#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - 2 high level defensive teams and 2 offenses that love to run the ball could make for a “shortened” Super Bowl. Seattle’s defense has allowed 33 total points in the playoffs (2 games) and New England allowed 26 total points (3 games). The Seahawks are 4th in YPP allowed, 4th in defensive success rate, 2nd in yards per pass attempt and 1st in yards per rush attempt. They’ve allowed a TD on just 15% of opponent’s possessions (1st in the NFL). They’ll be facing a Patriot offense that has hit a wall in the playoffs. They are averaging just 18 PPG in their 3 post season games, mainly because they final played some defenses with a pulse. In fact, the 3 best defenses the Pats have faced this season were their 3 playoff games vs the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. Seattle is absolutely on the same level as those 3 and arguably the best defense New England will have faced (Seahawks defense is #1 DVOA). During the regular season, the average defense the Patriots faced was ranked 19th in total D. They were averaging 2.40 points per drive during the regular season and that has dropped to 1.24 points per drive which is actually 12th out of the 14 playoff teams (in playoff games). The Pats offensive line has been atrocious in the playoffs giving up 15 sacks in their 3 games. It won’t get any easier here as QB Maye has a bad shoulder and Seattle’s defense who ranks top 10 in sacks per game. Don’t be surprised of they lean heavily on their running game which they’ve done all season (5th in rush percentage). Seattle’s offense loves to run as well ranking 2nd in rush percentage so we look for a lot of ground game here which eats clock and shortens the game. The Seahawk offense has only faced 3 top 10 defenses since week 8, two of those were vs the Rams who although ranked in the top 10 defensive, they were nowhere near that level down the stretch. The other top D they faced was Minnesota who held Seattle to just 3.5 YPP (lowest of the season for Seattle) and 19 offensive points. They won’t go crazy on a New England defense that ranks 7th in YPP allowed and has given up just 1.40 points per drive this season (3rd in the NFL). Lastly, these 2 offenses are among the slowest paced in the NFL ranking 28th and 29th in seconds per play. We’ll grab the Under.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - The Broncos lost starting QB Nix to an ankle injury in the Divisional round and he is done for the season. They now turn to back up Jarrett Stidham who is a 6 year NFL veteran and has been the back up for 3 years in Denver so he’s more than familiar with head coach Sean Payton’s system. We like the fact that the Bronco staff has a full week to get him ready and set up a gameplan and the New England defense really doesn’t know what they are preparing to face. This line has moved too much based on that injury in our opinion. Denver was going to be a 1.5 to 2 point favorite vs New England with Nix at QB and now +4.5? That’s nearly a TD move and let’s face it, Nix is a pretty average QB ranking 25th in completion percentage, 25th in passer rating, and 15th in QBR. This team leans on their defense and that hasn’t changed. They rank #1 in YPP allowed, #2 in YPG allowed and rushing YPG allowed, and #3 in scoring. Denver is also the best pass rushing team in the NFL (sacks per game and sack percentage) and the Pats have really struggled with that so far in the playoffs. After facing a number of poor defenses this year due to their light schedule (worst in the NFL), New England finally faced 2 high level defenses in the Chargers and Texans in the playoffs (the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season) and allowed 10 combined sacks and 16 TFL’s in those games. They’ll struggle to keep QB Maye clean in this one and running on this Denver team is tough as they allow just 96 YPG rushing (2nd in the NFL). Last week Maye had only 168 yards passing and the Pats totaled only 248 yards on 3.9 YPP but benefited from 5 Houston turnovers including a pick 6. The Patriots now go on the road for the first time in the playoffs with Maye making his first ever playoff road start vs one of the best defenses in the league. NFL playoff home dogs of 4 points or more are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years and home teams in the AFC Championship round are 30-15 SU. The Broncos also have an extra day of rest playing last Saturday (Pats played on Sunday) and while that may not seem like a huge deal, teams with the extra rest in the Championship round are 27-17 SU and if they are at home that improves to 21-7. We think this game goes to the wire and we like Denver and the points at home.

#287 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +7.5 over Indiana, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Hoosiers have been good to us in their playoff run (we used them in both games and won) but now they’re getting too much respect in our opinion. From a pure line value situation, the Canes are definitely the play here. Indiana was a 7.5 point favorite in their first CFP game vs Alabama who we have power rated a full TD less then the Canes. But in this game, Miami is a larger dog than Bama was vs IU? In their most recent game, the Hoosiers were 3.5 point favorite vs Oregon, a team we have rated almost dead with Miami yet the Cants are getting 5 more points in this game? You get the point. Now the Hoosiers rolled in those 2 games but Alabama wasn’t good enough to be in the playoffs and shouldn’t have been with 3 losses. The Oregon win got out of control quickly with IU taking a pick 6 to the house on the first play of the game and on top of that had TD drives of 3 yards, 4 yards, and 19 yards following Duck turnovers. The Hoosiers jumped out to a big lead because of that and Oregon was chasing the whole game and it basically took the Duck rushing attack out of play. From a pure yardage vantage point, the Ducks actually outgained IU 378 to 362. Let’s not discount what Miami has done in the CFB. Won @ Texas A&M, beat Ohio State, and then topped an Ole Miss team that beat Georgia in their previous CFP game. They’ve definitely had the tougher route in the playoffs to this point and proven they can take down anyone. The Canes defense is elite allowing 44 points in their 3 playoff games (14 PPG). Miami is as good as any team in the country on the offensive and defensive lines so we don’t see IU with an advantage there as they had in their first 2 games. If the Hurricanes can establish a running game, they’ve averaged 175 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games, and not turn the ball over they’ve got a shot at the upset. Veteran QB Beck can definitely do enough to keep them in this game if complimented with an adequate run game. Let’s also not forget, this game is in Hard Rock Stadium which is Miami’s home field. The Canes were tabbed as underdogs in 3 of their 15 games this season and won all 3 outright. They are as talented as any team in the country and we think they give Indiana a run here. Take the points.

#387/388 ASA PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Houston Texans vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the LA Chargers vs New England total Under last week and we see a similar situation this week. That game ended with the Pats winning 16-3 and while we expect Houston’s offense to be better than that, we don’t think this gets into the 40’s. Houston’s defense is better than the Chargers who held the Patriots in check last week. The Texans have the #2 defense in the NFL per DVOA and they’ve allowed more than 21 points in just 3 of their 18 games this season. Houston also leads the NFL in defensive success rate and allows the fewest points per drive. They’ve only allowed points on 27% of their opponents possessions which is also best in the NFL. Offensively, the Texans are pretty average. They put up 30 points last week vs Pittsburgh (30-6 win) but 14 of those points came on defensive scores. They are 25th in YPP on offense and struggle to score TD’s in the redzone with a 47% TD rate which is 4th worst in the league. They will also be without one of their top offensive weapons with WR Nico Collins out for this game. The Pats defense held the Chargers to 3 points on 3.5 YPP and while Houston’s offense should be better here, it’s not a huge step up by any means. The Pats offense is very good but as we’ve discussed in the past, they’ve faced a very weak schedule of defensive teams. The Chargers (last week) were the highest rated D that New England has faced this season and they put up 16 points. Now they take another step up facing a Houston defense that is better than the Chargers. Similar to last week’s New England game, we have 2 slow paced teams as well (21st and 29th in seconds per play) which will limit possessions. This one smells like a 17-14 type game to us and we’ll jump on the Under.

#389/390 ASA PLAY ON Under 45 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Saturday at 8 PM ET - These 2 NFC West rivals faced off twice this season and scored 47 total points in BOTH games combined. In week 1 of the season the Niners topped Seattle on the road 17-13 and then in the final week of the season in a winner take all match up for the division title, Seattle won 13-3. In those 2 games, the offenses combined to average only 287 YPG on just 4.7 YPP. We don’t see anything changing in this match up. Seattle’s defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season. They are rated as the #1 defense in the NFL per DVOA (advanced metric), 1st in opponent’s 3rd down conversion rate (just 32%), 2nd in scoring allowing 17.2 PPG and 2nd in YPP allowed at 4.6. Seattle allowed more than 20 points in a game just 4 times this season. While SF’s offense was potent at times this season, the Seahawks have been their kryptonite as they’ve scored a total of 20 points in their 2 games. The Niners faced 8 teams that were top 10 DVOA defense this year and averaged 19 PPG in those games. They will also be without one of the key weapons as TE Kittle was injured last week @ Philly and is done for the year. On the other side, San Fran’s defense has been up and down all season, however they are peaking right now allowing 13 and 19 points their last 2 games (vs Seattle & Philly) and they held the Seahawks to 26 total points in their 2 games. They’ve allowed 24 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Seattle’s offense loves to run the ball (3rd in rushing attempts per game) and that shouldn’t change here. QB Darnold will go in this one but has an injured oblique to you can bet they’ll try and protect him if they can run the ball and eat clock. They ran it 39 times @ SF a few weeks ago and we see a similar situation here. These teams know each other very well and low scoring games have been the norm. 7 of the last 9 meetings have failed to reach 45 points and this one won’t be any different. Let’s grab the Under.

#385/386 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Not a great night weather wise for the offenses with windchill in the 20’s and 10 to 15 MPH wind with gusts into the 20 MPH range. The Unders have gone 3-2 in the 5 Wild Card games thus far and we expect a grinder here. Outdoor Unders in the Wild Card round are now 52-25 since 2004. Neither offense operates at a high level with the Texans ranking 25th in YPP and the Steelers 21st. Big plays will be few and far between with The Steelers averaged 10.6 plays of 10 or more yards per game (27th in the NFL) and the Texans average 11.2 per game (24th). These 2 teams have the lowest offensive success rates in the postseason, both ranking outside the top 20. Neither team is great at converting on 3rd down with Pittsburgh ranking 15th and Houston 23rd and they reach 3rd down quite often. They both reach 3rd down on right around 50% of their sets of downs ranking 27th and 28th in the NFL. Defensively Houston is elite ranking #1 in total defense and EPA per play while allowing only 1.52 points per drive (2nd in the NFL). Pittsburgh’s total defense numbers aren’t great (25th) but they’ve been able to limit opponents scoring ranking 17th in that category and they give up 2.10 points per drive which is 14th best. Both are efficient defensively ranking in the top 5 in opponents yards per point. We expect Pittsburgh’s offense to have a really tough time moving the ball and putting points on the board in this game. On the other side, while the Steelers defensive numbers overall are great as we mentioned, they faced 7 offenses this year ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in YPP (Houston is 25th) the Steelers allowed an average of 20 PPG in those games. We’ll go Under in this one.

