At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): I think Philadelphia is a good but not great team. I just cannot overcome their soft schedule and the fortunate turn of events they have enjoyed all season. The fact that their victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game represents the best win on their resume — despite San Francisco lacking a player who could throw a credible forward pass in the second half of that game. Or was their mid-October victory against Dallas with Cooper Rush under center for the injured Dak Prescott? Trevor Lawrence was probably the best quarterback they beat all year — but that was on the first Sunday in October before the second-year pro blossomed in the second half of the season. Or was the best QB they beat Aaron Rodgers and a Packers’ team that lost at home to Detroit the final Sunday night of the regular season to fail to make the playoffs? It was not Daniel Jones who they beat in the opening round of the playoffs. Philly beat the Giants three times and they beat Minnesota — and that exhausts the list of their six wins against teams who made the playoffs. I know the Eagles have a great offensive line — so do the Lions. I know there are some sweet run blocks against the Niners' good defensive line from the NFC Championship Game — but I am not going to get too excited about those plays considering the fading morale of that 49ers team. By the way, Philly only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against San Francisco. And despite their improved run defense after acquiring Ndamukong Sun and Linvale Joseph in mid-November, they still ranked 15th against the run in the second half of the season according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. I simply think the Eagles are a year away from learning how to beat great teams. I like Jalen Hurts — but I don’t love him yet to outduel elite quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. I don’t think head coach Nick Sirianni is ready to outwit Hall of Fame coaches on the other side of the field. In some ways, getting gifted the fortunate luck of Brock Purdy’s elbow injury early in that game may have given this team a false sense of confidence. True confidence would come from beating an outstanding team in the fourth quarter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they scored 69 points in their two playoff games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. This is Philly’s first road game since December 24th. The Eagles have played four straight Unders in a row while outgaining their two playoff opponents by at least +105 net yards. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 or more yards. Kansas City is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have the best quarterback in the league Patrick Mahomes. They have a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for this game — and his teams have covered the point spread in 20 of their 33 games in his career when he has two more weeks to prepare. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of three wide receivers that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. This is a battle-tested team that won their two playoff games by ten combined points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games at home by seven points or less. Mahomes has passed the test he faced this season if he could still maintain his productivity without Tyreek Hill. He has improved in taking what the defense gives him in the passing game. The Chiefs also have a running back in rookie Isaih Pacheco who can burn defenses that do not put enough players in the box. Since Week 10, Pacheco’s 728 rushing yards (before the AFC Championship Game) were the third most in the NFL. And the Kansas City defense is better than their season-long statistics suggest as this group continues to improve, as usual, under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Led by Chris Jones, the Chiefs sacked Joe Burrow five times. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored only 23 points against the Bengals — but the game script led that to be a lower-scoring game with Kansas City exposing a battered Cincinnati offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked five times in that game — and the Bengals ran for just 71 yards on 17 carries on that game. The Chiefs held Cincinnati to just 309 total yards — but they will face a much stiffer challenge against this Eagles team that probably has the best offensive line in the NFL. The Kansas City offense went into that game with Patrick Mahomes limited with his mobility given the right ankle injury he suffered the previous week against Jacksonville. To then compound matters, the Chiefs lost three wide receivers to in-game injuries that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Frankly, I completely believe that the AFC Championship Game goes Over the Total if even one of those receivers was still available to complement Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the passing game in the fourth quarter of that game. Not only does KC probably score another three to seven points, but the Bengals then are pressured to play catch-up — and the game script changes. The Chiefs should at least get to their 28.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average against the Eagles — and they scored 32.8 PPG while generating 430.2 Yards-Per-Game in their nine games away from home. Kansas City has played three straight Unders — but they have then played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of those three wideouts. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 6 straight Overs after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been effective in his two playoff games since returning from his shoulder injury — and now he gets another two weeks to rest and recuperate for this contest. He will have the green light to run the ball now with everything at stake in this final game of the season. Philadelphia scores 28.7 PPG — and in their eight games away from home, that mark rises to 29.4 PPG and 398.3 total YPG. The Eagles’ elite offensive line should be able to create running lanes to jettison the Philly ground game — they lead the NFL with their rushing attack using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs allow 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents to generate 5.1 YPC but teams too often abandon their running game because they are trailing Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. The Eagles will not abandon their running game so hastily — and they should continue to move the football. And while Philadelphia has not allowed more than 16 points in three straight games, that speaks more to getting to play the New York Giants twice in a row (once with a backup quarterback) before getting the Niners last week who lacked a quarterback who could reliably throw a forward pass in the second half of that game. Philadelphia has allowed 32 or more points four times this season — and the best quarterback they have played against this season was either Jared Goff in Week One, Trevor Lawrence in early October (before his big step in growth after Thanksgiving) or the smirking Aaron Rodgers in November. OK, I neglected to consider Dak Prescott in that NFC East rematch in December — and Dallas scored 40 points in that game. Choose your fighter … none are Mahomes. This is a new challenge. The Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.


FINAL TAKE: After two lower-scoring games in the last two Super Bowls, I am expecting this contest to see a combined score of at least 50 points. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (323) and the Kansas City Chiefs (324). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cashing Unders with the Bengals and their defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been like going to the ATM — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset victory by 10 or more points. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points, Cincinnati has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Joe Burrow should continue to find success against the Chiefs’ secondary with three rookies getting significant time. Kansas City has surrounded the most passing touchdowns this season — and they are 7th in the NFL with 79 missed tackles from their defensive backs. Additionally, their defensive backs have been called for 14 defensive pass interference penalties which are the most in the league. The oddsmakers expect a close game — and Burrow has been very effective in the second half against the Chiefs in his career. Burrow has led Cincy to 47 points in the second half and overtime in his three games against KC — and the Bengals have averaged 29.3 Points-Per-Game in those three contests. The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or more games in a row. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin last week, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after sporting a +2 or higher net turnover margin in their last contest. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. And in their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Kansas City has played 8 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These teams have played three times in the last 13 months — two of the games had 51 combined points scored and their Week 17 meeting last season saw 65 combined points scored. Cincinnati won all three of those games with the most recent contest being on December 4th in a 27-24 victory (the same score as the Bengals' upset win in the AFC Championship Game last year) — and the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (323) and the Kansas City Chiefs (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. So has Andy Reid — and my investment in the Chiefs tonight is ultimately my endorsement of him. The loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last year was the defining moment of Kansas City’s season — and the entire offseason was his preparation for this moment (much more than their earlier meeting on December 4th). The Chiefs have now lost three games in a row to Cincinnati — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games under Reid when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Reid’s teams in his career have also covered the point spread in 36 of their 56 opportunities for revenge. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Additionally, I think the Mahomes injury puts the onus on his teammates to step up and play championship-level football to pick him up. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has yet to register a sack in his career in the playoffs — and while some of that is due to double teams (which frees up his partner on the line, Frank Clark), he needs to have a big game now. All this “Burrowhead Stadium” talk this week should have the Chiefs very chippy. We should not underestimate the home-field advantage Kansas City will enjoy tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. While Cincinnati has won the last three meetings between these teams in the last 13 months, only one of those games was played in KC. I love Joe Burrow — I totally get it — and I take a back seat to no one in my appreciation for this Bengals defense under Anarumo. However, I do wonder if this team is primed for a letdown after their emotional upset victory in Buffalo last week after feeling disrespected by the NFL for being snubbed from having that game played on a neutral field. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. Furthermore, the Bengals caught a break last week with the snowy conditions that slowed down the Bills' pass rush. Cincinnati still has three starting offensive linemen out today — that narrative has seemed to completely disappeared (and I get that losing Jonah Williams may be addition by subtraction). While the Mahomes injury is significant, the state of Burrow’s offensive line remains a bit factor as well. Finally, it gnaws at me that the Bengals have been outgained by -20.5 net Yards-Per-Game in their ten games on the road. And despite winning their last three games, they have been outgained by -57.3 net YPG in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has won three in a row against the Chiefs since Week 17 of last season — but all three games were decided by a field goal with all three contests being nip-and-tuck. Can the Bengals win yet a fourth coin flip in a row? Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. I go back to Andy Reid: beating Cincinnati was the central question he had to answer in the offseason. I think he gets it done. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I think this Eagles team is loaded with talent — but I suspect that quarterback Jalen Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni are a year away from reaching the promised land. The 49ers probably have the best overall roster in the league — with a core group of players that played in the 2021 Super Bowl and then lost in the NFC Championship Game last season. Kyle Shanahan has been in this position many times before as a head coach and as an offensive coordinator — and I do think that gives him an edge. The big caveat for this Niners team is Brock Purdy at quarterback. As someone who handicapped every single one of his starts in college at Iowa State, I have been a Purdy skeptic. Not that I am particularly down on his talent (relative to where he was drafted), but I am just very familiar with how the wheels can fall off for him when he does get into trouble. That said, he is in an ideal situation with the talent at the skill positions — and Shanahan is the prototype head coach to take advantage of his skill set. After re-watching the Cowboys game from last week, I see a quarterback that continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. On defense, while the Eagles have many really good players, do they have transcendent superstars like Nick Bosa or Arik Armstead on their defensive line? Do they have ballers at linebacker like Fred Warner and the criminally underrated Dre Greenlaw? Haason Reddick is playing the best football in his career for Philly this season — and there is not a real weakness with their group. But the Niners have superstars — and this is a superstar moment. There is a reason why San Francisco has won 12 games in a row despite suffering their second major injury at quarterback during that stretch of games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing their last opponent to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Philadelphia has proven they are in a higher weight class than the Giants this month — but they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. After not beating a playoff team last season, they took full advantage of their soft schedule this year to seize the top seed in the NFC. But I simply cannot get over the fact that their best resume victory (to put this in March Madness college basketball terms) is either against a Dallas team using Cooper Rush at quarterback or against a Minnesota team that was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Their non-conference victory against Jacksonville in October was before Trevor Lawrence took his next step in his development. I don’t feel I am discounting Jalen Hurts who I followed extra closely this year as my fantasy quarterback for Destination Humiliation. I just don’t know if he can pass his way to victory against an elite opponent — and I remain unsure how healthy he is with his shoulder injury that usually takes no longer to fully heal.

FINAL TAKE: It will be all hands on deck for both teams in this one — and that probably means players like Deebo Samuel getting more touches on kick-off and punt returns. I expect the 49ers supporting cast to make the plays to help their rookie quarterback manage this game to victory. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against NFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games in January — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in the playoffs. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expected a higher-scoring game between the Cowboys and 49ers — but the game script progressed in a way that allowed head coach Kyle Shanahan to lean on his running game and not ask rookie quarterback Brock Purdy to do too much. The Niners ran the ball in 21 of their 31 plays in the second half. Dak Prescott’s two interceptions that ended likely ended Cowboys’ scoring drives played a big role in keeping that score low and not putting pressure on San Francisco to respond with a score of their own. After tying the score at 6-6 late in the second quarter, the 49ers never trailed the rest of the game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. And while the Niners have won the turnover battle in 11 straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after generating a +1 or better turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Brock Purdy continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. While the Niners were able to frustrate a Dallas offense with the inconsistent Prescott playing poorly, they also were able to focus their defensive energies on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb since the Cowboys lack a credible second receiving threat. The Eagles have two legitimate number-one options in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The 49ers are vulnerable against quality vertical passing attacks. They allowed 15 pass plays of more than 20 bar yards this season, tied for the 3rd most in the NFL. Cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward have both been burned by deep balls this season — Ward, in particular, struggled against Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf who has a similar physical profile to Philly’s Brown. The Eagles also deploy plenty of play-action passes — and the 49ers' defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 96 of 135 passes (71.1%) from play-action for 1077 yards, 7.98 yards-per-attempt, nine touchdowns, and a Passer Rating of 101.4. In the final week of the regular season, Las Vegas’ Jarrett Stidham torched the Niners secondary by completing 23 of 34 passes for 365 yards, three touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 108.1. The 49ers allowed eight of their 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards in the air to come from play-action — and four of Stidham’s eight explosive completions against them came from play-action. The Eagles will likely lift much from the Raiders’ offensive game plan earlier this month. Jalen Hurts showed few ill effects from his separated shoulder injury from last month against the Giants — he completed 16 of 24 passes for 154 with two touchdown passes while rushing for 34 yards and another touchdown. After taking a 28-0 halftime lead, there was no reason for Philly to push Hurts in the second half as they coasted to victory. The Eagles have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They held the Giants to just 227 total yards — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs at home after winning two games in a row. And while they held the Giants to only 23 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on grass. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (317) and the San Francisco 49ers (318). THE SITUATION: Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday. San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they gained 505 yards against the Seahawks last week, they have then played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 350 or more yards in their last game. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now have four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. Dallas has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 4 straight Overs after a win by 14 or more points. Dak Prescott should enter this game full of confidence after completing 25 of 33 passes for 305 yards with four touchdowns. Dallas did give up 386 yards to the Buccaneers on Monday — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when playing at home at Levi’s Stadium. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (317) and the San Francisco 49ers (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys play this game under terrible circumstances. First, they have 2 1/2 fewer days to recover and prepare for this contest when compared to the 49ers who played the early game last Saturday. When facing a physical 49ers team on both sides of the ball, this is a significant problem. Second, this will be Dallas’ fourth straight game on the road — and all that travel tends to finally take its toll. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a short week after appearing on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have been resilient off losses — but they remain inconsistent. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Dak Prescott embodies this inconsistency. While he comes off a fantastic effort on Monday, he still has thrown 15 interceptions this season with 3.8 % of his pass attempts getting picked off. Dallas has also been a much better team at home where they have an 8-1 record this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 5-4 away from home while scoring -2.4 fewer PPG and only owning a +2 net turnover margin. Dallas has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Cowboys' splits have been even more pronounced when they are playing on grass where they are just 2-4 with an average losing margin of -1.2 PPG and a -16.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark. On the other hand, San Francisco is 11-3 when playing on grass (including on their home field at Levi’s Stadium) with a +12.6 net PPG clip and a +72.8 net YPG mark. They hold their opponents to just 296.6 YPG when playing on grass which results in just 15.1 PPG. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when favored. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Bengals gave up only 234 yards against the Ravens last week, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Cincinnati defense gave up 364 yards to Baltimore in that game — but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and now Jonah Williams out with injuries — but Joe Burrow has become quite used to playing behind a suspect offensive line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year has been overstated on closer analysis. The improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. Burrow had the Bengals in a position to win the Super Bowl last season behind a bad offensive line — and he should keep his team competitive in Buffalo this afternoon. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting 7 points or less. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 16 of their 20 games on the road an underdog with Burrow as their starting quarterback. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after a win against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they held the Dolphins to only 42 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. I am concerned that this Bills team is wrapped up too tight in their pursuit to win the Super Bowl. They are making too many mistakes at this point of the season — and it starts with Josh Allen who has thrown five interceptions and lost a fumble in the last three weeks. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 1-3-1 ATS. In their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals only gained 234 total yards last week against the Ravens — their 98-yard fumble recovery returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter made the winning difference in that game. Cincinnati lost left tackle Jonah Williams to a knee injury in that game — with La’el Collins and Alex Cappa also dealing with injuries, the Bengals are down three starters on their offensive line which is slowing down this offense. The Bengals only gained 257 total yards the previous week against Baltimore — and they managed only 237 total yards four games ago in their 34-23 win at Tampa Bay. Four of Cincinnati’s last five games have not seen more than 43 combined points scored. While Joe Burrow gets most of the headlines, the Bengals sport an underrated defense that has not allowed more than 18 points in three straight games and five of their last seven contests. The Under is 11-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The injuries on the offensive line are impacting the Bengals' rushing attack. After rushing for only 55 yards against the Ravens last week, they have not gained more than 73 rushing yards in four straight games. The Under is 17-6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 24 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in three or more games in a row. The Bengals go on the road where the Under is 25-10-3 in their last 38 games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bengals have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have played two straight games where 58 or more combined points were scored, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. The Bills outgained the Dolphins last week by 192 net yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by 100 or more yards. And while they held Miami to just 42 rushing yards, Buffalo has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. The Bills only allow 18.6 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 260.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents — and the Under is 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games against fellow AFC rivals. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (304) minus the points versus the New York Giants (303). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th. New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Giants pulled off the upset last week against an overrated Vikings team that outscored and outgained in yardage — but this is a very difficult spot for them now with them playing on the road for a third straight week after being in Philadelphia just two weeks ago. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing a game where at least 50 or more combined points were scored. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games to close out the regular season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles beat five of the six playoff teams they played in the regular season — and New York lost to six of the nine playoff teams they faced including their win last week in Minnesota.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia did not play their best football to end the regular season — but they had the luxury of taking their foot off the accelerator by being in control to take the top seed in the NFC with just one victory in their final three games. Injuries played a role — but they are getting healthy again. This is a team looking to take the next step after losing in the playoffs last season — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the postseason. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week. Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York’s offense was clicking last week behind a confident Daniel Jones who completed 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones also ran for 78 additional yards operating head coach Brian Daboll’s offense that helped Josh Allen become a star. Jones will be fully unleashed in this game with the Giants playing with house money. New York should be able to move the ball with Jones offering an additional threat with his legs. The Eagles allowed 499 rushing yards from quarterbacks with 307 of those yards coming from scrambles — and both of those marks are the second-most in the NFL. Running back Saquon Barkley should be relatively rested for this contest as well after only running the ball nine times last week (for 53 yards with two touchdowns). New York has averaged 163 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and the Eagles are vulnerable against the run despite their late-season free-agent pickups of defensive tackles Ndamukong Sun and Lineal Joseph. Their last five opponents have all rushed for at least 115 yards — and those five teams averaged 130.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game against them. This Daboll offense leads the NFL in Red Zone efficiency according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they present a balanced attack inside the opponent’s 20-yard line by ranking 1st with the pass and 3rd with the run according to the DVOA numbers. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last game. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point-spread win. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia hosts this game where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC East — and the Over is 5-2-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the Raiders to just 279 total yards two weeks ago — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win against an AFC West rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least two games in a row. They return home to Arrowhead Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 19.4 Points-Per-Game. Surprisingly, Kansas City averages -18.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game at home than their 414.1 total YPG mark — and their 25.1 PPG scoring mark at home is -4.1 YPG below their season average. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 27-7 score, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. They also endured a -5 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Those turnovers put the Chargers in a position to score in the first half — but the improving Jaguars' defense only gave up a field goal in the second half while holding them to just 320 total yards of offense. Jacksonville has held their last six opponents to just 18.0 PPG — and their last three opponents have averaged only 303.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Jags have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and the Chiefs have played 41 of their last 62 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total including Kansas City’s 27-17 victory on November 13th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against each other when playing at Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th. Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Never in doubt(!) for those of us that had the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville trailed by a 27-0 score in the second quarter before scoring a crucial late touchdown to go into halftime trailing by 20 points. They then got plenty of help from the Chargers coaching staff that did not take advantage of burning time off the clock by running the football — allowing the Jags to methodically rally to take the lead and win this game. Great win for head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence — but I am worried about the emotional letdown for this team after pulling off this near-miracle comeback. I am also worried about a few other aspects for Jacksonville in this step-up in competition. For starters, only two of the six teams they have played during their current winning streak made the playoffs — the Chargers and Dallas. They benefitted from playing against backup quarterbacks in their victories against the New York Jets and two wins against Tennessee. But remember that they needed a late defensive touchdown to beat Joshua Dobbs and the Titans to clinch their spot in the playoffs two weeks ago despite playing at home in that game. They only scored seven first-half points in that game as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Lawrence’s propensity to make mistakes and commit turnovers remains a significant issue as well despite his overcoming those four first-half interceptions last week. He has accounted for 21 turnovers this year from 12 interceptions and another nine fumbles. The Jaguars upset the Chargers despite a -5 net turnover margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while Lawrence passed for 288 yards last week, Jacksonville is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 250 or more yards in the air in their last game. Now Lawrence goes on the road where he has led the Jags to victory in just four of his 17 career road starts. The Jaguars were 4-6 on the road this season — and they were outscored by -24.9 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games as an underdog this season. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher including four of their last five games on the road. Now here comes the Chiefs with head coach Andy Reid’s teams covering the point spread in 20 of his 33 games when coaching with two more weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. Patrick Mahomes faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in the league in pass defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home at Arrowhead Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City beat Jacksonville at home earlier this season by a 27-17 score on November 13th — but after racing out to a 20-0 lead before letting up and letting the Jags back in that game, they are not likely to take this team lightly. The Jaguars are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Kansas City. The Chiefs reach their fifth straight AFC Championship Game with the win — their decisive edge in playoff experience should lead them to a double-digit win. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Round Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. They only gained 222 yards last week against the Falcons — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. The Bucs also get starting cornerback Carlton Davis back for this game to bolster the depth of the secondary. As Brady commented early last week, this Tampa Bay team is probably the healthiest they have been all season. Dallas hopes they can flip the switch in the postseason after their flat effort last week against the Commanders. But this is a tough situational spot for them having to play away from home for a third straight week. The Cowboys are at their best when they are at home where they were 8-1 this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 4-4 away from home while scoring -6.0 fewer PPG and only owning a +1 net turnover margin. Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys are a team that seems to be preparing themselves for more postseason disappointment. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. Whatever one thinks about this Buccaneers team, the 2021 Super Bowl champs consider themselves winners — and that gives them an edge against this Cowboys team. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. Perhaps Jensen will help with the ground game for Tampa Bay's offense that has only averaged 77 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — but considering that their running backs are last in the league averaging 1.2 yards-after-contact, the problem is not with opening up holes at the line of scrimmage. If the Buccaneers lose tonight, they will go down with the ball in Brady’s hands. He is averaging 44 pass attempts per game — and we should not be surprised if he throws the ball at least 50 times tonight. A pass-heavy play script is a good recipe for the Over — especially when the number is below 50. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Buccaneers have allowed their last three opponents to average 369.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is +44.7 net YPG above their season average. That regressing unit presents a welcome opportunity for a Cowboys team that comes off an embarrassing loss where they only put up 182 total yards despite Dak Prescott playing for most of that game. Frankly, it was one of the worst efforts in his career as he completed just 14 of 37 passes for only 128 yards against the Eagles last week. Dallas has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Prescott missed time earlier in the season due to injury so tonight will be just the third time he has been under center following a game where he was their starting quarterback in a losing effort. The Cowboys scored 40 points in both of those previous contests — and Prescott has completed a combined 49 passes from 61 attempts for an 80.3% completion percentage for 623 passing yards, five touchdown passes, and only one interception. He has added 57 rushing yards in those two games as well. Furthermore, Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Prescott leads an offense that leads the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate — they have reached the end zone in 40 of their 54 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Cowboys have played 7 of their 8 games this season Over the Total when the Total was set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over their Total against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening week game between these two teams in which Tampa Bay won by a 19-3 score in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s teams have played 10 of their 12 games on the road Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Head coach Todd Bowles' teams have played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog getting up to three points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is going to be a tough out for the Bengals being a divisional rival who knows them very well. The Ravens are outstanding in two of the three phases of the game. Their special teams rank 3rd in the NFL using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on special teams and his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. But the Harbaugh formula success works — his teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Additionally, Baltimore is 33-13-5 ATS in their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road in the postseason. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning a game at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round — and the Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the AFC Wildcard Round. The Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams — and I expect those trends to continue. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in six straight games after their 11-point loss in Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 36-13-2 in their last 51 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. The Ravens have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Cincinnati has seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. They only managed 55 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow. On the other side of the ball, the Cincinnati defense remains underrated. They hold their guests to just 309.4 total YPG when playing at home which translates into 18.0 PPG. The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Under is also 21-7-2 in their last 29 games in January — and they have played 4 straight Unders. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 straight Unders in the playoffs. The Under is also 12-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 16 games against AFC opponents — and the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). THE SITUATION: New York (9-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-16 loss at Philadelphia as a 17-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 29-13 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings had played six straight games with at least 49 combined points scored before their victory against the Bears in the final week of the regular season. That streak started after Minnesota only scored a field goal in their flat 40-3 loss at home to Dallas. That game came after their 33-30 barn-burning victory at Buffalo the previous week. The Vikings cannot stop anyone — but the brilliance of wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the veteran competency of quarterback Kirk Cousins usually results in higher-scoring games for this team. Minnesota has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win. Cousins completed 17 of 20 passes for 225 yards before making way for Nick Mullens who added another 116 passing yards. The Vikings gained 482 total yards against Chicago last week — and they have played 6 of their alert 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings’ defense has surrendered 29.6 Points-Per-Game in their last five games even after the Bears only put up 13 points against them. Their defense ranks 28th in the league in weighted DVOA Defense using the metrics at Football Outsiders that privilege the most recent performances. Minnesota returns home where they are scoring 27.0 PPG — but they are allowing their guests to generate 393.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.2 PPG. The Vikings have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total including seven of their last eight home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 24 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, the Vikings have played 17 of these games Over the Total. New York had scored 20 points in six straight games before only scoring 16 points last week against the Eagles in a game where head coach Brian Daboll rested many of his key starters including quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants' defense has allowed six of their last eight opponents to score at least 20 points with the two exceptions being the anemic offenses of Indianapolis and Washington. The Over is 4-1-1 in New York’s last 6 games after a point spread win — and the Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. New York is generating 374.3 YPG in their last three games while ranking 7th in weighted Offensive DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Giants also lead the NFL in Red Zone DVOA Offense — and they will be going against a Vikings’ defense that ranks 23rd in the league in Red Zone DVOA Defense so their drives should result in more touchdowns than field goals if those trends hold up. Minnesota allows their opponents to complete 66.1% of their passes — and New York has played 4 straight Overs in the second half of the season against teams who allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes. And while the Vikings score 24.9 PPG, the Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has led Minnesota to eight game-winning touchdowns this season — but Daniel Jones is responsible for five game-winning drives himself in his breakout season under Daboll’s direction. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (143) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers were flat in their effort last week against the Broncos which meant nothing with Cincinnati taking care of business against Baltimore at the same time last Sunday afternoon — they allowed the hapless Denver offense to generate 471 yards against them. But Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more total yards in their last game. The Chargers' defense has played better in the second half of the season — and getting Joey Bosa back to team up with Khalil Mack certainly raises the ceiling regarding how well this unit can play. Los Angeles was second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders from Weeks 13 through 17. They did allow Denver to rush for 205 yards last week — but they have then played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. The Chargers gained 352 yards in that contest — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. With a healthy Williams, the Chargers scored more than 24 PPG and averaged 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they dropped to scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend. Los Angeles stays on the road this week where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Jacksonville gained only 222 total yards last week against the Titans — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last contest. They only ran for 19 yards against the stout Tennessee run defense in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars return home where they are holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. Jacksonville has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (143) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night. Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville experienced a character-building victory last week by relying on their defense to pull out a “must-have” game against a tenacious Titans team. We had Tennessee last week so it was expected that Mike Vrabel’s team would impose their will on the Jaguars in a low-scoring contest behind a rested Derrick Henry — but Jacksonville forced a late strip-sack on the Titans’ Joshua Dobbs that Josh Allen scooped up and raced into the end zone for the winning score. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after defeating an AFC South rival in their last game. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars are developing a formidable home-field advantage at TIAA Bank Field where they have won five of their seven games this season while holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. They were neglected an eighth home game this season with their annual trip to London — but they come into this game on a four-game home winning streak which includes victories against playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Lawrence does appear to have taken the next step in his development into one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. In his first eight starts this season, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 1840 yards and a 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 84.0. In his last nine starts, the former number one pick in the NFL draft completed 69.7% of his passes for 2273 yards and a 7.4 YPA with 15 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 104.6 that leads the league during that span. He should get plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne who averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry en route to his 1125 rushing yards this season. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in Run Defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They allow 5.6 YPC on the road which has resulted in home teams generating 156 rushing YPG. James Robinson torched this Chargers' defense for 120 yards in their first meeting on September 25th. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley loves his two-high safety shell looks — and that scheme worked when he was the defensive coordinator with the Rams two years ago. But without Aaron Donald patrolling the middle of the line of scrimmage, his Chargers’ defense has been mauled by opposing rushing attacks in his two seasons as their head coach. While the run defense improved in the second half of the season, Los Angeles has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 371 yards — throwing water on the narrative that getting Joey Bosa back elevated their ability to stop the run. The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Los Angeles has scored 59 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in two games in a row. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing to a divisional rival by seven points or less. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. It should be noted that the Chargers played a weak schedule down the stretch that included Tennessee (in the game where Ryan Tannehill got injured), Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and then the Broncos — all teams that did not make the playoffs. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were 8-5 with a healthy Williams while scoring more than 24 PPG and averaging 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they were 2-2 without him while scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like the vibes with this Chargers team with Staley leading the way — and that dynamic is only made worse after contradicting the logic of not playing starters in the preseason by asking his starters to play last week. Now Williams is injured, the team is traveling east, and Sean Payton is lurking to take over this group. Los Angeles only beat one of the six teams on their schedule that made the playoffs — and that was the 7th-seed Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville has a 3-3 record against playoff teams— and they are in a much better position with a Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson steering the ship. Los Angeles will have the extra motivation to avenge their 38-10 loss at home to the Jaguars on September 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss by 21 or more points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak to make the playoffs with their 19-16 win in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 38-13 victory against Arizona as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 255 yards in their victory last week. The Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. San Francisco has the best defensive unit in the NFL when using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — they rank 2nd in the league Run Defense and 5th against the Pass according to those DVOA analytics. They allow only 16.3 Points-Per-Game — and they limit their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 303.8 Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. In their two games against the Seahawks this season, they held Seattle to only 20 combined points with the lone touchdown they surrendered taking place in garbage time in the second game between these teams in Seattle. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy completed 15 of his 20 passes for 178 yards last week against the Cardinals — but the 49ers offense only gained just 311 yards against them. The Niners only generated 142 net passing yards after accounting for lost yards in sacks — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. San Francisco stays at home at Levi’s Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a home favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders in the playoffs. Seattle held the Rams to only 123 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Seahawks have only given up 22 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Seattle ran for 197 yards against the Rams en route to 322 total yards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Seahawks will clearly try to slow this game down by running Kenneth Walker early and burning time off the clock. Seattle has played four straight Unders — and not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders, but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 21-13 win in Seattle on December 15th. Purdy completed 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards in that game — but head coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks now have first-hand experience playing against the former Iowa State quarterback in addition to now three more games of tape against him. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Lastly, the weather forecast calls for wind and rain — and 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan may reel in his play-calling with the rookie under center to not take unnecessary chances given those conditions. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Horned Frogs have been a great story all season — and they continued their Cinderella run last week with an improbable victory against the Wolverines. But cooler heads need to prevail with how improbable this achievement was — as they needed help from the refs, along with arrogant play-calling from the Michigan coaching staff, and plenty of mistakes from the Wolverines’ players. TCU got outgained by -40 yards with their defense giving up 528 total yards. On the first drive of the game, Michigan should have taken the three points when it was 4th down on the Horned Frogs' 2-yard line. Instead, they went for it, which is fine enough, but rather than running behind their two-time reigning Joe Moore award-winning top offensive line, they called some double-reverse Philly special disaster that was flagged by their calling a timeout before the play — as if winning the game was already a lock and they wanted to load up the game tape for their opponent in the national championship. The defensive stop gave the underdogs momentum — and that was later bolstered when the Horned Frogs returned the first of two interceptions for touchdowns. Michigan failed to score touchdowns on three drives that got inside the TCU 3-yard line — they settled for only three points in those drives. The referees played a role in one of those red zone failures by a very sketchy overturn in a 50-yard touchdown pass (after these refs incorrectly spotted the previous play five yards farther back against the Wolverines than it should have been). The Wolverines then muffed the handoff to the linebacker-converted running back. From J.J. McCarthy’s two pick-sixes in this game and the two failures to score points at the TCU two-yard line, that represented a likely 27-point swing for the Horned Frogs (who missed a two-point conversion on the second interception they returned for a touchdown) — and Michigan still had the ball with a chance to win the game (before the refs swallowed their whistles after a textbook targeting violation which would have been called every time if not in the last minute of the game). The Wolverines exposed the TCU defense in the second half when they finally unleashed McCarthy to move the ball with his legs. Michigan scored 35 points in a 16 minute-span beginning with their field goal to end the 3rd quarter. But they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. As it is, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last game. And while McCarthy threw for 343 yards against them, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 280 or more yards in their last contest. This remains a team that has won six of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession with five second-half comebacks along the way. Away from home, TCU is only outgaining their opponents by +12.7 Yards-Per-Game while giving up 428.6 YPG. The Horned Frogs' defense is far from elite — they have given up 31 or more points six times and 28 or more points eight times (which is more than half their games). Immediately after the game, there was a narrative that their 3-3-5 defense held up against the stout Michigan offensive line. Really? The Wolverines ran the ball 40 times for 186 yards (4.65 YPC) even with their questionable play-calling. Only a Big 12 team can be praised for the play of their defense after giving up 45 points and 528 total yards. And now here comes Georgia looking to defend their national championship from last year after demonstrating their grit and tenacity to beat a Buckeyes team with nothing to lose after losing their big game against Michigan which seemed to remove them from the playoffs at the time. Georgia has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss including nine of these last eleven circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bulldogs outgained Ohio State by +66 net yards after generating 533 total yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. While their elite defense gets most of the credit, the Georgia offense has scored at least 37 points in three straight games and four of their last five after scoring 37 or more points in three straight games. And while the Bulldogs have allowed 348 passing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards. Georgia has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last week, are the Horned Frogs still a bit satisfied to just be in this position? I felt that way last week — and while they pulled off the upset, they needed lots of help. In head coach Sonny Dykes first year with the program after they were 5-7 last year, there is simply a huge talent disparity in this game. Can TCU pull off another improbable effort? This is the 5th time in the last three seasons where they are an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral field. Georgia is loaded with future NFL talent that has won 28 of their last 29 games in the last two seasons. They have a huge edge in big-game experience — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including these last seven circumstances. Look for the Bulldogs to seize a lead, impose their will, and overwhelm the Horned Frogs for the win and cover. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs scored 51 points against Michigan — but two of their touchdowns came from defensive interceptions returned for scores. TCU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Even when the Wolverines began their furious comeback in the second half, they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The Horned Frogs need to tighten things up on defense after allowing 528 yards to the Wolverines. TCU has played 5 straight Unders after allowing 40 or more points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 450 or more yards in their last contest. Georgia generated 533 yards against the Buckeyes last week — but they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. The Bulldogs have scored at least 37 points in three straight games — and they have played all three of those games Over the Total. But Georgia has played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Bulldogs may be without one of their key weapons on offense with 6’7 tight end Darnell Washington questionable with an ankle injury he suffered last week. Washington joins tight end  Brock Bowers to form the foundation of Georgia’s smash-mouth spread offensive scheme that leans on these tight ends and their running backs as opposed to wide receivers — so his absence will throw a monkey wrench in the Bulldogs' offensive identity.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has allowed their last two opponents to score 71 combined points after their first 12 opponents only score 136 combined points against them. I expect head coach Kirby Smart to slow this game down with the expectation that his defense remains the best unit in this game and the Bulldogs’ experience will lead them to a victory (and Smart’s priority is winning the game, not covering the point spread). Georgia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. 25* CFB Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (459) and the Green Bay Packers (460). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions generated 504 total yards of offense against the Bears — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Detroit has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And while the Lions held the Chicago offense to just 230 total yards, the Over is then 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 ads in their last game. The Over is also a decisive 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Detroit goes back on the road where they are allowing 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points, they have then played 10 of these games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. The Packers have also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold at Lambeau Field tonight with temperatures in the low-20s — but the winds are expected to be mild below 10 miles per hour with little chance of precipitation. Detroit upset the Packers in the first meeting between these teams by a 15-9 score as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Packers' offense is in a rhythm now having averaged 30.3 PPG in their last three games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against NFC North rivals. Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against divisional opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (459) and the Green Bay Packers (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has finally gotten their act together after hitting rock bottom with a 4-8 record going into December. Getting healthy has helped. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally embracing their running game has made a big difference as well. The Packers have run the ball at least 32 times in three of their last four games while generating at least 138 rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Jones in the backfield. But perhaps the biggest tactical change Green Bay has embraced has been on the other side of the ball. The Packers are blitzing less — going from a 42% blitz rate in their first 15 games to just a 10% blitz rate in their last three. With the extra available pass defenders, Green Bay is playing multiple coverage schemes including more Cover-6 or two high safety looks. After ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes, their opponent completion percentage has dropped to 52.6% in their last three games, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Packers have picked off seven passes in their last three games with just one dropped which is a significant improvement over ten interceptions in their first 13 games where they dropped six potential interceptions. In these last three games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Packers should build off their momentum now as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against an NFC North foe — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after beating a divisional rival by 21 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four games in a row. Forcing more turnovers has played a big role in their recent success. The Packers have enjoyed a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight and three of their last four games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after having a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after posting a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games. Back at home at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC rivals. Detroit may be due for a letdown since they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after beating an NFC North rival by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They gained 504 yards against the Bears while averaging 7.41 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP. And while they held Chicago to just 230 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The weather is expected to be in the low-20s tonight in Green Bay — which raises the issue of how Jared Goff and his small hands will perform under these conditions. At home under the dome, Goff has posted a 109.3 Passer Rating while completing 65.8% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and 247.2 passing YPG. But in his seven starts on the road, Goff has an 87.6 Passer Rating while completing 63.7% of his passes with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions with a 7.4 YPA and only 174.2 passing YPG. It’s an issue. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be looking to avenge a 15-9 upset loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — but it will be difficult for Goff to replicate those numbers in these cold conditions. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in Rushing DVOA which will not be impacted by the cold weather — and they will be running against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Opponent Rushing DVOA Allowed. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-9) has won two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-8) has won three in a row after their 16-13 upset win at Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns upset the Commanders despite only gaining 301 total yards of offense last week. Deshaun Watson has been underwhelming in his return from suspension — he only completed 9 of 18 passes against Washington for 169 yards (although he did throw three touchdown passes). Despite Watson’s fully guaranteed contract that he signed as a free agent from Houston, head coach Kevin Stefanski has his team running the football with his high-priced sex offender. The Browns had not scored more than 13 points in three straight games before reaching 24 points last week. But the Cleveland defense has been outstanding as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games. This should be a motivated group to play the role of spoiler to prevent Pittsburgh from making the playoffs — and sending Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin out with his first losing season in his career would be the icing on the cake. Furthermore, Jadeveon Clowney left the team this week after claiming he wanted to play for a team that “wanted” him — and that prompted Myles Garrett to paraphrase Tomlin in claiming that his team does not want “hostage” playing for them. Expect the defensive to play inspired football with the malcontent Clowney now out of the picture. As it is, Cleveland has played  4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They held the Commanders to just 124 passing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. And while they have played six straight Unders, Cleveland has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. In their last three games, they are generating just 277.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 15.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their last three opponents to 276.0 YPG and a mere 10.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Steelers have gained 351 yards against the Ravens with 198 of those yards coming on the ground. The Under is a decisive 47-22-2 in their last 71 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They held Baltimore to only 240 total yards — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Steelers have not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games. They have held their last three opponents to 216.7 YPG and 13.0 PPG. But Pittsburgh has scored less than 20 points in four of their last five contests. Back at home, the Steelers are gaining only 317.0 YPG and 18.7 PPG. They have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by three points or less. The Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh makes the playoffs with a win this afternoon combined with a New England loss and Miami loss — so the stakes are high for them. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 games against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) lost their fifth straight game after their 23-6 loss at Seattle as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (8-8) has lost five games in a row as well after their 23-21 loss at New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has played themselves out of the playoff race — and their offense has been anemic by scoring just nine combined points in their last two games. But I expect second-year head coach Robert Saleh to rally his troops in the role of the spoiler against a reeling Dolphins team that still clings to postseason hopes. The Jets have suffered three-straight upset losses — so turning the tables this week would give them some measure of satisfaction. Quarterback Mike White is out for this game with a rib injury — but I consider that a blessing in disguise since that allows for the veteran Joe Flacco to play under center this afternoon. Flacco may not be the quarterback of the future — but he is a savvy veteran with a Super Bowl championship on his resume. In limited time this season, he has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and just three interceptions.  White thew two interceptions last week in the loss to the Seahawks. Flacco will be using this game as an audition to serve as a backup next season — hopefully, for him, a playoff contender. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 9 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 6 points in their last game. Flacco will not have any druthers playing in a hostile environment — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. Furthermore, the decision to sign Mike Glennon as backup quarterback signals that Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be available — and that means rookie Skyler Thompson gets the start under center. The 6th round pick out of Kansas State is completing only 54% of his 74 passes this season. He has thrown only one touchdown pass while tossing three interceptions — and his low 5.2 yards-per-attempt mark is concerning given the weapons and speed the Dolphins have on offense. It looks like starting left tackle Teron Armstead will not play with the foot injury that has him doubtful. This Jets' defense remains quite good — they hold their home hosts to just 308.3 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 18.6 Points-Per-Game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Miami needs to win this game and then hope New England loses to Buffalo to make the playoffs — but there are rumors that the entire coaching staff will be fired if they do not make the playoffs. I think rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is a bit overrated because I don’t think the inventive play-calling he picked up from Kyle Shanahan necessarily qualifies him for the Hall of Fame quite yet. McDaniel has had some bumps this season — mostly with game management but also with the Tua Tagovailoa situation. Overall, I think he is doing fine and deserves another year — but the team’s owner dreams of Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh coaching his team. Needless to say, I don’t like the vibes, once again, within this organization. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Despite the six-game losing streak, don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have played three straight Unders under Vrabel — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Tennessee is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. They go back on the road where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Vrabel will keep Joshua Dobbs under center this week after he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards against the Cowboys last week. While he only ran the ball three times for 12 yards, look for the former Tennessee Volunteers quarterback to be used much more in designed runs in this contest. Jacksonville followed up their 19-3 victory on the road against the New York Jets with their four-touchdown victory against the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two straight games by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning their previous game by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than nine points in two straight games. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. This will be Lawrence’s biggest game in his NFL career. Jacksonville returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: While commissioner Roger Goodell talks about “competitive equity” to defend the owners’ decision yesterday to change the written rules regarding playoff procedures to potentially set up neutral field games in the AFC playoffs, the league simultaneously shafted the Jaguars in this contest by requiring them to play on a short week against a Titans team that had extra days off after playing on a Thursday. Frankly, this game should be the Sunday night game to offer Jacksonville a normal week of rest and preparation. Tennessee has a huge situational edge that Vrabel was able to magnify by resting his key starters. As it is, the Titans have won five of the last six meetings between these two teams. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Titans head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. They did give up 361 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more yards in their last game. The Titans go back on the road where they are scoring only 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 269.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The formula for success in this contest will be to keep running Henry who looks primed for at least 30 carries in this contest. But the Titans will have to rely on Joshua Dobbs at quarterback who had thrown only 17 career passes in the NFL before making his first career start last week against the Cowboys. Dobbs accounted for himself pretty well against the Dallas team — he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards. But the Jaguars will benefit from the game tape they now have on Dobbs for this contest. Jacksonville has only allowed six combined points in their last two games albeit against similarly less-than-ideal quarterbacking situations with Houston and the New York Jets. They held the Texans to just 277 total yards after limiting the Jets to only 227 yards the previous week. The Jags have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Houston only ran for 84 yards against them last week — and the Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Jacksonville ran for 169 yards against the Texans — making it the third straight game where they gained at least 147 yards on the ground. But the Jaguars have then played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. Jacksonville returns home where they are holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents including four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. 25* NFL ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) and the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers held the Raiders to just 201 total yards last week with Las Vegas only gaining 58 rushing yards on the ground. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to less than 90 rushing yards. The Steelers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. They go back on the road where the Under is a decisive 47-22-1 in their last 70 games away from home. Baltimore has held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have not scored more than 17 points in those four contests and are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-6-2 in the Ravens’ last 28 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. These two teams have played 4 straight Unders — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Baltimore. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing good football as of late — and it starts with their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG and outgaining them by +95.0 net YPG. Kenny Pickett returned at quarterback last week and completed 26 of 39 passes for 244 yards. He did throw a touchdown along with an interception — but that pick was his first one in five starts. He is completing 65.2% of his passes in his rookie season. The Steelers outgained the Raiders last week by +149 while holding them to just 201 total yards. Las Vegas only gained 58 rushing yards last week — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog getting up to three points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 26 games in January under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 16-7-3 ATS. Baltimore is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. But Baltimore has not scored more than 17 points in those four contests — they are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore stays at home where they are getting outgained in yardage despite their 5-2 record. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 27-24 win against the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite on December 24th. Green Bay (7-8) has won three straight games after their 26-20 upset win at Miami as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins had another good game against the Giants — he completed 34 of 48 passes for 299 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In his last four games, Cousins has thrown for 1357 yards for a 339 passing Yards-Per-Game average — and he has tossed ten touchdowns during that span. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Vikings generated 353 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But Minnesota also gave up 435 yards to the Giants in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teas with a losing record at home. Green Bay has found their offensive identity (finally) — they are scoring 26.5 PPG in their last six games. The key to the Packers' offensive success has been to lean into their dynamic running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In Green Bay’s last four games, those two running backs have 117 combined touches for 635 yards with six touchdowns. The Packers have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They go back home where they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. Green Bay is looking to avenge a 23-7 loss in Minnesota on September 11th — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings at Lambeau Field Over the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games away from home after a loss at home at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss against a Big 10 foe as a home favorite. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while the Bulldogs generated 529 yards against the Tigers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Georgia did show some vulnerability with their defense as LSU gained 549 yards against them. Facing the Buckeyes will be their toughest test this season. The Total is set high for Georgia with the Total in the low-60s. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range including three of their four games this season with the Total set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points on a neutral field. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. As it is, the Buckeyes have played 8 straight Unders after getting blown out by 21 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a Big Ten opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss when favored by six or more points. I am a bit worried about quarterback C.J. Stroud facing this stout Bulldogs’ defense. While Stroud leads the Ohio State attack when playing the role of a flat track bully, the Buckeyes’ offense stalled too often against their most challenging three opponents. Against Michigan, Ohio State only scored a field goal in the final 33 minutes. The Buckeyes had scored only 16 points with under ten minutes to go against Penn State before the floodgates opened in that game. Ohio State scored just 21 points and gained less than 400 total yards in their opening game against Notre Dame. Stroud seems reluctant to use his legs to gain yards — negating a skill that has become so valuable in these pass-heavy attacks. Stroud also keys-in too much on his first read while lacking advanced skills to move to a second (or third) option — and that is how the Wolverines burned him after sandbagging that defensive tactic. Now Stroud and a Buckeyes offense that will play without injured running back TreVeyon Henderson faces a stiffer test against Georgia — who has a healthy Jalen Carter at defensive tackle after he has missed time with injuries. While the Bulldogs’ defense was not as historic as last year’s group, they still held their opponents to just 12.8 PPG and 292.2 Yards-Per-Game. Georgia has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs generated 529 yards against LSU while averaging 7.56 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last contest. And while Georgia has scored 87 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders in bowl games — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 10-4-2 in Georgia’s last 16 games played on a neutral field — and the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Ohio State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275) in the College Football Semifinals in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 43-22 victory against Purdue as a 16-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3rd. TCU (13-0) lost their first game of the season in a 31-28 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was happy to reach the Semifinals last year after beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title — but now they are aiming to win the National Championship. They should build off their momentum — they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by 20 or more points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point-spread victory. And while the Wolverines gave up 456 total yards to the Boilermakers, they are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw for 20 touchdowns with just three interceptions this season. He has specialized in the vertical passing game by averaging 18.4 yards per completion in his last two games with seven of his 24 completions being of 20 or more yards and four of those completions being 40 or more yards. The Wolverines were probably holding back their passing attack for the Ohio State game — now with the benefit of bowl practice, expect another growth spurt in development in the former five-star recruit out of high school. The Wolverines’ red zone issues also improved late in the season — after a 64% touchdown rate in their red zone trips in the first two months of the season, they scored TDs in 75% of their red zone trips after November 1st. Michigan should remain on schedule after ranking 6th in Standard Down Success Rate — and they face a Horned Frogs defense that was 61st in Standard Down Success Rate Allowed including ranking 69th in that department specifically against the run. TCU allowed four of their last five opponents to either rush for 200 or more yards or average at least 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Wolverines may have the best offensive line in the nation — I suspect they will overwhelm the Horned Frogs' 3-3-5 defense that attempts to hide a small defensive front. TCU gave up 208 rushing yards to Kansas State — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last contest. That Wildcats team is similar — albeit with less talent — than what the Horned Frogs will face today in the Wolverines. TCU’s defense can be scored on — Kansas and Oklahoma State combined for 71 points against them. They rank 128th in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed on Standard Downs which is a scary proposition against this Wolverines team. The Horned Frogs only outgained their opponents by +20.2 YPG when playing away from home. They have covered the point spread only once in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against ranked opponents. Finally, 11 of the last 15 CFP Semifinal games have been decided by more than 14 points — and 8 of those winners were favorites laying more than seven points. 10* CFB TCU-Michigan ESPN Special with Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the TCU Horned Frogs (275) and the Michigan Wolverines (276) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: TCU (13-0) lost their first game of the season in a 31-28 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 3rd. Michigan (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 43-22 victory against Purdue as a 16-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs generated 469 yards against the Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship Game — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 208 rushing yards in that contest, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 200 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, TCU has played 16 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Michigan has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite — and the have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Wolverines held the Boilermakers to just 90 rushing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Michigan has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. And while quarterback J.J. McCarthy only passed for 161 yards against Purdue, the Wolverines have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and TCU has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in December. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with TCU-Michigan ESPN Special with Under the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the TCU Horned Frogs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (39-10) won for the third time in their last four games in their 39-10 victory against North Carolina as a 7-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 3rd. Tennessee (10-2) has won two of their last three games after their 56-0 win against Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson’s season was jumpstarted against the Tar Heels when head coach Dabo Swinney benched junior D.J. Uigalelei for freshman phenom Cade Klubnik in the first half of that game. Klubnik completed 20 of his 24 passes for 279 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to lead the Tigers to the 29-point win. Klubnik was considered by many to be the top quarterback in the 2022 class — and it was clear his presence on the field energized his teammates. Now this Clemson team looks to build momentum for a potential national championship run next year. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after a win by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games on the road after a win by 28 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point-spread win. And after Clemson passed for 317 yards overall against the Tar Heels, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Swinney has to adjust two significant opt-outs with defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson leaving the team to prepare for the NFL draft. But star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee is playing in this game and the players entering the transfer portal are limited. The Tigers remain loaded with talent on defense after holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game this season. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Tennessee’s losses at this point of the season are much more significant. Their top two wide receivers, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman have opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Their top linebacker Jeremy Banks has also opted out. Offensive coordinator Alex Golesh left the program to become the head coach at South Florida. But the biggest loss has been the season-ending injury to quarterback Hendon Hooker who has since left the team for the NFL draft. Senior Joe Milton will be their quarterback tonight after he completed only 11 of 21 passes for just 147 yards against the Commodores. Milton does not operate the Volunteers' offense like Hooker was able to do. He originally played at Michigan where he was unable to hold on to the starting quarterback job in 2020 — the Wolverines’ 2-4 season. After losing the starting job, he transferred to Tennessee where he was the presumed starter in head coach Josh Heupel’s first season. But he faltered and was quickly usurped by Hooker who took the quarterback gig and ran with it the last two seasons. Hilton has a strong arm — but his accuracy remains a problem and he is not as mobile as Hooker. The Volunteers relied on their running game against the Volunteers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by three or more touchdowns. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Volunteers’ defense is a weak link — especially in the passing game where they ranked 94th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and gave up 450 or more passing yards in three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 bowl games under Swinney. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (264) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (263) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 38-27 loss at USC as a 4-point underdog on November 26th. South Carolina (8-4) has won two straight games and three of their last four after a 31-30 upset win at Clemson as a 14-point underdog on November 26th. This game is being played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks have pulled off two straight upset victories as they upset Tennessee as a 22.5-point favorite before beating Clemson the next week. But South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after upsetting two straight opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset in their last contest. Additionally, the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Second-year head coach Shane Beamer will be missing many of the key players who made these last two upsets possible. The top three defensive backs have opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft as has their stud defensive tackle Zach Pickens and a starting offensive lineman. Beamer also lost his fourth starting defensive back along with their top two running backs and a good tight end to the transfer portal. Furthermore, one of their leading wide receivers, Josh Vann, remains out with an injury. As it is, this was a group this season that got outgained in yardage by -13.3 net Yards-Per-Game. This team won both of the games that were decided by one-scoring possession. In their five games away from home, South Carolina got outscored by -4.8 PPG — and they got outgained in yardage by -30.2 net YPG. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Fighting Irish did not force a turnover against the Trojans — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. And in their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games, they have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Quarterback Drew Pyne completed 23 of 26 passes for 318 yards with three touchdown passes against USC — and the Irish have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they passed for 280 or more yards. Pyne has entered the transfer portal given the return of Tyler Buchner after missing most of the season with a shoulder injury. Buchner looks good to go after taking part in all 14 of the practices in preparation for this game. He is considered significantly better than Pyne. Buchner put up meager numbers in his two starts of the season (including a tough assignment against Ohio State) — but this is a much better Notre Dame offense now with significant improvement coming from their offensive line. The Fighting Irish have a good ground game with a three-headed monster of Chris Tyree, Logan Diggs, and Auric Estime. The Irish averaged 183 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Gamecocks were vulnerable against good running teams even when their defense was at full strength — they surrendered 190 rushing YPG and 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Notre Dame has their own opt-out and transfer portal issues. Most significantly, their All-American tight end Michael Mayer and likely NFL first-round draft pick Isaiah Foskey have opted out. Three other Irish players then Pyne entered the transfer portal — but they combined for just 81 snaps this season.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for the Fighting Irish who want to continue the momentum under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by seven points or less when playing on a neutral field. 20* CFB South Carolina-Notre Dame ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (264) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (257) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (258) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Washington (10-2) has won six straight games after their 51-33 win at Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 26th. Texas (8-4) has won three of their last four games after their 38-27 win against Baylor as a 10-point favorite on November 25th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington to continue to ride their momentum established under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three straight games. The Huskies took a 28-27 halftime lead in that contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Additionally, Washington gained a whopping 733 yards against the Cougars' defense while averaging 10.65 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while they outgained Washington State by +270 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more yards. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games after a game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Junior quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. should be motivated in this contest after declaring that he will return to Washington for his senior season — this will be the former Indiana transfer’s first bowl game in his career. He completed 25 of 43 passes for 485 yards with three touchdowns against the Cougars — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for 375 or more yards in their last game. Penix leads an offense that leads the nation in Pass Success Rate. They average 377 passing YPG — and the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against opponents who average 275 or more passing YPG. Washington enters this bowl game with a full roster — but Texas is down some key players. The Longhorns’ top-two running backs, Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson have opted out for the NFL. Several depth players on both sides of the ball are in the transfer portal. But the biggest loss might be linebacker Demarion Overshown who is also opting out for the NFL draft. He led the Texas defense in tackles and quarterback pressure rate. The Huskies lead the nation in Havoc Rate Allowed — and they gave up only seven sacks this season. That leaves exposed a vulnerable Texas defense that ranked 85th in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after beating two straight Big 12 opponents in a row. And while they have two straight double-digit victories, head coach Steve Sarkisian’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after two or more wins by 10 or more points in a row. Freshman Quinn Ewers struggled down the stretch of the season with his average depth of target dropping to just 5.4 yards per attempt — far below the 11-yard target depth for his passes on the season. He also sees his adjusted completion percentage drop by 20% when facing pressure — and now he faces a Washington defense that averaged 3.0 sacks per game and ranked 21st by Pro Football Focus in their Pass Rush grading.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Washington-Texas ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (257) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-8) has lost five games in a row after their 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 40-34 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: I had been planning a 25* play on the Titans earlier in the week given the initial circumstances. But given all the players that Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel is resting — and his decision earlier today (that I suspected might be happening) that he is resting rookie quarterback Malik Willis for Joshua Dobbs (picked up off the Detroit Lions practice squad last week) — then I simply cannot invest 25* money into this side play. Now Dallas is going to rest players eventually as well — so I am investing 10* money into the Titans as a near 14-point dog out of mostly principle. The Cowboys know that they have this game in hand against the Tennessee backups — and Dallas has been sluggish as a double-digit favorite. They only beat the New York Giants by a 28-20 score as a 10-point favorite in November. They beat Houston by a 23-17 score as a 17-point favorite on December 11th. Even in their 54-19 victory at home against Indianapolis to begin the month was a close game with them taking a 21-19 lead into the fourth quarter before turnovers turned the momentum of that game. Dallas is prone to letdowns as well — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 30 games on the road in the last two weeks of the season, they have failed to cover the point spread 21 times. What can I say that is positive about Tennessee, right now? Well … it takes a lot to not cover a point spread in the 13-point range. Dobbs is a journeyman who played his college ball at Tennessee — but he has mobility and will have the green light to generate yards with his legs (and he is very motivated since this is his audition to the entire league tonight). Rookie running back Hassan Haskins is good after leading Michigan to the College Football Playoff Semifinals last year. The Cowboys can be run on — they have allowed at least 106 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Even worse, three of their last eight opponents have gained 192 rushing yards against them. Even with the Titans' injuries on their offensive line last week against the Texans, they still got 184 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. And while Tennessee has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have clinched the top wildcard spot in the NFC playoff race but they are two games behind Philadelphia in the NFC East race — so they probably cannot improve their playoff positioning. In other words, Dallas is going to rest their players once this game is in hand. At that point, I just the value in all these points with the home underdog is too much to pass up. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a Thursday. 10* NFL Dallas-Tennessee Amazon Prime Special with the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 40-34 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee (7-8) has lost five games in a row after their 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The tenor of this game has changed significantly from Monday morning to late Thursday afternoon. It is better to get the play right than to get the play out early. At this point, with neither team having anything at stake regarding playoff implications, I expect this to be a fast-played game with plenty of running plays to burn time off the clock with the hope to get it over with as soon as possible. The worst-case scenario for both teams is an injury. Tennessee makes the playoffs with a victory next week against Jacksonville — this is why head coach Mike Vrabel is resting key starters including running back Derrick Henry and, as he announced this afternoon, rookie quarterback Malik Willis. Joshua Dobbs, who they picked up off the Detroit Lions practice squad just eight days ago, gets the start. While Dobbs does not know the Titans offense, he still remembers how to hand off the ball — to rookie running back Hassan Haskins tonight behind a beat-up offensive line ravaged with injuries. Tennessee has only scored 14 points in each of their last two games relying on their starters with both those games finishing Under the Total. The Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Tennessee is playing solid defense still after holding their last two opponents to just 36 combined points (including the LA Chargers). The Texans only ran for 70 yards en route to their 285 total yards of offense — and the Titans have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, Houston has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas will not play running back Tony Pollard tonight — and I don’t expect many of the first-string offense to play into the second half in this one since they have clinched the top NFC wildcard slot but probably cannot catch Philadelphia to win the NFC East. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win against an NFC East rival. And while they had a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Eagles, they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road when favored — and the Titans have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (8-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 24th. Texas Tech (7-5) has won three games in a row after their 51-48 upset victory in overtime against Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on November 26th. This game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: For those that question the motivation Ole Miss has for this game, then they don’t appreciate what Lane Kiffin is trying to do with this football program. Kiffin proclaimed himself the “portal king” after bringing in 15 transfer players last year — with many of them highly recruited out of high school. Kiffin firmly believes the paradigm has changed. Gone are the days of bringing in huge freshmen classes of players who will stay in the program for five years. Instead, high-profile coaches like Kiffin can recruit players from other schools and offer them high-profile jobs that represent either an upgrade from their current situation or more playing time from where they are at. Given that, bowl games like this — especially in prime time — are essential recruiting opportunities to sell the program. Now that the black cloud regarding the rumors of him taking the Auburn job that continued past kick-off in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State last month, Kiffin and his new contract extension are all-in with this program. It starts by ending the season on a positive note. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. And while Ole Miss has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kiffin’s roster is close to fully intact with no players opting out for the NFL draft. Three players entered the transfer portal including a cornerback in the two deep — but the departing defensive end only had 31 snaps and backup quarterback Luke Altmyer is clearly behind sophomore Jaxson Dart. The former USC transfer completed 63% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He is complemented by freshman phenom running back Quinshon Judkins who has rushed for 439 yards with a 6.18 Yards-Per-Carry despite the Rebels losing those games — all to bowl teams in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, by the way. Ole Miss outscored their opponents by +10.0 Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +109.5 net Yards-Per-Game. In their five road games, the Rebels outscored their opponents by +5.8 PG and outgained them by +135.0 net YPG. Led by Judkins and Dart who averaged 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in his 117 rushing attempts, Ole Miss was third in the nation by averaging 262 rushing YPG. They should have plenty of success running against this Red Raiders defense that ranks 90th in the FBS by allowing 166 rushing YPG. The Texas Tech defense is the weak link in this game — they rank 97th in the nation by allowing 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, the Red Raiders are allowing 540.0 YPG. This team comes into this bowl game riding high with two straight upsets against Iowa State and then the Sooners. But Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset against a Big 12 rival including four of these last five circumstances. Additionally, the Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point-spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. This team overachieved in the first season under head coach Joey McGuire — they have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. But this group is just 1-4 on the road with them getting outscored by -7.6 PPG. This Texas Tech is also without their All-American defensive end Tyree Wilson who has been out with an injury since November. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: McGuire was an assistant head coach for Baylor last year after being their tight ends coach for years — but his previous experience was as a long-time high school coach in Texas so this is his first bowl game as a head coach. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the SEC. Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah State (6-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 42-23 loss at Boise State as a 16.5-point underdog on November 25th. Memphis (6-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-31 loss at SMU as a 4-point underdog to end their regular season. This game is being played at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: SMU lost all four of their games decided by one possession. After settling for a 6-6 mark last year with 13 starters back from that squad, expectations were higher for this team rather than settling for another 6-6 campaign and a bowl date with a 6-6 team from the Mountain West Conference. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Memphis has a dynamic offense led by sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan who completed 27 of 44 passes for 287 yards in the loss to the Mustangs. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. Henigan will be challenged by a Utah State defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But the bigger problem for Memphis is their defense as they allow 27.3 Points-Per-Game — and in their five games on the road, they allowed their opponents to generate 420.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 36.2 PPG. The Tigers have a 25-4 record at home at Liberty Bowl Memorial since 2017 — but they were just 1-4 on the road this season. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after the first month of the season under head coach Ryan Silverfield. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. For Utah State, contrary to published reports, senior running back Calvin Tyler, Jr. is not opting-out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Said Tyler about these rumors, he is “definitely playing.” He rushed for 1043 yards this season. He is joined by junior quarterback Cooper Legas who may be labeled a third-stringer by some given the talent that second-year head coach Blake Anderson brought in through the transfer portal, but Legas was the Most Valuable Player in last year’s Louisiana Bowl when he led the Aggies to a 24-13 victory against Oregon State. He completed 23 of 40 passes for 306 yards and added 51 rushing yards against the stout Boise State defense in Utah State’s last game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. They should have success against this Memphis defense that ranks 104th in the FBS in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Tigers also rank 126th in the nation in Points Allowed from opponent trips inside their 40-yard line. After a 1-4 start which included losses at Alabama and BYU (along with bad losses to Weber State and UNLV), Utah State won five of their last seven games. The Aggies have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Anderson’s teams at Utah State and in his previous stint at Arkansas State have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a conference rival by double-digits. Anderson’s Utah State teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Indianapolis Colts (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory — and their defense will have something to prove tonight after giving up 36 points in the second half to the Vikings last week. Indianapolis gave up 518 total yards to Minnesota last week — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. The Colts will run the football to keep Justin Herbert off the field even without the injured Jonathan Taylor at running back. They ran for 171 yards against the Vikings — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they hold their guests to just 322.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while Justin Herbert completed 28 of 42 passes for 313 yards against the Titans, the Chargers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under current offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total in December — and the Colts have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total in games played in December. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Indianapolis Colts (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.                            

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Watching Tom Brady last night was excruciating — and I had long concluded that these rumors that he is going to go play for San Francisco or Las Vegas next year as a joke since he is a 45-year old QB with diminishing skills (but the Raiders may still decide to bring him here on as an attraction on the strip). And Tennessee was brutal for us on Saturday. But yet, here we go with the darn Indianapolis Colts tonight (in a situation I have been thinking about for weeks). I know interim head coach Jeff Saturday is a joke. But allow me to offer the gentle reminder that we are betting numbers rather than teams. We have Monday Night Football home dog getting more than a field goal coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history after going into halftime with a 33-0 lead against the Vikings — and, oh, it’s against a Brandon Staley-coached team. And, by the way, Nick Foles may be an upgrade at quarterback for Indianapolis because he can at least throw the football down the field still (as opposed to Matt Ryan). Success in sports gambling requires being willing to invest in bad teams (with the point spread, of course). In the NFL right now, it is pretty much all bad teams, in one way or another. If one wants to only invest in "good" NFL teams, well, then that is a recipe for passing on the entire card. If you need to hold your nose and look away, I don’t blame you. The Rams played great yesterday after being awful for us on Monday. These bad teams are also fickle. Irrespective of Jeff Saturday still deluding himself into thinking he still has a chance to get another head coaching job, the Colts players are embarrassed. It was only two weeks ago when they got demolished by a 33-0 score in the fourth quarter alone against Dallas. This team has been a laughing stock on national television for two straight weeks — so we are talking about professional pride at this point. As it is, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. They did cover the point spread for the first time in their last three games against Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home to Lucas Oil Stadium where they are outgaining their opponents in yardage. Indianapolis is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. Foles is making just his second start in over two years — but he held his own for Chicago last year by completing 24 of 35 passes for 250 yards while averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in a 25-24 victory against Seattle which included him orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The inconsistent Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is 4-3 on the road but still getting outgained in yardage. The defense ranks 22nd in the NFL in weighted Defensive DVOA. They rank 28th in Run Defense DVOA — and that unit is not getting any help from an offense that has passed the ball 51 times per game in their last four games. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season getting 3.5 or more points including both of their games at home under those circumstances. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Buccaneers' defense for the loss to the Bengals last week as they held the potent Cincinnati offense to just 237 total yards. Tampa Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Tampa Bay ranks 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They may have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona is on their third-string quarterback tonight after the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league) last week after he was replacing Kyler Murray who may be out another year with his torn ACL. The Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to McSorley. The Cardinals only gained 240 yards last week in their last at Denver — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. But the books still have them as a road favorite in the touchdown range. It may look easy for many to simply take the home underdog out of principle — but let’s not take the cheese. This Buccaneers team is going to continue to work hard with the playoffs — and an automatic home game in the first round by winning the NFC South — still in their control. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Bengals last week by 159 net yards. They gained 396 yards against the stout Cincinnati defense with Tom Brady completing 30 of 44 passes for 312 yards with two touchdown passes. It was the Buccaneers’ -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss. Tampa Bay held the Bengals’ offense to just 237 total yards — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. The deeper metrics indicate that the Buccaneers should be seeing better results than their win-loss record indicates. They are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They rank 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are outgaining their opponents in yardage while holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Despite their recent losing streak, Tampa Bay has outgained their last three opponents by +43.0 net YPG. Injuries have hit this team hard this season — especially on offense with their offensive line and their wide receiving corps. But this makeshift offensive line is starting to play better at this point of the season — and Brady finally has all his weapons back in the receiving game. Running the football has been an issue — but they are now getting productivity from rookie Rachaad White has 291 rushing yards in the last five games on 69 carries. Here now comes this Cardinals team that ranks 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run — and they allow opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arizona is a dumpster fire of a hot mess — to mix some metaphors. General manager Steve Keim is on a leave of absence. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury let it slip this week that he wants out of the organization with broken relationships with Keim, the owner, and Kyler Murray (who is out for perhaps the next year with his torn ACL). The team is a M*A*S*H unit with a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football that has exposed an already aging roster. And with the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league), the Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to their third-string quarterback. To compound matters, Arizona is 1-6 at home where they are getting outscored by -7.3 PPG and outgained by -64.4 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: To put it kindly, Kingsbury is not one of the best coaches in the NFL. It is telling that the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home in the second half of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the second half of the season. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders gained only 308 yards of offense in their victory against the Patriots last week — but they held New England to just 318 total yards. Las Vegas has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Raiders go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Las Vegas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh held the Panthers to just 209 total yards in their victory last week. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh held Carolina to only 21 rushing yards — and they have played 25 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. The Steelers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by three points or less. Furthermore, the Under is 35-15-1 in the Steelers’ last 51 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not help the offenses tonight with temperatures in the single digits Fahrenheit with the wind chill factor in the negatives. Even worse, winds will be in the 14 MPH range with gusts up to 30 MPH which will impact the vertical passing games while making it very difficult to kick field goals. As it is, the Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders needed one of biggest boneheaded plays in the history of the NFL to survive last week’s game at home against the Patriots — but the final nail to end their playoff hopes will probably be struck tonight. Las Vegas beat New England last week on Chandler Jones’ 48-yard fumble recovery after the Patriots’ Jacoby Meyers’ ill-advised lateral despite that game looking destined for overtime. The Raiders will not enjoy tonight’s weather in Pittsburgh with temperates in the single digits and the wind chill projected at -11. This team left Las Vegas weather that will be in the 50s here today — and, of course, they play their home games in the domed and air-conditioned Allegiant Stadium. Quarterback Derek Carr simply does not have much experience playing in cold weather in his career even going back to his college days at Fresno State. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. They gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots while getting outrushed by 135 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. And while Las Vegas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Carr has only won one game as a starting quarterback on the road in a prime-time game in his career. Despite having Davante Adams as his top wide receiver this season, he has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year. Carr’s unwillingness to scramble also limits his effectiveness at this point in his career. In his last seven games, he has run the ball only six times for 21 yards despite still being pretty adept with his feet. He has not rushed for a red zone touchdown in two years — making it easier for the opposing defense since he represents virtually zero threat to take off with the ball. The Raiders have turned the ball over seven times in their last four games — and Carr is responsible for six interceptions during that stretch. And then there is the Raiders' defense which is the only team in the league this season to allow opposing quarterbacks to register a Passer Rating of over 100. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. With T.J. Watt healthy and back on the field, the Steelers are playing a stout defense that has held their last four opponents to just 16.3 Points-Per-Game and 278.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers last week by +116 net yards while holding them to just 209 total yards. They ran the ball 42 times for 156 yards which helped them control time of possession for 36:11 minutes — and Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Running back Damien Harris has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games. And after Mitchell Trubisky led them to victory last week, the team gets back Kenny Pickett under center tonight who has won four of his last five starts when able to complete the game. The rookie is doing a great job of managing games — he has not thrown an interception in five straight games and 129 straight throws. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I was taking Pittsburgh in this game even before the sad news regarding the death of Steelers’ legend Franco Harris. The NFL had already planned a big celebration recognizing the 50th anniversary of Harris’ “immaculate reception” touchdown catch against the Raiders — and Pittsburgh is inducting Harris into their Hall of Fame tonight. Now emotions will be heavy after Harris died in his sleep Wednesday night (after a day full of interviews plugging tonight’s festivities). Teams respond to moments like this. When Walter Payton died in 1999, the Chicago Bears traveled to Green Bay and upset the Packers by a 14-13 score despite being a 9-point underdog and having not won at Lambeau Field since 1993. With so many former players in attendance tonight, head coach Mike Tomlin will impart the value this organization puts on tradition — and it will be an energized crowd to get one for Franco. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-7) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (1-12-1) has lost nine games in a row after their 30-24 loss in overtime against Kansas City as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent slide, Tennessee can still retain a one-game lead in the AFC South race with a victory this afternoon. The Titans will have to accomplish this feat without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is out perhaps the season with an ankle injury — so it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Regardless, this is going to be the Derrick Henry show today. The bell-cow running back loves playing against the Texans. In his last four games against Houston, Henry has run the ball 120 times for 892 rushing yards — that is an average of 220 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 30 carries per contest. He is averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Carry in those last four games -- and he has scored nine touchdowns in those contests. He should feast once again against a Texans-run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in DVOA Run Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders. Houston allows 148 rushing YPG on 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. And while the Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee returns home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow AFC South rivals. Houston has played Dallas and Kansas City to close games in the last two weeks — but they are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread win. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week despite surrendering 502 total yards and getting outgained by -283 net yards. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Texans are splitting time at quarterback between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel — but they combined to pass for only 125 yards last week. Houston only generated 219 total yards against Kansas City — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Houston is getting outgained by -107.5 net YPG this season. On the road, they are getting outscored by -6.8 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. In their last three games, they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG and getting outgained by -127 net YPG. The Texans are riddled with injuries — headlined by rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver Nico Collins being out for this game. Houston will struggle to run the ball against this Titans defense led by Jeffery Simmons which is the top-rated against the run according to the DVOA metrics. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will be looking to avenge a 17-10 loss at home to the Titans on October 30th in a game that Henry rushed for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated with revenge. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (7-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset loss at Duke as a 3-point favorite on November 26th. Missouri (6-6) has won two in a row and four of their last six after a 29-27 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers are a lower-scoring team that averages only 25.5 Points-Per-Game. They did not score more than 24 points eight times — and in their five games away from home, they scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 336.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Quarterback Brady Cook was up-and-down in his sophomore season — and he will be without his top wide receiver target Dominic Lovett who had 56 catches for 846 receiving yards as he is in the transfer portal. Missouri ran for 226 yards in their upset win against the Razorbacks en route to 468 total yards. The Tigers have played 5 straight Unders after rushing for 200 or more yards — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Under is also 35-16-2 in their last 53 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Missouri has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. The Tigers are dealing with some opt-outs on their defense — while they were 3rd in the SEC with 33 sacks, they are losing 17 of those sacks from three players making themselves available for the NFL draft. This remains a team that held their opponents to 337.9 total YPG this year. The offense perked up in their final three games when head coach Eli Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan — but Hamdan has left to take over the offensive coordinator gig at Boise State which means Drinkwitz will be back to calling plays again. A problem for this Tigers' offense was the play of their offensive line as they allowed 91 tackles for loss, ranking 114th in the nation. Missouri was 112th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed — and the Demon Deacons ranked 31st in the nation in Havoc Rate on defense. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Wake Forest has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread once in their last three games. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons gained 453 yards against the Blue Devils in their last game — but they surrendered 507 total yards. Wake Forest has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards. This will be the last game in a Deacons uniform for 5th-year quarterback Sam Hartman who will either enter the NFL draft or transfer to another program. He has led Wake Forest to score at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three straight games. All three of those games saw 65 or more combined points scored — but they have then played 4 straight Unders after playing three or more in a row with 60 or more combined points scored. The defense struggled in those three games without injured safety Malik Mustapha — but he is expected back for this game. The Demon Deacons' offense was more dynamic at home where they averaged 41.9 PPG while scoring at least 34 in each game. But Wake Forest’s four-lowest scoring efforts this year were on the road — including two games where they only scored 21 points. They averaged 29.8 PPG in their five road games — and their opponents' 388.0 YPG mark was -23.9 YPG lower than their season average, so their defense was a bit more effective. The Demon Deacons have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and Missouri has played 4 straight Unders on a neutral field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (229) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (230) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: UL-Louisiana (6-6) has won two of their last three games after their 41-13 win at Texas State as a 5-point favorite on November 26th. Houston (7-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 37-30 upset loss to Tulsa as a 13-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for the Cougars who entered the season as one of the favorites to win the American Athletic Conference and a dark horse favorite to represent the Group of Five in a New Years Six Bowl Game. But after returning 13 starters from their 12-2 campaign last year,             the Cougars underperformed due mostly to a defense that gave up 33.5 Points-Per-Game and 431.3 total Yards-Per-Game — a -13.1 net PPG and -130.2 net YPG drop from a season ago. The offense remained potent behind senior quarterback Clayton Thune — but for a team that passes the ball at the 12th highest rate in the nation, the weather conditions in Shreveport this afternoon will not be conducive to chucking the ball around 40 or more times. The temperature will be in the mid-20s with winds gusting in the 13-14 miles per hour range. The hardened ball with cold hands and winds impacting the trajectory of thrown passes impacts the ability to successfully execute the intermediate to long passing game — and the Ragin’ Cajuns will know this and be able to adapt. Thune complete 26 of 47 passes for 386 yards in the losing effort to the Golden Hurricane — but Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after passing for at least 375 yards in their last contest. The Cougars averaged 7.23 Yards-Per-Play while gaining 506 total yards against Tulsa — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in bowl games — and head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of his 9 bowl games. UL-Louisiana has a 7-3 straight-up record in bowl games. They should be very motivated to play well close to home against a higher-profile team from the American Athletic Conference. They lost all three of their games decided by one-scoring possession — so they could have had eight or even nine wins with a few more breaks. The Ragin’ Cajuns have some players opting out mostly on offense — but they will have sophomore quarterback Chase Fields under center after he missed several games in the middle of the year. He did return at the end of the season — and he completed 16 of 26 passes for 187 yards with two touchdown passes while leading the offense to 41 points. This game is important for the program as they build for next season — and Fields should have success against this Cougars' defense. Houston ranks 87th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They were 119th in the FBS by allowing 2.92 net points per drive — and they ranked 83rd in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. The strength of the Ragin’ Cajuns is probably their secondary which remains at full strength for this contest. UL-Lafayette held the Bobcats to just 133 passing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 21st in the nation in Opponent  Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they were graded as the 12th best coverage secondary by Pro Football Focus. They also rank 45th in the FBS in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. UL-Lafayette has covered the pint spray in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 10* CFB Independence Bowl ESPN Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (229) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) and the New York Jets (452). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. They scored 76 combined points in those two games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. And while they gained 192 rushing yards against the Cowboys last week, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound these matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. New York allowed 359 total yards last week to the Lions — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Given the weather conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home at MetLife Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 straight Unders against fellow AFC opponents. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) and the New York Jets (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). THE SITUATION: New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. But Jacksonville is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. But Jacksonville is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Jaguars have leaned heavily on Lawrence by asking him to throw 42 passes in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after attempting 40 or more passes in two straight games. The lack of a reliable rushing game will hurt Jacksonville tonight. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. The play of the Jaguars’ defense is a concern as well. They allowed 397 total yards last week with 154 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350 or more total yards. The Jaguars rank 28th in Defensive DVOA — and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 32.0 PPG and generate 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Jacksonville will now be without two of their best defensive players with linebacker Travon Walker (the top pick in the NFL draft) and defensive end Foley Fatukasi out for tonight’s game. Now the Jags play their third game on the road in their last four games on the road and on a short week under bad conditions for a Florida team. They are just 2-6 on the road while getting outgained by 55.9 net YPG. Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Wilson completed 18 of 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdown passes and only one interception — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Given the conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Lions gained 359 total yards last week — but the Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Jets only ran for 50 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after not rushing for more than 50 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC foes. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (224) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (223) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (8-4) has lost three games in a row after a 49-14 upset loss at home against New Mexico State as a 24-point favorite on November 26th. Toledo (8-5) won the Mid-American Conference Championship Game in a 17-7 victory against Ohio as a 3.5-point favorite on December 3rd. This game will be played at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty limped into the postseason getting upset in three straight games at Connecticut and Virginia Tech before laying an egg at home by five touchdowns as a 24-point favorite. Those losses against the Huskies and Hokies were just by four combined points before that debacle against the Aggies. Since that contest, head coach Hugh Freeze left to take the head coaching job at Auburn. Linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge serves as the interim head coach before Jamey Chadwell takes over the program after serving as the Coastal Carolina coach. Pulling the upset tonight will also Liberty to end the season on a positive note after the disappointing end to the season. The Flames are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while they allowed New Mexico State to rush for 214 yards, they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with two or more weeks of rest. Liberty has been a solid team playing away from home — they are 4-2 on the road with an average scoring margin of +5.4 Points-Per-Game. They outgain their opponents playing away from home by +79.8 net Yards-Per-Game. The Flames have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Toledo dominated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game by outgaining them by +128 net yards. But despite scoring 32.0 PPG this season, they have topped the 30-point mark just once in their last six games. The Rockets have a good defense — but they are vulnerable to giving up big plays. Toledo ranks 114th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed and 66th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. They were 5-1 when playing at home — but in their seven games on the road, they were just 3-4 while getting outscored by -5.5 PPG. The Rockets' offense will be challenged by a Flames defense that ranks 8th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Liberty has been stout against both the run and the pass — they rank 15th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 6th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 4th in Defensive Havoc Rate while leading the nation by averaging 9.1 tackles-for-loss per game and tied for third in the nation with 41 sacks. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games under head coach Jason Candle.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Liberty has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in December. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Liberty Flames (224) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (223). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Jose Spartans (222) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (221) in the Famous Potato Idaho Bowl. THE SITUATION: San Jose State (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-14 win against Hawai’i as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. Eastern Michigan (8-4) has won three games in a row after their 38-19 upset win against Central Michigan as a 1.5-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: This has been an emotional season for San Jose State after freshman running back Cameron Wright was killed crossing the street on an e-scooter in late October. It is probably not a coincidence that the Spartans ended the season failing to cover the point spread in six straight games. But this group can put a bow on their season with a successful effort in their bowl game — and it would be the first bowl victory for this program since 2015. The last thing I considered before investing in this game was the temperates in Boise being in the low-30s. How would this Bay Area team deal with the cold conditions? San Jose State played at Utah State on November 19th a month ago with the temperatures in Logan dropping into the 20s — and they lost 35-31 as a 1.5-point underdog. But former Hawai’i quarterback Chevan Cordeiro was effective under center by completing 20 of 30 passes for 257 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Cordeiro is a dual-threat who ran for 508 yards from scrambles this year — so I think this team will handle the weather just fine. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The Spartans’ defense will certainly travel and show up in the cold weather — they held their opponents to 20.3 Points-Per-Game this season. Led by defensive linemen Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall, San Jose State finished 14th in the nation in Havoc Rate while generating 36 sacks, ranking 5th in the nation. The Spartans ranked 20th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Head coach Brent Brennan brings his entire roster to Boise with no opt-outs or players in the transfer portal — and he has a healthy team. San Jose State thrives in the turnover department with a +12 net turnover margin on the season. Cordeiro protects the football with only four interceptions this year. They did not force a turnover against the Rainbow Warriors — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after not committing a turnover. They have not committed more than one turnover in a game this entire season — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after not committing more than one turnover in two more games in a row. Additionally, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. Eastern Michigan got outgained in yardage this season — but they benefited from a 5-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession to reach eight wins. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a win at home against a Mid-American Conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a win by 17 or more points. They are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point-spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 37 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Chippewas to only 175 yards in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Eastern Michigan will struggle to protect quarterback Taylor Powell — they ranked 85th in Pass Protection while giving up 30 sacks. On defense, they ranked 129th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potation Bowl ESPN Special with the San Jose Spartans (222) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (221). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The “handicapper” technical play is probably with Green Bay tonight — but I am relenting to my skepticism of that perspective for this one. Are the bookies telling us to take Green Bay with what I consider an overly high spread — or are the oddsmakers simply reacting to an overvalued Packers team by the market? I think it’s the latter. Green Bay has won only twice by more than a field goal this season — and both victories came against the Bears. While they are technically still alive in the NFC wildcard race, they would need a complete collapse from several teams ahead of them in the standings while winning out their final four games. Call me skeptical that this situation inspires Aaron Rodgers who has been in “don’t blame me” mode since training camp started. Even in their victory against Chicago two weeks ago, the Packers got outgained by -52 net yards after allowing the meager Bears offense to generate 409 total yards. It was a +3 net turnover margin that helped them win that game. With injuries to left tackle David Bakhtiari and linebacker Rashon Gary, this team is missing two of their best players moving forward. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Green Bay has allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Packers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games this season. While the Packers got the benefit of the bye, I am not sure how helpful that is this late in the season for a Super Bowl contender that is now likely out of the playoffs. Los Angeles has extra time to rest and prepare as well coming off the Thursday game last week. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in December. Look for them to keep this game close with McVay embracing the rare opportunity to play the spoiler role. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers has finally embraced the potential of the Green Bay offense if they commit to running the ball more behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. After bottoming out with just 12 rushing attempts in a 23-21 loss at Washington, the Packers have since run the ball at least 19 times in their last six games including 31 or more rushes in three of those games. They have gained at least 106 yards on the ground in five of those six games — and they gained 175 or more on the ground three times. Sticking with the running game helps Rodgers be more effective in the passing attack since defenders get burned for simply stepping back to defend the pass. It is not a coincidence that Christian Watson has stepped up as a deep threat in the second half of the season coinciding with these increased rushing efforts. Watson has now caught 11 of his 23 targets of more than 10 air yards — resulting in 294 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay has scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The Packers ran for 175 yards on 32 carries against the Bears — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Toal after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. But the play of the Packers' defense remains an issue — especially since the season-ending injury to linebacker Rashan Gary. The Packers have allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bears gained 409 yards against them two weeks ago — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. Green Bay returns home where Rodgers has been much more effective with a Passer Rating of 104 with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home at Lambeau Field. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the benefit of the mini-bye after playing on a Thursday. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns. But the Rams’ defense misses Aaron Donald who will be out once again for this game. They have given up 392.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they have surrendered 26 or more points in four of their last five games. They did hold the Raiders to 137 passing yards — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December. With both of these teams essentially out of the playoffs, look for a wild one tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (219) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (220) in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (6-6) was on a three-game winning streak before losing at Army by a 34-17 score as a 10.5-point underdog on November 19th. Marshall (8-4) has won four games in a row after their 28-23 victory against Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Connecticut vastly overachieved this season under first-year head coach Jim Mora. The Huskies only won one game last year after not playing in 2020 because of COVID. Mora inherited a mess — but the former Atlanta Falcons and UCLA head coach brought a sense of professionalism to the program. This is an important game for his football time — not only are they building momentum for next season, but this game will also help with recruiting. Expect a spirited effort from the double-digit underdogs. As it is, Connecticut has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Huskies closed out their season winning five of their last seven games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning five of their last seven games. They had covered the point spread in seven games in a row before their loss to Army — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Connecticut played an ambitious schedule this year as an independent with games against Michigan and Fresno State. Mora will use this game for the continued development of freshman quarterback Zion Turner. He is complemented by freshman running back Victor Rosa who ran for 561 yards and nine touchdowns. The Huskies enter this game at nearly full strength. No player is opting out for this game (a bowl game advantage for a program lacking NFL talent) — and only running back Nate Carter entered the transfer portal after losing out in playing time to Rosa. Wide receivers Cam Ross and Keenan Marion have been injured but might be able to return for this game. Marshall may be due for a letdown against a less-than-inspiring opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last six games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contents. And while the Thundering Herd surrendered 291 passing yards to the Panthers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the points spread in 4 straight games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their last game. Marshall has an outstanding defense that held their opponents to just 16.2 Points-Per-Game. But they benefited from winning three of their four games decided by one scoring possession. They were also fortunate to end the season with a +7 net turnover margin. The Thundering Herd have not committed a turnover in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they did not commit more than one turnover. They have also failed to cover the points spread in 35 of their last 51 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Marshall can struggle to score — they rank 127th in the nation by scoring just 2.7 points per drive inside their opponents' 40-yard line.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd have doled to cover the points spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the Connecticut Huskies (219) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: After getting embarrassed last win in Philadelphia, New York should respond with a strong effort against an opponent they are very familiar with after just playing them two weeks ago. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Washington is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread victory. They have the benefit of the bye for this rematch — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with an extra week of rest and preparation. They get the Giants at home this time — but they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. The Commanders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December — and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC East rivals. The Washington defense is outstanding — but they are vulnerable against effective passing attacks as they rank just 14th against the pass using the DVOA Defensive Ratings at Football Outsiders. The Giants rank 10th in Offensive DVOA — and they are 10th in the league in Passing DVOA despite the conventional wisdom surrounding quarterback Daniel Jones.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and Washington is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants only gained 304 total yards last week in their loss to the Eagles. After thriving under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, defenses have adjusted to running back Saquon Barkley who perhaps is beginning to tire in the back half of the season. Barkley ran the ball only nine times last week for 28 yards — and he has only 38 carries in his last three games for 130 rushing yards. The Under is 15-5-2 in New York’s last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point-spread loss. And while the Giants got outgained by -133 net yards, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last contest. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but the Under is then 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. But in their last three games, they are scoring just 20.7 PPG and generating just 306.7 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commanders ran for 165 yards against the Giants two weeks ago — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. They get the rematch at home where they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. But the Washington defense is playing as well as any defensive unit in the league lately. They have held their last three opponents to 14.3 PPG and 279.3 YPG — and this group will be even better if and when Chase Young returns to action from his injury (which could be tonight). The Commanders have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home in the second half of the season. They have also played 4 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-1 in Washington’s last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in December. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 16-14 upset loss against Baltimore as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday. Carolina (5-8) has won two straight and three of their last four games after a 30-24 upset win in Seattle as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh endured a -2 net turnover last week against their arch-rivals — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while they only gained 65 yards on the ground against the stout Ravens run defense, they are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Steelers have still rushed for 471 yards in their last three games for a robust 157 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. Pittsburgh has held six of their last eight opponents to 18 or fewer points. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. With rookie Kenny Pickett out for this game, head coach Mike Tomlin turns back to Mitchell Trubisky under center — and the Steelers probably still have the edge at quarterback against the Panthers’ Sam Darnold. He is completing only 58% of his passes and averaging 148 passing Yards-Per-Game since taking over as the starter. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now the Panthers return home where they are just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when favored. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (5-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five contests — after their 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 4th. New Orleans (4-9) has lost two in a row — and four of their last five as well — after a 17-16 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only gained 306 total yards against the Steelers in their last game. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game and generating a mere 306.0 total YPG in their last three contests. It is this ineptitude on offense that played a role in head coach Arthur Smith benching Marcus Mariota and turning to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has yet to appear in an NFL game this season — this will be a tough test in a very hostile environment against a stout defense. With tight end Kyle Pitts out the season with a torn MCL, this remains a limited Falcons’ offense that lacks weapons in the passing attack. Ridder may offer a more credible vertical threat in the passing game, but Smith is not going to ask Ridder to do too much — and this will remain a run-first team. Atlanta is scoring only 19.0 PPG and generating 290.8 total YPG in their six games on the road. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Falcons have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Atlanta surrendered 154 rushing yards to the Steelers in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams that lack a winning record at home. New Orleans only gained 298 yards in their loss to the Buccaneers just under two weeks ago. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. And while they only rushed for 66 yards against Tampa Bay, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 90 rushing yards in their last contest. New Orleans is scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 293.7 total YPG in those games. But the Saints are staying competitive by holding those last three opponents to 16.7 PPG — and they only allow 307.0 total YPG in their six games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December — and the Saints have played 5 straight Unders in December. This is a rematch of New Orleans’ 27-26 win in Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on September 11th — but these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Under the Total. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (217) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (218) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: North Texas (7-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-27 loss to UTSA in the Conference USA Championship Game as an 8-point underdog on December 2nd. Boise State (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 28-16 upset loss to Fresno State as a 3-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 3rd. This game will be played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas should be plenty motivated to play well in this game. After they failed to stay close with the Roadrunners in their first trip to the Conference USA Championship Game under Sean Littrell, the administration fired him in his seventh year with the program. Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett serves as the interim head coach before Washington State offensive coordinator, Eric Morris, takes over as the new face of the program. The team is in good hands under Bennett who was previously the head coach at SMU. The Mean Green lost all five of their bowl games under Littrell — this group would love to erase that mark. They are led by their 29-year-old quarterback Austin Aune who is entering the NFL draft after this game but still decided to play in it. This provides the former New York Yankees prospect an opportunity to audition for an NFL team who may not be drafting their next starting QB but who are looking for a capable backup to bolster their quarterback room. For the love of God after handicapping the roster attrition for the 12 teams that played in bowl games today, North Texas enters this game with zero opt-outs, zero players in the transfer portal, and a healthy roster. That’s not why I am investing in them, but it doesn’t hurt. The Mean Green have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while they gave up 571 total yards to UTSA, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last contest. They went into halftime of that game trailing by a 24-10 score — but they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Aune is a gunslinger who passed for over 3300 yards with 32 touchdown passes. He is complemented by a three-headed monster in the backfield with Ikaika Ragsdale, Ayo Adeyi, and Oscar Adaway III helping the team generate 202 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking in the top 25 in the nation. The Mean Green are happy to get into a scoring fest. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a contest where 70 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Boise State is playing in its first bowl game since 2019 after opting out of the postseason in each of the last two seasons. They only gained 321 yards in their loss to Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. They won seven of their final nine games after head coach Andy Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and benched senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier for Taylor Green. The 6’6 freshman offers a dual threat as he averaged 40.5 rushing YPG with his legs. But he only generated 194.4 passing YPG in the air and may not have the chops just yet to outduel Aune. The Broncos lean on their defense — they held the Bulldogs to only 72 rushing yards and 245 total yards. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in non-conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (217) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Buffalo Bills (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — and to quote Dan Marino, who most certainly has communicated this to Tua Tagovailoa this week, his mantra was “if it’s snowin’, I’m throwin’!” The snowy conditions can actually help the offense — especially with the Dolphins' speed at wide receiver with Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle — since defenders have to react but might not have as good of traction on the ground. Frankly, head coach Mike McDaniel needs to step up now after two weeks where his schemes were exposed by man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Most defenses were playing zone coverages against the Dolphins because of their speed at wide receiver — now McDaniel needs to dial up plays to give Tagovailoa enough time in the pocket to go deep against what will likely be single coverage. With running back Jeff Wilson questionable with a hip injury, Miami is not likely to lean heavily on their rushing attack in this game. Tagovailoa only passed for 145 yards last week against the Chargers with the Dolphins just generating 219 total yards. But they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to gain more than 150 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last contest. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. They stay on the road for the third straight week where they are getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home against an AFC East rival. And while the Bills have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 27 of their last 40 games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 22 combined points — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — he was their best pass rusher. They stay at home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG and generating 410.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total when hosting the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Buffalo Bills (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — but Tua Tagovailoa will probably not be playing on snow, so his experience with the Alabama winters will offer him some familiarity. Yes, I am worried about how Tagovailoa and his team will handle the cold weather. In his two previous starts in December and January, Tagovailoa completed only 55.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 yards-per-attempt and posting a loss Passer Rating of 58.8. Miami got outscored by 61 combined points in those two games. But what I am more concerned about with this Dolphins team is the travel grind they have been on that has led to this chilly environment as their final destination for a three-game road trip. Miami has spent the last two weeks in California playing in San Francisco and Los Angeles. That is a challenging road trip for any NFL team — but it is probably even worse for a southern team who felt the need to use heaters on the sidelines to adjust to the 50-degree weather in LA last week. Even more concerning is the defensive adjustment that the 49ers made against the Mike McDaniel passing attack. While most teams have played zone coverages to account for the speed of Miami wide receivers Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Niners played man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Tagovailoa thrives in this style of play given his ultra-quick release and sharp accuracy — but he gets into trouble if he has to turn to his second or third options. The Chargers copied this approach last week — and it is something the Bills are most likely going to continue. In his last two games, Tagovailoa has completed only 28 of 61 passes for a 45.9% completed percentage with just 440 passing yards, a lower 7.2 YPA average, and five sacks. Frankly, the Dolphins might be finally getting exposed as a solid but unspectacular team. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.3 PPG and outgaining them by +17.0 net YPG. They have +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Their five-game winning streak was all against teams currently with losing records with a combined 20-46-1 mark. When Detroit is the team with the best record during a five-game hot streak, perhaps you are a beneficiary of a favorable schedule? On the road, Miami is getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG.  The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — but this team stocked up with defensive linemen in the offseason providing them the depth to compensate for injuries. The Buffalo defense is allowing only 14.4 PPG and 292.3 YPG in their last three games — and they have only one touchdown in each of their last two games. The Bills are outscoring their opponents at home by +16.8 PPG due to an explosive offense that scores 31.2 PPG and generates 410.6 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range. This team will embrace the cold weather — and Allen’s experience in chilly weather from his collegiate experience at Wyoming is a better preparation for what he will face than Tagovailoa’s winter experiences in Alabama. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo against the Bills. The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (201) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (202) in the Bahamas Bowl. Miami (OH) (6-6) won three of their last four games to end their regular season concluding with an 18-17 victory against Ball State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 22nd. UAB (6-6) won two of their last three games after a 37-27 victory at Louisiana Tech as an 18.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is being played at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) looks to cap off their season under head coach Chuck Martin in his ninth year with the program. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has missed the last two games due to injury — and redshirt freshman Aveon Smith has played well in his absence. Gabbert planned to enter the transfer portal earlier this month — but he has since rescinded that decision. It is unclear if he will play in this game — but his return is a good indicator that there are good feelings inside the program moving forward. The RedHawks have covered the point spread 6 in their last 9 games after a narrow win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last contest. And while Miami (OH) gave up 265 rushing yards to the Cardinals, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last game. The RedHawks are a good defensive team that only allows 22.5 Points-Per-Game. They should play better in defending the run considering they ranked 40th in the nation by holding their opponents to 135.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they ranked 22nd in the FBS in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. If Smith is under center again, he offers Miami (OH) a dual-threat option that Gabbert lacks. He led the team with 503 rushing after rushing for 84 yards against Ball State. He also passed for 217 yards with a touchdown pass. UAB may be enjoying the Bahamas with their new head coach Trent Dilfer waiting in the wings. After Bill Clark surprised the program by stepping down in the summer, offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent was tapped as the interim head coach. He led the team to a 6-6 record and this bowl — but it could have been more after they lost all five games decided by one-scoring possession. While the Blazers are better than their .500 record, their motivation now as a double-digit favorite is the more pertinent question at hand. As it is, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games away from home after only covering the point spread once in their last three contests. And while the Blazers surrendered 467 total yards to the Bulldogs in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 450 or more yards. After a four-turnover game on the road at Western Kentucky, UAB has only committed three turnovers — and never more than one a game — in five straight contests. But the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. To compound matters, they will be without their leading rusher, DeWayne McBride who is dealing with an unspecified injury. While senior running back Jermaine Brown ran for 832 yards this season, McBride was the best offensive player on the team with his 1713 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: UAB is in a bit of a transition from the Clark era to the hiring of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Dilfer whose head coaching experience is at a Nashville private high school. Miami (OH) is an established program under Martin that have a solid record of performing well in the postseason. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games including their 27-14 win against North Texas in the Frisco Football Classic last year. Miami (OH) may not pull the upset — but they should keep this game close. 10* CFB Bahamas Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (201) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. But they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. The Seahawks' defense simply got gassed last week by staying on the field while Carolina racked up first down after first down. Seattle should step up their game tonight after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games at home after getting upset in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games Thursday Night Football. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games on the road after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to three points. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE:  This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and Seattle has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. San Francisco is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Seattle. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense stymied Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense by holding them to 322 total yards. This San Francisco defense has not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games — and their last three opponents have combined for just 24 total points. With this Niners' defense closer to full strength after dealing with injuries, they are making a strong case that they are the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game and 286.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 2nd and 5th in Run Defense and Pass Defense according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. San Francisco ranks 2nd in Defensive DVOA  overall and 1st in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent performances. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by three or more touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. San Francisco will make it very difficult for the Seahawks to run the football — the 69 rushing yards Tampa Bay generated against them was actually the most yards they have allowed on the ground in their last six games. The 49ers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. They have also played 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. And while they have played two straight Overs with Purdy under center, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. The Seahawks have been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. And they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 148 passing yards in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and San Francisco has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and the Seahawks have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They managed only 242 total yards of offense against the Bills last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 road games against a team with a losing record — and they have played 6 straight Unders when on the road and favored up to three points. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. It is no secret that New England is challenged on offense — and injuries on their offensive line along with running back Damien Harris and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers are not helping matters. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. The Cardinals have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring just 22.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging 327.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the last four weeks of the regular season — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game.  And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins may have an 8-4 record — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +0.8 Points-Per-Game. Five of their eight victories were decided by one scoring possession. They are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Miami only gained 308 total yards against the 49ers — and their mere eight rushing attempts provided them only 33 yards of rushing. While rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is lauded by many as an offensive genius for the passing plays he can draw up, his teams can get lulled into passing the ball too much and burning his tiring defense. The Dolphins were only on offense for 19:26 minutes against the Niners. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Miami stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and they allow their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game while getting outscored by -6.6 net Points-Per-Game in their six road contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Los Angeles’ four of six losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They have still covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Justin Herbert completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards in the losing effort against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. While I cannot wait for Herbert to operate in a better-conceived offense next season (most likely designed by Sean Payton), he has a great opportunity to find success tonight against this Dolphins’ pass defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: This is the battle of the Game Management Challenged Head Coaches — I shudder at the thought of what the supposed “The Analytics” (that assumes that every statistical moment is the same and that momentum does not exist — it is just “hindsight bias,” a convenient psychological conclusion by these quants to evade what would otherwise be a prima-facie indictment of all their 4th down probability numbers) will compel these coaches to do tonight. The Special Teams DVOA numbers rate Miami as having the worst Special Teams in the NFL — and the Chargers come in at a solid 12th in those rankings. Los Angeles has been an underdog 4 times this season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of these contests. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in four straight games before getting stymied by the 49ers’ stout defense. Now playing this weak Chargers defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who struggled under the pressure of the San Francisco pass rush last week. Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in Passer Rating — and now he faces a defense that ranks 26th in the NFL using the weighted DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders that privileges the most recent results. Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns but two interceptions against the Niners. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Dolphins stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and their offense generates 397.2 Yards-Per-Game away from home. But Miami also allows their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chargers average 353.7 total YPG, Miami has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average at least 350 YPG. Injuries have not helped the Los Angeles cause with linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson among their best players that have been out for an extended basis — and star safety Derwin James is doubtful to play tonight after missing practice all week with a quad injury. But the defensive problems go deeper than that. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has been ineffective in taking care of his side of the football after being hired after one season as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. In hindsight, the Rams’ defensive success that year probably has much more to do with Aaron Donald than it did with Staley’s schemes which effectively deployed nickel and dime schemes with Donald still clogging the run lanes. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to generate 420.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game from these foes. Los Angeles returns home to SoFi Stadium where they are giving up 28.0 PPG. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Justin Herbert usually manages to keep his team competitive with four of the Chargers’ six losses being decided by one scoring possession. He completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. Los Angeles gained 386 yards in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angles has played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-8) has lost seven of their last nine games after their 40-14 loss at Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Tennessee (7-5) has lost two games in a row after a 35-10 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars managed only 266 total yards of offense in their loss to the Lions last week. They have not scored more than 17 points in four of their last six contests — and they are averaging just 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Jaguars stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Ryan Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for just 141 yards  — and he was relieved by rookie Malik Willis who completed 2 of his 4 passes for another 16 yards. The Titans managed to generate only 209 total yards of offense against the Eagles. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last games. That result appeared to be the final straw for ownership who fired general manager Jon Robinson earlier this week for, in large part, trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on draft day. The issue was never the importance of Brown — it was whether or not the organization was going to meet his eventual sky-high contract demands. In hindsight, trading him to Philly and then drafting Treylon Burks in the first round later that night. But Burks has been injured for much of the season — and he is questionable to play today after not practicing this week. Without Burks yet stepping up, the Titans' offense lacks a number-one target in the passing game. Injuries on the offensive line have compounded matters — most notably, left tackle Taylor Lewan is out the season. But perhaps the biggest concern for this offense relates to running back Derrick Henry who seems to have hit a wall. In his last four games, he has run the ball 75 times for just 208 rushing yards with only one touchdown. Not only is he averaging just 2.78 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not generated more than 3.1 YPC in any of those four games. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games. And while the Jaguars' defense has been a disappointment, they are solid against the run railing 13th in the league using the DVOA analytics by Football Outsides. But the Titans' defense remains solid as their loss to Philadelphia was the first time they allowed more than 20 points since Week Three. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 17 or fewer points. They allowed 453 yards last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after alloying 350 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they are allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down — and they might have gotten their best game of the season last week from embattled running back Cam Akers last week who scored two touchdowns while running for 60 yards. Frankly, I am not surprised at all about the fall of this Rams team this season — I considered them the most likely Super Bowl winner in (at least) the last twenty years to suffer from a championship hangover. Playing a living in Los Angeles after surviving several close scares in the postseason last year combined with their lack of depth — I was selling this team in August. But I expect some championship pride to show up for this team on national television tonight — and they really do not have much reason to tank since their first-round draft pick belongs to Detroit in the Stafford trade. Granted, defensive tackle Aaron Donald and wide receiver Cooper Kupp are also all for this game — but that is why the Rams are getting six or so points at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And while they have allowed 26 or more points in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 25 points in four straight games. Las Vegas' three-game winning streak included upset wins at Seattle and Denver before they rallied from a 10-point second-quarter deficit to beat the Chargers last week. The Raiders have gained at least 404 yards in three straight games after generating that amount of yardage last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has averaged 462.3 YPG in those last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 450 YPG in their last three games. But consistency has remained a problem for the Raiders under quarterback Derek Carr. Las Vegas gained 400 or more yards just once in their first nine games. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders stay on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. Furthermore, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in December — and Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in December. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After only gaining 400 or more yards once in their first nine games, the Raiders have topped the 400-yard threshold in three straight games after they gained 404 yards against the Chargers. But Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 350 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders held the Chargers to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Las Vegas stays on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down. They gained 171 rushing yards last week against the Seahawks — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. The Rams have been a gigantic disappointment, especially on offense where they are scoring 16.8 PPG and averaging 281.3 YPG this season — and they are managing just 17.7 PPG and 284.3 YPG in their last three games. Los Angeles misses left tackle Andrew Whitworth who retired in the offseason — and subsequent injuries on the offensive line have made this unit a shell of the one that helped them win the Super Bowl last season. The Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week as well — but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
 
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints’ offense hit rock bottom last week against the 49ers by failing to score a point and only generating 260 yards of offense. It is dangerous to fade offenses embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But don’t sleep on this New Orleans defense that ranks 15th in the league in DVOA. They have held their last three opponents to 17.7 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 345.8 total Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road. The Saints have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders in December. Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. They are scoring only 18.2 PPG this season — and they have scored just 18.0 PPG in their last three games. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Buccaneers' defense surrendered 367 yards to the Browns last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against division rivals. Tampa Bay has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in Tampa Bay Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But …  running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the  Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think much of Jeff Saturday as an interim head coach — but the main benefit of his move from Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to the leader of the 2022-23 team is that he had the leverage to install Matt Ryan back at quarterback. The Colts began the year as a .500 team — and they are still basically a .500 team. Despite their losing record, they are outgaining their opponents by +9.9 net Yards-Per-Game. The opportunity to take them as a double-digit underdog presents too much value to pass up. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They did outgain the Giants last week by +130 net yards on the strength of generating 430 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. And while the Cowboys have averaged 436.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts managed only 290 yards of offense against the Steelers. They have not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games and seven of their last nine contests. They have not scored more than 21 points in ten of their 12 games. They are averaging only 15.8 Points-Per-game on the season — and in their five games on the road, they are scoring just 11.7 PPG and averaging 311.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 4 straight Unders when playing on a short week after a game on Monday. And while the Colts endured a -2 net turnover margin against Pittsburgh, they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range including 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in that range. Indianapolis has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 42 games played in December, 30 of these games finished Under the Total. Dallas has the top-ranked defense using the DVOA analytics. They have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less with four of their opponents failing to score more than 10 points. They lead the NFL in sacks which likely spells a nightmare for the immobile statue that is the aging Matt Ryan tonight. They held the Giants to just 300 total yards in their Thanksgiving game. They outgained New York by +130 net yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Giants — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 30 passes for 261 yards in the win — but Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 16.8 PPG and 313.5 total YPG — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (321) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (322) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-2)  had their two-game winning streak end in a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. North Carolina (9-3) has lost two straight games after getting upset for the second-straight time in a 30-27 loss to North Carolina State in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have scored 30 or more points in three straight games and ten of their 13 contests this season. But their defense let them down last week against the Gamecocks as they surrendered 414 total yards. Clemson has given up 28 or more points in four of their games this season — they can be exposed. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they did go into halftime with a 23-14 lead, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 20 points in the first half of their last game. Running back Will Shipley only ran the ball 15 times last week despite averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Carry — expect a heavy load from Shipley tonight against this Tar Heels defense that allows 170 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Shipley averages 5.8 YPC — and he has 35 gains of 10 or more yards this season. Quarterback D.J. Uigalelei has been a disappointment this year — but he is at his most dangerous against defenses like North Carolina that give up big plays. Uigalelei has passes classified as Big Throws 22 times this season with 20 or more air yards — and the Tar Heels rank 109th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Wake Forest’s Sam Hartmann averaged 10.3 Yards-Per-Attempt against North Carolina earlier this year. Clemson running the football and then dropping long passes should generate plenty of points — they rank 19th in Rush Success Rate and 26th in Line Yards. They gained 237 rushing yards on the ground last week — and they have played 4 straight Overs the Total after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have played two straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. Clemson has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. The Tigers’ defense is vulnerable to giving up big plays — they rank 63rd in Explosiveness Allowed. North Carolina averages 4.75 Points-Per-Drive inside the opponent's 40-yard line which is the 4th-best mark in the nation. Quarterback Drake Maye ranks 4th in the country by Pro Football Focus with a passing grade of 91.1. On passes of 10 or more air yards, Maye has 40 passes classified as “Big Time” — and his PFF passing grade rises to 92. He leads an offense that has scored 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games. And in their six games away from home, the Tar Heels score 38.3 Points-Per-Game and generate 513.7 Yards-Per-Game. But this porous North Carolina defense gives up 35.0 PPG and 510.0 YPG in those six road games. They have given up at least 21 points in all but one of their games. The Tar Heels have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss to an ACC rival by seven points or less. Furthermore, North Carolina has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Back to that defense — the Tar Heels rank 112th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 6.0 Yards-Per-Play. They rank 120th in Opponent Success Rate. They have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t expect many field goals in this game — Clemson ranks 24th in the nation Finishing Drive Rate while North Carolina ranks 4th in that metric (and this dynamic becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy since both coaches know this). The Tigers have played 6 straight Overs on a neutral field with the Total set at 63 or higher — and North Carolina has played 4 straight Overs on a neutral field. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (321) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Fresno State (8-4) has won seven games in a row after their 30-0 win against Wyoming as a 14-point favorite last Friday. Boise State (9-3) has won three in a row — and seven of their last eight — after their 42-23 victory against Utah State as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State’s numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt given the midseason injury to senior quarterback Jake Haener. The gunslinger will be one of the top quarterbacks taken in the NFL draft this spring. In the seven games he finished this year, he averaged 330.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. For the year, he completed 73.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. Even without Haener under center all season, the Bulldogs ranked 15th in the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they were top 25 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. They scored 30.9 Points-Per-Game and generated 407.0 Yards-Per-Game. They should continue off the momentum they have established since Haener returned to action. Fresno State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after winning three or more conference games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. Fresno State has a good defense that gives up only 20.8 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by double-digits. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Broncos' season turned around after a 2-2 start when offensive coordinator Tim Plough was replaced by former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and veteran offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Freshman Taylor Green took over under center — and he led the team to a 6-1 record. While Green offers a running threat, he is not as dynamic as a passer as he averages only 196.9 passing YPG. He led an offense that averaged 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating 6.75 or YPP in their last game. Boise State gets to host this game on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-3) rides a three-game winning streak after their 47-27 win against Kansas as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (12-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 62-14 victory against Iowa State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINT(S): I suspect the bubble bursts for the Horned Frogs who have been riding a wave of good fortune this season. TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. They have won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They enjoy a +10 net turnover margin on the year — and they have only committed two turnovers in their last four games. Now this team faces the pressure of needing the win to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff. Do the Horned Frogs still make the playoff with a loss this afternoon? Who knows what this (crooked) committee will do? Before one says, “of course, they do, the one-loss teams are in!” — keep in mind that TCU would be at least a touchdown underdog on a neutral field against both Ohio State and Alabama. The committee faces an existential crisis regarding how they justify their TV show (which promotes their later televised games involving the ranked teams, always positioned for the game to represent a de-facto playoff game). They may decide to dodge the Ohio State versus Alabama question by screwing the Big 12 team — and the analytics will defend that position. The uncertainty adds pressure — and, frankly, the fact that TCU may think they will still can back may only compound matters. I don’t like it. As it is, the Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They only outgained the Cyclones last week by +47 net yards — they benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. But now they go on the road where they are only outgaining their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game while allowing their opponents to generate 415.7 net YPG. We saw last night with USC how teams with shaky defenses perform under pressure in neutral environments against physical opponents. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field when favored by seven points or less. Kansas State gets to play the role of the spoiler — and they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory against a Big 12 opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Wildcats generated 7.16 Yards-Per-Play against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last contest. Kansas State averaged 6.33 YPP in their previous game at West Virginia — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Spencer Howard will be the starting quarterback in this game with Adrian Martinez still not 100%.   What Howard lacks in matching Martinez’s rushing ability, he makes up for in offering a vertical passing threat. Howard has 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions under key situations this season. In his last four starts for the Wildcats, he is leading an offense that generates 6.2 YPP — and Kansas State has outscored their opponents by an average score of 44-15. Martinez should be available as a backup — and he may get to play a few special packages that emphasize his running ability. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 38-28 loss at TCU on October 22nd in a game where Martinez got injured in the contest and then Howard got banged up coming in relief which neutralized his effectiveness. The Wildcats held a 28-10 second-quarter lead before Howard got injured and they did not score the rest of the way. But Kansas State has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Horned Frogs. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Toledo (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 20-14 upset loss at Western Michigan as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday. Ohio (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 38-14 win against Bowling Green as a 5.5-point favorite back on November 22nd. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo limps into the MAC Championship Game — but keep in mind that they had clinched their spot in this game for weeks. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback with starter DeQuan Finn dealing with upper body and ankle injuries and backup Tucker Gleason hampered by an injury to his non-throwing hand. But Finn did start last week before getting pulled after throwing two interceptions. Expect Finn to play better. This is a step-up game for the Rockets who were projected as the favorites to win the conference title this year. Seventh-year head coach Jason Candle needs to bring this one home with rumblings getting louder in the Toledo fan base that his top-rated conference recruiting classes in five of the last six years should have produced more than one championship. The Rockets’ victory today should start with the play of their defense. They rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 11th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. They held the Broncos to just 188 total yards but lost that game because of a -3 net turnover margin. Toledo has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. The offensive effort last week was a disappointment — but they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. Ohio has an even more dire situation at quarterback after Kurtis Rourke suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. Rourke posted a raw QBR of 81 which was the second-best mark of all quarterbacks playing for a Group of Five teams. The Bobcats experience a big drop-off in play with backup quarterback C.J. Harris who completed only 10 of 21 passes for 196 yards last week. While Harris does offer the team a dual-threat rushing option, now Toledo has game tape on how Ohio wants to deploy him. Not much was expected of this Bobcats team that was 3-9 last year in the first season under head coach Tim Ahlin. But the Bobcats have lived on an opportunistic defense that has forced 24 turnovers this year. However, it is difficult to continue to rely on winning the turnover battle as Ohio has a +13 net turnover margin this season. They have only committed one turnover in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The takeaways are obscuring the fact that the Bobcats are getting outgained in yardage this season. When playing away from home, Ohio is getting outscored by -4.5 net Points-Per-Game and outgained by -77.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has pulled off four upset wins this year — but one of those upsets was not at home against the Rockets earlier this year when they got beat by a 35-23 score. The Bobcats rank 113th in the nation in  Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they give up 441.8 total YPG. Toledo has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow 425 or more YPG. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Blowout of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won five of their last six games after their 63-21 victory at Colorado as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. USC (11-1) has won five in a row after a 38-27 win against Notre Dame as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah will be quite familiar with these circumstances tonight as they are playing in their fourth Pac-12 Championship Game in the last five seasons. This will be a confident team who rallied from 14-0 and 21-7 first-quarter deficits to defeat the Trojans at home by a 43-42 score on October 15th. Head coach Kyle Whittingham should have an interesting game plan to slow down USC’s likely Heisman Trophy quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams passed for 381 yards and five touchdowns, the Utes sacked him four times and pressured him into some bad throws after that initial quarter. USC only scored 20 points in the final three-quarters of that game. The Utah defense stopped the Trojans in 15 of their 28 third or fourth downs. Since the USC game, the Utes have held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and four of the touchdowns they gave up came in garbage time. Furthermore, Utah has given up more than 67 rushing yards only once in those five games. The Utes held the Buffaloes last week to just 185 total yards despite giving the most points since that Trojans game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Utah should build off their late-season momentum as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Utes generated a whopping 662 yards against Colorado — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 or more yards in their last contest. Quarterback Cam Rising completed 17 of 19 passes for 234 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Rising starred in the first meeting with USC by completing 30 of 44 passes for 415 yards. Tight end Dalton Kinkaid was unstoppable by catching all 16 of his targets for 234 yards. The weak link in this game is the Trojans' defense — they are surrendering 33.4 PPG and 475.6 YPG when playing away from home. USC ranks 116th in the nation in Opponents' Pass Success Rate Allowed and 121st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. USC gave up 318 passing yards to Notre Dame last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their last contest. They have been fortunate with a +22 net turnover margin on the season with only two giveaways all season — the second-best turnover margin this season is owned by Duke a +15 which is a dramatic gap.

FINAL TAKE: The stakes could not be higher for USC since it appears that a victory would get them into the College Football Playoff. This will be their third-straight high-emotion game after rivalry games against UCLA and Notre Dame. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Utah-USC Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). THE SITUATION: Akron (2-9) snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 44-12 upset win at Northern Illinois as a 9.5-point underdog last Saturday. Buffalo (5-6) has lost three in a row after a 30-27 loss in overtime to Kent State as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game got rescheduled after the blizzard in Buffalo two weeks ago postponed this contest originally planned for November 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls need to end their recent slide and get the victory this afternoon to become bowl eligible — so head coach Maurice Linguist’s team will be motivated to play well. Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home to a conference rival. And while that game finished Over the 50.5-point Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in ten straight games while averaging 29.5 Points-Per-Game on the season. But stopping their opponent has been an issue as they are allowing 28.5 PPG and 404.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home at UB Stadium — and they have surrendered 35.3 PPG and 422.0 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has disappointed in their first year under head coach Joe Moorhead — but he will want to end the season on a high note. D.J. Irons was the starting quarterback for most of the season before missing the last two because of injury. Junior Jeff Undercuffler stepped up last week by completing 21 of 32 passes for 312 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Zips offense to 512 total yards. Look for the offensive fireworks to continue as Akron has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Zips have scored 72 combined points in their last two games — and they have reached at least 27 points in five of their last seven games. Despite their nine losses, Akron has lost four of their last seven games by one possession. But their defense had surrendered at least 27 points in six straight games before their surprising performance against the Huskies last week. The Zips have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Akron has allowed 36 PPG against FBS opponents — and they let their opponents generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which are both outside the top 115 marks in the nation. When playing on the road, the Zips give up 39.3 PPG and 461.7 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Akron has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog — and Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). THE SITUATION: New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England outgained the Vikings by +51 net yards but still lost on the road at Minnesota. The Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. New England’s defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. The encouraging aspect of their loss last week was that Mac Jones played one of his best games of the season by completing 28 of 39 passes for 382 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Patriots gained 409 total yards in that game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. New England returns home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC opponents. Buffalo will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury. The Bills score 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and New England is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving. New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo held the Lions to just 326 yards in the victory last week. They will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury — but their defense is getting healthier with defensive ends Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa along with middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds full participants in practice this week. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while Buffalo has seen at least 53 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two or more games with 50 or more combined points scored. The Bills have averaged 414.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo scores 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders as a road favorite. Buffalo’s defense remains elite even without Miller — they rank 3rd in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have held their last three opponents to 310.0 YPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they gained 409 total yards against the Vikings, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England only gained 45 yards on the ground in that game — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots' defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank just 25th in the NFL in DVOA on offense — ranking 24th with their running game and 22nd with their passing game. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without running back Damien Harris and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. They are only generating 303.0 YPG in their last three games. New England has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots will want to slow this game down by running the football and likely playing two high safeties to dare the Bills to run the football and get out of their passing attack. New England has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against rivals from the AFC. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) and the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 straight Unders after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And while they generated 408 total yards in their last game, the Under is then 45-21-2 in their last 68 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh has held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games where they are scoring only 13.2 Points Per Game and averaging just 316.0 total Yards Per Game. The Under is 46-20-1 in their last 67 games on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings against each other Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) and the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay will get extra time to rest, heal, and prepare for this game after getting the Thursday night game last week. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing on a Thursday in their previous game. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. I expect this team will get back to running the football tonight. After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL by the DVOA ratings at Football Outsiders — and they will be running the ball against an Eagles defense that ranks 26th in the league in run defense according to those DVOA analytics. The Packers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philadelphia has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Philadelphia returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Eagles. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers managed to generate just 271 yards against the Titans last week. The struggling Green Bay offense has not scored more than 17 points in three of their last four games — and they have not scored more than 22 points in six of their last seven games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has conceded that he is playing with a broken thumb — but while that may explain how his once immaculate delivery has devolved into a wrist flick motion, his problems go way beyond this season. Even a broken thumb does not explain his bad decision-making — and he continues to struggle to develop chemistry with his wide receiving corps in the Brave New World without Davante Adams. I do not understand why this team simply does not run the ball more (although the deteriorating offensive line has not always made that easy — but they abandon the run too quickly: as Michigan demonstrated yesterday versus Ohio State, sometimes the ground game does not emerge until the second half). After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed Tennessee to generate 6.69 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after giving up 6.69 YPP in their last contest. They go on the road where they are only scoring 15.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played all 3 games on the road as an underdog this season Under the Total. Philadelphia has held five of their last six opponents to under 20 points. The Colts gained only 284 total yards against them last week. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philly has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enduring a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. The Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. But this Philly defense remains elite and is now bolstered on the interior of their defensive line with the acquisitions of Ndamukong Suh and Lineal Joseph. They hold their guests to 18.0 PPG and 285.6 total YPG when playing at home. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). THE SITUATION: UNLV (4-7) lost for the sixth time in a row after a 31-25 upset loss at Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Nevada (2-9) has lost nine games in a row after a 41-14 loss to Fresno State as a 22-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: UNLV got caught traveling away from the mainland to play in Honolulu last week. They outgained the Rainbow Warriors by a 427 to 369 margin in yards in that game but still lost the game. The Rebels did get a good game out of quarterback Doug Brumfield who completed 23 of 37 passes for 288 yards while adding 55 more yards on the ground. UNLV has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rebels are a better team than their record indicates. Brumfield missed two games this season due to injury — and they averaged just 7.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. But when Brumfield is healthy and under center, they are scoring 30.0 PPG. They lost all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They played tough against quality competition a 4-point loss to San Diego State, a 7-point loss to Fresno State, and a 6-point loss at California. They also scored 21 points on the road in South Bend against Notre Dame. Returning home to Allegiant Stadium on the Las Vegas strip, UNLV is scoring 35.6 PPG and generating 411.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Nevada started the season with two straight wins — but they are reeling now after getting scoring only 17 combined points and giving up 82 points to Boise State and Fresno State in their last two contests. Their average losing margin in their nine-game losing streak has been by three touchdowns. They lost to Incarnate Word out of the FCS by 14 points. At this point of the season, it appears that the Wolf Pack are low on morale. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Nevada gave up 524 yards last week to the Bulldogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Nate Cox is completing only 51% of his passes and averaging just 5.7 yards-per-attempt. They go back on the road where they are gaining only 244.0 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV will be motivated to end their season on a high note while avenging a 51-20 loss at Nevada to their in-state rival last week. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-1) has won two games in a row after their 40-10 win against Miami (FL) as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. South Carolina (7-4) comes off their 63-38 upset win against Tennessee as a 23.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks come off their Super Bowl as they rebounded from a 38-6 shellacking to Florida by shocking a Volunteers team that was still dreaming of a possible College Playoff berth before getting creamed by 25 points. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler had thrown only eight touchdown passes all season before tossing six last week — but I suspect that speaks more about the state of the wretched Tennessee pass defense than it does about a sudden jump in quality in the Gamecocks passing attack. Rattler completed 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home against an SEC rival. And in their last 11 games after a point spread victory, they are then 1-9-1 ATS. They go back on the road where are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 492.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to good rushing attacks — they rank 128th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 121st in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Led by running back Will Shipley, Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that ranks 20th in the FBS in Line Yards. After suffering their lone loss of the season to Notre Dame, the Tigers have scored 71 combined points in their last two games while averaging 443 YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 50 of their last 76 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Clemson defense remains stout as always — they held the Hurricanes to just 98 yards last week. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate while ranking 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. They also rank 4th in Havoc Rate — and South Carolina ranks 128th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed. The Tigers stay at home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +18.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +137.0 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson needs to put up a big number for style points with the playoff committee that is not enamored with them right now — and they need to have their offense clicking before playing the suspect North Carolina defense in the ACC Championship Game next week. The Tigers’ playoff chances remain undervalued since with their strong possibility of only having one loss by the end of next week. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in November. The Gamecocks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Clemson. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (117) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (118). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (4-7) had their two-game winning streak end in a 12-10 upset loss at home against Western Michigan as a 9.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Eastern Michigan (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 31-24 upset victory at Kent State as a 7.5-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Eagles are bowl eligible with seven victories — but they cannot win the Mid-American Conference West Division since they trail Toledo by one game with the Rockets controlling the tie-breaker after beating Eastern Michigan earlier in the season. So while they would love to beat one of their in-state rivals that handed them a 31-10 loss last season, the urgency level is not extreme. Frankly, the Eagles have been overachieving all season after benefitting from winning five of their six games decided by one scoring possession — and they have pulled off four upset wins this year. They are getting outscored on the year — and they are getting outgained by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after an upset victory — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 11 games when playing with eight or more days between games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. They return home to Ypsilanti where they are just 2-3 while getting outscored by -7.2 net Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -104.0 net YPG. Eastern Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games played on a Friday. Central Michigan lost their (realistic) chances to qualify for a bowl last week in their upset loss to the Broncos. That game was a mess — starting with a power outage that delayed the game to the Chippewas committing too many penalties and enduring a -2 net turnover margin. There remains a chance that earning their fifth win could set up the possibility of securing a bowl bid despite their losing record, but the probability of that is low. This game is likely the de-facto bowl game for head coach Jim McElwain’s team after a 9-4 campaign with a bowl victory against Washington State last season. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to a MAC rival. And while they gave up 255 rushing yards to Western Michigan last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. McElwain has made a change at quarterback by not relying on sophomore Daniel Richardson who is a pocket passer. Instead, he has been giving snaps to two redshirt freshmen dual-threat quarterbacks, Bert Emanuel, Jr., and Jade Bauer. Emanuel, Jr. is averaging 140 rushing YPG himself — and the Chippewas have won all four of their games when they gain at least 160 yards on the ground. Eastern Michigan allows 159 rushing YPG — and they have given up 160 or more yards on the ground in five of their games this year. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road in the second half of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in November. The Chippewas have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Friday.

FINAL TAKE: Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with the Eagles — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Central Michigan Chippewas (117) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (109) and the Minnesota Vikings (110). THE SITUATION: New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO UNDER THE TOTAL: Minnesota only gained 183 total yards against the Cowboys last week. The Vikings rank just 19th in the league on offense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game with a 321.7 total Yards-Per-Game average in their last three games. Minnesota has played 26 of their last 38 games at home Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 5 straight Unders when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. New England has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders when playing on the road after winning at least two games in a row. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing 150 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Patriots have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (109) and the Minnesota Vikings (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.