Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-27-24 | Rockets +7 v. Thunder | Top | 132-126 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +7 The Houston Rockets have won nine consecutive games and have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Each of their last six wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around. Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West. They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it. The Rockets should not be catching 7 points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in a terrible spot. The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-112 win at New Orleans last night. All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Thunder last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Rockets tonight. Houston is 12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Rockets are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game. The Rockets also get Jabari Smith (13.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) back from a one-game suspension tonight. Bet the Rockets Wednesday. |
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03-27-24 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +4.5 | Top | 136-124 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. They are coming off a shocking upset win at 9.5-point road dogs at Milwaukee last night in double-OT. Davis played 52 minutes, Russell 50 and Reaves 48 last night. They won't have much left in the tank for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest some guys. I like the Grizzlies when they have both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane healthy, which is the case for tonight. The Grizzlies are also the kind of team that continues to show up every night despite their current standing. They would love nothing more than to upset the Lakers, who are in a huge letdown spot off the win over the Bucks. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season. Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS off a road win this season. This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for Memphis tonight so they will be the much fresher team. Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. |
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03-27-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. 76ers | 108-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
15* Clippers/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They are coming off two straight upset home losses to the 76ers and Pacers. Now they get their shot at quick revenge against the 76ers on the road this time around. They are fully healthy and primed for a big effort. Ty Lue called out his team for being soft, and I expect the Clippers to respond with a blowout win tonight. The 76ers are in a tough spot here returning home from a 4-game road trip after losing by 12 at Sacramento on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers. They will be playing their 15th game in 27 days and haven't had consecutive days off since February. They remain without Embiid and Melton and now Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable tonight. They just don't have much talent outside Tyrese Maxey right now. The Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after failing to cover four of their last five games. Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off two consecutive losses as a home favorite. Bet the Clippers Wednesday. |
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03-26-24 | Mavs v. Kings UNDER 233.5 | Top | 132-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
20* Mavs/Kings TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233.5 The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching. The Mavericks are 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in six of those seven games. Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now. This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now. The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for. The Kings are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall and would be 9-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis. They have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive games now. They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run. Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be on tired legs so I don't expect them to be pushing the tempo. These are also the 6th and 7th place teams in the West right now, so defensive intensity will be high as both are trying to avoid the play-in round. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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03-25-24 | Mavs -8.5 v. Jazz | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -8.5 The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for wins right now and playing like it. They sit in 8th place in the West and currently in the play-in round, but just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for 6th place. They have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Utah Jazz lightly. I love the spot for the Mavericks as they have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go. They beat the Jazz 113-97 as 13.5-point home favorites four days ago to improve to 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Their lone loss came by 7 at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without both Doncic and Irving. The Mavericks are basically fully healthy right now. The Jazz are an absolute mess right now. They are 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. They have lost five consecutive games coming in all by double-digits, and each of their last seven losses have come by 10 points or more. They have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson for much of this stretch and will likely rest both again tonight. Kris Dunn has been suspended for this game as well. Dallas is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. Bet the Mavericks Monday. |
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03-25-24 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 237.5 | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Jazz UNDER 237.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting between the Jazz and Mavericks in the last five days. Dallas won 113-97 for just 210 combined points in that first meeting, and it will be another defensive battle in the rematch that stays well below 237.5 combined points. The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching. The Mavericks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall with 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in five of those six games. This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way theya re playing right now. The Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of their last six games. This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state. Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total. Utah is 9-1 UNDER off a blowout road loss by 20 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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03-25-24 | Blazers v. Rockets -12 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -12 The Houston Rockets have won eight consecutive games and have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Each of their last five wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around. The short-handed Portland Trail Blazers won't be hanging around tonight, either. Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West. They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it. That's why I know they aren't going to take the Blazers lightly tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers. The Blazers have lost six consecutive games coming in. They are without Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant tonight, with Anfernee Simons, DeAndre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle questionable to play as well. I wouldn't be surprised if all of them sit given Portland's current standing. Houston is 11-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Rockets are 25-11 SU & 26-10 ATS in all home games this season. Bet the Rockets Monday. |
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03-24-24 | Thunder v. Bucks OVER 232.5 | 93-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Thunder/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 232.5 Two elite offensive teams that like to get up and down quickly square off tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks rank 6th in pace this season while the Thunder rank 7th. The Thunder rank 3rd in offensive rating while the Bucks rank 5th. The key here is that both teams are fully healthy right now. The Bucks have scored at least 114 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 OVER in those seven games. The Thunder have scored at least 118 points in eight of their last 11 games. The Thunder average 120.7 points per game while the Bucks average 120.6 points per game. The Bucks beat the Thunder 136-132 (OT) in their first meeting in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points. OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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03-24-24 | Pelicans -12 v. Pistons | Top | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -12 The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now going 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 23-point road win at Miami. Six of those eight wins have come by 13 points or more. You can chalk up another today against the hapless Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are just going through the motions right now going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Four of the five losses have come by 13 points or more, including their last three by 27 at home to Boston, by 19 at home to Indiana and by 25 at Boston. Not only are the Pistons going through the motions right now, but injuries are really starting to pile up as well. They are without Ausar Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Simone Fontechio, Isaiah Stewart and Stanley Umude. Their biggest bright spot this season has been double-double machine Jalen Duren, and now he is questionable with a back injury. The Pelicans are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points. The Pistons are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 non-conference home games. Bet the Pelicans Sunday. |
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03-23-24 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 232 | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 232 The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight. Gary Trent Jr. (12.8 PPG) is questionable as well. It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys. They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 11 consecutive games and an average of 105.4 points per game during this stretch. The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 11 games and were just held to 96 points by the Magic, 89 points by the Kings and 103 by the Thunder in their last three games. The Washington Wizards are without PG Tyus Jones (12.0 PPG, 7.3 APG) and Bilal Coulibaly (8.4 PPG) and could be without Jordan Poole (16.6 PPG), who is questionable. They are hampered offensively right now and it has shown as they have scored 119 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games. The Wizards have averaged just 106.8 points per game in their last six games while ranking 24th in offensive rating during this stretch. The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in all five games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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03-23-24 | Kings v. Magic -2.5 | 109-107 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5 The Orlando Magic are the best covering team in the NBA and continue to get disrespected from oddsmakers. The Magic are 42-28 SU & 45-23-2 ATS this season, including 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS at home. They have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with five striaght wins and covers all by 8 points or more. The Sacramento Kings are coming off a 109-102 road loss to the short-handed Washington Wizards. They also needed OT to beat Memphis at home and were upset by New York at home during a 1-3 ATS stretch in their last four. They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Magic with the way they are playing right now. Bet the Magic Saturday. |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240.5 | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Warriors UNDER 240.5 The UNDER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 games overall. They aren't playing as fast as they were early in the season and they have been playing much better defense since trading for Pascal Siakam. They rank 5th in defensive rating in their last seven games, and the shooting struggles of star PG Tyrese Haliburton in recent weeks have been widely documented. He is 21-of-97 (21.7%) from 3 since the All-Star Break. Both the Warriors and Pacers will be motivated to play good defense tonight. The Pacers are trying to avoid the play-in round currently sitting in the 6th seed, and the Warriors are just trying to make the play-in round sitting just 2.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Rockets. They also want to get home court for the play-in round sitting a half-game behind the Lakers for the 9th spot. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Pacers and Warriors with 240 or fewer combined points in six of those seven. They have averaged 219.9 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, so we are have more than 20 points to spare here with this 240.5-point total. Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games against teams that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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03-22-24 | Thunder v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | 123-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Raptors UNDER 231.5 The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight. It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys. They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games and an average of 105.6 points per game during this stretch. The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 10 games and just scored 89 points against the Kings last game. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-4 UNDER in their last 12 games overall. They are no longer lighting up the scoreboard behind held to 119 or fewer points in eight of their last 11 games. But they have bee pretty elite defensively overall and of late, ranking 5th in defensive rating this season. They will shut down the short-handed Raptors tonight. Toronto is 22-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 19-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher. The Raptors are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine home games off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. OKC should win in a blowout tonight, which means no late fouls and a low-scoring 4th quarter. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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03-21-24 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 237.5 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 237.5 The Utah Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of thier last five games overall. This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state. The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching. The Mavericks are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in four of the five games. This total is also too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now. Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings. That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total. Dallas is 7-0 UNDER in home games after covering four of its last five games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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03-21-24 | Bulls v. Rockets -3.5 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -3.5 The Houston Rockets have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the West in covers in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss to the Clippers as 6.5-point dogs. The Rockets now have a legitimate shot to make the play-in and are fighting hard for it. They are just 3 games back of the Warriors and 3.5 back of the Lakers for the final two spots. They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will keep their foot on the gas at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls. The Rockets are 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS at home this season. The Bulls are stuck in no-man's land. They are 4 games behind the 76ers for the 8th seed and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks for the 9th. They are going to be in the play-in, and the most likely is they will be the 9th. They don't have the sense of urgency that the Rockets do right now. They also have some serious injury questions with Patrick Williams out, and both Coby White and Alex Caruso questionable tonight. They may take the cautious approach with those two given their position in the standings. Houston is 12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Rockets are 9-0 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss this season. Bet the Rockets Thursday. |
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03-20-24 | Kings v. Raptors UNDER 234 | 123-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 234 The UNDER would be 5-0 in Kings last five games overall if not for OT. They were at 210 combined points at the end of regulation with Memphis last game, and have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in five consecutive games now. They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch. The Kings will have no problem shutting down the Raptors, who are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight. It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys. They have been held to 119 points or fewer in nine consecutive games and an average of 107.4 points per game during this stretch. The Raptors rank 29th in offensive rating in their last nine games. Toronto is 21-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 18-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher. Sacramento is 45-30 UNDER In its last 75 road games. The Kings are 12-4 UNDER in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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03-20-24 | Bucks +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee +10.5 This line is an overreaction to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks will be without Giannis tonight. We saw what they were capable of without him in their last game when they beat Phoenix 140-129. Ball movement was the key as they had 35 assists on their 51 made FG's including 16 from Lillard and 7 from Middleton, who recently returned from injury and is looking like his former self. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics. They have won and covered six consecutive games while also going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. But they have faced a very soft schedule here of late and will be taking a big step up in class here. Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us even without Giannis is asking too much. Plus, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser are all questionable for Boston tonight, so it's not like they aren't dealing with injuries of their own. Boston is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a road loss. Bet the Bucks Wednesday. |
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03-19-24 | Mavs v. Spurs +9 | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9 The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a 107-105 upset home win over the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Kyrie Irving hit a buzzer-beater with a left-handed floater in one of the luckiest shots you will ever see as a game-winner. It's safe to say the Mavericks are now in a massive letdown spot off that huge win. The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and are improving here down the stretch. That includes upset wins over both the Thunder and Pacers at home, as well as the Warriors on the road. Asking the Mavericks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games off a close win by 3 points or less. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. Bet the Spurs Tuesday. |
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03-19-24 | Pelicans -7 v. Nets | Top | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7 The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. It's easy to see why as they are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case. They are 5th place in the West and motivated to avoid the play-in. The Brooklyn Nets are coming off an upset loss to the Spurs and are now just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with losses to the lowly Pistons and Hornets as well. They clearly aren't too concerned with making the play-in as they trail the Hawks by 4 games now. Had they gone just 3-3 they'd be two games back. This is a dead team walking right now. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and outscoring them by 18.8 points per game. The Pelicans beat the Nets 112-85 in their lone meeting this season. New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. |
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03-18-24 | Knicks v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5 The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA. They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating. They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense. The UNDER is 8-1 in Knicks last nine games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games. The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him. Their last five games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points, a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points and a 98-91 win over Sacramento for 189 combined points. The books just can't set their totals low enough. The Golden State Warriors have been much better defensively since getting Draymond Green back. These teams met back on February 29th with Golden State winning 110-99 for just 209 combined points. It should be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight. New York is 8-0 UNDER after allowing 100 points or less in two straight games this season. The Knicks are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season. The UNDER is 15-5 in Warriors last 20 games overall. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New York) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 224 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Jazz UNDER 224 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Minnesota and Utah just squared off on Saturday with the Timberwolves winning 119-100 for 219 combined points. This should be another defensive battle tonight in the rematch. Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Timberwolves rank 1st in defensive rating and 22nd in pace. They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (22.1 PPG) right now, so they are having to rely even more on defense. Utah has been without two of its top three scorers in Lauri Markkanen (23.1 PPG) and Jordan Clarkson (17.4 PPG) for an extended stretch now. Points haven't been nearly as easy to come by without these two, and since they are basically eliminated from playoff contention it wouldn't make much sense to rush either back. The UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings between the Timberwolves and Jazz this season with 219, 191 and 218 combined points in those three. It will be more of the same in the 4th and final meeting tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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03-18-24 | Cavs v. Pacers -6.5 | 108-103 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -6.5 Cleveland will be without Donovan Mitchell (27.4 PPG), Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) and Max Strus (12.2 PPG) tonight. Not having Mitchell in the lineup here of late has really hampered them offensively as they have averaged just 106.0 points per game in their last eight games. They have gone just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have been consistently overvalued due to these injuries. The Indiana Pacers sit in 6th place in the East just a half-game ahead of both the Heat and 76ers for the 7th and 8th seeds, which would be the play-in teams. They desperately want to avoid the play-in and are playing like it. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins by 14 at Orlando, by 10 at OKC and by 21 at home over Brooklyn. The lone loss came in OT to the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back after the upset win at OKC, which was predictable. They are fresh right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days as well. Bet the Pacers Monday. |
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03-17-24 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 217 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Magic UNDER 217 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Orlando just beat Toronto 113-103 on Friday for 216 combined points. Now these teams face off again in Orlando tonight, and another defensive battle will be the result. Orlando is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Magic rank 4th in defensive rating and 26th in pace. The UNDER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 games overall with 216 or fewer combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 10-6 in Raptors last 16 games overall. Injuries have made points very hard to come by for the Raptors here of late. They are missing arguably their three best players in Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett right now. They have lost eight of their last nine games while ranking 27th in offensive rating during this stretch. Toronto is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 games off a home loss by 10 points or more. Orlando is 170-128 UNDER in its last 298 Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-17-24 | Heat v. Pistons UNDER 215 | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 215 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Heat and Pistons after they just combined for 203 points on Friday. It will also be the 3rd meeting in 13 days between these teams, so they are very familiar with one another to say the least. Miami is a dead nuts UNDER team. The UNDER is 12-3 in Heat last 15 games overall. The Heat rank 28th in pace this season and 9th in defensive rating. Injuries are really hampering them offensively right now as they are without Herro, Richardson, Love and Jovic plus Jimmy Butler is questionable. The Detroit Pistons have been a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline where they lost their two best shooters in Bogdanovic and Burks. The UNDER is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pistons and Heat with 212 or fewer combined points in seven of those 10 games. Detroit is 8-0 UNDER in home games off two consecutive home games this season. Miami is 42-24 UNDER in all games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-17-24 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 129-140 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5 Milwaukee has been a dead nuts UNDER team since Doc Rivers took over as head coach. The Bucks are 16-3-2 UNDER in their last 21 games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in 14 of their last 17 games. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Suns last 13 games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in eight of their last 11 games overall. The books have set this total too high today. I love betting UNDERS in early start games on Sunday's. Usually teams are sleep walking through the first half because they aren't used to playing this early in the day. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Suns and Bucks with 220, 220 and 205 combined points. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-16-24 | Knicks v. Kings UNDER 219.5 | Top | 98-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5 The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA. They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating. They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last eight games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games. The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him. Their last four games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points and a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points. The books just can't set their totals low enough. The Sacramento Kings are much better defensively than they get credit for. That has been on display in their last two games holding the Lakers to 107 points and the Bucks to 94 points. I think they can hold the Knicks in check today as well. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 points (New YOrk) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 22-4 (84.6%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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03-16-24 | Thunder -9.5 v. Grizzlies | 118-112 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the West with a lot to play for right now. They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more and 10 wins by 7 points or more. I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Memphis Grizzlies tonight. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Grizzlies and they continue to pile up late in the season. They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall with three wins coming against the Nets, 76ers and Wizards. They have been blown out on a regular basis, including a 124-93 loss at OKC on March 10th less than a week ago. It will be more of the same tonight. Bet the Thunder Saturday. |
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03-15-24 | Heat v. Pistons +8.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +8.5 The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost 118-110 at Miami as 11-point dogs during this stretch, and now they'll want revenge as 8.5-point home dogs in the rematch tonight. I think this is a flat spot for the Heat, who fell short in their bid for revenge on the Denver Nuggets in their last game. They lost 100-88 to fall to 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games. They are now 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and grossly overvalued. They are without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now, and the Terry Rozier experiment just isn't working out. Miami is 3-11 ATS off two consecutive losses this season. Detroit is 11-3 ATS off two consecutive home games this season. The Heat are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing record. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Detroit) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Pistons Friday. |
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03-15-24 | Suns v. Hornets +10 | 107-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10 The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. This young team just keeps showing up on a nightly basis. They will relish the opportunity to try and take down the Phoenix Suns at home tonight. The Suns are in a terrible spot here. They failed to get revenge in a 127-112 road loss at Boston last night after losing to the Celtics at home less than a week earlier. Now they are in a flat spot here as they won't nearly be as motivated to beat the Hornets tonight. This is also a sandwich spot for the Suns, who have another big game on deck at Milwaukee on Sunday. They are a tired team after Devin Booker played 38 minutes, Bradley Beal 36, Kevin Durant 34, Grayson Allen 36 and Jusuf Nurkic 31 last night. They have zero depth, so they can't handle this back-to-back situations as well as other NBA teams with depth. The Suns are 7-21 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season. Bet the Hornets Friday. |
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03-14-24 | Knicks v. Blazers UNDER 206.5 | Top | 105-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Blazers UNDER 206.5 The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA. They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating. They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense. The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games. The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him. Their last three games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points and a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points. The books just can't set their totals low enough. The Blazers are really struggling to score right now with all of their injuries. The Blazers rank 28th in the NBA in offensive rating. They also prefer to play slow like the Knicks ranking just 23rd in pace. This game will be slowed to a crawl, and both teams will struggle offensively. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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03-14-24 | Suns +6 v. Celtics | Top | 112-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
20* Suns/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +6 I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight. They just got Devin Booker back from injury and promptly beat Cleveland on the road last time out. Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and nearly fully healthy for this rematch against the Boston Celtics tonight. The Suns didn't have Booker when they lost 117-107 at home to the Celtics on March 9th. So they will now be out for revenge on the Celtics from that defeat, and I like their chances of staying within 6 points and possibly pulling off the upset in the rematch. Boston doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way and will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Suns again. This is a terrible spot for the Celtics, who are returning home from a 5-game road trip. I always like fading teams in that first home game back from a long road trip because there are a ton of distractions to deal with back at home. They will also be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days, will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight, and could be without Jaylen Brown who is questionable. This is a tired team right now. The Suns are the fresher, more motivated team, which is exactly the type of team I'm looking to back in the NBA. Bet the Suns Thursday. |
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03-13-24 | Lakers +1 v. Kings | 107-120 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. They have won three of their last four games beating three of the top teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Bucks and Timberwolves. Now they have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first three meetings this season with the Kings, including blowing a double-digit lead in their lone loss in their last four games. The Lakers have a massive rest advantage here. They have had the last two days off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night. That win ended a 15-game losing streak to the Bucks, so this game has letdown written all over it for the Kings, who won't be that motivated to beat the Lakers again. Sacramento is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. The Kings are 4-13 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season. Bet the Lakers Wednesday. |
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03-13-24 | Nuggets v. Heat +4.5 | 100-88 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +4.5 This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Miami Heat off three consecutive losses. They lost two tough road games to Dallas (by 6) and OKC (by 7) before having a letdown at home in an upset loss to the Wizards. They were clearly looking ahead to this game against the Denver Nuggets. Miami wants revenge after losing 4-1 to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals last season. They also lost a 103-97 heartbreaker at Denver just a few games ago on February 29th. Now they get the Nuggets at home and I think it will make all the difference. This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three consecutive games and nine of their last 10 games overall. They won't be that motivated to beat the Heat again tonight. This game has letdown written all over it for the Nuggets. Denver is 4-12 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games off an loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent. Bet the Heat Wednesday. |
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03-13-24 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 215 | Top | 100-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Miami and Denver met in the NBA Finals last season and this will be their 2nd meeting this season. These games have been very low-scoring, and this one will be another defensive battle tonight. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Heat and Nuggets dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals. They have combined for 203 or fewer points in five of those six meetings and an average of just 200.8 combined points per game. That's over 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 215, so there's clearly value with the UNDER. Both Miami and Denver are dead nuts UNDER teams as it is. Miami ranks 28th in pace while Denver ranks 27th in pace this season. The Heat rank 9th in defensive rating while the Nuggets rank 10th. This game will be played at a snail's pace again tonight. Miami is 18-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season. Denver is 22-12 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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03-12-24 | Wizards -127 v. Grizzlies | 97-109 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards ML -127 The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now. They are playing a G League team due to all of their injuries. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. have been playing well to keep them competitive at times, but not both of those guys are out. They have 10 players listed as out and another 3 players questionable heading into tonight with the worst injury report of any team. The Washington Wizards continue to show up every night and are coming off consecutive wins over the Hornets by 12 at home and an upset win at Miami as 11.5-point dogs. They have done their best work on the road going 21-12-1 ATS in their 34 road games. They should make easy work of the depleted, unmotivated Grizzlies tonight. Washington is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. Southwest Division opponents. Memphis is 2-10 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Grizzlies are 0-9 ATS in home games against bad defensive teams that allow 48% or higher the last two seasons. Bet the Wizards on the Money Line Wednesday. |
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03-12-24 | 76ers v. Knicks -6 | 79-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6 The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for revenge from a bad 79-73 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday. They couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, hitting 32.5% as a team and 9-of-40 (22.5%) from 3-point range. They won't shoot that poorly again, and there's a good chance OG Anunoby returns from injury tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable. Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 10-20 without him this season. The 76ers are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid. They are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games overall and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games. They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs. That was a rare win over the Knicks on Sunday without Embiid. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that is off a road win are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. Plays on favorites (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Knicks Tuesday. |
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03-12-24 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 209 | Top | 79-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 209 The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA. They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating. They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense. The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in five of those six games. That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic two games ago and their 79-73 loss to the 76ers last game. The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG). They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games, including 99 or fewer five times. The UNDER is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. These teams just combined for 152 points on Sunday, so we have a lot of margin for error here in the rematch taking this UNDER 209. New York is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season. The Knicks are 11-3 UNDER in home games when revenging a loss this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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03-11-24 | Mavs -3.5 v. Bulls | 127-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 The Dallas Mavericks traded for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and both are making significant contributions. C Dereck Lively II returns tonight and is their best defender and a key contributor. So the Mavericks are fully healthy heading into this game against the Chicago Bulls, and a dangerous team when that's the case. This is a very tough spot for the Bulls. They are coming off an impressive 4-game road trip in which they won their first three games over the Kings, Jazz and Warriors, but then blew a double-digit lead in a 10-point loss to the Clippers in the finale. I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip. This is a tired Bulls team playing in their 5th different city in 8 days. Dallas is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Mavericks have done their best work on the highway against teams like the Bulls that they are supposed to beat. Bet the Mavericks Monday. |
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03-11-24 | Warriors v. Spurs +4.5 | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls two games ago. Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA. The Warriors should not be favored on the road over the Spurs without him. The Warriors are 81-146 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-4 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder, by 11 at the Bucks and by 13 at home to the Spurs despite being 11-point favorites last time out. San Antonio has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is still continuing to show up every night. The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs two games ago despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat. They beat the Warriors by 13 as 11-point dogs without both Wembenyama and Devin Vassell last time out. Well, they are expected to get both Wembenyama and Vassell back for tonight's rematch. Golden State is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in. The Warriors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that wins 25% or less of their games on the season. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Spurs Monday. |
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03-11-24 | Suns -6 v. Cavs | Top | 117-111 | Push | 0 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -6 This is a very tough spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They are short-handed right now playing without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Dean Wade. I don't think they'll have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight. I like the spot for the Suns coming off a tough home loss to Boston despite playing without Devin Booker. But Booker makes his much anticipated return from injury tonight, and the Suns have been a dangerous team this season when Booker, Durant and Beal have been on the court at the same time. They should handle the Cavaliers in this spot. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Suns Monday. |
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03-10-24 | 76ers v. Knicks -6.5 | 79-73 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -6.5 Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-20 without him this season. But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG). Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid. They are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games overall and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games. They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs. They won't be able to hang with the Knicks on the road, either. The Knicks just got Jalen Brunson back from injury and it made all the difference in a 98-74 home win over the Orlando Magic. Brunson looked to be back to his former self scoring 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting including 4-of-7 from 3-point range. This team goes as he goes, and they should make easy work of the short-handed 76ers tonight. New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Bet the Knicks Sunday. |
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03-10-24 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 211.5 | Top | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 211.5 The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA. They get after it defensively ranking 9th in defensive rating. They are missing key offensive pieced in Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now so they have rely even more on defense. The UNDER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in four of those five games. That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic last time out. The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing their top two scorers in Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG) as well as De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG). They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games, including 99 or fewer four times. The UNDER is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. New York is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-09-24 | Spurs +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 126-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9.5 The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls last time out. Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA. Asking the Warriors to win this game by double-digits to beat us without Curry is asking too much. San Antonio has quietly gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and is still continuing to show up every night. The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs last game despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat. Wembenyama doesn't mean nearly as much to this team as Curry does for the Warriors, and his absence is being factored into this line too much. The Warriors are 81-145 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-3 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder and by 11 at the Bucks. Bet the Spurs Saturday. |
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03-09-24 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 234 | 142-124 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Pistons OVER 234 The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 9th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. They are without their best defender right now in C Dereck Lively II (7.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG) and the Pistons should have a field day getting easy buckets at the rim without him. The Mavericks and their opponents have gone for 236 or more combined points in seven of their last game games overall. The lone exception was against a dead nuts under team in the Miami Heat who are also banged up. The Pistons have been playing a lot of good defensive and under teams here of late in the Nets, Heat, Magic (twice), Knicks, Cavs and Bulls in their last seven games. Their last game against a team with a similar profile to Dallas was the Pacers eight games ago, and they went for 244 combined points. The Pistons rank 29th in defensive rating this season. Dallas is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season. Detroit is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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03-08-24 | Magic -1 v. Knicks | 74-98 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -1 Injuries have really hurt the New York Knicks here down the stretch. The Knicks are 4-9 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a result with their four wins coming against the Pistons by 2, the Grizzlies, the short-handed 76ers and the short-handed Cavs. They are coming off a 16-point home loss to the short-handed Hawks. The Knicks have been without Julius Randle (24.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG) during this entire stretch. Jalen Brunson (27.2 PPG, 6.6 APG) has played in most of these games and he just cannot do it on his own. But now Brunson is battling injury due to such a heavy workload. He missed their last two games and is questionable to play tonight. The Orlando Magic have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season. The Magic are 37-26 SU & 40-21-2 ATS this season. They are really rolling right now going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game. They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case. Orlando is 19-5 ATS as a favorite this season. New York is 12-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Magic should be bigger favorites given the circumstances tonight, but the Knicks continue to get respect when they shouldn't be. Bet the Magic Friday. |
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03-08-24 | Pelicans -7.5 v. 76ers | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 The New Orleans Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season going 16-6 SU & 14-8 ATS in their last 22 road games. They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case. They beat Indiana by 27 at home and Toronto by 41 on the road in their last two games coming in. The Pelicans couldn't be any fresher right now as not only did they have the All-Star Break, but they will now be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days tonight. I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers in this one. Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-19 without him this season. But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player as well in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG). Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid. They are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games overall and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games. They just lost by 6 at home to the Grizzlies as 5.5-point favorites in their last game. It won't get any easier tonight against the Pelicans. New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games while consistently being overvalued at home. Bet the Pelicans Friday. |
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03-07-24 | Celtics v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5 The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts UNDER team. The Nuggets are 14-4-1 UNDER in their last 19 games overall. That push came against the Suns last game with a total of 224 that went to OT and was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for 204 combined points. What makes the Nuggets such an UNDER team is that they rank 27th in the NBA in pace and like to really slow it down. They also rank 9th in defensive rating. They face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 2nd in defensive rating tonight, so these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. That played out in their first meeting this season as the Nuggets beat the Celtics 102-100 for just 202 combined points. The Nuggets even shot 51.9% from the field in that game as it was played at a snail's pace. It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight with the defensive intensity being very high for this potential NBA Finals preview. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five games overall. Denver is 11-2 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 227.5 | Top | 90-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
20* Bucks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5 Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach. The Bucks are 14-1-1 UNDER in their last 16 games overall. They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in 10 consecutive games. The Bucks rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games. They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well. The Bucks could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again tonight after he missed the last game with an Achilles injury and looked seriously injured in warmups. But they have been a dead nuts UNDER team with or without Giannis. The UNDER is 12-2 in Warriors last 14 games overall. They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury. They have gone UNDER the total in seven consecutive games now. Golden State is 14-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season. Milwaukee is 8-0 UNDER in non-conference road games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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03-06-24 | Cavs v. Hawks -121 | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks ML -121 This play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Cavaliers than anything. Cleveland is in a massive letdown spot after coming back from 22 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Boston Celtics 105-104 last night. Now the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. Not to mention, Cleveland is already short-handed without two of its best players in Donovan Mitchell (28.0 PPG) and Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG), plus Max Strus (12.2 PPG) is questionable after sitting out last night. That's three of their top six scorers. The Cavaliers will have nothing left in the tank for tonight. Atlanta has a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Nets for the final play-in spot in the East. The Hawks have shown some fight going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games with blowout wins over Orlando by 17, Utah by 27 and New York by 16. The Hawks will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but that factor is lessened by the fact that they had two days off prior to beating the Knicks 116-100 last night. They are much healthier and much deeper than the Cavaliers right now as well. Plays on home favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Atlanta is favored for good reason tonight. Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Wednesday. |
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03-06-24 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 223.5 | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Wizards OVER 223.5 The Orlando Magic have gone under the total in six consecutive games. Because of this, we now have the opportunity to 'buy low' on an OVER in a game involving the Magic. Now they face a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season. The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Wizards and Magic with 225 or more combined points in all six. The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings this season with 246, 255 and 259 combined points. Those three totals were all set at 235.5 points or higher, and now this total is 12 points lower than that at 223.5. That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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03-05-24 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | 110-118 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Heat UNDER 217.5 The Miami Heat are a dead nuts UNDER team. The Heat are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall. They rank 28th in pace, 8th in defensive rating and 21st in offensive rating this season. They are missing key scorers in Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now as well to make them even more of an UNDER team. The Detroit Pistons have become a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline and losing their best shooter in Bogdanovic to the Knicks. The Pistons are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall. They have gone for 200, 210 and 214 combined points in their last three games. They are struggling to find offense outside Cunningham and Ivey, and they are built for defense right now starting Duren, Thompson and Stewart inside. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Detroit and Miami with 212 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5 Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach. The Bucks are 13-1-1 UNDER in their last 15 games overall. They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in nine consecutive games. The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games. They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well. They face a Clippers team that ranks 21st in pace and 12th in defensive rating. It's a Clippers team without Russell Westbrook right now. The Clippers are coming off a 89-88 road win at Minnesota last night that saw just 177 combined points. They will now be a tired team and could elect to rest some guys. They won't be looking to push the tempo at all playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. The Clippers and Bucks have combined for 225 and 211 points in their last two meetings, which both went UNDER the total. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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03-03-24 | Thunder -5.5 v. Suns | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
15* Thunder/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -5.5 I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They are coming off an upset road loss at San Antonio in one of their worst performances of the season. They had gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their previous ix games with all six wins coming by 13 points or more. They simply had a letdown and may have been looking ahead to this game against Phoenix. Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest. The Suns are a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-109 loss to the Rockets on Saturday. They lost Devin Booker to injury in that defeat and I have to think he is out for this one as well. Plus, Jusuf Nurkic, Royce O'Neale and Eric Gordon are all questionable. Kevin Durant is tired and Bradley Beal is not playing full minutes yet. The Suns are a mess right now. Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 130 points or more. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after three or more consecutive unders. The Suns are 0-8 ATS in home games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season. Bet the Thunder Sunday. |
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03-03-24 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
20* Knicks/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5 The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Knicks and Cavaliers with 201 or fewer combined points in all seven meetings. Both teams have some key injuries right now that are hampering them offensively as well. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-03-24 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 230.5 | 88-140 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Warriors/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 230.5 The UNDER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 games overall. They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury. Now Stephen Curry and Brandon Podziemski are questionable to play today, and Andrew Wiggins is out, so points could be very hard to come by for the Warriors. The Celtics rank 3rd in defensive rating and may be without Kristaps Porzingis today. Boston isn't looking to push the pace either ranking 19th in pace. Golden State is 13-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-03-24 | 76ers v. Mavs -7.5 | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -7.5 The Dallas Mavericks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and are fully healthy for basically the first time all season. The Mavericks have three road losses to Indiana, Boston and Cleveland during this stretch, but they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home with all four wins coming by 8 points or more including a 35-point win over OKC and a 10-point win over Phoenix. The 76ers are 26-8 with Joel Embiid and 8-17 without him. They have gone 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall and have been grossly overvalued without him. Not to mention, they are without another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton right now, while Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable. I just can't see them being able to keep pace with the Mavericks today. Bet the Mavericks Sunday. |
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03-02-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers -103 | Top | 124-114 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK The Los Angeles Lakers know the playoffs are approaching and are playing with a sense of urgency. They are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Nuggets. It was their 2nd loss to the Nuggets this season, and they were swept by them in the Western Conference Finals last year in four games that all went down to the wire. It's safe to say the Lakers will be highly motivated for revenge tonight. I like them to get their revenge considering they are about as healthy as they have been all season, while the Nuggets have some key injury concerns. Jamal Murray was forced from their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable to play tonight. Fellow starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is questionable as well. That is two key scorers they could be without, but I like the Lakers to get it done either way. Denver is 3-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Lakers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games. Los Angeles is 20-9 SU at home this season. Denver is 17-14 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road. Bet the Lakers Saturday. |
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03-01-24 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 221.5 | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
20* Bucks/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5 Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach. The Bucks are 12-1-1 UNDER in their last 14 games overall. They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in eight consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in seven of them. The Bucks rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games. They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well. Now they take on a Chicago Bulls team that doesn't like to run at all. The Bulls rank 29th in the NBA in pace this season. Chicago is 3-2 UNDER in its last five games overall and would be 4-1 if not going to double-OT against the Cavaliers last time out. The Bulls have gone for 220 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games. Chicago is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games off two consecutive division games. The Bucks are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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03-01-24 | Pacers v. Pelicans OVER 238 | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 238 The Indiana Pacers are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case. They face another fully healthy New Orleans Pelicans team tonight that is also an elite offensive team when that's the case. This one has shootout written all over it. These teams just met on Wednesday with the Pacers winning 123-114 at home for 237 combined points. But that was a bad spot for the Pelicans playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so they were tired and did not shoot it particularly well in a game that was played at a break-neck pace. Both teams will be fresh after having yesterday off and will shoot it better in the rematch tonight that should also be played at a break-neck pace again. New Orleans is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 home games off an ATS loss. Any total below 240 in a game involving the Pacers who rank 2nd in pace and 2nd in offensive rating this season is rare. We'll take advantage and back the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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03-01-24 | Mavs v. Celtics OVER 237.5 | 110-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
15* Mavs/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 237.5 The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are on the court at the same time. They rank 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating this season, but those numbers are even better with these two on the court. They have been for their last four games and have combined for 251, 240, 244 and 236 points with their opponents in their first four games back from the All-Star Break. Now the Mavericks face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 1st in offensive rating this season and is the best offensive team in the game when fully healthy, which is the case right now. This one has shootout written all over it between these two elite offensive teams. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 OVER in road games when revenging a home loss this season. Boston is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards last game. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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03-01-24 | Cavs v. Pistons +9.5 | 110-100 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5 The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall and continue to show up every night. They followed up their tough 113-111 loss at New York as 11.5-point dogs with a 105-95 upset as 10.5-point dogs at Chicago on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Now the Pistons have had the last two days off and are fresh and ready to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money. Cleveland has been grossly overvalued of late going 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall. Donovan Mitchell is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury and is unlikely to go. This is a tired Cavaliers team that will be playing their 6th game in 9 days. Asking them to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Detroit will be playing with triple revenge this season losing the first three meetings to the Cavaliers by 7, 9 and 8 points. The Pistons don't want to get swept, and if they do a 9-point loss or less works for us. The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. The Pistons are 18-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season. Bet the Pistons Friday. |
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03-01-24 | Hornets v. 76ers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers UNDER 214.5 The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts UNDER team right now. Charlotte is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in nine consecutive games, including 213 or fewer in six of those. The Hornets have allowed an average of 103.1 points per game in their last eight games, and they have scored an average of just 90.3 points per game in their last four, which is atrocious in today's NBA. The Philadelphia 76ers have really been struggling offensively without Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG). They have scored 104 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of 100.2 points per game during this stretch. Now they just lost another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG) to injury. Points will be hard to come by for both teams tonight. Charlotte is 32-11 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 217 or fewer combined points in four of the five, and 208 or fewer in three of them. They combined for 186 points in their most recent meeting this season in January 20th. It will be more of the same tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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02-29-24 | Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 131-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
20* Wizards/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +9.5 The Los Angeles Lakers are in a brutal spot tonight. They came back from 21 points down in the 4th quarter to beat their hated rivals in the Los Angeles Clippers last night. It was the largest comeback of LeBron James' career in the 4th quarter, and he was the catalyst. Now the Lakers are a very tired team with James questionable to play tonight in the 2nd of a back-to-back. He played 37 minutes, Anthony Davis 36, Russell 34 and Reaves 36 last night. They aren't a very deep team right now due to missing Wood, Vincent and Vanderbilt as well. The Wizards will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the Lakers on the road. They have played their best basketball on the road this season going 19-10-1 ATS in road games. They had yesterday off and took both the Cavaliers and Warriors to the wire in their last two games, so they have been competitive and have not quit. The Lakers are 1-10 ATS off a road win this season. Washington is 11-2 ATS in road games after going under the total in its previous game this season. The Wizards are a perfect 11-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the Wizards Thursday. |
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02-29-24 | Heat +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
20* Heat/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Miami +5 The Miami Heat want revenge after losing 4-1 in the NBA Finals to the Denver Nuggets last season. This is their first chance at revenge in the 2023-24 season, and I expect them to take advantage now that they are playing their best basketball of the season, plus the fact that they have the rest advantage. The Heat are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone losses coming by 4 to Boston and by 8 to the Clippers. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six road games including upset wins at Milwaukee by 26 as 8-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 5 as 3-point dogs, at New Orleans by 11 as 3-point dogs and at Sacramento by 11 as 7.5-point dogs. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a very weak schedule. Their lone impressive win was at Golden State, but they also beat Washington and Portland and Sacramento without De'Aaron Fox. The Nuggets needed a comeback win last night against the Kings, and Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after scoring 32 points on 13-of-15 shooting. I'll gladly fade the Nuggets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. Bet the Heat Thursday. |
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02-29-24 | Thunder v. Spurs OVER 236 | 118-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs OVER 236 The OVER is 7-2-1 in Thunder last 10 games overall with 236 or more combined points in seven of their last nine games. They have combined for 232 or more points with nine of their last 10 opponents. They rank 3rd in offensive rating this season. The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season. The Spurs and their opponents have combined for 237 or more points in three of their last four games coming out of the All-Star Break. The lone exception was against the Timberwolves, who are a dead nuts UNDER team being the best defensive team in the NBA. These teams met earlier this year with the Thunder winning 140-114 on January 24th for 254 combined points. It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight. San Antonio is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games off three or more consecutive road games. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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02-29-24 | Warriors v. Knicks UNDER 223 | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
15* Warriors/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223 The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 11th in defensive rating this season. They are missing Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, plus Jalen Brunson is questionable with a neck injury to really hamper them offensively right now. They have scored 113 or fewer points in seven consecutive games, including 92 against the Pelicans without Brunson last time out. The Golden State Warriors are playing much better defensively since getting Draymond Green back from suspension. The Warriors are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall. They have allowed 112 or fewer points in 10 of those 14 games. They are without Andrew Wiggins right now which hurts them offensively. The UNDER is 19-11 in New York's 30 home games this season, which are averaging 220.3 combined points. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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02-29-24 | Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 218.5 | Top | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 218.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting between the Bucks and Hornets in two weeks. The first two stayed well UNDER their totals with 204 and 208 combined points, and it will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight. Both the Hornets and Bucks are dead nuts UNDER teams right now. The Hornets have allowed an average of 102 points per game in their last seven games, which is unheard of in today's NBA. Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Bucks interim head coach. The Bucks are 11-1-1 UNDER in their last 13 games overall. They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in seven consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in six of them. Charlotte is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in eight consecutive games. Charlotte is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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02-28-24 | Mavs v. Raptors +3 | Top | 136-125 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +3 The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 to Indiana going into the break. They have come out of the break on fire with a 28-point win over Brooklyn as 1-point home favorites, a 2-point win at Atlanta as 8-point dogs and an 8-point win at Indiana as 5.5-point dogs. The Raptors are still very much alive for the play-in in the Eastern Conference trailing the reeling Hawks and Bulls. They are playing with a fire under their belly to try and make it. The Raptors have a big rest advantage over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Raptors, who are fully healthy right now. Dallas will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd road game in 4 days. The Mavericks will have to try and get back up off the mat after losing on a half court buzzer-beater to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. Luke Doncis played 41 minutes and had 45 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds while Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes and scored 30 points, and it still wasn't enough. I question how much these two and the Mavericks have left in the tank tonight. Toronto is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off two consecutive road games. Dallas is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 non-conference games. Toronto has pulled the outright upset in each of its last two meetings with Dallas, including on the road earlier this season. Bet the Raptors Wednesday. |
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02-27-24 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 221.5 | 85-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks UNDER 221.5 Both the Hornets and Bucks are dead nuts UNDER teams right now. The Hornets have allowed an average of 98.5 points per game in their last six games, which is unheard of in today's NBA. Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Bucks interim head coach. The Bucks are 10-1-1 UNDER in their last 12 games overall. They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in six consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in five of them. Charlotte is 5-0 UNDER in its last five games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in seven consecutive games. The Hornets and Bucks played earlier this month and combined for just 204 points. It will be more of the same in the rematch with how these teams are playing currently. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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02-27-24 | Hornets +14.5 v. Bucks | Top | 85-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +14.5 The Charlotte Hornets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs. The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock. The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting. They have won all five of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs, Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs and Portland 93-80 as 3.5-point dogs. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks. They are coming off two consecutive huge road wins over the Timberwolves and 76ers. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hornets, who they just blew out at home in early February. But this is a different Hornets team now, and they will be the more motivated team for revenge. Getting 14.5 points here is too much. Charlotte is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 105 points or fewer last game. The Hornets are playing elite defense right now holding their last six opponents to an average of 98.5 points per game, which is unheard of in today's NBA. Bet the Hornets Tuesday. |
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02-27-24 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Knicks | 115-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. They are coming off two consecutive upset home losses to the Heat and Bulls. But they have played their best basketball on the road this season, and they will be happy to get to play at Madison Square Garden tonight. The Pelicans are 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games. They have a big rest advantage tonight after having yesterday off. Meanwhile, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a basket in the final seconds to beat the Pistons 113-111 as 11.5-point home favorites on Monday. The Knicks have been struggling lately due to all the injuries that have mounted up. The Knicks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are without three of their best players in Randle, Anunoby and Robinson. Josh Hart played 42 minutes, Jalen Brunson 40 and Dante ViVincenzo 32 last night. The Knicks won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. |
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02-27-24 | Pelicans v. Knicks UNDER 218.5 | 115-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Knicks UNDER 218.5 Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the New Orleans Pelicans visit the New York Knicks. The Pelicans rank 6th in defensive rating this season while the Knicks rank 9th. The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season, and will control the tempo playing at home. The Knicks and their opponents have combined for 118 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. They are struggling offensively right now scoring 113 points or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall. They are struggling because they are short-handed without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now. The Pelicans also have injury concerns of their own with both Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum questionable, plus Jose Alvarado out due to suspension. The UNDER is 8-4 in Pelicans last 12 games overall. The Pelicans beat the Knicks 96-87 in their first meeting this season that saw just 183 combined points. It should be more of the same in the rematch. New York is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points pre game in the 2nd half of the season. The Knicks are 8-1 UNDER in home games when revenging a road loss this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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02-27-24 | Jazz v. Hawks | Top | 97-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK It's addition by subtraction for the Atlanta Hawks. They have actually been better without Trae Young than with him this season. They proved it again last time out with a 109-92 home win over the Orlando Magic last time out. They are certainly much better defensively without Young, and Dejounte Murray plays better when he is running the offense rather than playing off the ball. The Utah Jazz are a mess right now going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home over the lowly San Antonio Spurs. They lost by 8 as 10-point favorites to the Hornets, by 3 to the Warriors who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, by 16 at home to the Lakers, by 22 at home to the Warriors and by 14 at Phoenix. They are all but eliminated from playoff contention because they would have to chase down the Warriors or Lakers for the final two play-in spots, which they know isn't happening. The Jazz are 9-20 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 10.0 points pre game. Atlanta is trying to fend off two teams for the final play-in spot in the East. Bet the Hawks Tuesday. |
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02-26-24 | Nets v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 111-86 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 Finding teams like the Memphis Grizzlies who are out of playoff contention but continue to show up and fight every night is one key to winning in the NBA late in the season. The Grizzlies are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games taking both New Orleans and the Clippers to the wire in two losses, while also upsetting both Houston and Milwaukee. Finding teams like the Brooklyn Nets who seem to care less about winning games and fading them is also one key to winning in the NBA late in the season. The Nets are 8-25 SU & 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall. Their last three games were very concerning. They lost by 50 at Boston, by 28 at Toronto and by 15 at Minnesota. They aren't even trying right now, and they should not be favored over the Grizzlies, who at least get after it defensively ranking 10th in the NBA in defensive rating. Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games off three or more consecutive home games. Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games after losing six or seven of its last eight games this season. The Nets are 2-14 ATS in road games vs. teams who shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams that shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game in the 2nd half of the season. Bet the Grizzlies Monday. |
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02-25-24 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 239 | 123-107 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Kings/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 239 The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team. The Kings are 7-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 238 or more combined points in eight of those nine games. The OVER is 3-1 in their last four meetings with the Clippers with 248, 255 and 351 combined points in the three OVERS. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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02-25-24 | Hornets +3.5 v. Blazers | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +3.5 The Charlotte Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs. The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock. The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting. They have won all four of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs and Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs. Now the Hornets take on a hapless Portland Trail Blazers that has no business being favored over them in their current state. The Blazers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games overall losing all seven games by 6 points or more, and six by 9 points or more. They are without Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe right now and struggling to score without these guys. They have scored 112 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being 122 against the Pistons in OT. Portland is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season. Charlotte is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games after allowing 105 points or less. The Hornets are only allowing 102.2 points per game in their last five games and are getting after it defensively. Bet the Hornets Sunday. |
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02-25-24 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 241 | Top | 109-128 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Jazz OVER 241 The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 10th in pace and 25th in defensive rating. The Jazz have allowed at least 129 points in four of their last five games overall. They face another dead nuts OVER team tonight in the San Antonio Spurs, who rank 4th in pace and 24th in defensive rating. The Jazz and Spurs met once earlier this season with the Jazz winning 130-118 for 248 combined points. They also combined for 245 points in their final meeting last season. This total of 241 is too short for this game tonight. Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Utah) - after getting beating by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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02-25-24 | Nuggets v. Warriors +1 | Top | 119-103 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors +1 The Golden State Warriors are motivated to make the playoffs. They are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They have gone 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming to the Clippers. The Clippers rallied from a double-digit deficit in the 4th quarter after Tyron Lue was ejected and they couldn't miss from 3 down the stretch. The Warriors also want some revenge on the defending champion Denver Nuggets. They are 0-3 SU against the Nuggets this season losing by 3, 3 and 6 points. They have been close, but they haven't been able to get over the hump. Now I fully expect them to get over the hump and avoid the season sweep. The Nuggets have two starters questionable to play in this one in Jamaal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. This isn't a very deep team as it is, so missing one or both would be big. But I like the Warriors to get the job done either way. Golden State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Plays against favorites (Denver) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Warriors Sunday. |
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02-25-24 | Cavs v. Wizards OVER 232.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Wizards OVER 232.5 The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating. They have allowed 147, 130 and 133 points in their last three games overall coming into this one. The Cleveland Cavaliers have played their first two games out of the break without MVP candidate Donovan Mitchell due to illness. But they get back Mitchell tonight and should hang a big number on the Wizards. They have scored 114 points or more in six of their previous seven games with Mitchell in the lineup. He has scored 27 or more points in six of his last seven games as well. Washington is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off four or more consecutive road games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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02-24-24 | Celtics v. Knicks +6.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on New York +6.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks and 'sell high' on the Boston Celtics. The Knicks went into the All-Star Break going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games. But their struggles were largely due to injuries to Brunson, DiVincenzo and Hartenstein. All three came back from the break healthy. I successfully backed the Knicks on the ML as underdogs in a 110-96 win at Philadelphia in their first game back from the break. And now I'm back on them as 6.5-point home dogs to the Celtics as they still look undervalued in the market place. Boston is the consensus best team in the NBA. But with that consensus comes expectations that are hard to live up to. You're paying a tax on the Celtics right now due to having the best record in the NBA and being on a 7-game winning streak. But Boston is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall, and if they manage to win this game, it will go down to the wire against the feisty Knicks. New York is 12-2 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season. Boston is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games off two consecutive covers as favorites. The Knicks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season. Bet the Knicks Saturday. |
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02-23-24 | Hornets +13 v. Warriors | 84-97 | Push | 0 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +13 One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night. One of those teams is the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs, by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs and by 8 over Utah as 10-point dogs. This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact and playing with a chip on their shoulder. Golden State is overvalued off a 128-110 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They wanted revenge on the Lakers after losing 145-144 (OT) at home to them in their previous meeting and they got it. But keep in mind it was without LeBron James. Plus, this is now a huge sandwich spot for them with defending champion Denver on deck at home on Sunday that they could be looking ahead to. I don't think we get a max effort from the Warriors, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 13-point spread. Bet the Hornets Friday. |
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02-23-24 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 241.5 | 106-147 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Thunder OVER 241.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall. They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 10th in pace and 4th in offensive rating. Now they face another dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Wizards and Thunder with 237 or more combined points in all four. That includes a 136-128 win by the Thunder in their first meeting this season for 264 combined points. It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight. The Thunder are 21-6 OVER in their last 27 games off a home win by 10 points or more. Washington is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night. One of those teams is the Memphis Grizzlies. They went into the All-Star Break covering three straight including outright upsets over Houston 121-113 as 3-point home dogs and Milwaukee 113-110 as 12-point home dogs the very next night on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Everyone is talking about the Los Angeles Clippers winning the NBA title right now. As a result, the Clippers are overvalued. They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-129 loss in Oklahoma City last night. Asking them to win by double-digits on the road to beat us here is asking too much. The Clippers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games off a road loss by 10 points or more. Los Angeles is 9-18 ATS after playing a road game this season. The Grizzlies are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when playing with double revenge. Bet the Grizzlies Friday. |
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02-23-24 | Cavs -3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 97-104 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They are coming off an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic last night, who have been the best covering team in the NBA and are grossly undervalued. But the Cavaliers also didn't have their best player in Donovan Mitchell due to illness in that loss. My best guess is Mitchell returns tonight, but I like the Cavaliers either way. I'll gladly fade the 76ers again like I did with the Knicks easily cashing on the Knicks ML +100 in a 110-96 victory over the 76ers in a game that wasn't even that close. The Philadelphia 76ers remain without Joel Embiid and the difference between being with or without him has been drastic for this team. The 76ers are 26-8 with Embiid in the lineup but just 6-15 without him. They should not be getting this much respect tonight without him. Cleveland is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Cavaliers are 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game. Bet the Cavaliers Friday. |
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02-22-24 | Wizards +15.5 v. Nuggets | 110-130 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +15.5 The Washington Wizards have been a great bet on the road this season. They have gone 19-8-1 ATS in their 28 road games as one of the best covering teams on the highway in the NBA this season. They are consistently catching too many points away from home, and that's the case again tonight as 15.5-point dogs at Denver. The Nuggets have been kind of bored just waiting for the playoffs to get here. The defending champs are having that dreaded title hangover. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 29 at Sacramento, by 17 at Milwaukee and by 4 at home to Sacramento in the rematch in a game you would have expected them to fire back in. The Nuggets are now just 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Washington is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games this season. The Wizards are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 road games off a non-conference game. Washington is 7-0 ATS in road games off five or more consecutive losses this season. Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. poor teams that are outscoring by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season. Bet the Wizards Thursday. |
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02-22-24 | Hornets +10 v. Jazz | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10 The Charlotte Hornets quietly went 5-1 ATS in their final six games going into the All-Star Break. That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs and by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs. This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact. The Utah Jazz went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games going into the break to all but play themselves out of playoff contention. Three of the four losses came by 14 points or more. I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they are so poor defensively that they cannot be laying double-digits to Charlotte tonight. They have allowed 129 or more points in four consecutive games. Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less. Utah is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Hornets Thursday. |
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02-22-24 | Clippers v. Thunder -114 | 107-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder ML -114 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 PPG, 6.5 APG) is the 2nd favorite to win the NBA MVP award currently. He holds a grudge with the Los Angeles Clippers for trading him away, so he has his best stuff every time he faces his former team. The Thunder are a legit title contender with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way and tremendous depth. I expect the Thunder to make easy work of the Clippers tonight. The Thunder are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Clippers. They won 134-115 in their lone home meeting this season. The Thunder are 21-6 SU & 18-9 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Oklahoma City is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games off a road win by 10 points or more. Bet the Thunder on the Money Line Thursday. |
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02-22-24 | Knicks +100 v. 76ers | Top | 110-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks ML +100 This is a great time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks coming out of the All-Star Break. They went into the break going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games. But the struggles were mostly due to injuries as they were playing without Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Isaiah Hartenstein and Bojan Bogdanovic at various times. All four are healthy and expected to play coming out of the break. The Philadelphia 76ers remain without Joel Embiid and the difference between being with or without him has been drastic for this team. The 76ers are 26-8 with Embiid in the lineup but just 6-14 without him. They should not be favored over the Knicks tonight without him. Plays on any team (New York) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-15 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Knicks on the Money Line Thursday. |
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02-15-24 | Wolves v. Blazers +9.5 | Top | 128-91 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. They will want revenge from a 121-109 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday. Now they get their shot at revenge at home again, and they go from 7.5-point dogs to 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjusment. The Timberwolves are looking ahead to the All-Star Break and want nothing to do with this game tonight. They won't be motivated at all to beat the Blazers again, which will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it is going to take to beat us tonight. We saw the Blazers in a similar spot less than a week ago. They lost by 12 in Denver as 12.5-point dogs and only lost by 9 to the Nuggets in the rematch as 14.5-point dogs. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after covering 5 or 6 of its last seven games. Bet the Blazers Thursday. |
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02-15-24 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 239.5 | 140-137 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz OVER 239.5 The Golden State Warriors are really clicking offensively right now. They have scored 119 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games overall. I expect them to top that number tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 239.5 bet. The Utah Jazz have scored at least 120 points in 15 of their last 19 games overall. I expect them to top that number as well. The Jazz have been atrocious defensively, allowing 138, 129 and 129 points in their last three games overall. They have simply quit playing defense heading into the All-Star Break. Both teams will be tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in altitude tonight. I think it will affect their defensive effort more than anything. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 234 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Clippers/Warriors OVER 234 The Golden State Warriors are really clicking offensively right now. They have scored 119 or more points in nine of their last 11 games overall. I expect them to top that number tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 234 bet. The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, but his loss is felt more defensively than anything as he is one of their best defenders. This isn't a very good defensive team without him with guys like James Harden, Paul George and Russell Westbrook playing more minutes. The Clippers will get their points as they are loaded offensively, scoring 118.0 points per game overall and 118.8 points per game on the road. The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in three of those four meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -2.5 | Top | 130-125 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5 The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road in OT at Atlanta. They have home wins over the Suns and 76ers, as well as road wins over the Grizzlies by 20, the Nets by 11, the 76ers by 24, the Pacers by 22 and the Jazz by 22. These games haven't even been close. The Los Angeles Clippers are limping into the All-Star Break having gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They were upset by the Pelicans at home by 11 as 6-point favorites, only beat the Pistons by 6 as 17-point home favorites and lost by 21 at home to the Timberwolves as 4.5-point favorites. Now the Clippers will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard (24.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.7 APG) tonight. This team goes as Leonard goes, and I don't expect them to put up much of a fight without him tonight. Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series. Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Warriors Wednesday. |
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02-14-24 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 219.5 | 113-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 219.5 The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts UNDER team without all of their top scorers right now due to injury. Memphis is 18-7 UNDER in its 25 home games which have seen an average of just 215.3 combined points per game. The Grizzlies have been held to 113 or fewer points in 14 consecutive games now. The Rockets are also missing two key players in Fred VanVleet (16.5 PPG, 8.2 APG) and Cam Whitmore (11.9 PPG). They have been held to 105 or fewer points in five of their last nine games overall. The Grizzlies rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating while the Rockets rank 23rd. Memphis is 10-2 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive losses this season. Houston is 13-5 UNDER off a home win this season. The Rockets are 30-14 UNDER in their last 44 games following a win overall. The Grizzlies are 8-1 UNDER in home games against teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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02-14-24 | Nets +13.5 v. Celtics | Top | 86-136 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +13.5 I like the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 118-110 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night. Now they come back as 13.5-point dogs on the road in the rematch tonight. The Celtics won't be very motivated to beat this team again, which will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated number. All five starters for the Celtics played at least 35 minutes last night. They aren't as deep as the Nets, who will have an advantage in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation with four of their five starters playing 34 minutes or fewer, and three playing 28 or fewer last night. Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win where it didn't cover the spread. The Celtics are 5-13 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season. Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall and grossly overvalued over the last couple weeks. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better. Bet the Nets Wednesday. |
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02-13-24 | Wolves v. Blazers +8.5 | Top | 121-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a letdown spot coming off two consecutive upset road wins over the Bucks and Clippers. They beat the Clippers 121-100 last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. I can't see them being all that motivated to beat the Blazers tonight after upsetting the Clippers, and they are definitely the more tired team. The Blazers have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days. They are expected to get Anfernee Simons (23.4 PPG, 5.3 APG) back from injury, and he means everything to their success. They also have Jerami Grant (21.9 PPG) and De'Andre Ayton (13.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG) healthy and could get back Scoot Henderson (12.8 PPG, 4.6 APG), who is questionable. The Blazers have been competitive in seven consecutive games not once losing by more than 12 points and with only one loss by double-digits. This despite battling through injuries to several of their key players. I love the spot for the Blazers with the rest advantage, and they are 42-12 SU in their last 54 home meetings with the Timberwolves to boot. Minnesota is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after covering five or six of their last seven games. Plays against favorites (Minnesota) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Timberwolves. Bet the Blazers Tuesday. |
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02-13-24 | Thunder v. Magic OVER 223 | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Magic OVER 223 The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 10th in pace and 5th in offensive rating. The OVER is 4-0-1 in Thunder last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in all five games. This 223-point total is very low for a game involving the Thunder right now. The Magic are more of an under team, but they have gone OVER in three consecutive games and are fully healthy right now. They have gone 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall as well. The books continue to set their totals too low. They won't mind getting up and down with the Thunder in this one. The first meeting between the Thunder and Magic this season the total was set at 232, so this total is 9 points less and there's value as a result. Both teams shot terribly in that first meeting which is why it stayed under. The Thunder shot 7-of-35 (20%) from 3-point range while the Magic shot 8-of-36 (22.2%). Both teams are due for some positive shooting regression in the rematch. Orlando is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games after winning four of its last five games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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02-12-24 | Warriors v. Jazz +105 | 129-107 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah Jazz ML +105 The Utah Jazz have been the best covering team at home in the NBA this season. They are 17-7 SU & 18-5-1 ATS at home and have knocked off many of the top contenders in the league. They should not be home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors tonight. I love the spot for the Jazz coming in on three days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go. I hate the spot for the Warriors coming off a 113-112 home win over the Suns where Steph Curry won it with a 3-pointers just before the buzzer. This is now a letdown spot for the Warriors, who will also be playing in their 7th different city in 11 days and in altitude to boot. This is a tired team right now ripe for the upset. Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after losing four or five of its last six games this season. Golden State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games with a line of +3 to -3. The home team is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Jazz Monday. |
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02-12-24 | Wizards v. Mavs OVER 247 | 104-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Mavs OVER 247 The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when they have Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on the court at the same time. They are two of the best scorers in the NBA, but they are also two of the worst defenders. The Mavericks rank 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season while playing at the 8th-fastest tempo. They face another dead nuts OVER team here in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and 27th in defensive rating. But the Wizards are a pretty good offensive team with all of their young guards. They lost a 129-133 shootout in Boston in their last road game for 262 combined points. The Mavericks are coming off a 146-111 home win over the Thunder for 257 combined points. Washington is 32-12 OVER in its last 44 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game, including 13-2 OVER in their last 15 in the 2nd half of the season. Dallas is 16-6 OVER against teams with losing records this season. These teams have combined for 247 and 253 points in their last two meetings, and the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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02-12-24 | Nuggets v. Bucks +2 | Top | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks. They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their first six games with Doc Rivers. But it was largely due to a brutal schedule and some injuries. They played five straight road games and came home and lost to Minnesota. But the Bucks bounced back with a 120-84 home win over the Hornets on the 2nd of a back-to-back in Damian Lillard's return from injury. Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover, and now they want revenge from a 107-113 road loss at Denver on January 29th in Rivers' first game. The Bucks go from 4-point road dogs at Denver in that meeting to 2-point home dogs in the rematch. They should be at least 2-point home favorites when adjusting for home-court advantage and the spot. Denver is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season. Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Bucks Monday. |
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02-11-24 | Kings v. Thunder OVER 239 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
20* Kings/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 239 The Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder are both two dead nuts OVER teams. The Thunder rank 10th in pace while the Kings rank 11th. The Thunder rank 5th in offensive rating while the Kings rank 14th. The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games overall with 238 or more combined points in all five games and 241 or more in four of them. The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games overall with 241 or more combined points in three consecutive games. These teams combined for 251 points in their most recent meeting this season. Oklahoma City is 16-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game over the last two seasons. The Thunder are 10-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |