ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks are going to win this series and advance, but the Cavs won’t go quietly and will win this home game tonight. Cleveland has been great at home in the playoffs, going 6-1 SU with an average scoring differential of +5.0 and the 2nd best home court eFG% at 58%. New York has just 1 road loss in these playoffs, but they also faced a lower tier Atlanta team and swept a beat up 76ers team. Cleveland has looked much better against the Knicks than we anticipated, and home court has absolutely meant something when these two teams have squared off with a 5-0 SU record this season. The Cavs also fall into a solid 61% playoff system that supports teams down 0-2 in the series. Home favorites that are down 0-2 SU in the conference Finals have covered 9 of the last 13 in that situation. The Cavs have also bounce back well when coming off a loss with a 40-18 SU record the past two seasons and an average scoring differential of +6.3PPG in that scenario. Going into this series, the Knicks offensive ratings were off the charts and the Cavs defense has played well holding them to a Net rating of 113 which is well below their ONR heading into this series. The Knicks defense has played well but the Cavs (eFG% vs. Knicks 46.1%) should shoot better in their own building where they had the 7th best eFG% during the regular season at 56%. Our math model projects the Cavs to win this game by margin and we concur.

#928 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+120) over Cleveland Guardians, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Phillies are off a 1-0 loss yesterday.  They are 3-0 the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of 2 or less runs.  Also, Philadelphia is a perfect 5-0 this season in Zack Wheeler's starts.  Wheeler got a late start to this season but he has been fantastic and is already 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his 5 starts this season.  The Guardians Slade Cecconi, on the other hand, is 12-19 with a 5.09 ERA in his career and he has been struggling this season and, in particular, on the road.  In Cecconi's 7 road starts this season he has a 5.79 ERA and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him.  He is coming off a good start but this was after he allowed 37 hits in 25 innings spanning his 5 prior starts.  The Guardians have been hot and are on a winning streak but they have not been hitting all that well of late.  Couple that with the fact they now face a tough Phillies pitcher while their own starter today is very likely to get roughed up, and you can see why this is a mismatch.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the Phillies run line in this one and note that the Guardians last 6 road losses have all been by a margin of at least 2 runs. This one will make it 7 in a row! 

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - This bet is largely predicated on DeAaron Fox being able to play tonight. He warmed up prior to the last game but was then a late scratch before tipoff. From everything we’ve seen Dylan Harper Jr is much less likely to play. With Fox on the court we are very comfortable backing the Spurs at home in Game 3. This is a match up advantage for the Spurs who are 5-2 SU against the Thunder this season. In Game 1 this young Spurs team stayed poised and won a double OT game in OKC – one of the toughest places to play in the NBA. Even in Game 2 when Harper was injured after 25 minutes, the Spurs still played extremely well with the game essentially getting decided in the 4th quarter. In G2 the Thunder were +7 on free throw makes and won the turnover battle 9 to 21 which was the difference. Now back at home we like the Spurs to take care of the basketball and win the rebound battle (+21 in the first game, +4 in G1). Both teams have fantastic home/road records with the Thunder 34-10 SU away, San Antonio is 36-10 SU in their own building. Two factors are suggesting Fox will be in the lineup tonight – one the line has ticked up from -1.5 to -2 suggesting he’s available. Secondly, we are seeing his player prop lines in the market which also signal his return. Even if he’s not 100% he can run the offense and cut down on Castles turnovers which would have a huge impact on this outcome. At this point in time, we feel the Spurs are the better team – and if healthy will come out of the Western Conference. Lay it with the home team who are 19-5 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +11.1PPG.

#56 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5 goals (+135) over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 8 PM ET - Vegas is a fantastic hockey club that has responded well to the very late season coaching change to John Tortorella.  Give the Golden Knights credit too for coming up big with the Game 1 upset to start this series on Wednesday.  However, the puck certainly bounced the way of Vegas in that one and we are expecting a huge response here from the best team in the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche.  No team had a better regular season (121 points) than the Avalanche and the Avs were also 8-1 in this post-season prior to that Game 1 loss to the Knights.  Colorado outshot Vegas 38 to 28 in the Game 1 loss and the couple of 3rd period goals that the Avalanche got after being down 3-0 certainly is going to be on the mind of Vegas goalie Carter Hart entering this one.  The Avs nearly completed the comeback.  Hart has been fantastic in goal overall but let's not forget he had allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 6 road playoff games prior to that 4-2 win Wednesday.  Also, note that the Avalanche had scored at least 4 goals in 6 of their last 7 games prior to the 4-2 loss in Game 1  Certainly rust was a bit of a factor as the Avs had a week off since topping the Wild in 5 games in the 2nd round.  That rust is gone now for Game 2 and the Avs have some momentum on their side too after the last two non-empty net goals that were scored Wednesday both belonged to the Avalanche.  Look for them to absolutely blitz Vegas from the drop of the puck here in Game 2 as let's not forget that the Avs entered this series 31-9-6 in home games this season.  The most recent Avalanche win was in OT but this followed 5 straight playoff wins by a multi-goal margin and their average margin of victory in those was 3 goals.  Another big margin win is lined up here for the angry Avs in Game 2 Friday night!  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the high value play here.  

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -5.5 vs. Dallas Wings, 7:30pm ET - The value in the number is the main reason for this wager as this line is light by a few points in the Dreams favor. Atlanta played in Dallas earlier this season and was favored by -1.5 on the road. The Dream won that game 77-72 despite a poor shooting night. Atlanta is the 2nd best defensive team in the W with a Net rating of 99.2. They held the Wings to 15% 3PT shooting in the first meeting. In comparison the Wings are 11th in defensive Net rating. Granted, Dallas has an advantage offensively, but as they say, defense wins Championships. Atlanta should rebound here after a disappointing home loss to the Aces on May 17th 84-85. The Dream were down big in that game before rallying to make it close late. Atlanta should have Rhyne Howard back in the lineup for this game as she did practice on Thursday. Dallas is coming off a win in Chicago on Wednesday with Jessica Shepard leading the way with a triple-double. Atlanta’s two biggest advantages here are rebounding and 3PT% defense. The Dream are the best rebounding team and 1st in 3PT% - the Wings rely heavily on their 3PT shooting and don’t rebound well or score many 2nd chance points. Dallas is 5-20 SU their last 25 road games. Lay it here with Atlanta.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - Rest = rust! Saying the Knicks started slow in Game 1 would be the understatement of all time. It took New York 3.5 quarters to get going and pull a miraculous come from behind win in OT over the Cavs and we feel the lingering emotional effects for Cleveland will impact tonight’s game. New York exploited James Harden defensively late in that game with Jalen Brunson taking over in the 4th quarter. The Knicks got off to an unexpected slow starting in G1 and looked tentative offensively. By the end of the game the Knicks had 60 points in the paint compared to the Cavs 38 and had a +9-rebounding advantage. Four of the five Cavaliers starters were minus in +/- for the game. New York has won 8 straight games and covered the spread in 7 of eight. At home they’ve been nearly unbeatable with 4 straight wins and two of those came by 29 and 39-points. New York was one of the best teams in the NBA at home this season overall at 35-11 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.3PPG. So far in these playoffs they have the best overall Net rating of +18.9 as they are getting it done on both ends of the court. Cleveland comes into this game with an overall Net rating in the playoffs of +0.2 Cleveland is 2-6 SU on the road in this postseason and 5 of those six losses came by double-digits. The Cavs were 27-22 SU on the road this season overall with an average plus/minus of +2.3PPG. The home team won all 4 meetings between these two teams this season and the Knicks get it done by double-digits in Game 2.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:36pm ET - I was very afraid of Game 1 in this series as the one lingering outlier that favored the Spurs in that opener was simply match ups. Sometimes whether it be football, basketball, baseball or whatever, one team has an advantage over the other because the team has been constructed specifically to beat the other team. That’s what we’re seeing with this young Spurs team against OKC who they’ve now beaten 5 of six times this season. OKC relies on drives to the basket (#1 in the NBA) along with turnovers and transition efficiency. The problem is this: Wemby is on the back line of the defense and owns the paint. Secondly, the Spurs don’t turn the ball over and don’t allow fast break points (rank top 5 in all of those defensive categories). With all that said we have to make a small wager on the Thunder to bounce back here off that loss and get a home win to even this series. The Thunder are 33-7 SU their last 40 games when coming off a loss (dating back to last season) with an average margin of victory of +11.1PPG. I do believe the Spurs will win this series now but this is the one game I like OKC to get a big win after the Spurs starters saw extended minutes in Game 1 and may punt this game late if it gets out of hand.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -7 vs. Toronto Tempo, 10 pm ET - This looks like a big number to cover, but in reality it’s not when you do an early season line comparison for each teams games played to date. Case in point, the expansion Tempo were just +7.5 points in two games against the LA Sparks. LA isn’t nearly as good as this Mercury team in our power rankings. L.A. has a Net rating of -13.6 on the season and the worst defense in the league. Phoenix has a Net rating of +7.5 and is top 5 in both offensive and defensive ratings. The Tempo also have very misleading offensive numbers as they’ve faced some of the leagues worst defenses. Phoenix was also just favored by slightly lower numbers at home against the Lynx and Sky who are both significantly better than this Toronto team. We will lay the points in this game and predict a Mercury win by 15 points.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -6.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 Pm ET - Don’t relate last night’s home loss by the Thunder to this game tonight as the Knicks are the play in this game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Adam Silver and the NBA want nothing more than the big market Knicks to come out of the East this year and we feel they win this series in 5 games. New York had a couple rough outings early in the Atlanta series but have been cruising ever since. They have won 7 straight games and covered the spread in 6 of seven. At home they’ve been nearly unbeatable with 3 straight wins and two of those came by 29 and 39-points. New York was one of the best teams in the NBA at home this season overall at 34-11 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.3PPG. So far in these playoffs they have the best overall Net rating of +20 as they are getting it done on both ends of the court. Cleveland barely escaped the 2nd round with a Game 7 win over the Pistons. They come into this game with limited rest and an overall Net rating in the playoffs of +1.0. Cleveland is 2-5 SU on the road in this postseason and 4 of those five losses came by double-digits. The Cavs were 27-21 SU on the road this season overall with an average plus/minus of +2.3PPG. The home team won all 3 meetings between these two teams this season and the Knicks get it done here by 12+ points.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -6.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:30pm ET - This is going to be a fun series and I’m betting will be much better than the actual Finals. This is a new budding rivalry as the Spurs are legitimately the only team in the league that can beat the Thunder in our opinion. Much of that is due to matchups as Wemby can nullify Holmgren on the defensive end and also exploits him on the offensive end of the court. The Spurs also have great defensive guards on the perimeter to contain SGA and company. With that said, in Game 1 we like the Thunder by double-digits. OKC fans are some of the best in the biz and will be rabid tonight in this home game against a Spurs team that has beaten their beloved Thunder 4 of five times this season. OKC was double-digit favorites in every playoff game but one and every home win came by an average of 21PPG. The Thunder are 84-15 SU the last two seasons at home with an average margin of victory of +14PPG. OKC will get Williams back for this game and his added scoring and this team will certainly not overlook the Spurs after losing to them in 4/5 this season. The betting markets are supporting our theory on this Game 1 with a heavier volume of money/tickets coming in on the public Spurs, yet the line ticked up a point from -5.5 to -6.5 here. We will fade the public and take OKC in G1.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings -3.5 vs. Washington Mystics, 8pm ET - We will go back to the well with the Wings at home minus the points against the Mystics tonight. Dallas has been over-valued to start the season but this line is actually light based on our math model’s projections. Dallas is 1-2 ATS this season and was just favored by -3.5 points at home against a much better Lynx team and are now laying just -4.5 against this young Mystics team. Washington has a roster made up of first and second year players and this will be a tough spot for them to play at a peak level giving the circumstances. Washington is coming off two straight OT games including a win in Indiana over the Fever a few nights ago in a high energy arena and now face a Wings team that has been at home and are off two straight losses. Dallas wasn’t great at home last season but the Mystics were bad on the road with a 6-16 SU record and an average loss margin of -6.6PPG. That was with a few vets on the team, not rookies and first year players. Given the circumstances we like Dallas to get a much needed home win before a tough 3-game road trip.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -3.5 vs. Chicago Sky, 10 pm ET - We made a mistake and bet the Mercury in their last game against the Lynx but that result has impacted today’s number and value clearly lies with Phoenix here. Chicago is projected to be one of the lower teams in the WNBA this season yet they are catching essentially the same number here from the Mercury, that Phoenix was just favored by against a contender in Minnesota. Chicago is 2-0 but both wins have come against the expansion Portland Fire and last years expansion team the Golden State Valkyries. Phoenix opened the season with an impressive road win in Vegas but has since lost two straight which should have them motivated here. Phoenix has the better roster at this point with Alyssa Thomas – another potential MVP candidate along with Copper and Bonner. Phoenix was 18-10 SU at home a year ago with an average +/- of plus 5.4PPG. As a home favorite they were 9-10 ATS but had an average margin of victory in those games of +6.2PPG. Chicago didn’t travel well a year ago with a 4-18 SU on the road a year ago with an average loss margin of -10.4PPG. The situation favors the Mercury minus the points.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:40 pm ET - There are plenty of trends out there that support the Wolves at home that rely on Game 6 home dog situations, but it’s become obvious the Spurs are just that much better. In fact, the betting markets are supporting that train of thought with the Sharps pounding San Antonio tonight. We could visually see the Wolves were struggling and barely managed to beat the Spurs without Wemby in Game 4 at home. Then is Game 5 we accurately predicted a Spurs win and tonight they end the series in Minnesota with a double-digit win. The T’Wolves offense in the last two games has struggled with a Net rating of 104.5 and an eFG% of 47.2% - both substantially lower than their season long averages of 115.6 and 55.9%. Obviously, that has a lot to do with the Spurs defense that was one of the best all season long with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.114-points per possession allowed during the regular season. In the post season the Spurs have been the best defense of the playoffs allowing 1.034PPP. It’s not just defense that the Spurs have the clear advantage over the Wolves. San Antonio has an OEFF of 1.165-points per possession in the playoffs, the Wolves OEFF is 1.087PPP – and that’s after facing a bad Denver defense in the first round. The Spurs are moving on to face the Thunder in the WC Finals.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -3.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - The home teams is clearly the play in this series with the host now 4-0 SU and ATS. The Pistons won the first two games at home by 10-points each, then the Cavs won in Cleveland by 7 and 9-points respectively. Dating back to the regular season that makes it 6 in a row for the home team. Cleveland was solid but not great on the road this season at 25-21 SU, but had the 2nd worst spread record away from home at 17-29 ATS. The Pistons are 36-10 SU at home this season, 25-21 ATS but have a +10.2PPG average scoring differential which was 3rd best in the NBA this season. Detroit has better overall numbers with a Net rating of +4.2 In the postseason, compared to the Cavs at +0.1. With this low of a number we will back the Pistons at home off back to back losses.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -3.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 10 pm ET - This is a very favorable line for the Mercury who should win this game by double digits against the Lynx without Napheesa Collier, one of the 2 best players in the league. Phoenix opened the season with a big upset win over the Aces – who had beaten them in the playoffs a year ago – then lost their next game in Golden State. Minnesota is coming off a 1-point loss at home to Atlanta – who we feel is vastly overrated. Phoenix has the better roster at this point with Alyssa Thomas – another potential MVP candidate along with Copper and Bonner. They also have promising rooked Olivia Miles who scored 21-points in her WNBA debut. Phoenix was 18-10 SU at home a year ago with an average +/- of plus 5.4PPG. As a home favorite they were 9-10 ATS but had an average margin of victory in those games of +6.2PPG. This Minnesota team is not the same without Collier and they’ll have a tough time scoring in this one against a Mercury team that was 5th in defensive Net rating a year ago. Lay it with Phoenix.

#905 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-100) over Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are likely starting Brandon Young and he is expected to be facing southpaw Ryan Weathers of the Yankees.  There are a ton of edges for New York in this one including the fact that Baltimore is 0-9 this season against left-handed starters.  Also, the Orioles faced the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this month and lost all 4 games in true blowout fashion.  In fact the aggregate score of the 4 games was a whopping 39 to 10.  This shapes up to be another blowout.  The Orioles Young went 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA in his 7 home starts last year in his rookie season.  This year Young has again struggled and his two home starts have seen him compile a 6.52 ERA and he allowed 16 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings in those two starts.  This was after allowing 47 hits in 32 innings at home last season!  Young should get pummeled again here while the Yankees Weathers now has a 3.57 ERA in 31 starts the last 3 seasons combined.  This includes a solid 5-inning win versus the Orioles in that 4-game Yankees sweep earlier this month.  The Yankees will be in bounce back mode here after a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers in Milwaukee this past weekend.  Keep in mind the Yankees entered that series on a 16-3 run!  Here they will take advantage of facing an Orioles side that is off a 2-1 win yesterday but that had lost 8 of 10 games prior to that victory.  We look for the Orioles to drop to 0-10 on the season when facing a left-handed starter.  As for having confidence to invest in the run line here, note that 23 of 26 Yankees wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Also, 17 of the Orioles 23 losses this season have been defeats by a margin of 2+ runs.  This game has the right ingredients to be a road rout and this is a great spot Monday.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line for a top game in this one!

Liga Portugal (Primeria Liga): #206610 ASA PLAY ON Benfica Goal Line -1.25 (-107) over Braga, Monday at 3:15 ET - Great spot for a home blowout.  Braga is off a disappointing 3-1 loss in mid-week action in Germany as they were battling in Europa League action.  Benfica has a significant rest edge here as a result.  Also, Benfica is going for the #2 spot in the table for the season and, though Braga is also a solid club the visitors have been quite inconsistent in recent weeks.  Benfica, on the other hand, has revenge from a 3-1 loss to Braga in League Cup action in January.  Being at home for this rematch is a big boost for Benfica as they have won 3 straight on their home pitch and the 3 victories came by an aggregate score of 9 to 1.  That is domination and we expect more of the same here as Benfica gets some revenge and they take advantage of a worn-out Braga side that is playing for the 4th time in 12 days while this will be just the 2nd game for Benfica from April 26th until today, May 11th.  Huge situational edge and the fact the goal line is at -1.25 means that if Benfica wins this match by only 1 goal it would only be a half-loss at the books.  However, we certainly are not expecting only a 1-goal win, we are confident in yet another home win by a multi-goal margin for the hosts in this one.  We will take Benfica on the goal line at -1.25 goals here in Benfica Monday.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7:40 pm ET - The Wolves shocked the Spurs in Game 1, then got pummeled in Game 2 by San Antonio then lost Game 3 at home. Now we expect Minnesota to play like they did in Game 1 in what should be a very competitive game down to the wire. The Wolves went 3-0 at home against the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs with all three wins coming by double-digits. In fact, the Wolves have the 3rd best Net rating at home in the post season at +16.0. Granted, the Spurs are 3-0 away from home with a +18.4 Net rating on the road in the playoffs but two of those wins also came against the 7 seed Blazers. The home team has won 4 of the six meetings this season and the Wolves bounced back well after a loss this season with a 22-14 SU record and an average +/- of +3.9PPG. We expect a regression in the Spurs shooting after a 46% overall night and 36% from beyond the arc in Game 3. We love Wemby who looks like a generational talent, but we also don’t see him putting together another 13/18 shooting night for 39-points. Minnesota may not win this game outright but are numbers suggest a 1-score game either way.

#200010 ASA PLAY ON Brighton & Hove Goal Line -1.5 (-135) over Wolverhampton, Saturday at 10 AM ET - Great spot for a home blowout.  Brighton still has sights set on earning a European position in the EPL table.  As for Wolverhampton, they know they are being relegated.  They only managed a 1-1 draw with Sunderland last week.  Brighton is actually off a loss last week which is what strengthens this play further.  There will be no holding back for Brighton here as they also seek revenge for a disappointing 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture this season.  The Wolves have not scored a single goal in 3 of their last 4 road matches.  The Albion, on the other hand, had scored 9 goals in their last 4 matches prior to being held in check a bit in a 3-1 loss at Newcastle United.  Now that they are back home Brighton & Hove respond big here and take advantage of facing a foe that is sluggishly heading to the finish line of a very disappointing season.  We are confident in a blowout win for the home side in this one and will take Brighton & Hove on the goal line at -1.5 goals in this one. 

#952 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+110) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - 17 of the last 20 Rockies losses have been by a margin of at least 2 runs and that includes a current run of 8 in a row! Of course the Phillies are a big money line favorite at home on Friday but we get value on the run line and we fully expect the Rockies stretch of multi-run margin losses to continue here. We love the Phillies in this bounce back spot as they are off a 12-1 loss to the Athletics yesterday while the Rockies are off a win. Colorado had lost 6 in a row (by an average margin of 4 runs per defeat) prior to their win yesterday over the Mets. Philadelphia, prior to yesterday's ugly loss, was on an 8-1 run as they have responded well to the managerial change from Thomson to Mattingly. In terms of the starting pitching today, Jesus Luzardo has unimpressive numbers on the season but he started slow and has turned the corner. In his last 3 starts he has allowed only 3 earned runs in 18 innings of work. Last season he went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA for the Phillies and he appears to be back on track once again. As for the Rockies Chase Dollander, he had been pitching better than expected early this season but the wheels came off in his last start. Let's not forget that Dollander went 2-12 with a 6.52 ERA last season. We expect last week's start to be a sign of things to come as his struggles resume. We are laying 1.5 runs with the Phillies run line in this one and note that the Rockies last 8 losses have all been by a margin of at least 2 runs. This one will make it 9 in a row!

#971 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-130) over Houston Astros, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - The Dodgers let us down yesterday as Ohtani pitched well but LA surprisingly got shut down at the plate. We will get some back here today after that top game loss Tuesday. Los Angeles had a rare 4-game losing streak last week but then responded with B2B wins prior to yesterday's loss. Also, before the Dodgers 4-game losing streak they had gone 7-2 this season when entering a game off a loss. We like backing strong teams off a loss and LA fits that category today plus they have a huge pitching edge. Not only do the Astros have a league-worst bullpen ERA this season, the Houston starter today is Lance McCullers and he has a 6.32 ERA this season and had a 6.51 ERA last season. The Dodgers will counter with Tyler Glasnow on the mound here and he is 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his 6 starts this season and he has held opponents to a .146 batting average this season! Last season he held hitters to a .177 average and this followed his first season with LA in which he held opponents to a .190 batting average! Look for Glasnow to frustrate the Astros hitters here while LA bounces back at the plate against McCullers and an overall weak Astros bullpen. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one and note that the Dodgers 10 road wins this season have all been by a margin of at least 2 runs!

#927 ASA TOP PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-130) over Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Dodgers won yesterday's game 8-3 and this should be another road rout.  We will get involved today utilizing the run line as LA is a massive (-230) favorite on the money line here.  No hesitation for us in laying the 1.5 runs (-130 price) on the run line as all 10 of the Dodgers road wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  The Astros bullpen has a 6.22 ERA and a 4-11 record and that lofty ERA ranks Houston dead last in the majors.  The Dodgers rank 11th in the majors with a much more respectable 3.72 ERA for their bullpen this season.  In terms of starting pitching Tuesday, LA rates a huge edge with Ohtani over Lambert.  The Dodgers Ohtani has a 0.60 ERA in his 5 starts this season as he has been fantastic again this year and gone 6 innings in all 5 starts.  The Astros Lambert, on the other hand, is 9-21 with a 6.12 ERA in his career.  He has decent numbers overall in limited action (3 starts) this season but he is off an outing in which he could not make it out of the 5th inning and had as many walks as strikeouts.  Also, Lambert got hit hard in his lone home start this season.  Couple that with a weak Astros bullpen behind him and this one should get ugly.  Houston is on a long-term 8-19 run and the Dodgers are now off B2B wins and have one of the best records in the majors this season.  The Astros are a solid hitting team but LA is an even better hitting team on the season and when you couple that with the large pitching edges here, including the bullpen, there are key factors here in favor of the Dodgers.  We are going with the run line option here as we can get involved for a moderate, yet very fair, price if we lay the 1.5 runs with the Dodgers in this one. 17 of the 22 Los Angeles wins this season have been by 2+ runs.  Also, 20 of the Astros 22 losses this season have been by 2+ runs. Another blowout on the road, similar to yesterday's 8-3 thrashing, is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -7 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers are in a brutally tough scheduling situation here with just 1 day rest after coming off that emotional draining series upset of the Celtics in 7-games. New York on the other hand has been off since Thursday after eliminating the Hawks in Atlanta. There were some concerns with the Knicks in that series but they seem to have things figured out with three straight wins by 16, 29 and 51-points. You could argue the Knicks are playing better than anyone in the playoffs as they currently have the best Net rating at +18.1 (Thunder next at +17.8). Philadelphia deserves credit for their first round upset but let’s face it, they caught a MASSIVE break in Game 7 when Tatum and Vucevic didn’t play (unknown to everyone including us) and shot horrible with Brown, White and Pritchard combining for 26/66 shooting overall and 10/32 from beyond the arc. Philly ranks 11th out of sixteen playoff teams in Net rating, behind the Rockets (10th) who looked terrible in their series with the Lakers. New York was favored over the 76ers in all four games this season including being favored by -2.5-points most recently on Feb 11th in Philadelphia. New York had one of the best home court records at home this season of 32-11 SU with the second best average scoring differential of +10.2ppg. NY was 13-4 ATS against the rest of the division this season with an average +/- of +15.6ppg. Given the rest advantage we feel this game is going to be a blowout. Lay it with New York.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 7:30pm ET - The home team has won all 6 games in this series and we expect Cleveland to advance today. In the process they’ll cover this moderate spread. Historically home teams in Game 7’s tend to win big (someone forgot to tell Boston) and today we get a favorable number with the Cavs who were favored by more than this in the 3 previous home games in this series. In Games 1& 2 the Cavs won by 13 and 10 points respectively. In Game 5 at home the Cavs won by 5 points and failed to cover. Toronto has a deafening home court advantage when the fans are engaged and last game which certainly helped the younger players in the big moment. Now it will be the vets turn to take over in Cleveland where Mitchell, Harden and Mobley have all been in the spotlight of big games before. The Raptors leading scorer Brandon Ingram is a game time decision with a heel injury and even if he does play he won’t be 100%. Cleveland has one of the best home court records in the NBA at 3-=14 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9ppg. The Raptors have been an average road team at 22-22 SU with a plus 0.5ppg differential. The NBA playoff zig-zag theory will apply to this game with the Cavs notching a double-digit win.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35pm ET - The Celtics have now lost two straight games to the 76ers and Philly was clearly the better team in both. Maxey has been the best player on the court, Paul George turned back the clock last game and Embiid actually played hard. Boston had issues with Tatum and Brown taking turns playing iso-ball and forgot what helped them win 56 games during the regular season – ball movement. In my opinion, Joe Mazzulla is the best coach in the NBA and he’ll make adjustments for this elimination game. There aren’t many teams better than the Celtics when coming off a loss as they went 21-7 SU, 15-8 ATS with an average margin of victory of +9.1PPG this season. If we go back to last season, we see the C’s were 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +18.6PPG. Boston is 31-13 SU at home this season and their average scoring differential in road games is +7.3ppg. Philly shot well in the last two games to extend this series but we expect a regression here. The 76ers were a below average shooting team on the season at 46.1% (23rd) and hit just 34.9% from deep – also 23rd in the league. Boston had two straight unusually poor shooting nights at 28% and 29% from beyond the arc but will find their rhythm at home. The line value is telling in this game as the Celtics were just favored by -6.5-points on the road and were -13.5 in the first game of this series, -8.5 in G2 and -10.5 in Game 5. We will trust the season long statistics, not the last two games and back the C’s here.

#909 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Friday at 8:15 PM ET - Los Angeles is a pricey favorite on the money line here but where we get the line value is on the run line in this one. The Cardinals have had 85% of their losses (11 of 13) come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Dodgers have had 15 of their 20 wins (75%) this season come by a margin of 2 or more runs and that includes 6 of last 7 wins (86%) by a multi-run margin. The 6 wins in that run have been by an average score of 8.0 to 1.7 and we expect another blowout here. The pitching match-up here features two starters with nearly identical ERA's but the way they are entering this match-up is another key to the value. The Cardinals Matthew Liberatore is trending the wrong direction as he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts and he is off another rough outing. The Dodgers Emmet Sheehan has been charged with a total of only 6 earned runs on just 12 hits while striking out 20 in 17 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts! We also like backing strong teams off B2B losses. LA has lost B2B games by a single run each and then was off yesterday. They have yet to lose 3 games in a row this season and we don't see that changing here. The Cardinals are off a divisional sweep on the road but have lost 6 of their last 8 home games including 3 in a row. Liberatore has been getting hit at a .304 clip at home this season. The southpaw will be facing a Dodgers team that is 5-1 against left-handed starters this season! Also, the St Louis bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the National League! Excellent value with the Dodgers on the run line here. 6 of last 7 LA wins by 2+ and 11 of 13 STL losses by 2+ and, per the above as well, this most likely will be a road rout and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - The Celtics got caught playing with their food in the last game and lost at home to the Sixers. There aren’t many teams better than the Celtics when coming off a loss as they went 21-6 SU, 15-7 ATS with an average margin of victory of +9.1PPG. If we go back to last season we see the C’s were 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +18.6PPG. Boston is 27-16 ATS away from home this season and their average scoring differential in road games is +8.1ppg. Not to mention, they already have two wins on this court already in this series by 8 and 32-points. Philly shot well in the last game to extend this series by hitting 50% overall and 36% from deep. Boston had an unusually poor shooting night at 40% and 28%. Boston has been one of the three best teams in the NBA all season long and they’ll flex tonight in Philadelphia with a double digit road win.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers -4 vs. Houston Rockets, 10pm ET - This series has been shocking to say the least and now we have the Lakers favored at home by as many points as they were getting in Game 1. That’s a massive adjustment in the number but we don’t feel it’s enough. The Rockets offense has looked atrocious in 3 of the four games and is currently 15th in offensive Net rating out of the sixteen teams. Only Phoenix has been worse offensively than Houston. The Lakers were a bottom tier defensive team all season long and are playing hard on that end of the court allowing 1.097 points per possession, significantly lower than the 1.169PPP they gave up in the regular season. The Lakers had 3 great shooting games in 1, 2 and 3 of 41% or better from beyond the arc, then hit just 5/22 3-pointers in their game 4 loss. No Kevin Durant again tonight for Houston so it’s not like they’re going to pick up another scoring option to help their flailing offense. The Lakers though could get a boost with the return of Austin Reaves which would give them another perimeter scorer. With the Lakers returning home they should find their stroke from deep again which leads to a 6-or more point win and end to the series.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -10.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:30pm ET - The Wolves lost two big pieces to their offense with Edwards and DiVincenzo (combined averaged 40ppg) out for this game and moving forward. As we’ve seen many times in the past, when key players get injured in a game, a role player will step up as the Wolves Dosunmu did in Game 4 with 43-points. We are betting he can’t do that again, nor will the other Wolves pick up the scoring slack with two starters out. Denver is obviously backed into a corner and facing elimination – but at home – and off a loss. The Nuggets were 21-9 SU, 17-13 ATS off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +6.5ppg. Historically the Nuggets have been very good at home overall and this season they have a 29-14 record and a +5.5ppg average scoring differential. This series got chippy at the end of the last game when the Wolves scored a meaningless layup when the Nuggets had surrendered. That will add fuel to the fire for Denver at home who won’t mind running it up if they build a lead which helps when laying double-digits. Lay it with Denver.

#906 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - Tough spot for Miami as they remain on the road after last night's loss in San Francisco in which the Marlins managed just 2 hits. The Dodgers are happy to remain at home after a dominating 6-0 win yesterday. Los Angeles is a massive -300 favorite on the money line here but where we get the line value is on the run line in this one. The Marlins have had 93% of their losses (14 of 15) come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  The Dodgers have had 15 of their 19 wins this season come by a margin of 2 or more runs and that includes 6 straight wins by a multi-run margin. Those 6 wins have been by an average score of 8.0 to 1.7 and we expect another blowout here.  The Marlins Chris Paddack went 5-12 with a 5.35 ERA last season and he is 0-4 with a 6.38 ERA this season!  The Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 21-12 with a 2.64 ERA in his career and that includes a 2.48 ERA in the current season thus far.  The Marlins are 3-9 on the road this season and the Dodgers are already a perfect 6-0 this season against teams from the NL East division.  The Dodgers have won each of their last 3 home series and have gone 7-2 in those series.  After yesterday's loss to the Giants, the Marlins have now lost all 4 of their road series this season!  Excellent value with the Dodgers on the run line here.  6 straight LA wins by 2+ and 6 straight MIA losses by 2+ and, per the above as well, this is another blowout at home most likely and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 at Toronto Raptors, 1pm ET - The Cavs jumped out to a 2-0 lead before losing game 3 in Toronto. We expect them to get back on track and take a 3-1 lead after Sunday’s day game. The Cavs are one of the best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss this season with a 23-7 SU record and an average margin of victory in those games of +7.2ppg. Cleveland had the 7th best efficiency differential on the road this season at +3.7 with an average point differential of +3.7ppg. Toronto had a positive eDIFF and points per game differential of +4.5 at home. The Raptors had a ridiculously great shooting night in Game 3 when they hit 57% overall and 61% from deep, both well above season averages. Those numbers aren’t sustainable, especially against a Cavs defense that was 8th best in opponents FG% allowed. Toronto isn’t a great 3-point shooting team to befin with so we don’t see them duplicating that performance from G3. The vets on the Cavs roster bounce back here and take a 3-1 lead in the series.

#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+110) over Houston Astros, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Yankees have won 7 straight games after yesterday's 12-4 blowout win over the Astros here in Houston.  While New York has the best record in the American League, the Astros are 10-17 and in last place in the AL West.  The alarming thing about this for the Astros is that only 7 of their 27 games this season have been against teams that currently have a winning record on the year.  Houston also has one of the worst bullpens in baseball thus far as they are 3-9 with a 5.94 ERA.  Both the Yankees and Astros are solid hitting teams but the bullpen edge and starting pitching edge as well as overall level of play this season all go to the Yankees. New York also has been the hotter team at the plate this season.  This starting pitching match-up features Ryan Weathers for the Yankees and Mike Burrows for the Astros.  Weathers is coming off a fantastic start versus the Royals plus he has been piling up strikeouts.  He had one bad start where he allowed 4 homers (and 5 earned runs) but has not allowed a homer in any of his other 4 starts and has a 1.89 ERA in those 4 starts.  The Astros Burrows, on the other hand, has struggled badly in 4 of his 5 starts and he has yet to produce a single quality start (6 or more innings, 3 or less earned runs) this season.  He has a 6.43 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .307 against him.  We are going with the run line option here as we do not have to lay any juice if we lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees and 15 of their 17 wins this season have been by 2+ runs.  Also, 15 of the Astros 17 losses this season have been by 2+ runs. Another blowout on the road is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -2.5 at Orlando Magic, 1pm ET - The Pistons were upset in Game 1 of this series and lost to the Magic. In Game 2 they bounced back with a 15-point win 98-83. It was the Pistons defense that was the difference in G2 as they held the Magic to 32.5% shooting overall and 25% from beyond the arc. We are backing the Pistons again in this game and with the low number, essentially just asking them to win outright. The Pistons were 28-13 SU on the road this season with the 4th highest average margin of victory at +5.8ppg. The Magic did have a winning record at home this season of 26-15 SU but only Philadelphia had a worst average scoring differential at home than the Magic of all the playoff teams. Orlando had an average +/- at home of just 1.6ppg which ranked 18th in the league in the regular season. A great indicator of the disparity between these two teams is their season-long efficiency differentials as the Pistons ranked 3rd at +8.1 compared to the Magic at +0.7 (17th). Detroit played with a much greater sense of urgency in Game 2 and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - We like the Celtics to bounce back after a horrible showing in Game 2, a home loss to the Sixers. Boston had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night and only managed 97 points in defeat. The C’s hit 39% from the field and 26% from beyond the arc. Those numbers were significantly lower than their season averages of 46.7% and 36.5% and it’s not like Philly was great defensively as they’ve been average all season long. Philly allowed 1.156 points per possession this season, 17th most in the NBA. Boston defensively was 4th in dEFF allowing 1.127ppp. The season long offensive numbers clearly favor the Celtics too as they were 2nd in oEFF at 1.208ppp while the Sixers were 17th at 1.154ppp. Boston off a loss has been really good this season at 20-6 SU, 18-8 ATS with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.6ppg. We don’t see the rookie Edgecombe putting up a game like in did in G2 and surely don’t see another bad shooting night for the C’s. We’ll lay it with the visitor.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -2 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30pm ET - The Nuggets won Game 1 of this series then lost home court advantage and Game 2. We expect them to bounce back off that loss and get a road win in Minnesota. The Wolves played above expectations in G2 with 48% shooting from the field overall and hit 14/34 3’s for 41%. They also outrebounded the Nuggets and held Denver to 44% shooting and 37% from beyond the arc. Denver is the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA at 49.5% overall and the best 3PT shooting team at 39.4%. The Wolves are 9th in FG% and 6th in 3PT%. Anthony Edwards is not shooting well at 38.3% overall and 27.3% from Deep in this series and we doubt the role players can continue to make shots at a high rate. Minnesota was 26-15 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +3.7ppg but Denver had the same SU record of 26-15 on the road this season with a better average point differential of +4.7ppg. The Nuggets also bounced back after a loss this season with a 21-7 SU record with an average plus +8.2ppg plus/minus. Surprisingly, the road team has won 6 of the last eight meetings so it shouldn’t be a surprise if Denver wins this road contest. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -8.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 6:30 pm ET - Every home team came through on Saturday & Sunday in the first set of playoff games – but one – the Pistons – and we are all over this strong situational spot with Detroit at home. Big favorites historically do extremely well in the 1st round of the playoffs with a 101-18 SU, 70-49 ATS record dating back 12 years. The Pistons were 13-9 ATS this season when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +10.4 ppg. After an EMBARRASSING Game 1 home loss we expect the Pistons to bounce back here because if they don’t, the series is essentially over. Detroit won 60 games this season – most in the East and had an average scoring differential of +8.2ppg. They were 31-9 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +10.5ppg. Detroit is one of a handful of teams in the playoffs that were in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating and had the 3rd best efficiency Net rating overall. Orlando is 19th in oEFF and 11th in dEFF and will relax a little in this game after the upset in G1. Detroit will be out to prove a point in this Game 2 and will make a statement against the Magic who will be content to leave the Motor City with a split.

Premier League #200045 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -2 goals (-145) over Burnley, Wednesday at 3 ET - A complete mismatch here as you can see by the massive money line on this game.  We like Manchester City on the goal line especially since -2 goals is still available at the time of this posting.  Hopefully it will hold here as this one shapes up to be an absolute rout by 3+ goals but we like the added value of the -2 goals being a push in case City falls just short of our expectations for this one.  Burnley is mired in an 0-4-1 stretch and all 4 losses were by a margin of 2 or more goals.  Manchester City is off a tight 2-1 win over a very strong Arsenal side and this was on the heels of 3 straight wins by an aggregate score of 9-0.  Yes, all 3 wins were by a multi-goal margin.  Man City has won each of the last 6 meetings with Burnley and those victories were by a combined score of 21 to 2 for an average victory margin of 3 goals per win!  We will take Manchester City on the goal line in this one at -2 goals.  

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at LA Lakers, 10:30pm ET - The Lakers got a gift in the opener of this series when Kevin Durant was a late scratch before tipoff. LA had a ridiculous shooting night at 61% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers won’t be repeated in Game 2 and were clearly outliers and not the norm. Even though the Lakers were a great shooting team this season at 50.3% overall, duplicating 61% will be near impossible, especially against a Rockets D that was 6th in opponents FG% at 46.1% allowed. The Rockets were also the 7th best team in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 35.2%. The Lakers shot 36% (14th) from beyond the arc. Houston had an off-shooting night in Game 1 by hitting 38% overall and 33% from deep, both numbers below their season averages of 47.7% and 36.4%. While these two teams are near equal offensive when it comes to efficiency stats with Houston 8th and the Lakers 9th, the defenses aren’t comparable. Houston has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the league on the season the Lakers are 19th. Also, the Lakers season long oEFF numbers come mainly with Doncic and Reaves on the floor and both are out here. Houston is 22-20 SU on the road this season, so they know what it takes to win away from home and down 0-1 we expect them to bounce back here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET - The Nuggets won the opener by 11-points but the game was closer than the final result. Minnesota actually shot better at 46% compared to 44% for the Nuggets overall, hit 32% from deep versus 28% for Denver, had nearly equal TO’s and rebounds. The difference was Denver making 16 more free throws. Minnesota went cold in the 3rd quarter when they missed 14 of their first 16 field goal attempts which is highly unusual considering they are the 9th best shooting team in the NBA, 6th best from beyond the arc. Not to mention the Nuggets defense is below average. We expect the Wolves All-Star Anthony Edwards to be better in the second game after looking rusty in Game 1 after missing time at the end of the regular season. Denver obviously has the advantage offensively ranking 1st in offensive efficiency versus the Wolves ranking 12th, but Minnesota is much better defensively in comparison to the Nuggets ranking 8th in dEFF compared to 21st. This is a solid rivalry and we expect a 6-game series similar to 2024-25 when they had an amazing 7-game playoff series. This will be a 1 or 2 possession game either way.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -8.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 6:30pm ET - All the home teams came through on Saturday in the first set of playoff games – and that makes them 18-2 SU 16-4 ATS dating back to the start of last years playoffs. As we wrote about in our Eastern Conference prediction, the Pistons are completely being overlooked and undervalued in our opinion in this first game. Detroit won 60 games this season – most in the East and had an average scoring differential of +8.2ppg. They were 31-9 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +10.5ppg. Detroit is one of a handful of teams in the playoffs that were in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating and had the 3rd best efficiency Net rating overall. Orlando is 19th in oEFF and 11th in dEFF and are in a tough spot here coming off that emotional beat-down of the Charlotte Hornets. Orlando played two very meaningful games this week with travel while the Pistons were home resting. Teams with this scheduling advantage (Detroit) have been very profitable in the past and this number is a bargain price. Part of the oddsmakers logic in making this line as low as they did is influenced by Cade Cunningham missing a portion of the season recently with a collapsed lung. But Cunningham has a few games under his belt and is off 3-days rest going into today. Plus, everyone just watched the Magic destroy the Hornets. Our power ratings have the Magic as the worst team in the playoffs, slightly below the Suns and Blazers who are both double-digit dogs to the Thunder and Spurs. Detroit will be out to prove a point in this opener and will make a statement against the Magic who may punt this game late if it gets out of hand. Lay it!

NOTE: If you have the option we recommend this as a *1ST 5 INNINGS PLAY* #907 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 Inn. -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are a massive favorite on the board today and it is deservedly so.  They just lost to a Rockies team that is annually one of the worst teams in the league and that had lost 7 of their last 8 games prior to yesterday's tight 4-3 win.  This is why the Dodgers are a -300 money line favorite and a -1.5 -180 favorite on the full game run line here.  Where we see the best value in this game is on the 1ST 5 INNINGS as the price on that is -110 and we like the lineup of the Dodgers much more than the Rockies (the numbers again this season do not lie).  We also like fading starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen of the Rockies.  Even though Roki Sasaki has had some struggles for the Dodgers early this season he is still facing a Rockies team that, prior to yesterday, was held to 3 runs or less in 13 of their 20 games this season!  Sasaki will enjoy success against a Colorado team that has not seen him yet in his young career.  As for Lorenzen, the Rockies right-hander has been roughed up in all 4 of his starts and is facing the wrong team at the wrong time to turn things around!  The Dodgers are 4-0 this season when off a loss and have scored an average of 7 runs in those 4 games.  Opponents are hitting .395 against Lorenzen in his 4 starts this season and he has an 8.62 ERA in those outings.  By the time 5 innings are in the books we expect that the Dodgers will already be up by multiple runs here and we like the value of the -110 price here on this option! Lay the -1.5 on the 1st 5 innings run line with the LA Dodgers in this one

#34 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals -105) over Los Angeles Kings, Sunday at 3 pm ET - The Avalanche are the top team in the NHL this season and they are hosting a Kings team that stumbled some to end the season.  Los Angeles lost 17 of their last 29 games and also lost more than half their games over the final month of the season.  The Avalanche won the Presidents Trophy as the top team in the NHL regular season and they are loaded with playoff experience plus 80% of their home wins this season were victories by at least a 2-goal margin.  That is why we have no hesitation here in laying the puck line with the Avs in this one.  Lay the 1.5 goals Sunday afternoon with Colorado and look for a blowout home win! 

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 6pm ET - We like the Knicks big in this one. Atlanta has put together a fun roster with some major moves this season but the Knicks have “been here and done that” already and experience will be the deciding factor in this series. The Hawks were an impressive 20-6 post All-Star break but 17 of those wins came against below .500 teams. That success has impacted the line in this game with the Hawks over-valued in this Game 1. New York had the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the league this season and was 7th in defensive efficiency. They had the 5th best efficiency differential in the league at +6.5. Atlanta was 14th in oEFF, 9th in dEFF with a differential of +2.3. The last meeting between these two teams was April 6th in Atlanta where the Hawks were favored by -1.5-points. The Hawks were on a roll at home (finished the season 14-2) and the Knicks came to town and won 108-105. Now New York is at home where they were 30-10 SU this season with an average margin of victory of +10ppg. The Hawks have been exposed when they go with their small lineup which means KAT and Robinson should have big games, especially on the glass. New York is the 3rd best rebounding team in the NBA overall, the Hawks are 12th. When it comes to shooting the Knicks have a decisive advantage there as well with the 8th best eFG% in the league compared to the Hawks 18th. We like the Knicks big in the opener. Bonus bet – Knicks in the series -1.5 games.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -3.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - I’ll be honest, as I watched the Hornets/Heat game (with dismay as we had the Hornets) my initial thought was to fade the Bugs in this play in game. But after watching the Magic it’s more than obvious this team has some major chemistry issues. The glaring thing most of you noticed when you watched the Magic play the other night was their lack of shot making. Banchero looks broken and afraid to take an 18-foot jump shot. If it weren’t for Desmond Bane, the Magic would’ve been blown out by Philly. Orlando shot just 41% overall and 26% from deep against a 76ers team that finished the season 17th in defensive efficiency. Tonight the Magic face a Charlotte team that finished the season 12th in dEFF and had the 7th best defensive Net rating in the NBA since the All-Star break. Charlotte won a wild opener against a veteran Heat team that gave them all they could handle. Tonight it should be somewhat easier for this Hornets team that had the 2nd best overall Net rating since the AS break – even better than OKC. Orlando won the 1st meeting of the season back on October 30th but then the Hornets proceeded to win three straight – all by 15+ points. Charlotte won the other night with their potential rookie of the year Knueppel going an uncharacteristic 2 of 12 from beyond the arc (42.5% season ave.) One thing I can tell from Kon as I’ve watched him all through high school here in Wisconsin is that he’ll bounce back here. Charlotte was 13-3 ATS as a road chalk this season – lay it!

German Bundesliga: #202401 ASA PLAY ON FC Koln Goal Line Pick'em (-125) over St Pauli, Friday at 2:30 pm et – We love the value with the road side here on the goal line as they enter this one on an undefeated run.  With this goal line at a pick'em that means even if this match is a draw we would still avoid a loss and get a push with this selection.  We do, of course, expect FC Koln to handle business here and get the win but just want to mention the added value of the pick'em on a goal line selection.  St Pauli is in a slump and struggling to score goals.  St Pauli is winless in the last 5 matches and has been outscored 10-2 during this stretch.  FC Koln is undefeated in the last 4 matches and has scored 9 goals in these 4 matches. The visitors are responding well to interim boss Rene Wagner while the hosts are dealing with injuries and a suspension issue impacting their attacking options. The road team goal line at a pick'em price is a value option here Friday. 

#20: ASA NHL Top play on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals -120 over Vancouver Canucks, 9 pm ET - This is a fantastic situation that developed in one of the six games on the final day of the NHL regular season.  Edmonton is right now #2 in the Pacific Division which would mean they face the Ducks in Round One plus the Oilers would have the crucial home ice edge in the series.  However, the Oilers only have a 1 point lead in the standings over Anaheim as well as Los Angeles.  That means that if Edmonton loses this game and the Ducks and Kings each win their games tonight, the Oilers would suddenly plunge to the final wild card spot meaning they would be the lowest seed in the Western Conference for the NHL post-season!  Not only would that mean no home ice edge, it would also mean that the Oilers would face the league-best Colorado Avalanche!  In other words, the magnitude of this game is huge for Edmonton tonight and, unlike Anaheim and  LA, the Oilers have the advantage of home ice in their game tonight.  Not only that, they are hosting a Canucks team that has had a very rough season.  The Oilers hammered the Canucks 6-0 in the most recent meeting and also they did win 3-1 in the only meeting here in Edmonton this season.  Lay the -1.5 on the goal line here with confidence.  The Canucks did win their home finale Tuesday and might not be too excited about one more road game before the season ends.  The Oilers also have the rest edge here since they have been off since Monday.  24 of Edmonton's last 31 wins have been by at least 2 goals.  The Canucks last 21 losses have featured 17 by a margin of 2+ goals.  Vancouver has won 3 straight games but all were after regulation time and this team has only 3 regulation wins in their 27 games since late January.  The Oilers stumbled some late in the season and Draisaitl is still likely out until the 1st round of post-season but this is still an Edmonton team loaded with talent and all their recent losses have been against playoff teams and they faced a tough schedule.  This situation tonight is much more favorable for them and they won their last 3 games against non-playoff teams by a combined score of 11-3 and they roll again here against a Canucks team that had the worst record, by far, in the NHL this season. Lay it with the home team for a top game!  

UEFA Europa League: #224430 ASA PLAY ON Nottingham Forest Goal Line Pick'em (-140) over Porto, Thursday at 3 pm et – The 1st Leg was a 1-1 battle and we love the value with the home side here on the goal line in the 2nd Leg.  With this goal line at a pick'em that means even if this match is a draw and has to be decided in AET (added extra time) we would still avoid a loss and get a push with this selection.  We do, of course, expect Nottingham Forest to handle business here without added extra time but just want to mention the added value of the pick'em on a goal line selection.  Nottingham has outscored Porto 3-1 in their last two meetings and Porto comes into this one off a 3-1 win in their league action but we like the Premier League side over the Liga Portugal side and feel we have the more talented team plus have them on their home pitch and at a value offering! 

#958 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 1:35 PM ET - The Angels might use an opener here and then the bulk of the work could go to Sam Aldegheri.  The fact is that LA is in a bind right now with their pitching rotation and this will be a tough match-up for them.  Aldegheri has a 10.80 ERA in his 3 minor league starts this season and he is 1-4 with a 6.41 ERA in his 7 appearances (5 starts) at the MLB level.  No matter who the Angels use here on the mound they are in trouble as they are unlikely to score enough to keep up.  The Angels have been playing better than expected recently, though they lost 5-4 yesterday, thanks to the longball.  However, Max Fried gets the start here for the Yankees and he has not allowed a homer in his 4 starts this season.  Fried is off to a great start this season (as per usual) and this is after he went 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA last season.  The Yankees are a big money line favorite here at home and so we turn to the run line for solid value on this one.  The Yankees ride the momentum of last night's walk-off win and they win this one by a big margin thanks in part to the pitching mismatch here in the Bronx Thursday afternoon.  Lay the 1.5 runs Thursday with the New York Yankees

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -5.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - I really think the Warriors window has closed. Kerr isn’t the coach he once was and father time has caught up to Draymond Green and Steph Curry. If we look at what these teams have done since the All-Star break we find the Clippers have a 16-12 SU record and a +3.9 Net differential. Golden State in that same time frame is 8-19 SU with a -5.3 Net rating. To put that into perspective, based on Net rating since the AS Break the Warriors are the 10th worst team in the NBA and have a lower rating than the Pelicans. LA has dominated this rivalry in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last 10 meetings with the GST. You’ll be surprised to know, the Clippers are the 4th best shooting team in the NBA overall and 7th in 3PT%. The Warriors defense ranks 23rd in FG% defense and 19th in 3PT% D. Conversely, the Warriors shoot just 46.1% on the season (24th) and 35.6% from beyond the arc, 20th. The Clippers are 14th in FG% defense, 22nd in 3PT% but clearly the Warriors can’t take advantage. LA is better on both ends of the court and we expect the home team to win by double digits in this one.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - Yes, the Heat and Spoelstra have a clear advantage on the bench, but this game is going to be won on the floor and quite frankly, the Hornets have been the much better team since the All-Star break. Charlotte is 18-9 SU since the break with the 2nd best Net rating in the league at +11.1, only behind the Spurs. In that same time frame the Heat have a Net rating of +2.2 which rates 16th. Charlotte has an average plus/minus at home of +10.5ppg at home since the AS break with an overall record of 9-6. Miami finished the season with a 4-8 road run and an average loss margin of -4.0ppg. Charlotte was just favored by -5.5 points at home against the Pistons and were favored by -2.5 points in late March against Boston, -2 versus the Knicks. Those three teams are considerably better than this Heat team that has underperformed all season long. Charlotte is the 3rd best 3PT shooting team in the league and the Heat struggle defending the arc with the 17th worst 3PT% D in the NBA. Lastly, the Heat/Spoelstra are getting a lot of attention in this matchup which has impacted the betting markets in favor of Miami, yet the Books refuse to move their number. It’s the changing of the guard and the Hornets come out on top in this one.

#954 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+120) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Pirates are a heavy favorite here at home on Tuesday and we love the value with the run line in this spot as we get plus money by laying the 1.5 runs.  Pittsburgh not only has been the better team plus is at home here, they also have a big pitching edge in this one.  Miles Mikolas is off to an awful start for the Nationals and has gone 0-3 with a 12.41 ERA this season.  This is not a huge surprise as his last 3 seasons with the Cardinals saw a decline as well and Mikolas is now 8-14 the past two seasons combined. The Pirates Mitch Keller had a solid spring with 20 strikeouts in 15 innings.  Though his K numbers are down some since the regular season started, he continues to pitch extremely well.  Keller has a 1.00 ERA in his first 3 starts this season and has held hitters to a .188 batting average.  The Pirates bullpen rates only in the middle of the pack this season for bullpen ERA but the Nationals bullpen has an ugly 6.72 ERA which is dead last in the majors.  The Pirates build off yesterday's 16-5 win with another big-margin win in this one.  Lay the 1.5 runs Tuesday with Pittsburgh

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -10.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:40pm ET - It’s the last day of the regular season which can be tough to navigate without knowing exactly who or who isn’t going to play. In this game we know the Nuggets are sitting everyone that matters. They have their top 9 players listed as out for today’s game and will end up the #4 seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs don’t technically have anything to play for either, other than sending a message to Denver who they’ll likely face in the second round of the playoffs. San Antonio is young and has a deep roster so even when they sit starters later in this game it shouldn’t matter as we’re betting they have a big lead at that point and the guys off the bench are much better than Denver’s reserves. In fact, the Spurs have the #1 bench rating in the league at +6.6, the Nuggets are 15th at -3.8. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets are 23-3 SU with the best average +/- in the league at +13.5ppg. The Nuggets are 17-8 SU in that same time frame and plus +6.8ppg. San Antonio has won 13 or their last fourteen home games by an average of +12.8ppg. Denver hasn’t been great away from home lately with a 5-6 SU record in their last eleven road games. Given who’s playing we expect this to be a very ugly game for Denver from start to finish. Lay it with the Spurs.

#956 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:40 PM ET - Great spot for the Brewers which we were waiting on.  Milwaukee is back home where they are 5-1 this season.  They are off B2B losses on the road including a rare shutout loss which was by a 5-0 count Wednesday.  All 8 Brewers wins this season have come by a margin of 2+ runs.  Their 5 home wins have come by an aggregate score of 43-14.  The Nationals have hit decently this season but the Brewers .448 slugging percentage in home games is #1 in the National League so far this season.  Milwaukee has the starting pitching edge plus a significant bullpen edge here.  The Brewers bullpen has a 2.66 ERA this season while Washington's has a 6.34 ERA which ranks dead last in the National League.  Milwaukee's Chad Patrick has been solid in his first two starts this season and allowed just 1 earned run in 9 and 1/3 innings.  He had a 3.38 ERA in his rookie season last year.  The Nationals Jake Irvin had a 5.70 ERA last season and he gave up 2 homers in 5 innings in his lone road start this season and allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his other, and most recent, start. Irvin has struggled overall against the Brewers in his 3 MLB seasons prior to this one.  Dating all the way back to May of last season and including the post-season, the last 8 times Milwaukee has been shutout they have won their very next game 6 times.  Look for another big win in that situation here as the Brewers bounce back at home.  The run line is available at plus money here and we invest in a strong home team supported by big edges in this one. Lay the 1.5 runs Friday with Milwaukee!   

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7:10pm ET - The Pistons literally have nothing to play for. They have locked up the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and can’t catch OKC or San Antonio in the West for hosting the Finals. Charlotte on the other hand has everything to play for as they would love to climb up the standing of the play in games and potentially get a home game plus play one game to get in and not two. Detroit will rest starters in this game and we doubt we’ll see much of Cunningham with him just returning to action after a collapsed lung. Let’s not forget, the Hornets have been one of the best teams in the league since the All-Star break with a 17-8 SU record and the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league at +12.2. Only the Spurs and Thunder have played better since the break. Charlotte has won 9 of their last fourteen home games, Detroit is 8-6 SU on the road since the AS game. The Hornets are coming off a loss in Boston most recently which also puts them in a favorable situation. Charlotte is 23-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with an average MOV of +3.8ppg. Detroit is off a big win over the Bucks and we doubt they’ll show the Hornets much in this game considering they may face them in the 1st round of the playoffs. This is also the 3rd and final regular season meeting between these teams and is a double revenge spot for the Hornets. The Pistons won the first two meetings by a combined 32 points and Charlotte is out for payback. Playing with double revenge the Hornets get the call in this one! We will lay it here with Charlotte.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - The Celtics are going to rest Derrick White and Jaylen Brown on Thursday against the Knicks. Yes, the C’s are deep but we’re not sure they’re going to be able to beat the Knicks down 2 starters. The Knicks have a little more incentive to win here so they maintain the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston has been great on the road this season with a 26-14 SU record, but the Knicks have been fantastic at home with a 28-9 record and an average margin of victory of +10.4ppg. New York has a slightly better record in division games at 12-3 SU compared to the Celtics 10-5 SU mark. The home team has covered 5 of the last six meetings between these two rivals, 2 of three this season. New York nearly lost at home the other night to the Hawks and should play with a greater sense of urgency in this divisional showdown. The Celtics look like they are more concerned with health heading into the postseason. Lay it with New York.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - The line on this game is the ‘tell’ as Cleveland should be a bigger favorite at home over the Hawks. Clearly the oddsmakers are looking to bait some bettors into backing the Cavs at a cheap price but we won’t bite. The facts of the matter are this. Cleveland is in a very favorable position in the Eastern Conference right now sitting 4th in the standings and hosting in the 1st round (potentially this same Hawks team). They trail the Knicks by 1 game but don’t want to move up so they can avoid the Celtics in the second round and play the Cunningham-less Pistons to try and make the EC Finals. Atlanta meanwhile has a lot more to play for as they sit 5th in the East but could slip into the play in tourney with a few losses. Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the Knicks on Sunday (unfortunately we had them) where they led for a majority of the game before blowing it late. We expect a very focused effort here form a Hawks team that is playing well right now. Atlanta has the 7th best Net rating over the last 10-game period at +9.7 compared to the Cavs +4.7. The biggest contributing factor has been their defense which is 7th in defensive Net rating over that same stretch of games. The Cavs are 17th. Atlanta is the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Cavs 3PT defense is 26th. We expect a motivated Hawks team to win this game rather easily with the Cavs potentially resting everyone.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 (+110) over Athletics, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees have won 5 of 6 as part of their 8-2 start to the season and all 8 wins have been by a multi-run margin.  The Athletics are 3-7 this season and are 0-4 against AL East teams.  This one sets up as a complete mismatch.  Yankees bullpen has a 2.86 ERA and Athletics bullpen has a 5.48 ERA.  Yankees have a .413 slugging percentage at home and the Athletic have a paltry .296 slugging percentage in road games.  The starting pitching is also a huge edge for the Yankees here.  Will Warren has a 2.70 ERA this season and had a 3.50 ERA in his home starts last season.  Also, he went 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in his two starts against the Athletics last season as Warren dominated them.  The A's Severino is at the other end of the spectrum.  He is off to a tough start this season including having command issues.  Also, last season Severino got destroyed by his former team as he went 0-2 with a 15.26 ERA in a pair of disastrous outings against the Yankees.  This one checks all the boxes for us to go with our strongest selection yet this season!  Dominating home win in the forecast here in the Bronx Wednesday. Lay the 1.5 runs with the New York Yankees for a Top Game Wednesday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (-1.5 goals +105) over Vancouver Canucks, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Vegas is rolling since they made the move to veteran head coach John Tortorella.  The Golden Knights have won 3 straight games and those victories were by a combined score of 15 to 6 and all 3 wins covered the puck line of -1.5 goals.  Vegas will do it again here as they take advantage of facing a very bad Canucks team that they also already beat 4-2 in Tortorella's debut.  Vancouver has not only lost 8 of its last 9 games, each of its last 10 losses have been by a multi-goal margin.  There certainly are no signs of that changing here and this should be another ugly loss for a Canucks team that simply can not wait for this rough season to come to an end.  Road team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Vegas is the value play here.  

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - The T’Wolves have incentive to win here as they would lock up a top 6 seed in the Western Conference and avoid the play in tournament. The Pacers are by far the easiest win on the remaining schedule so expect the Wolves to go all out here so they can rest after tonight. Indiana had a slight bump in their play recently, but injuries have taken a massive toll on their roster as they’ll dress just 9 players tonight and are missing their top 5 scorers. We also like the fact that Minnesota is off 3 straight losses, including a home defeat most recently to the Hornets. Looking back at Minnesota’s schedule they are just 14-11 SU in their last 25 games BUT the eleven losses all came against current playoff bound teams. In their last two games against non-playoff teams or teams on the Pacers level, they have a 30-point win in Dallas and a 36-point win over the Jazz. As we mentioned, the Pacers had some of their regulars back in the lineup in recent weeks and played well, but in their last two games they’ve suffered two double-digit defeats. Indiana has the second worst record in the NBA at 18-60, just one more win than the Wizards who have 17. Minnesota should take advantage of the Pacers porous defense that allows opponents to hit 49% of their field goal attempts overall and 35.7% of their 3PT attempts. The Wolves are the 9th best shooting team in the league overall and 6th best in 3PT%. Lay it here with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - We will ride the red hot Hawks in this game and predict a solid win by the home team in this Eastern Conference showdown. If you’ve been sleeping on Atlanta then you probably don’t know the Hawks have won 13 straight home games and 18 of their last 20 games overall. What’s most impressive in that stretch of games is the fact that 16 of those eighteen wins have come by 10+ points. In their 13-game home winning streak they have an average margin of victory +18.3ppg. The Knicks have been an average road team this season with a 21-19 SU record with an average +/- in those games of +2.6ppg. New York is .500 in their last 10 road games with an average MOV of +1.7ppg – so nothing to scare us off taking the Hawks at home. If we dig a little deeper into the Knicks last 10 away games we also find the 5 wins have come against: Memphis, Brooklyn, Indiana, Utah and Denver – just one team with a winning record. The 5 losses in that same stretch of games came at: Houston, OKC, Charlotte, LA Clippers and LA Lakers. The Knicks sit 3rd in the East and only 1-game ahead of the Cavs in 4th place but they may prefer the four seed to avoid Boston in the conference finals. Atlanta is 5th in the East but trail the Cavs by 4-games so they’re not moving up in the standings but they certainly don’t want to slip down with three teams just 2-games behind them. The Hawks are clearly playing better right now with the 7th best efficiency differential over the last 5-games at +14.5 compared to the Knicks eDIFF of +1.8 in that same span of games. We will trust the Hawks here at home to get a win over the Knicks.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3.5 at Golden State Warriors 10pm ET - The Warriors are not the same Warriors that it was in the past and to be honest, and are barely above the likes of Memphis, New Orleans and Dallas, even though they have 10 more wins on the season. Golden State is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games and the 4 wins came against Washington twice, Brooklyn by 3-points and Dallas in OT. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since March 5th and coincidentally that team was Houston by 2-points in OT. Golden State is pretty much locked into the 10th seed in the Western Conference and are just trying to stay somewhat healthy. Houston on the other hand still has a shot at the 4 seed which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. Houston has won 5 straight games and 7 of their last nine overall. One of those losses came recently in Minnesota where they were a 2-point favorite. The loss isn’t the interesting factor in that game, it’s the spread of -2 which is obviously slightly lower than today’s spread against a far worse GST team. These two teams played on this court in November with the Rockets winning 104-100 and that was without Durant playing for Houston, while the Warriors had Butler, Curry and Green in the lineup. Houston has the 7th best average +/- over the last 10-games of +10.4ppg. Golden State has an average +/- scoring differential of minus -7.3ppg over that same 10-game period. Houston is healthy and will win this game by 4+ points.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -3.5 over West Virginia, Sunday at 5:30 PM ET - We were on the Sooners yesterday vs Baylor and picked up an easy win 82-69 leading for 90% of the game. After a poor shooting night vs Colorado in round 1 (just 37%), the Sooners rebounded nicely hitting 50% vs the Bears. This is a very good shooting team that is in the top 45 nationally in eFG% and 3 point FG% while ranking in the top 20 in offensive efficiency. As we stated yesterday, OU’s numbers since early February have been very impressive as they are a top 20 team metrically and rank 11th in offensive efficiency during that stretch. They have now won 10 of their las 13 games including a number of wins over NCAA tourney teams including Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, and Texas A&M. This offense shoots a lot of 3’s (44% of their FG attempts come from deep) and they hit them at a high rate (almost 37%). WVU has solid defensive numbers but their weakness is defending the arc where they barely rank inside the top 200. Offensively, the Mountaineers are not good. They rolled over Creighton yesterday with an outlier offensive performance hitting 53% overall and 40% from 3 point land. That’s from a team that has shot just 44% on the season (241st) and 32% from deep (246th). The prior game, a come from behind OT win over Stanford, they made only 2 of 20 from deep. This is not a good offensive team as they finished 15th in the Big 12 in efficiency and dead last (16th) in 3 point FG%. They are also one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country (328th making only 68%) which could definitely bit them in a tight game (Sooners shoot 75% from the FT line). One of OU’s weaknesses is on the defensive glass but that shouldn’t be a huge factor here as WVU is a poor offensive rebounding team (12th in the Big 12). Oklahoma is better on the offensive glass (90th in the country / WVU is 178th) and they turn the ball over at a much lower rate (29th in the country to 191st for WVU). The Sooners have already taken out 2 Big 12 teams to get to this point (Colorado & Baylor) and they get their shot at a 3rd today. Big offensive edge for Oklahoma and we’ll lay the short number in the Crown Championship game.

#918 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) over Miami Marlins, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - This game might start a little later than the scheduled first pitch as some rain could move through the Bronx around mid-day. However, once this game gets underway it is likely to be another blowout win for New York. The Yankees have won 4 straight and in their 7-1 start to the season all 7 wins have been by a multi-run margin. The Marlins are 5-3 this season but their 5 wins came against the teams that were the worst in each league last season respectively. Miami beat up on the AL-worst White Sox and NL-worst Rockies to begin the season. Now they are facing a much tougher opponent here and that is showing as the Marlins have lost both games and by an aggregate score of 17 to 9. All 3 of Miami's losses this season have been by 2+ runs. The Yankees also have a massive pitching edge here as Max Fried is going for the Bronx Bombers while the Fish have Chris Paddack slated to get the start here. Paddack is coming off a 5-12 season in which he compiled a 5.35 ERA. His first start of the season was a disaster too even though it was against the White Sox. As for Fried, he is coming off another fantastic season and also has started this season with a perfect 2-0 record. The southpaw has allowed only 5 hits in his 13 and 1/3 scoreless innings so far. Dominating home win in the forecast here in the Bronx Sunday. Lay the 1.5 runs Friday with the New York Yankees

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+110) over NY Islanders, 7:00 pm ET Saturday - The Islanders looked horrible last night in a 4-1 loss to the Flyers and that game was on home ice so the test here in Carolina will be even tougher. The Islanders are playing with a lot of pressure to make the post-season while the Hurricanes are well-set and even have a shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference! The pressure seems to be getting to the Islanders as they have lost 3 straight and now they are on the road and facing a Canes team that's last 4 wins have all been by a margin of 3+ goals! The Hurricanes have scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 7 home ice wins and they averaged scoring 5 goals in those 7 victories! The Islanders have one high-scoring win in their last 7 games but they scored an average of only 2 goals in the other 6 games. This one sets up to be a home blowout. We lay the puck line (-1.5 goals) for a plus money return (+110) on the Hurricanes as they should dominate this match-up Saturday.   

#649 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -1.5 over UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Illinois has a number of key advantages in this game, especially on offense. They rank #1 per KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency averaging 131.7 points per 100 possessions which is the highest ever in the KenPom era (since 1997). They are shooting 36% from deep in this tourney and that includes a 3 of 17 effort (17%) vs Iowa in the Elite 8. The Illini were outscored by 24 points from beyond the arc in that game and still won by double digits. UConn has hit only 29% of their triples in this tourney and were trailing Duke by 19 points in the Elite 8 before coming back for a 1 point win. They also went to the wire with Michigan State winning by 4 and that was with a rare hot shooting night from deep as the Huskies hit 43% of their 3s in that tight win. Illinois should have solid advantages in some key areas that aren’t often talked about but should loom large in this game. They are the much better FT shooting team at 78% (UConn 71%) and the Illini should get their more often as well. Connecticut fouls a lot with 24% of their opponent’s points coming from the charity stripe which is 19th most in the country. Illinois opponents only score 13% of their points from the FT line which is dead last in the country. Illinois should also control the boards where they rank 3rd nationally on the offensive glass while UConn is barely in the top 90 on the defensive boards. The Illini also rarely have empty possessions with an offensive turnover rate that ranks in the top 10 in the country (UConn 178th in that key stat). Defensively, the Huskies have better efficiency numbers, however Illinois still sits in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and they have stepped it up on the Big Dance holding 3 straight opponents under 60 points (VCU, Houston, and Iowa). Two of those offenses, Houston & Iowa, rank in the top 20 nationally in efficiency and both are rated higher offensively than Connecticut. Another “hidden” advantage not many are talking about is the fact that this will be a semi home game for Illinois. They have a huge contingent in Indianapolis which is only 2 hours from Champaign. Our one worry here is Connecticut head coach Hurley has had very good tourney success and has been in this spot. Illinois coach Underwood has not been to the Final 4. That being said, we still feel the Illini have enough key advantages to get this win.

#645 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -1 over Baylor, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - This is a semi final match up in the Crown Tourney being played in Las Vegas. Oklahoma picked up a win in OT vs Colorado on Wednesday while Baylor topped Minnesota. The Sooners won despite shooting only 37% from the field and just 27% from deep which is well below their season averages of 47% and 36%. They put up only 1.09 PPP in that win and their season average was 1.23 PPP. OU was getting good shots and because of that, the Shot Quality analytics score in that game had the Sooners winning by 19 points rather than 4 points. Baylor rolled over a Minnesota team that was playing with only a 6 man rotation and shot only 39% overall and made just 3 of 23 triples (13%). The Gophs also made just 47% of their FTs in that game. OU started just 1-9 in SEC play but since that poor start, they won 9 of their final 12 games and are rated as a top 20 team metrically since early February per Bart Torvik analytics. Down the stretch this Oklahoma team beat a number of NCAA tourney teams including Vandy, Georgia, Texas, Missouri, and Texas A&M. They didn’t have a good shooting night on Wednesday, however since early February this Sooner offense ranks 7th in the country in efficiency as we expect a much better performance vs a Baylor D that ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency. While OU was scorching in the 2nd half of the season topping a number of quality opponents, Baylor is just 7-14 since January 1st after winning 10 of their first 12 prior to that. We mentioned Oklahoma topping a number of NCAA tourney teams, not so much for Baylor. The Bears beat ONE NCAA tourney team the entire season topping Central Florida (a 10 seed) by 1 point. The Sooners have been playing their best basketball over the last 2 months, they have the better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively, and we’re only laying 1 point. Oklahoma wins and moves onto the Crown Tourney Championship on Sunday.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10pm ET - Typically, I wouldn’t play on a team like the 76ers coming off a 153 point outburst but today I’ll make an exception. The Sixers are the much more desperate team here sitting 6th in the Eastern Conference but basically tied with Toronto and only 1 game ahead of Charlotte in the 7th or 8th seed. That will mean a play-in situation for Philly if they slip in the ranks. Minnesota is comfortably in the 6th seed in the West and may be content to stay there in the first round to play the Lakers instead of moving up to the 5 seed to face the Nuggets. Minnesota is coming off a tough game last night in Detroit and will be playing their 3rd straight road game. Philly is coming off a blowout win over the Wizards on Wednesday 153-131 and have now won 5 of their last seven games. The 76ers have Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Oubre Jr back in the lineup and look considerably better in recent games. Looking at each teams last 5 games we find the 76ers have a better Net rating at +4.1 compared to the Wolves +2.7. The big difference in this game will come down to shooting and getting buckets. Philly has the 5th best eFG% over the last 5 games with a healthy roster (sans Embiid) while the Wolves have the 30th or worst eFG% in that same span of games. We like the rest advantage and the home team laying a short number. Buy Philadelphia!

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +16 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - This is a solid scheduling situation to back the Pacers and grab the generous points against the Hornets in Charlotte tonight. The Hornets are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night, playing their 3rd in four nights AND 5th game in 7 days. PLUS, they have huge games looming in Minnesota, at Boston, home against Detroit then at New York. We can’t imagine the Hornets will be ‘up’ tonight to face the 18-win Pacers. Indiana is doing one thing really well right now and that’s shooting the basketball. The Pacers have the best eFG% in the NBA over the last 5-games at 64.3%, and last 10games at 61.3%. Overall, the Pacers have played well above expectations in recent weeks with the 10th best Net rating in the NBA at +6.3. That’s not much different than the Hornets +9.0 Net rating in that same span of games. Indiana has won two straight road game and has a negative average point differential of minus -10ppg in their last nine road games. A great comparable for this game which tells us the line is too high is the Pacers recent game in San Antonio where they were essentially an underdog by the same number of +16. Charlotte is playing well, but they are not on the Spurs level in the league right now. Charlotte does have some blowout home wins in recent weeks over bad teams, but this is going to be a really tough spot for them. Grab the points.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-116) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 2:10 PM ET - This is the Blue Jays first road trip of the season but Mother Nature gave them a favorable break with yesterday's game being postponed.  So Toronto has been off since Wednesday and they knew about Thursday's postponement in advance.  That means the Jays are well-rested here and we are expecting domination against a White Sox team that is off to a horrible start to the season.  Chicago is 1-5 thus far and incredibly they have allowed 9 or more runs in 4 of their 5 losses.  Their bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season.  Now, in comparing bullpens one will see that the Jays also have a rather high ERA so far.  However, that has been isolated to two tougher performances and a few relievers.  Toronto is 4-2 this season and has allowed 2 or less runs 4 of their 6 games this season.  They have plenty of strong bullpen arms available for this game and we also like the fact that Toronto is coming off a loss Wednesday.  They will be fully focused and ready to go here and that includes projected starter Dylan Cease.  He was with the White Sox for the first 5 years of his MLB career.  He then, as a member of the Padres, faced the Sox for the first time in September and he took the loss here in Chicago.  Cease wants, and will get, payback in this one!  The right-hander is off a dominating first start in which he struck out 12 in 5 and 1/3 innings.  As for the White Sox starter here, they are likely to use Grant Taylor as an opener and then Sean Burke will get most of the work.  We watched him against the Brewers last week and he struggled quite a bit and allowed 4 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits in just 4 innings!  The point is that the beleaguered White Sox bullpen also could be called upon early again here and we expect the Blue Jays bats to score very well in this one (even on a chilly day in Chicago).  The Jays batting average this season is 3rd in the AL while the White Sox team batting average is a paltry .192 and that ranks 27th in the majors.  The run line is available at a very fair money line price here and we invest in last year's AL Champion Blue Jays and fade a White Sox team known for being horrible year in and year out - including an AL-worst 60-102 last season. Lay the 1.5 runs Friday with Toronto

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - This is a great situational spot to fade the Spurs and back the Clippers. San Antonio is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back as they played at Golden State Wednesday night. This is also the Spurs 3rd game in four nights, 5th game in nine days. The Spurs are on a blistering run right now but four of their last 9 wins have come against non-playoff qualifiers. We like the fact that the Clippers are off an upset home loss to the Blazers two nights ago (thank you Portland) and are focused here with playoff positioning on the line. Granted, the Spurs have incentive to win also, but catching the Thunder is a lot to ask considering OKC would need to lose several games and that’s not likely to happen. LA had won 5 straight games prior to the loss. The two prior meetings between these two teams were both decided by just 4-point each. The Clippers have the rest advantage, are highly motivated and have an 8-3 ATS record as a home dog this season. Inflation in the number and desperation have us on the Clippers.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - These two teams are eerily similar and with the Suns now having Dillon Brooks back in the lineup we like them to keep this game close or win outright. In each teams most recent 5-games these two teams rank 3rd (Hornets) and 5th (Suns) in Net Rating. Charlotte has a Net rating of +14.8 in their last 5 games, the Suns are at +13.0. Rebound rate in also near even in that stretch of games as is eFG%. When if comes to efficiency differentials only almost dead even at +13.6 and +13.5. Charlotte was racking up wins left and right until their schedule stiffened in recent games as they lost to both Philadelphia and Boston as small home favorites. The Hornets are 4-5 SU in their last nine games at home against a team that is currently in a playoff position. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five games and is 4-2 ATS their last six as a dog. They are coming off a 4-point loss to the Magic on Tuesday night and have a 20-13 ATS record this season when coming off an ‘L’. Charlotte is a solid 11-7 ATS at home as a chalk but this will be a tough cover against a Phoenix team that recently beat them by 12 in the Desert. The key advantage in this match up is the Suns 3PT shooting (9th in 3PT%) going up against a Hornets 3PT% D that is 18th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the league, but the Suns have the 2nd best 3PT% defense allowing just 34.6%. This has the feel of a 1 or 2-point game either way. Grab the points.

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+140) over Columbus, 7:00 pm ET Thursday - The Blue Jackets just got hammered by the Hurricanes and that game was on home ice so the test here in Carolina will be even tougher. Columbus is playing with a lot of pressure to make the post-season while the Hurricanes are well-set and even have a shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference! The pressure seems to be getting to the Blue Jackets as they have lost 4 straight and now they are on the road and facing a Canes team that's last 3 wins have all been by a margin of 3+ goals! The Hurricanes have scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 6 home ice wins and they averaged scoring 5 goals in those 6 victories! The Blue Jackets have scored an average of only 1.8 goals in their last 6 games. This one sets up to be a home blowout. We lay the puck line (-1.5 goals) for a plus money return (+140) on the Hurricanes as they should dominate this match-up again.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +17.5 at Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - Let’s start by saying this…I hate taking the Bucks right now as they are a very hard team to trust with Doc Rivers running the show. But, I’ll make an exception tonight as the number is higher than it should be and we expect Milwaukee to keep it relatively close and within the spread. Both teams played last night with the Rockets winning a huge game over the Knicks 111-94. Houston starters logged heavy minutes in the win with Smith Jr, Durant and Thompson all playing 34+ minutes. Milwaukee got a much needed win over the Mavericks 123-99. If you have been following the Bucks, Rivers is employing a new strategy and playing everyone around 20+ minutes so the back-to-back tonight shouldn’t be a factor. This is the largest spread the Rockets have been favored by all season long and while we feel they’ll win this game, we don’t think it’s going to be the blowout the oddsmakers are suggesting. On the season the Rockets have an average plus/minus of +4.5ppg, the Bucks are negative at -6.0ppg, both within reason for tonight’s game and this pointspread. Houston is 26-10 SU on their home court with an average margin of victory of +6.48ppg, the Bucks are 13-24 SU away from home with an average MOV of minus -7.7ppg. The O/U on this game is set at 218.5 which suggests a lower scoring game which makes covering this big number tough for Houston. We will grab the points with the Bucks.

#891 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -9 over Colorado, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This game is part of the Crown Tournament being played in Las Vegas. Oklahoma looks like they’ll have their entire team playing in this one while Colorado will have to deal big time player personnel losses. 3 of CU’s 4 leading scores from this season are already in the transfer portal and won’t play in this game. Starting PG Johnson and Forwards Rancik and Dak are all gone. Those 3 accounted for HALF of the Buffs points this season averaging a combined 40 PPG for a team that averaged 80 PPG. That’s tough to overcome vs a team that is already better by a decent margin in our opinion. The Sooners are 19-15 on the season but they were really good down the stretch winning 8 of their last 11 games after starting the SEC season 1-9. Not only did they win 8 of their last 11, they beat a number of NCAA tournament teams during that stretch including Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M and 6 of those 8 wins came by double digits. 2 of their 3 losses during that stretch came by 4 points or less vs A&M and Arkansas (both tourney teams) and the other loss was @ Tennessee who just played in the Elite 8. Since the Sooners started this run back on February 7th, Torvik analytics has them rated as the 13th best team in the country during that stretch and the 3rd best offense in the country averaging 1.31 PPP. They topped 80 points in all 8 of those wins and eclipsed 90 in 3 of them. OU is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country (36th) and facing a Colorado defense that allows opponents to shoot 37% from deep (340th nationally). The one thing they do struggle with, defensive rebounding, shouldn’t be an issue here vs a CU team that ranks 235th on the offensive glass and just lost their best rebounder (Dak) to the portal. Oklahoma has better season long efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively and those stats for CU were with their 3 key players that are now gone and they had only one Quad 1 win all season long even at full strength. OU seems to be all in on this tourney while the Buffaloes look like they are simply playing out the string. Sooners by double digits.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +5.5 at LA Clippers, 11:10pm ET - This game has big implications for each team as the Clippers hold the 8th spot in the Western Conference while the Blazers are 9th. The Clippers won both meetings with Portland earlier this season but that was in late October and late December and a lot has changed since then, especially for L.A. Looking at each teams efficiency stats we find they have the 2nd (Clippers) and 3rd best eDIFF’s over the last 5 games with both teams playing at a high level. Looking at that same 5-game period, the Blazers have the lowest or best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.013-points per possession, which is a major factor when getting these many points in a game. If we go back to each teams previous 10 games, we find the Blazers are playing at a higher level with the 3rd best overall Net rating in the league compared to the Clippers 12th. The Blazers work on the offensive glass in recent weeks has been significantly better than the Clippers too with Portland ranking 3rd in offensive rebound rate compared to the Clippers ranking 23rd. We like those added possessions and scoring possibilities for Portland in this matchup. Portland has covered 4 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court. We will grab the points with the Trailblazers.

#968 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - Entering this series Colorado was 0-3 on the season and the Blue Jays were 3-0. Surprisingly, the series started with a big 14-5 Rockies win yesterday. Year in and year out, the Rockies are a dreadful road team and we are banking on a bounce back for the Blue Jays today. Veteran starter Max Scherzer looked great in spring training this season and the Rockies Ryan Feltner struggled with command in his spring outings and could carry that right into the season. Also, Feltner's overall MLB stats have not impressed in his career as he is 9-26 with a 5.19 ERA in his career. The Blue Jays are slugging at a .460 clip so far this season and that is #1 in the AL The Rockies, prior to yesterday's rare explosion, were struggling at the plate and those road struggles have been typical of this Colorado team for many years in a row now. Those struggles quickly resume here while the Jays respond after the embarrassing loss. Toronto was 54-27 at home last season while the Rockies went 18-63 on the road. Last season the Blue Jays had only 5 instances all season long where they were playing at home after a home loss by a margin of 6 or more runs. Toronto went 5-0 (100%) on the year in this situation. One of those five wins was in extra innings but the other 4 wins were all by a margin of at least 2 runs! We are banking on the fact that this one will be too! The run line is available at a very fair money line price here and we invest in a strong home team against a team known for being horrible on the road. Lay the 1.5 runs Tuesday with Toronto

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +1.5 -125 at Charlotte Hornets, 6:10 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they look to improve seedings in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are the league up-and-comers, while the overlooked Celtics has shocked everyone with their 49-24 record this season. The Celtics will be out for payback here as the Hornets beat them in Boston earlier this month 118-89. Boston had an unusually poor shooting night of 38% overall and just 28% from deep. Those numbers came against a slightly better than average Hornets defense so the logical regression would be for Boston to make more shots here. Plus, the Hornets are coming off a big game yesterday against the 76ers, a 4-point home loss. In fact, the Bugs have played two very big games in a row (faced the Knicks on Thursday) and will have a tough time getting up for the 3rd big game in a row, especially without rest. There is no question the Hornets are playing fantastic basketball right now with a 13-4 SU record in their last 17 games with one of the best +/-‘s in the league, but then why are they a dog in this game? Boston is 23-13 SU on the road this season with the 3rd highest margin of victory of +7.3ppg. Despite their success, the Hornets are only 19-17 SU on their home court this season, 6-14 SU as a home underdog. Boston finds a way to win this road game.

#636 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET - The Vols caught a break in their most recent game getting to face Iowa State without their most important player, Joshua Jefferson, who was out with an ankle injury. Because of that injury to the Cyclones best big man who averaged 17 PPG and 8 RPG this year, ISU was unable to keep up on the boards which is a death sentence vs this Tennessee team. The Vols rebounded a ridiculous 53% of their missed shots which helped lead to 42 points in the paint compared to 30 for Iowa State. Tennessee was +21 overall on the glass which made it nearly impossible for ISU to stay in that game. On top of that, the normally solid shooting ISU team made only 5 of 23 from deep (21%) which was well below their season average of 38% (15th in the nation). The Cyclone shots were solid looks and in fact despite the 16 point loss, Shot Quality post game stats had ISU winning that game. The Vols thrive on the offensive glass for extra opportunities because they aren’t a great shooting team (143rd eFG% and 175th 3 point FG%). That won’t happen here. Michigan is big inside and they are a very good rebounding team. They more than held their own vs the 2 best rebounding teams in the Big 10 (Illinois and MSU) who are very comparable with Tennessee in that regard. Michigan played 3 games vs those 2 teams and had a plus rebounding margin in 2 of those games and were dead even in the other. Other than the offensive glass, where Michigan isn’t that far behind UT, the Wolverines have advantages in pretty much every other key metric. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively (5th in offense & 1st in defense), better eFG%, better 3 point FG%, better FT%, better on the defensive glass, and they turn the ball over at a lower rate. Michigan is the much better team here and they’ve proven it all season vs high level teams going 19-3 in Quad 1 games while Tennessee is 8-10 vs Quad 1 teams. This line is actually a bit short in our opinion as Michigan was just favored by 9.5 (won by 13) vs an Alabama team that is nearly dead even with UT in the KenPom ratings and finished 2 games ahead of the Vols in SEC play. Tennessee was also just a 4.5 to 5 point dog vs an ISU team without their best player. We like Michigan in this spot to win and cover.

#630 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -7 over Iowa, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Iowa has been a bit fortunate shooting over 50% in each of the last 2 games to pull out outright wins as underdogs in both vs Florida & Nebraska. In their game on Thursday night vs the Huskers, they hit 52% of their shots (43% from deep) while Nebraska shot just 41% yet the Hawkeyes led for only led for 2 minutes of that game. The Huskers led by 10 with under 5:00 remaining and lost by 6. Iowa’s first lead of the entire game came with 2:10 remaining despite shooting lights out. That was vs a Nebraska team that started the season winning 20 straight games but they weren’t playing all that well down the stretch going just 8-7 their last 15 games. The Illini, on the other hand, dominated a very good Houston team that came into the game with a 30-6 record and 2 of those losses were vs #1 Arizona. On top of that, the game was in Houston so basically a home game for the Cougars. The Illini won by 10 (could have been worse) despite making only 12 of 21 FT’s (57%) and that from a team that hits almost 80% of their freebies on the season. They dominated the glass (+11) vs a very good rebounding team and Houston led for less than 2 minutes of that game. These 2 Big 10 foes met once this season in Iowa City and Illinois won that game by 6 but led by 18 and Iowa never had a lead in that game. Illinois should easily win the battle on the boards in this one (3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country) and they should also win at the FT line as the Illini foul less than any other team in the country while still playing great defense. Iowa’s D has solid overall numbers but since February 1st they barely break the top 100 in efficiency. The Hawks are poor defending inside the arc (282nd) and they are facing the tallest team in the country is top 25 in 2 point FG%. Not only that, everyone in the Illinois rotation can make 3’s and we’re not sure how Iowa can slow this offense (#2 nationally in efficiency) down. Illinois has just 8 losses on the season but their record could be better as half of those setbacks (4) came in OT. They are the better team almost across the board and have the talent to win the National Championship. Iowa has 1 great player and a bunch of solid role players and surprisingly have made it this far. It ends here as Illinois wins and covers.

#38: ASA NHL play on Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 goals +125 vs. San Jose Sharks, 5 pm ET - The Sharks are slumping badly as the pressure of trying to make the post-season for the first time in nearly a decade seems to have weighed heavily on them. San Jose has lost 6 straight games and 9 of the last 11. The Sharks are off an OT loss at St Louis but the 5 losses before that were all by a multi-goal margin and we love the value of the puck line here. Columbus has revenge from a 5-2 loss at San Jose in early January. Also, the Blue Jackets enter this game off a loss after having won 20 of 27 games. The Jackets last 13 wins on home ice included 11 victories by a multi-goal margin. Columbus gets back on track after the road loss at Montreal. The last 3 times that the Blue Jackets entered a game off a loss they have gone a perfect 3-0. The way the Sharks are trending we look for that run to reach 4 in a row and look for the win to be a big margin also!

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -10.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - This line opened with the Blazers -10 and despite more money and bets coming in on Dallas the line has ticked up which is a solid indicator for us to be on Portland. The Blazers have all the incentives in the world to keep playing hard as they sit 9th in the Western Conference but could move up to 7th or 8th with a solid finish to the season. Dallas has nothing to play for other than a better draft position by tanking down the stretch. Portland has won 5 of their last six games with three of those coming by 28 or more points. They put up 134 and 130 in their last two games against similar teams to the Mavs in the Bucks and Nets. The Mavericks are 2-14 SU in their last sixteen games and have the 5th worst Net rating over the last 15 games at minus -12.1. In comparison, the Blazers have the 4th best Net rating over their last 5-games. One thing we know for sure is that the Blazers will show up and play hard tonight. We’d be surprised if Dallas does the same. Bet the home team minus the points in this one.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -8.5 over Alabama, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Bama comes in off an impressive 90-65 win over Texas Tech which has them a bit overvalued in our opinion. This line opened with Michigan favored by 10.5 and has dropped to 8.5 and 9 with bettors jumping on the Tide after watching them roll last weekend. As of this writing on Thursday, Bama is getting over 60% of the tickets so a popular “what have you done for me lately” type dog. In their win over Tech, the Crimson Tide went crazy from 3 hitting 19 triples on 42 attempts (45%) while the Red Raiders made only 4 three point shots in 25 attempts (16%). That means Bama outscored Tech by 45 points from beyond the arc which is a crazy disparity that led to a blowout. It wasn’t as if they got great shots and Tech didn’t. In fact, the Shot Quality stats only had Bama winning that game by 1 point. Tech simply missed a ton of good shots and Bama made most of theirs. We think they regress dramatically here vs a Michigan D that ranks top 30 in the nation defending the arc. If the Tide don’t hit a bunch of 3’s, they are in trouble here as that’s their only chance to keep this tight in our opinion. They’ll get creamed on the interior here, something Texas Tech couldn’t take advantage of with their best interior player JT Toppin out. Michigan hits almost 62% of their shots inside the arc (2nd nationally) and they pull down 35% of their misses on the offensive glass. Facing a poor rebounding Alabama team that ranks 287th in the defensive boards, Michigan should have plenty of 2nd chance points. What could help even that out would be turnovers as Michigan has struggled with that on the offensive end (164th in offensive turnover rate). However, the Crimson Tide doesn’t even attempt to create turnovers ranking 358th (out of 365) in defensive turnover rate so without that, the Wolverines will have a solid shot volume advantage. Michigan has advantages across the board in this game and they even shoot the 3 better than Alabama (the just don’t take as many). Again, the Tide will shoot a ton of triples and if they even shoot their average (36%), we think Michigan still wins and covers. If they go nuts and hit a high percentage again, then we’re in trouble. Let’s also keep in mind they are still without their best 3 point shooter Holloway who is suspended. This game is eerily similar to last season’s NCAA tourney when Alabama went nuts vs BYU making 25 of 51 triples in a big win and then the next game they ran into a #1 seed Duke and lost by 20 because they hit only 25% from deep. We feel the value is now on Michigan (18-3 vs Quad 1 teams – Bama is 8-7) now that the line has dropped to single digits. Lay it.

#619 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +8 over Arizona, Thursday at 9:45 PM ET - Razorback head coach John Calpari has been a master in the underdog role in the tourney. He’s been a dog 13 times in the Big Dance with a 9-3-1 ATS record and as a dog of 4 points or more his teams are 7-1 ATS. The Razors are playing as well as they have all season with 7 straight wins which is a key factor here. That’s because teams that are on at least a 6 game winning streak and tabbed as underdogs in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 are huge money makers sitting at 41-16 ATS since 2005. That system has been even better as of late with those teams going 23-5 ATS since 2015! Arkansas can score in bunches which will make it tough for Zona to pull away here. The Razorbacks average 90 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 80 points in all but 7 of their 36 games this season. They rank 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency, 15th in eFG%, 10th in 3 point FG%, 1st in offensive turnover rate, and they make 75% of their FT’s. They also have one of the best shot makers in CBB in PG Acuff. All of those offensive numbers make it very tough to beat this team period and especially by margin. The Wildcats have all the pressure in this one as the #1 seed. They’ve been great under head coach Tommy Lloyd early in the dance (8-1 SU in first 2 rounds) but they are 0-3 SU in the Sweet 16 under Lloyd. Arizona has had an easy path to this point (as expected for a #1 seed) beating 16 seed LIU and 9 seed Utah State. In their game vs USU, the Cats won by 12 but had some huge advantages hitting 41% of their triples to just 25% for the Aggies. They also corralled a ridiculous 55% of their missed shots and attempted 39 FTs (made 27) to just 11 attempts (8 made) for USU. Even with that it was still just a 12 point game. The Cats are an impressive 34-2 on the season, but vs high level teams (top 25 KenPom) they’ve rarely been able to win big with only 3 of their 11 games vs those teams decided by more than 10 points (Arkansas is 17th). If the Razors can be at least respectable on the defensive glass, this one should be close throughout. Take the points.

#914 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+115) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The White Sox won only 60 games last season (a 3rd straight dismal season) and are projected by most to again finish at the bottom of the American League this season. Chicago starter Shane Smith was drafted by the Brewers and this will be his first start in Milwaukee. However, he did face the Brewers one time in his rookie season last year and he allowed 10 baserunners in 5 innings and he was very fortunate to only allow 1 earned run. Milwaukee will be honed in on his offerings again here. The Brewers are projected to regress slightly this season but, keep in mind, the Brewers set a franchise record with 97 wins last season. Jacob Misiorowski gets the start here for Milwaukee and the young phenom was fantastic last season plus got post-season experience. He was not only a successful flame-thrower last season, he particularly handcuffed hitters at home. That is going in his favor here as he gets the call in the Brewers home opener. Another edge for Misiorowski here is that the White Sox have never faced him. They do not have a strong lineup and we expect Chicago to struggle for runs here against a phenom they have not faced before. The Brewers bullpen was also one of the better ones in the league last season as well as the year before and they again look strong entering this season. The run line is available at plus money here and we invest in a strong home team supported by big edges in this one. Lay the 1.5 runs Thursday with Milwaukee!

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9:40pm ET - We faded the Rockets successfully in their last game against the Bulls and it paid off nicely with Chicago winning outright as an +8-point dog. Houston hasn’t been great on the road recently with a 2-5 SU record away from home in their last seven. One of those two wins came against the Wizards who are the worst team in the NBA. Minnesota is playing without Anthony Edwards and actually playing well. The ball movement on offense has been much better and everyone is contributing. Minnesota is coming off a win in Boston a few nights ago and are 4-2 SU in their last six games. The Wolves have won 7 of their last ten games at home and have an average margin of victory at home in March of +5.3ppg. These two teams have near identical offensive/defensive efficiency numbers overall on the season, but we are getting the Wolves at home as a dog when clearly they should be the favorite here, even without ANT. Minnesota has been a home dog just 11 times in the last two seasons and they have a +5.5ppg scoring differential in those games. This is a massive game for both teams when it comes to playoff seedings with Minnesota 5th and Houston 6th but just a .5 game back. Bet Minnesota.

#74 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Buffalo Sabres Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 7:30 pm ET - The Sabres are the top team in the Atlantic Division and they had won 33 of 41 games prior to a 6-5 OT loss at Anaheim this past weekend.  Buffalo will surely respond here and they have scored an average of 4 goals in going 12-2 in their last 14 games.  The Bruins, other than one high-scoring loss to Pittsburgh in their last 7 defeats, have scored an average of only 2 goals in the other 6 losses.  We see at least a 4-2 game here in favor of the red-hot Sabres coming off a loss.  Buffalo won the last meeting here 4 to 1 and they again will get the job done on home ice here Wednesday.  Without hesitation we are laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Buffalo at a nice plus money return in this one for a high value top play here.  

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -4.5 at Phoenix Suns, 11pm ET - The Nuggets are as healthy as they’ve been all season and we predict they’ll be a tough out in the West come playoff time. Phoenix is still missing a few key components with Brooks and Williams out and several others listed as day-to-day as we write this. The Suns are 7th in the West, 3.5 games behind the Rockets in the 6th seed but 4.5 games up on the Clippers. Denver sits 4th in the West (key for home court in the 1st round) but barely ahead of the Rockets and tied with the Wolves. Phoenix had lost 5 straight games before beating the Raptors at home 120-98. The Suns shot insanely well at 52% overall and hit 18/40 3-pointers. Denver has won 2 straight games and 3 of their last four, and 5 of their last seven. Four of those wins came against current playoff teams, one of which was against the Spurs in San Antonio. Denver has owned this series with 4 straight wins dating back to the end of last season. One of the Nuggets wins this season was in Phoenix by 18-points. A great indicator of how these teams are currently playing is their efficiency differentials with the Nuggets at +8.3 in their last 5 games, the Suns are -0.4 eDIFF. We will lay the short number with Denver.

#604 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -10.5 over St Joes, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - St Joes NIT run continues with their 3rd straight game on the West Coast. They played @ Colorado State last Wednesday (won by 5), @ California on Sunday (won by 1) and now @ New Mexico just 48 hours later. Tough situational spot for the Hawks. They did win 76-75 @ Cal on Sunday but had to use a lot of energy as they rallied from a 19 point 2nd half deficit. All 5 starters play 30+ minutes in that come from behind win and now play in high altitude which won’t help. Not only did the Bears lead by 19 in the 2nd half, they held a 14 point lead with under 8:00 remaining the game and scored only 5 points in the final 8:17 of that one. Cal also played without one of their best players and 3rd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder John Camden. New Mexico is in a much better situation playing their 3rd straight home game and their first 2 were blowouts. They topped Sam Houston St by 24 (rated almost the same as St Joes per KenPom) and George Washington by 25 (rated 20 spots higher than St Joes). They’ve been able to spread out their minutes nicely with 8 players getting double digit minutes in both wins. They played their game on Sunday without one of their best players (Albury) and still won easily and he should be back for this one. Both teams should a lot of 3’s but the Lobos are much better at hitting those shots and better at defending them. They rank top 50 in the country hitting 36% of their triples while St Joes is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country hitting just 30% (329th). The New Mexico D is top 20 defending the arc as well allowing opponents to make just 30% from deep. The Lobos are also the better rebounding team and they turn the ball over at a lower rate. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively and the Lobos have a huge home court advantage winning 32 of their last 36 at the Pit. 22 of those 32 wins have come by double digits and we expect another here. Lay it with New Mexico on Tuesday.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +8.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - This time of the season it’s very hard to back a bad team like Chicago but we’ll make an exception today given the scheduling circumstances. Houston is coming off a very tough home stretch which saw them play two games against the Lakers, one versus Atlanta and then another, last second win over the Heat. Now they are travelling to Chicago to face a 28-42 SU Bulls team, and they have a massive game on deck in Minnesota on Wednesday. The Bulls meanwhile have been March 19th or last Thursday and could be getting some key pieces back tonight. Chicago is a respectable 17-20 SU on their home court and 12-10 ATS as a home dog with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg which is good enough for a cover in this one. On that note, the Rockets are 11-16 ATS as a road chalk with an average MOV of +4.0ppg. Chicago is 9-5 ATS with 2 or more days of rest this season. In their last game the Bulls were +9.5 at home against a similar Cavs team which finished with a 110-115 score and cover for the home team. We like the situation for the Bulls to hand around in this one.

#42 ASA NHL PLAY ON New York Rangers Puck Line (+1.5 goals -148) over Ottawa Senators, Monday at 7:37 PM ET - Considering the Rangers started rookie Dylan Garand between the pipes yesterday, Igor Shesterkin should be getting the call here in the 2nd game of this B2B for the Rangers. Shesterkin is having a solid season but is coming off a rare tougher start. We look for him to bounce right back here and New York has earned at least a point in the standings in 9 of their last 13 games. The Rangers are 6-4-3 last 13 games and only the 4 regulation losses were defeats by 2+ goals. Ottawa enters this game with all the pressure as they are still within reach of a playoff berth. The Senators also have a huge game with Detroit on deck as it is the Red Wings that the Sens are right below in the chase for a playoff spot. Ottawa has been playing quite well yet only has 3 multi-goal wins in their last 6 games and we like Shesterkin in bounce back mode here and the Rangers will hang tough throughout this one and just might pull off the big upset here. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the home dog Rangers is the play in this one.

Spanish La Liga 2 (Segunda Division) #202082 ASA PLAY ON Castellon Goal Line -1.5 Goals (+100) over Cultural Leonesa, Monday at 3:30 ET - Cultural Leonesa was in the 3rd division last season and they have struggled since being promoted to the 2nd division this season.  They are one of the worst clubs in the league defensively and Castellon will take advantage here on their home pitch.  Castellon is in bounce back mode after some recent losses and will take advantage of this opportunity against a lesser foe so they can get back on track.  Castellon won the prior meeting this season by a 3-1 count and Cultural Leonesa has lost 3 straight matches by a combined margin of 8 to 1.  Blowout alert here and Castellon lost their most recent home match but this followed 3 straight home wins each coming by a 2-0 margin.  We look for another multi-goal victory for the home side (with a big talent advantage) as they roll big Monday on their home pitch. We will lay 1.5 goals with the home team here. 

#816 ASA PLAY ON Virginia +1.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 6:10 PM ET - Vols are off a 20+ point win vs an outmanned Miami OH team on Friday. That’s a signal we watch for in the Big Dance was teams that win by 20 or more in the round of 64 are just 25-44 ATS (36%) in the round of as long at their opponent is not off a 20+ point win. That’s always a solid starting point for us but not an automatic play as we like to dig deeper into the match up and then decide. Not only does that strong system apply, but we don’t like this match up for Tennessee. The Vols are not a great shooting team ranking 156th in eFG% and 184th from beyond the arc hitting 33%. They get many of their points on 2nd chances as they often dominated the offensive glass (#1 in the country). That’s what the did on Friday vs a small Miami team hauling down 43% of their misses which helped lead to more FG attempts for the Vols. Here they face a solid rebounding team who is actually in the top 10 nationally in offensive rebounding as well so that shouldn’t be a huge advantage for Tennessee. The Vols shot lights out yesterday hitting 53% overall and 45% from deep (well above their season averages) vs a sub par Miami D (152nd in defensive efficiency). Big step up here facing a Virginia defense that ranks 16th in efficiency, 5th in eFG% allowed, and 2nd in blocked shot percentage. On offense the Cavs have a solid advantage in eFG%, 3 point FG%, 2 point FG% and FT%. UVA got a bit of a scare yesterday beating Wright State which was actually like when facing a team that cruised from start to finish. This Virginia team doesn’t get talked about much but they only have 2 losses since January 27th, both vs Duke and in the ACC tourney they went to the wire with the Blue Devils winning by 4. Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes picked up a spread win Friday, however historically he is one of the worst NCAA tourney ATS coach ever with a 24-38 ATS record. We’ll fade him here and take UVA plus the points.

#818 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -7.5 over Miami FL, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET - We’re getting a huge edge in coaching experience here which is always big in the NCAA tourney. Purdue coach Matt Painter has been a head coach for 22 years with Southern Illinois and Purdue and he has 25 NCAA tourney wins. He’s been fantastic in the round of 64 and round of 32 with a 23-7 ATS record which is the best all time for coaches with at least 20 NCAA games under their belt. Miami’s coach is Jai Lucus who is in his first year as a head coach and has 1 NCAA win which was Friday vs Missouri. The Canes won that game 80-66 but that final score did not tell the whole story. The game was much closer than that. Neither team led by more than 10 until Miami took a 12 point lead with 1:30 left in the game. They led by only 5 points with less than 3:00 remaining. Mizzou shot just 35% for the game (Miami hit 43%) and the Canes, who normally shoot 35% from deep, hit 46% of their triples. One concern in this game is Miami is not a good FT shooting team at 68% (321st nationally) and they made only 12 of 21 from the charity stripe on Friday. That can be a killer in the NCAA tourney, especially when playing a better team and needing to keep up on the scoreboard. Purdue is the highest rated team the Canes have played since November when they lost by double digits vs Florida. They avoided Duke all together in ACC play this year and when facing the 2nd highest rated team in the league, Virginia, they lost both games. On Sunday they face a red hot and extremely veteran Purdue team. The Boilers seemed to sleep walk through the regular season at times but once tourney time hit, they have been locked in. In the Big 10 tourney they beat 3 NCAA tourney teams in a row topping Nebraska by 14, UCLA by 7, and Michigan by 8, all rated higher than this Miami team per KenPom. The offense has been humming putting up 1.22, 1.22, and 1.28 PPP in those 3 games vs 3 of the best defensive teams in the country. In their NCAA opener they put up 104 points on 1.54 PPP vs Queens and were able to spread their minutes out with only 1 starter logging more than 25 minutes. They now rank as the #1 offense in the country (efficiency) and they are scorching from deep making almost 39% on the season (12th in the nation). The Canes defensive weakness is guarding the arc ranking 274th in the country. Purdue’s offense has been rolling but their defense has been locked in as well. After allowing 97 points to Wisconsin in their season finale, coach Painter had a “heart to heart” with his team and they have since allowed 67 PPG their last 5 with 3 of those coming vs high level offensive teams. Their big 3 seniors (Smith, Loyer, and Kaufmann-Renn) have combined to play in 34 NCAA tourney games and they are locked in right now. Let’s lay it with Purdue.

#786 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -11 over High Point, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET - High Point upset Wisconsin on Thursday as a double digit underdog (+10.5). Historically, teams that pull that off in the round of 64 are auto fades in the round of 32. In fact, since 2005 those teams are just 4-20 SU and only 8-16 ATS in their 2nd round game. On top of that, if those teams receive more than 50% of the bets in the round of 32 (tickets) they are just 4-13 ATS so we’ll keep an eye on that heading into Saturday night. High Point was a bit fortunate to come away with that win over the Badgers. They led for only 6% of the time and trailed by 8 with 5:00 minutes remaining and their win probability at that point per KenPom was just 2.9%. The Panthers also won the battle on the offensive glass grabbing 30% of their miss while Wisconsin pulled down only 19%. That was an unexpected stat as High Point isn’t great on the offensive boards but they had the benefit of Wisconsin’s best big man and rebounder, Nolan Winter, on a minutes limit returning from an ankle injury for the first time since March 4th. The Panthers had A LOT of things go right down the stretch to win that game. Arkansas rolled over a solid mid major Hawaii team (24-9 record) winning by 19 in a game the Rainbows never led. The Razors match up very well with High Point as the Panthers pressure defense (#5 in opponent turnover rate) won’t cut it here as Arkansas has a great back court and ranks #1 in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. Arky is a high level offense ranked 4th nationally in efficiency and they defend the 3 well allowing opponents to shoot 31%. They’ll have the best player on the floor (Acuff) and both teams play fast (top 45 in tempo) giving the better team a solid chance to widen the margin. Arkansas rolls.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +2 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This is a great scenario to back the Heat on the road in what we expect to be a win by a comfortable margin. Houston played last night and beat the Hawks at home. That win came after a pair of losses at home to the Lakers, who coincidentally just beat this Heat team in Miami. Not only is Houston playing the 2nd night of a back to back, but they are also playing their 4th games in six days. When playing without rest the Rockets have a 5-6 ATS record this season and a negative scoring differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston is one of the worst home favorites this season at 13-19 ATS, Miami as a road dog is 14-11 ATS. Miami is nearly back to full strength with Herro and Powell back in the lineup and are desperate to move up to the 6th seed or better in the East to avoid the play-in scenario. The Heat have lost 3-straight including the other night when they lost by 8-points to the Lakers who made 34/45 free throws compared to the Heat's 18/22. Houston allows the 25th most points off turnovers this season, ranks 22nd in opponents 2nd chance points and are average or 15th in fast break points allowed. Miami is the fastest paced team in the league and rank top 7 offensively in points off turnovers, 2nd chance points and transition scoring. These two teams recently met in Miami with the Heat winning by 10-points, 115-105. We expect a similar margin of victory in this game by the Heat in Houston.

#787 ASA PLAY ON Texas +6.5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - This Texas team is dangerous right now. They’ve topped NC State and BYU so far in the Dance and really dominated both games. They beat the Wolfpack by 2 but dominated the game leading for 88% of the minutes. In last night’s 79-71 win over BYU they led for 99% of the game with the Cougars leading for a grand total of 45 seconds. Gonzaga struggled a bit with Kennesaw State on Thursday winning by 9 as a 20 point favorite with their largest lead of the game being 14 points. We think the Zags are absolutely beatable as they’ve had a number of tight games down the stretch with 4 of their last 7 wins coming by single digits vs mainly not great competition. While Texas was facing high level opponents (15th strength of schedule), the Zags have only faced 2 teams rated in the top 100 since mid December (Santa Clara & St Mary’s) and both of those teams have already been ousted for the NCAA tourney. The Bulldogs are overseeded in our opinion and since February 1st they are just the 28th best team in the country per Torvik analytics (Texas is 40th). The Longhorns are a dangerous dog because they have a high level offense. They rank 18th in offensive efficiency, 27th in FG% and put up 83 PPG. The Horns also get to the FT line at the 3rd highest rate in the country and they make 75% as a team while Gonzaga is 276th highest rate. Texas is 10-5 ATS as a dog and we think they have a shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over Cal Baptist, Friday at 9:45 PM ET - We love this spot for KU. They are coming off an embarrassing 22 point loss vs Houston in the Big 12 tourney which usually sets up nicely in the Big Dance. Teams off 20+ point losses in their most recent game are an impressive 28-14 ATS (67%) in their opening NCAA tourney game. The Jayhawks should be highly motivated here. This is a terrible match up for Cal Baptist who won the WAC. They are a very small team ranking 312th in average height facing a Kansas team who is 24th in average height and should destroy them on the boards. The Lancers take very few 3 point shots (328th in percentage of shots from deep) and have zero shot to score a bunch of points inside the paint vs the Jayhawks who are 6th in the country in blocked shot percentage. CB is not a great shooting team sitting outside the top 300 in eFG%. Their best player is 5’10 Dominique Daniels who will have a hard time outside vs KU’s lengthy and good defensive guards and if he gets to the rim, his shots have a good chance of getting swatted. They rely on a lot of 1 on 1 offense as they rank 361st (out of 365) in assists per FG made and that won’t work vs KU. They also turn the ball over at a high rate of 18%. Defensively the Lancers have solid numbers on the season but they’ve played mainly low tier offensive teams (average rank 267th offensive efficiency). They faced 3 power conference teams this season, all from the Big 12, allowing 91 points vs BYU (lost by 30), 91 points vs a bad Utah team, and 78 points vs Colorado. KU will have, by far, the best player on the court in potential #1 pick in the draft (Peterson) and we think they roll in this one.

#67 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over Chicago Blackhawks, Friday at 8:30 pm ET - The Avalanche are the top team in the Central Division while the Blackhawks are dead last.  Chicago has lost 9 of 12 home games since mid-January.  The Avalanche are in the perfect bounce back spot here as they have lost 3 straight games and the only time they lost 4 straight games this season was way back in the opening month of the season in October.  9 of the last 11 road wins that Colorado has were all victories by a multi-goal margin.  The Blackhawks have scored a total of only 1 goal in their two meetings with the Avalanche this season and we look for Colorado to explode in terms of goal-scoring here in this strong situation on a 3-game losing streak.  In other words, that should translate to a road rout in this one.  The last two times that the Avs entered a road game coming off a loss they have won the 2 games by a combined score of 10 to 1.  Without hesitation we are laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Colorado at a very reasonable price in this one for a high value play here.  

#764 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -24.5 over Tennessee State, Friday at 2:50 PM ET - Tennessee State faced the 325th most difficult schedule this season and now they take a huge jump up vs Iowa State who sits at 6th nationally per KenPom. The Tigers faced one top 50 team all season and lost that game by 29 points vs Tennessee and turned the ball over at a 28% rate in that game. That’s not idea vs ISU. The most important thing an opposing offense better be able to do vs this high level ISU defense (4th nationally in efficiency) is protect the ball. The Cyclones create turnovers at a 22% rate on the season (4th most in the country) which leads to extra possessions. TSU ranks just 170th in offensive turnover rate despite facing only 1 team all season long ranked in the top 50 in defensive turnover rate. That’s not a good recipe for success for the Tigers in this game. Offensively the Clones have a huge advantage ranking top 30 in both FG% and 3 point FG% despite facing a slate of defenses with an average rank of 20th nationally (efficiency). TSU ranks 140th in FG% and 237th in 3 point FG% and that was facing an average defensive rank of 250th. The Tigers take very few 3’s (344th in percentage of 3 point shots taken) and they don’t shoot them well. If an underdog can hit 3’s at a high rate, upsets can happen but that doesn’t apply here. For the season, Iowa State has an average adjusted PPP of +32 points per 100 possessions while TSU has a negative value in that metric. The Cyclones have shown they have no problem pounding lower level opponents winning all 8 of their games vs non-top 150 opponents by at least 25 points. Let’s lay it.

#742 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -7.5 over Akron, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Akron is one of the popular, public dogs sitting with almost 70% of the ticket as of this writing on Thursday. However, despite that this line hasn’t moved in inch with Tech still favored by -7.5 which was also the opener. We like the fact that the Red Raiders are coming in off 3 straight losses (extra focus & motivation) and their last lost was in blowout fashion getting rocked by Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney by 22 points. This situation is always something we look for in the round of 64 as teams off 20+ losses are 28-14 ATS in their round 1 tourney game back to 2005. Akron is solid, however they don’t have a single win over a Quad 1 or 2 team (0-4 record). The Zips are one of the smallest teams in the country (350th in average height) which is great news for Tech who has struggled on the defensive boards at times vs big, physical teams. That shouldn’t be an issue here. Many are discounted this Red Raider team because they lost key starter JT Toppin back in mid February. Since losing Toppin, this team went to Iowa State and won and they still rank as the 14th best team in the country and 5th best offense per Torvik analytic since Feb 18th (the day after Toppin was injured). Both teams shoot a bunch of 3’s but Tech as the advantage ranking 4th best 3 point shooting team in the country hitting almost 40% and facing an Akron D that ranks 252nd. The Akron D also allows teams to take 3’s (303rd in opponent shot attempt percentage from 3) which is a good strategy vs Texas Tech. The Zips are also a good 3 point shooting team (14th) but the Raiders defend the arc at a much higher level (45th) while allowing opponents to shoot only 35% of their attempts from deep (49th). Akron faced 1 power conference team this season and lost by 18 vs Purdue. This line is short per our power ratings and we’ll grab Texas Tech.