Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-21-19 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - On the one hand, these are two of the worst hitting teams in MLB and each of the first two games of this series have remained under the total. However, on the other hand, these are two of the worst bullpens in MLB and that becomes a factor when two starting pitchers - each likely to struggle - are taking the mound. The Royals start Mike Montgomery. The KC southpaw, in 15 appearances (3 starts) on the road this season, has compiled a 1-3 record with a 7.16 ERA. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .353 against Montgomery in his 15 outings away from home this season. As for the Orioles starter, a struggling Aaron Brooks gets the start in this one. Since coming over from Oakland, Brooks' experience in Baltimore has been nothing short of a disaster. The Orioles right-hander is 0-4 with a 9.22 ERA in his 7 starts and opponents are hitting .345 against him! Prior to yesterday's low-scoring game, the last 7 games between these teams had totaled an average of 12.3 runs per contest. I see every reason to believe this one gets to at least a dozen runs as well. That said, I also like the added value here as the very first numbers that popped up on this one had the total at an 11 but the market makers quickly moved the total down to a 10.5 and I am grabbing the additional value. The last 23 times that the Royals have been a road favorite of -110 or more, only 7 of the 23 (30%) resulted in an under. Prior this series, the over was on a 16-5-2 run in Orioles games! Look for things to return to "normal" Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-20-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - No team had more hits (15) than the Twins last night and yet Minnesota scored only 4 runs. It was a result of some double plays and some wasted opportunities as the Twins left 10 men on base. To put this in proper perspective, the Nationals also had 15 hits last night and they scored 13 runs. The Rangers had 14 hits lead to 8 runs and the Angels had 13 hits lead to 7 runs. The fact is that crazy results happen sometimes and now I look for the Twins bats to stay hot tonight but this time the runs are commensurate with the hits. Minnesota will take advantage of facing Reynaldo Lopez. The White Sox right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings at Anaheim in his most recent start. He has a 5.57 ERA on the road this season and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Lopez away from home. Also, he got rocked for 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his lone appearance against Minnesota earlier this season. The Twins are starting Michael Pineda here. I am well aware that he has been solid this season but he is still recovering from a triceps strain. In his first start back he tired early and started to get hit harder. Also, the White Sox will be seeing him for the 3rd time in a span of less than 2 months. Familiarity for hitters with a pitcher in a short period of time generally leads to more success with each successive start. Pineda has been hit at a .270 clip in night games this season and it is no fluke as he has been hit at clips of .290, .273, .288 in night games his 3 prior seasons. He is much better in day action. The first total that popped up on this game was over 10 -120 and now the total is available at 9.5 and plus money on the over. This is a great value in a game which should see the hitters enjoying plenty of success. Also, 2 righties on the mounds means some extra left-handed lumber at the plate and the wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field tonight. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-20-19 | Phillies -109 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This is a money line play I would suggest betting with "action" rather than listed pitchers. The reason I say that is because there is a 99% chance Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies but the Red Sox could change their mind about Brian Johnson. While it may seem surprising to see the Phillies as the slight favorite on the road at Fenway Park in this one, note that Boston is only a .500 team at home this season. Also, Philadelphia is 8-5 in interleague games this season while the Red Sox have gone 3-5 in interleague games. Additionally, the Phillies are a fantastic 11-4 this season when playing after a day off and they have their staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola is 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in his last 11 starts. In 8 of those 11 starts he has allowed earned runs of just 1 or 0. Boston's Johnson has gotten rocked at .350 clip by opposing hitters this season and that means he is lucky he has "only" a 6.45 ERA in his 10 appearances (5 starts) this season. The bullpens are roughly equal here so I like the big starting pitching edge the Phillies have here as well as the other factors noted above. Still concerned about fading Boston here? Note that the Red Sox are 3-10 this season at home when the money line is +125 to -125. Road rout expected here as the Phillies get a much needed win and improve to 9-2 in Nola's last 11 starts overall and also 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-19-19 | Brewers +118 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday MLB 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - Since the All Star break the Cardinals have a .390 slugging percentage which ranks them dead last out of all 30 teams. The Brewers, on the other hand, have a solid .275 batting average since the All Star break which ranks them in the top ten of the majors. That said, I like the road dog to outhit the home fave in this key divisional showdown. St Louis is starting Dakota Hudson. Though the right-hander is off a solid start he had struggled in each of his 3 prior outings and I expect things to quickly return to normal for Hudson after a rare strong start versus the Royals. Note that Hudson is getting hit at a .284 clip in home games this season and a .288 clip in night games. The Brewers Zach Davies had some poor recent numbers but I attribute that to health. Now, making his first start in a couple weeks after resting up on the injured list, Davies will pitch much better tonight. The Milwaukee right-hander has excelled on the road (2.97 ERA) and in night games (2.67 ERA) this season. I expect more of the same on Monday evening. Also, this is a bit of a high-pressure game considering how tight the playoff race is. That said, it is certainly noteworthy that Davies is in his 5th MLB season while Hudson is in just his 2nd MLB season and also his very first season as a starter. Grab the road dog in this one! 10* MILWAUKEE |
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08-19-19 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles gave up 13 runs in yesterday's game and have the worst bullpen in the majors. The Royals gave up 11 runs in yesterday's game and their bullpen is not much better that Baltimore's. The KC bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors for opponents batting average as well as team ERA. The O's did put 7 runs on the board yesterday and Kansas City did score 5 runs. That said, I look for a lot of offense again today considering the above as well as the starting pitching match-up in this one. Baltimore is starting John Means and he has allowed 13 earned runs in just 10 and 2/3 innings spanning his past 3 starts. The Orioles southpaw was unable to make it out of the 4th inning in any of those starts. That said, the horrible Baltimore bullpen could be called upon early in this one. The Royals bullpen also could enter the Monday game early as well. Kansas City is starting Jorge Lopez and the right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.82 ERA on the season. He has been particularly poor as a starter. In the starting role this season Lopez is 0-6 with a 7.59 ERA in his 11 starts this season. Only 3 of his 11 starts this season have resulted in an under. Speaking of trending toward higher scoring games, the over is 7-1 in the last 8 starts Means has made. You can see why I am fully expecting a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-18-19 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 3:10 ET - Hot afternoon at hitter-friendly Coors Field Sunday. Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and this afternoon's match-up should match that at a bare minimum. Note that the Marlins Jordan Yamamoto is 0-4 with an 8.28 ERA in his last five starts. Fellow rookie, Rockies right-hander Peter Lambert has struggled all season and this has been particularly true in his day game outings. Colorado's Lambert has made 5 day game starts and he has been hit at a .340 clip in this outings while compiling a 9.00 ERA. The Marlins have had just 2 unders in their past 17 games. Since July 31st, Miami is 12-2-3 to the over. The Marlins beleaguered bullpen continues to struggle and they're likely to be called upon early in this one considering the recent struggles of Yamamoto. As for the Rockies, they have one of the worst home bullpen ERA marks in the majors. Lambert averages only 5 innings per start so the Colorado bullpen will have plenty of bearing on the outcome of this total as well. Rockies games have had just 3 unders in their last 11 games. The over is 12-2 this season when the Rockies are a home favorite of -150 or more. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-18-19 | Padres v. Phillies +109 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs San Diego Padres @ 1:05 ET - The Phillies were a -130 money line favorite when lines were first being posted on this game. Now they are nearly a +110 dog as the bettors are loving the Padres here. They can have San Diego is what I say as the Padres are a miserable 9-17 this season against left-handed starters. Also, SDG is 0-6 in Joey Lucchesi's 6 starts since the All Star break. This is a battle of southpaws and Philadelphia's Jason Vargas has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his two home starts since coming to the Phillies. Also, the Padres Lucchesi has seen his fastball velocity tick downward recently. The Phillies had won 4 straight games - and scored an average of 7.5 runs in those 4 victories - prior to yesterday's loss. The Padres, prior to yesterday's win, had lost 4 of their past 5 games and averaged scoring just 4 runs per game in those 4 defeats. Overall, San Diego is on a 15-25 run their past 40 games. The Phillies are 11-3 this season in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. I love fading line moves - not blindly but where it is supported by logic - when the favorite flip flops because of the markets and becomes an underdog. Grab the home dog in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-17-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite the Red Sox scoring 8 runs. Look for another big game from the Boston bats Saturday but the difference in this one will be the fact that Baltimore will join the party! The Orioles should enjoy success against Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez. Although the Red Sox southpaw has enjoyed success against Baltimore this season, this will be the 3rd time that the Orioles are seeing him and I expect the 3rd time to be the charm. Why would that be? Well, the fact is that Rodriguez is having a rough August. He has been hit at a .310 clip this month and has a 5.60 ERA while walking a dozen in just 3 starts. Another struggling hurler in this one is Asher Wojciechowski. The Orioles right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his 3 starts this month. Also, he has allowed 2 homers per outing this month and also has walked 3 batters in each of his 3 starts! Though he shut down the Red Sox in his first start this season, he is not in good current form and now faces a powerful Boston team in the venue where they thrive - Fenway Park. As for the Orioles hitters, prior to yesterday's poor effort, the team had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 5 games overall. In terms of run scoring on the road, Baltimore had scored an average of 6 runs per games their last 10 games prior to being held to 1 run yesterday. As for the Red Sox offense, as per usual, they've been on a hot tear at Fenway Park. Boston has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in their past 30 home games. The over is 21-9 in those 30 games at Fenway Park and all signs point to the over trend resuming here after yesterday's rare under. The Orioles bullpen has a 6.09 ERA which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 12-3-2 in Baltimore's last 17 games. You read that right. The Orioles have had just 3 unders in their last 17 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-16-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Orioles start former A's pitcher Aaron Brooks in this one. Since coming to Baltimore from Oakland, Brooks is 0-3 with a 9.41 ERA in his 6 starts. Brooks got absolutely throttled by the Astros in his most recent start. The Orioles right-hander will be opposed by another struggling right-hander in this one. Rick Porcello gets the start for Boston in this one. The Red Sox right-hander, since the All-Star Break, has been hit at a .297 clip while compiling a 6.97 ERA in his 6 starts. Porcello has allowed 13 homers in just 39 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 8 starts. When you're allowing an average of 1 homer every 3 innings plus getting hit at a .300 clip, it does not take long to find yourself in trouble. Porcello is facing an Orioles team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 5 games overall. In terms of run scoring on the road, Baltimore has scored an average of 6 runs per games their last 10 games. As for the Red Sox offense, as per usual, they've been on a hot tear at Fenway Park. Boston has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in their past 29 home games. The over is 21-8 in those 29 games at Fenway Park and all signs point to the over trend continuing here. The Orioles bullpen has a 6.04 ERA which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 12-2-2 in Baltimore's last 16 games. You read that right. The Orioles have had just 2 unders in their last 16 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-15-19 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 12 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
UPDATE: The Twins are now expected to use Michael Pineda as a starter in this one. The right-hander is coming off the injury list (Triceps) and will make his first start in two weeks. He is 1-4 with a 5.05 ERA in his career starts against Texas. I like this total whether Pineda or Smeltzer gets the start. Pineda entered this season with a 5.16 ERA and a .287 batting average in road games since the start of the 2016 season. He is known for struggling more on the road and he is getting hit 20 points higher this season on the road compared to at home. Also, Pineda's road starts this summer (since June 1st) have all come against bad teams or weak-hitting teams. Facing the Rangers at Texas is going to be the toughest challenge he has faced in a long time. I look for plenty of runs from the Rangers whether Pineda or Smeltzer is on the hill. ORIGINAL: Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers got their sticks going in a 7-3 win at Toronto early yesterday afternoon. Now Texas is back home where they generally thrive at the plate. I know this is a big total we're working with here but this game has "slug fest" written all "over" it. The Twins Devin Smeltzer is coming off of a start where he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. That was at home. Note that in the rookie's only road start this season he also got rocked as Smeltzer allowed 5 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings. The Minnesota left-hander allowed 4 homers in that start! Again, slug fest is expected here for a number of reasons as you can see and here is another one: Pedro Payano is starting for the Rangers. Like Smeltzer, he is also a rookie. Payano's ERA makes it look like he is adjusting to MLB opposition better than he truly is. Pavano's 3.86 ERA belies the fact that he has a 1.71 WHIP! That WHIP means for every 3 innings he pitches he allows 5 baserunners! Eventually that will catch up with him and he is facing a dangerous Twins lineup here. Minnesota has a .514 slugging percentage in road games this season. That ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! Texas has a solid .472 slugging percentage in home games this season and that ranks them in the top third of the majors! The Rangers will get their runs at home in this one but Payano is likely to get rocked. Also, the Texas bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Payano has nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Smeltzer makes just the 2nd road start of his career. It will be a hot and steamy night in Arlington and this park is known as a hitters paradise when conditions are like this. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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08-14-19 | Cubs v. Phillies -113 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
NL Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies won the first game of this series to improve to 35-26 in home games this season while dropping the Cubs to a poor 23-36 in road games this season. If you had just played the home team in all of Chicago's games this season you'd be sitting high and mighty with a 77-42 record! The fact is that home field is not being given enough respect in this match-up Wednesday night. Sure Cole Hamels would like to win in his return to Philly but Philadelphia staff ace Aaron Nola is on the mound in this one. When Hamels has struggled this season it has been on the road and that was the case again in his most recent start. Hamels was rocked for 5 runs (4 earned) in just 3 innings at Cincinnati. In road outings compared to home Hamels is being hit 49 points higher. In night games compared to day action Hamels is being hit 66 points higher! As for Nola, since he got hot after some rough sledding earlier this season, he almost always comes up big at home! The few times Nola has been tripped up in recent months have almost always been on the road. In fact, Nola has allowed 1 earned run or less in 8 of his last 12 starts! The Phillies lost Nola's most recent start (at SF) but they entered that one having gone 7-1 in his last 8 starts! The Phillies are 37-22 this season when the money line is -100 to -150. The Cubs are 7-19 this season as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-14-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - The first game in this series got to 14 runs (the posted total in most spots on Monday) by the top of the 7th inning but then the run-scoring died out. Then the second of this series had a great early start with plenty of runs from Arizona but Colorado left 12 men on base for the game and went 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position. That is how you can have a series so far that has miraculously seen neither of the first two games go over the closing number even though BOTH should have. As a result, I have no hesitation in stepping in here and pounding the over in the 3rd and final game of this series. It will be a hot afternoon at Coors Field and the ball will carry even better than usual given the conditions. As for the pitching match-up, Kyle Freeland is 3-10 with a 7.06 ERA on the season. That is part of the reason he was sent to the minors during the season as well. That move really hasn't change anything however. Freeland has gone 1-4 with a 6.91 ERA since his return from the minors. As for Robbie Ray, he has found Coors Field to be a nightmare of sorts in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2016 season, Ray has allowed 23 runs (15 earned) in 24 and 2/3 innings. Yes that means the Rockies score about a run for every inning they have faced Ray in his last 4 starts at Coors Field. Overall, from 2016 to 2018 Ray compiled a 7.19 ERA in his 9 starts against the Rockies. The Dbacks bullpen has a 4.44 ERA on the road this season and the Colorado bullpen has a 6.28 ERA in home games this season. Arizona has averaged 9 runs per game in their last 3 road games at Coors Field and you know what the Rockies are capable of here. Look for this one to finally be the slugfest that does NOT stop on Wednesday! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-13-19 | Red Sox -112 v. Indians | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Indians again blew a save opportunity in the top of the 9th inning yesterday but they survived courtesy of an opposite field walk off homer from Carlos Santana. Of course he is the same guy who hit a grand slam the day before in the top of the 10th after the Indians bullpen blew the save in the bottom of the 9th inning. Without Santana the Indians would likely have lost both those games. That is noteworthy here because the switch-hitter is hitting .182 in his 22 career at-bats against Chris Sale. The Red Sox southpaw comes into this one off a fantastic start and I look for him to come up big here. Though the Tribe have a great record against lefties this season their slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers actually ranks them among the worst teams in the majors at 23rd out of 30. As for the Red Sox against right-handed pitching, they are hitting .280 which ranks them #1 in the majors! Also, Boston has a .446 slugging percentage on the road this season which ranks them 7th out of all 30 teams. Mike Clevinger has been pitching very well for the Indians but he has an 8.03 ERA in his career against the Red Sox and has allowed a pair of homers in each of his two starts against Boston at Progressive Field. Sale has a particularly bad start at Cleveland in August of 2017 but in his other 4 starts in this ball park since the start of the 2014 season, Sale has allowed only 6 earned runs in 23 and 1/3 innings. That equates to a 2.31 ERA for the Boston southpaw. Sale shows a 6-11 record this season to the betting marketplace while Clevinger has a 7-2 record and yet the Red Sox are favored on the road here. Why? Take a wild guess where the sharp money is on this one...exactly! 10* BOSTON |
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08-13-19 | Rangers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -118 | 1 h 45 m | Show |
UPDATE: The Blue Jays are now expected to use Wilmer Font in this one as a starter. However, he most likely will just be used as an "opener" so Thomas Pannone is likely to still have an impact on this game. Either way, note that Font has a 6.89 ERA in his 9 night game appearances this season. I look for plenty of runs from the Rangers whether Font or Pannone is on the hill. ORIGINAL: Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn has a 7.65 ERA in his 4 starts against the Blue Jays the past few seasons (including a rough outing this season). The Blue Jays Thomas Pannone allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 and 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his most recent start at Rogers Centre. Ironically, in the lone start of his career against the Rangers, Pannone also allowed 7 earned runs in only 2 and 1/3 innings at Texas in early May of this season. Yesterday's game was a 19-4 blowout win for the Blue Jays and I expect the Toronto sticks to remain red hot here as Lynn's history against them is poor. This total opened up at a 10 and has dropped to as low as a 9 which is offering huge value on the over in this one. The Rangers have a .447 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that puts them in company with solid hitting teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, Astros, and Twins. Look for Texas to get to Pannone early and often and also note that there is reason to believe Lynn's struggles against Toronto continues considering the way the Blue Jays were swinging the sticks yesterday. Behind Lynn is a Rangers bullpen that has a 4.85 ERA to rank among the worst pens in MLB. The Texas sticks have struggled of late but facing Pannone will bring out the best in them. As for the Blue Jays, they have scored an average of 8.1 runs per game in their past 7 home games and they've scored 5 or more runs in 6 of those 7 contests! The Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in 10 of their last 14 games against the Blue Jays. I look for each team to get to 5 runs here and, of course, that is a situation that would guarantee at least 11 runs would be scored (6-5 game) at worst. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-12-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - In 11 starts at the MLB level, Peter Lambert is 2-3 with a 6.87 ERA and opponents are pounding him at a .311 batting average. Lambert's ERA is 13.00 in his two starts thus far this month. The Diamondbacks didn't hit very well in their weekend series with division rival Los Angeles but those games were at Dodger Stadium. Look for Arizona to pound the ball on a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly ball park as Lambert, a rookie pitcher, continues to struggle at Coors Field. Also note that behind Lambert is a Rockies bullpen that is known for struggling in home games. The Diamondbacks certainly will have pitching concerns of their own in this one as they hand the ball to Merrill Kelly. The Arizona right-hander is also a rookie and he is 4-7 with a 5.21 ERA in his dozen road starts this season. Kelly will be facing the Rockies for the 3rd time already this season and he has struggled against Colorado. Kelly enters this start enduring some overall struggles of late as he has a 10.67 ERA in his last 3 starts. With the Diamondbacks bullpen also averaging more than 4 innings per game in their weekend series with the Dodgers, the Arizona pen is not exactly in ideal shape heading into this game. The over moves to 4-1 in Kelly's last 5 road starts. The Rockies enter this game on a 5-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-12-19 | Red Sox v. Indians +105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #962 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Many will be backing Boston here off a one-run extra--innings loss and facing Cleveland off an emotional extra-innings win yesterday. This is already evident in the way this line has been acting so far in the market place. That said, in typical contrarian fashion, I am happily investing in the home dog in this match-up. The Red Sox loss yesterday was their 11th in their last 14 games! The fact is Boston is slumping badly! As for the Indians, they have been playing very well for an extended stretch. Cleveland has won 21 of its last 28 games. So here you have a home dog winning 75% of its games over the past month facing a road team that has lost about 80% of its games the past two weeks. I'll take the home dog every time in a situation like this UNLESS the roadie has some big pitching edge. That is certainly not the case here! Eduardo Rodriguez starts for Boston. The Red Sox hurler is a left-hander and that is noteworthy because the Indians are 24-12 against southpaw starters this season! Also, Rodriguez has as many walks as strikeouts in his two starts this month. As for the Indians Zach Plesac, he has a 2.33 ERA in his last 5 home starts. Also, in his 6 night games this season, he is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA and he has held opponents to a .198 batting average. The Indians, yesterday's 9th inning implosion notwithstanding, most certainly do have the better bullpen in this match-up as the Tribe rank at the top of the majors this season while the Red Sox pen has fallen off considerably this season. 10* CLEVELAND |
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08-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - This total has dropped to an 8 after opening up at an 8.5 when lines first were posted on this game. I understand the move as Hyun-Jin Ryu has phenomenal numbers this season. The key to the value here with this total actually involves multiple aspects. The Dodgers Ryu was said to have a neck issue and is coming off the 10-day disabled list. Even if his neck injury was minor, the extra time off could throw off his rhythm here. Additionally, Ryu is facing a Diamondbacks team whose .498 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers ranks them #1 in the National League! As for the Diamondbacks starter, Mike Leake, he is likely to get rocked here. He is getting hit at a .284 clip this season and, in his first start since coming to Arizona from Seattle, Leake was very fortunate. He allowed only 2 earned runs in his 5 innings of work even though he allowed 11 hits. I expect the Dodgers to punish Leake early and often in this match-up. Last night LA had 4 runs by the 4th inning but the game died after that. On Sunday look for Los Angeles to keep it going all the way through and for the Diamondbacks to join the "hit parade" party in this one as Ryu will not be as sharp as usual and they have fared well against lefties this season. Arizona did use 5 innings of bullpen again yesterday - for the 2nd straight game - and an early exit for Leake (likely) could also prove costly here. Don't be surprised if the Dodgers get this total into the winning side of the ledger all by themselves. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-11-19 | Indians +137 v. Twins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 137 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) @ Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - The Twins will be a popular choice here since they are at home with Jose Berrios on the mound and laying a "manageable" price on the money line in this one. However, I like Aaron Civale over Berrios in this match-up for multiple reasons. Civale has pitched extremely well in his two starts at the MLB level this season and this gives him the confidence to win a key divisional road game like this. He has shown at every level that he can get it done. For example, the jump from AA to AAA in the minors did not slow down Civale in the slightest. Additionally, now going from the minors to the majors Civale has remained "on point" with his pitching. The Indians are off a 4-1 loss yesterday but they are a PERFECT 7-0 the last 7 times they are off a defeat in which they scored 2 or less runs! Also, Cleveland was 7-1 in their past 8 games prior to yesterday and the Tribe had scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 7 victories. The slumping Twins had lost 4 straight games at home and 11 of their last 18 home games prior to yesterday's win. Now after one win yesterday Minnesota is expected to be back on track? I am not buying it and the fact is that the Twins are facing Civale for the first time ever while the Indians are facing Berrios for the 4th time already this season. Though Berrios has enjoyed success against Cleveland this season, he did allow 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings of work in his last start against the Indians. Also, Berrios got crushed by the Braves on Tuesday and now faces a Tribe team that had been RED HOT before yesterday's loss. This is a beautiful value spot for a sizable underdog to roll to a road rout! 10* CLEVELAND |
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08-10-19 | Astros v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 23-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - Aaron Sanchez had a very surprising debut for the Astros. However, lets not forget that the former Blue Jay is 1-8 with a 6.83 ERA in his 12 road starts this season. Opponents have hit .310 against him away from home and the Orioles are a divisional foe of Toronto so they have plenty of familiarity with Sanchez. Though the Astros right-hander has a low ERA in his recent starts against Baltimore he has had issues with far too many walks. Sanchez has more walks than strikeouts in his last 4 starts against the Orioles and they could make him pay for issuing too many free passes in this one. Baltimore is off back to back losses but averaged 5.5 runs per game in their dozen games prior to the back to back low-scoring defeats. Also, the Astros lineup was on fire before yesterday's low-scoring win. The fact is that the teams combined to go a miserable 2 for 19 with runners in scoring position in yesterday's game. That won't happen again here. Prior to the 3-2 win yesterday, Houston had averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game in going 9-1 in their 10 prior games. The Orioles have the worst bullpen in the American League and they could be called upon early in this one with Aaron Brooks on the mound. The Baltimore right-hander has averaged less than 4 innings per start in his 5 outings (winless I might add) since coming to the Orioles. Brooks has a 6.63 ERA with the O's and also a 6.65 ERA in his major league career. Look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-09-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees JA Happ will be facing his former team. Though he has enjoyed success against the Blue Jays, Happ is likely to struggle here. He enters this start in poor current form as he has a 6.04 ERA since the All Star break. Also, Toronto has been hot at the plate as the Blue Jays have averaged 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games. Speaking of hot at the plate, the Yankees are on absolute fire. New York has won 9 straight games and averaged 8.6 runs per game during this winning streak! The over is 16-3 in the Yankees last 19 games. The over is 3-0 in the Blue Jays last 3 home games and all 3 of those games have totaled 18 runs or more! The Jays Sean Reid-Foley has not given up many earned runs (1 in 9 innings) since he moved back into the rotation a couple weeks ago but he has been very fortunate! Toronto's Reid-Foley has walked 8 plus allowed 8 hits for a total of 16 base runners in 9 innings. The fact he only allowed 1 earned run was a minor miracle and he won't be so fortunate against the streaking, and powerful, Yankees! The Yanks, as a road favorite of -110 or higher, are an incredible 26-5 to the over this season! More of the same on Friday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-08-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Angels Dillon Peters is off a strong outing but he has made only two starts this season. The fact is the southpaw has been hit hard for much of his 3-year career at the MLB level. Peters has a 5.23 ERA in 20 games (13 starts) at the MLB level and the lefty has been hit at a .289 clip. This season he has a low ERA but in limited action and plus Peters is still getting hit hard - .290 BAA this year. He'll be opposed by Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale. The Boston left-hander has not been himself since June and I look for that to continue here. Sale has gone 2-4 with a 7.47 ERA in his last 6 starts. The lefty has given up 11 homers in his last 8 starts. Look for Sale to struggle with an Angels lineup that has plenty of power hitters in it on a hitter-friendly night at Fenway Park. Also, Peters threw over 100 pitches in a long outing last week. Don't be surprised if Peters "peters out" early in this one as a result. That said, the Angels bullpen is mediocre at best this season and the Red Sox pen also falls into the "middle of the road" category this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-07-19 | Padres v. Mariners OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres @ 6:40 ET - The Padres have some weaker offensive numbers due to their pitcher-friendly home park. On the road this season San Diego actually has a solid .446 slugging percentage which ranks them #3 in the National League! This is a battle of southpaws Wednesday and the Padres rank 6th in the National League with a .443 slugging percentage against lefties. As for the Mariners, they also have a .443 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 7th in the American League. Look for Seattle to have a big day at the plate here as they face a struggling Joey Lucchesi. The Padres left-hander appears to be running out of steam as the season has gone on. Also, Lucchesi has struggled on the road throughout this season. The lefty is 1-4 with a 6.46 ERA in his 9 starts away from home. As for the Mariners Yusei Kikuchi, he has been known for his struggles this season but also for getting solid run support. This is why the over is an amazing 17-4-2 in his 23 starts this season. He has struggled for much of this season and certainly is showing no signs of any type of drastic turnaround either. In fact, Kikuchi is going the wrong direction. Since the All Star break, Kikuchi is 0-2 with an 8.24 ERA in his 4 starts. With yesterday's 9-4 Padres win, San Diego has now scored 5 or more runs in 7 of its last 9 games. The over is 6-2 in the Padres last 8 games. The Mariners had won 5 straight home games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those victories prior to yesterday's ugly loss. The M's sticks are sure to bounce back but look for Kikuchi's struggles to continue! 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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08-06-19 | Braves +147 v. Twins | Top | 12-7 | Win | 147 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Certainly the Twins and Jose Berrios deserve respect at home. However, this line is really showing absolutely no respect to a Braves team that has the 2nd best record in the National League and also has a respectable pitcher on the mound here. Mike Foltneywicz may not have good numbers this season but after his demotion to the minors don't be surprised when he comes back with plenty of fire and passion for tonight's start. Instead of sulking about his demotion to AAA Gwinnett, Foltneywicz worked on his pitches, showed great improvement with his slider, and went 5-1 in ten starts in the minors. In his last 3 starts there he compiled a 1.13 ERA. He'll be ready tonight. Also, Foltneywicz had a 2.85 ERA and held opponents to a .195 batting average last season. As for the Twins Berrios, yes he is off back to back strong starts but the most recent one was against miserable Miami. Also, lets talk about the form Berrios had in his prior recent starts which included some quality opposition. Berrios allowed 26 hits, walked 9, and hit 3 batters in his 4 prior starts which spanned 23 innings. Atlanta is off back to back losses and they are 6-1 the last 7 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, the Twins are a money-burning 7-12 (-$11,400) this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. I am grabbing the big dog value with a Braves team whose 34 road wins on the season ranks them #1 in the National League. 10* ATLANTA |
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08-06-19 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Each bullpen gave up 3 earned runs in yesterday's game and that doesn't come as a big surprise. The Red Sox bullpen has fallen off this season and they rank only in the middle of the pack this season for bullpen ERA. The Royals bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors both for batting average against and bullpen ERA. That said, with both starting pitchers in this match-up likely to struggle, look for another game going over the total Tuesday. This total opened up at an 11 but then dropped to a 10.5 which is offering great line value on the over. Andrew Cashner has struggled badly since coming to the Red Sox. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and has been hit at a .333 clip in his 4 starts in a Boston uniform. Also note that Cashner allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning and compiled a 5.56 ERA and .319 BAA in his two starts versus KC last season. Now he gives the Royals another look at him in first start against them this season. As for Kansas City starter Jakob Junis, he is 3-7 with a 5.35 ERA in his dozen night starts this season. Junis got hammered by the Red Sox earlier this season and that was at home too. Now he faces them at Fenway Park where their lineup thrives. Look for the BoSox to build off yesterday's 7-5 win. The over is on a 29-11 run in Red Sox games and Kansas City is now 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games. The over is 8-1 in Cashner's home starts this season. The over is 17-8 in Royals games against AL East opponents this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-05-19 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The two teams with the longest current losing streaks in the majors are matched up in this one on Monday night so "something has to give". What I feel is going to "give" here is that the pitching staff of each of these teams is going to give up a ton of runs in this one. The Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season and ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Royals bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Considering that factor as well as the likelihood that both starting pitchers struggle here as they get pounded again and you can see why I love the over in this match-up despite the big number. In fact this total was high as a 12 before dropping to an 11.5 as of early this morning. Boston's Rick Porcello is having a nightmare season and has given up 6 runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Royals Mike Montgomery has a 6.34 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .340 against him on the year! Porcello had a 6.46 ERA in June and then followed that up with a 7.94 ERA in July! The over is 6-0 this season when Kansas City is revenging a 3 game sweep that had occurred at home against opponent. Indeed the Royals were swept by the Red Sox in a 3-game set in Kansas City two months ago! For the BoSox, the over is 21-11 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250 and their money line is within that price range Monday! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-04-19 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - When totals get this big (opened up at a 14) many over players get nervous and shy away while the under players come in thinking they've struck gold. Trust me, the opening number was absolutely justified and, that said, the early drop to a 13.5 is simply adding more value here. This is an early afternoon game at Coors Field and temperatures will be rising to the 90s with low humidity and that means the ball will carry extremely well. Couple that with the fact that a pair of struggling starting pitchers take the mound and you have the perfect recipe for a slugfest. The Giants Tyler Beede has a 6.23 ERA in his 10 appearances (9 starts) on the road in his career. The San Francisco right-hander has made only one appearance at Coors Field in his career and in just 2 innings he gave up 3 hits plus walked 3 so he was somewhat fortunate that he only allowed 2 earned runs in that outing. Don't be surprised if things get ugly for him in a hurry in this one. The Rockies have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 29 games at home. The Giants also have been scoring very well as they've been one of the hottest teams in the league for many weeks now. San Francisco has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 22 road games. The Giants have averaged scoring 9.4 runs per game in their last 8 contests at Coors Field. The SF lineup will take advantage of facing a struggling Kyle Freeland here. The Colorado lefty has been hit a .346 in his 8 home starts this season while going 1-4 and compiling an ugly 10.31 ERA. Freeland has given up 13 hits and walked 5 in 10 innings of work against the Giants this season. With the Rockies bullpen also having a very high ERA at home this season, you can see why I am expecting a wild game at Coors Field this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-04-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - I got burned with the run line in this match-up yesterday when the White Sox got an unearned run in the top of the 9th on a 2 out 2 strike RBI single. It happens but I'll come right back with the same play today. The Phillies went 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position but that won't happen again today against Reynaldo Lopez. Yes, the White Sox right-hander has had better numbers since the All Star break but his long-term numbers tell the full story and a regression to the mean is happening again. It started in his most recent start when he did not have good stuff but managed to escape with minimal damage. Lopez allowed 6 hits and walked 4 for 10 baserunners in just 5.1 innings. He was fortunate to allow only 2 earned runs in that start. He won't be so fortunate here as the Phillies bats explode against him. The White Sox won't be able to match the Phillies scoring here for multiple reasons. One is the fact that Chicago has lost 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of just TWO runs per game! The other reason the White Sox will struggle at the plate is that Drew Smyly has been dominating since coming to Philadelphia. Sometimes a change of scenery is all a hurler needs for success and Smyly needed out of Texas. He has displayed an excellent cutter since coming to Philly and has allowed just 1 earned run in 13 innings with the Phillies. Also, the Phils get closer Hector Neris back from his 3-game suspension today. 10* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Run Line -1.5 runs +125 |
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08-03-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #930 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 runs (-130) vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies need their ace in a big way on Saturday after an inexcusable loss last night To lose at home in 15 innings to a slumping White Sox team was beyond disgusting for this Philadelphia team. Suffice to say, look for Aaron Nola and a fired up Phillies lineup to get their revenge today. Part of the key to the value with this play is the fact that last night's game went 15 innings. That lengthy game put plenty of stress on both bullpens. That means that the length the starting pitchers can go in Saturday's game is going to play a key role in the outcome. That said, the Phillies edge on Saturday became even bigger after the way last night's game played out. Ross Detwiler starts for the White Sox and his ERA has consistently been above 6.00 since the 2015 season! He was used as a part-time starter in 2015 and 2016 and averaged about 5 innings per start. This season Detwiler has averaged only about 4 innings per starts. Compare this with long-term workhorse Nola. He consistently averages 6 innings per start but has been even stronger of late as he has averaged about 7 innings per start his last 8 starts. He has dominated with an ERA below 2.00 during this stretch and he offers huge edges over Detwiler given the above factors. Keep in mind, prior to last night's White Sox win they had been slumping badly while the Phillies were starting to heat up. That said, huge value here with Philly available in the -130 price range on the run line (laying the run and a half). Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs |
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08-03-19 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 4-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 10.5 and has dropped to a 10. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Orioles entered Friday's game on a 6-1 run to the over. Also, the Blue Jays entered yesterday's game on a 5-1 run to the over. Thomas Pannone has struggled on the road throughout his young MLB career. Last season he had a 6.20 ERA in his 7 road appearances (3 starts). This season the Blue Jays southpaw is 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA in his 11 appearances (4 starts) away from home. Yes he had a great home start against the Orioles last year but he got rocked in his lone start at Oriole Park at Camden Yards! Speaking of rough outings in Baltimore, Dylan Bundy has found road starts to be more to his liking than home starts! This season, Bundy is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA in his 10 home starts. By the way, last season Bundy went 2-15 with a 7.32 ERA in evening games. He was much better in day starts. Of course this game goes at 7 PM ET in Baltimore. Bundy was successful at Toronto in early July but now the Blue Jays get a quick second look and, again, the Orioles right-hander has been awful at home this season. Overall this year he has had one good month (May). Bundy has had an ERA of 5.68 or more in each of the other months this season! Also, prior to that good start against the Jays a month ago, note that Bundy's 3 most recent starts against Toronto (all in the 2nd half of last season) saw him allow 17 runs (14 earned) in just 15 and 2/3 innings. The Orioles bullpen ranks as the worst in the AL. The Blue Jays pen is respectable but will be asked to do too much here as Pannone's road struggles continue. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-02-19 | Royals v. Twins OVER 11 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 PM ET - After the Twins blew a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th yesterday at lowly Miami (and then lost the game in 12 innings), my first inclination was to go with Minnesota on the run line in today's game. However, I can not trust Martin Perez in this match-up. The Twins southpaw has given up 11 runs (8 earned) in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Royals. Both of those outings were in June so Kansas City has had some recent looks at the lefty and should enjoy success again here. The key to the over is the angry Minnesota lineup likely pummeling a struggling Glenn Sparkman in this one. The Royals right-hander got destroyed again in his most recent start (against the Indians) and faces another huge test here. Pitching at Minnesota is highly unlikely to go well for Sparkman as he is 0-4 with an 8.73 ERA in 9 games (6 starts) on the road this season. Opponents are hitting an incredible .347 against Sparkman when he is away from home this season. Of course other key factors here include the fact that the Twins had to use some extra bullpen with yesterday's loss going 12 innings. Also, the Royals bullpen has been hit at a .271 clip this season which ranks them dead last in the American League and 29th in the majors! You can see why I am expecting runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-02-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Run Line Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +105 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The White Sox are off a 4-0 shutout loss yesterday and have now lost 18 of their last 23 games! Chicago has seen 16 of those 18 losses come by two or more runs! The Phillies are a big favorite here on the money line but that is why the play here is the run line. Not only are the ChiSox slumping, their losses have been coming by a multiple run margin! With their 10-2 win yesterday, Philadelphia has won 8 of its past 12 games. The last 4 wins all have come by 2 or more runs and have averaged a margin of victory of 4.8 runs per win. The Phillies will start Jason Vargas in this one and he has a 3.53 ERA in his last 13 starts and was very strong for the Mets (2.93 ERA and .208 BAA) in his home starts for them. Ivan Nova starts for the White Sox and though he enters off a pair of strong starts, both of those were at home. Nova has been getting absolutely crushed on the road. In his last two starts away from home he has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings. In his last 3 road starts, Nova has given up 24 hits in 16 and 2/3 innings. Look for this one to be all Phillies as they have the edge in the starting pitching match-up plus the home field edge plus Philly is the much hotter team while the Sox have been ice cold for a month now. By the way, the White Sox also rank in the lower third of the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs |
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08-01-19 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Andrew Cashner allowed only 3 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees in his most recent start BUT he gave up 10 hits. The fact is that he has been hit hard in all 3 of his starts since coming to the Red Sox from the Orioles. Now he faces a Rays team that is heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-5 Tampa Bay win at Fenway Park, the Rays have now won 5 of 6 games and have scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their past 4 games. The Red Sox will be in bounce back mode after 3 straight home losses. Of course 3 straight defeats at Fenway Park is unusual for Boston but I don't think Cashner will be the stopper they need. That said, the Red Sox are going to have to do it with their bats Thursday and that is why I like the over so much. The Rays are starting southpaw Brandon McKay. He was recalled from AAA ball for this start and he got rocked in his most recent MLB start two weeks ago. McKay has pitched extremely well at the minor league level but, of course pitching at the MLB level is always a different challenge. McKay has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 MLB starts and certainly pitching at Fenway Park is not an easy place to get back on track. Boston has a .500 slugging percentage in home games this season which ranks them #1 in the American League. Also, the Red Sox rank 4th in the AL for slugging percentage against southpaw pitchers this season. The over is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 games and that includes 6 straight Red Sox games going over the total. More of the same expected on Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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07-31-19 | Twins -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - The Twins won a tight low-scoring ball game yesterday by a 2-1 count. That was the 15th time in 23 games in which the Marlins were held to 3 or less runs. That said, I certainly can't see Miami's lackluster lineup enjoying success against Jose Berrios. For one thing, this is an inter-league match-up and the Marlins are not familiar with him. For another thing, Berrios got back on track with 12 strikeouts against the White Sox. He has a 2.50 ERA over the months of June and July combined as he continues to impress. As for Sandy Alcantara, I don't mean any disrespect but he was an All-Star this season partially because the Marlins had to have a representative. His first half numbers show a 4-8 record and a 3.82 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Alcantara was truly not dominant to say the least and now he has fallen hard in the 2nd half of the season. Since the All Star break, Alcantara is win-less in 3 starts and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him. He is going to have his hands full with a Twins team which has a .514 slugging percentage in the month of July. Note that the impressive mark places Minnesota 2nd out of all 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage in the month of July. By the way, Miami has a slugging percentage of .373 this month and that places them dead last in the National League. This game has road rout written all over it! Twins are 14 games over .500 in road games this season while the Marlins are 13 games under .500 in home games this year. Of course that is why Minnesota is a big road favorite here on the money line. The value is on the run line where one can invest in the Twins at -1.5 runs at nearly even money! This is a great value as more than 75% of the Twins wins have been by 2 or more runs this season. Also, 75% of the Marlins losses this year have been by 2 or more runs. 10* MINNESOTA Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-31-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:10 ET - This total opened up at a 12.5 and has dropped to a 12 as of very early Wednesday morning. This is offering great line value on the over. I understand the move as Hyun-Jin Ryu and German Marquez both have some excellent numbers. The key is the venue for this one! Ryu has found Coors Field to be a nightmare and Marquez also consistently struggles here. Ryu entered this season having gone 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA in starts at Coors Field the 3 prior seasons. That's why it comes as no surprise that in his lone start here in 2019 he got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 innings. Like I said, this is a nightmare venue for Ryu and also note that he has admitted having some issues with command of his pitches in recent starts. He was able to get away with it in those outings but a lack of command in hitter-friendly Denver leads to another nightmare outing! As for the Rockies Marquez, he has been great in his last two starts but those were on the road. In his most recent home start Marquez got rocked and that continued a long-term trend! He has been hit at a .336 clip and has a 7.07 ERA in his home starts this season. A fluke? Absolutely not as Marquez also had a 4.74 ERA and a .284 BAA in his home starts last season. The Dodgers possess a very potent lineup and, considering the above factors, a back and forth slug-fest is likely on a hot afternoon in Denver. The hot weather means the ball is going to carry especially well in a day game at Coors Field. Los Angeles has a .479 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers and that is #1 in the National League this season. The Rockies have a .524 slugging percentage in home games this season and that is #1 in the majors! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-30-19 | Giants v. Phillies -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET - We're getting a very favorable line here to back the Phillies at home. It is certainly not a "mistake line" either. The reason Philadelphia is such a short favorite here is because the Giants have won 19 of their last 24 games. Indeed, San Francisco has been one of the hottest teams in the majors over the past 4 weeks. That said, why fade them here? It is all about the match-ups. The Giants have a .367 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them dead last in the majors - 30th out of 30 teams! The Phillies Drew Smyly got a wake up call with the Rangers as he had a horrible first half of the season and was sent down to the minors. Instead of hanging his head and falling to pieces, Smyly piled up the strikeouts at AAA with the San Antonio Missions in the Pacific Coast League. He then got picked up by the Phillies and was brilliant in striking out 8 in 6 innings against the Pirates and keeping them off balance throughout that game. Pittsburgh, like San Francisco, is another team that struggles against lefties and that is why I expect another strong start from Smyly here. As for the Phillies, they should pound Tyler Beede. The Giants right-hander has a 6.12 ERA in road outings at the MLB level. That is over 9 appearances (8 starts) so that is a big enough sample size to show he struggles when he is not at pitcher-friendly AT & T Park. Beede faces the Phillies at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park and the Phils are ranked 4th out of the 15 teams in the National League for runs scored per game at home. The Giants Beede got rocked in his most recent start against the Cubs and I expect similar results for him tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Yankees OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - Taylor Clarke is off a RARE quality start in his most recent outing. So is the "buy sign" now "on" for him? Of course not! That means that actually the fade is on here as he now faces the Bronx Bombers in their own home in his very next start after hosting AL East cellar-dwellars (Baltimore) in his prior appearance. Clarke has a 6.10 ERA in this, his rookie, season at the MLB level. In my mind this was not unexpected as Clarke compiled a 7.22 ERA at the AAA level of the minors in his 7 starts there this season! The good news for the Diamondbacks is they face another southpaw today. Arizona has a .496 slugging percentage against left-handers this season and that ranks them #1 in the National League on the season! JA Happ gets the start for the Yankees here and the lefty has given up 14 hits in his last 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Overall this season Happ has struggled at Yankee Stadium as he has a 5.76 ERA and has been hit at a .302 clip in the Bronx on the year! The Yankees have averaged 7.2 runs per game their last 13 games and their games continue flying over the total. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games. Also, both Arizona and the Yanks are continuing to give up runs in big batches. This one has the makings of a slugfest in the Bronx. As a road dog of +150 or more, the Diamondbacks are 10-3 to the over this season. The Yankees are 10-2 to the over this season when they are playing with road loss revenge and they lost both games at Arizona earlier this season. Payback time here means a ton of runs expected from the Bronx Bombers! Happ will be giving up plenty to the Dbacks as well. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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07-29-19 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and has dropped to a 9 (not unexpected) and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going against the line move and playing the over. Certainly I understand what the betting markets are looking at here as both David Keuchel and Patrick Corbin are solid southpaws with low ERA numbers on the season. What is getting underestimated is the potency of each of these two lineups and I feel this number is too low when that is given adequate consideration. Corbin recently faced the Braves and he gave up just 2 earned runs in 5 innings but he was fortunate as he allowed 8 hits! The Nats lefty won't be so fortunate in the rematch. As for Keuchel, he gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 8 hits in just 5 innings of work at Washington last month. As you can see, there is reason to believe both hurlers could get "touched up" in this one! Additionally, the Nationals 6.04 ERA ranks them as the worst in the majors. Atlanta enters this game having averaged scoring 9.3 runs per game in their 3-game series with the Phillies over the weekend! The Nationals have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 13 games. This will be the 24th game this season that the Braves have had against a left-handed starter this season. So far only 8 have resulted in an under. Look for that trend to continue here as this one surprises many and ends up with double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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07-28-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - After the first game of this series flew over the total, the second game stayed under despite Minnesota scoring 6 runs and the third game stayed under despite Chicago scoring 5 runs. The key to the over on Sunday is both teams should certainly contribute well to this total. Dylan Covey's return to the rotation for the White Sox saw him strike out 7 while issuing no walks in 6 innings. However, he still allowed 5 earned runs in that outing and this was against a bad Marlins team. Covey is now 6-27 with a 6.09 in his 58 MLB appearances including 42 starts. I expect him to get pounded here as the Twins bounce back after a miserable night at the plate where they scored only 1 run. The issue for Minnesota today will also be their starting pitcher as they hand the ball to Kyle Gibson. The veteran right-hander is 6-1 at home this season but note that he is just 3-3 in his 10 road starts and has been hit at a .282 clip when on the road - that's 60 points higher than when he is at home. Also, in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts against the White Sox, Gibson has allowed 12 runs (9 earned). Considering all of the above as well as the fact that these are two mediocre bullpens in this match-up, I expect runs early and often and throughout this series finale. Covey's starts have trended under this season but that makes no sense given his poor performance. That will fix itself now that he is back in the rotation and still struggling. Also, the over is 6-3 in Gibson's road starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-28-19 | Braves v. Phillies -129 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:05 ET - This line opened up as high as a -145 but has dropped down to as low as a -130 as of very early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion, I am going against the line move and taking advantage of the extra value being given to the home team with their ace on the mound. After the Braves won each of the first two games of this series in blowout fashion, many in the betting marketplace will feel they are unstoppable now. The key here is that a "stopper" steps on the mound for the Phillies in this one. Aaron Nola has allowed more than 1 earned run just ONCE in his last SEVEN starts! Included in this run was a great outing at home against the Braves when he shut them out and held them to just 4 hits in 8 innings in early July. Nola is a perfect 4-0 in his 8 day game starts this season. Part of what is keying the value here is that everyone is high on Kevin Gausman again after just one start. Certainly the Braves right-hander had an impressive line score in his win over Washington last Sunday. However, he actually gave up a lot of hard hit balls in that start and was quite fortunate. These are things you don't see in a typical boxscore but it was evident if you watched his outing. I look for the Phillies to hit him hard. Lets not forget that Gausman is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. Opponents are crushing him to the tune of a .316 batting average in his road outings this year. The Phillies very RARELY have been swept at home this season and I expect a huge response this afternoon with this pitching match-up also helping the cause! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-27-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - The Astros lost yesterday's game in the bottom of the 8th. I know the Cardinals have been hot but after Houston blew their 8th inning lead, I look for ace pitcher Gerrit Cole to restore order for the Astros. Of course the odds makers expect the same and that is why Houston is priced as a heavy money line favorite on the road in this one. As everyone knows by now, I never lay big prices. Where I see the value here is by laying the 1.5 runs with the Astros as I do expect a road rout in this one. Cole is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his last 11 starts. The Houston right-hander continues to pile up strikeouts. We're getting some value here because the Cardinals Daniel Ponce de Leon has a low ERA on the season. Keep in mind, Ponce de Leon has not thrown a lot of innings this season and we're now seeing signs some struggles are on the way. In his last two starts, both against a Pirates lineup not nearly as tough as this Astros lineup, the Cardinals right-hander has as many walks as strikeouts. Also, over those two outings Ponce de Leon allowed 11 hits in less than 7 innings of work. Including the 6 walks he has a 2.55 WHIP in his last two starts. Allowing about 5 baserunners for every two innings of work will get a hurler into trouble in no time against an angry Astros lineup that has plenty of pop. Cards took game one of this series but Houston gets payback in this one! 7 of the Astros last 8 wins have come by a margin of two or more runs. As for St Louis, 15 of the last 20 Cardinals losses have come by a margin of two or more runs. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs |
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07-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Chicago's Ivan Nova is off a rare strong start but he faced a bad Marlins team! In fact, against American League foes Nova has been charged with 4 or more runs in 7 straight starts! Look for him to struggle against a strong Twins team Saturday evening as Minnesota has won 4 of its last 6 games and scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in the process! As for the White Sox lineup, certainly they have struggled of late. However, facing Martin Perez is likely to bring out the best in them. Perez has allowed 11 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Also, Perez enters this outing with an 8.10 ERA in his July starts against American League foes. His stuff was very hittable in his most recent start and I see no reason to believe that will change here. The wind will be blowing out to left at a decent clip in this one and that will also aid the cause here as a slugfest ensues. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-26-19 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - Last night's game saw 31 runners left on base. Also, the teams combined to go 2 for 26 with runners in scoring position! Even though the game went 14 innings those are still ridiculously insane numbers that reflect futility in clutch situations. It is in situations like these that I like to follow up with an "over" the very next day. Even though the Indians have a strong bullpen the fact is that both teams used up a ton of bullpen yesterday and that is also noteworthy because the Royals bullpen is one of the worst in the majors and now they are short on pitching for tonight's game. Making the situation even worse for KC coming into tonight's game is the fact that Royals starter Jakob Junis may not last long. I know he had a good start against the Indians in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm throughout his career. Junis has a 5.87 ERA in his 4 starts against the Tribe this season. Also, Junis entered this season having compiled a 5.63 ERA in his 6 games (5 starts) versus Cleveland. As for Indians starter Zach Plesac, he was very successful against the Royals in his most recent start. However, earlier this month he faced KC at Kauffman Stadium and struggled. In fact, Plesac has ugly numbers in recent outings away from home. In Plesac's last two road starts he has been rocked for 10 runs (9 earned) in just 6 and 1/3 innings. After last night's unreal waste of scoring opportunities, these two teams make up for it tonight. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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07-26-19 | Braves v. Phillies +118 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 PM ET - The home team has won 14 of the last 17 meetings between these teams. That includes the Phillies having won 5 in a row at home over the Braves including a 3-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park earlier this season. Mike Soroka has been great for the Braves this season but he has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 3 outings including getting pounded by the Phillies. As for Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta, he has actually been pitching better since the announcement that he has a bone spur in his right elbow. It is almost as if it has made him focus even more on the location of his pitches and the results have been strong. No he is not going to pile up the strikeouts but he does do a good job of inducing weaker contact through the air or getting hitters to keep the ball on the ground. Look for that to continue here for Arrieta against a slumping Braves team. Atlanta has lost 6 of its last 8 games. Also, the highly regarded Braves lineup has actually been held to 4 or less runs in 12 of its last 15 games! As for the Phillies, they have won 5 of their last 6 games. Both teams were off yesterday and Philly is 9-3 this season after a day off while Atlanta is a poor 3-11 this season when playing after an off day! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-25-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - The last 3 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total and yes, I am aware that the last two games in this streak were both played in that crazy London series where the ball park played out like a band box with plenty of homers. However, based on this pitching match-up as well as favorable weather expected at hitter-friendly Fenway Park Thursday, I expect another wild, high-scoring game between these huge rivals. The Yankees have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 7 games against Boston. The Red Sox have averaged 7.4 runs per game in their last 14 games as a host to the Bronx Bombers. As for the pitching match-up here, Masahiro Tanaka has made 6 starts against the Red Sox since the beginning of last season and he has compiled an 8.39 ERA in those outings. Rick Porcello has faced the Yankees twice this season and he has a 19.80 ERA in those two outings. Also, Porcello enters this start with a horrible 10.57 ERA in his last 5 starts. The over is a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Tanaka enters this start with with the over having gone 4-1 in his last 5 starts. The Yankees are off another wild 10-7 win yesterday and the over is now a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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07-25-19 | Rockies +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 8-7 | Win | 135 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (+135) @ Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - I look for Jeff Hoffman to come up with a big start here as he has the "stuff" in terms of his pitches to be successful. Hoffman will be highly motivated as he gets another chance in the rotation after being demoted a month ago. One of the keys helping him in this match-up is that the Nationals haven't exactly been knocking the cover off the ball of late. This is particularly true when off a win. Washington won yesterday's second game of the double-header 2-0 and have now averaged just 2.3 runs per game the last 6 times they have entered a contest off a win. Additionally, I know Max Scherzer is a great pitcher but the Nats right-hander is returning from a back injury. After the time off he may not be as sharp as usual. Also, Scherzer may not pitch as deep as usual in this game. That means the bullpens could play a role here. Don't be fooled by the Rockies overall bullpen numbers as those are impacted by where they play their home games. In fact, Colorado's bullpen has a 3.59 ERA in road games this season. By comparison, the Washington bullpen has a 6.15 ERA in home games this season. You can clearly see which team holds the edge in that department. As for the Rockies quiet sticks so far in this series, they entered this series having scored 13 runs in the final two games of their series in the Bronx and I am expect them to get back on track in the finale of this series. That said, I like the "plus plus" value here as we get the Rockies on the run line +1.5 runs and in the +135 range price-wise. 10* COLORADO Run Line +1.5 runs |
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07-24-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:40 ET - John Means was the lone Orioles representative at the All Star game and certainly he is a solid pitcher overall. However, the lefty is facing a Diamondbacks team that ranks #1 in the National League for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season! Also, though Means is off a strong start versus Boston, he only registered one strikeout in six innings. Prior to that one Means gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in a start against Tampa Bay that saw him allow 3 homers. I would not be surprised to see him struggle some in this start at Arizona given how well they've hit southpaws this season. Also, it is certainly noteworthy that he has averaged only 5.5 innings per start this year. That means we should see a good amount of Orioles bullpen in this one and their team ERA for the bullpen ranks dead last in the American League. As for Diamondbacks starter Taylor Clarke, he had a 7.22 ERA in his 7 AAA starts this year in the minors. That said, it should not come as a surprise that he has mostly struggled at the MLB level and has a 6.50 ERA in his 11 appearances (10 starts) with the Dbacks. I know that the Orioles season record is ugly of course but they have been swinging the bats much better of late. In fact, Baltimore ranks #2 out of all 30 teams with a .571 slugging percentage the last 7 days. The Orioles have now won 4 of their last 6 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in the process. You can see why I am expecting plenty of runs from both teams in this one. Also, Clarke has averaged just 3 and 2/3 innings per start his last 8 starts and that means the Diamondbacks pen (a mediocre one) will be asked to do too much in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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07-24-19 | Phillies -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 104 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phllies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - After last night's marathon 15-inning win, the Phillies surge continues while the Tigers struggles continue. Incredibly, Detroit is now 1-15 this season when they are a home dog in a range of +125 to +175. Of course I am not going to lay the big price with the Phillies on the money line though. I don't lay big prices. Where I feel we have great value here is that we can take Philadelphia on the run line (-1.5 runs) at even money (or even plus money in some spots) as of early Wednesday morning. The Tigers went 5-20 in June and also are now 3-14 in the month of July. That means Detroit has now lost 34 of their last 42 games! The Tigers have Jordan Zimmermann on the mound for this one. He is having a nightmare month. In July, Zimmermann is 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA in his 3 starts. The right-hander has allowed 6 or more earned runs in each start despite never making it out of the 5th inning. The Phillies start Vince Velasquez here and certainly he has been inconsistent this season. However, he has good stuff and has struck out 25 in his last 21 and 1/3 innings. Historically Velasquez has proven capable of dominating weaker lineups and certainly the downtrodden Tigers fall into that category. Look for the Phillies to win this one in a road rout. The Phils have won 4 of their last 5 and momentum is starting to build again for the Phillies. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-23-19 | Royals v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #974 Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:20 ET - The Royals only have 15 road wins this season. No team in baseball has fewer road wins than Kansas City! Also, KC has 64 total losses on the season and 47 of them have come by 2 or more runs. Of the Braves 60 wins this season 42 have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Yes, Atlanta is a huge favorite on the money line in this game and I would never lay that price. However, there is great value with the Braves on the run line. At -1.5 runs, Atlanta is available at a pick'em price. As you can see, per the above an Atlanta win is likely and the odds also strongly favor that said win comes by 2 or more runs. Both teams are starting southpaws in this game and that also holds significance here. Kansas City is dead last in the AL for slugging percentage against lefties. As for the Braves, they rank a solid 3rd in the NL for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. This situation strongly favors the Braves with Dallas Keuchel over the Royals with Danny Duffy. Keuchel fell apart in the 6th inning against Milwaukee in his most recent start but, previous to that, the Braves southpaw allowed 2 or less runs while going at least 7 innings in each of his 3 prior games. As for the Royals Duffy, he has a 6.75 ERA in his past two starts and he faced a pair of teams not nearly as strong as the NL East leading Braves. Also, Duffy will be making his first road start this month and he has a 6.88 ERA in his last 3 starts away from home. All signs are pointing to a home blowout in this one as the Braves also have the stronger bullpen. 10* ATLANTA Run Line -1.5 runs |
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07-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 as of very early game day morning. This is offering superb line value with the over. Boston's Chris Sale is off a great start versus the Blue Jays. However, in his 4 prior starts he allowed 19 runs (18 earned) on 29 hits (including 6 homers) in 21 and 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, we're dealing with a very low total here considering this an American League match-up. No pitchers batting in this one and last night both teams enjoyed success against the opposing bullpens as well. Tampa Bay's bullpen has great numbers on the season but last night's 9-4 loss was the 5th time in the last 7 games that the Rays allowed 5 or more runs. The Red Sox bullpen has been a major disappointment this season and they now have a 4.60 ERA on the year which ranks them in the bottom half of the majors. The Boston sticks have averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game in their last 20 road games. Again, this total is only 7.5 so you can really see the value as the Red Sox also have hitters whom have enjoyed plenty of success against the Rays Yonny Chirinos. Boston is the #1 hitting team in the majors against right-handed pitching this season. Also, Chirinos did get the better of the Red Sox at Fenway Park earlier this season and that means it is payback time for a red hot Boston lineup. I respect both these starting pitchers but Sale has averaged only 5 and 1/3 innings in his last 5 starts and Chirinos has pitched 6 or less innings in 13 of his last 14 starts so we're likely to see substantial bullpen work in this one too. The Rays pen couldn't get the Red Sox to hit balls on the ground last night and that is an issue. Look for another big night for the sticks at Tropicana Field. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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07-22-19 | Marlins v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 8:10 ET - The Marlins are off a shutout loss yesterday and it got ugly as their beleaguered bullpen faltered again in the 9-0 defeat. Miami has one of the worst bullpens in the majors and the White Sox bullpen is truly not much better. Considering that, as well as the fact that both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here, I am looking for double digits in runs scored in this one. Chicago's Ivan Nova is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in his last two starts. Miami's Trevor Richards is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts. Richards has been struggling for 4 straight starts as he has allowed 16 earned runs in 20 innings during this span. The White Sox bats will be ready to get going at home after struggling in the final two games of their series at Tropicana Field. Chicago had averaged a dozen hits per game in their 3 games previous to struggling and scoring just 2 runs in each of the weekend games at Tampa. In terms of production at home, the White Sox sticks have averaged 10 hits per game in their last 11 games as a host. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Marlins road games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125. The over is 3-1 in Chicago's games against NL East opponents this season. Also, in the 2nd half of this season, the over is 3-1 in White Sox games against teams with a losing record. While neither lineup is overly imposing, it is sub-par pitching that should key an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-22-19 | Red Sox -107 v. Rays | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - IMPORTANT: Select ACTION rather than listed pitchers when making this wager. The expected starting pitching match-up is Eduardo Rodriguez for the Red Sox and Jalen Beeks for the Rays but Tampa Bay is known for switching things up because they use "openers" as starters from time to time. No matter what happens with the starting pitching match-up here Beeks is expected to get the bulk of the innings for TB in this one and I expect him to get rocked by an angry Boston team. The Red Sox got shutout 5-0 at lowly Baltimore yesterday and now somebody has to pay the price for that ugly loss. That somebody will be the Rays and yet, because this game is at Tropicana Field, we've got a very favorable line to work with. Keep in mind Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching very well and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 4 starts. He did not face a bunch of lowly opponents either as two of those starts were against the Yankees and Dodgers. Rodriguez was particularly dominant against LA as he struck out 10 in 7 innings. Yes he has had struggles at Tampa Bay in the past but in typical contrarian fashion I am going with him here. The fact is that his current form is exceptional. Also, Rodriguez should hold the edge over a slumping Rays lineup. Yes they scored 4 runs yesterday but it all came on one swing of the bat (a grand slam). Other than that, TB sticks couldn't produce another run yesterday and the Rays have scored an average of just 2.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. Tampa's Beeks has been worse at home and in night games this season. He also had a 5.09 ERA in night games last season too. Unlike the Rays sticks, the Boston sticks have been hot. Prior to yesterday's shutout loss, the Red Sox had averaged 7.7 runs per game in their 18 previous road games. You can see why I am forecasting a road rout here regardless of which starting pitchers are used. 10* BOSTON |
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07-21-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +139 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #964 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks (+) vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - I have plenty of respect for the Brewers Brandon Woodruff but this is too much home dog value to pass up on with Alex Young and Arizona. The Diamondbacks let last night's game slip away and I expect them to respond this afternoon. Young is a very tough lefty and the Milwaukee lineup has no experience against the rookie southpaw. Young is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in 4 games (3 starts) at the MLB level and opponents are hitting just .100 against him. Also, having a southpaw on the mound against the Brewers best hitter, Christian Yelich, is also a big edge. As for Milwaukee's Woodruff, he had a great May but, keep in mind he had a 5.47 ERA in April and a 4.78 ERA in June. He is 9-0 at home this season but 2-3 on the road and this looks like the perfect spot to fade him. Prior to last night's win for the Brewers, they were 5-9 in their last 14 games while the Diamondbacks entered last night's game 8-2 in their last 10 home games. Milwaukee is 2-6 this season as a road favorite of -125 to -175 while Arizona is 3-1 this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Considering the Brewers have struggled on the road quite often this season, the value is huge here with the Diamondbacks as a home dog. This is especially true when you consider how well Young has been pitching. 10* ARIZONA |
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07-21-19 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 2:10 ET - The Astros Lance Lynn has a low ERA versus the Astros this season but, keep in mind, he did allow 3 homers in his lone start at Houston this season. Also, though Lynn has a 3.15 ERA this month he has been hit at a .277 clip and all 3 of those starts were at home. This will be just the second road start for Lynn since mid-June! I expect the Astros to enjoy success at the plate here as this is their third shot at Lynn this season. Though he had success against them on July 11th, Lynn's other two starts this month saw him allow 7 earned runs on 17 hits in 13 innings. The issue for Houston today won't be their lineup, it will be the fact that their starting rotation has been impacted by injury. The Astros are expected to give Rogelio Armenteros his first-ever MLB start. The rookie right-hander has had some success in his first 3 MLB appearances out of the bullpen. However, lets not forget that Armenteros went 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA and .286 BAA at AAA Round Rock this season. Though one can say that is the Pacific Coast League and ERAs do tend to be higher than normal there, it does not change the fact that it is AAA hitters he is facing and plus Armenteros had much better numbers in the very same league last season. Don't be surprised if the Rangers give him a rough intro to what it is like to start at the MLB level and, of course, he'll face the extra pressure of trying to perform well for the home fans here. The first two games of this series stayed under the total but Texas entered this series on a 10-3 run to the over. Also the Astros and Rangers entered this series having gone 5-1 to the over in their 6 most recent meetings. With this total dropping from a 9.5 to a 9 we have even more value in this one. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-20-19 | Phillies +117 v. Pirates | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Diamond Club Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - Zach Eflin has had a pair of rough starts in the month of July but lets not forget he has faced two of the top teams in the majors. Eflin was up against the Braves and Dodgers but now faces a sub-.500 Pirates team. Even at home this season Pittsburgh is only a .500 team and I like the underdog price here with a Philadelphia team that is building up strong momentum. The Phillies have now won 3 of their last 4 games after yesterday's 6-1 win over the Pirates. Also, the run has included huge comeback wins over the league-best Dodgers so the Philly clubhouse is simply a much different atmosphere than it was before this strong surge. Also, Eflin had a 3.34 ERA entering July so he is a much better pitcher than the way he is being priced here. Pittsburgh is starting Joe Musgrove in this one and the right-hander has had some better starts in recent weeks but he had a 4.87 ERA through mid-June. Also he has gone 4-7 in his 15 home starts this season. I am grabbing the underdog value with the surging Phillies and fading a Pirates team that is slumping and has now lost 6 of their past 7 games. Pittsburgh has scored an average of only 2.7 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. The Phillies, on the other hand, have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 4. Hot versus not and an underdog price too. I'll take it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-20-19 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 11.5 | Top | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Tom Eshelman gets the start for the Orioles. He has limited MLB action and is likely to get crushed by a Red Sox lineup that is very powerful and will be fully focused after yesterday's embarrassing loss. This total is up near a dozen runs and many will look at this as being too high so, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the over and telling you this one should fly over the total. Eshelman truly has only had ONE good season in the minors. That was 2017. He certainly did not impress in 2015 or 2016. As for 2018 and 2019 he is a combined 4-18 with a 5.38 ERA. Keep in mind this is against MINOR league hitters and now he faces the Red Sox off an embarrassing loss. Eshelman is destined to get pounded but I also expect Boston's Rick Porcello to get pounded as well and that is why the play here is the over. The Orioles tend to score better when at home and have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their last 10 at Camden Yards. They'll take advantage of Porcello. The BoSox right-hander has a 5.97 ERA in road games this season and has been hit at a .297 clip away from home. Since the start of the 2017 season he has allowed 81 homers! Porcello had a 6.46 ERA last month and has a 7.71 ERA so far this month. As you can see he is not exactly improving as the season has gone on. Also, the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack while the Orioles bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the American League. A slugfest is likely here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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07-19-19 | Phillies -101 v. Pirates | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Jake Arrieta is pitching through an injury (bone spur in elbow) but he is a veteran and knows how to pitch. In other words, even though he lost velocity after the third inning in his last start he still managed to mix up his pitches and keep a potent Nationals lineup off balance. Based on location of pitches and timing of pitches Arrieta had Washington hitting most everything on the ground and he allowed just 1 earned run in a solid 5 innings. I look for him to do the same against the Pirates Friday. A wounded Arrieta still rates a big edge over a healthy Jordan Lyles. The Pittsburgh right-hander has been struggling for an extended stretch as Lyles has a 10.13 ERA over his last 7 starts. Now he faces a Phillies lineup whose confidence is on the rise after they just went toe to toe with a Dodgers team that many rank as the best team in baseball. Philadelphia took 2 of the final 3 games by getting their big bats going and with a "never say die" attitude to earn the series split with Los Angeles. They should plenty of damage against a struggling Lyles here. Last season Arrieta had a 1.29 ERA against the Pirates and struck out 18 in 14 innings of work spanning his two starts. Lyles history against the Phillies is more dated but he has a 6.14 ERA in his last two starts against them. Philadelphia went 6-1 against the Pirates last season. Pittsburgh enters this game having lost 5 of their past 6 games. The Pirates are 9-15 this season when they enter a contest after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. The Phillies are 7-3 in Arrieta's last 10 starts. Also, in the second half of this season, the Phils have won 3 of 4 games against teams with a losing record and they are offering great line value in this spot at a pick'em price against the slumping Pirates. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-19-19 | Rockies v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - No team in MLB has scored more runs against left-handed pitching than the Rockies. Look for Colorado to get to JA Happ early and often in this one. Happ has been hit at a .294 clip in home games this season and has a 5.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Taking a look at the other side of this match-up, I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees do not have great numbers against left-handed pitching this season but they are facing a struggling southpaw in this one. The Rockies are starting Kyle Freeland and the lefty has gone 2-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his 13 starts this season. He has been particularly poor in night games as he is 1-5 with a 7.99 ERA in evening outings and it is going to be hot and steamy in the Bronx tonight. The Rockies enter this game having allowed an average of 11 runs per game in their last 6 games. Colorado did score 8 or more runs in 3 of those 6 games. The Yankees are coming off 3 straight wins against the Rays after losing the opener of a 4-game series. The Yanks averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. This is a big total posted on this game but it is absolutely justified as these are two potent lineups and two starting pitchers likely to get rocked. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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07-18-19 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - Hot and steamy evening at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. It is the ideal weather for the ball to be jumping off the bats in Cincinnati and, based on this pitching match-up. we should see plenty of that in this one. Dakota Hudson starts for the Cardinals and he has had decent success against the Reds in his career but this will be his first ever start at Cincinnati! As for the Reds Tanner Roark, he had a decent start against the Cards earlier this season but that was preceded by a rough history against St Louis. Roark allowed 19 earned runs in 24 innings in his 5 prior starts against the Cardinals. The fact that Roark's April start against STL stayed under the total was very unusual as NONE of Roark's first 5 career starts against the Cards resulted in an under. As for the Cardinals, they are 14-8 to the over this season when they are a road dog in a range of +100 to +150. The Reds are 4-1 to the over this season when they enter a game off back to back losses to a division rival. After losing 2 straight to the Cubs, Cincinnati's bats get back on track here but Roark gives up plenty too in what should be a back and forth high-scoring affair. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-18-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +102 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 102 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 12:35 ET - The Phillies have Aaron Nola on the mound and that is a key to this selection. Nola has been on a tear of late. He has allowed a total of just 3 earned runs in his last 5 starts. Also, The Philadelphia right-hander has held the Dodgers to an average of just 2 earned runs per start in his 3 starts against them in his career. Ross Stripling starts for the Dodgers here and he has allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts against the Phillies in his career. Also, he got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his most recent start against them. The Phillies lost Nola's most recent start but that was on a 2 out 2 run bomb in the top of the 9th. Prior to that the Phils had won 10 of his last 13 starts and they get back into the win column here with him on the mound. The past 2 and 1/2 months with Nola on the mound, the Phillies have lost back to back games only once! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-17-19 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and of course the odds makers are well aware of the fact that the Indians Mike Clevinger has pitched very well in his last two starts and could be getting back on track finally. Of course the market moved this total down to a 9 but I feel the odds makers had it right. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the market move. For one thing, the Tigers lineup does have plenty of familiarity with Clevinger and lets not forget that Detroit had scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their 7 road games prior to getting shutout last night. I expect the Tigers lineup to bounce back here. The issue for Detroit is they can't stop teams from scoring and that won't change with Spencer Turnbull on the mound. Keep in mind, behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. As for Turnbull's likelihood of success on the mound tonight it ranges between slim and none. The Detroit right-hander has given up 7 runs (6 earned) in just 8 innings of work in his last two road starts. Turnbull has as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts away from home. Also, Turnbull is 0-3 with 11 earned runs allowed on 24 hits allowed in the 14 innings spanning his 3 career starts against the Indians. The over, prior to the shutout last night for the Tigers, was 10-2-1 in their previous 13 road games! The over is 8-2 this season when the Indians are off a shutout win. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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07-16-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - No team in the American League has scored more runs at home than Texas. No team in the National League has a higher slugging percentage on the road than Arizona. The point is that both these teams can be expected to do plenty of damage here. I know that Alex Young has pitched very well for the Diamondbacks but his MLB action has been limited. He has made 3 starts and one was at home and the other two were both at pitcher friendly venues. Young is making his first ever "tough venue" road start and I expect the southpaw to finally come back down to earth after his surprising success at the MLB level. Keep in mind, Young had a combined 6.00 ERA in 40 appearances (20 starts) at the AAA level of the minors before his call up this season. Both last year and this year at the AAA level were not impressive for the young left-hander. As for Rangers starter Lance Lynn, he has pitched well this season but he has given up 15 hits in 14 innings in his two July starts - both at home. Also, in his final home start of June he allowed 5 earned runs in 7 innings. Even though this is an interleague game, the Diamondbacks did face Lynn earlier this season. They will fare much better now that they're seeing him for a 2nd time this season. The over is 23-13 this season when Arizona is a road underdog. Also, in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the Diamondbacks are 3-1 to the over. Texas is 12-6 to the over this season when off a loss by a margin of 4 or more runs. The Rangers are also 8-3 to the over their last 11 games and 10-4 to the over in Tuesday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 10 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - The Brewers are one of the top slugging teams in the National League when at home. The Braves are one of the top slugging teams in the National League when facing right-handed pitching. Atlanta will take advantage of a struggling Adrian Houser in this one. Houser has been exceptional out of the bullpen this season but he has struggled in the starting role. Milwaukee is sticking with him, for now, but the fact is some guys never get right in this role and are better suited for bullpen duty. Note that Houser is now 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA in his 5 starts this season! Facing one of the hottest teams in the majors is unlikely to help matters for the struggling Houser. Speaking of struggling, the Braves Max Fried got rocked in each of his last two starts before the All Star break. Though he was successful against the Brewers earlier this season, that start was at Atlanta. When Fried faced Milwaukee at Miller Park last season he gave up 4 earned runs in a start that lasted only 3 innings. The over is 11-5-2 in Fried's starts this season. The over is 2-0 in Houser's last two starts. The Brewers are 5-0-1 to the over in their last 6 games. The over is 5-2 this season when Atlanta enters a game on a winning streak of 4 or more consecutive games. After getting shutout in their first game this month, the Braves have scored an average of 6 runs per game since then. Milwaukee has averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 6 games but they've given up an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch as their bullpen has faltered. More of the same likely here, especially considering that Houser is unlikely to work deep into this game. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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07-14-19 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - The Mariners Yusei Kikuchi has struggled this season and the Angels sticks have certainly been a part of that as they have caused plenty of damage when facing the southpaw. Kikuchi has faced the Angels three times and has a 12.34 ERA with 5 homers allowed in less than a dozen innings spanning those three outings. Los Angeles enters this game having piled up 22 runs in the first two games of this series and more of the same expected Sunday given this pitching match-up. Yes the Seattle bats have been held in check so far in this series but that should change today. The Mariners solid lineup will take advantage of facing a rookie hurler they've already seen twice this season. Overall, LA rookie Jose Suarez is struggling. That means it is particularly bad news when a struggling rookie has to face a potent lineup for the 3rd time already in the same season. The point is that the Mariners are very familiar with him and they can do plenty of damage against him. Note that the over is 9-1 in Kikuchi's ten road starts this season. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 (one push) in the six starts that Suarez has made this season. The over is also 8-2-1 in the last 11 games between these teams as their match-ups continue to turn into slugfests. Certainly this match-up has all the right ingredients for the slugging ways to continue. Sometimes key players rest on a Sunday but, with both teams having an off day tomorrow, that should not be the case here and both lineups should end up being stacked! 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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07-13-19 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 14 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - This total may seem absurd with how big it is but it is still not big enough. This one opened up at 13 and is now a 14 as of very early game day morning. Don't let the large number scare you. Tanner Roark has decent career numbers against the Rockies but the Reds right-hander made only one career start at Coors Field. Roark was very fortunate in that outing as he allowed 5 hits and plus walked 4 batters in that 5-inning effort and yet he managed to hold Colorado to 2 runs. He won't be so fortunate here. Hitting conditions will be ideal tonight in Denver and the ball is going to be jumping off the bats. Of course that is bad news for the Rockies starting pitcher tonight too. Kyle Freeland gets the start and he is having a hellish season. The Colorado southpaw is 2-6 with a 7.13 ERA. That is why the Rockies sent him to the minors to "get right" and he is now being called back up after his stint there. However, Freeland certainly still does NOT look right. The Colorado southpaw went 0-4 with an 8.80 ERA in his 6 starts with Albuquerque in the minors. He is likely to get rocked here. After last night's 3-2 final it may seem tough to expect 15 runs here but I see that and much more on the horizon in a slugfest tonight. The Rockies bullpen has a 6.16 ERA in home games this season. The Reds bullpen has been decent this season but they were welcomed to Coors Field last night by allowing 2 earned runs in just 1 inning and blowing the game. I expect the Cincinnati bullpen to be called upon much earlier in this one and the results will again be ugly for them. That said, this one has the makings of runs early, often, and throughout the contest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-12-19 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - After getting shutout in last night's game the Astros will respond tonight. After scoring only 1 run after the 1st inning last night, the Rangers bats also are going to surprise some people tonight with more consistent offensive production. Yes, Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher and the Astros right-hander has been on fire of late. However, this will be just his 2nd road start since June 2nd. In other words, he has been dominating at home but this is a pitcher whom has struggled in Arlington. In his last 3 starts at Globe Life Park, Cole has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) in 15 and 1/3 innings. You read that right...Cole has allowed about a run per inning the last 3 times he has faced Texas in their park. As for run support here, Cole should receive plenty of it. Jesse Chavez is coming back down to earth after some surprising early success in the starters role. In his last two outings Chavez has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings of work and now he faces an angry Astros lineup (after last night's shutout loss) that is loaded with hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Prior to last night's game totaling just 5 runs, 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams had gone over the total. Those 4 overs averaged 17 runs per game! I am not saying this one will hit 17 but I am saying it gets to double figures and this game opened up at a 10.5 but has dropped to a 9.5 as of early Friday morning. I am all over the value being offered with this one after the line move. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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07-11-19 | Astros -120 v. Rangers | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Texans Money Line (-) @ Texas Rangers @ 8:05 ET - The public sees Framber Valdez with an ugly ERA as a starter this season. The sharps are the reason this line has moved Houston's way. The sharps are seeing the same thing I am seeing. Valdez is a much better pitcher than what his ERA as a starter would lead you to believe. This is a guy whom has held MLB hitters to a paltry .217 batting average in his 26 games (9 starts) in his MLB career. It is also important to note that he is a southpaw and the Rangers ugly .232 batting average against left-handed pitching this season has them tied with the light-hitting Indians for DEAD LAST in the majors! Texas is likely to struggle at the plate in this one. Conversely, though Lance Lynn has good overall numbers this season he gave up 3 homers in his start against the Astros two months ago. Lynn was fortunate that all 3 of the long balls came with no one on base and I like the fact that Houston is getting another quick look at him. There is a reason that this line opened up at a pick and jumped up from there to having Houston as a road favorite in the -120 range in this one. That reason is the sharps are onto this one. Look for the Astros to roll. Note that Houston enters this game having won 7 of their last 8 games. Texas enters this game having lost 6 of their last 8 games. Also, the Astros swept the Rangers in 4 games when they met most recently (mid-May). Houston is a long-term 70-32 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. Texas has revenge here from their most recent game against the Astros but the Rangers are actually a poor 1-4 this season when revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more. 10* HOUSTON |
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07-07-19 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 2:10 ET - When the Cubs were up 5-1 in the top of the 5th in yesterday's game and still had bases loaded and nobody out but yet didn't score a single run, I had a bad feeling that would burn us. Sure enough my hot streak with top totals ended because the game fell a half run short. We've had some good breaks along the way too and you have to take the bad with the good. So we move forward and when I saw the pitching match-up for Sunday (and after getting burned Saturday), I knew I would be coming right back with the over in the Chicago match-up again. Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs and he is 3-5 with a 5.53 ERA in his 8 road starts this season. Ivan Nova starts for the White Sox and he is 0-4 with an 8.31 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. The over is 9-4 in Cubs inter-league games this season. The over is 12-6 this season when the White Sox are a home dog of +125 or more. Payback time here as this one should take care of business for us after Saturday's frustrating finish. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-06-19 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester has been great this season in home games but, even though this game is being played in Chicago, it is on the south side at Guaranteed Rate Field. Note that Lester has a 5.67 ERA away from home this season. A cool front is blowing through Chicago today and that will keep temperatures very comfortable in the low 70s and with a solid north wind blowing out toward right. Some of the left-handed bats particularly of the Cubs could take advantage of that as they face the right-hander Lucas Giolito. While it is true that Giolioto has great numbers on the season, the Cubs got to him for 3 homers when they faced him last month. In that outing Giolito allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. Giolito also faced the Cubs in September here on the south side and that start did not go particularly well either. In fact, Giolito has now allowed a total of 11 earned runs in his last two starts against the Cubs. Coincidentally, Lester happened to be matched up with Giolito in each of those two starts. Though Lester allowed a total of only 5 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings, the lefty did give up 15 hits so he was very fortunate to say the least. The White Sox won't let him off the hook this time as his road struggles continue this season. The over is 3-0 in Lester's last 3 starts against the White Sox. Also, the over is 6-1 in Lester's road starts this season. The Cubs are 4-1 to the over their last 5 games. The White Sox are 13-7 to the over their last 20 games. The Cubs are 9-3 to the over in inter-league games this season. The White Sox are 14-8 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-05-19 | Royals v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Royals are ranked in the bottom third of the majors for bullpen ERA. The Nationals relief corps is even worse as they are ranked dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA. This could prove to be a key factor early this evening in DC because it is unlikely that either one of these starting pitchers will last long. Kansas City is starting Brad Keller and he has been solid at home this season but the road has been a different story. Away from home, Keller is 2-6 with a 5.08 ERA in his 7 road starts. Opponents are hitting .281 against Keller when he is away from home. Last season, his rookie campaign, Keller also got hit at a .282 clip so there is consistency in terms of his performances away from home. The Nationals should jump all over him but their problem is that they also have an inexperienced hurler on the mound whom is still trying to find his way at the MLB level. Austin Voth gets the start here and he is off a poor start at Detroit. Keep in mind the Tigers are the lowest scoring team in the majors. Granted the Royals aren't a whole lot better but KC does enter this game having scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. All 5 of those games went over the total. As for the Nationals, they have a .458 slugging percentage in home games this season and that ranks them in the top third of teams in the majors! The Nats have won 13 of their last 16 games and have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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07-04-19 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 5:10 ET - The Yankees won again (5-1) yesterday and they continue red hot at the plate as they again reached double digits in hits. The Yankees have now won 14 of their past 16 games and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game during this hot streak! The Rays aren't known for their hitting prowess but I like their chances against an inconsistent JA Happ. Also, Tampa Bay lost 9-6 yesterday but that marked the 11th time in 13 games that the Rays have scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, with today's total posted at a 9, we only need each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee us of a non-losing ticket as the game would have to end at least 5-4. The fact is I am expecting much more than that here in terms of runs scored. The Rays have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their last 5 games and Happ has a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has continually been hit hard. Tampa Bay is starting Yonny Chirinos in this one. The TB right-hander has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. Also, in his two starts against the Yankees he has allowed 3 earned runs each time. Having just seen him a couple of weeks ago, the Yanks lineup is likely to enjoy even more success in the rematch today. Happ only allowed 2 earned runs to the Rays when he faced them two weeks ago but he did allow 7 hits in 5 innings and that was in the Bronx. In 2 of his last 3 starts at Tropicana Field he has been roughed up and that is where today's start is. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. New York is off back to back unders in their IL series with the Mets but the Yankees entered that series on a 15-5 run to the over and their sticks have remained hot. The over is 25-10 in Yanks road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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07-03-19 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - The lowest scoring game on the board yesterday was this match-up which ended up a 2-0 Phillies win thanks to a brilliant start from Aaron Nola. After that pitchers duel now we've got the perfect set up for a slugfest on Wednesday as Nick Pivetta squares off with Bryse Wilson. Philadelphia's Pivetta has an ugly 7.13 ERA over his last 3 starts and he has allowed 7 homers during this stretch. As for Atlanta's Wilson, he has an 8.31 ERA in limited action this season. He is very early in his MLB career but already Wilson has proven to struggle at this level. In 6 games (3 starts) the Braves right-hander has been been hit at a .306 clip at the MLB level. The Phillies, prior to scoring just 2 runs yesterday, had averaged 7.4 runs per game in their 7 prior games. The Braves, prior to being shutout yesterday, had won 17 of their last 23 games and averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game. The over is 3-0 in Pivetta's last 3 starts against the Braves and he got crushed in each of the last two. Wilson got crushed in his starts versus the Phillies earlier this season and the over is perfect in his starts this season. The Braves are 22-12 this season as a favorite of -125 to -175. In Braves home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is 5-2 this season. Philadelphia, prior to yesterday's shutout, had allowed 5 or more runs in 12 of their past 16 games! Atlanta, prior to getting a sharp start from Dallas Keuchel yesterday, had allowed 8 or more runs in 4 of their past 9 games. A slugfest on tap in this one. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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07-02-19 | Astros v. Rockies OVER 13 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Jose Urquidy will be making his MLB debut for the Astros. The Houston right-hander is known for having great control but also known for not having overwhelming stuff in terms of his repertoire of pitches and their movement. That being said, making an MLB debut at Coors Field without having dominating stuff even in normal pitching conditions, this is unlikely to go well for Urquidy. Note that the Rockies last 8 home games have produced 7 overs and just 1 under. In these 8 games at Colorado, the Rockies have scored an average of 10 runs per game but also allowed an average of 10 runs per game! The home side is starting German Marquez in this one. The right-hander has been hit at a .314 clip at Coors Field this season and has produced a 5.70 ERA in his 9 starts here. Marquez had similar struggles at home last season with a 4.74 ERA and being hit at a .284 clip in Denver. I also like the fact that his ERA has been rising higher with each month this season. Last month Marquez compiled a 6.60 ERA in his five starts. The over is 5-2 this season when Houston is off a win over a division rival in which they allowed 1 run or less. Also, the Astros are 10-3 to the over in Tuesday games this season. Colorado is 18-8 to the over this season as a home favorite of -110 or more. After a game in which they allowed double digits in runs scored, the Rockies are 9-2 to the over this season. More of the same on tap in what should be another wild one at Coors Field Tuesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-01-19 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Adbert Alzolay has made two appearances thus far for the Cubs and he has been successful. However, this will be just his 2nd start at the MLB level and his first ever appearance on the road. Also, let us not forget that this is a guy whom last season and this season combined has a 4.40 ERA at the minor league level. In other words, as strong as he has been thus far, it has been very limited action for sure at the MLB level and I am predicting a regression to the mean begins today. Look for Alzolay to struggle Monday at Pittsburgh. The Pirates are off a tough series at the plate at Milwaukee. However, prior to struggling to score runs against the Brewers, Pittsburgh had averaged 6.7 runs per game in their 15 previous games. Look for the Bucs to get back on track as they return home for this series with the Cubs. As for Chicago, they have defeated Trevor Williams in 5 of his 6 career starts against him. The Cubs have a number of hitters in their lineup whom have enjoyed success against the Pirates right-hander. Williams will be dealing with a Cubs team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. Williams has allowed 11 earned runs in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, on the season, Williams has a 6.00 ERA in his home starts with 3 of the 4 going over the total. Look for the Cubs hitters to start the new week off with a bang! This is the 10th Monday game this season for Chicago and so far the Cubs have had only 1 under this season in a Monday game! The Pirates are 18-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Pittsburgh is 11-4 to the over this season when they are at home and priced as an underdog of +100 or higher. The over is 6-0-1 in Pirates Monday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-30-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:10 ET - Congrats to Rockies starting pitcher Chi Chi Gonzalez on making it all the way back from Tommy John surgery. He is coming off his first start at the MLB level since 2016. Though he allowed only 3 earned runs in that outing it was against a light-hitting Giants team and it was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Also, it is not as if he had a great outing as he allowed 6 hits plus walked 4 in just 5 innings of work. Now he faces the slugging Dodgers at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Look for Gonzalez to struggle this afternoon at Coors Field. Keep in mind, prior to his MLB season debut versus SF, he was pitching in the minors this season. Gonzalez compiled a 5.66 ERA at the minor league level this season. In other words, he was very far from being dominant even when facing minor league hitters. Now he faces one of the toughest major league lineups in the game. Look for this one to get ugly for him fast. I know yesterday's game stayed well under the total but Kershaw went 7 innings and Gray went 6 and 2/3 innings. That means the teams combined to use just 3 and 1/3 innings of bullpen and that helped keep the total under. The fact is neither of these starts is likely to last long. Kenta Maeda has enjoyed some surprising success against the Rockies, even at Coors Field, in his career. However, I feel strongly it all catches up with him here as his road stats long-term tell the full story. Maeda has a 5.67 ERA on the road this season. Last season his home and road stats were about the same but in 2017 the Dodgers right-hander had a 5.62 ERA on the road. He is known for struggling away from home and the Rockies enter this game having averaged scoring 10.6 runs per game in their last 7 home games! They'll explode in this one and, keep in mind, prior to yesterday's low-scoring Rockies win the last 6 games here had averaged a total of 22 runs scored per game. Yes the total is a 13.5 on this one but don't let the big number scare you away as another slug-fest is on tap this afternoon at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-29-19 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:15 ET - It may seem surprising to see a 9.5 posted on a total that involves Justin Verlander pitching at home in Houston. Of course long-time followers know that when something may look a little unusual I am one to fade market perception and be a contrarian. On that note, even with Verlander on the mound and the fact yesterday's 10-inning affair totaled only 3 runs, I am on the over in a big way in this one. For one thing, Verlander has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season that the Mariners are getting a crack at Verlander and I look for the 3rd time to be the charm. The first two match-ups this season were in Seattle and Verlander held the upper hand. This one, however, is at Minute Maid Park and the last time Verlander faced the Mariners here was in August. The veteran right-hander got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 2 innings as he allowed 7 hits including 3 homers! Don't be surprised when Seattle enjoys some success at the plate in this one. As for the Astros sticks, they should pound Yusei Kikuchi as he has a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and that could easily be even worse. Kikuchi has allowed nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 outings! The over is an incredible 14-1-2 in Kikuchi's 17 starts this season! Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 4-1 in the Astros previous 5 games. The Mariners are 11-1-1 to the over in Saturday games this season! Also, Seattle is overall 55-25 to the over on the season - with 5 pushes - and that strong high-scoring trending resumes today after yesterday's rare low-scoring result. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Reds Sonny Gray and the Cubs Cole Hamels both have solid ERA numbers on the season. However, Gray has allowed 2 homers in each of his last two starts. Also, when he faced the Cubs last month the Reds right-hander also allowed 2 homers. Hamels allowed 8 hits (including 2 homers) in less than 7 innings of work the last time he faced the Reds. Also, he enters this start off an outing in which he also allowed 2 homers. Gray has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and Hamels, despite recent success, could struggle here at a very hitter-friendly park on a night when the ball will be carrying very well based on the weather forecast. The ball should be jumping off the bats on a very hot evening at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are happy to be back home after scoring just 1 run in each of the final two games of their road trip. Prior to that Cincinnati had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 8 prior games! As for the Cubs, they're off a huge 9-7 win yesterday. Chicago has averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their past 9 games. The over is 15-9 this season when the Cubs are facing a team with a losing record. Also, the over is 10-5 this season in Chicago's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 PM ET - Hot weather in Denver today and the ball is going to be carrying very well in this one tonight. The result is excellent line value with the over in this one. Yes the posted total on this one is big but, with conditions like this tonight as well as a very favorable pitching match-up for the hitters, this one will have runs aplenty. The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler in this one and this will be the 3rd time he has faced them this season. Yes he has had success thus far but look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the Rockies hitters. Last week's Buehler start was at Dodger Stadium and when he faced Colorado in early April that start was at Coors Field but with weather conditions completely unlike what will be seen tonight. The Rockies are averaging 7 runs per game at home this season. But the Colorado bullpen ERA at home is a 5.76 this season. That said the Dodgers hitters are poised for a big night at the plate too. Not only did they just face Peter Lambert last week in LA, now they get a shot at him in hitter-friendly Denver where Lambert has allowed 9 earned runs in just 8 innings spanning his two starts there. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Lambert's last 3 starts. The over is 7-3 in Colorado's Thursday games this season. The over is 23-13-1 in Rockies home games this season. With yesterday's over (Dodgers were at Arizona), note that Los Angeles has had just 2 unders in their last 9 games. All the over trending stays HOT in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-26-19 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - A lot of value here with low total posted on this game. I understand the low number of 7.5 (some odds makers opened up at 8) because Patrick Corbin had a great start versus the Marlins earlier this season and Zac Gailen had a great MLB debut last week. However, lets dive into the facts a little deeper and you can see why I am fading the line move on this one. The Nationals Corbin now has to pitch at Miami this time (first meeting was in DC) and the last time he pitched at Marlins Park he was rocked for 6 runs (5 earned) in 5 innings while allowing 3 homers! Corbin has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 5.91 ERA in road starts this season. The Marlins Gailen faced the team that drafted him (St Louis) last week so that was an emotional MLB debut for him. Yes he was successful in his 5 inning stint but it took 99 pitches to complete the 5 innings. The bullpen then imploded in that game and cost him a win. On that note, lets talk about these bullpens for a moment. The Nationals are the WORST bullpen in the majors this season based on team ERA and the Marlins certainly are NOT much better. That said, we've got a total of 7.5 in a game in which it wouldn't be a surprise if both starters got hit pretty hard and then weak bullpens also come into play. Note that the Nationals have won 7 of their last 10 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in doing so. Miami had won 6 of their last 9 games before yesterday's ugly loss and the Marlins had averaged 5 runs per game in winning 4 straight prior to that defeat. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Corbin's last 4 road starts. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-25-19 | Rays -113 v. Twins | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - It looks "easy" here to take the Twins at home. Long-time followers know what that means for me. In typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing the "hidden value" with the Rays in this one. Yes, Minnesota is tied with the Yankees for most wins in the American League. However, the Rays are right up there with the Twins in terms of best road record in the majors so far this season. That said, I like the small road favorite price here. Like I said, many will be attracted to the home dog Twins here since Minnesota has fared well against left-handed starters this season and since the Rays Blake Snell has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts. However, let us not forget that the odds makers are often the sharpest people in the room. This line is set this way with good reason and I like Tampa Bay in this one. Snell is fully capable of spinning a game here as he also has plenty of extra rest after short starts in each of his last two outings. The Twins Kyle Gibson also certainly has proven to be shaky of late. Yes he had a great outing two starts ago but that was against a Royals team that is one of the worst in the majors. In his other two most recent starts, Gibson has allowed 11 earned runs in just 9 and 1/3 innings. The Minnesota right-hander has a team record of 3-6 in his 9 career starts against TB and he has compiled a 5.22 ERA versus the Rays. Snell has a 3.60 ERA in his last two starts against the Twins and both were against Gibson. The Rays won the first one but lost the next one. Now it is payback time for Snell and the Rays in this one. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-25-19 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Rangers and Tigers feature two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on both opponents batting average and team ERA for their respective bullpen work. Certainly that could prove to be an issue here but Texas right-hander Jesse Chavez is making his first "real start" since July of 2017. What I mean by "real start" is that he has been used as an "opener" this season but those are truly short stints. This is the first time Texas is using him in hopes of getting 5 or 6 innings out of him as a starter. That said, he may struggle the 2nd time through a lineup and also could struggle early in this start too. Why? Well he has allowed 7 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his last two starts at Comerica Park. The good news for Rangers fans here is that the Tigers starter is also likely to struggle. Jordan Zimmerman just recently returned from injury and certainly he was not sharp in his first start back. Detroit is now 0-5 in Zimmerman's last 5 starts and the over is a perfect 5-0 in those starts. That is due in large part to the fact that Zimmerman is 0-4 in those 5 starts and has compiled an ugly 9.58 ERA in those outings. The right-hander is coming back from an elbow injury and he could be limited here. With both starters unlikely to work deep into this game, their sub-par bullpens could be exposed in this one. Texas is scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Certainly the Tigers numbers are not good in terms of offensive production this season. However, other than a shutout last week, the Tigers did average scoring 5.3 runs per game in their other 4 games. Couple that with the history of Chavez struggling in this park and you have a recipe for some Detroit success at the plate in this one. Look for the over to move to 6-0 in Zimmerman's last 6 starts as the over also moves to 10-3 in Rangers Tuesday games on the season. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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06-24-19 | Braves v. Cubs -117 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs are offering strong line value here at home against the Braves. Chicago southpaw Jon Lester has a 2.76 ERA in his 8 starts at Wrigley Field this season and the Cubs have gone 6-2 in those outings. The Braves are starting Julio Teheran in this one. The Atlanta right-hander gave up 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his most recent start. Also, Teheran gave up 4 earned runs in just 6 innings in his most recent start at Wrigley Field. Teheran walked 3 while striking out just 1 in that outing. The Braves right-hander also allowed 2 homers in that start at Wrigley Field. Lester got a no decision in his only start against the Braves this season but that start was at Atlanta and he remains 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA in his 10 lifetime starts against the Braves. Both teams are off low-scoring wins yesterday but I like the fact the Cubs remain at home for this one while Atlanta continues their road trip. Also, Chicago is now 11-4 this season in home games with a money line range of +125 to -125. Look for that strong home record in this price range to continue on Monday. 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Although the Yankees CC Sabathia has had great success at home this season, I expect the lefty to get roughed up here. The last time Sabathia faced the Blue Jays in the Bronx was not that long ago (September) and he was rocked for 5 earned runs in only 2 and 1/3 innings. Sabathia has allowed 5 homers in his last 9 and 1/3 innings against Toronto. The Blue Jays enter this contest with plenty of confidence at the plate. Toronto is off a 6-1 win Sunday and has won 3 of its last 4 games. Also, in terms of run production, the Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 8 games. This one is likely to turn into a slugfest as the Blue Jays start Aaron Sanchez in this one. The right-hander is 0-8 in his last 8 decisions. Also, Sanchez is most recently 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in his three most recent starts. He is 0-2 with 7 earned runs allowed in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against New York. The Yankees lineup comes into this game red hot. Prior to a 9-4 loss to the Astros yesterday, the Yankees had won 8 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in doing so. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being a 7-6 type game. The over is 13-7, including 3-1 this season, when Toronto is on the road in a game with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-23-19 | Orioles v. Mariners OVER 9 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - Another high-scoring game yesterday as these two teams have now combined for 31 runs in the last two games. The Orioles are 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 games as Baltimore has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game their past 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs their past 4 games. The Mariners are 18-5-2 to the over in their past 25 games! Seattle has allowed an average of 5.8 runs per game their last dozen games. Baltimore's Gabriel Ynoa is winless with a 5.65 ERA this season. Also, he has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts while compiling an ugly 8.78 ERA in these outings. Incredibly, the over is 13-1-2 this season in Kikuchi's starts. The over is 22-6 in Mariners day games this season. This match-up also features the two worst bullpens in the American League this season as the Mariners have a 5.26 ERA and the Orioles have a 6.13 ERA on the season. With the way these starting pitchers and bullpens have been performing, plus the fact that both teams have hit well in recent days, this one has slugfest written all over it. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-23-19 | Astros -125 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Money Line (-) @ New York Yankees @ 2:05 ET - With yesterday's win the Yankees have now won 8 straight while the Astros have now lost 7 straight. That said, this big play for me Sunday on Houston may seem like a "gutsy" call but the reality is there are key reasons to expect the Astros lineup to have a huge afternoon compared to the Yankees sticks. Even though Houston lost 7-5 yesterday they outhit New York 11-7. Also, the Yanks struck out 12 times while the Astros fanned only 3 times. After a sloppy game (3 errors) for Houston yesterday, I fully expect a big bounce back with Justin Verlander on the mound in this one. Even though he has struggled with giving up the long ball in his last two starts, he has still looked quite impressive. Verlander continues to pile up the strikeouts while the Yankees J.A. Happ is struggling to record strikeouts. Overall, the Yanks southpaw has been getting hit quite hard and also has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts combined. Verlander has a 2.92 ERA in road starts this season while Happ has a 5.13 ERA in home starts this season. Verlander has allowed only 15 hits while striking out 25 over the 20 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Yankees. Conversely, Happ has allowed 14 hits (including 4 homers) plus has walked 5 in his last two starts against the Astros. That means Happ is allowing nearly 2 baserunners per inning in recent starts versus Houston. The Astros are 16-6 against left-handed starters this season. The Yankees are 0-2 the last two times they faced Verlander and, in their prior meeting, the Yanks got the win despite Verlander pitching 8 innings of shutout ball with 14 strikeouts. Look for road dominance in this one. 10* HOUSTON |
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06-22-19 | White Sox v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:05 ET - This total opened up at an 11 and dropped to a 10.5 as of early game day morning. I am well aware of the fact that Lance Lynn has pitched very well this season but he also struggles much more versus left-handed bats than righties. The White Sox have a number of left-handed bats and switch-hitters that could give him some trouble tonight. Also, with their 5-4 win last night, the White Sox have won 5 of their last 8 games and have averaged a respectable 6 runs scored per game in those 5 wins. The Rangers, despite the 5-4 tenth inning loss yesterday, have a very potent offense and have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season and 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters. Texas should enjoy a breakout game at the plate tonight as they take advantage of facing the struggling Odrisamer Despaigne. He is 13-26 with a 5.05 ERA at the MLB level in his career and things are going from bad to worse for the White Sox right-hander. He is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA in his two starts this season. The over was 6-2 in the White Sox 8 games prior to last night's game staying under the total. The over was 4-1 in the Rangers last 5 games prior to now recording back to back unders at home (rare). Look for "normal" to return tonight with a slugfest at Globe Life Park in Arlington. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-21-19 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - The Padres bullpen has a 5.52 ERA in road games. The Pirates bullpen has a 5.60 ERA in home games. San Diego starter Eric Lauer has a 7.82 ERA in road starts. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has a 5.71 ERA in home starts. Lauer has allowed 22 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 career starts against the Pirates. Musgrove has fared well in his two career starts against the Padres but both of those were at pitcher friendly Petco Field. This match-up at PNC Park will prove to be a much tougher one for him. Musgrove's two starts against the Padres both went over the total and the over is 2-1 in Lauer's three starts against the Pirates. The over is 10-2 in Musgrove's last dozen starts! The over is 6-1 this season when the Padres are playing after a day off. Also, when San Diego enters a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-1 this season. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 7-2 in Pittsburgh this season. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 we have excellent line value here. The over is also 11-5 this season in Pirates games against left-handed starters. The Bucs enter this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. The Padres enter this game having scored an average of 9 runs per game their last 6 games. Per all of the above, all signs point to this one cashing nicely for us. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-20-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Milwaukee's game flew over the total yesterday and I look for more of the same today. I know the Brewers had been trending under recently and, overall, the Reds have been trending under all season (including yesterday) but the situation here is conducive to an over. The Brewers are coming off a tough road trip and are happy to be back home. They will take advantage of facing a struggling Tanner Roark. The Cincinnati right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. All 3 of those outings resulted in an under but it certainly wasn't due to his pitching. Now Roark faces a Brewers team that has gotten to him for 7 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings in his two most recent starts against them. Milwaukee has their own concern in terms of their starting pitcher Thursday. Jimmy Nelson gets the start and the Brewers right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in just 7 innings combined in his first two starts this season (both this month). Also, Nelson certainly doesn't have good recent history against the Reds. In his most recent start against Cincinnati, Nelson gave up 9 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 3-0 in Nelson's starts on the season. The Brewers have a .480 slugging percentage at home this season which ranks them 4th in the majors! The Reds have won 4 straight games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this hot streak. Cincinnati scored 7 runs in their most recent road game too, also a victory. Both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-19-19 | Royals v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - The Mariners got shut out at home yesterday and the 9-0 Royals win just missed going over the total. That has set up the type of situation I look for when it comes to totals. On Wednesday, the Mariners have the struggling pitcher on the mound so the Royals should keep scoring. At the same time, you know Seattle is poised to bounce back at the plate after a rare home shutout loss. The Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors this month. First off lets talk about Marco Gonzales. The Seattle left-hander is likely wishing he was not at home for this start. In his 4 home starts dating back to May 1st, Gonzales has been nothing short of awful. The southpaw has allowed 30 runs (24 earned) in just 15 and 1/3 innings. Those are horrible numbers of course and the KC bats have plenty of confidence here as they have now scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 3 games. The Mariners, prior to yesterday's shutout, had scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last dozen games. They'll bounce back here against Brad Keller. I know that the Kansas City right-hander has some impressive numbers this season and a low ERA on the season. However, Keller has been hit quite hard in many of his road starts this season. In fact, prior to a surprisingly strong road start at Minnesota in his most recent outing, Keller had given up 19 hits in 13 innings spanning his two prior starts away from home. The Mariners have a quality lineup that is in bounce back mode and will enjoy success here. The over is 15-4-2 in Seattle's last 21 games. The over is 20-6-1 in Mariners day games this season and this one starts at 3:40 PM local time. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-19-19 | Brewers +101 v. Padres | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Wednesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres @ 3:40 ET - First off, make this bet as action. That said, if there is a pitching change, your bet will still be active. I recommend this because the Padres Matt Strahm has been bothered by a rib injury and, if he would be scratched, I still like this play because I like the Brewers to bounce back after scoring just 1 run in yesterday's loss. Zach Davies is slated to be the starter for Milwaukee in this one. The right-hander has been a little up and down lately but the Padres lineup has very little experience with him plus he is still a fantastic 7-1 this season with a very impressive 2.60 ERA. On the road this season he has a superb 2.25 ERA in his 8 starts. Also, though Davies has been a little up and down, San Diego's Strahm has truly just been down in recent outings. The Padres left-hander has allowed multiple homers in each of his last 3 starts. In his last two starts, including one at home against a bad Marlins team, Strahm allowed 13 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work! The Brewers are 17-9 in day games this season. Milwaukee is off back to back losses and that is certainly noteworthy here as they have not lost 3 straight games since over 5 weeks ago in mid-May. The Padres Strahm is 0-3 in his last 3 starts! San Diego has won 3 straight games but, prior to this rare hot streak, the Padres had lost 13 of their last 19 games. The Brewers also rate the bullpen edge in this match-up. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - I am coming right back with the over in the Rangers / Indians match-up after losing by the slimmest of margins with yesterday's picks. Yes today's total is a 10.5 whereas yesterday's was a 9.5 but that is because of the pitching match-up here. Don't be fooled by the strong ERA of Zach Plesac and the respectable ERA of Adrian Sampson in this one. I will start with the latter. Sampson has been hit at a .287 batting average in his career and that includes opponents hitting .284 against him this season. In other words, his stuff is nothing special and I look for the Tribe to hammer him after being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss. As for Plesac, the 24-year old rookie started out like gangbusters in his first 3 starts but his most recent start (allowed 3 homers to the Reds) is a sign of things to come. That start versus Cincinnati was at home for Plesac and now he goes on the road for the first time in over two weeks. Not only that, he is facing a Rangers team that is the #1 scoring team in the AL when at home. Texas is averaging 5.9 runs per game in their 37 games played in Arlington this season. The Rangers have scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 home games. Cleveland, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their last 3 road games. The Indians bats get back on track here and the Rangers sticks stay hot at home in hitter-friendly conditions at Globe Life Park in Arlington Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-18-19 | Angels -105 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Money Line (-) @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Angels doubled up the Blue Jays 10-5 yesterday and more of the same is on tap today. Toronto is 12-26 this season in games played on turf and, of course, that includes all their home games. The Blue Jays are also an ugly 14-27 in night games this season. The Angels are 9-6 this season against AL East teams and, overall, yesterday's big win moves LA's record to 5-2 in their last 7 games. The Jays have lost 8 of their last 11 games overall and that includes 5 straight defeats at home. Los Angeles is 4-2 in Tyler Skaggs career starts against the Blue Jays and the southpaw has compiled a 3.93 ERA in those outings. Toronto's Marcus Stroman gave up 4 earned runs in just 3 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start against the Angels. Also, the Jays right-hander has a 5.02 ERA in his 6 appearances (5 starts) versus LA. The Blue Jays righty has been laboring a bit in the month of June and has a 4.82 ERA. I mentioned Toronto's 3-8 run above and, going further back, it is a 5-15 run for the Blue Jays their last 20 games. The Angels opened up as high as a -125 favorite here but now fell into a pick'em price range. I love the value with the much better team at a bargain price here. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - Lance Lynn has strong numbers for the Rangers overall but even though he is undefeated in his home starts he has actually been hit quite hard in his starts in Arlington. Also, against left-handed batters Lynn struggles much more than against righties. That will prove to be an issue against the Indians because they are loaded with left-handed sticks and switch-hitters. Don't be surprised if Mike Clevinger struggles too. This is his first start at the MLB level since he hurt his back two months ago. In a rehab start at the AAA level he gave up 3 earned runs in just 2 innings. He is a hard thrower but that is actually the type of pitcher the Rangers have had success against in the past and Texas is a very strong hitting team when at home. Clevinger also may struggle a bit with his location as this is his first start in two months. The Rangers bats, especially when in Arlington, can certainly make pitchers pay for "mistake pitches" in terms of location. The Indians scored 8 runs in yesterday's win and they are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 8 games. The Rangers are off an 11-3 loss yesterday on the road but they entered that game having scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 9 prior games. The over is 5-1 in Cleveland's Monday games this season. The over is 15-9 when the Rangers are facing a team with a winning record. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason. The Indians have a strong bullpen but the Rangers do not and, with the line move down to a 9.5, I am happy to grab the extra value being offered here. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 12-0 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:10 ET - The Astros are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line in this one with good reason. Of course I would never lay that type of price but this is the type of situation where the run line can prove to be very valuable. By taking Houston -1.5 runs the price on the Astros drops into the pick'em range and that is offering great value as an Astros win by 2 runs or more is highly like. The Astros are 6-1 in Brad Peacock's home starts this season. Also, the Blue Jays Trent Thornton has been in significant jams in his recent starts and has been fortunate to work himself out of those. The Toronto right-hander won't be so fortunate Sunday as he faces one of the toughest lineups in the league. The Astros have blasted the Jays by a combined score of 22 to 4 in the first two games of this series. Overall, Houston has averaged scoring 8.8 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Blue Jays last 10 losses have all come by 2 runs or more. In fact, Toronto has lost those 10 games by an average margin of 5.5 runs per defeat! The Blue Jays are 10-27 (including 1-7 this season) as a road underdog of +175 to +250 and that is the range they fall into again today. Look for another home rout as the Astros stay hot at the plate and also hold a big pitching edge in this match-up. Thornton has a 6.13 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* HOUSTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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06-16-19 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - The Twins have been hitting the ball very well but today have a "weak link" in their starting rotation taking the mound and that set this one up well to be an over. Of course the odds makers feel the same way I do and set this total as high a a 10 but the markets have already forced a move down to as low as a 9. This is the ideal situation I like to take advantage of in terms of value and I won't hesitate to step in on this one! The Twins Martin Perez is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The left-hander will be opposed by the Royals Jake Junis. The KC right-hander is unlikely to have success here. Junis gave up 3 homers in just 3 innings the last time he faced Minnesota. Also, Junis has allowed 9 homers in his last 6 road starts. Overall he has allowed at least 2 homers in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Twins have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota has had just 1 under in its last 10 games! The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 starts that Perez has made. The over is 18-11-3 in Twins games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. This one is set to fly over the total and I am going to take advantage of the value added by false perception on the part of the betting markets. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-15-19 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a wild one to say the least. The Padres came up with a huge rally in the top of the 9th and then won the game with another huge rally in the top of the 12th! The game finished a 16-12 San Diego win and both teams had to use 7 innings of bullpen as the starters for both the Padres and Rockies only lasted 5 innings. Another wild one is quite likely tonight and I like the fact that the total on this game dropped from an 11.5 to an 11 as that is offering up even more line value with this one. Both the Padres Eric Lauer and Rockies German Marquez are likely to struggle here. Marquez has been great on the road last season and this season but home outings have been a different story. Last season Marquez was hit at a .284 clip in home games and compiled a 4.74 ERA. This season Marquez has been hit at a .303 clip at Coors Field and compiled a 5.06 ERA. Lauer has made two career starts at Coors Field and both were nightmares. The Padres southpaw has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in just 6 innings spanning his two career starts at Colorado. Considering the likelihood of each starter struggling here, the fact that both bullpens got stretched out yesterday, and the fact that the ball will again be carrying very well at hitter-friendly Coors Field, this one has "over" written all "over" it! 4 of the 5 meetings between these teams in Colorado this season have resulted in an over. The over is 9-3-1 in San Diego's last 13 games. Each team scored a dozen runs yesterday and I look for the teams to, at the very least, combine for a dozen runs in this one Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-15-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington Nationals Run Line -1.5 runs vs Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - Huge pitching edge for the Nationals here and, of course, that is why they are priced as a 2 to 1 favorite here on the money line. We can still get involved here with Washington without laying big prices as we can go with the Nationals on the run line in this one. That brings the price down to a pick'em range and, certainly a Washington win is likely to come by 2 or more runs here. That's because 25 of the Nationals 32 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs and more than half of the Diamondbacks losses this season have come by a multiple run margin. Arizona is starting Taylor Clarke in this one and the right-hander has a 6.35 ERA as a starter this season including a 9.58 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Nats start Stephen Strasburg in this one and he has settled in quite nicely after a rough start to the season when he was struggling with the long ball. Strasburg has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. Also, one of the weaknesses for Washington is their bullpen but Strasburg has averaged 7 innings per starts his last 10 starts so truly the bullpen impact in this game should be minimal and the Nationals should be able to use their top relievers to close this one out. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Nationals are 5-1 this season. Also, the Nats are 3-0 in Strasburg's last 3 starts overall and also 3-0 in his last 3 home starts. As a road dog in a range of +175 to +250, Arizona is 2-11 their last 13 and I like the strong odds that a Diamondbacks loss here comes by 2 or more runs. 10* WASHINGTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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06-14-19 | Cardinals +122 v. Mets | Top | 9-5 | Win | 122 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Friday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Cardinals bullpen ranks #1 in the majors for opponents batting average as they have held the opposition to a .205 so far this season. Conversely, the Mets bullpen ranks near the bottom of the majors for opponents batting average (.261) and ERA (5.08) on the season. As for the starting pitchers in this match-up, Daniel Ponce de Leon holds an advantage in that the Mets hitters are not familiar with him. Though he has been pitching at the AAA level he has good stuff and has had some success at the major league level in his career. With that said, he is flying under the radar right now and this has led to great value in this spot. I especially like the fact that the Cards opened up as a -115 favorite here and now the Mets are as high as a -135 favorite as of very early Friday morning. As long-time followers know, I love going against the grain when it comes to line moves. Sure Steven Matz deserves some respect but the Mets southpaw has a match-up issue when it comes to facing the Cardinals. The southpaw is 0-3 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his 3 career starts against St Louis. That spells trouble in this spot and, I also rate the lineups as equal. That said, we have the edge both in starting pitching and in terms of the relievers for this match-up. The Mets went 19-35 in June games the past two years and have not impressed in June of this year thus far. At the MLB level Ponce de Leon has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .194 batting average. Those stats are over 38 innings and I look for him to get his much-deserved first win at the MLB level on Friday night at Citi Field. 10* ST LOUIS CARDINALS |
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06-14-19 | Angels v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's total was an 8.5 and moved to a 9 in some spots and those who had the over got burned. The game was 5-3 through 5 innings so only one run was needed the rest of the way but it didn't happen. Yes the Rays pen has been strong this season but they had struggled some of late. Also, the Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom of the 3rd of the majors but, inexplicably, there was not a single run scored in the final 4 innings of last night's game. I like coming back with the over in the very next game after one plays out like that and I especially like the fact that this total opened up as high as an 8 but has since dropped to as low as a 7 as of early Friday morning. The Rays Blake Snell has great numbers again this season but has a 6.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Angels Andrew Heaney has allowed multiple homers in each of his 3 starts this season. The trouble with the longball is why he has a 6.17 ERA in his last two starts. Based on the above as well as the low total on this one following the line move, you can see why I like the over in this match-up. The Angels are averaging 5.7 runs per game their last dozen games. The Rays have suddenly been held to 3 or less runs in each of their last 3 games but, prior to this tough 3-game stretch, they had averaged 5.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Heaney allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start at Tropicana Field and the Rays again get to the homer-prone lefty in this one. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-13-19 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 101 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total to continue the high-scoring trend for these two ball clubs. The over is now 7-1 in the Mariners last 8 games and the Twins are 8-1-3 to the over in their last 12 games. That' right, three pushes and just ONE under in Minnesota's last DOZEN games! Look for the high-scoring ways of both teams to continue here as this is also a favorable pitching match-up for an over and the weather will be very pleasant in Minneapolis for this afternoon affair. The Twins are starting Michael Pineda and he got rocked for 3 earned runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings in his first start back after returning from injury. The Mariners are starting Yusei Kikuchi and he is in a horrific slide. In his last 3 starts Kikuchi has allowed 29 hits (including 6 homers) in just 10 innings of work! The southpaw was successful against the Twins in a mid-May start but he has struggled since then and Minnesota will enjoy success in their 2nd shot at Kikuchi this afternoon. As for the Twins Pineda, he has allowed 6 homers in 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against the Mariners. The over is 19-5 in Seattle's day games this season and also a perfect 6-0 in their road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 9-1 this season in Mariners Thursday games! The over is 8-4 this season in Minnesota's games against left-handed starters. The over is 6-1 this season in Twins Thursday games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-12-19 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 102 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
NOTE: Derek Law now getting the start as an "opener" for the Blues Jays in this one. He has pitched only 18 innings in his 14 appearances out of the bullpen this season. Law has a 5.89 ERA. This play remains as a Top Play even though Law is now the opener. Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been trending under this month and we've got a big total (11) posted on this game. That would make this seem like a value spot for an under but the pitching match-up here suggests plenty of runs in this one! The Blue Jays Edwin Jackson is struggling badly this season and even though only 2 of the runs he allowed in his most recent start were earned, the fact is he allowed 6 runs in 3 and 1/3 innings. The veteran right-hander is 0-4 with an 11.90 ERA on the season. He'll be opposed by the Orioles David Hess and he is 1-8 with a 7.08 ERA on the season. He had a great start against the Blue Jays very early this season but, since then, Hess has compiled an 8.20 ERA. The over is 3-1 in Jackson's last 4 starts and the over is 4-1 the 5 home starts Hess has made this season. The weather will also be favorable for an over at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. This venue is known as a hitter friendly venue and everything lines up well for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. The Orioles bullpen has a 5.61 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the American League. The last 10 times Baltimore has played a home game with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs, only 3 of the 10 games has resulted in an under! In other words, don't let the big number keep you away from this match-up as the Orioles and Blue Jays should both do plenty of damage at the plate considering this pitching match-up. Toronto had allowed an average of 7 runs per game their last 9 games before yesterday's under. The Orioles had allowed an average of 7 runs per game in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday. Look for both teams to put plenty on the board in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |