#812 ASA PLAY ON Southern Illinois -2.5 over Bradley, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These 2 Illinois rivals faced off in late December in their first match up with Bradley squeaking out at 4 point win. SIU made only 3 triples in the game and were outscored from the FT line by 6 points. This is a game the Salukis have had circled in red for a while as they’ve lost 7 in a row to their arch rivals. SIU was an underdog in all 7 of those losses and prior to this year, they ranked at least 25 spots lower than Bradley (per KenPom) at the time of those meetings. So not a huge surprise they lost those games. Now, despite their 6-9 Missouri Valley record, the Salukis are ranked 23 spots higher than the Braves who are 10-5 in league play. This is their best shot to break the streak and we think they will. Bradley is overvalued sitting in 3rd place in the MVC but they are rated as the 7th best team in the conference per KenPom. The Braves are coming off a massive home win in OT vs 1st place Belmont earlier this week. That sets this one up nicely to take SIU at home as a small favorite. The Braves have 3 conference road wins but those were vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (Evansville, Indiana St, and Drake) and 2 of those wins came in OT. They aren’t a great shooting team, especially on the road where they make only 40% of their shots and average just 1.05 PPP. They are facing the MVC’s best defense on Sunday as SIU ranks #1 in defensive efficiency allowing opponents less than 1.00 PPP. The Salukis are playing their best basketball of the conference season winning 4 of their last 6 and 7 of their 9 MVC losses have come by 7 points or less. Interestingly, despite their records in league play (SIU 6-9 and Bradley 10-5) they have the exact same PPG margin at +1. In other words, Southern Illinois’ record could be much better and Bradley’s could be much worst. On the season, SIU has played the tougher strength of schedule and despite that, their straight stats are better than Bradley. They have a higher FG% offensive and they are much better on defense ranking in the top 90 on FG% allowed while the Braves rank 236th. We love the value here getting the better team by nearly a full 25 spots as a very small home favorite. SIU is the call in this one.

#756 ASA PLAY ON Cal State Northridge +3.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Hawaii sits in 1st place in the Big West with a 10-3 record, but they’ve had one tough scheduling stretch. This is already their FOURTH 2-game trip to the mainland since January 1st. They’ve split the 3 previous trips winning a game and losing a game. They won @ Cal State Bakersfield (worst team in the Big West) on Thursday night and now they are facing a surging CSUN team that has won 4 in a row and sitting at 8-5 in conference play. While the Rainbows have been going back and forth from the islands to the mainland for a month and a half now, Northridge will be playing their 4th home game in their last 5 games overall. The Matadors are 10-1 at home this season and they’ve been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed @ Hawaii on January 24th. CSUN lost that game by 21 points on a terrible shooting performance making just 38% of their shots, 29% from deep, and only 47% of their FT’s. They actually attempted 11 more shots in that game but made 7 fewer triples and 12 fewer FT’s. It was, by far, their worst loss of the Big West season with all 4 of their other setbacks coming by single digits. We look for the Matadors to play much better offensively at home where they make 49% and average 89 PPG. While Hawaii is 14-1 at home this year, they are just 4-4 on the road and we like Northridge to have a solid shot at the upset here. We expect a tight game either way and we’ll take the points.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Utah St -12.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We don’t think Memphis will be able to keep up in this game. First of all it’s terrible scheduling spot for the Tigers. They just played @ North Texas on Thursday night and now are playing another road game, in altitude, just 48 hours later. On top of that it’s their 4th game in 10 days with 3 coming on the road. On the other hand, Utah State played at home on Tuesday (beat Fresno by 13 but led by 21 in the 2nd half) giving them a few extra days to prepare. The Aggies are 21-3 on the season and they are a great offensive team. They rank 7th in the nation hitting just over 51% of their shots, they are 27th in offensive efficiency and average 84 PPG (19th in the nation). Memphis is not a very good shooting team ranking outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%. The Tigers are just 2-7 on the road this year and one of those wins was vs Rice, the 3rd worst team in the AAC. The Tigers do have very solid overall defensive numbers, however those stats drop drastically on the road and we’re looking at a strong possibility of tired legs, on a short turn around, playing in altitude here as well. Memphis allows just 67 PPG at home on 0.89 PPP but on the road that jumps to 80 PPG and 1.10 PPP. They haven’t faced a very good slate of offensive teams and in fact, only 2 teams in the AAC are in the top 100 in offensive efficiency and Memphis has faced only 1 of those teams. That was Tulsa who beat them 83-66 and averaged 1.26 PPP in that game. We also expect USU to get plenty of extra possessions here as they create turnovers at a high level (16th in the country) and Memphis coughs the ball up at an alarming rate of 20% (340th in the country). The Aggies are also the 46th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Memphis is 329th in defensive rebounding. On top of that, both teams play up tempo which should play right into Utah State’s hands in this game at home giving them even more opportunities to pull away vs a tired Memphis team. The Cats has faced just 2 top 100 teams in AAC play on the road (Wichita St and Tulsa) and lost those games by 15 and 17 points and both are ranked well below this Utah State team (25th in the nation per KenPom). This is a non-conference game that we expect USU to be much more focused on being at home and playing a name BB school like Memphis. The Tigers, on the other hand, have another road game on deck at South Florida who sits in first place in the AAC which is a much more important game for them. This had the potential to get ugly and we’ll lay the points.

#678 ASA PLAY ON Northern Colorado -3 over Portland State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Portland State sits in first place in the Big Sky with an 11-1 record, however they’ve played by far the easiest schedule in conference play. They’ve faced only 1 of the top 5 teams in the league (per KenPom) on the road this year and that was @ Idaho who is the 5th rated team and barely sits in the top 200 at 195. PSU beat the Vandals in that game by 3 points but Idaho was dealing with some serious flu issues in that game with a few key players nowhere near 100% yet it still went to the wire. This is a tough schedule spot for the Vikings as well playing their 3rd straight road game after winning by 1 point @ Sacramento State last Saturday (we were on Sac State +4.5) and by 9 @ Northern Arizona on Thursday. Those are the 2 lowest rated teams in the Big Sky and now they take a big jump up facing a red hot Northern Colorado team. The Bears struggled early in the conference season winning just 1 of their first 8 games but they have since won 5 in a row. 5 of their 7 Big Sky losses have come by 5 points or less and despite their 6-7 league record, they are still rated as the 3rd best team in the conference. While Portland State is playing their 2nd road game in 48 hours, Northern Colorado is at home for their 2nd straight game after handling Sacramento State 95-79 here on Thursday. These 2 faced off @ Portland State in mid January and the Vikings pulled off a 76-73 win despite leading for only 35% of the game and the Bears missed a 3 pointer with 4 seconds left down 1 which would have given them the win. NC is one of the better offensive teams in the country ranking in the top 45 in FG%, 3 point FG% and scoring. They’ve been waiting for this one and catching PSU in a perfect spot to pick up a win. There is a reason the team with the 6-7 Big Sky record is favored over the 11-1 team. We’ll lay the small number.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers –7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 pm ET - Heading into the All-Star break with the final games before the break taking place Thursday night and one of those is the Blazers vs Jazz game. These two teams are heading in opposite directions with the Blazers in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase sitting 9th and only a few games behind the 8th place Warriors. Utah on the other hand has 18 wins on the season and, though off a surprisingly big win last night over the Kings, indications are they will tank the rest of the season for a better draft position. The other night in Miami, the Jazz were playing well through 3 quarters and leading the Heat, then unexpectedly sat the starters in the 4th Q. This Jazz roster with the addition of Jackson Jr and the emergence of Keyonte George has a bright future but we won’t see their best play the rest of the way this season. Portland is playing well right now with a close loss to Phoenix before then winning 3 in a row against the Grizzlies and Sixers prior to last night's loss at Minnesota. Portland has the 11th best Net rating over their last 5-games and they had covered 5 straight road games before the blowout loss to the Timberwolves last night. The big advantage the Blazers have in this matchup in their defense which ranks 19th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.165-points per possession. Utah on the other hand is LAST in the NBA in dEFF allowing 1.229PPP. Portland has beaten the Jazz twice already this season with the most recent win coming in early January by 20-points. This one could be just as ugly as the last one.

#780 ASA PLAY ON Northern Colorado -7.5 over Sacramento State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We were on Sacramento State on Saturday as a 4.5 point dog vs Portland State and picked up a win with PSU winning by just 1 point. That was a home game for Sac St where they’ve played very well as of late. This one is on the road where they’ve been terrible to say the least. The Hornets are 0-12 SU on the road this season getting outscored by an average of 16 PPG. They are already one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 317th making just 42% of their shots but on the road that drops to just 37% including only 26% from beyond the arc. Sac State has played 6 of their last 8 at home and they’ve shot WAY above their average from deep in those 6 home games which spurred their recent 5-3 record over their last 8. In those 6 home games they made 62 of 138 from 3 point land for 45% (they average 33% on the season). In their 2 road games during that stretch (both losses) they made just 8 of 31 from deep (25%) which is actually very close to their road average. They’ll struggle here vs a Northern Colorado D that allows 31% from deep (61st in the country). The Bears are the MUCH better shooting team overall ranking 29th in the country making 49% of their shots and that improves to over 50% at home. These 2 just met on January 17th and Sacramento St pulled off a 91-87 win in OT. NC led for nearly 90% of that game including sitting on an 18 point lead with under 10:00 left in the game and they blew it. You can bet they are completely focused on this rematch. The line in that game was Northern Colorado -7.5 and now we’re getting them at the exact same line at home (opener was -7.5) against a team that is terrible on the road. The Bears are on a nice run as well winning 4 in a row, including 2 road wins, and we look for them to cover this one at home.

#720 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -6.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We really like the way this one sets up for the Aggies at home. They are off back to back losses @ Alabama by 3 and they were crushed at home vs Florida (2 of the top 20 teams in the country per KenPom) over the weekend. That should give them some extra motivation in this one. Their loss vs Florida (highest rated team in the SEC) was their first home loss in league play this season. Missouri is off back to back wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina, by far the 2 worst teams in the conference per KenPom and this will be their 2nd straight road game. The Tigers have struggled on the road losing their 3 previous away from home, including a 90-64 loss @ Bama, prior to beating South Carolina (worst team in the league) over the weekend. They’ve been drastically worse on the road on offense averaging 69 PPG on 1.00 PPP compared to 87 PPG on 1.21 PPP at home. The Aggie defense ranks 2nd in the SEC in defensive efficiency, 3rd in eFG% allowed, and 2nd in 3 point FG% allowed so the Tigers offense will most likely struggle here. On offense A&M loves to shoot the 3 with 48% of their shots coming from deep (25th most nationally) and they make them at a 37% rate (39th nationally). That’s a terrible match up for the Mizzou defense that ranks 13th in the SEC defending the arc and 275th in the country. The Aggies average 95 PPG this season at home and as we stated above, Missouri steps in at just 69 PPG on the road. The host also has a big advantage at the FT line where they shoot 77% to just 67% for the Tigers. The Aggies have won 5 straight in this series and 8 of the last 10. We’ll lay it here with the desperate home team off 2 straight losses and 3 of their next 4 are on the road.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - The Hornets will be shorthanded tonight with suspensions likely coming for Diabate and Bridges stemming from a brawl the other night against the Pistons. That’s a significant loss for the Hornet in one key aspect of their advantage in this game against the Hawks. These two teams just played a few days ago and the Hornets outrebounded the Hawks by 19. Diabate and Bridges are the two leading rebounders for the Hornets. Charlotte has been on a fantastic run of late but when you look at season long statistics there isn’t much of a gap between these two teams with the Hornets having a +1.9 efficiency differential compared to the Hawks -1.2 eDIFF. Atlanta shoots it at 47.3% on the season (11th best) and the Hornets allow 47.3%, 19th worst in the league. The Hawks should enjoy a solid advantage from beyond the arc in this one as they are the 6th best 3PT shooting team in the league going up against the 24th 3PT% D of the Hornets. Charlotte isn’t a great shooting team at 46.1% (22nd) which will have a tough time exploiting a Hawks defense that is 22nd in FG% allowed. We like the Hawks here playing with quick revenge from the loss just a few days ago on their home court when the Hornets were at full strength (Diabate and Bridges combined for 21 rebounds and 37 points in that game). The road team has covered 3 of the last four meetings is this series. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -8 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET - The Phoenix Suns have one very strong trend working in their favor in this matchup and that’s a blistering 25-11 ATS record in conference play this season. Conversely, Dallas is the worst team in the NBA in conference play with a 12-22 ATS mark. The Suns are winning at home by an average of plus +5.6ppg on the season. The Mavs are losing on the road by that same average but it’s a negative number of minus -5.6ppg. Dallas is 2-10 SU in their last twelve road games. Phoenix is off a loss in this game and that’s been a favorable betting situation this season as they are 14-7 ATS when coming off an ‘L’. The Mavs are a poor 3PT shooting team at 34.5% on the season (25th) and will find it difficult against a Suns D that has the 5th best 3PT% defense allowing 34.7%. Granted the Mavs defend the arc better than anyone but the Suns should have above average success here with the 10th best 3PT% in the NBA at 36.5%. Phoenix is also the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league and 7th in second chance points which will be the deciding factor in this outcome. Lay it with the Sun over the Mavs.

#606 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +1.5 over North Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Really bad spot for UNC who is coming off their last second win over Duke at home on Saturday. It was a game the Heels NEVER led until the final shot of the game when they made a 3 pointer at the buzzer. UNC shot the ball better overall (47% to 45%) and hit 42% of their triples (37% for Duke) yet never had a lead at home. It’s going to be really tough for this team to go on the road and win after the energy and emotions of that Duke win. UNC has just a 2-3 record on the road in ACC play and one of those wins was vs the worst team in the conference Georgia Tech. The Canes are 18-5 on the season and 7-3 in ACC play. They are 12-2 at home and we have them as a slight favorite in this game and that doesn’t factor in the situation. Simply numbers. 2 of Miami’s 3 ACC losses have come by 2 points or less and their only loss by more than 1 possession in league play was @ Clemson who is in first place in the conference with a 10-1 record. The Canes are one of the best shooting teams in the country (11th in FG%) and they are averaging 90 PPG at home this season. UNC’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however on the road they have allowed opponents to shoot 50% while giving up 82 PPG. The Heels are 1-2 ATS as a road favorite this year losing 2 of those games outright. This is the first time this season Miami is getting points at home and we’ll take the points as we expect the Canes to win this one.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Kansas +2 over Arizona, Monday at 9 PM ET - Arizona steps into this one with a perfect 23-0 record and the lone Power 5 teams still unblemished (Miami OH from the MAC is also undefeated). Chances of them going undefeated are very slight as just 2 teams in the last 15 years have entered the NCAA tourney with a perfect record. This is a spot where we see KU having a great shot at the upset. Allen Fieldhouse is one of the most difficult venues for opposing teams with KU going 341-22 here since Bill Self took over in 2003 and a perfect 38-0 in Big Monday games on ESPN. It’s a rarity to see the Jayhawks as a home underdog. It’s only happened 4 times since Self took over in 2003 and KU has won 3 of those 4 games outright. The only game they did not win SU was earlier this year vs UConn (a 5 point loss) in a game Kansas was without guard Peterson who is projected as they first overall pick in the upcoming NBA draft. They were also a home dog a few weeks ago vs a top tier Iowa State team (#6 nationally per KenPom) and they blasted the Cyclones by 21 points. Speaking of Peterson, he’s had some injury issues this season (cramping as well) and missed 9 games. However, he’s been ramping up the last few games playing 30+ minutes in both wins over a really good Texas Tech team and Utah so he seems to be close to 100%. The Hawks are on a roll winning 7 in a row including impressive wins over Iowa State, BYU, and Texas Tech (on the road). Zona is obviously very good, but with the exception of their 3 point road win @ BYU, they haven’t been tested on the road in Big 12 play facing 4 teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 50 in their other 4 conference road tilts. The Cats have faced the easiest schedule in Big 12 play having faced only 1 of the top 6 teams in the conference thus far which was their 3 point win @ BYU (the 6th rated team in the Big 12 per KenPom). This smells like a possible upset brewing and we’ll take the points.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +7.5 at Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Jazz and fade the Heat who are off a game yesterday in Washington. Not only that, but the Heat had two huge games prior to that against the Celtics and Hawks and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. Utah is playing their 5th straight road game but had yesterday off and previously played in Orlando so travel is not an issue. The Jazz have looked much better in recent games with a 7-point loss at Toronto, a win in Indiana, a 2-point loss in Atlanta and a 3-point loss to the Magic (4-0 ATS). Utah actually has a pretty solid roster now with Nurkic, Markkanen, Jackson Jr (Memphis trade), Baily and George as their starting five. Miami will be missing two of their leading scorers on Monday with Powell and Herro both listed as out here. Miami is a respectable 14-12 ATS at home this season but their average MOV is +4.3ppg which isn’t enough to get it done tonight against the Jazz and the points. Scheduling can’t be overlooked in this one so while Miami may win, we expect it to be close.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 vs LA Clippers 3 PM ET - The Clippers made a few big deals at the trade deadline when they shipped two starting veterans in Zubac and Harden to Indiana and Cleveland. They brought in some youth with Garland, Mathurin and Jackson but those three are not expected to play here. The Clippers are 1-2 SU in their last three games after going on a torrid streak with Harden/Zubac on their roster. We expect a regression in their game in the short term as the new starters will need to acclimate to the new scheme in L.A. Clearly the oddsmakers are suggesting the same as they set this line higher than normal. They are baiting us into betting on the Clippers and we won’t fall for the trap. The Wolves are coming off a disappointing loss to the Pelicans at home and should bounce back in this one. Minnesota is 5-2 SU in their last seven games and have been solid at home this season with a 17-9 SU record. The Wolves have won 5 straight against the Clippers and should enjoy an advantage from beyond the arc in this one. Minnesota is the 4th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA and the Clippers rank 25th in 3PT% defense. That will be the difference in this one and gets the Wolves a double-digit home win.

#861 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +13 over Iowa, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid line value with NW in this game. It’s an overreaction to their 40 point loss @ Illinois, a game that had a Shot Quality score of 78-65 in favor of the Illini. So the final was not indicative of how the game should have played out. Illinois was favored by 15 at home in that game and now Iowa is laying 13? So on a neutral court Illinois would be a 2 point favorite over Iowa? Yeah that wouldn’t be the number in fact our power rating have Illinois as a 7.5 point favorite in that situation. Anyway you get the point. Iowa is on the other end of the spectrum as of late. They are coming off and 18 and 10 point win vs Oregon & Washington and the SQ scores in those games had the Hawkeyes winning by 6 and 5 respectively. All that together is giving us value on the Wildcats in this one. The Hawks have 1 home win by more than 13 points in Big 10 play and that was vs Maryland, the 2nd lowest rated team in the conference. They only have 2 Big 10 wins by more than 13 in their 11 games played. NW has been fairly competitive on the Big 10 road minus their game @ Illinois. They beat USC, lost @ UCLA by 7, lost @ MSU by 10 and lost @ Wisconsin by 12. Iowa thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but that won’t work here vs the Cats who are #1 in the country in offensive turnover percentage. They don’t give games away. NW scores the majority of their points inside the arc (36th in percentage of points from 2 point land) and that’s Iowa’s weakness ranking 15th in the Big 10 defending inside the 3 point line. Neither team is a great rebounding team so no advantage there. Only 63 possessions expected in this game per KenPom will make it tough for Iowa to win by a large margin. NW has actually won 2 of the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams and the Hawkeyes 2 wins were by 1 and 7 points. We expect Northwestern to come out with a chip on their shoulder in this one after their embarrassing loss earlier this week. Let’s take the generous points.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7 over UC San Diego, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET - We were on UC San Diego when these two met back in early January and picked up a solid win. We’re flipping the script here and grabbing Hawaii at home as things have changed quite drastically since that game. Since that win, UCSD simply hasn’t played well. They have a record of 4-5 SU (2-7 ATS) since beating Hawaii at home and 3 of their 4 wins have come vs 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the Big West (per KenPom). The Tritons have actually lost 4 games outright as a favorite since their win over Hawaii. They nearly lost another game as a favorite on Thursday night when they played host to Long Beach State who has a record of 8-16 on the season. UCSD won that game by 3 points but only led for 32% of the game and LBSU played without their leading scorer Sykes who averages 18 PPG. The Rainbows sit in 2nd place in the Big West 1 game behind UC Irvine, who they beat at home and lost in OT on the road. They are 13-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming vs Arizona State. They are also in the much better situational spot here as the Rainbows have had a full week off since winning @ Long Beach State last Saturday while UCSD played on Thursday night then had to make the long trip to the islands to play just 48 hours later. Narrowing the stats down to conference games only, Hawaii ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. They have a points per possession margin of +13 per 100 possessions and UC San Diego has a negative PPP margin per 100 possessions. The one thing that can cause Hawaii’s offense issues are defensive teams that create a high percentage of turnovers. The Tritons are not that team as they rank dead last in the Big West at creating turnovers. UCSD doesn’t get to the FT line very often and relies heavily on making 3 pointers which will be an issue here vs a UH defense that ranks 3rd in the nation allowing just 27% shooting from beyond the arc. Hawaii has been waiting for this rematch and they are rested and ready to go. Rainbows by double digits.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:40PM ET - This is going to be a battle between depleted rosters as both teams have key contributors out for tonight’s contest. Of the two teams, the Lakers are in much better shape. Los Angeles will be without Luka tonight but the Warriors look like a MASH unit with both Curry brothers out, Jimmy Butler is lost for the season, Porzingis is not ready to suit up and Podziemski is listed as questionable. The Lakers also have Austin Reaves back in the lineup after missing extended time so he can pick up the scoring void left by Luka. Reaves scored 35 points in limited action in the Lakers last game versus the 76ers. L.A. has won two straight and 7 of their last ten games. In that 10-game stretch they have the 9th best Net rating in the NBA and the impressive part is that 8 of those 10 games were on the road. Golden State is more pretender than contender and have a 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games with the 15th rated Net rating. The Lakers played well against the red hot Sixers the other night with Luka missing the majority of that game after getting injured. Golden State’s defense is not as good as their reputation ranking 18th in opponents FG%, allowing 47% on the season. That will be a problem against the best shooting team in the NBA as the Lakers check in with a team FG% of 49.9%. The Lakers are the much healthier team here and should win this home over the Warriors by 8+ points.

#792 ASA PLAY ON California +3.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tough situation for the Tigers who are on the 2nd leg of back to back road games on the West Coast after squeaking out a 2 point win @ Stanford on Wednesday night as a 3.5 point favorite. Now Clemson is laying the same number (opened -3.5) in a tougher situation vs a better team (Cal ranks 20 spots higher than Stanford and beat them on the road by 12 points). Clemson has faced the 17th rated strength of schedule (out of 18 teams) in ACC games which definitely plays a factor in their 9-1 league record (2nd place). Despite their conference record, KenPom’s power ratings have the Tigers as the 6th best team in the conference. They’ve had a cakewalk, so to speak on the road, with their 5 road games in ACC play coming against Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Stanford who are all below .500 in the ACC and have a combined record of 13-37 in league play. The Bears have won 4 of their last 5, including a solid win here over North Carolina, and they are at home for the 2nd straight game after beating Georgia Tech here on Wednesday. The Bears are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 30) and while Clemson’s overall defensive numbers are very good, they do allow opponents to hit 37% of their triples on the road. This is a huge home game for Cal (17-6 record) as it’s their last chance for a signature win as they try and push their way into the NCAA tourney. The remainder of their ACC opponents all currently have record below .500 in league play. This smells like a good spot for a potential upset and we’ll take the points.

#648 ASA PLAY ON Marquette -2 over Butler, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Marquette sits tied for last place in the Big East with a 3-9 record, but they’ve been playing much better and at home they’ve been very solid. There is a reason they are favored in this game despite their record. They are facing a Butler team who just lost in double OT @ Providence, the other team that sits on last place in the conference. The Bulldogs had 3 starters play 43 plus minutes in that loss and were already thin with starting guard Azavier Robinson missing the game with a wrist injury. It doesn’t look like he’ll be back for this one either. While Butler was battling in double OT on the road just a few days ago, Marquette was resting at home having not played since last Saturday. At home, the Golden Eagles have won 3 of their last 4 topping Creighton, Providence, and Xavier while losing a tight 3 point game vs Villanova, the 3rd highest rated team in the league behind UConn and St Johns. This is a revenger for Marquette who lost @ Butler on January 23rd by 11 points. The Eagles shot only 18% from beyond the arc in that game and got “homered” a bit by the official with the Bulldogs going to the FT line 31 times (making 23) while Marquette attempted just 14 FT’s (making 9). Butler is just 1-6 on the road this season and their defense ranks 10th out of 11 teams in efficiency in conference play allowing nearly 1.20 PPP. On the road they allow opponents to shoot almost 50% and average 86 PPG. The Golden Eagles are averaging over 80 PPG at home and they’ve beaten Butler 6 of the last 7 times in Milwaukee. We like the rested home team to get their revenge in this one.

#888 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago +3.5 over Belmont, Friday at 9 PM ET - Belmont is on top of the Missouri Valley with an 11-2 record but we think they have a great chance to get picked off in this game. They are 5-1 on the road in conference play but they’ve been really close to losing more than once vs some lower tier teams in the league. They lost @ Indiana State who is rated as the 2nd worst team in the league per KenPom, barely beat Evansville by 5 (worst team in the MVC), beat Drake by 2, and Valpo by 1, all teams rated lower than UIC. 4 of their 5 conference road wins have come by 5 points or less. Illinois Chicago (8-5 in the conference) just had their 8 game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday @ Murray State. We were on the Racers in that game as it set up perfectly with Murray in must win mode at home after losing 4 in a row. Different situation here as we now get the Flames off a loss facing an overvalued Belmont team that has won 8 in a row. In their first meeting this year @ Belmont, UIC gave them everything they could handle in an 87-84 loss. The Bruins shot 58% overall and 52% from deep in that game yet still only led for 26% of the game and trailed by 13 in the 2nd half. Even with that, the game went to the wire. The Flames controlled the offensive glass in that game and had 5 fewer turnovers. That shouldn’t change here as UIC leads the conference in offensive rebounding percentage and Belmont is dead last in defensive rebounding percentage. The Flames defense also creates turnovers at almost a 21% rated (#1 in the league) and Belmont ranks 269th in offensive turnover percentage. If it’s tight late, the Bruins are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country making only 67%. We expect a close game with UIC having a solid shot at the upset so we’ll grab the points.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - The Mavericks made some big trade noise yesterday and made a statement of building around Cooper Flagg through the draft in the future when they sent Anthony Davis to Washington. Tonight, they will have a reduced roster as many players will not be available, plus PJ Washington is out and starting center Gafford is questionable. The Spurs are coming off a game last night but only one player on the roster played more than 30 minutes and they’re as deep as any team in the league. Dallas is mired in a 5-game losing streak and a big reason why is their regression in shooting percentages at 43.9% over that stretch which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. They are not a good 3PT shooting team to begin with at 34.2% (26th) and have been even worse in that same stretch of games shooting just 31.9% from deep. San Antonio has the 6th best efficiency differential in the NBA at plus +5.1 and are only 1 of four teams in the entire NBA that rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Spurs are capable of winning on the road as they’ve shown this season with a 15-10 SU away record. We like San Antonio by 9+ points.

#788 ASA PLAY ON UNC Wilmington -4.5 over William & Mary, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 CAA rivals met on January 22nd and we were on William & Mary at home at they picked up the 77-70 win as a 2 point favorite. That was UNCW’s first and only loss so far this conference season. We’ll turn the tables here and take the Seahawks at home in revenge mode. UNCW struggled shooting in that game as we expected they would hitting just 33% overall and only 29% from 3 point land. They averaged just 0.94 PPP in that game well below their season average of 1.12 PPP. The one thing UNCW did well in that game was they dominated the boards (+10) and they were +8 on the offensive glass. We don’t expect that to change as they are the much better rebounding team ranking top 50 nationally on the offensive and defensive glass compared to W&M who ranks 313th in offensive rebounding percentage and 265th on the defensive boards. We look for them to shoot much better at home where they are 11-1 this season and facing a William & Mary defense that allows opponents to shoot 47% on the road while allowing 83 PPG. Speaking of on the road, the Tribe are also a completely different team away from home offensively. They average 10 PPG fewer on the road while averaging only 1.00 PPP (they average 1.17 PPP at home). They are 0-4 on the road in conference play and we like UNCW to get the win and cover tonight.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +5 at Houston Rockets, 8pm ET - This game has extra meaning for the coaches as Rockets head man Ime Udoka was the Celtics coach before getting fired for inappropriate behavior prior to the 2022 season. Joe Mazzulla was named interim coach before getting the gig full time. The Celtics made a big trade yesterday and landed center Vucevic of the Bulls for Simons who didn’t fit in Boston’s rotation. We mention that as there aren't more trade rumors swirling around these locker rooms, so we don’t have to worry about those distractions with our wager tonight. Boston grades out higher in our power ratings than the Rockets and would be favored on a neutral court yet are getting a generous +5.5 points here. A big reason is the fact that they played last night in Dallas. But no team in the NBA is better than Boston when playing without rest. The Celtics have gone 35-13 SU under Mazzulla when playing without rest and have an average margin of victory in those games of +9.4ppg. That’s way too big of a sample size to be a fluke. The Rockers were recently favored by -3.5 at home vs. the Wolves, -4.5 and -2.5 at home against the Spurs which tell you enough about this number. Boston is 16-10 SU on the road this season with the second best average MOV of +6.8ppg, behind only the Thunder. The Rockets are 17-4 SU on their home floor but the average MOV in those games is +7.6 which barely gets a cover in this one. Even if KD suits up for this game, we like the Dog and the points.

#306554 ASA PLAY ON Austin Peay -4 over Lipscomb, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Austin Peay sits in first place in the ASUN Conference with a 9-1 record and Lipscomb is in 2nd place at 8-2. Lipscomb has played the easiest schedule in the ASUN and their 2 road losses have both come on the road vs Stetson and Jacksonville who are both below .500 in league play at 4-6. This Bisons are coming off a tight 100-94 road win @ North Florida (who is 3-7 in the conference) in a game they shot 61% overall and 43% from deep yet only led for 38% of the game vs one of the worst teams in the conference. Now they are on the road again, facing the best team in the conference, and it’s Lipscomb’s 3rd straight road game in the last 7 days. Austin Peay is 9-0 at home this season and their only conference loss was a 4 point setback at Lipscomb so needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Governors have 6 losses this season (18-6 record) with all of their losses coming vs teams ranked in the top 160 per KenPom. They played top 65 teams Ole Miss and Tulsa very tough on the road losing by 7 and 9 points respectively. Lipscomb has 8 losses on the year and 3 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 225 including a loss @ Stetson who currently ranks 320th. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot with over 46% of their shot attempts coming from deep (36th most nationally) but facing a very good defense on the road in this one. AP is the best defensive team in the ASUN ranking #1 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, defensive turnover rate, and they are 2nd defending the arc. On offense they are averaging 88 PPG at home this year while giving up only 65 PPG. Lipscomb’s defense has been poor away from home allowing 83 PPG and their PPG margin on the road is -7. We like Austin Peay to get the win and cover at home on Wednesday night.

#726 ASA PLAY ON Wichita St -8 over Charlotte, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte sits tied for 1st place in the AAC with a 7-2 record which is 2 games ahead of Wichita (5-4 record), yet the Shockers are favored by almost double digits here? Hmm? First of all, Charlotte has played the easiest schedule in the conference to date by a fairly wide margin. Of their 9 conference games, only 2 have come vs the top 5 in the AAC (power rating per KenPom) and BOTH were at home. They lost to Tulsa by 12 at home and beat this Wichita State team at home 104-100 in double OT. The Shockers were favored by -5.5 on the road in that game which gives this home number of -8 for Wichita some solid value. Line usually moves 6 to 8 points from home to road and this one is only 2.5 points off the first meeting. I that game, the Shockers blew an 18 point 2nd half lead and Charlotte led for only 23% of the game. The 49ers NEVER led in the 2nd half and hit a 3 pointer with 5 seconds remaining to tie the game and send it to OT. Wichita dominated the glass grabbing 56% of their missed shots (+11 rebounds overall) and had fewer turnovers. Charlotte attempted 38 foul shots (just 22 for Wichita) made 29 FT’s to just 18 for the Shockers which was a key difference. Needless to say the Shockers have been waiting for this home rematch. While Charlotte has faced the easiest schedule to date, Wichita State has faced the toughest and they rank as the 3rd best team in the AAC (Charlotte is 9th per KenPom). These teams are very similar offensive with both averaging 1.14 PPP (both top 100) but the Shockers have a big edge on defense. The 49ers rank 11th in the AAC in defensive efficiency and 276th nationally (Wichita is 106th in defensive efficiency). They also turn the ball over at a much higher rate than the Shockers (249th offensive turnover percentage for Charlotte and 52nd for Wichita). We’re getting the better rebounding team, who is better defensively, and turns the ball over at a much lower rated in this one. Wichita gets their revenge tonight with a double digit win.

