#287 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +7.5 over Indiana, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Hoosiers have been good to us in their playoff run (we used them in both games and won) but now they’re getting too much respect in our opinion. From a pure line value situation, the Canes are definitely the play here. Indiana was a 7.5 point favorite in their first CFP game vs Alabama who we have power rated a full TD less then the Canes. But in this game, Miami is a larger dog than Bama was vs IU? In their most recent game, the Hoosiers were 3.5 point favorite vs Oregon, a team we have rated almost dead with Miami yet the Cants are getting 5 more points in this game? You get the point. Now the Hoosiers rolled in those 2 games but Alabama wasn’t good enough to be in the playoffs and shouldn’t have been with 3 losses. The Oregon win got out of control quickly with IU taking a pick 6 to the house on the first play of the game and on top of that had TD drives of 3 yards, 4 yards, and 19 yards following Duck turnovers. The Hoosiers jumped out to a big lead because of that and Oregon was chasing the whole game and it basically took the Duck rushing attack out of play. From a pure yardage vantage point, the Ducks actually outgained IU 378 to 362. Let’s not discount what Miami has done in the CFB. Won @ Texas A&M, beat Ohio State, and then topped an Ole Miss team that beat Georgia in their previous CFP game. They’ve definitely had the tougher route in the playoffs to this point and proven they can take down anyone. The Canes defense is elite allowing 44 points in their 3 playoff games (14 PPG). Miami is as good as any team in the country on the offensive and defensive lines so we don’t see IU with an advantage there as they had in their first 2 games. If the Hurricanes can establish a running game, they’ve averaged 175 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games, and not turn the ball over they’ve got a shot at the upset. Veteran QB Beck can definitely do enough to keep them in this game if complimented with an adequate run game. Let’s also not forget, this game is in Hard Rock Stadium which is Miami’s home field. The Canes were tabbed as underdogs in 3 of their 15 games this season and won all 3 outright. They are as talented as any team in the country and we think they give Indiana a run here. Take the points.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -3.5 over Oregon, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Indiana over Bama and the Hoosiers dominated 38-3 holding the Crimson Tide outgaining them 407 to 193. IU had twice as many first downs and held the Tide to 1.4 YPC on the ground. Oregon beat Texas Tech 23-0 but the stats in that game were much closer with the Ducks putting up 309 total yards to 215 for Tech. The Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in the game leading to over half of Oregon’s points (13), they missed a FG, and were shutout on downs 3 times. The Ducks defense was very good in that win, however we still are a bit concerned about them on that side of the ball as they gave up 31 points and over 500 yards in their opening round win at home vs James Madison. IU has the better wins this season beating Oregon on the road, topping Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game and then destroying Bama last week. Oregon’s best win of the season was last week vs Texas Tech and prior to that maybe @ Iowa (IU won at Iowa as well). The Hoosiers already beat Oregon on the road by 10 points (30-20 final) and the Ducks had a pick 6 in that game and still lost at home by double digits. Indiana won the stats by +60 yards and held Oregon to just 81 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC (Hoosiers had 111 yards rushing). Last week the Ducks struggled to run the ball averaging only 1.4 YPC vs Tech (47 rush attempts for just 64 yards) and we think the ground game will be key here which favors Indiana. They are the better running team and defensively they allow just 73 YPG on the ground on 2.8 YPC while Oregon allows 111 on 3.3 YPC. While that’s not a huge difference we like the better team in the trenches in this one. Despite taking care of Oregon handily on the road this year, the Hoosiers still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. IU is and has been the better team all season and we’ll take them here to win, cover, and move onto the National Championship game.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Navy -7 over Cincinnati, Friday at 4:30 PM ET @ Memphis, TN - One thing we know about service academies in bowl games and that is they are all in. They only have 1 opt out so they will basically be in tact for this game as they always are for bowls. Navy has won 8 of their last 10 bowl games and service academies are huge money makers this time of year going 19-3 ATS in bowls since 2003. Cincinnati is on the other end of the spectrum. They have a ton of opt outs including a huge number of key defensive players. The Bearcats will also be without their starting QB Sorsby who accounted for over 65% of Cincinnati’s total yardage this season. His back up Lichtenberg has 333 career passing yards and it looks like he will split time with freshman Jones who has taken only 2 snaps this season. That tells us that this Cincinnati staff is looking toward next year to see what they have and maybe not completely focused on winning this game. It’s really tough to defend the Navy offense if you’re not used to playing against it. They will have to play their most focused game of the season on that side of the ball and that might be tough with a bunch of back ups. Navy leads the country in rushing yards at 290 YPG on nearly 6.0 YPC. The Bearcat D allowed 174 YPG on the ground which ranked 97th. Not a great match up. On top of that, Navy actually threw the ball well this season with veteran QB Horvath averaging over 130 YPG through the air. Don’t be surprised if Navy hits some big plays through the air vs a Cincy team missing their entire starting secondary in this game. The Bearcats D was shredded down the stretch for 36.5 PPG over their last 4 and Navy will have big time success here. The Midshipmen are viewing this as their “second” Super Bowl only behind their game with Army. We already saw Army crush a disinterested UConn team 41-16 in their bowl game. Similar spot here and while we don’t expect the score to be that lopsided, we would be completely surprised if it was. Navy by 10+ in this one.

