Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-07-20 | Ohio State +2.5 v. Maryland | Top | 55-67 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #607 Tuesday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 7 ET - The Buckeyes are off back to back losses and did struggle against Wisconsin in their first game without Kyle Young. However, I fully expect a bounce back effort as they'll be better adjusted in their 2nd game without him. Also, this is a double revenge spot for Ohio State as they lost both games against Maryland last season. The Terrapins are off B2B wins and the Buckeyes are off B2B losses. That sets this one up perfectly. Note that prior to covering their most recent win, the Terps had failed to cover 4 straight games. Ohio State lost both games against Maryland last season by a double digit margin. They haven't forgotten that and the Buckeyes are very hungry here off back to back losses. They catch the Terrapins at the right time for the upset since Maryland is off a big win over Indiana in Big Ten action. The Buckeyes are 1-2 in Big Ten action and the Terrapins 2-1. Time to do something about that here! Both teams are strong defensively but the Buckeyes have been the better shooting team this season and I expect a huge game from them here which means we have strong value with the road dog. 10* OHIO STATE |
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01-06-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +1.5 | Top | 55-41 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #864 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 9 ET - Both teams off losses but, while the Mountaineers are off a tight hard-fought loss to Kansas, the Cowboys are off an absolutely embarrassing beating at Texas Tech. As a result I look for Oklahoma State to be the hungrier team and they will respond very well at home in this match-up. Yes, West Virginia is the ranked team but they are laying a small number in this game in what absolutely looks like a "trap spot" for the Mountaineers. Also, note that West Virginia is actually on a 5-14 SU run in January games. Additionally, the Mountaineers are 0-5 SU when they are off a game in which they were held to 55 points or less! That is the opposite of what you might expect but of course the numbers do not lie. The Cowboys are 8-3 ATS (and SU) when off a loss by a margin of 15 points or more. Big response from the home team here so don't be fooled by the fact that the ranked team is hardly favored here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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01-05-20 | St. John's +8 v. Xavier | Top | 67-75 | Push | 0 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #835 Sunday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 4:30 ET - The Red Storm have upgraded Mustapha Heron to probable for this game. They are 9-2 in games he has played this season and one of the two losses came by just two points. The senior guard will pay big dividends against Xavier in this match-up. St John's is a scrappy, hard-nosed team that plays solid defense. They are exactly the type of scrappy underdog I like to have in a spot like this catching significant points and with the X-factor (Heron coming back) being included in the situation. The Red Storm won't back down in this game and they catch Xavier off a hard-fought loss to Villanova. The Musketeers may have trouble responding off that loss and this is a team that has been under-performing ATS as they have failed to cover 6 of their past 9 games. The Red Storm have been the much better team ATS this season and the fact that Xavier has won 9 straight meetings between these teams has led to even more line value here as the Musketeers are priced higher than they should be. The underdog goes all out here and gets a boost from Heron and they are in this game all the way to the very end in a game likely decided by just a possession or two when all is said and done. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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01-04-20 | Villanova v. Marquette | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #650 Saturday 10* Top Play Marquette Golden Eagles (-) vs Villanova Wildcats @ 2 ET - Here is a classic case of contrarian viewpoint which is a big part of my handicapping style. Here you have a ranked team that only has 1 loss on the season and so they look like an easy pick over a unranked team that has 3 losses on the season. Yes, Marquette is at home but they have 3 losses - all by 17 points or more - and Villanova has just one loss this season and it came by a single digit margin. These are the types of games that tend to persuade the majority of bettors to one side and that is most often when I am on the other side. Give me the Golden Eagles at home as they bounce back off an ugly loss at Creighton and they catch the Wildcats off a hard-fought win over Xavier. When Marquette is at home and off an ATS loss they have won SU all 3 times this season. Also, the Wildcats are off B2B hard-fought wins (SU and ATS to the closing numbers) but they had previously lost 6 in a row ATS. Value here on the home team to simply win the game! 10* MARQUETTE |
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01-03-20 | Temple v. Tulsa +3.5 | Top | 44-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #874 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs Temple Owls @ 9 ET - Not only is Tulsa 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams, one of Temple's SU wins in those 4 meetings came by just a single point. I love the value here with the Golden Hurricane getting nearly 2 buckets at home after this line opened up at a -2. I understand the move as the Owls are off to a great start this season and I have actually backed them multiple times. However, this is the perfect spot to fade them as they are now over-valued. Temple barely snuck by Central Florida for a win on New Year's Eve. Now they are trying to win back to back road games even though they are on shorter rest than Tulsa. Also, note that the Golden Hurricane are extra hungry after a 2-point loss as an 8-point dog in their most recent game. Tulsa is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in recent home meetings with Temple. The Owls drop to 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they have been off a loss in which they allowed 61 points or less. The Golden Hurricane improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they have played in a game with a line in the single digits (dog or fave). Look for Tulsa to again thrive as an underdog and also to continue their home dominance of Temple. The Owls have been great on defense this season but the Golden Hurricane also have played well on that end of the floor and plus are shooting 47.6% from the field in home games while Temple is shooting just 38.8% from the field in road games. 10* TULSA |
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01-02-20 | Minnesota +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #617 Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 7 ET - The Golden Gophers should have guard Payton Willis back for this game. Whether he plays or not though, I love the big dog value being offered with Minnesota in this one. The Golden Gophers have won each of the last two meetings with Purdue. I know that makes this a revenge game for the Boilermakers but Minnesota is playing very well right now and will be tough to beat in this game. That said, I like the big points being offered. Keep in mind, the Golden Gophers have won 3 straight games and they won all 3 by a double digit margin even though they were an underdog in 2 of the 3 contests! The Boilermakers are just 4-3 SU in their last 7 games and one of those 3 losses was as a double digit favorite. Minnesota has been the better shooting team this season. Purdue has the better defensive numbers on the season but the edge there is not huge. Plus the Boilermakers have allowed 70 points in 2 of their last 3 games. The Gophers have allowed 66 points or less in 5 of their past 8 games. 10* MINNESOTA |
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01-01-20 | South Florida v. SMU -6.5 | Top | 64-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #828 Wednesday 10* Top Play SMU Mustangs (-) vs South Florida Bulls @ 5 ET - The Bulls leading scorer is David Collins and he missed their most recent game. Though I do expect the junior guard to be back for this game, he will not be 100% as his ankle has been bothering him. The Mustangs are the better shooting team and the better team defensively and they are at home here. Though Southern Methodist won the most recent match-up between these teams they did lose their most recent home game versus South Florida by a single point last season. They haven't forgotten that and are seeking revenge here. I like the fact that the Mustangs have been so strong defensively and the only reason that their recent win against Georgia State was as close (9 points) as it was related to the fact that the Panthers kept hitting late threes. Overall SMU does a very good job defending the 3. By the way, Southern Methodist hitting close to 80% from the free throw line while USF is hitting just 60% from the free throw line. Look for the Mustangs to pull away as this one goes on. 10* SMU |
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12-31-19 | Temple -2 v. UCF | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #793 Tuesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) @ UCF Knights @ 2 ET - After a long layoff, first game in 10 days for each team, the importance of defense is even greater as both teams are likely to struggle to find their shooting rhythm early on. That said, I look for the Owls to prevail in this one. They have lost recent visits to UCF as this series continues to be dominated by the host. However, this looks like the ideal spot for Temple to break that streak. The Owls have responded very well under new head coach Aaron McKie. Additionally, Temple is the much better defense in this match-up. They are allowing just 62 points per game on 36% shooting and only 28% from beyond the arc. The Knights are actually allowing 68 points per game in home games this season. Also, Central Florida has allowed 42% shooting including 32% from 3-point land in home games this season. Those are still solid numbers but the Owls hold the edge as you can see and they have really bought into McKie's system following the retirement of long time head coach Fran Dunphy. Crazy stats have cost the Owls in their last two visits to UCF. Last season saw the Knights hit a ridiculous 60% from the field and the prior season's match-up at Central Florida saw the Owls shoot only 32% from the field. It is no wonder that Temple lost both those games and they make up for it in this visit as the Knights are still trying to get over a 1-point loss at Oklahoma prior to their Christmas break. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-30-19 | Xavier +5.5 v. Villanova | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
TV Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #725 Monday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - Revenge game for Xavier. I am well aware of the fact that Villanova has had their number in recent meetings and that this is particularly true when the Wildcats have the home court edge. However, the Musketeers have just two losses this season and each were by 5 or less points and Villanova is truly not quite as strong this season as they have been in other recent seasons. Remember the Wildcats have already been blasted by Ohio State this seasons and they lost by 9 points to Baylor. I project Villanova to have their hands full here with a Xavier team seeking revenge for a mid-March loss to the Wildcats. The Musketeers covered that game as they lost by just 4 as a 7 point dog. I look for the outright upset here but if Xavier does again fall just short look for it to be by just a bucket. Grab the points. The Musketeers catch the Wildcats off their big win over Kansas prior to Christmas. Prior to that victory Villanova had lost 6 straight games ATS. The ATS losing pattern resumes here for the Cats. 10* XAVIER |
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12-29-19 | Arkansas +5.5 v. Indiana | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #679 Sunday 10* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks (+) @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 6 ET - The Razorbacks are playing this game with revenge from a March Madness loss to the Hoosiers. These teams met in the regular season last year too. Both games were decided by 3 or less points and the average margin of the 2 games was just 2 points. I like the value here with this line now spiking up to 5.5 points. The Razorbacks not have revenge here, their defense has been fantastic this season. Arkansas is allowing just 59.5 points per game and only 21.8% from three point land! I am going to grab the points here with the revenge-minded Razorbacks as their strong defense leads the way to victory here. I am expecting the SU outright upset but if Arkansas does fall short look for it again be a game decided by 3 or less points. The Razorbacks are a long-term 11-2 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. Hoosiers are off a tight win over Notre Dame as a small favorite in their most recent game. Indiana is a long-term 9-18 ATS in games against SEC opponents. 10* ARKANSAS |
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12-28-19 | Louisville +2 v. Kentucky | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #629 Saturday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 3:45 ET - The Wildcats are at home and have dominated this series in recent seasons. Kentucky has won the last two games by an average margin of 21 points per game. Yet the line on this one, even though it is being played in Lexington, was a pick'em. As expected, everyone piling on UK here and the line is up to a -2. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move. The Cardinals are the better team so far this season and I expect that to play out as such on Saturday afternoon. Kentucky is off back to back losses while the Cards have just one loss this entire season. Louisville has been the better team on defense this season and they also have been the better shooting team including much better from three point land. The Cardinals have been hot ATS and they are 9-3 ATS the last dozen time they have entered a game having covered 4 of their last 5 games. That is the situation here and I expect another ATS cover to come via an outright upset in this game. Look for the Cards to knock off a Wildcats team which has a history of poor ATS performances in a situation like this. Kentucky drops to a long-term 4-8 ATS when entering a game off B2B close losses (by a margin of 6 or less points). 10* LOUISVILLE |
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12-25-19 | Georgia Tech v. Hawaii +1.5 | Top | 70-53 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #826 Wednesday 10* Top Play Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 6:30 ET - The Yellow Jackets could have some trouble with motivation here and I love fading the line move in this one as the Rainbow Warriors have gone from being the favorite to being the dog in this one. Keep in mind Georgia Tech came here to win this tourney not to be playing for 3rd place. As for Hawaii, this is nothing new. They have NEVER played in the Championship Game of this tournament which has been going for a bout a decade now. But Hawaii has won 3rd place twice in recent seasons (2014 and 2015). In other words, they are at home and playing for pride on their home floor and have proven in the past that they can get up for a game like this. I also love the fact that the Warriors shot horrifically bad in their their loss to a ranked Washington team on Monday. That is why Hawaii lost the game by 11 points despite having 22 more shots from the field than the Huskies had! Sometimes crazy things happen in these games and the key to capitalizing is to catch the "rebound effect". In this case look for the Warriors to "bounce back" after that unusually bad shooting night on their home floor. I know that Georgia Tech has played the tougher schedule this season but the situational edges for Hawaii are the key to the value in this one. I don't see the Warriors being denied. They had won 7 of 9 before the loss to Washington. The Jackets have lost 4 of their past 5 games and all 4 defeats have come by a double digit margin. Motivated home team is the play here and they earn 3rd place for the 3rd time in the past 6 Christmas tournaments. 10* HAWAII |
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12-23-19 | Georgia State v. SMU -8 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #808 Monday 10* Top Play SMU Mustangs (-) vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7 ET - The Mustangs are off a double OT loss at Georgia but they dominated the rebounds, had less turnovers, and had more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs. This SMU team is a high-quality team but off back to back losses. They have had two days to recuperate since the loss at Georgia and this is their final game until the new year. The Mustangs want to make the most of this and certainly don't want to wrap up 2019 on a 3-game losing streak. SMU has a very strong frontcourt while that is the weak area for the Georgia State team they are facing. I look for the hungry Mustangs to be very aggressive here and I look for them to dominate the glass. The Panthers are a little over-rated right now because they are off to a hot start but they are on short rest here as they hosted Texas State on Saturday. While the Mustangs are playing just their 2nd game in a span of 16 days, Georgia State is playing its 3rd game in 5 days. Big situational edge for Southern Methodist University and I look for them to dominate and win this home game by at least a dozen points. The Panthers are a good team but they are still a middle of the pack SunBelt Conference team and the Mustangs are very hungry and at home in this one. Georgia State drops to 1-4 ATS when off a game against a conference foe in which they scored 80 or more points. The Mustangs improve to 5-0 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 85 or more points. 10* SMU |
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12-22-19 | Xavier +3 v. TCU | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #787 Sunday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 5 ET - The Musketeers are the stronger team and are expected to have leading scorer Naji Marshall back for this one after he missed their previous game. The Horned Frogs are a little over-rated right now as they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with Xavier. I had the Musketeers as a Top 25 team entering this season. As for TCU, they came into this season projected to be at the bottom of the Big 12 standings this season. The Horned Frogs are off to a strong start this season but it is because of their schedule. The only two times TCU has had a single-digit line this season they lost both games outright! Every other game this season Texas Christian has been favored by a dozen or more. The Musketeers, on the other hand, have played 5 games with a single digit line this season and have won 3 of them. The other two games were the only 2 losses that Xavier has this season and each defeat came by 5 or less points. As a road dog of 6 or less points the Musketeers are on a 9-3 ATS run including a perfect 3-0 ATS run the last 3 time they have been a road dog of 3 or less points. TCU faced Lamar over a week ago so they could be a bit rusty. Lamar is not a good team so it is not a big surprised that the Horned Frogs held them to just 50 points. Note that Texas Christian is a long-term 20-40 ATS including a long-term 0-3 ATS in recent seasons when they are off a game in which they allowed 55 points or less. 10* XAVIER |
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12-21-19 | Kentucky v. Ohio State OVER 131.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #737 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 5:15 ET in Las Vegas - I understand the respect for these two defenses as it is certainly deserved. However, in my opinion, not enough respect is being given to how potent these two teams are on the offensive end and I am taking advantage of the low total posted here. The Wildcats have not shot threes well this season but they've certainly done just fine inside the arc on the year. The Buckeyes have shot the ball very well from all over the floor including inside the arc. Both teams have trended under this season but Kentucky is averaging 75.4 points per game game and Ohio State is average 80 points per game. Now I am not expecting those types of point totals here but I am expecting each team to get close to 70 in this one and that would make this ticket a winner! Kentucky has scored 66 points or more in 9 of 10 games this season. Ohio State scored "only" 64 points in their opener but they have since scored 71 points or more in 10 straight games. The last two times the Buckeyes have been a single digit favorite the game has gone over the total. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Ohio State (game played in Las Vegas) |
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12-20-19 | SMU +5 v. Georgia | Top | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #843 Friday 10* Top Play SMU Mustangs (+) @ Georgia Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The Mustangs were 8-0 SU on the season and allowing an average of only 59.6 points per game on the season. They then faced Georgetown in a game in which the Hoyas were hitting everything in sight. It simply did not matter what SMU did, Georgetown was on fire in that game including hitting 14 of 27 three pointers. These types of games happen from time to time. But the point is that Southern Methodist is a great defensive team and they are in bounce back mode here and I am happy to take the points and go against Georgia in this one. The Bulldogs are also off an ugly loss. However, Georgia is a much different team from the Mustangs. The Bulldogs don't focus much on the defensive end. In fact, Georgia has had just two games this season in which they've allowed less than 72 points in game. In their other 7 games they have allowed an average of 80.7 points per game. SMU is allowing just 38.6% from the field this season while the Bulldogs are allowing 45.4% from the field. Also, the Mustangs are the much better team in terms of defending the arc. SMU also shoots the 3-ball better and is much better at the free thrown line (79%) than the Bulldogs (67%). I am going with the defensive-minded road dog in this one. Also, they have only had leading scorer and leading assist man Kendric Davis for the past 5 games. The Bulldogs have been without Amanze Ngumezi for the past two games due to suspension. He is not a star for Georgia but he is a key rotation player. Mustangs getting stronger, Bulldogs getting weaker. Give me the hungry dog. 10* SMU |
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12-19-19 | William & Mary v. St. Joe's +2.5 | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #704 Thursday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (+) vs William & Mary Tribe @ 7 ET - Set-ups don't get much better than this one. Yes the Hawks have struggled this season but the Tribe come into this game over-rated and the situation here strongly favors St Joseph's. The Hawks are off an embarrassing 108 to 61 loss at Temple on the 10th. Looking at that score it seems hard to believe but it is true that St Joseph's had just as many field goal attempts in the game as did the Owls. The problem was that Temple made twice as many shots as the Hawks! That said, after that horrific loss and knowing that this is their only game between the 10th of December and 2nd of January, St Joseph's is going to make the most of this opportunity which is also their only home game in a span of 4 weeks! The Hawks don't want to go into this winter break period on a 9-game losing streak. Yes it has been a rough start to the season for St Joseph's with the coaching change and player losses from last season but they have played a much tougher schedule than William & Mary. The Tribe enter this game off a huge 90-30 win over Goucher. Of course there is a reason you have never heard of Goucher! Overall William & Mary has a great record this season but they entered the season projected to be one of the worst teams in the Colonial Athletic Association and certainly the Atlantic Ten is the tougher conference. Last season these teams met at William & Mary and the Hawks led by 14 at the half but ended up losing a heartbreaker. It is payback time here. Off a home win by a double digit margin the Tribe are just 5-8 SU their last 13 and here they are laying points on the road too. As for the Hawks, they are 4-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or more and also 8-3 SU and ATS when off a road loss by a double digit margin. Bounce back time and payback time for the home team! 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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12-18-19 | Tennessee v. Cincinnati +1.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #660 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - Everyone jumping on Tennessee here as they are a ranked team and coming off a big season plus they enter this game off a loss. Additionally, Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes is in search of his 700th victory. The Bearcats don't want that happening on their home floor and I love home dogs in a spot like this. Look for the Cats to scratch and claw their way to victory in this one. Cincinnati is 4-1 at home this season. Tennessee is playing their first true road game of the season. All the Vols other games were at home or at a neutral site. On the season the Bearcats have faced a tougher schedule and the Volunteers are a highly regarded team but enter this game having lost 2 of 4 and one of the two wins was by the slimmest of margins. I look for UC, off back to back losses including an embarrassing one as a double digit favorite against Colgate, to bounce back strong here on their home floor and get a big win. They returned more starter this season than did the Vols and this is the type of game - especially since they are at home - where I expect Jarron Cumberland to step up and have a huge game. He has struggled in head coach's John Brannen first season with the Cats but watch him come up big at home in a game like this. The Volunteers are on a 1-4 ATS run. I know the Bearcats are on an ugly ATS run too BUT this is still a team that is 18-2 SU in their last 20 home games. I love having them on their home floor as an underdog in a game in which they will absolutely be amped up and ready to go! Off back to back losses, the Cats come out fighting in this one and they do have the size edge in the paint too. They win the front court battles and Cumberland and company come up big on the wings also! 10* CINCINNATI |
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12-17-19 | Florida v. Providence OVER 132.5 | Top | 83-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
TV Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #629 Tuesday 10* OVER the total in Providence Friars vs Florida Gators @ 7 ET @ Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY - Florida is off a long layoff and sometimes that can lead to poorer shooting results with teams. However, the Gators are actually a long-term 12-6 to the over (including 3-1 in recent seasons) when they play a game after having had at least 7 days of rest between games. Look for fresh legs to lead to plenty of points in this one. As for Providence, they do like to play higher-scoring games and they worked off the rust from their layoff by scoring 82 points in a win on Saturday. The Friars are facing a Florida team that is not afraid to D up but note the following: Providence is 3-1 to the over in recent seasons when facing a team that allows an average of 64 points or less per game. Also, Providence is on an ATS losing streak but they are hungry to snap it and will push hard in this contest. That will help the over as the Friars like to push the pace and are 9-3 to the over long-term including a perfect 3-0 to the over in recent seasons when they are on an ATS losing streak of 5 or more games. The over is also a long-term 10-5 including 3-0 in recent seasons when Providence is facing an SEC opponent. The Friars are scoring an average of 75 points per game this season. The Gators are off an ugly effort in which they were held to 62 points in their most recent game but they are still 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games. Also, Florida entered that game having scored 70 points or more in 4 straight games. The Gators have allowed 65 points or more in 3 straight games. The Friars have allowed 75 points or more in 3 straight games. I see this game climbing into the 140s. 10* OVER the total in Providence (game played in Brooklyn, NY) |
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12-16-19 | Marshall v. Morehead State OVER 145 | Top | 89-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #821 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Morehead State Eagles vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Last year these teams met and the total posted on the game was nearly 170. The game ended up totaling only 140 points and was an easy under. However, that meeting was at Marshall and this one is at Morehead State. I expect the Eagles to score much better at home in this one and, in terms of line value, this total is posted at just 145 as of early gameday morning. I know the Eagles are coming off some ugly low-scoring games but they will be a different team at home tonight and after having had a layoff to hit the "reset button" for this one. Their most recent home game was an ugly low-scoring win but prior to that Morehead State had averaged scoring 86 points per game in its first 3 home games. As for Marshall, they tend to score a lot but also allow a lot no matter where they play. It has simply been the way the Thundering Herd are known for playing. They push the tempo and aren't too focused on defense. Marshall has scored an average of 78 points per game in its past 5 games. They allowed a very low point total in their most recent game but that was against a clearly outclassed small college team. Prior to that, the Thundering Herd had allowed 78.4 points per game in its last 7 games. You can see why I am forecasting this game to get well into the 150s. The over is 4-0 in Marshall's last 4 lined games. The Thundering Herd are 17-7 to the over when coming off a blowout home win by a margin of 20 or more points. The over is 22-9 (including 3-0 in recent seasons) when the Eagles enter a game having failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This situation brings out the best in the home team but the Thundering Herd strong scoring ability means these teams are trading buckets all night long. 10* OVER the total in Morehead State |
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12-15-19 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +7.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #804 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - The Buckeyes have been red hot but the Golden Gophers are also a much better team than they showed in their Big Ten opener on the road at Iowa. With this game being at home for Minnesota and with Ohio State possibly being rusty after not playing at all since the 7th, the Golden Gophers could surprise here. Minnesota also has revenge from losing last season at Ohio State and also losing to the Buckeyes in a neutral site game the prior season. The Golden Gophers have played the tougher schedule in comparison with Ohio State early this season. The Buckeyes are 0-3 SU and ATS in a road game with a posted total in the 120s and the fact the odds makers set such a low total here confirms the fact that Minnesota is expected to turn up the heat on defense in their own barn here on Sunday. The Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS when off a road loss in which they were held under 60 points. I know it may seem tough to fade a streak Ohio State team but with a little rust on their part after the layoff coupled with an intense effort from the hungry dog here, I look for this one to go down to the wire! That means we have great value with having the points on our side here. 10* MINNESOTA |
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12-14-19 | Delaware +14.5 v. Villanova | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #763 Saturday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens vs Villanova Wildcats @ 2 ET in the Never Forget Tribute Classic @ Newark, NJ - The Blue Hens entered this season needing to be a much better defensively and they've accomplished that goal. Granted they have faced a light schedule early this season but they had won 9 straight games before finally losing to George Washington last Saturday. Delaware is allowing just 63.3 points per game and holding opponents to 39.5% from the field. Granted, the Fightin' Blue Hens will most certainly have their hands full with a top notch opponent like Villanova but I foresee their solid defense helping to turn this game into a bit of a grinder. The Wildcats are on an 0-5 ATS run and none of those games were decided by more than a dozen points. Even the one decided by 12 points was a deceiving final score as the game was tight in the final minutes before Nova finally pulled away. The team chemistry has been fantastic for the Hens this season and they are excited about this opportunity and view it as a challenge to compete against top level competition. The way Delaware has been playing early this season and the fact they are coming off a loss, I look for a very strong effort from the big dog in this one. The Wildcats get the win but I see it coming by a single digit margin as they have bigger fish to fry. In fact the Cats next game will be against Kansas. This is a "win and move on" type game for Villanova and they are being overvalued by the betting markets here as this line has already moved up from a 13 to a 14.5 in early trading. 10* DELAWARE |
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12-13-19 | Colorado v. Colorado State UNDER 140 | Top | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #676 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Colorado State Rams vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 8 ET - Look for better defense in this one than many are expecting. This is a rivalry match-up. The Rams are a home dog. Don't look for a lot of easy buckets here as Colorado State will have to try to scratch and claw their way to a home win over the superior Buffaloes here. Colorado enters this game off back to back losses but they faced a couple of tough match-ups. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes had started the season a perfect 7-0 and had allowed just 53.8 points per game in the final 6 games of that win streak. Hungry for a win here against their in-state rivals, and coming off back to back losses, look for Colorado to turn up the heat on the defensive end. Colorado State does have a tendency to get involved in higher scoring games but I feel the Buffaloes are not going to allow that to happen. Colorado will be buckling down on defense and note that the Rams, prior to a win in their most recent game, had been held to an average of 60.5 points per game in the back to back games (both losses) that preceded the win at South Dakota State. Also, in 5 of their first 7 home games this season, Colorado State had allowed 65 points or less in regulation time of those games. In fact an OT loss in which New Mexico State scored 18 points in OT certainly skewed their numbers a bit. 11 of Colorado's last 16 games have resulted in an under. In the month of December, Buffaloes games have stayed under in 7 of their last 9. When these two rivals square off, 5 of the last 7 meetings have resulted in an under. Considering all of the above as well as the total having been driven up from the mid-130s to now being in the 140 range, I love the value here with going against the line move on this one. 10* UNDER the total in Colorado State |
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12-11-19 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers -2 | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #636 Wednesday 10* Top Play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - Nice set up here with the Badgers off a huge 20 point win versus Indiana and the Scarlet Knights off a tough loss by a dozen at Michigan State. Note that Wisconsin has been great at home this season but has struggled (0-4 SU) in games played on the road or at a neutral site. This game is being played at Rutgers and that is noteworthy not only because of the Badgers struggles away from Madison, also note that the Scarlet Knights are a perfect 6-0 in home games this season. The home/road dichotomy is too strong to ignore here as we can lay a very small number with Rutgers whom had won 6 of 7 games this season before back to back losses (both on the road). The Badgers had lost 3 straight games before their huge win over the Hoosiers. Last season Wisconsin beat the Scarlet Knights by 5 but they were at home for that game and Rutgers actually led the game by 5 at the half. Now it is payback time for the Scarlet Knights and I expect them to take care of business on their home floor. 10* RUTGERS |
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12-10-19 | St. Joe's v. Temple -12 | Top | 61-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
TV Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #604 Tuesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - The Hawks have been hurt by the loss of Taylor Funk to a hand injury as he was their leading returning scorer for this season. St Joseph's was already considering a "work in progress" for this season before he got hurt and their overall numbers are living up to the sub-par billing. The Hawks enter this game on a 7-game losing streak and each of the last 4 losses have come by at least a dozen points. Ironically that is also what this line has dropped to this morning as Temple has gone from being a 15-point favorite to a 12-point choice. I am backing the favorite here as head coach Aaron McKie has had the Owls firing on all cylinders early this season. That all came to a grinding halt however with a double digit loss to Missouri in Temple's most recent game. The Owls are still 6-2 on the season and their other loss came against Maryland, a highly ranked team. I look for Temple to take advantage of St Joe's being in a down cycle right now and the Owls are in need of a blowout win after losing by 10 to the Tigers even though they favored in the game. It was a rare hiccup for the Owls who entered that game having allowed only 56.7 points per game in their 6 wins this season. That great number in terms of defensive play certainly holds significance here as Temple is facing a St Joseph's team that has allowed 70 points or more in all 10 of their games this season. In fact the Hawks are allowing an average of 80 points per game on the season. The Owls take advantage and win this Big Five game in Philly (part of the annual Philadelphia Big Five battle) in an absolute rout. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-08-19 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 47-56 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #739 Sunday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 4 ET - It looks easy to take the Cavaliers here so, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Tar Heels in this one! Virginia is at home and has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and plus the Cavs are laying a short number here. That will have people looking to line up on the defensive-minded host in this one. However, I am expecting North Carolina to say "enough is enough" and come up with a huge game here. The Tar Heels have faced the tougher schedule early this season so we are getting some line value in this one in that regard. Also, the Cavaliers could have a little bit of unbeaten letdown here as they were 7-0 on the season before getting absolutely demolished by Purdue by 29 points! The Cavs are averaging just 53 points on the season. The Heels are also off an ugly loss in which they did not score well. However, prior to that defeat, UNC had scored 75 points or more in 6 of their first 7 games this season. The Cavaliers are on an 0-6 ATS run and I expect that streak to reach 7 straight ATS losses here in a game in which an outright upset for the revenge-minded road team would certainly not be a surprise. Roy Williams and the Tar Heels are highly motivated here against Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers. I feel that Virginia is going to be caught reeling a bit here and doubting themselves in terms of ability to be able to score enough here. They have always relied on defense but their offense has been a little too ugly this season to get past a team like this. Look for the Tar Heels to get it done here. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-07-19 | Penn State +8 v. Ohio State | Top | 74-106 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #733 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - The Buckeyes are undefeated this season, at home, and ranked very high. All the pressure is on Ohio State here. Also, the Buckeyes are off a huge win over North Carolina on Wednesday night. This is a tough spot for Ohio State now as they take on a Penn State team that very quietly has also been playing a lot of ultra impressive defense and is going to be tough for the Buckeyes to pull away from in this game. Also, the Nittany Lions have been enjoying great success in recent meetings between these teams but did fall just short here last year. That makes this a revenge game for Penn State as they lost to the Buckeyes last season despite taking 16 more shots from the field in that game! It was simply "one of those nights" and yet PSU still lost the game by only 4 points. Look for a similar result here as the scrappy Nittany Lions have a great shot at the outright upset here. If they do fall short expect it only be by a bucket or two. The Buckeyes are on a great ATS run this season but they can't keep hitting the high percentage of shots they have been and the Nittany Lions come into this one having played great defense this season too! 10* PENN STATE |