#383 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Chargers defense has been lights out this season and we expect them to keep this game close throughout. LA has allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 10 games. They finished the season top 10 in opponents TD’s per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive. Almost 40% of their opponents drives failed to gain a first down which was tops in the NFL. New England had a stellar season but let’s not forget they faced the easiest schedule in the NFL by far. In fact, per the DVOA metric, the Patriot’s schedule this season was the 3rd easiest in NFL history. They faced THREE teams that ended the year with a winning record and lost 2 of those games splitting with Buffalo and losing vs Pittsburgh. If you look at the top 20 DVOA NFL teams this season (advanced metric) the Patriots played only 6 of those teams (least in the NFL) and their largest margin of victory in any of those games was 5 points. It’s been a great season but this is a fairly inexperienced team that isn’t used to being in the playoffs vs a team that has been in the playoffs and has extra motivation after losing in the Wild Card round last year @ Houston. In fact, Wild Card teams that were in the playoffs last season (LA Chargers) and are underdogs vs teams that were not in the playoffs last year (New England) are 21-2 ATS since 2013 covering by an average of more than 7 PPG. Another strong trend we have going for us here is the QB situation. The Pats Drake Maye has had a great season but he’s never played in a playoff game and Justin Herbert has. Those first time playoff QB’s facing a QB that has been in the playoffs are 20-40 both SU & ATS since 2002. Experience at that position matters this time of year. On top of that, the Patriots have to face a legit high level QB which didn’t happen much this season. In fact, they faced a team’s back up QB on a whopping 61% of their defensive snaps this season which was by far the most in the NFL. The Chargers weakness on offense this year was protecting Herbert. They were solid in run blocking (12th in rushing) but not great in pass blocking. That may cost them down the line but shouldn’t be an big issue here vs a New England defense that finished 24th in pressure rate despite playing the lightest schedule in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, New England thrived on big plays and the Chargers defense was one of the best in the NFL at limiting explosive plays this season. If LA can run the ball and not be one dimensional on offense, they have a great shot to win this game outright. We’re getting more than a FG here and we’ll take the points.

#383/384 ASA PLAY ON Under 46 Points – LA Chargers vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The weather on Sunday night in the Boston area will be cold and windy, not conducive to scoring points. We have 2 top 10 defense facing off here (both total D and scoring D) and LA has allowed more than 20 points just once over their last 10 games while the Patriots have allowed more than 24 points just once in their last 10 games. Over the last 10 New England has allowed an average of 18 PPG and the Chargers have allowed 17 PPG over that same span. LA is ranked 7th in the NFL in defensive EPA and New England 11th. LA has gone Under the total in 11 of their 17 games this season and they’ve only topped 48 points 3 times this season. While New England has been involved in higher scoring games at times this season, much of that was because of their offense and not a porous defense. Problem is, their offense faced a really weak slate of opposing defenses facing only 3 teams with a top 10 D (total defense) and they average rank of the defenses they’ve faced this season is 19th. The Chargers, top 5 total defense, will be the best defensive unit the Pats have faced this season. The New England offense also thrived on creating big plays this season and they are facing a Charger D that ranks 4th in the NFL in explosive plays allowed. With the shaky weather on Sunday night in Boston, we expect both teams to lean heavily on the run game which eats clock. These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL ranking 28th (Chargers) and 30th (Pats) in seconds per play. Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games have gone Under the total at a 68% rate (49-23 to the Under). When the total is set at 41 or other in those games, the Under hits at a 75% rate. We don’t see either team getting to the mid 20’s offensively in this game which leads us to an Under.

#375 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -10.5 over Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two met on November 30th in Charlotte and the Panthers pulled the 31-28 win as a 10 point dog. Despite the loss, the Rams dominated the stat sheet averaging 7.4 YPP (their 4th highest mark of the season) to just 5.8 YPP for the Panthers. LA controlled the trenches as well averaging over 7.0 YPC on the ground to just 4.1 for Carolina. Turnovers were the problem for the Rams as they had 3 giveaways to 0 for the Panthers including a 48 yard pick 6. The Panthers offense, which ranks 25th in the NFL in explosive play rate, had TD’s from 35, 33, and 43 yards out which is unlike them. They also converted 10 of their 18 third and fourth down plays which was also out of the norm for an offense that ranks 25th in third down conversion rate. Even with all of that going right for Carolina, they still only won by 3 points. The Rams were uber efficient on offense. They had 8 possessions for the game and if we take away the possessions where they turned the ball over, LA scored TD’s on 4 of their 5 drives. They lead the NFL in scoring, YPP, and EPA per play so we expect a big day from this offense. Carolina ranks 27th, 28th, and 25th in those key offensive metrics. LA had the 2nd best point differential in the NFL at +172 (behind only Seattle) and Carolina actually has a negative point differential at -69 (23rd in the NFL) making them the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential. They also have negative YPG and YPP margins on the season. Lastly, we’re getting grizzled veteran Rams QB Stafford who has started in 10 playoff games in his career vs Carolina QB Young who has never been in a playoff game. QB’s that have never started in the playoff game vs QB’s that have playoff experience are just 20-40 ATS since 2002. On top of that, teams that win the game outright are 69-11 ATS the last 80 Wildcard games. We don’t see the Panthers winning this game or even keeping it close. This is a high number but warranted and we like the Rams by at least 2 TD’s here.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -3.5 over Oregon, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Indiana over Bama and the Hoosiers dominated 38-3 holding the Crimson Tide outgaining them 407 to 193. IU had twice as many first downs and held the Tide to 1.4 YPC on the ground. Oregon beat Texas Tech 23-0 but the stats in that game were much closer with the Ducks putting up 309 total yards to 215 for Tech. The Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in the game leading to over half of Oregon’s points (13), they missed a FG, and were shutout on downs 3 times. The Ducks defense was very good in that win, however we still are a bit concerned about them on that side of the ball as they gave up 31 points and over 500 yards in their opening round win at home vs James Madison. IU has the better wins this season beating Oregon on the road, topping Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game and then destroying Bama last week. Oregon’s best win of the season was last week vs Texas Tech and prior to that maybe @ Iowa (IU won at Iowa as well). The Hoosiers already beat Oregon on the road by 10 points (30-20 final) and the Ducks had a pick 6 in that game and still lost at home by double digits. Indiana won the stats by +60 yards and held Oregon to just 81 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC (Hoosiers had 111 yards rushing). Last week the Ducks struggled to run the ball averaging only 1.4 YPC vs Tech (47 rush attempts for just 64 yards) and we think the ground game will be key here which favors Indiana. They are the better running team and defensively they allow just 73 YPG on the ground on 2.8 YPC while Oregon allows 111 on 3.3 YPC. While that’s not a huge difference we like the better team in the trenches in this one. Despite taking care of Oregon handily on the road this year, the Hoosiers still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. IU is and has been the better team all season and we’ll take them here to win, cover, and move onto the National Championship game.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at NY Giants, Sunday 1pm ET - The Giants have everything to play for here…essentially the 2nd pick in the draft next year so losing is a priority. New York is 3-13 on the year and owns the tiebreaker among the 3-13 teams. A win here could potentially drop them all the way down to the 8th spot. Dallas on the other hand is middle of the pack this season at 7-8-1 and are mainly playing for incentive bonuses or player statistics. QB Dak Prescott currently leads the NFL in total passing yards with WR Pickens and Lamb both top 10 receiving yards, so they’ll likely look to pad stats against a bad Giants defense. The Cowboys put up more yards offensively than any other team in the NFL at 399ypg while averaging 6.2YPP (4th). The Boys will have success moving the football against a Giants D that is 29th in total yards per game allowed at 364ypg and 27th in YPP defense giving up 6.1YPP. The Giants won last week in Las Vegas against a team that has quit on the season and was playing for the #1 pick in next year's draft. The Giants have average offensive statistics on the season ranking 16th in total yards per game and 19th in YPP at 5.4 so they can’t exploit a horrible Cowboys defense which is just as bad as their own. Dallas had a few extra days to prepare for this game and should get a win by a TD or more.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43.5 New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 1pm ET - This is a division game so even though neither team has anything to play for, we still expect the offenses to put up points against the other team’s defense. In watching film from last week’s games one thing is very apparent. The amount of poor tackling and lack of effort defensively is rampant with teams that have nothing to play for. The Falcons head coach Morris is coaching for his job, QB Cousins is making a statement to teams that he can still play and RB Robinson has a shot at some attainable records. The Saints were eliminated a long time ago but have continued to play well with their future QB Tyler Shough who has thrown for 2,125 yards with 9/5 TD/INT ratio while completing 70% of his passes. Last week the Saints put up 423 total yards against the Titans at 8.5YPP. New Orleans has scored 20, 29 and 34 points in the past three games and is averaging 6.1YPP in that same span. The Falcons offense has come alive with Cousins under center in recent weeks with 29, 26 and 27 points in the past three weeks. Atlanta is also averaging 6.1YPP in that 3-game stretch and let’s not forget, one of those games was against a Rams defense that is one of the best in the league. The Saints defense has been playing well in recent games, but the numbers have come against some league’s worst offenses (Titans, Jets, Panthers). The Falcons defense has given up 24 plus points in 8 of their last ten games and haven’t been able to stop anyone of late. Three of the last four meetings in Atlanta has resulted in 50+ points. With both defenses potentially on vacation already and two offenses still clicking, we expect a high scoring game.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers, Saturday 8:00pm ET - The line on this game is telling us who to bet on and it’s the Seahawks. This number opened with the Niners the favorite, yet with more money and tickets on San Francisco it steamed to the Seahawks as the road favorite. The 49ers offense has played light’s out in recent weeks with 37, 48 and 42 points in their previous three games. The problem is the defense for San Francisco has hemorrhaged yards and points in that same 3-game stretch. Seattle rolls into this game on a 6 game winning streak and has been outstanding on the road this season with a 7-1 SU record. The big difference between these two teams is their defenses. San Francisco has been below average in most key metrics for most of the season. They allow the 19th most total yards per game at 339ypg, rate 24th in yards per play allowed at 5.8YPP and get exploited through the air allowing 235 passing yards per game (25th). In their last 3 games the Niners numbers are worse, allowing 353ypg and 6.3YPP. Seattle on the other hand is the #2 overall rated defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allow just 293ypg (6th) at 4.8YPP (1st) while giving up just 18.1ppg on the season. The offenses for both teams have near identical numbers with both top 10 in total yards per game and yards per play with each scoring more than 27ppg. Seattle QB Darnold can struggle when pressured which won’t be the case Saturday. The 49ers are 32nd or last in the league in sack percentage and sacks per game. The edge for Seattle’s defense is the difference here.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Navy -7 over Cincinnati, Friday at 4:30 PM ET @ Memphis, TN - One thing we know about service academies in bowl games and that is they are all in. They only have 1 opt out so they will basically be in tact for this game as they always are for bowls. Navy has won 8 of their last 10 bowl games and service academies are huge money makers this time of year going 19-3 ATS in bowls since 2003. Cincinnati is on the other end of the spectrum. They have a ton of opt outs including a huge number of key defensive players. The Bearcats will also be without their starting QB Sorsby who accounted for over 65% of Cincinnati’s total yardage this season. His back up Lichtenberg has 333 career passing yards and it looks like he will split time with freshman Jones who has taken only 2 snaps this season. That tells us that this Cincinnati staff is looking toward next year to see what they have and maybe not completely focused on winning this game. It’s really tough to defend the Navy offense if you’re not used to playing against it. They will have to play their most focused game of the season on that side of the ball and that might be tough with a bunch of back ups. Navy leads the country in rushing yards at 290 YPG on nearly 6.0 YPC. The Bearcat D allowed 174 YPG on the ground which ranked 97th. Not a great match up. On top of that, Navy actually threw the ball well this season with veteran QB Horvath averaging over 130 YPG through the air. Don’t be surprised if Navy hits some big plays through the air vs a Cincy team missing their entire starting secondary in this game. The Bearcats D was shredded down the stretch for 36.5 PPG over their last 4 and Navy will have big time success here. The Midshipmen are viewing this as their “second” Super Bowl only behind their game with Army. We already saw Army crush a disinterested UConn team 41-16 in their bowl game. Similar spot here and while we don’t expect the score to be that lopsided, we would be completely surprised if it was. Navy by 10+ in this one.