#266 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -16 over Rice, Friday at 1 PM ET @ Fort Worth, TX - We’re pretty sure Rice won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard here. They are facing a potent Texas State offense that averages 36 PPG on 476 YPG (8th in the country). The Bobcats have put up at least 40 points 5 times this season and they’ve been held under 30 just twice vs James Madison (top 10 defense) and Arizona State. They are very balanced averaging 220 YPG rushing and 256 YPG passing. They are facing a Rice defense that ranks 127th in total defense and allowed 50+ points in each of their last 2 regular season games. The Owls defense doesn’t have a strength as they rank 95th vs the run and 127th vs the pass. They are the only team in the country to allow points on EVERY redzone appearance by their opponents this year. That’s 37 redzone trips by their opponents and 37 scores (28 TD’s). On the other side, the Rice offense is far from explosive averaging just 19 PPG this season. They can’t pass at all (97 YPG passing) so if they get way behind, which we anticipate here, it’s tough for them to come back. They’ll also be down to their 3rd string QB here, who took a grand total of 37 snaps this season, as their starter and back up have both entered the transfer portal. If they only scored 19 PPG with their top QB and a full offense how are they going to keep up in this game? The Texas State defense should be able to focus almost solely on the run here which will make it tough for the Rice offense. The Owls finished 5-7 (11th place) in at average at best AAC conference. The only reason they got into this bowl is there weren’t enough willing teams to play so they were asked. Texas State should roll in this game.

#262 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7 over Alabama, Thursday at 4 PM ET @ Pasadena, CA - We have IU closer to a 10 point favorite in this game and at -7 we like the value with the Hoosiers. Alabama is living on their name right now. This team was a borderline CFP team at best and they have a number of flaws. First, they can’t run the ball at all. They rank 122nd in rushing YPG and 125 in YPC. That’s a huge problem vs an Indiana defense that is elite. The Hoosiers only allow 77 YPG rushing (2nd in the nation) so that makes the Bama offense very one dimensional in this game. In their playoff opener, we were on the Crimson Tide and got lucky. They were completely dominated by an OK, not great, Oklahoma team, who’s offense is shaky at best. OU outgained Alabama by over 100 yards and they were held to 28 yards rushing on 25 carries. The game prior to that they were dominated by UGA a team very similar to Indiana, 28-7 and held to negative 3 yards rushing. They’ll struggle to move the ball in Indiana. The Hoosiers are top 10 in both total offense and total defense and top 6 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Many still question this team’s schedule but in their 2 games vs playoff teams, they handled Oregon by 10 on the road, and then beat Ohio State, who had been #1 all season, on a neutral site. Since Cignetti took over as head coach they are 24-2 with their only losses coming last year @ OSU and @ Notre Dame, 2 teams that played for the National Championship. When comparing the key differentials of these 2 teams, it’s not close. Indiana’s PPG margin is +31 and they outgained their opponents by 215 YPG. Bama’s PPG margin is +13 and they outgained their opponents by 90 YPG. IU is simply better on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission after getting to the Playoffs last year and losing right out of the game to Notre Dame. They now know what this situation is like while the Tide did not make it to the Playoffs last year so this spot is new to many of them. We like Indiana by more than a TD in this one.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET @ Miami, FL - Tech has been an under the radar team for most casual observers this season. Many don’t put them in the same category as the OSU’s, Oregon’s, Indiana’s, and Georgia’s of the world. They are every bit as good as those teams and better than some. Our power ratings have Tech as a slight favorite in this game and we’re grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were 12-1 SU and a CFB leading 11-2 ATS on the season. Their only loss was @ Arizona State in a game Tech played without their starting QB and still led with under 30 seconds left. Every other game this season they won by at least 24 points. Their strength of schedule wasn’t as good as Oregon, but it wasn’t like they had any close games. They destroyed everyone. The defense is as good as there is in the country ranking 3rd in total D, 3rd in YPP allowed, and 1st in rush defense. They allowed only 11 PPG this season and when stepping up in competition they held the 3 top 25 offenses they faced this season to an average of 8 PPG. The Raiders are also a top 10 offense that is very balanced (191 YPG rushing and 290 YPG passing) and they averaged 42 PPG. Not many, if any, weaknesses on this team. While Texas Tech was destroying their opponents, Oregon lost by 10 at home to Indiana and had a number of close calls beating PSU in OT, beating Iowa by 2, and holding on to beat Washington by 12 in a game that was a 5 point margin midway through the 4th quarter. Their offense clicks by being able to run the ball (217 YPG rushing) which then opens up their passing attack. They might be one dimensional here as Tech’s defense has completely shut down opposing rushing attacks with what many consider the best defensive line in the country. The Raiders are allowing just 68 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC, both tops in the nation. While Oregon’s defense has top 10 numbers, we see them as a bit more vulnerable. In their opening round game, James Madison hit them for over 500 yards. The Ducks have faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (same as Texas Tech) and allowed 30 PPG in those games. We’ve been on Texas Tech a number of times for big plays this year and won them all. Let’s do it again on Thursday.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +9.5 over Ohio St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - @ Arlington, TX - Too many points here in our opinion. Our power ratings have this line at a TD in favor of OSU so we have some value with the Canes. 2 high level defensive teams with a very low total (41 right now) makes the points even more valuable. Miami is off an impressive win as a dog @ Texas A&M. Both defenses dominated that game and the Canes rush D held the Aggies to 89 yards on 2.5 YPC. A&M entered that game averaging 188 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC so a very impressive performance by Miami who is allowing only 87 YPG rushing on the year. The Canes also beat Notre Dame this year and those 2 wins (A&M and ND) are the 2 most impressive wins for either of these teams this season. OSU was very good this year but their best win was maybe 14-7 at home vs Texas? A Longhorn team that turned out to be not as good as advertised. Maybe their win over Michigan to end the season? A Michigan program that was, and is, in disarray. In their one “step up” type game this year vs a very high level opponent, the Buckeyes lost in the Big 10 Championship game vs Indiana. OSU’s only TD in their game vs Indiana was a 25 yard drive after an interception. They did very little offensively especially on the ground where they had 58 yards rushing. Neither team will be able to run much in this game with 2 outstanding, top 10 rush defenses. Both QB’s are outstanding with Miami’s Beck throwing for 3200 yards and 26 TD’s and OSU’s Saying throwing for 3300 yards and 31 TD’s. Both complete over 70% of their passes. Miami had a few hiccups vs SMU in OT (outgained SMU by 50 yards) and vs Louisville (lost by 3 but had 5 turnovers). This team can lose focus at times during the year when favored but when dialed in, they are as talented as anyone. Canes are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year winning both outright. If both these teams are at their best, there is not a 10 point difference. We’ll take the points

#249 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +5.5 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Iowa is healthy for this one and they’ll have their full roster in tact for this game according to head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes finished with an 8-4 record and all 4 losses were by 5 points or less. That includes a tight 5 point loss vs #1 Indiana and a 2 point loss vs Oregon, both CFP teams. This team rarely loses by margin including the post-season as they are 4-3 SU in bowl games since 2017 with 2 of those losses coming by 3 points. They’ve only lost 7 games by 10 or more points in their last 52 contests and 5 of those setbacks came at the hands of Ohio St, Michigan, or Penn St. The defense simply finds a way to shut teams down. Even high level offensive teams. This year they held Indiana to 20 points (they average 39 PPG), USC to 26 points (they average 36 PPG) and Oregon to 18 points (they average 37 points). Iowa ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring D (15 PPG allowed) and they are at full strength with a full key pieces back from injury. Vandy’s offense has been very good this year but they’ve had a few bumps in the road vs high level defenses. They only faced 2 teams that ended the year in the top 25 in total defense and scored 14 and 17 points in those 2 games (vs Bama & Missouri). Vanderbilt QB Pavia had a really good year but he seems to be a bit distracted right now with his Heisman trophy presentation antics (basically ripped on the voters for not selecting him) and he has filed a lawsuit to attempt to play again next year despite using up his eligibility. We think Iowa’s defense will give him big problems. Iowa’s offense can be tough to watch at times but they did average 29 PPG this season and topped 30 points in half of their games (6). The Commodores defense is solid but not great ranking 55th in total D and 59th in YPP allowed. We think Iowa does enough on offense to keep this game close. They are 3-0-1 ATS as a dog this year and we like them to cover this one.

#245/246 ASA PLAY ON Over 61 Points – Tennessee vs Illinois, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET - Tennessee is missing some starters in this game but far more on the defensive side of the ball. The offense looks like they’ll have most of their key players in tact for this game including starting QB Aguilar who had a stellar season throwing for 3500 yards and 24 TD’s. He’ll be missing starting WR Brazell, but other than that, the offense looks good. That’s bad news for the Illini D as the Vols were as potent as they come on offense ranking 6th in the nation in total offense while scoring an average of 41 PPG. This team put up 30+ points in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Illinois defense wasn’t great this season (54th in total D) and when they tried to defend elite offenses, they stunk. They faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (OSU, Indiana, and USC) and allowed an average of 43 PPG in those games. The Vols should get plenty of chances here as they play very fast (6th in seconds per play) and they average 72 plays per game. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s weakness is absolutely their defense that ranks 85th in YPG allowed and while allowing 29 PPG. If we take out their non-conference weakling opponents (ETSU, Syracuse, UAB, and New Mexico St), the Vols allowed 34 PPG and all but 1 of their SEC opponents scored 30+. They will also be missing a bunch of key guys on that side of the ball. Illinois can score if pushed, and they will be pushed in this one. They average 29 PPG and put up 30+ in half of those games. They were shut down by 2 top 5 defenses, OSU and Indiana, and if we subtract those games the Illini are averaging 33 PPG. Starting QB Altmyer is in on this game (2800 yards passing and 21 TDs) and he should have a field day vs a UT defense that ranked 115th in YPG allowed through the air and 124th in opponent completion percentage. Weather looks decent for this game in Nashville with cool temps (40’s) but very light winds. This looks like a shootout.

