Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-06-23 | Winnipeg v. BC OVER 50.5 | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
This is the biggest game of the CFL season so far with Winnipeg and BC tied for first in the West Division each at 11-4.
But the real value comes not with trying to come up with the right side, but on the total going Over. Winnipeg is either first or second in the league in the major offensive categories, including scoring and total yards. The Blue Bombers are averaging 36.1 points in their last eight games. The Over has cashed in each of their last five games. Blue Bombers QB Zach Collaros leads the CFL with 30 TD passes. He has four reliable receiving targets, including league receiving yardage leader, Dalton Schoen. Brady Oliveira provides excellent balance for Winnipeg. He's the No. 1 rusher in the CFL with 1,359 yards. BC has gone Over in each of its last four games and five of its past six games. The Lions have scored 29 or more points in six of their last seven games. However, they are surrendering an average of 30.1 points during their last six games. Lions QB Vernon Adams Jr. is coming off a career performance, throwing for 458 yards and three TD's against Saskatchewan. He has a bevy of good targets to throw to. There were 64 points scored when the teams last met back in early August with Winnipeg winning, 50-14. Look for that many points to be scored again except more evenly divided. |
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09-08-23 | Hamilton v. Ottawa -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
Desperation versus exhaustion should spell a win and cover for host Ottawa. The Redblacks are in circle-the-wagons mode having lost five in a row with three of those defeats coming by a combined seven points. They have double revenge against Hamilton and fully realize this is their last week at getting an opponent that has a losing record. The rest of Ottawa's schedule is against foes that currently all have winning records. There should not be any excuse for the Redblacks because this is a golden spot for them. They were idle last week, while the Tiger-Cats are on a very short week having played rival Toronto this past Monday. The Tiger-Cats went all out trying to come back from a 17-0 deficit before losing to the Argonauts, 41-28. Hamilton gives up the second-most points per game in the league at 27.5 while ranking third-from-the-bottom in total defensive yards. Ottawa dual threat Dustin Crum is a good enough quarterback to take advantage. |
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08-27-23 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
Edmonton is the worst team in the Canadian Football League and has lost 22 straight home games. But I'm counting on the Elks to put an end to those two horrible marks. Edmonton is riding momentum for the first time this season following a 24-10 road upset victory against Hamilton last week. That road upset win looks even more impressive after Hamilton upset BC - the third-best team in the CFL - as a 12-point road underdog Saturday night. The Elks finally appear to have a decent QB in dual-threat Tre Ford. He threw for 174 yards and two TD's while rushing for 60 yards on five carries in Edmonton's win against Hamilton. The Elks are averaging 26.5 points in their last two games versus Hamilton and Winnipeg, which has the most victories in the CFL this season and gives up the second-fewest points, with offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson taking over the play-calling for Edmonton. Edmonton gets to go against an Ottawa defense that gives up the most passing yards and third-most overall yards. The Redblacks are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games. So the arrow finally is pointing up for an Edmonton home victory. |
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08-13-23 | Ottawa +10 v. Toronto | Top | 31-44 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Being able to stop the run and run the ball effectively with a mobile quarterback is a strong combination when taking double-digits on the road against an overrated opponent. That's how I see things in backing the Ottawa Redblacks against Toronto. The Redblacks are No. 1 in the CFL both in rushing and run defense. Ottawa's QB Denny Crum has given the team a huge lift with his exciting play since taking over from injured Jeremiah Masoli. Crum averages 8.5 yards per carry, highest in the CFL. Crum should present a strong dual threat as Toronto ranks eighth out of nine teams in the league in pass defense. Only once have the Redblacks lost by double-digits. They are capable of springing a major upset like they did against Winnipeg, also as a double-digit 'dog. The Redblacks defeated Calgary three weeks ago, too. Calgary upset Toronto last week. That loss looks worse now for the Argonauts after BC thrashed Calgary, 37-9, last night. That was the Argos' first loss of the season. They are 6-1 and have played only two above .500 opponents. The Argos rank sixth in total yards and yards allowed. That's below average. Toronto will have Chad Kelly at quarterback. Kelly suffered an ankle injury last week, but has been cleared to play. However, Kelly - like Crum - relies on mobility and that mobility could be compromised by his ankle injury. Toronto also is banged-up on defense. |
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07-30-23 | Calgary +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 18-25 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
There are three elite teams in the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The other six CFL teams are all below .500. Calgary is 2-4. Montreal is 2-3. The Stampeders have a higher ceiling than Montreal. Their won-lost record is a bit misleading with two of their losses coming to BC and Winnipeg. The other two defeats occurred in overtime by a combined five points. Montreal has lost three in a row. Those defeats were to Toronto, Winnipeg and BC by an average of 12.6 points. This really is a must-win spot for the Stampeders since their next four games are against Toronto, BC, Winnipeg and Toronto again. Calgary can't take a loss here to the Alouettes with that murderous schedule ahead of them. The Stampeders rank fifth in both offense and defense yardage. They are the fourth-highest scoring team. QB Jake Maier is off his finest game throwing for 450 yards and four TD's in a 43-41 overtime loss to Ottawa last week. I like the Stampeders to win the battle of the trenches in this one. The Alouettes have allowed a league-worst 26 sacks in just five games. Calgary has covered 75 percent of its last 21 road games going 15-5-1 ATS. |
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07-23-23 | Ottawa +5 v. Calgary | Top | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Seems strange to say, but the Redblacks might have found their best quarterback in Dustin Crum following season-ending injuries to starter Jeremiah Masoli and Tyrie Adams. You may recall Crum from his Mid-American Conference days with Kent State. He was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021. Crum rallied Ottawa from a 25-6 deficit to a 31-28 upset overtime victory against Winnipeg last week. Crum accounted for 261 yards passing and another 103 yards rushing. This was against a Blue Bombers defense that gives up the second-fewest yards per game in the CFL. Ottawa is now 2-3, same as Calgary. The Stampeders needed to pull out a 33-31 win against Saskatchewan last week to reach that mark. The Stampeders have not shown to be very good this season. Calgary is giving up an average of 28 points its last three games. The Stampeders haven't faced many mobile QB's such as Crum either. Ottawa ranks No. 2 in the CFL in fewest points allowed per game. The Redblacks defense should hold up against Calgary QB Jake Maier, who ranks in the bottom half among the passing yardage leaders in what has been a down year for CFL quarterbacks. The Redblacks not only hold quarterback and defensive edges, but also get the checkmark on special teams. Calgary has given up a league-worst seven big return plays on special teams. The Stampeders have fared poorly spread-wise at home, too, covering only 25 percent of their last 28 home games going 7-21 ATS. |
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07-22-23 | Saskatchewan v. BC -10 | Top | 9-19 | Push | 0 | 98 h 38 m | Show |
There are three powerful teams in the Canadian Football League this season - BC, Winnipeg and Toronto. Saskatchewan is at least two tiers below the Lions and could sink even more with its starting quarterback, Trevor Harris, out with injury. The Roughriders are 3-2. But two of those victories were against 0-6 Edmonton and the Roughriders only beat the Elks by a combined five points. BC ranks No. 2 in points per game and yards per game. But the Lions really shine on defense, which is bad news for untested Saskatchewan backup QB Mason Fine. The Lions have the best defense in the CFL ranking No. 1 in fewest points and yards allowed. They also are No. 1 in pass defense and have the second-most sacks. BC also has a scheduling break coming off a bye. The Lions have film on Fine since he played after Harris suffered a serious knee injury in last Saturday's loss to Calgary. The Roughriders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and 0-5 ATS in their past five games versus above .500 opponents. BC has covered its last five home games. |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season while Calgary is 1-3. But don't be deceived by those records. The Roughriders own two victories against 0-5 Edmonton by a combined five points. Their other win was a 29-26 upset overtime win against Calgary three weeks ago. Look for the Stampeders to get their revenge in this rematch. The Stampeders' other two losses were to powerful BC and Winnipeg, whose combined record is 8-2. Saskatchewan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and has failed to cover its last four home games. "We know we have to be better,'' Roughriders coach Craig Dickenson admitted. Calgary is in near must-win mode. This is the Stampeders' fifth game. Their offensive line and QB, Jake Maier, should start showing improvement by this stage. Calgary is more talented than Saskatchewan. The Roughriders are dealing with a heavy injury list, too. The Roughriders had a dozen players held out of practice among them kicker Brett Lauther, defensive back Rolan Milligan and defensive lineman Anthony Lanier II. The Stampeders are 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 times following a loss. They have covered in six of their last eight visits to Saskatchewan. |
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07-14-23 | Toronto -5 v. Montreal | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
This price is too short. Unbeaten Toronto has outscored its three opponents by an average of 17 points in going 3-0 SU and ATS. Montreal opened with victories against Ottawa and Hamilton - whose combined record is 2-6 - but got crushed the past two weeks when stepping up in class losing to BC by 16 points and to Winnipeg by 14. Toronto is another step-up game for Montreal. I don't see the Alouettes hanging within single digits. The Argonauts should dominate the line of scrimmage. They are averaging nearly four sacks a game and have a ballhawking secondary. Montreal hasn't been able to protect QB Cody Fajardo giving up more than five sacks per game. Toronto has the top rushing attack in the CFL with AJ Ouellette and Andrew Harris along with an athletic QB in Chad Kelly. Montreal is the home team, but this spot is very much against the Alouettes. Toronto is off a bye. The Alouettes had to play in Vancouver this past Sunday and then make the nearly 3,000-mile trip back to Montreal. All of this on a short week with this being a Friday game. |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
Coming off a bye, 1-2 Calgary has a chance to get back into contention in the tough West Division. Teams off a bye are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season in the CFL. Winnipeg is 3-1. But its offense and defense have yet to both play well in a game. The Blue Bombers gave up an average of 29.3 points during their first three games. They held Montreal to three points in a 17-3 win last week. The Alouettes average just 20 points. They rank fourth-from-the-bottom in points and yards gained per game. Montreal picked up 363 yards despite scoring only three points. There was bad weather in that game, too. So I'm looking for the Stampeders to put up their share of points against a Blue Bombers defense that ranks below average in opponent yards per play. Calgary QB Jake Maier has played much better after struggling opening week against BC's top-ranked defense. The Stampeders have scored 26 points in each of their past two games while averaging 418 yards during this span. Maier averaged 310 yards passing in the last two games while throwing four touchdowns. Calgary suffered wide receiver injuries, but gets back Reggie Begelton this week from a rib injury that kept him out of the Stampeders' last game. The Blue Bombers have scored just 23 points in their last two games. There are some strong trends that favor Calgary: The Stampeders are 11-1-1 ATS after not covering in their previous game, which they failed to do with an overtime loss to Saskatchewan, and they are 12-3-1 ATS during their last 16 road games. |
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06-24-23 | Saskatchewan +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
These teams are close to even. But Calgary's home field isn't worth this many points. Saskatchewan has a quarterback edge, too, with Trevor Harris against Jake Maier. The Stampeders also have a pair of key skill position injuries. So I find good value taking Saskatchewan at more than a field goal. Calgary showed a good run defense against Ottawa last week. However, the Roughriders can hurt the Stampeders through the air. Harris has four quality receivers. He passed for 413 yards and three TD's in a 45-27 shootout loss to Winnipeg last week. Saskatchewan opened its season with a 17-13 upset road victory against Edmonton. The Stampeders have just one TD pass in their two games. Maier will be without star running back Ka'Deem Carey again and wide receiver Reggie Begelton is out, too. Begelton is Calgary's leading in receptions and receiving yards. Calgary has failed to cover during 20 of its past 27 home games. |
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06-22-23 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 49 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 41 m | Show |
These are the two best teams in the Canadian Football League. I expect offense to dominate. Winnipeg is averaging 43.5 points and 447 yards, both league-leading marks. BC is second in yards per game at 427. The Blue Bombers averaged 30 points last season and ranked No. 3 in yards. The Lions led the league in yards per game last year while also averaging 30 points. So this is a heavyweight offensive matchup. I don't see BC being able to stop Blue Bombers QB Zach Collaros, who has thrown for the most yards and TD's in the league so far this season. Collaros turns 35 this season, but is in top form. He has an elite receiver in Dalton Schoen. Winnipeg also has a dangerous return specialist in Janarion Grant. BC QB Vernon Adams Jr. is second in passing yardage. The big question is can Adams fill the shoes of departed star QB Nathan Rourke. I believe he can because of his mobility and big arm. So I'm expecting Adams to trade points with Collaros resulting in a high-scoring game. |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46 | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
BC is home after posting a 25-15 road win against Calgary opening week on June 8. The Lions led the CFL in points scored at home last season, averaging 32.1 points in nine games. Look for the Lions to produce a big point total in this matchup based on how good QB Vernon Adams Jr. looked during preseason and in Week 1 throwing for 300 yards. BC rolled up 421 yards of offense. The Lions' found a good running back in Taquan Mizzell, who rushed for 81 yards on 12 carries. Adams won't have injured Lucky Whitehead, but he has other quality wideouts, including star Dominique Rhymes. I see Edmonton have difficulty trying to cover Rhymes, Alexander Hollins and Jevon Cottoy while also having to pay attention to Mizzell. The Elks have gone Over in eight of their last 10 road games. Edmonton opened its season with a 17-13 home loss to Saskatchewan. I'm expecting Elks QB Taylor Cornelius to play better than he did against the Roughriders. He was comfortable throwing to Eugene Lewis, who hauled in five receptions for 148 yards. |
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06-16-23 | Winnipeg -6.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
Winnipeg and Saskatchewan each opened the season with victories. But that's where the similarities end. The Blue Bombers are much better than the Roughriders. So I have no qualms laying a touchdown with them on the road. The Blue Bombers came within two points of winning the Grey Cup last season going 16-4 on the season, including playoffs. Winnipeg has most of its core players back, including QB Zach Collaros, RB Brady Oliveria and WR Dalton Schoen. The Blue Bombers have defeated Saskatchewan seven straight times, including going 3-0 last season. They rolled past the Roughriders by a combined 52 points during the past two meetings. Collaros was in good form in Winnipeg's, 42-31, opening week victory against Hamilton throwing for 354 yards and three TD's. The Blue Bombers compiled 499 yards of offense. Hamilton's 31 points were misleading. Defense and special teams played a big role in accumulating that total. The Blue Bombers held Ticats' QB Bo Levi Mitchell to 200 yards passing, picking him off twice. Saskatchewan was 6-12 last year, 3-6 at home. The Roughriders nipped Edmonton, 17-13, on the road in Week 1. The Roughriders forced three turnovers, but gave up 202 passing yards. The Roughriders also suffered some key injuries. Wide receiver Derel Walker, who scored their lone TD last week, is out with a knee injury and QB Trevor Harris suffered a bruised hip late in the game. Harris is likely to play, but he may not be 100 percent. I don't see him and Saskatchewan's offense keeping up with Winning's attack. I expect the Blue Bombers to be sharper in Week 2 after committing four turnovers against Hamilton yet still winning by 11 points. |
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09-02-22 | Ottawa +5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
Ottawa has covered during each of its last NINE visits to Montreal. That's a strong historical trend. But there is much more as to why I like the underdog Redblacks to cover if not win straight-up. The Redblacks have covered four of their five road games this season. Montreal is a money-burner at home covering only four of its last 14 home contests. Ottawa has a respectable defense. The Redblacks are giving up an average of 19.5 points in their last four games. Montreal has won two in a row. But the Alouettes may have lost that winning momentum since they last played on Aug. 20. This is just their third game since Aug. 11. Their two victories in a row came by three in overtime and by one point. The Alouettes have surrendered an average of 31.6 points in their last three home games. Ottawa looks like it has gotten its offense back on track with Nick Arubckle returning at quarterback. He helped spark the Redblacks to a 25-18 road upset victory against Edmonton as a short underdog in Ottawa's last game. The Redblacks don't need to have a dominant offense to upset Montreal. They can accomplish this via ball-control with Arbuckle providing steady quarterback play and Devonte Williams running the ball. Williams is in line for a big game facing a Montreal defense that ranks second-to-last in run defense giving up 5.3 yards per carry on the ground and 10 rushing TD's. |
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07-29-22 | BC -125 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 32-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
Saskatchewan could be far closer to full strength than it was last week because of injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak. The Roughriders aren't a very good team, though, even if healthy. They lost and failed to cover against Toronto in their last two games. The Roughriders gave up an average of 30.5 points to the Argos in those two games. The Roughriders have played an easy schedule. BC is the first strong Western Division foe Saskatchewan has faced. BC is 4-1 with the lone loss occurring to two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg. The Lions rank No. 1 in totals yards and points per game. They also give up the fewest yards per game on defense along with ranking first in pass defense. Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo sat out last week due to a knee injury. Jake Dolegala filled in for Fajardo and completed just 46 percent of his throws. Fajardo is likely to return here, but his mobility may be limited. Saskatchewan last played this past Sunday. So the Roughriders are on a short week. BC, by contrast, last played on July 21. So the Lions are on extra rest and prep time. |
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07-22-22 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 47 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 10 m | Show |
Winnipeg is coming off a season-high 43-point scoring performance against BC, who gives up the fewest yards per game in the CFL. Now the Blue Bombers step way down in defensive class facing Edmonton. The Elks have the worst defensive numbers in the league, including allowing a CFL-worst 36.7 points per game. QB Zach Collaros is off to an excellent start despite the Blue Bombers breaking in many new faces on offense. Winnipeg hasn't found a bell cow running back, but Collaros has found chemistry with his old receiving target from Hamilton, Greg Ellingson, and Dalton Schoen. Those two receivers have combined for 699 receiving yards, 44 receptions and six TD's in five games. Collaros has a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 68 attempts during his past two games. The Elks rank last in pass defense while also surrendering the most passing TD's. So Collaros is in line for another big performance. Edmonton should do its part to help get this total Over. Winnipeg gives up the fewest points per game. However, the Blue Bombers' defensive statistics don't match that lofty No. 1 mark as Winnipeg ranks eighth in pass defense and sixth in total defense. |
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07-09-22 | Winnipeg v. BC -3 | Top | 43-22 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
Both Winnipeg and British Columbia are unbeaten. But statistically and situational-wise these teams are not that close. BC is much superior. The Lions rank first in the CFL in the major categories in both offense AND defense. They have allowed just two sacks in three games. Nathan Rourke has opened the season with the highest completion percentage in any three-game span in CFL history going 88-for-105 for 83.8 percent. The Blue Bombers average fewer than 22 points. They rank second-to-last in yards and are last in pass defense. They were fortunate to nip 1-2 Toronto last week in a 23-22 victory. The Lions average the most yards in the league while giving up the fewest yards per game. They are the No. 1 passing and scoring team. Their defense is No. 1 against the pass and No. 2 against the run. Winnipeg is getting a lot of respect based on its 4-0 record and being the defending Grey Cup champions. Right now, though, BC is the best team in the league. The spot sets up well, too, for the Lions as the Blue Bombers will be making the 1,318-mile, cross-country journey. |
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07-04-22 | Winnipeg -4.5 v. Toronto | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This was supposed to be a down season for two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg. But the Blue Bombers are 3-0. Their stout defense is giving up just 13 points per game in victories against Hamilton and Ottawa twice. The Blue Bombers are disciplined, well-coached under Mike O'Shea and won't beat themselves. That should prove to be enough to win by more than a touchdown against Toronto. The Argos nipped Montreal, 20-19, in their opener failing to cover as 3-point home favorites. However, the 1-1 Argos were buried by BC, 44-3, in their last game raising a huge red flag about just how good they are. Toronto surrendered 583 yards and 35 first downs in that loss. The Argos' defense last forced a two-and-out during the opening drive of their season-opener. The Blue Bombers feature two top pass rushers in Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffocats. Toronto has a banged-up offensive line and a vulnerable defense. So I see Winnipeg covering for the ninth time in the last 11 meetings against the Argos. |
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07-01-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton -7 | Top | 29-25 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Both Edmonton and Hamilton are 0-3 on the season. But these are different types of 0-3. Rebuilding Edmonton averages 18 points a game and has the worst defense in the CFL. Hamilton's three losses have come to Calgary, Winnipeg and Saskatchewan. Those three opponents have a combined record of 8-1. Now the Tiger-Cats finally get to step down in class - way down in class. This is the Tiger-Cats' second home game. They were nipped by Calgary, 33-30 in overtime, during their first home game. Hamilton is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. Edmonton is giving rookie QB Tre Ford his first start. This is a tough road setting for Ford, who replaces Nick Arbuckle. Ford couldn't beat out Arbuckle during preseason. Ford has thrown three passes, completing one throw for eight yards. One of his passes was intercepted. The Elks are going to be without injured James Wilder Jr., their best running back. Note, too, that the Tiger-Cats have covered the last four times they've played Edmonton. |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 47 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
The spot isn't great for British Columbia traveling on a short week. But the Lions' offense has gotten off to a great start averaging 51.5 points and 526 yards per game. Both lead the CFL. Nathan Rourke has quieted any critics so far with his quarterback play for BC. The Over has cashed in seven of the Lions' last eight games going back to last season. Ottawa should do its part to push this total Over behind QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Redblacks have played two games - both against defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg and its stout defense. The Lions' defensive numbers are inflated because they played a pair of weak offenses, Edmonton and Toronto. Those two teams rank last and second-to-last offensively. Ottawa and the veteran Masoli should produce much better numbers against the Lions than the Elks and Argonauts did. Expect the Redblacks to be fresh and have a strong offensive design since they were idle last week. |
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10-25-19 | Calgary -140 v. Winnipeg | Top | 28-29 | Loss | -140 | 72 h 10 m | Show |
The teams just met last Saturday with Calgary winning, 37-33, but failing to cover as 6 1/2-point home favorites. The Stampeders won that game without star defensive back Tre Roberson, who has seven interceptions, and Don Jackson, one of the better RB's in the CFL. Both practiced on Tuesday and are expected to play. The Stampders have motivation trying to win the West Division. They are tied for first with Saskatchewan. Winnipeg is at low ebb having lost four of its past five games. Calgary holds a huge QB edge with Bo Levi Mitchell. The Blue Bombers may have third-stringer Zach Collaros as their starting QB. Chris Streveler, who was filling in for injured Matt Nichols, was limping during the Stampeders' win last week. Streveler was on crutches Tuesday. Collaros hasn't played since Week 1. Winnipeg is 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times hosting Calgary.
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08-02-19 | Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
The Alouettes are on a three-game win streak and favored for the first time this season. This isn't a little number either. Montreal hasn't won four straight games since 2014. I'm not sold that the Alouettes can cover a touchdown. They are off a bye. But I don't see that as a good thing. It can slow their momentum. It's a big plus for the Redblacks if they get starting quarterback Dominque Davis back for this game. I think Davis plays. But if he doesn't, I like Ottawa at this price anyways. Backup QB Jonathon Jennings was a lot better in his second start completing 15 of 18 passes and the Redblacks defense has looked better. Ottawa has covered 70 percent of its past 37 road games and is 6-0 ATS the past six times playing at Montreal.
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08-01-19 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
I don't see Hamilton beating Saskatchewan on the road after losing its starting quarterback, Jeremiah Mosaoli, for the season this past Friday after Masoli suffered a torn ACL. The Tiger-Cats have to turn to second-year QB Dane Evans. The Roughriders are back home after a pair of victories against British Columbia. They have momentum and revenge for a 23-17 road loss to Hamilton opening week. The Roughriders have dominated the Tiger-Cats at home going 17-4-1 ATS. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo is ahead of his counterpart Evans. Fajardo has made five CFL starts and is coming off a 21-for-26 passing game and 46 yards rushing.
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07-26-19 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton UNDER 53 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 25 m | Show |
This is the marquee matchup on the CFL Week 7 card. It's easy to think offense with these two teams. But I'm going defense. Winnipeg has given up the fewest points and second-fewest yards in the CFL. Hamilton isn't as good offensively as its season numbers show. The Tiger-Cats' numbers are skewed by getting to play three games against Toronto and Montreal. Those are the two worst defenses in the league. The Tiger-Cats were held under 260 yards by Calgary and Saskatchewan when they stepped up. Hamilton has surrendered 17 or fewer points in three of its five games. Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols had a huge game against Ottawa last week. Nichols, though, isn't nearly that good. These teams have a strong Under history with the low side winning 16 of the past 21 times.
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07-25-19 | Calgary -5 v. Ottawa | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
I like Calgary in a revenge spot for an opening week, 32-28, loss to Ottawa as a 9-point home favorite. The Stampeders have won three of their last four games since then. Their defense has improved giving up an average of 18.6 points a game during their past three games. Nick Arbuckle has been doing a solid job at quarterback for Calgary replacing injured Bo Levi Mitchell. Ottawa really is struggling offensively scoring 14, 19 and one point during its last three games. The RedBlacks have a long injury list headed by quarterback Dominique Davis. Minus Davis and wide receiver R.J. Harris, Ottawa was held to 12 first downs and 175 yards in its 31-1 loss to Winnipeg last Friday. I don't see the RedBlacks solving their problems, especially at quarterback, in time for this matchup.
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08-04-18 | BC v. Calgary UNDER 50.5 | Top | 18-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
Calgary is the best team in the Canadian Football League and a huge reason for that is a defense that is on pace to give up the fewest opponent offensive touchdowns in CFL history. The Stampeders are holding foes to less than 12 points per game. I don't see BC denting this dominant defense. The Lions are third from the bottom in scoring. They haven't broken the 22-point barrier in four of their five games. Travis Lulay has been BC's starting quarterback the past two games replacing an ineffective Jonathon Jennings. Lulay has moved the team better, but he's past his prime, on the road and hasn't faced a defense close to this caliber. The teams combined to average just 39 points during their two meetings last season with Calgary winning, 21-17, and 27-13 at home. BC and Calgary each have a strong recent history of going Under in August. The under is 6-0-1 in the Lions' last seven August games while Calgary has gone below the total in seven of its past eight August matchups.
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06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show |
This is the highest over/under on the Week 3 Canadian Football League card. It's justified if you look at how strong these offenses looked last week. Ottawa scored 40 points against Saskatchewan. Calgary reeled off 41 points against Toronto. But what's being overlooked by this high total is Calgary's tremendous defense and the situation the Stampeders are in. Calgary has allowed only 21 points all season. They are No. 1 in pass defense and run defense. The Stampeders find themselves in a tough spot here. They just played at Toronto on Saturday. So this is a very short week for them. It's such a short week they only were able to get in one practice, which did not go well, according to sources. The short week is going to hurt Calgary's offense more than its defense especially this being so early in the season. Ottawa's defense was sharp in its 40-17 victory versus the Roughriders last Thursday. The Redblacks were idle opening week. So they are going to be the fresher team. Most of the Roughriders' passing yards came in garbage time as Ottawa entered the final quarter leading, 33-14. Calgary has a history of going Under early in the season. The Under has cashed in 79 percent of the Stampeders' past 24 June games.
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06-22-18 | Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Hamilton has become a much better team since June Jones took over. The Tiger-Cats nearly pulled the upset against Calgary last week, but Jeremiah Masoli threw a late interception and Calgary scored a touchdown while running out the clock resulting in a misleading 28-14 final. The Tiger-Cats have covered the past five times following a loss. They've also enjoyed excellent ATS success in Edmonton covering the past five times there. Edmonton had to scramble to nip Winnipeg last week, 33-30. Edmonton was the only CFL road winner during Week 1. The Eskimos host unbeaten BC next week so this is a bit of an early season sandwich spot for them. The Eskimos have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games. The Eskimos showed some defensive vulnerability in beating the Blue Bombers. This series has been close with each of the last six head-to-head matchups being decided by a touchdown or less. |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 51 | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
Saskatchewan may have its best defense since Chris Jones became the Roughriders coach three seasons ago. Jones is a top-notch defensive coach so that's saying a lot. Saskatchewan held Toronto, the defending Grey Cup champions, to 19 points and fewer than 300 yards in last week's 27-19 home win. The Roughriders, though, weren't sharp on offense. The Under has won in 10 of the Roughriders' last 11 games. Ottawas was the lone team that didn't play opening week. So the Redblacks are going to be rusty and operating against a strong defense that has already played a game. Saskatchewan has a very good defensive front seven and Ottawa quarterback, Trevor Harris, still isn't 100 percent from knee and ankle injuries he suffered during preseason. Harris should start, but the Redblacks are likely to have a conservative game plan since they also have a banged-up and an unsettled offensive line. The Redblacks have been a strong Under team going 12-4-1 to the under during their last 17 games.
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10-09-17 | Edmonton -7 v. Montreal | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
Edmonton overachieved when it opened the season 7-0. But the Eskimos aren't as bad as their current six-game losing streak shows with five of the defeats coming to Calgary, Winnipg and Saskatchewan. Those teams own the three best records in the CFL. Look for the Eskimos to halt their losing streak against Montreal, the worst team in the CFL. The Alouettes haven't been good for a few years. They've struggled offensively, but had a decent defense. Now their defense has fallen apart surrendering an average of 38 points per game during their last seven games, all losses and non-covers. Montreal's offense remains bad, too, failing to break the 20-point barrier in all but one of those seven defeats. Montreal management tried to shake things up firing head coach Jacques Chapdelaine and defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe a couple of weeks ago. That hasn't helped. The Alouettes have lost their last two games by a combined 62 points. Edmonton needs to improve its ground attack. The Eskimos took a key step to doing just that trading for C.J. Gable, who just gained 157 yards on 18 carries and scored two touchdowns for Hamilton last week. Gable should rev up Edmonton's offense. The Eskmos have covered six of the last seven in the series.
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09-04-17 | Edmonton +10.5 v. Calgary | Top | 18-39 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
The Eskimos are calling this their biggest game of the year. The line is inflated so the Eskimos with this many points are the right side. Edmonton has lost two in a row after opening 7-0. I don't see the Eskimos being flat a second straight week. The Eskimos are starting to get their injured players back, including wide receiver Brandon Zylstra. Wide receivers Adarius Bowman and Vidal Hazelton both are expected to play now, too, along with offensive lineman Simeon Rottier. The Stampeders are the best team in the CFL. But Calgary hasn't played an above .500 opponent during its last four games. I don't see the Stampeders winning by double-digits here.
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08-25-17 | Saskatchewan +6 v. Edmonton | Top | 54-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Saskatchewan is coming on and this spot sets up well for the Roughriders. The Roughriders have won three of their last five and off probably their most impressive performance of the season beating BC, 41-8, two weeks ago. Saskatchewan was idle last week. Both their offensive and defensive line played well for Saskatchewan in that win against BC. Kevin Glenn has thrown 14 TD passes in seven games. Edmonton lost for the first time this season falling on the road to Winnipeg last week. The Eskimos may be down following that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead matchup for their next game when they meet Calgary with first place in the Western Division at stake. Given their lengthy injury list, it's not surprising the Eskimos finallly lost after opening with seven consecutive victories. They have close to 20 players hurt, including JC Sherritt, Adarius Bowman, John White, Brandon Zylstra, Almondo Sewell and Marcus Howard. The Roughriders have lost 15 straight road games versus division foes. Expect that to change with Chris Jones in charge. This is just Jones' second year as Roughriders coach. He's one of the top coaches in the league. Edmonton has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 home games. The Eskimos also haven't covered during their past three games against the Roughriders with two of the past three going into overtime.
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08-04-17 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -2.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
Winnipeg is 3-2. Ottawa is 1-4-1. But the Redblacks are favored here. What does that tell you? It tells me the oddsmaker believes the Redblacks are going to win. And I fully agree. The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks have played a very tough schedule. They are better than their record having gone 5-1 ATS. Their average losing margin is 2.5 points a game. Their record could be just the opposite with a few breaks. This time Ottawa is in a good spot. The Redblacks had a much needed bye last week while Winnipeg is coming off a victory for the ages nipping Montreal, 41-40, last Thursday. The Blue Bombers scored two touchdowns in the final 48 seconds to pull out the victory scoring on the final play after recovering an on-side kick. I respect Winnipeg's offense, but the Blue Bombers have a porous defense. Giving up 40 points to the Alouttes is downright scary. The Blue Bombers are surrendering an average of 35.8 points per game during their last five games and must deal with the league's top quarterback-to-receiver tandem in Trevor Harris and Greg Ellingson. The Redblacks have won four of the last five meetings against the Blue Bombers, too.
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07-28-17 | BC +2 v. Edmonton | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
The teams met opening week at BC and the Eskimos won, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point road 'dogs. Edmonton still hasn't lost. The Eskimos are 4-0. So why fade the lone unbeaten team in the CFL? The short answers are the Lions are the better team right now, Edmonton is due to lose with its four victories coming by a combined 12 points for an average win of three points and BC revenge motivation. The Eskimos have covered only three of their last 12 home games. BC has won four in a row. The Lions have won and covered all three of their road games beating Toronto by 13, Montreal by seven and Hamilton by 15. BC has improved since its Week 1 loss to Edmonton. QB Travis Lulay has been a revelation filling in for injured starter Jonathon Jennings. The Lions are averaging 43 points during their last two games with Lulay behind center. BC's secondary also has shown major improvement. Edmonton struggled versus winless Hamilton last week before pulling out a 31-28 win. The Eskimos have injuries on defense and will be minus suspended cornerback Garry Peters against BC.
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07-24-17 | Ottawa v. Toronto -135 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 64 h 1 m | Show |
There are frequent scheduling quirks in the CFL. This is one of them - and it favors Toronto in a big way. Ottawa will be playing for the third time in 11 days. During this span, the Redblacks hosted Toronto - losing by a point - lost at Edmonton and got past Montreal at home this past Wednesday. They are 1-7 ATS following a victory and facing serious fatigue issues. The Argonauts, on the other hand, last played on July 13. They will be the far fresher team and have the advantage of being home with plenty of time to game plan. Toronto coach Marc Trestman is good at three things - devising game plans, working with quarterbacks and coaching in the CFL. He's much more in his element in the CFL than he was in the NFL. It's probably not a coincidence Ricky Ray has passed for 300 yards in each of Toronto's first four games. The last time Ray, a probable CFL Hall of Famer, had a string of four straight 300-yard passing games was 2009. Toronto has the better defense sparked by linebacker Bear Woods, who is averaging nearly seven tackles a game. Ray is going to put up points against Ottawa. Toronto beat the Redblacks in Ottawa earlier this month. Now the Argonauts are home and given the situational circumstances, should have little difficulty winning again.
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07-21-17 | Winnipeg +4 v. BC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
Winnipeg has covered in five of its last six visits to British Columbia. Yet this is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, who were nipped 32-31 during their last visit to BC. That came in the playoffs last season and ended the Blue Bombers' year. Both teams are playing well. But this is a good spot for Winnipeg, which has covered the past seven times it has met a foe with a winning mark. BC could be a bit fat and happy coming home after being on the road for three straight games - all victories. These games all were in the Eastern time zone being in Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton. British Columbia is in the Pacific time zone. The last time BC played at home was opening week. The Lions lost that game to Edmonton, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point favorites. The Lions will be minus their outstanding quarterback, Jonathon Jennings. He got hurt against Hamilton last week. So career backup-type Travis Lulay took over and proceeded to throw for 436 yards, most in CFL history for a quarterback coming off the bench. That certainly was impressive. It also came against a bad Hamilton defense. Winnipeg will be prepared for Lulay, who isn't nearly that good. The Blue Bombers do an excellent job of disguising their coverages and also are opportunistic on defense. An outright Blue Bombers victory would not be a surprise.
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07-13-17 | Toronto v. Winnipeg -3 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 37 m | Show |
Winnipeg didn't get the job done against Calgary this past Friday losing 29-10 after leading at halftime. Then, again, the Blue Bombers never beat the Stampeders having lost 17 of the past 18 times to them, including nine straight at home. Calgary probably was the best team in the CFL last season. The Stampeders are likely the best team this year. So there's no shame in losing to them. The Blue Bombers' offense is much better than they showed against the Stampeders. I see them bouncing back to beat Toronto, a very bad road team. The Argonauts are off a rare road victory. They nipped Ottawa, the defending Grey Cup champion, 26-25, as four-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. Toronto had failed to cover in its previous six road contests. The Argos also are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 overall games. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. Winnipeg is playing for just the third time. This is Toronto's fourth game and the Argos played this past Saturday. So they are traveling again having played only five days ago. Winnipeg is the fresher team. Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols has played well since becoming the starter in Game 6 last year. Sparked by Nichols, the Blue Bombers went 11-7 and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Nichols is off his worst game, though. So he should be highly motivated, especially at home, to play much better this weak against a much weaker opponent. Nichols has a lot going with 10 returning starters, including his entire offensive line. He has all-star running back Andrew Harris and veteran wideouts Darvin Adams, Clarence Denmark and Weston Dressler. The Blue Bombers are opportunistic defensively leading the league in takeaways last season with 59. Toronto ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring per game this season.
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11-04-16 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa UNDER 51.5 | Top | 33-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 29 m | Show |
Winnipeg doesn't want to win this game and Ottawa doesn't care. That sums up things and should result in a close-to-the-vest low-scoring matchup. The teams met last week and Ottawa won, 23-10, on the road. |
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10-10-16 | Calgary v. Toronto OVER 52 | Top | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 32 m | Show |
First off, the weather is going to be fine for this day game with temperatures in the 50's with no rain and little wind. |
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10-07-16 | Saskatchewan +7 v. Ottawa | Top | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
Forget the records here that show Ottawa leading the Eastern Division with a 6-6 record and Saskatchewan last in the Western Division at 3-10. |
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09-16-16 | Montreal v. Hamilton -10 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
These two teams met two months ago and Hamilton buried Montreal, 31-7, despite not playing an "A" game, or having quarterback Zach Collaros. |
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09-10-16 | Saskatchewan +10.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 19 m | Show |
Saskatchewan isn't going anywhere at 1-9. The Roughriders' season is essentially finished - except for this game. This is going to be their Super Bowl. |
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09-04-16 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +4.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Winnipeg is hot with four straight victories that have coincided since Matt Nichols was installed as its starting quarterback. Saskatchewan is 1-8, 3-6 ATS. |
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08-28-16 | Hamilton +4.5 v. Calgary | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
It's a rough to fade Calgary, but the Stampeders have a bit of a cushion in the West Division and could be in letdown mode. |
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08-26-16 | Winnipeg +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 98 h 8 m | Show |
Montreal has the second-worst record in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes were 1-5 in their last six games - with all the losses occurring by double-digits - until they upset Ottawa last Friday as nine-point road 'dogs. |
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08-06-16 | Edmonton +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
The defending Grey Cup champion Eskimos are finding out that repeating isn't going to be easy. They have lost their last two games - both as solid home favorites. It's the first time Edmonton has lost two in a row since 2014. |
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08-03-16 | Hamilton -140 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-37 | Loss | -140 | 55 h 54 m | Show |
If you think wide receivers are valuable in the NFL, watch a CFL game. That's really all about passing and it's a key factor why host Winnipeg is in major trouble this week with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver.
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07-31-16 | Toronto +10.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
The number is inflated because Ottawa starting quarterback Henry Burris is back after missing five games with a finger injury, while Logan Kilgore makes his first start replacing injured No. 1 quarterback Ricky Ray for Toronto. |
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07-29-16 | BC +5 v. Calgary | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 58 h 49 m | Show |
Road teams have been gold this CFL season. B.C. has contributed to that going 2-0 SU and ATS in its two away matchups. The Lions aren't strong at quarterback, but they compensate for that with a league-leading running attack and outstanding defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Lions' ground attack can take advantage of Calgary's defensive line injuries making it easier for quarterback Jonathon Jennings to pick his spots. |
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07-25-16 | Montreal +7 v. Toronto | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -135 | 85 h 21 m | Show |
Road teams have been gold this CFL season going 13-3-1 and 15-2 against the spread through Thursday. Toronto has been part of this home field problem going 0-2 at their new BMO Field, losing by an average of 16 points to Hamilton and Ottawa. A crowd of less than 10,000 is expected so the Argonauts don't have a strong home field despite their new digs. |
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07-15-16 | Hamilton -120 v. Montreal | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
Yes, there's a certain risk in getting behind Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. He can be a turnover machine, but he's also passed for 933 yards, completed better than 71 percent of his throws and has five touchdown passes in three games. Masoli is highly mobile, too. Montreal has played decently on defense, but hasn't faced a quarterback who can operate sideline to sideline like Masoli can. |
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07-08-16 | Saskatchewan +11 v. Edmonton | Top | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 2 m | Show |
This is just too many points for Edmonton to give up considering the defense and coaching of their opponent. |
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07-01-16 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 78 h 15 m | Show |
Calgary is double-digits better than Winnipeg especially when playing at home. |
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06-24-16 | Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 50.5 | Top | 22-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 24 m | Show |
These teams are familiar with each other having just recently played a preseason game in which there were fewer than 50 points scored. |