 330 total yards per game. Penix and the Falcons offense should have success against a Panthers defense that can’t stop the run and doesn’t pressure opposing QB’s. Carolina is 32nd or last in the NFL in total yards allowed per game and 29th in Yards Per Play allowed. They give up 5.1 yards per rush and 177 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 12th in YPP offense averaging 5.9 on the season with the running game producing 125 rushing yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Atlanta is going to put up points against this Panthers defense that allows the most points per game at 31ppg. To cash this Over we are going to need Carolina to score too, and we think they will. The Panthers offense has improved as the season progressed with QB Young looking much better in recent starts. Carolina is averaging 5.1YPP over their last three games and has scored 20+ points in 5 of their last eight games. The Falcons defense is giving up 23.7ppg on the season, 20th most in the league. With both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play we expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for each team. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, they combined for 58 total points which is what we project for today.

#356 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Bengals “have to” win this game to stay alive for the playoff race + have both Denver and Miami lose. Because of that perception, Cincinnati is favored in this game by the same number (or very close) they were favored at home just a few weeks ago. In that game, which was also a huge game for the Bengals as they were trying to catch up in the playoff race, the Steelers won 44-38. Pitt outgained Cincy 520 to 375 in that win and they had a +1.3 YPP margin. The thought in this game by many will be that once Baltimore beats Cleveland earlier in the day, then the Steelers have nothing to play for because the Ravens will have clinched the AFC North title. Wrong. Pittsburgh will have a lot to play for no matter what the Ravens do earlier in the day. As of now, the Steelers are sitting in the 5th spot in the AFC playoffs which would mean they face Houston in the opening round. Lose here and an LA Chargers win on Sunday moves Pitt down and they have to travel to Baltimore for the wildcard. They surely would rather face the Texans. On top of that, Pitt has lost 3 straight games (vs 3 of the best teams in the NFL - @ Philly, @ /Baltimore, and vs KC) and no way head coach Tomlin wants them to hit the playoffs on a 4 game losing streak. He’ll play to win. Situationally it’s a great spot for the Steelers having 3 extra days off having played on Xmas Day. The weather is not going to be great with 10+ MPH winds and a windchill close to single digits. That should favor the team with the better running game which is Pittsburgh. They rank 10th in the NFL in YPG on the ground and they are facing a Cincy D that ranks 21st in rush defense. The Bengals, on the other hand, rank 29th in YPG rushing and might be without starting RB Brown for this one, facing a Pitt defense that ranks 7th at stopping the run. Pitt has been a home dog vs the Bengals TWO times since 1990 (1-1 ATS) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season the Steelers are 11-4-2 ATS as a home dog and we like them to get the outright win here.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Under 50.5 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The San Francisco offense has fallen off a cliff over the last month and a half. They have scored more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. We don’t see those offensive struggles changing here vs a Detroit defense that is getting healthy. The Lions were decimated with defensive injuries the last month or so but many of those players are now back. Prior to their injury problems, Detroit had allowed more than 23 points only twice in their first 12 games. Then they were lit up by 2 of the best offensive teams in the NFL (Green Bay & Buffalo) which was right in the midst of their injury issues. They are #1 in the NFL allowing opponents just a 31% conversion rate and they are #4 in yards per point defense (17 yards per point). No reason to think the SF offense, which has averaged just 16 PPG since mid November, won’t continue to have problems. The strength of this 49er team is definitely their defense ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and passing YPG allowed. They’ve allowed just 4.7 YPP over their last 3 games which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span and only 5 of their 15 opponents have topped 24 points. The Niners do not want to get into a shootout here so we expect them to take their sweet time on offense to keep Detroit’s offense off the field. They are already the slowest paced team in the NFL running just 1 play every 31 seconds. Detroit is in the bottom half of the NFL in seconds per play as well so possessions could be limited here. We think this one stays in the 40’s so we’ll grab the Under on Monday night.

#424 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These 2 teams just met a few weeks ago and the Bucs were -6.5 on the road. Now laying only -8 at home which gives us some solid value. In the first meeting, TB won in OT but they outgained Carolina by nearly 100 yards and by +0.4 YPP. The 2 TB turnovers resulted directly in 6 points for Carolina. While the Panthers are obviously out of playoff contention, this is a gigantic game for Tampa. A loss drops them to less than 15% chance to make the post-season. The Panthers are off a huge home OT win over Arizona while Tampa is off a road loss @ Dallas which we think sets this up nicely for the Bucs. While Carolina has been playing better, they still haven’t found a way to pick up wins losing 4 of their last 5. They’ve also been playing at home for the most part with 4 of their last 5 being played in Charlotte. On the road this year, they are just 1-5 with their only win coming way back in September @ Las Vegas and 4 of their 5 losses away from home have come by at least 14 points. The Panthers were double digit dogs in each of their last 3 road games vs Washington, Philly, and Denver and they are getting too much respect here with TB laying only 8 points. The Cats have been outgained by an average of almost 100 YPG on the road and their YPP margin away from home is -1.1. Their average PPG margin on the road in -17 PPG. TB is the much better team (5th in YPP margin / Carolina 28th in YPP margin) and it’s a bigger game for the Bucs. We’ll call a double digit win for Tampa.

ASA NFL play on OVER 50 Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 PM ET - Buffalo Bills QB Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP this season, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had an insane stretch of games to close the gap with Allen and Lamar Jackson. Burrow has thrown 3 or more TD passes in seven straight games and propelled the Bengals offense to an average of 32.5ppg in that seven-game stretch. The Bengals and their opponent have totaled 51 or more points in five of those games. Even after a slow start to the season the Bengals are 10th in Total Yards Per Game, 7th in Yards Per Play at 6.1, 1st in Passing YPG at 267 and 6th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Cincinnati has to put up points because their defense can’t stop anyone. The Bengals are 28th in Total Yards Per Game allowed at 360, 20th in Yards Per Play allowed, 21st against the run and 26th versus the pass. They also allow 26.2PPG, 28th most in the NFL. Five of Cincinnati’s last six home games have finished with 54+ points. Denver is going to score in this game too. The Browns have scored 27 or more points in five straight games and rank 10th in scoring at 24.2ppg. The Broncos have the 10th best points per play average in the league despite being a bottom 10 team in terms of Yards Per Play. Denver is 5-3 to the Over in road games this year with 3 of the last four cashing. The Bengals game plan is simple, outscore your opponent. Denver will be forced to keep up and should have success against this Bengals D.

#405 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks -4 over Chicago Bears, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are in a freefall losing 9 straight games. They look like they are simply playing out the stretch and if by some chance they have one more “all in” game we’re guessing it will be next week vs arch rival Green Bay and not this one. Chicago had a decent stretch in late November where they took their 3 division rivals Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay all to the wire but lost all 3. After that run, they fired head coach Eberflus and it’s been all downhill since losing their last 3 games by margins of 25, 18, and 17 points. The offense put up only 14 PPG and 276 YPG during that 3 game stretch. The Chicago defense, that looked solid early in the year, looks like they’ve run out of gas as well, allowing at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games. We’re not sure the Bears can keep up here. Seattle is coming off a tight 27-24 loss vs Minnesota last week in a game they outgained the Vikings 6.0 YPP to 4.8 YPP, outrushed them 3.9 YPC to 3.4 YPC and also had an edge in yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 5.7). Seattle is still alive in the playoff race but they have to win here and hope the Rams lose @ New England on Saturday. They’ve been much better on the road this year with a 5-1 SU record (3-6 SU at home) and their only road loss came @ Detroit. The Seahawks have a +5 PPG point differential on the road and +0.5 YPP margin. Chicago has the worst YPP margin in the NFL (-1.3), they have an interim coach that will be gone at the end of the year, and they look like they are just playing out the season. We’ll take Seattle.

#402 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +3 -120 over Kansas City Chiefs, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - We were on Houston last week vs KC and picked up a loss with KC winning 27-19 as a 3.5 point home favorite. The yardage was dead even in that game (5.8 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but Houston had 2 turnovers (0 for KC) which was the difference. The turning point in that game happened in the 3rd quarter when Houston scored to seemingly tie the game at 17-16 (they missed the XP) but the Texans lost top WR Dell on a gruesome injury on that TD. Houston QB Stroud admitted that he wasn’t very focused on the game moving forward after the injury which was evident as the Texans had only 48 total yards from that point on (11:00 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter). Now the Chiefs are in a tough spot traveling on a very short week to Pittsburgh to face a motivated Steelers team that is coming off 2 losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore. Both teams are on an extremely tough stretch of 3 games in 11 days which heavily favors the home team on our opinion. Pitt was on the road in those recent 2 losses with spreads of +5.5 @ Philly and +6.5 or +7 @ Baltimore. Those numbers would tell us that if Pitt had hosted those games they would have been right around a pick-em vs the Eagles and +1 or +1.5 vs the Ravens. Now they are getting a full FG vs KC who despite their record, we (and others in the industry) have rated lower than both of those teams. NFL DVOA has Baltimore rated #1 in the NFL, Philly #5 and KC #7 as another reference point. Just 2 weeks ago the Chiefs were favored by -4.5 @ Cleveland and now laying nearly that number @ Pittsburgh? Either way, too many points here. Especially with Pittsburgh getting healthy. Top WR Pickens missed the last 2 games and has a solid chance to play here along with some key defensive players that have been banged up. KC continues to have the best record in the NFL despite being outgained on the season (-0.1 YPP). Their point differential is just 9th in the NFL and they are averaging just 5.0 YPP and 328 YPG on the road this season. Pitt was 5-0 ATS as a dog this year prior to their last 2 contests (now 5-2) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season they are 11-3-2 ATS as a home dog. We like Pittsburgh on Xmas Day!