#658 ASA PLAY ON USC +1.5 over Indiana, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Rough situation for IU who is playing their 2nd of back to back games on the West Coast and coming off an upset win @ UCLA. That game went to double OT with the Hoosiers pulling out a 98-97 win. They are not a deep team and 3 of their 5 starters played 44+ minutes in that win and they were missing starter Conerway (11 PPG - 3rd leading scorer). He’s most likely out again here but if he does play he won’t be 100% with a bad ankle. His loss could be key here for an IU team that logged big minutes on Saturday @ UCLA. It’s also IU’s 5th game in 15 days and 4 of those have come on the road. Their only other 2 true road wins came @ Maryland and @ Rutgers who have a combined record of 3-18 in Big 10 play. USC is off a 3 point home win vs Rutgers which looks like a close one but the Trojans led by 19 with just 14:00 minutes remaining and took their foot off the gas and allowed the Knights back in the game. Their previous 2 games were very solid as they beat Wisconsin on the road and lost by 1 point @ Iowa. This team is playing well right now and they are finally at full strength with starting PG Woods, who has played in less than half of their games, playing well and starting wing Arenas having played in the last 4 games after missing the first 18 games of the season. The Hoosiers live at the arc with 52% of their shots coming from deep (8th most in the nation) and USC defends the 3 point line very well allowing opponents to make only 29% (14th nationally). IU also fouls a lot with 23% of opponents points coming from the FT line and USC gets to the stripe a lot with 25% of their points coming from the FT line (16th nationally). This one sets up nicely for USC and we’ll grab the Trojans.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 10 PM ET - The Sixers lineup took a hit with the announcement that Paul George is suspended for a drug violation. I wonder if they’ll ever drug test LeBron? George had been playing well and it looked like the 76ers were rounding into form. Philly was playing well with a 6-4 SU record in their last 10 games, but a closer look reveals 9 of those ten were at home. Not only that, but only one of those six wins came against a team with a winning record. The Sixers went 10-7 SU in January with an average +/- of +2.4ppg. The Clippers have flipped the switch and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league. L.A. had won 16 of their last twenty games and then were coming off a loss in Denver most recently. They responded immediately last night with a big win at Phoenix and I expect them to ride momentum from the win over the Suns and parlay it into a home win over the Sixers too! The Clippers had the 9th best Net rating in the NBA in the month of January at +3.3 and were 6-1 SU in the month at home with an average MOV of +7.7ppg. L.A. They already started the new month with a blowout win and that was even without Harden (personal) who might be back here. Either way I like the home team here off the 24-point margin easy blowout win last night. Lay it with the Clippers.

#876 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -4.5 over Kansas, Monday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for Tech. They are coming off a loss as a favorite @ UCF on Saturday while Kansas had a huge home win over BYU on the same day. It was an absolute letdown spot for TT going on the road after upsetting Houston at home and this huge game with KU on deck. The Red Raiders have been very good to us cashing this month at home vs high level opponents BYU and Houston. Their offense has been simply outstanding ranking 9th nationally in efficiency, 21st in eFG%, 13th in 3 point FG% while averaging 84 PPG. At home those offensive numbers all rise including scoring moving up to 90 PPG. This team put up 90 points in their most recent home game vs a Houston team that leads the nation allowing 61 PPG! They have put up at least 1.20 PPP in 4 of their last 5 games including a massive number of 1.38 vs Houston and they are averaging 1.25 PPP at home this season. That’s the 18th best home offensive efficiency number in the country this season. Kansas is off an 8 point home win vs BYU (Tech beat BYU by 13 a few weeks ago). They now go on the road where their offensive efficiency numbers drop from 1.16 PPP at home to just 1.08 on the road and their average score on the road is 76-76 so a dead even PPG margin (not great). Their top player, Darryn Peterson, has been in and out of the line up all season with severe cramping issues and sat out the 2nd half vs BYU on Saturday. Just 48 hours later we doubt he’s able to play much in this one. The Jayhawks are just 3-3 in true road games this season and their 2 Big 12 road wins came @ KSU and @ Colorado, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-13 in league play. Texas Tech, on the other hand, is a perfect 11-0 at home with an average margin of victory at +20 PPG and all of their Big 12 home wins with the exception of 1 (vs Houston) have come by double digits. Tech roasted Kansas by 29 points here last year and while we wouldn’t anticipate that type of blowout here, we do expect a comfortable win and cover.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:10 pm ET - Two of the bigger markets square off Sunday in a West vs. East showdown when the Lakers travel to New York to face the Knicks. This will be L.A.’s 7th straight road game and it comes against a Knicks team that has won 5 straight. The Lakers have won 4 of their six road games on this trip but they lost to the two teams of the Knicks caliber (Cavs and Clippers). Los Angeles beat a bad Washington team most recently by 32-points but had lost prior to that game by 30 in Cleveland. The Lakers have an impressive SU road record of 17-10 SU but surprisingly have a negative scored margin despite the winning record. A big part of that is their strength of schedule on the road. New York on the other hand is 19-6 SU on their home court with the second highest average scoring differential of +10.5ppg in the Garden. The Knicks went through a mini-slump and lost 4 straight games but since, have ripped off 5 straight wins and all but one of those came by double-digits. These are two big brands with some of the biggest stars in the game, but the Knicks are significantly better with the 5th best overall efficiency differential compared to the Lakers 17th. This line is light according to our metrics and we will side with the home team Knicks in this one.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -12.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 3:40pm ET - The Bucks season is swirling down the drain as we speak with the trade talks surrounding the entire team and players potentially being dealt with Giannis. The root of the problem in Milwaukee though is GM Horst and head coach Doc Rivers. That is another story I can’t go into right now. As for today, at first glance this seems like a high number for Boston to cover but in reality, it’s not. The Celtics were just favored by 12-points at home against the Kings and even -10.5 recently versus the Pacers so this double-digit number is not out of line. The Bucks were also recently a +10.5 point dog in Philadelphia, lost by 17-points and the Sixers aren’t as good as the Celtics are right now. Boston has the second-best average scoring margin in the month of January overall and the 2nd best Net rating. The Bucks will have problems containing the Celtics offense in this one as they allow the 3rd most 3PT attempt rate at 43.5% and Boston takes the 3rd most 3-pointers in the league. Milwaukee’s defense overall isn’t good ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.173-points per possession on the season. Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league averaging 1.211PPP. The Bucks offense is even worse, ranking 23rd in oEFF and will have a tough time scoring against the C’s 12th ranked defense. Milwaukee is reliant on their 3PT shooting but the Celtics defend the arc as well as anyone in the NBA.

#823 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -13.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Purdue is off 3 straight losses @ UCLA by 1, vs Illinois by 6, and Indiana by 5. The Shot Quality scored for each of those games had the Boilers winning so it’s not as if they are playing terrible basketball. Head coach Matt Painter lit into his team after their most recent loss and was questioning their effort. You can bet this team will bring everything they have for this game. They get a reprieve facing a 1-8 Maryland team whose only Big 10 win was vs Penn State. Since losing their leading scorer and rebounder, Pharrel Payne, to an injury in mid December the Terps are 2-7 with their closest loss being 8 points. All 8 of their Big 10 losses have come by double digits. When stepping up in class vs the top teams in the conference, Maryland has lost vs Michigan St by 43, Illinois by 19, and Michigan by 18. Their average loss margin in Big 10 play is -19.5 points. In conference play they rank 17th in offensive efficiency (out of 18), 16th in defensive efficiency, 16th in 3 point FG% and dead last in FT% making only 66% from the stripe. Purdue ranks 2nd in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency, 8th nationally in FG% and they average 83 PPG. They should shred this Maryland defense that ranks 323rd in defensive FG% and they allow 79 PPG. On the other end, the Terps rank 351st (out of 365) in FG% and they only make 23 shots per gam on average (341st). They’ll need to get to the FT line a lot (and make them which they aren’t great at) but Purdue is very good at limiting opponents foul shots. Only 14% of opponents points come from the FT line (17th best in the country). If Purdue is focused, which we full expect them to be, this should be a runaway. We don’t lay points like this on the road very often but we think it’s warranted here.

#728 ASA PLAY ON San Diego -2 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - San Diego has a 10-13 record but they continue to be undervalued with a 13-8 ATS record and at home they are 9-2 ATS. They are 4-2 at home in WCC play with their only losses coming vs Gonzaga and Santa Clara who are 1st and 2nd in the standings and have a combined conference record of 18-1. They are catching the Beavers (9-14 ATS record) off a rare upset win @ Loyola Marymount on Wednesday and this will be OSU’s 3rd straight road game. In their upset win on Wednesday, the Beavs hit nearly 50% of their shots and over 40% from deep. We don’t expect the same results here as Oregon State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country making just 42% of their shots on the season (318th). They needed to shoot lights out in that 3 points win because they turned the ball over on nearly 25% of their possessions which has been a problem all season. OSU ranks 250th in offensive turnover percentage on the season and they are facing a San Diego defense that thrives on creating turnovers ranking top 35 in the country. The Toreros problem this year is when they face good rebounding teams they get overwhelmed on the boards. That won’t be the case here as Oregon State is a poor rebounding team as well ranking 335th in offensive rebound percentage and 281st in defensive rebound percentage. At home San Diego is shooting 40% from deep and averaging 82 PPG. They should do well offensively vs an OSU team that is allowing 80 PPG on the road this season. On the other end of the court, the Beavers are only averaging 67 PPG on the road and we don’t think they can keep up in this game. San Diego has played the tougher schedule in WCC play yet they still have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers when compared to the Beavers. This line it too short and we’ll take advantage of it. San Diego gets the home win and cover.

#720 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Rough situation for Indiana coming off huge upset home win over arch rival Purdue on Tuesday and now making the long travel to the West Coast. The Hoosiers are 2-3 on the road in Big 10 play with their only 2 wins coming @ Rutgers and @ Maryland, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference along with Penn St. The Bruins have won 5 of their last 6 games and all 3 of their Big 10 losses came in long travel trips @ Iowa, @ Wisconsin, and @ Ohio State. UCLA is 12-0 at home and they’ve settled in nicely since coming back from their 2 long road trips going 3-0 since losing @ OSU. The UCLA defense has really stepped up as of late holding 4 of their last 6 opponents to 1.00 PPP or less since head coach Mick Cronin ripped into them after their loss @ Wisconsin. They now rank 3rd in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed and 2nd in 3 point FG% allowed (just 29%) which will be a big factor here as the Hoosiers shoot a lot of 3’s. In fact, over 53% of their shots have come from deep in conference play which is 2nd most in the league. At home the Bruins have been even better limiting opponents to just 26% from beyond the arc and IU hasn’t been great on the road making only 31% of their triples. UCLA hasn’t allowed more than 67 points in any of their Big 10 home games and they are averaging 81 PPG at home this season on 50% shooting. There is a chance UCLA’s Skyy Clark comes back for this game (13 PPG) after missing 7 straight. However, we are handicapping this game as if he will not play and if he does it’s simply a bonus. This is an unfamiliar venue for IU as they have not played @ Pauley Pavilion since 2007. The Hoosiers are shooting just 42% on the road this year and we think they’ll struggle to even get to that number here. We’ll lay the small number with the Bruins at home.

#648 ASA PLAY ON Arizona St +14.5 over Arizona, Saturday at 2 PM ET - ASU is having a disappointing season (11-10 record) but this is their Super Bowl. The Devils have been playing better basketball over the last week and they’ve already proven they can hang with the Wildcats. These 2 met a few weeks ago @ Arizona and the Cats came away with a tight 89-82 home win and Zona led by just 3 with under 1:00 remining in the game. ASU hung in the entire game, Arizona’s largest lead was 12 points, despite the Cats shooting 54% from the field and making 14 more FT’s compared to the Sun Devils. Head coach Bobby Hurley laid into his team after their home loss vs West Virginia on January 21st and they’ve since had very solid back to back efforts beating a good Cincinnati team by double digits and then losing by 3 @ UCF who has a 16-4 record. In that game @ UCF the Knights led for only 28% of the game and ASU actually led by 12 with just 6:00 minutes remaining. They should be on a 2-0 run heading into this one. Arizona is off a huge game @ BYU earlier this week and they picked up a 3 point win. Now on the 2nd of back to back road games and while they are undefeated, the Wildcats have played the easiest strength of schedule in the Big 12. They have played 4 conference road games and they only team they’ve beaten away from home by more than this spread (currently 15.5) was @ Utah (won by 19) who ranks as the worst team in the Big 12 by a fairly wide margin per KenPom. Arizona has beaten ASU in Tempe by more than 13 points just once in the last 12 meetings and the Sun Devils have covered 8 of their 12 games this year as an underdog (2-0 ATS as a home dog this season). We think ASU keeps this close similar to the first meeting and we’ll grab these generous points.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs 12pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets are catching +4.5 at home against the San Antonio Spurs early this afternoon tilt. San Antonio rolls in at 32-15, sitting pretty near the top of the West, but dig deeper and the shine fades: they've gone a middling 9-8 SU their last 17 games, alternating wins and losses over the past two weeks with setbacks to squads like Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans that aren’t playing near as well as the Hornets are right now. No back-to-back road wins since before the holidays, and while their road numbers look solid (15-9 SU away, +3.6 eDIFF on the road, +3.9 average scoring margin), that margin won't reliably cover a -4.5 spread against a red-hot Hornets. Meanwhile, the Hornets (21-28) are the hottest story in the East right now, riding a five-game win streak and leading the NBA in net rating for January. Their season eDIFF sits at +1.6 (12th league-wide), but over the last five? A blistering +17.6 eDIFF, second only to the Knicks. Charlotte's offense ranks fifth in 3P% at 37.3%, primed to exploit a Spurs perimeter D that's middle-of-the-pack (17th, allowing 36% from deep). The Hornets have covered in two of their last three as home dogs and we expect them to keep this game close throughout or win outright.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +1.5 over Michigan, Friday at 8 PM ET - These 2 are tied atop the Big 10 with 9-1 conference records. Michigan went through a stretch earlier in the season where they were destroying everyone. They have come back to earth. However, they continue to be overvalued despite losing 7 straight games ATS. They lost at home vs Wisconsin for their only setback this season but they’ve had some close calls as of late squeaking by Penn State on the road by 2 points and probably should have lost at home over the weekend vs an undermanned Nebraska team. The Huskers are obviously very good this year, but they had the flu bug running through the team over the weekend, were without 2 key starters who combined to average 26 PPG, and they still led @ Michigan for a whopping 91% of the game. The Wolverines got the benefit of the home court whistle as well making 19 FT’s to just 3 for Nebraska yet still didn’t lead at all in the 2nd half until just over 1:00 remaining in the game. Their road slate thus far in conference play has been extremely easy as they’ve faced Maryland, PSU, Oregon, and Washington and they didn’t cover any of those games. The Wolverines simply haven’t been playing as well as they were earlier and they are overdue for a loss. We think it comes here. MSU has nearly the same record 19-2 compared to 19-1 for Michigan, yet they are not getting the same respect being tabbed as a home underdog in this game (opening line was MSU +1.5). Their only 2 losses came by 6 points vs Duke and by 2 points @ Nebraska. The Spartans are 7-3 ATS as a dog since the start of last season and they’ve been a home dog just ONCE in Big 10 play since the start of the 2022 season and they covered that game vs Purdue. MSU is the best defense across the board in Big 10 play ranking 1st in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 2 point and 3 point FG% allowed. They are also the better rebounding team ranking 1st in defensive and 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage. Sparty is the better FT shooting team and they have better efficiency margins in league play (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). MSU has won 9 straight vs Michigan at the Breslin Center and their last loss in this series at home was back in 2017. We like Michigan State to win this one at home.

ASA NBA play on New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 7:30 p.m. ET - Injuries continue to wreck the Grizzlies — they're missing Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), Santi Aldama (knee), Brandon Clarke (calf), and Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) again, with Ty Jerome listed as doubtful (calf). That's a brutal hit to their backcourt, frontcourt depth, and interior presence. Memphis has dropped four straight, including a home loss to these same Pelicans just a week ago. Meanwhile, New Orleans is a bad team at 12-37, worst in the West, but they're showing signs of life. They've gone 2-1 in their last three straight up (the loss coming against the defending champs OKC Thunder), and over the last ten games they've won four while posting a more respectable net rating (18th league-wide) compared to Memphis sitting at 24th. The Pels attack the rim at an elite clip (No. 1 in frequency), which is bad news for a Grizzlies defense that's ranked 24th against rim attacks and 25th in three-point attempts allowed. Memphis loves post-ups (second in frequency), but without their bigs and Morant creating chaos, that identity gets neutralized quickly in NOLA's paint-focused scheme. The Pels shoot threes like they're allergic (dead last percentage), but they don't need to bomb from deep here — just keep pounding inside against a shorthanded, vulnerable Memphis frontcourt. Head-to-head, Grizz have taken two of three this season, but the latest meeting flipped the script with NOLA winning outright. This line feels light given Memphis' depletion and road struggles (1-5 SU road/neutral games). Pelicans cover the -2 at home.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Washington +13 over Illinois, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Rough spot for the Illini as they are coming off an upset win on the road @ Purdue and they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Nebraska in 3 days. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play (2-2 ATS) but they’ve faced a very easy slate already facing 3 of the league’s 5 lowest rated teams at home (Rutgers, Maryland, and Minnesota). They are 8-1 overall in conference play but they’ve faced the 16th most difficult slate out of 18 teams. 6 of their 8 conference wins have come by 11 points or less and the only 2 blowouts on their Big 10 resume were vs Rutgers and Maryland ranked 16th and 17th in the conference. Washington is 11-9 overall and 3-6 in Big 10 play but they’ve been competitive for the most part. 5 of their 6 conference losses have come by 10 points or less and they have a road win @ USC (3-1 ATS on Big 10 road). Their 3 road losses in Big 10 play came vs high level teams @ Nebraska, @ Purdue, and @ Indiana, all by 10 points or less. The Huskies are averaging 75 PPG on the road in Big 10 games and their schedule has laid out nicely entering this game with 4 of their last 5 coming at home and they’ve only played 1 road game since January 7th. The Illini are still missing starting PG and team leader Boswell (missed last 2 games) which will affect them here. Freshman Wagler stepped in vs Purdue and was 9 of 11 from the field and 11 of 13 from the FT line and put up a ridiculous 46 points in that wins. We expect him to come back to earth here and wouldn’t be surprised if Illinois sleep walks through this one as they are waiting for their huge game on Sunday vs Nebraska. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Hofstra -4.5 over Charleston, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Hofstra as they sit 2 games behind Charleston in the CAA standings. Hofstra started the conference season with 4 straight wins and they’ve since lost 4 in a row, 3 coming on the road to sit in 4th place at 4-4. Charleston is 6-2 but they’ve played the 11th easiest strength of schedule in CAA play thus far (Hofstra’s SOS is 3rd) and they are just 1-2 on the road in league games. Their only road win in conference play was @ Elon by 4 points in a game the Cougars made 13 more FT’s yet it still went to the wire. That game was back in December and they’ve since lost their 2 road games @ Towson and @ Stony Brook. Despite their 4 straight losses, Hofstra still rates per KenPom as the best team in the CAA and 114th in the country. This team is much better than their record. They are 13-8 on the year overall and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or less with 7 of those coming on the road. Despite playing an overall strength of schedule nearly 100 spots higher than Charleston, Hofstra has the better straight FG% numbers both offensive and defensively. They are the much better offense efficiency wise and the 2 defense are almost dead even when it comes to efficiency. The Pride should have a big advantage from beyond the arc where they shoot 38% on the year (20th in the country) while Charleston only makes 31% (307th). They also hit 77% of their FT’s if they need to ice this one late. Our power ratings have the Pride as a 7 point favorite in this game and we’re getting some nice value with their losing streak playing a factor and Charleston has won 8 of their last 10 which has also pushed this number lower than it should be. Absolute must win for Hofstra and we’ll lay it.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Washington St -1.5 over Seattle, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Revenger for Washington State who lost @ Seattle back on December 30th by a final score of 69-55. The Cougars shot well below their season averages across the board in that making only 30% of their shots (they average 47%), just 15% of their 3’s (they average 36%) and only 57% of their FT’s (they average 73%). Wazzu dominated the boards in that game gathering 50% of their misses and totaling 50 boards to just 23 for Seattle. We don’t expect that to change in this game as the Redhawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation ranking outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Expect the Cougars to handle the glass again giving them multiple extra possessions. What we do expect to change in Washington State’s terrible shooting from the first match up. At home they hit over 48% on the season, 37% from deep while averaging 80 PPG. Seattle’s offense has been poor ranking 11th in the West Coast Conference (out of 12 teams) averaging a poor 0.93 PPP in league play. They are also 11th in eFG%, 10th in 3 point FG%, and making only 69% of the FT’s in WCC play. Seattle has been held under 60 points in nearly half of the WCC games (4) and they are 0-4 on the road in conference play. On the other hand, since their loss vs Seattle in which they scored only 55 points, Wazzu has scored at least 78 points in 6 of 7 games. The only team to hold them below during that stretch was Gonzaga which is also the Cougars only home conference loss this season. These 2 have met just 5 times since 1990 (all from 2017 to current) and the home team has won all 5 meetings. We like Washington State to get the win here.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8pm ET - Scheduling and rest will play an important role in tonight’s outcome between these two Eastern Conference foes. Philly is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days. Milwaukee had their most recent game cancelled with poor weather so they’ve had 4 full days off going into tonight. The Bucks have covered 6 of their last 8 in that scenario dating back to 2023. Granted, the Bucks will be without Giannis tonight who is expected to miss the next 6 weeks with an injury but there is still enough talent on this roster to keep tonight’s game within double-digits. Milwaukee is 11-12 ATS on the road this season with an average negative margin of -4.9ppg, good enough for a cover in this one. The Sixers are 11-14 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of -0.8ppg. Philadelphia doesn’t shoot it great at 45.6% (26th) which makes it difficult to cover big numbers. In fact, the 76ers have only been double-digit chalks 5 times this season. Within the past 2 weeks the 76ers were -7 at home against the Pacers and won by 9-points. The Bucks without Giannis grade out better than Indiana. The Bucks have been double-digit dogs just 3 times this season and they’ve covered all three. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8:10 pm ET - Why are the Lakers favored here? This line makes absolutely no sense given the current play of both teams. Chicago has won 4 straight games and 6 of their last eight. Included in that run are impressive wins over the Clippers, T’Wolves and most recently the Celtics. In fact, in the games against the Celtics on Saturday the Bulls were +3.5-points at home and Boston grades out significantly higher in our power rating than the Lakers. Chicago has the 3rd best average scoring differential in the NBA over the past 5-games at +11.0ppg. In that same stretch of games, they have the best overall eFG% at 60.9% and tonight they face a Lakers D that is 25th in defensive net rating on the season. L.A. ranks 27th in opponents’ FG% allowed at 48.6% and is 25th in 3PT% D. The Bulls are top 10 in both overall team FG% for the year and 3PT%. The Lakers are coming off a win in Dallas on Saturday which was a meaningful game to Luka against his old mates. The Lakers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine road games and the 3 wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Mavs, Nuggets w/out Jokic and Pelicans. Chicago has won 7 of their last eight at home. Back the Bulls in this one.

Italian Serie A - #210337 ASA PLAY ON Udinese Goal Line Pick'em (-110) over Hellas Verona, Monday at 2:45 PM ET - We go with the goal line here as that means a draw would be a push for our bet.  Of course we make this bet expecting the win for Udinese but it is nice to have that extra safety net of a draw being a push.  Hellas Verona is struggling badly and now just lost their best playmaker on offense too as Geovane ended up signing with Napoli!  The hosts are mired in a 6-match winless run with 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 matches.  Udinese is off a loss to a tough Inter Milan side but this followed a stretch in which they lost only twice in six matches and they are going to take advantage of facing a struggling team here.  The home team has only won once in the last seven meetings between these clubs and we see that trend continuing here as the slide for Hellas Verona is made even worse after losing Geovane.  Road team gets the win!  Bet Udinese on the goal line. 

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 9 :10pm ET - Even without Kawhi Leonard we like the Clippers minus the points over the reeling Nets. These two teams are heading in direct opposite directions right now with the Clippers on a 14-3 SU streak, the Nets are 2-12 SU their last 14. L.A. is 7-1 SU their last eight at home with a net rating of +9.5, the 3rd best differential in the NBA over that span of games. The Clippers an eFG% of 55.9% in that same 8-game stretch and have been shooting lights out. When it comes to Net ratings, only the Jazz have a worse number than the Nets who are minus -10.2 over their last 15 games. Brooklyn has an average loss margin of -9.9ppg over that same 15-game period. The Clippers 8-1 SU streak at home is really impressive when you consider 7 of those eight wins all came by 8 or more points. Even without Leonard tonight we like the Clippers to notch a double-digit win over the struggling Nets.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 5:30 pm ET - The Warriors season took a significant hit when they lost Jimmy Butler for the season to a knee injury. Contrary to what you might think, the immediate impact of his loss has come on the defensive end of the court as they’ve given up 145 and 123 points in their last two games. Those numbers came against two teams that rank in the bottom of the league in offensive net ratings (Dallas, Toronto). Minnesota is mired in their own losing streak that currently stands at 4 games, but in their defense three of those came against a red hot Bulls team, the Spurs and the Rockets. The Wolves are the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and rank 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.136PPP. In fact, the Wolves are one of only three teams in the NBA to rank top 10 in both oEFF and dEFF. Not only will we see a continued decline in the Warriors defensive statistics, but they’ll suffer offensively too without Butlers 20ppg and 5.6rpg. Minnesota clearly gets up for games against the Warriors as they’ve now won 5 straight in the series and all of those W’s have come by 5 or more points. Lay it here with Minnesota.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - The Broncos lost starting QB Nix to an ankle injury in the Divisional round and he is done for the season. They now turn to back up Jarrett Stidham who is a 6 year NFL veteran and has been the back up for 3 years in Denver so he’s more than familiar with head coach Sean Payton’s system. We like the fact that the Bronco staff has a full week to get him ready and set up a gameplan and the New England defense really doesn’t know what they are preparing to face. This line has moved too much based on that injury in our opinion. Denver was going to be a 1.5 to 2 point favorite vs New England with Nix at QB and now +4.5? That’s nearly a TD move and let’s face it, Nix is a pretty average QB ranking 25th in completion percentage, 25th in passer rating, and 15th in QBR. This team leans on their defense and that hasn’t changed. They rank #1 in YPP allowed, #2 in YPG allowed and rushing YPG allowed, and #3 in scoring. Denver is also the best pass rushing team in the NFL (sacks per game and sack percentage) and the Pats have really struggled with that so far in the playoffs. After facing a number of poor defenses this year due to their light schedule (worst in the NFL), New England finally faced 2 high level defenses in the Chargers and Texans in the playoffs (the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season) and allowed 10 combined sacks and 16 TFL’s in those games. They’ll struggle to keep QB Maye clean in this one and running on this Denver team is tough as they allow just 96 YPG rushing (2nd in the NFL). Last week Maye had only 168 yards passing and the Pats totaled only 248 yards on 3.9 YPP but benefited from 5 Houston turnovers including a pick 6. The Patriots now go on the road for the first time in the playoffs with Maye making his first ever playoff road start vs one of the best defenses in the league. NFL playoff home dogs of 4 points or more are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years and home teams in the AFC Championship round are 30-15 SU. The Broncos also have an extra day of rest playing last Saturday (Pats played on Sunday) and while that may not seem like a huge deal, teams with the extra rest in the Championship round are 27-17 SU and if they are at home that improves to 21-7. We think this game goes to the wire and we like Denver and the points at home.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Idaho -2 over Portland State, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Portland State sits in first place in the Big Sky with a perfect 6-0 record. Problem is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference having faced only 1 of the top 5 teams in the league per KenPom and that was a 3 point home win vs Northern Colorado. The overall combined conference record of the teams they’ve beaten in the Big Sky this year is just 12-28. They have 3 road wins in conference play but all have come vs the bottom half of the league with 2 coming in OT and the other by 4 points. Their most recent game came @ Eastern Washington on Thursday night which was a 4 point Portland State win vs an EWU team that has a 4-15 record. The Vikings will now be on the road again taking on Idaho less than 48 hours after playing @ Eastern Washington. Idaho is off a home win on Thursday so they are in a much better situational spot playing their 2nd straight home game. The Vandals are 7-1 at home this year including a win over Montana State who is rated as the best team in the Big Sky per KenPom. Their only home loss came vs Montana, who is 5-2 in the league, in a game the Grizzlies shot 50% from the field compared to 39% for Idaho and the Vandal made only 4 of 23 from beyond the arc. Uncharacteristic of a team that shoots over 50% and home and makes 41% of their triples. In that loss home loss, Idaho was a 4.5 point favorite vs a Montana team that actually ranks a few spots higher than this Portland State team yet they are laying a lighter number here. Value is on Idaho in this game. The Vikings are overvalued because of their conference record and taking a look over their entire season they only have 1 win vs a team ranked in the top 200 (Idaho is 189th). We’ll take the Vandals at home in this one.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We like taking a strong look at very good teams coming off a loss and that’s what we have here with Purdue. The Boilers lost @ UCLA 69-67 on Tuesday in a game where the Bruins shot 57% from the field (45% for Purdue) and 45% from beyond the arc (26% for Purdue). Even with the big advantage in shooting percentages, the Bruins led for only 24% of the game and needed a 3 pointer with just 8 seconds left to get the win. The Boilers are now back at home where they are 10-1 this season (only loss to Iowa St) and 39-3 since the start of the 2023 season. Since the start of the 2021 season, when Purdue is at home and coming off a loss the previous game they are 12-1 SU winning by an average margin of +18 PPG and 9 of those 12 wins have come by double digits. They are facing an Illinois team that has won 8 in a row but will be shorthanded in this game. They just lost their starting PG Boswell (14 PPG) who is not only their veteran leader but also one of the better defensive guards in the Big 10. He injured his hand in practice leading up to their most recent game at home vs Maryland and will be out at least a month. The Illini were lucky to be at home and facing one of the worst teams in the Big 10 on Wednesday and they picked up a win. Now on the road in this situation without Boswell will make it very tough. Without Boswell, they really don’t have a true point guard with any experience on the roster which will make it very tough containing Purdue’s Braden Smith, one of the top PG’s in the country. This is a revenge game from last year as the Illini took the only meeting (in Champaign) by a final score of 88-80. Since the start of the 2009 season, these 2 Big 10 rivals have met 11 times in West Lafayette with the Boilermakers winning 10 of those games. We’ll lay the small number with Purdue at home on Saturday.

#782 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +1.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Texas Tech continues to be undervalued in our opinion and they are a very dangerous team, especially at home. We were on Tech last weekend at home vs a high level BYU team and the Red Raiders coasted to a 14 point win. Tech was a 3.5 point favorite in that game and here they are getting points at home vs a Houston team that is only ranked 10 spots higher than BYU per KenPom. These 2 already met this season @ Houston earlier this monthwith the Cougars winning a tight one 69-65. The Cougs led for only 37% of that game a thome and actually trailed for 10 of the final 12 minutes of that game. Houston was favored by 7 to 7.5 in that game so this one should be a pick-em or Tech -1 in our opinion (and based on our power ratings). The Raiders are 15-4 on the season with all of their losses coming away from home (road or neutral) vs high level opponents (Houston, Purdue, Illinois, and Arkansas). They are 10-0 at home this season and 25-3 here since the start of last season. Houston is 17-1 but this will easily be their toughest game of the season in our opinion. They’ve only played 2 true road games on the year @ Cincinnati and @ Baylor who both rank outside the top 45 per KenPom. The Red Raiders are the better shooting team ranking 29th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG% while Houston ranks 147th and 166th respectively in those 2 key stats. Defensively, Houston has better defensive numbers, however Tech has jumped into the top 30 in defensive efficiency playing great on that end of the court over their last 8 games. The Raiders have now held 8 straight opponents below their season offensive efficiency averages and they held the Cougars to 1.04 PPP in their first meeting in Houston, well below their average of 1.23 PPP. Texas Tech already has high level wins this season over Duke and BYU and we expect them to pull the “upset” on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10pm ET - I knew this was a bad number immediately and the Heat shouldn’t be favored on the road against the Blazers and to no surprise the line moved quickly to Portland as the favorite. The Blazers are playing well right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games overall and they’ve won 7 of their last eight at home. Portland has the 8th best Net rating of +5.3 in the NBA over that 10-games span. On the flip side, the Heat are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games and they have the 26th worst Net rating in that time frame of -5.9. Miami has been even worse on the road in recent games with a 1-4 SU record their last 5 away from home with a negative Net rating of minus -13.7. Earlier this season the Heat were +3.5 points at home against the Blazers and won 136-131. This time around it’s the home team Blazers that notch the win.

#792 ASA PLAY ON William & Mary +1.5 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UNCW has an impressive 17-2 overall record (5-0 in the CAA) but they are drastically overvalued right now in our opinion. Their strength of schedule for the year is 357th and they haven't faced a single team this year ranked in the top 145 per KenPom. Not only that, 13 of their 19 opponents so far this year are currently ranked outside the top 200. William and Mary will be the highest rated team they’ve faced this season (142nd). In CAA play they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule thus far, not facing a single team in the top 6 of the conference (per KenPom) until tonight. W&M is the 2nd highest rated team in the Colonial and in need of a win after losing 3 of their last 4 games. All of their losses have come on the road/neutral (5-6 record) but W&M is a perfect 7-0 at home this season. The Tribe are one of the top shooting teams in the country (top 55 in FG%) and at home they have been fantastic offensively shooting almost 54% and scoring 93 PPG. UNCW has played 1 top 150 team on the road this year and lost (@ Kent State) and their 3 CAA road games have come vs 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. This team is overdue to get clipped and we like William & Mary to win this one at home.

#744 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -14.5 over Fresno State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. We’re getting a very good team at home and coming off a tight loss @ San Diego State 83-79. That pushed SDSU to the top of the MWC with a 7-0 record while New Mexico, the 2nd highest rated team in the conference, dropped to 5-2. The Lobos bounced back nicely after their first MWC loss to beat Wyoming by 20 points at home and we see a similar result for tonight. They are a perfect 3-0 at home in league play with their wins coming 23, 23, and 20 points and 2 of those wins were vs top 100 teams (Wyoming & Grand Canyon). Their opponent tonight, Fresno State, ranks 139th and is the 3rd worst team in the conference per KenPom’s power ratings. The Bulldogs are coming off back to back home wins as underdogs vs Wyoming and CSU and this could be a tough spot for them. They are 1-4 on the road this season with their only win coming vs San Jose State who is the 2nd worst team in the MWC. The Dogs are not a great shooting team including from deep where they make just 31% of their triples (303rd in the country). This is a bad match up vs an athletic, high level defense in New Mexico. The Lobos rank 29th in defensive efficiency, 51st in eFG% allowed, 18th in 3 point FG% allowed and 22nd in scoring defense allowing just 67 PPG & only 63 PPG at home. Fresno also turns the ball over a lot at almost 20% (313th) and they are up against it tonight as NM creates turnovers at a high rate (20%). That should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Lobos. The closest comparison to New Mexico defensively in the conference would be San Diego State and Fresno scored only 52 points, lost that game by 19 points (trailed by 29 in the 2nd half) and coughed the ball up at a 23% rate. The last 2 years here at the Pit, New Mexico was favored by 21 and 17 points vs Fresno State and won those games by 28 and 21 points respectively. Now we’re getting them at a much lower number. New Mexico rolls in this game.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa -5.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tulsa (3-2 in the AAC) sits one game behind Memphis (4-1) so they can ill afford to lose this game at home. Tulsa is 15-3 overall and despite their 2 conference losses they rank as the best team in the AAC per KenPom (62nd nationally) by quite a wide margin (18 spots higher than 2nd best team South Florida). 2 of their 3 losses have come by 5 points or less. The Golden Hurricanes are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 10th in eFG% and 2nd in the country from beyond the arc making just over 41%. They are in the top 35 in scoring putting up 88 PPG and at home that number jumps to 97 PPG. Let’s not leave out the FT line as Memphis fouls a lot (22% of opponents points come from the charity stripe) and Tulsa makes 79% of their freebies compared to 68% for the Tigers. Memphis is a poor offensive team this season ranking 250th in eFG% and 213th in 3 point FG%. They also turn the ball over at a very high rate of 20% (337th in the country). The Tigers defense has been very solid this year but their defensive road numbers have dropped off a cliff compared to their home numbers. They allow opponents to shoot just 37% at home and that number rises to 46% in their road games. Their 3 point defense at home allows just 24% however on the road that jumps to almost 37%. Not great facing one of the best shooting teams in the country. Lastly, scoring wise Memphis allows 67 PPG at home on 0.90 PPP and 80 PPG on the road on 1.12 PPP. The Tigers are just 1-6 in their games away from home this year (road & neutral) with their only win coming by 6 points @ Rice who ranks as the 3rd worst team in the conference. This is a game Tulsa has been waiting for as they’ve lost 5 straight vs Memphis with their last win coming in 2021. Even though Memphis had much higher rated teams than they do now for those 5 games, 3 of them were decided by 3 points or less. Tulsa is the better team this year and we’ll lay it.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +1.5 over Georgia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for Mizzou coming off a road loss @ LSU facing UGA who is coming off a big home win vs Arkansas. We’re getting excellent value here on the Tigers at home where they are 11-0 this season including wins over high level opponents Florida & Auburn. In fact, the Gators currently rank 9th per KenPom and have only 1 loss since December 9th and that was @ Missouri. The Tigers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in the country averaging 89 PPG at home and just 68 PPG on the road. Their average margin of their home games is +20 PPG while on the road they are -8 PPG. Missouri is one of the best shooting teams in the country hitting 51% of their shots (13th nationally) but at home that number jumps to almost 56% including 39% from 3. The only 2 teams in the country that shoot a higher percentage in their home games are Arizona and Gonzaga. UGA has only played 3 true road games this season and while they are 2-1 in those games, their 2 wins came vs South Carolina (2nd lowest rated team in the SEC) in a game they only led for 33% of the time and vs Florida State who is 7-11 and rated 112th nationally. Their one good opponent on the road was @ Florida who rolled the Bulldogs 92-77. The Dawgs have not had much success on the road in SEC play winning just 7 of their conference road 38 games since the start of the 2021 season. We like Missouri to win this one at home.

ASA play on: Chicago Bulls -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 8PM ET - The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Washington on Monday, and they've struggled significantly in these situations this season. They've gone 1-5 straight up when playing without rest, with an average loss margin of -6.3 points per game on the second day of a back-to-back — that's a clear fatigue and performance drop-off for a road-weary squad. Meanwhile, the Bulls are rolling at home. They just crushed the Nets by 22 points on Sunday, extending their current home winning streak to 3 straight. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 at the United Center. We like the Bulls at home here.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -4 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The biggest game on the docket tonight is this one and we will be on the home team minus the points. San Antonio is at a clear scheduling disadvantage here having played last night against the Jazz. This will also be the Spurs 3rd game in 4 nights, 4th in six days AND 7th in eleven days. Absolutely a horrible schedule situation for San Antonio. Meanwhile the Rockets have been at home since Jan 13th and have 1 day rest for tonight. Houston is 14-3 SU on their home court and the three losses have come to the three best teams in the NBA (Det, OKC, Denver) who have a combined 96-32 record. The Rockets average Margin of Victory at home is +9.1ppg this season. The Spurs are a very good road team at 13-8 SU this season but this is a tough spot. Plus, they beat the Rockets earlier this season and hold a 3.5 game lead in the division. The Rockets have an efficiency edge defensively, the Spurs have a slight advantage offensively. The advantage the Rockets can use to their advantage tonight will be 3-point shooting. The Rockets have the 6th best 3PT% (37%) going up against a Spurs D that allows 36.1% (18th). The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five in this State rivalry.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Northern Colorado -2.5 over Montana St, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northern Colorado has lost 7 of their last 9 games and they are in desperate need of a win at home tonight. In their most recent game they blew an 18 point lead with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game in an OT loss @ Sacramento State. Montana State, on the other hand, comes in winning 6 of their last 7 games giving us some nice line value here on Northern Colorado. Rough situational spot for Montana State as well as they just played host to their arch rival Montana on Saturday (48 hours ago) and picked up a win. That’s always their biggest games (play twice a year) of the season and even more so this year as the Bobcats lost both meetings with Montana last year so they were ultra focused on getting a win on Saturday. This is absolutely a letdown spot for Montana State on the road where they are 3-7 on the season in a short turnaround. MSU’s 3 road wins have come against teams that are all ranked 225th or lower per KenPom (Northern Colorado ranks 171). They’ll definitely get the Bears best effort at home here after losing @ Montana State on January 1st. The Bobcats made 10 three point shots in that win vs a Northern Colorado team that ranks top 25 in defending the arc allowing 6 made 3’s per game on 29% shooting. We don’t expect a duplicate shooting performance from Montana State on the road where they make only 32% of their triples compared to 37% at home. Northern Colorado is a very good offensive team ranking top 50 in shooting %, 3 point FG%, and scoring. At home they are hitting 52% of their shots, 39% of their 3s, and averaging 89 PPG. The Bears get their revenge from a few weeks ago vs a Montana State team that might not be completely focused on this one.

#287 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +7.5 over Indiana, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Hoosiers have been good to us in their playoff run (we used them in both games and won) but now they’re getting too much respect in our opinion. From a pure line value situation, the Canes are definitely the play here. Indiana was a 7.5 point favorite in their first CFP game vs Alabama who we have power rated a full TD less then the Canes. But in this game, Miami is a larger dog than Bama was vs IU? In their most recent game, the Hoosiers were 3.5 point favorite vs Oregon, a team we have rated almost dead with Miami yet the Cants are getting 5 more points in this game? You get the point. Now the Hoosiers rolled in those 2 games but Alabama wasn’t good enough to be in the playoffs and shouldn’t have been with 3 losses. The Oregon win got out of control quickly with IU taking a pick 6 to the house on the first play of the game and on top of that had TD drives of 3 yards, 4 yards, and 19 yards following Duck turnovers. The Hoosiers jumped out to a big lead because of that and Oregon was chasing the whole game and it basically took the Duck rushing attack out of play. From a pure yardage vantage point, the Ducks actually outgained IU 378 to 362. Let’s not discount what Miami has done in the CFB. Won @ Texas A&M, beat Ohio State, and then topped an Ole Miss team that beat Georgia in their previous CFP game. They’ve definitely had the tougher route in the playoffs to this point and proven they can take down anyone. The Canes defense is elite allowing 44 points in their 3 playoff games (14 PPG). Miami is as good as any team in the country on the offensive and defensive lines so we don’t see IU with an advantage there as they had in their first 2 games. If the Hurricanes can establish a running game, they’ve averaged 175 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games, and not turn the ball over they’ve got a shot at the upset. Veteran QB Beck can definitely do enough to keep them in this game if complimented with an adequate run game. Let’s also not forget, this game is in Hard Rock Stadium which is Miami’s home field. The Canes were tabbed as underdogs in 3 of their 15 games this season and won all 3 outright. They are as talented as any team in the country and we think they give Indiana a run here. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 1pm ET - One of my rules on this date is to back the Hawks who are 23-11 SU their last 34 on MLK day. It just so happens that we get a great situational bet too as the Hawks are off a blowout loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Hawks lost by 26-points in that game, but it wasn’t that close as the Celtics led by as many as 43 points. Today they bounce back against a struggling Bucks team that needs to fire their head coach and the GM who hired him. That’s a story for another day. The Hawks have the slightly better efficiency differential overall on the season at -0.9 compared to the Bucks at minus -1.4. The Bucks live and die by the 3-pointer but the Hawks allow 35.6% from deep which ranks 14th in the league. Atlanta has added scoring with McCollum and Kispert who are both great compliments for the 8th best 3PT% shooting team in the NBA. The Bucks don’t defend the arc well ranking 23rd in 3PT% D. In this early matinee we like the home team Hawks.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 9 PM ET - Both teams are currently playing well right now but we like the Kings in this situation as the Blazers are in a tough scheduling spot. Portland played a big game against the Lakers last night and will be playing their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento meanwhile was off yesterday and have been at home since Jan 11th. The Kings have played without All-Star center Sabonis for most of the season but he’s back now along with Zach LaVine who missed time. Sacto has won 4 straight games and 3 of those four were legit as they came against the Lakers, Knicks and Rockets. Portland is playing well too with a 7-2 SU record in their last nine games but they will be missing a key offensive piece in this game with Avdija not expected to play as of this writing. Portland isn’t a great road team to begin with at 9-12 SU with an average loss margin of -4.9ppg. The Kings are playing with double revenge here after losing to the Blazers twice already this season. Lay the short number with Sacramento.

#792 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -2.5 over BYU, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas Tech is an extremely dangerous team, especially at home. They are 13-4 on the season with all 4 of their losses coming away from home (road or neutral) vs high level opponents. 3 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 11 (Purdue, Houston, and Illinois). They are 9-0 at home this season and 24-3 here since the start of last season. The Red Raiders already beat Duke on a neutral court in NYC (MSG) so they are good enough to beat anyone. The Cougars come in with a near perfect 16-1 record but this team is ready to get clipped in our opinion. They’ve been close to getting upset recently holding on to beat an OK at best Utah team (lowest rated team in the Big 12) by 5 and then coming from behind at home to beat TCU 76-70 on Wednesday night. In that win, BYU trailed at home for 53% of the game and held on for a tight win despite getting the friendly whistle at home making 11 more FT’s than the Horned Frogs. The Cougs 2 conference road games were vs KSU and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the Big 12, and those are their only 2 true road games of the entire season. They’ll be walking into a hornet’s nest here as the students are back for Tech and a huge crowd is expected. The Red Raiders offense is as good as any on the country (18th in efficiency) and they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (24th). Head coach McCasland has always been one of the best defensive coaches in the country and after a slow start on that end of the court, Tech has been really good on that end over their last 6 games. They’ve held each team during that stretch below their offensive efficiency averages and all 6 of their opponents rank in the top 90 on offensive efficiency. BYU has another match up with Utah, their arch rival, on deck and we like Tech to take them down on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -3 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - We like the situation here for the Celtics and will lay the short number with the road favorite. Both teams last played Thursday on the road as the Celtics were at Miami and the Hawks were in Portland. Boston beat the Heat 119-114, the Hawks lost to the Blazers 101-117. Atlanta is in a much tougher scheduling situation here though. Since Jan 2nd they have played 8 games, seven of which were on the road, the last 4 were on the West Coast. Boston is flying under the radar right now at 23-13 SU on the season with the 3rd best efficiency differential in the league at +7.3. The C’s are 13-8 ATS on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +6.8ppg. We like what the Hawks did in trading Trae Young for a proven scoring vet like McCollum and it will pay dividends down the road, just not in this situation. Atlanta is 17th in eDIFF at -0.9 and have a 7-11 ATS home record this season, minus -2.4ppg. These two teams have similar offensive numbers but the Celtics defense is significantly better than the Hawks. Lay the short number with Boston.

#759 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M +5.5 over Texas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Texas is off a huge upset home win over Vanderbilt on Wednesday in a game they shot 53% overall, 41% from deep, and 86% from the FT line, all well above their season averages. They possibly benefited from a Vandy peak ahead to their huge game today vs Florida. The Horns haven’t been all that impressive this year. They already have 2 home losses, including vs Mississippi State who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the SEC, along with a 19 point loss vs Virginia. The Aggies are coming off an OT loss @ Tennessee (on Tuesday so an extra day) in a game they led 75% of the time. It was an impressive performance vs a Vol team that has smoked everyone at home, including this Texas team, prior to A&M taking them to the wire despite making 10 fewer FT’s. In their other SEC road game the Aggies beat a very good Auburn team so they’ve proven they can get it done vs high level teams on the road. A&M is a very good shooting team (24th in eFG%) and they make almost 37% of their 3’s. They should make hay from deep in this game vs a Longhorn D that allows opponents to make 35% of the triples (235th nationally). Defensively the pesky Aggies create turnovers at the highest rate in the SEC and 17th most in the country. Texas struggles to protect the ball ranking 11th in offensive turnover rate in SEC play and that should lead to extra possessions for Texas A&M. Since starting the season 2-2, TAMU has won 11 of their last 13 games with their only 2 losses during that run coming in OT vs SMU and Tennessee, 2 teams both rated higher than this Texas team per KenPom. The Horns are just 3-6 this year vs top 100 teams and we like A&M to cover and have a great chance to win this game outright.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -4 over UCLA, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We have a huge situational edge for OSU in this one. They are coming off a loss @ Washington last Sunday (we were on Washington) and now they’ve had the entire week off to rest up and get ready for this game. They lost starting center Tilly (12 PPG) in the first half of that game to a head injury. He’s had a week to rest and head coach Jake Diebler is confident he’ll be OK on Saturday. On the other side, UCLA is in a really rough spot here. Their last 5 games they played @ Iowa (loss), @ Wisconsin (loss), came home for 1 game vs Maryland and won, then had to travel to the east coast to face Penn State on Wednesday and now Ohio State today. That’s 5 games in 15 days with 4 coming on the road all with long travel. They are coming off a win on Wednesday @ PSU but caught a break when the Nittany Lions leading scorer Dillone injured his ankle 8 minutes into the game and did not return. On top of that, Penn State made only 4 of 22 from 3 (18%) and the Bruins were 21 of 21 from the FT line. UCLA played that game without leading scorer Skyy Clark (3rd game in a row he missed) and he is highly doubtful in this one. They’ve also had the flu running through their team this week with a few players bed ridden which could definitely be an issue here. In their 2 recent road games @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin, 2 very similarly rated teams to OSU, they lost by 13 (trailed by 24) and by 8 (trailed by 20) respectively. The Buckeyes are one of the top offensive teams in the country ranking 25th in FG% while averaging 83 PPG while making 79% of their FTs. Those numbers jump to 52% and 88 PPG on their home court. Since losing Clark, UCLA’s top 3 point shooter, they’ve hit just 19 of 74 from beyond the arc (25%), spanning their last 4 games. Today they face an OSU defense that allows only 29% from deep which is 24th in the country so we expect very little from 3 for the Bruins in this game. They’ve also averaged only 67 PPG over their last 4. We’re not sure they can keep up offensively in this game and with the sickness, injuries, and terrible travel schedule, UCLA might not have much left in the tank. Take the Buckeyes.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 10pm ET - This is a steep price to lay with the Hawks so let’s grab the value tonight with the home team Blazers. Portland has quietly put together a 7-3 SU streak in their last 10 games but have now lost 2 in a row. They are working on some chemistry issues with Jrue Holiday and Robert Williams work their way back into the rotation. Also, Deni Avdija is out with an injury so picking up his points/assists must come from the rest of the starters. Atlanta made a big trade and sent Trae Young to the Wizards for CJ McCollum and Cory Kispert which is going to be a big upgrade for the Hawks moving forward. Atlanta is coming off a 116-141 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night as their defense allowed the Lakers to shoot 58% overall and 56% from the 3-point line. Back to the value in the number. Portland was recently +5.5 at home against the Knicks, +6.5 and +7 versus the Rockets. Atlanta grades out much lower than those two teams in our power ratings, especially considering the current play of each team right now. The Blazers have lost 2 straight games but prior had a 5 game winning streak with W’s over Houston (2x) and the Spurs. In the Hawks last 10 games they were plus +2.5 and +3.5 at Toronto which is a comparable team in this situation. The efficiency differential between these two teams is close. Portland has an eDIFF of +2.7, Atlanta is +3.6. Grab the points with the home dog in this one.

#849 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +5.5 over Long Beach State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - These 2 have the exact same 6-11 records on the season but UC Riverside has played the tougher schedule (83rd SOS). UCR is 1-4 in Big West play but they’ve faced the toughest slate in conference play having already played the 3 highest rated teams in the conference, Hawaii, UC San Diego, and UC Santa Barbara. Half of the Highlanders wins this season have come on the road and their stats away from home are almost identical to their home stats. We’re getting some value here with this number because UCR has lost 5 in a row, while Long Beach has won 3 of their last 4. Riverside’s last 2 losses have gone to the wire losing by 1 and 3 points vs Cal St Bakersfield and UC San Diego. Meanwhile, LBSU hasn’t created margin in any of their wins this year vs D1 opponents. They have just 4 wins vs D1 teams and those have come by 3, 4, 6, and 8 points. They are a poor defensive team ranking 338th in opponent’s FG%, 349th defending the arc, and 308th in PPG allowed (77 PPG). The Beach also struggles to shoot the 3 ranking 309th barely making 30% of their triples. Tough to lay this number with a team that is bad on defense and can’t make 3’s. Riverside has been very competitive when traveling to Long Beach with a 2-3 SU record (3-2 ATS) with their 3 losses here coming by 1, 2, and 8 points. Too many points as we look for this one to go down to the wire.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Penn State +3.5 over UCLA, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Really rough scheduling spot for UCLA in this one. They were @ Iowa (loss), @ Wisconsin (loss), came home to beat Maryland (2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) and now back to the east coast to take on Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 in Big 10 play but they are better than their record. 4 of their 5 losses were by 8 points or less vs top tier Big 10 teams Purdue (lost by 8), Illinois (lost by 8), Michigan State (lost by 4), and Michigan (lost by 2). Their most recent home game was vs Michigan (#1 team per KenPom) in a game they lost by 2 but Shot Quality stats had the Nittany Lions winning that game. The Bruins are 1-2 this year in true road games with their only win coming by 2 points @ Washington. If you include their neutral site games UCLA is just 1-5 on the year losing by an average of 8 PPG. PSU is 7-2 at home this year with their only losses coming in tight games vs Michigan State and Michigan, both top 13 teams per KenPom. The Nittany Lions have played the toughest strength of schedule in conference play already facing the 4 highest teams in the conference. UCLA is just 3-2 despite facing the 12th rated SOS in league play. Their most recent win was at home vs Maryland and Shot Quality stats actually had them losing that game at home. The Bruins leading scorer and best 3 point shooter Skyy Clark has missed the last few games with a hamstring issue and he is questionable here. Even is he plays he won’t be 100%. UCLA simply isn’t playing well and this is a guge game for PSU with 3 of the next 4 on the road. We expect them to pick up their first conference win tonight.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - KSU is in desperation mode at home after starting Big 12 play with an 0-3 record. Not a huge surprise as they were an underdog in all 3 games and have faced the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play and have already faced Arizona & BYU rated 2nd and 11th nationally per KenPom. UCF is 2-1 in league play with their 2 wins coming at home while losing their lone road game at Oklahoma State by double digits. Their most recent game on Sunday was at home vs Cincinnati in a game they won by 1 points but Shot Quality stats had them losing by 12! The Knights have played only 2 true road games this season and have left the state of Florida just 1 time since mid November (a loss at Okla St). They also have a HUGE game on deck this weekend hosting #1 Arizona on Saturday. Since UCF joined the Big 12 a few years ago, these teams have met twice with KSU rolling to an easy win at home 2 years ago and UCF squeaking out a 4 point win at home last year. The Wildcats have also had an extra day to prepare after losing last Saturday @ ASU (by 3 points) while the Knights played on Sunday. UCF has won only 7 of their last 22 road games since the start of the 2023 season and this is a huge home game for the Wildcats where they are shooting over 50% on the year and averaging 89 PPG. We like KSU to cover this short number at home.

English EFL Cup #234006 ASA PLAY ON Chelsea +0.5 (-148) over Arsenal, Wednesday at 3 ET - We expect Chelsea to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for the hosts in this one. We do expect the outright win as Chelsea rides the momentum of the recent managerial change but we're glad to have a draw result also being able to produce a winner here! Arsenal would certainly be willing to settle for a draw here as the 2nd leg of this battle will be on their home pitch. Getting a draw on the road then would be just fine for the Gunners. The Blues have only 2 losses in their last 8 games. Arsenal has been hot so they are in strong current form but they have had to settle for a draw in each of their last 3 visits to Stamford Bridge! Chelsea is revitalized by the managerial change and the odds favor the hosts earning at least a draw again in this home battle versus Arsenal! We will take Chelsea on the goal line (+0.5) Wednesday.

#602 ASA PLAY ON Providence +2.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a gigantic home game for Providence who sits with a 1-4 record in the Big East. They are “this close” to having a much better record in league play as 2 of their 4 losses have come in OT vs UConn (blew a 13 point 2nd half lead) and Butler and another loss came by 5 points vs Seton Hall. Their lone win was @ St Johns (77-70 final) who ranks as the 2nd best team in the Big East behind UConn. They’ve shown they are much better than their Big East record beating one of the top 2 teams in the league and losing to the other in OT. Villanova is in the 2nd of back to back road game after squeaking by Marquette 76-73 on Saturday. The Golden Eagles rank as the worst team in the Big East per KenPom and the Shot Quality score had Marquette actually winning that game vs Villanova. The line value is very solid here. We have Providence as a slight favorite and when comparing the line to Villanova’s most recent game, we see the Wildcats were -3.5 @ Marquette and now nearly the same -2.5 @ Providence who ranks almost 50 spots higher than the Golden Eagles. The Friars are one of the best offensive teams in the Big East ranking in the top 80 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% while averaging 89 PPG. At home all of those numbers improve and they are averaging 91 PPG. The also make 78% of their FT’s while Vilanova makes only 69% which could be key in what is expected to be a close game. Nova averages just 71 PPG in their road games this year and they are in a possible letdown spot here in their 2nd straight road game with a huge match up on deck vs St Johns. They are 4-1 in the league with 3 wins coming by 8 points or less including vs 2 of the 3 worst teams in the conference (DePaul & Marquette). We like Providence at home in this spot.

#383 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Chargers defense has been lights out this season and we expect them to keep this game close throughout. LA has allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 10 games. They finished the season top 10 in opponents TD’s per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive. Almost 40% of their opponents drives failed to gain a first down which was tops in the NFL. New England had a stellar season but let’s not forget they faced the easiest schedule in the NFL by far. In fact, per the DVOA metric, the Patriot’s schedule this season was the 3rd easiest in NFL history. They faced THREE teams that ended the year with a winning record and lost 2 of those games splitting with Buffalo and losing vs Pittsburgh. If you look at the top 20 DVOA NFL teams this season (advanced metric) the Patriots played only 6 of those teams (least in the NFL) and their largest margin of victory in any of those games was 5 points. It’s been a great season but this is a fairly inexperienced team that isn’t used to being in the playoffs vs a team that has been in the playoffs and has extra motivation after losing in the Wild Card round last year @ Houston. In fact, Wild Card teams that were in the playoffs last season (LA Chargers) and are underdogs vs teams that were not in the playoffs last year (New England) are 21-2 ATS since 2013 covering by an average of more than 7 PPG. Another strong trend we have going for us here is the QB situation. The Pats Drake Maye has had a great season but he’s never played in a playoff game and Justin Herbert has. Those first time playoff QB’s facing a QB that has been in the playoffs are 20-40 both SU & ATS since 2002. Experience at that position matters this time of year. On top of that, the Patriots have to face a legit high level QB which didn’t happen much this season. In fact, they faced a team’s back up QB on a whopping 61% of their defensive snaps this season which was by far the most in the NFL. The Chargers weakness on offense this year was protecting Herbert. They were solid in run blocking (12th in rushing) but not great in pass blocking. That may cost them down the line but shouldn’t be an big issue here vs a New England defense that finished 24th in pressure rate despite playing the lightest schedule in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, New England thrived on big plays and the Chargers defense was one of the best in the NFL at limiting explosive plays this season. If LA can run the ball and not be one dimensional on offense, they have a great shot to win this game outright. We’re getting more than a FG here and we’ll take the points.

#862 ASA PLAY ON Washington -1.5 over Ohio State, Sunday at 6 PM ET - Nice situational set up for the home team here. The Huskies are off back to back road losses @ Indiana and @ Purdue dropping to 1-3 in the Big 10 making this a very important game. They lost both of those games by 10 points but Shot Quality scores had Washington losing by 6 vs Purdue and actually winning the game @ Indiana. UW had won 4 of their previous 5 games prior to their 2 game losing streak. They catch OSU in the 2nd of back to back West Coast games after they topped Oregon on Thursday night. In that win the Buckeyes shot 12% better overall, 10% better from 3, and made 3 more FT’s than the Ducks. OU attempted 8 more shots compared to Ohio State but shot just 33% in the game and were without their 2nd leading scorer Shelstad who averages 16 PPG. The 2nd leg of a long road trip is always tough especially if a team wins the first game, there is a chance they letdown a bit in the 2nd game. We’re getting some line value due to recent results as well. The Buckeyes were just 1.5 point dogs @ Oregon, who was without a key player, and ranked 35 spots below Washington and we’re getting the same number (at the open) here. OSU is 3-1 on the road but their wins have come vs Northwestern (by 4), Rutgers (lowest rated team in the Big 10) and Oregon, all rated lower than this Washington team. Their one road loss was @ Pitt who is rated as the 4th worst team in the ACC currently. The Huskies are 6-1 at home (2 point loss vs UCLA) and shoot 49% and have a +20 PPG margin. They don’t turn the ball over (56th in offensive turnover %) and they should control the boards in this game. Must win for the home team with a small number and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10pm ET - The health of both teams plays an important role in this handicap as the Bulls have a key component back in the lineup with Coby White, while the Mavs will be without Anthony Davis. Davis, the often injured star, could miss the remainder of the season with a hand injury. Chicago also has the benefit of extra rest coming into this game as their last game was cancelled due to moisture on the floor so the Bulls have been off since the 7th. Dallas on the other hand will be playing their 3rd straight road game with the most recent game coming in Utah on Thursday night. The Mavs have struggled on the road this season with a 4-13 SU record and an average loss margin in those games of minus -5.9ppg. The Bulls have been a much better team at home than on the road with an above .500 record on their home court of 10-9. The Bulls will enjoy a defensive rebound advantage as they rank 4th best in the league in that stat category plus they don’t turn the ball over like the Mavs do. Dallas is 24th in turnover percentage, the Bulls are 9th. Dallas is 1-6 SU this season when playing with a rest disadvantage and they’ve lost those games by an average of -10.3ppg. We like the health and scheduling advantages in this one and will back the home team to win by 6+ points.

#794 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -11.5 over Maryland, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Bruins are back from a road trip that saw them lose back to back games @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin. They lost by 13 vs the Hawkeyes and 8 vs the Badgers but their Shot Quality scores had them losing by 1 @ Iowa and winning @ Wisconsin. They combined to shoot 4 of 31 from beyond the arc in those 2 games (13%) which was an outlier for a team that makes 37% of their triples (40th in the country). We expect them to get back on track here when they shoot over 38% from 3 @ Pauley Pavilion and they are facing a Maryland defense that ranks outside the top 300 defending the arc. The Terps have fallen off a cliff after starting 5-1 they have lost 7 of their last 9 with their only wins during that stretch coming at home vs Wagner (ranked 317th) and Old Dominion (ranked 245th). They only have 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 240 and those were vs Marquette, who has a record of 6-10, and UNLV, who has a record of 7-7. The Terps are 0-4 in the Big 10 and vs they’ve played 3 games vs the top half of the conference teams and lost those games by 18 @ home vs Indiana, @ Iowa by 19, and at home vs Michigan by 18. UCLA head coach Mick Cronin has been very disappointed with his team’s defensive effort as of late and he let them know it after their road trip. Even with that they are still in the top 60 nationally in defensive efficiency and they allow opponents to shoot just 39% at home. The Bruins will play extra hard on that end of the court and that will be a problem for Maryland who isn’t a great shooting team (299th in eFG%). The Terps allow over 80 PPG on the road this season and UCLA averages 86 PPG at home. The Bruins are 9-0 at home this year with 8 of those wins coming by double digits. We’ll lay it.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -1 over Arkansas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We were on Auburn earlier this week at home vs Texas A&M and they blew a 16 point 2nd half lead (with under 14:00 remaining) and lost 90-88. The Aggies shot over 50% in that game and hit 43% of their triples (Auburn hit only 27% from deep) and it still came down to the wire. Their previous game they lost in OT @ UGA and now sit at 0-2 in SEC play and are in must win mode. They’ve actually been quite unlucky as Shot Quality stats had the Tigers winning @ UGA by 9 and then beating A&M by 17! That basically tells us Auburn was getting better shots than their opponents but shot a poor percentage which they did making only 27% from 3 point land in each game. This team could easily be 2-0 right now and we wouldn’t be seeing them as a home dog (we were anticipating this line to flip to Auburn as a small favorite). These teams have obviously changed from last season, but Auburn was a 16 point favorite at home vs the Razorbacks last year and now they started out here as a dog (line opened +1.5). That’s too big of a swing in our opinion. Arkansas is 2-0 in league play and coming off a road win @ Mississippi (lowest rated team in the SEC) on Wednesday so this will be their 2nd of back to back away from home and they have 1 less day to prepare as Auburn lost at home on Tuesday night. This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season and they are 1-1 thus far. Since John Calipari took over the Arkansas program as the start of last season, they are just 5-7 in true road games and they are facing an Auburn team that is 19-3 at home during that same time frame. The Tigers have played one of the toughest schedules in the country (4th SOS) and 4 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 11 (Michigan, Arizona, Houston, and Purdue) all away from home or neutral sites. Auburn is a very good offensive team (13th in offensive efficiency) that we expect to bounce back and shoot much better at home tonight. They are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country (7th) which should lead to extra opportunities. The Tigers have won 4 of the last 5 at home vs Arkansas and we like them in this one.

#375 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -10.5 over Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two met on November 30th in Charlotte and the Panthers pulled the 31-28 win as a 10 point dog. Despite the loss, the Rams dominated the stat sheet averaging 7.4 YPP (their 4th highest mark of the season) to just 5.8 YPP for the Panthers. LA controlled the trenches as well averaging over 7.0 YPC on the ground to just 4.1 for Carolina. Turnovers were the problem for the Rams as they had 3 giveaways to 0 for the Panthers including a 48 yard pick 6. The Panthers offense, which ranks 25th in the NFL in explosive play rate, had TD’s from 35, 33, and 43 yards out which is unlike them. They also converted 10 of their 18 third and fourth down plays which was also out of the norm for an offense that ranks 25th in third down conversion rate. Even with all of that going right for Carolina, they still only won by 3 points. The Rams were uber efficient on offense. They had 8 possessions for the game and if we take away the possessions where they turned the ball over, LA scored TD’s on 4 of their 5 drives. They lead the NFL in scoring, YPP, and EPA per play so we expect a big day from this offense. Carolina ranks 27th, 28th, and 25th in those key offensive metrics. LA had the 2nd best point differential in the NFL at +172 (behind only Seattle) and Carolina actually has a negative point differential at -69 (23rd in the NFL) making them the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential. They also have negative YPG and YPP margins on the season. Lastly, we’re getting grizzled veteran Rams QB Stafford who has started in 10 playoff games in his career vs Carolina QB Young who has never been in a playoff game. QB’s that have never started in the playoff game vs QB’s that have playoff experience are just 20-40 ATS since 2002. On top of that, teams that win the game outright are 69-11 ATS the last 80 Wildcard games. We don’t see the Panthers winning this game or even keeping it close. This is a high number but warranted and we like the Rams by at least 2 TD’s here.

#607 ASA PLAY ON VCU -1.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line speaks volumes. VCU with an 11-5 record is a road favorite vs a George Masion team that is 15-1 on the season. Hmm? That line is telling you who to take in this game and that is VCU. We agree. The Rams are coming off a home loss on Wednesday (we were on VCU) vs a very good St Louis team (ranked 32nd per KenPom). They shot terribly in that game making only 29% of their shots overall and just 25% from deep and despite that the Rams led by 1 point with just over 2:00 minutes remaining vs one of the better mid major teams in the country. That was an outlier for this VCU offense as they are a very good offensive team ranking 54th in offensive efficiency, 62nd in eFG%, 46th in 3 point FG%, while averaging 86 PPG. We look for them to play much better in this game. All 5 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in the top 55 with 4 of those coming vs teams in the top 35. By comparison, George Mason who has a strength of schedule of 346th, has played ONE top 100 team all season and lost that game by double digits vs Va Tech. VCU will be the highest rated team they’ve faced all season. Their 15-1 record is a bit of a mirage at this point which is why they are a home dog in this game. While this game is @ George Mason, they’ve had some close calls vs poor teams this year beating Penn (ranked 217th) by 4, Loyola Maryland (ranked 341st) by 7, and Winthrop (ranked 151st) by 6. Now they take a huge step up in competition vs a VCU team that has beaten them 6 straight times and 14 of the last 17. The Rams have better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively and they are the better rebounding team. We’re getting VCU off a loss as well which sets this one up very nicely.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -3.5 over Oregon, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Indiana over Bama and the Hoosiers dominated 38-3 holding the Crimson Tide outgaining them 407 to 193. IU had twice as many first downs and held the Tide to 1.4 YPC on the ground. Oregon beat Texas Tech 23-0 but the stats in that game were much closer with the Ducks putting up 309 total yards to 215 for Tech. The Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in the game leading to over half of Oregon’s points (13), they missed a FG, and were shutout on downs 3 times. The Ducks defense was very good in that win, however we still are a bit concerned about them on that side of the ball as they gave up 31 points and over 500 yards in their opening round win at home vs James Madison. IU has the better wins this season beating Oregon on the road, topping Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game and then destroying Bama last week. Oregon’s best win of the season was last week vs Texas Tech and prior to that maybe @ Iowa (IU won at Iowa as well). The Hoosiers already beat Oregon on the road by 10 points (30-20 final) and the Ducks had a pick 6 in that game and still lost at home by double digits. Indiana won the stats by +60 yards and held Oregon to just 81 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC (Hoosiers had 111 yards rushing). Last week the Ducks struggled to run the ball averaging only 1.4 YPC vs Tech (47 rush attempts for just 64 yards) and we think the ground game will be key here which favors Indiana. They are the better running team and defensively they allow just 73 YPG on the ground on 2.8 YPC while Oregon allows 111 on 3.3 YPC. While that’s not a huge difference we like the better team in the trenches in this one. Despite taking care of Oregon handily on the road this year, the Hoosiers still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. IU is and has been the better team all season and we’ll take them here to win, cover, and move onto the National Championship game.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Oakland -14.5 over Cleveland State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Oakland is 8-8 on the year despite playing one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country. Their SOS is rated 12th in the country and they’ve already faced the likes of Michigan State, Houston, Purdue, and Michigan all rated in the top 12 per KenPom. The Grizzlies are on a roll right now winning 7 of their last 10 after losing 5 of their first 6 to start the season. They are ranked as the #1 team in the Horizon League and tonight they are facing a Cleveland State team that ranks as the 2nd worst team in the league and 322nd in the country. The Vikings have faced 7 teams ranked in the top 200 this year (Oakland is 130) and they are 0-7 in those games losing all by at least 15 points including 3 of those games vs teams rated below Oakland. The CSU defense has been abysmal allowing 84 PPG (347th) and ranking 353rd in defensive efficiency. That’s going to be a huge problem vs an Oakland offense that ranks 56th nationally in offensive efficiency which is more than 100 spots higher than any other team in the conference. The Griz are also averaging 84 PPG and that’s all despite playing the 5th best set of defensive efficiency teams in the country. They have only played 4 games at home this year (12 on the road or neutral) and they are 4-0 in those games scoring at least 96 points in all 4. This will be the first opponent Oakland has faced this season that ranks below 300 in defensive efficiency and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they hit triple digits in this game. They like to play fast (41st in tempo) and Cleveland State does as well (135th in tempo) so simply more chances for this Oakland offense to pull away. A blowout is highly possible here.

#816 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State NM State -3 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 9 PM ET - New Mexico State is a perfect 6-0 at home this year including an 8 point win over a very good New Mexico team who is 12-3 and ranked 54th per KenPom. The Aggies are also coming off back to back road losses @ FIU and @ Missouri State and they are happy to be at home after playing 7 of their last 7 on the road or at neutral sites. While NMSU has been on the road for the most part as of late, Western Kentucky has been at home for 5 of their last 7 games and off back to back home wins vs Sam Houston St and La Tech. The Hilltoppers have played only 3 true road games this year losing 2 of those by double digits vs 2 teams both ranked lower than New Mexico State (Marshall and Jacksonville St). WKU did win their first road game of the year way back on November 10th @ Eastern Kentucky who is currently 2-11 vs D1 teams this season. The Hilltoppers are bad shooting team and that usually doesn’t bode well on the road. They rank 306th making only 41.8% of their shots and on the road that drops to 35%. They are facing a lock down New Mexico St defense who allows opponents to shoot only 39% this year (18th) while making only 21 FG’s per game (7th). The Aggies have played the stronger schedule and still have better offensive and defensive shooting numbers. These 2 have met 5 times since NMSU joined Conference USA in 2024 and the home team has won all 5 times. Last season the Aggies dominated the Hilltoppers here at home 65-47 as a 4 point favorite and we look for them to win and cover tonight.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - The Phoenix Suns (21-15) head to FedExForum as 3.5-point favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies (15-20) in a matchup that favors the visitors due to Memphis' fatigue and injury issues. The Grizzlies are coming off a big upset win over the Spurs last night and we predict a letdown. This will also be their second game in as many nights and third in four days. Memphis has also struggled as a home underdog, posting a 7-12 ATS record since the start of last season. On the flip side, we like the Suns to bounce back from a narrow 97-100 loss in Houston a few nights ago, and they've been excellent in this spot with a 10-4 ATS mark this season when coming off a defeat. In those games, Phoenix has won by an average margin of +6.4 points per game. The Suns will also be motivated for payback after dropping a tight 113-114 decision at home to the Grizzlies on October 29th. Adding to the case for Phoenix: Memphis is dealing with a lengthy injury list that could carry over from their January 6th game, including key absences like Ja Morant (calf contusion, out vs. Spurs), Zach Edey (ankle), Brandon Clarke (calf), and others, severely depleting their backcourt and frontcourt depth. The Suns, meanwhile, boast a balanced attack led by Devin Booker (25.7 PPG) and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

#690 ASA PLAY ON VCU -2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an impressive 13-1 on the season but they’ve faced a very easy schedule to date. The Billikens SOS is 343rd out of 365 teams and they’ve played only 1 true road game this season. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams this year beating Santa Clara by 1 and losing vs Stanford by 1 (both on neutral courts). VCU will actually be the highest rated team St Louis has faced this season. Last year VCU was favored by 10.5 at home vs the Billikens and won by 9 and now we’re getting them right around a pick-em at home. The Rams have already played 4 games vs teams inside the top 60 and while those are their 4 losses (11-4 record), 3 of those games went to the wire vs Utah St, NC State and New Mexico (also lost to Vandy). The teams that have beaten VCU this year have a combined record of 47-9 and all have strength of schedules in the top 120 unlike St Louis. If you look at straight stats, STL has some very impressive overall numbers. However, keep in mind they’ve faced a set off offenses that combines to rank 353rd in efficiency and they’ve played only 1 top 100 offense the entire season. The defenses they’ve faced combine to rank 302nd. Now they face a VCU offense thar ranks 30th in efficiency (the best offense STL has faced this year) and a defense that ranks 76th in efficiency. This is a big home game for the Rams who are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games and they are 23-2 at home since the start of last season. VCU joined the Atlantic 10 conference in 2012 and they are a perfect 9-0 SU at home vs St Louis since then. Let’s lay the small number.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings +5.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 11pm ET - This is as much a bet against Dallas as it is on Sacramento. The Kings have lost 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In fact, their last win was at Dallas on December 27th 113-107. They were a +3-point home dog in that game and are now catching a premium number with one of their best players returning from injury. Zach LaVine missed the last go around with Dallas but he’s back for the Kings now who desperately need his scoring. The Mavericks have lost 7 straight road games and have a 3-12 SU road record this season yet are laying points here? The Kings trailed the Bucks in their most recent game by as many as 26-points but battled back to make it respectable in the 4th Q. Dallas is the much better defensive team but offensively they are just average which makes it tough for them to win by margin. The Kings have the worst average margin of victory in the NBA at -12ppg, but the Mavs aren’t much better at -4.0ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Kings have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings with Dallas. We expect another tight game in this series tonight.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming -4.5 over UNLV, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - UNLV has a 7-6 record yet they’ve only left the state of Nevada twice this year with the last time coming back on December 7th. They already have 5 losses vs teams ranked outside the top 100 and if you throw out their loss vs Alabama (lost by 37) the average ranking of the opponents they’ve lost to is 182nd (Wyoming is ranked 103rd per KenPom). The Cowboys will actually be the 4th best team UNLV has faced this season and Wyoming will come into this one with a chip on their shoulder after getting smoked @ New Mexico over the weekend (we were on NM). The Rebels are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country hitting just 28% (336th) and Wyoming defends the are very well allowing just 29% (33rd) so we can expect very little from beyond the arc for UNLV. The Cowboys (10-4 record) are the better shooting team overall and from deep and their PPG margin on the year is +12 (UNLV is +5). At home they are winning by an average of +17 PPG and they are the better FT shooting team (73% to 67%). Wyoming should control the glass here (33rd in rebound rated vs UNLV who is 170th) and their offensive rebounding (49th nationally) should lead to a number of second chances (UNLV 244th in defensive rebounding). The Cowboys have bounced back with wins after their first 3 losses this year, 2 coming by double digits, and we expect them to pick up a home win and cover tonight.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -6.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - A&M is 11-3 on the season and Auburn is 9-5 but this is one of the more drastic strength of schedule disparities you’ll see. The Tigers have played the 7th most difficult schedule thus far already facing 8 top 100 teams including 3 ranked in the top 4 nationally per KenPom (Michigan, Arizona, and Purdue). You can also throw in Houston who is ranked 11th. A&M’s strength of schedule ranks 320th and they’ve played half their games (7) vs teams currently ranked 295th or lower. The Aggies haven’t left the state of Texas in over a month and they’ve only played 2 true road games this year @ Pitt (8 point win) and @ Oklahoma State (24 point loss). The Aggies are 1-3 vs top 75 teams with their only win coming at home over the weekend 75-72 vs LSU in a game the Tigers played without guard Dedan Thomas (16 PPG & 7 APG). Auburn is coming off a 4 point OT loss at a very good Georgia team (26th per KenPom) in a game that Shot Quality stats had the Tigers actually winning by 9 points. Auburn has quality wins over St Johns, Oregon, and NC State, all by double digits with 2 of those wins coming away from home. They are also undefeated at home this year and their only 3 losses at home since the start of the 2023 season were vs Kentucky (in 2023), Bama (in OT), and Florida (last year’s National Champion) last year. In their home games this year the Tigers are shooting 54% overall and nearly 40% from deep while averaging 97 PPG. The Aggies have fallen off drastically in their few road games hitting 38% of their shots and scoring 72 PPG (they average 100 PPG at home mainly vs terrible competition). To put the disparity of opponents into perspective, Auburn has faced the 4th most difficult set of offenses this year and the 17th most difficult set of defenses. The Aggies have faced the 260th most difficult set of offenses and the 350th most difficult set of defenses. Auburn won by double digits last year here vs A&M and they are in “need to win” mode coming off a loss. Let’s lay it.

#831 ASA PLAY ON Bradley +5 over Murray State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value here on Bradley facing a Murray State team that is on an 8 game winning streak. 5 of those 8 wins came by single digits and they only double digit wins during that stretch came vs teams ranked 310th and 249th. Bradley was just a 4.5 point dog @ Belmont on Thursday, a team that ranks 30 spots higher than Murray State per KenPom. The Braves lost that game by 10 points with Belmont shooting 55% and making 11 more FT’s. Belmont never led in the 2nd have by double digits until 20 seconds left in the game. We expect the Bradley defense (ranked 103rd in efficiency) to bounce back strong in this game. They create turnovers at a 22% rate (12th in the country) which should lead to extra possessions. Murray State’s offense has very good numbers but they’ve faced a group of defensive teams whose average rank is outside the top 300 in efficiency. The Braves should excel offensively in this game as well. The Racers defense isn’t great allowing 78 PPG and they rank 264th in opponent’s FG%. They’ve been winning tight games all season and each of their last 3 was decided by 6 points or less. Bradley should keep this close throughout and we’ll take the points.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers 3pm ET - The Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and have currently lost 11 straight games. On the year, Indiana has a 1-15 SU road record with an average loss margin of -13.8ppg. Orlando on the other hand has been solid overall and very good at home with an 11-5 record on their home court. Orlando is coming off a loss to the Bulls in their last game and will look to rebound here with a much better effort against a Pacers team they barely beat last week. The Magic were just favored by -4.5 points at Indiana so the number on Sunday’s game is a bargain. In the Pacers 11-game losing streak only 4 of the eleven losses have come by single digits. Easy call with the home team Magic in this one.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at NY Giants, Sunday 1pm ET - The Giants have everything to play for here…essentially the 2nd pick in the draft next year so losing is a priority. New York is 3-13 on the year and owns the tiebreaker among the 3-13 teams. A win here could potentially drop them all the way down to the 8th spot. Dallas on the other hand is middle of the pack this season at 7-8-1 and are mainly playing for incentive bonuses or player statistics. QB Dak Prescott currently leads the NFL in total passing yards with WR Pickens and Lamb both top 10 receiving yards, so they’ll likely look to pad stats against a bad Giants defense. The Cowboys put up more yards offensively than any other team in the NFL at 399ypg while averaging 6.2YPP (4th). The Boys will have success moving the football against a Giants D that is 29th in total yards per game allowed at 364ypg and 27th in YPP defense giving up 6.1YPP. The Giants won last week in Las Vegas against a team that has quit on the season and was playing for the #1 pick in next year's draft. The Giants have average offensive statistics on the season ranking 16th in total yards per game and 19th in YPP at 5.4 so they can’t exploit a horrible Cowboys defense which is just as bad as their own. Dallas had a few extra days to prepare for this game and should get a win by a TD or more.

#770 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -2.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We’re getting a really good team, off a loss, at home with a low number in this one. UCSD is 11-3 on the season and 8-3-1 ATS. They should be extra motivated in this game coming off a rough road loss @ Cal Poly as a 9 point favorite. The Tritons led nearly the entire game and actually never trailed in the 2nd half until Cal Poly took a 66-65 lead with 18 seconds left in the game and won 67-65. UCSD didn’t score a single point over the last 3:49 in that loss. We expect a big bounce back at home where they have won 32 of their last 37 games. Hawaii is 11-2 on the year but they’ve played the 2nd easiest schedule in college hoops thus far. They have 1 win vs a top 200 team and the 2 top 100 teams they played they lost to both. Compare that to San Diego who has 6 wins vs top 200 teams this season. On top of that, Hawaii has played 11 home games, where they obviously have a huge advantage over opponents who have to make the long travel, and only 2 road games. Their most recent game was an easy win @ a bad UC Riverside team and now the Rainbows had to stay stateside to face UCSD 48 hours later. To give you an idea of how easy Hawaii’s schedule has been, thus far they’ve faced the 353rd most difficult schedule of offensive teams and the 362nd most difficult schedule of defensive teams. Even with that, the Tritons have been the better shooting team overall and from beyond the arc this season despite playing the much more difficult slate. The Rainbows have beaten 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record (Utah Tech is 9-7 & UC Davis is 8-5) and the combined record of the teams they’ve beaten is 54-78. UCSD was favored by 15.5 vs Hawaii here at home last year and won by 39 points. Now we’re getting them near a pick-em. We’ll gladly take UC San Diego in this game.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers, Saturday 8:00pm ET - The line on this game is telling us who to bet on and it’s the Seahawks. This number opened with the Niners the favorite, yet with more money and tickets on San Francisco it steamed to the Seahawks as the road favorite. The 49ers offense has played light’s out in recent weeks with 37, 48 and 42 points in their previous three games. The problem is the defense for San Francisco has hemorrhaged yards and points in that same 3-game stretch. Seattle rolls into this game on a 6 game winning streak and has been outstanding on the road this season with a 7-1 SU record. The big difference between these two teams is their defenses. San Francisco has been below average in most key metrics for most of the season. They allow the 19th most total yards per game at 339ypg, rate 24th in yards per play allowed at 5.8YPP and get exploited through the air allowing 235 passing yards per game (25th). In their last 3 games the Niners numbers are worse, allowing 353ypg and 6.3YPP. Seattle on the other hand is the #2 overall rated defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allow just 293ypg (6th) at 4.8YPP (1st) while giving up just 18.1ppg on the season. The offenses for both teams have near identical numbers with both top 10 in total yards per game and yards per play with each scoring more than 27ppg. Seattle QB Darnold can struggle when pressured which won’t be the case Saturday. The 49ers are 32nd or last in the league in sack percentage and sacks per game. The edge for Seattle’s defense is the difference here.

#756 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 8 PM ET - These 2 MWC teams have the same record at 10-3 yet New Mexico has played a strength of schedule nearly 200 spots higher than Wyoming (319th SOS for Wyoming & 126th for the Lobos). We’re also getting a very good New Mexico team coming off a loss @ Boise State in a game Shot Quality metrics had the Lobos winning the game. Now we get them back at home where they are 8-0 this season and 24-1 since the start of last year. The Lobos already have 3 top 100 wins crushing a very good Santa Clara team here at home (98-71), beating Mississippi State on a neutral court, and topping a very good VCU team on the road. Wyoming’s best win on the season was vs South Dakota State who ranks 177th per KenPom. They are 0-3 vs top 150 teams losing to Texas Tech, Sam Houston State, and Grand Canyon. It’s the Cowboys 2nd straight road game after beating a bad Air Force team (ranked 328th) on the road Tuesday night 68-56. Air Force was able to keep the game fairly close (trailed by 5 with 3:00 remaining in the game) despite getting outscored by 13 points from the FT line and by a whopping 27 points from beyond the arc. AF only made 1 of their 12 three point shots. Based on those 2 things alone that game should have been a blowout and Wyoming was unable to pull away. The Cowboys have decent, not great, numbers ranking 110th in offensive efficiency and 84th in defensive efficiency but they’ve faced a schedule where their offensive opponents have an average efficiency rating of 301st and an average defensive efficiency rating of 332nd. The Lobos have similar offensive numbers ranking 119th in offensive efficiency and much better defensive numbers ranking 46th in defensive efficiency. That’s vs a schedule with an average offensive efficiency rating of 110th and an average defensive efficiency ranting of 132nd. The Lobo defense is very good at creating turnovers (64th nationally) and they should have a big edge at the FT line where they make 77% and are facing a Wyoming D that allowed opponents to score almost 30% of their points from the charity stripe this season (2nd worst in the nation). We like the Lobos to bounce back for a double digit win tonight.

#884 ASA PLAY ON California -4 over Notre Dame, Friday at 11 PM ET - We like this spot for Cal coming off a 20 point home loss vs a very good Louisville team. This is also a fade spot for the Irish who won as a dog @ Stanford on Tuesday. Notre Dame was a 7 point dog in that game and now they are only +4.5 vs a Cal team that ranks nearly 20 spots higher than Stanford per KenPom. Stanford shot brutally bad in that game making only 13 of their 56 shots (23%) and just 4 of 30 from beyond the arc. While ND’s defense is solid (top 50 in efficiency), they aren’t that good. Just one of those poor shooting nights and even with those horrible shooting numbers from the Cardinal, the game was still tight with the Irish winning 47-40. Cal was roasted at home by Louisville (ranked 11th per KenPom) on Tuesday and their effort on the boards was poor (-19). Head coach Mark Madsen was disappointed with his team’s physicality in that game and mentioned, “the Notre Dame game is a huge game for us.” They don’t want to drop to 0-2 in the ACC with 2 road games on deck at UVA and Va Tech. Expect a much better effort tonight from the Bears. Prior to that setback, the Bears only loss on the year was @ Kansas State by 3 points. Cal has been at home since mid November while the Irish have been on the west coast since Monday and will be playing their 2nd of back to back roadies. Cal can score averaging 82 PPG and they make nearly 40% of their triples (17th nationally). ND only averages 65 PPG on the road this year and they are without their leading scorer Markus Burton (18 PPG) who was lost for the season a few weeks ago. They are 3-1 since Burton was injured but they did lose at home vs IPFW during that stretch and Cal will be the highest rated team they’ve faced since his injury. This one sets up nicely as a bounce back game for the Bears and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9 pm ET - The Kings are coming off a hard-fought game last night against the Celtics and now face a rested Suns team in their building. Sacramento is shorthanded right now with LaVine and Sabonis both out with injuries. LaVine leads the team in scoring, Sabonis leads them in rebounding. The Kings struggle to play without rest with a 5-16 ATS record dating back to the start of last season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 10+ points per game. Phoenix has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 19-14 Su record, 10-5 at home. Phoenix has solid numbers overall and rank top half of the league in efficiency differential at +1.4. In comparison, the Kings are 29th in eDIFF at -11.3. These two teams met in late November in Sacramento and the Suns won by 12-points. The Suns had won 4 straight games but are now coming off a loss to the Cavs and they’ve excelled in that situation this season with a 9-4 ATS mark. The Suns have beaten the Kings in 4 of the last five meetings in Phoenix and tonight we expect this game to get ugly late.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Navy -7 over Cincinnati, Friday at 4:30 PM ET @ Memphis, TN - One thing we know about service academies in bowl games and that is they are all in. They only have 1 opt out so they will basically be in tact for this game as they always are for bowls. Navy has won 8 of their last 10 bowl games and service academies are huge money makers this time of year going 19-3 ATS in bowls since 2003. Cincinnati is on the other end of the spectrum. They have a ton of opt outs including a huge number of key defensive players. The Bearcats will also be without their starting QB Sorsby who accounted for over 65% of Cincinnati’s total yardage this season. His back up Lichtenberg has 333 career passing yards and it looks like he will split time with freshman Jones who has taken only 2 snaps this season. That tells us that this Cincinnati staff is looking toward next year to see what they have and maybe not completely focused on winning this game. It’s really tough to defend the Navy offense if you’re not used to playing against it. They will have to play their most focused game of the season on that side of the ball and that might be tough with a bunch of back ups. Navy leads the country in rushing yards at 290 YPG on nearly 6.0 YPC. The Bearcat D allowed 174 YPG on the ground which ranked 97th. Not a great match up. On top of that, Navy actually threw the ball well this season with veteran QB Horvath averaging over 130 YPG through the air. Don’t be surprised if Navy hits some big plays through the air vs a Cincy team missing their entire starting secondary in this game. The Bearcats D was shredded down the stretch for 36.5 PPG over their last 4 and Navy will have big time success here. The Midshipmen are viewing this as their “second” Super Bowl only behind their game with Army. We already saw Army crush a disinterested UConn team 41-16 in their bowl game. Similar spot here and while we don’t expect the score to be that lopsided, we would be completely surprised if it was. Navy by 10+ in this one.

#266 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -16 over Rice, Friday at 1 PM ET @ Fort Worth, TX - We’re pretty sure Rice won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard here. They are facing a potent Texas State offense that averages 36 PPG on 476 YPG (8th in the country). The Bobcats have put up at least 40 points 5 times this season and they’ve been held under 30 just twice vs James Madison (top 10 defense) and Arizona State. They are very balanced averaging 220 YPG rushing and 256 YPG passing. They are facing a Rice defense that ranks 127th in total defense and allowed 50+ points in each of their last 2 regular season games. The Owls defense doesn’t have a strength as they rank 95th vs the run and 127th vs the pass. They are the only team in the country to allow points on EVERY redzone appearance by their opponents this year. That’s 37 redzone trips by their opponents and 37 scores (28 TD’s). On the other side, the Rice offense is far from explosive averaging just 19 PPG this season. They can’t pass at all (97 YPG passing) so if they get way behind, which we anticipate here, it’s tough for them to come back. They’ll also be down to their 3rd string QB here, who took a grand total of 37 snaps this season, as their starter and back up have both entered the transfer portal. If they only scored 19 PPG with their top QB and a full offense how are they going to keep up in this game? The Texas State defense should be able to focus almost solely on the run here which will make it tough for the Rice offense. The Owls finished 5-7 (11th place) in at average at best AAC conference. The only reason they got into this bowl is there weren’t enough willing teams to play so they were asked. Texas State should roll in this game.

ASAwins NBA play on Miami Heat +4.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - We mentioned this the other day, depending on the exact circumstances, but we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Detroit. The Pistons were on the road for 5 straight games on the West coast which ended with a win against the Lakers. The betting markets are also telling us to back the Heat here as the line on this game is trending down despite a high volume of tickets and money on the Pistons. Detroit is 14-20 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season with a plus/minus in those games of +5.6. Miami is .500 as a road dog in that same time frame but their +/- is -3.1ppg in that scenario. The Pistons are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.2% but the Heat allow opponents to make just 45.6% which is 4th best defensively. The Pistons rely on forcing turnovers with their defense (3rd) but the Heat take care of the basketball with the 4th best TOV% in the league. This has been a very tight series in the past with the last 4 meetings all decided by 3-points or less and two of the last four went to OT. We expect another tight game on Thursday.

#262 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7 over Alabama, Thursday at 4 PM ET @ Pasadena, CA - We have IU closer to a 10 point favorite in this game and at -7 we like the value with the Hoosiers. Alabama is living on their name right now. This team was a borderline CFP team at best and they have a number of flaws. First, they can’t run the ball at all. They rank 122nd in rushing YPG and 125 in YPC. That’s a huge problem vs an Indiana defense that is elite. The Hoosiers only allow 77 YPG rushing (2nd in the nation) so that makes the Bama offense very one dimensional in this game. In their playoff opener, we were on the Crimson Tide and got lucky. They were completely dominated by an OK, not great, Oklahoma team, who’s offense is shaky at best. OU outgained Alabama by over 100 yards and they were held to 28 yards rushing on 25 carries. The game prior to that they were dominated by UGA a team very similar to Indiana, 28-7 and held to negative 3 yards rushing. They’ll struggle to move the ball in Indiana. The Hoosiers are top 10 in both total offense and total defense and top 6 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Many still question this team’s schedule but in their 2 games vs playoff teams, they handled Oregon by 10 on the road, and then beat Ohio State, who had been #1 all season, on a neutral site. Since Cignetti took over as head coach they are 24-2 with their only losses coming last year @ OSU and @ Notre Dame, 2 teams that played for the National Championship. When comparing the key differentials of these 2 teams, it’s not close. Indiana’s PPG margin is +31 and they outgained their opponents by 215 YPG. Bama’s PPG margin is +13 and they outgained their opponents by 90 YPG. IU is simply better on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission after getting to the Playoffs last year and losing right out of the game to Notre Dame. They now know what this situation is like while the Tide did not make it to the Playoffs last year so this spot is new to many of them. We like Indiana by more than a TD in this one.

#734 ASA PLAY ON Wright State -5 over UW Milwaukee, Thursday at 2 PM ET - This spot heavily favors Wright State from a situational standpoint. They have been home since mid December and this will be their 4th consecutive home game. They have some momentum coming off back to back wins over Eastern Michigan and Oakland. They’ve been off since Monday so they should be set and ready for this one. UWM, on the other hand, played an important conference home game on Monday vs IPFW, then played @ Wisconsin the next night (Tuesday), and now they are in Dayton less than 40 hours after their game vs the Badgers came to an end. The Panthers bussed to Chicago after their game vs Wisconsin and flew into Dayton early on Wednesday. On top of that, their next game is @ rival UW Green Bay. Rough scheduling spot to say the least. Milwaukee is just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cleveland State who ranks 323rd per KenPom and has a 2-10 record vs D1 opponents this season. Besides Wisconsin on Tuesday (20 point loss), Wright State will be the highest rated opponent UWM has faced since November. The Panthers have played the slightly better strength of schedule and have better straight FG% numbers on offense and defense as well as better efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball. Milwaukee’s shooting numbers aren’t great (286th in FG% and 275th from 3) and on the road their shooting drops significantly. We don’t expect that to change with a high probability of tired legs for Milwaukee. Wright State is hitting 52% of their shots at home while averaging 82 PPG. We like the Raiders to cover this game at home.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET @ Miami, FL - Tech has been an under the radar team for most casual observers this season. Many don’t put them in the same category as the OSU’s, Oregon’s, Indiana’s, and Georgia’s of the world. They are every bit as good as those teams and better than some. Our power ratings have Tech as a slight favorite in this game and we’re grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were 12-1 SU and a CFB leading 11-2 ATS on the season. Their only loss was @ Arizona State in a game Tech played without their starting QB and still led with under 30 seconds left. Every other game this season they won by at least 24 points. Their strength of schedule wasn’t as good as Oregon, but it wasn’t like they had any close games. They destroyed everyone. The defense is as good as there is in the country ranking 3rd in total D, 3rd in YPP allowed, and 1st in rush defense. They allowed only 11 PPG this season and when stepping up in competition they held the 3 top 25 offenses they faced this season to an average of 8 PPG. The Raiders are also a top 10 offense that is very balanced (191 YPG rushing and 290 YPG passing) and they averaged 42 PPG. Not many, if any, weaknesses on this team. While Texas Tech was destroying their opponents, Oregon lost by 10 at home to Indiana and had a number of close calls beating PSU in OT, beating Iowa by 2, and holding on to beat Washington by 12 in a game that was a 5 point margin midway through the 4th quarter. Their offense clicks by being able to run the ball (217 YPG rushing) which then opens up their passing attack. They might be one dimensional here as Tech’s defense has completely shut down opposing rushing attacks with what many consider the best defensive line in the country. The Raiders are allowing just 68 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC, both tops in the nation. While Oregon’s defense has top 10 numbers, we see them as a bit more vulnerable. In their opening round game, James Madison hit them for over 500 yards. The Ducks have faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (same as Texas Tech) and allowed 30 PPG in those games. We’ve been on Texas Tech a number of times for big plays this year and won them all. Let’s do it again on Thursday.

ASA NBA play on Washington Wizards +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - The Bucks have Giannis back in the lineup, but the facts are they weren’t great with him early this season and we’re not sure they should be laying double-digits here. On the season the Bucks have the 20th rated Net rating at -2.8 and they currently sit 11th in the East. Washington has a season long Net rating of -11.9 but in their last 10 games they’ve played significantly better with a Net rating of -3.8. In fact, in comparing each teams last 10 games we see the Wiz have a better scoring differential of -3.4ppg versus the Bucks at -5.1ppg. Historically we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Milwaukee as they just played 5 straight away from home. The Wizards are 2-1 SU their last 3 games with solid wins against the Raptors and Grizzlies before a 14-point loss to the Suns. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two teams with the series tied 1-1 and we expect Washington to keep this game close.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +9.5 over Ohio St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - @ Arlington, TX - Too many points here in our opinion. Our power ratings have this line at a TD in favor of OSU so we have some value with the Canes. 2 high level defensive teams with a very low total (41 right now) makes the points even more valuable. Miami is off an impressive win as a dog @ Texas A&M. Both defenses dominated that game and the Canes rush D held the Aggies to 89 yards on 2.5 YPC. A&M entered that game averaging 188 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC so a very impressive performance by Miami who is allowing only 87 YPG rushing on the year. The Canes also beat Notre Dame this year and those 2 wins (A&M and ND) are the 2 most impressive wins for either of these teams this season. OSU was very good this year but their best win was maybe 14-7 at home vs Texas? A Longhorn team that turned out to be not as good as advertised. Maybe their win over Michigan to end the season? A Michigan program that was, and is, in disarray. In their one “step up” type game this year vs a very high level opponent, the Buckeyes lost in the Big 10 Championship game vs Indiana. OSU’s only TD in their game vs Indiana was a 25 yard drive after an interception. They did very little offensively especially on the ground where they had 58 yards rushing. Neither team will be able to run much in this game with 2 outstanding, top 10 rush defenses. Both QB’s are outstanding with Miami’s Beck throwing for 3200 yards and 26 TD’s and OSU’s Saying throwing for 3300 yards and 31 TD’s. Both complete over 70% of their passes. Miami had a few hiccups vs SMU in OT (outgained SMU by 50 yards) and vs Louisville (lost by 3 but had 5 turnovers). This team can lose focus at times during the year when favored but when dialed in, they are as talented as anyone. Canes are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year winning both outright. If both these teams are at their best, there is not a 10 point difference. We’ll take the points