#241/242 ASA PLAY ON Under 60 Points – Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern, Monday at 2 PM ET - These 2 Sun Belt Rivals met already this season with Ga Southern jumping out to a 19-3 halftime lead and holding only to win 25-23. That total in that game was set at 61 and this one is set just 1.5 to 2 points lower which isn’t enough of an adjustment in our opinion. Lots of key offensive players that played in the first match up won’t be around for this one. Especially on the App State side where 70% of the offensive production in that first game won’t be playing in this bowl game. App State’s top 2 QB’s, Kohl and Swann, who combined for 3,000 passing yards and 22 TD’s are in the transfer portal. The Mountaineers are left with a redshirt freshman and a true freshman who combined to throw for 160 yards this season in mop up duty. The Mountaineers will also be without top WR’s Barnes and Dozier who combined for over 1,000 receiving yards and 12 TD’s. ASU does have 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman playing so look for them to lean on the run in this game with inexperienced QB’s and some key WR weapons out. Georgia Southern is in a bit better shape offensively but they could be without their #1 weapon RB Arnold who is injured and didn’t play in the regular season finale. Arnold had 140 total yards in their meeting with App State this year. This is a big time rivalry game so these teams know each other very well. Neither defense has very good numbers this season but they’ll come to play here and they know the opposing offensive schemes well. The weather in Birmingham for this game will be less than ideal for scoring with windchills in the 30’s and 15+ MPH winds. Only 2 of the last 12 meetings between these 2 have topped 60 points and we don’t expect them to get there in this game.

#232 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Georgia Tech, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL @ Orlando, FL - BYU was left out of the College FB Playoff 12 team field and from everything we’ve heard they are out to prove a point here. Often times teams might be flat in this spot but the Cougars have very few opt outs (main loss is RB Martin) and seem to be all in on this game. If so, they are definitely the better team in this match up. BYU has just 2 losses this year, both vs Texas Tech, who is among the top few teams in the country. Versus the other 5 bowl teams they faced this year, BYU was 5-0 SU & ATS and outgained all 5 teams. Georgia Tech was 3-3 vs the bowl teams they faced but they were outgained in all 6 games so they were very lucky to win 3 of those games. The Jackets faltered down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that stretch was by 2 points vs a bad Boston College team (2-10 record) in a game Tech needed a FG in the final 15 seconds to come away with a win. They lost by double digits to both Pitt and NC State down the stretch and while the played UGA to a 7 point game (lost 16-9) to close out the season, the Bulldogs looked uninterested in that game with the SEC Championship game on deck. Tech’s offense might be a bit discombobulated as well losing their offensive coordinator and some other offensive assistants heading into this game. They will also be without their starting center in this game. Both offenses are solid averaging 32 & 33 PPG, however BYU has a huge edge defensively. They are allowing 19 PPG while ranking in the top 30 in total defense, and 32nd in rushing YPG allowed. Georgia Tech ranks 88th in total D, 98th in YPP allowed and 92nd in rush defense. While BYU will be without their starting RB here, let’s remember that this GT defense allowed nearly 200 yards rushing to NC State’s back up RB just a few weeks ago with the Wolfpack starter out. The Jackets biggest game of the year was the season finale vs big brother Georgia and we’re not sure they’ll be completely in on this one. Proof is in the pudding as they are 1-7 SU in bowl games following a season ending loss to UGA. We’ll lay it with BYU.

#221 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico +2.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 4:30 PM ET – RATE BOWL @ Phoenix, AZ - It looks like New Mexico will have most of their key players, if not all, playing in this game. Minnesota has had a number of WR’s opt out of this game and they may have some key defensive players unavailable as well. Much of this info won’t be known until game time but we can be pretty sure the Gophers will have more key players not suiting up in this game when compared to the Lobos. We’re fading a trend here as PJ Fleck is 6-0 SU his last 6 bowl games, however this is one of, if not his weakest team at Minnesota. The offense is not good (128th in total offense) and they can’t run the ball (103 YPG) which has been a staple of this program. If you struggle to run the ball, you better have a high level QB and Minnesota does not have that. Freshman QB Lindsey is adequate but not great and he will be thin at WR in this game. The Gophs were 1-5 vs bowl teams this season and they were outgained by 141 YPG in those games. They were outgained in 9 of their last 10 games by an average of 145 YPG and they didn’t win a road game this season. New Mexico is thrilled to be playing in their first bowl game since 2016 and they should have a solid contingent of fans making the 400 mile trek to Phoenix. The Lobos are the better running team (155 YPG) and their defense was very solid this year allowing 349 YPG on 5.3 YPP. They also had some solid road wins this year @ UCLA and @ UNLV who played in the Mountain West Championship game. The Lobos were 5-1 ATS this year vs bowl teams and we think they have a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the points.

#218 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -115 on the Money Line over California, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a home game for Hawaii and they should have a large motivational edge in this one. This is their first bowl game since 2020, they have a chance at wins for the first time since 2019 and they are hosting a Power 4 teams. Lots of motivation for this team. Cal, on the other hand, is in a bit of flux. They fired head coach Justin Wilcox at the end of the season and already hired Oregon DC Lupoi who is still coaching the Ducks in the CFP. Lupoi has started filling his coaching roster for next season, including a new offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, so many of the Cal coaches will be heading elsewhere after this game. It’s also expected a number of players will be headed to the transfer portal. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears view this trip to Hawaii as a vacation. The Bows offense often gets the accolades as they averaged 31 PPG in conference play, however the defense has been impressive and improved in each of head coach Timmy Chang’s 4 seasons. When he took over they allowed 438 YPG in his first season and this year they gave up only 352 YPG. The California offense was nothing special this year ranking 99th in total offense and 111th in YPP so they should struggle here. They also are very one dimensional as they can’t run the ball at all averaging 76 YPG on the ground, dead last in the nation. These teams have played 2 common opponents this year with Hawaii having much better results. The Rainbows beat Stanford 23-20 and outgained them 4.8 YPP to 3.9 YPP. Cal lost to their rivals 31-10 and Stanford outgained the Bears 4.9 YPP to 3.7. Hawaii also beat San Diego State 38-6 and outgained them 5.6 YPP to 4.3. The Bears lost to the Aztecs 34-0 and were outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.0. Hawaii is 6-1 SU at home this season they’ve amazingly covered 13 in a row at home. Let’s take Hawaii to win this game outright.

#215 ASA PLAY ON UNLV -6.5 over Ohio U, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The distraction meter in this game is at opposite ends of the spectrum for both teams. Ohio has had lots of external noise with the allegations of their head coach Brian Smith had a relationship with a student. There were lots of “stories” out there and after an in depth investigation by the school, Smith was finally fired last Wednesday. Meanwhile, his team has been trying to get ready for a bowl game which is not ideal. UNLV, on the other hand, has been business as usual with 1st year veteran head coach Dan Mullen leading the Rebs to another bowl game after they topped California 24-13 in last year’s LA Bowl. A win here gives UNLV their second 11 win season in school history and the vibes are high with this program. The Rebels closed the season winning 4 of their last 5 games and their 3 losses this year came at the hands of Boise St (twice) and a 9-3 New Mexico team by 4 points. Big coaching edge here with Mullen coaching in his 11 bowl game facing in interim coach for Ohio. Both teams have very good rushing attacks averaging over 200 YPG on the ground. The difference here will be the passing game with UNLV having a large edge. They rank 39th in YPG passing while Ohio is outside the top 100. UNLV QB Colandrea passed for 3200 yards with 23 TD’s and 8 picks compared to Ohio QB Navarro who passed for 2200 yards with 14 TD’s and 10 picks. The Rebs played the tougher schedule (104th SOS to 125th for Ohio) and still had the better YPP margin (+0.5 to +0.3) and better PPG margin (+7 to +5). Ohio is in the midst of a coaching search with a number of players mostly likely transferring out after this game is done. UNLV is locked in on this game and we expect them to win by more than a TD so we’ll lay it.

#210 ASA PLAY ON Utah State even over Washington State, Monday at 2 PM ET – IDAHO POTATO BOWL - It’s really tough for us to fade Washington State here as they were VERY good to us this season including winning as our College Game of the Year. However, we feel this is spot to go against the Cougars. The Wazzu program is in the midst of an overhaul for the 2nd year in a row as head coach Jimmy Rogers left for the Iowa State gig. He’s also taking some coaches with him including defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit but Bobbit will stick around to coach this team in the bowl game before heading straight to ISU after. Not an ideal situation. Wazzu lost their head coach at the end of last year to Wake Forest in a very similar situation and they proceeded to get blasted 52-24 in their bowl game vs Syracuse. Many of the Cougar players have already hit the portal and while they will be allowed to play here if they wish, we can’t imagine this team is fully focused on this game. Utah State, on the other hand, has a number of reasons to be all in on this game. It’s their first bowl game under veteran head coach Bronco Mendenhall after missing the post-season in his first season with the Aggies last year. They closed out this season on a very solid run covering their final 4 games and taking both UNLV and Boise State, the 2 MWC Championship game participants, to the wire before losing by 3 and 1 point respectively. USU also had the added motivation of losing @ Washington State last season in embarrassing fashion 49-28. They are also playing this game on the blue carpet in Boise, a spot Utah State is very familiar with being in the same conference. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules and their YPG and YPP margins are nearly the same. USU has the coaching advantage with Mendenhall having coached in 14 bowl games vs interim Bobbit who has never been a head coach at any level. More stability and motivation for the Aggies as well in this game and we just need a SU win. We’ll take Utah State.

#292 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -20.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET – CFB PLAYOFF ROUND ONE - JMU stepping way up in competition here and making the long travel to the west coast (almost 3000 miles). The Dukes have played by far the easiest schedule of the 12 CFP teams ranking 105th in SOS. The best team they faced this season was Louisville (29th per SP+) and JMU lost that game by 14 points. To put that in perspective, Louisville would rank as the 8th best team in the Big 10. Oregon played the 17th most difficult schedule and their only loss was by vs #1 Indiana. Even with that tough schedule, Oregon’s average margin of victory was 24 PPG. They are top 10 nationally in total offense, total defense, YPP offense, YPP defense, scoring offense, and they rank 11th in scoring defense. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, Oregon had better YPG, YPP, and PPG differentials when compared to James Madison. The Dukes have great defensive numbers, especially vs the run, however they faced an average run offense rank of 54th this season. Oregon ranks 8th in rush offense. On offense JMU averages 37 PPG, however the average total defense rank of the teams they faced was 84th and they faced 5 defenses ranked outside the top 100. While James Madison had a great season the talent disparity in this game is immense. Oregon has 58 four and five star recruits on their team while JMU has 3. This is such a huge step up in competition compared to what the Dukes have played this season and it’s on the road. We’ll lay it.