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12-06-19 | Iowa +8 v. Michigan | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #615 Friday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - Many will be looking for the Wolverines to bounce back here after their ugly 58-43 loss at the hands of Louisville. Indeed a bounce back may be on tap for Michigan here at home but I don't see them covering this large spread. This is a revenge game for Iowa as they lost by 21 points in tournament action against the Wolverines in March. The Hawkeyes were outscored by 27 points from beyond the arc in that game as they made just 1 of 16 three pointers. In other words, inside the arc in that game Iowa actually won the game by 6 points! I am not necessarily forecasting an outright win here but I certainly wouldn't be shocked if the Hawkeyes do catch Michigan suffering from some unbeaten letdown here after the loss to the Cardinals. Iowa is a solid 6-2 SU and ATS this season and they have the talent level and coaching experience edge here to keep up with the highly talented Wolverines. Note that prior to the loss in March, the Hawkeyes had defeated Michigan in the regular season. Prior to that game the Wolverines had been on a winning streak in this series but 2 of the last 3 Iowa losses came by 7 points or less. Michigan is a little over-valued right now because they have hit 40% three pointers this season and opponents have hit only 59% of their free throws this season. Those two stats that certainly won't continue all season long have combined to give extra shading toward Michigan from the betting markets. I'll gladly step in on the other side here and grab the big points with the Hawkeyes. 10* IOWA |
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12-05-19 | Oklahoma v. North Texas +6.5 | Top | 82-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #604 Thursday 10* Top Play North Texas Mean Green (+) vs Oklahoma Sooners @ 8 ET - This game is being played at The Super Pit as North Texas is the host for this one. That is certainly noteworthy as Oklahoma is just 7-16 SU in their last 23 lined road games. The Sooners not only are being asked to win this game but also by a margin of as high as 6.5 points after the early morning line move with this one and I just don't see that happening. I look for the layoff to hurt OU as they haven't played in over a week and the Sooners are just 3-3 SU the past two years when they enter a game with 7 or more days of rest between games. This line is currently settling back in at a -6 and the Sooners are 2-5 ATS in road games in which their line ranges from a pick'em to a -6. The Mean Green are on an 11-2 SU and 9-3 ATS run in December games. North Texas is a scrappy team that plays well together as a unit. In other words, it is not about individual stars but just that they've put together a good combination of players that mesh well together. The fact the Mean Green are just 3-5 SU this season is because of facing a very tough schedule and this situation favors them well. They just knocked off UT-Arlington outright as an underdog Sunday and they carry that momentum from the road on back home for this game. North Texas is on a 28-11 SU run in home games the past 2+ seasons. Look for the Mean Green to improve to 20-10 ATS when off a game in which they were an underdog. Back to back underdog spots and I am expecting back to back outright SU wins but will grab the points here for added insurance. 10* NORTH TEXAS |
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12-04-19 | Pennsylvania v. Villanova -12 | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #808 Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Pennsylvania Quakers @ 6:30 ET - This is part of The Big Five in Philadelphia and the other teams are LaSalle, St Joseph's, and Temple. Last year the Quakers upset the Wildcats and that ended a 25-game winning streak for Villanova in Big Five games. It also allowed Pennsylvania to win the Big Five Championship for the 2018-19 season. These teams come from different conferences, etc but the City of Philadelphia embraces the rivalries the "Big Five" has created and this "unofficial" Big Five city championship series extends back to the mid-fifties! It means a lot to these schools and I look for Villanova to get a big dose of payback on their home floor in this game. Yes the Wildcats have losses to Ohio State and Baylor this season but this is a strong Villanova team that will get even stronger as the season goes on. They were ahead by 20 points against LaSalle at halftime Sunday and then only won the game by 11 points as they allowed the Explorers to make a few runs in the second half. Considering what happened at Penn last season I don't look for the Cats to be so generous in the second half here. Look for Villanova to put their foots on the throats of the Quakers early and never take their foot off the gas. Pennsylvania, an Ivy League school, has a long break from basketball coming up because of semester final exams. However, they still enter this game at a disadvantage as they just got back from a West Coast trip while Nova was already at home facing LaSalle this past weekend. The last time the Wildcats hosted the Quakers they won by 28 points. I am expecting another huge win in this revenge game. Penn is a scrappy and respectable team but there is a talent disparity here and the Wildcats are highly motivated. I don't often lay big points but this is one of the rare exceptions due to the great situational value. 10* VILLANOVA |
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12-03-19 | North Dakota State v. Indiana State OVER 135.5 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #741 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana State Sycamores vs North Dakota State Bison @ 5:30 ET - Both teams weakness is the frontcourt. That means more opportunities for points in the paint with drives to the bucket and also 2nd chance opportunities off the glass on offense. I am well aware of the fact that the Bison have been trending under all season long but that has had a lot to do with the match-ups they faced. Now they go on the road and face a Sycamores team that has been knocking down the 3-ball extremely well this season. Indiana State is hitting 44% of their threes this season. North Dakota State is allowing 37% from beyond the arc on the season. The Sycamores overall defense has been sketchy for sure as opponents are hitting 46% from the field. You can see why I am expecting plenty of points here and I am taking advantage of an early downward line move on this total. It opened up at 138 and is now down to 135.5 as of early game day morning. Indiana State has scored an average of 76 points per game in its last 3 lined games. The Bison have averaged 70 points per game their past 7 games. Each team is capable of reaching double digits in three pointers made in this one and I look for plenty of points with the game also close enough late (line on this game is a -5) to encourage fouls and free throw shooting for the team in the lead with the team playing catch up jacking up (and making plenty of) three pointers! 10* OVER the total in Indiana State |
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12-02-19 | Columbia +6 v. Delaware | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #721 Monday 10* Top Play Columbia Lions (+) @ Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens @ 7 ET - Delaware is off to a fantastic start this season as they remain undefeated at 8-0 SU plus they are at home for this game and hosting a 3-5 Columbia team. However, as per usual, there is more than meets the eye in this game. First off the Lions have played a tougher schedule than the Fightin' Blue Hens have. Additionally, this is a revenge game from last season when Columbia lost in double OT by a single point. Most of the big scoring production for Delaware (3 guys that each scored 20 or more) are gone from the team. That said, even though the Blue Hens are off to a great start this season, this is likely to be a very tough game for them and star point guard Mike Smith and the Lions are off a win and will use that as momentum heading into this revenge game. Smith has been fantastic early this season after an injury greatly impacted last season's campaign. I like having the points here in this revenge match-up as the strength of schedule comes into play here and I feel that it is with a good reasoning from the odds makers that the Blue Hens opened up as only a 6 point choice here even though they are undefeated and facing a team with a losing record. I sense an upset here and if the Lions do fall short it will be by just a bucket or two in my opinion. 10* COLUMBIA |
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12-01-19 | Temple -2 v. Davidson | Top | 66-53 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #693 Sunday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Davidson Wildcats @ 4 ET in Orlando, FL - I used the Owls against Maryland earlier in this tournament and got the cover as Temple nearly got the upset too. The Owls are playing very well under new head coach Aaron McKie this season and they have covered 3 straight games and are 5-1 SU on the season. While Temple has been playing solid defense, the Wildcats are not. The Owls are allowing just 35% from the field this season while Davidson has allowed 46.6% from the field this season. The Wildcats have played a tougher schedule but only slightly more arduous and Temple's defensive numbers certainly aren't "slightly" better, they are much better. Davidson has failed to cover 5 of 7 games this season as they just haven't been able to get it done on the defensive end of the floor in the majority of their games this season. 10* TEMPLE |
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11-30-19 | NC-Greensboro +7 v. Georgetown | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #607 Saturday 10* Top Play UNC Greensboro Spartans (+) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 2 ET - The Spartans have just 2 losses on the season. One w was by a single point and the other was by a dozen points but came against one of the best teams, Kansas, in the nation. UNC Greensboro was down by just 10 with under 4 minutes to go in that game. Thanks to having a fantastic point guard in Miller and playing strong overall defense (something the Hoyas struggle to do), the Spartans absolutely are capable of an upset win here at Georgetown. The Hoyas are allowing 76 points per game this season while Greensboro is allowing just 54 points per game game. Yes Georgetown has played a tougher overall schedule but still there is a big difference between the way these teams tend to play on the defensive end of the floor. The Spartans are off an ATS loss but have not had back to back ATS losses this season. The Hoyas are off back to back covers but had started the season 0-4 ATS. Look for the road team to hang tough in this one all the way through as they have a solid 7-man playing rotation and this is a team that won 25 games last season! Small school, but strong school! 10* UNC GREENSBORO |
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11-29-19 | DePaul v. Minnesota OVER 134 | Top | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #799 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs DePaul Blue Demons @ 3 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Golden Gophers have seen all 6 of their games stay under the total this season. The result, however, is great value here with the over. This total has dropped down to a 134 and Minnesota is hosting a Blue Demons team that has good defensive numbers on the season but has struggled a bit when facing tougher competition. DePaul has allowed 67 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Blue Demons have scored at least 70 points in all 7 of their games this season. DePaul is undefeated on the season but will face a much tougher challenge here. The Golden Gophers have played the tougher schedule this season but come into this game averaging 77 points per game their last 3 games. The key to Minnesota's solid scoring early this season is they are shooting the 3-ball much better than last season. Speaking of hot shooting, DePaul is hitting 50% from the field this season and also doing a solid job from beyond the arc. This match-up features a pair of confident teams that both have been shooting the ball well. I expect plenty of points in this one and will take advantage of the low total posted here. The over is 6-1 when the Gophers are at home and their line ranges from a pick'em to a -6. The over is a perfect 5-0 when the Blue Demons enter a game on an ATS run of 3 or more consecutive covers. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-28-19 | Maryland v. Temple +10 | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #762 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Maryland Terrapins @ 11 AM ET - Both teams are undefeated early this season and certainly the #5 ranked Terrapins are the better overall team. Of course that is why they're a large favorite in this neutral site game played in Florida as part of the Orlando Invitational on this Thanksgiving weekend. Don't be surprised if the Owls give Maryland all they can handle here however. Temple is off a big upset win at USC in which the Owls won by 9 as a 9 point underdog. They are responding well under head coach Aaron McKie. The Philly native was an assistant coach under Fran Dunphy and has this team playing very well early this season. The key is defense and work ethic - on the boards and elsewhere. Even when the Owls are at a size disadvantage (like they were against the Trojans) they are scrappy and work hard to get rebounds and loose balls. Temple is one of the top teams in the nation early this season in steals per game and they are going to challenge Maryland here. Yes the Terps have won all their games by double digits early this season but this will be their toughest test yet. Maryland is on a 2-5 ATS run the last 7 times they have been a neutral court favorite. The Owls got a boost in confidence with their win at Southern Cal last weekend and they are 8-4 ATS when off a road win and also 5-2 ATS when a neutral court underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. 10* TEMPLE |
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11-27-19 | Wichita State +1 v. West Virginia | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #751 Wednesday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8:30 PM ET in Championship Game of Riviera Division in the Cancun Challenge in Mexico - Both teams undefeated on the season but while the Shockers coasted to victory in their win over South Carolina yesterday, the Mountaineers were absolutely pushed to the limit in their win over Northern Iowa yesterday. In fact, West Virginia was actually down 15 points in the second half of that game before they went on a major rally! With under a minute and a half to go the Mountaineers were still down but they ended the game on a 7-0 run to get the win. Wichita State forced 19 turnovers in their win yesterday and completely disrupted the Gamecocks all game long. They will look for similar results here against the Mountaineers. In this tough back to back situation, the Shockers are certainly the more rested team physically based on the way their blowout win played out against South Carolina. While the Shockers have failed to cover just 4 times in their last 13 games, West Virginia has 4 ATS losses in its past 6 games. Situational value here and coach Greg Marshall's team is on a mission in this tourney and they proved that with the way the manhandled the Gamecocks yesterday. This Shockers team currently firing on all cylinders on both ends of the floor. 10* WICHITA STATE |
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11-26-19 | Wichita State v. South Carolina OVER 131.5 | Top | 70-47 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #663 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in South Carolina Gamecocks vs Wichita State Shockers @ 6 ET in Cancun, MX - The odds makers have no idea what they are doing to they set this total at 136 when it opened. Of course I say that in jest as we all know the odds makers are pretty sharp and now that this total has been crushed down to the 131 range as of game day morning it is time to step in on the over. Yes both these teams have some pretty impressive numbers on defense this season but lets not forget that the Shockers are averaging 76.4 points per game and the Gamecocks are averaging 75.4 points per game. I feel we've got good value here after the move on this total. Also, South Carolina has allowed an average of 70 points per game their last 3 games and all 3 of those have resulted in an over. The Gamecocks have scored at least 70 points in 4 of their 5 games this season and Wichita State has scored at least 68 points in all 5 of their games this season. Both teams have a lot of confidence in the offensive end too because that is a direct product of winning games and scoring plenty of points. The Shockers have averaged 82 points per game their last 3 games. The over is 6-2 when Wichita State enters a game on a winning streak of 5 or more games. The over is 16-6 when the Gamecocks play in a game with a posted total in the 130s. 10* OVER the total in South Carolina (game played in Cancun, MX) |
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11-24-19 | Villanova -117 v. Baylor | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #711 Sunday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 5 ET - A lot of line value here. The Wildcats were as high as a -3 favorite earlier but now are dropping to nearly a pick'em range in this game. Keep in mind this is a team that entered the season in the top ten. So what happened then? They lost by 25 points to Ohio State, a ranked team. So now they face another ranked team, Baylor, and many expect another ugly game. I expect the opposite. The young (and VERY talented) Wildcats are well-coached and will take the lessons from the brutal loss to the Buckeyes and put it to good use here. Note that the Bears have played an easier schedule than Villanova early this season and, in their toughest test they lost to Washington as a 6 point favorite. Note that the Wildcats had 62 shots from the field against Ohio State's 50 in that ugly loss. So what happened? The Cats had a rare awful shooting performance while the Buckeyes hit a ridiculous 60% from the field including 64% from three point land. Sometimes crazy results happen and this was certainly one of those instances! We now get to take advantage because coming into the season I had Villanova well within the top ten and I had Baylor unranked. Now we get line value because of the ugly early season loss which actually pays dividends here. Other than the Buckeyes loss the Wildcats have shot great from the field and they'll pull away from Baylor as a result as this game gone on. 10* VILLANOVA |
