Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -5.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jimmy Butler injury looms large and given how much he has met to this team, his absence would be too much to overcome for this team. The Heat have struggled on the road overall this season and grabbing a win for the second-straight night in Madison Square Garden will be asking too much. For the Knicks, they have a few injuries of their own that they're worrying about but with their scoring depth at hand, finding success on the offensive end will extend this game and make things difficult for Miami to keep pace. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two sides. |
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05-01-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -9 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics will roll in Monday's matchup and with the advantages across the board, there's no doubt that they'll start this series strong. Being without Embiid is going to be too much for the 76ers to overcome, on both ends of the court. The 76ers will match the scoring to keep pace with Tatum and Brown, let alone one of the deepest backcourts in the league. Their frontcourt will also have the advantage against Paul Reed. Add in a road game and have to shake some rust off, and it makes sense that this one is determined to be a double-digit win for Boston. Additionally, according to covers.com, Boston is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record, are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings against the 76ers in Boston, and is 5-0 ATS against the 76ers in the last five meetings. |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I just don't think the Kings are ready to go down, and they certainly won't go down without a fight. They showed that they can go toe to toe with the Warriors in the Chase Center, as they should have won game 4 but blew it late. That near miss will be top of mind Friday night. Of the five games played thus far, three of them have been decided by less than 7 points and another has been decided by 8 points. So these games have pretty much all been close, with all going down to the wire. Fox should be ready to go and I like the Kings to keep it close enough to cover. Take the Kings getting the points. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | 128-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are riding a wave of momentum from the game five win and even if they don't win game six, they have all the tools and confidence to take it to within one possession. Not only are they at home but they also welcome Murray into the fold as well, which will give them plenty of offensive options beyond just Young. The Celtics have been solid but with the frontcourt struggling, the Hawks have been able to dominate on the offensive and defensive glass, which is a trend bound to continue in this close one. Additionally, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Monday's disheartening and shocking loss, I fully expect to see an angry, focused Bucks team. They have no choice, because a loss ends their season -- and that would be embarrassing as they are the top seed and had the best record in the NBA. Giannis was great on Monday and that's a great sign. There is no way he lets his team lose at home. Middleton and Holiday were subpar and you can bet that Giannis will light a fire under them and they will bounce back with big games at home. This one has all the earmarks of a Milwaukee blowout, as Miami focuses on the game 6 closeout at home. Take the Bucks here giving up the points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies might be at home but the Lakers have already shown that they can muster up a performance strong enough to win on the road. Add in Lebron and Anthony Davis dominating on both ends and it's asking far too much of the Grizzlies to match that expected output. Morant is elite but without a ton of help in the scoring department, it's difficult to see an avenue where they keep pace with the Lakers. Add in injuries to the frontcourt and it's clear they are missing that advantage on the offensive and defensive glass. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. |
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04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns -12 | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What exactly do the Clippers have left to play for? With Kawhi Leonard out and Paul George still sidelined, LA doesn't have a fighter's chance of advancing. The motivation to keep the score respectable isn't there, even in a closeout game. Russell Westbrook's hustle will go unappreciated if he's asked to carry too much of the offensive load, which isn't his forte. Phoenix has been on its A-game since dropping game one, beating Los Angeles inside-out. In game four, the Suns scored 48 points in the paint and outrebounded the Clippers 49-33 with 14 offensive rebounds. They also hit 9 of 22 shots from three (40.9%). While this is a large spread, I believe it's just. The Clippers, 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games playing on two days of rest, aren't suited for a battle in the valley on Tuesday. If this game's even close for more than a quarter, I'll be surprised. The Suns have the killer instinct required to put away a down and desperate Clippers team. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves +10 v. Nuggets | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota won't win this game but this series has shown that they'll at least be able to keep thing interesting and close in this game four showdown. The big men on Minnesota have had their way the last few games and their ability to improve this group's rebounding on both ends is sure to help. Anthony Edwards is the top scorer in this game and his ability to be explosive gives them another dimension towards keeping things close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Timberwolves are 29-7 ATS in the last 33 meetings in Denver. |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The big game for Denver was game 3 to essentially put the Timberwolves away. Since an 0-3 deficit is virtually a death knell for a team, Denver may take the foot off the gas a bit here while Minnesota will be focused on not being swept and getting at least one win. Make no mistake Denver will end this in 5 back in Denver, but Minnesota finds a way to win here at home on Sunday night. Also, the Timberwolves are 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Timberwolves here getting the points. |
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04-23-23 | Celtics -5.5 v. Hawks | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great opportunity to lean heavily on a Celtics team that has a huge talent edge over the Hawks. Boston spent far too much of game three trying to outscore the Hawks rather than dig in defensively. Atlanta dominated the glass against what appeared to be a disinterested Boston front line. Boston failed to record a blocked shot for the first time in the series and the league's fifth-best defensive unit allowed Atlanta to shoot 56%. Look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments in game four to gain back control against an Atlanta team that was given free rein to drive to the basket for easy buckets in game three. I expect to see a heavy dose of Celtics defense in game three and a comfortable Boston win. |
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04-20-23 | Kings +6 v. Warriors | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Draymond Green just can't keep his emotions in check and that has cost the Warriors throughout his career, as he has been absent before from big games like this one because of his actions on the court. I think the Warriors will hold on here for the win, just because I have complete faith in Steph Curry to not let his team down. Plus, the Warriors are like night and day when playing at home and on the road. They are great at home and awful on the road. The home crowd here will push them to a win, but the scrappy Kings will cover. Take Sacramento getting the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With all eyes glued to the status of Giannis, it's actually the injury woes for Miami that will make this game fall in Milwaukee's favor. The Heat will be without their top perimeter threat in Herro and could be without one of their most experienced backcourt pieces in Lowry. For the Bucks, the supporting cast isn't going to be a shocked in Wednesday's showdown to have carry much more of workload, though if Giannis can go, that'll only increase their likelihood to win with ease anyway. The Bucks were one of the best teams in the league at home, while Miami was one of the worst road teams of the playoff teams, which will further ensure things swing back into Milwaukee's favor in this one. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks +6 v. Cavs | 90-107 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With how New York has performed this season in this matchup, there's no reason to think that they won't at least keep things competitive in this one. Their balance in the frontcourt and backcourt is crucial, especially when compared to Cleveland's struggles last game. New York's depth seems to be an advantage but having to win two games in a row overall might be too much to ask. Expect the Knicks to focus on the defensive end and slowing the game down, which might not serve them well in the result but will allow them to stay right within striking distance as the game comes to a close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win, while also sitting 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Cleveland overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -10 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Until they got sloppy in the second half, the Celtics' offense was able to get whatever they wanted. Brown and Tatum's drives to the basket went unchallenged and the Celtics consistently found themselves with open looks from long range. Atlanta's inability to consistently shoot the three will ultimately do them in against a Celtics team that shoots the 3pt shot at the second-highest rate in the NBA. The Hawks, for their part, shoot the highest percentage of two-point shots in the NBA. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Boston's Al Horford, and Rob Williams III consistently met players at the rim and altered their shots on Saturday. The pair combined for three of Boston's seven shot blocks in the game. Look for Boston to establish both Brown and Tatum going to the basket, which will again open up their shooting from long range. |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets simply don't have the star power to keep up with this 76ers team, especially not on the road. They have some fantastic players, but nobody on that team is going to take over a game the way that Joel Embiid or James Harden can. Playing on the road against a 76ers team that's superb at home, the Nets don't stand a chance. We've seen them fall to Philly five times already between the regular season and game one, and this game should go the same way. The 76ers control the game and take a 2-0 lead in the series. |
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04-16-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -7.5 | 80-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has at least sharpened their edge as they have played twice since the end of the regular season. That is a double-edged sword as it has helped keep the rust off but it has added extra wear and tear to key players in the rotation. Denver was on cruise control over the final month or so of the season as they held the advantage for both the Northwest Division and the top spot in the Western Conference. That gave the Nuggets the ability to rest some of their key players, like two-time reigning MVP Jokic, and prepare for the postseason run. Denver was a sparkling 34-7 at home this season while the Timberwolves were 20-21 as the road team on the year. Give the Nuggets the upper hand in this contest as the rest factor works in their favor. |
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04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks -9 | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It will be interesting to see how the Heat chooses to defend Antetonkoumnpo. They could defend him with Adebayo but that might force the team's best rebounder to the bench with foul trouble. Butler, arguably the Heat's best defender, doesn't have the length to cover the Greek Freak and I'm not sure Spoelstra will want to wear out his best offensive player by covering Antetonkoumnpo all night. With that in mind, I like the Bucks to dominate the first game. Milwaukee exposed the Heat's other defenders this season on the perimeter, nailing over 18 3pt field goals per matchup. Miami will adjust but that adjustment will likely come after a substantial game-one loss. This will be the first time all season that the Heat will face the Bucks at full strength and the combination of Antetonkoumnpo and Middleton will be too much for them. Don't discount the ability of Holiday to take his man in the paint for easy buckets as well. Beyond Adebayo and Butler, the Heat do not possess quality man-to-man defenders. |
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04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics provide several difficult matchups for a Hawks' team that struggles against athletic wings. Both Tatum and Brown will be able to get what they want both going to the rim and on the perimeter and that will force the Hawks to send help to both matchups. This will create tons of good looks from long range for a Celtics team that has thrived on the 3pt shot. The Celtics averaged over 22 3pt field goals per game against Atlanta this season, shooting over 46%, which indicates the Hawks' difficulty with keeping up with the Celtics' inside-out offense. Young will get his points in this series but Boston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can match up multiple players, Marcus Smart and White, to make him work for those points. Murray was not as effective against the Celtics this year thanks to Boston's length at the wing position. Williams III can neutralize Capella on the glass as well and the Hawks simply don't have the depth to match Boston. |
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04-09-23 | Clippers -12.5 v. Suns | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one is an absolute no brainer. As it stands right now, the Suns look like they are going to rest all of their star players - Durant, Paul, Booker and Ayton. So, expect a lot of big minutes from bench players. The Clippers should be playing everyone, because they will need this to lock down a top 6 seed in the West and avoid the play-in. The Lakers and Warriors are both playing at the same time. There is some question as to whether teams will avoid the fifth seed to avoid the Suns, but no one wants to be 7th either. I love the Clippers here. Take the Clippers to win and cover. |
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04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers -16.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has covered the spread in six straight home games against Portland, and I do not expect that trend to end on Saturday afternoon. The Trail Blazers enter this game with no motivation, as they are resting almost all of their key players and are already eliminated from playoff contention. Los Angeles is as motivated as any team in the NBA, as it needs a win to avoid the play-in tournament. The Clippers have won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and should continue their dominance on Saturday. Portland has only picked up one win in its last eight games and is not playing competitive basketball without Lillard. |
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04-08-23 | Nuggets v. Jazz +6.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Throw out all the stats and trends for this game, because you are going to see two teams playing deep bench players. It will basically be like a summer league game. So, any trends I might be able to dig up would not be relevant as they don't pertain to the players who are going to be out on the court for this one. So, I'm going to defer here to the home team. The Jazz are in front of their home fans, the ones that show up for this meaningless game, that is, and that should be enough to push them to a win. Take the Jazz here to win and cover. |
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04-07-23 | Bulls v. Mavs -8.5 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't love backing the Mavs, but it's now or never for them. With Dallas still competing for a play-in spot and the Bulls' postseason hopes already decided, the Mavericks have a strong advantage. Expect to see the Bulls give a lot of minutes and opportunities to players outside of their big three. I expect Chicago to play hard, but they have dropped two straight games by double-digits, and with Dallas' season on the line, I expect them to pull away for a big win. |
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04-07-23 | Raptors +1 v. Celtics | 102-121 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only one of the two teams in this matchup has anything to gain from a win. Toronto will trot out their regular lineup in this one while I expect the Celtics to rest more than at least one of their key players. Toronto has a lot to gain by potentially catching the Hawks in the standings. The Raptors are just 14-26 on the road this season but a far more respectable 26-14 at home. Look for Toronto to control the pace and take advantage of a depleted Celtics roster. |
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04-06-23 | Thunder -6.5 v. Jazz | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have struggled of late and that is why we enter the final days of the season with one team fighting to hang on for the final playoff spot in the West and the other fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Injury issues and the trades that Utah made at the deadline may have bolstered their chances for the future but made things tougher for making the postseason. Oklahoma City is at as close to full strength as they have been in the last couple of months here and they have to be motivated. The Thunder took the last two meetings between the teams last month, both at home: they make it three straight and eliminate the Jazz from playoff contention, with a win here. |
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04-04-23 | Nuggets -9 v. Rockets | 103-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have won five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 112 points per game on the road. They do a good job finding the open man and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Rockets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets aren’t very good defensively and gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Rockets have lost eight of their last nine games and three of their last four home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 114 points per game in their last three games. Their ball movement isn’t very good, but they’ve been attacking the offensive glass relentlessly in recent games, so expect them to get extra-scoring chances. They have been very careless with the ball, even at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who averaged more than eight steals per game in their last three games. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding their last three opponents under 107 points per game, and won’t have trouble keeping Houston’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread. |
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04-04-23 | Celtics +2 v. 76ers | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics take on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in Eastern Conference play today. The 76ers are 8-6 against the rest of their division. Philadelphia averages 115.1 points while outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per game. The Celtics are 9-4 in division play. Boston is second in the Eastern Conference with 35.6 defensive rebounds per game led by Jayson Tatum averaging 7.8. The teams meet for the fourth time this season. The Celtics won 110-107 in the last matchup on Feb. 26. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 26 points, and Embiid led the 76ers with 41 points. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -7 | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Connecticut won on Saturday night with a bruising effort against Miami, leading from start to finish. The Canes were no match for the Huskies and it was clear from the opening tip. The Huskies have won five consecutive games straight-up and are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten overall. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee lost to Boston on Thursday, but that may be good news for Bucks fans, as this team has not lost back-to-back games since January 12-14. They have been consistently the best team in the NBA over the last 10 weeks, and that is bad news for a 76ers team that enters this game as losers of their last three games on the road. The Milwaukee defense has been struggling of late, but they are averaging 124.8 points per game over their last five, and Philadelphia simply does not take enough shots to take advantage of the defensive lapses of the Bucks. Philadelphia has won the last two meetings between these teams, including earning a three-point victory over Milwaukee on March 4. Look for the Bucks to get a little revenge. |
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04-02-23 | Lakers -11 v. Rockets | 134-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles is currently 7th in the Western Conference playoff standings and would take part in the play-in part of the postseason but is within 1 ½ games of sixth place which would mean they would not have to take part in the play-in. At the same time, Los Angeles is only 1 ½ games in front of the 10th and final spot for postseason qualification in the West. Therefore, the Lakers have far more incentive to win than Houston, which has been eliminated from playoff contention and is last in the Western Conference. Houston's offense and defense has struggled all season as the Rockets are next to last in scoring and second from last in points allowed. Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of its last five, while Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five. |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut -5.5 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Miami Hurricanes' first-ever romp into the Final Four, including redemption from last season's Elite Eight loss, has been a great story. The Hurricanes have a terrific backcourt and highly skilled role players that have helped the team average over 80 points per game in the tournament. Unfortunately, the ride ends here. UConn is playing at a level that I haven't seen since the 1990 UNLV Runnin' Rebels stormed through the tournament on the way to the National Championship. The Huskies have an average margin of victory of over 21 points, are shooting the ball at a 50% clip, and hold the opposition to just over 35% shooting. This team can beat you from long range, averaging over 10 made 3pt field goals per game in the tournament, or in the paint, averaging 37.5 points in the paint per game. UConn will turn the ball over on occasion but this Miami team is not built to cause a high number of turnovers, averaging just over 10 forced turnovers per game in the tournament. And, if the Hurricanes start slowly, they will be in major trouble. The average score in the second half of the Huskies' games in the tournament is 46-27. Yes, the Huskies are beating teams by an AVERAGE of nearly 20 points in the second half of their tournament games. UConn will wear Miami down with too much size, too much defensive pressure and just, and just too much. The Huskies will roll into the NCAA Final on Monday night. |
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04-01-23 | Mavs +1.5 v. Heat | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, like Dallas is, and has several key injury designations heading into this pivotal matchup. Three Heat players, Nikola Jovic (back), Kyle Lowry (knee), and Bam Adebayo (hip), are hurt and questionable to play. Only Frank Ntilikina (knee) is questionable to play for Dallas. The betting trends also suggest the Mavericks are the team to have faith in. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days' rest. Taking all of this into account, including Dallas' dominant showing versus Miami earlier this season, I'll bet on the Mavs. |
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03-31-23 | Nuggets +9.5 v. Suns | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thursday’s games have been excluded from the analysis, and the 51-24 Denver Nuggets hosted the New Orleans Pelicans, searching for their fifth consecutive victory. Over their previous four showings, the Nuggets have beaten the Brooklyn Nets 108-102, Washington Wizards 118-104, Milwaukee Bucks 129-106, and Philadelphia 76ers 116-111. Last Monday, Nikola Jokic posted a triple-double of 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists to lift his team over the 76ers, who missed both Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Nuggets shot 50.6% from the field and posted a terrific 34/12 assist-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-31-23 | Hawks v. Nets | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have won two of their last three games including a home win against the Cavaliers on Tuesday. The Brooklyn Nets have been hit or miss recently. They have dropped six of their last eight games including disappointing losses against the Kings and Magic. They only covered twice in that eight-game span. The Hawks continue to dazzle offensively, averaging a remarkable 127 points in their last five games. Atlanta is hot from three-point range where they have connected on 38.6% of their threes in their last three games. This is key as the Nets give up plenty of threes, ranking 25th in the NBA in three-point defense. The Nets have not been reliable at home, going 1-4 in their last five home games, covering just once. |
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03-27-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. Clippers | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls have been red hot lately, going 7-2 over their last nine and have gone 4-1 ATS over their last five, and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and is 4-1 ATS in the five meetings between these teams in Los Angeles. Chicago is playing on back-to-back nights which would seem to give the Clippers a big edge. However, this team is not as good without Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard is battling an injury as well. The Bulls should win this game outright, but look for them to cover the spread regardless. |
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03-27-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Jazz | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah Jazz (35-39) and Phoenix Suns (39-35) have a couple of things in common heading into the home stretch of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of it when it comes to the postseason. And both are trying to make do without key players. And like the Suns did Saturday night against Philadelphia, the Jazz come into Monday's matchup in Salt Lake City hoping to break a three-game losing streak. Utah came close to finding a way to win in Sacramento on Saturday despite missing its three leading scorers: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Consider that the Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah while the Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Creighton has played better than expected in the tournament, especially offensively. They have shot the lights out in their wins over Baylor and Princeton in their last two contests. One has to think that they will have a tougher time shooting the ball against an Aztecs team that held opposing teams to just 40.8% shooting from the floor this season. Depth is also an issue for the Blue Jays as we’ve seen them get a combined 16 points from their bench in their three tournament games, 14 of which have come from Farabello. If Creighton finds themselves in any kind of foul trouble, it’s going to be tough sledding. We just saw San Diego State upend Alabama in a game where Bradley finished with only six points. Look for him to bounce back and help the Aztecs advance to the Final Four. Consider that the Aztecs are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. |
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03-24-23 | Princeton +10 v. Creighton | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Blue Jays’ head coach Greg McDermott is only 2-6 SUATS against foes off a win of greater than 4 points in this tourney. Interestingly, double digit favorites in the Sweet 16, favored by the most points in this round, are 18-3 SU, but have covered in only 7 of the 21 contests (7-12-2 ATS), including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. In addition, double-digit dogs in Sweet 16 games are 15-6 ATS since 1999, including 11-1 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win (10-0 ATS versus sub .880 foes). In fact, teams off a pair of upset wins in the first two rounds are 14-5 ATS in Sweet 16 rounds dating back to 2011, including 7-0 ATS when taking 8 or more points today. |
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03-24-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -13 | 114-151 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is all about identifying value as these teams get set to meet for the second game in a row. Houston covered as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday, so many bettors are going to be surprised that the line is 1.5 points larger on Friday. However, Memphis was playing without Brooks in the first matchup and Morant was playing for the first time in weeks. Brooks will return from his one-game suspension on Friday, and Morant should be in better form after knocking off the rust. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight home games and have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Houston | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston, it should be noted they struggled mightily against quality opposition this season – read: .750 or greater foes – going just 1-7 ATS. Ironically, each of Sampson’s last five losses in The Big Dance have been against foes of a similar ilk (Villanova last season). Miami is undersized, but the Hurricanes have elite guards and a dynamic small-ball big man in Norchad Omier. He's among a group of four Miami players averaging 13 or more points per game. A three-guard attack, led by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, could be a handful, particularly if Houlton’s star G Marcus Sasser is not 100% back from his groin injury |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama -7.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units What has been overlooked this season, is Bama was the No. 20 in the AP preseason poll. Safe to say they have been major overachievers to the point they were awarded the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s tournament. And starting today they own the easiest path to the Final Four with only No. 5, 6 and perhaps 15 seeds in their path. They also bring the best Rebound Margin, and second-best Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Scoring Margins of all teams still remaining in this tournament. San Diego State enters with the second worst Offensive Field Goal Percentage (uh oh). The Aztecs are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014, and third time overall. Seven players average at least 20.0 minutes per game this season, but only one player averages double-digits in scoring. Ironically. SDSU was No. 19 in the AP preseason Top 25, ahead of Alabama. With MWC teams a shivery 3-31-1 ATS in their last 35 outright losses in this tourney, you know exactly what to do. |
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03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee -5.5 | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units CUSA programs are 0-4 SU in this round of the tournament, losing by an average margin of more than more than 10 PPG. Denting Tennessee’s stifling defense is priority one for the Owls if they hope to advance. The Volunteers rank 3rd in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.2) while allowing opponents to shoot just 26.4% from outside the arc, the lowest mark in college basketball. You can poke holes all you want at coach Barnes and his tawdry 20-31 ATS record in this tournament but he’s only the second coach in school history to make multiple Sweet 16s. In the end the pedigree wins out, as it almost always does at this stage. Lay the points. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State +1.5 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Izzo enters on a 1-6 SUATS run of late against Big 12 opponents, as well as 0-3 SUATS in this tournament against No. 3 or higher seeds when coming off a SU underdog win when his troops sport a sub .666 win percentage. The only bad news for Kansas State? No. 3 seeds in the Sweet 16 round are just 3-14 ATS when taking on .714 or fewer opponents. While Izzo stands 16-12 SU in this event versus higher seeded opposition, he’s just 2-4 SUATS in those same games when his troops own a .676 or less win percentage and are facing No. 3 or greater seeds. The bottom line to us is we love higher seeded dogs like KSU, and higher seeded dogs in this round are 11-6 ATS since 1990, including 8-2 SUATS when taking 2 or fewer points. |
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03-22-23 | Rockets +13 v. Grizzlies | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's hard to feel great about betting on the Rockets, but Houston is playing .500 ball over its last 10 games, and none of the previous four losses have been by more than 13 points. Memphis is a far better team, but Houston has not stopped playing hard, and I expect this to be a bit of a distracting night with Ja Morant back, and Dillion Brooks suspended. The Grizzlies will win this game, but I would not lay more than 10 points on the spread in this spot, regardless of how good they have been at home. Memphis will also face Houston again on Friday, so I would not be shocked to see a letdown here. |
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03-22-23 | UAB -1 v. Vanderbilt | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If previous performances are any indication, UAB should kill the Commodores in rebounding, particularly offensively which will lead to ample second-chance scoring opportunities. It nearly sank Vanderbilt against Michigan, and I think it will this time. The Blazers have a tougher defense than the Commodores and an offense that can keep up with them. Even on the road, I'm expecting UAB to win, and with the spread only at one point, the money line is the best option. |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin +3 v. Oregon | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be a tough matchup for the Ducks, who could be without their top three players. Although it's tough to back a team in that situation, Oregon has been extremely impressive shorthanded through their first NIT wins. As impressive as the Ducks have been, I can see so many different scenarios playing out where the Badgers either win or keep this game within five points. Wisconsin has had some extremely close losses this season, including falling to Kansas by only one point earlier this season. Also, five of the most recent six losses for Wisconsin have either come in overtime or been decided by two points or less during regulation. Oregon is one of those teams that can make you look bad either way as a sports bettor. When the Ducks are on, they are very good, but they also have been inconsistent throughout the season. |
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03-21-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans -13 | 84-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans is in the thick of the playoff race while San Antonio is trying to lose games to try and get the first overall pick and turn their franchise around, which is why I like the Pelicans here to win and cover the large spread. Both New Orleans and the Spurs have struggled against the spread this season but San Antonio is 30-41 ATS which is third worst and as a road underdog, the Spurs are 11-22. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 12-12 ATS which is much better than their overall ATS record. As well, this season, New Orleans is 3-0 against San Antonio with the average margin of victory being 15.3 PPG. The Pelicans' offense should have a field day against this Spurs defense which is arguably the worst in the NBA. |
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03-20-23 | Warriors -11 v. Rockets | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors come in slumping but the undisciplined Rockets should be just what the doctor ordered for them on Monday night. Golden State should feast on Houston's struggles to cover the perimeter and will be happy to play this game at an uptempo pace thanks to what should be a bevy of turnovers between the two teams. I am confident that the Warriors will see a major bounce-back game from the Splash Brothers on Monday night and pull away quickly from the hapless Rockets. Golden State is 9-1 in the last ten meetings with Houston and, with ten games left on the schedule, this is a must-win for the defending champs. The Rockets are also just 2-9 in the second game of back-to-back games this season. |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks -8 | 140-134 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have been phenomenal lately, and even appear to have solved their issues at home. They've won eight of 10 at home after a 12-14 start in the Mecca. New York has also beaten the spread in their last three. Then there's Minnesota, who has lost ATS in four of six and owns a 15-20 record on the road (16-19-0 ATS). That's without mentioning they may not have Anthony Edwards or Rudy Gobert for this matchup, their top offensive and defensive player. This game is New York's to lose, and with how they've been playing lately, I don't believe they will. Take the Knicks to cover. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -8.5 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How does one bet against Philly at this point, given the run they are on. They have won 8 straight and 9 of their last 10 and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. They won their last three games on the road and are returning home for this one, so the appreciative Philly fans should give them an added boost. They then turn around and head out on the road again after this one, and that will be a tough stretch. It starts with Chicago again, at Chicago, and that could be a Philly loss. But for this one on Monday -- they will be happy to be home and they will take care of business. Take the Sixers to cover. |
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03-20-23 | Radford v. San Jose State -6.5 | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans have won five of their last six games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better in recent games, scoring more than 69 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding was great during that span and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds per game, so expect them to get a lot of second-chance scoring opportunities., They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Highlanders a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Highlanders usually play well defensively, but they weren’t as efficient in recent games, giving up at least 70 points in two of their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Spartans in this game. The Highlanders have lost four of their last seven games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 70 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement isn’t very good and they don’t rebound the ball as well as the Spartans, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Spartans. The Spartans are very good defensively and they played better in recent games, keeping their last three opponents under 65 points per game, so don’t expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Highlanders in this game. Go with San Jose State to cover the spread. |
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03-20-23 | Eastern Kentucky v. Indiana State -6 | 89-88 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Looking at these teams, the greatest difference between them is on offense. They both play at a high tempo, rebounded well against their conference competition, and know how to stifle opposing offenses. However, Indiana State is typically efficient, hitting almost half of their shots and taking advantage of free throws. Eastern Kentucky is not, only hitting 43.5% of their field goals and missing nearly 35% of their free throws. Expect Indiana State's offense to make the difference in this one when they beat the spread. |
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03-19-23 | TCU +4.5 v. Gonzaga | 81-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units TCU's offense was not their strength this season and had a few lulls on Friday, but overall their performance was impressive considering Arizona State's defense wreaked havoc on a lot of teams this season. That the Horned Frogs hit open threes and free throws could make them very dangerous going forward. Of course, Gonzaga's offense on Grand Canyon, but Grand Canyon's defense was barely 200th in adjusted efficiency this season. TCU's is much tougher at 23rd. Gonzaga's defense isn't great, and Timme's size could pose problems inside for TCU's offense, but I think if they play like Friday the Horned Frogs will take this game. Taking the points is safer though, so I'm going to roll with the spread. |
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03-19-23 | Pittsburgh +5.5 v. Xavier | 73-84 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is allowing an average of just 50.0 points per game in its first two games of the NCAA tournament as the Panthers' defense has tightened. Pittsburgh held Iowa State to 23% shooting overall and 10% shooting from long range. Xavier is a strong shooting team, hitting 50% of its field goal attempts during a regular season, but against first-round opponent, Kennesaw State shot only 17% from behind the three-point line and cannot afford to shoot poorly against the Panthers. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 23 of its last 30 and in four of the last five against a team with a winning percentage above 600. Xavier struggled down the stretch to cover the spread, failing to cover the spread in four of its last five. In intangibles, Xavier must play without Zach Freemantle, who before being injured was the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder for the Musketeers. Freemantle was also one of the court leaders. |
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03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama -8.5 | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland survived a slow start to get past West Virginia but an opening 10 minutes like they had Thursday here could put them in a hole that they would be unable to dig out of against the Crimson Tide. The Terrapins played some stout defense against West Virginia to get through but they were helped by getting the Mountaineers in foul trouble, opening up the interior for easy buckets. Alabama hung 96 on the board with their best player going scoreless while playing just 19 minutes. Granted, Maryland is better defensively than Texas A&M-Corpus Christi but the Crimson Tide have plenty of depth, as evidenced in Thursday’s win. It also helps that they are playing in their home state. Look for that depth to make the difference as Alabama prevails to advance to the Sweet 16. |
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03-18-23 | Penn State +5.5 v. Texas | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I can't turn away from a Penn State team that has thrived in close games down the stretch. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and have gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as the underdog. In addition, Penn State has won six of its last seven games against tournament teams and covered the spread in each game. Further, the veteran Penn State team is not easily rattled and performs well above average in neutral site games. Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last ten neutral site games. I expect Pickett to protect the basketball and create opportunities for his teammates throughout the game. Texas, which likes to move quickly, will be forced to adjust to Penn State's methodical pace of play and I expect this game to be a one-possession contest heading into the final two minutes. With that in mind, points are critical and I will happily take the 5.5 on the board. |
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03-18-23 | Auburn +5.5 v. Houston | 64-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a bit in this contest depends on the health of Sasser and Shead. Sasser was an All-American selection but logging only 14 minutes while scoring five points in the first round was less than what the Cougars were hoping for against the Norse. The Cougars struggled to pull away against Northern Kentucky and one has to wonder if perhaps Sasser did more damage by attempting to play Thursday night. It’s safe to say that Auburn’s offensive production is better than Northern Kentucky’s and will test the Cougars’ defense more than the Norse did. The Tigers can hang on the glass and make things tough for Houston on the offensive end of the floor. Houston may win the game but it’s going to be a war if Sasser is limited or doesn’t play. Take the points and Auburn in what should be a low-scoring affair. |
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03-18-23 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the beginning of February, winning and covering the spread in 11 of its last 14 games The Knicks have also covered the spread in six of their last seven home games, despite struggling at Madison Square Garden earlier in the year. They are facing a Denver team that has been trending in the opposite direction, winning once in its last five games and covering once in its last six games. New York could get an additional boost if Brunson returns, so I will back the team with momentum in this matchup. |
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03-17-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Memphis | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If it’s possible for a 30-win team to fl y under the radar, the Owls are doing just that. So disrespected is FAU, they were actually a 2.5-point dog in the title game of the CUSA tourney when they rolled past UAB, 78-56. They bring a glossy 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS mark into this game when coming of a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games. In addition, FAU is also 11-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off pointspread wins. Enter the American Athletic Conference tourney champion Tigers, off an upset win over a banged up Houston squad. They’ll likely pay the price today, though, as the WOM notes that NCAA tourney fi rst round chalk is just 12-25-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SU win as an underdog in a conference title game. And it doesn’t help Elvis fans knowing Memphis is only 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS against .828 or greater opponents in this tournament. With it, look for the Owls to fl y to 5-0 ATS in their last fi ve meetings against AAC competition tonight. |
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03-17-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Spurs | 126-120 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are some negatives surrounding both of these teams right now, but I feel much better about backing a Memphis team that is motivated to get back on track. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight meetings between these teams, including six in a row in San Antonio. They had won three straight games prior to their loss against Miami, so they have been playing decent basketball without Morant on the court. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only covered the spread five times in its last 20 games. The Spurs have not only been losing games, but they have not been competitive in most of them. |
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03-17-23 | Drake +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 16 m | Show |
Tournament Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Miami, the ACC regular season and Drake, the Missouri Valley conference tournament. A trio of 5thyear senior guards leads the Bulldogs’ attack: Tucker Devries, Roman Penn, and Garrett Sturtz returned with their extra year of eligibility after having led Drake to 95-wins the previous four years. The terrific threesome averaged 42.1 PPG, 16.5 RPG, and 8.3 APG. They match up well with a Miami unit that also emphasizes guard play. The Canes bring a wobbly 1-5 ATS record as a favorite in this tournament into this fray as well as a 0-3 ATS mark in its last three Missouri Valley contests. Making matters worse, Miami mentor Jim Larranaga is just 1-5 ATS as a single digit favorite in this tournament. Meanwhile, Drake closed the season on a 13-1 winning run. In addition, they were 4-1 SUATS against .750 or greater opponents this campaign. However, we saved the best for last, where Drake head coach Darian DeVries is 10-2 SUATS “between the 4’s” in games on a neutral court |
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03-17-23 | 76ers -10.5 v. Hornets | 121-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't expect the Sixers to take a night off at this point, with the team so close to the second spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The two teams have split the previous two meetings this season but haven't squared off since December. Both teams have gone through changes since then and the Sixers are now arguably the hottest team in the NBA. Charlotte will not have any answers for Embiid and he should dominate this matchup. Additionally, I expect the Sixers to exploit Charlotte's mediocre perimeter defense with the league's best 3pt shooting. Charlotte is positioning for the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery while the Sixers are trying to earn home-court advantage in the playoffs. |
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03-17-23 | Providence +4.5 v. Kentucky | 53-61 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Certain games have the look and feel of “upset” written all over them, and this is one. The Wildcats enter fresh off an opening round loss to St. Peter’s last season and are just two years removed from a 9-win season. Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe leads the nation in rebounding (13.1 RPG) while averaging 16.4 PPG. As talented as they are, or can be, the fact of the matter is Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-SEC battles. Providence bolted out of the gate at 14-3 before closing out 7-8. However, Ed Cooley’s clan made it to the Sweet 16 last season as they cashed all three tickets in the tournament. Cooley is a long-term 104-74-4 ATS as a dog, including 19-7 ATS of late. |
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03-17-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Purdue -22.5 | 63-58 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Boilermakers, it’s the first time as a No. 1 seed since 1996. They’ll enter the Big Dance this year seeking their fi rst Final Four appearance since 1980. The Boilermakers have advanced past the Sweet 16 just once in six previous trips as a top-2 seed. They have, however, made the Sweet 16 or better in four of the past five tournaments, but have been eliminated by No. 15 and 13 seeds the past two years. The good new is they are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in NCAA tourney openers under Matt Painter, which should comfortably get them underway against either of the two slop buckets advancing for the “First Four” round. |
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03-17-23 | NC State +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
Tournament Play of the Day There is a large contingent of Vegas wise guys who like this Creighton team, and it’s understandable.After all, the Blue Jays were ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason poll after winning 23 games the previous season despite being beaten up with injuries. The truth of the matter is unless they win two games in this event and make it to the Sweet 16, they will fall short of last year’s effort. That’s the plight we see happening, and with it, we’re not about to lay points with a team under this sort of scrutiny. For openers, Creighton enters with a crummy 7-13 SU and 5-14- 1 ATS record in this tournament since the turn of the century, including 0-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite. On the fl ip side, NC State enters with a sparking 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS record this season in games when coming off a loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. In addition, the Pack is 4-1 SUATS in this tourney when entering off a loss when they sport a greater than .666 win percentage. We’re backing the team playing the better ball as playing on any .666 or greater lined Division-1 team in Round One of the NCAA tournament coming off a loss of 24 or more points if they are facing a sub .740 lined Division-1 foe is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990 |
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03-17-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +10.5 v. Baylor | 56-74 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like Kansas State above, no team has ever won a national championship after losing its fi rst game in the conference tournament. That’s bad news for the Bears, whose season was laced with ups and downs. A 10-2 start was met with a 3-game losing skid. Then a 10-1 winning run was met with a pair of losses, only to close the season out with another pair of defeats. The question is can Scott Drew’s capable band of Bears fi nd another winning streak to close out the season? A cause for concern was that Baylor was outrebounded, 43-15, in its conference tourney loss to Iowa State. If that’s not addressed they could be going into early hibernation. Yes, they’re on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run in this tournament, but all of those games came as a No. 1 seed. On the other side of the coin, the Gauchos have turned into an ATM machine, cashing 19 of their final 27 games, while riding a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS streak into this contest. While they’ve lost all four of their NCAA appearances, they managed to ring the register in those games, going 3-1 ATS. |
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03-16-23 | Penn State +3.5 v. Texas A&M | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Micah Shrewsberry will try to keep the momentum going against what has to be a down-in-the-dumps bunch of Aggies, crushed by Alabama in the SEC title game. A plus for the Lions is their 10-5 SU and 14-0-1 ATS record in their last fifteen games on neutral courts. Sure, the Aggies may be 12-2 ATS as a favorite (9-0 ATS the last nine) since the calendar turned on January 1, but the Lions carry an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS ledger in their last ten games into this contest. They are also 13-5 ATS against .666 or greater opponents this season, including six ATS covers in a row when taking points. This will be Texas A&M’s first trip to The Dance since 2018 but we don’t look for the celebration to go much further. Both teams bring plenty to the table but being major dog lovers, we can’t remain neutral here, not with the Nits on a ‘neutral assault’. |
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03-16-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Houston -19 | 52-63 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston led the country in scoring margin (+16.0) and they play a suffocating style of defense. They’re also 6-0 ATS in games when coming off a double-digit loss. The feeling here is coach Sampson and company will likely be hell-bent on making a statement in this game today. If it weren’t for the Cougars’ worst-in-class 1-6 ATS mark this season in games versus fellow NCAA Tournament teams, we’d consider snapping the rubber band. Nonetheless, the Norse closed like a racehorse, going 7-1 SUATS down the stretch to capture the Horizon League title. They returned 4 starters from last year’s 20-win unit but were only 2-8 ATS in games outside the Horizon. They are 0-2 all-time in this event, as well as 1-24 ATS in their last 25 outright losses. That might be all you need to know today. |
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03-16-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -13 | 139-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won 10 straight games over the Pacers, including 2-0 this season. In that time, Milwaukee is also 8-2 ATS vs. the Pacers. Milwaukee's defense should be able to stifle the Pacers' offense which is just 25th in the league in field goal shooting. On the season, the Bucks are 28-6 at home and 46-10 as favorites. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings with the Bucks and has won just four of its last 17 road games. The Bucks have not shown a proclivity to slow down over the last two months and I don't expect a letdown game here upon their return home from the trip. |
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03-16-23 | Nuggets v. Pistons +15 | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love a contrarian bet, and this one certainly fits the bill. The Nuggets are still the top team in the Western Conference, but they have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and are riding a four-game losing streak overall. They are facing a Detroit team that no one wants to bet on right now, but the Pistons picked up an outright win earlier this week and will be getting a boost when Ivey from a three-game absence. The Pistons have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against Denver, including an outright win earlier this season, and they have value as double-digit underdogs on Thursday. |
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03-16-23 | Oral Roberts +6.5 v. Duke | 51-74 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This is the fourth time in school history that Duke isn’t a top-4 seed, and In the two previous instances, it lost in the first round (2007 as a No. 6 vs. VCU, 1996 as a No. 8 vs. Eastern Michigan). It could happen again here against an Oral Roberts’ squad that returned their top 6 scorers, and 7 of the top 8 from last year’s 19-win unit this season. The Golden Eagles reached the Sweet 16 in 2021, and their current 18-game win streak is the longest in this tournament. Can’t turn down another of the four 30-win teams in this tournament, especially when we get a look at the fact that ACC tourney champions are just 10-20-1 ATS in opening round games in the NCAA Tournament, including 0-7 ATS as a No. 3 or worse seed. |
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03-16-23 | Princeton +14.5 v. Arizona | 59-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zona is now 61-10 under Lloyd as his troops lost to Houston in the Sweet 16 in this tournament last season – his only postseason loss with the Wildcats (8-1). Lloyd’s 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS mark in games against foes coming off a win of more than 8 points also figures to serve them well here today. However, Pac-12 conference champions are only 2-6-1 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament when facing foes coming off a win. As for Princeton, the Ivy Leaguers sport a 10-5 ATS mark in this tourney since 2010, including 7-1 ATS when coming off a win of 7-plus points. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS as a double-digit dog under head coach Mitch Henderson versus winning opponents who are not undefeated, in addition to going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog this season. Remember, all four No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 just twice in the past 25 tournaments and given the Wildcats’ wimpy 2-11-1 ATS ledger in its last 14 dances, we’ll be on the take today. |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston +5.5 v. San Diego State | 57-63 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Considering the Cougars' only NCAA tournament win came way back in 1997, the odds seem stacked against a deep run here. But Charleston has been a tough out in this tournament, as all six games in school history have been decided by 10 or fewer points, despite the Cougars being a 12-seed or worse in four of those five appearances. There are also plenty of hurdles facing the Aztecs in this year’s event. For openers, the Mountain West have never had a team advance beyond the Sweet 16, as opposed to 17 other conferences that have had teams reach the Elite Eight since the MWC was formed in 1999-2000. And it gets uglier as, per ESPN, the MWC is 1-8 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in fi rst round games since 2010. History has not been kind to the Aztecs either, as they’ve gone one-and done in each of the last three Dances while dropping four straight games. They’d also better polish up their 3-point defense for this one – almost half of the Cougars’ shot attempts are from beyond the arc. Add the fact that Charleston fans should descend en masse to the not-so-distant venue in Orlando, and we smell an upset right out of the box. |
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03-16-23 | Utah State v. Missouri +1.5 | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A big concern for Utah State: Per ESPN – Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-23 all time, with 20 straight losses since the only win in 2002. That’s certainly not good news for the Aggies. Especially as they fi nd themselves dressing up as a favorite against the 7th-seeded Tigers. Head coach Ryan Odom, who coached No 16 seed UMBC to its magical upset over top-seeded Virginia in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, guided the Aggies to the NIT last year and the NCAA Tourney this season in his fi rst two years with Utah State. They play a rugged brand of defense but it’s going to take a major effort to move a mountain and overcome the MWC’s putrid history in this tourney. Yes, Missouri will need to overcome a 0-6 SUATS mark in their last six games on the dance floor but they’ll do so knowing they are 10-5 SUATS in this tournament in games in which they sport the better record. It’s showtime for the Tigers. |
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03-16-23 | Furman +6.5 v. Virginia | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Furman is also one of four “double champions” (teams who won both their regular season and postseason conference titles) who are taking points from foes that won neither. We love fading these often-times disappointed favorites, especially with double-confident champions who are ecstatic to be dancing. Hey, the Paladins won their 15 conference games by an average margin of 16 points, and four players take the fl oor here averaging double-digits. Virginia can claim the second-best defense in the tourney, but they’ll need to apply the screws if they don’t wish to get screwed in this lid-lifter |
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03-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is one of those games where the road team probably doesn't want to be there and the home team just wants to beat an ACC squad. Cincinnati's big advantage is on the boards where Virginia Tech ranks 209th in the nation in rebounding margin a -0.1. Virginia Tech is also bad on the road, shooting just 31.8% from long range, while Cincy is holding teams to 31.2% from long range at home. The Bearcats also put up 82.7 points per game on 47% shooting at home. |
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03-15-23 | 76ers v. Cavs +2.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland was clearly doing some load management on Tuesday night to be fully prepared for this critical matchup. The Cavaliers were able to give Mitchell a day off, so their leading scorer and top defender should be fresh on Wednesday. Allen’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, but his return would provide a big boost as well. Philadelphia looked terrible in its first trip to Cleveland this season, getting blown out in a 113-85 final. The Cavaliers top-ranked defense held Embiid to just 19 points in one of his worst outings of the campaign. They need this game worse than Philadelphia as far as the standings go, and I expect them to come up with a big win. |
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03-15-23 | Texas Southern v. Fairleigh Dickinson +2.5 | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The strange thing here is that FDU is playing tonight despite the fact the Knights actually lost to league champion Merrimack in the Northeast Conference championship game. That's because Merrimack is a Division-1 newbie who made the jump from Division II to Division I in 2019, but is serving the last year of a four-year prohibition from NCAA tournament play following its transition. Editor's note: It's such an archaic rule that needs to be abolished. Nevertheless, the Knights went 1-3 SUATS against 'lined' opponents this season (beat St. Joseph's), and are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in this tourney, with their last appearance resulting in an 87-49 loss to top-seeded Gonzaga in 2019. On the other side of the court, 14-20 Texas Southern enters as the only team in this year's Dance with a losing record, yet own the Southwestern Athletic Conference tourney to make its second consecutive trip to this tournament (beat A&M CC in a "First Four" game last year before bowing out, 83-56, to Kansas thereafter. The Tigers did take down Arizona State, 67-66, as a 12-point home dog this season. While they have the experience, FDU is playing with house-money. And we're not betting against the house. |
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03-14-23 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Colorado | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the clash between a couple of defensive-minded teams. Both schools struggle to shoot the ball from deep and are far away from an elite level when it comes to offensive efficiency. Seton Hall makes just 5.8 triples per game (326th in the country) on a 32.8 percentage clip (259th), while Colorado hits 6.5 threes (282nd) on a 31.9 percentage clip (304th). Hereof, I’m expecting to see a tight battle, so give me the underdogs to cover a 4.5-point spread. Both Pirates and Buffaloes have been pretty inconsistent lately, and it’s hard to trust either side. Seton Hall is 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall, though the Pirates have covered the spread in five straight outings on the road. On the other side, Colorado is 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in its past eight contests overall and 3-4 ATS in its previous seven showings at home. |
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03-14-23 | Mississippi State v. Pittsburgh +2.5 | 59-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs a team with a winning record. While the Bulldogs are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. |
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03-14-23 | Bradley +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 62-81 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have been fading this overrated Wisconsin team throughout the season, and I see no reason to stop here in a matchup against a team that will be more motivated. The Badgers had NCAA Tournament aspirations this season, and they were expected to be a threat to make the second weekend. Instead, they flopped in conference play and only covered the spread five times in their last 20 games. Bradley enters this matchup riding a six-game road winning streak and having won 12 of its last 13 games. The Braves were regular-season champs and will be motivated to prove that was not a fluke against a major-conference team. |
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03-14-23 | Lakers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Lakers on the road, as I like the additions that they made at the trade deadline and they will be highly motivated to bounce back after losing their last game to the Knicks. I don't trust the New Orleans Pelicans right now, either. They are currently dealing with injuries, as Ingram is questionable for this game and Zion is still out. This has hurt them all season, and I see that trend continuing in this one. I don't believe the Pelicans will be able to efficiently score against the Lakers, as they have the 14th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will make it tough for the Pels and New Orleans will slowly fall behind in this game. I also trust this Los Angeles offense, as they are averaging the eighth most points per game and they have the 11th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to attack the basket throughout this game and slowly pull away. The Lakers are playing desperately and the Pelicans have continued to slide in the wrong direction. |
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03-14-23 | Toledo +6.5 v. Michigan | 80-90 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Toledo is the hungrier team, with a chip on its shoulder after losing in the MAC Tournament championship. The Rockets were victorious in seventeen straight prior to that game and will be out to prove they can play with a traditional Midwestern power. Toledo's offense is elite and will prove it in Ann Arbor, putting the Wolverines in a tough spot. Will the Wolverines defend their pride and home court in an otherwise unimportant game for a program rich in history? We shall see. |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. SE Missouri State +3.5 | 75-71 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a winning % above .600. Additionally, the Islanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday Games. |
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03-13-23 | Celtics -12.5 v. Rockets | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics won't have any issues rolling along to a big win on Monday night against one of the NBA's worst teams. Even though they'll be hitting the road, that didn't seem to bother them in the first game of their road trip, while Houston has one of the worst home-court advantages in the league. The Rockets' lone advantage this season has been their rebounding but with Sengun questionable, even that expects to be thrown out the window. On the other side, the Celtics' core is getting healthier and healthier and finally regaining the form that saw them dominate the first half of the season. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Celtics are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Philadelphia 76ers and I am going to lay the points at home. They are currently (25-10) inside the Wells Fargo Center this season, as I see them staying hot in this game. They have the advantage on both ends of the court, as they will slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the fourth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the ninth-lowest defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and dominate in this game. The Wizards are only (4-6) in their last 10 and they've continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. Washington won't get enough stops to cover the spread, as they only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing the 16th most points per game. They've struggled to defend on the perimeter, as Philadelphia will get hot from the outside and pull away throughout this game. Philadelphia is scoring the 14th most points per game and they have the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They will score throughout and cover the spread at home |
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03-12-23 | Penn State v. Purdue -7.5 | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Purdue has been dominating the Big Ten all season and they won't stop now. Penn State has shot the ball well in the tournament, but they have not faced a defense like Purdue's. Edey takes away any easy opportunity at the hoop, and Braden Smith is an elite defender who will give Pickett problems on the perimeter. Penn State is also a guard heavy team, they often play four or five guards, which is a terrible matchup when going against Edey. Ohio State played a similar guard heavy lineup, and Edey gave them 32 points and 14 rebounds in an easy win. Edey will do the same here, Penn State does not have an interior defender capable of slowing down Edey inside. The big man dominated all season, and will end the Big Ten season with one more big performance. |
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03-12-23 | Memphis v. Houston -5.5 | 75-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cougars have won 13 straight games and they haven’t lost a game on the road this season. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 73 points per game away from home. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 78 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Tigers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Tigers aren’t very good defensively, giving up more than 74 points per game on the road, and will have a hard time slowing down the Cougars in this game. The Tigers have won four of their last five games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 75 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Cougars and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Cougars, who average more than eight steals per game. The Cougars have played well defensively and held their last three opponents under 60 points per game, so expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Houston to cover the spread. |
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03-11-23 | Arizona +1.5 v. UCLA | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a bit of how this plays out could well be centered on Bona’s status. If he can’t go, the Bruins will have to rely on Mac Etienne and Kenneth Nwuba. That is a major drop not only in production, but in athleticism, as neither one of those guys brings what Bona does to the floor. Potentially having your top big man limited or missing is bad regardless but when you’re dealing with a team with the twin towers duo of Tubelis and Ballo, it puts a lot of pressure on Jaquez Jr. and Campbell to carry a bigger share of the load. Arizona wants to make up for their loss last week at Pauley Pavilion in the regular season finale. The Wildcats have their team ready to go and they are facing a Bruins team that might be worried about avoiding any further injuries. Look for Arizona to claw out a tight win here with both teams preparing for where they’ll end up for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-11-23 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Kent State v. Toledo +1 | 93-78 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When looking at adjusted offensive ratings, there is a huge difference as Toledo is ninth in college basketball with a 119.5 offensive rating while Kent State is currently 135th in the sport with a 107.4 offensive rating. A huge reason why is the difference in the capabilities to knock down threes as the Rockets are second in all of the United States shooting 40.7 percent from beyond the arc as a program while the Golden Flashes are all the way down at 236th in the nation with a 32.9 percentage as a program from distance. All in all, go with the Toledo Rockets to cover the spread. |
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03-11-23 | Texas +2.5 v. Kansas | 76-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Fordham v. Dayton -6.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue -7.5 | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Missouri v. Alabama -9.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
03-10-23 | Cavs +2.5 v. Heat | 115-119 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Cavaliers on the road, as they just took down this same Heat team on Wednesday night and they are the better offensive team in this matchup. They will find different ways to score, as they have the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. They will efficiently score against this Heat defense and slowly pull away throughout this game. Miami will have a difficult time keeping up with the Cavs, as they have continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 26th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the least amount of points per game. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they will be ready for this game on the road. They will clamp down on the Heat and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. The Cavaliers are currently holding their opponents to the least amount of points per game and they have the lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will dominate on both ends of the court and cover the spread in this game. |
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03-10-23 | Nets +4.5 v. Wolves | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though they'll be playing for the second-straight night, the Nets were able to rest their starters on Thursday, which will serve them well in covering the spread and springing the upset in this one. They have the wing talent to make a difference in this one and while the frontcourt has been a disadvantage to them on most nights, this is a matchup where that can be minimized. For the Timberwolves, a lack of solid home-court advantage has been a challenge for them to overcome as well. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest. |
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03-10-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. 76ers | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The history book shows Portland 21-12 SU and 18-13-2 ATS in this series when Philly sports a .426 or greater win percentage, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Meanwhile, the Sixers enter off a same season revenge contest of their own with the Timberwolves toting a 4-12 ATS ledger as home chalk after meetings with Minnesota while having a same-season double revenger on deck with Washington. Connect the dots and put the Trail Blazers on your playlist tonight. |
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03-10-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The teams split two meetings this season with each team winning at home. Miami walloped Duke at home in their previous contest, prevailing by 22 points. Duke has won seven straight games as they have turned things around after a slow start on the offensive end of the floor. The Blue Devils are going to be tested defensively by an explosive Miami offensive unit. Miami does have plenty of experience to build around and they are facing a Duke team that is rather lacking in that department. The Blue Devils have played well of late but Miami has the ability to outgun teams almost at will. Give the Hurricanes the slight advantage as they punch their ticket to the title game. |
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03-09-23 | Nets v. Bucks -12 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have some of the best depth in the NBA and even with their injuries, adding that depth to their homecourt advantage, will be too much for the Nets to overcome. Brooklyn continues their road trip and with fatigue setting in, they don't have the legs to keep up with the Bucks in this one. The biggest difference between these two sides is their rebounding ability and with the Bucks having that advantage on the glass on both ends, their ability to dominate in second-chance scoring will push them forward toward covering the spread in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played off of one day of rest, while they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Dubs have won five out of the last six games against the Grizzlies overall, but they are 5-0 at home during that stretch. On the road, Memphis has beaten the Warriors in four of the last games straight up, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against the Warriors at FedEx Forum. I understand Morant will not be playing, but Memphis is 4-1 straight up in home games without him this season. Both of these teams have been so drastically different at home vs on the road this season. I have to take the home dog here. |