#266 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -16 over Rice, Friday at 1 PM ET @ Fort Worth, TX - We’re pretty sure Rice won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard here. They are facing a potent Texas State offense that averages 36 PPG on 476 YPG (8th in the country). The Bobcats have put up at least 40 points 5 times this season and they’ve been held under 30 just twice vs James Madison (top 10 defense) and Arizona State. They are very balanced averaging 220 YPG rushing and 256 YPG passing. They are facing a Rice defense that ranks 127th in total defense and allowed 50+ points in each of their last 2 regular season games. The Owls defense doesn’t have a strength as they rank 95th vs the run and 127th vs the pass. They are the only team in the country to allow points on EVERY redzone appearance by their opponents this year. That’s 37 redzone trips by their opponents and 37 scores (28 TD’s). On the other side, the Rice offense is far from explosive averaging just 19 PPG this season. They can’t pass at all (97 YPG passing) so if they get way behind, which we anticipate here, it’s tough for them to come back. They’ll also be down to their 3rd string QB here, who took a grand total of 37 snaps this season, as their starter and back up have both entered the transfer portal. If they only scored 19 PPG with their top QB and a full offense how are they going to keep up in this game? The Texas State defense should be able to focus almost solely on the run here which will make it tough for the Rice offense. The Owls finished 5-7 (11th place) in at average at best AAC conference. The only reason they got into this bowl is there weren’t enough willing teams to play so they were asked. Texas State should roll in this game.

#262 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7 over Alabama, Thursday at 4 PM ET @ Pasadena, CA - We have IU closer to a 10 point favorite in this game and at -7 we like the value with the Hoosiers. Alabama is living on their name right now. This team was a borderline CFP team at best and they have a number of flaws. First, they can’t run the ball at all. They rank 122nd in rushing YPG and 125 in YPC. That’s a huge problem vs an Indiana defense that is elite. The Hoosiers only allow 77 YPG rushing (2nd in the nation) so that makes the Bama offense very one dimensional in this game. In their playoff opener, we were on the Crimson Tide and got lucky. They were completely dominated by an OK, not great, Oklahoma team, who’s offense is shaky at best. OU outgained Alabama by over 100 yards and they were held to 28 yards rushing on 25 carries. The game prior to that they were dominated by UGA a team very similar to Indiana, 28-7 and held to negative 3 yards rushing. They’ll struggle to move the ball in Indiana. The Hoosiers are top 10 in both total offense and total defense and top 6 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Many still question this team’s schedule but in their 2 games vs playoff teams, they handled Oregon by 10 on the road, and then beat Ohio State, who had been #1 all season, on a neutral site. Since Cignetti took over as head coach they are 24-2 with their only losses coming last year @ OSU and @ Notre Dame, 2 teams that played for the National Championship. When comparing the key differentials of these 2 teams, it’s not close. Indiana’s PPG margin is +31 and they outgained their opponents by 215 YPG. Bama’s PPG margin is +13 and they outgained their opponents by 90 YPG. IU is simply better on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission after getting to the Playoffs last year and losing right out of the game to Notre Dame. They now know what this situation is like while the Tide did not make it to the Playoffs last year so this spot is new to many of them. We like Indiana by more than a TD in this one.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET @ Miami, FL - Tech has been an under the radar team for most casual observers this season. Many don’t put them in the same category as the OSU’s, Oregon’s, Indiana’s, and Georgia’s of the world. They are every bit as good as those teams and better than some. Our power ratings have Tech as a slight favorite in this game and we’re grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were 12-1 SU and a CFB leading 11-2 ATS on the season. Their only loss was @ Arizona State in a game Tech played without their starting QB and still led with under 30 seconds left. Every other game this season they won by at least 24 points. Their strength of schedule wasn’t as good as Oregon, but it wasn’t like they had any close games. They destroyed everyone. The defense is as good as there is in the country ranking 3rd in total D, 3rd in YPP allowed, and 1st in rush defense. They allowed only 11 PPG this season and when stepping up in competition they held the 3 top 25 offenses they faced this season to an average of 8 PPG. The Raiders are also a top 10 offense that is very balanced (191 YPG rushing and 290 YPG passing) and they averaged 42 PPG. Not many, if any, weaknesses on this team. While Texas Tech was destroying their opponents, Oregon lost by 10 at home to Indiana and had a number of close calls beating PSU in OT, beating Iowa by 2, and holding on to beat Washington by 12 in a game that was a 5 point margin midway through the 4th quarter. Their offense clicks by being able to run the ball (217 YPG rushing) which then opens up their passing attack. They might be one dimensional here as Tech’s defense has completely shut down opposing rushing attacks with what many consider the best defensive line in the country. The Raiders are allowing just 68 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC, both tops in the nation. While Oregon’s defense has top 10 numbers, we see them as a bit more vulnerable. In their opening round game, James Madison hit them for over 500 yards. The Ducks have faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (same as Texas Tech) and allowed 30 PPG in those games. We’ve been on Texas Tech a number of times for big plays this year and won them all. Let’s do it again on Thursday.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +9.5 over Ohio St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - @ Arlington, TX - Too many points here in our opinion. Our power ratings have this line at a TD in favor of OSU so we have some value with the Canes. 2 high level defensive teams with a very low total (41 right now) makes the points even more valuable. Miami is off an impressive win as a dog @ Texas A&M. Both defenses dominated that game and the Canes rush D held the Aggies to 89 yards on 2.5 YPC. A&M entered that game averaging 188 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC so a very impressive performance by Miami who is allowing only 87 YPG rushing on the year. The Canes also beat Notre Dame this year and those 2 wins (A&M and ND) are the 2 most impressive wins for either of these teams this season. OSU was very good this year but their best win was maybe 14-7 at home vs Texas? A Longhorn team that turned out to be not as good as advertised. Maybe their win over Michigan to end the season? A Michigan program that was, and is, in disarray. In their one “step up” type game this year vs a very high level opponent, the Buckeyes lost in the Big 10 Championship game vs Indiana. OSU’s only TD in their game vs Indiana was a 25 yard drive after an interception. They did very little offensively especially on the ground where they had 58 yards rushing. Neither team will be able to run much in this game with 2 outstanding, top 10 rush defenses. Both QB’s are outstanding with Miami’s Beck throwing for 3200 yards and 26 TD’s and OSU’s Saying throwing for 3300 yards and 31 TD’s. Both complete over 70% of their passes. Miami had a few hiccups vs SMU in OT (outgained SMU by 50 yards) and vs Louisville (lost by 3 but had 5 turnovers). This team can lose focus at times during the year when favored but when dialed in, they are as talented as anyone. Canes are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year winning both outright. If both these teams are at their best, there is not a 10 point difference. We’ll take the points

#249 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +5.5 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Iowa is healthy for this one and they’ll have their full roster in tact for this game according to head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes finished with an 8-4 record and all 4 losses were by 5 points or less. That includes a tight 5 point loss vs #1 Indiana and a 2 point loss vs Oregon, both CFP teams. This team rarely loses by margin including the post-season as they are 4-3 SU in bowl games since 2017 with 2 of those losses coming by 3 points. They’ve only lost 7 games by 10 or more points in their last 52 contests and 5 of those setbacks came at the hands of Ohio St, Michigan, or Penn St. The defense simply finds a way to shut teams down. Even high level offensive teams. This year they held Indiana to 20 points (they average 39 PPG), USC to 26 points (they average 36 PPG) and Oregon to 18 points (they average 37 points). Iowa ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring D (15 PPG allowed) and they are at full strength with a full key pieces back from injury. Vandy’s offense has been very good this year but they’ve had a few bumps in the road vs high level defenses. They only faced 2 teams that ended the year in the top 25 in total defense and scored 14 and 17 points in those 2 games (vs Bama & Missouri). Vanderbilt QB Pavia had a really good year but he seems to be a bit distracted right now with his Heisman trophy presentation antics (basically ripped on the voters for not selecting him) and he has filed a lawsuit to attempt to play again next year despite using up his eligibility. We think Iowa’s defense will give him big problems. Iowa’s offense can be tough to watch at times but they did average 29 PPG this season and topped 30 points in half of their games (6). The Commodores defense is solid but not great ranking 55th in total D and 59th in YPP allowed. We think Iowa does enough on offense to keep this game close. They are 3-0-1 ATS as a dog this year and we like them to cover this one.

#245/246 ASA PLAY ON Over 61 Points – Tennessee vs Illinois, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET - Tennessee is missing some starters in this game but far more on the defensive side of the ball. The offense looks like they’ll have most of their key players in tact for this game including starting QB Aguilar who had a stellar season throwing for 3500 yards and 24 TD’s. He’ll be missing starting WR Brazell, but other than that, the offense looks good. That’s bad news for the Illini D as the Vols were as potent as they come on offense ranking 6th in the nation in total offense while scoring an average of 41 PPG. This team put up 30+ points in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Illinois defense wasn’t great this season (54th in total D) and when they tried to defend elite offenses, they stunk. They faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (OSU, Indiana, and USC) and allowed an average of 43 PPG in those games. The Vols should get plenty of chances here as they play very fast (6th in seconds per play) and they average 72 plays per game. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s weakness is absolutely their defense that ranks 85th in YPG allowed and while allowing 29 PPG. If we take out their non-conference weakling opponents (ETSU, Syracuse, UAB, and New Mexico St), the Vols allowed 34 PPG and all but 1 of their SEC opponents scored 30+. They will also be missing a bunch of key guys on that side of the ball. Illinois can score if pushed, and they will be pushed in this one. They average 29 PPG and put up 30+ in half of those games. They were shut down by 2 top 5 defenses, OSU and Indiana, and if we subtract those games the Illini are averaging 33 PPG. Starting QB Altmyer is in on this game (2800 yards passing and 21 TDs) and he should have a field day vs a UT defense that ranked 115th in YPG allowed through the air and 124th in opponent completion percentage. Weather looks decent for this game in Nashville with cool temps (40’s) but very light winds. This looks like a shootout.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams have gone Over in 4 straight games as their offense continues to be a juggernaut. They’ve scored at least 30 points in 7 of their last 9 games and they topped 40 in 3 of those. They lead the NFL in total offense, YPP, and scoring. The Rams have scored a TD on over 35% of their offensive possessions which is the best in the NFL. Atlanta’s D ranks outside the top 20 in opponent’s scoring and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Birds have faced 5 top 10 scoring offenses this year and allowed over 25 PPG in those contests. The Rams will put up points in this one as they do on almost everyone. Can Atlanta score enough to push this over the total? Yes. The Falcons have been solid on offense scoring at least 23 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Kirk Cousins has settled in at QB and had a nice run throwing 5 TD’s in his last 2 games leading the Falcons to 29 and 26 points. Cousins has faced LA Ram head coach McVay 3 times in his career and his teams have averaged 27 PPG in those games. He has a solid running game (8th in the NFL) as well to take the pressure off him. The LA D has allowed at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and with the Falcons offense humming, they’ll do enough on offense to push this Over the total. Perfect conditions in the Dome in Atlanta and this looks like a high scoring game.

#241/242 ASA PLAY ON Under 60 Points – Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern, Monday at 2 PM ET - These 2 Sun Belt Rivals met already this season with Ga Southern jumping out to a 19-3 halftime lead and holding only to win 25-23. That total in that game was set at 61 and this one is set just 1.5 to 2 points lower which isn’t enough of an adjustment in our opinion. Lots of key offensive players that played in the first match up won’t be around for this one. Especially on the App State side where 70% of the offensive production in that first game won’t be playing in this bowl game. App State’s top 2 QB’s, Kohl and Swann, who combined for 3,000 passing yards and 22 TD’s are in the transfer portal. The Mountaineers are left with a redshirt freshman and a true freshman who combined to throw for 160 yards this season in mop up duty. The Mountaineers will also be without top WR’s Barnes and Dozier who combined for over 1,000 receiving yards and 12 TD’s. ASU does have 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman playing so look for them to lean on the run in this game with inexperienced QB’s and some key WR weapons out. Georgia Southern is in a bit better shape offensively but they could be without their #1 weapon RB Arnold who is injured and didn’t play in the regular season finale. Arnold had 140 total yards in their meeting with App State this year. This is a big time rivalry game so these teams know each other very well. Neither defense has very good numbers this season but they’ll come to play here and they know the opposing offensive schemes well. The weather in Birmingham for this game will be less than ideal for scoring with windchills in the 30’s and 15+ MPH winds. Only 2 of the last 12 meetings between these 2 have topped 60 points and we don’t expect them to get there in this game.

#429/430 ASA PLAY ON Over 52.5 Points – Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - 2 explosive offenses and not so great defenses should lead to a very high scoring game in this one. Let’s start with the Niners offense. They haven’t punted since November! Yes you read that correctly. In their last 2 games they’ve scored 85 points on 18 offensive possessions. That includes 10 TD’s, 5 FG’s, a missed FG, an interception, and a fumble. Since QB Purdy returned from an injury, the Niners have gone 5-0 both SU and ATS and they’ve averaged 34.4 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Chicago defense that ranks 25th in total D, 28th in YPP allowed, and the Bears are giving up 2.62 points per drive on the road (30th in the NFL). The SF offense should continue their big time offensive success in this game. On the defensive side, the 49ers have not been great as of late. They have allowed 51 points in their last 2 games and forced only 4 total punts in those 2 games. Those games were vs Tennessee (31st in total offense & 30th in scoring) and Indy with Philip Rivers playing in his first game at QB directly off the couch. Now they are facing a Chicago offense that is averaging 26 PPG (9th in the NFL) and they lead the NFL in rushing success rate. The Bears also average 14 plays per game of more than 10 yards which is the most in the NFL. Looks like perfect weather in Santa Clara on Sunday night and we should be plenty of offensive snaps with both teams in the top 10 in seconds per play. This looks like a game where both offenses will have to “keep up” with the other and a shootout is very likely.

#430 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Niners have a lot to play for. If they win out, they lock up the #1 seed in the NFC and home field all the way through the Super Bowl if they can make it that far. The Super Bowl is being played at the home stadium in Santa Clara. This offense has been lights out averaging nearly 35 PPG over their last 5. They haven’t punted since November! Brock Purdy is back on QB and he is a perfect 5-0 both SU & ATS winning all 5 games by double digits. They are in a quite a battle with the Rams and Seahawks for the NFC West crown. The Bears most likely will win the NFC North as their magic number is 1. They just need 1 win in their final 2 games or 1 loss by Green Bay in their final 2 games. The defense has been poor on the road allowing 29 PPG which doesn’t match up well with SF’s potent offense. They’ll struggle to slow down the San Francisco passing offense which ranks #1 in the NFL in success rate. Chicago’s pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete over 66% of their passes (22nd) and 7.1 yards per pass attempt (28th). The Niners are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite facing a Chicago team that has been outgained by 1.1 YPP on the road and outscored by 4 PPG away from home. These teams have the same record (both 11-4) but San Francisco’s point differential is more than twice that of Chicago (+74 for SF and +33 for the Bears). On top of that, the Niners have a -4 turnover differential on the season while Chicago is +21 (by far the best in the NFL) yet they have the same record. That speaks volumes as to how much better SF is. If San Fran doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch here, they win this game by more than a TD.

#422 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +6 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We faded the Bucs last week and picked up a win and they continue to be priced as if they are much better than they actually are. We know they “need to” win as they battle for the NFC South crown but throw that out the window. Often times that doesn’t matter and it’s already priced into the number. In fact, in the final 2 weeks of the regular season, teams that have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive vs teams that have been eliminated have been a big time money burner. Those “have to” win teams are 69-109 ATS dating back to 1990 including 0-1 this year with Minnesota beating Detroit on Xmas day as an underdog. Tampa continues to be overpriced as they’ve now lost 7 straight ATS and 6 of their last 7 SU yet they are nearly a TD favorite on the road here? Their only outright win since October was at home vs Arizona and the Bucs were outgained 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in that win. The defense hasn’t been good (27th in YPP allowed) and the offense has tanked since October. Over their past 9 games, the Buccaneers are averaging 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the league ahead of only Cleveland, NYJ, and Las Vegas. They haven’t been explosive on that side of the ball gaining 10 or more yards on just 21% of their passing plays over that span which is 30th in the league. Miami is off back to back losses after winning 4 straight. We faded them last week taking Cincinnati who was off a shutout loss. The score was lopsided but the Fins were only outgained by 18 yards and the YPP numbers were dead even. We look for Miami to play well in their home finale coming off that loss. New QB Ewers now has a few weeks of practice and a game under his belt so improvement is expected. The betting splits are as we expected here with almost 60% of the wagers on the Bucs yet more than 60% of the money on Miami which speaks volumes. Even if the Dolphins don’t come out on top in this game, we look for it to be close so taking the points is the way to go.

#411/412 ASA PLAY ON Under 39.5 Points – Houston Texans vs LA Chargers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This one has the makings of a playoff type game and we like the Under with 2 high level defensive teams. Houston needs a win and they are then locked into the playoffs. The Chargers are already in but still fighting for the AFC West title with the Denver Broncos. These defenses are ranked 1st (Houston) and 3rd in the NFL in total defense and both our top 8 DVOA defenses. LA has allowed 19 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 including vs Dallas (top 5 scoring offense) and KC when Mahomes was still under center. The Houston defense leads the NFL allowing only 16 PPG and they’ve held all but 2 teams to 21 points or less this season. Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring and the explosive plays have not been there for either team. The Chargers have gained 10 or more yards on less than 17% of their plays over the past six weeks, 29th in the league. Houston has gained 10 or more yards on 17.5% of their plays which is 27th in the league. LA has run the ball a lot since QB Herbert injured his hand a few weeks ago. In the last 3 games they’ve run the ball on almost 55% of their offensive snaps. Houston passes the ball more often, however they are playing into the 6th best pass defense in the NFL as the Chargers allow only 179 YPG passing. Both offenses have struggled to convert red zone trips into TD’s with both in the bottom 6 in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage (TD only). Lastly, both offenses are slow paced with LA ranking 31st in seconds per play and Houston ranking 22nd. Defenses dominate here and we’re on the Under

#232 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Georgia Tech, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL @ Orlando, FL - BYU was left out of the College FB Playoff 12 team field and from everything we’ve heard they are out to prove a point here. Often times teams might be flat in this spot but the Cougars have very few opt outs (main loss is RB Martin) and seem to be all in on this game. If so, they are definitely the better team in this match up. BYU has just 2 losses this year, both vs Texas Tech, who is among the top few teams in the country. Versus the other 5 bowl teams they faced this year, BYU was 5-0 SU & ATS and outgained all 5 teams. Georgia Tech was 3-3 vs the bowl teams they faced but they were outgained in all 6 games so they were very lucky to win 3 of those games. The Jackets faltered down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that stretch was by 2 points vs a bad Boston College team (2-10 record) in a game Tech needed a FG in the final 15 seconds to come away with a win. They lost by double digits to both Pitt and NC State down the stretch and while the played UGA to a 7 point game (lost 16-9) to close out the season, the Bulldogs looked uninterested in that game with the SEC Championship game on deck. Tech’s offense might be a bit discombobulated as well losing their offensive coordinator and some other offensive assistants heading into this game. They will also be without their starting center in this game. Both offenses are solid averaging 32 & 33 PPG, however BYU has a huge edge defensively. They are allowing 19 PPG while ranking in the top 30 in total defense, and 32nd in rushing YPG allowed. Georgia Tech ranks 88th in total D, 98th in YPP allowed and 92nd in rush defense. While BYU will be without their starting RB here, let’s remember that this GT defense allowed nearly 200 yards rushing to NC State’s back up RB just a few weeks ago with the Wolfpack starter out. The Jackets biggest game of the year was the season finale vs big brother Georgia and we’re not sure they’ll be completely in on this one. Proof is in the pudding as they are 1-7 SU in bowl games following a season ending loss to UGA. We’ll lay it with BYU.

#221 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico +2.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 4:30 PM ET – RATE BOWL @ Phoenix, AZ - It looks like New Mexico will have most of their key players, if not all, playing in this game. Minnesota has had a number of WR’s opt out of this game and they may have some key defensive players unavailable as well. Much of this info won’t be known until game time but we can be pretty sure the Gophers will have more key players not suiting up in this game when compared to the Lobos. We’re fading a trend here as PJ Fleck is 6-0 SU his last 6 bowl games, however this is one of, if not his weakest team at Minnesota. The offense is not good (128th in total offense) and they can’t run the ball (103 YPG) which has been a staple of this program. If you struggle to run the ball, you better have a high level QB and Minnesota does not have that. Freshman QB Lindsey is adequate but not great and he will be thin at WR in this game. The Gophs were 1-5 vs bowl teams this season and they were outgained by 141 YPG in those games. They were outgained in 9 of their last 10 games by an average of 145 YPG and they didn’t win a road game this season. New Mexico is thrilled to be playing in their first bowl game since 2016 and they should have a solid contingent of fans making the 400 mile trek to Phoenix. The Lobos are the better running team (155 YPG) and their defense was very solid this year allowing 349 YPG on 5.3 YPP. They also had some solid road wins this year @ UCLA and @ UNLV who played in the Mountain West Championship game. The Lobos were 5-1 ATS this year vs bowl teams and we think they have a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the points.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43 Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30pm ET - The Detroit defense, specifically their secondary, has been atrocious the past few weeks and it’s led to the Lions allowing 27 or more points in 5 straight games, 30+ in three of those. Minnesota had found a groove with their offense in two straight games putting up 31 and 34 points against the Commanders and Cowboys, then QB McCarthy got hurt last week and they managed 16 against the Giants. The bright spot for Minnesota is the fact that QB Brosmer looked much better last week than he did in his previous start. Brosmer was 7/9 for 52 yards and didn’t turn the football over. Let’s not forget, the first meeting between these two teams resulted in 51 total points and then QB McCarthy wasn’t playing well and went 14/25 for 143 yards. Detroit is going to score in this one with their offense that averages 379 total yards per game (3rd) at 6.3YPP (2nd). The Lions are scoring 30.1ppg on the season which is 2nd most in the league. The Lions with Dan Campbell/Goff typically respond well off a loss and with their season on life support we expect a solid offensive showing in this one. These two rivals have combined for 50 or more points in 7 of the last eight meetings. Bet OVER.

#218 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -115 on the Money Line over California, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a home game for Hawaii and they should have a large motivational edge in this one. This is their first bowl game since 2020, they have a chance at wins for the first time since 2019 and they are hosting a Power 4 teams. Lots of motivation for this team. Cal, on the other hand, is in a bit of flux. They fired head coach Justin Wilcox at the end of the season and already hired Oregon DC Lupoi who is still coaching the Ducks in the CFP. Lupoi has started filling his coaching roster for next season, including a new offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, so many of the Cal coaches will be heading elsewhere after this game. It’s also expected a number of players will be headed to the transfer portal. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears view this trip to Hawaii as a vacation. The Bows offense often gets the accolades as they averaged 31 PPG in conference play, however the defense has been impressive and improved in each of head coach Timmy Chang’s 4 seasons. When he took over they allowed 438 YPG in his first season and this year they gave up only 352 YPG. The California offense was nothing special this year ranking 99th in total offense and 111th in YPP so they should struggle here. They also are very one dimensional as they can’t run the ball at all averaging 76 YPG on the ground, dead last in the nation. These teams have played 2 common opponents this year with Hawaii having much better results. The Rainbows beat Stanford 23-20 and outgained them 4.8 YPP to 3.9 YPP. Cal lost to their rivals 31-10 and Stanford outgained the Bears 4.9 YPP to 3.7. Hawaii also beat San Diego State 38-6 and outgained them 5.6 YPP to 4.3. The Bears lost to the Aztecs 34-0 and were outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.0. Hawaii is 6-1 SU at home this season they’ve amazingly covered 13 in a row at home. Let’s take Hawaii to win this game outright.

#215 ASA PLAY ON UNLV -6.5 over Ohio U, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The distraction meter in this game is at opposite ends of the spectrum for both teams. Ohio has had lots of external noise with the allegations of their head coach Brian Smith had a relationship with a student. There were lots of “stories” out there and after an in depth investigation by the school, Smith was finally fired last Wednesday. Meanwhile, his team has been trying to get ready for a bowl game which is not ideal. UNLV, on the other hand, has been business as usual with 1st year veteran head coach Dan Mullen leading the Rebs to another bowl game after they topped California 24-13 in last year’s LA Bowl. A win here gives UNLV their second 11 win season in school history and the vibes are high with this program. The Rebels closed the season winning 4 of their last 5 games and their 3 losses this year came at the hands of Boise St (twice) and a 9-3 New Mexico team by 4 points. Big coaching edge here with Mullen coaching in his 11 bowl game facing in interim coach for Ohio. Both teams have very good rushing attacks averaging over 200 YPG on the ground. The difference here will be the passing game with UNLV having a large edge. They rank 39th in YPG passing while Ohio is outside the top 100. UNLV QB Colandrea passed for 3200 yards with 23 TD’s and 8 picks compared to Ohio QB Navarro who passed for 2200 yards with 14 TD’s and 10 picks. The Rebs played the tougher schedule (104th SOS to 125th for Ohio) and still had the better YPP margin (+0.5 to +0.3) and better PPG margin (+7 to +5). Ohio is in the midst of a coaching search with a number of players mostly likely transferring out after this game is done. UNLV is locked in on this game and we expect them to win by more than a TD so we’ll lay it.

ASA NFL play on: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 pm ET - There is only one way to bet this game and that’s the 49ers or nothing at all. The computer analytics tell a different story on this game than the actual numbers. The Colts season long statistics would have you on them in this game as an underdog, but the QB situation mitigates that advantage. Phillip Rivers is a great story for us old guys, but the reality is that he’s 44, can’t move and has no arm strength. Last week the Colts managed just 220 yards total at 3.8YPP. Rivers had 120 yards passing at 4.4 yards per attempt. The 49ers have game film on Rivers now and know just how limited he is and D-coordinator, Saleh will have a great game plan for him tonight. The Colts defense played above expectations last week in Seattle but still allowed 6 scoring drives in the game but the Seahawks converted FG’s instead of TD’s. San Francisco is getting healthy and it’s starting to show offensively. They put up 26 points two weeks ago against a good Browns defense in Cleveland and 37 last week against the Titans. San Francisco has won 4 straight games, all by double-digits and tonight we expect a win by 7 or more points by the visitor.

#210 ASA PLAY ON Utah State even over Washington State, Monday at 2 PM ET – IDAHO POTATO BOWL - It’s really tough for us to fade Washington State here as they were VERY good to us this season including winning as our College Game of the Year. However, we feel this is spot to go against the Cougars. The Wazzu program is in the midst of an overhaul for the 2nd year in a row as head coach Jimmy Rogers left for the Iowa State gig. He’s also taking some coaches with him including defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit but Bobbit will stick around to coach this team in the bowl game before heading straight to ISU after. Not an ideal situation. Wazzu lost their head coach at the end of last year to Wake Forest in a very similar situation and they proceeded to get blasted 52-24 in their bowl game vs Syracuse. Many of the Cougar players have already hit the portal and while they will be allowed to play here if they wish, we can’t imagine this team is fully focused on this game. Utah State, on the other hand, has a number of reasons to be all in on this game. It’s their first bowl game under veteran head coach Bronco Mendenhall after missing the post-season in his first season with the Aggies last year. They closed out this season on a very solid run covering their final 4 games and taking both UNLV and Boise State, the 2 MWC Championship game participants, to the wire before losing by 3 and 1 point respectively. USU also had the added motivation of losing @ Washington State last season in embarrassing fashion 49-28. They are also playing this game on the blue carpet in Boise, a spot Utah State is very familiar with being in the same conference. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules and their YPG and YPP margins are nearly the same. USU has the coaching advantage with Mendenhall having coached in 14 bowl games vs interim Bobbit who has never been a head coach at any level. More stability and motivation for the Aggies as well in this game and we just need a SU win. We’ll take Utah State.

#126 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -7 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a 7 point loss @ LA Rams last weekend and this team has been lights out in this situation. They are a perfect 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS coming off a SU loss. They blew a 10 point lead in that game and in head coach Dan Campbell’s career, his teams are 11-3 ATS the week following a loss if his team blows a 7+ point lead. Right now the Lions sit outside the playoffs and this is their home finale making this a near must win with 2 division road games on deck (@ Minnesota & @ Chicago). They catch Pittsburgh in a rough spot traveling on a short week off a Monday night win over Miami. We were on the Steelers in that game and felt Miami would have trouble in the freezing cold weather (10 degree windchill) and we were dead on as the Fins looked like they quit in the 2nd half. The Steelers have not been great in this spot going 0-4 SU and ATS on short rest dating back to the start of last season. This game is MUCH bigger for Detroit as Pittsburgh holds a 1 game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and while a win here would be great, this division will most likely come down to the final weekend when the Steelers host the Ravens. They are 8-6 on the season but Pitt has a negative YPG and YPP differential. They rank 27th in total offense and 28th in total defense. The Steelers will most likely be without TJ Watt again this week which is great news for Detroit’s passing game that ranks 3rd in the NFL. The Lions have 5 home wins this year, all by at least 2 TD’s with an average margin of +18 PPG in those wins. Detroit is averaging 33 PPG at home this season and we don’t see Pittsburgh’s offense being able to keep pace. We’ll lay it.

#122 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +3 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention so this is a play for pride situation. We think the Cardinals have a much better chance of playing well in this game at home. Atlanta is coming off a division win @ Tampa Bay kicking a FG as time expired for the 1 point win. Now they are on the road for the 2nd straight week, in a meaningless game, with a prime time Monday night home game on deck with the Rams. We see the Falcons having trouble getting “up” and playing well in this game. Arizona will be hungry for a win at home after losing 6 in a row. They’ve played a brutally tough schedule this year (2nd most difficult SOS to date) and their 6 game losing streak came at the hands of Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, LA Rams, and Houston. They’ve been very competitive with 7 of their 11 losses coming by 1 score. For comparison’s sake, their game @ Tampa a few weeks ago (a 3 point loss) the Cards were +4. Last week Atlanta was +6.5 @ Tampa and now they are laying a FG @ Arizona on the road. In a few of their recent home games Arizona was +3.5 vs San Francisco and +2.5 vs Jacksonville. As you can see, we’re getting some solid line value with the Cardinals at +3 in this game. These 2 teams have faced off 10 times since 2009 and the home team has won all of those games. Atlanta has been a road favorite 3 times this season and lost all 3 of those games outright including @ NY Jets. Going back further the Falcons are just 5-15-1 ATS their last 21 road games as a favorite. Let’s grab the points with Arizona.

#116 ASA PLAY ON Carolina Panthers +3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - TB continues to be priced as if they are a solid team which isn’t the case right now. They’ve lost 6 in a row vs the spread losing 5 of those 6 outright. Their only win during that stretch was a 3 point win at home vs Arizona in a game the Cards outgained the Bucs by more than 100 yards. Tampa has now been outgained in 9 of their last 10 games. They’ve lost 3 games outright as a favorite just since November 8th. They are facing a Carolina team that lost @ New Orleans last week and the Panthers are 6-0 ATS this year coming off a loss. As a dog, the Panthers have beaten the Rams, Packers, Cowboys, Dolphins and Falcons all outright. Carolina is the better running team (9th in the NFL) with the better defense. Comparing the stats of these 2 NFC South rivals, the Panthers have YPG, YPP, YP rush, and YP pass attempt differentials. This game and their 2nd meeting in the season finale will decide who wins the NFC South (both teams currently 7-7). Hard to imagine saying this, but we trust Carolina right now more than Tampa Bay and we’re getting points at home. We’ll take it.

#292 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -20.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET – CFB PLAYOFF ROUND ONE - JMU stepping way up in competition here and making the long travel to the west coast (almost 3000 miles). The Dukes have played by far the easiest schedule of the 12 CFP teams ranking 105th in SOS. The best team they faced this season was Louisville (29th per SP+) and JMU lost that game by 14 points. To put that in perspective, Louisville would rank as the 8th best team in the Big 10. Oregon played the 17th most difficult schedule and their only loss was by vs #1 Indiana. Even with that tough schedule, Oregon’s average margin of victory was 24 PPG. They are top 10 nationally in total offense, total defense, YPP offense, YPP defense, scoring offense, and they rank 11th in scoring defense. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, Oregon had better YPG, YPP, and PPG differentials when compared to James Madison. The Dukes have great defensive numbers, especially vs the run, however they faced an average run offense rank of 54th this season. Oregon ranks 8th in rush offense. On offense JMU averages 37 PPG, however the average total defense rank of the teams they faced was 84th and they faced 5 defenses ranked outside the top 100. While James Madison had a great season the talent disparity in this game is immense. Oregon has 58 four and five star recruits on their team while JMU has 3. This is such a huge step up in competition compared to what the Dukes have played this season and it’s on the road. We’ll lay it.

ASA NFL play on Washington Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 5pm ET - We will grab the points with the Division home dog in this one and expect a much closer game than what is being suggested by the oddsmakers. Let’s not be fooled by the Eagles offensive outburst against the Raiders last week when they put up 31-points against a team that’s quit on the season. Philadelphia is still the same offense that averaged just 16ppg over their previous five games, topping 20 just once. Excluding the Raiders game, the Eagles averaged just 5.2YPP in their previous 5 games and have the 24th rated EPA since week 10. Washington has certainly underachieved this season but have dealt with injuries (QB Daniels) but we are betting they’ll be up for this division rival that knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago in a blowout, 55-23. The Commanders didn’t quit last week in their road win over the Giants 29-21 and will play at another level for this week’s opponent. The Eagles are 13-17 ATS last 30 as a road chalk and the Commanders are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Philly. Teams off shutout wins are typically a bet against which has us on the home dog here.

#295 ASA PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Oklahoma, Friday at 8 PM ET – CFB ROUND 1 Game - We like the Crimson Tide to get the road win in this one. We faded Bama in the SEC Championship and picked up a big win with Georgia rolling 28-7. We think the Tide bounce back with a very solid performance after that embarrassing loss. They’ve also been hearing for a few weeks how they don’t belong in the playoffs with a 10-3 record and you can bet this team will rally around that narrative. These 2 met in mid November @ Alabama and the Sooners pulled off the 23-21 win as a 6.5 point dog. That game was decided by turnovers no questions asked. The Tide had 3 giveaways and Oklahoma had 0. The Sooners scored their only 2 TD’s directly off Alabama turnovers with an 87-yard pick 6 and a 30 yard TD drive after a fumbled punt. Bama outgained the Sooners 406 to 212 in that loss. Neither team could run the ball in that game and we don’t expect anything to change here (Tide had 80 yards rushing and OU had 74). Both teams rank outside the top 100 in rushing and both defense are very good vs the run. Both defenses rank in the top 10 nationally in total D but Alabama has an edge offensive and especially at QB which could be the difference here with both teams probably struggling to run the ball. The Crimson Tide have solid edges in YPG passing, completion % and yards per pass attempt. In their first meeting this season, Bama QB Simpson threw for 328 yards and OU QB Mateer just 138. Bama gets some key offensive players back for this one as their starting TE (30 receptions this year), RB (leading rusher), and RG are set to return after missing games leading up to this one. If we get the same or similar stat results in this rematch (minus the big turnover differential), Alabama should win and move on.

#301 ASA PLAY ON Missouri State +1.5 over Arkansas State, Thursday at 9 PM ET – XBOX Bowl @ Frisco, TX - These 2 teams have played nearly the same strength of schedule this season (108th and 114th) and Missouri State has the much better numbers. The Bears have a +7 YPG differential, +0.2 YPP differential, and a +1.1 yards per pass attempt differential. Arkansas State’s numbers in those key margins are -33 YPG, -1.0 YPP, and -1.4 yards per pass differential. One down side here is Missouri State lost their head coach, Ryan Beard, to Coastal Carolina and he will not coach this game but the remainder of the staff seems to be in place. The Bears are also thrilled to be in this bowl game as this is their first year in FBS and their first ever bowl game. They should be extra motivated to win this one after losing their last 2 games to drop to 7-5 for the season. In those final 2 games the Bears played @ Kennesaw State (CUSA Champions) and lost by 7 but put up 535 total yards, outgained KSU but had 2 turnovers (0 for Kennesaw). KSU scored a TD with 27 seconds left to get that win. After that tough loss vs the best in the conference, Mizzou State threw up a dud on their home finale losing to La Tech. That gave them some motivation heading into this game. Arkansas State is just lucky to be here. They had to win 5 of their last 7 games just to get to 6-6 and qualify for a bowl. The Red Wolves won 3 of their last 5 games by a single point so they are fortunate to be here. Arkansas State beat Bowling Green in their bowl game last year despite getting outgained by 120 yards. They may not be as motivated to be here and they are overvalued right now in our opinion. We like Missouri State to win this one.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1 -115 vs. LA Rams, 8:15pm ET - It’s tough to beat a team twice in the same season, especially when the margin between these two teams is so fine. We grade the Rams as the best team in the NFL but only so slightly over the Seahawks. This scenario screams Seattle. Playing with revenge, at home off a horrible showing and playing for a share of the division lead. In the first meeting between these two teams the Rams won 21-19 but Seattle missed a game winning FG at the end of regulation and Hawks QB Darnold threw 4 INT’s. Seattle outgained the Rams 414 to 249 in total yards and 5.2YPP to 4.9YPP. Seattle is the much healthier team right now as the Rams will likely be without TD machine WR Adams who injured his hamstring on Sunday in their win over the Lions. Statistically there isn’t much that separates these two teams, so it comes down to situational advantages and line value on the home team. Back Seattle in this one.

#200 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Troy, Tuesday at 9 PM ET – Veteran’s Bowl @ Montgomery, AL - JSU should have a huge rushing advantage here and we always like that situation when we’re considering an underdog. The Gamecocks rank 5th in the nation averaging 258 YPG on the ground on 5.5 YPC. They have not one, but two, 1,000 yard RB’s this season. They are facing a Troy defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both YPG rushing and YPC. JSU’s YPC margin is +1.4 as they average 5.5 YPC and allow just 4.1. Now to the other side of the ball. Troy can’t run the ball. They rank 130th (out of 136) averaging only 98 YPG on the ground on a paltry 2.8 YPC (132nd). Their YPC margin is -1.9 as they average 2.8 YPC and allow 4.7. They only topped 100 yards rushing 4 times in their 12 games vs FBS opponents. On top of that, they just lost their top RB Tae Meadows who was their only back with more than 320 yards rushing this season. The Jacksonville St defense is decent vs the run allowing 148 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Troy may also be without their starting QB Crowder who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game vs JMU. Troy was a bit of a farce this year in our opinion. They were outgained in Sun Belt play (-70 YPG) and actually lost the yardage battle in 7 of their final 8 games yet still ended up with an 8-5 record. They did play a tougher schedule than JSU but the stat splits are quite drastic with JSU having a +0.3 YPP margin while Troy was -1.0 YPP. We’ll take the dog in this one.

#484 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Warm weather team Miami will struggle on Monday night with the temps in Pittsburgh around 15 degrees at kick with a windchill in the single digits. Miami QB Tagovailoa has 1 career win when the temperature is below 45 degrees. That win was last week vs the hopeless NY Jets and the temp at kickoff for that game was 42 degrees a far cry from what it will be like in Pittsburgh Monday night. The Fins are getting some praise for their turnaround winning 5 of their last 6 after starting the season 1-6. However, let’s keep in mind who they’ve beaten during this stretch. 4 of their 5 wins during this streak were vs Jets, Saints, Commanders, and Falcons. Those 4 teams have a combined record of 16-40. The one impressive win for the Dolphins over the last few months was at home vs the Bills which was a very poor spot for Buffalo coming off their big win over KC the week before. The Bills outgained Miami in that loss but had 3 turnovers. This is a huge home game for the Steelers who have a half game lead over Baltimore in the AFC North. Pitt is coming off a 27-22 win @ Baltimore last weekend despite running 26 fewer offensive snaps. They outgained the Ravens 6.2 to 5.5 on a YPP basis. Miami is 2-4 on the road this season with wins over the Jets & Falcons. Pittsburgh is 4-3 at home this year with all 3 losses coming vs high level opponents (Seattle, Green Bay, and Buffalo). They’ve handled all of their lower level opponents at home and also have a win here vs Indy when the Colts were at full strength. These 2 teams have the same YPP margin but the Steelers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (12th SOS to 29th for Miami). Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is nearly perfect on Monday nights with an 11-1 SU record and we like that to get the win and cover on this COLD night in the Steel City.

#480 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -11.5 over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games and ALL 5 of those wins have come by double-digits. San Francisco is in a favorable scheduling situation coming off a bye and catching the Titans coming off their 2nd win of the season, which was on the road against Cleveland. The Browns were +9 FD’s, had 412 total yards to the Titans 292YDS, averaged 6.6YPP compared to Tennessee’s 4.6YPP. Coincidentally, the Niners played the Browns in Cleveland the week before their bye and beat the Browns 26-8. The 49ers suffered several key injuries to their offense early on but are now getting healthy and they’ve been much better at home than on the road this season. The defense for the 49ers is 11th in DVOA metrics and the last two similar offenses they’ve faced (Browns, Panthers) they held to single digits. Tennessee is the worst overall defense in terms of efficiency and have the 3rd worst offensive DVOA rating in the NFL. Looking at comparative lines, the Titans were +14.5 at Indianapolis, +10 at home against the Chargers, +13 at home against the Seahawks which tells us this line is not a premium price. Lay it with the 49ers in a blowout.

#463 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -1 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a rematch from earlier in the season where the Pats upset Buffalo on the road 23-20 as 8 point underdogs. That game basically came down to turnovers as the yardage was dead even (both put up 6 YPP) but the Bills had 3 giveaways (1 for New England). 2 of the Bills turnovers came inside Patriot territory and the other was at their only 7 yard line which led to points for New England. This falls into a solid system that has cashed at almost 70% of the last 10 years. That’s simply taking a division road favorite in the 2nd meeting of the season if they lost the first meeting outright as a home favorite. That spot is 22-10 ATS. If the Pats win this game they clinch the AFC East. If Buffalo wins, they move to within 1 game of the Patriots and the 2 teams will have then split their season meetings leading to a free for all down the stretch. While the Pats are 11-2, we’re still not quite sure how good this team really is. They’ve played, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. Besides Buffalo, they’ve faced only 3 teams that are currently at .500 or above and all of those teams are 7-6 (Tampa, Carolina, and Pittsburgh). The combined record of the teams they’ve faced this season is 69-103! Both of their losses have come at home vs the Raiders and Steelers. Despite facing the much easier schedule, New England’s YPG and YPP margins are almost identical to Buffalo. The Bills have been in this spot fighting for a division title and have won the AFC East 5 straight years and they have won 27 of their last 34 division games. New England is a young team that hasn’t been in this spot. We simply need Buffalo to win this game and we think they get it done on Sunday.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Teams coming of shutout losses have been money in the bank the following week. It’s happened 4 times this season and they teams that were shutout were 4-0 ATS the next week. Long term, over the last 10+ seasons, this situation has cashed at 72%. The Commanders were blanked @ Minnesota last week 31-0 as 2 point favorites! Now they go from being favored @ Minnesota to getting nearly a FG @ NYG simply based on their shutout loss. This is an unfamiliar role for the Giants as they are 2-11 and have not been favored in a single game this season. Not only is NY not used to the favorite role, they have been terrible when laying points. They were a favorite just once last season and lost that game outright and going back to the start of the 2017 season they are 7-14 ATS as a chalk. Washington has won 3 straight in this series and topped NYG 21-6 in their first meeting this year. The Commanders controlled the trenches putting up 220 yards rushing to just 74 for the Giants. We don’t see anything changing here as Washington runs the ball well (4th in the NFL in rushing YPG) while the Giants are the worst rush D in the league 155 YPG on a whopping 5.8 YPC. Veteran QB Mariota will be back under center for Washington with Jayden Daniels getting injured (again) last week. No problem as Mariota has already started 5 games this year for the Commanders. Ugly game here with 2 teams who have a combined record of 5-21 but lets plug our nose and take the dog.

#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The forecast in KC calls for temps in the teens with windchills possibly in the single digits at game time. Not ideal for scoring to say the least. LA QB Herbert is dealing with a broken hand and last week’s game plan vs Philadelphia was very conservative with 38 runs and just 26 pass attempts. We expect to see the same type of offense in this game. The Chargers averaged just 3.9 YPP vs the Eagles and that included a 60 yard pass play. Take that out and LA was closer to 3.0 YPP. KC played host to Houston and they struggled as well offensively averaging only 4.3 YPP while putting up only 10 points. The Chiefs defense was stellar holding Houston to 4.1 YPP and in the 2nd half the Texans had 8 offensive possessions and 5 of those were 3 and outs. KC has now gone Under the total in 5 straight games and they are 9-4 to the Under this season. We expect both defensive lines to control this game as the offensive lines are in flux. The Chargers Oline is just bad with the 30th impact grade and KC has injuries up front with their staring RT, RG, and LT all out. LA is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and the Chiefs rank middle of the pack so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. Both defenses rank in the top 10 in PPG allowed. LA has allowed 1 team to top 20 points in their last 6 games and KC’s D has been lights out at home allowing just 14.9 PPG this season. Let’s grab the Under in this one.

#453/454 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Army vs Navy, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Low total as per usual in these match ups but we still like the Under. The Under in the Army vs Navy game has cashed 17 of the last 19 years and they’ve reached 40 points only twice in the last 12 years. One of those games was last season with Navy winning 31-13 for 44 total points. However, the 2 teams combined for only 563 total yards which would normally equate to around 37 total points based on the CFB average yards per point numbers. They only rank 108 total plays which isn’t surprising as both run the ball almost exclusively and they both play at a very slow pace. They rank 1st and 4th in rush attempts per game and both are in the bottom 3 in pass attempts per game. They rank 134th and 132nd in tempo this season so we expect another low possession game. Defending the option attack can be tough for many teams that don’t see it throughout the year but these teams practice against it every day, thus they defend it well. That’s a main reason we’ve seen such low scoring games in this series and in all military academy game series. In fact, if we include games between Army, Navy, and Air Force, the Unders have gone 54-16-4! Another grinder between these 2 arch rivals on Saturday.

ASA play on Atlanta Falcons +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15pm ET - The Falcons lost badly last week to Seattle, but the Seahawks are literally one of the 3 best teams in the NFL and the Bucs are not. Prior to last week’s blowout loss the Falcons had played in 4 of five games decided by 6-points or less and the other game they beat the Saints 24-10. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss to the same Saints team and are on a current 1-4 SU streak themselves but somehow the Bucs are still viewed as a ‘good’ team. How can a team be favored when they own a negative yards per play differential on the season and a negative scoring differential per game of -2.0ppg. Atlanta has a negative average margin of victory of -4.7ppg on the season but their road differential p/game is only -2.9ppg. The Bucs have failed to cover 5 straight games and are averaging just 4.4YPP on the past 7 games. Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers is 7-20 ATS as a home favorite in his last 27. The last 5 meetings have been tight between these two teams and we expect another field goal game in this one.

#145/146 ASA PLAY ON Under 42 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs LA Chargers at 8:15 PM ET - We look for both teams to lean on their running game in this one which should shorten this game. They are already 2 of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (27th and 31st in seconds per play) so the possessions will be limited. The Eagles run the ball on almost 47% of snaps which is 7th in the NFL. LAC QB Herbert had surgery this week on a broken hand so they will most likely be careful with him. Starting RB Hampton also returns for LA (hasn’t played since early October) which could lend itself to more attempts in the running game. On top of that, Philly was shredded on the ground last week vs Chicago (allowed almost 300 yards rushing) and they rank 24th vs the run this season. We expect the Eagle D to come in with a chip on their shoulder here as well after that performance vs Chicago. They have held 6 straight opponents to 24 points or less that that includes games vs Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas, and Detroit, all top 10 scoring offenses. The LA defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in total D and they don’t give up big plays allowing just 2.4 plays of 20+ yards per game (best in the NFL). They’ve allowed 20 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and during that stretch they lead the NFL in defensive 3rd down conversion rate (allowing just 26%). 6 of the last 9 MNF games have gone Under and we’ll call for another low scoring game.