#295 ASA PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Oklahoma, Friday at 8 PM ET – CFB ROUND 1 Game - We like the Crimson Tide to get the road win in this one. We faded Bama in the SEC Championship and picked up a big win with Georgia rolling 28-7. We think the Tide bounce back with a very solid performance after that embarrassing loss. They’ve also been hearing for a few weeks how they don’t belong in the playoffs with a 10-3 record and you can bet this team will rally around that narrative. These 2 met in mid November @ Alabama and the Sooners pulled off the 23-21 win as a 6.5 point dog. That game was decided by turnovers no questions asked. The Tide had 3 giveaways and Oklahoma had 0. The Sooners scored their only 2 TD’s directly off Alabama turnovers with an 87-yard pick 6 and a 30 yard TD drive after a fumbled punt. Bama outgained the Sooners 406 to 212 in that loss. Neither team could run the ball in that game and we don’t expect anything to change here (Tide had 80 yards rushing and OU had 74). Both teams rank outside the top 100 in rushing and both defense are very good vs the run. Both defenses rank in the top 10 nationally in total D but Alabama has an edge offensive and especially at QB which could be the difference here with both teams probably struggling to run the ball. The Crimson Tide have solid edges in YPG passing, completion % and yards per pass attempt. In their first meeting this season, Bama QB Simpson threw for 328 yards and OU QB Mateer just 138. Bama gets some key offensive players back for this one as their starting TE (30 receptions this year), RB (leading rusher), and RG are set to return after missing games leading up to this one. If we get the same or similar stat results in this rematch (minus the big turnover differential), Alabama should win and move on.

#301 ASA PLAY ON Missouri State +1.5 over Arkansas State, Thursday at 9 PM ET – XBOX Bowl @ Frisco, TX - These 2 teams have played nearly the same strength of schedule this season (108th and 114th) and Missouri State has the much better numbers. The Bears have a +7 YPG differential, +0.2 YPP differential, and a +1.1 yards per pass attempt differential. Arkansas State’s numbers in those key margins are -33 YPG, -1.0 YPP, and -1.4 yards per pass differential. One down side here is Missouri State lost their head coach, Ryan Beard, to Coastal Carolina and he will not coach this game but the remainder of the staff seems to be in place. The Bears are also thrilled to be in this bowl game as this is their first year in FBS and their first ever bowl game. They should be extra motivated to win this one after losing their last 2 games to drop to 7-5 for the season. In those final 2 games the Bears played @ Kennesaw State (CUSA Champions) and lost by 7 but put up 535 total yards, outgained KSU but had 2 turnovers (0 for Kennesaw). KSU scored a TD with 27 seconds left to get that win. After that tough loss vs the best in the conference, Mizzou State threw up a dud on their home finale losing to La Tech. That gave them some motivation heading into this game. Arkansas State is just lucky to be here. They had to win 5 of their last 7 games just to get to 6-6 and qualify for a bowl. The Red Wolves won 3 of their last 5 games by a single point so they are fortunate to be here. Arkansas State beat Bowling Green in their bowl game last year despite getting outgained by 120 yards. They may not be as motivated to be here and they are overvalued right now in our opinion. We like Missouri State to win this one.

#200 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Troy, Tuesday at 9 PM ET – Veteran’s Bowl @ Montgomery, AL - JSU should have a huge rushing advantage here and we always like that situation when we’re considering an underdog. The Gamecocks rank 5th in the nation averaging 258 YPG on the ground on 5.5 YPC. They have not one, but two, 1,000 yard RB’s this season. They are facing a Troy defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both YPG rushing and YPC. JSU’s YPC margin is +1.4 as they average 5.5 YPC and allow just 4.1. Now to the other side of the ball. Troy can’t run the ball. They rank 130th (out of 136) averaging only 98 YPG on the ground on a paltry 2.8 YPC (132nd). Their YPC margin is -1.9 as they average 2.8 YPC and allow 4.7. They only topped 100 yards rushing 4 times in their 12 games vs FBS opponents. On top of that, they just lost their top RB Tae Meadows who was their only back with more than 320 yards rushing this season. The Jacksonville St defense is decent vs the run allowing 148 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Troy may also be without their starting QB Crowder who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game vs JMU. Troy was a bit of a farce this year in our opinion. They were outgained in Sun Belt play (-70 YPG) and actually lost the yardage battle in 7 of their final 8 games yet still ended up with an 8-5 record. They did play a tougher schedule than JSU but the stat splits are quite drastic with JSU having a +0.3 YPP margin while Troy was -1.0 YPP. We’ll take the dog in this one.

#453/454 ASA PLAY ON Under 38.5 Points – Army vs Navy, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Low total as per usual in these match ups but we still like the Under. The Under in the Army vs Navy game has cashed 17 of the last 19 years and they’ve reached 40 points only twice in the last 12 years. One of those games was last season with Navy winning 31-13 for 44 total points. However, the 2 teams combined for only 563 total yards which would normally equate to around 37 total points based on the CFB average yards per point numbers. They only rank 108 total plays which isn’t surprising as both run the ball almost exclusively and they both play at a very slow pace. They rank 1st and 4th in rush attempts per game and both are in the bottom 3 in pass attempts per game. They rank 134th and 132nd in tempo this season so we expect another low possession game. Defending the option attack can be tough for many teams that don’t see it throughout the year but these teams practice against it every day, thus they defend it well. That’s a main reason we’ve seen such low scoring games in this series and in all military academy game series. In fact, if we include games between Army, Navy, and Air Force, the Unders have gone 54-16-4! Another grinder between these 2 arch rivals on Saturday.

#115 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is being played at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. That’s a big advantage for UGA who plays there nearly every year and just played here last week vs Georgia Tech. The Dawgs didn’t play well in that game and seemed a bit disinterested to be honest, but still came away with a 16-9 win. They won’t be disinterested here. They are facing a Bama team that gave them their only loss in SEC play. UGA was favored by -2.5 @ Alabama in that game and now laying the same in a “neutral” site which actually should favor the Bulldogs being only 70 miles from their campus. In that 24-21 loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs were outgained by 40 yards but also ran 24 more offensive snaps so the YPP numbers were heavily in favor of Georgia (6.7 PPP to 5.1 YPP). The Bulldogs also controlled the trenches rushing for 227 yards on 6.9 YPC compared to 117 yards on 3.1 YPC for Bama. The Tide are coming off their rivalry game with Auburn and pulled off a 27-20 win despite getting outgained 411 to 281 in the game. Alabama was actually outgained in 4 of their 6 SEC wins this season. On the ground, the Crimson Tide were outgained on a YPC basis in 7 of their 8 conference games. That leads us to what we think is the key in this game and that is UGA controlling the line of scrimmage. On the season they had a +1.5 YPC differential while Alabama was -0.1 in that category. UGA lost vs Alabama 27-24 in this game last year despite outgaining the Tide. In this double revenge spot, we’ll take Georgia to win and cover this one.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -12.5 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Big 12 Championship game is being played in Dallas so this should be a Tech home crowd. BYU needs to win this game to get Into the Playoffs while Tech needs a big win to make sure they sit in the top 4 giving them a bye. A win here probably does that for the Red Raiders while a big win could move them up in the seeding. These 2 met @ Tech this year (we were on the Red Raiders) and they dominated BYU 29-7. It could have been much worse as the Raiders pushed inside the BYU 25 yard line a whopping 8 times, scored 2 TD’s, kicked 5 FG’s, and were shut out on downs at the 2 yard line. Texas Tech’s only loss this season came by 4 points @ Arizona State and the Raiders played without their starting QB in that game and led that game by 3 with under 40 seconds remaining in the game. A late TD by ASU gave them the win. Since that loss, TT has outscored their last 211 to 36 for an average score of 42-7. They are in the top 3 in the nation in both scoring (43 PPG) and defensive points allowed (11 PPG). They sit in the top 7 in total offense and total defense. They have huge statistical edges compared to BYU with a point differential of +32 PPG (+17 PPG for BYU), +230 YPG (+90 YPG for BYU), and +2.5 YPP (+1.0 YPP for BYU). They continue to be undervalued covering 10 of their 12 games this season and Tech is not talked about enough. This team is good enough to win the National Championship. We’ll call for at least a 2 TD win on Saturday.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Boise State -4.5 over UNLV, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the value with Boise in this game which is a home game for the Broncos. These 2 met in October and Boise was a 13 point favorite and won 56-31 and outgained the Rebels 558 to 476. The Broncos lost the turnover battle 2-1 and still won the game by 25 points. While we don’t expect a blowout here, laying just over a FG with the host is worth a strong look here. BSU didn’t play great down the stretch going 2-2 over their last 4 games, however they were without starting QB Madsen for those games and he is now back and at 100% from what we’re hearing. He is a 2.5 year starter for the Broncos and is comfortable with the spotlight as he led them to a 21-7 win over UNLV in last year MWC Championship game. His return is key for this offense as they were averaging 35 PPG with Madsen at the helm and that dropped to 29 PPG with him on the shelf. We feel that UNLV is overrated with their 10-2 record. They faced only 2 teams in conference play that ended the year with winning records and lost to both of those teams (Boise & New Mexico). The only team that beat all season that ended the year with a winning record was Miami Oh (7-5 record) and the Rebs needed to come from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to win that won by 3 points. Both teams are very good offensively but Boise State has a huge advantage on defense allowing 100 YPG and 1.0 YPP less than UNLV. The Broncos know what it takes to get to this game and win it. They’ve been in the MWC Championship game 7 of the last 8 seasons and won 4 of those, including the last 2 years (both over UNLV). This is old hat to this team. UNLV has lost the last 2 MWC Championship games to Boise but they have 70 new players on this year’s team that didn’t experience this game last season. The Broncos have dominated this series winning all 9 meetings (all by 5 points or more) by an average score of 40-19. They’ve also won 17 of their last 18 home games and they are 51-11 at home since the start of the 2016 season. We’ll lay the small number

#103 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with JSU as a slight favorite and flipped to KSU favored. We agree with the move and feel there is still value on Kennesaw State. These 2 just met here @ JSU on November 15th and Kennesaw was a 3.5 point favorite and lost 35-26. That was KSU’s only loss in their last 10 games and their only other 2 losses this year were @ Wake Forest (10-9 final score) and @ Indiana. The Owls outgained Jacksonville State in that loss (579 to 450) and had 14 more first downs but they also had 4 turnovers (0 for JSU). Not only did they have 4 turnovers, they were shut out on downs at the Gamecock 34 yard line and missed a FG. They didn’t punt in the game and 3 of their 4 turnovers most likely took points off the board with interceptions at the JSU 4 yards line, 23 yard line, and 23 yard line. While KSU’s 3 losses were all to high level teams, Jacksonville State loss to UCF, Georgia Southern, FIU, and Southern Miss. The Owls were the better team in CUSA play across the key stats while both finished 7-1 in league play. If we look at conference stats only, KSU finished higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency, had a better point differential, and had a better YPP differential. We’ll take Kennesaw State to win the CUSA Championship.

#442 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 11 PM ET - The Cowboys lost a heartbreaker at home last weekend which dropped them to 4-7 and out of bowl contention. They lost 13-7 as a 6.5 point home favorite to Nevada. The Wolfpack, who were 1-8 vs FBS teams entering the game, outgained Wyoming and dominated the ground game 213 yards rushing to 68. A Nevada fumble led to a 21 yard TD drive which was the Cowboys only points of the game. After the game, starting RB Sam Scott summed up the feeling in the locker room, “Devasted is the word”. We don’t think Wyoming will be able to make this long travel and “get up off the mat” so to speak for this now meaningless game. The offense is really struggling scoring a grand total of 17 points over their last 3 games, all losses. They’ve actually struggled all year ranking 118th in YPP (5.1) and 126th in scoring (17.8 PPG). They’ve even been worse on the road where they average just 12 PPG. They’ve scored just 3 TD’s in their last 13 quarters of football. They only topped 17 points 3 times this year in conference play and those were vs defenses ranked 109th, 124th, and 129th. Hawaii may not have to do much offensively to cover this number. The Rainbows will be plenty motivated here coming off their worst conference showing of the season losing @ UNLV 38-10. The defense has been very solid all year and will have a chip on their shoulder here after that performance which won’t be good for the Cowboys who are bad offensively. In their 6 home games this D has allowed just 292 YPG and 16 PPG. On offense, the Bows average 31 PPG at home and they are 5-1 on the island. In their most recent home game, they smoked the best team in the MWC, San Diego State, by a final score of 38-6. The Rainbows, with a 7-3 record, will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2020. They’ve had an extra day to prepare (played last Friday and Wyoming played Saturday) and will want to go out on a high note on Senior Day before they play in their bowl game. The game is a sellout so the atmosphere for this home game should be good. Let’s lay it.

#438 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -13.5 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a revenger from a few weeks ago when Washington State traveled to Oregon State and lost 10-7 as a 3.5 point favorite. Wazzu dominated the stats (+100 yards) and outgained the Beavers by +1.5 YPP in that loss. The Cougars had 2 turnovers in the game (0 for OSU) and they were shutout on downs twice inside Beaver territory. Washington State bounced back from that loss with an easy 28-3 win the following week at home vs La Tech (we were on Wazzu in that one). They lost last week at James Madison, who is 10-1 and fighting for a potential playoff spot. However, the Cougars played very well in that game and led JMU 20-17 midway through the 4th quarter before falling 24-20 as a 14.5 point dog (JMU had a pick 6 so only 17 points scored offensively). With that loss, this game becomes ultra important as a win gets them to bowl eligible. This team is better than their record. They’ve played a tough schedule traveling to Ole Miss, Virginia, and James Madison and losing those games by a combined 9 points! Those teams currently have a combined record of 29-4 and Wazzu gave them all a run for their money and on the road none the less. At home the Cougs are 4-1 with their only loss coming vs Washington. They’ve beaten the top team in the MAC here handily (beat Toledo 28-7) and creamed the best team the Mountain West at home (beat San Diego State 36-13). While Washington State is fighting for a bowl game, the Beavers are just 1-9 vs FBS teams this year with their win coming vs Wazzu. They are also in the process of searching for a new coach (just named an Alabama assistant as their new head coach – this has been a distraction for both players and coaches). The Beavs are 0-4 on the road and their average score away from home is 36-14 while getting outgained 496 to 300 YPG. They’ll struggle here offensively vs a Washington State D that held them to 184 total yards a few weeks ago and OSU punted on 10 of their 12 possessions. The Cougs have held 6 of their 11 opponents to 13 points or less. WSU has been outstanding on defense holding James Madison to 24 points last week (they average 40 PPG), Toledo to 7 points (they average 32), Ole Miss to 24 points (they average 37) and UVA to 22 points (they average 34). The Cougars have been waiting for this rematch for a few weeks and they shouldn’t have to go crazy on offense to cover this game as we expect OSU to do next to nothing. We like Washington State to win this one easily.