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11-23-19 | Yale +16 v. Penn State | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #609 Saturday 10* Top Play Yale Bulldogs (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 4 ET - The Bulldogs lost 4 starters coming into this season but they are already exceeding early season expectations. That's because Yale has a strong foundation with its program and guys who were coming off the bench last season are now taking over key roles and they are performing extremely well. The Bulldogs are 3-2 this season and the two losses came at San Francisco and at Oklahoma State. They lost by just 5 as a 4.5 dog to SF and they lost by just 7 as a 13 point dog to OSU. The Bulldogs can hang tough here with Penn State. The Nittany Lions are simply getting a little too much love here from the betting markets. This line opened up at a 14.5 and has risen to a 16 as of this morning. Penn State, of course, is a Big Ten team but they're certainly not the upper echelon of the conference and the Bulldogs are a top team in the Ivy. Now I am not staying Yale wins this game, of course not. I am just saying I believe they will keep this loss in single digit territory just like they did against a tough Cowboys team on the road. The Nittany Lions only tough test so far this season was at Georgetown but the Hoyas are very bad on the defensive end. The Bulldogs will prove to be a stiffer challenge and the rest of the Lions early season schedule has been very light. Grab the big points here. 10* YALE |
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11-22-19 | North Texas v. Rhode Island OVER 126 | Top | 47-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #831 Friday OVER the total in Rhode Island Rams vs North Texas Mean Green @ 4:30 ET in Jamaica Classic Arena in Montego Bay - This total is simply too low. It has been overadjusted downward due to some unusual results for the Mean Green early this season. Keep in mind, both North Texas and Rhode Island averaged about 70 points per game last season. Not much has changed with either program as they head into this season. Now of course this is a neutral site game and that can effect shooting percentages but this is simply an over-adjustment in my opinion. The Rams have scored 70 points or more in 3 of their 4 games this season and they have allowed at least 65 points in all 4 games. North Texas is the team that has had some strange results but that has had a lot to do with the teams they were matched up with. In this one the Mean Green are matched up with a Rams team that is not known for defense nor is it known for playing a plodding style. In other words, we should see a good pace with this game. Even with some grinder games early this season the Mean Green have allowed an average of 60 points per game their last 4 games but they are facing a much different style of play in this one and the results will be reflected on the scoreboard. North Texas will also enjoy a breakout game on offense as they take advantage of more open court in this game (based on the way the Rams play). So we should see some quick transition points in this game and the Mean Green have erupted for 79 or more points twice already this season. North Texas put up 80 in their most recent game and faced a weak foe but still it is a confidence booster for offensive production. Speaking of confidence, the Rams have now averaged 81.5 points per game in their last two games, both victories! Winning leads to confidence which leads to strong play in the offensive end with shots falling! 10* OVER the total Rhode Island (game played in Jamaica) |
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11-21-19 | Duquesne v. Indiana State +7 | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #788 Thursday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (+) vs Duquesne Dukes @ 6:30 ET - Everyone is on the Dukes here so you know where my money is going to go. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and going with the Sycamores here. It stands to reason that everyone is loving laying the number here with a 3-0 Duquesne team against an 0-3 Indiana State team. However, lets not forget that the Sycamores have played a tougher schedule this season. Their most recent game was against a respectable MAC program, Ball State, and the Sycamores two prior games were against Dayton and Louisville! The Dukes have been battling it out with the likes of Princeton, Lamar, and Lipscomb. I feel that the markets aren't properly evaluating that aspect of this match-up and I am looking for Indiana State to view this tourney in the Bahamas as a new beginning. They'll immediately put that 0-3 start in the rear view mirror with full focus on this tournament. Keep in mind the Sycamores were a dog in all 3 of their games to begin this season while Duquesne was a favorite in all three of theirs. Also, both teams returned 4 starters this season. Look for this game to be a battle all the way to the final horn which means we've got great value with the generous points being offered here. 10* INDIANA STATE |
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11-20-19 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Georgia | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Wednesday 10* Top Play Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) @ Georgia Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The very first line on this one was a 3.5 and it is not surprising to see it go to 4.5 as Georgia has the home court edge here and defeated the Yellow Jackets by an average margin of 16 points per game the past two seasons. However, note that Georgia Tech simply shot awful in both of those games as they had 10 more shots from the field in each game and yet they lost the game by a double digit margin each time. This season will be different. I love the fact that both teams come in undefeated but the Bulldogs have played a very weak schedule whereas the Yellow Jackets already showed how their scoring punch and experience and veteran players are going to help lead the way this season. They rallied from a 15 point first half deficit and went on to win in OT as a 5-point dog at NC State to open the season. Then in their easy game they won with defense as they held Elon to just 41 points. Georgia has been a little spoiled as they have opened the season with 3 straight easy opponents and so the Bulldogs, unlike the Yellow Jackets, haven't had to work for many defensive stops. The Bulldogs are allowing an average of 75 points per game this season while the Jackets are holding foes to just 30% from the field in their first two games this season. I expect Georgia to be a much stronger team as the season goes on but early on they will struggle against tougher competition because they returned just 1 starter and are still adjusting to watch coach Tom Crean wants them to do. On the flip side, Georgia Tech coach Josh Pastner has an established group that returned 4 starters from last season's team. In an early season match-up, the edge goes to the Yellow Jackets in this one no matter the venue! 10* GEORGIA TECH |
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11-19-19 | College of Charleston v. Marshall OVER 148 | Top | 76-66 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #635 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Marshall Thundering Herd vs College of Charleston Cougars @ 7 ET - I had the over when Marshall played Notre Dame on Friday. The teams combined for 141 shots from the field but the game stayed under the total. Sometimes stupid things happen. In other words, the pace was absolutely there for an over but the Fighting Irish made only 24 of 76 shots! Even with that horrific shooting effort from ND, the Thundering Herd have allowed an average of 85 points per game their past two games. At home for this one, I expect Marshall to have a much better performance on the offensive end but look for the Herd to continue giving up a lot of points. The College of Charleston comes from the Colonial Athletic Association and that conference has led the nation in offensive efficiency the past two seasons! The Cougars are one of the top teams in the CAA and the only reason their numbers on offense are down a bit early this season is because of their most recent game as they faced a tough match-up with Oklahoma State. Prior to this one, Charleston had averaged 79 points per game in their first two match-ups this season. The Cougars have allowed 76.5 points per game their past two games. The over is 10-3 when Charleston is on the road with a line ranging from a pick'em to a six point favorite. The over is 6-3 when Marshall enters a game having played each of past two games as an underdog. Look for the Thundering Herd to tear it up on the offensive end after back to back tougher match-ups. This one will be a run and gun affair with the Herd shooting better courtesy of playing at home. 10* OVER the total in Marshall |
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11-18-19 | SMU v. Evansville OVER 139 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #609 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Evansville Purple Aces vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - The Purple Aces want to play fast this season and are disruptive on the defensive end of the floor too. They proved that in their monumental upset of #1 Kentucky and Evansville scored 67 points at Rupp Arena in that one which is certainly not easy to do! That said, the Purple Aces can absolutely control the tempo here at home against SMU and that will mean plenty of points here. The Mustangs have big scorers in their playing rotation and will have no problems matching Evansville here in a run and gun game. SMU has averaged 77 points per game this season and the Purple Aces have scored an average of 84 points per game this season in their other two games this season. Both teams are 3-0 on the season and playing with a ton of confidence. Both of these teams are expected to make a move up in their respective conferences this season. That said, I look for this to be a back and forth battle that flies over the total as each of these teams is "feeling it" right now in terms of execution on offense. The Purple Aces are making 50% of their shots from the field at home this season and Southern Methodist is knocking down 47% from the field this season. Look for easy buckets at hot shooting throughout this one with a lot of quick transition buckets as these teams fly up and down the court. 10* OVER the total in Evansville |
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11-17-19 | Marquette v. Wisconsin OVER 128 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #833 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 1 ET - Marquette has given the Badgers D some trouble in recent seasons. That is why the over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, Wisconsin has averaged 75 points per game in the last 3 meetings and plus they are out for revenge after losing each of the last two meetings including one here in Madison. The Badgers have payback on their minds here but they have allowed 40% from three point land this season and the Golden Eagles come into this one knocking down 44% of their shots from beyond the arc. Also, while the Eagles give the Badgers trouble outside the arc on one of the floor look for Wisconsin to give Marquette trouble in the paint on the other end of the floor. The result will be a lot more points than many are expecting here and with the line dropping from 131 to 128 I am grabbing the over in what also should be a close game which means we're seeing plenty of late game opportunity for points with this one with trips to the free throw line while quickly firing up threes on the other end of the floor. The Eagles are 10-3 to the over when off B2B games in which they allowed 55 points or less. The Badgers are 8-3 to the over when off a home blowout win by a margin of 20 or more points. 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Creighton -8 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #796 Saturday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 6 ET - The Bluejays are at home off a loss at Michigan and that was a game that Creighton led at halftime. Louisiana Tech comes from the much weaker conference in this match-up, Conference USA, and the Bulldogs are 2-0 but have not been tested at all. This is going to be a huge test to say the least and it is not easy to play at Creighton where the Bluejays generally show an opponent what is like to be on the wrong end of a game where it is "raining threes". That said, and with this line dropping from an 11 down to an 8, I am backing Creighton big in this one. While the Bluejays play in the tough Big East, Louisiana Tech plays in the CUSA where teams like UTSA are considering among the top teams. There is a talent gap between these programs and the situation is perfect with the Bluejays at home off a loss in a game they let get away from them and the Bulldogs off back to back easy wins but having played light competition. Louisiana Tech gets a significant "reality check" here and the Bluejays answer the "wake up call" after their disappointing loss at Michigan. The home team by double digits here. 10* CREIGHTON |
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11-15-19 | Marshall v. Notre Dame OVER 148 | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #687 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Notre Dame had a tough season opening game as they faced North Carolina. But since then the Fighting Irish have exploded for an average of 85.5 points per game their past two games. The Irish are likely to continue their high-scoring ways here as they take on a Marshall team that just got torched for 96 points by Toledo. The thing I like about that game as the Thundering Herd were down big at halftime but that didn't keep them from pushing the tempo and scoring throughout the 2nd half. We could see a similar result tonight as a big favorite, Notre Dame, gets a sizable lead on the Herd by half-time and then the game plays out very "loose" in the 2nd half too with plenty of scoring from both teams. Marshall has a solid back-court tandem and they each scored 20 in their loss to the Rockets. The Thundering Herd wants to prove that, even though they lost some key contributors from last season's team, that they can still run with the big boys. Well, as the ugly loss to Toledo proved, they may run up and down the floor all they want but they're still going to give up a ton of points in the process and I expect a similar result in this one like we saw in the Rockets game. When off a game in which they were a home underdog, the Thundering Herd are 3-0 to the over. When off a home blowout loss by a margin of 20 or more, Marshall is 7-1 to the over! While the Herd are off an ugly loss, the Irish are off an easy win. That is noteworthy in this spot because the over is 13-6 when the Fighting Irish are off a game which they led by 20 or more points at the half. 10* OVER the total in Notre Dame |
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11-14-19 | Penn State +1 v. Georgetown | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #655 Thursday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Goergetown Hoyas @ 6:30 ET - Both teams have played weak foes early this season so the main basis of this play is that each team came into this season with 4 returning starters and an already established identity. That team identity for each has continued early this season and the biggest key for me is that the Hoyas simply don't play very well in their own end. It was an issue last season too with too many points allowed per game. That is why, though many may look at this and think it is easy to grab the home team just to win the game, the fact is the line is set this way for a reason. Penn State is the better team and that negates the Georgetown homecourt edge. I also like the fact that turnovers tend to plague the Hoyas and this is particularly true in late game situations. They are the sloppier team here and I'll take Chambers' Nitanny Lions over Ewing's Hoyas in this one. The better coached, more well-structured team gets the big road win in an early season match-up when things have a tendency to still be a little "helter skelter" for teams and an experienced structured team is the one that finds the way to win a game like this. 10* PENN STATE |
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11-13-19 | LSU v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 82-84 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #602 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams (-) vs LSU Tigers @ 6 ET - Tigers head coach Will Wade and Rams coach Mike Rhoades were both assistant coaches for Virginia Commonwealth when they made that huge tournament run earlier in this decade. The difference now is that Wade spurned VCU in search of greener pastures while Rhoades stayed put and has proclaimed himself a VCU guy all the way. To say the Rams want this game badly is the understatement of the year. That is why, though LSU had a great season last year and are currently ranked and are an underdog in this match-up, I am going contrarian and grabbing the other side here as I expect the Rams to roll at home. For one thing the motivation factor is huge here and there are VCU players still on the roster that were recruited by Wade during his time here. In addition to motivation. Note that the Rams return 4 starters while LSU returns just two starters this season. Also, the Rams are known for defense and creating turnovers and the Tigers only game this season thus far saw them turn the ball over too much and they were quite unimpressive in their non-covering win over Bowling Green. Another edge for Virginia Commonwealth here is that they have played two games already. Though they have covered neither they did notch the win in each and I feel that, particularly in the win over North Texas this past week, VCU was already looking ahead to this game. This is a monster game for them and they will prove that on the floor by winning this game by double digits. 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (VCU) |
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11-12-19 | Creighton +5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays @ Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - Of course the Wolverines have the home court edge here and they also have a size edge. However, in my mind those are the only edges they have here and it won't be enough for Michigan. I am expecting Creighton to pull of the upset in this one but am grabbing the points for "insurance". The Wolverines are going through a transition in more ways than one this season. They lost a fantastic head coach in John Beilein and now have Juwan Howard at the helm and he brought in two new assistants as well. Additionally, Howard's team lost a ton of talent and big scorers from last seasons team. While they do have a size edge here they did not take good care of the ball in their non-covering win over Appalachian State to open the season last week. A great way to beat size is to create turnovers and then a run and gun team like Creighton can kill you from outside with its sharp-shooters in transition. The Bluejays are already dialed in from downtown as they have made 12 of 25 three pointers in their season-opening win last week. Keep in mind that 3-point shooting also results in longer caroms off the rim when they do miss and that further negates the inside edge that Michigan has in this match-up. I like Creighton a lot here with their strong experience edge and system edge as Bluejays head coach Greg McDermott has been the head coach here for this entire decade. 10* CREIGHTON |
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11-11-19 | Drake +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #731 Monday 10* Top Play Drake Bulldogs (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulldogs will be without Tremell Murhpy this season, this is still a solid Missouri Valley team that is capable of hanging around withing single digits of the Bearcats in this one. Yes, Drake faced an out-classed foe in their season opener but the fact they knocked down 17 of 29 three pointers is a good sign that the Bulldogs shooters are dialed in. Cincinnati is off an opening loss to Ohio State so they faced much tougher competition and that had a little something to do with their 4 of 21 shooting performance from 3-point land. However, the Bearcats struggles with the outside shot could loom large here because you know the Bulldogs are likely to bring an intense effort here with a rare shot at knocking off a "top tier" team. Drake wants to make the most of this opportunity while the Bearcats are simply looking at this game as a "win and move on to bigger things" type of game. Look for the scrappy Bulldogs to keep this one much closer than many are expecting. The Bulldogs are 15-3 ATS off a game in which they were a home favorite. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS when off a road loss. 10* DRAKE |
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11-10-19 | Delaware +3 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 91-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 3:30 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - The Roadrunners were a very streaky team last season. They have lost their first 3 games this season, including back to back games here in the Sunshine Slam and I don't see them turning it around here playing a 3rd game in 3 days. Granted, Delaware is in the same situation in terms of 3 games in 3 days but they are 3-0 on the season and really "feeling it" right now. Conversely, UTSA came into this season knowing their backcourt of Jackson and Wallace were going to be the key. Both have logged heavy minutes in each game the past two days and neither guy is shooting well this season. Both are struggling from beyond the arc too. The trademark of this Fightin' Blue Hens team is defense so, the point is, it is highly unlikely that Jackson and/or Wallace get going to day. Look for the Blue Hens to stay hot here while the Roadrunners continue to struggle as they just can't get their shots to fall right now. Grab the defensive-minded dog here against a Runners team that is very offensively-challenged when Jackson and Wallace are out of sorts and that is certainly the case right now. 10* DELAWARE |
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11-09-19 | Massachusetts -3.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #601 Saturday 10* Top Play Massachusetts Minutemen (-) @ Fairfield Stags @ 1 ET - Fairfield is in a rebuilding mode and will often struggle to score points this season. That factor certainly played a role in their season opening loss to Bucknell and I expect it to also be a factor here. Massachusetts is still in a rebuild mode too but it began last season and their talent level and scoring ability will simply prove to be too much for the Stags in this one. UMass opened their season with win over UMass-Lowell and, though that was expected, the Minutemen were impressive nonetheless as they won by double digits as a 7 point favorite in that one. I was impressed with the Minutemen piling up both steals and blocks in their game against UMass-Lowell so it wasn't all about the offense. That being said Massachusetts did shoot the ball quite well and they now take on a Fairfield team that struggled with its shooting in their opening game. More of the same here in a game in which, in my opinion, the Stags just don't have the talent level to keep up with the Minutemen. 10* MASSACHUSETTS |
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11-08-19 | Oakland v. Delaware +4 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #794 Friday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs Oakland (MI) Golden Grizzlies @ 5 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - Both teams are off easy wins in their season openers as they faced outclassed opponents. Now things toughen up here in the 2nd game of the season for each. This is a neutral site game down in Florida and I like having the points on my side in this one. Yes I am aware of the injury situation for Delaware at the guard spot but their backcourt was a strong point heading into a season and they have enough talent and experience there even if Nate Darling and Ryan Allen are each unable to go in this one. The Golden Grizzlies weakness coming into this season is they lost a lot of talent from last season's team including their starting backcourt. Oakland (MI) is on their way down in the Horizon League at least in terms of falling a few notches while Delaware is on their way up and could finish among the top teams in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. They are preaching defensive intensity on one end of the floor and taking care of the ball on the other end of the floor and the players are a cohesive group that has "bought in" to the system heading into the season. The scrappy Fightin' Blue Hens have a great shot at the win here which means of course I like having a couple buckets on my side of the bet as well. Delaware, when on a neutral floor with their line ranging from a pick'em to a +5.5 has gone 9-4 ATS. Also, when off a game in which they scored 95 points or more, the Fightin' Blue Hens went a perfect 3-0 ATS the past two seasons. They enter this game with plenty of confidence and make for a scrappy underdog. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 SU in their last 4 neutral court games and have struggled in the role of favorite in recent seasons. The past two years Oakland is 13-24 ATS as a favorite. More of the same here. 10* DELAWARE |
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11-06-19 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. Boston College | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Wednesday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) @ Boston College Eagles @ 6 ET - I know the Demon Deacons are off back to back 11-20 seasons and also return just 1 starter this season. However, there is a different feel in Wake Forest this season. This teams has a certain camaraderie and has jelled well in the off-season as they lead into this season opener. Also, this is as much a play against Boston College as it is a play on the Demon Deacons. The Eagles got bad news in September when they found out Wynston Tabbs would be out for the season with injury. Why is this so important? With Tabbs in the lineup last season Boston College went 10-5 and without him they went 4-12! This is a major loss for a team that I have projected to possibly finish dead last in the tough 15-team ACC. While the Eagles are sliding the wrong direction, I would not be surprised to see the Demon Deacons move into the top 10 in the ACC. Despite returning only one starter, Wake Forest does have depth and experience in the backcourt and guard play is critical to early season success. After winning 4 straight meetings, the Demon Deacons have lost back to back meetings with the Eagles and this is the perfect spot for payback at Boston College! Grab the points with the road dog as BC loses for the 7th time in their last 8 ACC games. 10* WAKE FOREST |
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11-05-19 | Louisville v. Miami-FL +6.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Ranked Rout - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #604 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 6:30 ET - Last year's game was tied at 50 about 6 minutes into the 2nd half and that game was at Louisville. The Cardinals then pulled away and won big but there are a couple of key factors that bear mentioning about this. One is that the Hurricanes were short-handed last season due to the David Hernandez ordeal that came out the night before the season started. Another key factor here is that the Cardinals Malik Williams led Louisville that night in rebounds (11) and was second in points (19) and he is out for tonight's game with a foot injury. Thirdly, this game is at Miami and the Cards (ranked #5 in the polls) certainly have a target on their backs right now. Yes the Hurricanes are without Keith Stone but he didn't play in last season's game and the Canes, in a much tougher situation than they are now, put up quite a fight for the majority of that game. Louisville is very talented and is set for a very strong season but the loss of Williams is a significant one. The Canes have much more depth in the frontcourt this season than they did last year and they can make up for Stone's absence here. Also, I really like the Hurricanes backcourt as point guard Chris Lykes is a 5'7 dynamo and Dejan Vasiljevic is a strong shooting guard that tied for the team lead with 19 points in last year's meeting with the Cards. The Italy trip this Miami team made heading into this season also helped the team jell and they come into the new season in a much different frame of mind than last season. Are they at Louisville's level when the Cardinals are 100%? Of course not. But can they win this game at home when the Cards are without Williams? You better believe it and, though they may fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. The value is with the home dog in this one. Louisville drops to 8-13 ATS as a road favorite when in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The Cardinals enter this game on an overall 3-6 ATS run. The Hurricanes are 12-2 SU in their last 14 November games and are ready for a fast start this season. 10* MIAMI |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The Game Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 9:20 PM ET - As I wrote in my analysis that accompanied my selection on the Red Raiders over Michigan State Saturday, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! With their win over the Spartans, the Red Raiders are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games that have had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Cavaliers have been so fortunate in this tournament I feel it comes to an end here. Lightning usually doesn't strike twice but it has for the Cavs. After their lucky win (and insane cover!) over Purdue where they were fortunate the game even went to OT, Virginia dodged another bullet with the insane finish in a win over Auburn. This Red Raiders team won't make the same "end game mistakes" that the Tigers did. First off, when you're ahead by 4 and don't at least get a hand up on a guy shooting a 3 that is their hottest shooter with 20 seconds to go you have made a huge mistake. Then, with a 2 point lead and the clock winding down to the final second you do make a run at a guy shooting a 3 and end up getting your body into him? Players fault or the fault of the coach? Either way you won't see the same mistakes with this Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders have proven to be incredibly focused throughout this tourney and I just don't see them being denied. Look for them to get an early jump on the Cavaliers here and then their stifling defense does the rest as Virginia can't quite climb back! Remember the scoring drought the Cavs had late in the game against Auburn? I mentioned that could be an issue in my write-up (had Tigers plus points over Cavaliers) and the fact is those types of scoring droughts continue to be an issue for this Virginia team. That will eventually be the straw that breaks the camels back as the saying goes. It hasn't happened yet but, like I said above, it is rare enough for lighting to strike twice in same place and even more rare to happen 3 times in a row. The Cavs are a great team don't get me wrong but, so too are the Red Raiders, but the luck the Cavaliers have had to even get here is unreal. Just like when I faded Duke after their insanely tight win, I'll fade Virginia again here as the REd Raiders improve to 12-0 ATS L12 games with a line in single digits. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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04-06-19 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8:50 PM ET - My selection here involving the Spartans game actually has a lot to do with their in-state rival, the Wolverines. Strange, right? But let me explain. First off when the Spartans play Michigan it is a big deal of course. This season, Michigan State faced Michigan 3 times and won 3 hard-fought games. The key? They are 0-3 ATS in their game that followed the Wolverines. How does that relate here? The Spartans are off a very hard-fought win over Duke which they viewed as their road-block to the Championship. In other words, beat the Blue Devils and win it all. Texas Tech may have something to say about that first but before moving along to the Red Raiders, let me finish by saying that the only bigger opponent for Michigan State this season than Michigan was Duke and you could see the huge emotion for the Spartans after that game. Look for another flat performance off such a huge, emotional win. Now comes the other key part of how Michigan ties into this one. The Wolverines had a tremendous team this season and are very well coached. That Michigan team just faced the Red Raiders last week and the Wolverines didn't score their 20th point until they were 5 minutes into the 2nd half! Texas Tech absolutely dominated them and I am not saying they will do the same thing to Michigan State but I am saying the Red Raiders get the upset here. I personally bet the money line on this game but certainly I would recommend you grab the points for added insurance. However, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! The Red Raiders are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games that had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Spartans feel like they won the Championship already after beating Duke while the Red Raiders are still fully focused here and get an early jump on the Spartans here and then their defense does the rest as the Spartans can't quite climb back! 10* TEXAS TECH |
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04-06-19 | Auburn +6 v. Virginia | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #803 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 6:10 ET - You saw what happened to Duke last week. After surviving in essentially miracle fashion, the Blue Devils luck ran out. If there was ever a win (in such a big game) luckier than the one the Cavs just had last week against Purdue I'd like to see it. It was a miracle enough that they won the game as they were very fortunate it even got to OT but what was even more miraculous (or sickening if you were holding a Purdue +4.5 ticket like me) was that they got the cover in OT. The Cavaliers got that cover very late too. In other words, the cover came out of nowhere. Similar to how I faded Duke (with Michigan State) after a miracle win I am doing the same thing here with Auburn over Virginia as this Tigers team is about as dangerous of a team as you can face right now. The fact is that Bruce Pearl's team is really starting to believe in themselves now and confidence is key when you're a three point shooting team. This team lives and dies with the three and they showed me a lot in the win over Kentucky as the Tigers finally had a rougher shooting game with the three ball but were just hot enough at the right times to gut out a win. That makes them very dangerous here. With the time off between games there could be some rust with the outside shooting early and, I would not be surprised if it is the Cavs with the half-time lead but eventually I expect Auburn to be in line for the upset win here. I am grabbing the points as, if they do fall short, I expect it to be by only one or two possessions (at most). Virginia hasn't covered B2B games since early March and the Cavaliers last two covers have only covered by a combined 2 points! The Cavs luck runs out here as Auburn continues playing the "us against the world" them as a #5 seed that continues to surprise. The Tigers are on 12-game winning streak and feel like they can beat anyone. We've seen the Cavaliers offense go through some rough stretches at times. That will prove to be their undoing here as they'll be in a war in the second half just to try to win (let alone cover) this one. 8* AUBURN |
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04-05-19 | South Florida v. DePaul OVER 145 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in DePaul Blue Demons vs South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury situation for the Blue Demons. The following 3 players are listed as questionable for tonight: Devin Gage, Eli Cain, Jaylen Butz. However, not only do I most certainly NOT expect all 3 of those guys to miss tonight's game and a chance to win the CBI Championship on their home floor, note that the other 5 plays (NONE listed on injury report) are the DePaul players that accounted for 90 of their 100 points in Wednesday's OT win! The point is, we still have plenty of potency with this Blue Demons team regardless of those injured players but, again, I do expect at least 1 if not 2 of them to be good to go tonight. Even though Wednesday's game went to OT, they didn't need it to get the over. The teams totaled 164 points in regulation. With this game total opening up at a 147 and dropping to a 145 I love the value we're getting here in this spot. DePaul made only 31.8% of their threes in Game 2 on Wednesday and yet still totaled 100 points! The over is 9-5 this season in games where South Florida is an underdog. The Bulls are 12-6 to the over the last 18 times they've allowed 80 points or more in a game. DePaul is 15-7 to the over in home games this season. Also, the Blue Demons are 11-5 to the over in non-conference games, 9-4 to the over after allowing 80 or more points, and 4-1 to the over when they enter game having failed to cover the spread in each of their 3 prior games. All of those trends are current season trends and they continue here. 10* OVER the total in DePaul |
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04-04-19 | Green Bay v. Marshall OVER 166 | 70-90 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #733 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Marshall Thundering Herd vs Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 7 ET - Tuesday I got burned with the over in Marshall when the Thundering Herd combined with Hampton for plenty of scoring in the first half but then the game died early in the 2nd half and fell well short of the total. As a result of that dismal second half, it comes as no surprise to me that this O/U has dropped tremendously from its earliest opener off shore of 173. We are now seeing as low as 165/166 early game day morning. This is a huge value because Green Bay is a high-scoring team just like the Herd and I expect this game to make up for that ugly 2nd half we saw on Tuesday. The Phoenix have scored an average of 92 points per game their last 4 games. On the season Wisconsin-Green Bay is allowing 84 points per game on the road. Marshall scores an average of 86 points per game in home games. In a championship game, of course, there is no tomorrow. That said, even if a team is down by 8 or 10 points late they'll keep fouling and then jacking up threes and, essentially, playing with a "never say die" attitude. The spread on this game is right around a half dozen points, which is also the perfect spread on a game to expect those type of late "scramble points" should they be necessary. But truly I feel the pace tonight will be conducive to a very high-scoring game regardless of the point gap between these teams in the latter stages. The over is 28-16 long-term (including 12-6 this season) when UWGB is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. The over is a long-term 45-33 when the Thundering Herd play with one day of rest or less between games. 10* OVER the total in Marshall |
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04-04-19 | Lipscomb v. Texas -1 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #728 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (-) vs Lipscomb Bisons @ 7 ET - Hats off to Lipscomb for making it this far but they aren't facing Wichita State tonight. They are facing a Big 12 team that has shown, when it wants to, it can play great basketball on both ends of the floor. The Shockers, inexcusably, blew a late double digit lead against the Bisons on Tuesday. As a result, Lipscomb instead of Wichita State is here tonight and now we can take advantage of the betting markets infatuation with a Bisons team that hails from a conference that is nowhere near the talent level of the Big 12. Teams like Lipscomb can go on tourney runs and look great in doing so but how many times do you remember a team like this hoisting a championship trophy? Maybe for the CIT or CBI Tourney, yes. But when it comes to the Big Dance (NCAA) or the 2nd best tourney in the nation (NIT) you will see from looking at the list of champions they come from bigger conferences than the Atlantic Sun. If this was a smaller tourney like the CBI or CIT I would have some concern about backing the Horns. But on the grand stage of Madison Square Garden, Texas will not be denied here and I love the fact I can get them at -1 this morning. How much difference is there in these two conferences? When the Bisons beat TCU earlier this season in a meaningless non-conference match-up (Horned Frogs would have been much more motivated on a stage like this) that was the FIRST WIN in Lipscomb's last 10 games against a Big 12 team. If TCU was here they would be exacting revenge but that win the Bisons have over the Frogs also only strengthens the fact that Lipscomb has the full attention of the Horns and will be the recipient of the Longhorns "A game" here. Another way to compare these teams: the TOP 5 teams in the Atlantic Sun included North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, and New Jersey Institutional Tech - yes that powerhouse NJIT (tongue in cheek). The TOP 5 teams in the Big 12 - Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa State. This line is roughly a pick'em and I don't see the Longhorns being denied here. They beat them by 23 points last season and the Bisons haven't improved THAT much in one year nor have the Horns fallen THAT much in one year. It was no fluke either as the Horns won the first half by 14 and second half by 9. They dominated the game. I can see Lipscomb putting a scare into Texas and hanging around for awhile but eventually the difference in talent level will be evident and the Longhorns will pull away. 10* TEXAS |
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04-03-19 | South Florida v. DePaul OVER 146 | Top | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #717 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in DePaul Blue Demons vs South Florida Bulls @ 8 ET - Since the CBI is a series, this sets up a classic situation that leads to great line value. The job of the odds makers is to set numbers that balance the action. Now, because Monday's Game 1 of this Best of 3 series ended up being so low scoring down in South Florida they've posted this one a full 5 points below the Monday opener. They had to do it because they know how the markets would have reacted if they had again posted a number north of 150. But the fact is the odds makers are quite sharp and their 151 in Game 1 was posted with full reasoning and logic. That said, the fact the series has now shifted to Chicago is actually MORE conducive to an over and yet the odds makers had to give a lower number. The home team tends to have more impact of controlling the tempo and pace in games and that favored South Florida on Monday and the Bulls are known for relying on their defense to win games. DePaul, on the other hand, pays little attention to defense and loves to run and gun. The Blue Demons are averaging 81 points per game when at home this season and, keep in mind, they've allowed an average of 76 points per game on the season. The over in DePaul home games went 14-7 this season. Also, the Blue Demons are were 10-4 to the over in non-conference games prior to Monday's game staying under the total. Look for the home team to force a much different pace in this game than what we saw Monday. South Florida is on a 14-4 run to the over in Wednesday games. The Bulls, as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, are 4-1 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in DePaul |
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04-02-19 | Hampton v. Marshall OVER 174 | 78-80 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Marshall Thundering Herd vs Hampton Pirates @ 7 ET - Big mistake by the odds makers here, right? Truly this is a huge total when you consider that the Pirates have stayed under in 3 straight games and the Thundering Herd have stayed under in 5 of their last 6 games. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about "mistakes" by odds makers and, in this case, I feel your looking at a game that will get well into the 180s. Keep in mind, Hampton plays at a very fast pace and so too does Marshall. The Pirates aren't going to be able to stop the Thundering Herd and they've allowed an average of 80.6 points per game on the road this season. Note too that those games were against weaker competition than Marshall. The Thundering Herd average 86.4 points per game at home and that has been against stronger competition than Hampton. Look for Marshall to "run and gun" their way to 90 to 100 points in this game and you can see the odds makers have the spread right around 5 in this game and I do expect the Pirates to be "right there with the Herd" throughout this game. The result is plenty of points because, keep in mind, the Thundering Herd aren't big on defense! Marshall allows 81 points per game on the season. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Thundering Herd tournament semi-final games. Hampton is 6-1 to the over in tournament semi-final games. The over is 9-4 in Pirates road games this season. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Marshall |
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04-02-19 | Wichita State -105 v. Lipscomb | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
NIT #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers (-) vs Lipscomb Bisons @ 7 ET - The Bisons have been a great story and they've gotten here thanks to a red hot run with their shooting. However, now they face a Shockers team that can actually play some defense. This is particularly true of Wichita State when they are in "tournament mode" as they have been for quite some time now. The Shockers have held their opponents to 41.9% or less in each of their last 6 games. By comparison, Lipscomb has allowed 48.3% or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Not only that, when comparing strength of schedule, Wichita State of course has faced tougher competition this season than Lipscomb. The Bisons have been a great story for sure to make it all the way to MSG but defense wins championships and that is why the Shockers will prevail in this game and be the team that has a chance to win the NIT Championship on Thursday. 10* WICHITA STATE |
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04-01-19 | DePaul +1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
CBI #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play DePaul Blue Demons (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - This is the first game of the best out of three CBI Championship Series. Most will look at this game and see the team with the overall better record at home and at roughly a pick'em price and just jump all over the host. Of course that is where contrarian viewpoints become so important. There is a reason this game is priced this way. The Blue Demons play in the Big East. The Bulls play in the American Athletic Conference. As a result of that, as well as the way their non-conference schedules were laid out this season, DePaul has played a tougher strength of schedule than South Florida. Of course that is factored into this line but much of the betting market overlooks that and looks at this one as "easy" to take the Bulls on their home floor. Of course, we all know how that typically plays out when something looks "easy". There is nothing easy in this business and that is why I generally maintain a contrarian viewpoint on games. We have plenty of support for a play on DePaul here. South Florida has won 3 straight games but they previously lost 7 of their last 8. Also, the Bulls have been held to 41% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Blue Demons are loaded with confidence right now on the offensive end as they've been shooting lights out. This is particularly true of late but the hot shooting run generally extends all the way back to mid-February. Just as you've seen with Auburn in the Big Dance, when a team gets hot with their shooting they can make a huge run. That is what the Blue Demons have been doing and it continues here. Yes they've been at home so far and now are on the road for this game but the Blue Demons have scored 73 points or more in 5 straight road games! More of the same expected here! 10* DE PAUL |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Rematch Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #691 Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - The Spartans seek revenge for last season's regular season loss to the Blue Devils and, of course, there is much more at stake with this match-up than last season's early season match-up. Michigan State has been dominating of late while the Blue Devils have been just getting by for close wins. What really factors into this is the line value as we're getting 2.5 points as of early Sunday morning and taking a look at Duke's last 14 games as a good sample size reveals a lot. The Blue Devils are 11-3 SU in those 14 games but 5 of the 11 wins have come by 2 or less points. So if you had +2.5 going against the Blue Devils you cashed in about half of their SU wins plus got the outright upset 3 times. Duke, plain and simple, is fortunate to be here. They are on a 3-11 ATS run but continue to attract bets because, well, their Duke! Truly they are a public team and everyone wants to be the #1 seed here and lay a short number. I am expecting an upset however and we've got some great technical support for backing Tom Izzo's team here. Michigan State is 9-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Spartans are also 11-2 ATS when off a game in which they scored 80 points or more. The Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Spartans certainly hold the edge in experience and I look for freshman-laden Duke's luck to run out in this one. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky OVER 140.5 | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #693 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs Auburn Tigers @ 2:20 ET - The way Auburn is red hot from three point land it is very hard not to like the over in this match-up. What is most impressive about the Tigers run is that all this hot shooting has come in games played on a neutral floor. Auburn has shot 35% or better from 3-point land in 8 straight games and each of the last 7 were games played on a neutral floor. Incredibly, the Tigers have shot about 42% from 3-point land in their last 5 games! They will score plenty here against Kentucky but won't be able to stop the Wildcats. Keep in mind, Auburn has allowed an average of 77 points in their last 3 games and the over is a perfect 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 games. Kentucky is off back to back low-scoring games but that had a lot to do with the type of teams they faced. Prior to those two match-ups, the Wildcats had scored an average of 77 points per game in their 3 previous games. Kentucky is averaging 76 points per game on the season and Auburn is averaging 80 points per game on the season. The over is 14-5 this season in Auburn's games with a posted total in the 140s and I love the value here as this total first opened at a 144.5 offshore and is now a 140.5 as of early Sunday morning. The Wildcats averaged 81 points per game in their two games with Auburn this season! 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | 75-80 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #681 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 8:50 ET - This line opened around a 4 and got driven up to a 5 on Virginia. Of course that is not a surprise as the Cavaliers are a #1 seed and the Boilermakers weren't supposed to make it this far. Let me remind everyone about an expression that comes to mind with this match-up "when something looks too good to be true..." and you guys know the rest of the words. The point is that it looks so easy to lay small points with the Cavs here but I am not falling for it. This Purdue team is starting to believe and lets not forget the collapses that Virginia has had in the past. There is a lot of pressure on the Cavaliers here while Purdue - of course not expected to win - can simply come in relaxed and just play their game. There is no pressure on the Boilers here. Keep in mind the Boilermakers, in their last two games, have beaten the defending national champs (and beat them soundly!) and then knocked off one of this season's top teams Thursday! As for the Cavaliers, their average line has been -14 so far in this tournament. Now they finally get tested and remember this team has a great defense but has been known to stall offensively and then that is when upsets happen. The Boilers did not play well defensively against the Vols but had held their first two opponents in the Big Dance to just 30% shooting from the field. Purdue is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Virginia is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. The Boilermakers are 11-0 SU when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points! I expect the upset but am grabbing the points. The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in NCAA Tourney games. 8* PURDUE |
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03-30-19 | Texas Tech v. Gonzaga OVER 137 | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
March Madness Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #684 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:10 ET - The very first total that popped up offshore on this game early Friday morning was 140 and now we're looking at a 137. Yes, I am well aware of the Red Raiders defense but their not stopping this Bulldogs offense. Gonzaga has the most efficient offense in the nation and, unlike what Texas Tech saw with Michigan, these Bulldogs will be on the run in transition. Unlike the Wolverines, the Bulldogs aren't going to allow this game to settle down into a match-up filled with halfcourt sets. Every chance they get Gonzaga will be pushing the pace and I look for plenty of points in this one because you also don't want to count out the Red Raiders offensive production. Texas Tech scored "only" 63 points in the win over the Wolverines but Michigan is one of the toughest teams in the nation to score on. Prior to that, the Red Raiders had scored 70 points or more in 10 straight games! In fact, Texas Tech averaged 79.4 points per game in those 10 games! Gonzaga is averaging 88.2 points per game on the season! The over is 11-2 in Red Raiders Saturday games this season. The over is a long-term 19-8 in Bulldogs neutral court games with a total in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. Both these teams can play some D but take a look at their full season numbers on offense (including shooting percentages) and you can't help but be very impressed. That said, and knowing the Bulldogs plan of attack for this game, this is a generously priced total that we can take advantage of. 10* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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03-29-19 | Auburn +6 v. North Carolina | Top | 97-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
March Madness Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #673 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET - Did you notice yesterday that the lines (compared to seeding) were, as you would expect, very small spreads on the 2 vs 3 match-ups and then, as you would expect, bigger spreads on the 1 vs 4 match-up and 1 vs 12 match-up. That said, why is it that today the biggest seed differential (1 vs 5) has the 3rd smallest spread? Both Michigan State (in a 2 vs 3) and Duke (in a 1 vs 4) have bigger spreads than the North Carolina - Auburn match-up? I'll tell you why. It is because the odds makers are very sharp and they know what their doing here. Don't be fooled by the line. I am expecting a Tigers upset but happy to grab all the points I can get should Auburn fall just short. The fact is that the Tigers live and die with the 3-ball but they have been very hot of late and very consistent and I expect that to be a key to the cover here. Note that Auburn has made 35% or better from 3 point land in 7 straight games. Not only is this all part of an 8-game stretch that has seen the Tigers only be dealt 1 ATS loss, it also holds significance when you look at an interesting not about the Tar Heels. Let's look at North Carolina's last 13 games. UNC went 8-5 ATS in those games. What was the key with the 5 ATS losses? The Tar Heels allowed 35% or better from 3 point land in all 5 ATS defeats! In their 8 ATS wins they held their opponent under 35% in all 8 covers! Now they face an Auburn team that has been red hot from beyond the arc (all on neutral floors too!) and I fully expect the Tigers to give UNC hell from beyond the arc in this one. By the way, North Carolina is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games against SEC opponents. The Tigers are a perfect 3-0 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 160s. Upset alert but grab the points for added insurance. 10* AUBURN |
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03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State -6 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #668 Friday 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) vs LSU Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Spartans are the stronger team defensively and I look for that to key the victory here. Certainly Michigan State has a tremendous experience level under coach Tom Izzo at this level. The Spartans are off a strong defensive effort and note that they are a perfect 14-0 SU (11-3 ATS) when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less this season. If Michigan State takes that record to 15-0 SU an ATS cover is likely to be the result as well since LSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 SU losses. That's right, the only Tigers cover in a SU loss this season was 4 months ago in late November. Note that LSU enters this game on an 0-3 ATS run. Also, the Tigers are on a 5-11 ATS run in all tournament games. LSU is averaging 81 points per game this season but the Spartans are a superb 9-3 ATS (10-2 SU) this season in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. 8* MICHIGAN STATE |
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03-28-19 | Purdue +2 v. Tennessee | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #651 Thursday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 7:30 PM ET - A lot of people will be looking at Tennessee here after getting burned by them against Iowa. However, the fact is the Vols are fortunate to even be here after managing to gut out a win in overtime. Had the Hawkeyes managed to get that timeout called right near the end of regulation the Volunteers could have been knocked out of the tourney after blowing that massive lead. The fact is the Vols go from facing one tough Big Ten team to facing an even tougher team! Purdue faced Iowa once this season and knocked them off by double digits. The Boilers have been playing fantastic on the defensive end in this tournament and, going further back, have held 7 of their last 10 opponents under 40% from the field. In fact only one of those 10 teams shot better than 42.9% from the field. As for the Vols D, they entered the Iowa game having allowed 44.6% or more from the field in 4 of their 5 prior games. That said, though their full game numbers against the Hawkeyes look solid, the Volunteers were in full scramble mode trying to contain Iowa in what was a massive 2nd half beatdown. Truly an inexcusable performance when you're supposed to be one of the best teams in the nation. That said, just watch what happens now when the Volunteers face an even tougher opponent! The Vols are 4-9 ATS their last 13 games for a reason - they are over-rated! The Boilers are peaking at the right time and I fully expect them to improve to 6-2 ATS their last 8 games with another W here. Long-term Tennessee is on an 8-21 ATS run when their line ranges from a pick'em to a -3 on a neutral court. The Boilermakers are on a 26-14 ATS run in non-conference games and continue to be under-valued by the betting markets. 8* PURDUE |
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03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga OVER 146.5 | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #655 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:10 ET - These teams each have big frontcourts and that gives them a solid line of defense in the paint. However, don't underestimate the potency of each one of these offenses and also don't forget the big points they've given up in similar match-ups. Yes I know last season's match-up stayed well under the total but now this season's total posted for this game has been adjusted below that one even though one could easily make a case for this game being much higher scoring. Note that Gonzaga is ranked as the most efficient offense in the nation and they are averaging 88.6 points per game on the season. However, also note that the Bulldogs faced two ACC opponents this season (NC and Duke) and they allowed an average of 95 points per game in those two games! As for Florida State, they are surging with confidence in the offensive end after putting up 90 in their 2nd round win. On the defensive end though lets look at how they fared against Duke (twice) and North Carolina. The Seminoles allowed an average of 77 points per game in their 3 meetings with those powerful offenses. Based on the above you can see why plenty of points are likely in this one! Also, in games with a posted total of 144 or more, the Bulldogs are 4-1 to the over their last 5. Florida State has gone over the total in each of their NCAA Tourney games thus far and Zags games against ACC teams both flew over the total this season. 10* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul OVER 162.5 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in DePaul Blue Demons vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 8 ET - The over is a PERFECT 6-0 in the Blue Demons last 6 games. DePaul has allowed an average of 87 points per game in its last 4 games. Coastal Carolina enters this game having scored an average of 95 points per game in its last 2 games. You can see why we should expect plenty of points here as the Chanticleers are hot in the offensive end and the Blue Demons are about the furthest thing from a defensive-minded team. DePaul relies on quick-strike scoring to beat teams and they will simply look to run and gun their way past Coastal Carolina. Of course the Blue Demons have played a tougher schedule than the Chanticleers and that is why I expect DePaul to enjoy plenty of success in the offensive end. I just don't foresee the Blue Demons as being able to stop Coastal Carolina in this one and we should see a wildly high-scoring affair. DePaul has averaged 90.3 points per game in its last 6 games. The Chanticleers have allowed an average of 81 points per game in their last 10 games. The over is a long-term 4-1 in Coastal Carolina semi-final games in tournaments. The over is 13-7 in Blue Demons home games this season and I look for their overall streak with totals to make it 7 in a row on Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in DePaul |
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03-26-19 | Creighton +4 v. TCU | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - I am happy to challenge TCU here. The Horned Frogs have struggled in the biggest of games this season. TCU went a combined 0-7 against Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Kansas this season. The Horned Frogs enter this game off back to back wins and covers but they entered the NIT Tournament on a 3-11 ATS run. As for the Bluejays, they are peaking at the right time. With each win the confidence grows and Creighton enters this game having won 7 of their last 8 games both SU and ATS. Also, the lone loss during that stretch came by just 2 points and would be an ATS win based on the current number posted on this game. By the way, that number has grown too and I like fading the masses. The earliest number on this game had TCU at "just" a -3 so, of course, everyone jumped on the Horned Frogs at a small number on their home floor and drove the line to as high as a -4.5 in some spots. Creighton has a rest edge here as they have had 3 days off prior to this game while the Horned Frogs will be playing this game with just one day of rest. Note that TCU is a poor 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they've played a game with 1 day or less of rest between games. Give me the points with the rested team rolling with confidence right now. 10* CREIGHTON |
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03-26-19 | Wichita State v. Indiana OVER 137.5 | 73-63 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Indiana Hoosiers vs Wichita State Shockers @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from a 140 to a 137.5 and I like the value we're getting here now with the over. Even though Indiana's Romeo Langford is likely to miss again, the Hoosiers haven't had him in the first two games of the NIT Tournament either. That said, other than a slow start versus Arkansas Saturday, the Indiana offense has been functioning just fine without Langford. Though the game against the Razorbacks stayed under the total, the Hoosiers entered that match-up on a 6-1 run to the over their last 7 games. The Hoosiers had averaged 86 points per game in their 4 prior games and the same way they eventually broke down the Hogs press Saturday, Indiana will find a way to break through against Wichita State. The Hoosiers know they can't afford to let this get into a half-court grinder slow-paced game with the Shockers. Look for Indiana try to get a huge early jump and run them right out of the building with a trip to the NIT Final Four on the line! This is, of course, the final home game for the Hoosiers and they'll make the most of it but I look for their defense to struggle to slow down a Shockers team that is playing its best basketball of the season at the right time. Wichita State is off back to back road wins and, prior to scoring just 63 points at Clemson, the Shockers had scored 72 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games! Prior to the game against the Tigers staying under the total, Wichita State was on a 3-0 run to the over. The Shockers just played on Sunday and the over is 4-1 this season when Wichita State is playing with one day or less of rest between games. Also, the over is a long-term 9-4 in Shockers NIT games. As for the Hoosiers, the over is 4-1 this season when they are off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. 8* OVER the total in Indiana |
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03-25-19 | Coastal Carolina v. West Virginia -9 | 109-91 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #606 Monday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7 ET - Coastal Carolina has the better record on the season but West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule. The Mountaineers are a fantastic 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. West Virginia is also 9-3 ATS in a home game where the total is 155 to 159.5 points. The Chanticleers are 0-7 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Coastal Carolina is 1-3 ATS in a road game where the total is 155 to 159.5 points. The Chanticleers enters this game on an overall 3-8 ATS run and have shot the ball poorly in 3 straight games. That is unlikely to improve in a road game at West Virginia! The Mountaineers are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home games and the average margin of victory was a dozen points even though they were a dog in 2 of the 3 games! Home blowout here. 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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03-25-19 | Utah Valley +2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Monday 10* Top Play Utah Valley Wolverines (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - The Auburn Tigers are in the Sweet 16 in the Big Dance. What does that have to do with this play? Plenty! The Tigers barely survived their first round game when they beat the New Mexico State Aggies by just a single point. That is the same Aggies team that finished ahead of Utah Valley in the WAC this season. The Wolverines faced New Mexico State twice this season and lost to them by an average margin of just 6 points. Had the Aggies got by Auburn it might be New Mexico State in the Sweet 16 and the point is that Utah Valley - a team many may not follow that closely - is actually a quality basketball program. Look for the Wolverines to upset the Bulls here. South Florida barely survived Stony Brook to get to this point. Prior to that win, the Bulls had lost 7 of their 8 prior games. They've been on a late season fade and Utah Valley's strength of schedule is NOT that much different from USF on the season. That said, the fact that the Wolverines are 24-6 in their last 30 games and the Bulls are 2-7 in their last 9 games means plenty! 10* UTAH VALLEY |
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03-24-19 | Ohio State v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #871 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8:40 ET - The odds makers, fully unaware that the Cougars are a strong defensive team, put the first number on the total in this game at 134. Of course I am joking but I do think many will still feel this total is too high even though it has dropped to a 132 now. The fact is the odds makers are sharper than many people give them credit for. Of course Houston has a strong defense but Ohio State is use to a banging and bruising style in the Big Ten and the Cougars are too smart to let this game turn into a half-course snooze fest. Houston's best bet is to be quick and not allow the Buckeyes to get comfortable playing their typical style. That said, Ohio State is going to get their fair share of points here but they won't be able to stop Houston either. The Buckeyes had a poor shooting effort but snuck by Iowa State in the first round. Note that Ohio State had averaged scoring 72 points per game in their 3 games prior to facing the Cyclones and all 3 of those went over the total. The Cougars are on an under streak right now but they scored 84 points in their first round game and that means Houston has now scored 84 points or more in 6 of their last 10 games. The Cougars averaged 76 points per game this season. Many people talk about their defensive play but also fail to realize how efficient their offense is too. This one will see both teams get to 70 in my opinion. The over is a long-term 25-15 in Buckeyes NCAA Tourney games. The under in the 1st round was their first under in 4 neutral court games this season. The Cougars are 6-3 to the over in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 134.5 points. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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03-24-19 | Buffalo +4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #869 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:10 ET - The Bulls are a #6 seed for a reason. Yes they come from the MAC but no one in the MAC was anywhere close to their level this season. They were the top team in the conference by a huge margin and that truly puts them at a level of being able to compete with any team in the nation in my opinion. Buffalo is deep and loaded with scoring depth and experience. That is the type of team that can challenge a solid defense like the Red Raiders have. That said, and with this line climbing from +3 to a +4, I am happy to grab the underdog value here with Buffalo. Note that the Bulls are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. Long-term Buffalo also has some impressive technical support here as the Bulls are 10-1 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. The Red Raiders are 0-3 ATS (and SU!) in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. Certainly I respect the Texas Tech defense but will they have enough offense to keep up with a Bulls team that has a very balanced attack on offense? I don't think so as I know that the Red Raiders have been scoring much better for an extended stretch now but they've also faced some match-ups that were very favorable for them and this one does not fall into that category in my opinion. I am expecting the upset here but will grab the points for added insurance should the Bulls fall just short. 10* BUFFALO |
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03-24-19 | Iowa +8.5 v. Tennessee | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Sunday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 12:10 ET - As I mentioned in my write-up Friday when I had Iowa over Cincinnati, the Hawkeyes entered the Big Dance having lost 5 of their last 6 games SU and also on a 1-9 ATS run. However, the NCAA Tournament can be a "season" in and of its own and is like a fresh start. Certainly Iowa has a renewed feeling after upsetting the Bearcats in the first round and, keep in mind, they only recently got coach Fran McCaffery back after a couple of the late season losses in their slump had a little something to do with McCaffery's absence due to a suspension. The Hawkeyes shot lights out in the 2nd half of their Friday game and that was against a Cincinnati defense that is known for being tougher than this Volunteers defense. Certainly Tennessee is likely to score well in this game but I don't see them stopping Iowa. The Vols have been horrible at defending the arc particularly when away from home as they've allowed 39% three pointers on the season. In the last 5 games alone (including an unimpressive win over a Colgate team they should have dominated), the Volunteers have allowed 36% or better from three point land in all 5 games. Also, the Vols allowed an average of 78.4 points per game in those five games. This total is in the mid 150s and Tennessee has been giving up plenty of points and Iowa averages 78.3 points on the season. In other words a 78-77 type game decided on the final possession would truly not be much of a surprise. Even if the Vols manage to get a sizable lead in this game, the Hawkeyes potent scoring attack means the backdoor will be left wide open for a cover as the Vols continue to struggle rotating properly and getting off screens on outside shots. The Hawkeyes are 11-5 ATS in neutral court games including 5-1 ATS this season while the Volunteers are an unprofitable 10-9 SU and ATS last 19 games on a neutral court. 8* IOWA |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 9 ET - Everyone is gunning for the national champions of course and it does make sense that the higher seed in this match-up would be the favorite. However, the result for us simply means exceptional line value. The defending champion Wildcats have been an underdog 5 times this season. The result has been a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in those games with 3 outright upsets. As for Purdue, they are a long-term 6-11 ATS in neutral court games where they are favored in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the most recent seasons in that role have seen the Boilermakers go 0-3 and two of the three losses were outright upsets which is what I am expecting here. Though Nova lost some key players from last season's team, they certainly are not without veteran leadership. Also, the Wildcats Jay Wright is absolutely one of the top coaches in the nation. This is a tough team to beat let alone beat by a couple buckets. Over the past 5 weeks Villanova hasn't been covering many of their games and this has resulted in diminished perception in the marketplace when it comes to the Wildcats. That leads to value in a spot like this because the Cats still have won 6 of their last 7 games SU and seem to be getting hot again at the perfect time. Purdue has not been shooting the ball well of late and they had lost 2 of 3 prior to knocking off an Old Dominion team that simply had a horrific shooting performance in their match-up Thursday. Also, the Boilers are on an 0-4 ATS run the last 4 times they've been a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Their struggles in that role continue here and I expect the upset but am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-23-19 | Murray State v. Florida State -4.5 | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #840 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Murray State Racers @ 6:10 ET - The Racers are getting some love from the betting public after their big win over Marquette Thursday. However, the Golden Eagles don't have near the defensive capability that the Seminoles do. Look for Florida State's size and length to cause some issues for Murray State in this one. This line opened up as high as a 6 and has dropped to a 4.5 and there is great value here with laying a small number on FSU. The Seminoles have seen 25 of their 28 wins come by a margin of at least 5 points. In other words, if you expect the Noles to win this game, you can also can expect a high-percentage chance at covering the rather small number in this one. As for the Racers, they only have 4 SU losses on the season but all 4 came by at least a margin of 5 points. As you would expect given the different conferences these schools call home, Florida State has played a much tougher schedule than has Murray State. Also, the Racers are 2-7 ATS in a neutral court game with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. The Seminoles, unlike the Golden Eagles, do have the defenders needed to slow down Murray State's Ja Morant. That is a big key as to why this one will play out much differently for the Racers than their match-up with Marquette did. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-23-19 | Wofford v. Kentucky -5 | 56-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #844 Saturday 8* Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Wofford Terriers @ 2:40 ET - The Terriers have won 22 straight games and are on a 13-1 ATS run. The betting public is well aware of that and is known for falling in love with the upstart underdog teams in the Big Dance. This has led to tremendously strong line value here on Kentucky. Yes it is the Wildcats first Big Dance for the young starters but their talent level is much greater than that of Wofford. Think about who the Terriers have played throughout this season and then think about all the quality teams that the Wildcats have gone toe to toe with throughout this season. Getting the Cats at a -5 here is an absolute bargain. Wofford actually only led Seton Hall by 1 point with under 5 minutes to go in their win over the Pirates. Certainly the Terriers deserve credit for their huge win and the fact that they close the game on a 17-2 run. However, the point is that this kind of late game run isn't happening here. This is not Seton Hall, this is a basketball program that is annually one of the best in the country. I can foresee Wofford hanging around in this one for awhile but eventually the talent of Kentucky takes over in this one. In non-conference action this season the Terriers did face some tougher teams. However, other than an upset win over South Carolina, note that Wofford lost to Mississippi State, North Carolina, Kansas, and Oklahoma. All 4 of those losses came by double digits. There is no reason to expect anything different here despite the betting markets current love affair with Wofford. 8* KENTUCKY |
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03-23-19 | Maryland +3 v. LSU | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #841 Saturday 8* Maryland Terrapins (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 12:10 ET - Both teams are off non-covering wins in the first round. For the Terrapins that makes them 1-4 ATS their last 5 games. On the season, when Maryland has entered a game having failed to cover the spread in 4 of their 5 prior games, they've covered their next game every single time. This will be the fourth such occurrence this season and I expect their record in this situation to improve to 4-0 ATS. As for the Tigers, they are now an ugly 5-9 ATS in neutral court games since the start of the 2016-17 season. Going further back, and specific to neutral court games where their line has ranged from a pick'em to a -3, LSU is a poor 6-10 ATS. In terms of a statistical analysis here, the Terrapins are the much better defensively and they also shoot the 3-ball better. I am expecting an upset but happy to grab the points being offered. 8* MARYLAND |
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03-22-19 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
