At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had their worst shooting game in 35 contests in Game One of this series by making just 40.5% of their shots. Rather than tightening things up, the Bucks were flat — particularly on defense — in Game Two against a team they had beaten in all five of their meetings this season. It is not uncommon for reigning NBA champions to become complacent. But now after that embarrassing result at home and now the series-ending injury to Khris Middleton, Milwaukee has lost the luxury of thinking they can take things for granted. The loss of Middleton is tough — but head coach Mike Budenholzer has credible options to turn to in Bobby Ports, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton. Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez remain as core pieces to this championship team. And the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring 30 Points-Per-Game in this series on 53.8% shooting while averaging 17 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Led by Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee should play their best game of the series tonight with this new sense of urgency. As it is, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored. This veteran team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win against a Central Division rival. Now the Bulls return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 72 home games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog this season. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against the Bulls in Chicago. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss where they were at least a 7-point favorite. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (571) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (50-34) looks to rebound from their 110-104 upset loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (53-31) has won five of their last six games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah allowed the Mavericks to make 47.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Jazz have still held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage which has resulted in them giving up 99.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The extra day of rest should help Utah as they are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they have a 29-12 record with a net point differential of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. The Jazz are a scoring juggernaut at home where they make 48.0% of their shots and 36.4% of their 3-pointers which generates 116.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when playing for the second time in five days. Utah is also 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games on their home court. The Jazz do have a matchup problem on defense with the Mavericks’ small-ball lineup with five outside shooters since Rudy Gobert is not an effective perimeter defender. But the flip side of this coin is that Utah is dominating the glass in this series. Utah has won the rebounding battle by at least 19 boards in three straight games after out-rebounding Dallas by a 50-31 margin on Monday. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 57 games after out-rebounding three straight opponents by at least 10 boards. Luka Doncic has been upgraded to questionable to play tonight with his calf injury — but the reports this afternoon remained pessimistic that he would play. Even if Doncic plays, how effective he will be able to be with an injured calf remains a significant question. Without Doncic on Monday, the Mavericks stepped up to nail 22 of their 47 shots from behind the arc. Maxi Kleber made 8 of his 11 shots from 3-point range — despite making only 18% of his 3-pointers scene the All-Star break. Dallas makes only 34.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road so they are not likely to come close to replicating that performance. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season on the road with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. The Mavericks have also fueled to cover the point spread 3 of their last 4 playoff games when the series was tied.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (570) plus the point(s) versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (48-37) looks to bounce back from their 124-96 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Memphis (57-27) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota only made 39.5% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 27 games. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road by double-digits. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Memphis shot 47.8% from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 25 road games when playing for not more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Memphis is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road. They are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 20* NBA Memphis-Minnesota TNT Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (570) plus the point(s) versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (566) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (565) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-31) has won four of their last five games after their 93-86 victory as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (46-37) has lost five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee beat the Bulls by 7 points despite only making 40.5% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games. They only made 18.9% of their shots from behind the arc after the first quarter which is almost 50% below their 36.5% clip from 3-point range for the season. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games when leading in the series. Chicago played their best defensive game in their last 26 contests by holding Milwaukee to 40.5% shooting — but defense was a big problem for this team after injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. The Bulls allowed their opponents to score 117.9 points per 100 possessions which was the sixth-worst mark in the league. Chicago does have Caruso back — but they miss Ball. The Bulls also allow their opponents to make 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the regular season which was the worst mark in the NBA. Chicago double-teamed Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game One — but the Bucks did not punish them by nailing their 3s. Don’t be surprised if the Bucks respond to double-teams on the Greek Freak by scorching the nets from distance tonight. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has now lost 17 of their 18 games against the Bucks in the Antetokounmpo era — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Milwaukee. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Milwaukee Bucks (566) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (565). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-36) has lost three straight games after losing on the road to the 76ers by a 112-97 score as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (53-31) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: It may look tough to back Toronto after losing the first two games of this series by 20 and 15 points. Injuries have played a role. Scottie Barnes is still listed as doubtful tonight with his ankle injury but Gary Trent, Jr. should play after playing 10 minutes on Monday. He was not effective but the two additional days of fluids should help him play better tonight after a case of the flu. The Raptors still lack the size to deal with Joel Embiid with Barnes out — but in head coach Nick Nurse, I trust, to get this team playing better back on their home court. Toronto has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. Toronto has not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a three-game losing streak. The Sixers have made 51.2% and 52.2% of their shots in this series — but the Raptors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to nail at least 50% of their shots. Back at home, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. And while the 76ers have won their last four games by at least 12 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. Philly held the Raptors to just 42.7% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But now this team goes back on the road where they have not been as effective. They are not likely to continue a 32 to 17.5 free throw attempt average as they have enjoyed in the first two games in Philadelphia. The Sixers will probably see fewer of their 3-pointers fall in Toronto as well — while they are nailing a red-hot 49% of their shots from behind the arc in this series, they should come closer to their 36.7% shooting percentage from 3-point range moving forward. Philly will not have Matisse Thybulle tonight since he is not vaccinated against COVID which precludes him from traveling to Canada. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Toronto against the Raptors. 25* NBA Round One Eastern Conference Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (553) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (554) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-47) looks to rebound from their 110-99 loss on the road to the Suns in the opening game of this series on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Phoenix (65-18) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans was perhaps due for a clunker after surviving the Play-In Tournament last week. They only made 37.9% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 73 games. They missed 45 of their 72 shots from inside the arc. But this remains a team better than their record after starting the season by losing 13 of their first 14 games. The Pelicans slowly improved under rookie head coach Willie Green — and they were transformed after acquiring C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. Even after Sunday, New Orleans has a 14-6 record when McCollum and Brandon Ingram are healthy and on the court together. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 games when playing their third game on the road in the last five days. There were two encouraging developments for New Orleans Sunday night. First, they dominated the boards against the Suns — they outrebounded them by a 55 to 35 margin with 25 second-chance opportunities on the offensive end of the court. New Orleans has out-rebounded their three postseason opponents by at least nine rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting out-rebounding their last three opponents by at least five rebounds. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on the road. Phoenix is great — but they will be quite content to win this game by one point. The question is whether or not they will cover the 10 or so points they are being asked to lay. Despite racing out to a 53-34 halftime lead and despite nailing 53.8% of their shots — the best shooting effort in their last six games, they only won Game One by 11 points. And that brings up the second encouraging aspect from Sunday night’s game: despite such a slow start and overall underwhelming effort, New Orleans was still around in the game before the Suns pulled away to cover the point spread late. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 6 games when favored, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 60 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (553) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-27) has lost four of their last five games after their 130-117 upset loss to the Timberwolves in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Minnesota (48-36) has won five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis’ lack of playoff experience may have caught up with them in their opening game in the playoffs this postseason against a Timberwolves team that got through the Play-In Tournament. But the Grizzlies remain a talented and deep team that was just one of two teams in the NBA to post a top-six ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings. They have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots — and they missed 20 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Saturday. Memphis locked up the second seed before the regular season ended — and now it is the time for them to ramp up their intensity again under head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies have Ja Morant back — and Jenkins is one of the best young coaches in the game. They should respond with a strong effort to even this series at 1-1. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 51 games after a loss by double-digits. They still have a 30-11 record on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Minnesota got what they needed with the victory in Game One to seize home-court advantage in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. I appreciate that Minnesota is better than their record after enduring a regular-season dealing with injuries and COVID issues. But they too are inexperienced in the postseason. Don’t be surprised if their effort is underwhelming tonight. As it is, the T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games in Memphis. 25* NBA-TV Game of the Year is on the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (531) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should have a big edge in terms of energy tonight with the week off — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest between games. And while the Suns have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. After reaching the NBA Finals last year before losing to Milwaukee, Phoenix has covered the point in 13 of their last 18 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Orleans has won four of their last six games after their two victories this week in the Play-In Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Pelicans were favored and covered the point spread in both their Play-In games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two straight games when favored. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Suns. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (532) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (530) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (529) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-31) had their three-game winning streak snapped on the final day of the regular season last Sunday in a 133-115 loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point underdog. Chicago (46-36) ended a four-game losing streak with a 124-120 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee rested their starters against the Cleveland in a soft-tank job to drop back to the third seed — and avoid the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the playoffs. The reigning NBA champions should be rested and ready for this contest. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Milwaukee is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Chicago may be due for a letdown because they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a poking spread victory. The Bulls started the season hot with a 27-11 record. Injuries and the cooling-off of DeMar DeRozan after a red hot start in a Bulls’ uniform contributed to the team only 19-25 the rest of the way — including an 8-15 mark since the All-Star break. Chicago does have Alex Caruso back after he missed much of the second half of the season to injury — but while he helps their cause on defense, they are still without Lonzo Ball who played an important role in slowing down their opponents before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bulls rank 25th in the NBA since the All-Star break by allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions. They allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.5% of their shots last week which was the fifth time in their last six games that they have allowed an opponent to nail at least 50% of their shots from the field. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has dominated Chicago in the Giannis Antetokounmpo era with just one loss back in December of 2017 in their last 17 clashes. The average margin of victory for the Bucks this season in their four victories against the Bulls was +14.7 points — and they won their last two games against them by +24.5 PPG. 20* NBA Chicago-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (530) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (528) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (527) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-29) had their six-game winning streak snapped on the last day of the regular season last Sunday in a 125-111 upset loss at Orlando as a 7-point favorite. Atlanta (45-39) claimed the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs with their 107-101 win at Cleveland as a 2-point favorite in their Play-In game on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami is rested and fully healthy again with Bam Adebayo off the COVID list and P.J. Tucker recovered from the calf injury that kept him out of the final regular-season games. The Heat have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And while their loss to the Magic did not impact their playoff position (and they rested key players), they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Miami hosts this game where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Miami is usually a reliable favorite. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games in the playoffs when laying the points. Atlanta had to survive two must-win games in the Play-In Tournament this week — so they may be ripe for an emotional letdown after surviving that two-game gauntlet. As it is, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up victory. If there was a dark cloud in their win on the road against the Cavaliers on Friday, it was that Clint Capela suffered a knee injury that will keep him out this afternoon. With John Collins still out with a foot injury, Atlanta is very thin upfront. They are also without a spark-plug scorer off the bench in Lou Williams. While the Hawks have a 28-14 record at home, now they go back on the road where they are just 17-25. They score -3.0 PPG away from home versus their season average while shooting 45.9% from the field which is down from their 47.1% mark overall. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Miami to play the Heat. 20* NBA Atlanta-Miami TNT Special with the Miami Heat (528) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (524) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (523) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (53-29) enters the postseason on a five-game winning streak after their 128-107 victory at New Orleans as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (48-34) has lost two of their last three games after a 146-141 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6-point favorite to end the regular season on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State expects Stephen Curry to rejoin the team tonight after he missed time with his foot injury. The Warriors were outscoring their opponents by 10 Points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court. He is scoring 25.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 6.3 Assists-Per-Game and 5.2 Rebounds-Per-Game. Remember, when Curry and Draymond Green were both healthy at the beginning of the season, the Golden State raced out to an 18-2 start — and they had the best record in the NBA on January 3rd. Injuries then hit this team with Curry and Green missing extended time — and they went 10-20 from February to March. But Klay Thompson has returned to the court and looked pretty good on April 2nd when he nailed 14 of 28 shots en route to 36 points against Utah. This will be the first time that the Big Three of Curry, Thompson, and Green will be playing together in the postseason in three years. Head coach Steve Kerr’s team has also seen the emergence of Jordan Poole with the former Michigan standout scoring 25.8 PPG with 6.2 Assists-Per-Game and 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game while nailing 37.4% of his shots from behind the arc since Curry went down with his injury in March. The Warriors should be fresh with the week off — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Golden State has also covered the points spread in 29 of their last 41 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Denver held the Lakers to just 46.8% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Nuggets have still allowed their opponents to score 118.1 points per 100 possessions in the last two weeks to end the regular season. Defense is a weakness of this team — they rank 19th in the NBA since the All-Star break by allowing their opponents to score 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Nikola Jokic is likely to win his second-straight Most Valuable Player award later this year — but the Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still on the shelf with injuries. This will be the first time that Nokic will battle against Green this season who did not play in the four regular-season meetings due to injury. In 18 career games defending Nokic, Green has held the superstar to just 15.7 PPG on 47.9% shooting from the field. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Golden State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 20* NBA Denver-Golden State ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (524) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-26) enters the playoffs having lost three of their last four games after their 139-110 loss to Boston as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (47-36) has won four of their last six games after their 109-104 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves orchestrated a dramatic comeback by rallying from a six-point deficit entering the fourth quarter by outscoring the Clippers by a 31-20 margin despite playing most of that final 12 minutes with Karl Anthony-Towns. After the game, Patrick Beverley partied like it was 1999 in front of the home fans after sticking it to his former team. Anthony Edwards scored 30 points and D’Angelo Russell added 29 points. After that accomplishment, I am expecting a big emotional letdown with this team now in the official playoffs. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a victory by six points or less. The Timberwolves are a tough out at home where they have a 27-15 record. But on the road, Minnesota is just 20-21 while allowing their opponents to make 48.4% of their shots. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, they may be without Taurean Prince for this game who is questionable with a knee injury. The former Baylor star scored 10.5 Points-Per-Game while averaging more than 20 minutes per game off the bench since the All-Star break. Memphis has rested all week licking their chops for their opponent to survive the Play-In Tournament — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They rested their starters last Sunday in a game where they only made 38.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. But the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. Memphis has been dominant at home with a 30-11 record — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 41 games. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team has Ja Morant back in the mix after he missed extended time in the second half of the season. Memphis is real good — only they and Phoenix finished the regular season ranked in the top-six and Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 119-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite on February 24th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games in Memphis. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (511) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (512). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (37-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 113-103 win against San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite in their first play-in game on Wednesday. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their five-game winning streak end with a 109-104 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog in their first play-in game on Wednesday. The winner of this game plays at Phoenix in Game One of the Western Conference Quarterfinals on Sunday.

UPDATE: I released this play before the news this afternoon that Paul George is out for tonight with COVID. Obviously, if you are already down with New Orleans getting 3-4 points, this is fortuitous news. I still consider this a 10* play on the Pelicans even as a small road favorite against a Clippers team without George. I do not think New Orleans laying points against the Clippers without George is a stronger play (so do not recommend upgrading the investment).

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch the eighth seed in the Western Conference and the right to host the first play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer scored 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots in the regular season for his new team— and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. Against the Spurs, McCollum led the way with 32 points on 12 of 23 shooting while adding 7 assists and 6 rebounds. He offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 16 games together this season, they now won ten of those contests. Ingram scored 27 points on Wednesday. The Pelicans will be a tough out in this game even playing at Crytpo.com Arena. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles has Paul George back — but he is being asked to carry this team with Kawhi Leonard. We got a glimpse of the old self-proclaimed “Playoff P” on Wednesday with the Clippers getting outscored by a 31-20 margin to blow their 84-78 lead after the third quarter — and that all occurred despite Karl-Anthony Towns fouling out early in the final quarter. Los Angeles may win this game — but George was not dominant in clutch time against the Timberwolves. The Clippers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest. They host this play-in game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams by a 119-100 score — but the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 58 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (511) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-39) has lost four of their last five games after their 115-108 loss at Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog in their first Play-In game on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-39) won their eighth game in their last ten games with a 132-103 victory against Charlotte as a 5-point favorite in their first Play-In game on Wednesday. The winner of this game seizes the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and plays at Miami on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed the Nets to make 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst defensive mark in their last 11 games. But after digging themselves a hole early with a 20-point deficit after the first quarter, the Cavs did keep fighting to stay competitive and cover the point spread. Darius Garland was outstanding as he nailed 13 of his 24 shots en route to 34 points. Cleveland is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread win. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have dropped six of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Returning home will help this team where they were 25-16 this season (as opposed to their 19-23 record on the road). They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games as an underdog. Cleveland also may get Jarrett Allen back for this game — and that would be a big shot in the arm for this team. The Cavaliers already got rookie big man Evan Mobley back earlier this week — and if they can also get Allen back on the court after missing 19 games from a finger injury, they have their dynamic duo in the middle which makes them a very difficult team to score against. With Allen on the court, Cleveland allows -3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. He has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game — and he clearly wants to play given that the Cavs’ season could end tonight with a loss. Even if Allen does not play, Cleveland should stay competitive in this game with a real chance to extend their season. Having a veteran like Rajon Rondo playing alongside Garland should help in this one-and-done playoff game. Atlanta comes off one of their best games of the season. They held the Hornets to just 37.8% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 35 games. They also nailed 52.1% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage in their last seven contests. Trae Young scored 24 points but only on 8 of 24 shooting. Five other players scoring in double figures helped compensate for Young missing seven of his eight shots from behind the arc. Interestingly, the deeper analytics projected that the Hawks would typically only win that game against the Hornets by six points based on the expected points from the quality of shots taken. A letdown looks likely for this team — and this is a group not playing at full strength who has not been nearly as effective on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta thrives at home where they have a 28-14 record — but they are just 16-25 on the road. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when favored by up to six points. Injuries continue to keep this team undermanned. Lou Williams is out and now Bogan Bogdanovich is questionable with an ankle. But it is the likely absence of big man John Collins for the 18th straight game that looms most ominous in this matchup. Atlanta needs his size against Mobley and potentially Allen in the middle. The Hawks have managed to out-rebound their last three opponents by at least ten boards after winning the rebounding battle against the Hornets by a 54-41 margin. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after out-rebounding their last three opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have won the last three meetings between these two teams — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with triple revenge. The recent success against Cleveland — and their easy one on Wednesday — may work against this Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (36-46) enters this game coming off two straight losses after a 128-107 loss to Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Antonio (34-48) has lost three in a row after their 130-120 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Friday to determine the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch hosting this play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer is scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots — and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. McCollum offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 15 games together this season, they won nine of those contests. Ingram was dealing with a hamstring injury last week but he has been upgraded to probable alongside Jonas Valuncianas, Devonte Graham, and Herbert Jones who should all be good to go. Since the All-Star break, New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in Net Rating while ranking 10th in the league with their Offensive Rating and ninth with their Defensive Rating. They did allow the Warriors to make 60.5% of their shots on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. Additionally, the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Spurs are solid but unspectacular. They rank 17th in Net Rating for the season with an Offensive Rating that is 17th in the NBA and a Defensive Rating that is 16th. Since the All-Star break, San Antonio ranks 19th in Net Rating, placing 17th still in Offensive Rating and 16th in Defensive Rating. Their .414 winning percentage would not have been good enough to reach the Play-In Tournament last season, but they were the beneficiaries of the second-half collapses by the Lakers and Trail Blazers. Future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich has gotten the most out of his roster. But New Orleans holds a significant talent edge now that they have McCollum playing alongside Ingram. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio allows their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 46% of their shots. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (43-39) has won three straight games after their 124-108 win against Washington as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (43-39) has won seven of their last nine contests with their 130-114 victory at Houston as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game plays at Cleveland on Friday to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte enters the playoffs playing perhaps their best basketball of the season. In their last 15 games, they rank second in the NBA in Net Rating. The emergence of P.J. Washington has given them an alternative strong lineup to make up for Gordon Hayward once again being on the shelf with an injury. The Hornets have closed out the regular season by winning 13 of their last 18 games despite Hayward being out with his injury. Charlotte is an elite scoring team that ranks sixth in the NBA by averaging 114.8 points per 100 minutes (non-garbage time) — and they have risen to second in the league in Offensive Rating in their last 15 games. Their 54.8% effective field goal percentage and their 37.0% mark from behind the arc both rank seventh in the league. The Hawks’ perimeter defense can be shaky — they rank 25th in the NBA by allowing their opponents to make 36.4% of their 3-pointers and they have allowed their opponents to nail 36.9% of these shots since the All-Star break. The Hornets have made at least 52.2% of their shots in each of their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home against a Southeast Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing their second game in five days. They have been reliable on the road where they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Charlotte is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games as an underdog. Atlanta made 51.7% of their shots on Sunday against the Rockets which was the best offensive effort in their last six games. But the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win on the road. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with two days of rest. The Hawks are not at 100% for this game with John Collins still out with a foot injury — and Lou Williams has been declared out for tonight with a sore back. Even without Collins, Atlanta has out-rebounded their last two opponents by 16 and 10 boards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 rebounds.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte qualified for the Play-In Tournament last year where they got crushed by Indiana by 27 points. They should learn from that experience — and they won ten more games this season. Trae Young may carry the Hawks to the victory — but with the Hornets having three leaders on the court in LeMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier, they should keep this game close (if they don’t pull the upset). 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (502). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-38) snapped a three-game losing streak to conclude their regular season with a 133-115 victory against Milwaukee as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Brooklyn (44-38) has won four in a row after their 134-126 victory against Indiana as a 16.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Granted, Brooklyn has a 36-19 record with a healthy Kevin Durant — that is a 53-win pace which would have tied them with Miami for the top record in the Eastern Conference. And the Nets are 11-6 straight-up this season when Durant is playing with Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn is better than their record — and they have even stepped up their play on defense in the last two weeks where they rank 11th in Defensive Rating. But the most consistent thing about this team all season has been their inability to cover spreads. The market is overrated this team as they continue to wait for them to simply flip the switch — and this dynamic has not changed with Durant and Irving both available to play. The Nets are just 7-10 ATS in the 17 games these two stars have played together. At home in the Barclays Center, Brooklyn is an ugly 6-26-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 26 home games when favored. Irving did miss most of those games given his refusal to get a COVID vaccine — but since New York City lifted the vaccine requirement for city employees, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 home games with Irving on the court rather than smirking from the stands where the vaccine requirement did not extend. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after a point spread loss. This is a flawed roster after their Big Two with Ben Simmons and Joe Harris still our for this game. Cleveland is not the same team as they were earlier in the season given the injuries to Collin Sexton and Jarrett Allen. They have lost 17 of their last 26 games since the Allen injury who plays a crucial role in their defense. But this team still has two promising young players in Darius Garland and rookie Evan Mobley — and they have a rising head coach in J.B. Bickerstaff. The question is not “will the Cavaliers win this game?”, it is “will they keep it in single digits?” — and they are playing with house money with everyone discounting their chances. Even with a loss, Cleveland gets to host the Atlanta-Charlotte winner in the second Play-In game which gives them a back door to continue their postseason. They beat a Bucks team that was resting their starters — but the Cavaliers have still covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a win by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Having a healthy Mobley again who missed time in the last few weeks helps the Cleveland cause on defense. While Allen is important, the Cavaliers have a Defensive Rating of 108.9 with him off the court — and that would rank 5th best in the NBA. Brooklyn’s offense is elite with Durant and Irving — but they have not been quite as prolific against top-ten defenses.

FINAL TAKE: The lone Nets point spread cover at home with Irving playing was against this Cleveland team in a 118-107 victory as an 8-point favorite on April 8th. But Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Cleveland-Brooklyn TNT Special with the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (557) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (558). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-52) has lost three straight games after their 117-98 loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as an 11.5-point underdog yesterday. Phoenix (64-17) has won two of their last three contests after a 110-105 upset win at Utah as a 3-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix has the number one seed in the NBA playoffs locked up — so they have nothing to play for tonight. Head coach Monty Williams has confirmed that he is resting his key players — so Chris Paul, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Jae Crowder, and Cameron Payne are not playing tonight. We played the Suns earlier this week under similar circumstances — but we were getting the points in that one. Phoenix as a double-digit favorite playing the backups is too much to ask — even against the Kings. As it is, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Sacramento had been playing pretty well for head coach Alvin Gentry playing out the string before this recent three-game slide. The Kings are now locked with the seventh-worst record in the league — so they might as well play hard tonight. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games playing without a day of rest. Gentry has been using these games in the final few weeks of the season to get as much playing time to their rookie Davion Mitchell who has validated their investment in a first-round pick in him. The Kings are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. They have not covered the point spread in three straight games while allowing each of these opponents to make at least 48.8% of their shots. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last three opponents to shoot at least 47% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings will have motivation to avenge a 127-124 loss at home to Phoenix on March 20th. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Suns. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (557) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (589) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (590). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-16) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 121-110 victory at home against the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Los Angeles (39-40) has won three of their last four games after their 119-100 victory against New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a small value play on Phoenix as I think the market has overvalued the impact of the Suns’ potentially resting their starters tonight. The logic is this: since Phoenix has locked up the best record and top seed in the NBA, there is no reason for head coach Monty Williams to play his best players on the back end of games in back-to-back days. Maybe … probably. Although Williams rested his starters on Sunday in what ended up being a 117-96 loss at Oklahoma City as a 14.5-point favorite. Williams does not want his team to go on complete autopilot since flipping the switch may be easier said than done. And there was speculation that the starters would not play last night — but they did. I can see Williams playing Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton for 25 or so minutes to keep them in rhythm against playoff-caliber competition. And I am comfortable with the B team led by Aaron Gordon and Bismack Biyombo — after opening as a 3-point road favorite, the market pushing the line to the Suns getting 6 or so points looks like an overreaction to me. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when getting the points. The thing is about the Clippers is that they have nothing to play for either — they are locked in the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoffs. They are just waiting to see who they will face in the Play-In Tournament. There is a desire to get Paul George minutes after being injured and on the shelf for months — but that does not mean it is likely he logs in 40 minutes tonight. They are also likely to still be without Norman Powell who is doubtful with an injury. Los Angeles held the Pelicans to just 40.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games when playing with two days of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when playing their second game in five days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (589) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (590). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: David McCormack may have played the best game of his career on Saturday by making 10 of 12 shots in the field en route to his 25 points. He dominated the Wildcats inside and took full advantage of their lack of size. But McCormack has been enigmatic his entire career — he has a high ceiling but his biggest challenge has been maintaining consistency from game to game. McCormack is emblematic of this entire Kansas team: when they are playing at their best, they look unbeatable. But too often this Jayhawks team gets in their own way as they seem to lose focus. After trailing Miami (FL) 35-29 at half-time in their Elite Eight, Kansas has probably their best 60 consecutive minutes all season. But, frankly, I will pay to see if they can nail 13 of 24 (54%) of their 3-pointers as they did against Villanova. The Jayhawks had only made 33% of their shots from behind the arc in their 11 previous games on a neutral court before Saturday. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after nailing at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. This Jayhawks team was flat in the first half against the Hurricanes last weekend. They struggled against an injured Creighton team playing without their best two players. They let Providence back in their Round of 32 game despite the Friars not being able to hit the side of a barn for most of that contest.

Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into Saturday in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Duke game). What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on Saturday who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: I will not be surprised if Kansas does not play as well as they did on Saturday. But even if they play at the same high level as they did in the second half against Miami (FL) and Villanova, I still expect North Carolina to be very competitive. The Jayhawks will not be able to dominate the offensive boards like they did the Wildcats by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots. North Carolina ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.6% of their missed shots. The Tar Heels are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog.  I think North Carolina wins straight-up — but I do not recommend “sprinkling” (such a lame phrasing for throwing one’s money away) any money on them with the money-line. Why forego the insurance that is the 4 or so points they are getting in this game? If you want to make more money, then parlay the Tar Heels (with the points) with my totals play for this game. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (552) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (551). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-49) has won two straight games and four out of their last five after their 122-117 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Friday. Golden State (49-29) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 111-107 upset victory against Utah as a 2-point underdog yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento is closer to qualifying for the play-in game than they are to being one of the bottom-four teams in the league with more ping pong balls for the June NBA draft. They are only 3 1/2 games behind San Antonio for tenth place in the Western Conference while being 6 1/2 games above Oklahoma City in the bottom four. This team is playing hard for head coach Alvin Gentry — even without the injured De’Aaron Fox and Damontas Sabonis. Fox being out alongside the trading of Tyrese Halliburton to Indiana in the Sabonis deal has opened the for rookie Davion Mitchell to play plenty of minutes at guard for the Kings. The former Baylor star and first-round draft pick has responded by scoring 21.8 Points-Per-Game and dishing out 8.7 Assists-Per-Game. Now after completing a five-game road trip, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Sacramento is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Golden State made 47.6% of their shots against the Jazz which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after losing two of their last three games. Golden State remains without Steph Curry who is out with a knee injury. The Warriors score 114.9 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court while outscoring their opponents by +10.9 points per 100 possessions — but without Curry on the floor, they only score 104.9 points per 100 possessions while getting outscored by -3.7 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread 4 straight games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games when favored by up to six points. Additionally, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has won the last four meetings between these two teams after their 136-114 win against the Kings on February 3rd. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 meetings with the Kings — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Sacramento. The Kings have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (552) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considers the Tar Heels the best team in the nation in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also rank North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th. What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against the Peacocks. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. We have backed Duke in their last two wins (and covers) against Arkansas and Texas Tech — but I hate this spot for them. I suspect this the game that the enormous pressure this young team has in carrying the legacy of head coach Mike Krzyzewski in his final games before retirement. I heard some pundits comment that the pressure was higher in their final home game at Cameroon Indoor against this Tar Heels team with all the alumni in the house. While I appreciate there was pressure then, to suggest that a regular-season game on the second Saturday in March presented more pressure than a Final Four is ludicrous. And, by the way, this team did not handle that pressure very well in that 94-81 loss. The team trends point to this being a letdown spot for Duke. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have scored at least 78 points in each of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. The Blue Devils have some issues. They only rank 45th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they fall slightly to 51st in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. It is their half-court defense that is the biggest weakness as their opponents have a 47.0% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking just 48th in the nation. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. These teams share more than having campuses within eight miles of each other. The profile of both teams is dynamic offenses with athletes that crash the glass on both ends of the court — and while neither team forces turnovers, they both rank in the top seven in the nation in opponent foul rate. But it is North Carolina that ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.2% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Duke has the revenge angle here from that 13-point loss as an 11-point favorite — but the historical numbers in the NCAA Tournament regarding teams looking to avenge a same-season loss favor the team that won the previous game. Admittedly, that is from a limited sample size over many years — but it suggests that the market might be overvaluing Duke as if the revenge angle means they “really, really” want to win as opposed to just “really” wanting to beat UNC. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss where they were favored by at least seven points — including failing to cover the spread in three of those four opportunities this season. Duke has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home under Coach K. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. All four of Villanova’s other starters are very good — and the team does not miss a beat when Caleb Daniels comes off the bench. Depth is an issue for head coach Jay Wright — but that has been a challenge all year despite dealing with injuries and COVID issues all season. Wright uses a smaller bench by choice, John Wooden-style. Look for the team to rally together for this game and play quite well. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Villanova has held their last two opponents to 55 or fewer points, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 55 points in two straight games. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. The Jayhawks had been listless of many of their NCAA Tournament games against probably the easiest draw of all the four teams in New Orleans this weekend. They do come off the best 20 minutes of basketball they played in the Big Dance when they steamrolled the Hurricanes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Bill Self’s Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament — and the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games in the Big Dance. In Jay Wright, I Trust to at least keep this one a coin flip at the end. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (27-12) has won 11 of their last 12 games with a 72-56 victory against Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Tuesday. Xavier (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 84-77 upset victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Buzz Williams complained loudly about the tragic injustice it was that his Texas A&M team did not get an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament after beating Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the championship game. It’s shame this small private school scarping for money can’t catch a break — especially after losing nine of ten games during a midseason slump. No one is feeling sorry for Texas A&M — and often teams that feel robbed from an at-large bid then fall flat in the NIT. Credit goes to Williams for keeping his team focused as they have beaten all four of their opponents in this tournament by at least 12 points. Now with one game away from taking the title, look for another strong effort from the Aggies. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The calling card for this team is defense — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while rising 10th in the country in that metric over their last ten games. After limiting the Cougars to just 34.5% shooting on Tuesday, they have held their last five opponents to no better than 39.3% field goal percentage. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing at last three straight opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Xavier made 53.1% of their shots in their victory against the Bonnies which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Xavier has faced turmoil all season. After an 11-2 start to their Big East campaign, they lost 11 of their next 17 conference games which cost them a spot in the Big Dance. After beating Cleveland State in the first round of the NIT, the program let head coach Travis Steele. Assistant coach Jonas Hayes took over on an interim basis with the university re-hiring Sean Miller after his tumultuous run at Arizona. The team also lost their fifth-year senior point guard Paul Scruggs to a season-ending injury in their second NIT game against Florida. This leaves the Musketeers short-handed with just a six-man rotation. Scruggs was the team’s second-leading scorer averaging 11.7 Points-Per-Game — and he led the team by dishing out 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. He is critical in protecting the basketball against pressure as well — in that game against the Gators where he got injured, Xavier turned the ball over 18 times representing 24.0% of their possessions. Now they face a Texas A&M team that is eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Aggies’ depth is also a strength as they rank 23rd in the nation in bench minutes with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Williams will be able to throw waves of players and pressure at a Xavier team missing their floor general.

FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year is on the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (39-37) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 113-109 loss to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (34-42) has won four games in a row with their 109-104 upset victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has been playing well — despite that loss to the Nuggets. They have won seven of their last nine games and appear entrenched to at least qualify for the Play-In games for the postseason as they are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the eighth spot by one game. After struggling to replace the injured Gordon Hayward’s contributions, they are getting solid across-the-board play from P.J. Washington. The former Kentucky star is scoring 11.3 Points-Per-Game this month while adding 4.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 3.1 Assists-Per-Game and making 35.4% of his shots from 3-point range. The Hornets are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games — and they had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. Furthermore, Charlotte is 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York is starting to play better now that they have likely buried their shot at making the playoffs. They are 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the tenth spot in the Eastern Conference. In their upset victory against the Bulls, they held Chicago to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games, and tied for the best performance on that end of the court in their last ten contests. But the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four of their last five games. Injuries remain an issue for this team. They are without Cam Reddish, Derrick Rose, and Kemba Walker with the latter put on the shelf because he does not fit head coach Tom Thibodeau’s plans. Nerlens Noel and Quentin Grimes are both out tonight with injuries — and Evan Fournier is questionable for reasons listed as “personal”. This team is going nowhere this year — and taking some days off down the stretch as they softly tank appears likely. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will be motivated to avenge a 121-106 loss at home to the Knicks on March 23rd. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (27-9) has won nine of their last ten games with their 73-66 upset win against UCLA as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Saint Peter’s (22-11) won their tenth game in a row with their 67-64 upset win against Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina was considered a top-15 team in the nation in the preseason — and after a sluggish start to the season, they are peaking at the right time now in March. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning four or five of their last six games. North Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Saint Peter’s has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament despite losing all three games using the expected baskets from the analytics department at Shot Quality. The Peacocks were able to handle the Boilermakers' size — but that may speak more about Purdue than it does them with hindsight. Saint Peter’s is going to have their hands full dealing with Armando Bacot and Brady Manek. Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing their second game in three days. The Peacocks' fortunes have extended to the free-throw line where they ranked 234th in the nation by making 70% of their shots at the charity stripe. In the NCAA Tournament, the Peacocks have made 60 of their 73 shots from the free-throw line. They got to the line 21 times against Purdue where they made 19 of their freebies (90.4%) — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 88% of their free throws in their last game. Getting to the free-throw line is Saint Peter’s game as they rank 17th in the nation in free throw rate — but the Tar Heels do not foul as they rank 8th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. This Peacocks team remains below average on offense with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 216th in the nation. They only make 46% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 314th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions, ranking 298th. Eventually, these characteristics catch up to big underdogs. And while they rank 71st in the nation by pulling down 31.4% of their misses, North Carolina is the second-best defensive rebounding team in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 21.4% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Peter’s will continue to play good defense — but they will need an outlier effort on offense from behind the 3-point line to stay competitive with this surging Tar Heels team. 20* CBB Saint Peter’s-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 66-61 victory against Providence as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (26-10) has won six of their last seven contests with their 70-56 win against Iowa State as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas can be a frustrating team to watch — but they have a significant talent edge in this game which should shine through in the end. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning at least two in a row without covering the point spread as a favorite. Kansas is playing well on the defensive end of the court. They have not allowed a tournament opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots after holding the Friars to just 33.8% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% of their shots. The Jayhawks are a bit better than their metrics suggest now that Remy Martin is healthy again and fully in the mix. He has scored double-digits in five straight games while leading the team with 58 points so far in this tournament. Kansas is efficient on offense as they usually take good shots — they rank fifth in the nation with a 1.27 Points-Per-Possession in Shot Quality. The Jayhawks' big edge in this game is their offensive rebounding. Kansas ranks 35th in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots — and the Hurricanes allow their opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed shots, ranking 271st in the nation. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory by double-digits. They have played three straight Unders — but the Hurricanes have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Miami has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Hurricanes are a potent offensive team that does not turn the ball over while shooting 55.0% inside the arc. They force turnovers on defense which facilitates their transition offense. But this is not a good defensive team in the half-court. Miami ranks 114th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 283rd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They allow their opponents to make 52.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 299th in the country — and this will likely be the source of their demise against the Jayhawks.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (641) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (31-6) won their fifth game in their last six with their 78-73 win against Texas Tech in a pick ‘em on Thursday. Arkansas (28-8) has won four of their last five games with their 74-68 upset win against Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke made a statement by scoring at a 1.16 Points-Per-Possession rate against a Red Raiders team that was ranked number one in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Blue Devils amped up their intensity in the second half by nailing 71% of their shots while not missing a shot from the field in the final seven or so minutes of the game. Peak Duke has as high a ceiling as any team in the country (they did beat Gonzaga earlier in the year). Head coach Mike Krzyzewski demonstrated he still has a trick or two up his sleeve by having his team come out in the second half playing a zone defense. The rotation might have four or five first-round draft picks in the next NBA draft. After shooting 33.1% from behind the arc in the regular season, Paolo Banchero, the potential top-pick in the summer NBA draft has nailed 7 of his 13 (53.8%) of his 3-pointers in this tournament. A.J. Griffin scored 11 points while not showing any after-effects from the ankle injury that kept him out of the game late against Michigan State last weekend. But what has been the difference for this team in this tournament has been the play of point guard Jeremy Roach who Coach K re-inserted into the starting lineup after their loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. Roach scored 15 points on 7 of 11 shooting and added five assists. He is averaging 13.4 PPG in his last seven games while making 9 of his 24 shots from behind the arc. Arkansas may be poised for an emotional letdown after sleighing the Goliath that is Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog. Critical in their win was forcing the Bulldogs into 15 turnovers while holding them to 37.5% shooting. Gonzaga missed 16 of their 21 shots from 3-point range. The Razorbacks were able to slow the Bulldogs down — and then they frustrated them in the half-court. Duke is more effective in the half-court offense. They are not likely to indulge Arkansas in turnovers. The Blue Devils rank 21st in the nation by turning the ball over 15.1% of the time. Against a more-effective turnover-forcing team in the Red Raiders, Duke only turned it over 10 times. Roach only has one game where he turned the ball over four or more times this season. Arkansas also wants to get to the free-throw line as they rank 26th in the nation in getting to the line — and 22.7% of their points come from the charity stripe. But the Blue Devils ran second in the nation in defensive free throw rate. Frankly, the stars were aligning for the Razorbacks on Thursday. Jaylin Williams nailed two shots from behind the arc after making only 17 shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Trey Wade made three of his four shots from distance after making only 12 in the regular season. Arkansas is not built to stay competitive by bombing from 3 — they rank 316th in the nation by making only 30.4% of their 3-pointers. J.D. Notae was given the green light to shoot from anywhere by head coach Eric Musselman — but he only made 9 of his 29 shots while missing 10 of his 12 shots from behind the arc. Notae has not made more than two shots from distance since February 19th.

FINAL TAKE: Duke should not Remy Martin-us (Kansas last night) if they are trying to stay just ahead of the point spread late in the game at the free-throw line. While Martin missed three free throws late in the game against Providence, the Blue Devils have only missed seven of their 47 shots at the charity stripe in this tournament for an 85% clip. Duke has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance. 20* CBB Arkansas-Duke TBS-TV Special with the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (640) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (639) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (29-7) won their eighth straight game with their 63-55 victory against Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Houston (32-5) has won six straight after their 72-60 upset win against Arizona as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a matchup of two similar teams in that they are both as well-coached as any group in college basketball with programs that feature the system over the talent. There are likely not any future NBA All-Stars on the court tonight — but the basketball will remain top quality. With Villanova getting a basket as an underdog, the value lies with Jay Wright’s team. He has overseen two National Championships with this program since 2016. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games in the NCAA Tournament including five of their last six Big Dance contests. They covered the point spread against the Wolverines despite shooting just 37.3% from the field which was their worst effort so far in this tournament. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing their third game in seven days. The Cougars will have difficulty forcing turnovers against this Wildcats small-ball lineup that ranks 28th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. Where Villanova has an edge is at the charity stripe — and not only will their free throws play a role to keep this game close during the game, but it will help in clutch time. The Wildcats are making 82.6% of their freebies which is not only the best mark in the nation but also on pace to break the NCAA record for the highest team free throw percentage in history. They have made 38 of their 44 (86.4%) free throw attempts. The flip-side to the Cougars’ aggressiveness in forcing turnovers is that they get called for fouls — they rank 291st in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. And for all the good things Houston does well, they give away points at the charity stripe as they only make 66.7% of their freebies, ranking 291st in the nation. In their first three games in this tournament, they have made only 37 of their 57 (64.9%) of their free-throw attempts. The Cougars did make 9 of their 20 (45%) shots from behind the arc against Arizona — after only making 6 of 22 (27.3%) of their 3-pointers versus Illinois. Houston is not a great 3-point shooting team as they only make 34.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 115th in the nation. This is another area where Villanova has an edge as they rank 54th in the nation by making 36.0% of their 3-pointers. The Cougars are third in the country in offensive rebounding — they will get second-chance opportunities against the Wildcats. But Houston ranks only a middling 165th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 27.8% of their missed shots — and Villanova is solid in this department by ranking 76th in the country by rebounding 31.1% of their misses. And while the Cougars’ defense is elite, their best work was done on their home court where they led the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Away from home, they fall to 29th in the nation in that defensive metric — and they are 13th in the nation when only evaluating their play on neutral courts.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova may have the best player and leader on the court tonight in Collin Gillespie at point guard. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set no higher than 129.5 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after 15 games in the season against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Houston-Villanova TBS-TV Special with the Villanova Wildcats (640) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (639). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884) in the Quarterfinals of the Basketball Classic. THE SITUATION: Portland (19-14) has won two of their last three games with their 94-73 win against New Orleans as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Southern Utah (22-11) has won four of their last five games with their 82-69 upset win at UTEP as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has the rest advantage with three extra days off than the Thunderbirds — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. This Pilots team has been steadily improving all season under first-year head coach Shantay Legans. The former Eastern Washington coach has one of the youngest rosters in the country — but with a handful of international transfers as well as three important cogs to his Eastern Washington team last year, this team has talent. They also play better away from home as they rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin as opposed to their 151st overall ranking in that metric. Portland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Pilots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah nailed 58.2% of their shots against UTEP which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They also held the Miners to a 37.5% shooting clip which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won four of their last five contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning four of their last five games. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have scored 83 points in their four-point upset win against Kent State in the opening game of this tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while both those games finished Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 home games after playing two straight Overs. Southern Utah ranks 179th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to a ranking of just 208th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 60 home games when favored including seven of their eleven games at home laying points this season. The strength of this team is protecting their defensive glass as they limit their opponents to pulling down only 22.7% of their missed shots, ranking 16th in the nation. But the Pilots sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense as they only rebound 24.0% of their misses, ranking 299th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the Big Sky Conference regular-season title last year — but, in hindsight, that accomplishment looks like a fortunate by-product of the instability from a season played during COVID. Portland is on the rise — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Basketball Classic Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:59 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (637) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (638) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (22-12) advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 54-49 upset win against Wisconsin as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (FL) (25-10) has won five of their last six games with their 79-61 upset win against Auburn as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: In this battle of the Hurricanes' potent scoring attack against the stout defense of Iowa State, I expect the defense will reign supreme. The Cyclones held the Badgers to just 29.8% shooting after holding LSU to 37.0% shooting in their opening-round upset. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Cyclones rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. After forcing 17 turnovers against a Badgers team that is second in the nation in offensive turnover rate, they now rank fourth in the country by forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank eighth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 28.7% shooting from behind the arc. The weakness of this Iowa State team is their scoring — but they do have three players in Izaiah Brockington, Caleb Grill, and Aljaz Kunc all hit at least 35% of their shots from behind the arc. Miami ranks 121st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 304th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 255th in the nation with their opponents nailing 34.9% of their shots from distance. Breaking down those 3-point defensive numbers makes it look worse for the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 337th in the country in catch-and-shoot 3-point defense, 160th in open 3-point defense, and 289th in rim and 3-point defense. Miami did hold Auburn to 30.4% shooting on Sunday but that was the best defensive effort of their season. They also made 48.5% of their shots in what was the best shooting performance in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored on a neutral court — and they have failed to cocker the point spread in 5 straight games in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Iowa State Cyclones (637) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (638). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (632) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (631) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (27-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 72-56 win against Saint Mary’s as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (26-9) has won eight of their last nine games after their 93-86 upset win in overtime against Baylor as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: The biggest question for UCLA regards the status of Jaime Jacquez who injured his ankle late in the game against the Gaels. He did take part in practice on Thursday and the reports are that he will take the court tonight. Even without Jacquez, the Bruins remain a veteran team with all the key pieces back from the group that reached the Final Four last season. This is a balanced team that ranks in the top-14 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UCLA has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams outside the Pac-12. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after pulling off the upset against the reigning National Champions. They made 49.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also held the Bears to 34.6% shooting was tied for the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. And while North Carolina held Marquette to just a 35.6% shooting percentage in the opening round of the Big Dance, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. The Tar heels have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral court — and they have fooled to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court when an underdog of three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. UCLA has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (632) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (631). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (30-6) has won seven straight games after their 79-72 victory against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. Providence (30-6) has won six of their last eight games with their 79-51 win against Richmond as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Providence ranks as the luckiest team in the nation according to the deeper metrics of Ken Pomeroy. They have an 11-2 record in games decided by five points or less. While I do think that winning close games is not purely an embodiment of chance, I passed on both of the Friars’ first two games in the NCAA Tournament. The analytics indicate that Providence was fortunate in both contests to win the game. The Spiders’ bubble was perhaps destined to explode after pulling off four straight upset victories. Richmond missed 13 of 21 free throws and 21 of their 22 shots from behind the arc in the 28-point loss to the Friars. But the Spiders did make 20 of 31 (64.5%) of their shots inside the arc which is a concern when now playing the Jayhawks. Playing Kansas is a significant step up in class after getting a favorable draw against South Dakota State and Richmond in the first two rounds of the Big Dance. Providence has been exposed this season in a number of their losses. Creighton scored 85 points in a 27-point victory against them in the Big East Tournament. Marquette scored 88 points in a 32-point win against them. Villanova scored 89 points against them. Virginia beat them by 18 points. The Friars ranked just seventh in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is not a great matchup for them either. Providence led the Big East in getting to the free-throw line — and they led the conference by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers. But the Jayhawks were second in the Big 12 in defensive free throw rate while leading the conference by holding their opponents to just 27.5% shooting from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 51.9% of their shots again tonight as they did against Richmond which was the best shooting mark in their last 15 games. While they ranked 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 54th in the nation in that offensive metric when playing away from home. Kansas only made 40.9% of their shots in their victory against the Bluejays which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning at least seven games in a row. This Jayhawks team continues to improve on the defensive end of the court. After holding Texas Southern to just 32.8% shooting, they held Creighton to a 35.6% field goal percentage. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. When playing on the road, the Jayhawks rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (634) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (29-7) has won five of their last six games with their 81-71 victory against Texas as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Saint Peter’s (21-11) has won nine games in a row with their 70-60 upset victory against Murray State as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue is playing better on the defensive end of the court as they held the Longhorns to just a 39.7% shooting percentage after holding Yale to a 39.7% field goal percentage in the first round of the Big Dance. The Boilermakers rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are fourth in the country by making 39% of their shots from behind the arc and they rank 13th in the nation by shooting 56% inside the arc. Purdue has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams from outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court when laying 12.5 to 18 points. Saint Peter’s has pulled off two big upsets against good Kentucky and Murray State teams — but the road likely ends here against a Purdue team with huge size in their frontcourt and a potential NBA lottery pick in Jaden Ivey. The Peacocks rank just 224th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions, ranking 310th in the nation. they also rank 348th in putting their opponent on the free-throw line — and that is what did Texas on Sunday with the Boilermakers going to the charity stripe 46 times and gaining a net edge of 24 points against them. And while the calling card of Saint Peter’s is their defense, their ranking of 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops to 59th in the country when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. While the two previous 15 seeds that advanced the Sweet 16 covered the point spread in their losses, that’s not a sample size I put any credence in. 20* CBB Saint Peter’s-Purdue CBS-TV Special with the Purdue Boilermakers (634) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:59 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arizona (33-3) has won eight straight games after their 85-80 win in overtime versus TCU as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (31-5) has won five in a row and 11 of their last 12 with their 68-53 victory against Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Of course, it is true that Houston was underseeded by the NCAA Tournament committee. And not only is head coach Kelvin Sampson one of the best in the business but he has perhaps enjoyed his finest coaching season by recovering from early season injuries to Marcus Passer and Tramon Mark to have his team in the Sweet 16. But the seeding mistakes are corrected by the point spread. And while I know that the Cougars’ efficiency numbers place them as the second-best team in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, this remains a team that is greater than the sum of its part. Credit Sampson for that — but when they face elite competition, Houston tends to hit their head on the ceiling. After reaching the Final Four last season, the Cougars lost by a 78-59 score to a Baylor team loaded with talent. The previous time they played a team ranked in Pomeroy’s top ten was in 2019 in the Sweet 16 of that Big Dance — and they lost 62-58. And while the American Athletic Conference features good teams but not a ton of NBA talent, the lone exception to that situation has been Penny Hardaway’s Memphis squad — and the Tigers handed Houston two of their five losses. Sticking with Pomeroy, the best win the Cougars have this season was on Sunday in their victory against the Illini -- a team with an NBA player in Kofi Cockburn but who has otherwise been inconsistent and disappointing. This Arizona team is not only the most talented group that Houston will have played all season — but they are probably better than that P.J. Washington and Tyler Herro Kentucky team from three years ago who lost in the Elite Eight to Auburn. The Cougars stifled Illinois to just 34.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Sampson out-coached Brad Underwood (and I incorrectly took the Illini to cover). But eventually, coaches cannot outscheme talent — and this Arizona team is seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Also note that while Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that number drops to 33rd in the nation when they play on the road where they allow almost 10 more points per 100 possessions (based on adjusted numbers). And while the Cougars have covered the point spread in five straight games and nine of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games. Arizona only made 45.6% of their shots against the Horned Frogs which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They made only 5 of their 27 shots (18.5%) from behind the arc. Point guard Kerr Kriisa struggled in his return to the court after not playing in their opening-round win against Wright State — he missed nine of his ten shots from behind the arc. But he did play 27 minutes and have a positive +/- number while quarterbacking the team. Furthermore, the Wildcats held TCU to just 35.1% shooting after limiting the Raiders to 34.8% shooting in the opening round of this tournament. Arizona got a scare — but that experience should sharpen them for this showdown. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games (including their last four this season) after not making at least 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last game. TCU dominated Arizona in the offensive glass by pulling down 20 boards — that kept the Horned Frogs in the game. Houston is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — but the Wildcats have a size edge. The Cougars’ success getting second-chance opportunities speaks to their schemes and ambition to get offensive rebounds rather than NBA talent. Memphis’ size gave Houston problems — and I expect Arizona’s side edge to do the same with head coach Tommy Lloyd having a few days to work on this concern. The Wildcats beat one of the tallest teams in the nation in USC by 20 and nine points respectively this year. And Lloyd can play some very tall lineups by giving more minutes to the 7’0 Oumar Ballo along with regulars in the 6’11 Azuolas Tubelis and the 7’1 Christian Koloko. Arizona has been more effective playing away from home where they rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as compared to their ranking of 11th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road when playing their third game in seven days. They have covered the point spread 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE:  Houston allows only 59.0 Points-Per-Game this season — but Arizona has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. 25* CBB Thursday Television Game of the Year with the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (630) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (629) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (30-6) has won four of their last five games with their 85-76 victory against Michigan State as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Texas Tech (27-9) has won four of their last five games with their 59-53 win against Notre Dame as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Red Raiders are a trendy pick tonight against a Duke team that everyone seemingly wants to fade. I get it. But these folks are hitching their ride on a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. Texas Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after winning at least two games in a row. They held the Fighting Irish to just a 32.7% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33% from the field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. I appreciate the outstanding defense this team plays under head coach Mark Adams who was the architect as Chris Beard’s assistant coach. But this Texas Tech lacks elite talent that will likely make a difference at the next level. They also turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 285th in the nation. The Red Raiders only make 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 252nd in the nation. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. Duke covered the point spread four the first time in their last five games with their victory against Michigan State — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. I held off on making a call in this game until I saw a status update on freshman A.J. Griffin — but head coach Mike Krzyzewski indicated that he expected him to play tonight. He joins Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, and sophomore Wendall Moore who all likely be playing in the NBA. Banchero is the best player on the court tonight. Coaching counts — and schemes are important. But don’t underestimate talent. Duke has a distinct edge in talent in this one.

FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Duke Blue Devils (630) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (629). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:29 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (626) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (625) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Villanova (28-7) has won seven in a row and 12 of their last 13 games with their 71-61 win against Ohio State as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Michigan (19-14) has won three of their last four games with their 76-68 upset win against Tennessee as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: The narrative that lays out the best-case scenario for the Wolverines is that they are a team that needed time to develop after losing three players who moved on to the NBA including two players who are getting regular minutes as a rookie in Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers. Michigan was considered a top-five team to begin the season because of an outstanding freshman class joining a core group of veterans led by Hunter Dickinson. But injuries, COVID, head coach Juwan Howard’s end of the year suspension along with a very challenging non-conference campaign tarnished the Wolverines’ record. Yet here they are back in the Sweet 16 for the fifth consecutive Big Dance. If the freshman play at their potential, this will be a very hard team to beat. But Caleb Houstan and Missousa Diabate have still been too streaky even in the postseason. Michigan desperately needs Houstan to make outside shots — and his 3 of 8 effort from downtown helped the Wolverines get past Colorado State in the opening round. But Houstan did not score against the Volunteers — and he has not made more than three shots from behind the arc since February 23rd. Diabate stepped up and scored 13 points against Tennessee — but that was just the second time in his last six games where he scored more than 7 points. Throw in a questionable DeVante Jones into the mix — and I am not sure Michigan has enough firepower to keep up with a consistently excellent Wildcats’ team. Jones missed the opening game against the Rams with a concussion. He did play against the Vols — he has 2 points and 3 assists in 12 minutes — before suffering a knock that kept him out of the entire second half. Howard says that Jones is “on track” to play after practicing the last two days — but even if that is the case, he is at significant risk of suffering another blow that will require him to leave the game out of necessary precaution. Freshman Frankie Collins has stepped up nicely at the point in his absence — but the 14 points he scored against Colorado State was a season-high. The Wolverines are not likely to shoot the lights from 3-point land. They have made only 10 of their 30 shots from downtown in this Big Dance — and the last time they made at least 10 shots from behind the arc in a game was February 10th. They rank 166th in the nation by making 33.9% of their 3-pointers. They rank 77th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They do not force turnovers — they rank 337th in that category. Michigan is a solid rebounding team that pulls down 30.9% of their misses — but by ranking 83rd in the nation, that is not an elite figure. There is so much that has to go right for the Wolverines to stay competitive. The Volunteers had eight net turnovers against them, four more offensive rebounds, and made 53% of their shots inside the arc. Michigan won the game because they made 50% of their shots (after shooting 54.2% from the field against the Rams) and Tennessee missing 16 of their 18 shots from distance. Villanova will not be as generous. This looks like a letdown spot for the Wolverines as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they covered the point spread in their first two games in the Big Dance, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Villanova may be smaller — but they are well-practiced in making it hard for opponents to get the ball down in the post. And for every advantage Michigan might have on offense with their size, those big men are then put at a disadvantage when they have to guard a player like the 6’8 Eric Dixon on the perimeter. Dickinson struggled when trying to defend Tennessee big men who drew him outside paint on Saturday. Villanova makes 36.2% of their shots from distance. Their defense has been spectacular lately as they held their last five opponents to 58.8 Points-Per-Game on 39.8% shooting and just a 21.9% mark from behind the arc. They also have perhaps the best team captain in the nation in Collin Gillespie who has 34 points and eight assists so far in this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan’s fifth straight Sweet 16 appearance warrants their involvement as one of the top programs in the nation. But Villanova is already in that mix with two national championships since 2016 including their 2018 title when they beat the Wolverines in the finals. The Wildcats have registered 15 double-digit wins in the Big Dance since 2016 under head coach Jay Wright. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 NCAA Tournament games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court laying up to six points. The Wildcats’ formula for success has a great track record — and they make 78.6% of their free throws to boot so the late cover is a distinct possibility if we need a Plan B to cash tickets with this play. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Villanova Wildcats (626) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (283) is on a four-game winning streak after outlasting Memphis by an 82-78 score as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (27-8) has won eight of their last ten games after their 53-48 victory against New Mexico State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga got a scare against a talented Tigers’ team as they had to rally from a double-digit halftime deficit to advance to the Sweet 16. There were times in both that game and their opening-round victory against Georgia State where Drew Timme simply took over. He scored 57 points while grabbing 27 rebounds in the two games last week. Memphis was ranked in the top ten in a few power rankings since February — Gonzaga beat one of the best teams in the country that was playing much better when finally healthy. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory there they did not cover the point spread. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Gonzaga has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored at least 81 points in their last four games since their loss to Saint Mary’s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in four straight games. Gonzaga is the best scoring team in the nation — they lead in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency along with their effective field goal percentage of 59.3% and their 61.0% shooting clip inside the arc. They are also second in the country by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their fast pace will make it easier for them to cover a point spread in the 10-point range. The Bulldogs also sport the ninth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.0%. Arkansas made only 27.5% of their shots in their victory against the Aggies which is why they did not cover the 6.5-point spread despite holding New Mexico State to 48 points. This lack of scoring punch is a big problem — they are only making 38.7% of their shots in their last five games while not making more than 43.4% of their shots over that span which is why they are scoring just 69.0 PPG during that span. In theory, the Razorbacks are at their most dangerous if J.D. Notae can put them on his back. In practice as of late, the senior guard is slumping. He has not scored more than 19 points in four postseason games starting with the SEC Tournament. He has made only 25 of his last 88 shots (31.8%) in his last six contests. And he has not made more than two shots from behind the arc since February 19th. Furthermore, after collecting nine personal fouls in the first two rounds of the tournament, he is at risk of drawing fouls against the Bulldogs — and head coach Eric Musselman is dogmatic about not keeping a player on the floor before halftime if he collects two personal fouls in the first half. Arkansas has a short bench that gets into trouble if Notae and Jaylin Williams are not playing together at the same time. If the Razorbacks fall behind, they are not likely to shoot themselves back in the game because they only make 30.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 314th in the nation. The Arkansas formula for success is forcing turnovers — they rank 58th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and getting to the free-throw line where they rank 15th in the country in free throw rate. But the Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation defensive free throw rate -- and they are 29th in the country by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. The Razorbacks may be too small to hang with Gonzaga as well — they rank 209th in team size while the Bulldogs are seventh in that metric. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the Big Dance.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will engage in the pace Gonzaga wants to play — they rank 45th in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession while ranking 52nd in the country with their opponents ranking 17.0 seconds per possession. Look for Gonzaga to pull away and cover the point spread in this one. 10* CBB Arkansas-Gonzaga CBS-TV Special with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). THE SITUATION: Detroit (19-53) has lost six of their last seven games with their 119-115 upset loss to Portland as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Atlanta (36-36) comes off a 117-111 win in New York last night against the Knicks as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit may be eliminated from the playoff race in the Eastern Conference — but they have been playing better basketball as of late with the continued development of Cade Cunningham. The number one pick in the 2021 NBA draft had a loss start to the season after a late start to training camp after a delay in signing in his contract. Some injuries in the fall then impacted his adjustment to the challenge of the NBA — but the former Oklahoma State star is finding his groove. Cunningham is scoring 22.4 Points-Per-Game this month while pulling down 7.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and dishing out 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. Their loss to the Trail Blazers was their second-straight game and third of their last four that was decided by four points or less — so this team has usually been competitive in their losses. The Pistons made only 42.4% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. But Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Pistons have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games in March. Atlanta has been consistently inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played without a day of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing their second game in back-to-back days. Atlanta will play this game undermanned with John Collins out with a foot injury and Lou Williams likely not playing because of personal reasons. The Hawks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit won the last meeting between these two teams on March 7th by a 113-110 score in overtime as a 7.5-point home underdog. Cunningham starred in that game by scoring 28 points for the Pistons in the win while adding 10 rebounds. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings against Detroit. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (19-16) has won two in a row and five of their last six contests with their 70-68 victory against Dayton in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Xavier (20-13) has won three of their last four games after their 72-56 victory against Florida as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt beat the Flyers despite only making 37.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Commodores have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Vanderbilt ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and they are 38th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have wins against Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU who all made the NCAA Tournament. Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Xavier held the Gators to just 32.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 24 games. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Xavier ranked just sixth in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.6% was 10th in the conference. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Xavier may be without their second-leading scorer Paul Scruggs who injured his knee in the game against Florida. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year on the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (44-27) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 138-119 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (42-29) ended their three-game losing streak with a 113-99 win against Toronto as a 4-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee allowed the Timberwolves to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bucks should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. Chicago made 48.9% of their shots in their victory against the Raptors yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They also held Toronto to 44.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Bulls are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be without Khris Middleton tonight as he nurses an ankle injury — but the Bulls are undermanned in this contest as well. Lonzo Ball remains out and Zach LaVine is questionable with a knee injury. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Month is on Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (22-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 81-73 victory against Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. Purdue (28-7) has won four of their last five games with their 78-56 victory against Yale as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: In this battle of elite defense versus elite offense, I give the decided edge to the Texas defense. First-year head coach Chris Beard’s “no middle” schemes are aggressive in attacking the ball in the post to force perimeter or bad-angle side looks to the basket. His Texas Tech teams were outstanding in coaxing their opponents into taking bad shots. The Longhorns team he has assembled in Austin has warmed to his scheme as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and I expect Beard’s bunch to play their best defense of the season in the NCAA Tournament. The challenge is stiff against this Boilermakers team that ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Purdue’s strength is in the interior with their twin towers of Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. But Texas ranks in the top-20 in defense at the rim and in the top-10 in post-up defense — so they should have success in getting Purdue to rely on their outside shooting. The Boilermakers still have an outstanding player maker and scorer in Jaden Ivey — but that is where the Longhorns’ Courtney Ramey enters the picture. Ramey is an outstanding defender who stymied Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji in two regular-season contests. Not only did Agbaji endure his two fewest-shot attempt games against Texas but he only had one field goal in the final regular-season game with Ramey hounding him. Texas’ issues have been on the other end of the court — but they were impressive against a red hot Virginia Tech team on Friday. The Longhorns scored at a 1.19 Points-Per-Possession rate while making 10 shots from behind the arc. Texas may prove to be a better offensive team than their numbers suggest now that they are outside the Big 12 competition that boasts stout defensive clubs like Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU. The Longhorns had failed to cover the point spread in four straight games before beating the Hokies (and six of seven) — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Purdue held Yale to just a 36.5% shooting percentage in their win on Friday — that was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. But the Boilermakers are not a great defensive team as they rank 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is the weak link for them in this contest. Purdue is outside the top-100 in protecting the rim — and the Longhorns are seventh in the nation in shot attempts at the rim. Texas has struggled to score baskets against teams who force turnovers — but that is not the Boilermakers who rank 346th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Additionally, the potent Purdue offense is not quite as dynamic when playing away from West Lafayette. While the Boilermakers lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they drop to fifth in the country when playing on the road. That’s still pretty good — but while they make 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc at home, that mark drops to a 37.1% clip when playing away from home. Purdue is 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while Purdue had gone seven straight games without covering the point spread before playing Yale, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games when favored. Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on the neutral court as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in tournament settings including three of their four tourney games this season under Beard. 25* CBB Round of 32 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (518). THE SITUATION: Toronto (39-31) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 128-123 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9-point favorite. Philadelphia (43-26) has won two games in a row with their 111-101 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: The 76ers may choose to rest Joel Embiid tonight with a showdown with Miami Heat looming tomorrow. He is listed as questionable. If Embiid does not play, this Philly team lacks size. Even with Embiid playing normal minutes, the trading away of Andre Drummond has left their second unit lacking a big man when Embiid is off the court — and it has contributed to James Harden running with the second unit not being very effective. Even if Embiid plays tonight, Toronto should stay competitive. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored. The Sixers are also just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Toronto has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are 24-13 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto will not have Fred VanVleet tonight — but they have depth and that is the reason they are getting up to eight points in this contest. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have posted a Net Efficiency Rating of +6.1 in their last six games. Philly has a Net Efficiency Rating of -0.3 despite winning four of their last six games. The losses of Drummond and Seth Curry in the trade for Harden should not be discounted. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (517) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (828) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (827) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (26-9) has won three of their last four games after their 97-62 win against Montana State as a 15-point favorite on Friday. Notre Dame (24-10) has won three of their last four games with their 78-64 upset win against Alabama as a 4-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Viejas Arena in San Diego.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech made a season-high 66.7% of their shots against the Bobcats — and I expect them to build off their momentum tonight. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. If Texas Tech is operating at even a pretty high level on offense, they are very tough to beat. The Red Raiders lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their defense travels as they also rank number one in the country in that metric when playing away from home. Texas Tech will be difficult to upset because they generate additional scoring opportunities. They pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, ranking 39th in the nation. They also force turnovers in 23.6% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 10th in the nation — and the Irish turn the ball over in 22.1% of their possessions, ranking 334th in the country. If there is a weakness to this team, it is that they turn the ball over in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — but Notre Dame ranks 333rd in the country by forcing turnovers in 15.2% of their opponent’s possessions. This is a difficult spot for the Fighting Irish playing their third game in five days — and remember that they survived double overtime in the First Four so the physical and mental road has been grueling. They made 10 of their 16 (62.5%) of their shots from behind the arc continuing a theme this week of teams we bet against enjoying outlier performances from behind the arc. But this is a small team that may get overwhelmed by the physical style of the Red Raiders. Furthermore, while Notre Dame made 39.3% of their 3-pointers at home, that number dropped to a 37.0% clip when playing on the road. Additionally, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking of 49th in the nation at home drops to a ranking of 128th on the road while giving up more than 5 points per 100 possessions in adjusted projections.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Notre Dame-Texas Tech TBS-TV Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (828) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (822) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (821) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (25-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 67-60 victory against Colgate as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Iowa State (21-12) ended their three-game losing streak with their 59-54 upset win against LSU as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin’s record and seeding may be tainted by a fortunate 12-2 record in games decided by one possession, but bettors are making a mistake in presuming that make this team overvalued vis-a-vis the point spread. The analytics that influences the point spread already this intangible into account. Furthermore, these same bettors (and other observers) are making a mistake in assuming that winning close games is exclusively a function of luck. Some characteristics make winning close games more likely to occur. And when a team has a star player who can close out games like the Badgers’ Johnny Davis, then the good record in close games becomes not so much based on luck. The Chicago Bulls won plenty of close games with Michael Jordan. Let’s not overreact to Wisconsin’s 25 wins — but let’s not overreact to a 12-2 record in close games either. The Badgers’ slide late in the season coincided with an ankle injury to Davis — but after a slow start against the Raiders on Friday that appeared to be triggered by nerves (from my vantage point watching the game), he stepped in the second half and ended the game with 25 points and eight rebounds. He tweaked his ankle at the end of the game so he may not be 100% today — a reason why I kept this play at just 10*s. Those of us backing the Badgers should have cashed winning tickets. While it will be impossible to forget the garbage time layup Colgate scored to conclude the game (rather than take a 3-pointer), the Raiders stayed competitive in the game by making a red hot 10 of 22 (45.6%) of their shots from behind the arc. Wisconsin usually holds their opponents to 32.7% shooting from 3-point range. The Badgers rank 34th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they improve to 17th in the country when looking exclusively at numbers away from home. Their play on defense jumps to ranking 22nd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 129.5 or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court with the Total below 130. Iowa State ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency due to forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking fourth-best in the country. But good luck trying to get turnovers against this Badgers’ team that leads the nation by only turning the ball over in 12.6% of their possessions. The Cyclones’ defensive aggressiveness does lead them to foul too much — they rank 313th in the nation in putting their opponents on the foul line. Wisconsin is the wrong team to foul — they make 74.2% of their free throws. Iowa State got a fortunate draw against LSU just fired their head coach Will Wade. While a Steve Fisher situation for Michigan in 1989 was a possibility with the Tigers playing inspired basketball for an interim coach, a flat performance was also a distinct possibility. The Tigers made only 37.0% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Cyclones’ last seven games. And Iowa State’s Tyrese Hunter came out of nowhere to make 7 of his 11 shots from behind the arc despite only shooting 28.3% from 3-point land this season. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with no more than one day of rest.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State started the season 12-0 as they thrived on a soft non-conference schedule. They limped into the Big Dance have lost 12 of their last 19 games. Playing away from Ames against NCAA Tournament teams that were seeded no lower than a six, the Cyclones lost all five of those games with an average losing margin of -14.6 Points-Per-Game. 10* CBB Iowa State-Wisconsin TNT Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (822) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (823) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (824) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 54-41 win against Loyola-Chicago in a pick ‘em matchup on Friday. Villanova (27-7) has won six in a row after their 80-60 victory against Delaware as a 14.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Kyle Young and Zed Key both returned to action for head coach Chris Holtmann against the Ramblers — and this is a different team when Ohio State has this added front-line depth. Both players missed time late in the regular season which played a large role in them losing four of their last five games. If there is a silver lining to an early exit in a conference tournament, it is the additional practice time it affords teams that are already safely in the Big Dance. Holtmann was able to use the week off to integrate Young and Key back into the mix to prepare for the NCAA Tournament — something he really could not do for over a month. I don’t think the analytics are accurately reflecting this team at this point given the injuries they endured during the season. The Buckeyes’ defensive numbers are not very good for the season — but Ohio State’s defensive effort was encouraging against Loyola. While the Ramblers endured some bad shooting luck in making only 26.8% of their shots, the Buckeyes deserve some credit in posting their best defensive effort of the season. Getting two 6’8 forwards back into the mix certainly helped the interior defense. Young scored 9 points and added 7 rebounds back in the starting lineup while Key came off the bench to grab 7 boards in 12 minutes of play. Additionally, Ohio State held the Ramblers to just 18 points in the first half after limiting Penn State to just 24 first-half points in the Big Ten Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing no more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points in their last contest. And in their last 9 games playing with one day or less of rest, they have covered the point spread in 7 of these contests. The Buckeyes advanced to the second round despite making only one of their 15 shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods should aid more of their 3s landing this afternoon. Ohio State ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency — and I think that underrates what their true value is now that they are healthy. They rank 37th in the nation by nailing 36.6% of their shots from downtown — so Friday was an aberration. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when the Total is set in the 130s. Villanova may be due for some shooting regression after making 50.9% of their shots against Delaware. That was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. I worry about the Wildcats as a multiple-possession favorite against good teams because they are proverbial “live by the 3, die by the 3” team. They rank 18th in the nation by taking 46.2% of their shots from behind the arc. They did nail 13 of their 28 shots from distance against the Hens on Friday — but they were playing a Delaware team ranked 275th in the nation in 3-point defense. Ohio State holds their opponents to 33.7% shooting from behind the arc — and that mark improves to a 32.5% clip when they are playing away from Columbus. Most telling, Villanova does their best shooting at home where they rank sixth in the nation by making 41.3% of their 3-pointers. But when they go on the road, that mark plummets to a 33.% clip — a very mediocre mark that ranks 167th in the nation. Plan A for head coach Jay Wright is 3-point shooting. If he needs a Plan B on offense, that will be tough with the reinvigorated Buckeyes’ frontline that ranks 30th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.7% shooting inside the arc.

FINAL DEPTH: Villanova plays small-ball — so they may face some difficulties with the size Ohio State has again. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog dog on a neutral court. 10* CBB Ohio State-Villanova CBS-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (823) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (795) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (796) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (22-10) has won seven of their last eight games after their 64-53 victory against Boise State as a 3-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (27-3) has won three games in a row with their 93-72 win against Georgia State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as a 22.5-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis is a dangerous underdog in this game — even against Gonzaga. When head coach Penny Hardaway was bickering with the press, his team was not at full strength because of injuries. Now this team has won thirteen of their last fifteen contests — and one of the power rankings systems I use for analytics lists them as the ninth-best team in the nation in terms of Net Efficiency over their last ten games. The Tigers are certainly loaded with talent. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. This team possesses the characteristics that can make life difficult for the Bulldogs. They create extra scoring opportunities on both ends of the court. They are fifth in the nation by rebounding 37.5% of their missed shots. They force turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They can also get hot from behind the arc as they make 36.0% of their shots, ranking 56th in the country. They have also continually improved their play on defense — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. This group is far from perfect — their biggest weakness is being too loose with the basketball. They turn the ball over in 22.9% of their possessions, ranking 302nd in the nation — opponents steal ball in a nation-high 13.2% of their possessions. But if there is one thing that Gonzaga does not do well, it is forcing turnovers. The Bulldogs only water steals in 8.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 214th in the country. Their defensive turnover rate is 16.7%, ranking 285th. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court. Gonzaga has been showing some chinks in the armor since losing to Saint Mary’s. The Panthers gave them a serious run for 35 minutes on Thursday. They are just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and Gonzaga is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Tigers present a similar profile to the Alabama team that upset the Bulldogs early in the season. Expect a close game. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Memphis Tigers (795) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas (26-8) has won two of their last three games with their 75-71 victory against Vermont as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. New Mexico State (27-6) won their fourth straight game with their 70-63 upset win against Connecticut as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: New Mexico State nailed 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc against the Huskies to trigger that upset victory — that was the best shooting mark from 3-point range all season. History is not likely to repeat itself tonight given that this Aggies team only makes 33.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 173rd in the nation. New Mexico State has now covered the point spread in four straight games — but they may be due for an emotional letdown now. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. New Mexico State held UConn to just 22 first-half points after limiting Abilene Christian to just 21 first-half points in the WAC Tournament Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. This Aggies’ team is solid and consistent — but they do not have the characteristics to produce variable events that can overcome the talent gap they will face tonight (unless they make 65% of their 3-pointers again — the 3-point shot is the great equalizer which can be very frustrating for us, in the short-term). The strength of this team is their rebounding — and they will impede the Razorbacks’ ambitions for second-chance points. But while New Mexico State is 41st in the nation by pulling down 33% of their misses, Arkansas holds their opponents to rebounding only 25.5% of their missed shots. The Aggies defense was much better at home in Las Cruces where they ranked 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they plummet to just 126th ranking in that metric when playing on the road. New Mexico State is much too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions, ranking 309th in the nation. Away from home, it is even worse as they lose possession 21.2% of the time. These bigger underdogs are more likely to pull upsets and cover point spreads when they can slow the pace of the game. The Aggies’ turnover problem works against this ambition — and the Razorbacks want to push the pace as they average 70.6 possessions per game, ranking 28th in the nation. Arkansas is a rock-solid -- ranking 20th in the nation at KenPom while registering wins against Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky while sweeping all three against LSU. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. New Mexico State scores most of their points inside the arc — but Arkansas ranks 47th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.5% shooting on their 2-point shots with that mark lowering to a 45.2% clip against SEC opponents. The Razorbacks also rank 18th in the nation in free throw rate — and they make 75.5% of their freebies so they should pull away late. This team’s biggest problem is they foul too much — but the Aggies were 11th in the WAC by making only 66.2% of their shots at the charity stripe. They should build off the momentum of their win on Thursday as they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first time New Mexico State is playing in the second round of the Big Dance in their last 12 appearances in this tournament. They have still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Round of 32 Blowout Game of the Year is on the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Murray State Racers (790) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (789) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Murray State (31-2) won their 21st game in the row on Thursday with their 92-87 win in overtime against San Francisco as a 1.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RACERS MINUS THE POINTS: We had San Francisco on Thursday — and it would have been great to see the Racers win by two points at the end of regulation time. This Murray State team is good — and they should overwhelm a Saint Peter’s team we were also on in their upset of the Wildcats. The Racers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win by six points or less — including covering 6 of these last 7 situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when playing their second game in three days. And while Murray State has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, the Racers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set at 129.5 or less. Saint Peter’s enjoyed the best shooting performance in their last 13 games by making 50.9% of their shots including nailing 9 of 17 (52.9%) from 3-point range. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight. What was a bit troubling is that they pulled the upset despite Kentucky making 42.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. The Peacocks’ ranked 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but the red flag for this team is that they plummeted to 79th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. The Peacocks are a dangerous underdog because they can make 3s and generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the boards and forcing turnovers — but the Racers do a good job defending these tactics. Murray State only turns the ball over in 17.0% of their possessions, ranking 88th in the country. They hold their opponents to rebounding only 25.3% of their misses, ranking 66th in the country. And their opponents only make 29.8% of their 3-pointers against them, ranking 20th in the country. Murray State also generates additional possessions — so they have ways to get out of trouble. They rank 11th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.6% of their opponents' possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Murray State is a more athletic version of what Saint Peter’s identity — but with a more efficient offensive attack that ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. The Racers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. 20* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Murray State Racers (790) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (789). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (792) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (792) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 85-49 victory against Norfolk State as a 20.5-point favorite on Thursday. North Carolina (25-9) has won seven of their last eight games with their 95-63 victory against Marquette as a 4-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor should keep their momentum going to tip off the Saturday card as they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread win. They are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The reigning National Champions are dealing with injuries with big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua out the season and guard L.J. Cryer still out with a foot injury. This hurts head coach Scott Drew’s depth as he has now dropped down to a six-man rotation — but I don’t think this is the game where the lack of a good bench burns them. The Baylor team playing this afternoon is the same group that has rallied together since this pair of injuries in mid-February. The Bears ended the regular season winning five games in a row including a 10-point against Kansas despite these injuries. Freshman Jeremy Sochan has emerged as a versatile piece for Drew who has revved his scoring to 12 points-per-game since these injuries. North Carolina looked great against the Golden Eagles — but this is the same team that lost by 13 points to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels are solid but not spectacular on defense as they rank 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Baylor, on the other hand, ranks 11th in the nation in that metric. This North Carolina team shoots from distance better than some of the previous Roy Williams squads — but the Bears hold their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 18th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on a neutral court as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Big Dance — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight in the NCAA Tournament as a dog. Baylor is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB North Carolina-Baylor CBS-TV Special with the Baylor Bears (792) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:50 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (24-7) limps into the NCAA Tournament with two straight losses after their 69-63 upset loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. Colgate (23-11) has won 15 games in a row after their 74-58 victory against Navy as a 7-point favorite to claim the Patriot League Tournament title back on March 9th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin has been upset in two straight games — after previously riding a five-game winning streak. An ankle injury to Johnny Davis in their regular-season finale setback to Nebraska played a big role in those losses. Davis has not been at 100% — but I am betting (literally) that the week off will have him in better shape for this one tonight. And the Badgers are still the Badgers — a solid team with a reliable system under head coach Greg Gard. What potentially makes this group special is Davis is an All-American talent. Critics point to Wisconsin’s 12-2 record in games decided by five points or less to suggest that the Badgers are overrated. These observers are confusing seed value with point spread value. If you are going to invoke that the Ken Pomeroy metrics indicate that the Badgers were the seventh luckiest team in the nation, you might want to also mention that his same metrics predict Wisconsin as a 7-point winner in this one. So, the line is not off (unless you think a 0.5 to 1.0 difference is offering an actionable edge — I don’t). But I take the Pomeroy analytics with a grain or two of salt because they do not account for home/road splits. In another power rankings system I use, while the Badgers rank 31st in the nation overall, they rise to 14th in the country when evaluating play on the road or neutral courts. Wisconsin thrives away from home because their overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 33rd in the country rises to a ranking of the 13th when evaluating road and neutral court play only. After only making 36.7% of their shots against Sparty last week — the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games — they should hit more shots tonight. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row by six points or less. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Colgate covered the point spread in all three of their Patriot League Tournament games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering three in a row as a favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. The Raiders have become the cream of the crop in the Patriot League with a 54-12 mark in conference play in the last three seasons. But their most challenging contests this season were against St. John’s and Vermont which Pomeroy ranks as the 59th and 56th best teams in the country. Colgate lost by 18 points to the Red Storm and by 10 points to the Catamounts. By the way, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin as the 32nd best team in the nation ever after their luck-tainted analytics. The Raiders are the prototype School Yard Bully whose style helps them bully lesser opponents before they cower in fear against stiffer competition. They don’t force turnovers (16.2%, 297th) or crash the glass (26.5%, 276th). Plan A to pull an upset is to nail their 3s. They shoot from behind the arc in 42% of their shot attempts — and they do nail 40% of them. But, while making 41.4% of their bombs when playing in their familiar gym, their 3-point shooting drops to 38.9% when away from home. That is still a good mark — but it is moving away from elite — and now they are facing a Badgers’ defense predicated on stopping 3-point shooting. Wisconsin ranks 59th in the country in limiting shots from behind the arc — and their opponents make just 32.3% of these shots. Their opponents generate just 27.8% of their points against Wisconsin from behind the arc, the 299th lowest mark in the country. Gard’s teams make it tough to beat the Badgers with a barrage of 3-pointers — and this Colgate team lacks a Plan B if Plan A fails. Finally, the Raiders’ play on defense is below average. They rank 198th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 283rd in the country in that metric when they play away from home (and this highlights my biggest disagreement with the Pomeroy/Vegas point spread projection). Even worse, Colgate ranks 202nd in defending ball screens and they struggle against isolation — and these offensive tactics are the bread and butter of this Wisconsin team with Davis.

FINAL TAKE: Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Patriot League. Wisconsin is 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games in the Big Dance — and playing down the street in Milwaukee sure doesn’t hurt. 25* CBB Round of 64 Game of the Year is on the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (776) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (775) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama (19-13) limps into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after their 82-76 upset loss at Vanderbilt as a 5.5-point favorite last Thursday. Notre Dame (23-10) survived double-overtime on Tuesday with their 89-87 upset win against Rutgers in the First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Viejas Arena in San Diego, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Congratulations to the Fighting Irish for advancing to the first round of the Big Dance — but these are terrible circumstances. As if playing an extra 10 minutes of physically and emotionally-grueling basketball on Wednesday was not enough, they then had to get on a plane to fly west from Dayton, Ohio to San Diego to play in an afternoon game that tips at 1:15 PM ET from their body clocks from earlier in the week. Notre Dame has allowed 87 points in each of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. The Fighting Irish beat (a now eliminated) Kentucky in December when John Calipari was still putting that team together — but this team is just 4-9 in their 13 games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. Alabama is wildly inconsistent who tends to live by the 3 and die by the 3 — but they are battle-tested after enduring perhaps the most difficult schedule in the nation. They were 8-8 against Quad 1 teams including a signature victory against Gonzaga. Granted, the Crimson Tide takes 48% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Irish do like to play zone defenses to cover for their lack of depth and size. The teams that give Alabama trouble tend to crash the offensive glass and force turnovers. The Crimson Tide allows their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their missed shots and they turn the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions. But Notre Dame only forces turnovers in 15% of their opponent’s possessions — and they only pull down 22.1% of their missed shots. Alabama should make more than the 35.8% of their shots that converted in their loss to the Commodores in the SEC Tournament. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Notre Dame-Alabama TNT Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (776) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (775). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (756) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (755) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: USC (26-7) limps into the NCAA Tournament losing three of their last four games after their 69-59 loss to UCLA as a 6-point underdog last Friday. Miami (FL) (23-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped with their 80-76 loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament as an 8.5-point underdog last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: USC was flat last week in their rematch against their cross-town rivals — and the Bruins were extra-motivated to avenge an earlier loss to the Trojans this season. The Trojans only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. They also allowed UCLA to nail 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three contests. Head coach Andy Enfield’s team should rebound this afternoon — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. After a perfect 13-0 start this season, this Trojans team has some issues — but they don’t emerge against teams that have the size that can battle them on the boards like Arizona and Stanford. With four players in the starting lineup at 6’9 led by the 6’10 Isaiah Mobley, USC is the fourth-tallest team in the nation. They thrive off the glass where they pull down 33.8% of their missed shots, ranking 22nd in the nation. The Hurricanes allow their opponents to pull down 30.3% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the country. And they forego offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 23.4% of their missed shots, ranking 310th in the nation. USC is also very tough to score against in the perimeter — they hold their opponents to only 41.6% shooting inside the arc, ranking second in the nation. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite. Miami allowed Duke to make 50% of their shots — that was the fourth time in their last five games where they allowed an opponent to make at least 50% of their shots. This Hurricanes team struggles on defense as they may be the worst defensive team in head coach Jim Larranaga’s tenure at South Beach. Miami (FL) ranks 152nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow their opponents to nail 35.2% of their shots from downtown, ranking 267th in the nation. USC is a good shooting team from the perimeter as they make 35.4% of their shots from downtown, ranking 74th in the country. This Hurricanes team is a potent scoring team that thrives in transition where they lead the nation in scoring. But this transition game is not going to get as many opportunities with the Trojans controlling the glass. Miami is eighth in the nation in protecting the basketball — but this won’t help much against this USC team that does not force turnovers. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least three of their last four games. Miami is just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament.

FINAL TAKE: USC is an unreliable favorite because they give away points on the free-throw line — they only make 66.6% of their shots at the charity stripe. But while blown free throws can ruin point spread covers for favorites laying multiple points — it is less of an issue when the favorite is not laying more than one possession’s worth of points. Tellingly, the Trojans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the USC Trojans (756) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (755). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (24-9) was eliminated in the West Coast Conference Tournament in an 81-71 loss to Gonzaga as a 14-point underdog on March 7th. Murray State (30-2) has won 20 straight games after winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament with a 71-67 victory against Morehead State as a 7.5-point favorite on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DONS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco should be rested and ready for this contest. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a conference loss. The Dons are in a great situation against the Racers — but the initial challenge in assessing this game is determining the extent of the impact of them being without their 6’9 starting center Yauhen Massalski who was declared out tonight with a knee injury. For starters, San Francisco was without him for the game against Gonzaga — and that was the closest margin of victory for the number one ranked Bulldogs all season. Head coach Todd Golden has another reliable big man getting minutes in 6’9 Patrick Tape. Golden desperately needed size for this year’s team so he brought in both Massalski from San Diego and Tape from Duke. Tape was a three-year starter at Columbia where he scored 11.3 Points-Per-Game and pulled down 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game before drawing the attention of Mike Krzyzewski, which is not too shabby. Massalski is the better offensive player — but Tape has been in the rotation all season and is capable and experienced. The cogs to the Dons’ offense remain guards Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. The scoring loss from Massalski’s absence should be covered by the emerging wing Julian Rishwain. The former Boston College transfer has scored at least 13 points in four of his last five games — and he netted 20 points against Gonzaga. Golden gets the most of his team’s talent by deploying analytics — this is a team that takes 44.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation or they look for shots near the basket. The defense ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 44th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Dons do a solid job of generating additional scoring opportunities as they rank in the top-150 in both forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding. What is intriguing about San Francisco is that while they rank 21st in the nation in one of the power ranking systems I use, they rise to 13th best in the country when playing away from home on neutral courts and true road environments using those metrics. They rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road while holding their opponents to 27.8% shooting from behind the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. This package helps explain why the Dons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in tournament settings. After dominating the regular season and conference tournament, the bubble may be ready to burst for Murray State as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a win. Furthermore, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after winning at least five games in a row. I avoided betting against this team during the Ohio Valley Conference season for good reason — but I have noted that only two of their 30 victories were against teams that made the Big Dance. Murray State beat UT-Chattanooga — and their victory against Memphis was when the Tigers were imploding while playing undermanned. This is a young roster that has been untested when compared to the Dons who are a veteran team who played in a very competitive West Coast Conference. The Racers have great analytics — but we need to take them with a grain of salt given the teams they played. And San Francisco matches up well. Murray State ranks 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding — but the Dons are 33rd in the country by holding their opponents to just a 23.8% defensive rebounding rate. The Racers rank 28th in the nation in forcing turnovers — but San Fran only turned the ball over in 15.4% of their possessions in conference play. And I know Murray State ranks 25th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 30.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — but let’s dig deeper. The Racers rank only 116th in the country in allowing open 3s and they are 118th in the nation in opponents' shots at either the rim or behind the arc — so they may be due a visit from the Regression Gods when it comes to opponent 3-point conversion rates. Murray State also only makes 69.2% of their free throws, ranking 267th in the nation — and we watched Notre Dame almost give away their game with Rutgers last night from misses at the charity stripe. Most importantly, the Racers put up their best numbers at home where they ranked 19th in the nation according to the power rankings system referenced earlier. But their ranking drops to 61st in the nation when they are playing away from home with their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at 74th and their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at 52nd. They make 44.3% of their shots away from home which generates 71.5 PPG which is 7.8 PPG below their season average. Tellingly, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court when the Total is in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: We are getting point spread value in this game with the public already disrespecting the Dons because they were on the wrong side of the bubble for many NCAA Tournament projection systems — and now add on the injury to Massalski. Injuries tend to be overestimated — especially in the short-term — vis-a-vis point spread aspirations. San Fran has talent and depth still that will be motivated to step up in his absence. I like Murray State — and I wish they were playing as an underdog against a bloated power conference foe. Instead, they face another mid-major upstart — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 25* CBB Round of 64 Underdog of the Year with the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (733) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (734) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (19-11) won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Championship Game with their 60-54 victory against Monmouth as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Kentucky (26-7) had their three-game winning streak end in the SEC Championship Game in a 69-62 upset loss to Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s won the conference championship despite only making 41.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in the MAAC tournament. They should feel confident entering this game. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread victory. The Peacocks have the profile of a team that can make this very uncomfortable for head coach John Calipari. Saint Peter’s is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while making it very difficult on opposing shooters. The Peacocks rank 14th in the nation with their opponents making only 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 11th in the country with their opponents making just 44.0% of their shots inside the arc. They have held their last seven opponents to a mere 31% field goal percentage which translates into only 52 Points-Per-Game. With rim protector K.C. Ndefo who averages 2.9 blocks-per-game, Saint Peter’s has a big man who can give the Wildcats’ Oscar Tshiebwe some trouble down low. This stout defense travels as they hold their opponents on the road to just a 46.1% effective field goal percentage, ranking 19th in the nation. Admittedly, the Peacocks are not an offensive juggernaut — but they have some characteristics that keep them feisty and competitive. They will slow the game down — they average 18.4 seconds per possession, the 283rd slowest rate in the country. Their games see an average of 66.1 adjusted possessions, the 240th lowest number in the nation. Saint Peter’s is active in generating more scoring opportunities for themselves to get their shots to fall. They force turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 41st in the nation. They also pull down 31.5% of their missed shots, ranking 70th in the country. The Peacocks do not take many 3s — but they are good when they shoot them. They nail 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 102nd in the nation — and that mark actually rises to a 36.1% clip when on the road, ranking 44th in the country. This formula for success works as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court as an underdog. Kentucky will be frustrated after losing the SEC Championship Game — but they are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a straight-up loss. The Wildcats can get in trouble — they only force turnovers in 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 232nd in the nation. Their offense can stagnate if they get lulled into the halfcourt slog that Saint Peter’s covets. Kentucky only makes 49.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road, ranking 144th in the nation. And they are unlikely to pull away from 3-point shooting as they only make 32.1% of their shots from distance on the road, ranking 231st in the nation. The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and the Peacocks are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog. The Wildcats are playing a lot of points for a game likely to not see more than 67 possessions. 10* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (733) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (734). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (22-10) enters the Big Dance after losing in their first game in the ACC Tournament to Virginia by an 87-80 score in a pick ‘em matchup last Thursday. Rutgers (18-13) lost their opening game in the Big Ten after getting a double-bye into the quarterfinals in an 87-74 loss to Iowa as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Notre Dame has been the more consistent team this season — and their style of play is better situated to pull-out single-elimination contests. Head coach Mike Brey’s team should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 80 points. Despite the early loss in the ACC Tournament, the Irish come into this game nailing 49.3% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 79.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have held these last five opponents to just 42.4% shooting from the field. Brey’s teams are usually efficient on the offensive end of the court. This Notre Dame team ranks 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to 29th in the country when they are playing away from South Bend. The Irish play at a slow pace but get the most out of their possessions — they are 28th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. They nail their 3s — they rank 18th in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc with that mark rising to a 39.6% clip in conference play. Their defense is solid with them doing a few things quite well. They limit their opponents to pulling down just 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 39th in the nation. They have the 22nd lowest opponent free throw rate in the country. They were second in the ACC by holding their opponents to just a 29.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc. Overall, the Fighting Irish were second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking third with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. Some may quibble with their resume — their best victory was against a Kentucky team still finding their identity in December. They have a 4-9 record in their 13 contests against Q1 and Q2 teams. But they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Rutgers befuddles some observers because of their inconsistency this season. They went through a stretch in mid-February where they upset four-ranked teams in a row in Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Yet they got upset by DePaul, UMass, and Lafayette (on their home court). I am not as puzzled by Rutgers — they play a high-floor but low-ceiling style of play that is much more effective when playing at home. They have a go-to scorer in Ron Harper, Jr. and they rank 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UConn won a National Championship with Kemba Walker with a star player and great defense. But that Huskies team did several other things pretty — like crash the glass. These Scarlet Knights don’t. They rank outside the top-100 in 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and free-throw rate. Plan-A is to make their shots while playing great defense. There is no Plan-B since they don’t create additional scoring possessions or steal points by making 3s or even make freebies at the charity stripe. They are a jump-shooting team — and these are the teams that go to die in the Big Dance. They rank 33rd in the nation in most mid-range jumpers — yet they rank in just 218th in the nation in making these shots. Big Ten teams usually play man-to-man defense — but they played zone against this team and Rutgers only scored at a .858 Points-Per-Possession rate against zone defense which was in the lowest-24th percentile. Now here comes this Irish team that plays plenty of zone defense to compensate for their lack of size and short bench. This is a bad matchup for the Knights. They rank 108th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — making only 33.6% of their 3-pointers and 49.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 181st and 203rd in the nation respectively. And their best defensive efforts have been on their home court. While they ranked 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, that defensive plummets to a 149th in the country slot when they are playing away from home. On the road, opponents make 34.4% of their 3-pointers and 52.4% of their 2-pointers, ranking 199th and 227th in the nation. Notre Dame should hit enough 3s to pull away in this game.

FINAL TAKE: Rutgers has the impressive five wins against Q1A teams this season — but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (535) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (536). THE SITUATION: Dallas (42-26) has won two games in a row after their 95-92 loss at Boston as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (36-33) has won four games in a row with their 150-108 blowout victory at Orlando as a 10-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas should build off their momentum tonight. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games after winning two games in a row on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after winning two of their last three games. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game. Dallas is a reliable road team that has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games when favored by up to six points. Dallas is a dangerous team now that Luka Doncic has regained his basketball shape after not being in top fitness coming back from the offseason. The addition of Spencer Dinwiddie gave this group a quality third scoring option alongside Jalen Brunson and Doncic. But the biggest difference with this team this season has been the influence of first-year head coach Jason Kidd with the team’s effort on the defensive end of the court. The Mavericks rank sixth in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Brooklyn shot 60.2% from the field last night which was the best shooting effort in their last 62 games. Kyrie Irving went off for 60 points as he played like a man knowing that he would get the next night off since he chose not to get vaccinated despite being employed by a city that requires  a COVID vaccine for their employees. So the Nets do not get Irving on the court — but he will probably showboat in the crowd which does not require vaccinations. He can’t help his teammates from the crowd — and Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by double-digits on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games with Kevin Durant back in the fold, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. With Irving on the court, Brooklyn has a dynamite Offensive Rating of 119.3 — but that number drops to just 109.9 when he is not on the court. The Nets’ attention to defense on the other end of the court is not consistent as they rank just 24th in Defensive Rating since the All-Star Break. Now Brooklyn returns home where they have failed to cover the point in 10 straight games after a win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 31 games at the Barclays Center this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. And in their last 7 home games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 7th when the Nets won by a 102-99 score — but the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 opportunities for same-season revenge. 10* NBA Dallas-Brooklyn ESPN Special with the Dallas Mavericks (535) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Santa Clara Broncos (677) plus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (678) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Santa Clara (21-12) had their three-game winning streak end with their 75-72 loss to Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday in the West Coast Conference Tournament. Washington State (19-14) had their four-game winning streak end in a 75-65 loss to UCLA as a 9-point underdog in the Pac-12 Tournament on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Santa Clara only made 40.6% of their shots against the Gaels — after upsetting them in their previous regular-season meeting — which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Broncos do better tonight — they are one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.2% fueled by their nailing 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking fifth in the nation. On the road, Santa Clara remains efficient with their shooting as they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency playing away from home. Their effective field goal percentage of 54.6% is 14th in the nation — and they make 41.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking third-best for teams playing away from home. On the defensive end of the court, the Broncos rank seventh in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. And while they allow their opponents to make 42.8% of their shots which results in 71.8 Points-Per-Game, that marks drops to 69.7 PPG with those opponents hitting just 42.1% of their shots. Santa Clara has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in the postseason. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Cougars have played three straight games Over the Total — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing two straight Overs, but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing at least three straight Overs. Washington State plays stout defense — they rank 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the Cougars can’t shoot — they make only 41.2% of their shots on their home court due to them only posting a 47.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking 294th in the nation. They make up for this shooting by generating more scoring possession by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions and rebounding 33.6% of their missed shots. But the Broncos are tough to beat in these areas. They rank 43rd in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.1% of their possessions — and that mark dropped to 15.3% in the West Coast Conference. They also hold their opponents to rebounding just 26.4% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored including four of their last five games at home when laying the points. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Santa Clara Broncos (677) plus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (505) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (506). THE SITUATION: Denver (40-22) has lost two games in a row after their 127-115- loss to Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Philadelphia (41-25) has won two of their last three games after their 116-114 victory in overtime at Orlando as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver should bounce back with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss as a home favorite. The Nuggets have lost two games in a row by double-digits after dropping their previous contest to Golden State by a 113-102 score. Denver has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This team continues to get by without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. although the hope is that both will return from injury in time of the playoffs. But Denver has a great head coach in Michael Malone — and with Nikola Jokic at center, they remain competitive against every team in the league. Jokic is scoring 26.1 Points-Per-Game on 57.3% shooting this season — and he is averaging 13.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 8.1 Assists-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games with the Total set in the 220-229.5 point range. Philadelphia only made 38.0% of their shots last night against the Magic — but that was still the second-best shooting effort in their last four games. The 76ers gave failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road. And while that game finished Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after playing their last game Over the Total. Philly now has their Big Three with James Harden joining Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris — yet they are just 4-4 ATS in their eight games since the blockbuster trade. While Ben Simmons was not offering anything to them this season, losing Seth Curry and Andre Drummond should not be underestimated. The 76ers’ 3-point shooting is down without Curry knocking down shots — they are now just 11th with a 35.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc since the All-Star Break. And the second unit with Harden leading the way has not been effective. Interior defense with the second unit is a big problem where Drummond had been spelling Embiid. The 76ers are not a good defensive team either — this is where the loss of Simmons from past seasons really is felt. In their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Philadelphia is 4-10-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: Denver is looking to avenge a 103-89 upset loss at home to the Sixers as a 7.5-point favorite on November 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Denver-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the Denver Nuggets (505) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (574) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (573). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (32-34) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 112-106 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Indiana (23-45) had their three-game losing streak snapped with a 119-108 win at San Antonio as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Atlanta should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home after winning on their home court in their last game. And while the Hawks have not covered the point spread in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home after not covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Atlanta is reliable at home — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on their home court and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They are also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by double-digits. Indiana may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. The Pacers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta won the last meeting between these two teams by a 133-112 score on February 8th — and Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss on the road where they lost by double-digits. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Hawks (574) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa (25-9) has won two straight games and seven of their last eight after their 84-74 victory against Rutgers as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (27-6) has won two straight and five of their last seven with their 69-61 victory against Penn State yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Hawkeyes’ offense is clicking — they are scoring making 49.2% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 86.4 Points-Per-Game. Iowa ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation in that metric when playing on the road. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They are also 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games played on a neutral court. Purdue held the Nittany Lions to just 40.7% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Boilermakers are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not covering the point spread in at least two games in a row. Purdue leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but there is a drop-off when are away from West Lafayette as they fall to fourth in the country in that metric when playing on the road. The Boilermakers are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games when favored — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team that is winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue swept the two regular-season games against Iowa after beating them by an 83-73 score on January 27th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 opportunities for same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big Ten Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (24-9) reached the finals of this tournament with their 42-36 upset win against North Texas as a 4-point underdog yesterday. UAB (26-7) joined them in the Championship Game with their 102-98 victory in overtime against Middle Tennessee State as a 7-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech ground out a slugfest yesterday afternoon with both teams weary after playing the previous night. The Bulldogs held the Mean Green to just 24.1% shooting in the win. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last contest. Louisiana Tech has won six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in three straight contests. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are effective on the defensive end of the court where they rank second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc. This team also ranks second in the conference by making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc when on the road — and the Blazers allow their conference opponents to make 55.4% of their 2-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 12th in Conference USA. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court. UAB is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. The Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UAB has scored at least 80 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in at least two straight games. The Blazers thrive in protecting their defensive glass — they hold their Conference USA opponents to rebounding just 24.1% of their missed shots. But this will not be much of a net advantage tonight against this Bulldogs team that sacrifices offensive rebounding for getting back on defense to defend against potential fast breaks. UAB also is 11th in the conference in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. The Blazers had a short turnaround yesterday afternoon after playing Thursday night -- so the extra overtime they endured will not help them tonight.

FINAL TAKE: UAB swept the two regular-season games this season after beating the Bulldogs by an 87-74 sore on March 5th — but Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge when they allowed at least 75 points in the loss. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620) in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (20-9) has won five straight games and 11 of their last 12 after their 85-69 victory against Central Florida as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. SMU (23-7) has won three in a row and five of their last six after their 83-58 win against Tulsa as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Penny Hardaway bickered with the media earlier this season when his team was struggling — and he was adamant that his group should not be judged too harshly until they got back to full health. Cut to March — and the Tigers are playing some of the best basketball in the country. Over their last ten games, Memphis ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Hardaway has his team generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers on defense. The Tigers force turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 35th in the nation. They pull down 37.4% of their missed shots, ranking fifth in the country — and that mark has risen to a 38.2% rebounding clip in their last ten games which is the top mark in the nation during that span. But what makes this Memphis so tough to beat now is that are taking better advantage of their scoring opportunities. The Tigers are nailing 37.8% of their shots behind the arc in their last ten games. In their last five games, they are nailing 49.3% of their shots which is generating 78.4 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their opponents to 39.2% shooting in their last five games which is translating into 63.0 PPG. Memphis ranks 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 13th in the country in that metric in their last ten games. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 after a point spread victory. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four of their five games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. SMU held the Golden Hurricane to just 33.3% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. For the second straight game, the Mustangs made 13 shots from 3-point land — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after making at least ten shots from downtown in two straight games. SMU is also 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Tigers have held their last ten opponents to just 29.9% shooting from 3-point range. SMU makes 38.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home — but their percentage drops to 34.7% when playing away from home. The Mustangs are also vulnerable against teams who crash the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.0% of their missed shots when playing on the road, ranking 318th in the nation. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games in a tournament setting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: SMU upset Memphis in their two regular-season games — and their 73-57 victory against them on February 20th was the only loss for the Tigers since January 20th. Memphis has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (877) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (878) in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament. THE SITUATION: USC (26-6) snapped their two-game losing streak in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday with their 65-61 win against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite. UCLA (24-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 75-65 win against Washington State as a 9-point favorite in their Quarterfinals contest on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC is getting their offense going by making exactly 49.0% of their shots in the second-straight game. They did not cover the point spread in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after a point spread loss. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while USC has still won seven of their last nine games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing their second game in the last three days on the road. USC has a 13-3 record away from home on the strength of their stout play on defense as these opponents to 38.3% shooting which is resulting in 64.2 Points-Per-Game. The Trojans lead the nation in interior defense as they limit their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc. They also pull down 34.0% of their missed shots on the other end of the court — and that mark rises to a 35.5% clip in conference play, the top mark in the Pac-12. USC has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. UCLA made 47.5% of their shots which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. And by holding the Cougars to 41.5% shooting, they played the best defensive game in their last three contests. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UCLA has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Away from Pauley Pavilion, the Bruins only make 42.3% of their shots which results in 71.6 PPG — a 5.0 PPG drop from their season average. UCLA is not a very good shooting team — and that problem worsens in unfamiliar environments. They rank 260th in the nation by possessing a 47.0% effective field goal percentage on the road. They make only 32.8% of their 3-pointers on the road and just 46.2% of their shots inside the arc away from home, ranking 205th and 269th in the country. This poor shooting helps explain why the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with the Trojans winning by a 67-64 score on February 12th before losing on the road by a 75-68 on March 5th. USC has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss where they gave up at least 75 points. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the USC Trojans (877) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Portland State (14-16) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 77-65 upset win against Southern Utah as a 6-point underdog yesterday. Northern Colorado (19-14) won their third game in their last four with their 68-67 victory against Eastern Washington as a 4-point favorite last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: I think we catching a much-improved team that is still beneath the radar of the betting market. First-year head coach Jase Coburn assembled the proverbial Island of Misfit Toys of castoffs from other conferences — but with six former Division I players coming in, this Portland State team has tons of talent for a Big Sky team. After a rocky start, the Vikings are putting it together late with 10 wins in their last 13 games. The biggest improvement has been on defense where they have held their last five opponents to 40.3% shooting which is resulting in 67.4 Points-Per-Game which is -4.3 PPG below their season average. Portland State is also making 45.5% of their shots over that span, a few notches above their 43.3% field goal percentage for the season. They were feeling it last night by nailing 51.9% of their shots at the Idaho Central Arena — so they will be comfortable playing in this gym. They also held Southern Utah to just 36.8% shooting. This good play should carry over as Portland State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games playing away from home when playing without a day of rest. The Vikings will deploy one of the most effective full-court presses in the nation tonight. They rank 15th in the nation by forcing 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they rank second in the country in their last ten games by forcing turnovers in 26.8% of their opponent’s possessions. This ability to force turnovers travels — Portland State ranks 11th in the nation in the net improvement they see in their play when on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog including seven of these last nine occasions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral court. Northern Colorado only made 11 of their 33 shots from inside the arc yesterday — but they bailed themselves out by nailing 13 of their 31 shots from 3-point range for a 41.9% clip. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they made at least 13 shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado was also very fortunate that Eastern Washington made only 43.3% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. The Bears can shoot the basketball — but they can’t defend. They rank 331st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they were tenth in the defensively-challenged Big Sky Conference. They allow their conference opponents to make 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 11th in the Big Sky. Their last five opponents have shot 49.7% from the field which has resulted in 79.8 PPG. Bad defensive teams make unreliable favorites. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when laying the points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament games.

FINAL TAKE: Portland State swept both regular-season games against the Bears — beating them by a 79-76 score on January 31st before holding them off again three days later in a 106-99 victory. Northern Colorado does not match up well against the Vikings since Portland State’s subpar shooting gets better scoring opportunities against the Bears. The Vikings forego protecting their defensive glass by looking for fast-break scoring opportunities — and Northern Colorado does not crash their offensive glass well as they only pull down 21.4% of their missed shots, ranking 344th in the nation. And the Portland State press was effective in both those earlier meetings as they forced 16 and 19 turnovers accounting for 21.9 and 23.7% of the Bears’ possessions. The Vikings are playing their best basketball of the season and will love the fast pace Northern Colorado embraces. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (830) minus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (829) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: VCU (21-8) had their eight-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 69-65 loss at Saint Louis as a 2.5-point underdog. Richmond (20-12) ended a two-game losing streak with their 64-59 win against Rhode Island as a 6-point favorite in the second round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: VCU only made 45.5% of their shots against the Billikens which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. They should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. VCU is a good basketball team that ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams’ identity on defense is founded on forcing turnovers — they are second in the country by forcing turnovers in 25.2% of their opponent’s possessions. This team also ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to just 26.8% shooting from behind the arc. These attributes travel on the road which explains why VCU has covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court when favored. Additionally, the Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. VCU does sacrifice protecting the defensive glass in the attempt to get fast-break scoring opportunities in transition — and the Spiders are not the team to punish them for this approach as they pull down only 22.7% of their missed shots, ranking 319th in the nation. Richmond has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Spiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: VCU demonstrated how well they matched up against this Richmond team by sweeping them in their two regular-season games this season. They last played on February 10th when VCU won by a 77-57 score. The Spiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points in the loss — and they have to cover their 3 opportunities when playing with double-revenge. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (830) minus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744) in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (21-9) won their sixth straight game with their 57-53 victory against Georgetown last night as a 9.5-point favorite. Connecticut (22-8) has won six of their last seven with their 75-68 victory against DePaul as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall survived a feisty Hoyas team last night that was motivated to pull off the upset of their season to offer some redemption from an otherwise disappointing year. The Pirates were flat to start the game as they found themselves trailing by 10 points with four minutes left in the first half while only scoring 24 points in the first 20 minutes of the game. But now with a game under their belt at Madison Square Garden, look for Seton Hall to play much better against a good Huskies team. The Pirates only made 38.6% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They did hold Georgetown to just 30.6% shooting as they continued their torrid pace on the defensive end of the court. Seton Hall ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 20th in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. They have held their last five opponents to 39.0% shooting which is resulting in just 61.4 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Pirates limit their opponents to making only 44.8% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 12th lowest in the nation. They also pull down 34.4% of their missed shots on the road in Big East play, the top mark in the conference. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a dog. Connecticut held the Blue Demons to just 39.4% shooting over the weekend which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. They out-rebounded DePaul by a 49-31 margin in the win — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards. The Huskies are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. UConn has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four of their last five contests. The Huskies have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Sometimes when a team is not covering spreads, it is because they are underachieving relative to their potential. However, point spread losing streaks can also indicate that a team is overrated relative to market expectations — and I think that is the case with UConn. The Huskies only make 48.4% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 230th in the nation. In Big East play, that shooting mark with their 2-pointers drops to 47.7%, the eighth-best in the conference. And when playing on the road, UConn is 318th in the country in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — and Seton Hall makes 76% of their freebies, ranking 39th in the country. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings this season — but it will be Seton Hall with the extra motivation of revenge after losing at UConn by a 70-65 score on February 16th. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Huskies are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (751) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (752) in the second round of the SEC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (16-15) has won two games in a row with their 86-51 victory against Georgia as an 8.5-point favorite last night. Alabama (19-12) limps into the SEC Tournament on a two-game losing streak with their 80-77 loss at LSU as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jerry Stackhouse’s Vanderbilt team will be a tough out in the SEC Tournament. They rank 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also are third in the SEC by making 36.6% of their shots from behind the arc. If their shots are not falling, the Commodores should generate extra scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers. They rank 31st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions. The Crimson Tide are vulnerable to pressure as they turn the ball over in 19.7% of their possessions, ranking 263rd in the nation — and that make worsened to a 20.2% clip against SEC competition. Vandy also gets to the free throw at the 14th most prolific rate in the country — and the Tide rank 263rd in the country in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. The Commodores have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after a victory. Away from home against conference opponents, Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Crimson Tide are playing too many higher-scoring games which put them in jeopardy given their mediocre play on defense. They rank 13th in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 186th in the nation in that metric when playing on the road while giving up 80.5 Points-Per-Game. Their last five opponents have made 47.5% of their shots which has translated into 80.0 Points-Per-Game. Alabama’s last three games have seen at least 157 combined points scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Crimson Tide are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games when favored. And in their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama beat Vanderbilt in Tuscaloosa earlier this season by a 74-72 score — but the Commodores have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games opportunities to avenge a loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Vanderbilt Commodores (751) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794) in the Quarterfinals of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (16-10) has won five in a row after their 67-60 victory against Hawai’i as a 7-point favorite last Thursday. UC-Irvine (15-9) has won two of their last three games after their 66-61 victory at Cal-State Bakersfield as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Tournament with momentum. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning at least four games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after winning five or six of their last seven games. UC-Santa Barbara beat the Rainbow Warriors despite allowing them to make 50% of their shots in what was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. And while they made 53.1% of their shots, that was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. The Gauchos have nailed at least 52.3% of their shots in seven of their last nine games. This is a potent scoring team that ranks 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.5%. They are 19th in the nation with a 55.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. They also rank 17th in the country in getting to the free-throw line. UC-Santa Barbara maintains their scoring prowess when playing away from home. They led the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 54.5% when playing away from home in conference play. They also led the conference by making 40.4% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. The Gauchos have a 5-7 record on the road — but they outscored those opponents. If their shots are not falling, they create additional scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play, the second-best mark in the Big West. The Anteaters are loose with the basketball as they rank 317th in the nation in turnover rate — and they were ninth in the Big West by turning the ball over in 22.2% of their possessions. On the road, UC-Irvine’s turnover rate rose to a 23% clip in conference play. UC-Santa Barbara comes into this game rested — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament games. UC-Irvine comes into this tournament as the winner in nine of their last eleven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight of ten. Their victory against the Roadrunners finished Over the 126.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Anteaters play great half-court defense — but they do struggle to score points, especially on the road. They have a 6-8 record on the road while getting outscored by -3.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank ninth in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road in conference play — and they make only 41.2% of their shots away from him which translates into just 60.6 PPG. They only make 30.9% of their shots from 3-point range on the road in conference play, ranking ninth in the conference. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine won the only meeting between these two teams on February 3rd by a 53-52 score. The Anteaters did turn the ball over 20 times in that — representing 32.8% of their possessions. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (753) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (754) in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (19-12) limps into the Big 12 Tournament on a two-game losing streak after their 70-64 loss at West Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Texas (21-10) has lost two games in a row after their 70-63 loss at Kansas as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU should play better this afternoon as they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while TCU has still covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 contests after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Horned Frogs have three high-profile victories against Texas Tech, Kansas, and LSU who all rank in the top-17 in the nation according to the Ken Pomeroy metrics. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team ranks second in the nation by pulling down 37.9% of their missed shots. This is an area of vulnerability for the Longhorns as they allow their opponents to rebound 29.6% of their missed shots, ranking 237th in the country. TCU also ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their loss to the Mountaineers fell Under the 137 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Horned Frogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as a dog. Texas lost to the Jayhawks over the weekend despite holding them to just 31.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 33% of their shots. Texas is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games when playing their second game in eight days. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing at least two games in a row. Another flaw with head coach Chris Beard’s team is they put their opponents on the foul line too much — they rank 311th in the nation in defensive foul rate. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored or a pick ‘em on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Texas swept the two regular-season meetings with TCU this season after their 75-66 win in Austin on February 23rd. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when motivated by double revenge. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Matinee with the TCU Horned Frogs (753) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (754). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (669) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (670) in the first round of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Butler (13-18) limps into the Big East Tournament on a five-game losing streak after their 78-59 loss to Villanova as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday. Xavier (18-12) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 97-75 win against Georgetown as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: We had Butler on Saturday in what I thought would be a better effort — but they laid an egg. The Bulldogs only made 36.4% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — and the 49.2% field goal percentage they allowed the Wildcats to enjoy was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four contests. But Butler has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a loss at home where they did not score at least 60 points. Furthermore, Butler has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after losing at least two in a row to conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing at least three games in a row. Despite their losing record, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. Butler has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 opening games in a tournament. Xavier made 54.7% of their shots against the Hoyas on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 16 games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 20 or more points. Xavier has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. Additionally, the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Xavier swept the two regular-season contests against Butler after a 68-66 win at home in Cincinnati on February 2nd as an 11-point favorite. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 opportunities for revenge. 10* CBB Wednesday Afternoon Matinee with the Butler Bulldogs (669) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622) in the Summit League Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (23-9) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten contests with their 92-72 victory against Oral Roberts as a 1-point favorite in the Semifinals of this tournament last night. South Dakota State (29-4) is on a 20-game winning streak after their 83-60 win against South Dakota as a 9-point favorite in the semifinals nightcap last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Fallas, South Dakota.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BISON PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota State was feeling it last night with their stroke as they nailed 60.3% of their shots in the win against the Golden Eagles. While I do not expect them to match that performance tonight, it is safe to say that they are comfortable shooting in this gym. The Bison have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a double-digit win against a Summit League opponent. North Dakota State thrives when playing half-court defense. They lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. The Bison lead the Summit in both 3-point and 2-point defense. They hold their conference opponents to 31.7% shooting from behind the mark — and that mark lowers to a 24.9% clip when playing away from home. They also limit their Summit League foes to just 48.1% shooting inside the arc — and that mark drops further to a 46.8% clip when playing away from home. North Dakota State has a 7-2 record away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against Summit League opponents. South Dakota State played one of their best games of the season last night. Their 59.6% field goal percentage was the best shooting mark in their last five contests — and by holding the Coyotes to just 44.6% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last four contests. South Dakota State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last game by 20 or more points. And while the Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. South Dakota State leads the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.6%. But this team is vulnerable against teams who can shoot the basketball because of their play on defense. The Jackrabbits rank 303rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 290th in the country fueled by their opponents nailing 37.4% from behind the arc, ranking 307th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: South Dakota State swept both games against North Dakota State this season — but both victories were by just four points. The Jackrabbits have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court when favored — and the Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (24-6) is on a four-game winning streak after upsetting Gonzaga by a 67-57 score as a 10.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Santa Clara (21-11) has won three straight games after their 91-67 victory as an 8.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Saint Mary’s comes off their biggest win all season — and their biggest victory since 2019 when they upset Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament Championship Game to clinch their last berth into the NCAA Tournament. An emotional letdown is likely for the Gaels. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a West Coast Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 10 or more points under head coach Randy Bennett. And while Saint Mary’s has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. This did hold the Bulldogs to just 36.7% shooting after holding San Diego to 36.5% shooting in a 60-46 victory two days prior — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% from the field. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by 10 or more points. The other troubling aspect for Saint Mary’s tonight is the nine days off since they last played — they could be rusty in this contest, especially when playing on an unfamiliar neutral court. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least seven days between games. While Saint Mary’s was a perfect 16-0 on their home court, they were only 8-6 in their 14 games away from home where they only made 44.4% of their shots. The Broncos are vulnerable to teams who can make 3s — but the Gaels only make 33.3% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 195th in the nation. Saint Mary’s is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they are 1-3-1 ATS In their last 5 games played on a neutral court. The Gaels led the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions — but Santa Clara protects the basketball as they led the conference by only turning the ball over in 15.1% of their conference possessions played away from home. The Broncos have won eight of their last ten games and 14 of their last 19 contests after overcoming some key absences early in the season. Their 6’9 star forward, Josip Vrankic, missed early games after a case of mono, and center Jaden Bediako missed some time in December leaving the team without depth upfront. But Santa Clara is rolling now with their last six losses all being against the big three in the conference in Gonzaga, San Francisco, and this Saint Mary’s team along with Boise State — all four of these teams rank 27 or better in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and will all be in the big dance. The Broncos should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They made 53.4% of their shots against the Pilots — although that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Santa Clara is fourth in the nation by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers — and their shooting proficiency improves to 42.1% from 3-point range when playing on the road this season, ranking the third-best in the country. The Gaels are vulnerable in this regard as they rank 190th in the nation away from home by allowing their opponents to make 34.4% of their shots from behind the arc. The Broncos are efficient inside the arc as well as they make 54.3% of their 2-pointers, ranking 34th in the nation. And Santa Clara’s interior defense is good — they rank 59th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.9% shooting inside the arc. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games on a neutral court as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: After losing by just eight points at Saint Mary’s in January, the Broncos upset the Gaels when they played on February 8th by a 77-72 score as a 3-point underdog. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837) in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (19-13) won their third game in their last four with their 73-60 victory against Georgia Southern as a 5.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Georgia State (16-10) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 65-62 win against Arkansas State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia State was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt — and after a slow 6-9 start to the season with some COVID issues likely impacting those results, the Panthers are on a 10-1 run making them a favorite in many bettors eyes. But I think they are overvalued in this spot against the reigning conference champions — and the Mountaineers match up very well against them. After holding UL-Lafayette to 58 points in their last regular-season game two Fridays ago, the Panthers held the RedWolves to just 35.6% shooting yesterday in what was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. Georgia State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games when playing their second game in eight days, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Georgia State is a dangerous team because they generate extra scoring opportunities. They lead the Sun Belt Conference by rebounding 35.7% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions. But Appalachian State presents a feisty opponent in both of these areas. The Mountaineers are third in the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding and they rank 76th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down just 25.8% of their missed shots. Appalachian State also leads the conference and is 31st in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.5% of their possessions — and that mark improves to just a 14.3% turnover rate when playing on the road against conference opponents. The problem for Georgia State is that they need to generate these additional scoring opportunities because they can’t shoot. The Panthers rank 347th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.6%. They only make 30.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 300th in the country — and their 43.7% shooting percentage inside the arc ranks 346th in the nation. Georgia State is vulnerable against teams who can make 3-pointers. They are 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a rough 39.3% clip from 3-point land from their opponents when they are playing away from home, ranking 341st in the country. Appalachian State can make 3s — they rank fourth in the Sun Belt with a 34.6% mark from downtown. In their last ten games, the Mountaineers were making 35.6% of their 3-pointers — and away from Boone, they made 35.1% of their 3-pointers in conference play. They are led by senior guard Adrian Delph who scores 17.2 Points-Per-Game while nailing 39.0% of his 3-pointers. Appalachian State does not make things easy on their opponent either as they put their opponents on the free-throw line at the 11th lowest rate in the nation. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing the day before. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against conference opponents. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings but it will be the Mountaineers with revenge on their minds after losing the last encounter with the Panthers by a 58-49 score despite playing that game in Boone. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (555) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (556). THE SITUATION: Toronto (34-29) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests after their 103-97 loss to Orlando as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (36-27) has lost three in a row and six of their last seven after a 125-119 loss at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto is undermanned coming into this game with O.G. Anunoby still out and now Fred VanVleet declared out for this contest with his knee injury — but they still have Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent, Jr. along with one of the best coaches in the business in Nick Nurse. The Raptors only made 39.8% of their shots against the Magic which was the worst shooting percentage in their last seven games. Toronto has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Cleveland is dealing with injuries as well with Caris LeVert expected to miss his seventh straight game with los foot injury and Rajon Rondo being out with a toe. The Cavaliers’ recent slide has coincided with being without LeVert — they are thin in their backcourt missing LeVert and Rondo at this point of the season. They did nail 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 27 games. But Cleveland has taken a step or two back on the defensive end of the court as of late — after the 76ers made 54.7% of their shots on Friday, they have let their last three opponents shoot at least 50.6% from the field. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after allowing their last three opponents each shoot at least 47% from the field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing three straight opponents shoot at least 50% from the field. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after losing at leas three games in a row. The Cavs host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games overall.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto will remember getting shellacked by the Cavaliers by a 144-99 score in Cleveland in their last meeting on December 26th. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Toronto-Cleveland ESPN Special with the Toronto Raptors (555) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Binghamton Bears (306211) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306212) in the Quarterfinals of the America East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Binghamton (11-16) has lost three in a row as well as six of their last seven games after their 78-68 loss at Maryland-Baltimore County as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. New Hampshire (15-12) has won three in a row and five of their last seven contests after a 64-48 upset win at UMass-Lowell as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Wildcats host this tournament game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Binghamton has the second-best opponent’s effective field goal percentage in the America East with a 48.7% mark. Their defensive play should keep them competitive in this game. They did allow Maryland-Baltimore County to make 52.8% of their shots earlier this week — but that was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bearcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a loss to a conference rival. They are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They go on the road where they have a 6-8 record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Additionally, Binghamton has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games as an underdog. New Hampshire played their best defensive game in their last five by holding UMass-Lowell to just 37.5% shooting in their upset win earlier this week. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They are 10-3 on their home court -- but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire swept the two regular-season games between these two teams after beating the Bearcats by a 66-62 score at home on February 26th. Binghamton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities when avenging at least two straight losses to their opponent. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Binghamton Bears (306211) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (12-9) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-65 loss at Long Beach State as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. CS-Fullerton (17-10) has lost two in a row with their 75-72 upset loss to UC-Riverside as a 2-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: Cal-Davis has been resilient after setbacks as they are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread. The Aggies play outstanding interior defense — they are 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.6% clip inside the arc. They stay on the road where they are second in the Big West Conference by making 36.8% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from distance against this Titans team that allows their guests to nail 37.5% of their 3-points, the 315th highest mark on a home court in the nation. Cal-Davis is 5-4 on the road while holding their home hosts to just 41% shooting from the field. They are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog. The Aggies are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 range. Furthermore, Cal-Davis is 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog — and they are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their game. CS-Fullerton allowed UC-Riverside to make 55.3% of their shots in their upset loss. The Titans have allowed their last four opponents to make at least 51.9% of their shots. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Furthermore, CS-Fullerton has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss against a Big West opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by six points or less. The Titans have a 10-2 record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. CS-Fullerton has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Cal-Davis will be looking to avenge a 74-58 loss to CS-Fullerton on January 27th. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (727) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (728). THE SITUATION: Boise State (24-6) has won five games in a row with their 73-67 win against Nevada as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Colorado State (23-4) has won two straight games and seven of their last nine with their 66-55 upset win at Utah State as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State allowed the Wolf Pack to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games and tied for their worst in their last 13 contests. They did make 50% of their shots against Nevada which was the fourth time in their last five games where they made at least half their shots. They are making 51.6% of their shots in their last five games. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Boise State goes back on the road where they hold their home hosts to 40.6% shooting which translates into only 59.7 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Colorado State out-rebounded the Aggies by a 43 to 26 margin on Thursday in that victory — but that will be difficult to replicate against this Broncos team. Boise State ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opens to rebounding only 21.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the Mountain West Conference in by rebounding 29.4% of their missed shots. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards. And while Colorado State has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Rams have a 13-1 record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on their home court. Colorado State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State lost the last meeting between these two teams by a 77-74 score despite being a 1-point favorite at home in that game on February 13th. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 10* CBB Boise State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Boise State Broncos (727) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (535) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (536). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (24-39) has lost three games in a row after their 115-112 upset loss as a 6.5-point favorite on Thursday. Charlotte (31-33) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 119-98 upset win at Cleveland as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets may be due for an emotional letdown tonight after pulling off an upset win. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit victory. This team really missed Gordon Hayward who provides the foundation for this team that helps LeMelo Ball and Miles Bridge thrive. The Hornets have lost 11 of their 16 games since Hayward was injured — and they have only won three of their sixteen games since the beginning of February. Charlotte will be undermanned with James Bouknight and Jalen McDaniels out tonight. The Hornets return home where they are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Charlotte has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored. San Antonio’s win-loss record is underachieving what their win probability suggests. They are completely healthy for this one with Romeo Langford and Lonnie Walker upgraded to probable for this contest. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when playing their second game in five days. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 49 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. San Antonio has struggled against good teams — they have a 9-20 record against teams with winning records. But in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record, they are 7-1-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 131-115 loss at home to Charlotte on December 15th where they were 3.5-point home favorites — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the San Antonio Spurs (535) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Missouri State (23-9) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 67-58 victory against Valparaiso yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. Drake (23-9) won their sixth straight game with their 65-52 victory against Southern Illinois as a 3-point favorite in their quarterfinals contest yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Missouri State outlasted the Crusaders despite only making 44.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Not only are the Bears the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but they rank 24th in the nation in that metric. They are 20th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9%. They might have the two best players in the conference in wing Isiaih Mosley and 6’9 big man Gaige Prim. Together, this inside-out pair combine to average 36.3 points per game. The Bears are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a point spread loss. Missouri State has not covered the point spread in two straight games and four of their last five contest. The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Missouri State has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — including covering the point spread in eight of these last ten circumstances. This is a fundamentally sound team that ranks 24th in the nation in turnover rate on offense while limiting their opponents to rebounding just 23.6% of their missed shots, ranking 34th in the nation. On the road, they are 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation respectively by nailing 38.1% of their 3-pointers and 54.8% of their shots inside the arc when playing away from home. They also lead the conference by holding their opponents to 47.1% shooting inside the arc — and they rank 15th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 45.3% mark with their 2-point shots. These characteristics have helped the Bears cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when favored. The Tigers are vulnerable against teams who can make 3s — but the Bulldogs are last in the Missouri Valley Conference by making only 30.8% of their 3-pointers. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover them in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Bulldogs have seen their last two games combine for 122 or fewer points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Drake is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They are also 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri State swept the Bulldogs in their two meetings this season after beating them on the road by a 66-62 score as a 3.5-point underdog on February 9th. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss this season — and they have failed all 3 opportunities to avenge an upset loss this year. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). THE SITUATION: Butler (13-17) lost their fourth game in a row with their 64-56 loss at Marquette as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. Villanova (22-7) won their sixth game in their last seven with a 76-74 victory against Providence as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: It is Senior Day for Butler this afternoon -- and hosting the Wildcats gives them an opportunity to end their regular season on a high note before the Big East Tournament starts next week. Head coach LaVall Jordan’s team is better than their record with eight of their 13 losses in conference play being by seven points or less. They should play well this afternoon. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Butler has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after losing at least three in a row. They return home where they are 9-6 this season — but they have impressive victories against Marquette, Creighton, and Oklahoma. They hold their opponents to just 41.8% shooting which translates into 64.5 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Villanova may not be completely dialed-in for this game with zero chance to claim the Big East regular-season title. They are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won 15 of their last 18 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 contests. They are just 10-6 away from home this season where they boast a 12-1 record. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Butler will have extra motivation to redeem themselves from an 82-42 loss at Villanova on January 16th in what was their worst game of the season. They shot 30.8% from the field in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 59.6% of their shots which included them nailing 12 of their 19 shots (63.2%) from behind the arc. History is not likely to repeat itself since Villanova makes 41.3% of their 3s at home but sees that number plummet to a 33.1% clip on the road, ranking 185th in the nation. Butler has held their opponents to just a 29% clip from 3-point range since that embarrassing loss — and they hold their guests to just 28.1% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 24th best in the country. These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation with Villanova averaging 63.0 possessions per game (345th slowest in the nation) and Butler just behind them at 63.5 possessions per game (341st in the nation). Finally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered 11 of their last 14 home games when avenging a loss on the road and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Big East Underdog of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Morehead State (22-10) has won two of their last three games after their 73-56 win as an 8-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Belmont (24-6) has won 11 of their last 12 games with their 87-67 victory against Tennessee State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles advanced in this tournament yesterday despite making only 39.1% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Morehead State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Eagles play stout defense which keeps them in this game. They rank second in the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they top the conference in that metric when playing away from home. They are led by 6’10 sophomore John Broome who is sixth in the nation in block rate. Facing Belmont is always a challenge since they lead the nation by making 61.4% of their shots inside the arc. Morehead State leads the Ohio Valley with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7% when playing away from home. Broome helps them play very tough interior defense: they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.7% shooting percentage inside the arc — and they led the conference with their opponents only making 43.8% of their 2-pointers. In their two meetings this season, the Bruins did not shoot better than 45.9% inside the arc in either game — and they converted only 31 of these 72 shots for an underwhelming 43.1% mark with their 2-pointers. On the other end of the court, Morehead State is dangerous from 3-point land with four players in their rotation who all nail at least 35% of their shots from behind the arc. They are second in the conference with a 35.0% shooting percentage from distance. The Bruins’ perimeter defense is an area of vulnerability as they allow their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots in conference play, ranking 10th in the Ohio Valley. Belmont played their best defensive game in their last five by holding Tennessee State to just 37.5% shooting. And their 56.2% field goal percentage was their best mark in their last four games and second-best in their last eight contests. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Belmont can struggle against opponents who are athletic and offer length to combat their movement and shooting on offense. They lack a Plan B if their interior shots are not falling. They only make 31.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 246th in the nation. And they only pull down 23.1% of their missed shots away from home, ranking 310th in the country. They do force turnovers in 21.0% of their opponent's possessions, the 50th best mark in the country — but this will be the third time the Eagles have faced their pressure. In their 83-74 victory at home against the Bruins on January 20th, Morehead State only turned the ball over seven times representing just 10.6% of their possessions. They did turn the ball over 16 times in the rematch which helps explain why Belmont was able to eke out a 48-47 victory at home as a 9-point favorite. The Bruins did not cover the point spread in their four meetings against Morehead State and Murray State — the two most athletic teams in the conference. Belmont has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games away from home after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Morehead State had a 39-29 lead at the 14:25 minute mark of the second half in their meeting last month before getting outscored in Nashville by a 19-8 rock fight to close out that game. They should be motivated to redeem themselves from that setback — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games when avenging a loss on the road. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Southern Illinois Salukis (857) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (858) in the Quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (16-14) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 62-60 loss at Drake as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Drake (22-9) won their seventh-straight game with their victory against the Salukis. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SALUKIS PLUS THE POINTS: Southern Illinois should respond to their narrow loss to the Bulldogs with a strong effort. Southern Illinois is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Missouri Valley Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Salukis play hard-nosed defense while playing at a snail’s pace — and they are dangerous with their 3-point shooting. The 62.5 possessions per game in their contests this season is the 350th fewest in the nation — and getting the points in lower-scoring games does offer increased value. Southern Illinois ranks third in the Missouri Valley in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 23rd in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down just 23.0% of their missed shots. Their 36.0% shooting percentage from 3-point range is 64th best in the country — and they lead the conference by nailing 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home in conference play. The Bulldogs are seventh in the conference by allowing their opponents to shoot 35.1% from 3-point range — and they rank 297th in the nation with their opponents making 36.9% of their 3-pointers when they are playing away from home. The Salukis are dangerous dogs who are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as an underdog. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Drake may be caught looking ahead to a possible semifinals showdown with Missouri State rather than put all their attention on a conference opponent they have defeated twice this season. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread loss. Drake is solid and fundamentally sound with a good point guard in Roman Penn. This makes them good underdogs but unreliable favorites — they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when laying the points. They are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs give away too many points as they are last in the Missouri Valley in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — and they rank 324th in the country in putting opponents on the line when playing away from home. Drake does not hit 3s either — they only hit 29.2% of their 3-pointers when playing on the road against conference opponents. Furthermore, Drake is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on a neutral court when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois lost both their games to the Bulldogs by three combined points — so they will be chippy and confident to finally defeat this team. The Salukis have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when looking to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent. Don’t be surprised if the Salukis pull the upset — but please take the points for some insurance in what should be another close game between these two teams. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Special with the Southern Illinois Salukis (857) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). THE SITUATION: Chicago (39-24) has lost three games in a row after their 130-124 upset loss as a 1.5-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (38-25) has won their last two games with their 120-119 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: After eking out their showdown against the Heat on Wednesday, the reigning NBA champions may be due for a letdown on the road tonight. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 road games after a narrow win by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Bucks are playing at a fast pace right now which has helped them score at least 120 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 120 points in at least three straight contests. But this increased tempo has come at the expense of their discipline on defense as they have allowed these last five opponents to make 46.4% of their shots which has resulted in 118.6 Points-Per-Game. In their last seven games, Milwaukee has a Defensive Rating of 28th in the league — far below their 13th Defensive Rating for the season. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Chicago allowed the Hawks to make 52.4% of their shots last night which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last nine games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a loss by six points or less — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Chicago is playing without rest tonight — but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games playing the second game in back-to-back days. And while their five starters combined to play over 164 minutes last night, they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games when their starters logged in at least 160 combined minutes the day before. The Bulls have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago is not at full strength with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso both on the shelf — but Zack LaVine has returned to action. Head coach Billy Donovan may limit LaVine’s minutes tonight to rest his knee — but he is not on the injury report this evening. Rookie Ayo Dosunmu has stepped up after these injuries — and the team still has DeMar DeRozan who has been playing at an MVP level and recently scored at least 30 points in ten straight contests. The Bucks are injured as well with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton out — and their depth may be further challenged with George Hill questionable with a neck injury. The rap on the Bulls is that they fold versus the best teams in the league — but they are 5-5 ATS in their ten games this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games versus teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing The Citadel Bulldogs (847) plus the points versus the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (848) in the first round of the Southern Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: The Citadel (12-17) limps into the conference tournament having lost four of their last five games after their 94-59 loss to Furman as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. East Tennessee State (15-16) has won two of their last three games after a 73-69 upset victory at UNC-Greensboro as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: The best thing for The Citadel is that they can quickly get the bad taste out of their mouth from their 35-point loss to Furman by making noise in the conference tournament. They allowed the Paladins to make 57.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Citadel only made 36.1% of their shots themselves which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Head coach Duggar Baucom should get a better performance from his team this afternoon. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Southern Conference rival. Additionally, The Citadel has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a loss by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. If you want to invest in a team that has a player that can put his teammates on his back, then you will like The Citadel with Hayden Brown. The senior is scoring 18.5 Points-Per-Game while pulling down 9.4 Rebounds-Per-Game — and he makes 59.4% of his shots inside the arc. Brown helps the Bulldogs to make 51.9% of their 2-pointers which ranks inside the top-100 in the country — and the thin Buccaneers front court allows their opponents to make 55.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 339th in the country. East Tennessee State has allowed their conference opponents to make 57.3% of their 2-pointers which is last in the Southern Conference. Brown’s shooting inside the arc is the key that opens up “Duggar Ball” which is The Citadel playing at a frenetic pace while launching tons of 3s. The Bulldogs’ games average 71.0 possessions per game, ranking 31st most in the nation. The Citadel takes 50.4% of their shots from behind the arc, the fourth-most in the country — and made 3-pointers account for 42.4% of their points which is the sixth-highest percentage in the nation. East Tennessee State will be accommodated this approach — they rank 352nd in the country with their opponents taking 47.0% of their shots from 3-point range, and these opponents are generating 38.6% of their points from made 3s, the 17th highest clip in the nation. The Citadel made 36.1% of their 3-pointers in conference play — but what is intriguing about this contest is that they led the Southern Conference by nailing 40.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. East Tennessee State ranks ninth in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allowed their conference opponents to make 35.9% of their 3-pointers when they were playing away from home, the sixth-highest mark in the conference. The Buccaneers made 49.0% of their shots on Sunday against the Spartans which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But East Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. And in their last 17 games when playing in just their second game in seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these contests. The Buccaneers are just 7-10 away from home while getting outscored by -5.1 Points-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests - but The Citadel will have revenge on their minds after losing 77-67 in the last meeting on February 19th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court — and East Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Matinee with The Citadel Bulldogs (847) plus the points versus the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189) in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (19-9) had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 76-69 loss at the Florida Gulf Coast as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Central Arkansas (11-19) has won two of their last three games with their 74-73 win in a pick ‘em contest against Stetson in the opening round of this tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should respond with a stronger effort tonight as they have covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are a strong defensive team that ranks 97th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 37th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage fueled by a stingy perimeter defense that limits their opponents to 28.9% shooting from behind the arc, the tenth best mark in the country. They also rank 30th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.4% of their missed shots. They return home where they are a perfect 14-0 with a net point differential of +20.3 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 36.5% shooting at home which is translating into only 54.1 PPG. The concern with this Jacksonville team is their shooting — but they are much better at home where they make 49.9% of their shots which is generating 74.4 PPG. The Dolphins are second in the Atlantic Sun by nailing 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play when at home. Jacksonville also does a great job of crashing the glass — they rank 34th in the nation by rebounding 33.6% of their missed shots which that mark rising to a conference-best 34.6% against Atlantic Sun foes. The Dolphins are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. Now they go on the road where they are 3-13 this season with a -18.2 PPG net point differential. The Purple Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. They rank 337th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing their opponents to make 55.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 348th in the nation. Inexplicably, head coach Anthony Boone has them play at the 20th fastest pace in the nation which is resulting in an average of 72.4 possessions per game, the 12th most in the country. Yet this team does not force turnovers, or crash the glass, or shoot (or make) a bunch of 3s — so the increased pace is not accentuating the things they try to do well. Central Arkansas is 338th in the nation by making only 29.6% of their missed shots. They are 344th in the nation run getting to the free-throw line. The Dolphins should get plenty of fast-break scoring chances in transition which is another reason why I am not as worried about their shooting tonight. Jacksonville outrebounds their opponents by +7.6 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are looking to avenge a 79-59 loss at Jacksonville as an 11.5-point underdog on January 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (712) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (711). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 74-69 win against Vanderbilt as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Auburn (25-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-62 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State needs a victory tonight to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume — I expect a strong effort. They allowed the Commodores to make 46.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Bulldogs only made 1 of 6 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — and that came on the heels of them going 0-14 from 3-point range in their previous game at South Carolina. But Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not making at least 20% of their 3-point attempts in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not making at least 20% of their shots from behind the arc in two straight games. This team only makes 30.2% of their 3-pointers on the season — but they are much better at home with a 35.2% clip from distance. What the Bulldogs do well is crash the glass and get to the line — and these strengths should expose weaknesses of this Tigers’ team. Mississippi State gets to the free-throw line at the 18th best rate in the nation — and Auburn ranks 301st in the country in putting their opponents on the line. The Bulldogs are 31st in the nation by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots — and that mark improves to a 36.4% slip when playing at home, ranking 21st in the country. The Tigers allow their home hosts to rebound 32.5% of their missed shots, ranking 296th in the nation. Mississippi State is 14-2 at home with signature wins against Alabama and Arkansas. They have a +13.5 net point differential at home where they hold their opponents to 40.9% shooting which translates into only 62.2 Points-Per-Game — and they nail 49.9% of their shots at home. The Bulldogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Auburn can’t shoot 3s either — they rank 276th in the nation with a 31.8% clip from behind the arc which drops to a 29.4% mark when playing on the road. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a point spread loss. They are 10-4 on the road — but they only make 42.7% of their shots in those games which lowers their season 79.1 PPG mark by -3.2 PPG. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Mississippi State is 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games at home as an underdog. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (712) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (20-8) had won four of five games before their 56-49 loss at North Texas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Old Dominion (12-17) won their second-straight game with their 83-63 win against Florida International as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech should respond with a strong effort tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. And while the Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Louisiana Tech ranks second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 45.0% shooting inside the arc. It will be difficult for the Monarchs to score tonight as they only hit 30.1% of their shots from behind the arc, the 320th worst mark in the nation. The Bulldogs return home where they are 12-3 this season with a net point differential of +14.9 Points-Per-Game. Louisiana Tech holds their guests to just 39.5% shooting which translates into 65.8 PPG. They also make 47.4% of their shots at home which is generating 80.7 PPG. This team ranks 62nd in the nation by making 55.1% of their shots inside the arc — and this proficiency should help them pull away in this game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Louisiana Tech is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Old Dominion comes off one of their best games of the season where they nailed 57.4% of their shots while holding the Golden Panthers to just 40% shooting. But the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a game where they shot at least 57% from the field while holding their opponent to no higher than a 43% field goal percentage. Furthermore, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. And while this is their third game since Thursday, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their third game in seven days. The Monarchs can’t shoot — they rank 286th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. Now after playing their last two games at home, Old Dominion goes back on the road where their effective field goal percentage drops to 44.9%, ranking 306th in the nation. The Monarchs are just 3-13 away from home while making only 41% of their shots which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (618) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (617). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (17-11) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 90-71 loss at Alabama as an 11-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri (10-19) has lost five games in a row with their 75-55 loss at LSU as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: South Carolina allowed the Crimson Tide to make 47.5% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. South Carolina has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 11-4 this season. They should play better on defense tonight as they hold their guests to just 41.5% shooting which results in 68.3 Points-Per-Game. The weakness of Frank Martin’s team is their shooting — but while they only make 44.5% of their shots at home, they have been shooting better as of late with a 47.5% clip in their last five games. But what the Gamecocks do well is create more scoring opportunities for themselves to get their shots to fall. South Carolina is 22nd in the nation by pulling down 34.4% of their missed shots — and they rank 33rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. These characteristics should give them a big edge against the Tigers who are vulnerable in both these areas. Missouri allows their opponents to pull down 31.0% of their missed shots, ranking 289th in the nation. Mizzou also turns the ball over in 21.4% of their possessions, ranking 328th in the country. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Missouri has fled to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after a point spread loss. The Tigers’ loss in Baton Rouge came on the heels of an 80-61 loss at home to Tennessee — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-11 with a -14.9 net point differential. Missouri allows their home hosts to make 47.6% of their shots — an ominous sign when facing the Gamecocks team. They also only make 40.2% of their shots on the road which results in just 59.7 PPG. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games as an underdog. Missouri has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and South Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. 10* CBB Missouri-South Carolina ESPNU Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (618) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (553) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (554). THE SITUATION: Toronto (32-27) has lost two straight and four of their last five games after a 127-100 loss at Atlanta as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (32-29) ended their two-straight losing streak with their 126-123 victory as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto played one of their worst games of the season against the Hawks. They only made 40.0% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 15 games. The Raptors allowed Atlanta to make 57.8% field goal percentage which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last Toronto has also bounced back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 11 games after a point spread loss, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 9 of these contests. Toronto has not been competitive in their last two games as they began the weekend with a 125-93 loss in Charlotte. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after losing two straight games by 15 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when favored in all situations. Toronto will be undermanned tonight with O.G. Anunoby out with a finger injury and Fred VanVleet questionable with a knee injury — but they still have Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent, Jr. to lead the team for head coach Nick Nurse. They face a seriously depleted Nets team that will be without the injured Kevin Durant and Joe Harris along with Kyrie Irving ineligible to play in New York for another few days due to the vaccination requirements and Ben Simmons still not ready to take the court. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread 8 straight games at home after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Back at home in the Barclays Center, the Nets are just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as an underdog. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Nets rank just 21st in the NBA this month by scoring 108.7 points per 100 possessions — and they have been even worse on defense by ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing 118 points per 100 possession this month.

FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and Toronto has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against winning teams. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Toronto Raptors (553) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). THE SITUATION: Charleston (16-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped with an 80-79 loss at Drexel as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Hofstra (20-10) has won seven of their last eight games with their 83-67 victory against William & Mary as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Charleston should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after a loss. And while this is the Cougars’ fourth straight game on the road, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after playing at least two straight games on the road. Head coach Pat Kelsey’s team plays at the second-highest pace in the nation. They also rank 12th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots — and offensive rebounding travels. Charleston is scoring 80.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games on 48.7% shooting. They have a 7-7 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Charleston has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games against teams with a winning record. Hofstra has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after a straight-up win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Hofstra has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They are now 11-2 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. Furthermore, the Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored in all situations.

FINAL TAKE: The College of Charleston will be looking to avenge a 76-73 loss at Hofstra as a 2-point underdog on January 27th. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated with revenge. 25* CBB Underdog of the Month with the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). THE SITUATION: Dallas (35-25) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 114-109 loss at Utah as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (43-17) ended their two-game losing streak with a 132-95 win at Portland as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The silver lining from Dallas’ loss on Friday was the play of their recent acquisitions in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting and Davis Bertrans nailed five of his eight shots from behind the arc for 17 points. These two players give head coach Jason Kidd the potential for a much-needed scoring punch off the bench to help out Luka Doncic. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have been very reliable road warriors against good teams with Doncic — they are 45-20-1 ATS in their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also held the Trail Blazers to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. The Warriors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a double-digit win. Golden State is undermanned tonight with Klay Thompson out with an illness and Andre Iguodala out with a sore back. They remain without Draymond Green who is recovering from a calf injury. The Warriors’ elite defense drop to 11th in the league since the Green injury. And while the Mavericks rank a surprising fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season under Kidd, Golden State’s offense ranks just 22nd in the league when facing a top-ten defense. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be motivated to avenge an embarrassing 130-92 loss to the Warriors on January 25th. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 opportunities at same-season revenge. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Golden State. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (21-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-69 upset loss at Clemson as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Louisville (12-15) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 70-63 loss at North Carolina as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest allowed the Tigers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games and the third-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Demon Deacons only made 41.0% of their shots as well which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 16 games. Wake Forest should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Demon Deacons rank second in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. They return home where they have a 14-2 record with a +15.0 net point differential. Wake Forest holds their guests to just a 38.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in 67.2 Points-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons are nailing 49.0% of their shots on their home court which is generating 82.2 PPG. Wake Forest is usually a very good shooting team — they rank 16th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% fueled by a 57.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking fourth-best in the country. The Cardinals are vulnerable with their interior defense as they rank ninth in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 51.6% of their 2-pointers. Louisville ranks 12th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wake Forest can get into trouble against teams that force turnovers — the Deacons rank second-to-last in the ACC with a 19.9% turnover rate. But the Cardinals also rank second-to-last in the conference by forcing turnovers in only 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Demon Deacons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Louisville continues their lost season that saw the parting of ways with head coach Chris Mack midseason. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And while the Cardinals have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are just 4-8 this season. They are making only 40.3% of their shots away from home which is resulting in just 64.6 PPG. Louisville is just eleventh in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 12th in the conference — and their 67.1% free throw rate that is last in the ACC will not help them cover the point spread. The Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest will be looking to avenge a 73-69 loss to the Cardinals on December 29th. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge against their opponent. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). THE SITUATION: Binghamton (11-14) has lost four of their last five games after a 66-49 loss to Vermont as a 15-point underdog on Wednesday. New Hampshire (13-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 83-55 win against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Binghamton only made 30.5% of their shots against the Catamounts on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort of the season. They should play better this afternoon as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. Binghamton has also covered the point spread in 8 straight-road games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread loss. Their solid play on the defensive end of the court should keep them competitive in this game. The Bearcats are third in the America East Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 32.9% shooting clip from behind the arc which is best in the conference — and they also lead the America East with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. They go back on the road where they are 6-6 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games. Additionally, Binghamton has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New Hampshire made 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort of the season — so I  do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a conference opponent. New Hampshire has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Bearcats can struggle on defense as they rank only eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 9-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire won the first meeting between these two teams on February 12th by a 69-60 score in a pick ‘em match-up — but the Bearcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 opportunities this season to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB America East Underdog of the Year with the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (18-10) has lost two games in a row after their 55-52 upset loss to Texas State as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. UT-Arlington (11-16) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven after their 59-53 loss at Troy as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: South Alabama has only scored 103 points in their last two games — but they should find the form that has tagged ranked second in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and tops in the conference with a 51.9% effective field goal percentage against the Mavericks. UT-Arlington ranks 11th in the Sun Belt Conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage — and they rank 227th in that metric when playing away from home with opponent’s posting an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. But they have also covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. South Alabama has played their last two games Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They stay at home where they are 8-3 this season with a +18.9 net points differential. The Jaguars hold their guests to just 57.9 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd on their home court with an effective field goal percentage of 56.0% while ranking in the top-74 in the nation in both 3-point shooting and shooting inside the arc. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Jaguars have also covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. South Alabama ranks second in the Sun Belt with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% — this is a balanced team on both ends of the court. UT-Arlington held the Trojans to host 36.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. UT-Arlington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. The Mavericks have played their last two games Under the Total by only allowing 58 and 59 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -8.6 net point differential. They only make 40.1% of their shots on the road which results in only 63.5 PPG. UT-Arlington struggles with shooting the basketball — they rank 321st in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama will be looking to avenge an 89-87 upset loss to the Mavericks on December 30th as a 2.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 75 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Monroe Warhawks (869) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (870). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (13-16) has lost four games in a row after their 82-70 loss at Georgia State as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (11-15) has lost six games in a row with their 82-69 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Monroe allowed the Panthers to make 47.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage in their last four games. The Warhawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. UL-Monroe has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row to Sun Belt rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 road games after losing at least two in a row to conference opponents. The Warhawks stay on the road where they are 6-9 this season — and they are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they are 4-1-1 ATS In their last 6 games as an underdog overall. Georgia Southern made 44.8% of their shots against the Ragin’ Cajuns in what was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But the Eagles are still only making 38.8% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 60.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 12th in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Georgia Southern also turns the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions, ranking 341st in the nation — so they can’t afford to shoot so poorly if they are not even getting to a shot before coughing the ball up. UL-Monroe forces turnovers in 19.5% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 116th in the nation. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. And in their last 7 games when playing with only one day of rest, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. And in their last 5 games against losing teams, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread all 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Monroe will be motivated to avenge a 50-45 upset loss at home to Georgia Southern where they were a 1-point home favorite. The Warhawks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite to their opponent. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the UL-Monroe Warhawks (869) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (791) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (792). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (14-13) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 83-80 upset loss at Idaho as a 4.5-point favorite. Northern Colorado (16-12) has won six of their last seven contests with their 77-70 win against Idaho State as a 14-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington played their worst defensive game in their last nine contests by allowing the Vandals to make 54.4% of their shots. But the Eagles are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread setback. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games after winning two of their last three games. They are hitting 48.5% of their shots in their last five games. They stay on the road where they are 7-10 this season — but they are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Northern Colorado’s victory against Idaho State finished above the 144 point total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing an Over in their last game. The Bears have scored 83 and 77 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in each of their last two games. They are 8-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when favored. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Eastern Washington will be motivated to avenge an 87-83 loss at home to Northern Colorado as a 2-point home underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 20* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Eastern Washington Eagles (791) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (15-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 84-79 loss to Winthrop as a 2-point underdog. Gardner-Webb (15-11) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-68 victory at Presbyterian as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: UNC-Asheville allowed Winthrop to nail 50.9% of their shots over the weekend in what was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Winthrop made 12 of their 30 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was a surprise when considering that the Bulldogs rank sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 28.5% clip from 3-point range this season. UNC-Asheville is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. And while this is just their second game since Thursday of last week, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in seven days. On the positive side, UNC-Asheville made at least 50% of their shots for their third straight game with their 53.2% clip against the Eagles over the weekend. In their last five games, the Bulldogs are making 48.3% of their shots which has bumped up their scoring average +5.3 Points-Per-Game to a 79.8 PPG mark over that span. This team also ranks 32nd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line where they then make 73.9% of their freebies, ranking in the top-100 in the nation. The Runnin’ Bulldogs rank 278th in the nation in putting opponents on the free-throw line. UNC-Asheville goes on the road where they are 7-6 this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Gardner-Webb has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are no slouches defending the 3-point shot either — they rank seventh in the nation in opponent’s field goal percentage behind the arc. UNC-Asheville is vulnerable to teams who crash the glass — but Gardner Webb ranks only seventh in the conference in offensive rebounding when playing at home. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Gardner Webb has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: UNC-Asheville will be motivated to avenge a 61-55 upset loss at home to the Runnin’ Bulldogs as a 1.5-point favorite on January 27th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big South Game of the Month with the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (17-6) won their fifth straight game with a 61-44 victory at Fresno State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Boise State (21-6) has won four of their last five games with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: After a narrow one-point loss at Colorado State, San Diego State has gotten on a roll by winning their last four games by double-digits. A discovered scoring touch has triggered the upsurge in play for head coach Brian Dutcher’s team. They are shooting 49.0% from the field in their last five games. They had shot 62.5% and 51.7% from the field in their previous two games before posting a 47.9% field goal percentage in their win against the Bulldogs. The Aztecs should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road against a Mountain West Conference rival. San Diego State leads the Mountain West in offensive rebounding rate — and they are very tough to beat if they are hitting their shots. This Aztecs team boasts the top-ranked defensive in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the nation — and this defense travels. San Diego State holds their home hosts to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which translates into only 60.7 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 120s. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boise State played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Aggies to just 43.4% shooting on Saturday. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. Boise State’s defense has taken a step back as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.0% of their shots. This is concerning because this Broncos team cannot shoot. Boise State ranks 349th in the country by making only 64.5% of their free throws — a troubling characteristic for a team expected to be in a close game. And they only make 32.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court, ranking 246th in the nation. One of the power rankings systems I use lists the Broncos as the 28th best team in the nation — but those analytics drop them to 60th in the country when exclusively evaluating teams playing on their home court. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games. The Broncos lack depth with head coach Leon Rice relying mostly on seven players — but that seventh player, Name Smith, is questionable tonight with an undisclosed injury.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams met on January 22nd with Boise State winning by a 42-37 score as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Aztecs were rusty coming off a two-week hiatus due to COVID outbreaks — and they only shot 28.1% from the field while missing 15 of their 19 shots from behind the arc. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). THE SITUATION: Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-63 loss at South Carolina State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina-Central (15-11) has won four games in a row with their 84-79 win against Delaware State as a 12-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Eastern Shore only made 37.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Hawks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. And while they have lost four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing four or five of their last six contests. After being one of ten Division I programs that did not play a single game last season because of the COVID pandemic, many college basketball prognosticators projected Maryland-Eastern Shore to be the worst team in the country this season. Not so — this group beat Fordham in double-overtime earlier this season. They lost by just nine points at Connecticut. Granted, this is a team that is still just 3-7 in conference play — but head coach Jason Crafton has done a fine job with his squad. And his team does some things that make them intriguing road warriors. For starters, they are one of the best teams in the nation in forcing turnovers. The Hawks rank 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. In Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play, they lead the league by forcing turnovers in 26.3% of their opponents' possessions. The Eagles are very vulnerable in this department — they rank 238th in the nation by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their opponent’s possessions. In conference play, North Carolina-Central turns the ball over 24.3% of the time. This defensive pressure helps Maryland-Eastern Shore boast the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play using one of the analytics formulas I track — and they are second in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road using those metrics. The Hawks also do a couple of things that make them dangerous. They are third in the conference by rebounding 31.7% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They also nail 36% of their 3-point shots on the road in conference play. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road. And while this is their second game since last Monday, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing second games in seven days. Furthermore, Maryland-Eastern Shore is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Eagles are considered one of the favorites to win the MEAC despite COVID limiting them to just 13 practices all season last year. The Eagles are not a great defensive team by conference standards. They rank seventh in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking remains seventh of the eight teams in the conference in that m metric when playing at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina-Central won the first meeting between these two teams by a 75-63 score as a 3-point favorite on the road. The Eagles made 11 of their 25 shots (44%) from behind the arc which is a number they are not likely to replicate since they rank 276th in the nation by making only 31.6% of their 3-point shots. Tellingly, North Carolina-Central committed 18 turnovers in that game while turning the ball over in 27.3% of their possessions against the Hawks’ pressure. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). Best of luck for us — Frank.