#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Under 40.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This total is set very low but we still expect this one to stay Under. These 2 rivals met a few weeks ago with Denver winning that game 10-7 and neither team averaged 4.0 YPP. Las Vegas only had 188 total yards in the game while Denver had 220. It was a slow paced game with Denver running 55 total plays and Las Vegas running 52. To put that in perspective, the Steelers average the fewest plays per game in the NFL at 55. There were almost as many punts (15) as first downs (20) in that game. As bad as the Raiders are on offense ranking 30th in YPG, YPP, and 31st in scoring, their defense is solid. They rank 10th in YPP allowed and 39% of possessions facing this LV D have failed to gain a first down (3rd best in the NFL). The Denver offense is average at best ranking 14th in offensive DVOA and they’ve only played 3 games this year vs teams ranked in the top 12 in YPP allowed and scored 10, 15, and 20 points in those games. The Las Vegas offense has been poor all season ranking 31st in DVOA and they’ve topped 20 points once in the last 8 games. They’ve been held to 14 or less in 5 of their last 8. They are facing one of the elite D’s in the NFL as Denver allows 4.8 YPP (1st) and 18 PPG (4th). As bad as they’ve been on the season, they’ve been even worse as of late averaging just 212 YPG and 11.7 PPG over their last 4. Another grinder in the AFC West leads to an Under.

#127/128 ASA PLAY ON Under 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These arch rivals tend to play low scoring games and we expect that will be the case again on Sunday. Only 1 of the last 10 meetings has topped 42 points and the average total points scored over those 10 games in just 34. We don’t anticipate many possessions in this game as neither team plays up tempo with the Steelers ranking dead last in the NFL in plays per game and the Ravens rank 29th in that stat. Baltimore QB Jackson is still not 100% and the offense hasn’t been all that great since his return. In his 4 starts since getting back from injury, the Ravens have averaged only 314 YPG and Jackson has been a threat on the ground averaging only 21 YPG rushing on barely 3 YPC during that stretch. Since his return Baltimore ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA passing offense. This offense just isn’t the same without his threat to run. Defensively this team has turned a corner. After allowing 32 PPG over their first 6 games, they have since allowed just 16.5 PPG over their last 6 games. Pittsburgh’s offense is one of the least explosive in the NFL. Over the last 6 games they rank 29th in EPA passing offense and for the season only 17% of their plays average 10 or more yards (27th in the NFL). They average less than 10 plays per game that gain 10 or more yards which is only ahead of the Cleveland Browns. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 games and with huge division deciding who sits in 1st place, we look for a low scoring, defensive battle.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Seattle has been held under 26 points only once in their last 6 games and that was vs a very good LA Rams defense. They are averaging 29 PPG on the season which is 4th in the NFL. Last week they scored 26 vs Minnesota but they held the Vikings scoreless so there was no need to score more than that. The Seattle offense wasn’t pushed to score at all last week. We think they’ll be pushed to score this week vs Atlanta. Teams that come off shutout wins tend to go Over the following week as we usually get a lower total than we should in that case. In fact, NFL road teams who pitched a home shutout the previous week are 13-1 to the Over since 2017. Atlanta averages 23 PPG at home this season and they’ve put up at least 23 points in 5 straight games. They started the season going Under the Total in 6 of their first 7 games but the Falcons have since gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games. QB Kirk Cousins is getting comfortable and has been solid the last 2 weeks in his starting role with 433 yards passing and completing over 66% of his passes. The Falcons have scored 48 points in those 2 Cousins starts. The Atlanta defense was solid early in the year but they’ve now allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only team not reaching that number being the Saints who are 30th in scoring. Seattle games are averaging 47 total points this season while Atlanta games are averaging 43 total points but in home games the Falcons are averaging 49 total points. Perfect conditions for scoring in the dome and we like the Over.

#115 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is being played at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. That’s a big advantage for UGA who plays there nearly every year and just played here last week vs Georgia Tech. The Dawgs didn’t play well in that game and seemed a bit disinterested to be honest, but still came away with a 16-9 win. They won’t be disinterested here. They are facing a Bama team that gave them their only loss in SEC play. UGA was favored by -2.5 @ Alabama in that game and now laying the same in a “neutral” site which actually should favor the Bulldogs being only 70 miles from their campus. In that 24-21 loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs were outgained by 40 yards but also ran 24 more offensive snaps so the YPP numbers were heavily in favor of Georgia (6.7 PPP to 5.1 YPP). The Bulldogs also controlled the trenches rushing for 227 yards on 6.9 YPC compared to 117 yards on 3.1 YPC for Bama. The Tide are coming off their rivalry game with Auburn and pulled off a 27-20 win despite getting outgained 411 to 281 in the game. Alabama was actually outgained in 4 of their 6 SEC wins this season. On the ground, the Crimson Tide were outgained on a YPC basis in 7 of their 8 conference games. That leads us to what we think is the key in this game and that is UGA controlling the line of scrimmage. On the season they had a +1.5 YPC differential while Alabama was -0.1 in that category. UGA lost vs Alabama 27-24 in this game last year despite outgaining the Tide. In this double revenge spot, we’ll take Georgia to win and cover this one.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -12.5 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Big 12 Championship game is being played in Dallas so this should be a Tech home crowd. BYU needs to win this game to get Into the Playoffs while Tech needs a big win to make sure they sit in the top 4 giving them a bye. A win here probably does that for the Red Raiders while a big win could move them up in the seeding. These 2 met @ Tech this year (we were on the Red Raiders) and they dominated BYU 29-7. It could have been much worse as the Raiders pushed inside the BYU 25 yard line a whopping 8 times, scored 2 TD’s, kicked 5 FG’s, and were shut out on downs at the 2 yard line. Texas Tech’s only loss this season came by 4 points @ Arizona State and the Raiders played without their starting QB in that game and led that game by 3 with under 40 seconds remaining in the game. A late TD by ASU gave them the win. Since that loss, TT has outscored their last 211 to 36 for an average score of 42-7. They are in the top 3 in the nation in both scoring (43 PPG) and defensive points allowed (11 PPG). They sit in the top 7 in total offense and total defense. They have huge statistical edges compared to BYU with a point differential of +32 PPG (+17 PPG for BYU), +230 YPG (+90 YPG for BYU), and +2.5 YPP (+1.0 YPP for BYU). They continue to be undervalued covering 10 of their 12 games this season and Tech is not talked about enough. This team is good enough to win the National Championship. We’ll call for at least a 2 TD win on Saturday.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Boise State -4.5 over UNLV, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the value with Boise in this game which is a home game for the Broncos. These 2 met in October and Boise was a 13 point favorite and won 56-31 and outgained the Rebels 558 to 476. The Broncos lost the turnover battle 2-1 and still won the game by 25 points. While we don’t expect a blowout here, laying just over a FG with the host is worth a strong look here. BSU didn’t play great down the stretch going 2-2 over their last 4 games, however they were without starting QB Madsen for those games and he is now back and at 100% from what we’re hearing. He is a 2.5 year starter for the Broncos and is comfortable with the spotlight as he led them to a 21-7 win over UNLV in last year MWC Championship game. His return is key for this offense as they were averaging 35 PPG with Madsen at the helm and that dropped to 29 PPG with him on the shelf. We feel that UNLV is overrated with their 10-2 record. They faced only 2 teams in conference play that ended the year with winning records and lost to both of those teams (Boise & New Mexico). The only team that beat all season that ended the year with a winning record was Miami Oh (7-5 record) and the Rebs needed to come from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to win that won by 3 points. Both teams are very good offensively but Boise State has a huge advantage on defense allowing 100 YPG and 1.0 YPP less than UNLV. The Broncos know what it takes to get to this game and win it. They’ve been in the MWC Championship game 7 of the last 8 seasons and won 4 of those, including the last 2 years (both over UNLV). This is old hat to this team. UNLV has lost the last 2 MWC Championship games to Boise but they have 70 new players on this year’s team that didn’t experience this game last season. The Broncos have dominated this series winning all 9 meetings (all by 5 points or more) by an average score of 40-19. They’ve also won 17 of their last 18 home games and they are 51-11 at home since the start of the 2016 season. We’ll lay the small number

#103 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with JSU as a slight favorite and flipped to KSU favored. We agree with the move and feel there is still value on Kennesaw State. These 2 just met here @ JSU on November 15th and Kennesaw was a 3.5 point favorite and lost 35-26. That was KSU’s only loss in their last 10 games and their only other 2 losses this year were @ Wake Forest (10-9 final score) and @ Indiana. The Owls outgained Jacksonville State in that loss (579 to 450) and had 14 more first downs but they also had 4 turnovers (0 for JSU). Not only did they have 4 turnovers, they were shut out on downs at the Gamecock 34 yard line and missed a FG. They didn’t punt in the game and 3 of their 4 turnovers most likely took points off the board with interceptions at the JSU 4 yards line, 23 yard line, and 23 yard line. While KSU’s 3 losses were all to high level teams, Jacksonville State loss to UCF, Georgia Southern, FIU, and Southern Miss. The Owls were the better team in CUSA play across the key stats while both finished 7-1 in league play. If we look at conference stats only, KSU finished higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency, had a better point differential, and had a better YPP differential. We’ll take Kennesaw State to win the CUSA Championship.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -3 over Dallas Cowboys, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value on the Lions here. They are favored by 3 points vs the Cowboys, which is the same number they were favored by vs Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. However the Packers rate 5th in the NFL per DVOA while the Cowboys are 16th. Based on that alone this line should be higher. Detroit has fallen out of the top 7 in the NFC and would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Even with that, they are still rated as the 4th best team in the NFL per DVOA behind only Seattle, LA Rams, and Indianapolis. We’re getting the Lions at home off a loss which has been money in the bank. They are 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS the game following their last 14 SU losses. In their 31-24 loss to GB on Thursday, the stats were nearly dead even across the board, with the difference in the game being 4th down conversions. The Packers were 3 for 3 on 4th down including 2 TD’s while Detroit was 0 for 2, both in GB territory taking potential points off the board. We expect a nice bounce back here from Detroit in a huge game before they go on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Dallas has won 3 straight, 2 at home, but their road results haven’t been great. They have just 2 road wins this year @ NY Jets and @ Las Vegas, arguably the 2 worst teams in the NFL. When they’ve had to step up vs decent teams, the Boys lost by 4 @ Philly, by 17 @ Chicago, by 3 @ Carolina, and by 20 @ Denver. They have a negative YPG, YPP, and point differential away from home this season. We’ll lay the FG with the Lions.