1st Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #813 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 9:50 ET - Having Kaleb Wesson back is a key for the Buckeyes and had he not had foul trouble and been limited to just 16 minutes versus Michigan State who knows how that eventual 7 point loss might have turned out. Keep in mind Wesson missed the final 3 games of the regular season and all 3 of those were losses. Certainly Wesson is an important player for Ohio State and he entered the Spartans game having scored 17 points or more in 3 of his 4 prior games. Also, Wesson had notched 5 steals, 7 assists, and 4 blocks in his 2 prior games. In his 5 prior games he had averaged 9.8 rebounds per game! The Buckeyes are 6-0 all time against the Cyclones and while I certainly respect Iowa State, did they use up all their magic in the feverish run through the Big 12 tourney? The fact is the Cyclones entered the tournament having lost 6 of their 8 prior games. I feel we're getting great line value here with the sizable points being offered to Ohio State. Iowa State is on an 0-4 ATS run in games with a posted total between 132 and 142 points. The Buckeyes physical style could take the Cyclones out of their game and Iowa State certainly is not known for their defense either so if their shots aren't falling on the other end they're in trouble here! We're getting line value here with Ohio State because they have an ugly ATS record on the season including a poor late season run at the betting window. Take advantage of the value with a team that is built well for some tournament upsets! 10* OHIO STATE |
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03-22-19 | North Dakota State v. Duke OVER 148.5 | Top | 62-85 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
1st Round Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #797 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs North Dakota State Bison @ 7:10 ET - The Bison are known for their hot shooting ability but they also are horrible defensively. I expect that to lead to plenty of points in this one. North Dakota State is now 6-2 to the over this season in neutral site games after their game versus North Carolina Central on Wednesday easily went over the total. The Bison have scored an average of 79 points per game in their 8 neutral site games this season. ND St has shot better than 40% from three point land in EACH of their last four games. The way I see this game playing out is that Duke will score a ton of points and get out to a huge lead and then will be able to relax defensively. This will open up the scoring for the Bison in "garbage time" as this game goes on. North Dakota State has proven all season long they have sharpshooters and that will help send this one over the total because Duke might get to triple digits on their own in this one! The over is 4-1 in Bison NCAA Tournament games. The Blue Devils are a long-term 16-10 to the over in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, just two of Duke's last 6 NCAA Tournament games have resulted in an under. The Blue Devils averaged 88 points per game this season in games where they were favored by 13 or more points. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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03-22-19 | Oregon +2 v. Wisconsin | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #825 Friday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 4:30 ET - This is another 12 through 5 match-up where even the odds makers are telling you an upset would not be a surprise. Yesterday we saw Murray State upset Marquette and New Mexico State very nearly upset Auburn. The Aggies 1 point loss to the Tigers easily got them the cover. Look for another ATS win here for a #12 seed and I expect another Wisconsin team to go down just like the Golden Eagles did against the Racers yesterday. Just a few days ago the Ducks were a 1.5 point favorite in this match-up and now they are a 2-point dog. As I so often do, I am going against the line move here and taking advantage of the value on the other side. The Badgers are led by front court star Ethan Happ but there are two issues with that in this match-up. First off, Oregon starts a point guard an then 4 guys all with height and this includes plenty of length and athleticism. They will be able to frustrate Happ to a degree. The other issue with the big man is he can't hit free throws as he is below 50% from the charity stripe. I respect the Badgers and their coach and their solid defense. But the Ducks, led by coach Dana Altman, also certainly deserve a ton of respect here and they are the much hotter team and, in my opinion, also match-up very well in what is expected to be a defensive-minded low-scoring battle. The Ducks are hot at the right time as they've won 8 straight both SU and ATS! The Badgers are a long-term 5-14 ATS in neutral court games where their line ranges from pick to a -3 and that includes 0-3 SU and ATS in recent seasons. Ride the hot Ducks! 8* OREGON |
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03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4 | 70-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #828 Friday 8* Kansas State Wildcats (-) vs Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 2 ET - This line was as high as a 5.5 and is now as low as a 4 as of game day morning. I am happy to lay this number with the much superior and more battle-tested team. As you would expect, Kansas State has played a much tougher schedule than Cal-Irvine has. Also, the Catamounts come of out of the Big West and certainly won't surprise the Wildcats as they just saw them last season in November. The Cats demolished the Anteaters by a margin of 22 points. Most importantly was how consistent Kansas State was in the victory. They led at half by 13 and then won the second half by 9 points too. UC-Irvine is a popular choice for an upset here because they have a great record this season and enter the tourney on a huge long-term SU winning streak. However, those backing the Anteaters on the merits of those two factors are overlooking the difference in level of competition these two programs face. The numbers support that importance too as Cal-Irvine is a long-term 0-7 SU and 1-5 ATS in games against Big 12 opponents! UC Irvine is known for their defense but Kansas State can certainly play some D as well! Note that the Anteaters are just 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've faced a team allowing 64 points or less per game. As for the Wildcats, they are 3-1 ATS when facing a team that is allowing 64 points or less per game. Also, the Cats are 10-4 ATS L14 games against teams with a winning record while Cal-Irvine went a modest 6-6 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. 8* KANSAS STATE |
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03-22-19 | Iowa +5 v. Cincinnati | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #805 Friday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 12:15 ET - The Hawkeyes enter the Big Dance having lost 5 of their last 6 games SU and also on a 1-9 ATS run. However, the NCAA Tournament can be a "season" in and of its own and is like a fresh start. Post-season tournaments are also known not to go well under Mick Cronin at Cincinnati. I give Iowa a big coaching edge with Fran McCaffery and, keep in mind, he missed a couple of those late season Hawkeyes losses due to a suspension. The Bearcats finally got past Houston in the AAC Tournament and I won't be surprised if they now fall flat after that highly coveted win over the Cougars. Yes, this game is being played "close to home" for Cincinnati but the line opened up at a 3 with good reason and now that is moving to as high as a 5 in some spots, it is "go time" with the underdog Hawkeyes. The Bearcats are on a 4-11 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Iowa went 7-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 5.5 points or less and all 7 wins were outright upsets. I expect another upset win here but am grabbing the points with the Hawkeyes for "insurance" in this one should they fall just short. 8* IOWA |
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03-21-19 | Florida v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #778 Thursday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Florida Gators @ 6:50 ET - The Gators are a popular choice for many due to having faced the tougher schedule this season since they come from the SEC. In typical contrarian fashion for me I am backing the Wolf Pack in this spot! The fact is that Nevada is a high-quality team and their weakness (depth/bench) won't be an issue here since they've had plenty of time off leading into this game. In fact, the Wolf Pack are 14-0 SU (11-2-1 ATS) the last 14 times they've entered a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. While Nevada has played an easier schedule than Florida one has to give them credit for their consistency and this Wolf Pack team has veteran players and Big Dance experience. They certainly won't be "star struck" by facing an SEC team on this stage. The Wolf Pack had one inexcusable performance (a loss to New Mexico) this season. Their other losses were to Utah State (28 wins) and San Diego State (21 wins). The Aztecs actually took 2 out of 3 from the Wolf Pack but Nevada's two losses to San Diego State were both by single digits while their win was by 28 points! Similarly, the Wolf Pack lost to the Aggies by just 5 points but their win over them came by 23 points! Nevada averages 80.7 points a game and certainly the Gators are an offensively challenged team. This game may be tight for awhile but eventually the Wolf Pack pull away and, with a small line on this game, that should translate to an easy cover. Florida is 6-18 SU (and 8-16 ATS) the last 24 times they've been an underdog. The Wolf Pack are 11-0 SU (and 8-2-1 ATS) when off a conference loss. 10* NEVADA |
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03-21-19 | Northeastern v. Kansas OVER 143 | Top | 53-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #783 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Northeastern Huskies @ 4 ET - The Huskies live and die with the 3-ball but it looks like that should set them up very well in this game. Northeastern knocked down an incredible 40% of their three pointers this season in road games! Kansas allowed a whopping 37.4% from beyond the arc in their road games this season. In other words, the Huskies should do some damage with their outside shooting in this game. The key to the value with the over here is that, while Northeastern should score plenty, they will struggle to stop a high-power Kansas attack that was one of the top scoring teams in the Big 12. The Jayhawks went 9-3 to the over in non-conference games this season. Also, Kansas is 7-2 to the over the past two seasons in NCAA Tournament games! Overall, Jayhawks games played in the month of March on a 15-6 run to the over. The Huskies are 11-6 to the over this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Northeastern is 8-4 to the over in non-conference games this season. Huskies have allowed 46% shooting to their opponents on the season. Plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in Kansas |
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03-21-19 | Vermont v. Florida State -8.5 | 69-76 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #764 Thursday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Vermont Catamounts @ 2 ET - This line was as high as an 11.5 and is now as low as an 8.5 as of game day morning. I am happy to lay this number with the much superior and more battle-tested team. As you would expect, FSU has played a much tougher schedule than Vermont has. Also, the Catamounts come of out of the America East and have the full attention of the Seminoles after UMBC upset Virginia in last year's tournament. Vermont is getting a lot of positive play here from the betting markets as a result but lets not forget this team lost 4 of its top 7 scorers from last season. Now they're only getting single digits against an FSU team that reached the Elite Eight last season and knocked off top-seeded Gonzaga by a 15-point margin as part of their run. The Seminoles are loaded with talent and have great length and athleticism. The Catamounts simply don't match up well here and are not as experienced as last season's team. Florida State takes advantage. The Noles are 15-5 ATS the past few seasons, including 7-1 ATS this season, when facing a team that allows 64 points or less per game. Vermont is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Catamounts are a long-term 1-3 ATS when they are a neutral court underdog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-21-19 | Minnesota +5.5 v. Louisville | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #773 Thursday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 12:15 ET - What is fresh in the minds of many is the blowout loss that Minnesota suffered against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. However, the Golden Gophers had won 4 of their 5 prior games. As for Louisville, they enter this match-up having won just 3 of their past 10 games. Also, even if the Cardinals find a way to win this game it is tough to cover spreads when you're not shooting the ball well. Louisville has been held to 41.7% or less from the field in 8 of their last 9 games. The Cardinals were held to 35.2% or less in 4 of those 8 games! Look for Minnesota to be a very "live dog" here and note that each of the aforementioned 4 wins did come when the Golden Gophers were an underdog. In fact, Minny has been a dog in 8 straight games and 12 of their last 13 so it is role they are certainly use to. Of course there is also the entire "Pitino Connection" that surrounds this match-up as well. Certainly the added motivation for the Golden Gophers only helps our cause here and, about that ugly loss to the Wolverines last week, note that Minny is 8-4 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Look for Louisville to drop to 5-10 ATS their last 15 neutral court games. 8* MINNESOTA |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
First Four Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9:10 ET - Long-term the Sun Devils are 5-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in games against teams from the Big East Conference. Also, the Pac-12 certainly was not overly impressive this season. Arizona State finished the season stronger than St John's did as the Sun Devils won 6 of their last 8 games while the Red Storm lost 4 of their last 5 games. However, when it is a "win to get in" situation, things can change in a hurry. In other words, don't be surprised when the Red Storm really raises their level of play on the defensive end in this one. Prior to an ugly loss to Xavier in their final game of February, St John's held their 6 prior opponents to an average of 40% from the field and none of those 6 shot better than 43% from the field. The Sun Devils enter this game having allowed 45% from the field over their last 7 games away from home. Arizona State beat the Red Storm when they most recently met two years ago but St John's had 9 more shots from the field but had a rare poor shooting night while the Sun Devils shot well in that match-up. The recent trending of these two teams as well as the ASU win in their most recent meeting is resulting in too much respect being given to the Sun Devils here. Grab the value with the hungry dog and, keep in mind, you hear a lot about St John's Shamorie Ponds but when Mustapha Herron plays 27 minutes or more (and he is healthier again), the Red Storm have won 4 of their last 6 games. Herron averaged 22 points per game in the 3 most recent of those 4 wins. Look for him to come up big here while Ponds and LJ Figueroa also have big games to lead the way to an "upset" here. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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03-20-19 | North Carolina Central v. North Dakota State -5 | 74-78 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #716 Wednesday 8* North Dakota State Bison (-) vs North Carolina Central Eagles @ 6:40 ET - Big difference in the level of competition that these two teams have faced this season. Additionally, though the Eagles have a strong big man in Raasean Davis, the Bison hold a huge edge in the backcourt. Also, North Dakota State's two forwards that see plenty of minutes will be able to keep Davis from completely taking over the game. That said, what will become key in this match-up is the backcourt edge the Bison have. ND St holds the rest edge in this match-up and the Bison have gone 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS when they enter a game with rest of 7 or more days between games. North Carolina Central has 15 losses this season and 12 of the 15 have come by 9 or more points. In other words, when the Eagles get beat it is almost always by a sizable margin. Also, when NCC has been a dog of 5 or more points season, they've gone 0-7 SU and 6 of those 7 losses have come by a margin of 9 or more points. The Eagles are a sizable dog here for a reason and the team that has faced the much tougher competition this season will rise to the top before this one is all said and done. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a sluggish first half for the Bison here but eventually I expect their fresher legs and superior talent to lead to a win by a double digit margin. 13 of ND State's 18 wins this season have come by a margin of 6 or more points. 8* NORTH DAKOTA STATE |
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03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple +3.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #672 Tuesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Belmont Bruins @ 9:10 ET - The Bruins have the better record and the betting markets strongly favor them in this match-up. Of course you know what that usually means! The fact is that the first number that popped up off-shore on this game had the line at very nearly a pick'em. Now it has been driven all the way up to a -3.5 on Belmont! This is offering tremendous underdog line value to a Temple team that has a long-time veteran coach (Fran Dunphy) and that has played a much tougher schedule this season than the Bruins. Yes Belmont has a very high-scoring offense but keep in mind the competition that they faced. Also, the Owls are 16-6 ATS their last 22 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game! The Bruins are 3-6 ATS their last 9 tournament games. Specific to the NCAA Tourney Belmont is a long-term 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS). The Bruins are a long-term 1-3 ATS when they are a neutral court favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Temple is on a 7-3 ATS run in games with a posted total in the 150s. Additionally, the Owls went 4-0 SU in games with a posted total in the 150s this season. They will call this one an upset when it goes into the books but truly the earliest of the first numbers posted on this game (right around a pick'em) had it right! Grab the extra value of the points but we should not need them. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-19-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson -1.5 v. Prairie View A&M | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #669 Tuesday 8* Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Prairie View A & M Panthers @ 6:40 ET - The Panthers have 11 games in a row. Over that same stretch the Knights are 9-2 SU. The odds makers must have made an egregious error here since they made Fairleigh Dickinson the favorite, right? Of course long-time followers know how I feel about that and, the fact is, it is with good reason that Prairie View A & M is the underdog in this match-up. Though the Panthers are solid in the backcourt their weakness is in the frontcourt. Look for the Knights to hold an edge on the glass in this one. Also, the Panthers went 2-7 ATS this season in non-conference games while the Knights went 6-3 ATS in their non-conference games this season. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS (including 1-5 ATS this season) when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. The Knights are an incredible 13-2 ATS (including 6-0 ATS in recent seasons) in games played in the month of March. 8* FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON |