03-09-16 |
Jazz v. Warriors OVER 207 |
Top |
94-115 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UTAH@GS to go OVER the total. The Warriors are by far the highest scoring team in the NBA, averaging over 115 points per game. They've scored significantly more points at home, while remaining undefeated at 27-0. They scored 119 points in a win over Orlando in their last game, and have averaged 117.6 points in their last five at Oracle Arena. They host the Jazz tonight, and Utah has lost six of it's last seven on the road. The Jazz will be playing a quick turnaround in a back to back after a home loss to the Hawks last night, a tough spot to face Steph Curry and The Warriors. Curry dropped 41 points (seven three-pointers) in the win over Orlando. These two teams have gone over in four of the last five meetings, and the Jazz have gone over in nine of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. The Warriors have gone over in six of their last eight when playing on one day's rest. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-09-16 |
Stanford v. Washington -130 |
Top |
68-91 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Huskies. A pair of Pac12 teams will battle it out in Sin City this afternoon, when the Washington Huskies take on the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal really ran out of steam at the end of the season, losing seven of their last 11. One of those losses came at Washington by a score of 64-53. The Huskies have consistently put points on the board, averaging 83.3 points per game on 42.3 percent shooting this season. Stanford has really struggled to score, especially on the road. The Cardinal have averaged under 70 points per game overall, but just 57 points on 36.4 percent shooting at neutral sites. The Huskies come in at full strength, while the Cardinals lost their leading scorer half way through the season, and have suspended reserve guard Christian Sanders. Washington should have a huge edge on the glass, and they are also far better from the free throw line. The Cardinal are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 versus the Pac12, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record. Take WASH. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-08-16 |
Hawks v. Jazz -110 |
Top |
91-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Utah Jazz. The Jazz battled injuries early in the season, but after the return of Rudy Gobert they went on a seven game home winning streak. That game to an end when they lost to the Spurs a couple weeks ago. That started a tough stretch of five straight losses, but the losing skid came to an end in New Orleans on Saturday. They return home tonight to host the Hawks, and they've really played strong defense at home in Salt Lake City. Only once in their last 10 home games have they allowed an opponent to score over 100 points. The Hawks come in hot as winners of four of five, but this final game out West looks like a potential let down spot. It's going to be difficult for Atlanta to match the intensity of a gritty Jazz team in a heated battle for one of the last playoff spots in the West. Take UTAH. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-07-16 |
BYU v. Gonzaga -3 |
Top |
84-88 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga struggled early in the season with an inexperienced back court, but the Bulldogs still finished tied with the St. Mary's with a 15-3 record in the WCC, and a 24-7 overall record. Their size and skill up front is tough for opponents to deal with, and their young guards now have bit more experience under their belts. The BYU Cougars upset the Bulldogs earlier in the year, but Gonzaga got revenge with a 71-68 at Salt Lake City on Saturday. The two teams will meet in Las Vegas in the conference tourney tonight, and I expect to see a similar result to the last meeting. BYU couldn't get anything going against Gonzaga's defense, shooing just 22-of-67 (32.8 %) from he field. The Bulldogs come in as the hotter team, covering the spread in four of their last five. They have been very good at the free throw line during that span, hitting 78 percent. The Cougars have failed to cover in three of their last five, and are shooting just 67.5 percent from the charity stripe. Free throw shooting could be a big factor in tonight's game, and that may not bode well for BYU. Take GONZ. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-07-16 |
Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5 |
Top |
50-56 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies have quietly been making bettors a fortune at home, going 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 home games. They host the Western Michigan Broncos in a MAC Tournament game tonight, and they already beat the Broncos 76-67 just over a week ago. The Broncos have only won two road games all year long, with a dismal 2-11 road record. While there's nothing easy about handicapping college hoops, I think this is a case of the obvious choice being the best choice. Take NIU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-05-16 |
Louisville v. Virginia -5 |
Top |
46-68 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavs. The situational handicappers will be licking their chops tonight, lining up to bet on the Cardinals in this revenge game against Virginia. The Cavs trounced the Cardinals in Louisville back in January, handing them their worst loss of the season. I've written extensively about "situational handicapping" throughout my career, and I consider it to be one of the most overrated strategies that a sports handicapper can focus on. I do take note of "revenge spots" such as we see in tonight's game, but unless there are several other key factors that line up in favor of the team seeking revenge, I wouldn't want to bet on that team to do what it failed to do in the previous meeting. There's no reason to think that "revenge" will trump the effort of a Virginia team playing it's final home game before gearing up for the playoffs. Louisville on the other hand is serving a self imposed ban this post-season, so doesn't have anything left to play for. The Cardinals are just 4-6 on the road while Virginia is 14-0 at home. Louisville has failed to cover in eight of it's last nine road games, and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record. The Cavs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning straight up record. Take UVA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-04-16 |
Jazz v. Grizzlies -115 |
Top |
88-94 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Memphis Grizzlies. The bookmakers have reacted to the fact that Memphis has lost Marc Gasol for the remainder of the season, but the Grizzlies have won six of eight since he went down. Both losses during that span came on the road, and they boast a stellar home record of 22-9. The Grizzlies will host the struggling Utah Jazz tonight, and they are just a slight favorite. The Jazz have lost four straight overall, and five straight on the road. They may be one of the best defensive teams in the league, but the bulk of their success has come in Salt Lake City. Utah's road record of 9-20 inspires little confidence that they can upend the Grizzlies here in Memphis. Bettors have been getting buried backing the Jazz, who have failed to cover in six straight, and eight in a row when playing on one day's rest. I still find it a little mind boggling that I can take the Grizzlies as the short favorite here even though they are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games. Take MEM. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-04-16 |
Princeton -5.5 v. Harvard |
Top |
71-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Princeton Tigers. The Harvard Crimson have dominated the Ivy League in recent seasons, but they have been brutal in 2016. Harvard has lost eight of 12 games in conference play, and they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 overall. Harvard has been burying bettors, going 7-21 ATS in their last 28 versus the Ivy League. They've lost three of their last four home games, including a double digit loss to Yale. Princeton trails Yale by just a half a game in the Ivy League standings, with a 10-1 conference record. The Tigers beat Harvard at home by a whopping 21 points earlier this season, and they should win tonight's game by a wide margin. Princeton has covered the spread in five of it's last seven at Harvard, and four straight on the road. Take PRIN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
Wisconsin -10 v. Minnesota |
Top |
62-49 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the BIG10's bottom feeders, with a conference record of 2-14. They have a losing home record, and they have suffered double digit home losses at the hands of Michigan and Northwestern, and they are coming off a 13 point loss on the road at Illinois. Normally you would expect a pretty strong effort from an underdog like Minnesota in it's final home game, but with three of it's top players suspended for the remainder of the season, maybe not. The Gophers might just fold like a cheap suite here without leading scorer Nate Mason, who had 31 points in the team's only two wins in conference play. Wisconsin has won four straight in this series, and three of those wins came by double digits. They won in Minnesota last year by a score of 76-63. Take WISC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
Pistons v. Spurs UNDER 202 |
Top |
81-97 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@SA to go UNDER the total. The Spurs are by far the best defensive team in the NBA, and they host a Detroit Pistons team tonight that is quite content to play a defensive style. The Pistons have held their last five opponents to an average of just 95 points. They've failed to reach the total in six of their last eight overall, and four of their last five road games. The Spurs are 28-0 at home, and they've been dominant defensively in the majority of those games. They tend to step up the defensive intensity against better teams, failing to reach the total in eight of their last 10 against teams with a winning record. They have just come back from a long road trip, and the under is 16-7-1 in their last 24 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
Jazz v. Raptors -5.5 |
Top |
94-104 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. The Utah Jazz are a prime example of a Jekyll and Hyde team, playing great defense at home, but really struggling on the road. They've lost six of their last eight overall, and four straight on the road. They have not been a good bet in previous meetings with the Raptors, failing to cover in five straight versus Toronto. The Raptors scored an average of 106.4 points in those games, and they averaged 113 points in their home games during that span. The Jazz have surrendered 100 points or more in each of their last five road games. The Raptors have won 11 straight at home, covering the spread in eight of those games. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
Jazz v. Raptors OVER 193 |
Top |
94-104 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UTAH@JAZZ to go OVER the total. The Utah Jazz are a prime example of a Jekyll and Hyde team, playing great defense at home, but really struggling on the road. They've lost six of their last eight overall, and four straight on the road. They have not been a good bet in previous meetings with the Raptors, failing to cover in five straight versus Toronto. The Raptors scored an average of 106.4 points in those games, and they averaged 113 points in their home games during that span. The Jazz have surrendered 100 points or more in each of their last five road games. The Raptors have won 11 straight at home, covering the spread in eight of those games. Six of the last eight in this series have gone over the number. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure +4 |
Top |
90-98 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The Bonnies will host St. Joes on Wednesday, and it's senior night at St. Bonaventure. History certainly favors the Bonnies, who have won four straight meetings, including a double digit win at St. Joe's earlier this year. The Red Hawks are currently in first place in the A-10, but a home win for the Bonnies would move them into a tie with St. Joe's. St. Bonaventure has won eight of it's last nine overall, and the one loss came on the road at La Salle. They have scored an average of 82.2 points on 49.3 percent shooting over their last five games, and they are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take SBON. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-01-16 |
Hawks +10 v. Warriors |
Top |
105-109 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks. The Warriors are inching closer to their goal of breaking the all time regular season win record currently held by Jordan's Bulls. They have won five straight, but four of those games were close, decided by just a few points. They could be pushed to the brink at home tonight, hosting the Atlanta Hawks, who have given them good games in the past. Steph Curry is battling an ankle injury, and his status for tonight's game is still in question. "We'll err on the side of caution. But if he's healthy enough to go, we'll play him." said Steve Kerr. The Warriors are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and I think they are asked to cover an inflated number tonight Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-01-16 |
Virginia v. Clemson +5 |
Top |
64-57 |
Loss |
-106 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers. It's Senior's Night at Clemson, and the Tigers will be all fired up as they get set to host the Virginia Cavs. As well as Virginia has played of late, the fact is that they are just 4-6 on the road. I don't think the Cavs have any business being a sizable favorite on the road tonight, where Clemson has won seven of it's last eight. The Tigers covered the spread in six of those games, and even when they lose they don't lose by much. Three of their last four losses came in games decided by three points or less. This game appears to be destined to be a close, low scoring affair, and the home dog looks like a bargain Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-29-16 |
76ers v. Wizards UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
108-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@WAS to go UNDER the total. The Washington Wizards have won five of seven since the All Star break, much because of an improved defense. They've held their opponents to fewer than 100 points in each of the wins in that span, and odds are we'll see a low-scoring contest when they host the woeful Philadelphia 76ers Monday night. Philly has lost eight straight since a 103-98 win against the Nets on Feb. 6. It lost 130-116 at Orlando yesterday when it scored a season high while shooting 53.2% from the field. We're unlikely to see as many points tonight though as the the under is 4-1 in its last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and meetings with the Wizards generally have been low-scoring affairs. The Wizards defeated the 76ers 106-94 on Feb. 5 and 103-94 last Friday. Six of the last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the total with both teams playing on a back-to-back we're unlikely to see either team looking to drive up the tempo. The Wizards defeated a Cleveland team without the rested Lebron James 113-99 last night, allowing the talented Cavaliers to shoot just 40.0% from the field. The 76ers are the league's lowest-scoring team at 96.2 points per game and should pose little offensive threat. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-28-16 |
Heat v. Knicks UNDER 198.5 |
Top |
98-81 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@NYK to go UNDER the total.
Only the San Antonio Spurs have allowed fewer points than Miami. The Heat's 2nd ranked defense has allowed just 96.9 points per game, and they come into New York without their leading scorer. These two teams have failed to reach the total in seven of the last 10 meetings, and tonight's total is far higher than it was in any of those contests. The Knicks are hardly an offensive powerhouse, ranking 23rd in the NBA in scoring averaging just 99.4 points per game. The Knicks have gone under in 11 of their last 12 home meetings with Miami, and six of their last eight home games overall. The Heat have gone under in eight of their last 11 against teams with a losing record, and nine of their last 13 versus Eastern Conference teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-28-16 |
Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest -134 |
Top |
81-74 |
Loss |
-134 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
It's been a disastrous season for Wake Forest, with just two wins in 16 games in conference play. This team isn't nearly as bad as it's win/loss record indicates though, and their final home game comes against one of a few teams in the ACC that they should be able to beat. The Virginia Tech Hokies have overachieved, winning seven games in conference play. Still the Deacons six home wins are three more than the Hokies have on the road. Virginia Tech is coming off a road win at Boston College Tuesday, but had lost five straight away from home previously.
Wake lost at Virginia Tech by a score of 93-91 earlier this year, and will have a chance to avenge that loss here on senior's night. The Hokies don't have a lot to play for, as they won't be competing in the NCAA tournament. The Deacons are coming off a double digit home loss to Notre Dame, playing without leading scorer Devin Thomas. Their senior forward is back for tonight's game, and Wake is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Take WAKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-28-16 |
Duke v. Pittsburgh |
Top |
62-76 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke has won six of it's last seven overall, and two of those wins came on the road. Most recently they upset the North Carolina Tar Heels at Chapel Hill by a score of 74-73. They are on the road Sunday, facing a Pittsburgh team that has lost four of it's last six. Two of those losses came at home, most recently a 67-60 loss to Louisville on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has yet to beat a Top 25 team, and leading scorer Michael Young has struggled averaging just 12.7 points over his last six games. Duke appears to be playing it's best basketball heading into the tournament, and the same can not be said for Pitt. The Panthers are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-28-16 |
Xavier -1.5 v. Seton Hall |
Top |
81-90 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
The #5 ranked Musketeers have won four straight, and nine of their last 10. They are 25-3 overall, and they are coming off a massive win over the Big East leaders Villanova. They face a Seton Hall team that also has an impressive resume, with a 12-3 home record, and a 10-5 record in the Big East. Not a single one of those victories came against an opponent like Xavier though, and the Pirates three losses at home are more than Xavier's two on the road. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and they are more points and shooting for a higher percentage on the road than Seton Hall is at home. Xavier is hitting 76.3 percent from the free throw line on the road, while the Pirates have hit just 64 percent at home. This is the kind of game that could easily be decided at the free throw line, and if that's the case the edge goes to the visitors.
Take XAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-27-16 |
Nets v. Jazz UNDER 195 |
Top |
98-96 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BKN@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
After averaging 113 points while winning two of three games, the Jazz managed just 78 points in a home loss to the Spurs Thursday. They host the lowly Brooklyn Nets tonight, and I expect a low scoring affair against a Nets team that averages just 97 points per game. Brooklyn has lost three straight versus the Jazz, scoring an average of just 82 points in those games. Two of those games went under the total, and the other was a 108-86 Utah win, which still didn't see enough points to reach tonight's total.
Utah is far better defensively at home, and they are particularly tough when coming off a double digit home loss. They've gone under in eight straight when coming off such a one-sided defeat. The Jazz have gone under the total in 22 of their last 32 versus the Eastern Conference, and nine of their last 12 versus teams with a winning percentage less than .400.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-24-16 |
Villanova v. Xavier -1 |
Top |
83-90 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. Xavier is 24-3 overall, and one of those three losses came on the road at Villanova. They get a chance to execute a little revenge here at home tonight, and they looked pretty good in a win at Georgetown over the weekend. The Hoyas were one of just three teams to beat Xavier this year, and the Musketeers punished them in the rematch winning 88-70. The loss at Villanova was particularly tough, with Edmond Sumner getting carted off on a stretcher in the opening minutes. The Freshman guard is back, and firing on all cylinders, scoring 22 points on 6-of-9 shooting in the win at Georgetown. Villanova has won seven straight, but has only covered the spread in three of it's last seven. The Wildcats have been cruising through the weaker teams in the Big East, but this is by far their toughest test to date. The Musketeers are 13-1 overall at home, scoring 83.2 points and shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc in those games. The Wildcats stats on the road are nowhere near what they are at home, and they face a Musketeers team that is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Take XAV. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-22-16 |
Virginia v. Miami (Fla) |
Top |
61-64 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Miami Hurricanes.
The Virginia Cavs are getting plenty of respect from bookmakers, as they aren't getting much of a spread on the road at Miami Monday. The Cavs have played well of late, and most people think they are the better team here. That might be true at a neutral site, but I expect the Canes to prove to be the better team on their home floor. Miami is 13-1 at home, and tied with Virginia in second place in the ACC with a 10-4 record within the conference.
While the Cavs have some impressive road wins (at Louisville and Pittsburgh), they lost their last road game at Duke, and are just 4-5 away from home on the season. Miami has won all it's home games against ACC teams, including impressive wins over Duke and Notre Dame by a combined 20 points. The Canes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, and they have won three of their last four home games against Virginia. The one loss came in overtime last season.
The Cavs are one of the top defensive teams in the country, but Miami can play defense as well. In fact, the Canes are allowing fewer points per game at home (62.9) that the Cavs are on the road (63.2). Miami also scores an average of 76.8 points on 48.2 percent shooting at home, more than 10 points better than the Cavs score on the road.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-20-16 |
St. Mary's +6.5 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
63-58 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. Gonzaga sits in first place in the West Coast Conference, one game ahead of St. Mary's with a 13-2 conference record. Both teams have 21 wins overall, but the Gaels have two fewer losses. This Gonzaga team has continued to beat up on weak opposition in the conference, but when they've faced tougher opponents they've failed miserably. That was on full display last Saturday when they lost 69-60 at SMU. They've lost to BYU, UCLA, Arizona, Texas A&M and at St. Mary's earlier this year. The Gaels lead the nation in field goal percentage (.509), and they are ranked 5th in three-point percentage (.421). They shot 50 percent from the field in the win over Gonzaga earlier this year, and I think they'll keep this game close tonight. The Bulldogs are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record, and they are asked to cover a big number in tonight's game. The Gaels have covered the spread in six of their last eight against teams above .500. They've also won five of eight straight up on the road. Take SMC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-19-16 |
Celtics v. Jazz |
Top |
93-111 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Utah Jazz. Utah went into the All Star break hot, winning seven of eight. They struggled in a loss at Washington in their first game back, but I expect them to shake off the rust at home tonight hosting the Celtics. The Jazz have been very good at home, boasting a 17-10 record, which is even more impressive when you consider that they were without Rudy Gobert for an extended stretch. Gobert is back, and making his presence felt. He's recorded four straight double-doubles, and has totaled 49 rebounds in those games. The Jazz have covered the spread in seven straight at home versus teams with a winning record, while the Celtics are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning record. The home team is 7-3-2 in the last 12 meetings in this series, and still the Jazz aren't asked to cover any points at home tonight. I think the bookmakers aren't giving Utah enough credit on their home floor. Take UTAH. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-19-16 |
Pistons v. Wizards -110 |
Top |
86-98 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Wizards. The Wizards have under achieved all season long, but they may be showing signs of turning things around. They won two of four before the All Star break, and then beat a very good Utah team at home in their first game back last night. They host the Detroit Pistons tonight, and Detroit has really struggled on the road. The Pistons are 11-17 overall on the road, and they've lost three of their last four at Washington. They went into the All Star break in poor form, failing to cover in five of their last six. The Wizards have covered in four of their last five, and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 versus the NBA Central Division. Playing on back-to-back night's is normally considered to be a disadvantage, but in this case at home without any travel, I think it's far better than coming off a long layoff, as is the case for the visitors tonight. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-18-16 |
Maryland v. Minnesota +10.5 |
Top |
63-68 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
After losing 14 straight overall, you might think that his Minnesota team would throw in the towel. Not this team! Not this coach!
The Gophers and head coach Richard Pitino continue to play hard, and they appear to be determined to get that elusive first conference win. Tonight's home game against Maryland will be as good a chance as any for them to do just that. The Terps are 22-4 overall, but they haven't been a good bet as a double digit favorite.
Maryland has failed to cover in four straight versus teams with a winning percentage of less that .400. They have won three of their last five road games, but not one of those games were decided by double digits.
Diamond Stone is Maryland's second leading scorer, and he will be serving a suspension for an incident versus Wisconsin last week. The Gophers lost by just four points against Iowa on Sunday, and seven of their last eight losses have come by eight points or less.
Take MIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-18-16 |
Jazz v. Wizards UNDER 199 |
Top |
89-103 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UTAH@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Jazz won seven of eight heading into the All Star break, and they allowed opponents to average just 91 points per game during that span. The Jazz are one of the league's top defensive teams, while the Wizards are one of the worst. That being said, they haven't had much trouble playing defense in recent meetings with Utah. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and six of Utah's last seven trips to Washington have gone under the total.
The Jazz have played most of the season shorthanded, without center Rudy Gobert and the 23 year old has 37 rebounds and seven blocks in his last three games. Derrick Favors has also missed time, but he's scored 29 points in a 100-96 loss to New Orleans in the final game before the break.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-17-16 |
Oklahoma v. Texas Tech +5 |
Top |
63-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Oklahoma Sooners reign at the top of the polls has come to an end, but they are still one of the best teams in the country. That doesn't mean they have been a good bet, especially as a road favorite. Oklahoma has failed to cover in four of it's last five road games, and 15 of it's last 20 BIG12 games. The Red Raiders have won three of their last four, with big wins over Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Baylor.
This is a big revenge spot for the Red Raiders, who suffered their worst defeat of the season at Oklahoma last month. These teams have a history of playing hard fought battles here in Lubbock, and last year the Sooners won in overtime by a score of 79-75. Buddy Hield has cooled off, hitting just 12-of-33 shot attempts in the Sooners last two games. He scored just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting in the Sooners last visit to Texas Tech.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-17-16 |
Syracuse +8 v. Louisville |
Top |
58-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Louisville Cardinals are one of the top teams in the ACC, but they will NOT be playing in this year's tournament. While they boast an impressive record, they haven't been a great bet, failing to cover in 10 of their last 14 overall. They've lost back to back games at Duke and Notre Dame, and I think they are asked to cover way too many points at home to Syracuse tonight.
Here is what I said about Louisville before they played Clemson on January 10: "I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams."
They went on to beat Clemson, but failed to cover. The Cardinals will be a missing key big man Anas Mahmoud who is out for the season with an ankle injury. Clemson has covered the spread in four straight on the road, and they should be able to stay close here at Louisville.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-13-16 |
Louisville v. Notre Dame -1 |
Top |
66-71 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Notre Dame Irish.
Notre Dame comes into tonight's home game against Louisville as winners of three of it's last four. It's last home game was an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Irish have also beaten Duke on the road, and they are 11-5-1 in their last 17 versus the ACC. They are 12-1 at home, and they've covered the spread in four of their last five at South Bend. The Cardinals have not been a good bet on the road, failing to cover in six straight. The Irish are scoring over 80 points per game at home, and they are shooting 76.2 percent from the field at South Bend. Louisville is struggling at the free throw line this season, and the Cardinals have trouble scoring at the best of times.
Take ND.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-13-16 |
Texas A&M v. LSU -1 |
Top |
71-76 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers. The Tigers are hot, coming into Saturday's home game against Texas A&M as winners of four of their last five at home. The one loss came by just two points to #1 ranked Oklahoma in a non-conference game (SEC/BIG12 Challenge). The Aggies are coming off three straight losses, and they have struggled on the road with a record of just 3-4. Home court has been a big deal in this series, with the home team covering in eight of the last 10. LSU is 12-2 overall at home, while the Aggies have only covered once in their last seven on the road. Ben Simmons gets better with every game, and the Freshman will be looking to execute a little revenge after having one of his worst games in a loss at Texas A&M earlier in the year. Despite their struggles away from home, and the fact that they've failed to cover in five straight SEC games, the Aggies aren't getting any sort of a cushion here in today's game.
Take LSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-12-16 |
Dayton -1.5 v. Rhode Island |
Top |
68-66 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* pay on the Dayton Flyers.
The Flyers are sitting in the top spot in the A-10 with a conference record of 10-1. They will be just a slight favorite on the road tonight, facing a Rams team that has a 6-5 record within the conference. Perhaps this line is a little lower than one might expect, and that's likely influenced by the fact that Dayton hasn't won at Rhode Island since 2005. The Rams also have a respectable home record of 11-3. They did come up short in a home loss to St. Joes though, and all of their home wins within the conference so far have come against teams with a losing record. They've also lost three straight in this series versus Dayton, and the last two were blowouts.
Dayton is 5-1 on the road, and the Flyers come in riding an eight game win streak. It's not as though they don't have anything to play for, as a loss here would open the door for VCU and St. Joe's who are tied for second, each with a 9-2 record. The Rams have lost two of their last three, and starting forward Kuran Iverson has missed all three games with a concussion. He's averaging over 10 points per game, and if he can't go tonight it would be a big blow for the home team. The Flyers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Take DAY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-10-16 |
Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 195 |
Top |
96-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UTAH@NO to go OVER the total.
I took a bit of a bad beat least night when the Jazz tied the game with a buzzer beater and went on to win in overtime in Dallas. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Utah Jazz come into Dallas riding a six game win streak, but five of those six wins came at home. The exception was a 98-89 win at Phoenix on Saturday. The Jazz are dominant on defense, ranking second in the NBA allowing just 95.9 points per game. They aren’t nearly as successful on the road though, where they have an 8-15 record. Even Saturday’s win over the Suns saw a total of 187 points, enough to go over the number here tonight. The Jazz are a woeful 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they’ve allowed 99.7 points per game in their last seven on the road."
The Pelicans on the other hand have played quite well at home lately, and the total has gone over in each of their last four home games against the Jazz. Seven of the last nine meetings between these teams have gone over, and the Pelicans have gone over in 20 of their last 28 home games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
02-09-16 |
Jazz v. Mavs -125 |
Top |
121-119 |
Loss |
-125 |
13 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Mavericks.
The Utah Jazz come into Dallas riding a six game win streak, but five of those six wins came at home. The exception was a 98-89 win at Phoenix on Saturday. The Jazz are dominant on defense, ranking second in the NBA allowing just 95.9 points per game. They aren't nearly as successful on the road though, where they have an 8-15 record. Even Saturday's win over the Suns saw a total of 187 points, enough to go over the number here tonight.
The bookmakers may have over adjusted here, as this line has dropped from 190 all the way down to 183. The Mavericks have won six straight home games against Utah, scoring 100+ points in five of those games. The Jazz are a woeful 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they've allowed 99.7 points per game in their last seven on the road. The Mavericks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
Take Dallas.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-09-16 |
Toledo v. Buffalo -2 |
Top |
71-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bulls.
The Bulls have won four straight, and six of their last seven overall. They have won eight of 10 at home, and they have the second best record in the MAC. They host Toledo Tuesday, and the Rockets have lost three of their last five. One of those losses came at home to Buffalo, with the Bulls jumping out to a 10-point lead in the first half, and hanging on to win 73-68. The Bulls have won four of their last five home meetings versus Toledo, and they have covered the spread in five of the last six overall meetings between the two teams. Buffalo has superior depth, and their bench outscored Toledo's bench 28-17 in the last meeting. The Bulls should also have an advantage on the boards, averaging 36.3 rebounds per game at home.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-08-16 |
Louisville v. Duke -4 |
Top |
65-72 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
Defending champions Duke have lost a few key home games already in conference play, and because of that they are just a short favorite at home to Louisville tonight. Duke is coming off a couple wins in a row, beating Georgia Tech and N.C. State by a combined 17 points. The Cardinal are just 3-3 on the road, and they might not have their leading scorer healthy tonight. Damion Lee missed the last game with a knee injury, but he could return here against Duke. Given that Louisville will be serving a self imposed post-season ban, there really is no reason for players to push it if they are anything less than 100%.
Duke has won seven straight at home versus ranked opponents, and Duke is 179-12 (.937) at home since the 2004-5 season, second only to Kansas in winning percentage at home. The come in shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, going 25-of-51 from three-point range in their last two games. They have shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc at home this season, and score over 90 points per game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-06-16 |
Pelicans v. Cavs OVER 209.5 |
Top |
84-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NO@CLE to go over the total.
The Cavs have lost back to back games to Boston and Charlotte, and they host New Orleans on Saturday night. The Pelicans are coming off three straight losses, and they are are a significant underdog tonight. New Orleans failed to reach the total in their last game, but each of their previous nine games had gone over. Cleveland’s first game in the Tyronn Lue era was nothing short of a disaster, losing by double digits at home to the Bulls. After the game Lue questioned his team’s conditioning: “I think we have to play faster,” Lue told the team’s official website. “I think we have to utilize Kyrie and LeBron’s one-on-one ability in transition to open the floor more and run in more drags. We just haven’t been accustomed to playing that way …” They went on to score 110+ points in five straight games, and I think they'll have no problem scoring on an inferior opponent tonight.
Take OVER.
GL
Jesse Schule
|
02-06-16 |
Iowa State v. Oklahoma State +5 |
Top |
64-59 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Cyclones have lost back to back games, but still they are a road favorite at Oklahoma State here today. The Cowboys may not have a lot of wins on their resume in conference play, but they have certainly been competitive. While they have lost five of seven in conference play, three of those five losses came in games decided by five points or less. These teams have met four times since 2013, and all four of those games were decided by less than five points. Two of those four games required overtime to decide a winner. The Cyclones come in short-handed, with reigning BIG12 player of the year Jameel McKay suspended indefinitely: "I don't feel like I'm getting as high as I would normally," McKay said. "With what's going on with me, you've just got to kind of block it out and remember that it'll get better. ... It's not 100 percent. But it's getting better."
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-05-16 |
Grizzlies v. Knicks UNDER 197 |
Top |
91-85 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@NYK to go UNDER the total.
The Knicks are coming off a loss at Detroit last night, and they really got off to a horrible start, scoring just 36 first half points. They've now lost seven of their last eight overall, and they failed to score 100 points in five of those games. They will play their second game in as many nights at home against Memphis, and the Grizzlies are coming in as winners of eight of their last nine overall.
Memphis is scoring just 97.7 points per game this season, ranking 25th in the NBA. They are ranked 6th defensively though, surrendering just 99 points per game. The Grizzlies have won four straight against the Knicks, and seven of the last eight. Five of those eight games went over the total, but the number for tonight's game is far higher than it was in any of those previous eight. The Grizzlies have covered the spread in six straight against Eastern Conference teams, and they've failed to reach the total in nine straight when coming off three or more days of rest. Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-05-16 |
76ers v. Wizards UNDER 215 |
Top |
94-106 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@WAS to go UNDER the total. The Philadelphia 76ers have dropped four of their last five and the Washington Wizards have managed only one win over their last six. Odds are we'll see a low-scoring encounter when the two struggling teams match up at Verizon Center Friday night. Five of the last seven meetings in Washington have gone under the total and the 76ers were held to 87.0 points through four meetings overall last season. They've struggled on the ball all season and managed just 86 points in a home loss to the Hawks Wednesday. The Wizards are off a real high-scoring affair as they fell 134-121 to the Warriors two days ago. The under is interestingly enough 8-1-1 in their last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game though and 10-4 in their last 14 at home. John Wall scored a season-high 41 points against Golden State, but Philly managed to contain him pretty well last season holding the point guard to only 15.0 points per game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-05-16 |
Iona -175 v. Canisius |
Top |
84-66 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Iona Gaels. Iona comes into tonight's game at Canisius off a road win at St. Peters, and the Gaels have won nine of 12 in conference play. They are just one game back of the Monmouth Hawks, who sit in first place in the MAAC. Canisius is coming off a double digit loss at Rider, and it got crushed in it's last home game. The Griffins lost by 21 points at home to Sienna, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 at home. Canisius will have it's hands full trying to defend the Gaels star senior A.J. English. The senior scored 19 points at Canisius last season, but he comes into tonight's game averaging 22.3 points per game. Take IONA. GL, Jesse Schuel
|
02-04-16 |
Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
105-111 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYK@DET to go UNDER the total.
The Knicks head into Detroit coming off back to back losses, and they've won just one of their last seven overall. During that span they've failed to score 100 points in five of the seven games. Both these teams rank better on the defensive side of the ball than they do on offense, and I think tonight's total looks a little inflated. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has gone over, but the total in each of those games was significantly lower than tonight's number. The total has gone under in six of New York's last eight trips to Detroit. The Knicks have failed to reach the total in each of their last four games, and they shot just 37.8 percent from the field in a 97-89 loss to Boston their last time out.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-03-16 |
Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
81-85 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DEN@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Nuggets have been quite competitive recently, winning six of their last 12 overall. During that span they've only suffered one double digit loss, and they've covered the spread in five of their last six road games. They haven't had a lot of success against the Jazz in recent seasons, losing four of the last five in this series, with the total going under in four of five as well. Denver is getting a bigger cushion in tonight's game than in any of those previous five, and they could be catching Utah at a good time.
The Jazz have won three straight, and could be due for a let down after knocking off Chicago by a score of 105-96. Utah owns the league's 4th best defense, holding opponents to just 96.7 points per game. They rank among the worst in the NBA in scoring though, averaging just 97.9 points per game. Six of the last seven meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and I expect a tight, low scoring affair here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-03-16 |
Arkansas +9 v. Florida |
Top |
83-87 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Florida Gators have won four of their last five, but I think they are asked to cover a few too many points at home to SEC rivals Arkansas tonight. The Razorbacks are coming off back to back wins over Texas Tech and Texas A&M. They did lose their last two road games, but by a combined margin of just five points at LSU and Georgia. They've covered the spread in six of their last eight overall, and three of their last four versus Florida. Arkansas scores a ton of points, averaging 81.6 per game. They are a better free throw shooting team that Florida, hitting 71.1 percent from the line. The last two meetings between these teams went right down to the wire, with Florida winning both games by a combined three points. The underdog has covered in four straight in this series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Take ARK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-02-16 |
Buffalo v. Northern Illinois -3 |
Top |
90-78 |
Loss |
-118 |
14 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Huskies will put their perfect home record to the test once again tonight when they host MAC rivals Buffalo. The Bulls have really struggled on the road, losing seven of 10 this season. The Huskies are one of the better three-point shooting teams in the MAC, hitting 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. They are also dominant on the boards, averaging 37.7 rebounds per game at home. The Huskies are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games, and they've covered the spread in six of their last seven versus teams with a winning record. They are 26-10-4 ATS in their last 40 versus conference rivals. They also have a dominant defense, holding opponents to just 64.3 points on 39.3 percent shooting at home. They only gave up 49 points in a 58-49 win over Toledo in their last home game.
Take NIU.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-02-16 |
Heat v. Rockets OVER 204 |
Top |
102-115 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@HOU to go OVER the total.
The Heat have won four straight, and they've averaged over 100 points per game during that span. They will have their work cut out for them when they visit Houston tonight, facing a hungry Rockets team that has lost three straight. The Rockets score plenty of points, but they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, allowing opponents to score an average of 106.6 points per game. They have a history of of playing well against Miami, especially at home. Houston is 5-2 ATS in it's last seven versus the Heat, and it's covered the spread in six of it's last eight at home versus Miami. Dwight Howard won't have to contend with Hassan Whiteside, as Miami's leading rebounder is sidelined by a back injury. Miami has a losing record on the road, and is 7-17 ATS in it's last 24 road games versus a team with a winning home record. They've gone over the total in four of their last five visits to Houston
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-01-16 |
Texas v. Baylor -5 |
Top |
67-59 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears. The Texan Longhorns are coming off back to back home wins, and they've won five of their last six overall. They face a daunting task on the road tonight at Baylor though, as the Bears are 14-1 at home, and that one loss came at the hands of #1 ranked Oklahoma. Baylor scores an average of 81.7 points on 48.9 percent shooting at home, and they also average 37 rebounds per game. They should be able to dominate on the boards tonight, as Texas is averaging just 28.8 rebounds per game on the road. They are still without starting center and leading rebounder Cameron Ridley, who hasn't played since mid December. Texas lost at Baylor by 23 points last year, and it's dropped three of it's last four away from home. All four of Baylor's home wins against BIG12 teams have come by at least seven points. Take BAY. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-01-16 |
Bulls v. Jazz UNDER 193.5 |
Top |
96-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHI@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Jazz will host the Chicago Bulls in Salt Lake City tonight, and I expect to see another defensive battle. Each of Utah's last four games have gone under the total, and here is what I said prior to their last game against Minnesota:
"The Jazz will host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, coming off a dominant 102-73 win over Charlotte. They held the Hornets to 31 points in the first half, and Charlotte shot just 36.8 percent from the field. The Jazz have allowed opponent's to average just 84.6 points while winning two of their last three games. They own the league's 5th ranked defense, allowing opponents to average just 96.8 points per game for the season. They've been even better with a healthy Rudy Gobert, and the 7"1 center ranks among the league leaders averaging 2.6 blocks per game. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen 190 points or less, and the one exception was a 106-14 overtime win for Minnesota. The under 5-1-1 in Jazz last seven home games, and tonight's total is higher than it was the last three times these teams met."
With Chicago playing on back to back nights, the Bulls might have a tough time solving this Jazz defense. These teams have gone under in each of the last six head to head meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-01-16 |
Grizzlies v. Pelicans -133 |
Top |
110-95 |
Loss |
-133 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Grizzlies come into New Orleans tonight as winners of seven of their last eight overall. All but one of those wins came at home, and four of those games were decided by four points or less. The Pelicans have been hot, winning five of their last six, all of those wins coming at home. Anthony Davis scored 20 points and pulled in 16 rebounds in a win over Brooklyn on Saturday, and he's likely to have a big game at home tonight. The Grizzlies have failed to cover in seven of their last eight visits to New Orleans, while the Pelicans are are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Grizzlies are 9-13 on the road for the season, while the Pelicans have won 12 of their last 18 at home. This looks like a let down spot for the visitors, while the Pelicans appear primed for another home win.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-31-16 |
Celtics v. Magic OVER 204.5 |
Top |
114-119 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@ORL to go OVER the total. The Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics will take each other on for the back end of a home-and-home series Sunday night. The surging Celtics are riding a five-game winning streak and defeated Orlando 113-94 home at Boston Friday. They've averaged 113.0 points per game in that span and reached triple digits in each of their last 11 contests. The Magic have lost eight consecutive games while surrendering an average of 112.0 points per game in their last four. The Magic are far more effective on offense home at Amway Center than on the road, averaging close to 2.5 points more per contest in front of the home town crowd than their overall season average. Orlando's Tobias Harris was held to 10 points Friday but he is averaging 19.0 points in his last five home matchups against the Celtics. The over is 4-0 in Orlando's last four overall and 4-0 in Boston's last four when visiting a team with a winning home record. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-31-16 |
Richmond v. St Bonaventure -120 |
Top |
68-84 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The Bonnies will host A-10 rivals Richmond on Sunday, and they will be just a slight favorite. Richmond is coming off an overtime win at George Washington, but dropped back to back home games prior to that. St. Bonaventure has lost three straight, but two of those losses came at the hands of the two top teams in the conference, Dayton and VCU. They are 8-2 overall at home, covering the spread in four of their last five. They are 0-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Atlantic 10. The Spiders can score points with the best of them, but their defense is suspect. They've allowed 82 points per game on the road this year, and I don't think that's going to cut it here in today's game. Take SBON. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-31-16 |
Maryland v. Ohio State +5 |
Top |
66-61 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Maryland has been one of the more overrated teams in the country this season, and I think they are being asked to cover a few too many points on the road at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won back to back games, and seven straight at home. One of those wins was a 74-67 upset over the #4 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. The Terrapins have lost their last two road games at Michigan State and Michigan, and they have lost their last two trips to Columbus. The Buckeyes are cleaning up on the board, averaging 38 rebounds per game at home. They out-rebounded the Illini 51-34 in their last game, and I expect them to own the glass tonight against a Maryland team that has only averaged 32 rebounds per game on the road. Ohio State is 8-2-1 ATS in it's last 11 home games. Take OSU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Spurs v. Cavs UNDER 205.5 |
Top |
103-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Spurs own the NBA's best defense, allowing opponents to average just 90 points per game. They've won 14 of their last 15 overall, including a 99-95 win over the Cavs. Cleveland owns the best defense in the Eastern Conference, so it seems reasonable to expect a low scoring game here between these two powerhouse teams. The Cavs have been focused on playing a different style under new head coach Tyronn Lue, and they've played some high scoring games as a result. This will be Cleveland's second game of a back to back though, and Lue has recently acknowledged that his team is in terrible shape: "I just don't think we're in good enough shape right now to play in the style that we want to play," he said. These teams have faced each other three times over the last two seasons, and two of those games failed to reach the total. The exception was a game that the Cavs won at home in overtime. The Cavs have failed to reach the total in five of their last six when playing on no rest.
Take UNDER. GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Kings v. Grizzlies UNDER 203.5 |
Top |
117-121 |
Loss |
-102 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@SAC to go UNDER the total. Only three teams in the NBA have more home wins than the Grizzlies, and the Cleveland Cavaliers aren't one of them. That's right, the Grizzlies are money at home, but they still get no respect from bookmakers. Even though they have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 home games, they are just a slight favorite at home to the Kings on Saturday. The Kings are 8-14 on the road, and they've lost nine of their last 10 against the Grizzlies, and they scored an average of just 92 points per game in those losses. Eight of those 10 games went under the total, and tonight's number is higher than it was in any of those 10 contests.
They've lost four straight at Memphis, and they've failed to score more than 90 points in seven of their last 10 games against the Grizzlies. The Kings come in as losers of three straight, and another road loss looms large here in Memphis. Rudy Gay has missed the last two games with an eye injury, and he's likely to sit out again tonight. The Grizzlies have won six of their last seven overall, and five straight at home. They've gone under in six straight against teams with a sub .500 record.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
San Francisco +17 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
48-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off an 84-67 home win over Santa Clara, but the Broncos are one of the worst teams in the WCC. This year's Bulldogs team hasn't been nearly as dominant as it has been in previous years. They've already suffered three home losses versus Arizona, UCLA and BYU. They are asked to cover an enormous number here against a San Francisco team that is one of the highest scoring teams in the conference. The Dons played them tough in San Francisco earlier in the year, blowing a big lead late, and then losing in overtime. The Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and they have been terrible against the spread this season. They are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Don's have covered the spread in seven of their last nine overall, and six of their last eight as a road underdog. Take SF. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5 |
Top |
84-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas will host Kentucky in the BIG12/SEC Challenge on Saturday night, and the Wildcats have really looked vulnerable on the road. The Jayhawks on the other hand are 10-0 at home, and that includes a win over #1 ranked Oklahoma. Kentucky has lost at UCLA, LSU and Ohio State. The Wildcats have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 road games, and it doesn't get any tougher than this. Kansas has won and covered four straight non-conference games, while the Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. The competition in the BIG12 this year appears to be a cut above what the Wildcats have seen in the SEC. Kansas has won 34 straight at Allen Fieldhouse, and I expect that streak to continue here tonight. Take KU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
107-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@TOR to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors will host the Pistons on Saturday, and Detroit was roughed up at home by Cleveland last night. Toronto has won a record 10 straight, and they are favored to extend that streak at home tonight. One of the reason's for the Raptors success is their defense, ranking 4th in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 96.5 points per game. They've held opponents to an average of just 89 points while going under in each of their last four games. The Pistons are also above average defensively, and we should see a gritty hard fought battle between two Eastern Conference rivals. The Pistons have lost five straight when playing on the road in the second game of a back to back, and tonight's game looks like a particularly tough spot. I expect Toronto to grind out a win in a low scoring affair.
Take UNDER .
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
CS Sacramento v. Eastern Washington -8.5 |
Top |
67-74 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Eastern Washington Eagles. Last year's Big Sky champions have failed to impress this year, with a 10-10 overall record and just 4-4 within the conference. The Eagles have been dominant at home though, winning all seven of their games in Washington. The majority of those game were blowouts, such as Thursday's 112-83 shellacking of Portland State. Eastern Washington is averaging and incredible 92 points on 55.9 percent shooting at home. Sacramento State comes in as losers of five of it's last seven, and the Hornets are just 3-6 on the road. Starting guard Cody Demps has missed the last five games for the Hornets with a quadriceps injury, and he's questionable to play tonight. The Hornets have failed to cover in seven of their last nine versus the Big Sky. Take EWU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Virginia v. Louisville -5.5 |
Top |
63-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Louisville Cardinals. The Virginia Cavaliers have been a powerhouse in the ACC in recent years, but they've really struggled this season. They've dropped four of six on the road, and even though they managed to eke out a win at Wake Forest on Tuesday, they trailed by seven points with just 28 seconds remaining in that game. They connected with a trio of three-pointers in the final 14 seconds, including the winner at he buzzer. This should put them in a position for a big let down as they are in a much tougher spot at Louisville Saturday. The Cardinal are sitting in second in the ACC with a record of 6-1 in conference play. They are 13-0 at home, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last 10. Louisville should have an enormous advantage on the glass, coming in averaging more than 39 rebounds per game (10 more than the Cavs). They are lighting up the scoreboard at home, averaging 84.4 points on 51 percent shooting so far. The Cavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Take LOU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Georgia Tech v. Syracuse -5 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. Syracuse crushed Notre Dame at home on Thursday night, and I cashed in a winner in that game. Here is what I said before tip off: "The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals." The Orange have also been red hot from beyond the arc, shooting 40 percent from three point range over their last five games. They made 10 three-pointers in the win over the Irish. Georgia Tech is coming off a road win at North Carolina State, but had dropped three straight prior to that. After watching the Orange completely dismantle Notre Dame on Thursday, it's hard to imagine that the Yellow Jackets will have much of a chance here on Saturday. Take SYR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-29-16 |
Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 194 |
Top |
90-103 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIN@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Jazz will host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, coming off a dominant 102-73 win over Charlotte. They held the Hornets to 31 points in the first half, and Charlotte shot just 36.8 percent from the field. The Jazz have allowed opponent's to average just 84.6 points while winning two of their last three games. They own the league's 5th ranked defense, allowing opponents to average just 96.8 points per game for the season. They've been even better with a healthy Rudy Gobert, and the 7"1 center ranks among the league leaders averaging 2.6 blocks per game. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen 190 points or less, and the one exception was a 106-14 overtime win for Minnesota. The under 5-1-1 in Jazz last seven home games, and tonight's total is higher than it was the last three times these teams met.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-28-16 |
Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 196 |
Top |
83-103 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIL@MEM to go UNDER the total. The Milwaukee Bucks ended a two-game skid with a 107-100 win against the Magic two days ago. They'll visit the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday night in what should shape up to be a low-scoring contest. Five of the Bucks last six away from home have failed to go over the total and they're averaging two points fewer per game on the road than home in Milwaukee. They'll be put to the test here by a Grizzlies side that has been very efficient on defense in recent games. Good news for the Bucks is that Jason Kidd is back on the bench again as he's now recovered since undergoing hip surgery. He led the team for the first time in 17 games Tuesday when the Bucks held Orlando to 41.3% shooting from the field in a 107-100 win. Eight of the last nine meetings in the series have gone under the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-28-16 |
Notre Dame v. Syracuse -3.5 |
Top |
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Notre Dame Irish are coming into Syracuse as winners of four straight, and that includes a 95-91 upset win at Duke. They haven't had much success in previous meetings with Syracuse, losing six of the last seven meetings and four straight at the Carrier Dome. It's not going to be easy to avoid another loss tonight, with leading scorer Demetrius Jackson sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals. That's of particular concern for the Irish, who will rely on junior guard Steve Vasturia to take over ball handling duties with Jackson injured. Notre Dame is 1-4-1 ATS in it's last six games versus teams with a winning record.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-27-16 |
Louisville v. Virginia Tech +8 |
Top |
91-83 |
Push |
0 |
15 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Virginia Tech has lost back to back games, but both of those were close. Their last game was a 75-70 loss to North Carolina at home, and before that they lost at Notre Dame by a score of 83-81. They are getting a bunch of points at home tonight versus Louisville, and the Cardinals haven't been all that formidable on the road. They lost at Clemson, and wins at Georgia Tech and N.C. State came by a combined nine points. Louisville has struggled to score points on the road, averaging just 70.8 points on 43 percent shooting. The Hokies are averaging over 78 points per game at home, and they've allowed the opposition to average just 67.7. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, and they've failed to cover in six of their last eight overall. The Hokies have covered the spread in four straight at home, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Take VT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-26-16 |
Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 205 |
Top |
89-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@TOR to go UNDER. The Toronto Raptors are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, coming off eight straight wins. They host a Washington team tonight that has lost three of four at home. So should we chalk up an easy win for the Dinosaurs? I wouldn't be so quick to lay a bunch of points with a complacent home favorite facing a division rival. There's been plenty of bad blood between these two teams in recent years, and while Toronto has won all three meetings this season, the Wizards are 7-1 ATS in the last eight, and they've covered the spread in four straight at Toronto.
Neither team has managed to score 100 points in any of the previous three games this season, and eight of the last 10 meetings north of the border have come short of the total. The Raptors won their last home game against Washington by a score of 94-91, and Bradley Beal sat out that game with an injury. Beal is questionable to play tonight, after leaving last night's game due to suffering a blow to the head. He just returned after being sidelined for 16 games. The Wizards were 8-8 during that 16 game span.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-26-16 |
Indiana v. Wisconsin +2 |
Top |
79-82 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers. The Indiana Hoosiers are 7-0 in conference play, and their stock is on the rise. I think the #19 ranked Hoosiers are a little overrated coming into Wisconsin as a favorite. They just barely escaped with a 59-58 win at home when the two teams played earlier this season. Wisconsin has suffered a few losses at home, but they looked pretty tough in a 63-60 loss to Maryland. Melo Trimble hit a buzzer beater to break the Badgers hearts in that game. The Badgers most recent home game was an upset win over Michigan State, led by Bronson Koenig's 27 point performance. The Hoosiers have really struggled against Wisconsin, going 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and losing five straight in Madison. Take WISC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-26-16 |
Virginia v. Wake Forest +7 |
Top |
72-71 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 4-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last six overall, and all three wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. They snuck by Syracuse at home on the weekend, and now they are asked to cover a big number on the road at Wake Forest. The Cavs only have one win in five games on the road this season, and that was at Ohio State in December. They won that game 64-58, less than the margin they are asked to cover tonight. Virginia has since lost at Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. Not exacty powerhouse teams. Four of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by five points or less, and Virginia is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take WAKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-25-16 |
Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 |
Top |
90-120 |
Push |
0 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@GA to go UNDER the total.
The Golden State Warriors get all the headlines, but the Spurs aren't far behind. The Spurs are just two games back in the standings heading into tonight's showdown in Oakland. We'll see if the league's highest scoring team can light up the scoreboard against the NBA's best defense.
The Spurs took two of three meetings last year, and one of those wins came at Oracle Arena. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have fallen short of the total, and the Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus Golden State.
San Antonio comes in as winners of 13 straight, and they've held opponents under 100 points in nine straight. The Spurs are allowing an NBA low 89.8 points per game. The last time these two teams met, the Warriors were held to just 92 points on 42.9 percent shooting in a 107-92 loss.
The Spurs have really locked it down when facing top tier opposition, as evidenced by their 99-85 win over the Cavs. The Warriors also played a tight game against the Cavs at home on Christmas Day, winning 89-83. Chances are, this will be yet another tight, low scoring affair. Take UNDER
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-25-16 |
Spurs +5 v. Warriors |
Top |
90-120 |
Loss |
-104 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs.
The Golden State Warriors get all the headlines, but the Spurs aren't far behind. The Spurs are just two games back in the standings heading into tonight's showdown in Oakland. We'll see if the league's highest scoring team can light up the scoreboard against the NBA's best defense.
The Spurs took two of three meetings last year, and one of those wins came at Oracle Arena. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have fallen short of the total, and the Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus Golden State.
San Antonio comes in as winners of 13 straight, and they've held opponents under 100 points in nine straight. The Spurs are allowing an NBA low 89.8 points per game. The last time these two teams met, the Warriors were held to just 92 points on 42.9 percent shooting in a 107-92 loss.
The Spurs have really locked it down when facing top tier opposition, as evidenced by their 99-85 win over the Cavs. The Warriors also played a tight game against the Cavs at home on Christmas Day, winning 89-83. Chances are, this will be yet another tight, low scoring affair. I'll take the points.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-25-16 |
Pistons v. Jazz -121 |
Top |
95-92 |
Loss |
-121 |
19 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Utah Jazz. The Pistons have struggled on the road all year (9-14), and they coming off consecutive losses at Denver and New Orleans. It won't get any easier tonight in Utah, as the Pistons have been great at home. Even better with Rudy Gobert in the lineup, the 23 year old center had 18 points and 18 rebounds in his last home game, a 109-82 win over the Lakers. The Jazz have won four of their last five home meetings versus Detroit. The Pistons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, while the Jazz have covered the spread in five of their last six at home. The Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the league, holding opponents to just 97.4 points per game. Take UTAH. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-25-16 |
Celtics v. Wizards -135 |
Top |
116-91 |
Loss |
-135 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Wizards. The Wizards have won five of their last seven, but they did lose at home to Boston just last weekend. That game went right down to the wire, with Boston winning 119-117. I like the Wizards at home in the rematch tonight. Bradley Beal didn't play in the last game, but he's played the last two games, scoring 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting. The Wizards could benefit from a four day layoff, as they could get back Otto Porter and Drew Gooden. Washington has been plagued by injuries all year long, and I think this team could go on a run now that it's getting healthy again. We see a short line for the home team in tonight's game, and I think the Wizards should be a bigger favorite. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-25-16 |
Duke +3.5 v. Miami (Fla) |
Top |
69-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. We don't often see Duke as an underdog, but after sufferring three straight losses in conference play, the Blue Devils stock is low. All three of those losses came in close games against hot teams, and they turned things around with a double digit win on the road at N.C. State in their last game. Miami has an impressive record, but there's no denying that the Hurricanes have had a much softer schedule. Home court hasn't been much of an advantage in recent meetings between these two schools, as the home team is 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10. The Canes upset Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium last season, which sets up a nice revenge play here in Miami. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Syracuse +9.5 v. Virginia |
Top |
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 3-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last five overall, and both wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. Still they are asked to win by double digits at home to Syracuse, a team that's coming off big road wins over Wake Forest and Duke. The Orange got off to a slow start, but that's understandable as they were missing head coach Jim Boeheim. Since his return they have turned things around winning three of four, but they can't afford to too many more losses if they want to keep post-season aspirations alive. The Orange have really turned up the heat on defense, allowing just 63 points per game over their last five. That's slightly less than Virginia has surrendered during the same span. "Our rebounding has been better and our defense has been better and those are two things you have to do, especially defense," said Boeheim. Take SYR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Providence +13 v. Villanova |
Top |
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars.
The #16 ranked Providence Friars will be a big underdog at Villanova on Sunday, getting a double digit cushion. Providence hasn't had any trouble winning on the road, with a 4-0 record this year. Dating back to last season, they've covered the spread in eight straight on the road. They also have a history of playing close games against division rivals Villanova, as three of their last four versus the Wildcats have been decided by six points or less. The last meeting was a 63-61 home win for the Wildcats, who failed to cover as an 8.5 point favorite. Villanova is 7-0 in the Big East, and 10-0 at home. The Wildcats have been tested though, wins over Georgetown, Butler and Seton Hall all coming by a single digit margin. Providence has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 in this series, and the road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
Take PROV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
SMU v. Temple +7 |
Top |
80-89 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Temple Owls.
Temple has won six of it's last eight overall, and during that span the Owls upset Cincinnati twice (once on the road). They host the SMU Mustangs in an early game Sunday, and SMU is asked to cover a bunch of points on the road. While Larry Brown's team is still undefeated, they may be vulnerable to an upset here. They did win at Temple last January, but only by five points (60-55). The Owls won 71-64 at home in 2014, and they were an eight point underdog in that game. Temple doesn't have the offensive firepower to match the Mustangs, but the Owls can play defense. In fact they've held the opposition to just 58.8 points on 36.7 percent shooting over their last five games. One of those was an impressive 55-53 win at Connecticut. The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five in this series, and that trend should continue on Sunday.
Take TEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-23-16 |
Bulls v. Cavs OVER 201.5 |
Top |
96-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHI@CLE to go OVER the total. The Cavs are sitting in first place in the Eastern Conference, but seemingly out of nowhere they've fired head coach David Blatt. They have named Tyronn Lue as the interim coach, and he'll take over when the Cavs host Chicago as a double digit favorite on Saturday.
The news has sent shockwaves throughout the league, and not everyone is happy to hear it: "I'm embarrassed for our league that something like this can happen like this," Rick Carlisle said. "It's just bizarre. ... It just leaves you with a bit of an empty feeling, because Blatt's a great guy, and he did a great job there."
Ironically, the writing was on the wall since last year's playoffs, and perhaps Blatt's lowest point came in a win over the Bulls in Game 4 of the East Semifinals versus the Bulls. LeBron hit the game winner at the buzzer, and then later told the media that he completely ignored Blatt's designed play for the final possession: "I was supposed to take the ball out," James said. "I told Coach there was no way I'm taking the ball out unless I could shoot it over the backboard and go in. So I told him, 'Have somebody else take the ball out.' The play that was drawn up, I scratched it. I just told Coach, 'Just give me the ball. We're either going to go into overtime or I'm going to win it for us.'"
There's no doubt who calls the shots in Cleveland, and it isn't Tyronn Lue. Under David Blatt the Cavs showed plenty of discipline, with the best scoring defense in the Eastern Conference. We could see a change of philosophy under Lue, with more emphasis on the offense.
The Cavs offense was well below average in 2015, but they've been one of the league's highest scoring teams since January 1st. It's no coincidence that Kyrie Irving returned on January 2nd.
The Bulls have gone over in each of their last six road games, and I expect to see plenty of scoring in Cleveland tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-23-16 |
Arizona -140 v. California |
Top |
73-74 |
Loss |
-140 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Wildcats.
The Golden Bears are struggling, coming into tonight's home game versus Arizona as losers of three of their last four. They are coming off a rather uninspiring 75-70 home win over the Sun Devils, who are sitting in the cellar in the PAC12. They haven't had much success against Arizona in recent seasons, losing four straight and failing to cover in all four of those losses. It won't be easy tonight, as they are missing senior guard Tyrone Wallace, who will miss the next six weeks with a broken hand. Wallace leads the team in scoring with 15.4 points per game, and assists (4.6). Arizona has won three straight, but they absolutely demolished Washington and Washington State at home, and then won by double digits at Stanford in their last game. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 versus PAC12 teams. It looks like the Wildcats are catching Cal in a tough spot without it's best player.
Take ARZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-23-16 |
Vanderbilt +6 v. Kentucky |
Top |
57-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores. Kentucky has looked vulnerable lately, losing on the road at Auburn and LSU, and barely beating Mississippi State at home. The Wildcats may have their hands full at home this Saturday, hosting a Vanderbilt team that has won three straight. The Commodores crushed the Vols in Tennessee on Thursday by a score of 88-74. They hit 13 three-pointers, and out-rebounded Tennessee 50-43. The Vols have lost four of five overall on the road, but they've played some close games. They've actually covered the spread in nine of their last 13 road games. They've also been a great bet against Kentucky, as the Wildcats have failed to cover in seven straight against Vanderbilt. The Commodores will have a huge size advantage with a pair of seven footers, and junior forward Luke Kornet who has been a force during this three game winning streak. Kornet has scored 29 points, 31 rebounds with a whopping 16 blocks over the last three games. Take VAN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-22-16 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois -105 |
Top |
49-58 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Huskies won at Toledo by a score of 71-66 just over a week ago, and tonight they host the same Rocket team. Northern Illinois is still undefeated at home, with a 12-0 record. For some reason the bookmakers aren't impressed by that, as the home team isn't even the favorite tonight. The Huskies have the better record within the conference, as well as the better overall record. They enjoy a size advantage, and should have little trouble out-rebounding Toledo. The Huskies have won three of their last four versus Toledo, and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. The Rockets scored just 66 points on 40.8 percent shooting, and were 5-of-18 from beyond the arc at home versus NIU, and they might be hard pressed to improve on those numbers here on the road.
Take NIU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-20-16 |
Heat v. Wizards -170 |
Top |
87-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Wizards.
The Wizards are coming off a couple of tough losses to Boston and Portland, but they might be catching a break tonight hosting a banged up Miami team. The Heat have lost five of their last six, and they have several starters battling injury. Goran Dragic has missed the last four games with a calf injury, and he's not expected back any time soon. Birdman Anderson, Josh McRoberts and Beno Udrih are also expected to be unavailable for tonight's game. The Wizards have battled injury all year long, but have turned things around lately. Bradley Beal has played in three of Washington's last four games, and two of those were wins. The Heat have only managed to score an average of 87.8 points per game over their last six, and this looks like a tough spot to break out of a slump.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
Georgetown v. Xavier -9.5 |
Top |
81-72 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
The Georgetown Hoyas are coming off a home loss to Villanova, and they'll have their work cut out for them on the road at Xavier tonight. The Musketeers are 16-1 overall, and 9-0 at home. They've won their last four games by an average margin of 16 points, and two of those wins came on the road. They've covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 overall, and four of their last five versus the Hoyas. They've been historically great at home, going 41-18 ATS in their last 59 home games. The Musketeers scored 36 points on 12 made three pointers in their last home game, and also shot 80 percent from the free throw line in an 84-64 win over DePaul. The Hoyas will be at a severe disadvantage when it comes to rebounding and perimeter shooting, and I think it's going to be tough to overcome for the visitors.
Take Xavier.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-18-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
132-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on GS@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs came up just short in an 89-83 loss at Golden State on Christmas Day, and I bet the under in that game. Here is what I said before tip off:
"The Warriors look unstoppable, coming into this Christmas Day game against Cleveland with a 27-1 record. They lead the NBA in scoring, averaging over 115 points per game. Of course this is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, and we saw some close hard fought games in that series, with four of the six games falling short of the total. Even the two games that did go over, didn't see enough points to reach the inflated total we see in this game, even with overtime in Games 1 and 2.
As good as the Warriors look on offense, Cleveland has been locking it down on defense. The Cavs rank third in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 95.2 points per game. They've won six straight, and have surrendered just 87 points per game during that span. They've gone under in seven of their last 10, and only one of those games saw enough points to go over this game's total"
Cleveland is coming off a 91-77 win at Houston on Friday, and it lost by a score of 99-95 at San Antonio on Thursday. The Cavs have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight versus Western Conference teams, and the number in tonight's game looks a little inflated.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-17-16 |
Michigan v. Iowa -7.5 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa has won 10 of it's last 11 overall, and that one loss came on the road at rivals Iowa State in a game that they led 49-35 at halftime. They host Michigan Sunday, and the Wolverines are coming off a home win over #3 ranked Maryland. The Wolverines didn't exactly catch Maryland at their best, as Melo Trimble scored just two points on 1-of-7 shooting. They appear to be primed for a let down here in Iowa, against a team that has averaged 85.9 points on 46.9 percent shooting while winning all eight of it's home games. The Hawkeyes swept the series last year, winning both games by a double digit margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-2-1 in their last 11 versus conference rivals, and Michigan is shorthanded without it's best player Caris LaVert. The Wolverines got crushed in an 87-70 loss to Purdue in their last road game, The Boilermakers owned the boards in that game, out-rebounding Michigan 36-28. They are likely to struggle on the boards here in Iowa as well, the Hawkeyes average 38 rebounds per game at home.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Oklahoma State +7.5 v. Texas |
Top |
69-74 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Texas Longhorns had lost three of four overall before beating Iowa State in overtime, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. Texas is a big favorite here on Saturday against Oklahoma State, and I am not convinced that the Longhorns can cover such a number. Their win over the Cyclones was only their second in the last five games, and each of their last three wins have come by three points or less. The Cowboys have been a good bet in previous meetings, going 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 versus Texas. The Longhorns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Seton Hall v. Providence -6 |
Top |
81-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars.
The Friars will host Big East rivals Seton Hall on Saturday, and they've won four straight in this series. The Pirates have lost back to back games to Creighton and Villanova, and they are just are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 versus the Big East. Providence has covered the spread in five of it's last six versus Conference rivals. Providence won the last meeting by a score of 79-66 at Seton Hall last March. The Friars scored 29 points at the charity stripe in that game, and they are averaging 71.2 percent from the free throw line this season. The Pirates are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big East, while the Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference rivals.
Take PROV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-16-16 |
Notre Dame v. Duke -8.5 |
Top |
95-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. Duke is coming off a sub-par performance on the road at Clemson, losing by a score of 68-63. The Blue Devils had won five straight prior that, and they are still undefeated at home. Few teams can say that they've had any success at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Blue Devils are 58-1 in Durham since Nov. 9, 2012, and one of those wins was a 90-60 blowout against the Irish last year. The Blue Devils have covered the spread in seven of their last nine versus conference rivals, and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. They've averaged 93.5 points on 50 percent shooting while going 10-0 at home, but perhaps their biggest advantage over the Irish is on the boards. They are averaging almost 40 rebounds per game, while the Irish are averaging less than 30. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
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01-15-16 |
Cavs v. Rockets OVER 204 |
Top |
91-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
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This is a 10 play on CLE@HOU to go OVER the total. This looks like a let down spot for the Cavs, who saw their eight game winning streak snapped last night in San Antonio. Last night's game was a low scoring affair, but I don't expect to see Cleveland play with the same defensive intensity here in their second game of a back to back, against a Houston team that likes to run. Since the return of Kyrie Irving, the Cavs have been scoring a ton of points. During their eight game win streak, they averaged 109 points per game. They should get their fair share of points tonight, as Houston is one of the league's worst defensive teams. Previous meetings between the two teams have trended over, with six of the last nine meetings exceeding the total. The Rockets have also gone over in each of their last five home games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
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01-14-16 |
Kings v. Jazz UNDER 200.5 |
Top |
103-101 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on SAC@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Jazz are coming off another road loss at Portland last night, falling to just 6-13 away from home. They are back in Utah tonight though, hosting the struggling Sacramento Kings. The Kings are coming off back to back home losses to Golden State and New Orleans, and they are just 5-12 on the road. They've lost three straight visits to Salt Lake City, and they've failed to score 100 points in all three of those games. Don't expect them to score 100 points while playing their second game in as many nights here against a Jazz team that ranks 5th in the league in points allowed. They should be even better defensively with Rudy Gobert back in the lineup. He's made an immediate impact, with 10 blocks in his last three games. The Jazz have won four straight at home, and they've gone under in four of their last five in Utah. The Jazz have failed to reach the total in 22 of their last 30 home games versus teams with a losing record. They should be able to shut down the Kings tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
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01-14-16 |
Pittsburgh +7 v. Louisville |
Top |
41-59 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 39 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers. The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a loss to Clemson on Sunday, and yet they are still asked to cover an enormous spread at home tonight against a Pittsburgh team that has won 10 straight. I bet against Louisville in their loss to Clemson, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"The Louisville Cardinals will be a big favorite on the road at Clemson Sunday, and I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams."
They have now failed to cover in four straight (I bet against them in all four games), and one of those was a home win over Wake Forest by single digits. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 83.6 points on 48.9 percent shooting over their last five games. During that same span the Cardinal have scored just 75.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Perhaps the biggest edge for the visitors is that they rank first nationally, shooting 80.1 percent from the free throw line. Louisville is hitting a rather pedestrian 68 percent from the charity stripe.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-14-16 |
Cavs v. Spurs UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
95-99 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 12 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on CLE@SAS to go UNDER the total. The San Antonio Spurs are the league's top defensive team, with an opponent's scoring average of just 89.7 points per game. They will host the league's second best defensive team tonight, and Cleveland is coming in riding an eight game winning streak. You can bet both these teams are going to bring their A-game tonight, and I expect to see a gritty game with both teams playing tough defense.
The last time we saw Cleveland play such a high profile game was on Christmas Day, when they lost at Golden State by a score of 89-83. I bet the under in that game, for my NBA Total of the Year. I expect to see a similar pace here in a game that should have a "playoff" atmosphere.
The Cavs have gone under in eight of their last 11 road games, and they've failed to reach the total in six of their last seven versus teams with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-13-16 |
Florida State v. NC State -1 |
Top |
85-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 9 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the N.C. State Wolfpack.
The Florida State Seminoles have kicked off conference play with three straight losses, all of the "blowout" variety. They are on the road at N.C. State tonight, and the Wolfpack are also looking for their first win against a conference opponent. While both teams have lost three straight, the Wolfpack have a lot more to hang their hat on. They've played relatively well, losing by five points at Virginia Tech, and by just three points at Wake Forest. Their lone home game during that span was against #16 ranked Louisville, and they pushed the Cardinals to the brink, but lost 77-72. They have been a good bet in recent meetings with Florida State, winning three of the last four outright, and covering the spread in all three of those victories. Last year they won by a score of 72-63 at Tallahassee, and leading scorer Anthony Barber didn't even play in that game. That didn't stop them from cleaning up on the boards, and limiting FSU to 19-of-51 (31.7%) from the field. I expect the home team to take care of business here against a team that they've owned in previous seasons.
Take NCST
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-13-16 |
Duke -6.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
63-68 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The Clemson Tigers are flying high, but I think they're about to get their wings clipped here at home versus Duke. I bet on Clemson as a nine point dog at home when they played Louisville on Sunday, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams. Clemson isn't a great team, but the Tigers are 7-2 at home, and they've played their best ball while winning back to back games against Florida State and Syracuse."
Now they are playing a much stronger Duke team, and they are getting fewer points. This is also a let down spot for the Tigers, who might be feeling a bit too good about himself coming off such a big upset. Duke is coming off five straight wins, scoring an average of 92.4 points on 51 percent shooting. The Blue Devils have shot 53 percent while winning both their road games so far this season, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus conference opponents.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-13-16 |
Rhode Island v. St Bonaventure -109 |
Top |
64-69 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies.
The Rhode Island Rams are coming off a 72-67 loss at St. Josephs on Sunday, and they've now lost three of four on the road. Tonight's game won't be easy, visiting a hot St. Bonaventure team that is 7-1 at home. The Bonnies have won four straight, and their last home game was a 97-85 win over Davidson. They've now covered the spread in eight straight against conference rivals, and still they aren't asked to cover any points here at home tonight. Rhode Island has failed to cover the spread in eight of it's last nine meetings with the Bonnies, and the Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Take SBON.
GL, Jesse Schule.
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01-12-16 |
Iowa State -1.5 v. Texas |
Top |
91-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 54 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Hawkeyes. The Texas Longhorns have lost three of their last four overall, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. I think he will be sorely missed here against the Cyclones, who have looked very solid on the road. Iowa State won outright at Cincinnati, and lost a close game 87-83 at Oklahoma. Texas got killed on the boards in a loss to TCU on Saturday, and it shot just 37.1 percent from the field, and 14 percent from three point range. "I think offensively, we've got to continue to get better at playing faster," coach Shaka Smart said , "getting out in transition to get some easier baskets, because right now we're struggling to shoot the ball from outside in the half court." The Cyclones have averaged 82 points on 47 percent shooting on the road so far. Take ISU. GL, Jesse Schule
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01-12-16 |
Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 204 |
Top |
101-106 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on CHI@MIL to go UNDER the total
The Bulls are coming off a home loss to Washington, and they will play their second game of this back to back in Milwaukee. The Bucks are one of the worst teams in the league, but they have been pretty competitive at home, with a record of 10-7. Their last home game was a 96-95 win over Dallas, and I think we'll see another low scoring game here against the Bulls. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with seven of the last 10 failing to reach the total. The number here in tonight's game is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. Five of the last six meetings in Milwaukee have gone under the total. Former defensive Player of the Year returned from a nine game absence last night, and he was 0-for-7 failing to score a single point. He did pull in nine rebounds in just 19 minutes though.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-12-16 |
Spurs v. Pistons UNDER 194.5 |
Top |
109-99 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on SA@DET to go UNDER the total.
The Spurs are coming into Detroit as winners of eight straight, and during that time they have allowed opponents to average just 92.1 points per game. San Antonio ranks first in the NBA in points allowed, holding opponents to just 89.4 points this season. The Pistons have also locked it down defensively in recent games, holding opponents to an average of just 90.4 points over their last seven games. They've won four of their last five outright, and they are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. This will be the second game in as many nights for San Antonio, and we all know that coach Popovich is known to rest players in such situations. The Spurs have failed to reach the total in 13 of their last 19 when playing on no rest. The total here looks a little too high all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-12-16 |
Florida v. Texas A&M -5.5 |
Top |
68-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 53 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies are 13-2 overall, and 9-0 at home. They host the Florida Gators tonight, and I don't think this game will be all that close. The Aggies are coming off a win on the road at Tennessee, just a few days after the Vols crushed Florida by a score of 83-69. The Gators are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Florida has averaged just 58.8 points per game on 37.8 points per game on the road this year. They've really struggled at the free throw line, hitting just 58.3 percent. The Aggies are averaging 86.8 points on 51.4 percent shooting while remaining unbeaten at home. They've covered the spread in five straight home games versus a team with a losing road record.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-11-16 |
Heat +12.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
103-111 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 26 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Miami Heat.
The Golden State Warriors are 17-0 at home, and they might just be the best team in the NBA. I still don't think they should be asked to cover a double digit spread at home against Miami tonight. The Heat are coming off a 98-83 loss at Utah, in a game where they might have been looking ahead. They had won five of their previous six on the road, and they actually have a history of playing well in Oakland. They've won outright in eight of their last 11 at Golden State. The Heat own the league's 2nd best defense, allowing opponents to average just 94.8 points per game. Golden State has won four straight by double digits, but three of their last five home wins have come by less than a dozen points. The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in five straight when playing on one day's rest, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five versus Eastern Conference teams.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-10-16 |
Valparaiso v. Detroit +7.5 |
Top |
92-74 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Detroit Titans.
Valparaiso is a great team, and it's coming off an impressive road win over a good Oakland team. The Crusaders were a three point favorite in that game, but would win by a score of 84-67. Here we are just a few days later, and Valparaiso is facing another tough opponent on the road, but this time they are asked to cover a much bigger number at Detroit, a team that is undefeated at home. The Titans are 9-0, scoring an average of 87.4 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting in those games. They've played Valparaiso seven times since March of 2012, covering the spread in five of those seven games. They won four of those contests outright, and most of their losses came by just a few points. The Titans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Crusaders might be missing starting PG Keith Carter, the senior is listed as questionable with a foot injury.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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