ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 9 pm ET - We were very close to laying -10.5 points with the Suns the other night in Sacramento but didn’t, tonight we’ll lay that same number at home with Phoenix over Chicago. The Bulls and Kings are playing similar right now as they both are tanking for a better draft position. Chicago is 1-12 SU in their last 13 games with the largest average loss margin over that course of games of minus -13.5 ppg. The Bulls have a net rating of -13.3 over that same stretch, only the Nets have been worse. Phoenix is coming off an 11-point win in Sacramento a few nights ago and have now won 2 straight. Devon Booker is back on the floor and his 24.6 ppg which had been missing from the Suns lineup in recent weeks. Phoenix is 20-12 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +3.2 ppg. Chicago has struggled away from home with a 9-19 SU record and an average MOV of minus -6.1ppg. Given the circumstances with the Suns fighting for a better playoff position and the Bulls looking to move up in the draft, we will lay the points with Phoenix.

#805 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 6 PM ET - JMU topped Louisiana 87-72 in the first round of the Sun Belt tourney in Pensacola, Florida while USM had a bye. We think that gives James Madison a solid advantage having played a game at this venue just 24 hours ago. As we move through the tourney, fatigue will be a factor for those that have had to play more games, however in this situation, that shouldn’t be an issue for the Dukes. On top of that, they spread their minutes out nicely yesterday with 9 players playing 10+ minutes. These 2 met on January 31st @ Southern Miss with the Golden Eagles coming out with a 72-65 win. However, JMU played that game without leading scorer McBride (16 PPG) who is also one of their best rebounders and shoots over 40% from deep. He’s back here and coming off a 20 point, 8 rebound performance in yesterday’s win vs Louisiana. These 2 both finished with 9-9 records in the Sun Belt but JMU had the better stats almost across the board and played the more difficult schedule. In conference play, the Dukes had the better PPG margin, better FG% both offensively and defensively, better 3 point FG% both offensively and defensively, better assist to turnover ratio, and a better rebound margin. They should have a decided edge from beyond the arc where they are top 100 in offensive and defensive 3 point FG% while USM is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (353rd) and they haven’t been good defending the arc (270th nationally & 10th in the Sun Belt). This number is short in our opinion and we like James Madison to pick up their 2nd win in 2 days.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Charlotte Hornets, 7:30pm ET - These two teams had fantastic February’s with the Celtics going 9-2 SU, the Hornets went 8-3. Boston had the 3rd best Net rating in the league at +12.3, the Hornets ranked 6th at +8.9. But Charlotte’s February isn’t as impressive when you look at their schedule. They’ve currently won 5 straight games, none against a team with a winning record. In the month of February, they have exactly 1 win over a team that currently has an above .500 record. Boston meanwhile is beating quality teams in this current stretch and have now vaulted to the odds-on favorites to win the East. In the month of February, the C’s have beaten 6 teams currently in the playoff hunt. Boston is 6-1 SU at home in their last seven games and all but one of those wins came by double-digits. The Celtics are winning at home by an average of +7.8ppg, Charlotte is a respectable 17-15 SU away from home but winning in Boston is a big ask. The Celtics have won 6 straight against Charlotte and 9 of the last ten meetings. Boston is clearly the better team with an efficiency differential of +8.0 (2nd in the NBA) compared to the Hornets +3.1 eDIFF which ranks 10th. Charlotte won’t sneak up on the Celtics here, lay the points with Boston.

#703 ASA PLAY ON UAB -1 over Charlotte, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - With UAB sitting as a 1 point favorite (opening number on Tuesday night) home court advantage for Charlotte is factored in as we have the Blazers favored by around 5 points on a neutral court. Well you can throw out home court advantage when dealing with UAB which gives us some solid value here. Why? Because the Blazers are a perfect 8-0 in AAC road games and they are 1-7 at home in conference games. A very rare twist where a team is simply better on the road than they are at home and by a fairly wide margin. They have road wins @ South Florida and @ Tulsa, the 2 highest rated teams in the AAC (both top 56 nationally). Charlotte already has 3 home losses in conference play and most of their wins at home have come vs lower tier AAC teams. The one impressive win they have at home was in early January vs Wichita State and that game went to double OT. These 2 are tied with a 9-7 league record but Charlotte has played the 12th strength of schedule in the AAC (out of 13 teams) and UAB has played the 2nd most difficult slate. Despite the same record, the Blazers are the much better team ranked nearly 60 spots higher than Charlotte. One good comparison is how these teams have done vs higher level competition. UAB is 3-3 on the season vs Quad 1 and 2 teams (roughly top 135 teams) while Charlotte is 0-8 vs those teams. If we push it out to include Quad 3 teams, UAB is 9-9 and Charlotte is 4-12. Most of the 49ers wins have come vs poor teams. The Niners might also be short handed here as 2nd leading scorer, Dezayne Mingo (12 PPP & 38% three point shooter) injured his ankle 2 games ago and has not returned. We like UAB to get another road win tonight.

#708 ASA PLAY ON SMU -1 over Miami FL, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Huge home finale for SMU who sits right near the bubble of the NCAA tourney with a 19-10 record. The bracket matrix currently has the Mustangs as a consensus 11 seed but a loss here and then @ FSU on Saturday could drop them completely out. They are 15-2 at home this season and we’re catching them in a good spot coming off 2 losses on their recent swing to the West Coast @ Cal and @ Stanford. That ups the importance of this home tilt. The Canes come into this game having won 6 of their last 7 games, however 5 of those 6 wins have come vs teams that are currently .500 or worse in ACC play. That typifies Miami’s season as they’ve played the easiest overall schedule in the conference and the easiest schedule in league play. They have a very solid 23-6 record and unlike SMU, are safely in the Big Dance, however they are just 2-4 vs teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 40 (SMU is currently 39th). Miami does have 7 road wins but 6 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 70 and all of the ACC road wins have come vs teams in the lower tier of the conference except NC State. That was a 1 point win a game the Canes led for only 25% of the time. SMU has the better offensive efficiency, better eFG%, better 3 point FG%, better FT%, and they turn the ball over at a lower rate. They should have a solid edge from beyond the arc as the Miami defense ranks 15th in the ACC defending the 3 and on offense the Canes are 16th in 3 point FG% (SMU is 1st at 41%). The Hurricanes have a big game on deck hosting Louisville and this is a much more important game for the host. Let’s take SMU minus this small number.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -12.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:30pm ET - The 15 win Nets have a ton to ‘not’ play for as they tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. Miami is fighting for their playoff lives, currently sitting 8th but only 1.5 games behind the Sixers for the 6th spot. Remember, the top 6 teams are safe from the play in games so it’s a big advantage to land 6 or better. Miami had won 3 straight and was looking good before a pair of ugly losses to the Bucks and 76ers – both on the road. They then beat the Rockets on Saturday 115-105 at home. In late February the Heat were favored by -12.5 points against a similar Grizzlies team and Miami won that game by 16-points. Brooklyn has lost 8 straight games and none of the four road losses were close as they lost in Boston by 37, in Atlanta by 11, at OKC by 19 and at Cleveland by 18. Brooklyn is the worst shooting team in the NBA at 44.6% and will have a difficult time scoring here against the 7th best FG% defense in the league. Miami isn’t a great shooting team this season ranking 19th in team FG% overall and 12th in 3PT% but they’ll face a Nets D that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and allow opponents to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts. This one will get ugly early and the Heat’s transition game will turn it into a blowout.

#606 ASA PLAY ON Georgia +2 over Alabama, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Crimson Tide. They are coming off a revenge, miracle win @ Tennessee on Saturday, now on the road again 72 hours later, and they host arch rival Auburn next. In their game on Saturday, Bama trailed by 14 in the 2nd half and came back and took their first lead of the entire game with 24 seconds left 71-69 which was also the final score. They continue to struggle on the defensive glass allowing the Vols to grab a ridiculous 54% of their misses and that could be a problem here vs UGA who is a top 50 offensive rebounding team. In their win, Tennessee shot terribly hitting only 38% for the game and just 22% from deep and still led for all but 24 seconds. Tide head coach Oats called it their best SEC win of the season and said the comeback win was “emotionally taxing” on his team. Tonight they face a Georgia team (20-9 record) is currently slated as a 9 seed in most bracket projections, but aren’t guaranteed to make the Dance depending what happens over the next week plus. A win here in their home finale locks the Dogs into the NCAA tourney. UGA should absolutely be the fresher team in this game playing their 2nd straight home game after rolling over South Carolina by 19 points on Saturday with 9 players playing double digit minutes. Bama’s leading scorer Philbin (21 PPG & 5 assists per game) is banged up and healthy. He sat out vs Mississippi State last week but came back and played on Saturday. Oats said Philbin is not 100% and they need to be careful with him down the stretch as he’s much more important come tourney time. They come into this game having won 8 straight but they’ve been a bit fortunate with half of those wins coming by 4 points or less or in OT. We think Bama’s run ends tonight and we’ll grab the points with Georgia.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Eastern Washington -3.5 over Idaho, Monday at 9 PM ET - Eastern Washington has been very good to us this month and we’re taking them again in their home finale (and season finale) tonight. The Eagles remain red hot winning 8 in a row and covering 9 straight. After starting the Big Sky season with a 3-6 record, they are now 11-6, in 2nd place, and have a shot to win the conference if Portland State slips up tonight. They’ve won 6 straight by double digits and have some revenge involved after losing @ Idaho way back in early January. That was a 3 point Idaho win and the Vandals shot better overall, better from 3, and made 4 more FT’s yet the game was up in the air in the final minute of play. Since February 1st, EWU is by far the best team in the Big Sky (per Torvik metrics) ranking 56th nationally during that stretch with the next best conference team sitting at 116th. That’s Northern Colorado who the Eagles just beat here by double digits last week (we were on EWU as a top play in that one). Eastern Washington is #1 in conference play in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding, 3 point FG%, and 3 point FG% defense. That will be a problem for Idaho’s 3 point heavy offensive attack (24th nationally in percentage of shots taken from beyond the arc) as EWU’s defense has shut conference teams down from deep allowing them to make just 31%. In the first meeting, the Vandals hit 11 of 29 from 3 point land (38%) yet still only won by 3. We don’t see them being nearly that successful in this one. While EWU is playing for a possible conference title, the best Idaho can do with a win here is get to 9-9 in Big Sky play, but win or lose, they are locked into 7th place. A win could move them into a tie with Northern Colorado but they lost both games vs the Bears to NC would win the tie-breaker. We have this line power rated closer to 5.5 points so we’ll take the value as Eastern Washington just keeps rolling.

#850 ASA PLAY ON Marquette -3.5 over DePaul, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Golden Eagles are a dangerous team right now as they continue to improve after a poor start to the season. Their power rating on the season per Bart Torvik analytics is around 85th in the nation but during the month of February they are 50th and the 5th best in the Big East behind UConn, St Johns, Villanova, and Providence. They are coming off an impressive 16 point win @ Georgetown as a 2 point dog. That win was on Tuesday giving Marquette an extra day as DePaul was on the road Wednesday night @ Creighton. The Blue Demons came up with a huge come from behind win over the Blue Jays 72-71. It was a highly unlikely win as DePaul overcame an 11 point 2nd half deficit and never led by more than 2 points the entire game. They shot well above their season averages hitting 50% overall (they average 44% on the season) and 53% from deep (they average 33% for the season). Even shooting lights out, the Blue Demons led for only 5% of their game @ Creighton and pulled out a miracle win. It was just their 2nd Big East road win with 7 losses on the road in conference play. This will be their 3rd road game in their last 4 and 6th road game since January 28th (just 3 home games during that stretch). DePaul currently sits right around 100th in the nation per Torvik and while Marquette is surging, the Demons are not. Over the last month they rank 120th in the country and last in the Big East during that span along with Xavier. Marquette has won 4 of their last 6 home games with their only losses during that time coming by 6 points vs St John’s (#2 team in the BE) and by 3 points vs Villanova (#3 team in the Big East). Their last 2 home games were blowout wins over Creighton (by 24 points) and over Butler (by 15 points) who both rank well above this DePaul team that actually rates as the worst team in the Big East per KenPom and Torvik. In their first meeting @ DePaul, the Demons won by 5 in a game where Marquette made only 38% of their FT’s and led for more than 50% of the game. The Golden Eagles have dominated DePaul at home winning 8 of the last 9 and 30 of the last 35 here in Milwaukee. We like Marquette to cover this one rather easily.

#846 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - This is just a monumental home game for Indiana. They sit squarely on the NCAA bubble and with their last 2 games coming vs Minnesota and Ohio State, this is their final shot at a big time regular season win. It’s a very solid situational spot as well as the Hoosiers catch MSU off a huge road win over Purdue as a 7 point dog. It was a physical, down to the wire game (2 point win for MSU) in which neither team led by more than 8 points. Tough spot on the road again for Sparty coming off that win and facing a team they already smoked at home earlier this year (81-60 Spartan win in mid January). On the other hand, we’re getting Indiana coming off a home loss vs Northwestern as an 8 point favorite, in a game they dominated for nearly it’s entirety. IU led for 87% of the game and held a 13 point 2nd half lead. With less than 7:00 minutes remaining in the game, the Hoosiers had an 83% chance of winning based on probabilities. After a blown game like that, we expect them to bounce back at home and play very well on Sunday. Offensively, Indiana is the better shooting team, better from beyond the arc, they turn the ball over at a lower rate, and make 78% of their FT’s. Against other upper tier Big 10 teams at Assembly Hall, IU topped Purdue and Wisconsin, and lost a tight game vs Nebraska. If they can be at least respectable on the glass, Indiana should have a solid shot to win this game outright. It’s a much bigger game for the home team and we’ll grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -2.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 pm ET - This is a big game today between two teams that have a strong dislike for each other. Both teams currently stand 37-23 SU on the season and are fighting for the 4th seed in the Western Conference which would mean home court in the 1st round of the playoffs. Denver has won all 3 meetings this season and we don’t see that trend changing here. The Nuggets are a tough loss a couple nights ago in OKC and look to rebound here. They have been exceptional off a loss this season with a 17-5 SU record and an average margin of victory in those games of +7.6ppg. That’s a reoccurring theme with the Nuggets who are 63-26 SU off a loss since 2023. Minnesota has won 5 of their last six games but they came against Portland twice, the Clippers without Leonard, Dallas and Atlanta and 3 of those wins were at home. Despite the 4-1 record in their last five games, the Nuggets have the better efficiency differential of 10.8 compared to the Wolves 3.2. These two teams have a lot of similarities statistically with the exception being 3PT defense. The Nuggets are the best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 39.3%, the Wolves rank 17th in 3PT% defense allowing 36%. Minnesota shoots it well themselves from Downtown, but the Nugs rank 6th in 3PT% defense. Normally the Wolves enjoy a rebounding advantage but not in this game as Denver’s rebound percentage on the season is better than Minnesota’s. Given the circumstances we like Denver with this short number of -2.5

#800 ASA PLAY ON Utah St -10.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We’re getting the best team in the Mountain West and one of the best teams in the country (25th per KenPom) at home and off back to back losses. Utah State lost @ Nevada last Saturday by 3 points (blew an 8 point lead with under 7:00 left in the game) and then lost @ San Diego State on Wednesday. That loss pulled the Aztecs into a tie with Utah State for 1st place in the MWC. The Aggies played poorly on both ends of the court in that loss and we expect a big bounce back effort at home on Saturday. USU shot just 40% overall (they average 51% on the season) and 30% from beyond the arc (they average 37% this year). Grand Canyon is off a revenge win and cover over UNLV on Wednesday (we were on GC) and now they take the road where they struggle offensively. The Antelopes rank just 8th in the MWC (out of 12 teams) in offensive efficiency and they are a bad 3 point shooting team (326th nationally at just under 30%). Away from home their FG% is just 44% and from beyond the arc they make just 28% facing a USU D that allows opponents just 38% overall at home and 67 PPG. GC is solid defensively, but we’re not sure they can keep up on offense in this one. The Aggies rank to 10 in the nation in FG% and they are #1 in the MWC in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and offensive rebounding. They are 12-1 at home this season and 9 of those wins have come by double digits. Not only does Utah St have motivation coming off 2 losses and playing to stay in 1st place, they lost @ Grand Canyon in January as a 5.5 point favorite. The below average shooting Antelopes hit 51% of their shots in that game while the top 10 offense USU made only 35%. Those numbers flop here and we get a double digit win from Utah State.

#762 ASA PLAY ON Cal State Fullerton +3.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We faded Hawaii on Thursday night @ UC Davis and picked up a loss as the Rainbows (-2) won by 4 points. In that game UH hit 51% of their shots overall and 45% from beyond the arc well above their season averages. Now they are on the 2nd leg of their trip to the mainland less than 48 hours after topping UCD. We mentioned in that analysis that Hawaii has had a brutal travel schedule since January 1st making 5 trips to California, all 2 game road trips. They’ve traveled 25,000 miles in the last 2 months alone. They’ve split the first 4 road trips going 1-1 in each and we think they’ll split again. While the Rainbows are playing less then 48 hours after their big road win @ UC Davis, CS Fullerton has had a full week off. The Titans have been playing very well winning 7 of their last 9 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ UC Irvine and @ UC Santa Barbara, 2 of the top 4 rated teams in the Big West. Fullerton is 6-2 at home in conference play but their 2 losses were in December and early January and they’ve won 5 in a row here. They play at a very fast pace (5th in the country) and create turnovers at a high rated (1st in the Big West). That’s a bad match up for this Hawaii team who ranks 323rd in offensive turnover percentage. On the other end the Titans offense turns the ball over at the lowest rate in the league so the turnover situation should heavily favor CSF. They are also the better 3 point shooting team and better FT shooting team in conference play. Prior to Thursday night, Hawaii hadn’t won a road game vs a team in the top 200 per KenPom. Now they face a rested CS Fullerton team that has covered 6 of their last 7 home games. Rough spot for Hawaii to be a road favorite and we’ll grab the points.

#888 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -4.5 over Southern Miss, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - South Alabama is in a 4 way tie for first place in the Sun Belt and this is the final night for conference games before the tournament starts. All of the Sun Belt teams are playing on Friday and everything will be decided by the end of the night. There are 3 teams tied for 2nd place and there is a remote chance that if things fall correctly we could have a 7 way tie for first place by night’s end! South Alabama just needs to focus on winning this game and then they tie for first place at worst and let the tie breakers fall into place for the conference tournament. These 2 met on February 14th and the Jags won @ USM 84-78. There was one key outlier from the Southern Miss offense in that game. They are a really poor 3-point shooting team ranking dead last in the Sun Belt and 357th nationally hitting only 29% of their triples. In that game, they made 40% of their 3’s and still lost at home by 6. The Golden Eagles will have to shoot lights out from deep to have a chance to keep this close. That’s because the South Alabama defense packs it in and forces teams to shoot 3’s. In fact, almost 65% of opponent’s shots come from beyond the arc vs the Jaguar defense which is BY FAR the most in the country. If you can’t make 3’s, it’s really tough to beat this team and as bad as Southern Miss overall from deep, on the road they make only 27% of their 3’s. Another key in this game will be USM’s inability to take care of the ball. They are 310th in the nation turning the ball over on 19% of their possessions and South Alabama is top 100 at creating turnovers. In the first meeting, the Eagles had a turnover rate of 28% which is ridiculously high. If they do that again in this game and shoot closer to their average from beyond the arc (rather than hitting 40%) this should be an easy cover for South Alabama. The Jags are 10-3 at home this season and USM is 3-11 on the road. The Eagles 2 Sun Belt road wins came vs UL Monroe and Louisiana, the 2 worst teams in the conference both ranked outside the top 300 nationally. If USM couldn’t win at home vs South Alabama shooting way above their 3 point FG% average, we don’t see them hanging tight in this game. We’ll lay it.

#828 ASA PLAY ON UC Davis +1.5 over Hawaii, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We were on Hawaii -4.5 last Saturday at home vs UC Santa Barbara and while they came out with a 3 point win, they missed the cover. We’re going to fade them tonight as they are on the road where they have a 4-5 record on the season. On top of that, this is the FIFTH time since January 1st the Rainbows have made the trip to the mainland for a 2 game road trip. That’s a really tough making a 5,000 mile round trip to California (25.000 total flight miles) in just 2 months. The Bows have split each of their first 4 trips here and all 4 of their wins have come vs the 4 worst teams in the Big West all ranked below 200 per KenPom. When they’ve faced teams in the top half of the conference on the road, they’ve lost. Tonight they face a solid UC Davis team that is 17-11 overall and 10-7 in Big West play sitting 1 game behind Hawaii for 2nd place in the conference. The Aggies are 12-3 overall at home their home losses coming by 1, 2, and 6 points. In Big West play, UC Davis has already topped some of the best teams in the league here including UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, and CS Northridge and we expect they will win this one as well. In their first meeting @ Hawaii the Rainbows won a tight game 75-69 and looking at the stats you’d think they’ve have had a much easier time. UH shot 54% overall and 44% from 3 and UCD hit only 44% overall and 25% from beyond the arc. The key to keeping that close despite not shooting very well was UCD created turnovers on 21% of Hawaii’s possessions giving them a number of extra opportunities. That should change here as UC Davis ranks 29th nationally creating turnovers while the Rainbow offense continues to turn the ball over a lot (323rd in the country). The Aggie offense should play much better here as their numbers have been very good ranking 4th in the Big West in offensive efficiency, 2nd in 3 point FG% and they get to the FT line a lot (2nd most in the conference and shoot 75%). This is the Aggies home finale so they’ll be fully focused on getting a win to move into a tie for 2nd place. They are 9-3 ATS at home this season and Hawaii is 3-5 ATS in Big West road games. Wrong team favored here (Hawaii opened -2 if it holds) and we like UC Davis on Thursday night.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Eastern Washington +1.5 over Northern Colorado, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We took Eastern Washington last Saturday at a 6 point dog @ 1st place Portland State and they dominated with a 12 point outright win. That win pushed the Eagles to a 9-6 record and into 2nd place and dropped Portland State to 12-3 in the league. EWU continues to be massively undervalued as they have been the best team in the Big Sky since February 1st per Bart Torvik analytics and the 60th best team in the entire country over that span. The Eagles are 6-0 since the start of the month (they’ve covered 7 in a row) and what makes that record even more impressive is 4 of those wins have come on the road. On top of that, 2 of those road wins came vs the 2 highest rated teams in the conference, Portland State (in 1st place) and Montana State (tied for 2nd with EWU). Their last loss, in late January, came by 3 points vs tonight’s opponent Northern Colorado. In that game, the Eagles actually led for 51% of the game (Northern Colorado led for 34% - tied for 15%) and took 12 fewer FG attempts yet still nearly won. The reason the Bears took 70 shot attempts to just 58 for Eastern Washington was because NC was +7 on the offensive glass and had 8 fewer turnovers. We don’t expect a repeat in those key stats. That’s because EWU is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the Big Sky and Northern Colorado ranks 363rd in the nation (out of 365 teams) at creating turnovers on defense. That means the first match up had 2 key outliers and it was still just a 1 point NC lead with less than 20 seconds left. We’re getting a good line here because Northern Colorado is also on a red hot run winning 7 straight. However, all streaks are not created equal. 5 of their 7 wins have come at home and their 2 road wins during this stretch came @ Sacramento State and @ Idaho State, the 2 worst teams in the league. Prior to that the Bears had lost all 5 of their Big Sky road games. EWU should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc ranking #1 in both 3 point FG% offense and defense in league play. They also make 78% of the FT’s in conference games. The Eagles have played the #1 strength of schedule in the Big Sky yet still sit in 2nd place while Northern Colorado is in 4th place despite facing the 9th most difficult slate in league play. We’ll side with Eastern Washington at home on Thursday as they get their revenge in a big way.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 at Orlando Magic, 7:40 pm ET - The Rockets are off a game last night but that was against the lowly Kings so we’re not as concerned about the back-to-back as we normally would be. The Magic have their own scheduling issues as they are off a West Coast trip and playing on just 1 day rest. Not to mention, the Magic had 3 straight down to the wire games that took a toll physically and emotionally. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games at home but those W’s came against the Bucks, Jazz and Nets. In their last seven games at home against above .500 teams they are just 2-5 SU. Houston is 5-1 SU in their last six road games and they have some very impressive wins on that resume: at Charlotte, OKC and at Detroit. One of those five wins came in late February at Charlotte where they were favored by -4.5 points and the Hornets/Magic grade out similarly so this line isn’t as high as it should be based on that comparison. Houston has done extremely well against the Eastern Conference this season with a 15-5 SU record and an average MOV of +8.1ppg in those contests. Houston has a slightly better Net Rating over their last 10 games than the Magic with their offense being the difference between the two teams. The Rockets are the 10th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.4% and should see plenty of shots go through the bucket against a Magic D that allows 47.7% (23rd). Orlando will have a tough time scoring in this one as they shoot just 46.3% (20th) going up against the long-athletic Rockets who have the 5th best FG% D in the league allowing 45.5% shooting by opponents.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -10 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:30pm ET - These two teams just met the other night with the Hawks winning 119-98 – leading wire-to-wire – in the blowout victory. The line in that game was -13.5 but the oddsmakers have adjusted with the news that Jalen Johnson will be out tonight for Atlanta. The underlying story to this game is the fact that the Hawks won by 21-points despite shooting well below season standards at 39% overall and 24% from the 3-point line. Johnson also played just 5 minutes in the game so it’s not like he had an impact on the recent clash. Atlanta will be better prepared without him here and they go 27-points 7 rebounds and 4 assists from recently acquired Kuminga. Washington has 16 wins on the season and is in tank mode for next year's draft. Washington already has a decent young roster and if Anthony Davis and Trae Young get healthy, along with a top pick in the draft, this could be a solid playoff contender next season. Washington is 5-22 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -12.2ppg. They have lost 9 of their last ten on the road and 7 of those nine losses came by double-digits. Atlanta is fighting for their playoff lives, have a deep enough roster to win this game by double digits without their All-Star Johnson. Lay it.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - The Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla is very good in the 2nd night of a back to back but this is going to be a different animal tonight. Boston is playing their 4th straight road game and the previous three were all ‘big’ games against the Warriors, Lakers and Suns. This will also be their 3rd game in four nights AND they’re playing in altitude in Denver. The other schedule disadvantage for Boston is the fact the Nuggets have been off Sunday and were embarrassed on national TV by the Warriors. Denver is getting a little healthier with the return of Cam Johnson and Christian Braun giving them some much needed depth. Denver is 46-28 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.0ppg. They are exceptional off a loss with a 42-17 SU record since 2024, winning those games by an average of 5.3ppg. Boston has been fantastic on the road this season at 20-10 SU but this is a difficult spot for them. Denver should have an advantage from beyond the arc with the best 3PT% in the NBA at 39.4% going up against a C’s defense that ranks 17th in opponents 3PT% shooting. Denver also has the 8th best 3PT% shooting defense in the NBA which should contain the Celtics 10th rated 3-point shooting. We will lay the points with the home team that is rested and off a loss.

#684 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -1 over George Mason, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met just on February 7th @ George Mason and the Patriot squeaked out an 80-72 win which ended up being their largest lead of the game. It was basically a dead even contest with each leading for about 43% of the game (14% of the time they were tied). That was despite St Joes shooting only 31% from the field (GM shot 41%) and 27% from deep. The Hawks also only went to the FT line 4 times the entire team (made 2) while George Mason made 10 FT’s. Even with those numbers, the game still went to the wire. The 8 point margin was a bit deceiving as it was a 2 point game with under 1:00 minute remaining. The Hawks now get a shot at George Mason at home where they are 11-3 on the season. There are 4 teams in the A10 ranked in the top 100 per KenPom (St Louis, VCU, George Washington, and Dayton) and St Joes is 2-0 at home vs those teams topping GW and Dayton. The Patriots are in a bit of a free fall after starting the conference slate with an 8-1 record, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs this St Joes team. They are 4-4 on the road this season but have lost 3 of their last 4 away from home. Mason’s 4 road wins in A10 play have all come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference (Loyola, LaSalle, Fordham and St Bonnies) and only by an average of 6 PPG. These 2 sit tied in 4th place in the A10 with 9-5 record but St Joes is playing the much better ball winning 9 of their last 12 with their 3 losses all coming by 8 points or less. The Hawks have covered 5 of their last 6 at home and they are 5-2 ATS in A10 play. George Mason is just 2-5 ATS on the road in conference play and we like St Joes at this short number.

#712 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -16 over Maryland, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Terps. First off, they stink on the road with a 1-7 Big 10 record away from home. All but 1 of those losses have come by double digits including losing by 11 @ Rutgers who rates as the worst team in the conference. Their average loss on the road in Big 10 play is by 18 points and now they face one of the best teams in the nation on the road. Despite their 4-12 record in conference play, they’ve actually faced a fairly generous strength of schedule (8th in the Big 10) and faced only 4 games thus far vs the top 5 in the conference (Michigan, Illinois, Michigan St, Purdue, and Nebraska) who all sit in KenPom’s top 11 nationally. They’ve lost all of those games (home or away) by at least 18 points and the average loss in those 4 games is by 27.5 points. The Terps like to shoot the 3 ball (46th nationally in percentage of shots from 3) but they are not good at it (272nd nationally and 15th in the Big 10). Here they face a Nebraska defense that ranks #1 in the conference and 9th in the nation allowing opponents to shoot only 29% from deep. That’s bad news for a Maryland team that already struggles to score on the road averaging just 66 PPG and facing a Husker D that gives up only 60 PPG at home. On the other end, Nebraska also loves to shoot the 3 (8th nationally in percentage of shots from beyond the arc) and they make them at a high rate (1st in the Big 10 in conference games at 38%). The Maryland D struggles big time guarding the arc allowing opponents 37.5% on the season (356th in the nation). The Huskers should get plenty of extra opportunities as well with their defense creating turnovers at a 20% rate (1st in Big 10 play) and Maryland’s offense giving the ball away at an 18% rate (15th in conference play). The Huskers also have a huge edge from the FT line making 79% of their freebies in conference play to just 67% for Maryland. There are 4 teams in the Big 10 that rank outside the top 100 nationally per KenPom (Rutgers, PSU, Maryland, and Oregon). Nebraska has faced 2 of those teams at home winning by 23 vs Penn State and by 35 vs Oregon. We look for another blowout tonight.

#669 ASA PLAY ON USC +6.5 over UCLA, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - We like this spot for the Trojans making the 13-mile trek to the UCLA campus on Tuesday evening. USC is coming off a 1-point home loss vs Oregon over the weekend in a game they led by 6 points with 1:00 minute remaining. It was a game Shot Quality stats (post-game) had USC winning by 11 points. They are catching the Bruins off a massive 1-point home win over Illinois on Saturday. It was a game that Shot Quality stats had UCLA losing by 15 points. They trailed by 23 points at one point and PG Dent was able to go length of the court and deliver the game winning layup as time expired. Definitely an unlikely win. USC head coach Musselman has stated recently he feels his team plays better on the road and we don’t disagree (3-5 Big 10 record at home / 4-4 on the road). Overall, they have an 8-4 record this season in road/neutral games and that includes 4 Big 10 road wins. They are 18-9 on the season and we feel this team could be sitting in a better spot had they been healthy. Their leading scorer Baker-Mazara recently missed 3 games (they lost 2 of those) but is back. 3rd leading scorer Arenas missed the first 18 games of the season but has acclimated himself nicely back into the starting lineup averaging 20 PPG over his last 5. Offensively they do most of their work inside the arc with 69% of their shots in conference play coming from 2 point land. UCLA ranks just 14th in the conference defending inside the 3 point stripe. USC is also a solid offensive rebounding team (5th in the Big 10) and UCLA is a poor defensive rebounding team (17th in the Big 10) which should lead to a number of 2nd chance points. They also get to the FT line with the 6th most frequency in the country so we should have an advantage there as well. The Bruins are just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite in conference play this year and we think this game goes to the wire. Take the points.

#646 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago -2.5 over Bradley, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We were on Bradley on Saturday and picked up a nice win as they topped Illinois State by 14 points at home as a 4.5 point favorite. It was a great spot for the Braves as they were coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Valpo (we were on Valpo) and they had their worst loss of the season earlier in the year vs Illinois State. They were waiting for that home game vs their in-state rivals. The Redbirds were not at full strength entering that game playing without big man Chase Walker (as we stated in our write up on Saturday). Bradley took advantage shooting 66% inside the arc in that win which was well above their season average of 48%. UIC sits one game behind Bradley for 2nd place in the Missouri Valley Conference and this is their home finale. The Flames have been red hot to say the least winning 11 of their last 14 games after starting the conference with an 0-4 record. When these 2 met earlier this season @ Bradley, the Flames dominated winning by 15 and they led by 24 at one point. They took care of the glass (+10 rebounds) gathering 34% of their misses compared to 20% for the Braves. We don’t expect anything different here as UIC ranks #1 in the MVC in offensive rebounding and Bradley sits 299th nationally on the offensive glass. The Braves have been very good at home, however on the road they are 4-6 on the season and 2 of those wins came in OT vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the MVC (Evansville & Indiana St). These 2 have almost identical offensive efficiency numbers in conference play, however defensive Illinois Chicago has a huge edge allowing 0.99 PPP to 1.07 for the Braves. UIC also defends the arc at a high level (57th nationally) and that’s where Bradley likes to operate on offense. This number is short in our opinion and we’ll take Illinois Chicago to win and cover in their final home game of the season.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Phoenix Suns, 8pm ET - At first glance it looks like you are paying a premium price with the Blazers in this game but the situation warrants a bet on the visitor in this showdown. Portland is coming off a humiliating loss to the Nuggets in which they allowed 157 points. That type of embarrassment gets the attention of these NBA competitors. Prior to that beatdown the Blazers had won 4 of five games and the other loss was in Minnesota. The game before that solid stretch of games was a home loss to the same Suns team. The Blazers played without their leading scorer in that game (Avdija) and the Suns had Brooks who is out today. Portland is also rested – the Suns are not. Phoenix played an OT thriller last night and this will also be their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they have faced a gauntlet of opponents in OKC, SAS and Orlando last night. Even with their blowout loss to the Nuggets, the Blazers have a better overall efficiency differential in their last 5-games than the Suns. Portland has an eDIFF of +7.2 in their last 5 games, the Suns are minus -5.1 in that same span. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the Suns in this game…so bet the Blazers instead!

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -4.5 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30pm ET - Normally this would be a spot to potentially fade the Nuggets after they destroyed the Blazers on Friday night 157-103 and we would expect a letdown. But the Nuggets are facing the Warriors and there’s no way they won’t be pumped for this game. Plus, the Nuggets are getting healthy with the return of Cam Johnson and Christian Braun and looking like the team that can contend for a Championship. The added benefit from their blowout win the other night is the fact that no starter played more than 30-minutes. Golden State is nothing more than a lower tier playoff team that is more reputation than potential. The loss of Jimmy Butler is just too much to overcome and Steph Curry can only do so much. Draymond Green is on a steep decline and is not close to the player he once was. Even Porzingis won’t move the needle on this team moving forward. Golden State just played two other teams at home (Boston, San Antonio) that are on a similar level as the Nuggets and they lost both by double-digits. Denver is 21-10 SU on the road this season with an average margin of victory of +6.0ppg. They have won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Warriors and we are betting this one gets ugly early and the Nuggets cruise to a 10-plus point win.

#848 ASA PLAY ON Wright St -3.5 (-118) over Robert Morris, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wright State has a comfortable lead in Horizon League play sitting in 1st place with a 13-4 record and the 2nd place teams already have 7 losses. However, they will be fully focused here as one of their 4 losses came vs this Robert Morris team earlier this month. The line value here is solid as the Raiders were favored by 1.5 @ Robert Morris and now they are only laying 4 at home (opening line). The Colonials shot 48% overall and 45% from deep in that win while holding Wright St to just 35% from the field and 5 of 20 (25%) from beyond the arc. It’s pretty amazing the Raiders were able to keep the game close on the road with those shooting numbers. This is a very good offensive team that ranks in the top 30 nationally in FG% and hits 36% of their 3’s. It’s not as if Robert Morris is a great defensive teams ranking 181st in FG% allowed and outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Just a poor outing for Wright State and we expect much better at home this afternoon. The Raiders are #1 in the Horizon League in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. They get to the FT line often (top 100 in FT’s made per game) and make them at a 76% rate in conference play. Robert Morris ranks 347th in the country allowing opponents to make nearly 18 FT’s per game so we would expect the Raiders to have a solid advantage from the charity stripe as they did in the first meeting making 8 more FT’s when compared to the Colonials. Lastly, Robert Morris thrives on the boards but Wright State is solid in that aspect as well and actually outrebounded the Colonials in the first meeting. If the Raiders can hang on the boards again, which we expect them will, they should have an advantage at the FT line and shoot much better this game and that leads to a cover at home.

#822 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -3.5 over UC Santa Barbara, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Really like this spot for Hawaii. They just lost at home to Cal Poly on Thursday night in a game Shot Quality metrics had them winning. The Rainbows shot only 38% from the field and were 3 of 23 (13% from deep) in what was their first home conference loss this season. UCSB lost at home on Thursday night in OT vs Cal State Northridge despite making 10 more 3 pointers and 6 more FT’s. That means the Gauchos were +36 points from 3 and the FT line and still lost at home. Now after that back and forth OT game, they have to make the long trek to the islands and play just 48 hours later vs an angry Hawaii team. On top of that, the Bows will have even more motivation here as they lost @ UCSB by 15 points back in mid January. Hawaii was actually favored by 2.5 points in that game and now we’re getting them at almost the same number at home! The Gauchos rely heavily on the 3 point shot with 47% of their shots coming from deep. In this game they face the 3rd best 3 point defense in the country as Hawaii allows opponents to shoot just 28% from beyond the arc. In the first meeting, UCSB made 39% of their triples at home and we don’t see them coming anywhere close to that number here. Santa Barbara starting PG Little has missed the last 5 games and also missed some time earlier this year. It doesn’t look like he’ll play in this one (hand injury) and if he does he won’t be 100%. The Gauchos are 13-3 this season with Little in the line up and 4-7 when he doesn’t play. While Hawaii is outstanding defensively, they aren’t a great shooting team (142nd in FG%) but they are much better offensively at home and they are facing a bad Santa Barbara defense. The Gauchos are 313th in the country in defensive FG% and 299th defending the arc. They rank 8th or lower in the Big West in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Coming off a rare home loss with a revenge game vs UCSB, we like Hawaii laying this short number.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -10.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10pm ET - Both teams are coming off games/wins last night but the Heat have the advantage because of the situation. Memphis dressed just 9 players last night and are without their top two scorers in this game (Jerome and Morant) along with recently traded Jaren Jackson Jr (19.2ppg). That 60-points per game is tough to replace with a bunch of unproven players on the roster. The Grizzlies beat a tanking Jazz team last night after trailing by 12-points at halftime. The Heat are off an impressive win in Atlanta last night 128-97 with Tyler Herro returning for 23 minutes and scoring 24 points. Miami is 9-4 SU when playing without rest this season with an average MOV of +6.0ppg in that scenario. Memphis is 2-5 SU on the 2nd night of a back to back with a negative average differential of minus -7.6ppg. The Heat have scored 123 or more points in 3 of their last four games which will be tough to match for a Grizz team that ranks 25th in offensive efficiency at 1.136 points per possession. Not to mention, the Heat have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing just 1.093PPP. A motivated Miami team will win this home game by 13+.

#778 ASA PLAY ON Bradley -3.5 over Illinois State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Bradley has been waiting for this one after losing @ Illinois State in mid January 88-62. The Redbirds shot lights out in that win hitting 53% of their shots to just 35% for Bradley. It was the Braves worst loss of the season and their worst loss vs arch rival ISU since since 2012. Prior to their loss @ ISU this year, Bradley had won 6 straight vs the Redbirds and they’ve won 7 of the last 8 at home in this series. The Braves are coming off a loss @ Valpo on Wednesday (we were on Valpo) and they are 7-2 this year coming off a loss. You can bet they were probably peaking ahead to this rematch as head coach Brian Wardle was very disappointed after they game saying, “I don't think we came out with the toughness, or the mental or physical toughness, to win this game." Now back at home where they’ve been really good at home with a 12-2 record including a win over 1st place Belmont (14-3 MVC record) who holds a 3 game leading in the Missouri Valley. Bradley has a +11 PPG margin at home this year while ISU sits at -3 PPG on the road. Speaking of the road, the Redbirds have lost 5 of their last 6 road games including @ Evansville and @ Indiana State, the 2 lowest rated teams in the conference. ISU has split their last 8 games with a win followed by a loss in each. They are coming off a home win over Murray State shooting 55% overall and 43% from deep. The Birds played that game without starting big man Chase Walker and it looks like he will probably miss this game with a hamstring injury. He averages 14 PPG and 6 RPG on the season and in ISU’s win over Bradley he had 20 points and 11 boards. Bradley is #1 in the Valley in offensive turnover percentage and they are the better 3 point shooting team and FT shooting team in this revenge match up. We’ll lay it.

#733 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +6 over TCU, Saturday at 5 PM ET - West Virginia fits into a solid CBB system of ours that plays on teams that lose their previous game as a double digit favorite (among a few other factors). It hits almost 65% of the time over the last 5+ seasons. The Mountaineers were just upset at home by Utah as a 10.5 point favorite so they will be fully focused here. They’ve done a great job of bouncing back after a loss picking up wins after each of their previous 5 Big 12 losses. WVU has also been a solid road team with 3 conference wins away from home over Cincinnati, Arizona State, and UCF. Their only 3 road losses in Big 12 play have come vs the 3 best teams in the conference (Houston, Iowa State, and Arizona) all top 7 teams in the nation per KenPom. The Neers are one of the slowest paced teams in the country (362nd in adjusted tempo) which limits possessions and makes it tough to pull away from them. On top of that, they have an outstanding defense ranking 25th nationally in efficiency and 5th in the country allowing only 63 PPG. The only teams in conference play to top 70 points vs WVU were Kansas (a game WVU won), Houston, Arizona, and Iowa State and the latter 3 are all top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency. Saturday’s opponent, TCU, is outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and 9th in the Big 12 in that metric. The Frogs will have a tough time getting margin in this game if they do end up winning. TCU has 6 Big 12 wins and none have come by more than 7 points. They have relied heavily on points from the FT line in league play (#1 in percentage of points from the charity stripe) but West Virginia does a great job of not fouling (9th nationally in opponent’s FT attempts per game). The Horned Frogs will have to shoot very well here to pull away from WVU and we don’t see that happening as they rank 13th in the conference in eFG% and 15th in 3 point FG%. They are just 5-11 ATS as favorite this season while the Mountaineers have already won 3 conference outright as a dog this season. We’ll take the points with West Virginia.

ASA NBA play on New Orleans Pelicans -4 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - The market reactions to this number tell us the bet is on the Pelicans in this one. The money and tickets are coming in on the Bucks, yet the line has moved from the Pels favored by -3 to the current number of -4. Not only that, these two teams just met in early February in Milwaukee and the Pelicans were favored by 5-points on the Bucks home court. Milwaukee did win that game in OT 141-137 but the Bucks shot WELL above expectations at 61% for the game, 45% from Deep. You can bet there will be a regression in those numbers on the road in New Orleans. The Pelicans are not incentivized to tank the rest of the season as they don’t have any draft stock to improve their position. They are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall with an average +/- of +1.1ppg. The Bucks meanwhile are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games with a negative average differential of minus -2.5ppg. Another clear indicator the Pelicans are playing better is their net rating over the last 10 games of plus +1.0 compared to the Bucks -2.5. The Bucks are 3-6 SU their last nine road games with a negative average differential of minus -7.7ppg. We will follow the betting markets contrarian advice in this one and take the home team.

#874 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Mercy -2 over UW Milwaukee, Friday at 7 PM ET - Love the value here in Detroit as we have this game power rated with the Titans as a 5 point favorite. Detroit has played the tougher strength of schedule in Horizon League play (compared to UWM) yet still has a better record at 9-7 compared to UWM at 7-10. The Titans efficiency metrics both offensively and defensively are superior to Milwaukee in league play. The Titans are #1 in Horizon League play in eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and offensive 3 point FG%. They are playing well right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming @ UWGB. They just faced UWM on the road in early February and dominated winning by 13 points (led by 20 in the 2nd half) and the Panthers never had a lead the entire game at home. The Panthers lost 2 of their best players earlier this season and have never really recovered. It may look like they are on the rebound coming off back to back wins but we don’t buy it. UWM was 2-11 their previous 13 games prior to topping IU Indy by 4 (worst team in the conference with 3-14 record) and then getting back UWGB on Sunday by 3 points. They got a bit lucky in both. Versus IU Indy, the Panthers shot 48% (they rank dead last in eFG% in league play), made 16 more FT’s, yet still only led for 36% of the game. In their home game vs UWGB on Sunday, the Phoenix actually led for almost 90% of the game and Milwaukee’s largest lead of the game was the final score of 75-72. Detroit is simply the better team here and since starting the season 1-6, they’ve won 11 of their last 18 games while UWM has won just 4 of their last 17 games. We like the Titans at home on Friday night.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -8.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10pm ET - You don’t have to concern yourself with home court advantage here as the Kings boast a 9-19 SU record in their own building with the second worst average scoring differential of minus -6.8ppg. The Magic come into this game off a home loss to the Bucks and fall into a favorable ATS situation as a road chalk. Orlando currently sits 7th in the East and are capable of moving all the way up to a 4 seed which would be home court advantage. They are also is a situation where they could fall out of the playoffs all together or slip to the 9 or 10 seed. Sacramento on the other hand has the worst record in the NBA at 12-44 and are tanking for a better draft position. They have benched Zach LaVine for the season and are limiting other starters minutes including Sabonis. They went into the All Star break with a pair of losses by 28 and 26 points and have currently lost 14 straight games. Orlando hasn’t lived up to expectations this season and have played a large part of the season without the services of the Wagners. Frans is out for this game but Morits is back in action. We don’t have a problem laying the pints with the Magic on the road here and expect a double-digit win by the visitor.

#794 ASA PLAY ON UT Arlington -4 over Utah Tech, Thursday at 8 PM ET - In a weird twist, because the WAC has only 7 teams, they play each other 3 times during the season. These 2 have met twice, splitting the 2 games, but both were @ Utah Tech. UT Arlington won the first meeting 56-52 and lost the 2nd meeting 87-84 in OT. Now they get a shot to host Utah Tech for the first time this season. We’re getting some line value here with the home team as both meetings @ Utah Tech had the host favored by 1.5 so this line should be closer to -6 in favor of UTA. Tech has won 6 in a row entering this contest and Arlington has lost 5 in a row which is the reason for the deflated line. 5 of the 6 games in the Trailblazers current 6 game winning streak came by 6 points or less and 4 of the 6 were at home. None of those wins were vs any of the top 3 rated teams (per KenPom) in the WAC (Utah Valley, Cal Baptist, and UT Arlington). Meanwhile, UTA’s 5 game losing streak involved loss to both UVU and Cal Baptist (top 2 teams in the league) and 2 of those setbacks came in OT and 2 others came by 4 & 5 points. That run leaves the Mavericks with a 6-7 record in WAC play but they are rated as the 3rd best team on the conference. Utah Tech is 9-4 in conference play yet rated below UTA per KenPom. The Blazers and Mavs had almost dead even FG% numbers in their first 2 games combined but UTA actually led for 60% of the time in those 2 games combined while Utah Tech led for 30% (tied for 10%). And those games were @ Utah Tech. Now we get the Mavs at home where they are 8-3 this year and Tech is 5-8 on the road. We like Arlington to win this game at home and we’ll lay this short number.

#802 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3.5 over Texas State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - If you’re facing South Alabama’s defense, you better be able to make 3’s. They pack it in on D and force teams to shoot 3’s. In fact, 65% of opponents shots vs the Jags defense this year have been from beyond the arc which is by far the highest percentage on the county (next closest is 53%). Problem here is, Texas State is not a good 3 point shooting team ranking 13th in Sun Belt play hitting just 30% from deep and only 27% on the road this season. On top of that, they don’t like shooting 3’s as only 25% of their shot attempts coming from beyond the arc which is dead last in the country. Just a bad match up for this Texas State offense facing a South Alabama defense that not only forces you to shoot 3’s but they allow opponents to make only 30% at home. We’re getting some really nice value on South Alabama laying only 2.5 (opening line) at home. These 2 met once this season and Texas State was favored by just 1.5 at home which means the Jags should be favored by around 5 to 6 points here which is exactly where we have this game power rated. That lower number is due on part because the Bobcats step into this game having won 6 straight games with 5 of those coming at home. They’ve only played 1 road game since January 24th and that was a win @ Georgia Southern who is spiraling downward winning just 3 of their last 10 games. In the first meeting between these 2 @ Texas State, the Bobcats won a tight game 67-65. The Jags led by 15 in the 2nd half in that game and led for a whopping 90% of the game and lost. They outplayed Texas State on the road for the vast majority of the game but blew it late and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. In that game the Bobcats shot only 21% from 3 (as expected) but South Alabama made only 3 of 15 from deep as well. We look for the Bobcats to struggle shooting again and the Jags to shoot much better at home where they make 35% of their triples. Texas State is just 2-8 on the road this season and S Bama is 8-2 at home. The Jaguars are coming off a 3 game road trip (went 2-1) but lost a tight game @ Marshall on Monday and they have bounced back with wins after 7 of their 8 losses this season. Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

#752 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -1.5 over Pacific, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Love this spot for a Washington State team that has been solid at home. The Cougars are coming of 3 straight losses with 2 of those coming on the road. Their lone home loss during this stretch was a 96-92 setback vs a very good Santa Clara team (22-6 overall record and 13-2 in the WCC) who sits in 2nd place in the WCC behind Gonzaga and is a top 40 team in the country per KenPom. The Cougs only other home loss in conference play was vs Gonzaga so their only 2 home setbacks were vs the teams in 1st and 2nd place. Their most recent loss was a blowout loss @ Gonzaga which was expected (Wazzu was 22 point underdog) but they’ve now had a full week off to rest and get ready for this one. Pacific hasn’t had that luxury. This will be the Tigers 5th game in 15 days and they could be a bit flat here as they played one of their biggest home games of the season on Saturday playing host to St Mary’s which turned into a double digit loss. Not only did they face St Mary’s on Saturday, they travel to Gonzaga next so a true sandwich spot. The Tigers have not been good on the road with a 4-9 overall record but they have only 2 road wins in WCC @ Pepperdine (lowest rated team in the WCC) and @ Oregon State (4th lowest rated team in the WCC). All 4 of their road wins have come vs teams ranked 180th or lower in KenPom’s power ratings (Washington State is 133rd). 3 of the Tigers conference road losses (vs Portland, Loyola Marymount, and San Diego) have come vs teams rated much lower than this Wazzu team. Pacific leans on their defense which has very solid overall numbers but on they’ve been drastically different on the road where they allow 10 more PPG (compared to at home) on 1.07 PPP (just 0.94 PPP allowed at home). They are facing a Washington State offense that shoots 50% and puts up 82 PPG at home this season where they’ve covered 5 of their 7 conference games. The situation heavily favors the Cougars at home and we’ll lay this small number.

#629 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech +8.5 over Miami FL, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - This one sets up nicely to grab the points with Va Tech. The Hokies are coming off by far their worst ACC performance of the season getting rolled at home vs a red hot Florida State team. VT was favored by 4.5 in that game and lost 92-69. The Noles shot 62% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. It was just one of those games. Prior to that, Va Tech’s worst ACC losses were each by 14 points vs Duke and Louisville. The game prior to their FSU debacle, the Hokies went on the road and beat Clemson by 10. The Canes are in a bit of a possible letdown spot coming off 2 huge wins over UNC and NC State and they have a date with Virginia next, who sits 1 game above them in the conference standings. They were a bit fortunate the last 2 games as they caught the Tar Heels a few days after the upset Duke at home (perfect spot and we were on Miami) and then they trailed for a majority of the game vs NC State and were down 7 points with under 1:00 remaining and pulled out a miracle. Miami rarely blows teams out as 7 of their 9 ACC wins have come by single digits and their PPG margin in league play is just +4.5. They already have 2 conference losses at home vs FSU and Cal who both rank below this Va Tech team per KenPom. They don’t have much of a home court advantage covering just 1 of their 6 ACC games at home. Va Tech should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc. They rank in the top 100 in 3 point FG% and they are facing a Miami D that 15th in the conference defending the arc allowing almost 37%. On offense, the Canes are the worst 3 point shooting team in league play making only 29% and the Hokies are top 40 in the nation defending the arc. We should get an all out effort here from VT off their embarrassing performance on Saturday and we look for this game to be very tight as most Miami games are. Take the points.

#812 ASA PLAY ON Southern Illinois -2.5 over Bradley, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These 2 Illinois rivals faced off in late December in their first match up with Bradley squeaking out at 4 point win. SIU made only 3 triples in the game and were outscored from the FT line by 6 points. This is a game the Salukis have had circled in red for a while as they’ve lost 7 in a row to their arch rivals. SIU was an underdog in all 7 of those losses and prior to this year, they ranked at least 25 spots lower than Bradley (per KenPom) at the time of those meetings. So not a huge surprise they lost those games. Now, despite their 6-9 Missouri Valley record, the Salukis are ranked 23 spots higher than the Braves who are 10-5 in league play. This is their best shot to break the streak and we think they will. Bradley is overvalued sitting in 3rd place in the MVC but they are rated as the 7th best team in the conference per KenPom. The Braves are coming off a massive home win in OT vs 1st place Belmont earlier this week. That sets this one up nicely to take SIU at home as a small favorite. The Braves have 3 conference road wins but those were vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (Evansville, Indiana St, and Drake) and 2 of those wins came in OT. They aren’t a great shooting team, especially on the road where they make only 40% of their shots and average just 1.05 PPP. They are facing the MVC’s best defense on Sunday as SIU ranks #1 in defensive efficiency allowing opponents less than 1.00 PPP. The Salukis are playing their best basketball of the conference season winning 4 of their last 6 and 7 of their 9 MVC losses have come by 7 points or less. Interestingly, despite their records in league play (SIU 6-9 and Bradley 10-5) they have the exact same PPG margin at +1. In other words, Southern Illinois’ record could be much better and Bradley’s could be much worst. On the season, SIU has played the tougher strength of schedule and despite that, their straight stats are better than Bradley. They have a higher FG% offensive and they are much better on defense ranking in the top 90 on FG% allowed while the Braves rank 236th. We love the value here getting the better team by nearly a full 25 spots as a very small home favorite. SIU is the call in this one.

#756 ASA PLAY ON Cal State Northridge +3.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Hawaii sits in 1st place in the Big West with a 10-3 record, but they’ve had one tough scheduling stretch. This is already their FOURTH 2-game trip to the mainland since January 1st. They’ve split the 3 previous trips winning a game and losing a game. They won @ Cal State Bakersfield (worst team in the Big West) on Thursday night and now they are facing a surging CSUN team that has won 4 in a row and sitting at 8-5 in conference play. While the Rainbows have been going back and forth from the islands to the mainland for a month and a half now, Northridge will be playing their 4th home game in their last 5 games overall. The Matadors are 10-1 at home this season and they’ve been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed @ Hawaii on January 24th. CSUN lost that game by 21 points on a terrible shooting performance making just 38% of their shots, 29% from deep, and only 47% of their FT’s. They actually attempted 11 more shots in that game but made 7 fewer triples and 12 fewer FT’s. It was, by far, their worst loss of the Big West season with all 4 of their other setbacks coming by single digits. We look for the Matadors to play much better offensively at home where they make 49% and average 89 PPG. While Hawaii is 14-1 at home this year, they are just 4-4 on the road and we like Northridge to have a solid shot at the upset here. We expect a tight game either way and we’ll take the points.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Utah St -12.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We don’t think Memphis will be able to keep up in this game. First of all it’s terrible scheduling spot for the Tigers. They just played @ North Texas on Thursday night and now are playing another road game, in altitude, just 48 hours later. On top of that it’s their 4th game in 10 days with 3 coming on the road. On the other hand, Utah State played at home on Tuesday (beat Fresno by 13 but led by 21 in the 2nd half) giving them a few extra days to prepare. The Aggies are 21-3 on the season and they are a great offensive team. They rank 7th in the nation hitting just over 51% of their shots, they are 27th in offensive efficiency and average 84 PPG (19th in the nation). Memphis is not a very good shooting team ranking outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%. The Tigers are just 2-7 on the road this year and one of those wins was vs Rice, the 3rd worst team in the AAC. The Tigers do have very solid overall defensive numbers, however those stats drop drastically on the road and we’re looking at a strong possibility of tired legs, on a short turn around, playing in altitude here as well. Memphis allows just 67 PPG at home on 0.89 PPP but on the road that jumps to 80 PPG and 1.10 PPP. They haven’t faced a very good slate of offensive teams and in fact, only 2 teams in the AAC are in the top 100 in offensive efficiency and Memphis has faced only 1 of those teams. That was Tulsa who beat them 83-66 and averaged 1.26 PPP in that game. We also expect USU to get plenty of extra possessions here as they create turnovers at a high level (16th in the country) and Memphis coughs the ball up at an alarming rate of 20% (340th in the country). The Aggies are also the 46th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Memphis is 329th in defensive rebounding. On top of that, both teams play up tempo which should play right into Utah State’s hands in this game at home giving them even more opportunities to pull away vs a tired Memphis team. The Cats has faced just 2 top 100 teams in AAC play on the road (Wichita St and Tulsa) and lost those games by 15 and 17 points and both are ranked well below this Utah State team (25th in the nation per KenPom). This is a non-conference game that we expect USU to be much more focused on being at home and playing a name BB school like Memphis. The Tigers, on the other hand, have another road game on deck at South Florida who sits in first place in the AAC which is a much more important game for them. This had the potential to get ugly and we’ll lay the points.

#678 ASA PLAY ON Northern Colorado -3 over Portland State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Portland State sits in first place in the Big Sky with an 11-1 record, however they’ve played by far the easiest schedule in conference play. They’ve faced only 1 of the top 5 teams in the league (per KenPom) on the road this year and that was @ Idaho who is the 5th rated team and barely sits in the top 200 at 195. PSU beat the Vandals in that game by 3 points but Idaho was dealing with some serious flu issues in that game with a few key players nowhere near 100% yet it still went to the wire. This is a tough schedule spot for the Vikings as well playing their 3rd straight road game after winning by 1 point @ Sacramento State last Saturday (we were on Sac State +4.5) and by 9 @ Northern Arizona on Thursday. Those are the 2 lowest rated teams in the Big Sky and now they take a big jump up facing a red hot Northern Colorado team. The Bears struggled early in the conference season winning just 1 of their first 8 games but they have since won 5 in a row. 5 of their 7 Big Sky losses have come by 5 points or less and despite their 6-7 league record, they are still rated as the 3rd best team in the conference. While Portland State is playing their 2nd road game in 48 hours, Northern Colorado is at home for their 2nd straight game after handling Sacramento State 95-79 here on Thursday. These 2 faced off @ Portland State in mid January and the Vikings pulled off a 76-73 win despite leading for only 35% of the game and the Bears missed a 3 pointer with 4 seconds left down 1 which would have given them the win. NC is one of the better offensive teams in the country ranking in the top 45 in FG%, 3 point FG% and scoring. They’ve been waiting for this one and catching PSU in a perfect spot to pick up a win. There is a reason the team with the 6-7 Big Sky record is favored over the 11-1 team. We’ll lay the small number.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers –7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 pm ET - Heading into the All-Star break with the final games before the break taking place Thursday night and one of those is the Blazers vs Jazz game. These two teams are heading in opposite directions with the Blazers in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase sitting 9th and only a few games behind the 8th place Warriors. Utah on the other hand has 18 wins on the season and, though off a surprisingly big win last night over the Kings, indications are they will tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. The other night in Miami, the Jazz were playing well through 3 quarters and leading the Heat, then unexpectedly sat the starters in the 4th Q. This Jazz roster with the addition of Jackson Jr and the emergence of Keyonte George has a bright future but we won’t see their best play the rest of the way this season. Portland is playing well right now with a close loss to Phoenix before then winning 3 in a row against the Grizzlies and Sixers prior to last night's loss at Minnesota. Portland has the 11th best Net rating over their last 5-games and they had covered 5 straight road games before the blowout loss to the Timberwolves last night. The big advantage the Blazers have in this matchup in their defense which ranks 19th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.165-points per possession. Utah on the other hand is LAST in the NBA in dEFF allowing 1.229PPP. Portland has beaten the Jazz twice already this season with the most recent win coming in early January by 20-points. This one could be just as ugly as the last one.

#780 ASA PLAY ON Northern Colorado -7.5 over Sacramento State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We were on Sacramento State on Saturday as a 4.5 point dog vs Portland State and picked up a win with PSU winning by just 1 point. That was a home game for Sac St where they’ve played very well as of late. This one is on the road where they’ve been terrible to say the least. The Hornets are 0-12 SU on the road this season getting outscored by an average of 16 PPG. They are already one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 317th making just 42% of their shots but on the road that drops to just 37% including only 26% from beyond the arc. Sac State has played 6 of their last 8 at home and they’ve shot WAY above their average from deep in those 6 home games which spurred their recent 5-3 record over their last 8. In those 6 home games they made 62 of 138 from 3 point land for 45% (they average 33% on the season). In their 2 road games during that stretch (both losses) they made just 8 of 31 from deep (25%) which is actually very close to their road average. They’ll struggle here vs a Northern Colorado D that allows 31% from deep (61st in the country). The Bears are the MUCH better shooting team overall ranking 29th in the country making 49% of their shots and that improves to over 50% at home. These 2 just met on January 17th and Sacramento St pulled off a 91-87 win in OT. NC led for nearly 90% of that game including sitting on an 18 point lead with under 10:00 left in the game and they blew it. You can bet they are completely focused on this rematch. The line in that game was Northern Colorado -7.5 and now we’re getting them at the exact same line at home (opener was -7.5) against a team that is terrible on the road. The Bears are on a nice run as well winning 4 in a row, including 2 road wins, and we look for them to cover this one at home.

#720 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -6.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We really like the way this one sets up for the Aggies at home. They are off back to back losses @ Alabama by 3 and they were crushed at home vs Florida (2 of the top 20 teams in the country per KenPom) over the weekend. That should give them some extra motivation in this one. Their loss vs Florida (highest rated team in the SEC) was their first home loss in league play this season. Missouri is off back to back wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina, by far the 2 worst teams in the conference per KenPom and this will be their 2nd straight road game. The Tigers have struggled on the road losing their 3 previous away from home, including a 90-64 loss @ Bama, prior to beating South Carolina (worst team in the league) over the weekend. They’ve been drastically worse on the road on offense averaging 69 PPG on 1.00 PPP compared to 87 PPG on 1.21 PPP at home. The Aggie defense ranks 2nd in the SEC in defensive efficiency, 3rd in eFG% allowed, and 2nd in 3 point FG% allowed so the Tigers offense will most likely struggle here. On offense A&M loves to shoot the 3 with 48% of their shots coming from deep (25th most nationally) and they make them at a 37% rate (39th nationally). That’s a terrible match up for the Mizzou defense that ranks 13th in the SEC defending the arc and 275th in the country. The Aggies average 95 PPG this season at home and as we stated above, Missouri steps in at just 69 PPG on the road. The host also has a big advantage at the FT line where they shoot 77% to just 67% for the Tigers. The Aggies have won 5 straight in this series and 8 of the last 10. We’ll lay it here with the desperate home team off 2 straight losses and 3 of their next 4 are on the road.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - The Hornets will be shorthanded tonight with suspensions likely coming for Diabate and Bridges stemming from a brawl the other night against the Pistons. That’s a significant loss for the Hornet in one key aspect of their advantage in this game against the Hawks. These two teams just played a few days ago and the Hornets outrebounded the Hawks by 19. Diabate and Bridges are the two leading rebounders for the Hornets. Charlotte has been on a fantastic run of late but when you look at season long statistics there isn’t much of a gap between these two teams with the Hornets having a +1.9 efficiency differential compared to the Hawks -1.2 eDIFF. Atlanta shoots it at 47.3% on the season (11th best) and the Hornets allow 47.3%, 19th worst in the league. The Hawks should enjoy a solid advantage from beyond the arc in this one as they are the 6th best 3PT shooting team in the league going up against the 24th 3PT% D of the Hornets. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team at 46.1% (22nd) which will have a tough time exploiting a Hawks defense that is 22nd in FG% allowed. We like the Hawks here playing with quick revenge from the loss just a few days ago on their home court when the Hornets were at full strength (Diabate and Bridges combined for 21 rebounds and 37 points in that game). The road team has covered 3 of the last four meetings is this series. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -8 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET - The Phoenix Suns have one very strong trend working in their favor in this matchup and that’s a blistering 25-11 ATS record in conference play this season. Conversely, Dallas is the worst team in the NBA in conference play with a 12-22 ATS mark. The Suns are winning at home by an average of plus +5.6ppg on the season. The Mavs are losing on the road by that same average but it’s a negative number of minus -5.6ppg. Dallas is 2-10 SU in their last twelve road games. Phoenix is off a loss in this game and that’s been a favorable betting situation this season as they are 14-7 ATS when coming off an ‘L’. The Mavs are a poor 3PT shooting team at 34.5% on the season (25th) and will find it difficult against a Suns D that has the 5th best 3PT% defense allowing 34.7%. Granted the Mavs defend the arc better than anyone but the Suns should have above average success here with the 10th best 3PT% in the NBA at 36.5%. Phoenix is also the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league and 7th in second chance points which will be the deciding factor in this outcome. Lay it with the Sun over the Mavs.

#606 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +1.5 over North Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Really bad spot for UNC who is coming off their last second win over Duke at home on Saturday. It was a game the Heels NEVER led until the final shot of the game when they made a 3 pointer at the buzzer. UNC shot the ball better overall (47% to 45%) and hit 42% of their triples (37% for Duke) yet never had a lead at home. It’s going to be really tough for this team to go on the road and win after the energy and emotions of that Duke win. UNC has just a 2-3 record on the road in ACC play and one of those wins was vs the worst team in the conference Georgia Tech. The Canes are 18-5 on the season and 7-3 in ACC play. They are 12-2 at home and we have them as a slight favorite in this game and that doesn’t factor in the situation. Simply numbers. 2 of Miami’s 3 ACC losses have come by 2 points or less and their only loss by more than 1 possession in league play was @ Clemson who is in first place in the conference with a 10-1 record. The Canes are one of the best shooting teams in the country (11th in FG%) and they are averaging 90 PPG at home this season. UNC’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however on the road they have allowed opponents to shoot 50% while giving up 82 PPG. The Heels are 1-2 ATS as a road favorite this year losing 2 of those games outright. This is the first time this season Miami is getting points at home and we’ll take the points as we expect the Canes to win this one.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Kansas +2 over Arizona, Monday at 9 PM ET - Arizona steps into this one with a perfect 23-0 record and the lone Power 5 teams still unblemished (Miami OH from the MAC is also undefeated). Chances of them going undefeated are very slight as just 2 teams in the last 15 years have entered the NCAA tourney with a perfect record. This is a spot where we see KU having a great shot at the upset. Allen Fieldhouse is one of the most difficult venues for opposing teams with KU going 341-22 here since Bill Self took over in 2003 and a perfect 38-0 in Big Monday games on ESPN. It’s a rarity to see the Jayhawks as a home underdog. It’s only happened 4 times since Self took over in 2003 and KU has won 3 of those 4 games outright. The only game they did not win SU was earlier this year vs UConn (a 5 point loss) in a game Kansas was without guard Peterson who is projected as they first overall pick in the upcoming NBA draft. They were also a home dog a few weeks ago vs a top tier Iowa State team (#6 nationally per KenPom) and they blasted the Cyclones by 21 points. Speaking of Peterson, he’s had some injury issues this season (cramping as well) and missed 9 games. However, he’s been ramping up the last few games playing 30+ minutes in both wins over a really good Texas Tech team and Utah so he seems to be close to 100%. The Hawks are on a roll winning 7 in a row including impressive wins over Iowa State, BYU, and Texas Tech (on the road). Zona is obviously very good, but with the exception of their 3 point road win @ BYU, they haven’t been tested on the road in Big 12 play facing 4 teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 50 in their other 4 conference road tilts. The Cats have faced the easiest schedule in Big 12 play having faced only 1 of the top 6 teams in the conference thus far which was their 3 point win @ BYU (the 6th rated team in the Big 12 per KenPom). This smells like a possible upset brewing and we’ll take the points.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +7.5 at Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Jazz and fade the Heat who are off a game yesterday in Washington. Not only that, but the Heat had two huge games prior to that against the Celtics and Hawks and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. Utah is playing their 5th straight road game but had yesterday off and previously played in Orlando so travel is not an issue. The Jazz have looked much better in recent games with a 7-point loss at Toronto, a win in Indiana, a 2-point loss in Atlanta and a 3-point loss to the Magic (4-0 ATS). Utah actually has a pretty solid roster now with Nurkic, Markkanen, Jackson Jr (Memphis trade), Baily and George as their starting five. Miami will be missing two of their leading scorers on Monday with Powell and Herro both listed as out here. Miami is a respectable 14-12 ATS at home this season but their average MOV is +4.3ppg which isn’t enough to get it done tonight against the Jazz and the points. Scheduling can’t be overlooked in this one so while Miami may win, we expect it to be close.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 vs LA Clippers 3 PM ET - The Clippers made a few big deals at the trade deadline when they shipped two starting veterans in Zubac and Harden to Indiana and Cleveland. They brought in some youth with Garland, Mathurin and Jackson but those three are not expected to play here. The Clippers are 1-2 SU in their last three games after going on a torrid streak with Harden/Zubac on their roster. We expect a regression in their game in the short term as the new starters will need to acclimate to the new scheme in L.A. Clearly the oddsmakers are suggesting the same as they set this line higher than normal. They are baiting us into betting on the Clippers and we won’t fall for the trap. The Wolves are coming off a disappointing loss to the Pelicans at home and should bounce back in this one. Minnesota is 5-2 SU in their last seven games and have been solid at home this season with a 17-9 SU record. The Wolves have won 5 straight against the Clippers and should enjoy an advantage from beyond the arc in this one. Minnesota is the 4th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA and the Clippers rank 25th in 3PT% defense. That will be the difference in this one and gets the Wolves a double-digit home win.

#861 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +13 over Iowa, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid line value with NW in this game. It’s an overreaction to their 40 point loss @ Illinois, a game that had a Shot Quality score of 78-65 in favor of the Illini. So the final was not indicative of how the game should have played out. Illinois was favored by 15 at home in that game and now Iowa is laying 13? So on a neutral court Illinois would be a 2 point favorite over Iowa? Yeah that wouldn’t be the number in fact our power rating have Illinois as a 7.5 point favorite in that situation. Anyway you get the point. Iowa is on the other end of the spectrum as of late. They are coming off and 18 and 10 point win vs Oregon & Washington and the SQ scores in those games had the Hawkeyes winning by 6 and 5 respectively. All that together is giving us value on the Wildcats in this one. The Hawks have 1 home win by more than 13 points in Big 10 play and that was vs Maryland, the 2nd lowest rated team in the conference. They only have 2 Big 10 wins by more than 13 in their 11 games played. NW has been fairly competitive on the Big 10 road minus their game @ Illinois. They beat USC, lost @ UCLA by 7, lost @ MSU by 10 and lost @ Wisconsin by 12. Iowa thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but that won’t work here vs the Cats who are #1 in the country in offensive turnover percentage. They don’t give games away. NW scores the majority of their points inside the arc (36th in percentage of points from 2 point land) and that’s Iowa’s weakness ranking 15th in the Big 10 defending inside the 3 point line. Neither team is a great rebounding team so no advantage there. Only 63 possessions expected in this game per KenPom will make it tough for Iowa to win by a large margin. NW has actually won 2 of the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams and the Hawkeyes 2 wins were by 1 and 7 points. We expect Northwestern to come out with a chip on their shoulder in this one after their embarrassing loss earlier this week. Let’s take the generous points.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7 over UC San Diego, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET - We were on UC San Diego when these two met back in early January and picked up a solid win. We’re flipping the script here and grabbing Hawaii at home as things have changed quite drastically since that game. Since that win, UCSD simply hasn’t played well. They have a record of 4-5 SU (2-7 ATS) since beating Hawaii at home and 3 of their 4 wins have come vs 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the Big West (per KenPom). The Tritons have actually lost 4 games outright as a favorite since their win over Hawaii. They nearly lost another game as a favorite on Thursday night when they played host to Long Beach State who has a record of 8-16 on the season. UCSD won that game by 3 points but only led for 32% of the game and LBSU played without their leading scorer Sykes who averages 18 PPG. The Rainbows sit in 2nd place in the Big West 1 game behind UC Irvine, who they beat at home and lost in OT on the road. They are 13-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming vs Arizona State. They are also in the much better situational spot here as the Rainbows have had a full week off since winning @ Long Beach State last Saturday while UCSD played on Thursday night then had to make the long trip to the islands to play just 48 hours later. Narrowing the stats down to conference games only, Hawaii ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. They have a points per possession margin of +13 per 100 possessions and UC San Diego has a negative PPP margin per 100 possessions. The one thing that can cause Hawaii’s offense issues are defensive teams that create a high percentage of turnovers. The Tritons are not that team as they rank dead last in the Big West at creating turnovers. UCSD doesn’t get to the FT line very often and relies heavily on making 3 pointers which will be an issue here vs a UH defense that ranks 3rd in the nation allowing just 27% shooting from beyond the arc. Hawaii has been waiting for this rematch and they are rested and ready to go. Rainbows by double digits.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:40PM ET - This is going to be a battle between depleted rosters as both teams have key contributors out for tonight’s contest. Of the two teams, the Lakers are in much better shape. Los Angeles will be without Luka tonight but the Warriors look like a MASH unit with both Curry brothers out, Jimmy Butler is lost for the season, Porzingis is not ready to suit up and Podziemski is listed as questionable. The Lakers also have Austin Reaves back in the lineup after missing extended time so he can pick up the scoring void left by Luka. Reaves scored 35 points in limited action in the Lakers last game versus the 76ers. L.A. has won two straight and 7 of their last ten games. In that 10-game stretch they have the 9th best Net rating in the NBA and the impressive part is that 8 of those 10 games were on the road. Golden State is more pretender than contender and have a 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games with the 15th rated Net rating. The Lakers played well against the red hot Sixers the other night with Luka missing the majority of that game after getting injured. Golden State’s defense is not as good as their reputation ranking 18th in opponents FG%, allowing 47% on the season. That will be a problem against the best shooting team in the NBA as the Lakers check in with a team FG% of 49.9%. The Lakers are the much healthier team here and should win this home over the Warriors by 8+ points.

#792 ASA PLAY ON California +3.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tough situation for the Tigers who are on the 2nd leg of back to back road games on the West Coast after squeaking out a 2 point win @ Stanford on Wednesday night as a 3.5 point favorite. Now Clemson is laying the same number (opened -3.5) in a tougher situation vs a better team (Cal ranks 20 spots higher than Stanford and beat them on the road by 12 points). Clemson has faced the 17th rated strength of schedule (out of 18 teams) in ACC games which definitely plays a factor in their 9-1 league record (2nd place). Despite their conference record, KenPom’s power ratings have the Tigers as the 6th best team in the conference. They’ve had a cakewalk, so to speak on the road, with their 5 road games in ACC play coming against Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Stanford who are all below .500 in the ACC and have a combined record of 13-37 in league play. The Bears have won 4 of their last 5, including a solid win here over North Carolina, and they are at home for the 2nd straight game after beating Georgia Tech here on Wednesday. The Bears are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 30) and while Clemson’s overall defensive numbers are very good, they do allow opponents to hit 37% of their triples on the road. This is a huge home game for Cal (17-6 record) as it’s their last chance for a signature win as they try and push their way into the NCAA tourney. The remainder of their ACC opponents all currently have record below .500 in league play. This smells like a good spot for a potential upset and we’ll take the points.

#648 ASA PLAY ON Marquette -2 over Butler, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Marquette sits tied for last place in the Big East with a 3-9 record, but they’ve been playing much better and at home they’ve been very solid. There is a reason they are favored in this game despite their record. They are facing a Butler team who just lost in double OT @ Providence, the other team that sits on last place in the conference. The Bulldogs had 3 starters play 43 plus minutes in that loss and were already thin with starting guard Azavier Robinson missing the game with a wrist injury. It doesn’t look like he’ll be back for this one either. While Butler was battling in double OT on the road just a few days ago, Marquette was resting at home having not played since last Saturday. At home, the Golden Eagles have won 3 of their last 4 topping Creighton, Providence, and Xavier while losing a tight 3 point game vs Villanova, the 3rd highest rated team in the league behind UConn and St Johns. This is a revenger for Marquette who lost @ Butler on January 23rd by 11 points. The Eagles shot only 18% from beyond the arc in that game and got “homered” a bit by the official with the Bulldogs going to the FT line 31 times (making 23) while Marquette attempted just 14 FT’s (making 9). Butler is just 1-6 on the road this season and their defense ranks 10th out of 11 teams in efficiency in conference play allowing nearly 1.20 PPP. On the road they allow opponents to shoot almost 50% and average 86 PPG. The Golden Eagles are averaging over 80 PPG at home and they’ve beaten Butler 6 of the last 7 times in Milwaukee. We like the rested home team to get their revenge in this one.

#888 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago +3.5 over Belmont, Friday at 9 PM ET - Belmont is on top of the Missouri Valley with an 11-2 record but we think they have a great chance to get picked off in this game. They are 5-1 on the road in conference play but they’ve been really close to losing more than once vs some lower tier teams in the league. They lost @ Indiana State who is rated as the 2nd worst team in the league per KenPom, barely beat Evansville by 5 (worst team in the MVC), beat Drake by 2, and Valpo by 1, all teams rated lower than UIC. 4 of their 5 conference road wins have come by 5 points or less. Illinois Chicago (8-5 in the conference) just had their 8 game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday @ Murray State. We were on the Racers in that game as it set up perfectly with Murray in must win mode at home after losing 4 in a row. Different situation here as we now get the Flames off a loss facing an overvalued Belmont team that has won 8 in a row. In their first meeting this year @ Belmont, UIC gave them everything they could handle in an 87-84 loss. The Bruins shot 58% overall and 52% from deep in that game yet still only led for 26% of the game and trailed by 13 in the 2nd half. Even with that, the game went to the wire. The Flames controlled the offensive glass in that game and had 5 fewer turnovers. That shouldn’t change here as UIC leads the conference in offensive rebounding percentage and Belmont is dead last in defensive rebounding percentage. The Flames defense also creates turnovers at almost a 21% rated (#1 in the league) and Belmont ranks 269th in offensive turnover percentage. If it’s tight late, the Bruins are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country making only 67%. We expect a close game with UIC having a solid shot at the upset so we’ll grab the points.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - The Mavericks made some big trade noise yesterday and made a statement of building around Cooper Flagg through the draft in the future when they sent Anthony Davis to Washington. Tonight, they will have a reduced roster as many players will not be available, plus PJ Washington is out and starting center Gafford is questionable. The Spurs are coming off a game last night but only one player on the roster played more than 30 minutes and they’re as deep as any team in the league. Dallas is mired in a 5-game losing streak and a big reason why is their regression in shooting percentages at 43.9% over that stretch which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. They are not a good 3PT shooting team to begin with at 34.2% (26th) and have been even worse in that same stretch of games shooting just 31.9% from deep. San Antonio has the 6th best efficiency differential in the NBA at plus +5.1 and are only 1 of four teams in the entire NBA that rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Spurs are capable of winning on the road as they’ve shown this season with a 15-10 SU away record. We like San Antonio by 9+ points.

#788 ASA PLAY ON UNC Wilmington -4.5 over William & Mary, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 CAA rivals met on January 22nd and we were on William & Mary at home at they picked up the 77-70 win as a 2 point favorite. That was UNCW’s first and only loss so far this conference season. We’ll turn the tables here and take the Seahawks at home in revenge mode. UNCW struggled shooting in that game as we expected they would hitting just 33% overall and only 29% from 3 point land. They averaged just 0.94 PPP in that game well below their season average of 1.12 PPP. The one thing UNCW did well in that game was they dominated the boards (+10) and they were +8 on the offensive glass. We don’t expect that to change as they are the much better rebounding team ranking top 50 nationally on the offensive and defensive glass compared to W&M who ranks 313th in offensive rebounding percentage and 265th on the defensive boards. We look for them to shoot much better at home where they are 11-1 this season and facing a William & Mary defense that allows opponents to shoot 47% on the road while allowing 83 PPG. Speaking of on the road, the Tribe are also a completely different team away from home offensively. They average 10 PPG fewer on the road while averaging only 1.00 PPP (they average 1.17 PPP at home). They are 0-4 on the road in conference play and we like UNCW to get the win and cover tonight.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +5 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This game has extra meaning for the coaches as Rockets head man Ime Udoka was the Celtics coach before getting fired for inappropriate behavior prior to the 2022 season. Joe Mazzulla was named interim coach before getting the gig full time. The Celtics made a big trade yesterday and landed center Vucevic of the Bulls for Simons who didn’t fit in Boston’s rotation. We mention that as there aren't more trade rumors swirling around these locker rooms, so we don’t have to worry about those distractions with our wager tonight. Boston grades out higher in our power ratings than the Rockets and would be favored on a neutral court yet are getting a generous +5.5 points here. A big reason is the fact that they played last night in Dallas. But no team in the NBA is better than Boston when playing without rest. The Celtics have gone 35-13 SU under Mazzulla when playing without rest and have an average margin of victory in those games of +9.4ppg. That’s way too big of a sample size to be a fluke. The Rockers were recently favored by -3.5 at home vs. the Wolves, -4.5 and -2.5 at home against the Spurs which tell you enough about this number. Boston is 16-10 SU on the road this season with the second best average MOV of +6.8ppg, behind only the Thunder. The Rockets are 17-4 SU on their home floor but the average MOV in those games is +7.6 which barely gets a cover in this one. Even if KD suits up for this game, we like the Dog and the points.

#306554 ASA PLAY ON Austin Peay -4 over Lipscomb, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Austin Peay sits in first place in the ASUN Conference with a 9-1 record and Lipscomb is in 2nd place at 8-2. Lipscomb has played the easiest schedule in the ASUN and their 2 road losses have both come on the road vs Stetson and Jacksonville who are both below .500 in league play at 4-6. This Bisons are coming off a tight 100-94 road win @ North Florida (who is 3-7 in the conference) in a game they shot 61% overall and 43% from deep yet only led for 38% of the game vs one of the worst teams in the conference. Now they are on the road again, facing the best team in the conference, and it’s Lipscomb’s 3rd straight road game in the last 7 days. Austin Peay is 9-0 at home this season and their only conference loss was a 4 point setback at Lipscomb so needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Governors have 6 losses this season (18-6 record) with all of their losses coming vs teams ranked in the top 160 per KenPom. They played top 65 teams Ole Miss and Tulsa very tough on the road losing by 7 and 9 points respectively. Lipscomb has 8 losses on the year and 3 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 225 including a loss @ Stetson who currently ranks 320th. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot with over 46% of their shot attempts coming from deep (36th most nationally) but facing a very good defense on the road in this one. AP is the best defensive team in the ASUN ranking #1 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, defensive turnover rate, and they are 2nd defending the arc. On offense they are averaging 88 PPG at home this year while giving up only 65 PPG. Lipscomb’s defense has been poor away from home allowing 83 PPG and their PPG margin on the road is -7. We like Austin Peay to get the win and cover at home on Wednesday night.

#726 ASA PLAY ON Wichita St -8 over Charlotte, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte sits tied for 1st place in the AAC with a 7-2 record which is 2 games ahead of Wichita (5-4 record), yet the Shockers are favored by almost double digits here? Hmm? First of all, Charlotte has played the easiest schedule in the conference to date by a fairly wide margin. Of their 9 conference games, only 2 have come vs the top 5 in the AAC (power rating per KenPom) and BOTH were at home. They lost to Tulsa by 12 at home and beat this Wichita State team at home 104-100 in double OT. The Shockers were favored by -5.5 on the road in that game which gives this home number of -8 for Wichita some solid value. Line usually moves 6 to 8 points from home to road and this one is only 2.5 points off the first meeting. I that game, the Shockers blew an 18 point 2nd half lead and Charlotte led for only 23% of the game. The 49ers NEVER led in the 2nd half and hit a 3 pointer with 5 seconds remaining to tie the game and send it to OT. Wichita dominated the glass grabbing 56% of their missed shots (+11 rebounds overall) and had fewer turnovers. Charlotte attempted 38 foul shots (just 22 for Wichita) made 29 FT’s to just 18 for the Shockers which was a key difference. Needless to say the Shockers have been waiting for this home rematch. While Charlotte has faced the easiest schedule to date, Wichita State has faced the toughest and they rank as the 3rd best team in the AAC (Charlotte is 9th per KenPom). These teams are very similar offensive with both averaging 1.14 PPP (both top 100) but the Shockers have a big edge on defense. The 49ers rank 11th in the AAC in defensive efficiency and 276th nationally (Wichita is 106th in defensive efficiency). They also turn the ball over at a much higher rate than the Shockers (249th offensive turnover percentage for Charlotte and 52nd for Wichita). We’re getting the better rebounding team, who is better defensively, and turns the ball over at a much lower rated in this one. Wichita gets their revenge tonight with a double digit win.

#658 ASA PLAY ON USC +1.5 over Indiana, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Rough situation for IU who is playing their 2nd of back to back games on the West Coast and coming off an upset win @ UCLA. That game went to double OT with the Hoosiers pulling out a 98-97 win. They are not a deep team and 3 of their 5 starters played 44+ minutes in that win and they were missing starter Conerway (11 PPG - 3rd leading scorer). He’s most likely out again here but if he does play he won’t be 100% with a bad ankle. His loss could be key here for an IU team that logged big minutes on Saturday @ UCLA. It’s also IU’s 5th game in 15 days and 4 of those have come on the road. Their only other 2 true road wins came @ Maryland and @ Rutgers who have a combined record of 3-18 in Big 10 play. USC is off a 3 point home win vs Rutgers which looks like a close one but the Trojans led by 19 with just 14:00 minutes remaining and took their foot off the gas and allowed the Knights back in the game. Their previous 2 games were very solid as they beat Wisconsin on the road and lost by 1 point @ Iowa. This team is playing well right now and they are finally at full strength with starting PG Woods, who has played in less than half of their games, playing well and starting wing Arenas having played in the last 4 games after missing the first 18 games of the season. The Hoosiers live at the arc with 52% of their shots coming from deep (8th most in the nation) and USC defends the 3 point line very well allowing opponents to make only 29% (14th nationally). IU also fouls a lot with 23% of opponents points coming from the FT line and USC gets to the stripe a lot with 25% of their points coming from the FT line (16th nationally). This one sets up nicely for USC and we’ll grab the Trojans.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 10 PM ET - The Sixers lineup took a hit with the announcement that Paul George is suspended for a drug violation. I wonder if they’ll ever drug test LeBron? George had been playing well and it looked like the 76ers were rounding into form. Philly was playing well with a 6-4 SU record in their last 10 games, but a closer look reveals 9 of those ten were at home. Not only that, but only one of those six wins came against a team with a winning record. The Sixers went 10-7 SU in January with an average +/- of +2.4ppg. The Clippers have flipped the switch and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league. L.A. had won 16 of their last twenty games and then were coming off a loss in Denver most recently. They responded immediately last night with a big win at Phoenix and I expect them to ride momentum from the win over the Suns and parlay it into a home win over the Sixers too! The Clippers had the 9th best Net rating in the NBA in the month of January at +3.3 and were 6-1 SU in the month at home with an average MOV of +7.7ppg. L.A. They already started the new month with a blowout win and that was even without Harden (personal) who might be back here. Either way I like the home team here off the 24-point margin easy blowout win last night. Lay it with the Clippers.

#876 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -4.5 over Kansas, Monday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for Tech. They are coming off a loss as a favorite @ UCF on Saturday while Kansas had a huge home win over BYU on the same day. It was an absolute letdown spot for TT going on the road after upsetting Houston at home and this huge game with KU on deck. The Red Raiders have been very good to us cashing this month at home vs high level opponents BYU and Houston. Their offense has been simply outstanding ranking 9th nationally in efficiency, 21st in eFG%, 13th in 3 point FG% while averaging 84 PPG. At home those offensive numbers all rise including scoring moving up to 90 PPG. This team put up 90 points in their most recent home game vs a Houston team that leads the nation allowing 61 PPG! They have put up at least 1.20 PPP in 4 of their last 5 games including a massive number of 1.38 vs Houston and they are averaging 1.25 PPP at home this season. That’s the 18th best home offensive efficiency number in the country this season. Kansas is off an 8 point home win vs BYU (Tech beat BYU by 13 a few weeks ago). They now go on the road where their offensive efficiency numbers drop from 1.16 PPP at home to just 1.08 on the road and their average score on the road is 76-76 so a dead even PPG margin (not great). Their top player, Darryn Peterson, has been in and out of the line up all season with severe cramping issues and sat out the 2nd half vs BYU on Saturday. Just 48 hours later we doubt he’s able to play much in this one. The Jayhawks are just 3-3 in true road games this season and their 2 Big 12 road wins came @ KSU and @ Colorado, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-13 in league play. Texas Tech, on the other hand, is a perfect 11-0 at home with an average margin of victory at +20 PPG and all of their Big 12 home wins with the exception of 1 (vs Houston) have come by double digits. Tech roasted Kansas by 29 points here last year and while we wouldn’t anticipate that type of blowout here, we do expect a comfortable win and cover.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:10 pm ET - Two of the bigger markets square off Sunday in a West vs. East showdown when the Lakers travel to New York to face the Knicks. This will be L.A.’s 7th straight road game and it comes against a Knicks team that has won 5 straight. The Lakers have won 4 of their six road games on this trip but they lost to the two teams of the Knicks caliber (Cavs and Clippers). Los Angeles beat a bad Washington team most recently by 32-points but had lost prior to that game by 30 in Cleveland. The Lakers have an impressive SU road record of 17-10 SU but surprisingly have a negative scored margin despite the winning record. A big part of that is their strength of schedule on the road. New York on the other hand is 19-6 SU on their home court with the second highest average scoring differential of +10.5ppg in the Garden. The Knicks went through a mini-slump and lost 4 straight games but since, have ripped off 5 straight wins and all but one of those came by double-digits. These are two big brands with some of the biggest stars in the game, but the Knicks are significantly better with the 5th best overall efficiency differential compared to the Lakers 17th. This line is light according to our metrics and we will side with the home team Knicks in this one.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -12.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 3:40pm ET - The Bucks season is swirling down the drain as we speak with the trade talks surrounding the entire team and players potentially being dealt with Giannis. The root of the problem in Milwaukee though is GM Horst and head coach Doc Rivers. That is another story I can’t go into right now. As for today, at first glance this seems like a high number for Boston to cover but in reality, it’s not. The Celtics were just favored by 12-points at home against the Kings and even -10.5 recently versus the Pacers so this double-digit number is not out of line. The Bucks were also recently a +10.5 point dog in Philadelphia, lost by 17-points and the Sixers aren’t as good as the Celtics are right now. Boston has the second-best average scoring margin in the month of January overall and the 2nd best Net rating. The Bucks will have problems containing the Celtics offense in this one as they allow the 3rd most 3PT attempt rate at 43.5% and Boston takes the 3rd most 3-pointers in the league. Milwaukee’s defense overall isn’t good ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.173-points per possession on the season. Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league averaging 1.211PPP. The Bucks offense is even worse, ranking 23rd in oEFF and will have a tough time scoring against the C’s 12th ranked defense. Milwaukee is reliant on their 3PT shooting but the Celtics defend the arc as well as anyone in the NBA.

#823 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -13.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Purdue is off 3 straight losses @ UCLA by 1, vs Illinois by 6, and Indiana by 5. The Shot Quality scored for each of those games had the Boilers winning so it’s not as if they are playing terrible basketball. Head coach Matt Painter lit into his team after their most recent loss and was questioning their effort. You can bet this team will bring everything they have for this game. They get a reprieve facing a 1-8 Maryland team whose only Big 10 win was vs Penn State. Since losing their leading scorer and rebounder, Pharrel Payne, to an injury in mid December the Terps are 2-7 with their closest loss being 8 points. All 8 of their Big 10 losses have come by double digits. When stepping up in class vs the top teams in the conference, Maryland has lost vs Michigan St by 43, Illinois by 19, and Michigan by 18. Their average loss margin in Big 10 play is -19.5 points. In conference play they rank 17th in offensive efficiency (out of 18), 16th in defensive efficiency, 16th in 3 point FG% and dead last in FT% making only 66% from the stripe. Purdue ranks 2nd in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency, 8th nationally in FG% and they average 83 PPG. They should shred this Maryland defense that ranks 323rd in defensive FG% and they allow 79 PPG. On the other end, the Terps rank 351st (out of 365) in FG% and they only make 23 shots per gam on average (341st). They’ll need to get to the FT line a lot (and make them which they aren’t great at) but Purdue is very good at limiting opponents foul shots. Only 14% of opponents points come from the FT line (17th best in the country). If Purdue is focused, which we full expect them to be, this should be a runaway. We don’t lay points like this on the road very often but we think it’s warranted here.

#728 ASA PLAY ON San Diego -2 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - San Diego has a 10-13 record but they continue to be undervalued with a 13-8 ATS record and at home they are 9-2 ATS. They are 4-2 at home in WCC play with their only losses coming vs Gonzaga and Santa Clara who are 1st and 2nd in the standings and have a combined conference record of 18-1. They are catching the Beavers (9-14 ATS record) off a rare upset win @ Loyola Marymount on Wednesday and this will be OSU’s 3rd straight road game. In their upset win on Wednesday, the Beavs hit nearly 50% of their shots and over 40% from deep. We don’t expect the same results here as Oregon State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country making just 42% of their shots on the season (318th). They needed to shoot lights out in that 3 points win because they turned the ball over on nearly 25% of their possessions which has been a problem all season. OSU ranks 250th in offensive turnover percentage on the season and they are facing a San Diego defense that thrives on creating turnovers ranking top 35 in the country. The Toreros problem this year is when they face good rebounding teams they get overwhelmed on the boards. That won’t be the case here as Oregon State is a poor rebounding team as well ranking 335th in offensive rebound percentage and 281st in defensive rebound percentage. At home San Diego is shooting 40% from deep and averaging 82 PPG. They should do well offensively vs an OSU team that is allowing 80 PPG on the road this season. On the other end of the court, the Beavers are only averaging 67 PPG on the road and we don’t think they can keep up in this game. San Diego has played the tougher schedule in WCC play yet they still have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers when compared to the Beavers. This line it too short and we’ll take advantage of it. San Diego gets the home win and cover.

#720 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Rough situation for Indiana coming off huge upset home win over arch rival Purdue on Tuesday and now making the long travel to the West Coast. The Hoosiers are 2-3 on the road in Big 10 play with their only 2 wins coming @ Rutgers and @ Maryland, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference along with Penn St. The Bruins have won 5 of their last 6 games and all 3 of their Big 10 losses came in long travel trips @ Iowa, @ Wisconsin, and @ Ohio State. UCLA is 12-0 at home and they’ve settled in nicely since coming back from their 2 long road trips going 3-0 since losing @ OSU. The UCLA defense has really stepped up as of late holding 4 of their last 6 opponents to 1.00 PPP or less since head coach Mick Cronin ripped into them after their loss @ Wisconsin. They now rank 3rd in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed and 2nd in 3 point FG% allowed (just 29%) which will be a big factor here as the Hoosiers shoot a lot of 3’s. In fact, over 53% of their shots have come from deep in conference play which is 2nd most in the league. At home the Bruins have been even better limiting opponents to just 26% from beyond the arc and IU hasn’t been great on the road making only 31% of their triples. UCLA hasn’t allowed more than 67 points in any of their Big 10 home games and they are averaging 81 PPG at home this season on 50% shooting. There is a chance UCLA’s Skyy Clark comes back for this game (13 PPG) after missing 7 straight. However, we are handicapping this game as if he will not play and if he does it’s simply a bonus. This is an unfamiliar venue for IU as they have not played @ Pauley Pavilion since 2007. The Hoosiers are shooting just 42% on the road this year and we think they’ll struggle to even get to that number here. We’ll lay the small number with the Bruins at home.

#648 ASA PLAY ON Arizona St +14.5 over Arizona, Saturday at 2 PM ET - ASU is having a disappointing season (11-10 record) but this is their Super Bowl. The Devils have been playing better basketball over the last week and they’ve already proven they can hang with the Wildcats. These 2 met a few weeks ago @ Arizona and the Cats came away with a tight 89-82 home win and Zona led by just 3 with under 1:00 remining in the game. ASU hung in the entire game, Arizona’s largest lead was 12 points, despite the Cats shooting 54% from the field and making 14 more FT’s compared to the Sun Devils. Head coach Bobby Hurley laid into his team after their home loss vs West Virginia on January 21st and they’ve since had very solid back to back efforts beating a good Cincinnati team by double digits and then losing by 3 @ UCF who has a 16-4 record. In that game @ UCF the Knights led for only 28% of the game and ASU actually led by 12 with just 6:00 minutes remaining. They should be on a 2-0 run heading into this one. Arizona is off a huge game @ BYU earlier this week and they picked up a 3 point win. Now on the 2nd of back to back road games and while they are undefeated, the Wildcats have played the easiest strength of schedule in the Big 12. They have played 4 conference road games and they only team they’ve beaten away from home by more than this spread (currently 15.5) was @ Utah (won by 19) who ranks as the worst team in the Big 12 by a fairly wide margin per KenPom. Arizona has beaten ASU in Tempe by more than 13 points just once in the last 12 meetings and the Sun Devils have covered 8 of their 12 games this year as an underdog (2-0 ATS as a home dog this season). We think ASU keeps this close similar to the first meeting and we’ll grab these generous points.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs 12pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets are catching +4.5 at home against the San Antonio Spurs early this afternoon tilt. San Antonio rolls in at 32-15, sitting pretty near the top of the West, but dig deeper and the shine fades: they've gone a middling 9-8 SU their last 17 games, alternating wins and losses over the past two weeks with setbacks to squads like Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans that aren’t playing near as well as the Hornets are right now. No back-to-back road wins since before the holidays, and while their road numbers look solid (15-9 SU away, +3.6 eDIFF on the road, +3.9 average scoring margin), that margin won't reliably cover a -4.5 spread against a red-hot Hornets. Meanwhile, the Hornets (21-28) are the hottest story in the East right now, riding a five-game win streak and leading the NBA in net rating for January. Their season eDIFF sits at +1.6 (12th league-wide), but over the last five? A blistering +17.6 eDIFF, second only to the Knicks. Charlotte's offense ranks fifth in 3P% at 37.3%, primed to exploit a Spurs perimeter D that's middle-of-the-pack (17th, allowing 36% from deep). The Hornets have covered in two of their last three as home dogs and we expect them to keep this game close throughout or win outright.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +1.5 over Michigan, Friday at 8 PM ET - These 2 are tied atop the Big 10 with 9-1 conference records. Michigan went through a stretch earlier in the season where they were destroying everyone. They have come back to earth. However, they continue to be overvalued despite losing 7 straight games ATS. They lost at home vs Wisconsin for their only setback this season but they’ve had some close calls as of late squeaking by Penn State on the road by 2 points and probably should have lost at home over the weekend vs an undermanned Nebraska team. The Huskers are obviously very good this year, but they had the flu bug running through the team over the weekend, were without 2 key starters who combined to average 26 PPG, and they still led @ Michigan for a whopping 91% of the game. The Wolverines got the benefit of the home court whistle as well making 19 FT’s to just 3 for Nebraska yet still didn’t lead at all in the 2nd half until just over 1:00 remaining in the game. Their road slate thus far in conference play has been extremely easy as they’ve faced Maryland, PSU, Oregon, and Washington and they didn’t cover any of those games. The Wolverines simply haven’t been playing as well as they were earlier and they are overdue for a loss. We think it comes here. MSU has nearly the same record 19-2 compared to 19-1 for Michigan, yet they are not getting the same respect being tabbed as a home underdog in this game (opening line was MSU +1.5). Their only 2 losses came by 6 points vs Duke and by 2 points @ Nebraska. The Spartans are 7-3 ATS as a dog since the start of last season and they’ve been a home dog just ONCE in Big 10 play since the start of the 2022 season and they covered that game vs Purdue. MSU is the best defense across the board in Big 10 play ranking 1st in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 2 point and 3 point FG% allowed. They are also the better rebounding team ranking 1st in defensive and 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage. Sparty is the better FT shooting team and they have better efficiency margins in league play (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). MSU has won 9 straight vs Michigan at the Breslin Center and their last loss in this series at home was back in 2017. We like Michigan State to win this one at home.

ASA NBA play on New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 7:30 p.m. ET - Injuries continue to wreck the Grizzlies — they're missing Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), Santi Aldama (knee), Brandon Clarke (calf), and Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) again, with Ty Jerome listed as doubtful (calf). That's a brutal hit to their backcourt, frontcourt depth, and interior presence. Memphis has dropped four straight, including a home loss to these same Pelicans just a week ago. Meanwhile, New Orleans is a bad team at 12-37, worst in the West, but they're showing signs of life. They've gone 2-1 in their last three straight up (the loss coming against the defending champs OKC Thunder), and over the last ten games they've won four while posting a more respectable net rating (18th league-wide) compared to Memphis sitting at 24th. The Pels attack the rim at an elite clip (No. 1 in frequency), which is bad news for a Grizzlies defense that's ranked 24th against rim attacks and 25th in three-point attempts allowed. Memphis loves post-ups (second in frequency), but without their bigs and Morant creating chaos, that identity gets neutralized quickly in NOLA's paint-focused scheme. The Pels shoot threes like they're allergic (dead last percentage), but they don't need to bomb from deep here — just keep pounding inside against a shorthanded, vulnerable Memphis frontcourt. Head-to-head, Grizz have taken two of three this season, but the latest meeting flipped the script with NOLA winning outright. This line feels light given Memphis' depletion and road struggles (1-5 SU road/neutral games). Pelicans cover the -2 at home.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Washington +13 over Illinois, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Rough spot for the Illini as they are coming off an upset win on the road @ Purdue and they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Nebraska in 3 days. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play (2-2 ATS) but they’ve faced a very easy slate already facing 3 of the league’s 5 lowest rated teams at home (Rutgers, Maryland, and Minnesota). They are 8-1 overall in conference play but they’ve faced the 16th most difficult slate out of 18 teams. 6 of their 8 conference wins have come by 11 points or less and the only 2 blowouts on their Big 10 resume were vs Rutgers and Maryland ranked 16th and 17th in the conference. Washington is 11-9 overall and 3-6 in Big 10 play but they’ve been competitive for the most part. 5 of their 6 conference losses have come by 10 points or less and they have a road win @ USC (3-1 ATS on Big 10 road). Their 3 road losses in Big 10 play came vs high level teams @ Nebraska, @ Purdue, and @ Indiana, all by 10 points or less. The Huskies are averaging 75 PPG on the road in Big 10 games and their schedule has laid out nicely entering this game with 4 of their last 5 coming at home and they’ve only played 1 road game since January 7th. The Illini are still missing starting PG and team leader Boswell (missed last 2 games) which will affect them here. Freshman Wagler stepped in vs Purdue and was 9 of 11 from the field and 11 of 13 from the FT line and put up a ridiculous 46 points in that wins. We expect him to come back to earth here and wouldn’t be surprised if Illinois sleep walks through this one as they are waiting for their huge game on Sunday vs Nebraska. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Hofstra -4.5 over Charleston, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Hofstra as they sit 2 games behind Charleston in the CAA standings. Hofstra started the conference season with 4 straight wins and they’ve since lost 4 in a row, 3 coming on the road to sit in 4th place at 4-4. Charleston is 6-2 but they’ve played the 11th easiest strength of schedule in CAA play thus far (Hofstra’s SOS is 3rd) and they are just 1-2 on the road in league games. Their only road win in conference play was @ Elon by 4 points in a game the Cougars made 13 more FT’s yet it still went to the wire. That game was back in December and they’ve since lost their 2 road games @ Towson and @ Stony Brook. Despite their 4 straight losses, Hofstra still rates per KenPom as the best team in the CAA and 114th in the country. This team is much better than their record. They are 13-8 on the year overall and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or less with 7 of those coming on the road. Despite playing an overall strength of schedule nearly 100 spots higher than Charleston, Hofstra has the better straight FG% numbers both offensive and defensively. They are the much better offense efficiency wise and the 2 defense are almost dead even when it comes to efficiency. The Pride should have a big advantage from beyond the arc where they shoot 38% on the year (20th in the country) while Charleston only makes 31% (307th). They also hit 77% of their FT’s if they need to ice this one late. Our power ratings have the Pride as a 7 point favorite in this game and we’re getting some nice value with their losing streak playing a factor and Charleston has won 8 of their last 10 which has also pushed this number lower than it should be. Absolute must win for Hofstra and we’ll lay it.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Washington St -1.5 over Seattle, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Revenger for Washington State who lost @ Seattle back on December 30th by a final score of 69-55. The Cougars shot well below their season averages across the board in that making only 30% of their shots (they average 47%), just 15% of their 3’s (they average 36%) and only 57% of their FT’s (they average 73%). Wazzu dominated the boards in that game gathering 50% of their misses and totaling 50 boards to just 23 for Seattle. We don’t expect that to change in this game as the Redhawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation ranking outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Expect the Cougars to handle the glass again giving them multiple extra possessions. What we do expect to change in Washington State’s terrible shooting from the first match up. At home they hit over 48% on the season, 37% from deep while averaging 80 PPG. Seattle’s offense has been poor ranking 11th in the West Coast Conference (out of 12 teams) averaging a poor 0.93 PPP in league play. They are also 11th in eFG%, 10th in 3 point FG%, and making only 69% of the FT’s in WCC play. Seattle has been held under 60 points in nearly half of the WCC games (4) and they are 0-4 on the road in conference play. On the other hand, since their loss vs Seattle in which they scored only 55 points, Wazzu has scored at least 78 points in 6 of 7 games. The only team to hold them below during that stretch was Gonzaga which is also the Cougars only home conference loss this season. These 2 have met just 5 times since 1990 (all from 2017 to current) and the home team has won all 5 meetings. We like Washington State to get the win here.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8pm ET - Scheduling and rest will play an important role in tonight’s outcome between these two Eastern Conference foes. Philly is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days. Milwaukee had their most recent game cancelled with poor weather so they’ve had 4 full days off going into tonight. The Bucks have covered 6 of their last 8 in that scenario dating back to 2023. Granted, the Bucks will be without Giannis tonight who is expected to miss the next 6 weeks with an injury but there is still enough talent on this roster to keep tonight’s game within double-digits. Milwaukee is 11-12 ATS on the road this season with an average negative margin of -4.9ppg, good enough for a cover in this one. The Sixers are 11-14 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of -0.8ppg. Philadelphia doesn’t shoot it great at 45.6% (26th) which makes it difficult to cover big numbers. In fact, the 76ers have only been double-digit chalks 5 times this season. Within the past 2 weeks the 76ers were -7 at home against the Pacers and won by 9-points. The Bucks without Giannis grade out better than Indiana. The Bucks have been double-digit dogs just 3 times this season and they’ve covered all three. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8:10 pm ET - Why are the Lakers favored here? This line makes absolutely no sense given the current play of both teams. Chicago has won 4 straight games and 6 of their last eight. Included in that run are impressive wins over the Clippers, T’Wolves and most recently the Celtics. In fact, in the games against the Celtics on Saturday the Bulls were +3.5-points at home and Boston grades out significantly higher in our power rating than the Lakers. Chicago has the 3rd best average scoring differential in the NBA over the past 5-games at +11.0ppg. In that same stretch of games, they have the best overall eFG% at 60.9% and tonight they face a Lakers D that is 25th in defensive net rating on the season. L.A. ranks 27th in opponents’ FG% allowed at 48.6% and is 25th in 3PT% D. The Bulls are top 10 in both overall team FG% for the year and 3PT%. The Lakers are coming off a win in Dallas on Saturday which was a meaningful game to Luka against his old mates. The Lakers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine road games and the 3 wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Mavs, Nuggets w/out Jokic and Pelicans. Chicago has won 7 of their last eight at home. Back the Bulls in this one.

Italian Serie A - #210337 ASA PLAY ON Udinese Goal Line Pick'em (-110) over Hellas Verona, Monday at 2:45 PM ET - We go with the goal line here as that means a draw would be a push for our bet.  Of course we make this bet expecting the win for Udinese but it is nice to have that extra safety net of a draw being a push.  Hellas Verona is struggling badly and now just lost their best playmaker on offense too as Geovane ended up signing with Napoli!  The hosts are mired in a 6-match winless run with 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 matches.  Udinese is off a loss to a tough Inter Milan side but this followed a stretch in which they lost only twice in six matches and they are going to take advantage of facing a struggling team here.  The home team has only won once in the last seven meetings between these clubs and we see that trend continuing here as the slide for Hellas Verona is made even worse after losing Geovane.  Road team gets the win!  Bet Udinese on the goal line. 

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 9 :10pm ET - Even without Kawhi Leonard we like the Clippers minus the points over the reeling Nets. These two teams are heading in direct opposite directions right now with the Clippers on a 14-3 SU streak, the Nets are 2-12 SU their last 14. L.A. is 7-1 SU their last eight at home with a net rating of +9.5, the 3rd best differential in the NBA over that span of games. The Clippers an eFG% of 55.9% in that same 8-game stretch and have been shooting lights out. When it comes to Net ratings, only the Jazz have a worse number than the Nets who are minus -10.2 over their last 15 games. Brooklyn has an average loss margin of -9.9ppg over that same 15-game period. The Clippers 8-1 SU streak at home is really impressive when you consider 7 of those eight wins all came by 8 or more points. Even without Leonard tonight we like the Clippers to notch a double-digit win over the struggling Nets.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 5:30 pm ET - The Warriors season took a significant hit when they lost Jimmy Butler for the season to a knee injury. Contrary to what you might think, the immediate impact of his loss has come on the defensive end of the court as they’ve given up 145 and 123 points in their last two games. Those numbers came against two teams that rank in the bottom of the league in offensive net ratings (Dallas, Toronto). Minnesota is mired in their own losing streak that currently stands at 4 games, but in their defense three of those came against a red hot Bulls team, the Spurs and the Rockets. The Wolves are the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and rank 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.136PPP. In fact, the Wolves are one of only three teams in the NBA to rank top 10 in both oEFF and dEFF. Not only will we see a continued decline in the Warriors defensive statistics, but they’ll suffer offensively too without Butlers 20ppg and 5.6rpg. Minnesota clearly gets up for games against the Warriors as they’ve now won 5 straight in the series and all of those W’s have come by 5 or more points. Lay it here with Minnesota.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - The Broncos lost starting QB Nix to an ankle injury in the Divisional round and he is done for the season. They now turn to back up Jarrett Stidham who is a 6 year NFL veteran and has been the back up for 3 years in Denver so he’s more than familiar with head coach Sean Payton’s system. We like the fact that the Bronco staff has a full week to get him ready and set up a gameplan and the New England defense really doesn’t know what they are preparing to face. This line has moved too much based on that injury in our opinion. Denver was going to be a 1.5 to 2 point favorite vs New England with Nix at QB and now +4.5? That’s nearly a TD move and let’s face it, Nix is a pretty average QB ranking 25th in completion percentage, 25th in passer rating, and 15th in QBR. This team leans on their defense and that hasn’t changed. They rank #1 in YPP allowed, #2 in YPG allowed and rushing YPG allowed, and #3 in scoring. Denver is also the best pass rushing team in the NFL (sacks per game and sack percentage) and the Pats have really struggled with that so far in the playoffs. After facing a number of poor defenses this year due to their light schedule (worst in the NFL), New England finally faced 2 high level defenses in the Chargers and Texans in the playoffs (the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season) and allowed 10 combined sacks and 16 TFL’s in those games. They’ll struggle to keep QB Maye clean in this one and running on this Denver team is tough as they allow just 96 YPG rushing (2nd in the NFL). Last week Maye had only 168 yards passing and the Pats totaled only 248 yards on 3.9 YPP but benefited from 5 Houston turnovers including a pick 6. The Patriots now go on the road for the first time in the playoffs with Maye making his first ever playoff road start vs one of the best defenses in the league. NFL playoff home dogs of 4 points or more are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years and home teams in the AFC Championship round are 30-15 SU. The Broncos also have an extra day of rest playing last Saturday (Pats played on Sunday) and while that may not seem like a huge deal, teams with the extra rest in the Championship round are 27-17 SU and if they are at home that improves to 21-7. We think this game goes to the wire and we like Denver and the points at home.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Idaho -2 over Portland State, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Portland State sits in first place in the Big Sky with a perfect 6-0 record. Problem is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference having faced only 1 of the top 5 teams in the league per KenPom and that was a 3 point home win vs Northern Colorado. The overall combined conference record of the teams they’ve beaten in the Big Sky this year is just 12-28. They have 3 road wins in conference play but all have come vs the bottom half of the league with 2 coming in OT and the other by 4 points. Their most recent game came @ Eastern Washington on Thursday night which was a 4 point Portland State win vs an EWU team that has a 4-15 record. The Vikings will now be on the road again taking on Idaho less than 48 hours after playing @ Eastern Washington. Idaho is off a home win on Thursday so they are in a much better situational spot playing their 2nd straight home game. The Vandals are 7-1 at home this year including a win over Montana State who is rated as the best team in the Big Sky per KenPom. Their only home loss came vs Montana, who is 5-2 in the league, in a game the Grizzlies shot 50% from the field compared to 39% for Idaho and the Vandal made only 4 of 23 from beyond the arc. Uncharacteristic of a team that shoots over 50% and home and makes 41% of their triples. In that loss home loss, Idaho was a 4.5 point favorite vs a Montana team that actually ranks a few spots higher than this Portland State team yet they are laying a lighter number here. Value is on Idaho in this game. The Vikings are overvalued because of their conference record and taking a look over their entire season they only have 1 win vs a team ranked in the top 200 (Idaho is 189th). We’ll take the Vandals at home in this one.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We like taking a strong look at very good teams coming off a loss and that’s what we have here with Purdue. The Boilers lost @ UCLA 69-67 on Tuesday in a game where the Bruins shot 57% from the field (45% for Purdue) and 45% from beyond the arc (26% for Purdue). Even with the big advantage in shooting percentages, the Bruins led for only 24% of the game and needed a 3 pointer with just 8 seconds left to get the win. The Boilers are now back at home where they are 10-1 this season (only loss to Iowa St) and 39-3 since the start of the 2023 season. Since the start of the 2021 season, when Purdue is at home and coming off a loss the previous game they are 12-1 SU winning by an average margin of +18 PPG and 9 of those 12 wins have come by double digits. They are facing an Illinois team that has won 8 in a row but will be shorthanded in this game. They just lost their starting PG Boswell (14 PPG) who is not only their veteran leader but also one of the better defensive guards in the Big 10. He injured his hand in practice leading up to their most recent game at home vs Maryland and will be out at least a month. The Illini were lucky to be at home and facing one of the worst teams in the Big 10 on Wednesday and they picked up a win. Now on the road in this situation without Boswell will make it very tough. Without Boswell, they really don’t have a true point guard with any experience on the roster which will make it very tough containing Purdue’s Braden Smith, one of the top PG’s in the country. This is a revenge game from last year as the Illini took the only meeting (in Champaign) by a final score of 88-80. Since the start of the 2009 season, these 2 Big 10 rivals have met 11 times in West Lafayette with the Boilermakers winning 10 of those games. We’ll lay the small number with Purdue at home on Saturday.

#782 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +1.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Texas Tech continues to be undervalued in our opinion and they are a very dangerous team, especially at home. We were on Tech last weekend at home vs a high level BYU team and the Red Raiders coasted to a 14 point win. Tech was a 3.5 point favorite in that game and here they are getting points at home vs a Houston team that is only ranked 10 spots higher than BYU per KenPom. These 2 already met this season @ Houston earlier this monthwith the Cougars winning a tight one 69-65. The Cougs led for only 37% of that game a thome and actually trailed for 10 of the final 12 minutes of that game. Houston was favored by 7 to 7.5 in that game so this one should be a pick-em or Tech -1 in our opinion (and based on our power ratings). The Raiders are 15-4 on the season with all of their losses coming away from home (road or neutral) vs high level opponents (Houston, Purdue, Illinois, and Arkansas). They are 10-0 at home this season and 25-3 here since the start of last season. Houston is 17-1 but this will easily be their toughest game of the season in our opinion. They’ve only played 2 true road games on the year @ Cincinnati and @ Baylor who both rank outside the top 45 per KenPom. The Red Raiders are the better shooting team ranking 29th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG% while Houston ranks 147th and 166th respectively in those 2 key stats. Defensively, Houston has better defensive numbers, however Tech has jumped into the top 30 in defensive efficiency playing great on that end of the court over their last 8 games. The Raiders have now held 8 straight opponents below their season offensive efficiency averages and they held the Cougars to 1.04 PPP in their first meeting in Houston, well below their average of 1.23 PPP. Texas Tech already has high level wins this season over Duke and BYU and we expect them to pull the “upset” on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10pm ET - I knew this was a bad number immediately and the Heat shouldn’t be favored on the road against the Blazers and to no surprise the line moved quickly to Portland as the favorite. The Blazers are playing well right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games overall and they’ve won 7 of their last eight at home. Portland has the 8th best Net rating of +5.3 in the NBA over that 10-games span. On the flip side, the Heat are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games and they have the 26th worst Net rating in that time frame of -5.9. Miami has been even worse on the road in recent games with a 1-4 SU record their last 5 away from home with a negative Net rating of minus -13.7. Earlier this season the Heat were +3.5 points at home against the Blazers and won 136-131. This time around it’s the home team Blazers that notch the win.

#792 ASA PLAY ON William & Mary +1.5 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UNCW has an impressive 17-2 overall record (5-0 in the CAA) but they are drastically overvalued right now in our opinion. Their strength of schedule for the year is 357th and they haven't faced a single team this year ranked in the top 145 per KenPom. Not only that, 13 of their 19 opponents so far this year are currently ranked outside the top 200. William and Mary will be the highest rated team they’ve faced this season (142nd). In CAA play they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule thus far, not facing a single team in the top 6 of the conference (per KenPom) until tonight. W&M is the 2nd highest rated team in the Colonial and in need of a win after losing 3 of their last 4 games. All of their losses have come on the road/neutral (5-6 record) but W&M is a perfect 7-0 at home this season. The Tribe are one of the top shooting teams in the country (top 55 in FG%) and at home they have been fantastic offensively shooting almost 54% and scoring 93 PPG. UNCW has played 1 top 150 team on the road this year and lost (@ Kent State) and their 3 CAA road games have come vs 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. This team is overdue to get clipped and we like William & Mary to win this one at home.

#744 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -14.5 over Fresno State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. We’re getting a very good team at home and coming off a tight loss @ San Diego State 83-79. That pushed SDSU to the top of the MWC with a 7-0 record while New Mexico, the 2nd highest rated team in the conference, dropped to 5-2. The Lobos bounced back nicely after their first MWC loss to beat Wyoming by 20 points at home and we see a similar result for tonight. They are a perfect 3-0 at home in league play with their wins coming 23, 23, and 20 points and 2 of those wins were vs top 100 teams (Wyoming & Grand Canyon). Their opponent tonight, Fresno State, ranks 139th and is the 3rd worst team in the conference per KenPom’s power ratings. The Bulldogs are coming off back to back home wins as underdogs vs Wyoming and CSU and this could be a tough spot for them. They are 1-4 on the road this season with their only win coming vs San Jose State who is the 2nd worst team in the MWC. The Dogs are not a great shooting team including from deep where they make just 31% of their triples (303rd in the country). This is a bad match up vs an athletic, high level defense in New Mexico. The Lobos rank 29th in defensive efficiency, 51st in eFG% allowed, 18th in 3 point FG% allowed and 22nd in scoring defense allowing just 67 PPG & only 63 PPG at home. Fresno also turns the ball over a lot at almost 20% (313th) and they are up against it tonight as NM creates turnovers at a high rate (20%). That should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Lobos. The closest comparison to New Mexico defensively in the conference would be San Diego State and Fresno scored only 52 points, lost that game by 19 points (trailed by 29 in the 2nd half) and coughed the ball up at a 23% rate. The last 2 years here at the Pit, New Mexico was favored by 21 and 17 points vs Fresno State and won those games by 28 and 21 points respectively. Now we’re getting them at a much lower number. New Mexico rolls in this game.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa -5.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tulsa (3-2 in the AAC) sits one game behind Memphis (4-1) so they can ill afford to lose this game at home. Tulsa is 15-3 overall and despite their 2 conference losses they rank as the best team in the AAC per KenPom (62nd nationally) by quite a wide margin (18 spots higher than 2nd best team South Florida). 2 of their 3 losses have come by 5 points or less. The Golden Hurricanes are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 10th in eFG% and 2nd in the country from beyond the arc making just over 41%. They are in the top 35 in scoring putting up 88 PPG and at home that number jumps to 97 PPG. Let’s not leave out the FT line as Memphis fouls a lot (22% of opponents points come from the charity stripe) and Tulsa makes 79% of their freebies compared to 68% for the Tigers. Memphis is a poor offensive team this season ranking 250th in eFG% and 213th in 3 point FG%. They also turn the ball over at a very high rate of 20% (337th in the country). The Tigers defense has been very solid this year but their defensive road numbers have dropped off a cliff compared to their home numbers. They allow opponents to shoot just 37% at home and that number rises to 46% in their road games. Their 3 point defense at home allows just 24% however on the road that jumps to almost 37%. Not great facing one of the best shooting teams in the country. Lastly, scoring wise Memphis allows 67 PPG at home on 0.90 PPP and 80 PPG on the road on 1.12 PPP. The Tigers are just 1-6 in their games away from home this year (road & neutral) with their only win coming by 6 points @ Rice who ranks as the 3rd worst team in the conference. This is a game Tulsa has been waiting for as they’ve lost 5 straight vs Memphis with their last win coming in 2021. Even though Memphis had much higher rated teams than they do now for those 5 games, 3 of them were decided by 3 points or less. Tulsa is the better team this year and we’ll lay it.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +1.5 over Georgia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for Mizzou coming off a road loss @ LSU facing UGA who is coming off a big home win vs Arkansas. We’re getting excellent value here on the Tigers at home where they are 11-0 this season including wins over high level opponents Florida & Auburn. In fact, the Gators currently rank 9th per KenPom and have only 1 loss since December 9th and that was @ Missouri. The Tigers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in the country averaging 89 PPG at home and just 68 PPG on the road. Their average margin of their home games is +20 PPG while on the road they are -8 PPG. Missouri is one of the best shooting teams in the country hitting 51% of their shots (13th nationally) but at home that number jumps to almost 56% including 39% from 3. The only 2 teams in the country that shoot a higher percentage in their home games are Arizona and Gonzaga. UGA has only played 3 true road games this season and while they are 2-1 in those games, their 2 wins came vs South Carolina (2nd lowest rated team in the SEC) in a game they only led for 33% of the time and vs Florida State who is 7-11 and rated 112th nationally. Their one good opponent on the road was @ Florida who rolled the Bulldogs 92-77. The Dawgs have not had much success on the road in SEC play winning just 7 of their conference road 38 games since the start of the 2021 season. We like Missouri to win this one at home.

ASA play on: Chicago Bulls -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 8PM ET - The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Washington on Monday, and they've struggled significantly in these situations this season. They've gone 1-5 straight up when playing without rest, with an average loss margin of -6.3 points per game on the second day of a back-to-back — that's a clear fatigue and performance drop-off for a road-weary squad. Meanwhile, the Bulls are rolling at home. They just crushed the Nets by 22 points on Sunday, extending their current home winning streak to 3 straight. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 at the United Center. We like the Bulls at home here.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -4 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The biggest game on the docket tonight is this one and we will be on the home team minus the points. San Antonio is at a clear scheduling disadvantage here having played last night against the Jazz. This will also be the Spurs 3rd game in 4 nights, 4th in six days AND 7th in eleven days. Absolutely a horrible schedule situation for San Antonio. Meanwhile the Rockets have been at home since Jan 13th and have 1 day rest for tonight. Houston is 14-3 SU on their home court and the three losses have come to the three best teams in the NBA (Det, OKC, Denver) who have a combined 96-32 record. The Rockets average Margin of Victory at home is +9.1ppg this season. The Spurs are a very good road team at 13-8 SU this season but this is a tough spot. Plus, they beat the Rockets earlier this season and hold a 3.5 game lead in the division. The Rockets have an efficiency edge defensively, the Spurs have a slight advantage offensively. The advantage the Rockets can use to their advantage tonight will be 3-point shooting. The Rockets have the 6th best 3PT% (37%) going up against a Spurs D that allows 36.1% (18th). The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five in this State rivalry.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Northern Colorado -2.5 over Montana St, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northern Colorado has lost 7 of their last 9 games and they are in desperate need of a win at home tonight. In their most recent game they blew an 18 point lead with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game in an OT loss @ Sacramento State. Montana State, on the other hand, comes in winning 6 of their last 7 games giving us some nice line value here on Northern Colorado. Rough situational spot for Montana State as well as they just played host to their arch rival Montana on Saturday (48 hours ago) and picked up a win. That’s always their biggest games (play twice a year) of the season and even more so this year as the Bobcats lost both meetings with Montana last year so they were ultra focused on getting a win on Saturday. This is absolutely a letdown spot for Montana State on the road where they are 3-7 on the season in a short turnaround. MSU’s 3 road wins have come against teams that are all ranked 225th or lower per KenPom (Northern Colorado ranks 171). They’ll definitely get the Bears best effort at home here after losing @ Montana State on January 1st. The Bobcats made 10 three point shots in that win vs a Northern Colorado team that ranks top 25 in defending the arc allowing 6 made 3’s per game on 29% shooting. We don’t expect a duplicate shooting performance from Montana State on the road where they make only 32% of their triples compared to 37% at home. Northern Colorado is a very good offensive team ranking top 50 in shooting %, 3 point FG%, and scoring. At home they are hitting 52% of their shots, 39% of their 3s, and averaging 89 PPG. The Bears get their revenge from a few weeks ago vs a Montana State team that might not be completely focused on this one.

#287 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +7.5 over Indiana, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Hoosiers have been good to us in their playoff run (we used them in both games and won) but now they’re getting too much respect in our opinion. From a pure line value situation, the Canes are definitely the play here. Indiana was a 7.5 point favorite in their first CFP game vs Alabama who we have power rated a full TD less then the Canes. But in this game, Miami is a larger dog than Bama was vs IU? In their most recent game, the Hoosiers were 3.5 point favorite vs Oregon, a team we have rated almost dead with Miami yet the Cants are getting 5 more points in this game? You get the point. Now the Hoosiers rolled in those 2 games but Alabama wasn’t good enough to be in the playoffs and shouldn’t have been with 3 losses. The Oregon win got out of control quickly with IU taking a pick 6 to the house on the first play of the game and on top of that had TD drives of 3 yards, 4 yards, and 19 yards following Duck turnovers. The Hoosiers jumped out to a big lead because of that and Oregon was chasing the whole game and it basically took the Duck rushing attack out of play. From a pure yardage vantage point, the Ducks actually outgained IU 378 to 362. Let’s not discount what Miami has done in the CFB. Won @ Texas A&M, beat Ohio State, and then topped an Ole Miss team that beat Georgia in their previous CFP game. They’ve definitely had the tougher route in the playoffs to this point and proven they can take down anyone. The Canes defense is elite allowing 44 points in their 3 playoff games (14 PPG). Miami is as good as any team in the country on the offensive and defensive lines so we don’t see IU with an advantage there as they had in their first 2 games. If the Hurricanes can establish a running game, they’ve averaged 175 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games, and not turn the ball over they’ve got a shot at the upset. Veteran QB Beck can definitely do enough to keep them in this game if complimented with an adequate run game. Let’s also not forget, this game is in Hard Rock Stadium which is Miami’s home field. The Canes were tabbed as underdogs in 3 of their 15 games this season and won all 3 outright. They are as talented as any team in the country and we think they give Indiana a run here. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 1pm ET - One of my rules on this date is to back the Hawks who are 23-11 SU their last 34 on MLK day. It just so happens that we get a great situational bet too as the Hawks are off a blowout loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Hawks lost by 26-points in that game, but it wasn’t that close as the Celtics led by as many as 43 points. Today they bounce back against a struggling Bucks team that needs to fire their head coach and the GM who hired him. That’s a story for another day. The Hawks have the slightly better efficiency differential overall on the season at -0.9 compared to the Bucks at minus -1.4. The Bucks live and die by the 3-pointer but the Hawks allow 35.6% from deep which ranks 14th in the league. Atlanta has added scoring with McCollum and Kispert who are both great compliments for the 8th best 3PT% shooting team in the NBA. The Bucks don’t defend the arc well ranking 23rd in 3PT% D. In this early matinee we like the home team Hawks.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 9 PM ET - Both teams are currently playing well right now but we like the Kings in this situation as the Blazers are in a tough scheduling spot. Portland played a big game against the Lakers last night and will be playing their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento meanwhile was off yesterday and have been at home since Jan 11th. The Kings have played without All-Star center Sabonis for most of the season but he’s back now along with Zach LaVine who missed time. Sacto has won 4 straight games and 3 of those four were legit as they came against the Lakers, Knicks and Rockets. Portland is playing well too with a 7-2 SU record in their last nine games but they will be missing a key offensive piece in this game with Avdija not expected to play as of this writing. Portland isn’t a great road team to begin with at 9-12 SU with an average loss margin of -4.9ppg. The Kings are playing with double revenge here after losing to the Blazers twice already this season. Lay the short number with Sacramento.

#792 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -2.5 over BYU, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas Tech is an extremely dangerous team, especially at home. They are 13-4 on the season with all 4 of their losses coming away from home (road or neutral) vs high level opponents. 3 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 11 (Purdue, Houston, and Illinois). They are 9-0 at home this season and 24-3 here since the start of last season. The Red Raiders already beat Duke on a neutral court in NYC (MSG) so they are good enough to beat anyone. The Cougars come in with a near perfect 16-1 record but this team is ready to get clipped in our opinion. They’ve been close to getting upset recently holding on to beat an OK at best Utah team (lowest rated team in the Big 12) by 5 and then coming from behind at home to beat TCU 76-70 on Wednesday night. In that win, BYU trailed at home for 53% of the game and held on for a tight win despite getting the friendly whistle at home making 11 more FT’s than the Horned Frogs. The Cougs 2 conference road games were vs KSU and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the Big 12, and those are their only 2 true road games of the entire season. They’ll be walking into a hornet’s nest here as the students are back for Tech and a huge crowd is expected. The Red Raiders offense is as good as any on the country (18th in efficiency) and they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (24th). Head coach McCasland has always been one of the best defensive coaches in the country and after a slow start on that end of the court, Tech has been really good on that end over their last 6 games. They’ve held each team during that stretch below their offensive efficiency averages and all 6 of their opponents rank in the top 90 on offensive efficiency. BYU has another match up with Utah, their arch rival, on deck and we like Tech to take them down on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -3 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - We like the situation here for the Celtics and will lay the short number with the road favorite. Both teams last played Thursday on the road as the Celtics were at Miami and the Hawks were in Portland. Boston beat the Heat 119-114, the Hawks lost to the Blazers 101-117. Atlanta is in a much tougher scheduling situation here though. Since Jan 2nd they have played 8 games, seven of which were on the road, the last 4 were on the West Coast. Boston is flying under the radar right now at 23-13 SU on the season with the 3rd best efficiency differential in the league at +7.3. The C’s are 13-8 ATS on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +6.8ppg. We like what the Hawks did in trading Trae Young for a proven scoring vet like McCollum and it will pay dividends down the road, just not in this situation. Atlanta is 17th in eDIFF at -0.9 and have a 7-11 ATS home record this season, minus -2.4ppg. These two teams have similar offensive numbers but the Celtics defense is significantly better than the Hawks. Lay the short number with Boston.

#759 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M +5.5 over Texas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Texas is off a huge upset home win over Vanderbilt on Wednesday in a game they shot 53% overall, 41% from deep, and 86% from the FT line, all well above their season averages. They possibly benefited from a Vandy peak ahead to their huge game today vs Florida. The Horns haven’t been all that impressive this year. They already have 2 home losses, including vs Mississippi State who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the SEC, along with a 19 point loss vs Virginia. The Aggies are coming off an OT loss @ Tennessee (on Tuesday so an extra day) in a game they led 75% of the time. It was an impressive performance vs a Vol team that has smoked everyone at home, including this Texas team, prior to A&M taking them to the wire despite making 10 fewer FT’s. In their other SEC road game the Aggies beat a very good Auburn team so they’ve proven they can get it done vs high level teams on the road. A&M is a very good shooting team (24th in eFG%) and they make almost 37% of their 3’s. They should make hay from deep in this game vs a Longhorn D that allows opponents to make 35% of the triples (235th nationally). Defensively the pesky Aggies create turnovers at the highest rate in the SEC and 17th most in the country. Texas struggles to protect the ball ranking 11th in offensive turnover rate in SEC play and that should lead to extra possessions for Texas A&M. Since starting the season 2-2, TAMU has won 11 of their last 13 games with their only 2 losses during that run coming in OT vs SMU and Tennessee, 2 teams both rated higher than this Texas team per KenPom. The Horns are just 3-6 this year vs top 100 teams and we like A&M to cover and have a great chance to win this game outright.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -4 over UCLA, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We have a huge situational edge for OSU in this one. They are coming off a loss @ Washington last Sunday (we were on Washington) and now they’ve had the entire week off to rest up and get ready for this game. They lost starting center Tilly (12 PPG) in the first half of that game to a head injury. He’s had a week to rest and head coach Jake Diebler is confident he’ll be OK on Saturday. On the other side, UCLA is in a really rough spot here. Their last 5 games they played @ Iowa (loss), @ Wisconsin (loss), came home for 1 game vs Maryland and won, then had to travel to the east coast to face Penn State on Wednesday and now Ohio State today. That’s 5 games in 15 days with 4 coming on the road all with long travel. They are coming off a win on Wednesday @ PSU but caught a break when the Nittany Lions leading scorer Dillone injured his ankle 8 minutes into the game and did not return. On top of that, Penn State made only 4 of 22 from 3 (18%) and the Bruins were 21 of 21 from the FT line. UCLA played that game without leading scorer Skyy Clark (3rd game in a row he missed) and he is highly doubtful in this one. They’ve also had the flu running through their team this week with a few players bed ridden which could definitely be an issue here. In their 2 recent road games @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin, 2 very similarly rated teams to OSU, they lost by 13 (trailed by 24) and by 8 (trailed by 20) respectively. The Buckeyes are one of the top offensive teams in the country ranking 25th in FG% while averaging 83 PPG while making 79% of their FTs. Those numbers jump to 52% and 88 PPG on their home court. Since losing Clark, UCLA’s top 3 point shooter, they’ve hit just 19 of 74 from beyond the arc (25%), spanning their last 4 games. Today they face an OSU defense that allows only 29% from deep which is 24th in the country so we expect very little from 3 for the Bruins in this game. They’ve also averaged only 67 PPG over their last 4. We’re not sure they can keep up offensively in this game and with the sickness, injuries, and terrible travel schedule, UCLA might not have much left in the tank. Take the Buckeyes.